MCDAVID SPEEDWAY

Connor McDavid’s goal last night—the second one—must have been a dagger to the heart of the Calgary Flames. It can’t be any fun at all on the day you find out you’re Wile E. Coyote, but on that second goal all the air came out of the tires on the red team. The ultimate nutcracker—and that’s a good team in Calgary. McDavid was brilliant, Talbot made some fantastic saves and the rest of the team played well. Strong on the puck, calm feet, patient outlet passing—there was a helluva lot to like last night.

TODD MCLELLAN

  • “When we started last year, I thought we were outscoring our mistakes. Tonight we didn’t make many.”

OILERS IN  OCTOBER

  • Oilers in October 2015: 4-8-0, goal differential -7
  • Oilers in October 2016: 7-2-0, goal differential +10
  • Oilers in October 2017: 1-0-0, goal differential +3

A nice start in front of the home crowd, the top of the roster tearing up the blacktop while the middle and bottom of the group didn’t spend a lot of time burning daylight. Outstanding effort across the board. I guess you could bitch about the power play, but that’ll come.

WHAT TO EXPECT FROM OCTOBER

  • At home to: Calgary (Expected: 1-0-0) (Actual 1-0-0)
  • On the road to: Vancouver  (Expected: 1-0-0) (Actual: 0-0-0)
  • At home to: Winnipeg, Ottawa, Carolina (Expected 1-1-1) (Actual: 0-0-0)
  • On the road to: Chicago, Philadelphia, Pittsburgh (Expected 1-1-1) (Actual 0-0-0)
  • At home to: Dallas, Washington (Expected 1-1-0) (Actual 0-0-0)
  • Overall expected result: 5-3-2, 12 points in  10 games 
  • Current results: 1-0-0, 2 points after one game

DEFENSE LAST NIGHT

  • All numbers via NaturalStatTrick.
  • Oscar Klefbom, oh my! He had nine shots, 15 shot attempts and rocked Matt Fenwick’s number past 75 and kept it between the lines. Hallelujah, amen!
  • Klefbom—Larsson went 30-9 together Fenwick (all numbers Fenwick and all numbers 5×5), including a tidy 23-5 with the McDavid line and 7-5 with the Nuge. The Swedes played most against Gaudreau-Monahan-Ferland (12-9) and were 18-0 against the rest. Klefbom is going to get a lot of attention this season, on merit. Larsson is less flashy, but very effective. He’s a rocknrolla.
  • Nurse—Gryba went 11-5 together, and that included 4-2 with Mark Letestu, 5-3 with McDavid and 3-3 with Ryan Nugent-Hopkins. A balanced pairing on the night, Nurse faced Versteeg—Bennett—Brower most often, going 3-5. Darnell Nurse had a strong game in my opinion, lots of smart analytics people have made the call on him, I’m of the belief the game is still slowing down for him and development continues. Last night was a good arrow for the youngster.
  • Russell—Benning was the pairing we were most concerned with, I thought they were solid to good despite the Fenwick numbers. Pair went 12-18 together, including 6-8 with the Strome line and 2-5 with McDavid. Went 5-12 against the Monahan line, Gaudreau torched them but could not cash. Russell is stronger left side and Benning looked like the freewheeling rookie of last year with the puck on his stick. I’m not saying the Fenwicks are lying, but the visual on this pair was far more attractive than the numbers. You are free to accuse me of bias, we have 81 more games to argue.
  • Cam Talbot stopped all 26 shots he faced, several of the difficult variety.

FORWARDS LAST NIGHT

  • Connor McDavid is going to inspire someone to create more adjectives. His entire night was ridiculous, but that second goal came from another world. The only thing the six Flames on the ice could offer was eye witness testimony.
  • Maroon—McDavid—Draisaitl owned the game save one or two shifts, they were dynamic and aggressive. The Flames are a good team, I swear to God. Trio went 29-12 together, including 13-8 against Giordano—Hamilton and 15-6 against T.J. Brodie (10-3 against Travis Hamonic). Scorched Sam Bennett 17-2, only 9-6 against Sean Monahan’s line. The McDavid line are the electric horsemen of the Oilers.
  • Lucic—RNH—Yamamoto didn’t last the entire night but hung in there for a lot of it. Nuge was  7-3  with Lucic and the line had two feature RW’s. 93 was 3-4 with Yamamoto and 3-1 with Zack Kassian, who had a nice run with the 2line. Nuge went 7-0 against the Tkachuk—Backlund—Frolik line and that might be the best news all night. Folks, Nuge has to score and we know it. The line’s possession numbers last night were outstanding and that’s a very good sign. I’m not sure Yamamoto gets much more time with this line.
  • Jokinen—Strome—Caggiula also had a good evening, going 8-8 as a trio. They went 5-4 against Tkachuk—Backlund—Frolik and that’s excellent. I liked Strome’s game but for me the key man on the trio is Jokinen. His instincts are fabulous, just a wicked hockey player.
  • Khaira—Letestu—Kassian went 7-5 as a line and I liked their game. For once, Letestu wasn’t overused on special teams and was able to center his own unit on the 5×5. Khaira is a big, ornery player who gave the Flames some real problems. Kassian once again showed an ability to move up in the order, getting a 10-bell chance on the Nuge line that might have been the best chance for that unit. Line went 4-1 against Glass—Stajan—Hathaway, a line I didn’t like at all, although the broadcasters seemed to like them fine. Khaira got some PK time and played well to my eye.

CONNOR MCDAVID

Another searing performance by the captain, that second goal will be remembered a long time. He didn’t pass some rookie and he wasn’t playing the Colorado Avalanche. We’ve talked about this before, but on the  ice with the puck on his stick, McDavid is blur meets rumor. There’s no defense in hockey, there’s no mathematical formula, there’s no  answer for that kind of speed and control. Last night, T.J. Brodie, a very good NHL defender, was a house by the side of the road, a witness but not a participant. Incredible. Brodie didn’t even make “also in photo” status when all was said and done. Special.

CAM TALBOT

Even in a well played game, you need the goalie to make some saves. Talbot went long periods without a lot of activity, but made some outstanding saves in a contest that remained close until  deep into the proceedings. Last year’s formula may have a new wrinkle (more in a minute)

THE REST OF THE STORY

In yesterday’s GD post, I wrote “it’s going to be a long season, once again relying heavily on Connor McDavid and Cam Talbot. The formula works, we saw it a year ago. Will the complementary players push this team higher?”

Based on one game only, the answer could be yes. Lines two through four gave a strong account of themselves against a good Calgary team (I don’t like their fourth line but the rest of the group is going to make some noise). We need to see more of the group, and there will be tweaks along the way. You can only play the games on the schedule, but there appears to be real quality and depth on this roster. Stay tuned!

KAILER YAMAMOTO

The thing that made him so impressive in preseason were the number of times he touched the puck and then moved it to a good spot. We didn’t see him touch the puck much in his first NHL game and perhaps he has reached his outer marker for this season. I think he’ll get a few more games this month to show his stuff and there’s every chance he shows us more in the ensuing games. He handled himself well and now we’re on to game two.

Actual NHL defenseman in full panic mode.

Let’s not get ahead of ourselves. Let’s also acknowledge the good that happened last night on Rogers ice. I look forward to Wheat’s thoughts today.

LOWDOWN WITH LOWETIDE

At 10 this morning, my friend Bruce McCurdy will be driving to the radio station with a smile on his face. Bruce and I are older gents, we’ve seen some things. Last year, we moved his day on the Lowdown because we seemingly always talked about a loss. No big deal, life is life. That said, I’m very much looking forward to this morning’s conversation with him. Bruce has earned the chance to talk about a win and a strong game, and we’ll clear the decks for him at 10:20. It all begins at 10 this morning, scheduled to appear:

  • Bruce McCurdy, Cult of Hockey. A big win for the Oilers opening night, dozens of storylines for Mr. McCurdy.
  • Rob Vollman, NHL.com and ESPN. Oilers-Flames, Jagr, Yamamoto.
  • Frank Seravalli, TSN. Frank picked the Oilers to win it all this season, how does he fell about that bet this morning?

10-1260 text, @Lowetide on twitter. Talk soon!

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186 Responses to "MCDAVID SPEEDWAY"

  1. OriginalPouzar says:

    McDavid was, well, wow. I heard the verbal throughout camp that he was faster – I watched all the games but its tough to tell streaming on a lap top. I just thought it was more of the normal “I’m in the best shape of my life” we hear every camp.

    Its true – he’s not just faster he’s more powerful – its not really fair, is it?

  2. Mariusz Czerkawski says:

    I was watching the game last night on my iPad in bed with the wife sleeping beside me. Right after Connor got the hat trick she woke up randomly and asked me why i was breathing “like Darth Vader”. After which she put her hand on my chest and asked me “why are you so sweaty”

    BECAUSE CONNOR FREAKING MCDAVID BABY!!!!!!!!

    I am really glad her hand didn’t venture further down south, that would have been a little harder to explain….

  3. OriginalPouzar says:

    More than McDavid and how great the first line looked (and they certainly looked good – the 3-4 cycle shifts were off the charts – Maroon was awesome), what is giving my the huge smile on my face today was the play of the defence – the entire defensive group.

    The verbal was the top pairing would play upwards of 30 min but they didn’t have to because all three pairings were playing well. I think Klef had 23 minutes. I was super impressed with the 2nd pairing. Benning was the calm, decisive puck mover I remember from the first half of last year and Russell is simply a much better player on the left side.

    Gryba played a solid game and Nurse was more decisive in his own zone and making good decisions – he’s still lost off the rush but I can live with that.

  4. hunter1909 says:

    ANNOUNCEMENT
    The Hunter1909 Death March deadline has NOW been extended to face off, October 14.

    Currently registered Death March(tm) players need not be concerned, as their details have already been entered for the 2017-18 Death March.

    Both Returning and New Players welcome.

    Thank you for your cooperation.

  5. hunter1909 says:

    Hunter1909’s Oilers Death March is back for the 2017-18 season!

    Here’s how you play: Pick the exact number of points you think the Oilers will have at the end of the season.

    Then, after the usual training camp hypejobs stop and the real NHL starts, Oilers usually lose 2-3 defencemen and spent the rest of the season chasing/debating the lottery. And what better way is there to enjoy those pointless, meaningless games than The Hunter1909 Official Oilers Death March(TM)?

    It’s easy!

  6. OriginalPouzar says:

    A bit of a shout-out to the coach and his line deployment tonight.

    I’m sure he was prepared to play Klef and Larsson 28 minutes but realized his bottom two pairs were playing good hockey and ran them out there.

    He realized that Yamamoto, while not making mistakes, was may in a bit over his head and, while he didn’t staple him to the bench, he reduced his minutes and spot played Kassian up the lineup – This allowed a guy like Letestu to play less minutes (save himself for special teams) and still got Kass 16 minutes of ice.

    I thought McLellan did a great job.

  7. OriginalPouzar says:

    Klefbom was also absolutely elite last night – not just a solid first pairing guy but an elite #1 d-man.

    9 shots on net?

    Can he play like that consistently?

  8. Jethro Tull says:

    I know we’ve disagreed before on this LT, but it’s still my belief that Calgary will struggle to score, or probably score in batches. Nothing to back this up with, but i believe that the Hamonic trade was bad for CGY – they could have got a couple better forwards for the price.

  9. Professor Q says:

    0 kph to 41 khp in 3.5 to 4 seconds.

    Covering the length of the ice.

    This McDavid is breaking hockey boundaries.

    We are in for a wild 9 years, people.

  10. Clarkenstein says:

    Most of the game was played in Calgary’s end but when it was in the Oil zone it seemed the Oil were in complete control. Of course Talbot had to be sharp a few times but it’s been years since I’ve seen the Orange sweaters move the puck out of their end so calmly and smoothly. Refreshing to see this team play with so much confidence in Game 1.

  11. zatch says:

    McDavid is damn special. Damn special. He’s the kind of player you wax poetic about when you’re a tired old man.

    Helluva game by the team as a whole. Calgary never looked like they had a chance at all. Nuge looked good and that’s pleasing. Yamamoto, for me, didn’t look like he was worth keeping up overall. We’ll see.

    I saw Russel bad last night. He’s gonna be a $4M AHL #4 Defenceman with 1.5 years left on his deal.

  12. frjohnk says:

    It may not seem like it from last night but Calgary does have one of the best top 4 D cores in the league.

    Not only did McDavid absolute shred that D core, the first line absolutely dominated it. Imagine if the first line has a game like this against a below average D core. Heck, imagine McDavid against the Oiler D corpse of 2010-15!!!

    Also the rest of the Oiler lines had a very good game and even though we were ahead for about 50 minutes, there were was no letting off the pedal. No score effects last night.

    What a wonderful start to this season.

  13. Professor Q says:

    Clarkenstein:
    Most of the game was played in Calgary’s end but when it was in the Oil zone it seemed the Oil were in complete control. Of course Talbot had to be sharp a few times but it’s been years since I’ve seen the Orange sweaters move the puck out of their end so calmly and smoothly. Refreshing to see this team play with so much confidence in Game 1.

    Well Edmonton has only worn the orange sweaters in the 1970s and for 2 seasons now, so that’s definitely understandable!

  14. Nuclear leak says:

    Vancouver was curled up in a ball watching last nights game, sobbing, knowing what’s coming to them on Saturday.

    Harmonic is going to have a long hard look in the mirror today.

    Yamamoto should of never been dressed for last nights tilt, Oilers were essentially playing with a short bench because of it. Inserting a fresh face rookie like that into the battle of Berta is alil batty.

    Klef and his 9 shots propelled me to a $30 FanDuel take home last night, going to be a fantasy stud this year.

  15. JAG-041 says:

    McDavid like Neo from the Matrix but in hockey… Insane…

  16. Professor Q says:

    JAG-041:
    McDavid like Neo from the Matrix but in hockey… Insane…

    “Stop trying to deke me and deke me!”

  17. khildahl says:

    Very impressed with Klefbom last night.

    If he consistently finds the time and space to take shots like the one that nearly decapitated Smith… Holy Hell.

  18. Durag says:

    Hunter, I already have my prediction in, but I’m going to predict that last night’s game spelled the end of those sub-90 point predictions we’ve been seeing 🙂

  19. OriginalPouzar says:

    Hey, Lowetide, looking at the Lowdown lineup, could we get a little more Football and Baseball talk this morning?

  20. oscarmike says:

    Nuge looked awesome last night. Just a totally different player. Look like he’s doing it this year being a more offensive player.

  21. khildahl says:

    Nuclear leak:
    Vancouver was curled up in a ball watching last nights game, sobbing, knowing what’s coming to them on Saturday.

    Well, most of them. I think it was past the Sedins’ bedtime.

  22. Jethro Tull says:

    Flawless Victory!

  23. Jethro Tull says:

    Don’t worry Flames fans, I’m sure the speed Jagr will inject into your lineup will make the difference.

  24. dustrock says:

    I started a hashtag last night #50in50Watch.

    Ladies and germs, it is a possibility.

  25. Lloyd B. says:

    I’m in Manitoba working for a few weeks. Went down to the pub in the hotel to watch the game and was sitting with a buddy who is a flames fan at the high top.

    Just before McDavid scores his first goal the bartender asks…Who is that 97 guy? He sure is fast. We thought he was joking. He wasn’t.

    So of course, every goal that 97 got I would ask my buddy .. Who is that 97 guy?

    Jockularity, jockularity

  26. N64 says:

    Jethro Tull:
    Don’t worry Flames fans, I’m sure the speed Jagr will inject into your lineup will make the difference.

    Fresh legs for a team worn down by the grind of a long pre-season.

  27. Jethro Tull says:

    khildahl: Well, most of them.I think it was past the Sedins’ bedtime.

    The don’t sleep. They’re switched off like Commander Data.

  28. Jordan says:

    NEVER say having McDavid is unfair.

    We earned this.

    10 years of pain and futility earned is this.

    Game 1 SCF 2006.

    August 9, 1988

    Karma is real, the hockey gods heard us.

    All praise to the Weir, amen.

  29. Pouzar says:

    “, lots of smart analytics people have made the call on him, I’m of the belief the game is still slowing down for him and development continues. ”

    Amen.

  30. dustrock says:

    LT by eye I thought Russell-Benning had a bit of a rocky 2nd, though I haven’t checked the stats to see if that’s backed up by the numbers.

    Certainly the entire group locked down in the 3rd and continued to push.

    I get that it’s Game 1, but compared to Game 1 a year ago, with all the nerves and expectations, they seem like a different team.

    I hate to use the word “seasoned” unless it involves food, but it looks like the Edmonton Oilers are seasoned after the playoffs.

  31. metallicat says:

    I work inside now with no access to radio…I miss you Lowetide!

  32. Pouzar says:

    “Nuge went 7-0 against the Tkachuk—Backlund—Frolik line and that might be the best news all night. ”

    Music!

  33. N64 says:

    OriginalPouzar: He realized that Yamamoto, while not making mistakes, was may in a bit over his head and, while he didn’t staple him to the bench, he reduced his minutes

    Partly situational, but his comment was that he wanted Moto to focus less on playing safe and more on playing smart. That’s a pitch right into Yam’s wheelhouse. Do what got you here. Moto probably got more watching on the bench than he would have continuing to play it safe. Think the kid is going to justify a few games more. Beyond that we are waiting for him SHOW us where he needs to play this year.

  34. digger50 says:

    Mariusz Czerkawski:
    I was watching the game last night on my iPad in bed with the wife sleeping beside me. Right after Connor got the hat trick she woke up randomly and asked me why i was breathing “like Darth Vader”. After which she put her hand on my chest and asked me “why are you so sweaty”

    BECAUSE CONNOR FREAKING MCDAVID BABY!!!!!!!!

    I am really glad her hand didn’t venture further down south, that would have been a little harder to explain….

    Too funny. Too much info, but a good laugh Vader.

  35. Pouzar says:

    oscarmike:
    Nuge looked awesome last night. Just a totally different player. Look like he’s doing it this year being a more offensive player.

    Now if we can keep him playing with men we will be cooking with gas. Let JP and Yam develop in their respective leagues and recall Slepy and we’re gold.

  36. Boil-in-the-Oil says:

    JAG-041:
    McDavid like Neo from the Matrix but in hockey… Insane…

    Excellent metaphor! Neo, yes.

  37. flea says:

    I could see the Oilers sending down Yamamoto after that game. Maybe he gets one more, but a similar performance will definitely send him packing. Hope he tallies a goal before it happens.

  38. dustrock says:

    Couple of other points:

    (1) I thought we were going to get better ice this year at Rogers? 😉

    (2) The Nuge line had that 1 real great possession play in the 3rd that Kassian I felt should have done better with. Real slick.

    T-Mac loves his guys that can move up and down. Kass is one. Jokinen is another. Smart player.

  39. Silver Streak says:

    hunter1909,

    OK I admit to it now and forever more…I was in the depths of listening too much to the negative projections….Hunter , change my number form 93 to 103 same as last year…

  40. BONE207 says:

    OriginalPouzar:
    Hey, Lowetide, looking at the Lowdown lineup, could we get a little more Football and Baseball talk this morning?

    OP…you forgot the /s at the end of your post.

  41. Silver Streak says:

    Professor Q,

    McDavids acceleration matches or beats my 335 BMW xi …..acquisition costs might be tough to carry though

  42. Connoreah says:

    In person, live, McDavid looked legitimately 10% faster than last year. Doesn’t seem possible, but that’s what my eyes told me last night. If he shoots the pill more this year he could be adding another trophy to his take come summer. It’s just not fair for other teams, what he does. Thank God he’s an Oiler.

    Caggiula got a lot of flack during the preseason, but last night I thought he was a pitbull. The guy plays like he’s 6’2 and 220 lb. I’m liking what he brings to the table.

    Klefbom was just wow. Him and Larsson as our top pair brings a giant smile to my face. Perfect match in my opinion.

    Moto is getting a taste but I send him to Spokane as soon as Sleppy is ready to go. Let him tear it up all year in the WHL.

  43. LMHF#1 says:

    Take out the puck around the boards plays and I don’t think they would have allowed a chance against. It’s their only real Achilles heel structure-wise.

    First line was untouchable.

  44. hunter1909 says:

    Silver Streak:
    hunter1909,

    OK I admit to it now and forever more…I was in the depths of listening too much to the negative projections….Hunter , change my number form 93 to 103 same as last year…

    Death March doesn’t have time to change predictions.

    Your prediction is 93 for the 2017-18 season. It will always be 93 for the 2017-18 season.

    Thank you for your cooperation.

  45. Side says:

    It’s kinda sad how I’m still surprised by McDavid’s speed. When I see him skating through open ice with no one around him, like, yeah he looks fast, but it’s not until opposing players come into frame where you truly get to see how fast McDavid is as he makes the opposition look like pylons.

  46. Pouzar says:

    “Everyone was making a big deal about their defence, but how about our defence tonight”.

    –McGord

  47. OriginalPouzar says:

    Pouzar: Now if we can keep him playing with men we will be cooking with gas. Let JP and Yam develop in their respective leagues and recall Slepy and we’re gold.

    I would posit that Yamamoto will be returned to Spokane once Slepy is ready to go – as early as Monday.

    With that said, he may stay for a bit longer as we still have an open roster spot.

  48. Pouzar says:

    OriginalPouzar: I would posit that Yamamoto will be returned to Spokane once Slepy is ready to go – as early as Monday.

    With that said, he may stay for a bit longer as we still have an open roster spot.

    It will be interesting to see how long this goes. They are positioned to get a full fledged hairy assed lineup goin so lets cross our fingers they do the right thing.

  49. jonrmcleod says:

    hunter1909: Death March doesn’t have time to change predictions.

    Your prediction is 93 for the 2017-18 season. It will always be 93 for the 2017-18 season.

    Thank you for your cooperation.

    But the death march does have time to change the deadline for entries.

  50. Thinker says:

    “, lots of smart analytics people have made the call on him, I’m of the belief the game is still slowing down for him and development continues. ”

    Think this highlights the part of the analytics crowd that bugs me. They pick favourites, then hold opinions for as long as possible. Kinda follows the idea of hypothesis testing, but I really don’t think it holds as a good rule in such a flexible field.

  51. Georges says:

    jonrmcleod: But the death march does have time to change the deadline for entries.

    ?!

  52. GBandQ says:

    “Last night, T.J. Brodie, a very good NHL defender, was a house by the side of the road, a witness but not a participant.”

    This is poetry. 🙂

  53. Chachi says:

    Pouzar:
    “, lots of smart analytics people have made the call on him, I’m of the belief the game is still slowing down for him and development continues. ”

    Amen.

    Nurse made the key play to break up a Calgary chance with the net empty that led to the empty net goal. He also had one rush up the ice where he pulled up at Calgary’s blue line and dished off to a forward and it led to a good chance for the Oilers. More of that please.

    Nurse was also physically dominant all game as were the Oilers generally.

    Brouwer is going to feel that hit from Lucic for the rest of the week.

    The Russell/Benning pairing looked way better to my eye than the Fenwicks appear to indicate.

    Nuge and Lucic looked great. I think they will put up a decent amount of points 5v5 together.

    Calgary isn’t going to score much 5v5 on the road where they can’t shelter their “first” line.

    I think Travis Hamonic is broken and the warranty is expired. The Islanders appear to enjoy fleecing the Alberta NHL teams in trades.

    I wonder if Mike Smith wears his helmet when he tries to lure children into his van with candy.

    The hit on Caggiula should result in a suspension for Hathaway, but I would rather he continue to play for the Flames since he is awful and helps them lose. That’s a real vote of confidence for Curtis Lazar that they would rather play plugs like Hathaway and Glass over him.

    Just one game, but that was very encouraging.

  54. linkfromhyrule says:

    Everyone complains about the Oilers being a one line team, but the Oilers seem to be trying to prove that this isn’t such a bad thing if it’s the best line in hockey…

    Thought the 2nd line looked much better with Kassian, but good Gord we could use an honest to goodness 2RW for that line. I find myself wondering if Draisaitl would be a good RW or centre for that line. They could use a driver!

    I couldn’t help but laugh at the commentators discussing how Gaudreau and Monahan were having quiet nights. They played against Mcdavid for most of the game, they barely had the puck!

    I’m trying to relish every second of Mcdavid. He is totally unbelievable, words fail me.

    My GF came in and asked me what the silly grin on my face was for while I was watching the game. Only one reason: MCDAVID BABY!! WOOOOOOT!!!!

  55. jm363561 says:

    Take note:

    A study in Canada discovered that heart rates can more than double when scoring opportunities arise or in the dying minutes of a game, regardless of how passionately a person supports one of the teams.

    Scientists used heart rate monitors on viewers watching ice hockey matches both on television and in the arena. Those watching the games live experienced an average heart rate increase of 110 per cent, while there was a 75 per cent increase for those watching remotely.

    The study, published in the Canadian Journal of Cardiology, advised doctors to warn patients at risk of cardiovascular ill health to be aware of symptoms while watching sport.

  56. Brantford Boy says:

    Great post LT… like you said, if you want to bitch or find a flaw then go nuts..

    Awesome quote from the coach, this was a dominant team performance from the opening face off, WOW!

    Happy to see Kassian get some shifts in the top 6… I think this happens frequently throughout the year…

    Go Oilers! This is going to be fun to watch people…

  57. Decidedly Skeptical Fan says:

    Mariusz Czerkawski:
    I was watching the game last night on my iPad in bed with the wife sleeping beside me. Right after Connor got the hat trick she woke up randomly and asked me why i was breathing “like Darth Vader”. After which she put her hand on my chest and asked me “why are you so sweaty”

    BECAUSE CONNOR FREAKING MCDAVID BABY!!!!!!!!

    I am really glad her hand didn’t venture further down south, that would have been a little harder to explain….

    POY. Post Of the Year. I am not sure I have ever laughed harder. Just about cracked a rib. Thank you sir.

  58. jm363561 says:

    linkfromhyrule</strong

    I couldn’t help but laugh at the commentators discussing how Gaudreau and Monahan were having quiet nights. They played against Mcdavid for most of the game, they barely had the puck.

    ===
    I have a long time friend from my days in Alberta who is a Flames fan. He has been saying for some time that fans are getting increasingly frustrated with both Gaudreau and Monahan's play since they signed their big contracts.

    The Oilers played really well last night but I was surprised how poor Calgary looked, and how easily their forwards were manhandled by our D. Early days.

  59. LMHF#1 says:

    Seen on the way to work this morning: a sign reading “Connor McJesus For Mayor”.

  60. doritogrande says:

    If he consistently finds the time and space to take shots like the one that nearly decapitated Smith… Holy Hell.

    He’s not the first Oiler to try to do this to Mike Smith. https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=-KzrW0VLh70 Seriously, why did he want to come to Alberta?

  61. T3Hunter says:

    Hunter1909, please put me down for 98. Thank you.

  62. jm363561 says:

    I have said it before, that in all the playoff excitement it rather got lost that we went 12-2-1 (or thereabouts) in the last 15 regular season games. I was very optimistic about the coming season until the underwhelming preseason games – and it seems every year we forget they count for very little.

    We are now 13-2-1 (or thereabouts) in our last 16 games. This is starting to look serious.

  63. N64 says:

    jonrmcleod: But the death march does have time to change the deadline for entries.

    Hunter’s policy is that Death gives extensions, but it is final.

  64. SayItAin'tSo, Gretz, SayItAin'tSo! says:

    Couple thoughts:

    1) As I said last night overall that was a dominant game. Excellent work from everyone.

    2) Drai got too cute by half on the PP a couple of times. Just because he you can toy with opposing players doesn’t mean its smart because if you screw up you look like a goof. That 3-1 shorthanded break was all on Drai.

    3) Klefbom is our coveted #1. What a shot.

    4) Give Kailer a couple more games until Shleppy is ready. I’m willing to cut him slack due to the 1st game jitters he no doubt had but he got pushed around a few times which is a tell regarding his strength.

    5) Nuge did not get pushed around and seemed to be flying out there. Excellent.

    6) The “Bruinization” of the Oilers was on full display last night. Calgary didn’t have an answer for the heavy forecheck.

    7) Some quotations: “I’ve never seen a player as long as I’ve been around hockey that gets so many breakaways.” MacLean post game.

    “It’s a one man offense (…) If you’re a defenseman and he gets the angle on you, you’re screwed.” Fridge on the post game.

    Connor McDavid absolutely discombobulated one of the better defensive cores in the league last night. What does he do to team who aren’t in the top 5 when it comes to defensive cores? What does he do to defensemen who are slower or have gap issues?

    Last night we saw the Giant turn into something else. Last year (and TMac said as much in an interview) that Connor still had too much respect for the game, he wasn’t always willing to grab it and run. We’re past that stage with authority now. Last night Connor McDavid imposed himself on the game. Gretzky was losing his mind in his suite after the hat-trick goal.

    dustrock,

    ^ This all day long! Man wouldn’t that be a fun show.

    I got a bit antsy this off-season, started becoming my 2007-2016 Oiler fan self with doubt creepin in. The tightness of the team offered intrigue all off-season though.

    Today I am so freakin excited that I can barely focus on work.

    Its early days, still trying to control myself but it’s getting more and more difficult. If they continue to gel this team could move mountains and nothing will be off limits

    As always we wait.

  65. Woodguy v2.0 says:

    Last night was the best I’ve seen the Oilers play without the puck since Peca and Pronger were on the team.

    They looked very, very well coached.

    McDavid On GF% 100%
    McDavid Off GF% 50%

    McDavid On CF% 67%
    McDavid Off CF% 51%

    That’s a decent start for the Non-McDavids. Could use some goals out of the other 3 lines.

    The best thing about the fancies last night is that there were no score effects.

    The shot share and scoring chance sharing INCREASED as the Oilers built their lead.

    Good start to the season.

    *clapclap*

  66. jake70 says:

    The persuit of the puck to me stood out. I didn’t count but it seemed the Oilers often got to the puck first. …and of course you do less chasing when you have the puck.

  67. McSorley33 says:

    I am with LT – I thought Benning played a great game. Skated extremely well and passed the puck very well. Sometimes Russell can get over matched along with wall and they get hemmed in…but great game by the D overall.

    Nothing wrong with Yams getting over matched either….he earned the spot and has seen NHL action.

    Now, Let him go down and rip up the W.

    If this Kassian kid is given a chance to play with some skill – he may produce some gold. I kind of liked Luc and Kas flanking Nuge.

  68. N64 says:

    It’s a team game but sometimes team members are invisible when the whole team is counting on them.

    Yes Bendelson I’m talking about you last night. You knew full well that Steve Smith, DSF, Frank the Dog, G Backpacker and NYC Money were not around to get us to 1000 posts. Heck, your brother even reminded you:

    http://lowetide.ca/2017/10/04/game-one-2017-18-flames-at-oilers/comment-page-2/#comment-672540

    And you still let us down when we were counting on you to pick up the slack. You can’t expect all of the Pouzars to do it for us.

  69. McSorley33 says:

    Should we start a fund to chip in and fix the ice at Rogers?

  70. Westchester Oil says:

    Silver Streak,

    McDavid’s acceleration beats my Tesla.

  71. Jethro Tull says:

    Woodguy v2.0:
    Last night was the best I’ve seen the Oilers play without the puck since Peca and Pronger were on the team.

    They looked very, very well coached.

    McDavid On GF% 100%
    McDavid Off GF% 50%

    McDavid On CF% 67%
    McDavid Off CF% 51%

    That’s a decent start for the Non-McDavids.Could use some goals out of the other 3 lines.

    The best thing about the fancies last night is that there were no score effects.

    The shot share and scoring chance sharing INCREASED as the Oilers built their lead.

    Good start to the season.

    *clapclap*

    I thought about your posts last night as i watched – i know you have a soft spot for Daryl Sutter’s quote not spending much time in your own zone and keeping sustained pressure in the opponents zone. I was thinking “this is a game WG will enjoy, it seems to me the Oilers are playing the Daryl Sutter way.”

  72. Side says:

    N64:
    You can’t expect all of the Pouzars to do it for us.

    Ha. Nice.

    But why not? OP says he pretty much never sleeps anywho.

  73. who says:

    Thinker:
    “, lots of smart analytics people have made the call on him, I’m of the belief the game is still slowing down for him and development continues. ”

    Think this highlights the part of the analytics crowd that bugs me. They pick favourites, then hold opinions for as long as possible. Kinda follows the idea of hypothesis testing, but I really don’t think it holds as a good rule in such a flexible field.

    This is so true.
    I really don’t even want to argue with any analytics people anymore. It’s pretty much pointless. I have come to the conclusion that they really don’t process the game visually very well, or at all, so we wind up arguing about apples vs oranges.
    It’s almost like they can’t form an opinion until they have checked the stats sheet after the game.

  74. N64 says:

    Side: Ha. Nice.

    But why not? OP says he pretty much never sleeps

    ~ If he wasn’t so busy in the exercise room with Dallas and Andrew he could do more. ~

  75. McNuge93 says:

    dustrock:
    LT by eye I thought Russell-Benning had a bit of a rocky 2nd, though I haven’t checked the stats to see if that’s backed up by the numbers.

    Certainly the entire group locked down in the 3rd and continued to push.

    I get that it’s Game 1, but compared to Game 1 a year ago, with all the nerves and expectations, they seem like a different team.

    I hate to use the word “seasoned” unless it involves food, but it looks like the Edmonton Oilers are seasoned after the playoffs.

    Yes it helps having basically the same lineup, the same coach and a coach the team believes in and listens to and lastly the confidence of a good season last year. It is so nice to be a fan of a well managed deep team rather than their circus acts of the past.

  76. OriginalPouzar says:

    McSorley33:
    I am with LT – I thought Benning played a great game. Skated extremely well and passed the puck very well. Sometimes Russell can get over matched along with walland they get hemmed in…but great game by the D overall.

    Nothing wrong with Yams getting over matched either….he earned the spot and has seen NHL action.

    Now, Let him go down and rip up the W.

    If this Kassian kid is given a chance to play with some skill – he may produce some gold. I kind of liked Luc and Kas flanking Nuge.

    I like Kass on the fourth line but getting spotted up the lineup here and there.

    Allows Letestu to keep his ES minutes down and Kass to still get material minutes and some opportunities on skilled lines.

  77. N64 says:

    who: This is so true.
    I really don’t even want to argue with any analytics people anymore. It’s pretty much pointless. I have come to started with the conclusion that they really don’t process the game visually very well, or at all, so we wind up arguing about apples vs oranges.
    It’s almost like they can’t form an opinion until they have checked the stats sheet after the game.

    FTFY

  78. OriginalPouzar says:

    Side: Ha. Nice.

    But why not? OP says he pretty much never sleeps anywho.

    I’m so tired today – 11:15 to 3:45 sleeping.

    No worries, back in bed at 9:45 tonight and we’ll sleep in until 3:55 tomorrow morning.

    Full catch up coming on Monday – full day off the gym (may do some low intensity cardio) but, after I get up to feed the dog around 6, I’m going back to bed until 8ish – going to be great!

  79. OriginalPouzar says:

    N64: ~ If he wasn’t so busy in the exercise room with Dallas and Andrew he could do more. ~

    I did think about joining that November Project or whatever Ference is a part of when I’m up in Edmonton but never did. I’m pretty regimented with the focus on heavy weights – the bootcamp shit isn’t really my style although its fine every once in a while.

  80. hunter1909 says:

    jonrmcleod: But the death march does have time to change the deadline for entries.

    Thank you for commenting. Please feel free to send all Death March comments/questions to:

    hunter2909@safe-mail.net

    Thank you for your cooperation.

  81. Jethro Tull says:

    N64,

    I will always have time for that young man.

  82. russ99 says:

    It’s only one game, and we have miles to go, but it really seemed to me that the team soaked up the lessons of their playoff experience last season and applied it to a regular season game.

    There’s no limit to this team if that continues.

  83. digger50 says:

    N64:
    Might have been posted already, but wide open Yak interview:

    https://www.milehighhockey.com/2017/10/1/16390420/nail-yakupov-nail-yakupov-interview-translation-russia-hockey-khl

    Thanks for the link, good interview. Hope this will be his year to break out and establish himself as an NHLer.

  84. ashley says:

    So Jagr in Calgary. Old news, I know.

    I remember some here were talking about him as a free agent 6 years ago, but we thought he was too old at age 39.

    What a remarkable career. I wish we could have signed him, but we have too much depth now. Oilers 2008-2015 could have used him though.

  85. soup says:

    Hunter,
    Thanks for doing this again. Good fun. Please put me in for 107.

    Question – can I donate a decent bottle of something for the winner? Might be interesting to have something hanging on the outcome.

  86. ashley says:

    Talbot made some amazing saves last night to keep it 1-0. The Flames were starting to gamble a bit which opened up the ice for the 2-0 goal. And of course the 3-0 goal was EN. So the score flatters us quite a bit. If Talbot didn’t save that point blank Monahan chance, I think it was anybody’s game.

    On the other hand, we did carry the play for most of the night. Smith was lights out.

  87. Klima's_Bucket says:

    hunter1909,

    90 points good sir.
    Hope I’m wrong…

  88. Bag of Pucks says:

    Connor is so brilliant, he may blind us a tad to the more subtle, but no less sublime, play of Leon.

    Two spot on passes from ‘Panzer’ last night on the 1st and 3rd goals.

    And what a beaut to watch the Calgary D bouncing off him along the boards.

  89. Chachi says:

    ashley: So the score flatters us quite a bit.

    We have different definitions of “flatters” and “quite” and “bit”. Shots in the third period were 16-5.

  90. Klef-Bombs says:

    Long time reader, but first time poster. I was at the game last night (my first Battle of Alberta!) and thought I would share a few thoughts.

    – Connor freakin McDavid! He is faster this year, no question in my mind. I was sitting behind the Flames net for his second goal, and watching him carry the puck from his own end, absolutely blow past Brodie, and bury the puck top-shelf, all while making it look so effortless is a memory I will treasure for the rest of my life. Thank you hockey gods!

    – I am pretty firmly in the “Play Drai at Center” camp, but watching last night, it is impossible to fault T-Mac for running him RW with McDavid and Maroon. I cant remember the last time I saw a line look so completely dominant for an entire game.

    – Klefbom is a stud. Damn shame he didnt cash one last night. If plays like he did last night for a full season, he will be in the Norris conversation. And my buddies thought I was crazy taking Klef in the 8th round of our 6-team fantasy league 😛

    – Nuge looked excellent to my eye, skated miles and made some nice plays at both ends of the ice. He will put up some decent numbers this year if they can figure out his linemates.

    – Seen some verbal that Lucic played well, I would have to disagree. I saw far too many times where the play just died on his stick. The only time I saw him good was on the empty net goal, from getting the puck out to crunching Brouwer into next week. Aside from that, poor game. Hoping he finds his groove as the season progresses.

    – Benning stood out to me last night as well. Lots of plays where he won possession and settled things down in the Oilers zone, and got the puck moving north effectively. Russell was largely invisible on that pairing, which I would count as a plus.

    – Noticed a little bit of wobble at times from Nurse in his own zone, but I would agree that the game is starting to slow down for him. He was physical, positioned himself well most of the time, and made some smart plays with the puck. I loved his pokecheck in front of the net just before the empty-net goal. Perfect positioning to break up the pass, and a smart, heads-up play to get his stick in the way. Also a good sign that T-Mac was willing to put Nurse on the ice in the final minute with the extra attacker on IMO.

    – Keeping in mind it was his first game, and pressure/jitters were likely through the roof, I was a little disappointed Yamamoto didnt do more. He was largely invisible the entire game, deferred a lot to Nuge/Lucic. That line looked much better when Kassian got bumped up for the third. Still hope to see a few more games for Yamamoto, before he goes and tears up the Dub.

    – I was very impressed with how the Oilers played in the third period. Score effects be damned, instead of sitting back and trying to play it safe, kill the clock, and preserve the shutout for Talbot, they kept the pedal to the metal and gave the Flames absolutely nothing. Really impressive way to set the mentality for the season in a close opening game.

    – As much as it loathes me to say it, Mike Smith looked very good in net for Calgary. This game could have easily been 10-0 if not for some big saves from him. Especially after taking that rocket from Klef off the head. Credit where it is due.

    All in all, really impressive win to start the season. Really impressed with how the D played, and they will only get better once Sekera comes back. Only change I would like to see is a more offensively effective RW on the Nuge-Lucic line, so that Lucic doesnt have to be so involved in carrying the puck up ice. I would love to see Caggiula on that line.

    Finally, to wrap up, just want to give a huge, heartfelt thanks to Lowetide for running this page. I was introduced to this corner of the Al Gore about 5 years ago, and have been a daily reader since. I love the no-nonsense approach to taking an honest look at the team, and am forever grateful for the time and effort you put into this site. Many thanks!

  91. knighttown says:

    Goal #2 started with a routine loose puck at his own goalline. It wasn’t a blatant turnover where everyone was heading north while he was heading south. He somehow got a breakaway against a full team of NHLers in proper position. That isn’t possible. There are little 100 times in a hockey game where he’ll get the puck in a more dangerous position than that. How may generate 20 scoring chances a game if he can generate a Grade A off that.

  92. knighttown says:

    knighttown:
    Goal #2 started with a routine loose puck at his own goalline.It wasn’t a blatant turnover where everyone was heading north while he was heading south.He somehow got a breakaway against a full team of NHLers in proper position.That isn’t possible.There are little 100 times in a hockey game where he’ll get the puck in a more dangerous position than that.How may generate 20 scoring chances a game if he can generate a Grade A off that.

    In some ways the Flames are a perfect matchup because there strength is along the blueline. Ironically, the quality of the defenseman doesn’t matter (much) because, with a head of steam, he’s going around any of them. It’s like having a great secondary in a matchup against Emmitt Smith and those great Cowboys offensive lines. Sure, good cornerbacks won’t hurt but it isn’t the best matchup.

    What McDavid has struggled against are the teams with fast and rough centres who will devote the entirety of every shift into preventing him from ever getting the puck with speed. Don’t forget what Nazem Kadri did. Don’t forget what Ryan Kesler (spits) did.

    I guarantee every coach saw last night and won’t make the same mistake. The “McDavid Rules” era, where teams play a completely different game against the Oilers than they have against any player in the past 30 years, may begin as early as Saturday.

  93. Woodguy v2.0 says:

    Jethro Tull: I thought about your posts last night as i watched – i know you have a soft spot for Daryl Sutter’s quote not spending much time in your own zone and keeping sustained pressure in the opponents zone.I was thinking “this is a game WG will enjoy, it seems to me the Oilers are playing the Daryl Sutter way.”

    Absolutely.

  94. who says:

    Don’t know if Lucic is faster or not but I saw him back check though the neutral zone in the third period and my first thought was, wow, he is really moving. Never saw him move that fast last year.

  95. Chachi says:

    knighttown: In some ways the Flames are a perfect matchup because there strength is along the blueline.Ironically, the quality of the defenseman doesn’t matter (much) because, with a head of steam, he’s going around any of them.It’s like having a great secondary in a matchup against Emmitt Smith and those great Cowboys offensive lines.Sure, good cornerbacks won’t hurt but it isn’t the best matchup.

    What McDavid has struggled against are the teams with fast and rough centres who will devote the entirety of every shift into preventing him from ever getting the puck with speed.Don’t forget what Nazem Kadri did.Don’t forget what Ryan Kesler (spits) did.

    I guarantee every coach saw last night and won’t make the same mistake. The “McDavid Rules” era, where teams play a completely different game against the Oilers than they have against any player in the past 30 years, may begin as early as Saturday.

    Good point.

  96. Oilin4 says:

    Observations of last nights game

    1. Holy fucking McDavid

    2. Talbot deserves more credit for doing his job as well as it could be done. If the Flames make it 1-1 on any of their lesser chances, closer game, though we still likely win it.

    3. Can we lay to rest this notion that the Flames have the best D in the league? Gio and Hamilton were great but that second pairing was owned by multiple lines and embarrassed by McDavid. Anaheim, Nashville, and other D corps would not be so easily dominated.

    4. Can we lay to rest any notion of the Flames being better than the Oilers? Woodguy posted a checklist comparing line v line that seemed convincing. But our top line and goalie are WAY better than their equivalents, and their top D is only a little better than ours. If you do a checklist it seems close, but when you look at the magnitude of how much better our strengths are it isn’t even. Edmonton’s best 6 man unit is miles better than Calgary’s best 6 man unit any day. The rest of the roster is pretty equivalent between the two teams.

  97. OriginalPouzar says:

    Klef-Bombs:
    Long time reader, but first time poster. I was at the game last night (my first Battle of Alberta!) and thought I would share a few thoughts.

    – Connor freakin McDavid! He is faster this year, no question in my mind. I was sitting behind the Flames net for his second goal, and watching him carry the puck from his own end, absolutely blow past Brodie, and bury the puck top-shelf, all while making it look so effortless is a memory I will treasure for the rest of my life. Thank you hockey gods!

    – I am pretty firmly in the “Play Drai at Center” camp, but watching last night, it is impossible to fault T-Mac for running him RW with McDavid and Maroon. I cant remember the last time I saw a line look so completely dominant for an entire game.

    – Klefbom is a stud. Damn shame he didnt cash one last night. If plays like he did last night for a full season, he will be in the Norris conversation. And my buddies thought I was crazy taking Klef in the 8th round of our 6-team fantasy league

    – Nuge looked excellent to my eye, skated miles and made some nice plays at both ends of the ice. He will put up some decent numbers this year if they can figure out his linemates.

    – Seen some verbal that Lucic played well, I would have to disagree. I saw far too many times where the play just died on his stick. The only time I saw him good was on the empty net goal, from getting the puck out to crunching Brouwer into next week. Aside from that, poor game. Hoping he finds his groove as the season progresses.

    – Benning stood out to me last night as well. Lots of plays where he won possession and settled things down in the Oilers zone, and got the puck moving north effectively. Russell was largely invisible on that pairing, which I would count as a plus.

    – Noticed a little bit of wobble at times from Nurse in his own zone, but I would agree that the game is starting to slow down for him. He was physical, positioned himself well most of the time, and made some smart plays with the puck. I loved his pokecheck in front of the net just before the empty-net goal. Perfect positioning to break up the pass, and a smart, heads-up play to get his stick in the way. Also a good sign that T-Mac was willing to put Nurse on the ice in the final minute with the extra attacker on IMO.

    – Keeping in mind it was his first game, and pressure/jitters were likely through the roof, I was a little disappointed Yamamoto didnt do more. He was largely invisible the entire game, deferred a lot to Nuge/Lucic. That line looked much better when Kassian got bumped up for the third. Still hope to see a few more games for Yamamoto, before he goes and tears up the Dub.

    – I was very impressed with how the Oilers played in the third period. Score effects be damned, instead of sitting back and trying to play it safe, kill the clock, and preserve the shutout for Talbot, they kept the pedal to the metal and gave the Flames absolutely nothing. Really impressive way to set the mentality for the season in a close opening game.

    – As much as it loathes me to say it, Mike Smith looked very good in net for Calgary. This game could have easily been 10-0 if not for some big saves from him. Especially after taking that rocket from Klef off the head. Credit where it is due.

    All in all, really impressive win to start the season. Really impressed with how the D played, and they will only get better once Sekera comes back. Only change I would like to see is a more offensively effective RW on the Nuge-Lucic line, so that Lucic doesnt have to be so involved in carrying the puck up ice. I would love to see Caggiula on that line.

    Finally, to wrap up, just want to give a huge, heartfelt thanks to Lowetide for running this page. I was introduced to this corner of the Al Gore about 5 years ago, and have been a daily reader since. I love the no-nonsense approach to taking an honest look at the team, and am forever grateful for the time and effort you put into this site. Many thanks!

    Great post – welcome to posting world.

  98. Woodguy v2.0 says:

    knighttown:
    Goal #2 started with a routine loose puck at his own goalline.It wasn’t a blatant turnover where everyone was heading north while he was heading south.He somehow got a breakaway against a full team of NHLers in proper position.That isn’t possible.There are little 100 times in a hockey game where he’ll get the puck in a more dangerous position than that.How may generate 20 scoring chances a game if he can generate a Grade A off that.

    My tweet after that play:

    “That’s just not fair. I love it.”

    You nailed.

    Not a broken play.

    No Flames really didn’t do anything wrong. They just couldn’t do anything to stop him.

    Best line I read about that play:

    “That was like watching a Timbits and one kid already has 2 years of skating lessons and the other kids are just learning”

    No words will ever do that play justice.

  99. Woogie63 says:

    In my neighbourhood Conner would have got a speeding ticket!

  100. dustrock says:

    Oilin4:
    Observations of last nights game

    1. Holy fucking McDavid

    2. Talbot deserves more credit for doing his job as well as it could be done. If the Flames make it 1-1 on any of their lesser chances, closer game, though we still likely win it.

    3. Can we lay to rest this notion that the Flames have the best D in the league? Gio and Hamilton were great but that second pairing was owned by multiple lines and embarrassed by McDavid. Anaheim, Nashville, and other D corps would not be so easily dominated.

    4. Can we lay to rest any notion of the Flames being better than the Oilers? Woodguy posted a checklist comparing line v line that seemed convincing. But our top line and goalie are WAY better than their equivalents, and their top D is only a little better than ours. If you do a checklist it seems close, but when you look at the magnitude of how much better our strengths are it isn’t even. Edmonton’s best 6 man unit is miles better than Calgary’s best 6 man unit any day. The rest of the roster is pretty equivalent between the two teams.

    Gaudreau flatters to deceive. Zero shots in the Battle of Alberta.

  101. jtblack says:

    That is supposed to be one of the best D Core’s in the NHL and as All of you have pointed out; they had NO answer for Connor.

    Also thought the Oilers played a HEAVY game. PC has transformed this roster and they man handled Calgary.

    Hope they bring it again Sat!

    Guess none of the PC haters are posting today???

  102. SayItAin'tSo, Gretz, SayItAin'tSo! says:

    knighttown,

    Fair points but three rebuttals.

    1) What Kesler did in the playoffs was take a series of penalties that went uncalled. I don’t think the NHL is looking for that short of play and I will expect the men in striped shirts to call it when they see it.

    2) The rush goal was amazing but don’t forget the grind them to a pulp shifts that line also had. I’ll take Maroon-McD-Drai down low in the o-zone against Kadri and Co. any day of the week.

    3) Those things happened last year not this year. This year Connor won’t put up with that shit.

  103. jtblack says:

    ashley,

    I actually beliieve the score last night flattered Calgary. Shots, SA, Quality chances – W/O Smith this could have easily been a 5 or 6 Goal debacle

  104. Kinger_Oil.redux says:

    N64: Fresh legs for a team worn down by the grind of a long pre-season.

    – Jagr will be better than any of our RW, I’ve been assured, in terms of hockey. (excluding Drai)

  105. N64 says:

    jtblack: Guess none of the PC haters are posting today???

    Overheard in the PC haters clubhouse last night:

    “They caught us on an off night. It’s going to be a long plane ride home”.

  106. OriginalPouzar says:

    Looks like Fillip Berglund had the primary assist on the winning goal in a 3-2 win.

    Lagesson played today as well – no points in a 4-1 win.

    Don’t know anything beyond looking at the boxscores – perhaps Swedish Poster will provide more awesome information as he does.

  107. Woodguy v2.0 says:

    Kinger_Oil.redux: – Jagr will be better than any of our RW, I’ve been assured, in terms of hockey.(excluding Drai)

    Ready to set out the parameters of the bet?

  108. PaperDesigner says:

    About feeling that you can’t argue with analytics people:

    Some people who are into analytics can get stubborn. This is true of all sorts of people, though, and I don’t think that they’re disproportionately worse at this than the rest of the population. I think the disconnect is that people who are into analytics have accepted that their eyes are deceptive, which is true. Deceptive is different than always wrong, but I think most analytics people are actually more open minded than average, because none of us started with calculus textbooks in the crib. We all started by watching the game. At some point, they were evaluating only with their eyes, and then had to change their mind to believe in analytics as a better way.

    The problem is that they’ve already seen evidence that the raw eye cannot be fully trusted, so if you hold the position that Kris Russell is actually a top four NHL defenceman or Darnel Nurse is going to be a very good player, well, they’re looking for data that supports that conclusion.

    I’m semi-illiterate in them, but I’m a believer in analytics, because it’s basically just the scientific process applied to sports. So speak their language. The scientific approach is interested in all physical phenomenon, including our perceptions of the game. So a valid question, which analytics might help shed some light on, is why do I perceive player A to be much better than their possession metrics indicate?

    Ideally, the answer is not “my eyes tell the truth, watch the game, numbers nerd!”, but rather, “what accounts for the discrepancy between my eyes and the implication of certain metrics?” If you’re truly open minded, you will have to conclude that it’s possible your eyes are seeing something that isn’t there, or overvaluing something that doesn’t have much positive impact on winning (physicality, apparent effort, or perceived grit). But again, if you’re open minded, you have to be open to the possibility that further analysis will shed some light that will change conclusions.

    So if you say something like, “Kris Russell looks to me to be an effective defenceman. Now, I am not trying to overstate things, I don’t see him as a first pairing guy, but I think he can play the second pairing on the left side on a winning team and not be a drag. I understand his possession numbers are not great, but is there something that they are not capturing? When he’s on the ice, I think he plays an effective positional game and seems to limit the quality of the chances against. Could he be making up for the lack of possession time while he is on the ice by reducing the likelihood overall that the other team will score? How confident are we that we can measure the average shot quality for a player like Russell against the NHL average?” I think the conversation will fare a lot better.

    It’s a hypothesis formed by the eyes, but it is testable by analytics in the long run, IMO. The beauty of science is that it can make a reversal on its conclusions, it can change its mind, with the arrival of better theories and new data. Any analytics person worth their salt would respond to the above question fairly, and probably talk as much as they can about the specific proposition in question (measuring shot quality, seeing whether Russell is effective at driving the shot quality of the other team down). If the analytics person in question, however, responds with something akin to “possession metrics are the gold standard, Kris Russell sucks by them, therefore he is certifiably guaranteed a bad player” then you’re talking to a bit of a bad apple, IMO, because they’re not open to new evidence, they are being stubborn on their favoured existing model. That’s not a very good scientific attitude. At worst, the response should be, “every metric I know that seems to drive winning points in a bad direction on Kris Russell, and I think the case is overwhelming that he is not a very good player, but who knows, maybe there’s something the data hasn’t captured yet.”

  109. hunter1909 says:

    soup:
    Hunter,
    Thanks for doing this again. Good fun. Please put me in for 107.

    Question – can I donate a decent bottle of something for the winner?Might be interesting to have something hanging on the outcome.

    Thank you for your interest.

    Please feel free to send all Death March questions to:

    hunter2909@safe-mail.net

    Thank you for your cooperation.

  110. hunter1909 says:

    N64: Overheard in the PC haters locker room last night:

    “They caught us on an off night. It’s going to be a long plane ride home”.

    Overheard in the Visitor’s dressing room last night:

    “We’re going to need a bigger boat”.

  111. Bank Shot says:

    Cagguila got robbed of a goal last night.

    Almost went five hole. Smith was lucky it got wedged in there sonehow then got a quick whistle when it came loose.

  112. PaperDesigner says:

    Woodguy v2.0,

    Hey Woodguy, I have a question for you, if you don’t mind.

    Like I said, I am only semi-literate in terms of anlaytics. I know a bit about the posession metrics, understand some variants of corsi and fenwick, but not much.

    I’d like to think I’m fairly bright, but please try to keep it on my level if you can.

    I’ll try the “write each sentence as its own paragraph” style, in your honour.

    Writing the above post actually got me thinking about Kris Russell’s case in particular. Is he THAT bad?

    He doesn’t look awful by eye. He looks fine when I watch him. Traditional hockey people agree.

    But a lot of the analytics crowd is dead set against him.

    What I find interesting is that the Oilers are a bit of a black box when it comes to analytics. Chiarelli claims to be a believer, but is very secretive about what metrics he values.

    So my question is twofold. One, what could be the Oilers looking at that would lead them to value Russell enough to give him the big contract that they did?

    Secondly, by pure possession metrics, the case seems to be fairly open and shut that Russel is overvalued. But are there any metrics, either current or potential, that might vindicate Russel as actually being at least an acceptable second pairing defenceman?

    Understand if you don’t want to reply. I post occasionally, but I am not really well known around here.

  113. Litke 94 says:

    I posted this on Twitter, but felt the need to reiterate it here.

    McDavid hit 26 MPH on his second goal last night. An average standardbred racehorse travels its first quarter of a mile in a race at ~30 MPH.

    Connor at top speed is just a touch off of that of a racehorse. I just shake my head at the ridiculousness of that statement.

  114. Kinger_Oil.redux says:

    Woodguy v2.0: Ready to set out the parameters of the bet?

    – You seem dicky about it to be honest: suggesting putting money in escrow, because your so legit you need to validate your findings, and are so big time.

    – Like your not doing it in the spirit of fun, rather to just crush a different opinion because you are so smart type of thing, and your omnipotence deserves to be respected by threat of big-boy bets

    – Here’s what I think:

    1) Jagr scores +/- 8 even strength goals this year
    2) Kassian is within that range
    3) some combo of Pulji/Sleppy/Yammer/Cags score at least this amount on the same role

    – I think the Oil will be fine on the RW side, and the consensus will be “glad we didn’t sign Jagr”

    – My read from you is: “Jagr is better than any RW on our roster this year. Chia is a moron to not of hired him”

    – I think you think that RW is a big weakness on this team, and that moron failed by not signing Jagr: I think that by the end of the year, our wingers will score plenty and be at least as effective (not to mention develop one more year)

    – And Drai, as a winger, I’m happy to take away from the conversation, but that’s silly, because he’s an awesome RW when he plays with McD.

    – I’m happy to find a fun wager, to donate to this great site about Jagr vs our wingers, in terms of actual goals, and actual points, based on Jagr’s performance this year vs our roster

  115. OriginalPouzar says:

    OriginalPouzar:
    Looks like Fillip Berglund had the primary assist on the winning goal in a 3-2 win.

    Lagesson played today as well – no points in a 4-1 win.

    Don’t know anything beyond looking at the boxscores – perhaps Swedish Poster will provide more awesome information as he does.

    Sorry, I was wrong – the game is on-going.

  116. N64 says:

    PaperDesigner:
    Woodguy v2.0,

    Hey Woodguy, I have a question for you, if you don’t mind.

    Like I said, I am only semi-literate in terms of anlaytics. I know a bit about the posession metrics, understand some variants of corsi and fenwick, but not much.

    I’d like to think I’m fairly bright, but please try to keep it on my level if you can.

    I’ll try the “write each sentence as its own paragraph” style, in your honour.

    Writing the above post actually got me thinking about Kris Russell’s case in particular. Is he THAT bad?

    He doesn’t look awful by eye. He looks fine when I watch him. Traditional hockey people agree.

    But a lot of the analytics crowd is dead set against him.

    What I find interesting is that the Oilers are a bit of a black box when it comes to analytics. Chiarelli claims to be a believer, but is very secretive about what metrics he values.

    So my question is twofold. One, what could be the Oilers looking at that would lead them to value Russell enough to give him the big contract that they did?

    Secondly, by pure possession metrics, the case seems to be fairly open and shut that Russel is overvalued. But are there any metrics, either current or potential, that might vindicate Russel as actually being at least an acceptable second pairing defenceman?

    Understand if you don’t want to reply. I post occasionally, but I am not really well known around here.

    While you wait for Woodguy, Russel tends to suppress offense for both sides when he’s on the ice. That does show up in the stats. It also shows up in the cherry picking.

    If I’m a coach there are game situations where I want to give more time to a guy that does that. Football coaches run more when they want to “shorten” the game. Deploying Russel seems to have that effect.

  117. Kinger_Oil.redux says:

    – This coach seems like a real dick:

    Kailer Yamamoto’s mom, dad and sister were in the house for his first NHL game Wednesday, but his brother Keanu wasn’t able to make it.

    “He’s got a game tomorrow (McGill University). He asked his coach if he could come and he (coach) said no. That’s OK,” shrugged Yamamoto, who was in the opening lineup.

  118. Woodguy v2.0 says:

    PaperDesigner,

    Understand if you don’t want to reply. I post occasionally, but I am not really well known around here.

    Posting frequency doesn’t matter to me.

    I’ll answer the best I can.

    I’m running around right now and don’t have everything at my fingertips that I would normally want.

    Writing the above post actually got me thinking about Kris Russell’s case in particular. Is he THAT bad?
    He doesn’t look awful by eye. He looks fine when I watch him. Traditional hockey people agree.
    But a lot of the analytics crowd is dead set against him.

    Traditional hockey people like Stauffer and Spector call Russell a “4/5” Dman. I agree with that.

    He’s a career 48% Fenwick (corsi but doesn’t count the blocked shots) and 51% GF. Plays better on 3rd pair than 2nd. Plays better on left side than right.

    Some people like Matt Hendrson go way too far in their assessment of players and then everyone who uses fancystats gets tarred with the same brush.

    Think of it this way: 2 economists can look at the data and come to two different conclusions about what cause/effect of the data is, same with fancystats people but even moreso.

    The disconnect is that if “hockey guys” and “fancy stats” agree that he’s a 4/5 then $4MM x 4 is an overpay even if there is an escape route in year 4.

    So my question is twofold. One, what could be the Oilers looking at that would lead them to value Russell enough to give him the big contract that they did?

    They mostly look at in-house scoring chances. They count how many times a player helps create them and how many times a player helps stop them.

    They don’t seem to consider the rate at which for/against happen with different players on the ice.

    Secondly, by pure possession metrics, the case seems to be fairly open and shut that Russel is overvalued. But are there any metrics, either current or potential, that might vindicate Russel as actually being at least an acceptable second pairing defenceman?

    If he’s on the left side he’s ok on 2nd pair, but needs a better than average partner imo. Probably shouldn’t play 2nd pair on the right on a good team.

    Russell shows much better when using Fenwick and DFF (Dangerous Fenwick) and I think those metrics describe play better than corsi. Corsi is best to figure out who has the puck more.

  119. knighttown says:

    PaperDesigner:
    About feeling that you can’t argue with analytics people:

    Some people who are into analytics can get stubborn. This is true of all sorts of people, though, and I don’t think that they’re disproportionately worse at this than the rest of the population. I think the disconnect is that people who are into analytics have accepted that their eyes are deceptive, which is true. Deceptive is different than always wrong, but I think most analytics people are actually more open minded than average, because none of us started with calculus textbooks in the crib. We all started by watching the game. At some point, they were evaluating only with their eyes, and then had to change their mind to believe in analytics as a better way.

    The problem is that they’ve already seen evidence that the raw eye cannot be fully trusted, so if you hold the position that Kris Russell is actually a top four NHL defenceman or Darnel Nurse is going to be a very good player, well, they’re looking for data that supports that conclusion.

    I’m semi-illiterate in them, but I’m a believer in analytics, because it’s basically just the scientific process applied to sports. So speak their language. The scientific approach is interested in all physical phenomenon, including our perceptions of the game. So a valid question, which analytics might help shed some light on, is why do I perceive player A to be much better than their possession metrics indicate?

    Ideally, the answer is not “my eyes tell the truth, watch the game, numbers nerd!”, but rather, “what accounts for the discrepancy between my eyes and the implication of certain metrics?” If you’re truly open minded, you will have to conclude that it’s possible your eyes are seeing something that isn’t there, or overvaluing something that doesn’t have much positive impact on winning (physicality, apparent effort, or perceived grit). But again, if you’re open minded, you have to be open to the possibility that further analysis will shed some light that will change conclusions.

    So if you say something like, “Kris Russell looks to me to be an effective defenceman. Now, I am not trying to overstate things, I don’t see him as a first pairing guy, but I think he can play the second pairing on the left side on a winning team and not be a drag. I understand his possession numbers are not great, but is there something that they are not capturing? When he’s on the ice, I think he plays an effective positional game and seems to limit the quality of the chances against. Could he be making up for the lack of possession time while he is on the ice by reducing the likelihood overall that the other team will score? How confident are we that we can measure the average shot quality for a player like Russell against the NHL average?” I think the conversation will fare a lot better.

    It’s a hypothesis formed by the eyes, but it is testable by analytics in the long run, IMO. The beauty of science is that it can make a reversal on its conclusions, it can change its mind, with the arrival of better theories and new data. Any analytics person worth their salt would respond to the above question fairly, and probably talk as much as they can about the specific proposition in question (measuring shot quality, seeing whether Russell is effective at driving the shot quality of the other team down). If the analytics person in question, however, responds with something akin to “possession metrics are the gold standard, Kris Russell sucks by them, therefore he is certifiably guaranteed a bad player” then you’re talking to a bit of a bad apple, IMO, because they’re not open to new evidence, they are being stubborn on their favoured existing model. That’s not a very good scientific attitude. At worst, the response should be, “every metric I know that seems to drive winning points in a bad direction on Kris Russell, and I think the case is overwhelming that he is not a very good player, but who knows, maybe there’s something the data hasn’t captured yet.”

    And it all depends on how you value shot blocks. Corsi effectively treats shot blocks as a negative counting as “1” just like a shot on net. Fenwick treats shot blocking as a skill and therefore a shot block is a “0” on the count sheet.

    A major shot blocker like Kris Russell therefore will look much better by Fenwick (or actual shots on goal +/-) than he will be Corsi. So to your original question, yes, those who highly value shot blocking could find an argument FOR Kris Russell.

    So you KNOW Russell will have a brutal Corsi and you can make the argument that he has a poor Corsi because he blocks so many shots and shot blocking is a skill.

    But the thing is, his Fenwick isn’t generally hot shit either. Of his last 5 full years his BEST Fenwick year was last year at 49.2%. So even if you DO think highly of shot blocking he still can be counted on to be on the ice for more unblocked shot attempts AGAINST than FOR every season.

    His other argued strength is that he may let a lot of shot attempts occur when he’s defending but the quality of these shot attempts is poor. i.e. he’s a strong Wood Money dangerous shot attempt suppressor. I think he had the best on ice GF/GA of any Oiler dman last year.

    And finally he’s considered to be poor at preventing zone entries and the theory is that his team spends a lot of time in its own end because of this. Advocates would argue that it’s “safe” time and opponents would argue that the more time in that end of the ice increases the risk of something bad happening. Wheat and Oil has some stuff on zone entries prevented that might back this up.

    And as N64 says, he almost certainly suppresses offense-for while on the ice maybe partly because he’s played on his wrong side.

    (EDIT: see Woodguy responded. Listen to him!)

  120. The Trade Guy says:

    Jethro Tull:
    Don’t worry Flames fans, I’m sure the speed Jagr will inject into your lineup will make the difference.

    I have it on good authority that Jagr told Treliving that his team is terrible and then gave him a diamond cutter right through a table and took his flames jersey off and laid it on top of Brad’s inert body.

  121. The Trade Guy says:

    And then Jagr “too-sweeted” Maroon in the hallway before vacating arena.

  122. Professor Q says:

    The Trade Guy:
    And then Jagr “too-sweeted” Maroon in the hallway before vacating arena.

    I do wonder if he’s thinking about if he should have pressed Edmonton a bit more to sign him? I mean I know Chia said he never talked to Jagr but you know how those things go…

  123. who says:

    PaperDesigner:
    About feeling that you can’t argue with analytics people:

    Some people who are into analytics can get stubborn. This is true of all sorts of people, though, and I don’t think that they’re disproportionately worse at this than the rest of the population. I think the disconnect is that people who are into analytics have accepted that their eyes are deceptive, which is true. Deceptive is different than always wrong, but I think most analytics people are actually more open minded than average, because none of us started with calculus textbooks in the crib. We all started by watching the game. At some point, they were evaluating only with their eyes, and then had to change their mind to believe in analytics as a better way.

    The problem is that they’ve already seen evidence that the raw eye cannot be fully trusted, so if you hold the position that Kris Russell is actually a top four NHL defenceman or Darnel Nurse is going to be a very good player, well, they’re looking for data that supports that conclusion.

    I’m semi-illiterate in them, but I’m a believer in analytics, because it’s basically just the scientific process applied to sports. So speak their language. The scientific approach is interested in all physical phenomenon, including our perceptions of the game. So a valid question, which analytics might help shed some light on, is why do I perceive player A to be much better than their possession metrics indicate?

    Ideally, the answer is not “my eyes tell the truth, watch the game, numbers nerd!”, but rather, “what accounts for the discrepancy between my eyes and the implication of certain metrics?” If you’re truly open minded, you will have to conclude that it’s possible your eyes are seeing something that isn’t there, or overvaluing something that doesn’t have much positive impact on winning (physicality, apparent effort, or perceived grit). But again, if you’re open minded, you have to be open to the possibility that further analysis will shed some light that will change conclusions.

    So if you say something like, “Kris Russell looks to me to be an effective defenceman. Now, I am not trying to overstate things, I don’t see him as a first pairing guy, but I think he can play the second pairing on the left side on a winning team and not be a drag. I understand his possession numbers are not great, but is there something that they are not capturing? When he’s on the ice, I think he plays an effective positional game and seems to limit the quality of the chances against. Could he be making up for the lack of possession time while he is on the ice by reducing the likelihood overall that the other team will score? How confident are we that we can measure the average shot quality for a player like Russell against the NHL average?” I think the conversation will fare a lot better.

    It’s a hypothesis formed by the eyes, but it is testable by analytics in the long run, IMO. The beauty of science is that it can make a reversal on its conclusions, it can change its mind, with the arrival of better theories and new data. Any analytics person worth their salt would respond to the above question fairly, and probably talk as much as they can about the specific proposition in question (measuring shot quality, seeing whether Russell is effective at driving the shot quality of the other team down). If the analytics person in question, however, responds with something akin to “possession metrics are the gold standard, Kris Russell sucks by them, therefore he is certifiably guaranteed a bad player” then you’re talking to a bit of a bad apple, IMO, because they’re not open to new evidence, they are being stubborn on their favoured existing model. That’s not a very good scientific attitude. At worst, the response should be, “every metric I know that seems to drive winning points in a bad direction on Kris Russell, and I think the case is overwhelming that he is not a very good player, but who knows, maybe there’s something the data hasn’t captured yet.”

    I think you just explained the disconnect between the analytics crowd and the eye test crowd beautifully.
    I am firmly in the eye test crowd, however I will admit that some of my observations could be wrong, and I really can’t predict the future.
    What amazes me is when someone posts a statistic, or series of statistics, that they THINK proves their point, and then insist that I change my position based on this “irrefutable evidence”.
    Some of them seem like religious zealots who have this burning need to convert you.

  124. Kinger_Oil.redux says:

    who,

    – there are amazing posters in here: many have their hobby horses.

    – I admire the work and passion that many put into this community

    – If some are too zealous for your taste, that’s fine, but nothing is done out of malice I don’t believe

    – It’s like any environment: hang out with those you have an affinity for, and mute others!

  125. Munny says:

    who,

    There are still people who think counting and recording things aren’t important?

    (I mean besides that idiot Spector)

    Don’t confuse presentation and personality with Math.

  126. Jethro Tull says:

    who: I think you just explained the disconnect between the analytics crowd and the eye test crowd beautifully.
    I am firmly in the eye test crowd, however I will admit that some of my observations could be wrong, and I really can’t predict the future.
    What amazes me is when someone posts a statistic, or series of statistics, that they THINK proves their point, and then insist that I change my position based on this “irrefutable evidence”.
    Some of them seem like religious zealots who have this burning need to convert you.

    Numbers cannot lie. They can be squeezed, twisted, misinterpreted, moved, omitted, made to jump through flaming hoops and, of course, be exaggerated. But they never lie. Therefore, if a player generates more shots playing with another player, we can count this, thus it is by definition, irrefutable. To wit; it happened, it was counted, then presented.

    No, what and how you personally choose to interpret said numbers……..well, that’s down to you, but don’t get snippy when someone calls you out on it, because things that can be counted are irrefutable. It’s not “I have three apples,” “yeah, well, that’s YOUR opinion.” I actually have three apples, and that’s irrefutable evidence that i have three apples.

    Also, see difference between qualitative and quantitative and how to draw conclusions from such. WG and i don’t always agree, but he’s amongst the best at this.

  127. bendelson says:

    N64:
    It’s a team game but sometimes team members are invisible when the whole team is counting on them.

    Yes Bendelson I’m talking about you last night. You knew full well that Steve Smith, DSF, Frank the Dog, G Backpacker and NYC Money were not around to get us to 1000 posts. Heck, your brother even reminded you:

    http://lowetide.ca/2017/10/04/game-one-2017-18-flames-at-oilers/comment-page-2/#comment-672540

    And you still let us down when we were counting on you to pick up the slack. You can’t expect all of the Pouzars to do it for us.

    I apologize for letting the team down… that said, I was at the game and don’t post while at Roger’s Place very often – having to much fun! Plus, it was a date night and Lowetiding whilst on a date night does not pay off N64. It just doesn’t…

  128. Munny says:

    Good game by the Oil last night. Couple of bonehead errors, especially the giveaway by Draisaitl, but no game is error-free. Moto looked hesitant, but at least he got a couple of touches on the puck on his first shift. Pretty cool to start on the opening faceoff. He and his family will remember that forever.

    Now we move on to seeing if this team can play the same way against better forwards than Cowtown’s, and whether there will be consistency to their game.

    Klefbom might be back at 100 percent, lol. Jesus H. Christ whaddagame. That accurate wrist shot seems like a new development, or at least the frequent deployment of it.

    Gord I hope this is the year Nuge finds the range.

  129. Munny says:

    Jethro Tull,

    Good post, Olive.

  130. who says:

    Kinger_Oil.redux:
    who,

    – there are amazing posters in here: many have their hobby horses.

    – I admire the work and passion that many put into this community

    – If some are too zealous for your taste, that’s fine, but nothing is done out of malice I don’t believe

    – It’s like any environment: hang out with those you have an affinity for, and mute others!

    Yeah, I’m not to worried about it either way.
    Just using the Kris Russell example, I like the player. I think he is a perfectly fine second pairing defender, especially when paired with Sekera, on a contending team. He skates well, anticipates well and competes hard. Wish he was a little bigger so he could handle some of the big forwards down low, but you can’t have everything. Just don’t feel the need to hunt down a bunch of statistics to post just to justify my position.
    Would have loved to sign him for less term and money but not sure that was possible.

  131. Munny says:

    bendelson,

    You’re fortunate that a hockey game counts as a date night with your girl.

    So let me get this straight…

    Hockey game at Rogers

    Date with lovely wife/gf

    Connor hattrick

    Oiler victory

    and sounds like date night “paid off”…

    Dammit, Bendelson, you out-scored McDeity last night!

  132. pocession charge says:

    Munny,

    I got to drive my friend’s brand new NSX yesterday. It is quite the car. Almost needed help getting in and out of it because it’s so low to the ground. Took it out to a quiet highway and pushed it hard. That car is a hybrid rocket. It has a very user friendly launch control and can run a sub 3 second 0-60mph. It’s definitely a super car as far as performance goes.

  133. who says:

    Jethro Tull: Numbers cannot lie.They can be squeezed, twisted, misinterpreted, moved, omitted, made to jump through flaming hoops and, of course, be exaggerated. But they never lie.Therefore, if a player generates more shots playing with another player, we can count this, thus it is by definition, irrefutable.To wit; it happened, it was counted, then presented.

    No, what and how you personally choose to interpret said numbers……..well, that’s down to you, but don’t get snippy when someone calls you out on it, because things that can be counted are irrefutable.It’s not “I have three apples,” “yeah, well, that’s YOUR opinion.”I actually have three apples, and that’s irrefutable evidence that i have three apples.

    Also, see difference between qualitative and quantitative and how to draw conclusions from such.WG and i don’t always agree, but he’s amongst the best at this.

    Whoops. Wasn’t looking to get into a big debate so I just have one comment.
    I have never questioned the accuracy of the statistics presented here so I will happily concede they are irrefutable. What is not irrefutable is what they mean, and how much weight we should give to them.
    Your first paragraph pretty much sums up all the things people can do with numbers.

  134. SwedishPoster says:

    Berglund had an assist and was one of his teams best players in a 6-2 victory over the reigning champ HV71. Probably his best SHL game so far. Played 17:07. His helper was a shot that missed the net, hit the backboards, bounced out and was tucked in by Matt Anderson(who played two NHL games for the Devils a few years ago) so a bit of a lucky break.

    Lagesson played 22:44 when his team won 6-2 as well and provided his normal steady game, 0 pts and +1.

  135. Side says:

    ashley:
    Talbot made some amazing saves last night to keep it 1-0.The Flames were starting to gamble a bit which opened up the ice for the 2-0 goal.And of course the 3-0 goal was EN.So the score flatters us quite a bit.If Talbot didn’t save that point blank Monahan chance, I think it was anybody’s game.

    On the other hand, we did carry the play for most of the night. Smith was lights out.

    I don’t know if the score flatters the Oilers a bit.. on the Flamesnation site they posted a heat map of the shots and the Flames took mostly perimeter shots while the Oilers had a lot right in Smith’s crease.

    And McDavid had… 3 breakaways? 4?

    If the Flames had Elliot playing, I feel like the Oilers could have won 5-0, or maybe even 6-0.

  136. Munny says:

    SwedishPoster: Lagesson played 22:44

    Sounds like first pairing minutes?

  137. Chachi says:

    SwedishPoster:
    Berglund had an assist and was one of his teams best players in a 6-2 victory over the reigning champ HV71. Probably his best SHL game so far. Played 17:07. His helper was a shot that missed the net, hit the backboards, bounced out and was tucked in by Matt Anderson(who played two NHL games for the Devils a few years ago) so a bit of a lucky break.

    Lagesson played 22:44 when his team won 6-2 as well and provided his normal steady game, 0 pts and +1.

    I thought they came up with a vaccine for HV71 a few years ago. I hope Berglund didn’t get infected.

    Also, thanks for the update.

  138. Jethro Tull says:

    who,

    It’s all good 😉

    Happy “Suck It, Flames” day.

  139. SwedishPoster says:

    Chachi: I thought they came up with a vaccine for HV71 a few years ago. I hope Berglund didn’t get infected.

    Also, thanks for the update.

    Yeah, It’s pretty much the worst team name of all times.

  140. Chachi says:

    SwedishPoster: Yeah, It’s pretty much the worst team name of all times.

    I love it! Their motto should be “Fånga Febern!” which google translate tells me is Swedish for “Catch the Fever!”

  141. Woodguy v2.0 says:

    Kinger_Oil.redux,

    I’m busy until tonight, will get into specifics then.

    I assumed you wanted a wager larger than $1K. I’ve always escrowed bets that size when I don’t know the person.

    if it’s just $100 to charity then obv. no escrow is needed

  142. jtblack says:

    Jethro Tull,

    +1.

    How we choose to see the Numbers is our choice. Connor reached a speed of 41km/hr last night. FACT. IRREFUTABLE. If you choose to decide he is or isn’t fast; thats a choice.

    There are extremes on every argument. If a person says Player A has the best Corsi so that means Player A is the best player; that is a reach. Player A has an irrefutable corsi % but it doesn’t neccessarily mean that player is the Best.

    The flip side is; if a fan has a pre determined opinion (IE: they don’t believe player A drives the play) and Numbers on possession are presented in Favor of player A’s positive corsi & possession regardless of linemates ; and the Fan just says nope, I am not buying it; That is stubborness and a Bias that cannot be corrected. And that is the fault of the beholder, not the numbers.

  143. SwedishPoster says:

    Munny: Sounds like first pairing minutes?

    Didn’t watch the game but I think Alex Urbom (another former Devil btw) went down so that got him some extra minutes but his coaches really trust him, second most TOI on the team.

  144. bendelson says:

    Munny:
    bendelson,

    You’re fortunate that a hockey game counts as a date night with your girl.

    So let me get this straight…

    Hockey game at Rogers

    Date with lovely wife/gf

    Connor hattrick

    Oiler victory

    and sounds like date night “paid off”…

    Dammit, Bendelson, you out-scored McDeity last night!

    You must be relatively new here Munny… yes, my wife, and yes, she’s awesome. She wasn’t much of a hockey fan that married into an Oiler family. Back when we started dating, she thought nothing of the fact that I took her to the Heritage Classic other than it being a fun date afternoon/evening. My family, on the other hand, knew exactly what that meant!

    After going 3-0 in the playoffs together last season, the cost of the seasons tickets is now simply a fixed cost in our household. No discussion/justification required…

    I tell her “I’m a lucky man” often… and she typically responds that “no – she is in fact, the lucky one”. And why debate that?

    Woot! Woot!

  145. Munny says:

    bendelson: You must be relatively new here Munny…

    Been here since the start of Lowetide. This is just a new avatar for me.

    Sounds like you’re both lucky!

  146. wheatnoil says:

    I compiled some of my tracking last night in to a thread on Twitter for those interested. I hope to post regular updates on The Oilers Rig blog but may not be able to do game recap posts just due to time. We’ll see.

    https://twitter.com/wheatnoil/status/915999846519017472

    I’m trying to add a bit more context to the stats this year but it’s taking more time, which is such a limited thing as it is.

    Let me know what you guys think. The thread has some relevance to the discussion today as I try to link the zone transitions I tracked to some of the corgis and Matt Fenwicks.

  147. SayItAin'tSo, Gretz, SayItAin'tSo! says:

    Hmmm

    Personal mentor is The Great One.

    Guy that sits 2nd all time right behind the Great One on all those stats lists and is now an enemy playing for the godless city to the South says “He scored three and had three more breakaways, I’ve never seen somebody dominate a game like that … I wouldn’t be surprised that some day he scores 100 goals and break the record. It is possible.”

    http://www.tsn.ca/nhl/video/mcdavid-is-just-too-good-man~1225239

  148. kgo says:

    Marincin on Waivers? I thought he was first pairing material…

  149. Lowetide says:

    kgo:
    Marincin on Waivers? I thought he was first pairing material…

    No, that was never his projection. He did have some good boxcars in the AHL but that was due to playing with Justin Schultz. Here’s Red Line:

    Redline Report: Tall Lanky D with a huge frame to fill out. Good skating ability for his size; Pivots well and shows good agility, though he lacks balance and acceleration. Skates with head up and looking for plays – smooth puck handler with good passing touch. Reads play quickly and makes good decisions. Doesn’t force things that aren’t there. However, once he makes his outlet pass, his arms sag to his side and he’s not interested in trying anything else offensively. Lacks an aggressive mindset and rarely ventures off the blue line at offensive end. Inconsistent defensively – positioning in own zone needs improvement. Tough to beat 1-on-1 off the rush because of his mobility and long reach, but can be beaten in tight by quick, shifty forwards. Counts mostly on the pokecheck and skating ability rather than using his big body, but is improving in the physical aspect and does a good job pinning men against the wall.
    Projection: Big, shutdown #4-5 dman
    Style compares to: Lavislav Smid (with a better shot)

  150. OriginalPouzar says:

    SwedishPoster:
    Berglund had an assist and was one of his teams best players in a 6-2 victory over the reigning champ HV71. Probably his best SHL game so far. Played 17:07. His helper was a shot that missed the net, hit the backboards, bounced out and was tucked in by Matt Anderson(who played two NHL games for the Devils a few years ago) so a bit of a lucky break.

    Lagesson played 22:44 when his team won 6-2 as well and provided his normal steady game, 0 pts and +1.

    Thank you for posting. I was watching the boxscores for the two games but that doesn’t provide much info.

    22:44 – yowsers that’s great.

  151. bendelson says:

    Munny: Been here since the start of Lowetide. This is just a new avatar for me.

    Sounds like you’re both lucky!

    I assumed you must be relatively new as I mention my wife fairly often around these parts…

    I didn’t realize you were a wily veteran!

    And now I’m curious – care to share your original screen name/avatar?

  152. Bag of Pucks says:

    The issue with the one line approach (even if it’s the best line in the league) is that it doesn’t work in the playoffs.

    TMac tried this repeatedly with SJ and the results were usually the same, great regular season results followed by playoff disappointment.

    This may be MacLellan’s one blindspot as an HC. He’s unwilling to pay the short term pain required for the long term gain of developing a more balanced Top 9.

    The verbal is encouraging that he wants Leon centering his own line, but just hasn’t found the right fit for Connor’s RW to replace Leon. But it begs the question, how hard is he trying? Like Crosby, it appears Connor doesn’t need elite linemates to generate chances. He’s a one man band. So, why not spread the scoring out with that advantage in mind?

    I believe they see JP as the final piece of the puzzle, so until they can slot him alongside Connor and have him sniping consistently, this is the preferred approach.

  153. N64 says:

    bendelson: I apologize for letting the team down…that said, I was at the game and don’t post while at Roger’s Place very often – having to much fun!Plus, it was a date night and Lowetiding whilst on a date night does not pay off N64.It just doesn’t…

    Nice!!!

    ~ Don’t forget to turn in your signed absentee form at the office. And no forging her signature. ~

  154. Munny says:

    bendelson,

    spOILer. Sorry, I couldn’t remember if it was wife or girlfriend. Bit fuzzy today… did some free design work for a friend and they decided to pay me back in beers and absinthe during the game.

  155. Munny says:

    wheatnoil,

    Thank you for all your hard work on this, WnO.

  156. Munny says:

    wheatnoil,

    I find it curious that the rates of zone entries for the 2nd and 3rd pairs were higher than for the first pairing.

    Is this a function of keeping the puck in at the offensive blue line, and/or efforts through the neutral zone, or simply the forwards the pairings are on the ice with and how good at O those forwards are?

  157. McNuge93 says:

    Bag of Pucks:
    The issue with the one line approach (even if it’s the best line in the league) is that it doesn’t work in the playoffs.

    TMac tried this repeatedly with SJ and the results were usually the same, great regular season results followed by playoff disappointment.

    This may be MacLellan’s one blindspot as an HC. He’s unwilling to pay the short term pain required for the long term gain of developing a more balanced Top 9.

    The verbal is encouraging that he wants Leon centering his own line, but just hasn’t found the right fit for Connor’s RW to replace Leon. But it begs the question, how hard is he trying? Like Crosby, it appears Connor doesn’t need elite linemates to generate chances. He’s a one man band. So, why not spread the scoring out with that advantage in mind?

    I believe they see JP as the final piece of the puzzle, so until they can slot him alongside Connor and have him sniping consistently, this is the preferred approach.

    Well, he split them up in the playoffs last year with good results. So I don’t know that it’s a blind spot. I think he’s an ‘if it ain’t broke…’ coach. As long as it’s working he’ll run with it.

  158. N64 says:

    McNuge93: Well, he split them up in the playoffs last year with good results. So I don’t know that it’s a blind spot. I think he’s an ‘if it ain’t broke…’ coach. As long as it’s working he’ll run with it.

    He has 3 centres to give top 6 time to. He has a history of using centers flexibly. As Drai grows the larger % of his time will be away from 97, but this isn’t going to be binary.

  159. Chachi says:

    Bag of Pucks:
    The issue with the one line approach (even if it’s the best line in the league) is that it doesn’t work in the playoffs.

    TMac tried this repeatedly with SJ and the results were usually the same, great regular season results followed by playoff disappointment.

    This may be MacLellan’s one blindspot as an HC. He’s unwilling to pay the short term pain required for the long term gain of developing a more balanced Top 9.

    The verbal is encouraging that he wants Leon centering his own line, but just hasn’t found the right fit for Connor’s RW to replace Leon. But it begs the question, how hard is he trying? Like Crosby, it appears Connor doesn’t need elite linemates to generate chances. He’s a one man band. So, why not spread the scoring out with that advantage in mind?

    I believe they see JP as the final piece of the puzzle, so until they can slot him alongside Connor and have him sniping consistently, this is the preferred approach.

    Leon was the centre on the first line last night. He took all the faceoffs. The position Connor McDavid played was holyshitdidyouseethat!

  160. OriginalPouzar says:

    The lines are still a work in progress.

    Imagine how much deeper we are going to look when Slepy replaces Yamamoto as 2RW after the weekend (or at least some time soon).

    The other wild card for this season is when Puljijarvi will be recalled (he will be at some point) and how material of a player will he be. It seems that there is a decent history of these European league draftees who start their 2nd years in the AHL being productive NHL players once recalled during that 2nd year.

    Maybe Puljijarvi pulls a Drai in a month and never looks back.

  161. Sugar Reijo says:

    Hunter, please put me down for 109 points. Thanks!

    hunter1909:
    ANNOUNCEMENT
    The Hunter1909 Death March deadline has NOW been extended to face off, October 14.

  162. wheatnoil says:

    Munny:
    wheatnoil,

    I find it curious that the rates of zone entries for the 2nd and 3rd pairs were higher than for the first pairing.

    Is this a function of keeping the puck in at the offensive blue line, and/or efforts through the neutral zone, or simply the forwards the pairings are on the ice with and how good at O those forwards are?

    Do you mean zone exits or entries against?

    For exits, the first pairing had the greater combined rate of total exits.

    For zone entries against, the rate on the chart is JUST controlled entries against, which Klefbom and Larsson did a pretty good job of preventing.

    Unless I’m misunderstanding your question?

  163. Munny says:

    wheatnoil,

    It was zone entries against… I was just looking at the Times Targeted and their TOI and thinking the totals are about the same but the 1st pairing has 2 minutes more TOI, thus lower rate.

  164. Munny says:

    wheatnoil,

    I may be misunderstanding what Times Targeted means, but I’m guessing it’s when the opposition has the puck in control through the neutral zone and is attempting entry, one side or the other.

  165. McSorley33 says:

    wheatnoil,

    Outstanding work sir….

  166. wheatnoil says:

    Munny:
    wheatnoil,

    I may be misunderstanding what Times Targeted means, but I’m guessing it’s when the opposition has the puck in control through the neutral zone and is attempting entry, one side or the other.

    It’s when the D-man is specifically targeted in a zone entry against (as opposed to a forward or a dump in with no attempt at gaining the line). So it’s possible the other team dumped it in a bit more when KlefLar was out. Also, don’t forget that if you just dump the puck out for a zone exit, it’s likely to just get picked up and brought back in and so that might be two targets in shift. That along with the increased offensive zone time for KlefLar all likely contribute.

  167. Showerhead says:

    OK so last night was THE MOST FUN can we do that every night CONNOR IS LIGHTNING but no he is not he is an Oiler and HOLY FREAKING WOW.

  168. McSorley33 says:

    SayItAin’tSo, Gretz, SayItAin’tSo!,

    Wow….that is so good.

    Thanks.

  169. Munny says:

    wheatnoil,

    Ahh, thank you, sir.

  170. Georges says:

    LT:

    The FF% column is redundant once you’ve listed 5v5 FF-FA.

    5v5 GF-GA is really, really important. It’s what happened. Here’s where winning happened, here’s where losing happened. Without that context, Fenwick is just Fenwick. It’s not winning and losing. When you include GF-GA, you can get into did a player win or lose in a way we can be happy with, i.e., how did possession look? The way you’re doing it, you’re setting winning at Fenwick as the goal. That is not the goal. Scoring more goals is the goal. And you’re leaving out score effects which takes you even further from what happened. So we can expect recaps where Russell (as an example) will get caved on Fenwick (and will get called out for it) in a game that we win by 2 and the Russell pairing comes out even (which won’t get mentioned in the present format,).

    You seem committed to the idea we can understand the game through the numbers we record in the course of a game. 5v5 goals are the most important numbers on the record for tracking team and player performance.

  171. Munny says:

    wheatnoil,

    There is no count then of the number of times the opp forwards choose to deliberately put the puck in the Dman’s corner?

  172. wheatnoil says:

    Munny:
    wheatnoil,

    There is no count then of the number of times the opp forwards choose to deliberately put the puck in the Dman’s corner?

    It’ll still count as a targeted uncontrolled entry unless they’re way back from the line with the d-man not near them.

    That said, I haven’t been tracking what happens in the zone on recovery this year, so recovering the puck is a separate skill that I’m not tracking but our own Woodguy is tracking in his own project.

  173. dustrock says:

    People need to remember that one reason stats guys get so passionate about Corsi is that there are way, way, way more shots recorded over a season than goals. So it’s a higher sample size.

    There seems to be a correlation between positive Corsi and making the playoffs.

    That’s what all the fuss comes down to – possession is important.

    So people see that Russell gets caved on possession (both ways) and they believe that, over the course of a season, or several seasons, the Oilers will get outchanced and lose more often.

    That’s the crux of the argument.

  174. stush18 says:

    bendelson: I assumed you must be relatively new as I mention my wife fairly often around these parts…

    I didn’t realize you were a wily veteran!

    And now I’m curious – care to share your original screen name/avatar?

    It would be nice to make a list of changes avatars. Just to keep track.

  175. pocession charge says:

    Munny:
    bendelson,

    spOILer. Sorry, I couldn’t remember if it was wife or girlfriend.Bit fuzzy today… did some free design work for a friend and they decided to pay me back in beers and absinthe during the game.

    Hey spOILer. I thought for sure that you were GMoney.

  176. wheatnoil says:

    McSorley33,

    Thanks!

  177. Munny says:

    wheatnoil: It’ll still count as a targeted uncontrolled entry unless they’re way back from the line with the d-man not near them.

    That said,I haven’t been tracking what happens in the zone on recovery this year, so recovering the puck is a separate skill that I’m not tracking but our own Woodguy is tracking in his own project.

    Awesome, thank you.

  178. Munny says:

    pocession charge,

    If only I had those programming skills. And the NSX, lol.

  179. kgo says:

    Lowetide: No, that was never his projection. He did have some good boxcars in the AHL but that was due to playing with Justin Schultz. Here’s Red Line:

    During one of last year’s preseason LT blog posts…(Oct 8th,2016, at 4:53 pm)
    RICKITHEBEAR said:

    “Getting rid of a 1st pairing top 90 HSCA D Marincin.
    Who Babcock rates as a #1 hsca d.
    was not a good thing.”

    -1 for the stats nerds…chalk it up LT

  180. Munny says:

    kgo: -1 for the stats nerds…chalk it up LT

    Yes, because they all speak with the same voice and should be treated as such.

    /s

    smh

  181. prairieschooner says:

    The only thing the six Flames on the ice could offer was eye witness testimony.

    LT That is one of your very best

    For the speed calculators and number crunchers
    Please calculate at which point measured in seconds when each Flame was eliminated from further participation

  182. bendelson says:

    Munny,

    Ah yes, spOILer.
    I knew I liked the cut of your jib Munny (William?)… and now I know why!

  183. Gerta Rauss says:

    Munny = spOILer

    Did not know that

    *mental note

  184. Wild Bill Hunter says:

    I beg to differ. Talbot did not make any “fantastic saves”. He didn’t have to. The Flames had maybe two quality chances and both times the shooter hit Cam. His positioning was flawless and the team played a solid defensive game but I did not see a single save that I would call fantastic.

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