TRAINING CAMP HOPEFUL NO. 11: NICK ELLIS

Back when I worked in sales, I learned a valuable lesson about prospecting: It’s just math. If I needed five new clients, then I needed to call on 20 new prospects and that meant I needed to make about 100 phone calls. If you are in sales and have a better ratio, remember these were cold calls and I was selling “air” to people and business! For prospects, especially goalies, the song remains the same. If you throw five goalies against the wall, sooner or later one of them will stick. Surely.

NICK ELLIS RE 17-18: 2GP, 3.00 .902

  1. This recall of Nick Ellis you are projecting is too early. When Ellis receives his next recall, it will be the second one. Edmonton elevated Ellis for the first time April 19, 2017. At the time of his recall, he ranked No. 4 among AHL rookie goalies in save percentage.
  2. Still, Brossoit is first man up. I’m guessing Ellis has another strong AHL season. He is an RFA next summer. I bet Peter Chiarelli and Todd McLellan will be curious about how he performs in the NHL.
  3. How early in his pro career did he stand out? Lowetide blog, October 21He is the early star among AHL rookies (along with Benning), posting a .925 save percentage in the first two games of the season. I hesitate to say he will end up pushing Brossoit for the NHL backup job, because it is much too early. Suffice to say he has looked good so farSource
  4. So he replaces Brossoit? Edmonton is trying to find out what he is and that allows management to proceed accordingly. Maybe he’s a trade deadline asset, or maybe the club deals Brossoit for a veteran rental with Ellis in mind for next year.
  5. Or maybe both fail. Sure. Look, at one time Oilers fans like me were convinced Steve Passmore was the answer. Turned out it was Tim Thomas. Goalies tell us about themselves but they’re also a moving target.
  6. Are any of these prospects matriculating in a more promising way than Devan Dubnyk? My answer is no, others may tell you a different story. I’ll make no claim to expertise on this subject.
  7. Dubnyk was promising until he wasn’t. Well, the Oilers were a tire fire at the time.
  8. If you have to ask the question? Yes. Exactly.
  9. Why do you like Ellis so much? I don’t think it’s a matter of liking him or not, he’s a candidate for an NHL job rolling out over the next few seasons. I’m a fan of giving him the net in the AHL and seeing if he can build on last season.
  10. Is that the priority? Putting back-to-back solid seasons together? Oh sure. If a goalie has a strong year at 16, builds on it and has a better one at 17, and then plays at same or higher level through the day he turns pro, that’s a goalie who has earned a chance.
  11. Is that Ellis? He was a backup in college until 2015-16 and then had a very good final NCAA season. Followed it up with another strong year in Bakersfield. Building a resume after two fairly inactive college seasons coming out of the USHL.
  12. How many AHL goalies had a better year than Ellis? Including all goals (veterans and rookies) who faced 900 or more shots: 1. Anton Forsberg, .926; Alex Stalock .926; Tom Grosenick .926; 4. Tristan Jarry; 5. Phoenix Copley .924; 6. Steve Michalek .919; 7. Nick Ellis .918.
  13. That is good! Yes. He’s a good goalie. We just need to see it again and he probably needs a start or two in the NHL before the Oilers decide on his second contract. That’s my guess, anyway.
  14. What do goalie people say about him? Ross Brooks, former NHL goalie“He doesn’t get rattled. He’s very calm. Some guys are all over the place in the net, but he positions himself very well. He’s always facing the puck.” Source
  15. Would you be shocked if Ellis passed Brossoit? No. Not at all.

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24 Responses to "TRAINING CAMP HOPEFUL NO. 11: NICK ELLIS"

  1. OriginalPouzar says:

    Ellis has turned out to be another very good under the radar signing by our GM and POHO. Who knows what his NHL career will look like (if there is one at all) but he has helped to the very nice goalie depth we’ve acquired over the last year or so.

    As I’ve posted at length – I have full confidence that LB can handle the true back-up role – 15-18 starts and generally give the team a chance to win and maybe even steal a game or two. He’s showed well in the NHL but hasn’t had the opportunity – he will this year.

    If LB struggles then I am very willing to give Ellis a shot at the job – I hope PC/McLellan aren’t too quick to make a switch but I don’t think they’ll be afraid to – Ellis is a PC signing after all.

    Hopefully Ellis gets a full year as the starter in Bakersfield and then we’ll have a tough decision to make on 2G next year, in Talbot’s UFA year.

    Do we have a potential Talbot replacement? I don’t know but we should have some nice competition for the back-up role (with Wells and Skinner to follow in the next little while).

  2. Lowetide says:

    Talbot, Shane Starrett and Dylan Wells are all signed for 2018-19 and Stuart Skinner may turn pro as well. Brossoit and Ellis, along with Eddie Pasquale, are at least somewhat in competition with each other for a contract with the Oilers.

  3. OriginalPouzar says:

    Yes, that is the goaltending depth that this organization, all of a sudden, has.

    Nobody seems to be an “elite prospect” but the thing with goalies is you never ever really know how a guy is going to turn out. Star prospects end up doing nothing and elite goalies come out of nowhere more than any other position.

    Should we be worried that none of our prospects are Finnish or has that countries crazy run taken a break for now?

  4. Lowetide says:

    OriginalPouzar:
    Yes, that is the goaltending depth that this organization, all of a sudden, has.

    Nobody seems to be an “elite prospect” but the thing with goalies is you never ever really know how a guy is going to turn out.Star prospects end up doing nothing and elite goalies come out of nowhere more than any other position.

    Should we be worried that none of our prospects are Finnish or has that countries crazy run taken a break for now?

    As long as Jesse Puljujarvi is on the roster, the Finn requirement is covered. Oilers have never made it to the finals without a Finn.

  5. OriginalPouzar says:

    LT, are you projecting Ellis’ two game as a call-up on merit even if LB hasn’t struggled or due to injury.

    Sure, with Ellis and LB both being RFAs after this season I guess they’d want to see Ellis at the NHL but I can’t imagine them giving him games over LB if LB is going his job and I can’t imagine LB being moved in-season if the team is trucking towards the playoffs and he’s doing his job.

    I guess what I’m saying is, if LB is going his job, I presume Ellis is only in the NHL due to injury.

  6. Lowetide says:

    OriginalPouzar:
    LT, are you projecting Ellis’ two game as a call-up on merit even if LB hasn’t struggled or due to injury.

    Sure, with Ellis and LB both being RFAs after this season I guess they’d want to see Ellis at the NHL but I can’t imagine them giving him games over LB if LB is going his job and I can’t imagine LB being moved in-season if the team is trucking towards the playoffs and he’s doing his job.

    I guess what I’m saying is, if LB is going his job, I presume Ellis is only in the NHL due to injury.

    I don’t think there’s any harm in calling up a third goalie and giving him a start, teams do it all the time. Ellis is a pretty good prospect, the organization rewarded him in the spring with a recall and gave him the net in Bakersfield first chance. Running with three goalies for a couple of weeks won’t kill Brossoit’s career.

  7. Lowetide says:

    Elliotte Friedman reporting Matt Hendricks is closing in on a new home (his phrase) and it sounds like Winnipeg. Glad to see him get another job.

  8. stush18 says:

    Lowetide:
    Elliotte Friedman reporting Matt Hendricks is closing in on a new home (his phrase) and it sounds like Winnipeg. Glad to see him get another job.

    Awesome.

    Not really sure what winnipegs plan is here though? Sign on a guy that is a consummate professional? Help the younger guys along?

    Either way, glad for him

  9. stush18 says:

    Lowetide,
    O
    I’m guessing Pasquale is let go, and next year a decision is made on LB vs Ellis.

  10. OriginalPouzar says:

    Lowetide: I don’t think there’s any harm in calling up a third goalie and giving him a start, teams do it all the time. Ellis is a pretty good prospect, the organization rewarded him in the spring with a recall and gave him the net in Bakersfield first chance. Running with three goalies for a couple of weeks won’t kill Brossoit’s career.

    Fair enough but, at the end of the day, will a game or two really mean anything as far as a contract for next year – no matter how he performs? At the end of the day, will him being lights out in 2 games earn him a contract (or the other way around)?

  11. OriginalPouzar says:

    Lowetide:
    Elliotte Friedman reporting Matt Hendricks is closing in on a new home (his phrase) and it sounds like Winnipeg. Glad to see him get another job.

    Yes, I read that a few minutes ago. Good on Matty – hard work and willingness to take punishment for his team and teammates. I think he can still play the game in short stretches – he had some decent games coming out of the press box a few times last year.

  12. Lowetide says:

    OriginalPouzar: Fair enough but, at the end of the day, will a game or two really mean anything as far as a contract for next year – no matter how he performs? At the end of the day, will him being lights out in 2 games earn him a contract (or the other way around)?

    It’ll be interesting. Another season like this one for Ellis and I suspect the Oilers will be curious enough to give him a look. Brossoit, in his second pro season, saw one NHL game in 2014-15.
    http://www.hockeydb.com/ihdb/stats/pdisplay.php?pid=118258

  13. LadiesloveSmid says:

    A smart team should sign Teddy Purcell to a 2-way deal.

    Would be a better piece for a farm/call-up than say a Mitch Callahan. Could be EDM’s 2RW to be honest.

  14. frjohnk says:

    OriginalPouzar: Yes, I read that a few minutes ago.Good on Matty – hard work and willingness to take punishment for his team and teammates.I think he can still play the game in short stretches – he had some decent games coming out of the press box a few times last year.

    Didnt like him at 5 on 5. Ice was tilted towards Oiler end when he was on the ice.

    Smart penalty killer though. Would pressure when needed, would sacrifice his nuts to block a shot as well. His agent should have got him an endorsement deal for cans.

    Good on shootout as well

    Along with Pouliot, Hendricks, who were two of our better PK’ers, I wonder how the PK will fare this year.

  15. Lowetide says:

    LadiesloveSmid:
    A smart team should sign Teddy Purcell to a 2-way deal.

    Would be a better piece for a farm/call-up than say a Mitch Callahan. Could be EDM’s 2RW to be honest.

    Teddy Purcell was too slow when he was here, has to be at least a little slower now. Great hands, slow boots.

  16. godot10 says:

    Lowetide:
    Elliotte Friedman reporting Matt Hendricks is closing in on a new home (his phrase) and it sounds like Winnipeg. Glad to see him get another job.

    Winnipeg is surrendering earlier than usual.

  17. Lowetide says:

    godot10: Winnipeg is surrendering earlier than usual.

    I always look on a depth chart to see who is losing out. Jets have several young players who might end up losing NHL time.

  18. godot10 says:

    Lowetide: I always look on a depth chart to see who is losing out. Jets have several young players who might end up losing NHL time.

    I suppose they view Hendricks as someone they can sit in the pressbox while the real fourteenth forward plays in the AHL. He may help in the locker room but he is now a liability on the ice.

  19. OriginalPouzar says:

    frjohnk: Didnt like him at 5 on 5.Ice was tilted towards Oiler end when he was on the ice.

    Smart penalty killer though.Would pressure when needed, would sacrifice his nuts to block a shot as well.His agent should have got him an endorsement deal for cans.

    Good on shootout as well

    Along with Pouliot, Hendricks, who were two of our better PK’ers, I wonder how the PK will fare this year.

    The PK is a concern. Pouliot was quietly one of our more effective penalty killers. Letestu isn’t all that great at shot prevention on the PK.

    I know Jokinen can play the PK – do we know how effective he has been?

    Nuge will be relied on heavily and, unfortunately, we may need to give McDavid some more time on the PK – don’t get me wrong, I actually get excited when I see him on the PK (every time he’s on the ice) but I’d rather his minutes not be used on the PK unless needed.

    The PK is a reason why I think Brad Malone will likely get some NHL time.

  20. LMHF#1 says:

    Hendricks should be done – he’s taken so much abuse and doesn’t produce anymore. Has to be a next step out there for him. Playing too long is how guys get messed up.

  21. Munny says:

    Well that fight went pretty much as planned.

    Maybe three or four rounds longer than it should have, but Mayweather is freakin forty, shorter, and a lot lighter… can’t blame him for being careful.

    Was a nice touch to seemingly not want to count it as number 50 after it was over. Can’t stand him as a person (neither McGregor) but he finished his career with class words.

  22. Professor Q says:

    OriginalPouzar:
    Yes, that is the goaltending depth that this organization, all of a sudden, has.

    Nobody seems to be an “elite prospect” but the thing with goalies is you never ever really know how a guy is going to turn out.Star prospects end up doing nothing and elite goalies come out of nowhere more than any other position.

    Should we be worried that none of our prospects are Finnish or has that countries crazy run taken a break for now?

    Puljujärvi, Niemaleinen, Rasanen, and who knows who else in this upcoming draft?

  23. OriginalPouzar says:

    Professor Q: Puljujärvi, Niemaleinen, Rasanen, and who knows who else in this upcoming draft?

    I was specifically getting at Finish goalies – just kind of a joking comment re: the Finns producing stud goalie after stud goalie for a while there.

  24. jp says:

    stush18:
    Lowetide,
    O
    I’m guessing Pasquale is let go, and next year a decision is made on LB vs Ellis.

    I was thinking the same, but Pasquale is only 26 vs. 24 and 23 for LB and Ellis. Plus he’s put up .919 or better in each of his past 3 AHL seasons. I think the decision between those 3 will be entirely on merit, with Pasquale getting a fair shot.

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