MOVING DAY

Todd McLellan shuffled the deck after two periods last night and lit a fire that leveled the Jets. The McDavid line acquired a giant and the Nuge line picked up a very nice fit, with the result in the final 20 (four goals and a 5×5 Corsi event total of 24-7) suggesting it might be worth taking the new configuration out for a spin more often.

THE DEFENSE

  • Russell-Benning had a fine game, Benning was firing headman passes often. I like Russell LH side more than right and the pairing won the Fenwicks by a mile. Todd McLellan won’t be able to protect his second pairing, let’s check these possession numbers in a week.
  • Nurse-Gryba skated and chased, Gryba turned the puck over a couple of times. Nurse had a good night with the puck as transporter, tried to do less and because of it got more done. Nurse’s passing is going to be a vital part of any success for this duo.
  • Jones-Simpson were effective and efficient despite some giveaways, both men cashing assists (Simpson’s on the splendid McDavid goal). Jones was sent out after the game, but he was one of the most impressive players in camp over the first 10 days. Simpson survived the latest cuts, once again exceeding expectations.

No surprises, I was impressed with defenders Caleb Jones and Ryan Mantha. Edmonton has a growing list of defensemen who are big, fast and possess a range of skills.  More on the remaining men in a minute.

FORWARDS

  • The Chris Kelly (Malone-Russell) line was mind blowing, four points and the trio gets to stay and fight another day. That’s some damned fine teamwork.
  • Nuge played with Jokinen the entire night, two periods with Puljujarvi and the third with Strome. I thought the line looked good throughout but it was absolutely more lively with Strome on it.
  • The Letestu (Khaira-Kassian) line had another solid night, Khaira is really establishing himself. He should probably cut down 17 pim nights, though.
  • McDavid-Puljujarvi is a new secret weapon and deadly. JP made a lovely tip pass to Connor McDavid for 97’s goal and then (much like his first NHL goal) was in the right place to poke him a marker of his own. I hope we see this combination again. A note for Patrick Maroon, who confronted slayer Byfuglien who was throwing McDavid around for fun.

DISTANT BELLS

  • The distant bells are decimated now, a lonely bell ringing for Patrick Russell. Three injured men (Sekera, Ferlin, Benson) also remain but in name only. Patrick Russell is this year’s champion in this category.
  • Russell was one of the college free agents from one year ago (Matt Benning, Drake Caggiula, Nick Ellis) and is a Chiarelli-type (pain in the ass, rugged, hitter, some skill). Players like him have played in the NHL on Chiarelli teams. I wonder about the boots, but credit to him for getting this far.

UNCERTAIN OILERS

  • We are down to 11 now, I count three among these players who will be on the opening night roster (more if someone is on IR with Andrej Sekera).
  • Any guesses? I’ll go with Yohann Auvitu, Jujhar Khaira and Iiro Pakarinen.
  • Chris Kelly has been inconsistent in camp but the Oilers are giving him the full look, he is probably still in the mix. I will guess he doesn’t make the team, but these games can serve as auditions for other teams.
  • Ty Rattie had his best outing last game, earned another. I can’t see a scenario that gets him on the opening night roster but he is absolutely a recall option.
  • Kailer Yamamoto has been an amazing success during training camp. No matter what, he has delivered a fantastic performance and given fans a taste of what is to come. Maybe more. That’s breaking news.
  • The club has 10 defensemen remaining for seven or eight positions, meaning one or two of these names will make the team. We shouldn’t be surprised by Auvitu and Stanton’s presence, they were hired to compete and Auvitu has a one-way deal. Mark Fayne  remaining is fascinating (he has been inconsistent) and Dillon Simpson making the opening night roster would be ultimate Simpson. He’s been winning battles since his draft day.

CERTAIN OILERS

  • This is the heart of the order. I think we could see a RHD acquired by opening night, we often talk about Colin Miller but perhaps there are other targets.
  • Anton Slepyshev is 10 days from Game One. He’ll need to play some this week.
  • The entire group has yet to play together, the four lines look promising so far this fall, led by an outstanding group of centers.
  • Cam Talbot is Cam Talbot.

 

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143 Responses to "MOVING DAY"

  1. OriginalPouzar says:

    Malone’s decent work and opportunistic goals get him one more game.

    He may have solidified himself as the first call-up and maybe even the 14F to start the season if Slepy does go on IR and opens up a roster spot (and assuming JP makes the team and Yamamoto is in Spokane to start the season).

    Great up arrows from Jones – he was clearly the most polished of the “fab four”. I hope to not see him again this year but there is a player there and I look forward to seeing how he does in the AHL and he may be ready to fight for an NHL job as soon as next year.

    Simpson is right up there with Stanton for the 8D spot.

    Russell is so much better on the left side – I’m remiss to move him back to the right side to get a guy like Auvitu in the lineup (unless its 3RD for Russell).

  2. OriginalPouzar says:

    From Woodguy:

    So, including last night’s 3min at 5v5 EDM scores 6.90 goals/60 with 83% GF when 97 and 98 play together (tiny 86 minute sample).

    That is ridiculously elite but the sample is tiny and it includes a pre-season game which is kinda cheating.

  3. stush18 says:

    I think you have to go back to the maroon-mcdavid-JP line now, right?

    I really think strome plays better as a centre. He likes having the puck, and you can see him drifting into the middle sometimes.

    Also, like most players, he plays better when he’s skating, and centre is where he does that best.

  4. MoneyDoctor says:

    Totally unrelated to this thread but I wanted to post this a couple days ago but failed (I am a newbie). I think there are two reasons to have hope for the Cap rising next year. First, Vegas. Second, strong CAD. Last year it was 0.76 USD/CAD now it is around 0.81 USD/CAD and appreciating. Might give us the couple million bucks we need to keep Nuge!

  5. OriginalPouzar says:

    Maroon gave an example last night of why he is a little bit more valuable that chemistry with McDavid and able to produce on the first line.

    It was a no-brainer but to step up to Big Buff after he took a few liberties with McDavid is something that you now the Big Rig will do each and every time. He didn’t have to throw down with that beast but he was right in there and it was simply something that needed to be done.

    Yes, Maroon’s production as 1LW might be able to be replicated by another player cheaper than what he will re-sign for but Maroon is more than just those box-cars.

    I’m so torn on this one – the center (Nuge) is so valuable but Maroon is a perfect teammate and more than the sum of his parts.

  6. belcolt says:

    OriginalPouzar:
    From Woodguy:

    So, including last night’s 3min at 5v5 EDM scores 6.90 goals/60 with 83% GF when 97 and 98 play together (tiny 86 minute sample).

    That is ridiculously elite but the sample is tiny and it includes a pre-season game which is kinda cheating.

    I get the concern about putting 98 with 97 so soon (facing the elite’s while still young) but if the chem is there you gotta do it. 98 also seems just as responsible defensively (if not more) as the other RW options anyways.

  7. OriginalPouzar says:

    MoneyDoctor:
    Totally unrelated to this thread but I wanted to post this a couple days ago but failed (I am a newbie). I think there are two reasons to have hope for the Cap rising next year. First, Vegas. Second, strong CAD. Last year it was 0.76 USD/CAD now it is around 0.81 USD/CAD and appreciating. Might give us the couple million bucks we need to keep Nuge!

    The Federal Reserve is set to raise interest rates at least 3X in 2018. Each of those will inflate the value of the USD just like the recent interest rate raised from the Bank of Canada have inflated the CDN dollar to where we are now.

    I think the Bank of Canada may raise once more this year but i think the CDN will likely lose value vis-a-vis the USD over the next year solely due to interest rates.

  8. belcolt says:

    RE: Simpson.

    Would love him 8D over Stanton. 4 years younger and plays such a steady, smart game. I think he’s ready for more reps at the NHL level.

  9. OriginalPouzar says:

    I don’t think the fact that Auvitu”s deal is a one-way deal has any bearing on him making the team – it only effects Katz’ pocket book.

    With that said, I believe the GM and POHO signed him to play in the NHL and he’s performed at camp as expected – range of transition and offensive skills but limited otherwise. He’s got a skill-set not otherwise replicated on the team and I believe he is #7 and will play games early and often. The Russell to the right side bothers me greatly though.

  10. OriginalPouzar says:

    belcolt:
    RE: Simpson.

    Would love him 8D over Stanton. 4 years younger and plays such a steady, smart game. I think he’s ready for more reps at the NHL level.

    He maybe be the first call-up over Stanton but I think the team is going to carry 14F to start the year and 7D.

    Stanton has performed well in camp but hasn’t played much as he blocked that shot with his foot.

    They should be two leaders down in Bakersfield until one is needed to fill in.

  11. PunjabiOil says:

    Spector hinting (he is somewhat close to Chiarelli) that Puljujarvi will be sent down and recalled by say December 1. Maybe this happens, maybe not.

    Maroon McDavid Yamomoto
    Lucic Draisaitl Slepeshev
    Jokinen RNH Strome
    Khaira Letestu Kassian

    Extra: Caggiula, Pakarinen

    Klefbom Larsson
    Russell Benning
    Nurse Aavitu

    Extra: Gryba

    Talbot
    Brossoit

    ___________________________

    – I figure 9 games for Yamamoto
    – 4th line making too much money. This will have to change in the future. Letestu, if brought back, needs to come in at a lower price (1.4-1.5M range).
    – Kassian makes too much if that’s his designated role. He may be good in the room, but the Oilers may have to make tough decisions here and move him when there is a cap crunch.
    – I would have Slepeshev on the 2nd line (like the player, always have), but the Oilers may give Caggiula. I think Caggiula’s value on the market may be more than his internal value, and moving him should be considered.
    – That defence is ugly without Sekera. Woof. McKenzie suggested the Oilers would add a veteran defenceman – perhaps a deal before the season starts, or a waivers pickup?
    – Acres of cap space. Have no confidence in LB. Need a better backup IMO.

  12. russ99 says:

    We probably shouldn’t get ahead of ourselves and anoint Puljujarvi to the first line after one good preseason period. Especially since this is the first time we’ve seen him realize that he needs to get to the crease to make things happen against NHL defenses,

    I just hope he makes the team and avoids a repeat nasty situation in Bakersfield.

    Besides, Strome is the best fit on that line’s RW for a reason, his skill set fits best after the rush when we want to retain possession and get multiple scoring chances per sortie, and also the swappability with Leon, when Todd wants to blend this up,

    Hope the wake up call was received and we see more effort from him next time.

  13. OriginalPouzar says:

    Spector is in the room but to speculate half way through pre-season that Puljijarvi will be sent to the AHL for 2 months is nonesense to me.

    Not to mention, that decision is not just the coach’s and resides just as much, actually more, with the GM.

    I would think that no decision has been made given 3 more games.

    Tomorrow’s game against a mostly NHL Carolina team will be a biggie for the bubble players.

  14. PerryK says:

    OriginalPouzar:
    I don’t think the fact that Auvitu”s deal is a one-way deal has any bearing on him making the team – it only effects Katz’ pocket book.

    With that said, I believe the GM and POHO signed him to play in the NHL and he’s performed at camp as expected – range of transition and offensive skills but limited otherwise.He’s got a skill-set not otherwise replicated on the team and I believe he is #7 and will play games early and often. The Russell to the right side bothers me greatly though.

    Auvitu is just brutal on defending! His gap control sucks, and he seems to easily get knocked off the puck a lot. Please tell me we have a better plan than to use him and at the same time have Russell be less effective. That is a double whammy.

  15. OriginalPouzar says:

    His accent adds an element that noone on the team, or in the league, can provide.

  16. who says:

    PunjabiOil:
    Spector hinting (he is somewhat close to Chiarelli) that Puljujarvi will be sent down and recalled by say December 1.Maybe this happens, maybe not.

    Maroon McDavid Yamomoto
    Lucic Draisaitl Slepeshev
    Jokinen RNH Strome
    Khaira Letestu Kassian

    Extra: Caggiula, Pakarinen

    Klefbom Larsson
    RussellBenning
    Nurse Aavitu

    Extra: Gryba

    Talbot
    Brossoit

    ___________________________

    – I figure 9 games for Yamamoto
    – 4th line making too much money.This will have to change in the future.Letestu, if brought back, needs to come in at a lower price (1.4-1.5M range).
    – Kassian makes too much if that’s his designated role.He may be good in the room, but the Oilers may have to make tough decisions here and move him when there is a cap crunch.
    – I would have Slepeshev on the 2nd line (like the player, always have), but the Oilers may give Caggiula.I think Caggiula’s value on the market may be more than his internal value, and moving him should be considered.
    – That defence is ugly without Sekera.Woof. McKenzie suggested the Oilers would add a veteran defenceman – perhaps a deal before the season starts, or a waivers pickup?
    – Acres of cap space.Have no confidence in LB.Need a better backup IMO.

    Kassian makes too much for a fourth line winger but he really deserves to be playing higher up the lineup. Letestu will be tough to afford next year. Can’t see him signing here for less money.

  17. stush18 says:

    PunjabiOil,

    I think Yamamoto gets his chance until slepy returns. It’s an easy call imo.

    I also agree with kassian, but him and khaira have some serious chemistry. They always look good together. If I were to move kassian up, I wouldn’t hesitate. I think he has more enough skill to play in the top six.

    I completely disagree with you on LB. If it’s results that matter, why are we against him?

  18. Woodguy v2.0 says:

    OriginalPouzar:
    From Woodguy:

    So, including last night’s 3min at 5v5 EDM scores 6.90 goals/60 with 83% GF when 97 and 98 play together (tiny 86 minute sample).

    That is ridiculously elite but the sample is tiny and it includes a pre-season game which is kinda cheating.

    Yeah, I’m having fun there, but its something. Small samples turn into big samples.

    84 minutes last year out scoring 8-2 for 5.71 GF/60

    3 minutes vs AHLers last night outscoring 2-0 for 40GF/60

    🙂

    That touch pass was a thing of beauty and something that doesn’t come naturally or at all to a lot of players. I run them hard together and don’t worry too much about the comp.

    The other two lines should be able to shoulder more of the comp load.

    If 27-29 can handle ~30% vs Elites and 36-93 can given their histories then McLellan can kind of ignore who the other team sends out and concentrate on his own bench which is a huge advantage.

    Also,

    Did everyone else catch McLellan referring to Ryan Strome as “Dylan” in the post game?

    Hmmmmmmmm……….

  19. Woodguy v2.0 says:

    Peter has cap space.

    Peter sees Gryba struggling and bit and not showing like an everyday guy.

    Peter buys another RHD.

    I hope these things are true.

  20. OriginalPouzar says:

    Peter may see Gryba struggling but also see Stanton with a nice camp so far and a similar skill-set, although different handedness.

  21. belcolt says:

    who: Kassian makes too much for a fourth line winger but he really deserves to be playing higher up the lineup. Letestu will be tough to afford next year. Can’t see him signing here for less money.

    I can if Nuge is dealt. I feel if the team is looking for a 3C and no internal options satisfy, they won’t hesitate to pay him more and give him the job. That being said, I have my concerns about him doing 3C….

  22. Snowman says:

    Woodguy v2.0,

    Yeah Todd getting your name wrong can’t be a good sign. Especially for a big name trade. I know it was just after the game but lordy, you gotta think he knows Kailer’s name and Jesse’s name and I’m pretty damn sure he’s never forgotten Connor’s name..

  23. belcolt says:

    Woodguy v2.0:
    Peter has cap space.

    Peter sees Gryba struggling and bit and not showing like an everyday guy.

    Peter buys another RHD.

    I hope these things are true.

    please please please please please please

  24. frjohnk says:

    Woodguy v2.0: Did everyone else catch McLellan referring to Ryan Strome as “Dylan” in the post game?

    Hmmmmmmmm……….

    Strome was brought in to replace the guy that some would say had a “poor work ethic” or was not “heavy on the puck” or “lazy”

    Just a few games into the preseason and the coach has to send a message to Strome.

    If Strome does not pan out for us, it should be written in stone, that an Oiler GM can never trade for first round pick from the Islanders.

  25. who says:

    belcolt: I can if Nuge is dealt. I feel if the team is looking for a 3C and no internal options satisfy, they won’t hesitate to pay him more and give him the job. That being said, I have my concerns about him doing 3C….

    I think trading Nuge is a mistake. I would let Maroon and Letestu walk next year and would trade Strome if I had to.
    2 years from now this teams key forwards will be Macdavid, Drai, Nuge, JP, KY and for better or worse, Lucic.

  26. doritogrande says:

    From what I saw last night, Malone now has a serious chance to make this team if Slepyshev isn’t ready to go, Loved his edge, went to the dirty areas and wasn’t to be overworked. Can’t say I noticed his linemates (Kelly, Russell) anywhere as much as the comments suggest.

    Jokinen is SUCH a smart player. That’s our best signing this offseason. Him and Nuge together will make for a great out-scoring line regardless of who plays 3RW with them. For the record, I want Slepyshev on this unit when healthy.

    Last night’s swap of Puljujarvi and Strome should be one of those things McLellan goes to when necessary, not something to start the game with, IMO. I’d continue to run Strome with McDavid and Maroon for the rest of pre-season to continue to build chemistr because that’s a line that can do real damage most of the year together. Puljujarvi (and Draisaitl too) should be the weapons we unleash to change the pace of a game when things aren’t going our way.

    From all accounts, Kailer had a hell of a game on Friday night. I’d run him in the last two pre-season games and see if he can continue the pace when NHL competition ramps up. If he makes the grade, then you’ve got a great problem on your hands, but if he starts to taper off with tighter checking and more limited minutes you’re justified sending him down after seeing the potential he has.

  27. Woodguy v2.0 says:

    PerryK: Auvitu is just brutal on defending!His gap control sucks, and he seems to easily get knocked off the puck a lot.Please tell me we have a better plan than to use him and at the same time have Russell be less effective.That is a double whammy.

    I think one of the most interesting things this year is the evolution of the Dman position and how much more puck movement is going to become to the skill set of successful defenders.

    In regards to players like Auvitu who (I agree with you) are much better with the puck than without it, there is a line of thinking that I find interesting:

    “If you have a Dman who can move the puck but defends below average he might be better to have on the roster than a Dman who can’t move the puck but defends well IF YOU HAVE AN ABOVE AVERAGE GOALIE”

    I find this line of thinking fascinating and it makes sense in a goal share way immediately.

    Let’s consider a player decision on Team “E” :

    Dman A helps create more dangerous chances for his puck movement
    Dman A has more high danger chances against due to his poor defending
    Dman B doesn’t help create more dangerous chances due to below average puck movement
    Dman B helps reduce high danger chances against due to his good defending
    Goalie C (let’s call him Cam) is one of the best vs high danger shots
    Center C (let’s call him Connor) scores more when he has the puck than any other player in the league.
    Center D (let’s call him Drai) is considered one of the best up and coming players in the game

    So,

    Is Dman A more valuable to Team E or is Dman B?

    I think this type of decision making is really interesting and is completely dependent on the make up of the roster.

    On some teams you’d want A on some you’d want B.

    I think you want A on the Oilers, but I’m not the burning bush.

  28. russ99 says:

    Snowman:
    Woodguy v2.0,

    Yeah Todd getting your name wrong can’t be a good sign. Especially for a big name trade. I know it was just after the game but lordy, you gotta think he knows Kailer’s name and Jesse’s name and I’m pretty damn sure he’s never forgotten Connor’s name..

    That seemed intentional to me.

    Like just cause your brother is best friends with McDavid doesn’t mean you don’t have to work.

  29. speeds says:

    Maroon-CMD-Puljujarvi
    Lucic-LD-Yamamoto
    Jokinen-RNH-Strome

    Do the Oilers look at that sort of top 9?

    Seems like they are pretty high on Caggiula, so would expect him to factor in somewhere, also would be Khaira, Letestu, and Kassian?

  30. Lowetide says:

    speeds:
    Maroon-CMD-Puljujarvi
    Lucic-LD-Yamamoto
    Jokinen-RNH-Strome

    Do the Oilers look at that sort of top 9?

    Seems like they are pretty high on Caggiula, so would expect him to factor in somewhere, also would be Khaira, Letestu, and Kassian?

    I think that’s the lineup eventually.

  31. russ99 says:

    Woodguy v2.0: I think one of the most interesting things this year is the evolution of the Dman position and how much more puck movement is going to become to the skill set of successful defenders.

    In regards to players like Auvitu who (I agree with you) are much better with the puck than without it, there is a line of thinking that I find interesting:

    “If you have a Dman who can move the puck but defends below average he might be better to have on the roster than a Dman who can’t move the puck but defends well IF YOU HAVE AN ABOVE AVERAGE GOALIE”

    I find this line of thinking fascinating and it makes sense in a goal share way immediately.

    Let’s consider a player decision on Team “E” :

    Dman A helps create more dangerous chances for his puck movement
    Dman A has more high danger chances against due to his poor defending
    Dman B doesn’t help create more dangerous chances due to below average puck movement
    Dman B helps reduce high danger chances against due to his good defending
    Goalie C (let’s call him Cam) is one of the best vs high danger shots
    Center C (let’s call him Connor) scores more when he has the puck than any other player in the league.
    Center D (let’s call him Drai) is considered one of the best up and coming players in the game

    So,

    Is Dman A more valuable to Team E or is Dman B?

    I think this type of decision making is really interesting and is completely dependent on the make up of the roster.

    On some teams you’d want A on some you’d want B.

    I think you want A on the Oilers, but I’m not the burning bush.

    Talbot just can’t wish away open chances and mismatches due to blown coverage or missed assignments. With Broissoit shaky so far, this seems more vital this year so he doesn’t wear down before the postseason.

    I think Todd has handled this blend perfectly, pairings where one guy is the puck mover with lesser defensive chops and one guy who’s more tthe rock on defense and less of a breakout passer. Admittedly, we’re now without one of those guys while Sekera is out.

    I also think that we don’t need a defensive corps with all puck movers, we need a defensive corps where everyone can make a good pass under pressure in our zone. Transition can happen from any of our players it doesn’t need to be a defenseman all the time, but giving away the puck in our zone comes back to hurt us.

    This is why I hoped we’d replace Gryba with a similar physical corners guy and crease clearer with better passing chops. Sure seems like a missed opportunity, and unless someone pops out on the waiver wire, Nurse will have to do a lot more defending.

  32. jtblack says:

    Happy for JP. Watched parts of the game on Oilers TV.
    Nurse seems like the same old Nurse to me; chaos … I watched the shift where he has control in the offensive zone, he is back peddling with the puck and actually skates out of the zone entirely … Small thing but these are the Darnell type things we often see; game mgmt, understanding where he is on the ice …

    Its early but PC / TMac have to be happy with all the RW’s so far and the team overall ….

    The Kassian comments are true above, too much for a 4RW; but that is a sign of the depth the Oilers now have …. He probably rotates between 3RW and 4RW depending on injury …

  33. jm363561 says:

    “I think we could see a RHD acquired by opening night”.

    Totally agree, with one qualification. The roster is knee deep in 5, 6, 7 D. If, and it’s a big If, there is a second pairing RHD available on a short term basis I would expect Chia to go all in – Franson is not a 2D and I was not surprised they did not pursue him. Second pairing D (along with backup tending and, possibly PK) is the area of weakness to my eye. We need another Kris Russell😀

  34. Clay says:

    “The Letestu (Khaira-Kassian) line had another solid night, Khaira is really establishing himself. He should probably cut down 17 pim nights, though.”

    Still baffled he managed a 10 minute misconduct out of that sequence. The minor call was weak too.

  35. Georges says:

    LT,

    Is Fenwick the metric you plan to use this year for game recaps?

  36. jm363561 says:

    Woodguy v2.0: I think one of the most interesting things this year is the evolution of the Dman position and how much more puck movement is going to become to the skill set of successful defenders.

    In regards to players like Auvitu who (I agree with you) are much better with the puck than without it, there is a line of thinking that I find interesting:

    “If you have a Dman who can move the puck but defends below average he might be better to have on the roster than a Dman who can’t move the puck but defends well IF YOU HAVE AN ABOVE AVERAGE GOALIE”

    I find this line of thinking fascinating and it makes sense in a goal share way immediately.

    Let’s consider a player decision on Team “E” :

    Dman A helps create more dangerous chances for his puck movement
    Dman A has more high danger chances against due to his poor defending
    Dman B doesn’t help create more dangerous chances due to below average puck movement
    Dman B helps reduce high danger chances against due to his good defending
    Goalie C (let’s call him Cam) is one of the best vs high danger shots
    Center C (let’s call him Connor) scores more when he has the puck than any other player in the league.
    Center D (let’s call him Drai) is considered one of the best up and coming players in the game

    So,

    Is Dman A more valuable to Team E or is Dman B?

    I think this type of decision making is really interesting and is completely dependent on the make up of the roster.

    On some teams you’d want A on some you’d want B.

    I think you want A on the Oilers, but I’m not the burning bush.

    ======

    Nice post. JShultz springs to mind in this context. Also, how will the crackdown on slashing affect D men? You might think the slower stay at home D guys may go the way of the dinosaurs.

  37. blainer says:

    Woodguy v2.0:
    Peter has cap space.

    Peter sees Gryba struggling and bit and not showing like an everyday guy.

    Peter buys another RHD.

    I hope these things are true.

    Gryba has not looked good so far IMO. I really was expecting a better preseason from him. I can see him being waived to the minors at some point. Hopefully it’s just preseason jitters and he bounces back like last year.

    JP did not look good at all to me in those first two periods but he is just 19 so there’s that. His skating is big league for sure but it would not hurt to send him down. I would like to see him though with CMD the last two preseason games with some difficult comps. That will decide his fate me thinks.

    Just love the competition at all positions … finally we are a contenda !!!

  38. hunter1909 says:

    PunjabiOil: – I figure 9 games for Yamamoto

    With respect, the Oilers this season want to come out of the gate swinging for the fences, not babysitting/spoiling prospects like Lowe+MacT were infamous for.

    Let the kid go back to his junior team. He’s already able to say he’s played in NHL games.

  39. jm363561 says:

    russ99:
    We probably shouldn’t get ahead of ourselves and anoint Puljujarvi to the first line after one good preseason period. Especially since this is the first time we’ve seen him realize that he needs to get to the crease to make things happen against NHL defenses,

    I just hope he makes the team and avoids a repeat nasty situation in Bakersfield.

    Besides, Strome is the best fit on that line’s RW for a reason, his skill set fits best after the rush when we want to retain possession and get multiple scoring chances per sortie, and also the swappability with Leon, when Todd wants to blend this up,

    Hope the wake up call was received and we see more effort from him next time.

    Agree that we probably should not be anointing PJ after one preseason period but “getting ahead of ourselves” is what we do.😀

    I did not quite get the calling out of Strome. To my eye McD, Looch and Leon, to name three, seem to be cruising so far.

  40. OriginalPouzar says:

    Lowetide: I think that’s the lineup eventually.

    Eventually this year or eventually down the road?

    I would think in future years but both Nuge and Maroon are in there and that may not be possible in future years (although I haven’t closed the book on it and won’t until next off-season).

  41. hunter1909 says:

    Hunter1909’s Oilers Death March!

    Returns for another season!

    Here’s how to play: SIMPLY enter the amount of points you expect the Edmonton Oilers to get during the 2017-18 season;

    At the end of the season the player(s) with the closest total wins!

    It’s easy!!

    contest open until the opening puck drop of the 2017-18 season

  42. stephen sheps says:

    hunter1909,

    Hi Hunter,

    Please put me down for a Gretzky. 99 points for this year’s squad.
    Thanks!

  43. Lowetide says:

    Georges:
    LT,

    Is Fenwick the metric you plan to use this year for game recaps?

    Not sure. I found last season the Corsi conversation bogged everything down. I like Corsi and Corsi rel, it is my preferred means of engagement, and would like to graduate to DFF if it is available right after the game when I am making my tables. So, we’ll see, but it’s an option for sure.

  44. fifthcartel says:

    If Spector is right and Puljujarvi is sent down, the right side looks incredibly bare. Strome/Caggiula?/Slepyshev?/Kassian.

    That would include only 1 player who has scored over 30 points in the NHL (Strome). That’s not good.

  45. Lowetide says:

    OriginalPouzar: Eventually this year or eventually down the road?

    I would think in future years but both Nuge and Maroon are in there and that may not be possible in future years (although I haven’t closed the book on it and won’t until next off-season).

    Maroon likely back, less expensive Nuge in RNH’s spot I expect.

  46. OriginalPouzar says:

    Thanks.

    I’m intrigued about Carolina’s lineup for tomorrow night. I believe that McLellan said he spoke to with Bill Peters in August who indicated he will ice a veteran lineup but maybe i misunderstood and that is for the game in CAR on Wed?

    I hope its a somewhat veteran lineup as we really need to see Kailer, Puljijarvi, Auvitu, Malone against a solid lineup not at the very beginning of camp.

    Tomorrow’s game may be the most important of the pre-season.

  47. Kinger_Oil.redux says:

    Lowetide: Not sure. I found last season the Corsi conversation bogged everything down. I like Corsi and Corsi rel, it is my preferred means of engagement, and would like to graduate to DFF if it is available right after the game when I am making my tables. So, we’ll see, but it’s an option for sure.

    – Great post LT!

    – all things being equal the longer a team has the lead he worse the team corsi is going to be

    – I don’t think it’s a useful tool to evaluate a single game

    – Most teams win more games with sub 50 Corsi than being above 50 from the data I’ve seen

  48. The Original JDî says:

    I’m glad to see JP have a good game when he needed it, elsewise this morning’s post could have been titled Wrong End of a Gun, or Twenty Red Lights.

  49. Gret99zky says:

    OT – Just finished reading The Sisters Brothers (a novel by Canadian Patrick deWitt). Enjoyed it very much. Dark and humorous 1850s “cowboy noir” filled with colourful characters and rich language.

    Reminiscent of Deadwood and the Coen brothers.

  50. Bank Shot says:

    speeds:
    Maroon-CMD-Puljujarvi
    Lucic-LD-Yamamoto
    Jokinen-RNH-Strome

    Do the Oilers look at that sort of top 9?

    Seems like they are pretty high on Caggiula, so would expect him to factor in somewhere, also would be Khaira, Letestu, and Kassian?

    Oilers shouldn’t play Puljujarvi with Mcdavid until he has an extension.

    As of right now Pujuljarvi isn’t the best winger on the team. He’ll look great playing with McDavid, even Yakupov was a ppg there, but let Puljujarvi work on his game lower in the order. If Puljujarvi starts just ripping it on a line without McDavid and forces the coaches hand, so be it, but seems like the quickest way to get into a potential overpay situation is to pair a guy with McDavid.

  51. frjohnk says:

    OriginalPouzar: but maybe i misunderstood and that is for the game in CAR on Wed?

    Hope both teams ice majority of their regular season opening lineups for Wednesday game in Saskatoon.

    I’m going.

    Taking my oldest daughter to the game.

    Leaving wife and 4 other kids at home.

  52. Bank Shot says:

    fifthcartel:
    If Spector is right and Puljujarvi is sent down, the right side looks incredibly bare. Strome/Caggiula?/Slepyshev?/Kassian.

    That would include only 1 player who has scored over 30 points in the NHL (Strome). That’s not good.

    Draisaitl can still flip back and forth as needed.

    And Iginla is still available…

  53. Lowetide says:

    Kinger_Oil.redux: – Great post LT!

    – all things being equal the longer a team has the lead he worse the team corsi is going to be

    – I don’t think it’s a useful tool to evaluate a single game

    – Most teams win more games with sub 50 Corsi than being above 50 from the data I’ve seen

    Of course we can factor in score effects. Corsi and Corsi rel should never be used in isolation, as is the case with all statistics.

  54. oilguy6969 says:

    I have followed your posts LT for quite a long time and always respect your opinion. That said, why the love for JP? Am i not seeing something here? To my eyes he has some moments of flash and will no doubt be a big deal in Oil Country one day, but i just don’t see him making this team. He would benefit greatly in Bakersfield, learning the language and how to play North American hockey,with a great coach in Gary Fleming I might add. Ive watched the games so far this preseason and he looks lost at times and we are not the same team now that we have grown accustomed to, no need to rush a kid in because of one good game. IMO

  55. OriginalPouzar says:

    Bank Shot: Oilers shouldn’t play Puljujarvi with Mcdavid until he has an extension.

    As of right now Pujuljarvi isn’t the best winger on the team. He’ll look great playing with McDavid, even Yakupov was a ppg there, but let Puljujarvi work on his game lower in the order. If Puljujarvi starts just ripping it on a line without McDavid and forces the coaches hand, so be it, but seems like the quickest way to get into a potential overpay situation is to pair a guy with McDavid.

    An inflated contract due to playing on McDavid’s wing is indeed a real thing, however, our coach cannot worry about future contracts when deploying his bench – he needs to run his bench in a manner that he believes gives his team the best chance to win the game that night – end stop. If he feels JP as 1RW provides the best chance at winning, it has to be done.

  56. OriginalPouzar says:

    frjohnk: Hope both teams ice majority of their regular season opening lineups for Wednesday game in Saskatoon.

    I’m going.

    Taking my oldest daughter to the game.

    Leaving wife and 4 other kids at home.

    Right, Saskatoon, no in Carolina.

    I expressly remember McLennan stating that the teams will likely have a more veteran lineup for the game in EDM on Monday and more resting of veterans for the game in Saskatoon on WED.

    Sorry for the bad news.

    He did say that all of his premier players will play at least one road game this exhibition though.

  57. OriginalPouzar says:

    Bank Shot: Draisaitl can still flip back and forth as needed.

    And Iginla is still available…

    Iginla is still available to do what? Play NHL hockey? Surely you jest.

    Just kidding, I am the one jesting – he did have a spike after his deadline deal last year.

  58. Pescador says:

    fifthcartel:
    If Spector is right and Puljujarvi is sent down, the right side looks incredibly bare. Strome/Caggiula?/Slepyshev?/Kassian.

    That would include only 1 player who has scored over 30 points in the NHL (Strome). That’s not good.

    Sure,
    Strome
    Sleppy
    Caggiula
    Kassian
    Doesn’t look that substantial, BUTT;
    McDavid. Strome
    Draisaitl. Sleppy
    R.N.H. Caggiula
    Letestu. Kassian
    Looks a lot better to me,
    Puljujarvi will factor in somewhere this season,

  59. Lowetide says:

    oilguy6969:
    I have followed your posts LT for quite a long time and always respect your opinion. That said, why the love for JP? Am i not seeing something here? To my eyes he has some moments of flash and will no doubt be a big deal in Oil Country one day, but i just don’t see him making this team. He would benefit greatly in Bakersfield, learning the language and how to play North American hockey,with a great coach in Gary Fleming I might add. Ive watched the games so far this preseason and he looks lost at times and we are not the same team now that we have grown accustomed to, no need to rush a kid in because of one good game. IMO

    I’ve been consistent on JP, for me he is going to be a great two-way player but we don’t know about the offense. I’m not sure that means love, certainly have received comments suggesting I hate him.

  60. Pescador says:

    Pescador,

    Spector is a twat

  61. Pescador says:

    Lowetide,

    Yes, but why do you hate him? That’s my question 😀

  62. Woodguy v2.0 says:

    Lowetide: Not sure. I found last season the Corsi conversation bogged everything down. I like Corsi and Corsi rel, it is my preferred means of engagement, and would like to graduate to DFF if it is available right after the game when I am making my tables. So, we’ll see, but it’s an option for sure.

    We should have game stuff up soon.

    Hopefully by the start of the season.

    You can ask G to run it for each game, he’s got it locked and loaded as far as the data goes so it ain’t no thing for him to get you the numbers

  63. Woodguy v2.0 says:

    Lowetide,

    I’m not sure that means love

    I love him.

  64. Woodguy v2.0 says:

    russ99,

    Talbot just can’t wish away open chances and mismatches due to blown coverage or missed assignments. With Broissoit shaky so far, this seems more vital this year so he doesn’t wear down before the postseason.

    The theory is that the team will outscore the other if HDSC are even due to superior goalering and superior goals/hdsc so you can afford to actually give up more goals (anathema to NHL coaches, I know)


    I think Todd has handled this blend perfectly, pairings where one guy is the puck mover with lesser defensive chops and one guy who’s more tthe rock on defense and less of a breakout passer.

    I generally like that too, but I’m not sure its actually the ideal.


    Admittedly, we’re now without one of those guys while Sekera is out.
    I also think that we don’t need a defensive corps with all puck movers, we need a defensive corps where everyone can make a good pass under pressure in our zone. Transition can happen from any of our players it doesn’t need to be a defenseman all the time, but giving away the puck in our zone comes back to hurt us.

    The way I see it if we had a dcorps where everyone can make a good pass under pressure we’d have a dcorps of puck movers.


    This is why I hoped we’d replace Gryba with a similar physical corners guy and crease clearer with better passing chops. Sure seems like a missed opportunity, and unless someone pops out on the waiver wire, Nurse will have to do a lot more defending.

    I agree on this and am hoping Peter spends his remaining cap (he usually spends to the cap) on another RHD.

  65. Georges says:

    Lowetide: Not sure. I found last season the Corsi conversation bogged everything down. I like Corsi and Corsi rel, it is my preferred means of engagement, and would like to graduate to DFF if it is available right after the game when I am making my tables. So, we’ll see, but it’s an option for sure.

    You used boxcars, EV TOI, 5v5 CF-CA and 5v5 CF% last season.

    Why not 5v5 GF-GA? It seems important in recapping a game…?

  66. The Original JDî says:

    “He’s a young guy. Confidence is everything,” said McDavid. “Feeling like you belong in this league, competing against these guys and knowing you can be successful. I think for any young guy that’s the true battle. Hopefully this gives him more confidence.”

    The true battle.

  67. Pouzar says:

    jtblack: Nurse seems like the same old Nurse to me; chaos

    And there it is.

  68. Pescador says:

    At a lash,
    2018/19 Center- RW depth chart barring trades;
    Gord. Yessie Pulloutmy Poolparty
    Derman Chancellor. Kammoto Dragon.
    Dylan Strome.😀 Sleppski
    JJ. Krass / other.
    Sadly RNH has to go because Cap.
    Lordy, that Russell contract, the more Benning emerges the worse it looks.

  69. Gret99zky says:

    I’m looking forward to seeing the players “sign at a discount to play on McDavid’s team with a real chance to win a Cup” that we have all been hearing about.

    We wait.

  70. PerryK says:

    Woodguy v2.0: I think one of the most interesting things this year is the evolution of the Dman position and how much more puck movement is going to become to the skill set of successful defenders.

    In regards to players like Auvitu who (I agree with you) are much better with the puck than without it, there is a line of thinking that I find interesting:

    “If you have a Dman who can move the puck but defends below average he might be better to have on the roster than a Dman who can’t move the puck but defends well IF YOU HAVE AN ABOVE AVERAGE GOALIE”

    I find this line of thinking fascinating and it makes sense in a goal share way immediately.

    Let’s consider a player decision on Team “E” :

    Dman A helps create more dangerous chances for his puck movement
    Dman A has more high danger chances against due to his poor defending
    Dman B doesn’t help create more dangerous chances due to below average puck movement
    Dman B helps reduce high danger chances against due to his good defending
    Goalie C (let’s call him Cam) is one of the best vs high danger shots
    Center C (let’s call him Connor) scores more when he has the puck than any other player in the league.
    Center D (let’s call him Drai) is considered one of the best up and coming players in the game

    So,

    Is Dman A more valuable to Team E or is Dman B?

    I think this type of decision making is really interesting and is completely dependent on the make up of the roster.

    On some teams you’d want A on some you’d want B.

    I think you want A on the Oilers, but I’m not the burning bush.

    If you’re not the burning bush, you must be close! 🙂

    It seems that Auvitu is missing the basics, when the puck is coming at him in the Neutral Zone. He loses his gaps skating backwards and has to turn to try and catch up to the play. He may be able to play with Gryba at his best, or maybe Fayne. But he cannot do very much defending even if the puck ends up in his corner! He has to be able to separate puck from the upcoming forward!

    He reminds me a lot of Laleggia, or Schultz at their very worst. If keeping him means that we have to switch Russel’s sides – No Thanks! Let’s face it, Russell is on this team to stay. That means that we cannot use him as RD. We need to work all other possibilities around that proposition.

    In my opinion, Auvitu is a victim of “No room at the Inn” scenario as far as LD is concerned.

  71. godot10 says:

    MoneyDoctor:
    Totally unrelated to this thread but I wanted to post this a couple days ago but failed (I am a newbie). I think there are two reasons to have hope for the Cap rising next year. First, Vegas. Second, strong CAD. Last year it was 0.76 USD/CAD now it is around 0.81 USD/CAD and appreciating. Might give us the couple million bucks we need to keep Nuge!

    Vegas likely has a negative effect on the cap. It is likely a below average revenue team…negative to cap. And the national TV contracts don’t get any bigger because of Vegas.

    The owners were happy with expansion, because they don’t have to share the expansion fees with the players and the share of expansion fees >> share of national TV revenue lost by sharing with one more team.

    Players like expansion because of 23 more jobs.

    But it is likely a negative to the cap.

  72. PokeCheck says:

    hunter1909,

    Hey Hunter, you can put me down for 101 points.

  73. godot10 says:

    OriginalPouzar:
    Maroon gave an example last night of why he is a little bit more valuable that chemistry with McDavid and able to produce on the first line.

    It was a no-brainer but to step up to Big Buff after he took a few liberties with McDavid is something that you now the Big Rig will do each and every time.He didn’t have to throw down withthat beast but he was right in there and it was simply something that needed to be done.

    Yes, Maroon’s production as 1LW might be able to be replicated by another player cheaper than what he will re-sign for but Maroon is more than just those box-cars.

    I’m so torn on this one – the center (Nuge) is so valuable but Maroon is a perfect teammate and more than the sum of his parts.

    Byfuglien isn’t afraid of Maroon, and Byfulglien wasn’t taken off the ice because Maroon was too chicken to throw a punch at Byfuglien.

    Byfuglien isn’t going to take himself off the ice. So all Maroon was doing there was just a big chicken posturing. Heck Kailer could have done what Maroon did. Going up an talking to Byfuglien…anybody can do that.

  74. godot10 says:

    OriginalPouzar: The Federal Reserve is set to raise interest rates at least 3X in 2018.Each of those will inflate the value of the USD just like the recent interest rate raised from the Bank of Canada have inflated the CDN dollar to where we are now.

    I think the Bank of Canada may raise once more this year but i think the CDN will likely lose value vis-a-vis the USD over the next year solely due to interest rates.

    But China is introducing a yuan contract on oil on their commodities exchange, undermining and setting the stage of the end of the petrodollar era, which will free up the need dollars held internationally for the oil trade.

  75. Georges says:

    godot10: Byfuglien isn’t afraid of Maroon, and Byfulglien wasn’t taken off the ice because Maroon was too chicken to throw a punch at Byfuglien.

    Byfuglien isn’t going to take himself off the ice.So all Maroon was doing there was just a big chicken posturing.Heck Kailer could have done what Maroon did.Going up an talking to Byfuglien…anybody can do that.

    Why would Maroon want to take Byfuglien off the ice?

    On the ice, Byfuglien is more dangerous to WPG than he is to their opponents.

    Have you seen big Buff “defend”?

    (errr… I hope he doesn’t know where I park my van down by the river.)

  76. godot10 says:

    russ99:
    We probably shouldn’t get ahead of ourselves and anoint Puljujarvi to the first line after one good preseason period. Especially since this is the first time we’ve seen him realize that he needs to get to the crease to make things happen against NHL defenses,

    I just hope he makes the team and avoids a repeat nasty situation in Bakersfield.

    Besides, Strome is the best fit on that line’s RW for a reason, his skill set fits best after the rush when we want to retain possession and get multiple scoring chances per sortie, and also the swappability with Leon, when Todd wants to blend this up,

    Hope the wake up call was received and we see more effort from him next time.

    When did Ryan Strome become a proven top six hockey player? He isn’t. He is as big a question mark as the young guys. All Strome has proven so far in his career is that he can survive in the bottom six.

  77. speeds says:

    Woodguy v2.0:
    russ99,

    I agree on this and am hoping Peter spends his remaining cap (he usually spends to the cap) on another RHD.

    I’m guessing they are really trying to stay away from an overage for next year, so they not only need to build in enough room for expected bonuses, but also enough room to cover injuries, should they occur.

  78. godot10 says:

    belcolt: I can if Nuge is dealt. I feel if the team is looking for a 3C and no internal options satisfy, they won’t hesitate to pay him more and give him the job. That being said, I have my concerns about him doing 3C….

    If Khaira, Slepyshev, Puljujarvi, and Caggiula take a step forward this year, and if Benson gets healthy, and with Yamamoto,

    Chiarelli can say goodbye to Strome and Maroon next year, and keep Nugent-Hopkins.

  79. speeds says:

    godot10: Vegas likely has a negative effect on the cap.It is likely a below average revenue team…negative to cap.And the national TV contracts don’t get any bigger because of Vegas.

    The owners were happy with expansion, because they don’t have to share the expansion fees with the players and the share of expansion fees >> share of national TV revenue lost by sharing with one more team.

    Players like expansion because of 23 more jobs.

    But it is likely a negative to the cap.

    I have no idea as to the actual numbers, but I did see this article a few months ago suggesting LV is doing pretty well in ticket revenue.

    http://nhl.nbcsports.com/2017/07/17/foley-vegas-has-more-ticket-revenue-than-boston-philly-and-pittsburgh/

  80. stush18 says:

    LT are we talking waiver wire tonight?

    Couple pickups today in Hutchinson and McNeil for me, but in the coming days I’m sure we see more like leivo

  81. godot10 says:

    Georges: Why would Maroon want to take Byfuglien off the ice?

    On the ice, Byfuglien is more dangerous to WPG than he is to their opponents.

    Have you seen big Buff “defend”?

    (errr… I hope he doesn’t know where I park my van down by the river.)

    Byfuglien is a better player than Maroon by a lot, and a defensemen.

  82. Woodguy v2.0 says:

    jm363561: ======

    Nice post. JShultz springs to mind in this context. Also, how will the crackdown on slashing affect D men? You might think the slower stay at home D guys may go the way of the dinosaurs.

    I think it’s another data point in a long list that is making slow Dmen a thing of the past

  83. tcho says:

    Woodguy v2.0,

    I agree with your hypotheticals on the kind of dman that Edmonton could use more. However, there is the x factor of the typical Oiler fan. They like players like Jason Smith and Eric Gryba. They hates them players like Eberle, Schultz, and probably Auvitu. This doesn’t help this latter group of players to achieve to their potential imo.

  84. godot10 says:

    speeds: I have no idea as to the actual numbers, but I did see this article a few months ago suggesting LV is doing pretty well in ticket revenue.

    http://nhl.nbcsports.com/2017/07/17/foley-vegas-has-more-ticket-revenue-than-boston-philly-and-pittsburgh/

    Local TV, radio, and media revenue probably favour Philly and Boston over Vegas by a lot.

  85. Pescador says:

    godot10: If Khaira, Slepyshev, Puljujarvi, and Caggiula take a step forward this year, and if Benson gets healthy, and with Yamamoto,

    Chiarelli can say goodbye to Strome and Maroon next year, and keep Nugent-Hopkins.

    I like this line of thinking because I value RNH over the other 2, but by the sound of things Chiarelli is trying to sign Maroon right now.
    I don’t think Benson on the roster for 18/19 is realistic, if that’s what you are inferring

  86. BlueNoteNorth says:

    I likel Chiarelli’s concept.

    You can “afford” to pay 6 forwards top dollar.

    That does not imply that you have to deploy them all on the top 2 lines.

    So in the future you could have : McDavid, Draisaitl, Nugent-Hopkins, Lucic plus 2 others.

    The remaining forward positions are a blend of bridge contracts, aging vets and entry level players.

    You keep your core strength and move support players in and out as required, like Chicago.

    But like Chicago and before it Detroit, to work it needs young talent continually feeding the team.

  87. OriginalPouzar says:

    godot10: Byfuglien isn’t afraid of Maroon, and Byfulglien wasn’t taken off the ice because Maroon was too chicken to throw a punch at Byfuglien.

    Byfuglien isn’t going to take himself off the ice.So all Maroon was doing there was just a big chicken posturing.Heck Kailer could have done what Maroon did.Going up an talking to Byfuglien…anybody can do that.

    Those two aren’t going to fight in an exhibition game – what he did was exactly what needed to be done – to show that that type of stuff isn’t going to go without a reaction. Of course Buff isn’t scared – that’s not the point.

    Its shocking that anyone would actually question Maroon’s willingness to engage to protect his teamates – 8 fights last year and I believe all of them due to matters related to his teamates. I’m not a huge fighting guy by any means but this is definitely not lost on his teamates.

  88. BlueNoteNorth says:

    OriginalPouzar,

    Maroon can also get the point across that if you head hunt our stars I will run some of yours.

  89. Dustylegnd says:

    Except for the part where Bill Foley claims that the Golden Knights are already a top 6 revenue producing team

    godot10: Vegas likely has a negative effect on the cap.It is likely a below average revenue team…negative to cap.And the national TV contracts don’t get any bigger because of Vegas.

    The owners were happy with expansion, because they don’t have to share the expansion fees with the players and the share of expansion fees >> share of national TV revenue lost by sharing with one more team.

    Players like expansion because of 23 more jobs.

    But it is likely a negative to the cap.

  90. Crazy Pedestrian says:

    speeds:
    Maroon-CMD-Puljujarvi
    Lucic-LD-Yamamoto
    Jokinen-RNH-Strome

    Do the Oilers look at that sort of top 9?

    Seems like they are pretty high on Caggiula, so would expect him to factor in somewhere, also would be Khaira, Letestu, and Kassian?

    What about slepy?

  91. Woodguy v2.0 says:

    PerryK: If you’re not the burning bush, you must be close!

    It seems that Auvitu is missing the basics, when the puck is coming at him in the Neutral Zone.He loses his gaps skating backwards and has to turn to try and catch up to the play.He may be able to play with Gryba at his best, or maybe Fayne.But he cannot do very much defending even if the puck ends up in his corner!He has to be able to separate puck from the upcoming forward!

    He reminds me a lot of Laleggia, or Schultz at their very worst.If keeping him means that we have to switch Russel’s sides – No Thanks!Let’s face it, Russell is on this team to stay.That means that we cannot use him as RD.We need to work all other possibilities around that proposition.

    In my opinion, Auvitu is a victim of “No room at the Inn” scenario as far as LD is concerned.

    I’m thinking that if Peter doesn’t add another RHD Auvitu might be better at 3RD than Gryba even when you account for handedness.

    They could also run Nurse in the top 4 instead of Benning and put Russell on the RD.

    I think he wins 7D out of camp.

  92. Woodguy v2.0 says:

    The Original JDî: https://twitter.com/Moe_Jaber/status/911794257182076928

    Please who smile all the time are the best people.

    I love them.

  93. Woodguy v2.0 says:

    speeds: I’m guessing they are really trying to stay away from an overage for next year, so they not only need to build in enough room for expected bonuses, but also enough room to cover injuries, should they occur.

    Yeah, I think he’s avoiding that too.

    I still have them with ~$4MM in space when you account for the most likely bonuses.

  94. Dustylegnd says:

    hunter1909: With respect, the Oilers this season want to come out of the gate swinging for the fences, not babysitting/spoilingprospects like Lowe+MacT were infamous for.

    Let the kid go back to his junior team. He’s already able to say he’s played in NHL games.

    Great teams are run like a meritocracy, if Yamamoto is better than the rest of the players available at RW, you play him until he proves otherwise.

    The difference here is that the Oil have a number of players/prospects to choose from these days unlike the decade of darkness, why make decisions today that can be delayed till later, it is a fool who exercises an option prior to expiry

  95. Woodguy v2.0 says:

    Georges: Why would Maroon want to take Byfuglien off the ice?

    On the ice, Byfuglien is more dangerous to WPG than he is to their opponents.

    Have you seen big Buff “defend”?

    (errr… I hope he doesn’t know where I park my van down by the river.)

    Buff’s Relative GF% to team (played toughest comp last 4 years)

    20092010 -8.81
    20102011 16.26
    20112012 -6.09
    20122013 2.11
    20132014 -12.09
    20142015 1.19
    20152016 7.65
    20162017 0.35

    He’s good. Don’t know what happened in 13/14 though.

  96. Woodguy v2.0 says:

    tcho:
    Woodguy v2.0,

    I agree with your hypotheticals on the kind of dman that Edmonton could use more. However, there is the x factor of the typical Oiler fan. They like players like Jason Smith and Eric Gryba. They hates them players like Eberle, Schultz, and probably Auvitu. This doesn’t help this latter group of players to achieve to their potential imo.

    I’d argue that matters only in the extreme (like the end of Jultz in EDM) so its not much of a worry.

  97. Woodguy v2.0 says:

    Dustylegnd:
    Except for the part where Bill Foley claims that the Golden Knights are already a top 6 revenue producing team

    Foley said “ticket revenue”, not overall:

    In an interview with Forbes, Foley said the Golden Knights are “number five, six or seven in terms of ticket revenue in the league,” adding that they’re ahead of the Boston Bruins, Philadelphia Flyers and the two-time defending Stanley Cup champion Pittsburgh Penguins.

    Godot’s right that the local TV and radio revenues will be much less in Vegas.

    If their arena numbers are that high though, they’re probably not a drag on the cap.

  98. godot10 says:

    OriginalPouzar: Those two aren’t going to fight in an exhibition game – what he did was exactly what needed to be done – to show that that type of stuff isn’t going to go without a reaction. Of course Buff isn’t scared – that’s not the point.

    Its shocking that anyone would actually question Maroon’s willingness to engage to protect his teamates – 8 fights last year and I believe all of them due to matters related to his teamates.I’m not a huge fighting guy by any means but this is definitely not lost on his teamates.

    There is no cost to fighting Byfuglien in a pre-season game because it is a pre-season game. This is when one can safely take an instigator penalty and send a message to Byfuglien.

    All Maroon did was tell Byfuglien was that all he is ever going to do is talk.

  99. The Original JDî says:

    Dustylegnd: Bill Foley claims

    I believe his quote was about ticket revenue, not overall revenue. http://www.sportsnet.ca/hockey/nhl/golden-knights-owner-says-ticket-revenues-par-canadiens/

    The 15/16 NHL revenue was $4.1B, split 30 ways means about $137M per team. So using those old figures, the Vegas need to contribute that much to keep the cap flat. Suite revenue aside, that means an average ticket price of $186, and never a cold seat all season long.

    I’m not sure what all the other inputs are to HRR, but it seems that they might indeed be a drag on the cap.

  100. pocession charge says:

    godot10: There is no cost to fighting Byfuglien in a pre-season game because it is a pre-season game.This is when one can safely take an instigator penalty and send a message to Byfuglien.

    All Maroon did was tell Byfuglien was that all he is ever going to do is talk.

    No cost other than a potential injury. A broken hand or concussion would be a terrible way to start the year. All for some preseason bs? That doesn’t make sense.

  101. Munny says:

    MoneyDoctor: appreciating

    Lol… I don’t think this word means what you think it means.

    /”stevesmith”

    But yes, the exchange rate against USD has improved for CAD.

    No paper currency is allowed to appreciate. See the AB minimum wage increase Oct 1, a measure instituted because Gov’ts would rather spend money they don’t have and protect banks over caring for the poor and those on fixed incomes, no matter the political party.

    We will be shamed by History.

  102. OriginalPouzar says:

    Woodguy v2.0: I’m thinking that if Peter doesn’t add another RHD Auvitu might be better at 3RD than Gryba even when you account for handedness.

    They could also run Nurse in the top 4 instead of Benning and put Russell on the RD.

    I think he wins 7D out of camp.

    Russell at 2RD is a perverse result – he is materially less effective on the right side.

  103. The Original JDî says:

    Woodguy Knights’ revenue projection incoming…

  104. lynn says:

    Jujhar Khaira is going to be a good player on the ice and in the dressing room.

    LT is correct: Jujhar is establishing himself on the Oilers’ roster. He has had an impressive camp, adding more depth to the team. I love his potential and his mature perspective on being a member of the Oilers.

    https://www.nhl.com/oilers/video/post-game-raw–jujhar-khaira/t-277437406/c-52907003

  105. speeds says:

    Woodguy v2.0: Yeah, I think he’s avoiding that too.

    I still have them with ~$4MM in space when you account for the most likely bonuses.

    If they have 2 guys on the IR all time, they’d be cutting into that 4M pretty quickly if they still carry 23 players (maybe they look at carrying 22?).

    Maybe the thought is “Let’s play out 40-50 games with a cushion, barring a great opportunity to add someone, and re-assess as time progresses.”???

  106. OriginalPouzar says:

    Guelph down 4-0 in the third to Windsor – Samorukov is -2 with a shot on goal.

  107. who says:

    godot10: If Khaira, Slepyshev, Puljujarvi, and Caggiula take a step forward this year, and if Benson gets healthy, and with Yamamoto,

    Chiarelli can say goodbye to Strome and Maroon next year, and keep Nugent-Hopkins.

    Agreed. Nuge stays. Keep the best players.

  108. Crazy Pedestrian says:

    godot10: There is no cost to fighting Byfuglien in a pre-season game because it is a pre-season game.This is when one can safely take an instigator penalty and send a message to Byfuglien.

    All Maroon did was tell Byfuglien was that all he is ever going to do is talk.

    If you noticed that during that confrontation, buff was the one that didn’t want to throw down with maroon. Buff was just looking away and didn’t want anything to do with maroon. Definately looked like maroon wanted to go.

  109. Kinger_Oil.redux says:

    lynn:
    Jujhar Khaira is going to be a good player on the ice and in the dressing room.

    LT is correct: Jujhar is establishing himself on the Oilers’ roster. He has had an impressive camp, adding more depth to the team. I love his potential and his mature perspective on being a member of the Oilers.

    https://www.nhl.com/oilers/video/post-game-raw–jujhar-khaira/t-277437406/c-52907003

    – At 23, he’s applying to be a 4W, not being asked to score a lot, and just get hopefully get better.

    – “No pressure kid, but look whose chomping to take your spot”, says OIL MGMT

    – I have no doubt in the MacT era, he would have been pitched as a “power-forward C”, and mis-cast as the C of the 2nd line, and been thrown out of town by now

    – That’s what a good team, depth, intelligent management and the luxury of letting players marinate affords us.

  110. Pescador says:

    speeds:
    Maroon-CMD-Puljujarvi
    Lucic-LD-Yamamoto
    Jokinen-RNH-Strome

    Do the Oilers look at that sort of top 9?

    Seems like they are pretty high on Caggiula, so would expect him to factor in somewhere, also would be Khaira, Letestu, and Kassian?

    I don’t see that line up for this season, at least not consistently game over game.
    Seems much more likely for 18/19.
    FORWARDS:
    Maroon (est. $3.34) McDavid ($12.5) Puljujarvi ($925,000)
    Lucic ($6) Draisaitl ($8.5) Yamamoto ($925,000)
    Caggiula (est $2.25) Strome (est $3.8) Sleppy (est $2.75)
    Jokinen ($1) Khaira ($1) Kassian ($1.95)
    DEFENSE:
    Larsson ($4). Klefbom ($4)
    Nurse ($3.5). Benning ($3.5)
    Jones ($925,000). Russell ($4)
    GOAL:
    Talbot ($4.17) Back up (est $1.83).
    CAP HIT:
    I have $71.6M roughly, before bonuses. Can someone please help me with my bonus estimate?
    Also anyone I under/overpaid?
    Thanks

  111. Kinger_Oil.redux says:

    Pescador,

    – Where is Sek?

    – $7MM for Benning + Nurse is way too much for a 2nd pair + 3rd pair D: but if they progress a lot, great

    – Strome could be gone next year: who is he? We don’t know. $3.8 is total guess,and doubt he shows he’s worth more than Maroon, who you have at $3.3

    – Joki: he’s either gone, or signing for way more than $1MM

    – Besides that, your good!

  112. lynn says:

    Kinger_Oil.redux: – At 23, he’s applyingto be a 4W, not being asked to score a lot, and just get hopefully get better.

    – “No pressure kid, but if you don’t make it, look whose chomping to take your spot”, says OIL MGMT

    – I have no doubt in the McT era, he would have been pitched as a “power-forward C”, and mis-cast as the C of the 2nd line, and been thrown out of town by now

    – That’s what a good team, depth, intelligent management and the luxury of letting players marinate affords us.

    Yes, Khaira has been brought through the Oilers’ system in a proper manner. Too bad there aren’t other players from his draft year.

    The Oilers seem to be getting player development correct now, though, as you wrote.

  113. Pescador says:

    Kinger_Oil.redux:
    Pescador,

    – Where is Sek?

    – $7MM for Benning + Nurse is way too much for a 2nd pair + 3rd pair D: but if they progress a lot, great

    – Strome could be gone next year: who is he?We don’t know.$3.8 is total guess,and doubt he shows he’s worth more than Maroon, who you have at $3.3

    – Joki: he’s either gone, or signing for way more than $1MM

    – Besides that, your good!

    Aha yes Sekera, forgot that guy.
    Luckily with your savings recommendations on Benning & Nurse, I can now afford him.
    Appreciate your response,
    Bonuses?

  114. Munny says:

    speeds: Maybe the thought is “Let’s play out 40-50 games with a cushion, barring a great opportunity to add someone, and re-assess as time progresses.”???

    I think this is exactly the plan.

  115. Pescador says:

    Larsson ($4) Klefbom ($4)
    Sekera ($5.5) Benning ($2.75)
    Nurse ($2.25) Russell ($4)
    Jones
    I’m confident with this d-core at that price point. 18/19 season.

  116. Georges says:

    Woodguy v2.0: Buff’s Relative GF% to team (played toughest comp last 4 years)

    20092010-8.81
    2010201116.26
    20112012-6.09
    201220132.11
    20132014-12.09
    201420151.19
    201520167.65
    201620170.35

    He’s good.Don’t know what happened in 13/14 though.

    No beef with Buff and no basis other than the little I saw of his defensive play in the pre-season. Just some Sunday banter with godot.

    But you went and got numbers, so…

    From what I have, he has a slightly positive rel GF% with ATL/WPG (49.7 vs. 48.7) over those years. He’s good wouldn’t be the way I describe him, but he hurts WPG (as I suggested) isn’t right either.

    What does seem to hold is that Buff raises the temperature on both sides of the ice relative to his teammates, i.e., goal rates (for and against) go up. That’s why I thought he wasn’t helping his team on the defensive side. He makes up for it through his offensive play but the tradeoff doesn’t get WPG anywhere. They basically break even.

  117. hunter1909 says:

    Dustylegnd: Great teams are run like a meritocracy, if Yamamoto is better than the rest of the players available at RW, you play him until he proves otherwise.

    Excellent point!

    Of course it follows that: How in the world can you “prove” Admiral Yamamoto is better than playoff tested veterans in September? Certainly not in exhibition games.

    Dustylegnd: unlike the decade of darkness, why make decisions today that can be delayed till later, it is a fool who exercises an option prior to expiry

    Emphasis on who “the fool” is here; whether Edward Woodward in The Wicker Man movie or Lowe+MacT mismanaging the franchise for 15 years.

  118. who says:

    Pescador: https://oilersnation.com/2017/09/22/report-oilers-start-contract-talks-with-patrick-maroon/

    Yeah well I think I’ll wait and see what Maroon signs for, if he even signs, before I wave goodbye to Nuge.
    Lot of posters here seem to be in a big hurry to get rid of our third best forward. I say keep the strength down the middle. .

  119. leadfarmer says:

    The Original JDî:
    Woodguy Knights’ revenue projection incoming…

    But what about their penalty box slot machine prediction. With penalties being on the upswing and all

  120. Woodguy v2.0 says:

    The Original JDî:
    Woodguy Knights’ revenue projection incoming…

    You gave me the best TV data, but I still don’t dare guess what they get for local TV.

    $10MM?

    Seems low, but I don’t dare guess higher.

    I think EDM is over $25MM, but not sure.

  121. Woodguy v2.0 says:

    speeds: If they have 2 guys on the IR all time, they’d be cutting into that 4M pretty quickly if they still carry 23 players (maybe they look at carrying 22?).

    Maybe the thought is “Let’s play out 40-50 games with a cushion, barring a great opportunity to add someone, and re-assess as time progresses.”???

    Well he better bloody well add someone.

    Not spending to the cap in 97’s last cheap year is terrible.

    Peter spends to the cap every year, I expect this year to be no different.

  122. Woodguy v2.0 says:

    Kinger_Oil.redux,

    – Joki: he’s either gone, or signing for way more than $1MM

    He’ll be 35 next year.

    If he plays 82 this year then he’ll have played 973 games and made over $40MM in his career.

    My guess is that a shot at the Cup would probably take precedence over maximizing form $1MM to $2MM or so.

  123. Woodguy v2.0 says:

    Georges: No beef with Buff and no basis other than the little I saw of his defensive play in the pre-season. Just some Sunday banter with godot.

    But you went and got numbers, so…

    From what I have, he has a slightly positive rel GF% with ATL/WPG (49.7 vs. 48.7) over those years. He’s good wouldn’t be the way I describe him, but he hurts WPG (as I suggested) isn’t right either.

    What does seem to hold is that Buff raises the temperature on both sides of the ice relative to his teammates, i.e., goal rates (for and against) go up. That’s why I thought he wasn’t helping his team on the defensive side. He makes up for it through his offensive play but the tradeoff doesn’t get WPG anywhere. They basically break even.

    I’m not sure when he switched back to D though (in regards to his numbers)

    I think he’s worth much more as a Dman than foward.

    At 758 gp I wouldn’t expect him to give a shit about pre-season.

    Its like talking about practice. (“practice??!?!”)

  124. Pescador says:

    who: Yeah well I think I’ll wait and see what Maroon signs for, if he even signs, before I wave goodbye to Nuge.
    Lot of posters here seem to be in a big hurry to get rid of our third best forward. I say keep the strength down the middle. .

    You’re absolutely right, as I said earlier in the comments section I would prefer the Oilers kept RNH.
    His contract might be too expensive to keep, especially if the Oilers re-sign Maroon.
    My guess is 3 years $10M, but I said the same about Russell

  125. Zelepukin says:

    my gut feeling is that season we’ll see Nuge’s true value. For the first time in his career he won’t have to drag around Ebs and pick-up the defensive slack for both his wingers, while also facing tough matchups.

  126. Zelepukin says:

    If you had told me during Nuge’s first couple seasons that in a couple years we’d have 2 centres better than him and only through the draft, I would have laughed in your face.

  127. Soup Fascist says:

    godot10: Vegas likely has a negative effect on the cap.It is likely a below average revenue team…negative to cap.And the national TV contracts don’t get any bigger because of Vegas.

    The owners were happy with expansion, because they don’t have to share the expansion fees with the players and the share of expansion fees >> share of national TV revenue lost by sharing with one more team.

    Players like expansion because of 23 more jobs.

    But it is likely a negative to the cap.

    Taking in a few Vegas games this year. Ticket prices safely above average. This year anyway they won’t hurt league revenues.

  128. Jethro Tull says:

    Woodguy v2.0: I’m not sure when he switched back to D though (in regards to his numbers)

    I think he’s worth much more as a Dman than foward.

    At 758 gp I wouldn’t expect him to give a shit about pre-season.

    Its like talking about practice. (“practice??!?!”)

    It’s been very well documented that Buff doesn’t give a shit about preseason. He knows he’s not auditioning for a job. But he clearly doesn’t use it as a chance to dust off the cob webs and work on anything you think you’re weak on. We know he hasn’t historically kept himself in shape after the season ends, he’s relying on raw talent. He seems to me like one of though life, never pushing himself.

    I would argue that it’s the results themselves that are meaningless in preseason, but there’s always work to be done, and for what he’s paid, he might be professional about it.

  129. OriginalPouzar says:

    Woodguy v2.0: Well he better bloody well add someone.

    Not spending to the cap in 97’s last cheap year is terrible.

    Peter spends to the cap every year, I expect this year to be no different.

    We don’t know that he’s not spending to the cap even if he doesn’t bring in another player prior to October 4.

    He’s got two contract spots (1 if Yamamoto somehow stays).

    I believe he is looking to evaluate the current roster and see where he needs improvement, be it RW or RD or somewhere else.

  130. OriginalPouzar says:

    Woodguy v2.0:
    Kinger_Oil.redux,

    – Joki: he’s either gone, or signing for way more than $1MM

    He’ll be 35 next year.

    If he plays 82 this year then he’ll have played 973 games and made over $40MM in his career.

    My guess is that a shot at the Cup would probably take precedence over maximizing form $1MM to $2MM or so.

    If Jokinen plays well enough that the organization wants to re-sign him, I can’t see it for being near the league minimum – it will mean he’s had a material positive effect on the team and will clearly require a raise.

    Chiarelli is likely looking for “next year’s Jokinen” next spring (and each spring thereafter).

  131. Frank the dog says:

    Compare this to the time that the dementor was still trying to decide who should be on the team after the season had started.
    What a different world we are in today!

  132. Munny says:

    Woodguy v2.0,

    We can agree, though, that spending to the cap in September is incredibly stupid, right?

  133. Kinger_Oil.redux says:

    Woodguy v2.0:
    Kinger_Oil.redux,

    – Joki: he’s either gone, or signing for way more than $1MM

    He’ll be 35 next year.

    If he plays 82 this year then he’ll have played 973 games and made over $40MM in his career.

    My guess is that a shot at the Cup would probably take precedence over maximizing form $1MM to $2MM or so.

    – They are winning the cup this year btw

    – If Joki is effective 3W, this year, i.e.better than last year, not as good as 2 years ago, he’s going to be worth a lot more than 1MM

    – as for your guess, well that’s your opinion. I’m just stating facts relative to a players value

    – If he’s shown to be a worthwhile player, he will cost the Oil a multiple of $1MM: for real

    – I thought you said you didn’t like only opinions: I guess only yours?

  134. Kinger_Oil.redux says:

    Zelepukin:
    my gut feeling is that season we’ll see Nuge’s true value. For the first time in his career he won’t have to drag around Ebs and pick-up the defensive slack for both his wingers, while also facing tough matchups.

    – my gut says same . Its such a good point you raise: your an awesome poster

  135. Professor Q says:

    Snowman:
    Woodguy v2.0,

    Yeah Todd getting your name wrong can’t be a good sign. Especially for a big name trade. I know it was just after the game but lordy, you gotta think he knows Kailer’s name and Jesse’s name and I’m pretty damn sure he’s never forgotten Connor’s name..

    To be fair, Todd messes up Puljujärvi’s name consistently.

  136. Jaxon says:

    Pescador:
    At a lash,
    2018/19 Center- RW depth chart barring trades;
    Gord. Yessie Pulloutmy Poolparty
    Derman Chancellor. Kammoto Dragon.
    Dylan Strome. Sleppski
    JJ.Krass / other.
    Sadly RNH has to go because Cap.
    Lordy, that Russell contract, the more Benning emerges the worse it looks.

    The only saving grace of that contract is that when the Oilers desperately need cap space next summer, buying out Russell will save them almost $3.4M (he’ll only cost them 611k next season if he’s bought out. I predict he gets bought out. Lucic and Sekera don’t save the team much if they’re bought out. That might be the way they keep Nuge (along with letting Maroon walk).

  137. Jaxon says:

    PerryK: If keeping him means that we have to switch Russel’s sides – No Thanks! Let’s face it, Russell is on this team to stay. That means that we cannot use him as RD. We need to work all other possibilities around that proposition.

    Not necessarily. I predict they buyout Russell next summer. His contract is structured so that if they buy him out then, they only pay him 611,000 for the 2018-2019 season. I thought it was a boat anchor until I noticed that. Maybe a brilliant contract in the end.

  138. OriginalPouzar says:

    I’m on the pro-Russell train now.

    Well, not quite, but I am glad to see that, so far, he’s looked much better (by my eye) on the left side which was predicted. Small sample size and middling competition, however, in each game they’ve played, they have been the top pairing with the “tough minutes”.

    I’m simply worried about what happens when Auvitu is in the lineup over Gryba and the potential for Russell to shift to 2RD.

  139. GMB3 says:

    OriginalPouzar:
    I’m on the pro-Russell train now.

    Well, not quite, but I am glad to see that, so far, he’s looked much better (by my eye) on the left side which was predicted. Small sample size and middling competition, however, in each game they’ve played, they have been the top pairing with the “tough minutes”.

    I’m simply worried about what happens when Auvitu is in the lineup over Gryba and the potential for Russell to shift to 2RD.

    Why would Auvitu being in the lineup shift Russell to 2RD. Chances are Gryba is never the 2RD. Auvitu in the lineup may push Nurse to his right side or Auvitu will play the right side

  140. OriginalPouzar says:

    GMB3: Why would Auvitu being in the lineup shift Russell to 2RD. Chances are Gryba is never the 2RD. Auvitu in the lineup may push Nurse to his right side or Auvitu will play the right side

    Auvitu in the lineup presumably means that Gryba is out so they would need someone to play the right side. Nurse is definitely not going to shift to the right side, he’s still learning to be an NHL player on his natural side. The logical choice for the coach is the player that played there last year. I just hope that they would keep Benning at 2RD (if he’s performing well_) and drop Russelll to 3RD but I don’t see it.

  141. Woodguy v2.0 says:

    Kinger_Oil.redux: – They are winning the cup this year btw

    – If Joki is effective 3W, this year, i.e.better than last year, not as good as 2 years ago, he’s going to be worth a lot more than 1MM

    – as for your guess, well that’s your opinion.I’m just stating facts relative to a players value

    – If he’s shown to be a worthwhile player, he will cost the Oil a multiple of $1MM: for real

    – I thought you said you didn’t like only opinions: I guess only yours?

    You’ll notice that when I state opinion it’s clearly stated as such and not as fact.

    The key phrase in what I wrote is “my guess”

    That’s the difference.

    Stating opinion as fact is when things go off the rails.

    Also,

    Once again I engage in polite conversation and once again you’re a dink.

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