A MOONLIGHT MILE DOWN THE ROAD

This time of year you hear and read some strange things from various NHL camps. Stories have been brewing for two weeks in 30 cities (and Winnipeg), but we’re closing in now on  opening night so reports coming in have more urgency. Waivers? Trades? “What the actual hell?” is the most common sentence in the hockey world this time of year. Let’s roll.

BRANDON DAVIDSON

  • Jared Book: In three pre-season contests, Davidson has done little to separate himself from a pack of defenders that has been mediocre at best. With a chance to solidify a place on the opening night roster, Davidson hasn’t stood out in a good way despite arguably being the best defender, on paper, of the bunch. Source

When a player is struggling, I ask myself a series of questions. Is he 40? No. Davidson is 26. Is he injured? Doesn’t seem so. Is he being used in the right situation? So far away to know that answer but this young man was a fantastic option for the Oilers not so long ago. I’d certainly pick him up in a trade for the Oilers, he could help a team based on what we saw a season ago.

VILLE POKKA

The excellent Prospect-Stats site is very informative in all areas but really helps us with AHL defenders. Among the things the site tells us about Pokka (all 5×5):

  • Among Rockford defensemen last year, he played with the top qual team.
  • Among Rockford defensemen last year, he played second pair qual comp.
  • Among Rockford defensemen last year, he was No. 2 in TOI.
  • Among Rockford defensemen last year, he was No. 1 in estimated points-per-60.
  • Source

I like this player quite a bit but can see where the Oilers would pass on the opportunity. A more established player like Colin Miller (or Cody Franson) would probably be a better fit. Pokka is worth a claim for some team, though.

PETER CHIARELLI

Unless Peter Chiarelli has a target who could come available early next month, I don’t understand this thinking. I can buy the idea of creating (trade or actual) value on RW so that Anton Slepyshev or another has value for asset exchange at the deadline but this blue line needs real help. Andrej Sekera isn’t guaranteed to be 100 percent when he returns and this seems a curious course of action. Maybe he sees Yohann Auvitu as a very real long-term option? I don’t claim to be an expert, but I can’t really see the thinking from here on the defense.

Gerry Jagger is teasing hockey fans now. Sign dammit! I’ve long ago given up on the idea JJ would spend another winter in the frozen north, but there are 31 teams in the league. Pick one, for crying out loud!

JESSE PULJUJARVI

If he gets sent down, please, please, please calm your tits. If you spend even a little time monitoring  prospects, it becomes clear not all of these kids develop in a straight line. Jesse Puljujarvi may end up being the third best Finn on that electric World Junior line (Patrick Lane, Sebastian Aho) and still be a productive NHL player. The question that remains about him (goal-scoring) can be answered in Bakersfield as well as in Edmonton. 15 goals with the Oilers or 30 with Bakersfield, either way we’ll have our answer by next spring. Honestly, that’s the goal with this prospect. Let’s get him surrounded as a player.

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80 Responses to "A MOONLIGHT MILE DOWN THE ROAD"

  1. OriginalPouzar says:

    I will not be concerned if JP gets sent down to Bakersfield – maybe a bit disappointed as I was hoping camp would show a marked progression – but not worried about his potential.

    Lets not forget that he is 19 and still adjusting and growing in to his body. Leon Draisaitl started his 2nd year post draft in the AHL.

    Blake Wheeler took years to develop in to the stud he has become.

    I would be concerned if JP isn’t a PPG in the AHL notwithstanding the lack of top end offence on the team.

  2. OriginalPouzar says:

    So much “sign Jagr” talk out there.

    Sure, I’ll take Jagr but I can’t believe that Jagr would take Edmonton – not at this stage of his career – the far north west and, most importantly, the travel.

  3. Lowetide says:

    OriginalPouzar:
    I will not be concerned if JP gets sent down to Bakersfield – maybe a bit disappointed as I was hoping camp would show a marked progression – but not worried about his potential.

    Lets not forget that he is 19 and still adjusting and growing in to his body.Leon Draisaitl started his 2nd year post draft in the AHL.

    Blake Wheeler took years to develop in to the stud he has become.

    I would be concerned if JP isn’t a PPG in the AHL notwithstanding the lack of top end offence on the team.

    My only disappointment is that JP apparently didn’t work on his shot.I had hoped he would spend part of summer working on getting it away quicker.

  4. Professor Q says:

    OriginalPouzar:
    So much “sign Jagr” talk out there.

    Sure, I’ll take Jagr but I can’t believe that Jagr would take Edmonton – not at this stage of his career – the far north west and, most importantly, the travel.

    He’ll take what he can get I guess. If it’s true that no GM has called him yet then what happens if Chia comes calling mid-October, and is the only one?

  5. OriginalPouzar says:

    Pokka is an interesting target – good size, good box-cars in the AHL (although -25 last year), shoots right.

  6. OriginalPouzar says:

    Lowetide: My only disappointment is that JP apparently didn’t work on his shot.I had hoped he would spend part of summer working on getting it away quicker.

    I think its tough for the super young kids that head back to Europe in the off-season.

    He likely didn’t have a great program for his training – we should get him in the Czech Republic with Drai next off-season.

  7. OriginalPouzar says:

    Professor Q: He’ll take what he can get I guess. If it’s true that no GM has called him yet then what happens if Chia comes calling mid-October, and is the only one?

    I don’t believe no GM has called him yet. Are you getting at that funny tweet of his from a few months ago?

    I don’t believe that he’ll just take what he can get – in fact, I think he’s likely quite selective with respect to location and that is the reason he hasn’t signed. I just don’t see him signing with a Western Canadian team and travelling tens of thousands of extra miles when he’s played 30 odd games for Western Conference teams in his entire career.

    If he was willing to sign anywhere, he’d be signed – there is interest for sure.

    This is just my unsubstantiated thoughts on the Jagr situation.

  8. HugThePost says:

    I wouldn’t expect Chia to broadcast his wants/ needs, so I’m not surprised to see the lukewarm quote about upgrading his D. Deep inside, he probably has a more substantial plan; he must know that the team’s window is officially wide open and they need to win now.

  9. Woodguy v2.0 says:

    The question with Jagr isn’t opportunity, it’s money.

    He had $X guaranteed in the KHL.

    A NHL team has to beat it or come close.

    my guess is that it would take at least 3.5MM and that lessens the number of teams by quite a bit.

    Competitiveness doesn’t matter. He played for NJD when they weren’t a contender.

    I’m not sure location matters, he’s played in a lot of spots.

    Jagr loves to gamble.

    “It’s money that matters” – Randy Newman and Yammy Yagir

  10. Westchester Oil says:

    Nice little put-down of Winnipeg, LT. 🙂

  11. Lowetide says:

    Westchester Oil:
    Nice little put-down of Winnipeg, LT.🙂

    I actually like Winnipeg and Manitoba people but it fit. 🙂

  12. who says:

    OriginalPouzar: I don’t believe no GM has called him yet.Are you getting at that funny tweet of his from a few months ago?

    I don’t believe that he’ll just take what he can get – in fact, I think he’s likely quite selective with respect to location and that is the reason he hasn’t signed. I just don’t see him signing with a Western Canadian team and travelling tens of thousands of extra miles when he’s played 30 odd games for Western Conference teams in his entire career.

    If he was willing to sign anywhere, he’d be signed – there is interest for sure.

    This is just my unsubstantiated thoughts on the Jagr situation.

    Just say no to Jagr.
    The oilers don’t need another big slow winger. At this point in his career he is not an upgrade over what we have.
    Saw him play live in Phoenix last year and the only thing that stood out was how slow he is. At this point he is a drag on a skill line.

  13. Woodguy v2.0 says:

    who: Just say no to Jagr.
    The oilers don’t need another big slow winger. At this point in his career he is not an upgrade over what we have.
    Saw him play live in Phoenix last year and the only thing that stood out was how slow he is. At this point he is a drag on a skill line.

    I’m curious why you think Jagr wouldn’t be an upgrade on one of Yamamoto, Puljujariv, Strome, Slepeshev or Kassian?

  14. who says:

    Woodguy v2.0: I’m curious why you think Jagr wouldn’t be an upgrade on one of Yamamoto, Puljujariv, Strome, Slepeshev or Kassian?

    I just think people are expecting the Jagr from 10 years ago and he’s just not that player anymore.
    I think he was riding the coat tails of guys like Barkov and company last year and he’s gonna be worse this year. Guys don’t improve at age 46.
    I think the oilers young wingers will put up just as many points as Jagr would and have a lot more to offer in terms of speed and 200 ft play.

  15. Brantford Boy says:

    Lowetide,

    +1… still wants to line the disc up top shelf or wherever he could on sub-elite goalies… just shoot the damn thing!

  16. Brantford Boy says:

    Woodguy v2.0,

    and Fred Flintstone…

  17. DenverOilFan says:

    Did you guys just see that between the legs, backhand shelf goal by Eberle?!! Wish him well, hope he keeps it up (the goal scoring) 😉

  18. The Prototype JDî says:

    DenverOilFan,

    If only it were preseason all year long.

  19. OriginalPouzar says:

    I have little doubt that Eberle is going to have a nice bounce-back year with his shooting percentage normalized.

    This team needed some future cap relief, however, as we are seeing in camp, we have some pretty big questions at top 6 RW in the short term.

  20. Yeti says:

    OriginalPouzar: I will not be concerned if JP gets sent down to Bakersfield – maybe a bit disappointed as I was hoping camp would show a marked progression – but not worried about his potential.

    With 8% body fat, you have no tits to calm. You are not our concern.

  21. The Trade Guy says:

    Jagr is the coolest hockey player and the Oilers are the coolest team. It only makes sense.

  22. digger50 says:

    DenverOilFan:
    Did you guys just see that between the legs, backhand shelf goal by Eberle?!! Wish him well, hope he keeps it up (the goal scoring)

    Yup, beautiful goal

  23. Woodguy v2.0 says:

    who,

    I just think people are expecting the Jagr from 10 years ago and he’s just not that player anymore.
    I think he was riding the coat tails of guys like Barkov and company last year and he’s gonna be worse this year. Guys don’t improve at age 46.

    Let’s see if the data backs up that assertion (all data courtesy of the awesome puckiq.com)

    TOI together and apart:
    Players TOI
    Jaromir Jagr w Aleksander Barkov 750.43
    Jaromir Jagr w/o Aleksander Barkov 88.97
    Aleksander Barkov w/o Jaromir Jagr 98.22

    CF% together and apart:
    Players CF%
    Jaromir Jagr w Aleksander Barkov 56.7
    Jaromir Jagr w/o Aleksander Barkov 50.6
    Aleksander Barkov w/o Jaromir Jagr 39.7

    DFF% together and apart:
    Players DFF%
    Jaromir Jagr w Aleksander Barkov 54.3
    Jaromir Jagr w/o Aleksander Barkov 49.2
    Aleksander Barkov w/o Jaromir Jagr 36.2

    To be fair to Barkov, who I like a lot, he was injured or coming off of injury for most of the year.

    Puckiq.com uses only games both players played in for WOWY to get a “true” WOWY.

    Conclusion:

    I think he was riding the coat tails of guys like Barkov and company last year and he’s gonna be worse this year. Guys don’t improve at age 46

    No sir.

    That is incorrect according to the results that happened on the ice.

  24. The Trade Guy says:

    Woodguy v2.0:
    who,

    I just think people are expecting the Jagr from 10 years ago and he’s just not that player anymore.
    I think he was riding the coat tails of guys like Barkov and company last year and he’s gonna be worse this year. Guys don’t improve at age 46.

    Let’s see if the data backs up that assertion (all data courtesy of the awesome puckiq.com)

    TOI together and apart:
    PlayersTOI
    Jaromir Jagr w Aleksander Barkov750.43
    Jaromir Jagr w/o Aleksander Barkov88.97
    Aleksander Barkov w/o Jaromir Jagr98.22

    CF% together and apart:
    PlayersCF%
    Jaromir Jagr w Aleksander Barkov56.7
    Jaromir Jagr w/o Aleksander Barkov50.6
    Aleksander Barkov w/o Jaromir Jagr39.7

    GF% together and apart:PlayersGF%
    Jaromir Jagr w Aleksander Barkov58.9
    Jaromir Jagr w/o Aleksander Barkov66.7
    Aleksander Barkov w/o Jaromir Jagr53.3

    To be fair to Barkov, who I like a lot, he was injured or coming off of injury for most of the year.

    Puckiq.com uses only games both players played in for WOWY to get a “true” WOWY.

    Conclusion:

    I think he was riding the coat tails of guys like Barkov and company last year and he’s gonna be worse this year. Guys don’t improve at age 46

    No sir.

    That is incorrect according to the results that happened on the ice.

    This is the effort post for saying Jagr is the coolest.

  25. GMB3 says:

    Lowetide: My only disappointment is that JP apparently didn’t work on his shot.I had hoped he would spend part of summer working on getting it away quicker.

    Tough to say he didn’t work on it from here

  26. Ribzyrich says:

    Big Georges was on with Bob the other day talking about Davidson. He was very confused with Davidson usage during pre season. Said he has been having to drag rookies around all preseason.

    He did say he would be in tough to make the top 7 in Montreal.

  27. Munny says:

    Woodguy v2.0:
    who,

    I just think people are expecting the Jagr from 10 years ago and he’s just not that player anymore.
    I think he was riding the coat tails of guys like Barkov and company last year and he’s gonna be worse this year. Guys don’t improve at age 46.

    Let’s see if the data backs up that assertion (all data courtesy of the awesome puckiq.com)

    TOI together and apart:
    PlayersTOI
    Jaromir Jagr w Aleksander Barkov750.43
    Jaromir Jagr w/o Aleksander Barkov88.97
    Aleksander Barkov w/o Jaromir Jagr98.22

    CF% together and apart:
    PlayersCF%
    Jaromir Jagr w Aleksander Barkov56.7
    Jaromir Jagr w/o Aleksander Barkov50.6
    Aleksander Barkov w/o Jaromir Jagr39.7

    DFF% together and apart:
    PlayersDFF%
    Jaromir Jagr w Aleksander Barkov54.3
    Jaromir Jagr w/o Aleksander Barkov49.2
    Aleksander Barkov w/o Jaromir Jagr36.2

    To be fair to Barkov, who I like a lot, he was injured or coming off of injury for most of the year.

    Puckiq.com uses only games both players played in for WOWY to get a “true” WOWY.

    Conclusion:

    I think he was riding the coat tails of guys like Barkov and company last year and he’s gonna be worse this year. Guys don’t improve at age 46

    No sir.

    That is incorrect according to the results that happened on the ice.

    Thank you for providing this.

    When I see such drastic differences in the numbers from the main sample, ie together, I have to ask myself, is there something else going on here?

    Also, I think it is only fair to post the TOI for the Dangerous F WOWY.

  28. Woodguy v2.0 says:

    The Trade Guy: This is the effort post for saying Jagr is the coolest.

    I’d buy a jersey.

  29. Woodguy v2.0 says:

    Munny,

    Also, I think it is only fair to post the TOI for the Dangerous F WOWY.

    There is TOI vs Elite F’s. Raw and % with DFF%.

    There are Dangerous Fenick’s vs each bin.

    There is no Dangerous WOWY right now.

    Should be in a week or so.

  30. Woodguy v2.0 says:

    Woodguy v2.0:
    Munny,

    Also, I think it is only fair to post the TOI for the Dangerous F WOWY.

    There is TOI vs Elite F’s.Raw and % with DFF%.

    There are Dangerous Fenick’s vs each bin.

    There is no Dangerous WOWY right now.

    Should be in a week or so.

    In samples these size the WoodMoney WOWY would be almost useless for projecting future performance.

    If both player played a full season its close depending on how much they played together and apart.

    Their “aways” from each are very small and will get way smaller when you break it into WoodWOWY.

    They won’t mean much.

  31. who says:

    Woodguy v2.0:
    who,

    I just think people are expecting the Jagr from 10 years ago and he’s just not that player anymore.
    I think he was riding the coat tails of guys like Barkov and company last year and he’s gonna be worse this year. Guys don’t improve at age 46.

    Let’s see if the data backs up that assertion (all data courtesy of the awesome puckiq.com)

    TOI together and apart:
    PlayersTOI
    Jaromir Jagr w Aleksander Barkov750.43
    Jaromir Jagr w/o Aleksander Barkov88.97
    Aleksander Barkov w/o Jaromir Jagr98.22

    CF% together and apart:
    PlayersCF%
    Jaromir Jagr w Aleksander Barkov56.7
    Jaromir Jagr w/o Aleksander Barkov50.6
    Aleksander Barkov w/o Jaromir Jagr39.7

    DFF% together and apart:
    PlayersDFF%
    Jaromir Jagr w Aleksander Barkov54.3
    Jaromir Jagr w/o Aleksander Barkov49.2
    Aleksander Barkov w/o Jaromir Jagr36.2

    To be fair to Barkov, who I like a lot, he was injured or coming off of injury for most of the year.

    Puckiq.com uses only games both players played in for WOWY to get a “true” WOWY.

    Conclusion:

    I think he was riding the coat tails of guys like Barkov and company last year and he’s gonna be worse this year. Guys don’t improve at age 46

    No sir.

    That is incorrect according to the results that happened on the ice.

    Sorry but we are never going to agree on this. I just don’t see these numbers defining the player and I guess you do.

    Just watching him play live last year he couldn’t keep up to the Florida forwards. He was the last one into the offensive zone and the last one to get back into his own zone. He had to noticeably cheat to stay in the play through the neutral zone.

  32. N64 says:

    who: Sorry but we are never going to agree on this

    Give it another decade and I’m sure you’ll agree on Jagr’s on ice value. 😉

  33. GMB3 says:

    who: Sorry but we are never going to agree on this. I just don’t see these numbers defining the player and I guess you do.

    Just watching him play live last year he couldn’t keep up to the Florida forwards. He was the last one into the offensive zone and the last one to get back into his own zone. He had to noticeably cheat to stay in the play through the neutral zone.

    Weird I watched him live twice a year ago and he looked pretty damn good

  34. GMB3 says:

    Maksimov, Safin, and Jones with assists so far tonight

  35. Woodguy v2.0 says:

    who: Sorry but we are never going to agree on this. I just don’t see these numbers defining the player and I guess you do.

    Just watching him play live last year he couldn’t keep up to the Florida forwards. He was the last one into the offensive zone and the last one to get back into his own zone. He had to noticeably cheat to stay in the play through the neutral zone.

    There is no question that Jagr is slow.

    When he wasn’t he was a legend.

    He’s 2nd in goals in the history of the league.

    That’s why most players are better with him, despite his speed.

    He’s really, really, really good at hockey.

    He’s second behind Gretzky in career NHL goals and he left the league for 4.5 very productive years in the KHL because it paid better.

    He was 10 years past when most players retire and he still scored 16-30-46 in 82 gp.

    I think that was also better than any RW on the Oilers’ roster last year who is still here this year, or the player he was traded for.

    Drai’s on the roster as a C.

    Also,

    Communication is all about language.

    I apologize if the language of hockey ratios doesn’t describe it as well to you as it does to me.

    It might as well be a foreign language at times and I forget that.

  36. leadfarmer says:

    There is so much variance in sample size under 100 min that I would not use it for anything other than saying “I would like to see a bigger sample size”.

    The name of the game now is speed speed speed. Jagr and his trolling motor doesnt do the trick although with Lucic Drai and Jagr they may play the boards and grind the crap out of the other team. Its Chia’s fault that there is a roster hole that has not been filled.

  37. Richard S.S. says:

    Jagr is revisiting old and slow, been there done that. Gryba is not so old, might be affected by rule changes but still slow. The Smurf makes the Roster or the underachiever does, should it matter – no. After Klefbom. Larsson. Russell, we have the other kids Benning and Nurse – all NHL Defenseman. What are Gryba and Auvutu, other than not good enough? Defense or Right Wing, which is more important?

  38. OriginalPouzar says:

    GMB3:
    Maksimov, Safin, and Jones with assists so far tonight

    Apparently Maksimov’s was a beauty on the PP.

    Sounds like Jones and Bear are running the PP for the Condors.

  39. Professor Q says:

    Woodguy v2.0: I’d buy a jersey.

    As would I. It’s the proper thing to do.

  40. Professor Q says:

    GMB3:
    Maksimov, Safin, and Jones with assists so far tonight

    Safin is gelling well with Veleno.

  41. GMB3 says:

    Professor Q: Safin is gelling well with Veleno.

    I think 3 points in 4 games. Good start to the year for the kid.

  42. who says:

    Woodguy v2.0: There is no question that Jagr is slow.

    When he wasn’t he was a legend.

    He’s 2nd in goals in the history of the league.

    That’s why most players are better with him, despite his speed.

    He’s really, really, really good at hockey.

    He’s second behind Gretzky in career NHL goals and he left the league for 4.5 very productive years in the KHL because it paid better.

    He was 10 years past when most players retire and he still scored 16-30-46 in 82 gp.

    I think that was also better than any RW on the Oilers’ roster last year who is still here this year, or the player he was traded for.

    Drai’s on the roster as a C.

    Also,

    Communication is all about language.

    I apologize if the language of hockey ratios doesn’t describe it as well to you as it does to me.

    It might as well be a foreign language at times and I forget that.

    You keep reciting things he did in the past when he was a great player. That player no longer exists. I don’t think he can match the numbers he put up last year and those were pretty pedestrian for a first line winger.
    People on this blog are crucifying Eberle, Lucic and Nuge for putting up those kind of numbers. At least they have a good chance of improving this year. Jagr does not and really offers nothing more than these boxcars to a team.

  43. deardylan says:

    “A MOONLIGHT MILE DOWN THE ROAD”

    Love these headlines that grab my attention (and also know it is Lowetide’s latest post!) In business terms we might call it an URP – Unique Reading Point!

    Look forward to the start of the season and lots of insightful posts and friendly banter in the comment sections.

  44. deardylan says:

    The Trade Guy,

    “This is the effort post for saying Jagr is the coolest.”

    Appreciate these playful comments The Trade Guy!

    Please keep distilling the posts that way and keep the fun a-flowing all season long.

  45. kgo says:

    I’d love to see Davidson put, then claimed on waivers. As tough as the Davi/Desh trade was, it was a nice gamble for the playoffs…Davi had little chance of even playing, and 3C was weak…great short term trade…here’s hoping we get Davi back, for a few months at least.

  46. N64 says:

    who: People on this blog are crucifying Eberle, Lucic and Nuge for putting up those kind of numbers. At least they have a good chance of improving this year. Jagr does not and really offers nothing more than these boxcars to a team

    WG. You really should backtrack on your plan to make Jagr a 6 million dollar man. Although if the bionics were legal…

  47. GMB3 says:

    who: You keep reciting things he did in the past when he was a great player. That player no longer exists. I don’t think he can match the numbers he put up last year and those were pretty pedestrian for a first line winger.
    People on this blog are crucifying Eberle, Lucic and Nuge for putting up those kind of numbers. At least they have a good chance of improving this year. Jagr does not and really offers nothing more than these boxcars to a team.

    The guy proposing Jagr as a possible addition is not one of the guys who crucified Eberle or Nuge. Give me a break dude

  48. who says:

    GMB3: The guy proposing Jagr as a possible addition is not one of the guys who crucified Eberle or Nuge. Give me a break dude

    Never said he was. Dude.
    Do you have an opinion on Jagr or are you just playing referee.

  49. kgo says:

    who: Never said he was. Dude.
    Do you have an opinion on Jagr or are you just playing referee.

    Haha nice call-out!

    I personally like jagr, but he would never fit in our system…don’t hold your breath folks

  50. Lowetide says:

    We seem to be having a respect issue this evening. It would be a shame to lose posting rights.

  51. Kinger_Oil.redux says:

    Woodguy v2.0: Is he being used in the right situation

    – Great post LT!

    – I’m curious why you do not think that the Oil could win the cup this year. I do not “think” they will win, but know that they are in the range of teams that could. You do not seem to believe that winning the Cup is a reasonable possibility for this team.

    P.S. – Half of Jagr’s goals last year came on the PP: I’m surprised you would advocate him, as we have at least 10 wingers capable of scoring 8 even strength goals

    – LT – I also disagree with you: I admire your stubborn, but Davidson “Is he being used in the right situation”? With a second opinion, at 26 it’s pretty clear he is who is is: not physical, not a great puck mover, not a big shot, not fast D, mediocore skater: he isn’t a starting NHL D, sorry.

    – LT says: ” I can’t really see the thinking from here on the defense” I guess what I see isn’t consensus. I see a D that has an emerging top-2 in Klef-Larsson. Nurse-Gryba as a bottom pair makes sense to me. Russel- Benning makes sense. And Sek. What would you suggest?

    – We signed the puny French fancy-stat darling, Fayne was a NHL D, Malone…: what else

    – The price for a D better than Klef-Larsson-Nurse-Benning is high. Heck many get angry at what we paid Russell. I wouldn’t pay 1st + 2 2nd’s for Harmonic, who would be what the 4rth or 5th best D when Sek gets back?

    – Whoever is on D when CmD is on the ice has a sweet gig. Our D will be better as a result.

    – Pittsburgh D, with Shultz, and no Letang is hot garbage and Stanley Cup Champions

  52. The Prototype JDî says:

    This will take your mind off of CZE Mullet.

    From fussy britches:

    Oilers interested in signing Kelly are trying to move Fayne with salary retained…..APG

  53. jfry says:

    if we’re just going to go with a “how i see him” instead of buying into wood’s numbers, i also think it’s important to note that jagr hasn’t played a “speed game” since y2k. his game drastically changed over the years that he was winning the scoring race. he’s been a possession player and half court player for 15+ years.

    correct, he’s not the jagr of 10 years ago, but he still contributes to positive corsi, points, pp, and is obviously a decent mentor.

    i don’t think he’s coming here but i don’t think that ignoring stats in favour of “saw him slow” is the way analyze this debate. woody brought in numbers to back up his point. in a tumultuous year in florida, jagr still almost put up 50 points. the year before, he had almost 70 points. two current oiler players are one year away from a 65 point season. if we’re hoping strome is going to bounce back, or sleppy is a top six winger. or drake is…i get the hope. jagr is pretty much the definition of “bankable”. if the money matched, he’s a really strong bet. you have to forget about age with him, just like you have to with YK in order to actually just look at the most current results.

    my .02

    nice post darcy.

    Woodguy v2.0:
    who,

    I just think people are expecting the Jagr from 10 years ago and he’s just not that player anymore.
    I think he was riding the coat tails of guys like Barkov and company last year and he’s gonna be worse this year. Guys don’t improve at age 46.

    Let’s see if the data backs up that assertion (all data courtesy of the awesome puckiq.com)

    TOI together and apart:
    PlayersTOI
    Jaromir Jagr w Aleksander Barkov750.43
    Jaromir Jagr w/o Aleksander Barkov88.97
    Aleksander Barkov w/o Jaromir Jagr98.22

    CF% together and apart:
    PlayersCF%
    Jaromir Jagr w Aleksander Barkov56.7
    Jaromir Jagr w/o Aleksander Barkov50.6
    Aleksander Barkov w/o Jaromir Jagr39.7

    DFF% together and apart:
    PlayersDFF%
    Jaromir Jagr w Aleksander Barkov54.3
    Jaromir Jagr w/o Aleksander Barkov49.2
    Aleksander Barkov w/o Jaromir Jagr36.2

    To be fair to Barkov, who I like a lot, he was injured or coming off of injury for most of the year.

    Puckiq.com uses only games both players played in for WOWY to get a “true” WOWY.

    Conclusion:

    I think he was riding the coat tails of guys like Barkov and company last year and he’s gonna be worse this year. Guys don’t improve at age 46

    No sir.

    That is incorrect according to the results that happened on the ice.

  54. OmJo says:

    If he gets sent down, please, please, please calm your tits.

    Fortunately my tits want Paajarvi in Bakersfield to start the season so they’ll be nice and calm if that happens.

    That’s sounds kinda wrong…

    Speaking of sounding kinda wrong…

    Chiarelli on the D: “I’m going to be relatively patient with this but we will see how it unfolds.”

    Well then.

  55. OmJo says:

    who: Sorry but we are never going to agree on this. I just don’t see these numbers defining the player and I guess you do.

    Just watching him play live last year he couldn’t keep up to the Florida forwards. He was the last one into the offensive zone and the last one to get back into his own zone. He had to noticeably cheat to stay in the play through the neutral zone.

    Considering that we’re looking at signing Kelly… I think Jagr would be the lesser of two evils.

    Yes I know Kelly is for the PK and Jagr doesn’t PK, but if you put Jagr on a line with Draisaitl and Lucic they don’t have to be the fastest line in the league because they’ll have the puck most of the time they’re on the ice.

  56. who says:

    jfry:
    if we’re just going to go with a “how i see him” instead of buying into wood’s numbers, i also think it’s important to note that jagr hasn’t played a “speed game” since y2k. his game drastically changed over the years that he was winning the scoring race. he’s been a possession player and half court player for 15+ years.

    correct, he’s not the jagr of 10 years ago, but he still contributes to positive corsi, points, pp, and is obviously a decent mentor.

    i don’t think he’s coming here but i don’t think that ignoring stats in favour of “saw him slow” is the way analyze this debate. woody brought in numbers to back up his point. in a tumultuous year in florida, jagr still almost put up 50 points. the year before, he had almost 70 points. two current oiler players are one year away from a 65 point season. if we’re hoping strome is going to bounce back, or sleppy is a top six winger. or drake is…i get the hope. jagr is pretty much the definition of “bankable”. if the money matched, he’s a really strong bet. you have to forget about age with him, just like you have to with YK in order to actually just look at the most current results.

    my .02

    nice post darcy.

    Half court player describes him perfectly. We already have 2 half court left wingers on our top two lines. Where do you see him fitting in on this team? If you play him with McDavid or Drai you are asking them to cover for 2 slow wingers.
    And I don’t see him being happy or all that useful in a bottom 6 role.

  57. OmJo says:

    The Prototype JDî:
    This will take your mind off of CZE Mullet.

    From fussy britches:


    Oilers interested in signing Kelly are trying to move Fayne with salary retained…..APG

    *Cue Michael Scott Nooooo GIF*

    Might as well just put Fayne on waivers and let him be a mentor in Bakersfield for the last year of his contract, and an emergy call-up incase our 2 top 4 RDs go down with injury. We will definitely not be having the same injury luck as last season and we aren’t crawling in RHD to replace Larsson or Benning in a worst case scenario. Do you want Russell on the top pairing and Gryba as 4D? I don’t.

    Unless we somehow upgrade Fayne in a trade, which seems highly unlikely if we’re retaining salary. Fayne and Khaira for Miller? I think LV has a few Khaira’s in their group. Fayne and Cagguila? Fayne and a pick?

  58. Lowetide says:

    Kinger Oil: I never said the Oilers couldn’t win the Cup this year. Have stated on several occasions they are in fact in a window to win. We disagree on Davidson, but he may have taken a step back in Montreal since leaving Edmonton. I would suggest acquiring Colin Miller.

  59. OriginalPouzar says:

    Very interested to see the lineup for tonight. I’m guessing it will look like what we’ve seen in practice the last few days with Drai as 1RW but who knows?

  60. treevojo says:

    OmJo: Considering that we’re looking at signing Kelly… I think Jagr would be the lesser of two evils.

    Yes I know Kelly is for the PK and Jagr doesn’t PK, but if you put Jagr on a line with Draisaitl and Lucic they don’t have to be the fastest line in the league because they’ll have the puck most of the time they’re on the ice.

    That lesser of two evils will want roughly 3 million more dollars.

  61. blainer says:

    Jagr is not the answer IMO. Probably great for jersey sales but that would be it for me.

    JP will need to go to the A to fix his game. He is reminding me a bit of Yak out there at times and we all know how that turned out.

    Send him down to get out those kinks it usually takes with young players and get him hungry to get back. His spot needs to be earned. It is a tough decision but it is the correct decision for both team and player.

  62. Woodguy v2.0 says:

    who,

    People on this blog are crucifying Eberle, Lucic and Nuge for putting up those kind of numbers. At least they have a good chance of improving this year. Jagr does not and really offers nothing more than these boxcars to a team.

    I didn’t do that.

    I did express disappointment in Lucic’s 5v5 points/60 and totals, but not his 5v4.

    5v5 pts/60 last year for the players you mentioned:

    Jagr – 1.76
    Eberle – 1.76 no longer here
    RNH – 1.50
    Lucic – 1.22

    We could used an old slow halfcourt guy if he helps win the GF% battle and puts up those kind of 5v5 pts/60

    Yammy would also make $3.5 or so and not $6 which is important

  63. OriginalPouzar says:

    The nice Maksimov assist from last night:

    https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=VYcexHRzJ8E&feature=youtu.be

  64. Woodguy v2.0 says:

    P.S. – Half of Jagr’s goals last year came on the PP: I’m surprised you would advocate him, as we have at least 10 wingers capable of scoring 8 even strength goals

    Don’t forget 25 5v5 assists too. Creating goals is important.

    Here’s Jagr 5v5/60 point production compared to the Oilers wingers from last year who are still here with whom he’d fight for a spot (not including Lucic, Drai, Kassian or Maroon as they are locks obv)

    Jagr – 1.76
    Strome – 1.58
    Puljujarvi 1.46
    Slepeshev – 1.35
    Cagguila 1.13
    Yamamoto – N/A

    That’s the reason I advocated for him.

    He’d be the best of the bunch concrete boots and all.

    EDM isn’t a fast team.

    Connor is uber-fast.

    Leon can be a beast, but especially with Lucic they don’t play a speed game.

    RNH can play with pace, but he’s not fast either.

    Jagr would look really good with 27-29 imo.

  65. OriginalPouzar says:

    Darcy, I know you are of the opinion that its all about money for Jagr and location isn’t a big factor – for example, if the Oil offered him 1 year at $3.75M you think he’d sign.

    Is that just your opinion or have you heard that from a legit source?

    I’ve always been of the opinion that location is more the issue than the money but that is clearly just my opinion.

  66. russ99 says:

    As far as the defense, what we have now is fine for 15-20 games, the only concern is injury. I suspect that Chiarelli wants Fayne either claimed on waivers or stashed in the AHL before adding another salary, and any acquired player’s contract would need to be accounted for next season or a 1 year deal – not to mention we’re just about at 50 contracts.

    Don’t expect a sudden move, more like see what we got first. The team that ends the season doesn’t have to be the team that begins the season.

    Unless the icecaps melt, Jagr isn’t coming to Edmonton.

    As for Jesse, sending him down to Bakersfield has a lot more implications on the player himself than any perceived prospect status. It would be a bad move and a poor mananaging of assets to send him down and all that means for the kid just to keep Yamamoto for 9 games.

    We’ve seen it time and time from our Euro kids. On the cusp of an NHL job, then sent to the AHL hinterlands to fend for themselves and then out of the organization.

    I hope this once the Oilers realize this. Puljujarvi has an NHL game even if the puck doesn’t go into the net.

  67. OriginalPouzar says:

    Sending Puljijarvi down to the AHL wouldn’t be a move to get Yamamoto his 9 games, it would be a move due to the fact that Jesse has had an up and down camp and looks like he could use more seasoning.

    Both Rantanen and Pastrnak (among many others) started their 2nd years in the AHL – not to mention Drai.

    This is not an unusual scenario and many a Europen top 10 drafted player has spent parts of their draft plus 2 seasons in the NHL and developed in to a material NHL player.

  68. Woodguy v2.0 says:

    OriginalPouzar:
    Darcy, I know you are of the opinion that its all about money for Jagr and location isn’t a big factor – for example, if the Oil offered him 1 year at $3.75M you think he’d sign.

    Is that just your opinion or have you heard that from a legit source?

    I’ve always been of the opinion that location is more the issue than the money but that is clearly just my opinion.

    He’d probably prefer the East Coast given his history, but he’s never mentioned weather or location in anything I’ve read.

    He talked about interest in playing with Hemsky once when Hemsky was still here.

    Based on what he has said in the past and recently, its all about the contract amount.

  69. who says:

    Woodguy v2.0:
    P.S. – Half of Jagr’s goals last year came on the PP: I’m surprised you would advocate him, as we have at least 10 wingers capable of scoring 8 even strength goals

    Don’t forget 25 5v5 assists too.Creating goals is important.

    Here’s Jagr 5v5/60 point production compared to the Oilers wingers from last year who are still here with whom he’d fight for a spot (not including Lucic, Drai, Kassian or Maroon as they are locks obv)

    Jagr – 1.76
    Strome – 1.58
    Puljujarvi 1.46
    Slepeshev – 1.35
    Cagguila 1.13
    Yamamoto – N/A

    That’s the reason I advocated for him.

    He’d be the best of the bunch concrete boots and all.

    EDM isn’t a fast team.

    Connor is uber-fast.

    Leon can be a beast, but especially with Lucic they don’t play a speed game.

    RNH can play with pace, but he’s not fast either.

    Jagr would look really good with 27-29 imo.

    See that’s the problem with just going by the numbers. Jagrs points per 60 were amassed playing with Barkov and Huber d’Eau. Most of the other guys on your list were shuttling between the bottom 6 and the press box all year.
    My point is that if you gave these young wingers a full time gig on Macdavids or Drai s wing they would produce just as well as Jagr did last year. And will probably be better this year.
    Do you not predict any regression in Jagrs game at the age of 46? Because that is the key number in this discussion.

  70. Woodguy v2.0 says:

    who,

    See that’s the problem with just going by the numbers. Jagrs points per 60 were amassed playing with Barkov and Huber d’Eau. Most of the other guys on your list were shuttling between the bottom 6 and the press box all year.

    Jagr overall 1.76/60 in 1122 minutes

    Jagr w/ Huberdeau (369min) 1.95/60 and 1.67/60 away from Huberdeau

    Jagr w/ Barkov (747min) 1.69/60 and 1.92/60 away from Barkov

    So when you said: “See that’s the problem with just going by the numbers. Jagrs points per 60 were amassed playing with Barkov and Huber d’Eau.” it turns out you were just hoping he was way worse away from those players and didn’t really know.

    Turns out he’s pretty good without them.

    Also,

    Cagguila 1.34pts/60 with 97 and 0.95 pts/60 away from 97

    Puljujarvi 2.86pts/60 with 97 and 0.88 pts/60 away from 97

    Sleppy 2.72pts/60 with 29 and 0.90 pts/60 away from 29.

    Those players were zoomed, but that’s ok, that’s what 97 and 29 are supposed to do, but I’d like to see them not that bad away from good C’s.

    I still take Jagr over them this year and I don’t think its close.

  71. godot10 says:

    Kinger_Oil.redux: – Great post LT!

    – Pittsburgh D, with Shultz, and no Letang is hot garbage and Stanley Cup Champions

    Pittsburgh D with Letang when it had Bylsma as coach wasted the prime years of Crosby’s and Malkin’s career.

    The roster and the D was much stronger under Bylsma than under Sullivan, but Sullivan is getting much better results with a worse roster and a worse defense.

  72. godot10 says:

    Woodguy v2.0:
    P.S. –
    Jagr would look really good with 27-29 imo.

    How is Draisaitl supposed to get the puck with possession into the offensive zone playing with those two guys? If the the puck is already in the offensive zone, that line is fine, but that line will never be able to get it there, or be able to dump it in and recover.

  73. who says:

    Woodguy v2.0:
    who,

    See that’s the problem with just going by the numbers. Jagrs points per 60 were amassed playing with Barkov and Huber d’Eau. Most of the other guys on your list were shuttling between the bottom 6 and the press box all year.

    Jagr overall 1.76/60 in 1122 minutes

    Jagr w/ Huberdeau (369min) 1.95/60 and1.67/60 away from Huberdeau

    Jagr w/ Barkov (747min) 1.69/60 and 1.92/60 away from Barkov

    So when you said: “See that’s the problem with just going by the numbers. Jagrs points per 60 were amassed playing with Barkov and Huber d’Eau.”it turns out you were just hoping he was way worse away from those players and didn’t really know.

    Turns out he’s pretty good without them.

    Also,

    Cagguila 1.34pts/60 with 97 and 0.95 pts/60 away from 97

    Puljujarvi 2.86pts/60 with 97 and 0.88 pts/60 away from 97

    Sleppy 2.72pts/60 with 29 and 0.90 pts/60 away from 29.

    Those players were zoomed, but that’s ok, that’s what 97 and 29 are supposed to do, but I’d like to see them not that bad away from good C’s.

    I still take Jagr over them this year and I don’t think its close.

    So he was a little poorer away from Huberdeau and a little better away from Barkov. Who was his center when it wasn’t Barkov? Probably Trochek, I’m sure you’ll tell me if I’m wrong.
    My point is he wasn’t playing with Letestu, Cagguila or DD, because those were the first options for most of the oilers young wingers

  74. Munny says:

    Woodguy v2.0: RNH can play with pace, but he’s not fast either.

    Nuge looks faster this year. Might be the Rogered Place ice improving, but I dunno, he looks damn quick.

    I’m not a big believer in eye-test “he lost a step” or “he looks quicker” statements. I think these assertions tend to be goal-seeking narrative fulfillment more than anything. I, at times desperately, wish we had stopwatch numbers for all the roster players from year-to-year.

    But damn Nuge looks quick to my eye this pre-season.

  75. Lowetide says:

    Please don’t misrepresent my opinions. If you are going to make a point with my opinion as a centerpiece, please site a previous post. That’s twice in two days where I’ve been credited with saying the Oilers can’t win the Stanley Cup this year. I didn’t say that, in fact said the opposite.

  76. Munny says:

    Woodguy v2.0:
    Munny,

    Also, I think it is only fair to post the TOI for the Dangerous F WOWY.

    There is TOI vs Elite F’s.Raw and % with DFF%.

    There are Dangerous Fenick’s vs each bin.

    There is no Dangerous WOWY right now.

    Should be in a week or so.

    If the sample sizes are terribly small, on a WO bin basis, then the numbers you’ve given WHO don’t make an argument. I don’t think you have a solid numbers argument against him.

  77. Munny says:

    Lowetide,

    After 10-12 years of reading you, I’d also say your opinions are your own, and while we’re all influenced by everything we read, we still come to our own conclusions–for whatever reasons, often myriad, Strange for someone to take credit otherwise, not to mention the possibility of influencing Vegas odds too… which are driven by betting.

  78. season not played says:

    Munny:
    Lowetide,

    ,Strange for someone to take credit otherwise, not to mention the possibility of influencing Vegas odds too… which are driven by betting.

    Some people have no sense of humour

  79. Woodguy v2.0 says:

    who: So he was a little poorer away from Huberdeau and a little better away from Barkov. Who was his center when it wasn’t Barkov? Probably Trochek, I’m sure you’ll tell me if I’m wrong.
    My point is he wasn’t playing with Letestu, Cagguila or DD, because those were the first options for most of the oilers young wingers

    I understand that players will score less with Letestu and Cagguila etc.

    What has kept this conversation going is that you keep stating things as being true that are easily checked and so far you’re 2/2 on things you stated actually not being true.

    If you wouldn’t state things as being true and then when I checked on them finding out they were false, then the conversation would have ended.

    As for how Jagr did with his various line mates:

    Here is every forward Jagr played at least 100 minutes with 5v5:

    With TOI With
    Aleksander Barkov 747.50
    Jonathan Huberdeau 369.38
    Jonathan Marchessault 316.97
    Vincent Trocheck 228.43
    Seth Griffith 137.68
    Jared McCann 110.13
    Jussi Jokinen 101.87
    Reilly Smith 60.30

    Here is how he scored with them:

    With PTS/60
    Aleksander Barkov 1.69
    Jonathan Huberdeau 1.95
    Jonathan Marchessault 1.14
    Vincent Trocheck 2.63
    Seth Griffith 2.61
    Jared McCann 0.54
    Jussi Jokinen 1.77
    Reilly Smith 1.00

    Did very well with Trocheck, Griffith and Jokinen, not as much with McCann and Smith.

    He’s still better than any RW on the Oilers today.

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