Bear Market

The Bakersfield Condors are five games into their 68-game schedule and there’s only the first hints of what is to come over a long AHL season. Still, I’m fairly certain we have enough statistical information to argue over well past midnight. Let’s  talk about the blue.

CONDORS DEFENSE 2017-18

  • This is really early. Also, I counted the ev gf-ga by hand, so there may be a mistake or two in those numbers.
  • Ethan Bear has had an electric start to the season, two shots and they both went in! All of his points at even strength (all Condors blue have posted their boxcars on the 5×5 apparently), and a stunning 8-2 GF-GA run in the same discipline. He’s doing very well.
  • Ryan Mantha has also done well in the first weeks of his pro career. Nine shots on goal, picked up two assists in the same game, he’s played some with Keegan Lowe and Dillon Simpson.
  • Dillon Simpson appears to be the reliable vet in the group, despite entering just his fourth pro season. He’s shooting a lot more than one year ago (58 shots in 53 games 2016-17) but that probably evens out over time. He’s going to be in the mentor role, suspect he and Keegan Lowe will be covering off mistakes for most of the year.
  • Caleb Jones has struggled based purely on numbers, he’s -5 at evens gf-ga and there are injuries so he may have been playing when sitting a game would have been beneficial. Jones was fantastic in Oilers camp, he may post Bear-like numbers in the next five so no panic.
  • Ziyat Paigin has played in three games so far, he was a little behind the others based on camp. Seems to be low-event so far but that’s just a guess.

If they needed a recall tonight, I’d hope Dillon Simpson would be the name chosen. Bear is having a nice start to the season, suspect the Oilers are better off allowing him to build on that success over the coming months. Remember, in camp it was Jones who looked like he was ahead of the rest. A month from now it could be another player.

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30 Responses to "Bear Market"

  1. OriginalPouzar says:

    I’m a bit surprised at the beginning of the season. I thought Bear would struggle with the speed of the pro game and get better throughout the year.

    I knew he had been putting up points but I didn’t realize his goal share was off the charts at evens.

    Great job by Bear.

    A portion of the masses are already contemplating call-up but I can’t imagine that happening without a few injuries (and blowing through the veterans – Simpson, Lowe, Fayne).

    I think the kid deserves the opportunity to spend the year in the AHL and develop – the organization owes him the privilege.

    Great start.

  2. OriginalPouzar says:

    I think it really helps Bear that he’s getting to play with the best “veteran” on the team in Dillon Simpson who is, almost certainly, the first call-up when needed.

  3. OriginalPouzar says:

    I thought Bear’s goal last night was on the PP but, after your post and looking at the video again, it wasn’t a PP, just a PP-like goal.

    Safin was third start in the Sea Dogs game earlier today.

  4. speeds says:

    Im not saying EDM should recall Bear tomorrow – I do wonder, if he has success on the PP for a sustained period in the a, do the Oilers look at a recall if they feel they need a rh d pp option, and lineup 11F/7D? The lack of a 12 f they may not see as a problem – more ice for CMD or LD or RNh?

  5. Lowetide says:

    speeds:
    Im not saying EDM should recall Bear tomorrow – I do wonder, if he has success on the PP for a sustained period in the a, do the Oilers look at a recall if they feel they need a rh d pp option, and lineup 11F/7D?The lack of a 12 f they may not see as a problem – more ice for CMD or LD or RNh?

    Great point. His shot does seem to be a real asset.

  6. TheVengeFulOne says:

    Could try Russell at RW and put Bear on the 2nd pair.

  7. OriginalPouzar says:

    I don’t believe the lack of a right hand point shot is a problem for our PP1 – the problem right now is the lack of Leon Draisaitl.

    I know there was some talk in the morning thread that the PP woes are due to teams figuring out the PP from last year but I don’t agree – I think its (1) lack of Leon who really is the driver of the PP, not McDavid and (2) the fact that PPs get hot and cold – our PP1 was terrible at the beginning of last year and there were calls to fire Jay W. – PP ended up one of the best in the league.

    I think Bear deserves the privilege of more than 5 games in the AHL (or even 20) before he’s thrust to the NHL with pressure to help turn around a struggling team and a struggling PP.

    I have no idea if he’l get there but there is a chance that Ethan Bear can be a material player for this team and we need to do everything we can to help develop that. I can’t see playing NHL games in 2017 being helpful in that regard.

  8. flyfish1168 says:

    OriginalPouzar:
    I don’t believe the lack of a right hand point shot is a problem for our PP1 – the problem right now is the lack of Leon Draisaitl.

    I know there was some talk in the morning thread that the PP woes are due to teams figuring out the PP from last year but I don’t agree – I think its (1) lack of Leon who really is the driver of the PP, not McDavid and (2) the fact that PPs get hot and cold – our PP1 was terrible at the beginning of last year and there were calls to fire Jay W. – PP ended up one of the best in the league.

    I think Bear deserves the privilege of more than 5 games in the AHL (or even 20) before he’s thrust to the NHL with pressure to help turn around a struggling team and a struggling PP.

    I have no idea if he’l get there but there is a chance that Ethan Bear can be a material player for this team and we need to do everything we can to help develop that. I can’t see playing NHL games in 2017 being helpful in that regard.

    To predictable, not enough shots, deferring almost all the plays through Connor. Just my take as part of the problem with the PP

  9. OriginalPouzar says:

    That very well could be right but, again, its missing its most important element which cuts down on its options.

    We really need Leon back soon.

    Here’s hoping in 48 hours from now, he’s on the ice and looking like playoff Leon!

  10. Pouzar says:

    For the Love of everything Holy Can we please let one frickin prospect marinate BEFORE ruining them?

    I guess calling them up after a handful of games would be a step in the right direction for this organization.

    Now that Dillon Simpson kid…………..

    Yes…I’m in a pissy mood.

  11. thehop says:

    TheVengeFulOne,

    You could trade Russell for a bag of pucks and put Bear on the second pairing too.

    Also,

    #freeSlepyFFS

  12. TheVengeFulOne says:

    thehop:
    TheVengeFulOne,

    You could trade Russell for a bag of pucks and put Bear on the second pairing too.

    Also,

    #freeSlepyFFS

    Slepyshev had 2goals and 4 assists from Jan 12 to the end of the season, which by my count was 26 games. Then 3 goals in 12. That was when he made his return, and people stated to think he might be a real player. Pro rate that scoring, and you get 11g, 9 assists. I don’t for the life of me see how he is the answer. He has only scored over 20pts twice in any pro league (25 in KHL, and 21 in 50 AHL games). We can bitch about JP, but that is not a history of offensive success.

  13. OriginalPouzar says:

    Wells get the night off tonight and Skinner stops 36 of 38 in a 7-2 win.

    Pretty good night for the junior kids in action.

  14. OriginalPouzar says:

    I would like to see Slepy with a stretch of game up the lineup however I agree that some might be over-stating his potential offence. While he has the speed, skill and shot, I rarely see him actually getting the shot off from a scoring area – they are usually from fairly far out and off the rush – very little chance of socring. His NHL P/60 is extremely low if I’m not mistaken.

    Maybe if he plays with some more offensive players he will be able to use his shot from better scoring areas?

  15. LadiesloveSmid says:

    TheVengeFulOne,

    I personally just think Slepy looks faster and more refined than last year. I want JP and Slepy to be the top 2 RWs

  16. Evilas says:

    OriginalPouzar,

    Agreed of course. We’ve got Simpson, Lowe, Fayne and Stanton who will be called up before any of the kids will be this year. 2 goals on 2 shots in 5 games, that’s great, but this only proves that he isn’t a dominant offensive force right now, just an opportunistic one. I hope for continued success, but this year and next year all of the first year D down in the Bake need to stay there and develop. I think if one of them does get called up, that would likely mean this franchise is in a bit of trouble.

  17. Evilas says:

    Oilerdom, LT, my apologies, but it is ALL MY FAULT that the team isn’t scoring, but I have righted this misstep and I have put my Oilers mini gloves on the rearview of my new vehicle. I cleaned everything out of my truck when I bought it 5 weeks ago and I apologize for lack of goals and leaking ‘tending.

    It’s all good now, sorry for the scare, but the Force is back in balance again….

    I promise I won’t do it again!

    Sorry folks

  18. Lowetide says:

    Evilas:
    Oilerdom, LT, my apologies, but it is ALL MY FAULT that the team isn’t scoring, but I have righted this misstep and I have put my Oilers mini gloves on the rearview of my new vehicle.I cleaned everything out of my truck when I bought it 5 weeks ago and I apologize for lack of goals and leaking ‘tending.

    It’s all good now, sorry for the scare, but the Force is back in balance again….

    I promise I won’t do it again!

    Sorry folks

    No worries,just glad you didn’t wait until spring! 🙂

  19. Snowman says:

    TheVengeFulOne: Slepyshev had 2goals and 4 assists from Jan 12 to the end of the season, which by my count was 26 games.Then 3 goals in 12. That was when he made his return, and people stated to think he might be a real player. Pro rate that scoring, and you get 11g, 9 assists. I don’t for the life of me see how he is the answer. He has only scored over 20pts twice in any pro league (25 in KHL, and 21 in 50 AHL games). We can bitch about JP, but that is not a history of offensive success.

    I agree with this. Sleppy is at best a third liner in my opinion. He has flashes of skill but they are too far and too few. He has a heavy shot and he’s fast and big but I don’t think he’s a top 6 winger. He can’t make plays or he can’t make enough of them anyways (this is all eye test btw). These numbers bear that out.

    This #freesleppy thing should turn into #sendyamamototojuniorandtrytotradestromeforeberle.

    In all seriousness though if Leon is your top line RW that’s fine. But you need to get Nuge a proper RW then. Strome isn’t it. And Lucic is lagging. Strome isn’t a fast train and Lucic is basically an oil tanker on skates. Need a little more speed there and more skill.

  20. hags9k says:

    Can someone give me an idea about JPs bonus dollars and how long he has to stay down before they burn off?

    The more I think about it, the more I think he could be the tonic for this team. Keep KY up for 9, send down. Bring JP up when the dollars make sense. We drafted him at #4. Give him his big league at bats.

    KY has done well, but it’s not his time. In my opinion JP represents the best chance at Draisatl staying on a 2nd line.

  21. deardylan says:

    Can you imagine the Oilers team a year from now with young guns of McDavid, Bear, Jones, Nurse, Puljujarvi, and Yamamoto together?

    The future will be burning so bright the other pacific teams down south better start upgrading their shades.

  22. OriginalPouzar says:

    There are some attainable bonuses such as 20G, 45P and top 6 for TOI (I believe) with a min of 42 games played that are still attainable but getting somewhat unlikely.

    The majority of the bonuses deal with major league trophies and are essentially unattainable.

    I’m not so sure the bonus issue is a material one this year, however, if our GM is planning on spending the rest of our cap dollars, i’m sure he’d be remiss to even $400K of Jesse’s bonuses vesting and grinding next year’s cap.

  23. OriginalPouzar says:

    deardylan:
    Can you imagine the Oilers team a year from now with young guns of McDavid, Bear, Jones, Nurse, Puljujarvi, and Yamamoto together?

    The future will be burning so bright the other pacific teams down south better start upgrading their shades.

    I don’t imagine two ELC d-men making the jump next year but time will tell.

  24. OmJo says:

    OriginalPouzar:
    There are some attainable bonuses such as 20G, 45P and top 6 for TOI (I believe) with a min of 42 games played that are still attainable but getting somewhat unlikely.

    The majority of the bonuses deal with major league trophies and are essentially unattainable.

    I’m not so sure the bonus issue is a material one this year, however, if our GM is planning on spending the rest of our cap dollars, i’m sure he’d be remiss to even $400K of Jesse’s bonuses vesting and grinding next year’s cap.

    Capfriendly has Puljujarvi’s max performance bonus at 2.5M. I’m not sure what that would look like in terms of boxscores, TOI, etc (where does one find this information to begin with?)

    What’s better, wasting of a year of Yamamoto’s ELC to save on Puljujarvi’s potential bonuses, or calling up Puljujarvi and saving a year of Yamamoto’s ELC?

    Do we save an ELC year with Puljujarvi by keeping him in the AHL all season, or did that only count for last season if we sent him back to Finland?

  25. flea says:

    OmJo,

    I’m pretty sure Puljujarvi’s ELC is getting burned off in Bakersfield. He’s playing pro hockey for the Oilers (or their farm team) and that is what the contract is for, so it’s getting used up.

    Last year, sending him to Finland would’ve saved a year – this year I’m not sure. I’d guess that yes, it would save a year of the contract just because he wouldn’t be playing for the Oilers. But I think that point is moot now with him underway in Bakersfield.

  26. hags9k says:

    OriginalPouzar,

    Thanks OP and OMJO. I was wondering how his potential bonuses could affect our cap situation at the deadline. If it’s not going to make much of a difference, you have to bring him up and save KY’s ELC year right?

    It’s tough because the vets really aren’t outplaying KY, which might make it an easier call.

  27. OriginalPouzar says:

    OmJo: Capfriendly has Puljujarvi’s max performance bonus at 2.5M. I’m not sure what that would look like in terms of boxscores, TOI, etc (where does one find this information to begin with?)

    What’s better, wasting of a year of Yamamoto’s ELC to save on Puljujarvi’s potential bonuses, or calling up Puljujarvi and saving a year of Yamamoto’s ELC?

    Do we save an ELC year with Puljujarvi by keeping him in the AHL all season, or did that only count for last season if we sent him back to Finland?

    The potential performance bonuses that can be in an ELC are set out in Exhibit 5 of the CBA.

    Most of them deal with league trophies and are unattainable.

    http://www.nhl.com/nhl/en/v3/ext/CBA2012/NHL_NHLPA_2013_CBA.pdf

  28. OriginalPouzar says:

    flea:
    OmJo,

    I’m pretty sure Puljujarvi’s ELC is getting burned off in Bakersfield. He’s playing pro hockey for the Oilers (or their farm team) and that is what the contract is for, so it’s getting used up.

    Last year, sending him to Finland would’ve saved a year – this year I’m not sure. I’d guess that yes, it would save a year of the contract just because he wouldn’t be playing for the Oilers. But I think that point is moot now with him underway in Bakersfield.

    Yes, his ELC is currently running.

    It was subject to slide last year if he didn’t play 10 games in the NHL (even though he was playing pro in the AHL) but the team chose not to go that route.

  29. OriginalPouzar says:

    hags9k:
    OriginalPouzar,

    Thanks OP and OMJO.I was wondering how his potential bonuses could affect our cap situation at the deadline.If it’s not going to make much of a difference, you have to bring him up and save KY’s ELC year right?

    It’s tough because the vets really aren’t outplaying KY, which might make it an easier call.

    His bonuses don’t effect the cap for this year, however, if he hits his bonuses and we go over the cap because of it, we get a penalty next season and it reduces the available cap space next season.

  30. Yeti says:

    deardylan:
    Can you imagine the Oilers team a year from now with young guns of McDavid, Bear, Jones, Nurse, Puljujarvi, and Yamamoto together?

    The future will be burning so bright the other pacific teams down south better start upgrading their shades.

    That’s for sure! This is definitely the brightest future we’ve had since … well, the last bright future.

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