BRIDGE OVER TROUBLED WATER

Bob McKenzie sat down with Peter Chiarelli in Penticton earlier this week, and the ensuing 47-minute (!!) interview qualifies as a ‘state of the union’ address on the good ship Oiler. It’s impossible to tackle all of the subject matter in one lash, so let’s begin the process today and continue over the coming days. Interview is here.

  • Peter Chiarelli on the Nuge: “Nuge, we had him on the World Cup team, he is a big part of our team and I’m going to do everything I can to keep him.”

Music! It’s a tough row to hoe, though. I looked at this awhile back and keeping RNH would require casting Patrick Maroon aside, trading Andrej Sekera (which involves the player agreeing to waive his NMC) and a pile of inexpensive options turning out well. You’re welcome to try, this isn’t easy. I’m a big fan of the Nuge, hope he stays. The process involved in making it happen is close to impossible with a modest cap increase.

PROJECTED 2018-19 OILERS ROSTER

The Canadian dollar is on the rise, there is a new team adding to overall revenue. Outside factors would have to walk in rhythm in order for this to happen, in my opinion.

THE MCDAVID LINE

  • Peter Chiarelli on McDavid with Patrick Maroon and Ryan Strome (brought up by McKenzie) as a line: “You’ve got some good stick skill there, Pat’s got some good stick skill, I’ve looked at a number of lineups, my guess is we’ll probably come in, as you say, with that lineup in exhibition. You’ve got Pat who can grind and can trade pucks, you’ve got Ryan who can shoot and you’ve got Connor who can do what he does. They all think the game very well.”

This is the “Mirror Man” configuration and a predictable preseason option. The question surrounding this line has to do with chemistry and we can’t answer it until they play together. There are multiple reasons why it makes sense, including a lefty-righty center set, meaning each man can handle his strong side faceoffs. Strome’s shooting totals have been going the wrong way, but playing alongside 97 may mean a spike.

STROME 5X5 SHOTS PER 60 (CAREER)

  • 2013-14: 9.62
  • 2014-15: 8.63
  • 2015-16: 6.99
  • 2016-17: 6.09

That 9.62 number from 2013-14 is in the range of David Pastrnak and Nathan MacKinnon from this past season. Can he get back there? If you watch the interview, Chiarelli’s answer to the question isn’t a final final, and of course we realize this thing could go any number of ways. I’ll tell you this: Strome in this spot makes a lot more sense to me than the Nuge.

THE ATHLETIC

I’ve known James Mirtle (online knowing) for a decade, so was interested in the progress of The Athletic from the beginning. I did not anticipate being part of the Edmonton roster of writers, as the template is exclusivity behind a paywall. James reached out to me and we had a discussion about the plan (I am not at liberty to tell you everything but The Athletic is a monster) but will tell you this massive Edmonton introduction is just the beginning. Think big, and then bigger again.

For me, this blog and my presence at Oilers Nation are central to the radio show and they march in lock step. An exclusive paywall presence doesn’t work for me at this time. I’m thrilled for the opportunity to write for The Athletic and will be posting my first article there tomorrow (I have a regular Sunday column). I don’t tell people how to spend their money but the sheer volume and quality of the writers already announced makes this an attractive site. I will be writing about the Oilers, prospects, draft, same things as we discuss here. The articles will be a little longer, but won’t carry exhaustive analytics or get bogged down with verbal diatribes.

For readers and posters at Lowetide and Oilers Nation, nothing changes. I want you to know this community is important to me and hope you continue to drop by and express yourself. It is past one decade now, this little corner of the Al Gore, I’ve made great friends, learned about the game and enjoyed great opportunities because of it. Pull up a chair, we’re just getting started.

GAME ONE, PENTICTON

Very important we don’t draw too much from one game, but I thought the best Oilers were Dylan Wells, Kailer Yamamoto, Chad Butcher and all six defenders. That Calgary group was an impressive bunch, pre-game predictions surely would have favored Calgary based on experience (the Stockton Heat have some dandy kids, they’re all here). There is another game tonight, I’ll post the GDT tonight at 5pm Edmonton time.

 

 

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99 Responses to "BRIDGE OVER TROUBLED WATER"

  1. flyfish1168 says:

    That was an interesting interview with Mr. Mckenzie. Good read as always LT

  2. OriginalPouzar says:

    What a beautiful interview it was. It covered pretty much everything being discussed by the fan base – possible roster spots, pairings, lines, Leon’s deplyment, Nuge, etc.

  3. OriginalPouzar says:

    It was reported by Spec yesterday and mentioned by Pv that Slepy’s injury is not serious and he “may miss part of camp”. Sounds like it’s likely he is healthy prior to the regular season – he may need to play some catch-up though.

  4. thefinn says:

    It’s amazing, LT, how great things emerge from small things pursued with a passion. I’ve subscribed to The Athletic and look forward to your articles there. As always, your daily blog is must reading. Thank you.

  5. unca miltie says:

    I did buy an annual subscription to the athletic the other night. Extremely impressed with the line up of writers. I also made sure to make an equal contribution to this site and see it worth every penny. Hope others vote with their wallets too..
    Two interesting articles a day along with mostly quality comments. Thanks so much LT.
    One thing I did find out on the athletic, the subscription fee is in US funds.

  6. Kinger_Oil.redux says:

    – Great post LT!

    – The thing about the Nuge is that he’s in a position somewhat to control his destiny IMO.

    – PP wizard Nuge, Dave Keon Nuge, World Cup Nuge and good playoff Nuge = keeper

    – Unless he can do all this, and also contribute as a winger (which he’s never been), I’d guess he doesn’t make it, but hope we get peak RNH this year, making him hard to move

    – I agree with Chia that on a cup, McD&Drai = top 2 C’s:

    – This makes it hard for RNH @ 3C @ $6MM IMO

    * you don’t have Sek next year: he’s still NTC non?

  7. Woodguy v2.0 says:

    *****SPAM*****

    New Because Oilers:

    “Hey NHL! Call the goddamn game like you did for 30 years and you’ll get 6 goals per game”

    http://becauseoilers.blogspot.ca/2017/09/if-nhl-refs-called-games-like-they-used.html

    *****END SPAM*****

  8. OriginalPouzar says:

    I look forward to your article on TheAthletic tomorrow Lowetide.

    I signed on after WIllis on your show yesterday and I wasn’t disappointed – some great content on there.

    I will not be disappointed with my $4/month.

  9. OriginalPouzar says:

    Yes, PC mentioned Strome on 1RW to start preseason and, yes, it does make sense to see how he plays there. I also think they should give JP a game there and see how that goes.

    At the end of the day, no matter how they are deployed for period 1 of game 1, we know that McLellan won’t hesitate to go back to Leon at 1RW and I think he might default to that quite often.

    Lets not forget, I think its in the best interest going forward to have Strome play significant 3C minutes this year to get a sense of what the team may look like without Nuge. I say that even though I’ve been pretty hard in my position that McLellan deploys his roster in the now with the sole view of winning that night’s game and not future contract or deployment interests.

  10. OriginalPouzar says:

    Game tonight at 8:30.

    Got a BBQ/Pool Party/B-day party to go to but should get home in time for the 2nd/3rd.

    I’d like to see how Khaira junior looks out there.

    Now sure off the top of my head who didn’t play last night as far as actual Oiler players (as possessed to invites) besides the goalies.

  11. dustrock says:

    Blows my mind people cringe at forking out $5 for a month of hockey writing when they’ll blow that daily at Starbucks or double that for a single brew at Rogers

  12. defmn says:

    Kinger_Oil.redux:

    * you don’t have Sek next year: he’s still NTC non?

    I believe that is Lowetide’s projected lineup IF they want to keep Nuge on the roster. As he points out in the column having Sekera waive his NTC is the only way to make the money work that he sees.

  13. Woodguy v2.0 says:

    Re: Chiarelli interview

    When Peter admitted that he gave Leon more than “his comps” the reasons he gave were:

    -Size
    -Plays ceter
    -Playoff scoring

    Leon got paid for a 1122 PDO heater.

    Good for him.

    I hope to Gord he gets better away from 97.

  14. Lowetide says:

    Woodguy v2.0:

    I hope to Gord he gets better away from 97.

    I wouldn’t sweat it. If he struggles away from 97, he’ll go back with McDavid. The general manager isn’t going to sit by idly while his $8.5 million investment scores 43 points against Mount Everest.

  15. Woodguy v2.0 says:

    Lowetide: I wouldn’t sweat it. If he struggles away from 97, he’ll go back with McDavid. The general manager isn’t going to sit by idly while his $8.5 million investment scores 43 points against Mount Everest.

    This team really needs to be 52% GF when McDavid isn’t on the ice and that should be led by the 2nd highest paid player on the team.

    I’m not worried about Drai’s scoring.

    I’m worried about the team being > 50% GF with McDavid off the ice.

  16. Doug McLachlan says:

    dustrock:
    Blows my mind people cringe at forking out $5 for a month of hockey writing when they’ll blow that daily at Starbucks or double that for a single brew at Rogers

    Congrats LT on joining the Athletic.

    I had decided that I was going to join up when the Oilers got a dedicated writer…and then, BOOM!

    Ok, ok, I’ve gotten my subscription. Looks fantastic and will probably ensure that I will never lack for well written hockey articles ever again.

    As for last night, was really impressed with the kids. Wells out dueled Parsons and saw Mantha good.

    Looking forward to tonight ‘s tilt.

  17. 106 and 106 says:

    How do you rate Lucic’s game?

    “Out of 10, I’d give him a strong 6”

    Chia is just so good at communicating.

    Listing new environment (ex: Sekera first year) as an example.

    “He will do better and is in good shape. His weight is the same but he is leaner.”

  18. Lowetide says:

    Woodguy v2.0: This team really needs to be 52% GF when McDavid isn’t on the ice and that should be led by the 2nd highest paid player on the team.

    I’m not worried about Drai’s scoring.

    I’m worried about the team being > 50% GF with McDavid off the ice.

    We agree, but we don’t run the team. Peter Chiarelli is heavily invested in Leon Draisaitl. If he struggles in the projected role, I don’t think it will take long for the team to address it. I do worry about Leon’s 5×5 offense away from McDavid. It isn’t grand.

  19. OriginalPouzar says:

    Considering Leon is 21, has improved materially year after year since being draft, is a very driven kid and is locked up for his entire 20s, I would think, yes, he would get a lot better.

    PDO is also driven somewhat by the player(s) themselves – create better scoring chances and make skilled plays —— higher shooting percentage.

  20. Woodguy v2.0 says:

    OriginalPouzar:
    Considering Leon is 21, has improved materially year after year since being draft, is a very driven kid and is locked up for his entire 20s, I would think, yes, he would get a lot better.

    PDO is also driven somewhat by the player(s) themselves – create better scoring chances and make skilled plays —— higher shooting percentage.

    I like Leon too and think he’ll get better too.

    A high PDO can be driven by players. I have McDavid/Talbot combo at 1030 PDO as “normal”

    1122 that Leon got in the playoffs isn’t normal.

    Its 500 miles of highway and 50 exits past normal.

  21. BornInAGretzkyJersey says:

    I could listen to Peter and Bob talk Oilers. All. Day. Long.

  22. John Chambers says:

    Woodguy v2.0: This team really needs to be 52% GF when McDavid isn’t on the ice and that should be led by the 2nd highest paid player on the team.

    I’m not worried about Drai’s scoring.

    I’m worried about the team being > 50% GF with McDavid off the ice.

    Chiarelli mentioned yesterday how having McDavid – Draisaitl as their 1 & 2 centres was the template for success.

    At some point they will both play centre nearly exclusively, and with the excellent set of wingers the club will employ over the coming years, there seems to be enough ingredients there for a dominant 1st and 2nd line.

    Last year it was only budding, but Chia is betting on Leon being >50% CF against the toughs, and I’d put my money there as well.

  23. Woodguy v2.0 says:

    John Chambers: Chiarelli mentioned yesterday how having McDavid – Draisaitl as their 1 & 2 centres was the template for success.

    At some point they will both play centre nearly exclusively, and with the excellent set of wingers the club will employ over the coming years, there seems to be enough ingredients there for a dominant 1st and 2nd line.

    Last year it was only budding, but Chia is betting on Leon being >50% CF against the toughs, and I’d put my money there as well.

    He’s showing signs of getting there and no one is pulling for him more than me.

    My concern is that players who can drive their own line show that early in their career and he hasn’t yet.

  24. Lewis Grant says:

    An exclusive paywall presence doesn’t work for me at this time.

    At this time.

    Talk about burying the lede! Well played, LT.

    We are all grateful for your willingness to keep this site (and community) going. The general decline of blogs in recent years has been a loss for independent communication, and this site has been a notable exception to that trend. (I was going to say “a loss for democratic communication”, but the quality of comments here is truly aristocratic. The level of the company here compels me to do my research before I post here, even though I have a Ph.D (like many others here).)

    This is your living, and I couldn’t begrudge you leaving it at another time, but boy, would it ever be a shame and a loss.

    My Oilers fandom wouldn’t have survived the decade of darkness without this site. Thank you, LT.

  25. jtblack says:

    Woodguy v2.0,

    Its a Big Bet PC made … If Leon never drives his own line the contract isnt worth it. Time will tell …. and it wont take long fornus to know …

    The team as a whole is still poor on the faceoff dot ….

    Going to be interesting to see how the season starts ….. The Oilers won’t surprise anyone this yr …

  26. BlueNoteNorth says:

    What a great interview.

    What caught my attention were two comments:

    1. the value of Nuge to the team and that having expensive talent spread over three lines is ok

    2. specific zone exit stats that Oilers use (which iirc the general analytics community does not have) to rate Russell as top four league-wide in that area

    More Nuge and more analytics. I like this GM a lot.

  27. OriginalPouzar says:

    BlueNoteNorth:
    What a great interview.

    What caught my attention were two comments:

    1. the value of Nuge to the team and that having expensive talent spread over three lines is ok

    2. specific zone exit stats that Oilers use (which iirc the general analytics community does not have) to rate Russell as top four league-wide in that area

    More Nuge and more analytics. I like this GM a lot.

    My strong assumption is that it simply measures puck out of the zone and not controlled zone exits.

    Big difference between getting the puck out via an off the boards or flip up the middle (or even via the slow down set up behind the net allowing the D to set up) vs. a transition out with control.

    It can’t be denied that Russell gets the puck out, however, last year, while playing his off side, it was rarely with control in transition but it was either the “Russell reset” behind the net allowing the D to set up or via a dump where control is immediately back to the opponent and the play coming back our zone.

    Again – he does get the puck out of the zone – that is not denied – its just that, quite often, its coming right back.

  28. Lowetide says:

    BlueNoteNorth:
    What a great interview.

    What caught my attention were two comments:

    1. the value of Nuge to the team and that having expensive talent spread over three lines is ok

    2. specific zone exit stats that Oilers use (which iirc the general analytics community does not have) to rate Russell as top four league-wide in that area

    More Nuge and more analytics. I like this GM a lot.

    My concern, and I am not anti-Russell, is what metrics are they using? Puck IQ is getting us closer, I am impatient and want to get there. Puck IQ is going to deliver us.

  29. bendelson says:

    Hockey is back, the ever-toolsy LT continues to add depth to his game, and I am an Athletic supporter.

    Good times…

  30. BlueNoteNorth says:

    OriginalPouzar,

    I have to listen to the interview again to be sure, but there was a statement aluding to some software that they use which leaves me with the impression (ok, perhaps wishful thinking) that it is more than an in/out counter.

  31. JDî says:

    bendelson: and I am an Athletic supporter.

    I bought mine at Dick’s: https://www.dickssportinggoods.com/products/athletic-cups-supporters.jsp

  32. Woodguy v2.0 says:

    BlueNoteNorth:
    What a great interview.

    What caught my attention were two comments:

    1. the value of Nuge to the team and that having expensive talent spread over three lines is ok

    2. specific zone exit stats that Oilers use (which iirc the general analytics community does not have) to rate Russell as top four league-wide in that area

    More Nuge and more analytics. I like this GM a lot.

    Actually we do have zone exit data now courtesy of Cory Sznajder and his team.

    They try to track every game and have most done over the last couple of years,

    Here’s his Patron site to get access to the data: https://www.patreon.com/CSznajder

    What Peter says about Russell doesn’t jibe with the data.

  33. bendelson says:

    JDî: I bought mine at Dick’s

    For your sake (and those who love you), hopefully not the ‘McDavid Peewee Briefs with soft cup’…

    ____

    Happy weekend all.

  34. OriginalPouzar says:

    BlueNoteNorth:
    OriginalPouzar,

    I have to listen to the interview again to be sure, but there was a statement aluding to some software that they use which leaves me with the impression (ok, perhaps wishful thinking) that it is more than an in/out counter.

    Could be – I don’t recall Chia going in to any details on the metrics themselves just that they were “zone exit metrics”.

  35. OriginalPouzar says:

    Sounds like Yamamoto, Bear and Jones will have tonight off based on the line rushes.

  36. Lowetide says:

    John Shannon‏Verified account @JSportsnet 4m4 minutes ago
    More
    Just talking with Peter Chiarelli, he has invited Chris Kelly, who he had in Ott and Bos, to Oilers’ camp. Kelly has accepted.

  37. OriginalPouzar says:

    I’m thinking Kelly’s most valuable attribute is his PK ability.

    Does he really bring anything else at this stage?

  38. flyfish1168 says:

    Lowetide:
    John Shannon‏Verified account @JSportsnet4m4 minutes ago
    MoreJust talking with Peter Chiarelli, he has invited Chris Kelly, who he had in Ott and Bos, to Oilers’ camp. Kelly has accepted.

    I wish we can turn the clock back on this player. Loved his game a few years ago

  39. BlueNoteNorth says:

    Woodguy v2.0,

    I agree that the Russell stats that we have access to does not back up the “top 4 in the league” comment by Chia.

    So it begs some questions – What is the basis of their assessment? What could the Oilers be evaluating to (rightly or wrongly) arrive at that conclusion? Why can’t we replicate their analysis to reach their conclusion? Are their analytics that much more advanced? Or is it simply a “saw him good index”?

  40. Woodguy v2.0 says:

    BlueNoteNorth:
    Woodguy v2.0,

    I agree that the Russell stats that we have access to does not back up the “top 4 in the league” comment by Chia.

    So it begs some questions – What is the basis of their assessment? What could the Oilers be evaluating to (rightly or wrongly) arrive at that conclusion? Why can’t we replicate their analysis to reach their conclusion? Are their analytics that much more advanced? Or is it simply a “saw him good index”?

    Excellent questions.

  41. PunjabiOil says:

    Got the Athletic recently and can vouch on it’s quality. Price reasonable, quality of articles on this side of Woodguy’s articles, and you learn/obtain information that you don’t see in the mainstream media.

  42. OriginalPouzar says:

    Oilers lines tonight:

    Gambadella-Butcher-Maksimov
    Polei-Szypula-Wolansky
    Pawlenchuk-Koch-Saigeon
    Coleman-Bauer-Owre

    Lagesson-Bear
    Samorukov-Khaira
    Schioler-Strand

    Skinner

    I like the Maksimov push.

    Hopefully Bear has a bounce back game without the puck – lots of work to do there.

  43. SwedishPoster says:

    OriginalPouzar:
    Oilers lines tonight:

    Gambadella-Butcher-Maksimov
    Polei-Szypula-Wolansky
    Pawlenchuk-Koch-Saigeon
    Coleman-Bauer-Owre

    Lagesson-Bear
    Samorukov-Khaira
    Schioler-Strand

    Skinner

    I like the Maksimov push.

    Hopefully Bear has a bounce back game without the puck – lots of work to do there.

    Clearly weaker roster tonight. The D who had lesser games gets a second game. Winnipeg should be the weakest of the teams they’ll face so it makes sense.

  44. jtblack says:

    Woodguy v2.0,

    Sorry All. But PC is overselling his D man. I was all for the origunal Russell signing on the 1 yr. He was NHL calibre D man. He had a good year based on expectations and well analytics is useful it doesn’t completely replace the eye test. Kris Russell is just not a atop 4 Calibre D man. Thats a fact. Don’t care what PC says. We are all knowledgeable hockey guys; and the consensus is prob Russell is a 5/6 with No Offence. A player who gets hemmed into his own zone a lot.

    Russell was WHL defenseman of the year two years in a row. He has an amazing skill set but it didn’t necessarily translate to the NHL level so he has adapted his game to be a serviceable NHL defenseman. He is excellent at blocking shots and has a decent first pass but that’s about it. If all different forms of analytics say that a guys analytics are poor and the GM stands up on a soapbox and says he’s a good player that doesn’t mean the GM is correct.

  45. GMB3 says:

    I’m honestly a Chia fan but to me the Draisaitl deal is brutal. It’s a situation where you should be able to get a team friendly deal, and anyone who thinks that is a team friendly deal is lying to themselves.

  46. oscarmike says:

    If the salary cap goes up $3million and the Oilers keep Yamamoto, benson in the minors, and find a few cheap veterans to sign at $1million, where they don’t have to pay out bonuses, the Oilers should be able to keep Sekera. Russel at $4 million for a #6 RD doesn’t make sense. It would be better to keep Nurse and Benson 3rd pairing, sign a bridge contract at $2.0 million/year or less until Sekera/Russel contracts expire. Ryan Ellis make $2.5million/year.

  47. Melvis says:

    Spent some time this morning searching for the reading glasses – parked on top of my head as usual. It’s the kind of thing that can have you subscribing to the The Atlantic.

  48. Chachi says:

    GMB3:
    I’m honestly a Chia fan but to me the Draisaitl deal is brutal. It’s a situation where you should be able to get a team friendly deal, and anyone who thinks that is a team friendly deal is lying to themselves.

    If Draisaitl finishes in the top 10 or even 20 in points again this year then it is a very team friendly deal. Chiarelli took a big gamble, hopefully it pays off.

  49. godot10 says:

    If one listens carefully, Chiarelli was just regurgitating that old exit data on Russell that he used in the media last year, not new data.

    That data doesn’t seem to be measuring the right things.

    Russell leads in zone exits and shot blocks because he is playing in his own end all the time, and his exits under control are below par, so the puck is always coming back into the D-zone quickly, hence more opportunities to exit.

    Chiarelli is being deceived, like many, by the stylistic battle and character aspects of Russell’s play, but without a horse like Sekera to carry him, he will not be top 4 quality.

    The OIlers season, because of the Sekera injury, really rides on Nurse and Benning both taking a significant step forward.

    Also, Strome is unlikely to ever be a centre for the Oilers because he is weak defensively. Most 3rd line centres cannot survive in the NHL being a liability defensively, particularly on contenders.

    So like Maroon, he probably prices himself out of the OIlers as a right wing, collecting goals playing with McDavid or Draisaitl, and/or is not sufficiently adequate defensively as a 3rd line centre. Odds are high that he is a one year Oilers unless he is willing to take a big discount for any offense he produces.

  50. godot10 says:

    GMB3:
    I’m honestly a Chia fan but to me the Draisaitl deal is brutal. It’s a situation where you should be able to get a team friendly deal, and anyone who thinks that is a team friendly deal is lying to themselves.

    I think Draisaitl should be very close to McDavid on a point per dollar basis when both contracts kick in.

  51. OriginalPouzar says:

    jtblack:
    Woodguy v2.0,

    Sorry All.But PC is overselling his D man.I was all for the origunal Russell signing on the 1 yr. He was NHL calibre D man.He had a good year based on expectations and well analytics is useful it doesn’t completely replace the eye test.Kris Russell is just not a atop 4 Calibre D man.Thats a fact.Don’t care what PC says.We are all knowledgeable hockey guys; and the consensus is prob Russell is a 5/6 with No Offence. A player who gets hemmed into his own zone a lot.

    Russell was WHL defenseman of the year two years in a row.He has an amazing skill set but it didn’t necessarily translate to the NHL level so he has adapted his game to be a serviceable NHL defenseman.He is excellent at blocking shots and has a decent first pass but that’s about it. If all different forms of analytics say that a guys analytics are poor and the GM stands up on a soapbox and says he’s a good player that doesn’t mean the GM is correct.

    I am hopeful that Russell is 2nd pairing d-man playing the left side – he should transition the puck much better.

    I do wonder how many games he’ll get in before his groin acts up.

  52. GMB3 says:

    Chachi: If Draisaitl finishes in the top 10 or even 20 in points again this year then it is a very team friendly deal. Chiarelli took a big gamble, hopefully it pays off.

    Is it a team friendly deal if he finishes top ten in points but doesn’t drive his own line? To me that goal posts should be 65+ point center, not a winger blessed with playing cherry pp minutes and riding shotgun to McDavid at even strength

  53. jtblack says:

    godot10,

    14 Centers had 65 points or more last yr. That includes Leon and Connor. Almosr all of those playrrs make or will make (wiyhin 1 or 2 yrs) Leon $$. For me if Leon can deliver 65 + points year over year; that is fair value based on the market. That is with him predominantly as 2C amd 1st PP.

  54. jp says:

    OriginalPouzar:
    I’m thinking Kelly’s most valuable attribute is his PK ability.

    Does he really bring anything else at this stage?

    Iiro Pakarinen and Brad Malone are worried.

  55. Chachi says:

    GMB3: Is it a team friendly deal if he finishes top ten in points but doesn’t drive his own line? To me that goal posts should be 65+ point center, not a winger blessed with playing cherry pp minutes and riding shotgun to McDavid at even strength

    If he finishes top ten in points I honestly don’t care if he “drives his own line” because the Oilers have probably more often than not out scored the other team.

  56. GMB3 says:

    jtblack:
    godot10,

    14 Centers had 65 points or more last yr. That includes Leon and Connor.Almosr all of those playrrs make or will make (wiyhin 1 or 2 yrs) Leon $$. For me if Leon can deliver 65 + points year over year; that is fair value based on the market.That is with him predominantly as 2C amd 1st PP.

    Not sure how Leon is considered one of those centres since a pretty significant amount of his 5v5 production came as a winger with McDavid.

  57. stush18 says:

    jtblack:
    godot10,

    14 Centers had 65 points or more last yr. That includes Leon and Connor.Almosr all of those playrrs make or will make (wiyhin 1 or 2 yrs) Leon $$. For me if Leon can deliver 65 + points year over year; that is fair value based on the market.That is with him predominantly as 2C amd 1st PP.

    Exactly. Sight glasses need to be adjusted on what we believe is fair value.

    The league doesn’t score like it used to. We may see an uptick in scoring with decreased goalie equipment and the NHL saying it’s instructing refs to force down more on stick infractions.

  58. leadfarmer says:

    I’m just glad that Chia doesn’t like the center depth chart of McDavid Nuge Strome and Latesttube. Drai got his big contract now he’s got to earn it, backwards isn’t it. Go with McDavid Drai Nuge 19 min each game

  59. jtblack says:

    OriginalPouzar,

    Did he tweak his groin?

  60. GMB3 says:

    stush18: Exactly. Sight glasses need to be adjusted on what we believe is fair value.

    The league doesn’t score like it used to. We may see an uptick in scoring with decreased goalie equipment and the NHL saying it’s instructing refs to force down more on stick infractions.

    Compare his contract to Barkov, Schiefele. How is that fair value

  61. Bank Shot says:

    jtblack:
    Woodguy v2.0,

    Sorry All.But PC is overselling his D man.I was all for the origunal Russell signing on the 1 yr. He was NHL calibre D man.He had a good year based on expectations and well analytics is useful it doesn’t completely replace the eye test.Kris Russell is just not a atop 4 Calibre D man.Thats a fact.Don’t care what PC says.We are all knowledgeable hockey guys; and the consensus is prob Russell is a 5/6 with No Offence. A player who gets hemmed into his own zone a lot.

    Russell was WHL defenseman of the year two years in a row.He has an amazing skill set but it didn’t necessarily translate to the NHL level so he has adapted his game to be a serviceable NHL defenseman.He is excellent at blocking shots and has a decent first pass but that’s about it. If all different forms of analytics say that a guys analytics are poor and the GM stands up on a soapbox and says he’s a good player that doesn’t mean the GM is correct.

    I think you should look at the rosters of other teams around the league. I’m not sure there are 15 teams with a clearly better number 4 D-man than Russell.

  62. jtblack says:

    GMB3,

    Well take him out. 13 Centres with 65+ pts That is the bar to be Elite in Nhl. There are “Elite” centers who diidnt hit 65 pts(Johansen, Kuzy, Toews, Monahan, . Gotoux) It is not an easy standard to maintain.

  63. jtblack says:

    GMB3,

    GMB3,

    Thats cherry picking. There are certainly great contracts out there; but they are the exception; not the rule.

  64. Melvis says:

    Just pretend we’re sitting around a table in a decent bar in Eddy…just shooting the breeze. And I’m just cracking wise, or unwise as the case may be.

    Regardless of the number of comments on any given day, OriginalPouzar’s blog zone entries account for 18.84% and 21.8978% of the total. Frankly, I don’t have a clue about exits. I read them all.

    Now let’s take a look at Russell…or attempt to from the usual camera perspective in tv-land. He’s posed behind the net – waiting, waiting, waiting. For what ? We don’t know.

    A line change? Probably. A specific forward? Maybe. Looch on the blue line fuckinng up the chip off the half wall in his skates? Probably. Seemingly. It’s happened all too often.

    I don’t have a problem with the analytics in terms of Russells’s top five zone exits. I have a problem with the quality, the content, and end result from my reading chair.

    And Pouzar, I keed, if you’re thinking of flaying me alive;)

  65. GMB3 says:

    Chachi: If he finishes top ten in points I honestly don’t care if he “drives his own line” because the Oilers have probably more often than not out scored the other team.

    Part of me agrees with you here, but when I read some of woodguys blogs they outline the importance of being able to outscore your opponent without your top line on the ice, and I think there is value in that analysis. Signing Drai for 8.5 instead of 6.5 (fair value in my mind) reduces your ability to sign any veteran help down the lineup.

    I know this is isn’t a very popular opinion with the MSM/staples kool aid drinkers out there.. but if you look at Pittsburgh, they had their success when Crosby and Malkins contracts ate up a significantly smaller % of the cap.

  66. Ryan says:

    godot10: I think Draisaitl should be very close to McDavid on a point per dollar basis when both contracts kick in.

    Hmm. You’re the physicist here, so I’d wager your understanding of mathematics vastly exceeds my own.

    Yet I would question the relevance of points per dollar for comparing player contracts. For starter, it would presume a linear relationship between the two.

    In my mind, I would see more of an s-shaped curve sort of like a dose- response curve if you have points on the x- axis and dolllars on the y- axis.

    Can someone call G-money to plot this for us?

  67. leadfarmer says:

    GMB3: Compare his contract to Barkov, Schiefele. How is that fair value

    McDavid contract changed everything. Schiefele contract is an absolute steal and is not a reasonable comparison for anything. Barkov contract is shorter and doesn’t buy as many of those expensive UFA years at the end but is still great.

  68. GMB3 says:

    jtblack:
    GMB3,

    GMB3,

    Thats cherry picking.There are certainly great contracts out there; but they are the exception; not the rule.

    Agreed. But that’s the issue isn’t it? Building a perennial cup contender when you can’t sign an RFA on a value deal. It could end up being value, but based on his track record it’s more than he deserves. Vancouver can sign Bo Horvat for 5.5 mill. Is drai 3 million dollars better?

  69. leadfarmer says:

    GMB3: Part of me agrees with you here, but when I read some of woodguys blogs they outline the importance of being able to outscore your opponent without your top line on the ice, and I think there is value in that analysis. Signing Drai for 8.5 instead of 6.5 (fair value in my mind) reduces your ability to sign any veteran help down the lineup.

    I know this is isn’t a very popular opinion with the MSM/staples kool aid drinkers out there.. but if you look at Pittsburgh, they had their success when Crosby and Malkins contracts ate up a significantly smaller % of the cap.

    6.5 mil per for Drai is not fair value for him. Eberle signed for 6 mil per with less of those expensive UFA years when cap was 60 mil. With cap inflation to get just the Eberle contract Drai had to be signed for about 7.2 per. With the additional 2 UFA years on Drai contract 7.5 per is about the Eberle contract equivalent would be. 6.5 mil per is just a crazy dream.

  70. treevojo says:

    GMB3: Part of me agrees with you here, but when I read some of woodguys blogs they outline the importance of being able to outscore your opponent without your top line on the ice, and I think there is value in that analysis. Signing Drai for 8.5 instead of 6.5 (fair value in my mind) reduces your ability to sign any veteran help down the lineup.

    I know this is isn’t a very popular opinion with the MSM/staples kool aid drinkers out there.. but if you look at Pittsburgh, they had their success when Crosby and Malkins contracts ate up a significantly smaller % of the cap.

    Chiarelli made a bet.

    I don’t think that makes him or any of the people that agree with his bet msm/staples koolaid drinkers.

  71. GMB3 says:

    leadfarmer: McDavid contract changed everything.Schiefele contract is an absolute steal and is not a reasonable comparison for anything.Barkov contract is shorter and doesn’t buy as many of those expensive UFA years at the end but is still great.

    Tarasenko isn’t a center, but he scored at a similar rate as Drai playing mostly with Jori Lehtera, not Connor McDavid, he still gets paid 1 million less.

    It’s fair to say McDavids contract changes a lot of things, but it doesn’t change the fact it isn’t a value deal and significantly more than his comparables.

    Plenty of posters on this blog pretend this is a great deal, and some of them are the same people who thought Jordan Eberle is overpaid, despite both players getting monster contracts after riding ridiculous shooting %’s. Eberle did it playing on a lesser team with lesser players as well.

  72. GMB3 says:

    leadfarmer,

    Fair, my memory and math on what the % of the cap was is off.

  73. leadfarmer says:

    GMB3: Agreed. But that’s the issue isn’t it? Building a perennial cup contender when you can’t sign an RFA on a value deal. It could end up being value, but based on his track record it’s more than he deserves. Vancouver can sign Bo Horvat for 5.5 mill. Is drai 3 million dollars better?

    Drai just went nearly ppg in the regular season and more than ppg in the playoffs. These two are in a completely different league. Don’t get me wrong. I would love to get Drai with a 6 mil cap hit but that wasn’t going to happen. I feel like the contract was a little rich but I also thought the McDavid contract was a little rich. I wonder if the Drai contract was negotiated first how much lower would the number have been. I’m guessing that it would have come in closer to that 7.5 per

  74. danny says:

    Winning in a cap league means being smarter than most.

    McDavid’s linemates need to be locked in on reasonable contracts BEFORE they spend a season as Mcdavid’s linemate. It’s imperative. Why give guys you’re going to have to negotiate with in upcoming season or two, a career year?

    Strome should NOT play with McDavid until he signs an extension. It’s too late for Drai and Maroon (we are gonna lose him). But we gotta be SMART going forward.

    I’d see how much Detroit wanted for Anthanasiou, get permission to talk to his agent, and convince him 5 years playing on a line with McDavid for 3.75 per is a wise investment.

  75. OriginalPouzar says:

    jtblack:
    OriginalPouzar,

    Did he tweak his groin?

    No but he’s got a history of groin problems and missed two separate stints of games last year because of his groin.

    I doubt it gets better with age.

  76. Georges says:

    This is using David Johnson’s data from 2007-08 to 2015-16 and Manny’s data for 2016-17.

    Let’s take a look at some 5v5 metrics with Sekera on and off the ice for the past 10 seasons. Sekera has played 645 games over that 10-year period according to the data.

    Metric, Sekera On, Sekera Off

    SF%, 50.6, 50.2
    sv%, 91.9, 92.5
    sh% 8.0, 7.8
    GF% 50.3, 51.1

    Now, let’s take a look at Russell. Over the same 10-year span, Russell has played 641 games.

    Metric, Russell On, Russell Off

    SF%, 49.7, 51.2**
    sv%, 92.2, 91.8
    sh%, 8.3, 7.6
    GF%, 51.1, 49.3

    ** The difference between SF% with Russell on and off the ice is statistically significant at the 95% level using a difference of proportions test.

    Everyone notices SF% with Russell because the gap with him on and off the ice is big enough to notice. But his teams have also done better with him on the ice on the other 3 metrics, just not enough to be significant. It all adds up to Russell’s teams have done a better job of winning with Russell on the ice. Whatever Russell has been doing to overcome his SF% deficit and deliver a positive GF% for his teams, he’s been doing it for a long time. (I also think his career SF% deficit has a lot to do with his years under Hartley.)

    When I compare Sekera’s 10-year results with Russell’s, I’m not convinced that Sekera is the better defenseman. Sekera seems to have played on better teams but the results with him on the ice have been worse for those teams. Again, not at a level that’s statistically significant. Both Russell and Sekera basically look like the teams they play for, with Russell doing a bit better and Sekera doing a bit worse.

    The contribution that defensemen make is difficult to measure. They seem to stay in the background, with very few having a significant impact on the results for their teams.

    Here are Doughty’s numbers over 2008-09 to 2016-17 (9 seasons, 688 games):

    Metric, Doughty On, Doughty Off

    SF%, 54.4, 52.6**
    sv%, 92.7, 92.3
    sh%, 7.2, 6.9
    GF%, 54.1, 49.9

    Doughty gets better results for his team across the board. But after 9 seasons, we can only say his team is statistically better on SF% with Doughty on the ice. His GF% is almost there but not quite.

    A better example of a difference making defenseman is Victor Hedman (2009-10 to 2016-17, 8 seasons, 548 games):

    Metric, Hedman On, Hedman Off

    SF%, 52.4, 49.9**
    sv%, 91.4, 92.1
    sh%, 9.2, 7.9**
    GF%, 54.1, 49.7**

    TBL is statistically better on SF%, sh%, and GF% with Hedman on the ice. They’re worse on sv% (perhaps a bit of what Ricki dislikes about offensive defensemen abandoning their defensive responsibilities and getting out of position to chase offense).

    The point of showing Hedman and Doughty’s numbers is to illustrate that over a number of seasons, very few NHL defensemen (who have managed to secure a long-term career in the league) produce results that stand out from the results of the teams that they play for. Most look like their teams, some a little worse, some a little better.

    I would argue that over the course of their careers, Sekera has been a little worse than his teams and Russell has been a little better. There are mysteries like Dan Girardi and Jack Johnson, defensemen who have had long careers delivering worse results than their teams. Russell is not that type of player.

  77. OriginalPouzar says:

    Melvis:
    Just pretend we’re sitting around a table in a decent bar in Eddy…just shooting the breeze. And I’m just cracking wise, or unwise as the case may be.

    Regardless of the number of comments on any given day, OriginalPouzar’s blog zone entries account for 18.84% and 21.8978% of the total. Frankly, I don’t have a clue about exits. I read them all.

    Now let’s take a look at Russell…or attempt to from the usual camera perspective in tv-land. He’s posed behind the net – waiting, waiting, waiting. For what ? We don’t know.

    A line change? Probably. A specific forward? Maybe. Looch on the blue line fuckinng up the chip off the half wall in his skates? Probably. Seemingly. It’s happened all too often.

    I don’t have a problem with the analytics in terms of Russells’s top five zone exits. I have a problem with the quality, the content, and end result from my reading chair.

    And Pouzar, I keed, if you’re thinking of flaying me alive;)

    I know your kidding but we can likely all agree that 92.3% of those blog entries by me are akin to dumps off the glass and the definition of “uncontrolled exits”.

  78. GMB3 says:

    leadfarmer: Drai just went nearly ppg in the regular season and more than ppg in the playoffs.These two are in a completely different league.Don’t get me wrong.I would love to get Drai with a 6 mil cap hit but that wasn’t going to happen.I feel like the contract was a little rich but I also thought the McDavid contract was a little rich.I wonder if the Drai contract was negotiated first how much lower would the number have been.I’m guessing that it would have come in closer to that 7.5 per

    I can agree with this. Pretty good point and I would say my take on it is similar to yours.

    It’s the first really grey and rainy day of the fall here on the island, maybe I’m being a little mellow dramatic.

  79. treevojo says:

    OriginalPouzar,

    Your posts are certainly more dependable then the blind backhand passes through the slot.

  80. OriginalPouzar says:

    danny:
    Winning in a cap league means being smarter than most.

    McDavid’s linemates need to be locked in on reasonable contracts BEFORE they spend a season as Mcdavid’s linemate. It’s imperative. Why give guys you’re going to have to negotiate with in upcoming season or two, a career year?

    Strome should NOT play with McDavid until he signs an extension. It’s too late for Drai and Maroon (we are gonna lose him). But we gotta be SMART going forward.

    I’d see how much Detroit wanted for Anthanasiou, get permission to talk to his agent, and convince him 5 years playing on a line with McDavid for 3.75 per is a wise investment.

    What you say makes sense, however, McLellan needs to deploy his bench in a manner that gives his team the best chance to win the game on each and every night, irrespective of potential contracts, existing contracts, etc.

    Yes, that may have ramifications but, if Strome at 1RW gives us the best chance to win a hockey game, I cannot get on board with McLellan not deploying him there because it may spike his cap hit in the future.

  81. danny says:

    GMB3
    It’s the first really grey and rainy day of the fall here on the island, maybe I’m being a little mellow dramatic.

    Im guessing youre living on the rock?

  82. Melvis says:

    OriginalPouzar,

    Although a failed idealist/romantic from my youth – resulting in a considerable amount of cynicism in my third act (see When I’m 64)…I’m choosing to read you’re response as a seeing eye snap shot at true love.

  83. danny says:

    OriginalPouzar: What you say makes sense, however, McLellan needs to deploy his bench in a manner that gives his team the best chance to win the game on each and every night, irrespective of potential contracts, existing contracts, etc.

    Yes, that may have ramifications but, if Strome at 1RW gives us the best chance to win a hockey game, I cannot get on board with McLellan not deploying him there because it may spike his cap hit in the future.

    I agree completely on winning being the determining factor, but that’s where intelligent roster construction and management / deployment strategy with the coach becomes important.

    It’s fun having a line with stellar boxcars, but how much of a hit does the team take if you shave a bit off of the top line to boost the next line? McDavid is gonna get his regardless of who is on his line, imo.

  84. GMB3 says:

    danny: Im guessing youre living on the rock?

    Yessir. Nanaimo.

  85. OriginalPouzar says:

    I lived in Nanaimo for 6 weeks of my life – within Edgewood though – not the best 6 weeks of my life.

  86. Chachi says:

    GMB3: Part of me agrees with you here, but when I read some of woodguys blogs they outline the importance of being able to outscore your opponent without your top line on the ice, and I think there is value in that analysis. Signing Drai for 8.5 instead of 6.5 (fair value in my mind) reduces your ability to sign any veteran help down the lineup.

    I know this is isn’t a very popular opinion with the MSM/staples kool aid drinkers out there.. but if you look at Pittsburgh, they had their success when Crosby and Malkins contracts ate up a significantly smaller % of the cap.

    It would have been great to sign Draisaitl for 6.5 million for 8 years. Not sure what kool aid you have been drinking that would make you think that was possible.

    If you look at Pittsburgh they just won 2 straight cups with Malkin and Crosby taking up a significant amount of their cap.

  87. T0ML says:

    Game is 8:30 MDT tonight right? Cant wait ! Will have to jump between the game and the esks though I think ..

  88. russ99 says:

    Maybe the Oilers have access to actual player isolated zone entry and exit numbers and aren’t trying to distill a shots for total on the other side of the ice that 10 players affect down to a single CF% number for one player to assume who is good at exits and who isn’t.

    The sooner we get away from shot metrics and towards player and puck tracking the happier we’ll be.

  89. Melvis says:

    I spent a couple of hours in Nanaimo ( let’s see – May 17) on my way to Tofino. Didn’t seem like such a bad town. Along the water, anyway. What’s wrong with the joint?

  90. Richard S.S. says:

    Prejudgement as per my iPhone dictionary:
    to pass judgement on prematurely or without sufficient reflection or investigation.

    That’s so common on this site and just as common in real life. Check out what the Islander team was while Ryan Strome was there. Then tell us how many games that he’s played for the Oilers that you are basing your decisions on. Connor McDavid is friends with the Strome family and said he liked who they got in the trade. Until I see a season with him as an Oiler, I’m reserving my Judgement on how good he is.

    Thank You.

  91. Melvis says:

    Fuck, it’s not even regular season, and I’m already mixing the grape and the grain. lol

  92. Melvis says:

    I was watching a bit of curling earlier (women’s). There’s just something about hard, hard, harder that results in Romancing the Bone.

    Ok. I quit.

  93. JDî says:

    Melvis,

    Are you still trying to rid yourself from the memories of the Eager, Hordichuck, Brown days?

  94. BONE207 says:

    The articles will be a little longer, but won’t get bogged down with verbal diatribes.

    C’mon LT…that’s one of the top 3 reasons we come here. Along with the stats and of course the community that shares their thoughts here.

  95. rickithebear says:

    Georges:
    1. Oilers gain pocession

    2. Either forward with tries to penetrate OZ
    or
    a dman
    a. Transition passes to a forward
    b. Abandons his defence of free path to hd area to try to penetrate OZ

    3. Pass fails, forward/off d entry fails

    4. Pass is successful, forward or Off dman entry is successful.

    5. Dump as an entry
    a. Puck retrieval
    B. Filed puck retrieval

    6. Attempt at hd penetration
    A. Give away
    b. Low danger corsi x,y
    C. High danger corsi x,y

    We know if the forwards/off dmen are low in oz with pocession loss.
    Thier is almost no NZ trap from forwards
    Leading to dmen less likely to press blue line.
    Resulting in high comp entry
    And
    Dmen collapsing to defend HD area.

    This results in high CA rates generated by forwards and offensive d.
    CA is almost 100% offensive failure from forwards/Off dmen.

    So when measuring dmen

    We start at CA created by offensive failure.
    So dmen can defensively infuence by

    1. HD area penetration prevention
    30 shot game
    Dpairs establish an hd mean goalies perform around.

    Worst:
    14.00 hd shots/60
    14 x .825 = 2.45ga; 16 ld shots x .965 = .56
    The dpair SV% mean goalies perform around is .899

    Avg:
    10.5 hd shots; 19.5 Ld shots
    The dpair save% mean is .916

    Best:
    7.5 Hd shots; 22.5 ld shots
    The Dpair mean is .930

    That would be the fullrange of starter save%

    Remember for all these years when I stated the concept of PDO luck was fucking embarrasing.

    But for all these years i thought everyone could visual 3D matrixes to esrablish situational means
    For comp, team, ZS.
    Or visuaslixe 10 column array graphs. The array shapes are instantly recognizanle.

    So i just laid it out for you.

    The concept of PDO is utter bull shit.
    I simplified it to a stupid masses level.

    It is not PDO (bullshit)

    It is a goalies GA performance Around Dpairs save% mean or Shot density.

    So it is hd affect number.
    Dpair hd mean +/- goalie save% performance.

    PDO fucking embarrasing.
    10 years you have embarrased the analytics world with this value.

    2. Dmen shot supression is causing the highest % of 0% chance of going in per corsi against on dman,s side.

    0% chance Corsi = (dman,s individual blocks + misses on his side + closed shots on his side)

    Closed shots are the shots that hit the goalie with no accelerated movement.
    Hit pads
    Hit 5 hole flapper
    Hits stick on ice
    Hits blocker
    Shot in glove
    Hits chest protector
    Hits shoulders
    Hits helmet.c
    These have no chance of going in

    The best 0% Corsi Dman is kris Russell
    (Closed Corsi dman,s side)/Corsi against dman,s side.
    Thats right analytics has been able to define him.
    Since day 1.

    3. Goalie performance
    We can also measure a goalies ga performance relative to shot density.
    If we take a standard shot chart first generated by alan ryder in his 2006 shot quality.
    You tske the cummulative total of success % for each shot.

    A 145% total suggest 1.45 ga defence for the game.
    So we measure a goalies performance relative to that.

    But this process set up to simplfy for masses.
    Avg
    Shot/gm 30
    Avg Ld shots 19.5
    Avg hd shots 10.5
    Avg ld shot sucess rate 3.5%
    Avg HD shot rate is 17.5%
    Hdsh/ ldsh = 17.5/3.5 = 5/1
    Simplified:
    Ldsh = 1
    Hdsh = 5

    19.5 x1 = 19.5
    10.5 x5 = 52.5
    Standard shot density is 72

    You can now generate a curve to measure a goalies performance to:
    Ga vs avg density ratio
    72 /1= 72
    72/1.5 = 48
    72/2 = 36
    72/2.25 = 32
    72/2.5 = 28.8
    72/2.75 = 26.2
    72/3 = 24
    72/3.5 = 20.6
    72/4 = 18

    Earlier this year elliot gave up 4 goals against with 1 weak goal.
    However he faced a shot density of 142.
    142 almost 2 full games worth.
    142/4ga = 35.5
    Which is 2.06 ga performance.
    Elliot was elite performing around worldclass level of defensive awful.

    After this game i listened to sportsnet 960 dean mulberg say elliot was bad.
    Often repetedly pointing out the weak goal.

    4. Repeatable performance ( fooled eye performance scouting)
    Mulbergs masure of play is a ceiling or bottom error approach.
    Loking for a players non repeatable ceiling or basement.

    Souray was aclassic example.
    He would have adefensive blow out every 200 – 400 shifts.
    That one poor blow by would be in peoples minds.
    A fooled eye approach.
    Aplayer is a sum of all plays.
    A ga pkay is one ga play weather ir is a blow out or a simple hardly visible leaverage failure in front of the net. They are the same.

    The question is how many per 200 shifts.
    Souray had one of the lowest mistake rates in the game.
    A belichek and bear player.

    1. Pdo sucks
    Dpair save% mean +/- goalie save% performance.
    Zero luck!

    2. Dpair HD Corsi x,y performance

    3. Dman side (0% chance corsi)/corsi against.
    Supression d russell #1

    4. Goalie performance relative to team defence shot density allowed.
    (Shot density)/ ga
    Extrapolated on avg sh density/ga curve.

    5. Players true performance repatabilty.
    Player who follow the system andother players can trust in that system.
    Hall not a F… Chance
    Eberle not a F… Chance
    Mcdavid yes allways lead the play!
    RNH yes yes yes
    Draisatl yes yes yes
    Kassian tes yes yes
    Jokinen yes yes yes
    Slepyshev yes yes yes

    Russel highest % in game with highest 0% corsi rate in game
    Larsson yes yes yes
    Sekera yes yes yes
    Benning yes yes yes
    Klefbom no
    Nurse no

    Talbot yes yes yes

  96. GMB3 says:

    Chachi: It would have been great to sign Draisaitl for 6.5 million for 8 years. Not sure what kool aid you have been drinking that would make you think that was possible.

    If you look at Pittsburgh they just won 2 straight cups with Malkin and Crosby taking up a significant amount of their cap.

    If you look at the the percentages of the cap those contracts took up when they were signed compared to when they won the two cups you would see what I mean. When his shooting percentage regresses and he spends more time centring his own line he’ll look a lot more like a 6.5-7 million dollar player.

    As the cap went up and the percentage those two contracts took up went down they had more success.

  97. GMB3 says:

    OriginalPouzar:
    I lived in Nanaimo for 6 weeks of my life – within Edgewood though – not the best 6 weeks of my life.

    That’s too bad. I’ve known a few people who’ve gone through it and one of my former teammates and good buddies worked as a councillor there. As long as it helped I suppose it’s not the worst 6 weeks either

  98. OriginalPouzar says:

    Thanks – I didn’t do well in Edgewood and did not leave voluntarily – thankfully they set me up at a 2nd facility in New Newwestminser and that was just over 5 years ago.

    Life is amazing now.

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