Running Up That Hill

The Edmonton Oilers won in Boston to end a frustrating and eventful road trip, and now wind their way back home for games against Arizona and Toronto. Sometimes you lose a player or two on a road trip, maybe this trip saw the Oilers rediscover a few good men.

THE ATHLETIC

The special Lowetide offer is here. Today’s story looks at a deadline selloff and what it could mean for Edmonton.

DIRTY WATER, YEAR OVER YEAR

  • Oilers in November 2015: 4-7-2, goal differential -9 (10 poins in 13 games)
  • Oilers in November 2016: 5-8-1, goal differential -1
  • Oilers in November 2017: 6-7-1, goal differential -4

A big win for McLellan’s best November team in Edmonton and not a moment too soon. Sometimes an organization makes a move out of desperation and it’s a mistake, we don’t know how serious these Nuge talks were (and or are) but it’s good to have something positive to talk about today.

AFTER 24, YEAR OVER YEAR

  • Oilers 15-16: 8-14-2, goal differential -13
  • Oilers 16-17: 12-10-2, goal differential +7
  • Oilers 17-18: 9-13-2, goal differential -14

Edmonton is up to 20 points in 24 games, trailing last year’s total by six (two points ahead of 2015-16). The club has a chance to win two regulation games in a row for the first time this season against the Coyotes.

WHAT TO EXPECT FROM NOVEMBER

  • At home to: Pittsburgh, New Jersey, Detroit (Expected: 2-1-0) (Actual 1-2-0)
  • On the road to: NYI, New Jersey, NYR, Washington (Expected: 1-2-1) (Actual: 2-1-1)
  • At home to: Vegas, St. Louis (Expected 1-1-0) (Actual: 1-1-0)
  • On the road to: Dallas, St. Louis, Detroit, Buffalo, Boston (Expected 2-2-1) (Actual 2-3-0)
  • At home to: Arizona, Toronto (Expected 1-1-0) (Actual 0-0-0)
  • Overall expected result: 7-7-2, 16 points in 16 games 
  • Current results: 6-7-1, 13 points in 14 games

I’m pleased to see the predicted totals remain possible, if the team can go 1-0-1 at home they will go 7-7-2. It isn’t going to get them into the playoffs but at least the chaos is predictable.

DEFENSE, LAST NIGHT

  • Klefbom-Benning went 12-7, 1-0 GF. Went 8-2 against DeBrusk-Krejci-Vatrano. Oscar doesn’t wheel like he can unless he’s with Larsson, but Benning has no problem stepping up with any partner. Eventually, they’re going to have to put the Swedes together in order to unlock Klef.
  • Auvitu-Russell went 9-8, the pairing was on the ice together for 14 minutes. Went 6-4 against the Schaller-Acciari-Szwarz trio, the Bruins have 1,200 rookies.
  • Nurse-Larsson went 16-19 in 18:58 together. Went 5-6 in eight minutes with Connor McDavid’s line, went 7-7 against Heinen-Bergeron-Pastrnak. Pairing had nine defensive zone and two offensive zone faceoffs (10 neutral).
  • Cam Talbot stopped 23 of 25, .920.
  • NaturalStatTrick and NHL.com.

FORWARDS, LAST NIGHT

  • Maroon-Nuge-Slepyshev went 15-10 together, I really liked the line. Not sure Slepy is 100 percent but the trio impressed. Maroon scored a goal from Kassian. Nuge went 12-2 against DeBrusk-Krejci-Vatrano. Trading Nuge would be batshit crazy.
  • Caggiula-Draisaitl-Strome showed some chem together, went 10-8 and were 5-5 against Schaller-Acciari-Szwarz. Great pass by Leon and shot by Strome.
  • Lucic-McDavid-Cammalleri went 10-8 together, 5-6 against Heinen-Bergeron-Pastrnak. McDavid was 10-11 against Zdeno Chara who should have been charged with mugging.
  • Pakarinen-Letestu-Kassian went 4-8 together, 3-2 against Schaller-Acciari-Szwarz. Spent a lot of time without the puck.

OBSERVATIONS

The fourth line and the third pairing need some upgrading but the rest of last night’s roster looks like they are capable. If Todd McLellan inserts Jujhar Khaira for Iiro Pakarinen and finds a role for Jesse Puljujarvi, this thing could work. The third pair isn’t adequate, the answer there is Andrej Sekera and he’s probably a month (or so)  away. Cam Talbot at .920 helps this team in a big way. There’s still time but not a lot of room for a slump of any kind.

  • Darcy Regier“I once asked Al Arbour what’s the secret to building a team? He said no secret, it’s not complicated. Get good players.” Source

50-MAN, MAN

This is the current 50-man list for the Edmonton Oilers. I think we can all identify the “good players” and further discern the group this club is auditioning currently. For me, there’s too many in the audition category. I will tell you that (for me) giving at-bats to Kailer Yamamoto, Jesse Puljujarvi, Drake Caggiula, Jujhar Khaira, Anton Slepyshev and Iiro Pakarinen is too much audition and not enough sure thing.

  • Darcy Regier: “I think if you miss the playoffs three years in a row, and blow everything up, you’re more likely to miss the playoffs seven years in a row.” Source

When I was young, I could never find anything. My Dad would say “get a box” where everything could easily be found. Idea being, you’re saving time and money by not having to replace things you’ve already purchased and should have readily available.

The Oilers “box” should be the draft picks sent away in 2014 and 2015, but they are not where they should be for various reasons. The hammer of rage is raining down on Peter Chiarelli currently, but let’s remember the massive number of holes he needed to fill upon arrival. Regier’s words ring so true to me. A new general manager brought in today would form the team in his own image and that probably takes at least a year, maybe 18 months. A new coach might jump start this season, but Todd McLellan didn’t take a dose of stupid overnight. I know you’re looking for someone to blame but the idea of another reset makes me want to vomit. Seriously.

That said, I do believe we’re headed for some kind of pressure point in this season. One of four things appears inevitable:

  • Connor McDavid drags this team kicking and screaming into the playoffs.
  • Peter Chiarelli fires Todd McLellan.
  • Bob Nicholson fires Peter Chiarelli.
  • Peter Chiarelli trades Ryan Nugent-Hopkins for less than 100 centers on the dollar.

Choose your poison.

WAYWARD DRAFT PICKS 2014 & 2015

  • No. 33, 2014: Dealt away in the David Perron acquisition
  • No. 63, 2014: Traded for Ben Scrivens
  • No. 93, 2014: Traded for Mike Brown
  • No. 123, 2014: Traded for Viktor Fasth
  • No. 15, 2015: Traded for Griffin Reinhart
  • No. 33, 2015: Traded for Griffin Reinhart
  • No. 57, 2015: Traded for Cam Talbot
  • No. 64, 2015: Traded for Viktor Fasth
  • No. 79, 2015: Traded for Cam Talbot
  • No. 86, 2015: Traded for Todd McLellan
  • No. 94, 2015: Traded for David Perron
  • No. 107, 2015: Traded for Eric Gryba
  • No. 184, 2015: Traded for Cam Talbot

LOWDOWN WITH LOWETIDE

A busy Monday with a lot to discuss! 10 this morning, TSN1260. Scheduled to appear:

  • Pierre Lebrun, ESPN and The Athletic. Huge win in Boston, does that quiet the rumors?
  • Danny Austin, Post Media. The mood in Calgary.
  • Jason Gregor, TSN1260. Oilers win, Grey Cup another classic.
  • Andy Benoit, Sports Illustrated. NFL weekend.

10-1260 text, @Lowetide on twitter. See you on the radio!

written by

The author didn‘t add any Information to his profile yet.
Related Posts

218 Responses to "Running Up That Hill"

Newer Comments »
  1. SHILL83 says:

    19-97-91
    27-29-58
    18-93-98
    13-16-44 / 16-55-44 or 16-55-13

    25-6
    77-83
    81-4

    Three scoring lines plus a fourth line that could actually post some offense! Don’t expect 55 out of the lineup but would like to see JJ get a chance at center that line. So who sits now that we have our healthy forwards? JP should for sure be playing in the top 9 and Pak needs to get out of the lineup. Since we know 55 will play then I’d give 13 or 44 a rest for next game and make the fourth line either 16-55-44 or 16-55-13. Much better lines and JP deserves to play if he is gonna be on the NHL roster. Kid hasn’t played bad enough at all to deserve to be sitting in the press box. Give 98 nuge as his center and see what that does. Like that third line if strome could shoot the puck more like that game could have a pretty decent third line. Was very impressed with that shot on the goal by Strome but needs to do that more often! That’s the kind of shot the Oilers need but it needs to be there game in and game out. Lucic with McD slows the play down to much in my opinion and is terrible with getting the puck out of our own zone with a good pass which is where McD is at his best. Need to change that.

  2. Jethro Tull says:

    Kate Bush. Great choice.

    Kassian needs much love for that d coverage for the pinching d man and then the pass to Maroon.

  3. OriginalPouzar says:

    Nurse played 25 minutes, was plus 3 with 4 shots and 4 hits.

    He had himself a night!

  4. frjohnk says:

    If McDavid drags this team into the playoffs, he may save all of RNH, Chia and TMac.

  5. Offside says:

    Or to put the Arbour quote another way: “I once asked Coach X what’s the secret to winning a game? He said no secret, it’s not complicated. Score more than the other side”
    I assume the self-evident quote is your subtle way of saying the Oilers do not have the horses to compete yet? If so, trading Nuge is the self-evident opposite approach. Keep RNH and make it work under the cap, Chia. It doesn’t take a Harvard grad to figure this out

  6. npanciroli says:

    Pleased to see Mclellan finally bite the bullet and roll McDavid Draisaitl and RNH down the middle.

    Poison number 1 would be best. I would rather lose either of McLellan or Chiarelli (or both) before Nuge to be honest.

  7. Melvis says:

    VOR:

    I sometimes view this blog as an all in, entire cul de sac garage sale at which one spies a great looking set of unused rock glasses. I flicked a finger nail against the rim of one of them and ping, it rang crystal.

    Thanks much for the piece you provided yesterday. Much appreciated.

  8. JimmyV1965 says:

    For poops and giggles I thought I would track the team’s first goal against this year. Obviously I have too much time on my hands and I really think the early goals have killed us. It kills confidence and hurts morale. I knew it was bad, but I was actually shocked by the results.

    The Oilers have allowed a goal on the first shot four times this year. They have allowed a goal on the second or third shot four times and they have allowed a goal with five shots or less another four times.

    Out of their 24 games, they have allowed a goal with five shots or less 12 times. In three more games, they’ve allowed the first goal on seven shots or less.

    Only twice has the other team had to shoot 20+ times to score their first goal. One game was the shutout to start the season and the other was actually against Buffalo. There were two other notable good games. The game against the Isles m, who didn’t score until their 19th shot, probably Talbot’s best game of the year, and 18 shots against the Caps, where we outshot them 30-19 and lost 2-1 in SO.

    First Goal Scored Against
    1 shot – 4 times
    2 shots – 3 times
    3-5 shots – 5 times
    6-7 shots – 3 times
    10-12 shots – 5 times
    18+ shots – 4 times

    Most shocking stat. Notwithstanding the first game shutout, our save percentage on first goals is .635. It jumps to .744 if you include the shutout.

    I think Talbot has it in him to right the ship, but this is absolutely killing us right now.

  9. Brantford Boy says:

    Good effort, great win…

    I must admit I’m a bit surprised that no one has mentioned Drai’s salary on the 3rd line. I recall in the summer there was a bunch of moaning regarding Nuge’s salary that was slated for the 3rd line. Seems worse to be paying 8.5m for that centre now.

    Swapping them as SHILL83 did above, may make the books balance better, personally I don’t feel Drai can do what Nuge does night in and night out currently… obviously Chiarelli thinks otherwise.

    Anyway food for thought…

  10. frjohnk says:

    Win or loss, I bring this up.

    8th spot is looking to hit anywhere from 90 to 94 points.

    Oilers would need to go 32-20-6 and in their last 58 games to hit 90 points ( 99 point pace)
    or go 34-18-6 in their last 58 games to hit 94 points ( 104 point pace)

    The path to the playoffs is to have a winning record against the Pacific teams. Oilers need to gain points against the Pacific teams WHILE suppressing Pacific team points. ( Few OT games please)

  11. JimmyV1965 says:

    Hope they send down JP. He’s not bringing much to the table right now and this isn’t the type of environment you want for a rookie. Wait til he’s either lighting it up in the minors or the team is playing good hockey.

  12. danny says:

    if you could get Dylan Strome plus for Nuge right now? Do it.

    I understand it means throwing in the towel on this season (maybe), but Strome has 26pts in his first 15 AHL games (8g 18a). That’s the numbers of an impact NHLer.

    Let him cut his teeth on McDavid’s wing this season, then move him to center next season.
    If they can get him locked up on a non-97-inflated deal, it makes Drai moveable in a few seasons.

  13. Snowman says:

    frjohnk:
    Win or loss, I bring this up.

    8th spot is looking to hit anywhere from 90 to 94 points.

    Oilers would need to go 32-20-6 and in their last 58 games to hit 90 points ( 99 point pace)
    or go 34-18-6 in their last 58 games to hit 94 points ( 104 point pace)

    The path to the playoffs is to have a winning record against the Pacific teams.Oilers need to gain points against the Pacific teams WHILE suppressingPacific team points.( Few OT games please)

    I’ve been thinking about this a lot too actually. They’ve played a tonne against the East this first quarter. I wonder if they can string together a similar record against the West as last year maybe they can squeak in.

    It’ll be a big test of the “built to win in the West” theory.

    I’m not sure it’ll work out but in my opinion they need to lay a big time beat down on the Western conference over the next 60 without giving up many Bettman points.

    Those Bettman points are absolutely crucial. The Oilers need em when they lose and can’t give them up when they win.

  14. Kinger_Oil.redux says:

    JimmyV1965:

    I think Talbot has it in him to right the ship, but this is absolutely killing us right now.

    – One time when I was mad at WG, I said at the end of a post that by far this team is sh$t because of Talbot. I’m sure some of that can be explained by system, confidence, pressure, etc

    – But this work you did is amazing. Talbot is really really sh$t right now. I’d say this is his third maybe 4rth decent start all year. Shutout, game in Pitts, one against the NYI, can’t think of any others above average.

    – He’s caused us to lose a lot of games. Even league average goalering, thats at least 10 less goals against. Be better Talbot.

    – Judging on this, strategy for opponents: “just shoot the puck, they will fold”

  15. jake70 says:

    JimmyV1965:

    Out of their 24 games, they have allowed a goal with five shots or less 12 times.In three more games, they’ve allowed the first goal on seven shots or less.

    First Goal Scored Against
    1 shot – 4 times
    2 shots – 3 times
    3-5 shots – 5 times
    6-7 shots – 3 times
    10-12 shots – 5 times
    18+ shots – 4 times

    Most shocking stat. Notwithstanding the first game shutout, our save percentage on first goals is .635. It jumps to .744 if you include the shutout.

    Nice work. Didn’t think it was that bad. And I thought this was a thing of the past. Guess not.
    Spotting teams goals so early is deflating.

  16. Snowman says:

    danny:
    if you could get Dylan Strome plus for Nuge right now? Do it.

    I understand it means throwing in the towel on this season (maybe), but Strome has 26pts in his first 15 AHL games (8g 18a). That’s the numbers of an impact NHLer.

    Let him cut his teeth on McDavid’s wing this season, then move him to center next season.
    If they can get him locked up on a non-97-inflated deal, it makes Drai moveable in a few seasons.

    I disagree with all of this.

    Nuge is turning into the responsible two way veteran center virtually winning every team has. Dylan Strome is probably 400 games away from that if he decides to become a two way player in the first place..

    Also why would you be planning to move Drai? It’s likely he’ll be a perennial top 30 scorer in the NHL. If you think Dylan Strome is going to be that I’d have to see it first.

  17. Scungilli Slushy says:

    frjohnk:
    Win or loss, I bring this up.

    8th spot is looking to hit anywhere from 90 to 94 points.

    Oilers would need to go 32-20-6 and in their last 58 games to hit 90 points ( 99 point pace)
    or go 34-18-6 in their last 58 games to hit 94 points ( 104 point pace)

    The path to the playoffs is to have a winning record against the Pacific teams.Oilers need to gain points against the Pacific teams WHILE suppressingPacific team points.( Few OT games please)

    If Sekera comes back well I think it will be a strong finish. 2 out of every 3 is a tall order. Doable once team health comes back and playing the best available players, such as JP over Pak.

  18. dustrock says:

    Think I read we have 23 games from January onwards against Pacific division teams?

    There’s the playoffs.

  19. frjohnk says:

    Kinger_Oil.redux: – One time when I was mad at WG, I said at the end of a post that by far this team is sh$t because of Talbot.I’m sure some of that can be explained by system, confidence, pressure, etc

    – But this work you did is amazing.Talbot is really really sh$t right now. I’d say this is his third maybe 4rth decent start all year. Shutout, game in Pitts, one against the NYI, can’t think of any others above average.

    – He’s caused us to lose a lot of games.Even league average goalering, thats at least 10 less goals against.Be better Talbot.

    – Judging on this, strategy for opponents: “just shoot the puck, they will fold”

    No doubt that Talbot needs to be better, but so does the whole team.
    We are 27th goals for with 2.67
    We are 25th in goals against with 3.29 goals against per game.

    PP is connecting at a league average of 19% with 12 goals for in 63 chances but because our PK is below average in allowing 21 goals in 80 chances (73%) our special teams, overall, are putrid.

    Lots of work needs to be done all over the place

  20. leadfarmer says:

    A lot of issues with Talbot doesnt help but the swarm is also responsible for the goals against.
    I’m surprised people havent been saying anything about the defensive system but ladies and gentlemen the swarm has been here all season. Kind of like the pk where the nearest person attacks the puck possessor and the rest of the guys cycle clockwise or counterclockwise we are also doing that 5v5
    We are using our Ricki box protection dmen to chase pucks in low scoring chance areas and having forwards protect Ricki box. There is so such thing as good goaltending when you do that routinely

  21. frjohnk says:

    Scungilli Slushy: If Sekera comes back well I think it will be a strong finish. 2 out of every 3 is a tall order. Doable once team health comes back and playing the best available players, such as JP over Pak.

    Thing is, we can not count on a healthy top 9 forwards and top 4 D like we had last year. That was a crazy healthy team. We need to account for the possibilites of injuries to some of our impact players. I dont think we should expect to be as injured as the Ducks are right now ( or how we were in 15-16) but Id be very surprised to see no injuries to any impact players once Sekera comes back.

  22. frjohnk says:

    leadfarmer:
    A lot of issues with Talbot doesnt help but the swarm is also responsible for the goals against.
    I’m surprised people havent been saying anything about the defensive system but ladies and gentlemen the swarm has been here all season.Kind of like the pk where the nearest person attacks the puck possessor and the rest of the guys cycle clockwise or counterclockwise we are also doing that 5v5
    We are using our Ricki box protection dmen to chase pucks in low scoring chance areas and having forwards protect Ricki box.There is so such thing as good goaltending when you do that routinely

    Swarm was here last year.
    If I remember correctly Eakins studied TMac’s system and used it here.

  23. OmJo says:

    With Nurse playing as good as he is, why not paid him with Benning as the 2nd pair?

    Larsson boosts Klefbom.
    Nurse boosts Benning.
    Sekera boosts Russell.

    That’s a pretty good backend if everything goes to plan.

    With unicorns down the middle, I think the team could turn it around. Harder to play against, harder to defend against. All we need is Talbot (or, plot twist: Brossoit) to step up and provide us with quality goaltending and this thing could work.

    Right?

  24. JimmyV1965 says:

    frjohnk: No doubt that Talbot needs to be better, but so does the whole team.
    We are 27th goals for with 2.67
    We are 25th in goals against with 3.29 goals against per game.

    PP is connecting at a league average of 19%with 12 goals for in63 chances but because our PK is below average in allowing 21 goals in 80 chances (73%) our special teams, overall, are putrid.

    Lots of work needs to be done all over the place

    I agree with this. Our forwards aren’t getting the job done. You can see they’re off just by watching PP1. It should be one of the best in the league. It isn’t even the best on our own team. The guys are just off a bit, gripping their sticks too tight. But that too can be linked to poor goaltending. When you are always trailing early, often on soft goals, it affects morale and confidence.

  25. JimmyV1965 says:

    leadfarmer:
    A lot of issues with Talbot doesnt help but the swarm is also responsible for the goals against.
    I’m surprised people havent been saying anything about the defensive system but ladies and gentlemen the swarm has been here all season.Kind of like the pk where the nearest person attacks the puck possessor and the rest of the guys cycle clockwise or counterclockwise we are also doing that 5v5
    We are using our Ricki box protection dmen to chase pucks in low scoring chance areas and having forwards protect Ricki box.There is so such thing as good goaltending when you do that routinely

    I think that’s probably fair. But even the first goal last night. Klef screwed up for sure but it was a very saveable goal for Talbot.

  26. OilClog says:

    if the Oilers ship out Nuge, they’re officially a farm team. They half act like their the Oakland athletics, without the money ball side of things. Gallagher for Nuge! Wooop

  27. JimmyV1965 says:

    OilClog:
    if the Oilers ship out Nuge, they’re officially a farm team. They half act like their the Oakland athletics, without the money ball side of things. Gallagher for Nuge! Wooop

    Trading RNH would be a HUGE mistake. As LT often says, it would be a tell. This time about the competency of Chia.

  28. frjohnk says:

    JimmyV1965: Our forwards aren’t getting the job done

    https://twitter.com/WheatNOil/status/934986711993524226

    This is a great look into who is doing the shooting, and the shooting %’s.

    Another tweet by WheatNoil on why our shooting % overall is down.

    WheatNOil‏ @WheatNOil
    21h21 hours ago

    EDM has 41 5×5 goals on 624 shots (6.6 Sh%). The D are shooting 3.5% and the forwards are shooting 8.4%. Dmen are taking 37% of the 5×5 shots.
    League average Sh% last year was 7.67%. D-men shot 3.9% and FWDs shot 9.2%.
    On average, D-men took 29% of the 5×5 shots last year.

  29. digger50 says:

    leadfarmer:
    A lot of issues with Talbot doesnt help but the swarm is also responsible for the goals against.
    I’m surprised people havent been saying anything about the defensive system but ladies and gentlemen the swarm has been here all season.Kind of like the pk where the nearest person attacks the puck possessor and the rest of the guys cycle clockwise or counterclockwise we are also doing that 5v5
    We are using our Ricki box protection dmen to chase pucks in low scoring chance areas and having forwards protect Ricki box.There is so such thing as good goaltending when you do that routinely

    I did not recognize it as the swarm, but we have talked about repetitive weaknesses that come back to coaching.

    The word confused is what I witness and feel when watching our defensive coverage. I don’t think it’s effective and the players routinely seem lost.

  30. McSorley33 says:

    Missed the game ….good to see the boys win, but:

    Heinen?
    Vatrano?
    Schaller?
    Kuraly?
    Szwarz?
    Acciari?

    They even wear training camp numbers…..

  31. McSorley33 says:

    frjohnk,

    No doubt that Talbot needs to be better, but so does the whole team.
    We are 27th goals for with 2.67
    We are 25th in goals against with 3.29 goals against per game.
    PP is connecting at a league average of 19% with 12 goals for in 63 chances but because our PK is below average in allowing 21 goals in 80 chances (73%) our special teams, overall, are putrid.
    Lots of work needs to be done all over the place
    **************************************************************************************

    This is so bad …it needs to be repeated.

  32. BONE207 says:

    Kinger_Oil.redux,

    One time when I was mad at WG,

    What’s this 1 time business??? We must be mad at Woodguy all the time…or at least at his phone or his choice in whiskey that he serves when we gather on his lawn.

    It keeps him focused on his numbers. We all know he socially inept. /s

  33. frjohnk says:

    leadfarmer:
    A lot of issues with Talbot doesnt help but the swarm is also responsible for the goals against.
    I’m surprised people havent been saying anything about the defensive system but ladies and gentlemen the swarm has been here all season.Kind of like the pk where the nearest person attacks the puck possessor and the rest of the guys cycle clockwise or counterclockwise we are also doing that 5v5
    We are using our Ricki box protection dmen to chase pucks in low scoring chance areas and having forwards protect Ricki box.There is so such thing as good goaltending when you do that routinely

    If you have the Athletic subscription check this out
    https://theathletic.com/158074/2017/11/24/dellow-scoring-is-up-and-increased-effectiveness-on-offensive-zone-faceoff-wins-is-one-reason-why/

    Oilers appear two times on the wrong end in Dellows examples.

  34. Kinger_Oil.redux says:

    frjohnk: No doubt that Talbot needs to be better, but so does the whole team.
    We are 27th goals for with 2.67
    We are 25th in goals against with 3.29 goals against per game.

    PP is connecting at a league average of 19%with 12 goals for in63 chances but because our PK is below average in allowing 21 goals in 80 chances (73%) our special teams, overall, are putrid.

    Lots of work needs to be done all over the place

    – Agree, the team has to be better, but..

    – If Talbot made saves at the beginning of the game, maybe the team isn’t in panic mode all the time. Jimmy’s numbers are atrocious

    – If Talbot wasn’t the worst goalie (I think he is more than 10 games in PK), for sv% then the PK looks a lot better

    – Look its not black and white, and a lot feeds off each other, but if your goalie is letting goals on first shot(s) and an alarming rate, that effects a lot, or if your team is bracing for that first goal to be let in

    – If the team starts playing better, Talbot will make more saves: I bet he will get more credit for the turnaround, and he is so far relatively unscathed for his contribution to our current state IMO

    – Play better: I found this quote where he said all he needs to do this year is be decent. He needs to be the best player on the team. Make some f$ung saves, steal some games, help your team

    – Bad goalies kill good teams: always (prob. the biggest reason why Pitts didn’t win more Cups: look at Fleury’s SV% in playoffs: he sucked big time most years). Talbot needs to be at least mediocre

  35. frjohnk says:

    Kinger_Oil.redux: – Agree, the team has to be better, but..

    – If Talbot made saves at the beginning of the game, maybe the team isn’t in panic mode all the time

    – If Talbot wasn’t the worst goalie (I think he is more than 10 games in PK), for sv% then the PK looks a lot better

    – Look its not black and white, and a lot feeds off each other, but if your goalie is letting goals on first shot(s) and an alarming rate, that effects a lot, or if your team is bracing for that first goal to be let in

    – If the team starts playing better, Talbot will make more saves: I bet he will get more credit for the turnaround, and he is so far relatively unscathed for his contribution to our current state IMO

    – Play better: I found this quote where he said all he needs to do this year is be decent.He needs to be the best player on the team.Make some f$ung saves, steal some games, help your team

    Yup.

  36. anjinsan says:

    Thumbs up on Shill83’s lines.

    Trading Nuge is a cave of Batzhit crazy.

    Good going Mr. Nurse!

    Fire Chiarelli — frankly, who would hire is asset squandering, contract bloating, bygone game ass.

    Can we trade Chiarelli for Cheveldayoff, Bowman, Yzerman, [insert name of brilliant young GM here … Redwings understudy]?

  37. Glass says:

    If you could trade Draisaitl for Parayko or OEL, would you? What if we had McAvoy + Jake Debrusk coming back?

  38. OriginalPouzar says:

    Brantford Boy:
    Good effort, great win…

    I must admit I’m a bit surprised that no one has mentioned Drai’s salary on the 3rd line.I recall in the summer there was a bunch of moaning regarding Nuge’s salary that was slated for the 3rd line.Seems worse to be paying 8.5m for that centre now.

    Swapping them as SHILL83 did above, may make the books balance better, personally I don’t feel Drai can do what Nuge does night in and night out currently… obviously Chiarelli thinks otherwise.

    Anyway food for thought…

    I personally couldn’t care less how much salary is on each line in any particular game or stretch of games.

    Todd McLellan is given a 23 man roster that fits in the cap and he must deploy that lineup in the manner that gives his team the best chance to win the game that night. If that includes Drai on the “3rd line” then so be it.

    Also, we could just call Drai/Strome the 2nd line – would that help?

    An argument can be made that any line Drai is on (away from McDavid) is the 2nd line.

  39. Pouzar says:

    So TMc did the Player Grades at COH yesterday.

    Pak – 6
    RNH- 6

  40. russ99 says:

    Trading Nuge makes sense, within very well defined parameters:

    1) We need to get either quality player(s) or about to become quality player(s) back.

    2) The cap room has to go to a shooter for Connor, before the deadline, not to pay Maroon (or similar player) this summer.

    3) We need to acquire (either in the deal or seperately) a center to replace him, I still think Strome is better as a winger, who could take a big step up playing with Draisaitl, and wouldn’t be a good replacement for Nuge at either end of the ice.

    So yeah, the old 3 for 1. Improving the roster and clearing cap space is the only reason a deal would work.

    Not trading Nuge because you’re desperately holding on to rebuild-style hockey and favorite players is a weak excuse not to trade anybody.

  41. OriginalPouzar says:

    McSorley33:
    Missed the game ….good to see the boys win, but:

    Heinen?
    Vatrano?
    Schaller?
    Kuraly?
    Szwarz?
    Acciari?

    They even wear training camp numbers…..

    Still a team that had won four in a row coming in to the game and were at home against a team ravaged with the flu at the end of the 5 game road trip.

    Full credit to the Oilers for the victory in my biased mind.

  42. frjohnk says:

    russ99: Trading any player but McDavid makes sense, within very well defined parameters:

    FTFY

  43. hags9k says:

    JimmyV1965,

    Thanks for that. When people (are they still people if they are habs/leafs fans?) have been asking me what’s wrong with the Oil, I have been responding that they can’t seem to get out of the first ten minutes. I feel combination of blown coverages and weak goals have sewered us early in about half the games.

    I’d be further interested to know how many shots we had when those goals against went in. It’s a gut punch when you give one up on shot 1 or 2 bu even more so if you have 9 on the board and have been carrying the play!

    Thanks for digging into it and sharing that.

    If Talbot makes the first 10 saves, we will win a lot of games!

    Change the warmup music!!!

  44. Thinker says:

    I think there is a lesson about the importance of depth coming from the golden knights. Still think Mcphee did a shitty job at the draft. I have no idea why he let anaheim off the hook.
    I think it’s time to reset goals. It’s pretty unlikely that we catch LA or Vegas. Calgary, Anaheim and SJS are all good teams , that are starting from ahead of us. Add in Vancouver who is still in contention, and the fact that the central probably take 2 wild car spots, and it isn’t good. Pretty sure we are in never been done territory now in terms of making the playoffs. Calgary had to go on an incredible tear last season to sneak into 8th.

  45. hags9k says:

    Glass:
    If you could trade Draisaitl for Parayko or OEL, would you? What if we had McAvoy + Jake Debrusk coming back?

    Funny, as I watched the game, thinking about the rumours about Chia scouting BOS, the deal I thought of was McAvoy and DeBrusk for Nuge. Not endorsing that at all, but wondering what Chia might be looking for.

  46. magneto says:

    hags9k: Funny, as I watched the game, thinking about the rumours about Chia scouting BOS, the deal I thought of was McAvoy and DeBrusk for Nuge.Not endorsing that at all, but wondering what Chia might be looking for.

    I think you’d be hard pressed to get McAvoy for RNH straight up

  47. hags9k says:

    russ99,

    The reason I don’t trade Nuge isn’t because he’s one of my favorites, it’s because of the load of minutes and level of competition he has faced for this team. He is good.

    I feel like you take Nuge off this roster and you end up with a first line, and then head smashed in buffalo jump.

  48. Kinger_Oil.redux says:

    hags9k,

    – Yeah take fancy stats out it. This is every-single-hockey-anyone-has-played-101

    Team struggles
    Goalie knows team struggle, thinks he has to be unbelievable
    Team still struggles, plays tighter, because you know we need to get out of this
    Team play breaks down
    Goalie tries “too hard”, doesn’t play his game, lets in goals
    Team loses more, tries harder, goalie lets in more goals

    – I know this an over-simplification. But there is a lot of truth in it…When you lose, you tend to try and do more individually to turn it around. This team gets over-analyzed about how bad their system thingy is.

    – Me cave Man: “Oil, need more score, no let more goals in”

    * After that BOS win, the 3 or 4 clips from players, they all said something to the effect: “If we play like this all the time we are very hard to beat”. That’s a un-scripted group-think they have: they know they are good, and what they need to do to win. That’s on the coaching.

  49. hags9k says:

    magneto,

    Fair enough.

  50. Scungilli Slushy says:

    leadfarmer:
    A lot of issues with Talbot doesnt help but the swarm is also responsible for the goals against.
    I’m surprised people havent been saying anything about the defensive system but ladies and gentlemen the swarm has been here all season.Kind of like the pk where the nearest person attacks the puck possessor and the rest of the guys cycle clockwise or counterclockwise we are also doing that 5v5
    We are using our Ricki box protection dmen to chase pucks in low scoring chance areas and having forwards protect Ricki box.There is so such thing as good goaltending when you do that routinely

    The Boston Globe article posted a few days ago had the Oilers playing man on man D. This is why the D are following players away from the net. The article stated it’s easier than zone D.

    The problem is that Gryba can’t skate with anybody, and 4-5 of the forwards are too slow to either. It seems the Oilers have given quite a few goals via line changes and giving up 2 on 1 etc, where the forwards changing on don’t catch up with the play. Letestu was ‘also in photo’ on Boston’s second goal where he couldn’t catch the scorer.

    Need for speed.

  51. magneto says:

    hags9k:
    magneto,

    Fair enough.

    It’s an area where both players are too important to trade. Boston has no RH young D coming up and McAvoy is 19, on a top pair with 11pts in 22 games.
    RNH+Benning for McAvoy+ something small might get the Bruins interested but not a good deal for Edmonton

  52. Scungilli Slushy says:

    frjohnk: Thing is, we can not count on a healthy top 9 forwards and top 4 D like we had last year.That was a crazy healthy team.We need to account for the possibilites of injuries to some of our impact players.I dont think we should expect to be as injured as the Ducks are right now ( or how we were in 15-16) but Id be very surprised to see no injuries to any impact players once Sekera comes back.

    Agreed, I meant the flu. It seems a lot of players have been under the weather, to me more impactfull than having an injury, unless it’s Connor, Larsson or Talbot. Especially for a team that has a bunch of guys that have to skate at 125% to be half a step behind.

  53. Munny says:

    frjohnk: Swarm was here last year.
    If I remember correctly Eakins studied TMac’s system and used it here.

    Yup. Also the swarm is the most employed defensive system league-wide. Obviously each team tailors it a little differently.

  54. Thinker says:

    The problem I have with trading nuge, is that center is the only position on our team that sets us apart from average. Left wing is meh. Right wing is dogshit. Left defence is pretty good, and right defence is not great. Still don’t really have a true number one. Goalie is about average. A guy who is elite some years and not others. Backup is meh.

    There are a bunch of different ways to win, but every team that wins has something they excel at. Nashville’s defence for example. The way our team seems to be shaping up, I don’t think we will have unicorns. I think we need to have two power lines and a third line who can hold their own. Nuge and Leon in the top six gives a ton of versatility, and allows for quasi-unicorns if the rest of the pieces fall in place. Problem is finding the top two RW.

  55. Thinker says:

    Zone defence is so simple though. I’ve taught it to elementary school basketball players. Basketball is the best teaching tool for all sports btw.

  56. Dicky94 says:

    magneto,

    It will be Chara plus whoever coming (hopefully DeBrusk) if the make a trade. Still would rather not trade Nuge.

  57. Side says:

    Thinker:
    Zone defence is so simple though. I’ve taught it to elementary school basketball players. Basketball is the best teaching tool for all sports btw.

    Really? I always thought it was soccer that was the best teaching tool for sports.

    EDIT: note, I am not a teacher.

  58. Scungilli Slushy says:

    If Nuge gets traded the Oilers become thin at centre again. They would have three top 9 in McD Drai Strome, an injury would be bad news. This is one reason to draft centres. They have lots of winger prospects, but no one coming up at C. Centres can play wing but not the other way. Unless the deal has one coming back, but then it has to be a pretty young not established player or what would be the point for the other team?

  59. Brantford Boy says:

    OriginalPouzar: I personally couldn’t care less how much salary is on each line in any particular game or stretch of games.

    Todd McLellan is given a 23 man roster that fits in the cap and he must deploy that lineup in the manner that gives his team the best chance to win the game that night.If that includes Drai on the “3rd line” then so be it.

    Also, we could just call Drai/Strome the 2nd line – would that help?

    An argument can be made that any line Drai is on (away from McDavid) is the 2nd line.

    I think most people (including GM’s) would care, and more so why Nuge is being circled as expendable (not by me)… and I do agree about the 23 man roster point and that’s why Drai on 1RW was tolerable at 8.5M putting up points with McDavid as LT (and most) had penciled in…

    But based on ice time and considering they played Schaller-Acciari-Szwarz, this cannot be considered 2nd line production.

    I think your argument (from last nights game) is thin, at best. Nuge is playing the 2nd toughs every night, and I believe TMac is well aware of this 8.5M ‘situation’… who knows though, maybe Drai has the flu and this ship corrects itself… until I see the coach deploy Drai on 2C I will remain skeptical.

  60. magneto says:

    Dicky94,

    If we are guessing on trades that will crush our souls I’ll go with

    RNH to Florida for

    Petrovic+McCann

  61. jake70 says:

    Scungilli Slushy:t. Especially for a team that has a bunch of guys that have to skate at 125% to be half a step behind.

    Could feel my lungs burning and oxygen deprivation just by reading that part, and I am seated comfortably at work……uggh.

  62. McSorley33 says:

    Wow.

    If PC is looking to deal Nuge – he better get it right.

    Like RHD -all we hear is how valuable C’s are around the NHL.

  63. Cassandra says:

    Pouzar:
    So TMc did the Player Grades at COH yesterday.

    Pak – 6
    RNH- 6

    Those player grades are a good example of why so many NHL teams are terrible at evaluating their own talent, and the structural tendency in the NHL to overvalue 4th line players while undervaluing skill players.

    They grade players on a sliding scale, against expectations, rather than against an absolute scale the same for everyone.

    Thus if Pakarinen fulfills his role and gives a little extra, he gets a six. RNH, fulfills his role, and gives a little extra, he also gets a six.

    This is how you end up with nonsense like “if Eberle isn’t scoring he isn’t contributing anything,” when in the real world Eberle’s worst game is still better than Pakarinen’s best game.

    This is also how you get the nonsense that if skilled player A isn’t in your top six you don’t have a place for him, when in the real world skiller player A would be a better 4th line player than whichever grinder is currently in the spot.

    Naming the lines is a terrible convention. Everyone’s job is the same (outscore the opposition) and they should all be measured by the same scale.

    This is why the best players in the world do not all play in the NHL.

  64. danny says:

    Anyone familiar with historical AHL numbers and what Dylan Stromes 20yr season numbers show?

    2017-18 Tucson Roadrunners AHL GP15 G8 A18 P26

  65. leadfarmer says:

    Scungilli Slushy: The Boston Globe article posted a few days ago had the Oilers playing man on man D. This is why the D are following players away from the net. The article stated it’s easier than zone D.

    The problem is that Gryba can’t skate with anybody, and 4-5 of the forwards are too slow to either. It seems the Oilers have given quite a few goals via line changes and giving up 2 on 1 etc, where the forwards changing on don’t catch up with the play. Letestu was ‘also in photo’ on Boston’s second goal where he couldn’t catch the scorer.

    Need for speed.

    Exactly. We dont have the players to play that game. Would rather have the 2 dmen cover the high danger area

  66. leadfarmer says:

    danny:
    Anyone familiar with historical AHL numbers and what Dylan Stromes 20yr season numbers show?

    2017-18 Tucson RoadrunnersAHL GP15G8A18P26

    They show he is an amazing talent against lower levels of competition. But like the Reinharts I think the Stromes are overrated and he’ll top out as a good NHLer

  67. who says:

    Brantford Boy: I think most people (including GM’s) would care, and more so why Nuge is being circled as expendable (not by me)… and I do agree about the 23 man roster point and that’s why Drai on 1RW was tolerable at 8.5M putting up points with McDavid as LT (and most) had penciled in…

    But based on ice time and considering they played Schaller-Acciari-Szwarz, this cannot be considered 2nd line production.

    I think your argument (from last nights game) is thin, at best.Nuge is playing the 2nd toughs every night, and I believe TMac is well aware of this 8.5M ‘situation’… who knows though, maybe Drai has the flu and this ship corrects itself… until I see the coach deploy Drai on 2C I will remain skeptical.

    Have to agree with OP on this and I’m not sure I really understand what point you are making here.
    I think the only time a coach could get into trouble with his GM regarding player usage would be if he drastically cut minutes to a big ticket signing or acquisition. The Edmonton example would be Lucic. If Tmac staples him to the fourth line and gives him 10 minutes a night he will be in trouble. As long as he’s playing with one of the three centers and getting his power play time Tmac is probably safe.
    Running the 3 centers in the middle, with the best 6 wingers, and giving them all their regular pp and pk time gives them plenty of minutes to justify their salaries. This is the best way to maximize their contributions to this team.
    It is also best for Tmacs job security because I’m pretty sure this is what Chia had in mind when he signed Macdavid and Drai to those contracts.
    Didn’t Chia say something to the effect that you can pay your third line center 6 million if he is your 3rd best forward? I think you can.

  68. Jethro Tull says:

    Cassandra,

    You answered your own argument. The reason it is a sliding scale is because all players are not equal, play at different positions and most importantly, play different minutes. If you follow it through logically, you would know this to be true.

    1) By your definition of grading, all players must play the same amount of time.

    2) The opposing coach says “piss on that, my better players arw going to play more than my shitty players. Especially against your shitty players.”

    Our coach says “I’ll just keep my good players against your good players. So there.”

    3) Better players beat shitty players.

    4) Your argument loses.

    5) Would you like to play poker?

  69. LadiesloveSmid says:

    Don’t you trade Nuge Mr. Chiarelli

    So help me Gord

  70. LadiesloveSmid says:

    or Klefbom for that matter.

    and part of me imagines RNH going for a D worse than Klef, and Klef going for a forward worse than RNH

  71. Ryan says:

    leadfarmer,

    I wonder if opposing teams are using the man on man d to their advantage by crossing over the midline of the ice (if the rink is bisected on the long side).

    I have seen a few plays where Oilers get tied in knots by this type of movement.

    Even last season the man defence can result in strange situations like when the LD chases his man into the RD corner, the RD follows his man behind the net, and someone like Eberle is left to box out Getzlaf from the blue paint.

  72. J-Bo says:

    I know that the media has been speculating and also that Chiarelli has a history of trading high end players for lesser value, however, I think there isn’t an ounce of possibility that Nuge is traded. Hall was traded in the search for balance. Eberle was traded for cap reasons (mostly). Going back, Seguin was traded because of off ice issues. None of those things exist with Nuge and they have done nothing but praise him and have his back since this new regime took over. I believe Chiarelli is aggressive and doesn’t mind trading big pieces for what he thinks he needs. I also believe that Chiarelli needs only depth pieces at this point or a scoring winger. You don’t trade Nuge to cver for a month more of missing Sekera. You don’t trade Nuge for James Neal or even Max Pacioretty. There is no benefit to trading Nuge and Chiarelli isn’t stupid. I believe he will not be traded in season or out of season. They will use other pieces to try and find a scoring winger or a stronger depth piece or right shot defenseman. That is my opinion and I am sticking to it!

  73. OmJo says:

    Kinger_Oil.redux,

    I wonder, could it work the other way around, too? Ie Talbot is afraid if he lets in a goal, the team might not be able to score enough to get it back, putting extra pressure on him.

    So a double-edged sword, in a way.

    The players and goaltenders lack confidence in each other. Next thing you know, everybody is in panic mode after goal #1 is scored.

    Could be a thing. Idk.

  74. OmJo says:

    OriginalPouzar: I personally couldn’t care less how much salary is on each line in any particular game or stretch of games.

    I don’t care either, if it’s not due to player skill.

    What I mean is, you can’t have $6M players playing on the 3rd line because they aren’t good enough to play in the top 6.

    That cap space needs to go to skill, it can’t be wasted on bottom 6 players like that.

    Now, if a $6M player is playing on the 3rd line because we have enough talent up front to ice a competitive 3rd line, and spread the skill… That’s a different story.

  75. Kinger_Oil.redux says:

    OmJo,

    – I agree: It’s definately not the only reason, but there is some truth in all this.

    – This isn’t a bad team that is losing because they suck, rather a good team (your definition of good may vary), that is trying to hard, while bad things are happening

    – When bad things happen, its hard to trust the system, and everyone tries to solve the problem alone

    – Sometimes its’ that simple. That’s why when I said a few games ago that the opportunity for this team is that if they emerge, and play better, regardless of if they make the playoffs, man will they have a lot of belief in each other…

    – Jimmy’s finding helped a lot. Yeah sure play better, have the D shoot less, make less passes, etc, but also save some sho$ts:

    – “95 points and getting into playoffs” is the new “Cup contender”

    – And I blame it on WG: if I didn’t get so mad at him, this team would be so much better

  76. Mike Wazowski says:

    I feel that the stats you dug up don’t quite dig deep enough.

    The Oil have been notoriously slow starters this season. Often the skaters don’t look ready for the game. How many of those early goals were blown coverage and/or bad plays by the skaters? Quite a few.

    In regards to Talbot having to be better to make the PK better, the PK have been exceptionally bad at taking the cross seam pass away and that will always result in more goals against.

    Has Talbot been as good as he wanted? No.
    Has Talbot been as good as he was last season? No.

    Blaming him for the teams poor start this season isn’t right.

    JimmyV1965:
    For poops and giggles I thought I would track the team’s first goal against this year. Obviously I have too much time on my hands and I really think the early goals have killed us. It kills confidence and hurts morale. I knew it was bad, but I was actually shocked by the results.

    The Oilers have allowed a goal on the first shot four times this year. They have allowed a goal on the second or third shot four times and they have allowed a goal with five shots or less another four times.

    Out of their 24 games, they have allowed a goal with five shots or less 12 times.In three more games, they’ve allowed the first goal on seven shots or less.

    Only twice has the other team had to shoot 20+ times to score their first goal. One game was the shutout to start the season and the other was actually against Buffalo.There were two other notable good games. The game against the Isles m, who didn’t score until their 19th shot, probably Talbot’s best game of the year, and 18 shots against the Caps, where we outshot them 30-19 and lost 2-1 in SO.

    First Goal Scored Against
    1 shot – 4 times
    2 shots – 3 times
    3-5 shots – 5 times
    6-7 shots – 3 times
    10-12 shots – 5 times
    18+ shots – 4 times

    Most shocking stat. Notwithstanding the first game shutout, our save percentage on first goals is .635. It jumps to .744 if you include the shutout.

    I think Talbot has it in him to right the ship, but this is absolutely killing us right now.

  77. OmJo says:

    Mike Wazowski,

    While I don’t want to speak for other people, I don’t think too many people are suggesting any one thing is the issue – the problem is a congregate of issues that are occuring at the same time.

    The team needs to play better infront of Talbot, while Talbot needs to play better behind them, too. It shouldn’t be too much to ask for your goaltender to bail you out every now and then. Likewise, the goaltender needs to be bailed out on both ends of the ice.

  78. Georges says:

    frjohnk: If you have the Athletic subscription check this out
    https://theathletic.com/158074/2017/11/24/dellow-scoring-is-up-and-increased-effectiveness-on-offensive-zone-faceoff-wins-is-one-reason-why/

    Oilers appear two times on the wrong end in Dellows examples.

    Or… the league has had unusually strong draft years recently (McDavid and Eichel followed by Matthews and Laine). Overall, the offensive talent level has gone up. Increased offensive talent increases scoring for and against.

    Plus, the league has gone younger. More players with less experience. More risk-taking, higher probability of errors, more goals.

    Here’s the % of games played, % of total points, and % of goals scored by players 25 and under (in the year the season starts) since 05-06:

    05-06, 34, 32, 34
    06-07, 35, 32, 34
    07-08, 38, 38, 41
    08-09, 41, 42, 44
    09-10, 41, 41, 43
    10-11, 40, 41, 42
    11-12, 39, 39, 39
    12-13, 39, 40, 42
    13-14, 40, 41, 42
    14-15, 42, 42, 43
    15-16, 45, 44, 45
    16-17, 45, 45, 46
    17-18, 45, 45, 48

    This increased scoring will likely follow this cohort of players as they move through their prime years. What happens after that depends on the top end talent level of the cohorts that follow.

  79. Mike Wazowski says:

    Kinger_Oil.redux,

    Wow, you really don’t like Talbot.

    Saw the post from Jimmy that the first goal last night was “very stoppable”. Really don’t agree. A potential play-of-the-night candidate is a “weak” goal?.

    You seem to be of the mind that a goaltenders performance is completely independent of the team playing in front of him.

    He hasn’t been as good as he was last season and should better than he has been but he is not a “sh$t” goaltender and I challenge you to actually list the games where his performance cost the team the game. He is not the lone reason the Oilers are where they are.

  80. Pouzar says:

    Mike Wazowski,

    I’m watching you, Wazowski.

  81. Pouzar says:

    “I can’t imagine that the Edmonton #Oilers have any interest in parting company with him…”

    Bobby Mc on Nuge.

  82. Mike Wazowski says:

    OmJo,

    I don’t believe that the majority of commenters here have that opinion. I believe that Talbot can and should play better.

    However, there are a vocal minority, at least in my mind, that spew hate and twisted stats to support their POV which may be born out of frustration at the Oilers situation and it feels like scapegoating.

  83. Cassandra says:

    Jethro Tull:
    Cassandra,

    You answered your own argument. The reason it is a sliding scale is because all players are not equal, play at different positions and most importantly, play different minutes. If you follow it through logically, you would know this to be true.

    1) By your definition of grading, all players must play the same amount of time.

    2) The opposing coach says “piss on that, my better players arw going to play more than my shitty players. Especially against your shitty players.”

    Our coach says “I’ll just keep my good players against your good players. So there.”

    3) Better players beat shitty players.

    4) Your argument loses.

    5) Would you like to play poker?

    I have no idea what you are trying to say.

    I will repeat, however, that Pakarinen and Nugent-Hopkins should be evaluated against the same standard.

    If you give them both a six, what you are saying is that if they both always play this way, they are equally valuable, which is abject nonsense.

    This is how you talk yourself into trading away good players for pennies on a dollar.

    This is also how a useless player like Pakarinen get’s an NHL contract when there are better players who can’t get a sniff.

    Get good players. Keep good players. Means get skilled players, because you can’t be good if you don’t have skill (you can be skilled without being good).

    If I was doing the grades Pakarinen would never get anything higher than a four.

  84. Thinker says:

    Side: SIDE

    Kicking isn’t that translateable. Basketball is just hand eye coordination, defence (zone, man to man, full court press, plus a ton of conditioning. I highly suggest it for kids. Sets them up for football, rugby, hockey, etc. Hockey on the other hand is the least translateable.

  85. Mike Wazowski says:

    Pouzar,

    Thanks my tender oozing blossom. 😉

  86. Georges says:

    Georges,

    Here’s the same breakdown just for forwards 25 and under:

    season, % of games played, % of points, % of goals

    05-06, 35, 33, 35
    06-07, 35, 33, 34
    07-08, 40, 40, 42
    08-09, 44, 44, 44
    09-10, 42, 42, 43
    10-11, 42, 41, 42
    11-12, 39, 38, 39
    12-13, 40, 41, 42
    13-14, 40, 40, 41
    14-15, 41, 41, 42
    15-16, 43, 43, 44
    16-17, 48, 47, 47
    17-18, 47, 48, 50

  87. leadfarmer says:

    OmJo: I don’t care either, if it’s not due to player skill.

    What I mean is, you can’t have $6M players playing on the 3rd line because they aren’t good enough to play in the top 6.

    That cap space needs to go to skill, it can’t be wasted on bottom 6 players like that.

    Now, if a $6M player is playing on the 3rd line because we have enough talent up front to ice a competitive 3rd line, and spread the skill… That’s a different story.

    There’s nothing that says you have to play top 6 and bottom 6. Nothing. If you can play pairs of Maroon McDavid. Lucic Nuge. Drai Strome pairs for almost the whole game. Bring up 4th liners to play some shifts with those pairs and to pk to bring down ice time for their 3rd member to 15 min

  88. Woogie63 says:

    Sekera planned to be in the pre game warm up and possibly first game back Deceember 6 vs. Philly?

  89. Kinger_Oil.redux says:

    Mike Wazowski:
    Kinger_Oil.redux,

    Wow, you really don’t like Talbot.

    Saw your later post that the first goal last night was “very stoppable”. Really don’t agree. A potential play-of-the-night candidate is a “weak” goal?.

    You seem to be of the mind that a goaltenders performance is completely independent of the team playing in front of him.

    He hasn’t been as good as he was last season and should better than he has been but he is not a “sh$t” goaltender and I challenge you to actually list the games where his performance cost the team the game.He is not the lone reason the Oilers are where they are.

    – I made no comment about that goal, I don’t think you read my posts and/or you misunderstand them, and/or misrepresent them

    – I don’t dislike Talbot, he should be fine…

    – I’ve been pretty balanced IMO about assigning “blame” and recognizing that there is some cause and effect, and better team = better goalie and vice-versa

    – My posts have not been “Talbot is sh%t”, he’s the sole reason why (welle xcept when I get mad at WG). Maybe go back and re-read, I’m nuanced I think in this after Jimmy’s piece (I don’t think his conclusion was Talbot is sh%t either, rather: wow look how many goals he’s let in early)

    – I just picked up on that and ran with it a bit. On top of everything else, Talbot has let the team down with what appears to be a lot of goals early, which you can’t attribute soley to our bad system thingy

    – Then on top of that , our bad systemy stuff comes out more, becasue we are behind the 8-ball, early, so often: its a toxic confluence of events…

  90. Pouzar says:

    Oh Shit…Stauffer gonna make WG compliment Darnell!

    COMING UP NEXT…

  91. Mike Wazowski says:

    Kinger_Oil.redux,

    You are correct in that I misremembered who made the comment regarding last nights first goal and I have corrected that.

    Maybe I’m defending our starting goalie too quickly but the quote below seems to bear out how harsh you sound in regards to Talbot. I’ve seen you use the”sh$t” line regarding Talbot on many occasions.

    “– But this work you did is amazing. Talbot is really really sh$t right now. I’d say this is his third maybe 4rth decent start all year. Shutout, game in Pitts, one against the NYI, can’t think of any others above average.”

    I also wasn’t referencing “system” issues in regards to the early goals. There have been some spectacularly bad decisions by skaters to start games that result in GAA and those aren’t on the ‘tender.

  92. Jethro Tull says:

    Cassandra: I have no idea what you are trying to say.

    I will repeat, however, that Pakarinen and Nugent-Hopkins should be evaluated against the same standard.

    If you give them both a six, what you are saying is that if they both always play this way, they are equally valuable, which is abject nonsense.

    This is how you talk yourself into trading away good players for pennies on a dollar.

    This is also how a useless player like Pakarinen get’s an NHL contract when there are better players who can’t get a sniff.

    Get good players.Keep good players.Means get skilled players, because you can’t be good if you don’t have skill (you can be skilled without being good).

    If I was doing the grades Pakarinen would never get anything higher than a four.

    You have no idea what I’m trying to say because you have zero interest in any conflicting opinions so therefore will refuse to even see my point of view.

    You cannot grade the players the same because they are different. I see what you are saying, and you may grade the players how you wish according to your own criteria. That is your prerogative. However, you know full well that is not how they are done, and to boil it down to one criteria for every player is just being obtuse or deliberately provocative.

    I was trying to highlight the reasons why you cannot do this, but since you are your own confirmation bias, it’s impossible.

    I will try once more; players cannot be graded the same as they play different amounts of time and do different jobs in order for the players that are better at scoring to score on your team and stop tje players that are good at scoring for the other team.

  93. Thinker says:

    You can make an excuse for almost any goal. Fact of the matter is Talbot hasn’t been good enough. Offense also hasn’t, but that doesn’t excuse Talbot. Dubnyk was out for the same reason, and I don’t condone moving Talbot, but we are back to “it’s the goalie stupid”. There are lot’s of problems, but a top 10 starter hides a lot of them.

  94. digger50 says:

    Taylor Hall jumping in the scrum to back up Eberle today.

    After Eberle comments to a reporter far away from Edmonton, it seems some Edmonton reporters were about to cry.

    Spector calling Eberle “weak minded” and Brownlee saying “suck it up” is just more rediculous coverage. Finally we hear some truth and the media doesn’t like it.

    Pouliot recently had similar comments about losing confidence. Interesting.

  95. GMB3 says:

    Kinger_Oil.redux: – I made no comment about that goal, I don’t think you read my posts and/or you misunderstand them, and/or misrepresent them

    – I don’t dislike Talbot, he should be fine…

    – I’ve been pretty balanced IMO about assigning “blame” and recognizing that there is some cause and effect, and better team = better goalie and vice-versa

    – My posts have not been “Talbot is sh%t”, he’s the sole reason why (welle xcept when I get mad at WG). Maybe go back and re-read, I’m nuanced I think in this after Jimmy’s piece (I don’t think his conclusion was Talbot is sh%t either, rather: wow look how many goals he’s let in early)

    – I just picked up on that and ran with it a bit.On top of everything else, Talbot has let the team down with what appears to be a lot of goals early, which you can’t attribute soley to our bad system thingy

    – Then on top of that , our bad systemy stuff comes out more, becasue we are behind the 8-ball, early, so often: its a toxic confluence of events…

    Kind of reads like you’re giving the team a pass because of Talbot. Pp1 doesn’t look like shit because of Talbot. Commenters on this site always reference fact or narrative. That is some narrative spinning right there.

    Yeah the early goals don’t help but there also been plenty of team breakdowns early in games. That probably sewers Talbots confidence.

    The team is a cellar dweller and it’s ridiculous to give them a free pass because Talbot has struggled.

  96. Thinker says:

    Pouzar:
    “I can’t imagine that the Edmonton #Oilers have any interest in parting company with him…”

    Bobby Mc on Nuge.

    Hallejujah!!!

  97. GMB3 says:

    digger50:
    Taylor Hall jumping in the scrum to back up Eberle today.

    After Eberle comments to a reporter far away from Edmonton, it seems some Edmonton reporters were about to cry.

    Spector calling Eberle “weak minded” and Brownlee saying “suck it up” is just more rediculous coverage. Finally we hear some truth and the media doesn’t like it.

    Pouliot recently had similar comments about losing confidence. Interesting.

    Spector is such a bitch. Eberle wore shit from the media and fans through twitter all the time. You didn’t see him respond like he got a red ass from it. Jack Michaels and Mark Spector face any criticisms and they lash out. Talk about being mentally weak.

  98. Professor Q says:

    digger50:
    Taylor Hall jumping in the scrum to back up Eberle today.

    After Eberle comments to a reporter far away from Edmonton, it seems some Edmonton reporters were about to cry.

    Spector calling Eberle “weak minded” and Brownlee saying “suck it up” is just more rediculous coverage. Finally we hear some truth and the media doesn’t like it.

    Pouliot recently had similar comments about losing confidence. Interesting.

    That’s actually out of character for Brownlee.

    He’s a curmudgeon but he supports players and anti-Oilers stances.

  99. Professor Q says:

    Pouzar:
    “I can’t imagine that the Edmonton #Oilers have any interest in parting company with him…”

    Bobby Mc on Nuge.

    This would be excellent Nuge (on not trading him).

  100. Thinker says:

    It’s bugging me how the media keep jumping to eachothers defense. It’s clear who is and isn’t intelligent. Hint: all but one work for tsn. No coaches don’t tell the media their strategies. No players don’t tell the media their problems. People inside the dressing room tell them as little as possible to get them off their back. The media is just pissy because the days of getting a quote and grabbing a beer are gone. Bloggers like tyler dellow have upped the game, and fans expect more insight now.

  101. Greg says:

    What if we were trading Lucic to Boston for the names mentioned? Maybe it isn’t Nuge at all. I don’t really know the circumstances behind him leaving Boston, but if it wasn’t ugly it might be a place he’d consider going.

  102. Cassandra says:

    Jethro Tull,

    What you are saying is nonsense, and will lead you to over value role players.

    If RNH plays more minutes against the best players and gets outscored, he will get a lower score than Pakarinen successfully achieved his goal of nothing happening while he was on the ice.

    This is not simply absurd, but a dangerous heuristic, guaranteed to result in losing management practices. It is well known that losing team blame their best players for the failures of everyone else. It is well known that this is why they are losing teams. They are losing teams because they do things your way.

    The biggest problem Edmonton faces right now is blaming the good players for the failings of their teammates. Giving Pakarinen and RNH both a six is enabling that behaviour and needs to be called out, not simply as a failure of thinking, but the specific failure that is at the root of all the Oilers problems.

  103. JimmyV1965 says:

    Mike Wazowski:
    Kinger_Oil.redux,

    Wow, you really don’t like Talbot.

    Saw the post from Jimmy that the first goal last night was “very stoppable”. Really don’t agree. A potential play-of-the-night candidate is a “weak” goal?.

    You seem to be of the mind that a goaltenders performance is completely independent of the team playing in front of him.

    He hasn’t been as good as he was last season and should better than he has been but he is not a “sh$t” goaltender and I challenge you to actually list the games where his performance cost the team the game.He is not the lone reason the Oilers are where they are.

    For the record, I think Talbot is very good goalie who is in a horrible funk and I believe he can work his way out of it. If you rewatch the Pasternak goal, he made a great move to beat Klef, although he should have played the player and not the puck. The shot itself didn’t look particularly tough. The release was quick I guess, but it wasn’t a bullet like Strome’s and it didn’t catch a corner and it wasn’t deflected. It’s really hard to argue against a .635 save percentage on first goals. The whole reason I did the exercise is because to my eye Talbot has been letting in a lot of easy goals early in the game. My biggest complaint I guess is that in year 3 of his tenure here, TMac doesn’t have a backup he can trust, rightly or wrongly.

  104. Cassandra says:

    GMB3: Spector is such a bitch. Eberle wore shit from the media and fans through twitter all the time. You didn’t see him respond like he got a red ass from it. Jack Michaels and Mark Spector face any criticisms and they lash out. Talk about being mentally weak.

    The Edmonton media is filled with human beings without a moral center, who actively and willfully run players out of town and then hide behind the nonsense that they are just doing their job.

    Spector is just the worst of the breed. Rishaug did the same thing on the radio this morning. The guy after LT and the producer did the same thing. I don’t know how LT can tolerate being in the same room as these people.

    It is one thing to be inhumanly stupid, as Spector is, but they actively use that stupidity to harm the team, for which they deserve to be derided.

  105. JimmyV1965 says:

    GMB3: Kind of reads like you’re giving the team a pass because of Talbot. Pp1 doesn’t look like shit because of Talbot. Commenters on this site always reference fact or narrative. That is some narrative spinning right there.

    Yeah the early goals don’t help but there also been plenty of team breakdowns early in games. That probably sewers Talbots confidence.

    The team is a cellar dweller and it’s ridiculous to give them a free pass because Talbot has struggled.

    I agree with this 100%. The slump should be worn by virtually every player on this team.

  106. digger50 says:

    Professor Q: That’s actually out of character for Brownlee.

    He’s a curmudgeon but he supports players and anti-Oilers stances.

    To be fair, Brownlee presented both sides, then stated what camp he was in.

    I’d like to see the players use the players tribune a bit more to be heard.

  107. JimmyV1965 says:

    To be fair to the MSM, they generally complain about the same things most fans do. I’ve been at an Oiler game where Schultz was booed mercilessly by the fans.

  108. Professor Q says:

    McDavid and others catching up to Stamkos and Kucherov.

    It could be an intriguing latter half of the season.

  109. frjohnk says:

    Georges:
    Georges,

    Here’s the same breakdown just for forwards 25 and under:

    season, % of games played, % of points, % of goals

    05-06, 35, 33, 35
    06-07, 35, 33, 34
    07-08, 40, 40, 42
    08-09, 44, 44, 44
    09-10, 42, 42, 43
    10-11, 42, 41, 42
    11-12, 39, 38, 39
    12-13, 40, 41, 42
    13-14, 40, 40, 41
    14-15, 41, 41, 42
    15-16, 43, 43, 44
    16-17, 48, 47, 47
    17-18, 47, 48, 50

    Interesting numbers.
    I wonder if the strong 2015 draft group will end up swaying the numbers even more in the next couple of years.

    Thanks

  110. Mike Wazowski says:

    JimmyV1965,

    The number is the number but does not address the context of the play. If the team in front of a goaltender gives up a breakaway or odd-man chance for the first goal, is that on the goalie? We’ve seen precisely that situation with the Oilers and your stat line does not address that.

  111. flea says:

    Cassandra,

    To be fair, even LT goes with the current sometimes. Posts after losses are generally darker, ones after wins are a little brighter.

    It’s just the nature of sports journalism. You have to pander to the current emotional state of the fanbase to get views/listeners/etc. In Edmonton, the insatiable desire for Oilers related news draws out some of the best and worst of journalists. If the Oilers are in an extended slump as they are right now, the news stories eventually turn to targeting certain players, because you can only write “they’ll break out of this slump” for so long.

    We all want to hear what we are thinking about – I believe the term is cognitive dissonance.

  112. Georges says:

    JimmyV1965:
    For poops and giggles I thought I would track the team’s first goal against this year. Obviously I have too much time on my hands and I really think the early goals have killed us. It kills confidence and hurts morale. I knew it was bad, but I was actually shocked by the results.

    The Oilers have allowed a goal on the first shot four times this year. They have allowed a goal on the second or third shot four times and they have allowed a goal with five shots or less another four times.

    Out of their 24 games, they have allowed a goal with five shots or less 12 times.In three more games, they’ve allowed the first goal on seven shots or less.

    Only twice has the other team had to shoot 20+ times to score their first goal. One game was the shutout to start the season and the other was actually against Buffalo.There were two other notable good games. The game against the Isles m, who didn’t score until their 19th shot, probably Talbot’s best game of the year, and 18 shots against the Caps, where we outshot them 30-19 and lost 2-1 in SO.

    First Goal Scored Against
    1 shot – 4 times
    2 shots – 3 times
    3-5 shots – 5 times
    6-7 shots – 3 times
    10-12 shots – 5 times
    18+ shots – 4 times

    Most shocking stat. Notwithstanding the first game shutout, our save percentage on first goals is .635. It jumps to .744 if you include the shutout.

    I think Talbot has it in him to right the ship, but this is absolutely killing us right now.

    This should follow a geometric distribution assuming the shots are independent.

    According to corsica, the Oilers all situations sv% is 89.36.

    So, p, the probability of a goal allowed, is 0.1064 and the probability of waiting X shots to see a goal is:

    Pr(X=x) = p * (1-p)^(x-1)

    Let’s compare your numbers to the expected numbers from the distribution:

    Shots, observed, expected

    1, 4, 2.4
    2, 3, 2.1
    3-5, 5, 5.2
    6-9, 3, 4.7
    10-17, 5, 4.9
    18+, 4, 4.8

    That’s not a significant difference. The pattern of shots going in isn’t unusual given the rate at which we’re allowing goals.

    On a side note, there were 3 times last night that a Boston player skated around a defender and passed the puck across the net. One of those turned into a goal. I don’t know if Talbot has ever had the cross-crease save in his repertoire. Not many goalies do. Talbot’s whole focus on those plays is to not let the guy carrying the puck score. As it should be because that’s the right way to play the odds. Once the puck carrier makes the pass across, Talbot’s frozen. A very good confident goalie (Bobrovsky or Quick when they’re on) could probably still contest what’s coming next. But, really, that cross ice pass is on our skaters to disrupt. This is one reason why I wonder about the idea that goalies own their sv%. This year, Talbot has missed saves he was making last season. But he’s also missed saves the defense wasn’t asking him to make as often last season. And he wasn’t making many of those last year either.

    Talbot’s confidence has taken a hit but it’s not broken. He’s mostly making saves he’s supposed to make. The defensive play has to improve to limit the number of saves he’s not likely to make. That’s good chicken soup for the soul.

  113. Kinger_Oil.redux says:

    – This is an interesting read:

    – I have never lived in Edmonton, so I don’t have the same day to day stuff. Edmonton is a one major league sports town. I live in Toronto, the love their Leafs, but its a bigger market: Jays, Raptors, huge Buffalo Bills base that goes to games. Sucky leafs isn’t the end of the world in T.O.

    – I’ve never really thought about it in his context. Hall says “I never felt that the media was unfair in Edmonton, but when you do read constant negative stuff about yourself, you can’t help but lose confidence”. I mean he’s being polite, but the human element matters a lot

    – I don’t feel sorry for him, but there is a lot of insight he provides, he’s not spinning a narrative (and Spector’s tweets are hilarious in their vitriol):

    http://www.espn.com/nhl/story/_/id/21588804/taylor-hall-says-edmonton-negative-media-culture-affects-player-confidence

  114. SkatinginSand says:

    leadfarmer,

    It is nice that people have pointed out that the Oilers do not play a swarm defence, but rather a man to man, technically, a sagging man to man.

    This is amore aggressive defence than a traditional 2-3 zone, but less aggressive than the swarm. It is not better or worse than any other system, but it does require good awareness and 1 on 1 puck battle skills by the players.

    Issues arise when, like yesterday, late in the game, Draisaitl blew a tire near the blue line, causing a tire fire in the Oiler’s end.

    I have absolutely no respect for MSM types who criticise players, “inexplicably, the right defenceman went into the left corner, leaving the net front open,” when the team is playing man to man.

    This demonstrates a complete lack of understanding of the game they are paid to cover.

  115. wigswag says:

    •Connor McDavid drags this team kicking and screaming into the playoffs.

    I would love to see this team kicking and screaming for more than 1 game at a time.

  116. Lloyd B. says:

    Cassandra:
    Jethro Tull,

    What you are saying is nonsense, and will lead you to over value role players.

    If RNH plays more minutes against the best players and gets outscored, he will get a lower score than Pakarinen successfully achieved his goal of nothing happening while he was on the ice.

    This is not simply absurd, but a dangerous heuristic, guaranteed to result in losing management practices.It is well known that losing team blame their best players for the failures of everyone else.It is well known that this is why they are losing teams.They are losing teams because they do things your way.

    The biggest problem Edmonton faces right now is blaming the good players for the failings of their teammates.Giving Pakarinen and RNH both a six is enabling that behaviour and needs to be called out, not simply as a failure of thinking, but the specific failure that is at the root of all the Oilers problems.

    Cult of Hockey puts together their game grades for the players based on whatever criteria they determine appropriate.

    In your comments you seem to suggest the Oilers use this same grading system for their player evaluations.

    You have come to the conclusion that this specific failure is the root cause of all the Oilers problems.

    Interesting. You should email Chiarelli and let him know he is doing it wrong.

  117. Pouzar says:

    SIdebar: I would love a move of the Grey Cup to 3rd week in October. Thoughts?

  118. Side says:

    Lloyd B.: Cult of Hockey puts together their game grades for the players based on whatever criteria they determine appropriate.

    In your comments you seem to suggest the Oilers use this same grading system for their player evaluations.

    You have come to the conclusion that this specific failure is the root cause of all the Oilers problems.

    Interesting.You should email Chiarelli and let him know he is doing it wrong.

    Save your energy.

    Bruce Wayne will just say something like

    “I’m leaving for the weekend! but you’re not an intellectual so you wouldn’t understand! I’m right, you’re wrong!”

    As he always does.

  119. JimmyV1965 says:

    Georges: This should follow a geometric distribution assuming the shots are independent.

    According to corsica, the Oilers all situations sv% is 89.36.

    So, p, the probability of a goal allowed, is 0.1064 and the probability of waiting X shots to see a goal is:

    Pr(X=x) = p * (1-p)^(x-1)

    Let’s compare your numbers to the expected numbers from the distribution:

    Shots, observed, expected

    1, 4, 2.4
    2, 3, 2.1
    3-5, 5, 5.2
    6-9, 3, 4.7
    10-17, 5, 4.9
    18+, 4, 4.8

    That’s not a significant difference. The pattern of shots going in isn’t unusual given the rate at which we’re allowing goals.

    On a side note, there were 3 times last night that a Boston player skated around a defender and passed the puck across the net. One of those turned into a goal. I don’t know if Talbot has ever had the cross-crease save in his repertoire. Not many goalies do. Talbot’s whole focus on those plays is to not let the guy carrying the puck score. As it should be because that’s the right way to play the odds. Once the puck carrier makes the pass across, Talbot’s frozen. A very good confident goalie (Bobrovsky or Quick when they’re on) could probably still contest what’s coming next. But, really, that cross ice pass is on our skaters to disrupt. This is one reason why I wonder about the idea that goalies own their sv%. This year, Talbot has missed saves he was making last season. But he’s also missed saves the defense wasn’t asking him to make as often last season. And he wasn’t making many of those last year either.

    Talbot’s confidence has taken a hit but it’s not broken. He’s mostly making saves he’s supposed to make. The defensive play has to improve to limit the number of saves he’s not likely to make. That’s good chicken soup for the soul.

    Your math skills are clearly much more advanced than mine because I don’t understand most of what you wrote. Here’s what I got out of it. Our save percentage is .893 all situations and our save percentage on first goals, according to my research, is .635 if you don’t count the first game of the year and .744 if you do.

    At no point have I laid this completely at the doorstep of the goalie. It’s a team effort. The defence has been bad. I watch the games too and I agree there have been a lot of cross crease passes. But I’ve also seen a lot of soft goals, ones that should have been stopped.

  120. Pouzar says:

    “The three best friends on the team are Connor McDavid, Leon Draisaitl and Darnell Nurse. They are best buddies.”

    –John Shannon on Prime Time Sports

  121. Gerta Rauss says:

    Pouzar:
    SIdebar: I would love a move of the Grey Cup to 3rd week in October. Thoughts?

    I don’t follow the CFL (or the NFL for that matter) so I don’t have a dog in the fight, but I’ve never understood why the CFL doesn’t start the season earlier(and finish earlier)

    Having your showcase game played in a snowstorm seems like an avoidable situation

  122. Pouzar says:

    Kyle Platzer 5 points in 6 games.

  123. Pouzar says:

    Gerta Rauss: but I’ve never understood why the CFL doesn’t start the season earlier(and finish earlier)

    Me neither.

  124. Munny says:

    Gerta Rauss,

    Or they could alternate Vancouver and Toronto as venues, both indoors, and never worry.

    That said, it can snow in July in Canada.

    And if that game had been held in Calgary yesterday, it would’ve been +10 and gorgeous.

  125. Georges says:

    Cassandra: The Edmonton media is filled with human beings without a moral center, who actively and willfully run players out of town and then hide behind the nonsense that they are just doing their job.

    Spector is just the worst of the breed.Rishaug did the same thing on the radio this morning.The guy after LT and the producer did the same thing.I don’t know how LT can tolerate being in the same room as these people.

    It is one thing to be inhumanly stupid, as Spector is, but they actively use that stupidity to harm the team, for which they deserve to be derided.

    I live in the LT echo chamber when it comes to the Oilers. Don’t often venture out.

    I looked into CoH’s player grades last season. It confirmed to me that everyone sees the game differently. One man’s opinion is as good as the next man’s. (Bruce is a thoughtful writer, though.)

    Don’t know about the rest of the MSM. I get the sense that they’re an extension of management and they pass along takes that management wants to see circulated. That stuff should be questioned and resisted by any fan who wants to engage their intelligence and not just their emotions. MSM personality doesn’t seem to be a nice job. I imagine most of what they do is about surviving. Hard to be thoughtful and balanced given the parameters of their day-to-day.

  126. bendelson says:

    Gerta Rauss: I don’t follow the CFL (or the NFL for that matter) so I don’t have a dog in the fight, but I’ve never understood why the CFL doesn’t start the season earlier(and finish earlier)

    Having your showcase game played in a snowstorm seems like an avoidable situation

    I believe they fear starting the season in direct competition with the NHL playoffs…

  127. leadfarmer says:

    Pouzar:
    “The three best friends on the team are Connor McDavid, Leon Draisaitl and Darnell Nurse. They are best buddies.”

    –John Shannon on Prime Time Sports

    Yeah No guy has every got in a fist fight with their friend. Ever. They always hold grudges until the end of time

  128. Gerta Rauss says:

    Munny,

    I’m sure corporate Canada would prefer playing indoors and the certainty it brings, but rotating the showcase game throughout the country is probably a better course of action long term

    I’m sure it was nice in Calgary yesterday- my impression is more from a historical perspective..how many playoff games and Cup games have been played in winter weather..?

    I may be out to lunch but I view football as a summer/autumn sport, and having the playoffs and championship game around the Canadian Thanksgiving makes more sense to me (although I’m pretty sure I still wouldn’t watch)

  129. Scungilli Slushy says:

    McSorley33:
    Wow.

    If PC is looking to deal Nuge – he better get it right.

    Like RHD -all we hear is how valuable C’s are around the NHL.

    My line in the sand is a quality C prospect and a quality top 4 RHD, or a young first pair RHD. Other teams get this for a decent cost top young centre with term. Otherwise not worth it. it’s a step back. There aren’t a ton of players like him around – plays two ways and has a pretty broad range. Some may score more or be bigger but don’t have the range.

    I hope we don’t undervalue him as much as other teams might try to get us to think they do. He’s as good as Duchene for sure. And probably Johansen overall.

  130. Side says:

    leadfarmer: Yeah No guy has every got in a fist fight with their friend.Ever.They always hold grudges until the end of time

    If we’re going off the rumor, it was what lead up to the fist fight that makes it more than just a fist fight.

  131. Georges says:

    JimmyV1965: Your math skills are clearly much more advanced than mine because I don’t understand most of what you wrote.Here’s what I got out of it. Our save percentage is .893 all situations and our save percentage on first goals, according to my research, is .635 if you don’t count the first game of the year and .744 if you do.

    At no point have I laid this completely at the doorstep of the goalie. It’s a team effort.The defence has been bad. I watch the gamestoo and I agree there have been a lot of cross crease passes. But I’ve also seen a lot of soft goals, ones that should have been stopped.

    I don’t understand “save percentage on first goals.” Save percentage on goals would be 0.

    If you mean save percentage on first shots, you said opponents scored on us on their first shot 4 times.

    We’ve played 24 games. So our goalies must have given up goals on 4 first shots and stopped 20 others.

    So our save percentage on first shots would be 20/24 = 0.833 not 0.744. (Not sure how you’re getting 0.635. That’s a 10 percentage difference. We’ve played 24 games. Excluding one game, which you shouldn’t do, shouldn’t move the percentage by that much.)

    Given that our overall save percentage is 0.893, a first shot save percentage of 0.833 in a sample of 24 games is not unusual.

  132. Gerta Rauss says:

    bendelson: I believe they fear starting the season in direct competition with the NHL playoffs…

    Maybe, but I’m sure CFL fans will find time to peel themselves away from a PIT/NSH final

    *edit-I’m never sure if you’re being sarcastic B

  133. JimmyV1965 says:

    My apologies to everyone on this thread. Our save percentage for first goals is .860. Clearly I suck at math. My apologies.

  134. Dicky94 says:

    Pouzar,

    It would make more sense. And get rid of the east and west conferences. Top 7 make it with #1 getting the bye.

    2-7
    3-6
    4-5

  135. OmJo says:

    digger50:
    Taylor Hall jumping in the scrum to back up Eberle today.

    After Eberle comments to a reporter far away from Edmonton, it seems some Edmonton reporters were about to cry.

    Spector calling Eberle “weak minded” and Brownlee saying “suck it up” is just more rediculous coverage. Finally we hear some truth and the media doesn’t like it.

    Pouliot recently had similar comments about losing confidence. Interesting.

    Spector blocked.me for.simply pointing out his hindsight wrt Eakins. Talk about mentally weak…

    He unblocked me recently. I think it’s time to fix that by calling out more of his BS.

    Can we trade him for a bag of pucks? Or just the bag? Or just the idea of the bag?

  136. Pouzar says:

    Gerta Rauss: Maybe, but I’m sure CFL fans will find time to peel themselves away from a PIT/NSH final

    Yes they could. And a lucrative deal with NFL network looms as a result of an earlier start.

  137. OmJo says:

    GMB3,

    Spector is the closest this organization has to a locker room cancer.

    Ironic, huh?

  138. Pouzar says:

    Dicky94:
    Pouzar,

    It would make more sense. And get rid of the east and west conferences. Top 7 make it with #1 getting the bye.

    2-7
    3-6
    4-5

    I think divisions are here to stay especially with the Halifax bid looking like it’s gaining steam. I don’t think CFL can survive in the East with one division. Have to sell hope.

  139. Dicky94 says:

    Pouzar,

    It would be nice if they got a team. Even it out.

  140. OmJo says:

    flea,

    To be fair, LT doesn’t witch hunt and spread narratives against certain players like a few notable MSM figures do.

    His recaps after losses are darker than the wins, but that has to do (I think) with how the seasons gone. Every loss is loss closer to missing the playoffs, ever win a win closer. We’re at a point where every game counts now, a loss can’t be taken lightly.

  141. Georges says:

    JimmyV1965:
    My apologies to everyone on this thread. Our save percentage for first goals is .860. Clearly I suck at math. My apologies.

    You tried to get a better sense of what’s going on by digging into the data. That’s awesome! I hope I didn’t discourage you from making another attempt in the future. Never my intention.

    If anyone has the time or inclination to attach some extra data to goals scored in Oilers games so far this season and then to continue to add to that information for the rest of the year would create a very valuable data set. It would give us a lot more to talk and think about with respect to what’s going on with our team.

  142. bendelson says:

    Gerta Rauss: Maybe, but I’m sure CFL fans will find time to peel themselves away from a PIT/NSH final

    *edit-I’m never sure if you’re being sarcastic B

    In this particular case Gerta, I am not being sarcastic (though I can appreciate your hesitation)
    That was the response I heard yesterday during the post-game analysis, in regards to your question…
    Also something about the baseball season, which I didn’t think made a great deal of sense (perhaps the Grey Cup competing with the World Series?)

  143. Justthestatsman says:

    bendelson: I believe they fear starting the season in direct competition with the NHL playoffs…

    That’s not generally a concern around these parts…

  144. flea says:

    OmJo,

    I agree with you. Some of the media guys take it further that others. But it all plays to the emotional state of the fanbase. If your article hits a certain nerve, it’ll get attention, which ultimately is the goal of journalism. And in Edmonton, the fanbase will consume basically as much content as the media can create. So it’s just the nature of the beast. Rishaug can only spin the same story so many ways, Spector can only analyze a certain players game a few ways before the same thing is just being repeated again and again. So there is pressure on these guys to create new, exciting content for the 1000lb gorilla to consume.

    Taking personal shots at players is low hanging fruit, it’ll get attention. So I understand the temptation to go in that direction.

  145. Scungilli Slushy says:

    The less viable the paper media industry gets I could see more click baity pieces and vitriol trying to get any readership. I don’t get the TV guys behaving like that, and hear much more professional verbal out of other markets. Why trash the product that you cover and pays your bills? Maybe Bob decides the bad PR from players is worth a phone call. He owes it to the team.

  146. Mike Wazowski says:

    Munny,

    Toronto no longer plays in a covered stadium. BMO Field is an outdoor venue.

  147. Jethro Tull says:

    Cassandra:
    Jethro Tull,

    What you are saying is nonsense, and will lead you to over value role players.

    If RNH plays more minutes against the best players and gets outscored, he will get a lower score than Pakarinen successfully achieved his goal of nothing happening while he was on the ice.

    This is not simply absurd, but a dangerous heuristic, guaranteed to result in losing management practices.It is well known that losing team blame their best players for the failures of everyone else.It is well known that this is why they are losing teams.They are losing teams because they do things your way.

    The biggest problem Edmonton faces right now is blaming the good players for the failings of their teammates.Giving Pakarinen and RNH both a six is enabling that behaviour and needs to be called out, not simply as a failure of thinking, but the specific failure that is at the root of all the Oilers problems.

    Once again, you argue against yourself. Nuge would get a lower score playing against better players and not succeeding simply because he is better than Pakrinen and is expected to play against better players. There’s over valuing role players and then there’s refusing to acknowledge they contribute.

    Ask yourself, as an employee, your company makes a profit, however, your personal perfomance has been lacking. You are fired, and on your exit interview you offer up the macro-goal of “well, didn’t we make money? Isn’t that the overall objective? It shouldn’t matter about my performance as I should ve graded the same as everyone else.” Think they change their minds.

    I realise we can’t scrutinize and concentrate on the small things, but i think you zoomed to far out.

  148. Jethro Tull says:

    Cassandra: The Edmonton media is filled with human beings without a moral center, who actively and willfully run players out of town and then hide behind the nonsense that they are just doing their job.

    Spector is just the worst of the breed.Rishaug did the same thing on the radio this morning.The guy after LT and the producer did the same thing.I don’t know how LT can tolerate being in the same room as these people.

    It is one thing to be inhumanly stupid, as Spector is, but they actively use that stupidity to harm the team, for which they deserve to be derided.

    100% agree and way better than I could have put it😊

  149. NYC-Back-to-Tokyo Oil (Gentleman Backpacker) says:

    Mark Spector vs. the players? Mark Spector, of trade rumour mongering fame at spectorshockey.com-cum-TV sports commentator?

    It seems to me Mark has always had a chip on his shoulder. Maybe he thought the way he could prove he belongs would be to be petulant and ruffle feathers as a talking head. He would call out Hall and Eberle and Yakupov and recently even took on Drai and McDavid. It’s easy to piss on players when they are down, but everyone knows you don’t touch McDavid.

    The man is in over his head. At the same time the players also have to learn that they should not give two shits what other people think of them, even in a fishbowl like Edmonton.

    Spector will be forgotten long before McDavid in this town.Don’t sink to his level.

  150. Matticus says:

    SHILL83:
    19-97-91
    27-29-58
    18-93-98
    13-16-44 / 16-55-44 or 16-55-13

    25-6
    77-83
    81-4

    Three scoring lines plus a fourth line that could actually post some offense! Don’t expect 55 out of the lineup but would like to see JJ get a chance at center that line. So who sits now that we have our healthy forwards? JP should for sure be playing in the top 9 and Pak needs to get out of the lineup. Since we know 55 will play then I’d give 13 or 44 a rest for next game and make the fourth line either 16-55-44 or 16-55-13. Much better lines and JP deserves to play if he is gonna be on the NHL roster. Kid hasn’t played bad enough at all to deserve to be sitting in the press box. Give 98 nuge as his center and see what that does. Like that third line if strome could shoot the puck more like that game could have a pretty decent third line. Was very impressed with that shot on the goal by Strome but needs to do that more often! That’s the kind of shot the Oilers need but it needs to be there game in and game out.Lucic with McD slows the play down to much in my opinion and is terrible with getting the puck out of our own zone with a good pass which is where McD is at his best. Need to change that.

  151. Matticus says:

    agreed

  152. My Tierless Retina says:

    The league calls Landeskog’s crosscheck to Tkacooke’s head 4 games.

    I call it a good start.

  153. oscarmike says:

    JP down to the minors. His skating is still choppy. He needs to work on his stops and starts
    Like always these lines won’t last long.
    Chia and Woodcroft fired before Todd.
    Oilers need a veteran skilled winger ( Neal)

  154. NYC-Back-to-Tokyo Oil (Gentleman Backpacker) says:

    McAvoy is a pipe dream. He is already playing top pair and doing very well. RHD like that do not come around often. Nuge plus would not get it done.

    Also, don’t trade Nuge.

  155. Confused says:

    I think the argument that Todd does not have the horses is complete BS.

    Are people really telling me that Van and Vegas have better horses.

    ANA has half the team on IR, do they really currently have better horses?

    Yet, everyone is doing better than us.

    Coaching and team-spirit are real things, and something stinks in YEG.

    I would guess coaching, but I guess PC hired them. So again, it is his fault.

  156. Scungilli Slushy says:

    NYC-Back-to-Tokyo Oil (Gentleman Backpacker):
    McAvoy is a pipe dream. He is already playing top pair and doing very well. RHD like that do not come around often. Nuge plus would not get it done.

    Also, don’t trade Nuge.

    If you’re going to that is what for.

  157. Scungilli Slushy says:

    Confused:
    I think the argument that Todd does not have the horses is complete BS.

    Are people really telling me that Van and Vegas have better horses.

    ANA has half the team on IR, do they really currently have better horses?

    Yet, everyone is doing better than us.

    Coaching and team-spirit are real things, and something stinks in YEG.

    I would guess coaching, but I guess PC hired them. So again, it is his fault.

    Anaheim has their D in tact. And it’s a good one. Getzlaf and Kessler hurt but they also have 2 good goalies. To me the weakness on D and Talbot being shaky with no backup they will use is at the root of the problem.

    A strong puck moving mobile D solves a lot of forward issues reg season.

  158. Confused says:

    Scungilli Slushy,

    So Fowler, vatenen, Lindholm have played the entire season, really

  159. Thinker says:

    Gerta Rauss: CFL

    The CFL is a bush league compared to the NHL, and that’s saying something. They can easily start in June, with their scouting camps being moved to April (they are in the states anyway). Then they finish before Halloween, so there probably isn’t any snow, and you live with the odd year that sucks.

  160. Scungilli Slushy says:

    Confused:
    Scungilli Slushy,

    So Fowler, vatenen, Lindholm have played the entire season, really

    No but they are all now. So they keep afloat with hot goalering which the Oilers haven’t had and also only seem to be able to find one stable D pair.

    I like the Oilers young players they’re just short enough helpful vets right now. Or should I say again.

  161. GCW_69 says:

    I don’t get the belief that hiring a new GM sets the team back.

    1) Its way enough to do homework on the oilers because they play in a public forum. Its not like a potential GM is standing outside the factory without an understanding of how the widgets are made. Sure there is some elements of practice habits, personality in the room, etc. that aren’t public, but the most important stuff is.
    2) You can screen candidates on the pace they are comfortable moving and drop those that don’t have a plan with sufficient urgency.

    In business there are managers that are turnaround experts. They often don’t have the luxury of taking their time. They are required to analyze a situation quickly and take action. Why can’t a new GM do the same?

  162. Pouzar says:

    Crazy Pedestrian: I heard they were considering starting the cfl season 2-3 weeks earlier so the grey cup game would end up being played the first week of November. The cfl season would be starting literally right after the Stanley cup finals.

    The Commish waxed poetically about the 3rd week in October.

    ““I’d like to see the Grey Cup earlier, it won’t happen for 2018, but for 2019 it’s possible,” Ambrosie told Postmedia. “I’d like to see it maybe the third week of October. That week, almost everywhere in Canada is a fantastic weekend. I’ve traveled – we’ve lived in Vancouver, Calgary, Edmonton, Winnipeg, Oakville, Montreal – the third week in October is amazing. The leaves are changing colours. It’s autumn, it’s not cold.”

  163. SayItAin'tSo, Gretz, SayItAin'tSo! says:

    Thinker,

    My answer to everyone that says this is “no duh”

    the CFL caters to a grand total of 35 million people, the NFL 325 million.

    The top salary in the CFL isn’t at the level of entry level salary in the NFL.

    And the crazy thing? College football is bigger than the NFL in the US!

    You want the NFL or NCAA that’s great all the power to you they are both great leagues. But to slag the CFL in comparison, I dare say you’ve missed the point man.

    It’s a Canadian version of the game for Canadians (except for that Moon fella and that Flutie guy) and IMO it serves that purpose just fine.

    Back to back nail biters for the Grey Cup. The Stamps crapping the bed twice!

    For an Oilers blog what more could a guy/gal ask for 🙂

  164. SayItAin'tSo, Gretz, SayItAin'tSo! says:

    GCW_69,

    That stuff in the dressing room is the most important stuff

    Two guys who have been revered and lamented over on this blog all season come out and say “you know it’s really hard on the ole noodle to play in edmonton when everyone jumps on you when things go south.”

    And the response from some is:

    1) you’re mentally weak (seriously a couple MSM folks must have had a raw deal from “jocks” back in the day)

    2) intangibles don’t matter

    Totally, 100% bizarre.

    Those two guys just served up a warning shot to Edmonton and it was met with a shrug.

    The quotes from those two are the very reason you do NOT fire Chiarelli nor do you fire TMac.

    They are the only people standing in the way of the rabid animals that will eat those kids alive if given the chance

  165. Pouzar says:

    SayItAin’tSo, Gretz, SayItAin’tSo!,

    True Story. Was at a Cracker Barrel in Huntsville AL 4 years ago. An older lady walks up to me and struck up a convo. I told her I was from Canada (it was July 1st). Right away she goes off on a spiel about how much they couldn’t wait for opening night of the CFL. They love all football down there. Exploit every opportunity you can to grow the game I say.

  166. Thinker says:

    SayItAin’tSo, Gretz, SayItAin’tSo!:
    Thinker,

    My answer to everyone that says this is “no shit”

    the CFL caters to a grand total of 35 million people, the NFL 325 million.

    The top salary in the CFL isn’t at the level of entry level salary in the NFL.

    And the crazy thing? College football is bigger than the NFL in the US!

    You want the NFL or NCAA that’s great all the power to you they are both great leagues. But to slag the CFL in comparison, I dare say you’ve missed the point man.

    It’s a Canadian version of the game for Canadians (except for that Moon fella and that Flutie guy) and IMO it serves that purpose just fine.

    Back to back nail biters for the Grey Cup. The Stamps crapping the bed twice!

    For an Oilers blog what more could a guy/gal ask for 🙂

    Just because you are a small league, doesn’t mean you shouldn’t follow good business practices. There’s tonnes of fishy goings on with contracts and whatnot. Heard a lot of horror stories from former players. And until a few years ago, they were opening free agency at midnight.

    It’s not comparing them to the NFL, it’s comparing them to some semblance of respectability.

  167. Pouzar says:

    Ian Cole being actively shopped. Chia gonna be all over it.

  168. deardylan says:

    Story of Harold Ballard Fighting The Media

    “Toronto sportswriter Jim Hunt had many run-ins with Ballard. It was Hunt that gave Ballard the nickname Pal Hal, which would be the title of Dick Beddoes biography about Ballard.

    The first notable incident with Ballard took place as a rebuttal towards Hunt’s comments about the Toronto Maple Leafs. Ballard went on the air after the next Maple Leafs game and called Hunt a bastard.

    He then told TV host Dave Hodge that his comments were about someone whose last name starts with one of the first three letters of the alphabet. Hodge responded by saying Jim Bunt. Ballard responded by saying the name started with the letter C”

    I was reading about Harold Ballard in T.O. and his fights with media as he team was floundering most for decades.

    I wonder is the best way to stop media attacking players is for us to attack the media?

    Isn’t it possible the media are human, take criticism as painful (like me) and they write stories that hurt others when they are feeling hurt and defensive themselves? And they write uplifting pieces when they feel strong and confident.

    The GM, coach, players, media we are all on the same side: we want Oilers to rock it, live up to their potential and dominate other teams the rest of the season and make the playoffs this year.

    In Oiltown isn’t it time to defend our own family and use our powerful energy to attack the OPPOSITIONS GM, coaches, players, media and wear them down so Oilers can focus on their game.

    As I type this I think Russia used a similar strategy to cause seeds of discord in US and UK/Brexit elections. Russia stays strong and others nations/teams fight internally and crumble like stale cookies. Imagine if we could get one of Donald Trump Sons to be elected as Calgary GMs!! Calgary would be knocked out of playoffs for next 25 years. If we did an internet campaign and was able to install another Harold Ballard in Toronto and they would have to wait another 50 years to win a Stanley Cup. 😉

    I am joking… just my original idea is we can spend our energy building others up or knocking them down.

    Saying all of that of course I love Kaizen, we need to learn from losing and use continuous improvement everyday. Instead of attacking the person, we work on improving the process.

  169. sliderule says:

    I don’t get it

    I have read almost every Lowetide article since 2009 and didn’t recall reading any personal attacks on Ebs or Hall.

    I read the Edmonton Sun every day and don’t recall an article maligning the character of Ebs or Hall.

    When they played poorly or sometimes really shitty I did read stories and posts pointing out same .

    If that’s all they have to complain about while being paid 6 million dollars well boo hoo.

    If you are a hockey player and so sensitive that you can’t perform because you are being criticized then get off the internet ,don’t listen to radio talk ,and engage in Twitter which both those players enthusiastically participated in.

    It sounds like sour grapes that both these guys are blaming the media and fans for their being traded.

  170. Gerta Rauss says:

    Pouzar:
    Ian Cole being actively shopped. Chia gonna be all over it.

    Maroon for Cole..?

    I’m still trying to figure out what we’d do with another LH defensman, but I’ve got time..lol

  171. JimmyV1965 says:

    Georges: You tried to get a better sense of what’s going on by digging into the data. That’s awesome! I hope I didn’t discourage you from making another attempt in the future. Never my intention.

    If anyone has the time or inclination to attach some extra data to goals scored in Oilers games so far this season and then to continue to add to that information for the rest of the year would create a very valuable data set. It would give us a lot more to talk and think about with respect to what’s going on with our team.

    To be fair to myself, LOL, I’m still very troubled by this:

    First Goal Scored Against
    1 shot – 4
    2 shots – 3
    3-5 shots – 5
    6-7 shots – 3
    10-12 shots – 5
    18+ shots – 4

    More than half our games we give up goal on first seven shots.

  172. OriginalPouzar says:

    What a day – barely came up for air all day.

    So, what did I miss?

    Everyone getting along and talking about the great game yesterday afternoon?

    Everyone in agreement that Chiarelli is the man to take this team to the next level?

  173. frjohnk says:

    OriginalPouzar: Everyone in agreement that Chiarelli is the man to take this team to the next level?

    Next level, like second basement? or do you mean ground floor?

  174. prairieschooner says:

    As I said the other day Sekera will right the ship
    The D men will get pushed down the line a bit
    Talbot will be less prone to the first shot goal because Sekera will be on the ice somewhere
    Outlet passes for the forwards will be better quality resulting in good offensive chances
    Confidence will return and a strong stretch of victories will ensue

  175. deardylan says:

    sliderule:
    I don’t get it

    I have read almost every Lowetide article since 2009 and didn’t recallreading any personal attacks on Ebs or Hall.

    I read the Edmonton Sun every day and don’t recall an article maligning the character of Ebs or Hall.

    When theyplayed poorly or sometimes really shitty I did read stories and postspointing out same .

    If that’s all they have to complain about while being paid 6 million dollars well boo boo.

    If you are a hockeyplayer and so sensitive that you can’t perform because you are being criticized then get off the internet ,don’t listen to radio talk ,and engage in Twitter which both those players enthusiastically participatedin.

    It sounds like sour grapes that both these guys are blaming the media and fans for their being traded.

    Slide Rule Appreciate your post. Made me think of this magical article that VOR wrote yesterday on Lowetide about the magic of the Kid’s Line.

    “Then one day after practice Martin Gelinas, who was actually a remarkably tough guy, took Graves aside and started teaching him how to hit properly. He needed a player to demonstrate on. He picked Joe Murphy. When Teddy Green tells the story he pauses and says that is the moment he realized all Joe Murphy wanted was to belong. That was the key Green used to unlock one of the most talented but enigmatic power forwards the NHL has ever seen”

    POWER OF PSYCHOLOGY

    This reminds me the power of psychology on players and their results.

    The players are giving us their feelings and feedback.

    It is their perception.

    Perception is their own reality. And if this reality does affect their results then it is something we should explore more.

    I think Byron Katie once said, “If you argue with reality you will only lose 100% of the time”

    Would it be possible the players felt this way before being traded?

    How many of them feel it right now in the Oilers dressing room as they suit up for the Toronto game?

    How does it affect their performance in turning “shitty” so they get more negative feedback. Is it possible?

    I know we love stats and spend countless hours pouring over data and its affects on results.

    What about psychology of human beings and its affects on result?

    As a leader, manager, father how would I give feedback to my team, my direct reports, my sons and daughters?

    How would I do it publicly in newspapers?

    Words can have a devastating effect for a lifetime.

    Can any of you think of when you were younger and someone used words to break you inside and these words are etched and sketched into your soul.

    Just because you are a celebrity, sports star and gifted with unbelievable talents that make you famous…doesn’t mean you take a course or suddenly become immune to criticism. It might be the opposite…they might have so many talents that they do not have the shield to handle the “conversation” that comes with that.

    When I read the power posting yesterday about the Kid’s Line and how Joe Murphy just wanted to fit it–it made things click in my mind. Hard skills like data analysis are fun and easy to play with.

    It is the Soft skills (feelings, emotions, psychology, maslows basic needs) that are so hard.

    PS. Why am I so passionate about this subject? It is because this line “You teach best what you most need to learn!” I know I need to do a better job supporting my wife in all the crazy things she is doing instead of challenging her. I’m human too lots of failures and frailities dealing with my own psychology. Luckily no one is writing about my life in the Edmonton Journal or Sun or Athletic. haha 😉

  176. flyfish1168 says:

    Pouzar:
    Ian Cole being actively shopped. Chia gonna be all over it.

    That would be a head scratcher

  177. hunter1909 says:

    So Eberle rants about the Edmonton fans/media and everyone jumps aboard as if the Oiler’s management does squat in protecting their players from scrutiny.

    Perhaps if Lowe+MacT stupidly didn’t produce head-swelling crap like “Oil Change”?

    Glen Sather knew how to protect his players. Then again Sather was a hockey genius. The current crew? Not so much.

    Since we’re all so horrible, and nasty and the team’s screwed because of us…they need to bring up Keegan Lowe asap. Then they can discover the true meaning of human sacrifice, lol.

  178. deardylan says:

    hunter1909: Glen Sather knew how to protect his players. Then again Sather was a hockey genius.

    Great line…he was a hockey genius and great at “protecting players”. I like the sound of that.

    Lowetide and other reporters,

    Get Glen on the phone now and learn his secrets to do this

    –so our GM/Coach can do it and be known as a hockey geniuses when they retire from Oilers!!!

    #SaveTheSeason

  179. Dicky94 says:

    flyfish1168,

    Danton Cole is the guy they should target. Not sure how old he is now though. He was a RW.

  180. Professor Q says:

    hunter1909:
    So Eberle rants about the Edmonton fans/media and everyone jumps aboard as if the Oiler’s management does squat in protecting their players from scrutiny.

    Perhaps if Lowe+MacT stupidly didn’t produce head-swelling crap like “Oil Change”?

    Glen Sather knew how to protect his players. Then again Sather was a hockey genius. The current crew? Not so much.

    Since we’re all so horrible, and nasty and the team’s screwed because of us…they need to bring up Keegan Lowe asap. Then they can discover the true meaning of human sacrifice, lol.

    This would truly be a Lowe blow.

  181. Kinger_Oil.redux says:

    Georges,

    – Georges: I’m not sure if I follow. Your suggesting that it would be expected than in 18 starts, 4 goals should be scored on the first shot. That’s doesn’t seem intuitive to me.

    -Although I’ve not seen data on this, I’d assume that goal distribution is even. So for simple math if there were 33 shots a game, the normal distribution would be that 3% is scored on each shot

    – So Talbot, starting 18 games, 4 goals on the first shot, that doesn’t jive. If he allows 3 goals a game, thats 54 goals. Spread across 33 shots per game, expected goals on first shot less than 2?

  182. NYC-Back-to-Tokyo Oil (Gentleman Backpacker) says:

    Don’t look now but DeBrincat 3G 1A in the 2nd period.

    I have not watched enough Benson so I am not going to rag on him, but Yamamoto is kind of our mulligan on passing on DeBrincat right? Here’s hoping.

  183. Georges says:

    JimmyV1965: To be fair to myself, LOL, I’m still very troubled by this:

    First Goal Scored Against
    1 shot – 4
    2 shots – 3
    3-5 shots – 5
    6-7 shots – 3
    10-12 shots – 5
    18+ shots – 4

    More than half our games we give up goal on first seven shots.

    Again, that’s not unusual. Given our overall sv%, the probability that we will give up the first goal in seven or fewer shots is 0.51. In 24 games, we should expect this to happen in 12 or 13 games. That it’s happened in 15 games is not that unusual.

    As for giving up the goal in the first shot more often than any other shot, that’s how the geometric distribution works.

    Say our overall sv% happened to be 0.9 (makes the arithmetic easier). So the probability of any shot ending up in our net is 0.1.

    What’s the probability we’ll see the first goal on the first shot? Well, it’s 0.1, right?

    What’s the probability we’ll see the first goal on the second shot?

    Assuming that shots are independent, it’s the probability that we saved the first shot (0.9) multiplied by the probability that the second shot went in (0.1). This equals 0.09, which is less than the probability that we’ll see a goal on the first shot.

    What’s the probability we’ll see the first goal on the third shot?

    It’s the probability that we saved the first two shots (0.9 * 0.9) multiplied by the probability that the third shot went in (0.1). This equals 0.081, which is less than the probability that we’ll see a goal on the first or second shot.

    If you continue with this for the fourth, fifth shots and so on, you’ll see the probability keeps going down with each shot. This means that we’re more likely to see the first goal on the first shot rather than any other shot. Weird, but true.

  184. Munny says:

    Mike Wazowski:
    Munny,

    Toronto no longer plays in a covered stadium.BMO Field is an outdoor venue.

    I’m not sure how this presents a problem for the Grey Cup? Was 2008 that long ago?

    The problem with Toronto as a venue is ticket sales.

  185. Munny says:

    NYC-Back-to-Tokyo Oil (Gentleman Backpacker): Mark Spector, of trade rumour mongering fame at spectorshockey.com

    This is not the same Spector. That guy is Lyle Richardson, lives down east.

    Mark Spector caught his break writing for The Gateway at the U of A… to my great chagrin.

  186. NYC-Back-to-Tokyo Oil (Gentleman Backpacker) says:

    Munny: This is not the same Spector. That guy is Lyle Richardson, lives down east.

    Mark Spector caught his break writing for The Gateway at the U of A… to my great chagrin.

    Oh really. I apologize then for mixing the two up. Thanks for telling me. If that’s not the case why does he feel the need to take people down to bring himself up? That part still remains.

  187. LMHF#1 says:

    NYC-Back-to-Tokyo Oil (Gentleman Backpacker):
    Don’t look now but DeBrincat 3G 1A in the 2nd period.

    I have not watched enough Benson so I am not going to rag on him, but Yamamoto is kind of our mulligan on passing on DeBrincat right? Here’s hoping.

    Nope. You don’t get those slam dunks back. Man…

  188. Georges says:

    Kinger_Oil.redux:
    Georges,

    – Georges: I’m not sure if I follow.Your suggesting that it would be expected than in 18 starts, 4 goals should be scored on the first shot.That’s doesn’t seem intuitive to me.

    -Although I’ve not seen data on this, I’d assume that goal distribution is even.So for simple math if there were 33 shots a game, the normal distribution would be that 3% is scored on each shot

    – So Talbot, starting 18 games, 4 goals on the first shot, that doesn’t jive.If he allows 3 goals a game, thats 54 goals.Spread across 33 shots per game, expected goals on first shot less than 2?

    – JimmyV provided first goal data for all of our games so far. I assumed he put our one shutout in the 18+ bin. So the data isn’t just for Talbot. And it’s for all situations, not just 5v5.

    – The distribution for the first goal isn’t uniform as I explained in the post above. It follows the geometric distribution. The probability of a goal is 1 – sv%. We can assume the probability stays constant over all shots. (This isn’t true, of course. If we had more information on the shot, we would be able to assign a different probability based on factors like distance from net, etc. But, given we have no further information about the shots, we would assume they all have the same probability of going in.)

    – The distribution of goals is different from the distribution of first goals. Goals should be distributed uniformly as you say but first goals will be distributed according to the geometric distribution.

    – Let me know if you need more of a breakdown than what I provided above in my response to Jimmy.

  189. Munny says:

    NYC-Back-to-Tokyo Oil (Gentleman Backpacker): That part still remains.

    And has since his Gateway days in the 80s.

  190. OriginalPouzar says:

    NYC-Back-to-Tokyo Oil (Gentleman Backpacker):
    Don’t look now but DeBrincat 3G 1A in the 2nd period.

    I have not watched enough Benson so I am not going to rag on him, but Yamamoto is kind of our mulligan on passing on DeBrincat right? Here’s hoping.

    Benson is having a MUCH better season that Yamamoto in the WHL so far – Kailer is struggling to produce the last few weeks while Benson is almost a lock for multiple points most nights.

    I believe Benson to be just as substantial a prospect, maybe even moreso.

  191. OriginalPouzar says:

    The boys are home after yet another somewhat lengthy road trip (5 games).

    ARI and TOR at home this week before heading south to play the flames here in Calgary on Sat night.

    The boys then have two games over the next week – we need to accumulate some points in these three games -5 or 6 is key.

    I think tomorrow they finally win 2 in row for only the 2nd time this year.

    I imagine that Coach will stick with Connor, Nuge and Drai on three separate lines and keep the lines pretty much intact.

    I would love to see Jesse back in the lineup but there is the whole “don’t mess with a winning lineup” theory that many have. I’d be just find moving Pak off that 4th line and putting Jesse there – yes, I would like him up the lineup but I don’t want to mess with three lines that all contributed.

    Go Oilers!

  192. NYC-Back-to-Tokyo Oil (Gentleman Backpacker) says:

    OriginalPouzar: Benson is having a MUCH better season that Yamamoto in the WHL so far – Kailer is struggling to produce the last few weeks while Benson is almost a lock for multiple points most nights.

    I believe Benson to be just as substantial a prospect, maybe even moreso.

    I wasn’t comparing Benson and Yamamoto, and yes, I’ve read your posts waxing poetic about Benson so I know where you stand on him.

  193. Thinker says:

    We probably win the cup this year if we had Barzal, Aho, and Debrincat…

    BTW, are we sure Kailer is WHL ready? Maybe they should send him back.

  194. Kinger_Oil.redux says:

    Georges: –
    – The distribution of goals is different from the distribution of first goals. Goals should be distributed uniformly as you say but first goals will be distributed according to the geometric distribution.

    – Well I don’t want to math out this blog. Using my 33 shots/game, 30 saves, 3 goals so approx. 10% chance per shot of scoring, why is the first goal geometric distribution, and not equal-weighted?

    – Shouldn’t there just be the same 10% chance that a goal occurs as this is the first shot?. So in 18 games, expected is approx. 1.8 goals on 1st shot?

    * over long-data sets, I’m sure you are right that “We can assume the probability stays constant over all shots”, because all those factors you mention even out (type of shot, distance, etc). I guess it’s the way you solve the problem: 1-sv% vs equal weight, for likelihood of 1st shot going in.

  195. Lowetide says:

    Clayton Keller is my Calder pick right now, 11-9-20 and 78 shots in 26 games.

  196. Kinger_Oil.redux says:

    Thinker:
    We probably win the cup this year if we had Barzal, Aho, and Debrincat…

    BTW, are we sure Kailer is WHL ready? Maybe they should send him back.

    – If we also had Hall, Ebs, Yak, Pouliot, : man they would have to create a non-Oiler division for the rest of league to compete in!

    Imagine:

    Maroon-CmD-Eberle
    Hall-Dai-Yak
    Barzal-RNH-Debrincat
    Poo-Letetsu-Aho

    Santa Claus and the toothfairy on D

  197. jtblack says:

    Lowetide,

    Broek Boeser … Pure Gunslinger.

    22 PTS in 21 GMS. #CALDER

    #23 overall in 2015 Draft 😉

  198. Georges says:

    Kinger_Oil.redux: – Well I don’t want to math out this blog.Using my 33 shots/game, 30 saves, 3 goals so approx. 10% chance per shot of scoring,why is the first goal geometric distribution, and not equal-weighted?

    – Shouldn’t there just be the same 10% chance that a goal occurs as this is the first shot?.So in 18 games, expected is approx. 1.8 goals on 1st shot?

    * over long-data sets, I’m sure you are right that “We can assume the probability stays constant over all shots”, because all those factors you mention even out (type of shot, distance, etc).I guess it’s the way you solve the problem: 1-sv% vs equal weight, for likelihood of 1st shot going in.

    Think of shots as urns and goals as balls.

    With each game we take all of the goals scored and put them into the urns assigned to their associated shots. An urn for shot 1, an urn for shot 2, etc.

    In our simplified model, each shot has a constant and equal probability of producing a goal. So, after a number of games, you should see the balls uniformly distributed across the urns.

    Now, let’s say we picked a different color for balls representing the first goal, say red for first goals, blue for other goals.

    Think about the distribution of the red balls.

    The first shot urn can only contain red balls because the first shot can only contain first goals.

    The second shot urn can contain red balls and blue balls associated with second goals.

    The third shot urn can contain red balls and blue balls associated with second and third goals.

    And so on.

    Given that the distribution of all the balls will be uniform across the urns, can you see why the distribution of the red balls will be skewed to the earlier shot urns?

  199. VOR says:

    Georges,

    You are confusing the properties of the set with the properties of the members of the set.

    Each goal in hockey is a unique event. Each occurs in Ricki’s multi-dimensional space. The probability of any unique event X cannot be inferred or assumed from the average (or any other property) of the set S={X1, X2, X3….Xn}. Or any derivative property set.

Newer Comments »

Leave a Reply

Want to join the discussion?
Feel free to contribute!
© Copyright - Lowetide.ca