WHAT’S HE BUILDING IN THERE?

The Edmonton Oilers lost their final game of the preseason 3-2 to the stubbornly  effective Vancouver Canucks, running the final record to 6-2-0 for the Alberta club. In icing a fairly complete lineup, Todd McLellan got a good look at what his team will look like in all three disciplines this season. The report card suggests there’s work to do.

DEFENSE, LAST NIGHT

  • Matt Benning hasn’t yet settled in to the player he was a year ago, his play at the blue line that caused a turnover on the second VAN goal is the kind of thing that will cost him 5×4 time. He remains mobile and can pass or carry but his instincts seem off and he’s often caught in between right now. Might benefit from a trip down the depth  chart while also being the best available option.
  • Kris Russell had a solid preseason, looks very comfortable left hand side. Was part of the giveaway train last night but the veteran has been one of Edmonton’s best blue liners during preseason.
  • Eric Gryba was in no-man’s land a couple of times defensively and there were issues with the puck on his stick. That was made evident when he took a penalty after having a shot blocked by Sam Gagner mid-game. I like him as a 7D, fill in utility defensemen. As a regular there are going to be issues in my opinion.
  • Darnell Nurse seems to be bigger and faster this fall but there are defensive and recognition issues. The first goal against came when Nurse didn’t recognize danger behind the net (oncoming Canuck) and he never did make a play. Have to be more aware that close to the net and this is year three. He needs a more substantial partner than Gryba in my opinion.
  • Oscar Klefbom doesn’t seem to have the burst we’ve seen in the past, could be flu or foot but my guess is he isn’t 100 percent and that’s a giant concern.
  • Adam Larsson was defending a lot last night, something he’s good at but you’d prefer the puck heading in a better direction.
  • Cam Talbot played well, can’t say any of the goals were on him, the first two included defensive lapses leading to ridiculous chances. Need to tighten up in front of the goalie.
  • NaturalStatTrick
  • NHL.com

FORWARDS, LAST NIGHT

  • Ryan Nugent-Hopkins had one really good chance and five shot attempts so there was a story there. Nuge is a valuable player with and without the puck but he needs to post 5×5 offense.
  • Kailer Yamamoto continues to impress, he keeps his feet moving and gets the puck to very good places in the wink of an eye. I liked him on the power-play point, he has wonderful instincts. Vancouver paid more attention to him, thought the rookie handled it well. Should have ripped the puck on the late 10-on-1.
  • Drake Caggiula played his usual aggressive game, not many chances created from it but he was solid in his eight minutes. I think he might end up playing a lot on McDavid’s line.
  • Milan Lucic is faster this year, not sure we’ve seen him more effective at 5×5. That’s really the only question we have about him—but it’s important for him to deliver 5×5 offensive consistently.
  • Leon Draisaitl had a fantastic evening, his two goals were high skill and show there is chem between 29 and 97. I thought he’d play a lot on RW in August, less certain now. We know it works!
  • Connor McDavid was freewheeling early and Vancouver had no answer. Once the home team got the lead, they buttoned things down (although Edmonton got lots of chances and should really have cashed). At 5×5, the difference between McDavid on and off the ice is the Grand Canyon.
  • Patrick Maroon had some looks but the puck wasn’t bouncing for him last night. Maybe he’s saving goals for opening night this week.
  • Mark Letestu plays so much on special teams I wonder how much it impacts 5×5 usage. In the RE series, I bet he would lose 5×4 time to Ryan Strome and others. I do think that’s very possible during the year.
  • Ryan Strome had his best game, including a nice chance and good work in his own zone. The most encouraging game he’s played, took a slash on his hand and that’s something to keep in mind.
  • Jussi Jokinen had a quiet game to my eye, noticeable mostly for an unfortunate double-minor in the third period. I love that he’s on the team. Smart player.
  • Jujhar Khaira was very noticeable early, less so later on as lines shuffled a little. He has shown enough and then some to earn an opening night start.
  • Jesse Puljujarvi  played well in a checking role, his big body is such an advantage in gaining a coverage edge. I very much like his skill set.

CONNOR MCDAVID

A panel of NHL.com experts have chosen McDavid as the favorite for the Hart Trophy. Article is here. This isn’t a big news item and I know you’ve seen things like this over the last few weeks. I mention it as a reminder of what we are witnessing here: An amazing career rolling out in real time.

Many years ago I got a chance to see the Spruce Goose, Howard Hughes majestic contribution to the world. When you enter, there is a short video talking about the construction (and reasons for it), and for my tour there was also a short speech. The tour leader said something like “when you see this plane, the sheer size will amaze you. Take a long look at the entire plane, because about five minutes after you see it, you will have adapted to the scale.”

That’s exactly what happened! About 10 minutes after seeing it, the Spruce Goose didn’t look as impressive. I’d lost the awe and it had been  replaced by curiosity about its history and the race to get it completed. Don’t let your mind trick you about Connor McDavid, don’t adapt to scale! This is a very special player.

CHRIS KELLY

The penalty kill looked strong enough last night, my guess is Chris Kelly gets released from his PTO in the next 48 hours.

ANTON SLEPYSHEV

He was in fact slated to play last night, but flu apparently caught him. Probably means he’ll have to hit Bakersfield this weekend to play a few games. That may mean Jesse Puljujarvi gets to stay.

LAST NIGHT

News is still coming in this morning about last night’s events on and near Jasper Avenue. Thoughts with the injured officer and others involved and I hope you were able to land home and dry. Scary times we live in, hope we hear everyone involved is okay this morning.

WHAT’S HE BUILDING IN THERE?

The Oilers need a righty defenseman like Colin Miller. It matters because getting wins early is a key to getting into the playoffs and or winning the division. I like Matt Benning and am pleased with Kris Russell’s play, also pretty comfortable with the Klefbom-Larsson pairing if both are healthy. The third pair is a concern and we know Nurse-Benning was a solid third pairing one year ago.

Is there a Colin Miller trade in Edmonton’s future? The PK looked good last night for long periods, but the defense needs to tighten up. Maybe there’s an opportunity to address this area over the next few days. Game One counts two points in the standings and there is a clear need for help on the blue. This much is true.

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65 Responses to "WHAT’S HE BUILDING IN THERE?"

  1. OriginalPouzar says:

    That FF% sure doesn’t jive with the eye test of Benning’s game last night.

    One of the most material disappointments of camp so far has been Benning’s wobble. Not only has he not really “run with the opportunity” of increased minutes and responsibilities but his game seems to be very uneven at this point.

    Thankfully Russell is looking much more effective on the left side, however, unless Benning can step up and at least play at the level he showed for material parts of last year, this 2nd pairing will be a problem.

    To add to it, the 3rd pairing has also had an “uneven camp”. Nurse hasn’t really shown any progression at this point and Gryba looks more mistake prone than last year.

    Perhaps this is just camp – rust, timing, going through the motions, etc.?

    On the other hand, Franson, Collin Miller, etc. – they are looking more inviting and there will be some interesting names available over the next 48 hours.

  2. OriginalPouzar says:

    First paring, both Klef and Larsson, had issues last night. I’m going to think it was simply exhibition game issues as oppossed to anything physically wrong with Klefbom.

    I mean, if he was anything other than 100% would they really play him in an exhibition game – for, presumably, the sole reason of not worrying the fanbase? Seems unlikely to me.

  3. Jethro Tull says:

    To my eye, the D looked fine in it’s play. It was individual mistakes that cost us. Hoping they get tidied up. Sekera is a veteran calming influence. Can Miller provide that? Would have preferred Auvitu last night to Gryba. Like Gryba for puck separation battles against heavier teams. Actually wpuld have preferred Simpson over both.

  4. OriginalPouzar says:

    That first line was magnificent last night – sure, Maroon didn’t cash his opportunities but he’s proven that he can and will so, assuming he can continue to be at the right spot at the right time and make the simple plays to transport the puck, as he did last year, he is looking primed for a similar year.

    I know the numbers say there was no material difference in offence between 97/14 and 97/29 last year when you control for left winger (Lucic vs. Maroon), however, the eye test can’t be argued with either. 97 and 29 have sensational chemistry.

    I am still hoping they start on separate lines and are but together for momentum changes, energy and boosts.

  5. OriginalPouzar says:

    I thought Drake and Strome had strong games last night and I have hope that they are finding their legs and timing.

  6. OriginalPouzar says:

    Jethro Tull:
    To my eye, the D looked fine in it’s play. It was individual mistakes that cost us. Hoping they get tidied up. Sekera is a veteran calming influence. Can Miller provide that? Would have preferred Auvitu last night to Gryba. Like Gryba for puck separation battles against heavier teams. Actually wpuld have preferred Simpson over both.

    I don’t disagree, however, when individuals are asked to play more minutes with more responsibility than they’ve earned or proven capable (i.e Benning on the 2nd pair, Gryba as every day player), that is when the mistakes start to get made with more frequency.

    Benning has not earned the 2nd pairing job, its been gifted via injury and, unfortunately, he has yet to run with the opportunity.

    Good thing its only been exhibition – clean slate for Game 1 – Go Matty!

  7. jtblack says:

    “At 5×5, the difference between McDavid on and off the ice is the Grand Canyon” – Yup. Couldn’t have been more clear than last night.

    We know Hall was (is) a driver. How much did he drive RNH? RNH seems to be a shell of his Initial Offensive self.

    Nurse has me worried. Just not seeing a top 4 D man in him??

    I agree with LT and all the others who have said we need 1 more RHD. Don’t likenthe current 6. If injury strikes before Sekera comes back … Danger time.

    Can’t wait for Wed!

  8. jtblack says:

    OriginalPouzar,

    “however, when individuals are asked to play more minutes with more responsibility than they’ve earned or proven capable (i.e Benning on the 2nd pair, Gryba as every day player), that is when the mistakes start to get made with more frequency.” – +1

    That Top 6 has 3 Nhl D men. 2 very young D men (Nurse & Benning) and a #7 D man. Not good enough fora team with Cup aspirations

  9. OriginalPouzar says:

    I would say that Nurse and Benning are both NHL d-men, however, neither has earned a 2nd pairing job on merit. If we had a solid 2RD, I would feel fully comfortable with running Nurse/Benning as the 3rd pairing and Gryba as the 7D, as per last year.

    That one 2RD would serve to push 2 players down the depth chart and create more positions being filled by players that are capable of the roles.

  10. Woogie63 says:

    I sat right behind the Oiler’s bench last night ….Letestu spent a lot of time communication with Yama.

  11. Jethro Tull says:

    jtblack:
    OriginalPouzar,

    “however, when individuals are asked to play more minutes with more responsibility than they’ve earned or proven capable (i.e Benning on the 2nd pair, Gryba as every day player), that is when the mistakes start to get made with more frequency.” –+1

    That Top 6 has 3 Nhl D men. 2 very young D men (Nurse & Benning) and a #7 D man.Not good enough fora team with Cup aspirations

    The 2017 Pittsburgh Penguins cup winning D, featuring two time cup champion Justin Schultz says hi.

  12. CalVag says:

    Jethro Tull: The 2017 Pittsburgh Penguins cup winning D, featuring two time cup champion Justin Schultz says hi.

    Yeah, but Crosby and Malkin are standing behind them controlling their every move 😉

  13. fifthcartel says:

    Draisatil playing RW with 97 in the last preseason game is a little perplexing. McLellan says it’s about seeing what the other three lines can do, but realistically this is the same team as last year minus Eberle and Pouliot plus Strome and Jokinen and Yamamoto.

    The team struggled to tilt the ice in the right direction without 97 on the ice last season, and I doubt the additions of Strome/Jokinen/Yamamoto change that. I hope Draisaitl starts at center on his own line, because I think that’s the only chance of having secondary scoring behind McDavid.

  14. Woogie63 says:

    Jethro Tull: The 2017 Pittsburgh Penguins cup winning D, featuring two time cup champion Justin Schultz says hi.

    22 votes for the James Norris trophy, +18 minutes a night on 2 Stanley Cups champions makes Justin a legit top 4 dman in most people’s books.

    Glad we booed that bum out of town 🤣

  15. Woodguy v2.0 says:

    jtblack,

    We know Hall was (is) a driver. How much did he drive RNH? RNH seems to be a shell of his Initial Offensive self.

    As per puckiq from 2012-2016 5v5

    RNH w/ Hall
    TOI 1893min
    GF% 52.4
    DFF% 50.4

    RNH w/o Hall
    TOI 1238min
    GF% 42.6
    DFF% 43.4

    To RNH’s defense the roster of forwards past Hall and Eberle was pretty thin and he usually had tough comp, but you’d like to see much better than that.

  16. Lowetide says:

    Woogie63: 22 votes for the James Norris trophy, +18 minutes a night on 2 Stanley Cups champions makes Justin a legit top 4 dman in most people’s books.

    Glad we booed that bum out of town 🤣

    He needed a new town, I don’t think there’s any doubt. Edmonton changed his head coach basically every season and I remember the Penguins saying on acquisition they were going to bring him along slowly. Too much pressure and too many minutes at a young age. I’m thrilled for Schultz, he had a tough time in Edmonton because of the situation the team was in at that time.

  17. stush18 says:

    I know that TMac really wants to run nuge in the top six. I’m sure that’s why he’s shuffling up Leon, to find a way. Why don’t we try

    Maroon-mcdavid-cagguila
    Lucic-nuge-Leon
    JJ-strome-JP
    JJ-letestu-kass

    I think those lines could work. Leon takes the faceoffs.

  18. Jethro Tull says:

    Lowetide,

    I believe that the Oilers failure with Schultz had a greater impact than the failure with Yakupov.

    It would be glib to say that any one reason was the cause of that decade of darkness. Everything kind of fed into one another. Poor player evaluation led to poor drafting which fed into poor team evaluation which meant again drafting decent player for the wrong reasons. Poor player aquisition and then development and a poor on ice product. Poor executive staff and coaching staff choices. Overall, just really……poor everything.

  19. jtblack says:

    Woodguy v2.0,

    Thank you for that. Still paints a pretty clear picture. Good numbers with Hall and poor numbers without. I just don’t see RNH creating much anymore. He constantly seems out muscled. Not trying to be hard on RNH, just trying to be accurate in my assessment. He hasn’t won the possession battle in any metric the last couple years and if Leon is gonna be at RW1 part of the time, we need a better RNH.

  20. jtblack says:

    Woodguy v2.0,

    Favor. if you don’t mind what are Nuge’s numbers that last 2 years? or last year.

    thanks

  21. Lowetide says:

    Fayne on waivers,so that’s one more decision made. We are getting closer.

  22. OriginalPouzar says:

    Fayne of waivers for purposes of assignment to Bakersfield.

  23. OriginalPouzar says:

    Jethro Tull: The 2017 Pittsburgh Penguins cup winning D, featuring two time cup champion Justin Schultz says hi.

    The same Justin Shultz that had 50 points and was 10th in Norris voting?

    I believe that Shultz was also firmly in the 2nd pairing TOI in the playoffs and not playing above his capabilities.

  24. Glass says:

    What would get a Colin Miller trade done?

    Khaira 1-for-1 may do it, but I like Khaira too much. I’d almost rather trade Caggiula.

    Maybe Fayne with 50% retained +3rd round pick for Miller? They downgrade but get a pick? I’d feel much more comfortable if our D looked like:
    Klefbomb/Larsson
    Russel/Miller
    Nurse/Benning (who have been a good pair in the past)

    Also wanted to add, I like our RW depth. Kassian can play up the lineup if needed. Yamamoto, Puljujarvi and Slepyshev all have experience playing off-wing. Throw Strome in there, and you got a guy who can also center a line.

    Yamamoto is great, but I’d send him to junior after 9 games to continue to polish his game, gain confidence, have another year to grow and build strength/size. Suspect both he and Puljujarvi will be impact players next year, Puljujarvi earlier in my opinion (he is my pick for a player to really step up after the trade deadline).

  25. OriginalPouzar says:

    Lots of options to trade for Miller depending on what Vegas is looking for.

    We have a swarth of D-prospects that are in the range of 1-3 years away. Of course not all of them are going to make it but there is a good bet that one or two will so I think we can trade out of our area of strength (Jones, Bear, Paigin, Mantha, Lagesson, Berglund).

    I wouldn’t trade Jones for Miller but any of the other guys should be in play.

    Given our lack of forward prospects, I’d be remiss to trade Khaira but it depends on what Vegas is looking for.

    I would prefer something like Mantha and a 4th.

  26. Lowetide says:

    Re-watching thegame, Khaira got hurt on a Nurse pass up ice in the shift before the Leon goal at the end of period one. Khaira came back but looked less effective afterward. Something to monitor.

  27. Jethro Tull says:

    OriginalPouzar: The same Justin Shultz that had 50 points and was 10th in Norris voting?

    I believe that Shultz was also firmly in the 2nd pairing TOI in the playoffs and not playing above his capabilities.

    Ah, but that isn’t who he was when he was traded. And neither will the Edmonton players be after some experience. Everything is fluid. 2nd pairing in Edmonton was clearly above Schultz’s then abilities.

  28. jtblack says:

    Lowetide,

    i loved that McD pass to Cagg on that 2 on 1 … he brought it in front of Hutton, Hutton swiped at it, McD pulled it back and lay it over … Small play .. But as you said above, just another brilliant subtly in McDavid’s arsenal ..

  29. Kinger_Oil.redux says:

    – Great post LT!

    – So basically it’s down to Kelly or Pulji for last spot?

    – Sleppy on IR to start the season, when he’s ready, they send Kailer to Junior seems the playbook

    – If the sign Kelly, you don’t want pool-party in the press box IMO, so he goes down?

  30. Woodguy v2.0 says:

    jtblack:
    Woodguy v2.0,

    Favor. if you don’t mind what are Nuge’s numbers that last 2 years?or last year.

    thanks

    Do you want them with specific players or overall?

  31. jtblack says:

    Woodguy v2.0,

    Doesn’t matter. My assumption is that it doesn’t matter who he is playing with(outside of Hall), his numbers are not above saw off … Just curious what the numbers say …

  32. McSorley33 says:

    RNH ……painful

    No other way to say it…..

    If not for a draft lottery win a few years ago……wow.

    Last night, a couple of line rushes by RNH indicitave of his play…..self neutralizes his own offensive foreay by pulling up to side wall and turning the puck over.

    I know. I know it is just pre season.

    Gryba, Nurse and RNH just waiting to flick the switch in a few days.

  33. Woodguy v2.0 says:

    OriginalPouzar,

    Jethro Tull,

    Out of curiosity I dug pretty deep on Schultz since he went to PIT

    He was being heavily sheltered QoC wise after the trade at the deadline in Feb/16 3rd pair comp.

    He was still being heavily sheltered QoC wise last year (under 23% vs Elite F) until Letang went down. His QoC slid up a bit, but looking at the game sheets they still tried hard to shelter him.

    He finished off the year with 27% vs Elite Forwards last year:

    Here’s all the PIT D via TOI% vs Elite F:
    Player CTOI%
    Kris Letang 38
    Brian Dumoulin 37
    Trevor Daley 35
    Olli Maatta 35
    Justin Schultz 27
    Ian Cole 26

    They are handling him the way EDM should have. He’s very good offensively and a drag defensively. Hide him as much as you can.

    That wasn’t EDM’s MO though. Nope, trade Petry and throw Jultz to the wolves and watch the fans turn on him as he drowns.

    Man.

  34. OriginalPouzar says:

    Lots of options to trade for Miller depending on what Vegas is looking for.

    We have a swarth of D-prospects that are in the range of 1-3 years away. Of course not all of them are going to make it but there is a good bet that one or two will so I think we can trade out of our area of strength (Jones, Bear, Paigin, Mantha, Lagesson, Berglund).

    I wouldn’t trade Jones for Miller but any of the other guys should be in play.

    Given our lack of forward prospects, I’d be remiss to trade Khaira but it depends on what Vegas is looking for.

    I would prefer something like Mantha and a 4th.

    Kinger_Oil.redux:
    – Great post LT!

    – So basically it’s down to Kelly or Pulji for last spot?

    – Sleppy on IR to start the season, when he’s ready, they send Kailer to Junior seems the playbook

    – If the sign Kelly, you don’t want pool-party in the press box IMO, so he goes down?

    Sleppy is good to play – he was sick yesterday – coach implied he’ll be headed to Bakersfield for some conditioning, not IR.

    There is no reason to sign Chris Kelly so I will not consider that scenario in my roster/lineup thoughts.

    Given Slepy going to the AHL, until he’s ready for a recall, the decisions on JP and Kailer can be deferred and both should be on the roster – baring a trade/acquisition of a forward (which seems unlikely as any such acquisition should be made on the backend).

    The question is if JP makes it in to the opening night lineup and I think he may play over Jujhar at this point if Kharia is a bit banged up.

  35. Nuclear leak says:

    Yesse looked far better with the second line last night then Kailer did.

  36. Woodguy v2.0 says:

    jtblack:
    Woodguy v2.0,

    Doesn’t matter. My assumption is that it doesn’t matter who he is playing with(outside of Hall), his numbers are not above saw off … Just curious what the numbers say …

    Last year had one really interesting WOWY.

    RNH overall
    DFF% 47.8
    GF% 45.2

    RNH w/ Dmen – sorted by TOI together: DFF%
    Teammate DFF%
     Oscar Klefbom 49.2
     Adam Larsson 48.9
     Andrej Sekera 47.5
     Kris Russell 43.9
     Matt Benning 52.5
     Darnell Nurse 53.8
     Eric Gryba 50.1

    I think the Benning/Nurse/Gryba numbers are driven a lot by QoC, we’ll know soon when WoodMoney WOWY are working

    RNH w/ Dmen – sorted by TOI together: GF%
    Teammate GF%
     Oscar Klefbom 46.7
     Adam Larsson 54.2
     Andrej Sekera 40.0
     Kris Russell 27.8
     Matt Benning 52.6
     Darnell Nurse 50.0
     Eric Gryba 36.4

    Edit: Oops. I accidentally posted both “RNH without” and “RNH with” GF%’s. The “RNH without’s” have been removed.

  37. jtblack says:

    Woodguy v2.0,

    I know Benning at 2RD is probably just until Sekera is back … but we don’t want to use him improperly and set him back on confidence / development …

  38. Melvis says:

    That Woodguy!

    Not only the Larry David respect wood…but also the Philly cheesesteak.

    “You want that wid or widout?”

  39. Melvis says:

    Somewhere between Macs, Safari, wordpress and terrorists. Grrr…is the only polite way to put it.

  40. Frank the dog says:

    HUNTER: Please Put me down for 99 points. Strome<Eberle. Injury rearing Its ugly head. New slashing rule is good for us but can be worse If referees continue their American/big market bias. Particularly If Gary is trying to lure disenchanted NFL fans accross. No trade to fix the D.

    Thanks

  41. Jethro Tull says:

    Woodguy v2.0,

    Thanks, that’s some great usage by Sullivan. But if the Oil were playing the Pens and i was Todd, I’d tell McDavid or Drai to just look in Schultz’ direction if he thinks about going on the ice. In a lot of ways, having him is a bit like having a goon that only plays 5 mins a night (difference being is if there’s one thing Justin is good at, it’s skating.) He could ve exploited. Happy for him though. Talked with a family who boarded him once. They said if he had one problem, it was that he was too nice.

  42. GMB3 says:

    Woodguy v2.0:
    jtblack,

    We know Hall was (is) a driver. How much did he drive RNH? RNH seems to be a shell of his Initial Offensive self.

    As per puckiq from 2012-2016 5v5

    RNH w/ Hall
    TOI1893min
    GF% 52.4
    DFF%50.4

    RNH w/o Hall
    TOI 1238min
    GF% 42.6
    DFF% 43.4

    To RNH’s defense the roster of forwards past Hall and Eberle was pretty thin and he usually had tough comp, but you’d like to see much better than that.

    To my eye RNH is a great transporter and mover of the puck, but I think he needs another high end player with finishing ability. Plays the perimeter too much. I’d still keep him over Lucic though.

  43. Woodguy v2.0 says:

    jtblack:
    Woodguy v2.0,

    Doesn’t matter. My assumption is that it doesn’t matter who he is playing with(outside of Hall), his numbers are not above saw off … Just curious what the numbers say …

    Here’s every forward over 50min 5v5 TOI
    Teammate TOI w/ 93
     Jordan Eberle 625.7
     Milan Lucic 423.5
     Benoit Pouliot 331.6
     Zack Kassian 217.4
     Patrick Maroon 213.4
     Leon Draisaitl 82.9
     Drake Caggiula 60.6

    DFF% w/ 93
    Teammate DFF%
     Jordan Eberle 50.2
     Milan Lucic 49.0
     Benoit Pouliot 46.8
     Zack Kassian 46.9
     Patrick Maroon 53.0
     Leon Draisaitl 42.8
     Drake Caggiula 42.5

    GF% w/ 93
    Teammate GF%
     Jordan Eberle 50.0
     Milan Lucic 48.3
     Benoit Pouliot 58.8
     Zack Kassian 41.2
     Patrick Maroon 40.0
     Leon Draisaitl 50.0
     Drake Caggiula 25.0

  44. Lowetide says:

    GMB3: To my eye RNH is a great transporter and mover of the puck, but I think he needs another high end player with finishing ability. Plays the perimeter too much. I’d still keep him over Lucic though.

    I’d like to see what he can do as 3C with Jokinen and Puljujarvi. The soft parade may unlock some offense, and even with a young RW would be defensively responsible.

  45. Woodguy v2.0 says:

    Melvis:
    That Woodguy!

    Not only the Larry David respect wood…but also the Philly cheesesteak.

    “You want that wid or widout?”

    Tough to find a good Philly cheesesteak in EDM too!

  46. Woodguy v2.0 says:

    Edmonton Oilers‏Verified account @EdmontonOilers 2m2 minutes ago

    Replying to @EdmontonOilers
    The #Oilers have also assigned forward Jesse Puljujärvi to the Bakersfield @Condors.

  47. OriginalPouzar says:

    Puljijarvi has been assigned to Bakersfield.

  48. OriginalPouzar says:

    Hmmm, maybe Slepy will be staying on the roster? If not, this signals an acquisition does it not?

    My god it better not be Chris Kelly – especially prior to seeing who hits the waiver wire tomorrow.

    I’m hoping for Collin Miller for a non-roster player/pick.

  49. Woodguy v2.0 says:

    Some people expressed interest in Micah McCurdy’s NHL points prediction Sour Candy contest.

    Here’s the link and how to enter:

    http://hockeyviz.com/txt/predictionContest1718

    Deadline for entry is noon tomorrow EST.

  50. GMB3 says:

    Lowetide: I’d like to see what he can do as 3C with Jokinen and Puljujarvi. The soft parade may unlock some offense, and even with a young RW would be defensively responsible.

    I think if it was the Jokinen of 3 or 4 years ago that could be a really good line and a safe landing spot for JP, but to my eye Jokinen is pretty slow out there and I don’t know if he will move the needle.

  51. The Concept JDî says:

    Chris Johnston‏Verified account @reporterchris

    The #FlaPanthers have released Brandon Pirri and Harry Zolnierczyk from their PTO’s.

    Despite being a 0.5 PPG player for a while there, Pirri can’t seem to stick.

  52. jtblack says:

    Woodguy v2.0,

    I think this is a smart move. Pool Party didn;t look ready yet .. Drai started his 2nd year in the minors .. Even if JP spends the whole year there, this is the right thing for his development .. Now let’s hope he can get close to 1 ppg down there and gain some offensive confidence and improve his overall game

    Watching last night, JP seems to be thinking for a split second when he gets the puck and in the NHL that is suicide ..

  53. jtblack says:

    Owen Tippett sticks in Florida ..wonder if it’s a 9 game audition or maybe more … I know LT had him ranked very high for the draft

  54. Woodguy v2.0 says:

    jtblack:
    Woodguy v2.0,

    I think this is a smart move.Pool Party didn;t look ready yet .. Drai started his 2nd year in the minors .. Even if JP spends the whole year there, this is the right thing for his development .. Now let’s hope he can get close to 1 ppg down there and gain some offensive confidence and improve his overall game

    Watching last night, JP seems to be thinking for a split second when he gets the puck and in the NHL that is suicide ..

    My prediction is that Yamamoto goes down after 9 and JP comes up.

  55. rickithebear says:

    Woodguy V 2.0:

    What do we know about hall.

    High corsi for x,y resulting from speed
    Lower missed shot rates.
    Better shot60 rates.
    Very poor targeting.
    Higher closed shot %
    Brutally low open hole shot for %
    High % of 0% Corsi
    Minimal ca60 from easily saved and no rebound, fom high % of 0% chance corsi rates.

    This is the perfect player to show the god awful in accuracy of Dff%
    1. Dff60/cf60 is an opposition 0% chance dman measure
    2. Dfa is a measure of CA60 ( failed offence measure) + bf60 (0% Corsi dman measure)

    The statistic lies
    3. High Cf60 tels us Hall is great
    4. Very low missed rate
    5. High shot rate says he is very dangerous

    The truth
    6. Low missed rates with brutal targeting result in higher fo rates per pocession
    Poor face off teams do not want more fo. A very poor use of pocession
    7. Elite sh60 but high closed shot rates.
    Makes hisopen hole shots/corsi for rate brutally bad.
    8. Open cf60/cf60, He is one of the worst targeting forwards in the game

    The truest measure of a forward
    Taylor halll is an awful (0pen hole CF/ possession)/(open hole CA/ pocession
    fwds = CA60 + (((forwards OZ closed shot FO60) x (team OZ FO % w/o hall)) x (ca/opp dz pocession))

    Without my open closed hole theory.
    100% of player analysis is not accurate!

    Now hall is one of hiest scoring but least efficient open corsi pocession forwards in the game.

    Cup winning cores usually allways have:
    1. Top 10 hd save% goalie
    Talbot

    2. 3 + top 60 hd def dmen
    Larsson
    Sekera 2nd comp
    Benning
    An top 30 open shot/ca dman paired with a top 40 hd dman gets top 30 hd results.
    Russel # 1 open shot supression dman

    3. 5+ top 125 forwards 16g and 39 points
    Mcdavid
    Draisaitl
    RNH
    Lucic
    Maroon
    Jokinen
    Though i did not look at player groups as a cummulative sum of the player
    Mcdavid 30/16 = 1.875. 100/39 = 2.565; (2.565 + 1.875)/2 = 2.22 top 125
    Draisatl ((29/16) + (77/39))/2 = 1.90 top 125 forwards

    Hall ((20/16) +(52/39))/2 = 1.29 top 125 forwards
    Lucic 20/50 = 1.27 top 125 forwards

    I like top assign a dman,s balue relative to the save % average they establish for thier side.
    Though thier pair average can be greatly affected by a 2:3 or 3/3 poor dmeasure partner.

    Team hd is 7.5 to 13.5
    7.5 = .930
    10.5 = .916
    13.5 = .902

    .916 = 1.00
    .930 = 2.00
    .902 = 0.00 Dmen

    S. Weber = .935 = 2.36 hd dman
    Larsson = .932 = 2.14 hd dmen
    Klefbom = .900 = -.14 hd dmen
    Nurse = .894 = -.57 hd dmen
    These are the average means a golaie is performing around on each dman,s Side

    Trade ratios
    1 top 10 hd goalies: 3 top 60 hd
    1 top 10 hd goalie: 6 top 125 forwards
    1 top 40 hd dman: 2 top 125 forwards.

    Mact arranged talbot trafe
    For 2nd, 3rd not 6 top 125 forwards.

    Larson (2.14/1):(1.29/2)= 2.14:.645 = (2.14/.645):(.645/.645) = 3.31:1
    When chasing cup core larsson has 331% more core value than hall.
    Lucic and hall sre equal.
    Thou failed efficiency is reflected in even +/-

    You need to evaluate players and trades at this level.

    Hall itrade was brilliant!

    You have to prpoperly break down the proper analytic numbers to correct relative terms
    Hall not on ice but his brutaly easy saved shot affectinand teamf fo% and corsi / pocession a relative reflection of hall,,s failure.
    Plus minus is not an accurate measure?
    Bull shit!
    It is not assigned correctly.
    Staples approach was allways superior to most peoples work on here.

    But not asdigned completely correct.

    numbers must be created in prpoper terms (side of d pair)

  56. digger50 says:

    If Oilers see a need to sign Kelly then they should have just kept Hendricks around who would have done a better job in that role.

  57. VOR says:

    ricki,

    I am going to try to help you out. I would really like to see you get the respect you deserve.

    Unsubstantiated claims for new statistics carry no weight with any of those people you accuse of disrespecting you. Your latest version of a ricki stat, open and closed corsi, is a case in point. You need to prove there is such a phenomena as open and closed holes and once you have done that then you need to prove it has some statistical significance and then you need to prove it relates to corsi.

    You are going to find it hard to convince people this stat has any value whatsoever without hard evidence. This is because, and I think i can speak for every goalie reading you, we all think you are wrong.

    As a goalie who played 5 decades I know hundreds of goaltenders. That includes quite a number of pros. To a person we will all tell you that puck movement, traffic in front of the net, timing of the release, disguising the release, and a number of other factors determine how difficult it is for us to stop any one shot in isolation.

    Veteran snipers will tell you it isn’t how hard their shot is or that they can pick the corners that make them scorers. It is that they have more tricks than Phil Niekro.

    https://www.theplayerstribune.com/james-neal-predators-sniper/ .

    Given your open/closed dichotomy allows for none of this complexity it is probably not even describing anything real and certainly nothing predictive.

    Unless you can provide a detailed mathematical proof of your concept you really need to rethink the entire problem.

    It would also help if you lost some of the rhetorical tricks you use to say to your readers, “I am the all knowing stats God.” Your disrespect for DFF in this post, for example, is obnoxious. It is also wrong.

    It has been my experience that people will respect you if you have something interesting to say even if you are wrong or even if they disagree with you. However, their respect will evaporate if you combine an unreasonable certainty with obnoxious denigration of their own work.

    I hope that helps.

  58. BornInAGretzkyJersey says:

    VOR,

    Further to the aforementioned, with which I wholeheartedly agree, clear and concise sentences that form a beginning, middle and end of a thought or idea help to better convey your point.

    Point form notes from left field rife with spelling errors are nauseating to sort through, especially when they have no context.

  59. Lowetide says:

    jtblack:
    Owen Tippett sticks in Florida ..wonder if it’s a 9 game audition or maybe more … I know LT had him ranked very high for the draft

    Yes.I had him No. 3 and Yamamoto No. 11
    http://lowetide.ca/2017/06/23/here-comes-the-sun-2017-draft-edition/

  60. Spydyr says:

    ‘Cam Talbot played well,” a .824 save % say that is a lie.

  61. deardylan says:

    VOR and Born in a Gretzky Jersey

    Read your well written passages with these sentences that stood out:

    is obnoxious. It is also wrong
    unreasonable certainty with obnoxious denigration
    nauseating to sort through

    If your feel that these blog posts have been hurtful to you and others why not have a conversation directly with that person and/or with the blog owner and come up with a optimal solution?

  62. BornInAGretzkyJersey says:

    deardylan,

    Because I will never willingly opt to stifle constructive conversation.

    I want to understand Ricki. I do! But I cannot decipher his incoherent manner at times; which is a shame, as I feel like there is a grand treasure yet to be unearthed within his occasional missives, passages and rants. Seems to me that an accomplished writer among us in Vor has also felt similar compunctions.

  63. deardylan says:

    BornInAGretzkyJersey,

    Cool…glad you care.

    Just wonder if there is a way to connect and express your care in a one-on-one conversation? That could be the TSN turning point for others so that their writing style and brilliant ideas to shine bright in their blogposts. Or would be cool if they reached out to you.

    Anything too long or too many stats I scroll quickly–which is easy with two finger scroll on the Mac!

    Well hope everything works out for all involved as the season progresses as there are so many exciting posts and variety responses coming up and the regular season puck hasn’t even been dropped yet!

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