TAKE IT TO THE LIMIT

I have the Oilers with 100 points in 2017-18, Connor McDavid winning another scoring championship and the team continuing the struggle to find secondary scoring. We’ll find out all down the line, every season writes its own script. Still building toward the team they will become, this Oilers club looks ready to cut through the heart of the Pacific Division one more time.

RE PROJECTIONS 2017-18

  • I have the Oilers increasing their goals-for almost entirely due to McDavid’s stretching out his offensive potential.
  • Defensively the club gives up 10 more goals than one year ago, I think the defense may give up more chances and the goaltending will see more backup presence. Still good, but a little wobble.

OILERS RE SCORING 2017-18

  • These are all the original numbers I projected, but the lines have moved to match the words of Peter Chiarelli and Todd McLellan in their conversations with Bob McKenzie and Bob Stauffer, respectively.
  • If Leon plays 2C, I’d give him 62-65 points, Strome as 1R probably gets to 50. It really depends who plays on the top two lines, how tough the competition for the 3line and of course who gets the PP push.
  • I have 15 defensemen playing, if someone emerges from  the group that is listed under ‘extra defense’ we could see many fewer. Never encouraging when you begin a year with one of your inner circle blue on the injured list.

TRADE DEADLINE

I believe Peter Chiarelli will be very active at this year’s trade deadline if Edmonton is in a playoff position. You’ll hear people say ‘deadline deals don’t help’ but adding to shore up areas of weakness is something general managers do at the deadline. Pittsburgh added Ron Hainsey, Mark Streit and Frank Corrado at the 2017 deadline, Justin Schultz in 2016. Peter Chiarelli is extremely aggressive and he has areas of need (scoring RW, veteran defense, possibly backup goalie) that he is currently addressing with the department of youth.

ASSETS OUT, FEBRUARY 26 2018

The trade deadline this season is February 26 according to Renaud Lavoie and he’s never wrong. Here are the current potential assets Chiarelli could move:

  • The 2018 draft picks. NHL teams don’t like trading picks for 11.5 months a year, and then spend them like drunken sailors at the deadline. Edmonton’s 2018 draft picks are No. 22, No. 53, No. 84, No. 115, No. 146, No. 177, No. 208. The numbers will change, important to note Edmonton currently holds all seven of their own selections. I think each is in play.
  • LHD prospects. The Oilers are well covered at the NHL level, with Oscar Klefbom, Andrej Sekera and Darnell Nurse firmly entrenched at this time. Oilers may have enough depth to deal from strength to address weakness. I wonder what happens re: Yohann Auvitu. If the man from France has a strong season, could you see the Oilers move Andrej Sekera next summer in an effort to keep Ryan Nugent-Hopkins? I believe it’s worth keeping in mind. The two NHL regulars not bound by NMC’s are Darnell Nurse and Matt Benning, I don’t see either of them being dealt.
  • Young wingers who don’t succeed in a big way Anton Slepyshev is in a good spot but his injury may give others a chance at his perceived role. If he can find a spot on Leon Draisaitl’s line (with Milan Lucic), we may see a 20-goal scorer. If the Oilers give Drake Caggiula a feature slot, we may see Slepyshev dealt at the deadline (my guess is the Russian has more value than Caggiula among NHL teams who are interested in Edmonton’s winger collection). Jujhar Khaira is also in this category, on a lower level. This is the year for these men to emerge, if they don’t I expect a trade could occur at the deadline.
  • Odds and sods. Laurent Brossoit, Nick Ellis, Joey Laleggia, Dillon Simpson, you never know who will get dealt at a trade deadline. The Oilers have so many LHD (still) that’s probably a good guess.

ROOKIES 2017-18

Laurent Brossoit qualifies as a rookie (I believe, the NHL may have changed the rules when I wasn’t looking) and he’s the only Calder eligible player who should be with the big club all year. Kailer Yamamoto might get nine games, but I’m not projecting it and it’s unlikely at this point (things change). Dillon Simpson? Keegan Lowe? Joe Gambardella? It’s an interesting question: Which current Oilers rookie roster player has the best chance of having an impact in the NHL this season?

CAMP INVITES

Dennis Wideman still out there? I think it’s possible we see an addition on defense but Peter Chiarelli and Todd McLellan may want to wade into the exhibition schedule to see how things rhyme. Also, call me stubborn, but the Vegas Golden Knights have a bunch of defensemen and I can see Griffin Reinhart or Jason Garrison here by opening night.

LOWDOWN WITH LOWETIDE

A fun and packed show today, we’re drunk with guests! 10 this morning, TSN1260. Scheduled to appear:

  • Darcy McLeod, Because Oilers. Who wins the JP/Cagg/Slepy battle, 5×5 by Lucic, rookies.
  • Ryan Pike, Flames Nation. The Flames want an arena and are negotiating in the public forum.
  • Andy McNamara, TSN. Alouettes make big changes, NFL Week Two just around the corner.
  • Steve Kournianos, The Draft Analyst. Bob McKenzie’s 2018 pre-season list is out today, we’ll get an early line on the draft.

10-1260 text, @Lowetide on twitter.

written by

The author didn‘t add any Information to his profile yet.
Related Posts

93 Responses to "TAKE IT TO THE LIMIT"

  1. OriginalPouzar says:

    I’m still amazed at the year over year goal differential improvement last season – 70 plus spike – that was awesome.

    Its also amazing that it is absolutely reasonable to expect McDavid’s points to increase this year – natural progression of course and the verbal re: him working on his shot. The main place I see the increase is actually on the PP as McDavid wasn’t as good on the PP as he was in other areas of the offence. I can’t imagine he won’t be an elite PP performed very soon.

  2. OriginalPouzar says:

    “If Leon plays 2C, I’d give him 62-65 points, Strome as 1R probably gets to 50.” –

    I’m not sure if Leon will be quite that low if he’s the full time 2C but I guess its definitely possible – I think he’s a more significant offensive player, even if he’s the main offensive piece on the line – the driver – time will tell.

    With that said, I think we all know that his time will be split between 2C and 1RW – I truly hope there is more time at 2C as that likely means things are going well.

    I also truly hope that if he plays 2C 80% of the time and the is on a 65 point pace the fanbase gehnerally won’t be turning on the 21/22 year old for not living up to the 1st year of his 8 year contract even though the team is winning.

  3. OriginalPouzar says:

    I really hope that we don’t need 15 d-men this year as that runs through the Keegan Lowe part of the depth chart an it to the Bear, Jones, Paigin part of the depth chart and I don’t want to go there.

    Definitely possible and this is a reason why I was hoping we could add another guy like Franson.

  4. OriginalPouzar says:

    I’ve got to assume that the team will be in the conversation come the deadline but will also have some deficiencies so, yes, very well may be active at the deadline.

    I’ve been remiss to trade away the standard deadline currency, draft picks, due to the need for a consistent stable of prospects to give us a good shot at being able to add an internal value contract to the roster each and every year.

    With that said, given the talent added to our forward prospect pool and their recent performances – I think Safin and Maksimov give us a good shot a few years down the road and if Benson can play a full season this year without additional material injury, I will feel better about trading a 2018 draft pick or two.

  5. Jaxon says:

    I still see Cody Franson, Alex Chiasson and Jimmy Hayes as possible signings.

  6. Lowetide says:

    Jaxon:
    I still see Cody Franson, Alex Chiasson and Jimmy Hayes as possible signings.

    Absolutely possible. I’ve mentioned Franson’s name so often people are suggesting we’re related but for me he makes complete sense on a one-year deal.

  7. Jaxon says:

    Calder candidates may come from injury. If Nurse or Klefbom gets injured I could see Paigin getting the nod and he could show well (look at Zaitsev last season). If Benning or Larsson get injured I could see Bear getting a chance to see if he can stick (JD Burke recently made a pretty strong argument for Bear having a chance over at Oilersnation). LW injuries to Lucic, Maroon, Jokinen or Caggiula could see LaLeggia getting the call his NHLe of 20 goals after his move to LW is pretty substantial if they’re looking for scoring. If there is a Talbot injury will we be seeing Brossoit/Ellis tandem before pulling the trigger on a trade?

  8. Jaxon says:

    Lowetide: Absolutely possible. I’ve mentioned Franson’s name so often people are suggesting we’re related but for me he makes complete sense on a one-year deal.

    Yup, and last fall 5 of 12 players who signed a contract after a PTO, signed with a different team.

  9. Dino says:

    RE: secondary scoring

    It’s funny because as much as the team improved last year both offensively and defensively, there are still some key players in key positions that underachieved.

    If Lucic can go back to scoring how he usually does 5v5 and Nuge can post a 50+ point campaign, there’s your secondary scoring right there. Last season if those two and Eberle and Pouliot had produced more consistently through the regular season and playoffs I think we would be talking about a different outcome altogether.

    If the underachievers can play to their potential then the depth will be a strength this season.

  10. OriginalPouzar says:

    If we are moving a LHD with an NMC to make room for Nuge, why is Sekera always proposed and not Russell? Is it because we think Sekera would waive and not Russell?

    I think Sekera is >>>> Russell at $1.25M more.

  11. Nuclear leak says:

    pretty positive the rules in place mean Griffin can’t be acquired by Edmonton.

  12. OriginalPouzar says:

    Jaxon:
    Calder candidates may come from injury. If Nurse or Klefbom gets injured I could see Paigin getting the nod and he could show well (look at Zaitsev last season). If Benning or Larsson get injured I could see Bear getting a chance to see if he can stick (JD Burke recently made a pretty strong argument for Bear having a chance over at Oilersnation). LW injuries to Lucic, Maroon, Jokinen or Caggiula could see LaLeggia getting the call his NHLe of 20 goals after his move to LW is pretty substantial if they’re looking for scoring. If there is a Talbot injury will we be seeing Brossoit/Ellis tandem before pulling the trigger on a trade?

    I don’t see any of Paigin, Bear or Jones playing over the likes of Simpson, Fayne, Auvitu, Stanton, Lowe.

    From the prospects:

    – Bear has much work to do away from the puck and from his redline in – he had wobble in a prospects games and issues in his own zone. He was better in his 2nd game than his 1st game but still, I can’t imagine he will be ready for NHL games this year.

    – Paigin has that booming shot and a good skill set but he got walked a number of times in the tourney. I know the verbal is he’s closest due to his KHL time and apparently he was steadier in his short stint in Bakersfield last year, but it looks like he’s got some consistency issues – if he’s getting walked at the prospects tournament, I can’t imagine he’ll be ready for the NHL.

    – Jones, he was the steadiest of them all and his skating likely puts him at the top of this list

    I think some expectations on these 3 d-man are unrealistic – two are coming straight from the CHL – its very rare for 3rd-5th round pedigree d-men to jump straight to the NHL even with a spike in their play post-draft.

  13. Chachi says:

    Nuclear leak:
    pretty positive the rules in place mean Griffin can’t be acquired by Edmonton.

    I am absolutely positive he can. There aren’t any rules prohibiting Vegas from trading a player they chose back to the team they chose him from. There are also no rules prohibiting Vegas from placing a player they chose on waivers. The only prohibition placed on Vegas is that they can’t buy out a player they selected until summer 2018.

    https://www.nhl.com/news/nhl-expansion-draft-rules/c-281010592

  14. OriginalPouzar says:

    Nuclear leak:
    pretty positive the rules in place mean Griffin can’t be acquired by Edmonton.

    I’m not sure this is true – are you mixing it up with the rules re: acquiring an RFA via an offer sheet that isn’t matched?

  15. jtblack says:

    Forward group looks rock solid to me .. You only have 1 rookie in the Top 12 … Think we will get scoring from all lines and have a Top 3 PP (I think it will be #1) ….

    The defense just doesn’t sit right with me … not yet … If Benning is equal or better than last year, and him and Larsson are healthy, I guess it will be OK … An injury to him or Larsson and the RD is awfully weak …

    I agree that PC will go all in at the deadline … Hopefully he doesn’t mortgage too much of the future, but we will see …

    Skill and talent matter for sure, but the one thing that can’t be taught is DRIVE and DETERMINATION. Connor seems hard wired as the ultimate competitor .. This bodes well for Oiler Nation …

    Great stuff LT. Can’t wait for main camp!!!!!

  16. LoDog says:

    Has there been any discussion about what PC said in his interview with BM about the Leon contract?

    BM asked if maybe he should have signed Leon first and did the contract for McDavid affect Leon?

    With an uncomfortable smile PC said they had been trying to sign Leon for quite some time.

    Sounds like the Oilers had been trying to sign him for a long time and the young man bet on himself to put up the numbers last year to get a better contract.

  17. John Chambers says:

    LoDog,

    The way you frame Drai’s contract situation makes a lot of sense.

    It was pretty clear by January last year that Draisaitl was a legit offensive driver and deserving of an Austin contract. Before the playoffs began I’m sure there was an offer from the Oilers long-term in the $6-$7M range.

    Young Leon’s playoff earned him an extra $16 million!

  18. blainer says:

    Lowetide: Absolutely possible. I’ve mentioned Franson’s name so often people are suggesting we’re related but for me he makes complete sense on a one-year deal.

    I wonder if Chia decided against the PTO for Franson where Gryba seemed to have put a tremendous amount of work in on his skating over the summer.

    Would not be surprised if Gryba asked Chia to hang on and give him a chance to show the fruits of his labor..

    If Gryba doesn’t show well at camp I can defiantly see a contract offer to Franson.

    Competition is amazing this year. At every position.

    CMD changed everything. What a season we are about to experience as fans !!

  19. jtblack says:

    Random Question: Could the Oilers sign Franson right now even though he signed a PTO with Chicago? I’m guessing yes, but not 100% sure

  20. Bank Shot says:

    If Shea Theodore forces his way onto the team in Vegas, someone may shake loose there.

    Pretty much all of their D are on expiring contracts.

    Oilers may be able to pick up a warm body from them for a pittance.

    Reinhart for a 7th? haha

  21. Bank Shot says:

    jtblack:
    Random Question:Could the Oilers sign Franson right now even though he signed a PTO with Chicago?I’m guessing yes, but not 100% sure

    Yes. Versteeg went to Calgary whole on a PTO with Edmonton.

  22. jtblack says:

    Bank Shot,

    Thanks for the PTO answer …. Theodore is a lock for Vegas IMO … If Griffin comes back here, it’s desperation by the Oilers to try and repair their “mistake” ….. It’s better for Griffin to be in Vegas .. bringing him back here would only add unneeded pressure on him …

  23. geowal says:

    OriginalPouzar:
    If we are moving a LHD with an NMC to make room for Nuge, why is Sekera always proposed and not Russell? Is it because we think Sekera would waive and not Russell?

    I think Sekera is >>>> Russell at $1.25M more.

    It’s because we’ve accustomed to the love the org has for Russell and don’t quite see that shown for Sekera.

  24. digger50 says:

    Taking advantage of Vegas would be a wise move by Edmonton.

    Theodore for a third rounder would be a bargain. Stealing Griff back not a bad idea either.

  25. OriginalPouzar says:

    blainer: I wonder if Chia decided against the PTO for Franson where Gryba seemed to have put a tremendous amount of work in on his skating over the summer.

    Would not be surprised if Gryba asked Chia to hang on and give him a chance to show the fruits of his labor..

    If Gryba doesn’t show well at camp I can defiantly see a contract offer to Franson.

    Competition is amazing this year. At every position.

    CMD changed everything. What a season we are about to experience as fans !!

    My guess is that Franson has the hand-shake deal for a contract with the Hawks but they need to wait until they get Hossa on LTIR.

  26. Professor Q says:

    Bank Shot: Yes. Versteeg went to Calgary whole on a PTO with Edmonton.

    Technically it was after camp and while Edmonton was trying to sign him for the season, so he wasn’t on the PTO anymore I believe.

  27. Georges says:

    LT:

    – sv% last year was .914 (or .915) not .917

    – if you’re projecting the percentage to drop, then you’ll want something lower than .914, not greater

    – if you’re projecting GA at 217 and sv% at .916, then SA/GP will be 31.5 compared to 29.5 last season

    – that means you’re projecting our defense to go from top 1/3 in the league to bottom 1/3 in the league as measured by shots allowed

    – points are very strongly positively correlated to goal differential (something like r=0.97 last season)

    – if you see an uptick of 4 in goal differential with a drop of 3 in points, you’re going against the direction of a very strong correlation

  28. Clay says:

    Totally off topic, but the weeping and gnashing of teeth in YYC right now is real and it is spectacular. The Fan 960 had Spector on this morning trying to talk everyone off the ledge. When Mark Spector is the voice of reason and sanity, you know shit has gone sideways.

    Schadenfreude for the win, Alex.

  29. anjinsan says:

    Gotta get me some of that Reinhart, eh LT? — thou art daft.

    Yeah, bring him back and then fleece someone of their #16 and #33 picks in trade next year at the draft.

    Also, Puljujarvi will not lack for offense.

  30. jtblack says:

    Clay,

    The Ken King stuff is just posturing … no different than when Katz and his boyz flew to Seattle … King just went public with his frustration and to throw water on the Mayor’s re election bid ….

  31. McSorley33 says:

    OriginalPouzar,

    – Paigin has that booming shot and a good skill set but he got walked a number of times in the tourney. I know the verbal is he’s closest due to his KHL time and apparently he was steadier in his short stint in Bakersfield last year, but it looks like he’s got some consistency issues – if he’s getting walked at the prospects tournament, I can’t imagine he’ll be ready for the NHL.
    *******************************************************************************
    X 1, 000 – if he was not getting walked he was backing up into his his own goal crease. I love the kid as a prospect but he needs to be in the Bake for a couple of seasons. Let him learn the NA game and see if he can pick up the pace and the speed..

    Same with Ryan Mantha – zero curiosity as to why the Rangers let him go.

    David Musil looks agile compared to Ryan.

    Edit – the quality of prospects at this tourney was not good. The jets barely bothered. Flames prospects were lucky to get into double digits for shots against a Winnipeg.

    Ugly.

  32. Doug McLachlan says:

    jtblack:
    Bank Shot,

    Thanks for the PTO answer ….Theodore is a lock for Vegas IMO … If Griffin comes back here, it’s desperation by the Oilers to try and repair their “mistake” ….. It’s better for Griffin to be in Vegas .. bringing him back here would only add unneeded pressure on him …

    I suspect that the Oilers (and others) are seeing what might shake loose on a few teams at defense based on numbers and number$.

    Chia has been on the opposite side of this problem when he gave away Boychuk for a song to the Islanders. Don’t think he isn’t sniffing around Detroit’s cap-crunch issues with AA yet to sign might RHD Sproul become available? What does Dallas do if Honka makes the team?

    I’m sure LT will have a brilliant article setting out the options to watch for in the next couple of weeks. The Oilers have over $8.3M in cap space. Even were they all the reasonably achievable bonuses, they have some financial flexibility this year.

    On the flip side, when would Colorado like to get some defensemen? Only 3 NHL d-men under contract – insane.

  33. Optimism is like heroin says:

    I personally would also like to see Connor take a few extra shifts a game on the 4th line. Letestu has said he is better in the pp and pk with less 5×5 time and getting McDavid out vs gritensity level players is a good idea in my opinion.

  34. Chachi says:

    Clay:
    Totally off topic, but the weeping and gnashing of teeth in YYC right now is real and it is spectacular.The Fan 960 had Spector on this morning trying to talk everyone off the ledge.When Mark Spector is the voice of reason and sanity, you know shit has gone sideways.

    Schadenfreude for the win, Alex.

    What amuses me is that the supposed sophisticates in Calgary are falling for the exact same machinations Katz and Bettman used in supposedly blue-collar rube-filled Edmonton. The constant mockery that was coming out of Calgary at the time the Oilers and the NHL were putting the squeeze on the City of Edmonton was deafening.

    What’s even worse is that the City of Calgary’s plan for a new arena appears to be to have the Province and Country pay for it so that Calgary can host yet another Olympics. As much as I was not thrilled with my tax dollars going towards building the arena here in Edmonton, I will be incandescent with rage when my tax dollars are yet again sprayed like diarrhea across the City of Calgary so that they can once again squander billions of tax dollars to do a second rate job of hosting a second tier Olympics.

  35. Professor Q says:

    Chachi: I am absolutely positive he can. There aren’t any rules prohibiting Vegas from trading a player they chose back to the team they chose him from. There are also no rules prohibiting Vegas from placing a player they chose on waivers. The only prohibition placed on Vegas is that they can’t buy out a player they selected until summer 2018.

    https://www.nhl.com/news/nhl-expansion-draft-rules/c-281010592

    I think they had a rule in place at first which meant rhey couldn’t trade players selected back to their team immediately, either/or tied into the one where they couldn’t accept trades before the draft to either select or not select certain players, but technicalities were put in place to make these moot.

    It was complicated and changed quite a bit.

  36. OriginalPouzar says:

    As per Stauffer:

    Oilers projected lines vs NAIT/MacEwan:
    Gambardella-Butcher-Yamamoto,
    Maksimov-Bauer-Safin,
    Polei-Koch-Spyzula,
    Pawlenchuk-Glover-F-Wolansky

    Those first two lines – I can’t wait – salivating!’

    Also want to see Polei have a good game.

  37. Chachi says:

    McSorley33: Same with Ryan Mantha – zero curiosity as to why the Rangers let him go.

    There’s some mixed messages out there, but according to this story the Rangers offered Mantha a contract and he rejected it:
    http://www.wellandtribune.ca/2017/03/01/edmonton-oilers-sign-niagara-icedogs-captain-ryan-mantha-to-three-year-entry-level-deal

  38. Georges says:

    OriginalPouzar:
    If we are moving a LHD with an NMC to make room for Nuge, why is Sekera always proposed and not Russell? Is it because we think Sekera would waive and not Russell?

    I think Sekera is >>>> Russell at $1.25M more.

    Wow. That’s much much much greater than. I have a hard time with Sekera = Russell at $1.25M more.

    According to David Johnson’s 5v5 data,

    In 15-16, the team went:

    Sekera On
    GF 43
    GA 57
    GF% 43

    Sekera Off
    GF 90
    GA 110
    GF% 45

    And, according to Manny’s 5v5 data,

    In 16-17, the team went:

    Sekera ON
    GF 48
    GA 37
    GF% 56

    Sekera Off
    GF 117
    GA 102
    GF% 53

    In 15-16, Fayne (and the rest of the team) took the hit.

    In 16-17, Sekera got the credit and Russell got the passable 5/6 defenseman label.

    If Sekera is so much better than Russell, who still plays in the NHL, why wasn’t he so much better than Fayne, who doesn’t?

    (NST has different numbers but the same pattern.)

  39. OriginalPouzar says:

    D as I anticipated:

    Oilers D/G tonight:

    Jones-Bear
    Lagesson-Mantha
    Paigin-Samorukov

    All 6 D signed!

    Wells
    Skinner

  40. Chachi says:

    Professor Q: I think they had a rule in place at first which meant rhey couldn’t trade players selected back to their team immediately, either/or tied into the one where they couldn’t accept trades before the draft to either select or not select certain players, but technicalities were put in place to make these moot.

    It was complicated and changed quite a bit.

    Yeah, there may have been something like that at the beginning of the process. If the idea of the expansion draft was to help Vegas get a good start in the NHL it would make no sense to prevent them from doing whatever they want with the players they select including trading players back to the team they selected them from for a return Vegas feels better serves their team. It looks like common sense won out in the end for a change.

  41. OriginalPouzar says:

    Optimism is like heroin:
    I personally would also like to see Connor take a few extra shifts a game on the 4th line.Letestu has said he is better in the pp and pk with less 5×5 time and getting McDavid out vs gritensity level players is a good idea in my opinion.

    Maybe but I’m cognizant of his icetime.

    I think he led the league in ES ice for forwards last year and I presume he’ll do the same this year.

    If extra ice is coming, I think I’d prefer it on the PK – with more open ice out there, I believe he is a weapon on the PK and actually provides a concern for the opposition.

    I love seeing him on the PK, and we might need him there, but an extra 90 seconds a game adds up throughout the year.

    I’m torn.

  42. russ99 says:

    Leon’s numbers at 2C vary depending on who’s on the line with him.

    He’s gotten a lions share of his quality shots as the trailer when with McDavid and Hall, so I’m not sure if he’s the best player to carry the puck in and take on the initial effort defensively.

    With Lucic as the down low and cycle presence, he needs either a dynamic shooter or someone who’s good on the puck on his right wing.

    Eventually the best fit looks to be Strome (when we acquire that scoring RW), but Caggiula or Slepyshev could work too.

  43. Optimism is like heroin says:

    OriginalPouzar,

    IMO opinion … we have other folks that can pk, and I dont want to see McDavid go down to an injury from shot blocking. Now he didn’t quite lead all forwards in TOI but was just 20 seconds away from the leader O’Reilly. McDavid also had a GF/60 of 4.3 against grit level opponents which is almost PP levels of scoring.

  44. russ99 says:

    OriginalPouzar:
    If we are moving a LHD with an NMC to make room for Nuge, why is Sekera always proposed and not Russell? Is it because we think Sekera would waive and not Russell?

    I think Sekera is >>>> Russell at $1.25M more.

    Because the organization places a value on shot quality reduction and most of the advanced stats do not. It’s not all about goals for.

    I think both are staying next year and Chiarelli’s Nuge comments are to spur on the player and not publicly trash an asset he wants to move. Unlike MacTavish.

  45. jm363561 says:

    Georges:
    LT:

    – sv% last year was .914 (or .915) not .917

    – if you’re projecting the percentage to drop, then you’ll want something lower than .914, not greater

    – if you’re projecting GA at 217 and sv% at .916, then SA/GP will be 31.5 compared to 29.5 last season

    – that means you’re projecting our defense to go from top 1/3 in the league to bottom 1/3 in the league as measured by shots allowed

    – points are very strongly positively correlated to goal differential (something like r=0.97 last season)

    – if you see an uptick of 4 in goal differential with a drop of 3 in points, you’re going against the direction of a very strong correlation

    Yep, a trés bon point (I am sitting in Paris Charles de Gaulle airport, not Montreal!). I am always amazed anyone takes any notice of Corsi, goal difference is almost perfectly aligned to position in the standings – just look at the end of season tables.

    Was just reading that the Oil are one of the top 3 SC bets (along with Pittsburgh and Chicago). Under normal circumstances I would have a sense of impending doom but this is a tight, well led, resilient team and I am quietly hopeful my 93 Death March points are way too conservative. Intangibles matter.

  46. hunter1909 says:

    Hunter1909’s Oilers Death March! Everyone/Anyone welcome to enter

    Returns for another season!

    Bigger and better than ever!

    Here’s how to play: SIMPLY enter the amount of points you expect the Edmonton Oilers to get during the 2017-18 season;

    At the end of the season the player(s) with the closest total wins!

    It’s easy!!

    contest open until the opening puck drop of the 2017-18 season

  47. LoDog says:

    hunter1909,

    105 please Hunter.

  48. Optimism is like heroin says:

    hunter1909,

    101 for me please Hunter.

  49. McNuge93 says:

    russ99: Because the organization places a value on shot quality reduction and most of the advanced stats do not. It’s not all about goals for.

    I think both are staying next year and Chiarelli’s Nuge comments are to spur on the player and not publicly trash an asset he wants to move. Unlike MacTavish.

    Is MacTavish an asset we want to move? 🙂

  50. Lowetide says:

    anjinsan:
    Gotta get me some of that Reinhart, eh LT? — thou art daft.

    Yeah, bring him back and then fleece someone of their #16 and #33 picks in trade next year at the draft.

    Also, Puljujarvi will not lack for offense.

    Please be respectful.

  51. Lowetide says:

    Georges:
    LT:

    – sv% last year was .914 (or .915) not .917

    I use hockey-reference, Oilers SP was .917.

    https://www.hockey-reference.com/teams/EDM/2017.html

  52. Georges says:

    Lowetide: I use hockey-reference, Oilers SP was .917.

    https://www.hockey-reference.com/teams/EDM/2017.html

    It’s a mistake. It’s tricky but if you look at the SA and GA they have on that page and calculate sv%, you’ll get .914.

    Here’s a page where they get the calculation right:

    https://www.hockey-reference.com/leagues/NHL_2017.html

    I can’t find SA on the nhl.com site except as a rate: SA/GP. If you run the numbers off of their team stats page:

    http://www.nhl.com/stats/team

    you’ll get .9146 or .915 rounded up.

    EDIT: hmm, hockey reference has different SA and GA numbers on those two pages. I wish I could find SA on nhl.com but I can’t.

  53. Lowetide says:

    Romulus Apotheosis:
    Empty net goals.

    Rom drops by and is all wise and everything. 🙂 Thanks! My SP is excluding EN goals, so this is a match (above). Thank God! 🙂

  54. ashley says:

    Draisaitl with 60 points this year at 2C? I’m afraid to say that I agree with you and that would be upside projection rather than RE for me.

    I’m afraid because I am wondering how long it will take the media and fanbase to turn on him like they did Eberle, Horcoff, Poti, and Mironov. I’ll set the O/U at game 38.5.

    If that is how the lines play out for most of the year, the fanbase will be begging for a trade by the end of the season which will be impossible unless we retain 3-4 million. Which is never going to happen and would be foolish after a single season of below expected performance.

    Good luck Leon. I hope you keep the critics at bay.

  55. jake70 says:

    Lowetide

    Hey LT, do you have any idea who the Oilers might have been targeting at 16 and 33 in that draft had they kept the picks? Barzal went 16, Mitch Stephens was 33. I only saw 8 minutes of the 3rd period of Penticton but liked what I saw in those forwards, just thinking if they had taken 2 forwards in 2015 instead of the GR trade, what a nice stable of 2ndary skilled forwards the team would have right now simmering and developing – oh and Barzal and Stephens both shoot right 😉

  56. ashley says:

    I think we paid a little too much for Sekera. He’s a 4 million Dman. Does retaining 1.5M in a trade still allow us to keep Nuge?

  57. ashley says:

    Next year’s cap projections are already ugly. How did we get to Chicago-esque cap hell so quickly?

  58. ashley says:

    For the record, Jokinen is my favourite FA signing since forever. Veteran skill almost guaranteed to be a value contract before the puck even drops for G1.

  59. Profit says:

    I’m a small business owner in Calgary, have decent political and business connections at different levels here and my read on the Calgary arena debacle, for those who care is:

    – It’s just posturing, as noted before here, but the big difference is I think the Flames ownership group is basically saying “we’re not going to move the team, but we’re not bending over and accepting what Nenshi wants which is a mediocre, cheapish new arena which will be controlled by the Stampede, and which all proximal investment will be controlled by the Stampede Board, and which is right next door to the expensive underground C-Train line they’re building because they have grandiose plans for another Olympics.”

    – the correlation of Seattle announcement and Flames statement IS a coincidence

    – What isn’t a coincidence is that on the weekend, Nenshi gave a big tour with local journalists of the “new East Village” location for the proposed arena (better known as the Plan B location which Nenshi had decided upon before even seeing Plan A). Nenshi was getting hurt in the current election run-up by being “anti-Flames” and so he put on a big song and dance about how he’s very pro-Flames but that this arena is the only one that makes sense. West downtown location makes no sense, why do we want to play nice with billionaires etc. A class-warefare pitch which works well for his core supporters.

    – The Flames statement was more of a reflection of that press junket and stating they’re not going to play ball to get the Olympics bid in-line and if the city wants to do that without an NHL team signed on, good luck. Which could blow up the whole Olympic bid. New arena that the Flames refuse to play in? Hilarious and insanely stupid.

    – Nenshi is hugely pompous and I think he thinks he can bully them into playing along and this was a very big (very public) push back to say “we’re not playing along and in fact we’ll wait you out”. I think honestly they’re hoping he loses the election (which likely won’t happen).

    – Maybe Nenshi gets another term but the rebellion is building here. People are fairly fed up with the entitlement and arrogance which is coming out of City Hall. It’s a toxic environment and many business people I talk to are actively campaigning against Nenshi.

    – So if they can’t make Nenshi lose, they can blow up the Olympic bid. He needs the Flames onside for that. So they’ll wait him out for 2 years until he needs a yes/no on the bid to grab maximum concessions.

    TL;DR – Nenshi is trying to force the Flames to play ball to get a new area right beside the new SE C-Train line in order to seal up the Olympics bid. Flames want to control the development of the surrounding area, like in Edmonton and will blow up the Olympic bid to make it happen. And they’re not moving to Seattle or anywhere else, it’s all about Nenshi.

  60. N64 says:

    jake70: HeyLT, do you have any idea who the Oilers might have been targeting at 16 and 33 in that draft had they kept the picks?Barzal went 16, Mitch Stephens was 33. I only saw8 minutes of the 3rd period of Penticton but liked what I saw in those forwards, just thinking if they had taken 2 forwards in 2015 instead of the GR trade, what a nice stable of 2ndary skilled forwards the team would have right now simmering and developing – oh and Barzal and Stephens both shoot right

    ~ We’d be trading away one of them to Montreal for a 4th line rental to make sure Seattle gets the other ~

  61. ashley says:

    Hunter, I will go with 96 points.

  62. Lowetide says:

    jake70: HeyLT, do you have any idea who the Oilers might have been targeting at 16 and 33 in that draft had they kept the picks?Barzal went 16, Mitch Stephens was 33. I only saw8 minutes of the 3rd period of Penticton but liked what I saw in those forwards, just thinking if they had taken 2 forwards in 2015 instead of the GR trade, what a nice stable of 2ndary skilled forwards the team would have right now simmering and developing – oh and Barzal and Stephens both shoot right😉

    Joel Eriksson Ek has been mentioned early and often for the first round selection, I believe he was the target. The second rounder is now supposed to have been Brandon Carlo, but scouting stories about “the one that got away” often appear about one year later, and that was the case with Carlo. People believe what they want, this is my opinion on the matter.

  63. Réal Goudenyéu says:

    Profit:
    I’m a small business owner in Calgary, have decent political and business connections at different levels here and my read on the Calgary arena debacle, for those who care is:

    – It’s just posturing, as noted before here, but the big difference is I think the Flames ownership group is basically saying “we’re not going to move the team, but we’re not bending over and accepting what Nenshi wants which is a mediocre, cheapish new arena which will be controlled by the Stampede, and which all proximal investment will be controlled by the Stampede Board, and which is right next door to the expensive underground C-Train line they’re building because they have grandiose plans for another Olympics.”

    – the correlation of Seattle announcement and Flames statement IS a coincidence

    – What isn’t a coincidence is that on the weekend, Nenshi gave a big tour with local journalists of the “new East Village” location for the proposed arena (better known as the Plan B location which Nenshi had decided upon before even seeing Plan A). Nenshi was getting hurt in the current election run-up by being “anti-Flames” and so he put on a big song and dance about how he’s very pro-Flames but that this arena is the only one that makes sense. West downtown location makes no sense, why do we want to play nice with billionaires etc. A class-warefare pitch which works well for his core supporters.

    – The Flames statement was more of a reflection of that press junket and stating they’re not going to play ball to get the Olympics bid in-line and if the city wants to do that without an NHL team signed on, good luck. Which could blow up the whole Olympic bid. New arena that the Flames refuse to play in? Hilarious and insanely stupid.

    – Nenshi is hugely pompous and I think he thinks he can bully them into playing along and this was a very big (very public) push back to say “we’re not playing along and in fact we’ll wait you out”. I think honestly they’re hoping he loses the election (which likely won’t happen).

    – Maybe Nenshi gets another term but the rebellion is building here. People are fairly fed up with the entitlement and arrogance which is coming out of City Hall. It’s a toxic environment and many business people I talk to are actively campaigning against Nenshi.

    – So if they can’t make Nenshi lose, they can blow up the Olympic bid. He needs the Flames onside for that. So they’ll wait him out for 2 years until he needs a yes/no on the bid to grab maximum concessions.

    TL;DR – Nenshi is trying to force the Flames to play ball to get a new area right beside the new SE C-Train line in order to seal up the Olympics bid. Flames want to control the development of the surrounding area, like in Edmonton and will blow up the Olympic bid to make it happen. And they’re not moving to Seattle or anywhere else, it’s all about Nenshi.

    After the events of the last 48 hours Nenshi’s position is nothing if not stronger. KK and CSEC bring in Bettman and childishly drop a “negotiation’s over” bomb right as city council recesses for a civic election – that’s blatant electioneering.

    CSEC wants their guy in the mayor’s office – but frankly that’s not going to happen. Nenshi’s challengers will split the “against-Nenshi” vote and he’ll win again, mark my words.

    The infrastructure that already exists in the East Village makes absolute sense from a planning perspective, it’s not only a pet project for the Mayor. But of course CSEC wants to build it in the West Village so they can reap all the profits of redevelopment. CSEC could have avoided much of this fiasco if they’d come to the table with a proposal that didn’t look like they drew it on the back of napkin the night before the presentation (CalgaryNEXT).

    The city is demanding a fair return on investment, and as a tax payer in Calgary I am firmly on the the Mayor’s side in this – and his words to the press today were definitely taking the high road and he’s put KK and CSEC in a difficult position as far as I can see.

    I can’t wait until the in camera arena negotiation discussions are released to the public.

  64. pocession charge says:

    ashley:
    Draisaitl with 60 points this year at 2C?I’m afraid to say that I agree with you and that would be upside projection rather than RE for me.

    I’m afraid because I am wondering how long it will take the media and fanbase to turn on him like they did Eberle, Horcoff, Poti, and Mironov.I’ll set the O/U at game 38.5.

    If that is how the lines play out for most of the year, the fanbase will be begging for a trade by the end of the season which will be impossible unless we retain 3-4 million.Which is never going to happen and would be foolish after a single season of below expected performance.

    Good luck Leon.I hope you keep the critics at bay.

    Your expectations of Leon (and subsequent fan fall out) is decidedly negative. For starters, he is going to put up big numbers on the first PP unit. Secondly, he should put up better 5v5 numbers playing 2C based on age/perfomance trend. Thirdly, he is going to get time on Connor’s RW and he will put up points there, too. Your comparisons of Horcoff, Poti, Mironov, and Eberle fall well short of actual comparables. Leon has more talent than all of those guys (3 OV pick) and has the work ethic to back it up. I don’t see Leon’s future playing out like the scenario you describe….at all.

  65. Georges says:

    Lowetide: Rom drops by and is all wise and everything. Thanks! My SP is excluding EN goals, so this is a match (above). Thank God!

    I see. The sv% on that page is calculated using SA and GA totals for the goalies not for the team. But, in the team statistics table, they report the GA with EN goals included and report the SA with EN shots against excluded. And the EN number seems to be off from the nhl.com EN number. Confusing. But now I know. Thanks, Rom!

  66. pocession charge says:

    Réal Goudenyéu: After the events of the last 48 hours Nenshi’s position is nothing if not stronger. KK and CSEC bring in Bettman and childishly drop a “negotiation’s over” bomb right as city council recesses for a civic election – that’s blatant electioneering.

    CSEC wants their guy in the mayor’s office – but frankly that’s not going to happen. Nenshi’s challengers will split the “against-Nenshi” vote and he’ll win again, mark my words.

    The infrastructure that already exists in the East Village makes absolute sense from a planning perspective, it’s not only a pet project for the Mayor. But of course CSEC wants to build it in the West Village so they can reap all the profits of redevelopment. CSEC could have avoided much of this fiasco if they’d come to the table with a proposal that didn’t look like they drew it on the back of napkin the night before the presentation (CalgaryNEXT).

    The city is demanding a fair return on investment, and as a tax payer in Calgary I am firmly on the the Mayor’s side in this – and his words to the press today were definitely taking the high road and he’s put KK and CSEC in a difficult position as far as I can see.

    I can’t wait until the in camera arena negotiation discussions are released to the public.

    I live in Edmonton so don’t have any skin in the game. But I have to ask: What is wrong with CSEC profiting off of a West Village development? The city still wins in that scenario because of the property tax revenue that they will receive. Why not reformulate the plan for the West Village for a shiny new arena and scrap the football stadium and field house for now to lower the overall cost? The arena is the money maker — the other two are money losers. If I was putting $200M into the project, I wouldn’t want to give up control to an entity like the Stampede (or Northlands) either.

  67. N64 says:

    Réal Goudenyéu: After the events of the last 48 hours Nenshi’s position is nothing if not stronger. KK and CSEC bring in Bettman and childishly drop a “negotiation’s over” bomb right as city council recesses for a civic election – that’s blatant electioneering.

    CSEC wants their guy in the mayor’s office – but frankly that’s not going to happen. Nenshi’s challengers will split the “against-Nenshi” vote and he’ll win again, mark my words.

    The infrastructure that already exists in the East Village makes absolute sense from a planning perspective, it’s not only a pet project for the Mayor. But of course CSEC wants to build it in the West Village so they can reap all the profits of redevelopment. CSEC could have avoided much of this fiasco if they’d come to the table with a proposal that didn’t look like they drew it on the back of napkin the night before the presentation (CalgaryNEXT).

    The city is demanding a fair return on investment, and as a tax payer in Calgary I am firmly on the the Mayor’s side in this – and his words to the press today were definitely taking the high road and he’s put KK and CSEC in a difficult position as far as I can see.

    I can’t wait until the in camera arena negotiation discussions are released to the public.

    From afar looks like Nenshi has his platform AND the Flames have kicked this down the road to better economic days and another round of Olympics bidding and horse trading. Doubt they have much expectations from this election.

  68. Lowetide says:

    Georges: I see. The sv% on that page is calculated using SA and GA totals for the goalies not for the team. But, in the team statistics table, they report the GA with EN goals included and report the SA with EN shots against excluded. And the EN number seems to be off from the nhl.com EN number. Confusing. But now I know. Thanks, Rom!

    Crazy!

    For those who care, my goalie numbers are 9EN goals and the collective (watching Star Trek) stopping 2282 of 2490.

  69. Side says:

    pocession charge: Your expectations of Leon (and subsequent fan fall out) is decidedly negative.For starters, he is going to put up big numbers on the first PP unit.Secondly, he should put up better 5v5 numbers playing 2C based on age/perfomance trend.Thirdly, he is going to get time on Connor’s RW and he will put up points there, too.Your comparisons of Horcoff, Poti, Mironov, and Eberle fall well short of actual comparables.Leon has more talent than all of those guys (3 OV pick)and has the work ethic to back it up.I don’t see Leon’s future playing out like the scenario you describe….at all.

    You are assuming Leon will achieve what you described. But what if Leon doesn’t? There are no guarantees in sports. Imo, Leon has to produce more than he has in his career yet to warrant the contract he received. What if Leon takes a step back next year, putting up only 50-60 points?

  70. godot10 says:

    pocession charge: I live in Edmonton so don’t have any skin in the game.But I have to ask:What is wrong with CSEC profiting off of a West Village development?The city still wins in that scenario because of the property tax revenue that they will receive.Why not reformulate the plan for the West Village for a shiny new arena and scrap the football stadium and field house for now to lower the overall cost?The arena is the money maker — the other two are money losers.If I was putting $200M into the project, I wouldn’t want to give up control to an entity like the Stampede (or Northlands) either.

    Calgary Next (the western downtown site) is a non-starter because it requires about $1 billion dollars from the federal government to clean up and rehabilitate the site, before they can begin building on it? Right?

    Edmonton got no federal dollars and no provincial dollars.

  71. godot10 says:

    Ryan Batty had an article up on OIlernation showing the accelerating steady decline of Lucic’s P/60 and GF/60 (apart from a partial rebound in his contract year when he was looking for a sucker…he found one…to sign him to a 7 year Austin contract, mostly NMC, and heavily buyout protected).

    Why are people expecting him to rebound? I would argue that it is likely a coin-flip. Last year was so horrid at 5×5, that he might rebound some, but those lines in Batty’s graphs had a clear stead trend down.

    I hope for Lucic to rebound as much as the next guy, but that is far from a sure thing, regardless of how hard he trained to how much weight he lost.

  72. jdhardy says:

    From where I sit (in Seattle, within viewing distance of Key Arena if not for all the skyscrapers in the way), the Seattle announcement probably has the Flames owners panicking. Offering to chip in $200 MM seems pretty weak compared to OVG paying the full $660 MM, plus $40 MM in transportation improvements, plus $20 MM community fund, plus guaranteed minimum $2.5 MM in rent to the city for the next 39 years, and saving the city having to put $100+ MM in renos into Key in the next decade.

    Seattle politics can be frustrating sometimes (and hey, the mayor is resigning in a sex scandal!) but the city played the long game and won big time on the arena (unless, of course, there’s some fine print that blows it all up). Any other team owners trying to fleece their cities are going to have to step it up.

    If the Flames’ owners were convinced the ROI on the arena makes sense, they’d build it themselves and reap all of the profits.

  73. dustrock says:

    I don’t buy the “hockey players are way tougher than soccer and basketball players” narrative, but I will state for the record that Asensio has one of the all-time great injuries today (for a Champions match!!):

    He is out with an infected pimple on his leg after he cut himself shaving his legs.

  74. leadfarmer says:

    Put me down for 105 points. Gain a few points for beating up on the Vegas knights and improvement from internal sources. Lose a few points from Sekera injury and less standing on his head from Talbot

  75. pocession charge says:

    godot10: Calgary Next (the western downtown site) is a non-starter because it requires about $1 billion dollars from the federal government to clean up and rehabilitate the site, before they can begin building on it?Right?

    Edmonton got no federal dollars and no provincial dollars.

    Yes there is the contaminated site issue. I wasn’t aware of the cost to decontaminate. A billion dollars seems like robbery (kind of like a set of 12 stairs in Toronto costing $150K+) but I’m not a contractor so who knows. They would likely get some federal funding but the province has more important money-wasting schemes at the moment. The power contract cancellations would pay for everything!

  76. rickithebear says:

    I georges:

    When I looked at free agent Dmen options for summer of 16.
    Based on Mact’s chase of HD Dmen
    Fayne
    #1 in league. victim of the built in abandonment of HD area system (Swarm)

    Ference
    top 30 1st comp HD numbers first 3 months of the first year.
    He was a brilliant leverage D in front of the net.
    Got hands and stick under much, much larger oponentds, and walke them around like rag dolls.
    Then he wrecked his shoulder.
    no leverage ability after that resulting in bad numbers.

    the only option was
    Sekera.
    when I looked at his history.
    When facing 1st comp he was a tire fire for his career.
    But in a deep enough D group.
    only facing 2nd comp or lower he was a top 10 HD dman.

    II. Pouzar:
    1. HD Shot success is about targeting from distance.
    Reflected in Success chart of all shots.
    Making Corsi distance one of the 3 most important def measures.

    2. Russels ability is the true Def measure.
    it is binary.
    a. 0% chance shot
    b. more than 0% chance shot
    he is the best in the game.
    These Dmen have have a completely diffrent Shot success chart.

    3. Goalie HD save%
    a. You want a top 10 HD Save% goalie.for your cup core.
    b. you want the best more than 0% Chance shot Save % goalie
    measured relative to a league wide 0% chance shot chart.

    III. Mcnuge.
    Assets Mact generated by:
    1. winning Draft lottery ads GM
    2. Draft
    3. Trade
    4. Arranged trade with NHL GM supporting facts
    5. UFA acquisition
    6. Col ufa Acquisition with NHL GM supporting facts

    Nurse #7 2013 Draft
    Slepyshev #88 2013 Draft
    Broissoit Nov 8 2013 Trade
    Pakarinen Jun 16 2014 UFA
    Draisatl June 27 #3 2014 Draft
    Lagesson June 27 #91 2014 Draft
    Fayne july 1 2014 UFA #1 HD Dman
    Talbot tarde agreed on Mar 2, 2015
    Acquired agreed assets (hemsky 3rd)/ (petry 2nd) per Glen Sather
    Mcdavid April 18, 2015 Mact wins lottery as GM

    Caggiula May 7, 2016 Col UFA per NHL GM Peter Chiarelli
    Benning Aug 27, 2016 Col UFA per NHL GM Peter Chiarelli

    XXX-Mcdavid – Cagguila
    XXX-Draisatl – Slepyshev
    XXX-XXX-XXX
    XXX-XXX-XXX
    XXX-Pakarinen

    XXX – XXX
    XXX- Benning
    XXX-XXX
    Nurse

    Tabot
    Broisoit

    PC:
    Maroon – XXX – XXX
    Lucic – XXX – XXX
    Jokinen – XXX – Puljujarvi
    XXX – Letestu – Kassian

    Russell – Larsson
    Sekera – XXX
    Gryba – XXX
    XXX

    XXX
    XXX

    IV. Pocession Change
    Draisatl – Eberle
    hockey Canada, jan cutoff age.

    Age 19:
    Draisatl
    Eberle no NHL games

    age 20:
    Draisatl
    Eberle (2nd comp) 69gm 18G 25A 43P -12

    Age 21
    Draisatl
    Eberle (2nd comp) 78gm 34G 42A 76P +4

    Age 22
    Draisatl
    Ebele (PvP) 48gm 16G 21A 37P -4;
    full season pace 82gm 27G 36A 63p -7

    age 23
    Eberel (PvP) 80gm 28G 37A 65P -11

    age24
    Eberle (PvP) 81gm 24G 39A 63P – 16

    Age 25
    Eberle (PvP) 69gm 25G 22A 47P -12

    Age 26
    Eberle (PvP) 82gm 20G 31A

    Forwards who generated
    5 full season rates of 20G 47P from 12-13 to 16-17
    PvP will be pointed out:
    Eberle (PvP)
    Pacioretty (PvP)
    Toews (PvP)
    Wheeler (PvP)
    Benn
    Carter
    Crosby
    P. Kane
    Kessel
    Ovechkin
    Pavelski
    Seguin
    Simmonds
    Tavares

  77. pocession charge says:

    Side: You are assuming Leon will achieve what you described.But what if Leon doesn’t? There are no guarantees in sports.Imo, Leon has to produce more than he has in his career yet to warrant the contract he received. What if Leon takes a step back next year, putting up only 50-60 points?

    I’m on record stating that the Oilers took all the risk when they signed this contract. Chia said the same thing in his interview. That said, if Leon puts up 50-60 points, something went drastically wrong and the Oilers probably don’t make the playoffs. If he’s healthy, I don’t think that there is much chance of that happening — the kid has real talent, not a flash-in-the-pan. Citing a 50-60 point season is about as fair as saying he’ll get 100-110 points. Realistically, it will be somewhere in the middle.

  78. Side says:

    pocession charge: I’m on record stating that the Oilers took all the risk when they signed this contract.Chia said the same thing in his interview.That said, if Leon puts up 50-60 points, something went drastically wrong and the Oilers probably don’t make the playoffs.If he’s healthy, I don’t think that there is much chance of that happening — the kid has real talent, not a flash-in-the-pan.Citing a 50-60 point season is about as fair as saying he’ll get 100-110 points.Realistically, it will be somewhere in the middle.

    Leon put up 51 points in 72 games played in 2015-2016.

    77 points in 82 games 2016-2017.

    I would say it’s a lot more likely he could have a 50-60 point season during his 8 year contract considering he has already posted a 50 point season and has not come close to a 100-110 season.

    If we are to go somewhere in the middle between your predictions of 50 – 110, being 80 points. Is 80 points worth $8.5 million?

  79. OriginalPouzar says:

    Optimism is like heroin:
    I personally would also like to see Connor take a few extra shifts a game on the 4th line.Letestu has said he is better in the pp and pk with less 5×5 time and getting McDavid out vs gritensity level players is a good idea in my opinion.

    Maybe but I’m cognizant of his icetime.

    I think he led the league in ES ice for forwards last year and I presume he’ll do the same this year.

    If extra ice is coming, I think I’d prefer it on the PK – with more open ice out there, I believe he is a weapon on the PK and actually provides a concern for the opposition.

    I love seeing him on the PK, and we might need him there, but an extra 90 seconds a game adds up throughout the year.

    I’m torn.

    godot10:
    Ryan Batty had an article up on OIlernation showing the accelerating steady decline of Lucic’s P/60 and GF/60 (apart from a partial rebound in his contract year when he was looking for a sucker…he found one…to sign him to a 7 year Austin contract, mostly NMC, and heavily buyout protected).

    Why are people expecting him to rebound?I would argue that it is likely a coin-flip.Last year was so horrid at 5×5, that he might rebound some, but those lines in Batty’s graphs had a clear stead trend down.

    I hope for Lucic to rebound as much as the next guy, but that is far from a sure thing, regardless of how hard he trained to how much weight he lost.

    Willis posted an article on The Athletic re: strong ES performers at ages 26 and 27 who had their production decline at age 28 – there were only 5 or 6 comparables, however I believe the general consensus was these players rebounded to historical numbers at age 29.

  80. Profit says:

    Réal Goudenyéu,

    I agree with everything you’re saying here. Completely.

    My point was Flames aren’t going anywhere, the one hammer the Flames have is the Olympics and otherwise their hand is weak, so they’re playing that card, Nenshi will win and they’ll eventually play ball after a couple years…

  81. OriginalPouzar says:

    Side: Leon put up 51 points in 72 games played in 2015-2016.

    77 points in 82 games 2016-2017.

    I would say it’s a lot more likely he could have a 50-60 point season during his 8 year contract considering he has already posted a 50 point season and has not come close to a 100-110 season.

    If we are to go somewhere in the middle between your predictions of 50 – 110, being 80 points. Is 80 points worth $8.5 million?

    He was essentially a rookie. I believe natural development during late teenage years and early 20s is real and should be taken in to consideration.

  82. pocession charge says:

    rickithebear,

    Ricki, if you are going to compare Draisaitl and Eberle, you need to write Draisaitl’s stats down.

  83. Dee Dee says:

    godot10: Ryan Batty had an article up on OIlernation showing the accelerating steady decline of Lucic’s P/60 and GF/60 (apart from a partial rebound in his contract year when he was looking for a sucker…he found one…to sign him to a 7 year Austin contract, mostly NMC, and heavily buyout protected).
    Why are people expecting him to rebound? I would argue that it is likely a coin-flip. Last year was so horrid at 5×5, that he might rebound some, but those lines in Batty’s graphs had a clear stead trend down.
    I hope for Lucic to rebound as much as the next guy, but that is far from a sure thing, regardless of how hard he trained to how much weight he lost.

    How about better linemates? How about playing with others who are more compatible with his playing style? Players that drive to the net and play in the hard areas, not float around the perimeter or run away from the puck.

    How about a team that already has its systems in place and who went on a deep run in the playoffs. It’s not like they are starting at ground zero. The team will be competitive right out of the gate.

    Don’t put all the blame on Lucic, his linemates had to shoulder at least some of the blame.

    Hunter, you can put me down for 108 points.

  84. pocession charge says:

    Side: Leon put up 51 points in 72 games played in 2015-2016.

    77 points in 82 games 2016-2017.

    I would say it’s a lot more likely he could have a 50-60 point season during his 8 year contract considering he has already posted a 50 point season and has not come close to a 100-110 season.

    If we are to go somewhere in the middle between your predictions of 50 – 110, being 80 points. Is 80 points worth $8.5 million?

    If I was a betting man, I would definitely be comfortable betting that Leon will not be a 50 point player during any year of his contract. If he plays with McZoom full time, he has a legit chance to score 100.

    And no, I don’t think he is worth $8.5M. His comps were $7.5M but he had a playoff heater and he has a good agent.

  85. Bank Shot says:

    Side: Leon put up 51 points in 72 games played in 2015-2016.

    77 points in 82 games 2016-2017.

    I would say it’s a lot more likely he could have a 50-60 point season during his 8 year contract considering he has already posted a 50 point season and has not come close to a 100-110 season.

    If we are to go somewhere in the middle between your predictions of 50 – 110, being 80 points. Is 80 points worth $8.5 million?

    Yeah. That’s top ten in scoring. By 18-19, Draisaitl will be 14th in the NHL in salary.

    By half way through the contract he’s likely to be down around 20-25th in salary.

    That will be nice if he’s able to maintain top ten scoring.

    The last few years will be especially gravy.

    The key is he has to be a top 10-20 scorer throughout the life of the contract. Would be nice if he can improve on all his intangibles as well.

  86. godot10 says:

    pocession charge: I’m on record stating that the Oilers took all the risk when they signed this contract.Chia said the same thing in his interview.That said, if Leon puts up 50-60 points, something went drastically wrong and the Oilers probably don’t make the playoffs.If he’s healthy, I don’t think that there is much chance of that happening — the kid has real talent, not a flash-in-the-pan.Citing a 50-60 point season is about as fair as saying he’ll get 100-110 points.Realistically, it will be somewhere in the middle.

    If Leon only puts up 50-60 points, it will because Lucic is done as an even strength hockey player. The risk on this team is all in the Lucic and Russell contracts.

  87. Georges says:

    godot10:
    Ryan Batty had an article up on OIlernation showing the accelerating steady decline of Lucic’s P/60 and GF/60 (apart from a partial rebound in his contract year when he was looking for a sucker…he found one…to sign him to a 7 year Austin contract, mostly NMC, and heavily buyout protected).

    Why are people expecting him to rebound?I would argue that it is likely a coin-flip.Last year was so horrid at 5×5, that he might rebound some, but those lines in Batty’s graphs had a clear stead trend down.

    I hope for Lucic to rebound as much as the next guy, but that is far from a sure thing, regardless of how hard he trained to how much weight he lost.

    A real hatchet job. Here’s an excerpt:

    “His play last season may not have been what the Oilers were expecting but I don’t think there is a need to read too much into those results at this point. We’ve seen it many times where a player reaches a point in their career and effectively falls off a cliff, but, even for a player like Lucic who has played a physical game for his entire career, I wouldn’t bet on that happening just yet. If I’m projecting Lucic’s next season I would absolutely consider those results but I wouldn’t assume that that’s his new normal. Realistically, I don’t see any reason (or perhaps don’t want to see) why he can’t do exactly what he said he needed to do which was to get back to being a really good, effective 5-on-5 player.”

    So, hey, Ryan Batty is one of those people expecting him to rebound.

    I liked his work. He focused on 5v5 but he was careful to include GA60 in those graphs. That’s playing fair.

    It’s on Lucic, of course, to get back to Lucic in his second season with the Oil. He’s going to have Drai as his Kopitar/Krejci. If he can’t make that work, we’re down to Letestu.

    Here’s Lucic’s scoring rates (points per game) at even strength and overall:

    Season, ES, Total

    07-08, 0.31, 0.51
    08-09, 0.47, 0.58
    09-10, 0.38, 0.40
    10-11, 0.61, 0.79
    11-12, 0.62, 0.75
    12-13, 0.54, 0.59
    13-14, 0.59, 0.74
    14-15, 0.44, 0.54
    15-16, 0.58, 0.68
    16-17, 0.31, 0.61

    In his last season with BOS (14-15), Krejci’s scoring was off and he got hurt. It looks like Lucic spent some time with Spooner as his C. So, unusual BOS year.

    He went to a veteran, winning LAK team and returned to normal.

    After that, he came to an EDM team that had a decade of losing as its identity and he couldn’t find his 5v5 mojo. But then let’s also remember that, in his career so far, Lucic has a lot of 5v5 mojo.

    (As for the accelerating steady decline, the first data point in that graph is 2010-11. Lucic had a GF60 of 3.51 that year. CMD’s GF60 last season was 3.52. It’s a decline off of Everest.)

  88. Georges says:

    rickithebear,

    I have to give you props for the comment the other day on comparing scoring rates of players who don’t play the same number of games. Smart!

    Your longish comments always take me time to figure out and then mull over. You may not hear back.

  89. Side says:

    pocession charge: If I was a betting man, I would definitely be comfortable betting that Leon will not be a 50 point player during any year of his contract.If he plays with McZoom full time, he has a legit chance to score 100.

    And no, I don’t think he is worth $8.5M.His comps were $7.5M but he had a playoff heater and he has a good agent.

    Ehh, 100 points? I don’t see it. I would love to eat my words, though.

  90. Side says:

    OriginalPouzar: He was essentially a rookie.I believe natural development during late teenage years and early 20s is real and should be taken in to consideration.

    Natural development is definitely a real thing that is taken into consideration.

    But how many times have players in the history of sports, who have shown a great rookie year or sophomore year, earned a big contract and then just…. plateaued or flat out declined in production? It’s not unheard of.

    In my ideal world, I would love for players to be paid based on their proven production, not potential production. Especially when the teams paying these players have a salary cap.

  91. geowal says:

    Training camp open to public on Sunday if you’re into that sort of thing.

  92. OriginalPouzar says:

    Side: Natural development is definitely a real thing that is taken into consideration.

    But how many times have players in the history of sports, who have shown a great rookie year or sophomore year, earned a big contract and then just…. plateaued or flat out declined in production? It’s not unheard of.

    In my ideal world, I would love for players to be paid based on their proven production, not potential production.Especially when the teams paying these players have a salary cap.

    Yes, for sure that happens but, with respect to Leon, he has improved year after year every year since he was drafted culminating in an elite season last year. Additionally, his elite season last year is not a surprising event – he was drafted 3rd overall and comes with high pedigree. Not to mention he seems like an extremely proud and driven player that will continue to strive to get betters.

    There isn’t, to me, any reason to think this is a one off and that he won’t continue to improve. He won’t necessarily put up more boxcars this year but his overall game should improve – faceoffs, general 2-way play, leadership, etc.

    The contract is indeed high and not without risk, I don’t think anyone really argues that, however its a calculated risk and likely a good bet.

Leave a Reply

Want to join the discussion?
Feel free to contribute!
© Copyright - Lowetide.ca