Hardball

The great baseball writer Bill James once wrote a chapter in one of his Abstracts about hitters before and after getting beaned by a pitcher. These injuries can be devastating (don’t look!) and sometimes have enormous short and long-term impact on a player’s career. I have always been sensitive to this issue because my Expos got screwed over most summers with this crap.

  • SI,  July 14, 1980: The Montreal Expos see no humor in being a target for National League pitchers, but that hasn’t stopped them from meting out punishment of their own. On May 3 Third Baseman Larry Parrish was struck on the right wrist by the Giants’ Ed Whitson and missed 31 games. On May 30 Rightfielder Ellis Valentine took a pitch on the cheekbone from the Cardinals’ Roy Thomas and won’t play again until this week. On June 12 Centerfielder Andre Dawson was struck on the right wrist by San Diego’s Eric Rasmussen and missed five games. “We think the Dawson and Parrish cases were deliberate,” says Montreal Manager Dick Williams. “We don’t like people throwing at our people. There will always be a time to get back for something. It may take a year or two, but these things aren’t forgotten.” Source

I think the Ellis Valentine beanball had real impact on his career, and Parrish had so many it took him a few years to get back to early promise. The Pirates were the worst. Buncha lunatics.

MATT BENNING’S CONCUSSION

I’ve been watching more baseball lately, October will do that to a guy. I’ve also been thinking about that 30 year old chapter by James, and about Matt Benning and why his passing is so different than one year ago. If I made a list of all the things he seems to be lacking (confidence, decisiveness) the most alarming is passing. He’s sending grenades where last year they were pure gems. Maybe it’s the concussion?

  • Matt Benning Corsi for 5×5 October 2016 to Feb 3 2017: (582-495) 54.04
  • Matt Benning Corsi for 5×5 Since February 3, 2017: (323-362) 47.15
  • Source

I understand February was a long time ago and there are all kinds of factors (quality of competition, partner) but I think Matt Benning a year ago had more nuance to his game, especially passing. It’s also true the gap between 47 and 54 percent isn’t so massive you’d necessarily pull him from the lineup. Still, a real concern.  He was 41gp, 2-8-10 before the incident and is 25gp, 1-4-5 since, so the offense has remained fairly consistent. I know it’s a stretch to imply the issue is ongoing, but  you know those bean balls sometimes covered longer than one season and that’s for sure.

WOWY MCDAVID (FWDS)

  • Original Pouzar asked about the McDavid WOWY’s yesterday, thought we might have a look to see what we can find. Source
  • Most of these numbers are in a criminally small sample size. I’m not math expert, but any time I post something like this, a responsible math human will send a quick note to remind me that this kind of table irritates the people who want math to be used responsibly.
  • There are players who show well in all three categories: Leon Draisaitl, Anton Slepyshev, Jussi Jokinen, Patricl Maroon, Kailer Yamamoto, DrakeCaggiula, Zack Kassian, Ryan Strome, Mark Letestu, Iiro Pakarinen. Oilers are having a nice Corsi run.

WOWY MCDAVID (BLUE)

  • The Oilers third pair of Yohann Auvitu and Eric Gryba is performing better without than  with McDavid, and they are killing it with 97. That’s some kind of number set.
  • Small sample size alert.
  • Kris Russell and Matt Benning are not strong without McDavid, all other blue get A’s across the board.
  • Darnell Nurse has good possession numbers.

REPLACEMENT LEVEL

Another Bill James beauty is ‘replacement level’ players, or rather a non-existent player who would represent something near average while being readily available. In 1985 baseball terms, a ‘replacement level’ left fielder would probably hit 16 home runs,  drive in 74 runs and hit .269. Kevin McReynolds, 1991. That’s a good player but you can probably find him without sending out a lot of value—maybe he’s a free agent who didn’t get signed in the first wave.

Yesterday, I wrote the following: “If Kailer Yamamoto plays all year on 97’s wing, going 15-25-40, is that success?” I didn’t mention it, but in my own mind I was trying to find a line in the sand for ‘replacement level’ 1R in the modern NHL era. It’s impossible to find a ‘replacement level’ Connor McDavid right winger because those guys are going to get good boxcars just because of who they’re hanging out with every night. Here are the RW’s who played with 97 last season and their 5x5boxcars:

  1. Leon Draisaitl 674:01 minutes (10-15-25)
  2. Jordan Eberle 402:31 minutes (6-9-15)
  3. Jesse Puljujarvi 84:01 minutes (0-4-4)
  4. Drake Caggiula 67:13 minutes (1-2-3)
  5. Zack Kassian 38:22 minutes (2-2-4)
  6. Tyler Pitlick 34:06 minutes (0-0-0)
  7. Iiro Pakarinen 3:40 minutes (0-0-0)
  8. Source

Not all of these men lined up at RW, but they are the group we’d recognize as playing mostly that position with Connor McDavid one year ago. Leon Draisaitl and Jordan Eberle are above ‘replacement level’ although you’ll find people who will argue the point on Eberle (I am not one of them).

  • If we add up all of the minutes, we get 1,304, averaging 16 minutes a game at 5×5.
  • That seems a little high for replacement level, but we’re dealing with McDavid’s winger here.
  • The total boxcars for 97’s RW’s at 5×5 one year ago? 19-32-51.
  • That’s above replacement level for sure, if we added even a small amount of special team production to this player (5-5-10) the boxcar total would be 24-37-61. That’s well above replacement level.
  • What if we took away Draisaitl and Eberle, then extrapolated the rest back to 1,304 minutes?  17-46-63. Good Christ, is Connor McDavid’s ‘replacement level’ RW a 60-point winger? Check my math!
  • I’m not certain how we’d establish replacement level for a McDavid RW to be honest. It’s interesting that the ‘replacement level’ wingers did so well with McDavid a year ago. Maybe a “Yamamoto” is the way to go, just not the actual Yamamoto this year?

Kailer Yamamoto is on pace for a 40-point season, that seems low for a ‘replacement level’ player at this spot in the order. Agree?

LOWDOWN WITH LOWETIDE

A fun two hours with much to discuss, I can’t wait! 10 this morning, TSN1260. Scheduled to appear:

  • Pierre Lebrun, TSN and The Athletic. Is it time to panic in Montreal? And what about Edmonton?
  • Andy McNamara, TSN. NFL weekend was wild and crazy.
  • Jason Gregor. Eskimos incredible comeback, Oilers in Pittsburgh.
  • Simon Boisvert, Prospect Insider. What should the Oilers do with Kailer Yamamoto?

10-1260 text, @Lowetide on twitter. Talk soon!

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95 Responses to "Hardball"

  1. dwillms says:

    That’s an interesting thought experiment.

    If you had Slepyshev, Caggiula or Strome lining up at RW for a full season next to 97, what would RE be for them? Higher than 20-30-50 at 5×5?

  2. frjohnk says:

    Interesting exercise with McDavids right wing.

    -I dont see how RW on McDavids line would hit 60 points if its not Draisaitl. Sample size of Cags and Kassian is pretty small. I would guess whoever is right wing will probably be around where Maroon was last year. Some where in the 40-45 point range in all situations.

    -if McDavid does not have Draisaitl as his winger, McDavids production at 5 on 5 will take a significant hit, as will Draisaitl on a different line. McDavid as great as he is, without Draisaitl as his winger will not win the scoring title.

    -as LT has mentioned many times, McDavid needs a skilled shooter on his line. Taking Drai out of the equation, that guy is not on the roster today.

  3. Kinger_Oil.redux says:

    – Great post LT!.

    – This is a cool piece of detective work for McD RW(s): ” if we added even a small amount of special team production to this player (5-5-10) the boxcar total would be 24-37-61″

    – I felt that the existing combo of wingers: drai, Caggs, pool, Sleppy (now Kailer), should be able to perform well with McD, and now you have quantified a line in the sand: we’ll see.

    – Its interesting the chatter about Maroon and contract – there was talk at camp, now nada..

    – On unrelated news: a silver fox sighting, what ever happened to DSF?!:

    http://www.cbc.ca/news/canada/new-brunswick/new-brunswick-man-captures-pictures-of-rarely-seen-animal-1.4364758

  4. OriginalPouzar says:

    Thank you for posting the WOWY numbers.

    Personally, if moving Drai to 2C reduces his ES numbers as well as McDavid’s ES numbers but spreads out the scoring enough and leads to the team winning more hockey games – that works for me.

    I don’t really care if McDavid wins the scoring title – I care about winning hockey games.

    On a high level, we are better off if McDavid doesn’t win the scoring title, Hart Trophy, etc. so that his bonuses don’t vest. I think he’ll deal financially.

  5. OriginalPouzar says:

    I’m am looking forward to PuckIQ having this year’s numbers – great work on the WOWY corsi numbers but I’m looking forward to seeing goal share and P/60 numbers.

    We know the Oilers are off the charts with corsi but we also know that corsi has its limitations, in particular in a small sample size, as evidenced by league leading corsi numbers but few points in the standings.

  6. Cassandra says:

    Replacement level in baseball means readily available minor league player that you should be able to acquire at little or not cost. It creates a baseline of comparison. Instead of comparing players to average, you compare them to replacement level. Otherwise an average player will appear to have no value, and a below average, yet still major league quality, player will appear to have negative value.

    The big difference between hockey and baseball is that hitting in baseball is more or less context neutral. There are no teammate effects and everyone faces the same pitchers.

    However, by the freely available criterion that defines replacement player, Brad Malone is a replacement player.

    So what you are asking is how many points would Malone put up on McDavid’s wing?

    You could get a rough estimate of this the same way minor league equivalencies are calculated, though the issue is reliable playing time data for the minor leagues.

  7. McSorley33 says:

    Very interesting on Matt Benning…..

  8. OriginalPouzar says:

    Anxious to see the lines at practice today and get some intel on Drai’s and Drake’s availability for tomorrow – we really need their speed and skill inserted in to our lineup.

    I’m going to guess the D pairs will stay the same although I’d like to see Nurse on the 2nd pairing with Benning – Nurse deserves the 2nd pairing based on his play and I think his best partner for the right side is Benning despite Benning’s struggles early this season – they have a history of playing well together.

    I think Russell/Gryba would be a fantastic third pairing!

  9. dustrock says:

    You would think unless Yamamoto was blowing everyone away and seemed headed for a Calder Trophy nomination, it would represent failure for this team to have a rookie play with McDavid.

    Drai injury aside, Chiarelli has given McDavid a stringbean rookie and a post-draft failure (Strome) as his 2 main RW choices this year.

    We are giving the best player in the world less than he deserves.

  10. Brantford Boy says:

    Ugh, math… I’m pretty sure I failed statistics 19 out of 20 times… but give me a Gauss-Jordan elimination method to solve a system of linear equations and look out…

    Your McDavid WOWY table above essentially screams #FreeAnton… it should be labelled as the ‘FreeAnton WOWY chart’…

    To prove how bad my math is… for your replacement level summary I used Ebs 403 minutes and divided it by Zack 38 minutes, giving me 10… then multiplying Kassian’s numbers by 10 giving 20-20-40… this should be referred to as the #freeZack equation… don’t do this with Maroons minutes, James Neal who???

  11. frjohnk says:

    For the RWers other than Draisaitl to hit 51 points in 1304 minutes at 5 on 5, they would be putting up a 2.35 P/60.

    Now for reference,

    -Draisaitl hit 2.23 P/60 with McDavid last year
    -EBERLE hit 2.24 P/60 with McDavid last year
    -Maroon hit 2.21 P/60 with McDavid last year
    -Lucic hit 1.46 P/60 with McDavid last year

    nobody else ( forwards) played over 100 minutes at 5 on 5 with McDavid last year

    Replacing Drai with whoever on RW will impact those RW numbers.

  12. Cassandra says:

    Another way of thinking of replacement level is to ask who is the best player not in the NHL who was more or less freely available in the offseason (so no prospects).

    If you go by pts/game in the AHL that gives you this list (if you could run the same list just at ES you would get a better list)

    Anton Lander
    Kenny Agostino
    Taylor Beck
    Cory Conacher

    This is what a replacement level player looks like.

    Over his last three seasons in the NHL Conacher scored 33 pts in 105 games while playing 12 minutes a night. Raise the playing time to 18 minutes and put it over 82 games and you get a 39 pt player.

    So rough estimate of replacement level for a first line winger (18 minutes a night) is about 40 points. If that player is playing with McDavid you would expect them to score more.

  13. frjohnk says:

    dustrock: We are giving the best player in the world less than he deserves.

    Thats why we will most likely see Drai as McDavids winger for most of the year.

  14. Cameron says:

    I think there may be a lack of clarity in the question itself. Are we looking for what the ‘replacement level’ winger is (Malone seems right), or ‘Replacement level 1st line RW’, which is a different animal entirely.

  15. OriginalPouzar says:

    I just don’t know what to do on the right side but I would like the Yamamoto experiment to be over because, in my mind, he’s not done enough to warrant an extended stay in Edmonton.

    For crying out loud, the question is if he can provide replacement level offence on McDavid’s right wing – if that’s the question, is there any argument that the teenager should be in the NHL this season given contract implications?

    While he is still here, assuming Drai is back, I would like to see Kailer on 2RW or 3RW to see if he can contribute away from McDavid.

    I’m not ready to lift Puljijarvi out of Bakersfield yet but I’m starting to convince myself that maybe, given the lack of an offensive center and the lack of offensive talent generally, that the Bake isn’t the right place for his development. His boxcars are middling and his shot numbers dwindling – granted its only be 5 games. I believe his boxcars would improve in the NHL – is it the right move?

    Is it possible that the AHL can stunt the development of a teenager (that we know has some offensive acumen) due to the lack of overall offensive talent on the team?

    Whatever McLellan decides to do with McDavid’s right wing over the next stretch, if its not going to be Drai, whether is Slep or JP, I would like him to give it a stretch of games – I’m talking 5 plus games -before he gets the blender out.

    I would like to see some consistency to the lines as I think the constant shuffling on all the lines is creating issues.

  16. russ99 says:

    I’m really looking forward to when we finally acquire McDavid’s RW shooter. I don’t see him on the roster or system at this point.

    Would fix a lot of ails: More goals, more space for McDavid, Leon driving the second line, Nuge back to 3C, Strome at RW permanently, more secondary scoring.

    Not sure what it would take to get done, probably something painful, but it seems like a necessity this year.

  17. digger50 says:

    As was stated yesterday, a 40 point season from Yamamoto would be personal success for the player but a failure for the organization. Yet here we are on the edge.

    In similar thinking Yamamoto’s 40 points should be replaceable by others on the roster. Should be, but far from certain.

    The 60 point replacement player “winger” is not on the roster.

    McDavid will not score 100 points with two 40 point wingers.

    I think your reasoning is sound and This brings us full circle. Draisaitl on right wing.

  18. Cassandra says:

    Small mistake in the Conacher calculations, I had his real toi as 12 when it is over 13. Make that change and he becomes a 36 pt player.

    Ran same calculations for Agostino and got a 37 pt player.

    With Beck and you get a 30 pt player.

    Another good example of a replacement level player is Marc Arcobello. Prorate his NHL numbers to first line playing time and you get a 44 pt player.

    Now I am cherry picking, some replacement level guys will do worse, while few will do better so your baseline would be lower, especially if you chose your replacement level player poorly (Brad Malone isn’t going to score 40 points).

  19. Cassandra says:

    Cameron:
    I think there may be a lack of clarity in the question itself. Are we looking for what the ‘replacement level’ winger is (Malone seems right), or ‘Replacement level 1st line RW’, which is a different animal entirely.

    There is no such position as first line RW, hence replacement level 1st line RW means a replacement player given first line minutes. It doesn’t mean what would Zach Kassian do on the first line.

  20. frjohnk says:

    Cameron: Are we looking for what the ‘replacement level’ winger is (Malone seems right), or ‘Replacement level 1st line RW

    we are looking for a replacement level right winger for McDavid

  21. Kinger_Oil.redux says:

    OriginalPouzar,

    – I agree re: Kailer, but he’s likely to pot a few in the next few games: law of averages

    – Perversely best outcome for the organization is to not have him score and make the choice easy

    – I’d be very surprised and dissapointed if they did have him here beyond 9 games: I thought we had moved away from that. We will see after the Dallas game….

    – Everyone scores against Pittsburgh it seems: Kailer on a line with McD, playing against Crosby…

    – Send Kailer back, let Cags and Drai come back, then bring up pool later.

  22. digger50 says:

    Assume we land on Drai back to right wing. Again, great success for the player, not so much for the organization.

    I think we may still have just enough left for a decent second line.

    Are the Rest of the forwards are close to replacement level?

  23. Cassandra says:

    Cassandra: There is no such position as first line RW, hence replacement level 1st line RW means a replacement player given first line minutes.It doesn’t mean what would Zach Kassian do on the first line.

    Though if you prorate Kassian’s pts to first line minutes you get 37 pts/game just like the top AHL scorers.

    There are more players who could play in the NHL than there are NHL jobs.

    If you look you should be able to find someone capable of putting up 35-40 points, more if a significant portion of that is on the power play.

  24. Pouzar says:

    Kinger_Oil.redux: Send Kailer back, let Cags and Drai come back, then bring up pool later.

    I also think that having Kai up is preventing a reasonable audition for the RW spot. Does anyone think Slepy/Kassian/Nuge would look out of place up there? I don’t. Let’s give then a chance first.

  25. zatch says:

    I asked this the other day, but had something come up and I had to abandon the thread.

    DOES ANYONE KNOW WHERE I CAN FIND SEASON BY SEASON TOTALS FOR GOALS, ASSISTS AND GAMES FOR THE ENTIRETY OF THE NHL, I.E. IN YEAR XX-XX+1 THERE WERE 1200GP, 7000 GOALS SCORED, 11000 ASSISTS.

    This SEEMS like it should be much easier to find than it is.

  26. OriginalPouzar says:

    Bob Stauffer‏Verified account @Bob_Stauffer 5m5 minutes ago
    More
    Drake Caggiula is flying around at Oilers practice. My guess is he returns tomorrow vs Pittsburgh

  27. OriginalPouzar says:

    Benson has been returned to the Giants and will practice tomorrow – great news there.

  28. OriginalPouzar says:

    Kinger_Oil.redux:
    OriginalPouzar,

    – I agree re: Kailer, but he’s likely to pot a few in the next few games: law of averages

    – Perversely best outcome for the organization is to not have him score and make the choice easy

    – I’d be very surprised and dissapointed if they did have him here beyond 9 games: I thought we had moved away from that.We will see after the Dallas game….

    – Everyone scores against Pittsburgh it seems: Kailer on a line with McD, playing against Crosby…

    – Send Kailer back, let Cags and Drai come back, then bring up pool later.

    Agreed – its also makes sense to send Yamo away to open up the roster spot for the return of both Drake and Drai.

  29. anjinsan says:

    I’m afraid Mr. Chiarelli has plumb spent too much and boxed himself in. He can sell off future picks; that’s about it. But if the Oilers regress and are back in the lottery mix and win the lottery again…Dahlin would be an awful loss.

  30. gregsaint says:

    dustrock We are giving the best player in the world less than he deserves.

    He’ll have to get used to it, with his cap hit.

  31. frjohnk says:

    digger50:
    Assume we land on Drai back to right wing. Again, great success for the player, not so much for the organization.

    I think we may still have just enough left for a decent second line.

    Are the Rest of the forwards are close to replacement level?

    With Drai with McDavid we probably have the best 1st line in the league Some would argue about Tampas 1st line.

    Our 2nd line would be Nuge at center, Lucic at LW, Strome at RW. While they have had moments of good things happening, the opposite has also happened. But Lucic has not really scored well with RNH since Lucic became an Oiler. Well actually

    Lucic with our 4 most likely to his centers since he became an Oiler

    Center TOI
    Connor McDavid 455
    Leon Draisaitl 211
    Ryan Nugent-Hopkins 507
    Mark Letestu 53

    Lucic with Pts/60
    Connor McDavid 1.45
    Leon Draisaitl 1.14
    Ryan Nugent-Hopkins 1.18
    Mark Letestu 0.00

    ( Some of McDavids and Draisitl TOI with Lucic are overlapping, as Lucic played a bunch of time with McDavid AND Draisaitl at the same time.

    Lucics 5 on 5 scoring with everybody have been less than underwhelming

    Maybe try Lucic-Strome- Kassian (if Strome does not play RW on 2nd line), as a third line against softer opposition with a bigger Ozone push.

    Whatever the case, McDavid and Drai on 1 line, most likely means not much offense from the other 3 lines, unless some of the young guns take a big step forward

  32. stush18 says:

    Oilers should have grabbed mantha a few years ago when holland was calling him out in public after he had broken his leg.

    He would be a great addition to mcdavids wing

  33. Jordan says:

    “Kailer Yamamoto is on pace for a 40-point season, that seems low for a ‘replacement level’ player at this spot in the order. Agree?”

    If by replacement level you mean “any NHL RWer could produce 40 points on McDavid’s wing for a year, then yes.

    Is it success if we have a replacement level winger on Connor’s wing this year?

    No, it’s not. Especially when that player is on an entry-level deal and could burn an unnecessary year of organizational control for the Oilers.

    It’s terrible management.

    The fact that the team’s 1st round pick from this past draft is their best bet for 1RW speaks to a significant injury and the dearth or skilled wingers in the Oilers system.

    I would rather Kassian play 1RW right now than Yammer. Why? He’s better than replacement level, and can cycle the puck, which gives Connor more opportunity to score. Having Kailer on Connor’s line (while sometimes creating some nice chances) is in my opinion costing the Oilers more by consistently having the line lose position when the oposition wins a battle with the young winger and the puck is moved out of the offensive zone.

    I won’t lament the decisions made to ship out all of the other skilled wingers this team had. It’s done. What I will say is that the team needed to address that issue, and it has not. Leon is an option for the wing not because it’s where the team wants him, but because they don’t have any other decent options.

    This team went into the season with lot of question marks up front, and so far they aren’t answering the bell, Beyond Connor, Leon, and sometimes Nuge, this team doesn’t offense consistently.

    It’s easy enough to suggest the Oilers are losing because of injuries.

    It’s just as easy to say they’re losing because of management decisions not to acquire functional NHL depth and instead the team elected to bank on the department of youth. Returns so far have been poor.

  34. Pouzar says:

    So much for getting Niemi tomorrow.

  35. OriginalPouzar says:

    The Oilers have been missing Drai, Slepy and Drake for most of the season – yes Slep has played but he clearly wasn’t up to speed until the last few games.

    It looks like Drake is back tomorrow and Slepy is now up to speed.

    The real experiment on which youngster will step up and take control of a top 6 RW spot is about to start (assuming no additional injuries to eff everything up).

    This was the plan – to hopefully have a youngster (or two) step up to a top 6 RW role – they haven’t had a chance to do so with injury and a generally watered down lineup.

    The forwards are getting healthy which will create more balance through the lineup and lead to the experiment to start.

    Come on Drake, Anton or Ryan – someone take control of that RW spot.

  36. McSorley33 says:

    russ99,

    I’m really looking forward to when we finally acquire McDavid’s RW shooter. I don’t see him on the roster or system at this point.

    *******************************************************************************************
    We are in trouble as an org then…we just drafted not one, but 2 RW, in the first round …of the last 2 NHL entry drafts.

    I suspect management firmly expects one of them to play alongside McDavid.

    The rub is both are not ready – no fault on them.

    Do we have the patience to wait for them to surely develop?

    As you mention, a trade would come at the most painful cost.

    This seems to confirm for the people in here arguing for a stop gap UFA RW….

    As Pouzar mentions, once Kailer is sent down, we can have an audtion with
    Sleppy, Kass or even Cags.

  37. McSorley33 says:

    frjohnk,

    Center TOI
    Connor McDavid 455
    Leon Draisaitl 211
    Ryan Nugent-Hopkins 507
    Mark Letestu 53
    Lucic with Pts/60
    Connor McDavid 1.45
    Leon Draisaitl 1.14
    Ryan Nugent-Hopkins 1.18
    Mark Letestu 0.00

    ****************************************************************
    Great work……

    Looch and Nuge facing Connor’s leftovers….and getting paid big time to do it.

    Leon for 2C please.

  38. Snowman says:

    Pouzar: I also think that having Kai up is preventing a reasonable audition for the RW spot. Does anyone think Slepy/Kassian/Nuge would look out of place up there? I don’t. Let’s give then a chance first.

    I don’t think Slepy-Nuge-Kass is a good line unless its your third line. If this is what you’re going for

    19-97-18
    27-29-91
    58-93-44

    Than I’m ok with it but don’t expect Nuge’s line to be scoring much.

    If you’re going for

    19-97-29
    58-93-44
    27-18-91

    as your top two lines that isn’t good enough and I’m not convinced of Strome as a center and I don’t think you get much scoring from either the 2nd or 3rd line.

  39. OriginalPouzar says:

    Drai has taken multiple shifts with the top line and PP1.

    Great sign for his insertion in to the lineup tomorrow.

  40. OriginalPouzar says:

    This is more apt for last night’s thread but Nick Ellis was named AHL player of the week.

  41. OriginalPouzar says:

    Draisaitl & Caggiula questionable for tomorrow, McLellan “anticipates” they’ll be cleared, but no guarantees.

  42. anjinsan says:

    After 7 games Kris Russell is the 3rd leading scorer for the Oilers with 1-2-3, -2!
    Is that priceless or what?
    My point is not anti Oilers. I have dearly loved the Oilers since they marauded by playing brilliant hockey my home town Blackhawks the year they lost to the Islanders in the finals.
    My point is anti Chiarelli, penny wise and pound very foolish.

  43. Dustylegnd says:

    gregsaint:
    dustrock We are giving the best player in the world less than he deserves.

    He’ll have to get used to it, with his cap hit.

    The Cap problem does not lay at the feet of McDavid…it lays at the feet of Lucic and RNH……$12 mill dollars for piss poor 5 v 5 production is a devastating miscalculation

    Yes, we all love Nuge, he is skilled and a plus skater and wonderful person who has evolved as a defensive forward and face off man….but for 6 mill we need 60 points and 25 goals out of this dude…somebody has to score goals…an entire team of pass first guys ends poorly

    Stauffer can wax on about the difference Lucic has made, holding teammates accountable, his leadership, and making his mates feel safe on the ice….but at the end of the day he is not value for the money….not even close….

    the game has evolved and left him 1 step back……only 5 more years of Lucic though and I am sure his skating will improve as he moves into his 30’s …. he trained with with Terrel Owens this past summer correct? perhaps next summer he can train with Kobe in LA…good lord!!!

  44. Cassandra says:

    anjinsan:
    After 7 games Kris Russell is the 3rd leading scorer for the Oilers with 1-2-3, -2!
    Is that priceless or what?
    My point is not anti Oilers.I have dearly loved the Oilers since they marauded by playing brilliant hockey my home town Blackhawks the year they lost to the Islanders in the finals.
    My point is anti Chiarelli, penny wise and pound very foolish.

    Completely agree.

    Last season in the fall when the Oilers were winning and everyone was happy, I was complaining because the Oilers weren’t scoring enough goals. They were 8th in the league at the time and to everyone else 8th in the league meant good. But if you have Connor McDavid on your team being 8th in the league in goals scored isn’t good enough. They should be first.

    So last year, with a killer power play and Draisatl taking a big step forward, the Oilers were 8th in the league in goals scored. They should have been better.

    This year they are 30th. 30th!

    This is what happens when you bleed skill with every transaction. When you trade Taylor Hall for a defensive defenseman, when you trade Jordan Eberle for a guy that scored 8 goals two years ago, 13 in his bounce back season.

    The percentages will rebound some, I am sure, but it is a bit rich to have the same people who constantly harped on shot quality now turn to the other side simply because it helps their argument.

  45. OriginalPouzar says:

    Pouzar:
    So much for getting Niemi tomorrow.

    I wonder if Vegas will be interested.

  46. vinotintazo says:

    Dustylegnd: but for 6 mill we need 60 points and 25 goals out of this

    So if he only gets 45 points and 15-20 Goals we have to get rid of this bum!
    This makes no sense.

    His replacement, if decent will cost 4M + I’d rather keep Nuge and lose Maroon or trade someone else.

  47. Chachi says:

    Might be a little early for the hate train to take a victory lap 7 games into an 82 game season. Fill your boots, I guess, but that’s not very mathy.

  48. Professor Q says:

    Maybe Edmonton could whisper to Spokane to trade for Benson, to play with Yamamoto? Or would that be too much stress on Benson during his recovery?

  49. frjohnk says:

    Jason Gregor‏Verified account @JasonGregor 7m7 minutes ago

    McLellan says he anticipates return of Draisaitl and Caggiula.
    No question I play 29 with 97.

  50. leadfarmer says:

    Cassandra: Completely agree.

    Last season in the fall when the Oilers were winning and everyone was happy, I was complaining because the Oilers weren’t scoring enough goals.They were 8th in the league at the time and to everyone else 8th in the league meant good.But if you have Connor McDavid on your team being 8th in the league in goals scored isn’t good enough.They should be first.

    So last year, with a killer power play and Draisatl taking a big step forward, the Oilers were 8th in the league in goals scored.They should have been better.

    This year they are 30th.30th!

    This is what happens when you bleed skill with every transaction.When you trade Taylor Hall for a defensive defenseman, when you trade Jordan Eberle for a guy that scored 8 goals two years ago, 13 in his bounce back season.

    The percentages will rebound some, I am sure, but it is a bit rich to have the same people who constantly harped on shot quality now turn to the other side simply because it helps their argument.

    Point taken but to might want to look at Eberles goal total with Tavares.

  51. Dustylegnd says:

    vinotintazo,

    It makes perfect sense, especially if you believe a replacement level player is equivalent to 40 points per year (as discussed above)

    Nuge gets 2nd line centre ice time and 2nd Unit PP time, he also gets $6 million per year
    if Nuge’s expected production is 15-20 goals and 45 points, absolutely it makes sense to move on from this player because the community seems to agree 40 points is easily replaceable for a lot less money

    Players like Kucherov at $4.7 mill for 2 more years and Braydon Point at < 700k for 2 more years is mind boggling Value for the Lightning…..

    In this cap era, jewels have to be unearthed or you will never compete…..the lack of Draft success is the anchor attached to the Oils achilles tendon…..

    we pay full Value for all contracts, we bleed talent with each subsequent trade, replace tangibles with intangibles and then wonder why we are struggling

    The definition of insanity is repeating the same behaviour and expecting a different outcome

  52. LMHF#1 says:

    Any more MTL talk?

    Something around Gallagher, Galchenyuk and Petry would be interesting right about now.

  53. Chaos Magician says:

    zatch:
    I asked this the other day, but had something come up and I had to abandon the thread.

    DOES ANYONE KNOW WHERE I CAN FIND SEASON BY SEASON TOTALS FOR GOALS, ASSISTS AND GAMES FOR THE ENTIRETY OF THE NHL, I.E. IN YEAR XX-XX+1 THERE WERE 1200GP, 7000 GOALS SCORED, 11000 ASSISTS.

    This SEEMS like it should be much easier to find than it is.

    Corey Pronman has spreadsheets here: http://www.hockeyabstract.com/testimonials

    Last year
    GP – 44274
    G – 6704
    A – 11239

  54. vinotintazo says:

    all I’m saying for 1-2M Savings I’m not getting rid of Nuge. I’d rather keep him

    Dustylegnd: we pay full Value for all contracts, we bleed talent with each subsequent trade, replace tangibles with intangibles and then wonder why we are struggling

    Disagree again here, Kelfbom, Larsson and Talbot’s contract at least are value contracts.

  55. OriginalPouzar says:

    McDavid’s current contract is a value contract (ELC parameters).

    Maroon’s current contract is a value contract (not signed by Chiarelli but 1/4 of it is being paid by ANA).

  56. Clay says:

    I’m on board for a Kassian extended audition at 1RW. Right now it seems the McD line is only dangerous off the rush. With Maroon and Kass on the wings, that’s enough beef to control the play down low, and perhaps hem teams in more. Plus, Kassian is sneaky fast, so he can keep up(ish) when the jailbreaks occur.

    #freekassian

  57. Dustylegnd says:

    vinotintazo:
    all I’m saying for 1-2M Savings I’m not getting rid of Nuge. I’d rather keep him

    Disagree again here, Kelfbom, Larsson and Talbot’s contract at least are value contracts.

    well since the glass is half full, don’t forget about Maroon’s contract, it’s the best value of them all

  58. zatch says:

    Chaos Magician,

    While this has some useful things, I’m looking to look at the entire history of the league, back to 1917-18…

  59. vinotintazo says:

    Dustylegnd: well since the glass is half full, don’t forget about Maroon’s contract, it’s the best value of them all

    yes, I was trying to name a few.

  60. frjohnk says:

    zatch:
    Chaos Magician,

    While this has some useful things, I’m looking to look at the entire history of the league, back to 1917-18…

    https://www.hockey-reference.com/

    https://www.hockey-reference.com/leagues/

  61. HugThePost says:

    with MTL struggling and Galchenyuk seemingly in the doghouse, do we target him and try to buy low?

  62. OmJo says:

    leadfarmer: Point taken but to might want to look at Eberles goal total with Tavares.

    He’s 2pts back from the leading scorer(s) on NYI and would be third on our team in pts. He has 1 less goal than all of our RWs combined – 2 if you consider Drasiaitl as a RW.

  63. OriginalPouzar says:

    Samorukov on the “extended” roster for Russia for the CHL/Russia series.

    Not sure if there is a “main” roster with less players.

  64. Mike says:

    Hey LT, excellent piece. I know I rarely post (almost always on my phone.) But I wanted to address Matt benning and his concussion and the very real chance he is still suffering the effects of it.

    I am 31 and have had many concussions, unfortunately the doctors believe I have had at least 7. My entire life changed. The first moderate one I got in grade 11 playing rugby and I got intentionally elbowed to the face after the the play was dead. I was intentionally targeted by the opposition. Anyway, I was taken to the hospital and I didn’t know the day or month or almost anything that was asked. My condition did not improve. I had a equilibrium issue in my ears so I walked like a drink for at least a month. Started having black outs/fainting spells. They took my license, and couldn’t finish the school year. While trying to read was impossible everything blurred together and caused intense pain. I was in bed for 18- 20 hours a day in the dark. Over time things got better and started school the next year so approximately 6 months later. I struggled to concentrate, I lost the ability to asses situations as quickly or as reliably. This was a cross the board from sports to school to social interactions. Felt withdrawn, depressed, lacked the confidence that I once had. Also it came with the feeling that you where unable solutions to problems as quickly. It took me a year before I felt somewhat like I did before the injury. Subsequently the following years I suffered from more concussions and I can truly say that, some of my mild concussions where I didn’t have any amnesia or moderate physical problems. Basically one where outwardly you seemed relatively normal. That being said I certainly noticed my brain responded with a fog where I felt okay and got the okay from doctors after cat scans ECT. But I wasn’t ok, it changed the way I acted and thought. I strongly believe that in the near future (I hope) medical scanning scanning will improve and we will start to see signs of CTE and other types of damage to the brain and be able to realistically asses the extent of the injury and whether that person is actually healthy. As opposed to a system where it’s mostly diagnosed based on what the patient explains to the doctor, which considering that it’s a head injury the patient might not be aware they have whole set of problematic symptoms So it’s a guessing game combined with technology that doesn’t show the brain in enough detail to decipher other physical injuries to the brain. So yes I believe 100% that M.Benning could be suffering the effects of the concussion long after he was cleared. My apologies for the poorly written wall of text. But I had to mention that this is a serious issue that needs to be attacked by everyone- doctors fans friends everyone. We can’t afford to be idle anymore. How many people’s lives, need be drastically affected or worse before we do something?

  65. Mr. D. says:

    I agree to a point. McDavid needs beef in the corners and Kass and Maroon are quick enough. McD is also one of the best setup men in the league. Is Kass enough of a FINISHER? I think not. Its a give and take.

    Clay:
    I’m on board for a Kassian extended audition at 1RW.Right now it seems the McD line is only dangerous off the rush.With Maroon and Kass on the wings, that’s enough beef to control the play down low, and perhaps hem teams in more.Plus, Kassian is sneaky fast, so he can keep up(ish) when the jailbreaks occur.

    #freekassian

  66. OriginalPouzar says:

    Clay:
    I’m on board for a Kassian extended audition at 1RW.Right now it seems the McD line is only dangerous off the rush.With Maroon and Kass on the wings, that’s enough beef to control the play down low, and perhaps hem teams in more.Plus, Kassian is sneaky fast, so he can keep up(ish) when the jailbreaks occur.

    #freekassian

    I am of the opposite view and want to keep Kass in the bottom six, in particular on the 4th line.

    Its not that he doesn’t have more offence in him, however, my fear has come to fruition (from my eyes) in the games where he’s been moved up the lineup – he loses a bit of what has made him successful when he plays up the ice – his speed on the forecheck, his aggressiveness, causing turnovers, etc.

    He is at his best when he is playing his game on the 4th line and his presence on the fourth line makes the line much more material and gives the coach the ability to put it out there for a regular shift and have the potential for it to create energy and be a positive line.

  67. zatch says:

    frjohnk,

    Believe it or not, that site doesn’t do it as well. In the end I manually did it over the course of like…4 hours. Insanely quiet day at work at least.

  68. who says:

    OriginalPouzar: I am of the opposite view and want to keep Kass in the bottom six, in particular on the 4th line.

    Its not that he doesn’t have more offence in him, however, my fear has come to fruition (from my eyes) in the games where he’s been moved up the lineup – he loses a bit of what has made him successful when he plays up the ice – his speed on the forecheck, his aggressiveness, causing turnovers, etc.

    He is at his best when he is playing his game on the 4th line and his presence on the fourth line makes the line much more material and gives the coach the ability to put it out there for a regular shift and have the potential for it to create energy and be a positive line.

    I don’t think you put players on the fourth line because they make the fourth line better. You put them there because they are not good enough to play, or don’t fit, anywhere else.
    The traditional fourth line winger gets the least amount of ice time on the team. Is this the best use of Kassian s talents.
    If we take your logic to the extreme we should play Macdavid on the fourth line cause he would make the fourth line better.

  69. Cassandra says:

    If we take the average of Arcobello and Conacher you get 40 pts as your replacement level season for a player that gets some power play time, plays 18 min/game, and plays the full season.

    Ryan Strome, by that same criteria, is a 47.5 point player. Which means he is 7.5 points above replacement.

    RNH is a 52 point player. 12 points above replacement.

    I’m not sure what replacement players get paid these days, but if we assume 900K, that means that the Oilers are paying about 430K per marginal point gained from RNH.

    In comparison, McDavid is an 84 pt player, at 12.5 million, that is 264 K per marginal point gained. Excellent value in comparison to RNH.

    Draisatl is a 66.5 pt player, at 8.5 million that is 286 K per marginal point gained.

    And that is how replacement value can help you make good decisions.

    For interest sake, over the last three years Hall is a 60 pt player, which gives 260 K per marginal point gained.

    Draisatl’s contract doesn’t look so bad this way. So for RNH to be worth his contract he has to make up, in some tangible way, the difference in value he is giving away on the offensive side of the puck.

  70. GMB3 says:

    Dustylegnd:
    vinotintazo,

    It makes perfect sense, especially if you believe a replacement level player is equivalent to 40 points per year (as discussed above)

    Nuge gets 2nd line centre ice time and 2nd Unit PP time, he also gets $6 million per year
    if Nuge’s expected production is 15-20 goals and 45 points, absolutely it makes sense to move on from this player because the community seems to agree 40 points is easily replaceable for a lot less money

    Players like Kucherov at $4.7 mill for 2 more years and Braydon Point at < 700k for 2 more years is mind boggling Value for the Lightning…..

    In this cap era, jewels have to be unearthed or you will never compete…..the lack of Draft success is the anchor attached to the Oils achilles tendon…..

    we pay full Value for all contracts, we bleed talent with each subsequent trade, replace tangibles with intangibles and then wonder why we are struggling

    The definition of insanity is repeating the same behaviour and expecting a different outcome

    You are mistaken, and are contradicting yourself. You argue Chia trades tangibles for intangibles yet you think we should trade a proven 45-50 point two way center who is 24 because you think you can find a 40 point second line center for cheap because you truly believe that’s what a “replacement level” player is?

    This just moments after you say the contracts given to McDavid and Drai, then you preach about Nikita Kucherovs value deal?

    This is ridiculous

  71. GMB3 says:

    Cassandra:
    If we take the average of Arcobello and Conacher you get 40 pts as your replacement level season for a player that gets some power play time, plays 18 min/game, and plays the full season.

    Ryan Strome, by that same criteria, is a 47.5 point player.Which means he is 7.5 points above replacement.

    RNH is a 52 point player.12 points above replacement.

    I’m not sure what replacement players get paid these days, but if we assume 900K, that means that the Oilers are paying about 430K per marginal point gained from RNH.

    In comparison, McDavid is an 84 pt player, at 12.5 million, that is 264 K per marginal point gained.Excellent value in comparison to RNH.

    Draisatl is a 66.5 pt player, at 8.5 million that is 286 K per marginal point gained.

    And that is how replacement value can help you make good decisions.

    For interest sake, over the last three years Hall is a 60 pt player, which gives 260 K per marginal point gained.

    Draisatl’s contract doesn’t look so bad this way.So for RNH to be worth his contract he has to make up, in some tangible way, the difference in value he is giving away on the offensive side of the puck.

    There are flaws in this argument. QoC, QoL, all these things make differences. If Cory Conacher was capable of putting up 40 points while getting top 6 minutes, he would be in the NHL. Baseball also attributes defensive ability in calculating WAR.

    There is such a huge gap between math and reality here.

  72. Cassandra says:

    Now all those comparisons were to RFA contracts. But if you are replacing RNH, you aren’t going to be replacing him with an RFA value contract, so better to compare him to a recent UFA contract.

    Most recent big ticket was Mikko Koivu, who is also a center and good defensively. Over the past three years he is a 51 pt player, who just signed for 5.5 million, giving a cost per marginal point of 419 K. Better than RNH but not that much better.

    So RNH isn’t great value in comparison to guys like Hall, McDavid, and Draisatl (or even Strome) but the Oilers might have a hard time replacing him nonetheless.

    But then you look at Bryan Little, a 58 pt player for 5.3 M, 239K per point. Great value.
    Ryan Johansen, basically a UFA, a 62 pt player for 8 M, 325 K per point.

    Replacement level. Great idea. Easy to use.

  73. giddy says:

    Feel free to take this as a grain of salt, but from my knowledge, Benning had multiple concussions during his time playing minor hockey in St. Albert, and it began to really affect his play during midget before he was drafted. Weary of going into corners against big guys, and his outlet passing being hindered because he was overly focused on opposing players catching him in a vulnerable position to lay a hit, rather than where his team mates were to make a good pass to. I believe it even got to the point that his family was beginning to consider the possibility of pulling him from hockey. Concussions, especially while the brain is developing, can have extremely frightening consequences.

    Might be similar to what we are seeing here. However, Benning played some fantastic hockey in the playoffs (if you ignore his first game against the Sharks), which was post-concussion. Even still, it’s certainly a worrying long term consideration of having a career ended early due to concussion related problems. You never want to see that happen to anyone.

  74. Lowetide says:

    Mike:
    Hey LT, excellent piece. I know I rarely post (almost always on my phone.) But I wanted to address Matt benning and his concussion and the very real chance he is still suffering the effects of it.

    I am 31 and have had many concussions, unfortunately the doctors believe I have had at least 7. My entire life changed. The first moderate one I got in grade 11 playing rugby and I got intentionally elbowed to the face after the the play was dead. I was intentionally targeted by the opposition. Anyway, I was taken to the hospital and I didn’t know the day or month or almost anything that was asked. My condition did not improve. I had a equilibrium issue in my ears so I walked like a drink for at least a month. Started having black outs/fainting spells. They took my license, and couldn’t finish the school year. While trying to read was impossible everything blurred together and caused intense pain. I was in bed for 18- 20 hours a day in the dark. Over time things got better and started school the next year so approximately 6 months later. I struggled to concentrate, I lost the ability to asses situations as quickly or as reliably. This was a cross the board from sports to school to social interactions. Felt withdrawn, depressed, lacked the confidence that I once had. Also it came with the feeling that you where unable solutions to problems as quickly. It took me a year before I felt somewhat like I did before the injury. Subsequently the following years I suffered from more concussions and I can truly say that, some of my mild concussions where I didn’t have any amnesia or moderate physical problems. Basically one where outwardly you seemed relatively normal. That being said I certainly noticed my brain responded with a fog where I felt okay and got the okay from doctors after cat scans ECT. But I wasn’t ok, it changed the way I acted and thought. I strongly believe that in the near future (I hope) medical scanning scanning will improve and we will start to see signs of CTE and other types of damage to the brain and be able to realistically asses the extent of the injury and whether that person is actually healthy. As opposed to a system where it’s mostly diagnosed based on what the patient explains to the doctor, which considering that it’s a head injury the patient might not be aware they have whole set of problematic symptoms So it’s a guessing game combined with technology that doesn’t show the brain in enough detail to decipher other physical injuries to the brain. So yes I believe 100% that M.Benning could be suffering the effects of the concussion long after he was cleared. My apologies for the poorly written wall of text. But I had to mention that this is a serious issue that needs to be attacked by everyone- doctors fans friends everyone. We can’t afford to be idle anymore. How many people’s lives, need be drastically affected or worse before we do something?

    Mike, This is a fantastic post. I want to thank you for it, great personal insight and gives us an idea about what ‘recovery’ sometimes looks like.

  75. Cassandra says:

    GMB3: There are flaws in this argument. QoC, QoL, all these things make differences. If Cory Conacher was capable of putting up 40 points while getting top 6 minutes, he would be in the NHL. Baseball also attributes defensive ability in calculating WAR.

    There is such a huge gap between math and reality here.

    There are refinements, yes, but Conacher absolutely could put up 40 pts playing top 6 minutes. We know this with virtual certainty. As it is he scored 33 pts per 82 games while playing 13 minutes a night. The competition would go up, sure, but so would the quality of his teammates. That’s a wash. If anything 40 pts is underselling what he would do.

    Conacher’s problem is a 40 pt season, while playing 18 minutes a night with powerplay time isn’t good enough.

  76. Lowetide says:

    GMB3: There are flaws in this argument. QoC, QoL, all these things make differences. If Cory Conacher was capable of putting up 40 points while getting top 6 minutes, he would be in the NHL. Baseball also attributes defensive ability in calculating WAR.

    There is such a huge gap between math and reality here.

    “Replacement player” on a skill line is probably best defined as someone who has played in the NHL recently and is established as being capable at that level. Jason Gregor mentioned Michael Grabner on the Lowdown today, that for me is a really good player to use. Too many variables on a player like Conacher, who may have eroded since leaving the NHL (an 11-game look last year aside).

  77. leadfarmer says:

    OmJo: He’s 2pts back from the leading scorer(s) on NYI and would be third on our team in pts. He has 1 less goal than all of our RWs combined – 2 if you consider Drasiaitl as a RW.

    Well he’s top 10 paid RW in the game and he’s getting paid to score. He’s not scoring and he’s on pace for a 40 point season on Tavares’ wing

  78. Jordan says:

    Mike,

    Hey Mike,

    Thanks so much for sharing your story about your history with Concussions. I was pretty lucky with my history in contact sports, in that my injuries were very minor.

    My brother had real issues with concussions dating back to a biking accident in primary school. Helmet wasn’t on properly and after he hit the cement, he couldn’t see. Concussions weren’t a thing back then, but his brain healed slowly and he got into hockey, which he played until he couldn’t anymore, partially due to chronic concussions. The changes in thought process, language and speaking style, emotional processing and personality as a whole is really hard to understand. As a brother, I can say I didn’t understand it and didn’t take the time to understand it like I needed to. I hope that your family has been supportive and if you haven’t fully recovered yet, hope you do soon.

    With regards to Matt Benning, I don’t know if it’s concussion related or not, but I sure hope that either way he recovers. If it is concussion related, I really hope he stops playing until he’s healthy. The only thing worse than getting a shot and missing it is getting a shot, missing it, and suffering a debilitating injury that you may never recover from.

    My only other comment is I disagree with your choice of language. Concussions cannot be attacked. They are most often the results of someone being attacked while playing a game that is supposed to be in good fun. Concussions need to be revered. Our brains are incredibly resilient, but that doesn’t mean they aren’t fragile. We need to take great care of our greymatter.

    At some point we may be able to replcae it like so many other parts of our bodies, but… right now it’s one and done. I don’t think any of us want that one to be undone.

  79. Chachi says:

    leadfarmer: Well he’s top 10 paid RW in the game and he’s getting paid to score.He’s not scoring and he’s on pace for a 40 point season on Tavares’ wing

    After scoring a hat trick in his final regular season game with the Oilers, Eberle hasn’t scored a goal in 21 games if you include the playoffs. He has taken 43 shots in that stretch of games without scoring a goal. Given his track record he is way overdue for a correction, but talk about a cold streak. Even Cory Conacher would have scored at least 1 goal in that time frame.

  80. GMB3 says:

    Cassandra: There are refinements, yes, but Conacher absolutely could put up 40 pts playing top 6 minutes.We know this with virtual certainty.As it is he scored 33 pts per 82 games while playing 13 minutes a night.The competition would go up, sure, but so would the quality of his teammates.That’s a wash.If anything 40 pts is underselling what he would do.

    Conacher’s problem is a 40 pt season, while playing 18 minutes a night with powerplay time isn’t good enough.

    Didn’t we see Arcobello play top 6 minutes in Edmonton? Or get the oppprtunity to be a “replacement level” player for Edmonton yet fail to make the grade?

  81. leadfarmer says:

    Chachi: After scoring a hat trick in his final regular season game with the Oilers, Eberle hasn’t scored a goal in 21 games if you include the playoffs. He has taken 43 shots in that stretch of games without scoring a goal. Given his track record he is way overdue for a correction, but talk about a cold streak. Even Cory Conacher would have scored at least 1 goal in that time frame.

    Strome was definitely not the solution but Eberle at 6 mil was definitely a problem. He used to be able to outskate the bigger players that would just push him off the puck. Now that the game is faster he just gets steered to the low percentage areas or gets robbed blind

  82. GMB3 says:

    Lowetide: “Replacement player” on a skill line is probably best defined as someone who has played in the NHL recently and is established as being capable at that level. Jason Gregor mentioned Michael Grabner on the Lowdown today, that for me is a really good player to use.Too many variables on a player like Conacher, who may have eroded since leaving the NHL (an 11-game look last year aside).

    Yes that’s fine, but that’s not really what a replacement level player is in the MLB. There’s also many more variables at play in hockey.

    I understand your definition, but I don’t really see how the math can match the eye with Cassandra’s assessment of what a replacement level player is.

  83. Bag of Pucks says:

    OmJoHe has 1 less goal than all of our RWs combined – 2 if you consider Drasiaitl as a RW.

    That’s a long way to go to say Jordan Eberle has 0 goals.

  84. Lowetide says:

    GMB3: Yes that’s fine, but that’s not really what a replacement level player is in the MLB.

    Ah, replacement level definition has changed over the years. Carry on.

  85. jtblack says:

    OmJo,

    “Eberles goal total with Tavares.

    He’s 2pts back from the leading scorer(s) on NYI and would be third on our team in pts. He has 1 less goal than all of our RWs combined – 2 if you consider Drasiaitl as a RW.” …

    A mind is made up when you will argue that 0 Goals is OK by comparing it to other low performing wingers.

    Eberle might make it to 20 Goals; but if you refefence LT’s 5×5 scoring for Ebs ; you will spot a trend …. and it’s difficult to defend

  86. Decidedly Skeptical Fan says:

    Clay,

    Agreed. This is not a fourth line player. Everyone focuses on the physical side of Kassian’s game, for good reason, but Zack has both the wheels and soft hands necessary to play on McDavid’s line. Kassian is an opportunistic scorer and McDavid is the best on the planet at generating opportunities for his linemates … just ask Patrick Maroon.

    Two added benefits to consider as well. Signed long term so you don’t have to pay for the McDavid zooming effect (this by the way should be requisite criteria for playing on Connor’s line). Also, the opposition has to account for Kassian at all times if they want to survive the shift. Not a fun player to play against … you never know when he will have one of his defining moments. Combine the fear of McDavid with the pain from Kassian/Maroon and this may somewhat diminish the focus on Mcdavid over the course of the game, which can only result in good things on the scoreboard.

    Love this player type when he is on our team. Hate it when the other guys have him.

    #freekassian

  87. Cassandra says:

    Lowetide: “Replacement player” on a skill line is probably best defined as someone who has played in the NHL recently and is established as being capable at that level. Jason Gregor mentioned Michael Grabner on the Lowdown today, that for me is a really good player to use.Too many variables on a player like Conacher, who may have eroded since leaving the NHL (an 11-game look last year aside).

    This isn’t how Bill James defined it, nor how it has ever been used in baseball. A replacement level player is a theoretical construct. The point isn’t what Cory Conacher would do today, it is rather to identify the level of ability that is fungible. The Conacher and Arcobello’s of the world are designed to set the theoretical level. If 40 pts is too high, use 35, it isn’t going to matter a great deal in practice.

    But Michael Grabner is not a replacement level player unless you think that someone like Grabner is available every off season. Though, not incidentally, Grabner’s adjusted pts/82 games over the past three years is 39.

    In any case, used properly, your idea is a great one. It isn’t the points that anyone would have scored that matter. It is the marginal points, and by my reckoning it should be easy to find someone to score 35-40 pts if you give them 18 minutes a night and some power play time.

    This is also a good one way to compare the contribution of D and F, since the replacement level of offense for a D is going to be much lower than 40 points. Not taking this into account is one of Ricki’s essential mistakes.

  88. Cassandra says:

    GMB3: Didn’t we see Arcobello play top 6 minutes in Edmonton? Or get the oppprtunity to be a “replacement level” player for Edmonton yet fail to make the grade?

    Arcobello failing to make the grade was a 40 point player. This proves my point.

    By eye, Arcobello was a replacement level player.
    In 14.5 minutes a night, Arcobello was a 31 point player. Is it reasonable to suppose he would get no points in an extra 287 minutes.

    If you want to say replacement level is 35 points, fine I won’t quibble. But any way you cut it the eye and the math match up nicely. As they almost always do.

  89. Cassandra says:

    In his first season with the Oilers Linus Omark scored .5 pt/game while getting 15 minutes a night on a terrible team.

    If Linus Omark isn’t a replacement level player I don’t know what is.

    Which means if you aren’t scoring 40 pts a season if given the opportunity then your offense is below replacement level.

  90. OmJo says:

    Bag of Pucks: That’s a long way to go to say Jordan Eberle has 0 goals.

    jtblack:
    OmJo,

    “Eberles goal total with Tavares.

    He’s 2pts back from the leading scorer(s) on NYI and would be third on our team in pts. He has 1 less goal than all of our RWs combined – 2 if you consider Drasiaitl as a RW.” …

    A mind is made up when you will argue that 0 Goals is OK by comparing it to other low performing wingers.

    Eberle might make it to 20 Goals; but if you refefence LT’s 5×5 scoring for Ebs ; you will spot a trend …. and it’s difficult to defend

    Not saying his 0 goals is okay, just putting into context how the offense he produces is still better than what we’re currently getting from the current group of RWs on our roster. The fact his offense isn’t that good to begin with should be alarming.

    McDavid can only boost so many RWs at once.

  91. TheVengeFulOne says:

    Maybe we can acknowledge that hockey and baseball have little in common and the concept of a replacement level player is dumb in this context.

  92. Mike says:

    Jordan,

    Hello Jordan,

    Thank you for the kind words. I unfortunately have not gotten clear from my previous head injuries. I have extremely debilitating migraines and cluster headaches. But thankfully I have a very supportive family. But at times it is hard to understand from both the concussed persons side and close family members or friends. It’s something that I have an extremely hard time talking about. It’s been a source of immense depression with respect to the things I lost. I had a similar issue with chronic concussions. I didn’t graduate my science degree from UBC because I have not been able to finish 2 art electives…frustrating. went from easy to progressively more difficult for me to succeed in a classroom setting. It also with me at least, I had a hard time conveying how I felt about myself. A poor metaphor might be like trying to describe your image on a broken mirror. Some of your sensory experiences change which lead me to question whether what I felt was happening,was actually the case. I doubted myself. Which was compounded my doctors telling me that my concussion was over and that concussions didn’t cause things like depression and anxiety ECT. So I withdrew and kept to much inside and made things worse. With respect to your brother, I sincerely hope that he can recover more and maybe over time and as science advances we might learn techniques that could enable better recovery results. Along with what effect does multiple sub-conclusive hits to the head do to healthy person as opposed to someone who has a history of concussions? You seem like a very thoughtful and compassionate brother, I think that he knew you had his back when he was going through it all. Sometimes it is just being there even if you both didn’t completely understand the health issues ( as we are still in the dark ) he knew that he wasn’t climbing his mountain alone. He knew,he had you there if he slipped.

    When I said attack, it was a poor choose of words, I meant go after the causes or reasons concussions are happening and how do we limit it from happening to so many people from all walks of life. Whether that means rule changes in sports to educational projects so kids and parents are more aware of how they happen and to seek help immediately. My heart goes out to you and your brother, chronic neurological disorders are very much a family issue because of its far reaching effects on the patient and then having to watch someone you love suffer so much and not being able to jump in and help more is heart wrenching.

  93. Lowetide says:

    TheVengeFulOne:
    Maybe we can acknowledge that hockey and baseball have little in common and the concept of a replacement level player is dumb in this context.

    Oh, I would never do that. 🙂 It does appear the definition has changed, Kevin McReynolds 1991 would be a pretty smart example of the old definition of ‘replacement level’ which has since morphed.

  94. Pink Socks says:

    19-97-44
    27-93-29
    91-18-58
    36-55-26
    x- 24-16

    77-6
    25-83
    4-62
    x- 81

    Send 56 to Spokane, bring up JP later in the year. I think this is the optimal lineup. Malone has proven he belongs as a 13/14F, and I believe he is more useful than both 36 and 16.

  95. deardylan says:

    Mike,

    Incredible share Mike. Sometimes caught up in game of hockey that I forget about the game of life that people are struggling with. You reminded me and your words really made me feel and send some prayers of healing for the players who are dealing with concussions. Thank you.

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