Quarter Moon in a 10-cent Town

The elephant in the room, the thing we’re going to discuss for the rest of this winter, is the following: Secretly, in our heart of hearts, we honestly thought Connor McDavid could pull any dead horse across the line. The shame of it? Management appears to have thought the same. In August, I run the RE series by player and overall, giving a line in the sand, an estimate for success. This season has been a frustrating journey, but it’s just one-third of the way to completion. One hopes for a better second leg.

  • RE 17-18 GF-GA estimate through 28 games: 88-74 (+14)
  • Actual 17-18 GF-GA through 28 games: 80-95 (-15)

Edmonton is down by eight goals for and by 21 goals against, my estimates off by an incredible 29 goals. There are hits, there are misses, and there’s whatever the hell this is.

THE ATHLETIC!

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RE FORWARDS 17-18 (SO FAR)

  • The top line is off the mark by a large margin (97 and 29) but I’d suggest much of that has to do with illness and injury. Part of the gap is surely via the power play. Maroon is right on time.
  • Milan Lucic and the Nuge are ahead of their RE, Puljujarvi only slightly behind. Encouraging signs and possibly a positive amongst much that is negative in a season outside the playoffs.
  • The Ryan Strome line is off by three or four goals, although Drake Caggiula is ahead of the curve a little courtesy quality time with McDavid. He has benefited from Strome’s struggles in a feature role.
  • The Mark Letestu line gives us the two most pleasant surprises among forwards, Letestu himself and young Jujhar Khaira. Kassian mostly covers his bet.

RE DEFENSE 17-18 (SO FAR)

  • Oscar Klefbom is way off the path I suggested he would be on, injuries are the culprit here and one doubts many will kick up a fuss about that assessment. Adam Larsson is within the range.
  • Darnell Nurse is ahead of the projection and it should be mentioned those numbers are hard earned on the 5×5. Kris Russell is the single biggest offensive surprise this season. That won’t go well but my projections weren’t deliberately shy. Matt Benning is off the pace a little, I surrounded Eric Gryba (not difficult) and Yohann Auvitu (slightly more difficult).

RE GOALIES 17-18 (SO FAR)

  • Cam Talbot’s early season performance is the single biggest drag on the roster, Laurent Brossoit ranks No. 3 behind Talbot and Oscar Klefbom in the category.
  • Penalty kill is part of this debacle for sure and that’s a shared enemy with skaters. This isn’t good.
  • Nick Ellis probably gets a start on the weekend.
  • Miles to go.

LOWDOWN WITH LOWETIDE

A busy morning as we finish the week, beginning at 10 on TSN1260. Scheduled to appear:

  • Steve Lansky, BigMouth Sports. Is the Oilers season over? What went wrong?
  • Paul Sir, The Basketball Show. NCAA season well underway, 76ers making moves.
  • Joey Alfieri, TSN 690. The Montreal Canadiens are a different team with Carey Price in goal.
  • Paul Almeida, SSE. Who pays for this miserable season?

10-1260 text, @Lowetide on twitter. See you on the radio!

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212 Responses to "Quarter Moon in a 10-cent Town"

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  1. JD_Sigh says:

    The next time McDavid blows past the defenders like a house on the side of the road, a few of us will wonder if it’s appreciating or depreciating.

    Fewer still will wonder if they mean the house or McDavid.

  2. treevojo says:

    Lowetide: He bought a house.

    Well hopefully that house gets internet soon.

    Cause he would have been gold in this thread.

  3. Side says:

    VOR:
    It is a straw man because you are incapable of grasping that the house is simply a way of easily explaining how an asset can appreciate and depreciate at the same time. I said, “It is exactly like a house.” From context that “it” clearly relates to the phenomenon of appreciation and depreciation. You are the one who keeps insisting I compared houses and human beings in terms of how they appreciate and depreciate. I said no such thing. You seem deeply committed to the idea I compared McDavid to a house which I never did. You keep attacking an argument I never made. That makes your argument a classic straw man.

    “McDavid is exactly like a house in that he appreciates and depreciates”

    “Humans don’t depreciate like houses do… houses depreciate as soon as they are built, humans physical abilities cause their value to appreciate until they peak, at which point they depreciate which is why it’s silly to say they depreciate, like a house.”

    “CLASSIC.

    STRAW.

    MAN.

    ARGUMENT.”

    I am truly baffled, here.

    I feel like a year has deteriorated off my life. My life is depreciating before my eyes…….. like a house.

  4. treevojo says:

    Side: “McDavid is exactly like a house in that he appreciates and depreciates”

    “Humans don’t depreciate like houses do… houses depreciate as soon as they are built, humans physical abilities cause their value to appreciate until they peak, at which point they depreciate which is why it’s silly to say they depreciate, like a house.”

    “CLASSIC.

    STRAW.

    MAN.

    ARGUMENT.”

    I am truly baffled, here.

    I feel like a year has deteriorated off my life. My life is depreciating before my eyes…….. like a house.

    Or like Lucic.

    Cause everybody knows that guy is only worth an 8th round pick this year.

  5. Side says:

    treevojo: Or like Lucic.

    Cause everybody knows that guy is only worth an 8th round pick this year.

    So I wonder, if Lucic is not worth a 7th round pick like Cassandra says… if Peter Chiarelli trades Lucic for a 7th round pick or lower (6th, 5th, etc.), would that prove players DO appreciate in value and also that Lucic is worth a 7th round pick? Making Cassandra doubly wrong?

    Now I know what I want for Christmas…

  6. JD_Sigh says:

    Side: Now I know what I want for Christmas…

    A Snuggie?

  7. VOR says:

    Side,

    You misrepresented my argument. And you misquoted me repeatedly. Then you tried to prove something I never argued and never said was wrong. That is the essence of a straw man argument.

    As for all the people who responded with humor thanks for confirming that appreciation and depreciation of hockey players is an important idea and one worth pursuing.

  8. VOR says:

    I am thinking indeterminate curves for appreciation and depreciation of hockey players could be a powerful new tool for GMs to use in roster building and contract negotiations.

  9. Side says:

    VOR:
    Side,

    You misrepresented my argument. And you misquoted me repeatedly. Then you tried to prove something I never argued and never said was wrong. That is the essence of a straw man argument.

    As for all the people who responded with humor thanks for confirming that appreciation and depreciation of hockey players is an important idea and one worth pursuing.

    You said it was “exactly” like a house. I said it was not. If you don’t want people to misinterpret your argument and use the words you said against you, I recommend not using such absolute statements that could cause this issue.

    I also commented more on the meat of what you had to say about players both appreciating and depreciating before our eyes, and you wanted to just keep repeating straw man.

    That’s fine. We don’t have to agree.

  10. Side says:

    JD_Sigh: A Snuggie?

    Also that. I could wear it and watch the Oilers AND my house depreciate in comfort.

  11. OriginalPouzar says:

    Couple of fun games against historic franchises coming up this weekend.

    Couple new faces in the lineup tonight plus the return of Slep (likely).

    Go Oilers!

  12. Professor Q says:

    Side: “McDavid is exactly like a house in that he appreciates and depreciates”

    “Humans don’t depreciate like houses do… houses depreciate as soon as they are built, humans physical abilities cause their value to appreciate until they peak, at which point they depreciate which is why it’s silly to say they depreciate, like a house.”

    “CLASSIC.

    STRAW.

    MAN.

    ARGUMENT.”

    I am truly baffled, here.

    I feel like a year has deteriorated off my life. My life is depreciating before my eyes…….. like a house.

    This is certainly something I can appreciate.

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