AMERICAN GIRL

We are past the warm days of summer and edging nearer to the gales of November. In the golden days of “Oilers as tragedy”, calling up images from popular culture that reflected the mood of Oilers nation was easy. It’s a breeze to pluck “I’ve had bad dreams, too many times, to think that they don’t mean much anymore” after a 2-7-1 month where the sun goes down before the five o’clock whistle. Last year it became necessary to lighten the mood with “walking on sunshine” and “some kind of wonderful” references. This season? Gotta keep those good vibrations happening.

OILERS IN OCTOBER

  • Oilers in October 2015: 4-8-0, goal differential -7
  • Oilers in October 2016: 7-2-0, goal differential +10

WHAT TO EXPECT FROM OCTOBER

  • At home to: Calgary (Expected: 1-0-0) (Actual 0-0-0)
  • On the road to: Vancouver  (Expected: 1-0-0) (Actual: 0-0-0)
  • At home to: Winnipeg, Ottawa, Carolina (Expected 1-1-1) (Actual: 0-0-0)
  • On the road to: Chicago, Philadelphia, Pittsburgh (Expected 1-1-1) (Actual 0-0-0)
  • At home to: Dallas, Washington (Expected 1-1-0) (Actual 0-0-0)
  • Overall expected result: 5-3-2, 12 points in  10 games 
  • Current results: 0-0-0

OILERS PRESEASON SCORING 5X5/60 

  • These numbers are courtesy Natural Stat Trick.
  • McDavid-Draisaitl set up nicely and Maroon had chances to cash that never arrived. That’s going to happen but the line overall looks ready.
  • The Nuge line didn’t get a lot done Saturday (Nuge had a fantastic look late on the 5×4 but the defender blocked it) and will need to be more dangerous 5×5.
  • The Strome line came on as the Vancouver game rolled along, there are interesting possibilities for the trio. Ryan Strome doesn’t have a lot of support but for me that Saturday game was encouraging.
  • The Letestu line looks lost without Kassian, Khaira grabbed that job early and held on like a titan. Good for him, love to see that happen.
  • The offense from the defenders was what you might expect in an eight game stretch.

PREDICTIONS 2017-18

  • Final record: 82GP, 46-28-8 100PTS
  • Finish: No. 2 in the Pacific Division, No. 4 in the Western Conference, No. 10 overall
  • All-Star Team (mid-season): Connor McDavid, Leon Draisaitl, Oscar Klefbom, Cam Talbot
  • Traded by deadline: Anton Slepyshev, Caleb Jones
  • Original Prediction August 27: Source

When I made those predictions in late August, I did so with the assumption the skilled RW’s would not include Kailer Yamamoto. If I changed it today, the numbers might come in 95-98 but wouldn’t change much. The biggest tweak from my August roster is Kailer Yamamoto, who is the most promising offensive winger among the department of youth group. That’s doesn’t mean he’ll succeed but he’s earned the chance to play October hockey in the NHL. If he plays in all 10 games, you’d like to see 7+ points and a few at evens. I think he is a talented offensive player and there are Spud Webb stories in sports. Yamamoto is going to be a big part of the first month.

TOM PETTY

I always loved his music, Petty and the Heartbreakers were one of the few pre-punk/new wave bands who had no trouble at all surviving the invasion of new sounds in 1977. In later years I came to know Petty as a fantastic resource through his Buried Treasure radio show. In the hours that have elapsed since the news of his passing, it’s been an education reading from both fans and musicians of all stripes. Tom Petty touched us all, through his music and his love of other people’s music, and his ability to use his fame to shine a light on brilliant musicians who are less well known.

One of my favorite things about musicians is their ability to appreciate each other, no matter the gaps in style and presentation. I got a first hand look behind the curtain years ago in Rocky Mountain House, Alberta. I drove out from Red Deer to emcee a concert that included Holly Woods and Toronto and a folk singer named Gary Fjellgaard. I was back stage having a beer maybe three hours before the show, and Fjellgaard popped in with his acoustic guitar. He grabbed a beer and we started chatting (I’d met him before at CKGY studios in Red Deer). We chatted a little and a few minutes later the guitar player from Toronto popped in to see what was going on.

Over the next hour or so, I got to watch two musicians from worlds apart find common ground on all manner of things. From guitars owned to guitars future, to songwriting inspiration to road stories (road stories are the funniest and big events happen in the middle of the night) it was amazing to see how much respect and warmth came from both sides. There was an instant connection, appreciation. I’ve never forgotten it, music truly is its own language.

Tom Petty found a way to reach us from 1976 through yesterday, through his talent and goodness. After producing the soundtrack for his generation, he followed it up by reminding that same generation about the good music they’d missed. At each step along the way, Tom Petty was exactly where he should have been. We should all be so lucky to have such a brilliant compass.

LOWDOWN WITH LOWETIDE

A busy show, 10 this morning TSN1260. Man it’s going to be a fun week! Scheduled to appear:

  • Jonathan Willis, The Athletic. Waiver wire, Jaromir Jagr, Kailer Yamamoto.
  • Scott Mitchell, TSN. Blue Jays winter, MLB playoffs.
  • Scott Cullen, TSN. Opening night hockey, MLB playoffs.

10-1260 text, @Lowetide twitter. See you on the radio!

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112 Responses to "AMERICAN GIRL"

  1. hunter1909 says:

    Hunter1909’s Oilers Death March is back for the 2017-18 season!

    Here’s how you play: Pick the exact number of points you think the Oilers will have at the end of the season.

    Then, after the usual training camp hypejobs stop and the real NHL starts, Oilers usually lose 2-3 defencemen and spent the rest of the season chasing/debating the lottery. And what better way is there to enjoy those pointless, meaningless games than The Hunter1909 Official Oilers Death March(TM)?

    It’s easy!

  2. OriginalPouzar says:

    If we go with the practice lines:

    – We know the McDavid line will produce – Maroon was in the right place at the right time and making the right plays throughout exhibition – just like last season – he simply didn’t cash his opportunities – no worries, he looks like the exact same player as last season which is a good thing

    – Nuge looks like a very similar player to last year – he has talked about not cheating for defence as much and being more of an offensive player but we’ve yet to see it. Hopefully it comes

    – Strome had his best exhibition game in the last game of the season – that line looked good to me.

    – That fourth line is a material fourth line – looks really solid.

    – Slep as the #13 is fantastic depth.

    On the back-end – come on Matty – run with the opportunity – its a massive, massive, role for this year. If you are unable to do it, an acquisition must be made and, frankly, should be made anyways as you on the third pairing solves problems.

  3. RISTOOOOO SILTANEN!!!! says:

    Hey Hunter, please put me down for 98 points.

    Completely unscientifically and without evidence, I think there’ll be a few bumps at the beginning of the season, but will come on strong in the second half.

    That’s the story I’m telling myself.

  4. Lloyd B. says:

    hunter1909,

    92 points Mr. Hunter. Thanks

  5. Jaxon says:

    Reposted from a late comment to yesterday’s post.

    Interesting players around the league that may not be playing where they’d like to:

    Franson on PTO in Chicago. I think he’s currently #7D, so he may choose to sign elsewhere if someone shows interest:
    Keith-Murphy
    Forsling-Seabrook
    Kempny-Rutta
    Franson

    Sproul waived in DET behind, and Green in his final year (deadline rental or sooner?)
    Dekeyser-Daley
    Ericsson-Green
    Ouellet-Jensen
    Those are solid players that Sproul is stuck behind on the right side.

    Colin Miller has been mentioned but I don’t see them to eager to part ways with him. It would have to be a solid hockey trade, which I’m not sure the Oilers should or would do. He may be their top RHD. Theodore is good but inexperienced and playing on his off-side:
    McNabb-Theodore
    Schmidt-Miller
    Garrison-Sbisa

    Magnus Paajarvi may end up getting sent down. STL forwards currently look like this:
    Schwartz-Stastny-Tarasenko
    Sobotka-Schenn-Jaskin
    Barbashev-Megan-Thompson
    Upshall (recently signed in Paajarvi’s spot)-Brodziak-Throburn
    And that’s with Berglund, Steen, Fabbri and Sanford out. Those injuries may be the only reason he isn’t waived. YET.
    Paajarvi has pretty decent numbers. His 8 shots and 1.1 primary points / 5-on-5 minute are solid. He’s a big, fast, high draft pick, Finnish/Swede just like Puljujarvi. Can be used on the PK. Nice depth option.

    Alex Chiasson is currently playing on the 4th line in Washington on a PTO. If he saw a chance to play higher in the lineup somewhere else, he may sign. Not sure Edmonton would be the right place for him. Although, seeing how Maroon turned his career around, maybe Chiasson gambles on an injury to Maroon or Lucic giving him a shot in the future.

  6. OriginalPouzar says:

    One of the interesting names on the waiver wife from yesterday is Ryan Sproul and I think he might be a worthwhile claim if Chiarelli doesn’t think he can find a more proven option at 2RD prior to tomorrow night.

    I have no issue either sending Slepy down for a show stint to get up to game speed and going with 13F/8D to start the year or exposing Auvitu to waivers and sending him down until an injury hits or there is another need for a d-man change.

    It doesn’t fully cover the 2RD hole but creates more of a competition on the right side and for the 6D lineup spot.

  7. Lowetide says:

    Sproul was injured a year ago, that probably keeps him from getting claimed.I always liked him.

  8. OriginalPouzar says:

    Does Caleb Jones rocketing to the top of the “fab four” list, as far as readiness for the NHL and, potentially, ceiling change your thoughts on him being traded?

    I don’t think his performance at camp vis-a-vis the other D prospects was surprising but he was clearly the cream of the crop.

  9. Jaxon says:

    Watching the waiver wire this morning.

    Sproul is an interesting prospect. He’s 6’4″, 211lbs. 24 years old.
    His draft+2 season was spectacular. Of Canadian Junior players his NHLe is among the top of active NHLers.

    Canadian Junior League Draft+2 NHLe
    RYAN ELLIS OHL 45.69
    P.K. SUBBAN OHL 35.61
    *RYAN SPROUL OHL 34.64*
    ALEX PIETRANGELO OHL 30.44
    *ANDREJ SEKERA OHL 28.30*
    *COLIN MILLER OHL 26.73*
    *DARNELL NURSE OHL 24.05*
    TYSON BARRIE WHL 23.78
    TRAVIS HAMONIC WHL 23.76
    *RYAN MURPHY OHL 23.32*
    *ETHAN BEAR WHL 23.13*
    MADISON BOWEY WHL 22.90

    Great company at 35pts. He’s been decent in the AHL, too. If someone can tap his potential they’ll have a steal on their hands. If he falls to the Oilers, I think they should grab him. He won’t solve the #2RHD, but he may solve it in the future and he will push Gryba for the #3RHD. He can sit in the press box if not. He got into 27 games last season with DET.

  10. OriginalPouzar says:

    Lowetide:
    Sproul was injured a year ago, that probably keeps him from getting claimed.I always liked him.

    Do you think its worth the bet? Essentially finalizes the lineup unless we can move a contract out.

    Think he can play 2RD (or at least fight Benning for it)?

  11. anjinsan says:

    You would trade Slepyshev, a big, strong, fast, now-arriving RW in the face of needing a big strong fast RW? Jeez.

    Same with Caleb Jones.

    So much for asset management.

  12. Jaxon says:

    OriginalPouzar:
    Does Caleb Jones rocketing to the top of the “fab four” list, as far as readiness for the NHL and, potentially, ceiling change your thoughts on him being traded?

    I don’t think his performance at camp vis-a-vis the other D prospects was surprising but he was clearly the cream of the crop.

    It may factor into him getting traded as he is valuable but stuck behind a pretty impressive left side of Klefbom, Sekera, Russell, Nurse. With Paigin still adjusting to NA ice and game. Samurokov looking good, Lagesson looking okay and Simpson, Auvitu and Stanton all capable of playing in the NHL. Jones may get the most return while being expendable.

  13. Durag says:

    The projected 2nd line has me a little worried. Lucic-Nuge-Eberle did not work last year, I’m not sure how swapping Eberle for Yamamoto helps.

  14. slopitch says:

    Durag:
    The projected 2nd line has me a little worried. Lucic-Nuge-Eberle did not work last year, I’m not sure how swapping Eberle for Yamamoto helps.

    Agreed. Nuge hasn’t created enough offense for my liking since Hall left. Sigh. Need JP or KY to develop in a hurry. Or shoulda signed Hemmer.

    Good lineup though. I still say 104 pts. McLellan is a good coach.

  15. Elkhorn Boy says:

    Put me down for 104 points Hunter…. that will be 20 points higher than I projected last year. May our boys be protected by the Angel of Good Health!!

  16. Bag of Pucks says:

    Thanks for the poignant words on Tom Petty, LT.

    Shame that so many artists are eulogized by their hit singles. Tom Petty was so so much more than that.

    The two words that come to mind for me are honesty and integrity, and those are about the best things you can say about an artist, and a human being for that matter.

    “I’ll be the boy in the corduroy pants
    You be the girl at the high school dance
    Run with me wherever I go
    And just play dumb, whatever you know”

  17. J-Bo says:

    hunter1909,

    Put me done for 107 please Hunter!

  18. Brantford Boy says:

    Great post LT…
    Back to the expected posts, the hockey, its just around the corner…
    I hope Kassian welcomes Hamonic to the BOA with a thundering hit that wobbles him to the very core…
    5-3 Oil… Lets Go Oilers!!!

  19. jimmers2 says:

    Hunter,

    Please put me down for 99 points. Thanks for doing this again this year.

    I think it is reasonable to expect fewer points than last year, though I’m hoping to be wrong. I think the defence will cost them some, at least over the first half of the season. And it will be tougher to shake all of the change out of the Falmes’ pockets this time round. If only because Jaro wears spandex cycling shorts ; he has no pockets and that isn’t a roll of loonies.

  20. Acumen says:

    Hunter, put me down for 96 points please

  21. jimmers2 says:

    Also, I really like the look of that 4th line. They will chase some other team’s 4th lines to the bench and their 3rd over to RNH.

  22. Wonder Llama says:

    I knew you’d have a nice Tom Petty related story, LT. Thanks.

    Has TP ever been the RE?

  23. dustrock says:

    Anyone looking for a late-era banger that flew under the radar, check out Echo. Room at the Top is an all-time favorite, but top to bottom it’s fantastic.

    Didn’t hit me as hard as David Bowie passing, but not far behind. The great equalizer, the bacon of rock artists, if you will. Everyone liked at least a couple of his songs and I’m not sure I’ve noted that for any other artist/band.

    Learning to play guitar was hard for me, I’m not a natural. Learning to play guitar and sing at the same time was even harder. The first song I could make it through without screwing it up was Learning to Fly. It helped that it’s the same first position chord progression throughout. 🙂

    I did a medley of a few songs at my brother’s wedding and Into the Great Wide Open was in there.

    How many road trips, how many times working on the yard, how many beers consumed to Tom Petty.

  24. dustrock says:

    Regarding the Oilers, I told Hunter 100 points but I have to admit I’m a little terrified of the defence and the PK right now.

    Klefbom didn’t get a bunch of time, Benning still hasn’t really looked like his pre-concussion self to me. Nurse looks about the same.

    I’m less worried about the forward corps, despite the protests about Jagr.

  25. John Chambers says:

    One hundred and one points, Hunter.

  26. Pastor of Disaster says:

    In the spirit of excellent late-70’s music:

    Twenty, twenty, twenty-four hours to go-o-o,
    I wanna see McDavid
    Nothin’ to do, nowhere to go-o-o,
    I wanna see McDavid

  27. OriginalPouzar says:

    Sproul has cleared waivers.

    Bring on Collin Miler.

  28. Pouzar says:

    dustrock: Learning to play guitar was hard for me, I’m not a natural. Learning to play guitar and sing at the same time was even harder.

    +1

  29. T0ML says:

    @Hunter — Do you have a compiled list of the entries?

  30. who says:

    Durag:
    The projected 2nd line has me a little worried. Lucic-Nuge-Eberle did not work last year, I’m not sure how swapping Eberle for Yamamoto helps.

    Good point.
    I would prefer to see Nuge with Kassian and Khaira. Give him a couple of big wingers who can skate and forecheck.
    Maybe Strome would work with Lucic and Yamamoto.

  31. stephen sheps says:

    I had the pleasure of getting to see Tom Petty and the Heartbreakers on their 30th anniversary tour in 2006 in Denver, the last of the 6 shows they played with Pearl Jam as their opening act – yes, seriously that happened. It was a remarkable performance. PJ played a 90 minute opening set, with Benmont Tench sitting in for a blistering performance of Better Man, Black and Corduroy, followed by Mike Campbell joining in for a cover of the Byrds So You Want to be a Rock n Roll Star.

    Then came Petty, and the hits just kept coming and coming. You almost forget how deep the catalogue he has actually is, playing a healthy mix of everything from every era, including songs from his solo records, backed ably and happily by the heartbreakers of course. Eddie Vedder came out to sing with Tom on American Girl (https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=__RbfknwdL0) and later rejoined the band for The Waiting during the encore. Both bands eventually took the stage to do a cover of Dylan’s Rainy Day Woman No. 12 & 35.

    Without a doubt, that was the best show I’ve ever seen. I feel so lucky to have been able to experience that kind of event, where for a minute I truly believed in the power of rock n roll and its ability to save us all.

    (Because the internet is a magical place, here’s The Waiting from that same show: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=padBMW652No)

  32. McSorley33 says:

    Love the 1st line -obviously. But LD should be centering his own line. McDavid can drive his own line, thank you.

    The 2nd and 3rd lines scare nobody.

    As others have mentioned, love the 4th line…

  33. OriginalPouzar says:

    Are 2nd and 3rd lines supposed to scare people or just provide solid play and solid 2nd/3rd level production?

  34. OriginalPouzar says:

    Hossa’s LTIR being approved to the Hawks get the cap relief and will be able to sign Franson.

  35. texmex says:

    OriginalPouzar,

    Agree. I’m still confused why they won’t try RNH at RW, or at the very least put Drai on his RW, let him take the draws while RNH skates the middle. RNH is not an effective 2C IMO. This gives us two very good lines, a decent third and a great 4th.

    I’d like to see:

    Maroon Mcd Caggs/Slepy
    Lucic Drai RNH
    Jussi Strome Slepy/Caggs
    Khaira Test Kass

  36. 106 and 106 says:

    hunter1909,

    102 please Hunter!

  37. Brantford Boy says:

    T0ML:
    @Hunter — Do you have a compiled list of the entries?

    My guess is yes…

  38. T0ML says:

    Brantford Boy: My guess is yes…

    I should elaborate …. one to share …

  39. Professor Q says:

    OriginalPouzar:
    Hossa’s LTIR being approved to the Hawks get the cap relief and will be able to sign Franson.

    So both Chicago and Toronto get away Scott-Free?

  40. digger50 says:

    I see Drai up on the wing, but on the wing with Nuge at center.

    Strome faltering at 1RW pushes him down third line center. This plan B then allows Todd to load up the top six and play the heck out of them.

    I agree with previous poster about Lucic / Nuge / Yammer. Not strong enough. Would prefer. Lucic / Nuge / Drai. Solves all sorts of problems and becomes excellent second line.

    Connor will survive with any RW but could start with Caggulia, Yammer and swap in Kassian from time to time.

    Hope Stromes line can break even.

    Lestestu with Kass and KhairA should be able to come out positive in possession, goal %.

    I’d have Jessie back pretty quick.

    No room for Kelly. They decided to go with youth so let them play. No point in a bottom of the roster et at this point. Middle of the roster signing, different story. But they chose the youngsters to now teach them how to penalty kill.

  41. hunter1909 says:

    T0ML,

    Everything gets noted, so yes.

  42. OriginalPouzar says:

    Professor Q: So both Chicago and Toronto get away Scott-Free?

    Correct.

    I don’t know anything about Lupul and his injury but, from all accounts, the Hossa condition is real and serious.

  43. hunter1909 says:

    106 and 106:
    hunter1909,

    102 please Hunter!

    As you entered already, there’s no need to re-enter.

  44. OriginalPouzar says:

    Why are there no darn reports on practice this morning?

    I’m looking for an indication of the opening faceoff lines.

  45. SayItAin'tSo, Gretz, SayItAin'tSo! says:

    I mean its just a fun and flimsy set of predictions but still I’m gonna leave this right here.

    12. EDMONTON – Lord Stanley is coming home: The Oilers will end Canada’s Stanley Cup drought after 25 long years. Connor McDavid matched Sidney Crosby by winning the Hart and Art Ross in his sophomore season. Along with Leon Draisaitl, his version of Evgeni Malkin, McDavid will one-up Crosby by capturing the Cup in his third season – after Crosby fell short in Game 6 against the Red Wings.

    http://www.tsn.ca/31-bold-predictions-for-the-nhl-season-1.874108

  46. LadiesloveSmid says:

    Put me down for 92 points Hunter

  47. Wolfpack says:

    Tom Petty was one of my all-time favourites. He was a great performer but his songwriting was what set him apart from others. Watching the documentary on Netflix, it was interesting to see the influence he had on people like Eddie Vedder and Dave Grohl – they idolized Petty. Also, the battles Petty had with the studios was pretty interesting.

    I remember buying the Full Moon Fever cassette and basically playing it until it wore out. And I loved his turn with the Travelling Wilburys, that was another cassette I pretty well wore-out.

    I don’t know why, but I am thinking that the Oilers are going to struggle in October, but I won’t be worried. Barring injury, this is a playoff team again.

  48. OriginalPouzar says:

    Tanner glass officially signs in Calgary – should compete with Jagr for ice time.

  49. flea says:

    Hunter put me down for 89 points, I think chiarelli won’t add until the deadline, the team will squeak into the third seed in the pacific or wildcard and then go all the way.

  50. Gerta Rauss says:

    My favourite Tom Petty moment was when he appeared on the series finale of The Larry Sanders show and got into a dustup backstage with Clint Black

    Best Show Ever

  51. russ99 says:

    Nuge on the second line is temporary, he’s a better fit with Jokinen on the second line playing two-way higher comp, and I have no doubts that McLellan will see him necessary there before too much longer.

    Strome is the big question mark and to me he’s been demoted for slacking off. Message received and enough good effort in real games and he’ll go back to where he was intended, being a swap player for Leon at 1RW/2C and a much better fit with Lucic and I assume Caggiula as 2RW, once Kailer gets his 9 games.

  52. Professor Q says:

    VGK claims Subban. Vancouver and Calgary (and even Edmonton) could have used him, too.

  53. digger50 says:

    russ99:
    Nuge on the second line is temporary, he’s a better fit with Jokinen on the second line playing two-way higher comp, and I have no doubts that McLellan will see him necessary there before too much longer.

    Strome is the big question mark and to me he’s been demoted for slacking off. Message received and enough good effort in real games and he’ll go back to where he was intended, being a swap player for Leon at 1RW/2C and a much better fit with Lucic and I assume Caggiula as 2RW, once Kailer gets his 9 games.

    In Peters mind it’s temporary, for Todd he hopes it is.

    I think Todd is saying “Peter, you failed to get me a topRW this summer so I’m going back to Drai”

    Which effectively shifts the strategy of the entire forward roster.

    Also, Todd lives loading up his top six, more reason to have Nuge and Drai up together. I think we can win more with two very strong lines vs one strong and two average.

    Just bloviating here.

    I won’t complain about watching Drai and Connor together, that’s a fine show.

  54. Jethro Tull says:

    Professor Q:
    VGK claims Subban. Vancouver and Calgary (and even Edmonton) could have used him, too.

    Vegas has first claim, no?

  55. Crazy Pedestrian says:

    flea:
    Hunter put me down for 89 points, I think chiarelli won’t add until the deadline, the team will squeak into the third seed in the pacific or wildcard and then go all the way.

    At 89 points!? Wow, you must reaaaally think the pacific division will suck the hind banana…

    As for me… I will wait till the bitter end before I make any point predictions…

    When was the deadline again Hunter? I remember you saying that the deadline was extended until Oct. 14 or something…

  56. OriginalPouzar says:

    Professor Q:
    VGK claims Subban. Vancouver and Calgary (and even Edmonton) could have used him, too.

    We could have used another AHL goaltender for the 50th contract?

  57. OriginalPouzar says:

    Lines and today at practice were the same as at practice yesterday and, presumably, what we’ll see to open the the season tomorrow night.

  58. jtblack says:

    A friend sent me the following. Not sure where he gotnit from.

    “As Malcolm Subban hits waivers,  Andrei Vasilevskiy has been only first round goalie in the last 10 drafts to secure an NHL job.”

    Interesting stat. Guess Goalies are hard to predict. Not sure how many have been picked in the first rounds in the last decade.

  59. zatch says:

    jtblack,

    Believe it was Corey Pronman Tha God

  60. hunter1909 says:

    Crazy Pedestrian: When was the deadline again Hunter? I remember you saying that the deadline was extended until Oct. 14 or something…

    Correct.

    Hunter1909’s Oilers Death March is back for the 2017-18 season!

    Here’s how you play: Pick the exact number of points you think the Oilers will have at the end of the season.

    It’s easy! New and returning players Welcome!

  61. Kinger_Oil.redux says:

    OriginalPouzar,

    – Hunter: I will get back to you tmrw with my guess (I got nuthin’ but pride for winning 2 years ago!)

    Before I do, recall I asked the following questions in the off-season. 50+ entries:

    1) Which Oil player will Vegas select?: Griff (50% of us picked right)

    2) Who is our first pick in the Entry Draft? – Yamamoto: Marc was the only one who got this right! Nice!

    3) Does Ebs get moved? (bonus if you pick for who) – 70% said yes: McSorley, HighCloveside and Jimdewger called for Strome!

    4) Does RNH get moved (bonus if you pick for who)- 85% got this right: best collective call

    5) Who is our back-up G on game 1? – 78% called Brossoit right: Ellis was next most popular

    6) Total $ amount/years for Russell (0 is an answer) : 45% said he’d sign, only Leadfarmer predicted 4 years (@ $3.5), Whatif had it @ $4MM/year (4×3)

    7) Total $ amount/years of McDavid’s contract? – Was Asndy Dufresne the agent: his guess” 8 x 12.5 (This IS a hometown discount for a generational talent)” WOW! BDO also called for 8*12.5

    8) Total $ amount/years of Drai’s contract? – Again, Dufrense pretty close: ” 8 x 7.75 (This IS a hometown discount for the next Jagr/Thornton i.e. Thorgr)” No one else was higher than $7.5 * 8

    9) Which 2 D dress with Larsson/Klef/Nurse/Benning on game 1? So I’m assuming the answer is Russel & Gryba: VINOTINTAZO called it right! About 60% had Russel, and Harmonic was most popular other partner. Special mention to OMJO: “Fayne and Reinhart. No, I’m not on drugs”

    10) Biggest off-season F acquired in terms of salary?: Pink Socks called it right with Strome. Shout out to Lead for “your mom”, and the “Not GM of the year”, TREEVOJO, for suggesting Jagr @ *4MM x 2!…Lots of love for Hanzal

    11) Is Jessie playing in NHL game 1? Walter Sobchak, SLOPITCH, WOOGIE63, Blainer, DBO, MC SORLEY33, Ducey, RUSS99, and JTBLACK

    12) How many roster trades does Chia make? The correct answer is 1: Ebs for Strome: MC Sorely and VINOTINTAZO were the only ones who called it correct

    – We underestimated collectively the amount of off-season movement, we pinned for another D (Harmonic/Faulk/Barrie). No one had

    – Very few had both McD and Drai signing for 8 years, lots of 8 for McD, 5 for Drai, or 5 years each…

    – Vinotintazo and McSorely are this years winners: he got 5 of 12 correct: and a nice paypal donation to Lowetide on Vino’s behalf.

    – Kind of fun to look back. I wish I could do the bold and italics thingy stuff to make it less a wall of text thouugh!

    – Lowetide, thanks again for hosting this awesome community for all of us to enjoy

    GOILERS!!!!!

  62. OriginalPouzar says:

    Sounds like Slep will head to Bakersfield to play at least 1 game this weekend for conditioning.

    Condors open the season on Friday.

  63. OriginalPouzar says:

    Woodguy: Stauffer has requested that you provide the faceoff percentage for Letestu when he plays over 14 minutes – Stauffer thinks his percentage drops when he plays too many minutes.

    We all know his play drops when he plays too many minutes (and Mark himself knows that) but what about his faceoffs?

  64. Oil2Oilers says:

    OriginalPouzar:
    Tanner glass officially signs in Calgary – should compete with Jagr for ice time.

    Gold

  65. Professor Q says:

    OriginalPouzar: We could have used another AHL goaltender for the 50th contract?

    We don’t have 49 contracts already, do we? Released like 5 when we were at 47 and Yamamoto can be sent down.

  66. Woodguy v2.0 says:

    With all the Kelly talk I did he DFF% and GF% WOWY.

    Kelly has the single worst GF% WOWY table that I’ve ever seen.

    https://twitter.com/Woodguy55/status/915296278547853313

    Lennart Petrell looks at this table and says, “dude……really?”

    For those who don’t like links, here’s every player over 100 minutes with his GF% with Kelly minus his GF% away from Kelly.

    Here’s the TOI together first:
    Teammate TOI w/ Kelly
    Craig Anderson 388.9
    Mike Condon 365.0
    Cody Ceci 301.3
    Dion Phaneuf 283.2
    Erik Karlsson 271.8
    Tommy Wingels 246.0
    Marc Methot 238.3
    Chris Neil 223.8
    Tom Pyatt 214.0
    Chris Wideman 189.9
    Mark Borowiecki 186.2
    Jean-Gabriel Pageau 166.1
    Curtis Lazar 142.6
    Viktor Stalberg 100.4

    Here’s the net Kelly effect:

    Teammate GF% difference
    Craig Anderson -23.5
    Mike Condon -40.9
    Cody Ceci -30.0
    Dion Phaneuf -37.2
    Erik Karlsson -23.3
    Tommy Wingels -8.3
    Marc Methot -33.4
    Chris Neil -8.6
    Tom Pyatt -52.6
    Chris Wideman -45.0
    Mark Borowiecki -15.4
    Jean-Gabriel Pageau -45.1
    Curtis Lazar -40.0
    Viktor Stalberg 0.0

  67. Professor Q says:

    Jethro Tull: Vegas has first claim, no?

    I didn’t realise they had first claim. Thought that would still be the last place teams, with Vegas at around 5 or 6.

  68. Woodguy v2.0 says:

    OriginalPouzar:
    Woodguy: Stauffer has requested that you provide the faceoff percentage for Letestu when he plays over 14 minutes – Stauffer thinks his percentage drops when he plays too many minutes.

    We all know his play drops when he plays too many minutes (and Mark himself knows that) but what about his faceoffs?

    Bob needs to ply me with steak to get me to work

  69. digger50 says:

    Thoughts on Duchene ending up in Calgary? Wonder if they move on of thier top 4 D men and a prospect for Duchene.

    Spector planted this seed of thought in his season predictions.

    Probably missed on him and then looked to sign Jagr.

  70. T0ML says:

    hunter1909:
    T0ML,

    Everything gets noted, so yes.

    Cool — I recall you posting it a year or two ago, was curious if you were planning the same this year.

  71. vinotintazo says:

    digger50:
    Thoughts on Duchene ending up in Calgary? Wonder if they move on of thier top 4 D men and a prospect for Duchene.

    Spector planted this seed of thought in his season predictions.

    Probably missed on him and then looked to sign Jagr.

    I’d move brodie + for him.

  72. OriginalPouzar says:

    GM confirmed that Chris Kelly won’t be signed at the point and we will open the season with the current 23 man roster.

    No surprise here.

    He did, unfortunately, not close the door on potentially signing him at some point and said “he’s an NHLer” which I’m not sure I agree with.

    I watched every exhibition game and he wasn’t effective on the PK and was awful as evens.

    Not to mention:

    https://twitter.com/Woodguy55/status/915296278547853313

  73. Professor Q says:

    jtblack:
    A friend sent me the following. Not sure where he gotnit from.

    “As Malcolm Subban hits waivers, Andrei Vasilevskiy has been only first round goalie in the last 10 drafts to secure an NHL job.”

    Interesting stat. Guess Goalies are hard to predict.Not sure how many have been picked in the first rounds in the last decade.

    2017

    26 – Jake Oettinger, DAL

    2016

    N/A

    2015

    22 – Ilya Samsonov, WAS

    2014

    N/A

    2013

    N/A

    2012

    19 – Andrei Vasilevskiy, TAM

    24 – Malcolm Subban, BOS

    2011

    N/A

    2010

    11 – Jack Campbell, DAL

    27 – Mark Visentin, PHX

    2009

    N/A

    2008

    18 – Chet Pickard, NAS

    30 – Tom McCollum, DET

    2007

    N/A

  74. hunter1909 says:

    T0ML,

    Thank you for asking. Please feel free to send all Death March questions to:

    hunter2909@safe-mail.net

    Thank you for your cooperation

  75. OriginalPouzar says:

    Slepy officially on the Condors.

    I presume he’ll be back as early as Monday for the game against the Jets (I think its the Jets).

  76. Professor Q says:

    OriginalPouzar:
    Slepy officially on the Condors.

    I presume he’ll be back as early as Monday for the game against the Jets (I think its the Jets).

    You’re right. No Benny, though?

  77. Lowetide says:

    With Slepyshev heading to Bakersfield, Oilers now at 22 men on the roster. The club may begin the season one man down.

  78. OriginalPouzar says:

    Professor Q: We don’t have 49 contracts already, do we? Released like 5 when we were at 47 and Yamamoto can be sent down.

    I believe we are at 49 right now – unless/until Kailer goes back to Spokane – I think its likely but its not a certainty.

    Those “releases” did not include players with NHL contracts – you cannot release a player from an NHL contract, they are guaranteed contracts.

  79. OriginalPouzar says:

    digger50:
    Thoughts on Duchene ending up in Calgary? Wonder if they move on of thier top 4 D men and a prospect for Duchene.

    Spector planted this seed of thought in his season predictions.

    Probably missed on him and then looked to sign Jagr.

    If they want to pay Sakic’s asking price, I hope they get him.

    He was once a wonderful player.

    He may one day be a wonderful player again but he is on a 4 year regression rivaling that of Jordan Eberle and he’s production rivals that of Jordan Eberle – difference is he’s a center and does win faceoffs.

    The trade return Sakic is requiring is that required of a wonderful player, something Matt has not been for a few years, although could once again become.

    Go for it Treliving – pay the wonderful player cost.

  80. OriginalPouzar says:

    Lowetide:
    With Slepyshev heading to Bakersfield, Oilers now at 22 men on the roster. The club may begin the season one man down.

    I think that’s the plan. No need to bring anyone up on the assumption that Slep will be back shortly.

    If I’m not mistaken, prior to the trade deadline, there is a limited number of call-ups allowed from the AHL.

    PC did state today that this is his opening 23 man roster (including Slep).

  81. Lowetide says:

    OriginalPouzar:
    PC did state today that this is his opening 23 man roster (including Slep).

    I never completely believe NHL general managers. 🙂

  82. OriginalPouzar says:

    Lowetide: I never completely believe NHLgeneral managers.

    Like when our manager says, after the playoffs last year, that our defence isn’t good enough to compete with likes of the D-groups on ANA and NSH and our group needs improvement, and then proceeds to bring back the exact same defence with full knowledge that a key part of it will be missing for a material part of the season (i.e. bringing back a worse defence)???????

  83. Professor Q says:

    OriginalPouzar,

    Chia intentionally injured Sekera.

  84. Side says:

    Professor Q:
    OriginalPouzar,

    Chia intentionally injured Sekera.

    Or maybe he has plans to injure ANA and NSH’s defense?

  85. OriginalPouzar says:

    Professor Q:
    OriginalPouzar,

    Chia intentionally injured Sekera.

    No, but he mentioned the defence wasn’t good enough with him and needed to be improved and he knew/knows that we don’t have him and still didn’t improve the defence.

  86. Dee Dee says:

    OriginalPouzar,

    Lowetide: I never completely believe NHLgeneral managers.
    Like when our manager says, after the playoffs last year, that our defence isn’t good enough to compete with likes of the D-groups on ANA and NSH and our group needs improvement, and then proceeds to bring back the exact same defence with full knowledge that a key part of it will be missing for a material part of the season (i.e. bringing back a worse defence)???????

    defense is a “team” thing, it’s not just “Defencemen”

    The worst offenders in terms of the Team defense (ie, forwards not contributing) are no longer here, so that has been addressed somewhat.

  87. misfit says:

    I don’t expect us to get Sproul due to where we’ll be in waiver priority, but if he goes unclaimed, there’s something wrong with NHL GMs across the board.

  88. Lowetide says:

    OriginalPouzar: No, but he mentioned the defence wasn’t good enough with him and needed to be improved and he knew/knows that we don’t have him and still didn’t improve the defence.

    He made a small (and I think astute) bet on Auvitu and they brought in Stanton as well. Small bets sometimes don’t work but sometimes they end up being Steve Staios. I liked what he did in this area over the summer, while also believing he may have to pull the trigger on a defenseman right soon.

  89. hunter1909 says:

    Hunter1909’s Oilers Death March is back for the 2017-18 season!

    Here’s how you play: Pick the exact number of points you think the Oilers will have at the end of the season.

    Then, after the usual training camp hypejobs stop and the real NHL starts, Oilers usually lose 2-3 defencemen and spent the rest of the season chasing/debating the lottery. And what better way is there to enjoy those pointless, meaningless games than The Hunter1909 Official Oilers Death March(TM)?

    It’s easy!

    Returning and New players welcome!

  90. McNuge93 says:

    OriginalPouzar: I think that’s the plan. No need to bring anyone up on the assumption that Slep will be back shortly.

    If I’m not mistaken, prior to the trade deadline, there is a limited number of call-ups allowed from the AHL.

    PC did state today that this is his opening 23 man roster (including Slep).

    Does Slepy actually come off the 23 man if he is just on a conditioning stint? Perhaps he has to still count against the roster.

  91. McSorley33 says:

    Thanks to Kinger Oil for a great contest……

  92. Pre-Mix says:

    Hunter, please put me down for 108.

  93. geowal says:

    McNuge93: Does Slepy actually come off the 23 man if he is just on a conditioning stint? Perhaps he has to still count against the roster.

    He’s not on a conditioning stint, he’s been sent down. That said, the wording made it clear it is temporary. He is off the roster, it now stands at 22, but assuming the assignment is short-lived he will bring it back to 23 so long as KY is around.
    “The #Oilers assigned Anton Slepyshev to the Bakersfield Condors today to get him into some games prior to his return to NHL action|

  94. dustrock says:

    Dee Dee:
    OriginalPouzar,

    Lowetide: I never completely believe NHLgeneral managers.
    Like when our manager says, after the playoffs last year, that our defence isn’t good enough to compete with likes of the D-groups on ANA and NSH and our group needs improvement, and then proceeds to bring back the exact same defence with full knowledge that a key part of it will be missing for a material part of the season (i.e. bringing back a worse defence)???????

    defense is a “team” thing, it’s not just “Defencemen”

    The worst offenders in terms of the Team defense (ie, forwards not contributing) are no longer here, so that has been addressed somewhat.

    I think the Sekera injury might have impacted that, but yeah.

  95. Nuclear leak says:

    Someone needs to create the Chiarelli facial hair – roster movement flow chart.

    He’s currently sporting a 10-14 day beard, I think he’s circling back around to a deal he inquired about with his hairless summer face. Whoever the opposing GM is let’s hope a deal gets done and Handlebar Chiarelli doesn’t make a sudden appearance,

  96. OriginalPouzar says:

    Dee Dee:
    OriginalPouzar,

    Lowetide: I never completely believe NHLgeneral managers.
    Like when our manager says, after the playoffs last year, that our defence isn’t good enough to compete with likes of the D-groups on ANA and NSH and our group needs improvement, and then proceeds to bring back the exact same defence with full knowledge that a key part of it will be missing for a material part of the season (i.e. bringing back a worse defence)???????

    defense is a “team” thing, it’s not just “Defencemen”

    The worst offenders in terms of the Team defense (ie, forwards not contributing) are no longer here, so that has been addressed somewhat.

    Aside from Eberle (replaced by Strome), I’m not sure what other material player you might be talking about.

    The loss of Pouliot would be a negative effect on the team defence concept notwithstanding some periods of PIM trouble.

    I do agree with your general concept re; defence though.

  97. OriginalPouzar says:

    Dee Dee:
    OriginalPouzar,

    Lowetide: I never completely believe NHLgeneral managers.
    Like when our manager says, after the playoffs last year, that our defence isn’t good enough to compete with likes of the D-groups on ANA and NSH and our group needs improvement, and then proceeds to bring back the exact same defence with full knowledge that a key part of it will be missing for a material part of the season (i.e. bringing back a worse defence)???????

    defense is a “team” thing, it’s not just “Defencemen”

    The worst offenders in terms of the Team defense (ie, forwards not contributing) are no longer here, so that has been addressed somewhat.

    Aside from Eberle (replaced by Strome), I’m not sure what other material player you might be talking about.

    The loss of Pouliot would be a negative effect on the team defence concept notwithstanding some periods of PIM trouble.

    I do agree with your general concept re; defence though.

    misfit:
    I don’t expect us to get Sproul due to where we’ll be in waiver priority, but if he goes unclaimed, there’s something wrong with NHL GMs across the board.

    He cleared.

  98. OriginalPouzar says:

    Lowetide: He made a small (and I think astute) bet on Auvitu and they brought in Stanton as well. Small bets sometimes don’t work but sometimes they end up being Steve Staios. I liked what he did in this area over the summer, while also believing he may have to pull the trigger on a defenseman right soon.

    I don’t disagree but I don’t think the bet on Auvitu moves the needle in this regard and, of course, while he has plenty of NHL experience, I don’t think Stanton fits the bill for improvement as the plan was always for him to fight for a 7D type spot.

    I took Chiarelli’s comments to mean that the 2RD (Russell spot) needed to be upgraded.

  99. OriginalPouzar says:

    McNuge93: Does Slepy actually come off the 23 man if he is just on a conditioning stint? Perhaps he has to still count against the roster.

    He’s not on a conditioning stint – just assigned as he doesn’t need to be exposed to waivers.

    Either way, yes, he is off the roster right now.

  100. till_horcoff_is_coach says:

    Hunter, please put me down for 96

  101. su_dhillon says:

    How much of playing Leon with 97 to start the year is to get him off to hot start in counting numbers and remove the chance he scores less on his own and then has to answer questions about the contract and was he worth it?

  102. OriginalPouzar says:

    The contract should be a non-factor in McLellan’s deployment of his 23 man roster.

    He needs to deploy his 23 man roster (well, 22 for a few days) in the manner that he believes gives the team a chance to win each and every night – notwithstanding how much money any individual player makes.

    It appear that, as of now, he believes Strome at C and Drai at 1RW gives the team the best chance for two points on October 4 versus calgary.

  103. Georges says:

    stephen sheps:
    I had the pleasure of getting to see Tom Petty and the Heartbreakers on their 30th anniversary tour in 2006 in Denver, the last of the 6 shows they played with Pearl Jam as their opening act – yes, seriously that happened. It was a remarkable performance. PJ played a 90 minute opening set, with Benmont Tench sitting in for a blistering performance of Better Man, Black and Corduroy, followed by Mike Campbell joining in for a cover of the Byrds So You Want to be a Rock n Roll Star.

    Then came Petty, and the hits just kept coming and coming. You almost forget how deep the catalogue he has actually is, playing a healthy mix of everything from every era, including songs from his solo records, backed ably and happily by the heartbreakers of course. Eddie Vedder came out to sing with Tom on American Girl (https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=__RbfknwdL0) and later rejoined the band for The Waiting during the encore. Both bands eventually took the stage to do a cover of Dylan’s Rainy Day Woman No. 12 & 35.

    Without a doubt, that was the best show I’ve ever seen. I feel so lucky to have been able to experience that kind of event, where for a minute I truly believed in the power of rock n roll and its ability to save us all.

    (Because the internet is a magical place, here’s The Waiting from that same show: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=padBMW652No)

    Ah, hey, this was nice. Eddie seems like a younger brother who admires his older brother to all heck. Who knows who the good guys are anyway… Tom and Eddie are good guys…

  104. pts2pndr says:

    OriginalPouzar,

    The limited number of call ups is after the trade deadline !

  105. OriginalPouzar says:

    pts2pndr:
    OriginalPouzar,

    The limited number of call ups is after the trade deadline !

    I had it backwards? Like most of my posts…..

    Thanks.

  106. GMB3 says:

    Bergmund with 3 points in 5 games to start the year in Sweden

  107. rickithebear says:

    RNH: faced 2nd comp as an 18 year old.
    He had the 9th best 18 year old .84 PPG season of the modern era.

    He has faced pvp the ladt 5 seasons.
    His weak FO% has had me suggest him as a RW.

    But if we look at leading PVP centers healthy seasons avg between 13-4 to 16-17

    RNH 6M 20-23yr)
    Ev 16g 21a 37p
    PP 4g 11a 15p
    ————————
    79gm 20g 32a 52p

    Toews 10.5M (26-28yr)
    EV 17g 23a 40p
    PP 6g 11a 17p
    ———————–
    78gm 23g 34a 57p
    SH 3g 2a 5p

    Kesler 7.5M (29-32yr)
    EV 14g 22a 36p
    PP 6g 9a 15p
    ——————–
    81gm 20g 31a 51p
    SH 1g 1a 2p

    Bergeron M (28-31yr)
    EV 17g 22a 39p
    PP 8g 9a 17p
    ————————-
    80gm 25g 31a 56p
    SH 1g 2a 3p

    O,rielly 7.5M (22-25yr)
    EV 13g 24a 37p
    PP 7g 13a 20p
    ————————
    77gm 20g 37a 57p
    SH 1g 0a 1p

    Kopitar 10m (27-30yr)
    EV 13g 30a 43p
    PP 7g 14a 21p
    ———————-
    80gm 20g 44a 64p
    SH 0g 1a 1p

    Little M (26-29yr)
    EV 14g 22a 36p
    PP 8g 8a 16p
    ———————
    74gm 22g 30a 52p
    SH 1g 1a 2p

    Backlund m (24-27yr)
    EV 13g 18a 31p
    PP 5g 7a 12p
    ——————–
    80gm 18g 30a 48p
    SH 2g 1a 3a

    M Koivu x m (30-33yr)
    EV 11g 24a 35p
    PP 5g 13a 18p
    ———————-
    81gm 16g 37a 53p
    Sh og 1a 1p

    When I here RNH lacks offensive performance. (Even & PP)
    It tells me:
    A. People have no clue about situational performance.
    B. Thier are onlt 2 options why they have not figured this out.
    They are either
    – F…Stub…
    – F… Stup..

    PC stated he is looking forward to RNH having offence be his priority rather than cover defence for ……

  108. OriginalPouzar says:

    GMB3:
    Bergmund with 3 points in 5 games to start the year in Sweden

    Yes, he he got those three points in one game I believe a few weeks ago.

    He’s playing some solid solid minutes from reports – Swedish Poster has been a wealth of information on Berglund and Lagresson.

  109. Munny says:

    stephen sheps: Both bands eventually took the stage to do a cover of Dylan’s Rainy Day Woman No. 12 & 35.

    I trust you followed instructions, Stephen.

    😉

  110. Kinger_Oil.redux says:

    stephen sheps,

    – Wow what a great thing to go and see: was this link your recording?

    – It ties in so nicely with what LT was saying about artists of different genres, at the end of the day, they just like music together as musicians.

    – We’ve lost some monster people in music last few years, mostly all too soon: Bowie, Cohen, Merle Haggard, Prince, Fry, Allman, Cornell: and a bunch I missed. Heck I’m still shook up that Michael Jackson is dead, and I thought he has “g$y” growing up.

  111. godot10 says:

    su_dhillon:
    How much of playing Leon with 97 to start the year is to get him off to hot start in counting numbers and remove the chance he scores less on his own and then has to answer questions about the contract and was he worth it?

    How much of playing Connor with 29 to start is to get him off to a hot start in counting numbers and remove the chance that he scores less on his own and then has to answer questions about the contract and was he worth it?

  112. stephen sheps says:

    Georges,

    yeah, it was a really cool thing. The little brother analogy totally fit. You could tell just how excited they were to be sharing a stage with Tom, and for good reason. Good guys indeed.

    Munny,

    I plead the 5th, just in case some of my students read this site… 😉

    Kinger_Oil.redux,

    Nope, not my recording. I didn’t have the technology available at the time to do such things, but I’m really grateful that the recording exists. The friend I went to that show with is a die-hard Petty fan, whereas I was more on team Pearl Jam (our seats were through the PJ fan club – so they were excellent). I don’t see him as often as I used to, in part because we live in different cities now and in part because that’s what happens when you get older. I found those links today and sent them to him. A lot of feelings were felt.

    It’s true, we’ve lost some absolute giants in the last couple of years. Bowie hit me the hardest, followed by Weiland and Cornell, but Petty’s right up there. He had a habit of always being at the right place at the right time with the right people – the way the traveling wilburys came together is a prime example.

    Thanks for the replies, friends. I haven’t been around much lately. Teaching and transcribing interviews has taken up much of my spare time. That’s what is so great about this place, though. You can drop in whenever, and even if the conversation isn’t about hockey there’s still room at the table.

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