Bridge Over Troubled Water

The Edmonton Oilers had a deja vu moment this weekend, when claiming Brandon Davidson from the Montreal Canadiens. It gives the team some interesting options, now and when everyone else is healthy. It also allows the general manager an opportunity to contemplate a truly inexpensive third pairing next season.

THE ATHLETIC

Great new offer! Includes a free 7-day trial so you can try The Athletic on for size free and see if they enjoy the in-depth, ad-free coverage on the site. If you don’t feel it’s worth the $4.49/month, cancel anytime during trial before getting charged. Offer is here.

50-MAN

  • We’re less than halfway through the regular season and the two locks for LW next season appear to be Milan Lucic and Jujhar Khaira. Just like we called it!
  • Mark Letestu is not an expensive player and fills a unique role on the team. Would you bring him back?
  • Jesse Puljujarvi is emerging now, we’re getting a glimpse of what he can do with skill. So far in his NHL career, he’s 38, 5-7-12, that projects to 11-15-26 for 82 games. I think he’ll post better numbers than those projections, but even if he lands there, that’s a good NHL season at 19. It makes things easier for Kailer Yamamoto to ease into the lineup next fall as well, only one unproven player at the position.
  • Brandon Davidson’s arrival gives the Oilers all kinds of options. They could run Klefbom-Sekera-Nurse on LH side when everyone is healthy, and then Larsson-Russell-Benning RH side. I’m going to bet Davidson forces his way into the top 6D, possibly in a rotation with Benning and Russell. Klefbom appears to be finding his way. The offseason may give Peter Chiarelli an opportunity to deal a LHD for a RHD.
  • The entire goalie depth chart seems uncertain today. A season can (and has) ripped the hell out of that position.

That’s the kind of trade we may see, wonder if the organization will give Brossoit the Flyers game before making a decision. The season is on the line, so there is a tremendous amount of urgency here. Neuvirth is a player who has been connected to Edmonton, mostly via free agency.

PROJECTED 2018-19 ROSTER AND CAP

  • I wanted to have a quick look at next year, recent word has the cap at $80 million and that really helps. There are some significant RFA’s (as above) but the money should work and allow the team to retain RNH.
  • Run this way, it’s easy to see why the current auditions are so important, and why the emergence of Jujhar Khaira and Jesse Puljujarvi is such a big deal.
  • The Davidson pickup is going to allow Peter Chiarelli to wheel, moving a LHD for something else in an area of need. Goalie? RHD? Sniper? Who is going?
  • Among the RFA’s, who gets the biggest contract? Would you bridge Darnell?

written by

The author didn‘t add any Information to his profile yet.
Related Posts

255 Responses to "Bridge Over Troubled Water"

Newer Comments »
  1. OriginalPouzar says:

    1) I’m thinking that Khaira isn’t a lock for LW next year but will, hopefully, replace Letestu as 4C and with a primary PK role (his numbers look good on the PK in a small sample size). I like Letestu (and his shootout skill adds additional value), however, in our cap situation, if we can get that 4C at $1M as opposed to $2M, that is meaningful.

    2) I’d be fine with Neuvrith but we definitely cannot afford a $2.5M back-up next year – I think Philly would have to eat $1M (if not the max 50%) – especially if they are going to get back a solid propsect/bottom 6 player (with upside) in Slep.

    3) I’m very curious to see where Brandon slots in to the pairings at practice today – it was interesting that he was on the 4th pairing yesterday.

  2. Munny says:

    I would be surprised if Hexie lends us a hand and makes a trade with the Oilers organization. Could happen, but I’d be surprised.

  3. OriginalPouzar says:

    Also, is it wise for us to consider Yamamoto a lock for the team next year?

    I don’t think he’s a lock – or at least he shouldn’t be. I think he can earn himself a spot (as could Benson) but I really hope that management doesn’t enter the off-season thinking that one (or both) of those players will be filling a material spot.

    They made that mistake this off-season – counted on Puljijarvi earning a top 6 RW spot and it cost the team early.

    With Maroon not being in the future plans (I wouldn’t think), I’m not sure how we acquire a more sure bet in the top 6 within our cap structure

    I think Chia has some work to do to find some real competition for the top 6 winger spots next season – its going to be really tough with our cap situation which is why we need guys like Khaira to fill that 4C spot for $1M cheaper than a guy like Letestu has.

  4. Bad Seed says:

    Munny,

    I wouldn’t call sending Slip Slappy his way as a favour….

  5. OriginalPouzar says:

    Psst, Lowetide, are you on break all week?

  6. Lowetide says:

    OriginalPouzar:
    Psst, Lowetide, are you on break all week?

    No Sir. Back tomorrow.

  7. Brantford Boy says:

    I do not bridge Nurse… wonder if 3.5M x 7 gets it done (thus giving him the extra year), or has he stapled himself with the rest at the assigned 4.167M?

    Similar for Strome, maybe 3M?… I sign him, perhaps to 4 years… Not sure where Benning fits in the salary world, would 2.5M x 3 get it done? Perhaps a bridge there too… , but bridge Brossoit for sure…

    This way Todd is happy with his centre pairs on each line (except for McDavid), which tells me what Connor will be working on significantly in the off season…

  8. who says:

    Assuming a 80 million cap I would offer Nurse a 8 year deal at 4-5 million per year and hope he takes it.
    Letestu only stays if hes willing to play for 1 year at 1.5 million. You’re basically buying time for some of the young forwards to develop and betting he wants to stay in Edmonton.
    The goalie deal is tough. I would wait a week but if Ii had to make a deal I would offer a draft pick or Caggulia before Slepeshev, preferably the draft pick. We’re going to need all the cheap wingers we can get next year.
    Don’t know if I trade any dmen next summer. Maybe just wouldn’t resign Davidson. Would probably wait 1 more year and then try and trade Sekera or Russell

  9. speeds says:

    Neuvirth would also provide some sort of insurance plan if EDM is contemplating moving Talbot.

  10. Bruce McCurdy says:

    Re: a trade for a goalie, I’d put it at better than 50/50 that any such deal would involve a goalie going the other way. Trade for a team’s top AHL tender, for example, well guess what, the trade partner is going to need an AHL tender. So it’s not too hard to envision e.g. a Brossoit+pick for Michael Hutchinson type deal.

    Some teams might have a surplus of goalies, e.g. Toronto who added Pickard after the season started and shoehorned him in, but many teams have a set number of stoppers in the org that would need to be replenished.

  11. frjohnk says:

    Brantford Boy: I do not bridge Nurse… wonder if 3.5M x 7 gets it done (thus giving him the extra year), or has he stapled himself with the rest at the assigned 4.167M?

    Matheson got $4.8M over 8 years, Nurse is younger and better, his agent will be looking at that and will be looking at getting $5M plus.

  12. OriginalPouzar says:

    Lowetide: No Sir. Back tomorrow.

    Got it – thank you.

    Enjoy your time.

  13. NYC-Back-to-Tokyo Oil (Gentleman Backpacker) says:

    I think it would be a shame to give up on Slepyshev already. We should know by now how injuries in camp can be a major issue in a young player’s development curve.

    He has good tools and the Oilers invested in his development. With Yakimov toast, he’s really the only potentially good aspect of that whole scenario left. Would hurt to send him off to address backup goalie when that problem could have easily been dealt with in the offseason for far less cost.

  14. JimmyV1965 says:

    Schleppy for Nuerverth seems like a particularly horrible deal. He’s a third round pick trending decently. Nuerverth should have very little trade value.

  15. OriginalPouzar says:

    Brantford Boy:
    I do not bridge Nurse… wonder if 3.5M x 7 gets it done (thus giving him the extra year), or has he stapled himself with the rest at the assigned 4.167M?

    Similar for Strome, maybe 3M?… I sign him, perhaps to 4 years… Not sure where Benning fits in the salary world, would 2.5M x 3 get it done? Perhaps a bridge there too… , but bridge Brossoit for sure…

    This way Todd is happy with his centre pairs on each line (except for McDavid), which tells me what Connor will be working on significantly in the off season…

    I don’t imagine that Nurse signs that contract – maybe though if he wants that term?

    Strome will need to be qualified at $3M so that’s the minimum – I don’t think I’d lock in term with Strome – I’d hope for 2 years assuming he’s still an RFA at the end of that deal.

    At this point, I think $2.5M is too high for Benning.

    Chia needs to get some value deals with these RFAs and Benning will need to come relatively cheap.

  16. Pouzar says:

    NYC-Back-to-Tokyo Oil (Gentleman Backpacker):
    I think it would be a shame to give up on Slepyshev already. We should know by now how injuries in camp can be a major issue in a young player’s development curve.

    He has good tools and the Oilers invested in his development. With Yakimov toast, he’s really the only potentially good aspect of that whole scenario left. Would hurt to send him off to address backup goalie when that problem could have easily been dealt with in the offseason for far less cost.

    I called this trade yesterday so it won’t happen.
    But yeah it would be a damn shame to lose Slepy.

  17. OriginalPouzar says:

    Bruce McCurdy:
    Re: a trade for a goalie, I’d put it at better than 50/50 that any such deal would involve a goalie going the other way. Trade for a team’s top AHL tender, for example, well guess what, the trade partner is going to need an AHL tender. So it’s not too hard to envision e.g. a Brossoit+pick for Michael Hutchinson type deal.

    Some teams might have a surplus of goalies, e.g. Toronto who added Pickard after the season started and shoehorned him in, but many teams have a set number of stoppers in the org that would need to be replenished.

    Its a good point, however, that team would be taking the risk that Brossoit doesn’t clear waivers – they might ask for Ellis instead.

  18. Woogie63 says:

    Who is going to be a better pro in two years … at the right price between 91,18, 58? Right now that is up in the air for me.

    Strome is going to be the most expensive.

  19. OriginalPouzar says:

    frjohnk: Matheson got $4.8M over 8 years, Nurse is younger and better, his agent will be looking at that and will be looking at getting $5M plus.

    That Matheson contract pissed me off the moment is was announced and I knew/know its going to be a problem for the Nurse contract.

    If Nurse demands $5M plus with term then I think we need to be prepared for a lengthy contract negotiation.

    That number will likely depend on where his box-cars land at the end of the year and his even strength offence is spiking right now.

    Blah!

  20. JimmyV1965 says:

    Brantford Boy:
    I do not bridge Nurse… wonder if 3.5M x 7 gets it done (thus giving him the extra year), or has he stapled himself with the rest at the assigned 4.167M?

    Similar for Strome, maybe 3M?… I sign him, perhaps to 4 years… Not sure where Benning fits in the salary world, would 2.5M x 3 get it done? Perhaps a bridge there too… , but bridge Brossoit for sure…

    This way Todd is happy with his centre pairs on each line (except for McDavid), which tells me what Connor will be working on significantly in the off season…

    Unless Benning shows some material improvement over the course of the year I’m signing him to a one-year deal. Right now he’s a seventh dman whose playing higher up the order.

  21. OriginalPouzar says:

    JimmyV1965:
    Schleppy for Nuerverth seems like a particularly horrible deal.He’s a third round pick trending decently. Nuerverth should have very little trade value.

    In particular with a $2.5M cap hit next year.

    We can’t take that contract on unless they retain $1M-$1.25M – how does that effect his value?

  22. NYC-Back-to-Tokyo Oil (Gentleman Backpacker) says:

    OriginalPouzar: Its a good point, however, that team would be taking the risk that Brossoit doesn’t clear waivers – they might ask for Ellis instead.

    Do we really think Brossoit would not clear waivers right now?

  23. NYC-Back-to-Tokyo Oil (Gentleman Backpacker) says:

    OriginalPouzar: That Matheson contract pissed me off the moment is was announced and I knew/know its going to be a problem for the Nurse contract.

    If Nurse demands $5M plus with term then I think we need to be prepared for a lengthy contract negotiation.

    That number will likely depend on where his box-cars land at the end of the year and his even strength offence is spiking right now.

    Blah!

    Just like we pissed people off with the Draisaitl contract so I guess we’re even?

  24. BornInAGretzkyJersey says:

    That Toronto picked up Pickard for a late round draft pick (6th?) sours me on any regular roster player traded for a backup goalie.

  25. OriginalPouzar says:

    NYC-Back-to-Tokyo Oil (Gentleman Backpacker): Just like we pissed people off with the Draisaitl contract so I guess we’re even?

    Except it doesn’t look like the Drai contract has been used too heavily in negotiations (i.e. Pastrnak).

  26. frjohnk says:

    OriginalPouzar: That Matheson contract pissed me off the moment is was announced and I knew/know its going to be a problem for the Nurse contract.

    If Nurse demands $5M plus with term then I think we need to be prepared for a lengthy contract negotiation.

    That number will likely depend on where his box-cars land at the end of the year and his even strength offence is spiking right now.

    Blah!

    Nurse has been the Oilers best D this year and if that were to be the story for the whole year then Nurse and his agent could go up to Chia and say, “well you didnt bridge Draisaitl, you paid him what he felt he was worth. Just like Drai, Im part of the core moving foward. No way am I ( Nurse) going to bridge and I am worth $5.5M to $6M.”

    This probably feels steep but with talk of Karlsson and Doughty possibly getting around McDavid money ( $11M- $13M) in the summer of 2019, if the Oilers feel that Nurse is venturing into top pairing territory ( I believe this) then I wouldnt be surprised to see the Oilers sign Nurse over $5M

  27. GMB3 says:

    NYC-Back-to-Tokyo Oil (Gentleman Backpacker): Just like we pissed people off with the Draisaitl contract so I guess we’re even?

    Didn’t seem to piss off Boston when they signed Pastrnak

  28. OriginalPouzar says:

    BornInAGretzkyJersey:
    That Toronto picked up Pickard for a late round draft pick (6th?) sours me on any regular roster player traded for a backup goalie.

    Yup – there are always back-up goalies available.

    There are few toiling in the minor leagues, goalies that are more proven at the NHL level than Brossoit – the acquisition cost should be cheap, cheaper that Slep unless we are getting a true proven veteran back-up tender.

    We do need to send a contract back though – maybe its Brossoit/Ellis, maybe its an AHL player – I don’t think it should be Slep unless we are getting a third rounder back as well.

  29. OriginalPouzar says:

    frjohnk: Nurse has been the Oilers best D this year and if that were to be the story for the whole year then Nurse and his agent could go up to Chia and say, well you didnt bridge Draisaitl, you paid him what he felt he was worth.No way am I ( Nurse) going to bridge and am worth $5.5M to $6M.

    This probably feels steep but with talk of Karlsson and Doughty possibly getting around McDavid money ( $11M- $13M) in the summer of 2019, if the Oilers feel that Nurse is venturing into top pairing territory ( I believe this) then I wouldnt be surprised to see the Oilers sign Nurse over $5M

    Hey, you could be right however lets assume Nurse plays the rest of the season like he has started it.

    While he may be the Oilers best d-man on the year, he would not be considered as one of the best d-men in the league for the year. Last year, Drai produced as a top 10 player in the NHL.

    They aren’t comparable negotiations in my mind.

    Those numbers are too high for Nurse I think – he may demand them but I don’t think Chia should just turn around and say “OK”. He’s not putting up 50 points – if he was then he could reasonably expect more money.

    The number has to come in under $5M.

    Screw you Mattheson.

  30. NYC-Back-to-Tokyo Oil (Gentleman Backpacker) says:

    GMB3: Didn’t seem to piss off Boston when they signed Pastrnak

    Well, that would be a good example of the opposite, right? They signed him for a lot less. The example cited was that Matheson’s contract means Nurse will get way more. But Pastrnak signed for way less and is a pretty comparable player: Drai has the centre over winger thing going for him, but Pastrnak did not play wing for McDavid for half the games, either (yes, I know Marchand and Bergeron are quality).

  31. texmex says:

    OriginalPouzar,

    Chia actually brought up the Matheson contract when he was on Stauffer’s show talking about a potential Nurse contract. I can’t remember the exact context though. He was on Bob’s show the same day he did his media avail

  32. NYC-Back-to-Tokyo Oil (Gentleman Backpacker) says:

    OriginalPouzar: Except it doesn’t look like the Drai contract has been used too heavily in negotiations (i.e. Pastrnak).

    I think you missed my point, which was exactly that. You shouldn’t use just one contract to set the market for all other RFAs. i.e. if Matheson is the only comparable for Nurse then you’re doing it wrong. Larsson, Klef, Klingberg, etc.

  33. NYC-Back-to-Tokyo Oil (Gentleman Backpacker) says:

    OriginalPouzar: Hey, you could be right however lets assume Nurse plays the rest of the season like he has started it.

    While he may be the Oilers best d-man on the year, he would not be considered as one of the best d-men in the league for the year. Last year, Drai produced as a top 10 player in the NHL.

    They aren’t comparable negotiations in my mind.

    Those numbers are too high for Nurse I think – he may demand them but I don’t think Chia should just turn around and say “OK”.He’s not putting up 50 points – if he was then he could reasonably expect more money.

    The number has to come in under $5M.

    Screw you Mattheson.

    Drai was a top-10 point getter. No way he was even close to a top-10 player.

  34. Pouzar says:

    OriginalPouzar: While he may be the Oilers best d-man on the year, he would not be considered as one of the best d-men in the league for the year.

    I would love to see the argument for/against this from the stats guys especially given the uptick in EV Strength scoring. I have no idea where he ranks on any of this stuff but he looks the part.

  35. Pouzar says:

    NYC-Back-to-Tokyo Oil (Gentleman Backpacker): Drai was a top-10 point getter. No way he was even close to a top-10 player.

    +1

  36. Cassandra says:

    NYC-Back-to-Tokyo Oil (Gentleman Backpacker): I think you missed my point, which was exactly that. You shouldn’t use just one contract to set the market for all other RFAs. i.e. if Matheson is the only comparable for Nurse then you’re doing it wrong. Larsson, Klef, Klingberg, etc.

    Based on past experience, “doing it wrong” is how Chiarelli negotiates contracts.

    This team absolutely needs Nurse to play well, however the better he plays the bigger his contract is going to be. You can be sure that whatever the number is, it is going to be higher than we expect.

    The idea that he will sign for less than 4 M is naive. If the usage and play continues as we have seen so far I expect somewhere around 5.5 M (to take a shot in the dark). In any case, we know from past experience that Chiarelli does not get RFA discounts (he paid Draisatl like a UFA) so 5.5 might be on the low end for Nurse.

  37. Brantford Boy says:

    NYC-Back-to-Tokyo Oil (Gentleman Backpacker),

    This was pretty much my point… comparable to ‘our’ team… 4.167 x 8 then, fine! Sign here…

  38. speeds says:

    Instead of potentially trading him, what are peoples thoughts on perhaps seeing Slepyshevs slow offensive start as an opportunity to get him signed a bit more inexpensively to his next deal, now?

  39. NYC-Back-to-Tokyo Oil (Gentleman Backpacker) says:

    speeds:
    Instead of potentially trading him, what are peoples thoughts on perhaps seeing Slepyshevs slow offensive start as an opportunity to get him signed a bit more inexpensively to his next deal, now?

    I agree wholeheartedly.

  40. NYC-Back-to-Tokyo Oil (Gentleman Backpacker) says:

    Brantford Boy:
    NYC-Back-to-Tokyo Oil (Gentleman Backpacker),

    This was pretty much my point… comparable to ‘our’ team… 4.167 x 8 then, fine!Sign here…

    Yeah, I am definitely pointing at Adam and Oscar and saying to Darnell: will you buy in?

    With due respect, F*ck the Matheson contract.

  41. frjohnk says:

    OriginalPouzar: While he may be the Oilers best d-man on the year, he would not be considered as one of the best d-men in the league for the year. Last year, Drai produced as a top 10 player in the NHL.

    They aren’t comparable negotiations in my mind.

    Thats why I see Nurse wanting to get paid $2.5 to $3M less than Drai.

  42. Cassandra says:

    Very interesting article on the athletic with game score ratings for every player in the NHL.

    http://www.theathletic.com/174457/2017/12/04/nhl-trends-a-look-at-whos-up-and-whos-down-after-november/

    These are dynamic, taking three years into account, with more recent play weighted more heavily.

    Some highlights from the Oilers

    McDavid is 4.25 (game score value added–I take it this is wins added over the course of a season). This is super-super star territory. Kucherov and Marchand are the only others over 4. But down from last month.

    Draisatl is 2.5. This is a top line score, in a group with the best players in the game, a little lower than Taylor Hall for instance, but a step down from the very best players who are over 3 (Pastrnak, Bergeron, Crosby, Barkov, Tarasenko, Mathews)

    Klefbom is just under 2 but dropping.

    Nurse is just under 1 but climbing.

    Model likes Puljujarvi (relatively). He’s the next best forward but basically the same as Lucic and Maroon, at just over 1 (second/third line player).

    The model doesn’t particularly like Nuge, he’s in a group with a bunch of third line players.

    If you look at other teams you see the model passes the smell test.

  43. Kinger_Oil.redux says:

    – Great post LT! If Nurse wants to hang with his buddies long-term, I think a 6-8 year in the range of Larsson makes sense. There’s a pecking order of the D Oil contracts, which helps the Oil.

    – While he was had an uptick in offense, his value is lower as he isn’t a PP option now (his wind-up way too slow and long to be at the point, IMO)

    – Worst, if Nurse be all hard-core, they bridge him, and he gets traded at some point. He’s going to be on this roster for a few more years anyways as we still own him, so not all that fussed…

  44. jtblack says:

    I bridge Nurse for2 yrs around $3 – 4 Mil. Peter has to mix upnthe contracts, cant all be long term 8 yrbdelas with NMC.

    I dont see Nurses vakue changing tremendously from now til then (like PK Subbans did during bridge).

    Love all the comments and input.

    Oilers are still in this thing. Starts with a Big win tomorrow. Scrape and Claw back to .500

  45. anonymous says:

    OriginalPouzar: That Matheson contract pissed me off the moment is was announced and I knew/know its going to be a problem for the Nurse contract.

    If Nurse demands $5M plus with term then I think we need to be prepared for a lengthy contract negotiation.

    That number will likely depend on where his box-cars land at the end of the year and his even strength offence is spiking right now.

    Blah!

    Pretty good since a lot of people were using Nurse as a throw in on big trade fantasies at the time of the Matheson signing.

  46. BONE207 says:

    LT…Happy Birthday…May your celebrations be more epic than a playoff position for the Oilers in 2018.
    Have a great day.

  47. McSorley33 says:

    speeds,

    Instead of potentially trading him, what are peoples thoughts on perhaps seeing Slepyshevs slow offensive start as an opportunity to get him signed a bit more inexpensively to his next deal, now?
    **************************************************************************************************
    That would represent a value play. And as an Oiler fan I cannot condone that.

    Plus, he has size, speed and can shoot. The idea of trading that chip for a used back up goalie in the middle of a lost season – just fits.

    Kidding aside, I agree.

  48. frjohnk says:

    Kinger_Oil.redux:
    – Great post LT!If Nurse wants to hang with his buddies long-term, I think a 6-8 year in the range of Larsson makes sense.There’s a pecking order of the D Oil contracts, which helps the Oil.

    – While he was had an uptick in offense, his value is lower as he isn’t a PP option now (his wind-up way too slow and long to be at the point, IMO)

    – Worst, if Nurse be all hard-core, they bridge him, and he gets traded at some point.He’s going to be on this roster for a few more years anyways as we still own him, so not all that fussed…

    Oilers probably view Nurses ceiling as higher than Larssons. Chia or McLellansaid he had the potential to be a good 5 tool Dman. Whether or not that is true. That is how they view him.
    Larson signed his deal a couple of years ago, and with comparable admen now getting more than Larson, Nirse will probably get more.

  49. OriginalPouzar says:

    NYC-Back-to-Tokyo Oil (Gentleman Backpacker): Yeah, I am definitely pointing at Adam and Oscar and saying to Darnell: will you buy in?

    With due respect, F*ck the Matheson contract.

    Here is hoping – are we holding our breath though?

  50. Cassandra says:

    jtblack:
    I bridge Nurse for2 yrs around $3 – 4 Mil.Peter has to mix upnthe contracts, cant all be long term 8 yrbdelas with NMC.

    I dont see Nurses vakue changing tremendously from now til then (like PK Subbans did during bridge).

    Love all the comments and input.

    Oilers are still in this thing.Starts with a Big win tomorrow. Scrape and Claw back to .500

    if the Oilers are a “true talent” .504 team then they have a 22% chance to make the playoffs.

    This isn’t over.

  51. OriginalPouzar says:

    jtblack:
    I bridge Nurse for2 yrs around $3 – 4 Mil.Peter has to mix upnthe contracts, cant all be long term 8 yrbdelas with NMC.

    I dont see Nurses vakue changing tremendously from now til then (like PK Subbans did during bridge).

    Love all the comments and input.

    Oilers are still in this thing.Starts with a Big win tomorrow. Scrape and Claw back to .500

    I have said this before as well.

    I don’t see a large risk in a bridge as I don’t see his value increasing materially over the next few years unless his offence spikes to the 40 plus point range.

  52. Woodguy v2.0 says:

    Neuvirth last 4 seasons (all situations)

    GSAA/100
    Player Season GSAA/100
    NEUVIRTH 14-15 -0.19
    NEUVIRTH 15-16 1.13
    NEUVIRTH 16-17 -2.37
    NEUVIRTH 17-18 0.59

    SV%
    Player Season Sv%
    NEUVIRTH 14-15 91.38
    NEUVIRTH 15-16 92.40
    NEUVIRTH 16-17 89.08
    NEUVIRTH 17-18 91.53

    He’s been up and down like a whore’s pantyhose.

    This year is fairly close to his aggregate as well.

    He’s a reasonable back up, but I run Ellis out there first.

    All the talk of “he’s never played a NHL game”, “the season is in the balance” and “you can’t give up on Brossoit yet” isn’t smart.

    Every goalie has to play their first NHL game some time.

    It would actually be beneficial in that NHL teams don’t have a pre-scouting book on him yet.

    You can bet Brossoit’s is : 1) High glove, 2) shoot low from distance as he’s a rebound machine 3) Loses his net when challenges so stays deep…. or something along those lines.

    I come from the Colby Cosh School of goaltender philosophy and that’s that the don’t get better with age.

    Once a goalie has shown above average competence at one level, move him to the next.

    Here’s a good piece on goalie aging: https://hockey-graphs.com/2014/03/21/how-well-do-goalies-age-a-look-at-a-goalie-aging-curve/

    Ellis has earned that start just like Brossoit did two years ago.

    If the season is in the balance do you want to start the guy who’s let in 10 in his last two games or a guy who beat him in the AHL by 10pts? (.908 to .918)

    Ellis turns 24 in January, he’s right at the age a lot of goaltenders get their first NHL game.

    Brossoit has 1100 minutes in the NHL now and has put up (all situation):

    SV% 0.896
    GSAA/100 -0.80

    Its not good.

    I don’t know if Ellis will be better, but the conveyor belt of goalies has to keep churning and if Brossoit is shitting the bed when he’s been handed the net, then next man up.

  53. NYC-Back-to-Tokyo Oil (Gentleman Backpacker) says:

    OriginalPouzar: Here is hoping – are we holding our breath though?

    8 years maybe not. but 6 x 4.8m or something I could see. Nurse strikes me as a guy who wants to stick around here. I could be wrong, but they have been pretty good to him overall.

  54. NYC-Back-to-Tokyo Oil (Gentleman Backpacker) says:

    Woodguy v2.0,

    I like the low cost option of Hutchinson in the AHL. I advocated for it, so has Bruce above. Prefer that to Neuvirth for sure.

  55. Pouzar says:

    Woodguy v2.0: I come from the Colby Cosh School of goaltender philosophy and that’s that the don’t get better with age.

    Did you see Wheats tweet this AM? RE: Doobie/LB

  56. Woodguy v2.0 says:

    re: bridging Nurse

    I’m never in favour of bridging players if the team is convinced of their long term ability.

    Going long and early on your best players is the best way to manage the cap long term and to get value contracts on your best players.

    I would do the same with Nurse.

    That said, Peter Chiarelli runs the Oilers and gave Draisaitl all teh mobneys forever for scoring at the same rate Eberle did with McDavid and having one unreal game in the playoffs so I’m not holding my breath.

  57. Woodguy v2.0 says:

    Pouzar: Did you see Wheats tweet this AM? RE: Doobie/LB

    Yes I did.

    Doobie is and almost always has been a below average goalie in the NHL save for 2 years in EDM and one year in ARI/MIN.

    Now he plays for a team that allows the least in terms of high quality shots and his GSAA/100 has been negative for 3 years.

    I can also point out a number of goalies with similar numbers who never panned out as well as Doobie (below average NHL goalie is near the pinnacle of the profession)

    I’ve still got Talbot for a year after this one so I want the next man up today.

  58. John Chambers says:

    NYC-Back-to-Tokyo Oil (Gentleman Backpacker):
    Woodguy v2.0,

    I like the low cost option of Hutchinson in the AHL. I advocated for it, so has Bruce above. Prefer that to Neuvirth for sure.

    Agreed with spending the resource to acquire Hutchinson, as he at least has NHL experience. And with an expiring contract, the man has a reason to perform.

    As for Nurse he’s in the category of good young NHL defensemen, but hasn’t shown the offense to merit >$5M. If the Oilers can get 7-8 years at $4.5 – $4.8M then they should. As a poster above suggested, if Nurse’s agent plays hardball they should bridge him like the Jets did with Trouba, and make him earn the big contract after a couple of extreme value years.

  59. Pouzar says:

    Woodguy v2.0: Yes I did.

    Doobie is and almost always has been a below average goalie in the NHL save for 1 year in EDM and one year in MIN.

    I can also point out a number of goalies with similar numbers who never panned out as well as Doobie (below average NHL goalie is near the pinnacle of the profession)

    I’ve still got Talbotfor a year after this one so I want the next man up today.

    Next man up could be the kid who was ECHL player of the month.

  60. Woodguy v2.0 says:

    NYC-Back-to-Tokyo Oil (Gentleman Backpacker):
    Woodguy v2.0,

    I like the low cost option of Hutchinson in the AHL. I advocated for it, so has Bruce above. Prefer that to Neuvirth for sure.

    I prefer Neuvirth to Hutchinson.

    I don’t particularly like either of them, but would take Neuvirth over Hutch.

  61. Woodguy v2.0 says:

    Pouzar: Next man up could be the kid who was ECHL player of the month.

    He’s in line too, just not this year.

  62. J-Bo says:

    I wouldn’t bridge Darnell. They have consistently made it clear via Stauffer and others that Darnell is part of the McDavid core. His offense has not been fabulous and so the dollar ask won’t be that high on a long term contract. If we gave Oscar a long term, why wouldn’t we give Darnell one? I think it should land somewhere around Oscars contract for value.

  63. Pouzar says:

    Woodguy v2.0: Doobie is and almost always has been a below average goalie in the NHL save for 2 years in EDM and one year in ARI/MIN.

    What are you basing this on?
    Not Save Percentage (which I know is not your fav stat).
    He’s been above average by that metric every year in MIN.

  64. Scungilli Slushy says:

    The reality is playoffs are probably lost already. Even if all players return to norms, 2 weeks without the #1A D and #1 G put a fork in it. Neuvirth and Davidson are not saviors. Both may play marginally for a while adjusting.

    Slepyshev is a player every team should want. All the tools young and cheap. A winger on a team starving for wingers, that craves size. If he can’t get his offense up you have a superb 4th liner that plays both wings and has better skill than most. The kind of player that really helps for depth and the playoffs when often bottom 6 guys have Cinderella tuns because the top 6 are sawing off. I’d only trade him in a package for a player that would make a difference like a 2RD. Otherwise it’s pointlessly wasting assets for something that shouldn’t cost that much in a long shot playoff push.

    Nurse is the goods. If he’ll take low 5’s or less you go 8. It only costs more later and that ties him up to 31YO. That’s a lot of security for him, it’s market for both parties.

    I agree with LT’s projected roster, that’s the direction I think they should go, unless some extremely good fortune comes along. Older players aren’t helpful if they require term and an overpay, those docks are full already, and right side has talent in house, no point blocking them with an albatross deal, the kind that fail more than help.

    Cheap vets on 1 years maybe. I’d bring Letestu back one year 1M. Any more isn’t worth it, Khaira is likely already passing him. The 4th line already has an expensive RW.

    Keep centre depth, improve at RD if possible but that may have to wait until NMC’s lift, and make sure there are two goalies that can play in the NHL. Not much more is needed.

    I’d start Ellis before losing a good young player in a season like this. Why have him if you don’t give him a shot when he’s needed?

    * Another reason to keep Slepy is Caggiula while playing like the Tasmanian Devil has not exactly blown the doors off, getting a lot more push than Slepy has.

  65. NYC-Back-to-Tokyo Oil (Gentleman Backpacker) says:

    Woodguy v2.0: I prefer Neuvirth to Hutchinson.

    I don’t particularly like either of them, but would take Neuvirth over Hutch.

    If they cost the same, I’d probably agree. But Neuvirth has one more year at 2.5m vs Hutch expiring contract, not to mention the cost to acquire. Hutch shouldn’t cost Slepyshev.

  66. Silver Streak says:

    Hey why all the chatter about why we dont know how good Brossoit is…..he`s been in our system for 4 years….what we should be asking is ” how good is Ellis ” ……by all the stats HE is our man….start him in the Philli game…..and yes, if he shows he`s got game, make an off for Hutch…but not one giving the farm away….cause we then know Ellis is our next up. Seems pretty bloody simple to me.

  67. frjohnk says:

    LT, just looking at the chart you have.
    If the cap is $80M, we have $16M ( using reasonable bonus) to sign
    Nurse
    Benning
    Davidson
    Strome
    Sleppy
    Drake
    Broissant ( or back up goalie)
    Letestu ( or 4th line center)

    Even with Nurse getting $5M and Strome $3M is definitely doable to get all these guys ( using bridge contracts) and fitting under $80M.

    And we can keep RNH!!!

  68. OriginalPouzar says:

    McDavid is practicing today.

  69. SayItAin'tSo, Gretz, SayItAin'tSo! says:

    Scungilli Slushy,

    Ya I keep hearing that “the playoffs are lost” and then I look at the Pacific standings and the schedules left for each team and there is no way I make that case yet.

    They need to play better, no question about it, but that division is up for grabs and probably will be until sometimes in late March.

  70. Side says:

    SayItAin’tSo, Gretz, SayItAin’tSo!:
    Scungilli Slushy,

    Ya I keep hearing that “the playoffs are lost” and then I look at the Pacific standings and the schedules left for each team and there is no way I make that case yet.

    They need to play better, no question about it, but that division is up for grabs and probably will be until sometimes in late March.

    Oilers are 6 points out of a playoff spot and they have 55 games to play. I definitely do not agree with the “playoffs are lost” stance either, especially with McDavid on the team.

  71. OriginalPouzar says:

    John Chambers: Agreed with spending the resource to acquire Hutchinson, as he at least has NHL experience. And with an expiring contract, the man has a reason to perform.

    As for Nurse he’s in the category of good young NHL defensemen, but hasn’t shown the offense to merit >$5M. If the Oilers can get 7-8 years at $4.5 – $4.8M then they should. As a poster above suggested, if Nurse’s agent plays hardball they should bridge him like the Jets did with Trouba, and make him earn the big contract after a couple of extreme value years.

    I agree that Nurse doesn’t provide the offence to warrant $5M (and stated the same above).

    With that said, Michael Matheson provides Mark Fayne level offence and received a smige under $5M.

    I really hate that contract.

    I am hopeful that our manager will point to the contract of Larsson and Klefbom and convince Nurse to sign around that level – I have no idea now Nurse will be in contract negotiations.

  72. OriginalPouzar says:

    Woodguy v2.0: I prefer Neuvirth to Hutchinson.

    I don’t particularly like either of them, but would take Neuvirth over Hutch.

    For straight up performance, yes, I agree.

    Neuvrith comes with a $2.5M contract next season which kills the deal right there unless PHI will agree to retain $1M to $1.25M.

    We cannot have a back-up making much more than $1M next year – just can’t afford it.

  73. OriginalPouzar says:

    Woodguy v2.0: He’s in line too, just not this year.

    Very happy with the college free agent goaltending signings.

    First Ellis then Starett – good arrows on these tenders.

  74. Pouzar says:

    OriginalPouzar: I agree that Nurse doesn’t provide the offence

    For the time being that narrative is changing.
    But he needs to severely upgrade the muffin slap shot.

  75. Scungilli Slushy says:

    SayItAin’tSo, Gretz, SayItAin’tSo!:
    Scungilli Slushy,

    Ya I keep hearing that “the playoffs are lost” and then I look at the Pacific standings and the schedules left for each team and there is no way I make that case yet.

    They need to play better, no question about it, but that division is up for grabs and probably will be until sometimes in late March.

    To get a Wildcard they also have to outpoint Chicago and Anaheim. For 3rd in Division they have to make up 6 pts on San Jose who has a game in hand and outplay Anaheim Calgary and Vancouver, significantly to catch them. With no goalie and the 2 best overall D out for a couple more weeks. They cannot lose any more ground at this point, really need to be gaining.

    With Bettman points, it looks like everybody is in it until the end, but it is really hard (not impossible) to gain ground. That is why US Thanksgiving is used as the cutoff, not many teams recover after that.

    Chances are slim, so why bleed more assets? Smart teams don’t give away good players for no reason and guys that aren’t a part of the future. Late round pics or unwanted non roster players sure. Slepy isn’t a world beater but there could be a strong mid tier player that all contenders need on value contracts. They will just have to find him again if the move him.

  76. LMHF#1 says:

    WG – what’s the issue with flipping a late pick for Hutchinson as insurance?

    .951 in the AHL is nothing to sneeze at – no?

  77. Kinger_Oil.redux says:

    – For the record: I give LB the start tmrw. They been developing him for so many years. He was great when the team was great vs. CAL, then he sucked, when the team stopped trying

    – He let in a few softies: but it’s an organization: you give him a few more starts, and as long as they keep winning, you play him IMO. Coach him up, trust him.

    – That’s a lot of years of committment to a player to punt him so quickly when he enters the bigs IMO, and not a good template for the Ellis Skinner etc, to see that they have a tiny rope and small sample size to make an impression. You’ve got to believe in the process that got him here

  78. Pouzar says:

    LMHF#1:
    WG – what’s the issue with flipping a late pick for Hutchinson as insurance?

    .951 in the AHL is nothing to sneeze at – no?

    Does Chevy do trades?

  79. flea says:

    frjohnk,

    Maroon should be on this list and makes it more complicated (but not impossible) to resign all.

  80. SayItAin'tSo, Gretz, SayItAin'tSo! says:

    Scungilli Slushy,

    I agree chances are slim but aside from LA (who also has consistency issues) I honestly don’t think the Thanksgiving rules apply when:

    Vegas: is outperforming even the wildest of expectations

    Vancouver: is outperforming even the wildest of expectations

    Calgary: defense is having issues and they are even more top heavy than the Oilers

    San Jose: They are scoring at an incredibly low rate already and are older

    All I’m saying is that despite the hill, this isn’t close to over. The Oilers this year are 4-1-0 against the Pacific and still have 24 games left against those teams. Agreed they can’t lose ground but I also don’t think Philly, Montreal and Toronto are absolute world beaters either.

  81. Cassandra says:

    OriginalPouzar: I agree that Nurse doesn’t provide the offence to warrant $5M (and stated the same above).

    With that said, Michael Matheson provides Mark Fayne level offence and received a smige under $5M.

    I really hate that contract.

    I am hopeful that our manager will point to the contract of Larsson and Klefbom and convince Nurse to sign around that level – I have no idea now Nurse will be in contract negotiations.

    When Draisatl signed his contract we used the % of the cap angle to justify the number.

    If you play that game with Nurse and compare him to Klefbom’s contract at an 80 M cap
    you get Nurse at just over 4.5 M cap hit.

    Except when Klefbom signed that contract he had only one full season under his belt. Nurse will have three seasons, around 200 GP, and if we are projecting, the last season as the undisputed #1 D on the team.

    If Klefbom is the comparable, Nurse is getting significantly more than 4.5 a season.

    If Matheson is the comparable, Nurse’s baseline salary is 5.2 M. But Matheson signed that contract after only one season. So by that measure, Nurse is also getting significantly more than 5.2 M.

    If Parayko is the comparable, Nurse’s baseline salary with an 80 M cap is just under 5.9 M. This was after two good seasons, with between 30 and 40 points.

    That’s your upper boundary. So unless, Chiarelli learns to play hardball, Nurse is getting between 5.5 and 6 M next year.

  82. OriginalPouzar says:

    Drai is back on the 1st PP unit today and Nuge back on the 2nd.

    I’m fine with Drai on the first unit (he was the driver of PP1 last season) but I believe Nuge should have a more material role on the PP – in fact, I almost think he should QB it over McDavid.

  83. who says:

    OriginalPouzar:
    Drai is back on the 1st PP unit today and Nuge back on the 2nd.

    I’m fine with Drai on the first unit (he was the drivers of PP1 last season) but I believe Nuge should have a more material role on the PP – in fact, I almost think he should QB it over McDavid.

    I like Nuge driving PP2. That unit was having more success than PP1 the last few weeks with Nuge at the controls. Let Macdavid and Drai figure it out. They will eventually.
    I think the key is changing up some of the support staff.

  84. OriginalPouzar says:

    Russia banned from the 2018 Olympics – clean athletes can participate under a neutral flag but that, obviously, won’t work for hockey.

    The hockey tournament just opened up.

  85. NYC-Back-to-Tokyo Oil (Gentleman Backpacker) says:

    so much for Russia’s KHL players winning them hockey gold this year.

  86. leadfarmer says:

    Woodguy v2.0: I prefer Neuvirth to Hutchinson.

    I don’t particularly like either of them, but would take Neuvirth over Hutch.

    I’d prefer Grubauer over both. You can run him until Talbot gets back and still trade him at the deadline to get some cost back. Neuvirths 2.5 mil next year kills it for me. Unless Philly retains or takes Russell back with us retaining.

  87. dustrock says:

    Wow can’t believe they actually banned Russia.

  88. OriginalPouzar says:

    Lines today at practice are essentially the same as they were against CGY so we may be looking at no changes.

    Although I’d love to see Slep over Drake, as I’ve stated, its tough to find a way to get Slep or Walker in to the lineup.

    Can’t change the fourth line to get Walker in there (and he can’t play up the lineup). Only forward that I think could come out realistically is Drake and coach pretty much will never do that.

    I’m hopeful Davidson makes it in to the lineup but the defence as a group played well in Calgary.

  89. Woogie63 says:

    Didn’t Winnipeg get a lot better, when Hutch became a Moose?

  90. OriginalPouzar says:

    The KHL could opt out of the Olympics as well and my guess is they will (tomorrow).

    We may be looking a World Championship type of Olympics – I’ll still watch and be interested but its a bit disappointing.

  91. OriginalPouzar says:

    Sekera is taking part in contact drills today – getting closer.

  92. Cassandra says:

    Great news in every possible respect that Russia has been banned from the Olympics.

  93. Ryan says:

    Woodguy v2.0:
    Neuvirth last 4 seasons (all situations)

    GSAA/100
    PlayerSeasonGSAA/100
    NEUVIRTH14-15-0.19
    NEUVIRTH15-161.13
    NEUVIRTH16-17-2.37
    NEUVIRTH17-180.59

    SV%
    PlayerSeasonSv%
    NEUVIRTH14-1591.38
    NEUVIRTH15-1692.40
    NEUVIRTH16-1789.08
    NEUVIRTH17-1891.53

    He’s been up and down like a whore’s pantyhose.

    This year is fairly close to his aggregate as well.

    He’s a reasonable back up, but I run Ellis out there first.

    All the talk of “he’s never played a NHL game”, “the season is in the balance” and “you can’t give up on Brossoit yet” isn’t smart.

    Every goalie has to play their first NHL game some time.

    It would actually be beneficial in that NHL teams don’t have a pre-scouting book on him yet.

    You can bet Brossoit’s is : 1) High glove, 2) shoot low from distance as he’s a rebound machine 3) Loses his net when challenges so stays deep…. or something along those lines.

    I come from the Colby Cosh School of goaltender philosophy and that’s that the don’t get better with age.

    Once a goalie has shown above average competence at one level, move him to the next.

    Here’s a good piece on goalie aging: https://hockey-graphs.com/2014/03/21/how-well-do-goalies-age-a-look-at-a-goalie-aging-curve/

    Ellis has earned that start just like Brossoit did two years ago.

    If the season is in the balance do you want to start the guy who’s let in 10 in his last two games or a guy who beat him in the AHL by 10pts?(.908 to .918)

    Ellis turns 24 in January, he’s right at the age a lot of goaltenders get their first NHL game.

    Brossoit has 1100 minutes in the NHL now and has put up (all situation):

    SV% 0.896
    GSAA/100 -0.80

    Its not good.

    I don’t know if Ellis will be better, but the conveyor belt of goalies has to keep churning and if Brossoit is shitting the bed when he’s been handed the net, then next man up.

    I agree given the circumstances that the Oilers should try Ellis.

    McLellan seems like the type of guy who will double down on a bet bet, so I can see Broissoit getting the next start.

    Lowetide had mentioned something to the effect that how the Oilers handle Broissoit will shed some light on the internal management structure of the Org. He also speculated that some of the old guard see Broissoit as a starter.

    Chiarelli has nothing tying himself to Broisssoit.

    If the Oilers get stubborn on Broissoit despite ongoing poor results, we will be living in interesting times.

  94. J-Bo says:

    Cassandra: When Draisatl signed his contract we used the % of the cap angle to justify the number.

    If you play that game with Nurse and compare him to Klefbom’s contract at an 80 M capyou get Nurse at just over 4.5 M cap hit.

    Except when Klefbom signed that contract he had only one full season under his belt.Nurse will have three seasons, around 200 GP, and if we are projecting, the last season as the undisputed #1 D on the team.

    If Klefbom is the comparable, Nurse is getting significantly more than 4.5 a season.

    If Matheson is the comparable, Nurse’s baseline salary is 5.2 M.But Matheson signed that contract after only one season.So by that measure, Nurse is also getting significantly more than 5.2 M.

    If Parayko is the comparable, Nurse’s baseline salary with an 80 M cap is just under 5.9 M.This was after two good seasons, with between 30 and 40 points.

    That’s your upper boundary.So unless, Chiarelli learns to play hardball, Nurse is getting between 5.5 and 6 M next year.

    I really don’t see how Nurse possibly gets six million. Even if he is playing top line minutes this year for a good chunk of the year. Offense is what gets paid on defense and he simply hasn’t shown it. The more years he has played actually works against him here as it weakens the thought that the offense is going to come. Could it come? Sure. On a balance of probabilities, will it come? Not likely. Nobody pays a defensemen 6 million unless he produces significant offense. They also won’t use the % of cap thing with Nurse. That was mostly due to McDavid. Darnell is not in that ballpark. I can’t see a longterm contract for Darnell going more then 5 and I think it will be less. He is not a free agent and not that important to the success of the team like McDavid and Draisaital are. My opinion anyways.

  95. Surrey Oiler says:

    NYC-Back-to-Tokyo Oil (Gentleman Backpacker),

    LB would clear waivers in ECHL, he’s done bud

  96. Thinker says:

    Klef could easily take his spot back by the end of the year, and then Nurse loses a lot of leverage. I still do him long term, because he shouldn’t be that expensive. This isn’t like Draisaitl where you are paying the most you will ever pay for him. I’d estimate he is somewhere slightly south of Sekera at the most.

  97. Cassandra says:

    J-Bo,

    I gave you three comparables, all with offense in the same range. And that is without adding on the Chiarelli escalator.

    But you can go ahead and bookmark this thread if you like.

    Another prophecy. Once Nurse signs for 5.5 M (or higher), people will bend over backwards to justify the deal in much the same way they did for Draisatl.

    Honestly, Nurse at 5.5 M is probably better than Draisatl at 8.5 M.

  98. Pouzar says:

    J-Bo: Offense is what gets paid on defense and he simply hasn’t shown it.

    I give up.

  99. who says:

    Thinker:
    Klef could easily take his spot back by the end of the year, and then Nurse loses a lot of leverage. I still do him long term, because he shouldn’tbe that expensive. This isn’t like Draisaitl where you are paying the most you will ever pay for him. I’d estimate he is somewhere slightly south of Sekera at the most.

    If you could lock him in for 8 years at that I think I’d do it. 5.25?

  100. Cassandra says:

    Anyway, with an 80 M cap you could keep the roster intact but you wouldn’t be able to add very much.

    And with Nurse playing well, Sekera on a NMC, and Russell untradeable, that means that Klefbom is the next guy to walk the plank.

  101. Lowetide says:

    Cassandra:
    Anyway, with an 80 M cap you could keep the roster intact but you wouldn’t be able to add very much.

    And with Nurse playing well, Sekera on a NMC, and Russell untradeable, that means that Klefbom is the next guy to walk the plank.

    Makes very little sense to trade Klefbom.With due respect to other blue, he has the most complete skill set.

  102. Pouzar says:

    Lowetide: Makes very little sense to trade Klefbom.With due respect to other blue, he has the most complete skill set.

    I agree he should not be traded but not b/c he has the most complete skill set. That contract is serious value.

  103. Kinger_Oil.redux says:

    Klef-Larson ($8.5MM)
    Nurse-Russel $8.5MM)
    Sek-Benning ($6.5MM)
    Davidson/Gryba ($2MM)

    – Is $25MM too much for the above?

    – Then 2019, you start bringing in the AHL’ers: and move up and out…

  104. Woodguy v2.0 says:

    Brossoit starts as per Bob via Todd

    Larsson out longer than originally thought (Xmas?) as per Bob via Todd

  105. Woodguy v2.0 says:

    Lowetide: Makes very little sense to trade Klefbom.With due respect to other blue, he has the most complete skill set.

    Its the price you pay.

  106. Pouzar says:

    Woodguy v2.0: Brossoit starts as per Bob via Todd

    Disagree with this.

    Woodguy v2.0: Larsson out longer than originally thought (Xmas?) as per Bob via Todd

    F^ck. Is this real life?

  107. leadfarmer says:

    Woogie63:
    Didn’t Winnipeg get a lot better, when Hutch became a Moose?

    No. They got a lot better when Helleybuck learned how to make a save this year. Hutch, Helleybuck and Pavelec took turns losing games for them

  108. frjohnk says:

    Woodguy v2.0: Larsson out longer than originally thought (Xmas?) as per Bob via Todd

    Great!

    Looks like we got an injury prone D when we traded……

    Ha, couldnt resits.

  109. OriginalPouzar says:

    Brossoit starts tomorrow.

    I agree with this. Give him the net and see how he rebounds.

    Ellis should get on of the back to backs on the weekend unless Brossoit is lights out.

  110. OriginalPouzar says:

    Larsson will be out a bit longer than expected.

    That’s just from a tweet – I will listen to Coach’s media avail when posted.

  111. russ99 says:

    Ugh. Hope Larsson is OK.

    Good thing we got Davidson.

    As for RW, I’d really like the Oilers to land a quality NHL RW, then make the kids earn their spots.

    Assuming that recent draft picks can play their way into major roles quickly is a poor assumption.

  112. Jethro Tull says:

    Woodguy v2.0:
    Brossoit starts as per Bob via Todd

    Larsson out longer than originally thought (Xmas?) as per Bob via Todd

    We knew the moment they picked up Davy….

  113. Ribs says:

    Ribs: *Awaits news of long term injury to Larsson*

    …And there it is…

  114. LMHF#1 says:

    I’d be okay with Brossoit starting if the Coach had him on a short leash.

    Unfortunately, the Coach has no concept of when he needs to yank a goalie.

    In the current environment, it should be Ellis.

  115. who says:

    Okay. Is it not possible that our current d core remains intact for this year and the next two.
    If we sign Nurse long term for 5 and bridge Benning for 2×2 you would have app 25 mil tied up in your top 6. Add 1 mil for your 7th dman and you are at 26. That’s high, but doable with a 80 mil cap. Just have to keep the wings cheap.
    At this point you look at trading Sekera or Russell or both.
    My reasoning is that all your first year pro dmen are waiver exempt through this time frame and gives them plenty of time to develop in the minors. None of them have as high a ceiling as Klefbom or Nurse so trading one of these established players seems like a step backwards to me.

  116. Thinker says:

    who: If you could lock him in for 8 years at that I think I’d do it. 5.25?

    I think that’s fair, even if he turns out to be only a 30pt ish 2nd pairing guy.

  117. Cassandra says:

    Lowetide: Makes very little sense to trade Klefbom.With due respect to other blue, he has the most complete skill set.

    This is, of course, true. However, we aren’t talking about what makes sense. We are talking about what Chiarelli will do.

  118. Cassandra says:

    who,

    You can’t trade Sekera or Russell. Those are not options.

    Well, I guess it is technically possible to trade Russell, but then you are getting a contract back you don’t really want.

  119. OriginalPouzar says:

    russ99:
    Ugh. Hope Larsson is OK.

    Good thing we got Davidson.

    As for RW, I’d really like the Oilers to land a quality NHL RW, then make the kids earn their spots.

    Assuming that recent draft picks can play their way into major roles quickly is a poor assumption.

    I absolutely agree with this and posted something very similar earlier. While both Benson and Yamamoto should have every opportunity to earn a top 6 spot on this team out of camp, management needs to make it an actual competition.

    Management cannot go in to the season with the expectation that one (or both) of these players will contribute materially in the top 6 – they did that this year (Puljijarvi) and it cost the team wins at the beginning of the year.

    With that said, we all know that we need value contacts in that top 6 – young players outproducing their ELCs/2nd contracts and we don’t seem to have any sure-bet graduates this coming season (Benson/Yamamoto not to be counted on yet) – the best bet is Strome.

    I would love management to acquire a more proven top 6 winger but I just don’t see how we can afford that – let alone get one to come on a short term – and that’s without these crazy numbers for Nurse’s next contract.

  120. Cassandra says:

    Kinger_Oil.redux:
    Klef-Larson ($8.5MM)
    Nurse-Russel $8.5MM)
    Sek-Benning ($6.5MM)
    Davidson/Gryba ($2MM)

    – Is $25MM too much for the above?

    – Then 2019, you start bringing in the AHL’ers: and move up and out…

    Nurse is getting more than 4.5.

    Benning is getting more than 1.

    Davidson and Gryba are at 2.3 M right now. If Davidson plays well enough to keep that is going up as well.

    You are short at least 3 million in your estimates.

  121. John Chambers says:

    Oiler contracts etched in stone circa 2020 should be:

    X – McDavid 12.5 – Puljujarvi 3.5
    Lucic 6 – Drai 8.5 – X
    X – RNH 6 – X

    Klef 4.1 – Lars 4.1
    Sek 5.5 – X
    Nurse 5 – X

    You can rotate around those players but that’s $56M that should be spoken for.

    The best long-term plan is to endure Russell’s contract one more year (he and Benning are the RD X’s this season and next), then trade him after his July 1 signing bonus to a non-cap team.

    With any luck internal candidates like Yamamoto, Khaira, Bear, Slepyshev, and Benson grab 2-3 of those excess spots.

    Summer 2019 has an opening when both Sek and Russell’s NMCs have restrictions removed, but the team salary structure is petrified until then.

  122. Thinker says:

    who:
    Okay. Is it not possible that our current d core remains intact for this year and the next two.
    If we sign Nurse long term for 5 and bridge Benning for 2×2 you would have app 25 mil tied up in your top 6. Add 1 mil for your 7th dman and you are at 26. That’s high, but doable with a 80 mil cap. Just have to keep the wings cheap.
    At this point you look at trading Sekera or Russell or both.
    My reasoning is that all your first year pro dmen are waiver exempt through this time frame and gives them plenty of time to develop in the minors. None of them have as high a ceiling as Klefbom orNurse so trading one of these established players seems like a step backwards to me.

    Sekera is, as was discussed at the time of his signing, a stop gap until the dmen arrived. Now that they have, it’s time to look at moving him to fill a need. This would be the year to do it, as we aren’t competing for the cup anyway. Only problem is if he comes back and struggles. Then you might have to hold him for another year, and I’m not sure where that leads. You never know, someone at the deadline might take russell…

  123. who says:

    Cassandra:
    who,

    You can’t trade Sekera or Russell.Those are not options.

    Well, I guess it is technically possible to trade Russell, but then you are getting a contract back you don’t really want.

    I’m talking summer 2020. They each would have 1 year left on their contract with limited NMCs. I think they are both tradeable at that point.

  124. Woodguy v2.0 says:

    Pouzar: What are you basing this on?
    Not Save Percentage (which I know is not your fav stat).
    He’s been above average by that metric every year in MIN.

    Doobie’s best 2 years in EDM were 11/12 and 12/13.

    He had a high GSAA despite averagish SV% due to the high number of high end shots.

    MIN has been the best or one of the best defensive teams in the NHL since Doobie got there. He finished the year off well when he got there and then started the next year well and cratered.

    The two years+ since have been meh.

    Here’s MIN’s Expected Goals Against/60 last 4 years (Doobie only a part of 14-15 and he was a good part)

    Team Season xGA/60
    MIN 14-15 2.10
    MIN 15-16 2.35
    MIN 16-17 2.25
    MIN 17-18 2.50

    Actual Goals Against.60
    Team Season GA/60
    MIN 14-15 2.34
    MIN 15-16 2.42
    MIN 16-17 2.45
    MIN 17-18 2.87

    So their goalies are not stopping “league average” in terms of expected goals. (a negative GSAA) and their actual goals against are higher than expected.

    Here’s MIN’s goalies GSAA/100 and SV% since he got there (all situations)

    14-15
    Player Sv%
    DARCY.KUEMPER 90.60
    DEVAN.DUBNYK 92.88
    NIKLAS.BACKSTROM 88.72

    Player GSAA/100
    DARCY.KUEMPER -2.10
    DEVAN.DUBNYK 0.76
    NIKLAS.BACKSTROM -3.18

    So Doobie gets there and is a Savior. He was certainly above average that year as the other goalies were not good. Very good year.

    He gets 6 years at $4.33 AAV (tailing contract)

    15-16
    Player Sv%
    DARCY.KUEMPER 91.52
    DEVAN.DUBNYK 91.79

    15-16
    Player GSAA/100
    DARCY.KUEMPER 0.21
    DEVAN.DUBNYK -0.16

    The first full year he and Kuemper are really close in SV% and Kuemper slightly better in GSAA/100. Not an above average goalie that year.

    16-17
    Player Sv%
    DARCY.KUEMPER 90.21
    DEVAN.DUBNYK 92.33

    Player GSAA/100
    DARCY.KUEMPER -1.81
    DEVAN.DUBNYK -0.41

    Next full year. Kuemper does worse, Doobie is still a negative GSAA. Higher SV%, but MIN’s goalies see less high end shots than most goalies.

    17-18
    Player Sv%
    ALEX.STALOCK 90.38
    DEVAN.DUBNYK 91.64

    Player GSAA/100
    ALEX.STALOCK -0.37
    DEVAN.DUBNYK -0.71

    This year Doobie slips again. SV% below average, GSAA pretty bad.

    In Doobie’s best year he was a top 20 goalie imo. Not more.

  125. Woodguy v2.0 says:

    NYC-Back-to-Tokyo Oil (Gentleman Backpacker): If they cost the same, I’d probably agree. But Neuvirth has one more year at 2.5m vs Hutch expiring contract, not to mention the cost to acquire. Hutch shouldn’t cost Slepyshev.

    Yeah, that’s important. He’s killing the AHL this year.

    I bet WPG would rather move on from Mason.

    $4.1 x 2.

    Lordy

  126. Seismic Source says:

    Give the start to Ellis. Young unproven kid comes into the NHL and his adrenaline alone runs him a hot streak. It’s happened more than once.

  127. frjohnk says:

    Cassandra: Nurse is getting more than 4.5.

    Benning is getting more than 1.

    Davidson and Gryba are at 2.3 M right now.If Davidson plays well enough to keep that is going up as well.

    You are short at least 3 million in your estimates.

    Like I have mentioned before, Nurse is getting $5M if not more.

    If people are looking at “lack of offense”

    Nurse has 10 points in 27 games, that is a 30 point pace over 82 games
    Last year he had 11 points in 44 games. Which is 20 point pace over 82 games

    Looking at some of the advanced stats
    For Dmen he is
    3rd in 127 shot attempts
    2nd in 9 individual high danger shots
    Also among the league leaders in controlled zone exits by skating the puck out.

    I agree with Pouzar, if he can develop a shot, he will be that 5 tool Dman that the coaches said he could become.

  128. Lowetide says:

    Cassandra: This is, of course, true.However, we aren’t talking about what makes sense.We are talking about what Chiarelli will do.

    Meh. Trading Klefbom instead of Russell (or Sekera) means your problem comes back and it doesn’t need to. I understand the idea of framing things as Chia is dumb, but trading Klefbom at his salary and age makes very little sense. Unless you’re getting value equal and that’s a tough thing to find. Oscar’s contract is a great one.

  129. Pouzar says:

    Woodguy v2.0,

    Glad I asked the question then. 🙂

    Thx for the analysis!

  130. frjohnk says:

    Russell on pace for 36 points!!!

  131. leadfarmer says:

    Woodguy v2.0: Yeah, that’s important.He’s killing the AHL this year.

    I best WPG would rather move on from Mason.

    $4.1 x 2.

    Lordy

    I think its funny to hear people on here praise Chevaldayoffs name. He’s literally done nothing other than having to trade Kane

  132. OilArt says:

    Quick question for you guys,

    what time does the arena open tomorrow? I can’t find anything online.

    Driving in from saskatoon for our first rogers place game and my daughter really wants to look around before the game. Any advice would be appreciated.

  133. who says:

    leadfarmer: I think its funny to hear people on here praise Chevaldayoffs name.He’s literally done nothing other than having to trade Kane

    Sometimes drafting well and doing nothing (exercising patience) is the best course of action.
    Point to a hole in their lineup he should fix.
    He could blown things up the last few years with some knee jerk trades. I’m sure a lot of Jets fans were screaming for him to do something.
    Probably a good lesson in there for Chia this season.

  134. Cassandra says:

    Lowetide: Meh. Trading Klefbom instead of Russell (or Sekera) means your problem comes back and it doesn’t need to. I understand the idea of framing things as Chia is dumb, but trading Klefbom at his salary and age makes very little sense. Unless you’re getting value equal and that’s a tough thing to find. Oscar’s contract is a great one.

    Correct me if I am wrong, but neither Sekera or Russell can be traded for two seasons. If the position of strength is LHD, it is Klefbom or nobody.

  135. hunter1909 says:

    Watched the last 10 mins of last night’s game in Cowtown and was amazed…

    I hate to say it but Johnny Hockey can actually play the game. He might not be able to power through the opposition like Taylor Hall, but he’s shifty and ha ha he tried the exact same shot that scored against LB last time the Oilers played.

    The Flames are not a good team, but they’re not terrible. Personally I like the idea of both Alberta teams being premiere, with the 80’s Oilers dominance over the 80’s Flames…although I’d be more than willing to say Oilers only win 4 cups to the Flames 1 next time.

  136. Surrey Oiler says:

    OilArt:
    Quick question for you guys,

    what time does the arena open tomorrow? I can’t find anything online.

    Driving in from saskatoon for our first rogers place game and my daughter really wants to look around before the game. Any advice would be appreciated.

    I went to Sens/Oilers game this year, I believe it’s 1 hour before puck drop. The arena is amazing and lots of good food and Oilers gear to buy if you wish.

  137. Woodguy v2.0 says:

    OriginalPouzar: Very happy with the college free agent goaltending signings.

    First Ellis then Starett – good arrows on these tenders.

    I’ve said many times that the goalie conveyor belt is in the best shape under Chiarellli than it has been since Fuhr and Moog were prospects.

  138. Woodguy v2.0 says:

    LMHF#1:
    WG – what’s the issue with flipping a late pick for Hutchinson as insurance?

    .951 in the AHL is nothing to sneeze at – no?

    Yeah, I didn’t realize the contract issue at the time.

    That makes Hutchinson more attractive for sure.

    Neuvirth has a better NHL track record and that means more to me than AHL numbers, but a .951 is nothing to sneeze at in any league, especially that one where the best goalies tend to have higher NHL SV% due to less high end looks per game.

  139. Pouzar says:

    frjohnk: Nurse has 10 points in 27 games, that is a 30 point pace over 82 games

    And that’s all at Even Strength…based on last years numbers that’s Top 14.

  140. Woodguy v2.0 says:

    Pouzar: Does Chevy do trades?

    Only big ones.

  141. hunter1909 says:

    Cassandra: Correct me if I am wrong, but neither Sekera or Russell can be traded for two seasons.If the position of strength is LHD, it is Klefbom or nobody.

    Ain’t it amazing how so many fans constantly yack it up re trading away perfectly decent players ala Klefbom?

    As in: How’s about focussing on the reality?…which in the case of the Oilers is…a team that last season did pretty good, and this season are struggling to replicate the same results in a universe that no longer laughs them off prior to game time.

    However, as a recent Calgary bandwagon flame fan I can attest to the fact that the Oilers are indeed still a pretty decent hockey team…easily top 10 in the NHL…

    As for the prospects. How about JP? He put on a 1st period clinic last game. RW = solved

    They’re seriously in need of a new goalie, but otherwise I’m personally happy to watch this team gel over the rest of a still to be played for 2/3 of the season(which includes the all-important February onward portion which as anyone who understands hockey knows, is the REAL NHL season.

    I’d like to thank you for giving me the opportunity to write this.

  142. Woodguy v2.0 says:

    leadfarmer: I’d prefer Grubauer over both. You can run him until Talbot gets back and still trade him at the deadline to get some cost back.Neuvirths 2.5 mil next year kills it for me.Unless Philly retains or takes Russell back with us retaining.

    Grubauer and Dell (SJS) are better than more than a few starters.

  143. Pouzar says:

    leadfarmer: I think its funny to hear people on here praise Chevaldayoffs name.He’s literally done nothing other than having to trade Kane

    Not foolin me unless he is also the head scout. Those F***ers don’t miss a pick.

  144. John Chambers says:

    Cassandra: Correct me if I am wrong, but neither Sekera or Russell can be traded for two seasons.If the position of strength is LHD, it is Klefbom or nobody.

    Oooh oooh! I pick nobody!

    The Oilers should be building their McDavid-era defense around Nurse, Larsson, and Klefbom.

  145. hunter1909 says:

    Woodguy v2.0: Only big ones.

    Say, what about getting Kassian down to the wood store for an in store?

    That means = an in-store appearance. Call CHED and have them cover it. Call Don Metz and offer him exclusive video rights. In other words, be creative.

    It might not make 100% perfect business sense, but then again any successful business can always use a few laughs from time to time. Also, my brain is of the sort that can actually envision great publicity. And as most people know, publicity is for the most part always fun to get.

    Like that 60’s tv show Mission Impossible…please accept that this message at least SHOULD self destruct 30 seconds after you read it.

  146. frjohnk says:

    Pouzar: Not foolin me unless he is also the head scout. Those F***ers don’t miss a pick.

    You talkin bout the Jets again?

    If Oilers faceplant, I’ll save you a spot on the wagon.

  147. hunter1909 says:

    Woodguy v2.0: I’ve said many times that the goalie conveyor belt is in the best shape under Chiarellli than it has been since Fuhr and Moog were prospects.

    With all due respect, did you see the third period last game?

  148. Pouzar says:

    Woodguy v2.0: Only big ones.

    Outside of Kane and Ladd where his hand was forced I can’t think of any big ones.

  149. Pouzar says:

    frjohnk: I’ll save you a spot on the wagon.

    Does the wagon serve alcohol?

  150. Side says:

    hunter1909: With all due respect, did you see the third period last game?

    2016 – 2017, 8 games played, LB posted a .928 save %, with 1.99 GA
    2017 – 2018, 8 games played, LB so far has a .872 save % and 3.81 GA

    “but did you see the third period of last game?”

    LB is capable of being a better goalie than he showed in the third period.

    But people are already convinced he won’t even get picked up by a ECHL team.

    People are ridiculous.

  151. OriginalPouzar says:

    Talbot’s timeline hasn’t changed (around 2 weeks from the start) – he should be on the ice later this week.

    This is good news as the “at least two weeks, maybe longer” verbal has me thinking most of December.

  152. OriginalPouzar says:

    Oilers are 5th in the NHL at even strength goals.

    This is fantastic.

    Once we get the PP going, we could start rolling – the PP will come.

  153. frjohnk says:

    Pouzar: Does the wagon serve alcohol?

    serves and runs on alcohol

  154. OriginalPouzar says:

    Connor’s current illness has nothing to do with the first one – its completely separate.

    I guess the 2nd illness has gone through like 8 people (players/staff) but its a quick one 24-36 hours. They originally thought it was food poisoning but they’ve ruled that out.

    Good think its a quick one and Connor should be fine for tomorrow.

  155. Woodguy v2.0 says:

    frjohnk: Great!

    Looks like we got an injury prone D when we traded……

    Ha, couldnt resits.

    OH NO YOU DI’INT!!!

  156. russ99 says:

    John Chambers: Oooh oooh! I pick nobody!

    The Oilers should be building their McDavid-era defense around Nurse, Larsson, and Klefbom.

    Unless someone much better comes on the market, and is acquirable, like Doughty.

    Chia has been quoted that he wants a better player than what we have in the top pair. But let’s hold onto our cost-controlled guys until that comes to pass.

  157. hunter1909 says:

    Side: 2016 – 2017, 8 games played, LB posted a .928 save %, with 1.99 GA
    2017 – 2018, 8 games played, LB so far has a .872 save % and 3.81 GA

    “but did you see the third period of last game?”

    LB is capable of being a better goalie than he showed in the third period.

    But people are already convinced he won’t even get picked up by a ECHL team.

    People are ridiculous.

    I like goalies who keep their cool.

    I don’t like goalies that I have to worry about.

    You might turn out to be 100% correct.

    However, when a person shits the bed under pressure, in a way that has nothing to do with total inexperience, that person is overwhelmingly likely to have issues which have no hope of ever being solved.

    eg/ I’ve stated that I cannot stand the prospect Yamamoto. However, I am 100% happy to see what this kid does next season at training camp. The reason? He’s so young, he still has room/potential to grow and grow bigtime. For all I know he will prove me wrong.

    Please explain to me why LB is on the same tier as Yamamoto, for us giving him another chance when he was clearly out of his league last game.

    Oilers right now have no margin for error. Any player that can’t cut it in today’s climate MUST be cut from the team…just like a gangrene leg lol.

  158. OilArt says:

    Surrey Oiler,

    Thanks buddy

  159. OriginalPouzar says:

    Seismic Source:
    Give the start to Ellis. Young unproven kid comes into the NHL and his adrenaline alone runs him a hot streak. It’s happened more than once.

    He will likely get his chance during the back to backs this weekend.

  160. frjohnk says:

    Woodguy v2.0: OH NO YOU DI’INT!!!

    Ha. Just had to.

    My guess is that Larsson has a concussion.
    Upper body injury.
    “Tried to skate, but had a setback”

  161. russ99 says:

    I think the Oilers have made the right call starting Brossoit in the Flyers game.

    If it works out, it shows the team has confidence in him and he can build from there.
    If it doesn’t, we gave him a chance to turn it around.

    But I’d have him on a tight leash. If he’s throwing himself to areas he thinks the puck will be again and/or lets in an egregious softie, I’d pull him.

  162. russ99 says:

    frjohnk: Ha.Just had to.

    My guess is that Larsson has a concussion.
    Upper body injury.
    “Tried to skate, but had a setback”

    Yeah. Concussion or back. I’m hoping it’s concussion.

  163. OriginalPouzar says:

    Seismic Source:
    Give the start to Ellis. Young unproven kid comes into the NHL and his adrenaline alone runs him a hot streak. It’s happened more than once.

    He will likely get his chance during the back to backs this weekend.

    OilArt:
    Quick question for you guys,

    what time does the arena open tomorrow? I can’t find anything online.

    Driving in from saskatoon for our first rogers place game and my daughter really wants to look around before the game. Any advice would be appreciated.

    One hour prior to the start, so 6:30.

  164. John Chambers says:

    russ99: Unless someone big comes on the market, and is acquirable, like Doughty.

    Chia has been quoted that he wants a better player than what we have in the top pair. But let’s hold onto our cost-controlled guys until that comes to pass.

    The Oilers can’t afford a $9M defenseman. Unless they trade Draisaitl.

    Nurse – Larsson – Klefbom will provide the economy to offset the high cost of our core forwards. With Lucic, Chiarelli selected his luxury item, pushing the Oilers into a place where they need to obtain more value contracts, not fewer. This is why the Reinhart trade stings so much.

  165. hunter1909 says:

    Pouzar: Does the wagon serve alcohol?

    Incredible wit.

  166. russ99 says:

    John Chambers: Nurse – Larsson – Klefbom will provide the economy to offset the high cost of our core forwards. With Lucic, Chiarelli selected his luxury item, pushing the Oilers into a place where they need to obtain more value contracts, not fewer. This is why the Reinhart trade stings so much.

    Well, unless “keep Nuge at all costs” is assumed part of the high cost of the core forwards.

    Something has to give somewhere. Either we’ll need a higher priced D or a higher priced RW. We can’t assume youth/value contracts will add the talent needed to make a legitimate challenge to the cup.

  167. hunter1909 says:

    John Chambers: The Oilers can’t afford a $9M defenseman. Unless they trade Draisaitl.

    Nurse – Larsson – Klefbom will provide the economy to offset the high cost of our core forwards. With Lucic, Chiarelli selected his luxury item, pushing the Oilers into a place where they need to obtain more value contracts, not fewer. This is why the Reinhart trade stings so much.

    If Nurse develops, and JP turns out to be the real deal…

    methinks everything is going to be alright.

  168. hunter1909 says:

    russ99: Well, unless “keep Nuge at all costs” is assumed part of the high cost of the core forwards.

    I hope they keep Nuge…just to show the other ex-Oilers what they’re missing.

  169. hunter1909 says:

    russ99:
    I think the Oilers have made the right call starting Brossoit in the Flyers game.

    If it works out, it shows the team has confidence in him and he can build from there.
    If it doesn’t, we gave him a chance to turn it around.

    But I’d have him on a tight leash. If he’s throwing himself to areas he thinks the puck will be again and/or lets in an egregious softie, I’d pull him.

    I’d love to waive LB(lol) but on the other hand I saw how the 2006 cup finalists compensated for Jussi Markkennen and nearly pulled of a miracle on ice.

    In short, i believe teams need to be able to compensate for their weaknesses. Otherwise, they’re simply “Oil Change” level assholes lol

  170. Side says:

    hunter1909: I like goalies who keep their cool.

    I don’t like goalies that I have to worry about.

    You might turn out to be 100% correct.

    However, when a person shits the bed under pressure, in a way that has nothing to do with total inexperience, that person is overwhelmingly likely to have issues which have no hope of ever being solved.

    eg/ I’ve stated that I cannot stand the prospect Yamamoto. However, I am 100% happy to see what this kid does next season at training camp. The reason? He’s so young, he still has room/potential to grow and grow bigtime. For all I know he will prove me wrong.

    LB has shown he has some great games in him, some good games in him, and some terrible games in him. I think his issue is a lack of consistency. I don’t see him as a broken goalie who can’t turn this around.

    And I disagree with LB being pulled in the third period against Calgary as some people have mentioned.

    Pulling LB sends a message to him that they don’t think he can win the game for them. Then putting in Nick Ellis is risky, especially when the whole game is on the rookie’s shoulders and the Flames already had a TON of momentum in that game. I could only imagine how Ellis would feel coming in cold, and then losing the game for the Oilers. Great, now you potentially have 2 goalies who had their confidence rattled.

    Playing LB against the Flyers is a good call, imo. They’re a team that just came off a 10 game losing streak, and their win against the Flames wasn’t exactly a result of a dominant performance for the whole game.

    If LB is rattled from the last game, the Oilers will know it in the first period. If he coughs up some easy goals early on, then pull him and try out Ellis.

  171. Pescador says:

    Pouzar: Does the wagon serve alcohol?

    And how! Why do you think I fell off?

  172. Lowetide says:

    Cassandra: Correct me if I am wrong, but neither Sekera or Russell can be traded for two seasons.If the position of strength is LHD, it is Klefbom or nobody.

    You can get players to waive contracts and the Oilers can run Russell as 7D for a year if necessary. Russell and Sekera are older players, Klefbom/Nurse/Larsson/Benning are not. Keep the youngsters and the defensive issues can be solved for a long time.

  173. John Chambers says:

    russ99,

    I think Chiarelli’s plan around internal development is sound, and feel that when healthy this team should be a lock to make the playoffs with their core players.

    They can’t afford to carry the cost of an elite winger or top-flight defender over the entire season but they can likely trade for them st the deadline.

    Depending on how the next couple of months go we either have a really attractive draft pick to trade for Marchessault, or we get a good pick for Maroon, draft a good dman, and have assets to trade to rent Doughty in 2019.

    The GM has to know when to go for it and when to keep his powder dry.

  174. Pescador says:

    hunter1909: I hope they keep Nuge…just to show the other ex-Oilers what they’re missing.

    At the moment that would only be the draft lottery, save for Yak

  175. Pouzar says:

    frjohnk: serves and runs on alcohol

    mmmmm….sounds good….I’ll have that!

  176. Woodguy v2.0 says:

    hunter1909: Say, what about getting Kassian down to the wood store for an in store?

    That means = an in-store appearance. Call CHED and have them cover it. Call Don Metz and offer him exclusive video rights. In other words, be creative.

    It might not make 100% perfect business sense, but then again any successful business can always use a few laughs from time to time. Also, my brain is of the sort that can actually envision great publicity. And as most people know, publicity is for the most part always fun to get.

    Like that 60’s tv show Mission Impossible…please accept that this message at least SHOULD self destruct 30 seconds after you read it.

    When the public finds their way into our shop we usually give them address to our dealers.

    Wholesale only.

  177. Woodguy v2.0 says:

    hunter1909: With all due respect, did you see the third period last game?

    Conveyor best Hunter, not last game’s starter.

    Chia brought in: Talbot, Ellis, Starett, Skinner and Wells.

    Most of them are doing very well in their respective leagues this year (NHL, AHL, ECHL, OHL, WHL)

    Conveyor belt.

  178. Woodguy v2.0 says:

    Pouzar: Outside of Kane and Ladd where his hand was forced I can’t think of any big ones.

    Yup

  179. Pescador says:

    Lowetide: You can get players to waive contracts and the Oilers can run Russell as 7D for a year if necessary. Russell and Sekera are older players, Klefbom/Nurse/Larsson/Benning are not. Keep the youngsters and the defensive issues can be solved for a long time.

    The players you mention are or will be the top 6 for next season, hopefully Talbot will be Talbot & this a playoff caliber d-core. I believe it to be a good one at that.
    Now about that LW…

  180. Dicky94 says:

    hunter1909,

    Just wondering if you will be jumping on the Flyers wagon tomorrow night? Maybe try wearing some Cooperalls to really get into it?

  181. McSorley33 says:

    Thinker,

    Sekera is, as was discussed at the time of his signing, a stop gap until the dmen arrived. Now that they have, it’s time to look at moving him to fill a need. This would be the year to do it, as we aren’t competing for the cup anyway. Only problem is if he comes back and struggles. Then you might have to hold him for another year, and I’m not sure where that leads. You never know, someone at the deadline might take russell…
    *****************************************************************************************************
    I had the same thought. Not because I necessarily want to, but from an asset managment
    perspective.

    Sekera turns 32 this summer and is coming off major surgery.

    How much elite hockey does he have left?

    Just once, it would be nice for the oilers to obtain more than full value on an aging player.

  182. JimmyV1965 says:

    John Chambers: Agreed with spending the resource to acquire Hutchinson, as he at least has NHL experience. And with an expiring contract, the man has a reason to perform.

    As for Nurse he’s in the category of good young NHL defensemen, but hasn’t shown the offense to merit >$5M. If the Oilers can get 7-8 years at $4.5 – $4.8M then they should. As a poster above suggested, if Nurse’s agent plays hardball they should bridge him like the Jets did with Trouba, and make him earn the big contract after a couple of extreme value years.

    My concern with this is the Oilers assume all the downside. Right now, Trouba is having a terrible year offensively. When he hits the open market he could still command $6 mill a year, even if his numbers remain the same.

  183. Cassandra says:

    John Chambers: Oooh oooh! I pick nobody!

    The Oilers should be building their McDavid-era defense around Nurse, Larsson, and Klefbom.

    This is my answer as well. However, if the Oilers don’t rebound and make the playoffs there is no chance that Chiarellli comes back with the same roster.

    That means trade nobody isn’t one of the options. Trading Larsson or Sekera isn’t one of the options. They love Nurse more than Pouzar.

    That leaves Klefbom, or RNH, or both.

  184. who says:

    Cassandra: This is my answer as well.However, if the Oilers don’t rebound and make the playoffs there is no chance that Chiarellli comes back with the same roster.

    That means trade nobody isn’t one of the options.Trading Larsson or Sekera isn’t one of the options.They love Nurse more than Pouzar.

    That leaves Klefbom, or RNH, or both.

    Why wouldn’t he come back with the same roster? That is the correct move.
    Refer back to my previous post about the Jets. That’s what they did and it seems to be working out pretty good. Sometimes you have to have a little faith in the players you have and give the kids time to develop and fill in the holes.

  185. Cassandra says:

    Lowetide: You can get players to waive contracts and the Oilers can run Russell as 7D for a year if necessary. Russell and Sekera are older players, Klefbom/Nurse/Larsson/Benning are not. Keep the youngsters and the defensive issues can be solved for a long time.

    I generally agree. However, who is trading for Sekera even if he waives his NMC. That is a huge what if.

    And doing nothing is not going to be an option. The math on your chart is inexorable. Bringing everyone back except for Maroon, while adding no one of significance, is going to cost around 80 M.

    If the Oilers don’t make the playoffs coming back with the same roster more or less minus Maroon is not going to be one of Chiarelli’s options. That means a dramatic trade involving Klefbom or RNH or both.

    It isn’t what I would do. But it is what Chiarelli will do. It is inescapable.

  186. hunter1909 says:

    Dicky94:
    hunter1909,

    Just wondering if you will be jumping on the Flyers wagon tomorrow night? Maybe try wearing some Cooperalls to really get into it?

    I’m from the Ed Van Impe school.

    man, those cooperalls sure blew, or what?

    Still, the boys did do a great job last night, breaking their losing streak, and beating Calgary.

  187. John Chambers says:

    Cassandra,

    The difference is they value RNH and Klef while they didn’t value Schultz, Yakupov, or Eberle. Or Barzal … tee hee.

  188. Cassandra says:

    who: Why wouldn’t he come back with the same roster? That is the correct move.
    Refer back to my previous post about the Jets. That’s what they did and it seems to be working out pretty good. Sometimes you have to have a little faith in the players you have and give the kids time to develop and fill in the holes.

    I agree it is more, or less, the correct move.

    It was also the correct move after McDavid’s first year. Sign Demers, do nothing drastic. Instead, Chiarelli traded Hall for Larsson and signed Lucic.

    Despite the rhetoric about filling holes internally, Chiarelli also didn’t follow the stay the course logic this season. He gave Eberle (a top quality forward) away and paid for someone to take Pouliot (a solid NHL player)

    Doing nothing is not what Chiarelli does.

  189. hunter1909 says:

    Just in case Maroon’s agent has delusions of grandeur…

    I seriously hope they trade Maroon to some sucker team…Maroon’s a 15 goal man outside McDavid’s orbit.

    And I’m a bigtime Maroon fan.

  190. GMB3 says:

    Surrey Oiler:
    NYC-Back-to-Tokyo Oil (Gentleman Backpacker),

    LB would clear waivers in ECHL, he’s done bud

    Yeah and trading Evander Kane for Drai would be a great idea! Sorry bud, you’re nuts

  191. hunter1909 says:

    John Chambers:
    Cassandra,

    The difference is they value RNH and Klef while they didn’t value Schultz, Yakupov, or Eberle. Or Barzal … tee hee.

    Just imagine if they had the internet in the 1980s…

    Every team passing on Messier…

  192. Surrey Oiler says:

    hunter1909: I’d love to waive LB(lol) but on the other hand I saw how the 2006 cup finalists compensated for Jussi Markkennen and nearly pulled of a miracle on ice.

    In short, i believe teams need to be able to compensate for their weaknesses. Otherwise, they’re simply “Oil Change” level assholes lol

    LB couldn’t tie Jussi’s skates, putting LB in net means Oilers better be scoring more than 6 goals or else chalk up a loss. I’ve never been more disappointed at Chia more than this. The season is on the line and we have pilon on net? FFS

  193. flea says:

    What are the odds that John Carlson hits the open market? Washington already has 3 $5M d men in Niskanen, Orlov and Orpik. Their cap situation isn’t that dire but Carlson is going to want $6M plus.

    I feel they’d try to move one of those other three guys before letting Carlson walk, but the clock is ticking to get a deal done.

    Carlson would be a near perfect fit in Edmonton

    Nurse – Carlson
    Klefbom – Larsson
    Sekera – Russell
    Benning or Davidson/Gryba

    Thats a championship caliber defence in my opinion. But it means that Nuge is prob gone on the top end to make the money work.

  194. OriginalPouzar says:

    Last I checked, Carlson is leading the league in ice time – he’s a 1st paring minute muncher and a UFA.

    If we are throwing numbers around like $5.5M for Darnell Nurse coming off his ELC then the number for Carlson will be well north of $6M.

  195. hunter1909 says:

    Surrey Oiler: LB couldn’t tie Jussi’s skates, putting LB in net means Oilers better be scoring more than 6 goals or else chalk up a loss. I’ve never been more disappointed at Chia more than this. The season is on the line and we have pilon on net? FFS

    I 100% agree…but this makes us both virtual heretics on this blog.

  196. hunter1909 says:

    Personally I’d sooner have Bruce McCurdy playing goal than LB.

    Think of the post-game comments…

  197. Surrey Oiler says:

    hunter1909,

    So many weaknesses in LB’s game, from how deep he plays, to his awful rebound control, to pucks going through him, to no confidence. The worst goalie I’ve seen in Oiler silks ever, and he’s our goalie tomorrow vs Flyers?

  198. Professor Q says:

    hunter1909:
    Personally I’d sooner have Bruce McCurdy playing goal than LB.

    Think of the post-game comments…

    They’d be astronomical.

  199. Thinker says:

    I think our defence is already championship calibre, it’s just not top of the league. Problem is goaltending has been horawful and the forwards are ridiculously top heavy and underpowered overall. You need 2.5 of those 3 to be elite. Right now, we score maybe a 1.5/3.

Newer Comments »

Leave a Reply

Want to join the discussion?
Feel free to contribute!

Leave a Reply

© Copyright - Lowetide.ca