G25 2017-18: Coyotes at Oilers

Darnell Nurse is emerging as a top 4D by eye and my math, that’s one of the real positives surrounding the Edmonton Oilers this season. We’re at a point in the season where the numbers are more trustworthy and Nurse shines like a diamond among Edmonton’s blue.

THE ATHLETIC

The special Lowetide offer is here. Today’s story is the No. 10 Prospect in the system.

DIRTY WATER, YEAR OVER YEAR

  • Oilers in November 2015: 4-7-2, goal differential -9 (10 poins in 13 games)
  • Oilers in November 2016: 5-8-1, goal differential -1
  • Oilers in November 2017: 6-7-1, goal differential -4

The November 2015 schedule contained just 13 games and the final game of 2016-17 November schedule saw Edmonton lose to Toronto 4-2. This year’s Oilers have two more games to go but the six wins this year represent the highest total of Todd McLellan’s three Novembers with the club.

AFTER 25, YEAR OVER YEAR

  • Oilers 15-16: 8-14-2, goal differential -13
  • Oilers 16-17: 12-10-2, goal differential +7
  • Oilers 17-18: 9-13-2, goal differential -14

G25 in 2015-16 was a 3-0 loss to the Maple Leafs and a year ago it was a 6-3 win over Winnipeg, which included three power-play goals. If the Oilers win in regulation tonight it will represent the first time all year we’ve seen two regulation wins in a row. Amazing.

WHAT TO EXPECT FROM NOVEMBER

  • At home to: Pittsburgh, New Jersey, Detroit (Expected: 2-1-0) (Actual 1-2-0)
  • On the road to: NYI, New Jersey, NYR, Washington (Expected: 1-2-1) (Actual: 2-1-1)
  • At home to: Vegas, St. Louis (Expected 1-1-0) (Actual: 1-1-0)
  • On the road to: Dallas, St. Louis, Detroit, Buffalo, Boston (Expected 2-2-1) (Actual 2-3-0)
  • At home to: Arizona, Toronto (Expected 1-1-0) (Actual 0-0-0)
  • Overall expected result: 7-7-2, 16 points in 16 games 
  • Current results: 6-7-1, 13 points in 14 games

It’s been a strange month, with the road trips (4-4-1) actually better than the home games (2-3-0) but there are two games to go. Tonight’s a big damned deal.

DEFENSE, 2017-18

Nurse scores well across the board (these are my preferred metrics until we get the Puck IQ rolling), nice progress and we hope it continues. Auvitu looks chaotic but the numbers are good, Gryba scores well here (31.35 SA/60 a year ago) although he’s taking penalties at a rapid clip and his boots are more noticeable this year.

Matt Benning has had nights of chaotica and his SA/60 a year ago (27.75) shows we’re looking at a different defense this season. The Swedes are up in SA/60 too (Klefbom was 29.05, Larsson 29.3). Nurse was 32.58/60 SA a year ago, that’s your lead, ladies and men. Defensemen don’t develop in a straight line and we shouldn’t assume next year will be identical to this one. Still, nice progress for Mr. Nurse.

FORWARDS, 2017-18

Based on the number of tweets and DM’s I received Sunday afternoon, you’re all crazy about “UNICORNS!” after the Boston game. Leon Draisaitl (2.04, 5.26 a year ago) has shown nice early progress this year, Connor McDavid (2.88, 8.74) is in the range but down slightly in both categories. RNH (1.5, 8.12) is up in scoring, but down in shots and individual scoring chances (3.38 this year, 3.67 a year ago). Milan Lucic is similar to Nuge (individual SC’s were 3.49/60 a year ago, 2.45 this year) so we’ll have to monitor and a downturn seems likely based on the numbers. Numbers via NaturalStatTrick.

TWO ROOKIES?

Things will change as we continue through the season, but as of now the Edmonton Oilers have employed just two rookies during the 2017-18 season:

  • Kailer Yamamoto 9gp, 0-3-3
  • Laurent Brossoit 6gp, 3.31 .880

The Oilers have been packing rookies into seasons six at a time (seven a year ago) so this is unusual. The last time Edmonton boasted just two rookies? Never. The closest the club ever came to two rookies was 1999-00:

  • Paul Comrie 15gp, 1-2-3
  • Dan Lacouture 5gp, 0-0-0
  • Mike Minard 1gp, 3.00 .917
  • Source

Sean Tierney does brilliant work and I think his graph (“goals saved above average/60”) shows Cam Talbot out of the blue and into the black. He needs to turn that around for Edmonton to have any chance, it’s something I’m betting happens as we roll along. If a player isn’t hurt, isn’t about to turn 40 and has a reasonable track record of success, he should revert to previous levels. We can’t time it but it should be just beyond the blue horizon.

Yamamoto’s boxcars sit at 7gp, 1-5-6 since he’s been sent back, it’s not uncommon for a player to slump after being sent back by his NHL team. I’m not certain how much power-play time he’s getting but this is a player who was dominant at this level a year ago and it’s reasonable to expect that again. Leon Draisaitl went 3-3-6 in his first five games after demotion in 2014-15 but ripped off 27gp, 16-31-47 after getting settled. I expect Mr. Yamamoto will turn it on soon.

UNICORNS!

If the Oilers win tonight while running 97, 93 and 29 up the middle, we’re going to have unicorn sightings all across central Alberta. One thing I’d love to see? Jesse Puljujarvi populating a line centered by one of the three big C’s. I think it’s a big part of this season and vitally important to the future. If we can agree the McDavid cluster is key to winning, adding JP to the group that currently includes 97, Leon, Darnell Nurse, Oscar Klefbom, Adam Larsson is vital. These men should be pushing for the next decade important to have a large and productive cluster, with enough balance to overcome injury and cap letting.

LOWDOWN WITH LOWETIDE

At 10 this morning, TSN1260. Scheduled to appear:

  • Jonathan Willis, The Athletic. Who’s lucky and unlucky offensively in Edmonton this year.
  • Luke Lapinski, Arizona Coyotes Broadcast Host. We’ll check on Dylan Strome and the other brilliant youngsters in Phoenix.
  • Scott Cullen, TSN. Classic Grey Cup, Toronto versus Edmonton was supposed to be the battle of young giants. What happened?

10-1260 text, @Lowetide on twitter. See you on the radio!

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763 Responses to "G25 2017-18: Coyotes at Oilers"

« Older Comments
  1. Réal Goudenyéu says:

    That’s big.

  2. LadiesloveSmid says:

    NUUUUUUGGGEEEEEEE

  3. Evilas says:

    Nuuuuuuuuuuuuuuuuuuuuuuuuuuuuuuuuuuuuuuuuuuuuuuuuuuuuuuuuuuuuuugggggggggggggeeeeeeeee!!!!!!!

  4. OmJo says:

    Nuge!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!

  5. russ99 says:

    Yeah!!!!!!!!!!

  6. Pouzar says:

    FUCK YES! NUUUUUGE!!

  7. Gret99zky says:

    Pump and dump?

  8. NYC-Back-to-Tokyo Oil (Gentleman Backpacker) says:

    Coyotes owning McDavid and the Oilers at 3-on-3. Who would have thought?
    Speed matters.

  9. hunter1909 says:

    RNH makes me feel like Barry Foster in “Frenzy”

  10. OilClog says:

    Nuge!

  11. deardylan says:

    #SHAZAM!!!

    Can never ever ever ever give up on my Oilers family. We got the breaks, we got the win, we got the 2 points!!!!

    Edmonton gets the WIN!

    9th from NUGE

    Edmonton survives this game and will find the way to survive into the playoffs.

    10W, 2 in a Row…many more to go!

  12. russ99 says:

    Damn we needed that.

  13. Evilas says:

    They’re not really going to trade this guy ARE they?

  14. hags9k says:

    The Golden Nugget!!!

  15. Lucinius says:

    Always love to see RNH score! Boy did he bail out the Oilers tonight. Best player tonight, imo.

  16. Réal Goudenyéu says:

    Still not 2 regulation wins in a row *ducks*

  17. LadiesloveSmid says:

    Still too close of a damn game.

    Man, I love Nuge.

  18. Pouzar says:

    Suck it OEL

  19. hunter1909 says:

    Tonight’s score … + 4-1 Leafs over the Flames.

    Great night of NHL action, I’d say.

  20. NYC-Back-to-Tokyo Oil (Gentleman Backpacker) says:

    NYC-Back-to-Tokyo Oil (Gentleman Backpacker):
    Nuge is awesome

    Yeah. What this guy said.

    Still watching from Tokyo, was that one by Nugey?

  21. Gerta Rauss says:

    omg that was exciting

    I think they’ll change that 2nd goal to Nuge…and the OT winner for 2 on the night

  22. hunter1909 says:

    LadiesloveSmid:
    Still too close of a damn game.

    Man, I love Nuge.

    Nah! These are precisely the type of games that win in the NHL.

    “We should have won…we shoulda! etc off the Coyotes.

  23. Réal Goudenyéu says:

    hunter1909:
    Tonight’s score … + 4-1 Leafs over the Flames.

    Great night of NHL action, I’d say.

    Hope is a good thing

  24. who says:

    Well, they had no business winning that game. Certainly had no business winning that overtime. They were brutal 3 on 3.
    1 point against the Coyotes would have been totally unacceptable.

  25. ashley says:

    That’s the Burnaby special. 2002 Olympic gold medal game. Same move, the other Burnaby guy.

  26. BONE207 says:

    hunter1909:
    RNH makes me feel like Barry Foster in “Frenzy”

    Is that like Barry Trotz in a shirt store?

  27. LadiesloveSmid says:

    Leafs 16-9-1

    Thursday will be tough, especially if they play like tonight

  28. deardylan says:

    OmJo:
    If you can’t beat em, beat em!

    You called it!!! 🙂 When McD couldn’t even get a point and can’t beat em, beat em!

    loooooooovvvvveee iiiiiitttt!!

  29. russ99 says:

    Beat Toronto and maybe things ratchet down a bit.

  30. Receptor Antagonist says:

    Think Nuge might finally get 50 points this season?

    Asking for a friend…

  31. Pouzar says:

    Coaches need to coach now. I mean seriously figure this special teams shit out already.

  32. Munny says:

    Gerta Rauss,

    I’m not so sure now… after seeing the replay from behind the net, there was zero celly from Nuge after goal 2.

  33. StixMalone says:

    X box privelages reinstated. Boys are happy and will club the leafs to get more Xbox credits…

  34. Scungilli Slushy says:

    Trade him!

  35. hunter1909 says:

    RNH is starting to rocket up the Oilers depth charts. And I do mean rocket.

  36. SayItAin'tSo, Gretz, SayItAin'tSo! says:

    I have a feeling that JP gets his shot with McDavid on Thursday night.

    PP1 McBlender is in effect, finally

  37. OmJo says:

    Receptor Antagonist:
    Think Nuge might finally get 50 points this season?

    Asking for a friend…

    I don’t get this.

    Nuge has had 3 +50pt seasons already. And was on pace for 2 more.

    Is it an inside joke?

  38. hunter1909 says:

    who:
    Well, they had no business winning that game. Certainly had no business winning that overtime. They were brutal 3 on 3.
    1 point against the Coyotes would have been totally unacceptable.

    No idea how old you are but I am old enough to recall those heady times when Oilers would face the Dallas Stars and time after time the Oilers went away with moral victories.

    I’d prefer to be moral in real life, but when it comes to sports the rules are made to be bent, if not broken!

  39. Gerta Rauss says:

    Munny:
    ,

    I’m not so sure now… after seeing the replay from behind the net, there was zero celly from Nuge after goal 2.

    Yeah, maybe-my initial reaction was the puck changed direction but that might be the beer talking

  40. deardylan says:

    Too bad for Arizona. The goal posts are cheering for us.

    Its gonna be a another hardluck loss for the leafs too.

    Poor leaf fans facing the OILER JUGGERNAUT IN MCD+BOT and 3RD victory in a row.

    McD will skate around Auston Matthews and win it by bouncing it off AM’s back, off the post and IN.

  41. OmJo says:

    deardylan: McD will skate around Auston Matthews and win it by bouncing it off AM’s back, off the post and IN.

    Lol NGL this would make my season.

  42. NYC-Back-to-Tokyo Oil (Gentleman Backpacker) says:

    OmJo:

    Is it an inside joke?

    It’s a joke, yes. Been going on on this board for a while.

  43. Gret99zky says:

    hunter1909:
    RNH is starting to rocket up the Oilers depth charts. And I do mean rocket.

    But $6 million.

  44. OmJo says:

    NYC-Back-to-Tokyo Oil (Gentleman Backpacker): It’s a joke, yes. Been going on on this board for a while.

    Ah, my bad lol.

    I’ll shush now. Carry on.

  45. LadiesloveSmid says:

    OmJo: I don’t get this.

    Nuge has had 3 +50pt seasons already. And was on pace for 2 more.

    Is it an inside joke?

    Yes

    An old troll asked when RNH would hit 50P after he’d done it 2-3 times

  46. Caller Zen says:

    ashley:
    That’s the Burnaby special.2002 Olympic gold medal game.Same move, the other Burnaby guy.

    Sometimes that shot is too predictable for RNH since it’s his go-to shot, but when it works, it’s a beauty.

  47. Pouzar says:

    EDM Prospect Watch‏
    @EDProspectWatch

    Stuart Skinner follows up his 47 save shutout vs Kootenay Saturday with a 44 save performance tonight in a 4-3 OT win over the powerhouse Portland Winterhawks.

  48. deardylan says:

    who: WHO

    Business is WINNING!

  49. JimmyV1965 says:

    Certainly not a definitive win, but a win nonetheless and desperately needed. RNH was awesome again!! McDavid and Drai are just off. That’s the worst I’ve ever seen that pair in OT.

  50. hunter1909 says:

    Gret99zky: But $6 million.

    So far this season Nuge’s points count double.

    Like tonight.

  51. Scungilli Slushy says:

    Glad to see Nuge shine this year, he has been the Oilers best player. Probably overall pre Connor as well really. Glad to see him feel his oats and get recognition. Also notice he’s looking more physically mature. Only the start for him now IMO.

    Let’s hope the cloud lifts and some joy of the game comes back to all of them. But not so much that they screw up a complete humiliation of the chosen ones, which is necessary and right.

  52. hunter1909 says:

    Were the team to upset the prevailing winds and slaughter both the Flames and Leafs…

    #talkaboutmoralvictories

  53. treevojo says:

    OmJo: I don’t get this.

    Nuge has had 3 +50pt seasons already. And was on pace for 2 more.

    Is it an inside joke?

    Yes

  54. blainer says:

    Very lucky to have won that one. I would not be happy with that stinker coach. Man they need to get quicker.

    The leafs will bury them if thats the way they play.

  55. StixMalone says:

    Pouzar:
    EDM Prospect Watch‏
    @EDProspectWatch

    Stuart Skinner follows up his 47 save shutout vs Kootenay Saturday with a 44 save performance tonight in a 4-3 OT win over the powerhouse Portland Winterhawks.

    Awesome

  56. Scungilli Slushy says:

    Gret99zky: But $6 million.

    Playing like 6.5M this year.

  57. hunter1909 says:

    Okay Oilers…so since y’all are special snowflakes and require fawning support…

    Y’all have it – until the next game.

  58. NYC-Back-to-Tokyo Oil (Gentleman Backpacker) says:

    Nuge was fantastic on both sides of the puck all night. Now the rest of the team needs to follow suit and play right from puck drop against the Loafs.

  59. Evilas says:

    fishman,

    I know, I replied to OP, 2 posts above yours.

    Klefbom’s not been what we thought he’d be this year in the Ozone and the rest of the D are not consistent at getting the puck on net from the point.

    Maybe Auvitu has been the most consistent at it, but he is not a favourite of this coaching staff and with Seksy coming back soon, I think his days are numbered, unfortunately.

    I can see him being taken out of the line-up next game, based on the lack of usage in the 3rd period.

    Who can we get to inject some offense from the Blueline? I think this is a major problem for this team and I think the brutal PP needs a proper QB who can not only distribute, but also blast the biscuit. Thoughts?

  60. treevojo says:

    treevojo: Yes

    I guess I am slow on the reply

  61. hunter1909 says:

    blainer: The leafs will bury them if thats the way they play.

    Woo Hoo.

    The 1967 since last made the finals leafs.

    Give me a break.

    Seriously, each game has it’s own intrinsic value.

  62. Gret99zky says:

    All the greasy Oiler season ticketers will sell their seats to Leaf fans on Thursday. #capitalism

  63. Dicky94 says:

    JimmyV1965,

    I’m gonna blame Reinhart!

  64. Munny says:

    hunter1909:
    RNH makes me feel like Barry Foster in “Frenzy”

    Bob’s your uncle!

  65. deardylan says:

    Win by Win, Game by Game, Period by Period, Minute by Minute.

    Anyone Statsmasters out there: I am wondering how many games do we need to win in a row do to get back into the playoffs? 🙂

  66. treevojo says:

    Gret99zky:
    All the greasy Oiler season ticketers will sell their seats to Leaf fans on Thursday. #capitalism

    The only thing better then a oiler victory with a full oiler crowd is an oiler victory With a crowd full of maple leaf fans.

    I wish I was there for it.

    McDavid minimum 3 pts

    Book it

  67. Evilas says:

    Evilas,

    Based on this I think Klefbom might be traded, with Nurses emergence, 77 might be available… I totally understand the development curve of defensemen and maybe he picks up again, but I am trying to think of what Chia might end up doing….I don’t know how he could ever think that trading Nuge would be wise, based on his consistency, so who is the most logical candidate who would bring back value, yet not cripple the team today. Leon for Seth Jones??? 29 is too expensive for the CBJ’s, so there would have to be a lot of salary retained and high picks added.

  68. Munny says:

    OmJo: Is it an inside joke?

    Damn rookies, lol
    😉

  69. BeerMe says:

    A lucky win against the worst team in the NHL. We were simply not good enough again tonight. Had one of those OT crossbar shots gone in, the mood in here would be dreary. Unless winning 2 games in a row somehow changes the way this team plays by giving them confidence, call me skeptical. Felt like a loss to me tonight. Where was the 60 minute effort?

  70. Dicky94 says:

    deardylan,

    I just hope we are within a couple points of a wildcard spot at the Christmas break.

  71. Scungilli Slushy says:

    deardylan:
    Win by Win, Game by Game, Period by Period, Minute by Minute.

    Anyone Statsmasters out there: I am wondering how many games do we need to win in a row do to get back into the playoffs?

    They are 5 pts out of the wildcard spots and 6 behind third place in the division which is in. As it stands they have to win 3 more games than the wildcard placeholders and 4 more than the 3rd place Pacific team from here out.

    Not impossible. As LT said earlier it might be easier to be 3rd in the Pacific as we play the division teams a lot and when we beat them they don’t get points. But a smokin’ hot streak hopefully against division rivals is necessary. And at least .500 always to keep place. CAn’t fall any furthur back.

  72. Gret99zky says:

    If Chia trades the Nuge I will be considerably put off.

  73. flyfish1168 says:

    Connor appeared out of sync tonight. To many bad passes and puck management moments that we are not use to seeing from him.

  74. Thinker says:

    I haven’t bitched about this yet on the blog, but ticket resale is the lowest of the low. I know so many people who go to like 10 games a year, and sell the rest for a profit. There are teams in the states that do thier own selling of tickets, where you basically just sell back to the team, and they distribute them. Btw why is ticketmaster a thing in the era of the internet? Why don’t the oilers have their own thing?

    Imo if you are a season ticket holder, you should get like a credit card which is a pass for all games. If you can’t make a game, you can lend it to a friend, or sell the ticket back to the team. That way the your pass becomes to valuable to just give to some stranger.

  75. deardylan says:

    Now Oilers how can we get to 3W in a row?

    Heed the warnings of another famous sports prophet Connor Mc (G) who knows the formula of winning…

    “Oilers, if you sleep on a Arizona win and you’ll wake up with a Toronto loss.”

  76. Scungilli Slushy says:

    BeerMe:
    A lucky win against the worst team in the NHL. We were simply not good enough again tonight. Had one of those OT crossbar shots had gone in, the mood in here would be dreary. Unless winning 2 games in a row somehow changes the way this team plays by giving them confidence, call me skeptical. Felt like a loss to me tonight. Where was the 60 minute effort?

    Winning is the only way the team pulls up, so even lucky wins help. They had their share of unlucky losses.

    The book on Talbot is pretty clear – side post and top shelf. But he was positional enough that he didn’t get beat through a big gaping hole on those OT shots, so luck and better play on his part, he didn’t leave them much, for a change.

    I’m sure they will take a deep breath, and hopefully relax a bit because they have been so tight they can’t get any rhythm or flow. I’m not saying get loose, just not holding the sticks so tight.

  77. Dac189 says:

    Oilers need to get 64% win rate to make it to 95 points (playoffs likely). Last year they had a 62% win rate all season. If the team is better than their history, they should still be able to make it! Sekera coming back like a beast and Klefbom/Benning back to last year levels could get them there.

    Talbot with a great game

  78. Munny says:

    Thinker: but ticket resale is the lowest of the low

    Wut?

  79. Munny says:

    Dac189: Talbot with a great game

    Outstanding game. I didn’t catch the three stars, but I’m assuming he was 1st?

  80. Ice Sage says:

    Whew.
    Is there any hope vs Toronto

  81. Pouzar says:

    Vancouver Giants‏Verified account
    @WHLGiants
    48s48 seconds ago

    GOOOOOOOALLLLL!!!!!!!!!!!!!!

    @TylerBenson_17!!!!!!!

    OVERTIIIIIIME WINNER!!!!!!!

  82. Scungilli Slushy says:

    Gret99zky:
    If Chia trades the Nuge I will be considerably put off.

    Connor Drai Nuge. Keepers.

  83. deardylan says:

    Dac189:
    Oilers need to get 64% win rate to make it to 95 points (playoffs likely). Last year they had a 62% win rate all season. If the team is better than their history, they should still be able to make it! Sekera coming back like a beast and Klefbom/Benning back to last year levels could get them there.

    Talbot with a great game

    Thanks DAC. Any idea how many wins in a row would get them to that line from current position?

  84. treevojo says:

    BeerMe:
    A lucky win against the worst team in the NHL. We were simply not good enough again tonight. Had one of those OT crossbar shots gone in, the mood in here would be dreary. Unless winning 2 games in a row somehow changes the way this team plays by giving them confidence, call me skeptical. Felt like a loss to me tonight. Where was the 60 minute effort?

    And If your aunt had balls she would be your uncle.

    This team has deserved to win more games then they lost this year by a lot of metrics that this community values.

    It’s a weird community though.

    They are more willing to back a team with the current shot metrics if it isn’t the team they cheer for.

    If it is the oilers they seem to dig deeper to find reasons or many confirmation bias to back their preconceived notions.

  85. hunter1909 says:

    Munny: Bob’s your uncle!

    You can’t get anywhere in the potato business.

  86. Pouzar says:

    EDM Prospect Watch‏
    @EDProspectWatch

    EDM Prospect Watch Retweeted Vancouver Giants
    Benson with an assist on the game tying goal late and scores the winner in OT.

    He’s on a 5 game point streak, 5G 4A over those 5 games.

  87. --hudson-- says:

    Really nice play by Matt Benning to seal off Stepan on the OT goal.
    https://streamable.com/ays5f

    Very slick and subtle!

  88. treevojo says:

    Pouzar:
    EDM Prospect Watch‏
    @EDProspectWatch

    EDM Prospect Watch Retweeted Vancouver Giants
    Benson with an assist on the game tying goal late and scores the winner in OT.

    He’s on a 5 game point streak, 5G 4A over those 5 games.

    Ya but what about debrincat?

  89. Dac189 says:

    deardylan,

    Still a far way to go, with the flames current point rate, oilers would need 7 wins in a row starting now. They would meet at game 32 with 36 points for each team.

    But, it’s a long season, spread out those wins over the remaining season and they need about 62-64%

  90. Munny says:

    hunter1909: You can’t get anywhere in the potato business.

    The potato business is poison, always was.

  91. NYC-Back-to-Tokyo Oil (Gentleman Backpacker) says:

    treevojo: Ya but what about debrincat?

    Go Benson!

    (It is possible to have believed at the time and still now that DeBrincat was the better choice, but still cheer on the chosen prospect because he is part of the Oilers’ organization and this team will be better for it if he turns out to be a keeper_.

  92. blainer says:

    hunter1909: Woo Hoo.

    The 1967 since last made the finals leafs.

    Give me a break.

    Seriously, each game has it’s own intrinsic value.

    I’m normally very optimistic and rarely say to much bad about our team anymore. I think every game here on out needs to be treated as a playoff game.

    I still believe… Love to see them kick the leafs asses all over the rink along with a blowout score of 8-0.

    I have been expecting a long winning steak and hoping it happens on this run..

  93. Scungilli Slushy says:

    deardylan: Thanks DAC.Any idea how many wins in a row would get them to that line from current position?

    It’s not wins in a row. It depends on how many the other teams win as to how long it will take to pass them. The other teams in the division can win games too, we don’t catch until we win and they don’t.

    If we get as many 1 point games from tying in regulation and losing in OT/shootout as last year, it would take 34 wins to make 95 points. 94 points was the playoff cutoff last year.

    If we win 6 out of 10 and Calgary or San Jose win 3 out of 10, we’re right there.

  94. who says:

    hunter1909: No idea how old you are but I am old enough to recall those heady times when Oilers would face the Dallas Stars and time after time the Oilers went away with moral victories.

    I’d prefer to be moral in real life, but when it comes to sports the rules are made to be bent, if not broken!

    Don’t get me wrong. Happy they won. But this victory didn’t exactly instill a lot of confidence in me. Team was pretty flat for 2 periods and got outplayed in the overtime.
    Still like some of the line combos but the powerplay needs some new personel.
    Not bragging, but there’s a pretty good chance I’m older than most posters here. Wish it wasn’t so.

  95. Evilas says:

    treevojo,

    You make a good point and the team has FINALLY won 2 in a row. BUT, this team doesn’t look as good as it did at the beginning of the year.

    And they had a bruutal effort vs Buffalo who are a bottom-feeder and had lost 7 in a row, after their best effort of the season the game before vs Detroit.

    They let the last-place Yotes run their show in this game and in OT. The PP did not look dangerous at all. This team should be much much better. None of this makes sense.

    As a hardcore supporter you can cheer for your team, but you are allowed to be frustrated. The expectations for this team were sky-high and it appears that their season is already in jeopardy.

    Why would a fan of this team not have any criticisms???? If any fan deserves to vent, it is clearly any fan of this team.

  96. Android says:

    NYC-Back-to-Tokyo Oil (Gentleman Backpacker): Go Benson!

    (It is possible to have believed at the time and still now that DeBrincat was the better choice, but still cheer on the chosen prospect because he is part of the Oilers’ organization and this team will be better for it if he turns out to be a keeper_.

    And here I was feeling like I was the only one to understand this.

  97. Lucinius says:

    Oilers on pace for 72 points after 25 games. This is actually the highest the pace has been after a 5 game stretch (we were on pace for 33 points after the first 5 games, 57 after 10, 71 after 15, 66 after 20). Games 1-5 (2 points) and 16-20 (3 points) is where the Oilers suffered.

    On pace for a -43 goal differential (improved a fair bit; it was around -70 not too far back). That’d be a 78 goal swing to the negative (ironically, the Oilers had a 78 goal swing to the position from 2015-2016 to 2016-2017).

    Breaks down to the Oilers are on pace to 0.33 fewer goals for per game and 0.61 more goals against. Shoddy goaltending, porous d-coverage, sloppy back-checking and systemic play results eerily hearkening back to the decade of darkness.

    A number of players, thus far, that have been performing below reasonable expectations (not just in points), in no particular order;

    Talbot: Obvious reasons why. Has been fighting the puck most of the season and his movements have looked sluggish and un-polished.

    Klefbom: Hasn’t been bad, just hasn’t been where you’d expect him given prior seasons. I think Sekera’s injury has hurt him more than expected and some wonky play. Lacking some of the o-zone shot accuracy and pass selection from last season.

    Larsson: Defensively, I view him as in the same boat as Klefbom — hasn’t been bad, just hasn’t been where you’d expect him to be, or needed him to be.

    Caggiula: Stat wise he’s actually on pace for a better season than last year. I have not, however, been that impressed by a lot of his defensive zone through neutral zone play. A lot of sloppy, lazy mistakes and missed assignments.

    Pakarinen: I remember when most people here were high on the guy and disliked it when he wasn’t able to play. This year, however, he’s struggled heavily whenever the puck comes near him outside the Oilers’ zone. Been a decent pker, but I’d take Lander back over him any day of the week.

    Slepyshev: Has had some good games and some games where he just can’t get anything done, or things just go wrong. Still a lot of potential here. If he can stay healthy.

    Letestu: Need more from him in the face offs, on the pk and the defensive side of things 5v5. Not worried about his points; they’re getting up closer to last year as we go along and last year wasn’t sustainable, imo, in terms of his powerplay production.

    Best, overall player in terms of effort this year has been RNH by a mile. McDavid (and Draisatl) are better players, but RNH has shown zero quit in him. I expect McDavid and Draisatl to sharpen up their games and limit some of the brain fart moments they’ve been having — they’re too good not to.

    Special teams continue to make me weep. I have never been a fan of the powerplay system ever since McLennan and his powerplay coach arrived. The success they had last year was a bit misleading, imo, as you had a couple lucky breaks helping it along (namely Letestu getting freebie after freebie when ignored — something no one is doing this year as they expect that pass across).

    The lack of adaptability on the power play (and the out-right refusal, it seems, to set up one-timers properly) is incredibly frustrating. Its basic powerplay stuff they are ignoring; crisp, quick passes that stretch out defenders, hustling to the puck (they’ve been beaten to a lot of loose puck on the powerplay this year from what I’ve seen), and a strong, determined net-front presence. Instead they continually pass it along the boards, force it through danger areas, or just cycle with little net presence and letting pkers out-man and out-work them with little repercussion.

  98. Réal Goudenyéu says:

    BeerMe:
    A lucky win against the worst team in the NHL. We were simply not good enough again tonight. Had one of those OT crossbar shots gone in, the mood in here would be dreary. Unless winning 2 games in a row somehow changes the way this team plays by giving them confidence, call me skeptical. Felt like a loss to me tonight. Where was the 60 minute effort?

    Fair comment and if they play like that against the leafs they’ll get flattened.

    I dunno what is up with these guys they can’t get up for the games.

  99. Confused says:

    Just back from the game.

    Oilers fighting for their lives and have clearly chosen suicide.

    Best player for the oilers OEL, for the chop on Scott W resulting in the Benning bomb.

    Todd…give JP a game…..for F******* sake sit Pak

    And stop playing Connor with slow and slower

  100. treevojo says:

    Evilas:
    treevojo,

    You make a good point and the team has FINALLY won 2 in a row.BUT, this team doesn’t look as good as it did at the beginning of the year.

    And they had a bruutal effort vs Buffalo who are a bottom-feeder and had lost 7 in a row, after their best effort of the season the game before vs Detroit.

    They let the last-place Yotes run their show in this game and in OT.The PP did not look dangerous at all.This team should be much much better.None of this makes sense.

    As a hardcore supporter you can cheer for your team, but you are allowed to be frustrated.The expectations for this team were sky-high and it appears that their season is already in jeopardy.

    Why would a fan of this team not have any criticisms????If any fan deserves to vent, it is clearly any fan of this team.

    I believe there are many analytical types that cheer for this team to do well and when they do they are more then happy to show the stats to support such claims.

    But when shit goes south as this season has they disregard their usual go to stats to dig “deeper” to find the true reason this team has struggled.

    If this seasons numbers could be attributed to a team like the Arizona coyotes or last years Florida Panthers we might be hearing a different tune.

  101. Android says:

    Thinker,

    The teams prices are not even remotely better. It’s over $100 for tickets in the top row of the upper deck, knocked down to $90 for obstructed view tickets in the same rows.

  102. Rebilled says:

    Ryan Pisani Nugent-Hopkins.

    Thanks for some belief.

  103. treevojo says:

    NYC-Back-to-Tokyo Oil (Gentleman Backpacker): Go Benson!

    (It is possible to have believed at the time and still now that DeBrincat was the better choice, but still cheer on the chosen prospect because he is part of the Oilers’ organization and this team will be better for it if he turns out to be a keeper_.

    That’s great that you feel this way but the true question is what you base it on.

    You may be the exception but I am pretty comfortable in saying that most people that predicted debrincat to be a better prospect then benson haven’t seen either of the two play live more then 5 times.

  104. Munny says:

    TMac post-game was pretty straight-up:

    https://www.nhl.com/oilers/video/c-55125303

    No legs earlier, letting up on shooting opps, too cute, Talbot good, Lucky in OT, didn’t bring puck out of the zone to create line changes In OT like past games. Will take the win, try and build on it.

  105. treevojo says:

    treevojo,

    In other words you and everybody else are talking out of the side of their ass based on counting numbers and scouting reports of people they have never met in their life.

  106. Thinker says:

    Android:
    Thinker,

    The teams prices are not even remotely better. It’s over $100 for tickets in the top row of the upper deck, knocked down to $90 for obstructed view tickets in the same rows.

    It’s the principle of it. It’s selling a product that doesn’t belong to you. And just because the team charges a lot doesn’t mean I would rather pay a sleazy scalper more.

  107. Munny says:

    Thinker: It’s the principle of it. It’s selling a product that doesn’t belong to you

    Wut?

  108. BeerMe says:

    Munny: Wut?

    I think he means reselling is not a value-add. Parasitic capitalism.

  109. Munny says:

    BeerMe,

    How bizarre.

  110. deardylan says:

    Dac189: https://streamable.com/ays5f

    Thanks for the analysis SCUNGILLI and DAC!

    BACK IN BLACK

    6-8 wins in a row?

    How do we do it?

    Like my friend said when I asked him how he lost 50kg of weight and reached his ideal target….

    He said, “I didn’t lose 50kg one time.”

    “I LOST 1 KG x 50 TIMES

    For our Oil

    1W x 7 TIMES and we are close to outta the red zone and back in black!

    Back in black I hit the sack
    I’ve been too long I’m glad to be back
    Yes I am
    Let loose from the noose
    That’s kept me hanging about
    I kept looking at the sky cause it’s gettin’ me high
    Forget the hearse cause I’ll never die
    I got nine lives cat’s eyes

    cause Oilers are BACK IN BLACK!!

    Oiler and fans listen to this live in Argentina… with FANS who salute and believe believe believe in those who rock. If this doesn’t get you pumped, get off the couch!!!

    2:48 in this VIDEO is when Strome scored that goal against the bruins leading to a 8 game winning streak…

    https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=j5rGm3kdTuk

    and then play this video on top with the MUSIC in background…

    https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=rA9YjFS6YI4

    #ShazamStrome

  111. Android says:

    Thinker: It’s the principle of it. It’s selling a product that doesn’t belong to you. And just because the team charges a lot doesn’t mean I would rather pay a sleazy scalper more.

    I’m not disagreeing on the scalpers, I more meant that sometimes it feels like the team is just as bad.
    That said, not everyone is bad. I got resale lower bowl tickets to the St. Louis game for $60 each. (Granted it was about an hour and a half before the game started.)

    Edit: I mean, it cost me $25 to go to a game in Phoenix during their run to the conference final, and you got a free hot dog and drink with the ticket. I know they don’t have the best attendance, but for me it destroys any illusion that Oilers tickets are even remotely worth the price.

  112. Johnny Gonzo says:

    Larrson is that number 2D that makes his 3D partner look like a 1D.
    Win is WIn. need bunches more.

  113. Munny says:

    BeerMe: I think he means reselling is not a value-add. Parasitic capitalism.

    A person buys a bag of apples for $2. Later another person with no apples offers to buy one apple for $2. The first person agrees to the exchange.

    In what world is this morally reprehensible? Parasitic? Not adding value to the world?

  114. Android says:

    Munny,

    To play devil’s advocate: Someone buys 30 tickets to a playoff game at $250 each. They have 0 intention of ever attending the game, and instead sell them to people for $400 each, because people will pay whatever price for playoff tickets here.

    The problem in this situation is that resale sites can enable this kind of garbage, because they don’t care who is selling what, as long as they get paid transaction fees.

    Obviously it’s not quite so straightforward in every instance, but it is a problem. Just look at what happened with the watch party tickets last year.

    I think selling off season tickets for games you can’t attend is fine. Buying tickets for the purpose of reselling them, something that sites like ticketmaster and stubhub don’t really stop, is parasitic and stupid.

  115. NYC-Back-to-Tokyo Oil (Gentleman Backpacker) says:

    treevojo: That’s great that you feel this way but the true question is what you base it on.

    You may be the exception but I am pretty comfortable in saying that most people that predicteddebrincat to be a better prospect then benson haven’t seen either of the two play live more then 5 times.

    Well, I live in Japan. Before that I wandered the Earth for 3 years so seeing them live–I presume you mean in the arena by that–I have not done.

    If by talking out of my ass you mean I have my opinions, which I said were my opinions, well, yeah they are like assholes: everybody has one.

    Last I checked, this place was boring when everyone agrees with one another.

  116. JimmyV1965 says:

    Pouzar:
    Coaches need to coach now. I mean seriously figure this special teams shit out already.

    Not sure if it’s coaching. PP2 is sooooo much better than PP1.

  117. JimmyV1965 says:

    Dac189:
    deardylan,

    Still a far way to go, with the flames current point rate, oilers would need 7 wins in a row starting now. They would meet at game 32 with 36 points for each team.

    But, it’s a long season, spread out those wins over the remaining season and they need about 62-64%

    I do think they’ll need something like a 7 game winning streak at some point. There’s going to be a stretch coming up here where we play Nsh, Tor and Clb three of four games.

  118. Thinker says:

    Munny: A person buys a bag of apples for $2. Later another person with no apples offers to buy one apple for $2. The first person agrees to the exchange.

    In what world is this morally reprehensible? Parasitic? Not adding value to the world?

    The new iphone comes out. You go to the store and buy 40 because you know there will be a shortage as with any new product released. You then list them on kijiji for double the price. If that isn’t making sense yet, change that to tickle-me-elmo, and some kid not getting a what they wanted for christmas because you are an asshole.

    It’s less like apples, as you are actually taking someone else’s intellectually property and reselling it without their consent. You contributed nothing to the free market, and benefited from someone else’s work. It’s a loophole that only works because there is a shortage you are exploiting.

  119. Munny says:

    Android:
    Munny,

    To play devil’s advocate: Someone buys 30 tickets to a playoff game at $250 each. They have 0 intention of ever attending the game, and instead sell them to people for $400 each, because people will pay whatever price for playoff tickets here.

    So they sell them voluntarily and those who would not or could not man the phones buy them voluntarily, presumably both parties getting what they want, and you have a problem with this?

    Do you bitch when the new model TVs come out at twice the price of the old models, when material and manufacturing costs aren’t that different, too?

    The problem in this situation is that resale sites can enable this kind of garbage, because they don’t care who is selling what, as long as they get paid transaction fees.

    If site(s) is plural then the competition works to lower prices to the benefit of buyers. Wish for more sites not less. Regulation will only add to costs, reduce supply, and pick winners and losers among the sellers, driving the market towards monopoly and prices higher. Prohibition will only create a black market, driving prices even higher yet.

    Obviously it’s not quite so straightforward in every instance, but it is a problem. Just look at what happened with the watch party tickets last year.

    It’s not clear what you are saying here and I don’t want to put words in your mouth. Prima facie though, this doesn’t look convincing in the least. No problem has been demonstrated other than a bizarre criticism of voluntary trade between two individuals.

    I think selling off season tickets for games you can’t attend is fine. Buying tickets for the purpose of reselling them, something that sites like ticketmaster and stubhub don’t really stop, is parasitic and stupid.

    Utter nonsense. Preventing two individuals from trading freely and voluntarily with each other is parasitic and stupid. And does far more harm to society than anything a scalper could muster.

    And how the heck are you going to police differentiating between those who can’t attend and common scalpers, without placing costs on everyone in society, including those who don’t give two flying about hockey, and not just the people who want to attend the game and are willing to pay for it?

    I noticed you avoided the simple paradigm I provided above. What is parasitic about selling that apple? What in the name of Bastiat has that person done wrong?

    Don’t like scalpers? No problem, your right to live your life how you like. Don’t use them. Bitching because others are willing to do so is busybody bullshit. Let those people live their life how they like, if you actually want a moral world. They haven’t done a single person any harm.

  120. Georges says:

    I went back to 05-06 to see how teams that started with 22 or fewer points in their first 25 games have done by the end of the season. Ignoring 12-13, there were 57 teams in this leaky boat. The end of season points average for this group was 75.

    Just 6 of the 57 teams managed to get 90 or more points by season end after starting with 22 or fewer points in their first 25 games. All but one made the playoffs.

    05-06 SJS 99 (started with 22; made playoffs)

    07-08 WSH 94 (started with 18; made playoffs)

    10-11 BUF 96 (started with 21; made playoffs)

    10-11 CGY 94 (started with 22; didn’t make playoffs)

    13-14 CBJ 93 (started with 21; made playoffs)

    16-17 CGY 94 (started with 22; made playoffs)

    Long odds for our team. But we already knew that. They were longer a couple of games ago when we had just 18 points in 23 games. Out of 28 teams that started that poorly, only 07-08 WSH managed to climb into the playoffs.

    In 2 games, we’ve gone from a 1 in 28 chance to a 5 in 57 chance. We’ve made progress.

  121. Thinker says:

    Munny: So they sell them voluntarily and those who would not or could not man the phones buy them voluntarily, presumably both parties getting what they want, and you have a problem with this?

    Do you bitch when the new model TVs come out at twice the price of the old models, when material and manufacturing costs aren’t that different, too?

    The problem in this situation is that resale sites can enable this kind of garbage, because they don’t care who is selling what, as long as they get paid transaction fees.

    If site(s) is plural then the competition works to lower prices to the benefit of buyers.Wish for more sites not less.Regulation will only add to costs, reduce supply, and pick winners and losers among the sellers, driving the market towards monopoly and prices higher.Prohibition will only create a black market, driving prices even higher yet.

    Obviously it’s not quite so straightforward in every instance, but it is a problem. Just look at what happened with the watch party tickets last year.

    It’s not clear what you are saying here and I don’t want to put words in your mouth. Prima facie though, this doesn’t look convincing in the least. No problem has been demonstrated other than a bizarre criticism of voluntary trade between two individuals.

    I think selling off season tickets for games you can’t attend is fine. Buying tickets for the purpose of reselling them, something that sites like ticketmaster and stubhub don’t really stop, is parasitic and stupid.

    Utter nonsense.Preventing two individuals from trading freely and voluntarily with each other is parasitic and stupid.And does far more harm to society than anything a scalper could muster.

    And how the heck are you going to police differentiating between those who can’t attend and common scalpers, without placing costs on everyone in society, including those who don’t give two flying about hockey, and not just the people who want to attend the game and are willing to pay for it?

    I noticed you avoided the simple paradigm I provided above. What is parasitic about selling that apple? What in the name of Bastiat has that person done wrong?

    Don’t like scalpers? No problem, your right to live your life how you like. Don’t use them. Bitching because others are willing to do so is busybody bullshit. Let those people live their life how they like, if you actually want a moral world. They haven’t done a single person any harm.

    The intellectual property point is where I have a problem with it. I don’t care if the Oilers sell tickets for $1000. I have a problem with you selling the Oilers tickets. It’s like pimping. It’s different than just flipping products. And the biggest problem I have with it is how stupid the Oilers are for letting that profit escape them. Not to mention, I can’t honestly buy season tickets, because assholes are playing middleman. Not to mention you aren’t paying the tax man like every ethical business has to.

    I’m as right leaning as they come, but I stand by this.

  122. Soup Fascist says:

    Thinker: The intellectual property point is where I have a problem with it. I don’t care if the Oilers sell tickets for $1000. I have a problem with you selling the Oilers tickets. It’s like pimping. It’s different than just flipping products. And the biggest problem I have with it is how stupid the Oilers are for letting that profit escape them. Not to mention, I can’t honestly buy season tickets, because assholes are playing middleman. Not to mention you aren’t paying the tax man like every ethical business has to.

    I’m as right leaning as they come, but I stand by this.

    I have had Season Tix for 12 years and now have seen all of 2 years of playoffs. My current tix cost me $24K annually. I don’t want to add up what I have spent over the last 12 years to watch generally putrid hockey. I go to the majority of games.

    If I choose to sell the odd game to likely fans of the Leafs and Habs at a marked up price, in order to offset my significant costs associated with the investment in this team – so be it. My Ticket / My Choice. I also donate tickets to silent auctions for charities. Again – my choice. Feel free to take it elsewhere, Chum.

    Ferraro hasn’t yet patented the word, “Chum” has he?

  123. Soup Fascist says:

    Android: I’m not disagreeing on the scalpers, I more meant that sometimes it feels like the team is just as bad.
    That said, not everyone is bad. I got resale lower bowl tickets to the St. Louis game for $60 each. (Granted it was about an hour and a half before the game started.)

    Edit: I mean, it cost me $25 to go to a game in Phoenix during their run to the conference final, and you got a free hot dog and drink with the ticket. I know they don’t have the best attendance, but for me it destroys any illusion that Oilers tickets are even remotely worth the price.

    The value of the ticket is what a buyer is willing to pay for it. If you paid $60 for a lower bowl ticket stamped at $180 to a midweek game a couple of hours prior to face off, please don’t bitch if the same ticket is sold for $350 for Auston vs Connor.

    You can’t have it both ways.

  124. My Tierless Retina says:

    It may be a case of ‘the jersey’s always Bloor on the other side of the fence’, but I sure hope this team brings a better effort against the Leaves.

    Elsewise there might be a lot of pearly whites gnashed into fine powder around here.

  125. deardylan says:

    Season Tickets $24K annually over 10 years = Quarter of a Million Dollars!
    Add in transport, gas, parking, food, beer…oh man I cannot imagine.

  126. Android says:

    Munny,

    First, calm the hell down, Slinging insults and ignoring what people say doesn’t contribute to any sort of real discussion. This is the kind of overly aggressive response that drives users away from the site.

    I’m not “bitching”, in fact I specifically wrote I was playing Devil’s Advocate in regards to what Thinker said.

    If site(s) is plural then the competition works to lower prices to the benefit of buyers. Wish for more sites not less. Regulation will only add to costs, reduce supply, and pick winners and losers among the sellers, driving the market towards monopoly and prices higher. Prohibition will only create a black market, driving prices even higher yet.

    And how the heck are you going to police differentiating between those who can’t attend and common scalpers, without placing costs on everyone in society, including those who don’t give two flying about hockey, and not just the people who want to attend the game and are willing to pay for it?

    I’ll address these two points together, since they’re in a similar vein.

    Literally all you need to do is write a few simple functions into the website design, there would literally be no extra cost to anyone, let alone people who don’t care about hockey.
    The ticket distribution system of ticketmaster essentially prevents you from reselling tickets anywhere but on the tm website.
    From there, simply set up a bot to monitor account/credit card activity on the site. If an account buys 40 tickets to one game, don’t allow that account to immediately put all of those tickets up for resale. Simple. This won’t drive up overall ticket prices, if anything it would lower them, since it would reduce the ease of scalping.

    Do you bitch when the new model TVs come out at twice the price of the old models, when material and manufacturing costs aren’t that different, too?

    I noticed you avoided the simple paradigm I provided above. What is parasitic about selling that apple? What in the name of Bastiat has that person done wrong?

    I didn’t avoid the “paradigm”, it’s just not applicable to what I was saying, same as the TV example.
    In the case of buying a TV from a manufacturer, or a house someone’s flipped, or an apple someone brought, or a drink that’s been made, etc. There has been a service performed.

    In the case of the apples, that first person has bought the bag at the store, and brought it to the other person.
    With scalping, it would be like person 1 going to a grocery store, buying every apple, and then setting up a stand at the store re-selling all the apples for twice the price. It just creates an unnecessary middleman and price hike. The scalper hasn’t done anything to warrant an increased price.

    It’s not clear what you are saying here and I don’t want to put words in your mouth. Prima facie though, this doesn’t look convincing in the least. No problem has been demonstrated other than a bizarre criticism of voluntary trade between two individuals.

    In the first part I was basically saying that I wasn’t trying to vilify all resellers, but there are issues with resale as a process.
    In the second I was referring to the controversy over the watch party tickets last year in Edmonton. They were being sold for charity for $5, and were highly sought after. People bought out tons of them and were putting them up for 1000% price increases. These weren’t tickets being sold to profit the Oilers, they were being sold for charity. It poisoned the spirit of the idea, and the Oilers eventually banned resale of the tickets.

    No problem has been demonstrated other than a bizarre criticism of voluntary trade between two individuals.

    It really doesn’t count as voluntary if there’s no other source of tickets. It’s like when people buy out drug patents and hike the prices, it’s not like someone can buy them somewhere else.

    Munny: So they sell them voluntarily and those who would not or could not man the phones buy them voluntarily, presumably both parties getting what they want, and you have a problem with this?

    Utter nonsense.Preventing two individuals from trading freely and voluntarily with each other is parasitic and stupid.And does far more harm to society than anything a scalper could muster.

    Don’t like scalpers? No problem, your right to live your life how you like. Don’t use them. Bitching because others are willing to do so is busybody bullshit. Let those people live their life how they like, if you actually want a moral world. They haven’t done a single person any harm.

    There is absolutely harm being done. It artificially inflates the cost of going to Oilers games, which prices people out of going. I’ve lived in Edmonton for 20 years, I’ve been a fan of the team my whole life, and I’ve been to 3 Oilers games.
    There’s a reason scalping is illegal in many parts of Canada. It isn’t good for anyone but the scalpers.

  127. My Tierless Retina says:

    deardylan: 10 years

    They were probably only $16k 10 yrs ago, but yeah still – YIKES!

    Soup Fascist,

    @Soup – thanks for being a Tier 1%-er. Without people like you, I’d be watching illegal streams of the Seattle Seals.

  128. NYC-Back-to-Tokyo Oil (Gentleman Backpacker) says:

    OilHub:
    Receptor Antagonist,

    You do know he hit 56 points back to back 13-14,14-15…..
    Cool new site called hockeydb……here’s a helpful link for your friend..
    http://www.hockeydb.com/ihdb/stats/pdisplay.php?pid=117125

    It’s a long-running joke.
    Like Lowetide’s hate for Smid.

  129. My Tierless Retina says:

    OilHub: You do know he hit 56 points back to back 13-14,14-15…

    Ask anyone on Lowetide – he hasn’t hit 50 points yet. He also hasn’t kissed a girl.

    Now, I’m going to need someone to go ahead and write a Getting to Know Your Lowtide Memes document, so that LT can create a page that we can refer to.

    Rex, that’d be great.

  130. Android says:

    Munny,

    My original long, carefully thought out post got deleted as spam, so I’m going to be brief.

    I stated at the very beginning of my comment that I was playing Devil’s Advocate. I really don’t have a strong opinion either way here. Market forces drive prices, and if people want to pay them, so be it. That said, it can be frustrating that I can rarely afford tickets. This isn’t the fault of the people reselling the tickets, It’s caused by the prices the organization sets.

    Soup Fascist,

    I’m not bitching about people reselling tickets to reduce the cost of their very large investment, in fact I stated I support people’s abilities to do that. My points were that:

    1. Not all resale tickets are massive markups, some are just people trying not to lose money on a very expensive ticket they unfortunately can’t use.

    2. It frustrates me that the organization has the balls to charge loyal fans like you $24K a year for season tickets to see a team that had consistently been the laughing stock of the hockey world, (and just had a brand new stadium built with public money) when there are excellent teams elsewhere that are stupidly cheap to go see in comparison, in spite of the fact they really shouldn’t be based on the quality of play.

    The value of a ticket is absolutely dependent on what someone is willing to pay.
    I realize now that the $50 thing probably came off as selfish and whiny, but unfortunately I can rarely afford tickets, and I jumped at the chance to go see a game. If I could afford the higher prices, I would gladly reimburse people for the costs they had to pay.

    Sometime in the future when I can pay for it, I would be glad to give you a bit extra for resale tickets, as someone who was willing to pay to support the team, even through the dark years.

  131. Evilas says:

    After this game and considering what ails this team I’d like to see this line-up:

    91-97-98

    Put some speed on McDavid’s wings, give this a go, it seems like teams are having an easy time defending him since his wingers can’t keep up. It’s often a 1 on 2 or 3 and he still does not look like himself yet.

    Why is Jesse sitting while Pakarinen and Cammaleri are playing? Jesse makes positive things happen out there….

    19-93-18

    The Nuge is the most consistent player on this team and has been all season. Maybe his play/effort will help to balance these guys who are probably the most inconsistent of the forwards expected to bring a good amount of Offense to this line-up.

    27-29-58

    I thought this last season and I think so today, this is an effective combination. Drai is not himself though, is he still feeling the effects of the concussion, has he not recovered from the flu? He is putting up points, but they are coming in bunches, and he is not bringing a consistent effort.

    13-16 (when healthy)-44

    This line can put up some offense and JK has the size and speed to have a positive impact where Letestu struggles.

    ML is a good PKer and Face-off man, but he is too slow and he is not doing anything on the PP. Give him some rest and use him when needed.

    These are the 4 best Centers on this team, they should be the foundation for each line as they all have seemed to drive the play, from what I have seen this year. Each line has size, speed and skill and has the potential to bring some offense every game. It would sure be nice if TMac would finally listen to me, why with my 43 years of NHL watchin’ experience that’s gotta account for sumthin’….

    The PP is so static, there is limited net front presence and it seems like everyone is staying on the perimeter, it doesn’t make any sense. It needs a shake-up.

    I suggest:

    1PP 18-27-93
    83-97

    2PP 98-19-29
    58-77

    If you could get OEL for Klefbom, Benning, + the 2018 & 2019 1st Round Picks would you do it?

    Would Arizona?

    What Dman would be a reasonable target to drive goal production on the PP and at what cost?

    In response to my questions, since it is interesting to me and I doubt it will garner much discussion, I took at look at NHL Dmen shots for this season and Oscar is currently 9th in the league: Top 10–> Burns (G1-A10-Pts11), Josi (6-10-16), Hamilton (3-8-11), Pietrangelo (7-13-20), OEL (6-12-18), Letang (1-17-18), Carlson (2-16-18), Jones (3-9-12), Klef (2-4-6), Doughty (4-14-18).

    This is great company, but as we have seen, a significant number of his shots have been of the low danger-type and end up in the mid-section of tenders, resulting in no rebound; it would be interesting to see this type of stat, I don’t know where I might find this….

    Not the type of shot you want to see generated by your top offensive blueliner on the PP on a regular basis. As you can see, he probably should be putting up better numbers, but this team can’t score, however I think it is encouraging to see him here amongst the very best blueliners in the game for two seasons in a row.

    BTW, he is currently 87th in NHL D scoring, right behind Brad Hunt. Last year he was 9th in Dman shots behind: Burns – 320, Byfuglien – 241, Faulk/Ekblad – 225, Hamilton – 222, Karlsson – 218, Josi – 217, Krug – 208, Klef – 201 and Gostisbehere – 198.

    At least it is a good sign that he is still able to get shots on net, but it probably speaks to the terrible job this team is doing at screening and crashing the net/cashing rebounds this season.

    Interestingly, Klefbom was 85th last year in 5v5 Shot attempts, 4th on the team behind Benning, Gryba and Nurse (Davidson also had more). This year he is 25th, 4th on the team behind Nurse, Larsson and Gryba. Nurse is #1 in the league, with 23 more attempts than #2 Hanifin, followed by Giordano, Werenski, Hamiliton, Faulk, Burns, Dillon, Jones and Joakim Ryan (SJS).

    FYI, last year Collin Miller was #3 (#34 this year) , top 10 were: Krug, Doughty, Miller, Muzzin, Hamilton, McNabb, Petry, Martinez, Burns and Orlov.

    Based on this, Oscar is exceptional at generating shots, not sure if there are too many better solutions available. This just firms my belief that the team should stay the course and weather the storm.

    Get rid of expiring contracts such as Letestu, Maroon and Cammaleri, but hang on to the good young players. If they don’t improve their standing, at least they can restock the prospect cupboards with very good prospects in what is supposed to be a very good draft year….

    I have been up way too long….damn Oilers….I love them, but they hate me, lol

    Cheers

  132. Evilas says:

    Georges,

    Thanks for doing this Georges, this does put things into perspective.

    I knew they had a hill to climb, but this one is Everest, not impossible, but it will be a tough go for sure.

    Hey Hunter can I change my guess from 111 pts now?

    Also, do you actually give out prizes? I didn’t get anything last year, lol.

    I will be happy if this team gets more than 90 and I will be upset if there is an attempt to save this season with desperation-level trades of skill, prospects and picks. If this team wants to progress, they need a better prospect pool, as we all know. If Chia goes this route, then IMO this is an indication that he is fearing for his job, if he doesn’t, I believe both he and TMac will be here next year.

  133. GMB3 says:

    treevojo: I believe there are many analytical types that cheer for this team to do well and when they do they are more then happy to show the stats to support such claims.

    But when shit goes south as this season has they disregard their usual go to stats to dig “deeper” to find the true reason this team has struggled.

    If this seasons numbers could be attributed to a team like the Arizona coyotes or last years Florida Panthers we might be hearing a different tune.

    I respectfully disagree. Yes they do dig deeper, but if you’ve paid attention to what Gmoney has been tweeting and what Woodguy has found in their deep dives, they’ve found evidence that their corsi #’s as well as other fancies have been inflated by a higher percentage of Shots from the point.

    This makes sense, as the stats they value aren’t explaining the results so naturally they look for reasons why. I don’t think it’s shifting the goal posts. And I do agree that if they were from a different team, they may be more likely to just accept those stats on their face value and not dig as deep, as they aren’t as passionate about those teams. That’s my 0.02$ though.

    Also the fancies from the last 10 or so games haven’t looked as good as the first 15ish games, they’ve been getting worse and it matches my eye.

  134. GMB3 says:

    Lucinius,

    Excellent post. Many good points brought up.

  135. GMB3 says:

    treevojo: That’s great that you feel this way but the true question is what you base it on.

    You may be the exception but I am pretty comfortable in saying that most people that predicteddebrincat to be a better prospect then benson haven’t seen either of the two play live more then 5 times.

    Well he absolutely dominated the OHL and Benson has struggled with injuries so I think it’s fair to be dissapointment with the choice. I’ve seen Debrincat more than Benson in jr and I kind of thought he was the next Robbie Schremp, and there were plenty of red flags in regards to what had been reported about his effort level and he also got left off the WJ team last year, so clearly a lot of other people weren’t as high on him.

  136. GMB3 says:

    Soup Fascist: I have had Season Tix for 12 years and now have seen all of 2 years of playoffs. My current tix cost me $24K annually. I don’t want to add up what I have spent over the last 12 years to watch generally putrid hockey. I go to the majority of games.

    If I choose to sell the odd game to likely fans of the Leafs and Habs at a marked up price, in order to offset my significant costs associated with the investment in this team – so be it. My Ticket / My Choice. I also donate tickets to silent auctions for charities. Again – my choice. Feel free to take it elsewhere, Chum.

    Ferraro hasn’t yet patented the word, “Chum” has he?

    In other news what do you do for work and are you hiring

  137. OriginalPouzar says:

    Benson with the assist on the tieing goal with 30 second left and scores the OT winner.

  138. OriginalPouzar says:

    NYC-Back-to-Tokyo Oil (Gentleman Backpacker): Go Benson!

    (It is possible to have believed at the time and still now that DeBrincat was the better choice, but still cheer on the chosen prospect because he is part of the Oilers’ organization and this team will be better for it if he turns out to be a keeper_.

    Of course, not only possible but logical.

    Management will make numerous moves over time that don’t jive 100% with what the fans (or a particular fan) wants – in particular at the draft table. I don’t see why any Oiler fan would cheer for the acquired player/prospect without exception.

  139. OriginalPouzar says:

    Evilas:
    treevojo,

    You make a good point and the team has FINALLY won 2 in a row.BUT, this team doesn’t look as good as it did at the beginning of the year.

    And they had a bruutal effort vs Buffalo who are a bottom-feeder and had lost 7 in a row, after their best effort of the season the game before vs Detroit.

    They let the last-place Yotes run their show in this game and in OT.The PP did not look dangerous at all.This team should be much much better.None of this makes sense.

    As a hardcore supporter you can cheer for your team, but you are allowed to be frustrated.The expectations for this team were sky-high and it appears that their season is already in jeopardy.

    Why would a fan of this team not have any criticisms????If any fan deserves to vent, it is clearly any fan of this team.

    Nope, the team absolutely did not look great tonight but, at the end of the day, they got the two points and a ROW.

    Sometimes teams win games where they don’t play well or that they don’t deserve just like they lose games that they deserved to win.

    Connor McDavid had zero points and a number of giveaways and the Oilers won – that’s a positive.

    You mention losing to a team that had lost 7 straight – on that note, we should mention beating a team that had won 4 straight.

    Yes, ARI is last in the NHL but they’d also won about half their games in their last 10 – there is parity in this league and any team is tough to beat.

    They still don’t look great consistently but hopefully that comes – winning games they don’t deserve is actually key to getting back in the race – they won’t look good every game.

    Big game at home on Tuesday.

    Go Oilers!

  140. deardylan says:

    GMB3: In other news what do you do for work and are you hiring

    GMB

    Yeah it would be interesting to know what type of work people do when they are not reading/contributing to Lowetide! Always wondered what the quant/data guys do when they are not crunching stats.

    I am an MBA teacher, entrepreneur- leadership trainer and coach and Oilers fan since 1990 when I moved from T.O. to E-town. I couldn’t handle LEAFS ever (Harold Ballard drove me crazy when I read about his mismanagement of players as I delivered the Toronto Star in my youth) and preferred following stories from teams out West especially ones that included Glen Sather or Wayne or the Moose.

    Found my dream job at 22 and now almost 42.

    If I could go back to 22 years and give my younger self advice I would have become a sports coach at a younger age so I could be a GM. Luckily here in Asia I learned we get the chance to be reincarnated again and come back as badass bodhisavas like Glen Sather. #TeacherThisLife #GMNext!

    Who else is out there? What do you do when your not surfing the High and Lowetides?

  141. Woodguy v2.0 says:

    Lowetide: Is that 5×5 or overall? You fucking bastard.

    I love you.

  142. OriginalPouzar says:

    If you could get OEL for Klefbom, Benning, + the 2018 & 2019 1st Round Picks would you do it?

    Would Arizona?

    I love me some OEL but I don’t think the Oilers can make that trade.

    Firstly, the 2018 first round pick is all but untouchable right now – of course OEL is an elite d-man at the beginning of his prime but still.

    The issue here is OEL is signed for one year after this one – he could be gone after a season and a half and, in order to keep him, its going to cost about double what Klef’s cap hit is for the next 6 years.

    Can we afford that?

    Take out the 2018 first round pick and I think that’s plenty (Klef, Benning and a 2019 first round pick- that’s a lot of assets).

    Still not sure I’d do it because of the short term left on OEL’s contract and the cost it would take to keep him.

  143. NYC-Back-to-Tokyo Oil (Gentleman Backpacker) says:

    OriginalPouzar,

    I think the question you have to ask yourself is: is he enough of an upgrade on Klef+Nurse+Sekera on the left side to warrant giving up the assets and signing him long-term (7.5m-8m per?).

    I think if he were right-handed I would do the 3-for-1 but would prefer to keep Benning and move another lefty prospect instead.

    If there were a right-handed equivalent to OEL it would shore up the weak right side and you could run

    Nurse-Righty OEL
    Sekera-Larsson
    Russell-Benning

    and be set for years. Unfortunately, Doughty is not likely to be available unless the Kings miss the playoffs and he asks out.

    Heh!

  144. Kinger_Oil.redux says:

    Georges<

    – So is that more or less chance than scoring on the first shot: haha!

    – I'm looking at the table you provided: thanks, the pivot first goals tab: 136 observed goals: is that sum of the first goals from all teams in the league for the season?

    – So 5.5% of total goals are scored on first shot? It is interesting that so many of the goals are scored on the first 11 shots, if I'm reading your data set correctly

    – Let me now if I'm reading correctly before I proceed

  145. Soup Fascist says:

    Android:
    Munny,

    My original long, carefully thought out post got deleted as spam, so I’m going to be brief.

    I stated at the very beginning of my comment that I was playing Devil’s Advocate. I really don’t have a strong opinion either way here. Market forces drive prices, and if people want to pay them, so be it. That said, it can be frustrating that I can rarely afford tickets. This isn’t the fault of the people reselling the tickets, It’s caused by the prices the organization sets.

    Soup Fascist,

    I’m not bitching about people reselling tickets to reduce the cost of their very large investment, in fact I stated I support people’s abilities to do that. My points were that:

    1. Not all resale tickets are massive markups, some are just people trying not to lose money on a very expensive ticket they unfortunately can’t use.

    2. It frustrates me that the organization has the balls to charge loyal fans like you $24K a year for season tickets to see a team that had consistently been the laughing stock of the hockey world, (and just had a brand new stadium built with public money) when there are excellent teams elsewhere that are stupidly cheap to go see in comparison, in spite of the fact they really shouldn’t be based on the quality of play.

    The value of a ticket is absolutely dependent on what someone is willing to pay.
    I realize now that the $50 thing probably came off as selfish and whiny, but unfortunately I can rarely afford tickets, and I jumped at the chance to go see a game. If I could afford the higher prices, I would gladly reimburse people for the costs they had to pay.

    Sometime in the future when I can pay for it, I would be glad to give you a bit extra for resale tickets, as someone who was willing to pay to support the team, even through the dark years.

    Fair enough. And while I replied to you in terms of a ticket’s value, my general belief is that I suspect most people selling either can’t go to games or are selectively selling the few games a year to offset their costs. Specifically this is Toronto and Montreal.

    I have found most games I list (usually five to ten pairs a year) are at or below my cost and certainly below Ticket Window cost for Single Game seats. I think you can get a bit more for weekend games, but the NHL seems to schedule so few of those for the Oilers (unlike this POS Leafs) that I tend to want to go myself as I don’t have to be up at 6:00 am.

    My overall point is you have a couple games that people will pay a premium for and numerous games that if you want to sell you take a bath on. Actual scalpers I assume are making money but TBH other than the odd time, gouging Leafs and Habs fans, I would rather give unused tix to friends family or charity. There is a twinge of guilt that I am exposing my seat neighbors to – ugh- Leaf fans once a year but they typically forgive me if I spring for a beer or two the next game.

  146. hunter1909 says:

    Evilas,

    Congrats on your brilliant victory. Please email: hunter2909@Safe-mail.net for info re your upcoming prize.

  147. sliderule says:

    Staples gave deserved hard marks to oilers

    When does the next oiler go boo hoo poor me

  148. hags9k says:

    While happy they pulled out the win, I can’t help but feel extremely concerned that they still didn’t feel the need to play 60 minutes…

    I would run these lines vs the blue scum.

    19-97-98
    27-93-58
    91-29-18
    13-55-44

  149. Jethro Tull says:

    NYC-Back-to-Tokyo Oil (Gentleman Backpacker): It’s a long-running joke.
    Like Lowetide’s hate for Smid.

    That one isn’t a joke. LT does hate Smid. Ever since Smid cut into the parking space LT was waiting for at Costco.

  150. NYC-Back-to-Tokyo Oil (Gentleman Backpacker) says:

    Jethro Tull: That one isn’t a joke. LT does hate Smid. Ever since Smid cut into the parking space LT was waiting for at Costco.

    Well he got him traded so it was no laughing matter. Somewhere Marc Antoine Pouliot is shedding a tear.

  151. OriginalPouzar says:

    hags9k:
    While happy they pulled out the win, I can’t help but feel extremely concerned that they still didn’t feel the need to play 60 minutes…

    I would run these lines vs the blue scum.

    19-97-98
    27-93-58
    91-29-18
    13-55-44

    Given Todd did blend it up a bit in the third period, I think an argument can be made for some tweaks to a winning lineup and what you have done makes sense.

    As per the third period, Cammy was demoted to the fourth line and I think he can stay there for the next game – Pak comes out of the lineup and JP is re-inserted in to Cammy’s former spot at 1RW.

    Its almost a no-brainer to me.

  152. Pescador says:

    sliderule:
    Staples gave deserved hard marks to oilers

    When does the next oiler go boohoo poor me

    Not exactly sure but I’m certain it will be after they are overpaid & underperforming

  153. Pouzar says:

    JimmyV1965: Not sure if it’s coaching. PP2 is sooooo much better than PP1.

    That’s coaching if you get what I’m sayin.

  154. Pouzar says:

    GMB3: I respectfully disagree. Yes they do dig deeper, but if you’ve paid attention to what Gmoney has been tweeting and what Woodguy has found in their deep dives, they’ve found evidence that their corsi #’s as well as other fancies have been inflated by a higher percentage of Shots from the point.

    This makes sense, as the stats they value aren’t explaining the results so naturally they look for reasons why. I don’t think it’s shifting the goal posts. And I do agree that if they were from a different team, they may be more likely to just accept those stats on their face value and not dig as deep, as they aren’t as passionate about those teams. That’s my 0.02$ though.

    Also the fancies from the last 10 or so games haven’t looked as good as the first 15ish games, they’ve been getting worse and it matches my eye.

    We are a top 10 team in HDCF%….I just don’t understand this shit anymore so I could be full of it.

    EDIT: 12th now…5th in Raw HDCF

  155. russ99 says:

    This was an interesting and eye opening article on season tickets:

    https://www.theringer.com/nfl/2017/8/16/16147716/season-tickets-end-secondary-sellers

    The Oilers being partially exempt since they sell out every game.

  156. Melvis says:

    Munny,

    I like the colors. And the tie he chose was kinda natty with the jacket too. It’s as if he hired a dresser of Brit extraction overnight. And viewed symbolically, he might have been yelling, ” Check, you bastards!”…cause we’re going to need some really serious forecheck against the Leafs. And back check. And neutral zone clog.

    Did i miss anything;-)?

    Oh yeah…a loosely tied raw silk scarf in a tertiary color. Even Cherry wouldn’t dare. Red blooded Canadian boys and all.

  157. Johnny Larue says:

    Soup Fascist: Fair enough.And while I replied to you in terms of a ticket’s value, my general belief is that I suspect most people selling either can’t go to games or are selectively selling the few games a year to offset their costs. Specifically this is Toronto and Montreal.

    I have found most games I list (usually five to ten pairs a year) are at or below my cost and certainly below Ticket Window cost for Single Game seats. I think you can get a bit more for weekend games, but the NHL seems to schedule so few of those for the Oilers (unlike this POS Leafs) that I tend to want to go myself as I don’t have to be up at 6:00 am.

    My overall point is you have a couple games that people will pay a premium for and numerous games that if you want to sell you take a bath on. Actual scalpers I assume are making money but TBH other than the odd time, gouging Leafs and Habs fans, I would rather give unused tix to friends family or charity.There is a twinge of guilt that I am exposing my seat neighbors to – ugh- Leaf fans once a year but they typically forgive me if I spring for a beer or two the next game.

    I have been a season ticket holder for 23 years and this year I sold my tickets to the Leafs at 2.5 times my cost. After having to go to the games and put up with idiot Leaf fans which just makes my blood pressure go through the roof, this year I decided to sell them at a hugely inflated prices. I am trying to do the same for Montreal that way even if the Oilers lose I have at least the satisfaction that my season’s tickets have been subsidized by Leafs and Habs fans. If the Oilers could beat them both 8-0 that would be the sweetest deal of all. But mostly I give my tickets away and some years it was hard to find anyone to take them so don’t criticize the people who pay the freight for this team for trying to recuperate some of the tremendous costs associated with being a tier 1 fan.

  158. Georges says:

    Kinger_Oil.redux,

    – Teams scored their first goal on their first shot 136 times. They scored their first goal on their second shot 188 times. And on their third shot 169 times. And so on.

    – So they scored their first goal on their first shot 5.5% of the games they played, on their second shot 7.6% of the games they played, etc.

    – The model assumes that teams can just keep shooting away until you see your first goal. But, of course, games can end with a team not scoring at all in regulation or OT. I could improve the fit by taking this into account but I think the point’s clear as it is.

  159. Kinger_Oil.redux says:

    Georges:
    Kinger_Oil.redux,

    – Teams scored their first goal on their first shot 136 times. They scored their first goal on their second shot 188 times. And on their third shot 169 times. And so on.

    – So they scored their first goal on their first shot 5.5% of the games they played, on their second shot 7.6% of the games they played, etc.

    – The model assumes that teams can just keep shooting away until you see your first goal. But, of course, games can end with a team not scoring at all in regulation or OT. I could improve the fit by taking this into account but I think the point’s clear as it is.

    – thanks for this!

    – Right so if teams score on 5.5% of first goal, and in 18 games Talbot let it in 4 times (22%): he’s exactly 4 times worse than average..Which was the original query: he’s much worse than one would expect in terms of making the first save. I had the impression that you felt that given the small sample, this fit into normal distribution.

    – That’s three additional games than normal, where team is behind 8-ball right away. It doesn’t explain everything, but for sure its a factor: Team struggles, Talbot lets in too many 1st goals, they lose those games because just like the Friedman quote about Buffalo: when you are behind you start panicking, and don’t play the system…

    – It is interesting that as the game wears on the less goals are scored, and not just a normal distribution, as I had assumed. You were right on this, I was wrong.

    – So going back to original query, when Jimmy uncovered the 4 in 18, I thought this helped explain some of the system thingy, you said no this is normal distribution.

    – Mathematically you “could” be correct that 4x in small sample falls within norm, but practically, they have been behind 8-ball a lot more than normal, and that effects play going forward IMO…

    – So we can’t do this, but take away 3 losses because Talbot is sh%t (he’s not, I’m just saying), and we are a 13-10 team. That’s a lot better.

    * Of course I don’t totally believe this, but its amazing how you can dig into things and find nuggets like this George. Next time a team scores on first shot and my buddy says: “man I can’t believe that: I can be well that’s a 5.5% chance!” Good times!

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