YOUNG STARS GAME THREE: OILERS V. CANUCKS

The Edmonton Oilers have a chance to sweep Penticton this afternoon, but they’ll have to do it against the team brimming with draft pedigree. That’s the mantle owned by the Oil for the last several years, but this time Vancouver owns the lottery kids.

PROJECTED OILERS LINEUP

  • Joe Gambardella(2gp, 1-1-2)—Chad Butcher (2gp, 3-1-4)—Kailer Yamamoto (1gp, 0-0-0)
  • Grayson Pawlenchuk(1gp, 0-0-0)—Ethan Szypula (1gp, 0-0-0)—Ostap Safin (1gp, 0-0-0)
  • Evan Polei(2gp, 1-0-1)—Lane Bauer(2gp, 0-0-0)—Luke Coleman (1gp, 1-0-1)
  • Kirill Maksimov(2gp, 1-2-3)—Austin Glover(1gp, 0-0-0)—Trey Fix-Wolansky (2gp, 0-0-0)
  • Caleb Jones(1gp, 0-1-1)—Ryan Mantha(1gp, 0-2-2)
  • Ziyat Paigin(1gp, 0-0-0)—Sahvan Khaira(1gp,, 0-0-0)
  • Liam Schioler(1gp, 0-0-0)—Austin Strand(1gp, 0-0-0)
  • Shane Starrett (Dylan Wells)

Players I am most looking forward to seeing today include Kailer Yamamoto, Joe Gambardella, Caleb Jones, Ziyat Paigin and Shane Starrett. Invites worth paying attention to include Sahvan Khaira and Luke Coleman. I assume Chad Butcher will score at least one goal. The end of this tournament will mean several of these names being released to their club teams and also opens up the window for the main Oilers training camp list. Oilers will stream the game via the website and youtube channel.

 

written by

The author didn‘t add any Information to his profile yet.
Related Posts

120 Responses to "YOUNG STARS GAME THREE: OILERS V. CANUCKS"

  1. stevebergeron97 says:

    LT you have kept me sane all summer long 🙏🙏
    Super pumped to see Yamamoto & Maksimov this
    afternoon!

  2. dustrock says:

    Is Juolevi playing? He was the guy I wanted least out of him, Chychrun and the Russian whose name escapes me.

  3. russ99 says:

    I hope to see Yamamoto do better when he’s covered tonight, that’s going to play a large part as to his development curve.

    When you get to the pros, you just can’t blow by people anymore, unless your name is Connor McDavid.

    My other takeaway from the Young Stars tourney other than how suddenly flush we are at goaltender is that last year Matt Benning was where Ryan Mantha is now, albeit Mantha is a year younger. I wonder if we can be so lucky that lightning can strike twice?

  4. frjohnk says:

    Can somebody please check on Original Pouzar?

    New post is up and he is nowhere to be seen.

    I fear the worst.

  5. Lowetide says:

    First four minutes, little momentum. Everyone has had a shift but not much to report.

  6. Todd Macallan says:

    Early but Starrett with a beautiful save on the breakaway and is looking to keep pace with the performances by Wells and Skinner.

  7. nvan97 says:

    I was a little surprised today to find out that Ryan Mantha is not the son of Moe Mantha. They may be related but I can’t find anything on that.

  8. Lowetide says:

    Lots of watching by Edmonton on Vancovuer goal, Starrett looked good on first save but couldn’t corral the puck.

  9. Todd Macallan says:

    nvan97,

    Grandfather.

  10. OriginalPouzar says:

    frjohnk:
    Can somebody please check on Original Pouzar?

    New post is up and he is nowhere to be seen.

    I fear the worst.

    I appreciate the concern – been an a conference call for the last 85 minutes – damn clients.

    Just got the stream up a few minutes ago and it looks/sounds like its been all Canucks. A goal and two posts.

    In addition to the top line, I’m interested to see Safin as well as Paigin and Mantha – wonder if Mantha can impress like he did in game one.

  11. Lowetide says:

    nvan97:
    I was a little surprised today to find out that Ryan Mantha is not the son of Moe Mantha. They may be related but I can’t find anything on that.

    Moe Mantha is his uncle

  12. dustrock says:

    If Yamamotor can’t deliver here, seems highly doubtful he’ll get more than a cursory look at TC.

  13. Lowetide says:

    Starrett is the only Oiler who I would give a good grade to this period. Lots of standing around.

  14. oilinthepeg says:

    Love that they are rocking the Dance Mix ’95 on the PA during this game. ha! For these kids these are ‘classic jock jams’!

  15. Lowetide says:

    A nice shot from the point from Paigin.

  16. Todd Macallan says:

    Would love to see a radar gun on Paigin vs Mantha vs Bear, jeez.

  17. OriginalPouzar says:

    I’m seeing Paigin pretty bad out there – is that just me?

  18. oilinthepeg says:

    Carcone is killing this sleeping team. Sheeeesh.

  19. JDî says:

    Lowetide: Lots of standing around.

    Afternoon games and the Oilers.

    Also, can somebody check that Carconi guy please? Thanks!

  20. Lowetide says:

    Liam Schioler gets schioled on the second Vancouver goal of the game. 2-0. Michael Carcone has both markers, Canucks outclassing Edmonton.

  21. OriginalPouzar says:

    Is this period going to send the Oilers Vegas Cup odds down the toilet?

  22. Lowetide says:

    16-4 shots and 2-0 lead for Vancouver. Starrett played well to my eye, lots of errant passes and puck watching for the Oilers in that period.

  23. Todd Macallan says:

    Kailer showing signs of life with some great PK hustle. Upside of the team coming out sluggish is more of a chance to evaluate Starrett. Despite the score I think he has looked great so far, very athletic, sound positioning.

  24. Lowetide says:

    Fantastic shorthanded shift by Yamamoto brilliant at both ends of the ice.

  25. Lowetide says:

    Gambardella give and go with Butcher, very nice. Yamamoto with the screen.

  26. delooper says:

    Khaira looks like a bigger version of his older brother. Didn’t know the Oilers drafted him, or is it a tryout?

  27. delooper says:

    2-2 Paigin

  28. Lowetide says:

    Paigin rips the puck, 2-2.

  29. Lowetide says:

    delooper:
    Khaira looks like a bigger version of his older brother.Didn’t know the Oilers drafted him, or is it a tryout?

    Tryout.

  30. Todd Macallan says:

    Yamamoto wont get an assist on the first goal but his net front battle was integral. Best part of the second goal was not just the cannon but the awkward leap into the glass. Vertical like that he couldnt jump over a credit card.

  31. Rebilled says:

    Nice shot.

  32. Lloyd B. says:

    Lowetide:
    Gambardella give and gowith Butcher, very nice. Yamamoto with the screen.

    I’m not sure it was Yamamoto with the screen. I believe he caused the screen because of the two Vancouver guys working him over in front. 🙂

  33. JDî says:

    delooper: Khaira looks like a bigger version of his older brother.

    According to the stats, he’s slightly smaller than JJ.

  34. Lowetide says:

    Nice defensive play by Lane Bauer.

  35. OriginalPouzar says:

    I go to a meeting for 45 minutes and miss two goals?

    I need to retire – sigh, only 20 years to go.

  36. dessert1111 says:

    Butcher has a window this year to get an NHL contract. He’s an older prospect but is showing very well. I don’t think he’ll get one coming out of camp but I’d be surprised if it wasn’t at least discussed internally.

    If he has a good start in the AHL I can see them moving another contract like Chase to sign him as skilled forward depth. Goodness knows the big club needs it.

  37. JDî says:

    tents fingers

    Excellent…

  38. Lowetide says:

    Gambardella again, some nice work by Yamamoto leading up to the goal.

  39. Johnny says:

    WG,

    I have a question about your blog w.r.t. Increased Oiler scoring year over year with and without McD on the ice. Sorry, I’m on my phone, can’t copy the link.

    Oilers scored 10 more goals last year w/o McD, but is my understanding correct in that there was roughly double the amount of ‘non-McDavid ice time’ available for goals to be scored due to his injury?

    If I am understanding it correctly, yes, McD was a huge boost for the 16/17 season, but goals per minute without McD was much worse in 15/16.

    And, since you claim you actually like Chiarelli (???), I would like more clarity on what his bad moves were:

    Reinhart (we all agree)
    Hall?
    Eberle?
    Pouliot buy-out?
    Drai contract?

    Is that where you are at?

  40. Rebilled says:

    Classic Nucks.

  41. Todd Macallan says:

    Mantha-Paigin on the ice together are laughably oversized.

    Great cross ice one timer by Yamamoto. The give a shit is strong in that one.

  42. Johnny says:

    Oops, how could I forget:

    Russel (no question mark required)
    Lucic signing?

    And let’s try to keep the “yes, but” answers to a minimum. You know the ones that allow you to talk out both sides of your mouth. So, for example, either you like the Drai signing or you would have bridged him.

  43. Lowetide says:

    Much better period, Oilers still outshout 13-10. Yamamoto’s best period of the tournament, he is a blur. Paigin’s shot is ridiculous and this is the third great goalie performance in a row from three different goaltenders. I don’t recall that happening at this tournament previously.

  44. Todd Macallan says:

    Also cant say enough about Starrett thru two periods. Seems to be communicating well with his dmen which I appreciate as a former goaler

  45. delooper says:

    JDî: According to the stats, he’s slightly smaller than JJ.

    Weird. His cousin works in the store down the street from me. From pictures (and his testimony) Sahvan is clearly taller. . . not certain how sites get their data.

  46. Todd Macallan says:

    Lowetide,

    Agreed on all fronts. At this rate does each goalie get a period vs Nait/GMac?

    Obviously not possible but would be well deserved.

  47. oilinthepeg says:

    Todd Macallan,

    Yup.
    It’s the stat I care most about.
    Old-fashioned, I know… but…
    Nice to watch players like that.
    Screaming at TV/60 just gets lower!

  48. JDî says:

    delooper: His cousin works in the store down the street from me.

    I was wondering how you were judging that SK was bigger.

    I dunno – tourney roster listing had him a 6′ 3″, and JK is listed at 6′ 4″.

  49. Woodguy v2.0 says:

    A friend of mine lives in Penticton and went to the first two games.

    Here’s his take-away:

    We only went to the first two games but this is who impressed me:

    Khaira – the guy has quick feet for a big guy.
    Maksimov – pro shot with a quick release.
    Polei – the guy is a tank. Possible future 4th line grit guy
    Safin – big and fast. Needs some edge.
    I hope they get invited to main camp.

    I know Butcher had a bunch of points but I don’t see him making the jump to the NHL.

  50. Lowetide says:

    Brilliant goal by Safin. Lordy.

  51. OriginalPouzar says:

    What a shot by Safin – large man with large talent.

  52. Todd Macallan says:

    Ostap, hammer time! Before that unreal shot his size had been the only impressive aspect of his tourney. What a tantalizing package (phrasing, I know).

  53. Lowetide says:

    Yamamoto with a gorgeous pass, good shot but no goal.Yamamoto lost his stick but hauled ass back anyway and marked his man.

  54. OriginalPouzar says:

    Lowetide: Tryout.

    I think it was Fleming that said he was surprised he was not drafted.

  55. OriginalPouzar says:

    dessert1111:
    Butcher has a window this year to get an NHL contract. He’s an older prospect but is showing very well. I don’t think he’ll get one coming out of camp but I’d be surprised if it wasn’t at least discussed internally.

    If he has a good start in the AHL I can see them moving another contract like Chase to sign him as skilled forward depth. Goodness knows the big club needs it.

    I don’t think they’d offer him an NHL contract until the season is over due to the 50 contract limit.

  56. jake70 says:

    Just turned the game on…..gotta say the streaming is great compared to other years.

  57. jtblack says:

    Johnny,

    Oilers scored 10 more goals last year w/o McD — I am not wWooduy but just thought I would say one little piece from his article. The Oilers scoring increased with McDavid off the ice and with McDavid on the ice on a per / 60 basis. The Improvement when he was off the ice was marginal however. And I think what Woodguy has tried to say is that the very best teams don’t have as much drop off when their star is off the ice. Simply meaning although the Oilers did get better in scoring when McDavid was off the ice; they still need to improve that metric slightly to be a true top contending team.

    And Woodguy if I got that information wrong , I apologize ahead of time

  58. OriginalPouzar says:

    Looks like they’ll be a good finish!

  59. delooper says:

    Hmm. weird one

  60. dessert1111 says:

    Mantha is good in the O zone and seems to be able to defend in tight but man his turning reminds me of Ryan Whitney post-injury. He gets absolutely blown by.

  61. dessert1111 says:

    OriginalPouzar: I don’t think they’d offer him an NHL contract until the season is over due to the 50 contract limit.

    Likely not but that’s why I said they would need to move a contract out like Chase in order to do it in-season.

    Either way he’d have to continue to impress as the competition gets tougher and the org would have to think he could provide skilled forward depth this year, something that a guy like Chase likely won’t be able to do.

  62. jake70 says:

    ha…nice

  63. JDî says:

    To the Maks!

  64. Todd Macallan says:

    What is he do- what a goal!

  65. JDî says:

    Gene: The Kirill Shot.

    Because he’s the master.

  66. OriginalPouzar says:

    Wow – Maksimov – I’m just loving that kid.

    He can shoot the puck, can’t he?

  67. GMB3 says:

    Safin looked bad there in the 3 on 3. Mantha made a nice defensive play on Carcone there but By Gord he is not a smooth skater

  68. The Trade Guy says:

    The Oilers are cool and it’s cool to like them again.

    I just sent a link to my nephew who cheers for the loser Dys with the subject. “The rest of your childhood.”

  69. Todd Macallan says:

    1. Starrett (first Starrett)
    2. Yamamoto
    3. 3rd period Safin

  70. OriginalPouzar says:

    Overall, I had a fantastic time watching the tournament.

    We sure drafted some talent this past year in Samorukov, Yamamoto, Maksimov and Safin – and Skinner.

    Our forward prospect pool looks alot better than it did before this year’s draft.

    Lets hope than Benson can play a full season become a real prospect against and bridge the gap until the newly drafted are ready.

  71. Woodguy v2.0 says:

    Johnny:
    WG,

    I have a question about your blog w.r.t. Increased Oiler scoring year over year with and without McD on the ice. Sorry, I’m on my phone, can’t copy the link.

    Oilers scored 10 more goals last year w/o McD, but is my understanding correct in that there was roughly double the amount of ‘non-McDavidice time’ available for goals to be scored due to his injury?

    If I am understanding it correctly, yes, McD was a huge boost for the 16/17 season, but goals per minute without McD was much worse in 15/16.

    And, since you claim you actually like Chiarelli (???), I would like more clarity on what his bad moves were:

    Reinhart (we all agree)
    Hall?
    Eberle?
    Pouliot buy-out?
    Drai contract?

    Is that where you are at?

    Goals/60 increased slightly 5v5 for both McDavid and non-McDavid on ice for the Oilers and slightly 5v4 without McDavid and quite a bit with him.

    5v5 with McDavid +0.17
    5v5 without McDavid +.018

    5v4 with McDavid +1.52 (huge increase in rate)
    5v4 without McDavid +0.20

    Overall with McDavid GF/60 +0.29
    Overall without McDavid GF/60 +0.10

    Now the TOI is where is comes home to roost.

    Since there was so much more “McDavid on ice” and less “McDavid off ice” we saw this:

    5v5 McDavid on ice +42 goals
    5v5 McDavid off ice -10 goals

    5v4 McDavid on ice +20 goals
    5v4 McDavid off ice -10 goals

    Total
    McDavid on +62 goals
    McDavid off ice -20 goals

    While the scoring rate increase with McDavid off the ice increased slightly (I think the improved Dcorps plays a big part in that) , the vast majority of the increase in goals for was due to McDavid’s TOI and the increase in rate 5v4 with him on the ice.

    Bad moves:
    Reinhart deal
    Hall for Dman – they needed a Dman, I think he unrated Kelfbom in his decision to sell Hall to get one
    Russell 2nd contract – too much too long
    Lucic contract – too long

    If the Oilers have to move RNH or Sekera with Russell and Lucic on the roster that’s a loss imo. There’s still a chance for both Russell and Lucic to not be bad moves (Lucic improves 5v5 and he’s able to move Russell if he needs to dump salary instead of RNH or Sekera)

    Drai is overpaid and I hope he eventually covers the bet, but overpaying Drai by ~$1.5MM doesn’t qualify as a “bad move”

    as for liking Chiarelli:
    -McDavid for 8 years instead of 5 is EVERYTHING
    -Klefbom contract
    -Sekera signing
    -amateur drafting is way better
    -Benning was a great signing
    -I think Caggulia will be good
    -Maroon was brilliant
    -Russell on a 1 year as stop gap was exactly what was needed
    -Kassian was a ballsy bet that paid off well, almost no cost

    There’s more but that’s a lot of it

  72. Bank Shot says:

    Talbot trade was huge.
    Letestu was a nice signing. Not a great ES guy, but a real swiss army knife.
    Klefbom extension looks great if he can remain healthy.

  73. russ99 says:

    Woodguy v2.0,

    Russell got a 900k raise and he’s easily movable the last two years of his contract. He can still skate and he’s playing the Ference defensive mentor role better than Ference based on Larsson’s and Benning’s comments.

    I don’t call that too much salary or a loss.

    I’m curious as to the goals against was with McDavid and without, since goals for isn’t the complete picture.

  74. godot10 says:

    Russell effectively has a no move contract. It is easy for him to list teams who have no cap room to trade for him, much less need him.

    I expect the last two years will be like Ference on LTIR. They will dream up an injury.

  75. Chachi says:

    godot10:
    Russell effectively has a no move contract.It is easy for him to list teams who have no cap room to trade for him, much less need him.

    You keep writing this and it continues to not be true.

  76. Woodguy v2.0 says:

    Bank Shot:
    Talbot trade was huge.
    Letestu was a nice signing. Not a great ES guy, but a real swiss army knife.
    Klefbom extension looks great if he can remain healthy.

    Yeah, missed that big awesome move too

  77. godot10 says:

    Chachi: You keep writing this and it continues to not be true.

    We shall see in a couple of years who is right and who is wrong. Russell is basically untradeable if he doesn’t want to be traded. And he seems pretty set on only signing amd playing in Alberta, so him changing his mind in two years seems like wishful thinking.

  78. OriginalPouzar says:

    russ99:
    Woodguy v2.0,

    Russell got a 900k raise and he’s easily movable the last two years of his contract. He can still skate and he’s playing the Ference defensive mentor role better than Ference based on Larsson’s and Benning’s comments.

    I don’t call that too much salary or a loss.

    I’m curious as to the goals against was with McDavid and without, since goals for isn’t the complete picture.

    A raise doesn’t mean anything if its not deserved. Don’t get me wrong, I think he provided value last year at $3.1M, I don’t think he will provide value at $4M, especially not for the duration of the contract.

    The verbal that the contract “will be tradeable” in two years is just speculation. If we are looking to get out of the contract then chances are extremely high that he’s not performing up to its requirements – not to mention that I personally don’t like contracts that are signed with the knowledge that the team is very likely going to want/get rid of it during its term.

    Also, with respect to the raise, older players (approaching 30) often need to take less AAV in order to get more term.

    Chia lost with respect to AAV/Cap Hit, Term and trade prorection – I am a big fan of Chia but he lost on this contract.

    With that said, Chia was in a bind – with the Sekera injury and Russell a UFA he needed to sign or acquire at least one d-man with 2nd pairing experience. I do think he panicked and got pigeon-eyed on this player – who he does clearly like.

    Don’t get me wrong, we’d be screwed if we didn’t re-sign him or get an adequate replacement, however, I think Chia could have waited a little longer and negotiated a little more firmly.

    Oh well, it is what it is and we are a better team right now with Russell on it than without.

  79. Johnny says:

    Woodguy v2.0: Goals/60 increased slightly 5v5 for both McDavid and non-McDavid on ice for the Oilers and slightly 5v4 without McDavid and quite a bit with him.

    5v5 with McDavid +0.17
    5v5 without McDavid +.018

    5v4 with McDavid +1.52 (huge increase in rate)
    5v4 without McDavid +0.20

    Overall with McDavid GF/60 +0.29
    Overall without McDavid GF/60 +0.10

    Now the TOI is where is comes home to roost.

    Since there was so much more “McDavid on ice” and less “McDavid off ice” we saw this:

    5v5 McDavid on ice +42 goals
    5v5 McDavid off ice -10 goals

    5v4 McDavid on ice +20 goals
    5v4 McDavid off ice -10 goals

    Total
    McDavid on +62 goals
    McDavid off ice -20 goals

    While the scoring rate increase with McDavid off the ice increased slightly (I think the improved Dcorps plays a big part in that) , the vast majority of the increase in goals for was due to McDavid’s TOI and the increase in rate 5v4 with him on the ice.

    Bad moves:
    Reinhart deal
    Hall forDman – they needed a Dman, I think he unrated Kelfbom in his decision to sell Hall to get one
    Russell 2nd contract – too much too long
    Lucic contract – too long

    If the Oilers have to move RNH or Sekera with Russell and Lucic on the roster that’s a loss imo.There’s still a chance for both Russell and Lucic to not be bad moves (Lucic improves 5v5 and he’s able to move Russell if he needs to dump salary instead of RNH or Sekera)

    Drai is overpaid and I hope he eventually covers the bet, but overpaying Drai by ~$1.5MM doesn’t qualify as a “bad move”

    as for liking Chiarelli:
    -McDavid for 8 years instead of 5 is EVERYTHING
    -Klefbom contract
    -Sekera signing
    -amateur drafting is way better
    -Benning was a great signing
    -I think Caggulia will be good
    -Maroon was brilliant
    -Russell on a 1 year as stop gap was exactly what was needed
    -Kassian was a ballsy bet that paid off well, almost no cost

    There’s more but that’s a lot of it

    I missed the fact you broke it down by TOI.

    So let me get this straight…goal scoring increased equally 5×5 both w and w/o mcdavid and mcdavid is the ONLY reason goal scoring increased. Got it.

    As for Chia’s “bad moves” I was hoping we wouldn’t talk about over paying Drai, Russell too much too long, Lucic too long. You either pay the price or you don’t get the player. I know you would take Demers/ Hall over Lucic/Larsson and just made a case that Pouliot is not as good as Lucic, but not far off. I am not sure how you would have replaced Russell instead of signing him to a 4 year deal, but based on available free agents, your replacement would have cost assets.

    What changes were made to have the players talking so much about how tight the dressing room is? Doesn’t matter….Long story short, I’m glad you’re not the GM.

  80. Chachi says:

    godot10: We shall see in a couple of years who is right and who is wrong.Russell is basically untradeable if he doesn’t want to be traded.And he seems pretty set on only signing amd playing in Alberta, so him changing his mind in two years seems like wishful thinking.

    I suppose he could play so well the Oilers decide they want to keep him for the full 4 years – HA!

  81. GMB3 says:

    Johnny,

    I don’t understand if you are purposefully trying to troll here or your reading comprehension is so poor you don’t understand the gist of what WG is saying?

    “the vast majority of the increase in goals for was due to McDavid’s TOI”

    The stats he used show that the vast majority of the improvement regarding goals for did come as a result of having McDavid for an entire season opposed to slightly over half of a season. This is a fact, not an opinion.

    When it comes to production in relation to TOI, Benoit Pouliot’s numbers aren’t far off Milan Lucic’s over the last 3 seasons. Also a fact.

    Trying to twist someone’s words to create your own narrative doesn’t make them look bad, it makes you look bad. Even more so when you make it apparent you don’t have the capacity to look at the numbers without bias to try and create a reasoned argument, or even attempt to understand the person you want to debate and their position.

  82. GMB3 says:

    OriginalPouzar: A raise doesn’t mean anything if its not deserved.Don’t get me wrong, I think he provided value last year at $3.1M, I don’t think he will provide value at $4M, especially not for the duration of the contract.

    The verbal that the contract “will be tradeable” in two years is just speculation.If we are looking to get out of the contract then chances are extremely high that he’s not performing up to its requirements – not to mention that I personally don’t like contracts that are signed with the knowledge that the team is very likely going to want/get rid of it during its term.

    Also, with respect to the raise, older players (approaching 30) often need to take less AAV in order to get more term.

    Chia lost with respect to AAV/Cap Hit, Term and trade prorection – I am a big fan of Chia but he lost on this contract.

    With that said, Chia was in a bind – with the Sekera injury and Russell a UFA he needed to sign or acquire at least one d-man with 2nd pairing experience. I do think he panicked and got pigeon-eyed on this player – who he does clearly like.

    Don’t get me wrong, we’d be screwed if we didn’t re-sign him or get an adequate replacement, however, I think Chia could have waited a little longer and negotiated a little more firmly.

    Oh well, it is what it is and we are a better team right now with Russell on it than without.

    Well said.

  83. GMB3 says:

    Johnny: I missed the fact you broke it down by TOI.

    So let me get this straight…goal scoring increased equally 5×5 both w and w/o mcdavid and mcdavid is the ONLY reason goal scoring increased. Got it.

    As for Chia’s “bad moves” I was hoping we wouldn’t talk about over paying Drai, Russell too much too long, Lucic too long. You either pay the price or you don’t get the player. I know you would take Demers/ Hall overLucic/Larsson and just made a case that Pouliot is not as good as Lucic, but not far off.I am not sure how you would have replaced Russell instead of signing him to a 4 year deal, but based on available free agents, your replacement would have cost assets.

    What changes were made to have the players talking so much about how tight the dressing room is? Doesn’t matter….Long story short, I’m glad you’re not the GM.

    Also, I really don’t understand how you look at those numbers and think 5v5 scoring increased equally with and without McDavid. 0.17 and 0.018 aren’t equal numbers.

  84. Johnny says:

    GMB3:
    Johnny,

    I don’t understand if you are purposefully trying to troll here or your reading comprehension is so poor you don’t understand the gist of what WG is saying?

    “the vast majority of the increase in goals for was due to McDavid’s TOI”

    The stats he used show that the vast majority of the improvement regarding goals for did come as a result of having McDavid for an entire season opposed to slightly over half of a season. This is a fact, not an opinion.

    When it comes to production in relation to TOI, Benoit Pouliot’s numbers aren’t far off Milan Lucic’s over the last 3 seasons. Also a fact.

    Trying to twist someone’s words to create your own narrative doesn’t make them look bad, it makes you look bad. Even more so when you make it apparent you don’t have the capacity to look at the numbers without bias to try and create a reasoned argument, or even attempt to understand the person you want to debate and their position.

    WG: “McDavid’s increased time on ice from 15/16 to 16/17 had such a large impact that if you made an argument that it was the only reason the Oilers’ goal total improved and I’d be hard pressed to argue against it.” Keep in mind, in his blog post ” the only reason” was bolded and underlined.

    So when goal scoring w/o McDavid in 16/17 increases (by 0.18/60), it leads me to believe there was a reason besides MacDavid that caused goal scoring to increase. Is that not sound logic? And I argue it, because he so emphatically states that is not the case and takes a shot at the team architect in doing so. I argue it, because he so emphatically said the Hall trade would crush the Oilers and GF went up. I argue it, because, that TOI w/o McDavid was also TOI w/o Drai for the most part, and scoring still went up. And according to him, “the only reason” was McDavid.

    Nobody is arguing those cherry picked 5×5 numbers of Pouliots. We ( I am not alone) think he loses all credibility when he bases the value of a player on points, corsi, GF/60 and whatever else can be spit out of a computer. Lucic brings much more to the table. Fact. And the only stat that shows it is W’s.

    So no, I am not trolling. And I am not the only one who looks at numbers with bias. That is his whole game, and that BP shit makes him look like a complete quack.

  85. Johnny says:

    GMB3: Also, I really don’t understand how you look at those numbers and think 5v5 scoring increased equally with and without McDavid. 0.17 and 0.018 aren’t equal numbers.

    0.018 is a misprint. its 0.18.

  86. Dac189 says:

    I believe the 0.018 increase is a lot better than it seems.

    if McDavid is healthy, our top 4 lines are

    Maroon-CMD-Drai
    Line 2
    Line 3
    Line 4

    So the ‘5v5 scoring/60 without McDavid’ is taking into account lines 2,3 and 4 when McDavid is on the bench

    But, when McDavid was injured, 5v5 scoring/60 would account for lines 1,2,3 and 4.
    This would theoretically inflate the team 5v5 g/60 since the first line scores at a greater rate than the other 3 lines.

    I think it would be better to compare the team scoring without McDavid this year and the team scoring without McDavid last year while he was still on the bench (not injured).

  87. Johnny says:

    The .18 translates into 15 more ES goals scored (without McDavid) over 82 games the year after they traded Taylor Hall. And Hall primarily played without McDavid.

  88. GMB3 says:

    Johnny: 0.018 is a misprint.its 0.18.

    Well shit. I didn’t look into it beyond his post in this thread.
    In defending the Lucic/BP comparison, I completely see his point. He also said he would take Lucic over BP. Pouliot scored well when he played in Edmonton up until this season. People want to fire him into the sun after this year, but its a fair comparison that Lucic’s numbers at even strength were bad, but to take out what is a poor year in that discipline, he provided several years and compared their totals.

    At the end of the day, 5v5 scoring isn’t a cherry picked stat. Prior to this season, when BP played he scored at a good rate in Edmonton. 5v5 scoring is important. And I’ve shit on BP his entire time in Edmonton because I thought he was lazy. The guy has talent though. WG compared their numbers because it Oilers fans on this site show ridiculous amounts of favouritism in regards to certain players. Lucic did not have a good year, but if all you look at is the box cars, his season looks salvageable because of his success on the PP.

    It’s a joke that people here think Lucic is a be-all end-all because he’s a tough guy who can play. We gave him a huge contract and we have a guy who’s done all these “Lucic-type player things” for significantly less money in Pat Maroon.

    And unless you can definitively prove that the increase in W’s is a result of Lucic and that’s an absolute, then I’d love to see this proof, but you can’t really say that Lucic is the reason we had a 103 point season

    Just to clear this up, I’m not saying that I’d take BP over Lucic. I value other aspects of his game as well, but it looks like that contract is going to be an anchor sooner rather than later. I don’t think the contracts to either of these players were good contracts. I’m pretty middle of the road on Chia. He’s a better GM than we’ve seen, but he’s made some questionable trades and contracts.

    And FWIW I think that the 5v5 scoring W/O McDavid should go up as a result of having him for an entire season because the W/O portion of the lineup isn’t playing against the other teams elite players, especially teams with great shut down pairings, as often as they would be sans-McDavid. If that makes any sense. Basically giving lines 2 through 4 more “soft” minutes.

  89. GMB3 says:

    Johnny:
    The .18 translates into 15 more ES goals scored (without McDavid) over 82 games the year after they traded Taylor Hall. And Hall primarily played without McDavid.

    The .18 doesn’t translate into 15 more ES goals because it’s per 60 minutes. There was significantly less W/O McDavid time this season. And Hall didn’t primarily play with McDavid. I want to say not at all after the first couple of games. He spent a lot of 15/16 with Drai as his centre. If you think he primarily played with McDavid, that should point out some of the faults with the eye test right there.

  90. GMB3 says:

    And again, I think the marked improvement on D from 15/16 to 16/17 plays a pretty big role in the improvement in both GF and 5v5 P/60 sans McDavid. Healthy Klefbom, Sekera settling in, the acquisition of Adam Larsson and Matt Benning especially.

  91. Johnny says:

    I am going to return the favor and go ahead and question your reading comprehension abilities.

    1.And FWIW I think that the 5v5 scoring W/O McDavid should go up as a result of having him for an entire season because the W/O portion of the lineup isn’t playing against the other teams elite players, especially teams with great shut down pairings, as often as they would be sans-McDavid.

    We are comparing sans McDavid with sans McDavid. Need I explain this?

    2. 5v5 goals without McDavid
    2015/2016:1.79GF/60 = 147 EV goals
    2016/2017: 1.97GF/60 = 162 EV goals

    Need I explain this?

    3. And Hall didn’t primarily play with McDavid. I want to say not at all after the first couple of games. He spent a lot of 15/16 with Drai as his centre. If you think he primarily played with McDavid, that should point out some of the faults with the eye test right there.

    Re-read my post. I don’t even know what to say about that.

    Maybe let WG fight his own battles.

  92. GMB3 says:

    Johnny:
    I am going to return the favor and go ahead and question your reading comprehension abilities.

    1.And FWIW I think that the 5v5 scoring W/O McDavid should go up as a result of having him for an entire season because the W/O portion of the lineup isn’t playing against the other teams elite players, especially teams with great shut down pairings, as often as they would be sans-McDavid.

    We are comparing sans McDavid with sans McDavid.Need I explain this?

    2. 5v5 goals without McDavid
    2015/2016:1.79GF/60 = 147 EV goals
    2016/2017: 1.97GF/60 = 162 EV goals

    Need I explain this?

    3.And Hall didn’t primarily play with McDavid. I want to say not at all after the first couple of games. He spent a lot of 15/16 with Drai as his centre. If you think he primarily played with McDavid, that should point out some of the faults with the eye test right there.

    Re-read my post.I don’t even know what to say about that.

    Maybe let WG fight his own battles.

    Yeah I blew it reading your last post.

    I actually don’t understand how you can’t comprehend the first point you brought up. When Connor McDavid was injured, other players are batting further up the lineup and are asked to take on a larger role. So the first line is without its best player, and a lesser player is playing more against elite competition than they would normally be playing if Connor McDavid is healthy and in the lineup. Having McDavid in the lineup should create more favorable matchups for the other 3 lines.

    RNH only played 55 games the year prior, depleting our depth down the middle even more. Both guys played full seasons this year. RNH played 42% of his time against elite competition this year.

    I may not be doing a great job explaining this, but it seems pretty basic and that it should be easy to understand.

  93. Georges says:

    Everyone seems to have different 5v5 numbers. Here’s what I pieced together from David Johnson’s and Manny’s data on the Oilers improvement from 15-16 to 16-17.

    15-16

    5v5 metric, CMD on, CMD off

    TOI, 625, 3289
    GF, 35, 98
    GA, 34, 133
    +/-, +1, -35
    GF60, 3.36, 1.79
    GA60, 3.26, 2.43

    16-17

    5v5 metric, CMD on, CMD off

    TOI, 1298, 2696
    GF, 78, 87
    GA, 49, 90
    +/-, +29, -3
    GF60, 3.61, 1.94
    GA60, 2.26, 2.00

    The biggest reason for the year over year improvement is not that CMD played more. It’s because the team gave up 1 less goal per 60 when he was on the ice and they went from a -35 to a -3 when he was off the ice. Hard to look at those numbers and not see a dramatically better team. Unless you’re trying really hard to not see it.

  94. GMB3 says:

    Johnny:

    2. 5v5 goals without McDavid
    2015/2016:1.79GF/60 = 147 EV goals
    2016/2017: 1.97GF/60 = 162 EV goals

    Need I explain this?

    The Oilers only scored 133 goals at even strength in 15/16, and scored 165 in 16/17. This is the entire team. Not sans McDavid. So yeah, please explain this to me. Isn’t GF/60 without McDavid a function of how many goals were scored in every hour without McDavid? So unless McDavid played 0 games in 15/16 and 16/17, your math doesn’t check out.

    He outlines this in his post. I don’t even know what to say anymore.

  95. Johnny says:

    GMB3: Yeah I blew it reading your last post.

    I actually don’t understand how you can’t comprehend the first point you brought up. When Connor McDavid was injured, other players are batting further up the lineup and are asked to take on a larger role. So the first line is without its best player, and a lesser player is playing more against elite competition than they would normally be playing if Connor McDavid is healthy and in the lineup. Having McDavid in the lineup should create more favorable matchups for the other 3 lines.

    RNH only played 55 games the year prior, depleting our depth down the middle even more. Both guys played full seasons this year. RNH played 42% of his time against elite competition this year.

    I may not be doing a great job explaining this, but it seems pretty basic and that it should be easy to understand.

    Yeah, I get it now.

  96. frjohnk says:

    If one is looking at the increase in scoring with McDavid off the ice, its from the 3rd and 4th lines. 2nd line scoring actually dropped.

    McDavid and Hall played on the top two lines in 15-16 but did not play much together. ( 83 minutes)
    McDavid and RNH played on the top two lines in 16-17 but barely played together. ( 6 minutes)

    15-16
    McDavid 648 minutes GF60 3.42
    Hall 1283 minutes GF60 2.85

    Oilers with McDavid and Hall off the ice 2033 minutes GF60 1.18

    16-17
    McDavid 1310 minutes GF60 3.52
    RNH 1079 minutes GF60 1.95

    Oilers with McDavid and RNH off the ice 1603 minutes GF60 2.08

    Chia has done a fantastic job of getting actual NHL players in the bottom 6.

    -McDavid will do his thing
    – if the 3rd and 4th lines can replicate what they did in 16-17
    and
    -Drai can drive a line like Hall did ( I think he will)

    This is an elite team and should go far next spring.

  97. GMB3 says:

    frjohnk,

    Where do you get your numbers?

  98. GMB3 says:

    For those posters here that are more mathematically inclined than I am, is it far fetched to imagine that Lucic breaks 60 points if he plays on PP1 and his 5v5 offense recovers? I’m not sure what 10 more even strength points would do to his 5v5 P/60 #’

  99. Woodguy v2.0 says:

    Johnny,

    So let me get this straight…goal scoring increased equally 5×5 both w and w/o mcdavid and mcdavid is the ONLY reason goal scoring increased. Got it.

    Let me lay it out more clearly.

    Its mostly due to more McDavid time on ice.

    Oilers went from 199 goals for to 242, an improvement of 43 goals.

    Goal with McDavid on the ice went up 62 goals.

    Goals without McDavid went down 20 goals.

    Net improvement 42 goals due to McDavid getting more time on ice by playing the whole season.

  100. Woodguy v2.0 says:

    Johnny,

    In terms of how the rest of the team did, we need to use their TOI and goal rates from both years.

    Non-McDavid TOI in 16/17 = 2686
    Goal rate in 15/16 = 1.79
    Goal rate in 16/17 = 1.97
    Difference is 0.18
    0.18 x 2686 /60 = 8

    The non-McDavid Oilers improved goal rate translates to 8 5v5 goals if you account for TOI.

    Here’s the list of players who scored 5v5 goals with McDavid off the ice:

    RNH – 10
    Eberle – 8
    Pouliot – 8
    PItlick – 8
    Kassian – 6
    Klefbom – 5
    Lucic – 4
    Caggiula – 4
    Hendricks – 4
    Draisaitl – 3
    Nurse – 3
    Slepeshev – 3
    Larsson – 3
    Letestu – 2
    Pakarinen – 2
    Benning – 2
    Sekera – 1
    Gryba – 1
    Lander – 1
    Khaira – 1

  101. Woodguy v2.0 says:

    GMB3:
    For those posters here that are more mathematically inclined than I am, is it far fetched to imagine that Lucic breaks 60 points if he plays on PP1 and his 5v5 offense recovers? I’m not sure what 10 more even strength points would do to his 5v5 P/60 #’

    He had 23 pts in 1133 5v5 minutes last year for 1.21/60

    If he gets 33pts in 1133 5v5 minutes this year he’ll get 1.75.

    Probably not a bad target

  102. Woodguy v2.0 says:

    frjohnk:
    If one is looking at the increase in scoring with McDavid off the ice, its from the 3rd and 4th lines. 2nd line scoring actually dropped.

    McDavid and Hall played on the top two lines in 15-16 but did not play much together. ( 83 minutes)
    McDavid and RNH played on the top two lines in 16-17 but barely played together. ( 6 minutes)

    15-16
    McDavid 648 minutes GF60 3.42
    Hall 1283 minutes GF60 2.85

    Oilers with McDavid and Hall off the ice 2033 minutes GF60 1.18

    16-17
    McDavid 1310 minutes GF60 3.52
    RNH 1079 minutes GF60 1.95

    Oilers with McDavid and RNH off the ice 1603 minutes GF60 2.08

    Chia has done a fantastic job of getting actual NHL players in the bottom 6.

    -McDavid will do his thing
    – if the 3rd and 4th lines can replicate what they did in 16-17
    and
    -Drai can drive a line like Hall did ( I think he will)

    This is an elite team and should go far next spring.

    This is exactly it.

    A big part of the jump in scoring in the bottom 6 was Pitlick going off.

    Kassian was a big part of it too and should score more than 10 next year I think.

    I’m not sure if Pou’s goals were with RNH or not.

  103. Woodguy v2.0 says:

    frjohnk,

    Where are you getting your data?

  104. Johnny says:

    Georges:
    Everyone seems to have different 5v5 numbers. Here’s what I pieced together from David Johnson’s and Manny’s data on the Oilers improvement from 15-16 to 16-17.

    15-16

    5v5 metric, CMD on, CMD off

    TOI, 625, 3289
    GF, 35, 98
    GA, 34, 133
    +/-, +1, -35
    GF60, 3.36, 1.79
    GA60, 3.26, 2.43

    16-17

    5v5 metric, CMD on, CMD off

    TOI, 1298, 2696
    GF, 78, 87
    GA, 49, 90
    +/-, +29, -3
    GF60, 3.61, 1.94
    GA60, 2.26, 2.00

    The biggest reason for the year over year improvement is not that CMD played more. It’s because the team gave up 1 less goal per 60 when he was on the ice and they went from a -35 to a -3 when he was off the ice. Hard to look at those numbers and not see a dramatically better team. Unless you’re trying really hard to not see it.

    Totally agree.

    We are just focusing on increased goal scoring although it is obvious an improved defense (whether they get points or not) will contribute to more offense.

  105. Johnny says:

    GMB3: The Oilers only scored 133 goals at even strength in 15/16, and scored 165 in 16/17. This is the entire team. Not sans McDavid. So yeah, please explain this to me. Isn’t GF/60 without McDavid a function of how many goals were scored in every hour without McDavid? So unless McDavid played 0 games in 15/16 and 16/17, your math doesn’t check out.

    He outlines this in his post. I don’t even know what to say anymore.

    1.79 and 1.97 are rates.

    My point is/was that at those rates, the 15/16 would have scored 147 EV goals over the entire regular season had McDavid not played. The 16/17 team would have scored 162 EV goals had McDavid not played.

    Considering the 16/17 numbers include limited minutes from Draisaitl as well, think it is an uptick worth noting.

  106. Johnny says:

    Woodguy v2.0:
    Johnny,

    So let me get this straight…goal scoring increased equally 5×5 both w and w/o mcdavid and mcdavid is the ONLY reason goal scoring increased. Got it.

    Let me lay it out more clearly.

    Its mostly due to more McDavid time on ice.

    Oilers went from 199 goals for to 242, an improvement of 43 goals.

    Goal with McDavid on the ice went up 62 goals.

    Goals without McDavid went down 20 goals.

    Net improvement 42 goals due to McDavid getting more time on ice by playing the whole season.

    “Its mostly due to more McDavid time on ice.”

    I can live with comments like this. “The only reason” bolded and underlined was pretty strong and intended to undermine the work of GM. These are the reasons I “spin my narrative on your narrative” (thank you for that by the way lol).

    Your preferred number for evaluating T Hall is a rate (/60…we know why) but in this case you are just looking at actual totals.

    Since both w and w/o McD increased in 16/17, I think its worthwhile to look at how many EV goals would have been scored if McD played the entire 2015 season based on those rates:

    2015/2016 – 1309 / 60 * 3.36 = 73 goals with McD
    2015/2016 – 2686 / 60 * 1.79 = 80 goals w/o McD
    Hypothetical EV goals in 2015/2016 sans McD injury = 153

    2016/2017 EV strength goals = 165

    They scored more effectively 5×5 in 2016/2017 both with and without McDavid. He is NOT the only reason scoring increased, and NJ’s decrease in scoring reinforces the point that defense is critical to offense beyond metrics the public has available.

  107. Johnny says:

    Woodguy v2.0:
    Johnny,

    In terms of how the rest of the team did, we need to use their TOI and goal rates from both years.

    Non-McDavid TOI in 16/17 = 2686
    Goal rate in 15/16 = 1.79
    Goal rate in 16/17 = 1.97
    Difference is 0.18
    0.18 x 2686 /60 = 8

    The non-McDavid Oilers improved goal rate translates to 8 5v5 goals if you account for TOI.

    Here’s the list of players who scored 5v5 goals with McDavid off the ice:

    RNH – 10
    Eberle – 8
    Pouliot – 8
    PItlick – 8
    Kassian – 6
    Klefbom – 5
    Lucic – 4
    Caggiula – 4
    Hendricks – 4
    Draisaitl – 3
    Nurse – 3
    Slepeshev – 3
    Larsson – 3
    Letestu – 2
    Pakarinen – 2
    Benning – 2
    Sekera – 1
    Gryba – 1
    Lander – 1
    Khaira – 1

    I hope you are not worried about how they will replace the Eberle, Pouliot and Pitlick production.

    The TEAM will easily pick up that slack.

  108. Woodguy v2.0 says:

    Johnny: I hope you are not worried about how they will replace the Eberle, Pouliot and Pitlick production.

    The TEAM will easily pick up that slack.

    I think running 29 at 2C and 93 at 3C will increase secondary scoring, but its not a slam dunk that everyone improves either.

    Lots of “ifs” and “hopes” but I think they will improve away from McDavid.

    I have the Oilers 2nd behind ANA in the Pacific, but its very close with LAK and CGY.

  109. Woodguy v2.0 says:

    Johnny,

    “Its mostly due to more McDavid time on ice.”
    I can live with comments like this. “The only reason” bolded and underlined was pretty strong and intended to undermine the work of GM. These are the reasons I “spin my narrative on your narrative” (thank you for that by the way lol).

    Let me quote directly from my post on my blog:

    There is no doubt that the single largest factor in the Oilers goal increase was Connor McDavid playing 82 games.

    This is the 2nd last paragraph/sentence in the piece. I was pretty clear about this in the post.

    Here’s the last paragraph:

    McDavid’s increased time on ice from 15/16 to 16/17 had such a large impact that if you made an argument that it was the only reason the Oilers’ goal total improved and I’d be hard pressed to argue against it. note: “the only reason” is underlined.

    I concede that the non-McDavid Oilers would have improved by 8 goals for if non-McDavid TOI was equal from year to year. That data is right in my post.

    The fact that McDavid on ice improved by 62 goals is overwhelming though.

  110. frjohnk says:

    Woodguy v2.0,

    naturalstattrick

  111. Woodguy v2.0 says:

    frjohnk:
    Woodguy v2.0,

    naturalstattrick

    thanks

  112. frjohnk says:

    Going through some more numbers

    in 15-16, with McDavid and Hall off the ice, the team (which is basically the 3rd and 4th lines) had a
    GF60 1.18
    GA60 2.41

    in 16-17, with McDavid and RNH off the ice, the team (which is basically the 3rd and 4th lines)had a
    GF60 2.02 ( earlier number of 2.08 was wrong)
    GA60 1.98

    Letestu is a good example on how the depth has improved.

    In 15-16, because of all the injuries and lack of depth to replace those injured players, he played 903 minutes at 5 on 5. This was 4th highest for forwards in TOI. His on ice GF60 was 1.2. GA60 was 2.59.

    In 16-17, with less injuries and better depth, he played 725 minutes at 5 on 5 in just 4 less games. This was 9th highest for forwards. His on ice GF60 was 2.07. GA60 was 2.07.

    In 15-16, he had at times had to play higher up the depth chart, with not so good as linemates as the next year.
    In 16-17, he was basically a 4th line center and with better linemates and did a pretty decent job.

    Depth, its a think

  113. Kinger_Oil.redux says:

    frjohnk:
    Going through some more numbers

    in 15-16, with McDavid and Hall off the ice, the team (which is basically the 3rd and 4th lines) had a
    GF60 1.18
    GA60 2.41

    in 16-17, with McDavid and RNH off the ice, the team(which is basically the 3rd and 4th lines)had a
    GF60 2.02 ( earlier number of 2.08 was wrong)
    GA60 1.98

    – Thanks for this. Georges expressed the same info roughly as well (using actual goals).

    – We can’t ignore the significant reduction in GA, without our best players on the ice YoY

    – A healthy Klef helped, as did Russel and Larsson. That’s 3 bonafide top-4 D

    – How much you want to attribute this to Chia depends on our biases

  114. Woodguy v2.0 says:

    frjohnk:
    Going through some more numbers

    in 15-16, with McDavid and Hall off the ice, the team (which is basically the 3rd and 4th lines) had a
    GF60 1.18
    GA60 2.41

    in 16-17, with McDavid and RNH off the ice, the team(which is basically the 3rd and 4th lines)had a
    GF60 2.02 ( earlier number of 2.08 was wrong)
    GA60 1.98

    Letestu is a good example on how the depth has improved.

    In 15-16, because of all the injuries and lack of depth to replace those injured players, he played 903 minutes at 5 on 5.This was 4th highest for forwards in TOI.His on ice GF60 was 1.2.GA60 was 2.59.

    In 16-17, with less injuries and better depth, he played 725 minutes at 5 on 5 in just 4 less games.This was 9th highest for forwards. His on ice GF60 was 2.07.GA60 was 2.07.

    In 15-16, he had at times had to play higher up the depth chart, with not so good as linemates as the next year.
    In 16-17, he was basically a 4th line center and with better linemates and did a pretty decent job.

    Depth, its a think

    Yup,

    I posted this April 7th on twitter.

    Showing players via total TOI from one year to the next.

    The improvement was substantial.

    https://twitter.com/Woodguy55/status/850467094047055872

  115. frjohnk says:

    Kinger_Oil.redux: – How much you want to attribute this to Chia depends on our biases

    Chia and health are the biggest reasons.

  116. frjohnk says:

    Woodguy v2.0: Yup,

    I posted this April 7th on twitter.

    Showing players via total TOI from one year to the next.

    The improvement was substantial.

    https://twitter.com/Woodguy55/status/850467094047055872

    Good stuff

  117. GMB3 says:

    Johnny: 1.79 and 1.97 are rates.

    My point is/was that at those rates, the 15/16 would have scored 147 EV goals over the entire regular season had McDavid not played.The 16/17 team would have scored 162 EV goals had McDavid not played.

    Considering the 16/17 numbers include limited minutes from Draisaitl as well,think it is an uptick worth noting.

    They didn’t score than many goals including McDavid time on ice. I think I understand what you’re thing to do but I’ve never seen it described that way and it doesn’t really make sense.

  118. GMB3 says:

    frjohnk:
    Going through some more numbers

    in 15-16, with McDavid and Hall off the ice, the team (which is basically the 3rd and 4th lines) had a
    GF60 1.18
    GA60 2.41

    in 16-17, with McDavid and RNH off the ice, the team(which is basically the 3rd and 4th lines)had a
    GF60 2.02 ( earlier number of 2.08 was wrong)
    GA60 1.98

    Letestu is a good example on how the depth has improved.

    In 15-16, because of all the injuries and lack of depth to replace those injured players, he played 903 minutes at 5 on 5.This was 4th highest for forwards in TOI.His on ice GF60 was 1.2.GA60 was 2.59.

    In 16-17, with less injuries and better depth, he played 725 minutes at 5 on 5 in just 4 less games.This was 9th highest for forwards. His on ice GF60 was 2.07.GA60 was 2.07.

    In 15-16, he had at times had to play higher up the depth chart, with not so good as linemates as the next year.
    In 16-17, he was basically a 4th line center and with better linemates and did a pretty decent job.

    Depth, its a think

    Good stuff. You did a much better job of explaining what I was trying too earlier in this thread.

  119. Lewis Grant says:

    Woodguy v2.0: Here’s the list of players who scored 5v5 goals with McDavid off the ice:
    RNH – 10
    Eberle – 8
    Pouliot – 8
    PItlick – 8
    Kassian – 6
    Klefbom – 5
    Lucic – 4
    Caggiula – 4
    Hendricks – 4
    Draisaitl – 3
    Nurse – 3
    Slepeshev – 3
    Larsson – 3
    Letestu – 2
    Pakarinen – 2
    Benning – 2
    Sekera – 1
    Gryba – 1
    Lander – 1
    Khaira – 1

    Hmm, we just lost Eberle, Pouliot and Pitlick. That’s 40% of the forward goals right there.

    I guess we are hoping for Strome, Jokinen, and Puljujarvi (?) to pick up the slack? Emphasis on hope?

Leave a Reply

Want to join the discussion?
Feel free to contribute!
© Copyright - Lowetide.ca