SECONDARY MODERN

In 2016-17, Edmonton finished No. 8 in 5×5 goals (165) and No. 9 in goals against (139). In 5×5 goal differential, the Oilers finished No. 6 with a 54.3 goals-for percentage. The key stat from one year ago pertains to the Oilers with Connor McDavid on and off the ice. According to Natural Stat Trick, Edmonton at 5×5 was 77-47 with McDavid on the ice, 89-93 without. That’s the nut right there. With McDavid on the ice, the Oilers are insane. Without? A little less than even money.

SATURDAY IN VANCOUVER

Based on the lines in practice today, and what we saw on Saturday on the left coast, the Oilers are going to run McDavid-Draisaitl on the same line to open the season. Using Corsi for 5×5, here’s what each line accomplished against the Canucks on the weekend:

  • McDavid Line: 97 with Draisaitl (13-7), Maroon (11-9) and McDavid was 14-11 overall
  • Nuge Line: 93 with Lucic (5-1), Yamamoto (3-2) and Nuge was 5-2 overall
  • Strome Line: 18 with Caggiula (8-3), Jokinen (7-3) and Strome was 9-5 overall
  • Letestu Line: 55 with Khaira (1-2), Puljujarvi (1-2) and Letestu was 1-2 overall
  • Source

This was Vancouver and several regulars weren’t in their lineup but it was a successful possession evening. The even-strength TOI went like this: McDavid (14:07); Nugent-Hopkins (10:01); Strome (8:41); Letestu (5:43). During the RE series, I put forward the idea that McDavid and Draisaitl would play together about 70 percent of the time. Reason? The goal differential with that line on the ice is enormous and gives the Oilers a massive advantage. The only way that can work is if the rest of the roster can hold sway and at least saw off the opposition.

Sounds like Kelly may hang around, perhaps to see if Kailer Yamamoto can hold off Anton Slepyshev for that RW job. Chiarelli also told Jason the team had no contact with the Jaromir Jagr camp and were not interested in Jarome Iginla at this time. A lot of balls in the air currently, but it sounds like the opening night roster has been finalized.

PROBABLE OPENING NIGHT ROSTER

It looks like defense is going to be the biggest issue, although it seems as though many really wanted Jaromir Jagr for this roster. Peter Chiarelli made clear he was going to give the young wingers a chance and that is exactly how things are breaking. No Jaromir Jagr, but perhaps James Neal later in the season. Long road.

OPENING NIGHT 2016-17

  • Milan Lucic—Connor McDavid—Jordan Eberle
  • Patrick Maroon—Leon Draisaitl—Jesse Puljujarvi
  • Benoit Pouliot—Ryan Nugent-Hopkins—Anton Slepyshev
  • Tyler Pitlick—Mark Letestu—Zack Kassian
  • Oscar Klefbom—Adam Larsson
  • Andrej Sekera—Kris Russell
  • Darnell Nurse—Brandon Davidson
  • Cam Talbot (Jonas Gustavsson)
  • Scratches: Mark Fayne, Anton Lander, Matt Benning
  • Injured: Matt Hendricks
  • Source

OPENING NIGHT 2015-16

  • L1: Benoit Pouliot—Ryan Nugent-Hopkins—Teddy Purcell
  • L2: Taylor Hall—Connor McDavid—Anton Slepyshev
  • L3: Lauri Korpikoski—Anton Lander —Nail Yakupov
  • L4: Rob Klinkhammer—Mark Letestu—Matt Hendricks
  • D1: Andrej Sekera—Mark Fayne
  • D2: Oscar Klefbom—Justin Schultz
  • D3: Griffin Reinhart—Eric Gryba
  • G1: Cam Talbot (Anders Nilsson)
  • Extras: Luke Gazdic, Andrew Ference, Brandon Davidson
  • Injured: Jordan Eberle, Dillon Simpson

OPENING NIGHT 2014-15

  • L1: Hall—Nuge—Eberle
  • L2: Pouliot—Draisaitl—Yakupov
  • L3: Perron—Arcobello—Purcell
  • L4: Hendricks—Gordon—Joensuu
  • D1: Nikitin—Fayne
  • D2: Ference—Petry
  • D3: Hunt—J. Schultz
  • G1: Scrivens (Fasth)

OPENING NIGHT 2013-14

  • L1: Smyth—Hall—Hemsky
  • L2: Perron—Arcobello—Eberle
  • L3: Joensuu—Gordon—Yakupov
  • L4: Gazdic—Acton—Mike Brown
  • D1: Ference—J. Schultz
  • D2: Smid—Petry
  • D3: N. Schultz—Belov
  • G1: Dubnyk (LaBarbera)

OPENING NIGHT 2012-13 (c-l-r)

  • L1: RNH-Hall-Eberle
  • L2: Gagner-Yakupov-Hemsky
  • L3: Horcoff-Smyth-Hartikainen
  • L4: Belanger-Eager-Petrell
  • D1: Smid-Petry
  • D2: Schultz-Schultz
  • D3: Whitney-Fistric
  • G1: Dubnyk, Khabibulin

OPENING NIGHT 2011-12 (c-l-r)

  • L1: Belanger-Smyth-Eberle
  • L2: Nuge-Hall-Hemsky
  • L3: Horcoff-Omark-Paajarvi
  • L4: Lander-Hordichuk-Jones
  • D1: Sutton-Gilbert
  • D2: Barker-Petry
  • D3: Smid-Peckham
  • G1: Dubnyk, Khabibulin

OPENING NIGHT 2010-11 (c-l-r)

  • L1: Gagner-Penner-Hemsky
  • L2: Horcoff-Hall-Eberle
  • L3: Cogliano-Paajarvi-Brule
  • L4: Fraser-Jones-MacIntyre
  • D1: Whitney-Foster
  • D2: Smid-Gilbert
  • D3: Peckham-Vandermeer
  • G1: Khabibulin, Dubnyk

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56 Responses to "SECONDARY MODERN"

  1. OriginalPouzar says:

    Even if Yamamoto does not hold on that RW spot, that is Slepyshev’s spot and we bring someone up fro Bakersfield for the 23rd roster spot.

    I don’t see a role for Chris Kelly on this team – certainty not one worthy of a contract.

    Chia did say he will evaluate the wingers in-season but would be quicker to make any moves on the back end – he acknowledges the hole left by Reggie and likely saw what we all did from Benning in the exhibition season.

  2. OriginalPouzar says:

    Holy crap, look at the 2010/11 and 2011//12 opening night rosters – those were, I dunno, are there words?

  3. Mustard Tiger says:

    Those old rosters, where’s the graphic content warning?

  4. The Concept JDî says:

    OriginalPouzar: are their words?

    Those rosters are Glassian:

    Kristen Odland‏Verified account @Kristen_Odland

    Tanner Glass on contract negotiations w/Flames: “It’s positive, all signs are pointing to getting something done.”

  5. Lowetide says:

    OriginalPouzar:
    I don’t see a role for Chris Kelly on this team – certainty not one worthy of a contract.

    Me either, but the fact he is in town and not flying home is a tell.

  6. Munny says:

    Sail on Gainesville Heartbreaker.

    Mucho condolences to Mudcrutch79, also.

  7. Bruce McCurdy says:

    Lowetide: Me either, but the fact he is in town and not flying home is a tell.

    Other than in its ability to make the nellies nervous, I don’t see Kelly’s continuing presence as a non-roster player being harmful. Gives them a centre for the 5th line at practice, and one more veteran hand who can do a little mentoring of young forwards on things like faceoffs, penalty killing, professionalism and more. Kinda like Matt Hendricks without the GP.

    On his Gregor Show interview, Chiarelli chose his words about Kelly very carefully (as usual), but it sure didn’t sound to me like a contract offer is imminent. Insurance policy, and let’s see what happens with the guys already under contract before any decisions of that nature get made. I’d be particularly surprised if such an offer were made while Yamamoto is still here as (effectively) the 49th contract.

    If in the meantime some other team steps up with a contract offer, oh well.

  8. Munny says:

    With Kelly has Chia brought football’s taxi squad to the world of hockey?

    Assuming Kelly is willing to do so, he can remain on a PTO indefinitely till the team needs him, whether by injury or desire for change, it appears. Or at least I can’t find anything in the CBA that says he can’t.

    Pretty damn handy. Maybe even left-handy.

  9. Thinker says:

    Laughed out loud at Belanger playing 1C opening night 2011.

  10. OriginalPouzar says:

    Bruce McCurdy: Other than in its ability to make the nellies nervous, I don’t see Kelly’s continuing presence as a non-roster player being harmful. Gives them a centre for the 5th line at practice, and one more veteran hand who can do a little mentoring of young forwards on things like faceoffs, penalty killing, professionalism and more. Kinda like Matt Hendricks without the GP.

    On his Gregor Show interview, Chiarelli chose his words about Kelly very carefully (as usual), but it sure didn’t sound to me like a contract offer is imminent. Insurance policy, and let’s see what happens with the guys already under contract before any decisions of that nature get made. I’d be particularly surprised if such an offer were made while Yamamoto is still here as (effectively) the 49th contract.

    If in the meantime some other team steps up with a contract offer, oh well.

    I think its unusual for him to be hanging around and practicing without a contract and, soon, without an official PTO. If he’s just hanging around, fine, but I just think its kind of odd.

    I agree with the rest – as he should be, Chiarelli is clearly more concerned about the defence and the hole on the 2nd pairing (which also creates a hole on the 3rd pairing).

    I’m a bit disappointed that it doesn’t sound like anything will be done prior to Wed but am somewhat optimistic given his acknowledgement of a potential issue.

    With that said, he also acknowledged after the playoffs that the defensive group wasn’t good enough to compete with the likes of the Ducks and then proceeded to bring back the same group with knowledge of the Sekera injury.

  11. OriginalPouzar says:

    Munny:
    With Kelly has Chia brought football’s taxi squad to the world of hockey?

    Assuming Kelly is willing to do so, he can remain on a PTO indefinitely till the team needs him, whether by injury or desire for change, it appears. Or at least I can’t find anything in the CBA that says he can’t.

    Pretty damn handy. Maybe even left-handy.

    Not quite – he needs to be officially released fro his PTO by the roster deadline tomorrow of 5 eastern.

    I don’t think that stops him from being on the ice with the team,etc. but likely stops him from getting his per diem, etc.

  12. The Concept JDî says:

    Thinker:
    Laughed out loud at Belanger playing 1C opening night 2011.

    What else can you do?

  13. Kinger_Oil.redux says:

    – Great post LT!

    – McL says: “Jesse needs more time. We expect Jesse, when he arrives and is ready to play, to play in our top nine,”

    – So with Strome/RNH/Joki/Maroon/Lucic/Drai/McD as locks, and Kailer, that’s 8 of 9 for now.

    – Pool in AHL, Sleppy getting back, Caggs, possibly Kassian. That’s 12 players in the mix internally for our top-9.

    – Based on these numbers, I would not be on board for a Jagr, or Jerome in there. At best they would be the same as our “fringe top-9ers” We’ve got enough “protection” in the top-9 already, elite top-9 talent IMO

    – Stanley Cup teams don’t have perfect fits in all lines, they just don’t

  14. GMB3 says:

    Kinger_Oil.redux:
    – Great post LT!

    – McL says: “Jesse needs more time. We expect Jesse, when he arrives and is ready to play, to play in our top nine,”

    – So with Strome/RNH/Joki/Maroon/Lucic/Drai/McD as locks, and Kailer, that’s 8 of 9 for now.

    – Pool in AHL, Sleppy getting back, Caggs, possibly Kassian.That’s 12 players in the mix internally for our top-9.

    – Based on these numbers, I would not be on board for a Jagr, or Jerome in there.At best they would be the same as our “fringe top-9ers” We’ve got enough “protection” in the top-9 already, elite top-9 talent IMO

    – Stanley Cup teams don’t have perfect fits in all lines, they just don’t

    I think at best our fringe top 9’s would produce as much as Jagr. That would exceed their RE’s.

  15. jtblack says:

    Whoa LT: Those past lineups. The horror. I peak at them through my fingers; like a Scary Movie.

    Centers to start the year in 2015:
    RNH – He did his best as a #1 pivot. Lets give him a pass.
    Draisatl – 18 yrs old and they threw him to the Wolves. Poor kid barely touched the puck. When the Oilers were 30 gms under .500 at the Halfway point they finally salvaged a career and sent him to Junior.
    Arcobello – As MacT once said. Some guys aren’t cut out for 5th line duty.
    Gordon – So so

    I can’t look at the other years, it’s too scary.

    This post has REMINDED me how far the Oilers have come.

  16. Kinger_Oil.redux says:

    GMB3: I think at best our fringe top 9’s would produce as much as Jagr. That would exceed their RE’s.

    .

    – Jagr scored 8 goals last year in 82 games at even strength.

    – He;s not better than anyone on our top-2 Power Play units

    – Pitlick in 31 games scored 8 goals, and no power play time.

    – I bet I’m right at the end of the year, and Sleppy/Kailer/Strome/Pulji, or whatever combo thereof, they score more than 8 goals per 82 games, and they outscore Jagr, sans power-play

    – Kassian scored 7 goals last year, and if he had been given the same PP time as Jagr, it would be hard to argue he wouldn’t have scored 16 goals

    – We don’t need Jagr, because our PP is good already, and 8 goals even strength is a very low barrier given our scoring talent in the top-9.

  17. stush18 says:

    I wouldn’t mind exercising our waiver rights to take a shot at a player or two.

    Kerry Rychel from TOR.
    Ryan Sproul from DET.
    Matt Read from PHI.
    Tomas Jurco from CHI.
    Ryan Murphy from MINN.

    I would take a look at all of them.

    This is the last year of Reads contract. I’m sure you could convince Phillip to do a trade for fayne.

  18. stush18 says:

    Kinger_Oil.redux,

    Good post kinger.

    I’m sure jagr adds some value towards possession numbers at even strength. He’s smart, and you can’t overload him. That’s one of the reasons he got so many assists. He’s drags people in and they think they have the puck.

    I would have preferred him to jokinen. I’m not sure there’s much difference in speed.

  19. Rake 2.0 says:

    The defence on those teams were sub hockey.

  20. Kmart99 says:

    I find it funny thinking that Lindros could still be in the league and wouldn’t be the oldest guy so long as Jagr keeps playing.

  21. BornInAGretzkyJersey says:

    OriginalPouzar,

    Thought ChiaPete addressed that when he “corrected” Gregor, saying that he wasn’t imminently required to release or sign Kelly.

  22. Professor Q says:

    Kmart99:
    I find it funny thinking that Lindros could still be in the league and wouldn’t be the oldest guy so long as Jagr keeps playing.

    I just watched Surfacing.

    Nasty stuff, but good on Kariya for being able or actually desiring to move on, despite obviously wanting to have had played for as long as he could. So much bad luck.

    For both players. It would have been a gift to have seen both of them play their full careers healthy and without the headshots and concussions (and what came after). The game would have been better for it.

    But obviously glad they didn’t try to play any more than they could and make things even worse. So, sadly, no playing at 44 for Lindros nor 42 for Kariya…but what an Age of Elderly Greatness we’d be in if they had, eh?

  23. BornInAGretzkyJersey says:

    stush18,

    Rychel and the two RHD would be interesting as looks, but really… what do they offer that we don’t already have bubbling under? Rychel has some skill and grit to his game, I suppose, but he can’t seem to crack an NHL roster with the CBJ nor TOR, so why would a change of scenery westward magically do it for him? Is he better than JK or Caggs? Malone?

    Curious, as I’ve had the same thoughts myself glancing over the waiver wire.

  24. Georges says:

    LT:

    The key stat from one year ago pertains to the Oilers with Connor McDavid on and off the ice. According to Natural Stat Trick, Edmonton at 5×5 was 77-47 with McDavid on the ice, 89-93 without. That’s the nut right there. With McDavid on the ice, the Oilers are insane. Without? A little less than even money.

    I’ve seen this argument made against the rest of the team. It’s not convincing and I’m surprised it hasn’t been knocked down because it’s easy to knock down.

    If you layer McDavid’s +30 on top of the rest of the team’s -4, you get a winning team. Some notable teams that have also done this:

    In 14-15, Toews went 53-31, the rest of the team went 97-96.

    In 13-14, Kopitar went 56-25, the rest of the team went 73-78.

    In 12-13, Toews went 43-15, the rest of the team went 62-53.

    In 11-12, Kopitar went 53-45, the rest of the team went 64-72.

    Crosby can’t outdistance himself as much from the rest of his team because of Malkin, a #1 playing a #2. There is no other team with two #1’s so saying you have to be like PIT is saying you have to have another CMD.

    Besides, the rest of the team can’t suck and have CMD post those results.

    In 15-16, CMD was 35-34, the rest of the team was 98-133… yuck!

    That’s what it means to have a terrible team. CMD posted GF% results that looked like Hall’s during the bad years. You layer CMD skill over a terrible team and all you do is break even.

    CMD didn’t get that much better from his first season. (The increase in offense was related to his increase in TOI.) But the rest of the team got insanely better.

    If the rest of the team breaks even, we have a formula for winning it all. If the rest of the team does better, so much the better. But all they have to do is keep it close to even. That’s their job. -4 is pretty close to even. You can see the precedents above of teams finding success with exactly this formula.

    Also, basic arithmetic tells us that with CMD outscoring opponents at the rate he does, his teammates are often in situations where they’re protecting the lead. Being able to break even in such situations tells us that they can hold the lead and win. That’s a good thing.

    What happens when the team doesn’t have the lead? According to NST, the Oilers were #1 on GF% and #4 on FF% when down 1 last season. That’s CMD and the whole rest of the team.

    Because CMD is the league points leader for the foreseeable future, the gap between him and his teammates, scoring wise, will always be larger than the gap we see with stars for other teams. That only tells us that CMD is really good, something we already knew. The fact that the rest of the team breaks even when defending leads and, together with CMD, exerts league-leading pressure when trailing tells us a lot about the rest of the team.

    And it’s not yeah but McDavid.

  25. Melvis says:

    Kinger_Oil.redux: – Jagr scored 8 goals last year in 82 games at even strength.

    – He;s not better than anyone on our top-2 Power Play units

    – Pitlick in 31 games scored 8 goals, and no power play time.

    – I bet I’m right at the end of the year, and Sleppy/Kailer/Strome/Pulji, or whatever combo thereof, they score more than 8 goals per 82 games, and they outscore Jagr, sans power-play

    – Kassian scored 7 goals last year, and if he had been given the same PP time as Jagr, it would be hard to argue he wouldn’t have scored 16 goals

    – We don’t need Jagr, because our PP is good already, and 8 goals even strength is a very low barrier given our scoring talent in the top-9.

    I haven’t checked, but Kassian must also be near the top in single season recalled goals. A couple of those calls were pretty dicey, iirc. I got jittery every time he popped one. I ended popping two.

  26. Kinger_Oil.redux says:

    Georges,

    – This is excellent.

    – The part about McD’s scoring strength: the team then gets ahead and the consequence it has on scoring effects for the rest of the roster for the game is so obvious, yet it’s never occured to me

    – Basically, Conner scores, and the rest of team plays with a lead and they are being out-chanced, like every other team that has the lead, except when Conner is on and scores more

    – LT and others won’t ever agree till it happens that McD + average rest of team = Cup, but I’m sold…

  27. Professor Q says:

    Melvis: I haven’t checked, but Kassian must also be near the top in single season recalled goals. A couple of those calls were pretty dicey, iirc. I got jittery every time he popped one. I ended popping two.

    It was around 5 or 6. Plus more in playoffs? I’m not sure where it’d be recorded.

  28. Jethro Tull says:

    Georges:
    LT:

    I’ve seen this argument made against the rest of the team. It’s not convincing and I’m surprised it hasn’t been knocked down because it’s easy to knock down.

    If you layer McDavid’s +30 on top of the rest of the team’s -4, you get a winning team. Some notable teams that have also done this:

    In 14-15, Toews went 53-31, the rest of the team went 97-96.

    In 13-14, Kopitar went 56-25, the rest of the team went 73-78.

    In 12-13, Toews went 43-15, the rest of the team went 62-53.

    In 11-12, Kopitar went 53-45, the rest of the team went 64-72.

    Crosby can’t outdistance himself as much from the rest of his team because of Malkin, a #1 playing a #2. There is no other team with two #1’s so saying you have to be like PIT is saying you have to have another CMD.

    Besides, the rest of the team can’t suck and have CMD post those results.

    In 15-16, CMD was 35-34, the rest of the team was 98-133… yuck!

    That’s what it means to have a terrible team. CMD posted GF% results that looked like Hall’s during the bad years. You layer CMD skill over a terrible team and all you do is break even.

    CMD didn’t get that much better from his first season. (The increase in offense was related to his increase in TOI.) But the rest of the team got insanely better.

    If the rest of the team breaks even, we have a formula for winning it all. If the rest of the team does better, so much the better. But all they have to do is keep it close to even. That’s their job. -4 is pretty close to even. You can see the precedents above of teams finding success with exactly this formula.

    Also, basic arithmetic tells us that with CMD outscoring opponents at the rate he does, his teammates are often in situations where they’re protecting the lead. Being able to break even in such situations tells us that they can hold the lead and win. That’s a good thing.

    What happens when the team doesn’t have the lead? According to NST, the Oilers were #1 on GF% and #4 on FF% when down 1 last season. That’s CMD and the whole rest of the team.

    Because CMD is the league points leader for the foreseeable future, the gap between him and his teammates, scoring wise, will always be larger than the gap we see with stars for other teams. That only tells us that CMD is really good, something we already knew. The fact that the rest of the team breaks even when defending leads and, together with CMD, exerts league-leading pressure when trailing tells us a lot about the rest of the team.

    And it’s not yeah but McDavid.

    Wordsworth. Shakespeare. Dickens. Tolstoy. Hunter S. Thompson. Snooki. And now ladies and gentlemen, i give you Georges.

    This post is a classic. It needs to be saved and rolled out at every Christmas or every time we’re too hard on ourselves. Hreat analysis with awesome comparisons. Thank you.

  29. OriginalPouzar says:

    stush18:
    I wouldn’t mind exercising our waiver rights to take a shot at a player or two.

    Kerry Rychel from TOR.
    Ryan Sproul from DET.
    Matt Read from PHI.
    Tomas Jurco from CHI.
    Ryan Murphy from MINN.

    I would take a look at all of them.

    This is the last year of Reads contract. I’m sure you could convince Phillip to do a trade for fayne.

    Ryan Sproul has definitely peaked my interest but not of the other (maybe Ryan Murphy but I don’t think so).

    We can’t waste a contract spot on a forward – we need to save that spot for a D acquisition – the RW won’t crater the season – the defence certainly has the potential to do so.

  30. Lowetide says:

    OriginalPouzar: Ryan Sproul has definitely peaked my interest but not of the other (maybe Ryan Murphy but I don’t think so).

    We can’t waste a contract spot on a forward – we need to save that spot for a D acquisition – the RW won’t crater the season – the defence certainly has the potential to do so.

    Sproul has had some injury issues otherwise I’d agree.

  31. OriginalPouzar says:

    stush18:
    Kinger_Oil.redux,

    Good post kinger.

    I’m sure jagr adds some value towards possession numbers at even strength. He’s smart, and you can’t overload him. That’s one of the reasons he got so many assists. He’s drags people in and they think they have the puck.

    I would have preferred him to jokinen. I’m not sure there’s much difference in speed.

    Jokinen has the ability to put up just as many points as Jagr and actually outscoring him isn’t an unreasonable proposition – plus Jokinen is versatile, wins faceoffs and kills penalties.

    Jokinen is the better fit on this Oiler team, in my opinion.

  32. The Trade Guy says:

    Good lord LT. Black out those old lineups. My children are playing right behind me!

  33. Lowetide says:

    If the rest of the team breaks even, we have a formula for winning it all.

    I would say the Oilers COULD win it all with that formula, but you’d want to improve your chances by also winning the game when the player is off the ice.

  34. OriginalPouzar says:

    BornInAGretzkyJersey:
    OriginalPouzar,

    Thought ChiaPete addressed that when he “corrected” Gregor, saying that he wasn’t imminently required to release or sign Kelly.

    That’s not what he said, or at least not what I understood – I took Chia’s statement to mean that we don’t have to make any decisions on the player tomorrow – he can still be around the team and we still have 23 roster players. We can evaluate for a bit and see if we want/need to sign him after an evaluation period.

  35. Lowetide says:

    The Trade Guy:
    Good lord LT. Black out those old lineups. My children are playing right behind me!

    Haha. They are kind of a ‘scared straight’ group.

  36. Lowetide says:

    OriginalPouzar: That’s not what he said, or at least not what I understood – I took Chia’s statement to mean that we don’t have to make any decisions on the player tomorrow – he can still be around the team and we still have 23 roster players.We can evaluate for a bit and see if we want/need to sign him after an evaluation period.

    This was also my understanding.

  37. SayItAin'tSo, Gretz, SayItAin'tSo! says:

    Georges,

    This sets the context, thanks for this.

    Lowetide,

    Agreed and if that’s the case the team is more Pittsburgh than Chicago/L.A.

    Either way this is incredible company

  38. Kinger_Oil.redux says:

    OriginalPouzar: Jokinen has the ability to put up just as many points as Jagr and actually outscoring him isn’t an unreasonable proposition – plus Jokinen is versatile, wins faceoffs and kills penalties.

    Jokinen is the better fit on this Oiler team, in my opinion.

    – Plus he is 106 years younger, approx.

  39. Munny says:

    OriginalPouzar: Not quite – he needs to be officially released fro his PTO by the roster deadline tomorrow of 5 eastern.

    I don’t think that stops him from being on the ice with the team,etc. but likely stops him from getting his per diem, etc.

    Funny thing is, I can’t find any official source that says PTOs are only for pre-season.

    That said the CBA seems similar to the US Constitution, the meat of the Law is in League memos… akin to Executive Orders, lol.

    But typically, IIRC, mid-season PTOs are issued by a team’s AHL affiliate.

    Is this because of 0 contracts, waivers? Who TF knows? Well, Bettman does… presumably.

  40. Georges says:

    Lowetide: I would say the Oilers COULD win it all with that formula, but you’d want to improve your chances by also winning the game when the player is off the ice.

    The margins are slim. Here’s what PIT did in the playoffs according to NST:

    As a team, 50-44.

    With Crosby, 18-17.

    With Malkin, 15-10.

    So Malkin got the slight winning margin. The rest of the team (including Crosby) broke even.

    I don’t know what you picture when you say winning the game. Over the course of one season, -4 and +4 are super close to even. Maybe the psychological distance is greater than the statistical distance.

  41. BornInAGretzkyJersey says:

    OriginalPouzar,

    Did a quick transcription, I still think PC inferred the same thing as I did earlier. He’s here on a PTO, they don’t have to offer him a contract until they want to, and he doesn’t count against the 50-man limit in the meantime.

    Perhaps LT or another can elucidate further.

    JG
    Chris Kelly, here on a PTO. The Oilers have to make one more roster move before tomorrow, three o’clock Edmonton time, you currently have 49 contracts if we count Kailer Yamammoto. If my calculations are correct. Does the number of contracts make it more difficult to sign Chris Kelly, what’s your thinking on Chris Kelly at this point?

    PC
    We actually don’t have to do anything before the deadline tomorrow, just to correct you, Jason. We have 23, so, but I get your question… what do we do with Chris Kelly? First, yes, 50 contracts plays into it a little bit. But there are ways throughout the year to get rid of a contract here or there… We don’t have to make a decision tomorrow, I’ve had a couple of frank discussions with Chris, and we’ll let this play out a little longer… Roster wise, we’re not in a position to make a decision with him just yet.

    JG
    So he could technically still practice with your team, is that allowed, or no?

    PC
    Yes, that’s allowed.

    Source:
    https://s3.amazonaws.com/the-jason-gregor-show-website/2017+OCT/GregorChiaOct2.mp3

  42. stush18 says:

    BornInAGretzkyJersey:
    stush18,

    Rychel and the two RHD would be interesting as looks, but really… what do they offer that we don’t already have bubbling under?Rychel has some skill and grit to his game, I suppose, but he can’t seem to crack an NHL roster with the CBJ nor TOR, so why would a change of scenery westward magically do it for him?Is he better than JK or Caggs?Malone?

    Curious, as I’ve had the same thoughts myself glancing over the waiver wire.

    I think a team low on forward prospects should be willing to grab rychel.

    Just depends on how you think the rest of the team feels. Not sure if there are any connections between players on the team and rychel. He’s def a good prospect though.

    Sproul has been a fave of mine for a while.

  43. jtblack says:

    Georges,

    Brilliant !!

  44. Chachi says:

    Georges:
    LT:

    I’ve seen this argument made against the rest of the team. It’s not convincing and I’m surprised it hasn’t been knocked down because it’s easy to knock down.

    If you layer McDavid’s +30 on top of the rest of the team’s -4, you get a winning team. Some notable teams that have also done this:

    In 14-15, Toews went 53-31, the rest of the team went 97-96.

    In 13-14, Kopitar went 56-25, the rest of the team went 73-78.

    In 12-13, Toews went 43-15, the rest of the team went 62-53.

    In 11-12, Kopitar went 53-45, the rest of the team went 64-72.

    Crosby can’t outdistance himself as much from the rest of his team because of Malkin, a #1 playing a #2. There is no other team with two #1’s so saying you have to be like PIT is saying you have to have another CMD.

    Besides, the rest of the team can’t suck and have CMD post those results.

    In 15-16, CMD was 35-34, the rest of the team was 98-133… yuck!

    That’s what it means to have a terrible team. CMD posted GF% results that looked like Hall’s during the bad years. You layer CMD skill over a terrible team and all you do is break even.

    CMD didn’t get that much better from his first season. (The increase in offense was related to his increase in TOI.) But the rest of the team got insanely better.

    If the rest of the team breaks even, we have a formula for winning it all. If the rest of the team does better, so much the better. But all they have to do is keep it close to even. That’s their job. -4 is pretty close to even. You can see the precedents above of teams finding success with exactly this formula.

    Also, basic arithmetic tells us that with CMD outscoring opponents at the rate he does, his teammates are often in situations where they’re protecting the lead. Being able to break even in such situations tells us that they can hold the lead and win. That’s a good thing.

    What happens when the team doesn’t have the lead? According to NST, the Oilers were #1 on GF% and #4 on FF% when down 1 last season. That’s CMD and the whole rest of the team.

    Because CMD is the league points leader for the foreseeable future, the gap between him and his teammates, scoring wise, will always be larger than the gap we see with stars for other teams. That only tells us that CMD is really good, something we already knew. The fact that the rest of the team breaks even when defending leads and, together with CMD, exerts league-leading pressure when trailing tells us a lot about the rest of the team.

    And it’s not yeah but McDavid.

    Sure, this seems logical and was written clearly and persuasively. Almost impossible to argue with you. Consider this though; if the Oilers win this way they will not have won the way I wanted them to win (Tay Tay and every free agent the Oilers didn’t sign that I wanted them to sign the last two years and oh yeah, no stinky Lucics!) and somehow that is all that matters anymore. Winning doesn’t matter. Pretty hard to defeat that with your logic and facts and silky smooth persuasion.

  45. stush18 says:

    OriginalPouzar: Georges

    I’m not so sure, but I doubt the difference is huge.

    I’m think jagr-nuge-JP would have been a nice line

  46. deardylan says:

    Wonder what would be the best opening night lineup if you took all the players from 2010-2017?

    L1: Hall-McDavid-Dr.Drai
    L2: Lucic-Nuge-Eberle
    L3: Maroon-Smyth-Hemsky
    L4: Cogliano-Hendricks-Kassian
    D1: Klefbom-Larsson
    D2: Sekera-Petry
    D3: Nurse-Russell
    G1: Talbot, Dubnyk

    ??

  47. GMB3 says:

    deardylan:
    Wonder what would be the best opening night lineup if you took all the players from 2010-2017?

    L1: Hall-McDavid-Dr.Drai
    L2: Lucic-Nuge-Eberle
    L3: Maroon-Smyth-Hemsky
    L4: Cogliano-Hendricks-Kassian
    D1: Klefbom-Larsson
    D2: Sekera-Petry
    D3: Nurse-Russell
    G1: Talbot,
    Smyth wasn’t a centre, and Hendricks wouldn’t be close to making that team

    ??

  48. deardylan says:

    GMB3,

    Yeah good point. I moved Smyth to C based on lineup above. (Didn’t notice it was different arrangement than the newer ones)

    And I picked Hendricks (not just for his points but for his style of play in his prime) See this old Lowetide post! http://lowetide.ca/2016/08/28/re-16-17-matt-hendricks-run-runaway/

    What would be your lineup mix?

  49. OriginalPouzar says:

    Rosters need to be set by 3pm mountain today.

    I don’t beleive we will see any movement on the Oilers front (i.e. d-man acquisition) but Chiarelli was express yesterday that he acknowledges the hole left by the Sekera injury and will be “watching closely”.

  50. Jaxon says:

    Sproul is an interesting prospect. He’s 6’4″, 211lbs. 24 years old.

    His draft+2 season was spectacular. Of Canadian Junior players his NHLe is among the top of active NHLers.

    Canadian Junior League Draft+2 NHLe
    RYAN ELLIS OHL 45.69
    P.K. SUBBAN OHL 35.61
    *RYAN SPROUL OHL 34.64*
    ALEX PIETRANGELO OHL 30.44
    *ANDREJ SEKERA OHL 28.30*
    *COLIN MILLER OHL 26.73*
    *DARNELL NURSE OHL 24.05*
    TYSON BARRIE WHL 23.78
    TRAVIS HAMONIC WHL 23.76
    *RYAN MURPHY OHL 23.32*
    *ETHAN BEAR WHL 23.13*
    MADISON BOWEY WHL 22.90
    DAMON SEVERSON WHL 21.10
    JARED SPURGEON WHL 20.91
    KYLE WOOD OHL 20.88
    MICHAEL STONE WHL 20.86
    MATT DUMBA WHL 20.44
    JASON DEMERS QMJHL 20.37
    *CODY FRANSON WHL 19.14*
    JARED COWEN WHL 18.32
    FRANK CORRADO OHL 17.11
    MARC STAAL OHL 16.83
    SHEA WEBER WHL 16.50
    BRANDON DAVIDSON WHL 15.99
    ALEX PETROVIC WHL 15.63
    MARTIN MARINCIN WHL 15.27
    MARK PYSYK WHL 14.76
    CONNOR MURPHY OHL 14.31
    MARTIN GERNAT WHL 12.51
    AARON IRVING WHL 12.30
    JOHNNY BOYCHUK WHL 11.78
    DAVID MUSIL WHL 11.07
    *BEN BETKER WHL 10.72*
    GRIFFIN REINHART WHL 10.33

    Great company at 35pts. He’s been decent in the AHL, too. If someone can tap his potential they’ll have a steal on their hands. If he falls to the Oilers, I think they should grab him.

  51. OriginalPouzar says:

    Yes, I think he might be a worthwhile claim if Chiarelli doesn’t think he can find a more proven option at 2RD prior to tomorrow night.

    I have no issue either sending Slepy down for a show stint to get up to game speed and going with 13F/8D to start the year or exposing Auvitu to waivers and sending him down until an injury hits or there is another need for a d-man change.

    It doesn’t fully cover the 2RD hole but creates more of a competition on the right side and for the 6D lineup spot.

  52. Jaxon says:

    OriginalPouzar,

    Sproul definitely won’t help the biggest need of a #2 RHD, but he could be a future solution that is about as close to ready as anyone out there. He could move into the #6-7 slot and play alongside Nurse. He got into 27 games last year in Detroit, so he can sit in the press box and push/replace Gryba.

    There are definitely issues, but I think the upside is good enough (big, right-handed, offensive, with a booming shot, and good on the PP) that he’s a smart risk. From Dobber Prospects:

    “August 2017 – Last season Sproul was able to get his feet wet at the NHL level. He tallied seven points and had a minus-eight rating in 27 games but often found himself to be a healthy scratch for many games. On July 24th Sproul began skating again after having surgery to repair his ACL that he tore in March, but it is unclear whether or not the young defender will be ready for Detroit’s season opener in October. He has the potential to earn a full time spot on the Red Wings this season but will be in tough after the team signed veteran defenseman Trevor Daley and depth defenseman Luke Witkowski, not to mention Nick Jensen looking to have claimed a spot on the team. Although there was deficiencies in his game last season, Sproul is a right handed defenseman with offensive upside, something that all teams covet. In order to be sent down to Grand Rapids this season, the Red Wings would have to run the risk of losing the young defender on waivers. Although he didn’t make much of a fantasy impact last season, Sproul might have the greatest chance of any Detroit prospect of making an impact on the Red Wing’s roster this season and for that reason he is at the top of the Detroit prospects fantasy rankings. With a number of talented defensemen making their way up Detroit’s pipeline, Sproul needs to cement himself as an NHL regular soon or risk being passed on the depth chart. Jameson Ewasiuk

    September 2016 – A crucial season developmental wise for the 6-4 rearguard, this may be the make or break year for Sproul, who finds himself heading into Red Wings training camp with a new two-year “show me” contract. The former second round pick will be in stiff competition with Grand Rapids teammates Xavier Ouellet and Nick Jensen for a spot on the Red Wings blue line this fall and with contract negotiations out of the way, he can focus on showcasing his heavy shot and quick puck moving skills.This is Sproul’s first year of being waiver-eligible, and if sent down at any part of the season it will be unlikely he’ll pass by all 29 teams without any interest. Joseph Highgate”

  53. anjinsan says:

    Barzal — starting season as 2nd line C
    Carlo — starting season as 1st pairing RD
    Schultz — starting season as 2nd pairing RD, with 2 cups
    Yakupov — starting season as 1st line LW (I still believe in this player and wish Krueger had not been fired)

    Reinhart — starting season not in the Vegas, repeat: Vegas, line-up.

    Lots of folks repeat that Ericksson-Ek was the Oilers’ choice, but noone expected Barzal to drop.
    When Hall was traded for Larsson Eberle could and should have been traded for Gudbranson.

  54. Jaxon says:

    Interesting players around the league that may not be playing where they’d like to:

    Franson on PTO in Chicago. I think he’s currently #7D, so he may choose to sign elsewhere if someone shows interest:
    Keith-Murphy
    Forsling-Seabrook
    Kempny-Rutta
    Franson

    Sproul waived in DET behind, and Green in his final year (deadline rental or sooner?)
    Dekeyser-Daley
    Ericsson-Green
    Ouellet-Jensen

    Those are solid players that Sproul is stuck behind on the right side.

    Colin Miller has been mentioned but I don’t see them to eager to part ways with him. It would have to be a solid hockey trade, which I’m not sure the Oilers should or would do. He may be their top RHD. Theodore is good but inexperienced and playing on his off-side:
    McNabb-Theodore
    Schmidt-Miller
    Garrison-Sbisa

    Magnus Paajarvi may end up getting sent down. STL forwards currently look like this:

    Schwartz-Stastny-Tarasenko
    Sobotka-Schenn-Jaskin
    Barbashev-Megan-Thompson
    Upshall (recently signed in Paajarvi’s spot)-Brodziak-Throburn

    And that’s with Berglund, Steen, Fabbri and Sanford out. Those injuries may be the only reason he isn’t waived. YET.

    Paajarvi has pretty decent numbers. His 8 shots and 1.1 primary points / 5-on-5 minute are solid. He’s a big, fast, high draft pick, Finnish/Swede just like Puljujarvi. Can be used on the PK. Nice depth option.

    Alex Chiasson is currently playing on the 4th line in Washington on a PTO. If he saw a chance to play higher in the lineup somewhere else, he may sign. Not sure Edmonton would be the right place for him. Although, seeing how Maroon turned his career around, maybe Chiasson gambles on an injury to Maroon or Lucic giving him a shot in the future.

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