Midnight Blue

I’m going to be tracking the Oilers young defensemen this season, likely once a week and maybe a bigger post mid-season and at the end of the year. I think it might be beneficial to go back in time and see about progress with previous AHL defensemen. I am using Eric Rodgers’ numbers, impossible to thank him enough.

BAKERSFIELD CONDORS 2014-15

  • These are the final nine games of Klefbom’s career outside the NHL and scream NHL-ready. Incredible really, he was about one point per game and a little over +1 EV GF-GA per game to match.At age 21, he was absolutely ready to move up. In the previous season, Klefbom was 48, 1-9-10 and -8, most of the club had negative numbers. I’ll probably refer to that 20-year old season a lot as we move through this year.
  • There were a bunch of 21-year old kids on this team, plus Jordan Oesterle who was 22.
  • Aside from Klefbom, the best GF-GA defender was Brandon Davidson (also +10). Dillon Simpson, +4, is also worthy of note.
  • Offensively, Klefbom, Hunt and Oesterle all rank as bona fide NHL prospects.

BAKERSFIELD CONDORS 2015-16

  • Brad Hunt, who is having some success in Vegas, showed well in Bakersfield during the year. His offense and the EV GF-GA show progress year over year.
  • Jordan Oesterle remains a player of promise offensively and improves slightly in GF-GA EV. He is matriculating toward being NHL-ready at this point.
  • Dillon Simpson continues to show solid results GF-GA and even improves offensively.
  • Darnell Nurse played just nine games but showed well compared to other prospects in the system.

BAKERSFIELD CONDORS 2016-17

  • Dillon Simpson continued his progress year over year, he’s impressive in his consistency.
  • Griffin Reinhart had good numbers, not a big offensive profile but held his own otherwise.
  • Ben Betker and David Musil had similar totals and are similar players.
  • Jordan Oesterle became the class of the group offensively with Brad Hunt’s exit.

BAKERSFIELD CONDORS 17-18

  • Ethan Bear is the early star in the group and it’s interesting to see how few players were regulars at age 20. It’s a long road ahead, but a nice start for Bear.
  • Dillon Simpson continues his march toward improving every season. He’s basically Borg.
  • Keegan Lowe is a new hire we’ll have to track him to see how he compares to Simpson.
  • Mantha, Paigin and Jones are in the red in GF-GA but these are early days.

WHAT DOES IT ALL MEAN?

It’s early days, but Ethan Bear’s numbers show him in a good light. I’m interested in seeing his progress and that of Caleb Jones, Ryan Mantha and Ziyat Paigin over this season. At 20, Oscar Klefbom was minus eight but there were other blue with even poorer numbers (here). We are just five games into the season, but will monitor these numbers closely over the winter and return to them at least a couple of times for updates. Once again, my sincere thanks to Eric Rodgers for his fine work.

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69 Responses to "Midnight Blue"

  1. OriginalPouzar says:

    Bears’ numbers are off the charts and Jones seems to be struggling a bit – a flip-flop from camp (not the Bear was struggling but he wasn’t as prominent as Jones in camp).

    The one thing to remember is that Bear has had the benefit of playing with the most NHL-ready and “veteran prospect” on the team in Dillon Simpson – I think that’s likely been a huge plus for him at ES.

  2. Pink Socks says:

    It sure would be nice to hit a home run with one of these mid-round D picks.

    2017
    Samorukov – looked great in camp, positive reviews and results so far in OHL
    Kemp – Relative unknown but USNDP is never a bad choice especially in later rounds

    2016
    Niemelainen – win some lose some, this isn’t looking good though
    Carins – see Niemelainen
    Berglund – From the sounds of it has significantly more responsibility, a good arrow

    2015
    Jones – early struggles but a good bet for 100 games
    Bear – early success, sky (Tyson Barrie-ish) is the limit
    Marino – looking forward to catch a Harvard game or two
    Paigin – Watched a bunch of his games in the KHL last few years, I hope he adjusts to NA ice because this is such an exciting prospect

    I was curious so looked it up. Since 2002, sans Nurse 7th overall, the only true success story is Petry. Peckham got in over 100 games, as did Chorney. Other than that it is a steaming mess. We’re due for one (or two) of these D prospects to become impact NHLers.

  3. npanciroli says:

    My favourite number here is Nikitin lol!

  4. MrFancypantss says:

    Well good day to you Sir! I see Shipachyov is seeking a trade from Vegas, could he help with our offensive struggles? Thanks for all the good work Lowetide!

  5. Lowetide says:

    npanciroli:
    My favourite number here is Nikitin lol!

    Hehe.. I didn’t need to include it, but I’m a dink. 🙂

  6. Lowetide says:

    MrFancypantss:
    Well good day to you Sir! I see Shipachyov is seeking a trade from Vegas, could he help with our offensive struggles? Thanks for all the good work Lowetide!

    His numbers in the KHL are fab, don’t know why it didn’t work out in Vegas. Speed? If he’s fast, we know he’s skilled and so maybe. Money of course is an issue. I don’t think the Oilers do it, the second year on the deal makes it impossible.

  7. OriginalPouzar says:

    Pink Socks:
    It sure would be nice to hit a home run with one of these mid-round D picks.

    2017
    Samorukov – looked great in camp, positive reviews and results so far in OHL
    Kemp – Relative unknown but USNDP is never a bad choice especially in later rounds

    2016
    Niemelainen – win some lose some, this isn’t looking good though
    Carins – see Niemelainen
    Berglund – From the sounds of it has significantly more responsibility, a good arrow

    2015
    Jones – early struggles but a good bet for 100 games
    Bear – early success, sky (Tyson Barrie-ish) is the limit
    Marino – looking forward to catch a Harvard game or two
    Paigin – Watched a bunch of his games in the KHL last few years, I hope he adjusts to NA ice because this is such an exciting prospect

    I was curious so looked it up.Since 2002, sans Nurse 7th overall, the only true success story is Petry.Peckham got in over 100 games, as did Chorney.Other than that it is a steaming mess.We’re due for one (or two) of these D prospects to become impact NHLers.

    I’d like to add Lagesson to the list.

  8. NYC-Back-to-Tokyo Oil (Gentleman Backpacker) says:

    Lowetide: His numbers in the KHL are fab, don’t know why it didn’t work out in Vegas. Speed? If he’s fast, we know he’s skilled and so maybe. Money of course is an issue. I don’t think the Oilers do it, the second year on the deal makes it impossible.

    If Vegas takes Fayne, pick, prospect and retains 1m the second year isn’t too bad of an issue. I would be all over this if I am PC. Of course it won’t happen. But a C with skill addresses a lot of issues on the 2nd line.

  9. Bag of Pucks says:

    Heading out to see Roger Waters. Anticipating his vision of a nightmarish dystopian future to be lighter than today’s comments section. ☺

  10. Bag of Pucks says:

    Fantastic for the league that Vegas is off to this hot start. Great way to cement an eatly fanbase in what coild be a fickle market.

  11. leadfarmer says:

    Lowetide: His numbers in the KHL are fab, don’t know why it didn’t work out in Vegas. Speed? If he’s fast, we know he’s skilled and so maybe. Money of course is an issue. I don’t think the Oilers do it, the second year on the deal makes it impossible.

    Just very weird handling of the player. Kept down so they could keep depth and long shot defenseman. Now they are giving him permission to find a trade. They are going to have to retain. I don’t think anyone would take on 9 mil for 2 years. Wonder if they retained half if someone gives them a second rounder

  12. Bag of Pucks says:

    Fair to say Vegas HC Gerard Gallant is making his analytics centric former bosses with the Panthers look bad atm?

    Combine that with the early season returns from Chayka’s Yotes and it’s been a disappointing start to the season for the data revolution.

  13. jtblack says:

    Bag of Pucks,

    My In Laws live in Vegas and have season seats. I think you will see a solid fan base down there. Many ppl transplated from Canada, North West and North East states. Season seats are over 12,000.

    Rink is great and in a great location (one of the AZ failures).

    Time will tell but I think they will flourish.

  14. frjohnk says:

    Bag of Pucks:
    Fair to say Vegas HC Gerard Gallant is making his analytics centric former bosses with the Panthers look bad atm?

    Combine that with the early season returns from Chayka’s Yotes and it’s been a disappointing start to the season for the data revolution.

    Every team uses analytics.

  15. Bag of Pucks says:

    jtblack,

    Happy to hear it. Going to hesd down again after my Raiders makd the big move. Hopefully can take in a Golden Knights game too.

  16. Bag of Pucks says:

    frjohnk: Every team uses analytics.

    Agreed bur their importance in decision making varies drastically.

  17. jtblack says:

    Bag of Pucks,

    Raiiders stafium is going up right by the rink (across freeway). Vegas is approaching 2.5 Million ppl. Can easily support NHL and NFL. Will be great!

    I too am a Raiders fan and Vegas now my 2nd fav team.

  18. jtblack says:

    Bag of Pucks,

    Chadyka is at the Front of the Revolution. So IF The yotes underperform fo ra yr or two more, he will have to question which Analytics he believes in.

    Analyttics are important, but they are only 1 metric when evaulating players. Understanding what Analytics matter and which aren’t as Important is the trick.

  19. Lowetide says:

    jtblack:
    Bag of Pucks,

    Chadyka is at the Front of the Revolution.So IF The yotes underperform fo ra yr or two more, he will have to question which Analytics he believes in.

    Analyttics are important, but they are only 1 metric when evaulating players. Understanding what Analytics matter and which aren’t as Important is the trick.

    I think that’s exactly correct. Getting the information accurate is a very important thing, but hiring the person who picks the most important thing is massive. Plus you need management and coaching that value information made available to them.

  20. leadfarmer says:

    Lowetide: I think that’s exactly correct. Getting the information accurate is a very important thing, but hiring the person who picks the most important thing is massive. Plus you need management and coaching that value information made available to them.

    Well and Chayka is starting from so far back. He’s patched up parts of his team but he did also lose some veterans. His defense will be better when he can ditch his bottom pairing. Raanta has had injuries and wobble but he’s better than what he’s shown. His forwards look like what you expect from throwing a whole bunch of young inexperienced players out there. If he can get some decent veteran forwards to help guide the youths he will turn that team around

  21. Bag of Pucks says:

    jtblack:
    Bag of Pucks,

    Raiiders stafium is going up right by the rink (across freeway).Vegas is approaching 2.5Million ppl. Can easily support NHL and NFL.Will be great!

    I too am a Raiders fan and Vegas now my 2nd fav team.

    Raider Nation. Just win baby!

    NFL is big enough to root for 2 teams so its Eagles on the NFC side

  22. Pouzar says:

    Lowetide: His numbers in the KHL are fab, don’t know why it didn’t work out in Vegas. Speed? If he’s fast, we know he’s skilled and so maybe. Money of course is an issue. I don’t think the Oilers do it, the second year on the deal makes it impossible.

    Simon Boisvert‏ @simonsnake70 2h2 hours ago
    More Simon Boisvert Retweeted Darren Dreger
    He’s a good passer with good vision. But he’s had a hard time adapting to smaller ice surface and pace of play. KHL is a different league.

  23. Professor Q says:

    Pouzar: Simon Boisvert‏ @simonsnake702h2 hours ago
    More Simon Boisvert Retweeted Darren Dreger
    He’s a good passer with good vision. But he’s had a hard time adapting to smaller ice surface and pace of play. KHL is a different league.

    So, what exactly does it mean for McPhee to let Shipachyov look for a trade?

    As in, here you go, free chance to be a GM for a day? Does he care about the return?

  24. leadfarmer says:

    Professor Q: So, what exactly does it mean for McPhee to let Shipachyov look for a trade?

    As in, here you go, free chance to be a GM for a day? Does he care about the return?

    That means I can’t trade you, I tried and I can’t You go and try yourself. Otherwise get back to the minors and get used to the smaller ice surface and put up points so I can trade you

  25. VOR says:

    Actually, many teams no longer think of analytics as some isolated tool. It is now seen as part of an integrated whole. This is the brave new future – player information management. The information a team collects and tries to fit into a useful management tool might include data tracking, bio-mechanical analysis, fitness testing, analytics, psychological tests, analytics and many other things. Tomorrow’s advantage is knowing your players, your prospects, and the kids your scouting better than any other team knows their player resources. That includes contextual information.

    Ironically, high end amateur sport has done this for decades. You should see the program the US National Swim Team runs.

  26. flyfish1168 says:

    Darnell has become my favorite Oiler Dman. I just wish he doesn’t always pick a fight with the other team’s biggest toughest dude. More enjoyable when he opens a can of whoop ass on some dude. Polack and McCormick

  27. NYC-Back-to-Tokyo Oil (Gentleman Backpacker) says:

    leadfarmer: That means I can’t trade you, I tried and I can’tYou go and try yourself.Otherwise get back to the minors and get used to the smaller ice surface and put up points so I can trade you

    A guy who puts up over a PPG multiple years in a tough scoring league like the KHL, comes over to North America and is on an expansion team, unlike Panarin landing in Chicago (granted he signed in Vegas and that’s on him but they probably offered the most money).

    He then gets “demoted” due to stated waiver reasons because his GM wants to hold on to his fringe D-men.

    He gets recalled, only to be given a role on the 3rd line with non-skilled guys because the top line and team are already clicking without him. He is given 10 minutes a night, scores in his debut. A non-waiver eligible forward comes off IR and he is sent back down.

    How exactly is he supposed to adjust? He’s been put in the wrong role with the wrong amount of ice time. It’s a bad fit and a bad situation. I think it’s on McPhee to rectify it.

    I find it very hard to believe no one would trade for him. I think other teams would. It’s probably that a) McPhee didn’t want to do it, he doesn’t want to be embarrassed by his prize offseason signing so he wants to make it seem like it’s the player’s fault.

    If Vegas would retain $1m in salary, as a GM I’d be all over the chance to get a guy with that kind of skill on the cheap.

  28. OriginalPouzar says:

    2 more assists for Safin tonight. He’s over a PPG now.

    Benson is hopeful to play on Friday – that would be fantastic.

  29. Lloyd B. says:

    OriginalPouzar,

    Now a distant bell. A kid that fell from top 5 in his draft year to being picked in 2nd round.

    We can only hope his injuries are behind him.

    A dynamic, fast, young left winger.

    We wait… and pray he returns to form.

  30. Lloyd B. says:

    World series at its finest !

  31. OriginalPouzar says:

    Skinner with a 36 save shutout.

  32. OriginalPouzar says:

    Safin is 5th in the Q in shots but is only shooting 7%. From accounts he is constantly creating offence and his goals should go up as his shooting percentage normalizes.

  33. leadfarmer says:

    NYC-Back-to-Tokyo Oil (Gentleman Backpacker): A guy who puts up over a PPG multiple years in a tough scoring league like the KHL, comes over to North America and is on an expansion team, unlike Panarin landing in Chicago (granted he signed in Vegas and that’s on him but they probably offered the most money).

    He then gets “demoted” due to stated waiver reasons because his GM wants to hold on to his fringe D-men.

    He gets recalled, only to be given a role on the 3rd line with non-skilled guys because the top line and team are already clicking without him. He is given 10 minutes a night, scores in his debut. A non-waiver eligible forward comes off IR and he is sent back down.

    How exactly is he supposed to adjust? He’s been put in the wrong role with the wrong amount of ice time. It’s a bad fit and a bad situation. I think it’s on McPhee to rectify it.

    I find it very hard to believe no one would trade for him. I think other teams would. It’s probably that a) McPhee didn’t want to do it, he doesn’t want to be embarrassed by his prize offseason signing so he wants to make it seem like it’s the player’s fault.

    If Vegas would retain $1m in salary, as a GM I’d be all over the chance to get a guy with that kind of skill on the cheap.

    Usually GMs try to trade a player and if they can’t then the player gets the dreaded you can try and trade yourself talk. I don’t like how this was handled and doesn’t put Vegas in good light this early on. KHL is a good league but just because Panarin succeeded in the transition at age 23 doesn’t mean a 30 year old can. There’s other players that are in top of Khl leaderboards that failed in NHL such as Linus Omark.

    People look at Shipachyov stats and say he will be great in the NHL. While the Khl is a tough scoring league schipachyov was on a team with 4 greater than ppg scorers and the 4 of them were top 5 scorers in the league. The team was a offensive powerhouse with Schipachyov Dadonov Gusev and Kovalchuk all tops in league scoring only behind Mozyakin. Can you imagine one team with 4 of the top 5 scorers. On top of that the team has Slava Voynov who despite missing some time was one of the top 5 scoring d in the league.

  34. npanciroli says:

    OriginalPouzar,

    7% seems pretty normal. Do guys shoot at a higher percentage in junior? Love this pick.

    Grabner seems like a good target for speed. Ho-sang fast? Someone out the bug in my head earlier when he got sent to AHL.

  35. leadfarmer says:

    I will also add how are Gusev and Kovalchuk doing without shipachyov? Well they are the top 2 scorers in the league.

  36. OriginalPouzar says:

    npanciroli:
    OriginalPouzar,

    7% seems pretty normal. Do guys shoot at a higher percentage in junior? Love this pick.

    Grabner seems like a good target for speed. Ho-sang fast? Someone out the bug in my head earlier when he got sent to AHL.

    7% for an offensive minded forward with a plus shot is quite low.

    Think of it this way, the worst team shooting percentage last year in the NHL was above 7% and that includes bottom 6 forwards and all d-men.

  37. OriginalPouzar says:

    Lets not forget that Shipachyov carries a $4.5M cap hit for this year and next, is 30 years old and has a grand total of 1 NHL point.

    Yes, he’s lit up the KHL but that does not necessarily translate.

  38. NYC-Back-to-Tokyo Oil (Gentleman Backpacker) says:

    leadfarmer,

    All fair points. I’m not saying in any way shape or form he is equivalent to Panarin. What I was saying was the he didn’t get the kind of opportunity Panarin got.

    Shipachyov has enough skill to be played with skill. Someone ought to take a chance on him.

  39. NYC-Back-to-Tokyo Oil (Gentleman Backpacker) says:

    OriginalPouzar:
    Lets not forget that Shipachyov carries a $4.5M cap hit for this year and next, is 30 years old and has a grand total of 1 NHL point.

    Yes, he’s lit up the KHL but that does not necessarily translate.

    No one is forgetting any of that. Lol. Emphasizing his grand total of one point in just 3 games with 10 minutes of ice time playing with 3Rd liners on an expansion team is unfair.

  40. npanciroli says:

    OriginalPouzar,

    Ahh yes that makes sense.

  41. Lloyd B. says:

    NYC-Back-to-Tokyo Oil (Gentleman Backpacker):
    leadfarmer,

    All fair points. I’m not saying in any way shape or form he is equivalent to Panarin. What I was saying was the he didn’t get the kind of opportunity Panarin got.

    Shipachyov has enough skill to be played with skill. Someone ought to take a chance on him.

    At 4.5 million ?? Good luck.

  42. Kinger_Oil.redux says:

    – what a world series game: wow!

  43. Lloyd B. says:

    Kinger_Oil.redux:
    – what a world series game: wow!

    Aye

  44. NYC-Back-to-Tokyo Oil (Gentleman Backpacker) says:

    Lloyd B.: At 4.5 million ??Good luck.

    Vegas has the ability to retain. McPhee is stockpiling futures.
    The one issue is the second year on the deal.

  45. leadfarmer says:

    NYC-Back-to-Tokyo Oil (Gentleman Backpacker):
    leadfarmer,

    All fair points. I’m not saying in any way shape or form he is equivalent to Panarin. What I was saying was the he didn’t get the kind of opportunity Panarin got.

    Shipachyov has enough skill to be played with skill. Someone ought to take a chance on him.

    Someone ought to and probably will. My point was that it comes with a cap hit and a lot of risk and a lot of teams will shy away from that which is making trading him difficult. A lot of people just post his boxcars and say take the risk and grab him. I’m just saying that his boxcars need to be taken with a grain of salt and there is a chance that they are paying Linus Omark 4.5 million a year.

  46. NYC-Back-to-Tokyo Oil (Gentleman Backpacker) says:

    leadfarmer: Someone ought to and probably will.My point was that it comes with a cap hit and a lot of risk and a lot of teams will shy away from that which is making trading him difficult.A lot of people just post his boxcars and say take the risk and grab him.I’m just saying that his boxcars need to be taken with a grain of salt and there is a chance that they are paying Linus Omark 4.5 million a year.

    It does come with risk. I do believe that if Vegas retains salary they will at least get a pick or something back. Would they rather pay $1m a year and get a pick or prospect or would they prefer to pay him $4.5M a year to park him in the AHL? They’d probably let him go back to the KHL next summer if they find that to be the case.

    We shall see. It doesn’t sound like other teams are interested. It’s too bad his situation was handled poorly (for him and his wife anyway).

  47. OriginalPouzar says:

    NYC-Back-to-Tokyo Oil (Gentleman Backpacker): No one is forgetting any of that. Lol. Emphasizing his grand total of one point in just 3 games with 10 minutes of ice time playing with 3Rd liners on an expansion team is unfair.

    Those are the facts – they are somewhat meaningless given the sample size but the point is the guy has zero history of success at the NHL level and success in the KHL does not necessarily equate to the NHL – for all we know this man is Jiri Dopita’s twin with a bit cap hit – tread lightly.

  48. OriginalPouzar says:

    It’s going to be a great game tonight against the Stars.

    Better play is about to be parlayed into wins and points

  49. OriginalPouzar says:

    Go Oilers – 5 goals for tonight!

  50. npanciroli says:

    OriginalPouzar,

    Love your positivity. I’m feeling good about this one too.

  51. Pouzar says:

    Bring back Slepy and sit Pak please.

  52. Bob Arctor says:

    Dellow has a good article up about top 6/bottom 6 5v5 play in the Western conference. Really like the Sedin idea but I doubt they’re traded.
    https://theathletic.com/137646/2017/10/26/dellow-an-early-look-at-at-western-conference-by-top-sixbottom-six/

  53. Woodguy v2.0 says:

    frjohnk: Every team uses analytics.

    Yes to varying degrees all of them do.

    It very telling that the anti-information fans bring up ARI and FLA to show that having more information about a team is dumb.

    ARI has no budget and FLA let a lot of their analysts go (along with their goal scorers ala Chiarelli)

    They never bring up PIT. On of the first things Rutherford did after taking over was hire almost the entire staff of WarOnIce. Two Cups later after a 6 year drought that’s a team they ignore.

    They never mention SJS who dominated the league (alas without a Cup) for years and years.

    Wilson recently said:

    Wilson: We try to make all our decisions with as much information as possible. We’ve used data research for a long time. I find that the teams that really dig deep and use it don’t really talk about it. It’s part of our decision-making process. We have a group of people and some people that we utilize that bring everything to the table that allows us to make decisions with as much or more information than anybody. It’s in its place. When and how we use it is basically intellectual property, and that’s how we’d like to operate.

    They never bring up CAR who is always near the bottom of the league in spending but have been a goalie away from contenting for a long time.

    They never bring up the TOR, who have their generational player surrounded with lots of other scoring and hockey talent (although they still need Dmen) .

    They never bring up coaches like Mike Yeo who Elliotte quoted recently in regards on how he deploys his line:

    “Its an analytics thing…Something that changed for me as I studied it. There will be games or teams we play that I will hard-match lines, or depending on the score of the game I’m going to throw that out the window a bit more. But typically I will trust my third and fourth line to do their job. We used our fourth line against Vegas’ top line, and I wasn’t’ afraid of it. My thinking is, “If they can tie their shifts against top lines we can win somewhere else”

    They never bring up Ken Hitchcock saying:

    “I was (angry) about analytics coming in, but now it’s changed. I see how useful it is … I found it offensive when I first started. Now I use it for what it is and it’s good, but I had to get past the mental block of that.”

    During every intermission, Hitchcock gets text messages from an analytics company with a breakdown of the Blues’ performance.

    “I take pride in being able to watch a game and understand exactly what happened,” the coach said. “This was information that was not making sense to me because my feel and what I wrote down on my paper wasn’t being projected. After I got my stubbornness out of the way, I looked at it and (they were) right, so I bought in.”

    They never bring up CHI who has used data analysis for longer than anyone besides SJS.

    They never bring up Doug Risebrough hiring Chris Snow back in 2005 to get him to “do for MIN what Theo Epstein was doing for the Red Sox”

    There are a myriad of other examples as well.

    But nope, we get LOL ARI, LOL FLA (even though FLA had a purge) like it means something and those are the only two teams using data.

    Like the Japanese WWII soldier on some sandbar in the Pacific, its still a war to them but them only.

  54. OriginalPouzar says:

    npanciroli:
    OriginalPouzar,

    Love your positivity. I’m feeling good about this one too.

    Don’t see any reason not to try and stay positive at this point. I did predict a slow start to the season, not quite as “slow” as its been but I’m not overly surprised.

    I see many positives and I am hanging my hat on them.

    The season is far from over, however, if they do blow this homestand, it very well could be close to over – positive vibes going in to it as there are many good things to take from the road trip.

    Even just reading the thread yesterday – hours and hours of Eberle trade talk – it was just exhausting to read – I can’t imagine being actively engaged in such a conversation for the day.

    I’d rather talk about the good things the team is doing – the improved goaltending, the cut back of mistakes, the great first game back by Drai, Nurse’s step forward, Safin’s PPG in the Q, Bear with great metrics at ES early, etc.

  55. dtk says:

    Woodguy v2.0:

    They never bring up PIT.On of the first things Rutherford did after taking over was hire almost the entire staff of WarOnIce.Two Cups later after a 6 year drought that’s a team they ignore.

    I was at the RIT Hockey Analytics Conference last weekend and among those in attendance WarOnIce founder and current Pittsburgh Penguin stafff Sam Ventura, wearing one of his Stanley Cup rings.

    Also, there was a pretty interesting discussion from a panel of journalists about how they use analytics in their work. Alison Lukan, who covers the Blue Jackets for the Athletic, said that players and coaches don’t respond well to terms like Corsi, Expected Goals, etc., but that they are very comfortable using those concepts when talking about the game so long as you don’t use the jargon. She emphasized that Tortorella is like this–he seems to be using a lot of the concepts from analytics to understand the game, but shies away from using the same terms that you see bandied about here.

  56. npanciroli says:

    OriginalPouzar,

    100% with you. Love talking lineups and prospects and trade possibilities.

  57. Woodguy v2.0 says:

    dtk,

    Also, there was a pretty interesting discussion from a panel of journalists about how they use analytics in their work. Alison Lukan, who covers the Blue Jackets for the Athletic, said that players and coaches don’t respond well to terms like Corsi, Expected Goals, etc., but that they are very comfortable using those concepts when talking about the game so long as you don’t use the jargon. She emphasized that Tortorella is like this–he seems to be using a lot of the concepts from analytics to understand the game, but shies away from using the same terms that you see bandied about here.

    This is a great point and thanks for posting that.

    Communication is all about language.

    If you start talking to hockey people and you’re using foreign terms it will turn them off.

    If you start talking to anyone about anything in their industry and you don’t use industry terms and language it will be a struggle.

    The best quote on this comes from Todd McLellan: “I don’t know about corsi and fenwick and I don’t care, I do know that I like it when we take lots of shots” (paraphrased)

    There’s two things there:

    1) Great example of disconnect because of language

    2) Todd, like most NHL coaches knows he should get along with the traveling press corps and he plays them like a fiddle often when it comes to this stuff. He worked for Wilson for years and there is no doubt about his knowledge of shot and chance metrics (regardless of what they are called)

    But when Todd wants to win points with the press to keep them onside he makes a joke about analytics and they all bark in unison, lapping up every word.

    He’s a master at it.

  58. dtk says:

    Woodguy v2.0:

    The best quote on this comes from Todd McLellan: “I don’t know about corsi and fenwick and I don’t care, I do know that I like it when we take lots of shots” (paraphrased)

    Alison paraphrased Tortorella as saying almost exactly the same thing. I think that for a lot of people working in hockey, their dispute with “analytics” is a darmok and jalad at tanagra kind of situation. But like you said, a lot of the media are still fighting a war that they lost a long time ago.

  59. Lowetide says:

    Todd McLellan: “Volume shooting, I don’t know what that does to Corsi or Fenwick because I don’t even know what those things are, but volume shooting is important. I think it breaks down defensive zone coverages, gets players out of position, taxes the opposition, makes them play more minutes in their zone.”

    http://lowetide.ca/2015/10/20/shot-volume-its-the-real-thing/

  60. VOR says:

    DTK,

    But which side are you saying only speaks in allegories.

  61. dtk says:

    VOR:
    DTK,

    But which side are you saying only speaks in allegories.

    Ummm, both? The Corsi people are always telling the story of some brave souls who used their slide rules and difference engines to battle over the future of Rob Schremp, while the traditionalists are telling stories about heart and grit while trying to describe high danger scoring chances.

  62. Bag of Pucks says:

    Woodguy v2.0
    It very telling that the anti-information fans bring up ARI and FLA to show that having more information about a team is dumb.

    Do you actually have any examples of people doing this?

    I think you’d be hard pressed to find anyone that’s actually ‘anti-information’ though it’s certainly a convenient stereotype to broad brush paint people who don’t share your worldview.

    Further to VOR’s point yesterday, this kind of adversarial language is counter productive. It’s counter productive amongst fans and it’s counter productive within a team. FLA is a good example of this.

    Their analytics centric management team could’ve look at Gallant as HC and said, “hey, we’ve got a potentially good balance here between new and traditional approaches. Let’s see what we can learn from each other. Instead, they decided that their approach trumped Gallant’s track record and now another team is benefiting from their mistake.

    One of the early criticisms of the advanced stats movement in sports was that it fostered elitist communities who considered themselves above traditional fans. Your comment above is indicative of that type of condescension imo.

    I get it. This was once a math dominated domain that has far expanded beyond its initial audience in purview and popularity. Some would prefer to see it return to its roots exclusively. But exposing this information and perspective to a wider audience has tremendous value, and you win no points by stereotyping anyone that doesn’t approach the game from your perspective as ‘anti-information.’

    The war is over. Analytics won. We don’t need to be quite so defensive anymore.

  63. Woodguy v2.0 says:

    Bag of Pucks,

    Do you actually have any examples of people doing this?

    Yes:

    Fair to say Vegas HC Gerard Gallant is making his analytics centric former bosses with the Panthers look bad atm?
    Combine that with the early season returns from Chayka’s Yotes and it’s been a disappointing start to the season for the data revolution.

    Also read the TL /pieces for many of the beat reportera for the Oilers, Flames, Leafs, Jets, Canucks etc.


    I think you’d be hard pressed to find anyone that’s actually ‘anti-information’ though it’s certainly a convenient stereotype to broad brush paint people who don’t share your worldview.

    Perhaps. Maybe they’re “anti-analytics” or “anti-Woodguy’s analytics” or “anti-Woodguy” I don’t know for sure so I have to use a wide brush.


    Further to VOR’s point yesterday, this kind of adversarial language is counter productive. It’s counter productive amongst fans and it’s counter productive within a team. FLA is a good example of this.
    Their analytics centric management team could’ve look at Gallant as HC and said, “hey, we’ve got a potentially good balance here between new and traditional approaches. Let’s see what we can learn from each other. Instead, they decided that their approach trumped Gallant’s track record and now another team is benefiting from their mistake.

    If you’re “anti-adversarial language”, why would you write this?:

    Fair to say Vegas HC Gerard Gallant is making his analytics centric former bosses with the Panthers look bad atm?
    Combine that with the early season returns from Chayka’s Yotes and it’s been a disappointing start to the season for the data revolution.

    Those paragraphs are anti-adversarial by design.

    Also, you make a lot of assumptions about FLA with no inside knowledge and do not know what they were thinking when they fired Gallant.


    One of the early criticisms of the advanced stats movement in sports was that it fostered elitist communities who considered themselves above traditional fans. Your comment above is indicative of that type of condescension imo.

    Or what I wrote was in response to someone trolling who wrote this and it deserved condescension.

    Fair to say Vegas HC Gerard Gallant is making his analytics centric former bosses with the Panthers look bad atm?
    Combine that with the early season returns from Chayka’s Yotes and it’s been a disappointing start to the season for the data revolution.

    I get it. This was once a math dominated domain that has far expanded beyond its initial audience in purview and popularity. Some would prefer to see it return to its roots exclusively. But exposing this information and perspective to a wider audience has tremendous value, and you win no points by stereotyping anyone that doesn’t approach the game from your perspective as ‘anti-information.’

    I’m not an evangelist. I don’t care how people consume and enjoy hockey. I was responding to a trolllish comment that was designed to elicit a response.


    The war is over. Analytics won. We don’t need to be quite so defensive anymore.

    “We”?

    You’re history on this blog suggests you are anti-analytics so I’m not sure why you wrote “We”

    You wrote this:

    Fair to say Vegas HC Gerard Gallant is making his analytics centric former bosses with the Panthers look bad atm?
    Combine that with the early season returns from Chayka’s Yotes and it’s been a disappointing start to the season for the data revolution.

    So either its a pure troll or you are being intellectually dishonest. You’ve never come across as intellectually dishonest so I’m guessing it was just a troll. I could be wrong.

  64. Bag of Pucks says:

    Woodguy v2.0:
    Bag of Pucks,

    Do you actually have any examples of people doing this?

    Yes:

    Fair to say Vegas HC Gerard Gallant is making his analytics centric former bosses with the Panthers look bad atm?
    Combine that with the early season returns from Chayka’s Yotes and it’s been a disappointing start to the season for the data revolution.

    In your mind, the above statement equates to “anti-information fans bringing up ARI and FLA to show that having more information about a team is dumb?”

    Well, clearly the issue here is you are inferring way too much rather than accepting statements at face value. Ironic, because you wouldn’t do this from an analytical pov, so I’m not sure why it’s acceptable to mis-interpet someone’s language or draw your own inferences without assembling proper context first? You’ve leapt to a conclusion here based on your own misinterpretation and inferences, and your conclusion is wrong.

    Here are the facts. Rowe fired Gallant over a difference of philosophy.

    http://www.cbc.ca/sports/hockey/nhl/panthers-gm-gallant-fired-1.3871497

    Rowe’s expertise is consistent with an analytics centric culture that FLA ownership strongly endorses. Gallant’s was not. It is not wholly unconceivable to speculate that these divergent viewpoints played a part in their ‘philosophical differences.’

    Two, Chayka’s hire has been held up as an early litmus test for the viability of an analytics centric approach from the GM chair.

    https://beta.theglobeandmail.com/sports/hockey/behind-the-rise-of-the-coyotes-26-year-old-gm-john-chayka/article29978618/?ref=http://www.theglobeandmail.com&

    So, both FLA and ARZ are two high profile examples of data/analytics centric approaches. Both clubs are off to slow starts this season. In FLA’s case, the Head Coach they fired over ‘philosophical differences’ is having unprecedented early success with an expansion team.

    So, given these teams are both clearly early adopters in the utilization of a data centric approach, it’s to the benefit of this movement if they have success early, rather than struggling out of the gate. This would be a fact as well.

    Go back and read your reply to me from the pov of ‘how many times am I inferring a conclusion here from my own bias or purely adversarial mindset (e.g. “Or what I wrote was in response to someone trolling who wrote this and it deserved condescension.”)? Maybe if you applied the same rigor to reading comprehension as you do to numbers comprehension, you wouldn’t continually find yourself in these arguments?

    This comment below speaks to a very defensive mindset imo. As you’re fond of saying to others, you’re too smart for this.

    “Perhaps. Maybe they’re “anti-analytics” or “anti-Woodguy’s analytics” or “anti-Woodguy” I don’t know for sure so I have to use a wide brush.”

  65. Woodguy v2.0 says:

    Bag of Pucks,

    So your goal with your post was only to bring awareness to the community of the early struggles of FLA and ARI.

    As poster who rarely misses an opportunity to tweak the noses of people who use and like fancy stats I find your reasoning for posting this very thin.

    Now you post something like that for the edification of the group and not more nose tweeking?

    Saul of Tarsus would look at this conversion with a jaundiced eye.

    Also,

    ARI and FLA are not early adopters, they are quite late.

    I will agree they are high profile.

  66. Bag of Pucks says:

    Woodguy v2.0:
    Bag of Pucks,

    So your goal with your post was only to bring awareness to the community of the early struggles of FLA and ARI.

    As poster who rarely misses an opportunity to tweak the noses of people who use and like fancy stats I find your reasoning for posting this very thin.

    Now you post something like that for the edification of the group and not more nose tweeking?

    Saul of Tarsus would look at this conversion with a jaundiced eye.

    Also,

    ARI and FLA are not early adopters, they are quite late.

    I will agree they are high profile.

    Whatever dude. If you want to continue rationalizing thinking the worst of people and not accepting things said at face value, that’s your journey.

    I know who I am and it’s not someone who goes out of his way to ‘tweak noses’ whatever the hell that means. I’ll leave that to the Cassandra’s of the world.

    For a guy who’s regularly in conflict with other posters, you’re pretty pot v kettle with your judgement of others imo.

  67. Woodguy v2.0 says:

    Bag of Pucks: Whatever dude. If you want to continue rationalizing thinking the worst of people and not accepting things said at face value, that’s your journey.

    I know who I am and it’s not someone who goes out of his way to ‘tweak noses’ whatever the hell that means. I’ll leave that to the Cassandra’s of the world.

    For a guy who’s regularly in conflict with other posters, you’re pretty pot v kettlewith your judgement of others imo.

    I guess we’ve both developed a past.

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