NUGE ON THE RUN

The 1995-96 season had a major impact on the decade that would follow for the Oilers. Ron Low, Glen Sather, Bruce MacGregor, Barry Fraser and the others involved in procurement and evaluation had managed to gather a lot of young talent. The key of course is to keep the right people, send away players who are duplicates in exchange for useful parts, and push toward Stanley. How important is it to keep the right players?

OILERS 1995-96 FORWARDS 25 & UNDER

That’s an amazing list. Truly. If the Oilers had been able to retain Doug Weight, Jason Arnott, Todd Marchant, Miro Satan and Ryan Smyth—just those five—the next decade could have been very different. Weight hung around through 2001 summer, we saw so many great moments. Arnott got traded in 1998 for Billy Guerin, and that was a very good trade. However, Guerin lasted only 211 games before being traded to Boston. Marchant & Smyth spent real time with Edmonton, Miroslav Satan did not and there was no return on investment. I’ve been thinking about that mid-90’s team lately, about the promise of that team, and how costly it was to get poor return on Miro Satan and nothing from Jason Bonsignore.

Peter Chiarelli has been sending away assets every summer since 2015 and we now reach a point where some of the prospects are going to have to replace players like Taylor Hall and Jordan Eberle. The youngsters need to show themselves as NHL-ready right now.

OILERS 2016-17 FORWARDS 25 & UNDER

  • The top end is young, real and spectacular.
  • We can also (now) add Ryan Strome, who was 23 last season and went 69gp, 13-17-30.
  • Who are your best five from this list? My five: Connor McDavid, Leon Draisaitl, Ryan Nugent-Hopkins, Jesse Puljujarvi and Ryan Strome. Your list?
  • Zack Kassian is an interesting name here. We (I) think of him as an older player, but he could hang around awhile. Here’s one: Who is Kassian’s closest comparable from the 1995-96 team? Scott Thornton? I don’t have an answer.
  • There are some players who are in similar spots on each of these teams, including Ryan Smyth and Jesse Puljujarvi.
  • McDavid/Draisiatl and Weight/Arnott are both fabulous foundation sets, but McDavid’s age is such a crushing advantage. Holy lord.
  • If Leon Draisaitl has a Jason Arnott career, would you consider it music?
  • Marchant & Satan were dandy bookends, don’t see the current group having those two. Maybe Kailer Yamamoto saves the day.
  • My wild card? Anton Slepyshev. I hope he gets a full shot with skill.

TRADING THE NUGE

We’ve been down this road before, looking for solutions by moving heaven and earth to keep him on the roster beyond 2017-18. Here’s one way they could do it and it would require the cap to increase only a little:

  • This model involves squeezing all of the RFA’s and it probably isn’t realistic.
  • Keeping Nuge probably means trading Andrej Sekera, which is not a fabulous result. I don’t believe Milan Lucic or Kris Russell are as likely to be deal (Sekera will have played three seasons with Edmonton).
  • If Strome proves he can handle center and score, I expect the die is cast.
  • One other option? The cap goes up in a big way.
  • The final option? Jesse Puljujarvi, the last of the bonus babies, gets dealt. I consider this and the Sekera trade as being the least attractive options.

THE RETURN ON NUGE

I think it happens next spring or summer, and don’t see a Justin Faulk return. If I had to take a guess, it would be someone like Joel Eriksson Ek, Sam Bennett, Christian Dvorak. Young and talented centers who might be available. If Nuge plays with McDavid for much of this season, and that could happen, perhaps he posts 60 points and becomes a very attractive trade item. Kills me to be saying this but that’s probably a smart way to proceed. Keeping Nuge is the right way to go but I just can’t see it from here. You?

COLLEGE FREE AGENCY

It’s been a slow road so far in college free agency. Dominic Toninato was one of the players I mentioned as being an interesting option for the Oilers, he landed with the Colorado Avalanche and that’s probably a good fit for the young man. Goalie Christian Frey and defender Ian Brady signed with Iowa (also AHL). Defender Connor Clifton is a talented player, he signed an AHL deal with the Providence Bruins. There are also several ECHL signings but the heart of the free-agent class is still out there.

BUILDING UP THE MIDDLE

Peter Chiarelli is building up the middle. I think  it’s the right thing to do. I also believe Ryan Nugent-Hopkins is an important part of a possible future. I get several comments via dm and email saying “get rid of Lucic and Russell!” and maybe that’s what next summer brings. I don’t think it’s going to happen that way. The one wrinkle the might work is the Andrej Sekera angle and it isn’t a bargain either.

I’ve been worried about a Nuge trade since Peter Chiarelli arrived. I worried at first that he and Todd McLellan would trade RNH before they saw him good. I am fairly certain both men now see what he is and what he can be for this team they are building.

Peter Chiarelli and Todd McLellan are in a helluva spot. The barn is on fire and the guns and pitch forks are waiting outside. If you have a way out of this, for goodness sake speak up!

 

 

 

written by

The author didn‘t add any Information to his profile yet.
Related Posts

107 Responses to "NUGE ON THE RUN"

  1. Oilin4 says:

    I don’t see it. In the end, I think the organization will decide it’s choose one of Maroon or RNH and trades RNH to make room for Maroon.

  2. DBO says:

    Thanks for always delivering great posts LT! So want that balance pic.

    Is Sekera still missing or traded next year on your roster? Hurts to add another 5.5, and honestly the Russell deal will be a huge anchor. Hard to imagine they keep Nuge, but i hope they do

  3. Lowetide says:

    DBO:
    Thanks for always delivering great posts LT! So want that balance pic.

    Is Sekera still missing or traded next year on your roster? Hurts to add another 5.5, and honestly the Russell deal will be a huge anchor. Hard to imagine they keep Nuge, but i hope they do

    In my example, Sekera is dealt. It’s a terrible deal with the devil. The better play is Lucic or Russell, but I can’tsee it. Russell would be one year into a four-year deal and have a NMC. They could ask, but very much doubt Russell complies.

    Lucic same thing. He has miles to go before anything lifts on his NMC. I think Nuge goes if Strome can play center. If he can’t, maybe Strome and Maroon go, Nuge stays and Yamamoto ascends.

  4. russ99 says:

    Miro Satan is still a sore spot. I saw him play in the old IHL with the Detroit Vipers and was convinced of his talent. Still have my #18 copper and blue sweater in the closet.

    Sekera has a full NMC for the season after this one, it changes to a limited NTC in July 2019. Unless there’s performance fall off after the injury, he’s an Oiler next September. It’s the summer after he could be moved along with Russell and our young D need those two years so we don’t end up with one good pairing in 19-20. Jeez, 2020 is only a few years away?

    I’d also think with the shift to the McDavid core, responsibilities shift to keeping good players from that core. I’d rather spend to keep Benning, Nurse and 2 of Caggiula, Strome and Skeptshev and their support players, than keep RNH, unless he shows a lot more maturity this year and makes the decision to move on more difficult.

    I get it, it’s hard to let go of favorites, see Miro Satan above, but the rebuild group had their shot albeit one soiled by mismanagement and it’s time to focus on the next group, which is pretty damn good.

  5. Jordan says:

    There are other options, but it does hurt the depth at other positions.

    My preference is to let Maroon go and to trade Nurse, and continue to cheap out at other roles.

    Not expecting it to happen.

  6. DBO says:

    Lowetide,

    That hurts. Gotta hope for big Canadian dollar increase to help the cap!

    If we downgrading our top end in order to afford mid range players, that will be the death of this team’s Stanley Cup chances. Thats poor cap management. I hope that does not come to pass. As we have a solid 1,2,3 dmen, with good 5 and 6. Missing the 4, currently held by an overpaid 5 in Russell.

  7. slopitch says:

    I think you let maroon go regardless. As for Nuge vs Sekera, I think you wait to see how Nuge does this year as well as Nurse. The Oilers deepest position is LD and is hard to get a player like Nuge. I’d lean towards trading Sekera next summer.

    I’d do it now for Eriksson Ek + Dumba. Doubt minny does that though.

  8. hags9k says:

    Maybe one of Paigin, Bear, Jones, Simpson show they are ready early? Sending Sekera out to keep RNH seems like the play to me.

  9. Kinger_Oil.redux says:

    – Great post LT! RE: RNH: I’m on the fence. If we have the PP wizard RNH who pots 20 goals, plays Dave Keon style , is #2 C when Drai is on 1st line or lights it up with CmD keep him

    – If we get the still teen-age body, poor playoff, sub 45 point RNH from the last few years, then he doesn’t fit, and move one

    – Rather than figure out if RNH is a keeper, we need to figure out what RNH we have and it behooves the coaching staff to optimally deploy him.

    – I think he could be a key cog next year, but another year like the last 2: either injured, or not scoring, not effective in playoffs, and he should rightly be dealt: that’s what good teams do

    – The ‘Peak performance RNH”, and this team is essentially unstoppable next year IMO

    * I’d love to see Joki-Nugey-Pulji

  10. jtblack says:

    “If Leon Draisaitl has a Jason Arnott career, would you consider it music?” –
    With all due respect, Arnott played 1250 games. Almost 1,000 points. 1 Stanley. We should be thrilled if ANY player not named McDavid, can achieve those Lofty Heights. Its rare air to hit the 1,000 game mark.

    Good article as always!

  11. pells says:

    All these questions will continue to be fluid for the next 8 years. I remember Nuge in his rookie year and how aggressive he was. He was always pushing offensively. His edges, gear changes and hockey IQ and vision. I used to tell all my friends that he would be the best of all the Oiler young guns. Years of injuries and losing have beaten him down. You can tell he is more concerned with not losing rather then trying to win. Keeping the puck out of the net became a bigger focus then putting it in the net. Still believe there is an amazing player in there. Please Todd find a way to ‘Release The Nuge’

  12. OriginalPouzar says:

    Its going to be a very sad day if (when) we have to trade the Nuge. The team is going to get worse on that day, in fact, the team might get much worse. I was always of the opinion that we would be getting a lesser player like Gallagher and a secondary piece but the cap situation may be so dire that the return is simply picks. I say “may” be so dire because its largely a function of how our RFAs play this year (Nurse, Benning, Strome, Slepy, Caggulia) – maybe we can get them all to sign for not much more than their current cap hits but we’ve got to assume at least one or two of them will earn a somewhat material raise.

    The more I think about it, the more I’ve come to realize that picks for Nuge is likely the best return. This is because we are likely to be buyers at this year’s trade deadline with picks going out for immediate and short term improvements. A Nuge trade will serve to replenish these lost picks in a very good draft at a time that its imperative that we stock the prospect depth to give the team the best short to have a pipeline of young cheap talent for the next few years.

    I’m not sure how I reconcile this strategy with simply being a worse hockey team because this team will be much worse after a Nuge trade.

  13. Philosophil says:

    Lowetide,

    That’s a point with Strome. PC has proven with Yakupov, and to some degree Davidsons/Deharnais that he will give away an asset for no return if suits a financial need. Maybe Strome is given away, meaning next to no return for EBS. Politically it gives PC the cover of having a barrier from giving Eberle away.

  14. LMHF#1 says:

    Sure would have been something to see that squad kept together by a capable owner and added pieces for a run. They had many elements of a Cup team, just lacked a bit part here or there and time to grow.

  15. OriginalPouzar says:

    In no world can I reconcile trading Sekera over Russell – trade return notwithstanding. Sigh!

  16. OriginalPouzar says:

    I love The Big Rig – Hattrick Maroon. Patty is part of the new identity of this hockey team – the confidence, the skilled size, the team toughness, the “play for and protect each other”, the “swagger”.

    With that said, assuming a $4M plus salary for Maroon going forward (lets not forget, this is really his one chance at a “big contract”), I can’t see it making sense to keep Patty over Nuge – the center is more important, the two way play of Nuge is more important, the youth of Nuge is more important.

    Yes, Maroon scores goals when paired with McDavid (and lesser goals without) and is part of the identity but can we really justify keeping him over Nuge if the salaries are within $2M?

    I guess one difference is we’d be letting Patty go in free agency for free whereas with Nuge we’d be getting a (shitty) return.

  17. jp says:

    I could see a Nuge-McDavid-Maroon first line this year (not sure why I prefer Nuge on LW – but didn’t Maroon play RW a fair bit when he first came over from the Ducks?).

    Nuge could very easily eclipse 25 goals and 60 points if he ends up playing a lot with McDavid imo.

    So tough to see a way to keep Nuge beyond this year regardless. The Sekera option makes a lot of sense if Nurse/Benning continue to improve – and left D looks like a position of depth and strength. But really, I can’t disagree that Nuge is almost certainly going to move on.

  18. stush18 says:

    OriginalPouzar:
    I love The Big Rig – Hattrick Maroon.Patty is part of the new identity of this hockey team – the confidence, the skilled size, the team toughness, the “play for and protect each other”, the “swagger”.

    With that said, assuming a $4M plus salary for Maroon going forward (lets not forget, this is really his one chance at a “big contract”), I can’t see it making sense to keep Patty over Nuge – the center is more important, the two way play of Nuge is more important, the youth of Nuge is more important.

    Yes, Maroon scores goals when paired with McDavid (and lesser goals without) and is part of the identity but can we really justify keeping him over Nuge if the salaries are within $2M?

    I guess one difference is we’d be letting Patty go in free agency for free whereas with Nuge we’d be getting a (shitty) return.

    I kind of agree.

    It’s tough because these are my two favourite oilers. Someone can correct me if I am wrong , but I’m sure nuge has some of the highest shot rates on the oilers. It might be exactly what mcdavid needs.

    I’ll be honest, I would move on from maroon and nurse before nuge.

    That makes up the salary difference.

  19. stush18 says:

    jp,

    No, I think maroon has played mostly LW his whole career. The ducks have an over abundance of RH shots. I kind of like the idea of nuge on his backhand.

  20. Yegfoundation says:

    I agree that the coach values RNH. When looking at the average total ice time in last years playoffs, RNH falls within the top six forwards by a good margin.

    1. Connor 22.25
    2. Leon 19.32
    3. RNH 18.25
    4. Letustu 17.36
    5. Maroon 17.21
    6. Lucic 17.01
    7. Drake 15.23

  21. Red wolf says:

    Oilin4,

    Let’s win the cup this year and worry about cap next year!

  22. stush18 says:

    Also next years defense Ian going to look something like

    Klefbom-Larsson
    Sekera-benning
    Russell-gryba
    Nurse-bear
    Paigan
    Auvitu
    Jones

    I think if nurse doesn’t push forward this year, it would be easy to move on from him. Plenty of LH dman coming thru the pipeline. His trade value might be extremely high.

    The only downside is nurse seems to be part of the “mcdavid core”. Can’t see them moving on ever.

  23. Woodguy v2.0 says:

    Examining “Tough Minute” centers is one of the first things I did when we got the WoodMoney results.

    RNH doesn’t fare to well vs his peers.

    Here is the list of C’s who played the toughest QoC minutes on their team in 16/17:

    Patrice Bergeron
    Ryan O’Reilly
    Frans Nielsen
    Vincent Trocheck
    Tomas Plekanec
    Jean-Gabriel Pageau
    Tyler Johnson
    Nazem Kadri
    Cody Eakin
    Jonathan Toews
    Nathan MacKinnon
    Mikko Koivu
    Ryan Johansen
    Paul Stastny
    Bryan Little
    Jordan Staal
    Brandon Dubinsky
    Travis Zajac
    John Tavares
    Sean Couturier
    Sidney Crosby
    Nicklas Backstrom
    Ryan Kesler
    Martin Hanzal
    Mikael Backlund
    Ryan Nugent-Hopkins
    Anze Kopitar
    Logan Couture
    Bo Horvat
    Derek Stepan

    The salaries of these players range quite a bit, but $6MM isn’t offside.

    Here is where Nuge’s results rank for various metrics (out of 30 players – all results vs Elite Forwards):

    Percentage of TOI vs Elite F’s – 5th (Koivu, Kesler, Kadri, Hanzel were 1-4)

    5v5 pts/60 – 1.45/60 – 24th

    CF% – 46.1% – 23th

    CF% Relative to Team vs Elite Comp -1.0 – 25th

    DFF% – 43.2% – 27th

    DFF% Relative to Team vs Elite Comp -3.6% – 30th

    We can analyze it deeper and argue about line mates etc, but a lot of players get better results with worse help imo.

    Nuge was thrust into this role by the inspired MacT management machine when he decided to get rid of Horcoff (“Let’s get rid of good vets and thrust kids into the toughest spot!!!!” – Good idea Mac!)

    13/14 was Nuge’s first year as the tough minutes C and he had a tough go with only 1.6 pts/60 and a negative Rel Cor.

    14/15 was, by far, Nuge’s best year in this role

    That year he put up a +2.7 RelCor along with 2.0 pts/60.

    We thought “he’s made it! We have the tough minute C, he’s only 21!! We’re cooking with gas!”

    He wasn’t even leaning on Hall for all of those results either as that was the year Hall only played 53 games.

    The next 2 years did not unfurl like expected though.

    Negative RelCors in both years, 5v5 pts/60 of 1.50 and then 1.60. The hand injury two years ago.

    I wonder where the Nuge of 14/15 has gone?

    Here’s the bottom line though: If the Nuge’s results from the last two years is “what Nuge is”, then he’s very replaceable via a cheaper player.

    Much more replaceable than either Hall or Eberle imo.

    When Kruger from CHI was rumoured available from either CHI or VGK (picked up in the expansion draft) I thought a good course of action would be to pick up Krueger for the Nuge role. Kruger did very well with 2nd toughest comp among CHI C’s with very little in terms of quality team mates on the wing.

    Then trade Nuge for the permanent solution to 2/3 RD and keep Eberle in order to keep the tumbleweeds away from RW.

    Didn’t happen though.

    CAR picked up Kruger for a 5th (5th!!!!) and I think he might be close to a comparable for Nuge and makes $3MM/yr.

    RNH is not near value at $6MM/yr. Eberle was close to value, Hall was a bargain.

    This post got a bit rambly. I love me some Nuge, but he hasn’t done anything for 2 years in the tough minute role to make me think he’s not replaceable.

    Whether or not Peter replaces him is a different discussion.

  24. kgo says:

    Maroon will go, his talents are duplicated by Lucic.

    Nurse will sign a cheap bridge deal. I personally think Benning will regress and warrant only $1MM.

    Letestu will not return….Nuge is our Hossa, the GM will keep him.

  25. kgo says:

    Woodguy v2.0,

    “A bit” rambly?

  26. LMHF#1 says:

    If they’re going to trade 93, they should do it now.

  27. trencan says:

    I also expect RNH will be traded next summer. I think the return should be based on cost controled prospects or picks (or combination). RNH is the last interesting Oilers player to trade in next x years for the NHL market, so Chia should be very clever with this trade. He should find replacement for players who are likely to leave in next two seasons. The one is Maroon and the next one is Talbot. I can see Maroon leaving next season to Blues and I also think it is best scenario for all. I really like Pat but I dont think 5 years contract is something I consider as good deal for the future. The same with Talbot, I am ok with 3 years contracts but expect both of them to ask 5 years and some NMC, NTC. I like Bellows + Sorokin trade with Islanders. I know we have some interesting young GK in system but I personally do not consider any of them as future #1 NHL goalie. Benson is also ineresting LW prospect, but the injuries are serious problem. So LW and GK could be in my opinion future holes on Oilers roster and could be solved by RNH trade.

  28. speeds says:

    LMHF#1:
    If they’re going to trade 93, they should do it now.

    I’d argue it’s better to wait:

    (a) cap might go up, and then they might have moved him early for no reason (if they would prefer to keep him)

    (b) a year in offensive situations could well improve his trade value

    (c) this part is hard to know, but the market for him might be depressed or restricted now as many teams are more or less set, vs. moving a player with money and term at or near the draft when more teams have more flexibility.

  29. Woodguy v2.0 says:

    Speaking of rambly pots, Georges was railing about about PDO yesterday and I wanted to answer some of his questions (which were mostly rhetoric, but I’m a dink that way):

    Georges,

    Do you think PDO is negatively correlated from one period to the next?

    Not sure why this is a question. Seem irrelevant. A PDO graph by period would look like someone bouncing on trampoline.


    Would you expect players who outscore their opponents by a fair bit over a small number of games to have average PDO?

    That depends by what you mean by “a fair bit”. If you’re talking 60%+ GF% then yes almost by definition they will have a high PDO.


    Aren’t their percentages going to be higher than average in this case?

    Usually

    Are you saying outscoring in Drai’s case is explained by PDO?

    I would say PDO describes what happened best, especially the last few games vs ANA

    It describes it much better than “outplayed” as his team was outshot by a fair margin when he was on the ice, even with McDavid.

    What does PDO explain?

    How often the puck is going in the players net or the opposition’s net compared to what you should expect long term. It explains “running hot” and “running cold” quite well.

    Do you always infer from high PDO that the player is lucky but not good?

    That really depends on what constitutes a “high” PDO.

    In the last 10 years among players who have played at least 400 games Stepan and McDonagh lead the NHL with PDOs of 1024 and 1022 respectively. Those are driven by their ONSV% of .930 and .927. Playing with Lundqvist has its benefits.

    Among players who played with human goalies we see Orpik next. Orpik??? Yeah, playing with both Crosby and Malkin for 8 years has its benefits.

    Then we see the players who can drive high ONSH% like Crosby and Tanguay and they are at 1019 and 1020 with ONSH% of 10.4 and 10.9.

    When talking about a high PDO being a “skill” most people are talking about driving a high ONSH%, I assume that’s what you are talking about as well.

    There are exactly 11 NHL players in the last 10 years to sustain a 10%+ ONSH% with 400+ games played. They are:

    Sidney Crosby 10.9
    Steven Stamkos 10.8
    Martin St. Louis 10.8
    Ryan Getzlaf 10.6
    Alex Tanguay 10.4
    Evgeni Malkin 10.3
    Bobby Ryan 10.2
    Corey Perry 10.2
    Joffrey Lupul 10.1
    Brooks Orpik 10.0
    Thomas Vanek 10.0

    Highly gifted scorers and one lucky Dman who got to play with 2 of them on two different lines.

    11 players out of the 408 players who qualified with 400gp since 07/08

    So its safe to say the ability to drive a ONSH% of 10+ is very rare and even then, unlike Spinal Tap, not even Crosby gets to 11.

    Do you think Drai is the next John Druce?

    Well John Druce was a journeyman checker. Drai has most ski.l than that.

    Druce went 14-3-17 in 15gp in his fabled playoff run.
    Drai went 6-10-16 in 13gp this past year.

    Druce was a career .45pts/gm player who went 1.07 in 15 games
    Drai is a career .72pts/gm player who went 1.23 in 13 games.

    Druce outscored his history by .62pts/gm, Drai 0.51/gm.

    Druce isn’t Drai, but he ran almost as hot.

    Do you think PDO tells us anything at all about underlying skill? Or are you fully committed to outshooting as the only way to win?

    Like I showed earlier, there is 2% of NHLers who have driven ONSH% over 10 for 400+ games.

    For those players a “normal” PDO above 1000 is a given (if they don’t play with a crappy goaler)

    Crosby’s PDO for his career is 1019. I think its safe to say that’s his “baseline” PDO.

    Drai’s PDO for his career so far is 989 with a SH% of 8.8 and SV% of .901

    I think that will converge on 1000 pretty soon as the ONSV% should increase this year and next. Not sure if the ONSH% will increase. That will probably depend on how much he plays with McDavid who has a ONSH% of 10.7%

    Of 408 players mentioned earlier, 193 of them have a PDO between 995 and 1005.

    Those above and below that range are mostly driven by ONSV%.

    So when you ask:

    “Do you think PDO tells us anything at all about underlying skill? Or are you fully committed to outshooting as the only way to win?”

    The player’s baseline PDO can tell us about skill, but its better to use their ONSH% if you want to talk skill as there is no skill in playing in front of Lunqvist or lack of skill in playing in front of Cam Ward.

    When everyone is talking about Drai’s PDO heater its based on:

    Career PDO of .989 (low, it will come up)
    Season PDO of 1030 (he was below 1000 away from McDavid)
    Playoff PDO of 1079 (12.9 ONSH%, .950 ONSV%)
    Playoff PDO of 1122 in the 81 minutes without McDavid in the playoffs (16.2% ONSH%, .960 ONSV%)

    You can’t deny that he ran hot.

    No one sustains a PDO of 1079. No one.

    Everyone talks about his play away from McDavid as being what to expect from him going forward and why he earned his giant contract.

    He had a CF% of 42%, GF% of 71% and PDO of 1122 away from McDavid.

    To even contemplate that as being Drai’s “new normal” is ridiculous.

    Also,

    Here’s a good way to think of PDO.

    It describes why a players’ GF% is greater than his CF% or SF%. Usually its due to ONSV%, but for the elite offensive players its can be due in part to ONSH%.

    Here are 5 players’ career GF% to CF% rates and their difference over the last 2 years:

    Player GF% –> CF%—> Difference

    Crosby 58.5% –> 54.1% —> 4.4%
    McDavid 58% –> 54.4% —> 3.6%
    Kane 55% —> 51.6% –> 3.4%
    Draisaitl 52.5% —> 51.6% —> 0.9%
    Kopitar 55.6% —> 56% —> -0.4%

    Now here is Drai in the playoffs:

    Drai 48.5% —> 68.7% —> 20.2%

    Now here is Drai without McDavid in the playoffs:

    Drai 42.2% –> 71.2% —> 29%

    So, if Drai away from McDavid in the playoffs what to expect from him going forward, we are to expect his goal/corsi ratio to be:

    6.6 x better than Crosby over the last 2 years
    8 x better than McDavid over the last 2 years

    Hmmm.

    Maybe he just ran hot and had a PDO of 1122.

  30. Woodguy v2.0 says:

    kgo: Quote

    Glad you read that far down.

  31. Yegfoundation says:

    Woodguy v2.0,

    Agreed, the eyes and the results both confirm Nuge isn’t a difference maker. IMO, the best reason to keep him at this point is to hope he finds his offensive game again. I’m supportive if our GM decides to trade Nuge and replace him with a player who has more proven results the last two years.

    I hope others aren’t over valuing baby Nuge because what we hoped he would become.

  32. Woodguy v2.0 says:

    speeds: I’d argue it’s better to wait:

    (a) cap might go up, and then they might have moved him early for no reason (if they would prefer to keep him)

    (b) a year in offensive situations could well improve his trade value

    (c) this part is hard to know, but the market for him might be depressed or restricted now as many teams are more or less set, vs. moving a player with money and term at or near the draft when more teams have more flexibility.

    I agree with Speeds here.

    Too important this year and if he plays on McDavid’s wing for 70% of the time someone might think he’s worth $8.5MM and therefore a steal at $6MM

  33. Lowetide says:

    WG: Any issue with Nuge playing away from McDavid and that tilting the rel? I’m always suspicious of McDavid’s impact on everyone, and 93 didn’t play with him.

  34. Yegfoundation says:

    Yegfoundation:
    I agree that the coach values RNH.When looking at the average total ice time in last years playoffs, RNH falls within the top six forwards by a good margin.

    1.Connor 22.25
    2.Leon 19.32
    3.RNH 18.25
    4.Letustu 17.36
    5.Maroon 17.21
    6.Lucic 17.01
    7.Drake 15.23

    The question for me is: did the coach play Nuge because he thought he could help him win games, or because he had lacked a better option.

    Additionally, I was surprised to see that average total ice time between Leon and Nuge so close. Why would that have occurred? Was Connor on the ice too much, or was Leon not on the ice enough?

  35. speeds says:

    Woodguy v2.0:
    Too important this year

    that’s a part (d) I should have included – this year is important and I don’t know how likely it is a RNH deal improves the team on ice for the upcoming season, particularly if it’s futures based (though of course there could be other moves in combination)

  36. Showerhead says:

    Lowetide:
    WG: Any issue with Nuge playing away from McDavid and that tilting the rel? I’m always suspicious of McDavid’s impact on everyone, and 93 didn’t play with him.

    My hand was up for the same question.

  37. Showerhead says:

    speeds: I’d argue it’s better to wait:

    (a) cap might go up, and then they might have moved him early for no reason (if they would prefer to keep him)

    (b) a year in offensive situations could well improve his trade value

    (c) this part is hard to know, but the market for him might be depressed or restricted now as many teams are more or less set, vs. moving a player with money and term at or near the draft when more teams have more flexibility.

    All of these plus: McDavid is about to begin the best value contract in cap history. If you don’t think you can win a Nuge trade on the ice (and although Woodguy’s post offers hope, I’m not optimistic) then you keep him, add what you can afford at the deadline and hope for the best in June.

  38. Woodguy v2.0 says:

    Lowetide:
    WG: Any issue with Nuge playing away from McDavid and that tilting the rel? I’m always suspicious of McDavid’s impact on everyone, and 93 didn’t play with him.

    No question that McDavid skews it.

    That said, Drai at C, Caggulia and Letetu skew it the other way as its Rel Team.

    McDavid vs Elite CF% – 50.4%
    RNH vs Elite CF% – 46.2%
    Drai w/o McDavid vs Elite CF% – 44.1%
    Letestu CF% vs Elite – 42.4%
    Caggulia w/o McDavid CF% vs Elite – 40.8%

    Still nothing to write home about.

    G is writing something up about Drai and RNH without McDavid or Russell and RNH shows much better when Russell isn’t on the ice so maybe I’m too down on him.

  39. Yegfoundation says:

    stush18,

    cryedrtssssssssssssssssssssssssssssss

  40. Showerhead says:

    Woodguy v2.0,

    In this post you rank Nuge 5th in % of ice time vs. the elites and then you show how he is bottom 10 or more commonly bottom 5 in results.

    If every player on your list AND their contexts were equal (they aren’t, I know this) and you ranked them 1 to 30 in terms of % vs. elites, wouldn’t it make sense that their results would be that same list except shown from 30 to 1?

    Sincere question even though it seems like the sort of case where I might be missing something.

    Also, probably more significantly: I echo LT – if you don’t play on 97’s line are you doomed to shitty relative metrics for the next decade?

  41. Woodguy v2.0 says:

    stush18,

    I think if nurse doesn’t push forward this year, it would be easy to move on from him. Plenty of LH dman coming thru the pipeline. His trade value might be extremely high.

    If what I heard is correct they could have moved him for Hamonic when Hall was still an Oiler.

    Hall-Drai would have been a deadly combo on the 2nd line. They played well together and I bet Drai is long term for less than $8.5MM.

    Damn.

  42. Woodguy v2.0 says:

    Showerhead:
    Woodguy v2.0,

    In this post you rank Nuge 5th in % of ice time vs. the elites and then you show how he is bottom 10 or more commonly bottom 5 in results.

    If every player on your list AND their contexts were equal (they aren’t, I know this) and you ranked them 1 to 30 in terms of % vs. elites, wouldn’t it make sense that their results would be that same list except shown from 30 to 1?

    Sincere question even though it seems like the sort of case where I might be missing something.

    Also, probably more significantly: I echo LT – if you don’t play on 97’s line are you doomed to shitty relative metrics for the next decade?

    The difference in TOI vs Elites isn’t enough to account for poor results imo.

    Here they are:
    Mikko Koivu 46
    Ryan Kesler 45
    Nazem Kadri 44
    Martin Hanzal 42
    Ryan Nugent-Hopkins 42
    Paul Stastny 41
    Bryan Little 40
    Jonathan Toews 40
    Mikael Backlund 40
    Jordan Staal 39
    Nicklas Backstrom 38
    Sean Couturier 38
    Nathan MacKinnon 38
    Patrice Bergeron 38
    Travis Zajac 38
    Ryan Johansen 37
    Vincent Trocheck 37
    Bo Horvat 36
    John Tavares 35
    Derek Stepan 35
    Frans Nielsen 35
    Ryan O’Reilly 35
    Tomas Plekanec 35
    Cody Eakin 35
    Sidney Crosby 34
    Logan Couture 34
    Tyler Johnson 34
    Jean-Gabriel Pageau 34
    Brandon Dubinsky 34
    Anze Kopitar 34

    Some of the best results were posted by guys right around Nuge’s TOI%.

    Kesler, Backlund, Koivu, Kadri, Couturier, Bergeron all had great results.

  43. OriginalPouzar says:

    LMHF#1:
    If they’re going to trade 93, they should do it now.

    Given a Nuge trade would be primarily for cap relief and almost certainty result in a weakening of the roster, how can you justify doing that now, prior to the season when true cup contention is actually not an unreasonable scenario?

    I’m a fan that very much looks to the future and realizes the need to balance the now with the future but a Nuge trade simply does not work for me. PC may be under pressure to trade Nuge next off-season lowering a return but its just as likely that Nuge’s play this coming year leads to increased value.

  44. OriginalPouzar says:

    Yegfoundation: The question for me is:did the coach play Nuge because he thought he could help him win games, or because he had lacked a better option.

    Additionally, I was surprised to see that average total ice time between Leon and Nuge so close.Why would that have occurred?Was Connor on the ice too much, or was Leon not on the ice enough?

    Nuge is a primary PK option and was a primary defensive minutes option – hence the high minutes.

  45. Woodguy v2.0 says:

    Showerhead,

    Maybe it will help you wrap your head around what I am seeing if I shared some of the results in total.

    DFF%
    Player DFF%
    Sidney Crosby 60.3
    Jordan Staal 57.3
    Patrice Bergeron 56.8
    Anze Kopitar 56.0
    Mikko Koivu 55.5
    Nazem Kadri 53.8
    Ryan Johansen 52.5
    Ryan Kesler 52.4
    Vincent Trocheck 52.2
    Sean Couturier 51.8
    Derek Stepan 51.7
    Bryan Little 51.1
    John Tavares 51.0
    Travis Zajac 51.0
    Tomas Plekanec 50.5
    Logan Couture 50.5
    Tyler Johnson 50.3
    Mikael Backlund 49.6
    Nicklas Backstrom 49.4
    Jonathan Toews 48.4
    Ryan O’Reilly 48.4
    Paul Stastny 48.1
    Jean-Gabriel Pageau 47.1
    Frans Nielsen 46.5
    Brandon Dubinsky 45.7
    Cody Eakin 44.9
    Ryan Nugent-Hopkins 44.3
    Nathan MacKinnon 43.2
    Bo Horvat 40.6
    Martin Hanzal 39.4

    DFF% RelComp
    Player DFF%RC
    Patrice Bergeron 6.5
    Jordan Staal 6.1
    Vincent Trocheck 6.1
    John Tavares 6.1
    Sidney Crosby 4.8
    Mikko Koivu 4.7
    Derek Stepan 4.6
    Travis Zajac 4.5
    Anze Kopitar 4.2
    Sean Couturier 4.1
    Frans Nielsen 4.1
    Nazem Kadri 3.7
    Jean-Gabriel Pageau 2.5
    Ryan Johansen 2.2
    Mikael Backlund 1.9
    Nicklas Backstrom 1.9
    Ryan O’Reilly 1.9
    Bryan Little 1.4
    Jonathan Toews 1.1
    Tyler Johnson 0.8
    Logan Couture 0.6
    Ryan Kesler 0.5
    Tomas Plekanec 0.1
    Paul Stastny -0.2
    Nathan MacKinnon -1.1
    Bo Horvat -2.1
    Brandon Dubinsky -2.3
    Martin Hanzal -2.3
    Cody Eakin -2.9
    Ryan Nugent-Hopkins -3.6

    CF%
    Player CF%
    Patrice Bergeron 58.6
    Sean Couturier 54.4
    Anze Kopitar 54.2
    Ryan Johansen 54.1
    Sidney Crosby 53.6
    Jordan Staal 53.5
    Vincent Trocheck 52.5
    Jonathan Toews 51.9
    John Tavares 51.4
    Nazem Kadri 51.4
    Nicklas Backstrom 51.3
    Mikael Backlund 51.2
    Bryan Little 50.9
    Tomas Plekanec 50.6
    Logan Couture 49.2
    Travis Zajac 49.0
    Ryan Kesler 48.9
    Derek Stepan 48.4
    Mikko Koivu 48.0
    Tyler Johnson 47.9
    Frans Nielsen 47.5
    Ryan O’Reilly 46.8
    Ryan Nugent-Hopkins 46.1
    Martin Hanzal 46.0
    Paul Stastny 45.8
    Brandon Dubinsky 45.6
    Nathan MacKinnon 44.8
    Cody Eakin 44.4
    Bo Horvat 41.7
    Jean-Gabriel Pageau 41.4

    CF% RelComp
    Player CF%RC
    Patrice Bergeron 7.4
    John Tavares 5.9
    Ryan Johansen 4.5
    Jordan Staal 4.4
    Vincent Trocheck 4.1
    Travis Zajac 4.1
    Sean Couturier 3.7
    Mikael Backlund 3.6
    Sidney Crosby 3.2
    Derek Stepan 3.2
    Frans Nielsen 3.2
    Jonathan Toews 2.8
    Anze Kopitar 2.4
    Ryan O’Reilly 2.3
    Bryan Little 2.2
    Nicklas Backstrom 2.1
    Mikko Koivu 1.9
    Tomas Plekanec 1.5
    Nazem Kadri 1.2
    Ryan Kesler 0.7
    Logan Couture 0.2
    Tyler Johnson 0.0
    Martin Hanzal -0.2
    Nathan MacKinnon -0.4
    Ryan Nugent-Hopkins -1.0
    Paul Stastny -2.0
    Jean-Gabriel Pageau -2.0
    Brandon Dubinsky -2.8
    Cody Eakin -3.7
    Bo Horvat -3.9

  46. Seismic Source says:

    The return on RNH? Without knowing or speculating it’s hard to be for or against it. We know what teams would be interested. Montreal, Arizona, Carolina and maybe even LV.

    Assuming Drai and Strome play center (big assumption)
    I’d want a proven 20 goal winger with term, under 27 years old and under 4 million a year. Basically Eberles replacement.

    Brendan Gallagher.

  47. season not played says:

    Your silence was deafening.

  48. OriginalPouzar says:

    I don’t think Gallagher and his 3.5M cap hit (I think) is enough cap savings.

    I think a Nuge trade will need to replenish the lost draft picks from being a buyer at the deadline this year.

    Its going to hurt to weaken the roster that much but I think it might be the right move.

    I will still hold out hope that we will not have to trade Nuge for a lesser player or picks – that trade is a year away (10 months away) and alot can (and will likely) happen between now and then.

  49. Lewis Grant says:

    If Leon Draisaitl has a Jason Arnott career, would you consider it music?

    Yes. Music like Nickelback, Lou Reed, or Rebecca Black. (And I mean no disrespect to Arnott.)

    Draisaitl is making $8.5M a year!!!

    He shot 27% in the playoffs and 17% in the regular season. That is incredibly unsustainable. He also played with Connor McDavid. If we are paying him to be our 2C, then that is, by definition, unsustainable.

    Draisaitl at 77 points = Eberle at 76 points. After Eberle’s 76-point season, Dellow argued (to a torrent of rose-coloured-glasses abuse) that Eberle’s establshed scoring rate would be about 62 points per 82 games. How right he was. We just traded away Eberle because he was paid $6M. How soon until we trade away Draisaitl because he is making $8.5M?

    Let’s put it this way: Patrice Bergeron made $8M as a UFA. Patrice Bergeron is FAR better than Jason Arnott ever was. Leon Draisaitl needs a career far better than Patrice Bergeron, not a career far worse.

    Tampa got TWO of the triplets for little more than the cost of one Draisaitl.

    We get a good deal on Draisaitl if he becomes Messier. We break even on Draisaitl’s deal if he becomes Getzlaf or Kopitar. We lose out big time if he becomes Arnott. We have precious little evidence to suggest even the Getzlaf/Kopitar level. All we have is hope. And we know how H.O.P.E. worked out.

  50. Seismic Source says:

    OriginalPouzar,

    I hate the thought of trading draft picks for rentals. I sincerely hope we do not. This team is going to be desperate for value contracts. Keep as many chances for productive ELC’s as possible.

    Gallagher is a value contract and then some. Trade for value contracts even if it’s a bit of a downgrade in talent.

  51. godot10 says:

    Woodguy v2.0:

    Nuge was thrust into this role by the inspired MacT management machine when he decided to get rid of Horcoff (“Let’s get rid of good vets and thrust kids into the toughest spot!!!!”– Good idea Mac!)

    13/14 was Nuge’s first year as the tough minutes C and he had a tough go with only 1.6 pts/60 and a negative Rel Cor.

    14/15 was, by far, Nuge’s best year in this role

    That year he put up a +2.7 RelCor along with 2.0 pts/60.

    We thought “he’s made it!We have the tough minute C, he’s only 21!! We’re cooking with gas!”

    He wasn’t even leaning on Hall for all of those results either as that was the year Hall only played 53 games.

    The next 2 years did not unfurl like expected though.

    Negative RelCors in both years, 5v5 pts/60 of 1.50 and then 1.60.The hand injury two years ago.

    I wonder where the Nuge of 14/15 has gone?

    Here’s the bottom line though:If the Nuge’s results from the last two years is “what Nuge is”, then he’s very replaceable via a cheaper player.

    Nugent-Hopkins was really good (with a bum shoulder) with Krueger and then again with Nelson, and was fine with Renney as a rookie).

    He was “awful” under Eakins and Is “awful” relatively under McLellan. McLellan has publicly shamed Nugent-Hopkins twice. Coaches don’t do that if they have a completely functional relationship with a player.

    So I would say, the problem with Nugent-Hopkins is crossed-wires with the coaching. The coach doesn’t believe in the player or his potential or is overly fascinated with his other shinier toys. The coach is playing with Woody all the time and has thrown Buzz under the bed.

  52. speeds says:

    OriginalPouzar:
    I don’t think Gallagher and his 3.5M cap hit (I think) is enough cap savings.

    I think a Nuge trade will need to replenish the lost draft picks from being a buyer at the deadline this year.

    Its going to hurt to weaken the roster that much but I think it might be the right move.

    I will still hold out hope that we will not have to trade Nuge for a lesser player or picks – that trade is a year away (10 months away) and alot can (and will likely) happen between now and then.

    Stepan trade as a rough template of sorts at the 2018 draft, IYO?

  53. Seismic Source says:

    Lewis Grant,

    Arnott was elite. The points don’t tell the story there. If Drai turns into Arnott. Winning.

  54. OriginalPouzar says:

    Seismic Source:
    OriginalPouzar,

    I hate the thought of trading draft picks for rentals. I sincerely hope we do not. This team is going to be desperate for value contracts. Keep as many chances for productive ELC’s as possible.

    Gallagher is a value contract and then some. Trade for value contracts even if it’s a bit of a downgrade in talent.

    I don’t disagree about trading picks for rentals – we will be desperate for value contracts, I 100% agree.

    With that said, there are times when a team needs to “go for it” – if the Oilers are battling for 1st in the Western conference and the weak spot seems to be on the right side, do we not make a move for James Neal if its available (and he’s having a goal-scoring year)?

  55. Showerhead says:

    Woodguy v2.0: The difference in TOI vs Elites isn’t enough to account for poor results imo.

    Here they are:
    Mikko Koivu46
    Ryan Kesler45
    Nazem Kadri44
    Martin Hanzal42
    Ryan Nugent-Hopkins42
    Paul Stastny41
    Bryan Little40
    Jonathan Toews40
    Mikael Backlund40
    Jordan Staal39
    Nicklas Backstrom38
    Sean Couturier38
    Nathan MacKinnon38
    Patrice Bergeron38
    Travis Zajac38
    Ryan Johansen37
    Vincent Trocheck37
    Bo Horvat36
    John Tavares35
    Derek Stepan35
    Frans Nielsen35
    Ryan O’Reilly35
    Tomas Plekanec35
    Cody Eakin35
    Sidney Crosby34
    Logan Couture34
    Tyler Johnson34
    Jean-Gabriel Pageau34
    Brandon Dubinsky34
    Anze Kopitar34

    Some of the best results were posted by guys right around Nuge’s TOI%.

    Kesler, Backlund, Koivu, Kadri, Couturier, Bergeron all had great results.

    Thank you for this!

    I dumped them into a spreadsheet to see if there was a correlation between TOI% vs. Elite and the other results. If I’ve done this correctly, there’s none whatsoever.

    TOI % vs. DFF%: 0.028205335
    TOI % vs. DFF% RelComp: -0.067695633
    TOI % vs. CF%: 0.056028315
    TOI % vs. CF% RelComp: 0.026334488

    Like I say, if I’ve done this correctly and there is no correlation between TOI% vs. Elite and the others, then my “the list should just reverse itself” theory is bunk.

    Thoughts? I really appreciate the data dump. I have no experience with coding but can play around in Excel a fair amount.

  56. Woodguy v2.0 says:

    godot10,

    He was “awful” under Eakins and Is “awful” relatively under McLellan. McLellan has publicly shamed Nugent-Hopkins twice. Coaches don’t do that if they have a completely functional relationship with a player.
    So I would say, the problem with Nugent-Hopkins is crossed-wires with the coaching. The coach doesn’t believe in the player or his potential or is overly fascinated with his other shinier toys. The coach is playing with Woody all the time and has thrown Buzz under the bed.

    That’s just wrong and doesn’t match the results.

    Nuge’s best year, by far, as the tough minutes C was 14/15.

    That’s half a season of Eakins and half a season of your brother Nelson.

    iirc there wasn’t a bump when the coaching change happened in his numbers.

    When corsica.hockey is back up or when puckiq.com has the ability (working on it) to give results with date ranges I’ll revisit it, but I’m pretty sure he was good all year.

  57. Woodguy v2.0 says:

    Showerhead: Thank you for this!

    I dumped them into a spreadsheet to see if there was a correlation between TOI% vs. Elite and the other results. If I’ve done this correctly, there’s none whatsoever.

    TOI % vs. DFF%: 0.028205335
    TOI % vs. DFF% RelComp: -0.067695633
    TOI % vs. CF%: 0.056028315
    TOI % vs. CF% RelComp: 0.026334488

    Like I say, if I’ve done this correctly and there is no correlation between TOI% vs. Elite and the others, then my “the list should just reverse itself” theory is bunk.

    Thoughts? I really appreciate the data dump. I have no experience with coding but can play around in Excel a fair amount.

    Do you follow me on twitter? If so DM me your email addy and I’ll email you the spreadsheet with all the data (much more than I showed here)

  58. speeds says:

    OriginalPouzar,

    Too early to say. For example, and I think we’ve both kind of talked about it, but a player like Puljujarvi having a big jump in production wouldn’t be unprecedented, and would both alleviate the need to trade for Neal, and reduce the cap room available to do so anyways (if enough bonuses either have been hit or look like they may well be hit by the time the deadline rolls around).

  59. Woodguy v2.0 says:

    Showerhead,

    Other option is to post an email addy here and clear it off when I get it.

    I’ll keep the page up if that’s your choice.

  60. godot10 says:

    Woodguy v2.0:
    godot10,

    He was “awful” under Eakins and Is “awful” relatively under McLellan. McLellan has publicly shamed Nugent-Hopkins twice. Coaches don’t do that if they have a completely functional relationship with a player.
    So I would say, the problem with Nugent-Hopkins is crossed-wires with the coaching. The coach doesn’t believe in the player or his potential or is overly fascinated with his other shinier toys. The coach is playing with Woody all the time and has thrown Buzz under the bed.

    That’s just wrong and doesn’t match the results.

    Nuge’s best year, by far, as the tough minutes C was 14/15.

    That’s half a season of Eakins and half a season ofyour brother Nelson.

    iirc there wasn’t a bump when the coaching change happened in his numbers.

    When corsica.hockey is back up or when puckiq.com has the ability (working on it) to give results with date ranges I’ll revisit it, but I’m pretty sure he was good all year.

    With Eakins, Nugent-Hopkins had Petry and Hall on the team.
    With Nelson, Nugent-Hopkins had Petry and Hall only for about half the time Nelson was coaching.

  61. Woodguy v2.0 says:

    godot10: With Eakins, Nugent-Hopkins had Petry and Hall on the team.
    With Nelson, Nugent-Hopkins had Petry and Hall only for about half the time Nelson was coaching.

    That’s true.

    Nelson also had Klefbom full time while Eakins didn’t.

    He was called up in early November.

    Rookie, but a damn fine one.

  62. OriginalPouzar says:

    speeds:
    OriginalPouzar,

    Too early to say.For example, and I think we’ve both kind of talked about it, but a player like Puljujarvi having abig jump in production wouldn’t be unprecedented, and would both alleviate the need to trade for Neal, and reduce the cap room available to do so anyways (if enough bonuses either have been hit or look like they may well be hit by the time the deadline rolls around).

    Agreed – it too early to say what the need(s) will be but I was just giving an example.

    Its not unreasonable to think that the Oilers will be looking like contenders at the deadline but at the same time with some holes in the lineup (be it a 2nd pairing d-man or a scoring winger or what) and, if that’s the case, management would not be doing its job if it didn’t look to upgrade a weak position at the deadline.

    There is a very good chance of picks being traded this year but we agree of the risk involved given the need for cheap value contracts in the coming years.

  63. speeds says:

    OriginalPouzar: Agreed – it too early to say what the need(s) will be but I was just giving an example.

    Its not unreasonable to think that the Oilers will be looking like contenders at the deadline but at the same time with some holes in the lineup (be it a 2nd pairing d-man or a scoring winger or what) and, if that’s the case, management would not be doing its job if it didn’t look to upgrade a weak position at the deadline.

    There is a very good chance of picks being traded this year but we agree of the risk involved given the need for cheap value contracts in the coming years.

    I’m not a big believer in deadline trades, although like everything it depends on the specifics. I think teams are often paying too much for what they get back.

  64. Showerhead says:

    Woodguy v2.0: Do you follow me on twitter?If so DM me your email addy and I’ll email you the spreadsheet with all the data (much more than I showed here)

    I do! I am @wpgmurat on Twitter. I’ll message you now.

  65. Woodguy v2.0 says:

    Showerhead: I do! I am @wpgmurat on Twitter. I’ll message you now.

    Got it and sent!

    Sorry for forgetting your sn!

    I feel shame.

  66. haters says:

    I hate to say it but I think Lucic was the main culprit for the lack of success on Nuges line. Ebs and Nuge had a very off year thanks to McLellan not having the balls to slot Lucic on the 3rd line where he honestly belongs. He looked slow and lost. I don’t blame Chia. You can’t win all bets. At least he made up his loss with the Russel procurement.

    Lucic needs to get it going early and often.

    As far as how to keep Nuge, I’d let Marroon walk. Possibly see if there’s a market for Russel if one of the young guys gets going. To bad about that nmc though .

  67. Georges says:

    Woodguy v2.0,

    Well, you opened with this:

    Do you think PDO is negatively correlated from one period to the next?

    Not sure why this is a question. Seem irrelevant. A PDO graph by period would look like someone bouncing on trampoline.

    That’s not good. It’s a question because it has an answer. Knowing the answer is relevant to statements you make about PDO.

    For forwards, it IS better to focus on ONSH%. PDO includes goalie effects.

    There are two conditional probabilities to think about here:

    P(elite player | above average ONSH%)

    P(above average ONSH% | elite player)

    The prior probability, P(elite player), is, by definition (though the definition can vary) low.

    The posterior probability, P(elite player | above average ONSH%) is higher, maybe 2 times higher, based on how you define your sample. If you ignore ONSH%, you ignore the chance to increase your odds of identifying an elite player. The cost of failing to identify an elite player compared is what exactly?

    You picked an arbitrary cutoff of 10%. If you look below that threshold, you still see a lot of good players. Being consistently above average ONSH% gives your team an advantage. The higher up, the better, but just being consistently above average is good. I’m using Manny’s data from 2007-08 to 2015-16. If you keep going below your list, you still see really good offensive players. Elite players = Elite stats. P(above average ONSH% | elite player) is (by definition and by the data) high.

    As for:

    Here’s a good way to think of PDO.

    It describes why a players’ GF% is greater than his CF% or SF%. Usually its due to ONSV%, but for the elite offensive players its can be due in part to ONSH%.

    I get the sense that you think CF% is what the player deserves and the rest is luck. As though CF% is some kind of durable truth. Not sure how many times I have to bring up the currently very weak relationship between CF% and GF%. As in, CF% tells us barely anything about GF%. Or that the strength of the relationship even in the past wasn’t that great. Or that it seems to measure team play as much as individual play and it’s very hard to separate. Or that the idea that CF% is repeatable (and hence measures skill) doesn’t hold up as soon as you go beyond a year-to-year horizon… If you continue to go with CF% as your touchstone, you’re getting further from the results on the ice, not closer.

    Your detailed critique of Drai’s performance is well argued. One quibble. You seem to think Drai’s CF% is his cross to bear but lady luck will just snatch his ONSH% away from him now that he’s making the big bucks. Well, if she does, you’ll be proved right. He was an OK player who ran hot in the right place at the right time (with the right clueless GM) to cash in. I’ll congratulate you for making the right call if that comes to pass.

  68. OriginalPouzar says:

    speeds: I’m not a big believer in deadline trades, although like everything it depends on the specifics.I think teams are often paying too much for what they get back.

    I don’t disagree but I think we can likely agree that, notwithstanding our general hesitation with the deadline deal, if the team looks to be like contenders at the time, our GM will be involved in the game.

    I would very much like him to be astute when he is making these trades – picks can be so easily traded and disregarded but I sure hope he understands the value they provide to the franchise going forward.

    With that said, if we at a top team but are weak at a position and there is a trade available that should serve to make the team that much better – how can we not do it?

  69. GCW_69 says:

    Man, I had pinned a tweet on my twitter feed that said signing Russell, while not good, wasn’t the problem. Giving him any trade protection was. Now with the overpay on Leon’s deal that trade protection on Russell is a killer.

    Nuge is as good as gone. A true dead man walking. It’s too bad because it didn’t have to be that way.

    Cap management has always been Chiarelli’s weakness. Never leave a lawyer in charge of numbers. You

  70. GMB3 says:

    ‪https://twitter.com/oilersnerdalert/status/898737248291520514‬

    Interesting graph!

  71. Woodguy v2.0 says:

    Georges,

    That’s not good. It’s a question because it has an answer. Knowing the answer is relevant to statements you make about PDO.

    Whey you said “one period to the next” I assumed one period of hockey to the next period of hockey.

    PDO by period is not relevant at all.

    If I misunderstood “period” then my bad.

    You picked an arbitrary cutoff of 10%.

    Not arbitrary at all.

    I picked 10% because of the fact that no one has attained 11% long term and only 2% of players in the sample attained 10%.

    Leon’s ONSH% for the playoffs was 12.9% and his ONSH% was 16.2% away from McDavid.

    I picked that to show how hot Leon ran and therefore how you cannot count on him having 12.9% ONSH% long term, let alone 16.2%

    I get the sense that you think CF% is what the player deserves and the rest is luck.

    No, I don’t say that. It really depends on how you define luck. If playing circumstance is luck, then call it luck.

    If you play with Crosby and have Lundqvist in net, you will have a high PDO. Is that luck? Depends on how you define luck.

    As though CF% is some kind of durable truth. Not sure how many times I have to bring up the currently very weak relationship between CF% and GF%. As in, CF% tells us barely anything about GF%. Or that the strength of the relationship even in the past wasn’t that great. Or that it seems to measure team play as much as individual play and it’s very hard to separate. Or that the idea that CF% is repeatable (and hence measures skill) doesn’t hold up as soon as you go beyond a year-to-year horizon… If you continue to go with CF% as your touchstone, you’re getting further from the results on the ice, not closer.

    What I’ve done is observed the relationship between CF% and GF% on the player level for 10 years and know the correlation to be significant.

    A lot of the deviation from CF% to GF% can be described by ONSH% and ONSV%.

    They are certainly not everything though.

    One quibble. You seem to think Drai’s CF% is his cross to bear but lady luck will just snatch his ONSH% away from him now that he’s making the big bucks.

    I said nothing of the sort.

    Why put words in my mouth?

    Here’s the quote:

    I think that will converge on 1000 pretty soon as the ONSV% should increase this year and next. Not sure if the ONSH% will increase. That will probably depend on how much he plays with McDavid who has a ONSH% of 10.7%

    That’s a far, far cry from how you described it and frankly that kind of stuff is below you.

    McDavid looks to be one of the few to sustain a 10%+ ONSH%.

    If Drai plays a lot with McDavid his ONSH% will go up.

    If he does not, it may not as he’s at a career 8.8% which is above average.

    I didn’t mention “lady luck” or “big bucks”

  72. Professor Q says:

    Seismic Source:
    Lewis Grant,

    Arnott was elite. The points don’t tell the story there. If Drai turns into Arnott. Winning.

    Whether he does Arnott, we are still in for quite the adventure in the next 8-9 years.

  73. jtblack says:

    Woodguy v2.0,

    WOW. On your original post with all the data. I know there are many reasons to love Nuge. He works hard, he was a #1 pick, he is a “good soldier”, he has skill, he has potential to rebound. BUT, your data clearly shows he struggles or has struggled the last couple of seasons in his role. Even against Ana when Leon went to 2C and nuge was facing some lesser comp, he didn’t deliver any Offense ..

    It’s not Nuge’s fault he was given a contract for $6 mil per, but he doesn’t seem to be delivering $6 Mil per of value and as per your data, looks very replaceable at a much cheaper cap hit …

    Great Post(s) …

  74. Kepler62 says:

    I think Chiarelli knows the value of Nuge and will do what he can to keep him.

    Eberle is a great player, but he wasn’t a vital piece to building a Stanley Cup team with the current pieces. Nuge very well could be and I think management and the coaches recognize that, based on verbal.

    The only way I see him going is if their is no plausible way to keep him and stay under the cap. Unfortunately, Lowetide is correct that if Nuge stays, someone else is going. I don’t see any other way. I do however have trust that management will make the right decision on which players are more valuable to the team.

    Let’s pray for a Stanley this year so if Little Nugey goes at least we’ll get to see the smile on his face.

  75. jtblack says:

    OriginalPouzar,

    “Its going to be a very sad day if (when) we have to trade the Nuge. The team is going to get worse on that day, in fact, the team might get much worse.” –

    OP: A lot of people had the same narrative in regards to Hall … Just because a decent to good player is moved out, doesn’t necessarily equate to the team being worse or much worse …. One side of the coin is that Nuge is so great and we cannot get by without him (what you are implying); but the other side is that almost ALL players are replaceable .. Next man up … Woodguy has shown that there are quite a few options to replace Nuge’s statistical impact .. Someone will replace his minutes; they could be worse than him, but by how much?

    Hall left and his icetime was given to Lucic and Maroon (Top 2 LW’s). They scored 23 and 27 Goals … Did they completely replace Hall? No. Did they do an adequate job replacing Hall’s goals? Yes. The team did not get much worse at Left wing (it can be argued they got slightly worse); but they also got much better at RHD. The overall impact of losing a good player was not that the team got much worse ….

    I see the same for a possible RNH move … The team will stay about equal, depending who replaces his role AND what is coming back in the trade …

  76. who says:

    Sekera will have 1 more year of full NMC next summer so trading him is probably not possible. Trading Strome and not re signing Maroon is probably the only way Nuge stays after next summer.

  77. OriginalPouzar says:

    I didn’t have that narrative with Hall.

    I understand what you are saying but there is a massive difference between the Hall trade and what i foresee out of a potential Nuge trade.

    The Hall trade was about trading for value, a material player to fill a large hole.

    The Nuge trade will be almost solely about cap space. I originally thought that the Nuge trade would be for a lesser player (like a Gallagher) and a secondary piece (prospect) but I now think the trade may bring no material player back to the roster and be solely for picks/prospects.

    In that scenario, we are losing Nuge with nothing added to the roster (its essentially paying for half of McDavid’s cap hit increase) – sure it will provide opportunity for another player or two but I don’t see any possible scenario where simply deleting Nuge from our roster does nothing but make the team worse.

  78. jtblack says:

    OriginalPouzar,

    Fair enough that makes sense to me

  79. godot10 says:

    Woodguy v2.0: That’s true.

    Nelson also had Klefbom full time while Eakins didn’t.

    He was called up in early November.

    Rookie, but a damn fine one.

    Klefbom and Marincin were available, not hurt. Eakins make a choice to play Brad Hunt and Keith Aulie instead. Put the other two in the minors.

  80. Offside says:

    The ironic thing is that once Nuge is traded it means all that intentional losing to gain Stanley Cup caliber talent will have failed but we gained it (McD, Drai) when we ceased the philosophy of deliberate tanking for high picks
    I don’t believe in karma but there it is

  81. John Chambers says:

    Woodguy v2.0,

    Re: Nuge

    Great work compiling the list. I would argue however that the results are complimentary to RNH. The players around him like Dubinsky, Stastny, and MacKinnon are top-quality and there’s no shame in being in the bottom third of it.

    Moreover, who takes those tough minutes with Nuge gone? McDavid? Letestu?

    It’s a yeoman service, and at $6M for another four it’s a bargain contract.

  82. Nuclear leak says:

    if you walk away thinking Eberle’s contract is closer to value then Nuge, you’re doing it wrong, no numbers will save you.

    If Hopkins only ask was to play right wing, rely solely on your shot, with bare minimum effort on the defensive side.. what sort of madness have tainted the air to believe he wouldn’t in the least equal Eberle’s offensive output, while being under 25 still.

    Ebs has already lost his first step, completely stalling out developing his shot. Reality is his best performances are behind him and while the return might not be glorious, and cap spent unwisely, Nugent Hopkins is still closer to value then Eberle will ever be again.

  83. OriginalPouzar says:

    I hate to bring it back up but all this talk about cap hell going forward has brought the Russell contract back to the top of my mind.

    How the heck did he get any trade protection in that contract let alone a NMC?

    I am a fan of Chiarelli’s overall body of work and try not to nitpick on particular deals but he lost on salary, term and trade protection on that deal.

    I understand the jam he felt he was in with the 2nd pairing and the Sekera injury but, sigh

  84. John Chambers says:

    OriginalPouzar,

    Couldn’t agree more.

    Chiarelli covered off most of the offseason’s priorities:
    – Got McD and Drai signed long-term
    – Got a quality 3rd line C for low dollars (Hanzal was always going to cost too much)

    But failed in the following regard:
    – Didn’t get a RH puck-moving D
    – Didn’t avoid any bad contracts that will force a core player (Nuge, Sek, or Maroon) to be moved next summer.

    Russell is short-term gain with long-term pain. If instead Chiarelli had traded for Schlemko or Methot I think we’re in an equivalent position short-term and a a superior position next summer.

    One thing Chia did do well however was retain draft picks. In defense of management I think they’re looking at this with a 10-year focus, so despite likely losing Sekera and / or Maroon next summer we’ll continue to have good young players step in.

  85. Showerhead says:

    Woodguy v2.0: Got it and sent!

    Sorry for forgetting your sn!

    I feel shame.

    No worries. Clearly laid out data is an excellent atonement!

    There are so many random tidbits I’ve taken:

    1) Sidney Crosby is an absolute freak. $8.7M for what he brings is a steal.
    2) Patrice Bergeron, a tier below Crosby, is another freak. It’s a wonder to me I don’t hear/talk/read more about him. That both anchor Team Canada (plus, of course, CMFMcD) makes the NHL’s dodging of the Olympics a shame, IMO.
    3) Jordan Staal is a guy I’d long stopped caring about but at 53.5 CF% and 57.3 DFF% it looks like he became what was hoped of him. I thought he was overrated for a few years after all of the shorthanded goals in his rookie(?) season but I like his value now.
    4) As far as the next generation goes, Johansen (with fanfare) and Couturier (quietly, as far as I can tell) are both becoming what was hoped of them.

    Those are my first impressions of the league as a whole. It could be a couple of days before I put my brain to looking for something deeper but freaking cool. Thank you for the data.

    As for Nuge.

    That his pts 60, CF%, and DFF% march almost in lock step with Frans Nielsen near the bottom of this list are a bit saddening to me. Even if you’re worried about the McDavid effect and leave relative metrics out of it, there’s little to be thrilled about.

    The questions become:
    Do these numbers reflect the expected value of RNH moving forward?
    Did that 2016 wrist injury impact his 16/17 numbers?
    Is he capable of reclaiming his role as a powerplay witch?

    and

    Even if he is capable of reclaiming his role as a powerplay witch, does a team led by Connor McDavid really need that guy?

    WAIT. I just googled the ages of every player on that list. Baby Nuge is the 3rd youngest and looks good compared to MacKinnon and Horvat who both younger than he is.

    A new question that could change everything for me:

    Is there any evidence that tough match-up centres get better with age / past 23 years old? An aging curve for match-up centres, as far as I can tell, is the final piece of evidence I would want to look at to evaluate RNH.

  86. flyfish1168 says:

    who:
    Sekera will have 1 more year of full NMC next summer so trading him is probably not possible. Trading Strome and not re signing Maroon is probably the only way Nuge stays after next summer.

    Unfortunately not re-signing Maroon is very realistic. I hope we find a way to keep him. The idea of having Zack, Milan and Pat in the lineup for toughness and a some truculence on each line is important for team toughness. Having a few tough guys help the Oilers play bigger and more intimidating. JMHO

  87. Georges says:

    Woodguy v2.0,

    Hmm… my offense giving subprocessor is malfunctioning.

    I did say “you seem to think” because I don’t know what you think. But the color and tone I added was my own.

    Apologies.

    Is it fair to say you don’t think Drai will cover the bet?

    Also,

    What I’ve done is observed the relationship between CF% and GF% on the player level for 10 years and know the correlation to be significant.

    A lot of the deviation from CF% to GF% can be described by ONSH% and ONSV%.

    They are certainly not everything though.

    The correlation between player CF% and GF% in a season is significant. But the effect size is weak; typically variance in CF% accounts for about 10% of the variance in GF%. It’s better than nothing, but corsi advocates (not saying you) tend to overstate it.

    PDO and SF% explain over 90% of the variance in team points per game. That’s close to everything at the team level. I haven’t looked at the player level, but the underlying math suggests to me that the results would be similar.

  88. John Chambers says:

    Showerhead,

    Basically ALL of those players, except Crosby and a few others, took 2-4 years to make the NHL and another season or two until they became fulltime top-6 centres.

    Nuge has been playing that role for years. In many ways you could argue that his progress has stalled, but in another you could argue that he’s developing a more rounded skill set.

    This payer will deliver more offence (I bet last season represented a low bar for the player), while he probably climbs to 50% on the dot eventually.

    Way way to early to write off Nuge or suggest he’s at his ceiling.

  89. OriginalPouzar says:

    WAIT. I just googled the ages of every player on that list. Baby Nuge is the 3rd youngest and looks good compared to MacKinnon and Horvat who both younger than he is.

    A new question that could change everything for me:

    Is there any evidence that tough match-up centres get better with age / past 23 years old? An aging curve for match-up centres, as far as I can tell, is the final piece of evidence I would want to look at to evaluate RNH.

    There has been a shift in the NHL and peak is now seen as early-mid 20s. That is for offensive production. As far as overall game, defensive acumen, 2-way play, etc. I would say that Nuge is still far from his peak and these are skills that peak in the customary 27-32 age bracket.

  90. OriginalPouzar says:

    flyfish1168: Unfortunately not re-signing Maroon is very realistic. I hope we find a way to keep him. The idea of having Zack, Milan and Pat in the lineup for toughness and a some truculence on each line is important for team toughness.Having a few tough guys help the Oilers play bigger and more intimidating.JMHO

    A player that is batting above his average due to playing with (and having chemistry with McDavid) is exactly the type of player that needs to be let go once he used that opportunity to sign an expensive contract.

    On that note, Maroon is the perfect example of a player that needs to go after next season to be replaced by someone cheaper (be it Caggulia, Strome, Yamamoto, JP, Slepy, etc.).

    With that said, Maroon is more than just McDavid’s left winger – he is part of the new identity of this team – the team toughness, the skilled size, the “play for and protect your teammates”, the “swagger”.

    It was only a couple of years ago that he was a bubble NHLer and, given his age, I can’t imagine he won’t be looking for a big contract – this is his one chance.

    I can’t see him signing for less than $4M/year even if he regresses and puts up 22 goals/48 points.

    I just don’t see him being an Oiler in 2018/19.

  91. Showerhead says:

    John Chambers:
    Showerhead,

    Basically ALL of those players, except Crosby and a few others, took 2-4 years to make the NHL and another season or two until they became fulltime top-6 centres.

    Nuge has been playing that role for years. In many ways you could argue that his progress has stalled, but in another you could argue that he’s developing a more rounded skill set.

    This payer will deliver more offence (I bet last season represented a low bar for the player), while he probably climbs to 50% on the dot eventually.

    Way way to early to write off Nuge or suggest he’s at his ceiling.

    OriginalPouzar: There has been a shift in the NHL and peak is now seen as early-mid 20s.That is for offensive production. As far as overall game, defensive acumen, 2-way play, etc. I would say that Nuge is still far from his peak and these are skills that peak in the customary 27-32 age bracket.

    I think you’re both saying similar (and very reasonable) things. Based on my current understanding of age curves, I do believe in an early 20’s peak for offense. Just like each of you, I would suspect the two-way curve lags behind this.

    I’d still want to look at a DFF% aging curve. Are our assumptions right?

    Questions on my mind: If improvement is on its way, how much can we expect? By what age? And how strong are the correlations involved – does it look like a crapshoot that demands an exhaustive study of context for each player or are there some general rules we can take away?

  92. who says:

    OriginalPouzar: A player that is batting above his average due to playing with (and having chemistry with McDavid) is exactly the type of player that needs to be let go once he used that opportunity to sign an expensive contract.

    On that note, Maroon is the perfect example of a player that needs to go after next season to be replaced by someone cheaper (be it Caggulia, Strome, Yamamoto, JP, Slepy, etc.).

    With that said, Maroon is more than just McDavid’s left winger – he is part of the new identity of this team – the team toughness, the skilled size, the “play for and protect your teammates”, the “swagger”.

    It was only a couple of years ago that he was a bubble NHLer and, given his age, I can’t imagine he won’t be looking for a big contract – this is his one chance.

    I can’t see him signing for less than $4M/year even if he regresses and puts up 22 goals/48 points.

    I just don’t see him being an Oiler in 2018/19.

    Maroon was playing well last year before they put him with Macdavid.
    I like the player but would prefer to keep Nuge. I don’t want to give him a long term contract because his skills are duplicated by Lucic and his feet just aren’t quick enough.

  93. Woodguy v2.0 says:

    Georges,

    Is it fair to say you don’t think Drai will cover the bet?

    He can, but I think 4-5 years have to go by for the cap to go up and more players be in his range.

    Right now you have:

    Scheifele at $6.125 for 7 more years
    Monahan at 6.375 for 6 more years
    Barkov at $5.9 for 5 more years
    Forsberg at $6.0 for 5 more years
    Saad at $6.0 for 4 more years
    Stephan at $6.5 for 4 more years
    Gaudreau at $6.75 for 5 more years
    O’Reilly at $7.5 for 6 more years
    Tarasenko at $7.5 for 6 more years

    In order for Drai to be value he has to better than all these players (and more, but they are the high end examples)

    He has the 10th highest cap hit in the NHL and will have the 6th highest highest cap hit among centers next year and probably 7th when McDavid’s kicks in next year.

    He has to give results commensurate with that slotting without the help of McDavid on the same line to cover the bet.

    In the next 4-5 years I’m not sure he can do that.

    I sure hope so.

    The correlation between player CF% and GF% in a season is significant. But the effect size is weak; typically variance in CF% accounts for about 10% of the variance in GF%. It’s better than nothing, but corsi advocates (not saying you) tend to overstate it.

    Can you link to this work?

    Its not what I’m familiar with.

  94. OriginalPouzar says:

    who: Maroon was playing well last year before they put him with Macdavid.
    I like the player but would prefer to keep Nuge. I don’t want to give him a long term contract because his skills are duplicated by Lucic and his feet just aren’t quick enough.

    Yes, we was playing well without McDavid but I’m fairly confident he isn’t approaching 25 even strength goals with any other player in the NHL save for a few.

    I’d love to keep the player but I think he’s the prime candidate for a player that will make more than he would normally be worth because of situation and a player who’s offence on the first line can be replicated by a player that will be cheaper.

    I’m loathe to let the other tangibles/intangibles go but it is what it is.

  95. Woodguy v2.0 says:

    Showerhead,

    A new question that could change everything for me:
    Is there any evidence that tough match-up centres get better with age / past 23 years old? An aging curve for match-up centres, as far as I can tell, is the final piece of evidence I would want to look at to evaluate RNH.

    That’s a really good question.

    We’ll have historical WoodMoney’s soon and we can examine it then.

    I always forget how old Nuge is.

    Seems like he’s been around forever.

    Maybe being dazzled by Coutuier’s results have me down on Nuge since they are from the same draft class.

    O’Reilly’s been doing it well for a while as well, and he’s 2 years older than Nuge.

    Kadri is 2 years older as well and this is the first time he’s had results like this.

    Maybe he can regain the results he had when he was 21 (!!)

    GMoney had something on RNH and Drai today too, worth a read: https://oilersnerdalert.wordpress.com/2017/08/19/comparing-nuges-oranges-and-draisaitls-oranges/

  96. Woodguy v2.0 says:

    Nuclear leak:

    Nuge pts/gm over his career: 0.67
    Eberle pts/gm over his career: 0.75

    NHL pays for points.

    Eberle is a top 30 winger in terms of points/gm
    Nuge is not a 30 center in terms of points/gm

    That’s why I talked about value.

    Last year 0.75 was good for 45th among forwards in pts/gm
    Last year 0.67 was good for 84th among forwards in pts/gm

    That’s a big gap.

    Are points stats and not admissible anymore?

  97. flyfish1168 says:

    OriginalPouzar: A player that is batting above his average due to playing with (and having chemistry with McDavid) is exactly the type of player that needs to be let go once he used that opportunity to sign an expensive contract.

    On that note, Maroon is the perfect example of a player that needs to go after next season to be replaced by someone cheaper (be it Caggulia, Strome, Yamamoto, JP, Slepy, etc.).

    With that said, Maroon is more than just McDavid’s left winger – he is part of the new identity of this team – the team toughness, the skilled size, the “play for and protect your teammates”, the “swagger”.

    It was only a couple of years ago that he was a bubble NHLer and, given his age, I can’t imagine he won’t be looking for a big contract – this is his one chance.

    I can’t see him signing for less than $4M/year even if he regresses and puts up 22 goals/48 points.

    I just don’t see him being an Oiler in 2018/19.

    Please read my post again. You are misinterpreting what I have written.

  98. OriginalPouzar says:

    I don’t think I am disagreeing with your post – in fact, I think I agree with it.

    As I stated above: “With that said, Maroon is more than just McDavid’s left winger – he is part of the new identity of this team – the team toughness, the skilled size, the “play for and protect your teammates”, the “swagger”.”.

    I too hope that they can keep Maroon but I’m just not sure it will the make most sense.

    Even if he regresses to a more reasonable 22G (give or take), I think he will be looking to get paid (at least $4M with term – term for sure) and I believe his offence can be replaced at 1LW by a much cheaper contract.

    I love the size, the skilled size, the toughness, etc., however, I don’t think its enough to make up for the difference is cap hit at the position.

  99. Georges says:

    Woodguy v2.0:
    Georges,

    Is it fair to say you don’t think Drai will cover the bet?

    He can, but I think 4-5 years have to go by for the cap to go up and more players be in his range.

    Right now you have:

    Scheifele at $6.125 for 7 more years
    Monahan at 6.375 for 6 more years
    Barkov at $5.9 for 5 more years
    Forsberg at $6.0 for 5 more years
    Saad at $6.0 for 4 more years
    Stephan at $6.5 for 4 more years
    Gaudreau at $6.75 for 5 more years
    O’Reilly at $7.5 for 6 more years
    Tarasenko at $7.5 for 6 more years

    In order for Drai to be value he has to better than all these players (and more, but they are the high end examples)

    He has the 10th highest cap hit in the NHL and will have the 6th highest highest cap hit among centers next year and probably 7th when McDavid’s kicks in next year.

    He has to give results commensurate with that slotting without the help of McDavid on the same line to cover the bet.

    In the next 4-5 years I’m not sure he can do that.

    I sure hope so.

    The correlation between player CF% and GF% in a season is significant. But the effect size is weak; typically variance in CF% accounts for about 10% of the variance in GF%. It’s better than nothing, but corsi advocates (not saying you) tend to overstate it.

    Can you link to this work?

    Its not what I’m familiar with.

    I hope so too. $8.5M is a lot of money when you’re not sure of the player (RFA). But by the time you’re sure, the player’s certain to get worse (UFA). Here’s to Drai being fairly paid for his most productive years. Imagine that universe! (I really, really hope he’s uncommonly driven to win…)

    If you have Manny’s 5v5 player data (which I’m assuming you do), you can just pivot table over seasons and do the correlations yourself in Excel. I did it just for forwards from 07-08 to 15-16. Didn’t get the 16-17 data before he took down the site.

  100. Woodguy v2.0 says:

    Georges,

    If you have Manny’s 5v5 player data (which I’m assuming you do), you can just pivot table over seasons and do the correlations yourself in Excel. I did it just for forwards from 07-08 to 15-16. Didn’t get the 16-17 data before he took down the site.

    I think I have it, but I have a ton of excel sheets but only organized the ones I was working on with specific purpose.

    I wasn’t referring to CF% predicting future GF%, but describing the GF% in the same season.

  101. Johnny says:

    WG, we didn’t get your take on the hypothetical Hall for Drai deal.

    A no brainer, no?

  102. Georges says:

    Here’s what I get:

    Correlation between forward CF% and GF% in same season.

    Season, r, r^2

    07-08, .397, .157
    08-09, .444, .197
    09-10, .394, .155
    10-11, .387, .150
    11-12, .398, .159
    12-13, .366, .134
    13-14, .383, .147
    14-15, .454, .206
    15-16, .360, .130
    16-17, .229, .053

    The average r^2 is higher than the .10 I quoted in my earlier comment. Should’ve checked before typing. But it’s still a weak relationship and it’s weaker in the last two years.

    I did the 16-17 calculation using the detailed game by game corsica dataset that someone made available recently. Forgot I had that.

    This is for all forwards. If you exclude forwards based on TOI or GP then you’ll see an improvement. I didn’t try to shape the results though.

  103. Johnny says:

    BTW, I agree with your data. Nuge has forever been overvalued as a defensive stalwart due to him having a clue coming out of junior. We were used to the likes of Samwise. Unfortunately it’s a mans game and baby Nuge is fighting an uphill battle there.

    I do like the player, but definitely something that can be replaced with a more suitable option at a lower $.

  104. digger50 says:

    .

  105. Woodguy v2.0 says:

    Johnny:
    WG, we didn’t get your take on the hypothetical Hall for Drai deal.

    A no brainer, no?

    Depends on what your goal is.

    Short term yes, long term no.

    I’m just upset that this team had McDavid, Drai and Hall and it was pissed away because Peter didn’t understand how good Klefbom was and that he didn’t need to spend Hall to get a RHD.

  106. Woodguy v2.0 says:

    Georges:
    Here’s what I get:

    Correlation between forward CF% and GF% in same season.

    Season, r, r^2

    07-08, .397, .157
    08-09, .444, .197
    09-10, .394, .155
    10-11, .387, .150
    11-12, .398, .159
    12-13, .366, .134
    13-14, .383, .147
    14-15, .454, .206
    15-16, .360, .130
    16-17, .229, .053

    The average r^2 is higher than the .10 I quoted in my earlier comment. Should’ve checked before typing. But it’s still a weak relationship and it’s weaker in the last two years.

    I did the 16-17 calculation using the detailed game by game corsica dataset that someone made available recently. Forgot I had that.

    This is for all forwards. If you exclude forwards based on TOI or GP then you’ll see an improvement. I didn’t try to shape the results though.

    Thanks for that.

    yeah, if you get rid of the samples under 300min it shows a bit different

  107. matt says:

    Pump Russell, trade him for picks at the deadline, and replace with Auvitu? That lets Nuge stay.

Leave a Reply

Want to join the discussion?
Feel free to contribute!
© Copyright - Lowetide.ca