Game 12 2017-18: Devils at Oilers

Ryan Nugent-Hopkins scored goal No. 100 in his NHL career this week, moving into the Oilers’ all-time Top 20 in the category. For a franchise with such a short history, the career categories are breathtaking.

GOALS, EDMONTON OILERS, CAREER

  1. Wayne Gretzky 583
  2. Jari Kurri 474
  3. Glenn Anderson 417
  4. Mark Messier 392
  5. Ryan Smyth 296
  6. Paul Coffey 209
  7. Craig Simpson 185
  8. Esa Tikkanen 178
  9. Jordan Eberle 165
  10. Shawn Horcoff 162
  11. Doug Weight 157
  12. Craig MacTavish 155
  13. Ales Hemsky 142
  14. Todd Marchant 136
  15. Taylor Hall 132
  16. Dave Hunter 119
  17. Petr Klima 119
  18. Ethan Moreau 112
  19. Sam Gagner 101
  20. Jason Arnott 100
  21. Ryan Nugent-Hopkins 100

That’s a helluva list, if Nuge can hang around another seven years he’ll be the ninth man to score 200 in an Oilers uniform.

PIKES PEAK, YEAR OVER YEAR

  • Oilers in November 2015: 1-0-0, goal differential +2
  • Oilers in November 2016: 0-0-1, goal differential -1
  • Oilers in November 2017: 0-1-0, goal differential -1

AFTER 11, YEAR OVER YEAR

  • Oilers 15-16: 4-7-0, goal differential -6
  • Oilers 16-17: 7-3-1, goal differential +7
  • Oilers 17-18: 3-7-1, goal differential -12

Game 12 in 2015-16 was a 5-4 loss to the Calgary Flames (goal with nine seconds left by Michael Frolik). Game 12 last season was a 4-3 shootout win over the New York Islanders in Brooklyn.  It’s interesting to see the theme for these seasons had already been established, with G12 results adding further evidence to die cast.

WHAT TO EXPECT FROM NOVEMBER

  • At home to: Pittsburgh, New Jersey, Detroit (Expected: 2-1-0) (Actual 0-1-0)
  • On the road to: NYI, New Jersey, NYR, Washington (Expected: 1-2-1) (Actual: 0-0-0)
  • At home to: Vegas, St. Louis (Expected 1-1-0) (Actual: 0-0-0)
  • On the road to: Dallas, St. Louis, Detroit, Buffalo, Boston (Expected 2-2-1) (Actual 0-0-0)
  • At home to: Arizona, Toronto (Expected 1-1-0) (Actual 0-0-0)
  • Overall expected result: 7-7-2, 16 points in 16 games 
  • Current results: 0-1-0, zero points in one game

I have tonight as a win for the home team, although Rogers Place seems to like road warriors based on what we’ve seen so far this year. The Oilers scoring (GF-GA) by discipline: 5×5 (17-19), even-strength (19-22), power play (5-1) and penalty kill (0-13). Overall scoring: 24-36. Culprit? I’ll go special teams. (Source)

JESSE

  • Elliotte Friedman: One other thing about Puljujarvi: He might also be Chiarelli’s most enticing trade chip. That’s a big, big decision and, unless the Oilers are absolutely convinced it won’t work for Puljujarvi in Edmonton, you’ve got to think the player gets another NHL shot first. Source

In Friedman’s 31 Thoughts, his main point about JP  involved callup, but this wrinkle is interesting. The selection of Jesse Puljujarvi came at a point where Edmonton was discussing trade with Montreal, and that deal would probably have come to fruition if Columbus had chosen Puljujarvi. I have suggested, and believe, Chiarelli made the Hall-Larsson deal partly because Puljujarvi was available. The organization, and most hockey scouts, felt the big Finn was going to be a bona fide scorer. He is one of the reasons the Taylor Hall was dealt, Edmonton probably feeling they had a player who could quickly advance to 15-20 goals per season. These months later, we remain in wait mode. Jesse Puljujarvi picked up an assist last night in Bakersfield, now 9gp, 1-4-5 (NHLE: 24). I remember hearing stories about the Oilers being enamored with Mikhael Sergachev at that time, and that may be Chiarelli’s biggest regret from the 2016 draft.

CHIARELLI CHATTER

Overwhelming support for firing Peter Chiarelli across the universe based on my twitter timeline and this blog’s comments. I don’t see it happening. Edmonton posted a 103-point season in 2016-17, that’s going to give the general manager a lot of rope. Pressure arrives next fall (2018), giving the general manager the rest of this season and next summer to find solutions. What’s the low marker for this season? 82 points? Let’s say it’s 82 points. I don’t think 82 points this season gets Chiarelli fired. Seriously. Todd McLellan is a little more vulnerable and the assistant coaches are really vulnerable, especially if the special teams don’t recover. This is my opinion.

As for the verbal tirades in the comments section, I believe free exchange of ideas is the reason this blog has had success. If a poster has vitriol to deliver about the general manager, then it will stand. We do not tolerate abusive behavior and I will be more mindful of that in the coming days, as it seems browbeating is once again raising its ugly head in pursuit of a goal. Rest assured, if you want to comment on the GM, and can avoid being abusive, your post will stand. If you become abusive, your post will be deleted and you’ll spend some time in purgatory. No exceptions.

As for you, dear reader, where you get your information and who you pay attention to is completely your decision. This blog has always tried to pursue a balanced view and will continue to do so in these times of issue framing. We will acknowledge the poor trades made by Peter Chiarelli, and they have had tremendous impact on the team—now and long into the future. We’ll also acknowledge the good acquisitions, including Cam Talbot, Andrej Sekera,Patrick Maroon, Zack Kassian and Matt Benning. It is up to you to decide what information you hold as valuable, what source of information suits you best. I encourage you to find a balanced view on these things and to draw your own conclusions. Only the addled blindly follow, and that applies to all sides of the discussion.

If I may linger a moment longer, I sincerely hope you enjoy your experience. I think there are those who find joy in building up rage in others, although to what end is beyond me. You do not have to endure things that make you uncomfortable or put you in a bad place after reading. If the comments section of this blog does that to you, I would encourage you to refrain from reading until this current losing streak subsides. We’re all human, and a 15-minute wade into the negative can sometimes put us in a bad place for hours afterward, impacting those humans around us who depend on our reasoned thinking. Let’s remember this is supposed to be fun, ladies and men. Thanks.

WHO’S UNDER THE MICROSCOPE?

  • Things can change, but based on usage, verbal and the obvious, I think Anton Slepyshev is in his last chance Texaco period.
  • Drake Caggiula’s a player whose employment has never been in doubt but he’s going to need to deliver at least some offense to stay.
  • Kailer Yamamoto has an enormous future with this team. Tonight might be his last NHL game of the season, but he’s going to be a starter very soon—likely opening night 2018-19.
  • Jussi Jokinen’s status is as extra man but that could change. It’s a long season and the veteran is very useful. He might be an answer on special teams.
  • Milan Lucic is having the puck die on his stick too much, and not putting the puck in good places. When he’s at his best the big man is physical, adept at passing and a good player in the offensive zone. He’s been inconsistent since he got here, could be headed for 3L soon.
  • Kris Russell is playing three fewer minutes a night year over year. Either he’s playing hurt—haven’t read a thing—or Todd McLellan is finding better alternatives. If your $4 million free agent is playing 18 minutes a night when the team is scrambling for defense, that’s a mighty poor arrow.

TY RATTIE

Ty Rattie delivered a hat-trick for the Bakersfield Condors last night, putting himself in the conversation for recall. I think Brad Malone or Jesse Puljujarvi are more likely but you never know.

1984-85 OILERS

News story about the Oilers honoring the 1984-85 Oilers (here) and it reminds me about something we should have been talking about earlier. Are you surprised this team was chosen? Which of the 1980’s Oilers teams do you consider the best? I am pleased with the choice because it includes Paul Coffey, who was certainly one of the best players on planet earth in the 1980s. I’m not sure it would be my choice for best Oilers team ever, but the people have spoken. What is your opinion?

LOWDOWN WITH LOWETIDE

We are drunk with great guests, first Friday of winter (based on weather conditions and forecast). 10 this morning, TSN1260, scheduled to appear:

  • Steve Lansky, BigMouthSports. Is the 1984-85 Oilers team the best ever? Should we lower expectations for this year’s team based on early performance?
  • Paul Sir, The Basketball Show. Raptors playing well, 76ers 4-4!
  • Matt Iwanyk, TSN1260. Eskimos big weekend, Hall at Ford Hall.
  • Paul Almeida, SSE. Oilers need a win. Will it come tonight?

10-1260 text, @Lowetide twitter. See you on the radio!

 

 

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438 Responses to "Game 12 2017-18: Devils at Oilers"

« Older Comments
  1. treevojo says:

    Gret99zky:
    Really happy for the win.Keep it up!7-7-1 would be great.

    That woul be great but I will be content if they are .500 by the 20 game mark.

  2. Professor Q says:

    SK Oiler Fan:
    Thought W Butcher looked good for Devils tonight. Garth Butcher’s boy?

    Joe Butcher’s son.

  3. Crazy Pedestrian says:

    Pouzar: He’s ahead of last year’s PPG pace.

    Seriously!? Geez must be tons of players going on a tear this season if his current ppg rate only gets his tied for 7th…

  4. SK Oiler Fan says:

    Could be worse. Could have your head coach have to lie to the media about your star goalie being injured so you have an excuse not to play him. Love it.

  5. hags9k says:

    Prediction: Darnell Nurse does not relinquish his spot on the top pairing for over a decade.

  6. Crazy Pedestrian says:

    hags9k:
    Prediction:Darnell Nurse does not relinquish his spot on the top pairing for over a decade.

    Soooo… how much is he going to get for his next contract if his good play continues? Pretty much everyone was estimating his next contract around the $2.5-$3M range… will chia pay him $4M+ if this continues?? How will our cap look like if that happens???

  7. hags9k says:

    Chia should be working on a Nurse extension RFN.

  8. Professor Q says:

    hags9k:
    Chia should be working on a Nurse extension RFN.

    Restricted Free Nurse?

  9. GMB3 says:

    Can we send Lucic to Robidas Island please? Keep our Nuge

  10. Pouzar says:

    Elliotte Friedman‏Verified account @FriedgeHNIC 57s57 seconds ago
    More
    Last note: Turris (NASH), Duchene (OTT), haul of picks and maybe prospect or two (COL). No Ekholm.

  11. Professor Q says:

    Crazy Pedestrian: Seriously!? Geez must be tons of players going on a tear this season if his current ppg rate only gets his tied for 7th…

    Indeed. McDavid is tied for 13th PpGP with 1.18.

    Stamkos is at 1.71!

  12. Chachi says:

    Good game by the Oilers. Empty netter was hilarious.

    New Jersey is a fast, but awful team. If they get even average puck luck for the rest of the season they’ll miss the playoffs.

  13. Pouzar says:

    Domination in Hits and Face Offs…a HFOil Wet Dream.

  14. StixMalone says:

    Pouzar:
    Elliotte Friedman‏Verified account @FriedgeHNIC57s57 seconds ago
    More
    Last note: Turris (NASH), Duchene (OTT), haul of picks and maybe prospect or two (COL). No Ekholm.

    Ottawa going all in….

  15. Chachi says:

    Duchene trade not happening as per Darren Dreger

  16. Caller Zen says:

    Chachi,

    Last minute tampering from Lou? I can see Toronto really not liking this deal.

  17. Chachi says:

    Caller Zen:
    Chachi,

    Last minute tampering from Lou?I can see Toronto really not liking this deal.

    Hadn’t thought of that, but it wouldn’t be surprising would it?

  18. OriginalPouzar says:

    Waking up after a great Oiler performance and two points is always a good thing.

  19. OriginalPouzar says:

    I was very happy with the performance of that third line.

    Strome and Caggulia had strong games.

  20. hags9k says:

    OriginalPouzar,

    I love the smell of secondary scoring in the morning.

  21. Cassandra says:

    The Devils were outshot 34-39. When Taylor Hall was on the ice the Devils outshot the Oilers 17-8, playing with rookies and Drew Stafford.

    We traded that guy.

    Unbelievable.

    Anyway, I told you the Oilers would win.

  22. texmex says:

    Cassandra,

    Larsson with 13 hits, 5 blocked shots, 3 shots on goal, 1 apple and 23:07 of ice time. Dominant game.

  23. OriginalPouzar says:

    Nice shot share for Hall – I believe his goal share was 33%.

  24. Kinger_Oil.redux says:

    OriginalPouzar:
    I was very happy with the performance of that third line.

    Strome and Caggulia had strong games.

    – A Caggs-Strome-Sleppy line would be a wonderful set-up and would seem to suit in terms of pace and style of play. I had said after last game that I hope they give it a whirl

    – And if the intention is to put Kailer back to Junoir and eventually call up Jesse, they are actually going about it the right way IMO: give Kailer the chance to work train and get NHL exposure, but only 9 games, while Jessie be all Rocky in Bakersfield/Siberia while he works on his game

  25. Jethro Tull says:

    Cassandra:
    The Devils were outshot 34-39.When Taylor Hall was on the ice the Devils outshot the Oilers 17-8, playing with rookies and Drew Stafford.

    We traded that guy.

    Unbelievable.

    Anyway, I told you the Oilers would win.

    Devils had half of their shots with Hall on the ice? That indicates a good player and not a good team.

  26. OriginalPouzar says:

    Devils being top 5 in the NHL indicates a good team.

  27. Jethro Tull says:

    OriginalPouzar:
    Devils being top 5 in the NHL indicates a good team.

    No it doesn’t and you know it. We’ve seen a few teams PDO their way to the playoffs. Hall on fire and Schneider was playing better than he did last night. Sound familiar? Like a 100pt player and Talbot got us to the playoffs last year?

  28. Dustylegnd says:

    Cassandra:
    The Devils were outshot 34-39.When Taylor Hall was on the ice the Devils outshot the Oilers 17-8, playing with rookies and Drew Stafford.

    We traded that guy.

    Unbelievable.

    Anyway, I told you the Oilers would win.

    Yes, we did….those guys are pretty hard to find aren’t they? Fawk he is a possession monster

    On the plus side I thought Strome was fantastic last night, I was only looking for a pulse, and he sat up off the ice like Mia Wallace after the hypodermic needle to the heart…good for him, mabey there is a player in there somewhere

    Even Fraken Lucic had some life last night, was good to see

  29. Woodguy v2.0 says:

    Georges,

    I was curious too, about your posting on the shortcomings of the roster. The roster seems to be doing exactly what you used to say good teams do… except win. Last season, we were a middling CF% team and sixth on score-adjusted FF%, but we were winning. In our conversations, you used to emphasize shot attempts and de-emphasize goals. You’d say GF% will converge to DFF%/CF%. PC seems to have built a roster that excels on CF% and, I assume, DFF%. So when GF% converges, we’re good

    All of that is still true.

    The disconnect is the context and size of this year’s sample.

    Since McDavid got here I’ve taken pains to analyze the team with and without him.

    McDavid will turn corsis into goals more than almost every other player out there and drives a lot of corsis. Leaving him in the EDM sample skews things so you need to pull him out.

    Last year, outside of McDavid the team was running hot on the 4th line and the 2nd and 3rd were bad at corsi and goals.

    I’ll de-emphasis goals in the correct spots (or at least try to do it in the correct spots) and this is one of those spots, but relying on the shot data with the extreme game states is folly.

    I don’t know why you’d tell me I’m ignoring shot metrics in a thread where I explicitly stated that both teams were not their record and pointed at their shot shares at evidence of that.

    One thing I’ve explored this year (you’re quoting from my blog so I’ll assume you’ve read that piece too) of what the expected shoot % are and how that effects the expectations on goals. This is not last year’s team and the players on this team (outside of McDavid) turn corsis into goals at a lesser than than last year’s version if the historical data is to be believed.


    . But you seem more and more exasperated with PC’s moves. You’ve been aggressive in using numbers in your arguments with other posters. I wasn’t always sure why. I thought this was a hobby for you.

    It is a hobby.

    Tone is a funny thing. I’ve had people tell me that they read my posts much differently after talking to me in real life or hearing me on the radio a few times.

    What comes across as aggression in written words usually isn’t. I’m more blunt than aggressive.

    I am aggressive too, but only in spots.

    I also reserve to pissed off with EDM management. I have more time and money devoted to this org than they do. 🙂

    As for Chia’s moves, well they speak for themselves.


    The numbers seem to give your opinions weight but I don’t often see it that way. Data analysis is like anything else people try to get good at; you have to spend a lot of time developing your skill and understanding.

    You should really argue those specific posts if you feel that way. What you’re doing is very vague and is tough to follow. (like telling me I’m ignoring the predictive nature of shot metrics in a thread where I used them to predict future goal share and standings places for 2 teams)

    I’ve always learned the most from those who disagree with me and will explain why.

    That’s why I liked you as a poster from the start. You challenged some specific ideas and backed it up with facts.

    That’s the good stuff.

    If you think I’m wrong or framing the issue to fit my narrative too much by all means bring an argument, but bring specifics.


    You’re free to change your mind on prior beliefs and right to revise them as more data becomes available. I didn’t know that that was what was happening. I pegged you as a true believer on shot attempts. My mistake.

    I’m not sure how you mean “true believer”

    Does shot share predict future goal share? Yes, to a point (I think the general r2 is 25)

    Does SAF predict future goal share? Yes, but with a r2 of 11 I don’t hang my hat on it and consider the analysis done in a 11 game sample.

    As the CF% of teams converge the ability to turn corisis into goals increases in importance. Goalies increase in importance, special teams increase in importance.

    Shot metrics are a significant part of the overall picture but not the only part.

    Since I wrote that piece 3 years ago the community has created decent expected goal (and save) metrics which put a finer line on the data.

    Dawnson Sprigings put an even finer point on that by regressive every individual’s SH% for his xG metric and that one actually out predicts CF% if we are to take his statements at face value.

    Not all players turn corsis in the goals at the same rate and coaching is a massive influence on that rate as well (LAK is a nice example right now)

    These are some of the things we need to use to add context to the shot data and I’m trying to do that.

    Pointing at a SAF and declaring the future isn’t enough anymore.

  30. Chachi says:

    OriginalPouzar:
    Devils being top 5 in the NHL indicates a good team.

    It is very possible that the Devils drop out of the top 5 by the end of the month. Likely they are not in a playoff spot at Christmas. They are likely a bottom 5 team by the end of the year. That is a bad team.

  31. Woodguy v2.0 says:

    Chachi: It is very possible that the Devils drop out of the top 5 by the end of the month. Likely they are not in a playoff spot at Christmas. They are likely a bottom 5 team by the end of the year. That is a bad team.

    Given the wins in the bag I think Schneider holds them in longer but I’d be surprised if they made the playoffs.

    They need Dmen in the worst way.

    Moore’s a real drag on this team and in his last year. I’d expect them to move on from him soon.

    I think they traded for Mueller to take his spot, but he’s not done it.

  32. Chachi says:

    Woodguy v2.0: Given the wins in the bag I think Schneider holds them in longer but I’d be surprised if they made the playoffs.

    They need Dmen in the worst way.

    Yes, their good luck could continue and Schneider could have a Vezina season and they might squeak into the playoffs. Anything is possible. What is funny is that with their roster they would have a better chance to make the playoffs if they went full Jacques Lemaire for the rest of the season. I am happy as a hockey fan that they aren’t doing that.

  33. Woodguy v2.0 says:

    Georges,

    You seem to not share Woodguy’s opinions though. Earlier in the thread, you’re complimentary to the Devils’ analytics department. That team is at the top of the standings on points % but 25th in the league on score adjusted Fenwick. They have a league-leading PDO of 103.8.

    Iirc English isn’t your first language so that may explain some of this.

    You mention I was complimentary of the Devil’s analytic department.

    Let’s see what I wrote:

    4) Every thin bet paying off.
    Shero is the opposite Chiarelli in this regard.
    I wonder if some of this had to do with his analytics team?
    I’m not being a dink, I’m honestly asking that question. NJD hired Sunny Mehta years ago and he’s still there working. I was a fan of Sunny’s poker books back when a portion of my income was derived from poker. Razor sharp dude.

    I mention their drafting and thin bets on AHL vets and that I admired their main analytics hire from his poker writing.

    You then take this to mean I approve of everything NJD is doing and I disregard their shot metrics.

    That is not what I wrote at all. I wonder if it has to do with English as a second language for you?

    You all missed that I mentioned those shot metrics and their PDO earlier in the very same post.

  34. frjohnk says:

    Woodguy v2.0: Given the wins in the bag I think Schneider holds them in longer but I’d be surprised if they made the playoffs.

    They need Dmen in the worst way.

    Moore’s a real drag on this team and in his last year.I’d expect them to move on from him soon.

    I think they traded for Mueller to take his spot, but he’s not done it.

    3 of their top 9 forwards are out of the line up.
    Zajac
    Johansen
    Palmeri

    Their forward depth when healthy is surprisingly deeper than I thought.

    But agree on the D.

    Need to trade one of their forwards for a Dman.

  35. Woodguy v2.0 says:

    Chachi: Yes, their good luck could continue and Schneider could have a Vezina season and they might squeak into the playoffs. Anything is possible. What is funny is that with their roster they would have a better chance to make the playoffs if they went full Jacques Lemaire for the rest of the season. I am happy as a hockey fan that they aren’t doing that.

    Yeah, when NJD is playing fast and loose hockey that bodes well for the entertainment level of all teams.

    They have a nice group of young talent. Reminds me of the 12/13 Oilers a bit with a better goalie and better 1D.

  36. Woodguy v2.0 says:

    frjohnk: 3 of their top 9 forwards are out of the line up.
    Zajac
    Johansen
    Palmeri

    Their forward depth when healthy is surprisingly deeper than I thought.

    But agree on the D.

    Need to trade one of their forwards for a Dman.

    I HAVE A GREAT IDEA ON WHO TO TRADE OUT OF THE TOP 6 FOR A DMAN!!

    Hehe.

    I like Greene and Santini is decent there for a rookie.

    Severson has proven too much of a saloon door in his own end for those minutes, but is great with the puck. Kinda like a more well rounded Jultz imo.

    If they can get a good LHD to play with Severson on the second pair they might be ok, but betting on rookie Santini w/ Greene is a thin bet.

    I think they look at this year as a development year and might leave Santini there and go shopping in FA for a 2LD next summer.

    I wonder if they leave Hall with Hishier when Zajac gets back?

    If the run Hall-Zajac-Stafford that line won’t score nearly as much, but might be better GF% wise.

  37. Jethro Tull says:

    Demers to NJ, WG? Just poking the bear! Have a great day!

  38. Woodguy v2.0 says:

    Jethro Tull:
    Demers to NJ, WG? Just poking the bear! Have a great day!

    That would be a good trade for them.

    Someone to play with Greene

    He certainly helped OEL in ARI after Hjarlm dragged him down

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