Wheat Kings and Pretty Things

In Canadian musical history, there are dozen of songs—Canadian Railroad Trilogy, Snowbird, Helpless, Circle Game, New Mother Nature—that perfectly describe who and what we are. The magic of the Hip comes in the sheer number of songs that speak to us, about us, in our own language. No artist in our lifetime focused so much on the people of this country and the things that bring us together to make us unique. Whoever comes after, has gigantic shoes to fill. RIP Gord Downie. Wheat kings and pretty things, let’s just see what the morning brings.

It’s possible to have good numbers and get noticed for negative things—single moments and events can have super importance while being exactly single moments and events. The Edmonton Oilers have this habit of getting behind early and not being able to catch up, the club seems to be putting bad single events in an early first period cluster. They’ll figure it out, the numbers suggest this team is far better than 1-4-0 and should be a contender this year. I remain convinced the club is auditioning in too many places and it’s going to cost them. Will it mean finishing outside the playoffs? That’s the calculation being done by Peter Chiarelli this morning.

START! YEAR OVER YEAR

  • Oilers in October 2015: 1-4-0, goal differential -5
  • Oilers in October 2016: 4-1-0, goal differential +4
  • Oilers in October 2017: 1-4-0, goal differential -8

You can’t contend with a -8 goal differential in five games, but there’s some evidence this Oilers team has been playing in some bad luck. Would you rather have a strong possession team looking for better goaltending and better decisions from veterans, or a team with a better record getting caved in all areas but goaltending?

Can this team hang around long enough to finish strong? By the time Andrej Sekera gets back into the lineup this club might be at 20 losses or more. I’m not suggesting panic in the streets but this team may need a helping hand from the general manager.

WHAT TO EXPECT IN OCTOBER

  • At home to: Calgary (Expected: 1-0-0) (Actual 1-0-0)
  • On the road to: Vancouver  (Expected: 1-0-0) (Actual: 0-1-0)
  • At home to: Winnipeg, Ottawa, Carolina (Expected 1-1-1) (Actual: 0-3-0)
  • On the road to: Chicago, Philadelphia, Pittsburgh (Expected 1-1-1) (Actual 0-0-0)
  • At home to: Dallas, Washington (Expected 1-1-0) (Actual 0-0-0)
  • Overall expected result: 5-3-2, 12 points in 10 games 
  • Current results: 1-4-0, 2 points after five games

We’re halfway through the month and at this point the club would have to run the table to meet my stated expectations. The line in the sand (12 points in 10 games) isn’t a terribly high bar but the formula of one year ago isn’t working. Connor McDavid is on a pace to score 98 points (100 a year ago) so he’s living up to his end of the bargain. The goaltending? The group allowed 207 goals in 2016-17, they will allow 312 if they continue along this road all year. Andrej Sekera may be returning to sad state of affairs.

DEFENSE, LAST NIGHT

  • Nurse-Larsson went 9-10 together after Klefbom was moved down the depth chart. Nurse went 6-7 against Teravainen-Staal-Williams, Larsson 4-7. Nurse looked like he was hurt at the end of the second period but returned for the third. Something to keep in mind for Thursday, sometimes those leg issues become a factor.
  • Klefbom-Russell went 6-5 together in around six minutes together. Klefbom was 2-4 with Larsson. Russell picked up another assist on a really nice play (pass to Jokinen) and is now 1-2-3 on the season. Looks like he’s going to get power-play time (4:31 last night) when Matt Benning isn’t in the lineup. I thought Auvitu would be a better option but Russell got the nod. Oscar is having a tough run here, might need to back him off a little until he finds his game.
  • Auvitu-Gryba were 19-5 together, complete rage in the cage in possession. Gryba went 9-4 against the Skinner line. Auvitu’s Corsi is ridiculous, he was better last night but there’s a lot of chaos.
  • Laurent Brossoit stopped 16 of 21, I don’t think he was especially sharp. I can agree they were 10-bell chances but you need the goaler to save you sometimes and it didn’t happen.
  • Numbers via NaturalStatTrick and NHL.com.

FORWARDS

  • Connor McDavid seemed to kick out the jams in the second period and get himself into the game. I suspect he’ll be giving defensemen fits on the road trip. I’m reading things like ‘he’s not right’ but six points in five games has him on track with last year’s total and his line is the one kicking out the jams every night.
  • Patrick Maroon took a dumb penalty and got benched, think he was more involved afterward and had a couple of nice chances. He needs to find the range.
  • Kailer Yamamoto earned another game and really unleashed some shots last night. I don’t know if he hangs around all year but my goodness he’s a talented young player. Slepyshev is coming on now, we’ll see if Leon makes the road trip.
  • Zack Kassian barely played. Flu?
  • Ryan Strome had easily his best game. Not even close. Fabulous goal and an even better assist.
  • Jussi Jokinen has joined the battle. Flat out lovely pass for the Strome goal.
  • Anton Slepyshev is finding the range now, suspect we’ll see him move up the depth chart soon.
  • Milan Lucic made a poor decision on the power play that was the back breaker in the game, scored a nice goal later in the third period.
  • Brad Malone played well enough to get another game, bad news for Jujhar Khaira.
  • Iiro Pakarinen also played pretty well, suspect we’ll see him in the lineup on the road trip depending on the health of Leon Draisaitl and Drake Caggiula.
  • Mark Letestu scored on the power play. He’s going to get a good contract next summer  if he can pop 16 goals again this season.

HAMMER TIME

I’m not going to hammer on this team today. For me, much of the story has to do with single events becoming major stories in-game. The bigger picture, the part that has come to be known as process, looks strong for this team warts and all. You can’t pull Leon Draisaitl and Andrej Sekera out of a lineup and remain complete, and you can’t win when the opponent’s goalie is better than your man. I don’t know that the Oilers are going to win the division or even make the playoffs, but do know they are better than their record as we stand here today.

If we’re looking for a fix, that’s where Peter Chiarelli comes in. As stated many times on this blog, I don’t agree with the massive number of auditions for what should be a contending team. Darnell Nurse/Matt Benning in a top 4D role, Yohann Auvitu as a regular, Kailer Yamamoto in a feature role, full auditions for Anton Slepyshev and Drake Caggiula.

This team is 1-4-0. All of the clubs Edmonton is chasing will have similar two week runs during the season. The key for the Oilers is to arrive at Game 20 with 10 wins. I don’t know if they can get there without some help from the general manager. 2RHD, 2R. The song remains the same. Oscar Klefbom, Patrick Maroon, Milan Lucic, all of these men did things that cost the team last night, but they also need to be part of the solution. I don’t think these men are lazy and don’t believe they forgot how to play the game. Sometimes nothing rhymes for a reason, but the only one I buy this morning is this team has too many auditions happening at the same time. I don’t think challenging the heart of this team makes sense in any way. It’s not about the heart, it’s about what’s knocking around in heads.

LOWDOWN WITH LOWETIDE

At 10 this morning, a melancholy day for all Canadians. Dammit Gord Downie. Scheduled to appear, TSN1260:

  • Darcy McLeod, Because Oilers. Last night’s game and what should Peter Chiarelli do?
  • Yukon Jack, 100.3 The Bear. RIP Gord Downie.
  • Derek Taylor, TSN. The CFL playoff picture is coming into view. Is this the year crossing over works?
  • Minnia Feng, The Athletic. Minnia wrote an article about Kailer Yamamoto and his love of the game. We’ll chat about it.
  • Jeff Krushell, Krush Performance. Damn Yankees!

10-1260 text, @Lowetide on twitter. 90 minutes!

 

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200 Responses to "Wheat Kings and Pretty Things"

  1. Pouzar says:

    RIP Gord.

    When I saw you at the Halifax Metro Centre in Feb of ’95, just a few days shy of your 30th birthday,you were already this young man’s hero.

    https://www.setlist.fm/setlist/the-tragically-hip/1995/halifax-metro-centre-halifax-ns-canada-4bd24fbe.html

  2. Pouzar says:

    Quenneville said Corey Crawford would start Wednesday’s game with Anton Forsberg likely getting the call for Thursday’s game against the Oilers. Quenneville said it can be tempting to play Crawford all the time when he is playing this well but said he has to keep a long-range view of Crawford’s stamina.

    “We need both guys playing and (Crawford) needs rest,” Quenneville said. “That’s always an easy decision on the back-to-back games.”

  3. D says:

    The game the Oilers played in period 2 and 3 makes me believe that they are due for a breakout. This road trip will be good for them.

  4. OriginalPouzar says:

    I though the team played pretty well, generally, last night.

    It wasn’t just score effects, they carried the play from start to finish. Unfortunately, they made a number of high end egregious errors which ended up in our next ever time.

    Bad pinch by Klef 10 seconds in leading to a 2 on 1 – goal
    Nuge giving up on a back-check – goal
    Lucic and Klef being terrible at the offensive blue line – goal

    Would have been nice if our goalie made a save.

  5. OriginalPouzar says:

    I do like the change in the defensive pairings that McLellan went to for a material part of the game. As I’ve been craving for a week now, split the top pairing so that there is a left anchor and a right anchor in the top two pairings:

    Nurse/Larsson
    Klef/Russel
    Auvitu/Grya

    With Benning back next game, I’d like to see:

    Nurse/Larsson
    Klef/Benning
    Russell/Gryba

    OR

    Nurse/Larsson
    Klef/Russell
    Auvitu/Benning

  6. Jethro Tull says:

    I would suggest that individual errors are becoming an important stat like in baseball and tennis. Forced and unforced errors leading to HDSC against? Could be something here. Programming this morning, so will give it some thought.

  7. Jethro Tull says:

    Maybe is the new maybe….

  8. OriginalPouzar says:

    I don’t think its “bad luck” that is the Oilers issue. I think its a function of generally playing well but making high-level egresious mistakes that are ending up in the back of our net combined with our goalies not making a save – like never!

    Talbot will start making saves, of that I’m confident.

    Will the team stop making egregious errors? I would like to think so but they’ve been making them for a decade – this is a regression to levels prior to last year and I think its a function of players having to play up in the lineup and are therefore prone to more mistakes.

    With that said, the mistakes last night were made by the upper tier players – Nuge, Klef, etc.

  9. godot10 says:

    Danger Will Robinson. We are approaching a “volume shooting singularity”. We are near “criticality”.

  10. thehop says:

    Roadside attraction in Camrose. Changed my paradigm.

    I keep reading comments about the goalers. That breakaway needed to be stopped but how do you hang the poor play and poor record on Talbot and Broissoit?

    Nurse is the only guy on the back end playing well. The Swedish duo look like a couple meatballs so far and Russell is what he is.

  11. OriginalPouzar says:

    I’m going to posit the first guest on the Lowdown is not going to be kind to Milan Lucic.

  12. SayItAin'tSo, Gretz, SayItAin'tSo! says:

    LT I don’t disagree with your point re: auditioning too many pieces but it doesn’t seem like those pieces are the ones that are having backbreaking errors end up in the back of the net (aside from Aivutu on Hoffman.)

    Last night, Oscar had the same case of yips that got Matt Benning two games in the pressbox and the blockhead moves by Looch and Maroon were just that, absolutely blockheaded.

    Ya Chia could make a trade and I’m not opposed to the idea provided the assets received and sent are similar but aside from the coveted 2RD which could cost a lot I don’t see how that really fixes what ails the team.

    I still say Chia should stand pat for the next few games. The schedule has finally normalized, the team will be in hotel rooms for the next two weeks and I think we’ll see things gel now.

    Goalering is a different story though. I agree with your take that LB wasn’t sharp, 5 goals on 21 shots is bad news bears. Men in the pipes need to tighten up because I don’t think there is a reinforcement option for this spot.

    The PDO has fallen off the map in the last two games. At the end of losing streaks you sometimes continue to lose games you should win. The team could go gangbusters in the next couple of contests here and it shouldn’t be a surprise.

  13. frjohnk says:

    2 points out of a possible 10.

    We need to hit a 99 point pace ( over a full year) for the rest of the year to hit 94 points. Which is what the 8th place team got last year in the West.

    I believe this team will make the playoffs, but starting this far back, will make the journey just a bit tougher.

  14. frjohnk says:

    OriginalPouzar:
    I’m going to posit the first guest on the Lowdown is not going to be kind to Milan Lucic.

    LT got Chia as first guest?

    congrats LT

  15. godot10 says:

    McDavid plays 25 minutes a night. Matthews plays 19. Who will be fresher in June in the Stanley Cup Finals?

    https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=P6_X7PMN99Y

  16. OriginalPouzar says:

    D:
    The game the Oilers played in period 2 and 3 makes me believe that they are due for a breakout.This road trip will be good for them.

    I’m looking forward to a successful road trip – this is exactly what they need – good teams on the road.

    Lets go boys!

  17. Professor Q says:

    A very sad day, but hopefully, one of hope. For Gord’s message and symbolism and what The Tragically Hip came to mean and hold Canada accountable for.

    Brilliant work, in and out of the studio. The latter now becomes even more important and dire, so we don’t lose faith or desire to change and be better (if only it hadn’t taken Gord to make it more mainstream).

    And also great work for mental health and brain health awareness.

  18. dustrock says:

    (1) I don’t know where Playoff Klef-Lars went to, but holy hannah they need to get back.

    (2) Are we at the point where we start thinking Lucic really has fallen off a cliff and we have 5 more years of this?

    (3) This is being melodramatic because it’s fun to be melodramatic, but the last time I remember the Oilers playing fairly well, but having trouble with the PK, making high-event errors, and getting crap from their goalies, was the Dallas Eakins era.

    (4) Slavin did a number on McDavid last night.

    After all the tanking, serious question: absent McDavid, would you rather have Carolina’s roster or Edmonton’s roster?

  19. SayItAin'tSo, Gretz, SayItAin'tSo! says:

    godot10,

    The Oilers have won the HDSC battle in every game in all situations this season quite handily.

    https://www.naturalstattrick.com/games.php?season=20172018&stype=2&sit=all&team=EDM&team2=All&rate=n

    The Heat Map (again all situations) 1/3 of the way down shows a large number of chances 10ft from the net during last nights game

    https://www.naturalstattrick.com/game.php?season=20172018&game=20089

    Here is the heat map for the Sens game
    https://www.naturalstattrick.com/game.php?season=20172018&game=20073

    I like most of your commentary but unless I’m reading these maps incorrectly they flat out contradict the line about volume shooting from non-HDSC areas.

  20. Pouzar says:

    OriginalPouzar: Nurse/Larsson
    Klef/Benning
    Russell/Gryba

    Obvious pairings to try. Been calling for it forever. Won’t happen because Russell is a Top 4.

  21. dustrock says:

    Professor Q:
    A very sad day, but hopefully, one of hope. For Gord’s message and symbolism amd what The Tragically Hip came to mean and hold Canada accountable for.

    Brilliant work, in and out of the studio. The latter now becomes even more important and dire, so we don’t lose faith or desire to change and be better (if only it hadn’t taken Gord to make it more mainstream).

    And also great work for mental health and brain health awareness.

    Agreed on all fronts. Seems like the ending of an era and I’m not sure Canada is in a better place now than in the prime of the Hip.

  22. godot10 says:

    dustrock:

    (3) This is being melodramatic because it’s fun to be melodramatic, but the last time I remember the Oilers playing fairly well, but having trouble with the PK, making high-event errors, and getting crap from their goalies, was the Dallas Eakins era.

    So I’m not the only one having flashbacks of being Lost in Dementorville.

    I just repeat my “safe” mantra.

    #ThoroughlyMediocreCoach #ThoroughlyMediocreCoach #ThoroughlyMediocreCoach

    to control the #PostDementorStressSyndrome

  23. PigeonCamera says:

    Like most of you, I found out about Gord Downey’s passing, after barely being awake this morning, and it hit me like the side of a building. Canada lost one of her greatest poets, greatest musicians, and most beloved sons. Day for Night is one of my “list 3 albums you’d be stranded on a desert island with” standbys. I’m really sad, knowing that the song is really over now.

    On our Oilers…it will get better, but will it get better in time is really the question. I noticed a lot of the players fighting the puck, flubbing what seem like reasonable pass attempts (Milan, the pass should be on the tape, not aimed at the pants.) I love Yamamoto, but he seems to panic when he gets the puck and try to move it too quickly. Normal for a rookie, I think. I think that Carolina’s breakouts were a beautiful thing, and it just shows that the Oilers’ D still needs work.

  24. JimmyV1965 says:

    thehop,

    You’re certainly correct that our defence is awful, but their goalie stopped a breakaway and ours didn’t. And I would argue that the goal Bross let in was on a weak, very stoppable shot, whereas Ward made a really good save on a nice play.

  25. JustWatt says:

    SayItAin’tSo, Gretz, SayItAin’tSo!:

    The PDO has fallen off the map in the last two games. At the end of losing streaks you sometimes continue to lose games you should win. The team could go gangbusters in the next couple of contests here and it shouldn’t be a surprise.

    I really want to believe you are right about this. The offense started to look like it was coming together in the second half of the game. Can they outscore their mistakes until the goalering and D start to return to form?

  26. RMGS says:

    Salt in the wound: the Toronto Maple Leafs are 5-1 and with very good underlying numbers to boot.

  27. godot10 says:

    SayItAin’tSo, Gretz, SayItAin’tSo!:
    godot10,

    The Oilers have won the HDSC battle in every game in all situations this season quite handily.

    https://www.naturalstattrick.com/games.php?season=20172018&stype=2&sit=all&team=EDM&team2=All&rate=n

    The Heat Map (again all situations) 1/3 of the way down shows a large number of chances 10ft from the net during last nights game

    https://www.naturalstattrick.com/game.php?season=20172018&game=20089

    Here is the heat map for the Sens game
    https://www.naturalstattrick.com/game.php?season=20172018&game=20073

    I like most of your commentary but unless I’m reading these maps incorrectly they flat out contradict the line about volume shooting from non-HDSC areas.

    I am not denying the stats. One might argue that I’ve somewhat backed off from the other day. Near criticality or near a singularity, fluctuations become larger and larger. With the Oilers, we are experiencing on hell of a tail event or we are near a singularity.

    Do we mean revert or have we reaching a tipping point? Tail event or singularity?

  28. Melman says:

    “single moments and events can have super importance while being exactly single moments and events.”

    Hi LT, can you, or someone else who understands this, explain this to me. I know you use the reference often, but intuitively I can 100% buy into the statement. The only way this holds true is if each “event” is treated equally. A mistake at 2-2 that leads to a goal has a greater effect on result than a mistake with a 5-1 lead. If the assumption is one of the fundamentals of analytics, then I can see why coaches and GM’s have a hybrid mentality of using analytics but not relying on them solely or in a vacuum. Unlike baseball, momentum and flow is part of hockey.

  29. godot10 says:

    RMGS:
    Salt in the wound: the Toronto Maple Leafs are 5-1 and with very good underlying numbers to boot.

    And Matthews is playing under 20 minutes per game. So Babcock is not even close to pedal-to-the-metal yet.

  30. vinotintazo says:

    Just gotta eliminate the mental mistakes, I like how the team is working hard, they will turn it around. Seems like everytime we need a goal they just hit the Post :'(

  31. flea says:

    First it was Connor imitating Allan the analytics guy.

    Then Coach Todd asking where the analytics guys were at the rink.

    And in the final, ultimate troll, McClellan has purposely set up his system to produce excellent analytical numbers but lose games, and lose badly.

    Take that analytics guys!

  32. McSorley33 says:

    Jethro Tull,

    I would suggest that individual errors are becoming an important stat like in baseball and tennis. Forced and unforced errors leading to HDSC against? Could be something here. Programming this morning, so will give it some thought.

    *****************************************************************************************
    This.

    In general, we have been playing well. But like being an Air Traffic Controller, a couple of Klefbom and Looch moments and nobody will be talking about how good your numbers are.

    Milan Lucic is not unlucky. He is a turnover machine who struggles to make routine plays at times.

    This is what he is….

  33. JimmyV1965 says:

    I’m may be way off base here but I think some of the blame falls squarely on the shoulders of TMac. At the Penticton tournament he did an interview with John Shannon saying he was worried the team would not start the season well. Why say this publically even before the pre-season starts? When the team lost a couple games he called out McDavid in the media. (He didn’t mention names but we all know who he was talking about) He enforced some tough love during practice when the team was 1-2. I’m all for line juggling, but he has been absolutely manic this year. I think he overreacted early on. What message does this send to his players? This to me demonstrates his lack of confidence in the team and now they are playing with zero confidence. Guys are gripping their sticks way too tight right now and at least some of that comes from the top. I know this is all speculation, but if the coach showed more confidence in his team early on, they might play with more confidence.

  34. Professor Q says:

    RMGS:
    Salt in the wound: the Toronto Maple Leafs are 5-1 and with very good underlying numbers to boot.

    Kucherov and Kuznetsov are leading the League in Points and Assists, as well.

    While Draisaitl is having a particularly unfortunate time.

  35. SayItAin'tSo, Gretz, SayItAin'tSo! says:

    JustWatt,

    That’s a great question.

    As I watch the replays of the goals against the real bugger is that all of them are routine stoppable from a defensive perspective.

    Goal 1 – No way Klef should have made that pinch, no way in hell, but Teravainen was on his backhand on his off-wing, Lars closed off the pass but LB got beat wide side from high in the circle circle. Teravainen is a good shooter but that shouldn’t have gone in if LB is out cutting down that angle properly which Larsson gave him the space to do. All to say this is easily preventable

    Goal 2 – Bad point shot bounce but Larsson is in no man’s land screening his goalie and not blocking the shot.

    Goal 3 – This one made klef look really bad. He chased, got beat, failed to cut off the pass or take his man’s stick and as the puck crossed the line he fell on his ass. Ugly play, but again this is preventable. There are about 3 separate mistakes that Klef could have corrected on to prevent that goal. He failed on all three.

    Goal 4 – Ugly, uglier and ugliest here. Looch’s pass was bad, but the fumble was worse. LB way back in his net again.

    Goal 5 – Nuge looses a battle (could have been a penalty on Staal) and then the miscue happens and honestly I find this one the most aggravating. Nuge never once looks over his should to check if he’s got a man busting wide, this is heresy on a two on two rush where your lead rusher is already moving towards the middle where your two towering Dmen (Nurse/Lars) are waiting for him, Nuge then stops skating once he catches up which is heresy #2. Heresy #3 happens when Larsson never removes his eye from the puck to signal to Nuge that a man is busting wide on him. If Larsson looks up and points Slavin out this play is DOA. Instead Larsson overcommits to his left (maybe he didn’t trust Nurse?) but half asses it by using his stick instead of his body leaving the passing lane wide open for the streaking Slavin. LB is still searching for his jock strap after overcommitting something fierce on the pass and boom in 5-3. Again this one is the most frustrating because the three errors here are routine plays you learn back in peewee and were made by guys who are considered the Oilers defensive stalwarts.

    I’m still very optimistic though.

    The numbers over at NaturalStatTrick are telling me that Chicago is playing pretty damn loose right now and might be riding a PDO train and some shooting luck. They’re giving up a lot of shots and the Leafs skated circles around them the other night. The Oilers can win that game. Same applies to Washington, lots of chances from the outside but they’re getting caved on HDSCs for.

    Looseness early in the year is too be expected so hopefully the Oil tighten up at the right time.

    Now about that PK….

  36. Woodguy v2.0 says:

    godot10: So I’m not the only one having flashbacks of being Lost in Dementorville.

    I just repeat my “safe” mantra.

    #ThoroughlyMediocreCoach #ThoroughlyMediocreCoach #ThoroughlyMediocreCoach

    to control the #PostDementorStressSyndrome

    It reminds me a lot of 14/15 when Eakins was coach.

    Then the team was playing well enough to be 50% in most of the key metrics but couldn’t get a save.

    This year the team is above average in most of the metric but can’t get a save.

    I wonder what the common thread between the two years are………

  37. thehop says:

    JimmyV1965,

    Totally agree… goalies get paid to make saves on breakaways.

  38. digger50 says:

    Good news last night is we found out that Strome can play the hockey. If his performance is repeatable then I see this as a sigh of relief.

    If Strome can fill that third line center position and break even,that is gold.

    This will allow us to load up two top lines and play the heck out of them.

    Maroon. Connor. ?
    Lucic. Nuge. Drai

  39. russ99 says:

    Sorry guys, I don’t buy this “the goalie didn’t make a save” nonsense.

    This is all tied in to this grand unified Corsi puck mover theory where defense doesn’t exist, all defensemen need to be puck movers, the exit pass is everything and the goalie is supposed to bail everything bad out.

    There’s whiffing on a shot and there’s giving the opposition a clear view with time and space and no pressure from a opposing skater. And once is bad enough, 3 times is a different story.

    My other takeaway is that McDavid really needs to stop passing the puck back when he gets the zone, it’s limiting his chances.

  40. Nuclear leak says:

    This squad isn’t right, GM needs to do something to address his roster short comings and coaches need to figure out how to create a system thats gets the Oilers some space in the slots.

    Last few games have felt like Eakins *spits* has been pulling the strings.

    On the road trip hopefully something takes place that gets this team playing like a team again instead of a bunch of individuals cheering on Mcdavid. Todd needs to figure out how to get his team to produce when the opposition clogs the middle and collapses the box.

    Maroon deserves a demotion, he’s been nothing but gold since he’s arrived but his head seems to be up his ass so far and can’t have that when you running beside the best player in the world.

    Yamamoto isn’t helping the Oilers win games not are they helping him develop properly running him with the best player in the world. Regardless of the roster insufficiency for his career longevity send him back, they need his elc for when the mammoths kick in.

    Blowing a 1/3 of it this year is terrible management.

    Going to end up with Evander Kane and 6pts out of 8th come April.

  41. Chachi says:

    godot10:
    McDavid plays 25 minutes a night.Matthews plays 19.Who will be fresher in June in the Stanley Cup Finals?

    https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=P6_X7PMN99Y

    McDavid has played more than 25 minutes in a game twice this year. In the other games he played 21:09, 21:16 and 19:32.

    Average number of shifts per game by McDavid this year – 25.4
    Average number of shifts per game by Matthews so far this year – 24.8

    You really nailed it with your analysis on this one.

  42. Chachi says:

    Woodguy v2.0: It reminds me a lot of 14/15 when Eakins was coach.

    Then the team was playing well enough to be 50% in most of the key metrics but couldn’t get a save.

    This year the team is above average in most of the metric but can’t get a save.

    I wonder what the common thread between the two years are………

    I know! I know!

  43. anjinsan says:

    The Oilers have their stars and then a substantial hole where other teams have a bunch of good, quick, skilled players.

    Lucic is being paid star money but he’s not a star talent.
    Maroon isn’t a good, quick, skilled player; he’s just ok+.
    Russell is being paid like a good player and he is just ok+.
    RNH is this kind of player, even potential good++, but he’s being system-play constrained.
    Strome is good–.

    When you have Letestu playing PP as opposed to Elias Lindholm or Teravainen, you’re missing 2nd tier talent.

  44. Chachi says:

    anjinsan: When you have Letestu playing PP as opposed to Elias Lindholm or Teravainen, you’re missing 2nd tier talent.

    PP goals last year:

    Mark Letestu 11
    Elias Lindholm 2
    Teuvo Teravainen 5

  45. TheVengeFulOne says:

    It’s one thing to say a goalie had no chance in a beer league, but they have a shot at most everything in the nhl. Expecting near zero defensive breakdowns if less realistic than expecting the goalie to make a key save.

  46. Bag of Pucks says:

    Todd McLellan has 427 career wins as an NHL head coach.

    If we could all be that ‘thoroughly mediocre’ at our jobs, the world would be a much better place.

  47. Snowman says:

    Woodguy v2.0: It reminds me a lot of 14/15 when Eakins was coach.

    Then the team was playing well enough to be 50% in most of the key metrics but couldn’t get a save.

    This year the team is above average in most of the metric but can’t get a save.

    I wonder what the common thread between the two years are………

    Nuge! Nuge is the common thread!!

    Woodguy hates Nuge!

    Nuge-Soft!
    Nuge-Bad in the room!
    Nuge-Low gritensity!
    Nuge-Hates puppies!

    In all seriousness though.. don’t look now but Nuge is 53.2% in the dot this year. Could this be the year he goes from disappointing first overall to veteran two way swiss army knife all situations center that is so coveted by NHL head coaches everywhere.

    He’s looking like he did a couple years ago so far this year. Not a perfect player but he’s quietly becoming a very good all situations veteran.

  48. jake70 says:

    On Gord Downie, last August 21,day of last Hip show, I was at a Snowbirds show in Miramichi, the captain from the cockpit on their final flyby of the show, did a 6 or 7 second shout out to Downie and the Hip over the PA system… was a pretty cool gesture. RIP.

  49. LadiesloveSmid says:

    Pouzar:
    Quenneville said Corey Crawford would start Wednesday’s game with Anton Forsberg likely getting the call for Thursday’s game against the Oilers. Quenneville said it can be tempting to play Crawford all the time when he is playing this well but said he has to keep a long-range view of Crawford’s stamina.

    “We need both guys playing and (Crawford) needs rest,” Quenneville said. “That’s always an easy decision on the back-to-back games.”

    Oilers are getting back-ups again! There’s some good news at least!

  50. prefonmich says:

    My worry is twofold,
    1. As our host has recognized there are too many jobs being auditioned for which puts more pressure on the higher end players. This is on our GM.

    2. McLellan has only added to this pressure with the way he plays the lineup and his verbal post games. Increased pressure, on the whole, doesn’t generally aid performance; it is detrimental and I think this is what we are seeing with players like Klef, McDavid, Larsson, Maroon (in a contract year), etc.
    These guys are not making lazy mistakes, they are making mistakes of trying too hard in response to the pressure put on them by their GM first through lack of quality and depth in a few positions, and next by their coach who plays the top players 20+ minutes every night and says these are the guys that need to step up. The coach adds to this pressure by sitting guys for mistakes (see Benning) and overplaying top players and blaming. This is a coach that, at least in the media, doesn’t appear to be calm this year and have the back of his players. He keeps calling them out instead o saying the boys are trying too hard rather than trying smart. This is a bigger worry to me than any performance of our players because it affects our team’s psyche when things are tough.

    The effect of these two issues is the trading away of underperforming players at pennies on the dollar and underperformance. This worries me way more than a 1-4 start.

  51. Bag of Pucks says:

    Having given TMac some props, I’m now going to throw him some shade.

    Said before the game yesterday that the right call was to go with Talbot again and let him play his way out of this. LB is not going to be the starter for this team, and you don’t make your alpha go stand in the corner when his confidence is wavering. Playing in what he likely perceived as a must win game didn’t seem to help Brossoit much either.

    Starting goalies are like ace pitchers. You wouldn’t hold Clemons or Maddux off the mound at their natural time in the rotation just because they got lit up in their last outing. Nor should you do the same with your starting goalie.

    IMO Talbot has earned the right to get more latitude from his HC than this.

  52. Silver Streak says:

    Hey Guys…did I not see while watching the game last night, a quick blurb on Draisittle, back skating with another guy….who someone said was Sekera !!!!

    Tell me I saw and heard that please !!!

  53. Bag of Pucks says:

    prefonmich:
    My worry is twofold,
    1. As our host has recognized there are too many jobs being auditioned for which puts more pressure on the higher end players. This is on our GM.

    Aside from Sekera being out, where are all these auditions happening? The team is not that materially different from the team that pushed the Ducks to the brink.

    Is the GM supposed to engineer a trade sending out major assets every time there’s an injury to a core roster starter?

    What if Leon was out 20 games? Should we trade next years’ first rounder for his injury replacement.

    The analytics gang wants to have their cake and eat it too on this one imo. They spot the regression and likely realize the team and the results are due to normalize, but in the same breath, they want to blame the GM for not proactively engineering some trades to presumably prevent this?

    Is that how this works, do trades eliminate the worry of regression?

    KBom, Maroon, and Brossoit played like shite last night. That’s the main reason they lost. Not the fact that they didn’t sign Jagr.

  54. pocession charge says:

    JimmyV1965:
    I’m may be way off base here but I think some of the blame falls squarely on the shoulders of TMac. At the Penticton tournament he did an interview with John Shannon saying he was worried the team would not start the season well.Why say this publically even before the pre-season starts? When the team lost a couple games he called out McDavid in the media. (He didn’t mention names but we all know who he was talking about) He enforced some tough love during practice when the team was 1-2. I’m all for line juggling, but he has been absolutely manic this year. I think he overreacted early on. What message does this send to his players? This to me demonstrates his lack of confidence in the team and now they are playing with zero confidence. Guys are gripping their sticks way too tight right now and at least some of that comes from the top.I know this is all speculation, but if the coach showed more confidence in his team early on, they might play with more confidence.

    Yes, I agree with you that the problem is bad goaltending and shitty special teams play. I also agree that the coach has little to do with this.

  55. digger50 says:

    “The GM better do something”

    Already on the team or gifted:

    McDavid
    Nurse
    Nuge
    Drai
    Klefbom

    Brought In:

    – pretty well the rest of the team

    We started from waaaayyyyy back. Dumped a little more skill than I would have liked but a dam good job of getting Edmonton up to respectability

    And we do have some skill coming but the cavalry is still a year away.

    I think even one Stanley and some suffering may be better than 10 McDavid years of competing but never getting over the top. I think it’s time to cash in some beans for more skill. I hope the kind that is young enough to grow with the team and can be resigned. Is that possable?

  56. Mr. D. says:

    I’d like to know how Auvitu/Gryba was chaos. They seemed to win nearly every battle and get the puck out of their end. They had more than 10 shots at/toward the goal. Credit where it’s due?
    If our first pairing doesn’t get it together this will be a year to forget. 23 min toi and can’t play defense..yikes. Benning comING in at this point is senceless.

  57. godot10 says:

    Nuclear leak:
    This squad isn’t right, GM needs to do something to address his roster short comings and coaches need to figure out how to create a system thats gets the Oilers some space in the slots.

    With this coach, the systems don’t change. The systems are fine. The players have to change.

    He even said so coming into the job in Edmonton. He doesn’t care who the players are in the jerseys. And that they will get different players if they have to.

  58. pocession charge says:

    People who are knocking Lucic for Klefbom’s fuck up on the offensive blue line have obviously not played hockey before. That was not a bad pass. It might not have been perfectly on Klefbom’s tape but in the NHL you are expected to handle a pass like that. He booted the ball, plain and simple.

  59. digger50 says:

    Bag of Pucks:
    Having given TMac some props, I’m now going to throw him some shade.

    Said before the game yesterday that the right call was to go with Talbot again and let him play his way out of this. LB is not going to be the starter for this team, and you don’t make your alpha go stand in the corner when his confidence is wavering. Playing in what he likely perceived as a must win game didn’t seem to help Brossoit much either.

    Starting goalies are like ace pitchers. You wouldn’t hold Clemons or Maddux off the mound at their natural time in the rotation just because they got lit up in their last outing. Nor should you do the same with your starting goalie.

    IMO Talbot has earned the right to get more latitude from his HC than this.

    Yes, good point.

    Do you think Tmac was intentionally showcasing what he’s got in a back up goalie? Was a point being made here ?

    I could just be seeing shadows. But Tmac did not trust LB last year, I doubt much has changed.

  60. Gerta Rauss says:

    Silver Streak:
    Hey Guys…did I not see while watching the game last night, a quick blurb on Draisittle, back skating with another guy….who someone said was Sekera !!!!

    Tell me I saw and heard that please !!!

    I think it was Caguila skating with Drai

    *edit-I stand corrected

  61. pocession charge says:

    godot10: With this coach, the systems don’t change.The systems are fine.The players have to change.

    He even said so coming into the job in Edmonton.He doesn’t care who the players are in the jerseys.And that they will get different players if they have to.

    Damn rights. I hate when the Oilers out shoot and out chance the opposition on a nightly basis. Terrible coaching.

  62. godot10 says:

    Silver Streak:
    Hey Guys…did I not see while watching the game last night, a quick blurb on Draisittle, back skating with another guy….who someone said was Sekera !!!!

    Tell me I saw and heard that please !!!

    I have heard that Sekera has been skating with the injured players for awhile. I was not able to determine what “awhile” meant. But it doesn’t necessarily mean anything yet. It depends what drills he is doing in these sessions. i.e. Is he doing sharp turning drills or mostly straighter line skating drills.

    Draisaitl has (according to Matheson) skated Monday and Tuesday with the injured players. Again, we don’t know exactly what that means. How hard was he skated, etc.

  63. Chachi says:

    Silver Streak:
    Hey Guys…did I not see while watching the game last night, a quick blurb on Draisittle, back skating with another guy….who someone said was Sekera !!!!

    Tell me I saw and heard that please !!!

    Jason Gregor‏Verified account @JasonGregor 36m36 minutes ago
    More
    Sekera sighting. He was skating this morning with Draisaitl, Caggiula and Benson. Moving well. But only 5 months since surgery. #Oilers

  64. digger50 says:

    prefonmich:
    My worry is twofold,
    1. As our host has recognized there are too many jobs being auditioned for which puts more pressure on the higher end players. This is on our GM.

    2. McLellan has only added to this pressure with the way he plays the lineup and his verbal post games. Increased pressure, on the whole, doesn’t generally aid performance; it is detrimental and I think this is what we are seeing with players like Klef, McDavid, Larsson, Maroon (in a contract year), etc.
    These guys are not making lazy mistakes, they are making mistakes of trying too hard in response to the pressure put on them by their GM first through lack of quality and depth in a few positions, and next by their coach who plays the top players 20+ minutes every night and says these are the guys that need to step up. The coach adds to this pressure by sitting guys for mistakes (see Benning) and overplaying top players and blaming. This is a coach that, at least in the media, doesn’t appear to be calm this year and have the back of his players. He keeps calling them out instead o saying the boys are trying too hard rather than trying smart. This is a bigger worry to me than any performance of our players because it affects our team’s psyche when things are tough.

    The effect of these two issues is the trading away of underperforming players at pennies on the dollar and underperformance. This worries me way more than a 1-4 start.

    Great post.

    I do give Babcock a lot of credit for how he handled the confidence of his young players over the last couple of years. He always stayed posative and had thier backs.

  65. Pouzar says:

    pocession charge:
    People who are knocking Lucic for Klefbom’s fuck up on the offensive blue line have obviously not played hockey before.That was not a bad pass.It might not have been perfectly on Klefbom’s tape but in the NHL you are expected to handle a pass like that.He booted the ball, plain and simple.

    +1

  66. OriginalPouzar says:

    In all seriousness though.. don’t look now but Nuge is 53.2% in the dot this year. Could this be the year he goes from disappointing first overall to veteran two way swiss army knife all situations center that is so coveted by NHL head coaches everywhere.

    I agree that Nuge is looking strong this year in most facets of the game – with that said, I’m still very disappointed with his play on that goal last night – he was back-checking hard and then, for some unexplained reason, stopped skating just past our blue line and veered to the wrong guy in the middle of the ice, allowing the ultimate goal scorer, and his man, a clear path to the net.

    He’s better than that.

  67. Bag of Pucks says:

    WG, Just a quick followup to our exchange yesterday,

    The summary item from you:

    Hall, Eberle, Erikkson-Ek, Carlo out for Larsson, Strome in.

    First, this is disingenous logic and you know it. Reinhart counts as asset return. You can’t discount the trade return because Vegas acquired the player. The very fact Vegas claimed him corroborates asset value. Second, we all know Hall was dealt with Chia knowing full well he could sign Lucic. It’s what you do with the overall cap room (ie the overall performance of the portfolio), not how you parse individual trades.

    So, proceeding under the faulty assumption that the Oil even draft the prospects you’ve cherry picked above, it looks like this:

    Hall, Eberle, Erikkson-Ek, Carlo for Larsson, Strome, Reinhart, Lucic

    Finally, with all that said, what do you make of Doughty’s comments last year where he basically threw the core pre-Chia/TMac under the bus, saying this team now backchecks and is a physical, tough out at home?

    That’s what’s mystifying to me. The team goes through a largely regression and injury driven losing streak, and all of sudden everyone wants to castigate the GM for the Hall, Eberle, and Reinhart trades again? This despite the fact that we have opposition players saying the changes have worked to the Oilers benefit?

    Honestly, I always thought LT was overstating it saying there was a ‘fracture’ in this fanbase with the Hall trade. Now, I realize he’s spot on. Larsson could win the Norris and Ek or Barzal can turn out to be mere flashes in the pan, and there will always be a portion of this fanbase that will insist this team would’ve won more Cups had Chiarelli not made those trades. Crazy.

  68. Pouzar says:

    OriginalPouzar: I agree that Nuge is looking strong this year in most facets of the game – with that said, I’m still very disappointed with his play on that goal last night – he was back-checking hard and then, for some unexplained reason, stopped skating just past our blue line and veered to the wrong guy in the middle of the ice, allowing the ultimate goal scorer, and his man, a clear path to the net.

    He’s better than that.

    You nailed it. Very strange goal.

  69. digger50 says:

    pocession charge: Damn rights.I hate when the Oilers out shoot and out chance the opposition on a nightly basis.Terrible coaching.

    I think it is a valid point The Godot makes.

    MaClelland came in with attitude. Edmonton is shite and I know what I’m doing. He was very rigid. I think he has adapted somewhat to his present team but remains process driven. This is mostly a good thing for coaching success. Downside is your religious belief in process can blind you to exploring opportunities.

    In regards to individual players I think he could show more flexibility.

  70. Bag of Pucks says:

    digger50: Yes, good point.

    Do you think Tmac was intentionally showcasing what he’s got in a back up goalie? Was a point being made here ?

    I could just be seeing shadows. But Tmac did not trust LB last year, I doubt much has changed.

    No, I think we just learned the length of the hook that TMac has for his starter. It’s 3 losses in a row.

    To be fair, that’s a helluva shorter hook than the one Mike Keenan used! : )

  71. godot10 says:

    pocession charge:
    People who are knocking Lucic for Klefbom’s fuck up on the offensive blue line have obviously not played hockey before.That was not a bad pass.It might not have been perfectly on Klefbom’s tape but in the NHL you are expected to handle a pass like that.He booted the ball, plain and simple.

    Lucic, under pressure, threw the hot potato carelessly and off target to another player who was covered instead of to the open man down the wall. He was not blameless. He passed it inaccurately to the wrong player. True, Klefbom screwed up too, but they share the blunder.

  72. JimmyV1965 says:

    pocession charge,

    pocession charge: Damn rights.I hate when the Oilers out shoot and out chance the opposition on a nightly basis.Terrible coaching.

    I’m not saying we go out and get a new coach or that TMac sucks as a coach, I’m just saying some of the blame falls on his shoulders too. I don’t like the way he has reacted since the team was 1-2. This team is playing with zero confidence and I’m not sure TMac had helped in that regard. And I’m not sure it’s completely fair to cite his career record as proof that he is a good coach. He coached one of the most talented teams in the league for many years.

  73. GriffCity says:

    Nuclear leak,

    Disagree on Yamamoto. He has been one of our best playes over the past 2 games when he has actually been put in a spot to succeed. He has 2 pts over the past 4 Oilers goals combined in the last 2 games and damn near potted a beauty shot for his first goal. He is as dynamic a player the Oilers have right now outside of McD and Drai. Connor need to play with someone with skill and brains and Yamo to me, has been excellent.

    One thing I will agree on is that Maroon has not been good, especially away from the puck where he has taken too may stupid penalties this season already. Sadly, outside of Lucic, who doesn’t have much chemistry with McD who are we going to slot into that role? McD needs one bullish type, big bodied winger and one skilled guy who can read plays and get him the puck. The line is good, but Maroon needs to be better. Yamamoto should also stick around the full season if he continues to show well over the remaining 5 games he’s got. ELC be damned, we need wins just as badly now as we will next season.

  74. Chachi says:

    Pouzar: You nailed it. Very strange goal.

    Well, it all started with 220 lb Jordan Staal pancaking Nuge off the faceoff and giving him another shot as he was lying on the ice before he broke towards the Oilers end with the puck. Nuge also saw that there were 2 d-men back and didn’t anticipate that they would both take the same man leaving Slavin wide open. That being said he does seem to just stop skating and coast in towards the end of the play. That was pretty awful all around.

  75. pocession charge says:

    JimmyV1965:
    pocession charge,

    I’m not saying we go out and get a new coach or that TMac sucks as a coach, I’m just saying some of the blame falls on his shoulders too. I don’t like the way he has reacted since the team was 1-2.This team is playing with zero confidence and I’m not sure TMac had helped in that regard. And I’m not sure it’s completely fair to cite his career record as proof that he is a good coach. He coached one of the most talented teams in the league for many years.

    I know how the team can get some confidence back: the goalies make a big save when required and special teams stop dropping the ball.

  76. pocession charge says:

    godot10: Lucic, under pressure, threw the hot potato carelessly and off target to another player who was covered instead of to the open man down the wall.He was not blameless.He passed it inaccurately to the wrong player.True, Klefbom screwed up too, but they share the blunder.

    None of this is accurate. Take your blinders off please.

  77. digger50 says:

    OriginalPouzar: I agree that Nuge is looking strong this year in most facets of the game – with that said, I’m still very disappointed with his play on that goal last night – he was back-checking hard and then, for some unexplained reason, stopped skating just past our blue line and veered to the wrong guy in the middle of the ice, allowing the ultimate goal scorer, and his man, a clear path to the net.

    He’s better than that.

    I seen it a little differently.

    Nuge could not catch his man. Just plain out not fast enough to catch him there and it was obvious.

    There is no way Larson should have expected that man to be picked up, it was impossible.

    Nuge slows to cover what will become the high trailing man.

    That made it a three on two, both d men committing to the puck carrier, leaving winger wide open with a clear path to the net.

    All were in the picture of course. Preventable goal.

  78. Bruce McCurdy says:

    Jethro Tull,

    My Cult of Hockey colleague David Staples has been doing this sort of analysis for a number of years. Every single game, every scoring chance for and against. It’s an immense undertaking, very labour-intensive to put it mildly. But I for one find plenty of value in the output.

  79. Kinger_Oil.redux says:

    – Great post LT! this is a thrilling time to be an Oil Fan on this blog, IMO. As yeti and a few others have observed: the discomfort between the fancy stats, actual results, what the eye sees, small sample sizes, individual plays, the current forrmation of the roster, coaching, goalering, the importance of single events, our own biases are all being examined and evaluated

    – It’s an interesting tension: actual results, and the interpretation of actual results

    – Who is this team, and who are we as LT posters in terms of our thoughts and anylsis.

    – I’m loving it…

  80. Pouzar says:

    godot10: Lucic, under pressure, threw the hot potato carelessly and off target to another player who was covered instead of to the open man down the wall.He was not blameless.He passed it inaccurately to the wrong player.True, Klefbom screwed up too, but they share the blunder.

    He passed it inaccurately to an “uncovered” defenceman on the PP.
    Freeze frame this puppy at 4:42 https://www.nhl.com/oilers/video/car–edm/t-277437406/c-53611903

    It’s a play Klef makes 99 times out of 100. He literally booted it.

  81. pocession charge says:

    digger50: I think it is a valid point The Godot makes.

    MaClelland came in with attitude. Edmonton is shite and I know what I’m doing. He was very rigid. I think he has adapted somewhat to his present team but remains process driven. This is mostly a good thing for coaching success. Downside is your religious belief in process can blind you to exploring opportunities.

    In regards to individual players I think he could show more flexibility.

    Godot often makes good points but when he establishes a narrative, it’s like engaging in a land war in Asia. Does anybody think that TMc has changed his tactics from this time last year when the team won 47 games and nearly went to the conference final? No. The players are not executing the way the coaching staff expects them to.at this very early point in the season. That said, they are still outshooting and outchancing the opposition and that is the sign of a good coaching staff.

  82. Odd McSmellin says:

    OriginalPouzar:
    I do like the change in the defensive pairings that McLellan went to for a material part of the game.

    Time for some new material.

  83. Pouzar says:

    pocession charge: TMc

    Thank you. 🙂

  84. pocession charge says:

    Pouzar: He passed it inaccurately to an “uncovered” defenceman on the PP.
    Freeze frame this puppy at 4:42https://www.nhl.com/oilers/video/car–edm/t-277437406/c-53611903

    It’s a play Klef makes 99/100 times out of 100. He literally booted it.

    Damn you Pouzar and your “evidence”.

    Klefbom definitely makes that play 99% of the time and he would say the same thing.

  85. Bruce McCurdy says:

    Jethro Tull:
    I would suggest that individual errors are becoming an important stat like in baseball and tennis. Forced and unforced errors leading to HDSC against? Could be something here. Programming this morning, so will give it some thought.

    My Cult of Hockey colleague David Staples has been conducting this sort of analysis for a number of years. Every game, every scoring chance. It’s an immense undertaking, very labour intensive to put it mildly. I for one find the output to contain plenty of value, even as the process remains — and Will remain — imperfect. (same goes for other methods, including auto-generated ones such as that cited in this post that found the Oilers allowed 0 high danger shots against with Oscar Klefbom on the ice last night despite his blunder allowing a 140-foot 2-on-1 in the game’s opening gambit.)

    The idea of tracking forced vs unforced errors is a good one that is not specifically covered by Staples’ analysis.

  86. Chachi says:

    Pouzar: He passed it inaccurately to an “uncovered” defenceman on the PP.
    Freeze frame this puppy at 4:42https://www.nhl.com/oilers/video/car–edm/t-277437406/c-53611903

    It’s a play Klef makes 99/100 times out of 100. He literally booted it.

    Your video evidence is all just lies planted there by Todd Mclellan. He may be a mediocre coach, but he is also a time traveler who can manipulate digital video.

  87. Pouzar says:

    Gawd Goal 5 is hard to watch. I have no idea what Nuge was thinking there.

  88. Chachi says:

    Edmonton Oilers‏Verified account @EdmontonOilers 2m2 minutes ago
    More
    Coach McLellan says both @drakecaggiula & @Drat_29 will make the road trip & are “progressing well”. May be available Saturday in PHI.

  89. Bruce McCurdy says:

    Pouzar: He passed it inaccurately to an “uncovered” defenceman on the PP.
    Freeze frame this puppy at 4:42https://www.nhl.com/oilers/video/car–edm/t-277437406/c-53611903

    It’s a play Klef makes 99/100 times out of 100. He literally booted it.

    Didn’t help that Klef’s stick blade was outside the zone while the pass was being executed. He didn’t exactly give Lucic an easy target there.

  90. Chachi says:

    Pouzar:
    Gawd Goal 5 is hard to watch. I have no idea what Nuge was thinking there.

    I think I know:

    https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=GOt2R99H3Bo

  91. Pouzar says:

    Chachi: Your video evidence is all just lies planted there by Todd Mclellan. He may be a mediocre coach, but he is also a time traveler who can manipulate digital video.

    Maaaaaaaaaan…I knew it!

  92. stush18 says:

    godot10: Lucic, under pressure, threw the hot potato carelessly and off target to another player who was covered instead of to the open man down the wall.He was not blameless.He passed it inaccurately to the wrong player.True, Klefbom screwed up too, but they share the blunder.

    Yup.

    When you’re under pressure like that, you should always head further into the zone. It’s the safe play.

  93. Pouzar says:

    Chachi:
    Edmonton Oilers‏Verified account @EdmontonOilers2m2 minutes ago
    More
    Coach McLellan says both @drakecaggiula & @Drat_29 will make the road trip & are “progressing well”. May be available Saturday in PHI.

    I love you.

  94. stush18 says:

    Bruce McCurdy: Didn’t help that Klef’s stick blade was outside the zone while the pass was being executed. He didn’t exactly give Lucic an easy target there.

    I think klefbom recognizes the pressure and started backing out of the zone.

  95. theycallmeBill says:

    The Oilers are off to a slower start that we all would like to see,
    at this point I’m not sure what the remedy is or will be. Should Chia take an axe to
    the current roster and start trading prospects and picks in an attempt to
    right the ship? I’m torn between saying yes and saying hell no.
    Sure the missed opportunities and points are dear, but is it so far gone to believe all is lost this season?
    Another few weeks, hopefully everything will come around.

    Mr. Gord Downie R.I.P.
    Beautiful voice, beautiful mind, beautiful person.
    A true icon to all of Canada, whose work and life shall forever be remembered.
    Hits close to home for me on a personal level, lost the love of my life in ’05 to cancer.
    My folks are both battling cancer now as well. F$%K cancer.
    Take a precious moment today to remember Mr. Downie, all those who have either fought and won or
    passed, fighting cancer.
    Heroes, one and all.

  96. dustrock says:

    Was surprised at the number of passes last night that weren’t tape to tape. Even from some of the more skilled players on the team.

  97. Chachi says:

    Pouzar: I love you.

    Ditto.

  98. Kinger_Oil.redux says:

    Bruce McCurdy:

    The idea of tracking forced vs unforced errors is a good one that is not specifically covered by Staples’ analysis.

    – I’ve talked about this before: In backgammon, the break-through in analysis was the ability to calculate for each move “equity won or loss”.

    – Its the same issue in hockey. Some errors cause greater loss in equity (or positive). We are still at the rudimentary stage of this in Hockey. Ricki’s box might help advance it. …

    – To assign a 0 or 1 to each action, as your colleague does, it’s certainly better than no data, but the weight of each assignment on actual results isn’t equal distribution.

    – LT alludes a little to this when he talks about single events. All corsi is not equal, all saves are not equal, in terms of skill/luck/impact. It’s not enough to say that “it evens out”

  99. digger50 says:

    pocession charge: Godot often makes good points but when he establishes a narrative, it’s like engaging in a land war in Asia.Does anybody think that TMc has changed his tactics from this time last year when the team won 47 games and nearly went to the conference final?No.The players are not executing the way the coaching staff expects them to.at this very early point in the season.That said, they are still outshooting and outchancing the opposition and that is the sign of a good coaching staff.

    That is one sign of good coaching. Another sign is flexibility when things are not working, and the ability to adapt.

    I think Todd is a fine coach.

    If I had any advice it would be to stop pretending to be so mad at your team all the time. Look for opportunities to give them praise, confidence etc. Keep more to yourself and in your locker room.

  100. stush18 says:

    Lt I’m going to have to 100% disagree with you.

    The heart of the team deserves hammering on, not the fringe players or supporting cast.

    The heart of this team is expected to carry this team through the tough times. That’s why they are the men making the big bucks.

    Klefbom and Larsson have not been good.
    Mcdavid has had 3 assists in 4 games, and has been poor defensively.
    Maroon hasn’t pissed a drop of offense.

    Why look to the fringe, when slepy, Malone, and Pak were some of our best players last night? They drew all the penalties, which usually means you’re moving your feet.

    I’m not down on this team, but we need our top players to raise up the fringe players, not the other way around.

  101. OriginalPouzar says:

    Reid Wilkins‏Verified account @ReidWilkins 10m10 minutes ago
    More
    Both Draisaitl and Caggiula will go on the road trip. Not likely to play tomorrow, but could return in other games.

    Coach McLellan says both @drakecaggiula & @Drat_29 will make the road trip & are “progressing well”. May be available Saturday in PHI.

    Whoa – these were posted a while ago – I”m late to the game – damn clients.

  102. stush18 says:

    digger50,

    I think what he portrays to the media and what we don’t see behind the scenes is completely different.

    And honestly, how can’t you get frustrated? He spent a year and a half teaching these guys how to play structured team defense, and they’ve completely forgot the first four games.

    Gotta be frustrating when you know your players are better than this.

  103. Chachi says:

    OriginalPouzar: Whoa – these were posted a while ago – I”m late to the game – damn clients.

    Value bill the hell out of them.

  104. gregsaint says:

    PouzarI have no idea what Nuge was thinking there.,

    “damn, my leg just isn’t working since that knee-on-knee I took a few minutes ago, not gonna catch this guy, damn”

  105. russ99 says:

    godot10: With this coach, the systems don’t change.The systems are fine.The players have to change.

    He even said so coming into the job in Edmonton.He doesn’t care who the players are in the jerseys.And that they will get different players if they have to.

    That’s what was needed at the time when he was hired.

    I wasn’t happy how he answered the question about players he can rely on yesterday, but I get it. We’re in a slump and key players are at least partially responsible. Using the media is one way to send a message.

    McDavid and Draisaitl get a lot more leeway with McLellan as far as adherence to the systems. If our borderline top 6 and all of the bottom six aren’t winning puck battles and are chasing the puck then that message is still valid for those players.

    But I hope it’s not all fire and brimstone in the room, players tune that stuff out if it’s constant. Mike Keenan only lasted 164 games in Calgary with that approach, and McLellan’s at that exact number of games with the Oilers now.

    Going to the game Thursday, wearing my white McDavid jersey, hope to see a lot better start.

  106. pocession charge says:

    stush18: I think klefbom recognizes the pressure and started backing out of the zone.

    What pressure? Did you watch the link that Pouzar posted? It’s black and white — there was no pressure at all. It was a very routine play.

  107. Bag of Pucks says:

    I know I’m far from unique in this but Gord Downie wrote my favorite single lyric of all time.

    “Bring on a brand new renaissance, cos I think I’m ready!”

    And if the band name he coined, ‘The Tragically Hip’ isn’t the single best band name of all time, it’s in the Top 3.

    RIP Gord. It was a good life and you never weakened. You just ran out of racetrack.

  108. Woodguy v2.0 says:

    russ99:
    Sorry guys, I don’t buy this “the goalie didn’t make a save” nonsense.

    This is all tied in to this grand unified Corsi puck mover theory where defense doesn’t exist, all defensemen need to be puck movers, the exit pass is everything and the goalie is supposed to bail everything bad out.

    There’s whiffing on a shot and there’s giving the opposition a clear view with time and space and no pressure from a opposing skater. And once is bad enough, 3 times is a different story.

    My other takeaway is that McDavid really needs to stop passing the puck back when he gets the zone, it’s limiting his chances.

    The Oilers all situations SV% in the last 4 games is .842

    The NHL average for *shootout* SV% is .762

    But goaltending isn’t a problem, its a narrative by the corsiati.

    Ok then.

  109. Woodguy v2.0 says:

    Chachi: PP goals last year:

    Mark Letestu11
    Elias Lindholm2
    Teuvo Teravainen 5

    Clearly The Testu is 1st tier PP talent and the poster did say they lacked 2nd tier talent.

  110. Melvis says:

    Faulks knee on knee had a bit to do with Nuge’s skating in the latter part of the game. Staal playing the role of drapery chintz time and again didn’t help matters either.

  111. pocession charge says:

    OriginalPouzar:
    Reid Wilkins‏Verified account @ReidWilkins10m10 minutes ago
    More
    Both Draisaitl and Caggiula will go on the road trip. Not likely to play tomorrow, but could return in other games.

    Coach McLellan says both @drakecaggiula & @Drat_29 will make the road trip & are “progressing well”. May be available Saturday in PHI.

    Whoa – these were posted a while ago – I”m late to the game – damn clients.

    You mean that you don’t interrupt clients mid-sentence to Oiler blog? Quite frankly, I’m disappointed.

  112. godot10 says:

    Pouzar: He passed it inaccurately to an “uncovered” defenceman on the PP.
    Freeze frame this puppy at 4:42https://www.nhl.com/oilers/video/car–edm/t-277437406/c-53611903

    It’s a play Klef makes 99 times out of 100. He literally booted it.

    Stop it at 4:59. McDavid is wide open under no imminent pressure along the boards. That is where Lucic’s pass should have went. Klefbom has a defender anticipating the Lucic pass racing towards him.

  113. Cassandra says:

    This thread is excellent evidence on the impossibility of assigning individual errors to scoring chances. There is no counterfactual, no baseline against which to measure those errors, and no way to measure the unseen factors that put the player in the position to make the error in the first place.

    It is impossible to measure individual contributions to a hockey play. The best you can do is measure how the team does while that player is on the ice on a macro level, and then try and isolate individual contributions from within that context.

    Moreover, this isn’t a failure that can be solved by scientific progress, it is inherent in the game.

  114. Snowman says:

    Pouzar:
    Gawd Goal 5 is hard to watch. I have no idea what Nuge was thinking there.

    I think that goal is on Larsson. He goes to Nurse’s man inexplicably. Its a brutal read on his part.

    Go to the Oilers web site. Watch the game summary. Pause it at 6:55 and tell me who’s man scored. Then pause it at 6:56 and seriously tell me Larsson isn’t at fault for that one.

    Larrson made a bad read. Nuge was outpaced up ice no doubt. Larsson decides to take the Hurricane player who was already covered by Nurse and being pressured by Nuge.

    If you want to get mad at Nuge for being slower than their guy… sure.. I guess you can.

    But Larsson was in front of him the whole way and took the wrong player.

  115. Chachi says:

    godot10: Stop it at 4:59.McDavid is wide open under no imminent pressure along the boards.That is where Lucic’s pass should have went.Klefbom has a defender anticipating the Lucic pass racing towards him.

    If Lucic should have passed it to McDavid why would the penalty killer have anticipated him passing it to a wide open Klefbom? Wouldn’t the penalty killer have anticipated a pass to McDavid and acted accordingly if it was so obvious to everyone that the pass should have gone to McDavid?

  116. Woodguy v2.0 says:

    Bag of Pucks,

    If Chia traded 16 and 32 for a player worth protecting, they would have protected him.

    And stop throwing FA signings on top like they matter.

    The amount of hoops you and other people jump through to justify obviously asset draining moves is amazing.

    Its simple.

    Hall got traded for Larsson
    Eriksson-Ek and Carlo (as per Bob) got traded for Reinhart, who is not longer on the roster
    Eberle got traded for Strome.

    Out: Hall, Eberle, Eriksson-Ek, Carlo
    In: Reinhart, Larsson, Strome

    No longer on roster: Reinhart
    Return for Reinhart 0

    Net:
    Out – Hall, Eberle, Erkisson-Ek, Carlo
    In – Larsson, Strome.

    I will never move off of this position because its the truth and no amount of crediting what McDavid does for this team to other players will every sway me from this position.

    No amount of talk about “culture” will ever sway me either.

    The same people who played the “culture” card played it again today.

    Spector calling out the Oiler’s culture.

    The same thing they did when Hall was here.

    Its the same problem. – not enough talent and can’t get a save.

    Never was culture, isn’t culture today,

    Its talent and stopping pucks.

    Teams that win have good culture despite the personalities (see Potvin, Dennis)

    Teams that lose have bad cultures (see every shitty team with great guys on it)

  117. Chachi says:

    Woodguy v2.0: Clearly The Testu is 1st tier PP talent and the poster did say they lacked 2nd tier talent.

    Fair enough, they should sit the 1st tier talent and get more second tier talent. Wait, I think the poster is Chiarelli!!!

  118. pocession charge says:

    godot10: Stop it at 4:59.McDavid is wide open under no imminent pressure along the boards.That is where Lucic’s pass should have went.Klefbom has a defender anticipating the Lucic pass racing towards him.

    At 4:59 the goal has already been scored. The play in question happens at 4:42.

    Land war….in Asia.

  119. linkfromhyrule says:

    I am coming around to WG’s idea that Peter materially reduced our team SH% outside the top line. Cam Ward likely has a puck sized dent in his crest this morning, because none of our players seem to be able to target anywhere else. We don’t have enough dangerous shooters.

    IMO last night’s game was all about breakdowns and brain farts.

    Maroon x 2, Kassian, and Lucic all took dumb penalties. Just boneheaded. Those penalties plus the SHG were momentum killers. If Maroon and Kassian don’t take those penalties, it’s likely only 1-0 after the 1st period.

    That being said, the Oil seemed to carry the play for the majority of that game to my eye. The problem was, when they had breakdowns, they were of the 10 bell kind. Brossoit wasn’t bailing them out either. They seemed to dominate zone time, but Carolina had all the dangerous chances.

    It is a good sign that they dominated possession against Carolina, who is one of the better possession teams in the league. Far too many point shots though. They’re just throwing it at the net hoping something happens. MAKE A PLAY!!

    Klef went riverboat gambler last night and lost his shirt. Our top line and our top pairing have not looked like themselves since the first game. I’m confident they’ll turn it around, but it better happen soon…

  120. Chachi says:

    Woodguy v2.0: The Oilers all situations SV% in the last 4 games is .842

    The NHL average for *shootout* SV% is .762

    But goaltending isn’t a problem, its a narrative by the corsiati.

    Ok then.

    What I take from this is that the Oilers should just allow uncontested breakaway after uncontested breakaway if they want better goaltending! So crazy it might work!

  121. Cassandra says:

    Bag of Pucks:
    I know I’m far from unique in this but Gord Downie wrote my favorite single lyric of all time.

    “Bring on a brand new renaissance, cos I think I’m ready!”

    And if the band name he coined, ‘The Tragically Hip’ isn’t the single best band name of all time, it’s in the Top 3.

    RIP Gord. It was a good life and you never weakened. You just ran out of racetrack.

    My cousin is in the band. I remember when I first heard the name of this band he had joined. I was at my grandmother’s cottage, which was right next to my Aunt’s cottage, and my Aunt was telling us how my cousin had joined a band with some friends from High School called “The Tragically Hip.” I was in grade 7 or 8 at the time, and into Punk music. I thought it sounded like some kind of poseur name, and kind of hated it. By high school, I had changed my tune.

    A lot of emotions today, we aren’t as young as they used to be, and don’t like being reminded of it. A strange combination of nostalgia, sadness, and loss.

  122. pocession charge says:

    Woodguy v2.0:
    Bag of Pucks,

    Its the same problem. – not enough talent and can’t get a save.

    Never was culture, isn’t culture today,

    Its talent and stopping pucks.

    Can we put this on repeat?

  123. Bag of Pucks says:

    Woodguy v2.0,

    The natural and succinct retort is that you’re jumping through your own hoops to ignore cap space and reallocation of same as an asset. Money realized from the Hall and Eberle trades went to acquire Lucic and retain McDavid and Draisaitl longterm whether you wish to acknowledge it or not.

    And who plays 1D for the club currently in this alternate reality? Demers?

    Cos, I would daresay the team doesn’t make the playoffs last season without Larsson. Is that a sacrifice you’re willing to make to retain Hall? Does this club even get McDavid’s signature on a longterm deal if that’s the case?

    So, congrats, you’ve still got Hall, no 1D and Connor on a bridge deal in this dream GM scenario.

  124. godot10 says:

    pocession charge: What pressure?Did you watch the link that Pouzar posted?It’s black and white — there was no pressure at all.It was a very routine play.

    Lucic was been pressured. The other forward was beginning to attack Klefbom from distance antiicipating the Lucic pass. Klefbom was beginning to retreat in anticipation that Lucic’s pass would be blocked.

    Connor McDavid was alone along the wall, uncovered and with no imminent pressure on him. Lucic just had to push a simple pass up the wall.

  125. SayItAin'tSo, Gretz, SayItAin'tSo! says:

    godot10,

    No it should have went to Klef and then over to testube on the right side and you have a 3 v 2 down low because those two PKers chased up high. When you look at the overhead cam at 5:01 you can see how that would have worked.

  126. OriginalPouzar says:

    Dylan Wells has been selected to the OHL roster for the Canada/Russia series.

    I guess Maksimov didn’t get selected (he’s Canadian I believe).

    Yesterday it was announced the Benson and Skinner were selected to the WHL roster.

    I wonder if Samorukov has a chance for Russia? Probably not.

  127. Cassandra says:

    Woodguy v2.0,

    Great post. I think all of this is obvious and beyond dispute. And this is why the fracture is so deep. The two sides do not share a single reference point around which they could have a discussion.

  128. Chachi says:

    Woodguy v2.0:
    Bag of Pucks,

    If Chia traded 16 and 32 for a player worth protecting, they would have protected him.

    And stop throwing FA signings on top like they matter.

    The amount of hoops you and other people jump through to justify obviously asset draining moves is amazing.

    Its simple.

    Hall got traded for Larsson
    Eriksson-Ek and Carlo (as per Bob) got traded for Reinhart, who is not longer on the roster
    Eberle got traded for Strome.

    Out:Hall, Eberle, Eriksson-Ek, Carlo
    In: Reinhart, Larsson, Strome

    No longer on roster: Reinhart
    Return for Reinhart 0

    Net:
    Out – Hall, Eberle, Erkisson-Ek, Carlo
    In – Larsson, Strome.

    I will never move off of this position because its the truth and now amount of crediting what McDavid does for this team to other players will every sway me from this position.

    No amount of talk about“culture” will ever sway me either.

    The same people who played the “culture” card played it again today.

    Spector calling out the Oiler’s culture.

    The same thing they did when Hall was here.

    Its the same problem. – not enough talent and can’t get a save.

    Never was culture, isn’t culture today,

    Its talent and stopping pucks.

    I agree with a lot of this, but cap space isn’t an asset and the free agents you sign with it doesn’t matter now? Really?

  129. pocession charge says:

    RIP Gord Downie. He was a special person who touched the lives of millions of Canadians. I loved the Hip growing up and this is a tough loss. Cherish every day that you have on this side of the dirt.

  130. pocession charge says:

    godot10: Lucic was been pressured.The other forward was beginning to attack Klefbom from distance antiicipating the Lucic pass.Klefbom was beginning to retreat in anticipation that Lucic’s pass would be blocked.

    Connor McDavid was alone along the wall, uncovered and with no imminent pressure on him.Lucic just had to push a simple pass up the wall.

    Land war…..in Asia.

  131. godot10 says:

    Chachi: If Lucic should have passed it to McDavid why would the penalty killer have anticipated him passing it to a wide open Klefbom? Wouldn’t the penalty killer have anticipated a pass to McDavid and acted accordingly if it was so obvious to everyone that the pass should have gone to McDavid?

    The penalty killer would have broken the defensive structure of the PK by pressuring McDavid instead of Klefbom.

    McDavid was open but he was in a less dangerous position to the defense at that moment than Klefbom.

    But Lucic was under pressure, he should have passed it to the wide open guy.

    Like I said in my first post, both Lucic and Klefbom share the blunder. Absolving Lucic of any blame is just wrong.

  132. BustedSoulO says:

    So hard to really care about the woes of this team, in the minutia of these early days, on this day that our world; my world, has lost Mr. Downie.

    Such an impact on my life. To quote an earlier poster: “…changed my paradigm…”

    Been catching up on interviews and concert clips all morning, revisiting my past, through his. The eyes won’t stop watering… must be dusty in here this morning.

    Gordie, being a huge Bruins fan, musta LUVed Mr. Lucic back in the day.

    But I bet he’s sittin’ wherever he’s sittin’ right now, laughing at the poor dumb bastard that so horribly tied his cart to this now tired, old, slow, uncoordinated, ‘beating-the-puck-square’, lost in every zone, cartoon caricature of ineptness.

    Well… go ahead and laugh it up, Gord. Laugh it up.

  133. Cassandra says:

    Bag of Pucks:
    Woodguy v2.0,

    The natural and succinct retort is that you’re jumping through your own hoops to ignore cap space and reallocation of same as an asset.

    it is interesting that you think signing Lucic helps your argument. He has been terrible since day one. He doesn’t skate well, he doesn’t pass well, he doesn’t take a pass well, and he doesn’t defend well.

    The worst thing about last night’s game is he got two lucky points, an assist where he contributed nothing to the play, and a bad goal by the goalie, thus insulating him from criticism for a little while.

    This means that the criticism is going to go places it isn’t merited.

  134. Snowman says:

    Chachi: I agree with a lot of this, but cap space isn’t an asset and the free agents you sign with it doesn’t matter now? Really?

    If you argue cap space is an asset you have to acknowledge that Chia blew that on Lucic and Russell.

    Russell is what he is.. a middling #4/5. He’s not worth 4M.

    Lucic has not played like a 6M since his first game here.

    So sure… he got cap space and spent it foolishly.

  135. BustedSoulO says:

    …and I’d like to cast my vote for ‘The Hip’ for the next RE series, ‘cuz…. well just because, damn it.

  136. Chachi says:

    godot10: But Lucic was under pressure, he should have passed it to the wide open guy.

    He did pass it to the wide open guy. You can fault him for not making a completely perfect pass while under pressure, I suppose.

  137. OriginalPouzar says:

    Nothing like a losing streak and bad vibes to get the community to break down the ins and outs of every mistake complete with game film analysis.

    I wonder if we can contact the team for some alternative angles to some of these plays?

  138. SayItAin'tSo, Gretz, SayItAin'tSo! says:

    linkfromhyrule,

    I agree with a lot of this post but not this part

    “That being said, the Oil seemed to carry the play for the majority of that game to my eye. The problem was, when they had breakdowns, they were of the 10 bell kind. Brossoit wasn’t bailing them out either. They seemed to dominate zone time, but Carolina had all the dangerous chances.
    It is a good sign that they dominated possession against Carolina, who is one of the better possession teams in the league. Far too many point shots though. They’re just throwing it at the net hoping something happens. MAKE A PLAY!!”

    Here is the links from NaturalStatTrick, both raw numbers and the shot heat map.

    https://www.naturalstattrick.com/games.php?season=20172018&stype=2&sit=all&team=EDM&team2=All&rate=n

    https://www.naturalstattrick.com/game.php?season=20172018&game=20089

    It’s possible to have good numbers and get noticed for negative things—single moments and events can have super importance while being exactly single moments and events.

    I agree 100% that the Oilers gave up 10 bell chances and 4 of them ended up in their own net. But Ward also made two breakaway stops, 4 two on one stops and the Oilers hit 4 posts on other chances throughout the game.

    The numbers above show that the Oil dominated HDSCs, they show that they shot from everywhere, not just low percentage areas.

    Cam Ward stops Maroon on that breakaway and Klef/Looch cough up a breakaway that Staal scores on. Two incredibly similar HDSCs, one was converted and it totally flipped the momentum of that 3rd period.

  139. Chachi says:

    Snowman: If you argue cap space is an asset you have to acknowledge that Chia blew that on Lucic and Russell.

    Russell is what he is.. a middling #4/5. He’s not worth 4M.

    Lucic has not played like a 6M since his first game here.

    So sure… he got cap space and spent it foolishly.

    So does the cap space count as an asset or not? Whether he spent it wisely is a different question and I agree that he didn’t.

  140. Bag of Pucks says:

    Cassandra: it is interesting that you think signing Lucic helps your argument.He has been terrible since day one.He doesn’t skate well, he doesn’t pass well, he doesn’t take a pass well,and he doesn’t defend well.

    The worst thing about last night’s game is he got two lucky points, an assist where he contributed nothing to the play, and a bad goal by the goalie, thus insulating him from criticism for a little while.

    This means that the criticism is going to go places it isn’t merited.

    A depreciating asset is still an asset. You can’t just ignore it on the ledger entirely.

  141. Pouzar says:

    Snowman: I think that goal is on Larsson. He goes to Nurse’s man inexplicably. Its a brutal read on his part.

    Go to the Oilers web site. Watch the game summary. Pause it at 6:55 and tell me who’s man scored. Then pause it at 6:56 and seriously tell me Larsson isn’t at fault for that one.

    Larrson made a bad read. Nuge was outpaced up ice no doubt. Larsson decides to take the Hurricane player who was already covered by Nurse and being pressured by Nuge.

    If you want to get mad at Nuge for being slower than their guy… sure.. I guess you can.

    But Larsson was in front of him the whole way and took the wrong player.

    It’s not a bad read at all by Larsson imo. It’s a 2 forward on 2 D situation and it’s covered.
    Nuge has to take the trailing defencemen or at least try. Nuge inexplicably stops skating just before he hits the blueline then he veers off towards the middle of the ice to cover the puck carrier. What ever ill effects he was feeling at the time doesn’t explain why he floats to the middle of the ice and let’s the opposing trailing d-man go unabated to the goalie.

    Starts at 3:27

    https://www.nhl.com/oilers/video/oilers-edged-by-canes-5-3/t-277443712/c-53611803

  142. Jethro Tull says:

    pocession charge: Land war…..in Asia.

    Inconceivable!

  143. godot10 says:

    Arguably, part of what a good coach does is to try to keep the pressure/stress levels on his difference makers at levels that maximize performance. Too much pressure or stress leads to diminished performance.

    McLellan tends not to do this. He overplays his best players. He overloads is top lines and his top pairings. When a team is shorthanded (missing Sekera) and extremely shorthanded (missing Sekera and Draisailt), the overwork and excess pressure he puts on his difference makers leads to diminished performance.

    Klefbom and Larsson in particular. Klefbom is trying to do to much. McLellan could have reduced the pressure and the minutes on these two by splitting them up….Nurse with Larsson and Klefbom with Benning.

    Neither would then to trying to do too much or playing to much, and would be focused more on playing the system and being a good mentor for their younger partner.

    Ditto the panic decision at the end of training camp to re-unite McDavid and Draisaitl…instead of having three lines, each anchored by a solid centre, McLellan went to stack his top two lines and overplay them.

    It leads to the wrong kind of stress, and fatigue from overplay, instead of “distracting” them into better team play by playing them on separate lines.

  144. linkfromhyrule says:

    SayItAin’tSo, Gretz, SayItAin’tSo!: Here is the links from NaturalStatTrick, both raw numbers and the shot heat map.

    Well shit, it looks like you’re right. Are you telling me my eyes lied to me? 🙂

  145. Melvis says:

    Cassandra: A strange combination of nostalgia, sadness, and loss.

    Fwiw…I like the post Cassandra. And I ” believe” this one;-)

    —————————————————————————–

    I did a few gigs with Johnnie Stevenson around LA back in the day. He wrote Rock’n Roll Heaven for the Righteous Brothers. Now he’s six feet under, along with a lot of other old friends who died at a comparatively young age.

    That’s a hell of a band – and unfortunately, getting bigger by the year.

  146. Pouzar says:

    OriginalPouzar: Nothing like a losing streak and bad vibes to get the community to break down the ins and outs of every mistake complete with game film analysis.

    Agreed. Let’s throw out unsubstantiated narratives instead.

  147. jtblack says:

    Chachi,

    Woodguy. I do agree with your assessment. ”
    Hall got traded for Larsson
    Eriksson-Ek and Carlo (as per Bob) got traded for Reinhart, who is not longer on the roster
    Eberle got traded for Strome.

    BUT. You are only looking at his worst dealls. The glaring horrendous trade is the Reinhart deal. You can place the Reinhart deal besdie any trade and it will make it look Lopsided.

    Out – Gernat, Erkisson-Ek, Carlo
    In – Maroon

    Out – Scrivens, Erkisson-Ek, Carlo
    In – Kassian

    The Reinhart deal was terrible the day it was made, especially Given how deep the 2015 Draft was. 2015 Draft was kind to Edm ans it shouldhave been Epic had PC not panicked.

  148. pocession charge says:

    Snowman:
    Pouzar,

    https://twitter.com/JoshuaOviatt/status/920704952674029568

    To me, it looks like the defencemen (Klef and Larsson) back up at the blue line and give up too much gap on the zone entry.

  149. TheVengeFulOne says:

    While I don’t think this team is this bad, I don’t think they are good enough to fall behind early, and still make the playoffs. The rest of the month is tough sledding, and it’s pretty reasonable that they come up with less than 6 pts.

  150. stush18 says:

    Bag of Pucks: A depreciating asset is still an asset. You can’t just ignore it on the ledger entirely.

    And points still matter. He put himself into a position to score that goal, get that assist.

    Can we make something saying Cassandra can only come here when we’re winning?

  151. Pouzar says:

    pocession charge: To me, it looks like the defencemen (Klef and Larsson) back up at the blue line and give up too much gap on the zone entry.

    No access to twitter.

    But if it’s goal 5 then it’s Larsson/Nurse is it not?

    Anyway, trailer is the Center’s responsibility. If Nuge was hurt or gassed he should have taken a hooking penalty. I fail to see how Larsson is to blame here, he is engaged with the puck carrier and now he supposed to pick up the defenseman too?

  152. stush18 says:

    jtblack:
    Chachi,

    Woodguy. I do agree with your assessment. ”
    Hall got traded for Larsson
    Eriksson-Ek and Carlo (as per Bob) got traded for Reinhart, who is not longer on the roster
    Eberle got traded for Strome.

    BUT.You are only looking at his worst dealls.The glaring horrendous trade is the Reinhart deal. You can place the Reinhart deal besdie any trade and it will make it look Lopsided.

    Out – Gernat,Erkisson-Ek, Carlo
    In – Maroon

    Out – Scrivens, Erkisson-Ek, Carlo
    In – Kassian

    The Reinhart deal was terrible the day it was made, especially Given how deep the 2015 Draft was.2015 Draft was kind to Edm ans it shouldhave been Epic had PC not panicked.

    The negative attitude around here is making it easy for posters to see the holes in the roster.

    Talbot > 57th, 79th, 184th
    Kassian > scrivens
    Maroon (salary retained) > gernat

    Clearly bleeding assets.

    And woodguys position is that chiarelli loses on big deals, and that he wins little ones. But ignoring the wins at massive positional deficits like defense and goaltending from when he started is making things seem worse than they are.

  153. gregsaint says:

    Pouzar,

    The D-man had him beat to the goalie at the blueline…RNH was not going to catch him, best he could have hoped for was to slash/hook him from behind. On top of that, he probably thought “It’s a 2 on 2, Larsson’s got him, I’ll pick up the trailer”

  154. Kinger_Oil.redux says:

    jtblack,

    – In hindsight the Griff trade was terrible: but it was two magic beans, for a more mature one that didn’t develop further.

    – Since Hall has been traded, he’s the 17th in points for LW: a very good winger

    – I’d put Larsson around the top-15 of RHD: and much more impactful to team, based on position than Hall (whose production was replaced and then some)

    – I doubt a Larsson for Hall trade gets done today, even considering the cap space

    *sorry LT for bringing it up: he started it!!!

  155. OriginalPouzar says:

    I mentioned in a thread a few says ago about the possibility that maybe fact that the team is winning the percentage of HDSC battle isn’t really reflective of what’s going on on the ice.

    The possibility that maybe the HDSC this team has been giving up are “elite” high danger scoring chances.

    The coach acknowledged this exact fact a few times throughout his media avail today – we aren’t giving up alot of HDSC but those that we are giving up are “5-ball chances” due to mistakes.

  156. JimmyV1965 says:

    Woodguy v2.0:
    Bag of Pucks,

    If Chia traded 16 and 32 for a player worth protecting, they would have protected him.

    And stop throwing FA signings on top like they matter.

    The amount of hoops you and other people jump through to justify obviously asset draining moves is amazing.

    Its simple.

    Hall got traded for Larsson
    Eriksson-Ek and Carlo (as per Bob) got traded for Reinhart, who is not longer on the roster
    Eberle got traded for Strome.

    Out:Hall, Eberle, Eriksson-Ek, Carlo
    In: Reinhart, Larsson, Strome

    No longer on roster: Reinhart
    Return for Reinhart 0

    Net:
    Out – Hall, Eberle, Erkisson-Ek, Carlo
    In – Larsson, Strome.

    I will never move off of this position because its the truth and no amount of crediting what McDavid does for this team to other players will every sway me from this position.

    No amount of talk about“culture” will ever sway me either.

    The same people who played the “culture” card played it again today.

    Spector calling out the Oiler’s culture.

    The same thing they did when Hall was here.

    Its the same problem. – not enough talent and can’t get a save.

    Never was culture, isn’t culture today,

    Its talent and stopping pucks.

    Teams that win have good culture despite the personalities (see Potvin, Dennis)

    Teams that lose have bad cultures (see every shitty team with great guys on it)

    Ouch!!! The truth is painful.

  157. gregsaint says:

    Watched goal 5 again…its really just RNH not being able to keep up with the D-Man who scores, he loses the race in the neutral zone…with the D-man moving up ice very fast, while the 2 forwards slow up, it switches the 2on2 to the other side, and it gets everyone messed up on who should be covering who.

    Really tough play for the D to figure out. Larsson could have shifted to playing his side as a 2 on one? Maybe?
    Anyway, pretty sure the goal doesn’t happen if RNH was able to go full speed on the play.

  158. Lowetide says:

    Woodguy v2.0:
    Bag of Pucks,

    I will never move off of this position because its the truth and no amount of crediting what McDavid does for this team to other players will every sway me from this position.

    Absolutely true, but we should also mention the acquisition of Cam Talbot, Patrick Maroon, Zack Kassian and Matt Benning. Chiarelli’s trades of Hall and the two picks (15, 33) are a big factor in the current scenario but it’s important to acknowledge the entire record.

  159. Kinger_Oil.redux says:

    Woodguy v2.0,

    – this is just trolling IMO. You have selected two trades, ignored their cap savings, and made a conclusion on Chia’s trading track record as a whole since he’s arrived on a small sample size.

  160. OriginalPouzar says:

    Woodguy v2.0:
    Bag of Pucks,

    If Chia traded 16 and 32 for a player worth protecting, they would have protected him.

    And stop throwing FA signings on top like they matter.

    The amount of hoops you and other people jump through to justify obviously asset draining moves is amazing.

    Its simple.

    Hall got traded for Larsson
    Eriksson-Ek and Carlo (as per Bob) got traded for Reinhart, who is not longer on the roster
    Eberle got traded for Strome.

    Out:Hall, Eberle, Eriksson-Ek, Carlo
    In: Reinhart, Larsson, Strome

    No longer on roster: Reinhart
    Return for Reinhart 0

    Net:
    Out – Hall, Eberle, Erkisson-Ek, Carlo
    In – Larsson, Strome.

    I will never move off of this position because its the truth and no amount of crediting what McDavid does for this team to other players will every sway me from this position.

    No amount of talk about“culture” will ever sway me either.

    The same people who played the “culture” card played it again today.

    Spector calling out the Oiler’s culture.

    The same thing they did when Hall was here.

    Its the same problem. – not enough talent and can’t get a save.

    Never was culture, isn’t culture today,

    Its talent and stopping pucks.

    Teams that win have good culture despite the personalities (see Potvin, Dennis)

    Teams that lose have bad cultures (see every shitty team with great guys on it)

    I will not discount your premise in entirely because it is based in fact (generally) but its only part of the story I believe.

    Firstly, just because Staufer says those are the two players we were going to draft doesn’t make it so – I like Bob and put stock in to his info but he’s also the guy that was predicting Nuge on the wing this season.

    A few pieces of the puzzle are missing though, I think:

    – Hall plus Eberle = $12M and Strome plus Larsson = $6.5M – that cap space was/is an asset and, no matter how we believe it was spent (Lucic, Russell, Drai, whoever) it was part of the deals

    – If you are going to include non-roster players in your analysis as assets out then why can’t we include trades where non-roster draft picks were exchanged for the acquisitions of Talbot, Kassian and Maroon?

  161. JimmyV1965 says:

    Cassandra:
    Woodguy v2.0,

    Great post.I think all of this is obvious and beyond dispute.And this is why the fracture is so deep.The two sides do not share a single reference point around which they could have a discussion.

    I don’t think this is true at all. Chia has completely remade this team from a tire fire into a legit good team. He had a vision of what he wanted this team to look like and made it happen. We are better today because of it. On the other hand, his negotiating skills are awful. He gets his lunch eaten in big trades and he should be forbidden from negotiating contracts.

  162. Cassandra says:

    Kinger_Oil.redux:
    Woodguy v2.0,

    – this is just trolling IMO.You have selected two trades, ignored their cap savings, and made a conclusion on Chia’s trading track record as a whole since he’s arrived on a small sample size.

    Who is trolling who? You routinely call Larsson a #1 defensemen. Which is absurd.

  163. T0ML says:

    So i know we have some coaches here … Question regarding Levels in USA hockey in case anyone knows.

    Im currently a Level 2 coach, was registered for Level 3 class last sunday …. I got the dates mixed up .. going from 2 to 3, do I *need* to get level 3 done this year? Or is it possibly to wait until next year to take it? Im not currently coaching, have it more because i wanted to. Just dont want to lose the progress ive got. Without driving ~2 hours on a saturday to take one of the last two in my state …

    Thanks,
    -Spencer

  164. pocession charge says:

    Pouzar: No access to twitter.

    But if it’s goal 5 then it’s Larsson/Nurse is it not?

    Anyway, trailer is the Center’s responsibility. If Nuge was hurt or gassed he should have taken a hooking penalty. I fail to see how Larsson is to blame here, he is engaged with the puck carrier and now he supposed to pick up the defenseman too?

    Yes, it was Nurse and Larsson on that play. You are correct — Larsson was engaging the puck carrier and there is no way that he can do that and cover off the defenceman, too.

  165. jtblack says:

    I got to watch the Canadian Womens Olympic team last night. They are playing AAA Midget teams across Alberta over the next few months.

    I came away from the game thoroughly impressed with their skill, skating and passing. Maybe the Oilers can’t put 2 passes together, but the Womens team can put 4 and 5 together.

    If any of you get a chance, go watch them!

  166. russ99 says:

    Lowetide: Absolutely true, but we should also mention the acquisition of Cam Talbot, Patrick Maroon, Zack Kassian and Matt Benning. Chiarelli’s trades of Hall and the two picks (15, 33) are a big factor in the current scenario but it’s important to acknowledge the entire record.

    Also, offensive/goal scoring talent isn’t the only kind of talent on a hockey club.

    Admit it, this is all about that mythical three scoring lines rushing up and down the ice, “Oilers Hockey”, et. al. and not about how cup-winning hockey rosters are constructed in the real world.

    I understand the gripes about this year’s roster, and they could very well be real and scary. But holding onto the Hall trade with claws out because of playing style preferences and/or calling a coach with a Stanley Cup ring ineffectual or mediocre is a bit petty.

    Wins are wins. Last year we won a lot of games and were a held goalie pad away from winning two playoff series with this style of hockey, and a heavy Chiarelli-style team. I’d think those results deserve some patience this year as things work themselves out.

    Maybe not 40 games of patience but sure as hell not just 5 games.

  167. Kinger_Oil.redux says:

    Cassandra: Who is trolling who?You routinely call Larsson a #1 defensemen.Which is absurd.

    – I’d put Larsson in the top-17 RHD in the league, yes over the last 2 years. I pick top-17 because Hall is the 17th most productive LW last 2 years. I believe Larsson also has considerable upside

    – Larsson is also deployed as a #1 D, in terms of usage at evens.

    – What’s absurd?

  168. Lowetide says:

    russ99: Also, offensive/goal scoring talent isn’t the only kind of talent on a hockey club.

    Very true. I think we (I) sometimes forget that, partly because measuring defensive performance has proven a more difficult process.

  169. Chachi says:

    jtblack:
    I got to watch the Canadian Womens Olympic team last night.They are playing AAA Midget teams across Alberta over the next few months.

    I came away from the game thoroughly impressed with their skill, skating and passing. Maybe the Oilers can’t put 2 passes together, but the Womens team can put 4 and 5 together.

    If any of you get a chance, go watch them!

    This is a great recommendation. I also saw them play a Midget AAA team a couple of weeks ago and they put on a great show. It is a fun pure hockey experience.

  170. Chachi says:

    Kinger_Oil.redux: – I’d put Larsson in the top-17 RHD in the league, yes over the last 2 years.I pick top-17 because Hall is the 17th most productive LW last 2 years.I believe Larsson also has considerable upside

    – Larsson is also deployed as a #1 D, in terms of usage at evens.

    – What’s absurd?

    I feel like this needs to be posted more often as a reminder:

    “It’s the dreaded 1 for 3 deal without the 3
    I hate being right. I’ve disliked Chiarelli since the beginning and he’s only gotten worse.
    I make this vow. I will poison this board with hatred for Chiarelli for as long as he lives. I don’t care if the Oilers make the playoffs. It they do, they would have made it anyway. It they don’t, it is his fault.
    I don’t even care if they win the Stanley Cup. If they do, it is in spite of this move.
    Anyone who defends Chiarelli from here until the end of time will be trolled mercilessly. Begone traitors. Your attitude has aided and abetted the ruination.”

  171. VOR says:

    T0ML:
    So i know we have some coaches here … Question regarding Levels in USA hockey in case anyone knows.

    Im currently a Level 2 coach, was registered for Level 3 class last sunday …. I got the dates mixed up .. going from 2 to 3, do I *need* to get level 3 done this year? Or is it possibly to wait until next year to take it?Im not currently coaching, have it more because i wanted to.Just dont want to lose the progress ive got.Without driving ~2 hours on a saturday to take one of the last two in my state …

    Thanks,
    -Spencer

    Spencer I would need to know more in order to help. I am assuming you are Track 1, Level 2 at the moment. So when were you certified as a Level 2 and when does that expire? If you are now eilgible to take Level 3 for the first ime (and not recertification) my understanding is you have two years to complete the level from the time you become eligible. Once you have completed the level then you need to recertify within 2 years. I don’t believe it makes any difference if you are coaching in those two year windows or not. You needed the coaching experience to be eligible to take Level 3 but from then on there isn’t as I understand it any requirement to maintain active coaching. Though I am not sure why you would take Level 3 if you weren’t going to coach and if you ever want to be Level 4 you have to actively coach and gain more experience at Level 3. I hope that helps but you really need to check with usahockey.

  172. Bruce McCurdy says:

    Kinger_Oil.redux: – I’ve talked about this before: In backgammon, the break-through in analysis was the ability to calculate for each move “equity won or loss”.

    – Its the same issue in hockey.Some errors cause greater loss in equity (or positive).We are still at the rudimentary stage of this in Hockey.Ricki’s box might help advance it. …

    – To assign a 0 or 1 to each action, as your colleague does, it’s certainly better than no data, but the weight of each assignment on actual results isn’t equal distribution.

    – LT alludes a little to this when he talks about single events.All corsi is not equal, all saves are not equal, in terms of skill/luck/impact.It’s not enough to say that “it evens out”

    More than a 0 or a 1. It’s a 2×2 matrix: major or minor contributions to Grade A or Grade B scoring chances.

  173. Cassandra says:

    Chachi,

    You should go look up what I wrote after the Reinhart trade. That trade wasn’t awful in hindsight, it was catastrophically stupid at the time, as everyone should have known, and some did.

    It hardly matters. There is nothing left to talk about. Kinger asked me why I didn’t think Larsson was a #1 D, as if I hadn’t given my reasons a hundred times before.

    It’s all been said, and one side has never learned to listen, while the other is tired of repeating itself. All that is left is to chase the remaining good players out of town, if the Oilers lose, or blame Hall and Eberle, if the Oilers win.

    And this last is what gets me more than anything else.

  174. GMB3 says:

    godot10: With this coach, the systems don’t change.The systems are fine.The players have to change.

    He even said so coming into the job in Edmonton.He doesn’t care who the players are in the jerseys.And that they will get different players if they have to.

    And that is a hilarious take by a head coach because it’s much easier finding a coach who can coach the style of team you have than it is to find skilled players

  175. commonfan29 says:

    The Oilers are 4 points out of a playoff spot this morning.

    If they’re any further back than that at the end of this month, history tells us it’s over.

    Sobering.

  176. Chachi says:

    Cassandra:
    Chachi,

    You should go look up what I wrote after the Reinhart trade.That trade wasn’t awful in hindsight, it was catastrophically stupid at the time, as everyone should have known, and some did.

    It hardly matters.There is nothing left to talk about.Kinger asked me why I didn’t think Larsson was a #1 D, as if I hadn’t given my reasons a hundred times before.

    It’s all been said, and one side has never learned to listen, while the other is tired of repeating itself.All that is left is to chase the remaining good players out of town, if the Oilers lose, or blame Hall and Eberle, if the Oilers win.

    And this last is what gets me more than anything else.

    Because you wrote this:

    “It’s the dreaded 1 for 3 deal without the 3
    I hate being right. I’ve disliked Chiarelli since the beginning and he’s only gotten worse.
    I make this vow. I will poison this board with hatred for Chiarelli for as long as he lives. I don’t care if the Oilers make the playoffs. It they do, they would have made it anyway. It they don’t, it is his fault.
    I don’t even care if they win the Stanley Cup. If they do, it is in spite of this move.
    Anyone who defends Chiarelli from here until the end of time will be trolled mercilessly. Begone traitors. Your attitude has aided and abetted the ruination.”

    when I read what you post I read it through that lens. Too bad.

  177. T0ML says:

    Cool thanks, thats about what i remembered. Basically I was doing goalie coaching for a couple years and the rink I was at asked me to pick up a Level 1, I did that. Took level 2 last year. Registered for 3 this year. I couldnt remember if it was one or two years from 2->3. I believe I need to do SafeSport regardless (Good for 2 years I believe). Thanks for the info!.

    VOR: Spencer I would need to know more in order to help. I am assuming you are Track 1, Level 2 at the moment. So when were you certified as a Level 2 and when does that expire? If you are now eilgible to take Level 3 for the first ime (and not recertification) my understanding is you have two years to complete the level from the time you become eligible. Once you have completed the level then you need to recertify within 2 years. I don’t believe it makes any difference if you are coaching in those two year windows or not. You needed the coaching experience to be eligible to take Level 3 but from then on there isn’t as I understand it any requirement to maintain active coaching. Though I am not sure why you would take Level 3 if you weren’t going to coach and if you ever want to be Level 4 you have to actively coach and gain more experience at Level 3. I hope that helps but you really need to check with usahockey.

  178. Kinger_Oil.redux says:

    Bruce McCurdy: More than a 0 or a 1. It’s a 2×2 matrix: major or minor contributions to Grade A or Grade B scoring chances.

    – True, that A B does provide more granularity, I didn’t mean to mis-represent. I like reading his analysis: but in Chess or Backgammon (I’m not comparing them to hockey), each move effects the outcome to a different degree either positively or negatively. This is quantifiable.

    – i.e. Chessmaster makes huge blunder in one move, and goes from 55% probablilty to 45%.

    – Its not just : “he made one bad move, but the other 45 before were good or very good moves”

    – Hockey doesn’t have this ability: to assign value to the contribution of each “move”

  179. sliderule says:

    My captain,my captain is starting to look old at a very young age.

    Methinks that there is more going on behind the oiler curtains than we know, that is aging him fast

  180. leadfarmer says:

    I’m worried what kind of moves a desperate Chia would make.

  181. OriginalPouzar says:

    I’m petrified of a Chris Kelly signing due to the PK.

  182. New Improved Darkness says:

    Woodguy v2.0:
    Bag of Pucks,
    No longer on roster: Reinhart
    Return for Reinhart 0

    Woodguy, you’re one of the long straws here, but this is a rookie error on your part.

    No longer on roster: Reinhart
    Return for Reinhart: one nullified Los Vegas roster-rape coupon

    A gentlemen also calculates the cap differential on the before/after, because for a cap team, that differential was either spent before, or will be spent afterwards.

    On something.

    Perhaps of value.

  183. fifthcartel says:

    New Improved Darkness,

    This is really reaching. It was a brutal trade that yielded very little in terms of value. Losing Reinhart instead of Khaira or Brossoit really isn’t much of a difference.

    I’m a huge believer that Chiarelli has made three incredibly bad trades and the roster suffers because of it. Those moves and the corresponding ones caused incredible damage to the Oilers’ long term look.

    Arguing cap savings when you’re trading Taylor Hall and Jordan Eberle is pretty ridiculous. Using those cap savings on Milan Lucic and Kris Russell is even more ridiculous.

    You’d think after trading the 16th and 33rd picks in the 2015 draft, Taylor Hall, and Jordan Eberle that there wouldn’t be any concerns on defense, but that’s where we are. Meanwhile the Oilers’ division rival has 2 top-four RHD for only picks. If only Edmonton could have gotten one of those!

  184. Snowman says:

    New Improved Darkness: Woodguy, you’re one of the long straws here, but this is a rookie error on your part.

    A gentlemen also calculates the cap differential on the before/after, because for a cap team, that differential was either spent before, or will be spent afterwards.

    On something.

    Perhaps of value.

    They traded away two high picks for $832,500 in salary cap? Is that what you’re trying to say? They got nothing for Reinhart. They lost him to expansion. They traded away two very valuable assets and got less than 1M in cap savings.

    There is no redeeming the Reinhart trade. None.

    You can’t even squint and look at it sideways to kinda see cap relief or some other silver lining. It was a big time mistake.

  185. Professor Q says:

    New Improved Darkness,

    And perhaps not the best choice of words?

  186. hags9k says:

    pocession charge:
    People who are knocking Lucic for Klefbom’s fuck up on the offensive blue line have obviously not played hockey before.That was not a bad pass.It might not have been perfectly on Klefbom’s tape but in the NHL you are expected to handle a pass like that.He booted the ball, plain and simple.

    Not to nitpick one sigular moment but in the postgame the head coach referred to it as a hand grenade, and he has played hockey.

    If Klefbom controls that pass it is a great play by him, because it was off time, in his feet, and a lazer from 15 feet.

    Where was the other D to be there and take that rim? I’m not sure how big Looch ended up back there in an unfamiliar situation.

    The rimmed pass by Letestu that preceded it was nothing to write home about either, he might have passed up a shot on net.

  187. Mr. D. says:

    OriginalPouzar,

    Many times the D will direct the back checkers off their coverage.

  188. NYC-Back-to-Tokyo Oil (Gentleman Backpacker) says:

    If we are really bringing up the Reinhart trade again, it wasn’t bad in hindsight. It was terrible in hindsight- an offense egregious enough that it could affect one’s job security.

    In real time it was bad. We had the deepest draft in a dozen years and I understand the argument that McDavid’s arrival moved the timeline to compete forward, but many people pointed out how Reinhart had been passed on the Islanders’ blueline depth chart by the likes of Pulock and others and that Islanders bloggers and reporters were alluding to footspeed issues at the AHL level. Trading the picks wasn’t the issue–if they had landed Dougie Hamilton, who isn’t even that amazing defensively but is certainly dynamic in moving the puck the other way, but instead they swung and missed on an AHL player that they thought could cover the bet. There were yellow flags all over the place on their target.

    Bob Green, who possibly spearheaded the trade, or at least was a supporter of it, said he hadn’t seen him play much in Bridgeport but of course had seen him plenty with the Oil Kings. Outdated intel.

    And for those who are bringing up the other trade, if Chiarelli had traded 16 and 33 for Hamilton, would Hall for Larsson have still happened?

    This post is not meant to be an attack on Chiarelli overall. He has made some very good moves with Talbot and Maroon and Kassian, and a good one with Sekera. I still think he is an average NHL GM–that opinion has not changed yet. I like to look at the totality of his record and to me there’s a bunch of good and a bunch of bad. I know last year after the team had some success my opinion was unpopular, but I’m not changing it because of a slow start this year. I still think he’s smart and competent and he can figure it out; in my opinion he’s just never been the rock star some people think he is (because standings).

  189. Kinger_Oil.redux says:

    Chachi: Because you wrote this:

    “It’s the dreaded 1 for 3 deal without the 3
    I hate being right. I’ve disliked Chiarelli since the beginning and he’s only gotten worse.
    I make this vow. I will poison this board with hatred for Chiarelli for as long as he lives. I don’t care if the Oilers make the playoffs. It they do, they would have made it anyway. It they don’t, it is his fault.
    I don’t even care if they win the Stanley Cup. If they do, it is in spite of this move.
    Anyone who defends Chiarelli from here until the end of time will be trolled mercilessly. Begone traitors. Your attitude has aided and abetted the ruination.”

    when I read what you post I read it through that lens. Too bad.

    – Thanks for the reminder of this. I really shouldn’t engage him. This thread really went off the deep end with some crazy talk IMO…

    – I still enjoy discussing the Larsson Hall, or looking at the moves Chia has done and all that stuff.

  190. Woodguy v2.0 says:

    All,

    I was arguing w/ BoP specifically about the particular trades in question as they all involved “A” assets.

    I was not arguing Chiarelli’s entire trade/signing record with the Oilers.

    So everyone demanding a full accounting of Chia’s moves was not understanding the genesis of the conversation. There are many facets to what he has done, this concerns top end assets.

    The cap space question is fair and I’ll address it at the end.

    What spurred the whole thing was that I wrote that when EDM won the McDavid lottery it was my position that they had a top 5, and maybe a top 3 asset/player core in the NHL and were poised to kill it.

    “A” grade assets that they had draft day 2015:
    McDavid- All world talent AAA asset
    Hall – Top 5 LW in the league
    Eberle – 1st line RW
    RNH – low end 1C, good 2C
    Draisaitl – projecting to be 1C/2C material
    Klefbom – well on his way to quality top pairing Dman
    16 in a very deep draft that was like a top 10 in most drafts – Ek was available for their pick on top of their list
    32 in a very deep draft that was like 15-20 in a regular draft – RHD was a primary need as exemplified by Chiarelli’s consistent and Bob said Carlo was their probable choice there.

    That’s your top 6 set for a long time with your 1LW set and a very good RD who might be a 2/3 one day.

    Those are among the toughest pieces to get. High end players are not available for free except at the draft.

    Now all those A assets have turned into:
    McDavid
    Drai – paid like a top 10 NHL talent no clue if he is top 25 NHL talent yet
    RNH – low end 1C, good 2C
    Klefbom – top pairing Dman
    Larsson – 1RD – good 2/3 Dman
    Strome – 3C/2RW

    So instead of having all top 6F positions fixed they have 3.ish.

    They have a 1RD who is a 2/3 Dman and that is better than before, but what is gone is much, much heavier in value.

    This team has not won the goal share with McDavid off the ice for his career and Chiarelli’s time here and it looks to be happening again.

    There is no question in my mind that not making those moves has the Oilers with a +50%GF with McDavid off the ice.

    Klef didn’t need a Larsson, he just needed competence in a partner which could have been had through free agency or a lesser trade than Hall.

    In 15/16 Klef had a +1.1% RelGF away from McDavid – The Oilers goal share without McDavid on the ice was worse when Klef was off than when he was on.

    in 16/17 with Larsson Klef had a -4.8% Rel GF away from McDavid – The Oiler goal share without McDavid on the ice was worse when Klef was on than when he was off.

    He didn’t need to spend a Hall to get a partner for Klef.

    There is no argument for the Reinhart trade. Almost the entire Oilogosphere derided it the second it happened and all the Isles fans rejoiced.

    Eberle is a pure buydown. We’ll see if Strome can stick in the top 6 and produce.

    As for the cap space:

    Saved 1.8M Hall-> Larsson
    Saved 3.5M Eberle -> Strome

    Total – 5.3MM

    That’s about the Oilers cap space this year if they leave JP in the AHL all year and he isn’t available for bonuses.

    Cap space today $8MM
    Bonuses available on current roster:
    McDavid 2.85
    Sleppy .600
    Caggiula .425
    Benning .300
    Nurse .850

    Total possible bonuses $5.025

    Probable? Just the TOI bonuses (aside from McDavid) as far as I can see and they’re never that that much.

    If you want to get into Chiarelli’s whole body of work I have lots of good things to say and some bad things about long term contracts.

    If you want to talk about how he’s handled his grade A assets?

    Its a massive loss of value and its not close.

  191. Woodguy v2.0 says:

    New Improved Darkness: Woodguy, you’re one of the long straws here, but this is a rookie error on your part.

    A gentlemen also calculates the cap differential on the before/after, because for a cap team, that differential was either spent before, or will be spent afterwards.

    On something.

    Perhaps of value.

    The Oilers protected their 4C and 4RW in the expansion draft

    The coupon wasn’t needed

    The cap was addressed in my last post as its a fair question, but it wasn’t the subject.

    The subject was assets of value.

    Having good players at good contracts trumps cap space.

    Especially when you hand out long term money like Peter does.

  192. Woodguy v2.0 says:

    Kinger_Oil.redux:
    Woodguy v2.0,

    – this is just trolling IMO.You have selected two trades, ignored their cap savings, and made a conclusion on Chia’s trading track record as a whole since he’s arrived on a small sample size.

    and you should really not comment on things when you don’t have the information about what the conversation is.

    The conversation is specifically about those trades.

    But jump right in a bitch about things that weren’t there like you always do.

    Troll?

    Do us both and everyone else here a favour and stop replying to me.

    I stopped replying to you when you asked.

  193. Lowetide says:

    WG: I absolutely jumped in mid-discussion. Enjoyed it a lot! 🙂

  194. Material pocession says:

    Woodguy v2.0,

    Solid post WG. The only point that I would contest would be Eberle’s value from 2015 on. I don’t think that he was an A asset in the eyes of the other GM’s in the league. In this NHL, defensive prowess is highly regarded and that is Eberle’s weakness. I think Chia traded a B asset for a C asset on that one. With Hall, I think he lost value but again not massive value. Chia traded an A asset for an A/B asset. He squandered some of the cap space with his long term deals.

  195. OmJo says:

    Woodguy v2.0,

    *Slow clap*

    Looking at our cap… $2.3M of cap space is being used on Korpse and Pouliot this season. Next season, $1.3M on Pouliot. $4M on Russell. $6M on Lucic. That’s $11.3M wasted in cap space next season 3 players until 2021, 2 of which are on our roster due to poor contracts.

    If Chiarelli is making these moves to make cap space, how much of that is due to his poor performance with managing the cap to begin with?

  196. Woodguy v2.0 says:

    Lowetide:
    WG: I absolutely jumped in mid-discussion. Enjoyed it a lot!

    *shakes fist* & thanks.

  197. Woodguy v2.0 says:

    Material pocession:
    Woodguy v2.0,

    Solid post WG.The only point that I would contest would be Eberle’s value from 2015 on.I don’t think that he was an A asset in the eyes of the other GM’s in the league.In this NHL, defensive prowess is highly regarded and that is Eberle’s weakness. I think Chia traded a B asset for a C asset on that one.With Hall, I think he lost value but again not massive value.Chia traded an A asset for an A/B asset.He squandered some of the cap space with his long term deals.

    I understand that line of thinking with Eberle and it has merit.

    My contention is that he consistently produces at a top line rate.

    Since the last lockout he’s 22nd in the NHL in 5v5 goals scored.

    Here’s the top 25.

    Player G
    COREY.PERRY 86
    MAX.PACIORETTY 84
    PATRICK.KANE 84
    VLADIMIR.TARASENKO 83
    ALEX.OVECHKIN 81
    JEFF.SKINNER 80
    SIDNEY.CROSBY 80
    TYLER.SEGUIN 80
    JOE.PAVELSKI 77
    PHIL.KESSEL 74
    JAMIE.BENN 73
    JOHN.TAVARES 73
    BRAD.MARCHAND 70
    BRANDON.SAAD 70
    JAMES.NEAL 68
    RICK.NASH 68
    SEAN.MONAHAN 66
    EVGENI.MALKIN 65
    PATRICE.BERGERON 64
    TOMAS.TATAR 64
    JORDAN.EBERLE 63
    MATT.DUCHENE 63
    NIKITA.KUCHEROV 63
    BRENT.BURNS 62

    He was also one of the few forwards last year to put up a 50%+ GF% when McDavid wasn’t on the ice last year.

    The Oilers also scored at identical rates when either Eberle or Draisaitl was with McDavid last year when you control for the LW.

    He may not have quite as much value as other “A” assets, but he certainly has more value than a Strome and cap space.

  198. Kinger_Oil.redux says:

    Woodguy v2.0: and you should really not comment on things when you don’t have the information about what the conversation is.

    Do us both and everyone else here a favour and stop replying to me.

    I stopped replying to you when you asked.

    – ???

    – This is what I was replying to: “The amount of hoops you and other people jump through to justify obviously asset draining moves is amazing”.

    – Clearly the coup detente didn’t work… Cheers

  199. Woodguy v2.0 says:

    Kinger_Oil.redux: – this is just trolling IMO. You have selected two trades, ignored their cap savings, and made a conclusion on Chia’s trading track record as a whole since he’s arrived on a small sample size.

    You wrote this:

    – this is just trolling IMO. You have selected two trades, ignored their cap savings, and made a conclusion on Chia’s trading track record as a whole since he’s arrived on a small sample size.

    In response to a conversation that was exclusively about those trades only.

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