STREET LEGAL

Kailer Yamamoto scored his fifth goal of the preseason last night and it was easily the most important one. The Carolina Hurricanes represented the most difficult opposition of fall, with several veteran Oilers struggling throughout the contest. Yamamoto provided a spark for the McDavid line (once moved up the depth chart) and scored a terrific power-play marker on a skilled tip. He passed well, was dogged as a checker and for my money Yamamoto was the best Oiler on the ice. He turns 19 on Friday, we still don’t know what city he’ll be in on his birthday. That’s an accomplishment.

FORWARDS, LAST NIGHT

  • Numbers via Natural Stat Trick and NHL.com.
  • Leon Draisaitl and Milan Lucic had a poor game, Lucic had five giveaways. That can’t happen.
  • Anyone concerned about the PK?
  • I thought Ryan Strome had a reasonable game. Scored another goal from just outside the crease.
  • The pairings (Maroon-97, Lucic-29, Jokinen-93, Letestu-Kassian) appear set, but the rest of the forward group hasn’t found a place to land yet.
  • Impressed Todd  McLellan didn’t put McDavid with Leon for some 5×5. I bet he does it against Calgary with the Oilers down a goal to start the third period opening night, though.

DEFENSE

  • Dillon Simpson had some moments of exposure, but recovered quickly and gave a solid account of himself in last night’s very difficult game. I don’t think it gets him on the opening night roster, but he should be fairly high on the recall chain.
  • Matt Benning was a terror out there, hitting, blocking shots, sending out myriad headman passes. It was a loss and lots to tighten up but he’s a doer.
  • Kris Russell played his game. Some don’t like it, others think it’s grand. I like having a veteran defender out there to help, while also seeing the holes in his game. I don’t see a giant pile of blue pushing to replace him yet.
  • The top pair defended too much but beyond that I liked their game.
  • Cam Talbot got left out in the cold a lot, the one goal that he was at fault on came after his clearing attempt (it was the shorty). I have no concerns about the goaler.

YAMAMOTO

  • Todd McLellan: “I thought he was one of our best forwards again tonight. He just steadily played his game, he got pucks out when he needed to, he made plays, no glaring turnovers. I thought he managed his shift length well, when we had some other guys who milked it, went a little too long. Find a way to get to the blue paint and touch one in for a goal. It’s been impressive watching him.”

This does not sound like a man who is about to send Kailer Yamamoto to the minors. Honestly the one spark we saw last night came when KY moved up to the McDavid line. He’s a determined player with and without the puck, simply won’t give up space or trying to gain possession. Highly intelligent and always seems to be near the puck. Seriously, even in last night’s game the guy either has the puck, is creating a turnover, or is bearing down on the puck carrier. He’s like a live instructional video. Big brain.

SOMETHING TO TALK ABOUT

Not long after the draft, I started talking about Kailer Yamamoto as a ‘possible’ solution to the current RW situation. Here’s what I wrote July 13:

  • Lowetide blog: I’ve written about the possibility of Yamamoto making the team several times, often get reactions like “why don’t you just be patient?” or “do you seriously believe they would do that?” from readers. First, my preference isn’t really the point. We’re talking about this player and the Oilers organization. The team has been brazen over the last decade in sending kids to the NHL right out of the box. I know this young man is small, but he has terrific speed, something Sam Gagner wasn’t gifted with when the organization gave him a push fall 2007. Taking into account skill set, team need, franchise proclivity, I think there’s a chance this happens. Source

One of the things I wish we could avoid is talking about ideas as if they were a ‘preference’ or ‘something you’d like to  see’ instead of the ideas themselves being the discussion point. I think there are organizations that would have ended this experiment before now, would not have even entertained the idea. The Oilers own past suggested they would be more open to the idea and we are here. Kailer Yamamoto earned this, no one can take it away from him. I can say he got a little lucky in getting drafted by an organization that has no qualms about elevating teenagers to the show right out of the box. As of now, Kailer Yamamoto is the most substantial offensive RW in camp. That’s a fact. He flourishes on damned near any line they put him on, he was the best forward on a night the opposition dressed an NHL unit and played a strong game. What’s left for Yamamoto? Moving out of the hotel and into an apartment? We wait.

Such a beautiful dream. The window of return for Sekera has been all over the map in terms of estimates, but his return by Game 20 versus Game 40 is monu-freaking-mental. That’s a fact.

LOWDOWN WITH LOWETIDE

At 10 this morning, TSN1260. A strong guest list, scheduled to appear:

  • Jonathan Willis, The Athletic. Kailer Yamamoto’s immediate future.
  • Bagged Milk, Oilers Nation/The Nation Network. A major piece of news yesterday, as the Nation Network has been joined by Emmanuel Perry and Corsica. An enormous addition, we’ll talk about what Manny brings to the Network and how much nerds like me are thrilled to have the site coming back (and what it might look like).
  • Scott Cullen, TSN. Crazy football weekend, NHL cuts, does pre-season mean one damned thing?
  • Alex Thomas, The Oilers Rig. Do we have any good answers about the third pairing now that training camp is almost over?

10-1260 text, @Lowetide on twitter. It’ll be a fun show, probably some waiver wire talk around 10 as well.

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120 Responses to "STREET LEGAL"

  1. OriginalPouzar says:

    Kailer, starts on the fourth line and one of the only positive players in the game.

    Geez!

  2. hunter1909 says:

    Hunter1909’s Oilers Death March is back for the 2017-18 season!

    Here’s how you play: Pick the exact number of points you think the Oilers will have at the end of the season.

    Then, after the usual training camp hypejobs stop and the real NHL starts, Oilers usually lose 2-3 defencemen and spent the rest of the season chasing/debating the lottery. What better way to enjoy those pointless, meaningless games than The Hunter1909 Official Oilers Death March(TM)?

    Last year had well over 300 players. Prizes being sorted as this message gets posted for last season’s winners who will be notified at a later date.

    Contest Entry: Open until puck drop on opening night. Think of a giant guillotine blade – once the first puck drops it’s all over.

  3. OriginalPouzar says:

    I’ve been a bit worried about the PK for a while now but I’m not sure that last night is the best representation of our penalty kill abilities – with Kassian and Pakarinan out of the lineup.

    My main concern is that our coach is concerned and he, along with the GM, make a decision that Chris Kelly is required.

    I’d rather keep a Brad Malone than use the contract spot – especially given the ever increasing chance that Yamamoto’s contract won’t slide, at least for a portion of the season.

  4. papa96 says:

    Thank you LT, great post.

    Hunter1909, 102 points please. Thank you, Papa96

  5. Dustylegnd says:

    LT,

    This does not sound like a man who is about to send Kailer Yamamoto to the minors. Honestly the one spark we saw last night came when KY moved up to the McDavid line. He’s a determined player with and without the puck, simply won’t give up space or trying to gain possession. Highly intelligent and always seems to be near the puck. Seriously, even in last night’s game the guy either has the puck, is creating a turnover, or is bearing down on the puck carrier. He’s like a live instructional video. Big brain.

    Could not agree more, I maintain if he forechecks, back checks, scores and hustles better than all other available options why would the Oil send him back before a 9 game experiment against 100% NHL comp? It costs nothing

    On the down side, good god does Puljujarvi look lost against NHL comp…. he is completely lost on the defensive side of the puck and is a random walk that “GULP” reminds me of Yak sometimes.

    Something needs to change in this mans game, no urgency, little fight or battle in the game, he is a plus skater, with a huge reach and has no idea how to apply any of it.

    The conventional explanation is that Puljujarvi comes from the North and struggles with English and the smaller ice surface. Why did Puljujarvi not commit to June-Sep in Toronto to live and train with McDavid, speaking english and immersing himself in all things North American from language to diet, to training to ice surface. What is his commitment and desire to the North American game if he indeed did live and train in Finland in the off season?

  6. Spartacus says:

    Hunter 1909;

    I’ll go with 105 points.

    Thanks.

  7. russ99 says:

    One thing I should mention about last night – and yes everyone had a bad night so it’s hard to single out one player – but:

    Klefbom gave up on a lot of plays in our zone. Just because you’re out of position is no reason to just stand there and let the opposition have their way.

    He can’t backslide defensively with Sekera out or we’re in trouble.

  8. ChiliChunk says:

    hunter1909: Hunter1909’s Oilers Death March is back for the 2017-18 season!
    Here’s how you play: Pick the exact number of points you think the Oilers will have at the end of the season.

    Please put me down for 93 points. Thanks.

  9. jake70 says:

    Dustylegnd:
    LT,

    On the down side, good god does Puljujarvi look lost against NHL comp…. he is completely lost on the defensive side of the puck and is a random walk that “GULP” reminds me of Yak sometimes.

    Something needs to change in this mans game, no urgency, little fight or battle in the game, he is a plus skater, with a huge reach and has no idea how to apply any of it.

    The conventional explanation is that Puljujarvi comes from the North and struggles with English and the smaller ice surface. Why did Puljujarvi not commit to June-Sep in Toronto to live and train with McDavid, speaking english and immersing himself in all things North American from language to diet, to training to ice surface.What is his commitment and desire to the North American game if he indeed did live and train in Finland in the off season?

    And meanwhile,, Laine, taken in the 2 spot where the Oiler sat pre-lottery, had a 5 pointer last night. I know, have to get over it…imagine Vancouver dropping like lead balloons the last 2 drafts..all relative.

  10. OriginalPouzar says:

    I’ve done a bit of a flip on this, however, at this point, with 2 games to go, I see no reason why JP isn’t re-assigned to Bakersfiled and Kailer Yamamoto is not in the opening night roster.

    The only risk prior to playing 10 games is the effect on Puljijarvi – his confidence, his desire, etc.

  11. Silver Streak says:

    God I hate Carolina….last nights game just added to the memory bank….

    .Yamamotto !

    I wonder if a Nuge and Bear deal for a red RHD who played last night would be in Chia`s thoughts.

  12. Durag says:

    So is our opening night 1RW an overachieving, undersized 18 year old, an underachieving, oversized 19 year old…or do we see what Jarome is up to?

  13. McSorley33 says:

    Todd McLellan: “I thought he was one of our best forwards again tonight. He just steadily played his game, he got pucks out when he needed to, he made plays, no glaring turnovers. I thought he managed his shift length well, when we had some other guys who milked it, went a little too long. Find a way to get to the blue paint and touch one in for a goal. It’s been impressive watching him.”

    ***********************************************************************************************

    Missed the game but Todd sure seems to be talking to some other forwards here…..

    Any ideas who he was referring to ?

  14. Dustylegnd says:

    OriginalPouzar,

    If a demotion does anything other than piss him off and motivate him to be a better player, we have a real problem on our hands…..Meritocracy….there is no other way to run successful organizations, his feelings are not material

  15. Dustylegnd says:

    Durag,
    A 40 year old with a million miles on his frame who never has been a plus skater is not what this team needs.

  16. Dustylegnd says:

    jake70,

    one word….McDavid…we can never ever ever complain about lottery Gods….what we can complain about is piss poor drafting during the decade of darkness and the fact that Tkachuck taken after Puljujarvi has worked out so brilliantly as an NHLer

  17. McSorley33 says:

    Yes, of course, it is only pre-season….but preseason Lucic along the wall looks eerily similar to regular season Lucic along the wall.

  18. oscarmike says:

    So far this season is looking like the Year of the Pentalties. I guess Betman figured out to get more scoring.
    I still think since Leon is making the big bucks he should be McDavid RW. Also he has the best chemistry with McDavid. Oilers can build around their first line. It worked really good last year.
    Eberle is out, Yamamoto looks like he could be Nuge’s RW.
    Third line Jussi-Strome-Slepy

  19. Woogie63 says:

    I went to the game last night, we had great seats. As I looked at Yama he did not seem a whole bunch smaller than Caggulia, Letestu or even Benning, those guys are a little undersized but make up for it others ways.

    I liked Fayne’s 2nd and 3rd period a lot … I keep things could a stay a home RHD vet. help Nurse become a better pro?

    JP has the shortest shifts of all the forwards, he was spoke to by the coaches that he needed to play another 10 seconds to balance the line match up they were looking to achieve. He had two beautiful 3 line rushes where he looked like the draft pick we thought. However, he seemed to lose ever puck battle and I wonder if he has the upper body strength right now to play TMacs break-out.

  20. flea says:

    They have to keep on playing Yamamoto, I’d give him both of the remaining games. Same with JP (Although I’m sure the lineup will be much thinner on Wednesday in Sask)

    Good to see the team lose, the coaching staff needs to see where they are making errors and what to work on. I hope for a loss Wednesday then a win Saturday to head into the season.

    I don’t mind putting Drai back on RW with Mcdavid

    Maroon – McD – Drai
    Jokinen – RNH – Pulju/Yamamoto
    Lucic – Strome – Cagguila
    Khaira – Letestu – Kassian

    lines 2/3 are kind of interchangable

    Pakarainen extra forward.

    I wouldn’t mind playing off Puljujarvi and Yamamoto out of the press box to keep the competition buzzing.

  21. serum114 says:

    hunter1909,

    I’ve always watched and never participated in your death march, but I’ll wade into the pool this year:

    Put me down for 98 points please good sir.

  22. stush18 says:

    Anyone who says faceoffs have no impact on the game need to watch last nights game.

    The oilers were chasing off every draw, and spent most of a shift chasing. By the time they gained possession, they dumped the puck to change, and carolinas mobile defense was moving the puck up.

    I’m also a big fan of Necas from Carolina. He’s huge and a great skater.

    Carolina is going to make the playoffs this year, as long as their scoring can increase a bit, and there goaltending finally holds.

  23. stush18 says:

    ALso, if I’m Carolina, I’m calling Sakic everyday about duchene.

    They have more than enough young prospects right now. Especially young defenders.

  24. marconiuse says:

    hunter1909,

    Put me down for 105 points please Hunter1909

  25. Ca$h-McMoney! says:

    Hunter,

    Put me down for 85 points.

  26. Jethro Tull says:

    Ca$h-McMoney!:
    Hunter,

    Put me down for 85 points.

    So no playoffs?

    Good, good. Let the power of the dark side flow through you!

  27. Georges says:

    stush18:
    Anyone who says faceoffs have no impact on the game need to watch last nights game.

    The oilers were chasing off every draw, and spent most of a shift chasing. By the time they gained possession, they dumped the puck to change, and carolinas mobile defense was moving the puck up.

    The Oilers won more faceoffs.

    Stauffer was going on about it too. Particularly on the PK. The team on the PP has an edge in faceoffs. More skaters on the ice has something to do with it. Don’t know if Stauffer knows this or he thinks it’s a 50-50.

    Also, why do the Oilers color commentators hate the Oilers?

    On the Khaira “penalty”, Stauffer offered “to me, there’s no doubt about it.” Rob Brown thought the refs could’ve given Khaira slashing, hooking, or tripping.

    Does any team have a play-by-play crew that adds to the play?

  28. admiralmark says:

    hunter1909,

    Put me down for Conner McDavid 97pts

  29. hunter1909 says:

    serum114:
    hunter1909,

    I’ve always watched and never participated in your death march, but I’ll wade into the pool this year:

    Put me down for 98 points please good sir.

    best wishes from the Death March team.

    Thank you to Yourself and all of the other satisfied Death March contestants!

    With Playoffs likely after a decade of lotteries, there’s still everything to play for!

  30. ewarsaba says:

    94 points

  31. BowValleyFan says:

    Does no one remember pre-season scoring leader Anton Lander?

    And if we look at the current list of names tied for first in points with Yamamoto right now there’s some impressive company: Austin Matthews, Patrick Laine… and who’s this? Oilers alumnus Brad Hunt?

    I’ve loved his play so far. But let’s be measured in our enthusiasm. The NHL jump is large from the WHL. He’s skipping over a number of strong pro leagues to the very best in the world.

    What happens if he makes 10 games then hits a rough patch? He’s not a veteran, so he wont be cut any slack by the fanbase. Judging by the parade of promising young players run out of town: Schultz, Yakupov, Eberle to name a few…

    I hope he gets his 9 or less and they do the right thing for his development and send him down.

  32. NSmitty says:

    hunter1909,

    I’m surely crazy for thinking this is a possibility, but put me down for 115 points.

  33. flea says:

    BowValleyFan,

    I agree. He has done well this preseason, and I think he deserves 9 games but that’s it. I’d be happy if the Oilers kept him around until nearly the WJC then sent him down to play that and the stretch for Spokane.

    Sometimes though – the player agents get into management and make them do crazy things – see Draisaitl, Leon, and Puljujarvi, Jesse.

  34. stush18 says:

    Georges: The Oilers won more faceoffs.

    Stauffer was going on about it too. Particularly on the PK. The team on the PP has an edge in faceoffs. More skaters on the ice has something to do with it. Don’t know if Stauffer knows this or he thinks it’s a 50-50.

    Also, why do the Oilers color commentators hate the Oilers?

    On the Khaira “penalty”, Stauffer offered “to me, there’s no doubt about it.” Rob Brown thought the refs could’ve given Khaira slashing, hooking, or tripping.

    Does any team have a play-by-play crew that adds to the play?

    Do you have the totals for the first two periods?

    I find it hard to believe they were even, but I only watched the first two periods, I never saw any of the third. Unless they were marking the draws in the oilers favour

  35. Numenius says:

    hunter1909,

    Hunter, put me down for 97 points.

    Thanks for doing this again!

  36. Side says:

    BowValleyFan:
    Does no one remember pre-season scoring leader Anton Lander?

    And if we look at the current list of names tied for first in points with Yamamoto right now there’s some impressive company: Austin Matthews, Patrick Laine… and who’s this? Oilers alumnus Brad Hunt?

    I’ve loved his play so far. But let’s be measured in our enthusiasm. The NHL jump is large from the WHL. He’s skipping over a number of strong pro leagues to the very best in the world.

    What happens if he makes 10 games then hits a rough patch? He’s not a veteran, so he wont be cut any slack by the fanbase. Judging by the parade of promising young players run out of town: Schultz, Yakupov, Eberle to name a few…

    I hope he gets his 9 or less and they do the right thing for his development and send him down.

    I think you may be missing the point a bit here.

    It’s not just the points that people are looking at for KY, they’re looking at how he got those points and what he’s doing on the ice when he doesn’t have the puck. Coupled with the fact that he’s an undersized, soon to be 19 year old playing against vets as well as other rookies and performing very well with some bumps and adjustment (as expected). So what happens if in the 9 games, Yamamoto tears it up as well? Are you going to suggest he get sent down just because?

  37. hunter1909 says:

    Numenius:
    hunter1909,

    Hunter, put me down for 97 points.

    Thanks for doing this again!

    Hunter1909’s Death March is entering it’s 4th year!

    Everyone is welcome to sign up…here!

    Here’s how you play: Pick the exact number of points you think the Oilers will have at the end of the 2017-18 season.

    Last year had well over 200 players. Prizes being sorted as this message gets posted for last season’s winners who will be notified at a later date.

    Contest Entry: Open until puck drop on opening night. Think of a giant guillotine blade – once the first puck drops it’s all over.

  38. godot10 says:

    jake70: And meanwhile,, Laine, taken in the 2 spot where the Oiler sat pre-lottery, had a 5 pointer last night. I know, have to get over it…imagine Vancouver dropping like lead balloons the last 2 drafts..all relative.

    Probability tells us that that sitting in the two slot, it is basically a coin flip between picking 3rd and 4th. The Oilers got the draft pick they earned…3rd or 4th. They were never owed #2. There was no bad luck in where they ended up in the draft.

    Complaining about lottery positioning after the balls fell for McDavid is just silly.

  39. tubes says:

    Hunter put me down for 107 points please

  40. godot10 says:

    Dustylegnd:
    jake70,

    one word….McDavid…we can never ever ever complain about lottery Gods….what we can complain about is piss poor drafting during the decade of darkness and the fact that Tkachuck taken after Puljujarvi has worked out so brilliantly as an NHLer

    The Calgary coaching staff put Tkachuk in a position to succeed

    The Oilers coaching staff is all over the place with Puljujarvi. There seems to have been precious little coaching of Jesse. They say they have a plan, but it looks like complete incompetent coaching to me. They have never given him a stable spot or role either in Edmonton or Bakerfield.

    AFter they sent him to Bakersfield last year, they could have stapled him to Lander, and let Lander coach him, but they jumbled him all over the place just like they did in Edmonton early last year, and in training camp this year.

    A lot of “sink or swim” with prospects and this coaching staff. Actual coaching players appear not be their thing.

  41. Side says:

    godot10: The Calgary coaching staff put Tkachuk in a position to succeed

    The Oilers coaching staff is all over the place with Puljujarvi.There seems to have been precious little coaching of Jesse.They say they have a plan, but it looks like complete incompetent coaching to me.They have never given him a stable spot or role either in Edmonton or Bakerfield.

    AFter they sent him to Bakersfield last year, they could have stapled him to Lander, and let Lander coach him, but they jumbled him all over the place just like they did in Edmonton early last year, and in training camp this year.

    A lot of “sink or swim” with prospects and this coaching staff.Actual coaching players appear not be their thing.

    Andddd there it is.

    I have no clue how someone can see what Todd has done with the team over the years and say he is “incompetent”.

    If that’s not trolling, I don’t know what is.

  42. OriginalPouzar says:

    Lines at practice:

    Maroon – McDavid – Yamamoto
    Lucic – Draisaitl – Puljijarvi
    Jokinen – Nuge – Strome/Caggulia
    Khaira – Letestu – Kassian

  43. Side says:

    Coach gives KY opportunities to succeed in the pre-season and does – Good job, Yamamoto!

    Coach gives JP opportunities to succeed in the pre-season and is doing meh so far – Wow, way to go, coaching staff.

    Makes sense.

  44. godot10 says:

    Side: Andddd there it is.

    I have no clue how someone can see what Todd has done with the team over the years and say he is “incompetent”.

    If that’s not trolling, I don’t know what is.

    My claim is that McLellan is a mediocre coach, not an incompetent one. In post above, the incompetent reference was limited to “incompetent coaching of Puljujarvi”.

    And if anyone can clearly explain how anything they have done with Puljujarvi makes any sense whatever, please do.

  45. Georges says:

    LT:

    1. “… Lucic had 5 giveaways. That can’t happen.”

    You’re right. There were 44274 box score records for players last year. 43 of them had 5 giveaways or more. Less than 1 in a 1000.

    It’s a subjective stat. Someone was likely extra subjective with Lucic last night… or Lucic was serving GVA like a waiter.

    If we’re going to start early with the gimlet eye on 27, maybe we should stick with 5v5 scoring like we did last year. He had 0 last night. Preseason but… Bad Lucic!

    2. Benning is a young, promising defenseman asked to do more with Sekera out.

    I saw he had problems on occasion last night reading the play and/or making a play. Took himself out of position and put his teammates in a bad spot.

    Still early. I really can’t believe Klefbom will get close to 25 minutes a night. That’s just reckless. So that means the team will lean on Benning more than they did last season.

    Anxious to see how he does.

    3. Finally, any thoughts on including 5v5 GF-GA in your player recaps?

  46. Jethro Tull says:

    godot10: The Calgary coaching staff put Tkachuk in a position to succeed

    Eh? The Flames played him all season (76g) in his draft year. Obviously they felt he was NHL ready.

    godot10: They say they have a plan, but it looks like complete incompetent coaching to me.

    Well, it would, wouldn’t it?

    godot10: AFter they sent him to Bakersfield last year, they could have stapled him to Lander, and let Lander coach him

    Who says Lander is a good coach?

    godot10: A lot of “sink or swim” with prospects and this coaching staff. Actual coaching players appear not be their thing.

    Which is exactley what Calgary did with Tkachuk…..no, wait, it’s called “put in a position to succeed.”

    See, to me, being put in a position to succeed is where you’ve been given the resources, time and direction in order to fulfill a specific task. However, there is one more variable in this equation, and it is the individual themselves and how they respond.

    Some might say being put with McDavid is the ultimate position to succeed. Some might say. You know what some might say……

  47. Kinger_Oil.redux says:

    stush18: Do you have the totals for the first two periods?

    I find it hard to believe they were even, but I only watched the first two periods, I never saw any of the third. Unless they were marking the draws in the oilers favour

    – Great post LT!

    – It is easy to get sucked into the importance of a single faceoff. Of course each one is important. But as a whole there is no correlation between FO and winning games:

    – Last year the three worst FO teams were: Chicago, Pittsburg, and Edmonton

    – Colorado was the 2nd best FO team…

    – 2 years ago, the two best FO teams: Arizona and Carolina: they did not make the playoffs

  48. OriginalPouzar says:

    flea:
    BowValleyFan,

    I agree. He has done well this preseason, and I think he deserves 9 games but that’s it. I’d be happy if the Oilers kept him around until nearly the WJC then sent him down to play that and the stretch for Spokane.

    Sometimes though – the player agents get into management and make them do crazy things – see Draisaitl, Leon, and Puljujarvi, Jesse.

    They could keep him around until Christmas but, unless they want to burn that 1st year of his ELC, he’ll be spending most if his time in the press box which is not going to happen.

    One thing at a time – lets see if he makes the opening night roster and, if he does, see how it goes for 3, 4, 5 games before talk of staying.

  49. godot10 says:

    Side:
    Coach gives KY opportunities to succeed in the pre-season and does– Good job, Yamamoto!

    Coach gives JP opportunities to succeed in the pre-season and is doing meh so far – Wow, way to go, coaching staff.

    Makes sense.

    I see “sink or swim” coaching. Some players have to be brought along and taught. The Patriots figure out what there players can do and try to make them better, and design systems and strategies where they can succeed.

    Until they traded for Cooks, they had one first round draft pick playing on their offense. Now they have two.

  50. delooper says:

    I’ll go for 110 pts.

  51. VOR says:

    I thought those of you playing Hunter’s Death March might find the following analysis interesting.

    I went back to 2005-2006 and started looking at what happened to the top ten teams (as measured by total points) in the following year. So for 2005-2006’s top ten teams what I wanted to know was how they did in total points in 2006-2007. I did this for each year – for the years effected by the lock out I adjusted to a full year worth of data for the lockout year (2012-2013).

    Of top ten point total teams 32 of 110 got better the next year. 78 of 110 got worse.

    For those that got better the average improvement was 6 points more.

    For those that got worse the average drop was 10 points.

    39% dropped out of the top ten the following year.

    The biggest gain from year to the next was 19 points by the Washington Capitals from 2014-2015 to 2015-2016.
    The biggest loss from one year to the next was 45 points by the Philadelphia Flyers from 2005-2006 to 2006-2007.

    So if you use averages a reasonable expectation for the Edmonton Oilers would be 109 to 93
    But if you used the biggest gains or losses as outer markers the range is 122 to 58.

  52. hags9k says:

    hunter1909,

    Please put me down for 108 pts. Thanks Hunter!

  53. Mantis says:

    Hunter, I was a little pessimistic last season and had us just squeaking in to the playoffs. I’ll jump the other way this year and go with 109 points.

    May I enquire as to what the prizes have been in the past? I thought it was simply bragging rights…

    Thank you for doing this for us, adds a little more excitement to the long haul!

  54. GMB3 says:

    Drai looked awful last night.

    I actually thought JP looked better in the third. When he carries the puck he looks like he could be something.

    I’m unsure where this verbal about JP already taking care of the defensive side of the puck comes from. He looks lost out there in his own end, especially on the wall. Him being 6’4 is irrelevant to the way he plays.

  55. godot10 says:

    Kinger_Oil.redux: – Great post LT!

    – It is easy to get sucked into the importance of a single faceoff.Of course each one is important.But as a whole there is no correlation between FO and winning games:

    – Last year the three worst FO teams were: Chicago, Pittsburg, and Edmonton

    – Colorado was the 2nd best FO team…

    – 2 years ago, the two best FO teams: Arizona and Carolina: they did not make the playoffs

    Not all faceoffs are equal. It doesn’t matter if you lose the ones that don’t matter. In aggregate, faceoffs don’t matter. It has not been proven or disproven that some subsets fo faceoffs may matter.

    Hockey is played situationally, not in aggregate. Because something does not matter in aggregate, does not mean it doesn’t matter situationally.

  56. Side says:

    godot10: My claim is that McLellan is a mediocre coach, not an incompetent one.In post above, the incompetent reference was limited to “incompetent coaching of Puljujarvi”.

    And if anyone can clearly explain how anything they have done with Puljujarvi makes any sense whatever, please do.

    “The Oilers coaching staff is all over the place with Puljujarvi. There seems to have been precious little coaching of Jesse. They say they have a plan, but it looks like complete incompetent coaching to me.”

    in·com·pe·tent
    inˈkämpədənt/Submit
    adjective
    1.
    not having or showing the necessary skills to do something successfully.

    I guess I’m just confused about your comment. In your original comment you say it is “complete incompetent coaching” and in your next you say that Todd is incompetent in coaching JP.

    So Todd has the skills to coach his team this far, but he somehow turns into an incompetent when it comes to coaching JP?

    You typically come into most threads by saying Todd is “incompetent” or “mediocre” but I honestly can’t remember a time you said why or how Todd is incompetent or mediocre.

    What if this time, you told us why you think Todd is “incompetent” when it comes to coaching JP and what you think would be better for the player?

  57. Dustylegnd says:

    BowValleyFan:
    Does no one remember pre-season scoring leader Anton Lander?

    And if we look at the current list of names tied for first in points with Yamamoto right now there’s some impressive company: Austin Matthews, Patrick Laine… and who’s this? Oilers alumnus Brad Hunt?

    I’ve loved his play so far. But let’s be measured in our enthusiasm. The NHL jump is large from the WHL. He’s skipping over a number of strong pro leagues to the very best in the world.

    What happens if he makes 10 games then hits a rough patch? He’s not a veteran, so he wont be cut any slack by the fanbase. Judging by the parade of promising young players run out of town: Schultz, Yakupov, Eberle to name a few…

    I hope he gets his 9 or less and they do the right thing for his development and send him down.

    Well lets review, they sent Eberle back to Jr for two additional years to further develop his skill set and gave him a job at 20 years old.

    Schultz signed as a 22 year old and spent 30 plus games in the AHL prior to his debut in the NHL, perhaps he was a casualty of a very different coaching and managerial regime

    Yakupov, was perhaps a casualty of a very different coaching and managerial Regime

    Two of the 3 players mentioned took a relatively long road to the NHL both playing their 1st NHL season in their 20’s….over ripening prospects is not necessarily the key to NHL success, what has happened to the magic touch of Kenny Holland, same MO, very different results

    Here is the Point, this Oilers squad is very skilled and very seasoned with a battle proven Managerial and Coaching staff that has Stanley cup and playoff success dating back to the mid 2000’s, they know what they are doing

  58. Roughneck says:

    My concerns on the PK are largely isolated around Letestu and his inability to chip the puck down the ice, especially on the back hand.
    Its weird.
    We know the guy can shoot a puck.
    Its like the swiss army knife has a defective tool

  59. OriginalPouzar says:

    GMB3:
    Drai looked awful last night.

    I actually thought JP looked better in the third. When he carries the puck he looks like he could be something.

    I’m unsure where this verbal about JP already taking care of the defensive side of the puck comes from. He looks lost out there in his own end, especially on the wall. Him being 6’4 is irrelevant to the way he plays.

    He was absolutely awful on the wall and in his own zone near the blueline – multiple failed attempts to get the puck out, very weak in battles, etc.

  60. godot10 says:

    GMB3:
    Drai looked awful last night.

    Lucic cratered Nugent-Hopkins last year. So far, he looks like he will do the same to Draisaitl this year.

    Year 2 for Lucic is looking a bad as Year 1 was.

    6 more years.

  61. Side says:

    godot10: I see “sink or swim” coaching.Some players have to be brought along and taught.The Patriots figure out what there players can do and try to make them better, and design systems and strategies where they can succeed.

    Until they traded for Cooks, they had one first round draft pick playing on their offense. Now they have two.

    Sink or Swim coaching?

    JP and KY have played on lines 1-4 in the pre-season haven’t they? How is that sink or swim? JP in particular has played in the NHL, the minors and is getting another look at the NHL. I don’t think JP even started on the top line in the AHL (feel free to correct me if I’m wrong). Wouldn’t sink or swim be like how the old Oilers handled Schultz, Hall or RNH? By feeding them top minutes against top competition regardless of whether they are ready or not.

  62. GMB3 says:

    Did anyone else think Carolina’a puck movement was impressive last night? Not just their D moving the puck forward, but they had some very creative plays in the offensive end.

  63. hags9k says:

    The way he is going right now, you have to give Yamo the 9 games and go from there.

    56 in the lineup gives us our best chance to win right now and these early games and pts could be the difference.

    No reason to pass a hot streak over to Spokane when he could spend October scoring GWGs in Edm.

  64. Dustylegnd says:

    godot10,

    You are Magic, 1 bad pre season game….expected outcome for Lucic an open and shut case, your not too emotional.

  65. Thinker says:

    I think you play Krazr the rest of the preseason, and then make a decision. No more nights off!!!

  66. Thinker says:

    We go through this every year. Veterans play preseason like it’s an all star game. They don’t give a “care.” Talk to me when they look shitty mid october.

  67. Professor Q says:

    Side: Sink or Swim coaching?

    JP and KY have played on lines 1-4 in the pre-season haven’t they? How is that sink or swim? JP in particular has played in the NHL, the minors and is getting another look at the NHL. I don’t think JP even started on the top line in the AHL (feel free to correct me if I’m wrong).Wouldn’t sink or swim be like how the old Oilers handled Schultz, Hall or RNH? By feeding them top minutes against top competition regardless of whether they are ready or not.

    You’re right. It was actually a huge point of contention (discussion here and elsewhere on Flemming’s coaching strategy) as both McLellan and Chiarelli praised Puljujärvi’s defensive skills and thought he could play well in the AHL.

    Flemming disagreed and thought that that was his worst aspect, and started him on the third line with grubbers for an extended period. It wasn’t until nearer the playoffs that he started getting looks on the first line with Lander et al.

  68. Side says:

    Professor Q: You’re right. It was actually a huge point of contention (discussion here and elsewhere on Flemming’s coaching strategy) as both McLellan and Chiarelli praised Puljujärvi’s defensive skills and thought he could play well in the AHL.

    Flemming disagreed and thought that that was his worst aspect, and started him on the third line with grubbers for an extended period. It wasn’t until nearer the playoffs that he started getting looks on the first line with Lander et al.

    Yeah I’m not a huge fan of Flemming. I would love to see what Nelson could do with JP.

  69. godot10 says:

    Thinker:
    We go through this every year. Veterans play preseason like it’s an all star game. They don’t give a “care.” Talk to me when they look shitty mid october.

    Last night was not an average pre-season game. It was mostly NHL’ers vs. NHL’ers. It was billed as a regular season prep game. There is only one more prep game against Vancouver on the weekend.
    since the Saskatoon game is back to an average pre-season game, where the tweeners get their final shot.

    It was time to be ramping up.

  70. Georges says:

    godot10: Last was not an average pre-season game.It was mostly NHL’ers vs. NHL’ers.It was billed as a regular season prep game.There is only one more prep game against Vancouver on the weekend.
    since the Saskatoon game is back to an average pre-season game, where the tweeners get their final shot.

    It was time to be ramping up.

    Yeah, we came out flat and the Canes were playing for their playoff lives.

  71. Kinger_Oil.redux says:

    VOR:

    So if you use averages a reasonable expectation for the Edmonton Oilers would be 109 to 93
    But if you used the biggest gains or losses as outer markers the range is 122 to 58.

    – thanks for this. It fits with my view of the team: the reasonable range of outcomes: barely makes playoffs (due to injuries, etc), to possible President’s Trophy (mostly good things happen)

    – I too share your view that they can win the Cup this year. Of course I don’t “know” that, but the scatter plot of possible outcomes have moved quite far right

    – A healthy full year of CmD, on a better team, has the potential to greatly effect the result of this team, more so than anyone since Crosby (using your team data from 2005 onwards)

    – Interesting in Crosby’s 2nd full healthy year, the team went super-nova, going from 58 points to 105. He went from 102 points to 120 points

    – If CmD in his 2nd full healthy year, has a 20% improvement and goes from 100 to 120 points, as Crosby did: it would not be surprising to see this team be the best team in the NHL

  72. CrazyCoach says:

    The first three words of Spector’s tweet are as about the truest statement you’ll ever hear, followed by the classic, “Saw him good” rehabilitation statement about no limping. 140 characters is not a lot, but there’s a lot more to an ACL tear than not limping.

  73. stush18 says:

    Kinger_Oil.redux: – Great post LT!

    – It is easy to get sucked into the importance of a single faceoff.Of course each one is important.But as a whole there is no correlation between FO and winning games:

    – Last year the three worst FO teams were: Chicago, Pittsburg, and Edmonton

    – Colorado was the 2nd best FO team…

    – 2 years ago, the two best FO teams: Arizona and Carolina: they did not make the playoffs

    We went over this earlier this month I believe, but Pitt actually is dynamite on the PP on faceoffs. And if you look at the top PP teams, most all have much better PP faceoffs %.

    It honestly looks like some teams are “gaming” faceoffs. Maybe it’s the extra man helping?

    Either way, I can’t discount faceoffs.

    To me it’s like people discounting corsi because it’s correlation to winning has been eroding over the last few years.

    Why bother tracking it? It’s at an all time low for correlation to winning. Might as well not put any stock into it, same as faceoffs.

    All of these things matter.

  74. VOR says:

    What I’d like to see for Jesse Puljujärvi is for him to play an entire season on the third line of the Oilers with RNH and Jussi Jokinen. The kid has immense physical talents but his head keeps getting in the way (even in last nights fiasco you could see flashes of brilliance.) Puljujärvi needs mentoring and stability and to play with NHL level pros who have learned the value of hard work and discipline and the importance of helping with the heavy lifting.

  75. stush18 says:

    CrazyCoach:
    The first three words of Spector’s tweet are as about the truest statement you’ll ever hear, followed by the classic, “Saw him good” rehabilitation statement about no limping.140 characters is not a lot, but there’s a lot more to an ACL tear than not limping.

    Haha ya I saw that too.

    I broke my ankle and could walk without a boot or a limp.

    But put a slight twist in it and I collapsed.

  76. Gerta Rauss says:

    Mantis: May I enquire as to what the prizes have been in the past? I thought it was simply bragging rights…

    The top 3 finishers win a Kia Sorento and a case of Hunter’s homemade wine

  77. CrazyCoach says:

    stush18: Haha ya I saw that too.

    I broke my ankle and could walk without a boot or a limp.

    But put a slight twist in it and I collapsed.

    Yeah, nothing in there about muscular stability or alignment.

    Just a very poor version of a field test Punch Imlach probably used.

  78. Lewis Grant says:

    So what happens if in the 9 games, Yamamoto tears it up as well? Are you going to suggest he get sent down just because?

    Yes, absolutely.

    1. Sam Gagner scored 8 points in his 9 games. It took him another 40 games to get another 8 points.

    2. In a cap world, you have to maximize your assets. That means getting the most out of your ELCs. That means waiting until players on ELCs are really ready.

    3. How many 18-year-olds contribute to winning? Even the few that score 40 points are usually defensive liabilities.

    4. You have to make them earn it over years, not over a handful of preseason games. They need to develop mental toughtness.

    5. Also, you don’t put them into injury risk when they’re not physically ready. As tough as KY is, he’s still tiny by NHL standards. Byfuglien could turn him into a smudge mark.

    The Oilers have continually messed up by rushing prospects. Surely they have learned something from the decade of darkness.

  79. Side says:

    CrazyCoach:
    The first three words of Spector’s tweet are as about the truest statement you’ll ever hear, followed by the classic, “Saw him good” rehabilitation statement about no limping.140 characters is not a lot, but there’s a lot more to an ACL tear than not limping.

    Reminds me of people saying

    “How come Andrew Ference is on disability?? He’s riding a bike and walking just fine!”

  80. OriginalPouzar says:

    Side: Reminds me of people saying

    “How come Andrew Ference is on disability?? He’s riding a bike and walking just fine!”

    Competing in triathlons – seems to be strenuous for the hip but maybe not.

  81. VOR says:

    Kinger_Oil.redux,

    I have said before that I think Connor McDavid will score a lot more points this year. I am just not sure that will have the impact on the Oilers’ point totals you think it will. This is because I continue to think (for many reasons) that the total number of goals scored in the NHL this year will jump significantly.

    Woodguy’s brilliant analysis of scoring over the modern era of hockey at becauseoilers shows the trend line in even strength scoring and I think that trend is going to accelerate. Woodguy is right if power play opportunities suddenly increase then scoring will rocket up. The combination of the two could make a 20 point increase by McDavid largely an exercise is running in place.

    I think it is possible the highest scoring teams in the league might get to 300 goals and that if the Oilers only allow 207 goals this year they might be in the top three defensive teams in hockey.

  82. maudite says:

    5. Key for me. No denying the kid has skills but giving him the best opportunity to fill out and strengthen is massive. We ice him this year I’ll bet at least 10 games out on a shoulder related injury. If you want to maximize his potential and sustainability longer term to starting to break him down at 18 is not wise.

    Lewis Grant: thrilled

  83. CrazyCoach says:

    OriginalPouzar: Competing in triathlons – seems to be strenuous for the hip but maybe not.

    Not as much torsion on the hip, nor a 220 lb jerkoff like Ryan Getzlaf nailing you from behind.

  84. Side says:

    Lewis Grant:
    So what happens if in the 9 games, Yamamoto tears it up as well? Are you going to suggest he get sent down just because?

    Yes, absolutely.

    1. Sam Gagner scored 8 points in his 9 games.It took him another 40 games to get another 8 points.

    2. In a cap world, you have to maximize your assets.That means getting the most out of your ELCs.That means waiting until players on ELCs are really ready.

    3. How many 18-year-olds contribute to winning?Even the few that score 40 points are usually defensive liabilities.

    4. You have to make them earn it over years, not over a handful of preseason games.They need to develop mental toughtness.

    5. Also, you don’t put them into injury risk when they’re not physically ready.As tough as KY is, he’s still tiny by NHL standards.Byfuglien could turn him into a smudge mark.

    The Oilers have continually messed up by rushing prospects.Surely they have learned something from the decade of darkness.

    Everyone develops differently. Creating some arbitrary rule like “all players should play in the AHL until they are 20-21 years old” or something to that effect doesn’t make sense.

    If KY kills it in his first 9 games it seems wrong to send him down for a lot of reasons.

    “You’re small, you could get hurt against someone like Byfuglien” – already played against Byfuglien, didn’t get turned into a smudge. A lot of players bigger than KY can also get turned into a smudge by Byfuglien, should they all get sent down as well?

    “Sam Gagner got 8 points in 9 games” – KY is not Sam Gagner

    “Getting the most out of ELC” – people have discussed how burning a year of a player’s ELC could mean signing them for cheaper at the end of their ELC. Logic being by burning a year they will be further out from their prime.

    “How many 18 year olds contribute to winning games?” – KY has been playing pretty well defensively, he has been causing turnovers and is a dog for the puck. Hard for the other team to score when they don’t have the puck.

    “Earn it over the years” – why if they’re earning it now? Teams should be playing their best players. I don’t know of many successful teams who win based on picking players based on seniority and not performance. People were livid that Matt Hendricks was still playing and taking a spot of younger, better players. Having a veteran presence is important, for sure and that’s different. But if you have a bare RW and you have JP or KY to choose from, why wouldn’t you pick the player who is performing the best out of the 2? I don’t see why JP should get it just because he had a year in the AHL.

  85. Ca$h-McMoney! says:

    TSN released their top 50 players list:

    http://www.tsn.ca/a-new-no-1-mcdavid-edges-crosby-in-tsn-s-top-50-player-poll-1.867210

    Taylor Hall must be 51.

  86. Side says:

    OriginalPouzar: Competing in triathlons – seems to be strenuous for the hip but maybe not.

    I believe Ference was cycling and swimming fine but said running was the most painful.

  87. Kinger_Oil.redux says:

    stush18: We went over this earlier this month I believe, but Pitt actually is dynamite on the PP on faceoffs. And if you look at the top PP teams, most all have much better PP faceoffs %.

    It honestly looks like some teams are “gaming” faceoffs.Maybe it’s the extra man helping?

    Either way, I can’t discount faceoffs.

    To me it’s like people discounting corsi because it’s correlation to winning has been eroding over the last few years.

    Why bother tracking it? It’s at an all time low for correlation to winning. Might as well not put any stock into it, same as faceoffs.

    All of these things matter.

    – Virtually every team wins more FO than they lose on the PP., so there is some gaming for sure

    – Last year Pitts won 54.5% of their PP FO’s: (266 of 488)

    – Last year Colorado 62% of the PP FO’s (260 of 420)

    – Sure they “matter”, I’m just providing some context to how much, which isn’t much IMO

    – F/O’s are a good narrative for colour commentators, and they are a good way to reset the game, cause some drama: “important face-off coming up” kind of stuff

    – Each one “matters”, but as a whole the evidence is pretty compelling that we should look elsewhere than “getting better at faceoffs” to improve our wins.

  88. OriginalPouzar says:

    Oil are going to make some cuts today and there will be a fairly veteran lineup in Saskatoon.

    Yamamoto will be playing on Wed.

  89. Lewis Grant says:

    burning a year of a player’s ELC could mean signing them for cheaper at the end of their ELC.

    That sure worked out well with Draisaitl. We only had to pay him $2M more per year than Pastrnak and Gaudreau!

    Side: But if you have a bare RW and you have JP or KY to choose from, why wouldn’t you pick the player who is performing the best out of the 2? I don’t see why JP should get it just because he had a year in the AHL.

    I agree. Neither of them should get it. There are plenty of 30-year-old scoring wingers available for just money.

    As for the other points, I rest my case.

  90. teddyturnbuckle says:

    LT I always enjoy listening to your show on podcast as I live in Kelowna and can’t catch you live on the radio when I’m at work. I listen to most of the other oiler radio shows also and if I could offer some constructive criticism to you it would be this. Please cut out the ads on your podcasts. I do believe your show is the only one left that hasn’t done this. I’ll be listening to your show with my head phones on when all of a sudden the ads come on at an ear blasting volume and I have to turn it off.

  91. Kinger_Oil.redux says:

    VOR:
    Kinger_Oil.redux,

    I have said before that I think Connor McDavid will score a lot more points this year. I am just not sure that will have the impact on the Oilers’ point totals you think it will. This is because I continue to think (for many reasons) that the total number of goals scored in the NHL this year will jump significantly.

    – Well I’m not sure either, but as i said it wouldn’t surprise me to see them be a lot better

    – All things being equal, 20 more points from CmD should increase the teams point total from 103 to higher. How much higher : your mileage may vary!

    – They were only 3 wins away from being 2nd best team in league.

    – It’s interesting that Buffalo, Toronto, Pittsburg, Caps and the Oil were the best PP teams. If your right about more goals because more penalties called: all these teams have high-end talent

  92. greenshifter says:

    Please mark me down for 106pts Hunter, Thank You

  93. Side says:

    Lewis Grant:
    burning a year of a player’s ELC could mean signing them for cheaper at the end of their ELC.

    That sure worked out well with Draisaitl.We only had to pay him $2M more per year than Pastrnak and Gaudreau!

    Side: But if you have a bare RW and you have JP or KY to choose from, why wouldn’t you pick the player who is performing the best out of the 2? I don’t see why JP should get it just because he had a year in the AHL.

    I agree.Neither of them should get it.There are plenty of 30-year-old scoring wingers available for just money.

    As for the other points, I rest my case.

    Pretty sure the $2m more per year in Draisaitl’s case didn’t have much to do with how his ELC was handled. From most accounts I have read Drai’s higher contract was because McDavid signed for $12.5 mil.

    Sure, you could sign an expensive 30 year old, that’s always an option.

    Not sure exactly what you “rested your case on”, but okay.

  94. RexLibris says:

    In 1995-1996 the Detroit Red Wings finished the year 62-13-7 for 131 points.

    At 82 games, the maximum possible is 164.

    So I’m going to say the Oilers finish the year at 165.

    Shove those stats up yer tailpipe, nerds!

    😉

  95. Profit says:

    Ca$h-McMoney!:
    TSN released their top 50 players list:

    http://www.tsn.ca/a-new-no-1-mcdavid-edges-crosby-in-tsn-s-top-50-player-poll-1.867210

    Taylor Hall must be 51.

    That’s correct. From the article:

    Marner, 20, edged out New Jersey winger Taylor Hall for the final spot on the list.

  96. OriginalPouzar says:

    Patrick Russell and Nick Ellis assigned to Bakersfield.

    Simpson and Rattie on waivers for purposes of assignment to Bakersfield.

  97. OriginalPouzar says:

    Lewis Grant:
    burning a year of a player’s ELC could mean signing them for cheaper at the end of their ELC.

    That sure worked out well with Draisaitl.We only had to pay him $2M more per year than Pastrnak and Gaudreau!

    Side: But if you have a bare RW and you have JP or KY to choose from, why wouldn’t you pick the player who is performing the best out of the 2? I don’t see why JP should get it just because he had a year in the AHL.

    I agree.Neither of them should get it.There are plenty of 30-year-old scoring wingers available for just money.

    As for the other points, I rest my case.

    If Drai was an RFA next summer coming off a year similar to this year, he would likely be approaching, if not over, $10M – signing in the same window as Eichel, Matthews, etc.

  98. VOR says:

    Kinger_Oil.redux,

    Consider what happens if we go with Woodguy’s idea of adding 1.23 penalties per game per team. (In his argument this brings the league back to the average # of penalties it called for 30 years). If we keep the Oilers statistics constant the Oilers score 22 more goals and that probably gives Connor McDavid close to another 20 points. However the Oilers give up 19 more goals on the penalty kill so it probably has no effect on the Oilers points or winning%.

  99. OriginalPouzar says:

    So Malone survives another set of cuts.

    I don’t recall Callahan being re-assigned – am I forgetting or is he still here?

    Can’t believe Fayne is still here but the 7D job is clearly Auvitu’s unless Stanton can get in to the last couple of games and show well.

  100. DaveWatchesHockey says:

    VOR:
    I thought those of you playing Hunter’s Death March might find the following analysis interesting.

    I went back to 2005-2006 and started looking at what happened to the top ten teams (as measured by total points) in the following year. So for 2005-2006’s top ten teams what I wanted to know was how they did in total points in 2006-2007. I did this for each year – for the years effected by the lock out I adjusted to a full year worth of data for the lockout year (2012-2013).

    Of top ten point total teams 32 of 110 got better the next year. 78 of 110 got worse.

    For those that got better the average improvement was 6 points more.

    For those that got worse the average drop was 10 points.

    39% dropped out of the top ten the following year.

    The biggest gain from year to the next was 19 points by the Washington Capitals from 2014-2015 to 2015-2016.
    The biggest loss from one year to the next was 45 points by the Philadelphia Flyers from 2005-2006 to 2006-2007.

    So if you use averages a reasonable expectation for the Edmonton Oilers would be 109 to 93
    But if you used the biggest gains or losses as outer markers the range is 122 to 58.

    Thanks VOR. Nice analysis and very helpful.

    Put me down for 123 points Hunter. Thanks.

    Dave

  101. Melman says:

    Profit: That’s correct. From the article:

    Marner, 20, edged out New Jersey winger Taylor Hall for the final spot on the list.

    Kopitar at 38 is a head scratcher. He was terrific when he was rolling, but speed was never his game, he just hit 30 on the odometer and isn’t playing with his twin brother. I’ll take OEL at this point in their games thank you very much

  102. Snowman says:

    Lots of interesting discussion here today. A lot of pessimistic discussion too.

    If you want to have a good organization you have to reward people based on merit. I think that basically is the golden rule to success in any organization.

    Yamamoto has earned whatever he gets on merit. Is he higher on the depth chart than JP on merit through training camp? You bet he is. If he kills it through 9 games in regular season does he deserve a 10th? You bet he does. If he struggles from game 10-20 should he go to junior? Yup.

    The difference between Yamo and JP this year and all the other young player who cracked the roster at 18 this past decade is there are proper NHL veterans in front of them. Strome, Kassian, Caggiulla, Slepyshev are all NHLers.

    If Yamo makes the team and contributes its because he beat out somebody else who was qualified. As long as he or JP are beating out regular NHLers than whatever ice time they earn, they should get.

    You can be concerned about Yamo being physically ready for the punishing NHL grind of 82 games and that’s legitimate. But if you’re talking merit, you have no argument for sending Yamo down that makes reasonable sense. As long as he succeeds and produces and can do his job than he deserves what he gets.

    Merit is the only measuring stick that matters in my opinion. That’s what good organizations do.

  103. Kinger_Oil.redux says:

    Snowman:

    If you want to have a good organization you have to reward people based on merit. I think that basically is the golden rule to success in any organization.

    Yamamoto has earned whatever he gets on merit. Is he higher on the depth chart than JP on merit through training camp? You bet he is.

    The difference between Yamo and JP this year and all the other young player who cracked the roster at 18 this past decade is there are proper NHL veterans in front of them. Strome, Kassian, Caggiulla, Slepyshev are all NHLers.

    Merit is the only measuring stick that matters in my opinion. That’s what good organizations do.

    – It’s nice to see you posting again! Hope all is well with new family and job if I recall.

    – I tend to agree with you, but part of “merit” is following the programme

    – Kailer looks better than Pool, we’d agree, however, Pool has done his year in NHL/AHL, and on that basis, he hasn’t sucked and is more deserving of the spot in top-9

    – to the extent the organization wants to reward a small sample size of clearly superior performance over the merit of process is the rub. the jump from Junior to NHL is substantial

    – Also, for the organization: the timing of turning on Kailer’s 3-years next year vs this year is a significant consideration IMO

    – For what it’s worth my gut says: give Kailer his 9 games as a reward for his merit, and send pool down for 9 games: win-win. Kailer will fly and die as adrenaline wears off and the reality of the grind of a season will catch up, and Pool goes all Drai: all good stuff

    – Over 82 games, I’d be hard pressed to believe the 25-40 points Kailer might score can’t be replaced by other players (i.e. Sheppy + Pool)

    – Both Pool and Kailer have pluses and minuses. It’s a good problem to have, and they are not being gifted roster spots which is just awesome…

    – For sure the “plan” was Pool in top-9, Kailer training camp exposure but the results are in

    – Now if after 9 games Kailer be like super-nova sure, but don’t be fooled by small sample sizes: its really really rare for players to jump from Junoir to NHL, and frankly we don’t “need” Kailer’s production, as we have so many vets as you point out…

    – I much prefer the Leaf’s approach who let Marner and Nylander marinate a year, even thought they “might” have been ready last year…

  104. hunter1909 says:

    RexLibris:
    In 1995-1996 the Detroit Red Wings finished the year 62-13-7 for 131 points.

    At 82 games, the maximum possible is 164.

    So I’m going to say the Oilers finish the year at 165.

    Shove those stats up yer tailpipe, nerds!

    😉

    165 points is impossible. Your 165 total will merely be lowered to the 164 possible.

  105. Ca$h-McMoney! says:

    digger50,

    That Taylor Hall must be the 51st ranked player….. which was later confirmed by Profit.

  106. Snowman says:

    Kinger_Oil.redux,

    Things are good. Hope everything is good with you Kinger!

    I agree with your logic on all of that. Your point regarding orginizational timing for contract extensions is well taken. That’s bang on. It definitely does factor and it should. That’s Chiarelli’s job.

    I also agree with you, its likely that he’s a not an impact player this year and his production could come from somewhere else. However, I have issue with people saying send him down no matter what. If he’s at the end of 9 games and has 3 or 4 goals and 6 or 7 points, I just don’t see how you can send him down unless you start to factor in the contract status, physical readiness, etc etc. If after 15 games he still has 6 or 7 points and hasn’t done much for 5 or 6 games send him down. Obviously tonnes of other factors play into these decisions.

    I don’t really care if KY is on the team or not. I mostly care that the Oilers make decisions based on winning hockey games. Whoever helps you win the most games should play. If its close between an ELC and an already signed vet, pick the vet.

    If its close between JP and KY, defer to the guy who has already burned a year ELC to play.

    I was trying to make the point that if Kailer plays this year, he’s not being rushed if he’s a productive member of a deep, contending team.

    The dynamic changes when the team is good and full of vets compared to when Gagner or Nuge or Yak were brought in and the team was garbage.

    Having said all that, I fully expect KY to get sent down as soon as Slepy is ready to go. I’d be hard pressed to argue that’s a bad decision if/when it happens.

  107. Thinker says:

    PC seems more concerned with getting guys signed long term earlier. Thus why he burned a year of JP. The maximize ELC idea is ok imo, but it misses the bigger picture.

  108. russ99 says:

    Pat Kane was a few inches taller and a few pounds lighter than Kailer in his 19 year old rookie year.

    So it’s not like there’s no precedent.

  109. Professor Q says:

    russ99:
    Pat Kane was a few inches taller and a few pounds lighter than Kailer in his 19 year old rookie year.

    So it’s not like there’s no precedent.

    And you may say that I’m a dreamer, but he wasn’t the only one.

  110. Cassandra says:

    Over the long term, teams have to make decisions on the basis of merit. However, training camp isn’t the long term. No winning team makes long term decisions on the basis of what happens in training camp. It’s a fool’s gambit.

    If you think Kailer should be on the team it is because a) you don’t think past performance is predictive of future performance, and b) you don’t think years of contractual control matter, in the face of all evidence in pro sports, that it matters a great deal.

  111. rickithebear says:

    16yr season:
    Draisatl (U18 DNL) 35gm 21G 35A 56P;
    U17 WJ 5gm 1G 4A 5p; U18 WJ 6gm 2G 4A 6p
    Tkachuk (USHL) 33gm 5G 12A 17P
    U18 WJ 7gm 2G 10A 12P
    Puljujarvi (SM-ligga) 21gm 4G 7A 11P;
    (mestis League 1) 15gm 8G 5A 13P; u18 WJ 7gm 2G 5A 7P

    17yr season:
    Draisatl (WHL) 64gm 21G 37A 58P
    U18 WJ 5gm 1G 6A 7P; U20 WJ 7gm 2G 4A 6P
    Tkachuk (USHL) 24gm 13G 20A 33P
    Puljujarvi (SM-ligga) 50gm 13G 15A 28P; Playoffs 10gm 4G 5A 9P; picked #4 2016 draft
    U18 WJ 4gm 5g 2A 7p; U2o WJ 7gm 5g 12A 17P 17yr old MVP (gretzky; Bure)

    18 yr season:
    Draisatl (WHL) 64gm 38G 67A 105P; picked #3 2014 draft
    Tkachuk (OHL) 57gm 30G 77A 107P; Picked #6 16 draft
    U20 WJ 7gm 4G 7A 11P
    Puljujarvi
    (NHL) 28gm 1G 7A 8P +5; (AHL) 39gm 12G 16A 28P

    19yr Season:
    Draisatl
    NHL 37gm 2G 7A 9P; WHL 32gm 19G 34A 53P; Mem cup MVP
    Tkachuk (NHL) 76gm 13G 35A 48P; Playoffs 4gm 0G 0P
    Puljujarvi (NHL) Preseason???

    20yr Season
    Draisatl On roster for 72gm
    NHL 72gm 19G 32A 51P
    Tkachuk Preseason

    21yr season
    Draisatl (NHL) 82gm 29G 48A 77P; playoffs 13gm 16P

  112. northof51 says:

    hunter1909,

    Put me down for 95 points – worked for us in ’06!

    Thanks Hunter!

  113. GBandQ says:

    hunter1909,

    101 points, s’il vous plait!

  114. Rocknrolla says:

    hunter1909,

    Hello Hunter,

    I will go with 97 points. Thanks!

  115. Lewis Grant says:

    OriginalPouzar: If Drai was an RFA next summer coming off a year similar to this year, he would likely be approaching, if not over, $10M – signing in the same window as Eichel, Matthews, etc.

    After a 55-point season centering his own line? (Basic regression brings him down to low 60s, and playing away from McDavid brings him even lower). I doubt it.

    Eichel and Matthews will probably score 80-90 points centering their own lines.

    (Buy a house now! It will only be more expensive next year! Just like the NASDAQ in 1999!)

  116. Lewis Grant says:

    Snowman: Merit is the only measuring stick that matters in my opinion. That’s what good organizations do.

    Merit is proven over a long period of time. Not over 4 games against AHL/ECHL teams and one game against Carolina.

    Future superstar TJ Hensick once led the NHL in preseason scoring.

  117. OriginalPouzar says:

    Lewis Grant: After a 55-point season centering his own line?(Basic regression brings him down to low 60s, and playing away from McDavid brings him even lower).I doubt it.

    Eichel and Matthews will probably score 80-90 points centering their own lines.

    (Buy a house now!It will only be more expensive next year!Just like the NASDAQ in 1999!)

    He very well could produce at a similar rate to next year with his time split between 2C and 1RW along with PP1. Sure, that’s speculation but to state the opposite is speculation as well. He has gotten better in various areas of his game year over year and I expect that natural progression and development will continue so his play away from McDavid will be much improved.

  118. Lewis Grant says:

    OriginalPouzar: He very well could produce at a similar rate to next year with his time split between 2C and 1RW along with PP1. Sure, that’s speculation but to state the opposite is speculation as well. He has gotten better in various areas of his game year over year and I expect that natural progression and development will continue so his play away from McDavid will be much improved.

    Yeah, he will probably have more points than I suggested, because he’ll be deployed (mistakenly in my mind) as 1RW next to McDavid. But his 17% shooting percentage is almost certain to drop, probably by a lot.

    I hope he will continue to develop. But there’s no guarantee. RNH had 0.8 PPG in his 18-year-old season and hasn’t been anywhere close since. Eberle never came close to repeating his breakout year. Hall has not come close to repeating his age 21-22 seasons.

    Either way, it boggles the mind that Chiarelli couldn’t use the hammer of “how badly do you want to play on McDavid’s team?” Is he going to overpay Maroon next?

  119. Whatif says:

    What if all the comments and concerns on this subject are a “tempest in a tea pot”?

    Everybody appears to be analysing pre-season games as if they were game four of the SC playoffs.

    Lighten up a bit. The Oilers have a good team. They will be in the playoffs and maybe even in contention for the Cup this year.

    To analyze these games to death is of little value. The whole purpose of these games is to expose young players to different situations against decent competition under the eyes/microscope of the Oilers brain trust. I would hazard a guess that the toddler and Pete are looking at these players somewhat differently than you and I are. After all, they are the pros getting paid a gazillion dollars to do so.

    What will be interesting is to see how things shake out over the first quarter of the season. This will set the table for establishing the Oilers true roster. It may even set up a need for a trade or a recall.

    In any event, it will be both interesting and exciting. I am truly looking forward to this season. It should be a great one.

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