Crawling from the Wreckage

Last night the Edmonton Oilers won their second game in a row for the first time all season. The Nuge line hung two goals in regulation and then the brilliance of McDavid to Draisaitl put it all away for the second straight OT winner. The climb to respectability is closer today, many miles to go.

THE ATHLETIC

The special Lowetide offer is here. Among the items on the menu today are:

With Anton Slepyshev and Drake Caggiula hurting, suspect we’ll see Jesse Puljujarvi (or Ty Rattie) called up over the next 24 hours, but Jon’s post really does a nice job of pointing out the wisdom of bringing the big Finn along at pace. Bruce McCurdy mentioned on the Lowdown yesterday there is some danger here, once he is recalled it would be very difficult to send JP back a third time. You can lose players, BM mentioned Magnus Paajarvi as a fairly recent example of what can go wrong.

PIKES PEAK, YEAR OVER YEAR

  • Oilers in November 2015: 2-3-0, goal differential -3
  • Oilers in November 2016: 2-2-1, goal differential -3
  • Oilers in November 2017: 3-2-0, goal differential 0

The Oilers are winning games they probably haven’t earned now, the shot differential is under water and they’re winning. When they were losing, the possession numbers shone like a diamond. What a crazy damned season! The possession metrics (39 percent in the Islanders game, 48 percent last night) suggest the team is winning games they should be losing, but I’ll call it regression and consider it good fortune.

AFTER 15, YEAR OVER YEAR

  • Oilers 15-16: 5-10-0, goal differential -8
  • Oilers 16-17: 9-5-1, goal differential +6
  • Oilers 17-18: 6-8-1, goal differential -11

There can be no claim to reaching any plateau worthy of a Stanley Cup contender, but credit can be given for winning a couple of tough road games at a point when the entire season was hanging by a few threads. Miles to  go until morning, but the battle has been joined! Cam Talbot is such an important part of this team’s success.

WHAT TO EXPECT FROM NOVEMBER

  • At home to: Pittsburgh, New Jersey, Detroit (Expected: 2-1-0) (Actual 1-2-0)
  • On the road to: NYI, New Jersey, NYR, Washington (Expected: 1-2-1) (Actual: 2-0-0)
  • At home to: Vegas, St. Louis (Expected 1-1-0) (Actual: 0-0-0)
  • On the road to: Dallas, St. Louis, Detroit, Buffalo, Boston (Expected 2-2-1) (Actual 0-0-0)
  • At home to: Arizona, Toronto (Expected 1-1-0) (Actual 0-0-0)
  • Overall expected result: 7-7-2, 16 points in 16 games 
  • Current results: 3-2-0, six points in five games

I projected this team to be 3-3-1 coming back from the road trip, Oilers have an excellent chance now of being farther along by the time the group returns from Manhattan. Edmonton is ahead of the pace I set for them at the beginning of the month.

DEFENSE, LAST NIGHT

  • Klefbom-Benning were 17-12 together and had 17 OZ faceoffs compared to 5-6 (neu-def) elsewhere. Were 7-4 against Hall-Hischier-Palmieri in 5:22. Were 3-4 in 6:43 with McDavid. Klefbom had a 10-bell chance and I think he is settling down now. Benning had some chaos, this season has featured inconsistency.
  • Nurse-Larsson went 12-12 together and 7-8-1 zone starts (O-N-D). Went 4-6 in 6:10 against Hall-Hischier-Palmieri. I very much liked the pairing, very physical and (along with Klefbom-Benning) played a lot.
  • Russell-Gryba went 6-9 together and 4-3-6 zone starts. Russell had a fabulous OT sequence where he secured the puck and fed 97 for the brilliant winner.
  • Talbot stopped 32 of 34, .942. He is now up to .912 for the season.

FORWARDS

  • Maroon-McDavid-Draisaitl went 15-7 on the night, were 8-3 against Gibbons-Coleman-Noesen in 8:57. Were 3-3 against the Hall line in 2:36 (McDavid line with 2-1 edge in HDSC). McDavid to Draisaitl in overtime was epic, no way to defend that kind of speed and skill.
  • Lucic-Nuge-Slepyshev/Kassian went 9-12 but scored both regulation goals. Nuge was fantastic, maybe his best game in a year to my eye. Could have cashed in overtime. Lucic had a couple of points, had a couple of takeaways and played well. Slepyshev scored a fabulous goal, frustrating as hell he’s hurt again.
  • Jokinen-Strome-Pakarinen went 9-8 together, this isn’t a tremendous line but they didn’t get scored on. Edmonton needs to have more talent on their third line. It’s a thing.
  • Malone-Letestu-Kassian went 4-1 together, played just three minutes before the Slepyshev injury.
  • NHL.com and NaturalStatTrick.

ANTON SLEPYSHEV

Well damn Sam anyway. Great snipe and he’s hurt again. Jesus, Mary & Joseph can’t this guy catch a break? Get well soon, young man, the job awaits.

NUGE AND LUCIC

That second line is getting some things done at 5×5, here are the scoring totals 5×5/60 among forwards for this year:

  1. Leon Draisaitl 3.21
  2. Connor McDavid 2.53
  3. Milan Lucic 2.50
  4. Ryan Nugent-Hopkins 2.44
  5. Patrick Maroon 2.04
  6. Ryan Strome 1.34
  7. Anton Slepyshev 1.14
  8. Zack Kassian 0.78
  9. Drake Caggiula 0.60
  10. Kailer Yamamoto 0.52

I’ll give full credit to Milan Lucic, his 5×5 scoring is back and that’s a good thing. Don’t expect 2.50/60 for the season, but a strong turn north from last season’s disappointment seems likely. Now, about those errant passes. As for Nuge, music! What a grand beginning to the season, and he’s healthy plus playing that gorgeous 200-foot game. Two lines isn’t unicorns, but it’s shelter from the storm.

LOWDOWN WITH LOWETIDE

A fun Friday after a few with disappointment for Oilers fans, we get rolling at 10am on TSN1260. Scheduled to appear:

  • Steve Lansky, BigMouthSports. McDavid to Leon, are the Oilers back?
  • Matt Iwanyk, TSN1260. Eskimos vs. Blue Bombers and Oilers find their game.
  • Paul Almeida, SSE. Why can Edmonton win on the road but not at home?

10-1260 text, @Lowetide on twitter. See you on the radio.

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199 Responses to "Crawling from the Wreckage"

  1. Pouzar says:

    I’m with Young Willis. Play the long game with JP.
    Call up Rattie.
    Split up Connor/Drai 5 on 5 and spread the wealth.

  2. OriginalPouzar says:

    2 even strength goals from the 2nd line and a ROW – can’t ask for much more.

    I’ll take it and look forward to Saturday morning.

  3. OriginalPouzar says:

    Nuge made a couple of iffy plays earlier in the game but he was huge offensively in the 2nd half of the game an in OT.

    Lucic was a beast in the 2nd half of the game as well. He still made a number of bad passes at the bluelines and in the neutral zone that led to turnovers, however, his play away from the puck let to many positive plays – he was anticipating the play, skating to the right places and with a purpose.

    If Lucic can bring that game consistently, he will be just fine on that 2nd line with Nuge.

  4. OriginalPouzar says:

    I like what Strome is bringing lately, however, he is carrying around two offensive boat anchors in Jokinen and Pakarinan.

    I thought that line was fine in the 2nd half of the game as they were responsible and able to saw off the opposition, however, they are a black hole of offence.

    If Strome is flanked on a third line with Drake and Slep – I think that’s a very solid third line that can contribute offensively.

    Get healthy boys!

  5. supernova says:

    Haha that’s a lot of Pouzar in the comments

  6. OriginalPouzar says:

    Looking forward to the read at The Athletic on value contracts.

    The need for value contracts is one of the (many) reasons why a Nurse for Marner trade does not work for this team. The organization needs to be patiant and wait for Puljijarvi, Yamamoto and/or Benson to provide a value contract in the top 6 and produce in that role.

    Marner is going to require $6M plus in a year and its a contract we won’t be able to afford and that doesn’t’ even take in to account losing a guy like Nurse who is material to our defensive core.

  7. danny says:

    Just want to chime in on the discussion re the website.

    I think 1 post per day is all this blog needs.
    It keeps a central place for discussion, and it keeps LT’s corner of the web intact.

    The website itself is long overdue for an update, it needs to be mobile-first (responsive) by design and that’s something we can accomplish.

    Continuing on that, the front page can also integrate a community post area, which will allow people to submit/publish guest posts.

    And another handy feature would be to feature an image/excerpt to LT’s latest article from The Athletic.(it could also use LT’s referral signup link)

    I’m down for building this once again in WordPress. We should do a gofundme as a group to buy a years hosting at a decent host like siteground, and get away from Godaddy, because mighrating / testing a huge WP database like lowetide.ca will probably be a headache, and a good host / support would be integral.

  8. Lowetide says:

    danny:
    Just want to chime in on the discussion re the website.

    I think 1 post per day is all this blog needs.
    It keeps a central place for discussion, and it keeps LT’s corner of the web intact.

    The website itself is long overdue for an update, it needs to be mobile-first (responsive) by design and that’s something we can accomplish.

    Continuing on that, the front page can also integrate a community post area, which will allow people to submit/publish guest posts.

    And another handy feature would be to feature an image/excerpt to LT’s latest article from The Athletic.(it could also use LT’s referral signup link)

    I’m down for building this once again in WordPress. We should do a gofundme as a group to buy a years hosting at a decent host like siteground, and get away from Godaddy, because mighrating / testing a huge WP database like lowetide.ca will probably be a headache, and a good host / support would be integral.

    This is a fabulous idea!

  9. OriginalPouzar says:

    Pouzar:
    I’m with Young Willis. Play the long game with JP.
    Call up Rattie.
    Split up Connor/Drai 5 on 5 and spread the wealth.

    I’m on board as well, I’m just not sure if the AHL is actually the best place for Jesse’s development.

    Shit, he just lost his best offensive center and that was Brad Malone.

    I think its rare but I’m not discounting the fact that this might be a case where the AHL stunts Jesse’s offensive development.

  10. Pouzar says:

    OriginalPouzar:
    I like what Strome is bringing lately, however, he is carrying around two offensive boat anchors in Jokinen and Pakarinan.

    I thought that line was fine in the 2nd half of the game as they were responsible and able to saw off the opposition, however, they are a black hole of offence.

    If Strome is flanked on a third line with Drake and Slep – I think that’s a very solid third line that can contribute offensively.

    Get healthy boys!

    1 Maroon-McDavid-Slepy/Kass
    2 Lucic-Nuge-Drai
    3 Caggs-Strome-Slepy/Kass
    4 Don’t give a rats ass as they will only play 3 min 5 on 5 anyway.

  11. Clay says:

    So the verbal around Maroon re-signing – that talks were on but now it’s crickets – may have as much to do with RNH’s renaissance this fall as anything else.

    I think the assumption was that RNH would have to go this year for cap reasons. Maybe, if he’s showing how valuable he can be at both ends of the ice, Chia is now trying to find ways to fit him in next year. At a minimum it would mean Maroon would be unaffordable, and then at least one other thing would need to break. I’d bet he’d love a mulligan on the Russell deal right now.

  12. Pouzar says:

    Lowetide: This is a fabulous idea!

    I think 1 post a day is plenty as well. I would be very grateful if you continued posts just like today but totally understand if you didn’t.

    What I would hate to see is any kind of website upgrade. I love the way it is now. If there is anything I detest more about website redesigns is change for the sake of change. I’ve seen less than 10% of my favorite websites change for the better. I would kill for Yahoo Sports circa 2006 for example. 🙂

  13. Wolfpack says:

    That 3-on-3 OT… wow. You can’t take your eyes from the screen for a second. When teams are in the last couple of minutes of regulation tied with the Oilers, they must be thinking they are playing for a point. The Oilers’ skill really shines on the open ice, their puck possession and creativity is just too dangerous for other teams to stop. Love the 3-on-3, and frankly I don’t begrudge the smaller number of shoot-outs at all. In fact, I’d be fine with playing 3-on-3 until someone scores and getting rid of the shoot-out altogether.

  14. Pouzar says:

    OriginalPouzar: I’m on board as well, I’m just not sure if the AHL is actually the best place for Jesse’s development.

    Shit, he just lost his best offensive center and that was Brad Malone.

    I think its rare but I’m not discounting the fact that this might be a case where the AHL stunts Jesse’s offensive development.

    There is some truth to this. Oscar spoke to this when he was in the AHL ( i.e. lack of structure, poor positioning by players). I think JP needs to be down there b/c he needs to have the puck on his stick. I don’t think he needs to worry about being a 1 shot shooter down there. He needs to be the cog and the guy who facilitates offence. I think his shot totals are telling us that he is on the right path in this regard.

  15. OmJo says:

    danny,

    I second (well, third) this.

    I have nothing but good things to say about siteground. Great service and great customer support.

  16. OmJo says:

    Nuge and Lucic have had plenty of time to play together and develop some chemistry.

    They still have a revolving door on their right side, but at least they’re starting to mesh like a poor man’s Maroon-McDavid paring.

  17. OmJo says:

    Pouzar,

    I don’t think there’s anything to worry about regarding change of this blog.

    I’ll admit the changes to most websites recently haven’t been great. Idk what the hell is going on with Sportsnet or why when I click on an article only the bottom third of the window actually has words for 5-6 seconds.

    The difference is those websites don’t really take into consideration community feedback. This place does.

  18. Kinger_Oil.redux says:

    – Great post LT! (I thought I wans’t going to be able to post that)

    – I think a lot of people aren’t giving McL his due. I think he values RNH a lot. I think he knows that the way to force Chia to keep him is as the #2C, and keep McD and Drai together

    – If RNH had to be the #3 C he’d be getting the Pak/Joki linemates. Then he’s suck, and he’d b gone

    – So Strome, his play has been ok in that role, they sign him next year as the #3C in the $3MM range, they keep RNH, they don’t sign Maroon, they find/develop a few more wingers

    – That’s the play IMO, and I think McL is enabling RNH to flourish by giving him the best wingers, non Drai division. By playing Kailer only with McD, he exposed this to Chia, and fed RNH

    – McD-Drai, RNH-Lucic is a really really good foundation, and Strome is growing as #3C

    – If you have to trade elite 60-point RNH after next season, because you you need to give Drai more time as #2C, you get a king’s ransom for RNH.

    – Or some of pool/kailer/benson/sleppy/cags/cheap new Maroon are enough to have McD/Drai/RNH as C’s with talent cheap wingers.

    – That’s why you don’t panic and bring in other vet wingers now: which some advocate. It’s about having multiple kicks at the can, not winning at all cost this year, because McD’s contract hasn’t kicked in

  19. dustrock says:

    Love the Rejuvenated Nuge.

    I might have to calm down about Lucic if he keeps it up.

    Also wonder if Letestu hasn’t fallen off a cliff, perhaps he’s clinging to that one branch that’s always near the top of the cliff.

  20. Pouzar says:

    OmJo:
    Pouzar,

    I don’t think there’s anything to worry about regarding change of this blog.

    I’ll admit the changes to most websites recently haven’t been great. Idk what the hell is going on with Sportsnet or why when I click on an article only the bottom third of the window actually has words for 5-6 seconds.

    The difference is those websites don’t really take into consideration community feedback. This place does.

    No worries…I am just a curmudgeonous bastard!

  21. SVR says:

    Good morning LT. Congratulations on the new gig. You deserve all the success. I understand he new format here during the season, but what about the summer? Will you still be able to do the year in review for each player? And how about the re series? And summer and winter prospects? I love these extra, especially in the off season. Would hate to see them go

  22. OriginalPouzar says:

    Clay:
    So the verbal around Maroon re-signing – that talks were on but now it’s crickets – may have as much to do with RNH’s renaissance this fall as anything else.

    I think the assumption was that RNH would have to go this year for cap reasons.Maybe, if he’s showing how valuable he can be at both ends of the ice, Chia is now trying to find ways to fit him in next year.At a minimum it would mean Maroon would be unaffordable, and then at least one other thing would need to break.I’d bet he’d love a mulligan on the Russell deal right now.

    The verbal from the fanbase, the blogging community, the MSM, etc. was that Nuge would likely have to go for cap room – the organization never implied the same. In fact, Chia was express that we wants to keep Nuge and will be looking for ways to keep him – of course, always take the GM’s words with a grain of salt.

    We have three potential internal graduates for top 6 wingers over the next 18 months that could provide value contracts and production – Benson, Puljijarvi and Yamamoto.

    We currently have two slots in the top 6 (including Maroon’s current slot) – hopefully two of these young players can develop enough to provide material value and production in the top 6.

    In my mind, Nuge over Maroon is a no-brainer as a player comparison and even when taking in to account contract status ($6M vs. somewhere around $4M).

    The only hesitation in keeping Maroon over Nuge is that a Nuge trade provides assets in return, whereas, keeping Nuge over Maroon likely includes letting Maroon walk for nothing unless we are out of contention near the deadline and can sell Maroon for futures.

  23. stush18 says:

    OmJo:
    Nuge and Lucic have had plenty of time to play together and develop some chemistry.

    They still have a revolving door on their right side, but at least they’re starting to mesh like a poor man’s Maroon-McDavid paring.

    Ya they’ve impressed me lately.

    At the start of the year I would be cringing thinking of lucic and nuge together.

    They are starting to look better. Although I’m not sure if that’s just nuge playing so dominantly and just carrying the line. Suspect a bit of both.

    Also, for the lucic haters, he’s producing at 5v5 again. Kinda like he always has. Kinda like the game hadn’t passed him by. Just sayin.

  24. OriginalPouzar says:

    Kinger_Oil.redux:
    – Great post LT!(I thought I wans’t going to be able to post that)

    – I think a lot of people aren’t giving McL his due.I think he values RNH a lot.I think he knows that the way to force Chia to keep him is as the #2C, and keep McD and Drai together

    – If RNH had to be the #3 C he’d be getting the Pak/Joki linemates.Then he’s suck, and he’d b gone

    – So Strome, his play has been ok in that role, they sign him next year as the #3C in the $3MM range, they keep RNH, they don’t sign Maroon, they find/develop a few more wingers

    – That’s the play IMO, and I think McL is enabling RNH to flourish by giving him the best wingers, non Drai division.By playing Kailer only with McD, he exposed this to Chia, and fed RNH

    – McD-Drai, RNH-Lucic is a really really good foundation, and Strome is growing as #3C

    Yes, I agree with most of this post – I can’t say I’m on board with McLellan deploying his bench in a manner that sends a message to Chia or will leave to certain transactions/non-transactions in the summer but I’m on board with him really valuing Nuge and the process or the summer.

    Strome is a decent hockey player and I think he’d be a fine 3C with actual 3rd line wingers – something like Drake and Anton as opposed to Jussi and Iiro.

    Presumably he’ll sign a deal at or below $3M (unless he gets better linemates and his offence spikes) and I am fine letting Maroon walk. It will suck to let that asset go for free but he’ll be replaced by one of Benson, Yamamoto or Puljijarvi. Off-chance that we trade him for futures but that’s really only if we are out of contention come the deadline and I’m not ready to go there.

  25. stush18 says:

    OriginalPouzar: The verbal from the fanbase, the blogging community, the MSM, etc. was that Nuge would likely have to go for cap room – the organization never implied the same.In fact, Chia was express that we wants to keep Nuge and will be looking for ways to keep him – of course, always take the GM’s words with a grain of salt.

    We have three potential internal graduates for top 6 wingers over the next 18 months that could provide value contracts and production – Benson, Puljijarvi and Yamamoto.

    We currently have two slots in the top 6 (including Maroon’s current slot) – hopefully two of these young players can develop enough to provide material value and production in the top 6.

    In my mind, Nuge over Maroon is a no-brainer as a player comparison and even when taking in to account contract status ($6M vs. somewhere around $4M).

    The only hesitation in keeping Maroon over Nuge is that a Nuge trade provides assets in return, whereas, keeping Nuge over Maroon likely includes letting Maroon walk for nothing unless we are out of contention near the deadline and can sell Maroon for futures.

    This is why the verbal attacking chia about testing these young wingers is nuts, imo.

    We NEED to know what we have in slepy, cags, JP, and to a lesser extent, strome and kassian. If we find out two or three of these guys can start delivery consistent offense, it helps to make a decision on maroon/nuge a lot easier.

  26. Kinger_Oil.redux says:

    stush18,

    – It is interesting the hate on Lucic, based on a strong PP year last year, and this year good 5×5, but so ready to pounce on a small sample size

    – Ryan Smith was a garbage skater, garbage shooter, didn’t hit, not much of a psser or carrier of the puck, good boards though. Lucic can plant himself in front of the net way better than Smytty can, and is a much better hockey player. Smytty was effective in the scoring department with way less skill than Lucic well into his 30’s…

  27. Woogie63 says:

    I see the best place for JP to develop is now on the third line with Strome.

    1. We don’t have a center in the AHL that will help him grow his offence.
    2. He can play 12-15 3rd line minutes in a sheltered environment (with a veteran Finn to help him)
    3. JP can play 2PP and help that unit
    4. Matthews and Tkachuk is a reasonable peer group, who are playing first and second line minutes
    5. Our current third line is ineffective to bad, so there is little to lose

    Two of the lessons from Nail for me were;

    1. Get a veteran countryman to help a young star feel comfortable
    2. Get a veteran center that can help a RW group as a pro

  28. stush18 says:

    Big decision time for chiarelli and TMac though.

    If nuge keeps playing like this, what does this do to eventual lineups?

    Xxx-mcdavid-drai
    Lucic-nuge-xxx

    Is what TMac would run. Chiarelli would likely like some sort of 3 different lines combo. However if they move nuge, they have to run

    Maroon-mcdavid-xxx
    Lucic-Leon-xxx

    I wonder if chiarelli forces Tmacs hand by dealing nuge. No option but to split up those two then.

  29. Pouzar says:

    OriginalPouzar: Yes, I agree with most of this post – I can’t say I’m on board with McLellan deploying his bench in a manner that sends a message to Chia or will leave to certain transactions/non-transactions in the summer but I’m on board with him really valuing Nuge and the process or the summer.

    Strome is a decent hockey player and I think he’d be a fine 3C with actual 3rd line wingers – something like Drake and Anton as opposed to Jussi and Iiro.

    Presumably he’ll sign a deal at or below $3M (unless he gets better linemates and his offence spikes) and I am fine letting Maroon walk.It will suck to let that asset go for free but he’ll be replaced by one of Benson, Yamamoto or Puljijarvi.Off-chance that we trade him for futures but that’s really only if we are out of contention come the deadline and I’m not ready to go there.

    Gotta split up McDavid/Drai. We are all high on the win last night me thinks. This duo needs to be split especially now with Slepy/Caggs hurt.

    I am also predicting JP gets the call today.

  30. Kinger_Oil.redux says:

    OriginalPouzar,

    – Maybe my caracterization is a little strong. But Chia is on record as saying he sees Drai as a C

    – McL though he values RNH a lot. Rather than split up Drai and McD (and I have no doubt Drai would be just as effective as #2C as RNH), and therefore diminish RNH’s ability asking him to be #3C, with predictible bad results, he’s going about it the right way short term and long term IMO

  31. Pouzar says:

    stush18: We NEED to know what we have in slepy, cags, JP

    Agreed on Slepy/Cags but there is a massive difference in experience/age between them and JP.
    Totally different situations.

  32. JimmyV1965 says:

    Pouzar:
    I’m with Young Willis. Play the long game with JP.
    Call up Rattie.
    Split up Connor/Drai 5 on 5 and spread the wealth.

    +1

  33. Ribs says:

    OmJo: I’ll admit the changes to most websites recently haven’t been great. Idk what the hell is going on with Sportsnet or why when I click on an article only the bottom third of the window actually has words for 5-6 seconds.

    I have this thing where any video I try to watch on TSN with my phone either takes 5 minutes to start, or doesn’t work at all. The video ads seem to load and play perfectly, though!

    I think most sites try to do too much. Just because you can do something, doesn’t mean you should.

    It would be nice for this site to be a bit more mobile friendly. Thanks Danny!

  34. Jaxon says:

    I just bought a 1-year subscription to The Athletic! Looking forward to all the great content. And I really want to think you, Lowetide, for being my go-to source for all thing Oilers for quite a while now. Years ago (a decade, maybe?) I started out mostly going to CoppernBlue, then OilersNation and now mostly Lowetide, with ventures into Oilers Rig, Oil on Whyte, Woodguy’s posts, and a few others. Congratulations on a new platform for your great content, Allan. Well deserved for all the great writing you do. My Athletic Topics: NHL, Oilers, Roughriders, Blue Jays, Raptors, Toronto FC. I’m from Saskatchewan (Roughriders); I spent 4 years in Edmonton (Oilers); I lived in Regina, Saskatoon, Moose Jaw, Oxbow, Brandon, Prince George, and Victoria. I’ve now been in Toronto for over 17 years( (Toronto FC, Raptors, Blue Jays). Hopefully, we keep the discussions flowing at Lowetide.ca.

  35. voxwah says:

    The only hesitation in keeping Maroon over Nuge is that a Nuge trade provides assets in return, whereas, keeping Nuge over Maroon likely includes letting Maroon walk for nothing unless we are out of contention near the deadline and can sell Maroon for futures.

    Pouzar,

    I’m not really worried at all about Maroon. His agent might be trying to make it look like he wants tons of $$ or he’s going to walk but I think that’s just a bluff.

    Maroon friggin loves playing in Edmonton with McJesus. He’s going to look at the offer on the table from the Oilers and I bet it takes him 20 seconds to decide to take it. Making a bit more money to play on the 3rd line of some other random team vs a very real chance to win a cup in Edmonton is a no brainer.

    It isn’t always about the money.

    Also, did you see baby Nuge last night. Damn, that OT shift was one of the best of his career. NugeBeast!

  36. Bag of Pucks says:

    3rd line needs more talent? Couldn’t agree more.

    McDavid/Strome
    Draisaitl/Maroon
    RNH/Lucic

    Ironically, it’s already there. The HC just refuses to see it.

  37. DBO says:

    Draisatl-McDavid-Yamamoto
    Lucic-Nuge-Slepeshev
    Caggiula-Strome-Puljujarvi
    Khaira-Malone-Kassian

    Is this our forward group next year? Does this work? Is this balanced? Definitely way faster, and skill on every line. Malone has impressed me enough to slot him in at 4C.

    Klefbom-Larsson
    Sekera-Benning
    Russell-Bear

    And is this the defense? Too soon for Bear? Cause he can’t be worse then Gryba, and he brings an offensive element, and allows Russell to babysit and be the defensive conscience of the 3rd pairing.

    I hope they use leverage on Maroon. Cause our forwards next year stack up so much better because of Yamamoto and Puljujarvi. Will this team actually do a 1 year playoff rental. James Neal would look nice for a playoff run!!!

  38. Pouzar says:

    Bag of Pucks: The HC just refuses to see it.

    This is where I am at too.
    McDavid is good with anyone on his RW.
    Wake up TMc.

    Now I am done…..starting NOW!

  39. Bag of Pucks says:

    Pouzar: This is where I am at too.
    McDavid is good with anyone on his RW.
    Wake up TMc.

    Now I am done…..starting NOW!

    Love watching Connor and Leon in 3v3 OT. That should always be a thing. But 5 on 5, putting generational players on the same line is so Generation Y ; )

  40. Pouzar says:

    DBO:
    Draisatl-McDavid-Yamamoto
    Lucic-Nuge-Slepeshev
    Caggiula-Strome-Puljujarvi
    Khaira-Malone-Kassian

    Is this our forward group next year? Does this work? Is this balanced? Definitely way faster, and skill on every line. Malone has impressed me enough to slot him in at 4C.

    Klefbom-Larsson
    Sekera-Benning
    Russell-Bear

    And is this the defense? Too soon for Bear? Cause he can’t be worse then Gryba, and he brings an offensive element, and allows Russell to babysit and be the defensive conscience of the 3rd pairing.

    I hope they use leverage on Maroon. Cause our forwards next year stack up so much better because of Yamamoto and Puljujarvi. Will this team actually do a 1 year playoff rental. James Neal would look nice for a playoff run!!!

    Where did you trade our Best D-man to? And for what?

  41. Bag of Pucks says:

    voxwah,

    Wouldn’t surprise me to see Maroon sign with St. Loo. Isn’t his new fiancee and son there?

  42. Offside says:

    Love watching Oilers magic when playing 3 v 3. The problem is if we rely on it to make the playoffs, it will be gone come post-season. Need to learn how to win in regulation time so our point total is not inflated in comparison to our actual 5 v 5 performance. Baby steps. Onward and upward!

  43. Pouzar says:

    Bag of Pucks: Love watching Connor and Leon in 3v3 OT. That should always be a thing? But 5 on 5, putting generational players on the same line is so Generation Y ; )

    +1000000000

  44. Dicky94 says:

    stush18,

    Keep Nuge, trade Maroon. A guy I would like to see back here is old Magnus P. Be interesting to see him with McDavid and Drai. Some serious speed.

  45. JimmyV1965 says:

    Would love to see McDavid and Drai split up, except on the PP of course. I still don’t understand that. The first line hasn’t scored in three games sans OT so what’s the harm in splitting them up? JP should stay in the AHL. He’s got one goal and that’s not on his linemates. Rattie has a bunch playing on the same team. Like LT said, what happens if he struggles and you have to send him down a third time.

  46. OmJo says:

    Ribs: I have this thing where any video I try to watch on TSN with my phone either takes 5 minutes to start, or doesn’t work at all. The video ads seem to load and play perfectly, though!

    I think most sites try to do too much. Just because you can do something, doesn’t mean you should.

    It would be nice for this site to be a bit more mobile friendly. Thanks Danny!

    Yup. Same with the NHL.

    Ads never fail. That’s the driving force for most of those website changes.

  47. OriginalPouzar says:

    Woogie63:
    I see the best place for JP to develop is now on the third line with Strome.

    1. We don’t have a center in the AHL that will help him grow his offence.
    2. He can play 12-15 3rd line minutes in a sheltered environment (with a veteran Finn to help him)
    3. JP can play 2PPand help that unit
    4. Matthews and Tkachuk is a reasonable peer group, who are playing first and second line minutes
    5. Our current third line is ineffective to bad, so there is little to lose

    I can’t disagree with this.

    Puljijarvi on the third line would presume Drai and Kass (or Slep/Caggulia once healthy) as the top 2 RWs which I’m fine with.

    Also, if JP plays on the third line with Strome, although I would expect some production, I think any worry about his bonuses can be minimized.

  48. Pouzar says:

    Bakersfield Condors (@Condors) · Twitter

    https://twitter.com/Condors

    The @EdmontonOilers have recalled @Jpuljujarvi up the @IAFFLocal1301 ladder >>

  49. OriginalPouzar says:

    Pouzar: Gotta split up McDavid/Drai. We are all high on the win last night me thinks. This duo needs to be split especially now with Slepy/Caggs hurt.

    I am also predicting JP gets the call today.

    I don’t necessarily agree that Drai and McDavid need to be split and if fact I can make an argument that they shouldn’t be. For example, the verbal is that “anyone can play with McDavid” but that has simply not proven to be true and, in fact, certain wingers have cratered McDavid’s scoring in addition to not producing themselves.

    Teams are actively trying to take away McDavid’s speed through the neutral zone – one area where Drai excels is at getting McDavid the puck in the neutral zone with speed. He can make passes that others can’t – this is a material benefit to McDavid and the top line.

    Drai makes McDavid better – its not just the other way.

    Anyways, the “need” to split them is contingent on our other lines being able to produce at even strength. Given that both Lucic and Nuge are over 2 P/60 at even strength, that 2nd line is producing.

    Right now the bottom 6 is a black hole but that is due to injury issues – if Slepy and Drake were flanking Strome, I think we would love that line as a third line.

    Look, its not a no-brainder that McDavid and Leon should stay together but its also not a no-brainer that they should be split.

    The vitriol towards the coach for not splitting them is very disrespectful in my mind – this is a combo that lead us to the 2nd round of the playoffs last year.

  50. OriginalPouzar says:

    Pouzar:
    McDavid is good with anyone on his RW.

    The above statement is simply not true.

    Well, its true that he’s still “good” with anyone, however, his production does change depending on who his wingers are.

  51. Woodguy v2.0 says:

    Edmonton Oilers‏Verified account
    @EdmontonOilers

    The #Oilers have recalled forward Jesse Puljujärvi from @TheAHL’s Bakersfield @Condors & placed forward Anton Slepyshev on Injured Reserve.

    Shitty for Sleppy.

    Gogogogogogogogo JP!!!

  52. OriginalPouzar says:

    Slep to IR and Puljijarvi has been recalled.

  53. Dicky94 says:

    Woodguy v2.0,

    For some reason I’m actually excited this time.

  54. OriginalPouzar says:

    Excited to see JP in the lineup tomorrow afternoon.

    I would go with:

    Maroon/McDavid/Drai
    Lucic/Nuge/Kass
    Drake/Strome/Puljijarvi

    Hopefully Drake can go or else I’d expect Jokinen in that spot.

    I think Strome has played reasonably well given his boat anchor wingers and he can be a very nice 3C with talented/skilled wingers.

  55. jtblack says:

    Get to watch Yamamoto’s first game back in the WHL tonight. Hoping he puts a few past ….. Skinner …. 😉

  56. Pouzar says:

    OriginalPouzar: I don’t necessarily agree that Drai and McDavid need to be split and if fact I can make an argument that they shouldn’t be.For example, the verbal is that “anyone can play with McDavid” but that has simply not proven to be true and, in fact, certain wingers have cratered McDavid’s scoring in addition to not producing themselves.

    Teams are actively trying to take away McDavid’s speed through the neutral zone – one area where Drai excels is at getting McDavid the puck in the neutral zone with speed.He can make passes that others can’t – this is a material benefit to McDavid and the top line.

    Drai makes McDavid better – its not just the other way.

    Anyways, the “need” to split them is contingent on our other lines being able to produce at even strength.Given that both Lucic and Nuge are over 2 P/60 at even strength, that 2nd line is producing.

    Right now the bottom 6 is a black hole but that is due to injury issues – if Slepy and Drake were flanking Strome, I think we would love that line as a third line.

    Look, its not a no-brainder that McDavid and Leon should stay together but its also not a no-brainer that they should be split.

    The vitriol towards the coach for not splitting them is very disrespectful in my mind – this is a combo that lead us to the 2nd round of the playoffs last year.

    “Very disrespectful” is a tad over the top. I am a random dude on the internet and I doubt TMc is reading my comments.

    There are smarter dudes than me advocating this same move…are they disrespectful too?

  57. Pouzar says:

    Woodguy v2.0:
    Edmonton Oilers‏Verified account
    @EdmontonOilers


    The #Oilers have recalled forward Jesse Puljujärvi from @TheAHL’s Bakersfield @Condors & placed forward Anton Slepyshev on Injured Reserve.

    Shitty for Sleppy.

    Gogogogogogogogo JP!!!

    WG do you have the numbers for McDavid with/without Drai?

  58. jtblack says:

    Woodguy v2.0,

    Let’s hope JP makes them have no choice but to keep him ; a la LEON in 2015-16.

    IF he can stick AND Contribute it would be such a boost.

    Noticed Letestu got very little ice Thats how it should be. He’s an anchor; love the guy but he is a hindrance to my eye.

  59. frjohnk says:

    Pouzar: There are smarter dudes than me

    All of us who also cheer for the Jets

    Pouzar: are they disrespectful too

    We dont give a shit

  60. Pouzar says:

    jtblack: Noticed Letestu got very little ice Thats how it should be.

    Not sure he got a shift after the 2nd goal.

  61. frjohnk says:

    OriginalPouzar:
    Slep to IR

    Is it the Pubis?

    Been awhile since we had a Pubis injury

  62. Pouzar says:

    frjohnk: All of us who also cheer for the Jets

    We dont give a shit

    I hate the Jest!

  63. SHILL83 says:

    19-97-29
    27-93-Rattie
    36-18-98
    24-55-44

    25-6
    77-83
    4-62

    If were gonna keep McD and Drai together still, I’d like to see Rattie get a chance on that second line if Slepy is gonna be out otherwise I want Slepy to stay there. Would also be a fan of seeing JP play with strome and Jok. The 3rd line hasn’t done anything in the games and if we can generate some offense while getting JP into some NHL games that would be great for his development and the team.

    19-97-18
    27-29-58
    36-93-98
    24-55-44

    Lines I would like to see in the near future. Get McD, Drai, And Nuge all on their own 3 lines. Let JP play with a great 2 way center in Nuge and his country men. That would be a perfect spot for him. Lets try strome on the top line like it was talked about in the summer. Lets see whats there. The second line is that from the playoffs and those are some big bodies that can play well together. This would give use three great lines to score. Would really like to see these lines.

  64. Melvis says:

    I wouldn’t mind seeing more posts from women. Hockey and soccer wives and moms, college and NCAA types in various sportting pursuits that might relate to hockey and the Oilers.

    I’m not entirely sure how one might reach out in that regard, but LT’s radio show might be a starting point in terms of booking the odd guest. Maybe a Hall of Fame inductee, a Clara Hughes, Cindy Klassen, Hayley Wickenheiser, etc.

  65. Todd Macallan says:

    Pouzar: I hate the Jest!

    I mean who has the time these days to read a book that big, even if it’s a classic!

  66. JimmyV1965 says:

    Pouzar: “Very disrespectful” is a tad over the top. I am a random dude on the internet and I doubt TMc is reading my comments.

    There are smarter dudes than me advocating this same move…are they disrespectful too?

    Agreed. Not sure how it’s disrespectful. Even if you want McDavid and Drai split up, it doesn’t imply you think the coach is doing a bad job overall. Lots of people smarter than me see this as a reasonable thing to do.

  67. Melvis says:

    Woodguy v2.0,

    I’d echo those sentiments but, but, but…it’s already been done.

  68. Dicky94 says:

    JimmyV1965,

    Is this Jimmy Johnson?

  69. OriginalPouzar says:

    Dicky94:
    stush18,

    Keep Nuge, trade Maroon. A guy I would like to see back here is old Magnus P. Be interesting to see him with McDavid and Drai. Some serious speed.

    Trading Maroon is simply unlikely.

    As an impending UFA his value is reduced in a trade this year so we would be downgrading our lineup.

    Management will not downgrade the current roster unless/until we are close to the trade deadline and are simply not in contention.

    If that is the case then, yes, Maroon needs to be traded for picks/prospects.

    If we are in contention then we cannot trade Maroon and, yes, we likely have to let him go for nothing in the off-season. It will suck to let him go for no return but we simply cannot downgrade the current roster if we are contending for a playoff spot.

  70. russ99 says:

    Kind of bummed Puljujarvi is being recalled so soon, makes me wonder if Slepy’s injury is longer term.

    But considering his linemates in Bakersfield and some suspect utilization by Fleming, maybe it’s for the best.

  71. Bag of Pucks says:

    I think MacLellan’s fantasy of the perfect game is less than 20 shots against with 0 HDSCs against and the team wins 1-0 on a Draisaitl to McDavid goal.

    I’m fairly positive the average fan would like to see something a little more entertaining.

    Remember when Slats went that entire season with Messier on Gretz’s wing? Yeah, me neither….

  72. OriginalPouzar says:

    Pouzar: “Very disrespectful” is a tad over the top. I am a random dude on the internet and I doubt TMc is reading my comments.

    There are smarter dudes than me advocating this same move…are they disrespectful too?

    To call the man (McLellan) an idiot and similar concepts because he isn’t doing what an internet fan thinks he is doing is disrespectful to my mind. Its also quite pretentious to think that Jack Adams nominated coach is an idiot because he makes decisions that don’t jive with yours.

    I’m not saying you are calling him names like this but I’ve seen it all over the internet and much worse.

    Maybe disrespectful is the wrong word but I’d prefer of the fan-base would discuss the team with a bit more class, personally.

  73. Bag of Pucks says:

    russ99:
    Kind of bummed Puljujarvi is being recalled so soon, makes me wonder if Slepy’s injury is longer term.

    But considering his linemates and some suspect utilization by Fleming, maybe it’s for the best.

    Sleppy starting to look like he’s on the Tyler Pitlick career plan. Like the player’s skillset, but if you can’t stay in the lineup?

  74. OriginalPouzar says:

    Talbot the confirmed starter tomorrow.

    I think he could get both games this weekend – he’s just finding his form and the coaching staff may want to roll with that.

  75. OmJo says:

    Pouzar:
    Bakersfield Condors (@Condors) · Twitter

    https://twitter.com/Condors

    The @EdmontonOilers have recalled @Jpuljujarvi up the @IAFFLocal1301 ladder >>

    I’m ready for Pakarainen-Jokinen-Puljujarvi!

    Think about it. They can yell out instructions to each other in Finnish and the opposing team would likely have no idea what they’re saying.

    It’s the perfect strategy!

  76. Chachi says:

    Pouzar: Where did you trade our Best D-man to? And for what?

    Nurse wasn’t a top four d-man when he was 20 years old so what he is doing now doesn’t count… or something stupid like that.

  77. OriginalPouzar says:

    .

  78. Bag of Pucks says:

    OriginalPouzar: To call the man (McLellan) an idiot and similar concepts because he isn’t doing what an internet fan thinks he is doing is disrespectful to my mind. Its also quite pretentious to think that Jack Adams nominated coach is an idiot because he makes decisions that don’t jive with yours.

    You know’s what pretentious? When some grammar Nazi points out that the word you actually mean to use here is jibe and not jive.

  79. Pouzar says:

    OriginalPouzar: To call the man (McLellan) an idiot and similar concepts because he isn’t doing what an internet fan thinks he is doing is disrespectful to my mind. Its also quite pretentious to think that Jack Adams nominated coach is an idiot because he makes decisions that don’t jive with yours.

    I’m not saying you are calling him names like this but I’ve seen it all over the internet and much worse.

    Maybe disrespectful is the wrong word but I’d prefer of the fan-base would discuss the team with a bit more class, personally.

    Nope. I called him a village idiot. Wouldn’t say it to his face. That goes without saying.
    I would call him stubborn and still probably get knocked out. 🙂

  80. OriginalPouzar says:

    russ99:
    Kind of bummed Puljujarvi is being recalled so soon, makes me wonder if Slepy’s injury is longer term.

    But considering his linemates in Bakersfield and some suspect utilization by Fleming, maybe it’s for the best.

    Slep has been placed on IR so he’s out at least 10 days.

  81. Bag of Pucks says:

    OmJo: I’m ready for Pakarainen-Jokinen-Puljujarvi!

    Think about it. They can yell out instructions to each other in Finnish and the opposing team would likely have no idea what they’re saying.

    It’s the perfect strategy!

    How about Pakarinen – Caggiula – Puljujarvi!

    I have no idea if it would work, but I like the idea of ‘The PCP Line’

    That’s an old school drug reference for those playing along at home ; )

  82. Pouzar says:

    Chachi: Nurse wasn’t a top four d-man when he was 20 years old so what he is doing now doesn’t count… or something stupid like that.

    Chaos, Low IQ, etc.

  83. OmJo says:

    OriginalPouzar,

    Well then don’t expect Brossoit to be lights out in the games he does play. He’s going to be rusty all season.

    I fail to see how TMacs reluctance to play Brossoit is any different than MacTavish saying he doesn’t trust Dubnyk as a starter, with regards to a goaltenders confidence.

    I’d give Brossoit the start against the Rangers. Then get a refreshed Talbot out there the next day against Washington to make up for the rest of the team likely being a bit fatigued against a Capitals teams that doesn’t play on Saturday.

  84. OriginalPouzar says:

    I’m sure many in Oil Country will call for Puljijarvi on the top line or at least the top 6 but I’d like to see him on the third line.

    For one, we can assume with much certainty that Drai will be 1RW next game.

    I can see the argument for putting Jesse with Nuge and Lucic but I did like Kassian’s game there last night and that line was material in the win.

    What we really need is a boost to that third line. I think Strome is just find as a 3C but he carried around Jokinen and Pakarinan last night.

    I would love to see Jesse on Strome’s RW with, hopefully, Drake on the left wing.

    Does the following not look like 3 solid lines:

    Maroon/McDavid/Drai
    Lucic/Nuge/Kassian
    Caggulia/Strome/Puljijarvi

  85. Pouzar says:

    Get JP’s butt on the PP too. Not like the PP is humming and a goal will be huge for his confidence.

  86. OriginalPouzar says:

    OriginalPouzar:
    I’m sure many in Oil Country will call for Puljijarvi on the top line or at least the top 6 but I’d like to see him on the third line.

    For one, we can assume with much certainty that Drai will be 1RW next game.

    I can see the argument for putting Jesse with Nuge and Lucic but I did like Kassian’s game there last night and that line was material in the win.

    What we really need is a boost to that third line.I think Strome is just find as a 3C but he carried around Jokinen and Pakarinan last night.

    I would love to see Jesse on Strome’s RW with, hopefully, Drake on the left wing.

    Does the following not look like 3 solid lines:

    Maroon/McDavid/Drai
    Lucic/Nuge/Kassian
    Caggulia/Strome/Puljijarvi

    Well, I guess I’m wrong:

    “We’ll look for his shot & his ability to score… It’s an opportunity for him.” Coach McLellan on @Jpuljujarvi, says he’ll have a top-six role upon arrival

    I would assume the following:

    Maroon/McDavid/Drai
    Lucic/Nuge/Puljijarvi
    Caggulia/Strome/Kassian

  87. Chachi says:

    Pouzar: Chaos, Low IQ, etc.

    I am not sure that all of the past criticism of Nurse has come from a good place. Some of it was warranted for sure, but some of it had an icky quality to it.

  88. OriginalPouzar says:

    OmJo:
    OriginalPouzar,

    Well then don’t expect Brossoit to be lights out in the games he does play. He’s going to be rusty all season.

    I fail to see how TMacs reluctance to play Brossoit is any different than MacTavish saying he doesn’t trust Dubnyk as a starter, with regards to a goaltenders confidence.

    I’d give Brossoit the start against the Rangers. Then get a refreshed Talbot out there the next day against Washington to make up for the rest of the team likely being a bit fatigued against a Capitals teams that doesn’t play on Saturday.

    Not a chance that Laurent would start on Saturday against the Rangers – Talbot is just starting to roll and we know he can get in to a groove and provide Vezina level goaltending.

    We’ll see about Sunday when the time comes.

    I’m more concerned about getting Talbot on a roll that mitigating the rustiness of the back-up.

    One of the skills of a back-up goalie is to be ready when called on even if infrequently.

    LB has provided multiple solid performances in the past with plenty of time in between starts.

  89. stush18 says:

    Kinger_Oil.redux:
    stush18,

    – It is interesting the hate on Lucic, based on a strong PP year last year, and this year good 5×5, but so ready to pounce on a small sample size

    – Ryan Smith was a garbage skater, garbage shooter, didn’t hit, not much of a psser or carrier of the puck, good boards though.Lucic can plant himself in front of the net way better than Smytty can, and is a much better hockey player.Smytty was effective in the scoring department with way less skill than Lucic well into his 30’s…

    Imo, people cannot separate the Hall trade with the lucic signing.

    He is, and always has been, one of the top producing LWs in the game, and has always carried the best possession numbers, even relative to his teams.

    Lucic still does not have an albatross contract, and I doubt he will by the end.

    His game hasn’t never been speed, and it’s never been about scoring goals.

  90. Woodguy v2.0 says:

    OriginalPouzar,

    The above statement is simply not true.
    Well, its true that he’s still “good” with anyone, however, his production does change depending on who his wingers are.

    Don’t look at who gets points with who, that doesn’t matter.

    Look at how many goals the Oilers score when who is with who, that’s all that matters.

    Here is every forward that McDavid has played over 30 minutes with 5v5 in his caree and their TOI together:

    With TOI With
    Patrick Maroon 1077.48
    Leon Draisaitl 825.05
    Jordan Eberle 766.80
    Milan Lucic 457.48
    Benoit Pouliot 324.05
    Nail Yakupov 199.62
    Zack Kassian 84.40
    Jesse Puljujarvi 84.03
    Drake Caggiula 71.93
    Taylor Hall 70.03
    Kailer Yamamoto 61.87
    Lauri Korpikoski 46.22
    Mark Letestu 45.83
    Anton Slepyshev 38.77
    Tyler Pitlick 34.10
    Iiro Pakarinen 30.77

    Now here is how many 5v5 goals the Oilers score when McDavid is with these wingers:

    With GF/60

    With GF/60
    Patrick Maroon 3.73
    Leon Draisaitl 3.78
    Jordan Eberle 3.44
    Milan Lucic 2.89
    Benoit Pouliot 3.52
    Nail Yakupov 3.91
    Zack Kassian 3.55
    Jesse Puljujarvi 5.71
    Drake Caggiula 5.00
    Taylor Hall 2.57
    Kailer Yamamoto 1.94
    Lauri Korpikoski 1.30
    Mark Letestu 1.31
    Anton Slepyshev 3.10
    Tyler Pitlick 3.52
    Iiro Pakarinen 0.00

    You’ll notice that as the TOI sample becomes larger the GF/ON converges above 3.5/60

    There are some artifacts in this data that we could pull out.

    For instance we know that Eberle and Drai are almost at identical rates when you control for Lucic/Maroon at LW. (although Drai has pulled ahead this year)

    Lucic is the only winger who really dragged McDavid down who has a larger sample.

    The Elite first lines in the NHL score at 3.5/60 and above, that should be the line in the sand.

    I’m willing to be that as long as 19 was the LW, then any of 91,58,98 would get over 3.5/60 in a larger sample.

    The question is “if 29 is moved off 97’s line how much does that improve the 2nd line and how much does that drop the first line”

    I think that 19-97-98 could achieve 3.5+ and should be given a chance.

    27-93 so far this year are 3.41/60. Last year they were 1.94. Where will they end up? 3.2?

    How much higher does that go if you add 29?

    Can the Oilers manage to run two lines with at +3.5?

    That was the crux of the “OMG don’t trade Hall” argument because you had two lines that could produce at elite levels (regardless of the Dcorps behind them).

    Can they get a configuration that will produce that now?

    I keep 29 and 97 together on PP1 and 3v3 for obvious reasons, but splitting them up has to be the goal, even as soon as Saturday.

    If McDavid is banged up (his skating aside from OT seemed to be in the “gingerly” side then maybe you don’t make that move today, but it needs to be made.

    My roster if everyone is healthy:

    19-97-98
    27-93-29
    91-18-58
    24-55-44

  91. Woodguy v2.0 says:

    Chachi: Nurse wasn’t a top four d-man when he was 20 years old so what he is doing now doesn’t count… or something stupid like that.

    You should change your SN to Strawmanchi

  92. Woogie63 says:

    Maroon’s next contract is the definition of a home town discount. 30 year, big slower, LW that seems to be a good NHLer when he plays with Connor. I would suggest than Slepy, or Benson could play LW with Connor and Leon and contribute to the team’s success.

    Brett Callighan seemed to be a better player when he played LW with Gretzky between 78-81.

    1976-77 Edmonton Oilers WHA 29 9 16 25 48 5 4 1 5 7
    1977-78 Edmonton Oilers WHA 80 20 30 50 112 5 0 2 2 16
    1978-79 Edmonton Oilers WHA 71 31 39 70 79 29 13 5 10 15 15
    1979-80 Edmonton Oilers NHL 59 23 35 58 72 -1 3 0 2 2 0
    1980-81 Edmonton Oilers NHL 55 25 35 60 32 13 9 4 4 8 6
    1981-82 Edmonton Oilers NHL 46 8 19 27 28 16 2 0 0 0 2
    1985-86 Adirondack Red Wings AHL 11 0 2 2 6 — — — — —

  93. Chachi says:

    Woodguy v2.0: You should change your SN to Strawmanchi

    You should change yours to Woodruf Thinskinington.

  94. Pouzar says:

    Woodguy v2.0:
    OriginalPouzar,

    The above statement is simply not true.
    Well, its true that he’s still “good” with anyone, however, his production does change depending on who his wingers are.

    Don’t look at who gets points with who, that doesn’t matter.

    Look at how many goals the Oilers score when who is with who, that’s all that matters.

    Here is every forward that McDavid has played over 30 minutes with 5v5 in his caree and their TOI together:

    WithTOI With
    Patrick Maroon1077.48
    Leon Draisaitl825.05
    Jordan Eberle766.80
    Milan Lucic457.48
    Benoit Pouliot324.05
    Nail Yakupov199.62
    Zack Kassian84.40
    Jesse Puljujarvi84.03
    Drake Caggiula71.93
    Taylor Hall70.03
    Kailer Yamamoto61.87
    Lauri Korpikoski46.22
    Mark Letestu45.83
    Anton Slepyshev38.77
    Tyler Pitlick34.10
    Iiro Pakarinen30.77

    Now here is how many 5v5 goals the Oilers score when McDavid is with these wingers:

    WithGF/60

    WithGF/60
    Patrick Maroon3.73
    Leon Draisaitl3.78
    Jordan Eberle3.44
    Milan Lucic2.89
    Benoit Pouliot3.52
    Nail Yakupov3.91
    Zack Kassian3.55
    Jesse Puljujarvi5.71
    Drake Caggiula5.00
    Taylor Hall2.57
    Kailer Yamamoto1.94
    Lauri Korpikoski1.30
    Mark Letestu1.31
    Anton Slepyshev3.10
    Tyler Pitlick3.52
    Iiro Pakarinen0.00

    You’ll notice that as the TOI sample becomes larger the GF/ON converges above 3.5/60

    There are some artifacts in this data that we could pull out.

    For instance we know that Eberle and Drai are almost at identical rates when you control for Lucic/Maroon at LW. (although Drai has pulled ahead this year)

    Lucic is the only winger who really dragged McDavid down who has a larger sample.

    The Elite first lines in the NHL score at 3.5/60 and above, that should be the line in the sand.

    I’m willing to be that as long as 19 was the LW, then any of 91,58,98 would get over 3.5/60 in a larger sample.

    The question is “if 29 is moved off 97’s line how much does that improve the 2nd line and how much does that drop the first line”

    I think that 19-97-98 could achieve 3.5+ and should be given a chance.

    27-93 so far this year are 3.41/60.Last year they were 1.94.Where will they end up? 3.2?

    How much higher does that go if you add 29?

    Can the Oilers manage to run two lines with at +3.5?

    That was the crux of the “OMG don’t trade Hall” argument because you had two lines that could produce at elite levels (regardless of the Dcorps behind them).

    Can they get a configuration that will produce that now?

    I keep 29 and 97 together on PP1 and 3v3 for obvious reasons, but splitting them up has to be the goal, even as soon as Saturday.

    If McDavid is banged up (his skating aside from OT seemed to be in the “gingerly” side then maybe you don’t make that move today, but it needs to be made.

    My roster if everyone is healthy:

    19-97-98
    27-93-29
    91-18-58
    24-55-44

    Thx a million.

  95. JimmyV1965 says:

    OriginalPouzar: To call the man (McLellan) an idiot and similar concepts because he isn’t doing what an internet fan thinks he is doing is disrespectful to my mind. Its also quite pretentious to think that Jack Adams nominated coach is an idiot because he makes decisions that don’t jive with yours.

    I’m not saying you are calling him names like this but I’ve seen it all over the internet and much worse.

    Maybe disrespectful is the wrong word but I’d prefer of the fan-base would discuss the team with a bit more class, personally.

    I’ve certainly never called TMac and idiot, but I certainly don’t believe being nominated for an award makes him a good coach. We’ve seen coaches win the award only to be out of the league the following year.

  96. Kinger_Oil.redux says:

    Woodguy v2.0,

    – If Lucic scored like 3 more goals and had a better sh%, this doesn’t meet your test

    – I mean its fine to have provided all this, but to be so confident to say based on a 20-25 game sample to infer anything other than variance for Lucic being the only winger who really dragged McDavid, stats doesn’t allow you to make that conclusion with any confidence

    – I really doubt there is anything technique wise, or bad about Lucic wise that explains a few goals over 25 games with McD. One should be much more confident with the small sample size being main factor, than some lack of chemistry or Lucic is bad inference

  97. dustrock says:

    Talbot hasn’t played that well against the Rangers IIRC. I believe he let in 7 goals combined and we lost both to NYR last year.

  98. Romulus Apotheosis says:

    Last year a full 1/3 and 1/2 of Draisaitl and Lucic’s points came on PP.

    This year neither has a single point on the PP yet.

    At evens things are going perhaps better than one has a right to expect and on the PP things are going much worse.

  99. Woodguy v2.0 says:

    stush18,

    He is, and always has been, one of the top producing LWs in the game, and has always carried the best possession numbers, even relative to his teams.

    This is incorrect.

    I’ve studied Lucic’s possession in depth and he’s not been the best possession player on his teams.

    He’s been a first class complimentary player, but he’s never driven possession on his own.

    Very Eberle like in that way. Won’t drag a good line down and fits in with high end players.

    His last year in BOS, either he or Pearson were the top 2 LW.

    Kopitar with Lucic 58.3%CF
    Kopitar with Pearson 59.3%CF

    Carter with Lucic 59.7%CF
    Carter with Pearson 54.8%CF

    His last year in BOS

    Bergeron with Lucic 53.7%
    Bergeron with Marchand 59.2%

    Krejci with Lucic 51.9%
    Krejci with Marchand 51.5%

    So you can see he wasn’t really a driver, and has not been a big RelCor guy compared to the other top 6 players, but he has always fit in well with high end players.

    That didn’t really change last year either with McDavid or RNH:

    McDavid with Lucic 55.4%
    McDavid with Maroon 53%

    RNH with Lucic 50.5%
    RNH with Pouliot 48.5%
    RNH with Maroon 54.4%

    What changed last year was the GF/60 disparity. The goals dried up with Lucic on the ice:

    GF/60
    McDavid with Lucic 3.61
    McDavid with Maroon 2.93

    GF/60
    RNH with Lucic 1.94
    RNH with Pouliot 1.81
    RNH with Maroon 2.94

    The production with Lucic was not top 6 production with RNH and he dragged McDavid down to low 2nd line production all while maintaining a reasonable CF%

    If whatever caused the GF/60 to drop for everyone playing with him last year is gone, that bodes well for this year and hopefully the next couple years of that contract.

    Make no mistake.

    His 5v5 production was a big drag last year and not commensurate with his salary.

    Of course its going to be a topic of conversation.

  100. Woodguy v2.0 says:

    Chachi: You should change yours to Woodruf Thinskinington.

    Oh, the original comment was directed at me?

    I was just making an observation.

    Now I really need to come up with a snappy retort.

  101. delooper says:

    It would be nice to do a comparison, how often do the advanced metrics on a per-game basis correspond to the outcome of the individual game? Seems like for the Oilers it often goes the opposite direction compared to expectations. Or perhaps that’s perception bias.

  102. Woodguy v2.0 says:

    Kinger_Oil.redux:
    Woodguy v2.0,

    – If Lucic scored like 3 more goals and had a better sh%, this doesn’t meet your test

    – I mean its fine to have provided all this, but to be so confident to say based on a 20-25 game sample to infer anything other than variance for Lucic being the only winger who really dragged McDavid, stats doesn’t allow you to make that conclusion with any confidence

    – I really doubt there is anything technique wise, or bad about Lucic wise that explains a few goals over 25 games with McD.One should be much more confident with the small sample size being main factor, than some lack of chemistry or Lucic is bad inference

    I’m reporting what happened.

    Spin whatever argument around it you want.

  103. Melman says:

    Bag of Pucks: You know’s what pretentious? When some grammar Nazi points out that the word you actually mean to use here is jibe and not jive.

    I’ve seen him dance – he can’t jive either

  104. Woodguy v2.0 says:

    Romulus Apotheosis:
    Last year a full 1/3 and 1/2 of Draisaitl and Lucic’s points came on PP.

    This year neither has a single point on the PP yet.

    At evens things are going perhaps better than one has a right to expect and on the PP things are going much worse.

    97-29 are scoring at 4.7/60, last year it was 3.65
    27-93 are scoring at 3.41/60, last year it was 1.94

    Top 6 is running hot while the PP is running cold and the bottom 6 are ice.

    Handy, that.

    When it evens out I hope the PP is warmer than it is now.

  105. JimmyV1965 says:

    Congrats to JP for the call up. I hope it all works well, he kicks butt here and never looks back. I’m very concerned about the promotion though because it reminds me of the bad old days when we called up players to fix problems on the big club. What’s best for the big club should never enter into the equation. His promotion should be based soley on his development; nothing less, nothing more. This is the development model that killed us in the past.

  106. Woodguy v2.0 says:

    Dicky94:
    Woodguy v2.0,

    For some reason I’m actually excited this time.

    Hopefully it will be like when Drai was recalled.

    That would solve a few issues.

  107. Chachi says:

    Woodguy v2.0: Oh, the original comment was directed at me?

    I was just making an observation.

    Now I really need to come up with a snappy retort.

    It was aimed generally at people who bet against kids. They’re right most of the time, but they are dicks about it all of the time. Don’t worry about coming up with a snappy retort; wouldn’t want you to hurt yourself.

  108. Woodguy v2.0 says:

    Ribs: I have this thing where any video I try to watch on TSN with my phone either takes 5 minutes to start, or doesn’t work at all. The video ads seem to load and play perfectly, though!

    I think most sites try to do too much. Just because you can do something, doesn’t mean you should.

    It would be nice for this site to be a bit more mobile friendly. Thanks Danny!

    In an effort to increase online revenues, they’d made their online offering way less palatable.

    Fox lost 88% of their web visits when the “pivoted to video”

    http://awfulannouncing.com/fox/foxsports-com-reportedly-lost-88-audience-pivoting-video.html

  109. Pouzar says:

    JimmyV1965:
    Congrats to JP for the call up. I hope it all works well, he kicks butt here and never looks back. I’m very concerned about the promotion though because it reminds me of the bad old days when we called up players to fix problems on the big club. What’s best for the big club should never enter into the equation. His promotion should be based soley on his development; nothing less, nothing more. This is the development model that killed us in the past.

    Agreed.

  110. Kinger_Oil.redux says:

    Woodguy v2.0:
    stush18,

    He is, and always has been, one of the top producing LWs in the game, and has always carried the best possession numbers, even relative to his teams.

    Make no mistake.

    His 5v5 production was a big drag last year and not commensurate with his salary.

    Of course its going to be a topic of conversation.

    – Last year, Lucic scored 11 goals 5×5. In the 3 previous years, he averaged 18 goals.

    – Hi SH% was 2% less than his 3 year average. Guess what, if he had scored at the same sh% as the last 3 years, he would have scored 17 goals.

    – So he is not a river-pusher, aka he is not Hall

    – i think that using percentages when going across large data sets often obscures things

    – Had Lucic scored as his historical sh% rate for the last 3 years, he would have scored the same amount. As it is, his even strength scoring was down 7 goals last year.

    – 7 goals is not a “big drag” IMO, in the context of actual results, and can be explained by a lot of different factors.

    – This year, he is doing well 5×5, and still is not scoring anywhere near his historical sh%. But again this is only 15 games…

    – He has not a single point on the PP this year.

  111. Woodguy v2.0 says:

    Chachi: It was aimed generally at people who bet against kids. They’re right most of the time, but they are dicks about it all of the time. Don’t worry about coming up with a snappy retort; wouldn’t want you to hurt yourself.

    Wow.

    I was honestly having fun with this whole thing.

    wouldn’t want you to hurt yourself.

    and I certainly didn’t expect a boilerplate insult.

    Stramanchi Boilerplate maybe?

  112. Pouzar says:

    Woodguy v2.0: Hopefully it will be like when Drai was recalled.

    Drai was dominating the last few games before his call up but not getting any bounces. Damnnit I wish I could have watched the games this year. Like the shot totals for JP at least.

  113. Chachi says:

    Woodguy v2.0: Wow.

    I was honestly having fun with this whole thing.

    wouldn’t want you to hurt yourself.

    and I certainly didn’t expect a boilerplate insult.

    Stramanchi Boilerplate maybe?

    I was having fun with it too. You are a confusing person to communicate with sometimes.

  114. Kinger_Oil.redux says:

    Woodguy v2.0: I’m reporting what happened.

    Spin whatever argument around it you want.

    – I did! Your comment was ” Lucic being the only winger who really dragged McDavid”.

    – Math suggests this is variance. Also, other wingers albeit with less time, did far worse

    – I also added some actual results to provide more context.

    – I’m not as confident as you are that Lucic is going to be a massive boat-anchor.

    – That’s what makes a market!

  115. Woodguy v2.0 says:

    Kinger_Oil.redux: – Last year, Lucic scored 11 goals 5×5.In the 3 previous years, he averaged 18 goals.

    – Hi SH% was 2% less than his 3 year average.Guess what, if he had scored at the same sh% as the last 3 years, he would have scored 17 goals.

    – So he is not a river-pusher, aka he is not Hall

    – i think that using percentages when going across large data sets often obscures things

    – Had Lucic scored as his historical sh% rate for the last 3 years, he would have scored the same amount.As it is, his even strength scoring was down 6 goals last year.

    – 6 goals is not a “big drag” IMO, in the context of actual results, and can be explained by a lot of different factors.

    – This year, he is doing well 5×5, and still is not scoring anywhere near his historical sh%.But again this is only 15 games…

    – He has not a single point on the PP this year.

    I’m not looking at individual production, but team production when individuals are on the ice.

    Players can help create goals and not get points.

    Players can be a drag on goals and get lots of points (comparatively)

    That’s why I don’t think using points is a great way to measure offensive contribution.

    Goals Scored while on the ice measures it well imo and can catch some data that points don’t.

    Its all about outscoring the opposition and with McDavid this team needs him to out score at a high rate to cover the roster deficiencies like he did last year.

    The “drag” comment is when you compare how the Oilers scored when the Centers were on the ice with him and then without him.

    There was an effect.

    What caused it, whether or not it will continue etc, is up for debate, but the results are the results.

    I agree with most of what you wrote.

  116. Bag of Pucks says:

    Thought Lucic played his best game of the season last night.

    Also saw some evidence that his teammates still haven’t figured out how to effectively leverage him sometimes. There was a couple plays by Oil D last night where passes were forced to him where his only option would’ve been to dangle past the D one on one.

    Looch is not a dangler. He’s a bull and absolutely unstoppable on the wall/cycle. Nine times out of ten, your best play with Looch is to chip it to the wall where he can establish possession to setup the half court offense.

    RNH is starting to figure this out. He’s realized that Milan being close to the defender is not a bad thing provided his stick is available to receive the pass, because that is where he can use his size advantage to bullrush and create mismatches. You’re seeing Nuge setup picks with Lucic now to give himself space, and he’s way less reluctant now to simply fire it board side to his LW. RNH is at heart a rush player, but watching him start to embrace this half-court game with it’s combination of brute force and positional nuance is a thing of beauty.

    Credit to TMac where it’s due, he waited long enough for this chemistry to develop. Now, why can’t he do the same with Connor and Strome?

  117. OriginalPouzar says:

    Stuaffer just said that there is a chance that Drake could be skating by the time the team gets back to Edmonton.

    I guess that means that he won’t be playing this weekend.

    So, given we know the top two lines (as coach said Puljijarvi will play in the top 6), I would assume we see this tomorrow morning:

    Maroon/McDavid/Drai
    Lucic/Nuge/Puljijarvi
    Jokinen/Strome/Kassian
    Pakarinan/Letestu/Malone

    I’d feel much more comfortable with Jokinen as 4LW and Drake as 3LW but we need to get healthy for that.

  118. Kinger_Oil.redux says:

    OriginalPouzar,

    – Please work out Pool: this is your chance: awesome linemates, team playing better, no one stepped up. You are rocky balboa in Bakersfield, running up mountains, chopping wood, misunderstood in a foreign country, lots to prove, all the talent and heart

  119. Side says:

    Chachi: I was having fun with it too. You are a confusing person to communicate with sometimes.

    Woodguy v2.0: Wow.

    I was honestly having fun with this whole thing.

    wouldn’t want you to hurt yourself.

    and I certainly didn’t expect a boilerplate insult.

    Stramanchi Boilerplate maybe?

    You could cut this sexual tension with a knife.

  120. OmJo says:

    stush18: Imo, people cannot separate the Hall trade with the lucic signing.

    He is, and always has been, one of the top producing LWs in the game, and has always carried the best possession numbers, even relative to his teams.

    Lucic still does not have an albatross contract, and I doubt he will by the end.

    His game hasn’t never been speed, and it’s never been about scoring goals.

    That’s because for the longest time people kept including him in the Hall trade to make it look better.

  121. Dicky94 says:

    OriginalPouzar,

    Can we swap JJ with Khaira?

  122. Pouzar says:

    Side:
    You could cut this sexual tension with a knife.

    I can’t unread that.

  123. Chachi says:

    Side:
    You could cut this sexual tension with a knife.

    HA!

  124. Bag of Pucks says:

    This is the argument right?

    Hall + Demers > Lucic + Larsson

    But if both Hall and Lucic average roughly 25 goals a season and 55 pts a season, wouldn’t Demers have to be at least equal to Larsson for that argument to hold? By my eye, Larsson is a considerable upgrade on Demers whereas Lucic from a straight boxcars pov is not a considerable downgrade on Hall. Emphasis on the word ‘considerable’ here. No one is suggesting Hall isn’t the better player.

    Now, appreciate that Hall is the possession driver and gets a big edge on Lucic on the fancies, and personally I much prefer Hall over Lucic in terms of where the game’s evolving.

    But I’m also cognizant of the fact that Hall will likely be a $10mil or more per player with his next deal.

    If Milan can maintain his average career boxcars and facilitate a viable 2nd line with RNH, the players out for players in ledger is starting to look more commensurate?

  125. Bag of Pucks says:

    Building on my previous post, it would be interesting to see where the conversation would’ve went post Hall trade if the FA Chiarelli had signed to replace Hall was an analytics darling instead of a polarizing figure like Lucic who clearly doesn’t fit the mold of fancies superstar.

    The argument of course is that the FA signing should’ve had no impact on the actual trade return itself. But I’ve always found that argument specious. The GM’s goal is to improve the overall hockey club, and particularly when there’s pressure to re-balance the roster quickly, a manager can rationalize a small loss on an individual trade if the cumulative activity balances or improves the overall portfolio. Hall out for Larsson and Lucic in was the end result at the end of the day.

    What if that week had been Hall for Larsson followed by signing a player like Duchene or Evander Kane instead. I daresay the analytics community might’ve more easily got onboard with that.

    Just a thought. Certainly not expecting to change any hearts on minds on this one.

  126. Kaptain Vikarious says:

    Chachi: You should change yours to Woodruf Thinskinington.

    Just Material AssH**e works.

  127. SayItAin'tSo, Gretz, SayItAin'tSo! says:

    Woodguy v2.0,

    This is my preferred lineup as well. I think that Lucic-Nuge-Drai line could be absolute fire. I think JP is the only person in the org who can keep up with McDavid speed wise and if he can land a few more of those tip passes that he made in preseaon look out!

    All that being said given what I’ve seen of JP this season in BK he may be more suited at this point in time to playing with Looch-Nuge because of how those two play once they gain the zone. JPs body and silky smooth hands could be very useful in close.

    Either way I think he’ll fit in well if he can keep his confidence up!

    JimmyV1965,

    Pouzar,

    Is this gifting a spot or putting a player in a place to succeed? I keep hearing from smart folks on this blog about JPs lack of offensive teamates in BK and for Fleming usage of him but when the NHL coach says “we’re gonna give him a great shot with offensive players” the reaction is “well he hasn’t earned that!”

    Tough position. Personally we drafted the kid to score goals and rack up points. Put him with the guys that know how to do that and see how he fairs.

    Its easy to drop him down a line, much harder to bring him up if he doesn’t catch fire the Strome in his first few games IMO.

    Bag of Pucks,

    Agreed across the board and this is an excellent summary of what I’ve been seeing but had a tough time articulating!

    Now the big question is who augments this Nuge-Looch awakening better? JP or Drai (in a perfect world of course). Personally I think both of them long-term can easily fill this role but right off the hop I give the nod to Drai. He’s just so good on his backhand and finding seems. Looch finally seems to be getting to the open areas close around the net and getting his stick on the ice, he’s shooting more and as you described he’s using his body/size very well. Nuge is waking up and had the dangle of a decade last night in OT. Put Drai in there and holy smokes I think you’re cooking with gas!

    But, in that scenario, is it wise to take your 19 year old prospect and put him up against the other teams best? He’s got good two-way acumen so I’m not as worried about JP in the defensive zone, nor do I worry about him on the rush but is his decision making up to that speed in the neutral zone and in the o-zone with McD while facing the best defenders on the oppo?

    As I wrote above, I think JP could also thrive in the style that Nuge_Looch are playing right now but that style is very much about those small tactics that Young Willis noted in his Athletic article the other day. Straight lines, stops and starts, lateral moves etc. I see Maroon-McD as a much more traditional North-South style.

    These are fun but difficult questions to be asking. The slotting of JP was one of the biggest internal debates I was having with myself before the season started. I have very high hopes for this kid and I think he will eventually live up to the billing. We’ll find out soon enough.

  128. Kinger_Oil.redux says:

    Bag of Pucks,

    – I like how you ask and think about questions: Your comfortable with the math, but try to put it in a larger context.

    – I would rather:
    McD
    Drai
    RNH
    Lucic
    Klef/Larson

    Than:
    McD
    Drai
    Hall
    Ebs
    Klef/Demers

    – It’s not even close IMO.

    – I think some people hoped for:
    McD
    Drai
    Hall
    Ebs
    RNH
    sh%t D

    – Can’t have everything…

  129. Bag of Pucks says:

    SayItAin’tSo, Gretz, SayItAin’tSo!,

    I think Lucic/RNH/Draisaitl could be an excellent line, but I’m holding out for Leon at 2C

    I think the strength of this roster is the C depth down the middle and I’d prefer to see TMac deploying his lineup accordingly.

    If RNH+Lucic are doing well now against tough opps, imagine how could they’ve been with more sheltered mins OR conversely a sheltered Leon/Maroon line with McDavid/Strome eating some tough opps and mins.

    Options baby! That’s what C depth is supposed to give you.

  130. Lowetide says:

    New at The Athletic: I wrote an article detailing all of Peter Chiarelli’s trades, giving a balanced critique on all of them. EVERYONE LOVED IT AND WE ALL AGREED!

    https://theathletic.com/151376/2017/11/10/up-and-down-peter-chiarellis-trades/

  131. Pink Socks says:

    Lowetide:
    New at The Athletic: I wrote an article detailing all of Peter Chiarelli’s trades, giving a balanced critique on all of them. EVERYONE LOVED IT AND WE ALL AGREED!

    https://theathletic.com/151376/2017/11/10/up-and-down-peter-chiarellis-trades/

    Fine work as always LT, I am already enjoying my subscription.

  132. Pink Socks says:

    This made me laugh:

    Peter Chiarelli‏
    @FakeOilersGM
    3h3 hours ago
    More
    Asked Jesse how his English was coming along. He flashed a big grin and enthusiastically answered, “one bowl of cereal and two bananas!”

  133. SayItAin'tSo, Gretz, SayItAin'tSo! says:

    Bag of Pucks,

    I agree wholeheartedly but at this exact moment I don’t think there is the skill across the lineup to slot Drai into 2C without sabotaging Nuge’s offensive resurgence.

    If all of Sleppy, Cagguila, JP and Strome were healthy I think we could cobble something together but I still worry about those players being able to do the heavy lifting against the other team’s 2Cs.

    I suppose one way would be to staple Looch-Drai and insert an RW, while giving Nuge some speed and skill at 3C maybe with Caggs-Strome as his LW-RW.

    And in reality this is unicorns if it all works out. That would be wave after wave of skill coming at you.

    I’d take it a bit slower for now though until we find out where JP will be spending his time and we get some of those injured bodies back.

  134. Pouzar says:

    Pink Socks:
    This made me laugh:

    Peter Chiarelli‏
    @FakeOilersGM
    3h3 hours ago
    More
    Asked Jesse how his English was coming along. He flashed a big grin and enthusiastically answered, “one bowl of cereal and two bananas!”

    LOL

  135. OmJo says:

    Bag of Pucks:
    This is the argument right?

    Hall + Demers > Lucic + Larsson

    But if both Hall and Lucic average roughly 25 goals a season and 55 pts a season, wouldn’t Demers have to be at least equal to Larsson for that argument to hold? By my eye, Larsson is a considerable upgrade on Demers whereas Lucic from a straight boxcars pov is not a considerable downgrade on Hall. Emphasis on the word ‘considerable’ here. No one is suggesting Hall isn’t the better player.

    Now, appreciate that Hall is the possession driver and gets a big edge on Lucic on the fancies,and personally I much prefer Hall over Lucic in terms of where the game’s evolving.

    But I’m also cognizant of the fact that Hall will likely be a $10mil or more per player with his next deal.

    If Milan can maintain his average career boxcars and facilitate a viable 2nd line with RNH, the players out for players in ledger is starting to look more commensurate?

    Hall in a bad year, where he is injured and plays less than 82gp is at least a 50pt player. Lucic in a good year where he plays all 82 gp is at most a 50pt player. Hall is on pace for 92 this season, Lucic 49.

    Won’t argue against Larsson > Demers. Though he does seem to be rebounding in Arizona after a slow start (8pts in his last 14gp).

    Do you think it would have been at all possible that, assuming Draisaitl played 2C or 2RW for Hall-Nuge rather than McDavid, that we could have signed Draisaitl at $6M/season and Hall at $8.5M/season? Perhaps McDavid takes a bigger “discount” to make it work or something. We’ll never know for sure. I don’t think Draisaitl commands $8.5M playing with Hall.

    Edit: fixed the post. Not sure what happened in the first paragraph.

  136. Pouzar says:

    SayItAin'tSo, Gretz, SayItAin'tSo!,

    Have to put him with skilled players. I am against the call up but if he’s gonna be here put him with McDavid and get his ass on the PP too.

  137. OriginalPouzar says:

    Lowetide:
    New at The Athletic: I wrote an article detailing all of Peter Chiarelli’s trades, giving a balanced critique on all of them. EVERYONE LOVED IT AND WE ALL AGREED!

    https://theathletic.com/151376/2017/11/10/up-and-down-peter-chiarellis-trades/

    I just saw this on twitter.

    Ugggh, i’m stressed, I can’t keep up with all this content.

    Still haven’t had a chance to read this morning’s content on The Athletic – and I decided to work from home today (still got up at 3:36am for the gym though).

  138. Jethro Tull says:

    Lowetide:
    New at The Athletic: I wrote an article detailing all of Peter Chiarelli’s trades, giving a balanced critique on all of them. EVERYONE LOVED IT AND WE ALL AGREED!

    https://theathletic.com/151376/2017/11/10/up-and-down-peter-chiarellis-trades/

    Everyone agreed? Well that’s boring. How are you ever going to have your preconceptions challenged?

  139. Pouzar says:

    Ryan Holt (@CondorsHolty) · Twitter

    https://twitter.com/CondorsHolty

    Tucson’s top line tonight of Crouse-Strome-Merkley all first round draft picks. Ferlin & Platzer will play with Ellis starting.

  140. Pouzar says:

    Lowetide: EVERYONE LOVED IT AND WE ALL AGREED!

    You need New Old friends!

  141. OmJo says:

    Bag of Pucks:
    SayItAin’tSo, Gretz, SayItAin’tSo!,

    I think Lucic/RNH/Draisaitl could be an excellent line, but I’m holding out for Leon at 2C

    I think the strength of this roster is the C depth down the middle and I’d prefer to see TMac deploying his lineup accordingly.

    If RNH+Lucic are doing well now against tough opps, imagine how could they’ve been with more sheltered mins OR conversely a sheltered Leon/Maroon line with McDavid/Strome eating some tough opps and mins.

    Options baby! That’s what C depth is supposed to give you.

    Was curious so I looked at faceoffs.

    Draisaitl 178, 52.2%
    McDavid 127, 40.2%
    Nugent-Hopkins 232, 52.6%

    Last season

    Draisaitl 972, 49.0%
    McDavid 806, 43.2%
    Nugent-Hopkins 1268, 43.8%

    Does TMac keep them together for faceoffs, among other things?

    McDavid seems to take mostly Nzone FOs (66 to Drais 40), while Draisaitl handles the Ozone (84 to McDavids 31!) and Dzone faceoffs (54 to McDavids 30).

    Also, Nuge is 80% on PP faceoffs!

    Edit: If Draisaitl is taken off the top line, whos taking all those faceoffs? Seems TMac is sheltering McDavid from faceoffs.

  142. hunter1909 says:

    RNH is developing into the Oilers Jacques Lemaire. A non flashy hockey player that gets the job done.

  143. OmJo says:

    Jethro Tull,

    Agreed. These people are clearly a bad influence and up to no good.

  144. Chachi says:

    Lowetide:
    New at The Athletic: I wrote an article detailing all of Peter Chiarelli’s trades, giving a balanced critique on all of them. EVERYONE LOVED IT AND WE ALL AGREED!

    https://theathletic.com/151376/2017/11/10/up-and-down-peter-chiarellis-trades/

    Pullitzer and Nobel Peace Prize to follow.

  145. SwedishPoster says:

    Romulus Apotheosis:
    Last year a full 1/3 and 1/2 of Draisaitl and Lucic’s points came on PP.

    This year neither has a single point on the PP yet.

    At evens things are going perhaps better than one has a right to expect and on the PP things are going much worse.

    Pretty crazy that Draisatl is above ppg with no points on the PP. Bodes well for his production this season. Also bodes well that he keeps producing without playing all that well these last few games, both him and McDavid have been differentmakers without bringing their A game, that’s usually one of the main things seperate the good offensive players and the elite ones. The ability to be productive when they aren’t playing their best.
    We know McDavid could do it, it’s a nice sign that Draisatl looks like he can do it as well.

    Two straight games where Lucic has played as good as we’ve seen him in Oil silks. Hope it continues.
    His slow boots is an issue in transition and primarily on the backcheck where he just can’t keep up. His strength other than, uh, strength is positioning and particularly in the offensive zone. He’s often to be found in good spots offensively and he has enough skill to make and finish plays. My main issue with him in his Oilers career so far is that he hasn’t been sharp when using that skill. He was never going to fly over the ice but what he can’t do is throwing away pucks to noone, give away pucks easily and miss a lot of great scoring chances. He’s so strong on the puck he shouldn’t be forced to make as many seemingly stressed low percentage plays as he has so far as an Oiler. Hopefully the last games are an indicator things are turning in the right direction.

  146. SayItAin'tSo, Gretz, SayItAin'tSo! says:

    OmJo,

    This is a good point!

    My guess would be that lines 1 and 2 would become indistinguishable should Drai be moved down with Nuge on a matching basis (not that TMac is a big matcher to begin with).

    Maybe give Nuge-Drai the Dzone start edge?

  147. Woodguy v2.0 says:

    Bag of Pucks,

    By my eye, Larsson is a considerable upgrade on Demers

    I’ve watched every ARI game this year and around 20 FLA games last year.

    I don’t see that at all.

    As far as puck moving goes, Larsson isn’t in the same category as Demers.

    Larsson is better in tight to the goal (Usually, was pretty weak on NJD’s 1st goal last night)

    Different players with different skill sets.

  148. Woodguy v2.0 says:

    Kaptain Vikarious: Just Material AssH**e works.

    Asshat doesn’t have and “e” at the end.

    I’m here to help.

  149. calgaryoilbaron says:

    “When they were losing, the possession numbers shone like a diamond.”

    Exactly the evidence against the validity of “possession numbers”.

    To quote Inigo Montoya, “you keep using that word. I do not think it means what you think it means.”

    They simply don’t measure what everyone seems to think they measure.

  150. Kaptain Vikarious says:

    Woodguy v2.0,

    As always Last WordGuy, you’re right.

    Asshat doesn’t.

  151. OmJo says:

    SayItAin’tSo, Gretz, SayItAin’tSo!:
    OmJo,

    This is a good point!

    My guess would be that lines 1 and 2 would become indistinguishable should Drai be moved down with Nuge on a matching basis (not that TMac is a big matcher to begin with).

    Maybe give Nuge-Drai the Dzone start edge?

    I’m thinking we’ll be seeing one of Letestu, Nuge or Draisaitl out there just for DZone faceoffs in certain situations.

  152. Eastern Oil says:

    Lowetide:
    New at The Athletic: I wrote an article detailing all of Peter Chiarelli’s trades, giving a balanced critique on all of them. EVERYONE LOVED IT AND WE ALL AGREED!

    https://theathletic.com/151376/2017/11/10/up-and-down-peter-chiarellis-trades/

    Whew! Glad we got that out of the way! What should we talk about now?

  153. hunter1909 says:

    Eastern Oil: Whew! Glad we got that out of the way!What should we talk about now?

    Lowe+MacT?

  154. SayItAin'tSo, Gretz, SayItAin'tSo! says:

    OmJo,

    Yup very true.

    Oilers website saying that JP likely to slot in with Nuge-Looch.

    Personally I think this is the best introduction for him.

    Two offensive players, Nuge coming close to “line driver,” and Looch coming into his own in the O-zone.

    I think if they are given time JP will end up being the entry man on rushes, he’s very fast and given the style of the other two it won’t be a necessity for him to create right off the bat. He can wrap it around or place it down low and Looch can go to work. He just needs to get open and have some fun.

    Keeping CmD-Drai together should keep the very best away from JP as well. A little shelter can go a long way.

    SwedishPoster,

    Good points. The numbers tell me the Oilers are 2nd last in the league in PPOs. They would need an extra 10 penalties drawn in order to climb into “middle of the pack”

    My spider senses tell me that we will see the PPOs spike once they start playing more Western Conference teams.

    The East is a fast conference, no question but the Oilers are faster and on paper more skilled than most western conference teams, especially in the Pacific IMO.

    I expect the PPO’s to climb as they play more Western opponents and the PP percentage will come up as the guys gain confidence.

    Team needs to keep up the good vibes

  155. Woodguy v2.0 says:

    Bag of Pucks,

    Building on my previous post, it would be interesting to see where the conversation would’ve went post Hall trade if the FA Chiarelli had signed to replace Hall was an analytics darling instead of a polarizing figure like Lucic who clearly doesn’t fit the mold of fancies superstar

    This doesn’t make much sense.

    Lucic was never derided for his analytics or by the fancystats communuity.

  156. GMB3 says:

    Kinger_Oil.redux:
    stush18,

    – It is interesting the hate on Lucic, based on a strong PP year last year, and this year good 5×5, but so ready to pounce on a small sample size

    – Ryan Smith was a garbage skater, garbage shooter, didn’t hit, not much of a psser or carrier of the puck, good boards though.Lucic can plant himself in front of the net way better than Smytty can, and is a much better hockey player.Smytty was effective in the scoring department with way less skill than Lucic well into his 30’s…

    Lucic better than Smytty? Not sure about that. Smyth was a better skater, didn’t give up the puck nearly as much. Much better bet front precense. This is a ridiculous take

  157. Bag of Pucks says:

    OmJo: Hall in a bad year, where he is injured and plays less than 82gp is at least a 50pt player. Lucic in a good year where he plays all 82 gp is at most a 50pt player. Hall is on pace for 92 this season, Lucic 49.

    In 5 of his last 7 seasons, Lucic has posted 50 or more points (50, 55, 59, 61, 62). It doesn’t appear to be a point total he’s unfamiliar with.

  158. Bag of Pucks says:

    Woodguy v2.0:
    Bag of Pucks,

    By my eye, Larsson is a considerable upgrade on Demers

    I’ve watched every ARI game this year and around 20 FLA games last year.

    I don’t see that at all.

    As far as puck moving goes, Larsson isn’t in the same category as Demers.

    Larsson is better in tight to the goal (Usually, was pretty weak on NJD’s 1st goal last night)

    Different players with different skill sets.

    Is Demers currently ARI’s defacto 1D?

  159. Chachi says:

    Bag of Pucks: In 5 of his last 7 seasons, Lucic has posted 50 or more points (50, 55, 59, 61, 62). It doesn’t appear to be a point total he’s unfamiliar with.

    That’s an awful lot of “good years” for Lucic. Lucky guy.

  160. jtblack says:

    Woodguy v2.0,

    Random request Everyone talks about the Top teams having the deadly q – 2 down the middle.

    Curious what the P/60 for all teams top 2C. I know its not perfect but for 20 – 25 teams they clearly have 2 top C’s.

    Curious where McD and RNH fall. also curious to see Malkin / Croz as they are the “poster boyz” for deadly 1C followed by nearly as deadly 2C.

    Love Nash now with RYJO – TURRIS.

  161. Lloyd B. says:

    Kaptain Vikarious:
    Woodguy v2.0,

    As always Last WordGuy, you’re right.

    Asshat doesn’t.

    It is exchanges like this throughout this thread that will lead to the ultimate demise of the blog. We are standing at the beginning of the end.

    We have been repeatedly asked to keep the conversations civil with respect to one another. We could mind our manners for a bit but the urge to piss on one another is just too great. And that is with LT riding shotgun.

    Without Dad continually peering over our shoulders, I set the over/ under at 3 months that we will self destruct. No matter the format LT ultimately decides going forward.

    The best way to kill a snake is to cut its head off. I suspect the best way to kill a championship caliber blog is to have the head cut itself off.

    A shame really, but it was great while it lasted. CHEERS!

  162. GMB3 says:

    Woodguy v2.0:
    Bag of Pucks,

    Building on my previous post, it would be interesting to see where the conversation would’ve went post Hall trade if the FA Chiarelli had signed to replace Hall was an analytics darling instead of a polarizing figure like Lucic who clearly doesn’t fit the mold of fancies superstar

    This doesn’t make much sense.

    Lucic was never derided for his analytics or by the fancystats communuity.

    If anything, the opposite. Iirc he’s been a possession monster most of his career. If anything his flaws are of the eye test kind. IE throwing the puck blindly to the middle of the ice, not supporting the puck or reading the play effectively when an Oilers dman pinches. That and being really, really slow out there.

  163. Kaptain Vikarious says:

    Lloyd B.,

    You are right, My apologies.

  164. Woodguy v2.0 says:

    Bag of Pucks: Is Demers currently ARI’s defacto 1D?

    He’s 1RD w/ OEL.

    If OEL went down he would be.

    If he were in the same situation as Larsson is in he’d be playing Nurse as well.

  165. David says:

    Woodguy v2.0: I’m not looking at individual production, but team production when individuals are on the ice.

    Players can help create goals and not get points.

    Players can be a drag on goals and get lots of points (comparatively)

    That’s why I don’t think using points is a great way to measure offensive contribution.

    Goals Scored while on the ice measures it well imo and can catch some data that points don’t.

    Its all about outscoring the opposition and with McDavid this team needs him to out score at a high rate to cover the roster deficiencies like he did last year.

    The “drag” comment is when you compare how the Oilers scored when the Centers were on the ice with him and then without him.

    There was an effect.

    What caused it, whether or not it will continue etc, is up for debate, but the results are the results.

    I agree with most of what you wrote.

    Isn’t this literally just the + from +/-?

    I was under the impression that the consensus from those who are stats inclined is that +/- was a poor stat because a.) not large enough sample size, and b.) the recognition that a player on the ice can have no effect on the goal that was scored and be credited with a positive stat and someone who did their job to the letter can be credited a negative stat.

    You are now going against that flow?

    And if this is the new line of thinking can people (not directed at you) please stop downplaying secondary assists? It irks me to no end that a player who gets a secondary assist when we review their boxcars gets that point discredited and the offence that they posted is called into question. Then in the same sequence that shot attempt that was the goal gives that player an uptick in Corsi which improves their possession numbers which in turn makes them a better offensive player.

    Apologies for the somewhat out of place rant it just really bugs me when people downplay secondary assists.

  166. OriginalPouzar says:

    I am not nearly as excited to keep up to date of the box score and shot metrics of the Barons game tonight as I was first thing this morning.

    Thankfully, I’ve got Safin, Benson, Yamamoto and Skinner to keep track of.

    I checked the other day and Spokane doesn’t come to Calgary again this year which is disappointing – I could got to Lethbridge to see Kailer play but that does seem like a lot of work for a guy that is so regimented.

  167. OmJo says:

    Bag of Pucks: In 5 of his last 7 seasons, Lucic has posted 50 or more points (50, 55, 59, 61, 62). It doesn’t appear to be a point total he’s unfamiliar with.

    Fair point.

    Those 60 point seasons came in 2010-11, and 2011-12. I’ll give him 2013-14, he had 59pts in 80gp. The Lucic back then isn’t the Lucic of today.

    Last season, he had 50pts in 82gp. This season, he’s on pace for 49pts in 82gp. In LA, he had 55pts in 81gp. We don’t see the LA or Bruin Lucic enough for me to confidently say he’ll post up another mid-50 point season.

    Let’s look at Halls past 7 seasons (Lucic in brackets):

    2010/11 42pt in 65gp, 0.65ppg (62pt in 79gp, 0.78ppg)
    2011/12 53pt in 61gp, 0.87ppg (61pt in 81gp, 0.75ppg)
    2012/13 50pt in 45gp, 1.11ppg (27pt in 46gp, 0.59ppg)
    2013/14 80pt in 75gp, 1.07ppg (59pt in 80gp, 0.74ppg)
    2014/15 38pt in 53gp, 0.72ppg (44pt in 81gp, 0.54ppg)
    2015/16 65pt in 82gp, 0.79ppg (55pt in 81gp, 0.68ppg)

    2016/17 53pt in 72gp, 0.74ppg (50pt in 82gp, 0.61ppg)
    2017/18 17pt in 15gp, 1.13ppg (9pt in 15gp, 0.60ppg)

    The two just aren’t equal offensively, I’m sorry.

    Even last year on a significantly worse team Hall outscored Lucic with no McDavid minutes in 11 less games.

    Hall in a bad year, where he is injured and plays less than 82gp is at least a 50pt player. Lucic in a good year where he plays all 82 gp is at most a 50pt player.

    Maybe I should have said at most a 55pt player for Lucic, but I don’t see how anything I said was wrong based on their recent – and current – performance.

  168. OmJo says:

    SayItAin'tSo, Gretz, SayItAin'tSo!,

    Good post. Tbh I’m excited to see what that line can do. If they get going we are definitely back in the playoff picture (I’m trying to keep myself reserved despite the current OTW streak).

  169. leadfarmer says:

    Woodguy v2.0: He’s 1RD w/ OEL.

    If OEL went down he would be.

    If he were in the same situation as Larsson is in he’d be playing Nurse as well.

    The defensive partner of a #1 defenseman is not necessarily the #2 guy. He has less even strength time on ice than Goligoski and the same as Hjalmarsson. He is one of their 2-4 guys.

  170. SwedishPoster says:

    Filip Berglund is back on the ice and is practising with the team, should be able to go in the first game back after the current break for international games(Sweden beat Canada today 2-0, 17 yo Rasmus Dahlin had his first NT point, and yes that’s the men’s NT, he will probably make the Olympic team. He looks amazing even in international games).
    Lagesson got back from his injury already before the break and played 17:30 and 19:20 in the first games back.

  171. OriginalPouzar says:

    SwedishPoster:
    Filip Berglund is back on the ice and is practising with the team, should be able to go in the first game back after the current break for international games(Sweden beat Canada today 2-0, 17 yo Rasmus Dahlin had his first NT point, and yes that’s the men’s NT, he will probably make the Olympic team. He looks amazing even in international games).
    Lagesson got back from his injury already before the break and played 17:30 and 19:20 in the first games back.

    That’s great news, I was just asking about these two earlier today.

  172. OmJo says:

    leadfarmer,

    Goligoski has more 5v5 toi/game, but Demers sees more PP and PK time. He has more total TOI than Goligoski as a result.

  173. Scungilli Slushy says:

    I like Maroon. I like his effort in changing his career, and now he should get a nice payday if he’s smart and never punch a clock again.

    If the keepers are McD Drai and I think now Yama, Nuge is certainly the best forward left. Lucic can’t go. It would be another skill drain and needless to not keep Nuge.

    He can play wing and rotate into centre, back up or take faceoffs, be F1, PP witch, and most of all can skate at the new level needed. He’s young and under control and his contract is value if he’s also scoring enough.

    Nuge McD JP

    Lucic Drai Yama

    Your 2018 top 6. The only question is can JP play well if he’s not the primary puck carrier on his line? Some lines don’t work if everybody wants to rag the puck. Nuge played with Hall so I think he’d be ok.

  174. OmJo says:

    Scungilli Slushy,

    Hopefully by the time Nuges contract comes up, if he prices himself out of Edmonton, Benson will be ready to fill his spot in the top 6.

    Benson-McDavid-Yamamoto.

    Whew.

  175. Georges says:

    OmJo,

    “Hall in a bad year, where he is injured and plays less than 82gp is at least a 50pt player. Lucic in a good year where he plays all 82 gp is at most a 50pt player.

    Maybe I should have said at most a 55pt player for Lucic, but I don’t see how anything I said was wrong based on their recent – and current – performance.”

    Things you said that are wrong:

    – You used “bad year” and “good year” to refer to both games played and points.

    – From your data, a year in which Hall doesn’t play close to 82 games isn’t a “bad year.” It’s a typical year.

    – From your data, a year in which Lucic plays close to 82 games isn’t a “good year.” It’s a typical year.

    – You originally said Hall is at least a 50 points player (in his “bad” years) while Lucic is at most a 50 points player (in his “good” years).

    – Then you produced data that showed that Lucic has reached or exceeded 50 points in 5 of 7 completed seasons including the shortened 2012-13 season. And Hall has fallen short of 50 points in 2 of 7 completed seasons.

    – You revised the ceiling to 55 points for Lucic but you didn’t similarly adjust the floor for Hall. You can’t make the comparison you’re trying to make (Lucic in a good year = Hall in a bad year) without setting the same threshold for both.

    – If you do that, your data shows that Lucic met or exceeded the 55 point threshold in 4 of 7 completed seasons. And Hall failed to meet or exceed the 55 point threshold in 5 of 7 completed seasons.

    As an aside, from 2010-11 to 2016-17, according to nhl.com, Taylor Hall had 284 even strength (non-PP and non-PK) points. Milan Lucic had 278.

  176. Lowetide says:

    SwedishPoster:
    Filip Berglund is back on the ice and is practising with the team, should be able to go in the first game back after the current break for international games(Sweden beat Canada today 2-0, 17 yo Rasmus Dahlin had his first NT point, and yes that’s the men’s NT, he will probably make the Olympic team. He looks amazing even in international games).
    Lagesson got back from his injury already before the break and played 17:30 and 19:20 in the first games back.

    This is so appreciated, SP.

  177. Woodguy v2.0 says:

    leadfarmer: The defensive partner of a #1 defenseman is not necessarily the #2 guy.He has less even strength time on ice than Goligoski and the same as Hjalmarsson.He is one of their 2-4 guys.

    He’s their 2nd best Dman.

    Goligoski has struggled a lot and Hlarm looks done.

  178. Georges says:

    Kinger_Oil.redux,

    “– I think a lot of people aren’t giving McL his due. I think he values RNH a lot. I think he knows that the way to force Chia to keep him is as the #2C, and keep McD and Drai together”

    This is hard to understand. Has PC been trading away players that McL wanted to keep? Can you suggest one such player? I ask because I can’t.

    That plan is more evil than genius.

  179. Doug McLachlan says:

    Clay:
    So the verbal around Maroon re-signing – that talks were on but now it’s crickets – may have as much to do with RNH’s renaissance this fall as anything else.

    I think the assumption was that RNH would have to go this year for cap reasons.Maybe, if he’s showing how valuable he can be at both ends of the ice, Chia is now trying to find ways to fit him in next year.At a minimum it would mean Maroon would be unaffordable, and then at least one other thing would need to break.I’d bet he’d love a mulligan on the Russell deal right now.

    Chia may have already build in his mulligan on the Russell deal.

    Look at the actual cap hit should Russell be bought out next summer:

    https://www.capfriendly.com/buyout_calculator/kris-russell

    Not an ideal solution but knowing that there is only $611K and $1.111M cap hits on a buyout for the next two years may give Chia some flexibility, if needed, over the next two years.

  180. Georges says:

    Woodguy v2.0,

    “Its all about outscoring the opposition…”

    And, yet, no data on outscoring the opposition in your analysis…?

  181. OmJo says:

    Georges,

    Things you said that are wrong:
    – You used “bad year” and “good year” to refer to both games played and points.
    – From your data, a year in which Hall doesn’t play close to 82 games isn’t a “bad year.” It’s a typical year.
    – From your data, a year in which Lucic plays close to 82 games isn’t a “good year.” It’s a typical year.

    Lol. Arguing semantics.

    – You originally said Hall is at least a 50 points player (in his “bad” years) while Lucic is at most a 50 points player (in his “good” years).

    – Then you produced data that showed that Lucic has reached or exceeded 50 points in 5 of 7 completed seasons including the shortened 2012-13 season. And Hall has fallen short of 50 points in 2 of 7 completed seasons.

    The data I produced was in response to BoG bringing up Lucics’ past. I’m talking about Oiler Lucic, not Boston Lucic from 6-7 years ago.

    – You revised the ceiling to 55 points for Lucic but you didn’t similarly adjust the floor for Hall. You can’t make the comparison you’re trying to make (Lucic in a good year = Hall in a bad year) without setting the same threshold for both.
    – If you do that, your data shows that Lucic met or exceeded the 55 point threshold in 4 of 7 completed seasons. And Hall failed to meet or exceed the 55 point threshold in 5 of 7 completed seasons.

    This is so reaching rn. You can’t compare a season where Hall has a significantly higher PPG than Lucic and try to say Lucic is better player offensively because 5 out 7 seasons he got past a points threshold convenient for him.

    As an aside, from 2010-11 to 2016-17, according to nhl.com, Taylor Hall had 284 even strength (non-PP and non-PK) points. Milan Lucic had 278.

    More reaching. Erasing Halls PP production to try and make Lucic look equal. Why not mention the games played for those career stats? 744 to Halls 468.

    C’mon now. This shouldn’t even be a debate…

  182. Georges says:

    OriginalPouzar,

    “Maybe disrespectful is the wrong word but I’d prefer of the fan-base would discuss the team with a bit more class, personally.”

    By class, do you mean a generally positive and optimistic attitude toward the players and management?

    Great! I’m in.

    In fact, I’ll start.

    I think McLellan is capable of more than he has shown with his decision-making. But, what do I know? I’m just a fan.

    Your turn.

    How do you materially feel about Russell and Lucic?

  183. Georges says:

    OmJo,

    “C’mon now. This shouldn’t even be a debate…”

    It’s not a debate. I was straightening out your argument. Your numbers didn’t match your words.

    (How did Lucic play 744 games in 7 seasons?)

  184. OriginalPouzar says:

    Doug McLachlan: Chia may have already build in his mulligan on the Russell deal.

    Look at the actual cap hit should Russell be bought out next summer:

    https://www.capfriendly.com/buyout_calculator/kris-russell

    Not an ideal solution but knowing that there is only $611K and $1.111M cap hits on a buyout for the next two years may give Chia some flexibility, if needed, over the next two years.

    It may have to be bought out – too bad there is the one year where it doesn’t provide any material cap savings. I know everyone is assuming a lockout but you never know.

  185. OriginalPouzar says:

    Georges:
    OriginalPouzar,

    “Maybe disrespectful is the wrong word but I’d prefer of the fan-base would discuss the team with a bit more class, personally.”

    By class, do you mean a generally positive and optimistic attitude toward the players and management?

    Great! I’m in.

    In fact, I’ll start.

    I think McLellan is capable of more than he has shown with his decision-making. But, what do I know? I’m just a fan.

    Your turn.

    How do you materially feel about Russell and Lucic?

    I believe your post is tongue in cheek but I will respond in any event.

    No, it doesn’t mean positivism and optimism only – clearly criticism can be provided but it can be done in a way without calling other people “idiots” and the like.

    Yes, I speak bad about Russell’s play on the right side and on the contract that Chia signed him too but you don’t see me calling any other person names – I am, after all, an adult.

  186. OmJo says:

    Georges:
    OmJo,

    “C’mon now. This shouldn’t even be a debate…”

    It’s not a debate. I was straightening out your argument. Your numbers didn’t match your words.

    (How did Lucic play 744 games in 7 seasons?)

    Working now so will respond in my break (few hours).

  187. Georges says:

    OriginalPouzar: I believe your post is tongue in cheek but I will respond in any event.

    No, it doesn’t mean positivism and optimism only – clearly criticism can be provided but it can be done in a way without calling other people “idiots” and the like.

    Yes, I speak bad about Russell’s play on the right side and on the contract that Chia signed him too but you don’t see me calling any other person names – I am, after all, an adult.

    I try to avoid posting negative comments on the players. I talked down Lander a lot last season. Didn’t feel that great in the end. I’ve realized it’s difficult for me to root for just some of our players or feel good because some bad play on their part proved my thinking right. I believe that’s called a pyrrhic victory. But I get the criticism part because with data, you start to see that some patterns lead to success and some patterns are associated with failure. And you want to speak out on that. It’s a dilemma.

  188. Georges says:

    OmJo: Working now so will respond in my break (few hours).

    No worries.

    Not sure when you started posting. I started around this time last year. Went through the Lucic-Hall thing before. It doesn’t interest me that much really. Occasionally I’ll defend Lucic (a player who plays for the Oilers) when he’s compared unfavorably to Hall (a player who doesn’t play for the Oilers). Particularly when there are numbers involved. But, as everyone on this board comes to understand at some point, people will think what they think. The best proof of a player being good is good play by the player. So I cheer for that.

  189. N64 says:

    hunter1909:
    RNH is developing into the Oilers Jacques Lemaire. A non flashy hockey player that gets the job done.

    Given that’s he’s tied for team lead in goal scoring, I’d like to throw out a startling reference. He’s looking Keonesque. Why didn’t anyone warn us?

  190. Kinger_Oil.redux says:

    GMB3: Lucic better than Smytty? Not sure about that. Smyth was a better skater, didn’t give up the puck nearly as much. Much better bet front precense. This is a ridiculous take

    – I don’t think there are reports of Smytty being a plus skater. He was a hard-working, scoring winger and grinder. Had lots of sandpaper. Shot was garbage. Slower skater than me.

    – Lucic hs more skill and I think can age just as well as Smytty, and be as effective as smytty who was still good well into his 30’s

  191. Kinger_Oil.redux says:

    Georges:
    Kinger_Oil.redux,

    “– I think a lot of people aren’t giving McL his due. I think he values RNH a lot. I think he knows that the way to force Chia to keep him is as the #2C, and keep McD and Drai together”

    This is hard to understand. Has PC been trading away players that McL wanted to keep? Can you suggest one such player? I ask because I can’t.

    That plan is more evil than genius.

    – I think Chia would have Drai playing 2C now (he’s said as much)

    – If he heeded to Chia, RNH would be our #3C, Strome would be McD’s winger, and RNH would be underwhelming and gone

    – McD-Strome, Drai-Lucic probably works well, but RNH is showing how good he is as 2C.

    – That’s McL coaching and making it hard for Chia to trade him.

    – The way McL plays RNH tells me he values him a lot more than he did Ebs or Hall

  192. who says:

    Kinger_Oil.redux: – I don’t think there are reports of Smytty being a plus skater.He was a hard-working, scoring winger and grinder.Had lots of sandpaper.Shot was garbage.Slower skater than me.

    – Lucic hs more skill and I think can age just as well as Smytty, and be as effective as smytty who was still good well into his 30’s

    As I recall Smith was a better skater and puck handler than Lucic.
    I don’t think speed is the issue with Lucic. He is never going to be a fast skater but when he gets going in a straight line he can keep up. I do think he is a little quicker this year.
    The issue with Lucic is that he has zero agility. The man can’t turn. And he has trouble holding on to pucks in traffic. Stone hands.
    For all the talk about how good he is along the boards and cycling the puck he seems to lose the puck an awful lot in those situations
    In my mind he’s a 3 mil per year player, maybe 4 mil if you believe in the fear factor. He certainly doesn’t warrant a 7 year investment.

  193. jimmers2 says:

    N64: Given that’s he’s tied for team lead in goal scoring, I’d like to throw out a startling reference. He’s looking Keonesque. Why didn’t anyone warn us?

    Heh! Thats a great line.

  194. Woodguy v2.0 says:

    Kinger_Oil.redux,

    – The way McL plays RNH tells me he values him a lot more than he did Ebs or Hall

    Every single game Hall played for McLellan he was sent out against the other team’s best.

  195. OmJo says:

    Georges:
    OmJo,

    “C’mon now. This shouldn’t even be a debate…”

    It’s not a debate. I was straightening out your argument. Your numbers didn’t match your words.

    (How did Lucic play 744 games in 7 seasons?)

    First, he didn’t play 744 games in 7 seasons. Missed the 7 season part of your post. To be clear, I didn’t bring up this 7 seasons thing. It was a number BoG came up with. It was never part of my initial point, it was added as a way to try and justify saying Lucic and Hall are equal offensively.

    Secondly, if my math is right, Lucic played 580 games, scored 358 total points. Hall played 453 games in that same time, scoring 381pts. So the discrepancy is still extreme. Lucic has played over 100 more games than Hall and has more points.

    Georges: No worries.

    Not sure when you started posting. I started around this time last year. Went through the Lucic-Hall thing before. It doesn’t interest me that much really. Occasionally I’ll defend Lucic (a player who plays for the Oilers) when he’s compared unfavorably to Hall (a player who doesn’t play for the Oilers). Particularly when there are numbers involved. But, as everyone on this board comes to understand at some point, people will think what they think. The best proof of a player being good is good play by the player. So I cheer for that.

    I started reading in the last few months of 15-16, but didn’t post much until after the playoffs ended. I’m not even trying to hate on Lucic here.

    I was responding to BoG, saying Hall + Demers > Lucic + Larsson might not be so because Hall and Lucic produce the same amount of points. Oiler Lucic maxes out at 50ish points, IMO. His statistics last year and even this year are proving that, so far.. Devils Hall has a much higher ceiling than 50pts.

  196. Gret99zky says:

    I know it’s petty but I wish JP would have chosen a number that wasn’t 98.

  197. Bag of Pucks says:

    Woodguy v2.0:
    Kinger_Oil.redux,

    – The way McL plays RNH tells me he values him a lot more than he did Ebs or Hall

    Every single game Hall played for McLellan he was sent out against the other team’s best.

    Pretty impressive when quantified in that way. WG mic drop.

  198. Bag of Pucks says:

    Kinger_Oil.redux:
    Bag of Pucks

    – I would rather:
    McD
    Drai
    RNH
    Lucic
    Klef/Larson

    Than:
    McD
    Drai
    Hall
    Ebs
    Klef/Demers

    – It’s not even close IMO.

    – I think some people hoped for:
    McD
    Drai
    Hall
    Ebs
    RNH
    sh%t D

    – Can’t have everything…

    Ton of substance in that tidy post. Totally agree.

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