HERE COME THE PEOPLE IN GREY

When I worked in sales, there were entire years of uneasy. There is a weekly nut (budget goal) and there is an end of the week and your entire body feels the ticking of the clock. Go long enough outside your comfort zone and you either succeed out of fear (of failure) or you find another job. We’re creatures of habit, we like the comfort that comes with control, repetition and consistency. Sometimes we create false ceilings and get comfortable with a plateau, and then someone comes along and challenges us to find higher ground. The real fear is finding out there is no higher place for you than the place you’re standing today.

RYAN STROME IN A RECTANGLE

  • This is from Puck IQ and is genius. I’ve posted it so many times you might be sick of it, but not me.
  • It tells us Strome was most effective against gritensity last season, but was below average relative to other Islanders in all three disciplines.
  • This is what he’s up against, this is the points where I write “the problem is you develop a past.”
  • Strome has a past. He may have been framed by addled thinking in Brooklyn but he owns it, at least until proving otherwise. His chance to prove otherwise may include time with Connor McDavid as RW.
  • Todd McLellan’s comments on Saturday were a challenge, probably backed up in a private conversation.
  • Todd McLellan’s comments on Saturday do not mean a roster shuffle. It’s too early to make a decision on way or another.

THE BATTLE AT RW

Edmonton enters the week with some questions on the starboard side and a plethora of possible options. The prospects vying for spots are good to great, but none all come with at least one question mark.

  • Ryan Strome is coming off two seasons of disappointment offensively. He needs to shoot the puck while playing with 97, has eight shots in two games (1-1-2).
  • Anton Slepyshev hasn’t  played yet. He’s at 80 percent now according to reports, you’d like to see him play at least two games this week.
  • Jesse Puljujarvi was slowed by an injury last week, played in just his second game of preseason on Saturday. He is now 2gp, 2-1-3 with five shots on goal, courtesy a fantastic 20 minutes with CMD. His touch pass on the McDavid goal was sublime, the young man is a unique set of skills in a fast, rambunctious package.
  • Drake Caggiula may have hammered down the RW spot on Leon’s line, he is 2gp, 2-2-4 on the preseason. He has speed, can play in all three disciplines, and has chem with McDavid if it comes to that as an option for 1line.
  • Kailer Yamamoto is 3gp, 4-1-5, as seven shots, and appears to be the smartest man on the ice at all times. Cerebral player with ridiculous hands, plus speed, forechecks like a demon. I had him No. 11 in the draft, really liked him. Even I’m surprised at how well he has done up until now. If he has more games like the first three, the Oilers won’t be able to send him back to Spokane.
  • Zack Kassian has a spot in the lineup, no question. It’s likely on the fourth unit with Mark Letestu.
  • Iiro Pakarinen is likely an extra forward to start the season, but could go higher if others falter.

OUTSIDE SOLUTIONS

I wrote about acquiring Josh Leivo the other day, also wonder if Jarome Iginla is on the Oilers’ radar. Jaromir Jagr isn’t coming here, but he’d be an excellent option if only for the jersey sales. I think Peter Chiarelli has this right, though. Take your Cod Liver Oil by finding internal solutions at RW.  If they all don’t work, make a trade in-season.

THE BATTLE ON DEFENSE

The first six look set (Klefbom-Larsson, Russell-Benning, Nurse-Gryba) but we could see an acquisition here. As for the rest, I’d say Yohann Auvitu still has the edge despite some wobble. Ryan Stanton is in there, Dillon Simpson and Mark Fayne, too. Colin Miller would be a helluva get at this point, but we’ll see how everyone performs this week.

PLAYING TIME

If a bubble player gets two games this week, the team is considering that player seriously. The next round of cuts will get us close to 23 men. I’ll guess the next cuts are Mark Fayne, Ryan Stanton, Ty Rattie, Brad Malone.

LOWDOWN WITH LOWETIDE

At 10 this morning, TSN1260. Scheduled to appear:

  • Pierre Lebrun, TSN & The Athletic. Massive week for NHL teams, Oilers still have some major decisions.
  • Andy McNamara, TSN. NFL weekend was nuts.
  • Jason Gregor, TSN1260. Oilers getting a good look at RW’s, who has the edge?
  • Alex Thomas, The Oilers Rig. Who gets voted off the island next?

10-1260 text, @Lowetide on twitter. See you on the radio!

 

 

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168 Responses to "HERE COME THE PEOPLE IN GREY"

  1. frjohnk says:

    A post before 8:30?

    I wonder if I can comment before Original Pouzar?

  2. frjohnk says:

    frjohnk:
    A post before 8:30?

    I wonder if I can comment before Original Pouzar?

    Yes, I win!

  3. Dirk Dangler says:

    frjohnk: Yes, I win!

    If you’re not first, you’re last.

  4. Professor Q says:

    Seems like a reasonable deal, non?

    “City of Edmonton offers to pay for Flames’ new arena in exchange for naming rights to ‘Eat Shit Calgary’ Place”

    https://www.thebeaverton.com/2017/09/city-edmonton-offers-pay-flames-new-stadium-exchange-naming-rights-eat-shit-calgary-place/

  5. Professor Q says:

    Dirk Dangler: If you’re not first, you’re last.

    If you’re not last, you’re first.

  6. OriginalPouzar says:

    I think they go back to JP on the right wing with Nuge and Jokinen and Strome at 1RW with McDavid and Maroon.

    Perhaps Puljijarvi moving up to 1RW for an offensive push (as opposed to Drai as anticipated) will be an option for McLellan during the season? I believe JP is a more material offensive player than Strom (ceiling not proven ability).

    Big game tonight for guys like JP and Yamamoto (and Malone and Simpson/Stanton) as the verbal is CAR will ice a veteran NHL lineup – lets hope that comes to fruition.

    I think the McDavid line may sit and maybe we see Yamamoto on the Drai line in place of Caggulia?

  7. frjohnk says:

    Oh yeah, good post LT!

    Love the battle at RW. Most did not agree with you that Kailor may get a longer look. Who knows how long he stays, even if its just for 1 more game, he has blown the doors off and exceeded expectations.

    So many possibilities on how right wing shapes up. While Draisaitl is slotted to play center, it wont take long for the McDavid- Draisaitl combo to be put back together when we are down a goal in third.

  8. mit167 says:

    Hey Lowetide… doesn’t look like I can make the game tonight. Would you like to take your daughter. l still have your info from before. So just a yes works

  9. Lois Lowe says:

    I still want Jagr. I’d buy a jersey in a hot minute.

  10. Whatif says:

    I really like the idea of adding Colin Miller to our defensive corps. He has a skill set that would appear to fit and should be available for a reasonable price. Is there any advantage to Chiarelli with his former Bruin connection? Does he have a positive relationship with Miller?

  11. jimmers2 says:

    One thing about JP’s 3rd period with McDavid is that his goals came off plays in crowds and confusion in front of the net. There was a nifty shot in there and a super deft pass as well, but also a bit of net front garbage. An ability to get opportunistic shots on net out of broken and chaotic plays isn’t necessarily how the scouting report drew him but it ought to give comfort to those who were worrying if he has a big league shot.

  12. OriginalPouzar says:

    If the right wing group is able to produce in the last few games of preseason at levels even close to the first half of preseason, there will be no need to acquire an additional RW prior to the season. I think that will solidify the “wait and see/keep the powder dry” mentality.

    I’d prefer any currency (contract spot, cap hit, assets) to be used on a d-man, if anything. I like our depth for the bottom pairing with guys like Stanton and Simpson but we don’t have depth for any sort of injury in the top 4.

    I’m not sure any acquisition can be reasonably made at this time that would provide top 4 depth at a nominal cost.

  13. OriginalPouzar says:

    frjohnk:
    A post before 8:30?

    I wonder if I can comment before Original Pouzar?

    I blame my wife for being tardy this morning and traffic after dropping her off at work to downtown.

    Now, if Lowetide would stop being so lazy and would post sometime between 6am (when I get home from the gym) and 7:45am (when I leave to drive my wife to work and then head to the office), I will never be tardy.

    I feel shame.

  14. TO10801 says:

    I would keep an eye on Reinhart over the next week. Last night he played the least amount of any D-man including Garrison, Miller, Hunt, McNabb, and Bischoff. He played no special teams. With only 2 RHD and the ridiculous preseason Hunt is having, I would not be shocked to see Reinhart hit waivers. Maybe Chai makes a trade for him (again)?

  15. dustrock says:

    Who was it that said 90% of the difference between the stars and the guys who flame out of the league is mental?

    From early evidence, I’m not concerned about Yamamotor making it to the NHL because he seems to have that kind of drive and strength to excel. I mean, obviously I have no real idea, but it sure seems like it.

    Maybe Strome is talented but doesn’t have the drive. I think you need to be a little unbalanced to succeed at that level.

  16. OriginalPouzar says:

    frjohnk:

    So many possibilities on how right wing shapes up.While Draisaitl is slotted to play center, it wont take long for the McDavid- Draisaitl combo to be put back together when we are down a goal in third.

    I know it was just one game against a half-AHL lineup in preseason, but there is a story dating back to their time together last season – perhaps JP is slotted in as 3RW and gets the push up the lineup when a goal is needed.

    The sample size is tiny still but he has had nothing but success with Connor – small sample sizes eventually become bigger sample sizes.

  17. OriginalPouzar says:

    TO10801:
    I would keep an eye on Reinhart over the next week. Last night he played the least amount of any D-man including Garrison, Miller, Hunt, McNabb, and Bischoff. He played no special teams. With only 2 RHD and the ridiculous preseason Hunt is having, I would not be shocked to see Reinhart hit waivers. Maybe Chai makes a trade for him (again)?

    I think we have enough depth at 3LD with Auvitu, Simpson and Stanton – if a d-man is acquired, I would be hopeful he’d be cover on the right side.

  18. Jaxon says:

    LT,

    Next time you take a look at Next season’s cap crunch I wonder if you could look into the possibility of a Kris Russell buyout? Buying him out will only cost the Oilers 611k next season (saving almost $3.4M). I hated that contract when I first saw it, but now I’m thinking the structure of the contract may have been the plan all along. Maybe it has always been Chiarelli’s intention to buy him out next summer. He was up against it when Sekera went down so Russell had all the leverage (4 years, $4M and NMC), so Chiarelli signed him, but built himself an out for next summer when he needs the cap space.

    Russell buyout cap hits, savings:
    2018-19 $611,111 cap hit, $3,388,889 savings
    2019-20 $1,111,111 cap hit, $2,888,889 savings
    2020-21 $3,611,111 cap hit, $388,889 savings
    2021-22 $1,111,111 cap hit, -$1,111,111 savings
    2022-23 $1,111,111 cap hit, -$1,111,111 savings
    2023-24 $1,111,111 cap hit, -$1,111,111 savings

    As the cap goes up by probably $2M each year (to $81M by 2020-21), and players come off the books or can be traded (Sekera), then they will be able to afford the 2020-21 cap hit of Russell’s buyout. If Maroon walks and Russell gets bought out, maybe they can keep Nugent-Hopkins. If two of the young left handers step up after two more seasons of SHL/AHL/NHL experience (Nurse, Paigin, Jones, Lagesson), maybe they trade Sekera, too.

  19. frjohnk says:

    Jaxon:
    LT,

    Next time you take a look at Next season’s cap crunch I wonder if you could look into the possibility of a Kris Russell buyout? Buying him out will only cost the Oilers 611k next season (saving almost $3.4M). I hated that contract when I first saw it, but now I’m thinking the structure of the contract may have been the plan all along. Maybe it has always been Chiarelli’s intention to buy him out next summer. He was up against it when Sekera went down so Russell had all the leverage (4 years, $4M and NMC), so Chiarelli signed him, but built himself an out for next summer when he needs the cap space.

    Russell buyout cap hits, savings:
    2018-19$611,111 cap hit, $3,388,889 savings
    2019-20 $1,111,111 cap hit, $2,888,889 savings
    2020-21 $3,611,111 cap hit, $388,889 savings
    2021-22 $1,111,111 cap hit, -$1,111,111 savings
    2022-23 $1,111,111 cap hit, -$1,111,111 savings
    2023-24 $1,111,111 cap hit, -$1,111,111 savings

    As the cap goes up by probably $2M each year (to $81M by 2020-21), and players come off the books or can be traded (Sekera), then they will be able to afford the 2020-21 cap hit of Russell’s buyout. If Maroon walks and Russell gets bought out, maybe they can keep Nugent-Hopkins. If two of the young left handers step up after two more seasons of SHL/AHL/NHL experience (Nurse, Paigin, Jones, Lagesson), maybe they trade Sekera, too.

    In 2020-21, the Oilers would have almost $5M in dead cap space. ( with Russell and Pouliot buyouts)

    If Chia signed Russell to that deal so that he could buy him out in 1 year, Chia should be fired.

    I know that a lot of people do not like Russell but he is a serviceable Dman, only issues I see with him is his deal is not a discount and the NMC is terrible.

  20. Doug McLachlan says:

    Jaxon:
    LT,

    Next time you take a look at Next season’s cap crunch I wonder if you could look into the possibility of a Kris Russell buyout? Buying him out will only cost the Oilers 611k next season (saving almost $3.4M). I hated that contract when I first saw it, but now I’m thinking the structure of the contract may have been the plan all along. Maybe it has always been Chiarelli’s intention to buy him out next summer. He was up against it when Sekera went down so Russell had all the leverage (4 years, $4M and NMC), so Chiarelli signed him, but built himself an out for next summer when he needs the cap space.

    Russell buyout cap hits, savings:
    2018-19$611,111 cap hit, $3,388,889 savings
    2019-20 $1,111,111 cap hit, $2,888,889 savings
    2020-21 $3,611,111 cap hit, $388,889 savings
    2021-22 $1,111,111 cap hit, -$1,111,111 savings
    2022-23 $1,111,111 cap hit, -$1,111,111 savings
    2023-24 $1,111,111 cap hit, -$1,111,111 savings

    As the cap goes up by probably $2M each year (to $81M by 2020-21), and players come off the books or can be traded (Sekera), then they will be able to afford the 2020-21 cap hit of Russell’s buyout. If Maroon walks and Russell gets bought out, maybe they can keep Nugent-Hopkins. If two of the young left handers step up after two more seasons of SHL/AHL/NHL experience (Nurse, Paigin, Jones, Lagesson), maybe they trade Sekera, too.

    When you first posted this on Friday I couldn’t believe that this was the option Chia had created for himself.

    The cap crunch of Russell’s contract – if we are prepared to let him go and he won’t accept a trade – gets pushed down the road to 2020-21. Hmmm, why is that year significant – oh, right our regularly scheduled NHL lockout.

    I admit to being generally impressed with Chia’s play calling thus far but really, if this is the cap ace he is hiding up his sleeve – well, very nicely done Peter. Very nicely done.

  21. Dirk Dangler says:

    With only 3 preseason games remaining, will we get an opportunity to see some possible regular season combinations which aren’t necessarily the first choice starting lineup? For instance, will we get a chance to see how Strome does in his mirror man position? Or will the last 3 games be used for finalizing the roster and building further chemistry?

    Lines / Pairings I’d like to see before preseason ends:

    Lucic – Strome – Slepyshev (if he can go)
    Need to see this version of the mirror men deployment. Obviously the Drai version works, so that doesn’t need to be tested in my opinion. This line has promise, as it has been discussed that Lucic plays well with RHC.

    Caggiula – RNH – Puljujarvi
    I have a feeling that this line may see some time together if we have a healthy forward group. Although Jokinen looks great so far in that 3LW role, his boots are slowing down and he may be rested at certain points this season. This line has some potential, and allows that 4th line to stay in tact while keeping Cags in the lineup.

    Auvitu-Russell
    This pairing is likely to see some action together before Sekera returns. Would be nice for these two to get a sense for each other on the ice.

    Ideally these combinations are tested today (Slepy notwithstanding), leaving the final two games for deploying the anticipated starting lineup. Allows for a last chance game for the final roster cuts tonight, and then the remaining two games can be used by the coach to get his opening night roster accustomed to the playing time and deployment we’ll be looking for on October 4th.

    Also avoids the Dallas Eakins preseason strategy.

  22. OriginalPouzar says:

    frjohnk: In 2020-21, the Oilers would have almost $5M in dead cap space. ( with Russell and Pouliot buyouts)

    If Chia signed Russell to that deal so that he could buy him out in 1 year, Chia should be fired.

    I know that a lot of people do not like Russell but he is a serviceable Dman, only issues I see with him is his deal is not a discount and the NMC is terrible.

    Well, the contract is terrible. As you said, he’s a “serviceable Dman” yet the GM lost on AAV (cap hit), term and trade protection. 0 for 3.

    Its a bad contract but the player is here and, you know what, he is important to the team.

    If he gets to stay on the left side, I think he will be a much more effective player than he was last year as far as transitioning the puck and creating offence and prolonging offence.

    I’ve already seen him make plays in pre-season on the left side that show offensive instincts that I don’t think he could make on his off-side.

    He does have a few seasons of 30 plus points.

    If he can defend like he did last year but also move/transition the puck with more possession, he’ll be a very serviceable 2nd pairing guy.

  23. frjohnk says:

    OriginalPouzar: If he can defend like he did last year but also move/transition the puck with more possession, he’ll be a very serviceable 2nd pairing guy.

    Spector and Rishaug have said Russell is a 4/5. For some, their opinion means little, but I would tend to agree with them here. I agree with you that it seems so far, he is better on the left side

  24. adamjames says:

    Ahh A Muswell Hillbillies reference. What a fantastic album.

  25. Dirk Dangler says:

    OriginalPouzar: small sample sizes eventually become bigger sample sizes.

    No offense, but this statement is dumb today, and was dumb when Woodguy said it yesterday. You’re two of my favorite posters, but I’m not buying it.

    I get what you’re saying that a large sample size has to start from somewhere. And that is true. But isn’t the whole point of a small sample size that there is volatility in the numbers, and they shouldn’t be relied upon in these instances. To make a statement like this completely undermines the premise of a small sample size, and is only used when convenient for the point in debate.

    Kinda seems like having your cake and eating it too.

  26. jm363561 says:

    Jaxon:
    LT,

    Next time you take a look at Next season’s cap crunch I wonder if you could look into the possibility of a Kris Russell buyout? Buying him out will only cost the Oilers 611k next season (saving almost $3.4M). I hated that contract when I first saw it, but now I’m thinking the structure of the contract may have been the plan all along. Maybe it has always been Chiarelli’s intention to buy him out next summer. He was up against it when Sekera went down so Russell had all the leverage (4 years, $4M and NMC), so Chiarelli signed him, but built himself an out for next summer when he needs the cap space.

    Russell buyout cap hits, savings:
    2018-19$611,111 cap hit, $3,388,889 savings
    2019-20 $1,111,111 cap hit, $2,888,889 savings
    2020-21 $3,611,111 cap hit, $388,889 savings
    2021-22 $1,111,111 cap hit, -$1,111,111 savings
    2022-23 $1,111,111 cap hit, -$1,111,111 savings
    2023-24 $1,111,111 cap hit, -$1,111,111 savings
    ==========

    In real dollars we pay (I assume) KR $16m for one season – more than McD! Katz would be really thrilled. The contract structure certainly looks odd but I just can’t see it.

  27. Clarkenstein says:

    “The real fear is finding out there is no higher place for you than the place you’re standing today.”

    No such place my dear friend LT!! ALWAYS a higher level. A good mentor, leader, etc. will help us find that level.

  28. hunter1909 says:

    Hunter1909’s Oilers Death March is back for the 2017-18 season!

    Here’s how you play: Pick the exact number of points you think the Oilers will have at the end of the season.

    Then, after the usual training camp hypejobs stop and the real NHL starts, Oilers usually lose 2-3 defencemen and spent the rest of the season chasing/debating the lottery. What better way to enjoy those pointless, meaningless games than The Hunter1909 Official Oilers Death March(TM)?

    Last year had well over 300 players. Prizes being sorted as this message gets posted for last season’s winners who will be notified at a later date.

    Contest Entry: Open until puck drop on opening night. Think of a giant guillotine blade – once the first puck drops it’s all over.

  29. jzed says:

    Have only seen him play twice, but I feel he is trying his best not to remind anyone of the dear departed. Strong back checking, staying in his lane. In other words, trying to not make mistakes as opposed to pinning his ears back and going all carpe diem. He’s new, give him some time before we all write him off. TMac will make it clear to him he needs to elevate and that he can.

  30. dustrock says:

    Jaxon:
    LT,

    Next time you take a look at Next season’s cap crunch I wonder if you could look into the possibility of a Kris Russell buyout? Buying him out will only cost the Oilers 611k next season (saving almost $3.4M). I hated that contract when I first saw it, but now I’m thinking the structure of the contract may have been the plan all along. Maybe it has always been Chiarelli’s intention to buy him out next summer. He was up against it when Sekera went down so Russell had all the leverage (4 years, $4M and NMC), so Chiarelli signed him, but built himself an out for next summer when he needs the cap space.

    Russell buyout cap hits, savings:
    2018-19$611,111 cap hit, $3,388,889 savings
    2019-20 $1,111,111 cap hit, $2,888,889 savings
    2020-21 $3,611,111 cap hit, $388,889 savings
    2021-22 $1,111,111 cap hit, -$1,111,111 savings
    2022-23 $1,111,111 cap hit, -$1,111,111 savings
    2023-24 $1,111,111 cap hit, -$1,111,111 savings

    As the cap goes up by probably $2M each year (to $81M by 2020-21), and players come off the books or can be traded (Sekera), then they will be able to afford the 2020-21 cap hit of Russell’s buyout. If Maroon walks and Russell gets bought out, maybe they can keep Nugent-Hopkins. If two of the young left handers step up after two more seasons of SHL/AHL/NHL experience (Nurse, Paigin, Jones, Lagesson), maybe they trade Sekera, too.

    Asked on twitter.

    Response from WheatNOil was:

    Russell buy out in 2018 means $611K cap hit in 18/19, $1.11m in 19/20, $3.6m in 20/21, and $1.11m for next 3 years after.

  31. Dirk Dangler says:

    hunter1909,

    Hunter, can you put me down for 103 points? Please and thank you.

  32. flea says:

    With Slepyshev being out so late into camp, maybe the team sends him to Bakersfield to get up to speed while letting Yamamoto get a few real games (if he continues to show well).

    I don’t think Slepy needs waivers.

    They definitely have too many RW at this point who are playing well. Yamamoto maybe breaks as one of the extra forwards and they extend his NHL stay into November, waiting on injuries. They press box him and bring him in slowly.

    Also wouldn’t be suprised to see a transaction for another defender. (But no idea who goes out)

  33. elgruntus says:

    hunter1909,

    Hunter, put me down for 160. I’m an optimist.

  34. Dustylegnd says:

    frjohnk:
    Oh yeah, good post LT!

    Love the battle at RW.Most did not agree with you that Kailor may get a longer look. Who knows how long he stays, even if its just for 1 more game, he has blown the doors off and exceeded expectations.

    So many possibilities on how right wing shapes up.While Draisaitl is slotted to play center, it wont take long for the McDavid- Draisaitl combo to be put back together when we are down a goal in third.

    Gentlemen, as I said before, if Yamamoto is performing with more drive, a more effective forecheck, and putting up more points, why would the Oil not keep him and have a 9 game look?

    Yam is 19 on September 29th, has already played 3 WHL seasons,and to the eye seems much better prepared for the North American game than Puljujarvi….

    The Oil hold an option on Yam ( 9 game free look), unless he crashes and burns against the soon to be seen Legit NHL talent, why would we exercise the option early? Successful organizations are Meritocratic……there is no justification for sending him back to Jr because he is perceived to be too small

  35. OriginalPouzar says:

    Dirk Dangler: No offense, but this statement is dumb today, and was dumb when Woodguy said it yesterday. You’re two of my favorite posters, but I’m not buying it.

    I get what you’re saying that a large sample size has to start from somewhere. And that is true. But isn’t the whole point of a small sample size that there is volatility in the numbers, and they shouldn’t be relied upon in these instances. To make a statement like this completely undermines the premise of a small sample size, and is only used when convenient for the point in debate.

    Kinda seems like having your cake and eating it too.

    I know what you are saying – I’m not saying that because we have a small sample size that it will continue, just that it might continue and, as of now, I’m not going to disregard it completely – its all we have to go on with respect to these two players playing together.

  36. dustrock says:

    So the idea with Russell is you buy him out then assume that Jones or Bear will take his place, otherwise, if you sign someone expensive, you’re just adding to the cap problems.

    I think they’ll do this.

    But it also means that one of Sekera or Nurse will have to be moved too, and quite frankly, I wonder if Nurse is the guy they trade.

    Jones isn’t the same player as Nurse but I wonder if next year the gap won’t be as noticeable.

  37. The Original JDî says:

    Hunter,

    Micah will take 88.4 points: http://hockeyviz.com/txt/preview1718

  38. OriginalPouzar says:

    flea:
    With Slepyshev being out so late into camp, maybe the team sends him to Bakersfield to get up to speed while letting Yamamoto get a few real games (if he continues to show well).

    I don’t think Slepy needs waivers.

    They definitely have too many RW at this point who are playing well. Yamamoto maybe breaks as one of the extra forwards and they extend his NHL stay into November, waiting on injuries. They press box him and bring him in slowly.

    Also wouldn’t be suprised to see a transaction for another defender. (But no idea who goes out)

    Slep remains exempt from waivers.

    Tonight should go a ways in determining if any NHL games is a realistic proposition for Yamamoto.

  39. Georges says:

    frjohnk: Spector and Rishaug have said Russell is a 4/5.For some, their opinion means little, but I would tend to agree with them here.I agree with you that it seems so far, he is better on the left side

    4/5 Russell is 13th among defensemen on EV TOI since 13/14, his first year in Calgary. He’s 35th on overall TOI. Hartley really liked playing him. So did Ruff. TMac cut down his minutes. But he was still 42nd on EV TOI in 16-17, 68th on overall TOI. He’s the most overused 4/5 in the league.

  40. Coffeys_Messy_eh says:

    The Original JDî,

    I’m taking all Oilers predictions (Dom’s at The Athletic, Micah’s) with a 6’1″, 185 pound grain of salt in the shape of Connor McDavid. I really believe that prediction models sell him short both in his personal stats, and his effect on his teammates. Assuming, Gord willing, he stays healthy of course.

  41. OriginalPouzar says:

    As per Reid Wilkins:

    Maroon-McDavid-Puljujarvi
    Lucic-Draisaitl-Caggiula
    Jokinen-RNH-Strome
    Khaira-Letestu-Kassian
    Malone-Kelly-Yamamoto

    Push for JP continues.

    Yamamoto looking like the player out at this point.

    Who knows if this will stick, for all we know Yama plays 1RW tonight.

  42. OriginalPouzar says:

    I do think it makes sense to have Yamamoto on a real skill line against good competition so we can see how that looks. We may not get that which likely indicates his re-assignment before camp finishes.

  43. Woodguy v2.0 says:

    Dirk Dangler: No offense, but this statement is dumb today, and was dumb when Woodguy said it yesterday. You’re two of my favorite posters, but I’m not buying it.

    I get what you’re saying that a large sample size has to start from somewhere. And that is true. But isn’t the whole point of a small sample size that there is volatility in the numbers, and they shouldn’t be relied upon in these instances. To make a statement like this completely undermines the premise of a small sample size, and is only used when convenient for the point in debate.

    Kinda seems like having your cake and eating it too.

    What it means is “here’s the early returns and the direction its going, but we can’t bank on it yet”

    It does not mean “this is what the larger sample size will look like”

    JP’s small sample with 97 is off the charts in 89 minutes.

    It won’t be off the charts in 500 minutes.

    Its generally accepted that ~500 min of two players together give us a reasonable picture to project the future.

    The first 89 minutes of that first 500 are in the can and cannot be changed and will have significant influence on the larger sample.

    hence: “small samples grow up to be big samples”

  44. Profit says:

    The Original JDî,

    Life Coffey above I am not convinced by the large models yet.

    There are so many confounding elements in a season (injuries being one of the largest ones) to make these long term models like Dom’s and Micah’s to be nothing more than mildly interesting games like GM mode in NHL 17.

    SJS leading the Pacific by a long shot also doesn’t pass the smell test (and the fact that everyone else is essentially equal doesn’t help).

    I wouldn’t put any money on any of the outputs of these models. And this is coming from a guy who ran a multi-factor model for years forecasting energy prices. I love my models, but also acutely aware of their weaknesses.

  45. stush18 says:

    Georges: 4/5 Russell is 13th among defensemen on EV TOI since 13/14, his first year in Calgary. He’s 35th on overall TOI. Hartley really liked playing him. So did Ruff. TMac cut down his minutes. But he was still 42nd on EV TOI in 16-17, 68th on overall TOI. He’s the most overused 4/5 in the league.

    Not only that, but he’s one of the most consistent defenders in when looking at “against metrics”.

    Now everyone loves using percentages, because of course it’s all about what you give/get. But he IS a high end defender. I don’t think there’s is any discounting that, doesn’t really matter what metric you look at.

    He just doesn’t put out any offense.

    I’m going to love watching his results from the left side this year.

  46. jm363561 says:

    The Oil hold an option on Yam ( 9 game free look), unless he crashes and burns against the soon to be seen Legit NHL talent, why would we exercise the option early?Successful organizations areMeritocratic……there is no justification for sending him back to Jr because he is perceived to be too small

    ============

    We have this argument every year – Gagner, MPS, Nuge, spring to mind as players I did not want to see in the NHL in their draft year. (Hall, Drai and McD I was okay with.) Others felt that as they were clearly better than other roster hopefuls they should be in the team. I have been amazed by the guy but my view is Yamo should not be considered this year as the risk of a career impacting injury is just too high. The long term health of the player trumps merit.

    I also doubt he would have the stamina for an 82 game season but that is a secondary issue.

    Not saying I am right. JMHO.

  47. stush18 says:

    Also, I’ve been pretty satisfied with what I’ve seen from strome.

    New team, systems, line mates. It’s not easy, and lots of confusion from him seems to be more because of lack of chemistry than lack of skills.

    8 shots in 2 games is pretty good. If he kept that up all year he would produce, no question

  48. stush18 says:

    jm363561,

    I agree.

    The only reason I keep him up is for a nine game audition because slepy is rehabbing his ankle. I mean CHI sent back debrincant. I don’t see why we can’t.

  49. The Original JDî says:

    Profit: Life Coffey above I am not convinced by the large models yet.

    I thought it was interesting, nonetheless. That SJ has such an easier schedule in theory, could be a big factor.

    Let’s hope that our boys Larsen, Nilsson, and Sammy Garner can put a dent in that ‘easy’ schedule.

  50. Georges says:

    The Original JDî:
    Hunter,

    Micah will take 88.4 points: http://hockeyviz.com/txt/preview1718

    Not enough points. For all teams. Total points awarded per game has averaged between 2.22 and 2.25 since the introduction of the shootout in 2005-06. Micah’s model averages 2.18.

  51. Kinger_Oil.redux says:

    Dustylegnd,

    – Great post LT!

    – Dusty:I was alluding to this last post: don’t see downside on 9 games: he gets to see what he needs to work on, it doesn’t burn a year, it allows Sleppy to be 100%, and they can give pool the Drai treatment

  52. Jethro Tull says:

    The Original JDî:
    Hunter,

    Micah will take 88.4 points: http://hockeyviz.com/txt/preview1718

    I would be interested to see if Micah has punched in the stats for other years to see if Edgar came up with the cup winner.

    A lot of this seems to come from the weight he personally assigns to certain things. Reading the piece, which i enjoyed, he mentions several times that he ranked certain teams because of their perceived defensive strength, even team that weren’t that good last year, such as the LA Kings.

    Team history/sample sizes are starting to worry me, as there are so many variable, and of course, next year has no memory of what has happened in years past. Look at Vancouver. Declining stars, poor asset management, poor procurement and player development and they’re in the hole after a few years as President’s trophy winners. Washington may well be next, if they’re not careful. However, Micah has LA above the Oilers (as indeed are the Flames) due to a strong probability of their defense not being as bad as historically shown.

    It’s just that I don’t think enough weight has been put on scoring, which has been declining, so should be worth more today. So that’s why he has the Flames above the Oilers, but lordy, i can see the team down the highway struggling to score…

  53. Jethro Tull says:

    stush18,

    High end defensemen put out offense. Double true.

  54. digger50 says:

    Strome may help but I doubt very much he is the answer.

    Imagine this roster with no Strome on it – still looks fine. Imagine this roster with Hamonic on the back end. Substantial difference.

    Strome was the wrong target.

  55. McSorley33 says:

    Yes, I know it is only pre-season, but Ryan Strome has not shown me anything.

    Kailer, has been the complete opposite for me. Never thought he would be this smart with the puck and his hockey sense.

    Easy to say send him down…but for the inconvenient fact he is outplaying a lot of our RW options.

  56. Yeti says:

    Just a hypothetical question bouncing around my head: if the Oil were able to reclaim Reinhart on waivers, should the GM then turnaround and try to trade Nurse for immediate RHD help?

  57. Pouzar says:

    Yeti:
    Just a hypothetical question bouncing around my head: if the Oil were able to reclaim Reinhart on waivers, should the GM then turnaround and try to trade Nurse for immediate RHD help?

    Why would they need to trade for Reinhart to do that?
    There are 4 LH D-men on the roster now I would rather have over Reinhart.

  58. dustrock says:

    digger50:
    Strome may help but I doubt very much he is the answer.

    Imagine this roster with no Strome on it – still looks fine. Imagine this roster with Hamonic on the back end. Substantial difference.

    Strome was the wrong target.

    He’s got a $2.5m cap hit and can play well enough to hang around the roster, and he’s gone after this year.

    If he wants to stick around, he has to push off Sleppy, Jesse, and Yamamotor. If they push him away, they’re still on ELCs.

    If he plays well enough to get re-signed, it won’t be for a ton of money.

    Trading Eberle for him makes the team worse this year but I get why Chiarelli did it.

  59. VOR says:

    Dirk Dangler,

    Small sample sizes have issues but there are statistical methods for deriving valuable information from these flawed samples..

    Maybe the following quote will make clear that throwing out small sample sizes is not always a good idea:

    “Statistical analysis with small samples is like making astronomical observations with binoculars. You are limited to seeing big things: planets, stars, moons and the occasional comet. But just because you don’t have access to a high-powered telescope doesn’t mean you cannot conduct astronomy. Galileo, in fact, discovered Jupiter’s moons with a telescope with the same power as many of today’s binoculars.” Jeff Sauro.

    On January 7th and 8th of 1610 Galileo Galilei made a series of observations that shook the world. Galileo pointed his home-built telescope towards Jupiter, and saw a peculiar sight: two tiny “stars” to the east of Jupiter, and one to the west, all arranged in a tight straight line along the ecliptic path with Jupiter itself. The next night the 8th he saw the three “stars” again but now they were all to the west of Jupiter. He knew right then he was on to something. He must have been beyond frustrated when the next night it was cloudy but on January 10th, he confirmed his idea. Jupiter had moons orbiting it.

    He spent months gathering more data, driving the sample size up, and eventually published one of the great scientific papers of all time (which by the way is very readable and accessible as long as you get the English translation which is called Sidereal Messenger).

    The point is that if three observations are enough to change astronomy 86 minutes might be enough to convince us that JP and Connor belong together. By deploying the existing statistical tools for analyzing small sample sizes we can possibly determine whether we are observing a noisy signal or a massive effect.

  60. OriginalPouzar says:

    So, we are looking at essentially our opening night lineup with Yamamoto filling in for Kass and a couple tweeners replacing the third pairing:

    19-97-98
    27-29-91
    36-93-18
    16-55-56 (Yama)

    77-6
    2-83
    Auvitu or Simpson and Fayne

  61. digger50 says:

    dustrock: He’s got a $2.5m cap hit and can play well enough to hang around the roster, and he’s gone after this year.

    If he wants to stick around, he has to push off Sleppy, Jesse, and Yamamotor.If they push him away, they’re still on ELCs.

    If he plays well enough to get re-signed, it won’t be for a ton of money.

    Trading Eberle for him makes the team worse this year but I get why Chiarelli did it.

    Thank you for the reply, but Why is it okay to get worse this year? This needs to be challenged.

    If the move had little value then why make it? Cap savings and short term help could have come in a number of different forms.

    But I digress. Strome may be a good player for us, not trying to trash him.

    My particular point being that a “better” deal should have been made, one that offered a bigger difference maker to the roster. We have all settled in with Strome, but a glance in the rear view mirror still suggests a different target might have been a good idea. In this case Hamonic.

  62. flea says:

    Personally, I think Strome is the possible RNH replacement if he has a strong season. If they can make the cap dollars work to keep RNH, and Strome has a meh season, maybe they sign him to replace Letestu – who’s bee great but getting older and might get a decent contract with another strong season.

    Wouldn’t be surprised to see Strome stick on RNH’s wing for the season. If they get some injuries, he might slide to center. (the coach alluded to the fact that they see him as a center)

  63. The Original JDî says:


    EP Transfers‏ @ep_transfers 3m3 minutes ago

    Confirmed: Lane Bauer (F) | Kamloops Blazers -> Bakersfield Condors | http://eliteprospects.com/t.php?id=324619 #AHL

    http://www.eliteprospects.com/player.php?player=224829

  64. Dirk Dangler says:

    OriginalPouzar,

    Woodguy v2.0,

    Thanks for the responses. I agree with what you are both trying to say in regards to JP with CMD.

    Just think the wording of that saying in particular could be inferred as you assuming that the trend would continue. Which is not what you are trying to say.

    Maybe something like “small sample sizes contribute to larger sample sizes”.

    I digress, it’s just semantics…

    GOILERS!

  65. digger50 says:

    Profit:
    The Original JDî,

    Life Coffey above I am not convinced by the large models yet.

    There are so many confounding elements in a season (injuries being one of the largest ones) to make these long term models like Dom’s and Micah’s to be nothing more than mildly interesting games like GM mode in NHL 17.

    SJS leading the Pacific by a long shot also doesn’t pass the smell test (and the fact that everyone else is essentially equal doesn’t help).

    I wouldn’t put any money on any of the outputs of these models. And this is coming from a guy who ran a multi-factor model for years forecasting energy prices. I love my models, but also acutely aware of their weaknesses.

    Profit, what are your models predicting for energy prices this year? Lord knows we could use a bump.

    Recently another wise poster warned of a market top. Im interested in hearing more if you have a short blurb of advice.

  66. Professor Q says:

    Yeti:
    Just a hypothetical question bouncing around my head: if the Oil were able to reclaim Reinhart on waivers, should the GM then turnaround and try to trade Nurse for immediate RHD help?

    No.

  67. Dustylegnd says:

    jm363561:
    The Oil hold an option on Yam ( 9 game free look), unless he crashes and burns against the soon to be seen Legit NHL talent, why would we exercise the option early?Successful organizations areMeritocratic……there is no justification for sending him back to Jr because he is perceived to be too small

    ============

    We have this argument every year – Gagner, MPS, Nuge, spring to mind as players I did not want to see in the NHL in their draft year. (Hall, Drai and McD I was okay with.) Others felt that as they were clearly better than other roster hopefuls they should be in the team. I have been amazed by the guy but my view is Yamo should not be considered this year as the risk of a career impacting injury is just too high. The long term health of the player trumps merit.

    I also doubt he would have the stamina for an 82 game season but that is a secondary issue.

    Not saying I am right. JMHO.

    Ahh yes, the classic apples vs oranges comparison, the Oilers were a dumpster fire for a full decade, running training camps with a complete lack of talent, depth and competition, and yes players like Gagner and Hopkins rose to the top of the heap and were placed on the NHL roster at the alleged expense of their long term development. Yet after the 2014-2015 season many were convinced Hopkins was the Oilers best and most valuable asset.

    The current Oilers are very talented and really quite deep at most positions, so if he shines, he is shining above players supposedly much better prepared for pro hockey. The real question is this: does Yamo benefit from a 4th year in the WHL playing against boys or is he further ahead to practice with some of the most talented players on the planet at a non stop NHL pace shooting on NHL goalies?

    Is it out of the question that Yamo can be very effectively spotted over say 50-60 of the most favourable Oilers match-ups while learning to be a pro while training with other pros?

  68. Woodguy v2.0 says:

    VOR:
    Dirk Dangler,

    Small sample sizes have issues but there are statistical methods for deriving valuable information from these flawed samples..

    Maybe the following quote will make clear that throwing out small sample sizes is not always a good idea:

    “Statistical analysis with small samples is like making astronomical observations with binoculars. You are limited to seeing big things: planets, stars, moons and the occasional comet.But just because you don’t have access to a high-powered telescope doesn’t mean you cannot conduct astronomy. Galileo, in fact, discovered Jupiter’s moons with a telescope with the same power as many of today’s binoculars.” Jeff Sauro.

    On January 7th and 8th of 1610 Galileo Galilei made a series of observations that shook the world. Galileo pointed his home-built telescope towards Jupiter, and saw a peculiar sight: two tiny “stars” to the east of Jupiter, and one to the west, all arranged in a tight straight line along the ecliptic path with Jupiter itself. The next night the 8th he saw the three “stars” again but now they were all to the west of Jupiter. He knew right then he was on to something. He must have been beyond frustrated when the next night it was cloudy but on January 10th, he confirmed his idea. Jupiter had moons orbiting it.

    He spent months gathering more data, driving the sample size up, and eventually published one of the great scientific papers of all time (which by the way is very readable and accessible as long as you get the English translation which is called Sidereal Messenger).

    The point is that if three observations are enough to change astronomy 86 minutes might be enough to convince us that JP and Connor belong together. By deploying the existing statistical tools for analyzing small sample sizes we can possibly determine whether we are observing a noisy signal or a massive effect.

    Awesome as always Vor.

    Also,

    The reason I bring up 500 min is that the Baysian error bars don’t change much from 500 to 1000.

    G says we can use 300 min but I’m too conservative for that.

    Note: I hope I got the above right, G is much more conversant in this than I am.

  69. Woodguy v2.0 says:

    OriginalPouzar:
    So, we are looking at essentially our opening night lineup with Yamamoto filling in for Kass and a couple tweeners replacing the third pairing:

    19-97-98
    27-29-91
    36-93-18
    16-55-56 (Yama)

    77-6
    2-83
    Auvitu or Simpson and Fayne

    If those top 3 lines stay for the first month then I can see 36-93-18 getting the high % of TOI vs Elite F.

    Never a question that 97 sees the best of the Dcorps but lots of coaches will avoid putting their best scorers out vs 97 because they won’t have the puck enough.

  70. Dirk Dangler says:

    VOR,

    I wasn’t trying to dismiss that there is valuable information contained in small samples. I was only trying to acknowledge that the trend within the small sample size cannot be guaranteed to continue in order to produce enough data that the larger sample will match the smaller sample. Which is something we all know, and is the reason for the ‘small sample size’ disclaimer in the first place.

    My hang up was on the phrasing (PHRASING!). The words ‘becomes’ and ‘turns in to’ infers that the trend will continue. At least to me it does.

    I did find your post informative though. I’m not sure how my explanation above would relate back to your moons of Jupiter anecdote. Perhaps Gallileo would have discovered more moons? Or discovered this?

  71. Professor Q says:

    On the Lowetide:

    It was Dylan Strome who played with McDavid in Erie, not Ryan.

    Did you guys just pull a McLellan? 😉

  72. Woodguy v2.0 says:

    Professor Q:
    On the Lowetide:

    It was Dylan Strome who played with McDavid in Erie, not Ryan.

    Did you guys just pull a McLellan? 😉

    97 hung out with both Strome’s in the summer and knew Ryan before he joined the team.

  73. Professor Q says:

    Woodguy v2.0: 97 hung out with both Strome’s in the summer and knew Ryan before he joined the team.

    Yes, I know. I’m from around here. 😉

    Lived near CuJo, too.

    But chemistry from Erie Otters is worth more than chemistry from pickup hockey.

    It was more tongue-in-cheek jostling, anyway.

  74. OriginalPouzar says:

    digger50: Thank you for the reply, but Why is it okay to get worse this year?This needs to be challenged.

    If the move had little value then why make it? Cap savings and short term help could have come in a number of different forms.

    But I digress. Strome may be a good player for us, not trying to trash him.

    My particular point being that a “better” deal should have been made, one that offered a bigger difference maker to the roster. We have all settled in with Strome, but a glance in the rear view mirror still suggests a different target might have been a good idea. In this case Hamonic.

    I don’t necessarily agree but some would argue that the deal does not make us worse as Jordan needed to go (part of the old culture) and the replacement provides more balance and versatility along with the cap savings.

    While I don’t think it can be argued that, as far as pure offensive production, the better player is going out, however, that doesn’t necessarily mean the team is worse (i.e Hall for Larsson).

  75. OriginalPouzar says:

    flea:
    Personally, I think Strome is the possible RNH replacement if he has a strong season. If they can make the cap dollars work to keep RNH, and Strome has a meh season, maybe they sign him to replace Letestu – who’s bee great but getting older and might get a decent contract with another strong season.

    Wouldn’t be surprised to see Strome stick on RNH’s wing for the season. If they get some injuries, he might slide to center. (the coach alluded to the fact that they see him as a center)

    While Strome could be the 3C going forward, I don’t think he can replace what Nuge provides on the ice as far as responsibility combined with skill.

  76. Kinger_Oil.redux says:

    OriginalPouzar: While Strome could be the 3C going forward, I don’t think he can replace what Nuge provides on the ice as far as responsibility combined with skill.

    – You can see though what the Oil are doing. 3 Steve Austins ($18MM) <<< McD + Drai ($21MM)

    – It is a futile exercise to guess what real management and coaching and the 3 austins would look like, and incredible to think that unless we win the Cup this year, we are going to win Cups without any of them.

    – Winning the Cup (or something like losing to the Penguins in the final), and RNH being a big factor in the playoffs is the only scenario that saves his bacon. But he needs to be really valuable this year

  77. Yeti says:

    Kinger_Oil.redux: – Winning the Cup (or something like losing to the Penguins in the final), and RNH being a big factor in the playoffs is the only scenario that saves his bacon. But he needs to be really valuable this year

    But wouldn’t the potential success of RNH this season ensure that he would price himself out of next year’s team?

  78. Woodguy v2.0 says:

    Jethro Tull: I would be interested to see if Micah has punched in the stats for other years to see if Edgar came up with the cup winner.

    A lot of this seems to come from the weight he personally assigns to certain things.Reading the piece, which i enjoyed, he mentions several times that he ranked certain teams because of their perceived defensive strength, even team that weren’t that good last year, such as the LA Kings.

    Team history/sample sizes are starting to worry me, as there are so many variable, and of course, next year has no memory of what has happened in years past.Look at Vancouver.Declining stars, poor asset management, poor procurement and player development and they’re in the hole after a few years as President’s trophy winners.Washington may well be next, if they’re not careful.However, Micah has LA above the Oilers (as indeed are the Flames) due to a strong probability of their defense not being as bad as historically shown.

    It’s just that I don’t think enough weight has been put on scoring, which has been declining, so should be worth more today.So that’s why he has the Flames above the Oilers, but lordy, i can see the team down the highway struggling to score…

    I was in Micha’s Sour Candy challenge last year where you had to pick every team’s points and give a range. The wider the range the less the multiplier, but if the points were out of the range at the end you got 0.

    There were almost 70 entrants. Manny’s model came 3rd last. Micah didn’t do much better.

    I was in the top 5 until the end of the season. I finished ~11th iirc.

    My simple model weight goalies, Dmen, forward groups and special teams. Nothing too fancy.

    Looking at Manny and Micah’s models outputs the first thing I think is that “they don’t weight goaltending high enough or they regress the goalie’s results too much”

    Big differences between their models though. Manny had EDM with 101 and Micah’s has them at 88.

  79. Woodguy v2.0 says:

    Manny joining the Nation Network.

    Good move for both parties I’d think.

    https://oilersnation.com/2017/09/25/corsica-joins-the-nation-network/?utm_source=dlvr.it&utm_medium=twitter

  80. Robinthe403 says:

    hunter1909,

    Hunter,

    Please put me down for a cool 107.

    Thanks,

    Robinthe403

  81. Woodguy v2.0 says:

    Professor Q: Yes, I know. I’m from around here.

    Lived near CuJo, too.

    But chemistry from Erie Otters is worth more than chemistry from pickup hockey.

    It was more tongue-in-cheek jostling, anyway.

    Apologies if I offended.

    As you know I’m close to being incapable of discerning tone or intent.

  82. Profit says:

    digger50,

    My model is retired, so I don’t have any cutting edge info, but I do keep up on trends.

    I like natural gas a bit more than oil right now, but I’m in the camp that we’ll see a slow rise from now until $75/bbl but it could take another year or two.

    I see little which would indicate a strong retracement to sub $40. The risks are asymmetric right now. That being said, I know a guy who generally knows his stuff and he’s a big oil bear but most of what he’s been talking to me about has to do with demand side stuff out 10+ years (electric cars and move away from oil in the transportation sector) which I don’t really care about in a 1 – 3 year trade.

    Bottom line is that we’re consuming more oil than we’re finding (by a large degree) and at some point that is going to cause prices to snap upwards, as long as it happens before demand erodes (which I think it will).

    Also those are general comments which may not be applicable to Canadian pricing due to other factors (pipeline availability/spreads etc).

  83. stush18 says:

    Jethro Tull:
    stush18,

    High end defensemen put out offense.Double true.

    I meant he was a high end “defender”, not defense man.

    Poor wording I suppose on my part.

  84. stush18 says:

    Woodguy v2.0: Apologies if I offended.

    As you know I’m close to being incapable of discerning tone or intent.

    Can’t figure out handedness either!

  85. Woodguy v2.0 says:

    stush18: Can’t figure out handedness either!

    That’s my phone

  86. Kinger_Oil.redux says:

    Yeti: But wouldn’t the potential success of RNH this season ensure that he would price himself out of next year’s team?

    – He’s signed untill 20/21 @ $6MM – He’s got to play above that $6MM to stay IMO…

    – Between Letetsu, Strome, Maroon all needing new money, and RNH: he’s got to make it a hard choice

  87. Woodguy v2.0 says:

    The final standings are gone (were on Micah’s site), but I was 5th as of Feb 4th.

    https://twitter.com/IneffectiveMath/status/827985456285548545

  88. Woodguy v2.0 says:

    Woodguy v2.0,

    Big differences between their models though. Manny had EDM with 101 and Micah’s has them at 88.

    Here’s something funny.

    My model spit out 95 points at me for the Oilers and that’s almost exactly between Manny and Micah.

    I think we have it surrounded.

    I did my model before the whole increased number of PP opportunities came to light.

    I’m going to have to add weight to the PP part.

    Given their excellent PP1 and good PP2 it probably changes the Oilers to about 97.

    Go figure.

  89. stush18 says:

    Yeti:
    Just a hypothetical question bouncing around my head: if the Oil were able to reclaim Reinhart on waivers, should the GM then turnaround and try to trade Nurse for immediate RHD help?

    I would. I’m in the small minority, but I think reinhart and nurse are equal dmen, just they play the game differently. Nurse is rambunctious but gets scrambly, whereas reinhart is calm, but takes too long sometimes making decisions.

    He played very well in his playoff game last year, and the year before I thought he played a little better than nurse, and if I remember the numbers support it.

    Does Winnipeg do nurse + for trouba? Or Myers?

    I can’t see chiarelli dealing nurse within the division, so how about to Florida for pysyk? Or Columbus for savard?

    Klefbom-Larsson
    Russell-trouba/pysyk
    Reinhart-benning

    Looks a lot better to me.

  90. stush18 says:

    Woodguy v2.0:
    Woodguy v2.0,

    Big differences between their models though. Manny had EDM with 101 and Micah’s has them at 88.

    Here’s something funny.

    My model spit out 95 points at me for the Oilers and that’s almost exactly between Manny and Micah.

    I think we have it surrounded.

    I did my model before the whole increased number of PP opportunities came to light.

    I’m going to have to add weight to the PP part.

    Given their excellent PP1 and good PP2 it probably changes the Oilers to about 97.

    Go figure.

    Lol I would hope we have it surrounded if our range goes from 88-103.

  91. OriginalPouzar says:

    Yeti: But wouldn’t the potential success of RNH this season ensure that he would price himself out of next year’s team?

    How so?

    Nuge’s cap hit for next year (and the year after) is fixed.

  92. Doug McLachlan says:

    dustrock,

    Key thing to note about the “expensive” year of the Russell buyout is that it takes place in 20/21, when the CBA is set to be renegotiated (hopefully without the need for a lengthy lock-out).

    Ever since the introduction of the cap, teams have been able to buy their way out of their cap issues. Clear the decks and reset. I don’t think it is unreasonable to view this as another such opportunity.

  93. Georges says:

    stush18: Lol I would hope we have it surrounded if our range goes from 88-103.

    El Gruntus has 160. And I remember someone going with 69 (?) points because old habits. That should surround it.

  94. OriginalPouzar says:

    So, Corsica partnering with the Nation Network is a pretty big deal, is it not?

  95. Yeti says:

    OriginalPouzar: How so?

    Nuge’s cap hit for next year (and the year after) is fixed.

    Yep. Just ignore me. I really shouldn’t venture out of the himalayas too often because I make quite an ass of myself.

  96. JustWatt says:

    Doug McLachlan:
    dustrock,

    Key thing to note about the “expensive” year of the Russell buyout is that it takes place in 20/21, when the CBA is set to be renegotiated (hopefully without the need for a lengthy lock-out).

    Ever since the introduction of the cap, teams have been able to buy their way out of their cap issues.Clear the decks and reset.I don’t think it is unreasonable to view this as another such opportunity.

    This doesn’t seem as useful to me as some here are suggesting. That potential buy out period is 3/4 of the way through Russel’s contract, how is that helpful if he starts to not be worth his pay as soon as next season? Not that I hate Russel, just playing devil’s advocate.

  97. Yeti says:

    Georges: El Gruntus has 160. And I remember someone going with 69 (?) points because old habits. That should surround it.

    My 69 captures the unthinkable scenario wherein McDavid breaks a bone in the second game while Talbot decides to quit hockey to join a monastery for a life of quiet contemplation (it’s where Steve Tambellini went).

  98. hunter1909 says:

    jm363561:
    The Oil hold an option on Yam ( 9 game free look), unless he crashes and burns against the soon to be seen Legit NHL talent, why would we exercise the option early?Successful organizations areMeritocratic……there is no justification for sending him back to Jr because he is perceived to be too small

    ============

    We have this argument every year – Gagner, MPS, Nuge, spring to mind as players I did not want to see in the NHL in their draft year. (Hall, Drai and McD I was okay with.) Others felt that as they were clearly better than other roster hopefuls they should be in the team. I have been amazed by the guy but my view is Yamo should not be considered this year as the risk of a career impacting injury is just too high. The long term health of the player trumps merit.

    I also doubt he would have the stamina for an 82 game season but that is a secondary issue.

    Not saying I am right. JMHO.

    You’re right.

  99. Georges says:

    Yeti: My 69 captures the unthinkable scenario wherein McDavid breaks a bone in the second game while Talbot decides to quit hockey to join a monastery for a life of quiet contemplation (it’s where Steve Tambellini went).

    Yeti! It was you!

    My apologies for not remembering. I tried all kinds of searches. Glad I got the 69 correct.

    What are monastery folk like by the way? Good neighbors?

  100. stush18 says:

    OriginalPouzar:
    So, Corsica partnering with the Nation Network is a pretty big deal, is it not?

    I wonder how hard the athletic tried to get manny?

    Stealing him and his site up would be a massive add

  101. OriginalPouzar says:

    Nova was suggesting as such on the twitter.

  102. digger50 says:

    Profit:
    digger50,

    My model is retired, so I don’t have any cutting edge info, but I do keep up on trends.

    I like natural gas a bit more than oil right now, but I’m in the camp that we’ll see a slow rise from now until $75/bbl but it could take another year or two.

    I see little which would indicate a strong retracement to sub $40. The risks are asymmetric right now.That being said, I know a guy who generally knows his stuff and he’s a big oil bear but most of what he’s been talking to me about has to do with demand side stuff out 10+ years (electric cars and move away from oil in the transportation sector) which I don’t really care about in a 1 – 3 year trade.

    Bottom line is that we’re consuming more oil than we’re finding (by a large degree) and at some point that is going to cause prices to snap upwards, as long as it happens before demand erodes (which I think it will).

    Also those are general comments which may not be applicable to Canadian pricing due to other factors (pipeline availability/spreads etc).

    Appreciate the words, it’s a large subject.

    Thanks.

  103. jdhardy says:

    JustWatt: This doesn’t seem as useful to me as some here are suggesting. That potential buy out period is 3/4 of the way through Russel’s contract, how is that helpful if he starts to not be worth his pay as soon as next season? Not that I hate Russel, just playing devil’s advocate.

    It’s not a post-lockout compliance buyout, it’s just a regular buyout that happens to have a huge cap hit in the year when (sadly, most likely) the NHL will be at least partially shut down. So if they buy him out after next season, the bulk of the cap-hit damage won’t matter since it falls during the lockout season. (He still gets paid the actual dollars, but that’s Katz’s problem.)

    The risk is that he’s bought out and there’s no lockout. Then it gets interesting.

  104. elgruntus says:

    Georges: El Gruntus has 160. And I remember someone going with 69 (?) points because old habits. That should surround it.

    Actually, my model had 164, but that would be ridiculous 🙂

  105. season not played says:

    Somewhat odd to edit that post LT.

  106. Doug McLachlan says:

    JustWatt: This doesn’t seem as useful to me as some here are suggesting. That potential buy out period is 3/4 of the way through Russel’s contract, how is that helpful if he starts to not be worth his pay as soon as next season? Not that I hate Russel, just playing devil’s advocate.

    A little context.

    On Friday, in the midst of a discussion about how could the Oilers resign Maroon without guaranteeing that RNH’s $6M contract had to be dealt, Jaxon pointed out that one option to get around the cap crunch was to buy-out Kris Russell.

    Buy-outs are never a great plan but sometimes are necessary. Rarely would you do one so soon after signing but the truth is that Russell’s deal is an odd contract set-up that shifted most of the buy-out cost to the last year of the deal – coincidently the same year as the CBA is set to be renegotiated.

    All speculation of course but if you can free up $3.4M in cap space next year, that may give you the wiggle-room you need to hold on to RNH and do the needing re-ups for Nurse, Benning, etc.

    I tend to look at this as another option for Chia, if he wants to use it.

    A far preferable option is to go to Kris Russell and explain the cap crunch situation, his option to buy him out but his preference to trade him if he’ll agree to waive his no-move. Again, its all about flexibility and options.

    I hope that the shift to the left-side results in a real statistical bounce-back for KR. Like many here, I don’t love his game as much as TMac does and Hartley did but I also freely admit that he’s a real NHL d-man on a team that went without many for a long, long time. The contract, like many ufa deals, was too much for too long – the structure suggests that Chia knew that and was structuring it to give him some flexibility.

  107. Lowetide says:

    season not played:
    Somewhat odd to edit that post LT.

    You’re trolling. I know it, you know it, we all know it. If you want to avoid being edited, take out all of the words that may cause people to get huffy. I can’t change the rules for you, season.

  108. Lowetide says:

    OriginalPouzar:
    So, Corsica partnering with the Nation Network is a pretty big deal, is it not?

    Yes. Yes it is.

  109. Lowetide says:

    mit167:
    Hey Lowetide… doesn’t look like I can make the game tonight. Would you like to take your daughter.l still have your info from before.So just a yes works

    Bah, can’t make it and didn’t see this until now. Sorry for delay!

  110. Georges says:

    Maybe PC signed Russell to that contract because PC wanted to sign Russell to that contract.

    If actions reveal intentions, he has the 4 defensemen he wants, all signed for the next 4 years. The defensemen he’s not sure about, well he hasn’t signed them yet.

    As for RNH, I’ll take PC at his word (he wants to keep RNH) and assume he wants to spend the bulk of his forward money on a handful of players and find mostly young guys and an occasional vet with whatever he has left.

    It’s cap hell if you assume regular pay raises that fill out the middle and a large core that needs to stick together. Not cap hell if it’s a small core and an ever-changing non-core. If your core is successful, you’ll find willing trade partners for the players you need to move out. Because those non-core players will also have been successful.

  111. digger50 says:

    OriginalPouzar: I don’t necessarily agree but some would argue that the deal does not make us worse as Jordan needed to go (part of the old culture) and the replacement provides more balance and versatility along with the cap savings.

    While I don’t think it can be argued that, as far as pure offensive production, the better player is going out, however, that doesn’t necessarily mean the team is worse (i.e Hall for Larsson).

    pouzar, I wrote a post that didn’t go through. But basically it was who would you rather question:

    For this season

    Have Strome in the mix for a top 9 role. …….. OR

    Hamonic on the roster for a second pairing RHD role?

  112. mit167 says:

    No prob… probably not the last game I won’t be able to drive down for. If anybody else would like a pair of tickets to the game tonight. I’d hate for them to go to waste. I like giving them to Lowetide as my own of giving to the site. If anyone wants them. Just leave your name and email. A donation to the site not required but would be nice.

  113. Georges says:

    elgruntus: Actually, my model had 164, but that would be ridiculous

    Beautiful and unattainable. A model model.

  114. OriginalPouzar says:

    jdhardy: It’s not a post-lockout compliance buyout, it’s just a regular buyout that happens to have a huge cap hit in the year when (sadly, most likely) the NHL will be at least partially shut down. So if they buy him out after next season, the bulk of the cap-hit damage won’t matter since it falls during the lockout season. (He still gets paid the actual dollars, but that’s Katz’s problem.)

    The risk is that he’s bought out and there’s no lockout. Then it gets interesting.

    Even if there is a lockout, this is no guarantee that the eventually agreed upon CBA and ancillary arrangements will allow for that cap hit from the previous buyout to get off the books.

  115. Nuclear leak says:

    When people suggest Nuge+ Or Nurse+ For another teams commodity.. especially an org like Winnipeg.

    Look at the past trades Chia has done recently regarding established talent, when he’s traded Hall and Ebs in 1 for 1’s, it’s also informing other managers that’s he’s laying down a track record..

    If Nuge or Nurse are moved, their won’t be any + added from the Oilers end for a Trouba or Myers type.

  116. Doug McLachlan says:

    jdhardy,

    You said, “The risk is that he’s bought out and there’s no lockout. Then it gets interesting.”

    Yes and no.

    I hope there is no lockout but that still means a new look CBA.

    Every time the CBA has changed since the introduction of the Cap there has been some mechanism or mechanisms to allow teams to redress their cap issues from the previous cap. Buyout compliance being one but there are others tweaks as well, IIRC.

    Clearing off dead cap space is one such option that MAY be available to Chia but you are right, no guarantee that happens.

    If the Oilers have to hold on to that dead cap space will it be significant?

    They are already dealing with Pouliot’s $1.3M for the next four years. A buy-out of Russell would be $611K for next year, $1.111M for the year after, $3.889M for the 20/21 season, and $1.111M for the following 3 years.

    $5M or so in dead cap space in 20/21. The cap is currently $75M. The NHLPA hates upping the cap when the revenue doesn’t justify it as that simply increases escrow while artificially increasing the cap but in spite of their reservations the only time the NHLPA hasn’t utilized the full 5% escalator was this year because the inclusion of the Golden Knights was effectively an escalator (23 new NHL jobs). Seattle is a few years away so if we are back to our 5% habit: $78.75M cap in 18/19; $82.69M in 19/20 and $86.82M in 20/21.

    Since the last reset in 2012/13 the cap went from $60.0M, to $64.3M in 13/14 (7.16% increase), to $69.0M in 14/15 (7.31% increase), to $71.4M in 15/16 (only a 3.48% increase), to $73.0M in 16/17 (only a 2.24% increase), to $75.0M in 16/17 (only a 2.7% increase). For the first couple of years coming out of the 12/13 CBA, the 5% escalator was only part of the issue in setting the cap but for the last three years the fall in the Canadian dollar really hurt not withstanding the NHLPA’s use of the escalator.

    If we simply were to assume the more conservative average increase over the last three years of 2.8% (which with a rebound in the Canadian $ does seem really conservative) we are still going to have more room come 20/21 to absorb a Russell buyout on the cap: $77.1M in 18/19, $79.26M in 19/20 and $81.48 in 20/21.

    Not ideal, to be sure, regardless of where the cap goes but still doable.

  117. Jethro Tull says:

    Woodguy v2.0,

    Woodguy v2.0,

    Thanks for the reply. I thought your revised weighting for a better/more PPs was intriguing. What effect will the refs clamping down hard have? And if they ease up?

    I would also like to do the Sour Candy challenge as a blind layman. No access to stats, other than what i can remember. It would be an insight to see how good the brain is at subliminally noticing trends and patterns, where some experts think ‘gut feel’ comes from. Of course, memory and usage of memory (Hugin and Muninn!) differ from person to person. And if I guess correctly, is it luck, coincidence or proof positive?

    Anyways, kudos for trying to figure this out. It’s fun!

  118. godot10 says:

    I doubt the NHL will let the new CBA allow teams to escape cap recapture on buyouts or retirements. A team will probably be allowed to an escape clause only on the non-recapture parts of the buyout.

  119. russ99 says:

    Strome had two very distinct periods of play last year.

    The first part where he got the Dallas Eakins third line grinder approach under Capuano

    The second part under Doug Weight where he got his game back.

    These two parts were almost extreme as Schultz in Edmonton vs. Schultz in Pittsburgh.

    If you take the season as whole, you’re not getting the whole picture.

  120. OmJo says:

    If you’re Iginla, do you hold out and participate in the Olympics? Maybe try to lead Canada to a medal finish and hope that will garner more interest in your services next season? He’s in a unique opportunity to be the leader of the Canadian Olympic team, if he wants that.

  121. russ99 says:

    Doesn’t make any sense to buy out Russell when his contract is extremely tradable at year 3 once the bonus hits.

    Unless we see dramatic decline in play, and since he can skate unlike most of the D who crater at 30, I don’t see it.

    Seems to me another in a long line of grasping at straws to keep a specific player…

  122. season not played says:

    Lowetide: You’re trolling. I know it, you know it, we all know it. If you want to avoid being edited, take out all of the words that may cause people to get huffy. I can’t change the rules for you, season.

    Wasn’t aware I was not allowed to use the Straw Man argument line.

    It has been noted.

    Thank you for your patience.

  123. Jaxon says:

    Doug McLachlan: The cap crunch of Russell’s contract – if we are prepared to let him go and he won’t accept a trade – gets pushed down the road to 2020-21. Hmmm, why is that year significant – oh, right our regularly scheduled NHL lockout.

    I like this point. It is something I hadn’t really thought of. I was simply thinking they would depend on the cap going up by a $6M, and players coming off the books or getting traded (Fayne, Kassian, Letestu, Sekera, etc) to get through the 2020-21 crunch from approx. $5M from Pouliot & Russell’s buyouts.

    What possible ways around the cap crunch of Russell’s buyout do you see due to a possible strike/lockout? A shortened season means their full cap hit doesn’t apply? Possible allowance for GMs to clear compliance buyouts form the cap hit? Negotiated allowance to go over cap? Or simply no season at all, so cap hits don’t matter? Other?

    EDIT: Just saw your detailed response to jdhardy. Thanks.

  124. OriginalPouzar says:

    OmJo:
    If you’re Iginla, do you hold out and participate in the Olympics? Maybe try to lead Canada to a medal finish and hope that will garner more interest in your services next season? He’s in a unique opportunity to be the leader of the Canadian Olympic team, if he wants that.

    I believe there is a deadline for UFAs to (a) sign contracts and not be subject to waivers and (b) sign contracts and be permitted to play in the playoffs.

    I think.

    EDIT: Oh, wait, I thought you were talking about coming back to the NHL post-Olympics for a stretch.

    As a lawyer, you would think I would read more thoroughly.

  125. hunter1909 says:

    Lowetide: You’re trolling. I know it, you know it, we all know it. If you want to avoid being edited, take out all of the words that may cause people to get huffy. I can’t change the rules for you, season.

    Lowetide is the Sheriff. The rest of us are Saturday afternoon saloon drinkers.

  126. The Original JDî says:

    hunter1909: The rest of us are Saturday afternoon saloon drinkers.

    Or the sidekick with a game leg.

    Yer durn tootin!

  127. elgruntus says:

    hunter1909: Lowetide is the Sheriff. The rest of us are Saturday afternoon saloon drinkers.

    I’m drinking Sarsaparilla. Someone’s gotta drive.

  128. Yeti says:

    Georges: Yeti! It was you!

    My apologies for not remembering. I tried all kinds of searches. Glad I got the 69 correct.

    What are monastery folk like by the way? Good neighbors?

    They make tasty snacks when I get bored of yak meat.

  129. stush18 says:

    Nuclear leak:
    When people suggest Nuge+ Or Nurse+ For another teams commodity.. especially an org like Winnipeg.

    Look at the past trades Chia has done recently regarding established talent, when he’s traded Hall and Ebs in 1 for 1’s, it’s also informing other managers that’s he’s laying down a track record..

    If Nuge or Nurse are moved, their won’t be any + added from the Oilers end for a Trouba or Myers type.

    I think the difference is on both of those moves, we can say it was at least a partial salary dump.

    Will probably be the same with nuge.

    Not so sure with younger players. Moving than means you’re sacrificing the future for now, so might as well buckle down on it

  130. Thinker says:

    Strome is a plug. Not sure who suggested otherwise. He will play 3C to start, and he may lose that spot to be 3R. Letestu is a better player imo.

  131. OriginalPouzar says:

    Interesting tidbit from Gregor re: Puljijarvi:

    Thing I didn’t know: Jesse Puljujarvi moved away from home at 13 and he lived in his own apartment while he went to school and played hockey. “It was good. About 15 of us lived in the building. We had parents come every few days and make meals.” Puljujarvi grew up in a small Finnish town and he had to move to play more competitive hockey. Imagine being a parent and having your 13-year-old move away from home and live on his own — that’s just as tough as being the teenager on his own. The difference is most of us as teenagers thought we were mature enough to handle it. Puljujarvi really enjoyed it “I had many good friends. It was a lot of fun.”

  132. Woodguy v2.0 says:

    hunter1909: Lowetide is the Sheriff. The rest of us are Saturday afternoon saloon drinkers.

    some people come in and break chairs, knock over the spittoon, and punch the piano player without even buying a goddam drink.

  133. Woodguy v2.0 says:

    stush18: Lol I would hope we have it surrounded if our range goes from 88-103.

    Well that’s 3 guesses.

    I’d guess the range on Hunter’s challenge is wider.

  134. Woodguy v2.0 says:

    Woodguy v2.0: Well that’s 3 guesses.

    I’d guess the range on Hunter’s challenge is wider.

    and reading the thread I see this has been covered already…….

  135. The Original JDî says:

    TSN Hockey‏Verified account @TSNHockey 27s27 seconds ago

    Canucks Ice Chips: @FarhanLaljiTSN on the Sedins teaming up with young Boeser http://fw.to/iDZumJD #TSNHockey

    Bo knows scoring. That could be a pretty scary line.

  136. hunter1909 says:

    Woodguy v2.0: I’d guess the range on Hunter’s challenge is wider.

    88-110 appears to be the range.

  137. hunter1909 says:

    The Original JDî:
    TSN Hockey‏Verified account @TSNHockey 27s27 seconds ago


    Canucks Ice Chips: @FarhanLaljiTSN on the Sedins teaming up with young Boeser http://fw.to/iDZumJD#TSNHockey

    Bo knows scoring. That could be a pretty scary line.

    …then there’s the rest of that team lol

  138. hunter1909 says:

    Woodguy v2.0: some people come in and break chairs, knock over the spittoon, and punch the piano player without even buying a goddam drink.

    I’m always at the bar. Ordering beer.

    Later on I’ll drink whisky – alone and contemplative lol

  139. stush18 says:

    elgruntus: I’m drinking Sarsaparilla. Someone’s gotta drive.

    I can’t. Carriage has a bum hub and my horse has a wonky horseshoe and is pulling to the left.

    Or right. Woodguys phone isn’t sure.

  140. The Original JDî says:

    hunter1909: …then there’s the rest of that team lol

    Shhhh – we need them to steal a bunch of points from the Sharks.

  141. Jethro Tull says:

    Woodguy v2.0: some people come in and break chairs, knock over the spittoon, and punch the piano player without even buying a goddam drink.

    My favourite is, “Arguing here is like playing chess with a pigeon; it has no idea or even concept of what it’s doing, but it’s going to knock down all the pieces, shit all over the board and then strut around like it won.”

  142. leadfarmer says:

    Getting fleeced my an islanders GM is an impressive accomplishment. Chia really needs to shop elsewhere

  143. The Original JDî says:

    If you had 30 guesses at who is leading the league in preseason scoring points, I don’t think you’d get it.

    http://www.foxsports.com/nhl/stats?category=SCORING

  144. Jethro Tull says:

    The Original JDî,

    Nail Yakupov?

  145. OriginalPouzar says:

    The Original JDî:
    If you had 30 guesses at who is leading the league in preseason scoring, I don’t think you’d get it.

    http://www.foxsports.com/nhl/stats?category=SCORING

    Unsustainable shooting percentage.

  146. The Prototype JDî says:

    Jethro Tull,

    Got to give you half a point for being oh-so-close, but no. One of Yak’s former team mates though.

  147. BustedSoulO says:

    I freakin’ LUV this place.

    5 days in a row I’ve been here to check Pouzar’s response time.

    Guess I am hooked again!

    Lurked sporadically through the summer; LT IS a magnet for focused thought. But the rest of you… make this place: Home.

    WoodGuy? – Please don’t wander away again. If this is Abby Road, you, to me, are Chris Thomas to LT’s Alan Parsons…

    Without you around to angle the light, the dark side of the moon is… well, just Dark.

    !!!GOOILERS!!!

  148. The Prototype JDî says:

    OriginalPouzar: Unsustainable shooting percentage.

    I should have said leading in points. My bad.

  149. Jethro Tull says:

    The Prototype JDî:
    Jethro Tull,

    Got to give you half a point for being oh-so-close, but no. One of Yak’s former team mates though.

    Not our boy Schultzy!

  150. Jethro Tull says:

    The Prototype JDî,

    OK, i clicked the link now. Well, well.

  151. Woodguy v2.0 says:

    Jethro Tull:
    Woodguy v2.0,

    Woodguy v2.0,

    Thanks for the reply.I thought your revised weighting for a better/more PPs was intriguing.What effect will the refs clamping down hard have?And if they ease up?

    I would also like to do the Sour Candy challenge as a blind layman.No access to stats, other than what i can remember.It would be an insight to see how good the brain is at subliminally noticing trends and patterns, where some experts think ‘gut feel’ comes from.Of course, memory and usage of memory (Hugin and Muninn!) differ from person to person.And if I guess correctly, is it luck, coincidence or proof positive?

    Anyways, kudos for trying to figure this out.It’s fun!

    I love this stuff.

    If Micah runs it again, I’ll let you know.

    Also,

    Since I don’t use regression for my stuff, Micah considered my entry “eyeballs” and not “nerd”

    I’m not mathy enough for the math people.

    I’m too mathy for the non-math people.

    I am a rock.

    I am an island.

  152. linkfromhyrule says:

    OriginalPouzar: Unsustainable shooting percentage.

    Sven Baertschi somehow has a 300 SH%

    3 goals, one shot.

    Tarasenko has 43 shots in 2 games?

    Something smells….

  153. Woodguy v2.0 says:

    hunter1909: 88-110 appears to be the range.

    Thanks Hunter.

    Makes sense that fans of the team will err to the high side as a group.

  154. Woodguy v2.0 says:

    hunter1909: I’m always at the bar. Ordering beer.

    Later on I’ll drink whisky – alone and contemplative lol

    you never drink whiskey alone here sir.

  155. Woodguy v2.0 says:

    Jethro Tull: My favourite is, “Arguing here is like playing chess with a pigeon; it has no idea or even concept of what it’s doing, but it’s going to knock down all the pieces, shit all over the board and then strut around like it won.”

    I resemble that remark.

  156. The Prototype JDî says:

    linkfromhyrule: Something smells….

    Looks like the shot-counters are in preseason form as well, or maybe it has something to do with the 12 hour timezone shift while playing in China?

  157. Woodguy v2.0 says:

    The Original JDî:
    If you had 30 guesses at who is leading the league in preseason scoring points, I don’t think you’d get it.

    http://www.foxsports.com/nhl/stats?category=SCORING

    Props to LT for repeatedly saying Hunt was a player who desperately needed an expansion draft.

    I hope Omark comes back to the NHL too.

  158. OriginalPouzar says:

    BustedSoulO:
    I freakin’ LUV this place.

    5 days in a row I’ve been here to check Pouzar’s response time.

    I am here to increase traffic and support.

  159. Woodguy v2.0 says:

    BustedSoulO,

    Too kind.

    Thanks.

  160. Woodguy v2.0 says:

    Jethro Tull:
    https://web.cs.dal.ca/~johnston/poetry/island.html

    Edit:

    I am an island in the Lowetide archipelago.

  161. The Prototype JDî says:

    Woodguy v2.0: who desperately needed an expansion draft

    And a game against the Utica Comets 😉

  162. The Prototype JDî says:

    Woodguy v2.0: Omark

    I <3 O!

  163. Professor Q says:

    Woodguy v2.0: Edit:

    I am an island in the Lowetide archipelago.

    Does this make us Islanders?

  164. Woodguy v2.0 says:

    The Prototype JDî: And a game against the Utica Comets 😉

    We all need games vs the Utica Comets

  165. Woodguy v2.0 says:

    The Prototype JDî: I <3 O!


    my wife tells me the same thing

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