SLAP SHOT!

Before July 1, Peter Chiarelli talked about Anton Slepyshev and growth, and his actions in free agency spoke volumes. In adding names like Jussi Jokinen, Yohann Auvitu and Ty Rattie, the general manager indicated his belief in men like Slepyshev and Matt Benning.

As we get ready for training camp, one of the major questions surrounds the identity of the lucky young forward who will join Connor McDavid, Leon Draisaitl, Ryan Nugent Hopkins, Patrick Maroon and Milan Lucic in Edmonton’s top 6F. I think Anton Slepyshev is the most logical addition, either as RW on the Lucic-Draisaitl line or as RW with Lucic and Ryan Nugent-Hopkins. I bet many of you feel Drake Caggiula or Jesse Puljujarvi are a better option, and if Puljujarvi was 20 I might agree (and the Finn could put this all to rest by November, he is the most talented and has the highest potential career curve).

It’s also true that one of those three men could be included in a trade deadline deal ala Brandon Davidson. You know, last time the Oilers made a massive deadline push (I think Chiarelli will empty the chamber at the 2018 deadline) was 2006 and it was fast and furious.

  • January 26, 2006: Traded prospect Jani Rita and Cory Cross to Pittsburgh for Dick Tarnstrom.
  • January 26, 2006: Traded prospect Tony Salmelainen to Chicago for Jaroslav Spacek.
  • March 8, 2006: Traded first-round pick (No. 17 Trevor Lewis) and third-round pick (No. 67 Spencer Michacek) to Minnesota for Dwayne Roloson.
  • March 9, 2006: Traded Marty Reasoner, Yan Stastny and second-round selection (No. 50 Milan Lucic) to Boston for Sergei Samsonov.

That’s a helluva lot of talent sent away for one deadline (three picks, two players) and the Oilers got just one keeper in Roloson out of the deal. In today’s terms, I think the best way of describing the 2018 cost of that SCF deadline would be Edmonton’s first, second and third-round picks, plus Anton Lander (Rita) and Bogdan Yakimov (Salmelainen). The Oilers system isn’t strong enough to send away that much talent but we could see substantial movement if Slepyshev, Puljujarvi and Caggiula don’t fill the required slots in the batting order.

PULJUJARVI IN THE AHL

I wrote an item over at OilersNation on the weekend, using Prospect-Stats.com as a guide to show the top estimated points-per-60 (5×5) in the AHL among forwards 20 years or less. Puljujarvi ranked No. 11, was the highest-ranking 18-year old and third highest teenager (Jake DeBrusk, Timo Meier) in the ranking. That’s probably the most encouraging measure I’ve seen in regard to young JP.

TRAINING CAMP INVITES

Every day that goes by without a free-agent signing gets us closer to useful players coming on as PTO additions. One year ago, the Edmonton Oilers brought in Kris Versteeg, Eric Gryba and Ryan Vesce. This year, I think most of us wonder if Jared Cowen gets an invite (he was in Edmonton taking a physical July 1) and there are other names out there (Dennis Wideman, Daniel Winnik, Cody Franson, Jaromir freaking Jagr) who would have to be of interest. Jarome Iginla is also a possibility. My guess? The defensemen are possible but the Oilers are going to remain true to their word on giving the kids up front a chance to wheel. Kailer Yamamoto is also in the picture, in my opinion.

IF THE KIDS ARE READY, PLAY THEM!

I’ve always believed (and Earl Weaver taught me) that when a young player is ready to compete at a certain level the best thing to do is elevate him to that level immediately. Don’t put him in a position to fail, but rather take the things he does well and place him in ideal circumstances at the higher level. I think the monetary argument is a secondary consideration (honestly) and that player development should be the only real concern. If Jesse Puljujarvi is ready to play in a feature role at the NHL level, then that’s the right play. The numbers above are encouraging, as mentioned the biggest arrow going in the right direction I’ve seen this summer. This rule also applies to Kailer Yamamoto.

THE SUN!

If you look directly into the sun during the eclipse without the proper eye protection, I’m driving over to you in my car and kicking you in the nuts. And you won’t be able to stop me because you won’t see jack squat. Seriously.

THE NUUUGE

While the fools are looking at the eclipse (seriously, just watch the noon or six o’clock news, you’ll see more), I recommend you put that time to better use and read this brilliant article from GMoney. Context is important, and even more than that in these days of McDavid miracle and wonder.

LOWDOWN WITH LOWETIDE

We’re back! I swear this time for good. We kick off a big week at 10 this morning, TSN1260. I shan’t be looking into the sun, my guests are scheduled to be:

  • Alex Thomas, The Oilers Rig. Should the Oilers bring in a winger on a PTO? Plus BoSox and Patriots.
  • Andy McNamara, TSN4Downs. NFL gearing up, Bills sad sacks.
  • Jason Gregor, TSN1260. Eskimos make a big and astute trade.
  • Jimmy Sullivan, Edmonton Prospects. It was a helluva year.

10-1260 text, @Lowetide on twitter. See you on the radio!

 

 

written by

The author didn‘t add any Information to his profile yet.
Related Posts

80 Responses to "SLAP SHOT!"

  1. Bar_Qu says:

    While the fools are looking at the eclipse (seriously, just watch the noon or six o’clock news, you’ll see more)

    Don’t let Bruce catch you saying that! Though I do plan on checking his twitter feed just after lunch to see what he posts picture-wise.

    I keep circling back to the Iginla thing. I don’t think he is a great fit except for the fact he could score 20 shooting right on the PP. Plus character, gritensity, etc.

    My personal choice would’ve been Jagr, but that boat has sailed imo.

  2. OriginalPouzar says:

    The roster is pretty much set and there doesn’t seem to be very many battles shaping up to be had at camp.

    Assuming we keep 8 d-men there are two spots for Simpson, Auvitu, Stanton.

    Assuming we keep 8 d-men, there is one spot for Kharia, Pakarinen, Rattie.

    As far as roster positioning, there are so many forwards that seem to be able to move up and down the lineup, it will be tough to say but, yes, the one battle we pretty much know we have is for a top 6 RW job.

    Depending on where Leon and Strome and Nuge play, there may be one spot or there may be two.

    Some think Kassian should play 1RW and he does have some offensive talent but his success is predicated on the aggressive forecheck and skating and I’d be afraid he’d change his game if playing with more talented players – I’d keep him in the bottom 6.

    There is likely a spot in the top 6 RW for either Slep or JP and, I think LT is right, Slepy, given his playoffs, has the inside track on the spot.

    With that said, Slepy hasn’t quite proven to be worthy of that spot – his offence has been spotty as a pro and, if I’m not mistaken, his ESP/60 were very poor last year.

    With that said, he can skate and shoot but, then again, so could Chad Kilger and Josh Green.

    Does he have the hockey sense to produce at a top 6 level? I’m not so sure.

  3. Jethro Tull says:

    “If you look directly into the sun during the eclipse without the proper eye protection, I’m driving over to you in my car and kicking you in the nuts. And you won’t be able to stop me because you won’t see jack squat. Seriously.”

    Damnit, you’re no fun. Back to running with scissors it is, then.

  4. Jethro Tull says:

    I would love Jagr just so i can get a legitimate Oilers Jagr jersey, and for him to take just one shift with McDavid so we can say, “remember that time McDavid played with Jagr…”

    But seriously? Isn’t this what we want, the kids slowly rising up through the ranks, earning while learning, always given responsibilities equal to their skill?

  5. Seismic Source says:

    I’d like to see Kassian get some minutes on Connors RW. At least enough so we can check a box.

  6. leadfarmer says:

    Jethro Tull:
    I would love Jagr just so i can get a legitimate Oilers Jagr jersey, and for him to take just one shift with McDavid so we can say, “remember that time McDavid played with Jagr…”

    But seriously?Isn’t this what we want, the kids slowly rising up through the ranks, earning while learning, always given responsibilities equal to their skill?

    Remember that time McDavid pushed Jagr around the ice and still outskated everybody

  7. OriginalPouzar says:

    I don’t see a Jagr signing.

    Chiarelli mentioned after the Drai signing that he may bring a player or two to camp on a tryout basis – I don’t see that being Jagr – maybe Iginla or Doan but probably not.

    More of a Wideman type idea.

    I really think that Chia wants to run with the current options on RW and then evaluate a quarter/half in to the season.

    The more cap room we save this year the less chance we have bonus overages in to next year.

  8. OriginalPouzar says:

    Seismic Source:
    I’d like to see Kassian get some minutes on Connors RW.At least enough so we can check a box.

    I spoke to this in my previous post and I firmly am against that notion.

    Yes, Kassian has some skill – he’s got some nice hands and can likely put up more points than he’s shown.

    With that said, Kassian’s resurgence has been a function of him re-inventing his game. He has had success because he is now an energy player – in order to stay successful at ES, Kass has to skate, be aggressive and take the body. His offensive chances will flow off that energy and the creation of turnovers.

    My fear if he plays up the lineup is that he’ll change his game to try and play more of a skill game and lose what has made him successful.

    The history of the NHL is littered with very good bottom six players that move up the lineup, change their games and are no longer successful until put back in their original spot in the lineup.

  9. Bar_Qu says:

    OriginalPouzar,

    I think Kassian would play a little with McD, only because Kassian will play all over, as the coach sees the need. Whenever the team is lagging, I think McClellan sees Kassian as the solution to bring the energy & would move him up the batting order. That said, I would expect it wouldn’t be much over 100 min this year.

  10. Seismic Source says:

    OriginalPouzar,

    We don’t know that until we see it is my point.

  11. OriginalPouzar says:

    Bar_Qu:
    OriginalPouzar,

    I think Kassian would play a little with McD, only because Kassian will play all over, as the coach sees the need. Whenever the team is lagging, I think McClellan sees Kassian as the solution to bring the energy & would move him up the batting order. That said, I would expect it wouldn’t be much over 100 min this year.

    I don’t disagree – there will me much changing in the lines throughout the season and I’m sure that Kassian will play some minutes with McDavid – I wouldn’t slot him in that role to start the season or long term though.

  12. OriginalPouzar says:

    Seismic Source:
    OriginalPouzar,

    We don’t know that until we see it is my point.

    You are right, of course we don’t know it, however, that was my opinion on why I’m against that move.

  13. Woogie63 says:

    This year I see PC assessing Nuge or Driasaitl.

    If Driasaitl can’t dominate at 2C, he needs to deliver +85 points to be a $8.5M winger on Connor’s line.

    If Nuge get +55 points as 2C and plays that 200 foot game, for $6M the Oilers might keep him and the 3-4 NHL players that Draisaitl’s salary will provide.

    PC is very crafty.

  14. Jaxon says:

    OriginalPouzar:
    Assuming we keep 8 d-men there are two spots for Simpson, Auvitu, Stanton.

    I think Paigin, Fayne, and Bear will be pushing for those 2 spots as well. And Paigin may prove to be a difference maker. He did outperform Nikita Zaitsev 2 years ago as a 20 year old when he scored at a NHLe of 48 pts and made the All-star team in the 2nd hardest league in the world. 48 pts represents the highest 20 year old NHLe I’ve tracked outside the NHL. Justin Schultz is the 2nd highest at 41 pts Followed by Goligoski at 34, Liles at 34, Kyle Wood at 33, Clendening at 31, Montour at 29, and LaLeggia at 27. If you compare NHLe to actual NHL scoring at 20 years old the only one higher is Karlsson at 49, Pietrangelo trails at 45, Doughty at 43, Ristolainen at 41, Myers at 38, Carlson at 37 and Hamonic at 34, Faulk at 32, Hamilton at 32, Seth Jones at 31. That season was mindblowing for a 20 year old in the KHL. He’s 6’6″, 209lbs and more known for his defensive game before his offensive outburst 15-16. Zaitsev came over and started with the Leafs without any AHL time and played over 22 minutes per game and got 36 pts. Zaitsev was 24 so his improvement curve has probably levelled off a bit. Paigin is still only 22 and should still be improving a lot every year for the next 3 or 4 years, and many larger D take even longer to develop.

    Bear’s NHLe in the regular season as a 19 year old was pretty amazing, but his playoff performance the past 2 seasons has been astounding. His NHLe for the playoffs was 34pts! I think he may surprise and steal a spot on the roster sooner then expected. For some perspective:

    19 year old Canadian Junior seasons by NHLe:
    Ellis 46,
    Subban 36,
    Sproul 35,
    Bear 34 (playoffs),*small sample size but 17 games in the toughest time of the season against only the better playoff teams is not insignificant.
    Pietrangelo 30,
    Sekera 28,
    BEar 25.3 *(NHLe for playoffs and regular season combined)
    Nurse 24,
    Barrie 24,
    Hamonic 24,
    Bear 23 (regular season), still in great company and most of the players here went straight to NHL from junior.
    R Murphy 23,
    Spurgeon 21,
    Severson 21,
    Stone 21,
    Kyle Wood 21,
    Dumba 20,
    Demers 20,
    Franson 19,
    Cowen 18,
    S Weber 17,
    Staal 17,
    Petrovic 16,
    Davidson 16,
    Pysyk 15,
    Marincin 15,
    Boychuk 12,
    Betker 11,
    Musil 11,
    Reinhart 10

    EDIT: That said, I think only one of them could possibly make it as they don’t want either sitting in the press box. They would have to push Gryba to the press box.

    Klefbom-Larsson
    Nurse-Russell
    Paigin-Benning
    Gryba
    or
    Klefbom-Larsson
    Russell-Benning
    Nurse-Bear
    Gryba
    But most likely is your scenario:
    Klefbom-Larsson
    Russell-Benning
    Nurse-Gryba
    Stanton/Auvitu/Simpson

    Fayne is a bit of a wildcard in all this. Maybe he improved his skating puck skills over the summer and comes to camp on a mission. Maybe that is one of the reasons Chiarelli is leaving some cap space.

    Klefbom-Larsson
    Russell-Fayne
    Nurse-Benning
    Gryba/Stanton/Auvitu/Simpson

  15. OriginalPouzar says:

    Leon’s contract is 8 years long. Leon is currently 21 years old.

    Yes, there is pressure on him to provide value for that contract and that likely means centering his own line and driving that line to be productive.

    With that said, do we expect that this year? That would sure be nice but I think we need to expect some reasonable progression. I expect that type of production from Leon for the majority of the contract but it may take a couple of years of continued to development until he is providing elite level offence on his own.

    I fear the negativity if he doesn’t hit the mark this year even though I believe some continued development may be required.

  16. Jaxon says:

    OriginalPouzar:
    Assuming we keep 8 d-men, there is one spot for Kharia, Pakarinen, Rattie.

    Again, I’m not so sure. I think Brad Malone may prove to be the all purpose utility knife that gets him on the roster. He shoots a fair bit, he hits a lot, he can win faceoffs, he’s got experience that the others don’t. He’s signed for 2 years, which can be a pretty big tell. Plus, he’s not really a developing player and not valued enough around the NHL that they can’t afford to sit him in the press box and don’t have to worry about him getting claimed if he gets sent down.

    I think Gambardella is a long shot, so he’s probably not realistically competing for that spot. I think Benson is better served going back to junior to dominate and regain his confidence.

    LaLeggia may surprise, though. His NHLe since moving to forward to end last season had a NHLe goals total of 20 goals. There is always a spot for goal scorers. I’m also assuming that he may have a solid defensive awareness from playing D, so he may have the coach’s trust. Also, he could provide a great option as a D on the PP. He should be able to play the position better than any other forward.

    So I’d add Malone as a player who might have an inside track and LaLeggia as a possible surprise challenger.

  17. Ribs says:

    *dreaming of a Lucic-Draisatl-Jagr second line*

    They won’t be fast, but good luck getting the puck away from them!

  18. OriginalPouzar says:

    Jaxon: I think Paigin, Fayne, and Bear will be pushing for those 2 spots as well. And Paigin may prove to be a difference maker. He did outperform Nikita Zaitsev 2 years ago as a 20 year old when he scored at a NHLe of 48 pts and made the All-star team in the 2nd hardest league in the world. 48 pts represents the highest 20 year old NHLe I’ve tracked outside the NHL. Justin Schultz is the 2nd highest at 41 pts Followed by Goligoski at 34, Liles at 34, Kyle Wood at 33, Clendening at 31, Montour at 29, and LaLeggia at 27. If you compare NHLe to actual NHL scoring at 20 years old the only one higher is Karlsson at 49, Pietrangelo trails at 45, Doughty at 43, Ristolainen at 41, Myers at 38, Carlson at 37 and Hamonic at 34, Faulk at 32, Hamilton at 32, Seth Jones at 31. That season was mindblowing for a 20 year old in the KHL. He’s 6’6″, 209lbs and more known for his defensive game before his offensive outburst 15-16. Zaitsev came over and started with the Leafs without any AHL time and played over 22 minutes per game and got 36 pts. Zaitsev was 24 so his improvement curve has probably levelled off a bit. Paigin is still only 22 and should still be improving a lot every year for the next 3 or 4 years, and many larger D take even longer to develop.

    Bear’s NHLe in the regular season as a 19 year old was pretty amazing, but his playoff performance the past 2 seasons has been astounding. His NHLe for the playoffs was 34pts! I think he may surprise and steal a spot on the roster sooner then expected. For some perspective:

    19 year old Canadian Junior seasons by NHLe:
    Ellis 46,
    Subban 36,
    Sproul 35,
    Bear 34 (playoffs),*small sample size but 17 games in the toughest time of the season against only the better playoff teams is not insignificant.
    Pietrangelo 30,
    Sekera 28,
    BEar 25.3 *(NHLe for playoffs and regular season combined)
    Nurse 24,
    Barrie 24,
    Hamonic 24,
    Bear 23 (regular season), still in great company and most of the players here went straight to NHL from junior.
    R Murphy 23,
    Spurgeon 21,
    Severson 21,
    Stone 21,
    Kyle Wood 21,
    Dumba 20,
    Demers 20,
    Franson 19,
    Cowen 18,
    S Weber 17,
    Staal 17,
    Petrovic 16,
    Davidson 16,
    Pysyk 15,
    Marincin 15,
    Boychuk 12,
    Betker 11,
    Musil 11,
    Reinhart 10

    Oh my – no, no, no, no.

    Ziyat Paigin potentially – he is 22 years old and played pro hockey. With that said, I think he will need some adjustment time to the North American game – the 5 games in Bakersfied last year showed us that.

    I’m sorry but there is no reasonable expectation for Ethan Bear to make this hockey club. Ethan Bear is a very good prospect – winning WHL d-man of the year is fantastic. He has spiked since his draft day.

    With that said, he is a rookie pro d-man and not an elite prospect. Reasonableness is that this player will need at least a few years until he’s ready for NHL action, if he ever is ready. He is not a can’t miss prospect but a player that needs to work on various areas of his game and improve in the minor leagues.

    I actually expect Bear to struggle a bit at the AHL level to start the year but to come on as the year goes on as he gets used to the speed of the pro game and the strength of the players.

    Don’t get me wrong – I like this prospect but I can’t fathom him being NHL ready this year. A slew of injuries could get him a cup of coffee but he’s right there with Caleb Jones around 13-14 on the depth chart and, in my opinion, Jones is ahead of Bear due to his plus level skating.

  19. OriginalPouzar says:

    Jaxon: Again, I’m not so sure. I think Brad Malone may prove to be the all purpose utility knife that gets him on the roster. He shoots a fair bit, he hits a lot, he can win faceoffs, he’s got experience that the others don’t. He’s signed for 2 years, which can be a pretty big tell. Plus, he’s not really a developing player and not valued enough around the NHL that they can afford to sit him in the press box and don’t have to worry about him getting claimed if he gets sent down.

    I think Gambardella is a long shot, so he’s probably not realistically competing for that spot. I think Benson is better served going back to junior to dominate and regain his confidence.

    LaLeggia may surprise, though. His NHLe since moving to forward to end last season had a NHLe goals total of 20 goals. There is always a spot for goal scorers. I’m also assuming that he may have a solid defensive awareness from playing D, so he may have the coach’s trust. Also, he could provide a great option as a D on the PP. He should be able to play the position better than any other forward.

    So I’d add Malone as a player who might have an inside track and LaLeggia as a possible surprise challenger.

    Agreed on Brad Malone but I seem him a tier below the other guys I mentioned coming in to camp – if the PK struggles early in the year, he may get the call.

    Joey G. is an intriguing prospect but a definite long-shot at this point.

    Joey L. is a wild-card – that offence (goals) sure did take off when moved to forward – I’m very intrigued to see how he does at camp.

    I like all 3 of those player – all three may see NHL time this year (almost for sure Malone), however, coming in to camp, I put them behind JJ, Rattie and Pak.

    That’s what camps for though – they could win roster spots.

  20. digger50 says:

    So the question once again is

    “Is it enough?” Has there been enough off season improvement?

    The last two years when this question was asked some said no, it is not enough. However most felt the team would be fine and had an optimistic view.

    Remember the debate that the Oil should do more while Connor is in his entry level deal? Others said not to worry, they are developing, lots of time. Peter said he was going to evaluate. Coach said they were a growth team.

    Now all I hear is cap hell on the horizon and we may need to move good players we have just developed.

    With all this in mind then, it looks to me like this is the year to push. And sure, deadline rentals can work but they are expensive and have little time to develop chemistry.

    Thus in my opinion, it’s not enough. Peter may have missed the boat this summer, there were some good deals to be had. Still, maybe there is still some good insurance bets yet to be had. He has the depth players covered, he could use proven too end skill.

    Going into last year with no real third line center, testing out Drake in the position was really not acceptable, just foolish in hindsight.

    Last year, it was not enough. This year we are close, oh so close, but everything has to break right. Will the team be good enough with Connor off the ice? Good question.

  21. Showerhead says:

    Randomly chiming in to correct an error I’ve been making re: RNH.

    As for April 12, he’s 24 years old. I’ve been calling him 23 and have noticed others doing the same.

    Why does it matter?

    After looking at Woodguy’s data a couple of days ago, I wondered out loud if there is an aging curve re: tough matchup centres. A lot of work has been done over the years on aging curves for total points production but I haven’t anything in the way of DFF% vs. age for centres who face tough opposition.

    I still think there would be a lot of value there and I still think it may give a little more shine to RNH than we’re currently seeing. I just want to correct myself in having called him 23 a few times this summer.

  22. stush18 says:

    OriginalPouzar,

    I can’t see Malone making the team unless there is an injury to letestu. The AHL team is going to need some centres, that’s the weakest position.

    I’m pretty positive it’s down to rattie/khaira. Pak will slip through waivers pretty easily, imo, and the two yr deal prevents anyone from grabbing Malone. It all depends with how many dman they decide to use at the start of the year.

  23. stush18 says:

    Also I’m pretty high on paigan as well. Coaches spoke pretty high of him when he was in the AHL last year.

    Klefbom-Russell
    Nurse-Larsson
    Paigan-Benning
    Auvitu-Gryba

    Is what I’m seeing for the start of the year.

    Lowe-fayne
    Jones-Simpson
    Stanton-bear
    Betker-mantha

    For the minors to start the year. Am I missing anyone?

  24. Georges says:

    Read the GMoney article. Then went to NST.

    RNH 5v5 GF-GA (GF%)

    Overall*
    35-40 (46.7)

    With Russell
    5-13 (27.8)

    W/O Russell
    30-27 (52.6)

    * Corsica had RNH at 35-39 overall. I’m going with NST’s numbers here.

    27.8 with Russell matches what GMoney got. But he has without at 58.3 while NST has without at 52.6. Running a difference of proportions test on the with and without Russell GF% from NST shows that the difference isn’t significant at the 95% level:

    http://stattrek.com/hypothesis-test/difference-in-proportions.aspx

    Here are a couple of other observations:

    1. RNH has been outscored at 5v5 for the past 3 years according to NST. Here are his results:

    Season, GF-GA (GF%)

    14-15, 52-59 (46.8)
    15-16, 33-39 (45.8)
    16-17, 35-40 (46.7)

    If you’re going to use a prior for RNH’s GF%, the data suggests you maybe shouldn’t set the mean to 50%.

    2. Russell dragged down RNH’s GF% results. That suggests RNH also dragged down Russell’s results. But, hey, Russell got to play with CMD.

    Knowing that no goals were scored in the small amount of time that RNH and CMD were on the ice together, here’s the breakdown of Russell’s results.

    Russell GF-GA (GF%)

    Overall
    41-34 (54.6)

    With CMD
    22-10 (68.8)

    With RNH
    5-13 (27.8)

    W/O RNH and CMD
    14-11 (56.0)

    So the Oilers outscored their opponents when Russell was on the ice w/o RNH and CMD.

    LT, we need to talk about Kris. (Eagerly awaiting the RE…)

  25. digger50 says:

    Excellent read at Oilers nerd alert.

    Very hard to understand what was going on with RNH and all the heat he is reviewing. Didn’t feel right. This article really presents an interesting perspective. If we do see a Nuge to the wing scenario it may give us validation results.

  26. OriginalPouzar says:

    stush18:
    Also I’m pretty high on paigan as well. Coaches spoke pretty high of him when he was in the AHL last year.

    Klefbom-Russell
    Nurse-Larsson
    Paigan-Benning
    Auvitu-Gryba

    Is what I’m seeing for the start of the year.

    Lowe-fayne
    Jones-Simpson
    Stanton-bear
    Betker-mantha

    For the minors to start the year. Am I missing anyone?

    OMG – Russell on the right side of the 1st pairing is one of the worst things I’ve ever heard of.

  27. VOR says:

    I just wanted to briefly mention something that GMoney talks about in his brilliant post that Lowetide links to above. For those of you who don’t know there is a growing consensus that there are problems with the use of p values in biology, medicine and other fields. For decades the gold standard for confidence in your results was a p value of 0.05. The problem is that this level of confidence is really saying that 5 times out of 100 the observed values will happen by chance. In medicine this has lead to a remarkable number of false positives. This means for example that a large number of new drugs are entering the treatment stream and failing even though the trials done on them before commercialization and licensing met the p = 0.05 level.

    Elsewhere there have been attacks on the idea of p values being used at all. I personally have found these arguments compelling enough I have stopped using p values and started using a new approach. GMoney has gone for the Bayesian approach – those who want to know more about the difficulties with p values and the switch to Bayesian methods can check out this short piece from the Encyclopedia of Math https://www.encyclopediaofmath.org/index.php/The_significance_test_controversy_and_the_bayesian_alternative.

    My point now is to simply say if you want to see one of the new approaches to determining significance done right go check out GMoney’s fabulous article and particularly the post script for stats nerds. It is an amazing visualization of what he is talking about in the article. This is what hockey analytics should look like and almost never does. https://oilersnerdalert.wordpress.com/2017/08/19/comparing-nuges-oranges-and-draisaitls-oranges/comment-page-1/#comment-1202

  28. Dicky94 says:

    stush18,

    I think Mantha will get a big push down there. Top 4.

  29. Kinger_Oil.redux says:

    digger50:

    Last year, it was not enough. This year we are close, oh so close, but everything has to break right.

    – Great post LT! Everything has to break right, but isn’t that the same for all contending teams, save Pitts who won without their by far and away best D?

    – I figure for the next many years, this will be us: “if everything breaks right” we win the Cup

    – That’s all you can ask for in this parity league IMO: You can’t build clearly better teams for any length of time with a $70MM payroll that at least 25 teams are spending to.

    – The only thing I disagree with Digger is last year: we were good enough to win the Cup….

  30. Gret99zky says:

    Stan Weir once had a staring contest with the sun. The sun blinked.

  31. OriginalPouzar says:

    Dicky94:
    stush18,

    I think Mantha will get a big push down there. Top 4.

    I think Mantha may start the year in Wichita (ECHL).

  32. OmJo says:

    Good article by GMoney there. Can somebody tell Chiarelli to make this required reading for the other 30 NHL GMs when it comes time to trade Nuge next summer?

  33. Woogie63 says:

    OriginalPouzar:
    Leon’s contract is 8 years long.Leon is currently 21 years old.

    Yes, there is pressure on him to provide value for that contract and that likely means centering his own line and driving that line to be productive.

    With that said, do we expect that this year? That would sure be nice but I think we need to expect some reasonable progression. I expect that type of production from Leon for the majority of the contract but it may take a couple of years of continued to development until he is providing elite level offence on his own.

    I fear the negativity if he doesn’t hit the mark this year even though I believe some continued development may be required.

    If Nuge can consistently deliver +55 points we have value contract at 2C that make it difficult to keep 29 unless he delivers a premium to his contract. Either way the Oilers win.

  34. OmJo says:

    Seismic Source:
    I’d like to see Kassian get some minutes on Connors RW.At least enough so we can check a box.

    +1

    Seems like Kassian is locked in at 4RW but they really should give him a look. Could he not be the Maroon replacement on McDavid’s wing we’ll probably be looking for after this season is over?

  35. OriginalPouzar says:

    Kass should stick to what has made him successful as an NHL player during his resurgence – aggressive forceheck, speed, physicality and creating turnovers.

    I fear Kass would lose these attributes and try and rely on more skill if moved to the 1st line – the history of the NHL shows that excellent bottom 6 players that get a push to the top 6 often change their game to try and fit in and it does not suit them.

    I’m sure Kass will get some time with McDavid this year – he can play up the lineup – I think there are other options that make more sense right now as Kass is very good at what he does in the bottom 6/PK role.

  36. Lowetide says:

    KHL season underway, Anton Belov played 20 minutes, Kovalchuk scored Datsyuk an assist.

  37. OmJo says:

    Lowetide:
    KHL season underway, Anton Belov played 20 minutes, Kovalchuk scored Datsyuk an assist.

    Forgot about all the Kovalchuk hype back in early July. Somewhat surprised no teams expressed any interest in him.

    So are Russia favourites to win Gold at the olympics yet?

  38. Thinker says:

    OmJo: Forgot about all the Kovalchuk hype back in early July. Somewhat surprised no teams expressed any interest in him.

    So are Russia favourites to win Gold at the olympics yet?

    Guessing nobody wanted to give assets and money for a bet like that.

  39. OriginalPouzar says:

    Russia is 100% the far and away favorite at the Olympics – its not even close.

  40. flea says:

    The KHL starts up early!

    Why doesn’t the NHL start their season sooner? Setpember start and May finish seems like it would be so much better than October – June. Are the owners trying to avoid NFL crossover?

  41. Kinger_Oil.redux says:

    flea:

    Why doesn’t the NHL start their season sooner? Setpember start and May finish seems like it would be so much better than October – June. Are the owners trying to avoid NFL crossover?

    – That makes too much sense! It matches with all kids in North America and their hockey schedule.

    – And Hockey in mid-June is just dumb

    – I like how Golf rejigged their schedule: more compressed, time in off-season for exhibitions, and to avoid some NFL cross-over

  42. stush18 says:

    OriginalPouzar,

    Did we not have this conversation before? Haha

  43. digger50 says:

    Kinger_Oil.redux: – Great post LT!Everything has to break right, but isn’t that the same for all contending teams, save Pitts who won without their by far and away best D?

    – I figure for the next many years, this will be us: “if everything breaks right” we win the Cup

    – That’s all you can ask for in this parity league IMO: You can’t build clearly better teams for any length of time with a $70MM payroll that at least 25 teams are spending to.

    – The only thing I disagree with Digger is last year: we were good enough to win the Cup….

    Were we good enough?

    Maybe, we certainly got burned a few times and it stung.

    But the holes that were exposed, were mostly identified at the start of the year.

    My opinion but third line center was a hole. Todd announced his intention to play Drai on wing, but they charged ahead hoping Drake could plug the hole.

    The other weakness (I thought) was that our d men were completely beat up the last8 games. The game plan against us was to run the defence until they cough up the puck – and it worked. Our d started to cough it up and turn it over. The answer here may be better speed and puck moving – but I think it’s more likely to be more size to take the hit and protect the puck. Thus I’m more for Franson than Auvitu.

    Today I am heading out Salmon fishing in a little boat with two kids. I’m not going if I have a hole in the boat, those would be fixed, and I certainly have a back up plan if things go wrong.

  44. stush18 says:

    stush18,

    For those agreeing with pouzarOG, I do have reasoning behind the this.

    Russell had decent results with sekera last yr. some might say underrated results. I think so. George is certainly painting him in a good light. But what most of us can agree on is Russell defends pretty well. He had good minutes against the elites with decent results. So I would pair him with Klefbom, who is easily our best puckmover. The coaches also clearly trusted Russell with those minutes, and I cannot see anything changing in that regards. Klefbom is also a superior player to sekera, so I see no reason why they shouldn’t be able to match last years results.

    Nurse and Larsson had decent results. I think nurses style is covered by Larsson and his steady play, allowing nurse to ramble a bit more. And I really think Larsson has some hidden offense, and nurse deferring to him might show a bit more of that.

    The last pairing is a wild card and interchangeable. I’d like two years of dominance from benning before I elevate him. He is older for a prospect, and he’s not guaranteed to continue to get better. Paigan is going to surprise imo, but I think the bottom pairing will be a little interchangeable

  45. OriginalPouzar says:

    Kinger_Oil.redux: – That makes too much sense!It matches with all kids in North America and their hockey schedule.

    – And Hockey in mid-June is just dumb

    – I like how Golf rejigged their schedule: more compressed, time in off-season for exhibitions, and to avoid some NFL cross-over

    I’ll take hockey all-year round – doesn’t bother me that the playoffs go in to June.

  46. OriginalPouzar says:

    stush18:
    OriginalPouzar,

    Did we not have this conversation before? Haha

    Yup but what can we do? Its the dog-days of August – only so much to talk about – we’re on repeats now I guess.

  47. stush18 says:

    OriginalPouzar,

    THought so haha

    I still think we would see *good* results from that pairing.

  48. jm363561 says:

    “So the Oilers outscored their opponents when Russell was on the ice w/o RNH and CMD.”

    First let me say I like Russell. I believe intangibles matter and Russell is a warrior. I forget the opponents but February’ish the guy heroically blocked a shot, limped off, and the whole Oiler bench were on their feet applauding him. This does not appear on any database but, IMHO, impacts team performance.

    Georges is an amazing poster and I always learn a lot from his input. He finally unearths a stat that (for once) shows KR in a positive light and sort of confirms my view that, in hockey, there is always going to be a stat that supports an opinion. I am not knocking stats – they have their place – but they are not the be all and end all.

  49. oilfan17 says:

    Woogie63:

    If Nuge get +55 points as 2C and plays that 200 foot game, for $6M the Oilers might keep him and the 3-4 NHL players that Draisaitl’s salary will provide.

    Before we start trading Drai and keeping Nuge, maybe somebody could write an article that factors in the quality of linemates they each had away from McDavid.

    Nuge played with Lucic/Maroon & Eberle; Drai with an assortment of bottom sixers and rookies.

    Those aren’t the same oranges.

  50. OriginalPouzar says:

    stush18:
    OriginalPouzar,

    THought so haha

    I still think we would see *good* results from that pairing.

    I guess it depends on what you consider “good results”.

    When my 1st d-pairing is on the ice, I want them to score more goals than they give up. In particular if they are on the ice with McDavid, I want them to score materially more goals than they give up.

    When Russell was on the ice last year, the Oilers didn’t score goals – they didn’t give up many but they also didn’t score – this included time spent with McDavid on the ice.

    I understand the coaching staff likes and trusts Russell – coaches like d-men that can defend. He will get his top 4 ES minutes – I’ve accepted that – I just really really want him to be on his natural let side when he gets those minutes – he should be a more effective puck mover on the left side leading to more goals scored by the Oilers.

  51. stush18 says:

    OriginalPouzar,

    Right. I agree.

    I have no issue with Russell on my team. I really believe he affects the oilers positively. The issue is how much he is paid, imo.

    My def of good is that the pairing stays afloat until sekera gets back. Running around 50% on shot goal and danger metrics.

    Just win baby

  52. stush18 says:

    jm363561,

    There’s actually quite a lot of information out there that points to Russell being a good 4-5 dman.

    The issue is and will always be how much he is paid.

  53. Jaxon says:

    OriginalPouzar: Agreed on Brad Malone but I seem him a tier below the other guys I mentioned coming in to camp – if the PK struggles early in the year, he may get the call.

    Joey G. is an intriguing prospect but a definite long-shot at this point.

    Joey L. is a wild-card – that offence (goals) sure did take off when moved to forward – I’m very intrigued to see how he does at camp.

    I like all 3 of those player – all three may see NHL time this year (almost for sure Malone), however, coming in to camp, I put them behind JJ, Rattie and Pak.

    That’s what camps for though – they could win roster spots.

    Fair, well argued points that I don’t disagree with. I do think there’s a chance Paigin, Bear and LaLeggia surprise in camp and earn a spot, and I think Malone set up nicely to be on the opening night roster (press box).

  54. OriginalPouzar says:

    I think there is almost zero chance that Bear earns a spot at camp – I think Bear should be considered a long-term prospect at least a few years away.

    Paigin is the guy from that list that, while a long-shot, wouldn’t overly-surprise me if he made the team.

    As a LW, Joey L. seems in tough – if he was a RW, I’d give him more than an opportunity.

  55. Georges says:

    Using NST, here are the 5v5 goals +/- for CMD with each of our defensemen:

    +15 Sekera
    +12 Russell
    +11 Larsson
    +10 Klefbom
    +7 Nurse
    +4 Gryba
    +1 Benning
    0 Davidson
    0 Fayne
    0 Simpson
    0 Oesterle

    5v5 goals +/- is highly correlated to standings points.

    The Russell is a drag on CMD, RNH, Nana Mouskouri narrative sure has legs.

    In the complete picture, it has no teeth.

    He could be bad for the Oilers. He just hasn’t been.

  56. Georges says:

    VOR:

    My point now is to simply say if you want to see one of the new approaches to determining significance done right go check out GMoney’s fabulous article and particularly the post script for stats nerds.

    You thought it was done right. Interesting.

    GMoney may want to do some QA on the PuckIQ data. Lots of statements and conclusions on here these days using those numbers.

    On the Russell WOWY page for CMD, we get:

    GF-GA

    w/ CMD 22-10
    w/o CMD 19-25

    All 41-35

    http://puckiq.com/wowy/8471729/8478402

    On the Russell page, we get:

    All 41-32

    http://puckiq.com/players/8471729

  57. jm363561 says:

    stush18:
    jm363561,

    There’s actually quite a lot of information out there that points to Russell being a good 4-5 dman.

    The issue is and will always be how much he is paid.

    Okay, I agree, but setting aside the whole contract debate, you really do not get the impression that many posters here view KR positively. One of Chia’s great achievements is to have created a tight locker room and a very resilient team on the ice. KR is a big part of that and I believe this has great value. The team went (I think – too lazy to check)11-3-0 at the end of the last regular season. In many of those games they did not, to my eye, appear to be the better team but somehow scraped a result. Intangibles matter. JMHO.

  58. jtblack says:

    Gret99zky,

    This is Great. Love the Stan Weir quotes!

  59. Nuclear leak says:

    Lots of Nuge to Montreal verbal, don’t be surprised if Nuge is packaged with an up and coming defender and a high pick for a guy coming up on the need of a new contract.

    Col, NYI, Mon, and the Oilers are all circling eachother.

    Colorado is stuck selling low on Duchene, management is beginning to accept their fate.

    Snow isn’t going to lose John for zilch, and he’s nearly been assured of losing him next spring.

    Mon is dying for a high quality pivot, they don’t have much people want is their issue.

    Vanek to Edm on a 1yr deal is actually a thing that actually has a chance, it’s on him to accept last heard.

    Columbus is the dark house in it all for any of the available middle men, if they add their #3 overall big pivot with Murray, which is something they haven’t budged on so far, they’ll get their man.

  60. Melvis says:

    Stan Weir invented the curved blade after bending the trees at Alticane.

    As for the eclipse? What eclipse? I had more trouble with the rods and cones after staring at a dashboard light for a couple of minutes. As for Bonnie Tyler, I need a kick in the nuts just to dislodge the earworm.

  61. OriginalPouzar says:

    jm363561: Okay, I agree, but setting aside the whole contract debate, you really do not get the impression that many posters here view KR positively. One of Chia’s great achievements is to have created a tight locker room and a very resilient team on the ice. KR is a big part of that and I believe this has great value. The team went (I think – too lazy to check)11-3-0 at the end of the last regular season. In many of those games they did not, to my eye, appear to be the better team but somehow scraped a result. Intangibles matter. JMHO.

    I don’t have an issue with Kris Russell the player – I wanted an upgrade at 2RD (Sekera is still the 2LD for the next few years) but one didn’t seem to be available.

    Given the Sekera injury and Russell being a free agent, I was fine with bringing Russell back. I was even fine with overpaying him for 1-2 years. The killer is not cap hit for the next year (or two), its the term and, even moreso, the ridiculous trade protection for a tertiary aging piece.

    Even a NTC as opposed to a NMC would have been much better allowing the team to place him in the minors but we can’t even do that.

    Having Kris Russell was necessary for this year but not for 4 years with a trade protection contract – not with 3 guys firmly ahead of him on the depth chart and two guys already nipping at his butt – potentially passing him as quickly as this winter.

  62. OriginalPouzar says:

    Nuge to MTL is a possibility but I can’t imagine that happening until next sprint.

    Vanek on a one-year deal is intriguing but, if I remember correctly, he had the most sheltered minutes in the NHL last year (or pretty close) – I can’t really see our coach trusting that player.

  63. Lowetide says:

    Nuclear leak:
    Lots of Nuge to Montreal verbal, don’t be surprised if Nuge is packaged with an up and coming defender and a high pick for a guy coming up on the need of a new contract.

    Col, NYI, Mon, and the Oilers are all circling eachother.

    Colorado is stuck selling low on Duchene, management is beginning to accept their fate.

    Snow isn’t going to lose John for zilch, and he’s nearly been assured of losing him next spring.

    Mon is dying for a high quality pivot, they don’t have much people want is their issue.

    Vanek to Edm on a 1yr deal is actually a thing that actually has a chance, it’s on him to accept last heard.

    Columbus is the dark house in it all for any of the available middle men, if they add their #3 overall big pivot with Murray, which is something they haven’t budged on so far, they’ll get their man.

    At the NHL level, Gallagher is probably the obvious choice. I like him but not his injury history.

  64. OriginalPouzar says:

    Gallagher was an intriguing option to me as recently as a week ago, however, given any Nuge trade will be primarily motivated by opening up cap space, I”m not so sure the team will even be willing to take back a $3.5M range salary.

    I don’t know if that will be enough cap savings – obviously the amount of space we need to open up can be unknown for a while as its predicated on the cap itself as well as how our RFAs will perform this year (and expected contracts vis-a-vis such performance).

  65. stush18 says:

    jm363561,

    I 100% agree intangibles matter and are relevant.

    Too often we disregard human element when talking hockey imo

  66. Woodguy v2.0 says:

    Georges: You thought it was done right. Interesting.

    GMoney may want to do some QA on the PuckIQ data. Lots of statements and conclusions on here these days using those numbers.

    On the Russell WOWY page for CMD, we get:

    GF-GA

    w/ CMD 22-10
    w/o CMD 19-25

    All 41-35

    http://puckiq.com/wowy/8471729/8478402

    On the Russell page, we get:

    All 41-32

    http://puckiq.com/players/8471729

    Vor is talking about the Bayesian confidence interval in terms of being “right” and he’s correct in that its what hockey fancystats has been lacking.

    Also,

    You seem to take NST as the gospel.

    NST has been an outlier in terms of results vis a vis corsica and hockeyanalysis since it launched and I’d caution you against that default setting.

    Example:

    Nuge 5v5 points on NST via player counts: http://naturalstattrick.com/playerreport.php?season=20162017&stype=2&sit=5v5&rate=n&v=p&playerid=8476454

    Nuge 10g 17a

    Nuge 5v5 points on NST via the preceding page: http://naturalstattrick.com/playerreport.php?season=20162017&playerid=8476454&sit=5v5&stype=2&rate=&v=s

    Nuge 10g 16a

    Same site, same data, different results.

    If you want a conference call on this, make sure that the NST people are there.

  67. Woodguy v2.0 says:

    Georges:
    Using NST, here are the 5v5 goals +/- for CMD with each of our defensemen:

    +15 Sekera
    +12 Russell
    +11 Larsson
    +10 Klefbom
    +7 Nurse
    +4 Gryba
    +1 Benning
    0 Davidson
    0 Fayne
    0 Simpson
    0 Oesterle

    5v5 goals +/- is highly correlated to standings points.

    The Russell is a drag on CMD, RNH, Nana Mouskouri narrative sure has legs.

    In the complete picture, it has no teeth.

    He could be bad for the Oilers. He just hasn’t been.

    What is the ONSV% of each player?

    What is the probability that the ONSV% is repeatable?

  68. Woodguy v2.0 says:

    Georges,

    That suggests RNH also dragged down Russell’s results. But, hey, Russell got to play with CMD.

    Waving away playing with the best playing in the NHL with “But, hey, Russell got to play with CMD” really hurts your credibility here.

    This wording suggests that playing with the best play in the NHL shouldn’t change a players results.

    Not good.

    Also,

    Russell GF-GA (GF%)
    Overall
    41-34 (54.6)
    With CMD
    22-10 (68.8)
    With RNH
    5-13 (27.8)
    W/O RNH and CMD
    14-11 (56.0)
    So the Oilers outscored their opponents when Russell was on the ice w/o RNH and CMD.
    LT, we need to talk about Kris. (Eagerly awaiting the RE…)

    If you’re going to post goal rates, you need to post ONSH% and ONSV% or else the data has no context.

  69. Georges says:

    Woodguy v2.0: Vor is talking about the Bayesian confidence interval in terms of being “right” and he’s correct in that its what hockey fancystats has been lacking.

    Also,

    You seem to take NST as the gospel.

    NST has been an outlier in terms of results vis a vis corsica and hockeyanalysis since it launched and I’d caution you against that default setting.

    Example:

    Nuge 5v5 points on NST via player counts: http://naturalstattrick.com/playerreport.php?season=20162017&stype=2&sit=5v5&rate=n&v=p&playerid=8476454

    Nuge 10g 17a

    Nuge 5v5 points on NST via the preceding page: http://naturalstattrick.com/playerreport.php?season=20162017&playerid=8476454&sit=5v5&stype=2&rate=&v=s

    Nuge 10g 16a

    Same site, same data, different results.

    If you want a conference call on this, make sure that the NST people are there.

    So everyone has problem data then?

    Conference call? NST people?

  70. Georges says:

    Woodguy v2.0: What is the ONSV% of each player?

    What is the probability that the ONSV% is repeatable?

    I’ll bite. What is the probability?

  71. Georges says:

    Woodguy v2.0:
    Georges,

    That suggests RNH also dragged down Russell’s results. But, hey, Russell got to play with CMD.

    Waving away playing with the best playing in the NHL with “But, hey, Russell got to play with CMD” really hurts your credibility here.

    This wording suggests that playing with the best play in the NHL shouldn’t change a players results.

    Not good.

    You’ve become a literary critic in addition to a fancystats enthusiast. You’re taking exception with my wording! If you read that bit again, you’ll see there are 3 categories of Russell ice time.

    And… really hurts my credibility…? You should really read that again.

    Also,

    Russell GF-GA (GF%)
    Overall
    41-34 (54.6)
    With CMD
    22-10 (68.8)
    With RNH
    5-13 (27.8)
    W/O RNH and CMD
    14-11 (56.0)
    So the Oilers outscored their opponents when Russell was on the ice w/o RNH and CMD.
    LT, we need to talk about Kris. (Eagerly awaiting the RE…)

    If you’re going to post goal rates, you need to post ONSH% and ONSV% or else the data has no context.

    Did I miss ONSH% and ONSV% in GMoney’s article? Does his data have no context too?

  72. Woodguy v2.0 says:

    Georges: I’ll bite. What is the probability?

    almost zero.

    Dman influence on sv% is negligible

  73. Woodguy v2.0 says:

    Georges: You’ve become a literary critic in addition to a fancystats enthusiast. You’re taking exception with my wording! If you read that bit again, you’ll see there are 3 categories of Russell ice time.

    And… really hurts my credibility…? You should really read that again.

    Did I miss ONSH% and ONSV% in GMoney’s article? Does his data have no context too?

    G doesn’t have SV% or SH% yet.

    You know enough to not come to conclusions without it.

    Also,

    Removing massive outliers from a data set to get a better understanding is SOP.

    You know this too.

  74. Georges says:

    Woodguy v2.0: almost zero.

    Dman influence on sv% is negligible

    So the expectation for his future sv% is maybe a little lower than Talbot’s average. Let’s say that means a big drop of 1.5%. Which means he’s on the ice for 7 or 8 more goals against. This wipes out his +/- edge.

    But his on-ice sh% was quite low for someone playing with CMD as I believe you pointed out before. I don’t think dmen influence sh% either, do they? So his sh% should improve from what happened this year. Which would mean more goals for, so, maybe he can still end up positive on +/-.

    Russell had a high PDO. I checked Manny’s data for last year. Here’s what I get for PDO for our other d-men:

    1.056, MARK.FAYNE
    1.020, MATTHEW.BENNING
    1.016, ANDREJ.SEKERA
    1.015, ADAM.LARSSON
    1.015, KRIS.RUSSELL
    1.013, BRANDON.DAVIDSON
    1.003, OSCAR.KLEFBOM
    1.002, DARNELL.NURSE
    0.994, DILLON.SIMPSON
    0.982, ERIC.GRYBA
    0.889, JORDAN.OESTERLE

    A big part of this is playing with CMD. Another part is a good year from Talbot. We can expect CMD to be CMD. And we can hope for another good year from Talbot. Russell’s results, like all of our d-men’s results, are tied up with how well these two perform next season.

    And Russell isn’t the worst PDO offender on our team. You’ve had a lot of praise for Benning, for example.

  75. VOR says:

    Woodguy,

    Thank you. I meant three things, one of which you nailed. I think hockey stats needs to move with the latest thinking in statistics and the Bayesian approach is a definite improvement (IMO) on p values. However, I also loved the graphic depiction of the distribution curves (well I thought it was great he even mentioned distribution curves since most hockey stats people seem oblivious to why distribution curves might be important). It allowed us to easily visualize what he was talking about. But most importantly, GMoney actually included some of the details of how he performed his analysis in his postscript for stats nerds.

    I am not sure about his conclusions but he certainly gave us enough insight into the methodology to allow us to have an informed opinion. This is how it should always be done.

  76. Georges says:

    Woodguy v2.0: G doesn’t have SV% or SH% yet.

    You know enough to not come to conclusions without it.

    Also,

    Removing massive outliers from a data set to get a better understanding is SOP.

    You know this too.

    Interesting. I admire your confidence in your understanding of statistical SOP. I thought this was a hobby for you. I get the sense that G spends a lot of time working with statistical libraries and techniques. Didn’t realize you did that kind of work too… I was a little confused by your reference to Bayesian confidence intervals earlier… did you mean this?

    https://stats.stackexchange.com/questions/2272/whats-the-difference-between-a-confidence-interval-and-a-credible-interval

    My conclusion is that Russell’s results look about the same as our other, less controversial, defensemen’s results.

    So what’s the massive outlier that I missed? I obviously don’t know.

  77. VOR says:

    Georges, Woodguy,

    Georges,

    I posted this article this morning when I said I liked GMoney’s switch to a Bayesian approach:

    https://www.encyclopediaofmath.org/index.php/The_significance_test_controversy_and_the_bayesian_alternative

    Woodguy,

    I would agree with you that the removal of outliers is common practice. That doesn’t mean it is a good idea. The danger in removing outliers in a data set is it can prevent you seeing the true pattern.

    Years ago (1988-1989) I did a series of experiments each of which was meant to look at hormone binding behavior through what is know as a Scatchard Plot. (I was looking for a new breast cancer drug) In theory a Scatchard Plot not only tells you if the ligand (hormone) you have is binding to the protein but if so with what affinity. It is a linear regression based approach.

    To get a good fit I had to throw out two or three data points in a series of 15 in each experiment. Eventually, I realized that you could create two perfect fit lines if you left the data in. Some hormone/hormone receptor interactions work this way. Usually the first concentration causes the receptor to switch on and the second, higher concentration causes the receptor to switch off.

    This sort of meant my candidate drug was probably not going to work. In mice it worked by binding to an estrogen receptor with even greater affinity that tamoxifen which is a very common drug in breast cancer treatment. But the two step model meant as the treatment dose rose it would reach a point where I got the exact opposite of the effect I wanted. That is the cancer would grow even faster than it had before treatment. (As it happens it made humans very sick – even by chemotherapy standards and never made it to clinical trials).

    The years passed and occasionally I would look at the data with a fresh eye. In 1999 I realized that the data revealed a relationship but that relationship wasn’t linear. So a Scatchard Plot was the wrong approach to have used in analyzing my data.

    Scatchard Plots aren’t used much anymore because all hormone receptor/hormone relationships as well as many other ligand/protein relationships turn out to be non-linear in nature. In fact, there is a growing consensus in bio-statistics that biological data is often impossible to analyze using linear regressions because so few relationships are linear. Most professional statisticians have become highly skeptical about both p values and linear regressions (both of which can be very easy to misunderstand and misinterpret).

    Statistical best practice changes over time and it is essential to keep up – as GMoney is trying to do. I am truly impressed and I’d appreciate it if you let him know that. I think over time SOP in statistics is moving away from the removal of outliers to focusing on developing relationships that include them. This comes naturally with the move to non-linear approaches.

  78. Georges says:

    VOR,

    I respond to your posts because you’re a fellow traveler in stats and I feel there’s a conversation there somewhere. My tone is intended to be lighthearted. If I ever come across as a jerk, please let me know (as you’ve done once already). I will reflect and try to do better. You are a most appreciated voice on this site for me and I would like to feel that I’ve treated you with respect.

Leave a Reply

Want to join the discussion?
Feel free to contribute!
© Copyright - Lowetide.ca