JONES. CALEB JONES.

The first time I saw him, Caleb Jones was flying. He arrived same summer as Connor McDavid, so getting noticed in that company was something else. This fall, and mind it’s early days, Caleb Jones seems to have added calmer feet. If he can combine those wheels with good decisions and calm feet, the Edmonton Oilers may have a gem from the fourth round. Manna from heaven.

THE 2018 DRAFT

Bob McKenzie’s pre-season list is here and my early favorite is a man named Ty Smith. Hopefully Edmonton is drafting No. 31 overall in 2018 but this is the year of the defenseman across the first round.

STRANGE DAYS

There was a time in the 2016 entry draft when I felt certain the Edmonton Oilers were going to trade up to draft Logan Stanley. He is a giant defender who has most of his value on the defensive side of the spectrum and would be best suited for a third round selection. Winnipeg grabbed him, always wondered how tempted PC was to trade up.

This summer, the Oilers shocked me to the shoes when taking Kailer Yamamoto. Small, violently skilled, motor that wouldn’t quit and pure aggression in puck pursuit, you can see in these games why the Oilers liked him. There’s nuance in his game, he’s not just a small player, but I’ll argue there was a time when the Oilers would have passed on him. I watched him this week with dogged determination on the forecheck and backcheck, and it was so good. He tried to do too much with the puck, I’d rather see that kind of performance than an invisible prospect. Remember those first rounders? I can list all of them from the past 25 years if you wish, but you’ll need to pack a lunch because it’s going to take all day.

CUTS!

  • LC Lane Bauer. He showed well, although not offensively.
  • L Luke Coleman. Big winger with a long stride, he got lost a little.
  • R Trey Fix-Wolansky. He’s 5.08, 165 and highly skilled. He buzzed quite a bit in this week, difficult to do because of the duplicate skill higher up the food chain.
  • RC Austin Glover. A 6.02, 187 center with good speed, he was effective mostly in a checking role.
  • RD Sahvan Khaira. Huge defender (and Jujhar’s brother), I saw him good.
  • C-W Davis Koch. He always impresses me.
  • RC Steve Owre. We didn’t see him much.
  • LC Grayson Pawlenchuk. I was very impressed by him, speed and determination.
  • LC Brandon Saigeon. Strong on the puck, good passer.
  • LD Liam Schioler. Big blue had good and bad moments.
  • RD Austin Strand. He has size, grit and skates well. Had some chaos and some brilliance.
  • RC Ethan Szypula. An excellent performance, he showed up in good spots on the ice.

CAN YOU FEEL IT?

Watching all of the defensive talent last night, it was easy to imagine what decisions may be available for this team two years from now. There’s no hurry on Caleb Jones, Ethan Bear, Ziyat Paigin or Ryan Mantha, nor is there a rush with William Lagesson. Dmitri Samorukov can develop on his own timeline (by the way, what a player!) and when Kris Russell’s NMC arrives my guess he’ll be leaving town in favor of a less expensive (and less experienced) option. Peter Chiarelli is building up a substantial group of assets here, I want them all to play as Oilers. This will not happen. I haven’t found my Jim Dorey yet (he was my favorite of the new Leafs back in about 1970, the most popular was Jim McKenny. Girls loved Jim McKenny. You could look it up) but this Jones fellow may have the inside track.

ESTIMATED TRAINING CAMP ROSTER (60)

  1. G Cam Talbot, 30. Aside from McDavid, the most important player on the roster.
  2. G Laurent Brossoit, 24. I believe he’ll keep the job but 25 starts should tell us a lot about him.
  3. G Nick Ellis, 23. One of the top players to watch in training camp and preseason.
  4. G Eddie Pasquale. AHL backup or Co-No. 1 goalie is my guess.
  5. G Shane Starrett. Another college goalie turning pro. Strong resume.
  6. G Dylan Wells. Quality performance in rookie camp.
  7. G Stuart Skinner. He rocked Penticton with the save of the tournament.
  8. L Oscar Klefbom, 24. He can wheel, his shot is a rocket and he is just coming into his own.
  9. L Kris Russell, 30. Todd McLellan values him highly, the Woodmoney tells us what he does well.
  10. L Andrej Sekera, 31. He won’t be back for at least 20 games, maybe as many as 40. Gack!
  11. L Darnell Nurse, 22. Big, strong, fleet and with a substantial mean streak. A big season ahead.
  12. L Yohann Auvitu, 27. He has dynamic qualities as a puck mover.
  13. L Ryan Stanton, 27. He appears poised to battle Auvitu for the 7D spot this fall.
  14. LD Dillon Simpson. Excellent chance he plays some NHL games this year.
  15. LD Keegan Lowe. Top 4D in Bakersfield and I think he might get NHL time in 2017-18.
  16. LD Ziyat Paigin. ETA for Paigin is fall 2018 imo, the organization loves him. You can tell based on verbal.
  17. LD Ben Betker. Big man should get a full AHL season.
  18. LD Caleb Jones. Fastest and most mobile of the new pro defensemen.
  19. LD Dmitri Samorukov. He was a revelation at rookie camp. My can he scoot.
  20. R Adam Larsson, 24. He is an actual NHL defenseman and one mean SOB. I love it.
  21. R Matt Benning, 23.  He’s a smart player, good-to-excellent with the puck and cool as a cucumber.
  22. R Eric Gryba, 29. I think he’ll be in the mix for regular third-pairing activity until Sekera retuns.
  23. R Mark Fayne, 30He can defend but speed is poor, does not play a rugged game and no offense.
  24. RD Ethan Bear. A player to watch in Bakersfield, his passing and his shot are going to get him noticed.
  25. RD Ryan Mantha. Big man, big shot, good speed. Duplicates Bear’s skill set and he is a year older.
  26. C Connor McDavid, 20. The most exciting thing since Al Gore invented the internet.
  27. C-R Leon Draisaitl, 21. I love him as a center, hope the club sticks to it.
  28. C Ryan Nugent-Hopkins, 24. Todd McLellan is going to ride him hard on the PK and at evens.
  29. RC Mark Letestu, 32. Unique skill set fits the Oilers perfectly. Ultimate utility knife.
  30. LC Brad Malone, 28. Malone can play center, wins faceoffs, penalty kills.
  31. C Joe Gambardella, 23. He is not a high end prospect but could emerge as an NHL option.
  32. C Grayson Downing. Skilled center coming off subpar second AHL season.
  33. RC Josh Currie. Back on an AHL deal, he has skill and two-way ability.
  34. RC Kyle Platzer. Platzer is pulling in to the last chance Texaco.
  35. RC Chad Butcher. Penticton superstar, he has momentum entering camp.
  36. L Patrick Maroon, 29. All he’s done since arriving is score goals. Walk year, look out!
  37. L Milan Lucic, 29.  If he can get the 5×5 back, Lucic might push 60 points (career high 62).
  38. L Drake Caggiula, 23. He may not emerge as a scorer, but there are other things he can bring.
  39. L Jussi Jokinen, 34.He will be valued for his penalty killing and for ability to play up and down the lineup
  40. L Jujhar Khaira, 23. The Oilers like his size, speed and grit, with scoring the one worry.
  41. L Chris Kelly, 36. Has a chance as PK option.
  42. L Joey Laleggia, 25. Scored damn near 20 in AHL second half.
  43. L Ryan HamiltonAHL only deal, he’ll get some time with the big club in camp.
  44. L Braden Christoffer. Final year of entry deal coming up, Christoffer hasn’t shown enough offense.
  45. L Evan Polei. Size and skill (6.02, 227 and 33 WHL goals) are intriguing. Strong Penticton.
  46. L Tyler Benson. He is skating now, can’t imagine the frustration.
  47. L Ostap Safin. Size, speed and skill. Lacks consistency.
  48. L Kirill Maksimov. He’s a real straight shooter, exactly what the Oilers need.
  49. C-R Ryan Strome, 24. This is a grand opportunity for Strome, who gets to be 97’s wingman.
  50. R Jesse Puljujarvi, 19. Puljujarvi is an impressive prospect with great skills.
  51. R Zack Kassian, 26. I feel we are looking at a brand new player who could surprise.
  52. R Anton Slepyshev, 23. I see him as being a big part of this year’s forward group. Injury a worry.
  53. R Iiro Pakarinen, 25. He plays with the abandon, a bubble player entering camp.
  54. R Ty Rattie, 24. He’s just one year older than Slepyshev and could push for a roster spot.
  55. R Mitch Callahan, 25. Consistent AHL performer, he brings skill with some physical play.
  56. R Kailer Yamamoto, 18. Electric skills and he can score goals. Uneven Penticton.
  57. R Patrick Russell. Scored only 8 times as rookie pro, posted strong offense in the NCAA.
  58. R Greg Chase. Final year of entry-level deal ahead, another last chance Texaco.
  59. R Brian Ferlin. Effective when healthy. Has had substantial injury issues.
  60. R Dave Gust. Small skill winger signed to an AHL deal.
  61. R Zach O’Brien. Played mostly in the ECHL a year ago, can also play center.

We’ll get the actual list sometime before opening night, maybe even today! I wouldn’t rule out a Dennis Wideman, but seems to me this roster looks set.

LOWDOWN WITH LOWETIDE

A fun show with crazy good guests, 10 this morning on TSN1260. Scheduled to appear:

  • Bruce McCurdy, Cult of Hockey. We’ll chat about the training camp roster and what we saw from rookie camp.
  • Rob Vollman, NHL.com and ESPN. The Pastrnak contract, a case for the defense.
  • Frank Seravalli, TSN. Duchene trade coming?

10-1260 text, @Lowetide on twitter. See you on the radio!

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187 Responses to "JONES. CALEB JONES."

  1. OriginalPouzar says:

    Jones was by far the best of the “fab four” throughout the prospects camp.

    He made the least mistakes, defended well, closed gaps well, transitioned the puck well and joined the offence well.

    Clearly at the top of the fab 4 depth chart heading in to main camp.

    The other d-man that thoroughly impressed me was Willy Lagesson – I expected him to be a pure defensive defender but he was a much better skater than I anticipated and a better puck mover – some offensive accumen was evident. I hope he was a great year in Sweden and look forward the Weekend Updates as well as updates from SwedishGuy!

  2. OriginalPouzar says:

    Yamamoto had moments in all three games he played. He’s got a great stick – knocking down pucks and breaking up play. Was fantastic on the PK. Made plays in each and every game.

    At the same time, he made mistakes in each and every game and, last night, we had a poor game. He made a couple of wonderful skill play (one great steal and dish on the PK) but he took two bad offensive zone penalties, he went horribly offside to negate a 3 on 1 in the 3rd period down by a goal and he had multiple turnovers.

    As a whole, my arrows are down a bit on Yammy – hopefully the verbal about him getting a cup of coffee this year can stop now?

    Does anyone that paid attention to this tournament think he is ready for any NHL games this year?

  3. 106 and 106 says:

    One phrase I’ve noticed you haven’t used in a long time is:

    “The NHL is not a development league.”

    That became my personal mantra for a few years, and always rolled through my brain.

    Overcooked the pasta? The NHL is not a development league. I’ll take two scoops, please. The NHL is not a development league.

    It’s nice to be passed that stage of evolution as a team.

    The AHL is a development league.

  4. Dino says:

    Yamamoto looked like a skilled player playing with bottom 6 checkers all tournament. I really want to see him with other skill and see how he plays. He sees the ice excellently and makes NHL level plays, sure he still has some areas he could get better at but I think he’s not more than a year away from the NHL.

  5. Lowetide says:

    OriginalPouzar:

    Does anyone that paid attention to this tournament think he is ready for any NHL games this year?

    I remain convinced he could get nine games this season. One of the things we sometimes do is overrate these rookie games. IF Yamamoto gets a game or two with one of the very skilled centers, he could find success. He went to rookie camp and spent time with various forwards but none have his elite skills. Now that he’s in main camp? Different equation. We wait.

  6. OriginalPouzar says:

    I agree with Samorukov being a “revelation” at rookie camp. I can see why they wanted to make sure they locked him up with an NHL contract. For a just drafted 18 year old, he did very well at the camp. Great skater, good set of skills. Excited about this pick. Miles to go.

  7. Woodguy v2.0 says:

    @DarrenDreger

    Pastrnak extension with Bruins is complete. 6 years, $40 million. $6.6667 aav.

    Pasternak scored 70 in 75 games last year for 0.93/gm playing with Bergeron and Marchand.

    Draisaitl scored 77 in 82 games last year for 0.94/gm playing with McDavid for the majority of the year.

    Man did Liut take Peter to the woodshed.

  8. OriginalPouzar says:

    Lowetide: I remain convinced he could get nine games this season. One of the things we sometimes do is overrate these rookie games. IF Yamamoto gets a game or two with one of the very skilled centers, he could find success. He went to rookie camp and spent time with various forwards but none have his elite skills. Now that he’s in main camp? Different equation. We wait.

    I did mention that yesterday – provided the caveat that “unless he performs well with more skilled NHL players….”.

    With that said, it seems an even more distant shot than it was a weak ago. It was the lack of boxcars then I’m down on, it was the mistakes, the penalties, etc. I think he was trying to do too much last night but still.

    He may very well produce on a line with McDavid or Leon early in the preseason games but does that mean he should get NHL games? I’m not so sure.

    I guess we’ll see what the coach and management think – Chiarelli was pretty express on his very low chances when he spoke with McKenzie.

  9. dustrock says:

    Woodguy v2.0:
    @DarrenDreger


    Pastrnak extension with Bruins is complete. 6 years, $40 million. $6.6667 aav.

    Pasternak scored 70 in 75 games last year for 0.93/gm playing with Bergeron and Marchand.

    Draisaitl scored 77 in 82 games last year for 0.94/gm playing with McDavid for the majority of the year.

    Man did Liut take Peter to the woodshed.

    How was Pasta away from Bergeron and Marchand, 2 of the best forwards in the entire NHL?

  10. OriginalPouzar says:

    Woodguy v2.0:
    @DarrenDreger


    Pastrnak extension with Bruins is complete. 6 years, $40 million. $6.6667 aav.

    Pasternak scored 70 in 75 games last year for 0.93/gm playing with Bergeron and Marchand.

    Draisaitl scored 77 in 82 games last year for 0.94/gm playing with McDavid for the majority of the year.

    Man did Liut take Peter to the woodshed.

    Don’t forget the 6 years versus 8 years.

    Probably would have been an extra $1M/season if it was an 8 year term.

    Bergeron plus Marchand is not all that much “worse” than McDavid and Maroon. Leon got to play with a “skilled grinder” in addition to McDavid. Marchand is an elite producer that makes his linemates better and Bergeron is a Canadian Olympian.

    Pastarnak is a small full time winger, no chance to play center.

    I’m not saying that Leon’s contract is not high and not a risk, I’m simply pointing out that citing P/G and linemates does not tell the entire story.

  11. Lowetide says:

    OriginalPouzar: I did mention that yesterday – provided the caveat that “unless he performs well with more skilled NHL players….”.

    With that said, it seems an even more distant shot than it was a weak ago. It was the lack of boxcars then I’m down on, it was the mistakes, the penalties, etc.I think he was trying to do too much last night but still.

    He may very well produce on a line with McDavid or Leon early in the preseason games but does that mean he should get NHL games? I’m not so sure.

    I guess we’ll see what the coach and management think – Chiarelli was pretty express on his very low chances when he spoke with McKenzie.

    I think we always overrate rookie camp. Every year. 🙂

  12. leadfarmer says:

    Woodguy v2.0:
    @DarrenDreger


    Pastrnak extension with Bruins is complete. 6 years, $40 million. $6.6667 aav.

    Pasternak scored 70 in 75 games last year for 0.93/gm playing with Bergeron and Marchand.

    Draisaitl scored 77 in 82 games last year for 0.94/gm playing with McDavid for the majority of the year.

    Man did Liut take Peter to the woodshed.

    Although it buys 2 less UFA years so if you were to include them I’m sure the contract would have been 7.5 per or what Drai should have signed for. I also think Bergeron and Marchand are better combination then McDavid and Maroon even though Maroon works well with McDavid. Centers get paid more than wingers and people that have good playoffs get better contracts.
    Or what Pouzar said

  13. Romulus Apotheosis says:

    Chris Kelly?

    What happened to Markus Niemelainen?

  14. Chachi says:

    Woodguy v2.0:
    @DarrenDreger


    Pastrnak extension with Bruins is complete. 6 years, $40 million. $6.6667 aav.

    Pasternak scored 70 in 75 games last year for 0.93/gm playing with Bergeron and Marchand.

    Draisaitl scored 77 in 82 games last year for 0.94/gm playing with McDavid for the majority of the year.

    Man did Liut take Peter to the woodshed.

    How much does Pastrnak get paid in years 7 and 8 of the Draisaitl deal if he continues to put up similar numbers over the course of his contract? 10 million? 11 million?

  15. geowal says:

    Woodguy v2.0:
    @DarrenDreger


    Pastrnak extension with Bruins is complete. 6 years, $40 million. $6.6667 aav.

    Pasternak scored 70 in 75 games last year for 0.93/gm playing with Bergeron and Marchand.

    Draisaitl scored 77 in 82 games last year for 0.94/gm playing with McDavid for the majority of the year.

    Man did Liut take Peter to the woodshed.

    Yes but Leon believes in himself 🙄

  16. Dino says:

    Woodguy v2.0:
    @DarrenDreger


    Pastrnak extension with Bruins is complete. 6 years, $40 million. $6.6667 aav.

    Pasternak scored 70 in 75 games last year for 0.93/gm playing with Bergeron and Marchand.

    Draisaitl scored 77 in 82 games last year for 0.94/gm playing with McDavid for the majority of the year.

    Man did Liut take Peter to the woodshed.

    I too was tempted to compare the two contracts and be upset at Chiarelli for Drai’s contract. However look at the details and it makes more sense as to why Drai got 2 million dollars more than Pastranak

    1. Bought 2 more UFA years
    2. Drai is a 6’2 200+ pound centre, Pas is a small winger
    3. Drai has put up 2 really good seasons plus a good playoff run
    4. Drai signed for 2 extra years

  17. Woodguy v2.0 says:

    dustrock: How was Pasta away from Bergeron and Marchand, 2 of the best forwards in the entire NHL?

    5v5 scoring

    Pasternak with Bergeron 2.23 pts/60
    Pasternak away from Bergeron 2.03 pts/60

    Draisaitl with McDavid 2.22 pts/60
    Draisaitl away from McDavid 1.80 pts/60

  18. Woodguy v2.0 says:

    OriginalPouzar,

    Bergeron plus Marchand is not all that much “worse” than McDavid and Maroon.
    leadfarmer,

    I also think Bergeron and Marchand are better combination then McDavid and Maroon even though Maroon works well with McDavid.

    I a big fan of both Bergeron and Marchand, but these statements are not true.

  19. Woodguy v2.0 says:

    Chachi: How much does Pastrnak get paid in years 7 and 8 of the Draisaitl deal if he continues to put up similar numbers over the course of his contract? 10 million? 11 million?

    I don’t know, we’ll see.

    What I do know is that BOS has $1.84MM/yr more to build around their core for the next 6 years than EDM does after both paid players with similar results.

    That’s significant for a cap strung team like EDM will be next year.

  20. Woodguy v2.0 says:

    geowal: Yes but Leon believes in himself

    I believe in Leon too.

    I also believe that Peter Chiarelli has always overpaid for what he wants. Both in his career in BOS and EDM.

    Connor helped the franchise by taking ~$1.8 less than he could of and Peter gave it away in his very next negotiation.

  21. Chachi says:

    While armchair GM’ing most people in their own minds think they are Sam Pollock when in actual fact they most resemble Gord Stellick.

    Edit: I should point out the person this applies to the most is myself.

  22. Chachi says:

    Woodguy v2.0: I don’t know, we’ll see.

    What I do know is that BOS has $1.84MM/yr more to build around their core for the next 6 years than EDM does after both paid players with similar results.

    That’s significant for a cap strung team like EDM will be next year.

    Don Sweeney is ON it.

  23. Woodguy v2.0 says:

    Chachi: How much does Pastrnak get paid in years 7 and 8 of the Draisaitl deal if he continues to put up similar numbers over the course of his contract? 10 million? 11 million?

    If BOS would have tacked two years at $10MM to the end of Pasternak’s contract it would be $7.5 x 8 years.

    That’s probably where Drai should have come in at for 8 years.

  24. geowal says:

    Woodguy v2.0: I believe in Leon too.

    I also believe that Peter Chiarelli has always overpaid for what he wants.Both in his career in BOS and EDM.

    Connor helped the franchise by taking ~$1.8 less than he could of and Peter gave it away in his very next negotiation.

    I don’t disagree with any of this. My point, if I have one (doubtful!) is these kind of canned justifications (he believes in himself) could be applied to any player. He has however, probably done more to improve his skills than the vast majority.

    Pertinent to this post, the full roster is up. I’m not sure what the difference is from LTs above, but it’s evidently 61 players:
    https://www.nhl.com/oilers/news/release-oilers-set-to-open-2017-training-camp-and-pre-season/c-291051004

  25. Woodguy v2.0 says:

    Chachi: Don Sweeney is ON it.

    Haha!

    I trust Peter to build a better team than Don, but Christ I wish that man used leverage when he has it.

  26. Chachi says:

    Woodguy v2.0: Haha!

    I trust Peter to build a better team than Don, but ChristI wish that man used leverage when he has it.

    He’s just a kind-hearted generous man.

  27. Chachi says:

    Woodguy v2.0: If BOS would have tacked two years at $10MM to the end of Pasternak’s contract it would be $7.5 x 8 years.

    That’s probably where Drai should have come in at for 8 years.

    Yeah, 7.5 would have been nice.

  28. geowal says:

    NOT attending main camp for variety of reasons I’m sure:

    Berglund, Cairns, Desharnais, Kemp, Marino, Niemelainen, Brinad’amour, Horak, McPhee, Muir, Rasanen, Vesel, Yakimov

    I think adding Chris Kelly to LTs list above will get you the right roster.

  29. Woodguy v2.0 says:

    To be clear:

    Overpaying Leonn ~1.5MM/yr isn’t the worst place to overpay.

    There are many more contacts that hamper EDM going forward than that one.

    My complaint comes down to this:

    A salary cap league means that managing a team is a spending efficiency contest.

    This spending efficiency is even more acute when you consider you have the best player in the NHL and are paying him accordingly.

    All the other GMs get their best young players coming off of their ELC for under $7MM except Peter and Doug Armstong giving Tarasenko $7.5MM.

    That’s a failing of his.

    Doesn’t mean I hate him.

    I like most of what he does.

    When it come to contracts over $3.9MM I haven’t thought he’d won a negotiation yet. (McDavid negotiated himself down by all accounts)

    Go Canadian Dollar!!!

  30. Brantford Boy says:

    Woodguy v2.0: I believe in Leon too.

    I also believe that Peter Chiarelli has always overpaid for what he wants.Both in his career in BOS and EDM.

    Connor helped the franchise by taking ~$1.8 less than he could of and Peter gave it away in his very next negotiation.

    +1
    I thought it would be 6.75M (Austin’s inflation) for a time, then the playoff performance tacked on an additional 500K for 7.25M… Connor taking less should have put the writing on the wall for all new signings “Be prepared to take less”… didn’t happen…

  31. Woodguy v2.0 says:

    Chachi: He’s just a kind-hearted generous man.

    Haha!

    I think he’s impatient and isn’t afraid to overpay for what he wants.

    The agents have the book on him and they all wait him out and win.

  32. geowal says:

    Woodguy v2.0: If BOS would have tacked two years at $10MM to the end of Pasternak’s contract it would be $7.5 x 8 years.

    That’s probably where Drai should have come in at for 8 years.

    Bingo. We shouldn’t be paying for the high cost of the 7th and 8th year in year’s 1-6 actual salary (annualized cap as you show, yes).

  33. Oil2Oilers says:

    Last year was the dice roll was would someone emerge and save the Oilers from a very weak RHD line up. Thankfully Benning did just that, depth is still weak at this position but it is not all together hopeless.

    This year the dice role is on Right wing. We don’t know yet if youngsters can step up to be scoring wingers in the NHL. OK skilled depth going forward in the person of Yamamoto.

    Next year the worry will likely be all about Left wing. Will one of Benson, Makismov or Safin be able to make it to the NHL as a skilled winger? Will they be able to do it as soon as next year (unlikely).

    Makismov impressed me the most over the last week, Benson would probably impress if he ever played but I don’t know if there is an NHL player amongst the three of them. Let alone a skilled line player.

  34. SwedishPoster says:

    Lowetide: I think we always overrate rookie camp. Every year.

    This x McDavids point totals this season.

    The first few games of preseason are impossible to evaluate. Not just because the games are unstructured and sloppy. Also because players approach the early preseason games differently. Some want to hit the ground running and try to play find their A game immediately, some focus on getting their legs going and worry about the technical and tactical stuff later, others focus on finding their touch and hands early and worry about getting their skating and positioning up to par when the main season is nearing. Everyone has their own process to find their game so some guys look like world beaters early on other look like beer leaguers and it says almost nothing about their actual abilities.

    Also for some players these are their first games of the preseason and others have already played numerous games with their junior or euro team. Everyone is at a different stage.

    It’s fun to see the prospects, amazing that hockey is back and you can try to look for details in a players game but to draw any substantial conclusions is pointless. Ofcourse all of us, myself very much included, will keep doing it over and over because it’s part of the fun.

  35. Durag says:

    Some of the factors in the difference between the Leon v Pasternak contracts could be:

    -Draisaitl 2015-16: 72 GP 51 P = 0.71 PPG
    -Pasternak 2015-16: 51 GP 26 P = 0.51 PPG

    -Draisaitl 2016-17 Playoffs: 13 GP 16 P
    -Pasternak 2016-17 Playoffs: 6 GP 4 P

    If I’m Leon’s agent/Boston’s GM, I’m trying to make the case that he has a more established track record than Pasternak. Plus a lot of that good work in the playoffs was done away from McDavid.

    If we think that Pasternak would have got 7.5 if he signed for the same term as Leon, maybe that accounts for the extra $1M per year.

  36. Ducey says:

    OriginalPouzar,

    You are on the mark with all your comments today.

    Was at the game last night. It was a bit all-starish, with few hits, no one stopping for rebounds and a few too many attempts to make a fancy play.

    Saw Lagesson (Oilers best player) and Jones real good. Lagesson with the long hair reminded me a little of a young Jeff Petry. You can see why they like Skinner. He blocks out most of the net. Butcher, Gambo, and Fix-Wolansky, and Polei also looked good.

    On the other hand, Paigin didn’t look great. HIs 3rd? game in North America so I will give him a pass. He can skate and pass and shoot so the tools are there.

    The Admiral didn’t look anywhere close to NHL ready- except on the PK. He was bounced around a few times and didn’t have many times where I saw him lugging the puck. He isn’t getting 9 NHL games and will be farmed out. Even he knows it. Here is his quote to Matheson last night: “I can be a lot better but it was my first pro camp. I was a little nervous. I’ll take it as a learning lesson and move on,” he said. If the Oilers are lucky, he will fallow the Eberle flight pat – back to junior and then ready for pro next year.

    Safin, Maksimov and Samorukov all showed tools. Too much inconsistency and too many drive-byes. But I think they might have stole one with Samorukov in the 3rd.

  37. N64 says:

    Woodguy v2.0: Connor helped the franchise by taking ~$1.8 less than he could of and Peter gave it away in his very next negotiation.

    The process was to sign and announce them together. Was not happening. So McDavid’s people drew a line in the sand with their demand to REDUCE 97’s salary. Don’t think you can look at the 2 contracts separately. 97 and Chia might have had a general understanding linking the 2 contracts. When 97 threw the money on the table, was he was aiming at 29’s tip jar?

  38. OmJo says:

    Woodguy v2.0:
    @DarrenDreger


    Pastrnak extension with Bruins is complete. 6 years, $40 million. $6.6667 aav.

    Pasternak scored 70 in 75 games last year for 0.93/gm playing with Bergeron and Marchand.

    Draisaitl scored 77 in 82 games last year for 0.94/gm playing with McDavid for the majority of the year.

    Man did Liut take Peter to the woodshed.

    I suggested a couple of weeks ago (I think) maybe Chia gave Drai that contract to make the Bruins lives more difficult wrt Pastrnak, as a secondary motive or something.

    Nope.

  39. N64 says:

    Position, Size, Years, McDavid signing first but with a last minute demand for a .75M reduction.

    My take factoring in all 3 and working from Pasta’s numbers is that 8×8 would have been about right for Drai.

  40. N64 says:

    OmJo: I suggested a couple of weeks ago (I think) maybe Chia gave Drai that contract to make the Bruins lives more difficult wrt Pastrnak, as a secondary motive or something.

    Nope.

    Chia might have knocked 2 years off what Boston got at that price.

  41. jtblack says:

    Leon definitely got an extra $1 mil per year than all hoped for / expected … That’s a fact .. The Pastrnak Signing is probably one of Sweeney’s best …. on his resume he also has

    1) 3 draft picks in a row in 2015 1st round … they went off the board and have yet to see any of the players show NHL promise (none have played a game). It’s still early for sure but it’s not looking great for any of those 3 …
    2) Matt Belesky. 3 more years at $3.8 Million. Had 3 Goals last year.
    3) David Backes. 4 more yrs at $6 million. He’s 33 and trending the wrong way. Points last 3 yrs 58, 45, 38. This signing was worse than Lucic due to Backes age. Each year is huge on an aging power forward. Lucic’s deal is very risky (we all agree); Backes signing was just poor the day it was inked.

    At least Sweeney is getting Pastrnak’s best years .. same with Leon …

    I think Boston misses the playoffs this year …

  42. Reasonableness says:

    1. I do think part of the payment difference can be attributed to all of UFA years, Size, position, playoff success (all things Chia mentioned in his interview)…. But for the sake of my OCD and my sanity, could we get the name right? It’s Pastrnak.

  43. Woodguy v2.0 says:

    All,

    If you are trying to justify Drai’s AAV remember what Peter himself said about the contract in his interview with Bob McKenzie.

    “its more than his comparables make”

    Peter acknowledged this and justified it with:

    1) Leon’s a center
    2) Leon is big
    3) Leon had a great playoff.

    Those are Peter’s words.

    1) Leon’s a center- my take is that this is a direct comparison to Tarasenko

    Other centers who signed recently out of their ELC: Barkov (5.9), Monahan (6.37), MacKinnon ($6.3), Scheifele (6.125)

    So that explanation doesn’t really wash

    2) Leon is big

    Leon 6’1″ 212lbs
    Barkov 6’3″ 213lbs
    Monahan 6’3″ 195lbs
    MacKinnon 6’0 205lbs
    Scheifele 6’3″ 207

    That explanation doesn’t wash either

    3) Leon had a great playoff

    Yup, he did.

    And Peter paid through the nose for it.

  44. Ducey says:

    Also, I have not been paying attention but why are Niemelainen, and Bergland not camping?

  45. Chachi says:

    Woodguy v2.0: When it come to contracts over $3.9MM I haven’t thought he’d won a negotiation yet. (McDavid negotiated himself down by all accounts)

    Cam Talbot contract is over 3.9; I would have liked more term on it (looking back from now), but seems like a bargain for the next two years, no?

  46. digger50 says:

    Woodguy v2.0: I believe in Leon too.

    I also believe that Peter Chiarelli has always overpaid for what he wants.Both in his career in BOS and EDM.

    Connor helped the franchise by taking ~$1.8 less than he could of and Peter gave it away in his very next negotiation.

    Peter shops like a rich man, that’s a fact.

  47. Chachi says:

    Reasonableness:
    1. I do think part of the payment difference can be attributed to all of UFA years, Size, position, playoff success (all things Chia mentioned in his interview)…. But for the sake of my OCD and my sanity, could we get the name right? It’s Pastrnak.

    I believe almost every GM in the NHL would trade Peesterneck straight up for Draisaitl even with their contracts being what they are.

  48. Woodguy v2.0 says:

    Durag,

    Plus a lot of that good work in the playoffs was done away from McDavid.

    In 71 minutes away from McDavid, Drai outscored ANA 5 -2

    His line had 44% of the shots, 71% of the goals and a 1122 PDO.

    Hotter than the sun and it was fun to watch, but its not a reasonable level of performance to expect in the future.

    His shot to goal rate in those 71 minutes was 7 times Crosby’s career rate and 5 times McDavid’s career rate.

  49. jtblack says:

    Woodguy v2.0,

    Leon had 23 pts in his last 18 gms … then the playoff run … I do think his great play put Peter over a barrell in a sense .. and I do agree. PC overpaid. But I do like what you said, there are better places than others to overpay .. I feel like a lot of players struggle after signing a big contract; and am a touch worried Leon may as well … Guess we will find out ….

  50. Chachi says:

    Woodguy v2.0: Other centers who signed recently out of their ELC: Barkov (5.9), Monahan (6.37), MacKinnon ($6.3), Scheifele (6.125)

    I believe whether or not someone is coming out of their ELC now means dick all and dick left town in a Ferrari he bought with a huge contract coming out of his ELC.

  51. Woodguy v2.0 says:

    Chachi: Cam Talbot contract is over 3.9; I would have liked more term on it (looking back from now), but seems like a bargain for the next two years, no?

    Yeah, that contract qualifies as good.

    I wouldn’t call it a bargain as he wasn’t an established #1 when he got the contract.

    Similar is Darling getting $4.125 x 4 from CAR.

    He’ll be a bargain too, but that’s the market for a back up going to starter.

  52. McSorley33 says:

    I agree with a lot of people on their take on the D – Jones, Lagesson and Samorukov were more than solid.

    Quite frankly, I really like the Samorukov kid.

    Agree with 106 and 106 – all of our D prospects need to develop in the AHL. Zero downside to letting
    these guys learn the pro game.

    I experienced a dimmer view of the other D prospects…..but again, that is what the A if for…

  53. Chachi says:

    Woodguy v2.0: Yeah, that contract qualifies as good.

    I wouldn’t call it a bargain as he wasn’t an established #1 when he got the contract.

    Similar is Darling getting $4.125 x 4 from CAR.

    He’ll be a bargain too, but that’s the market for a back up going to starter.

    Darling is going to look like Hasek to Carolina fans who have had to endure the last bunch of years of Cam Ward.

  54. Woodguy v2.0 says:

    Chachi: I believe almost every GM in the NHL would trade Peesterneck straight up for Draisaitl even with their contracts being what they are.

    What about Monahan, Scheifele, Barkov or MacKinnon?

    I’m not sure I make any of those deals and I like Drai a lot.

  55. RexLibris says:

    Darcy, why do you hate Draisaitl?

    (*LT may or may not have paid me to say this)

  56. Woodguy v2.0 says:

    Chachi: I believe whether or not someone is coming out of their ELC now means dick all and dick left town in a Ferrari he bought with a huge contract coming out of his ELC.

    I state “coming out of the ELC” because then you know there are at least 5 RFA years left and those are usually at a discount to market.

    Peter may have blown that up, with help from Doug Armstrong.

  57. Woodguy v2.0 says:

    RexLibris:
    Darcy, why do you hate Draisaitl?

    (*LT may or may not have paid me to say this)

    Because he’s left handed.

  58. OriginalPouzar says:

    Woodguy v2.0:
    OriginalPouzar,

    Bergeron plus Marchand is not all that much “worse” than McDavid and Maroon.
    leadfarmer,

    I also think Bergeron and Marchand are better combination then McDavid and Maroon even though Maroon works well with McDavid.

    I a big fan of both Bergeron and Marchand, but these statements are not true.

    That’s your opinion, not a fact.

    Lets not forget exactly who Patrick Maroon is and lets not forget exactly who Bergeron and Marchand are.

  59. OriginalPouzar says:

    When it come to contracts over $3.9MM I haven’t thought he’d won a negotiation yet.(McDavid negotiated himself down by all accounts)

    Go Canadian Dollar!!!

    Oscar Klefbom.

    Cam Talbot.

  60. stush18 says:

    Ducey:
    OriginalPouzar,

    You are on the mark with all your comments today.

    Was at the game last night. It was a bit all-starish, with few hits, no one stopping for rebounds and a few too many attempts to make a fancy play.

    Saw Lagesson (Oilers best player) and Jones real good. Lagesson with the long hair reminded me a little of a young Jeff Petry. You can see why they like Skinner. He blocks out most of the net.Butcher, Gambo, and Fix-Wolansky, and Polei also looked good.

    On the other hand, Paigin didn’t look great. HIs 3rd? game in North America so I will give him a pass. He can skate and pass and shoot so the tools are there.

    The Admiral didn’t look anywhere close to NHL ready- except on the PK. He was bounced around a few times and didn’t have many times where I saw him lugging the puck. He isn’t getting 9 NHL games and will be farmed out. Even he knows it. Here is his quote to Matheson last night: “I can be a lot better but it was my first pro camp. I was a little nervous. I’ll take it as a learning lesson and move on,” he said.If the Oilers are lucky, he will fallow the Eberle flight pat – back to junior and then ready for pro next year.

    Safin, Maksimov and Samorukov all showed tools. Too much inconsistency and too many drive-byes. But I think they might have stole one with Samorukov in the 3rd.

    The flyers they took on Safin, maksimov, and samorukov are just awesome pickups imo.

    Safin it’s basically all consistency. Which as a euro playing his first games in North America, I’m sure he’s going to come on strong towards the end of this year.

    Maksimov, imo, needs to improve his skating a bit. But honestly there isn’t a whole lot to his game I could pick apart.

    While I saw samorukov good, I’m not sure how he’ll develop. Kinda like nurse, he has the tools, I just wonder if he’ll put it together. I saw some questionable passes and decisions.

    Either way, the drafting lately has been top notch imo

  61. Georges says:

    Brad Marchand was a career 0.64 P/GP player when he signed his 8 year, $49M deal before the start of last season. Last season, he put up 1.06 P/GP. Bam!

    Marchand is 29 years old. He’s played 8 seasons in the NHL. His highest P/GP prior to last year was 0.8 in 12-13 and 0.79 in 15-16. If he scores near 1 P/GP for the next few seasons, the Bruins were more lucky than good. You couldn’t pick him for a point a game player before he signed that contract. And they have him signed for 8 more sweet and beautiful 30-something years.

    Pastrnak was a 0.55 P/GP player before his 0.93 last season with Marchand.

    How can Pastrnak ask for and get Drai money playing with Marchand (cap hit $6.125M) and Bergeron (cap hit $6.875)? You don’t make more than Gretzky, whoever Gretzky happens to be on your team. Unless you’re the Gretzky of your team.

    As for what Drai got, YOLO.

  62. northof51 says:

    Woodguy v2.0:
    Durag,

    Plus a lot of that good work in the playoffs was done away from McDavid.

    In 71 minutes away from McDavid, Drai outscored ANA 5 -2

    His line had 44% of the shots, 71% of the goals and a 1122 PDO.

    Hotter than the sun and it was fun to watch, but its not a reasonable level of performance to expect in the future.

    His shot to goal rate in those 71 minutes was 7 times Crosby’s career rate and 5 times McDavid’s career rate.

    60% of the time, I agree with Woodguy every time.

    It’s not even just a possibility that Drai’s future playoff point totals and goal shares regress, it is a guarantee. This contract was an overpay when it was signed, and will look very bad after he has a 880 PDO playoff where he only gets 5 points in 13 games. Imagine the collective head explosion in Oiler land then… Gross.

    Edit: I also like Drai. I just wish PC wouldn’t have paid him so damn much money.

  63. Chachi says:

    Woodguy v2.0: What about Monahan, Scheifele, Barkov or MacKinnon?

    I’m not sure I make any of those deals and I like Drai a lot.

    Only one of those guys I would consider trading Drai for is MacKinnon and only because of the contract. Scheifele maybe, but he’s RNH bad at faceoffs and is not going to shoot 20% every year. I know you love Barkov, but he hasn’t come close to playing a full season and that matters. And Monahan? Really? When Gaudreau goes to Philadelphia does Monahan put up 50 points a season?

  64. OriginalPouzar says:

    Ducey:
    OriginalPouzar,

    You are on the mark with all your comments today.

    Was at the game last night. It was a bit all-starish, with few hits, no one stopping for rebounds and a few too many attempts to make a fancy play.

    Saw Lagesson (Oilers best player) and Jones real good. Lagesson with the long hair reminded me a little of a young Jeff Petry. You can see why they like Skinner. He blocks out most of the net.Butcher, Gambo, and Fix-Wolansky, and Polei also looked good.

    On the other hand, Paigin didn’t look great. HIs 3rd? game in North America so I will give him a pass. He can skate and pass and shoot so the tools are there.

    The Admiral didn’t look anywhere close to NHL ready- except on the PK. He was bounced around a few times and didn’t have many times where I saw him lugging the puck. He isn’t getting 9 NHL games and will be farmed out. Even he knows it. Here is his quote to Matheson last night: “I can be a lot better but it was my first pro camp. I was a little nervous. I’ll take it as a learning lesson and move on,” he said.If the Oilers are lucky, he will fallow the Eberle flight pat – back to junior and then ready for pro next year.

    Safin, Maksimov and Samorukov all showed tools. Too much inconsistency and too many drive-byes. But I think they might have stole one with Samorukov in the 3rd.

    Thanks – I agree with most of that.

    Paigin did get 5 games in Bakersfield at the end of last year (and, from accounts, looked better than he did over the last week).

  65. OriginalPouzar says:

    I can’t wait until Drai puts up 74 points as the primary 2C this year and put this conversation to bed.

  66. stush18 says:

    Woodguy v2.0: What about Monahan, Scheifele, Barkov or MacKinnon?

    I’m not sure I make any of those deals and I like Drai a lot.

    Scheifle was a steal.

    But I’ll be honest I wouldn’t trade drai for anyone other than barkov, based off age, term, AAV, and production.

    It’s really tough to evaluate any of these guys imo because all of their teams are different types of dysfunctional.

  67. pocession charge says:

    Woodguy v2.0:
    @DarrenDreger


    Pastrnak extension with Bruins is complete. 6 years, $40 million. $6.6667 aav.

    Pasternak scored 70 in 75 games last year for 0.93/gm playing with Bergeron and Marchand.

    Draisaitl scored 77 in 82 games last year for 0.94/gm playing with McDavid for the majority of the year.

    Man did Liut take Peter to the woodshed.

    Yes he sure did. Giving in to the agent demands is becoming Chia’s calling card. Perhaps that’s a bit of hyperbole but negotiation is not Chia’s strength. He is going to need to learn to be more firm and less generous going forward.

  68. pocession charge says:

    Cam Talbot’s next contract already scares the shit out of me.

  69. hags9k says:

    So then I guess if we traded Leon for Pastrnak right now we would be taking Boston to the woodshed?

    I don’t think so. I think the Leon contact was a little high, but we can’t just take pts/60 and say apples to apples and Peter got fleeced.

  70. leadfarmer says:

    digger50: Peter shops like a rich man, that’s a fact.

    One could argue that
    Woodguy v2.0,

    One could argue that Drai’s contract went up because of what was given to McDavid

  71. pocession charge says:

    leadfarmer: One could argue that
    Woodguy v2.0,

    One could argue that Drai’s contract went up because of what was given to McDavid

    If that was the case then why didn’t Pasternak’s contract go up, too? The answer is because McDavid is not a comparable for any of these guys. Liut pushed and Chia caved.

  72. anjinsan says:

    Chiarelli continues his over-paying ways. Draisaitl’s contract is $1.5-2.0 million too high.
    Russell’s contract is at least $1 million too high. Etc.
    If Puljujarvi and Nurse play to potential this season, this resource management problem Chiarelli has seriously constrains the team going forward. The poster who wrote that Chiarelli didn’t play for Stanley but instead played for Legitimacy made lots of sense.

  73. digger50 says:

    Thoughts on Joe Gambardella’s play so far?

    He plays hard, always around the puck and in on the play. Seems he has been a little lost in all the excitement with signing so many depth players. It will be good to see him at next level of camp.

    Thanks LT for the info on Spencer Foo’s NHLE of 31. Calgary were happy little pineapples to land him, meanwhile Gambo is sitting with an NHLE of 39.5, that’s excellent. It looks like an uphill battle for him to land a spot, but he and Butcher could be a lethal duo in California.

  74. hunter1909 says:

    Hunter1909’s Oilers Death March!

    Returns for another season!

    Bigger and better than ever!

    Here’s how to play: simply enter the amount of points you expect the Edmonton Oilers to get during the 2017-18 season;

    At the end of the season the player(s) with the closest total wins!

    It’s easy!!

    contest open until the opening puck drop of the 2017-18 season

  75. jm363561 says:

    Woodguy v2.0: If BOS would have tacked two years at $10MM to the end of Pasternak’s contract it would be $7.5 x 8 years.

    That’s probably where Drai should have come in at for 8 years.

    That sums up my view. Love Leon but hated the overpay at the time and nothing since has changed my mind. As a supporter of the Intangibles Matter school of thought I have a question mark on the effect of this contract on a previously tight locker room.

  76. OriginalPouzar says:

    digger50:
    Thoughts on Joe Gambardella’s play so far?

    He plays hard, always around the puck and in on the play. Seems he has been a little lost in all the excitement with signing so many depth players. It will be good to see him at next level of camp.

    Thanks LT for the info on Spencer Foo’s NHLE of 31. Calgary were happy little pineapples to land him, meanwhile Gambo is sitting with an NHLE of 39.5, that’s excellent. It looks like an uphill battle for him to land a spot, but he and Butcher could be a lethal duo in California.

    As expected, given he’s an older and more mature player, he was the leader of the forwards and was an offensive leader.

    I think he will battle with Malone as a potential call-up for the bottom 6/PK role.

  77. Pink Socks says:

    Woodguy v2.0:
    @DarrenDreger


    Pastrnak extension with Bruins is complete. 6 years, $40 million. $6.6667 aav.

    Pasternak scored 70 in 75 games last year for 0.93/gm playing with Bergeron and Marchand.

    Draisaitl scored 77 in 82 games last year for 0.94/gm playing with McDavid for the majority of the year.

    Man did Liut take Peter to the woodshed.

    I think taking Chia to the woodshed may be a bit strong. Yes $8.5m is higher than we would have liked, but those 2 extra years is the icing on the cake. 6 years from now we can’t know what will happen with league revenues and the cap, but I take Drai at $8.5 for 8 years over Pastrnak at $6.67 for 6, and I have more confidence Leon provides value per dollar over Pastrnak.

    I think (?) it’s fair to say Pastrnak comes in between $7.5m & $8.0m over an 8 year term, but again all comes down to Chia hedging his bet that the league experiences improved revenues year over year thanks to expansion, hopefully 1 more addition (go Seattle!), and a Canadian dollar which has most arrows are pointing in a positive direction.

    Ultimately, IMO, it comes down to this: NHL salary cap over the last 8 years has grown by 40%. Likely this does not repeat itself, but if even if a fraction of this growth, say $20m over 8 years occurs, I think PC wins his bet and Sweeney loses. If the cap doesn’t move, Sweeney wins big.

  78. leadfarmer says:

    pocession charge: If that was the case then why didn’t Pasternak’s contract go up, too?The answer is because McDavid is not a comparable for any of these guys.Liut pushed and Chia caved.

    I think people are significantly understating what a wonderful landing spot Pastrnak got on Marchand’s and Bergeron’s wing. and when he wasnt there he got to hang out with David Krejci.
    Also Drai, when taking McDavids contract into account, is tied for 6th highest paid center in the league. Pastrnak is the 7th highest paid right winger in the league. Centers cost more than wingers.

  79. stush18 says:

    hags9k:
    So then I guess if we traded Leon for Pastrnak right now we would be taking Boston to the woodshed?

    I don’t think so.I think the Leon contact was a little high, but we can’t just take pts/60 and say apples to apples and Peter got fleeced.

    Ya I really don’t understand this.

    I would NOT trade draisaitl, contract and all, for Pasternak,

    Imo, and things can change, Leon is the best player to come out of his draft class. Ahead of ekblad and Pasternak.

    As I said earlier, I don’t think there’s many players I would trade draisaitl for.

  80. YKOil says:

    PC wants what he wants and everyone knows it.

    So he overpays on some contracts (Drai, Russell) and he gets less than top/comparable dollar on some trades (Hall *, Eberle) and he makes other, more questionable moves, as he goes (Pouliot buy-out this year).

    When he isn’t under the gun he tends to do very well. PC is a good GM but there is a book on him.

    Drai at $7.5 over 8 would have been a decent deal.

    * Always maintained that the Hall trade should have included the Korpikoski salary dump (even keeping salary if need be) at the very least – cap space is one trade asset New Jersey had a LOT of last year.

  81. geowal says:

    hunter1909:
    Hunter1909’s Oilers Death March!

    Returns for another season!

    Bigger and better than ever!

    Here’s how to play: simply enter the amount of points you expect the Edmonton Oilers to get during the 2017-18 season;

    At the end of the season the player(s) with the closest total wins!

    It’s easy!!

    contest open until the opening puck drop of the 2017-18 season

    Hunter: Put me down for 99 points

  82. Reasonableness says:

    Woodguy v2.0:
    All,

    If you are trying to justify Drai’s AAV remember what Peter himself said about the contract in his interview with Bob McKenzie.

    “its more than his comparables make”

    Peter acknowledged this and justified it with:

    1) Leon’s a center
    2) Leon is big
    3) Leon had a great playoff.

    Those are Peter’s words.

    1) Leon’s a center-my take is that this is a direct comparison to Tarasenko

    Other centers who signed recently out of their ELC: Barkov (5.9), Monahan (6.37),MacKinnon ($6.3),Scheifele (6.125)

    So that explanation doesn’t really wash

    2) Leon is big

    Leon 6’1″ 212lbs
    Barkov6’3″ 213lbs
    Monahan 6’3″ 195lbs
    MacKinnon 6’0 205lbs
    Scheifele 6’3″ 207

    That explanation doesn’t wash either

    3) Leon had a great playoff

    Yup, he did.

    And Peter paid through the nose for it.

    I wasn’t trying to justify Leon’s contract… I think he got paid too much by the 1.5m you’ve mentioned. I was just listing the perceived and explained reasons for why he got paid, regardless of their statistical merit, particularaly in comparison to Pastrnak.

    On another note, watching all of Yamamoto’s goals from last year, it looks like he was often a point-man/trigger-man on their powerplay. A lot of his goals were on bombs from the point and the Ovechkin circle. Obviously that doesn’t mean he’ll be handed the spot when he makes the team, (whenever that may be) but I didn’t realize that was a tool he had in his toolbox.

  83. Professor Q says:

    hunter1909:
    Hunter1909’s Oilers Death March!

    Returns for another season!

    Bigger and better than ever!

    Here’s how to play: simply enter the amount of points you expect the Edmonton Oilers to get during the 2017-18 season;

    At the end of the season the player(s) with the closest total wins!

    It’s easy!!

    contest open until the opening puck drop of the 2017-18 season

    97 points for the Professor, my dear Hunter. Please and thank you very much.

  84. N64 says:

    Woodguy v2.0: If BOS would have tacked two years at $10MM to the end of Pasternak’s contract it would be $7.5 x 8 years.
    That’s probably where Drai should have come in at for 8 years

    You have the forward and centre with similar numbers at 8×7.5M.

    And yes Chia conceded he paid above comparables. But forward and center are not even value at the same scoring rate.

    Both of the above square with the Pasta comparable suggesting 8 x 8 for Drai.

  85. Reasonableness says:

    hunter1909,

    94 points for Hunter
    I think Sekera missing is worth that many points being subtracted from last year

  86. pocession charge says:

    YKOil:
    PC wants what he wants and everyone knows it.

    So he overpays on some contracts (Drai, Russell) and he gets less than top/comparable dollar on some trades (Hall *, Eberle) and he makes other, more questionable moves, as he goes (Pouliot buy-out this year).

    When he isn’t under the gun he tends to do very well.PC is a good GM but there is a book on him.

    Drai at $7.5 over 8 would have been a decent deal.

    * Always maintained that the Hall trade should have included the Korpikoski salary dump (even keeping salary if need be) at the very least – cap space is one trade asset New Jersey had a LOT of last year.

    The Pouliot buy out doesn’t make a ton of sense at the moment because they have the cap space. However, they did not care for the player and got rid of him no matter the cost. Tough to blame them as Pouliot was dreadful last season. The whole ‘not getting full value for Eberle’ thing doesn’t ring true. I doubt that he got better offers and left them on the table.

  87. GMB3 says:

    Woodguy v2.0: If BOS would have tacked two years at $10MM to the end of Pasternak’s contract it would be $7.5 x 8 years.

    That’s probably where Drai should have come in at for 8 years.

    Agreed.

  88. JustWatt says:

    N64: But forward and center are not even value at the same scoring rate.

    This is correct. But Drai scored most of his points as a winger. And he’s going to get paid like a free agent center who can throw up those points. That’s the rub for those who feel like this was an overpay.

    Chia admitted that he paid too much (ie. higher than the comparables). His frank admission of this makes the argument that he wasn’t overpaid that you and others are giving unreasonable. He wasn’t paid fairly, he just wasn’t. He was paid excessively in comparison to his peers, even if we unreasonably compare his points scored as a RFA winger to those of FA centers.

    It’s totally fine to say you are OK with the overpay because that’s opinion. And if Drai finishes in the top 10 in points this season while playing most of his time at center then I’ll agree that he was worth what Chia paid him. But even if that happens you still can’t go back to this moment after-the-fact and say we were wrong. Players salaries are primarily determined by how the players perform in relationship to their peers. And at the time of his signing, Drai was a top 10 scoring winger just leaving his entry level contract and his none of his comparables were being paid more than $7.5 million. There’s no reason to think that Chia could not have pushed successfully for that contract. He chose to overpay. Your point is true but I see it as actually supporting that idea, not contradicting it.

  89. stush18 says:

    pocession charge: The Pouliot buy out doesn’t make a ton of sense at the moment because they have the cap space.However, they did not care for the player and got rid of him no matter the cost.Tough to blame them as Pouliot was dreadful last season.The whole ‘not getting full value for Eberle’ thing doesn’t ring true.I doubt that he got better offers and left them on the table.

    Too often we ignore human element in these discussions.

    I’m willing to bet many in the room did not like pouliots penalties he took. Especially when they are often described as lazy. Even more so when you can see the obvious skill the guy possesses.

    So does chiarelli wait another year with him on the fourth line? I’m going to assume he tried to trade him.

    I think at a certain point teams have reached a certain point of competitiveness, and you need to start working with the chemistry in the room (or not).

    I always say washingtons biggest mistake a few years ago, was when they dealt laich to Toronto for winnik. They had the cap space to make it to the end of the season, but saw a way to get out from his contract.

    You could see the devastation on that team. Every guy talked about how hard it was, what a loss it was. Coaches lamented it.

    Washington struggled after the deadline, and flamed out with, imo, what was there best team to date.

    You see it every year when teams deal for big prices at the deadline. Adding hanzal and moving guys off the roster, trading away guys, when your team is already competitive. There are lots of examples of these deals not moving the needle the right way.

    Sometimes you just need to get rid of a guy. (Or keep him)

  90. oscarmike says:

    I don’t understand why the good players are always expected to take a pay cut. Saying that Leon was overpaid by $1 million is absolute nonsense. Basically the way fans rate a players value is 10 points=$1million. If the Salary Cap keeps increasing every year why should the owners be able to keep all that profit. It seems like most fans have the same point of view on a hockey players salary as they do on a politicans salary. Just because a person buys season tickets that gives them the right to say what a player should make. Also, the more a hockey player makes the more they dontate.

  91. GMB3 says:

    Woodguy v2.0: What about Monahan, Scheifele, Barkov or MacKinnon?

    I’m not sure I make any of those deals and I like Drai a lot.

    I trade Drai for every single one of those players when accounting for contract;

  92. stush18 says:

    JustWatt,

    Well actually draisaitl just needs to finish ahead of the guys behind him in top paid centres.

    Right behind him are giroux, getzlaf, kuznetsov, Thornton, johansen, oreilly, stastny, spezza, sedin, and krejci. I think he could outscore most of them, kuznetsov, johansen, are immediate threats, while giroux and getzlaf a possibility.

    Also, if he outscores any of kopitar, Toews, malkin, or Crosby/mcdavid, I think we could argue we have him for a bargain.

    Last year he was fifth, although he was behind getzlaf and malkin in terms of pts/gm.

    So we’re looking at the ~8th best scoring centre in the league? Behind guys on the downside of there careers?

  93. GMB3 says:

    OriginalPouzar:
    I can’t wait until Drai puts up 74 points as the primary 2C this year and put this conversation to bed.

    I hope this is what happens as well.

  94. Oil2Oilers says:

    hunter1909: Hunter1909’s Oilers Death March!

    100pts

    97 + 3 years in the league.

    Thank you

  95. Cassandra says:

    OriginalPouzar:
    I can’t wait until Drai puts up 74 points as the primary 2C this year and put this conversation to bed.

    74 points would be a major disappointment. Given his prior contract status he is being paid to be a superstar. He needs to be in the top 3 in scoring for the contract to break even. Year after Year.

    That’s what he is being paid for.

    We were told at the time that there was a new normal. That the RFA discount doesn’t exist anymore. And then the very next contract signed demonstrates the contrary.

    A six year contract is way better than an eight year contract. There is no way the over/under on Pasternak’s next contract is 10 million. That doesn’t price in the real risk of depreciation.

    In the same way there is no way the over/under on Draisatl’s next deal is 11 or 12 million. Paying full price for UFA years that are six years away is a fool’s gambit.

  96. stush18 says:

    ALSO, is there a more underrated player in the league than Nicklas backstrom?

  97. Georges says:

    Cassandra,

    That was the longest weekend ever!

  98. stush18 says:

    GMB3: I trade Drai for every single one of those players when accounting for contract;

    Really?

    Monohans an elite 2c, poor 1c. Kind of like nuge.
    Scheifle is quite a bit older, but props, he’s worked hard and fixed his skating.
    Barkov doesn’t have the production, but his contract is very nice.
    Mckinnon hasn’t been producing since his rookie season.

    I def would not trade for Mckinnon or monohan.

    Barkov is kopitar-ish, in that he produces great possession numbers but lacks that higher end scoring gear.

    Scheifle is a great contract. No arguement really.

  99. Pink Socks says:

    Georges:
    Cassandra,

    That was the longest weekend ever!

    This made me laugh, thank you.

  100. Ryan says:

    pocession charge: If that was the case then why didn’t Pasternak’s contract go up, too?The answer is because McDavid is not a comparable for any of these guys.Liut pushed and Chia caved.

    Not excusing Chiarelli nor trying to justify Leon’s contract…

    However, I do think that it’s fair to acknowledge that McDavid altered the internal salary cap structure of the Oilers in a manner that would have a greater impact on Draisatl’s contract than Pasta’s.

    We all know that the dice have no memory, but I’d imagine it would be a real bitch to have the playoff scoring conversation with Liut.

    You’re paying 12.5 m to a guy who scored 9 points in the playoffs and my client had 16…

    Really though, if you want to fault anyone, you should place some blame on Mclellan who played him so extensively with 97 during a contract year.

  101. Pink Socks says:

    Cassandra: 74 points would be a major disappointment.Given his prior contract status he is being paid to be a superstar.He needs to be in the top 3 in scoring for the contract to break even.Year after Year.

    That’s what he is being paid for.

    We were told at the time that there was a new normal.That the RFA discount doesn’t exist anymore.And then the very next contract signed demonstrates the contrary.

    A six year contract is way better than an eight year contract.There is no way the over/under on Pasternak’s next contract is 10 million.That doesn’t price in the real risk of depreciation.

    In the same way there is no way the over/under on Draisatl’s next deal is 11 or 12 million.Paying full price for UFA years that are six years away is a fool’s gambit.

    So in order for the $8.5m to be “worth it” Drai needs to finish 3rd behind McDavid and Crosby year over year? That’s a reach, even for you.

  102. Cassandra says:

    Pink Socks: This made me laugh, thank you.

    Me too.

  103. JustWatt says:

    stush18,

    Almost every one of the players you named would be UFA if they were available right now. It makes a difference in what you get paid in the NHL. Chia had the negotiating hammer and he didn’t use it. He chose not to use his position of strength to bring the contract price down and in doing so he increased the cap difficulties of his team down the road.

    It’s true that Drai can make us all feel better about him being worth the money he’s paid but it will never change the fact that he should have been signed for less.

    If Draisaitl earns his $8.5 through elite play (and I really hope he does, it’ll rain Stanley’s here) then all it will mean is we could have had him on a bargain deal and had even more financial flexibility to acquire/keep good supporting players.

    And you are still assuming in your argument that he can replicate his scoring numbers as a center. Chia paid him like he can do it without having almost any evidence of it. It’s not just a gamble, it’s a point that he should have used to bring the AAV down. It’s a lost opportunity no matter how well he plays.

  104. N64 says:

    JustWatt: Chia admitted that he paid too much (ie. higher than the comparables). His frank admission of this makes the argument that he wasn’t overpaid that you and others are giving unreasonable

    You managed to quote my sentence “But forward and center are not even value at the same scoring rate.”

    But the sentence before that was “And yes Chia conceded he paid above comparables”

    And the sentence after that was “Both of the above square with the Pasta comparable suggesting 8 x 8 for Drai.”

    If you’re going to lump me in with your unreasonables at least hunt in the same postal code of the comment you replied to.

    If Woodguy concedes 8 x 7.5 for a comparable F who won’t isn’t a natural C and Chia concedes 8 X 8.5 is above comparable that leaves some room for a 8 x 8 being fair comp based value for the Centre.

  105. Cassandra says:

    Pink Socks: So in order for the $8.5m to be “worth it” Drai needs to finish 3rd behind McDavid and Crosby year over year?That’s a reach, even for you.

    His contract is unprecedented. Factoring RFA years he is close to the highest paid player in the league other than McDavid. It is reasonable to expect him to justify that with points.

    RFA players who score 75 points, with more assists than goals, do not get paid 8.5 million dollars a year. He needs to play better, much better, than last year to justify the contract.

  106. jtblack says:

    Cassandra,

    “He needs to be in the top 3 in scoring for the contract to break even.” – How did you arrive at this lofty benchmark for Leon?

  107. Professor Q says:

    stush18:
    ALSO, is there a more underrated player in the league than Nicklas backstrom?

    According to the NHL articles lately, Scheifele is that player. But I think Backstrom (Washington version) is indeed a bit more underrated than Scheifele, especially considering he wasn’t even in said conversation.

  108. Woogie63 says:

    The lack of success of our second round picks might be why we are paying a premium on first rounders.

    TSN article chance for 100 NHLs

    1st rounder +70%
    2nd rounder 32%

    since 2012 our second rounders

    2012 Moroz 0 games
    2013 Roy 0 games
    2014 No Pick 0 games
    2015 No Pick 0 games
    2016 Benson 0 games
    2017 No pick 0 games

  109. Professor Q says:

    N64: You managed to quote my sentence “But forward and center are not even value at the same scoring rate.”

    But the sentence before that was “And yes Chia conceded he paid above comparables”

    And the sentence after that was “Both of the above square with the Pasta comparable suggesting 8 x 8 for Drai.”

    If you’re going to lump me in with your unreasonables at least hunt in the same postal code of the comment you replied to.

    If Woodguy concedes 8 x 7.5 for a comparable F who won’t isn’t a natural C and Chia concedes 8 X 8.5 is above comparable that leaves some room for a 8 x 8 being fair comp based value for the Centre.

    Indeed. Kuznetsov and his $7.8 AAV contract would be the comparable this year especially. Fluctuates between W and C like Draisaitl, similar scoring, etc.

    Ryan Johansen on the other hand, similar AAV to Kuzy, is Nashville’s Top Line C and I guess seen as more physical and essential as an anchor C to Nashville than Draisaitl is to Edmonton (obviously Chia and Drai thought differently).

    But Drai did obviously have more points than those two and better playoffs (though Johansen had a good playoffs too, until his injury). As well as being younger.

  110. The Mook says:

    Hunter, put me down for 106 points please

  111. jtblack says:

    Rather than comparing Drai to the best contracts out there, how about we look at some other contracts for comparison.

    Claude Giroux – $8.3 Mil 58 Points
    Ryan Johansen – $8 Mil 61 Points
    Kuzenetsov – $7.8 Mil 59 Points
    Ryan O’Reilly – $7.5 Mil 55 Points
    Jason Spezza – $7.5 Mil 50 Points
    David Krejci – $7.2 Mil 54 Points

    All that I am saying is that there are certainly better contracts out there than Leon’s … no doubt about it; but there are also many other contracts that are much worse than Leon’s … IF Leon drops to 55 Points next year, he falls in with this group of overpaid; but Leon hasn’t fallen yet .. and may not ..

  112. Professor Q says:

    jtblack,

    To be fair that would require the two in that group to stay at that rate in their new contracts this year. They might do better, just as Draisaitl has a chance to improve as well.

  113. Pink Socks says:

    Cassandra: His contract is unprecedented.Factoring RFA years he is close to the highest paid player in the league other than McDavid.It is reasonable to expect him to justify that with points.

    RFA players who score 75 points, with more assists than goals, do not get paid 8.5 million dollars a year.He needs to play better, much better, than last year to justify the contract.

    I’m not trying to justify the dollar amount. I love the 8 year terms, but I agree he is overpaid by $500k-$1m. I think Woodguy’s comment in on the mark that there are worse places to overpay. I just dont think top 3 in scoring is a reasonable benchmark for Drai to provide enough value to justify the contract. If he gets 75 pts playing more of a 2C role this year I would be ecstatic and feel the contract is acceptable. Also, fast forward a few years and I do believe his contract is very attractive and we’ll look back being happy with the risk that PC took. Of course he could lay an egg and put up 50 pts and that could very well cost PC his job.

  114. Woodguy v2.0 says:

    OriginalPouzar: Oscar Klefbom.

    Cam Talbot.

    I mentioned Talbot and Klef the other day.

    Forgot them today.

  115. Woodguy v2.0 says:

    OriginalPouzar: That’s your opinion, not a fact.

    Lets not forget exactly who Patrick Maroon is and lets not forget exactly who Bergeron and Marchand are.

    Yes, its my opinion, which I’m pretty sure is correct.

    Which facts would prove it to you?

    Also,

    Pasternak scored 34 last year with Marchand and Bergeron.

    Maroon scored 27 with McDavid last year.

    If your contention is that M+B = 97 then logically Maroon would score 27 with M+B and therefore Maroon is only a slighly worse player than Pasternak.

    I don’t think that’s true.

  116. jtblack says:

    If we fast forward 3 years, do you guys (gals) think there will be quite a few players making $8 Million + …. IMO Connor raised the ceiling across the league ..

    I see Kucherov, Seguin, Matthews, Laine, Eichel and Tavares to name a few; all making north of $9 Million in the next couple seasons … There are probably others … This doesn’t justify the Leon contract; I am just thinking that the overall Cap Hit for Top players is going to continue to rise …

  117. Cassandra says:

    jtblack:
    Rather than comparing Drai to the best contracts out there, how about we look at some other contracts for comparison.

    Claude Giroux – $8.3 Mil 58 Points
    Ryan Johansen – $8 Mil61 Points
    Kuzenetsov – $7.8 Mil 59 Points
    Ryan O’Reilly – $7.5 Mil55 Points
    Jason Spezza – $7.5 Mil 50 Points
    David Krejci – $7.2 Mil54 Points

    All that I am saying is that there are certainly better contracts out there than Leon’s … no doubt about it; but there are also many other contracts that are much worse than Leon’s … IF Leon drops to 55 Points next year, he falls in with this group of overpaid; but Leon hasn’t fallen yet .. and may not ..

    Those are either UFA contracts, or third RFA contracts, with fewer remaining RFA years.

    If the going rate for Johansen and Kuznetsov is around 8 million for the UFA years of the contract, that means that Draisatl is being paid much, much, more than they are for the comparable years and hence should play much, much, better than them. If Draisatl puts up similar performance to Kuznetsov that doesn’t mean he is overpaid by .5 million, it means he is overpaid by, say, 2 million.

    UFA contracts are often terrible. That Draisatl’s contract is going to be better than Spezza means nothing, since his RFA status should have guaranteed that it was better than almost any UFA contract.

    If Draisatl was a UFA, or close to a UFA, 8.5 million would be a real risk, but an understandable one. However Draisatl, wasn’t a UFA, he was a RFA with five years until free agency, and under those circumstances 8.5 M is still a real risk but an entirely unnecessary one, coupled with wasted salary space that will be useful over the next few years to retain important players, be it Nurse, or Benning ,or Strome, or Maroon, or Talbot, or whomever. This contract is going to cost Chiarelli good players.

  118. Professor Q says:

    jtblack,

    Maybe. It depends if they maintain their increasing pace or not, and their roles on their teams.

    I think Toronto might actually scrape out and get Marner and Nylander on Scheifele-esque deals that might pay out later on when they boom. But maybe they’re paid $6.5-7.5 with Matthews getting $9-11?

    I don’t think Toronto will Toronto and overpay Matthews to McDavid levels. But they could surprise us all.

  119. JustWatt says:

    N64,

    Yeah, alright. That’s a fair point. I kinda think that Woodguy’s $7.5 x 8 AAV by tacking on two $10 UFA seasons number was meant as an extreme example, the highest stretch that you could make. I personally think it is a stretch and so I still see 8 x 8 as a stretch but your point is well made.

  120. treevojo says:

    Cassandra: 74 points would be a major disappointment.Given his prior contract status he is being paid to be a superstar.He needs to be in the top 3 in scoring for the contract to break even.Year after Year.

    That’s what he is being paid for.

    Back with a bang!

    Typical even if I am close to being wrong I am still right statement.

    Beautiful to see.

  121. Kinger_Oil.redux says:

    Cassandra,

    – Great post LT!

    – how was your weekend?

    – Awesome to have such notoriety. Must have been a hell of a bender

    * darn georges beat me to it!

  122. Woodguy v2.0 says:

    Chachi: Only one of those guys I would consider trading Drai for is MacKinnon and only because of the contract. Scheifele maybe, but he’s RNH bad at faceoffs and is not going to shoot 20% every year. I know you love Barkov, but he hasn’t come close to playing a full season and that matters. And Monahan? Really? When Gaudreau goes to Philadelphia does Monahan put up 50 points a season?

    Re: Monahan

    Players to score 85+ goals in the last 3 seasons:

    Alex Ovechkin 136
    Vladimir Tarasenko 116
    Sidney Crosby 108
    Patrick Kane 107
    Joe Pavelski 104
    Jamie Benn 102
    Max Pacioretty 102
    Brad Marchand 100
    Nikita Kucherov 99
    John Tavares 99
    Tyler Seguin 96
    Wayne Simmonds 91
    Filip Forsberg 90
    Evgeni Malkin 88
    Steven Stamkos 88
    Corey Perry 86
    Sean Monahan 85

    I like Monahan fine and Drai more but that extra $2.1 is a big swing

  123. Bank Shot says:

    Pastrnak contract definitely makes the Draisaitl contract look worse.

    The Oilers really need Draisaitl to take the a step into superstar territory for this contract to look good.

    We pray.

  124. jtblack says:

    Woodguy v2.0,

    Kucherov for the Rocket Richard this year!

  125. Kinger_Oil.redux says:

    Woodguy v2.0,

    – inflation adjusted: drai >= malkin

    – inflation adjusted mcd + drai => Crosby + mallkin

    – that’s my opinion of course but that’s the comp and I have no doubt it was the oil organization’s opinion

    -Chia sure he will get the blame if it doesn’t work out but he wasn’t writing those cheques without buy in from the whole management and ownership group.

  126. treevojo says:

    http://www.tsn.ca/nhl/video/tkachuk-playoff-loss-still-stings%7E1208478

    After taking a peak at this video I have come to the conclusion that if Tkachuck plays his cards right he could rival a younger jagr for some truly wicked ass hair.

  127. Lowetide says:

    Woodguy v2.0: I mentioned Talbotand Klef the other day.

    Forgot them today.

    Well, today they’re righthanded. It’ll be better tomorrow when they’re lefthanded.

  128. Bank Shot says:

    Kinger_Oil.redux:

    -Chia sure he will get the blame if it doesn’t work out but he wasn’t writing those cheques without buy in from the whole management and ownership group.

    That’s what I’m afraid of. Still lots of hangers on from the previous regime including Lowe/MacT and Howson.

  129. Professor Q says:

    Lowetide: Well, today they’re righthanded. It’ll be better tomorrow when they’re lefthanded.

    Is this an offhanded comment?

  130. Chachi says:

    Woodguy v2.0: Re: Monahan

    Players to score 85+ goals in the last 3 seasons:

    Alex Ovechkin136
    Vladimir Tarasenko116
    Sidney Crosby108
    Patrick Kane107
    Joe Pavelski104
    Jamie Benn102
    Max Pacioretty102
    Brad Marchand100
    Nikita Kucherov99
    John Tavares99
    Tyler Seguin96
    Wayne Simmonds91
    Filip Forsberg90
    Evgeni Malkin88
    Steven Stamkos88
    Corey Perry86
    Sean Monahan85

    I like Monahan fine and Drai more but that extra $2.1 is a big swing

    That is laudable for sure. The Flames stench is definitely at work colouring my view of the player. Didn’t know he only signed a 7 year contract. Would still not trade Leon for him. As an aside, how great has Wayne Simmonds been for Philadelphia at a 4 million dollar cap hit! Hopefully he will still be there when Gaudreau gets to Philly!

  131. Younger Oil says:

    Out of curiosity, of all the players in the league with a cap hit of $8M or more:

    Toews
    Kane
    Ovechkin
    Kopitar
    Benn
    Malkin
    Subban
    Crosby
    Perry
    Stamkos
    Lunquist
    Giroux
    Voracek
    Getzlaf
    Burns
    Thornton
    Johansen

    How many would you trade for Draisaitl one for one? I’d say two or three.

    Obviously the fact that most of Draisaitl’s years are RFA years isn’t a small issue, but last year he showed that he is arguably a Top 20 NHL player in a contract year. Those players don’t grow on trees, and most of the time when you trade away a player like that, you lose the trade.

    He has also showed that he can stay healthy for a long period of time. That is also valuable.

    The Lucic and Russell contracts are far, FAR more damaging than Draisaitl’s contract will ever be. Yes, every penny counts in the cap era, but signing multiple declining veterans with NMC’s at a high cost for more than two years is something that jeopardizes a potential dynasty. Signing a young superstar for maximum term for $750k more than you should is not.

  132. Oilers8833 says:

    Honestly I’m not sure why people are so bent out of shape with Leon’s deal. I think with salary cap inflation (even a modest amount) Leon’s contract isn’t what is going to stop us from being competitive or keeping people on this roster……the correct answer is Russell and Lucic. Those are the contracts everyone should be bent out of shape.

    Did we pay full price for Leon absolutely, but for a group of fans to be as pissed off as we seem to be our memories are short when we couldn’t afford to keep anyone of Leon’s stature……see…..Doug Weight, Bill Guerin, Ryan Smyth (because of 100k difference), Cujo….shit Wayne Gretzky.

    It bugs me to see how jaded as a fan base we have become because of the decade of darkness. When you get angry about Leon’s contract take a deap cleansing breath and think of two words CONNOR MCDAVID and step away from the goddamn bridge.

  133. Woodguy v2.0 says:

    jtblack:
    Rather than comparing Drai to the best contracts out there, how about we look at some other contracts for comparison.

    Claude Giroux – $8.3 Mil 58 Points
    Ryan Johansen – $8 Mil61 Points
    Kuzenetsov – $7.8 Mil 59 Points
    Ryan O’Reilly – $7.5 Mil55 Points
    Jason Spezza – $7.5 Mil 50 Points
    David Krejci – $7.2 Mil54 Points

    All that I am saying is that there are certainly better contracts out there than Leon’s … no doubt about it; but there are also many other contracts that are much worse than Leon’s … IF Leon drops to 55 Points next year, he falls in with this group of overpaid; but Leon hasn’t fallen yet .. and may not ..

    Big difference in all those contracts is that they were either all UFA years or mostly UFA years.

    Peter giving Drai what he did for 5 (5!!!) RFA years is pretty bad.

  134. Woodguy v2.0 says:

    Chachi: That is laudable for sure. The Flames stench is definitely at work colouring my view of the player. Didn’t know he only signed a 7 year contract. Would stillnot trade Leon for him. As an aside, how great has Wayne Simmonds been for Philadelphia at a 4 million dollar cap hit! Hopefully he will still be there when Gaudreau gets to Philly!

    I bet Gaudreau gets traded for Hall.

    Hall’s gonna ask out and while Gaudreau is a Flyers fan like all good South Jersey boys, I bet they’d still like him to sell as a local boy.

  135. Woodguy v2.0 says:

    Kinger_Oil.redux,

    – inflation adjusted mcd + drai => Crosby + mallkin

    There is no world where Drai is a comp for Malkin other than salary.

    McDavid and Crosby are good comps.

  136. Chachi says:

    Woodguy v2.0: I bet Gaudreau gets traded for Hall.

    Hall’s gonna ask out and while Gaudreau is a Flyers fan like all good South Jersey boys, I bet they’d still like him to sell as a local boy.

    And then Eberle can sign in Calgary when his contract is up and they can probably bring Paajarvi and Omark in with very little trouble. They can reunite HOPE in Calgary, hopefully with exactly the same results.

  137. Woodguy v2.0 says:

    jtblack:
    Woodguy v2.0,

    Kucherov for the Rocket Richard this year!

    And Yz bridged him for $4.76

    Crazy.

  138. Chachi says:

    Woodguy v2.0: And Yz bridged him for $4.76

    Crazy.

    And Yz spent the savings on Dan Girardi! Glorious!

  139. OriginalPouzar says:

    Woodguy v2.0: Yes, its my opinion, which I’m pretty sure is correct.

    Which facts would prove it to you?

    Also,

    Pasternak scored 34 last year with Marchand and Bergeron.

    Maroon scored 27 with McDavid last year.

    If your contention is that M+B = 97 then logically Maroon would score 27 with M+B and therefore Maroon is only a slighly worse player than Pasternak.

    I don’t think that’s true.

    My logic is that, Bergeron is such a superior to Maroon that it makes up for much of the gap from McDavid to Marchand – not all, but much.

  140. GMB3 says:

    stush18: Really?

    Monohans an elite 2c, poor 1c. Kind of like nuge.
    Scheifle is quite a bit older, but props, he’s worked hard and fixed his skating.
    Barkov doesn’t have the production, but his contract is very nice.
    Mckinnon hasn’t been producing since his rookie season.

    I def would not trade for Mckinnon or monohan.

    Barkov is kopitar-ish, in that he produces great possession numbers but lacks that higher end scoring gear.

    Scheifle is a great contract. No arguement really.

    Barkov has produced similar numbers last two seasons, and is a better two way player at this stage from what I’ve read/seen. You’re overrating Drai is you think he is worth 1.25 mill more than Barkov. Homerism. He also has never played the wing for McDavid

  141. OriginalPouzar says:

    I really hope that Eichel doesn’t sign any time soon – I can’t keep reading post after post about the Drai contract every 4 days.

  142. John Chambers says:

    Woodguy v2.0: Big difference in all those contracts is that they were either all UFA years or mostly UFA years.

    Peter giving Drai what he did for 5 (5!!!) RFA years is pretty bad.

    I was thinking about it yesterday, specifically Chiarelli admitting that they had overpaid.

    Hypothetically, what if, say, the Canucks had tendered a 7-yr $70M offer sheet to Drai’s agent? The agent and Drai are flattered but perfer to remain Oilers. The Oilers are countering with $7M x 7, thereby leaving $21M on the table.

    Ultimately they decide to split it in the middle, with Drai effectively taking a $1.5M discount to stay with the team.

    Ergo, an offer sheet wasn’t signed, but it was the cause of having inflated Drai’s salary.

  143. Woodguy v2.0 says:

    N64,

    If Woodguy concedes 8 x 7.5 for a comparable F who won’t isn’t a natural C and Chia concedes 8 X 8.5 is above comparable that leaves some room for a 8 x 8 being fair comp based value for the Centre.

    The $7.5MM F is 2nd behind only Ovi in goals over the last 3 seasons.

    He’s also scored over 70pts 3 seasons in a row without a very good C to help run the line. (been mostly Lehtera, Steen and Statsny)

    That’s why he got ~$1MM more than Gaudreau, Monahan etc did.

    He’s in the same class as a Pat Kane.

    I stated that when Peter mentioned “more than his comparable because he’s a center”, Tarasenko was the only player who fit that description who came to mind.

    I don’t think its a great comparable.

  144. Chachi says:

    GMB3: Barkov has produced similar numbers last two seasons, and is a better two way player at this stage from what I’ve read/seen. You’re overrating Drai is you think he is worth 1.25 mill more than Barkov. Homerism. He also has never played the wing for McDavid

    Barkov’s also never been in my kitchen and his hockeydb photo looks like he’s smelling a fart.

    http://www.hockeydb.com/ihdb/stats/pdisplay.php?pid=145634

  145. Woodguy v2.0 says:

    Chachi: And Yz spent the savings on Dan Girardi! Glorious!

    His eye for Dmen reminds me of Chevy eyeing up goalies.

  146. Woodguy v2.0 says:

    John Chambers: I was thinking about it yesterday, specifically Chiarelli admitting that they had overpaid.

    Hypothetically, what if, say, the Canucks had tendered a 7-yr $70M offer sheet to Drai’s agent? The agent and Drai are flattered but perfer to remain Oilers. The Oilers are countering with $7M x 7, thereby leaving $21M on the table.

    Ultimately they decide to split it in the middle, with Drai effectively taking a $1.5M discount to stay with the team.

    Ergo, an offer sheet wasn’t signed, but it was the cause of having inflated Drai’s salary.

    Could be, but I doubt it as those things tend to get out (like when Peter was threatening BOS with one for Hamilton.

    I’d think they don’t always get out, but probably more often than not.

  147. Chachi says:

    Woodguy v2.0: His eye for Dmen reminds me of Chevy eyeing up goalies.

    When it is time to trade Russell, Yzerman is definitely the mark.

  148. Professor Q says:

    Woodguy v2.0,

    Kuznetzov and Johansen are Cs as well, however.

  149. oilersfan says:

    Can any of the many smart people on this site explain how HRR is calculated?

    I realize that the CDN $ going up is a big boon for the league, however, in the summer when there are no games, and we have had a big rally for the looney, would the league revenues go up ? Are the sportsnet annual hockey fees paid weekly or monthly throughout the year, thus helping HRR go up given the rising looney, or only during hockey season? Similarly, with seasons tickets, most have to be paid I believe before July 1 (not sure about that) , so if the season tickets are paid by the summer, would those go into the .82 looney we have now? or does HRR only accrue during the hockey season?

    thanks in advance if anybody knows the answer

  150. Woodguy v2.0 says:

    Professor Q:
    Woodguy v2.0,

    Kuznetzov and Johansen are Cs as well, however.

    I don’t understand the “however” here. What is that referring to?

  151. jasperavenue says:

    Draisaitl contract, the young man and his agent have put huge pressure on him, as everyone here identifies. If he handles it and performs Oilers have a star, and all will be well. If not, the fans in this city will drive him out.

    I’ve always thought that one of the criteria a GM should use when offering a contract is: Can I trade the player and this contract. So the risk with this contract appears to be – no one really knows.

  152. John Chambers says:

    Woodguy v2.0: Could be, but I doubt it as those things tend to get out (like when Peter was threatening BOS with one for Hamilton.

    I’d think they don’t always get out, but probably more often than not.

    Chiarelli, unlike MacT, is very guarded about information.

    He would have zero reason to suggest to the media that they were dealing with a potential predatory offer sheet, and perhaps addressed it in his conversation with McKenzie, suggesting merely that it was “more than they preferred to pay”

    It would be of no benefit to predatory GM (let’s say Jim Benning) to announce that an offer sheet has been tendered, and no benefit to Drai’s agent to suggest to the media that they’ve received an offer sheet unless talks had gone sideways with the Oilers.

    Chiarelli himself keeps an awfully even keel. Even back when he was dealing with Brian Burke’s bluster over the looming Kessel offer sheet it ultimately amounted to nothing more than media speculation even though there was likely substance to the Leafs’ threat.

  153. SwedishPoster says:

    We can compare Leon to players on other teams all we like but when in contract talks the main comparison will always be with other players on your team. Connor got a 12.5 million deal. Leon scored 77 % of what Connor did during regular season and outscored and imo outplayed him during the playoffs. If you’re to give Leon 7M that’s 56% of McDavid. That’s just not happening. Yeah you could say he put up those numbers in large part due to McDavid but you could really hurt the relationship with a player if you claim or even hint at him being a product of someone. These top players have a lot of pride and massive egos.
    Chia ended up paying 8.5, 68% of what Connor makes, not mirroring the difference, which is fair as it’s very clear who is the better player and the face of the franchise(and the league). There’s an argument the difference should be a bit bigger but when Connor got his contract I felt pretty sure there was no way Leon was getting under 8M(64% of 12.5).

    It was also clear they wanted to lock up Leon for eight years. Knowing you have both him and Connor locked up for the next eight seasons pretty much assure a somewhat competent offense for that period unless the rest of the forwards are complete plugs. Leon’s agent obviously knew this which gave them a strong negotiation point. He also knew Connor enjoys playing with Leon.

    I wanted Leon at a lower price tag and based on other guys around the league he’s overpaid. But I think it’s unfair to say he’s overpaid by 1.5 M while calling McDavids contract a bargain or hometown discount. Yeah I know Connor is in a different stratosphere and the most talented guy in hockey but when you’re in contract talks you compare actual results with the big item for forwards being points, in that regard Leon at 68% of McDavid isn’t crazy and if you weigh in playoff performance, which GMs and coaches certainly do right or not, it might even be fair.

    Whoever leaked that the negotiated deal for McDavid was at 13.25 and the early rumours that he was looking for maximum wage made that 12.5M deal look real pretty but before the rumours I recall a lot of people saying 10-11 was fair. I made an estimate based on Crosby’s old deals and I think it came in around 12M and remember a lot of people saying it felt a bit rich. The conspirasist in me think that the early rumours was placed to prime for the actual deal to look better…

    Full closure I think McDavid will be the runaway best player in the world starting this season and if he was paid 15M I’d shrugged and thought “I guess that’s fair” just saying from a negotiation standpoint it’s pretty hard to have Leon at 56% of McDavid. If I’m Leon’s agent I’m starting at 77% of McDavid and pushing his playoffs performance hard. And if I’m a GM and want Leon for eight years, which I would as I think you need at least two elite offensive players to become an annual contender and I think Leon will be elite going forward, I know I eventually would have to budge since elite offensive talents are tricky to come by. I don’t know, maybe I’m way off but I just feel this consensus that Leon is sooo overpaid and McDavid is on an absolute bargain of a deal showing how it’s all about winning for him seems a tad unfair.

    Just my very long 2 cent.

  154. Kinger_Oil.redux says:

    Woodguy v2.0:
    Kinger_Oil.redux,

    – inflation adjusted mcd + drai => Crosby + mallkin

    There is no world where Drai is a comp for Malkin other than salary.

    McDavid and Crosby are good comps.

    – Malkin’s salary as a % of cap when he signed was almost exactly the same as Drai.

    – Malkins 2nd full season was not as impressive as Drais

    – That’s the world I live in. I didn’t say today Drai > Malkin. Not sure what world you are referring to.

    – I think Drai will be > Malkin and their salaries as % of comp at time of their respective signing are similar. That’s what inflation adjusted means.

    – Also Drainlast year had more points than Malkin in any of his previous 5 seasons. So there’s that

    – I wouldn’t trade Drai for Malkin

  155. Chachi says:

    oilersfan:
    Can any of the many smart people on this site explain how HRR is calculated?

    I realize that the CDN $ going up is a big boon for the league, however, in the summer when there are no games, and we have had a big rally for the looney, would the league revenues go up ? Are the sportsnet annual hockey fees paid weekly or monthly throughout the year, thus helping HRR go up given the rising looney, or only during hockey season? Similarly, with seasons tickets, most have to be paid I believe before July 1 (not sure about that) , so if the season tickets are paid by the summer, would those go into the .82 looney we have now? or does HRR only accrue during the hockey season?

    thanks in advance if anybody knows the answer

    HRR is calculated for each League Year which means the period from July 1 of one calendar year to and including June 30 of the following calendar year.

    Canadian teams report their HRR for a League Year in Canadian dollars and then that HRR
    is converted to U.S. dollars using the average Canadian dollar to U.S. dollar exchange rate for that League Year, as determined by the Bank of Canada.

    So if you pay for your seasons tickets on July 1st the team books them as Canadian Dollars and on the following June 30th the amount is converted to U.S. Dollars based on the average exchange rate for that year.

    A higher Canadian dollar in July will boost the exchange rate used to account for game day revenue in November if the Canadian Dollar happens to dip in that month and vice versa.

  156. Jethro Tull says:

    Woodguy v2.0: There is no world where Drai is a comp for Malkin other than salary.

    Current accepted physics theories disagrees. There IS a world where Drai is a comp for Malkin. But they could both be ice-cream vendors or something.

  157. PunjabiOil says:

    Leon got overpaid 1-1.5M over this contract.

    It’s okay to have some overpayments, especially at the top end.

    The problem is, the Oilers don’t have too many value contracts. Klefbom and perhaps Larsson.

    Lucic’s contract will likely pose a problem. RNH may be too expensive for the role he fills. Talbot will get paid next contract, and given his age in 2 years, maybe the Oilers should move away. Russell contract is a problem. Sekera is being paid FMV and coming of an ACL surgery. Could see Maroon retained at near FMV.

    Nurse, Benning, Slepeshev all RFA’s.

    It’s a problem paying FMV, and inability to win trades. The other problem is not taking advantage of value free agents. Acres of cap space, an issue on defence, and Jagr/Franson sit on the sidelines.

    The problem is you develop a past.

  158. Professor Q says:

    Woodguy v2.0: I don’t understand the “however” here.What is that referring to?

    What do you mean?

    You mentioned comparables, but stressed that there were different positions involved. Those are two other contract comparables to Draisaitl in terms of peers and position and they are both more recent than Tarasenko (who is comparable but not the same position).

  159. Munny says:

    SwedishPoster: Just my very long 2 cent.

    It was a very astute too sense. Thank you for providing another view.

  160. digger50 says:

    SwedishPoster,

    Really, really good post thank you.

    You hit the nail on the head. Watch Leon and Connor together. No way in hell does Leon accept he is only 56% as good as Connor. Leon outplayed him all playoffs. I think Leon settled for being 70% as good as Connor….grudgingly. Friends for sure, But still competitors.

  161. leadfarmer says:

    For Draisat to get the “Eberle contract” which was 6mi signed when Salary cap was 60 million would have meant that Drai got 7.5 mil per season now that cap is 75 mil. Now Drai is a center and the contract is 2 years longer. In an ideal world Drai signs for that 7.5 mil per, but anything less than that would have been a huge steal for the team

  162. Chachi says:

    PunjabiOil: The problem is, the Oilers don’t have too many value contracts. Klefbom and perhaps Larsson.

    If you aren’t willing to call Maroon both a trade that was won and a value contract your bias is showing.

  163. fifthcartel says:

    Chiarelli got absolutely hosed with the Draisaitl contract.

    He played with 97, wasn’t a full time center, and paid the price for a hot playoffs.

    Draisaitl’s deal only covers 1 more UFA than Pastrnak. $8.5 million for 5 RFA years is pretty bad.

    I like the player, but man, Chiarelli just pays a premium everywhere. Eventually these things add up and cost you later.

  164. jake70 says:

    SwedishPoster:
    Whoever leaked that the negotiated deal for McDavid was at 13.25 and the early rumours that he was looking for maximum wage made that 12.5M deal look real pretty but before the rumours I recall a lot of people saying 10-11 was fair. I made an estimate based on Crosby’s old deals and I think it came in around 12M and remember a lot of people saying it felt a bit rich. The conspirasist in me think that the early rumours was placed to prime for the actual deal to look better

    Elliot Friedman hosted PTS Monday night. A caller from Edmonton in the first hour ..Jenkins was his name….asked about this. Friedman’s take was that the McDavid ask was in fact the 13.25 and he got a little taken aback by the reaction to the leaked number (too high), and took less….ie …the original number was not placed. That was Friedman’s opinion anyway.

  165. Woodguy v2.0 says:

    Kinger_Oil.redux: – Malkin’s salary as a % of cap when he signed was almost exactly the same as Drai.

    – Malkins 2nd full season was not as impressive as Drais

    – That’s the world I live in. I didn’t say today Drai > Malkin. Not sure what world you are referring to.

    – I think Drai will be > Malkin and their salaries as % of comp at time oftheir respective signing are similar. That’s what inflation adjusted means.

    – Also Drainlast year had more points than Malkin in any of his previous 5 seasons.So there’s that

    – I wouldn’t trade Drai for Malkin

    Malkin had 106 pts in his 2nd NHL season. That’s less impressive than 77pts?

    Also,

    Malkin’s rookie year was his draft + 3 due to the lockout.

    It’s always best to compare “age years”

    Malkin was 20 in his first NHL season, Drai was 20 in 15/16.

    20 year season
    Drai 72gp 51pts
    Malkin 78gp 85pts

    21 year season
    Drai 82gp 77pts
    Malkin 82gp 106pts

    It’s not a good comp.

  166. Georges says:

    Woodguy v2.0: Malkin had 106 pts in his 2nd NHL season. That’s less impressive than 77pts?

    Also,

    Malkin’s rookie year was his draft + 3 due to the lockout.

    It’s always best to compare “age years”

    Malkin was 20 in his first NHL season, Drai was 20 in 15/16.

    20 year season
    Drai 72gp 51pts
    Malkin 78gp 85pts

    21 year season
    Drai 82gp 77pts
    Malkin 82gp 106pts

    It’s not a good comp.

    Sigh. It really isn’t.

    Even when you control for different levels of overall scoring in those years.

    Here’s the ratio of Malkin’s and Drai’s points total divided by the points total for the median forwards in those years:

    20 year season
    Drai 3.4
    Malkin 4.5

    21 year season
    Drai 4.8
    Malkin 6.2

    Since 1980-81, a select few have managed to get at least 6 times the number of points scored by the median forward in a given season. Malkin managed to do it 3 times in his early career. Here are some other names on that elite list (in the order of their first appearance in the top 50):

    Mario
    Wayne
    Steve
    Bernie
    Jaromir
    Evgeni
    Brett
    Kevin
    Pat
    Adam
    Patrick
    Joe
    Ron
    Henrik
    Steven
    Denis
    Peter
    Sidney
    Alex
    Rob
    Eric
    Teemu
    Luc
    Mark
    Mark
    Claude
    Pierre

    (Connor hit 6.25 last year, not enough to crack the top 50.)

    Bonus points for the 3 defensemen who hit the magic 6.0:

    Paul
    Brian
    Al

  167. Chachi says:

    Woodguy v2.0: Malkin had 106 pts in his 2nd NHL season. That’s less impressive than 77pts?

    Also,

    Malkin’s rookie year was his draft + 3 due to the lockout.

    It’s always best to compare “age years”

    Malkin was 20 in his first NHL season, Drai was 20 in 15/16.

    20 year season
    Drai 72gp 51pts
    Malkin 78gp 85pts

    21 year season
    Drai 82gp 77pts
    Malkin 82gp 106pts

    It’s not a good comp.

    Not a good comp, but much better than it looks when you look at even strength scoring. Malkin had 40 points on the powerplay his first two seasons and the checking in the NHL has tightened up since then given that obstruction is not called like it used to be. I am disregarding points on the PP because I have been told only 5v5 scoring matters…

  168. Woodguy v2.0 says:

    Chachi: Not a good comp, but much better than it looks when you look at even strength scoring. Malkin had 40 points on the powerplay his first two seasons and the checking in the NHL has tightened up since then given that obstruction is not called like it used to be. I am disregarding points on the PP because I have been told only 5v5 scoring matters…

    No one says “only 5v5 scoring matters”

    5v5 scoring and 5v4 scoring need to be analyzed separately due to the huge coaching and opportunity influence on 5v4 scoring.

    Not all players get the same opportunity 5v4 or play in a good system.

    Some very good offensive players play in poor 5v4 set ups and some meh offensive players are put into great positions on good powerplays.

    Lucic’s 5v4 scoring history is a perfect object lesson for this.

    He was between 3.5 – 4.5 pts/60 5v4 for his career until last year where he was over 6 and top 10 in the NHL.

    Also,

    You’re right that looking at just 5v5 makes their 20 year old years much closer, but the 21 year old year isn’t that close

    20 yr
    Malkin 45 5v5pts in 78 games
    Draisaitl 42 5v5 pts in 72 games

    21 yr
    Malkin 66 5v5 points in 82 games
    Draisaitl 50 5v5 points in 82 games

    Malkin followed that up with 72 5v5 points (and 41 PP points) in his 22 year old year.

    We’ll see where Drai ends up.

  169. Chachi says:

    Woodguy v2.0: Quote

    So burning a whole day on OMG Pouliot=Lucic based on 5V5/60 was just to waste everyone’s time?
    Also, you might have noticed I started my post with “not a good comp”. I agree with you on that.

  170. Woodguy v2.0 says:

    Chachi: So burning a whole day on OMG Pouliot=Lucic based on 5V5/60 was just to waste everyone’s time?
    Also, you might have noticed I started my post with “not a good comp”. I agree with you on that.

    Why would comparing two players based on 5v5 pts/60 be a waste of time?

    Also,

    I know you agreed.

    What led you to think I didn’t?

  171. Chachi says:

    Woodguy v2.0: Why would comparing two players based on 5v5 pts/60 be a waste of time?
    Also,
    I know you agreed.
    What led you to think I didn’t?

    It was a terrible take. The worst you’ve ever had. Tone is difficult to suss out online sometimes – I have perceived yours of late to be overwhelmingly patronizing. Also, what I think about your tone doesn’t matter so you be you.

  172. Woodguy v2.0 says:

    Chachi: It was a terrible take. The worst you’ve ever had. Tone is difficult to suss out online sometimes – I have perceived yours of late to be overwhelmingly patronizing.

    I try to not have tone.

    Just facts.

    I’m generally amused at the wide range of tones that get attributed to me.

    Patronizing is a new one though.

    When I’m not sure about things I ask questions.

    I think often those questions are not read in a questioning voice, but a sarcastic or patronizing voice.

    Those are not correct voices with which to read my questions.

    They are all sincere requests for clarity.

    Also,

    Pouliot had 8 5v5 goals in 735 min away from McDavid last year. (0.65/60)

    Lucic had 4 5v5 toals in 683 min away from McDavid last year (0.35/60)

  173. Chachi says:

    Woodguy v2.0: I try to not have tone.

    Just facts.

    I’m generally amused at the wide range of tones that get attributed to me.

    Patronizing is a new one though.

    When I’m not sure about things I ask questions.

    I think often those questions are not read in a questioning voice, but a sarcastic or patronizing voice.

    Those are not correct voices with which to read my questions.

    They are all sincere requests for clarity.

    Also,

    Pouliot had 8 5v5 goals in 735 min away from McDavid last year. (0.65/60)

    Lucic had 4 5v5 toals in 683 min away from McDavid last year (0.35/60)

    You asked me what led me to believe you disagreed with me. I answered.

    Good for Pouliot on his 8 goals.

    Who would you bet would have more 5v5 goals this year? I am guessing if you had to put money on it you would back Lucic and “the facts” would back up your choice. That is why the instant reaction to your Pouliot=Lucic post was mockery.

  174. Woodguy v2.0 says:

    Chachi,

    Ahhh, I understand now.

    I would bet on Pouliot scoring more 5v5 goals/TOI

    I would bet on Lucic scoring more 5v5 goals in total, but I bet its close.

    I propose two bets.

    1) 5v5 goals/60 straight up

    2) 5v5 total goals. I take Pouliot and get a handicap of 5 goals.

    You down?

  175. Chachi says:

    Woodguy v2.0:
    Chachi,

    Ahhh, I understand now.

    I would bet on Pouliot scoring more 5v5 goals/TOI

    I would bet on Lucic scoring more 5v5 goals in total, but I bet its close.

    I propose two bets.

    1) 5v5 goals/60 straight up

    2) 5v5 total goals.I take Pouliot and get a handicap of 5 goals.

    You down?

    Nope.
    1. 5v5 goals/60 is meaningless. We might as well be betting on what colour underwear they show up to the rink in.

    2. You think they are the same player basically. Why would I give you 5 goals?

  176. Woodguy v2.0 says:

    Chachi: Nope. You think they are the same player basically. Why would I give you 5 goals?

    Georges convinced me that Pouliot is chronic in terms of missing games due to injury and that gp matters.

    That’s why I’d want a handicap on total goals.

    I’d go straight up on goals/60 5v5 though because I believe they produce very similar 5v5 offence/60, but Lucic plays more games.

  177. Chachi says:

    Woodguy v2.0: Georges convinced me that Pouliot is chronic in terms of missing games due to injury and that gp matters.

    That’s why I’d want a handicap on total goals.

    I’d go straight up on goals/60 5v5 though because I believe they produce very similar 5v5 offence/60, but Lucic plays more games.

    So you believe Pouliot does not = Lucic now?

  178. Woodguy v2.0 says:

    Chachi: So you believe Pouliot does not = Lucic now?

    In terms of gp, no.

    In terms of 5v5 production / TOI I believe they are very similar.

    Similar enough to bet on it even though Lucic is probably playing with Drai all year and Pouliot is probably playing 4th line.

    Also,

    I can’t remember every typing “=”

    Can you link me to what I wrote that made you come to that conclusion?

  179. Chachi says:

    Woodguy v2.0: In terms of gp, no.

    In terms of 5v5 production / TOI I believe they are very similar.

    Similar enough to bet on it even though Lucic is probably playing with Drai all year and Pouliot is probably playing 4th line.

    Also,

    I can’t remember every typing “=”

    Can you link me to what I wrote that made you come to that conclusion?

    This is what you wrote:

    “WOODGUY V2.0 says:
    September 10, 2017 at 8:02 pm
    5v5 pts/gm
    2014/15
    Lucic 0.37
    Pouliot 0.42
    2015/16
    Lucic 0.41
    Pouliot 0.44
    2016/17
    Lucic 0.29
    Pouliot 0.21
    One’s a failed UFA signing at $4/yr who needed to be bought out.
    The other costs $6/yr is signed for 6 more years.”

    What conclusion were you trying to lead people to by posting that?

    I’d bet on 5v5 goals/60, but on the condition that Pouliot has to play as many games as Lucic. That is the only circumstance in which that would be a meaningful comparison, although even then Lucic would be playing against better competition so it’s a useless stat to look at.

  180. Woodguy v2.0 says:

    Chachi: This is what you wrote:

    “WOODGUY V2.0 says:
    September 10, 2017 at 8:02 pm
    5v5 pts/gm
    2014/15
    Lucic 0.37
    Pouliot 0.42
    2015/16
    Lucic 0.41
    Pouliot 0.44
    2016/17
    Lucic 0.29
    Pouliot 0.21
    One’s a failed UFA signing at $4/yr who needed to be bought out.
    The other costs $6/yr is signed for 6 more years.”

    What conclusion were you trying to lead people to by posting that?

    I’d bet on 5v5 goals/60, but on the condition that Pouliot has to play as many games as Lucic. That is the only circumstance in which that would be a meaningful comparison.

    What conclusion?

    I wrote that later in the thread:

    My whole point was that line between “failed FA signing that needed to bought out” and a $6MM FA signing with 6 years left is much thinner than most acknowledge.

    The hyprocrisy I’m trying to point out is when the same people saying Pouliot is a “failed UFA signging” who at the same time think Lucic is great.
    If all the difference between the two at 5v5 is games played then there’s a massive disconnect between that line of thinking and reality

    Also,

    I’m not taking any bet on Pouliot playing as many games as Lucic.

    His act has got him benched or scratched before and his gp/season isn’t good the last 3 years and he isn’t getting younger.

    If you won’t take a bet on goals/60 when Lucic is playing wtih Drai and Pou is 4th line or at best 3rd on BUF then why would you be so adamant that I’m an idiot for suggesting they are similar?

    I honestly find that strange and thought anyone who thinks Lucic is much better would jump at the bet.

    Christ, even I think I’m taking the worst of it, but I like to bet.

    I’d be open to “Pou must play at least 50 games to qualify” so he doesn’t ride lightning on an uber-small sample.

  181. Chachi says:

    Woodguy v2.0: What conclusion?

    I wrote that later in the thread:

    My whole point was that line between “failed FA signing that needed to bought out” and a $6MM FA signing with 6 years left is much thinner than most acknowledge.

    The hyprocrisy I’m trying to point out is when the same people saying Pouliot is a “failed UFA signging” who at the same time think Lucic is great.
    If all the difference between the two at 5v5 is games played then there’s a massive disconnect between that line of thinking and reality

    Also,

    I’m not taking any bet on Pouliot playing as many games as Lucic.

    His act has got him benched or scratched before and his gp/season isn’t good the last 3 years and he isn’t getting younger.

    If you won’t take a bet on goals/60 when Lucic is playing wtih Drai and Pou is 4th line or at best 3rd on BUF then why would you be so adamant that I’m an idiot for suggesting they are similar?

    I honestly find that strange and thought anyone who thinks Lucic is much better would jump at the bet.

    Christ, even I think I’m taking the worst of it, but I like to bet.

    I’d be open to “Pou must play at least 50 games to qualify” so he doesn’t ride lightning on an uber-small sample.

    I don’t like to bet. Don’t like it when I lose, don’t like it when I win. I bet Eberle wouldn’t score 30 last year and really felt no joy in easily winning that bet. I’d humour you on 5v5 goals straight up, but I am not giving you any goals. You had the bad take, not me. Maybe Pouliot stays healthy and has a breakout season at 30 years old playing against other 3rd and 4th lines. Stranger things have happened.

    My ultimate point was that it was ridiculous to compare the two players using pts/60 given that Pouliot can’t stay in a lineup. I believe your argument that comparing the two players based on pts/60 is disingenuous because you are better than that. I thought Lucic had a horrible season last year 5v5 as did everyone else who watched him play including the GM, coach and the player himself. You didn’t expose any great hypocrisy; you didn’t prove anything.

  182. Woodguy v2.0 says:

    Chachi: I don’t like to bet. Don’t like it when I lose, don’t like it when I win. I bet Eberle wouldn’t score 30 last year and really felt no joy in easily winning that bet. I’d humour you on 5v5 goals straight up, but I am not giving you any goals. You had the bad take, not me.Maybe Pouliot stays healthy and has a breakout season at 30 years old playing against other 3rd and 4th lines. Stranger things have happened.

    My ultimate point was that it was ridiculous to compare the two players using pts/60 given that Pouliot can’t stay in a lineup. I believe your argument that comparing the two players based on pts/60 is disingenuous because you are better than that. I thought Lucic had a horrible season last year 5v5 as did everyone else who watched him play including the GM, coach and the player himself. You didn’t expose any great hypocrisy; you didn’t prove anything.

    My twitter feed and many poster disagree with you.

    Lucic had a great year (just look at his points) and was a key reason they won a round in the playoffs because of his leadership and ability to keep the opposition from hurting Oilers.

    Comparing player’s 5v5 contributions isn’t disingenuous.

    In this case where there is a 64gp difference over 3 years I conceded that gp is important.

    Usually the gp evens out between players so I ignore it because it amounts to cherry picking.

    In this case I agree now that it’s relevant as I was swayed by the arguments that it is relevant.

    3 years of gp is a big enough sample to not expect Pou to play a full year.

  183. Chachi says:

    Woodguy v2.0: My twitter feed and many poster disagree with you.

    Lucic had a great year (just look at his points) and was a key reason they won a round in the playoffs because of his leadership and ability to keep the opposition from hurting Oilers.

    Comparing player’s 5v5 contributions isn’t disingenuous.

    In this case where there is a 64gp difference over 3 years I conceded that gp is important.

    Usually the gp evens out between players so I ignore it because it amounts to cherry picking.

    In this case I agree now that it’s relevant as I was swayed by the arguments that it is relevant.

    3 years of gp is a big enough sample to not expect Pou to play a full year.

    I am sorry you are subjected to stupidity on twitter. You are a busy guy doing good work and you don’t deserve to have your time wasted by mouth breathers (ironic statement coming from me). I use twitter to look at information from official sources (teams and team insiders like Bob Stauffer) otherwise I find it is a freaking wasteland. I do respect your opinion on most things, but this one really stood out as not being up to your usual caliber. I appreciate that you have acknowledged that between these two players games played matters, however I don’t think we are ever going to agree on the significance of pts/60 between these two players. I am ok with that. I’ll stop bringing it up. Feel free to rub my nose in it if Pouliot somehow lights it up in Buffalo. He lined up with Reinhart as his centre today apparently.

  184. Woodguy v2.0 says:

    Chachi: I am sorry you are subjected to stupidity on twitter. You are a busy guy doing good work and you don’t deserve to have your time wasted by mouth breathers (ironic statement coming from me). I use twitter to look at information from official sources (teams and team insiders like Bob Stauffer) otherwise I find it is a freaking wasteland. I do respect your opinion on most things, but this one really stood out as not being up to your usual caliber. I appreciate that you have acknowledged that between these two players games played matters, however I don’t think we are ever going to agree on the significance of pts/60 between these two players. I am ok with that. I’ll stop bringing it up. Feel free to rub my nose in it if Pouliot somehow lights it up in Buffalo. He lined up with Reinhart as his centre today apparently.

    I appreciate the kind words.

    Being visible due to being on LT’s show and occasionally on Bob’s has certainly been a two edged sword.

    The ego part likes the attention, but a lot of the attention is quite negative, but I guess that’s the trade off.

    I often use LT’s blog as a release value as twitter isn’t good at long form.

    Also,

    I would never rub your nose in it.*

    *It would actually take me years to stop bringing it up

  185. Chachi says:

    Woodguy v2.0:

    I would never rub your nose in it.*

    *It would actually take me years to stop bringing it up

    Ha! I would do the same in your position.

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