A Conversation

After several weeks of struggle, Peter Chiarelli’s auditioning youngsters have shown some signs of growth. Jesse Puljujarvi is going to the net, Connor McDavid is finding uses for the young giant, Jujhar Khaira is pushing up the batting order and Darnell Nurse is adding zero’s to that next contract by the day with his fine play. One audition that seems to be coming to an end, or at least a detour? Laurent Brossoit’s role as backup.

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A CONVERSATION

  1. Do they go get a goalie? I think they have to, yes.
  2. When? Today would be good.
  3. Who? AHL.com has  goalies save percentage, look for someone over .920. One of them is my guess, unless a team has a veteran backup they’d like to offload. I’ll say Anders Lindback. Michael Hutchinson.
  4. What about Laurent Brossoit? I think the Oilers will start Nick Ellis on Wednesday, bring Brossoit back in relief if necessary. That was a tough game.
  5. Do you like the Brandon Davidson pickup? Yes, very much. I think Davidson will be one of the top 6D even when Sekera returns.
  6. What do the ideal pairings look like? I’ll say Klefbom-Larsson, Nurse-Sekera, Davidson-Benning and Russell. You could run Russell anywhere and rotate 5-6-7 as required. That’s a solid defensive group. I know that sounds provocative, having Russell 7D, but it might be Sekera as 7D because he may not be 100 percent upon return.
  7. Do you like the new forward Nathan Walker? We’ll have to see him. The AHL numbers imply a checking forward with wheels, Jason Rogers with Japers Rink pointed out to me on SSE he was driving possession on Washington’s fourth line. I think he’s an upgrade on Pakarinen if he can help in possession but would suggest he trails the other young wingers on the Oilers offensively.
  8. What is this season about? Auditions. I’ve been saying this since August, when will you believe me?
  9. They are all failing. No sir. Some of these young men are emerging. Darnell Nurse is flourishing in a prominent role. That’s a very important thing for this organization.
  10. Why isn’t it making any difference? Andrej Sekera is injured and hasn’t played one minute, Oscar Klefbom isn’t 100 percent and is playing. Lots of reasons to explain why one player has emerged while the team is struggling overall.
  11. Who else? Jesse Puljujarvi is coming on now, you can see it. He is on pace for 26 goals this season, that would represent a terrific spike year over year, and announce the big man’s arrival.
  12. Who else else? Jujhar Khaira, what a wonderful story. This is a player who was chosen in the third round of the Nail Yakupov draft, behind the fabulous Russian and also behind Mitchell Moroz. He’s on a hot streak, I don’t expect him to finish 15-20-35 but even if he can score 10 goals this season that’s a big step forward.
  13. Who is losing the grip? Anton Slepyshev seems to be the next man out (Iiro Pakarinen was waived and scored a goal for Bakersfield Sunday evening). He has one goal, is losing playing time to Mike Cammalleri and both Puljujarvi and Khaira have moved ahead of him on the depth chart. He’s on the fringe as we speak, I can see him moving out soon.
  14. You liked him. Yes, I think a team acquiring Slepyshev is going to get a lot of tools, including size, speed and a helluva shot.
  15. And one goal! You know, one of the things we forget is that timing is a big deal. Marc Habscheid was 19 in 1982-83 and played 32 games for the Oilers (13 points). Walt Poddubny had a giant season for the Wichita Wind in 1981-82. Tom Roulston had 40 points for the Oilers in 1982-83. Ken Berry scored well in a couple of cups of coffee. Ray Cote was impressive in the playoffs 1983. Raimo Summanen scored five points in five games on the run to the first Stanley Cup. None of them made it, because another player came along and ate their lunch.
  16. So Slepyshev loses a job because of Nathan Walker? No, Slepyshev loses a job because Jesse Puljujarvi and Jujhar Khaira are eating his lunch currently. Maybe Slepy gets another shot, right now he looks dangerously close to getting a ticket to Bakersfield or elsewhere.
  17. So you’re off today. Yes.
  18. That means the Oilers make two trades. Yes.

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259 Responses to "A Conversation"

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  1. OriginalPouzar says:

    Khaira has 7 points in his last 8 games. Moreso, he is carrying the puck with authority through the defensive and neutral zones. I really never thought he had this level of play in him.

    He’s found some chemistry with Letestu and Kassian and that line is looking great – like they did early in pre-season.

    Not to mention, the advances PK metrics have him right up there as our top PK forward (small sample size there).

    Good arrows on Jujhar right now.

    He will replace Letestu as the 4C next year.

    Will he be able to replace Letestu as our top shootout guy?

  2. Jethro Tull says:

    Guys fighting for places because they are playing well, instead of someone else sucking is a good thing that happens on good teams. So is a player getting traded not because he sucks, but because there isn’t a place for him. Chicago springs to mind.

  3. Jethro Tull says:

    OriginalPouzar,

    Something ‘clicked’ with Khaira. Now consistency is his goal. Not expecting 7pts in 8gms pace but definitely play that helps not hinders the team.

  4. OriginalPouzar says:

    I like the Davidson pick-up as well.

    When (if) fully healthy – both Gryba and Auvitu will be exposed to waivers – if they get claimed, so be it, if not, it will be great for the Condors.

    You really think Davidson will play over Benning and/or Russell?

  5. russ99 says:

    Kris Russell is keeping his job as a regular defenseman, even when Sekera is back, he does things that are of value to the coaching staff.

    Not to mention, Nurse – Russell is doing really good things as a pair and should stick, at least until Sekera is back up to speed. Woodguy agrees.

    The Davidson move is insurance for Larsson’s injury and eventually pushes back the Gryba -Auvitu chaos to the bench/AHL.

    Davidson hasn’t really done much in Montreal, so we can’t expect him to come in and claim a higher spot. He’s a better option than Gryba and Dillon Simpson, that’s why we claimed him.

  6. OriginalPouzar says:

    I wonder if Walker and/or Slepyshev get in to the lineup on Wednesday?

    Assuming Kassian is good to go (sometimes a guy can finish a game and then miss a few), I don’t see how we get either in to the lineup.

    I don’t think Walker can be placed anywhere other than the fourth line and there is no way you break that line up at this point (no, Khaira doesn’t get moved up the lineup even though he’s been producing consistently).

    The only forward that I think could/should come out for Slep would be Drake and it seems coach thinks he’s more of an every day player than Slep is.

    I think both those guys might have to wait until the weekend, at the earliest.

  7. OriginalPouzar says:

    Jethro Tull:
    OriginalPouzar,

    Something ‘clicked’ with Khaira. Now consistency is his goal. Not expecting 7pts in 8gms pace but definitely play that helps not hinders the team.

    Yes, consistency and health – agreed.

  8. jake70 says:

    Habscheid, Berry, Cote – man brings me back to the early 80s following them here as Moncton Alpines, Oilers affiliate for 2 years before moving on as NovaScotia/Cape Breton Oilers. Brad Malone’s dad Jim played on the 82-83 team – so a small connection there. AHL teams made their exodus from Atlantic Canada, now all QMJHL teams…probably in the minority, maybe the only one but I miss those AHL days.

  9. Jethro Tull says:

    OriginalPouzar: Yes, consistency and health – agreed.

    Well ‘health’ has always been a bone of contention with me. A player can keep himself ‘healthy’ but usually people equate it to injury sustained during games. Is it possible some players arw more injury prone than others? Maybe. But i remember Hall being vilified for some douche running over him with a skate and people saying he can’t stay healthy.

  10. jeetz says:

    Do not give up on Slepyshev. he was hurt at the start of the year and got hurt again after he came back. Do not forget about last years playoffs. Big guys who can skate with actual NHL tools are hard to find. This is a guy struggling to get into his rhythm. Patience with the big man.

    I would put him in instead of Cammaleri ASAP.

  11. Surrey Oiler says:

    Need the goaltending issue addressed ASAP
    LB isn’t an NHL goalie and Ellis is just too raw at this point
    Chia needs to fix this mess which he clearly did not address
    in the off season.

  12. kgo says:

    During training camp someone here with shiny object prospect syndrome suggested Gambardella play above Khaira in the lineup and I said “Khaira will surprise a lot of people”

    A toe da sew Randy!

  13. OriginalPouzar says:

    Dreger is reporting that teams are acquiring about the availability of Chad Johnson and Robyn Lehner.

    Johnson would be great but I don’t know abut his $2.5M cap hit (UFA at the end of the year though – shouldn’t cost much to acquire).

  14. OriginalPouzar says:

    Aapeli Rasanen was invited to the Finish WJCH camp – I think there is another step to make the team but this is good news.

  15. StixMalone says:

    Davidson pickup is only good if we get the pre-injury version. He’s struggled since we waived him the first time. Will he be another reclamation player that pans out or busts? Price was cheap since no roster player went out. We wait and see.

    Since we have picked up 2 players off waivers how many are we allowed? No other team obviously put a claim on Davidson in order for us to be able to claim him? Is this correct?…

  16. Rondo says:

    A interesting take on Moneyball. Most of it I had no idea of. Gets political near the end so skip if you wish.

    http://www.unz.com/article/moneybull-an-inquiry-into-media-manipulation/

  17. Optimism is like heroin says:

    just a thought here

    even if Jesse and Jujhar both solidify spots as top 9 wingers we will still be shy on the wings. Lucic, Puljujarvi, Khaira, Kassian, Strome, Slepyshev and Cagigula don’t inspire me with confidence going into the future. IMO moving Dmen prospects and picks for wingers has to be a priority. Would a Cagigula + Caleb Jones bring back someone like Andreas Athanasiou?

  18. JimmyV1965 says:

    Why is Darnell Nurse not on PP2? He is simply superior at every facet of the game than Matt Benning. I rewatched the first period of the Oilers game last night. What stood out for me was the play of Benning. He was an absolute tire fire. Not only did he fumble the puck on the PP at the point, causing the first Flames goal, he took a penalty, made a bad pinch that resulted in a 2 on 1, tried clearing the puck in the dzone and passed it right to a flame, resulting in a scoring chance. He did something bad with the puck almost every shift he was on the ice. During one inexplicable rush he went straight through the middle of the ice, even though he didn’t have complete control of a bouncing puck. Yet he somehow managed to go right through two Flames players and get the puck into the ozone. Nothing happened on the play, but he was incredibly lucky because it could have easily resulted in a two-man breakaway. I was actually shocked how poor his play was. I’m sure TMac watches the games as well. He must have been pulling out his hair.

  19. doritogrande says:

    When (if) fully healthy – both Gryba and Auvitu will be exposed to waivers – if they get claimed, so be it, if not, it will be great for the Condors.

    Even if demoted to California, there’s little chance Gryba plays due to “veteran” rules in the AHL. Not sure what Auvitu’s status is regarding the veteran rule because I don’t know how many pro games he played overseas. He’d have to rotate with the likes of Stanton and Lowe.

  20. Dustylegnd says:

    russ99,

    Agreed, when you listen to the comments TMc had re: Russel’s own goal, TMc has a massive belief in Russel and the attributes he brings to the team, one can only assume his team mates love him too, they paid him 4 mill per year to play higher than 7D trust me he will

    The fact that the Oil chose to sign K Lowe’s son and deploy him in the AHL, effectively impeding the development of their own homegrown D corps, confirms this organization is still far from a meritocracy confirming Russel will be no lower than 5D for at least the next 2 years, which is not necessarily a bad thing…you know exactly what you are getting

  21. who says:

    jeetz:
    Do not give up on Slepyshev. he was hurt at the start of the year and got hurt again after he came back. Do not forget about last years playoffs. Big guys who can skate with actual NHL tools are hard to find. This is a guy struggling to get into his rhythm. Patience with the big man.

    I would put him in instead of Cammaleri ASAP.

    Yeah I would be running Slepeshev out there every night for 40 games just to see what you’ve got. I haven’t seen anything in his play that warrants the press box.

  22. Pouzar says:

    who: I haven’t seen anything in his play that warrants the press box.

    Because Oilers.

  23. jimmers2 says:

    Rondo:
    Ainteresting take on Moneyball. Most of it I had no idea of.Gets political near the end so skip if you wish.

    http://www.unz.com/article/moneybull-an-inquiry-into-media-manipulation/

    It is political from start till finish. And it is essentially a critique of the film and not the concepts behind money ball. Odd that in urging the readers to “think for themselves” while panning the film (and I have never seen it, perhaps it is crap), the reviewer leans on a literary crique of this story and has little to say about Moneyball’s hope to promote numbers-oriented critical thinking that is detached from narrative and received wisdom. Which is an approach that ought to promote independent thought…

  24. Lowetide says:

    jake70:
    Habscheid, Berry, Cote – man brings me back to the early 80s following them here as Moncton Alpines, Oilers affiliate for 2 years before moving on as NovaScotia/Cape Breton Oilers.Brad Malone’s dad Jim played on the 82-83 team – so a small connection there.AHL teams made their exodus from Atlantic Canada, now all QMJHL teams…probably in the minority, maybe the only one but I miss those AHL days.

    I loved the uniforms of those teams. Moncton Alpines were pretty cool.

  25. who says:

    JimmyV1965:
    Why is Darnell Nurse not on PP2? He is simply superior at every facet of the game than Matt Benning. I rewatched the first period of the Oilers game last night. What stood out for me was the play of Benning. He was an absolute tire fire. Not only did he fumble the puck on the PP at the point, causing the first Flames goal, he took a penalty, made a bad pinch that resulted in a 2 on 1, tried clearing the puck in the dzone and passed it right to a flame, resulting in a scoring chance. He did something bad with the puck almost every shift he was on the ice. During one inexplicable rush he went straight through the middle of the ice, even though he didn’t have complete control of a bouncing puck. Yet he somehow managed to go right through two Flames players and get the puck into the ozone. Nothing happened on the play, but he was incredibly lucky because it could have easily resulted in a two-man breakaway. I was actually shocked how poor his play was. I’m sure TMac watches the games as well. He must have been pulling out his hair.

    I would say ice time probably plays into it. He’s already playing 25 minutes a night with tough match ups and penalty killing duties. That’s a pretty big load for a 22 year old.

  26. Rondo says:

    jimmers2,

    You obviously didn’t read the whole article.

  27. Lowetide says:

    StixMalone:
    Davidson pickup is only good if we get the pre-injury version. He’s struggled since we waived him the first time.

    Just want to make sure people don’t get confused. Davidson was traded to Montreal.

  28. OriginalPouzar says:

    StixMalone:
    Davidson pickup is only good if we get the pre-injury version. He’s struggled since we waived him the first time. Will he be another reclamation player that pans out or busts? Price was cheap since no roster player went out. We wait and see.

    Since we have picked up 2 players off waivers how many are we allowed? No other team obviously put a claim on Davidson in order for us to be able to claim him? Is this correct?…

    No, we are still at the top of the waiver wire claim list as it goes by standings in inverse order after the first month of the season. Many teams higher than us in the standings could have put in a claim.

    Also, Davidson’s fancies are fantastic this year – he’s been hurt by a horrid PDO:

    CF% 56 (+4.5 Rel)
    FF% 58 (+5.9 Rel)
    SCF% 60 (+6.9 Rel)
    GF% 40 (-10% Rel)
    SV% .892
    SH% 5.9
    PDO 951

  29. papa96 says:

    Eric Comrie: Now there’s a name to conjure with. Posting .927. Local boy, close by (Manitoba Moose), never lost a game in the show (1-0-0).

  30. Pouzar says:

    Slepy for Neuvirth. Book it.

  31. Pouzar says:

    Very interesting. It takes time. Wheeler is a beast now.

    Looking at you Chia.

    Bob Stauffer (@Bob_Stauffer) · Twitter

    https://twitter.com/Bob_Stauffer

    Jesse Puljujarvi has 3-0-3, with 14 SOG and is +6 in his last 4GP…and is miles ahead of where Jets star Blake Wheeler was at 19

  32. Jethro Tull says:

    Lowetide: Just want to make sure people don’t get confused. Davidson was traded to Montreal.

    And as WG showed yesterday, only struggled in GA. Rest of stats pretty good.

  33. Jaxon says:

    If Lucic and Russell had low cost, unprotected, shorter contracts they’d still frustrate me. Lucic has 27 giveaways, only 11 takeaways and a lot of hits. Russell has 21 giveaways, only 5 takeaways and a lot of blocked shots. Both are among the poorest in possession numbers on the team as well. When you put those numbers together there seems to be a correlation with their blocked shots and hits. They both become a symptom of poor play rather than a positive skill. And, to me, that agrees with the eye test. Are they blocking and hitting a lot because they don’t have the puck much, lose it lots and are out of position (Russell’s big gaps or Lucic standing still watching the play?)? I also don’t see Russell controlling the puck after a lot of those blocks. Many go right back to the opposition while Russell is still down and thus sliding out of the play. Not a fan.

  34. Jethro Tull says:

    Pouzar:
    Very interesting. It takes time. Wheeler is a beast now.

    Looking at you Chia.

    Bob Stauffer (@Bob_Stauffer) · Twitter

    https://twitter.com/Bob_Stauffer

    Jesse Puljujarvi has 3-0-3, with 14 SOG and is +6 in his last 4GP…and is miles ahead of where Jets star Blake Wheeler was at 19

    #tinysamplesize
    #prospectsdontdevelopinstraightlines
    #wellbeluckyifjpishalftheplayerwheeleris
    #20/20hindsight

  35. P2theickles1 says:

    19-97-98
    27-29-58
    18-93-91/13/12
    16-55-44

    25-4
    77-83
    88-62

    Would like to get Maroon back on that top line. Has great chemistry with McD and 98 is starting to show up, very happy to see that. Get Lucic with Drai and get Slepy back in that lineup and see if that old playoff line can start to generate some scoring. Drai has been playing well just not getting the puck in. Think he could use a Lucic as they paly much better together. As for the third line I like Nuge as the play maker and Strome as the shooter. Don’t care who there extra winger is so pick whomever of 13/91/12 and see what they bring. Don’t touch that fourth line for now as they have figured out some great chemistry and JJ is playing awesome in his role.
    As for the defense, wow does that D core look bad without 6 in it. Everyone is playing to high in the order. I hope to see him in the game on Wed and then you can sit Gryba and go with:
    77-6
    25-4
    88-83
    Also looking forward to when Sek gets back this will give us a much stronger D core.Run something like this maybe and ease Sek back into the game and sit him and play 88 when needed:
    77-6
    25-4
    2-83

  36. McSorley33 says:

    Lots of silver linings developing with Nurse and Khaira…

    Puju coming along…..

    This year is a write off. Let’s obtain more draft picks – and use them.

    Hopefully, we can afford a UFA winger in the off-season.

    TB missed the playoffs last year.

    Retool for next year.

    Calling Adam Boqvist. Right Shot-

    Adam Boqvist, D, (Brynas, SHL): Described by some as the most Erik Karlsson-like player to come out of Sweden. That’s the comparison that keeps coming up when you talk to scouts.

  37. StixMalone says:

    Lowetide: Just want to make sure people don’t get confused. Davidson was traded to Montreal.

    My bad traded then waived. Thanks

  38. McSorley33 says:

    Boqvist:

    Gifted offensively. Excellent skater, can change gears without hesitation & loves carrying puck, ISS Hockey 2017

  39. OriginalPouzar says:

    McSorley33:
    Lots of silver linings developing with Nurse and Khaira…

    Puju coming along…..

    This year is a write off. Let’s obtain more draft picks – and use them.

    Hopefully, we can afford a UFA winger in the off-season.

    TB missed the playoffs last year.

    Retool for next year.

    Calling Adam Boqvist. Right Shot-

    Adam Boqvist, D, (Brynas, SHL): Described by some as the most Erik Karlsson-like player to come out of Sweden. That’s the comparison that keeps coming up when you talk to scouts.

    I agree with most of this.

    We all know it would take quite the run to make the playoffs at this point, however, management can’t yet “give up on the season” and sell our UFAs – its simply too early with 55 or so games left.

    On the assumption that, no, we aren’t in contention (real contention) for a playoff spot come February then, yes, Maroon, Letestu, Cammy, Auvitu need to be sold for picks/prospects.

    I have zero concern that the Oilers will end up being a bad team year over year. I do liken them to TBL and would think a one-year re-tool, stock the prospect pool even more, will do wonders.

    Its not the way I wanted the year to go, and I haven’t given up on a playoff spot yet, but if we have to go that route, I’m at peace with it.

  40. leadfarmer says:

    Pouzar:
    Very interesting. It takes time. Wheeler is a beast now.

    Looking at you Chia.

    Bob Stauffer (@Bob_Stauffer) · Twitter

    https://twitter.com/Bob_Stauffer

    Jesse Puljujarvi has 3-0-3, with 14 SOG and is +6 in his last 4GP…and is miles ahead of where Jets star Blake Wheeler was at 19

    This is just silly. Wheeler spent 3 years in college and took him a few years of pro time to get on track. So saying he’s ahead of him at 19 is meaningless. We could also say he’s way ahead of Martin St. Louis and Zetterberg at 19 too.

  41. LMHF#1 says:

    I think people have been watching bad Oilers teams for so long that they forget what good teams do.

    You’re supposed to have too many qualified players at key positions. Listening to this goalie debate as if it could in any way be a negative to acquire a qualified backup/part-time starter has got to be one of the most ridiculous things going. The idea that should cost more than a draft pick is also just goofy. If they trade more than that and an iffy prospect, they’re crazed.

    papa96:
    Eric Comrie: Now there’s a name to conjure with.Posting .927.Local boy, close by (Manitoba Moose), never lost a game in the show (1-0-0).

    Degenerative hip issue running in the family. Hutchinson would be a better choice.

  42. John Chambers says:

    Yesterday someone in the thread mentioned a Klefbom for Marner trade …

    Seems crazy to consider trading a #2 or #3 defenseman on a value contract with 5.5 years left on it!

    But you would get back:
    – a talented offensive player on an ELC
    – speed and scoring on RW now
    – cap relief for next season while we endure Russell’s contract

    My preference would be to trade an LD for a RD ultimately, but that option may not exist.

    I any event, the trade would be predicated on Sekera returning and playing like he can anchor the second pair, as well as Davidson stepping in and playing solidly on the 3rd pair.

  43. StixMalone says:

    OriginalPouzar: No, we are still at the top of the waiver wire claim list as it goes by standings in inverse order after the first month of the season. Many teams higher than us in the standings could have put in a claim.

    Also, Davidson’s fancies are fantastic this year – he’s been hurt by a horrid PDO:

    CF% 56 (+4.5 Rel)
    FF% 58 (+5.9 Rel)
    SCF% 60 (+6.9 Rel)
    GF% 40 (-10% Rel)
    SV% .892
    SH% 5.9
    PDO 951

    Yes teams below us passed on him? My question is how many waiver claims can a team pickup. Say you’re at the bottom of the standings all year. You make a claim and get player. Another player comes up. If you move up in the standings teams below get first opportunity? If another guy comes up you want what happens? I know I’m reaching but I’m unclear about the waiver wire priority rules….

  44. jimmers2 says:

    Rondo,

    Rondo

    I did read it all, though quickly. You seem sure that I missed something, and that has been known to happen, so I’ll try to take the time to go back there today and look again.

  45. JimmyV1965 says:

    LMHF#1:
    I think people have been watching bad Oilers teams for so long that they forget what good teams do.

    You’re supposed to have too many qualified players at key positions. Listening to this goalie debate as if it could in any way be a negative to acquire a qualified backup/part-time starter has got to be one of the most ridiculous things going. The idea that should cost more than a draft pick is also just goofy. If they trade more than that and an iffy prospect, they’re crazed.

    Degenerative hip issue running in the family. Hutchinson would be a better choice.

    Toronto got Pickard for a 6th and a warm body to keep their roster number low.

  46. leadfarmer says:

    McSorley33:
    Boqvist:

    Gifted offensively. Excellent skater, can change gears without hesitation & loves carrying puck, ISS Hockey 2017

    His brother was drafted in second round by the Devils. I know people here like to bash their advanced stats but that team is being built the right way. They got Hall and decided to build around Halls speed to the point that Hall may actually be one of their slower players in a few years.

  47. JimmyV1965 says:

    I think this team is capable of going on a nice run, but goaltending is the X factor. Not sure you can string a bunch of wins together with bad goaltending.

  48. Woodguy v2.0 says:

    Did a long twitter thread on why Rask is a bad idea.

    I’ll reproduce it here, but to see the table hit the link: https://twitter.com/Woodguy55/status/937709395185614849

    Re: Rask being a bad idea.
    In one of the posts below is a table with the last 7 years of results for Rask. There is both Save Percentage (SV%) for all situations (5v5, 4v5 etc.) and Goals Saved Above Average per 100 (GSAA/100) shots for all situations.

    I used all goalies with at least 900 minutes/season except this year (300) and lockout year 12-13 (400) as this usually gets you about the top 60 goalies in terms of use in the sample.

    SV% is straight forward, but if you don’t know what GSAA is here’s a link explaining it: http://www.corsica.hockey/blog/2016/08/13/shot-quality-and-expected-goals-part-1-5/

    Basically GSAA “evens the playing field” to compare goalies on all teams by measuring the difficulty of each shot using shot location, type etc. Its not perfect as pre-shot puck movement, screens and other information still isn’t public, but imo it’s the best we have to compare goalies across teams and not have to worry about how the team’s dzone ability is affecting the SV%. Not all shots are equally likely to go in the net so SV% can be a bit misleading sometimes, and this metric takes that into account. Thanks to @mannyelk for making his information public.

    As you can see in the table below, Rask hasn’t been starter quality for 4 years if you use GSAA and for 3 years if you use SV%.

    He was a very good goalie, but those years have past.

    He has 3 years after this one at $7MM/yr and the EDM trading for him would be a disaster for the franchise. Talbot + something good would have to go the other way to make the $ work and it shouldn’t even be contemplated. Fin.

    Season GSAA/100
    11-12 0.78
    12-13 1.18
    13-14 0.36
    14-15 -0.31
    15-16 -0.14
    16-17 -0.33
    17-18 -0.49

    Season Sv%
    11-12 92.91
    12-13 92.86
    13-14 92.99
    14-15 92.24
    15-16 91.54
    16-17 91.46
    17-18 90.58

    NHL rank GSAA
    Season NHL Rank
    11-12 8/52
    12-13 6/57
    13-14 17/64
    14-15 36/55
    15-16 35/61
    16-17 40/57
    17-18 40/59

    NHL rank SV%
    Season NHL Rank
    11-12 6/52
    12-13 5/57
    13-14 6/64
    14-15 13/55
    15-16 35/61
    16-17 31/58
    17-18 37/60

  49. Woodguy v2.0 says:

    StixMalone: Yes teams below us passed on him? My question is how many waiver claims can a team pickup. Say you’re at the bottom of the standings all year. You make a claim and get player. Another player comes up. If you move up in the standings teams below get first opportunity? If another guy comes up you want what happens? I know I’m reaching but I’m unclear about the waiver wire priority rules….

    Priority doesn’t change if you pick anyone up.

    Waiver priority is based on Points %, not total standings points.

    EDM is 29th

    ARI and BUF passed on Davidson.

    I can see ARI passing on him with Chychryn back, but BUF passing on his is silly.

  50. v4ance says:

    Something I drafted near the end of last season but never found time to post…

    I had a chance to sit in on a coaching forum with Tom Renney as the keynote speaker a few months back. He said (paraphrasing cause I can’t remember his exact words) “We had a young team and I had to protect certain players…I was fired because I coached according to my principles.”

    I am reminded of this when thinking of McLellan’s usage of Draisaitl. I believe the coach doesn’t feel Drai is ready to drive a line by himself, even a soft minutes third line. I know looking at the broader 5v5 pts/60 numbers posted by LT and Woodguy, it appears that Drai does fine without McDavid but I think Coach Mac thinks he still needs to support the sophmore by sheltering him with a fellow sophmore on McDavid’s line or by pairing him with a vet like Lucic. (I know, it’s technically his 3rd season but this is really just Draisaitl’s 2nd full season)

    Speaking of Lucic, I’ve noticed a tactical change that’s improved his effectiveness. I was against his signing and for the first 60% of the season, it appeared he had lost more than a step, as I feared. In going thru the neutral zone, defencemen were closely gapping Milan to cause a turnover or allow a backchecking forward to get to him and strip him of the puck. In attempting to play a “Place and chase” Lucic rarely had the footspeed to recover the puck after the “Place” so the chase just ended up as a failed foray over and over. Since every attempted entry by Lucic was thwarted, the line was never able to generate much zone time and was spending too much time defending instead after turning around and heading back to their own zone.

    For the last 10 games or so, I’ve noticed that Lucic doesn’t carry the puck through the neutral zone at all. Instead Ebs or RNH skate or pass the puck between the bluelines with Lucic either being the outlet passer who springs them forward while trailing the play or is the “cherrypicking” forward who accepts the “Place” just entering the opposing blueline with speed after Nuge or Eberle do most of the skating.

    It’s funny, the powerplay had gone through some ups and downs during the year. Without a one timer, it looks like we’ve adopted a PP that relies on lots of cycling and motion to try draw PK formations out of position to open up a cross ice pass. It’s either that or a lot of resets with a point shot and then crashing the net looking for garbage. It works in 5v4 but on 5v3, we’re much less effective because the PKers don’t chase and maintain their rigid triangle formation.

    Since Eberle can’t do one timers, he never plays on the left half wall anymore. Instead, he alternates with RNH on the right half wall as the PP QB or the low post spot. On the left side of the formation, they’ve used Caggulia, Pouliot and now Kassian for a shift or two on the 2nd PP unit

    Put me on the list of “Supporters of Slepshev”. I really think his hard shot would look good on the 1st powerplay in Letestu’s spot on the left half wall as a one-timer option. My opinion is that Letestu is overused on the special teams and that he might be fresher and better PKer if he didn’t play on the 1st PP unit.

    ****

    So I wrote that with about a month to go last season. Funny how even the 5v4 can’t generate good chances now.

    ****

    Here and there around the interwebs, I’ve seen an “appeal to authority” type argument towards trusting Chiarelli because he has won a cup and “knows” how to build another one here in Edmonton. All Cup winning teams need luck but I feel Peter Chiarelli had an abnormal amount to build his team.

    Looking at the history, he got a #1D in Chara and a Vezina goalie in Thomas for nothing but cash and 2 roster spots in 2005/6.

    Chara and Redden were both pending UFAs in 2006 and Ottawa could only afford to sign one to an extension. They picked Redden to receive a 6 year contract and allowed the new hired Boston GM, and former OTT assistant, Chiarelli to snap up Chara as a UFA that summer. Imagine if Ottawa had chosen to sign Chara instead? We might be talking about the 2006-2007 Stanley Cup winning Ottawa Senators right now instead of Anaheim.

    The 31 year old Thomas had 4 games with the Bruins in 2002 but was essentially an NHL rookie in 2005 after a journeyman’s career up to that point. He was in Providence at the start of the year but was recalled when both Raycroft and then Toivonen got injured and he claimed the starting job for that year and the next 7 seasons. He was one of the top 3 netminders in the world during most of those years.

    After getting just those two key pieces, Chiarelli had the core of a cup contender. He made some really good lateral trades to get Horton, Recchi, Ference, etc. and had good drafts to harvest Lucic, Krejci, Bergeron, Seguin, etc that formed the group that won the 2011 cup.

    The closest comparable situation right now would be if Edmonton somehow picked up Victor Hedman as a UFA and found a journeyman goalie in Carey Price. I don’t think that’s gonna be in Chiarelli’s wheelhouse but he did snag a guy named McDavid instead. Most of his bets in Boston worked out and 5 years after he got there, the Bruins had gradually improved and then won the cup.

    What got him fired in 2015 was that the Bruins couldn’t retain or attract enough secondary talent because Chiarelli kept giving his complimentary role players too much money on their extensions. He left the Bruins in a mess of no cap room, too many immovable contracts to declining vets and not enough cheap bargain ELC contracts. It’s taken them the last 3 years, but the Boston team appears to have cleaned out most of the deadwood.

    Chiarelli hasn’t had the same amount of luck in building up the Oilers to be a cup winner and he’s already made it to the phase of “cap maxed team with too many immovable nearly untradeable contracts unless we send along a 2nd rounder for someone to take our garbage”.

    The question was posed: what do we do now? I can smell a dead duck from a mile away after 10 years of DoD and we’ve got the whiff swirling now. I don’t have any illusions that this team can successfully climb out of our current hole based on historical trends. We do have lots of good core pieces in McDavid, Nurse, Drai, RNH, Klef and Talbot. The strategy of nibbling around the edges that Chiarelli has employed in the past week and making incremental gains should continue. I’d suggest selling all the expiring contracts for NHL ready talent in the AHL. Maybe we can find our own Filip Forsberg like Nashville did when they foisted Washington for a few months of Martin Erat. As many others have counselled, patience is what is needed now. This year may be lost but we can’t trade a critical piece of the future now to try and make a failed run at a rapidly disappearing playoff spot.

  51. Bruce McCurdy says:

    Jaxon:
    If Lucic and Russell had low cost, unprotected, shorter contracts they’d still frustrate me. Lucic has 27 giveaways, only 11 takeaways and a lot of hits. Russell has 21 giveaways, only 5 takeaways and a lot of blocked shots. Both are among the poorest in possession numbers on the team as well. When you put those numbers together there seems to be a correlation with their blocked shots and hits. They both become a symptom of poor play rather than a positive skill. And, to me, that agrees with the eye test. Are they blocking and hitting a lot because they don’t have the puck much, lose it lots and are out of position (Russell’s big gaps or Lucic standing still watching the play?)? I also don’t see Russell controlling the puck after a lot of those blocks. Many go right back to the opposition while Russell is still down and thus sliding out of the play. Not a fan.

    How do you land a hit while standing still and watching the play?

    And while you didn’t say it, others have that Russell has to block shots because he’s out of position all the time, which I guess jives if one’s definition of “out of position” = “happens to be right in the shooting lane”.

    Biggest issue that many have with these two guys is their contracts, and that’s certainly a reasonable objection. But sometimes I wonder if that concern overrides anything and everything they might be doing on the ice, some of it which actually helps the team even as it doesn’t fit the narrative.

    Looking at EDM’s scoring leaders this morning, I see Lucic tied for second with 19 points, Russell tied for sixth (and leading the defence corps) with 12. But the narrative remains that the play dies with Lucic and that Russell can’t make a pass in transition to save his soul. For sure there are plenty of examples of those things happening, but the counter-examples seem to be ignored when they aren’t actively hand-waved away.

  52. v4ance says:

    Another thing:

    Kevin Quinn has had an enormously difficult time doing pbp this year. He keeps mistaking Benning (83) for Nuge (93), Benning for Auvitu (91), Lucic(27) for Draisaitl(29) and other mis identifications along the way of opposing team players. Does he need new glasses or has he hit the Bob Cole stage of early senility?

  53. jake70 says:

    Lowetide: I loved the uniforms of those teams. Moncton Alpines were pretty cool.

    Yeah they were neat, not to be confused with the first naming of the present Q team (now Wildcats) also called Alpines for that first season in 95-96.

  54. npanciroli says:

    leadfarmer,

    We will see how long the Devils can run that CF‰ to victory.

  55. npanciroli says:

    Bruce McCurdy,

    Lucic has the same amount of EV pts as Hall if I’m not mistaken.

  56. leadfarmer says:

    npanciroli:
    leadfarmer,

    We will see how long the Devils can run that CF‰ to victory.

    Fast teams and teams with great goalies can significantly outplay their Corsi.

  57. Lowetide says:

    Bruce: Agree. For me, 5×5/60 is God’s flashlight for forwards, Lucic is 2.48/60. That ranks him No. 42 league-wide among forwards who have played 15+games. Again, there are other elements but that’s first-line production.

    Russell has a Fenwick 5×5 of 51.19/60, that ranks him No. 65 among defenders in the category (who have played 15+ games). Again, not the be all and end all, offense (as an example) has to be factored in. Of course, Russell’s offense is also solid this year.

  58. OriginalPouzar says:

    StixMalone: Yes teams below us passed on him? My question is how many waiver claims can a team pickup. Say you’re at the bottom of the standings all year. You make a claim and get player. Another player comes up. If you move up in the standings teams below get first opportunity? If another guy comes up you want what happens? I know I’m reaching but I’m unclear about the waiver wire priority rules….

    Every time a player is put on waivers – the claim order is determined by the standings on that day, via point percentage (prior to that evening’s games I believe) – the 31st place team gets 1st choice, the 30th place team gets 2nd choice and so on.

    To my knowledge, there is no limit on waiver claims/pick-ups a team can make – of course, there is the 50 pro contract limit and the Oilers are currently at 49 (with, I believe, 4 slide rules – Yamamoto, Benson, Samorukov, Wells).

  59. Cassandra says:

    leadfarmer: This is just silly.Wheeler spent 3 years in college and took him a few years of pro time to get on track.So saying he’s ahead of him at 19 is meaningless.We could also say he’s way ahead of Martin St. Louis and Zetterberg at 19 too.

    Wheeler scored 21 goals in his rookie season. The story that Wheeler took time to get on track in the NHL is disinformation spread by Chiarelli apologists to obfuscate yet another horrific trade by Chiarelli.

    His record on trades is unbelievably bad. No fair minded person can think otherwise.

  60. Pouzar says:

    Jethro Tull: #tinysamplesize
    #prospectsdontdevelopinstraightlines
    #wellbeluckyifjpishalftheplayerwheeleris
    #20/20hindsight

    Thx for that. #missesthepointentirely

  61. StixMalone says:

    npanciroli:
    Bruce McCurdy,

    Lucic has the same amount of EV pts as Hall if I’m not mistaken.

    I loved getting Looch on our team. I belittle him too often for his sometimes ridiculous giveaways and plays dying on his stick. I’m not even upset over the $ figure just the length of the unmovable contract. Brush up on a few passing skills and he will be in my good books. The clouded eye test sometimes tend to focus on the wrong things and magnify them a lot . Glad that McDavid has a speedy winger now. Hope he is what Kurrie was to Gretzky…

  62. StixMalone says:

    Woodguy v2.0,

    OriginalPouzar,

    Thanks for the clarification!

  63. Bank Shot says:

    Jethro Tull:
    OriginalPouzar,

    Something ‘clicked’ with Khaira. Now consistency is his goal. Not expecting 7pts in 8gms pace but definitely play that helps not hinders the team.

    Move over Souray. The Big Sikhsy has arrived.

  64. OriginalPouzar says:

    Both Davidson and Walker on the ice for practice – Davidson is leading the stretch.

    No surprise here but I am very intrigued to see where both slot in to the lines and pairings.

    Davidson is probably with Benning but I have no idea what they do with Walker – he probably subs in on the 4th line I would think?

  65. Jaxon says:

    Bruce McCurdy: How do you land a hit while standing still and watching the play?

    And while you didn’t say it, others have that Russell has to block shots because he’s out of position all the time, which I guess jives if one’s definition of “out of position” = “happens to be right in the shooting lane”.

    Biggest issue that many have with these two guys is their contracts, and that’s certainly a reasonable objection. But sometimes I wonder if that concern overrides anything and everything they might be doing on the ice, some of it which actually helps the team even as it doesn’t fit the narrative.

    Looking at EDM’s scoring leaders this morning, I see Lucic tied for second with 19 points, Russell tied for sixth (and leading the defence corps) with 12. But the narrative remains that the play dies with Lucic and that Russell can’t make a pass in transition to save his soul. For sure there are plenty of examples of those things happening, but the counter-examples seem to be ignored when they aren’t actively hand-waved away.

    That doesn’t mean he stands still all the time. If you stand still and watch the play or cough up the puck, both lead to you having to chase the play and hit the opponent (who has to have the puck otherwise it’s an interference penalty). He stands still a lot and lacks urgency. I don’t think anyone can focus on Lucic and not come to that observation honestly.

    You know who else is right in the shooting lane? The goalie. You know why he’s right in the shooting lane? Because he backs up with too big a gap and lets the opposition across the blue line with plenty of space to take a hard shot, which he often blocks, but doesn’t necessarily control. He does get right in the shooting lane, but is that the best option? I don’t think it is. I think other players that are able to stand the opponent up in the neutral zone or at the blue line are doing a better job at being in position. I think it probably also makes it harder for his D partners to help out when defending as it is hard to crossover and switch D sides when your partner is so far back just waiting to block a shot. Plus, once he blocks that shot he is often lying on the ice and scrambling right after it. It doesn’t lead to a controlled D environment.

    Are you not hand waving as well, if you ignore their poor possession numbers and eye test of standing still, coughing up pucks with blind passes off the boards and other brain farts (Lucic) and lack of successful headman passing and gap control (Russell). Lucic, while stinking things up possession-wise and with observably terrible plays, with way more giveaways than takeaways (with -16, which is the 6th worst forward in the NHL), and an observable lack of urgency, still gets gifted top 6 minutes with the best linemates which I feel is largely the reason he has 19 points. Imagine a player who doesn’t cough up the puck and doesn’t stand still so much playing with McDavid or Draisaitl. Maybe both McDavid, Draisaitl and that player would have more points.

    I think Russell sacrificing his body for blocks skews people’s view of him as it seems like one of the most unselfish plays in hockey and should, therefore, be defended. But I think he plays his position in such a way that he has to block shots and I don’t think blocking shots is ever the best solution, but rather should be a last resort. Plus, there have been numerous times this season where he has simply been embarrassed by the opposition by going down and having them skate or pass around him as he slides on the ice. Going down to block a shot, to me, is a sign that you have done something wrong to get to that point. I don’t think it’s the virtue some make it out to be.

    Russell sits at a -3 in Shot Attempts while he’s on at 5-on-5. Nurse is at +153. That’s mind-boggling in contrast. Lucic’s shot attempts: +3. McDavid’s: 106. Draisaitl’s: 101. I think that may indicate that they owe some of their point totals to blind luck. They certainly aren’t pushing the puck in the right direction for points and compare poorly to teammates and linemates.

  66. Pouzar says:

    Cassandra: Wheeler scored 21 goals in his rookie season.

    Can’t wait to see what a 22 yr old JP can do with the .

  67. OriginalPouzar says:

    McDavid not on the ice today – under the weather.

    Good think we don’t play until Wed.

  68. Pouzar says:

    OriginalPouzar:
    Both Davidson and Walker on the ice for practice – Davidson is leading the stretch.

    No surprise here but I am very intrigued to see where both slot in to the lines and pairings.

    Davidson is probably with Benning but I have no idea what they do with Walker – he probably subs in on the 4th line I would think?

    Interested to see if Davy’s skating is still ok. Wonder if he draws in on Wed?

  69. texmex says:

    OriginalPouzar,

    Is this the longest bout with the flu ever?

  70. Pouzar says:

    texmex: Mono?

    That would be the way wouldn’t it?

  71. russ99 says:

    Chia’s plan on defense was pretty sound:

    1. Klefbom and Larsson long term
    2. Sekera and Russell for 2 more years until Benning and Nurse are ready to take their roles
    3. Benning and Nurse getting lower pressure sorties until #2
    4. Bear and Jones jumping into #3 when Benning and Nurse jump to #2

    The only missteps was settling for a cheap Gryba when better rounded physical defenders were available for a little more, and of course thinking there’d be little drop-off with just AHL cover while Sekera was injured.

    But worst case Sekera was injured half a season, so I can see why he didn’t want to blow up the whole plan for a multi-year deal for players that were available.

  72. leadfarmer says:

    Cassandra: Wheeler scored 21 goals in his rookie season.The story that Wheeler took time to get on track in the NHL is disinformation spread by Chiarelli apologists to obfuscate yet another horrific trade by Chiarelli.

    His record on trades is unbelievably bad.No fair minded person can think otherwise.

    No. This is you trying to force pieces into the puzzle. There is plenty of bad Chia trades that you don’t need to misrepresent any. The season you speak of was his post draft season 5!!! He didn’t top that goal mark until season 11!! Blake Wheeler is a very strange case. Even last year he was identified on this blog as a spare part!!

  73. Jethro Tull says:

    Pouzar: Thx for that. #missesthepointentirely

    Really? You said “Wheeler is a beast now”, “looking at you, Chia”, and didn’t Chia draft Wheeler then trade him?

    Then you quoted Bob’s tweet likening JP to Wheeler.

    To me, that reads that after a few good games, JP is going to be better than Wheeler.

    It takes two to form effective communication in any format. The message has to be coherent to be understood.

    But no, yeah, JP’s going to be the next Glenn Anderson. Or JF Jaques. Which is more likely? I’ll be tickled pink if he can play 2-3 line minutes competently.

  74. dustrock says:

    Bruce McCurdy: How do you land a hit while standing still and watching the play?

    And while you didn’t say it, others have that Russell has to block shots because he’s out of position all the time, which I guess jives if one’s definition of “out of position” = “happens to be right in the shooting lane”.

    Biggest issue that many have with these two guys is their contracts, and that’s certainly a reasonable objection. But sometimes I wonder if that concern overrides anything and everything they might be doing on the ice, some of it which actually helps the team even as it doesn’t fit the narrative.

    Looking at EDM’s scoring leaders this morning, I see Lucic tied for second with 19 points, Russell tied for sixth (and leading the defence corps) with 12. But the narrative remains that the play dies with Lucic and that Russell can’t make a pass in transition to save his soul. For sure there are plenty of examples of those things happening, but the counter-examples seem to be ignored when they aren’t actively hand-waved away.

    Lucic the last 10 games or so has been much, much better.

    Wasn’t happy with him last season and the way he started this season, I honestly thought he had fallen off a cliff.

  75. flea says:

    v4ance,

    Quinn has always struggled with this, it’s why he’s never graduated from the regional broadcasts to national. He’s actually a pretty good play by play guy, gets genuinely excited and he really enjoys the sport. His OVERTIME WINNER calls are really good. But he does have a tendency to stumble over words and mix up players.

    My theory – Kevin Quinn likes ganja, or used to use it a lot. I he gets a chance to call out “4:20 remaining in X period!” he does it every time. It affects his memory and makes him mess up.

    We could have it worse than Quinn for our regional broadcasts. I’d just like to see DeBrusk come in for color instead of Remenda.

  76. OriginalPouzar says:

    As of now, it looks like Davidson may not be slotted in to play on Wed – lots of time before the game though:

    Today’s pairings:

    Nurse-Russell
    Klefbom-Benning
    Auvitu-Gryba
    Sekera-Davidson

  77. OriginalPouzar says:

    His record on trades is unbelievably bad.No fair minded person can think otherwise.

    I won’t disagree on the analysis of the Wheeler trade, however, with respect, as a poster that has expressed, in no uncertain terms, that you will never give Chiarelli credit for any team success no matter what, I don’t believe that you can be considered a “fair-minded person” in any discussion related to Peter Chiarelli.

  78. Woodguy v2.0 says:

    Bank Shot: Move over Souray. The Big Sikhsy has arrived.

    Well done

  79. Cassandra says:

    OriginalPouzar: I won’t disagree on the analysis of the Wheeler trade, however, with respect, as a poster that has expressed, in no uncertain terms, that you will never give Chiarelli credit for any team success no matter what, I don’t believe that you can be considered a “fair-minded person” in any discussion related to Peter Chiarelli.

    You are confusing cause and effect. I dislike Chiarelli because I am fair minded.

    Part of being fair minded is making judgements independent of consequences, or, as it relates to this topic, results. You cannot be fair minded if your judgement is driven by contingent events. This is fundamental.

  80. Side says:

    Cassandra: You are confusing cause and effect.I dislike Chiarelli because I am fair minded.

    Part of being fair minded is making judgements independent of consequences, or, as it relates to this topic, results.You cannot be fair minded if your judgement is driven by contingent events.This is fundamental.

    No, you are not:

    “It’s the dreaded 1 for 3 deal without the 3
    I hate being right. I’ve disliked Chiarelli since the beginning and he’s only gotten worse.
    I make this vow. I will poison this board with hatred for Chiarelli for as long as he lives. I don’t care if the Oilers make the playoffs. It they do, they would have made it anyway. It they don’t, it is his fault.
    I don’t even care if they win the Stanley Cup. If they do, it is in spite of this move.
    Anyone who defends Chiarelli from here until the end of time will be trolled mercilessly. Begone traitors. Your attitude has aided and abetted the ruination.”

    You’re a troll, plain and simple and you admit to being one. No one cares about your opinions of Peter.

    Fair minded…. LOL

  81. Pouzar says:

    Jethro Tull: Really? You said “Wheeler is a beast now”, “looking at you, Chia”, and didn’t Chia draft Wheeler then trade him?

    Then you quoted Bob’s tweet likening JP to Wheeler.

    To me, that reads that after a few good games, JP is going to be better than Wheeler.

    It takes two to form effective communication in any format. The message has to be coherent to be understood.

    But no, yeah, JP’s going to be the next Glenn Anderson. Or JF Jaques. Which is more likely? I’ll be tickled pink if he can play 2-3 line minutes competently.

    Chia did not draft Wheeler. Wheeler was drafted by PHX. Vowed he would never play for them and took Schultz route and Chia signed him as a free agent.

    My take on the Stauffer tweet is that he is comparing 2 big Right Wingers drafted 4th and 5th overall.
    He is correct that at age 19 JP is ahead of Wheeler’s development. Duh. He is playing in the NHL while Wheeler was playing college.

    My “beast” comment was not that I think JP will be Wheeler or anything close…heck I don’t even believe Stauffer would infer that. My point is that we need to be careful not to give up on these kids too early.

    The “looking at you Chia” was in reference to him trading top end talent before they realize their potential. Top end talent doesn’t grow on trees and when you have it you’d better see it through. In Wheelers’ case what was the reason Chia traded him? And for what? Peverley? Chia has a track record here.

    I am a big proponent on taking time with 18 year old kids. I would love to see the draft moved to 19.
    For me, I woulda sent JP to Finland for 1 maybe 2 years. <– That was for Chachi

  82. who says:

    Jaxon: That doesn’t mean he stands still all the time. If you stand still and watch the play or cough up the puck, both lead to you having to chase the play and hit the opponent (who has to have the puck otherwise it’s an interference penalty). He stands still a lot and lacks urgency. I don’t think anyone can focus on Lucic and not come to that observation honestly.

    You know who else is right in the shooting lane? The goalie. You know why he’s right in the shooting lane? Because he backs up with too big a gap and lets the opposition across the blue line with plenty of space to take a hard shot, which he often blocks, but doesn’t necessarily control. He does get right in the shooting lane, but is that the best option? I don’t think it is. I think other players that are able to stand the opponent up in the neutral zone or at the blue line are doing a better job at being in position. I think it probably also makes it harder for his D partners to help out when defending as it is hard to crossover and switch D sides when your partner is so far back just waiting to block a shot. Plus, once he blocks that shot he is often lying on the ice and scrambling right after it. It doesn’t lead to a controlled D environment.

    Are you not hand waving as well, if you ignore their poor possession numbers and eye test of standing still, coughing up pucks with blind passes off the boards and other brain farts (Lucic) and lack of successful headman passing and gap control (Russell). Lucic, while stinking things up possession-wise and with observably terrible plays, with way more giveaways than takeaways (with -16, which is the 6th worst forward in the NHL), and an observable lack of urgency, still gets gifted top 6 minutes with the best linemates which I feel is largely the reason he has 19 points. Imagine a player who doesn’t cough up the puck and doesn’t stand still so much playing with McDavid or Draisaitl. Maybe both McDavid, Draisaitl and that player would have more points.

    I think Russell sacrificing his body for blocks skews people’s view of him as it seems like one of the most unselfish plays in hockey and should, therefore, be defended. But I think he plays his position in such a way that he has to block shots and I don’t think blocking shots is ever the best solution, but rather should be a last resort. Plus, there have been numerous times this season where he has simply been embarrassed by the opposition by going down and having them skate or pass around him as he slides on the ice. Going down to block a shot, to me, is a sign that you have done something wrong to get to that point. I don’t think it’s the virtue some make it out to be.

    Russell sits at a -3 in Shot Attempts while he’s on at 5-on-5. Nurse is at +153. That’s mind-boggling in contrast. Lucic’s shot attempts: +3. McDavid’s: 106. Draisaitl’s: 101. I think that may indicate that they owe some of their point totals to blind luck. They certainly aren’t pushing the puck in the right direction for points and compare poorly to teammates and linemates.

    I find your take on these two players interesting. My evaluations are purely visual. I know that makes me a neanderthal around here but sometimes it’s good to have an opinion that’s not influenced by numbers.
    When I look at Lucic I see a lot of the same flaws in his game that you point out.
    And yet when I watch Russell I don’t have the same concerns. The only time I worry about Russell is when he gets matched up 1 on 1 down low with a big forward. He struggles to contain his man in that situation. I find everything else he does has a very calming effect on me when I watch the games and I think he slows the game down for his d partner. He can play on my team any day.

  83. Woogie63 says:

    Don’t see Russell dropping from top paring to 7D to get Davidson into the line-up. Davidson represents a reasonable upgrade bet on our 7D until Christmas 2018.

    I like the arrows for JJ, Jesse but they have played 5-7 good games, before we more a talented RW, I would like to see an 80 game period … it is tough to find big, fast, shooting RW. For me I am not sure who will have the best career between,

    91, 58, 16, 56, 98 are all equal at this point in time and I not giving anything up until I better understand who the best player will be, the drop off for the replacement is too big.

  84. Material pocession says:

    Pouzar:

    My “beast” comment was not that I think JP will be Wheeler or anything close…heck I don’t even believe Stauffer would infer that. My point is that we need to be careful not to give up on these kids too early.

    Remember last year when many posters were suggesting trading Nurse because of his ‘limited ceiling, lack of offense, poor hockey IQ’? Even a very ‘fair minded’ poster was clamouring for this. Same thing is happening for JP this year. Same thing will happen for Yamamoto next year.

  85. Pouzar says:

    Material pocession: Remember last year when many posters were suggesting trading Nurse because of his ‘limited ceiling, lack of offense, poor hockey IQ’?Even a very ‘fair minded’ poster was clamouring for this.Same thing is happening for JP this year.Same thing will happen for Yamamoto next year.

    Yeah we don’t draft and develop here…it’s draft, tie cinder block to ankle, and throw into deep end.
    Nurse is a strong swimmer.

  86. Material pocession says:

    Jaxon:

    Are you not hand waving as well, if you ignore their poor possession numbers and eye test of standing still, coughing up pucks with blind passes off the boards and other brain farts (Lucic) and lack of successful headman passing and gap control (Russell). Lucic, while stinking things up possession-wise and with observably terrible plays, with way more giveaways than takeaways (with -16, which is the 6th worst forward in the NHL), and an observable lack of urgency, still gets gifted top 6 minutes with the best linemates which I feel is largely the reason he has 19 points. Imagine a player who doesn’t cough up the puck and doesn’t stand still so much playing with McDavid or Draisaitl. Maybe both McDavid, Draisaitl and that player would have more points.

    Or maybe McDavid, Draisaitl and that player would have less points. How would you know other than an expert guess? Maybe they should continue to play the guy who has a long, consistent track record of producing top 6 offense 5v5 rather than fans who rely exclusively on the eye test and confirmation bias.

  87. OriginalPouzar says:

    No surprise by Safin has been invited to the Czech WJHC camp – can’t imagine him not being on the team and a material player.

  88. Pouzar says:

    Speaking of Russell….an older article but a good one…

    https://www.thescore.com/news/1170444

    “John Tortorella has reinvented the wheel.

    The outspoken coach of the Columbus Blue Jackets has refined his approach, and the early returns certainly look promising.

    With his club holding down a 12-5-4 record, including a franchise-best mark through November – in which the Blue Jackets posted 21 points – Columbus currently sits in prime playoff position.

    The reason for its success? The brain trust in Columbus, led by Tortorella, GM Jarmo Kekalainen, and president of hockey operations John Davidson, sees speed and possession as the future of hockey.

    It’s the name of today’s game.”

    EDIT: “We’re trying to get that D-to-D play out of our game completely…”

  89. Material pocession says:

    Lowetide:
    Bruce: Agree. For me, 5×5/60 is God’s flashlight for forwards, Lucic is 2.48/60. That ranks him No. 42 league-wide among forwards who have played 15+games. Again, there are other elements but that’s first-line production.

    Russell has a Fenwick 5×5 of 51.19/60, that ranks him No. 65 among defenders in the category (who have played 15+ games). Again, not the be all and end all, offense (as an example) has to be factored in. Of course, Russell’s offense is also solid this year.

    Goddamn it LT! Stop letting facts get in the way of a narrative. 2.48points/60 5v5 is obviously zoomed by McDavid, and I don’t care that they’ve only played a few minutes together this year.

  90. Kinger_Oil.redux says:

    Side,

    – We go around and around this often: there are basically two way of evaluating Chia’s trades:

    Camp 1) At the day of the trade there is for sure an “equity” valuation for each player, on each side, and the winner/loser is determined at the moment of the trade, always. (if anyone says this is not a camp, I can trot out the positions pieces from various on that)

    Camp 2) The valuation for a trade depends on the outcome, and that takes time. While we can have our own ideas about the “equity value” of individual players, it’s the results over time that define the trade

    The Griff trade is an excellent example:

    Camp 1): what a brutal trade, Griff is garbage, the value of those two trade picks is way higher than what Griff will ever be, he’s a bum

    Camp 2): If Griff cracks the line-up, and is a regular this season, then your trading two magic beans for a starter this year with upside, makes sense, we need D now, not collect magic beans

    – Now it turned out that Griff was indeed a bum, and he wasn’t a NHL D, and the trade was brutal

    – Had Griff been good enough and was now an emerging D regular (somewhere between Nurse and Benning today), then Camp 2 would have concluded: “this was a good trade”

    – So the Camp 1 people can all claim: ” see told you it was brutal, I knew Griff was a bum, right away”

    – The Camp 2 people say: “that ended up being a bad trade”

  91. Material pocession says:

    Bruce McCurdy: How do you land a hit while standing still and watching the play?

    And while you didn’t say it, others have that Russell has to block shots because he’s out of position all the time, which I guess jives if one’s definition of “out of position” = “happens to be right in the shooting lane”.

    Biggest issue that many have with these two guys is their contracts, and that’s certainly a reasonable objection. But sometimes I wonder if that concern overrides anything and everything they might be doing on the ice, some of it which actually helps the team even as it doesn’t fit the narrative.

    Looking at EDM’s scoring leaders this morning, I see Lucic tied for second with 19 points, Russell tied for sixth (and leading the defence corps) with 12. But the narrative remains that the play dies with Lucic and that Russell can’t make a pass in transition to save his soul. For sure there are plenty of examples of those things happening, but the counter-examples seem to be ignored when they aren’t actively hand-waved away.

    As there are plenty of examples of all the other forwards giving the puck away, making a soft play, not going to the net, missing a pass, etc. Some folks love to make it sound like these issues are exclusive to Lucic and Russell but that is far from the truth.

  92. OriginalPouzar says:

    Shane Starret named ECHL rookie of the month!

    I’m looking forward to him getting a start for the Condors now that he’s the back-up with Ellis on recall.

  93. Side says:

    Kinger_Oil.redux:
    Side,

    – We go around and around this often: there are basically two way of evaluating Chia’s trades:

    Camp 1) At the day of the trade there is for sure an “equity” valuation for each player, on each side, and the winner/loser is determined at the moment of the trade, always.(if anyone says this is not a camp, I can trot out the positions pieces from various on that)

    Camp 2) The valuation for a trade depends on the outcome, and that takes time.While we can have our own ideas about the “equity value” of individual players, it’s the results over time that define the trade

    The Griff trade is an excellent example:

    Camp 1): what a brutal trade, Griff is garbage, the value of those two trade picks is way higher than what Griff will ever be, he’s a bum

    Camp 2): If Griff cracks the line-up, and is a regular this season, then your trading two magic beans for a starter this year with upside, makes sense, we need D now, not collect magic beans

    – Now it turned out that Griff was indeed a bum, and he wasn’t a NHL D, and the trade was brutal

    – Had Griff been good enough and was now an emerging D regular (somewhere between Nurse and Benning today), then Camp 2 would have concluded: “this was a good trade”

    – So the Camp 1 people can all claim: ” see told you it was brutal, I knew Griff was a bum, right away”

    – The Camp 2 people say: “that ended up being a bad trade”

    I’m fine with Camp 1 and Camp 2.

    My problem is with Camp 3. The Troll Camp, which offers no new insights to the discussion but demands people listen to them. If they don’t, then they are insulted.

    I think we know who the Camp Counselor is of Camp 3. The one trying to convince everyone that they are “fair minded” after telling everyone they will troll for “as long as Peter lives”.

  94. jtblack says:

    Bruce McCurdy,

    “as it doesn’t fit the narrative.” – Good Points

    Narrative: RNH is playing great and his offense has returned. Lucic sucks.
    FACT: Both tied with 19 Points

    Some players will never be able to live up to their contracts; no matter what they do.

    Lucic had a good year last year and the Narrative was that “He got Lucky with all his PP production. Terrible at 5×5”.

    Now hes having a great 5×5 season (Gods Flashlight as LT says); but “too many plays die on his stick”

    Short of Lucic getting 30 Goals and 70 points some will never be Happy. Hes producing right near his career avg. This is WHO he is. So why do we change our expectations and hope he will be something else?

    Same as those that still HOPE RNH becomes a 75 pt player. He wont. ever. 55 is a Good RNH year 40 a bad yr. That is who he is.

  95. OmJo says:

    Writing my research paper for my Political Science class and one of the papers I’m reading is written by Peter Hall and Rosemary Taylor.

    I kid you not, on the top left corner of every page is written “Hall, Taylor: The Three New Institutionalisms”

    It’s things like this that make it so hard to move on 😭😭😭

  96. jtblack says:

    When I think of Cassandra; I think of this:

    ***************
    fair-mind·ed :; adjective

    impartial in judgment; just.

    synonyms:fair, just, even-handed, equitable, impartial, nonpartisan, unbiased, unprejudiced

    *********************

  97. HT Joe says:

    Kinger_Oil.redux:
    Side,

    – We go around and around this often: there are basically two way of evaluating Chia’s trades:

    – So the Camp 1 people can all claim: ” see told you it was brutal, I knew Griff was a bum, right away”
    – The Camp 2 people say: “that ended up being a bad trade”

    Excellent… everyone is in agreement that we hate Chia’s trades 🙂

  98. jtblack says:

    Side,

    “Had Griff been good enough and was now an emerging D regular (somewhere between Nurse and Benning today), then Camp 2 would have concluded: “this was a good trade””

    Said NO Camp ever. Overpay from Day 1. Trading what was essentially 2 first rounders for a floundering prospect was not a Good Idea. There is always the 3% chance the Prospect turns into a 1,2,3 D man: but it doesnt mean it was a good idea. It was a low % bet, and the odds won out

  99. Thinker says:

    Would it be wise to sign JP long term on July 1?

  100. sliderule says:

    OriginalPouzar:
    McDavid not on the ice today – under the weather.

    Good think we don’t play until Wed.

    Mcdavids symptoms are sounding more and more like mono.

    Have the oilers had him tested for it?

  101. Side says:

    jtblack:
    Side,

    “Had Griff been good enough and was now an emerging D regular (somewhere between Nurse and Benning today), then Camp 2 would have concluded: “this was a good trade””

    Said NO Camp ever.Overpay from Day 1.Trading what was essentially 2 first rounders for a floundering prospect was not a Good Idea.There is always the 3% chance the Prospect turns into a 1,2,3 D man: but it doesnt mean it was a good idea.It was a low % bet, and the odds won out

    Help! I’m being framed!

  102. LMHF#1 says:

    sliderule: Mcdavids symptoms are sounding more and more like mono.

    Have the oilers had him tested for it?

    Based on what?

    He’s been sick, lost a bunch of weight and played through. I’m sure the man’s exhausted. Giving him a morning off to sleep and eat is a good choice – rather than suggesting that he has mono.

  103. OmJo says:

    jtblack,

    My issue with Lucic is the contract. We’re going to be forced to trade another piece this summer due to his contract. Probably Nuge. Unless the cap goes up significantly.

    He can play not so well for most of the game and then get a goal or an assist. You can produce points and still have the play die on your stick. That’s what I notice from Lucic during most games I watch – which admittedly isn’t that much this season.

    Granted I’m biased and can admit to being biased. Maybe he’s not as bad as I see him. Idk.

  104. OmJo says:

    Thinker:
    Would it be wise to sign JP long term on July 1?

    Yes, considering he won’t be getting a 6×6 contract. Or 8.5×8.

  105. Kinger_Oil.redux says:

    jtblack:
    Side,

    “Had Griff been good enough and was now an emerging D regular (somewhere between Nurse and Benning today), then Camp 2 would have concluded: “this was a good trade””

    Said NO Camp ever.Overpay from Day 1.Trading what was essentially 2 first rounders for a floundering prospect was not a Good Idea.There is always the 3% chance the Prospect turns into a 1,2,3 D man: but it doesnt mean it was a good idea.It was a low % bet, and the odds won out

    – Chia’s quotes were that Griff was ready for NHL now (that’s why he did the trade)

    – That was the trade: assign the value for those two draft picks, vs a starting D on a team that had maybe 2.

    – Some right away said Chia had no clue, that Griff was a bum. It turns out Griff was a bum.

    – Your floundering prospect: that’s your opinion (and you turned out to be right). Chia though, he didn’t think he was trading for a floundering prospect, he thought he was getting a NHL-ready D

    * so yes, Chia is a bum for that trade. Is he a bum for recognizing early in the camp and therfore getting Russel, and also signing Benning? He needed a lot of D, more of his moves worked out than not that season? Do those mitigate his terrible trade? Or is the Griff trade the only thing that matters?

  106. Thinker says:

    Material pocession: Remember last year when many posters were suggesting trading Nurse because of his ‘limited ceiling, lack of offense, poor hockey IQ’?Even a very ‘fair minded’ poster was clamouring for this.Same thing is happening for JP this year.Same thing will happen for Yamamoto next year.

    Trading yamamoto might be a little optimistic right now. Midgets who can’t score in junior aren’t in high demand.

  107. gregsaint says:

    “management can’t yet “give up on the season” and sell our UFAs”

    Even if they have given up on the season, the buyers won’t be around until closer to the trade deadline anyway.

  108. OriginalPouzar says:

    McLellan mentioned:

    1) Larsson more likely to play on the weekend than on Wed

    2) He hasn’t decided who will start in goal on Wed.

    I figured (1) was coming.

  109. Cassandra says:

    Kinger_Oil.redux,

    You have the two camps identified correctly. You just miss the point where only one of those is legitimate.

    Being fair minded means being able to see things for what they are.

  110. bendelson says:

    gregsaint:
    “management can’t yet “give up on the season” and sell our UFAs”

    Even if they have given up on the season, the buyers won’t be around until closer to the trade deadline anyway.

    With Maroon’s artificially low cap hit, I’m not sure that’s necessarily true…

  111. GMB3 says:

    sliderule: Mcdavids symptoms are sounding more and more like mono.

    Have the oilers had him tested for it?

    Do you seriously think that the Oilers would be negligent enough to not test him for mono if he was seriously ill?

  112. Material pocession says:

    Thinker: Trading yamamoto might be a little optimistic right now. Midgets who can’t score in junior aren’t in high demand.

    Even though his track record suggests otherwise…..as you were Oilers fan.

  113. Side says:

    Cassandra:
    Kinger_Oil.redux,

    You have the two camps identified correctly.You just miss the point where only one of those is legitimate.

    Being fair minded means being able to see things for what they are.

    LOL

  114. Kinger_Oil.redux says:

    Cassandra:
    Kinger_Oil.redux,

    You have the two camps identified correctly.You just miss the point where only one of those is legitimate.

    Being fair minded means being able to see things for what they are.

    – Thanks for reminding me of your position!

    – Yes you don’t believe managers, or anything in life is measured by results. Only by the virtue of a superior ethical mind, moral certitude, absolute devoid of bias, perfect information, and perfect ability to pronounce the value of things, frozen in time, and based on your assumptions and models.

    – Everything is won or lost at the moment of the decision, forever, not open to further debate, once you have made your pronouncement. The consequence and results of any decision does not matter

  115. Cassandra says:

    Side,

    Whatever. The only one throwing insults here is you. It is interesting that you think I am not fair, when I have been right time after time after time. How is such a thing possible?

    But I can play that game. Over the two + years of Chiarelli’s reign of terror the lengths that people have gone to twist themselves into knots to defend his moves has not simply been demonstrative of a casual inability to think, but has been compounded by a moral viciousness, in which everyone who has dared to mount a thought has been rigorously denounced.

    It has happened here time and time again. So much so that almost every single regular has left or forced to leave. So forgive me if I find these noxious attempts at balance to be intellectually dishonest. Not everything in life has two sides. Not all opinions are equal.

    The great benefit of the losing is that it has reintroduced intellectual discipline to the comment threads, fairmindedness is returning. Georges has stopped being a cheer leader and is asking interesting questions. And this comes to the root of the problem. Those who are cheering for the team are always going to be too hopeful or too critical, but they can never be fair.

  116. Thinker says:

    GMB3: Do you seriously think that the Oilers would be negligent enough to not test him for mono if he was seriously ill?

    I really want to say no, but…

  117. Thinker says:

    Material pocession: Even though his track record suggests otherwise…..as you were Oilers fan.

    Good luck selling that to a gm right now.

  118. Kinger_Oil.redux says:

    Cassandra:
    Side,

    Not all opinions are equal.

    The great benefit of the losing is that it has reintroduced intellectual discipline to the comment threads,

    – Great: why don’t you admit that Lucic is worth more than a 7th round pick, and you said that out of bad faith, and that it was nonesense, and that while you don’t like Chia, you know that comments like that are not “intellectual”

    – Your good_posts/60 is overshadowed by your moral_superiority_troll/60. But you do seem to be improving…

  119. Primetime says:

    GMB3: Do you seriously think that the Oilers would be negligent enough to not test him for mono if he was seriously ill?

    And if he has mono? Then what? There is no treatment. As long as his spleen is not enlarged, he has to decide if he can play through it or not based on how he feels, just like the flu and every other viral illness…

  120. Jethro Tull says:

    Cassandra:
    Kinger_Oil.redux,

    You have the two camps identified correctly.You just miss the point where only one of those is legitimate.

    Being fair minded means being able to see things for what they are.

    That would be ‘Perspicacious’ and it’s synonyms.

  121. Side says:

    Cassandra:
    Side,

    Whatever.The only one throwing insults here is you.It is interesting that you think I am not fair, when I have been right time after time after time.How is such a thing possible?

    But I can play that game.Over the two + years of Chiarelli’s reign of terror the lengths that people have gone to twist themselves into knots to defend his moves has not simply been demonstrative of a casual inability to think, but has been compounded by a moral viciousness, in which everyone who has dared to mount a thought has been rigorously denounced.

    It has happened here time and time again.So much so that almost every single regular has left or forced to leave.So forgive me if I find these noxious attempts at balance to be intellectually dishonest.Not everything in life has two sides.Not all opinions are equal.

    The great benefit of the losing is that it has reintroduced intellectual discipline to the comment threads, fairmindedness is returning.Georges has stopped being a cheer leader and is asking interesting questions.And this comes to the root of the problem.Those who are cheering for the team are always going to be too hopeful or too critical, but they can never be fair.

    What insults was I throwing around? I called you a troll. Which is what you described you would do:

    “f they do, it is in spite of this move.
    Anyone who defends Chiarelli from here until the end of time will be trolled mercilessly. ”

    Since, according to you, results don’t matter, you’re right! It’s hard to be wrong when you twist yourself into knots coming up with some abstract reality where you can’t be wrong.

    “It has happened here time and time again.So much so that almost every single regular has left or forced to leave.So forgive me if I find these noxious attempts at balance to be intellectually dishonest.Not everything in life has two sides.Not all opinions are equal.”

    You keep making this argument that all the regulars are being driven away, but do you have any proof that they left because of comments being made on this board?

    If regulars are leaving because of the comments, maybe it’s because of the reason that our very own LT commented about in one of his articles:

    “Here’s the message I was trying to convey. In my blog posts, and pretty much universally in the comments section, you will find (daily) thoughtful prose about the Oilers and their situation. If you post a thoughtful paragraph about the Eberle-for-Strome trade and cast it as a net negative, that moves the conversation forward. If you post “I will poison this board with hatred for Chiarelli for as long as he lives” it is not helpful. This blog is based on the bunch of us playing armchair general manager and that’s the fun of it. That’s the key. Intelligent exchanges, defending a position using logic, reason, math and prose. I apologize to those (and there were a number of you) who took it as anything other than what it was intended to be, and hope this prolonged passage sets things right.”

    It’s interesting who he quotes in this example… Hmm…

    I agree, interesting conversations are coming from the Oilers unsuccessful season so far. But, no matter where the conversation goes, we know your stance on the topic since you said you would “poison the board with hatred”.

    So again, is the root of the problem people who are “cheering for the team are always going to be too hopeful or too critical, but they can never be fair.”

    or is the problem posters who take the position of

    “I will poison this board with hatred for Chiarelli for as long as he lives”?

    I think we know the answer, here.

  122. Lowetide says:

    Fun thread, he lied. The McDavid has mono theory would be helped immeasurably if 97 wasn’t scoring at his current rate, but the news today he is still dealing with an illness is worrying. There is a nasty flu going around and it can linger. Good plan to get him extra days off here where he can be close to the iron lung he no doubt employs while dealing with his pleurisy.

  123. Jethro Tull says:

    Lowetide:
    Fun thread, he lied. The McDavid has mono theory would be helped immeasurably if 97 wasn’t scoring at his current rate, but the news today he is still dealing with an illness is worrying. There is a nasty flu going around and it can linger. Good plan to get him extra days off here where he can be close to the iron lung he no doubt employs while dealing with his pleurisy.

    I have a friend who works in the Bose shop in W.E.M and I know for a fact Connor has stereo.

  124. Jethro Tull says:

    I would still bank on Connor walking Calgary d men whilst still in the iron lung. (Though these days, they look more like carbon fibre exo-skeletons and are fully mobile.)

  125. Doug McLachlan says:

    Frank Seravalli at TSN has an article suggesting 5 options for the Oil to pursue in net:

    https://www.tsn.ca/tradecentre-five-options-for-oilers-in-net-1.933957

    Woodguy has suggested all the reasons the Oilers should NOT be looking at Tukka Rask, and I agree.

    A couple of options that I have not seen floated out there are Rask’s net-mate, Anton Khudobin who is in the last year of his deal, a very modest $1.2M salary and respectable 2.22 GAA and .932 sv%.

    Another option, though less attractive, is Andrew Hammond now of the Avalanche. His $1.35M contract was a demanded throw-in as part of the Duchene trade. His AHL numbers are ok and other than a short, PDO run a couple of years ago, he hasn’t demonstrated that he is an NHL goalie but we aren’t looking for Jacques Plante here, just someone to hold the fort for a couple of weeks. Acquisition cost wouldn’t be much.

  126. OriginalPouzar says:

    The flu is going through the team again.

    Connor has it.

    Stome has had it.

    Gryba had it in Calgary.

  127. leadfarmer says:

    Thinker: Trading yamamoto might be a little optimistic right now. Midgets who can’t score in junior aren’t in high demand.

    This. This is exactly why before the season started I said no matter how good Yamamoto plays in training camp you must immediately send him down so he can hit the ground running in junior otherwise this fan base will turn on him.

  128. Cassandra says:

    Kinger_Oil.redux: – Great: why don’t you admit that Lucic is worth more than a 7th round pick, and you said that out of bad faith, and that it was nonesense, and that while you don’t like Chia, you know that comments like that are not “intellectual”

    – Your good_posts/60 is overshadowed by your moral_superiority_troll/60.But you do seem to be improving…

    But why would I change my mind about Lucic when nothing has happened to change my mind.

    Lucic’ contract has negative value (i.e. you can get more value for less money on the UFA market) and hence is worth less than a 7th round pick. Now part of this is the nature of the UFA market. Many free agents have untradeable contracts the day after they are signed, so it certainly doesn’t apply to Lucic only. I think this is beyond serious dispute, and nothing has happened in his year and a half as an Oiler to dispute this. As a result the contract is, or should be, untradeable (but who knows with general managers. Vernon Wells was traded.) .

    Or to put it another way. Jordan Eberle was traded as a salary dump. A salary dump in part necessitated by Milan Lucic’s contract. Jordan Eberle is a much better hockey player than Milan Lucic?

    Which proposition there is made in bad faith? Not only are they not in bad faith, I think they are truths so obvious they should be uncontroversial.

    Why would I change my mind when events have confirmed my initial view?

    As to the accusations of trolling, last year the day of the first Leafs game I said that Nazem Kadri would be an excellent return in a trade for Adam Larsson. The response I received here was, “now you are just trolling.” People were incredulous at the notion that Kadri was a better hockey player than Larsson. Then Kadri went out and owned McDavid’s soul and won the game for the Leafs. Events proved me right, and yet I was “just trolling.”

    I wasn’t trolling then. I’m not trolling now. Being right is not trolling.

  129. Réal Goudenyéu says:

    Lowetide:
    Fun thread, he lied. The McDavid has mono theory would be helped immeasurably if 97 wasn’t scoring at his current rate, but the news today he is still dealing with an illness is worrying. There is a nasty flu going around and it can linger. Good plan to get him extra days off here where he can be close to the iron lung he no doubt employs while dealing with his pleurisy.

    I can say (I’m a health care professional) that we’ve seen that upper respiratory infections progressing to lower respiratory infections are a thing right now – and they are long lasting and extremely fatiguing.

  130. OmJo says:

    David Staples is a brave man: http://edmontonjournal.com/sports/hockey/nhl/cult-of-hockey/the-top-4-reasons-the-edmonton-oilers-have-crashed-this-year

    4. Major players, including Connor McDavid, trending down for even strength play

    Connor McDavid had 34 points after 27 games last year, 32 points this year, but he’s been in a major even strength slump ever since he came down with the flu. Compared to last year, his contributions to scoring chances are way down, especially in the last month, and his rate of mistakes on scoring chances against is way up.

    2pts from where he was while healthy last season. Just horrible.

    Also this…

    But he’s not the only one who has seen a drop off in two-way performance, at least if you go by scoring chances plus-minus, the rate at which a player makes some shot, pass or screen to contribute to a scoring chance as compared to the rate at which he makes some turnover, lost battle or missed assignment on a scoring chance against. By this count, Milan Lucic, Kris Russell, Klefbom, Nurse and Ryan Nugent-Hopkins are all doing considerably worse at even strength than they did last year. Nurse’s drop can be attributed to playing against far tougher competition this year, but everyone else simply hasn’t been at his best yet.

    What’s the range of scoring chances per game for first line Fs? I’m stepping into unfriendly territory here for myself (advanced stats) so not sure how bad 1.95 scoring chances for per game is.

    Not even sure what Plus Per 15 even means lol.

    Can you blame a player, or players, for losses if their contributions to scoring chances for vs against is +1 or more when they’re leasing the team in scoring on top of that? I’d say nope.

  131. SayItAin'tSo, Gretz, SayItAin'tSo! says:

    So every Monday I like to peruse the penalty stats, just to see where things are standing, mainly because I am convinced the Fix is somehow in (Note this is sort of a joke but not really).

    Quick fun facts:

    Going back to the beginning of November the Oilers have played 17 games.

    In those 17 games the Oilers drew 35 penalties while taking 53.

    Of the 35 drawn a grand total of 3 were of the now most commonly called slashing variety, they managed to take 9 slashing penalties in that time span.

    The Oilers continue to have drawn the least penalties in the league this year. They have a grand total of 70 odd man opportunities, league leader Chicago has drawn 112 (teams above 100 include Pittsburgh, Colorado and Nashville), and league average appears to be about 90ish.

    Now a common refrain is that the Oilers are too slow and that’s why they draw so few penalties. There may be some truth to that but teams in the bottom 3rd of the league in PPOs include: Columbus, New Jersey, Toronto and Anaheim. Those teams are many things but slow isn’t one of them.

    Alas the more likely scenario is that the Oilers had a month against teams that don’t take many penalties. The Oilers sit around middle of the league on Times Shorthanded sorties at 90. Teams below them in this category include: Buffalo, Arizona, Boston, St. Louis, Calgary, Rags, Toronto and Vegas all opponents since Nov. 1.

    For the upcoming month the Oilers schedule includes: Philly, Montreal, Nashville, Minnesota, Chicago and Winnipeg who’ve all taken more penalties than the Oilers.

    Prediction: The Oilers PP begins to come around in December and my guess is that they begin to draw more penalties now that they are healthy.

  132. Lowetide says:

    leadfarmer: This.This is exactly why before the season started I said no matter how good Yamamoto plays in training camp you must immediately send him down so he can hit the ground running in junior otherwise this fan base will turn on him.

    Relax. The fan base hasn’t turned on Yamamoto, Thinker has turned on Yamamoto. Thinker is fairly predictable in these things.

  133. bendelson says:

    sliderule: Mcdavids symptoms are sounding more and more like mono.

    Have the oilers had him tested for it?

    Sounds like Rouge’s malady…
    Just a guess.

  134. jtblack says:

    OmJo,

    “You can produce points and still have the play die on your stick. That’s what I notice from Lucic during most games ” ….

    I agree. I wish he would cycle it more. As soon as he looks to pass in the O zone I cringe. He has made a large number of direct passes to the other team. I just think that IS Milan. He does not have soft hands.

  135. Side says:

    In this thread, a self-proclaimed troll is confused over why people are calling him a troll.

    Fascinating.

  136. jtblack says:

    Kinger_Oil.redux,

    “therfore getting Russel, and also signing Benning?” –

    Cost of the 2 players above?

    Now do you see the difference.

    If a GM wants to roll the dice on a 1 yr contract for a vet, so be it. If he wants to roll the dice on signing a College FA, so be it.

    If he wants to unload 2 high draft picks in a deep draft; wait a minute!

  137. OmJo says:

    OriginalPouzar:
    The flu is going through the team again.

    Connor has it.

    Stome has had it.

    Gryba had it in Calgary.

    You can free flu shots in any Safeway in the city. Are NHL teams not allowed to get flu shots?

    I know there was some drama involving the Flames a few years ago. But is it really hard for a team worth hundreds of millions of dollars to pay for its players to get flu shots if they can’t get the free ones?

    Time to set up quarantines in the locker room I think.

  138. OmJo says:

    Lowetide: Relax. The fan base hasn’t turned on Yamamoto, Thinker has turned on Yamamoto. Thinker is fairly predictable in these things.

    Boo Yamamoto!

    *Starts a one-man anti-Yamamoto angry mob*

    Boo Yamamoto!

  139. OmJo says:

    jtblack:
    OmJo,

    “You can produce points and still have the play die on your stick. That’s what I notice from Lucic during most games ” ….

    I agree.I wish he would cycle it more. As soon as he looks to pass in the O zone I cringe.He has made a large number of direct passes to the other team. I just think that IS Milan. He does not have soft hands.

    Which is telling because passing was supposed to be his strength, IIRC.

    Last season he had terrible defensive coverage. The kind of coverage that gets a player run out of town here. This year he makes terrible decisions with the puck most of the time. The games passing him by, and I don’t blame him for this. He had his moment and was a dominant physical force in the league for a long time. He’s hanging on by a McDavid right now. If his contract expired at the end of this season I wouldn’t even be talking about Lucic. I doubt anybody would be, tbh.

  140. Side says:

    OmJo: You can free flu shots in any Safeway in the city. Are NHL teams not allowed to get flu shots?

    I know there was some drama involving the Flames a few years ago. But is it really hard for a team worth hundreds of millions of dollars to pay for its players to get flu shots if they can’t get the free ones?

    Time to set up quarantines in the locker room I think.

    Flu shots don’t make you immune to all types of flu viruses.

    Seasonal flu shots make you immune to particular flu strains that the medical community feel will be the most harmful during that particular season.

    It doesn’t matter how many flu shots or “emergen-c” people have, it won’t make them immune to all colds and flus.

    The Flames caused controversy years ago because they budded AHEAD of high risk people like seniors so they could get their H1N1 shot.

  141. Primetime says:

    OmJo: You can free flu shots in any Safeway in the city. Are NHL teams not allowed to get flu shots?

    I know there was some drama involving the Flames a few years ago. But is it really hard for a team worth hundreds of millions of dollars to pay for its players to get flu shots if they can’t get the free ones?

    Time to set up quarantines in the locker room I think.

    I believe this has been discussed before:

    – Of course they can get flu shots. In fact, Rexall reps were physically administering them for free in the arena a few games ago. Do you think Katz was giving them to the general public but skipping the players?

    – the Flu Shot does not protect against ALL strains of the flu, only the one they feel may be the most prevalent that flu season. There are hundreds of others that are passed around everyday. There are many good reasons to have a flu shot, but guaranteeing you won’t get sick is not one of them.

  142. Kinger_Oil.redux says:

    Cassandra:

    Lucic’ contract has negative value (i.e. you can get more value for less money on the UFA market) and hence is worth less than a 7th round pick.

    I wasn’t trolling then.I’m not trolling now.Being right is not trolling.

    – This is just silly Cassandra. This isn’t how it works. Lucic is not worth less than a 7th round pick

    – How can anyone take you seriously or not call you a troll when you say this?

    – Your just not right. Your model for evaluating worth is very very flawed. This is the real world

    – P.S. – I’ve got to away for the rest of thew week: bye!

  143. jtblack says:

    OmJo,

    “Last season he had terrible defensive coverage. The kind of coverage that gets a player run out of town here. This year he makes terrible decisions with the puck most of the time. The games passing him by, and I don’t blame him for this. He had his moment and was a dominant physical force in the league for a long time. He’s hanging on by a McDavid right now. If his contract expired at the end of this season I wouldn’t even be talking about Lucic. I doubt anybody would be, tbh.”

    A lot of truth there. I think we were saying the flip side of the coin is that he is 2nd in team scoring. …… with all his flaws he keeps producing at his established career level …

  144. Material pocession says:

    Thinker: Good luck selling that to a gm right now.

    I would have no reason to sell this to a GM right now because I wouldn’t be looking to trade Yamamoto. The Oilers are devoid of offensive prospects so trading him makes almost no sense. I wish the Oilers had more prospects who were ‘struggling’ to score at almost a point per game. When he finally catches fire, he’s going to go off in a big way (imo).

  145. OmJo says:

    SayItAin’tSo, Gretz, SayItAin’tSo!:
    So every Monday I like to peruse the penalty stats, just to see where things are standing, mainly because I am convinced the Fix is somehow in (Note this is sort of a joke but not really).

    Quick fun facts:

    Going back to the beginning of November the Oilers have played 17 games.

    In those 17 games the Oilers drew 35 penalties while taking 53.

    Of the 35 drawn a grand total of 3 were of the now most commonly called slashing variety, they managed to take 9 slashing penalties in that time span.

    The Oilers continue to have drawn the least penalties in the league this year. They have a grand total of 70 odd man opportunities, league leader Chicago has drawn 112 (teams above 100 include Pittsburgh, Colorado and Nashville), and league average appears to be about 90ish.

    Now a common refrain is that the Oilers are too slow and that’s why they draw so few penalties. There may be some truth to that but teams in the bottom 3rd of the league in PPOs include: Columbus, New Jersey, Toronto and Anaheim. Those teams are many things but slow isn’t one of them.

    Alas the more likely scenario is that the Oilers had a month against teams that don’t take many penalties. The Oilers sit around middle of the league on Times Shorthanded sorties at 90. Teams below them in this category include: Buffalo, Arizona, Boston, St. Louis, Calgary, Rags, Toronto and Vegas all opponents since Nov. 1.

    For the upcoming month the Oilers schedule includes: Philly, Montreal, Nashville, Minnesota, Chicago and Winnipeg who’ve all taken more penalties than the Oilers.

    Prediction: The Oilers PP begins to come around in December and my guess is that they begin to draw more penalties now that they are healthy.

    The refs sure aren’t helping. Like when a player lays two hits from behind on two Oilers players in the same shift and the first Oiler to get hit gets a penalty for retaliation after the second hit.

    Interesting though, is there any evidence for a correlation between team speed and penalties drawn? How do you turn speed into a number?

  146. Jaxon says:

    who: I find your take on these two players interesting. My evaluations are purely visual. I know that makes me a neanderthal around here but sometimes it’s good to have an opinion that’s not influenced by numbers.
    When I look at Lucic I see a lot of the same flaws in his game that you point out.
    And yet when I watch Russell I don’t have the same concerns. The only time I worry about Russell is when he gets matched up 1 on 1 down low with a big forward. He struggles to contain his man in that situation. I find everything else he does has a very calming effect on me when I watch the games and I think he slows the game down for his d partner. He can play on my team any day.

    That’s probably a very fair assessment of both players. I find his slowing down of the game (sometimes circling back with the puck) occasionally results in a missed opportunity to get the puck up to forwards who are already on the fly who then have to double back. I will give anyone the stance that Russell is one of the hardest working players. No denying that. He’s not difficult to watch the same way that Lucic is.

    If someone was to watch Lucic in isolation and then describe his game when the following things happened and say out loud “standing, standing…”, “bad pass”, “blind pass”, “brain fart”, “coasting, coasting”, “watching the play”, “couldn’t corral that pass, it bounced off his stick”, “didn’t cover his D”, floating in no man’s land in D zone”, or “making big, slow loop to turn around” you’d be hard-pressed to find much silence, I think. And that’s without considering that he’s not very fast even at top speed when he’s giving it his all. That makes him extremely frustrating to watch. And while his teammates may love him, I find it hard to believe that they don’t see the same thing.

  147. OmJo says:

    Side,

    Thanks for the reminder about the Flames, those douchebags.

    Primetime,

    Fair enough. Must have missed the discussion about it.

    So should we be worried then? The flus stuck around for practically a month. It’s like a plague from the hockey gods lol… so what options does the team have besides making the players drink more orange juice before bed? Just wait it out?

  148. classict says:

    Primetime:

    – Of course they can get flu shots.In fact, Rexall reps were physically administering them for free in the arena a few games ago.Do you think Katz was giving them to the general public but skipping the players?

    I doubt the coaches or team are able to decide for the players whether to get a flue shot or not.

    I’m sure they’ve made the flu shot available to all the players, but I think whether they decide to go actually get one is entirely up to them.

  149. SayItAin'tSo, Gretz, SayItAin'tSo! says:

    OmJo,

    Agree with the first paragraph but two things lead me to not cite that as a reason above.

    1) Eye-test (and as much as I would love to blame the Oilers struggles on the refs I can’t do it) but yes I do feel there have been some seriously suspect calls, just wanted to dump raw numbers out for this one.

    2) Illness – if your high end players are feeling down in the dumps health wise it almost surely impacts your penalties drawn.

    Second paragraph – that’s a great question and I’m not sure how you’d do it. Columbus last year was at least on this blog, the epitome of a fast skilled team. Yet they drew 211 penalties all season which was 66 behind league leader Philly. FWIW Columbus is 2nd last in penalties drawn this year.

    My completely 100% non-scientific answer is that PPO and TSH oppos are probably dependent on what the referee is feeling at any particular time. Unless you play for Columbus that is, in which case it appears that you a legitimate gripe against NHL referees (or maybe your head coach is John Tortorella….)

  150. OriginalPouzar says:

    Didn’t Yamamoto produce 99 points in 65 games in junior last year?

    Is this rendered irrelevant because he only has 9 points in 10 junior games this year?

  151. Primetime says:

    classict: I doubt thecoaches or team are able to decide for the players whether to get a flue shot or not.

    I’m sure they’ve made the flu shot available to all the players, but I think whether they decide to go actually get one is entirely up to them.

    Yes, of course it is a personal choice. What I meant is that they would have easy access to the flu shot, and would not have to pay extra for it. And again, regardless if they chose to have one or not, they would not be immune to still getting ill during the season

  152. Side says:

    classict: I doubt thecoaches or team are able to decide for the players whether to get a flue shot or not.

    I’m sure they’ve made the flu shot available to all the players, but I think whether they decide to go actually get one is entirely up to them.

    I imagine the doctors, coaching staff and management would strongly recommend and suggest that the players all get the flu shots. I would not be surprised if they even set up a flu shot station after practice or after some kind of team function on site.

    Everyone should get the flu shot.

    The only time a player shouldn’t get the flu shot is if they have an allergy to it.

  153. Melvis says:

    According to the CDC, flu shot efficacy rates somewhere between 40% and 60%. So no, they don’t work for all the people all the time.

    I’m a compulsive hand and face washer, and I’ve always got some sanitary wipes on me so I rarely get sick….until some clown sneezes on me when standing on line at the grocery store. This happened four and a half weeks ago, and I’m still far short of feeling 100%.

  154. Primetime says:

    Fair enough. Must have missed the discussion about it.

    So should we be worried then? The flus stuck around for practically a month. It’s like a plague from the hockey gods lol… so what options does the team have besides making the players drink more orange juice before bed? Just wait it out?

    Unfortunately yes, just wait it out. Lots of fluid, and as they appear to be doing, giving extra time to rest for those affected (McD). The added benefit of giving him rest days is to keep him away from the rest of team for infection control reasons. The ability to play through it for games would be the players decision and, I would imagine, the coaches decision as to how effective they actually are in terms of helping or harming the team. Unfortunately, in Connor’s case, he is so much better than everyone else, that even if he can drag his carcass onto the ice for a few shifts, he will likely be one of our 3 stars for the evening….

  155. GMB3 says:

    Side: Help! I’m being framed!

    Pretty accurate representation of the trade I think.

    There’s three camps of people. The complete anti-Chia camp, those who think he’s just made mistake after mistake and has ruined the future of this franchise (this is a pretty ridiculous camp to belong in)

    Then the middle camp are those people who believe Chia is somewhere around a mediocre GM, possibly a below average GM who seems to be repeating his mistakes from his Boston days. (This camp tends to be the more rationale, less troll-y, and probably the most accurate group to belong too)

    Then the pro Chia, who still defend the Reinhart trade and the logic behind it. (This group is just as ridiculously and trollish as the anti Chia camp. White knights)

    – Is Chiarelli a great GM? Looking at his track record in the NHL, I would say no. He’s also probably not the worst GM in the league. I just don’t understand how people can possibly attempt to rationalize the Reinhart trade. “Framing” that trade as a good bet is kind of sad. If you look back at what was known about the draft and GR at the day of the trade, it’s up there with Martin Erat for Filipino Forsberg, and probably worse because at least Washington got an NHLer for him.

  156. OriginalPouzar says:

    OmJo: You can free flu shots in any Safeway in the city. Are NHL teams not allowed to get flu shots?

    I know there was some drama involving the Flames a few years ago. But is it really hard for a team worth hundreds of millions of dollars to pay for its players to get flu shots if they can’t get the free ones?

    Time to set up quarantines in the locker room I think.

    I’m sure you know the flu shots are not 100% and only protect against certain strains and there are many strains out there.

  157. GMB3 says:

    OriginalPouzar:
    Didn’t Yamamoto produce 99 points in 65 games in junior last year?

    Is this rendered irrelevant because he only has 9 points in 10 junior games this year?

    But if you’ve got a fetish for heavy hockey, the blue collar hard on, this is the perfect time to jump and attack and help fulfill the weird fantasy narrative in their head

  158. Thinker says:

    Material pocession: I would have no reason to sell this to a GM right now because I wouldn’t be looking to trade Yamamoto.The Oilers are devoid of offensive prospects so trading him makes almost no sense.I wish the Oilers had more prospects who were ‘struggling’ to score at almost a point per game.When he finally catches fire, he’s going to go off in a big way (imo).

    Everybody and their dog scores a ppg in junior. If you can’t score that, you are looking at CIS at best. Unless your name is Ewanyk, or you are a fighter. If you are a pathetic physical specimen, you should be looking at near 2ppg in draft+1+2 years to make it, and even then…

    I don’t hate Yamamoto, and I though he wasn’t my draft choice, I had no strong feelings to anybody in that spot. Gun to my head, I would have taken Vesalainen but I was pretty laissez-faire about the draft last year for obvious reasons.

  159. Side says:

    Melvis:
    According to the CDC, flu shot efficacy rates somewhere between 40% and 60%. So no, they don’t work for all the people all the time.

    I’m a compulsive hand and face washer, and I’ve always got some sanitary wipes on me so I rarelyget sick….until some clown sneezes on me when standing on line at the grocery store. This happened four and a half weeks ago, and I’m still far short of feeling 100%.

    It’s not even just about the players getting sick though. Players come in contact with a lot of germs and herd immunity is a thing. Not receiving the flu shot could make that player a carrier and who do players come in contact a lot with? Fans. Fans that are pregnant, seniors, children or people with compromised immune systems. The flu can severely harm these types of people if they contract it.

  160. OmJo says:

    Melvis: I’m a compulsive hand and face washer, and I’ve always got some sanitary wipes on me so I rarely get sick….until some clown sneezes on me when standing on line at the grocery store. This happened four and a half weeks ago, and I’m still far short of feeling 100%.

    Yeah! I work as a cashier at a grocery store and it infuriates me when assholes don’t cover their mouthes when they sneeze or cough, or worse they do it in their hands and then hand me money a few minutes later, because it happens so damn often. I go through a bottle of hand sanitizer a week when I work just to try and protect myself now.

  161. Side says:

    GMB3: Pretty accurate representation of the trade I think.

    There’s three camps of people. The complete anti-Chia camp, those who think he’s just made mistake after mistake and has ruined the future of this franchise (this is a pretty ridiculous camp to belong in)

    Then the middle camp are those people who believe Chia is somewhere around a mediocre GM, possibly a below average GM who seems to be repeating his mistakes from his Boston days. (This camp tends to be the more rationale, less troll-y, and probably the most accurate group to belong too)

    Then the pro Chia, who still defend the Reinhart trade and the logic behind it. (This group is just as ridiculously and trollish as the anti Chia camp. White knights)

    – Is Chiarelli a great GM? Looking at his track record in the NHL, I would say no. He’s also probably not the worst GM in the league. I just don’t understand how people can possibly attempt to rationalize the Reinhart trade. “Framing” that trade as a good bet is kind of sad. If you look back at what was known about the draft and GR at the day of the trade, it’s up there with Martin Erat for Filipino Forsberg, and probably worse because at least Washington got an NHLer for him.

    I said I was being framed because I was quoted by someone who was responding to something that I didn’t say (I believe they quoted the wrong person).

    Hence my “being framed” comment.

  162. OmJo says:

    SayItAin’tSo, Gretz, SayItAin’tSo!,

    Yeah, not exclusively blaming refs so much for the amount if penalties we’ve taken, but more so for the lower number of drawn penalties. They miss a lot out there. But this is a league wide issue so that’s not a sufficient answer.

    Sticking with illness…

    I remember over the years hearing repeated ad nauseum that when you move your feet, you draw more penalities. When you don’t move your feet, you take more penalities. Well something like that.

    Safe to say sick players don’t move their feet as much as healthy players.

    So it could do with “foot movement” more so than speed. That’s even harder to quantify though lol… Unless you watch the game in slow motion and count how many strides each player takes. Strides/60 could be a thing.

  163. Thinker says:

    OmJo: Yeah! I work as a cashier at a grocery store and it infuriates me when assholes don’t cover their mouthes when they sneeze or cough, or worse they do it in their hands and then hand me money a few minutes later, because it happens so damn often. I go through a bottle of hand sanitizer a week when I work just to try and protect myself now.

    Ran a kids sports league for awhile. Will never touch another kid again.

    Edit: In a germ way…
    Edit Edit: Ok. That still sounds bad.

  164. Lowetide says:

    Side:
    In this thread, a self-proclaimed troll is confused over why people are calling him a troll.

    Fascinating.

    People, and I mean smart people, have studied this comments section. They never tell me their findings, but we have it surrounded. 🙂

  165. OmJo says:

    GMB3: Pretty accurate representation of the trade I think.

    There’s three camps of people. The complete anti-Chia camp, those who think he’s just made mistake after mistake and has ruined the future of this franchise (this is a pretty ridiculous camp to belong in)

    Then the middle camp are those people who believe Chia is somewhere around a mediocre GM, possibly a below average GM who seems to be repeating his mistakes from his Boston days. (This camp tends to be the more rationale, less troll-y, and probably the most accurate group to belong too)

    Then the pro Chia, who still defend the Reinhart trade and the logic behind it. (This group is just as ridiculously and trollish as the anti Chia camp. White knights)

    – Is Chiarelli a great GM? Looking at his track record in the NHL, I would say no. He’s also probably not the worst GM in the league. I just don’t understand how people can possibly attempt to rationalize the Reinhart trade. “Framing” that trade as a good bet is kind of sad. If you look back at what was known about the draft and GR at the day of the trade, it’s up there with Martin Erat for Filipino Forsberg, and probably worse because at least Washington got an NHLer for him.

    What about the fourth camp? The people who think Chiarelli is a mediocre GM who is ruining the future of the franchise with his mistakes?

    I think that’s a more realistic camp based on what we’ve seen this season. So far.

  166. OmJo says:

    Thinker: Ran a kids sports league for awhile. Will never touch another kid again.

    Edit: In a germ way…
    Edit Edit: Ok. That still sounds bad.

    Sadly from what I’ve witnessed kids cover their mouthes properly more often than the adults. Parents adopting the do as I say, not as I do methodology when raising them I suppose. Idk.

    Though a sports league is a hell of a lot worse than a grocery store in that regard so I’ll give you my sympathy lol.

    Btw I didn’t even notice it sounded bad until I read the edits 😛

  167. Scungilli Slushy says:

    I’m not sure Slepy has had enough of a run this year to get going. JP is on a different level than most of the young forwards. Same reason why Nurse is pulling ahead. It is to be expected, usually a top pick has more upside, not that others can’t step up, just far less common.

  168. Side says:

    OmJo: Sadly from what I’ve witnessed kids cover their mouthes properly more often than the adults. Parents adopting the do as I say, not as I do methodology when raising them I suppose. Idk.

    Though a sports league is a hell of a lot worse than a grocery store in that regard so I’ll give you my sympathy lol.

    Btw I didn’t even notice it sounded bad until I read the edits

    I still see adults going to the bathroom and not washing their hands afterwards.

    Madness!

  169. Side says:

    Lowetide: People, and I mean smart people, have studied this comments section. They never tell me their findings, but we have it surrounded.

    The findings are probably being shared and taught about in some university somewhere.

  170. fishman says:

    For info. There was a senior doctor from AHS on the news just last week who stated that this year the flu vaccine was not nearly as effective as previous years. The scientists who develop these vaccines take their best guess at what the bad flu virus’s will be next year and work accordingly. Getting a flu shot is always recommended but no guarantee’s as to their effectiveness and especially this year!!!!

    Get well Oilers (and especially 97!)

  171. Thinker says:

    OmJo: Sadly from what I’ve witnessed kids cover their mouthes properly more often than the adults. Parents adopting the do as I say, not as I do methodology when raising them I suppose. Idk.

    Though a sports league is a hell of a lot worse than a grocery store in that regard so I’ll give you my sympathy lol.

    Btw I didn’t even notice it sounded bad until I read the edits 😛

    But they will also just stick hands in pants or in mouth.

  172. JimmyV1965 says:

    Material pocession: Remember last year when many posters were suggesting trading Nurse because of his ‘limited ceiling, lack of offense, poor hockey IQ’?Even a very ‘fair minded’ poster was clamouring for this.Same thing is happening for JP this year.Same thing will happen for Yamamoto next year.

    I absolutely hate the way this team develops young talent, but they have never ever wavered on Nurse, even when many were calling him a bust. He has rewarded them with their patience by becoming a very well rounded dman. This kid will be a beast in two years and be an integral part of our next Stanley Cup run. Now get him on PP2 ahead of Benning.

  173. OriginalPouzar says:

    Team Canada will announce the 30 player camp roster on Wed at 11 mountain.

    I can’t imagine Benson or Wells not being included.

  174. Jethro Tull says:

    Melvis:
    According to the CDC, flu shot efficacy rates somewhere between 40% and 60%. So no, they don’t work for all the people all the time.

    I’m a compulsive hand and face washer, and I’ve always got some sanitary wipes on me so I rarelyget sick….until some clown sneezes on me when standing on line at the grocery store. This happened four and a half weeks ago, and I’m still far short of feeling 100%.

    This is because you are “too clean”, almost sterile, thus your autoimmune systems suffers. I will dig up the studies that double glazed windows and anti-bacterial cleaners have had on sickness in the last 50yrs. Fascinating read.

  175. CalVag says:

    Jethro Tull: This is because you are “too clean”, almost sterile, thus your autoimmune systems suffers. I will dig up the studies that double glazed windows and anti-bacterial cleaners have had on sickness in the last 50yrs. Fascinating read.

    Man that would be interesting. Would love to have a read!

  176. hunter1909 says:

    While perusing the first part of today’s wonderful comments, the following thought came into my head. I don’t know why, perhaps someone can help me on this.

    Pseudo-intellectual = A person who pretends to be of greater intelligence than he or she in fact is.

    Someone who pretends to be more intelligent than they are.

    A pseudo-intellectual doesn’t ask why? He only asks about things that signal he’s one of the smart set. In fact, he rarely asks. He tells.

  177. OriginalPouzar says:

    Thinker: Everybody and their dog scores a ppg in junior. If you can’t score that, you are looking at CIS at best. Unless your name is Ewanyk, or you are a fighter. If you are a pathetic physical specimen, you should be looking at near 2ppg in draft+1+2 years to make it, and even then…

    I don’t hate Yamamoto, and I though he wasn’t my draft choice, I had no strong feelings to anybody in that spot. Gun to my head, I would have taken Vesalainen but I was pretty laissez-faire about the draft last year for obvious reasons.

    1.52 is a PPG? I think there is a material difference between putting up 99 points in 65 games and scoring at a point/game.

    I’m sure you are smart enough to know that 10 games in the draft plus 1 year does not negate everything done prior to that unless, of course, you are looking for a something to propagate your narrative.

    Also, 2 players in the WHL scored at 2PPG last year so that expectation is wildly unreasonable.

    This isn’t the Q.

  178. Dicky94 says:

    hunter1909,

    So pretty much anyone who has been drinking. Myself included.

  179. Thinker says:

    OriginalPouzar: 1.52 is a PPG?I think there is a material difference between putting up 99 points in 65 games and scoring at a point/game.

    I’m sure you are smart enough to know that 10 games in the draft plus 1 year does not negate everything done prior to that unless, of course, you are looking for a something to propagate your narrative.

    Also, 2 players in the WHL scored at 2PPG last year so that expectation is wildly unreasonable.

    This isn’t the Q.

    What has he done for me lately? I’m frustrated by people treating him like a can’t miss prospect, when he is far from that. I’m frustrated that we ran Eberle out of town for being small, then in the same breath people are counting on a junior high sized player who best case scenario gets Eberle’s offense.

  180. JimmyV1965 says:

    OmJo: The refs sure aren’t helping. Like when a player lays two hits from behind on two Oilers players in the same shift and the first Oiler to get hit gets a penalty for retaliation after the second hit.

    Interesting though, is there any evidence for a correlation between team speed and penalties drawn? How do you turn speed into a number?

    NHL reffing drives me nuts. Biazarre that Hathaway doesn’t get a penalty there. When it comes to penalties I’m in the Stauffer camp. Veteran teams get veteran calls. I’m not sure who leads the league in differential, but I bet teams like the Hawks, Pens, Caps and Sharks are up there. I bet just having guys like Maroon, Lucic and Kass make us targets. Reffing. Spit.

  181. GMB3 says:

    Thinker: What has he done for me lately? I’m frustrated by people treating him like a can’t miss prospect, when he is far from that. I’m frustrated that we ran Eberle out of town for being small, then in the same breath people are counting on a junior high sized player who best case scenario gets Eberle’s offense.

    That’s fair, but your posts about him have been ridiculous.

  182. NYC-Back-to-Tokyo Oil (Gentleman Backpacker) says:

    Woah. That Stauffer tweet comparing JP to Wheeler is kind of strange isn’t it? He could have picked any player out there who had a ‘slow’ start to their career.

    He picked Wheeler- one of Chia’s all-time worst trades.

    A team-friendly media man throwing shade at the GM? Unlikely. So then I wonder if there have been some trade options looked at internally and he is cautioning against trading JP too early by highlighting the Wheeler example.

    I was thinking the other night that a JP for Simmonds trade would be like a lesser version of Iginla for Nieuwendyk. And a move I could see these two struggling teams making.

    I hope Chia stands pat.

    Each win here relieves pressure to act, even if the playoffs are out of reach, which I think they already are, even if the team rallies to a respectable finish, which I think they will.

    I would target Hutchinson for backup. Send Brossoit down
    now. No one will claim him after the St Louis and Calgary games. Let him find his groove in the Bake. Start Ellis tomorrow then move him to backup while you get Hutch in. Then send Ellis down when Talbot is back. Let him and Brossoit battle for the starter’s role down there.

  183. Thinker says:

    GMB3: That’s fair, but your posts about him have been ridiculous.

    Which part? If you’ve ever stood beside him, he looks like a child. This isn’t like some guys who are 5’9 and kinda stocky. The only reason he got drafted is to score goals, and he can’t do that at a low level right now. He’s following the Virtanen career path, except he doesn’t have the size to find a lesser role. We were on JP for less.

  184. hunter1909 says:

    Material pocession: Remember last year when many posters were suggesting trading Nurse because of his ‘limited ceiling, lack of offense, poor hockey IQ’?Even a very ‘fair minded’ poster was clamouring for this.Same thing is happening for JP this year.Same thing will happen for Yamamoto next year.

    This reminds me of a lecture given by Victor David Hanson, where he points out where the “elites” … as in 99.9% of them were totally wrong about who was going to win the US Presidential election…all the while sneering at “regular folk” who among other things can change the transmission of a car.

    While perhaps a few of the Lowetide “elite” were beginning to diss Nurse, my simple mind was able to stick to my original assessment of him, simply because I knew he’d gotten himself injured at a critical point of a certain season, and was focussing on playing defence first for most of the next season instead of taking chances, etc. In short, Nurse was basically coaching himself like a Scotty Bowman/Al Arbour would do – just let the kid develop a little, yano?

    In my opinion he’s still got a long way to go, but like everyone else I’m liking where his development’s at today.

    Yamamoto I never knew anything about aside that he’s got a killer of a last name, and he’s several pounds lighter than I am – hardly anything to go by other than when the fools running the team decide to give this pipsqueak several games at the critical opening part of the season – I can unequivocally state I’ve never seen a less useful player in my entire life including Yak at his worst. Yamamoto looked like an 11 year old child playing NHL sized players and was so far out of his depth, dragging McDavid’s line down like crazy, and fucking up the start of the season and now here we are debating whether or not the Christmas break will spell the point where Oilers decide to tank another season.

    Some poster was intimating that we fans need to stand behind the team no matter what. Pleeease. From Katz down to the janitor, no one associated with the Oilers gives a flying monkey’s what any of us think about them. I watch sports for stress relief, not spiritual guidance. When the team does dumbassed things, I’m more than happy to take notice.

    Re the Calgary game: It was a interesting experience cheering for the opposition. By focussing on watching the red team I was ironically able to notice many things about the Oilers. First, they’re actually a very solid hockey team from top to bottom, aside from a few glitches like Russell falling over which in my opinion is making the team mentally stronger, as they realise, like the game 2+ 2006 finals team realised that they have to pull together as a TEAM.

    Why people think the Oilers are total crap went out the window for me during that game.

    Of course they can still screw up the season, and I’ll be wrong, just like I’m wrong a lot of the time.

    PS: Re Jesse Puljujarvi… As a temporary fan of the opposition this kid looks like Gordie Howe out there. He’s standing right around the goal where the Flames defence obviously feel obligated to move him out roughly…but JP just tossed the Flames players away like so many rag dolls.

    Like Nurse, I’m going to go out on a limb and predict he’s going to be a future All Star.

  185. OriginalPouzar says:

    Thinker: What has he done for me lately? I’m frustrated by people treating him like a can’t miss prospect, when he is far from that. I’m frustrated that we ran Eberle out of town for being small, then in the same breath people are counting on a junior high sized player who best case scenario gets Eberle’s offense.

    I don’t treat his as a can’t-miss prospect at all – in fact, I have Benson ahead of him as far as likelihood to have an NHL career.

    I’m simply arguing against your express statements re: him not scoring in junior and, yes, we both know that you only being a PPG this year in 10 games does not discount one iota his 1.52PPG on his draft year.

    He is without a doubt a material prospect but a prospect nonetheless and he will, in my opinion, be spending most of (if not all of) next year in Bakersfield.

  186. OriginalPouzar says:

    Thinker: Which part? If you’ve ever stood beside him, he looks like a child. This isn’t like some guys who are 5’9 and kinda stocky. The only reason he got drafted is to score goals, and he can’t do that at a low level right now. He’s following the Virtanen career path, except he doesn’t have the size to find a lesser role. We were on JP for less.

    THe part where you say he can’t score in junior and discount his entire junior career based on 10 games.

  187. russ99 says:

    OmJo: What about the fourth camp? The people who think Chiarelli is a mediocre GM who is ruining the future of the franchise with his mistakes?

    I think that’s a more realistic camp based on what we’ve seen this season. So far.

    Or the fifth camp. Glad that we have a qualified, experienced, cup winning guy in charge after hiring an AHL coach for the job who just so happened to play for the Oilers in the 80s.

    And with that in mind, know that he had a big job to change up the flawed group and flawed mindsets in the front office we had, and thus he may win some and lose some, but he’ll eventually build the team towards a cup.

  188. hunter1909 says:

    Thinker: I’m frustrated that we ran Eberle out of town for being small

    Eberle ran himself out of town with an appallingly poor effort during the regular season, presumably sulking without his “big mate” Taylor Hall, and was 100% putrid during his one and only playoffs. I personally think Strome is a ‘better Oiler’.

    Eberle meanwhile in NYI-land, has changed exponentially. He’s forced to be a leader, and has grown a set of balls to go with his new responsibility. He was always an excellent talent, but thanks to the mismanagement going back to those heady days of Lowe+MacT Eberle simply ran out of mojo.

    Too bad Oilers can’t lend these players to other teams for 40 games, like they do in UK soccer. Eberle right now, playing as he is for the Islanders is everything you want in an NHL right winger.

  189. who says:

    Cassandra: But why would I change my mind about Lucic when nothing has happened to change my mind.

    Lucic’ contract has negative value (i.e. you can get more value for less money on the UFA market) and hence is worth less than a 7th round pick.Now part of this is the nature of the UFA market.Many free agents have untradeable contracts the day after they are signed, so it certainly doesn’t apply to Lucic only. I think this is beyond serious dispute, and nothing has happened in his year and a half as an Oiler to dispute this.As a result the contract is, or should be, untradeable (but who knows with general managers.Vernon Wells was traded.) .

    Or to put it another way.Jordan Eberle was traded as a salary dump.A salary dump in part necessitated by Milan Lucic’s contract.Jordan Eberle is a much better hockey player than Milan Lucic?

    Which proposition there is made in bad faith?Not only are they not in bad faith, I think they are truths so obvious they should be uncontroversial.

    Why would I change my mind when events have confirmed my initial view?

    As to the accusations of trolling, last year the day of the first Leafs game I said that Nazem Kadri would be an excellent return in a trade for Adam Larsson.The response I received here was, “now you are just trolling.”People were incredulous at the notion that Kadri was a better hockey player than Larsson.Then Kadri went out and owned McDavid’s soul and won the game for the Leafs.Events proved me right, and yet I was “just trolling.”

    I wasn’t trolling then.I’m not trolling now.Being right is not trolling.

    But you’re wrong.
    Chia does not trade Adam Larsson for Kadri, although I’m sure Lou would say yes.

  190. Professor Q says:

    NYC-Back-to-Tokyo Oil (Gentleman Backpacker):
    Woah. That Stauffer tweet comparing JP to Wheeler is kind of strange isn’t it? He could have picked any player out there who had a ‘slow’ start to their career.

    He picked Wheeler- one of Chia’s all-time worst trades.

    A team-friendly media man throwing shade at the GM? Unlikely. So then I wonder if there have been some trade options looked at internally and he is cautioning against trading JP too early by highlighting the Wheeler example.

    I was thinking the other night that a JP for Simmonds trade would be like a lesser version of Iginla for Nieuwendyk. And a move I could see these two struggling teams making.

    I hope Chia stands pat.

    Each win here relieves pressure to act, even if the playoffs are out of reach, which I think they already are, even if the team rallies to a respectable finish, which I think they will.

    I would target Hutchinson for backup. Send Brossoit down
    now. No one will claim him after the St Louis and Calgary games. Let him find his groove in the Bake. Start Ellis tomorrow then move him to backup while you get Hutch in. Then send Ellis down when Talbot is back. Let him and Brossoit battle for the starter’s role down there.

    Wheeler has been used as a comparable to Jesse since before draft day.

    You need to calm down.

  191. Professor Q says:

    Thinker: Which part? If you’ve ever stood beside him, he looks like a child. This isn’t like some guys who are 5’9 and kinda stocky. The only reason he got drafted is to score goals, and he can’t do that at a low level right now. He’s following the Virtanen career path, except he doesn’t have the size to find a lesser role. We were on JP for less.

    “Can’t score at a lower level”.

    He’s doing fine. Calm down.

  192. NYC-Back-to-Tokyo Oil (Gentleman Backpacker) says:

    who: But you’re wrong.
    Chia does not trade Adam Larsson for Kadri, although I’m sure Lou would say yes.

    Kadri for Larsson? I am not sure Lou says yes, actually. Kadri plays the toughs, freeing Matthews up. He scores 30 while doing it.

    Pretty even trade value wise.

    Larsson is a far bigger need for the Oilers than Kadri due to Nuge. But that is a team makeup issue, rather than a value issue.

  193. NYC-Back-to-Tokyo Oil (Gentleman Backpacker) says:

    Professor Q: Wheeler has been used as a comparable to Jesse since before draft day.

    You need to calm down.

    Did not know about the Wheeler comparable. Used by whom?
    You keep telling people to calm down. You need to stop telling people what to do, Professor.

  194. NYC-Back-to-Tokyo Oil (Gentleman Backpacker) says:

    Professor Q,

    Ok. TSN had a line about it.
    https://www.tsn.ca/3-jesse-puljujarvi-rw-1.466513

    Legitimate source for the Wheeler comparable. I did not know and I stand corrected. However, no need for telling people what to do. You could just point out the part missed without the extra snide remark.

  195. Professor Q says:

    NYC-Back-to-Tokyo Oil (Gentleman Backpacker):
    Professor Q,

    Ok. TSN had a line about it.
    https://www.tsn.ca/3-jesse-puljujarvi-rw-1.466513

    Legitimate source for the Wheeler comparable. I did not know and I stand corrected. However, no need for telling people what to do. You could just point out the part missed without the extra snide remark.

    It was neither snide nor “telling others what to do” (at least not maliciously so). I’m sorry that you feel this way.

    It’s like a calm reassurance, even with a friendly sigh. Although yes part of the added annoyance that could be detected comes from the constant dread that seems to be lurking here more prominently these days, and the increased message of #TradeTheMall.

    I do recognize it works better in verbal communication (avec accompanying body language) as opposed to the written word.

  196. Yeti says:

    Professor Q: “Can’t score at a lower level”.

    He’s doing fine. Calm down.

    https://pbs.twimg.com/media/DNvdCeGWkAIfpnF.jpg

  197. Professor Q says:

    Yeti: https://pbs.twimg.com/media/DNvdCeGWkAIfpnF.jpg

    I was waiting for it, I admit as much.

  198. Jaxon says:

    hunter1909: Yamamoto I never knew anything about aside that he’s got a killer of a last name, and he’s several pounds lighter than I am – hardly anything to go by other than when the fools running the team decide to give this pipsqueak several games at the critical opening part of the season – I can unequivocally state I’ve never seen a less useful player in my entire life including Yak at his worst. Yamamoto looked like an 11 year old child playing NHL sized players and was so far out of his depth, dragging McDavid’s line down like crazy, and fucking up the start of the season and now here we are debating whether or not the Christmas break will spell the point where Oilers decide to tank another season.

    That’s a bit extreme, no? For the most part I thought the “eye test” saw Yamamoto as playing quite well. I think many if not most bloggers/journalists/broadcasters saw the same. He did have the 3rd most shots/gp on the team behind McDavid and Klefbom, so he was involved in the play a lot. He was very creative and fairly tenacious on the forecheck. He had great vision and was great at stripping the puck. I think he dinged the post a couple times. With a little better puck luck, if those had been a fraction of an inch closer he may have finished his 9 game audition at a more respectable clip of 2 or 3 goals which is an 18-27 goal pace in addition to his 27 assist pace for a very respectable rookie season.

    I understand you’re angry, but I don’t think many saw the quality of his audition the way you did. He had some absolutely horrible puck luck.

  199. gogliano says:

    GMB3:

    – Is Chiarelli a great GM? Looking at his track record in the NHL, I would say no. He’s also probably not the worst GM in the league. I just don’t understand how people can possibly attempt to rationalize the Reinhart trade. “Framing” that trade as a good bet is kind of sad. If you look back at what was known about the draft and GR at the day of the trade, it’s up there with Martin Erat for Filipino Forsberg, and probably worse because at least Washington got an NHLer for him.

    Not to sound racist, but I’d take Erat over a Filipino Forsberg any day of the week.

  200. Professor Q says:

    GMB3: Do you seriously think that the Oilers would be negligent enough to not test him for mono if he was seriously ill?

    It does remind me of when the Cleveland Browns came out with the staph outbreak in their training and medical facilities. Players even sued as they weren’t properly identified nor treated quickly enough. Could have ended up losing limbs and their career.

    They were criticized for speaking out against management. But even though I love the Browns, that type of treatmemt is inexcusable.

    Around the same time, Edmonton had similar issues and Sheldon Souray spoke out about them…

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