Broken Arrow

The Edmonton Oilers are still building their team, still searching for more pieces for the McDavid cluster. Logic and reason suggest this is ‘go time’ in the last season of Connor McDavid’s entry-level deal but there are so many unanswered questions on the roster, that may not be possible. It’s a difficult road for any manager, Peter Chiarelli (so far) deciding to find out about the kids. Perhaps it would have been easier to sign Cody Franson and Jaromir Jagr, to make a trade for Josh Leivo. The plan, as we stand here today, is to find out what’s cooking internally with the department of youth at the NHL level. That takes time and the organization is burning daylight.

How many roster spots can you devote to unproven players and still contend for the Stanley Cup? You can allow for Andrej Sekera on that second pairing and if Leon is healthy then the RW situation is not really dire. I don’t think there’s a lot of resistance to the following statement: The Oilers don’t look like a contender. Not today. The club is still building, and the Sekera plus Leon injuries are driving that home harder than the Stones’ rhythm section.

THE WHO, BY NUMBERS

  • HD SC 5×5: 15-4 (78.95 percent)
  • SC 5×5: 32-13 (71.11 percent)
  • Corsi for 5×5: 71.35 (66.98 percent)
  • Source: Natural Stat Trick

The numbers from last night are a sick joke. Some of it score effects, some of it a reflection of one team’s precision and another team’s inability to finish,  some of it on goaltending both ways. Edmonton’s goalies have been the lesser in most every game this season, and at the other end Edmonton’s snipers are making every G they face look like Bernie Parent. It’s a helluva slump, plus some other things, but these numbers are silly majestic bordering on mocking this Oilers team. How can a team lose so badly on the scoreboard and win possession this severely?

IT DON’T COME EASY, YEAR OVER YEAR

  • Oilers in October 2015: 0-4-0, goal differential -8
  • Oilers in October 2016: 3-1-0, goal differential +2
  • Oilers in October 2017: 1-3-0, goal differential -6

No way to sugarcoat this start, the Oilers look as out of time as they did in the Quinn, Renney or Eakins era. Each sortie defended looks like a dance of strangers, and in offensive sojourns, nothing rhymes. But, and this is important, this bleeding team has the puck going in a very good direction. They are in a shooting slump and the goaler isn’t consistent. Even if they don’t change a thing, and they should add a RHD and a veteran RW, this team is going to have far better days. The question is ‘will it be enough?’ and I am not in possession of that answer.

WHAT TO EXPECT FROM OCTOBER

  • At home to: Calgary (Expected: 1-0-0) (Actual 1-0-0)
  • On the road to: Vancouver  (Expected: 1-0-0) (Actual: 0-1-0)
  • At home to: Winnipeg, Ottawa, Carolina (Expected 1-1-1) (Actual: 0-2-0)
  • On the road to: Chicago, Philadelphia, Pittsburgh (Expected 1-1-1) (Actual 0-0-0)
  • At home to: Dallas, Washington (Expected 1-1-0) (Actual 0-0-0)
  • Overall expected result: 5-3-2, 12 points in  10 games 
  • Current results: 1-3-0, 2 points after four games

There’s still no reason to panic and in fact there are some good arrows emerging (more to come). What is becoming obvious is this: Peter Chiarelli is going to have to decide how many experiments he’s willing to run during the final entry-level year of Connor McDavid. He may have taken on too many projects and once again an Edmonton general manager leaves the train station lacking depth and balance.

DEFENSE LAST NIGHT

  • The numbers are fantastic but in reality there were significant mistakes and they were costly.
  • Nurse—Russell had a good night to my eye, the pairing were on the ice most at 5×5 and for the most part the puck was headed in the right direction. Certainly good enough to get another shot in my opinion, don’t believe either man can be blamed for last night’s loss.
  • Klefbom—Larsson had an adventure on many shifts, Larsson got the goal but he made both coverage and passing misplays on the evening. Klefbom was the better part of the pairing for me, he was his usual calm self with the only real criticism being the pairing couldn’t get the puck up ice consistently.
  • Auvitu—Gryba were about what we thought they might be, Auvitu brought some chaos and Gryba was a little late on several plays. The first goal against featured Auvitu losing his mark and Gryba defending air. This isn’t going to be a successful pairing in my opinion.
  • Cam Talbot is starting this season in a similar fashion to the one he played in the first season with the Oilers. He’s a talented player but is giving up at least one goal a game that he shouldn’t, and that may mean more time for the backup goalie. Laurent Brossoit gave up a couple himself but has earned a start.

FORWARDS

  • Maroon—McDavid—Yamamoto were fabulous in possession and the line engineered the goal. Maroon is effective, as he was a year ago, but those 10-bell chances don’t appear to be happening. McDavid is brilliant, don’t touch a thing. Yamamoto? He was good to my eye, certainly earned another game.
  • Lucic—Nuge-Kassian did well in possession and Nuge was excellent in the faceoff dot. The second line has to bring more danger than this unit did last night.
  • Jokinen—Strome—Slepyshev got a little more done than the second line in my opinion, both wingers appeared in some good places. Strome isn’t getting to the game enough, something needs to happen for him.
  • Khaira—Letestu—Pakarinen were fine, I will say that Mark Letestu isn’t impacting the power play much and at some point we might see Strome or Yamamoto grab that job.
  • Natural Stat Trick and NHL.com.

WHAT DOES IT ALL MEAN?

Last week a lot of people were calling the Oilers lazy but I didn’t really buy into it. These are errors of execution at both ends, made more difficult for three reasons:

  • Cam Talbot has some wobble in his game
  • Injuries to Andrej Sekera and now Leon Draisaitl leave this team far less than they were in the spring
  • Auditioning kids in so many areas is never a going to help you win hockey games.

All of this is fixable. Talbot will be fine, Sekera and Draisaitl will return and the kids will rise and fall, finding their way. The thing to worry about? The playoffs. Connor McDavid’s entry-level contract may expire without a trip to the second season if the club doesn’t right the ship soon. Losing points in October brings pain in April and the Oilers don’t look like a team about to go 3-0-0 this week. Balance: It’s the real thing. The Edmonton Oilers should try it some time.

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166 Responses to "Broken Arrow"

  1. flyfish1168 says:

    Lots we can learn from this poor start.
    1) without Connor going we are a mediocre team
    2) Cam needs to be at his best
    3) Without Sekara our 2nd pairing is poor
    4)We need RW help
    5) Need 2ndary scoring
    6) Our confidence can be fragile
    7) Not enough depth

    PC has a do do list. Now it’s up to him and his panic level.

  2. Oilin4 says:

    Last night Andrej Sekera became my new favorite Oiler. I did not appreciate how he was the keystone that held the defence together.

    Free Mark Fayne! He isn’t a great defenceman, maybe isn’t even a good one, but he’s better than Yohann Auvitu by a long shot. Not to mention with him in the lineup everyone is on their natural side.

    Can Vegas start losing yet so we can trade for D reinforcements?

  3. OriginalPouzar says:

    The possession and shot metrics do not reflect the play.

    The Oilers were slow, very slow, all night long. They were slow to battle and lost the battles.

    They also made mistakes, in all zones.

    Sure, McDavid made some plays but he was pretty meh on the night – again – he is not playing like the best player in the world and hasn’t since game 1.

    2nd pair by my eye was OK. Nurse was quite good.

    1st pair was awful by my eye.

    Jokinen was awful – slow, soft, turnovers, missed chances.

    Strome was non existent.

    Talbot was meh – where is a save when you need one?

  4. Lowetide says:

    Lol. No one goes after No. 1 overall picks like Oilers fans. #FreeMcDavid

  5. dustrock says:

    flyfish1168:
    Lots we can learn from this poor start.
    1) without Connor going we are a mediocre team
    2) Cam needs to be at his best
    3) Without Sekara our 2nd pairing is poor
    4)We need RW help
    5) Need 2ndary scoring
    6) Our confidence can be fragile
    7) Not enough depth

    PC has a do do list. Now it’s up to him and his panic level.

    Weird, almost like most of this was visible during the entire offseason.

    Chiarelli is failing McLellan and the roster. McLellan talked about wanting the roster playing faster. Shame every player Chiarelli brought in has been slow.

    Call up Simpson and Puljujarvi. Let Kassian sit a game.

  6. OriginalPouzar says:

    Time to move on from that game, again, and get ready for Carolina.

    Looking forward to a great structured team game.

    I assume Benning is back and Brossoit gets the start.

    Hopefully Drai is improving and won’t be out for long.

  7. OriginalPouzar says:

    Is anyone else worried that the PP goals given up last night will lead to a Chris Kelly signing before Tuesday?

  8. flyfish1168 says:

    We are not beating the goalie on our 1st shot but we are also not creating rebounds off the shot either.

  9. dustrock says:

    On McDavid, he needs to find a way to get it done in the half-court offence.

    If you limit his transition opportunities and PPs, he’s not looking like the MVP.

    That’s consistent going back to the Anaheim series.

    We’re talking about an Ottawa team missing a top 5 player in the world and they scored 12 goals against Alberta.

  10. Jethro Tull says:

    flyfish1168:
    Lots we can learn from this poor start.
    1) without Connor going we are a mediocre team
    2) Cam needs to be at his best
    3) Without Sekara our 2nd pairing is poor
    4)We need RW help
    5) Need 2ndary scoring
    6) Our confidence can be fragile
    7) Not enough depth

    PC has a do do list. Now it’s up to him and his panic level.

    1) Numbers say not. Last year yes, but this year not, so far.
    2) Not sure what’s up with Cam. Dubnyk syndrome?
    3) Agreed
    4) Yep.
    5) Need scoring. FIFY.
    6) Agreed, but i suggest it isn’t lack of confidence, especially with McDavid on the ice. Poor preparation and lack of execution seem more prevalent.
    7) Agreed, though Chia gave verbal that he knows this. I’m thinking that more than a few GMs chose not to make the Oilers stronger over the off season by prohibitive pricing.

    What to do, what to do?

  11. Jethro Tull says:

    Oilin4:
    Last night Andrej Sekera became my new favorite Oiler. I did not appreciate how he was the keystone that held the defence together.

    Free Mark Fayne! He isn’t a great defenceman, maybe isn’t even a good one, but he’s better than Yohann Auvitu by a long shot. Not to mention with him in the lineup everyone is on their natural side.

    Can Vegas start losing yet so we can trade for D reinforcements?

    Fayne is a nice Gryba. There should be at least one of a d pair that can do backwards cross overs.

  12. Jethro Tull says:

    Lowetide:
    Lol. No one goes after No. 1 overall picks like Oilers fans. #FreeMcDavid

    #firstofftheice

  13. Dicky94 says:

    Are Wideman and Iggy still an option? Perhaps sign Kelly and give him a shot?
    I’m still not worried about this team. All teams go through this at some point in a season. They will get through this, and it will make them better. They have the best player in the world to help them do it.

  14. Jethro Tull says:

    dustrock,

    You want more speed and your answer is to sit one of our fastest players? And one that has played well so far?

  15. commonfan29 says:

    Lowetide: Lol. No one goes after No. 1 overall picks like Oilers fans. #FreeMcDavid

    We’ll be nice to Dahlin. I promise.

  16. Jethro Tull says:

    commonfan29: We’ll be nice to Dahlin. I promise.

    🎤Oh my Dahlin’, oh my Dahlin, oh my Dahlin Clementine!🎶

  17. Dino says:

    Since everyone is positing about what’s wrong with the team, read this if you want some optimism lol.

    1. It is possible for good teams to have bad slumps and come out the gate piss poor. Do any of you remember the 2015 Anaheim ducks? Their first month they went 1-7-2, scoring 9 goals and allowing 26 goals. They didn’t hit a 0.500 record until mid to late December and went on to not only make the playoffs but also win the division. These things happen.

    2. The San Jose Sharks. I think most people would agree they’re a good team and have been for a long time, probably playoff worthy. They have a fairly balanced roster plus an elite d-man in Burns. You know what else they have? An identical record to ours. 1-3-0 with a -6 goal differential. What else is similar between the Oilers and Sharks this season? The Sharks are missing Paul Martin from their top 4 defence right now. Kind of like the Oilers missing Sekera. I’m willing to bet getting those players back instantly make both teams better.

    3. All the underlying numbers and analytics show the Oilers in a good spot. They’re #1 in CF, #2 in SCF% behind the leafs and #2 in HDCF% behind only Dallas. However their shooting percentage is at 4% (usually they’re around 8 or 9%). Their save percentage is at %90.53. What does this tell me? They’re probably not as bad as this record shows. A lot like the 2006 cup final team, they need a few more saves and a few pieces back (sekera, drai). I fully expect Talbot to be good again, Sekera and Drai to make recoveries and come back and if they keep up good numbers I believe they’ll be able to bounce back with a vengeance like the 2015 ducks.

  18. dsr29 says:

    Calm talk from LT. Then the old standby……..balance, it’s a thing. My question is who in the nhl is worthy of the balance photo?

  19. D says:

    I would rather this team go through a little adversity now and sort through the issues. Two weeks ago they were Stanley Cup contenders. That has not changed just because of a slump.

  20. Psyche says:

    “Balance: It’s the real thing. The Edmonton Oilers should try it some time.” – LT

    This all day long.

    Funny how something so simple can be lost on a roomful of educated hockey men.

  21. sliderule says:

    To my eyes the oilers are not getting many scoring chances and when they do they put it in pads.I am looking at you Auvitu.
    In offensive zone the oilers play is throw it to point and hammer it .The opposition seems happy to jam the net and let the oilers play around the perimeter.
    The oilers are apparently getting lots of shots from high danger areas but it seems that most of them are from rebounds in tight and right into pads.

  22. Bag of Pucks says:

    There’s been just enough turnover in the roster that I think the team is struggling to find structure off the hop. One of the truly impressive aspects of last season was how committed the team was to a disciplined team system. Now we’re seeing disarray on the fundamentals: passing, positioning, puck retrieval. Practice makes perfect. They’ll sort it out.

    This is not the season to mortgage the future by playing fading vets over emerging prospects in pursuit of the mythical balance photo imo.

    We seem to forget the growing pains associated with Mess, Coffey, Fuhr, etc. Development doesn’t occur in a straight line. This is another LT truism we need to keep in mind, but I get it. We thought we were past the point of having to be patient.

    All that said, Talbot needs to be better. But Carey Price hasn’t looked particularly impressive yet either. Waiting on regression. We wait.

  23. Woodguy v2.0 says:

    Edmonton’s goalies have been the lesser in most every game this season, and at the other end Edmonton’s snipers are making every G they face look like Bernie Parent.

    I don’t think that’s avoidable this year without McDavid on the ice.

    Chiarelli has traded away/bought out/not-resigned almost every player who scored away from McDavid.

    The only two left are Maroon and Drai, and they mostly play with McDavid.

    Drai only scored well away from McDavid when with Hall though, so we don’t really know how often he can score away from McDavid.

    Drai’s 3 5v5 goals in 500 minutes away from McDavid isn’t a good early return.

    I was wondering about who is going to score without McDavid on the ice this year so I looked at both 15/16 and 16/17 without McDavid so see.

    Here is what I found:

    Starred (*) players no longer with the team.

    Oilers 5v5 Goal scorers away from McDavid in 15/16:
    Player Individual Goals w/o McDavid

    *Taylor Hall 17
    Leon Draisaitl 14 (13 of these are with Hall)
    *Jordan Eberle 7
    *Nail Yakupov 5
    *Teddy Purcell 8
    *Benoit Pouliot 4
    Iiro Pakarinen 5
    Zack Kassian 3
    Ryan Nugent-Hopkins 6
    *Matt Hendricks 4
    *Lauri Korpikoski 4
    Mark Letestu 4
    *Anton Lander 1

    Here are their goal scoring rates (5v5 G/60)

    *Taylor Hall 0.89
    Leon Draisaitl 0.83
    *Jordan Eberle 0.71
    *Nail Yakupov 0.60
    *Teddy Purcell 0.60
    *Benoit Pouliot 0.59
    Iiro Pakarinen 0.56
    Zack Kassian 0.48
    Ryan Nugent-Hopkins 0.47
    *Matt Hendricks 0.35
    *Lauri Korpikoski 0.34
    Mark Letestu 0.28
    Anton Lander 0.11

    Here is where that rate would have ranked them among all NHL forwards with at least 300 minutes that year:
    *Taylor Hall 63
    Leon Draisaitl 86
    *Jordan Eberle 126
    *Nail Yakupov 189
    *Teddy Purcell 189
    *Benoit Pouliot 196
    Iiro Pakarinen 213
    Zack Kassian 256
    Ryan Nugent-Hopkins 263
    *Matt Hendricks 318
    *Lauri Korpikoski 322
    Mark Letestu 351
    *Anton Lander 394

    So the only player left from 15/16 who scored at a better than 213th among NHL forwards is Drai.

    Here are the same 3 “goals without McDavid” metrics/rankings from last year

    5v5 Goals without McDavid

    Ryan Nugent-Hopkins 10
    *Tyler Pitlick 8
    *Jordan Eberle 8
    *Benoit Pouliot 8
    Patrick Maroon 7
    Zack Kassian 5
    *Matt Hendricks 4
    Drake Caggiula 4
    Milan Lucic 4
    Anton Slepyshev 3
    Leon Draisaitl 3
    Mark Letestu 2
    *David Desharnais 2

    5v5 G/60 without McDavid

    *Tyler Pitlick 1.83
    Patrick Maroon 0.99
    *Matt Hendricks 0.67
    *Jordan Eberle 0.66
    *Benoit Pouliot 0.65
    *David Desharnais 0.61
    Ryan Nugent-Hopkins 0.56
    Anton Slepyshev 0.43
    Drake Caggiula 0.42
    Zack Kassian 0.36
    Leon Draisaitl 0.36
    Milan Lucic 0.35
    Mark Letestu 0.17

    Here is where that rate would have ranked them among all NHL forwards with at least 300 minutes that year:
    *Tyler Pitlick 1
    Patrick Maroon 44
    *Matt Hendricks 160
    *Jordan Eberle 166
    *Benoit Pouliot 171
    *David Desharnais 207
    Ryan Nugent-Hopkins 230
    Anton Slepyshev 294
    Drake Caggiula 299
    Zack Kassian 334
    Leon Draisaitl 334
    Milan Lucic 340
    Mark Letestu 388

    Obviously Pitlick ran hotter than the Suna and should be discounted heavily.

    Other than Maroon the non-McDavid scoring still left on the roster tops out at 256th in the NHL among forwards with 300+ minutes.

    30 of the 68 non- McDavid 5v5 goals were traded off the roster.

    Jokinen and Strome were the main two players brought in to replace that offence. Khaira was elevated, more expected out of Sleppy etc.

    Last year’s G/60 and rank among forwards
    Jokinen 0.33 – 343
    Strome 0.83 – 82

    So maybe Strome can replace some of those goals, but he needs to get off of the 3rd line.

    Who you play with matters a lot and he’s not going to pot a 0.83/60 on the 3rd.

    Chiarelli traded/bought out/didn’t re-sign a lot of EDM goal scoring over the last two years and hasn’t replaced much of it.

    Until 29 is running his own line (and he’s succeeding, not a full slam dunk to happen given his scoring away from 97 last year) there is no secondary scoring to speak of.

    The Oilers forwards will make a lot of goalies look like Parent because that’s who they are.

  24. thehop says:

    Psyche,

    How bout the friggin team that shit kicked us last night.
    What are they going to look like when Karlsson is 100%?

  25. fifthcartel says:

    Almost everyone agreed now was the time to go for it with McDavid’s last year of his entry-level contract. Instead, Chiarelli signed Kris Russell for 4 years and 4 million, traded a top-line/top-six winger for a ~30 point guy and didn’t address the defense with Sekera’s injury (Russell doesn’t count).

    It’s pretty baffling the way he operated this offseason. The RW is a disaster, Draisaitl should play center, and they’re arguably worse when 97 is on the bench with the Eberle trade.

    They’re pretty high up their in terms of CF% and xGF%, but they’ve scored 2 goals when 97 isn’t on the ice. I don’t think they’re this bad, but I think they’re closer to a bubble team than the contenders everyone thought they were. I have no idea why people thought that way with the moves Chiarelli made.

  26. lucky says:

    Jethro Tull,

    Last night Larsson was Fayne-ing (rimming the puck without even looking). There’s no accounting for it. Guys stopped skating on retrievals, not the way to gain possession and certainly not the way to win the penalty calls. Talbot in full passive mode, not challenging at all – LB has to get the next start. This ship has to get righted quick, two players injured be damned. Depth? Pray to Gord the get it figured out by Nov 30, or face getting steamrolled by the dark force.

  27. Bag of Pucks says:

    A couple factors that I think advanced stats folks tend to underrate is the importance of continuity and chemistry. Turning over a third of the roster may look good on paper, but there is a price paid in terms of structure and system for every new player you slot into the roster.

    You see this with even the best teams. If, by necessity, they’ve had an active offseason and the depth chart has changed substantially, the early season is often a struggle to mesh all the new parts.

    Take a look at last night’s lineup and take note of 1) all the new players on the roster AND 2) all the returning players in new slots on the depth chart. This and the slow start for Talbot are the key issues imo. And yet, we’re pining for more roster moves instead of less?

    We won’t see the balance photo because of a bunch of off-season moves imo. We’ll see it when the key prospects have developed into reliable vets. This is the course of action they’ve committed to.

  28. Snowman says:

    Anyone who thinks Mcdavid can’t sustain and create pressure in the half court is nuts. HIs line did it multiple times last night for entire shifts. Not his fault they didn’t cash more but anyone who thinks he’s unable to produce in the cycle is insane.

    The D can’t make a pass. Nurse can’t. Russell can’t. Who played all night with Mcdavid? The two D worst suited to play with him. Nurse and Russell. They don’t transition the puck well enough imo. When faced with a plugged up neutral zone and even moderate pressure they can’t get it done. In the offensive zone they don’t have the offensive ability to help create. Not trying to shit on those two players but you need to maximize your weapons and Todd isn’t. Again I like Nurse and Russell both fine. Not together. Not playing with Mcdavid especially.

    Chia built this team to be big with a blend of players. Which I support. I’m a believer in that. However, he traded away way too much speed and skill. You can’t lose the Eberle trade as badly as we did after giving up as much as you did for Larsson. This team is built wrong. He went too far. He gave up too much skill and doesn’t have the goalering or the D to cover that error.

    Having said all that. Get Benning back in the lineup. Get him on the third pair with Nurse and don’t sell the damn farm to fix that second pairing but you have to fix it. You have to fix it right now.

    You can’t wait until December. This D isn’t good enough and the team isn’t fast enough. Even with Mcdavid.

  29. Bag of Pucks says:

    If this team can play .500 until Sekera returns, does that leave them too far back to make the dance?

  30. stush18 says:

    I’m sure this place is going to be reasonable the next couple days lol

    Gonna be a lot worse when we lose to Carolina. They’re Nashville lite

  31. Seismic Source says:

    These guys will snap out of it during the road trip.

  32. stush18 says:

    Bag of Pucks,

    Depends when he’s back.

    I think they’ll be fine

  33. Woodguy v2.0 says:

    Here’s a link to basically the same thing I wrote, but on twitter with fancy charts! https://twitter.com/Woodguy55/status/919597766812221440

  34. stush18 says:

    Snowman,

    I’ll say this.

    Mcdavid needs to breakout lower and needs to slow the play down a bit

    He’s not at his best when he’s going 100%. When he’s changing gears, he’s dominating. Right now you can tell hes frustrated, and he’s flying around the ice.

    He needs to slow it down.

  35. JimmyV1965 says:

    Dino:
    Since everyone is positing about what’s wrong with the team, read this if you want some optimism lol.

    1. It is possible for good teams to have bad slumps and come out the gate piss poor. Do any of you remember the 2015 Anaheim ducks? Their first month they went 1-7-2, scoring 9 goals and allowing 26 goals. They didn’t hit a 0.500 record until mid to late December and went on to not only make the playoffs but also win the division. These things happen.

    2. The San Jose Sharks. I think most people would agree they’re a good team and have been for a long time, probably playoff worthy. They have a fairly balanced roster plus an elite d-man in Burns. You know what else they have? An identical record to ours. 1-3-0 with a -6 goal differential. What else is similar between the Oilers and Sharks this season? The Sharks are missing Paul Martin from their top 4 defence right now. Kind of like the Oilers missing Sekera. I’m willing to bet getting those players back instantly make both teams better.

    3. All the underlying numbers and analytics show the Oilers in a good spot. They’re #1 in CF, #2 in SCF% behind the leafs and #2 in HDCF% behind only Dallas. However their shooting percentage is at 4% (usually they’re around 8 or 9%). Their save percentage is at %90.53. What does this tell me? They’re probably not as bad as this record shows. A lot like the 2006 cup final team, they need a few more saves and a few pieces back (sekera, drai). I fully expect Talbot to be good again, Sekera and Drai to make recoveries and come back and if they keep up good numbers I believe they’ll be able to bounce back with a vengeance like the 2015 ducks.

    +1. As bad as our defence is, it’s better than the bunch Ottawa rolls out when missing Karlsson. The team suffers a lack of confidence right now.

  36. Woodguy v2.0 says:

    Last year’s 5v5 SH%

    McDavid On 10.66%
    McDavid Off 6.93%

    I bet the McDavid Off drops below 6%

    Right now:

    McDavid On 5.66%
    McDavid Off 2.82%

    They’ll be better 5v5 than they are now, but the non-McDavid ceiling is lower for the 2nd year in a row.

  37. OriginalPouzar says:

    I wouldn’t mind seeing Auvitu waived and sent to Bakersfield (if he clears) and a 3rd pairing of Simpson/Benning.

    I’m assuming that the Nurse/Russell pairing will continue as our coach is remiss to not give Russell top 4 ES minutes and Nurse looked pretty good by eye last night.

  38. OmJo says:

    Woodguy v2.0,

    Excellent post.

    And kind of frustrating. So maybe the team should try Maroon-Nuge-Kassian on the second line? Then you have to move Lucic to 1st line LW.

    I dunno.

  39. OmJo says:

    Think it’s safe to say this will be a rollercoaster season, depending on how injuries continue to play out.

  40. doritogrande says:

    On McDavid, he needs to find a way to get it done in the half-court offence.

    And win a freaking faceoff. 18% last night is bad. Like, he’s-a-RW-and-Leon-is-an-actual-NHL-Center-instead bad. I get that this will come in time, but Crosby made a real and serious effort to improve in this aspect when he was in his early 20s.

  41. OmJo says:

    OriginalPouzar:
    I wouldn’t mind seeing Auvitu waived and sent to Bakersfield (if he clears) and a 3rd pairing of Simpson/Benning.

    I’m assuming that the Nurse/Russell pairing will continue as our coach is remiss to not give Russell top 4 ES minutes and Nurse looked pretty good by eye last night.

    I’m eating a plateful of crow today for breakfast over the Nurse-Russell pairing, based on the stats and verbal on how they did. A pleasant surprise, I like when the Oilers prove me wrong.

  42. Younger Oil says:

    What really sank in for me last night is how damn stupid the Eberle trade was.

    It made our RW depth Strome-Kassian-Slepyshev-Yamamoto-Puljujarvi, which is if we’re being honest five third line right wingers.

    This made it inevitable that Draisaitl would be playing RW, as he had more points than all of those right wingers combined last season, which also gave him an insane amount of leverage on his contract.

    Worst of all, we did literally nothing with the cap space we saved from trading Eberle, which is what people were saying was one of the main benefits of the deal. There is absolutely no reason we couldn’t use him for another year when McDavid was still on his ELC before trading him.

    Instead, Chia intentionally made the Oilers a worse team, for the year that is honestly probably our best chance of getting a Stanley Cup.

    If you want to save cap space, don’t sign Russell for a ridiculous number and term. Don’t trade away your best pure right winger for someone who has been a third liner for the majority of his career.

  43. Pescador says:

    thehop:
    Psyche,

    How bout the friggin team that shit kicked us last night.
    What are they going to look like when Karlsson is 100%?

    Like a team that went to the Eastern conference finals last year.
    The Sens are a good club, especially if they are getting the saves from Anderson

  44. OmJo says:

    Pescador: Like a team that went to the Eastern conference finals last year.
    The Sens are a good club, especially if they are getting the saves from Anderson

    The perennial underdogs because they’re always underrated lol.

  45. Nuclear leak says:

    The coach himself said he’s no good at creating offence, his assistant Woodcroft is suppose to be a dynamo at it….

    Terrible breakouts, brutal half court game, capped with a power play that’s visible from Titan.

    The GM has traded away a majority of the teams offensive dynamo’s yet all these issues were made clear by Jumbo Joe as to why San Jose could never get over the hump.

    Billion shots from the outside with no systems in place to create any secondary chances, creativity with this squad is non existent.

    Three teams in a row clogged the middle, held the lines, and forced the Oilers outside.

    Coaches need a bag skate, team doesn’t need to be faster, coaches need some damn innovation.

  46. blainer says:

    Wow been traveling and busy and finally get a chance to update and this is not the start I was expecting.
    A lot of our predictions involved a healthy team.

    Not many teams will survive the loss of a player of leon’s caliber. It hurts. Add to that the Sekera injury Tabs not being Tabs and Connor not being Connor.

    It is early but if this slide continues we will be in a deep hole. In order for us to be competitive we need health as we are just not deep enough yet.

    Goalies and coaches will be forever linked. I wonder how often the coach of the year has been linked to Vezina trophy candidates.

    A hot Goalie streak turns this train right back on the tracks along with better special teams. Be patient and wait til the end of the month. We will know more then. I will say though if Drai CMD and possibly even Tabs end up on LTIR this season is in jeopardy.

  47. Nuclear leak says:

    Pescador: Like a team that went to the Eastern conference finals last year.
    The Sens are a good club, especially if they are getting the saves from Anderson

    Was under the belief their stats portrait a ship waiting to sink.

  48. Silver Streak says:

    Silver Streak,

    Pouzer…..I was at the game and I echo your thoughts…..with the addition of Nudge to the list of good nights….I thought Aviatu was god awful…played the position like a forward would. Now the question…who do you start in net ??
    Carolina is up next, we always have trouble with them…..then the road trip from hell….we`ve already got a 3 game looser streak going….add 4 more and we are staring at a SEVEN game losing streak !
    Yes Ladies…..its time to panic…..actually it was time in August !

  49. OmJo says:

    blainer,

    Just looking at winners, the last two seasons the Vezina and Jack Adams’ winners were on the same team (Torts and Bobrovksy last season, Trotz and Holtby the year before). The last time it happened before 2015-16 was in 2008-09 with Julien and Thomas.

  50. rickithebear says:

    WG:
    Open/closed shots.

    Players have had games were all thier shots were closed shots.
    0% chance of going in.

    Our best open hole shooters end of season snd playoffs.
    Drai
    Mcdavid
    Slepyshev
    Cagguila
    Kassian

    Simply asking if a shot has above 0% chance of going in eliminates all the false shot data
    Blocks, misses, closed shots are the same.

    You are mice fighting over crumbles when the full meal is front of your face.

    Squeak, squeak

  51. OmJo says:

    Silver Streak,

    I think you have to start LB against the Hurricanes. Give Talbot a break and a chance to compose himself before the game in Chicago.

  52. Woodguy v2.0 says:

    OmJo:
    Woodguy v2.0,

    Excellent post.

    And kind of frustrating. So maybe the team should try Maroon-Nuge-Kassian on the second line? Then you have to move Lucic to 1st line LW.

    I dunno.

    I’d like to see

    19-97-18
    27-93-29
    Don’t
    Care

    Get another line going I’d hope.

  53. Woodguy v2.0 says:

    rickithebear,

    You are mice fighting over crumbles when the full meal is front of your face.

    You are a bear in the woods yelling at trees citing data from a database no one has ever seen.

  54. Bag of Pucks says:

    Younger Oil,

    If it makes you feel better, it’s likely Chia can’t resign both Connor AND Leon longterm without trading Eberle.

  55. TheVengeFulOne says:

    If you think you have a guaranteed top 5 goalie, and his name isn’t Carey Price, you are wrong. Talbot should be at least middle of the pack based on skill, but Goalies bounce around.

  56. rickithebear says:

    Hmm!
    Volume shooter?
    Open hole volume shooter?

  57. anjinsan says:

    “The Edmonton Oilers are still building their team, still searching for more pieces for the McDavid cluster. ”

    It’s that they don’t have another cluster and need another — news flash: hemorrhaging of high end talent makes the body weaker and you don’t replenish high end talent except with high end talent, and for the most part you have to draft it — losing 16 and 33 in ’15 was really, really bad; not getting a haul for Hall was really bad, getting 40 cents on the dollar for Eberle was really, really bad. Bloating contracts means you have limited your resources.

  58. TheVengeFulOne says:

    rickithebear:
    WG:
    Open/closed shots.

    Players have had games were all thier shots were closed shots.
    0% chance of going in.

    Our best open hole shooters end of season snd playoffs.
    Drai
    Mcdavid
    Slepyshev
    Cagguila
    Kassian

    Simply asking if a shot has above 0% chance of going in eliminates all the false shot data
    Blocks, misses, closed shots are the same.

    You are mice fighting over crumbles when the full meal is front of your face.

    Squeak, squeak

    Where do I find these open hole shots? At what point in time are they open? During release? When goalie makes the save? How many games are in the end of season sample? Also, what camera angle are we using to justify this open hole theory? Awfully hard to see without GoPro I would think.

  59. HT Joe says:

    I go to one game live each year, and last night was it. My thoughts (and I fully admit my interest bled away after 4-0)…
    – Kassian was active in a generally good way, but the referees really seemed to be against him.
    – With that said, the Oilers seemed very undisciplined (both Kassian and Lucic with hits / cross checks away from the play / after the whistle)
    – Other than heading off to the box, Lucic really didn’t seem to bring anything to the game. He’s reminding me of the Ethan Moreau who piled up selfish penalties without actually helping
    – The Senators seemed REALLY good at separating Oilers from the puck along the boards. It looked unfair.
    – The Oilers seemed to be really bad at separating the Senators from the puck along the boards.
    – The shot clock made it look like the Oilers were competitive, but to my eye, the Oilers really didn’t get a lot of good chances. There were a couple of clusters where they got lots of shots off, but Ottawa appeared to dominate possession for the most part.
    – I don’t think McDavid is to blame for last night at all… he looked like he was trying to do everything, since that’s how the team is structured (especially now after Draisatl is out indefinitely with injury). I had no issue with Chia trading away Eberle, but the return of Strome was poor enough that the trade shouldn’t have happened.

    I’m envious of how Calgary traded assets to the Islanders to a top-4 RHD (instead of for a 30-point winger), and then signed a free agent RW. If Chia had done this instead, success wouldn’t have been guaranteed, but there would at least be more options. After this off-season, TMac doesn’t seem to have a lot of options except bag-skating and doubling down on poor bets.

  60. Bag of Pucks says:

    anjinsan,

    Chia got the team’s current 1D for Hall. Would you prefer the gaping roster spot still?

    Eberle went to the Islanders, which is pretty much the league’s way of telling you the good teams didn’t want him.

    RE: #16 and #33 check out Cullen’s work on % odds for those picks. They’re not guarantees of productive roster players. They’re lottery tickets that fail more often than not, as is everything outside the Top 5.

  61. HT Joe says:

    Bag of Pucks:
    Younger Oil,

    If it makes you feel better, it’s likely Chia can’t resign both Connor AND Leon longterm without trading Eberle.

    That’s true since we have $6M tied up in Lucic, and $4M tied up in Russel…

  62. Pouzar says:

    Best House Warming party ever.

    Heard the the “chaotic” one was good at least.

  63. TheVengeFulOne says:

    Bag of Pucks:
    anjinsan,

    Chia got the team’s current 1D for Hall. Would you prefer the gaping roster spot still?

    Eberle went to the Islanders, which is pretty much the league’s way of telling you the good teams didn’t want him.

    RE: #16 and #33 check out Cullen’s work on % odds for those picks. They’re not guarantees of productive roster players. They’re lottery tickets that fail more often than not, as is everything outside the Top 5.

    GR was less of a guarantee at the time.

  64. OmJo says:

    Woodguy v2.0,

    So basically go with two scoring lines, and two just-survive-out-there lines? The verbal on Strome was that he was the Eberle/Draisaitl RW replacement so might as well give him a shot there. What’s the worse that can happen?

    But then who centres the third line? Jokinen? Call up Malone?

    Personally I’m back on the Nuge for 1RW bandwagon myself.

  65. HT Joe says:

    Bag of Pucks: Eberle went to the Islanders, which is pretty much the league’s way of telling you the good teams didn’t want him.

    I think the way of actually “telling you the good teams didn’t want him” would have been to put Eberle on the Las Vegas chopping block.

    *EDIT* If Strome was the only return for Eberle, then Chia should have kept Eberle (since he clearly didn’t plan to use that cap space for other substantial assets)

  66. Bag of Pucks says:

    As Oiler fans, we can never never complain about our luck in the lottery, but how much better is this team right now with Laine riding shotgun alongside McDavid?

  67. Jethro Tull says:

    HT Joe: I think the way of actually “telling you the good teams didn’t want him” would have been to put Eberle on the Las Vegas chopping block.

    Like nobody wanted James Neal. C’mon. That is not a good litmus test.

  68. Chachi says:

    Funny how on such a mathy blog people are so quick to default back to the eye test. I have never been more optimistic that an Oilers team will break out of a slump than I am right now based on the numbers. Hopefully they do it before too much damage is done in the standings, but it is early days yet.

  69. Bag of Pucks says:

    TheVengeFulOne: GR was less of a guarantee at the time.

    History has proven it was an error in judgement for Chia but describing it as “really really bad” overestimates the value of middling picks imo.

    Some posters like to cherry pick certain players (eg Carlo) that could’ve been had from that slot as witness for the prosecution. The Oil could just have easily picked a stump in that slot instead. That’s the draft.

    You know who’s been patiently building through the draft for years, never trading their picks? The Cleveland Browns. Draft picks are only legit currency if you’ve demonstrated the ability to outdraft the competition. Otherwise you’re in the same crap shoot as everyone else. I’ve seen no evidence as yet that the Oil brass have figured how to beat the odds at the draft table.

  70. HT Joe says:

    Jethro Tull: Like nobody wanted James Neal. C’mon. That is not a good litmus test.

    I meant it as a tongue-in-cheek response to the Bag of Pucks comment… I’m sorry that didn’t come across.

  71. OriginalPouzar says:

    OmJo: I’m eating a plateful of crow today for breakfast over the Nurse-Russell pairing, based on the stats and verbal on how they did. A pleasant surprise, I like when the Oilers prove me wrong.

    Except the entire team did well by the stats – the stats don’t tell the proper story last night.

  72. pocession charge says:

    rickithebear:
    WG:
    Open/closed shots.

    Players have had games were all thier shots were closed shots.
    0% chance of going in.

    Our best open hole shooters end of season snd playoffs.
    Drai
    Mcdavid
    Slepyshev
    Cagguila
    Kassian

    Simply asking if a shot has above 0% chance of going in eliminates all the false shot data
    Blocks, misses, closed shots are the same.

    You are mice fighting over crumbles when the full meal is front of your face.

    Squeak, squeak

    A mythical shot that has 0% chance of going in? Can you please explain this in an understandable fashion because that statement doesn’t make sense.

  73. Jethro Tull says:

    HT Joe: I meant it as a tongue-in-cheek response to the Bag of Pucks comment… I’m sorry that didn’t come across.

    Sorry, just that weirder things have been posited here seriously.

  74. Bag of Pucks says:

    If Garth Snow is trading for you, your stock is trending in the wrong direction.

    Possibly some good teams wanted Eberle, but if they did they weren’t willing to pay more than a Ryan Strome for him. That says a TON about Eberle.

    His market value was pretty much what you’d expect for a soft one dimensional winger with middling speed.

  75. Gret99zky says:

    We should have kept Eberle and signed Drai for $6.5M X 8.

    So easy. ؟

  76. pocession charge says:

    OriginalPouzar:
    I wouldn’t mind seeing Auvitu waived and sent to Bakersfield (if he clears) and a 3rd pairing of Simpson/Benning.

    I’m assuming that the Nurse/Russell pairing will continue as our coach is remiss to not give Russell top 4 ES minutes and Nurse looked pretty good by eye last night.

    I like that idea. I’d bring up Simpson, eh, too and get Benning back in. Gryba isn’t good enough to play every game and Auvitu can’t defend.

    And it might be time to give a few other guys a chance on wing. Strome, Jokinen, Letestu, Pakarinen are accomplishing nothing out there. Slepy was pathetic on the first goal last night but seemed to pick it up after that. It’s early for him so I’d cut him some slack. Yamamoto is the best RW and he isn’t ready for the NHL yet. Too many holes in the lineup right now (not sure if they are open or closed).

  77. OmJo says:

    OriginalPouzar,

    Going by stats and verbal (ie LT’s summary on the pairing and a few comments last night). Basically I thought they would be a disaster so the standard wasn’t high to begin with but hey, positives are positives and considering they played over 20mins each and finished even in a 0-6L is impressive.

  78. TheVengeFulOne says:

    Bag of Pucks: History has proven it was an error in judgement for Chia but describing it as “really really bad” overestimates the value of middling picks imo.

    Some posters like to cherry pick certain players (eg Carlo) that could’ve been had from that slot as witness for the prosecution. The Oil could just have easily picked a stump in that slot instead. That’s the draft.

    You know who’s been patiently building through the draft for years, never trading their picks? The Cleveland Browns. Draft picks are only legit currency if you’ve demonstrated the ability to outdraft the competition. Otherwise you’re in the same crap shoot as everyone else. I’ve seen no evidence as yet that the Oil brass have figured how to beat the odds at the draft table.

    I get it. Liked the idea, hated the target. GR isn’t playing hockey as a 23yo on an expansion team. He had ran in place in the WHL, and underperformed in the AHL at the time of the trade. Contrast that to a Damon Severson who had played 50 games in the NHL, and looked to be a much better bet. Have a hard time believing that basically 2 first don’t pull him now, or at that time.

  79. Gret99zky says:

    Chachi:
    Funny how on such a mathy blog people are so quick to default back to the eye test. I have never been more optimistic that an Oilers team will break out of a slump than I am right now based on thenumbers. Hopefully they do it before too much damage is done in the standings, but it is early days yet.

    True.

    This must be the “crawled through a river of shit” part of the season. Followed closely by, “came out clean on the other side.”

    *crosses fingers and hopes the guards don’t notice our shoes.*

  80. Pouzar says:

    Chachi:
    Funny how on such a mathy blog people are so quick to default back to the eye test. I have never been more optimistic that an Oilers team will break out of a slump than I am right now based on thenumbers. Hopefully they do it before too much damage is done in the standings, but it is early days yet.

    We would have been dancing in the streets 2 yrs ago with those numbers.

  81. Lowetide says:

    Bob Stauffer‏Verified account @Bob_Stauffer 8m8 minutes ago
    More
    Maroon-McDavid-Yamamoto
    Lucic-RNH-Strome
    Khaira-Letestu-Kassian
    Pakarinen-Jokinen-Slepyshev

  82. OmJo says:

    Still no Draisaitl… That eye injury/broken cheekbone/concussion/God knows what else couldn’t have occured at a worse time…

    /hyperbole

  83. Death By Misadventure says:

    LT , perhaps the stat to track in your tables is Fenwick Close rather than Corsi. Remove some of that score effect.

  84. thehop says:

    Lowetide,
    The Russian deserves a shot with the skill lines. Strome should be floating somewhere else.

  85. Lowetide says:

    Death By Misadventure:
    LT , perhaps the stat to track in your tables is Fenwick Close rather than Corsi. Remove some of that score effect.

    I want the widest net We can account for score effects although even with that last night as an enormous outlier. The process is working, but they need to house the roster with faster forwards who can shoot straight.

  86. Lowetide says:

    thehop:
    Lowetide,
    The Russian deserves a shot with the skill lines. Strome should be floating somewhere else.

    Yeah, agreed. Slepy is still getting his wings, though, it’ll come.

  87. Lloyd B. says:

    Chachi:
    Funny how on such a mathy blog people are so quick to default back to the eye test. I have never been more optimistic that an Oilers team will break out of a slump than I am right now based on thenumbers. Hopefully they do it before too much damage is done in the standings, but it is early days yet.

    This site used to be a “mathy” blog. It lives on that description by reputation only.

    LT uses them in his comments to start the conversation.

    WG uses them to back up his comments.

    Very few others do. Well, the Bear does but I can never make out what he is getting at.

    To be clear, I have never made a single comment with numbers in them.

    We are at over 80 comments today. 4 have numbers in them. WG and the Bear.

    Still a great place to discuss the hockey but it has evolved from being Mathy.

  88. thehop says:

    Pescador,

    One thing I appreciate about the Sens as an organization is their ability to draft well and develop well. I hope the Oilers can emulate some day. The balance photo starts and ends there imo.

  89. rickithebear says:

    TheVengeFulOne: Where do I find these open hole shots? At what point in time are they open? During release? When goalie makes the save? How many games are in the end of season sample?

    Thier is a league average closed shot ( hit goalie) rate based on height.
    The taller the better.

    Like football focus you must identify shots location in elevation.
    The emergance of smoothly moving with the puck greatly increased the shots that hit the goale.

    Dryden but strong hd dmen and shot supression dmen.

    Vanbiesbrook also had good hd and supression dmen.
    Which is greatly sybiotic in reducing open shots.

    Like when PFF started it was groups of objective football fans visiting video of each football play for each player.

    Each shot was available. It was just tracking the shot in location cause the corsi release is established.

    Corsi c,y is the hd component of the released puck
    Cresting a shot density faced by goalies andshot density allowed.

    Then we add in the binary component.
    0% chance
    Corsi x,y blocked
    Corsi x,y missed
    Vorsi x,y that get to net elevation and hit goalie (closed)

    Above 0%
    We identify the scoreable zones
    – Five hole
    – below blocker, vertical along chest protector and pants, above blocker side pads
    – Below glove, vertical alng chest protector and pants, above glove side pads
    – above blocker, allong chest protector, point of shoulder towards corner of net @ 60 deg
    – point of shoulder blker side, corner of net @ 60 deg, horz along top bar, vertical along helmet
    – above glove , along chest, point of shoulder tocorner of net @ 60 deg
    – point of shoulder glove side corner of net @60 deg, along top bar, vertical along helmet
    – pads aginst post blocker sde
    – pads against post glove side.

    A new ld/hd shot chart is created and a net elevation heat ( success map)is created for each goalie.

    Back in 1999 In reliability centered maintenance.
    I helped develop boiler fail tracking with flagging points in a multi plan map of boiler tubes to identify failure hot spots based on repetative tube failure.

    My whole aproach to hockey analytics is this way.

    So thier use to be easy quick access to all shot video.
    Alowing a ninary defenition of shots.

    What do you think i have been doing for the 3.5 hours each week night , 6-10 hr sat
    for 46 weeks a year ( 3 week foad trips, 1 week flying holiday) for 10 years.
    ((3.5 x 5) + (1 x 8)) x 46 x 20 = 11. 475 hr

    4:30 – 9 is with family on week days
    I go to all family events wife had to cover on weekends.
    3 week road trips.
    – okanagan, seattle, portland, columbia river. Co d,len
    – jasper, revelstoke, arrow lakes, nelson, christine lakes, castlegar, trail, creston, , crowsnest,
    My children will see alll of canada,s splendor, every american state and territory and safe exursions to other parts of the world.

    My problem thru this whole time is i can visualize datta in a 10D arrayed structure with range amplitude and median linear location.

    just recently 5d chart capability has been made available.
    I am currently learning what theories are finally presentable in a dbase and visually.

    Some may require 6d and 7d

  90. OmJo says:

    thehop:
    Lowetide,
    The Russian deserves a shot with the skill lines.

    *Circa 2013-2017. Heh.

  91. Cassandra says:

    Bag of Pucks:
    anjinsan,

    Chia got the team’s current 1D for Hall. Would you prefer the gaping roster spot still?

    Eberle went to the Islanders, which is pretty much the league’s way of telling you the good teams didn’t want him.

    RE: #16 and #33 check out Cullen’s work on % odds for those picks. They’re not guarantees of productive roster players. They’re lottery tickets that fail more often than not, as is everything outside the Top 5.

    Chiarelli traded Hall for Klefbom? When did that happen?

    It is just trolling to suggest Larsson is better than Klefbom or a #1 D, on this or any other team.

  92. texmex says:

    It’s possible the Oilers start the season 1-10. The upcoming schedule is brutal. Yikes!!!

  93. Lowetide says:

    Ricki: You must stop making accusations on this blog. You have always been welcome here, you bring a fascinating viewpoint. That said, recent posts have been over the top and I must insist on today being the last time. Stay in the lines, or I will be forced to put all of your posts in a filter and pre-read them. I respect you ricki, please respect me and this group.

  94. leadfarmer says:

    Cassandra,

    My favorite was his lbs per inch he was posting couple weeks ago. Like what does that show. Are we rating players by their BMI now

  95. Pouzar says:

    Jack Michaels‏Verified account @EdmontonJack 2m2 minutes ago
    More
    Caggiula on IR; EDM treating Draisaitl as a concussion–therefore no timeline. Kelly won’t be signed just yet but a forward to be recalled.

  96. Woodguy v2.0 says:

    Chachi:
    Funny how on such a mathy blog people are so quick to default back to the eye test. I have never been more optimistic that an Oilers team will break out of a slump than I am right now based on thenumbers. Hopefully they do it before too much damage is done in the standings, but it is early days yet.

    Who’s abandoning math?

    Also,

    5v5 SH% Last year
    With McDavid 10.66%
    Without McDavid 6.93

    5v5 SH% This year
    With McDavid 5.66
    WIthout McDavid 2.82

    There’s no question that more 5v5 goals will come.

    The SV% is in shitter too.

    Last year Talbot Goals Saved Above Average/100 shots: 1.32
    This year Talbot GSAA/100 -2.86

    He’ll come around.

  97. Woodguy v2.0 says:

    Pouzar:
    Jack Michaels‏Verified account @EdmontonJack2m2 minutes ago
    More
    Caggiula on IR; EDM treating Draisaitl as a concussion–therefore no timeline. Kelly won’t be signed just yet but a forward to be recalled.

    Yessa?

  98. SayItAin'tSo, Gretz, SayItAin'tSo! says:

    A couple thoughts

    1) I love Jordan Eberle, favourite Oiler from the Decade of darkness but everyone going ape shit today over “bleeding skilled talent” needs to take a hard look at the game logs from last year. Ebs had 3 goals in the first four games on McDavid’s line, after that it was routinely 6-10 game streaks without goals or points. He didn’t hit the ten goal mark until January 21st, 2017. Here’s a link to the game logs for reference

    https://www.hockey-reference.com/players/e/eberljo01/gamelog/2017

    I get folks are mad at how this season started but along with OP suggesting the numbers are whack and the eyes see it clearly this weird fawning over Everle’s offence is completely counterfactual to last season. I won’t get into the latest thing over missing his speed as well because again that is simply counterfactual.

    2) The special teams are a bit of a train wreck right now but that more than anything in my mind is due to the lack of games so far this year. Special teams swing wildly in small sample sizes.

    3) Ottawa as a good to great team eh? I’m quite sure the advanced stats from last season will show they’re a good team at getting peppered for 3/4 the game. They do have a knack for exploiting their chances though I’ll give them that. Still wouldn’t call them a good team though.

    4) Nurse is playing well this year. There’s still chaos but he’s playing well. Next step will be to combine that skating with a few more headman passes, he’s got that skill just needs to utilize it.

    5) Carolina as Nashville lite eh? Well they’re sporting a robust 1-1-1 with 7 goals for and 9 against. Seems like the Oilers don’t have a monopoly on slow starts.

    6)
    Lowetide,

    I like the look of this actually. Yamamoto May be too high up but I think this sets up pretty well give the playing styles. Also gets Strome with some skill who are closer to his style of play. Keep the McBlender on low for the road trip and see what happens.

    7) Matt Benning will draw back in Tuesday. It will have been over a week since his last game, hopefully he’s shaken the jitter bugs.

    8)
    Bag of Pucks,

    I think you’re bang on right here. Keep the same guys in the lineup and have them play actual NHL hockey every couple of days and I think we’ll see some of those distorted fancies that LT references above normalize. I can’t remember specifics but I believe there was quite a bit of wobble behind last years start (high PDO to be specific) that was showing a Talbot and McD overcoming some pretty lacklustre play overall. This year it’s the exact opposite where brain fart moments are sapping energy for a team with some shaky confidence. A couple big saves from Talbot or a lucky goal or two will do wonders.

    9) I believe the team is closer to what we saw in Calgary and Vancouver than the last two games. Here’s hoping they right the ship!

  99. Pouzar says:

    Woodguy v2.0: Yessa?

    Please Gawd No.

  100. Woodguy v2.0 says:

    OmJo:
    Woodguy v2.0,

    So basically go with two scoring lines, and two just-survive-out-there lines? The verbal on Strome was that he was the Eberle/Draisaitl RW replacement so might as well give him a shot there. What’s the worse that can happen?

    But then who centres the third line? Jokinen? Call up Malone?

    Personally I’m back on the Nuge for 1RW bandwagon myself.

    yeah, try to get two going is what I would do.

    Joikenen is good idea for 3C in that set up. Maybe Khaira.

  101. Woodguy v2.0 says:

    Lowetide:
    Bob Stauffer‏Verified account @Bob_Stauffer8m8 minutes ago
    More
    Maroon-McDavid-Yamamoto
    Lucic-RNH-Strome
    Khaira-Letestu-Kassian
    Pakarinen-Jokinen-Slepyshev

    Yeah, something like that. Except Drai in the Strome spot and Strome in the Yamamoto spot and Yamamoto in Spokane.

  102. Pouzar says:

    Jim Matheson‏ @NHLbyMatty 24s24 seconds ago
    More
    Oilers calling up another F with Caggiula on IR and Draisaitl with concussion. Best bet: Brad Malone who had good camp

  103. Pouzar says:

    Jim Matheson‏ @NHLbyMatty 17s18 seconds ago
    More
    Chris Kelly still practising on PTO. Not signed in Edm yet. Too close to max 50 pro contracts

  104. Woodguy v2.0 says:

    SayItAin’tSo, Gretz, SayItAin’tSo!,

    ) I love Jordan Eberle, favourite Oiler from the Decade of darkness but everyone going ape shit today over “bleeding skilled talent” needs to take a hard look at the game logs from last year.

    In my post I looked at all non-McDavid goals from the past two years.

    In terms of 5v5 scoring rate away from McDavid 4 of the top 5 are gone from last year.

    In terms of total 5v5 scoring rate away from McDavid 3 of the top 4 are gone.

    If we look at 15/16 there’s 3 more players there.

    Its not just Eberle, but all non-McDavid goal scorers that are gone except for RNH and Drai and they’re no screaming hell away from McDavid in terms of goal volume per minute.

  105. SayItAin'tSo, Gretz, SayItAin'tSo! says:

    Woodguy v2.0,

    Yes I saw your post and I like it/respect what it shows. I was specifically mentioning the verbal around Eberle over the last few days because it is a radical 180 from the verbal back in May is all.

    I agree the departure of all of those guys hurts and raises question marks as to where the offense is going to come from. but I also don’t want to draw too many conclusions on the replacements for Eberle/Pouliot/Pitlick after 4 games this season where the shooting percentage are so far out of whack for everyone.

    We both agree the team is gonna have to pickup it’s socks a bit offensively to say the least

  106. Woodguy v2.0 says:

    SayItAin'tSo, Gretz, SayItAin'tSo!:
    Woodguy v2.0,

    Yes I saw your post and I like it/respect what it shows. I was specifically mentioning the verbal around Eberle over the last few days because it is a radical 180 from the verbal back in May is all.

    I agree the departure of all of those guys hurts and raises question marks as to where the offense is going to come from. but I also don’t want to draw too many conclusions on the replacements for Eberle/Pouliot/Pitlick after 4 games this season where the shooting percentage are so far out of whack for everyone.

    We both agree the team is gonna have to pickup it’s socks a bit offensively to say the least

    Understood.

    Thanks.

  107. OriginalPouzar says:

    With MAF going on IR, now is the time to make the trade for Colin Miller and James Neal.

    What’s the acquisition cost? Ryan Strome, Ryan Mantha and ______????

  108. OriginalPouzar says:

    Pouzar:
    Jack Michaels‏Verified account @EdmontonJack2m2 minutes ago
    More
    Caggiula on IR; EDM treating Draisaitl as a concussion–therefore no timeline. Kelly won’t be signed just yet but a forward to be recalled.

    Thanks for the update Pouz.

    I hope the call-up is Brad Malone – it should not be Puljijarvi at this time, he needs a stretch of games down in the AHL – he is there for a reason.

  109. VOR says:

    TheVengeFulOne: IE, you have access to the NHL teams Steeva/DVsport/XOS video softwares where they align data with plays. From which you are employed by either a team or group of teams to log data and evaluate. Is that what I am hearing?

    And they would fire him in a heart beat if they found him presenting any of their data in any way shape or form on one of the most read blogs in hockey. Then they would sue him for every penny he possessed.

  110. Gerta Rauss says:

    OriginalPouzar:
    With MAF going on IR, now is the time to make the trade for Colin Miller and James Neal.

    What’s the acquisition cost?Ryan Strome, Ryan Mantha and ______????

    Darnell Nurse?

    *ducks

  111. Professor Q says:

    OriginalPouzar:
    With MAF going on IR, now is the time to make the trade for Colin Miller and James Neal.

    What’s the acquisition cost?Ryan Strome, Ryan Mantha and ______????

    A first? Maybe just a second?

  112. OriginalPouzar says:

    Gerta Rauss: Darnell Nurse?

    *ducks

    That should get it done in a hurry but that’s not really an option – not for a “maybe” 2nd pairing guy and a UFA.

    Nurse is looking like he’s taking the next step while there is a dumpster fire all around him – maybe its the surrounding fire that’s making him look better but he’s showing well in troubling times, at least to me.

  113. OriginalPouzar says:

    Professor Q: A first? Maybe just a second?

    Is the trade reasonable?

  114. Professor Q says:

    Lowetide: I want the widest net We can account for score effects although even with that last night as an enormous outlier. The process is working, but they need to house the roster with faster forwards who can shoot straight.

    Is there any word on why the net widening didn’t occur this year when they were planning for it, similar to the smaller pads?

  115. Professor Q says:

    OriginalPouzar: Is the trade reasonable?

    With the way Neal is playing unfortunately it might be not reasonable but necessary. I’m not sure how it fixes Vegas’ goaltending situation, however. Plus, I’m not sure if their trade-prone behaviour would extend to their RHD side, which is lacking even more than Edmonton’s.

    Not to mention their current record. They might not want to mess up their roster too much at the moment, despite circumstances.

    And I still wouldn’t trade Bear or Jones. We need a year or two of them in the AHL to see if they maintain raising their bars like they did in the WHL. We could have serious gems and it’d be a shame to pass on them this early for something else that might be underwhelming (as has been Edmonton’s misfortune).

  116. OmJo says:

    OriginalPouzar:
    With MAF going on IR, now is the time to make the trade for Colin Miller and James Neal.

    What’s the acquisition cost?Ryan Strome, Ryan Mantha and ______????

    Ryan Nugent-Hopkins. The ultimate 3-for-1.

  117. Professor Q says:

    thehop:
    Psyche,

    How bout the friggin team that shit kicked us last night.
    What are they going to look like when Karlsson is 100%?

    Instead of 6 goals a game, they’ll be scoring 10?

  118. Munny says:

    Two TDs in first 25 secs of Rams v. Jags

  119. OmJo says:

    OriginalPouzar: Thanks for the update Pouz.

    I hope the call-up is Brad Malone – it should not be Puljijarvi at this time, he needs a stretch of games down in the AHL – he is there for a reason.

    If they call up Malone, they’re taking his C away. Might it make more sense to call up JP and play him with Jokinen as his C on the third line? Or call up both Malone and JP and run Jokinen-Malone-JP at the 3Line?

  120. knighttown says:

    Here’s a stat for you. Of Edmontons full time wingers only Lucic wasn’t on the scrap heap in the past year or so. I’m defining scrap heap as waivers, AHL, NCAA, CHL or some sort of buyout or money retained transaction.

    Maroon, Jokinen and Kassian are money retained slash buyout.

    Drake and Yammer are NCAA or CHL

    Slepy, Khaira and Pakarainen are AHL fodder.

    Is this the worst group of wingers in the NHL?

    After spending fifteen years building and failing with elite wing talent, it’s like their new motto is that wingers have zero value so ONLY build with centre, defensemen and goalies.

    The skill they’ve given away in Hall, Eberle, Yak and even lesser players like Gagner, Barzal and Pitlick has left them completely barren.

  121. TheVengeFulOne says:

    knighttown:
    Maroon, Jokinen and Kassian are money retained slash buyout.

    Writing the word slash confused the hell out of me.

  122. Gerta Rauss says:

    OriginalPouzar: That should get it done in a hurry but that’s not really an option – not for a “maybe” 2nd pairing guy and a UFA.

    Nurse is looking like he’s taking the next step while there is a dumpster fire all around him – maybe its the surrounding fire that’s making him look better but he’s showing well in troubling times, at least to me.

    It sounds like Vegas wants to keep Miller, so a package of middling assets doesn’t get any interest from GMGM imo-it’s going to take an offer that Vegas can view as a long term asset

    I think Nurse for Miller is in the ballpark-I know many will disagree and that’s fine, but Nurse could be described as a “maybe 2nd pairing guy”- he’s looked good this year but he’s far from a proven top 4

    The UFA is off to a good start, and will probably fetch a late first (and maybe more if he keeps filling the net) closer to the deadline when teams can fit his $5M onto their roster.

  123. Professor Q says:

    As an aside, if only Auvito was a talented in hockey as his doppelgänger, Messi, is at football…

  124. Bag of Pucks says:

    Cassandra: Chiarelli traded Hall for Klefbom?When did that happen?

    It is just trolling to suggest Larsson is better than Klefbom or a #1 D, on this or any other team.

    When hes not wobbling, KBom’s offensive upside makes him the better overall player, but he IS wobbling a lot right now. On most nights Larsson is the better defender and for me, that’s job one for a Dman.

    I’ve not been impressed with Oscar’s positional play so far this young season. Too many mental errors and poor gap control.

  125. OriginalPouzar says:

    Professor Q: With the way Neal is playing unfortunately it might be not reasonable but necessary. I’m not sure how it fixes Vegas’ goaltending situation, however. Plus, I’m not sure if their trade-prone behaviour would extend to their RHD side, which is lacking even more than Edmonton’s.

    Not to mention their current record. They might not want to mess up their roster too much at the moment, despite circumstances.

    And I still wouldn’t trade Bear or Jones. We need a year or two of them in the AHL to see if they maintain raising their bars like they did in the WHL. We could have serious gems and it’d be a shame to pass on them this early for something else that might be underwhelming (as has been Edmonton’s misfortune).

    I know Vegas’ record is pretty good still but I trust their GM recognizes the small sample size and is continuing to look to the future which has clearly been his plan all along.

    With their starting goalie out, there is even more likelihood that the hot start is just that.

    If we can provide enough “futures”, I think there is a deal there I’m just not sure exactly what futures they require.

  126. OriginalPouzar says:

    OmJo: Ryan Nugent-Hopkins. The ultimate 3-for-1.

    Except that’s a terrible trade with Neal being a pending UFA – rental price to be paid (maybe a bit more if its early in the season) – Nuge is too much.

  127. OriginalPouzar says:

    OmJo: Ryan Nugent-Hopkins. The ultimate 3-for-1.

    Except that’s a terrible trade with Neal being a pending UFA – rental price to be paid (maybe a bit more if its early in the season) – Nuge is too much.

    OmJo: If they call up Malone, they’re taking his C away. Might it make more sense to call up JP and play him with Jokinen as his C on the third line? Or call up both Malone and JP and run Jokinen-Malone-JP at the 3Line?

    Yes, they are taking his C away but the can find another option down there – Malone is no Lander to start with – Currie or Hamilton should work just as well.

    Puljijarvi wasn’t ready for the NHL 10 days ago and I don’t think that has changed.

    He’s too important of a prospect to yo-yo – he deserves the opportunity to develop – 10 game stretch (maybe 40 but at least 10).

  128. OriginalPouzar says:

    Gerta Rauss: It sounds like Vegas wants to keep Miller, so a package of middling assets doesn’t get any interest from GMGM imo-it’s going to take an offer that Vegas can view as a long term asset

    I think Nurse for Miller is in the ballpark-I know many will disagree and that’s fine, but Nurse could be described as a “maybe 2nd pairing guy”- he’s looked good this year but he’s far from a proven top 4

    The UFA is off to a good start, and will probably fetch a late first (and maybe more if he keeps filling the net) closer to the deadline when teams can fit his $5M onto their roster.

    Miller is also far from proven as a 2nd pairing d-man and I believe that Nurse has a much higher ceiling than Miller.

    I will disagree with you on this one.

  129. hunter1909 says:

    knighttown: Is this the worst group of wingers in the NHL?
    After spending fifteen years building and failing with elite wing talent, it’s like their new motto is that wingers have zero value so ONLY build with centre, defensemen and goalies.
    The skill they’ve given away in Hall, Eberle, Yak and even lesser players like Gagner, Barzal and Pitlick has left them completely barren.

    JP appears to be struggling and Yamamoto is being sacrificed to the 1st 9 games of the season Oiler’s specialty meme which they traditionally destroy their 1st round picks(plus the big team’s league chances) with.

  130. godot10 says:

    Bag of Pucks:
    Younger Oil,

    If it makes you feel better, it’s likely Chia can’t resign both Connor AND Leon longterm without trading Eberle.

    But Chiarelli should have added what was necessary to Eberle to get Hamonic back instead of Strome.

  131. Jethro Tull says:

    We’re getting dangerously close to ‘compelting’ on here folks.

  132. Gerta Rauss says:

    OriginalPouzar: Miller is also far from proven as a 2nd pairing d-man and I believe that Nurse has a much higher ceiling than Miller.

    I will disagree with you on this one.

    I believe Nurse has a higher ceiling as well, and wouldn’t trade Nurse for Miller straight up.

    In a package that brought back Neal and Miller..?…maybe

    I think a package of Nurse and Strome gets a lot of interest from many teams

    I think it’s too early to panic(we’ve played 4 games for crying out loud) but if we
    continue to stumble early we could find ourselves too far back of the pack,and playoffs are no guarantee

  133. godot10 says:

    Bag of Pucks:
    As Oiler fans, we can never never complain about our luck in the lottery, but how much better is this team right now with Laine riding shotgun alongside McDavid?

    Based on probabilities, the Oilers were NOT unlucky with respect to Laine. I believe there was near 90% chance (certainly well over 50%) of the OIlers picking 3rd or 4th.

  134. Munny says:

    OriginalPouzar,

    That it will take an overpay?

    I think that is really Gerta’s point.

    There is no good reason for Vegas to trade Miller. They’re not unhappy with him. He plays a position they’re short at. Why would they want to make that imbalance even worse at a position that has the leanest supply of NHL players?

    I don’t think Nurse would do it, tbh. Strome is probably closer just because their roster needs C scoring more than it needs LD. But I doubt he’s enough to make Vegas want to deepen that wound at RHD.

    If it’s confidence issues, and that’s the way it looks to me, shaking up the dressing room drastically has a good chance of making things worse.

  135. TheVengeFulOne says:

    godot10: Based on probabilities, the Oilers were NOT unlucky with respect to Laine.I believe there was near 90% chance (certainly well over 50%) of the OIlers picking 3rd or 4th.

    26% they drafted in the top 2.

  136. Gerta Rauss says:

    Munny: If it’s confidence issues, and that’s the way it looks to me, shaking up the dressing room drastically has a good chance of making things worse.

    It might, but how long do you wait..? 10 games, 15..?…20..?

    We saw the discussion turn to firing McLellan last night (way too early imo) but I didn’t think the discussion was out of place

    We’re in unchartered territory after the decade of darkness-Tambellini wouldn’t(and didn’t) do a damn thing after a poor start

    I don’t think Chiarelli has the option of sitting on his hands

  137. leadfarmer says:

    godot10: But Chiarelli should have added what was necessary to Eberle to get Hamonic back instead of Strome.

    I think he should have just gone shopping elsewhere. He overpayed for what has been a declining asset for years

  138. Professor Q says:

    godot10: Based on probabilities, the Oilers were NOT unlucky with respect to Laine.I believe there was near 90% chance (certainly well over 50%) of the OIlers picking 3rd or 4th.

    They had less of a chance (12% vs. 26%) to draft 3rd OVR as opposed to 1st or 2nd OVR. They had a 35% chance to draft 4th OVR and 25% chance to draft 5th OVR. So yes, based on probabilities, they did get the position they were most likely to get. They were not unlucky (and were lucky to have not fallen further). Winnipeg was simply very lucky.

    Winnipeg only had a 7% chance to draft 1st OVR, 7.8% chance to draft 2nd OVR, and 8% chance to draft 3rd OVR! Then 0% until 7th OVR, where they had a 28% chance, and then a 40% chance for 8th OVR.

    They definitely leapfrogged Edmonton and 4 other teams, in that case. They were very lucky.

    Can you imagine, though, if the next-highest % chance other than Edmonton to draft 2nd got it?

    Vancouver.

    Laine and Horvat destroying 2nd lines, with the Sedins et al.

  139. leadfarmer says:

    Im pretty sure we’re the last team that should be complaining about draft lotto results

  140. godot10 says:

    Ottawa didn’t look outplayed last night. They were content to let the Oilers flail away from where they were flailing. The volume shooting of the Oilers was NOT disruptive to their structure.

    If the volume shooting doesn’t break down the structure of the opponent, then the shot metrics are going to mislead.

  141. McSorley33 says:

    knighttown,

    Great post…….

    Seems to be two camps ….the one camp is very surprised at non McDavids lack of scoring and think the group is doing good things. Just Unlucky.

    The other camp, is watching non McDavid forwards perform -nearly EXACTLY – as expected.

    I suspect Talbot is going to recover and luck will see some goals bounce off Milan’s ass here soon…

    But, in general, this is what I expected from them.

    I thought a teenager in Yamamoto might have been one of their best forwards last night.

    Two ways to look at that…..good for the kid but pity the other 40 watt bulbs.

  142. GMB3 says:

    Anyone else concerned with the complete lack of speed on left wing? Jesus that is a slow group of wingers.

  143. Lowetide says:

    Edmonton Oilers‏Verified account @EdmontonOilers now25 seconds ago
    More
    The #Oilers have recalled forward Brad Malone from the Bakersfield @Condors & placed forward Drake Caggiula on Injured Reserve.

    He’ll help on the PK.

  144. digger50 says:

    Bag of Pucks:
    If Garth Snow is trading for you, your stock is trending in the wrong direction.

    Possibly some good teams wanted Eberle, but if they did they weren’t willing to pay more than a Ryan Strome for him. That says a TON about Eberle.

    His market value was pretty much what you’d expect for a soft one dimensional winger with middling speed.

    I have no idea how or why you are defending this trade.

    Have you been watching Strome?

    “Yes but we got cap space”. What good has this done?

    But Eberle needed to go before we were forced. You really think we could of gotten a lower return?

    Very hard to defend this.

    For my opinion I stated before – Strome was the wrong target. Hamonic should have been the target. Or make a play at expansion but get a difference maker!! We cannot keep bleeding and hope Connor will provide the band aids.

  145. OriginalPouzar says:

    Lowetide:
    Edmonton Oilers‏Verified account @EdmontonOilersnow25 seconds ago
    More
    The #Oilers have recalled forward Brad Malone from the Bakersfield @Condors & placed forward Drake Caggiula on Injured Reserve.

    He’ll help on the PK.

    The right choice, in my opinion.

    I wonder if he’ll get in the lineup on Tuesday (over JJ I would think)?

    He should be able to help in the faceoff circle as well (I think).

  146. McSorley33 says:

    knighttown,

    Two camps in here.

    1.Those that are shocked at non McDavid scoring and just think the lads are unlucky.

    2. Those that see the non McDavid forwards performing exactly as they expected.

    Yes, there will be a few goals that bounce off Milan’s ass coming up but in general we are in need of help.

    I think a teenager was one of our better forwards last night and that is saying something.

    Drai needs to play C as soon as he returns.

  147. McSorley33 says:

    JP and Kailer can’t develop fast enough.

  148. McSorley33 says:

    GMB3,

    Yep.

    Now we have Brad Malone …..

    We may find it difficult to get in on the forecheck against Carolina….but we will see.

  149. digger50 says:

    Woodguy v2.0:
    Edmonton’s goalies have been the lesser in most every game this season, and at the other end Edmonton’s snipers are making every G they face look like Bernie Parent.

    I don’t think that’s avoidable this year without McDavid on the ice.

    Chiarelli has traded away/bought out/not-resigned almost every player who scored away from McDavid.

    The only two left are Maroon and Drai, and they mostly play with McDavid.

    Drai only scored well away from McDavid when with Hall though, so we don’t really know how often he can score away from McDavid.

    Drai’s 3 5v5 goals in 500 minutes away from McDavid isn’t a good early return.

    I was wondering about who is going to score without McDavid on the ice this year so I looked at both 15/16 and 16/17 without McDavid so see.

    Here is what I found:

    Starred (*) players no longer with the team.

    Oilers 5v5 Goal scorers away from McDavid in 15/16:
    PlayerIndividual Goals w/o McDavid

    *Taylor Hall17
    Leon Draisaitl14 (13 of these are with Hall)
    *Jordan Eberle7
    *Nail Yakupov5
    *Teddy Purcell8
    *Benoit Pouliot4
    Iiro Pakarinen5
    Zack Kassian3
    Ryan Nugent-Hopkins6
    *Matt Hendricks4
    *Lauri Korpikoski4
    Mark Letestu4
    *Anton Lander1

    Here are their goal scoring rates (5v5 G/60)

    *Taylor Hall0.89
    Leon Draisaitl0.83
    *Jordan Eberle0.71
    *Nail Yakupov0.60
    *Teddy Purcell0.60
    *Benoit Pouliot0.59
    Iiro Pakarinen0.56
    Zack Kassian0.48
    Ryan Nugent-Hopkins0.47
    *Matt Hendricks0.35
    *Lauri Korpikoski0.34
    Mark Letestu0.28
    Anton Lander0.11

    Here is where that rate would have ranked them among all NHL forwards with at least 300 minutes that year:
    *Taylor Hall63
    Leon Draisaitl86
    *Jordan Eberle126
    *Nail Yakupov189
    *Teddy Purcell189
    *Benoit Pouliot196
    Iiro Pakarinen213
    Zack Kassian256
    Ryan Nugent-Hopkins263
    *Matt Hendricks318
    *Lauri Korpikoski322
    Mark Letestu351
    *Anton Lander394

    So the only player left from 15/16 who scored at a better than 213th among NHL forwards is Drai.

    Here are the same 3 “goals without McDavid” metrics/rankings from last year

    5v5 Goals without McDavid

    Ryan Nugent-Hopkins10
    *Tyler Pitlick8
    *Jordan Eberle8
    *Benoit Pouliot8
    Patrick Maroon7
    Zack Kassian5
    *Matt Hendricks4
    Drake Caggiula4
    Milan Lucic4
    Anton Slepyshev3
    Leon Draisaitl3
    Mark Letestu2
    *David Desharnais2

    5v5 G/60 without McDavid

    *Tyler Pitlick1.83
    Patrick Maroon0.99
    *Matt Hendricks0.67
    *Jordan Eberle0.66
    *Benoit Pouliot0.65
    *David Desharnais0.61
    Ryan Nugent-Hopkins0.56
    Anton Slepyshev0.43
    Drake Caggiula0.42
    Zack Kassian0.36
    Leon Draisaitl0.36
    Milan Lucic0.35
    Mark Letestu0.17

    Here is where that rate would have ranked them among all NHL forwards with at least 300 minutes that year:
    *Tyler Pitlick1
    Patrick Maroon44
    *Matt Hendricks160
    *Jordan Eberle166
    *Benoit Pouliot171
    *David Desharnais207
    Ryan Nugent-Hopkins230
    Anton Slepyshev294
    Drake Caggiula299
    Zack Kassian334
    Leon Draisaitl334
    Milan Lucic340
    Mark Letestu388

    Obviously Pitlick ran hotter than the Suna and should be discounted heavily.

    Other than Maroon the non-McDavid scoring still left on the roster tops out at 256th in the NHL among forwards with 300+ minutes.

    30 of the 68 non- McDavid 5v5 goals were traded off the roster.

    Jokinen and Strome were the main two players brought in to replace that offence.Khaira was elevated, more expected out of Sleppy etc.

    Last year’s G/60 and rank among forwards
    Jokinen 0.33 – 343
    Strome 0.83 – 82

    So maybe Strome can replace some of those goals, but he needs to get off of the 3rd line.

    Who you play with matters a lot and he’s not going to pot a 0.83/60 on the 3rd.

    Chiarelli traded/bought out/didn’t re-sign a lot of EDM goal scoring over the last two years and hasn’t replaced much of it.

    Until 29 is running his own line (and he’s succeeding, not a full slam dunk to happen given his scoring away from 97 last year) there is no secondary scoring to speak of.

    The Oilers forwards will make a lot of goalies look like Parent because that’s who they are.

    This is too painful. I’m literally crying over my phone right now.

    Also: Yes Nuge and Drai need paired up to provide a secondary line. This will work. I see Nuge at center, Drai on wing.

    Edit: Dang, next time I will omit the loooonng original post.

  150. VOR says:

    godot10:
    Ottawa didn’t look outplayed last night.They were content to let the Oilers flail away from where they were flailing.The volume shooting of the Oilers was NOT disruptive to their structure.

    If the volume shooting doesn’t break down the structure of the opponent, then the shot metrics are going to mislead.

    Actually, a structure break down on the part of the opponents would show up in xG metrics. Based on Corsica Hockey Ottawa was having significant structural failure. The Oilers just didn’t capitalize on that structural failure.

  151. Réal Goudenyéu says:

    Another thing different than last year is expectations – they are much higher this year.

  152. OriginalPouzar says:

    McSorley33:
    JP and Kailer can’t develop fast enough.

    Not to mention Maksimov and Safin – years away though, sigh.

    I haven’t given up on Benson – he will lead the Condors next year.

  153. Chachi says:

    Jethro Tull:
    We’re getting dangerously close to ‘compelting’ on here folks.

    Way past compelting. People took the compelting off ramp many, many exits ago and there is no way back to reasonable.

  154. OriginalPouzar says:

    McSorley33:
    JP and Kailer can’t develop fast enough.

    Not to mention Maksimov and Safin – years away though, sigh.

    I haven’t given up on Benson – he will lead the Condors next year.

    digger50: This is too painful. I’m literally crying over my phone right now.

    Also: Yes Nuge and Drai need paired up to provide a secondary line. This will work. I see Nuge at center, Drai on wing.

    Edit: Dang, next time I will omit the loooonng original post.

    I’d be OK with those two on the same line but, yes, absolutely, Drai plays the wing.

    Nuge is a center and should remain at center.

    Strome actually doing, you know, something, as a 3C would really help.

  155. Dominoiler says:

    Nuclear leak:
    The coach himself said he’s no good at creating offence, his assistant Woodcroft is suppose to be a dynamo at it….

    Terrible breakouts, brutal half court game, capped with a power play that’s visible from Titan.

    The GM has traded away a majority of the teams offensive dynamo’s yet all these issues were made clear by Jumbo Joe as to why San Jose could never get over the hump.

    Billion shots from the outside with no systems in place to create any secondary chances, creativity with this squad is non existent.

    Three teams in a row clogged the middle, held the lines, and forced the Oilers outside.

    Coaches need a bag skate, team doesn’t need to be faster, coaches need some damn innovation.

    This is my fear as well; had given TMac the benefit of the doubt but my confidence is eroding.. seemed out coached in the Anaheim series and has seemed slow to react / line match and adapt.. we’ll see, hoping for the best of course..

  156. Chachi says:

    Woodguy v2.0: Who’s abandoning math?

    Also,

    5v5 SH% Last year
    With McDavid 10.66%
    Without McDavid 6.93

    5v5 SH% This year
    With McDavid 5.66
    WIthout McDavid 2.82

    There’s no question that more 5v5 goals will come.

    The SV% is in shitter too.

    Last year Talbot Goals Saved Above Average/100 shots: 1.32
    This year Talbot GSAA/100 -2.86

    He’ll come around.

    You, of course, are not abandoning math. You are using numbers from 1 or 2 years ago and trying to use them to show that the Oilers are going to have trouble scoring this year. Very reasonable, but not at all a certainty. Not even close to a certainty. The Oilers are betting that a lot of young players who don’t have much of a track record yet are going to contribute in a way that is similar to the players the Oilers have let go the last couple of years. Might work out, might not. We’ll see.

  157. Chachi says:

    VOR: Actually, a structure break down on the part of the opponents would show up in xG metrics. Based on Corsica Hockey Ottawa was having significant structural failure. The Oilers just didn’t capitalize on that structural failure.

    Yup.

  158. godot10 says:

    VOR: Actually, a structure break down on the part of the opponents would show up in xG metrics. Based on Corsica Hockey Ottawa was having significant structural failure. The Oilers just didn’t capitalize on that structural failure.

    The shot models are still in their infancy. They don’t capture defensive positioning on the shot. They don’t capture shot velocity (speed and direction). They don’t capture goalie positioning. They don’t capture puck movement before the shot.

    The eye test says it is “rope-a-dope” if the defensive structure is not compromised. The second chances from the high danger areas have been weak. The defensive structure remained intact.

    Hypothesis: When “volume shooting” goes into a slump, the volume of shots doesn’t go down, the shot quality goes down.

    A lot of punches were landing harmlessly on Floyd Mayweather’s left shoulder.

  159. New Improved Darkness says:

    Woodguy v2.0: Here’s a link to basically the same thing I wrote, but on twitter with fancy charts! https://twitter.com/Woodguy55/status/919597766812221440

    America plays in a uniquely cap-free league, but one could analyze the British military posture in exclusion of their oft-ignored nuclear capability (which happens to be confined to submarine launch—one learns something new every day).

    Also, interestingly, the British never implemented a CRM 114 Discriminator, so their submarine commanders can (apparently) on their own initiative—the inner workings are all so stiff upper lip—pile onto whichever bozo from the Bad Hair for Men club initiates the Final Conflagration, in a patriotic spitball of spiteful insurrection. How like the British to dispense with football-toting SS optics, and rely instead upon the tried-and-true 007-at-large fighting spirit.

    [*] Secret service.

    Here’s the question: should the British military be so constructed as to remain pertinent to geopolitical power projection after absenting their nuclear capability?

    It is even possible to construct it both ways at the same time, on a fixed budget?

  160. Woodguy v2.0 says:

    New Improved Darkness,

    Great to read you again.

    I hope you and your Lemon Tree are well.

  161. wood99 says:

    Long time reader,rarely post. Ifind it ironic that you monitor certain posters, but seems to others are above reproach.Woodguy is very well spoken but can be very rude without ever getting called on it.If you don’t agree with him right away you are the dummy.

  162. VOR says:

    Godot,

    Dave Staples had the scoring chances 15-10 in Edmonton’s favor and the Grade A scoring chances 8-5. I find it hard to believe that leaving Jussi Jokinen home free point blank not once but twice doesn’t represent a complete system breakdown on Ottawa’s part. If he buries those two chances the Oilers are back in it. Truthfully your eyes are not agreeing with the new metrics and you aren’t agreeing with what has become (as flawed as it is) the gold standard in eye tests.

  163. GMB3 says:

    wood99:
    Long time reader,rarely post. Ifind it ironic that you monitorcertain posters, butseems to others are above reproach.Woodguy is very well spoken but can be very rude without ever getting called on it.If you don’t agree with him right away you are the dummy.

    Season not played is that you? Clever coming at woodguy with wood in your username

  164. Mr. D. says:

    “Gryba defending air” on the goal…interesting… seems Sleprockochev bobbled the puck and Phanoof pinched. Momentum was moving up the ice. Avitu was way to soft.

  165. Lowetide says:

    wood99:
    Long time reader,rarely post. Ifind it ironic that you monitorcertain posters, butseems to others are above reproach.Woodguy is very well spoken but can be very rude without ever getting called on it.If you don’t agree with him right away you are the dummy.

    I wish all of us could get along and refrain from going outside the lines at all times, but it is impossible. I’m certain that if someone else was moderating this site this blog’s author would have been in the outhouse from time to time. In fact, I bet you would be shocked to your shoes to find out some of the names who received time outs. That said, I’m absolutely not perfect and your criticism may be well founded, but I do my best and try not to be influenced.

    I do draw the line at personal attacks and that is what you may be referring to in this recent case. I have zero problem defending my actions in that case.

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