Setting Sons

In the middle of the game, Patrick Maroon said ‘to hell with this noise’ and got things back to even. After that, it felt like a game either side could win, but Edmonton didn’t cash any of their chances and Wayne Simmonds put it all to rest late in the game. We’re on to Crosbyville.

  • Todd McLellan: “We made one more mistake than they did & they got one more on the power play than we did.” Source

OH BOTHER, YEAR OVER YEAR

  • Oilers in October 2015: 3-4-0, goal differential -2
  • Oilers in October 2016: 6-1-0, goal differential +10
  • Oilers in October 2017: 2-5-0, goal differential -8

This is officially the worst start of the Chiarell-McLellan era, and at this point we can expect some movement. It might be subtle, something like more mention  of ‘build-mode’ during avails, and the return of Leon Draisaitl on Tuesday. At the other end of the spectrum, a real tweak in the roster, something substantial. I call for this all the time, but Peter Chiarelli owes it to his team to make sure they’re competitive. Edmonton is 2-5-0, including 1-3-0 without Leon Draisaitl. Leon’s coming back, but are you  sure that’s enough?

WHAT TO EXPECT FROM OCTOBER

  • At home to: Calgary (Expected: 1-0-0) (Actual 1-0-0)
  • On the road to: Vancouver  (Expected: 1-0-0) (Actual: 0-1-0)
  • At home to: Winnipeg, Ottawa, Carolina (Expected 1-1-1) (Actual: 0-3-0)
  • On the road to: Chicago, Philadelphia, Pittsburgh (Expected 1-1-1) (Actual 1-1-0)
  • At home to: Dallas, Washington (Expected 1-1-0) (Actual 0-0-0)
  • Overall expected result: 5-3-2, 12 points in 10 games 
  • Current results: 2-5-0, 4 points after seven games

The month is off the rails now, Edmonton trailing Los Angeles by nine points after seven games. There’s still time, and there are good arrows (Talbot appears to be in a good place, the team has given up three goals in the last two games) but it was pretty clear yesterday Philadelphia brought more skill to the rink. Leon Draisaitl will help, but Edmonton doesn’t have enough talent to outscore their mistakes, something they did a year ago. One of the culprits is injury, the lack of Leon and Andrej Sekera is having an effect for sure. PDO also suggests bad luck but I think it’s reasonable to suggest Edmonton lacks secondary scoring on merit: There isn’t enough skill on the roster.

DEFENSE, LAST NIGHT

  • Klefbom—Larsson went 18-20  together (13-10 Fenwick), Larsson also spent an eventful 1:28 with Russell (both teams scoring in those 98 seconds). Duo went 9-17 against Giroux—Couturier—Voracek, that line is an absolute handful.
  • Nurse—Gryba went 14-7 and that included 7-1 in scoring chances together. The duo played more than Russell—Benning, making them the de fact second pairing on the afternoon. Went 5-5 against the Couturier line and 5-1 against the Laughton trio. Gryba gets beaten wide and is playing too much for 7D, but math has never loved him more.
  • Russell—Benning went 9-11 together and there were issues for both men. Benning’s passes, a real strength one year ago, often result in less than ideal outcomes. One example from yesterday saw Benning send the puck from behind his net to Russell—who was covered like a blanket by a forechecker. The spot on the ice from the faceoff dot to just past Edmonton’s blue line was the exact location of the loss. Russell had his own issues, off balance and then diving on the first goal (unlucky too, puck went right to Giroux) and then the obvious “also in photo” execution on the winning goal. I’m more inclined to finger the man who released his mark (Ryan Strome), others blame Connor McDavid for a sloppy line change. One thing I’ve learned about Kris Russell: If you don’t like him, you really don’t like him and that’s fine, we can talk of other things. One thing we can say is that KR did not save the day on either play.
  • Cam Talbot was good again to my eye, no fault on either goal unless you didn’t like the rebound on the power-play marker. He stopped 22 of 24, .917. That should be good for a point at least most nights.
  • Natural Stat Trick and NHL.com.

FORWARDS

  • Maroon—McDavid—Yamamoto counted the only goal, a stellar tally by Patrick Maroon that included so much hard work and some skill. Oilers need some more ugly goals, good for the big winger. The line itself won the possession and scoring battle, were 2-2 in HDSC’s. Mcdavid is shooting more and that’s good, suspect he’s due for a big game. Yamamoto remains without a goal, Leon edges nearer the 1R job. McDavid took a high stick from Adam Larsson, causing heart attacks across Oilers Nation.
  • Lucic—Nuge—Strome went 5-12 and of course were on the ice for the winning goal. Lots of blame to go around, but the play was under control until Strome released his man, so that’s my culprit. Three shots for the line, no HD scoring chances, I like the trio’s work so far but they have to be more dangerous every night.
  • Pakarinen—Letestu—Kassian went 6-7 together, Kassian also going 5-5 with the Malone line. Slepyshev moved to the Letestu line in the shuffle. Letestu had three shots on goal, one at even strength.
  • Jokinen—Malone—Kassian went 5-5 together, Slepyshev was 4-0 with Malone. Slepyshev had one individual HD chance (hit the post). Corgi’s for the bottom 6F’s was reasonable but they have to start cashing goals soon. I also think Anton Slepyshev has earned a trip up the depth chart.
  • I get the PDO argument, but the Oilers also looked sleepy at the start of the game and were down one goal early (again). Need to clean that up.

In a way, this trade writes itself. Nuge for Max Pacioretty helps next year’s cap and gives the Oilers the closest player to Taylor Hall in the NHL (possibly more valuable because Pacioretty scores more goals per 82 games). When I spoke to Jen Lute Costella about  Hall, she named MP as the most similar player in terms of transportation (mostly likely to be his own carrier from own zone through goal or first assist, thereby creating a goal all by his lonesome).

I don’t think the trade happens and I don’t think it’s good value (Nuge is 24 and has four years left before free agency, Pacioretty has two years left and is 28). That said, it’s similar in this way to recent Peter Chiarelli trades in terms of value, so that may not prohibit the trade. I don’t think either team would be willing to make such a massive deal this early in the season.

KAILER YAMAMOTO

Based on verbal, sounds like the young man is going to get more than nine games in the NHL. I think it’s questionable if you’re looking to make the postseason, and curious if you’re focused on development.

If Kailer Yamamoto plays all year on 97’s wing, going 15-25-40, is that success? I like this player’s skill very much. Also wonder if the organization is still so focused on development, the possibility of wasting Connor McDavid’s final entry-level year is an acceptable cost of said development. Another month like this one and we won’t have to ask the question. It’s reasonable to assume there is urgency in Oilers management. Is there a beneficial trade out there?

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151 Responses to "Setting Sons"

  1. OriginalPouzar says:

    My goodness we could sure use a healthy Leon.

    Yamamoto may stay but I don’t think he’s earned it with play.

    I don’t think he’s been as effective as many think he has. I think people are looking for him to be good and are creating a verbal to match their desires.

    He’s quick and shifty out there and works hard – he’s not getting anything accomplished though an, as Woodguy has shown, the experiment on the first line has been a huge failure – McDavid’s offence has cratered played with Yam.

    We need Drai back as 1RW and Yano with a few games on another line to see if he can be a material player and creator.

  2. Professor Q says:

    OriginalPouzar,

    I don’t think anyone has said he’s been a World Beater Patrick Kane.

    There are two camps.

    That he’s had the most pop-&-zip, energy, quickness, effort, and feistiness of any player on the team (especially as McDavid looked lost for a few games there), has played well with McDavid when no other player has, we’re short on wingers (haha!), and damn, with all those shots we’re cheering him on for a goal.

    All while acknowledging that he should go down after Game 9.

    The other camp seems oddly adamant that he’s stunk it up and is extremely ineffective.

  3. dustrock says:

    I’m not sure Yamamoto would score 16 goals if he played the whole year with McDavid.

    If it’s that easy to play with McDavid, as some people think, why isn’t his line cashing more?

    Edmonton had trouble last year when the Lucic-RNH-Eberle line was stone cold for much of the year. When they were hot, things were much better.

    Without Eberle, that line has even less offence, and they simply do not appear dangerous on an given night. That line needs a speedster on the wing I think.

    I might be going after James Neal in Las Vegas, except how are they going to mess with their ridiculous start?

  4. flyfish1168 says:

    Watching Monohan last evening he is always at the front of the net. I’m sure most of his goals are in the hard area and no more than 10-12 feet out. Watch a couple of OVIE games and he is often at the dot and ready to shot so about 30 feet out.
    Just wondering what is the mean average shot distance of our shots. Median average distance and amount our grad A scoring chances. PDO I feel doesn’t tell us the real story. I willing to listen to good data.

  5. flyfish1168 says:

    dustrock:
    I’m not sure Yamamoto would score 16 goals if he played the whole year with McDavid.

    If it’s that easy to play with McDavid, as some people think, why isn’t his line cashing more?

    Edmonton had trouble last year when the Lucic-RNH-Eberle line was stone cold for much of the year.When they were hot, things were much better.

    Without Eberle, that line has even less offence, and they simply do not appear dangerous on an given night.That line needs a speedster on the wing I think.

    I might be going after James Neal in Las Vegas, except how are they going to mess with their ridiculous start?

    I would go after Reilly Smith. He plays RW and is a RH shot with good numbers. PC should know him well from the Bruin days.He may cost less.
    http://www.hockeydb.com/ihdb/stats/pdisplay.php?pid=115612

  6. OriginalPouzar says:

    With our center depth, we cannot have journeymen AHL players centering the third line because they’ve worked hard and have drawn some penalties. Also, Lucic needs to be moved down the lineup – the lack of speed in the top 6 is crippling:

    Maroon/McDavid/Drai
    Caggulia/Nuge/Yam
    Lucic/Strome/Kassian
    Jokinen/Letestu/Malone or Pak or JJ

  7. godot10 says:

    Yamamoto has zero goals. And you are predicting 15?

    Yamamoto is doing the other team’s work, depressing McDavid’s offense by nearly 50%.

  8. SayItAin'tSo, Gretz, SayItAin'tSo! says:

    LT writes:

    “Edmonton trails LA by 9 points after 7 games.”

    That’s true, but I also think its worth mentioning “Edmonton trails Calgary by 4 points with a game in hand after 7 games.”

    Winning the division is great but pointing to the #1 team, drawing a line and creating a narrative, misses the overall picture of the division. Other than the Kings/Vegas hot start the Pacific is a whole lot of meh and is the main reason I don’t expect any big earth shattering moves at least until after Leon gets back.

    Anaheim based on the injuries is where we expected them to be. San Jose slow out of the gate. Vancouver middling but winning here and there while the vaunted “best defensive corps in the league” is has only been able to muster a .500 record.

    The ranks are closer than they appear. This is not to excuse lackluster play from some folks (Jokinen lookin at you here), but the apocalyptic verbal is a bit of a stretch.

    My biggest concern at the moment is the special teams play. Right now the PP is not a threat and that is concerning.

    I’m also a bit peeved that in the last couple of games PP1 is taking up 3/4 the ice time and doing diddly squat with it.

    Really bad gaff aside I think the Lucic/RNH/Strome line is starting to find the range.

    Also for those knocking Kailer, out of all the wingers who’ve played with McDavid since he came in I believe Maroon, Drai and Pouliot were the only ones that found consistent success. It appears that he might be a bit of a tough player to find a groove with. Nothing wrong with that but it requires some patience.

    Get Leon back, PP1 has a new look, juggle some lines to try and jump start some fellas and I think we’ll start to roll in short order.

  9. SayItAin'tSo, Gretz, SayItAin'tSo! says:

    OriginalPouzar,

    Cagguila/Nuge/Yam will get absolutely caved in the 2nd line role. I like all three players, but that is sending out two defensive rookies with a centre who doesn’t block out the sun physically. All three are sized challenged, doesn’t bode well for board play in their own end IMO.

  10. Atc-Nate says:

    I like Yam. I want him to develop. I don’t know the best path.

    That being said, Maroon has 2 goals this year, one set up beautifully by McDavid, the other generated all by himself. He’s been with McDavid since the beginning of the season, yet…. YAMAMOTO is the goat? Seems strange, because by my count, he has one goal that is the result of being on McDavids line.

    *Shrug*

  11. trencan says:

    Well, the good thing is Andrej was back on the ice skating on Wednesday, so it seems like he’ll end up returning on the shorter side of the estimate – 6 to 9 months. Oilers definitely need a cheap goalscorer, who helps secondary scoring. Maybe this player – http://www.eliteprospects.com/player.php?player=249730 could be solution but the problem is I am not sure Nasville will let him go next summer via trade. Based on what did I see, he is not typyical sniper, but has fantastic accurate wrist shot.

  12. who says:

    The Russell haters are gonna hate him no matter what but he did nothing wrong on either goal. Sometimes his flopping bails teammates out and sometimes it doesn’t.

  13. Lowetide says:

    godot10:
    Yamamoto has zero goals.And you are predicting 15?

    No, I wrote “If Kailer Yamamoto plays all year on 97’s wing, going 15-25-40, is that success?” hoping people would read the words and understand that it was a question.

  14. Chaos Magician says:

    Does Bear get a look if he continues putting up points like he did in Seattle? 5GP 2-2-4 so far.

    I think I’d prefer him over Gryba.

  15. Professor Q says:

    Lowetide: No, I wrote “If Kailer Yamamoto plays all year on 97’s wing, going 15-25-40, is that success?” hoping people would read the words and understand that it was a question.

    I want him in Spokane and coming back next year to do better than that and win the Calder, with an extra contract year.

  16. leadfarmer says:

    There’s is only one player on this roster currently that has a reasonable potential of being a top 6 right winger. And people wonder why Yamamoto is still on the roster. Sleppy maybe has an outside chance. Strome and Kassian are third liners. Chia did this to himself. Worried what overpayment we have in store for us.

  17. Pescador says:

    OriginalPouzar:
    With our center depth, we cannot have journeymen AHL players centering the this line because they’ve worked hard and drawn some penalties.Also, Lucic needs to be moved down the lineup – the lack of speed in the top 6 is crippling:

    Maroon/McDavid/Drai
    Caggulia/Nuge/Slep
    Lucic/Strome/Kassian
    Jokinen/Letestu/Malone or Pak or Jj

    Fixed

  18. Brantford Boy says:

    Professor Q,
    +1, I see KY in the same light, with all the effort and hustle he sure gets tossed around easily, I hope he only gets the 9 games…

    OP,
    I actually like Malone’s game for the most part (aside from the bad penalty) and Lucic has not looked nearly as bad this year and the line has shown actual chemistry (more than just glimpses)…

    On another note, surprised there wasn’t talk on the broadcast about the double handed lumberjack stick Voracek cracked on the back of Talbot in the crease mix up with Larsson, my heart stopped (maybe literally) for a moment, just glad he got back up and tapped Adam for a job well done…

    November was not kind to us last year, lets light candles that we just swapped a month and November shines like a diamond… we have played ‘some’ very good teams… happy thoughts, happy thoughts… sunshine, rainbows, Christmas, playoffs.

  19. leadfarmer says:

    Chaos Magician:
    Does Bear get a look if he continues putting up points like he did in Seattle? 5GP 2-2-4 so far.

    I think I’d prefer him over Gryba.

    It’s such a steep curve from juniors to NHL for defensemen that he is better off learning in AHL this season. Maybe cup of coffee in the second half as a sign of good work

  20. OriginalPouzar says:

    Professor Q: Subscribe to our RSS FeedFollow us on Twitter

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    Yes, he’s got quickness and fiestiness and jam out there – it makes him look good when he’s not really accomplishing anything. It helps fit the verbal that he’s got chemistry with McDavid but their numbers together show the experiment has been a massive disappointment as far as production goes.

    Yamamoto has cratered McDavid’s offence, so far, worse that Kris Russell did last year.

  21. PerryK says:

    who:
    The Russell haters are gonna hate him no matter what but he did nothing wrong on either goal. Sometimes his flopping bails teammates out and sometimes it doesn’t.

    But in any case, he is out of position in the slot!

  22. OriginalPouzar says:

    Chaos Magician:
    Does Bear get a look if he continues putting up points like he did in Seattle? 5GP 2-2-4 so far.

    I think I’d prefer him over Gryba.

    No – let the man develop in Bakersfield – give him the year.

  23. Clarkenstein says:

    The first 7 games are an extension of training camp to the extent that nobody seized the opportunity to play with and compliment Connor. The fact that a kid that is barely old enough to get into the bar is the current tryout is all on Chia. This team is now his and his alone. He needs to shake this thing up and shake it up good.

  24. Pescador says:

    Post 9:
    SpokanYamoto,
    His play has filled me with optimism for next season, excellent draft pick by the Oilers.

  25. BornInAGretzkyJersey says:

    SayItAin’tSo, Gretz, SayItAin’tSo!:
    Get Leon back, PP1 has a new look,juggle some lines to try and jump start some fellas and I think we’ll start to roll in short order.

    Totally agree.

  26. who says:

    The real culprit on the winning goal was Lucic. He had position on his man at the blue line and just stopped skating. Strome let his man go as well. And that’s how you turn a 1 on 4 into a 2 on 1.
    It’s unfortunate, because I think Lucic has played better so far this year. Seems to have more jump. He is definitely faster than Maroon, who has not had a good start to the season. This was his best game by far this year.
    Some other random thoughts about our lineup.
    Jokinen looks done to me. Maybe he gets better as the season moves along. No more than a fourth line player at this point and I would prefer someone quicker and more physical for that role.
    Strome is definitely a complimentary player, not a driver, but he seems to have a good set of hands and seems to be able to think the game with other skill players.
    Nurse is playing great. Benning is still struggling. Can he be sent to the minors without waivers. Needs to get his confidence back. Nurse/Russell looks like our second pairing for now.
    I have no problem with Gryba on the third pairing for now but he needs a better partner than Auvitu.
    Yamamoto is playing pretty well but he is deferring to his linemates too much off the rush. He is forcing passes into traffic instead of taking the puck to the net himself.
    We are a slow team up front. Maroon, Lucic, Jokinen, Letestu and Malone are all below average NHL skaters. Strome and Pakarinen are average at best. That doesn’t leave a lot of quickness in yesterday’s lineup.
    Thought Slepeshev and Pakarinen had good games yesterday.

  27. OriginalPouzar says:

    PP1 has struggled mainly because Leon is the driver on the PP.

    One thing McDavid needs to work on over the next while is his PP dominance – he is simply not that great on the PP.

    Things for McDavid to work on:

    1) working through frustration (be it mauling in the neutral zone or being kicked out of faceoffs) – he gets overtly frustrated and taken off his game

    2) PP – he is not elite on the PP

    3) Faceoffs – with the new rules, he should be an upper echelon faceoff guy.

  28. OriginalPouzar says:

    who,

    Benning is on his ELC – he can got to the minors without waivers.

    I don’t see it happening.

    I thought he was much better yesterday than earlier in the season.

  29. LMHF#1 says:

    Lowetide,

    Not even close to success.

    That’s leaving so much on the table it would be amazing in a horridly depressing way.

    Is this team bound and determined to drive
    a Ferrari at 5MPH all year? I still can’t understand for the life of me the desire to slow play this group.

  30. Kinger_Oil.redux says:

    – Great post LT! LT says: ” I think it’s reasonable to suggest Edmonton lacks secondary scoring on merit: There isn’t enough skill on the roster.”

    – I’m in the “actual results matter most over time” camp. And the actual results to date have sucked, but I believe its attributable by an order of magnitude to variance, and bad luck, as the data suggests:

    1) Last year, we were 8th in scoring: with a shooting % of 9.54%. The worst shooting percentage was 7.16%. We are at 5% this year. If we finished at 5% for the year, it would b among the worst S% in the history of the NHL: that’ s just not going to happen

    2) The ability to score goals, the only difference from last year to this is Eberle, he of 16 goals in 80 games: our offence talent isn’t significantly different: except our 2nd best player has only played 3 games

    3) PDO: that isn’t a yeah but: its a real measure. 3 years ago, our PDO was league worst of 986. Its currently 950.

    4) If you want to go all small sample size: in 16 combined games Ebs and Hall have 1 goal combined. That’s terrible secondary scoring, if you want to look at the sample and actual results

    – Anyway yeah there are things to tighten up, and I’m a huge advocate of “actual results” over a season rather than parsing /60, over that time period.

    – If this team finishes the year with the top % of SAT, and therefore greatest shot differential, one of the most hitting teams (3rd now), most shots per game, then yeah, there is a massive issue

    – We arent going to score average of 2 goals a game for the season, and be 30th. We aren’t going to score 2-2-3-2-1-1- goals in regulation going forward indefintely

    – So sure were not going goals, but thats just luck, and backward looking at the actual result and projecting this as what happens going forward. I project much more scoring, it will improve significantly just keep doing what wer aree doing, and we will pot a lot more, IMO, and the math suggests this is the correct interpretation, vs what has actually happened to date

  31. russ99 says:

    Kailer is an exciting player and he plays a solid high effort game.

    But he’s gotten the McDavid push and doesn’t have the boxcars to show for it, except a few secondary assists.

    If Chia//McLellan have a failing it’s ignoring history, rarely do top picks come into the NHL and make it their first year. Now it looks like they’re pressing the issue for a second straight year to the detriment of the team and the player.

    If your roster has deficiencies that require you keeping an 18 year old past his time, and cost us goals at a time when we need them, then you need to do something about it, not wallpaper over the cracks by derailing the development and the confidence of the kids.

  32. DBO says:

    Nice post LT. I think the reasonable expectation for a McDavid winger needs to be asked. I guess would Puljujarvi do worse on McDavid wing? He has speed and size, and his shot is no worse then Yama. I would send Yamamoto down and bring up Puljujarvi, run Draisatl at centre (cause we need secondary scoring badly) and ideally pick up a RD.

    But I expect Chia will stubbornly sit back waiting for Sekera and only make a move after Christmas if needed. That may be too late, but it seems like that was the plan. Let kids fight it out, see who rises, and weather the storm until Reggie is back.

    Maroon. McDavid. Puljujarvi
    Lucic. Draisatl. Slepeshev
    Cagguila. Nuge. Strome
    jokinen. Letestu. Kassian

  33. Dino says:

    I can think of at least 3 different occasions in the last 5-6 games where Yamo had a sure goal on his stick but because of bad luck or a bad bounce he didn’t score. I think some people including the coach see that potential to score goals and want him to stay. Personally I believe if he doesn’t start capitalizing on Mcd’a ridiculous set ups by game 9 he should be sent down.

  34. thehop says:

    OriginalPouzar,

    Sorry but McDavid is not the problem on the PP.

    Tons of possession but not enough shots on net on the PP is the issue.

    Klefbom can’t hit the net from the point this year.. why? I have no idea. He was cash last year.

  35. fifthcartel says:

    Keeping Yamamoto on the roster seems like a poor choice. He seems okay, but leaving him in the WHL for another year feels like the much better path.

    I agree with Woodguy, KY seems to have a lot of rookieness, and now isn’t the time to put a rookie with 97, especially with the lack of secondary scoring.

    My guess is there’s a chance KY goes out when Draisaitl comes back. I can’t see McLellan splittng up 97 and 29 when they’re 2-5.

  36. Kinger_Oil.redux says:

    russ99,

    – Kailers play to date has been entirely what was to be expected: He was’t going to to have a 40% shooting percentage, he was going to get pushed around a little more, and have less space

    – His 0% shooting percentage is hopefully going to help the team send him back after 9 games. It would be a shame IMO to keep him up here, when at best his current play is replaceable by a Sleppy, Cags, or whoever. I said as much in pre-season: he won’t be a difference maker this year

    – Now of course had he potted some goals, we’d be all”dude is amazing, what a steal”

  37. thehop says:

    DBO:
    Nice post LT. I think the reasonable expectation for a McDavid winger needs to be asked. I guess would Puljujarvi do worse on McDavid wing? He has speed and size, and his shot is no worse then Yama.I would send Yamamoto down and bring up Puljujarvi, run Draisatl at centre (cause we need secondary scoring badly) and ideally pick up a RD.

    But I expect Chia will stubbornly sit back waiting for Sekera and only make a move after Christmas if needed. That may be too late, but it seems like that was the plan. Let kids fight it out, see who rises, and weather the storm until Reggie is back.

    Maroon. McDavid. Puljujarvi
    Lucic. Draisatl. Slepeshev
    Cagguila. Nuge. Strome
    jokinen. Letestu. Kassian

    That is a very nice group of forwards on paper. I’d love to see how that plays out in real life.

  38. leeinvan says:

    Don’t see the point of burning a year of Yamo’s contract, the team made that mistake last year.
    If he is the reason the team wins or loses then we are in trouble.
    The team needs scoring from players who are paid to score, the top six looks like a below average group and that includes McDavid.
    Stamkos has as many points as the entire Oiler team, shame on them.
    PC has traded away almost every asset this team has to trade and has come out second best for the most part.
    When the press gets excited because the top line winger gets his second goal this season you know the team is in trouble.
    Somehow PC has to find wingers that can score goals, and Leon is not a winger , on any other team he is a center. He is on the wing because the team doesn’t have any other wingers that can score. Lucic is becoming a very expensive anchor and no one on the farm is saving this team. The best thing that can happen to RNH is getting traded to a team that has wingers that score.

  39. Nuclear leak says:

    Drai wasn’t exactly tearing it up in the AHL when they called him back up, Jesse looked better in preseason with Mcdavid then Yamamoto has at any point.

    Yamamoto hasn’t done nearly enough, playing on the top line you cash your chances and create chances your linemates cash. Does anyone truly believe he’s ready to contribute for a deep post season run? Send him back and bring in some outside help.

    If Jokinen doesn’t find some giddy up in two weeks he’ll be giddying out.

    Nuge/Gryba – Max/Davidson? Sunday dreams.

  40. Seismic Source says:

    Love the idea of Max P coming here but if this season is lost, which it could very well be soon, we’d be paying a premium for one year of him.

    There should be harder questions coming internally first, like the timeline of a Lucic buyout.

  41. leeinvan says:

    Kinger_Oil.redux,

    Yes but Hall and Eberle have 11 points between them what pair of Oiler forwards have 11 points, saying the team doesn’t miss them is wrong. Having Hall on this team makes a big difference, the team is slow and Hall is fast. It’s a league where speed is king the Oilers are looking very average.

  42. godot10 says:

    Lowetide: No, I wrote “If Kailer Yamamoto plays all year on 97’s wing, going 15-25-40, is that success?” hoping people would read the words and understand that it was a question.

    10% of the season is gone. You are expecting him to score at a near 20 goal 50 point pace now, as a rookie to achieve your targets, beyond what most lottery forwards picks do in their first year.

    His NHLE are nowhere near 20 goals and 50 point pace. He won’t be playing with McDavid all year. Woodguy has show he is severely depressing McDavid’s offensive performance in terms of results, boxcars (relative to everyone else McDavid has played with).

    Rose-coloured glasses, you have, apparently,. Cloudy are mine.

  43. godot10 says:

    leadfarmer:
    There’s is only one player on this roster currently that has a reasonablepotential of being a top 6 right winger.And people wonder why Yamamoto is still on the roster.Sleppy maybe has an outside chance.Strome and Kassian are third liners.Chia did this to himself.Worried what overpayment we have in store for us.

    McDavid, Draisaitl, Nugent-Hopkins, Maroon, Slepyshev, and well Lucic. Find two lines in there.

  44. Kinger_Oil.redux says:

    leeinvan:
    Kinger_Oil.redux,

    Yes but Hall and Eberle have 11 points between them what pair of Oiler forwards have 11 points, saying the team doesn’t miss them is wrong. Having Hall on this team makes a big difference, the team is slow and Hall is fast. It’s a league where speed is king the Oilers are looking very average.

    – Yeah my post wasn’t about missing Ebs and Hall per se, merely pointing out small samples of anemic goal scoring. We have only 14 games vs their 16 for instance to compare.

    – On a /60 Drai and Marron are similar/better, as are Maroon and Lucic

    – My point was I believe that its simple math and percentages not the quality of our players that explains the dearth of scoring.

    – We have been bad at scoring. Our players aren’t bad at scoring.

    – I bet I’m right, and that we aren’t the outlier in NHL history, that will have a PDO of much higher than 950, a 5% shooting percentage will go to 8 or 9, and our shooting differential will translate into more wins.

  45. HT Joe says:

    Lowetide: No, I wrote “If Kailer Yamamoto plays all year on 97’s wing, going 15-25-40, is that success?” hoping people would read the words and understand that it was a question.

    If Yamamoto plays all year on 97’s wing and scores 15 goals, I would not consider that a success. Even if it means that Drai plays second line Centre all season, it’s still not worth it. I would be shocked if either Kassian or Slepy would score less than 15 goals given that same opportunity. Send Yamamoto down and let him develop without burning an ELC.

    *EDIT* Or, hell, give Strome a chance. You know… the guy Chia brought in to replace Eberle’s offence or something…

  46. OriginalPouzar says:

    thehop:
    OriginalPouzar,

    Sorry but McDavid is not the problem on the PP.

    Tons of possession but not enough shots on net on the PP is the issue.

    Klefbom can’t hit the net from the point this year.. why? I have no idea. He was cash last year.

    He’s not a “problem” but he’s not a great PP performer – his career numbers show that and continue to.

    That’s OK – he will be elite on the PP in time I am sure but he simply is not right now.

    We miss Drai on that 1PP and his chemistry with McDavid and Lucic on the PP.

  47. JimmyV1965 says:

    I think they need to load up the first two lines. That means playing RNH with either Drai or McDavid. RNH is a very good player and our third best forward. However, I think it’s pretty clear he needs an elite winger to be effective. Ideally he should be leading the third line and maybe that’s something they try later in the year, but at this point the team doesn’t have enough wingers for the first two lines, let alone a third line. Strome and Jokinnen bring zero to the table. Hopefully that changes.

  48. OriginalPouzar says:

    With respect to Kailer and being sent back, we could have a bit more time as well.

    The threshold is 10 games played, not 10 games on the roster so, when Drake and Drai are healthy, although we need to move one player out when they both come off IR, we could keep Yamamoto on the roster (Malone can go back to the AHL) and not play him every game giving a bit more time to suss things out and maybe let JP find some confidence.

    I think JP will have middling offensive numbers in the AHL due to a lack of offensive talent to play with (Josh Currie is his center for crying out loud). He will likely score at a greater rate in the NHL.

    Even Drai had poor numbers in the AHL prior to his recall (2 points in 6 games).

  49. Lowetide says:

    godot10: 10% of the season is gone.You are expecting him to score at a near 20 goal 50 point pace now, as a rookie to achieve your targets, beyond what most lottery forwards picks do in their first year.

    His NHLE are nowhere near 20 goals and 50 point pace.He won’t be playing with McDavid all year.Woodguy has show he is severely depressing McDavid’s offensive performance in terms of results, boxcars (relative to everyone else McDavid has played with).

    Rose-coloured glasses, you have, apparently,.Cloudy are mine.

    Good Christ. AT NO TIME DID I PREDICT YAMAMOTO TO SCORE 15-25-40. Honestly, this is such a ridiculous conversation. I’m done with it, but would thank you not to put words in my mouth. Very irritating.

  50. Chachi says:

    Lowetide: No, I wrote “If Kailer Yamamoto plays all year on 97’s wing, going 15-25-40, is that success?” hoping people would read the words and understand that it was a question.

    Since some people don’t seem to understand what a question is I’ll try to answer the very simple one you asked.

    If Yamamoto goes 15-25-40 for the season that is success for the player, but a loss for the team, because he would need to play on the PP and with McDavid to get those points and that is not enough production for the first line. He should not be in the NHL past 9 games. He very nearly got killed on a borderline hit near the bench yesterday. Get him his 9 games if they feel he has earned it, but then get him back to Spokane.

  51. Woodguy v2.0 says:

    OriginalPouzar:
    who,

    Benning is on his ELC – he can got to the minors without waivers.

    I don’t see it happening.

    I thought he was much better yesterday than earlier in the season.

    That’s not correct.

    Benning is waiver eligible and would have to clear waivers.

    While most ELC players are not waiver eligible, some are.

    There is an age and games played formula in section 13 of the CBA that spells it out:

    Here’s the formula for skaters: (goalies are different)

    Age Season GP
    18 5 160
    19 4 160
    20 3 160
    21 3 80
    22 3 70
    23 3 60
    24 2 60
    25+ 1 1

    Age here is the age at which they signed their ELC.

    So if a player signs his ELC at 18 he becomes waiver eligible 5 seasons after signing his ELC OR 160 NHL games, whichever comes first.

    Benning signed his ELC at age 22, so he became waiver eligible after he played his 70th game.

    He played 62 regular season games and 12 playoff last year so he entered this season being waiver eligible.

    Oilers who are not waiver eligible today: McDavid, Slepeshev, Yamamoto, Nurse.

  52. OriginalPouzar says:

    I’m having trouble with PuckIQ – for some reason I can’t get this year’s results – only last years.

    http://puckiq.com/teams/EDM

    I also can’t really use Natural Stat Trick – its sooooooo complicated, at least for me.

  53. Chachi says:

    Lowetide: Good Christ. AT NO TIME DID I PREDICT YAMAMOTO TO SCORE 15-25-40.Honestly, this is such a ridiculous conversation. I’m done with it, but would thank you not to put words in my mouth. Very irritating.

    Anyone with a working knowledge of the English language should be able to understand what you wrote.

  54. OriginalPouzar says:

    Woodguy v2.0: That’s not correct.

    Benning is waiver eligible and would have to clear waivers.

    While most ELC players are not waiver eligible, some are.

    There is an age and games played formula in section 13 of the CBA that spells it out:

    Here’s the formula for skaters: (goalies are different)

    Age Season GP
    185 160
    194 160
    203 160
    213 80
    223 70
    233 60
    242 60
    25+ 1 1

    Age here is the age at which they signed their ELC.

    So if a player signs his ELC at 18 he becomes waiver eligible 5 seasons after signing his ELC OR 160 NHL games, whichever comes first.

    Benning signed his ELC at age 22, so he became waiver eligible after he played his 70th game.

    He played 62 regular season games and 12 playoff last year so he entered this season being waiver eligible.

    Oilers who are not waiver eligible today: McDavid, Slepeshev, Yamamoto, Nurse.

    Yes, I knew that waiver eligibility was function of age when the ELC was signed and pro games played but I didn’t appreciate that the number of games was so low for a person that signed at 22. I made an assumption and was wrong.

    That you for the clarification and I apologize for posting incorrect information.

  55. TheVengeFulOne says:

    Kinda the same debate with Moto that we had with Eberle, Petry, Gagner,etc,etc. Not good enough to play where he is, but probably can’t be moved with 0 reprucussions. This team was handcuffed from the start.

    I have no doubt they are better than this, but I don’t know if they are good enough to outplay this start and make the playoffs. Especially once the rest of this month is written.

  56. Woodguy v2.0 says:

    Nurse—Gryba went 14-7 and that included 7-1 in scoring chances together. The duo played more than Russell—Benning, making them the de fact second pairing on the afternoon. Went 5-5 against the Couturier line and 5-1 against the Laughton trio. Gryba gets beaten wide and is playing too much for 7D, but math has never loved him more.

    They were 2nd pair by assignment as well I think, but its close:

    TOI vs Couts (1st line)
    Klefbom 8:11
    Larsson 7:49
    Nurse 4:25
    Gryba 4:09
    Benning 3:07
    Russell: 2:34

    TOI vs Fippula (2nd line)
    Larsson 4:31
    Russell 4:07
    Klefbom 3:22
    Benning 3:28
    Gryba 2:52
    Nurse 2:51

    TOI vs Konecny (3rd line – soft scoring)
    Klefbom 5:07
    Larsson 4:37
    Benning 2:40
    Nurse 2:25
    Gryba 2:12
    Russell 1:57

    TOI vs Laughton (4th line)
    Klefbom 5:25
    Larsson 5:19
    Nurse 4:37
    Gryba 4:16
    Russell 4:13
    Benning 3:39

    McLellan definitely running 77-6 as a heavy minute top pair, unlike last year where he ran a top 4.

    5v5 TOI last night:
    Larsson 21:40
    Klefbom 21:31
    Nurse 15:19
    Gryba 14:31
    Russell 12:22
    Benning 11:54

  57. Woodguy v2.0 says:

    OriginalPouzar,

    No need to apologize.

    We’re all fellow travelers.

  58. sliderule says:

    If the power play doesn’t pick up I see Bear coming up

    Hide him in third pair and use him on power play.

    This player will ignite the power play

  59. PokeCheck says:

    With Subban hurt, any chance that Brossoit + Khaira gets a Miller trade done?

  60. OriginalPouzar says:

    sliderule:
    If the power play doesn’t pick up I see Bear coming up

    Hide him in third pair and use him on power play.

    This player will ignite the power play

    I sure as hell hope not – he made a great play on the PP last night (cross-ice pass to Rattie who scored – terrible tending) but lets not rush yet another first year pro prospect and let the man continue to develop in the proper league.

    The issue with PP1 is not Klefbom, its the lack of Drai.

    Lets not forget the fan-base bemoaning the PP at the beginning of last year – calling for the firing of Jay Woodcroft – the same PP was the league’s best for half the season and finished 5th overall.

    Let Bear develop!!!!

  61. OriginalPouzar says:

    Some due name Mitchell wrote an article this morning about the need for value contract which, to me, provides the reasoning why Kailer needs to go back to Spokane:

    https://theathletic.com/134654/2017/10/22/the-oilers-decade-of-darkness/

    To me, the need for value contracts is the prime example of why Yamamoto needs to go back to junior.

    Sure, he “looks good” on the 1st line recently but that’s because he’s feisty, quick, shifty and is working his butt off. Great attributes with value, however, he is not producing, he is losing battles and early results show he is cratering McDavid’s ES offence worse that Russell did last year.

    There is some value on burning a year of the ELC which could lead to the 2nd contract being cheaper (although the bump would be a year earlier), however, in this case, I want three material years out of Kailer’s ELC and he hasn’t shown enough this year.

  62. OriginalPouzar says:

    PokeCheck:
    With Subban hurt, any chance that Brossoit + Khaira gets a Miller trade done?

    Nick Ellis just had a beauty weekend for Bakersfield.

  63. Lowetide says:

    The Athletic article (pay wall) for today is about value contracts and PC’s sense of urgency

    https://theathletic.com/134654/2017/10/22/the-oilers-decade-of-darkness/

  64. OriginalPouzar says:

    Safin with a 1st period goal so far this morning.

  65. LadiesloveSmid says:

    Maroon-McD-Pulju had some nasty numbers, just saying.

    In need of a shake-up and Slepy promotion

  66. TheVengeFulOne says:

    Kinger_Oil.redux:
    – Great post LT!LT says: ” I think it’s reasonable to suggest Edmonton lacks secondary scoring on merit: There isn’t enough skill on the roster.”

    – I’m in the “actual results matter most over time” camp.And the actual results to date have sucked, but I believe its attributable by an order of magnitude to variance, and bad luck, as the data suggests:

    1) Last year, we were 8th in scoring: with a shooting % of 9.54%.The worst shooting percentage was 7.16%.We are at 5% this year.If we finished at 5% for the year, it would b among the worst S% in the history of the NHL: that’ s just not going to happen

    2) The ability to score goals, the only difference from last year to this is Eberle, he of 16 goals in 80 games: our offence talent isn’t significantly different: except our 2nd best player has only played 3 games

    3) PDO: that isn’t a yeah but: its a real measure.3 years ago, our PDO was league worst of 986.Its currently 950.

    4) If you want to go all small sample size: in 16 combined games Ebs and Hall have 1 goal combined.That’s terrible secondary scoring, if you want to look at the sample and actual results

    – Anyway yeah there are things to tighten up, and I’m a huge advocate of “actual results” over a season rather than parsing /60, over that time period.

    – If this team finishes the year with the top % of SAT, and therefore greatest shot differential, one of the most hitting teams (3rd now), most shots per game, then yeah, there is a massive issue

    – We arent going to score average of 2 goals a game for the season, and be 30th.We aren’t going toscore 2-2-3-2-1-1- goals in regulation going forward indefintely

    – So sure were not going goals, but thats just luck, and backward looking at the actual result and projecting this as what happens going forward. I project much more scoring, it will improve significantly just keep doing what wer aree doing, and we will pot a lot more, IMO, and the math suggests this is the correct interpretation, vs what has actually happened to date

    Still don’t think PDO is a measure of luck at least not mostly. Got into a battle royale with Gmoney and WG years back. If it were, it would fall into a confidence interval.

  67. Kinger_Oil.redux says:

    TheVengeFulOne: Still don’t think PDO is a measure of luck at least not mostly. Got into a battle royale with Gmoney and WG years back. If it were, it would fall into a confidence interval.

    – PDO as a proxy for “luck” I agree isn’t correct. However the combination of our goalering, and inability to score goals is not sustainable, unless you believe this is the worst team that has been assembled in the history of the NHL, and will have a PDO 20 points below our team of 2 years ago

    – And I don’t believe that it is because we have players who are bad at scorering, their shots just aren’t going in. And our goalies have sucked a lot, but are getting more normalized on 5×5 SV%…

  68. LadiesloveSmid says:

    Did Svoboda come to the rookie camp this year? I don’t think EDM owns his rights anymore, but putting together a good season in the top Czech league

  69. PerryK says:

    DBO:
    Nice post LT. I think the reasonable expectation for a McDavid winger needs to be asked. I guess would Puljujarvi do worse on McDavid wing? He has speed and size, and his shot is no worse then Yama.I would send Yamamoto down and bring up Puljujarvi, run Draisatl at centre (cause we need secondary scoring badly) and ideally pick up a RD.

    But I expect Chia will stubbornly sit back waiting for Sekera and only make a move after Christmas if needed. That may be too late, but it seems like that was the plan. Let kids fight it out, see who rises, and weather the storm until Reggie is back.

    Maroon. McDavid. Puljujarvi
    Lucic. Draisatl. Slepeshev
    Cagguila. Nuge. Strome
    jokinen. Letestu. Kassian

    The only lineup change that I would request is Puljujarvi with Nuge, Slepyshev with McDavid and Strome with Draisaitl.

  70. Bag of Pucks says:

    LT asks, “ls Leon enough?”

    Yes, if at 2C

    If 1LW, no.

    5-12 for the 2L and they continue to have these “also in photo” moments.

    GM sees Leon at C. HC continues to treat him like early career Pavelski. Fairly significant disconnect in the brain trust?

  71. Woodguy v2.0 says:

    SayItAin'tSo, Gretz, SayItAin'tSo!,

    Also for those knocking Kailer, out of all the wingers who’ve played with McDavid since he came in I believe Maroon, Drai and Pouliot were the only ones that found consistent success. It appears that he might be a bit of a tough player to find a groove with. Nothing wrong with that but it requires some patience.

    Here’s a list of every forward McDavid has played with in the first two years of his career.

    Minimum TOI together is 50 min (to get Yamamoto in there for this year’s data)

    Teammate TOI w/ 97
     Patrick Maroon 720.57
     Leon Draisaitl 660.50
     Milan Lucic 464.15
     Jordan Eberle 418.03
     Jesse Puljujarvi 84.27
     Drake Caggiula 67.30
    Kailer Yamamoto 57.42
     Benoit Pouliot 41.05

    Here’s how often the Oilers score when McDavid is with that player:

    Teammate GF/60
     Patrick Maroon 3.7
     Leon Draisaitl 3.7
     Milan Lucic 2.8
     Jordan Eberle 2.9
     Jesse Puljujarvi 5.7
     Drake Caggiula 5.3
    Kailer Yamamoto 2.1
     Benoit Pouliot 0

    There can be some funny artifacts in the data.

    Lucic was a huge drag on GF/60 with McDavid.

    Overall Oilers score 2.8 when they’re together and 3.8 when McDavid is on the ice and Lucic is not.

    It dragged down Eberle’s GF/60 with McDavid last year as they were mostly with Lucic.

    Also,

    Here’s some different info from this year:

    McDavid’s pts/60 5v5 with various players:

    With Total Points/60
    Leon Draisaitl 4.52
    Patrick Maroon 2.52
    Kailer Yamamoto 1.04

    I know its only 57 minutes over 4 games, but 97 scoring below a 4th line rate sets off bells and whistles for me.

    WheatnOil has soundly berated me for posting the above on twitter given the sample size and PDO, but its all the data we have and early returns are not good.

    Yes they are getting a ton of shots, McDavid *always* gets a ton of shots with everyone (except Lucic)

    The issue is scoring and I’m not sure Yamamoto can score at rate needed to play in the NHL yet.

    I’m sure Yamamoto will be a NHL for a long time, but I think the McDavid winger experiment is probably over for this year.

    Drai probably comes back Tuesday and if he does I think McLellan puts him at 1RW as he’ll want 97 hitting on all cylinders.

  72. GMB3 says:

    godot10: 10% of the season is gone.You are expecting him to score at a near 20 goal 50 point pace now, as a rookie to achieve your targets, beyond what most lottery forwards picks do in their first year.

    His NHLE are nowhere near 20 goals and 50 point pace.He won’t be playing with McDavid all year.Woodguy has show he is severely depressing McDavid’s offensive performance in terms of results, boxcars (relative to everyone else McDavid has played with).

    Rose-coloured glasses, you have, apparently,.Cloudy are mine.

    I see people skills aren’t your strong suit. This post is laughable and sad to read

  73. Ice Sage says:

    Last year’s Oilers looking more like the 13-14 Avalanche by the day – a mirage of good health, weak rivals, re-balancing and career years for 3 – 4 players.
    Scoring is the issue: primary, PP and secondary. Opponents with mobile D (they all have!) can neutralize McDavid now and that’s all it takes. There are lots of passengers on this team and I don’t have confidence that McLellan / Chia have any disruptive options. Don’t tawk to me about Playoffs?!?!

  74. OriginalPouzar says:

    LadiesloveSmid:
    Did Svoboda come to the rookie camp this year? I don’t think EDM owns his rights anymore, but putting together a good season in the top Czech league

    I don’t believe he did and, no, we were unable to sign him so he is now a UFA.

    Not sure if we tried to sign him or not – I haven’t been able to find any verbal on what his ridiculous numbers from the past few years actually mean in the league he played in.

    Fascinating prospect to me – I do wonder if he’s a potential UFA signing at some point although our goaltending depth organizationally is great right now.

  75. Lowetide says:

    Svoboda was not on the rookie camp roster

    http://lowetide.ca/2017/09/05/rookie-camp-roster-released/

    but he was at Orientation camp

    http://lowetide.ca/2017/07/01/stop-that-train/

  76. leadfarmer says:

    Ice Sage:
    Last year’s Oilers looking more like the 13-14 Avalanche by the day – a mirage of good health, weak rivals, re-balancing and career years for 3 – 4 players.
    Scoring is the issue: primary, PP and secondary.Opponents with mobile D (they all have!) can neutralize McDavid now and that’s all it takes.There are lots of passengers on this team and I don’t have confidence that McLellan / Chia have any disruptive options. Don’t tawk to me about Playoffs?!?!

    In one year every team fixed their defense with high quality mobile defensemen?

  77. leadfarmer says:

    If Pacioretty is available for Nuge you do it. You do it yesterday

  78. Oil2Oilers says:

    I am very happy with Yamamoto but I would still send him down after 9 games, for the sake of his own development and the long term financial benefit. He could be safely penciled into the top 6 for three years on a rookie contract.

    To replace the loss of skill and speed I would try and pickup Hemsky from the Habs as a one year stop gap. It sounds like he could be had for free right about now. Also bring up Puljujarvi, progressing or not in the AHL the Oilers need his speed. They have become a slow team in a fast league.

    Strome has not met my low expectations, I would be happy if he was traded for a RHD that can move the puck. Strome + Fane (50% regain) + pick for Colin Miller though I doubt the red hot Knights are looking for a trade

  79. who says:

    Woodguy v2.0: That’s not correct.

    Benning is waiver eligible and would have to clear waivers.

    While most ELC players are not waiver eligible, some are.

    There is an age and games played formula in section 13 of the CBA that spells it out:

    Here’s the formula for skaters: (goalies are different)

    Age Season GP
    185 160
    194 160
    203 160
    213 80
    223 70
    233 60
    242 60
    25+ 1 1

    Age here is the age at which they signed their ELC.

    So if a player signs his ELC at 18 he becomes waiver eligible 5 seasons after signing his ELC OR 160 NHL games, whichever comes first.

    Benning signed his ELC at age 22, so he became waiver eligible after he played his 70th game.

    He played 62 regular season games and 12 playoff last year so he entered this season being waiver eligible.

    Oilers who are not waiver eligible today: McDavid, Slepeshev, Yamamoto, Nurse.

    Well then, I guess Benning is going to have to figure it out on the third pairing. Problem is, who does he play with?
    Assuming Nurse/Russell is the second pairing, that would leave Gryba and Auvitu as the current possibilities.
    Playing with Gryba requires Benning to play his off side, because I don’t think Gryba can. Not ideal for a guy who’s struggling.
    Playing with Auvitu would be a tire fire, in my opinion.
    Think the oilers may need to have a look at Simpson, or find an NHL lefty dman on a short term contract.

  80. Dicky94 says:

    leadfarmer,

    I’d trade Maroon plus something other than Nuge. Don’t think the oil want to trade Nuge.

  81. leadfarmer says:

    Dicky94,

    There is no way Maroon gets the conversation started. Even if he had a contract which he doesn’t. I don’t think Nuge one for one would have their interest.

  82. Pouzar says:

    leadfarmer:
    If Pacioretty is available for Nuge you do it.You do it yesterday

    He isn’t. It was a suggestion. Like the thousands we read on hockey forums everyday. Not ranting at you but it’s my biggest pet peeve on forums. Let’s invent a trade that is never going to happen and talk about it. No thx…I have paint to watch dry. /end rant

  83. Professor Q says:

    PokeCheck:
    With Subban hurt, any chance that Brossoit + Khaira gets a Miller trade done?

    Will Vegas just stack on the goaltenders?

  84. OriginalPouzar says:

    Oil2Oilers:
    I am very happy with Yamamoto but I would still send him down after 9 games, for the sake of his own development and the long term financial benefit. He could be safely penciled into the top 6 for three years on a rookie contract.

    To replace the loss of skill and speed I would try and pickup Hemsky from the Habs as a one year stop gap. It sounds like he could be had for free right about now. Also bring up Puljujarvi, progressing or not in the AHL the Oilers need his speed. They have become a slow team in a fast league.

    Strome has not met my low expectations, I would be happy if he was traded for a RHD that can move the puck. Strome + Fane (50% regain) + pick for Colin Miller though I doubt the red hot Knights are looking for a trade

    I agree with Yamamoto and sending him down and the reasoning.

    I was an advocate of signing Hemsky in the off-season thinking he’d be good veteran RW depth, however, from Hab fans, he’s got almost nothing left and has been taking quite a few PIMs (the slash the hands penalties). I’m not sure if he’d be able to help but it wouldn’t cost much of anything (except a contract spot if we aren’t sending one back to the Habs).

    JP hasn’t even been getting shots on net the last few games but he’s playing with Josh Currie as his center. I’d like to allow him to continue to develop in the AHL but I’m wondering if the lack of offensive linemates is actually a detriment to him.

    Drai has 2 points in 6 games prior to his call-up and then never looked back.

    Maybe Jesse will be able to produce at the NHL level despite not producing at the AHL level just due to teamates – that does happen.

  85. OriginalPouzar says:

    who: Well then, I guess Benning is going to have to figure it out on the third pairing. Problem is, who does he play with?
    Assuming Nurse/Russell is the second pairing, that would leave Gryba and Auvitu as the current possibilities.
    Playing with Gryba requires Benning to play his off side, because I don’t think Gryba can. Not ideal for a guy who’s struggling.
    Playing with Auvitu would be a tire fire, in my opinion.
    Think the oilers may need to have a look at Simpson, or find an NHL lefty dman on a short term contract.

    I have had this issue over the last few days as well – how do we get Benning in the lineup?

    I think Darnell needs to be given 2nd pairing minutes (and he really got those last night with Gryba).

    I pair Darnell and Benning together as the 2nd pairing an have Russell as 3LD with Gryba.

    I really think that might work given Darnell’s steps forward.

    Yes, making our 3rd pair from last year our 2nd pair this year doesn’t reak of steps forward for the team but Getzlaf really screwed us.

  86. Lewis Grant says:

    If Yamamoto plays all year on 97’s wing and scores 15 goals, I would not consider that a success. Even if it means that Drai plays second line Centre all season, it’s still not worth it. I would be shocked if either Kassian or Slepy would score less than 15 goals given that same opportunity. Send Yamamoto down and let him develop without burning an ELC.

    I agree. You simply don’t win (especially in the long run) by playing 18-year-olds who weren’t taken in the top 2 or so of the draft.

  87. SayItAin'tSo, Gretz, SayItAin'tSo! says:

    Woodguy v2.0,

    Thanks for this! Excellent info right here.

    So a couple of thoughts.

    1) Looch and Eberle got an awful lot of rope with CmD last year before that line was nixed. Now I posted it a week or so back but after starting last year hot Ebs took until mid January to hit the 10 goal mark so I would be guessing that the majority of his crooked numbers were from CmD’s rookie year because Eberle was NOT an effective offensive threat for large swaths (with or without CmD) last year.

    If that’s the case we have a sample size from what you posted above that has Maroon and Drai sitting pretty for long time, while JP and Poo have decent numbers but in very limited time. I think this strengthens my point that CmD is a tough player to play with as a winger. That’s not any sort of slag but he moves so fast and can control the puck so easily it’s tough for guys to get used to that.

    2) Given the above, my question is at what point do we assign Kailer to one of those buckets?

    My eye test says he has been getting better every game so far save for yesterday’s 3rd where the checking ground everyone down. In the previous Chicago and Carolina games he put up something like 16 shots, a few of which were the 5-bell variety and had a couple of posts.

    As per Kinger’s long post above I don’t think its reasonable to expect Kailer to shoot 0% for a season nor for the team to have a shooting percentage that plumbs the worst of all time. Now that isn’t to say Kailer is going to break out and score a hatty next game but given the tiny tiny sample size and the overall lack of offensive production from Maroon, I’m not as worried that McD’s offense has dipped because of Kailer.

    I think, like everyone on the goal scorers side right now, CmD is in a bit of an offensive funk. It sucks but once things start to normalize across the team re: shooting percentage Kailer’s numbers will start ticking up as well.

  88. Chachi says:

    Pouzar: He isn’t. It was a suggestion. Like the thousands we read on hockey forums everyday.
    Not ranting at you but it’s my biggest pet peeve on forums. Let’s invent a trade that is never
    going to happen talk about it. No thx…I have paint to watch dry. /end rant

    Totally agree with this. Think St. Louis would do Pietrangelo for Nuge?

  89. leadfarmer says:

    Pouzar: He isn’t. It was a suggestion. Like the thousands we read on hockey forums everyday.
    Not ranting at you but it’s my biggest pet peeve on forums. Let’s invent a trade that is never
    going to happen talk about it. No thx…I have paint to watch dry. /end rant

    Well if we want playoffs then Chia will have to invent a trade. Salary cap depending on where it lands may mean Nuge has to go. I don’t get what the deal is. Don’t like the post, skip it or are you going to complain about people being arm chair GMs next

  90. VOR says:

    Shooting is a widely misunderstood skill. There is a mental component that is damn hard to measure. But everyone knows it exists.

    Stick with me for a minute as I try to broaden the discussion of the Oilers shooting woes a bit. What heat maps and expected goal metrics are telling us is that the Oilers are getting to the right places but aren’t converting. There are three possible reasons for this.

    The first is bad luck. Even great shooters like Mike Bossy (and there was a guy who could pick a corner or go bar down) can go stone cold for games at a time. The Ovechkin’s, Bossy’s, Hull’s and Kurri’s just keep shooting and eventually the puck starts going in again.

    The second explanation is the goaltenders you are facing are playing out of their minds. Their skill is in a real sense your bad luck. The converse is also possible. You, as a team are shooting poorly. Your bad shooting is the other teams’ goaltenders luck. This is the shooting into the crest argument.

    There are other ways you could be screwing up your shooting, like lousy shot selection. The thing is the shot models like Manny’s largely correct for all these ways of shooting badly to get an expected goal number. So it would appear you are just left with luck or a true lack of skill or some combination of both to explain the Oilers woes.

    But there is a third explanation. That is team effects.

    To understand what I’m getting at imagine you add exactly one player to the Oilers. His thing is he is an open ice scorer. A shooter so talented he doesn’t need a beautiful pass, a quick release, a screen, traffic in front, or any other assistance to score. He just needs the puck on his stick.

    Now assume not only can he score from anywhere he can make ygoaltenders look really bad. This is because he has a hundred different releases and some of them produce the hockey equivalent of a knuckleball. As a goaltender you know you may end up looking like a dying fish as the puck flutters by you. One last thing, the son of a bitch loves getting inside your head and messing with you. He takes great pleasure in outsmarting goaltenders and making them look stupid.

    So we drop this guy into the Oilers lineup and we watch what happens to the team’s shooting percentage. At first the only team shooting% will be from his 15 or 16%. But then his line mates shooting percentage will start to rise as will the numbers for the D who play with him. His presence on the ice unsettles goaltenders. His line mates benefit. But then the entire team begins to score. This is because a goaltender who has lost his focus against one line will find it difficult to get it back against the rest of the team. Thus team effects. (Glenn Anderson had this exact effect on goaltenders, for a totally different reason but he could really get in goalies heads).

    This is why if the Oilers start scoring here and there it might well become an explosion. So much of hockey is in the players’ heads. Scoring slumps are contagious and so are scoring streaks.

    Thus the third explanation for the poor scoring outcomes against expected is that the team is in a collective funk. In a game measured in millimetres and milliseconds that funk means very high danger scoring chances fail in subtle ways that elude the models. Opposition goaltenders look like supermen and the funk deepens. The feedback loop drives the Oilers shooters deeper and deeper into the pit of despair.

    The obvious solution is to conduct my mental experiment from above in the real world. Go get an open ice scorer. One goalies hate. One who takes real pleasure in making opposition goaltenders look bad. Now you are going to say, “but such hypothetical creatures don’t exist in the real world”. But of course they do. One is even available.

    I assume Peter is on the phone every few days to George going, “what will it take.” I am guessing the price is too high right now especially for a rental. But the longer the scoring slump continues the more reasonable the price looks. Perhaps their are other cheaper and more long term solutions out there. The Oilers must be looking.

    I am not saying the situation won’t correct itself. I am sure it will. Kinger Oil and Woodguy make great arguments why it logically must. Though Woodguy has certainly explained why there may be lingering issues even after reversion occurs. However, I can certainly understand the temptation to seed the turnaround with the addition of a proven scorer. Particularly one who plays chess with goalies.

  91. leadfarmer says:

    Chachi: Totally agree with this. Think St. Louis would do Pietrangelo for Nuge?

    Friedman is talking about Oil trading for patches. This is where that trade is coming from and why this is being discussed today. None of us made up that trade scenario and no one has mentioned Pietrangelo

  92. who says:

    OriginalPouzar: I have had this issue over the last few days as well – how do we get Benning in the lineup?

    I think Darnell needs to be given 2nd pairing minutes (and he really got those last night with Gryba).

    I pair Darnell and Benning together as the 2nd pairing an have Russell as 3LD with Gryba.

    I really think that might work given Darnell’s steps forward.

    Yes, making our 3rd pair from last year our 2nd pair this year doesn’t reak of steps forward for the team but Getzlaf really screwed us.

    Yeah I’ve seen you post these pairings before.
    Problem is you are giving second pairing minutes to 2 sophmore s, with one of them struggling. And you are cutting the minutes of one of our best dmen. At least he has been so far.
    That does not seem like a recipe for success.

  93. thehop says:

    LadiesloveSmid:
    Maroon-McD-Pulju had some nasty numbers, just saying.

    In need of a shake-up and Slepy promotion

    100 times yes please..

    Also,

    #freeslepyshevFFS

  94. stush18 says:

    VOR,

    Confidence is such a peculiar thing. Especially once a team grabs it as a whole

    Nuge seems to have to have it back.

    Mcdavid doesn’t look to have it right now.

  95. Ice Sage says:

    leadfarmer: In one year every team fixed their defense with high quality mobile defensemen?

    I coulda worded that better – last year, Karllson and Lindholm figured it out mostly and I see others – Provorov last night – respecting McDavid just the right amount. And yes, I think every team has upgraded their defensive speed by replacing Gryba-types with Benning-types… oops

  96. judgedrude says:

    Lowetide: of course [Nuge’s line] were on the ice for the winning goal.

    I’m late to the game, but I might have to call you on this LT. By my eye, Nuge had just hopped the boards and couldn’t catch the play before the goal. (He was replacing a 97 gliding to the bench.) Maybe if #4 was defending instead of swimming, Nuge could have come back and influenced the play.

    So, while “they” were on the ice for the goal which will be noted in the numbers, I didn’t find any blame on Nuge’s part, and I don’t like seeing Nuge’s name bundled in the blame on winning goal.

  97. Dustylegnd says:

    If Kailer Yamamoto plays all year on 97’s wing, going 15-25-40, is that success? I like this player’s skill very much. Also wonder if the organization is still so focused on development, the possibility of wasting Connor McDavid’s final entry-level year is an acceptable cost of said development

    These stats would have placed Kailer 5th or 6th on the oilers last year, Eberle is gone

    Nuge played 82 games last year and had 43 points 6 mill at 23 years old?

    The above stats would be an incredible Success for Yamamoto

  98. VOR says:

    The problem with Pacioretty (another goalie disturber) and Neal is, if I am remembering correctly both are left wings. The Oilers need a RW. I keep wondering if Jarome Iginla is in play. At 37 he would have been perfect. Now, who knows. But at least the signing might shake the Oilers up.

  99. Woodguy v2.0 says:

    Lots of talk about PDO and luck given the situation.

    As well all know PDO is SH% + SV%.

    Let’s break down last year’s PDO by its McDavid components and non-McDavid components.

    16/17
    Overall
    SH% 8.29
    SV% .9274
    PDO 1010

    16/17
    McDavid On ice
    SH% 10.66
    SV% .9243
    PDO 1031

    16/17
    McDavid Off ice
    SH% 6.93
    SV% .9288
    PDO 998

    If you use Talbot’s career 5v5 SV% and McDavid’s career ONSH% then you actually get 1030 so that might be his baseline PDO in front of Talbot at this point in both of their careers.

    Why I wanted to show this was to dig a bit deeper into the SH%.

    I went through the exercise of taking all the shots last year and multiplying them by the player’s career SH%.

    When you do that last year’s overall SH% of 8.29% would have been…wait for it…..8.39%

    So they shot almost exactly what you would expect.

    Talbot’s career 5v5 SV% is .9275 and last year he put up a .9274

    So their PDO of 1010 looks to be their “expected PDO” Most of that is driven by McDavid’s amazing ONSH% and Talbot being an above average goalie.

    So their 1010 wasn’t “lucky” to be 10pts above 1000, it looks like their baseline PDO as a team last year *based on who shot the puck* and Talbot’s careers 5v5 SV%

    Let’s look at his year:

    17/18
    Overall
    SH% 3.52
    SV% .9078
    PDO 943

    17/18
    McDavid On Ice
    SH% 4.76
    SV% .8654
    PDO 913

    McDavid Off Ice
    SH% 2.61
    SV% .9326
    PDO 959

    Isn’t that something?

    Now, I want to be clear here. Yamamoto is not wrecking McDavid’s PDO. The goals against mostly come from the first 3 games of the year where Drai was on his wing. (but the goals have dried up since Yamamoto started at 1RW….)

    What should be the expected PDO this year?

    I went through the same exercise and took all the shots and multiplied by the shooter’s career SH% just like I did for last year and this is what I found:

    EDM’s SH%, if everyone shot their career SH% should be…………7.02% (!!)

    If Talbot had put his career .9275 so far (assume he played all the games for this exercise) then their “expected” PDO would be 998, or 12 full points lower than their “expected PDO” last year.

    Why is their “expected” SH% 7.02 when last year it was 8.39%?

    Two reasons:

    1) Career SH% out:
    Eberle 11.31%
    Pouliot 10.79%
    Pitlick 15.0%

    Career SH% in:
    Strome – 8.07%
    Jokinen – 8.88%
    Yamamoto – ?

    Note – for the purpose of this post a player’s career SH% is their SH% since the 13/14 season

    Note – When I was figuring out the team’s “expected SH%” I gave Yamamoto’s 11%. This is *probably* high,but I looked at a few WHL players who scored over 40 goals in their draft year and what they shot in their rookie NHL year and I figure 11% is *probably* close. Certainly close enough for this. I’m probably a bit high.

    So some shooting talent went out the door and not as much came in.

    2) Who is shooting has changed.

    Here is a list of who has shot the puck this year 5v5 for the OIlers:

    CONNOR.MCDAVID 19
    KAILER.YAMAMOTO 18
    DARNELL.NURSE 17
    ADAM.LARSSON 16
    OSCAR.KLEFBOM 16
    PATRICK.MAROON 13
    RYAN.STROME 12
    LEON.DRAISAITL 10
    YOHANN.AUVITU 10
    ERIC.GRYBA 8
    JUSSI.JOKINEN 8
    MILAN.LUCIC 8
    ZACK.KASSIAN 8
    RYAN.NUGENT-HOPKINS 7
    BRAD.MALONE 6
    ANTON.SLEPYSHEV 5
    KRIS.RUSSELL 5
    MARK.LETESTU 4
    DRAKE.CAGGIULA 3
    IIRO.PAKARINEN 3
    MATT.BENNING 3

    The Oiler Dmen are currently taking 37.7% of the shots.

    That is a very, very high number.

    Last year EDM Dmen took 30.2% of the shots.

    If Darnell Nurse and Adam Larsson are #3 and #4 on your team in shot volume, you are not going to score a lot.

    Shots from the point rarely go in and they don’t create as many rebound opportunities of people assume.

    Here’s some really good reading on that: https://theenergyline.wordpress.com/2017/04/04/the-flyers-low-to-high-low-percentage-offense/

    That piece talks about how PHI used the “low to high” pass a lot before a shot last year and its dismal results.

    I don’t know how often EDM is using “low to high” this year but I’ll report it here when Corey publishes some results from this year.

    Here’s another great piece on “low to high” on PHI at The Athletic: https://theathletic.com/93906/2017/09/05/can-the-flyers-fix-their-5-on-5-goal-scoring-issues-in-2017-18/

    Bottom line:

    While we expect the Oilers PDO to regress to “normal” we need to realize that even if everyone shot their career SH% and the goalies put up the same .9274 as last year the PDO would be 12 points lower.

    EDM’s expected SH% is only 7.02 based on who is shooting the puck and their career SH%.

    If EDM shot 7.02 5v5 last year, then they would have scored 25 less 5v5 goals than they did.

    25 goals is a massive number.

    The problems with secondary scoring on this team won’t all regress away.

    The problems are real and are driven by the roster and scheme (assuming that they are being coached to take that many point shots and they probably are, this stuff doesn’t just happen on its own)

    I fully expect McDavid to be McDavid and end the year at 1030 PDO if Talbot continues to be Talbot. (unless McDavid is passing from low to high too often as well…..)

    The rest of the team is an issue though.

    The “McDavid Off” Oilers won’t shoot 2.61% all year, but I’m not sure they’ll crest 6% either.

  100. OriginalPouzar says:

    who: Yeah I’ve seen you post these pairings before.
    Problem is you are giving second pairing minutes to 2 sophmore s, with one of them struggling. And you are cutting the minutes of one of our best dmen. At least he has been so far.
    That does not seem like a recipe for success.

    I don’t agree that Russell has been one of our best d-men – he has regressed since the beginning of the season – largely due to being placed on the right side I would think.

    He was good against CHI, not good against PHI.

    I think Darnell has been one of the best d-men and he got “demoted” to the 3rd pairing (for Benning) but was given 2nd pairing minutes (with Gryba) last night. I think he should continue to get 2nd pairing minutes and I think it should be with Benning as Russell should stay on the left side, always.

  101. Woodguy v2.0 says:

    VOR:
    The problem with Pacioretty (another goalie disturber) and Neal is, if I am remembering correctly both are left wings. The Oilers need a RW. I keep wondering if Jarome Iginla is in play. At 37 he would have been perfect. Now, who knows. But at least the signing might shake the Oilers up.

    I don’t think handedness matters as much for forwards except on PP set up.

    Also, thanks for the post yesterday. Great stuff.

  102. OriginalPouzar says:

    Safin finishes with the 1 goal in an OTL.

    Samorukov just put Guelph ahead with a goal – 4-3 going in to the third. I think that’s his first of the year.

  103. slopitch says:

    Can Maroon or MP play RW? Id be all about getting an addition up front. Duchene too but he would be tough to afford. I dont think they can afford to move Nuge. This is is the year to add and if they need to add without subtracting. If you move Nuge, wait till the offseason. As for overall team, Benning keeps getting walked. They need a D and a F plus Drai+Sekera back. Save JP for an AP/DD type, otherwise, I think keep him.

    Yamo I thought played well again last game but as many are saying the results arent there yet. Drai in his rookie season rode some bad percentages, went down and developed like a hot damn. I think the play is to do the same with Yamo.

    Oilers are missing Drai and Sekera, if Anaheim missing Lindholm+Kesler means they are expected to lag, the the Oilers results aren’t that far off. They are playing ok and would appear fine with some puck luck. That doesn’t mean you don’t look to improve the team. 2 pieces away.

  104. Woodguy v2.0 says:

    Ice Sage,

    Last year’s Oilers looking more like the 13-14 Avalanche by the day – a mirage of good health, weak rivals, re-balancing and career years for 3 – 4 players.

    In the above post I figured that they were almost exactly as to be expected last year.

    They didn’t ride the PDO pony like COL in 13/14

    Health was certainly lucky though.

  105. Woodguy v2.0 says:

    OriginalPouzar: I sure as hell hope not – he made a great play on the PP last night (cross-ice pass to Rattie who scored – terrible tending) but lets not rush yet another first year pro prospect and let the man continue to develop in the proper league.

    The issue with PP1 is not Klefbom, its the lack of Drai.

    Lets not forget the fan-base bemoaning the PP at the beginning of last year – calling for the firing of Jay Woodcroft – the same PP was the league’s best for half the season and finished 5th overall.

    Let Bear develop!!!!

    Agreed.

    Also,

    The problem with the PP is too many point shots, not too little.

    PP1 will be fine when Drai gets back to be the bumper.

  106. who says:

    OriginalPouzar: I don’t agree that Russell has been one of our best d-men – he has regressed since the beginning of the season – largely due to being placed on the right side I would think.

    He was good against CHI, not good against PHI.

    I think Darnell has been one of the best d-men and he got “demoted” to the 3rd pairing (for Benning) but was given 2nd pairing minutes (with Gryba) last night. I think he should continue to get 2nd pairing minutes and I think it should be with Benning as Russell should stay on the left side, always.

    I don’t buy into the whole Russell can’t play the right side narrative. He was fine there last year with Sekera and he looked fine with Nurse the last two games.
    And he has played well so far this year. I didn’t see any issues with him yesterday.
    I wish he was bigger and cheaper but the man can play hockey on my team any day.
    There is this narrative with Russell that he can’t play right side and he is a terrible puck mover
    I think he’s already proven he can play the right side and I think he moves the puck just fine, with his legs and his passing.
    What he is, and I think it confuses people, is very conservative with the puck. If he doesn’t see a high percentage pass or lane, it’s off the glass and out. And that pisses bloggers off. But I bet it makes the coach happy.
    This guy was an outstanding offensive dman and point producer in junior. He quarterback ed the power play on Canada s national junior team. He didn’t suddenly lose these skills. But the risk has been coached out of him.

  107. Woodguy v2.0 says:

    SayItAin’tSo, Gretz, SayItAin’tSo!,

    1) Looch and Eberle got an awful lot of rope with CmD last year before that line was nixed. Now I posted it a week or so back but after starting last year hot Ebs took until mid January to hit the 10 goal mark so I would be guessing that the majority of his crooked numbers were from CmD’s rookie year because Eberle was NOT an effective offensive threat for large swaths (with or without CmD) last year.

    Last year the Oilers scored at near identical rates with either Drai or Eberle on 97’s RW if you controlled for who played LW

    5v5 Goals For/60
    19-97-29 = 3.57
    19-97-14 = 3.87
    27-97-29 = 2.41
    27-97-14 = 2.58

    The reason for the overall disparity between 29 or 14 with 97 was TOI
    19-97-29 = 538min
    19-97-14 = 139min
    27-97-29 = 74min
    27-97-14 = 232min

    If that’s the case we have a sample size from what you posted above that has Maroon and Drai sitting pretty for long time, while JP and Poo have decent numbers but in very limited time. I think this strengthens my point that CmD is a tough player to play with as a winger. That’s not any sort of slag but he moves so fast and can control the puck so easily it’s tough for guys to get used to that.

    I think its the opposite and any playing with 97 who can keep up, keep their stick on the ice, pass it to McDavid and go to the net will do well.

    2) Given the above, my question is at what point do we assign Kailer to one of those buckets?
    My eye test says he has been getting better every game so far save for yesterday’s 3rd where the checking ground everyone down. In the previous Chicago and Carolina games he put up something like 16 shots, a few of which were the 5-bell variety and had a couple of posts.

    I’m sure he’ll be fine as time goes along (given enough time) and he learns the difference between scoring in the NHL and scoring in the WHL. What works, what doesn’t etc.

    Thing is though, EDM doesn’t have the luxury of finding out how long it will take. They need to bank wins now.

    As per Kinger’s long post above I don’t think its reasonable to expect Kailer to shoot 0% for a season nor for the team to have a shooting percentage that plumbs the worst of all time. Now that isn’t to say Kailer is going to break out and score a hatty next game but given the tiny tiny sample size and the overall lack of offensive production from Maroon, I’m not as worried that McD’s offense has dipped because of Kailer.
    I think, like everyone on the goal scorers side right now, CmD is in a bit of an offensive funk. It sucks but once things start to normalize across the team re: shooting percentage Kailer’s numbers will start ticking up as well.

    While I like Kailer and think he will be a very good player in the NHL I don’t like the idea of taking a rookie and playing him against the best Dmen in the world and that is what you see night after night playing with McDavid.

    He won’t shoot 0% forever but based on almost every NHLer who has come from the CHL they’ve said its much different learning to score in the NHL compared to the CHL.

    No one knows how long it will take him to figure it out and EDM does not have the luxury of time in terms of this season.

  108. Pescador says:

    VOR:
    The problem with Pacioretty (another goalie disturber) and Neal is, if I am remembering correctly both are left wings. The Oilers need a RW. I keep wondering if Jarome Iginla is in play. At 37 he would have been perfect. Now, who knows. But at least the signing might shake the Oilers up.

    Iggy is 40

  109. stush18 says:

    Woodguy v2.0,

    I’d agree except our only top six forward that shoots right is strome.

  110. stush18 says:

    Pescador: Iggy is 40

    You’re only as old as you feel

  111. JimmyV1965 says:

    OriginalPouzar: I agree with Yamamoto and sending him down and the reasoning.

    I was an advocate of signing Hemsky in the off-season thinking he’d be good veteran RW depth, however, from Hab fans, he’s got almost nothing left and has been taking quite a few PIMs (the slash the hands penalties). I’m not sure if he’d be able to help but it wouldn’t cost much of anything (except a contract spot if we aren’t sending one back to the Habs).

    JP hasn’t even been getting shots on net the last few games but he’s playing with Josh Currie as his center.I’d like to allow him to continue to develop in the AHL but I’m wondering if the lack of offensive linemates is actually a detriment to him.

    Drai has 2 points in 6 games prior to his call-up and then never looked back.

    Maybe Jesse will be able to produce at the NHL level despite not producing at the AHL level just due to teamates – that does happen.

    I think it’s important to remember that Drai was dominant in the preseason that year, maybe even better than McDavid. JP was meh in the preseason.

  112. JimmyV1965 says:

    JimmyV1965: I think it’s important to remember that Drai was dominant in the preseason that year, maybe even better than McDavid.JP was meh in the preseason.

    Sorry. Quoted wrong comment. LOL.

  113. Woodguy v2.0 says:

    VOR,

    Good post Vor.

    I’m going to quibble with this bit though:

    What heat maps and expected goal metrics are telling us is that the Oilers are getting to the right places but aren’t converting.

    Here’s a link to their current 5v5 heat map: http://hockeyviz.com/team/EDM/1718

    While the very front of the net is red (indicating more than league average shots), the slot is cold blue.

    The points are also very red and those are very low % shots. In my post above I showed how much of the Oilers shots are coming from Dmen and its waaaay above average.

    My take is that they are relying on the low to high pass for a shot and then jam the net for the rebounds.

    The heat map matches this and watching the game gives some of this too.

    What’s missing is the passes across the slots and slot shots.

    These are almost as dangerous as a group as 2 on 1. 2-1 have a SH% of around 23% iirc and passes across the slot are about 21%.

    I think in addition to some higher SH% guys going out the door they’re trying to manufacture and grind too many goals Darrell Sutter style.

    Its not working.

    Here’s a link to an interesting interview with new LAK coach Stevens that happened before the season: http://lakingsinsider.com/2017/04/24/focus-middle-blake-stevens-talk-kopitar-evolved-conditioning/

    Here’s the key bit:

    Analytics tells you we don’t get enough scoring opportunities from the middle of the ice and that’s clearly an area where, whether it’s quickly off a transition forecheck and you’re going to try to get to those areas, you’re going to have people there more, and spend more time around the net. But it’s clearly an area we’re going to focus on.”

    If you look at LAK’s heat map from last year to this year, you see a big difference.

    The slot last year was cold blue (just like EDM right now) and their points (esp left point) was red hot.

    Now this year the slot is fire red and almost everything further out than 40 feet is cold blue.

    LAK 5v5 SH% last year: 6.21
    LAK 5v5 SH% this year: 10.44

    Now, they’re probably running hot, but I will wager a large sum it ends the year above 8% based on where they are shooting.

    They didn’t change many players either.

    Getting rid of Iginla for Cammallari is a good move, but most of their roster is the same.

    They’re just trying to manufacture goals from a much higher SH% area.

  114. Woodguy v2.0 says:

    stush18:
    Woodguy v2.0,

    I’d agree except our only top six forward that shoots right is strome.

    I don’t know what this is in reference to.

  115. Kinger_Oil.redux says:

    Woodguy v2.0,

    – I come in peace.

    – I’m not sure where you get the expected 7% shooting average. That would be the worst team in the league last year.

    – I have Edmonton with 2,547 shots last year, and a SH% of 9.55. Colorado was th worst at 7.16%.

    – Unless the data I’m citing is incorrect, I would not buy into an expected SH% that was worse than the worst team last year…:

    https://www.sportingcharts.com/nhl/stats/team-shooting-percentage/2016/

    – Additionally, 5×5 , I have our team shooting at 3.9% 30th in the league.. Last year we were 8.3%

    http://www.nhl.com/stats/team?aggregate=0&gameType=2&report=teampercentages&reportType=season&seasonFrom=20172018&seasonTo=20172018&filter=gamesPlayed,gte,1&sort=fiveOnFiveShootingPctg

  116. Pescador says:

    stush18: You’re only as old as you feel

    I feel like he is 40, better?

  117. LMHF#1 says:

    Woodguy v2.0,

    That low to high pass can work – if offensive D are your strong suit.

    Doing it with this group is like trying to play with an arm tied behind your back.

    No clue why this is the play – but you can watch it over and over in the games.

  118. Chachi says:

    leadfarmer: Friedman is talking about Oil trading for patches.This is where that trade is coming from and why this is being discussed today.None of us made up that trade scenario and no one has mentioned Pietrangelo

    When you are at parties do you often wonder what everyone else is laughing at?

  119. OriginalPouzar says:

    who: I don’t buy into the whole Russell can’t play the right side narrative. He was fine there last year with Sekera and he looked fine with Nurse the last two games.
    And he has played well so far this year. I didn’t see any issues with him yesterday.
    I wish he was bigger and cheaper but the man can play hockey on my team any day.
    There is this narrative with Russell that he can’t play right side and he is a terrible puck mover
    I think he’s already proven he can play the right side and I think he moves the puck just fine, with his legs and his passing.
    What he is, and I think it confuses people, is very conservative with the puck. If he doesn’t see a high percentage pass or lane, it’s off the glass and out. And that pisses bloggers off. But I bet it makes the coach happy.
    This guy was an outstanding offensive dman and point producer in junior. He quarterback ed the power play on Canada s national junior team. He didn’t suddenly lose these skills. But the risk has been coached out of him.

    I disagree that he was “just fine there last year” and I disagree that he can play the right side better than the left and I disagree that he is good at transitioning the puck.

    This is all based on my eye test and confirmed with stats.

    I was quite happy with Russell in the first few games, on the left side – he was actually able to transition the puck with both his legs and his feet – he simply can’t do it from the right side, its much tougher. We don’t get out of the zone in transition with Russell on the right side – he generally doesn’t move the puck forward with possession and when he does its not quick enough – it not his fault, its much harder to do on the off side.

    Russell can play on my team as well – I have no problem having him on the team. I am OK with him a 2LD but I’m simply not OK with him at 2RD unless he has a stud like Sekera on the other side (even then its not ideal).

    I’m sorry but his junior career over a decade ago means nothing right now. The vast majority of NHL players had material junior careers. Most bottom 6 forwards in the NHL were offensive players in junior.

    His decade plus career in the NHL provides more evidence of his skill set than in junior.

  120. Woodguy v2.0 says:

    Kinger_Oil.redux,

    – I come in peace.

    Good start. Me too.


    – I’m not sure where you get the expected 7% shooting average. That would be the worst team in the league last year.

    Its 5v5 only and based on who has shot the puck and their career sh%. I’ll post it at the end because its loooooong.


    – I have Edmonton with 2,547 shots last year, and a SH% of 9.55. Colorado was th worst at 7.16%.

    I’m only using 5v5. I have 1991 shots, 165 goals last year. 8.29% via corsica.hockey. Natural stat trick has 2005 shots, 166 goals for 8.28%. I used corsica, they are virtually identical.


    – Unless the data I’m citing is incorrect, I would not buy into an expected SH% that was worse than the worst team last year…:

    Its the 5v5 thing again.

    Additionally, 5×5 , I have our team shooting at 3.9% 30th in the league.. Last year we were 8.3%

    I posted that they shot 8.29% last year so those match mine.

    This year is a bit different:

    Corsica has EDM 5v5 SH% at 3.52 SH%
    Natural Stat trick has it at 3.86%

    Since 3.9 is closer to NST I’ll defer to that.

    Doesn’t change anything in my post except give their SH% *less* room to grow than I thought (!)

    Also,

    I got the 7.02% as their “expected SH% so far by giving every shot the sh% of the shooter’s career sh%

    The big thing is that Dmen are taking almost 40% of the shots this year where as last year it was 30%. Where Dmen shoot from is a much, much lower SH% area and consequently their SH% is lower.

    See my post to Vor. EDM’s shot map looks like LAK last year. Nothing in the slot, all at the point and right at the net. Right at the net is good. Cold slot and hot points are not.

    So here is everyone who shot the puck this year:

    CONNOR.MCDAVID 19
    KAILER.YAMAMOTO 18
    DARNELL.NURSE 17
    ADAM.LARSSON 16
    OSCAR.KLEFBOM 16
    PATRICK.MAROON 13
    RYAN.STROME 12
    LEON.DRAISAITL 10
    YOHANN.AUVITU 10
    ERIC.GRYBA 8
    JUSSI.JOKINEN 8
    MILAN.LUCIC 8
    ZACK.KASSIAN 8
    RYAN.NUGENT-HOPKINS 7
    BRAD.MALONE 6
    ANTON.SLEPYSHEV 5
    KRIS.RUSSELL 5
    MARK.LETESTU 4
    DRAKE.CAGGIULA 3
    IIRO.PAKARINEN 3
    MATT.BENNING 3

    Here is their shoot % this year:
    CONNOR.MCDAVID 10.53
    KAILER.YAMAMOTO 0.00
    DARNELL.NURSE 0.00
    ADAM.LARSSON 0.00
    OSCAR.KLEFBOM 0.00
    PATRICK.MAROON 7.69
    RYAN.STROME 0.00
    LEON.DRAISAITL 10.00
    YOHANN.AUVITU 0.00
    ERIC.GRYBA 0.00
    JUSSI.JOKINEN 0.00
    MILAN.LUCIC 12.50
    ZACK.KASSIAN 0.00
    RYAN.NUGENT-HOPKINS 14.29
    BRAD.MALONE 0.00
    ANTON.SLEPYSHEV 0.00
    KRIS.RUSSELL 20.00
    MARK.LETESTU 0.00
    DRAKE.CAGGIULA 0.00
    IIRO.PAKARINEN 0.00
    MATT.BENNING 0.00

    Here is their career SH% (note: I gave Kailer 11% based on him scoring 40+ goals in the WHL and what those players tend to shoot in their rookie year)

    CONNOR.MCDAVID 12.4
    KAILER.YAMAMOTO 11.0
    DARNELL.NURSE 3.8
    ADAM.LARSSON 4.3
    OSCAR.KLEFBOM 5.2
    PATRICK.MAROON 13.4
    RYAN.STROME 8.1
    LEON.DRAISAITL 11.6
    YOHANN.AUVITU 3.9
    ERIC.GRYBA 2.6
    JUSSI.JOKINEN 8.9
    MILAN.LUCIC 12.0
    ZACK.KASSIAN 11.3
    RYAN.NUGENT-HOPKINS 9.2
    BRAD.MALONE 10.3
    ANTON.SLEPYSHEV 6.2
    KRIS.RUSSELL 2.7
    MARK.LETESTU 7.2
    DRAKE.CAGGIULA 7.3
    IIRO.PAKARINEN 6.7
    MATT.BENNING 3.0

    If you take all the shots EDM has taken and then use the player’s career SH% (not this years) it will give you the “expected SH%”.

    This equals 7.02%

    Dmen are taking a massive chunk of the shots and those are low percentage shots.

    Some shooting talent has left the team and was replaced by lesser talents, but the biggest culprit is the volume coming from the Dmen.

    Here is who shot the puck last year:
    CONNOR.MCDAVID 190
    OSCAR.KLEFBOM 160
    JORDAN.EBERLE 156
    RYAN.NUGENT-HOPKINS 146
    PATRICK.MAROON 142
    MILAN.LUCIC 119
    LEON.DRAISAITL 103
    ZACK.KASSIAN 103
    DARNELL.NURSE 81
    ADAM.LARSSON 77
    ANDREJ.SEKERA 76
    DRAKE.CAGGIULA 66
    MARK.LETESTU 66
    BENOIT.POULIOT 64
    MATT.BENNING 64
    KRIS.RUSSELL 63
    ANTON.SLEPYSHEV 55
    TYLER.PITLICK 53
    DAVID.DESHARNAIS 45
    ERIC.GRYBA 45
    BRANDON.DAVIDSON 42
    MATT.HENDRICKS 38
    JESSE.PULJUJARVI 35
    IIRO.PAKARINEN 15
    ANTON.LANDER 11
    JUJHAR.KHAIRA 10
    TAYLOR.BECK 5

    If you compare the top 10 from each year it jumps out at you.

    Last year 3 Dmen in the top 10 in spots 2, 9 and 10.

    This year 5 Dmen in the top 10 in spots 3,4,5,9, and 10.

    Where the shots are coming from has changed and that will change the SH% in a big way.

  121. sliderule says:

    Woodguy v2.0:
    VOR,

    Good post Vor.

    I’m going to quibble with this bit though:

    What heat maps and expected goal metrics are telling us is that the Oilers are getting to the right places but aren’t converting.

    Here’s a link to their current 5v5 heat map: http://hockeyviz.com/team/EDM/1718

    While the very front of the net is red (indicating more than league average shots), the slot is cold blue.

    The points are also very red and those are very low % shots.In my post above I showed how much of the Oilers shots are coming from Dmen and its waaaay above average.

    My take is that they are relying on the low to high pass for a shot and then jam the net for the rebounds.

    The heat map matches this and watching the game gives some of this too.

    What’s missing is the passes across the slots and slot shots.

    These are almost as dangerous as a group as 2 on 1.2-1 have a SH% of around 23% iirc and passes across the slot are about 21%.

    I think in addition to some higher SH% guys going out the door they’re trying to manufacture and grind too many goals Darrell Sutter style.

    Its not working.

    Here’s a link to an interesting interview with new LAK coach Stevens that happened before the season:http://lakingsinsider.com/2017/04/24/focus-middle-blake-stevens-talk-kopitar-evolved-conditioning/

    Here’s the key bit:

    Analytics tells you we don’t get enough scoring opportunities from the middle of the ice and that’s clearly an area where, whether it’s quickly off a transition forecheck and you’re going to try to get to those areas, you’re going to have people there more, and spend more time around the net. But it’s clearly an area we’re going to focus on.”

    If you look at LAK’s heat map from last year to this year, you see a big difference.

    The slot last year was cold blue (just like EDM right now) and their points (esp left point) was red hot.

    Now this year the slot is fire red and almost everything further out than 40 feet is cold blue.

    LAK 5v5 SH% last year: 6.21
    LAK 5v5 SH% this year:10.44

    Now, they’re probably running hot, but I will wager a large sum it ends the year above 8% based on where they are shooting.

    They didn’t change many players either.

    Getting rid of Iginla for Cammallari is a good move, but most of their roster is the same.

    They’re just trying to manufacture goals from a much higher SH% area.

    That’s exactly what my eyes are telling me.

    Shoot from outside and jam the net.

    The only problem is the defence is also there jamming and if the puck gets thru it has to find a low hole.

    The oiler shooting percentage is going to be dead last at season end if they don’t change coaching philosophy.

    The other thing that is happening with two forwards jamming if you recover the puck in corner there is no one open to pass to .

    The recovery forward dumps it out and as there is no one in slot but the opposition it results in a breakout against usually only two defencemen.

  122. Woodguy v2.0 says:

    Kinger_Oil.redux,

    I’m only concerned about 5v5 because I know the PP will be fine.

    They need to tell Klef to shoot less, but it will be fine.

    Especially when Drai is back on the bumper.

  123. Woodguy v2.0 says:

    LMHF#1:
    Woodguy v2.0,

    That low to high pass can work – if offensive D are your strong suit.

    Doing it with this group is like trying to play with an arm tied behind your back.

    No clue why this is the play – but you can watch it over and over in the games.

    I think it can work too, but agreed on the personnel

    Those two links in my first giant post are great reading on the subject

  124. frjohnk says:

    Woodguy v2.0,

    Great comment. While I believe we have been a “unlucky” and its been a short sample size, there seems like there was something else going on in regards to our lower shooting %. And I think you nailed it.

    Who is shooting and where the shots are coming from matters. Did not realize our Dmen ( all who have not much of a history of goal scoring) are taking a bigger % of total shots compared to last year.

    Good stuff

  125. Kinger_Oil.redux says:

    Woodguy v2.0,

    – Ok so our sources aren’t all that different. If you have decided that we will have a shooting percentage a full % + less than last year, fill your boots. It would be the worst shooting % in the league

    – I don’t think will be true, and they are scoring at half the rate of last year

    – Again if you think that is because of a system change and a coaching pholiosphy and losing Ebs and his career 13.1% shooting percentage, that’s fine as well.

    – You’ve been very vocal about this team not being as talented on the scoring front as previous years

    – I disagree, and time will tell. I suspect they will score roughly the same as last year: more injuries but a year older, and young guys step up

    – They are scoring at half the rate at 5×5 as last year: I don’t think this is the new norm

    – Fair?

  126. Woodguy v2.0 says:

    sliderule: That’s exactly what my eyes are telling me.

    Shoot from outside and jam the net.

    The only problem is the defence is also there jamming and if the puck gets thru it has to find a low hole.

    The oiler shooting percentage is going to bedead last at season end if they don’t change coaching philosophy.

    The other thing that is happening with two forwards jamming if you recover the puck in corner there is no one open to pass to .

    The recovery forward dumps it out and as there is no one in slot but the opposition it results in a breakout against usually only two defencemen.

    Yeah, that’s what I’m seeing too.

    There are open looks in the slot and the forwards are jamming the net even when the puck is on the half wall.

    Its like they don’t trust anyone to shoot it or get into a shooting position.

    Not a lot of movement from the forwards without the puck in the ozone to open up passing lanes either.

    Everyone goes to their spot and stops.

  127. Woodguy v2.0 says:

    Kinger_Oil.redux,

    – Ok so our sources aren’t all that different.

    Agreed

    If you have decided that we will have a shooting percentage a full % + less than last year, fill your boots. It would be the worst shooting % in the league

    I haven’t decided anything.

    I’m not making any of this up.

    If who is shooting the puck continues for the next 75 games along the same path as the first 7 games then that will be the probable outcome based on every player’s career SH%.

    – I don’t think will be true, and they are scoring at half the rate of last year

    Some of that is players shooing lower % than normal, that should correct.

    Not all of it is players shooting below their averages though.


    – Again if you think that is because of a system change and a coaching pholiosphy and losing Ebs and his career 13.1% shooting percentage, that’s fine as well.

    There are two very different points there.

    I made it clear in the posts that its mostly shot location.

    Losing shooting talent has to have some effect too, but its not the majority of the reason.


    – You’ve been very vocal about this team not being as talented on the scoring front as previous years

    Yes, I think its the major flaw of the roster make up and I had 11 years of cheering for a non-playoff team, that’s enough. Connor covers many flaws, but not all of them.


    – I disagree, and time will tell. I suspect they will score roughly the same as last year: more injuries but a year older, and young guys step up

    We’ll see. If the shooting locations don’t change don’t be surprised if 5v5 goals are way off.


    – They are scoring at half the rate at 5×5 as last year: I don’t think this is the new norm

    I specifically wrote that the current SH% is not the new norm so we agree.

    The 5v4 will be fine.

    Even if they continue to shoot as much from the point as they have their 5v5 SH% will still come up, just not to last year’s standard.


    – Fair?

    For the most part yes.

  128. Woodguy v2.0 says:

    frjohnk,

    Thanks Padre.

    I appreciate that.

  129. who says:

    OriginalPouzar: I disagree that he was “just fine there last year” and I disagree that he can play the right side better than the left and I disagree that he is good at transitioning the puck.

    This is all based on my eye test and confirmed with stats.

    I was quite happy with Russell in the first few games, on the left side – he was actually able to transition the puck with both his legs and his feet – he simply can’t do it from the right side, its much tougher. We don’t get out of the zone in transition with Russell on the right side – he generally doesn’t move the puck forward with possession and when he does its not quick enough – it not his fault, its much harder to do on the off side.

    Russell can play on my team as well – I have no problem having him on the team.I am OK with him a 2LD but I’m simply not OK with him at 2RD unless he has a stud like Sekera on the other side (even then its not ideal).

    I’m sorry but his junior career over a decade ago means nothing right now. The vast majority of NHL players had material junior careers. Most bottom 6 forwards in the NHL were offensive players in junior.

    His decade plus career in the NHL provides more evidence of his skill set than in junior.

    Never said he was better on the right side than the left. But right now he is the second best right side dman on this team. You may not like it but your eyes, and maybe even your numbers, probably tell you this.
    Which dmen have been better than him this year? Nurse, probably. Larrson, probably. Klefbom, maybe. Looks like he is one of our four best dmen to me.

  130. Caller Zen says:

    stush18: You’re only as old as you feel

    Tell that to Jagr who was injured last night!

  131. frjohnk says:

    Woodguy v2.0: The 5v4 will be fine.

    Being fine is quite the step down from last year, though.

    Every year, there are teams that try new some things on the PP and that PP group goes red hot. Then the next year, other teams PK have had a whole year of data and time to study on how to defend those red hot PP groups. Im thinking of the year of 11-12 red hot Oiler PP group that had RNH the “PP witch”, Hall and EBERLE, then the next year, other teams PK adapted to this PP group and style. No more red hotness PP.

    Now Im not saying the Oilers PP will go stone cold for the whole year. A PP with McDavid and Draisaitl will score more goals than average. But it is not out of the question that other teams have had enough data and time to study on how better defend the Oilers PP.

    Is there any data that shows how repeatable certain PP groups are year to year?

    EDIT: I should add, the majority of successful PP teams had a larger amount of their shot attempts from the slot ( except Dallas for some strange reason) And Edmonton was way up there last year. The counting numbers of shots from the slot on the PP this year are not the same for the Oilers this year. I don’t know if this is the Oilers, or if its the other teams PK not allowing this to happen.

    EDIT 2.0. another look at the PP numbers and they are not far off from last year. Its just that a bunch of other teams are RED RED HOT

  132. Kinger_Oil.redux says:

    Caller Zen: Tell that to Jagr who was injured last night!

    – good thing we didn’t sign him -he was a lousy choice I thought (***ducks***)

  133. Kinger_Oil.redux says:

    Woodguy v2.0,

    – Anyway, I understand your point of view: I don’t agree, and 7 games in doesn’t change my opinion given my read of the team stats to date, and what I see watch doesn’t match the narrative IMO

    – If your right this will not be a good team this year, and we won’t make the playoffs: I don’t see it…

    – We wait…

  134. OriginalPouzar says:

    who: Never said he was better on the right side than the left. But right now he is the second best right side dman on this team. You may not like it but your eyes, and maybe even your numbers,probably tell you this.
    Which dmen have been better than him this year? Nurse, probably. Larrson, probably. Klefbom, maybe. Looks like he is one of our four best dmen to me.

    I can’t disagree with what you’ve posted but, in my opinion, its not good enough – Although he’s been our second best d-man on the right side this year, that doesn’t mean he’s been good enough.

    Yes, Benning has struggled at 2RD this year, when paired with Russell as 2LD – I’d like to to see Nurse and Benning on that 2nd pairing – they have a history of playing well together and I can see Benning getting his game back playing with Nurse.

    If Nurse is playing like a legit 2LD, the best scenario right now would be for Benning to find his game as 2RD.

    It might not work but I’d give it a shot.

  135. OriginalPouzar says:

    Seriously, why can’t I get WOWY for this season?

    I can only get last season on http://puckiq.com/teams/EDM

    I swear I’ve been able to do it for this season in the past but maybe I’m imagining that????

  136. Woodguy v2.0 says:

    Kinger_Oil.redux,

    – Anyway, I understand your point of view: I don’t agree, and 7 games in doesn’t change my opinion given my read of the team stats to date, and what I see watch doesn’t match the narrative IMO

    I didn’t present a narrative.

    I showed data.

    None of the SH% information or who is shooting is my opinion.

    Its not my opinion that Dmen shoot lower SH% due to shot location. That’s also just data.

    Whether or not EDM continues to take as many shots from the point is a matter of opinion/conjecture.

    I don’t know if they do. I hope not.

    – If your right this will not be a good team this year, and we won’t make the playoffs: I don’t see it…

    Before the year I had the Oilers at 95 points and in the playoffs.

    Before the year you had them as the Cup favorite or close.

    That was the difference in our opinion of this team, mostly due to differing opinions on the quality of non-McDavid TOI.

    I wondered about playoffs with the state of the Dcorps before the season as that correlates highly to teams making the playoffs, but my on-the-record prediction was 95 points and in.

    So when you say “if your right this will not be a good team this year, and we won’t make the playoffs” that was never my prediction before the season.

    I’m sensitive about people mis-characterizing what I say so I wrote the above out to be clear.

    I don’t think you are mis-characterizing what I say on purpose, but there can be lots of nuance lost when someone sums up another’s position.

    – We wait…

    That’s all we can do.

  137. Woodguy v2.0 says:

    OriginalPouzar:
    Seriously, why can’t I get WOWY for this season?

    I can only get last season on http://puckiq.com/teams/EDM

    I swear I’ve been able to do it for this season in the past but maybe I’m imagining that????

    Its not up yet.

    We’ll re-launch the site with v2.0 soon.

    You can get wowy data from natural stat trick but it takes more work to get it and figure it out.

  138. Woodguy v2.0 says:

    Kinger_Oil.redux: – good thing we didn’t sign him -he was a lousy choice I thought (***ducks***)

    Wouldn’t have happened if he signed in Edmonton.

    Almost everyone on the radio and in the fish wraps tell me players never get hurt if Lucic is on the team and that last year’s health was due mostly to him.

  139. VOR says:

    frjohnk: Being fine is quite the step down from last year, though.

    Every year, there are teams that try new some things on the PP and that PP group goes red hot.Then the next year, other teams PK have had a whole year of data and time to study on how to defend those red hot PP groups.Im thinking of the year of 11-12 red hot Oiler PP group that had RNH the “PP witch”, Hall and EBERLE, then the next year, other teams PK adapted to this PP group and style.No more red hotness PP.

    Now Im not saying the Oilers PP will go stone cold for the whole year.A PP with McDavid and Draisaitl will score more goals than average.But it is not out of the question that other teams have had enough data and time to study on how better defend the Oilers PP.

    Is there any data that shows how repeatable certain PP groups are year to year?

    EDIT: I should add, the majority of successful PP teams had a larger amount of their shot attempts from the slot ( except Dallas for some strange reason)And Edmonton was way up there last year.The counting numbers of shots from the slot on the PP this year are not the same for the Oilers this year.I don’t know if this is the Oilers, or if its the other teams PK not allowing this to happen.

    EDIT 2.0.another look at the PP numbers and they are not far off from last year.Its just that a bunch of other teams are RED RED HOT

    Are you using conversion rate or goal scoring as the test of success? The best conversion rate of all time is the Montreal Canadiens of 1977-78. Conversion rate isn’t highly replicable. The best powerplay in terms of goals was the 1988-89 Pittsburgh Penguins. Goal scoring is more replicable presumably in part because of drawing penalties being consistent. I am entertaining and cooking but will post link later.

  140. OriginalPouzar says:

    Woodguy v2.0: Its not up yet.

    We’ll re-launch the site with v2.0 soon.

    You can get wowy data from natural stat trick but it takes more work to get it and figure it out.

    Cool – thank – I swear I had been playing with this year’s data on there but it must have been during the off-season.

    Natural Stat Trick confuses the crap out of me – I don’t understand the difference between on-ice vs. individual vs. player index and rates vs. counts, etc.

  141. Lowetide says:

    OriginalPouzar:
    Seriously, why can’t I get WOWY for this season?

    I can only get last season on http://puckiq.com/teams/EDM

    I swear I’ve been able to do it for this season in the past but maybe I’m imagining that????

    We’re waiting. the site we all used went away and the Puck IQ boys are working like hell to get them up (and will). Natural Stat Trick is the site I’m using currently but frankly the sample is so small it’s basically worthless. Even WG’s comments on 97/Yamamoto, while they have value, can’t be sworn as reliable.

  142. McSorley33 says:

    I am glad LT wrote it….love truth bombs in here.

    We lack secondary scoring…….

    Indeed.

    RNH …forget points. He generated only 3 shots in the last 2 games. Unsure if any of those shots were 5 on 5.

  143. Mr. D. says:

    Russell haters Gryba haters. The guys are role playears. Figure it out.
    Are Klef and Larsson earning 9 mill? FK no.
    Man some people don’t understand the intricacies.

    who:
    The Russell haters are gonna hate him no matter what but he did nothing wrong on either goal. Sometimes his flopping bails teammates out and sometimes it doesn’t.

  144. OriginalPouzar says:

    Not a Russell hater at all and particularly like Gryba.

    I agree they are role players and I would like to see the two role players together as the third pairing.

    I think Russell would excel as a 3LD and, right now, he is behind Klef and Nurse on the LD depth chart (in my opinion) and he shouldn’t be an option for the right side unless absolutely necessary.

    I know Benning has struggled but Nurse is in the process of taking the next step – maybe Nurse can help get Matty’s game back as they’ve got a history of playing well together.

  145. Mr. D. says:

    I unfortunately thing Bennning is she’ll shocked. He will give a hit but is very afraid of getting hit. As a result he often doest get possession or make the right pass. Concussions are are bitch.

  146. VOR says:

    Woodguy v2.0:
    VOR,

    Good post Vor.

    I’m going to quibble with this bit though:

    What heat maps and expected goal metrics are telling us is that the Oilers are getting to the right places but aren’t converting.

    Here’s a link to their current 5v5 heat map: http://hockeyviz.com/team/EDM/1718

    While the very front of the net is red (indicating more than league average shots), the slot is cold blue.

    The points are also very red and those are very low % shots.In my post above I showed how much of the Oilers shots are coming from Dmen and its waaaay above average.

    My take is that they are relying on the low to high pass for a shot and then jam the net for the rebounds.

    The heat map matches this and watching the game gives some of this too.

    What’s missing is the passes across the slots and slot shots.

    These are almost as dangerous as a group as 2 on 1.2-1 have a SH% of around 23% iirc and passes across the slot are about 21%.

    I think in addition to some higher SH% guys going out the door they’re trying to manufacture and grind too many goals Darrell Sutter style.

    Its not working.

    Here’s a link to an interesting interview with new LAK coach Stevens that happened before the season:http://lakingsinsider.com/2017/04/24/focus-middle-blake-stevens-talk-kopitar-evolved-conditioning/

    Here’s the key bit:

    Analytics tells you we don’t get enough scoring opportunities from the middle of the ice and that’s clearly an area where, whether it’s quickly off a transition forecheck and you’re going to try to get to those areas, you’re going to have people there more, and spend more time around the net. But it’s clearly an area we’re going to focus on.”

    If you look at LAK’s heat map from last year to this year, you see a big difference.

    The slot last year was cold blue (just like EDM right now) and their points (esp left point) was red hot.

    Now this year the slot is fire red and almost everything further out than 40 feet is cold blue.

    LAK 5v5 SH% last year: 6.21
    LAK 5v5 SH% this year:10.44

    Now, they’re probably running hot, but I will wager a large sum it ends the year above 8% based on where they are shooting.

    They didn’t change many players either.

    Getting rid of Iginla for Cammallari is a good move, but most of their roster is the same.

    They’re just trying to manufacture goals from a much higher SH% area.

    Not to quibble in return but 3 points about your heat map.

    1. The heat map has large red zones that are two far away to be likely be rebounds. They are how.ever in high danger scoring areas and quite possibly the result of cross ice passes. If a team is playing post up like Hemsky and Horcoff used to on the cycle the cross ice pass isn’t up in the high slot it is down low.

    2. The cool blue slot could easily be an artifact of choices made by the defence. Certainly teams have been blocking McDavid from coming down the slot whenever possible.

    3. The pattern could well be skewed in the way you suggest. But that could well be a consequence of bad shooting not the cause of bad shooting. What does every coach tell his team to do when the puck just won’t go in? Get it on net and jam the net looking for rebounds. Two games of that seven games in and voila, the pattern we see.

  147. Bobcaygeon says:

    godot10:
    Yamamoto has zero goals.And you are predicting 15?

    Yamamoto is doing the other team’s work, depressing McDavid’s offense by nearly 50%.

    I completely agree with this….

  148. deardylan says:

    Just wondering from the more experienced bloggers in this group:

    How many recent players did Oilers trade when either org/player was at a emotional low point and we might have not got the best deal:

    1. Run outta town cause not doing as well as rest of team (Eberle and ?)
    2. Sold when they were not at a high point in career (?)
    3. Sold when Oilers struggling as a team (Hall and ?)

    Is it better trade when player and organization is at emotional high point so we can get bigger return?

    Right now is it the best time to trade when org/players also at emotional low point and not scoring?

  149. russ99 says:

    I see these issues with the offensive systems right now:

    Too many long tosses behind the goal line instead of chips on the dump – we’re giving defenders an extra 2-3 seconds to clear the puck before we put pressure on them.

    We’re not holding the puck under pressure. To much hot potato, get it and pass it. To add to the issue, at any sign of difficult matchup/impending puck battle, we throw it back to the point.

    Not enough pressure in the crease or the slot. Too often our cycle work is around the outside.

    Despite this we still managed to get some good looks and had chances to score from the high danger area. Our shot counts are also high.

    I’d like to see a subtle gameplan shift to increase quality instead of quantity, and a focus on shooting in practice.

  150. rickithebear says:

    Open/closed shots:

    We sent out one of the 20 best open hole shot forwards in the game.

    For a winger who has a brutal open hole shot rate.

    Over the last 2 years:
    the best wowy pairs.
    Superior pair for forward listed.
    once used up not shown again
    Maroon – Mcdavid
    Draisatl – Slepyshev
    Lucic-Puljujarvi
    Cagguila – Kassian

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