Armed Forces

Connor McDavid was brilliant, Cam Talbot stopped 31 shots and the support group delivered in all areas. In Edmonton’s home victories the team has looked under control, getting at least their share of the good-to-great chances. If they can find consistency, we’re going to have another playoff spring in the Capital. Long road, last night was a start.

PIKES PEAK, YEAR OVER YEAR

  • Oilers in November 2015: 1-1-0, goal differential +1
  • Oilers in November 2016: 0-1-1, goal differential -3
  • Oilers in November 2017: 1-1-0, goal differential +2

Edmonton’s win last night has them ahead of last November (lost in OT to Toronto and had a poor game against the Rangers) and perhaps this month will smile on the Oilers a little more this season.

AFTER 12, YEAR OVER YEAR

  • Oilers 15-16: 4-8-0, goal differential -7
  • Oilers 16-17: 8-3-1, goal differential +7
  • Oilers 17-18: 4-7-1, goal differential -9

It’s interesting to see just how similar this season and fall 2015 are turning out. Now, that year had some injury troubles but this on does as well. Important to keep marching and making this November a productive one.

WHAT TO EXPECT FROM NOVEMBER

  • At home to: Pittsburgh, New Jersey, Detroit (Expected: 2-1-0) (Actual 1-1-0)
  • On the road to: NYI, New Jersey, NYR, Washington (Expected: 1-2-1) (Actual: 0-0-0)
  • At home to: Vegas, St. Louis (Expected 1-1-0) (Actual: 0-0-0)
  • On the road to: Dallas, St. Louis, Detroit, Buffalo, Boston (Expected 2-2-1) (Actual 0-0-0)
  • At home to: Arizona, Toronto (Expected 1-1-0) (Actual 0-0-0)
  • Overall expected result: 7-7-2, 16 points in 16 games 
  • Current results: 1-1-0, two points in two games

A big win last night, more are needed. I have the club running in place during this month, we should be delighted if more is gained over the piece. I do not have them doing a lot on the road trip, that’s the part of this month’s schedule where we might be pleasantly surprised. This is a difficult schedule.

DEFENSE, LAST NIGHT

  • Nurse—Larsson were 32-19 together, 11-10 in shots, 7-3 in HDSC. That’s a damned good night! The pairing spent most time with the Nuge line (8-5) and against Hall—Zacha—Stafford (8-8). All kinds of post-game chatter about Larsson’s 13 hits, he was very physical and had some offensive moments, too. Nurse’s tremendous speed was on display and badly needed against the Roadrunner Devils.
  • Klefbom—Benning went 20-23 together, 5-9 in HDSC’s. Were 13-12 with the McDavid line, I do like seeing these two men break out with the gunners. Were 11-13 against the Hall—Zacha—Stafford line, and 2-1 in goals against the trio. Klefbom’s goal was huge, very timely marker, and well earned.
  • Russell—Gryba went 14-21 together and 4-2 in HDSC’s. Insanity? Fenwick for was 56.52, 11-9. Crazy to the highest! Kris Russell and Eric Gryba blocked nine shots.
  • Cam Talbot stopped 31 of 34, .912.
  • Natural Stat Trick and NHL.com.

FORWARDS, LAST NIGHT

  • Maroon—McDavid—Draisaitl went 24-17, 2-1 in 5×5 GF-GA and 7-6 in HDSC. The trio had eight faceoffs in the offensive zone, five in the defensive zone and the rest (13) in the (wait for it) neutral zone. McDavid was 9-11 against Hall, I loved watching it. Maybe they’ll meet in the finals and we’ll all have heart attacks. Is anyone keeping track of the number of open nets missed by McDavid’s wingers? Holy lord.
  • Lucic—Nuge—Slepyshev were 20-15 together, 4-4 in HDSC and 1-0 in goals. The group had seven offensive zone and one defensive zone faceoff. Interesting. Went 8-7 against Hall and 11-2 against Henrique (this is Nuge) and the line posted four points on the night. That’s breaking news. Lucic was out of sync early, thought he tightened his game later on and had one of his better outings of the year. Nuge was fab and Slepyshev finally gets with skill and looky there he contributes to a goal. Could be a turning point for player and team.
  • Jokinen—Strome—Caggiula went 16-18, 1-1 goals, 2-0 in HDSC’s. Amazingly, the group had three offensive and 11 defensive zone starts (one neutral) on the night. Went 7-6 against Boyle and 5-5 against Hall. Everyone has a number against Hall, he played 80 minutes, swear to God. This was an effective line, playing tougher than you might expect minutes.
  • Pakarinen—Letestu—Kassian were 9-11 together, 2-3 in HDSC’s. Letestu’s pass on the power play to McDavid was gorgeous, just a really skilled play. Went 6-11 against the Wood line, that guy can fly. Kassian seemed to be playing with more abandon, needs to play balls out to be at his most effective.

Yet we still hear things like “McDavid needs to be better” and honestly  it’s ridiculous. I’m going to start collecting these quotes and crediting them, because honestly these kinds of comments need to be confronted and addressed. Seriously. If there is a germ of an idea in your brain that suggests Connor McDavid is any part of the issue, flush the germ. Drink plenty of liquids, wash that germ right out of your life. Today. Toot sweet. Schnell.

Apparently the Avalanche were receiving a combination of picks and prospects for Duchene. Edmonton has bled too many young assets to make this trade (for Duchene) and I’d still make the trade.

GOD’S FLASHLIGHT

For me this is where the rubber hits the road. Connor McDavid and Leon Draisaitl are super nova, Patrick Maroon, Ryan Nugent-Hopkins and Milan Lucic are over 2.00/60 5×5 for the year. The slow start has obscured the fact Edmonton has some promise on that second line, and perhaps the key to unlocking a complete line is young Mr. Slepyshev.

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154 Responses to "Armed Forces"

  1. flyfish1168 says:

    Really liked Larssons game last evening. I’m happy with the trade. CAP hit is very reasonable for what he brings

  2. frjohnk says:

    In Chia we trust. 🙂

  3. Gino says:

    It’s funny how few broken ankles there are after last night’s game.

  4. hunter1909 says:

    Oilers will make the playoffs, possibly the division.

    They should progress beyond the 2nd round in the playoffs.

    The past month has merely seen Oilers spotting the rest of the NHL a 10 game handicap.

  5. p3rsonman says:

    Entertaining game last night. Despite him being the enemy now I still enjoy watching Hall play.

    Is Klefbom OK? His decision making this season has been very questionable. He looks like a rookie in the D zone sometimes.

  6. leadfarmer says:

    flyfish1168:
    Really liked Larssons game last evening. I’m happy with the trade. CAP hit is very reasonable for what he brings

    His game is especially made for playoffs where he can make life absolutely miserable for opposing forwards game after game. Seems like Larson’s d partner seems to always thrive with him just like Sekera’s. It’s nice to have a soft landing spot like that for a young player being bumped up from 3rd pair to first pair in the course of several games

  7. flyfish1168 says:

    leadfarmer: His game is especially made for playoffs where he can make life absolutely miserable for opposing forwards game after game.Seems like Larson’s d partner seems to always thrive with him just like Sekera’s.It’s nice to have a soft landing spot like that for a young player being bumped up from 3rd pair to first pair in the course of several games

    We all love a hard working blue collar type of player. Unfortunately chances are it is also hard on his body. I just hope Adam picks his spots and TMac is careful with usage so he can heal between games.

  8. JustWatt says:

    That was a game that played well to the Oilers strengths. Almost no special teams, wide open free wheeling hockey, trading chances at both ends. And NJ is very fast but very young and not great on defense. It was a very entertaining game but I don’t think that they are going to win too many games this year that look like that.

  9. Westchester Oil says:

    How many times in the ‘Defense, Lst Night’ recap has the words ‘mobile’ or ‘skated miles’ been used to describe Nurse? I hope we can afford him next year. I’d hate to have to move him but if we did, the return would be substantial.

    Same with Nuge – if we can’t afford him, his strong play this year will increase his value in a trade, if necessary. His $6 million contract is looking a little better.

  10. hunter1909 says:

    Westchester Oil: How many times in the ‘Defense, Lst Night’ recap has the words ‘mobile’ or ‘skated miles’ been used to describe Nurse? I hope we can afford him next year. I’d hate to have to move him but if we did, the return would be substantial.

    If they are too stupid to be able to sign Nurse for a 4 million per season X 8 year deal then…

    1 – I’ll cry
    2 – They’re trading for Doughty/Karlsson
    3 – Lowe+MacT need to be sacked
    3a – all of the above

  11. Dino says:

    At least we got a warm body for Hall that happens to be an actual legitimate top 4 defender that is useful and helps us win games.

    Can you imagine if we just got a couple of picks for him like COL was going to get for Duchene? Lol.

  12. Dino says:

    Also good game, I’m hoping this turns the team around and they can put a couple of wins together now. Very few complaints about last night. They have the ability to win now it’s just doing it that needs to happen.

  13. Snowman says:

    hunter1909,

    That’s why the Russell contract is so insane. You have Benning and Nurse who have either completely pushed past him in the line up or are in the process of pushing past him. Both will need new contracts and Chia overpaid Russell on term and a no move.

    Sekera with a no move. Russell with a no move. Don’t want to have to trade Larsson or Klefbom. Don’t want to have to trade Benning or Nurse…

    Nuge is really coming on this year. He’s making it difficult for them to decide between him and Maroon. I’ve loved watching Nuge this year. He’s back making those sneaky stick lifts and take aways. Playing sound on both ends. Scoring, winning faceoffs, dragging Lucic and whoever around all year. Chia has to find a way to keep him or start playing Drai in the middle so he can get used to playing Center full time.

    This summer is going to be full of really tough choices. Buckle up.

  14. Lowetide says:

    History tells us this month will have pain, folks. Teams rarely turn it around on demand and there are issues. 7-7-2 is a reasonable estimate for this month in my opinion.

  15. who says:

    Dino:
    At least we got a warm body for Hall that happens to be an actual legitimate top 4 defender that is useful and helps us win games.

    Can you imagine if we just got a couple of picks for him like COL was going to get for Duchene? Lol.

    Curious about that potential trade. Everybody seems to love Duschene, but at this point, is he any better than Turris, who has been a very good player for Ottawa.
    Maybe they are just trying to recover the talent they traded away in Zi
    Zebanajad.

  16. Woodguy v2.0 says:

    This year:

    Lucic-Nuge
    52.9%CF 50%GF

    Last year
    Lucic-Nuge
    50.5% CF 48.8%GF

    It seems similar, but remember that 27-93-14 went off from mid-February until the playoffs.

    Nuge from Dec 1/16-Feb 15/16 (was with Lucic for most of this)
    46.8%CF 36.6%GF

    Nuge from Feb 15/16-April 15/16
    49.2%CF 62.5%(!) GF

    The single biggest issue on this team last year was scoring/possession outside of McDavid.

    He was incredible and the 4th line was above water GF% wise (due to Pitlick’s 8 goals to start the season), but 2nd and 3rd were black holes for most of the year.

    The 2nd line seemed fixed when the playoffs came, but as we know that line corsi’d well but couldn’t score.

    If line 2 is fixed, and Nuge’s 2.36 is a great sign, then that leaves lines 3 and 4 to fix, which should be easier to do that trying to fix your top 6.

    Strome has said he’s more comfortable at C and he can fix 3C then they might have something here.

    NJD missing 3 of their top 6 forwards isn’t a great barometer for “what’s fixed” but at least it give McLellan something to chew on in terms of keeping the line construction more stable.

    It was mentioned in last night’s thread that JP on 3RW instead of Jokinen is probably a good move and I’d agree that’s a nice place to start JP.

    West Standings
    Top 3 Central
    STL +7
    WPG +4
    COL +2

    Top 3 Pacific
    LAK +4
    VGK +4
    SJS +2

    Wildcard
    VAN+2
    DAL +1
    NSH +1
    CHI+1
    MIN +1
    CGY+1
    ANA 0
    EDM -3
    ARI -11 (48.5% CF, 39.1% GF. Goalies. Man.)

    Its a long row to hoe, but if they can be in competitive in a wildcard spot by Xmas then 2nd half of the schedule is a bit “easier” than the first half.

  17. Glass says:

    That’s why I wasn’t a fan of the Russell contract. Given that he and Sekera have no moves, one of Klefbom or Nurse has to go, or we continue to severely deplete the forward corps (Nuge). We gotta now hope the cap goes up enough where we can afford to bridge Nurse and Benning, keep Nuge and let Maroon go.

  18. Woodguy v2.0 says:

    Snowman:
    hunter1909,

    That’s why the Russell contract is so insane. You have Benning and Nurse who have either completely pushed past him in the line up or are in the process of pushing past him. Both will need new contracts and Chia overpaid Russell on term and a no move.

    Sekera with a no move. Russell with a no move. Don’t want to have to trade Larsson or Klefbom. Don’t want to have to trade Benning or Nurse…

    Nuge is really coming on this year. He’s making it difficult for them to decide between him and Maroon. I’ve loved watching Nuge this year. He’s back making those sneaky stick lifts and take aways. Playing sound on both ends. Scoring, winning faceoffs, dragging Lucic and whoever around all year. Chia has to find a way to keep him or start playing Drai in the middle so he can get used to playing Center full time.

    This summer is going to be full of really tough choices. Buckle up.

    All of that adds up to Klefbom being traded for……wait for it…..a winger.

  19. hunter1909 says:

    Woodguy v2.0: All of that adds up to Klefbom being traded for……wait for it…..a winger.

    Man, some of you guys around here are like chess masters.

  20. JimmyV1965 says:

    Hall was a beast last night, but how the Devils are 9-3 is mystifying. That is not a very good team. After the end of the first period one of the announcers said we were outshot 12-8 and I said to my son there’s no way that’s possibly true. So I doubled checked on one of my apps and sure enough we were. I guess shot totals don’t tell the whole story.

  21. JimmyV1965 says:

    who: Curious about that potential trade. Everybody seems to love Duschene, but at this point, is he any better than Turris, who has been a very good player for Ottawa.
    Maybe they are just trying to recover the talent they traded away in Zi
    Zebanajad.

    Turris is a UFA next year. I’m sure that played a big part in it.

  22. Kinger_Oil.redux says:

    hunter1909:
    Oilers will make the playoffs, possibly the division.

    – Great post LT! Really is there a team in the league that has the potential to go on a heater great than us?

    – Hunter: your a beaut: all over the place in terms of prognostications for the team, flipping on a dime, but your heart is in the right place : GOILERS

    – Georges: WG is a fan of exploring things, his background isn’t statistical. So he uncovers some gems, but isn’t good at recognizing the relative contribution of different variables and relationships in the context of something with as much randomness and inputs as hockey

    – I enjoy his stuff, with massive grains of salt. His responses to you I read as: “As smart as I was 3 years ago, I’m way smarter now”

    – During this period of struggle, the amount of qualitative remarks on different players, and the coach and the GM has been discouraging.

    – If I would say that goalies were averaging .951 against us, the response would be “that’s because our systems suck, our players suck, and our team does this”. When in fact its totally the other way around all things being equal. That’s the mathematical relationship

    – We aren’t going to not score a lot more goals, we aren’t not going to have half the team with 0% shooting. We can’t say the guys suck because they don’t score goals.

    – And don’t let 5×5 shooting, or SAT or possession, or heat maps get in the way of narratives.

    – If anyone claims to “know” to a confidence interval anything other than things tend to even out, and luck plays a big part, and that this is a good team with a range of results that are possible, then they are kidding themselves.

    – Embrace the math stuff, keep doing what you all are doing, and GOILERS!

  23. Woodguy v2.0 says:

    Corsica.hockey tracks something called “game score”

    Its their GAR metric.

    There’s lots I don’t know about it, but it tracks individual’s contributions to winning/losing per game.

    Every morning they have “3 stars” the 3 players with the best “game score from the previous night”

    Here’s today’s (only 2 games last night)

    Three Stars – 2017-11-03:

    1. CONNOR.MCDAVID (0.51)
    2. ROMAN.JOSI (0.36)
    3. DRAKE.CAGGIULA (0.27)

    I missed the game.

    Was Drake on fire?

  24. Woodguy v2.0 says:

    Kinger_Oil.redux,

    – I enjoy his stuff, with massive grains of salt. His responses to you I read as: “As smart as I was 3 years ago, I’m way smarter now”

    That’s pretty much the opposite of what I wrote.

    I’d characterize it as:

    “I know now that I did not know as much as I thought I did 3 years ago”

    That you’d characterize it the opposite way is not surprising.

  25. Pescador says:

    Darnell Nurse is good at Defensing.
    Pouzar for Mayor

  26. teddyturnbuckle says:

    Nurse is playing really well, so is Nuge. Hard to believe our record is so crap with those two playing at that level.

  27. kgo says:

    How about them 1-12 coyotes?

    Can someone more statistically inclined provide a summary of what’s going wrong with that squad? Preferably someone who predicted they would turn North this year?

    Is there an easy answer? PDO… goaltending…injuries…too much skill on D…nobody to actually clear the crease and break up the cycle?

  28. Lowetide says:

    Woodguy v2.0:
    Corsica.hockey tracks something called “game score”

    Its their GAR metric.

    There’s lots I don’t know about it, but it tracks individual’s contributions to winning/losing per game.

    Every morning they have “3 stars” the 3 players with the best “game score from the previous night”

    Here’s today’s (only 2 games last night)

    Three Stars – 2017-11-03:

    1. CONNOR.MCDAVID (0.51)
    2. ROMAN.JOSI (0.36)
    3. DRAKE.CAGGIULA (0.27)

    I missed the game.

    Was Drake on fire?

    He played well, it was his best game and followed what had been his best game. Shooting a lot, hammering people, demon on the forecheck. As mentioned above, that line received a lot of defensive zone starts and the only two HDC’s were theirs.

  29. JimmyV1965 says:

    Great game last night but I agree with LT. Lots of wobble as well. Klef and Benning didn’t look good by my eye. Same with Russell. Maybe we reunite Larsson and Klef, and Benning and Nurse. Have an anchor for each pair. Weird to think of Nurse as an anchor. Talbot didn’t look right last night either. I’m no expert but it seemed like he had a hard time tracking the puck. Anyway, the boys have to make hay the next four games. Red Wings, Islanders, Devils and Rangers are all very beatable.

  30. OriginalPouzar says:

    Needed that win last nigh.

    Outshout, outchanced, outplayed and, finally, outscored the opposition.

    All four lines contributed.

    That third line was fantastic – so many great possession shifts in the offensive zone.

    We need Nuge to cut down on the defensive mistakes but how great is it to have him be a material and consistent contributor to the offence?

  31. JimmyV1965 says:

    Woodguy v2.0:
    Corsica.hockey tracks something called “game score”

    Its their GAR metric.

    There’s lots I don’t know about it, but it tracks individual’s contributions to winning/losing per game.

    Every morning they have “3 stars” the 3 players with the best “game score from the previous night”

    Here’s today’s (only 2 games last night)

    Three Stars – 2017-11-03:

    1. CONNOR.MCDAVID (0.51)
    2. ROMAN.JOSI (0.36)
    3. DRAKE.CAGGIULA (0.27)

    I missed the game.

    Was Drake on fire?

    He was a beast. Fast and tenacious. Something like six hits. He’s always making something happen. If he discovers his scoring touch he’s a legit top 6 winger.

  32. hankster says:

    Again with this Russell trashing. Would you pay him $3m, 2m or have him pay you instead?
    The difference in salary could be made up elsewhere, like getting value contracts from peripheral players who contribute. That’s the new cap world.
    He has the speed for the ever speedier game now. He’s not 1D but a stopgap solution as planned.
    Oh right somehow he was connected to Hall Demers lucic, larsson, ergo he’s crap. You know what’s crap? The blatant bias of a few…. Some even hide behind a veil of numbers to prove nothing…sigh

  33. OriginalPouzar says:

    Russell with the lowest TOI for the d-man.

    I know Lowetide speculates that may be a function of an injury but I would posit its a function of him getting passed on the left side depth chart by Nurse.

    A Russell/Sekera 3rd pairing would be championship caliber D-depth.

    Keep it going Darnell and Matty!

  34. Kinger_Oil.redux says:

    Woodguy v2.0,

    – Listen WG: I bet if we met up we’d be fast friends. A blog is a hard place to communicate, with a tone etc. I enjoy reading your stuff. To the extent that you are less definitive and argumentative you would be the holy grail of posters IMO.

    – As it is keep up the good work, try not to take things so personal, be humble and kind, respond to others how you’d like to be responded to and we’d be all good

    – Like George I have recognized a change in your analysis: seemingly leaving aside some tenants that you held dear, to push the no secondary scoring, bad coach system, bad trades narrative

    – And the contrast between the actual results and some of the hockey fundamentals support you on the actual results department, but structurally and by most stats available this is a much better team

    – By order of magnitude, the luck has been the other way and that has effected results far greater than I think most people appreciate. Far more than systems, individual play, Strome vs Ebs, etc

    – Anyway we will see, I will let you have the last word.

  35. Louis Levasseur says:

    Good game last night. I was and am a Hall fan. Enjoy watching his skill. Last night he seemed to play really hard, fast and smart for the first 2 periods. But then in the 3rd period, as he likes to do, he tried to do it all by himself. I feel with him that he is most effective when less is more.

    He reminds me of Tanner from the original Bad News Bears. “Who did Tanner fight”? “The 7th grade”!

  36. Lowetide says:

    OriginalPouzar:
    Russell with the lowest TOI for the d-man.

    I know Lowetide speculates that may be a function of an injury but I would posit its a function of him getting passed on the left side depth chart by Nurse.

    A Russell/Sekera 3rd pairing would be championship caliber D-depth.

    Keep it going Darnell and Matty!

    Yeah, I’d agree with his getting passed by Nurse. It’s possible, and this is interesting, the THIRD PAIR will be Sekera-Russell when Rej returns in December.

  37. Woodguy v2.0 says:

    hunter1909: Man, some of you guys around here are like chess masters.

    I play 1 dimension checkers

  38. Woodguy v2.0 says:

    Lowetide: He played well, it was his best game and followed what had been his best game. Shooting a lot, hammering people, demon on the forecheck. As mentioned above, that line received a lot of defensive zone starts and the only two HDC’s were theirs.

    Thanks for that.

  39. dykema8 says:

    Really liked slepys game last night. He’s fast, skilled and mostly made good plays out there. Wouldn’t mind seeing him get a shot with McDavid, put Leon with nuge and see what happens.

  40. Woodguy v2.0 says:

    Kinger_Oil.redux,

    You said this:

    . His responses to you I read as: “As smart as I was 3 years ago, I’m way smarter now”

    and then this:

    try not to take things so personal

    Haha!

  41. Mr. D. says:

    Klef’s Forte isn’t in the D zone. He’s pretty soft and slow at making decisions. His offense always trumped(npi) his defense. He’s had no offense up to this point so people looked at his d and yikes.

    p3rsonman:
    Entertaining game last night. Despite him being the enemy now I still enjoy watching Hall play.

    Is Klefbom OK? His decision making this season has been very questionable. He looks like a rookie in the D zone sometimes.

  42. Georges says:

    WG:

    From the previous thread:

    “Does shot share predict future goal share? Yes, to a point (I think the general r2 is 25)”

    Don’t know what you had in mind with “general”? (I’m working hella hard in my ESL classes… it’s a struggle…)

    But I do know what an r^2 is and it can’t be greater than 1.

    I’m going to assume you meant 0.25.

    You should test your assumptions. Pull the data to the end of November for the last 2 seasons and see how early season shot metrics correlate with rest of season goal share.

  43. Mr. D. says:

    From my perspective Benning continues to show serious inconsistancy. He makes his numbers look better by taking long weak shots although he made a nice pass on the Drai goal. He d be my odd man out when Sekara comes back.
    KLEF LARSON
    NURSE SEKERA
    RUSSELL GRYBA

  44. Lowetide says:

    Something about opinions. If you go back to 2007 on this blog (I’m restructuring them, so they are not public currently) you will find many differences in my opinions over time. At those moments, I may or may not have acknowledged the change, but we morph as we learn and sometimes it isn’t noticed (by individual or the group).

    Among those who drill down on the numbers, I’ve found WG to be very open and consistent in acknowledging changes in view. I make it a point not to get involved in these discussions because it’s like listening in at the coffee shop. At some level, none of my business.

    today, I felt it important to chime in because this is a bit of a complicated issue. Sometimes in life things can appear to be signs of weakness or addled thinking, when they are in fact great strengths.

    As you were.

  45. Todd Macallan says:

    Lowetide: Yeah, I’d agree with his getting passed by Nurse. It’s possible, and this is interesting, the THIRD PAIR will be Sekera-Russell when Rej returns in December.

    Perhaps it’s the eternal optimist in me, but if I were a betting man I would say Reggie gets into a game in the last week of Nov., if the recovery continues on like the good-natured locomotive it has been so far.

  46. thehop says:

    Pescador,

    Slepyshev is a great add to the top 6.
    #freeslepyisreal
    Pouzar for Prime Minister

  47. thehop says:

    Todd Macallan,

    9.5 million dollar third pairing…yikes.

  48. OriginalPouzar says:

    leadfarmer: His game is especially made for playoffs where he can make life absolutely miserable for opposing forwards game after game.Seems like Larson’s d partner seems to always thrive with him just like Sekera’s.It’s nice to have a soft landing spot like that for a young player being bumped up from 3rd pair to first pair in the course of several games

    Bumped up, yes, but on merit – deserving of Nurse – he’s been the most consistent, and maybe the best, left shot D on the team this year.

  49. OriginalPouzar says:

    flyfish1168: We alllove a hard working blue collar type of player. Unfortunately chances are it is also hard on his body. I just hope Adam picks his spots and TMac is careful with usage so he can heal between games.

    That’s what I was thinking last year including through the playoffs – that his body was going to break down at some point playing that style – he just kept playing and playing the same way missing, what was it, one game?

  50. Woodguy v2.0 says:

    Georges:
    WG:

    From the previous thread:

    “Does shot share predict future goal share? Yes, to a point (I think the general r2 is 25)”

    Don’t know what you had in mind with “general”? (I’m working hella hard in my ESL classes… it’s a struggle…)

    But I do know what an r^2 is and it can’t be greater than 1.

    I’m going to assume you meant 0.25.

    You should test your assumptions. Pull the data to the end of November for the last 2 seasons and see how early season shot metrics correlate with rest of season goal share.

    Yes, .25

    “general” as in the r2 changes with games played and maxes out near .25

    Just had a look and .30 was probably a better number there: https://hockey-graphs.com/2015/10/01/expected-goals-are-a-better-predictor-of-future-scoring-than-corsi-goals/

    Also,

    You should test your assumptions. Pull the data to the end of November for the last 2 seasons and see how early season shot metrics correlate with rest of season goal share.

    I’ve got some time and I’ll see what I find.

    We’re not at the end of November though.

    We’re at the end of October.

  51. Johnny Eyetest says:

    kgo:
    How about them 1-12 coyotes?

    Can someone more statistically inclined provide a summary of what’s going wrong with that squad? Preferably someone who predicted they would turn North this year?

    Is there an easy answer? PDO… goaltending…injuries…too much skill on D…nobody to actually clear the crease and break up the cycle?

    I’ve been wanting to ask the exact same question.

  52. meanashell11 says:

    I thought we figured out all this Russell contract crap over the summer. There is going to be a lockout/walkout in a couple of years. There is always a chance to buy out these contracts with little penalty. That is what will happen to Russell.

    Let’s move on.

  53. OriginalPouzar says:

    flyfish1168: We alllove a hard working blue collar type of player. Unfortunately chances are it is also hard on his body. I just hope Adam picks his spots and TMac is careful with usage so he can heal between games.

    That’s what I was thinking last year including through the playoffs – that his body was going to break down at some point playing that style – he just kept playing and playing the same way missing, what was it, one game?

    thehop:
    Todd Macallan,

    9.5 million dollar third pairing…yikes.

    < $6M top pairing and < $6M second pairing.

    Don't care how much cap hit any particular line or combo takes up, doesn't matter one iota to me or to our coach, Todd McLellan. Coach has a 23 man roster that fits under the cap and he needs to deploy it in a manner that gives the team the best chance to win the game that night – if that means $10M on the 3rd pairing (as it likely will), then so be it – that also means our top 2 pairs are providing extreme value.

  54. meanashell11 says:

    Another thing. I really hate comments like ‘I hope he does not play well or how are we going to afford him next contract”…… Really? That’s really a thing?

  55. flyfish1168 says:

    Woodguy v2.0:
    This year:

    Lucic-Nuge
    52.9%CF 50%GF

    Last year
    Lucic-Nuge
    50.5% CF 48.8%GF

    It seems similar, but remember that 27-93-14 went off from mid-February until the playoffs.

    Nuge from Dec 1/16-Feb 15/16 (was with Lucic for most of this)
    46.8%CF 36.6%GF

    Nuge from Feb 15/16-April 15/16
    49.2%CF 62.5%(!) GF

    The single biggest issue on this team last year was scoring/possession outside of McDavid.

    He was incredible and the 4th line was above water GF% wise (due to Pitlick’s 8 goals to start the season), but 2nd and 3rd were black holes for most of the year.

    The 2nd line seemed fixed when the playoffs came, but as we know that line corsi’d well but couldn’t score.

    If line 2 is fixed, and Nuge’s 2.36 is a great sign, then that leaves lines 3 and 4 to fix, which should be easier to do that trying to fix your top 6.

    Strome has said he’s more comfortable at C and he can fix 3C then they might have something here.

    NJD missing 3 of their top 6 forwards isn’t a great barometer for “what’s fixed” but at least it give McLellan something to chew on in terms of keeping the line construction more stable.

    It was mentioned in last night’s thread that JP on 3RW instead of Jokinen is probably a good move and I’d agree that’s a nice place to start JP.

    West Standings
    Top 3 Central
    STL +7
    WPG +4
    COL +2

    Top 3 Pacific
    LAK +4
    VGK +4
    SJS +2

    Wildcard
    VAN+2
    DAL +1
    NSH +1
    CHI+1
    MIN +1
    CGY+1
    ANA 0
    EDM -3
    ARI -11 (48.5% CF, 39.1% GF.Goalies. Man.)

    Its a long row to hoe, but if they can be in competitive in a wildcard spot by Xmas then 2nd half of the schedule is a bit “easier” than the first half.

    WG how much would it mean if we beat up on our division rivals and keep it to a 2 point game in the standing?

  56. hunter1909 says:

    JimmyV1965: Hall was a beast last night, but how the Devils are 9-3 is mystifying.

    Forgive my lapsed memories, but if memory serves the Tom Renney Oilers got off to a similar start; replete with a World Class goal by Cam Barker during one of the early games before Khabibulin stopped stopping everything.

    For all of the hype Taylor Hall deservedly gets, he’s still playing on a weak hockey team.

  57. who says:

    Lowetide: Yeah, I’d agree with his getting passed by Nurse. It’s possible, and this is interesting, the THIRD PAIR will be Sekera-Russell when Rej returns in December.

    Actually , when Sekera gets up to speed, there’s a very good chance the third pairing could be Klefbom /Russell.

  58. hunter1909 says:

    hankster: Again with this Russell trashing.

    He always seems like a decent second pairing defenceman.

    But, I only watch the games.

  59. Woodguy v2.0 says:

    Reid Wilkins‏Verified account @ReidWilkins 4m4 minutes ago

    Oilers practicing in advance of tomorrow’s matinee. Slepyshev not on the ice.

    Dammit!

  60. Woodguy v2.0 says:

    flyfish1168: WG how much would it mean if we beat up on our division rivals and keep it to a 2 point game in the standing?

    Winning WC games is everything right now.

  61. Crazy Pedestrian says:

    Snowman:
    hunter1909,

    That’s why the Russell contract is so insane. You have Benning and Nurse who have either completely pushed past him in the line up or are in the process of pushing past him. Both will need new contracts and Chia overpaid Russell on term and a no move.

    Sekera with a no move. Russell with a no move. Don’t want to have to trade Larsson or Klefbom. Don’t want to have to trade Benning or Nurse…

    Nuge is really coming on this year. He’s making it difficult for them to decide between him and Maroon. I’ve loved watching Nuge this year. He’s back making those sneaky stick lifts and take aways. Playing sound on both ends. Scoring, winning faceoffs, dragging Lucic and whoever around all year. Chia has to find a way to keep him or start playing Drai in the middle so he can get used to playing Center full time.

    This summer is going to be full of really tough choices. Buckle up.

    What we truly need, is for the cap to raise by $10M
    ALL PROBLEMS SOLVED!!

  62. JimmyV1965 says:

    OriginalPouzar: That’s what I was thinking last year including through the playoffs – that his body was going to break down at some point playing that style – he just kept playing and playing the same way missing, what was it, one game?

    I’m actually more worried about the Drake getting hurt. He’s so frickin physical and when he goes after the real big guys it lookis like he takes as much punishment as he gives out. Crossing fingers.

  63. hunter1909 says:

    Kinger_Oil.redux,

    Some of Woodguy’s posts remind me of a Soviet Red Army artillery barrage.

    All there is to do is try to dig yourself into the ground as deep as possible without getting buried alive by the sheer volume/force of his…eloquence.

  64. Bling says:

    Larsson was incredible last night after a few so-so games. You can tell that he is starting to get a bit more confident and creative offensively.

    Some examples:

    1) Leon wins a d-zone draw, Larsson collects it behind the goal line and sends a slow bank-pass to McDavid for an easy breakout. Love that play.

    2) Plays give and go in the offensive zone, ends up with a great high danger scoring chance in the slot.

    3) Had a sequence on the point where, instead of dumping a wrist shot on net or into the corner, actually dangled a couple of guys at the top of the circle.

    Klef is still struggling a bit to my eye. A few gaps in d-zone coverage. There were also a few times when he had the puck in a good spot on the rush and didn’t do much (in the third period, he made a pass to no one that went into the corner on a promising offensive rush). Very good player, though, I don’t expect this slump of his to last much longer.

  65. Bag of Pucks says:

    LT, we can appreciate Connor’s current dominance and still opine about those areas in which he’ll most likely improve. These two things aren’t mutually exclusive. Even the player himself would likely acknowledge there are areas he can improve.

    This is the beauty of generational players. You can have very high expectations for them cos even after their initial ceiling proves to be amazingly high, they still have that ability to go even higher.

    My take is Connor likely can’t get much better skillwise but he will get better in terms of his reads, defensive play, faceoffs, and deception.

  66. JimmyV1965 says:

    hunter1909: Forgive my lapsed memories, but if memory serves the Tom Renney Oilers got off to a similar start; replete with a World Class goal by Cam Barker during one of the early games before Khabibulin stopped stopping everything.

    For all of the hype Taylor Hall deservedly gets, he’s still playing on a weak hockey team.

    Weird. I was thinking the exact same thing and feeling bad for Hall. We had Khabibulin knocking it out of the park and covering up for a bad team. We fell to earth and as good as Scheider is the Devils will too. Sucks for Hall though. He’s carrying a bad team yet again.

  67. thehop says:

    OriginalPouzar
    OriginalPouzar,

    Great job of framing your argument. I still don’t think it’s smart especially considering the term on both their contracts.

    Our best dman is probably going to need a raise next year as well. So the extreme value is there for another 10 months.

    I like Sekera, Russell not so much and I’d ship either one of the out if it meant signing Nurse long term.

  68. Georges says:

    Woodguy v2.0: Yes, .25

    “general” as in the r2 changes with games played and maxes out near .25

    Just had a look and .30 was probably a better number there: https://hockey-graphs.com/2015/10/01/expected-goals-are-a-better-predictor-of-future-scoring-than-corsi-goals/

    Also,

    You should test your assumptions. Pull the data to the end of November for the last 2 seasons and see how early season shot metrics correlate with rest of season goal share.

    I’ve got some time and I’ll see what I find.

    We’re not at the end of November though.

    We’re at the end of October.

    When it comes time to “test how past results predict future results”, DTM goes about it the wrong way. I told you this before. He’s going to overstate the r^2. Tulsky realized this wasn’t the right approach in his post on SAF. You should only use prior time steps to predict the next time step when you’re training a predictive model for time dependent data. If you don’t do it this way then you really, really need to have the training to know what you’re doing and why. By randomly sampling and creating partitions from all of the available training games in the season, DTM (like JLikens before) is calculating a kind of reliability coefficient. Which is not that useful; it mostly reflects the magnitude of the variance in the original data. (i.e., If the units of observation are very different on the metric of interest, then you’re more likely to see a higher correlation between partitions of the overall sample.)

    End of November because it’s past the 20 game threshold. That’s what I tried. You could try whatever you like.

  69. Bag of Pucks says:

    So happy to see the payoff this team is getting in finally showing the necessary patience with a prospect like Nurse. The number of times he was traded on this board….lol

    Have to give some serious props to Nuge too. He ‘s taken a big step this year and it appears I wasn’t as patient with this player as I was with Darnell. I blame it on the fact that I played D. I’m harder on these showboat forwards : )

    I was a big advocate of moving RNH to the W to unlock his offense. BUT if he can unlock his own offense at C AND win faceoffs? Now we have some options!

    For this team to seriously contend for a Cup, they need 3 legit scoring lines. If Nuge continues this trend towards driver, that moves us a big step closer and makes it more important than ever to move Leon to C. Todd has the options at C to make this a reality. I hope he sees it.

    And yes, it’s still as entertaining as ever watching Taylor Hall hockeying. Miss that guy.

  70. ashley says:

    If we were collecting quotes, I have a hundred or so on Larsson last year at this time. Slow. Defers to Klefbom. Klefbom is the key to the pairing. Unsure of what to do with the puck. Poor coverage.

    I acknowledge that a lot of this could be attributed to the bitterness of trading Hall to get him, but I don’t think any of these things have ever been true.

    To be completely fair, those criticisms all disappeared half way through the year last year and the great hockey minds on this blog saw him for the quality that he is. By playoffs, the praise was coming in heaps.

    They haven’t spent a lot of time apart, but I think we can see that the key to the defensive part of the Swedish pairing is in fact Larsson. Klefbom makes some poor decisions sometimes, and gets caught wandering. Larsson cheats back to cover for him, but feels a little more loose with a more responsible Nurse as a pairing partner. We saw some of his creativity last night.

    Still, I like the Swedes together best. I think it brings out the best of Klefbom for the team. I bite my nails with Klefbom/Benning on the ice. It’s high risk, high reward deployment.

  71. Scungilli Slushy says:

    Larsson is a beauty. For me he is the Oilers best D and definitely a first pair D on most teams because of his overall game. No he isn’t a top 5 in the league, but if he was quicker he would be IMO. In his two years with the Oilers his EV points are within 2 of Klefbom.

    If he had the same usage as Klef he’d be ahead, Klef has the green light and gets more opportunity to work on his offense because of that and getting the PP time. Larsson is a subtle player but really effective most nights. I do wish he’d tone down the hitting some, it would be devastating to lose him for long.

    Slepy had a nice game, he has a head for the game I think he just needs time to settle in and the coaches pushing him to look for more offense. Often it seems players have to nail it right off the bat or they start bouncing them around. Part of that could be the old trick to get players to play the system as they can’t settle in. On the other hand not every player can jump in and excel, they need time. Many of the younger players on other teams we covet get that chance I think and can grow in their role. I hope they let him run with better players long enough.

    Cags needs to play to his strengths – speed and tenacity. It concerns me that he hits so much. I don’t think it will work in the long run because of his size, he gets knocked around a lot and he took a few to the head again last night. He doesn’t have to hit so much to be effective, he should try to disrupt and look to score more and hit lees IMO. I think he is still finding his NHL game.

    I see what Chiarelli liked in Strome. He is a smart player and quite effective when he is skating. I think like Slepy he needs time, to work back into his offense, I think he could easily cover the bet as a 40-50 point player with good enough linemates. If he keeps bouncing around I’m not sure he will however. As WG said if he could be an effective 3C it would be a big thing, his salary is right and long term they can’t have a 6M player there, Letestu and Khaira aren’t good enough, nobody on the farm.

    Nurse has passed Russell. With how many contracts they have coming up, I wonder if Chiarelli will ask players to waive NMC’s if they are not meeting the level of those contracts. I think that would be fair. At this point I’d far rather have Nuge and Maroon as wingers than carry Lucic and Russell.

    EDIT: Ashley beat me to it!

  72. ashley says:

    The data from RNH are interesting. I maintain that one year is far too small a sample to reach sweeping conclusions. Hockey is prone to streaks of bad luck and a lot of luck in general which can make a player look bad for an extended period of time despite doing good things on the ice. RNH is a very valuable player. There aren’t many skilled two way centers that are such a threat to score.

    I would never trade him. Maroon is a valuable item too, but replaceable on McDavid’s wing.

  73. Woodguy v2.0 says:

    Johnny Eyetest: I’ve been wanting to ask the exact same question.

    They started poorly, lost Raanta and things snowballed.

    Dpair issues:

    Chychrun still out after surgery.

    They started with OEL-Hjarlmasson on top pair and they went:

    40%CF and 20%GF (1-4) together in the first 4 games.

    They moved up Demers with OEL and they’ve gone:

    59%CF and 52% GF (11-0) since so the 1st pair shored up.

    Then they moved Hjarlm to 2nd pair with Goligoski:

    They went 45%CF and 25% GF (1-3) in their 5 games together.

    Then they moved Schenn up to play with Goligoski but it hasn’t been great either

    45%CF 33%GF (1-2)

    Then Hjarml slips down to 3rd pair with Clengdenning and it doesn’t get better.

    Now they call up rookie Dakota Mermis to play 2nd pair with Goligoski while Schenn plays with Connauton on the 3rd pair.

    Clendenning is waived and Hjarlm is now in IR.

    Not sure if he was trying to play hurt all year or not. He has not been good.

    So Hjarlm not being good and Chychrun out has blown up the Dcorps plan.

    They have a good 1st pair with OEL-Demers, but after that its a mess.

    Also,

    While all this is going on Raanta plays only 3 games and then gets hurt.

    In his 3 games he was .883 (all situations) and not very good and then got hurt.

    Then Domingue came out of the bullpen and spray gasoline on the fire with a .856 in 7 games (including relief appearances)

    He gets waived and they go to Hill and trade for Wedgewood from NJD.

    Hill gets in three games and puts up a .887 so not good, but better than Domingue.

    Wedgewood has been better in his two games .900, but its early on him too.

    Funny thing is that ARI had to recall Domingue and send Hill down on Wednesday or else ARI would be in violation of the cap for not having enough money on the roster.

    Good times.

    Also,

    Their top 3 lines haven’t been bad in context of the Dcorps and goalies.

    What went wrong?

    1) Hjarlmasson being bad threw a wrench in the plan and everyone (myself included) had him penciled in the top 4 and even with OEL, this left them thin as Goligoski is good, but needs a good partner as he’s more offensive than defensive (Klef type)

    2) Goalies – Raanta getting hurt kept him from righting his ship. His history suggests he’ll be much better.

    Raanta is back, but gave up 5 in his first game back. He’ll be better.

    If Hjarlm is better after coming off IR that will help.

    Chychrun will probably play 3rd pair with Schenn when he gets back.

    They still need to find a 2RD for Goligoski, hopefully for them Hjarml will be better.

    That’s my take.

  74. JustWatt says:

    Mr. D.:
    From my perspective Benning continues to show serious inconsistancy. He makes his numbers look better by taking long weak shots although he made a nice pass on the Drai goal. He d be my odd man out when Sekara comes back.
    KLEF LARSON
    NURSE SEKERA
    RUSSELL GRYBA

    You think that Gryba deserves that 3RD over Benning? As everyone is currently playing I think I’d start with

    NURSE LARSSON
    KLEF RUSSEL
    SEKSY BENNING
    GRYBA

    It gives Klefbom a defensively responsible partner and slightly less ice time while he gets his mojo back. Benning and 50% of Sekera ought to kill the weak sisters defensively and offensively. And roll Gryba out for Benning when they play the bigger tougher teams.

  75. hunter1909 says:

    Bag of Pucks: My take is Connor likely can’t get much better skillwise but he will get better in terms of his reads, defensive play, faceoffs, and deception.

    You mean as in:

    defensive skills

    faceoff skills

    Disagree on the deception part, though. Great players don’t need to deceive. It’s playing the way they naturally play that drives the opposition insane.

  76. Side says:

    Woodguy v2.0: They started poorly, lost Raanta and things snowballed.

    Dpair issues:

    Chychrun still out after surgery.

    They started with OEL-Hjarlmasson on top pair and they went:

    40%CF and 20%GF (1-4) together in the first 4 games.

    They moved up Demers with OEL and they’ve gone:

    59%CF and 52% GF (11-0) since so the 1st pair shored up.

    Then they moved Hjarlm to 2nd pair with Goligoski:

    They went 45%CF and 25% GF (1-3) in their 5 games together.

    Then they moved Schenn up to play with Goligoski but it hasn’t been great either

    45%CF 33%GF (1-2)

    Then Hjarml slips down to 3rd pair with Clengdenning and it doesn’t get better.

    Now they call up rookie Dakota Mermis to play 2nd pair with Goligoski while Schenn plays with Connauton on the 3rd pair.

    Clendenning is waived and Hjarlm is now in IR.

    Not sure if he was trying to play hurt all year or not.He has not been good.

    So Hjarlm not being good and Chychrun out has blown up the Dcorps plan.

    They have a good 1st pair with OEL-Demers, but after that its a mess.

    Also,

    While all this is going on Raanta plays only 3 games and then gets hurt.

    In his 3 games he was .883 (all situations)and not very good and then got hurt.

    Then Domingue came out of the bullpen and spray gasoline on the fire with a .856 in 7 games (including relief appearances)

    He gets waived and they go to Hill and trade for Wedgewood from NJD.

    Hill gets in three games and puts up a .887 so not good, but better than Domingue.

    Wedgewood has been better in his two games .900, but its early on him too.

    Funny thing is that ARI had to recall Domingue and send Hill down on Wednesday or else ARI would be in violation of the cap for not having enough money on the roster.

    Good times.

    Also,

    Their top 3 lines haven’t been bad in context of the Dcorps and goalies.

    What went wrong?

    1) Hjarlmasson being bad through a wrench in the plan and everyone (myself included) had him penciled in the top 4 and even with OEL, this left them thin as Goligoski is good, but needs a good partner as he’s more offensive than defensive (Klef type)

    2) Goalies – Raanta getting hurt kept him from righting his ship.His history suggests he’ll be much better.

    Raanta is back, but gave up 5 in his first game back.He’ll be better.

    If Hjarlm is better after coming off IR that will help.

    Chychrun will probably play 3rd pair with Schenn when he gets back.

    They still need to find a 2RD for Goligoski, hopefully for them Hjarml will be better.

    That’s my take.

    Thanks for this. Now it’ll be even more depressing if the Oilers lose to Arizona.

  77. Woodguy v2.0 says:

    hunter1909:
    Kinger_Oil.redux,

    Some of Woodguy’s posts remind me of a Soviet Red Army artillery barrage.

    All there is to do is try to dig yourself into the ground as deep as possible without getting buried alive by the sheer volume/force of his…eloquence.

    I post the data so that:

    1) People can see what I’m referencing

    2) They can see the data and come to their own conclusions

    I agree that my posts are usually too long though.

    The more context you need the most words.

    I also drink a lot of coffee

  78. Side says:

    Bag of Pucks:
    LT, we can appreciate Connor’s current dominance and still opine about those areas in which he’ll most likely improve. These two things aren’t mutually exclusive. Even the player himself would likely acknowledge there are areas he can improve.

    This is the beauty of generational players. You can have very high expectations for them cos even after their initial ceiling proves to be amazingly high, they still have that ability to go even higher.

    My take is Connor likely can’t get much better skillwise but he will get better in terms of his reads, defensive play, faceoffs, and deception.

    Not sure how you can say a player who’s not even in his prime can’t improve his skills. Especially when it’s McDavid.

  79. Woodguy v2.0 says:

    Georges,

    End of November because it’s past the 20 game threshold. That’s what I tried. You could try whatever you like.

    I’m honestly confused.

    The subject yesterday was their score adjusted FF% after 11 games.

    I agree that it will be more informative after 22 games or so.

    I though my lack of confidence in that number after 11 games was the issue?

  80. Scungilli Slushy says:

    Woodguy v2.0: I post the data so that:

    1) People can see what I’m referencing

    2) They can see the data and come to their own conclusions

    I agree that my posts are usually too long though.

    The more context you need the most words.

    I also drink a lot of coffee

    I enjoy your data posts. They aren’t too long because they are all content. Not many post that type of thing now and few would have your grasp on how the metrics work and what their shortcomings are, even if you aren’t a PHD statistician.

    Just stop being a dink to me when you disagree with what I write 🙂

  81. OmJo says:

    1. Nuge! How about that Nuge? Not going out without a fight.

    2. Nurse! He might not be Pronger but man is he becoming one hell of a defenceman! For me he’s been the bright spot of the season so far. Patience. It’s a thing. Especially for defencemen.

    3. Win! This fanbase is an emotional trainwreck lol. I don’t mean that in a bad way, and I’m not excluding myself. When we win all is good, when we lose we’re ready to fire everybody.

    4. Hall! Even on the Devils he’s still helping Nuge produce offence. Great player, in all seriousness.

  82. Bag of Pucks says:

    Side: Not sure how you can say a player who’s not even in his prime can’t improve his skills. Especially when it’s McDavid.

    Depends how you define ‘skills’ I guess. I’m referring to his innate athletic traits (hand-eye, balance, conditioning, etc.) not learned traits like positioning, passing, etc. Athletically, I guess he could theoretically get better. But the athleticism is pretty off the charts already.

    The larger point I’m making in regards to LT’s post is it’s fair to expect more and this season could be the best. Season 3 for Gretzky was that amazing 92 G 212 PT tour.

  83. Scungilli Slushy says:

    Sekera may not have the best season when he gets back. He’s missed too much hockey and won’t be in game shape for months if he even catches up, look how many young players have weak seasons if they can’t rain in summer, and he’s 31.

    I wonder if Nurse would be decent right side now that his reads are improving?

    Klef Larsson
    Russel Nurse
    Sekera Benning/Gryba

    Three pairs with puck movers, it would help the bottom 6 forwards out a lot I think. If Sekera comes back strong

    Klef Larsson
    Nurse Sekera
    Russell Benning/ Gryba

    is what I expect after things stabilize.

    Edit: train in summer

  84. Side says:

    Bag of Pucks: Depends how you define ‘skills’ I guess. I’m referring to his innate athletic traits (hand-eye, balance, conditioning, etc.) not learned traits like positioning, passing, etc. Athletically, I guess he could theoretically get better. But the athleticism is pretty off the charts already.

    I’ve always assumed the physical prime for malea typically peaks at age 24 or around there which means he should be physically stronger, have better reflexes, conditioning, speed, etc. Everyone’s different though. But I would be willing to bet the 24 year old McDavid will be better in all areas than current model McDavid.. which is insane given how good he already is.

  85. Pouzar says:

    -Slepy looked great. Highest possession of any forward not on the first line. One of the few guys who can skate end to end with speed with the puck. Tenacious on the forecheck and backcheck.
    -Nurse isn’t “maybe” the best LHD on the team right now. He is and it’s not close.
    -Klef is bleeding defensively. His gap sucks and he looks like he is processing the game in slow motion.
    -Caggs looks waaaaaaay quicker/faster to me.
    -Dylan is better as a center. The 3rd line was good but slacked off a bit in period 3. Keep em together.

  86. Georges says:

    Woodguy v2.0:
    Georges,

    End of November because it’s past the 20 game threshold. That’s what I tried. You could try whatever you like.

    I’m honestly confused.

    The subject yesterday was their score adjusted FF% after 11 games.

    I agree that it will be more informative after 22 games or so.

    I though my lack of confidence in that number after 11 games was the issue?

    Above, I quoted this line from the earlier thread:

    “Does shot share predict future goal share? Yes, to a point (I think the general r2 is 25)”

    To me, predict means using prior time step data to forecast next time step data. So if shot share predicts future goal share in a season, I look at the shot share for the first part of the season and test its correlation with goal share in the remainder of the season. I can define first part and remainder differently and see how the correlation changes but I always make sure that the partitions are clearly marked past and future. If there is a reasonable positive correlation between shot share and future goal share and the correlation persists over a number of seasons, then I’m more likely to believe that early season shot share gives me information on remaining season goal share.

    What do you mean by “predict” and what are the conditions in which r2 between shot share and goal share is calculated to be 25? And have you verified for yourself if there is a similar sized correlation under the same conditions in the past 2 seasons? If the answer is yes and you did what DTM did then your “predict” is very different from my “predict”.

    (It’s probably me. I’m not good at the English but I’m going ham in my ESL night classes. I’ve recently learned that obtuse can be used to describe people as well as triangles. How is this possible? Thank you for your continuing patience.)

  87. GMB3 says:

    meanashell11:
    I thought we figured out all this Russell contract crap over the summer. There is going to be a lockout/walkout in a couple of years. There is always a chance to buy out these contracts with little penalty. That is what will happen to Russell.

    Let’s move on.

    God damn, it is so irritating when someone with such a half baked opinion feels so entitled they can drop the “let’s move on” like they have any right to dictate the discussion on this board.

    You do realize that the most difficult decisions will come this summer right? Because of Lucic and Russell we will have to move on from one (or more) of RNH and Maroon. Those are two far superior players.

    It also throws a wrinkle in the future of Benning or Nurse with this team. This is clear as day. It’s a relevant issue with the future of this team with far-reaching implications.

  88. Pouzar says:

    F^*k

    Edmonton Oilers‏Verified account @EdmontonOilers 11m11 minutes ago
    More
    Coach McLellan adds Slepyshev missed #Oilers practice today after getting injured late in the game last night. “Doubtful” for tomorrow.

  89. Snowman says:

    Woodguy v2.0: All of that adds up to Klefbom being traded for……wait for it…..a winger.

    I think there’s a good chance Woodguy is right here.

    Lets just look at this logically and do the “math”.

    You have a top 6 of Larsson, Sekera, Russell, Benning, Nurse and Klefbom.

    You literally can’t move Sekera or Russell (NMC) so they’re out.

    You can’t move Larsson because Taylor Hall. People would riot.

    You can’t move Benning because I believe the organization (rightfully) believes in lefty-righty d pairs and he’s good.

    So that leaves Nurse and Oscar. You can’t afford to keep everyone and re-up Nurse and Benning. Nurse is coming along. The organization is pushing the Nurse narrative. He’s playing top pair. He’s playing well (for 11 games).

    Oscar is struggling (bad reads, offense struggling). I’ve already heard a couple times about how Larsson helped prop up Oscar on the broadcasts and Bob has made similar comments on his show.

    There’s good D bubbling under, Oscar is struggling, Nurse is ready, Russell helps stabilize the back end and he can play both sides with Sekera, you can’t have a 4M third pair dman, blah blah blah…

    See ya later Oscar.

    I think there’s a very real possibility this happens. Especially if Nurse keeps playing well. Especially if Oscar is inconsistent this year. Chia created this problem with Russells contract.

    There’s a non zero chance Klefbom gets moved. And honestly even if you think it’s 10% chance that’s 10% too high.

    And even if the org decides its Benning who has to go is that really any better? Chia really messed up with the Russell contract regardless of what you think of Russell’s ability.

  90. GMB3 says:

    Pouzar:
    -Slepy looked great. Highest possession of any forward not on the first line. One of the few guys who can skate end to end with speed with the puck. Tenacious on the forecheck and backcheck.
    -Nurse isn’t “maybe” the best LHD on the team right now. He is and it’s not close.
    -Klef is bleeding defensively. His gap sucks and he looks like he is processing the game in slow motion.
    -Caggs lookswaaaaaaay quicker/faster to me.
    -Dylan is better as a center. The 3rd line was good but slacked off a bit in period 3. Keep em together.

    I thought Stromes first period was his best as an Oiler. He was flying, all over the ice. From my eye, he looks better when he’s the player trying to drive play for his line.

  91. Pouzar says:

    GMB3: I thought Stromes first period was his best as an Oiler.

    I did too…it’s like he was told to “start skating or else!”

  92. Pouzar says:

    Snowman: You literally can’t move Sekera or Russell (NMC) so they’re out.

    They can be moved, they just have to agree.

  93. Snowman says:

    Pouzar,

    How often do people waive nmc to leave the team with the best player in the world? I know its possible but would you do it if you were them?

    I mean Russell is from Alberta. Sekera maybe would want to go somewhere warm with his wife but I don’t know man…

    Waiving to leave Mcdavid just seems unlikely.

  94. season not played says:

    Someone on yesterday’s thread suggested Rattie as an option. I agree with that, he might likely be their best pure shooter and is worth a shot to get Leon on his own line. In fact, I think I threw that out a couple days ago.
    Lucic McDavid Rattie
    Maroon Drai strome
    Caggiula RNH Jesse
    Slepy letestu kassian
    Nurse Larsson
    Klef benning
    Russ gryba

    Let her buck

  95. LadiesloveSmid says:

    Nurse and Klef weren’t in the same stratosphere last season. If they trade Klef based on 11 games, then well then I wouldn’t be all that surprised. They turn their kings and jacks into 6s and 7s

  96. Snowman says:

    For the record I don’t think I’d put the odds Klefbom is moved at greater than 30%. I think its more likely they move Benning and ask Sekera to waive.

    Sekera can say no. And I like Benning a lot so that doesn’t seem like a good play.

    The point is Chia shouldn’t have given Russell that kind of contract. It was stupid to include the NMC.

  97. Chachi says:

    GMB3: God damn, it is so irritating when someone with such a half baked opinion feels so entitled they can drop the “let’s move on” like they have any right to dictate the discussion on this board.

    You do realize that the most difficult decisions will come this summer right? Because of Lucic and Russell we will have to move on from one (or more) of RNH and Maroon. Those are two far superior players.

    It also throws a wrinkle in the future of Benning or Nurse with this team. This is clear as day. It’s a relevant issue with the future of this team with far-reaching implications.

    Temper temper.

  98. leadfarmer says:

    Pouzar: They can be moved, they just have to agree.

    You just can’t give out NMC NTC to complimentary players. Sekera is forgivable at least cause he is a very good # 3. But you just can’t spend over 20 mil on 2 forwards in the same summer you give your depth defenseman a NMC. That is just poor planning and I don’t mind Russell but we probably have to give up a better player cause we have to keep him. Chia better have a plan for some of these problems he created

  99. who says:

    I haven’t done the math but if we bridge Nurse and Benning for 2 years next summer can we not run the same dcore.
    I would prefer to lock Nurse in long term at 4 mil but don’t know if that is possible or if he would accept.
    Either way, after Macdavid and Drai, the key forwards to keep,in order of importance, are Nuge, Strome, Maroon, Letestu. If keeping our defense together means we can only keep Nuge then so be it.
    I would prefer to keep Maroon over Strome but that decision has been made for us by the Lucic contract. I believe Maroon is the better, cheaper player but we can’t afford, and don’t need, them both.
    I can live with the Russell contract, tradeable after next season as well as Sekeras, but that Lucic deal is looking like as big a blunder as the Reinhart deal.

  100. Bling says:

    GMB3: I thought Stromes first period was his best as an Oiler. He was flying, all over the ice. From my eye, he looks better when he’s the player trying to drive play for his line.

    I have been extremely impressed with Strome’s passing and vision. Good landing spot for Puljujarvi if/when he arrives.

  101. Woodguy v2.0 says:

    Scungilli Slushy: I enjoy your data posts. They aren’t too long because they are all content. Not many post that type of thing now and few would have your grasp on how the metrics work and what their shortcomings are, even if you aren’t a PHD statistician.

    Just stop being a dink to me when you disagree with what I write

    Thank you.

    Also,

    I reverse the right to use the word “Bullshit” when I disagree and I’ve had > 2 whiskey.

    🙂

  102. Bling says:

    Snowman,

    Klef has had a bad 10 game stretch on the first pairing, but was a legit #1D last year. Growing pains is all.

    Nurse has had a good 10 game stretch, mostly on the second pairing/third pairing. He will have his growing pains as well.

    No reason to trade either of them.

  103. Woodguy v2.0 says:

    Georges,

    Its my understanding that the r2 is the % of the subject data that is described/predicted/correlated with the variable data. In this case the subject data is the future goal share and the variable data is the current SAF.

    Also,

    Is English your first language? I honestly thought it wasn’t. If I’m wrong then I’d like to know.

  104. Pouzar says:

    Snowman:
    Pouzar,

    How often do people waive nmc to leave the team with the best player in the world? I know its possible but would you do it if you were them?

    I mean Russell is from Alberta. Sekera maybe would want to go somewhere warm with his wife but I don’t know man…

    Waiving to leave Mcdavid just seems unlikely.

    There are lots of reasons a player may want to leave or allow a team to trade them. A NMC doesn’t necessarily mean “I want to stay here for the life of my contract”. It’s just allows them to be in control of “where” they go. Let’s not get all excited about any possibility that Klef will some how be the odd man out because of a couple players with a NMC. The scary thing about Russell is the dollar value of that contract b/c if he doesn’t have a good year this year the NMC is “mute”. <– My boss says this all the time…I don't have the heart.

  105. Scungilli Slushy says:

    Snowman:
    Pouzar,

    How often do people waive nmc to leave the team with the best player in the world? I know its possible but would you do it if you were them?

    I mean Russell is from Alberta. Sekera maybe would want to go somewhere warm with his wife but I don’t know man…

    Waiving to leave Mcdavid just seems unlikely.

    On the other hand it is embarrassing to sign a contract as a top minutes player and end up getting pushed to the third pairing because others are better. I could see Russell waiving one year of NMC in the summer because circumstances changed, and IIRC his contract is structured to be buyout proof. He’ll get his money.

    Who would want to be the guy in the room under performing and refusing to move, screwing the roster up? The bigger question is does Chiarelli have the heart to do it? He does have a history of moving on from mistakes.

  106. Pouzar says:

    Scungilli Slushy: He’ll get his money.

    This.

  107. Scungilli Slushy says:

    Woodguy v2.0: Thank you.

    Also,

    I reverse the right to use the word “Bullshit” when I disagree and I’ve had > 2 whiskey.

    If you ‘reverse’ that right I’ll stop being histrionic when into my second flat of Wildcat.

  108. Bling says:

    Bridging Nurse and Benning is the play, IMO.

    Neither guy will get significant PP minutes once Sekera is back, and that will bring down what they’ll be able to command.

    What is the best case scenario for Nurse? Probably that he becomes someone like Vlasic. Well, his cap hit is 4.25 and he is one of the best at what he does.

    That Russell contract is looking dumber by the day, but it shouldn’t cost the team any core players.

  109. Snowman says:

    Bling:
    Snowman,

    Klef has had a bad 10 game stretch on the first pairing, but was a legit #1D last year. Growing pains is all.

    Nurse has had a good 10 game stretch, mostly on the second pairing/third pairing. He will have his growing pains as well.

    No reason to trade either of them.

    How are you going to pay them all?

  110. Crazy Pedestrian says:

    Pouzar:
    F^*k

    Edmonton Oilers‏Verified account @EdmontonOilers11m11 minutes ago
    More
    Coach McLellan adds Slepyshev missed #Oilers practice today after getting injured late in the game last night. “Doubtful” for tomorrow.

    FFS!!! Can he not catch a break?! Before, he would play awesome, then get dropped down the depth chart for his troubles… Now he Plays awesome, gets injured…
    So now what?

  111. slopitch says:

    Last week was the first week was my first time not reading Lowetide regularly since forever – maybe 2007. Loses are tolerable when you think the team is bad. But when you think they are good and they seem to just lose and look fragile, its hard to take. Finally reading this morning and its good to be back. I just needed a win to calm my soul.

    LA is 10-2 with a +18 gd. So much for getting Doughty.

    Time for some wins. I have tickets vs Detroit tomorrow. Go Oilers! Any updates on JP? Pls send Yamo down already oilers.

  112. Jethro Tull says:

    I have it on good authority that the Duchene trade fell through because Diamond Joe couldn’t get the rights to Omark.

  113. meanashell11 says:

    Scungilli Slushy: On the other hand it is embarrassing to sign a contract as a top minutes player and end up getting pushed to the third pairing because others are better. I could see Russell waiving one year of NMC in the summer because circumstances changed, and IIRC his contract is structured to be buyout proof. He’ll get his money.

    Who would want to be the guy in the room under performing and refusing to move, screwing the roster up? The bigger question is does Chiarelli have the heart to do it? He does have a history of moving on from mistakes.

    Compliance buyout proof?

  114. OriginalPouzar says:

    Compliance buyouts were a negotiated concept of the last lockout – there is no certainty that any future work stoppage will include compliance buyouts as part of the package and, if so, what the parameters might be.

  115. Bag of Pucks says:

    Giving very strong consideration to changing my username to ‘Sup Selena?’

  116. haters says:

    Seasons rarely happen in straight lines. Having said that, this almost last in the league PDO has made people say some pretty silly stuff.

    In regards to Russels Ice time
    I think Todd is learning from last year in regards to the diminutive defenseman.
    Last year he would play great for stretches of 2-4 weeks and then seem to fall off in play for anywhere between 1-3 weeks. He plays hurt and is to stubborn to properly inform the coaches to his condition.
    I think Todd has recognized the mans tendency’s from last year and cut his time accordingly.
    Just a theory. I might be completely off but it seems to make sense .

    We all have our favorite players and sometimes we fight like crazy defending them.
    It’s also natural to not like everything someone says when it comes from a disrespectful place.

    Sometimes you’d swear people want the team to fail to support their own narrative of how right they were and how wrong and terrible Chiarelli is and was.

    I’m here supporting my team regardless of how good or bad the PDO is
    I’d encourage everyone else to do the same
    It’s better cheering for the whole team instead of your 10 favorite players

  117. Woodguy v2.0 says:

    Scungilli Slushy: If you ‘reverse’ that right I’ll stop being histrionic when into my second flat of Wildcat.

    Bloody phone

  118. Bling says:

    Snowman: How are you going to pay them all?

    We will have 14.2 million in cap space next season (assuming the cap does not change). Hardly in cap hell (yet).

    RFAs of note:

    1) Benning
    2) Nurse
    3) Strome
    4) Slepyshev
    5) Caggiula

    UFAs of note:

    1) Maroon
    2) Letestu

    I would sign Nurse/Benning to 1 or 2 year contracts. 2.5 each? That still gives you 9 million to work with.

  119. Scungilli Slushy says:

    meanashell11: Compliance buyout proof?

    In the sense of how it’s structured. I looked at Capfriendly, he has signing bonuses of 2M and 1M. I think it was paid when he signed, so this year he’s collected 3M signing bonuses and 3M salary, so more than a third of his contract in the first year.

    The last year of his contract only has 1.5M of salary (only!). Given he’s NHL calibre still the risk is more on the second half of the deal, after year 2 he has received 10.5M of his 16M deal. I should have said buyout insulated.

    He can be bought out, they set it up so he’s more likely to collect more of the deal if things go south. Worse than they have. It wouldn’t be smart for the Oilers to buy him out. Given his cost is only salary (no picks etc), it would be better to get him to waive his NMC (such as telling him he’ll be 7-8 D and not play much) and give him away.

  120. flyfish1168 says:

    Bling: We will have 14.2 million in cap space next season (assuming the cap does not change). Hardly in cap hell (yet).

    RFAs of note:

    1) Benning
    2) Nurse
    3) Strome
    4) Slepyshev
    5) Caggiula

    UFAs of note:

    1) Maroon
    2) Letestu

    I would sign Nurse/Benning to 1 or 2 year contracts. 2.5 each? That still gives you 9 million to work with.

    Getting Nurse to sign for 2.5 would be an absolute steal. I can’t see that happening. Rasmus Ristolainen was drafted just behind Nurse. Rasmus is a RHD and he does appear to have more offensive part to his game signed for 5.4 Darnell we can hope will take a discount. I’m not saying he will ask for more or close. But definitely more than 2.5 JMHO

  121. Georges says:

    Woodguy v2.0:
    Georges,

    Its my understanding that the r2 is the % of the subject data that is described/predicted/correlated with the variable data.In this case the subject data is the future goal share and the variable data is the current SAF.

    Also,

    Is English your first language?I honestly thought it wasn’t.If I’m wrong then I’d like to know.

    OK, forget it. Let’s not talk stats. You don’t seem comfortable and it’s a hockey blog after all. For my part, I honestly thought that because you used numbers so much that you had a background or interest in stats. My mistake. You don’t seem to pick up or respond to the stats part of the things I say. I’ll just stay in my lane. I don’t want to get between a man and his hobby.

  122. Mr. D. says:

    NO WAY Nurse and Benning are worth the same.
    Nurse 3yr x 4 mill min
    Benning 2yrx 1.5

    Bling: We will have 14.2 million in cap space next season (assuming the cap does not change). Hardly in cap hell (yet).

    RFAs of note:

    1) Benning
    2) Nurse
    3) Strome
    4) Slepyshev
    5) Caggiula

    UFAs of note:

    1) Maroon
    2) Letestu

    I would sign Nurse/Benning to 1 or 2 year contracts. 2.5 each? That still gives you 9 million to work with.

  123. Georges says:

    Lowetide: Yeah, I’d agree with his getting passed by Nurse. It’s possible, and this is interesting, the THIRD PAIR will be Sekera-Russell when Rej returns in December.

    The coach is a gambler. Nurse’s on-ice sv% so far is 95.3. If he plays him 21+ minutes a night, we’ll know what we have in the player soon enough.

  124. leadfarmer says:

    OriginalPouzar:
    Compliance buyouts were a negotiated concept of the last lockout – there is no certainty that any future work stoppage will include compliance buyouts as part of the package and, if so, what the parameters might be.

    Except that GMs can’t stop themselves from giving out contracts and NMC to players who don’t deserve them. The compliance buyout is a necessary thing to keep some of these teams competitive and since we can pretty much guarantee a lockout in 3-5 seasons I can pretty much guarantee a compliance buyout which will be used by our GM

  125. russ99 says:

    Snowman: I think there’s a good chance Woodguy is right here.

    Lets just look at this logically and do the “math”.

    You have a top 6 of Larsson, Sekera, Russell, Benning, Nurse and Klefbom.

    You literally can’t move Sekera or Russell (NMC) so they’re out.

    You can’t move Larsson because Taylor Hall. People would riot.

    You can’t move Benning because I believe the organization (rightfully) believes in lefty-righty d pairs and he’s good.

    So that leaves Nurse and Oscar. You can’t afford to keep everyone and re-up Nurse and Benning. Nurse is coming along. The organization is pushing the Nurse narrative. He’s playing top pair. He’s playing well (for 11 games).

    Oscar is struggling (bad reads, offense struggling). I’ve already heard a couple times about how Larsson helped prop up Oscar on the broadcasts and Bob has made similar comments on his show.

    There’s good D bubbling under, Oscar is struggling, Nurse is ready, Russell helps stabilize the back end and he can play both sides with Sekera, you can’t have a 4M third pair dman, blah blah blah…

    See ya later Oscar.

    I think there’s a very real possibility this happens. Especially if Nurse keeps playing well. Especially if Oscar is inconsistent this year. Chia created this problem with Russells contract.

    There’s a non zero chance Klefbom gets moved. And honestly even if you think it’s 10% chance that’s 10% too high.

    And even if the org decides its Benning who has to go is that really any better? Chia really messed up with the Russell contract regardless of what you think of Russell’s ability.

    Oscar has an extremely team-friendly contract the next 5 years. They’d be fools to move him.

    We all know what’s getting moved, RFAs not in team’s plans and a certain $6M center. $6M can fix a lot of problems…

  126. russ99 says:

    leadfarmer: Except that GMs can’t stop themselves from giving out contracts and NMC to players who don’t deserve them.The compliance buyout is a necessary thing to keep some of these teams competitive and since we can pretty much guarantee a lockout in 3-5 seasons I can pretty much guarantee a compliance buyout which will be used by our GM

    You do know how free agency works. It’s not about how deserving a player is 1-2 years into a deal, it’s to outbid competitors for that players’ services, both of which players you’re referring to had multiple interested teams.

  127. GMB3 says:

    russ99: Oscar has an extremely team-friendly contract the next 5 years. They’d be fools to move him.

    We all know what’s getting moved, RFAs not in team’s plans anda certain $6M center. $6M can fix a lot of problems…

    You honestly think we are a better team with Russell than with RNH?

  128. flyfish1168 says:

    russ99: You do know how free agency works. It’s not about how deserving a player is 1-2 years into a deal, it’sto outbid competitors for that players’ services, both of which players you’re referring to had multiple interested teams.

    I do believe player and player agent always use that line ” Multiple teams interested and we picked you”. It would be a disservice if they don’t use this to negotiate. Russell had a good 1 year with the Oilers. It was a small bargain that he sign for the 2016-17 season. But 4 x 4 is a sign a G.M. couldn’t help himself and didn’t learn from his ways during his days as a bruin. JMHO

  129. Cassandra says:

    Nurse playing well for this team is very good, almost a necessity I would say.

    Nurse playing well for this team is a bad thing for his next contract, which if our past experience is any indicator, is going to cost more than you think. $4M is the floor. Prepare yourself for something worse.

    The better Nurse plays, the more likely a Klefbom trade becomes.

    This team really needs to win this year.

    Plus, Hall is a monster. Nice for him to be finally appreciated, if only for one day, by Oiler fans who, by and large, didn’t appreciate him at all when he was here.

  130. leadfarmer says:

    russ99: You do know how free agency works. It’s not about how deserving a player is 1-2 years into a deal, it’sto outbid competitors for that players’ services, both of which players you’re referring to had multiple interested teams.

    You know how salary cap works? You dont get to sign every free agent that you may want to

    I don’t even have a problem with the salary he got. Just never never give a complementary player a NMC or NTC. And even though he may have had multiple interested parties he really wanted to stay in Alberta

  131. flyfish1168 says:

    Cassandra:
    Nurse playing well for this team is very good, almost a necessity I would say.

    Nurse playing well for this team is a bad thing for his next contract, which if our past experience is any indicator, is going to cost more than you think.$4M is the floor.Prepare yourself for something worse.

    The better Nurse plays, the more likely a Klefbom trade becomes.

    This team really needs to win this year.

    Plus, Hall is a monster.Nice for him to be finally appreciated, if only for one day, by Oiler fans who, by and large, didn’t appreciate him at all when he was here.

    JMHO But I think Sekera would get traded 1st.

  132. Dustylegnd says:

    Kinger_Oil.redux:
    Woodguy v2.0,

    – Listen WG: I bet if we met up we’d be fast friends.A blog is a hard place to communicate, with a tone etc.I enjoy reading your stuff.To the extent that you are less definitive and argumentative you would be the holy grail of posters IMO.

    – As it is keep up the good work, try not to take things so personal, be humble and kind, respond to others how you’d like to be responded to and we’d be all good

    I have been reading the Book Wonder with my 9 old daughter, the Protagonist who is attending a school for the 1st time (previously being home schooled), learns about Precepts in english class, the 1st Precept he learns is:

    When you have a choice between being Kind or being Right…..choose Kind,

    Carry on then

  133. hunter1909 says:

    Dustylegnd: When you have a choice between being Kind or being Right…..choose Kind,

    I’m sure this goes down great at recess.

    Typical parent: Projecting their fantasy worldview onto innocent people(children).

  134. Dustylegnd says:

    hunter1909,

    I assume this blog is most often frequented by adults?

    trust me amigo I can be a world class prick, something I am not proud of

    after 20 years trading commodities and working with cock sure MBA’s and PHD’s from Berkley, IIT, MIT, Harvard and Princeton I also know this to be true

    Tails are Fat

    Hubris Kills

  135. Lewis Grant says:

    There is always a chance to buy out these contracts with little penalty. That is what will happen to Russell.

    If we get one compliance buyout I use it on Lucic, stat!

    Russell is overpaid but will have at least some value throughout his whole contract. Worst case scenario – the team can always use a depth defenseman in the playoffs (or can trade him to a team that can use one.)

    On the other hand, worst case scenario for Lucic is that he’s at replacement level within two years, but still signed for another $24M over the final four years of his deal. (Russell’s total contract is worth $16M.)

  136. Chachi says:

    Cassandra:
    Nice for him to be finally appreciated, if only for one day, by Oiler fans who, by and large, didn’t appreciate him at all when he was here.

    Bullshit. Prove that he wasn’t appreciated by a majority of fans. I’ll wait.

  137. Dee Dee says:

    Cassandra: CASSANDRA says:
    November 4, 2017 at 4:11 pm
    Nurse playing well for this team is very good, almost a necessity I would say.
    Nurse playing well for this team is a bad thing for his next contract, which if our past experience is any indicator, is going to cost more than you think. $4M is the floor. Prepare yourself for something worse.
    The better Nurse plays, the more likely a Klefbom trade becomes.
    This team really needs to win this year.
    Plus, Hall is a monster. Nice for him to be finally appreciated, if only for one day, by Oiler fans who, by and large, didn’t appreciate him at all when he was here.

    I miss Taylor Hall from periods 1 and 2. I don’t miss the 3rd period Taylor Hall.

    The thing is you don’t just get the first one, you get both in a package deal.

    He sort of cancels himself out if that makes any sense.

  138. Woodguy v2.0 says:

    Chachi: Bullshit. Prove that he wasn’t appreciated by a majority of fans. I’ll wait.

    *links to twitter the day of the trade*

    That enough?

  139. Woodguy v2.0 says:

    Georges: OK, forget it. Let’s not talk stats. You don’t seem comfortable and it’s a hockey blog after all. For my part, I honestly thought that because you used numbers so much that you had a background or interest in stats. My mistake. You don’t seem to pick up or respond to the stats part of the things I say. I’ll just stay in my lane. I don’t want to get between a man and his hobby.

    That’s probably best.

    Good luck with the English lessons!

  140. Johnny Eyetest says:

    Woodguy v2.0,

    I knew ARZ was going to be bad, but the Oilers are making our bet interesting.

  141. Chachi says:

    Woodguy v2.0: *links to twitter the day of the trade*

    That enough?

    Not even close

  142. Woodguy v2.0 says:

    Johnny Eyetest:
    Woodguy v2.0,

    I knew ARZ was going to be bad, but the Oilers are making our bet interesting.

    20pts right or is it 15?

    If so, I like your chances.

  143. Woodguy v2.0 says:

    Chachi: Not even close

    *links to 546,323,611 blog comments where it’s decided that Hall is the problem*

    How about now?

  144. Chachi says:

    Woodguy v2.0: *links to 546,323,611 blog comments where it’s decided that Hall is the problem*

    How about now?

    LOL, funny hyperbole, but how many posters would that actually consist of? Maybe 20?
    I know its fun for some people to denigrate a whole fan base because a small, but vocal minority of them have an uninformed opinion. If you get your jollies mocking those people good for you, but extrapolating their ignorance to all Oilers fans so you can present yourself as some kind of intellectual is just sad.

  145. Woodguy v2.0 says:

    Chachi: LOL, funny hyperbole, but how many posters would that actually consist of? Maybe 20?
    I know its fun for some people to denigrate a whole fan base because a small, but vocal minority of them have an uninformed opinion. If you get your jollies mocking those people good for you, but extrapolating their ignorance to all Oilers fans so you can present yourself as some kind of intellectual is just sad.

    I have to assume you don’t consume as much Oiler content as I do then.

    Whether is oilfans, oilernation, hfboards, twitter or wherever, he was demonized everywhere.

    LT’s little piece of respite is the exception, not the rule.

  146. Chachi says:

    Woodguy v2.0: I have to assume you don’t consume as much Oiler content as I do then.

    Whether is oilfans, oilernation, hfboards, twitter or wherever, he was demonized everywhere.

    LT’s little piece of respite is the exception, not the rule.

    You know what they say about assuming things…

  147. godot10 says:

    Dustylegnd

    When you have a choice between being Kind or being Right…..choose Kind,

    This is a false choice. An obvious one.

  148. godot10 says:

    Dustylegnd:

    When you have a choice between being Kind or being Right…..choose Kind,

    It is also a pretty lousy precept to teach in your daughter, IMHO. Women have been “kind” to men throughout history. Where has it gotten them.

  149. deardylan says:

    Change my physiology-> changes my psychology-> changes my postology!

    Yeah when Oilers lose badly, I often feel bad. And I feel even worse if I haven’t worked on my own game, my own mind, and especially my own body!

    That is not the right time for me to write on Lowetide, to post or respond to others.

    I am not sure if you saw the UFC fight today that Georges St-Pierre won. His quote reminds me how to keep my posts kind, good and still add value to the discussion.

    If you look good, you feel good, and if you feel good, you do good.
    — Georges St-Pierre

    It starts with my own exercise, my own training and my own inner game. When I look good in the mirror, in my own skin…even Oilers losing can’t phase me and I can write posts with kindness and goodness!

    Change my physiology-> changes my psychology-> changes my postology!

  150. Dustylegnd says:

    godot10: It is also a pretty lousy precept to teach in your daughter, IMHO.Women have been “kind” to men throughout history.Where has it gotten them.

    When you are right it is self evident, therefore it is also easy to be kind when responding to those who are incapable of seeing your correctness.

    Women being kind to men, and where has it got them? well I look and very recently see Women Premiers In BC, Alberta x 2, and Ontario, (the 3 wealthiest and most influential provinces save Quebec) Canada is a progressive country whether you realize it or not, Kind intelligent hard working women will always do very well in life and trust me my daughter will thrive in this world

    I see an ever increasing vitriol from certain posters on this board with the very real “need to be right” and if certain others have the audacity to disagree, both barrels are unloaded…..I will say it again

    Hubris Kills and….. after the Pride comes the Fall …..it is not much to ask that people remain kind, you can still be intelligent and insightful and RIGHT all at the same time

    I worked for a man that is currently worth 8 billion dollars, and he is an empty human being….. but you know what? He is ALWAYS RIGHT

  151. Johnny Eyetest says:

    Woodguy v2.0: Woodguy v2.0,
    I knew ARZ was going to be bad, but the Oilers are making our bet interesting.
      (Quote)  (Reply)

    20

  152. godot10 says:

    Dustylegnd: When you are right it is self evident, therefore it is also easy to be kind when responding to those who are incapable of seeing your correctness.

    As I said it is a false choice.

    The operative principle should be “Do the right thing”. Sometimes that means being kind. Sometimes it doesn’t. Sometimes it means not be ashamed to be right if you are actually right. And sometimes it means tolerating the ignorance of others (because it is the right thing to do at the time).

    One should not be perpetually kind in the face of lies, injustices, and things that are wrong.

    Ultimately one has to stand for truth. And the forces of truth are almost always in the minority.

  153. Dustylegnd says:

    godot10,

    You are missing the point, but thats fine….you can propagate the truth without being an arrogant asshole, or condescending or pompous,it is really quite easy to do, the vast majority of the people on this blog clearly are brighter than average and can see the truth very easily

    I have worked with some of the brightest minds in the world like I said Harvard, Yale, Princeton, IIT, Berkley etc, Phd’s in applied mathematics, Phd’s in physics and Economics……of all the people I have met the single brightest person has a Phd in physics from Berkley, he also built a personal fortune of over 1 b while in someone else’s employment, and is a pioneer of high frequency trading…..he is also incredibly humble patient and kind, the NEED TO BE RIGHT is not part of his life

    Lets remember this is a blog built around a professional hockey team, the impact on the world really is not relevant, I rarely see lies, injustices or many things that are patently wrong on this blog, people are entitled to their opinions, that I do know

  154. godot10 says:

    Dustylegnd:
    godot10,

    You are missingthe point, but thats fine….you can propagate the truth without being an arrogant asshole, or condescending or pompous,it is really quite easy to do, the vast majority of the people on this blog clearly are brighter than average and can see the truth very easily

    I have worked with some of the brightest minds in the world like I said Harvard, Yale, Princeton, IIT, Berkley etc, Phd’s in applied mathematics, Phd’s in physics and Economics……of all the people I have met the single brightest person has a Phd in physics from Berkley, he also built a personal fortune of over 1 b while in someone else’s employment, and is a pioneer of high frequency trading…..he is also incredibly humble patient and kind, the NEED TO BE RIGHT is not part of his life

    Lets remember this is a blog built around a professional hockey team, the impact on the world really is not relevant, I rarely see lies, injustices or many things that are patently wrong on this blog, people are entitled to their opinions, that I do know

    I am not against kindness. But it is a dumb commandment to “be kind”, mainly because it is easy to identify situations where one should NOT be kind. One can be kind a lot of the time, even most of the time, but one is kind not because of “kindness” itself is the value., but be kind if it is the right thing to do in that situation.

    Do the right thing.

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