Angel from Montgomery

My melancholy song is “Angel from Montgomery” and I’ve talked about it before but never about why it comes to my mind from time to time. I didn’t discover the song until the 1970’s but the mental connection was formed in the 1960’s when I was a child.

My Grandfather, who I loved and he me, had an awful temper. He used to yell so loud and long I hid behind my Uncle’s bed until it stopped. I was in my 20’s before realizing I could no longer remember the sound of Grandpa’s voice when he yelled like that, but it was many years later before I let go of the feeling. My Grandpa gave me two great things from those yelling episodes: First, the overwhelming desire to get the hell away from anyone who is abusive, and second the realization of what a great man I had in my Dad.

There’s a line in “Angel from Montgomery” that talks about living with someone who could leave in the morning, work all day, come back home and still not make an effort to connect, to communicate. One of the reasons I love country music so much is that it can make a connection between something from your past that is painful to remember, and find the words to make you feel you’re not alone. There are times when I read the comments section of this blog that “Angel from Montgomery”comes to mind. Important to remember it’s just a game, with sticks and pucks, and your reality, your real life, is connected only to the point you allow it. Be well, friend.

THE ATHLETIC

The special Lowetide offer is here. Today’s story is about Peter Chiarelli’s avail in which he doubled down on not taking advantage of Connor McDavid’s final entry deal.

DIRTY WATER, YEAR OVER YEAR

  • Oilers in November 2015: 4-7-2, goal differential -9 (10 points in 13 games)
  • Oilers in November 2016: 5-9-1, goal differential -3 (11 points in 15 games)
  • Oilers in November 2017: 7-7-1, goal differential -3

Well the Oilers are going to get at least 15 points out of the month and that’s more than the previous two seasons. Even if you consider games played, this has been the most productive November since Todd McLellan arrived.

AFTER 25, YEAR OVER YEAR

  • Oilers 15-16: 8-15-2, goal differential -16
  • Oilers 16-17: 13-10-2, goal differential +10
  • Oilers 17-18: 10-13-2, goal differential -13

This month has been a lot about bewilderment, anger, confusion, rage, and for much of last night, melancholy. There was a camera shot of Todd McLellan late in the third period with the score 2-1 Arizona, and the SN producer held it a long time, too long—except that it was perfect drama. I cannot imagine the pressure Edmonton’s coaching staff is under, I was pleased things went their way.

WHAT TO EXPECT FROM NOVEMBER

  • At home to: Pittsburgh, New Jersey, Detroit (Expected: 2-1-0) (Actual 1-2-0)
  • On the road to: NYI, New Jersey, NYR, Washington (Expected: 1-2-1) (Actual: 2-1-1)
  • At home to: Vegas, St. Louis (Expected 1-1-0) (Actual: 1-1-0)
  • On the road to: Dallas, St. Louis, Detroit, Buffalo, Boston (Expected 2-2-1) (Actual 2-3-0)
  • At home to: Arizona, Toronto (Expected 1-1-0) (Actual 1-0-0)
  • Overall expected result: 7-7-2, 16 points in 16 games 
  • Current results: 7-7-1, 15 points in 15 games

Huh. Allow me a ‘puffy shirt moment’ as my original prediction for the month is going to be pretty damned close to the actual November record. I tried patting myself on the back and now have at least one thing in a sling, but am still pleased.

DEFENSE, LAST NIGHT

  • Nurse-Larsson were 23-16 in 18:40 together, 0-1 GF 5×5. Darnell didn’t get over in time for the last point-blank chance to go in, but the pairing spent much of the evening on the good side of the puck. Went 11-6 against Perlini-Stepan-Rieder. That’s a good line, they were scoreless. Nurse transporting really helps this team, still needs to get the puck transitioned to a forward a-sap.
  • Klefbom-Benning went 15-10 in 13:49 together, Benning had a weird night away from Oscar. Went 1-5 with Russell and scored, went 4-2 and the team scored. Benning  went 4-10 against Domi-Dvorak-Fischer, 7-2 against the Keller line. Oscar is starting to build it back now, some good games in a row.
  • Russell-Auvitu were an adventure, it’s like the opponents have a super ball or a fire hose. Holy lord. Went 11-21, 2-8 in HDSC’s and 8-13 against Keller-Richardson-Strome. Auvitu is a rover.
  • Cam Talbot stopped 29 of 31, .935.
  • NaturalStatTrick and NHL.com.

FORWARDS, LAST NIGHT

  • Pakarinen-Letestu-Kassian went 5-5 and got the Oilers on the score sheet. Kassian on a breakaway looks like a man shot out of a cannon. That was a big goal. If Boston-Arizona ends up being a turning point in the season, remember the two regulation goals along with the Nuge event.
  • Caggiula-Draisaitl-Strome went 16-11 and 3-2 in HDSC’s. Went 9-5 against Perlini-Stepan-Rieder and 6-3 against OEL. I like this line, LD-Strome have chem. Leon seemed to be laboring at times.
  • Maroon-Nuge-Slepyshev went 10-16 and 1-1 GF. Got caved in HDSC’s (0-4 at 5×5) and were 4-10 against Domi-Dvorak-Fischer. Nuge’s goal was absolute fire, I loved it! Music! Maroon’s early game pass to his own slot on an opponent’s stick surprised everyone but Cam Talbot who saved him.
  • Lucic-McDavid-Cammalleri went 10-12 together and 2-4 in the dangers. No way McDavid should be playing with wingers who produce 2-4. No chancey, Mr. Whalen. Went 2-8 against OEL (man he is good) and 4-9 against Keller-Richardson-Strome. Four giveaways by 97, he gave at least two gifts to 27 who couldn’t cash. I know you want unicorns, I want McDavid setting up the best available.

TRADES

  • Pierre Lebrun: “He’s been working the phones like crazy. I talked to a GM today who said no one is busier and as active as Peter Chiarelli.” Source

Based on PC’s bringing up the name Cam Talbot (unsolicited!) yesterday, I’d say the team is in the market for a goalie. For me, Talbot should correct and I’d aggressively pursue a RHD who can skate plus move the puck, along with a scoring winger for 97.

Benson is now 14gp, 9-12-21 for the season (NHLE: 35.7) and what’s more important he’s playing a lot and we haven’t heard about any injury issues. With his past issues, important to remember the GP total is the most important stat.

Oilers prospect goalies were in a collective slump for some time this season, but they’re coming on now and Skinner is joining the party. I’ll have my 11-20 Winter Prospect list up at The Athletic in the next day or so, Nick Ellis (No. 10) is the only goalie listed so far.

LOWDOWN WITH LOWETIDE

A fabulous show because of great guests on the way today, TSN1260 beginning at 10. Scheduled to appear:

  • Darcy McLeod, Because Oilers. Last night, PC’s presser, who should they target?
  • Jon Abbott, TSN Vancouver. The Canucks are good!
  • Corey Pronman, The Athletic. Corey’s recent review of the 2015 draft is compelling and we’ll talk about the crop this year.
  • Josh Lewenberg, TSN Toronto. Raptors update!

10-1260 text @Lowetide on twitter. See you on the radio!

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177 Responses to "Angel from Montgomery"

  1. OriginalPouzar says:

    That was not a great game last night and a every uneven performance from team, however, at the end of the day, they got two points.

    Yup, they got a bit lucky with posts and such but how many times this year have the Oilers hit a couple of posts in a close game?

    Talbot played decently but didn’t steal the win and McDavid got no points and they still won.

    Last time they won without McDavid getting any points was last February (a 1-0 OT victory).

    Some poor performances from the likes of Drai and Maroon but some nice performances from the likes of Kassian and the 2nd pairing.

    Can’t wait until Thursday.

  2. vinotintazo says:

    Any of you remember Nurse’s Back check near the end of the game where he blew past everyone?
    I’m impressed by this kid this season. Wowzers

  3. frjohnk says:

    Strome looks better as a winger with Drai than as a center. He reminds me of Ganger as a center when placed down the middle

  4. meanashell11 says:

    No chancey, Mr. Whelan!

    Been a long time since I heard that. My kids hear me say it all the time but they have no context!

    Speaking of context, great song. Absolutely loved it.

    I thought the game last night was very choppy. Oilers could not get any flow going as Ari were like pinballs. I can now see why Ari are so bad. But the Oil survived and Nuge saved the day. Good enough for me.

  5. Jethro Tull says:

    And you stay well, LT.

  6. SHILL83 says:

    19-97-91
    27-29-58
    18-93-98
    16-55-44
    McD needs some faster wingers. Was boring to watch him out there with 13 and 27. And with McD on the ice it should never be boring.

    25-6
    77-83
    4-81

    PP1
    98-29-27
    77-97
    Let McD try and get the pass through the seem and feed JP with the one timer.
    Have Lucic park his ass in front of the net and just screen the goalie!
    Teams have to focus on 29 and 97 with there passing and with that try and work the Capitals style PP and let JP just hammer that puck.

    PP2
    18-93-19
    83-58
    Let Nuge try and feed the pass across to Strome for a one timer.
    Have Maroon screen the goalie.
    Also can look at setting up Slepy for the shot also.

  7. Jaxon says:

    Why does the fastest player in the NHL have the two slowest linemates (is Cammalleri faster than Strome?) on the team? I’d like to see McDavid with Slepyshev or Caggiula on the left, and Kassian or Puljujarvi on the right for a few games to give them a chance to find chemistry. I think Kassian has just as much skill as Maroon and Lucic, but because of his past (off ice problems) he’s probably never really had that opportunity. Don’t forget he was drafted 13th overall. I also think Slepyshev has been handled about as poorly as any prospect (EDIT: prior to joining the Oilers). He was once a phenom in Russia (KHL #1 overall) who has been been put in poor situations to thrive since he was 15 years old (already playing against 40 yr old profesisonals). I think he might be a late bloomer because of it and putting him with McDavid might boost his confidence with the puck and unlock his scoring potential. If MacLellan unlocked those two players as bonafide scorers it would be huge for the team’s depth and cap issues.

  8. Kinger_Oil.redux says:

    – Your yelling Grandpa story no doubt resonates with a lot of us who endured family members with volcanic tempers…

    – Your RHD thing is interesting. Although Washington likely doesn’t need another scoring winger, a Maroon for Carlson type scenario would be ideal: expiring contracts on both sides, and not sure if they re-sign with their respective teams…

    – Now RHD are worth waaaay more than scoring W, so don’t know what else you’d have to give up *Ducks*

  9. NYC-Back-to-Tokyo Oil (Gentleman Backpacker) says:

    LT,

    Just going to leave this here for you. You rock that puffy shirt, good sir! Wear it with pride!

    https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=iRER1Rbg9_o

  10. frjohnk says:

    Jaxon: Why does the fastest player in the NHL have the two slowest linemates (is Cammalleri faster than Strome?) on the team?

    Oilers want to make it fair for the opposition?

  11. Pouzar says:

    Maroon-Nuge-Slepyshev fancies didn’t match the eye to me as I guess they need to better translate that cycle game to better chances but I like what they did. Slepy is a player and I’ll take that to my grave!

  12. OriginalPouzar says:

    I assume that Auvitu’s HDCs were similar to Russell’s?

  13. OriginalPouzar says:

    Letestu did have a decent game – I give credence to his low ES TOI.

    We know (and he’s said) that he plays his best when his minutes aren’t too high.

  14. OriginalPouzar says:

    I really likes Strome’s offensive game by eye last night – he’s more confident with the puck and he’s making plays and is dangerous at times.

    He is showing some skill now.

  15. OriginalPouzar says:

    I listened to Chiarelli speak quite a bit yesterday (missed him on Conan last night and Regis this morning though).

    Yes, he did mention Talbot’s game quite a bit as one of the factors why we have had a tough start to the year. I wouldn’t go so far as to say that he was throwing him under the bus but a definite acknowledgement of under-performance this year vis-a-vis expectations.

    I never got the vibe that it meant he was looking to acquire a tender. I mean, he isn’t going to acquire a starter replacement is he?

    Are you thinking a more proven back-up?

  16. OriginalPouzar says:

    I’ve been following all our prospects in the CHL closely and both Wells and Skinner had struggled for 2-4 weeks. They both have bounced back over the last week which is great to see.

    LT, what are your thoughts on Shane Starrett’s future with the organization?

  17. OriginalPouzar says:

    vinotintazo:
    Any of you remember Nurse’s Back check near the end of the game where he blew past everyone?
    I’m impressed by this kid this season.Wowzers

    I do remember that actually – it looked like the Coyotes were going to have a 2 on 1 – I think it was Keller (or maybe Domi) with the puck and Nurse zoomed back to position with relative ease.

    If we are thinking of the same play.

  18. vinotintazo says:

    OriginalPouzar: I do remember that actually – it looked like the Coyotes were going to have a 2 on 1 – I think it was Keller (or maybe Domi) with the puck and Nurse zoomed back to position with relative ease.

    If we are thinking of the same play.

    Yep thats the one.

  19. OriginalPouzar says:

    With respect to the lines for next game, I think there is an easy and obvious change that results in the following:

    19-97-98
    27-93-58
    91-29-18
    13-55-44

    Given it was an uneven performance last night and Todd did blend it up a bit in the third period, I think an argument can be made for some tweaks to a winning lineup.

    As per the third period, Cammy was demoted to the fourth line and I think he can stay there for the next game – Pak comes out of the lineup and JP is re-inserted in to Cammy’s former spot at 1RW.

    Its almost a no-brainer to me.

  20. dustrock says:

    It is laughable that the best player in the world has Lucic and Cammalleri as his wingers.

    Why do I continue to see these roster moves as McLellan trolling Chiarelli?

    “He thinks there’s no problem with our team speed? I’ll show him!”

  21. fishman says:

    Getting 2 pts last night was awesome. So why was I left feeling this team is again wandering in the wilderness?? Hearing Peter was desperately looking to make a trade is downright scary. What will he give up and what will it bring back?(please not Nuge) Hopefully it was first game back after an eastern trip, heavy legs, flu hangover and that they come out flying against the Leafs (they better or it could be embarrassing).

    We could really use a couple of young, fast skilled wingers as well as a couple of D that can move the puck. That is really too much to hope for at this point in the season. If nothing else get Connor better (faster) wingers!

  22. OriginalPouzar says:

    fishman:

    We could really use a couple of young, fast skilled wingers as well as a couple of D that can move the puck. That is really too much to hope for at this point in the season. If nothing else get Connor better (faster) wingers!

    How about:

    1) Jesse Puljijarvi

    2) Andrej Sekera

    ???

  23. JimmyV1965 says:

    Is Khaira hurt? I don’t understand why he’s not in the lineup. He was playing well.

  24. texmex says:

    What would it take to get Jonathan Marchessault out of LV? He’s a UFA at the end of the year though. I think he’d look good on McDavid’s RW.

    Maroon and a 2nd? Caggs and a 2nd?

    It’s just a pipe dream I know.

  25. fishman says:

    OriginalPouzar:
    With respect to the lines for next game, I think there is an easy and obvious change that results in the following:

    19-97-98
    27-93-58
    91-29-18
    13-55-44

    Given it was an uneven performance last night and Todd did blend it up a bit in the third period, I think an argument can be made for some tweaks to a winning lineup.

    As per the third period, Cammy was demoted to the fourth line and I think he can stay there for the next game – Pak comes out of the lineup and JP is re-inserted in to Cammy’s former spot at 1RW.

    Its almost a no-brainer to me.

    Given what we have I like that line up. Make the best of what you have. Hope Todd reads this blog!

  26. Pouzar says:

    texmex:
    What would it take to get Jonathan Marchessault out of LV?

    1st rd pick. Protected.

  27. Bruce McCurdy says:

    JimmyV1965,

    Khaira has a lower body injury. Last week he had an upper body injury.

    He joins Slepyshev & Caggiula in the Department of Injury Prone Young Wingers. It’s depressing

  28. JimmyV1965 says:

    I really think JP should be dumped in the minors and forgotten about. Bring him up when he is dominating at that level or the team is playing well. He’s not going to solve any problems here and we shouldn’t expect him to. We keep doing the same thing with thes prospects and expecting different results.

  29. speeds says:

    What EDM does with Talbot is interesting to me, provided his play recovers and he can return real value. Whats an extension cost, how long would you want to sign him?

    I dont know if moving him is necessarily a terrible idea if you prob dont want to re-sign him based on contract? Talbot is in year 2 of a 3 year extension at 4.17M AAV, UFA in summer 2019 at age 32 (turns 32 that summer). how many years would you want to commit to him at that age, for how much?

    FWIW, I also wouldnt want to see EDM trade for Rask, for some similar, related but not identical reasons.

  30. JimmyV1965 says:

    Bruce McCurdy:
    JimmyV1965,

    Khaira has a lower body injury. Last week he had an upper body injury.

    He joins Slepyshev & Caggiula in the Department of Injury Prone Young Wingers. It’s depressing

    Thanks BM. Of course he’s hurt.

  31. JimmyV1965 says:

    speeds:
    What EDM does with Talbot is interesting to me, provided his play recovers and he can return real value. Whats an extension cost, how long would you want to sign him?

    I dont know if moving him is necessarily a terrible idea if you prob dont want to re-sign him based on contract? Talbot is in year 2 of a 3 year extension at 4.17M AAV, UFA in summer 2019 at age 32 (turns 32 that summer).how many years would you want to commit to him at that age, for how much?

    FWIW, I also wouldnt want to see EDM trade for Rask, for some similar, related but not identical reasons.

    Regardless of how Talbot plays in the next couple years, that contract has the potential to be very dangerous. 32 usually marks the beginning of the end for goalies.

  32. Woodguy v2.0 says:

    Games back of Wild Card spot (held by CGY, CHI,DAL:

    Wildcard 0
    COL -1
    MIN -2
    VAN -2
    ANA -3
    EDM -6
    ARI -14

    Games back of 3rd place in Pacific (held by SJS)
    SJS 0
    CGY -2
    COL -3
    VAN -4
    ANA -5
    EDM -8
    ARI -16

    EDM went 35-16-7 after November last year.

    If they have that identical points percentage again (assuming a loss tomorrow) that’s 96 points.

  33. frjohnk says:

    speeds:
    What EDM does with Talbot is interesting to me, provided his play recovers and he can return real value. Whats an extension cost, how long would you want to sign him?

    I dont know if moving him is necessarily a terrible idea if you prob dont want to re-sign him based on contract? Talbot is in year 2 of a 3 year extension at 4.17M AAV, UFA in summer 2019 at age 32 (turns 32 that summer).how many years would you want to commit to him at that age, for how much?

    FWIW, I also wouldnt want to see EDM trade for Rask, for some similar, related but not identical reasons.

    Moving forward the goalie issue is something to be concerned about
    Edmonton is not a goalie factory but a goalie graveyard.
    We have a couple of prospects but really nothing that would can count on becoming a number 1 goalie in the next couple of years.

    Is Talbot the guy we run with? If its the Talbot of last year, Id say yes, but then the question as you are alluding to, is how far of a runway do we have with Talbot in the next contract? How much will Chia pay him and for how much term?

    If its no, we are out of the playoffs this year and we have need spend some more currency (prospect and or picks) to get someone who can get the job done next fall. Get that bet wrong and…..

  34. frjohnk says:

    JimmyV1965: Regardless of how Talbot plays in the next couple years, that contract has the potential to be very dangerous. 32 usually marks the beginning of the end for goalies.

    We have talked about cap hell in the future but that is with our 2 goalies making only about $5M between them. Imagine a cap hell with a Dallas Stars goalie sitiuation of last year.

  35. NYC-Back-to-Tokyo Oil (Gentleman Backpacker) says:

    I think Talbot is in the Craig Anderson tier of goalies.
    Also he should have less wear and tear than many others due to his late blossoming as a starter. However the Oilers are running him into the ground because TMc does not trust Brossoit and Chia won’t get him a better backup.

    On the whole I would probably go 3yrs x 5m on an extesion. No more.

  36. OriginalPouzar says:

    JimmyV1965:
    Is Khaira hurt? I don’t understand why he’s not in the lineup. He was playing well.

    Yes, he has a lower body injury (I believe a groin).

  37. speeds says:

    frjohnk:
    Is Talbot the guy we run with?If its the Talbot of last year, Id say yes, but then the question as you are alluding to, is how far of a runway do we have with Talbot in the next contract?How much will Chia pay him and for how much term?

    If its no, we are out of the playoffs this year and we have need spend some more currency (prospect and or picks) to get someone who can get the job done next fall.Get that bet wrong and…..

    One can get that bet wrong by keeping Talbot or trading him. If EDM is looking like they’ll miss, but Talbot recovers, has value and will entertain a trade (given a scenario where he knows EDM wont re-sign him for what he is looking for but an acquiring team seems willing to look at an extension in te summer at terms more or less in his range, certainly might look at it) , it makes sense to at least consider it?

  38. McSorley33 says:

    Pierre Lebrun: “He’s been working the phones like crazy. I talked to a GM today who said no one is busier and as active as Peter Chiarelli.” Source
    ***********************************************************************************************************

    Garth Snow on line 1 Mr. Chiarelli….

  39. Georges says:

    Cammalleri on the first line. JP in the press box. Sigh.

    Not sure if anyone noticed but Talbot had a fantastic game last night.

  40. jtblack says:

    **Pursue an offensive RHD and Scoring Winger **

    Offensive RHD has been on the list since 2015 hire. This team does not win Stanley without one

    Winger help coming but 1 or 2 yrs away Hope he doesnt pay too much to bring one in now.

    Some say Edm has $12 Mil in cap space. But when Connors contract kicks in that means we only have about $3 Mil …. Is this correct?

  41. Cassandra says:

    I was at the game last night. Other than overtime it was awful all the way through for both teams. That was as bad a hockey game as I’ve ever seen. Neither team (especially the Oilers) could complete even simple passes.

    One thing that stands out live is the cause of score effects Arizona didn’t try and score in the third period. The puck was never in the Oilers zone, not because the Oilers were good, or they “woke up,” but because Arizona stopped trying to enter the zone.

    It recalls the old saying about football. “The only thing the prevent defense does is prevent you from winning.”

    Score effects are real, dramatic, and intentional.

  42. SHILL83 says:

    Also if the oilers trade for another defenseman and he is a RHD.
    77-6
    2-83/??
    4-??/83

    I would love to see 25 get a chance to play winger with McD. The guy doesn’t have the best offensive instincts, but he can skate very well. He could help cover the defensive side to allow McD to play a bit more offensive too. Then all those rush and dumps that Nurse does he could actually skate the puck in and not instantly rush out of the zone to be back into his position. Would be interesting to see especially if another dman is acquired. TMc did play burns as a forward so he has done it in the past. It’s not nearly as hard to teach offensive mind then it is to teach defensive and nurse did put up a decent amount of points in jr hockey.

  43. flea says:

    Lasts nights game reminded me a lot of some of the hockey they played last year. It was pretty sloppy but they ground out the win. The third period was entertaining. The Coyotes play a brutal style of hockey, but it is effective, especially against a slower team like the Oilers.

    Ideal scenario this week, Edmonton wakes up and beats Toronto on Thursday, a pissed off Arizona squad defeats Calgary on Thursday, and Edmonton rolls into Calgary Saturday night with a chance to get within 1 point with a regulation win.

  44. Pouzar says:

    I wonder if Sergei Zubov is contemplating a comeback?

  45. OriginalPouzar says:

    SHILL83:
    Also if the oilers trade for another defenseman and he is a RHD.
    77-6
    2-83/??
    4-??/83

    I would love to see 25 get a chance to play winger with McD. The guy doesn’t have the best offensive instincts, but he can skate very well. He could help cover the defensive side to allow McD to play a bit more offensive too. Then all those rush and dumps that Nurse does he could actually skate the puck in and not instantly rush out of the zone to be back into his position. Would be interesting to see especially if another dman is acquired. TMc did play burns as a forward so he has done it in the past. It’s not nearly as hard to teach offensive mind then it is to teach defensive and nurse did put up a decent amount of points in jr hockey.

    Wait a second, is the suggestion that Darnell Nurse play wing on the 1st line?

  46. Woogie63 says:

    Dear Todd

    When Rej is back to work can we see this line up for 5 games?

    91-97-98
    27-93-58
    19-29-18
    16-55-44

    25-6
    77-2
    4-83

    33
    1

  47. frjohnk says:

    Georges: Not sure if anyone noticed but Talbot had a fantastic game last night.

    yes he did

  48. frjohnk says:

    speeds: If EDM is looking like they’ll miss, but Talbot recovers, has value and will entertain a trade

    But if Talbot recovers, the minute we trade him we are looking for his replacement. We dont have anybody ready to step up. By trading him for magic beans or a prospect we just end up creating another hole.

  49. Cassandra says:

    frjohnk: But if Talbot recovers, the minute we trade him we are looking for his replacement.We dont have anybody ready to step up.By trading him for magic beans or a prospect we just end up creating another hole.

    The Talbot problem is worse than that. What do you do with his next contract?

    If he rebounds, as you say, the Oilers need him. But if he rebounds, he is also going to command a significant salary, for a player that is not young and whose track record is not without blemishes.

    So this team absolutely needs Talbot to play well, but can’t really afford him if he does.

    I think they need to find the next Talbot and trade this one.

  50. who says:

    SHILL83:
    Also if the oilers trade for another defenseman and he is a RHD.
    77-6
    2-83/??
    4-??/83

    I would love to see 25 get a chance to play winger with McD. The guy doesn’t have the best offensive instincts, but he can skate very well. He could help cover the defensive side to allow McD to play a bit more offensive too. Then all those rush and dumps that Nurse does he could actually skate the puck in and not instantly rush out of the zone to be back into his position. Would be interesting to see especially if another dman is acquired. TMc did play burns as a forward so he has done it in the past. It’s not nearly as hard to teach offensive mind then it is to teach defensive and nurse did put up a decent amount of points in jr hockey.

    Seriously!
    Shouldn’t even respond to this but it’s so bizarre I just have to.
    That would be your big move? Nurse on Macdavids left wing? You would move our first pairing left dman to left wing?

  51. JimmyV1965 says:

    OriginalPouzar: Yes, he has a lower body injury (I believe a groin).

    👍

  52. JimmyV1965 says:

    Georges:
    Cammalleri on the first line. JP in the press box. Sigh.

    Not sure if anyone noticed but Talbot had a fantastic game last night.

    He really did. Second best gsme of the year. We lose that without him.

  53. SHILL83 says:

    OriginalPouzar,

    Id give it a try before Nurse or Klef is traded for McDs scoring winger thats for sure.

  54. Truth says:

    Has there been any further enlightenment into what it is exactly bothering Klefbom? Chiarelli said numerous times yesterday on the various availabilities that Klefbom is a “little banged up” and “they’re working through it.” Just wondering if anyone knows what “it” is?

    Prior to last season I remember having concerns with Klefbom’s ability to recover from the Staph infection that required surgery to remove his skin and flesh on his foot. He required a custom skate to even skate normally ever again. I just hope that isn’t what’s acting up again. If it is, yikes.

  55. OriginalPouzar says:

    Puljijarvi skating with McDavid and Lucic in practice today- exactly what most are asking for…..

  56. OriginalPouzar says:

    Lucic-McDavid-Puljujarvi
    Maroon-RNH-Slepyshev
    Caggiula-Draisaitl-Strome
    Khaira-Letestu-Kassian

    Cammalleri and Pakarinen are the extras

  57. Pouzar says:

    Jason Gregor (@JasonGregor) · Twitter

    https://twitter.com/JasonGregor

    Puljujarvi skating with McDavid and Lucic… Khaira with Letestu and Kassian….RNH and Draisaitl lines same as start of last night. #Oilers

  58. Pouzar says:

    OriginalPouzar:
    Lucic-McDavid-Puljujarvi
    Maroon-RNH-Slepyshev
    Caggiula-Draisaitl-Strome
    Khaira-Letestu-Kassian

    Cammalleri and Pakarinen are the extras

    Lucic still not a good match for McDavid.
    Swap him and Maroon.

  59. Georges says:

    Of all the young forwards, Drake Caggiula is having a rough season. It’s very obvious.

    Whatever criteria that management uses to decide JP is not ready is clearly different from the criteria they’re using to determine Caggiula has established himself as a regular NHL forward.

  60. who says:

    OriginalPouzar:
    Lucic-McDavid-Puljujarvi
    Maroon-RNH-Slepyshev
    Caggiula-Draisaitl-Strome
    Khaira-Letestu-Kassian

    Cammalleri and Pakarinen are the extras

    Don’t mind those lines although I think Cammaleri is getting shafted a bit here. He has looked pretty good to my eye.
    Also not a fan of Lucic with Macdavid but I think the coaches hands are tied.

  61. texmex says:

    New PP units
    McDavid-RNH-Letestu-Khaira-Benning

    Draisaitl-Strome-Maroon—Caggiula-Klefbom… Lucic and Puljujarvi rotating with Maroon-Caggiula.

    ___________________________________________________________

    The Oilers might be the first team in NHL history to have two 4th liners on PP1.

  62. frjohnk says:

    Georges:
    Of all the young forwards, Drake Caggiula is having a rough season. It’s very obvious.

    Whatever criteria that management uses to decide JP is not ready is clearly different from the criteria they’re using to determine Caggiula has established himself as a regular NHL forward.

    Eye test guys like Caggs as has one of the best “compete” levels of the forwards. With his speed and grits he looks like a good player. In reality, he is Todd Marchant without the offense.

  63. vinotintazo says:

    frjohnk: Eye test guys like Caggs as has one of the best “compete” levels of the forwards.With his speed and grits he looks like a good player. In reality, he is Todd Marchant without the offense.

    Agree, or a mini Kassian, looks great, just cannot cash in enough.

  64. oscarmike says:

    It took the Oilers 3 on 3 to beat the worst team in the league.
    There is no 3 on 3 in playoffs.
    Nothing special about this win
    Chia doesn’t have a clue.
    Oilers suck. It’s a fact

  65. OriginalPouzar says:

    Lots of lineups with 91 on the top line.

    WG is express that he doesn’t consider him an NHL player.

    I don’t agree with that – I think he has NHL level skating and a tenacity that could result in a great 4th line energy player that could score the odd goal.

    I don’t think he has first line talent/hands but he does seem to be able to know how to play with McDavid and that itself is turning in to a skill.

  66. who says:

    texmex:
    New PP units
    McDavid-RNH-Letestu-Khaira-Benning

    Draisaitl-Strome-Maroon—Caggiula-Klefbom… Lucic and Puljujarvi rotating with Maroon-Caggiula.

    ___________________________________________________________

    The Oilers might be the first team in NHL history to have two 4th liners on PP1.

    What is the fascination with Letestu on the powerplay.?
    I get that it worked last year but we are 25 games in and it’s not working this year.
    Give it up already.

  67. frjohnk says:

    OriginalPouzar:
    Lots of lineups with 91 on the top line.

    WG is express that he doesn’t consider him an NHL player.

    I don’t agree with that – I think he has NHL level skating and a tenacity that could result in a great 4th line energy player that could score the odd goal.

    I don’t think he has first line talent/hands but he does seem to be able to know how to play with McDavid and that itself is turning in to a skill.

    I find it somewhat funny and very sad at the same time that the Oilers are using 3rd and 4th liners with the best player in the league during his ELC.

  68. Georges says:

    All kinds of interesting things in the play-by-play data.

    Penalties are up. But it’s all due to slashing. Every other minor penalty is business as usual.

    I’ve uploaded the penalty data going back to 05-06 if anyone wants to have a look. Lots of interesting possibilities:

    https://drive.google.com/open?id=1U4XWrNGwOxnEbpu1C4pbCOCD5hO8tHiw

    (It’s about a 30MB file.)

    I think the general downward trend in penalties called is a sign that the population has changed not that the referees or rulebook have changed. Players are better. Most of the drop over the years is in can’t keep up and out of position penalties like hooking and holding. I’m guessing teams have sifted the need to hook and hold to keep up players out of the game. Guys who can’t play don’t play, even if they’re tough.

  69. OriginalPouzar says:

    Truth:
    Has there been any further enlightenment into what it is exactly bothering Klefbom?Chiarelli said numerous times yesterday on the various availabilities that Klefbom is a “little banged up” and “they’re working through it.”Just wondering if anyone knows what “it” is?

    Prior to last season I remember having concerns with Klefbom’s ability to recover from the Staph infection that required surgery to remove his skin and flesh on his foot.He required a custom skate to even skate normally ever again.I just hope that isn’t what’s acting up again.If it is, yikes.

    Nope – they’ve just been using the phrase “banged up” and have been using it since the first week or so of the season.

  70. OriginalPouzar says:

    texmex:
    New PP units
    McDavid-RNH-Letestu-Khaira-Benning

    Draisaitl-Strome-Maroon—Caggiula-Klefbom… Lucic and Puljujarvi rotating with Maroon-Caggiula.

    ___________________________________________________________

    The Oilers might be the first team in NHL history to have two 4th liners on PP1.

    I like Khaira when he’s on his game but I don’t see any reason for him to be on the PP – his skillset is not that of a power play guy.

    I guess he’s the net front presence on that unit but being succefull in front like Smyth or Holmstrom takes more than just a big body – it is indeed a skill to itself.

  71. OriginalPouzar says:

    oscarmike:
    It took the Oilers 3 on 3 to beat the worst team in the league.
    There is no 3 on 3 in playoffs.
    Nothing special about this win
    Chia doesn’t have a clue.
    Oilers suck. It’s a fact

    Worst team in the league had won about half of their games in their last 10. There is extreme parity in this league, not much to choose between last and wild card teams – any team can beat any team – no easy wins.

    What’s special?

    – Oilers didn’t play well or “show up for 60” and still won
    – McDavid didn’t get a point and the Oilers still one (first time since February).

    You can have your OPINION that the Oilers suck (and you might be right). Feel free to have the negative outlook on everything, that is your choice. Of course you could look at the positives from last night’s game as well as the FACT the Oilers have won 3 of their last 4 look forward to the next game.

    I choose option 2.

  72. who says:

    OriginalPouzar: I like Khaira when he’s on his game but I don’t see any reason for him to be on the PP – his skillset is not that of a power play guy.

    I guess he’s the net front presence on that unit but being succefull in front like Smyth or Holmstrom takes more than just a big body – it is indeed a skill to itself.

    Do you think he is any less skilled than Lucic or Maroon?

  73. Kinger_Oil.redux says:

    OriginalPouzar:
    Lucic-McDavid-Puljujarvi
    Maroon-RNH-Slepyshev
    Caggiula-Draisaitl-Strome
    Khaira-Letestu-Kassian

    Cammalleri and Pakarinen are the extras

    – You’ve got to give Pool, Slep, Cags, Strome reps with quality C’s IMO

    – we might quibble about the exact lines, but it seems McL has been “told/realizes” this is what has to be done, with the 3 C’s. 60 more games like this and playoffs, and RNH will be saved!

  74. Pouzar says:

    who: Do you think he is any less skilled than Lucic or Maroon?

    There is big gap in skill between Maroon and Lucic and I have more time for Lucic here than most.

  75. speeds says:

    frjohnk: But if Talbot recovers, the minute we trade him we are looking for his replacement.We dont have anybody ready to step up.By trading him for magic beans or a prospect we just end up creating another hole.

    It would be one thing if Talbot were 27, but its questionable whether EDM should plan around him, particularly at the expected $/term. If they aren’t signing Talbot anyways, its one year earlier that the transition occurs. If you think there would be no way to address the position then I guess you hold onto him, but all Im saying is if you can get a good return, and think you can get another goalie, makes sense to at least look at it.

  76. jtblack says:

    who,

    Maybe TMac didnt see JP HAMMER home the One Timer in Det. I wouldthrow him in Letestu’s spot and instruct him to Hammer it and hit the net.

    But TMac is so stubborn he will run letestu all yr even if they still struggle. then say leon has to be better

  77. Cassandra says:

    OriginalPouzar: Worst team in the league had won about half of their games in their last 10.There is extreme parity in this league, not much to choose between last and wild card teams – any team can beat any team – no easy wins.

    What’s special?

    – Oilers didn’t play well or “show up for 60” and still won
    – McDavid didn’t get a point and the Oilers still one (first time since February).

    You can have your OPINION that the Oilers suck (and you might be right). Feel free to have the negative outlook on everything, that is your choice.Of course you could look at the positives from last night’s game as well as the FACT the Oilers have won 3 of their last 4 look forward to the next game.

    I choose option 2.

    This is new age nonsense. None of this has anything to do with optimism or pessimism, or the relativism of opinion.

    The point is to describe things as they are.

    If someone describes the game as awful, that is neither pessimism or optimism, it is an attempt to give words to the real. If you disagree, it is your responsibility to respond with reasons.

    There is only one world, and it doesn’t care how we “choose” to see it. Thinking is the activity of reconciling oneself with the real. Of understanding what is.

  78. Pouzar says:

    frjohnk: I find it somewhat funny and very sad at the same time that the Oilers are using 3rd and 4th liners with the best player in the league during his ELC.

    Conor Sheary was not Conor Sheary before Sid the Kid learned him.
    I have no idea what Caggs is going to turn into but his college career is very similar to Sheary if not better. Me? I think our prospect dev sucks and some time in the “A” would have been what the doctor ordered for Caggs but chances are we wouldn’t have snagged him without the promise of NHL minutes right off the hop.

  79. Woodguy v2.0 says:

    @Rob_Tychkowski

    Talbot, upper body, questionable for the Leafs

    Uh-oh.

    Give Ellis the start vs TOR.

  80. JimmyV1965 says:

    Georges:
    Of all the young forwards, Drake Caggiula is having a rough season. It’s very obvious.

    Whatever criteria that management uses to decide JP is not ready is clearly different from the criteria they’re using to determine Caggiula has established himself as a regular NHL forward.

    I would hope the very first consideration for JP placement is what is best for his development. If Drake is struggling I don’t think you should necessarily replace him with JP. I strongly believe the minors is best for his development right now. I strongly hope I’m wrong. Playing him on the first line against the toughest competition is a huge gamble.

  81. who says:

    Pouzar: There is big gap in skill between Maroon and Lucic and I have more time for Lucic here than most.

    If we are talking about puck skills I would agree with you. I would say Maroon is the best choice for net front presence on the powerplay.
    But I think Kharia might be as good as Lucic. Not as expierienced , but better at puck retrieval and retention.
    Lucic played an effective, physical game last night. He still lacks the puck skills to compliment high end offensive players.
    He’s no Michael Ferland. Theres something I bet you never thought you’d hear.

  82. Pouzar says:

    Woodguy v2.0: Give Ellis the start vs TOR.

    pfffft

  83. jtblack says:

    Woodguy v2.0,

    Back up gaolies in PC’s 2 yrs.

    MONSTER – HUGE FAIL
    LB – Average at best

    I think Ellis is the right play also. and maybe for the future?

    That was one of the reasons i thought Edm would be ok this yr. i thought they would win some games with a Back Up.

  84. fishman says:

    Talbot banged up??? Oh boy another thing to derail the team after winning 3 of 4!

  85. Woodguy v2.0 says:

    NYC-Back-to-Tokyo Oil (Gentleman Backpacker):
    I think Talbot is in the Craig Anderson tier of goalies.
    Also he should have less wear and tear than many others due to his late blossoming as a starter. However the Oilers are running him into the ground because TMc does not trust Brossoit and Chia won’t get him a better backup.

    On the whole I would probably go 3yrs x 5m on an extesion. No more.

    I put a lot of stock in Goals Saved Above Average per 100 shots (all situations – you can also break it out, but 4v5 is important)

    There have been 66 goalies play 3000+ minutes (all situations) over the last 5 seasons (including this one)

    Talbot ranks 5th with 0.893 GSAA/100

    Anderson ranks 42nd with -0.196 GSAA/100

    Here’s the whole list:

    MATTHEW.MURRAY 1.028
    CAREY.PRICE 1.009
    JOHN.GIBSON 0.972
    HENRIK.LUNDQVIST 0.911
    CAM.TALBOT 0.893
    COREY.CRAWFORD 0.887
    JAROSLAV.HALAK 0.872
    CORY.SCHNEIDER 0.814
    SERGEI.BOBROVSKY 0.785
    SCOTT.DARLING 0.677
    FREDERIK.ANDERSEN 0.641
    MARTIN.JONES 0.585
    JONATHAN.QUICK 0.571
    ANDREW.HAMMOND 0.564
    BRADEN.HOLTBY 0.485
    PHILIPP.GRUBAUER 0.458
    ANTTI.RAANTA 0.429
    THOMAS.GREISS 0.402
    BRIAN.ELLIOTT 0.334
    RYAN.MILLER 0.278
    MARC-ANDRE.FLEURY 0.273
    ANTON.KHUDOBIN 0.269
    SEMYON.VARLAMOV 0.265
    ROBERTO.LUONGO 0.254
    ANDERS.NILSSON 0.179
    CONNOR.HELLEBUYCK 0.168
    ONDREJ.PAVELEC 0.139
    BEN.BISHOP 0.101
    PETR.MRAZEK 0.098
    MICHAL.NEUVIRTH 0.052
    STEVE.MASON 0.044
    JIMMY.HOWARD -0.032
    ANDREI.VASILEVSKIY -0.066
    JAKE.ALLEN -0.070
    AL.MONTOYA -0.076
    MIKE.SMITH -0.101
    KARI.LEHTONEN -0.102
    CHAD.JOHNSON -0.108
    EDDIE.LACK -0.123
    JAMES.REIMER -0.147
    TUUKKA.RASK -0.150
    CRAIG.ANDERSON -0.196
    ROBIN.LEHNER -0.208
    MICHAEL.HUTCHINSON -0.210
    JONATHAN.BERNIER -0.235
    ALEX.STALOCK -0.235
    CALVIN.PICKARD -0.319
    KARRI.RAMO -0.341
    KEITH.KINKAID -0.347
    DEVAN.DUBNYK -0.384
    JONAS.HILLER -0.399
    CURTIS.MCELHINNEY -0.430
    JACOB.MARKSTROM -0.432
    MIKE.CONDON -0.476
    PEKKA.RINNE -0.482
    PETER.BUDAJ -0.607
    CARTER.HUTTON -0.648
    CAM.WARD -0.721
    ANTTI.NIEMI -0.725
    JHONAS.ENROTH -0.781
    BEN.SCRIVENS -0.921
    DARCY.KUEMPER -1.067
    LOUIS.DOMINGUE -1.079
    JONAS.GUSTAVSSON -1.186
    RETO.BERRA -1.202
    ANDERS.LINDBACK -1.921

  86. Pouzar says:

    who: If we are talking about puck skills I would agree with you.

    Yup…that’s what I mean. It’s Maroon, Khaira and Looch a distant 3rd imo.

  87. OriginalPouzar says:

    Talbot tweaked something in his upper body last night but has NOT been ruled out for Thursday (as per Stauffer).

  88. OriginalPouzar says:

    who: Do you think he is any less skilled than Lucic or Maroon?

    Khaira? Yes, yes I do.

  89. bendelson says:

    My melancholy music is the Nick Drake collection. Though many see the river man/black eyed dog as way too blue, time has told me the poor boy’s music has a way of brightening my northern sky when the day is done.

  90. JimmyV1965 says:

    Pouzar: There is big gap in skill between Maroon and Lucic and I have more time for Lucic here than most.

    Agreed. He has a better shot and has way better puck control in tight along the boards. Generally doesn’t treat the puck like a grenade, like Lucic does.

  91. Pouzar says:

    jtblack: I think Ellis is the right play also.

    He is posting a .914 in the AHL. Hardly setting the world on fire.

    LB has been there done that over a larger sample size and coming off a .933 game last game.

  92. who says:

    Pouzar: Yup…that’s what I mean. It’s Maroon, Khaira and Looch a distant 3rd imo.

    That’s the way I see them too.
    It’s funny but at this point I see the speed of the game being a bigger issue for Lucics hands than his legs. He’s not fast, but he can sort of keep up, but If he has to hurry a play he either fumbles the puck or throws it away blindly.

  93. Pouzar says:

    Edmonton Oilers (@EdmontonOilers) · Twitter

    https://twitter.com/EdmontonOilers

    Coach McLellan says @ctalbot33 “tweaked something in his upper body” last night but hasn’t been ruled out for tomorrow’s game vs. Toronto.

  94. ashley says:

    I think the criticism of putting Lucic on McDavid’s line is fair, but I think it needs to be extended to Maroon. The same sentence regarding the number of glorious chances missed while on McDavid’s line could be uttered with Maroon. Maroon has slightly more speed (still slow), and similar hands.

    McDavid needs to play with wingers who have speed and skill. Lucic and Maroon are not the answer. I would put Slepy there for 10 games and see what happens. Slepy, McDavid, RNH would be magic, but we would lose a lot of two way from the second line.

  95. russ99 says:

    To be fair, McDavid needs to adapt his game a bit.

    He’s not getting away from opposition defensemen pinching at the line anymore, the opposition has adjusted. So a speed only approach with linemates will play right into opposition plans.

    He’s losing the puck under pressure more as well, and trying to force in too many passes.

    Plan A isn’t working much these days (except overtime), he needs to come up with an equally devastating Plan B, then he’ll be unstoppable.

  96. Kinger_Oil.redux says:

    Woodguy v2.0: I put a lot of stock in Goals Saved Above Average per 100 shots (all situations – you can also break it out, but 4v5 is important)

    There have been 66 goalies play 3000+ minutes (all situations) over the last 5 seasons (including this one)

    Talbot ranks 5th with 0.893 GSAA/100

    – Are you saying therefore that he is a top-5 goalie in the NHL right now?

    – How does Talbot rank over the last 3 years: when he was the starting G: his 2 years on a strong NYR team as a back-up isn’t meaningful IMO. 5 years is cherry picking IMO. He’s not top-5 last 3

    – He has been a starting goalie for the last three years. His first two years in NY were 2 of his 3 best using your preferred metric I would bet a lot

    – I also would bet a lot that this year, his GSAA is very very bad

    – Over the last three years, I bet he isn’t top-5, probably not top-10…

    – Certainly goalies are vodoo. Last year he was pretty good, this year he is pretty bad…I’d need to see a lot more for me to be in the camp that he is a top-5 goalie today in the NHL

    * re-reading I might be a little agressive in tone. I would not actually bet a lot, its a figure of speech. I just take issue if by providing data that points to him being top-5 you are indeed concluding he is a top-5 goalie.

  97. Pink Socks says:

    Kinger_Oil.redux: – Are you saying therefore that he is a top-5 goalie in the NHL right now?

    – How does Talbot rank over the last 3 years: when he was the starting G: his 2 years on a strong NYR team as a back-up isn’t meaningful IMO.5 years is cherry picking IMO.He’s not top-5 last 3

    I agree with this 100% and look forward to those numbers if WG has them handy.

  98. fifthcartel says:

    It’s really amazing to contrast what our eyes see and feel vs. stats.

    I agree with others in that 97 doesn’t ”look’ the same. There’s less “holy fuck” plays where he completely owns the soul of a d-man and burns past him. Things don’t ‘feel’ right.

    Then I look and he’s on pace for 99 points and I’m like, “what”.

    It’s crazy he doesn’t look as out of this world, and he’s still on pace for ~100 points.

  99. JimmyV1965 says:

    fifthcartel:
    It’s really amazing to contrast what our eyes see and feel vs. stats.

    I agree with others in that 97 doesn’t ”look’ the same. There’Thanks s less “holy fuck” plays where he completely owns the soul of a d-man and burns past him. Things don’t ‘feel’ right.

    Then I look and he’s on pace for 99 points and I’m like, “what”.

    It’s crazy he doesn’t look as out of this world, and he’s still on pace for ~100 points.

    McDavid is a godsend. Everyone though has a stretch of iffy games. For me his passing has been off at times this year.

  100. Cassandra says:

    fifthcartel:
    It’s really amazing to contrast what our eyes see and feel vs. stats.

    I agree with others in that 97 doesn’t ”look’ the same. There’s less “holy fuck” plays where he completely owns the soul of a d-man and burns past him. Things don’t ‘feel’ right.

    Then I look and he’s on pace for 99 points and I’m like, “what”.

    It’s crazy he doesn’t look as out of this world, and he’s still on pace for ~100 points.

    Remember scoring is up. Last year he ran away with the scoring title. This year he is tied for 6th with Voracek and Schenn.

    99 points isn’t what it used to be. Stamkos is on pace for 123 points, which would be the best of his career by 26 points.

    At these scoring levels, 99 points for McDavid is definitely a disappointment. Hockey reference has an adjusted points rating which takes actual points and adjusts to level of offense and 82 games. last year’s season was an 110 point season. So far this season, McDavid has been playing at an historically adjusted 100 point level, so McDavid has been 9% worse this season compared to last.

    That seems about right. It turns out our eyes are not lying to us after all.

  101. PaperDesigner says:

    Cassandra: Remember scoring is up.Last year he ran away with the scoring title.This year he is tied for 6th with Voracek and Schenn.

    99 points isn’t what it used to be.Stamkos is on pace for 123 points, which would be the best of his career by 26 points.

    At these scoring levels, 99 points for McDavid is definitely a disappointment.Hockey reference has an adjusted points rating which takes actual points and adjusts to level of offense and 82 games.last year’s season was an 110 point season.So far this season, McDavid has been playing at an historically adjusted 100 point level, so McDavid has been 9% worse this season compared to last.

    That seems about right.It turns out our eyes are not lying to us after all.

    Let’s not miss the most important point: we have a player who, when he ‘looks off’ and is ‘not up to last year’s standards’ is still a 100 point player. That’s incredible. I would love him to rip the league apart at a 140 point pace, but it should also be the least of our worries.

  102. Georges says:

    OriginalPouzar:
    Lots of lineups with 91 on the top line.

    WG is express that he doesn’t consider him an NHL player.

    I don’t agree with that – I think he has NHL level skating and a tenacity that could result in a great 4th line energy player that could score the odd goal.

    I don’t think he has first line talent/hands but he does seem to be able to know how to play with McDavid and that itself is turning in to a skill.

    Drake’s “knowing how to play with McDavid” this season has translated to a CF% of 38 and getting outscored 4-8 at 5v5. That’s just in 54 minutes. So the 4.43 GF60 is up against an 8.85 GA60 with the two of them on the ice.

    Next to Letestu, Caggiula’s had the toughest season so far for our forwards.

    Caggiula has jumped right into the core forward category. He hasn’t had to go through the same application process as JJ, JP, and Sleps.

  103. fifthcartel says:

    Cassandra,

    Hmmm, that’s an interesting point.

    I’m not convinced that it’ll remain as high, but if it’s still this high around the ~40 game mark it’ll be hard to ignore.

  104. Thinker says:

    russ99:
    To be fair, McDavid needs to adapt his game a bit.

    He’s not getting away from opposition defensemen pinching at the line anymore, the opposition has adjusted. So a speed only approach with linemates will play right into opposition plans.

    He’s losing the puck under pressure more as well, and trying to force in too many passes.

    Plan A isn’t working much these days (except overtime), he needs to come up with an equally devastating Plan B, then he’ll be unstoppable.

    What if, hear me out, he had linemates who were legitimate threats who could punish defensive players overplaying him.

  105. Georges says:

    Cassandra: Remember scoring is up.Last year he ran away with the scoring title.This year he is tied for 6th with Voracek and Schenn.

    99 points isn’t what it used to be.Stamkos is on pace for 123 points, which would be the best of his career by 26 points.

    At these scoring levels, 99 points for McDavid is definitely a disappointment.Hockey reference has an adjusted points rating which takes actual points and adjusts to level of offense and 82 games.last year’s season was an 110 point season.So far this season, McDavid has been playing at an historically adjusted 100 point level, so McDavid has been 9% worse this season compared to last.

    That seems about right.It turns out our eyes are not lying to us after all.

    Or… weaker PP, less time on PP. Losing lies to our eyes maybe…?

  106. Pink Socks says:

    russ99:
    To be fair, McDavid needs to adapt his game a bit.

    He’s not getting away from opposition defensemen, the opposition has adjusted. So a speed only approach with linemates will play right into opposition plans.

    He’s losing the puck under pressure more as well, and trying to force in too many passes.

    Plan A isn’t working much these days (except overtime), he needs to come up with an equally devastating Plan B, then he’ll be unstoppable.

    Further to that, the speed only approach is especially not working when he is playing with 27 and 13, two of the slower forwards in the game. He definitely needs more speed on his wings. JP practicing there helps substantially.

    I would venture a guess that a majority of McDiety’s rushes (by eye I have no proof), occur down the right wing boards. Having two right handed shots on the rush could help with quick shots. I would like to see these run, give McD two RH wingers, give Kassian the bump on a line that has worked in the past, and 3rd line with Leon.

    58-97-98
    27-93-44
    19-29-18
    16-55-91

  107. Pink Socks says:

    So does Pierre Dorian get fired in the off season when they miss the playoffs while he purged their roster of Kyle Turris, two(!) first round picks, and a third round pick for a guy with 1 goal and -10(!) in the 8 games since the big acquisition? I haven’t watched a single Ottawa game but those numbers are awful.

  108. anjinsan says:

    Ah, Mr. LT,
    Thou knowest how to deeply appreciate music as a hope for better times.
    For me it was reading philosophy. But, I digress.

    It’s funny to me how Chiarelli went with the characterization of 1000 little cuts when the problems are actually a few immense errors and the general error of building to a bygone model instead of today’s and tomorrow’s game.

    Going forward, unfortunately, because of the structure and longevity of the big contracts and the truly large loss of high-end talent, it’s hard to see a way forward. Wouldn’t it be cool if we had a foundering LD that another team so coveted that the other team’s GM would hand us 2 1st-round grade players for said LD in next year’s draft?

  109. Woodguy v2.0 says:

    jtblack:
    Woodguy v2.0,

    Back up gaolies in PC’s 2 yrs.

    MONSTER – HUGE FAIL
    LB –Average at best

    I think Ellis is the right play also. and maybe for the future?

    That was one of the reasons i thought Edm would be ok this yr. i thought they would win some games with a Back Up.

    I like the quality of young goalies Chiarelli has added.

    Best I’ve seen in the org since Fuhr-Moog

  110. Pink Socks says:

    anjinsan:
    Ah, Mr. LT,
    Thou knowest how to deeply appreciate music as a hope for better times.
    For me it was reading philosophy.But, I digress.

    It’s funny to me how Chiarelli went with the characterization of 1000 little cuts when the problems are actually a few immense errors and the general error of building to a bygone model instead of today’s and tomorrow’s game.

    Going forward, unfortunately, because of the structure and longevity of the big contracts and the truly large loss of high-end talent, it’s hard to see a way forward.Wouldn’t it be cool if we had a foundering LD that another team so coveted that the other team’s GM would hand us 2 1st-round grade players for said LD in next year’s draft?

    Peter Chiarelli‏
    @FakeOilersGM
    Nov 28
    More
    “Death by a Thousand Cuts” will also be the first single from my debut album next month

  111. Georges says:

    Pink Socks:
    So does Pierre Dorian get fired in the off season when they miss the playoffs while he purged their roster of Kyle Turris, two(!) first round picks, and a third round pick for a guy with 1 goal and -10(!) in the 8 games since the big acquisition?I haven’t watched a single Ottawa game but those numbers are awful.

    I’ve seen people compare Duchene to Hall. I guess because their scoring is similar. Not even close when it comes to relative on-ice impact over their careers.

  112. Woodguy v2.0 says:

    Pouzar: pfffft

    Hehe.

    That was for you.

  113. NYC-Back-to-Tokyo Oil (Gentleman Backpacker) says:

    Woodguy v2.0
    Sorry I should have been more clear. Not recent Anderson. I equate mining out Talbot to mining out Anderson a few years back. When he was much better. .

  114. Kinger_Oil.redux says:

    Pink Socks: I agree with this 100% and look forward to those numbers if WG has them handy.

    – Re Talbot: WG says: “There have been 66 goalies play 3000+ minutes (all situations) over the last 5 seasons (including this one) Talbot ranks 5th with 0.893 GSAA/100”

    My spidey senses went off, so I pulled this up, as WG says he puts a lot of stock in a stat that shows Talbot top-5:

    – 2015: Talbot’s 1st year as starting goalie: his GSAA was 3.31 (27th)
    – 2016: Talbot’s 2nd year as starting goalie: his GSAA was 12.21 (9th)
    – 2017: Talbot’s current year as starting goalie: GSAA is -5.33 (54th in league)

    – Talbot, based on this method for examining goalies, I am very confident in concluding he’s not a top-5 goalie. He is very very medicore goalie using this method, if you value his performance on the team that he has been employed on as a starter

    – Adding back-up years allows you to conclude otherwise.

    – As a starting goalie, – Talbot is not a top-5 goalie using this stat.

    – The selective use of this stat notwithstanding, I believe Talbot is a mediocre goalie, or a OK goalie, or just fine, depending on your adjective: and we need him to be better (or get a better goalie), despite other things that ail this team. He’s not brutal, but he’s for sure replaceable.

    – More games like last night Talbot please: you got lucky with the posts but thats one of the few games in recent memory where you helped the team a lot to win one.

  115. Mike says:

    What about a move with Colorado:
    Nurse
    Drai
    Russel

    For
    MacKinnon
    Barrie

    I think this trade solves a lot of problems provided Russel agreed. Saves 2.2 mil on drai-mack contract. I can see Barrie playing excellently with a healthy Sekera, who I believe can make up for his defensive lapses while adding his puck moving ability to the second pairing. Reunite Klef and Larsson and let them continue development. Pushes Benning down to third pairing. I would trade a late pick if possible to Montreal for Brandon Davidson to play 3LD with Benning.

    I think adding MacKinnon, his positives are obvious and has chem with MCD on the U24 team, can play all forward positions is right handed and very fast. Getting out from the Russel contract would be huge for cap flexibility. Having a right side of Larsson, Barrie and Benning allows Bear and Mantha proper time to develop in the AHL.

    I realize drai is a huge talent and nurse is coming on very strong now and probably is at or near peak trade value as well as drai. I think this balances the team both playing versatility and cap flexibility.

  116. Woodguy v2.0 says:

    Kinger_Oil.redux,

    – Are you saying therefore that he is a top-5 goalie in the NHL right now?

    Top 10, top 15 for sure.


    – How does Talbot rank over the last 3 years: when he was the starting G: his 2 years on a strong NYR team as a back-up isn’t meaningful IMO. 5 years is cherry picking IMO. He’s not top-5 last 3

    Its not cherry picking. Don’t accuse people of things when you have no proof.

    If you disagree with the sample a better way to state would have been “his results over the last 3 years are more relevant” or something like that. Don’t be a dink.

    Games played in the NHL are games played in the NHL.

    The other team doesn’t send out a B team when you start the back up.

    Thinking that back up games don’t matter is what leads GMs to hire bad goalies like Niemi and Bishop over and over when guys like Darling, Raanta and Talbot are available.

    Last 3 years (including this one) same metric minimum 2000min he’s 16th.

    Top 30:
    SERGEI.BOBROVSKY 1.45
    COREY.CRAWFORD 1.19
    JONATHAN.QUICK 1.12
    JOHN.GIBSON 1.09
    MATTHEW.MURRAY 1.03
    ANTTI.RAANTA 0.92
    BRADEN.HOLTBY 0.80
    FREDERIK.ANDERSEN 0.77
    JAROSLAV.HALAK 0.75
    THOMAS.GREISS 0.71
    CORY.SCHNEIDER 0.69
    HENRIK.LUNDQVIST 0.67
    BRIAN.ELLIOTT 0.66
    PHILIPP.GRUBAUER 0.62
    CAREY.PRICE 0.61
    CAM.TALBOT 0.59
    RYAN.MILLER 0.58
    MARTIN.JONES 0.55
    ROBERTO.LUONGO 0.52
    JIMMY.HOWARD 0.50

    He’s having a shitty start and will probably be higher by the end of the year.

    If we look at his 2 full seasons in Edmonton he’s (so not including this year) he’s 12th. That’s about right I think. Shitty first year, Vezina consideration last year.


    – He has been a starting goalie for the last three years. His first two years in NY were 2 of his 3 best using your preferred metric I would bet a lot

    They were but last year was really close:
    Team GSAA/100
    NYR 2.24
    NYR 1.46
    EDM 0.11
    EDM 1.32
    EDM -0.64


    – I also would bet a lot that this year, his GSAA is very very bad

    Yes.


    – Over the last three years, I bet he isn’t top-5, probably not top-10…

    Yes. Top 15 is a fine goalie though unless you have another on the roster.

    – Certainly goalies are vodoo. Last year he was pretty good, this year he is pretty bad…I’d need to see a lot more for me to be in the camp that he is a top-5 goalie today in the NHL

    I’m comfortable at 10-12 ish


    * re-reading I might be a little agressive in tone. I would not actually bet a lot, its a figure of speech. I just take issue if by providing data that points to him being top-5 you are indeed concluding he is a top-5 goalie.

    Haha!

    I didn’t conclude he was a top 5 goalie.

    I showed that he and Anderson were in different time zones via that metric.

    I don’t Matt Murray is as good as he shows via GSAA, he started hot and is slipping.

    Other goalies like that are Jones, Hammond, Elliott.

    Goalies who put up good GSAA/100 over larger samples are to be trusted more.

    Some goalies can run really hot one year so the small sample amplifies their standing

    Just because I put results of a metric out doesn’t mean I think every result of the metric is the burning bush.

    Assuming that I do is common here and on twitter etc, but no one thinks to ask “do you think think this means “X””, so I’m glad you asked, but sad that you assumed I did.

  117. Kinger_Oil.redux says:

    Woodguy v2.0,

    – Good stuff !: see above. the 16th fits how I view him: mediocre. Would that be now that you’ve dug up some numbers and seen mine?

    – Has never been a great goalie as a starter (27th, 9th, 54th)

    – I mean this team has other things to worry about than Cam: but he’s not all that…

    – He was 9th last year on your stat: that’s not Vezina…

    * I see you conclude 10-15: we aren’t far off then…Tougher to win that way: think Detroit with their teams and medicore goelering

  118. who says:

    Mike:
    What about a move with Colorado:
    Nurse
    Drai
    Russel

    For
    MacKinnon
    Barrie

    I think this trade solves a lot of problems provided Russel agreed. Saves 2.2 mil on drai-mack contract. Ican see Barrie playing excellently with a healthy Sekera, who I believe can make up for his defensive lapses while adding his puck moving ability to the second pairing. Reunite Klef and Larsson and let them continue development. Pushes Benning down to third pairing. I would trade a late pick if possible to Montreal for Brandon Davidson to play 3LD with Benning.

    I think adding MacKinnon, his positives are obvious and has chem with MCD on the U24 team, can play all forward positions is right handed and very fast. Getting out from the Russel contract would be huge for cap flexibility. Having a right side of Larsson, Barrie and Benning allows Bear and Mantha proper time to develop in the AHL.

    I realize drai is a huge talent and nurse is coming on very strong now and probably is at or near peak trade value as well as drai. I think this balances the team both playing versatility and cap flexibility.

    Substitute Klefbom for Nurse and maybe we can talk. Still don’t think I’d do it.

  119. Mike says:

    who,

    I can see the desire to want to keep nurse but I believe he doesn’t have the offensive ceiling klefbom does. Nurse is a more mobile version of A.Larsson. I really like them both but believe that keeping klefbom means all three lines have a decent and excellent passer for the break out. I think nurses ability to skate the puck out is huge but klef can do that as well while also being able to dish and pinch with more offensive clarity in my mind. Opinion of mine of course. I also know that klef Lars pair is great long term and I believe Sekera will cover his contract and would accel with Barrie IMHO.

  120. Thinker says:

    In theory, I’d like to see more starts for Brossoit this year, so we can make a decision on him. I would extend Talbot but only short term, unless he takes a pay cut. 1×5 or 3×3. I will never bet on an over 30 goalies stability long term. If Brossoit isn’t the guy, they need to start betting on some Greiss types (not him, as he’s old too), and hope one catches fire. One thing Chiarelli was really good at in Boston was having a great goalie.

    Not sure I buy the wear and tear argument, since I don’t think a goalie is significantly more strained in the NHL vs AHL. It’s a different type of athlete, which relies on explosiveness and mobility, and I think it is much more age related than injury related.

  121. who says:

    Mike:
    who,

    I can see the desire to want to keep nurse but I believe he doesn’t have the offensive ceiling klefbom does. Nurse is a more mobile version of A.Larsson. I really like them both but believe that keeping klefbom means all three lines have a decent and excellent passer for the break out. I think nurses ability to skate the puck out is huge but klef can do that as well while also being able to dish and pinch with more offensive clarity in my mind. Opinion of mine of course. I also know that klef Lars pair is great long term and I believe Sekera will cover his contract and would accel with Barrie IMHO.

    If you acquire Barrie and keep Sekera you have a puck mover for your top two pairs. Based on their play this year, and assuming Nurse would sign for 6 plus for 5 mil or less, I would prefer Nurse. Think he has a unique skillset and mindset that is truly rare.
    Still don’t think I’d do it but that is simply a reflection of how highly I value Drai.

  122. Scungilli Slushy says:

    Lucic may have less skill but Maroon has never produced as many points and that is including playing with the best offensive player in the game for a whole season while Luc was on a struggling line. So there’s that.

    Talbot isn’t an elite goalie but we know that because elite players arrive early almost always. But he is good, good enough to win with allowing the caveat that he is streaky and needs a trusted backup so the team doesn’t live and die with his play.

    JP doesn’t get PP because it’s a carrot. Coaches nowadays don’t have as much leverage on players. They are minted millionaires soon after arriving in the league. There are comparatively a lot of jobs. It’s TOI, PP, pressbox for motivating tools.

    We used to complain about green players being gifted things. As soon as JP is meeting assignments well enough he’ll be there. I think they want him to get the details down. It’s a fine line.

    Same reason Cags gets a push. He goes like a buzz saw and they like what he brings. McL has mentioned Slepy needs to be more engaged and if he does that he will get rewarded.

  123. Woodguy v2.0 says:

    Kinger_Oil.redux:
    Woodguy v2.0,

    – Good stuff !: see above.the 16th fits how I view him: mediocre. Would that be now that you’ve dug up some numbers and seen mine?

    – Has never been a great goalie as a starter (27th, 9th, 54th)

    – I mean this team has other things to worry about than Cam: but he’s not all that…

    – He was 9th last year on your stat: that’s not Vezina…

    * I see you conclude 10-15: we aren’t far off then…Tougher to win that way: think Detroit with their teams and medicore goelering

    What TOI parameters where you using where he showed up 9th?

    Iirc he was 5th.

    Will check when I get to a desk top.

  124. Thinker says:

    I think if we trade klef, we’ll be kicking ourselves for years.

  125. Scungilli Slushy says:

    who: If you acquire Barrie and keep Sekera you have a puck mover for your top two pairs. Based on their play this year, and assuming Nurse would sign for 6 plus for 5 mil or less, I would prefer Nurse. Think he has a unique skillset and mindset that is truly rare.
    Still don’t think I’d do it but that is simply a reflection of how highly I value Drai.

    Sekera is great but he’s 31 with a major knee injury. He won’t help at the heart of this team’s core. Nurse is a rare player in that he only lacks high offense and he brings nasty with ridiculous mobility, that is truly valuable or they employ guys like Gryba. Remember that skill comp where he skates as fast backwards as the forwards did normally?

    Klefbom Nurse Larsson as the core, find a rightie. I think that’s possibly what Chia is calling around about. Benning needs third pair for a while yet. Scary to think what he’d trade for that.

  126. Woodguy v2.0 says:

    NYC-Back-to-Tokyo Oil (Gentleman Backpacker):
    Woodguy v2.0
    Sorry I should have been more clear. Not recent Anderson. I equate mining out Talbot to mining out Anderson a few years back. When he was much better. .

    I think that’s fair.

    I’ll dig into Anderson’s history.

  127. OriginalPouzar says:

    It’ll be interesting to see what might happen with Talbot and a potential roster move.

    He hasn’t been ruled out for tomorrow but if he can’t go and can’t back-up, we will need to call up a goalie and will need to send someone down.

    It will likely be Puljijarvi or Slep as they don’t need to clear waivers.

    I would hope that Pak is the one to be re-assigned (as the plan is to have the other two in the lineup) but he does require waivers and I’m not sure if we need to wait 24 hours before we can get him off the roster?

    Coach was express that he can’t finalize lines until he knows about Talbot – implying one of the two guys scheduled to play (Slep and JP) might have to be re-assigned temporarily.

  128. Scungilli Slushy says:

    Wayne Gretzky didn’t win the scoring race every year he played. If McD is a problem I suggest folding the team because there is no point in playing anymore, there is no hope of succeeding.

    A couple of holes really hoops most teams especially young ones.

  129. Woodguy v2.0 says:

    Kinger_Oil.redux: – Re Talbot: WG says: “There have been 66 goalies play 3000+ minutes (all situations) over the last 5 seasons (including this one) Talbot ranks 5th with 0.893 GSAA/100”

    My spidey senses went off, so I pulled this up, as WG says he puts a lot of stock in a stat that shows Talbot top-5:

    – 2015: Talbot’s 1st year as starting goalie: his GSAA was 3.31 (27th)
    – 2016: Talbot’s 2nd year as starting goalie: his GSAA was 12.21 (9th)
    – 2017: Talbot’s current year as starting goalie: GSAA is -5.33 (54th in league)

    – Talbot, based on this method for examining goalies, I am very confident in concluding he’s not a top-5 goalie. He is very very medicore goalie using this method, if you value his performance on the team that he has been employed on as a starter

    – Adding back-up years allows you to conclude otherwise.

    – As a starting goalie, – Talbot is not a top-5 goalie using this stat.

    – The selective use of this stat notwithstanding, I believe Talbot is a mediocre goalie, or a OK goalie, or just fine, depending on your adjective:and we need him to be better (or get a better goalie), despite other things that ail this team. He’s not brutal, but he’s for sure replaceable.

    – More games like last night Talbot please: you got lucky with the posts but thats one of the few games in recent memory where you helped the team a lot to win one.

    Don’t use raw GSAA as it gives no context.

    I use GSAA per 100 shots.

    Make sure you also use “all situations”

    I think you just looked at 5v5 and that discounts the PK where some of the best goalies make the most difference.

  130. Scungilli Slushy says:

    As for Talbot I would try to find a better goalie or stop gap rather than sign. Too much risk at the most important position because age. The Oilers need always a good or better goalie to support McD.

    That being said our ideas and what a good GM can achieve in reality are not a natural fit. The better the team gets the less others want to do anything to make them better.

  131. Woodguy v2.0 says:

    Georges: I’ve seen people compare Duchene to Hall. I guess because their scoring is similar. Not even close when it comes to relative on-ice impact over their careers.

    Can you extrapolate on this?

  132. Scungilli Slushy says:

    Pouzar: He is posting a .914 in the AHL. Hardly setting the world on fire.

    LB has been there done that over a larger sample size and coming off a .933 game last game.

    It would be really unfair to not use him without clear evidence Ellis was so ridiculous it had to happen. I think it would crush any confidence gain he’s made.

  133. Kinger_Oil.redux says:

    Woodguy v2.0,

    – Perhaps the PK helps: but that can be a system thingy, or smaller sample. I was using all sits

    – I really think there are lots of fancy stats to suggest Talbot is not bad, not great:

    – Last year, 58% of his starts were “quality” as per Vollman. League “average” for all goalies is 53%. That’s not a hang your hat on stat, as Talbot had the same % quality start as Lundquist (who does appear to be slowing down), but 16 G with more than 20 starts had better percentages

    – 2 years ago, his quality start % was 49%: which according to Vollman is “bad”, as its below 50%. There were 45 goalies who played more than 10 games who had better %

    – His overall sv% is just ok: never elite.

    – Anyway, I’m warming up to the idea that an upgrade in goalie isn’t crazy talk, or at least a goalie that has a chance as back-up to just win the starting position based on performance.

    – Talbot played hard and a lot of games last year, and helped this team, he earned his keep then some: he was exactly what we needed. It’s likely though that we are at peak Talbot. He could play this level for awhile no doubt, but we know his ceiling…

  134. Georges says:

    Woodguy v2.0,

    Hall’s career 5v5 shot and goal rel numbers are much more impressive than Duchene’s. Hall has been a difference maker for his teams. Duchene has not.

  135. frjohnk says:

    Kinger_Oil.redux: Anyway, I’m warming up to the idea that an upgrade in goalie isn’t crazy talk, or at least a goalie that has a chance as back-up to just win the starting position based on performance.

    – Talbot played hard and a lot of games last year, and helped this team, he earned his keep then some: he was exactly what we needed. It’s likely though that we are at peak Talbot.

    Even with Talbots struggles, they keep putting him out there. I think its for two reasons, 1. they need him to overcome his struggles and must feel that he can do it by playing through it. 2. I do not think Broissant has the confidence of the coaching staff.

    Upgrade in the backup position with a guy that could stem the bleeding when Talbot has some wobbles is something that should be considered.

    EDIT: Talbot made 73 appearances last year and this year he is on pace for 72.

    I guess when the coaches said they wouldnt play Talbot this year as much as last year, they were not joking 🙂

  136. Woodguy v2.0 says:

    Kinger_Oil.redux,

    – Perhaps the PK helps: but that can be a system thingy, or smaller sample. I was using all sits

    GSAA uses shot location and type. There are more high danger shots per shot 4v5 so even if a team is good at it, its critical for evaluating a goalie.

    Goalie still needs to stop the puck and even great PK’s allow way more high danger shots than 5v5.


    – I really think there are lots of fancy stats to suggest Talbot is not bad, not great:

    No, he’s not great.

    There are only two great goalies right now and a 3rd making a case. That’s historical Price and Lundqvist. Bob is stringing together two really high end seasons right now and might be the 3rd.


    – Last year, 58% of his starts were “quality” as per Vollman. League “average” for all goalies is 53%. That’s not a hang your hat on stat, as Talbot had the same % quality start as Lundquist (who does appear to be slowing down), but 16 G with more than 20 starts had better percentages

    I’m not familiar with that metric. Can you explain it please?


    – 2 years ago, his quality start % was 49%: which according to Vollman is “bad”, as its below 50%. There were 45 goalies who played more than 10 games who had better %
    – His overall sv% is just ok: never elite.
    – Anyway, I’m warming up to the idea that an upgrade in goalie isn’t crazy talk, or at least a goalie that has a chance as back-up to just win the starting position based on performance.
    – Talbot played hard and a lot of games last year, and helped this team, he earned his keep then some: he was exactly what we needed. It’s likely though that we are at peak Talbot. He could play this level for awhile no doubt, but we know his ceiling…

    Who that is better is available?

    You should always look to upgrade, especially on the cheap and that usually relies on identifying talent before the team that has the player recognizes it or paying through the ass.

  137. OriginalPouzar says:

    Scungilli Slushy:
    Wayne Gretzky didn’t win the scoring race every year he played. If McD is a problem I suggest folding the team because there is no point in playing anymore, there is no hope of succeeding.

    A couple of holes really hoops most teams especially young ones.

    I’m not saying McDavid is a problem at all but, to your first statement, no he didn’t win it every year but he did win it 7 times in a row and 9 times in 11 years.

  138. Woodguy v2.0 says:

    Georges:
    Woodguy v2.0,

    Hall’s career 5v5 shot and goal rel numbers are much more impressive than Duchene’s. Hall has been a difference maker for his teams. Duchene has not.

    Duchene played on better teams than Hall though and that is everything when looking at Rels.

    Did you look at ratio (SF% GF%) or “for”? (GF/60, SF/60)

    Are you looking are “relative” or “relative team”? Rel vs RelTm

  139. Thinker says:

    OriginalPouzar: I’m not saying McDavid is a problem at all but, to your first statement, no he didn’t win it every year but he did win it 7 times in a row and 9 times in 11 years.

    It’s a different league. It’s been 15 years since someone has one the Art ross back to back (Jagr 2001). In that time, only two players have repeated. Crosby and Malkin both with two. I’m happy if McDavid wins in two more times in his career

  140. Woodguy v2.0 says:

    Kinger_Oil.redux:
    Woodguy v2.0,

    – Good stuff !: see above.the 16th fits how I view him: mediocre. Would that be now that you’ve dug up some numbers and seen mine?

    – Has never been a great goalie as a starter (27th, 9th, 54th)

    – I mean this team has other things to worry about than Cam: but he’s not all that…

    – He was 9th last year on your stat: that’s not Vezina…

    * I see you conclude 10-15: we aren’t far off then…Tougher to win that way: think Detroit with their teams and medicore goelering

    If you use GSAA /100 5v5 last year he’s 6th (min 800)
    AARON.DELL 2.43
    SCOTT.DARLING 2.21
    SERGEI.BOBROVSKY 1.89
    MATTHEW.MURRAY 1.63
    PHILIPP.GRUBAUER 1.61
    CAM.TALBOT 1.42
    ANDERS.NILSSON 1.27
    ANTTI.RAANTA 1.27
    BRADEN.HOLTBY 1.20
    CRAIG.ANDERSON 1.18

    If you use all situations GSAA/100 he was 6th
    SERGEI.BOBROVSKY 2.26
    PHILIPP.GRUBAUER 1.76
    AARON.DELL 1.59
    JOHN.GIBSON 1.52
    MATTHEW.MURRAY 1.52
    CAM.TALBOT 1.32
    SCOTT.DARLING 1.29
    ANDERS.NILSSON 1.26
    JIMMY.HOWARD 1.02
    BRADEN.HOLTBY 1.01

    I don’t know how you got 9th

    Also,

    Yeah, when you have Datsyuk, Zetterberg, Hossa, Franson, Lidstronm, and Ralfaski you’re ok with average.

    Most teams win a Cup with a hot goalie.

    Very often the goalie wasn’t the hottest during the regular year but was close.

    Peter Chiarelli got 16 wins one spring with Thomas getting a .938 all situations SV%

    Kevin Lowe got 15 wins one spring with Roloson getting a .927 but then getting hurt in the first game of the Stanley Cup Final.

    Markenen went .905 the rest of the way and the missed by one.

    Man.

  141. frjohnk says:

    Woodguy v2.0: Peter Chiarelli got 16 wins one spring with Thomas getting a .938 all situations SV%

    Wow, I knew that Thomas played well but that save % is out of this world, no wonder why they won.

    Woodguy v2.0: Kevin Lowe got 15 wins one spring with Roloson getting a .927 but then getting hurt in the first game of the Stanley Cup Final.

    Markenen went .905 the rest of the way and the missed by one.

    Man.

    MAB’s worst play as an Oiler.

  142. JimmyV1965 says:

    Scungilli Slushy: Sekera is great but he’s 31 with a major knee injury. He won’t help at the heart of this team’s core. Nurse is a rare player in that he only lacks high offense and he brings nasty with ridiculous mobility, that is truly valuable or they employ guys like Gryba. Remember that skill comp where he skates as fast backwards as the forwards did normally?

    Klefbom Nurse Larsson as the core, find a rightie. I think that’s possibly what Chia is calling around about. Benning needs third pair for a while yet. Scary to think what he’d trade for that.

    I wouldn’t write off nurses offensive upside quite yet. He’s our fastest dman, he’s improved big time rushing the puck and he’s starting to get the puck through.

    PS. Replied to wrong comment. Sorry.

  143. Thinker says:

    JimmyV1965: I wouldn’t write off nurses offensive upside quite yet.He’s our fastest dman, he’s improved big time rushing the puck and he’s starting to get the puck through.

    PS. Replied to wrong comment. Sorry.

    I agree. I don’t know that ge will score a lot of goals, but I do think he will see things open up better as he matures. He was alwas pinching in junior, and I think he has all the tools.

  144. deardylan says:

    Lowetide,

    Thanks for introducing me to that song.

    Didn’t listen to country music until I moved from Toronto to E-town (my paradigm from out east was that country music sucked) although when I heard Alabama’s “I’m In a Hurry To Get Things Done” at JRJs in 1992 after a tequila shot and saw all the smiling people rushing to dance I opened my mind to it and it didn’t suck any more!

    Like this line in the song…

    If dreams were thunder
    Lightning was desire
    This old house woulda burnt down
    A long time ago

  145. deardylan says:

    OSCARMIKE says:
    It took the Oilers 3 on 3 to beat the worst team in the league.
    There is no 3 on 3 in playoffs.
    Nothing special about this win
    Chia doesn’t have a clue.
    Oilers suck. It’s a fact

    What sucks?

    That triggers the Bruce Springsteen Keynote Speech at SXSW. Where he talks about they beauty of opinions… you are the greatest or YOU SUCK.

    He said about himself…

    Bruce Springsteen, natural–born poetic genius off the streets of Monmouth County, hardest – hardest working – hardest working New Jerseyian in show business, voice of the common man, future of Rock and Roll!”,

    or “HE SUCKS”!!

    Check out 1.55 in Video for full effect. https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=VW05XedG4zk

    Isn’t it one of the funniest and powerful (to me) speeches that a rocker ever woke up early in morning to give about what sucks or doesn’t suck!

    What Doesn’t Suck to Me?

    Isn’t hockey awesome you can fight someone, beat them to a pulp and get a 5 min penalty and if you did outside the rink you would be in serious trouble.

    You can high stick and come out of the penalty box and everything is pretty much forgotten. I love penalties.

    Can I play referee for a second since everyone deserves some time in the sin bin and to go on the powerplay. Just score when you do okay!

    2 minutes for high sticking OP

    OP wrote, “Feel free to have the negative outlook on everything, that is your choice”

    That might not be 100% true is it? I am sure Oscarmike is positive about many things in his life although right now Oilers suck to him.

    Oscarmike gets a powerplay!

    Cassandra: 2 minutes penalty for leaving crease area during altercation.

    You replied to OP ” This is new age nonsense”

    Is that 100% true? Was OP really talking “new age” non-sense.

    Would it be better if he talked from the dark ages? Didn’t an old ager called Henry Ford say something along the lines of “Whether you think you can or think you can’t your right.” Could the new age philosophy have some sliver of truth? Could there be 1% of sense in there?

    I don’t know for you–it did for me like “7 Habits by Stephen Covey”, Brian Tracy’s “Psychology of Selling” and Paulo Coehlo’s The Alchemist or or check out that Springsteen video where he talks about the new age of music https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=VW05XedG4zk?

    OP gets awarded a powerplay.

    Okay be nice to your referee, score on your powerplay or score a shorthanded goal. Just don’t suck or OscarMike will call you out!

  146. Georges says:

    Woodguy v2.0,

    “… and that is everything when looking at Rels”

    Why do you think that?

  147. anjinsan says:

    Dear LT,
    Sodomize Chiarelli if he trades away RNH.
    Kind regards,
    -A decades long Oiler fan

  148. OriginalPouzar says:

    Thinker: Skip

    I’m not going to disagree with that – I was just responding to the statement that Gretzky didn’t win it every year when, in actuality, he pretty much did.

  149. Cassandra says:

    Woodguy v2.0: Duchene played on better teams than Hall though and that is everything when looking at Rels.

    Did you look at ratio (SF% GF%) or “for”? (GF/60, SF/60)

    Are you looking are “relative” or “relative team”?Rel vs RelTm

    Georges is right on this. The fact that Duchene played on better teams than Hall hurts Duchene’s case because his raw numbers are worse as well.

    So Duchene and Hall scored at similar rates, but Colorado allowed more shots and goals against while Duchene was on the ice, despite Duchene playing on better teams.

    I’ve been saying it since the Duchen trade rumours began, but Hall is a much better player than Duchene, and the numbers support this. Which only makes the large return Duchene received more galling.

  150. Lucinius says:

    Cassandra,

    Galling perhaps, but not surprising. Perception is often more important in the NHL than reality. Perception in the NHL is (and was) that Duchene was a superior player to Hall. The truth doesn’t matter. It is one of the (many) reasons why the NHL is and will continue to be bush-league.

  151. LadiesloveSmid says:

    Why are we trading Drai?

    Probably my favourite player right now, along with Larsson. Drai, let alone 97, is worth the price of admission. What a fun player stylistically. So so talented, will give MacTavish his credit where it’s due on LD

  152. Ryan says:

    Lucinius,

    How do you like them apples, Mr Dorion?

    Wow. I wasn’t paying attention.

    Duchene is 9 games – 1,0, -10

  153. Lucinius says:

    Ryan,

    It isn’t very surprising to me, especially considering the current state of the Sens.

    I’ve never been a huge fan of Duchene. Good player, sure, but I don’t think he’s ever been as good as he’s been hyped up to be. When there was talk of the Oilers trying to get Duchene I was very much against it because while he would have been a good player to have I never felt the assets required to get him would have left the team in a better position.

    The Hall trade, by comparison, makes sense. Good trade? No. But there was sound logic underlying the trade; the Oilers simply didn’t get enough back. Love Larsson, glad he’s on the team, and I understand (and don’t mind, on the whole) the trade. But it was very much a trade geared towards losing a battle to win the war type situation.

    The Duchene trade doesn’t fit that logical basis, imo.

  154. Thinker says:

    OriginalPouzar: I’m not going to disagree with that – I was just responding to the statement that Gretzky didn’t win it every year when, in actuality, he pretty much did.

    Stop putting words in my mouth.

  155. Ryan says:

    Lucinius,

    The scoring winger is the NHL’s frivolous luxury item like a Louis Vuitton hand bag.

    Every Gm / woman wants one, but until they have the other necessities, it doesn’t matter very much.

    If Hall was a centre, his trade value would have been vastly more.

    You can make a decent line with a legit top six centre and a couple iffy wingers, but you can’t make a decent line with Hall centred by Marc Arcobello.

  156. danny says:

    Player value by position
    1. Top Pairing Dman
    2. 1st Line Center
    3. 1st Line Winger

    In order for a 1st line winger to fetch a top pairing Dman, or1st line center, you have to lose the trade at face value. It’s only logical.

  157. Thinker says:

    danny:
    Player value by position
    1. Top Pairing Dman
    2. 1st Line Center
    3. 1st Line Winger

    In order for a 1st line winger to fetch a top pairing Dman, or1st linecenter, you have to lose the trade at face value. It’s only logical.

    Think it’s actually
    1. Top Pairing Dman
    2. 1st Line Center
    3. Slow tough winger
    4. tweener
    5. 4-5 defenseman
    6- prospect who just isn’t ready
    7. the clogged toilet on the first floor concourse
    8.Top six winger

  158. NYC-Back-to-Tokyo Oil (Gentleman Backpacker) says:

    If Hall played C he would have likely returned Jones plus since he would have been a better producing C than Johansen.

    People would be far less upset if Jones was on the blue instead of Larsson.

    But Chia traded Seguin and he traded Hall for less than full value.

    That said I would like to believe that any decent GM should be working the phones You never know what might happen or who might shake loose. Maybe even a Hall type player. Who knows.

    Kick the tires. He should. Just don’t do anything (else) rash.

  159. John Chambers says:

    Cassandra: Georges is right on this.The fact that Duchene played on better teams than Hall hurts Duchene’s case because his raw numbers are worse as well.

    So Duchene and Hall scored at similar rates, but Colorado allowed more shots and goals against while Duchene was on the ice, despite Duchene playing on better teams.

    I’ve been saying it since the Duchen trade rumours began, but Hall is a much better player than Duchene, and the numbers support this.Which only makes the large return Duchene received more galling.

    I can’t quite square your logic.

    Hall was traded for a 24 min / night defenseman playing on the teams top pairing on a value contract.

    Duchesne was traded for two rookies without draft pedigree, and a basket of draft picks.

    Did Colorado also win the Ryan O’Reilly trade? They’re similar deals in a lot of respects.

  160. GMB3 says:

    John Chambers: I can’t quite square your logic.

    Hall was traded for a 24 min / night defenseman playing on the teams top pairing on a value contract.

    Duchesne was traded for two rookies without draft pedigree, and a basket of draft picks.

    Did Colorado also win the Ryan O’Reilly trade? They’re similar deals in a lot of respects.

    I think considering the fact Duchene publicly asked for a trade, the return was impressive. Girard is trending to be a pretty good player too.

    That’s one thing that bothered me about the Hall and Reinhart trades. He traded them to move the window to be competitive forward, yet he was more than willing to make some risky bets entering the season. If you didn’t picture the Oilers as contenders, would it not have made more sense to trade Hall for a defensive prospect with a high ceiling? Why trade picks in a stacked draft for Reinhart.

  161. OriginalPouzar says:

    Thinker: Stop putting words in my mouth.

    Not your words – the post I was originally responding to.

  162. OriginalPouzar says:

    Yamamoto with an assist in a 6-2 win.

  163. OriginalPouzar says:

    Looking forward to a great game tonight.

    The boys will need to take care of the puck against a dynamic offensive team.

    Here is hoping that Talbot can at least back up (hopefully start) so that neither of JP nor Slep need to be assigned to Bakersfield to call-up Ellis. I’d like to see that lines that were run at practice.

    Go Oilers!

  164. Woodguy v2.0 says:

    Georges:
    Woodguy v2.0,

    “… and that is everything when looking at Rels”

    Why do you think that?

    Just simple math.

    The identical player will look much better via Rels on the Oilers from 2010-2015 than the Penguins during the same time.

    Straight Rels are “on/off” so a player like Hall will have some of the best in the league during that time.

    Example:

    Player Season Rel SF%
    EVGENI.MALKIN 2014-2015 -0.56
    EVGENI.MALKIN 2015-2016 1.01
    EVGENI.MALKIN 2016-2017 0.68
    EVGENI.MALKIN 2017-2018 0.95
    TAYLOR.HALL 2014-2015 0.78
    TAYLOR.HALL 2015-2016 5.15
    TAYLOR.HALL 2016-2017 6.82
    TAYLOR.HALL 2017-2018 6.59

    Player Season RelT GF%
    EVGENI.MALKIN 2014-2015 5.27
    EVGENI.MALKIN 2015-2016 -3.18
    EVGENI.MALKIN 2016-2017 10.2
    EVGENI.MALKIN 2017-2018 -1.26
    TAYLOR.HALL 2014-2015 14.19
    TAYLOR.HALL 2015-2016 10.53
    TAYLOR.HALL 2016-2017 9.49
    TAYLOR.HALL 2017-2018 1.51

    No one will ever argue that Hall is a better than Malkin, but his Rels are way better (mostly) due to the team he’s played on.

  165. Woodguy v2.0 says:

    Cassandra: Georges is right on this.The fact that Duchene played on better teams than Hall hurts Duchene’s case because his raw numbers are worse as well.

    So Duchene and Hall scored at similar rates, but Colorado allowed more shots and goals against while Duchene was on the ice, despite Duchene playing on better teams.

    I’ve been saying it since the Duchen trade rumours began, but Hall is a much better player than Duchene, and the numbers support this.Which only makes the large return Duchene received more galling.

    Their raw numbers were fairly close up until last season iirc

    5v5 Points/60
    Player Season P/60
    MATT.DUCHENE 2013-2014 2.57
    MATT.DUCHENE 2014-2015 2.24
    MATT.DUCHENE 2015-2016 2.17
    MATT.DUCHENE 2016-2017 1.45
    MATT.DUCHENE 2017-2018 1.65

    TAYLOR.HALL 2013-2014 2.68
    TAYLOR.HALL 2014-2015 1.91
    TAYLOR.HALL 2015-2016 2.26
    TAYLOR.HALL 2016-2017 1.64
    TAYLOR.HALL 2017-2018 2.60

    Primary 5v5 pts/60
    Player Season P1/60
    MATT.DUCHENE 2013-2014 1.99
    MATT.DUCHENE 2014-2015 1.64
    MATT.DUCHENE 2015-2016 1.74
    MATT.DUCHENE 2016-2017 1.10
    MATT.DUCHENE 2017-2018 1.44

    TAYLOR.HALL 2013-2014 1.74
    TAYLOR.HALL 2014-2015 1.47
    TAYLOR.HALL 2015-2016 1.97
    TAYLOR.HALL 2016-2017 1.26
    TAYLOR.HALL 2017-2018 2.25

    Hall is the better player via these metrics, but its not *that* far off.

    They both had wobble in 16/17, but Hall has bounced back and is even running a bit hot this year and Duchene has yet to bounce back (if he will)

  166. OriginalPouzar says:

    I haven’t been following the posts in this thread re: Duchene/Hall that closely but Duchene’s mainstream numbers are pretty awful since the trade.

    He was having a bounce-back year in Colorado (aftter a 4-year regression similar to Jordan Eberle) but, since the trade, he’s got 1 point in 9 games and is a -10.

    That’s worse that Pakarinan numbers.

  167. frjohnk says:

    Before we were talking at Talbot and the goaltending situation

    For shits and giggles I looked at how Vegas is doing with their goalies

    When Dansk, Fluery and Subban have played the goalies put up a .932 save percentage. Team was 10-2 when those 3 played.

    In their absence, Lagace put up a .870 save percentage and the team has gone 5 wins 5 losses 1 OT loss. The .870 is the worst save % for a goalie with more than 10 starts.

    Even with bad goaltending, they have still won games as their offense is one of the best in the league

    They have scored the 4th highest goals per game with 3.52 goals/game. Oilers are 27th with 2.68 goals/game
    They have 5 players with 19 points or more. Draisaitl is 2nd on the Oilers with 18 points.

    I expect Vegas to eventually falter, but this just shows that even with the worst goaltending in the league, Vegas has still been able to score and still has found ways to win.

  168. Woodguy v2.0 says:

    OriginalPouzar:
    I haven’t been following the posts in this thread re: Duchene/Hall that closely but Duchene’s mainstream numbers are pretty awful since the trade.

    He was having a bounce-back year in Colorado (aftter a 4-year regression similar to Jordan Eberle) but, since the trade, he’s got 1 point in9 games and is a -10.

    That’s worse that Pakarinan numbers.

    He’s played 113 minutes for OTT.

    You may want to reserve judgement for now.

    4 most common F mates in OTT:
    With TOI With
    Mike Hoffman 49.52
    Bobby Ryan 43.22
    Ryan Dzingel 41.82
    Mark Stone 35.60

    CF% with said mates:
    With CF% With
    Mike Hoffman 57.9
    Bobby Ryan 50.0
    Ryan Dzingel 50.0
    Mark Stone 38.9

    Weirdness in a small sample with Stone.

    He’ll be fine.

  169. Cassandra says:

    Ryan:
    Lucinius,

    The scoring winger is the NHL’s frivolous luxury item like a Louis Vuitton hand bag.

    Every Gm / woman wants one, but until they have the other necessities, it doesn’t matter very much.

    If Hall was a centre, his trade value would have been vastly more.

    You can make decent line with a legit top six centre and a couple iffy wingers, but you can’t make a decent line with Hall centred by Marc Arcobello.

    I completely disagree. I think it is a myth that centers are inherently more valuable than wingers. What matters is the best player on the line, and how they play, not their position. If what you are saying is true you would see more variation in the numbers in wingers, and less in the numbers of centers (i.e. you are suggesting that the center is the independent variable in the line), but this is not the case.

    Likewise, Hall + Arcobello + a good winger (but not as good as Hall) would be a very good line.

    Position doesn’t matter. There is no evidence that it does.

  170. russ99 says:

    frjohnk:
    Before we were talking at Talbot and the goaltending situation

    For shits and giggles I looked at how Vegas is doing with their goalies

    When Dansk, Fluery and Subban have played the goalies put up a .932 save percentage.Team was 10-2 when those 3 played.

    In their absence, Lagace put up a .870 save percentage and the team has gone 5 wins 5 losses 1 OT loss.The .870 is the worst save % for a goalie with more than 10 starts.

    Even with bad goaltending, they have still won games as their offense is one of the best in the league

    They have scored the 4th highest goals per game with 3.52 goals/game.Oilers are 27th with 2.68 goals/game
    They have 5 players with 19 points or more.Draisaitl is 2nd on the Oilers with 18 points.

    I expect Vegas to eventually falter, but this just shows that even with the worst goaltending in the league, Vegas has still been able to score and still has found ways to win.

    Despite the frequent goalie rotation due to injury, Vegas is 11th in goals allowed. Winning hockey games isn’t either/or about offense and goaltending, team defense plays a part as well.

  171. Cassandra says:

    Woodguy v2.0,

    Hall put up his numbers while allowing fewer shots and goals against, while playing on a worse team. Defense matters, and Hall is the better defensive player.

  172. Cassandra says:

    John Chambers: I can’t quite square your logic.

    Hall was traded for a 24 min / night defenseman playing on the teams top pairing on a value contract.

    Duchesne was traded for two rookies without draft pedigree, and a basket of draft picks.

    Did Colorado also win the Ryan O’Reilly trade? They’re similar deals in a lot of respects.

    I would much rather have the return Colorado received than Larsson. It isn’t particularly close.

  173. Cassandra says:

    The center vs. winger thing is a good research question. If it is true that centers are more valuable than wingers, that means that centers are the independent variable in terms of results, while wingers are the dependent variable. This is something that can be isolated with statistical methods.

    Georges, go to work.

  174. Surly says:

    The #NJDevils have acquired defenseman Sami Vatanen and a conditional third-round pick from Anaheim. New Jersey sends forwards Adam Henrique, Joseph Blandisi and a 2018 third-round pick to the Ducks.

  175. OriginalPouzar says:

    We could have used Vatanen over the last few months but he was hurt to start the season.

    With Sekera coming back we are in less of a dire spot.

    Unfortunately, the Russell contract locked in our defensive group for the next few years (subject to trading a d-man out) and we don’t have room for external upgrades.

  176. Kinger_Oil.redux says:

    Cassandra:
    The center vs. winger thing is a good research question.If it is true that centers are more valuable than wingers, that means that centers are the independent variable in terms of results, while wingers are the dependent variable.This is something that can be isolated with statistical methods.

    Georges, go to work.

    – All things being equal, the Centre touches the puck most, he has the most responsibility as the guy who goes deep for Defensive responsibilites, faceoffs, covers the most ground, passes more, etc

    – It’s also, all things being equal a result of natural selection: my son’s under-8 team team (as was my team as a kid and all organized hockey): the “best” player: he plays centre on the top line. On any team the most complete player is always C. The fastest kid, he ends up being that kid’s winger. The bigger, smarter kids they play D. the quirky kid, he thrives at being the G…

    – I’m sure you could quantify this, but really the best players end up being C because its the most varied and important role in generating offence, and the best players start off playing C as kids

    – It’s not rocket science, just how hockey is played. C’s, all things being equal are most important

  177. Georges says:

    Woodguy v2.0,

    I use Rel’s to determine if a player made a difference for his team, i.e., were the on/off results for the player different enough to notice? Did he stand out from his context? Yes? No? Close? I use the rel numbers to assign players to categories. Difference maker, close, or a player whose results are indistinguishable from his team’s.

    I don’t use corsica’s rel numbers because I think they only include games in which a player played. I include results for the games the player didn’t play in the off sample. Those results provide information on the performance of the team with the player off the ice so I don’t leave them out.

    Yes, a 4th line player on an all-star or Olympic team would be a very good player but could still have poor rels. But teams in the NHL aren’t all-star teams. And coaches tend to allocate TOI rationally based on the relative results they’re observing from their players. For the most part.

    Malkin happened to have the best player in the game on the ice for a lot of the time that he was off. Despite this, he has still reached the threshold of positive difference maker on 5v5 GF% over his career. He’s good enough to stand out from a context that includes Crosby for a big chunk of time. As a rule, good players stand out from their context. That’s how we can identify them.

    Hall has played on weak teams. He has stood out. Duchene has played on not as weak teams. He hasn’t stood out. Landeskog and Mackinnon have stood out on those teams. They’ve been difference makers. Duchene blends into the background. He hasn’t cost his teams. He just hasn’t made a significant positive difference.

    As you’ve pointed out, Hall was 50+ on GF% on teams that were routinely near 40. He was winning the 5v5 battle when he was on the ice while the team was getting pummeled with him off the ice. That’s a difference maker.

    With Duchene over the previous 4 seasons, it looks like this:

    GF%

    On 47.7
    Off 46.7

    SF%

    On 47.0
    Off 46.2

    Not a difference maker. Blends into his context.

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