HANDS ACROSS THE WATER

Filip Berglund played in his first SHL (Sweden’s top league) game today and by math and by eye it looks like he is off to a very good start to his season.

BERGLUND’S SHL CAREER

  • The key number here is time on ice, Berglund is playing a regular shift and clearly increasing his role over one year ago. It’s just one game, but looks like the coach valued what he brought.
  • The boxcars have been shy during his SHL career, but the Vollman NHL equivalency for SHL (.58) had  his NHLE at 82gp, 0-9-9 a year ago. Considering Berglund was playing 9.5 minutes a night, seems reasonable his projection might be around 20 points by year’s end.

SWEDISH POSTER UPDATE

  • Swedish Poster: “Filip Berglund played 16 minutes on the third pairing in Skellefteås first SHL game of the season. They won 2-1 and he was -1. The consensus seems to be that while last season he looked like a young player trying to keep up with the big boys, this season he looks like an actual real live SHL player, not dominant but looking like he belongs. Which is progress and a good point to start, hopefully we can see some in season development when he feels more comfortable.”
  • More Swedish Poster: “He could have done a better job on the GA. Did well defending a zone entry with a Larssonesque hip check but ended up on the wrong side of the guy scoring the goal on a lucky bounce, not a big mistake but he should have gotten back in a better position after his first hit. Still a minor thing.”

BERGLUND’S IMPORTANCE

Filip Berglund occupies an important spot in the Oilers prospect pool, for a few reasons. He’s a righty two-way defenseman, who may arrive with enough offensive and defensive acumen to play a top 4D role someday. He was chosen in the third round with two other defenders (Markus Niemelainen, Matthew Cairns) and frankly both men have mixed arrows so far in their post-draft careers.

Finally, Berglund will probably arrive next fall and play in Bakersfield beginning 2018-19. He’ll be 21 at that time and may be closer to NHL-ready than Caleb Jones and Ethan Bear are now. I expect Peter Chiarelli is going to trade some of these defensive prospects soon, maybe even in the coming weeks before this season. Berglund’s ability to push up as a prospect is a badly needed good sign.

It’s one game, but Berglund’s back story suggested a step forward was likely. We will track progress all winter, early signs are positive.

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60 Responses to "HANDS ACROSS THE WATER"

  1. OriginalPouzar says:

    I saw this on twitter a little while from “Edmonton Prospect Watch” – great to see the TOI up, that’s huge.

    Hopefully he continues to earn the extra time and has some up arrows for the year.

  2. OriginalPouzar says:

    How does he compare to Willie Lagesson who I saw very good over the last 10 days or so?

    I assume, Willie is the more material prospect but maybe I’m wrong?

  3. BornInAGretzkyJersey says:

    I saw Laggesson good too, was a nice surprise. I think to compare the two, we’d have to adjust for age, so as to allow for their spots on their respective development curves.

  4. Lowetide says:

    Berglund has more offensive upside than Lagesson, I had Berglund at No. 15 (Lagesson No. 21) on the summer list

    http://lowetide.ca/2017/06/25/top-20-prospects-summer-2017/

  5. OriginalPouzar says:

    Lowetide:
    Berglund has more offensive upside than Lagesson, I had Berglund at No. 15 (Lagesson No. 21) on the summer list

    http://lowetide.ca/2017/06/25/top-20-prospects-summer-2017/

    Thanks – does Lagesson’s play throughout the camps change anything for you?

  6. godot10 says:

    Catching up on yesterday’s game day thread and today’s morning post and comments.

    Two words, folks.

    Nino Niederreiter.

    Sometimes European forwards take time.

    Now I don’t particularly like how the Oilers handled Puljujarvi last year, particularly after they sent him down to Bakersfield and didn’t staple him to Anton Lander. But it is far too early to doubt the prospect.

    Staple him to Nugent-Hopkins and Jokinen like Matt Douchebag was stapled to Backlund and Frolik.

    If they send him to Bakersfield till the new year, put him in a stable situation there.

  7. godot10 says:

    We can actually have an interesting pool this year.

    Which ex-Oiler will win an Olympic gold medal?
    Which will win an Olympic silver medal?
    Which will win a bronze?

    Lander, Omark (Sweden), Hartikainen, Rajala (Finland) Belov (Russia), Musil (Czech Republic), Arcobello (USA), Pouliot, Brule, etc (Canada)

  8. Centre of attention says:

    Joshua Marshall‏
    @JMarshyBosco93
    .@EdmontonOilers have reached out to @GoldenKnights about Defenceman Colin Miller sounds like a trade could be done before camp ends #Oilers

    I mean, I don’t know about the quality of the source (has he ever actually had a scoop?) but this would be pretty ideal.

    There were rumblings the Oilers were looking at Franson, too. I highly doubt Chiarelli is done w/ the d-core, but he’s playing down rumored interest in interviews because he is sick of looking desperate. If you look like you’re fine with what you have rather than desperate to make a deal, the seller is then put in a position of pressure depending on the context of the deal.

  9. Lowetide says:

    OriginalPouzar: Thanks – does Lagesson’s play throughout the camps change anything for you?

    I never trust small sample sizes. I used to, but was proven wrong many many times.

  10. Jethro Tull says:

    3 for 1! Thanks LT, for the Lowetide Unicorn of three articles in one day! 🎶 Music!

  11. OriginalPouzar says:

    godot10:
    We can actually have an interesting pool this year.

    Which ex-Oiler will win an Olympic gold medal?
    Which will win an Olympic silver medal?
    Which will win a bronze?

    Lander, Omark (Sweden), Hartikainen, Rajala (Finland) Belov (Russia), Musil (Czech Republic), Arcobello (USA), Pouliot, Brule, etc (Canada)

    Scrivens
    Potentially Taylor Beck

  12. OriginalPouzar says:

    Centre of attention:
    Joshua Marshall‏
    @JMarshyBosco93
    .@EdmontonOilers have reached out to @GoldenKnights about Defenceman Colin Miller sounds like a trade could be done before camp ends #Oilers

    I mean, I don’t know about the quality of the source (has he ever actually had a scoop?) but this would be pretty ideal.

    There were rumblings the Oilers were looking at Franson, too. I highly doubt Chiarelli is donew/ the d-core, but he’s playing down rumored interest in interviews because he is sick of looking desperate. If you look like you’re fine with what you have rather than desperate to make a deal, the seller is then put in a position of pressure depending on the context of the deal.

    This was from a few days ago, right?

    I saw this and the responses. I believe this guy has spouted much crap that did not come to fruition.

  13. jp says:

    OriginalPouzar,

    Did you notice they were both picked 91st overall?

    Will be a lot easier to compare them both playing in the same league this year. Hopefully both getting quality TOI.

  14. Munny says:

    LT said…

    Finally, Berglund will probably arrive next fall and play in Bakersfield beginning 2018-19. He’ll be 21 at that time and may be closer to NHL-ready than Caleb Jones and Ethan Bear are now.

    Jones and Bear blew me away last night with their confident play, They will both certainly be ahead of Berglund this time next year and for Berglund to get to where they are now, without having played in a N. American League would be remarkable, and pretty unlikely.

  15. Lowetide says:

    Munny:
    LT said…

    Finally, Berglund will probably arrive next fall and play in Bakersfield beginning 2018-19. He’ll be 21 at that time and may be closer to NHL-ready than Caleb Jones and Ethan Bear are now.

    Jones and Bear blew me away last night with their confident play,They will both certainly be ahead of Berglund this time next year and for Berglund to get to where they are now, without having played in a N. American League would be remarkable, and pretty unlikely.

    Small sample sizes. Jones and Bear looked very good but will need some time in pro hockey. I think the SHL is a better league than the WHL, so another year in the SHL as a regular probably puts Berglund ahead of Jones and bear are now, which is what I stated.

  16. Munny says:

    I thought Kinger made a great point in the morning thread.

    The Oil are going to have play a true top pairing D instead of Top 4 committee-style D this season till Sekera is back and up to speed.

    Getting Klef the Bomb and Lar’s Son accustomed to the big minutes they’re going to need to eat up is uber important to early season success. Despite the superficial-strangeness of their TOI deployment last night, it could be a sneaky-smart move by the coach.

  17. leadfarmer says:

    Munny:
    I thought Kinger made a great point in the morning thread.

    The Oil are going to have play a true top pairing D instead of Top 4 committee-style D this season till Sekera is back and up to speed.

    Getting Klef the Bomb and Lar’s Son used to the big minutes they’re going to need to eat up is uber important to early season success.Despite the superficial-strangeness of their TOI deployment last night, it could be a sneaky-smart move by the coach.

    I’m guessing the plan was to give Larsson Klef the reigns with time. Sekera injury made that time now. Guessing they get 26 min a game but even when Sekera gets back they will have more ice time than last year

  18. Munny says:

    We haven’t had much financial market talk recently, but I think I should say that the present state of the US exchanges scares me. This Bull might have some more run in it… maybe a week, maybe 8 weeks, maybe as much as four months.

    But looking at sentiment, bullish consensus is now above where it was prior to the dotcom crash, ie extreme. Mutual funds saw record inflows this year and the general public is usually the last to the party and typically mark a sentiment top. Such extremes in complacency often precede big crashes and major bear markets.

    Hindenburg omens have been popping up since May, which means market correlation is dangerously high.

    True money supply growth (TMS-2) is nearing a 10 year low, and commercial/industrial loan growth is equally poor. There is nothing pumping the economy.

    Fewer and fewer stocks are participating in the SPX’s recent rallies. Happiness is extreme, but not widespread throughout the exchange, not good.

    So liquidity is tightening, sentiment is at extremes, internals are weak, and correlations are dangerous… plus a coming debt ceiling debate in a polarized US Gov and The Fed’s promise to soon begin quantitative tightening, further threatening liquidity.

    This market, like I said, could still run higher, and for a good while in the short term, but it also might not, and timing market tops is impossible and stupid, especially if, like most of us, you exist nowhere near the exit doors. If the bull market is not yet out of breath, it’s panting hard, so I’m out. (And buying at these expensive valuations truly is insane)

    This post isn’t intended to be investment advice, but if you haven’t thought much about your portfolio during this extended bull run, now’s a good time to give it a few minutes of thought. Or more.

    And if you’re expecting the average financial advisor to give you some solid counsel right now, please consider these words from the legendary Matt King of Citibank:

    Several told us they would rather lose lots of money in company with the rest of the market than underperform slightly in a continuing rally and then suffer a fall in assets under management as investors move elsewhere.”

    Just a heads up.

  19. Lowetide says:

    The Miller thing is interesting but he’s RH and the VGK have only two. Garrison more likely available but EDM doesn’t need a slow lefty.

  20. OilFire says:

    Munny,

    For those of us just starting to invest, what’s the best place to learn about all this stuff?

    Technically difficult and boring sources aren’t a problem for me, I’m a huge nerd.

  21. hunter1909 says:

    Munny:
    We haven’t had much financial market talk recently, but I think I should say that the present state of the US exchanges scares me. This Bull might have some more run in it… maybe a week, maybe 8 weeks, maybe as much as four months.

    But looking at sentiment, bullish consensus is now above where it was prior to the dotcom crash, ie extreme.Mutual funds saw record inflows this year and the general public is usually the last to the party and typically mark a sentiment top. Such extremes in complacency often precede big crashes and major bear markets.

    Hindenburg omens have been popping up since May, which means market correlation is dangerously high.

    True money supply growth (TMS-2) is nearing a 10 year low, and commercial/industrial loan growth is equally poor. There is nothing pumping the economy.

    Fewer and fewer stocks are participating in the SPX’s recent rallies. Happiness is extreme, but not widespread throughout the exchange, not good.

    So liquidity is tightening, sentiment is at extremes, internals are weak, and correlations are dangerous… plus a coming debt ceiling debate in a polarized US Gov and The Fed’s promise to soon begin quantitative tightening, further threatening liquidity.

    This market, like I said, could still run higher, and for a good while in the short term, but it also might not, and timing market tops is impossible and stupid, especially if, like most of us, you exist nowhere near the exit doors. If the bull market is not yet out of breath, it’s panting hard, so I’m out.(And buying at these expensive valuations truly is insane)

    This post isn’t intended to be investment advice, but if you haven’t thought much about your portfolio during this extended bull run, now’s a good time to give it a few minutes of thought. Or more.

    And if you’re expecting the average financial advisor to give you some solid counsel right now, please consider these words from the legendary Matt King of Citibank:

    Several told us they would rather lose lots of money in company with the rest of the market than underperform slightly in a continuing rally and then suffer a fall in assets under management as investors move elsewhere.”

    Just a heads up.

    I’m good – after buying 6 bottles each of 10 + 12 year old scotch.

  22. The Original JDî says:

    Lowetide: The Miller thing is interesting but he’s RH and the VGK have only two.

    But the Vegas could certainly use another chance at a lotto 1OV next june.

    #thiscouldgetugly

  23. adamjames says:

    Munny,

    I love seeing this sorta thing on this site. The Lowetide comments section is like a renaissance salon. Bankers, lawyers, poets and priests all sharing and contributing. An analytics revolution came out of these comment sections. What a beautiful place.

    And to throw my 2 cents in on the investment talk.. If you want to participate in the market but are afraid of the possibility of a major downturn, Dollar cost averaging into well diversified asset allocation product should hedge that a bit. It won’t prevent a decline in an already established portfolio, but if your time horizon suits holding on through a bear market, and you continue to regularly add to the funds, you lower the overall cost of the total portfolio. Better value.

  24. OriginalPouzar says:

    Looking forward to finding out the lineup for tomorrow night.

  25. Lloyd B. says:

    Munny:
    We haven’t had much financial market talk recently, but I think I should say that the present state of the US exchanges scares me. This Bull might have some more run in it… maybe a week, maybe 8 weeks, maybe as much as four months.

    But looking at sentiment, bullish consensus is now above where it was prior to the dotcom crash, ie extreme.Mutual funds saw record inflows this year and the general public is usually the last to the party and typically mark a sentiment top. Such extremes in complacency often precede big crashes and major bear markets.

    Hindenburg omens have been popping up since May, which means market correlation is dangerously high.

    True money supply growth (TMS-2) is nearing a 10 year low, and commercial/industrial loan growth is equally poor. There is nothing pumping the economy.

    Fewer and fewer stocks are participating in the SPX’s recent rallies. Happiness is extreme, but not widespread throughout the exchange, not good.

    So liquidity is tightening, sentiment is at extremes, internals are weak, and correlations are dangerous… plus a coming debt ceiling debate in a polarized US Gov and The Fed’s promise to soon begin quantitative tightening, further threatening liquidity.

    This market, like I said, could still run higher, and for a good while in the short term, but it also might not, and timing market tops is impossible and stupid, especially if, like most of us, you exist nowhere near the exit doors. If the bull market is not yet out of breath, it’s panting hard, so I’m out.(And buying at these expensive valuations truly is insane)

    This post isn’t intended to be investment advice, but if you haven’t thought much about your portfolio during this extended bull run, now’s a good time to give it a few minutes of thought. Or more.

    And if you’re expecting the average financial advisor to give you some solid counsel right now, please consider these words from the legendary Matt King of Citibank:

    Several told us they would rather lose lots of money in company with the rest of the market than underperform slightly in a continuing rally and then suffer a fall in assets under management as investors move elsewhere.”

    Just a heads up.

    Not to put you in a box, but is cash a good position to be in right now? Because I am.

  26. Lowetide says:

    OriginalPouzar:
    Looking forward to finding out the lineup for tomorrow night.

    It’ll probably be exclusively from the A list today, with all players who didn’t play last night (Russell, Benning, Jokinen) on the ice. Plus bubble men, so Caggiula, Puljujarvi and Yamamoto may all play RW with one of Kassian or Strome. That kind of thing.

  27. Lloyd B. says:

    Lowetide:
    The Miller thing is interesting but he’s RH and the VGK have only two. Garrison more likely available but EDM doesn’t need a slow lefty.

    So Miller … for Bear and Jones?

    Vegas gets two young strong prospects and Edmonton gets immediate help that fits the McDavid cluster.

    And we get the balance photo!

  28. Lowetide says:

    Lloyd B.: So Miller … for Bear and Jones?

    I can’t see that being the deal although one of them might be the deal, or Khaira or a pick.

  29. OriginalPouzar says:

    Lowetide: It’ll probably be exclusively from the A list today, with all players who didn’t play last night (Russell, Benning, Jokinen) on the ice. Plus bubble men, so Caggiula, Puljujarvi and Yamamoto may all play RW with one of Kassian or Strome. That kind of thing.

    I think in his interview this aft, coach mentioned that there will be a mix from the two groups but I may have misunderstood him.

  30. Southern Oil says:

    adamjames:
    Munny,

    I love seeing this sorta thing on this site. The Lowetide comments section is like a renaissance salon. Bankers, lawyers, poets and priests all sharing and contributing. An analytics revolution came out of these comment sections. What a beautiful place.

    And to throw my 2 cents in on the investment talk.. If you want to participate in the market but are afraid of the possibility of a major downturn, Dollar cost averaging into well diversified asset allocation product should hedge that a bit.It won’t prevent a decline in an already established portfolio, but if your time horizon suits holding on through a bear market, and you continue to regularly add to the funds, you lower the overall cost of the total portfolio. Better value.

    Sweet! Who wants to know about power transmission and conveyor belts? I can talk your ear off! LOL! Just giving the smarter folks around here a hard time. Love all the intelligent banter on this corner of the Al Gore (stealing that line from LT – hope that’s OK)

  31. Lloyd B. says:

    Lowetide: I can’t see that being the deal although one of them might be the deal, or Khaira or a pick.

    Chiarelli has shown he will overpay to get what he needs. He needs another NHL RHD. Miller fits the bill.

    Bear and Jones appear to be strong prospects … but are still prospects. Clears a spot on the 50 man list as well.

    Their development fits LVK timeline. A RHD coming up exactly when they need one.

    Benning and Miller could platoon 2 and 3 RD based on their quality of play this year. Gryba as back up.

    Russell provides cover at RHD if the young bucks are struggling.

  32. Lowetide says:

    Lloyd B.: Chiarelli has shown he will overpay to get what he needs. He needs another NHL RHD.Miller fits the bill.

    Bear and Jones appear to be strong prospects … but are still prospects. Clears a spot on the 50 man list as well.

    Their development fits LVK timeline. A RHD coming up exactly when they need one.

    Benning and Miller could platoon 2 and 3 RD based on their quality of play this year. Gryba as back up.

    Russell provides cover at RHDif the young bucks are struggling.

    So, you’re suggesting Bear and Jones for Miller? Interesting. I think that’s too much, but as you say Peter Chiarelli never hesitates when he’s locked in.

  33. Professor Q says:

    Lowetide: So, you’re suggesting Bear and Jones for Miller? Interesting. I think that’s too much, but as you say Peter Chiarelli never hesitates when he’s locked in.

    I don’t see that happening at all. 0% chance.

  34. stush18 says:

    QUick question for the hose who can help.

    Is their 84 games now with an added team?

    How’s the scheduling work now?

  35. Professor Q says:

    stush18:
    QUick question for the hose who can help.

    Is their 84 games now with an added team?

    How’s thescheduling work now?

    1271 total games, 82 games per team.

  36. stush18 says:

    Professor Q: I don’t see that happening at all. 0% chance.

    Nope. Maybe like bear and berglund (established and “lesser” prospect)

    I can only see them dealing one of those two.

  37. kgo says:

    Investment advice: go play roulette, at least you know your odds

  38. Wonder Llama says:

    re. last thread: technically, weren’t the CFL Posse Las Vegas’ first pro team?

    also: the butter wouldn’t melt so I put it in a pie.

  39. stush18 says:

    Professor Q: 1271 total games, 82 games per team.

    So do we know who the oilers aren’t playing?

    Just curious if we only get vegas twice, versus three for the flames? Stuff like that

  40. godot10 says:

    Lloyd B.: Not to put you in a box, but is cash a good position to be in right now?Because I am.

    If your “cash” is held in “real” money…golden and silver “rocks” that will break your toes if you drop them on your foot! -).

  41. Professor Q says:

    Wonder Llama,

    No, there were others before the Posse, dating back to the 1940s (various football and soccer leagues, mostly, but others as well at times). Even the Utah Jazz played there one season in the 80s. None were successful but apparently Vegas has become a Gold Mine in the past few years.

  42. Wonder Llama says:

    Professor Q,

    Ah, thanks Prof.

    Football in the desert heat. Crazy.

    “…apparently Vegas has become a Gold Mine in the past few years.”

    (unlike Sacramento)!

  43. Georges says:

    stush18: So do we know who the oilers aren’t playing?

    Just curious if we only get vegas twice, versus three for the flames? Stuff like that

    16 EC teams home and away = 32 games

    7 Central teams 3 games = 21 games

    6 Pacific teams 2 games home and away = 24 games

    Calgary 3 away, 2 home = 5 games

    Total = 82 games

    For Central:

    2 away, 1 home

    CHI
    DAL
    MIN

    1 away, 2 home

    COL
    NSH
    STL
    WPG

    According to hockey reference:

    https://www.hockey-reference.com/leagues/NHL_2018_games.html

  44. GMB3 says:

    Munny:
    We haven’t had much financial market talk recently, but I think I should say that the present state of the US exchanges scares me. This Bull might have some more run in it… maybe a week, maybe 8 weeks, maybe as much as four months.

    But looking at sentiment, bullish consensus is now above where it was prior to the dotcom crash, ie extreme.Mutual funds saw record inflows this year and the general public is usually the last to the party and typically mark a sentiment top. Such extremes in complacency often precede big crashes and major bear markets.

    Hindenburg omens have been popping up since May, which means market correlation is dangerously high.

    True money supply growth (TMS-2) is nearing a 10 year low, and commercial/industrial loan growth is equally poor. There is nothing pumping the economy.

    Fewer and fewer stocks are participating in the SPX’s recent rallies. Happiness is extreme, but not widespread throughout the exchange, not good.

    So liquidity is tightening, sentiment is at extremes, internals are weak, and correlations are dangerous… plus a coming debt ceiling debate in a polarized US Gov and The Fed’s promise to soon begin quantitative tightening, further threatening liquidity.

    This market, like I said, could still run higher, and for a good while in the short term, but it also might not, and timing market tops is impossible and stupid, especially if, like most of us, you exist nowhere near the exit doors. If the bull market is not yet out of breath, it’s panting hard, so I’m out.(And buying at these expensive valuations truly is insane)

    This post isn’t intended to be investment advice, but if you haven’t thought much about your portfolio during this extended bull run, now’s a good time to give it a few minutes of thought. Or more.

    And if you’re expecting the average financial advisor to give you some solid counsel right now, please consider these words from the legendary Matt King of Citibank:

    Several told us they would rather lose lots of money in company with the rest of the market than underperform slightly in a continuing rally and then suffer a fall in assets under management as investors move elsewhere.”

    Just a heads up.

    I don’t really understand any of this. Bull market?

    Where is a good place to start to learn more about these things?

  45. godot10 says:

    GMB3: I don’t really understand any of this. Bull market?

    Where is a good place to start to learn more about these things?

    I recommend this bank…which is pretty much the epitome of every bank! -)

    https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=TGwZVGKG30s

  46. Melvis says:

    OilFire,

    In no particular order

    New Trading Systems and Methods, Perry Kaufman
    Options as a Strategic Investment, Lawrence McMillan
    Evidence-Based Technical Analysis, David Aronson
    Thinking Fast and Slow, Daniel Kahneman
    The Emperor’s Handbook, Marcus Aurelius
    Anatomy of $SPY on First Trading Day of the Month, Kora Reddy
    The Education of a Speculator and Practical Speculation, Vic Niederhoffer
    Playing For Keeps, David Halberstam
    Intermarket Analysis, John Murphy
    The Signal and The Noise, Nate Silver
    The Power of Habit, Charles Duhigg
    How We Know What Isn’t So, Thomas Gilovich
    Trading In The Zone, Mark Douglas
    Trade Like a Stock Market Wizard, Mark Minervini
    Inside the Mind of the Turtles and Way of the Turtle, Curtis Faith
    All of Market Wizards books, Jack Schwager
    Trade Stocks and Commodities with the Insiders, Larry Williams
    Extraordinary Popular Delusions and the Madness of Crowds, Charles Mackay
    Trade Your Way to Financial Freedom, Van Tharp
    How To Calculate Quickly, Henry Sticker
    How To Lie With Statistics, Darrell Huff
    The Chimp Paradox, Steve Peters
    A Sense of Where You Are, John McPhee

    Websites/Other Resources

    futurestrader71.com
    LBR Group
    Yra Harris
    Sentimentrader
    J. Dalton Trading

    These are from my friend Ben’s site…@FatF1nger

    Sorry about the lack of direct links. I’ve always just copy/paste…having screwed up the html too many times in the past.

    Anyway…start there. He’s a damn good teacher, having run significant portfolios (equities) for about a decade before going off on his own. He concentrates on futures now, as his twitter account indicates, but there’s also an attendant blog. And don’t be shy about asking questions. Hope this helps get you started.

  47. Justthestatsman says:

    godot10: I recommend this bank…which is pretty much the epitome of every bank! -)

    https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=TGwZVGKG30s

    ~Well that was just silly…first you have to fill out a bunch of stupid forms, THEN it’s gone~

  48. stush18 says:

    Georges,

    Awesome thanks

  49. kgo says:

    GMB3,

    Seriously don’t bother, don’t invest in the stock market in any way. You’re going up against trading algorithms that click the mouse faster than you…everyone had inside info…i’m not joking go play roulette if you want to gamble, you can control your odds, play the sure thing, the long shot, or any combination

  50. GMB3 says:

    FWIW Yammamoto’s goal last night reminded me of vintage Jordan Eberle circa 2012. Eb’s used to be a gord-damned electric factory.

  51. Munny says:

    Wow, I wasn’t expecting that post to get so much attention and I had to walk out the door after writing it, so I apologize for not having responded earlier.

    As far as the jargon and the terms, Investopedia or even Wikipedia is a good place to start. Whe it comes to learning, I personally believe one should start with a grounding in Economics and then move to Finance. One gives context for the other. For the record, I’m an Austrian School economist so would advocate that view, but YMMV.

    hunter1909: I’m good – after buying 6 bottles each of 10 + 12 year old scotch.

    If a Bear market comes, it could last longer than that. Or not. The wild card is Central banks and what they might do and the perception the investment public has of the efficacy of those measures. We could very easily be looking at an SPX going all Nikkei circa 1989. Or not. Nobody knows for sure.

    adamjames: And to throw my 2 cents in on the investment talk.. If you want to participate in the market but are afraid of the possibility of a major downturn, Dollar cost averaging into well diversified asset allocation product should hedge that a bit. It won’t prevent a decline in an already established portfolio, but if your time horizon suits holding on through a bear market, and you continue to regularly add to the funds, you lower the overall cost of the total portfolio. Better value.

    Dollar cost averaging was disproved as an effective strategy in the late 90s. No one should use it. Sorry. This is typically mutual fund sales talk.

    Lloyd B.: Not to put you in a box, but is cash a good position to be in right now? Because I am.

    Me too, now. Being in cash was the point I was trying to make. I always hold some gold and silver too, the point Godot makes below you. For my personal risk profile, a minimum of 20 percent allocation, which I generally increase whenever sovereign risk increases (think what would you do if you were a Cypriot going into the GFC).

    GMB3: Bull market?

    Bull markets are when prices are rising, bear markets are the opposite. If you are serious about learning more, please at least Google everything you come across that you don’t know so you get a sense of the vocab.

  52. Munny says:

    Study market history.

    There are bear markets that have lasted 60 years. That’s right. A market where any investment even 60 years later had still lost money. Dollar cost averaging into that mess, for eg, would have destroyed your retirement.

    Before investing any money in the markets, first invest in yourself and your knowledge. That will be the best investment you ever make.

    Advisors are often salesmen taught to guide you to invest at your risk profile, but invest nonetheless, whether it makes sense or not.

    Valuations are king and buying when stocks are expensive, like they are now, really restricts the ability of your investment to grow.

    But my point wasn’t not-buy, but to sell. Again this shouldn’t be considered investment advice but now is a good time to take a hard look at your portfolio and make some decisions.

    Recency bias is huge in investing but sadly things don’t always go up, despite central bank printing (which has slowed considerably in N. America at any rate).

  53. 106 and 106 says:

    Who plays against Winnipeg?

    10 players from Group A
    10 players from Group B

    as per oilers website.

  54. OriginalPouzar says:

    I would think something like that.

    Hopefully a swath of cuts after tonight’s game.

  55. Kinger_Oil.redux says:

    kgo,

    – Great post LT! This piece you did on ON was terrific: a nice summary of how media, and access to information has changed over the years: https://oilersnation.com/2017/09/19/c-c-c-c-changes/

    – I alluded to some of this stuff when there was that post a week ago here. Media is a fascinating business, and kudos for you for capturing your spot in it, with Lowetide as your brand anchor

    – You made a smart choice IMO not going all in the Athletic. Lowetide, is your proprietary contnt: and whether other mediums work mid or long-term: to give up LT wouldn’t be good for you, be it for the personal reasons you often cite and the community you have created and nurtured here, or for being a respected person in the Oil media market

    – kgo: you definately shouldn’t invest, ever: equating roulette to the capital markets is just crazy

  56. kgo says:

    Kinger_Oil.redux,

    I’m not equating, but offering an alternative to those who want to gamble some of their hard earned money.

    Do you deny that trading algorithms are pervasive in all markets?

  57. Kinger_Oil.redux says:

    kgo:
    Kinger_Oil.redux,

    I’m not equating, but offering an alternative to those who want to gamble some of their hard earned money.

    Do you deny that trading algorithms are pervasive in all markets?

    – A punter who wants to day trade stock, with no insight, no flow, no access: I agree over time that punter is going to get his as$ handed to him, just as going to Vegas, over time, you are going to get your as$ handed to you if you play roulette.

    – I misunderstood you. Investing in the stock market, buying good companies, holding them, and re-balancing ones portfolio, over a long period of time, this is not roulette or gambling

  58. ashley says:

    Munny:

    Dollar cost averaging was disproved as an effective strategy in the late 90s. No one should use it.

    Really? Citation?

  59. ashley says:

    Munny:

    Nobody knows for sure.

    Exactly. A great summary for all financial prognostications.

    Keep it simple, take a long view, stick to your plan, and remember that the hardest thing to do is nothing.

  60. Munny says:

    ashley: Really?Citation?

    There used to be a research paper online that seems to have disappeared over the course of time. but the concept is well known and you can find plenty of discussion on the internet through simple Google searches.

    The Math is obvious though. Firstly for those who don’t know, DCA applies to when you have a lump sum of money to start with… do you invest the lump sum or divide into equal investments into the market made at regular intervals?

    When one is in a bull market, obviously DCA is a failing strategy because both inflation and the rise in share prices make your future investments more expensive then the immediate lump sum market. Since it’s inception, the NYSE has spent 70 percent of its existence in a bull market, thus on the whole, DCA is a losing strategy.

    When one is in a bear market, DCA strategies mean you will lose less money than you would if you lump sum invested. You will still lose money. And it can take a long time to recover even these somewhat lesser losses, so time horizons and years away from retirement are huge considerations. Buying CDs or gov bonds in this case would obviously be a better strategy In a bear market and avoid management fees (if inflation is at its historical average and fund fees at theirs, you will make almost no purchasing power even if returns are at their average of 7-8 percent over the long term… simply treading water)

    And while DCA is not the same thing as making regular contributions off your paycheque, there are similarities. For eg. for time frames less than 50 years, CD laddering generally has provided better returns than regular contributions and staying fully invested.

    DCA is intended to avoid market timing, but there are simple strategies for timing that far outperform DCAing. Spend the lump sum on stocks until the yield curve inverts, convert to CDs or Gov Bonds or even cash until the NBER announces the recession is over and convert back to stocks. This simple method will greatly increase returns while removing emotion and guessing.

    That all said, we live in a pretty unique time… record Central Bank tomfoolery, interest rates that are a market abomination… no one knows how this is going to play out. My opinion is not well, and the signals the markets are sending us this week may be an indication of the “not well” bit beginning, but again YMMV.

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