Can’t Buy a Thrill

Nothing personal, just business. There’s every chance this doesn’t end well. Tomorrow night, Taylor Hall will be at Rogers Place with the New Jersey Devils. A player who spent a lot of his youth trying to push the Oilers to the second season has a chance to say thank you to the management team who sent him away. I imagine he’ll be motivated.

  • Todd McLellan:“Tonight was a pretty competitive night against the Stanley Cup champs, but we have to win games.” 

PIKE’S PEAK, YEAR OVER YEAR

  • Oilers in November 2015: 1-0-0, goal differential +2
  • Oilers in November 2016: 0-0-1, goal differential -1
  • Oilers in November 2017: 0-1-0, goal differential -1

The Oilers begin the month with a losing effort against the Pittsburgh Penguins. Late in the second period, with the game 2-1 Edmonton, a pinch from the blue resulted in a two-on-one and that’s all she wrote. It’s one game in a long season, in and of itself really isn’t much at all. However, when the club is faltering and losing touch with the playoffs this early in the year, it’s far more lethal. This is the point in the movie where someone shakes the hero out of his malaise and tells him to wake up! Alas, the Oilers are awake, and losing fully conscious. I blame the bets on the value contracts, your mileage may vary.

AFTER 11, YEAR OVER YEAR

  • Oilers 15-16: 4-7-0, goal differential -6
  • Oilers 16-17: 7-3-1, goal differential +7
  • Oilers 17-18: 3-7-1, goal differential -12

The Oilers are now eight points behind their pace of one year ago, and that is beyond alarming. We’ve talked about the problems, the coach has identified the problems, and yet we saw Edmonton lose last night (partly) due to special teams and lack of secondary scoring. I mean, we can go all year like this, right? As I mentioned on the Lowdown yesterday, Edmonton needs some of those ‘value contracts’ to step up and they aren’t cashing much 11 games into the year. A month from now, it may not matter. We’ve been saying the next game is a must-win for awhile now, men.

WHAT TO EXPECT FROM NOVEMBER

  • At home to: Pittsburgh, New Jersey, Detroit (Expected: 2-1-0) (Actual 0-1-0)
  • On the road to: NYI, New Jersey, NYR, Washington (Expected: 1-2-1) (Actual: 0-0-0)
  • At home to: Vegas, St. Louis (Expected 1-1-0) (Actual: 0-0-0)
  • On the road to: Dallas, St. Louis, Detroit, Buffalo, Boston (Expected 2-2-1) (Actual 0-0-0)
  • At home to: Arizona, Toronto (Expected 1-1-0) (Actual 0-0-0)
  • Overall expected result: 7-7-2, 16 points in 16 games 
  • Current results: 0-1-0, zero points in one game

As mentioned yesterday, I didn’t think the Oilers were tight enough to beat Pittsburgh. The Devils and Red Wings have less talent, but that doesn’t mean these are easy wins for Edmonton. In fact, the Devils are in first place in the Metropolitan Division, could show up the Oilers tomorrow night. We’ll likely see some changes and at this point possibly a Jesse Puljujarvi recall, as the big winger scored a goal last night (now 8gp, 1-3-4 in Bakersfield).

DEFENSE, LAST NIGHT

  • Nurse—Larsson went 16-23 together, much of it with the McDavid trio. Sawed off at 1-1 goals 5×5, facing the Sheary—Crosby—Hornqvist line (12-17 Nurse—Larsson against Sid). Nurse hit a post, pinched on the Sheary goal (some blame him, looked like he was doing his job), Larsson was last line of defense on two-on-one and couldn’t interrupt the puck. For me, Larsson is the culprit, you may think that’s harsh but he took neither pass or shoot. Also in photo on the winner, he did miss a practice but you need him to make those plays. I think Klefbom is a better option for Larsson.
  • Klefbom—Benning went 9-12 together, including 6-8 with the Nuge line. The group faced Kuhnackl—Evgeni Malkin—Bryan Rust/Phil Kessel about six minutes, going 4-6. I like the pairing, but they were 0-3 in high danger scoring chances.
  • Auvitu—Russell were a quiet duo, going 9-5 and 5-1 in scoring chances. I know Auvitu is an acquired taste, but the numbers for this guy are incredible. He wasn’t getting just offensive zone faceoffs either. It’s early in the season and we haven’t seen him much, but the numbers are good. Went 8-2 with the Strome line, pairing faced Guentzel—Sheahan—Kessel (5-6). We may see these two Friday, Devils have some fast trains.
  • Russell 11:12 5×5. Lordy.
  • Cam Talbot stopped 27 of 30, I thought he was excellent. Even-strength saves are good, the entire penalty kill is a mess.

FORWARDS, LAST NIGHT

  • Caggiula—Strome—Slepyshev had a good night in possession and the three men delivered 7 shots. Went 10-7 as a line, got a slight face-off push and were 4-2 against the Sheahan line. I don’t think the coach has grand plans for this unit, but it will be interesting to see if they get another game. Caggiula had his best game of the year. McLellan said they were dangerous for the most part in the post-game media avail.
  • Maroon—McDavid—Draisaitl went 14-18 together, had eight shots on goal and four points. Ran against the Crosby line (11-17) and Dumoulin (9-8). McLellan likes the power matchup, and they were 1-1 head-to-head. The only play left for the coach is to move Leon down, that may coincide with a JP recall.
  • Lucic—Nuge—Yamamoto got  the one point, Nuge on the power play. Four shots for the line, suspect we may see Yamamoto sent back as soon as today. Went 2-6 against Malkin, that’s an impossible matchup for RNH with a rookie imo. Not fair, McGee.
  • Pakarinen—Letestu—Kassian went 3-4 in a low-event evening. Kassian’s breakaway out of the penalty box would have been nice and Letestu just missed a glorious PP opportunity. Went 0-4 against the McKegg line, who don’t look like much but worked like buggers and won some battles.
  • Natural Stat Trick and NHL.com.

VALUE CONTRACTS

  1. LC Connor McDavid 11gp, 5-8-13. On pace for 97 points this season, an incredible talent delivering every night against increasingly difficult competition. Starting to hear grumbles from certain segments of the fan base, those of us who saw it with Hall, Nuge and others know where this is headed if success eludes the franchise. Please believe me when I tell you: The Oilers have a bunch of problems, this guy isn’t one of them. He’s a bargain at $3.775 million (including all bonuses).
  2. L Patrick Maroon 11gp, 4-5-9. On pace for 30 goals and 67 points, he’s a big part of the hockey team and currently on a quality run. There was a contract rumor earlier, haven’t heard much lately. Making $1.5 million and an extreme bargain.
  3. RC Ryan Strome 11gp, 1-3-4. I’m not as down on him as many are, for me Strome has shown glimpses and is still settling in. Still, on pace for just 29 points and he’ll need to boost that total. I think the club may end up using him more on special teams (as a center).
  4. R Kailer Yamamoto 8gp, 0-3-3. On pace for 30 points, but I think we’re reaching the end of his 2017-18 NHL season. He is still doing good things (drew a penalty last night) but not enough of them to stay. Including bonuses, he’s at $1.155 million.
  5. LD Darnell Nurse 11gp, 0-3-3. Nurse has taken another step forward this season and at a time when the organization badly needed it. I definitely count him as a positive value contract, he’d make $1.713 if all of his bonuses cash this year. Projects to 22 points.
  6. RC Mark Letestu  11gp, 2-0-2. He’s having the same kind goal-scoring impact as one year ago (on a trajectory for 15 goals) but remains a bargain at $1.8 million.
  7. RD Matt Benning 8gp, 1-0-1. He struggled early and appears to be back to previous form. $1.225 million with bonuses all in, I like him as a bet for real value.
  8. L Jussi Jokinen 9gp, 0-1-1. Making just $1.1 million, this seemed like a solid bet and may yet turn into one. Jokinen isn’t playing currently, but for me is one of the 12 best forwards on the roster.
  9. LD Yohann Auvitu 5gp, 0-0-0. No boxcars yet but the fancy stats are strong as they come into view. Not certain what coach McLellan will do with him but there’s a player here.
  10. L Drake Caggiula 6gp, 0-0-0. Making $1.35 million if all of the bonuses are reached, coming on now and we’ll see how much offense he can bring.
  11. LC Jujhar Khaira 6gp, 0-0-0. He is at $675,000 so it won’t take too much to cover the bet. One area he could make himself useful is the PK, he did quite a bit of it in Bakersfield.
  12. R Iiro Pakarinen 8gp, 0-0-0. He’s making $725,000 and the coach likes what he brings. Among the many bottom 6F’s yet to score.
  13. R Anton Slepyshev 8gp, 0-0-0. Appears to be crawling from the wreckage, had a good night on the Strome line against Pittsburgh. He is not a proven scorer, has some nice tools.
  14. RD Eric Gryba 9gp, 0-0-0. Making $900,000 and playing most of the games, I’ll count Gryba as a value contract while also agreeing he is better served as a 7D.
  • Value deals overachieving: Connor McDavid, Patrick Maroon, Darnell Nurse
  • Value deals delivering: Mark Letestu, Matt Benning
  • Value deals under delivering: The rest

The men being paid in full are another category and there are players (Milan Lucic, Kris Russell, Cam Talbot, Swedish blue) who need to do more. I’m confident most of these men will recover to previous levels, but the number of value contracts under water is a massive drag on the roster. Perhaps Slepyshev will break out on Friday.

LOWDOWN WITH LOWETIDE

At 10 this morning, TSN1260. A lot of ground to cover and what a week in sports! Scheduled to appear:

  • Bruce McCurdy, Cult of Hockey. Last night’s game and the New Jersey Devils coming to town.
  • Rob Vollman, NHL.com and ESPN. Oilers in early trouble, is there a move that makes sense?
  • Frank Seravalli, TSN. Are there any trade winds blowing?

10-1260 text, @Lowetide on twitter. Talk soon!

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172 Responses to "Can’t Buy a Thrill"

  1. SHILL83 says:

    Line Combinations:

    19-97-91
    27-29-58
    24-93-18
    16-55-44

    77-6
    25-83
    4-62

    PP1
    18-29-27
    77-97

    PP2
    55-93-19
    25-58

    Things need to change and fast or we are gonna start talking about the draft very soon and i thought we had finally passed that stage!

    I would call up JP if he is ready and put him on the third line with Nuge or call up Malone and put him on that third line if JP isnt ready or the bonus issue is still and issue. Use the C depth that we have and try to spread out the scoring. Not like a lot of scoring is happening but just maybe with three strong C on each line one line can take advantage of the softer parade.

    Put the defense back to how they were. I know 77-6 have been off but they were great last year and for the oilers to win they need that top pairing playing well and playing significant minutes. So get them back together and hopefully they can figure it out.

    Put 25-83 as they were good last year and Nurse has played very well to start the season. As for the PP1 I would put it back to what it wast last year but give strome a chance in Let spot. PP1 should feature 29 and 97 together, but they need to start producing.

    Also on the PP1 Lucic needs to learn and accept his role! Go park you a** in front of the net and stand there stop moving around. With 29 and 97 on the ice he doesn’t need to touch the puck. Just screen the goalie and look for rebound. Thats how he scored almost all of his goals last year, why is he changing things! Lucic has been trying to do way to much on the PP that he isn’t able to do and its leading to a poor powerplay. As for the PP2 it looks not great on paper and I’d give them less minutes and based on the last couple of games 97 and 29 were playing 2/3 and even 3/4 of the powerplay so they only are getting limited time on the PP which is more than okay to start.

    Have nuge be on the wall and control the puck. Setup maroon in front of the need and do the same as I said for Lucic just stand there. Let(55) goes to his spot for the one timer and Slep can move around and occupy the center spot looking for another tip or redirect. Nurse can take shots from the point, his shot last night looked great.

    This team needs to get some line combos and stick with them for a couple games so some chemistry can be built. Stop the dam McBlender by the second period it isn’t helping any of the players and it hasn’t lead to a win either.

  2. stush18 says:

    Silver lining, so far we’ve played penguins, penguins, capitals, stars, and Blackhawks.

    Still dominating the shot metrics, and I think if it were a regular season, we wouldn’t be upset about going 500 against the good teams.

  3. Kinger_Oil.redux says:

    – Great post LT!

    – There was a quote from Coach yesterday. He was asked if we can win without any scoring from the bottom 6. His answer: “We know the answer to that”.

    – Kailer is basically a boat anchor in terms of actual results, and that is huge factor on the scoring lines. You just can’t have a guy who doesn’t score getting gifted all that time. I know small sample size and bad luck, but getting a winger in the top-6 that can score changes a lot of things IMO.

    – I like the Strome-Caggs-Slep line: hope the get more time together

    – I think Jessie’s got an awesome opportunity: no one else has stolen it from him

    – Again, another .950 goaler. Sure there are a few shots that might be different than last year, but the string of goalering against us is much more of a factor than any difference that change in tactics can be attributed. That 5×3 kill was great…

  4. Connoreah says:

    Was at the game last night, and what stood out more than anything to me live was the number of bad decisions/passes made by Lucic. Not only that, he didn’t seem to care. He hasn’t been ‘Lucic’ since we signed him, but last night was really bad in my opinion (and I’ve been defending him since day 1 to my friends who hated the signing).

    If I’m TMac I’m sitting Lucic on Friday to send a message and wake the big man up. He should be the source of intensity on this team, and right now he’s sleeping.

    Bring up JP and throw him on 97’s wing, move Drai down to winger with the Nuge and see what happens. This is getting depressing… we need a spark big time.

  5. texmex says:

    Connoreah,

    I agree 100%!!!!!! And I never seen the game (Astros baby!!).

    Baffles me how looch remains on the 2nd line. I’d love to see the following lines:

    19-97-98
    29-93-58
    27-18- 44
    16-55 -91

    Maybe caggs plays 2RW instead of slepy. But for the love of god give RNH a winger or two.

  6. hunter1909 says:

    Reading about Kreider or some other “saviour” coming via trade is the worst thing about Chiarelli’s mess.

    You think Connor McOrr is enough to build a championship team around. Instead, as it’s the Oilers, everyone gets treated to a wet dream(2016-17 season); followed by a jump into an ice cold lake.

    Tomorrow night might see Taylor Hall personally deliver the coup de grace to a lot of foolish people’s opinions about what constitutes NHL hockey. But I’m sure Yamamoto’s going to finally break out and show everyone the genius of the Edmonton Oilers management when the team gets their participation medals.

  7. thehop says:

    Paging Original Pouzar…

    I’m sad he didn’t get here first.

    If the Swedes don’t start playing better… and I mean way better… this team won’t stand a chance as constructed.

    I screamed on the first goal when Klefbom allowed his mark to get behind him and then took time to adjust equipment while Hornquist pumped it in. I’m not sure if he is injured, certainly appears that way. That’s only explanation I could come up with for the mid play adjustment. I saw him do the same thing again later in the game after he blocked a shot.

    Strange strange days.

  8. Clay says:

    I see a lot of “how can the same group of players be this much worse” type comments, but there are lots of elements from Oct-Nov last year that are not in play now:

    – Sekera (obvious)
    – Tyler Pitlick, through the first part of the season, was providing incredible secondary goal scoring.
    – There were more serviceable penalty killing options (Pou, Lander)
    – Eberle was scoring fairly well early season.

    If you take all of those elements away from last year’s team, and they don’t start 7-3-1. It would be a lot closer to this year’s start.

    The life of a sports GM – when most/all of your bets pay off, you’re a genius. When they don’t, you’re an idiot.

  9. RexLibris says:

    My issue with what we’re seeing right now is that the failures are essentially falling at the feet of those players whom the management deemed were good bets to improve or run in place for another season when many outside observers said it wasn’t enough.

    When changes begin to occur they often have to cut through a lot of layers before getting to the root of the problem, that means we’re more likely to see a poor trade and a coaching change before eventually the change occurs where the majority of the fault lies – in management.

    There are players who could do more, but we’ve seen good players sent out for flaws that were either purely circumstantial or entirely unrelated to their own performance.

    The coaching staff has made some questionable lineup decisions at times but overall these have been minor moves in depth positions and some pair juggling on defense – from what I can tell this is pretty much par for the course in every NHL hockey market.

    Management decided that they could swap out a top 6 forward for a struggling prospect and leave the defense more or less unchanged despite being handed a major injury in the top 4. Their complacency is causing pain for the players who must now bear the brunt of criticism and may eventually cost a good coach his job.

    I’m not one clamouring for Chiarelli to be fired immediately, but I believe the direction he has chosen for this team is inherently flawed and doubt he has the fortitude to publicly admit his mistakes and adjust course (pride is a powerful drug). Until he does that, this team will muddle along, perhaps bleeding talent from what they appear to think of as an inexhaustible supply, and fans and media will begin to circle looking for someone to blame.

    We know how that story goes and before anyone tries to tell me that it could never get that bad, I’ve seen it before and I know this town is capable of almost anything once it sets it’s mind to it.

  10. Snowman says:

    Kinger_Oil.redux,

    I agree with what you’re saying for the most part. Except Jesse isn’t the answer in my opinion. Going from one raw rookie to a different raw rookie isn’t a good plan. It’s a good plan if it works… it’s a pretty horrible plan if it doesn’t and I don’t think the odds of it working are better 50/50.

  11. fifthcartel says:

    Yamamoto will be a promising player, but right now he’s just not an NHL player and it’s unfair to give him to RNH.

    There’s just too many fringe NHL players in the bottom six, so they’re way too reliant on 97 and to a lesser extent, 93. Caggiula and Slepyshev had high hopes by some, but they have 18 and 11 career NHL points respectively. Letestu is completely done at ES and Kassian isn’t producing 5-on-5 anymore.

  12. frjohnk says:

    Clay:
    I see a lot of “how can the same group of players be this much worse” type comments, but there are lots of elements from Oct-Nov last year that are not in play now:

    – Sekera (obvious)
    – Tyler Pitlick, through the first part of the season, was providing incredible secondary goal scoring.
    – There were more serviceable penalty killing options (Pou, Lander)
    – Eberle was scoring fairly well early season.

    If you take all of those elements away from last year’s team, and they don’t start 7-3-1.It would be a lot closer to this year’s start.

    The life of a sports GM – when most/all of your bets pay off, you’re a genius.When they don’t, you’re an idiot.

    Kassian cant even buy an offside goal this year.

  13. frjohnk says:

    Kinger_Oil.redux: Again, another .950 goaler. Sure there are a few shots that might be different than last year, but the string of goalering against us is much more of a factor than any difference that change in tactics can be attributed.

    Actually there are quite a few more perimeter shots than last year.

    Im not sure what it is, but in close games we can not get to the high danger areas with the puck and get shots on net. ( other than mcDavids line)

    So Im not surprised we are running into ” hot goalering” each and every game.

  14. Bag of Pucks says:

    RexLibris:

    Management decided that they could swap out a top 6 forward for a struggling prospect and leave the defense more or less unchanged despite being handed a major injury in the top 4. Their complacency is causing pain for the players who must now bear the brunt of criticism and may eventually cost a good coach his job.

    Agree that this would be the crux of the argument for “it’s management’s fault.”

    What puzzles me about this is 1) Eberle didn’t score alongside Connor, so he was essentially 2RW. And a lack of scoring from the second line has not been a core factor in the current woes? and 2) Nurse has effectively stepped up his game which is what Chiarelli bet on rather than sending out assets for a temporary injury replacement for Sekera.

    But if you look at what is ailing this club: poor special teams, no depth scoring from the bottom 6, 4Cs playing in the Top 6, inconsistent goaltending, etc. All but the last factor could be directly attributed to coaching or lack thereof.

    This roster is not that drastically different from last year’s personnel and yet they’ve fallen from division winner to basement dweller. We’re going to attribute that drastic and rapid of a decline to not addressing two roster gaps? Seems like a stretch to me. The more obvious factor seems to be the coaching and deployment of the players, rather than the quality of the players themselves.

  15. Kinger_Oil.redux says:

    Snowman:
    Kinger_Oil.redux,

    I agree with what you’re saying for the most part. Except Jesse isn’t the answer in my opinion. Going from one raw rookie to a different raw rookie isn’t a good plan. It’s a good plan if it works… it’s a pretty horrible plan if it doesn’t and I don’t think the odds of it working are better 50/50.

    – I’m not sure if he is the solution either, but based on all the wingers non-Drai division, he can’t be any less productive. He went down last year and was ok, he had a decent training camp, and by all accounts he’s doing what is asked down there. We just don’t know if he’s “ready”

    – He’s going to get another opportunity this year, and you never know unless you try

    – And the expectations set on him are low now, IMO.

    – You just can’t keep anyone, let alone an 18 year junoir on the top-line who doesn’t score.

    – It’s been a good experience for him, and organization learning that there’s a difference between 60% sh% in pre-season and playing with the big boys

  16. JimmyV1965 says:

    Snowman:
    Kinger_Oil.redux,

    I agree with what you’re saying for the most part. Except Jesse isn’t the answer in my opinion. Going from one raw rookie to a different raw rookie isn’t a good plan. It’s a good plan if it works… it’s a pretty horrible plan if it doesn’t and I don’t think the odds of it working are better 50/50.

    Agreed. I think this is an awful time to bring up JP. The team is a mess and we will be looking for him to solve problems. Let him marinate and gain confidence. If we were winning games I don’t think anyone would be clamouring to bring up JP. if he comes up here and starts drowning do we send him to the minors for a third time?

  17. dustrock says:

    Chiarelli managed to freeze this flawed roster in place before even the end of McDavid’s ELC.

    That’s impressive.

    The only valuable pieces they have to move are RNH, Klefa, and Nurse.

    If you’re Chiarelli and Sekera comes back, do you pull the trigger on trading Nurse or Klefbom, figuring you’ll have Sekera on top pairing and Russell on bottom pairing?

  18. Snowman says:

    Kinger_Oil.redux,

    Yeah ok. I agree with that. You’re right he can’t be worse than not scoring. I suppose if you look at it that way the very worst he can do is fit right in.

  19. Kinger_Oil.redux says:

    frjohnk: Actually there are quite a few more perimeter shots than last year.

    Im not sure what it is, but in close games we can not get to the high danger areas with the puck and get shots on net.( other than mcDavids line)

    So Im not surprised we are running into ” hot goalering” each and every game.

    – No: Woodguy’s stuff shows an increase in shots from point and in increase in total shots. So the marginal decrease in the effectiveness in those shots is more than made up by the increase in total shots.

    – Heat maps are very strong

    – It’s hot goalering that is more attributable. The cause and effect are being mis-diagnosed IMO When we score lots of goals in the few games, it’s never weak goals let in.

    – Just my take on the numbers that I’ve seen from different sources. And the PP sucks

    – Our results really suck to date that’s for sure

  20. Bag of Pucks says:

    Watched Lucic a lot in Boston and he was one of the players that could actually take over a game individually and dominate it when the spirit moved him. What happened to that player?

    He’s only 29 years old ffs. This shouldn’t be an age decline issue.

    Did Chiarelli pay out a lottery contract for slow boots two years after the league officially transitioned to a speed league?

    What concerns me about the Oilers right now is their inability to play a half court game, particularly because given the size throughout the lineup, this is something they should be excelling at. WTF? A good example of this is the pathetic power play. When Connor’s on the ice, they look decent as a fast break / rush team. But man, once they establish possession in the zone, they become very predictable and passive.

    Last year’s team that crashed the net in waves? Nowhere to be found.

  21. texmex says:

    JimmyV1965,

    Shouldn’t this exact same argument be made for Yamo? Maybe the situation is slightly different, but the kid needs to go back to junior.

  22. JimmyV1965 says:

    Other than the Drake and Kassian I don’t see anyone in the bottom six even creating chances. They might occasionally create some zone time, but I don’t see any real scoring chances. Having said that, you don’t generally have long slumps because you’re bottom six isn’t producing. This is baffling.

  23. Kinger_Oil.redux says:

    JimmyV1965: .if he comes up here and starts drowning do we send him to the minors for a third time?

    – That’s exactly what you do IMO. Whats the alternative? Burn a year of Kailer who isn’t producing either?

    – Make a panic trade?

    – Or keep him down there, and find someone else on roster. Letetsu isn’t the answer…

  24. JimmyV1965 says:

    texmex:
    JimmyV1965,

    Shouldn’t this exact same argument be made for Yamo? Maybe the situation is slightly different, but the kid needs to go back to junior.

    Totally agree with that. Yammer should be sent to junior and JP should stay in the minors.

  25. sliderule says:

    Malkin gave the oiler shooters a lesson.

    It’s not how hard you shoot it’s how accurate.

    From around hash marks the goalie can’t move just find a hole.

    The oilers death grip their sticks and fire it into the pads or wide of the net.

    A few more blown games and when they are out of it they will relax and the puck will start going in.

  26. frjohnk says:

    Bag of Pucks: 1) Eberle didn’t score alongside Connor, so he was essentially 2RW. And a lack of scoring from the second line has not been a core factor in the current woes?

    Actually he did
    in 15-16, in 364 minutes, 2.8 pts/60 with mcDavid 53% GF%
    in 16-17, in 402 minutes, 2.24 pts/60 with McDavid 62% GF%

    Drai with McDavid last year, 674 minutes, 2.23 pts/60, 59% GF%

    McDavid line + RNH ( 4 players) have 76% of the 5 on 5 goals.

    Here are the forwards scoring at 5 on 5 after 11 games.

    Patrick Maroon 4
    Connor McDavid 4
    Ryan Nugent-Hopkins 3
    Leon Draisaitl 2
    Milan Lucic 1
    Jussi Jokinen 0
    Anton Slepyshev 0
    Drake Caggiula 0
    Jujhar Khaira 0
    Kailer Yamamoto 0
    Zack Kassian 0
    Iiro Pakarinen 0
    Ryan Strome 0
    Mark Letestu 0
    Brad Malone 0

    Are the forwards without McDavid line + RNH, scoring at bottom 6 rates that rival the injury plagued 15-16 season?

    Actually its lower!!!

  27. JimmyV1965 says:

    Kinger_Oil.redux: – That’s exactly what you do IMO.Whats the alternative?Burn a year of Kailer who isn’t producing either?

    – Make a panic trade?

    – Or keep him down there, and find someone else on roster.Letetsu isn’t the answer…

    They have to figure it out with the personnel they have. A panic trade would be the worst thing you can do. Any team with McDavid and Drai should not be last in the league in scoring.

  28. Whatif says:

    OmJo
    says:

    October 31, 2017 at 3:44 pm

    Whatif:
    Years ago Leaf fans regularly fell in love with various prospects and considered them to be much better than they actually were. A good part of this resulted from hope and hype rather than looking at facts.

    Somewhat the same situation appears to be developing with regard to the supporting cast for the current Oilers.None of Khaira, Pakarinen, Caggiula, Jokinen or Slepyshev appear to have the skills to become solid offensive contributors.Yet we seem to be trying to shoehorn them into positions above their level of ability on the hope that they will somehow blossom. To me this is a suckers game and does not bode well.

    If PC were able to acquire a few players with upside the picture could change very quickly but he is not a good negotiator. I am therefore concerned. Are you?

    It was only us who did this, management and coaching staff did, too. I wasn’t happy with the lack of RW depth on the team going into the season. But I won’t pretend like I wasn’t expecting at least one of Slepyshev, Cagguila, Puljujarvi to step up. Likewise with Jokinen.

    The thing is we haven’t given them opportunities to do so. Draisaitl and Yamamoto are the only two Fs who’ve played significantly with McDavid so far on RW. The other potential RWs have been struggling in the bottom 6. An offensively weak bottom 6.

    A lot of the expectation surrounded those 3 (Cagguila, Slepyshev and Puljujarvi) was the idea of them playing in the top 6 and having McDavid and Draisaitl help them step up to the next level. Until we see it tried for more than a few shifts in the 3rd period, I’m not willing to say Cagguila and Slepyshev are write-offs. They showed glimpses in the playoffs of what they can do. We’ll never know until they try.

    It would appear that there are quite a few people who basically agree with what is stated in this excerpt from a comment on a previous article penned by Lowetide.

    Please realize that these players simply are not good enough. At this point in time Yamamoto is not a Goudreau. He may be similar some day but not now. The rest of the bottom six are not making any contribution at the moment.

    What if PC decides to “shake them up” by making a move. At this point he doesn’t have many other options. Or does he?

  29. frjohnk says:

    JimmyV1965: you don’t generally have long slumps because you’re bottom six isn’t producing

    More like bottom 8

  30. texmex says:

    JimmyV1965,

    It’s just frustrating!!! I remember checking twitter daily throughout the summer to see if Chia had signed a decent RW (vrbata, Sharp, vanek, SOMEONE) or a Sekera replacement. But to no avail. IMO, not upgrading the D with a Sekera replacement has been the biggest mistake so far.

  31. Pouzar says:

    JimmyV1965: Agreed. I think this is an awful time to bring up JP. The team is a mess and we will be looking for him to solve problems. Let him marinate and gain confidence. If we were winning games I don’t think anyone would be clamouring to bring up JP.if he comes up here and starts drowning do we send him to the minors for a third time?

    +2

  32. JimmyV1965 says:

    If this team keeps Yammer here beyond 9 games I will lose any remaining confidence in management. He’s no longer even getting chances and the competition will be ramping up even more as time goes on.

  33. Clarkenstein says:

    Yamamoto was the cute little mascot coming out of camp. A pup. They kept him around and tried to big game hunt with a pup. For crissakes get the kid back to Junior. Today.

  34. TheVengeFulOne says:

    Glad we got McDavid signed last year because good god this is starting to look ugly.

  35. Snowman says:

    Bag of Pucks:
    Watched Lucic a lot in Boston and he was one of the players that could actually take over a game individually and dominate it when the spirit moved him. What happened to that player?

    He’s only 29 years old ffs. This shouldn’t be an age decline issue.

    Did Chiarelli pay out a lottery contract for slow boots two years after the league officially transitioned to a speed league?

    What concerns me about the Oilers right now is their inability to play a half court game, particularly because given the size throughout the lineup, this is something they should be excelling at. WTF? A good example of this is the pathetic power play. When Connor’s on the ice, they look decent as a fast break / rush team. But man, once they establish possession in the zone, they become very predictable and passive.

    Last year’s team that crashed the net in waves? Nowhere to be found.

    You nailed it.

    Chiarelli built a team to be big and the league, in an ultimately ironic and tragic twist of fate, switched to the speed game the Oilers were playing during all those years of losing.

    Lucic is the definition of big man’s hockey. Unfortunately he’s not fast enough anymore to dominate like he used to. Additionally, I think the shortcomings in his skill level (hands) are made to look worse by the less time and space he has on the ice to make plays now compared to 5 years ago.

  36. JimmyV1965 says:

    Whatif:
    OmJo
    says:

    October 31, 2017 at 3:44 pm

    Whatif:Years ago Leaf fans regularly fell in love with various prospects and considered them to be much better than they actually were. A good part of this resulted from hope and hype rather than looking at facts.

    Somewhat the same situation appears to be developing with regard to the supporting cast for the current Oilers.None of Khaira, Pakarinen, Caggiula, Jokinen or Slepyshev appear to have the skills to become solid offensive contributors.Yet we seem to be trying to shoehorn them into positions above their level of ability on the hope that they will somehow blossom. To me this is a suckers game and does not bode well.

    If PC were able to acquire a few players with upside the picture could change very quickly but he is not a good negotiator. I am therefore concerned. Are you?

    It was only us who did this, management and coaching staff did, too. I wasn’t happy with the lack of RW depth on the team going into the season. But I won’t pretend like I wasn’t expecting at least one of Slepyshev, Cagguila, Puljujarvi to step up. Likewise with Jokinen.

    The thing is we haven’t given them opportunities to do so. Draisaitl and Yamamoto are the only two Fs who’ve played significantly with McDavid so far on RW. The other potential RWs have been struggling in the bottom 6. An offensively weak bottom 6.

    A lot of the expectation surrounded those 3 (Cagguila, Slepyshev and Puljujarvi) was the idea of them playing in the top 6 and having McDavid and Draisaitl help them step up to the next level. Until we see it tried for more than a few shifts in the 3rd period, I’m not willing to say Cagguila and Slepyshev are write-offs. They showed glimpses in the playoffs of what they can do. We’ll never know until they try.

    It would appear that there are quite a few people who basically agree with what is stated in this excerpt from a comment on a previous article penned by Lowetide.

    Please realize that these players simply are not good enough. At this point in time Yamamoto is not a Goudreau. He may be similar some day but not now. The rest of the bottom six are not making any contribution at the moment.

    What if PC decides to “shake them up” by making a move. At this point he doesn’t have many other options. Or does he?

    I was confident that we could find a RW internally because generational talents like McDavid make players better and unlock their talents. That’s what they do. But when you don’t actually play those guys with McDavid it’s a tad bit more challenging.

  37. StixMalone says:

    I already am looking at the draft and it’s November for crying out loud! They better get their sh*t together on AND OFF the ice (some here might know) this month. Sort things out boys cause the stupid trade winds are blowing and they might have hurricane effects….

  38. New Improved Darkness says:

    RexLibris:
    My issue with what we’re seeing right now is that the failures are essentially falling at the feet of those players whom the management deemed were good bets to improve or run in place for another season when many outside observers said it wasn’t enough.

    Just what would it have taken for no group of outside observers to say that it wasn’t enough? Edward Fillethands?

    when many outside observers [who’s specific credibility I’m now here to pump] said it wasn’t enough

    Standard disclaimer whenever someone takes a retrospective straw poll of the boo bird ecosystem.

    Nice post hawk.

  39. OmJo says:

    Taylor Hall on pace for 111pts. His locker room cancer presence is certainly proving detrimental to the New Jersey Devils and their chances at making the playoffs.

  40. TheVengeFulOne says:

    JimmyV1965: Totally agree with that. Yammer should be sent to junior and JP should stay in the minors.

    And we should trade for 2 RW then? Where are all the people who wanted to RW by committee? Time someone else gets a look I think. Unless we are looking at the draft…again.

  41. OriginalPouzar says:

    Can’t wait for the game tomorrow night – should be a fun game to watch – Jersey has some talented and fast players – should be a good game.

    Will be eating at a bucket list restaurant in NYC but I made the reservation at a time where I should be back at the rented condo around the start of the game for full viewing.

    In fact, I think I’ve planned this entire trip to not miss a minute:

    1) Friday night – should be back from dinner right when game starts

    2 Sunday afternoon – 4pm eastern – wife will finish the marathon around 2ish so we should be back at the condo and the game will start right when she’ll likely want to lay down/relax for a few hours – perfect

    3) Tuesday night – will be at the Barclays center.

    Go Oilers!

  42. TheVengeFulOne says:

    OmJo:
    Taylor Hall on pace for 111pts. His locker room cancer presence is certainly proving detrimental to the New Jersey Devils and their chances at making the playoffs.

    You can be a good hockey player and an asshole. I think people put too much value on character some times. I know guys who were fantastic teammates, but shitty people.

  43. DBO says:

    All about the defence. A strong D can make up for Average goaltending, can jump into the play, can move the puck tape to tape and increase offence. Sekera is missed so much, as he stabilized Russell, and allowed Nurse and Benning to be sheltered. Chia bet we could sustain with our stronger team game, but it hasn’t worked.
    Look back at all the failures the past years and our D was always suspect. He bet incorrectly on Russsell playing the Sekera role and never addressed the lack of balance and depth. Our forwards will be fine, everyone chill. Talbot has been solid since going on road. Our D is a tire fire. Poor D means poor PK, poor transition and therefore poor offence .
    Not sure on who is available, but need to get s better 2RD, stabilize the pairings and help the goalie and offence.

  44. Bag of Pucks says:

    frjohnk,

    Fair enough, but all that said, it’s a single player. If the loss of Jordan Eberle alone could explain this descent from division winner to the basement, then he should’ve won the Hart last year not Connor.

    I think the poor special teams and inconsistent goaltending are way bigger factors in the downturn. And MacLellan’s stubborness in not deploying his strength at C correctly may end up costing him his job.

  45. Dustylegnd says:

    How about we all stop and think about the roster that was in place when Chia took over this team

    Facts:

    a) We had 2 Skill wingers, no true #1 centre, and spare parts, seriously go back and look at that forward roster, it is shocking

    b) The defence was an absolute joke, and the 1 proven piece we had was dealt away for pennies on the dollar by MacTavish, who knew right shot D were such a limited NHL commodity eh MacTavish

    c) Ben Scrivens and Victor Fasth were our Goalies

    That was 3 years ago people, lets look at some more Chia facts:

    a) Absolute value deal for a true #1 Goalie and signed him to a very fair and value contract extension

    b) Took Scrivens and turned him into Kassian…Value grit and some scoring

    c) Acquired Marron for a suspect and a pick and convinces the Ducks to pay for 50% of the points great trade

    d) overpaid for Larsson, no doubt about it, but decided repeating the same behaviour and expecting a different outcome was indeed insanity….I mean seriously something had to change

    e) Signed Lucic, god awful decision that currently looks disastrous because of the way it hamstrings us cap wise

    f) found Benning for Free, looks to be a great acquisition

    g) Found Cagguila for free looks to be a decent decision

    h) seems to have stocked the hell out of the D cupboards in Stockton with the possibility of 2 future NHL D men currently learning

    To Sum up:

    a) #1 Golaie for cheap
    b) found size and skill for a bag of pucks Kass and Marooon
    c) found a #5 D man maybe top 4 for free Benning
    d) restocked the farm system

    To say Chia froze the roster is just not accurate, he has taken a steaming pile of SHIT and turned it into compost, yes he inherited McDavid but all good teams are lucky some where along the line, we are waiting for Chia to turn this group to GOLD from Compost, it all takes time

    Fair? What say You????

  46. OmJo says:

    I’ll say it before and I’ll say it again, because I’m still bitter about the trade and the losing only makes me more bitter.

    This team could have been great with both McDavid and Hall in the top 6. I have no reason to not believe they would have been able to counteract any defensive deficiencies by the absence of Larsson (edit: and addition of a Day like Demers), along with Talbot, with the offense they produce. With McDavid, Draisaitl and Hall making up half your top 6, you’re the successors of the Pittsburgh Penguins. Now, we’re middle of the pack. Playoff contenders rather than clear Stanley Cup contenders. We can’t score. We’re big, but slow. And if opposing teams capitalize on any mistake by our defence or goaltender, I don’t think we have the confidence to respond on the scoresheet. And we have 2 boat anchor contracts in important F and D positions for the next few years that make it difficult to right the ship. 10M locked away in contracts that seem immovable and obvious buyout candidates.

    If only we have the same health in 15-16 as we did in 16-17. Oh well.

  47. Dustylegnd says:

    TheVengeFulOne: You can be a good hockey player and an asshole. I think people put too much value on character some times. I know guys who were fantastic teammates, but shitty people.

    Remind me again where the facts are about Hall being an asshole or a bad team mate? Just curious what evidence you can provide?

  48. TheVengeFulOne says:

    Dustylegnd:
    How about we all stop and think about the roster that was in place when Chia took over this team

    Facts:

    a) We had 2 Skill wingers, no true #1 centre, and spare parts, seriously go back and look at that forward roster, it is shocking

    b) The defence was an absolute joke, and the 1 proven piece we had was dealt away for pennies on the dollar by MacTavish, who knew right shot D were such a limited NHL commodity eh MacTavish

    c) Ben Scrivens and Victor Fasthwere our Goalies

    That was 3 years ago people, lets look at some more Chia facts:

    a) Absolute value deal for a true #1 Goalie and signed him to a very fair and value contract extension

    b) Took Scrivens and turned him into Kassian…Value grit and some scoring

    c) Acquired Marron for a suspect and a pick and convinces the Ducks to pay for 50% of the points great trade

    d) overpaid for Larsson, no doubt about it, but decided repeating the same behaviour and expecting a different outcome was indeed insanity….I mean seriously something had to change

    e) Signed Lucic, god awful decision that currently looks disastrous because of the way it hamstrings us cap wise

    f) found Benning for Free, looks to be a great acquisition

    g) Found Cagguila for free looks to be a decent decision

    h) seems to have stocked the hell out of the D cupboards in Stockton with the possibility of 2 future NHL D men currently learning

    To Sum up:

    a) #1 Golaie for cheap
    b)found size and skill for a bag of pucks Kass and Marooon
    c) found a #5 D man maybe top 4 for free Benning
    d) restocked the farm system

    To say Chia froze the roster is just not accurate, he has taken a steaming pile of SHIT and turned it into compost, yes he inherited McDavid but all good teams are lucky some where along the line, we are waiting for Chia to turn this group to GOLD from Compost, it all takes time

    Fair?What say You????

    I think he was tracking well til this summer, with one major mistake in Reinhart. This summer was Tambellini bad, and we are seeing the results.

  49. OmJo says:

    TheVengeFulOne: You can be a good hockey player and an asshole. I think people put too much value on character some times. I know guys who were fantastic teammates, but shitty people.

    Dustylegnd: Remind me again where the facts are about Hall being an asshole or a bad team mate? Just curious what evidence you can provide?

    To this day there is still no evidence that was the case. I think there’s more evidence of the contrary.

  50. TheVengeFulOne says:

    Dustylegnd: Remind me again where the facts are about Hall being an asshole or a bad team mate? Just curious what evidence you can provide?

    I didn’t say whether he was or wasn’t, just making a point.

  51. Dustylegnd says:

    OmJo,

    Roger, was not sure how to take your comment, thanks for clarifying

  52. OmJo says:

    Dustylegnd,

    My bad, should have been more clear the locker room cancer comment was sarcasm lol

  53. Side says:

    Dustylegnd:

    To say Chia froze the roster is just not accurate, he has taken a steaming pile of SHIT and turned it into compost, yes he inherited McDavid but all good teams are lucky some where along the line, we are waiting for Chia to turn this group to GOLD from Compost, it all takes time

    Fair?What say You????

    But time is the biggest issue here when you have McDavid on your team. Chiarelli has tremendous pressure to make the team better, now. Instead, the team became worse since the last season and it’s not like there wasn’t opportunities to improve the roster over the offseason. Chia put too much hope in his younger, unproven players to make steps forward this season and so far it’s not paying off. There may still be time for it to turn around, as we have seen the Oilers have been competitive in most of their games so far and have lost games because of individuals having colossal brain farts rather than getting stomped in every facet of the game. But still, Chiarelli has to improve the team now, there’s no time to wait for shit to turn into gold when you’re using up McDavid time.

  54. SwedishPoster says:

    I find it very hard to blame Larsson on the equalizer. He was defending a 2 on 1 with Sidney Crosby carrying the puck with speed through the neutral zone, imo he gave up an acceptable shooting lane considering the situation he was facing and sid didn’t have a passing lane until the last moment and from his backhand. Not a lot of players that delivers that pass with such quality Crosby did at full speed off his backhand.
    Did Larsson play it perfectly? No. But he played it ok and imo hard to make him the culprit with his teammates losing four guys on the wrong side of the puck with less than thirty seconds left of the second period and puck control in the offensive end. Nurse was in a really bad position, him flying into the corner doesn’t really make sense at all, especially considering game situation, but it’s also a real weak play on the boards by Drai in the neutral zone and with so little left I don’t love Maroons badly executed low percentage play that sent the puck into the Pens hands.
    The whole play just reeks of bad game management and decisionmaking which has been plaguing the team all season. I don’t think they play bad overall they are just not sharp in key situations, be it scoring chances wasted from being too cute, special teams or not recognizing the time and situation in the game and give up untimely goals.

  55. godot10 says:

    On last night:
    1) Maroon CANNOT miss the net and/or McDavid on his shot/pass late in the 2nd period. He should know that Nurse is on the rush (that is the system, defensemen joining the rush) Maroon only passes to McDavid unfortunately. Maroon didn’t look for the trailer.
    2) Caggiula lost and eased up on Malkin on the power play goal. Kessel and Malkin both rushed the middle and Caggiula let Malkin do it.

    In general:
    1) This Yamamoto nonsense has to stop now. It was nonsense a month ago. It is basically insanity today. He is a year in the CHL and another in the AHL away from the NHL. It has been a monstrous distraction for the team. This is on the coach for letting it last for so long.

    2) Lucic HAS to be played on the 3rd line because of loss of foot speed.

    3) It was a mistake with this group of defensemen (with Sekera) injured to start the season playing Klefbom and Larsson together. Said so in the summer. I hope they stick with Nurse/Larsson and Klefbom/Benning. Klefbom tries to do too much with Sekera hurt and relies on Larsson bailing him out. Sad that it took the coach all preseason and 10 games to get here.

    4) The state of the special teams is on the coaches.

    5) Everyone Chiarelli paid is fat happy and lazy….Lucic, Kassian, and Russell.

    6) No reason to NOT give Puljujarvi a steady stable 3rd RW slot for the rest of the season. I’d like to staple him to Nugent-Hopkins, rather than Lucic and Strome, though…so maybe if Lucic, Draisaitl, Slepyshev works, maybe one can run Nugent-Hopkins Puljujarvi. But it might have to be Lucic, Strome, Puljujarvi as the 3rd line.

  56. digger50 says:

    Wonder what Herbers is doing?

    He was hired as assistant coach then simply disappeared.

  57. McSorley33 says:

    Hey, is it still early?

    Bad luck…..

    Crappy schedule?

    Personally, I think we are just running into opposition coaching that is just Brilliant.

    How some of these coaches are shutting down our 2nd , 3rd and 4th lines just defies belief…. it is likely not to continue.

  58. RexLibris says:

    New Improved Darkness: Just what would it have taken for no group of outside observers to say that it wasn’t enough?Edward Fillethands?

    Standard disclaimer whenever someone takes a retrospective straw poll of the boo bird ecosystem.

    Nice post hawk.

    Do you often edit other people’s words to help frame your interpretation?

  59. Dustylegnd says:

    Side,

    The team is worse because we are missing a legitimate #2 or #3 D man who is a true #2 puck mover and PP guy and overtime genius,

    Very difficult to find depth to replace key injuries when the previous 10 years are just a flat out draft embarrassment

    Depth scoring form last year isn’t depth scoring so far this year

    No doubt the team would be better if we had drafted Tachuck instead of Puljujarvi for this 10 mins at least, but Tachcuck is a left shot

    To me it would seem McT is being passive aggressive right now trying to push string up hill…if you pay a guy 8.5 mill he needs to drive his own line

  60. Side says:

    godot10:

    In general:
    1) This Yamamoto nonsense has to stop now. It was nonsense a month ago.It is basically insanity today. He is a year in the CHL and another in the AHL away from the NHL.It has been a monstrous distraction for the team.This is on the coach for letting it last for so long.

    It has been a monstrous distraction for the team? How?

    And how is this on Todd, at all?

  61. fifthcartel says:

    Dustylegnd,

    The Talbot, Sekera, and Maroon moves are very good, and he deserves credit for them, but this team is disappointing considering the wealth of assets he inherited. I think Kassian gets a little overrated but that’s an okay move, I don’t think it moves the needle much either away.

    Those moves are important to note, he acquired a starting goalie, top-four LHD, and complimentary top-six player for very little. That’s good!

    Unfortunately, that trend didn’t continue. The Hall, Eberle, Reinhart trades range from poor to downright awful. The Lucic and Russell contracts are disasters and the defense isn’t where it needs to be which is a huge failure considering what he has already sent out.

    Those are all problematic moves which have lasting effects, and I’m not sure he’s the one to steer the team into a contender.

  62. Dino says:

    When you fail to prepare you prepare to fail.

    I get moving eberle for cap reasons (I guess?). But you’re telling me they couldn’t go out and sign a Jagr or Vrbata or Williams,etc? You lose a sure 50 point scorer and don’t replace him more adequately? You expect rookies and sophomores to do that?

    Sorry but this offseason was only a preparation to fail. What a shame considering you have a generational talent.

  63. RexLibris says:

    Bag of Pucks: Agree that this would be the crux of the argument for “it’s management’s fault.”

    What puzzles me about this is 1) Eberle didn’t score alongside Connor, so he was essentially 2RW. And a lack of scoring from the second line has not been a core factor in the current woes? and 2) Nurse has effectively stepped up his game which is what Chiarelli bet on rather than sending out assets for a temporary injury replacement for Sekera.

    But if you look at what is ailing this club: poor special teams, no depth scoring from the bottom 6, 4Cs playing in the Top 6, inconsistent goaltending, etc. All but the last factor could be directly attributed to coaching or lack thereof.

    This roster is not that drastically different from last year’s personnel and yet they’ve fallen from division winner to basement dweller. We’re going to attribute that drastic and rapid of a decline to not addressing two roster gaps? Seems like a stretch to me. The more obvious factor seems to be the coaching and deployment of the players, rather than the quality of the players themselves.

    Fair points, but aren’t you saying that it is the fault of coaching when they too were here last year?

    I’ve not been all that pleased with some of what McLellan has done, but overall I see the same gripes from other fans around the league regarding their coaching lineup decisions.

    And you have a good point that it hasn’t been the 2nd line that’s been an issue so much as the defense and tertiary scoring, my counter to that would be that they moved an asset from that secondary scoring role for the sole player asset who is now not able to provide any tertiary scoring in Strome. So it was a move made that need not have been.

    And if Yamamoto stays past 9 games and continues to struggle, if Puljujarvi doesn’t demonstrate a clear ability in the AHL that demands he be recalled, then the lack of having a veteran 2nd line RW may become an issue as we move into December and onwards.

  64. Side says:

    Dustylegnd:
    Side,

    The team is worse because we are missing a legitimate #2 or #3 D man who is a true #2 puck mover and PP guy and overtime genius,

    Very difficult to find depth to replace key injuries when the previous 10 years are just a flat out draft embarrassment

    Depth scoring form last year isn’t depth scoring so far this year

    No doubt the team would be better if we had drafted Tachuck instead of Puljujarvi for this 10 mins at least, but Tachcuck is a left shot

    To me it would seem McT is being passive aggressive right now trying to push string up hill…if you pay a guy 8.5 mill he needs to drive his own line

    Well, it would be a lot easier to get a legit #2 or #3 D man if you had assets to trade for one. Instead of using some of those assets to get someone like Reinhart. These kinds of mistakes Chiarelli can’t keep making.

  65. jtblack says:

    Russell has regressed. Or fallen back to normal. The Offense he supresses is his own teams.

    Until we get a goal or two from a non McDavid line / PP. It wont matter. CMD is on pace for 97 points.

    LT: why dont you guve Nurse some Blame on the late goal? No need to pinch there. It was a 2 on 1 He was never getting the puck. That goal was a back breaker.

    Nurse does look Great BUT why does he chase his own dump ins? I have never seen it lead to anythimg but chaos. I billet a AAA Midget player. If their D chase their own dump ins, they get benched – Full Stop. I think T Mac should adopt this rule 🙂

  66. Spoils says:

    too many players we are hoping will be better than last year – Jesse, KY, Caggiula, Sleppy, Kassian, Strome… maybe we get a player we can “hope” will do what they did last year.

    add one or two proven scorers please.

    that is all. the team is close. couple extra goals here and there. we go from winning 1/3 to winning 2/3.

    it is a thin line between love and hate.

  67. godot10 says:

    jtblack:

    LT: why dont you guve Nurse some Blame on the late goal? No need to pinch there.It was a 2 on 1He was never getting the puck.That goal was a back breaker.

    >

    Nurse was playing the system. Maroon made a bad decision about where to go with the puck. He cannot miss the pass if he makes that play.

  68. digger50 says:

    I feel there is an emotional / psychological component missing or perhaps running its course with this team.

    Started with Peter and Todd taking over and treating the present core as individual losers based on previous team results as opposed to granting all a fresh start. There was definitely something going on there that affected performance, with Nuge the only one who perseveres.

    Some of that plague continues. Just my opinion:

    Some players who were promised a chance are not happy they are not given a proper chance in the top six.
    Some are not happy with the long rookie try-outs
    Kassian is pegged as fourth line regardless of his efforts, and seems to have drppped his performance to match.
    Strome is confused, wants to settle in on a position and a line. Jokinen is with him.
    Lucic is not leading – why not?
    Guys are wondering why Pak is on the ice.

    I was all over Peters lack of results this summer. Too late now. Now we need coaching and all these little items are fixable with a good coach

  69. LMHF#1 says:

    This is a team right now with no swagger or hunger.

    You can get by on either – you can do nothing if you lack both.

    This group needs to develop an attitude. The Coach doesn’t seem to want to offer one, so it will have to come from the room.

    Until they go into a game against a team like Pittsburgh expecting to win – either through working to the point of not being stopped or knowing that if they show up and do their thing, they win – they’re going to be stuck in the mud.

    This team should have the attitude of the 98 Yankees and it seems to have the attitude of the 2010 Oilers.

  70. OriginalPouzar says:

    Bag of Pucks:
    Watched Lucic a lot in Boston and he was one of the players that could actually take over a game individually and dominate it when the spirit moved him. What happened to that player?

    He’s only 29 years old ffs. This shouldn’t be an age decline issue.

    This is 100% speculation but I’ve been thinking it for a while – i think that Milan Lucic, the hockey player (and maybe the person) changed when his father committed suicide.

    We know that even hit him very hard as he’s expressed it on occasion.

  71. classict says:

    LMHF#1:
    This is a team right now with no swagger or hunger.

    And here I thought that’s why we were paying Lucic 6 million for 7 years… 😉

  72. LMHF#1 says:

    SwedishPoster,

    The issue with the play Larsson made is that he could have had Crosby or forced the pass early enough that it likely wouldn’t have succeeded. Standing there like he did and only getting a stick down is a screw up.

    With that said, I’m way more pissed at how he handled the 3-2 goal. That was utterly horrible.

  73. LMHF#1 says:

    One more thing – two guys had the game on their stick in alone with the goalie tonight – Kassian and McDavid.

    Both went to their backhand…come on guys. When you have time and space, barring the goalie cheating horribly, YOU GO FOREHAND. If Kassian goes forehand, they win going away. If McDavid goes forehand, they at least get to OT.

    #97 had one of his weirdest games last night. Several ugly passes to the opposition and random giveaways. I’m inclined to believe he’s forcing it because others aren’t doing their job, but I don’t know. He also almost never got the puck at his own blue, which is key to the Oilers transition game.

  74. LMHF#1 says:

    classict,

    The guy seems to have turned into a mute for some reason. *shrug*

  75. godot10 says:

    LMHF#1:
    SwedishPoster,

    The issue with the play Larsson made is that he could have had Crosby or forced the pass early enough that it likely wouldn’t have succeeded. Standing there like he did and only getting a stick down is a screw up.

    With that said, I’m way more pissed at how he handled the 3-2 goal. That was utterly horrible.

    Caggiula stopped skating…let Malkin go….which made it a two on one. Larsson was not anticipating that Caggiula would give up on covering Malkin.

  76. Bag of Pucks says:

    RexLibris: Fair points, but aren’t you saying that it is the fault of coaching when they too were here last year?

    Yes, but coaching can have a shelf life. It’s a constant struggle to keep the players motivated AND happy, to keep the opposition guessing as to your tactics, and to keep the players elevating.

    This is where I agree with Digger50. Why is Lucic guaranteed a second line spot while Kassian can’t elevate above the 4th line? Why is Yamamota even in the lineup when he’s not scoring? The players see these things and if affects their motivation.

    But the biggest issue is lumping your two best Cs together and then feeding them a hard match against the Sidney Crosby’s of the world. Last night Leon could’ve been feasting against a softer matchup as a 2 or 3C and in the process making his two Ws better. But it’s all the eggs in one basket with MacLellan. The part of this that is supreme idiocy imo is taking a player who everyone acknowledges is the best passer on the team (equally proficient backhand and forehand) and parking him on the RW along the boards.

    Playmaking and creativity is driven down the middle of the ice. This is why the best players go to C to begin with. Everyone’s blaming the wingers when the reality is MacLellan could improve 2 of his Ws asap by simply better deploying his second best offensive player in the position he wants to play and is best suited for.

  77. digger50 says:

    Problem with loading up top one or two lines is there is no help left to support those guys we hoped would step forward

    Out of:

    Caggiula
    Sleppy
    Strome
    Jessie
    Kassian

    Connor can absolutely take one of these wingers and make it work. My pick is Caggiula.

    Leon can Absolutely take one and make it work. (or two if you want to bump Lucic)

    That leaves Nuge to anchor a line or float as needed.

    Drai and Yammer as top RW need to change.

    Letestu
    Khaira
    Malone

    Pakarinen
    Jokinen

  78. Réal Goudenyéu says:

    How often do players take the white board from the coach on the bench and use it to draw up their on plays? I dunno if I’ve ever seen that before…

  79. LMHF#1 says:

    godot10: Caggiula stopped skating…let Malkin go….which made it a two on one.Larsson was not anticipating that Caggiula would give up on covering Malkin.

    He was also standing completely still. You can’t do that with Malkin where he was.

  80. OriginalPouzar says:

    Condors play again tonight – hoping that Jesse is able to hit the score-sheet a few times – lets keep that confidence up.

  81. russ99 says:

    TheVengeFulOne: I think he was tracking well til this summer, with one major mistake in Reinhart. This summer was Tambellini bad, and we are seeing the results.

    Who was out there that could realistically make a difference?

    Caveat: enough with the Demers nonsense, and let’s not take this as yet another opportunity to slam Russell who helped us win in the playoffs.

    Shattenkirk was singing with the Rangers, off the table.

    The Leon signing delay and the fact we needed one year deals due to being at the cap next year precluded signing most if any FAs on days one or two.

    The system is barren at forward and it needs to be fixed for the 7 years we’re at the cap, so we can’t move high picks, like Calgary did for Hamonic.

    I refuse to believe a 40+ year old forward at the end of his career (take your pick) would have made a real difference, or more difference than Yamamoto or Puljujarvi.

    So we’re talking another forward instead of Jokinen and better cheap defense options than the AHL crew we signed.

    My take: no saviours out there then or now so McLellan needs to stop slamming the group and do a better job of putting the team in positions to succeed.

    The painfully obvious moves everyone can see but the Oilers: split up McDavid and Draisaitl and send Yamamoto back to Spokane.

  82. LMHF#1 says:

    russ99,

    You trade some combination of Eberle, JP and next year’s #1 for an RHD.

    You sign a veteran forward or 2. My choice was always Justin Williams.

    AND – if you’re going to trade Hopkins, you trade him this past summer, not next.

    The offseason was a mistake. Slow-playing this team and relying on rookies/inexperience is a mistake. Not going for it at the deadline last year was a mistake. The GM is not on a good run.

  83. bendelson says:

    Another tough result last night.

    I’m reading so much about the failures of Chia and the giant holes in the roster but in reality, I am seeing this team fail due to mental errors, not necessarily due to roster construction. Good players making poor decisions at key moments, leading to bad results. The Klefbom pinch the other night is a prime example – simply horrible game management Oscar.

    I also suspect the coaching staff likely hit the panic button WAY too early (game 3 or 4?) which hasn’t helped anyone and IMO has lead to many squeezing their sticks, lacking confidence/doubting themselves – passing when the smart play is a shot, and shooting when the smart play is a pass. It doesn’t take much… I’ll refer to Strome last night as an example. He received the puck in the slot, hesitated for a moment and had his shot deflected away from danger by the closing defenseman. Meanwhile, Sleppy was wide open at the side of the net, ready for the easy tap-in. When things are clicking, that’s an easy touch pass for Strome and a goal for Sleppy.

    That said, the PK is terrible – which is a problem that actually goes back to last year, though it was well hidden by Talbot killing it last season when down a man (if my memory serves).

    So I don’t know folks… maybe I’m looking for excuses when in reality, the team just isn’t that good.
    Time will tell I suppose. I’m so conflicted.

  84. Pink Socks says:

    19-97-98
    27-93-29
    91-18-58
    16-55-44

    25-6
    77-83
    4-whatever

    Drai and McDavid must be split up, and I disagree that JP should not be brought up. Get him into the lineup ffs and send Yamamoto back where he should have been a month ago. Further, as much as I am a fan of Lucic and defended him over the past season +10 games, if he isn’t going to produce on the goal sheet he needs to completely lose his shit on some unsuspecting opponent. Go get suspended and cost the team a 5 minute power play, and in the same breath give the team that “swagger” back that it had last March-May. If the team is built to be fast (it isn’t), then play fast. Conversely, if the team is built to be big, then for everything good and holy, play big. Right now this team is playing small and slow.

    The team will get better, our fancies tell us as much, but when the pucks aren’t finding the back of the net and foolish decisions are made defensively, at least be a difficult team to play against. Last night was a travesty despite the phantom RNH penalty, the team was not at all difficult to play against. Reminded me tremendously of 2006-2015.

  85. Kaptain Vikarious says:

    StixMalone:
    I already am looking at the draft and it’s November for crying out loud! They better get their sh*t together on AND OFF the ice (some here might know) this month. Sort things out boys cause the stupid trade winds are blowing and they might have hurricane effects….

    Nurse certainly is stepping up!

  86. Kinger_Oil.redux says:

    Pink Socks:

    Further, as much as I am a fan of Lucic and defended him over the past season +10 games, if he isn’t going to produce on the goal sheet he needs to completely lose his shit on some unsuspecting opponent.

    – Lucic has 5 points in 11 games, 4.3% S/H%. Players don’t go from 14.3% career to 4% in 1 year

  87. Pink Socks says:

    Had to respond to this as I believe you are mostly on point.

    godot10:
    On last night:
    1) Maroon CANNOT miss the net and/or McDavid on his shot/pass late in the 2nd period.He should know that Nurse is on the rush (that is the system, defensemen joining the rush) Maroon only passes to McDavid unfortunately.Maroon didn’t look for the trailer.

    Agree, but if it cashes then Maroon is the hero. He should have fed it to Nurse who needed to pull up higher in the slot, but point taken, that decision was too high risk.

    godot10:
    2) Caggiula lost and eased up on Malkin on the power play goal.Kessel and Malkin both rushed the middle and Caggiula let Malkin do it.

    I couldn’t believe my eyes on the replay from the rafters. Caggiula didn’t lose Malkin, he never picked him up in the first place. If he is going to be on the PK he needs to take his head out of his ass on the rush back.

    godot10:
    In general:
    1) This Yamamoto nonsense has to stop now. It was nonsense a month ago.It is basically insanity today. He is a year in the CHL and another in the AHL away from the NHL.It has been a monstrous distraction for the team.This is on the coach for letting it last for so long.

    Agree except for the distraction bit. I’m not sure that is the case as much as Yamamoto is killing any line he is placed on. Time for some development.

    godot10:
    2) Lucic HAS to be played on the 3rd line because of loss of foot speed.

    Or with Draisaitl, and with some tenacity.

    godot10:
    3) It was a mistake with this group of defensemen (with Sekera) injured to start the season playing Klefbom and Larsson together.Said so in the summer.I hope they stick with Nurse/Larsson and Klefbom/Benning.Klefbom tries to do too much with Sekera hurt and relies on Larsson bailing him out.Sad that it took the coach all preseason and 10 games to get here.

    25-6 and 77-83 is a much better look.

    godot10:
    4) The state of the special teams is on the coaches.

    Early last season I would come unglued watching our powerplay and almost fainted when Letestu turned out to be the answer. The PP is a minor tweak from working again. The PK on the other hand is a mess. 16-55, 93-44, 97-91/36 is fine, but the overall whiteboard strategy is garbage and must be fixed. 100% on the coaching staff.

    godot10:
    5) Everyone Chiarelli paid is fat happy and lazy….Lucic, Kassian, and Russell.

    Fat and happy perhaps, lazy I don’t buy. Regardless, each of these 3 men need to figure it out and TMac needs to not hesitate to put them in the pressbox for a game if that is what is needed.

    godot10:
    6) No reason to NOT give Puljujarvi a steady stable 3rd RW slot for the rest of the season.I’d like to staple him to Nugent-Hopkins, rather than Lucic and Strome, though…so maybe if Lucic, Draisaitl, Slepyshev works, maybe one can run Nugent-Hopkins Puljujarvi.But it might have to be Lucic, Strome, Puljujarvi as the 3rd line.

    Or use the tiny sample size from last season and give him a few games with 19-97. At this point the lineup shuffle has to change and remain consistent for more than a period or a game. To have Pak over Khaira/Malone and Yamamoto over JP is not working, so why it has continued is beyond me.

  88. Cassandra says:

    The good news is that the Canucks absolutely dominated the Devils last night. The Corsi attempts were 63-34 (65%) with similar scoring chance ratio.

    The sad news is that even with his team getting dominated when he was off the ice, Taylor Hall was 15-12 in Corsi with a similarly good scoring chance ratio. He also had points on both Devil goals. The idea that he was traded for Larsson is, was, and will always be too ludicrous to believe.

    The bad news is that the Canucks might be better than we expected. The hill might be harder to climb if the Canucks do not suck as expected. Green sure looks like a good coach.

    As much as I hate Chiarelli and how he sucked all the joy at of hockey for the rest of eternity, this start really sucks. There wasn’t a lot of joy last year, but it was better than this. And the sad part is that there is no recourse. If the team fails, Chiarelli will do something stupid. If the team doesn’t fail, Chiarelli will keep his job. It is a lose-lose situation.

    The only way out of the mess was for the team to fail last year before Chiarelli could be ensconced.

    I still think the team will make the playoffs, or at least make it close, but what I want is a dominant team, and that isn’t going to happen now.

  89. Pink Socks says:

    Kinger_Oil.redux: – Lucic has 5 points in 11 games,4.3% S/H%.Players don’t go from 14.3% career to 4% in 1 year

    I see his SH% at 7%, so one more tally and he’s at his career shooting percentage. His 5 points also include 3 second assists. I like the player, don’t get me wrong, but he is just existing at this point, not making a difference like the Lucic of past.

  90. Cassandra says:

    The coaching decisions on the powerplay are mystifying. Every other team in the universe loads up their first power play unit with their best players and gives them the first minute and change every chance they get. Splitting up the best players makes no sense.

    But it does show how little front line talent this team has. If you load up the first power play unit like every other team does, the second unit is going to be terrible, because the Oilers have so few skill players. The Oilers might be the only team other than Vegas without enough skill players for two power play units. Think about that for a second.

    Chiarelli is an awful general manager. One of the worst of all time.

  91. Pink Socks says:

    Cassandra:

    As much as I hate Chiarelli and how he sucked all the joy at of hockey for the rest of eternity

    Taylor Hall being traded has sucked all the joy out of hockey for the rest of eternity?

    What if the team had Hall and missed the playoffs last year and this year and for 3 more years? Would it be more enjoyable for you?

  92. GriffCity says:

    Scoring has been a major issue this season, hard to say otherwise. Last season I dont know that we were that much better but rather we were able to outscore most of our mistakes. With a pathetically low goals for, it’s hard to imagine any team winning when scoring once or twice a game and thats it.

    Todd has shown willingness to shake the roster up, why not put Nuge on the top line with Mcdavid? I know this has been talked about many times already. It makes sense. It makes mroe sense since he’s actually scoring a few goals this year.

    I guess we should probably send Yamamoto back to the WHL. I really, really like this kid but based on how things are going, perhaps recalling JP would be at worst a wash, while saving a year of ELC for Yamo.

    These are the lines as they should be at least tried IMO:

    Maroon – McD – Nuge
    Lucic – Drai – JP
    Caggulia – Strome – Kassian
    Jokinen – Letestu – Slepyshev/Pakirinen

    Ideally we would like to have more options at RW, but here we are.

  93. Pink Socks says:

    Cassandra:
    The coaching decisions on the powerplay are mystifying.Every other team in the universe loads up their first power play unit with their best players and gives them the first minute and change every chance they get.Splitting up the best players makes no sense.

    But it does show how little front line talent this team has.If you load up the first power play unit like every other team does, the second unit is going to be terrible, because the Oilers have so few skill players.The Oilers might be the only team other than Vegas without enough skill players for two power play units.Think about that for a second.

    Chiarelli is an awful general manager.One of the worst of all time.

    29-97-93-19-77 (best skill)
    91-18-27-55-83 (2nd unit)

    Conversely, Penguins if they load up:

    Kessel-Crosby-Malkin-Guentzel-Letang (best skill)
    Rust-Sheary-Hornqvist-Shultz-Maata (2nd unit)

    IMHO, I don’t see a big difference. It isn’t the skill, it’s the batshit crazy rinse and repeat without changing things up with your top skill.

  94. Dicky94 says:

    Cassandra,

    If they fail to make the playoffs this year, I seriously don’t think Chia will be around for the draft. Everyone knew the Oilers didn’t do enough this year to fill some holes on the roster. He gambled on some unproven players and it hasn’t work out. I’m sure the higher ups are thinking the same thing right now.

  95. TO10801 says:

    It is important to remember that the oilers had a stretch last year where they went 2-7-1 between Oct. 30 and Nov. 17. Yes that very same record they have in the past 10 games, and they still managed 103 pts and almost won the division. It is magnified because it is the start of the season, but lets just see what happens when the PDO inevitably evens out.

    Last year there was also panic about the PP and the PK was not great all year. I think it is probable that this team will be at .500 by mid December and then it is just a race to the finish line. The team needs a bounce or two and they will come.

    Finally, during the bad stretch last year the team scored 19(!!!!!) goals. They have 21 during this years streak. Last year the team was a strong offensive team. They may not score as many as last season, but they sure as hell are going to score more than 21 every 10 games.

  96. Cassandra says:

    Pink Socks: Taylor Hall being traded has sucked all the joy out of hockey for the rest of eternity?

    What if the team had Hall and missed the playoffs last year and this year and for 3 more years? Would it be more enjoyable for you?

    The day Hall was traded was the day I was given the “gift” of sight.

    If Hall was never traded I would not know the future and hence it would be more enjoyable. Likewise, if Hall had never been traded, the team would be better, and hence it would be more enjoyable. Win-win.

    Your hypothetical was never possible.

  97. Kinger_Oil.redux says:

    Pink Socks: I see his SH% at 7%, so one more tally and he’s at his career shooting percentage.His 5 points also include 3 second assists.I like the player, don’t get me wrong, but he is just existing at this point, not making a difference like the Lucic of past.

    – For sure he hasn’t been a truclent power forward who takes games over, and scares people

    – On NHL its’ 4.3% vs 14.4 career that’s a big drop off regardless of which Lucic he is now

    https://www.nhl.com/player/milan-lucic-8473473

  98. Pink Socks says:

    Cassandra: The day Hall was traded was the day I was given the “gift” of sight.

    If Hall was never traded I would not know the future and hence it would be more enjoyable.Likewise, if Hall had never been traded, the team would be better, and hence it would be more enjoyable.Win-win.

    Your hypothetical was never possible.

    Please. You were given the gift of sight? Please also then gift me the lotto number oh clairvoyant one.

    You can’t say the team would have been better; just the same I can’t say the team would have been worse. Despite your gift, conjecture isn’t excused from one side of an opinion when there is absolutely zero data to support your opinion. You can run all of Hall’s fancy stats but you can’t run them on a team with Hall, minus Larsson, with the current roster.

  99. Pink Socks says:

    Kinger_Oil.redux: – For sure he hasn’t been a truclent power forward who takes games over, and scares people

    – On NHL its’ 4.3%vs 14.4 careerthat’s a big drop off regardless of which Lucic he is now

    https://www.nhl.com/player/milan-lucic-8473473

    That is my mistake, I was looking at only his 5×5 SH% not taking into consideration his PP shots. You are correct sir. But my point is still, I like the player, I just want him to be a complete asshole on the ice like he has in the past.

  100. jtblack says:

    Cassandra,

    ” joy at of hockey for the rest of eternity, this start really sucks. There wasn’t a lot of joy last year, ”

    I hope you find Peace. If a 103 pt season and Gm 7 of the 2nd round won’t do it, pretty sure Nothing will. Could find a new team to pull for?

  101. jake70 says:

    Réal Goudenyéu:
    How often do players take the white board from the coach on the bench and use it to draw up their on plays? I dunno if I’ve ever seen that before…

    Just had a vision of Hall grabbing a whiteboard from Eakins, then lofting it back at him over his shoulder after drawing up the play.

  102. Scungilli Slushy says:

    There is a perfect storm of factors that come together in the failure so far and the team playing uptight.

    I’m not a fan of the ‘swagger’ meme the players mention. Swagger is cockiness to me. To me it’s ‘passion to not be beat personally’ so they can win as a team, and a ‘hunger’ to score that is missing – thinking too much and second guessing all round and being too passive around the net, deferential. The first two things lead to success, and confidence grows out of success.

    It will come, but as said might be too late this year. It was said by many during the summer that this year might be another transition year and perhaps not a good one, largely because of cap considerations looking ahead.

    Chiarelli and McLellan have to make decisions on the non core players this year with upcoming contracts and find the value role players to fill out the team, with two heavy contracts next season and other big contracts and NMC’s to boot.

    They can’t do that if the players don’t play enough, and propping the team up with one year vets does nothing for the heart of the contracts of the McD / Drai Oilers, even if it meant a bit of a playoff run again. Short term pain, long term gain. It sucks but it is truth.

    ___________

    When I watch Lucic I see a guy who looks to be struggling physically. He takes care of himself so I don’t think it’s his age or lifestyle. If you’ve ever had back issues it really affects your legs. I hope it isn’t so, but the issues with his skating and also handling the puck (which was a strength of his) would be affected if his congenital back issues are getting to him. He looks stiff as a board out there and seems to tire/ lose energy. I’m starting to wonder if LTIR might happen down the road and make the contract moot at some point. JMO.

    Yama definetely has skill and loves to get chances, but the rest of his game is miles away from helpful at the level he’s being played at. A one dimensional offensive player has to put up points all the time or it’s not worth it overall. He isn’t getting points, time to develop some more.

    If sorting out who is who was the risky plan stick to it. Send KY down, let JP force his way up with his play. Play the guys being assessed more and let’s see what we’ve got. If this year was sacrificed make it worth it, find the guys you want to move forward with and get the roster balanced and deep for next year. Another losing season will not damage anyone long term and might be unavoidable at this point. I want to see that picture after all this time.

  103. Oilin4 says:

    Dustylegnd:
    How about we all stop and think about the roster that was in place when Chia took over this team

    Facts:

    a) We had 2 Skill wingers, no true #1 centre, and spare parts, seriously go back and look at that forward roster, it is shocking

    b) The defence was an absolute joke, and the 1 proven piece we had was dealt away for pennies on the dollar by MacTavish, who knew right shot D were such a limited NHL commodity eh MacTavish

    c) Ben Scrivens and Victor Fasthwere our Goalies

    That was 3 years ago people, lets look at some more Chia facts:

    a) Absolute value deal for a true #1 Goalie and signed him to a very fair and value contract extension

    b) Took Scrivens and turned him into Kassian…Value grit and some scoring

    c) Acquired Marron for a suspect and a pick and convinces the Ducks to pay for 50% of the points great trade

    d) overpaid for Larsson, no doubt about it, but decided repeating the same behaviour and expecting a different outcome was indeed insanity….I mean seriously something had to change

    e) Signed Lucic, god awful decision that currently looks disastrous because of the way it hamstrings us cap wise

    f) found Benning for Free, looks to be a great acquisition

    g) Found Cagguila for free looks to be a decent decision

    h) seems to have stocked the hell out of the D cupboards in Stockton with the possibility of 2 future NHL D men currently learning

    To Sum up:

    a) #1 Golaie for cheap
    b)found size and skill for a bag of pucks Kass and Marooon
    c) found a #5 D man maybe top 4 for free Benning
    d) restocked the farm system

    To say Chia froze the roster is just not accurate, he has taken a steaming pile of SHIT and turned it into compost, yes he inherited McDavid but all good teams are lucky some where along the line, we are waiting for Chia to turn this group to GOLD from Compost, it all takes time

    Fair?What say You????

    Implicit in your argument is that Chia gets credit for McD and Drai, which he shouldn’t. Imagine the roster if Chia does nothing but sign the most reasonable free agents at the time to fill the obvious holes:

    FA – 97 – 29
    4 – 93 – 14
    FA – Barzal – FA
    FA – Letustu – Stephens

    77 – Demers
    2 – FA (maybe Benning anyway)
    25 – FA

    FA #1 G (many figure details on Talbot trade sorted before Chia showed up)
    Broissoit

    The only think you can really give him credit for is signing Sekera (which may have happened anyway), Letestu (which may have happened anyway), Benning (which may have happened anyway) and Talbot (which may have happened anyway), Maroon, and Kassian.

    Also, if we don’t sign him, Boston probably trades Hamilton to us rather than CGY because they no longer want to spite us. So we lose Barzal and Stephens, but D becomes:

    77 – Hamilton
    2 – Demers
    25 – FA

    I’d go to war with that, 4-93-14 as the 2Line, and all the remaining roster flexibility and cap space any time.

    Chia is the George Costanza of GMs. Do the opposite, and you’re better off. (He even looks like him).

  104. russ99 says:

    <

    Scungilli Slushy:
    There is a perfect storm of factors that come together in the failure so far and the team playing uptight.

    I’m not a fan of the ‘swagger’ meme the players mention. Swagger is cockiness to me. To me it’s ‘passion to not be beat personally’ so they can win as a team, and a ‘hunger’ to score that is missing – thinking too much and second guessing all round and being too passive around the net, deferential. The first two things lead to success, and confidence grows out of success.

    It will come, but as said might be too late this year. It was said by many during the summer that this year might be another transition year and perhaps not a good one, largely because of cap considerations looking ahead.

    Chiarelli and McLellan have to make decisions on the non core players this year with upcoming contracts and find the value role players to fill out the team, with two heavy contracts next season and other big contracts and NMC’s to boot.

    They can’t do that if the players don’t play enough, and propping the team up with one year vets does nothing for the heart of the contracts of the McD / Drai Oilers, even if it meant a bit of a playoff run again. Short term pain, long term gain. It sucks but it is truth.

    ___________

    When I watch Lucic I see a guy who looks to be struggling physically. He takes care of himself so I don’t think it’s his age or lifestyle. If you’ve ever had back issues it really affects your legs. I hope it isn’t so, but the issues with his skating and also handling the puck (which was a strength of his) would be affected if his congenital back issues are getting to him. He looks stiff as a board out there and seems to tire/ lose energy. I’m starting to wonder if LTIR might happen down the road and make the contract moot at some point. JMO.

    Yama definetely has skill and loves to get chances, but the rest of his game is miles away from helpful at the level he’s being played at. A one dimensional offensive player has to put up points all the time or it’s not worth it overall. He isn’t getting points, time to develop some more.

    If sorting out who is who was the risky plan stick to it. Send KY down, let JP force his way up with his play. Play the guys being assessed more and let’s see what we’ve got. If this year was sacrificed make it worth it, find the guys you want to move forward with and get the roster balanced and deep for next year. Another losing season will not damage anyone long term and might be unavoidable at this point. I want to see that picture after all this time.

    Good post.

    GM’s have a three year whiteboard with roster planning on it. It was never all about just this season, Stanley Cup or bust.

    I’d really like to see Todd ease off a bit and get the dynamic back from last year, he seems like he’s trying too hard to put square pegs in round holes then freaking out when it doesn’t work, like much of the the rest of the team.

    Expectations are a bitch. Hope these guys can recover and find something to build from.

  105. pts2pndr says:

    The team has from the start of the season had too many unsettled roster questions as far as line combinations. The organization then saw fit to keep a small junior player with the team which limited the teams flexibility re the penalty kill etc. The only possible team advantage that I have been able to observe by keeping Yamamoto with the team is slightly more seating space on the players bench! Playing time that should have been used to find a top two line right winger was given not earned to Yamamoto. In my opinion this sent a wrong message to the rest of the players right from the start! Not a good leadership decision to say the least. Having Yamamoto in a top six role at this point of his carreer is like taking a knife to a gun fight!

  106. Jethro Tull says:

    Pink Socks,

    Don’t worry, if i remember my greek mythology correctly, Cassandra was killed in a volcanic explosion (one myth, anyways). One can always by him a ticket to Iceland and keep one’s fingers crossed.

  107. Bag of Pucks says:

    There was a relatively famous example of a team that proved you couldn’t win with one super line. They were the LA Kings featuring the famed ‘Triple Crown Line’ and they finished 2nd (Dionne), 5th (Taylor) and 7th (Simmer) in overall league scoring in 1980-81. Despite being the 4 seed against the 13 seeded NY Rangers, they lost in the first round of the playoffs 3 games to 1.

    If we continue along the super line course that MacLellan has set for this team, I propose we call McDavid, Draisaitl and Maroon ‘The Crown Royal’ line. As the losses will definitely drive us to drink and it’s allegedly LT’s favourite sip.

  108. geowal says:

    It’s not apparent so far this season, but I always thought the Swedes have potential to be value contracts

  109. Bag of Pucks says:

    Oilin4

    Chia is the George Costanza of GMs. Do the opposite, and you’re better off. (He even looks like him).

    This photo with Chia’s head on it would be DAMN funny.

    https://giftsear.ch/uploads/large/george-costanza-timeless-art-of-seduction.jpg

  110. geowal says:

    Larsson played the pass on the 2-2 goal, he was just ineffective at it.

  111. Pink Socks says:

    Jethro Tull:
    Pink Socks,

    Don’t worry, if i remember my greek mythology correctly, Cassandra was killed in a volcanic explosion (one myth, anyways). One can always by him a ticket to Iceland and keep one’s fingers crossed.

    I think you are right (on the mythology), however with this newfound gift of sight, Cassandra may be able to see it before it happens and escape certain tragedy.

  112. ashley says:

    Blaming a goal on the last man back is common, but looks at goal scoring plays superficially. There were so many errors on that play any one of which, if not made, would not have resulted in the puck in the back of the net.

    2v1 is a bit of a crapshoot. You have to cheat and make your best guess, but the chance of a goal against is high. The real analysis starts long before then. Why did an uncontested 2v1 happen?

  113. Bag of Pucks says:

    By the way, I’m working on a hypothesis that Ryan Strome is a professional hockey player in the NHL.

    To date, I have no visual or physical evidence to support this hypothesis, but there is much in the way of anecdotal evidence (amateur draft records, Islanders media guide, etc.).

    I’ll let you know what I find out upon further investigation.

  114. Professor Q says:

    It’ll all be fine. Patience and calm. 🙂

    *takes another swig*

  115. stush18 says:

    Oilin4,

    How can you say anyone of those moves would have happened?

    We have a history of oilers gms either shitting themselves and overpaying fornplayers because we had absolutely no one (Mact and pouliot/fayne), or gms who literally just did nothing.

    I don’t think there is any reasonable way to say the oilers would have been able to sign sekera, letestu, lucic, or traded for Talbot or maroon or kassian without chiarelli.

    Whatever your opinion, he’s got a good reputation across hockey. That means something.

  116. krakman says:

    russ99: Who was out there that could realistically make a difference?

    The system is barren at forward and it needs to be fixed for the 7 years we’re at the cap, so we can’t move high picks, like Calgary did for Hamonic.

    The system is barren because Chiarelli traded as much for Reinhart as Calgary gave for Hamonic. The guy should be fired on the spot before he totally pisses everything away.

  117. Professor Q says:

    I really don’t understand why the Team Canada jerseys are getting so much flak online.

    I think they look pretty sweet, and are one of my most favourite of all time. My most favourites are the Blue and Red and the Yellow and Green jerseys. The Vancouver ones as well, as an added bonus with the Indigenous tribute they have.

    I’ve actually never like the Hockey Canada logo as the jersey logo. The little player in the maple leaf always annoyed me for some reason. Both too plain and too busy. Plus being a corporate logo it never felt right being on the jersey.

  118. commonfan29 says:

    Oilin4: I’d go to war with that, 4-93-14 as the 2Lin

    Better still, they could have run that fantastic 4-93-29 trio as the first line, with McDavid operating with Pouliot and Yak on the second.

    That’s two great lines, but McDavid maybe doesn’t win the scoring title, Drai doesn’t have a $12.5 million comp on the roster to point to, and cap hell gets staved off for a while longer.

  119. VOR says:

    Bag of Pucks:
    By the way, I’m working on a hypothesis that Ryan Strome is a professional hockey player in the NHL.

    To date, I have no visual or physical evidence to support this hypothesis, but there is much in the way of anecdotal evidence (amateur draft records, Islanders media guide, etc.).

    I’ll let you know what I find out upon further investigation.

    This is something I posted last night.

    “I wanted to take time to explain why I predicted in an earlier thread that goal scoring would start going up this year and continue to increase for some years to come. I am not sure that the current NHL scoring spree has anything to do with what I am talking about though I suspect it might. Additionally, this is my explanation of why I thought Ryan Strome for Jordan Eberle was a great deal for the Oilers without in any way taking away from Jordan Eberle’s skill.

    You have to start off knowing about work being done by Erik Lignell of the University of Gothenburg.
    He has done some very interesting work recently on high intensity skating during actual elite hockey games (that is the testing has been done on NHL players who volunteered to participate). The following link only leads to an abstract. The article is behind PubMed’s pay wall. I don’t know how many, if any of you have access so I am going to summarize it.

    https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pubmed/28557852

    Essentially what Lignell is saying is that a lot more of an elite (NHL) hockey game is played at high intensities of skating (and thus closer to anaerobic thresholds) than we might think. And how well players can hold up to these extreme skating intensities may be determinant of on ice success. Clearly, from this research the ability to handle that high intensity deteriorates in the third period and overtime. If you had players who could hold the same pace into the third period that would give your team a massive advantage. It possibly explains Connor McDavid’s dominance in overtime.

    The next step in understanding my argument is Lignell’s finding (and it is well established in the literature) that defencemen spend way more time on the ice and actually skating than forwards do but they also don’t do anywhere near as much high intensity skating per minute as forwards. Lignell goes on to explain that you can also train to get better at high intensity skating. Better yet he says you can also predict whether someone is a great high intensity skater by doing a Yo-Yo Intermittent Recovery Ice Hockey Type 1 Test. This is a shuttle test done on the ice.

    What is important to know here, for my thesis, is that a lot of NHL teams have worked all this out on their own. They have been having their scouts’ time players “high intensity” minutes. Basically, they have been working out how to impute a Yo-Yo number. Additionally, some pro leagues and junior teams have players do Yo-Yo tests and more and more NHL scouts are seeking access to those data sets pre-draft.

    What I am saying is that there has been a move towards drafting forwards with great high intensity skating capacities. We see this in the combine data where the aerobic capacity measurements are inching up and up. I am particularly interested in the average scores which are rising more dramatically than those for top performers. Most importantly the scores for forwards are rising faster than those for defencemen.

    I speculate that there is a threshold (t) where the average skating intensity score for forwards (SI-f) will exceed that for defencemen (SI-d) by a large enough margin that scoring chances will increase and with it scoring. If you think skating is important for a d-man now, just wait.

    This brings us to Ryan Strome vs Jordan Eberle. Even the naked eye tells us that Strome skates at a greater average skating intensity than Eberle. But watching Strome in the Dougie Weight coached games last year I realized the kid was pulling away in the third period. Strome wasn’t losing intensity at the same rate as the other players. It became apparent that Weight was using Strome and Quine as attackers to push the pace and wear down the opposition D.

    I assumed that the Oilers acquired Strome to be part of a third line with not just speed but extreme skating intensity (way up tempo). Tonight may be the first time we get to see Strome in that role or close to it anyway. It is my position that the more up tempo you go the more goals you will score until the league figures out how to adjust – Tampa Bay are where they are for a reason. We need more above average SI forwards not fewer and Strome is a great first step in moving to becoming a more intense skating team.”

    Last night I think you saw a version of what might be possible with Caggiula, Slepyshev and Strome. And Strome was still buzzing late in the game as his skating intensity held up. I think he needs two guys to play with who have the same ability to swarm late – I am not sure Caggiula or Slepyshev are those guys though maybe.

    I also think that last night you saw an example of a player who is capable of going just as hard in the third as in the first two periods in Malkin and that was critical in the outcome of the game.

  120. stush18 says:

    VOR,

    Do you really think a team that employs guys cuz there dedicated leaders and hard workers look into this stuff? Serious question. And great post as always VOR. I just can’t see this being the case.

    I was fine with the strome deal. Still am.

    Strome scores 40 switching between 2RW and 3C then it’s a win for me.

  121. OriginalPouzar says:

    geowal:
    It’s not apparent so far this season, but I always thought the Swedes have potential to be value contracts

    Klefbom’s contract is, without a doubt, a great value contract.

    It doesn’t go from being one of the best contracts in the league to not even a value contract due to under-performance in a 10-game stretch.

  122. VOR says:

    stush18:
    VOR,

    Do you really think a team that employs guys cuz there dedicated leaders and hard workers look into this stuff? Serious question. And great post as always VOR. I just can’t see this being the case.

    I was fine with the strome deal. Still am.

    Strome scores 40 switching between 2RW and 3C then it’s a win for me.

    I can tell you this, Kailer Yamamoto is another player who keeps coming in the third, while not blazing fast (though he has stunning edges and balance) he just keeps coming and someday that is going to matter, a lot. He killed the aerobic testing at the combine. Did the Oilers think about that in making the decision to draft him? I have no idea but he and Strome both fit my model nearly perfectly. As does Jesse Puljujarvi. The future is possibly brighter than we think and the Oilers management thinking far more sophisticated than we give it credit for.

  123. jtblack says:

    Bag of Pucks,

    “By the way, I’m working on a hypothesis that Ryan Strome is a professional hockey player in the NHL.

    To date, I have no visual or physical evidence to support this hypothesis, but there is much in the way of anecdotal evidence (amateur draft records, Islanders media guide, etc.).

    I’ll let you know what I find out upon further investigation.”

    **** This made me Laugh out Loud !!!!!!

    Good Luck with your Research. One Hockey Publication had him projected at 73 points 😉

  124. Kinger_Oil.redux says:

    VOR: The future is possibly brighter than we think and the Oilers management thinking far more sophisticated than we give it credit for.

    – Vor this is a fascinating insight. Is there any indication that the Oil would have people on staff that look at this stuff?

    – It’s an honest question, because it’s not the OBC doing this if so: are there mathy/kinesiology and/or science oriented people in the organization that we know of?

  125. Lewis Grant says:

    digger50: I feel there is an emotional / psychological component missing or perhaps running its course with this team.

    LMHF#1: This is a team right now with no swagger or hunger.

    Yeah, despite my pessimism about what already seems to be a lost season, I actually don’t think the team needs big changes (trading for 2RW, 2RD, Pacioretty, Duchene, etc.) Those changes are expensive and usually bring bad returns. On the contrary, I suspect the problem is more intangible. (That and the terrible special teams.) The only possible big change would be firing Woodcroft, but that’s not going to happen in-season. Plus, he actually coached the league’s best PP in the second half of last season.

    The team just needs its mojo and/or luck back. The underlying numbers still suggest that the luck will come back soon. The mojo is harder to determine.

    The problem is, we now have a huge hill to climb. Not insurmountable, but pretty damn tough. And if we lose to Taylor Hall’s team, the mojo level might be even lower after that. Certainly the standings deficit will be.

  126. OriginalPouzar says:

    VOR,

    Thanks for re-posting this – I forgot to go back and read it in last night’s thread.

  127. TheVengeFulOne says:

    Just read a THN article saying stromes value dropped to worthless over the summer. How does that happen?

  128. Woodguy v2.0 says:

    Kinger_Oil.redux,

    – Again, another .950 goaler. Sure there are a few shots that might be different than last year, but the string of goalering against us is much more of a factor than any difference that change in tactics can be attributed.

    This assumes that the goalie is “rising to the occasion” almost every time.

    Here is the SV% for the game for every goalie that EDM has faced and then I’ve subtracted their SV% for the year.

    If its positive the goalie had a better game vs EDM than vs his average.

    If its negative the goalie had a worse game than average.

    SV% for all situations.

    TEAM DIFFERENCE
    CGY 0.002
    VAN 0.027
    WPG 0.009
    OTT 0.077
    CAR 0.044
    CHI 0.011
    PHI 0.067
    PIT 0.059
    DAL -0.063
    WSH 0.031
    PIT 0.038

    DAL (Bishop) was significantly below his average vs EDM

    CGY (Smith) and WPG (Hellebyck) were very close to their average this year.

    CHI (Crawford) was slightly above average.

    The rest – VAN (Markstrom), OTT (Anderson), CAR (Darling), PHI (Elliott), PIT (Murray – twice), and WSH (Holtby) were all significantly above their average this season.

    Murray has had 3 games over .950 this year. 2 of them are vs EDM.

    I know variance plays a part in this, but I do not think its nearly as much as you are assuming.

  129. TheVengeFulOne says:

    russ99: Who was out there that could realistically make a difference?

    Caveat: enough with the Demers nonsense, and let’s not take this as yet another opportunity to slam Russell who helped us win in the playoffs.

    Shattenkirk was singing with the Rangers, off the table.

    The Leon signing delay and the fact we needed one year deals due to being at the cap next year precluded signing most if any FAs on days one or two.

    The system is barren at forward and it needs to be fixed for the 7 years we’re at the cap, so we can’t move high picks, like Calgary did for Hamonic.

    I refuse to believe a 40+ year old forward at the end of his career (take your pick) would have made a real difference, or more difference thanYamamoto or Puljujarvi.

    So we’re talking another forward instead of Jokinen and better cheap defense options than the AHL crew we signed.

    My take: no saviours out there then or now so McLellan needs to stop slamming the group and do a better job of putting the team in positions to succeed.

    The painfully obvious moves everyone can see but the Oilers: split up McDavid and Draisaitl and send Yamamoto back to Spokane.

    Yeah…His hands were tied. Praise Chia.

  130. VOR says:

    kinger_oil.redux,

    The people who do the Oiler’s fitness testing know. How much communication there is from there to upper management I have no idea. It is also likely that a number of in house staff like T.D.Forss, Simon Bennett, and Chad Drummond know (I can’t imagine they don’t) but again, does anyone in management pay attention I am not sure. At the management level the guy most likely to be keeping up is Keith Gretzky. Boston was doing some very interesting things in prospect identification and assessment during Chiarelli and Gretzky’s time there.

  131. Bag of Pucks says:

    VOR, what if the player is able to maintain intensity/activity for longer thresholds and total duration, but doesn’t actually produce a lot with the additional effort?

    I guess this is where Strome’s point splits would be interesting. Cos for this theory to hold, the player would need to have a greater percentage of point production in latter stages of the game compared to their peer average, no?

  132. VOR says:

    Bag of Pucks:
    VOR, what if the player is able to maintain intensity/activity for longer thresholds and total duration, but doesn’t actually produce a lot with the additional effort?

    I guess this is where Strome’s point splits would be interesting. Cos for this theory to hold, the player would need to have a greater percentage of point production in latter stages of the game compared to their peer average, no?

    Actually, increased point production isn’t the only way to get a benefit. The first way is if you are ahead and want to stay there – if your guys are skating at a higher intensity than the opposition you will keep them hemmed in late in games (which may lead to more points – but might not because you may also be gambling for defence.) On the other hand you may not score yourself but you running the other teams D ragged makes it easier for your teammates and thus what the model forecasts is that the team with the higher SI in the third period and overtime should have a better goal share than the team that is sucking air.

  133. LMHF#1 says:

    Lewis Grant,

    The Coach should run game 6 against ANA on a loop for these guys.

  134. VOR says:

    Bag of Pucks,

    What I am saying is that while individuals may gain an advantage the effect in terms of more goals in total is seen at a team and league level. But to get the benefit of being a higher skating intensity team you need to have more players who skate at above average intensities and also more players that carry their higher intensity into the 3rd and overtime.

    Pittsburgh are really poster boys for team skating intensity. Tampa Bay is another good example. But skating intensity is edging up league wide.

  135. flea says:

    The only thing that is giving me a little hope is that the Oilers are 0-5-1 against the East and 3-2 against the West. At least they aren’t handing points to the teams they will inevitably be chasing the rest of the year.

    Edmonton is built to compete in the West, and so far have struggled against the East. Some bad luck there, and also some bad play, but I’d say they are a lot closer in performance to a .500 team at this point in the season than a cellar dweller.

    Hopefully they can win their next couple games on this homestand and turn this season around. Staying positive!

  136. Woodguy v2.0 says:

    Bag of Pucks,

    ) Eberle didn’t score alongside Connor, so he was essentially 2RW. And a lack of scoring from the second line has not been a core factor in the current woes?

    I’ve shown repeatedly on this blog that:

    19-97-29

    scored at the identical rate as:

    19-97-14

    14 had way more time w/ 27 on LW and that affects the overall number.

    It doesn’t matter how many points a player gets.

    It matters how often the team scores when a player is on the ice.

    So “14 is a 2RW” is incorrect.

  137. TheVengeFulOne says:

    Quwstion for the group. When sekera gets back does he become 2RD? Is that the besteas to deploy this roster with Nurse playing well?

  138. Woodguy v2.0 says:

    Bag of Pucks,

    But if you look at what is ailing this club: poor special teams, no depth scoring from the bottom 6, 4Cs playing in the Top 6, inconsistent goaltending, etc. All but the last factor could be directly attributed to coaching or lack thereof

    This is pretty much it.

    It’s interesting how close some of the numbers are lining up with 15/16 in terms of the bottom 6 sucking the hind banana.

    The special team differential is much worse this year though.

    Yikes!

  139. Woodguy v2.0 says:

    Woodguy v2.0:
    Bag of Pucks,

    But if you look at what is ailing this club: poor special teams, no depth scoring from the bottom 6, 4Cs playing in the Top 6, inconsistent goaltending, etc. All but the last factor could be directly attributed to coaching or lack thereof

    This is pretty much it.

    It’s interesting how close some of the numbers are lining up with 15/16 in terms of the bottom 6 sucking the hind banana.

    The special team differential is much worse this year though.

    Yikes!

    of course while McDavid was out in 15/16 the bottom 6 became a bottom 9.

    Ah, memories.

  140. Bag of Pucks says:

    Woodguy v2.0:
    Bag of Pucks,

    ) Eberle didn’t score alongside Connor, so he was essentially 2RW. And a lack of scoring from the second line has not been a core factor in the current woes?

    I’ve shown repeatedly on this blog that:

    19-97-29

    scored at the identical rate as:

    19-97-14

    14 had way more time w/ 27 on LW and that affects the overall number.

    It doesn’t matter how many points a player gets.

    It matters how often the team scores when a player is on the ice.

    So “14 is a 2RW” is incorrect.

    Fair enough. Either way it’s moot. As we all seem to agree, the primary issue isn’t the Top 6 scoring so Eberle’s departure can’t be a critical factor in the trip from outhouse to penthouse, no?

  141. frjohnk says:

    Woodguy v2.0: It’s interesting how close some of the numbers are lining up with 15/16 in terms of the bottom 6 sucking the hind banana.

    Goals are worse.

    Way worse.

    I believe the 15-16 bottom 6 roster scored at 1.19 GF/60. GF% of 33%.

    This years bottom 6 is scoring at GF/60 of 0.
    0 goals for
    5 goals against.

    Its actually more of a bottom 8 that have not shown up.

    Only 4 guys going.

    McDavid, Maroon, Draisaitl and RNH.

  142. OriginalPouzar says:

    GO OILERS!

    Should be a fun night on Friday with Hall and the upstart Devils in town.

    Hopefully they can get to Schnieder and we can get scoring from 2-3 lines and a nice 2 points in the standings!

    Devils, Wings, Isles, Devils, Rangers – these are winnable games.

    We are going streaking!!!!!!!!!!!

  143. TheVengeFulOne says:

    Bag of Pucks: Fair enough. Either way it’s moot. As we all seem to agree, the primary issue isn’t the Top 6 scoring so Eberle’s departure can’t be a critical factor in the trip from outhouse to penthouse, no?

    Can you name 6 players who are scoring? I can only name 4. If you asked really nice, I might give you ML as a fifth.

  144. Bag of Pucks says:

    VOR:
    Bag of Pucks,

    What I am saying is that while individuals may gain an advantage the effect in terms of more goals in total is seen at a team and league level. But to get the benefit of being a higher skating intensity team you need to have more players who skate at above average intensities and also more players that carry their higher intensity into the 3rd and overtime.

    Pittsburgh are really poster boys for team skating intensity. Tampa Bay is another good example. But skating intensity is edging up league wide.

    This is driving the conversation in a very interesting direction because I see both Chia and TMac building the team for a physical cycle and forecheck style (i.e. what I’m calling a ‘half court’ game). Ironically, McDavid is optimal for a fast break (rush) style and not this half court approach and we’re seeing that on the powerplay where’s not as dominant a weapon when his speed is less advantageous because of the controlled conditions of a PK.

    So if players like Strome and Yamamoto and Caggiula are a movement to this skating intensity style, they seem to be waffling between two approaches in their roster construction?

    Or maybe it’s as simple as we’re looking to sign players that are in incredible skating condition, regardless of whether they’re big or small, but we will expect them to play our ‘heavy on the stick’ game cos puck pursuit is ultimately the common thread in all of this?

  145. Bag of Pucks says:

    TheVengeFulOne: Can you name 6 players who are scoring?

    Whichever top two lines the opposition is icing?

    In all seriousness, if you’re arguing that Eberle is the cause of this, I would simply argue that if you move Leon to C the 2nd line, the problem would be solved.

    Btw, on teams were the scoring is happening at reasonable levels in the Top 6, I think it’s not usual for one or two of the cylinders to be misfiring at any given time. Jordan himself went through prolonged slumps last season.

  146. Woodguy v2.0 says:

    Russell 11:12 5×5. Lordy

    Jesus wept.

  147. Woodguy v2.0 says:

    frjohnk: Goals are worse.

    Way worse.

    I believe the 15-16 bottom 6 roster scored at 1.19 GF/60.GF% of 33%.

    This years bottom 6 is scoring at GF/60 of 0.
    0 goals for
    5 goals against.

    Its actually more of a bottom 8 that have not shown up.

    Only 4 guys going.

    McDavid, Maroon, Draisaitl and RNH.

    yeah, it’s worse.

    1.19 is pretty damn close to 0 though.

  148. frjohnk says:

    Woodguy v2.0:
    Russell 11:12 5×5. Lordy

    Jesus wept.

    Jesus smashed his hot rod when he found out Russell is the 6th leading scorer for the Oilers this year.

  149. Woodguy v2.0 says:

    Bag of Pucks: Fair enough. Either way it’s moot. As we all seem to agree, the primary issue isn’t the Top 6 scoring so Eberle’s departure can’t be a critical factor in the trip from outhouse to penthouse, no?

    Seeing as McDavid’s 62% GF helped mitigate the 48% of everyone else last year the fact that McDavid is 55%GF more scoring from another line would help.

    The special teams are the big thing right now but the rest is death by 1000 paper cuts

  150. Kinger_Oil.redux says:

    The rest – VAN (Markstrom), OTT (Anderson), CAR (Darling), PHI (Elliott), PIT (Murray – twice), and WSH (Holtby) were all significantly above their average this season.

    Murray has had 3 games over .950 this year.2 of them are vs EDM.

    I know variance plays a part in this, but I do not think its nearly as much as you are assuming.

    – I guess its a good exercise in the interpretation of data. A few games ago, I had calculated the average SV% against us was .941.

    – That 7 goalies were significantly higher against us than their average, and only once was a goalie less than average, I attribute that mostly to bad luck

    – Your of course fully entitled to attribute that mostly to a system thing, a dearth of scoring ability across the team etc.

    – But heat maps are strong, shots differentials are strong, possession, etc We are talking about the net difference of 3-4 goals across 11 games, that would be a big difference in the actual results

    – That’s variance: Edmonton has scored 24 goals this year, last by a country mile.

    – By orders of magnitude this ineptitude is luck vs. coaching or personel or systems, it just has to be, that’s how the math works with variance, when considering the team y-o-y

    – You just watch this team go on a tear…

  151. McSorley33 says:

    Kinger_Oil.redux,

    – It’s hot goalering that is more attributable. The cause and effect are being mis-diagnosed IMO When we score lots of goals in the few games, it’s never weak goals let in.
    ***************************************************************************************************
    There is a silver lining.

    In a few weeks, we are likely to see a very steady increase in back up goalies facing us….

  152. Woodguy v2.0 says:

    A part of the 48%GF without McDavid last year was Letestu’s 50%GF

    Last year:

    Letestu with Pitlick 55%GF
    Letestu without Pitlick 45%GF

    One guy running hot is something else eh?

  153. SwedishPoster says:

    Woodguy v2.0:
    Bag of Pucks,

    ) Eberle didn’t score alongside Connor, so he was essentially 2RW. And a lack of scoring from the second line has not been a core factor in the current woes?

    I’ve shown repeatedly on this blog that:

    19-97-29

    scored at the identical rate as:

    19-97-14

    14 had way more time w/ 27 on LW and that affects the overall number.

    It doesn’t matter how many points a player gets.

    It matters how often the team scores when a player is on the ice.

    So “14 is a 2RW” is incorrect.

    Isn’t sample size an issue with the 19-97-14 line? While one could argue the coach’s decision to not keep that line together more to see what was cooking it’s hard to draw the conclusion that McDavid, Maroon would score as well with Eberle as with Drai for a full year. Especially since Eberle faded as the season went on, ofc noone can know if that would happen next to McDavid for the year, but to me it looked like it wasn’t just a confidence thing but he also lost tempo in his game as the season wore on. And I don’t mean skating, he’s never a very explosive skater, but his processing slowed down.

  154. Woodguy v2.0 says:

    Kinger_Oil.redux,

    I agree that the team is not nearly as bad as their record.

    Heat maps are interesting.

    Much hotter from low % areas that last year.

    Slot is still cold.

    Right at the net is pretty hot, but I don’t think they are all AAAA chances, but jamming the net with the goalie taking everything along the ice away are a big chunk of that.

    We’ll see.

  155. TheVengeFulOne says:

    Bag of Pucks: Whichever top two lines the opposition is icing?

    In all seriousness, if you’re arguing that Eberle is the cause of this, I would simply argue that if you move Leon to C the 2nd line, the problem would be solved.

    Btw, on teams were the scoring is happening at reasonable levels in the Top 6, I think it’s not usual for one or two of the cylinders to be misfiring at any given time. Jordan himself went through prolonged slumps last season.

    Our RW is the WORST in the NHL. They are dogshit bad. Slepyshev and Cags are good prospects, not anywhere close to good nhlers. It is ridiculous to say that because we have nuge overachieving and the McDavid line going that we don’t miss eberle. We’ve done this with a ton of players. Gagner wasn’t good enough, so we trade him and don’t replace him with a bonifde option and then wonder why our center depth is so shitty. Petry isn’t a number one dman, so let’s trade him for nothing. Why is our RHD soo bad? Eberle wasn’t perfect, but he was keeping the borderline NHLers in smaller roles.

    If Leon is at center, they might as well play a second goalie. Might as well just give them one of connor’s backup sticks so they can give one to him if he breaks his.

  156. Woodguy v2.0 says:

    SwedishPoster: Isn’t sample size an issue with the 19-97-14 line? While one could argue the coach’s decision to not keep that line together more to see what was cooking it’s hard to draw the conclusion that McDavid, Maroon would score as well with Eberle as with Drai for a full year. Especially since Eberle faded as the season went on, ofc noone can know if that would happen next to McDavid for the year, but to me it looked like it wasn’t just a confidence thing but he also lost tempo in his game as the season wore on. And I don’t mean skating, he’s never a very explosive skater,but his processing slowed down.

    Sample size might play into that.

    29 and 14 having such consistent GFON/60 with 27 and 19 with 29 having a smaller sample with 27 and 14 having a smaller sample with 19 leads me to think it’s really close.

  157. Woodguy v2.0 says:

    frjohnk: Jesus smashed his hot rod when he found out Russell is the 6th leading scorer for the Oilers this year.

    Jesus saw that the scorned player had a NMC

    He raised his hands towards the sky and exclaimed “Really?…….seriously Really?”

  158. Kinger_Oil.redux says:

    Woodguy v2.0,

    – I agree we’ll see.

    – Your right to explore a bunch of reasons and that’s something we all enjoy reading. But hockey is at least a 50% luck game anyways. The change in tactics that might result in 3-5 shots coming from different angles or whatever ultimately aren’t difference makers. The slight change in personel from this year to last year doesn’t prove why we suck so bad right now

    – If McL doesn’t take this team to at least the 3rd round this year, he’s gone: that’s hockey

  159. Woodguy v2.0 says:

    TheVengeFulOne: You can be a good hockey player and an asshole. I think people put too much value on character some times. I know guys who were fantastic teammates, but shitty people.

    The poster boy for this is Denis Potvin.

    Almost universally disliked by his team mates.

    A general piece of shit of a person by many stories.

    Hell of a hockey player and the Captain of the last team to win 5 Cups in a row.

  160. Woodguy v2.0 says:

    Kinger_Oil.redux:
    Woodguy v2.0,

    – I agree we’ll see.

    – Your right to explore a bunch of reasons and that’s something we all enjoy reading.But hockey is at least a 50% luck game anyways.The change in tactics that might result in 3-5 shots coming from different angles or whatever ultimately aren’t difference makers.The slight change in personel from this year to last year doesn’t prove why we suck so bad right now

    – If McL doesn’t take this team to at least the 3rd round this year, he’s gone: that’s hockey

    Agreed on the luck.

    Variance is a bitch.

    Last year it was the Oiler’s bitch.

    I disagree with a few key things McLellan does and wouldn’t mind to see a different and more progressive coach but the GM wears this year.

    GM’s get to hire and fire 3 coaches and Chia is still on his first.

  161. Lewis Grant says:

    LMHF#1: Lewis Grant,
    The Coach should run game 6 against ANA on a loop for these guys.

    That’s actually a great idea. They need to get that playoff mentality back.

  162. Woodguy v2.0 says:

    Hockey Team Culture Primer

    After watching hockey 40 years and reading *everything* written about EDM for 37 year Yeats I’ve come to this conclusion:

    Teams that win often have a great culture where everyone overcomes their differences, plays for each other and has “swagger”.

    Teams that lose often have a terrible culture and many players don’t care much for each other. They do not have swagger.

    True story.

  163. leadfarmer says:

    Kinger_Oil.redux,

    Elliott’s sp this season is 914 913 806 913 958* 760 933 882 941
    We are the 958. At some point we are going to have to address that the only player that has a plus shot is Klefbom (his shot is off this year but does have a heavy shot) McDavid (although he would much rather pass it into an empty net) and maybe Drai. That’s it. We can talk shot charts and Corgis all day long but the truth is we are going to need guys to create a lot of traffic and bounce pucks off people cause a lot of these guys don’t have a good enough shot

  164. Chachi says:

    Woodguy v2.0: The poster boy for this is Denis Potvin.

    Almost universally disliked by his team mates.

    A general piece of shit of a person by many stories.

    Hell of a hockey player and the Captain of the last team to win 5 Cups in a row.

    Rumour is the Oilers won the cup the year the Islanders were going for their 5th in a row. Or did I travel to that alternate dimension people live in where Chiarelli keeps Hall, adds only Jason Demers and the Oilers win 10 Stanley Cups in a row?

  165. Munny says:

    Woodguy v2.0: and the Captain of the last team to win 5 Cups in a row.

    Lol, this is probably news to Potvin.

  166. anjinsan says:

    A pro scout friend of mine who makes his way scouting for the draft said Chiarelli’s long time MO is erring regarding high-end talent and thinking you build a team from the bruisers. Chiarelli went to Harvard but reality is of the blue collar. That’s really not going to suit McDavid. If the Devils scorch the Oilers tomorrow, Chiarelli has it coming.

  167. Lowetide says:

    Based on stories, Eddie Shore was the absolute great/asshat, but Potvin is a great example. I remember early in his career, maybe year two or three, he said “everyone talks about how great Orr is, check out my game” and it sent shockwaves. I mean seriously. And he WAS a great player by then. But he simply saw things in his own way.

  168. Chachi says:

    anjinsan:
    A pro scout friend of mine who makes his way scouting for the draft said Chiarelli’s long time MO is erring regarding high-end talent and thinking you build a team from the bruisers.Chiarelli went to Harvard but reality is of the blue collar.That’s really not going to suit McDavid.If the Devils scorch the Oilers tomorrow, Chiarelli has it coming.

    Where to start…

    You have a pro scout friend who makes his way by scouting amateur players? Good for him I guess.

    The Harvard/blue collar statement is very much nonsense.

    Happy that you will enjoy it if the Oilers lose to the Devils tomorrow. Hall is on quite the PDO heater, maybe that will continue and you can be extra happy.

  169. hags9k says:

    I am a big Larsson fan. But what I have noticed this year, in his “also in photo” moments, and there have been too many, is that he seems to have lacked a certain quickness or intensity to defend those plays. His speed and quickness were short of the play happening around him.

    Maybe due to too much TOI? Maybe a nagging injury? He just doesn’t seem as quick as usual in defending, with feet or stick.

    Just a shitty random observation.

  170. godot10 says:

    Woodguy v2.0: The poster boy for this is Denis Potvin.

    Almost universally disliked by his team mates.

    A general piece of shit of a person by many stories.

    Hell of a hockey player and the Captain of the last team to win 5 Cups in a row.

    Ths Islanders DIDN’T win five cups in a row.

    Tell me how many Cups they won.

    https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=moX3z2RJAV8

  171. godot10 says:

    leadfarmer:
    Kinger_Oil.redux,

    Elliott’s sp this season is 914 913 806 913 958* 760 933 882 941
    We are the 958.At some point we are going to have to address that the only player that has a plus shot is Klefbom (his shot is off this year but does have a heavy shot) McDavid (although he would much rather pass it into an empty net) and maybe Drai.That’s it.We can talk shot charts and Corgis all day long but the truth is we are going to need guys to create a lot of traffic and bounce pucks off people cause a lot of these guys don’t have a good enough shot

    Nugent-Hopkins has a good shot, but he never uses it enough.

  172. Ror Dog says:

    Long time reader, first time poster. Thanks for all the great Oiler content @Lowetide, this blog is consistently informative and realistic. First thing I do when I wake up is check this blog, don’t know what I’d do without it! Cheers guys, and GOILERS!

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