Changing of the Guard

The Edmonton Oilers played a fantastic first period against the Nashville Predators last night, outshooting their opponent 22-4 but not managing to score. NaturalStatTrick had the HDSC’s in the first 20 minutes at 4-1, that seems about right. In the second period, Nashville outchanced Edmonton in HD’s 4-2 and scored on every damned one. I agree there should have been penalties, I agree luck loves country music, but I don’t think fans should fret about last night’s loss. The Toronto game was far more frustrating to my eye, that was a game Edmonton should have won going away. Last night? The first period should have been more kind, the referees are clearly sending a message to Connor McDavid (“we could call a penalty on every shift, so we’re not going to call any”) but this team has enough holes to lose a game they play well in. Surely we can agree on this statement.

THE ATHLETIC!

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LONG DECEMBER, YEAR OVER YEAR

  • December 2015: 6-0-0, goal differential +7
  • December 2016: 2-1-3, goal differential +1
  • December 2017: 3-3-0, goal differential +4

Not much change here, this year’s team is about as effective as last year’s, with the 2015 club absolutely lashing opponents for the team’s 14th win in 31 games. Of course, that Oilers team would win just 17 of the final 51 games—something the 2017-18 group should easily cover.

AFTER 32, YEAR OVER YEAR

  • Oilers 15-16: 14-16-2, goal differential -11
  • Oilers 16-17: 15-12-5, goal differential +7
  • Oilers 17-18: 13-17-2, goal differential -11

I figure this out in the minutes and hours after each game, and it’s stunning how that damned rut from two years ago hangs around like a virus (as a comparable). It’s damned difficult to turn a season around, it’s like a death march even getting to “fake .500” (which would be represented by 17-17-2, above). A day game in Minnesota beckons, like a loaded gun in 110 degree heat the day you lost your job, your wife left you and the dog ran away.

WHAT TO EXPECT FROM DECEMBER

  • On the road to: Calgary (Expected: 0-0-1) (Actual: 1-0-0)
  • At home to: Philadelphia (Expected 1-0-0) (Actual: 0-1-0)
  • On the road to: Montreal, Toronto, Columbus (Expected 1-2-0) (Actual 2-1-0)
  • At home to: Nashville (Expected 0-1-0) (Actual 0-1-0)
  • On the road to: Minnesota (Expected 1-0-0) (Actual 0-0-0)
  • At home to: San Jose, St. Louis, Montreal (Expected 1-1-1) (Actual 0-0-0)
  • On the road to: Winnipeg (Expected 0-1-0) (Actual 0-0-0)
  • At home to: Chicago, Winnipeg (Expected 1-1-0) (Actual 0-0-0)
  • Overall expected result: 5-6-2, 12 points in 13 games 
  • Current results: 3-3-0, six points in six games

The Oilers are performing as I predicted, it’s a 2-3-2 step from here through the end of the month. I’m sympathetic to the toughness of schedule, while also realizing the “free bingo square” so far this season has been the Oilers on their home ice. Lordy.

DEFENSE, LAST NIGHT

  • Davidson-Auvitu went 24-9 together in 13:27 together, 3-1 in HD’s. Went 10-2 with McDavid’s line, went 8-3 against Aberg-Jarnkrok-Forsberg. This pairing played less at 5×5 than the other two, Todd McLellan’s not going to keep doing that if these two keep delivering 75 percent Corsi.
  • Nurse-Russell went 22-13 together in 15:34 together, 3-1 in HD’s. Went 11-5 with 97, 9-8 against Bonino-Johansen-Arvidsson. There was a strange sequence in the third period where Nurse drove down low in the offensive zone on the rh side and backhanded it net front—to Kris Russell in the slot. Strahnge. Nurse was on the ice for three goals against last night.
  • Klefbom-Benning went 8-21 in 13:21 together, 1-5 in HD’s. This pairing was saloon doors to my eye, not much finesse from two guys who can do some things with the puck. Went 5-7 with McDavid, 3-11 against Aberg-Jarnkrok-Forsberg. If Larsson’s back Saturday, I’d put him here.
  • Edmonton received 23 shots from defensemen, 23 from forwards.
  • Laurent Brossoit stopped 19 of 23, .826. He has not earned an NHL job during this period where Cam Talbot has been unavailable; that’s my opinion.
  • NaturalStatTrick and NHL.com.

FORWARDS, LAST NIGHT

  • Maroon-Nuge-Cammalleri went 15-8, 2-0 in HDSC’s. Went 6-3 against Subban and had good possession numbers against most opponents but were 2-5 against Aberg-Jarnkrok-Forsberg. I like the line. Nuge is having a good year and Cammalleri was a good find.
  • Lucic-McDavid-Puljujarvi were 21-13 (McDavid-Puljujarvi) and 15-13 (McDavid-Lucic) with another 4-0 McDavid-Slepyshev and 3-1 McDavid-Khaira. Folks, we’re going to see ML moving off this line soon, no doubt in my mind. I’m a fan of the big man, but passes have to be concise or they just bounce off of him now. Slepy, Khaira or maybe Caggiula could replace him, but it’s probably going to be Maroon. Trio went 9-6 against Johansen line. McDavid took a frustration penalty in a bad spot, that probably comes from getting the squeeze from officials. I can’t blame him, but he put his team in a tough spot. Puljujarvi had some 10-bell chances, just a little shy on getting there in time. He’s coming along nicely.
  • Khaira-Draisaitl-Strome were 12-9 together, I thought Khaira was the most effective player on the line. Leon took a weird hit early but kept his feet moving. He played just 11:47 at 5×5, not enough. Went 4-0 against Bonino-Johansen-Arvidsson.
  • Slepyshev-Letestu-Kassian were 14-16 together, Slepy moved up the dial for a time. I like this line, would keep them together if the other three trios are firing.

LEON

If you look at last night’s lines and run 5×5 scoring/60 for the last 10 games, you get this:

  • Lucic (1.75)—McDavid (2.77)—Puljujarvi (2.83)
  • Maroon (1.96)—Nuge (1.48)—Cammalleri (2.29)
  • Khaira (3.33)—Draisaitl (0.48)—Strome (1.49)
  • Slepyshev (0.95)—Letestu (3.22)—Kassian (3.00)
  • NaturalStatTrick

What’s up with Leon? He hasn’t looked right for awhile, expect for flashes. I thought he and Strome performed well together in the Boston game, mentioned he was laboring against the Coyotes, seemed flat against the Leafs, had a breakaway against the Flames (didn’t cash), played a strong game against Philly, had some jump against Montreal, a strong game against Toronto (ravaged a post on the power play), faster boots and good decisions against Columbus, you saw last night. The big man has been like his team all year: Consistently inconsistent.

KHAIRA VERSUS LUCIC VERSUS MAROON VERSUS CAGGIULA VERSUS SLEPY

At some point this morning, I believe Todd McLellan will back his car out of the garage, hit “shuffle” on his CD player and listen to Boston, Foreigner, BTO, Garth and Reba on the way to work (note: This is an estimation, I don’t know if he likes those artists, and maybe he’s figured out how to hook up his phone to that contraption dammit stupid frack).

Once he gets to the rink, I think he’s going to hit shuffle again. BTO moves from the McDavid line to Leon’s line, MFSB to the McDavid line, and maybe Foreigner to the Nuge line. I think Khaira is the wild card, he could end up anywhere.

JUJHAR KHAIRA

Sometimes events conspire and allow a small ray of light to the role player. The Edmonton Oilers keep moving Jujhar Khaira up the depth chart and he keeps outplaying alternatives. Could we see him with Nuge? If Patrick Maroon moves up to the McDavid line (I think it’s inevitable) and Lucic moves down to help Leon (also a strong possibility), then Khaira would be the most likely candidate for Nuge-Cammalleri. It’s been surreal.

LOWDOWN WITH LOWETIDE

A big show this morning, lots to discuss beginning at 10 on TSN1260:

  • Steve Lansky, BigMouthSports. Star Wars! Plus Oilers.
  • Sarah McLellan Star Tribune. Those Minnesota Wild.
  • Matt Iwanyk, TSN1260. Point Counter Point on the Oilers: Is the coach safe? GM? Who’s leaving?
  • Frank Seravalli, TSN. Could Cam Talbot’s return be the turning point of the season?

10-1260 text, @Lowetide on twitter. Talk soon!

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161 Responses to "Changing of the Guard"

  1. zatch says:

    Can someone please explain the attraction of Drake to me? Guy seems to be a 3rd line type, and not a stunning one at that. He’s 23 and I don’t see much improvement inbound. Yet there seems to be an aura of This Is A Player around him. Is this is a case of “Oh joy, he chose us”?

  2. Lowetide says:

    zatch:
    Can someone please explain the attraction of Drake to me? Guy seems to be a 3rd line type, and not a stunning one at that. He’s 23 and I don’t see much improvement inbound. Yet there seems to be an aura of This Is A Player around him. Is this is a case of “Oh joy, he chose us”?

    Suspect the coach likes his speed. Caggiula and Slepy are falling behind Pulju and Khaira now though, so “appeal” might be a strong word for Caggiula at this point in time.

  3. TO10801 says:

    If the team plays the way it has in the last 4 it has a chance. NSH is the best team in the league, and its really not that close IMO. They have a mobile, mean defense. They are big, yet fast up front. The rest of DEC has some winnable games, provided the backup goalie curse does not continue tomorrow. None of the upcoming teams are world beaters by any means. WPG and STL are not as strong as they were to start the year, and MTL, SJS, CHI, MIN are all middle of the pack teams.

  4. JD_Sigh says:

    With a loss, Slepy’s sideburns grow longer. The Toddler will no doubt want to inject some energy into the lineup.

  5. jake70 says:

    What is the Oilers shooting percentage to date this seaon? Anyone know?

  6. Klima's_Bucket says:

    At evens McDavid can’t buy a call, but when the Oilers are down a man, all it takes is a one handed hook on the arm of Josi to take the feet out from under him to put the Oilers down two men.

    La plus ca change.

  7. Whatif says:

    In watching the Oilers this year I have become convinced that the problems, both offensively and defensively, stem from the weakness of our D Corps.

    Benning appeared to struggle a lot last night . He made some weak plays and some poor passes. He does not instill confidence this year. Russell works like a demon but regularly gets outmuscled by opposing forwards. Klefbom is handling the puck like a grenade. It is too early to rate Davidson and Nurse is playing well. Compare this to the predators D corps and we are not in the same league. They simply dominate in many ways.

    Also alarming to me is the volume of shots from the D Men. It is very high but a tremendous number are wide open looks for goaltenders and have a very low danger percentage. So many are taken when no Oiler is even near the net. This means a clean save with no rebound and a stoppage in play. Given that we have players like Lucic, Maroon, Khaira, Kassian, Puljujarvi and Draisaitl why is there no net front presence?

    We are starting to see the value of JP being able to skate with McDavid. Imagine if they were to get decent breakout passes from the D Corps. Imagine if a second winger on McDavid’s line could skate and finish.

    I am eagerly awaiting the return of Larsson and Sekera. Will they work magic? Not likely to happen immediately but they will give us stability and ability on the back end. This will allow the forwards to begin to focus on offense and good things will happen.

    I am not convinced that the team will make the playoffs this spring but I am convinced that with the return of our missing D Men and a few tweaks to the wings we will be able to get back on track to where we want to be. I just hope that PC is smart enough to keep the 3 wise men (McDavid, Draisaitl, Nuge) as our core forwards over the coming years. The rise in the salary cap should help in this regard.

  8. OilClog says:

    Oilers outshoot opponent 22-4.. and only 4 of the shots are high danger… not really that impressive. If it was closer to 10 high danger chances.. against a team on a back to back..

    The Corsi style of play for the Oilers, they have to score within their first 6 shots or the goalie is put into their groove every single time. That’s how you make every backup look like a Vezina candidate, High volume of shots from the outside with no penetration or even a single body screen.

    Baaaaaam goaler feels good and it’s lights out for the Oilers, this coaching staff has been doing this for years.

    For the near 50 shots last night, maybe 6 of them felt like they could cause some grief. The systems are the direct cause for a lack of finish, if your systems never put you in the proper place to finish.

  9. Brantford Boy says:

    Thanks for posting Leons 5×5 scoring/60 for the last 10 games, numbers… not my friend… this stupud calculator wont even divide by zero… as this was the first game I missed this season for the eye test I cant say how Leon played, but man those numbers are awful, hope he returns to form soon… and hope for quick returns of Talbot, and Larsson, and Sekera… “Hope, it’s a dangerous thing Andy”…

  10. JimmyV1965 says:

    I’m not blaming this game on the goalie, but it seems like we have to blow out a team to win a game. We keep losing the goaltender battles. If there’s only three or four goals in a game we seem to be on the short end. I can only think of the Islanders game that we stole because of good goaltending. How many times has the opposition goalie stole a win? 2 in the last 4. Having said that, special teams are absolutely killing us. And it would be nice to see someone take advantage of the wide open net passes mcdavid is giving them. Both Lucic and JP flubbed on multiple gifts from Mcdavid last night.

  11. Woodguy v2.0 says:

    The Edmonton Oilers played a fantastic first period against the Nashville Predators last night, outshooting their opponent 22-4 but not managing to score. NaturalStatTrick had the HDSC’s in the first 20 minutes at 4-1,

    That includes the 3 they got on the PP.

    If we just look at 5v5 the HDSC were 1-1 in the first and 2-3 in the second.

    After 40 EDM were actually behind 3-4 in 5v5 HDSC despite out shooting them 19-10 and out corsi’ing them 42-29.

    Interesting fact:

    EDM Dmen took 55% (17/31) of the 5v5 shots.

    League average is ~30%, EDM average ~38%

    By my eye many of the good ozone possessions were killed with muffins from the point and 55ft shots that Saros saw all the way.

    Not a winning formula.

  12. jake70 says:

    jake70:
    What is the Oilers shooting percentage to date this seaon?Anyone know?

    So after 32 games….. 93 goals on 1118 shots …gives shooting percentage — 8.3 % — not 100% certain but looks like bottom 3rd of league in this.

  13. Dustylegnd says:

    LT, couldn’t agree more with todays post, I have maintained that Lucic and McDavid do not rhyme, Maroon has always been an excellent fit with Conor and its time to move him back, the playoffs are a distant dream at this point

    may as well jack Maroon’s stats and get max value at the trade deadline because he is gone, no way no how can we afford to sign this guy, Lucic has Maroons lunch money

    Something is not right with Bennning and hasn’t been for a long time, or he was never the player that showed up in the 1st half of last season, in fairness it looks like playing hurt has hindered Kleff physically and confidence wise, so no favors done for Benning but Auvittu and Davey deserve to play and I will say it again…….. Meritocracy

    spoke to a good friend that played 4 years at Colgate vs Benning and this friend was underwhelmed with Benning as a College player, once the health returns to the D corp, no doubt in my mind, he is in dire need of a 5 game sit down and only time will tell if the 1st half of last year was real, or an aberration

    Health and confidence are often underestimated, this season shows the thin line separating success from failure in todays NHL, look at Winnipeg and Tampa over the last 3 years, I do believe Edmonton is not far off some real success, just not his year

  14. McSorley33 says:

    Another RHD ranked #6 on a Sportsnet List:

    6. Noah Dobson, D, 6-foot-2, 180 pounds (Acadie-Bathurst Titan, QMJHL): No one player has opened more eyes since the start of the season. He’s experienced a meteoric rise up everyone’s list. Offensively, there is no limit to what he can do. The package includes size, skating and the ability to pace the game from the right side.

  15. Dustylegnd says:

    Woodguy v2.0,

    Sure the HDSC came on the PP, but zone and shot dominance forces the other team to take penalties, so if the HDSC come on the PP and said pressure resulted in PP, that is a winning formula

    Not scoring on said PP is a losing formula, running a 58% PK at home is a historically shitty accomplishment and for sure is a losing formula…

    just sayin

  16. Woodguy v2.0 says:

    OilClog,

    The Corsi style of play

    Corsi isn’t a style of play.

    It’s a shot at the net.

    McLellan has stated publicly he doesn’t know what a corsi or Fenwick is, but he likes a lot of shots.

  17. oscarmike says:

    Oilers have no skill when it comes to shooting the puck but just blind luck.

  18. npanciroli says:

    Aren’t the Oilers pretty high in the league in High Danger % this year?

  19. Pescador says:

    Lowetide: “contraption dammit stupid frack”
    Haha, Thank you, I needed that this morning- perfect

  20. Durag says:

    What a frustrating game – but I can’t help but feel like if they can continue to control the play like that, and add Sekera, Larsson and Talbot back into the mix, maybe that season-saving 6+ game winning streak is attainable.

    Can’t hang a shutout loss on the goalie, and none of the goals against were particularly galling, but I’ve gotta ask the question – Do the Oilers have the worst goaltending in the league right now?

  21. 106 and 106 says:

    “What’s up with Leon?”

    Post-concussion Leon is the not the same as pre-concussion Leon (the guy who battled Getzlaf toe to toe).

    The most expensive player on the team is, exactly as you say, consistently inconsistent.

    No one’s really focused on him yet, but the 5v5 (and powerplay) is starting to speak for itself.

  22. Pescador says:

    Woodguy v2.0:
    OilClog,

    The Corsi style of play

    Corsi isn’t a style of play.

    It’s a shot at the net.

    McLellan has stated publicly he doesn’t know what a corsi or Fenwick is, but he likes a lot of shots.

    In other words, he prefers a style that creates a lot of corsi

  23. 106 and 106 says:

    Woodguy v2.0,

    EDM Dmen took 55% (17/31) of the 5v5 shots.
    League average is ~30%, EDM average ~38%

    This is really helpful; people have been mentioning the distance muffins as reasons for not scoring enough.

    Counter-argument: The D is activated and firing.

  24. McSorley33 says:

    I am with Mr. Staples- can we give our Finnish RW a shot on the PP?

    And give him lots of runway . Because we are building for next year.

    Once again, love Nurse and Khaira.

    Drai is very hit or miss this year…

    Strome is nyquil

  25. oscarmike says:

    Because there was this one time Drake played with McD and scored a goal. Look at Maroon he is no different. He mooched off McD all last year.
    Oilers developing players is an oxy-moron.
    Last year they burned a year of JP ELC, this year they put Yamamoto on the first line with McD.
    The Oilers have been building their team the same way for years now, a bunch of young talent with bottom 6 forwards. Instead of having a balance of skilled veterans mentoring 1-3 young players.
    McDavid at 12 years olds said something about playing with Lucic and the Oilers got Lucic.
    Look how well Yakupov played with Derek Roy.
    McDavid, Leon and Nuge should all have a skilled veteran forward instead they get Maroon, Slepy, Strome, Drake, JP, Lucic, ect.
    The only reason why the Oilers made playoffs last year they had decent Defence, great goaltending and everyone was healthy.

  26. zatch says:

    Durag,

    It’s close. LB is, for me, showing he isn’t anything more than a high-end 3rd string/lower end Back-up. He’ll be 25 before the end of the season, and I am not seeing nearly enough good things from him.

    He’s not useless, but I don’t like when he starts.

  27. Woogie63 says:

    Is the NHL the only league in the world that expects their SuperStars to “play through” the opponent clearly breaking the rules?

    How is a 30 year old with 3 goals this year draped all over the superstar more entertaining?

    4 seats in the lower bowl are $1,600 ++, paying customers are not coming to watch JJ dominate down low.

    Might be one reason NHL remains a regional league with all this talent to enjoy.

  28. Dustylegnd says:

    zatch,

    Remember when Dubnik was 25 and “always” let in 1 bad goal? …then we traded him and he failed in Nashville and Montreal, then went to Phoenix and blossomed and they didn’t believe, and now he is a Vezina quality tendy in Minny?

    Goal tending is witch craft, the next guy in line is not necessarily a solution, play the guy and figure out what you have, you can’t possibly blame this loss on Broissoit, but you can blame it on the other other 18 skaters who all failed to score a goal, never seen a team win a game with 0 goals for

  29. Wyndi says:

    EDM Dmen took 55% (17/31) of the 5v5 shots.

    League average is ~30%, EDM average ~38%

    By my eye many of the good ozone possessions were killed with muffins from the point and 55ft shots that Saros saw all the way.

    Not a winning formula.

    It’s a better formula when you’ve got Brent Burns shooting and/or Pavelski in front of the net. Other than a healthy Klefbom we don’t really have a guy who scares goalies with blue-line shots or a guy who’s excellent at tipping pucks.

  30. texmex says:

    Dustylegnd,

    I have. 1-0 in a shootout.

  31. Dustylegnd says:

    texmex,

    yes they scored a goal in the shootout, which is….wait for it……a goal

  32. anjinsan says:

    I love Draisaitl, but not at $8.5 million.
    For that salary, he needs to carry the team to victory reasonably regularly, and be serious threat consistently. He needs to be as big a difference maker as Hall, and more strategic because he’s a C, and that’s not the case.
    Chiarelli overpaid by at least $2.5 million, and so the Oilers can’t use that money somewhere else in an area of need.
    This year’s Vegas story tells us that not having a loaded up 1st and 2nd line is not so bad if you have a line-up that is full of a lot of good by not great players top to bottom.

  33. Dustylegnd says:

    Woogie63,

    Yes, and the irony being, Bettman cut his teeth in the world’s mots star driven league

    in the NBA…Megastars get to travel, are always fouled, never get called for blocking and always get the benefit of the doubt, but then again what has the NBA ever accomplished TV contract wise.

  34. Pajamah says:

    Woodguy v2.0:
    The Edmonton Oilers played a fantastic first period against the Nashville Predators last night, outshooting their opponent 22-4 but not managing to score. NaturalStatTrick had the HDSC’s in the first 20 minutes at 4-1,

    That includes the 3 they got on the PP.

    If we just look at 5v5 the HDSC were 1-1 in the first and 2-3 in the second.

    After 40 EDM were actually behind 3-4 in 5v5 HDSC despite out shooting them 19-10 and out corsi’ing them 42-29.

    Interesting fact:

    EDM Dmen took 55% (17/31) of the 5v5 shots.

    League average is ~30%, EDM average ~38%

    By my eye many of the good ozone possessions were killed with muffins from the point and 55ft shots that Saros saw all the way.

    Not a winning formula.

    WG, I know you’ve stumped for a Tyson Barrie type PP QB before, is he still someone the Oilers should target, especially with this uptick in defensive shooting?

    Or is there someone else out there, maybe more defensively sound, with a big cannon who the Oilers could target?

  35. Réal Goudenyéu says:

    anjinsan:
    I love Draisaitl, but not at $8.5 million.
    For that salary, he needs to carry the team to victory reasonably regularly, and be serious threatconsistently.He needs to be as big a difference maker as Hall, and more strategic because he’s a C, and that’s not the case.
    Chiarelli overpaid by at least $2.5 million, and so the Oilers can’t use that money somewhere else in an area of need.
    This year’s Vegas story tells us that not having a loaded up 1st and 2nd line is not so bad if you have a line-up that is full of a lot of good by not great players top to bottom.

    Yes.

    And if drai really is being hampered by nagging injury then he should be IR’d right now – post season is not happening so get him healed up.

    If his performance doesn’t match that contact he’s going to take a tonne of heat.

    Reminds me of horcoff actually. The situation not the player.

  36. zatch says:

    Dustylegnd,

    At no point did I blame this loss on LB. You’re gonna have a helluva time convincing me that a guy with an .886 SP this year and a .899 lifetime is not part of the issue though.

    As for the DD comparison, there are a ton of things wrong with that. Duby had 3 seasons of at least 33 starts all with a SP over .914 before he fell off the cliff, and those were bad teams. Right away, we’re not talking the same beast here. LB does not have any kind of track record worth a damn. Besides, in DD, your’e talking about a best case scenario. Most guys who are trash at 24 don’t turn it around.

    FWIW, I don’t want to flush LB. I think Edmonton needs a more proven backup (which should not cost much) and LB can go back to the minors and the team can revisit this later. I don’t see a reason to keep playing him right now, and I’m not optimistic about his future.

  37. texmex says:

    Dustylegnd,

    Really? So the shoot out goal counts in the teams stats and players stats? Also, if a team wins 1-0 in a shoot out, both goalies get credited with a shut out, aka not allowing a goal during play.

  38. Durag says:

    zatch,

    Dustylegnd,

    Yeah, what I’m getting at is every game Talbot is out is a game where we go in with worse goaltending than the opponent. That’s not a recipe for success.

    I’m also not advocating giving up on LB. Hell, he could go down and play 2 more full AHL seasons and emerge as a great NHL starter. What I am advocating for is getting an actual NHL goalie yesterday because Talbot ain’t back, he might get hurt again, he’ll need some nights off when he does come back, and we might want to consider winning some of those games.

  39. zatch says:

    Dustylegnd,

    My in-laws (who represent the “down to earth” type hockey fans) will tell you loudly how Crosby gets a million penalty calls his way if anyone so much as breaths on him. It blows my mind.

  40. LMHF#1 says:

    Any idea why they’re having a D group that can barely shoot the puck acting like every pair is Al Iafrate and Dave Manson?

  41. Dino says:

    Shots from the point were a little excessive last night but I wouldn’t mind them IF THE OILERS PUT SOME FREAKIN BODIES TO THE NET!!!! Saros has a wide open look at every point shot. The oilers love to scatter away from the net after a chance, nobody wants to plant their asses in front of the net and wait for bounces and rebounds.

    FFS GET TO THE FRONT OF THE NET AND STAY THERE.

  42. texmex says:

    Durag,

    I agreed with this philosophy 2+ weeks ago. However the season is done so why waste assets to bring in a back up goalie? Keep Brossiot as the backup for the rest of the season to see what he has.

    Friedman said this morning the Oilers were very very close to acquiring Mrzek for a draft pick. Detroit were going to retain ~50%. Oilers balked b/c Mrazek is $hit!!!

  43. zatch says:

    texmex,

    Ironically, I think Mrazek is similar to Dubnyk, although trending a little more poorly.

  44. texmex says:

    No players on waivers today = No Larsson for the game in Minny.

    However Talbot has been activated from IR!!!!!!!!!!!!

  45. jtblack says:

    Pajamah,

    Justin Faulk? having a down year (buy Low) … CAR needs O

  46. Thinker says:

    Need someone to tell me everything is gonna be ok on the Draisaitl comtract again…

  47. frjohnk says:

    texmex:
    No players on waivers today = No Larsson for the game in Minny.

    However Talbot has been activated from IR!!!!!!!!!!!!

    I don’t care about our goaltending.

    I just want to hear we are not playing against a backup again.

  48. frjohnk says:

    Thinker:
    Need someone to tell me everything is gonna be ok on the Draisaitl comtract again…

    Well……salary cap looks to be going up.

  49. texmex says:

    frjohnk,

    Bad news, we get Stalock Saturday who just shutout the leafs. And it’s an afternoon game

    I’d suggest fining something to do Saturday afternoon rather than watch the Oilers play!! :p

  50. LMHF#1 says:

    Dino:
    Shots from the point were a little excessive last night but I wouldn’t mind them IF THE OILERS PUT SOME FREAKIN BODIES TO THE NET!!!! Saros has a wide open look at every point shot. The oilers love to scatter away from the net after a chance, nobody wants to plant their asses in front of the net and wait for bounces and rebounds.

    FFS GET TO THE FRONT OF THE NET AND STAY THERE.

    Only works if the shots are primarily coming from the middle of the ice. The Oilers take way too many shots at bad angles.

  51. LMHF#1 says:

    texmex:
    Durag,

    I agreed with this philosophy 2+ weeks ago. However the season is done so why waste assets to bring in a back up goalie? Keep Brossiot as the backup for the rest of the season to see what he has.

    Friedman said this morning the Oilers were very very close to acquiring Mrzek for a draft pick. Detroit were going to retain ~50%. Oilers balked b/c Mrazek is $hit!!!

    They should’ve done that deal.

    Every chance Mrazek bounces back. He’s very talented.

  52. Melman says:

    “I’m a fan of the big man, but passes have to be concise or they just bounce off of him now.” I always remember Glenn Anderson saying its not the wheels that go first, but the hands.

  53. Surrey Oiler says:

    Oilers activate Talbot from IR as per The Score…thank you!!! Waive LB pls

  54. CalVag says:

    Surrey Oiler:
    Oilers activate Talbot from IR as per The Score…thank you!!! Waive LB pls

    I get you don’t like LB, but do you really have to post something negative about him every day? It’s like he stole your girlfriend, your car, your lunch for today and your lunch money for tomorrow all in the same gord damn day.

    But if he actually did all those things, then yeah…f^ck that guy and his “rugged I don’t care” good looks

  55. TO10801 says:

    Surrey Oiler,

    Since Ellis is already in Bakersfield, are you suggesting we use Caggiula as back up?

  56. Scungilli Slushy says:

    LMHF#1:
    Any idea why they’re having a D group that can barely shoot the puck acting like every pair is Al Iafrate and Dave Manson?

    It’s a tactic to draw the defenders up. The issue isn’t that they can’t shoot, it’s that they don’t get in position to shoot. Nobody can flat foot wrist or slap any kind of decent shot. they need to move to get leverage. Burns, Kessel and such players do something to get in position to get a shot with some snap on it.

    Nurse Klef and Larsson have good enough shots, Benning and Davie can shoot as well at times. Hopefully the coaches are teaching them about setting up better to shoot if they want them using the point. It’s funny how Schultz and Petry are hammering them just fine once dealt.

    A lot of this comes down to confidence and if they were playing better the team would have more offensive mojo.

  57. --hudson-- says:

    LMHF#1: They should’ve done that deal.

    Every chance Mrazek bounces back. He’s very talented.

    He was a fan favourite during the WJHC in Edmonton/Calgary. Problem is his $4.5M salary next year. If Detroit retains salary, that makes it a lower risk gamble, but he still needs to be qualified at $4.5M.

  58. who says:

    Man there’s a lot of doom and gloom on here after a fourth straight dominant performance. And I’m not talking about shots or corsi. The puck was in the predators end or heading that direction most of the night.
    Just a case of bad puck luck and maybe lack of finish that cost them this one. It’s a game of inches and sometimes the puck just doesn’t want to sit when you need it to.. I’ll take 50 more efforts like that please.
    Broissoit was fine. Which goal did you want him to stop.
    Draisatll looks good to me. Like the way he is carrying the puck through the neutral ice and he is making plays in the offensive zone. Kharia looks pretty comfortable on that line but not sure if Strome is really adding anything.
    Thought Lucic has been having his best stretch as an Oiler and now we want to take him off Macdavids line?
    FWIW the only change I would make is Larsson for Benning when he gets back. Slepeshev for Strome on Leons line.

  59. dessert1111 says:

    I’ve been a fan of LB since he was an Oil King, thought Calgary had a late round steal. I think the org has done the right thing so far with him but he’s not making it easy.

    I wouldn’t start him next game, even if Talbot wasn’t back. At this point I wouldn’t be against trading Pasquale and a mid round pick for a backup and getting LB to battle Ellis in the minors again. If they keep him as back-up, which I think is a bit more likely, I think he needs to be pretty lights out in the rest of his starts this year to be penciled in for the job again.

    Sometimes you can bring along a player and they don’t quite make it. There’s still time but it’s running out quickly.

  60. RexLibris says:

    Thinker:
    Need someone to tell me everything is gonna be ok on the Draisaitl comtract again…

    Draisaitl will both play himself into that contract and, perhaps, at some point out of it.

    What I mean is he’ll grow into it and have a long stretch where we say “worth every penny”, “he’s our Kopitar/Malkin” and then perhaps nearer the end it’ll revert to “he’s not bringing enough to the table to justify that contract”.

    I call it the Tom Gilbert trajectory.

  61. LMHF#1 says:

    Scungilli Slushy:

    Nurse Klef and Larsson have good enough shots.

    Of those 3 I’d only rank Klefbom as good enough.

    Larsson can shoot if he’s close, but he’s no point shooter.

    Nurse’s weird half-slapper needs to go. He can’t do anything with it. Time for an offseason worth of applying his strength to proper shooting technique.

  62. CalVag says:

    RexLibris: Draisaitl will both play himself into that contract and, perhaps, at some point out of it.

    What I mean is he’ll grow into it and have a long stretch where we say “worth every penny”, “he’s our Kopitar/Malkin” and then perhaps nearer the end it’ll revert to “he’s not bringing enough to the table to justify that contract”.

    I call it the Tom Gilbert trajectory.

    I miss your posts. You should do less of whatever else your doing and do more posting 🙂

  63. prefonmich says:

    Last nights game is a microcosm of the season so far. The games Oilers have won this year, they score in the first period(and usually first) and the confidence grows from there. The losing games they get scored on first and lose trust in the system, making more mistakes from trying too hard and not too smart.

    I feel like so much of the issue this year comes down to goaltending. When your goalie is making the expected saves plus some of the saves he shouldn’t be expected to everyone plays a little ‘taller’, a little more sure. of themselves and their role. Both Talbot and LB have been the second best goalie on almost every night this season.

    I know it seems simple to put it all on the goalie and there are other issues to be sure but I think Chia needs to tread carefully to not blow things up based on this season. Hope Talbot rebounds in second half and we need a reliable back up because LB does not inspire confidence. Also need to hire Talbot’s wife a live-in nanny!

  64. RexLibris says:

    With regards to Caggiula, I think McLellan likes his “compete” (and I hate that word).

    He liked it in Korpikoski, despite results to the contrary, and he likes it in Caggiula (who is probably a more effective player than Korpikoski was by the time he came here).

    He liked it in Russell during his first season here, though I think that may be wearing on him this season in spite of the fact that Russell is arguably having an overall better year than he did last season.

    I think McLellan has a very thick skull and while he is a very good coach, those things he believes stick with him despite results to the contrary (this is where we see what we alternately describe as either loyalty or stubbornness). It also means that he is slow to adapt.

    Once he adopts new information he seems to keep it locked in, but a more expedited learning curve would help him immensely. It may also hint at why he was always so strong in the regular season but his teams seemed to struggle in the playoffs.

  65. JimmyV1965 says:

    Woogie63:
    Is the NHL the only league in the world that expects their SuperStars to “play through” the opponent clearly breaking the rules?

    How is a 30 year old with 3 goals this year draped all over the superstar more entertaining?

    4 seats in the lower bowl are $1,600 ++, paying customers are notcoming to watch JJ dominate down low.

    Might be one reason NHL remains a regional league with all this talent to enjoy.

    +1000

  66. Surrey Oiler says:

    CalVag: I get you don’t like LB, but do you really have to post something negative about him every day? It’s like he stole your girlfriend, your car, your lunch for today and your lunch money for tomorrow all in the same gord damn day.

    But if he actually did all those things, then yeah…f^ck that guy and his “rugged I don’t care” good looks

    He hasn’t done any of those things, I just believe (strongly), that the goaltending is the key to our problem. Fix the goaltending and wins will come. LB will never an NHL goalie, time to get a legit back up, huge error on Chia’s Part that he did not address that this summer.

  67. prefonmich says:

    who,

    It’s dangerous to keep blaming bad puck luck. This is seeping into the player’s language as well. Maroon and Lucic both mentioned comments like this and I think it needs to be cut right off by the coach. You make your own luck most games by playing smart. Lucic made a few horrible plays last night – he should have spoken of those, and playing smarter. Maroon was nowhere to be found netfront which is where he scores almost all his goals. He should speak about that how they need to get in the eyes of the goalie and work harder in the tough areas, not that the hockey gods have it out for them. They cannot control the hockey gods but they can control smart play and getting to the tough areas.

  68. JimmyV1965 says:

    Réal Goudenyéu: Yes.

    And if drai really is being hampered by nagging injury then he should be IR’d right now – post season is not happening so get him healed up.

    If his performance doesn’t match that contact he’s going to take a tonne of heat.

    Reminds me of horcoff actually. The situation not the player.

    Except that Horcodf signed his deal as a 27 year old coming off his first big season. I see zero simuliarty

  69. Scungilli Slushy says:

    LMHF#1: Of those 3 I’d only rank Klefbom as good enough.

    Larsson can shoot if he’s close, but he’s no point shooter.

    Nurse’s weird half-slapper needs to go. He can’t do anything with it. Time for an offseason worth of applying his strength to proper shooting technique.

    i’ve seen N and L take good shots. Larsson has a few goals. Larsson doesn’t use the offense he has enough, I think he lacks confidence and is too defensively oriented. He needs the Nuge talk this summer.

    With Nurse it’s learning to be in position IMO. Klef has a cannon but is also encouraged to be offensive so basically just does it more. Maybe not this year. I think a lot of it is simply reps. Burns didn’t start out like he is now. Not that any Oilers are like him, but it took time and reps for him to get his thing down. IMO they can all learn and be much better than they are now.

  70. Melman says:

    Since the goalering thing is a bit of a hot topic lately just for fun and the “crazy trade” thing I was looking at the $ on a Talbot+Draisaitl for Price+Gallager – idea being building a trade around Price and Drai (b/c mtl. is desperate down the middle), thinking Price + McD smells awfully Stanley like.

    Anyhow, Price’s 8 years x $10.5 running him through to the age of 38 with his recent injury history is terrifying. That lead me to checking out other goalie salaries and what’s Edm’s options and Ay Caramba, it’s a hot sticky mess out there. TO, TB, NJ are in great shape, but the are a lot of older dudes like Rinne coming up to FA, or it’s young guys who may (Murray?) or may not (Hellebuyck?) be the real deal. In any case Talbot, Jones and goalie Bob are going to get PAID as there are limited options. PC has a real decision to make in net to set up McD’s prime. So Oilerville, is Talbot the guy and if so what to do you pay him. I can’t see why Dadbot would sign anything less than a 6 year deal and you’d have to think the number would be 7ish. Curious to think what you folks think.

  71. JimmyV1965 says:

    I believe Drai is feeling the weight and expectations of a huge contract. He hasn’t looked good at all. But the skills are still there. You can count on one hand the number of centres in this league who can make that 75 foot tape to tape pass to mcdavid the other night that springs the 2 on 1. Hell, we don’t have a single dman who can make that pass.

  72. OmJo says:

    zatch,

    Remove those 2 .750 SV% games in October and he’s at .906% today. Talbot has a .903 SV% this season, to put it in context (granted this includes a .333 and .714 SV% – too lazy to do the math since Talbot has more games but it wouldn’t be world-beating either way).

    Not great and must be better, but not horrible enough to give up on the 25 year old G. Those 2 games in October and then being forced into the starting role after going over a month without a start isn’t going to help any goaltender play well. He had a .913 SV% in his last 5 games coming into yesterday’s game, seemed to be finding his rhythm a bit.

    Maybe opposing teams backups play better than ours because the teams actually play them more than once a month? Just a thought.

  73. maudite says:

    Re LB vs Dubby:

    The season the oilers gassed Devan was just after NHL changed the rules and he ended up losing like 2″ on his pads per side because due to his height he ended up significantly more effected than guys like bishop. The gap on his 5 hole increased far greater than other guys barely shorter then him. Add to that perpetually being thrown under bus for losses likely broke his confidence. That team defense was junk and if we talked about HDSC a few years ago that would have definitely been a key element of discussion.

    Dubnyk was way further along a curve and stringing a pretty solid resume behind him before that anomaly.

    LB though, I still don’t think we really have as clear of a picture and it makes no sense not to clear that up once we accept that playoffs are pretty much a pipe dream.

    Question for people smart enough to pull data easily:

    How stark are Mcdavid’s splits home and away as far as shot differentials/HDSC/ESP? Is there any notable difference last year as well?

    I honestly think shit ice at home would affect his type of game more pronounced than a lot of other players.

  74. JimmyV1965 says:

    Melman:
    Since the goalering thing is a bit of a hot topic lately just for fun and the “crazy trade” thing I was looking at the $ on a Talbot+Draisaitl for Price+Gallager – idea being building a trade around Price and Drai (b/c mtl. is desperate down the middle), thinking Price + McD smells awfully Stanley like.

    Anyhow, Price’s 8 years x $10.5 running him through to the age of 38 with his recent injury history is terrifying.That lead me to checking out other goalie salaries and what’s Edm’s options and Ay Caramba, it’s a hot sticky mess out there.TO, TB, NJ are in great shape, but the are a lot of older dudes like Rinne coming up to FA, or it’s young guys who may (Murray?) or may not (Hellebuyck?) be the real deal.In any case Talbot, Jones and goalie Bob are going to get PAID as there are limited options.PC has a real decision to make in net to set up McD’s prime. So Oilerville, is Talbot the guy and if so what to do you pay him.I can’t see why Dadbot would sign anything less than a 6 year deal and you’d have to think the number would be 7ish. Curious to think what you folks think.

    Talbot will be 32 when his next contract starts. Absolutely don’t sign him. Period. Chia has basically two years to figure it out. He’s paid big bucks so there’s no excuse not to do it.

  75. JimmyV1965 says:

    OmJo:
    zatch,

    Remove those 2 .750 SV% games in October and he’s at .906% today. Talbot has a .903 SV% this season, to put it in context (granted this includes a .333 and .714 SV% – too lazy to do the math since Talbot has more games but it wouldn’t be world-beating either way).

    Not great and must be better, but not horrible enough to give up on the 25 year old G. Those 2 games in October and then being forced into the starting role after going over a month without a start isn’t going to help any goaltender play well. He had a .913 SV% in his last 5 games coming into yesterday’s game, seemed to be finding his rhythm a bit.

    Maybe opposing teams backups play better than ours because the teams actually play them more than once a month? Just a thought.

    Isn’t that ultimately the problem with LB? It doesn’t matter if we think the goalie is good or bad. The coach clearly doesn’t trust him and that’s reason enough to get someone new.

  76. JimmyV1965 says:

    I’ll tell you one thing that stood out for me with Soros last night. NO REBOUNDS!!!

  77. OmJo says:

    To be real I think I’d rather it be -10 than +5 and the sidewalks being turned to ice. Wet slippery af ice.

  78. OmJo says:

    JimmyV1965,

    Well then have fun using assets on assets you already have because the coach decides he doesn’t trust him all of a sudden. What did he do last season to lose coach’s trust?

  79. fifthcartel says:

    The Mrazek mention is interesting.

    Petr Mrazek’s first 94GP: .920 SV%
    Next 60GP: .899 SV%

    It’s weird he just fell off a cliff at age 24, it’s also when Detroit started being Bad Detroit, though I don’t think bad teams make goalies that much worse.

    I’d take a chance on him, still. Dump Brossoit, give Mrazek more games and let Talbot rest more so they stop overplaying him. Mrazek will be 26 by the end of this season, if he rebounds you could possibly have him succeed Talbot and then you’d have his 27-30ish years.

    I think he’s more attractive than others because of his age.

  80. JimmyV1965 says:

    OmJo:
    JimmyV1965,

    Well then have fun using assets on assets you already have because the coach decides he doesn’t trust him all of a sudden. What did he do last season to lose coach’s trust?

    That’s what I’m saying. It doesn’t matter what we think. If we’re right or not. The coach doesn’t trust him.

  81. OmJo says:

    JimmyV1965,

    Wasn’t disagreeing, just venting a bit.

  82. LMHF#1 says:

    fifthcartel:
    The Mrazek mention is interesting.

    Petr Mrazek’s first 94GP: .920 SV%
    Next 60GP: .899 SV%

    It’s weird he just fell off a cliff at age 24, it’s also when Detroit started being Bad Detroit, though I don’t think bad teams make goalies that much worse.

    I’d take a chance on him, still. Dump Brossoit, give Mrazek more games and let Talbot rest more so they stop overplaying him. Mrazek will be 26 by the end of this season, if he rebounds you could possibly have him succeed Talbot and then you’d have his 27-30ish years.

    I think he’s more attractive than others because of his age.

    This, especially at half price.

    You could have had found gold. At worst, you’ve got a slightly overpaid backup who’s used to enough starts and could be traded as someone else would take a chance even if he failed.

  83. LMHF#1 says:

    Kinger_Oil.redux: – Yeah see this is just the wrong approach IMO.If you want to have a team culture, you don’t do fantasy hockey moves: good organizations don’t do what you propose: it’s a terrible way to treat your athletes, and sets terrible pressures on everyone

    Good teams improve whenever possible. Doesn’t matter if you’re adding around the edges or moving a “core” player for a better core player or better fit. You just do it. Trying to be emotional about this will do one thing – make your team worse than it could be.

    Did the Yankees NEED Giancarlo Stanton? By the logic of most of the posters here, they probably wouldn’t have even considered it. Was the deal as presented an absolute no-brainer for Cashman? Yep. Does Peter Chiarelli do the hockey equivalent? From what I’ve seen, I doubt it and that’s terrible.

  84. stephen sheps says:

    maudite,

    yup. this. all day (wrt both Dubnyk and the garbage ice impacting connor’s game…)

  85. leadfarmer says:

    JimmyV1965: Talbot will be 32 when his next contract starts. Absolutely don’t sign him. Period.Chia has basically two years to figure it out. He’s paid big bucks so there’s no excuse not to do it.

    Why Thats not very old for a starter. Dont go over 5 years but this is a league with lots of old goalies. Look around. Anderson, Lundquist. Rinne, Smith, Luongo. Not like he has a lot of miles on him

  86. JimmyV1965 says:

    What messes with your head as an Oil fan is their ability to dominate games. We lost last night but we really did impose our will on what I consider the best team in the west. Sure the shots were closer in the second and third period, but there was only a brief stretch after the third goal that I thought the Preds had us on our heels. By my eye, the Oil absolutely dominated possession for the entire game other than 5 minutes in the second period. As a fan, you think they are capable of going on a long winning streak. As a rationale human being you realize it’s not very likely because they haven’t even won three games in a row. It’s a real mind frick.

  87. Scungilli Slushy says:

    Talbot’s SV% in Edmonton are .917, .919 and this year .903. League averages are .915, .913, .912.

    I think you have to be careful here. He’s fine on the right contract with a solid backup, but Dadbot is not an elite goalie at this point, time isn’t on his side, and it is not smart to overpay for goalies as we know. Only for elite with a track record and lots of miles left.

  88. russ99 says:

    Home ice: Could it be the orange jerseys? Though you’d think we’d be used to that by now.

    Count me firmly against moving Lucic off the first line for now, you can’t turn a player into what he’s not, in this case a speed/passing guy off the rush.

    But he does so many good little things with that group to keep the play going. Without his anchor, Jesse might take a step back on the cycle, and whoops, back to a one dimensional first line that’s easy to stop when McDavid isn’t going all-world.

    Not to mention Lucic falling back if he has to play with RNH again. Not sure how many times we have to keep beating that dead horse before the team gets that it’s like oil and water.

  89. OmJo says:

    JimmyV1965,

    We didn’t win 3 in a row in November? Damn… 30 games into the season and haven’t won more than 2 games in a row is depressing. Even if we did have that one 3 game winning streak, that’s only once in close to half a season.

  90. Surrey Oiler says:

    I’d take Mrazek for the right price, send LB to minors. I would not resign Talbot, as mentioned by others, he’s not an elite goalie, however is a legit starter, unlike LB.

  91. JimmyV1965 says:

    OmJo:
    JimmyV1965,

    Wasn’t disagreeing, just venting a bit.

    I get it. For sure. I guess as fans what we think never matters. We’re just venting. Sigh. But with LB, I don’t even think the GMs opinion matters. The coach has made up his mind.

  92. JimmyV1965 says:

    leadfarmer: Why Thats not very old for a starter.Dont go over 5 years but this is a league with lots of old goalies.Look around.Anderson, Lundquist. Rinne, Smith, Luongo.Not like he has a lot of miles on him

    I don’t want appear like I’m slagging Talbot, but he’s not in the same league as these goalies. At one time, these guys have all been amongst the best in the league for multiple years.

  93. OmJo says:

    JimmyV1965,

    True. Reality is… The only person in the organization who cares what the fans “think” is Katz. And by “think” I don’t mean the thoughts in our head, but the money in our wallet.

    The disconnect between the coach and GM does seem real, to some extent at least. Strange decisions by both sides. Idk.

  94. JimmyV1965 says:

    OmJo:
    JimmyV1965,

    We didn’t win 3 in a row in November? Damn… 30 games into the season and haven’t won more than 2 games in a row is depressing. Even if we did have that one 3 game winning streak, that’s only once in close to half a season.

    It’s scary, but I’m pretty sure we haven’t had a theee game steak.

  95. Dustylegnd says:

    texmex,

    Ok clearly you feel the need to be correct, you are right….and I am wrong

  96. frjohnk says:

    Reading today’s comments on my phone when I have a moment

    What are the goalie stats for Talbot and LB at 5 on 5?
    What are they at on the PK?

    How do these numbers compare to last year?

    Our PK is the worst in the league and
    I’m guessing the PK is dragging the overall save % down.

    I don’t think we have the worst 5 on 5 save %. I’m thinking it may not be far off from last year but I could be wrong. Somebody with more time than me right now could prove or disprove this with some data

  97. Dustylegnd says:

    zatch,

    Hence all the concussions he has suffered, yet some how no penalty was called when said concussions occurred ….ok in laws

  98. Munny says:

    106 and 106:
    Woodguy v2.0,

    EDM Dmen took 55% (17/31) of the 5v5 shots.
    League average is ~30%, EDM average ~38%

    This is really helpful; people have been mentioning the distance muffins as reasons for not scoring enough.

    Counter-argument: The D is activated and firing.

    Exactly. Anyone who is talking distance muffins doesn’t know what they’re talking about. Here are the heat maps of shots from the past two games:

    https://www.naturalstattrick.com/game.php?season=20172018&game=20470

    https://www.naturalstattrick.com/game.php?season=20172018&game=20488

    So your counter-argument is correct. The Oil typically play as a 5 man unit In the Ozone and while the Dmen get their shots they’re often not the typical From-the-Point shots. The looks that Russell got last night, for eg, were incredible.

    This team has the horses, but needs Drai, Klef and goaltending to play to their established levels.

  99. zatch says:

    OmJo,

    “As long as we take his good games and ignore his bad ones he looks pretty good” Is not a compelling argument. In any case, an I mentioned previously, I don’t want to abandon him, but nor do I see any point in starting him so much right now. He’s not good enough. I stated explicitly, send him down again, and reassess later.

  100. Bag of Pucks says:

    My take on watching a game like last night’s where they dominate play and lose is it’s an expression of a team that can play its system well now, but is struggling with offensive creativity particularly in terms of finish.

    I think the main contributor to the problem is too many shots leading to uncontested rebounds. This team dominated in the paint last year. By my eye, they’re not as hungry this year to fight through the ankle whacks and cross checks. Lucic, Maroon and Kassian led this charge last year and their efforts were infectious. For whatever reason, it feels as if the commitment to a ‘heavy game’ is not there to the same extent this season?

    The teams that stay consistent in their scoring do so because their game is tailored to the high scoring areas. For whatever reason, this team stays on the periphery some nights.

  101. Munny says:

    LT said…
    but this team has enough holes to lose a game they play well in. Surely we can agree on this statement.

    I don’t think it is possible to agree with this at all, unless we agree it is true for every team. Seems to fly in the face of evidence. We’ve seen the personnel that are here dominate good teams for long stretches.

    Also, EVERY team in the league, even the top ones, lose games they should win. That’s why playoff series are best of 7 games.

    The biggest problems this year have been injuries, sickness and the play of Drai, KBomb and Talbot. No GM would’ve bet against those three in the summer.

  102. texmex says:

    Dustylegnd,

    Wait for it…….. you can’t handle the truth.

  103. SwedishPoster says:

    If you shoot 46 shots without scoring you shoot from the wrong spots, no matter how great the goalie plays. I don’t mind a shooting mentality, especially early in a game to get into the action straight off the bat, but if you dominate the flow of the game like the Oilers did for most of last night you need to pick your spots better. Make the goalie battle more, change his angles, move laterally just before shots. Way too many “[insert name] throws the puck at net” calls from the pbp crew for my liking.
    I was brought up through the swedish hockey system so there’s a “passing the puck over the goal line” bias on my part but I’m not a fan of the shoot from everywhere mindset and don’t think “more traffic” solves everything, traffic is great, shooting when there’s opportunity is crucial and sometimes a low percentage shot is your only/best option but shooting just for the sake of shooting doesn’t jive with me. As mentioned I like volume shooting to get into games or when the overall game struggles but when you carry play the Oil did I think it’s a bit of a waste. That’s not all they did last night, they had a couple of great passing plays and sometimes they pass when they should probably shoot. But overall I think they look to shoot a bit early.

    Other than the above I think they played really well for the most part, good puck movement, a lot of players moving their feet. A little sharper and smarter in the last third and this team should start rolling, four straight games now where the overall game looks good, some kinks but a strong foundation. The trick is to keep it up despite so so outcome, make the small tweaks without losing the good. Doable but not a great sign when it feels like everything has to break right for the team to get a win.

    When Larsson comes back I assume Auvitu comes out though at this point Benning is probably the one in need of some pressboxing. He’s a mistake factory the last few. But to be fair Benning plays the tougher minutes of him and the frenchman.

    Two bad penalties from Oscar and Connor, a deflection you could argue shouldn’t have counted and a sloppy mistake from Benning killed the team in the bad end. It happens, the lack of scoring is the big story, I’m sure one or two of those goal don’t happen if the Oilers get paid for their first period dominance.

  104. Dustylegnd says:

    texmex,

    Au contraire, like I said, you have a need to be right, you are absolutely correct the NHL is a league in which you can win the game without actually scoring a goal…it is a fantastic system

    What doesn’t change is the Oilers currently do not have enough people who can score goals, and Maroon is about to set sail which is 25 less goals next year

    We also have a home PK% that sits below 60% think about that

    Is backup goal tending a problem? based on a reasonably small sample size yes,

    has starting goal tending been a problem this year to date? yes

    Does anybody win in this league without at least a 918 SV% ?

    Chia has lots of work in front of him….missing the playoffs and selling off assets for 1st and 2nd round picks while collecting your own lottery pick looks like the preferred outcome at this point….the sun will come up tomorrow too

  105. Thinker says:

    Ghosts of Patty O’Sullivan last night. The man who inspired the phrase “That player is a POS.”.

  106. who says:

    prefonmich:
    who,

    It’s dangerous to keep blaming bad puck luck. This is seeping into the player’s language as well. Maroon and Lucic both mentioned comments like this and I think it needs to be cut right off by the coach. You make your own luck most games by playing smart. Lucic made a few horrible plays last night – he should have spoken of those, and playing smarter. Maroon was nowhere to be found netfront which is where he scores almost all his goals. He should speak about that how they need to get in the eyes of the goalie and work harder in the tough areas, not that the hockey gods have it out for them. They cannot control the hockey gods but they can control smart play and getting to the tough areas.

    Please refer to Swedish posters above post for my thoughts.
    Overall play very good. Some bad decisions in offensive situations and poor puck luck. It happens. Surely you’ve played the game enough to recognize when a team is playing well.

  107. ashley says:

    Drai is going to have a hard time living up to that contract. What, he’s only a 40-50 point man away from McDavid? And Maroon is struggling to keep pace with last year away from McDavid?

    It seems like Chia should have known better. We had an old friend over for dinner last weekend who does pro scouting for a team in the East, and he said the buzz around hockey circles is that Chia was crazy to give that kind of contract to an unproven player based on one good year on McDavid’s wing.

    Maybe the play was to trade him and keep Eberle. He would have garnered substantial return and then could have had his 45 point a year seasons for 8.5 million somewhere else.

  108. who says:

    ashley:
    Drai is going to have a hard time living up to that contract.What, he’s only a 40-50 point man away from McDavid?And Maroon is struggling to keep pace with last year away from McDavid?

    It seems like Chia should have known better.We had an old friend over for dinner last weekend who does pro scouting for a team in the East, and he said the buzz around hockey circles is that Chia was crazy to give that kind of contract to an unproven player based on one good year on McDavid’s wing.

    Maybe the play was to trade him and keep Eberle.He would have garnered substantial return and then could have had his 45 point a year seasons for 8.5 million somewhere else.

    I guess it always depends on what you get back for Drai but I prefer the team with Drai at center and Eberle in New York.

  109. who says:

    Again the team dominates game, loses, and everyone comes out of the woodwork to shit on their favorite whipping boy.
    This really is a fragile fan base.

  110. texmex says:

    who,

    Against IMO the best team in the NHL and Stanley cup favorite nonetheless

    Imagine the preds with elllis on the back end. Yikes

  111. Scungilli Slushy says:

    SwedishPoster,

    Nice post. I agree they rush shots and McL mentioned it, too soon or too late. It’s pretty hard to beat most goalies straight up, good scorers change angles or make some type of fake. McDavid could have 30 goals already if he was better at it, so many chances.

  112. LMHF#1 says:

    The Edmonton Oilers did not dominate last night’s game.

    Go watch it again if you’re thinking that.

    Things that happen in games where you dominate:

    – Open shooting chances from the slot
    – Odd man rushes
    – Breakaways
    – High number of penalties drawn
    – Lack of quality chances for the opposition

    If you watch with that context, you won’t see a dominant performance. A whole whack of perimeter shooting says a lot of nothing and that you turned the puck over 30+ times.

  113. HT Joe says:

    who: I guess it always depends on what you get back for Drai but I prefer the team with Drai at center and Eberle in New York.

    Jordan Eberle – $6M/yr, 32GP, 12G, 10A, 22P, 0.38 goals/game, 0.69 points/game
    Leon Draisatl – $8.5M/yr, 28GP, 8G, 14A, 22P, 0.29 goals/game, 0.79 points/game

    Keep in mind that a lot of Draisaitl’s games this year were played / inflated with McDavid as well.

    I’m not saying get rid of Draisaitl or that Eberle with a lower cap hit and higher goal production would be better. I am trying to say that the numbers don’t look that great, and this could be a closer call than a lot of people thought in the summer (myself included… I was very high on Leon and down on Eberle).

    For those smarter than me: Someone once posted that Draisatl helped McDavid’s performance too… do we have WOWY point production for McDavid and Draisatl? It certainly looks like splitting the two up hurts Draisatl’s production but does it hurt McDavid’s too? Thanks!!

  114. who says:

    texmex:
    who,

    Against IMO the best team in the NHL and Stanley cup favorite nonetheless

    Imagine the preds with elllis on the back end. Yikes

    Yeah yikes.
    Now imagine the Oilers, who just dominated the Preds, with Sekera and Larrson on the back end. Yikes.
    All I’m asking for is a little optimism and fan acknowledgement of 4 really well played games.
    Man I miss Original Pouzar.

  115. who says:

    LMHF#1:
    The Edmonton Oilers did not dominate last night’s game.

    Go watch it again if you’re thinking that.

    Things that happen in games where you dominate:

    – Open shooting chances from the slot
    – Odd man rushes
    – Breakaways
    – High number of penalties drawn
    – Lack of quality chances for the opposition

    If you watch with that context, you won’t see a dominant performance. A whole whack of perimeter shooting says a lot of nothing and that you turned the puck over 30+ times.

    Who had the puck most of the time?
    Which end was the play in most of the time?

  116. who says:

    HT Joe: Jordan Eberle – $6M/yr, 32GP, 12G, 10A, 22P, 0.38 goals/game, 0.69 points/game
    Leon Draisatl – $8.5M/yr, 28GP, 8G, 14A, 22P, 0.29 goals/game, 0.79 points/game

    Keep in mind that a lot of Draisaitl’s games this year were played / inflated with McDavid as well.

    I’m not saying get rid of Draisaitl or that Eberle with a lower cap hit and higher goal production would be better.I am trying to say that the numbers don’t look that great, and this could be a closer call than a lot of people thought in the summer (myself included… I was very high on Leon and down on Eberle).

    For those smarter than me:Someone once posted that Draisatl helped McDavid’s performance too… do we have WOWY point production for McDavid and Draisatl?It certainly looks like splitting the two up hurts Draisatl’s production but does it hurt McDavid’s too?Thanks!!

    Keep in mind who is inflating Eberles totals this year. That Barzal kid is a player.
    Watch a few Islander games and then watch a few Oiler games. Pretty obvious who is the better player and who has more of an impact on the game.

  117. Munny says:

    Don’t know if it was mentioned above, but Talbot has been activated.

  118. Munny says:

    HC at Noon…

    Doug Maclean: Full marks to the Oilers for the way they’ve played the last four games

    John Shannon: The Oilers might have played better in the two games they were shut out than they did in the 6-2 win.

    And then they compared McIlhenny’s performance against EDM to Stalock shutting out the Leafs last night.

  119. JimmyV1965 says:

    ashley:
    Drai is going to have a hard time living up to that contract.What, he’s only a 40-50 point man away from McDavid?And Maroon is struggling to keep pace with last year away from McDavid?

    It seems like Chia should have known better.We had an old friend over for dinner last weekend who does pro scouting for a team in the East, and he said the buzz around hockey circles is that Chia was crazy to give that kind of contract to an unproven player based on one good year on McDavid’s wing.

    Maybe the play was to trade him and keep Eberle.He would have garnered substantial return and then could have had his 45 point a year seasons for 8.5 million somewhere else.

    Let’s maybe wait a year before we write off Drai. The kid isn’t playing well and he still has 22 pts in 28 games. He is simply too skilled to not be a top centre in this league for years to come.

  120. JimmyV1965 says:

    who: I guess it always depends on what you get back for Drai but I prefer the team with Drai at center and Eberle in New York.

    +1000. And I’ve always been on the defending side of Ebs.

  121. Munny says:

    Munny:
    Don’t know if it was mentioned above, but Talbot has been activated.

    h/t to TexMex who had it at 10:14am.

  122. HT Joe says:

    who: Keep in mind who is inflating Eberles totals this year. That Barzal kid is a player.
    Watch a few Islander games and then watch a few Oiler games. Pretty obvious who is the better player and who has more of an impact on the game.

    Are you making the argument that Barzal is better than McDavid? I don’t think you are, but I would urge you to consider that most of Draisatl’s production this year has come with McDavid on the same line.

    This is why I’m so curious about the WOWY numbers. I don’t believe it is obvious if Draisatl as a centre is more impactful to offense than Eberle as a RW is. I don’t think we have this question circled fully.

    *EDIT FOR CLARITY* I DO think we have an obvious answer that Draisatl as #1RW is better than Eberle as #1RW. I don’t know if Draisatl as a centre running his own list is more impactful offensively than Eberle as #1RW.

  123. Scungilli Slushy says:

    It’s important to factor age into assessing players. Drai is 22. They gambled on his contract and locked him up early, he is not the player he will mature into yet. He may be having issues like so many do after being concussed. I am not to concerned that he won’t reasonably cover his contract, even if it’s not a value deal. Most of the team isn’t exactly knocking it out of the park, and he doesn’t have great wingers.

    I think he’ll recover next season and would not at all be surprised he gets Yama on RW.

    * He is also having to adjust his game playing centre as opposed to wing.

  124. JimmyV1965 says:

    LMHF#1:
    The Edmonton Oilers did not dominate last night’s game.

    Go watch it again if you’re thinking that.

    Things that happen in games where you dominate:

    – Open shooting chances from the slot
    – Odd man rushes
    – Breakaways
    – High number of penalties drawn
    – Lack of quality chances for the opposition

    If you watch with that context, you won’t see a dominant performance. A whole whack of perimeter shooting says a lot of nothing and that you turned the puck over 30+ times.

    I can be persuaded by some of this. However, you must agree that the Oil dominated possession and the battles along the boards. High danger scoring chances for the Preds? I want to maybe say five. One thing I know for certain the Preds coach ain’t patting his players on the back after that game. And the Oilers coach isn’t telling his players to step up their compete level. Did the Preds execute better on their limited time in the ozone? For sure. Are they happy with that game? No way.

  125. Woodguy v2.0 says:

    Munny,

    Exactly. Anyone who is talking distance muffins doesn’t know what they’re talking about. Here are the heat maps of shots from the past two games:

    Anyone who didn’t see at least 6 ozone possession stopped in the first period with distance muffins wasn’t paying attention.

    The heat map for last night is not the same as the CBJ one.

    Look at the points and the slot.

    Quite different.

  126. Side says:

    LMHF#1:
    The Edmonton Oilers did not dominate last night’s game.

    Go watch it again if you’re thinking that.

    Things that happen in games where you dominate:

    – Open shooting chances from the slot
    – Odd man rushes
    – Breakaways
    – High number of penalties drawn
    – Lack of quality chances for the opposition

    If you watch with that context, you won’t see a dominant performance. A whole whack of perimeter shooting says a lot of nothing and that you turned the puck over 30+ times.

    3/5 check are a check for the Oilers, imo. Would be 4/5 if the refs actually called any of the numerous penalties McDavid should have drawn.

  127. JimmyV1965 says:

    Honestly, I think Drai is simply feeling the weight of his contract, like Kopitar did last year. I’m not a numbers guy, but by my eye his talent is elite. There’s very few centres in this league who can make that 75 foot tape to tape pass he made to mcdavid the other night to set up the fourth goal.

  128. Woodguy v2.0 says:

    Look at the PP shot locations from last night.

    https://twitter.com/Woodguy55/status/941794238223622146

    Pathetic.

  129. JimmyV1965 says:

    Woodguy v2.0:
    Munny,

    Exactly. Anyone who is talking distance muffins doesn’t know what they’re talking about. Here are the heat maps of shots from the past two games:

    Anyone who didn’t see at least 6 ozone possession stopped in the first period with distance muffins wasn’t paying attention.

    The heat map for last night is not the same as the CBJ one.

    Look at the points and the slot.

    Quite different.

    You know what Woodguy, I thought our dmen were laying out those muffins even before our guys had a chance to get to the net. And Soros gave up virtually no rebounds. It was frustrating to watch for sure.

  130. who says:

    HT Joe: Are you making the argument that Barzal is better than McDavid?I don’t think you are, but I would urge you to consider that most of Draisatl’s production this year has come with McDavid on the same line.

    This is why I’m so curious about the WOWY numbers.I don’t believe it is obvious if Draisatl as a centre is more impactful to offense than Eberle as a RW is.I don’t think we have this question circled fully.

    *EDIT FOR CLARITY* I DO think we have an obvious answer that Draisatl as #1RW is better than Eberle as #1RW.I don’t know if Draisatl as a centre running his own list is more impactful offensively than Eberle as #1RW.

    No. Not even comparing Barzal to Macdavid.
    Just saying Eberles stats are, in some part, built by riding Barzals coattails
    Again, don’t just look up each players stats. Watch a few Islander games. Barzal is the guy carrying that line. Eberle is the same player he was in Edmonton last year. He’s just doing a better job of finishing his chances.
    I am happy for him. I think he has landed in a good spot and he is getting the most out of his abilities. If we are lucky maybe Yamamoto can be that player for us in a year or two. I have higher hopes for JP. I think he is going to be a better player.
    Draisatll, on the other hand, is already a much better player. I think his play has improved since they moved him to center. His last 10 games on Macdavids wing weren’t pretty. But you have to look at more than the scoring stats to see this.

  131. OmJo says:

    zatch:
    OmJo,

    “As long as we take his good games and ignore his bad ones he looks pretty good” Is not a compelling argument. In any case, an I mentioned previously, I don’t want to abandon him, but nor do I see any point in starting him so much right now. He’s not good enough. I stated explicitly, send him down again, and reassess later.

    I didn’t take away all of his bad ones. Just the outliers, the .700 games. Or at least that was my intention. If I wasn’t on my phone I would have done the same with Talbot’s 2 low SV% games but calculating it was too much of a hassle (had a final at 1 today).

    He doesn’t even look good without the .700 games lol. .902 isn’t NHL quality. My reply was in response to his season SV% in which the .700 games obviously impact it. Basically I’m trying to say he isn’t bad enough to dump (IMO) and that he’s not the only goalie on the team who had a slow start to the season.

  132. Dustylegnd says:

    who:
    Again the team dominates game, loses, and everyone comes out of the woodwork to shit on their favorite whipping boy.
    This really is a fragile fan base.

    I posted yesterday that Edmonton matched up very poorly against Nashville and this game was a litmus test….the outcome was as expected….Nashville has mobile D stud goal tending and are deep up the middle

    We are also have our 2 best D in the press Box hurt and clef playing hurt, Drai looks like he is still suffering somehow and a PK gone really really wrong…is the PK bad because of coaching, personnel, or shit goal tending? Hard to blame coaching I mean seriously, combo of personnel and less than stellar goalies …fair enough, questions people had about this roster are being answered…but this crew is not that far off

  133. Munny says:

    Woodguy v2.0:
    Munny,

    Exactly. Anyone who is talking distance muffins doesn’t know what they’re talking about. Here are the heat maps of shots from the past two games:

    Anyone who didn’t see at least 6 ozone possession stopped in the first period with distance muffins wasn’t paying attention.

    The heat map for last night is not the same as the CBJ one.

    Look at the points and the slot.

    Quite different.

    And the same. Every map is going to have similarities and differences because every game is going to be different. To not acknowledge this fact strikes me as narrative framing. Hence me posting the counter-narrative for balance.

    So yes… I have studied both maps. Thanks for implying that I haven’t.

    The most striking similarity between the two maps is that the hottest spot on both maps is right in front of the net. The next is that there were strong spots on both at medium distance. The most striking difference is that the Oil took more from the right point, as opposed to the left side against CBJ. Does this mean there was a significantly greater percentage of shots from the point? No. It means a greater count of shots.

    It also means the Preds work to clog up the slot. Or did better at it than CBJ. One of the ways of combatting such a tactic is to take what is given you and see if you can create screens, deflections and rebounds. And also to see if you can stretch out that defense. Judging by the fact that the strongest heat map is still right at the net, some of this strategy must’ve been effective.

  134. fishman says:

    As we all know goalering is part voodoo! We again got shutout by a backup. What has been known for decades when you run in to a hot goalie you need bodies in front of the net to obstruct vision and hope for a goal off an ass, skate, pants, stick etc. Can’t stop what he can’t see. We have a lot of big bodies at forward. Go to the god damn net when 55% of our shots are long range from the D. We don’t have guys who are going to score from out there so need net presence!!!!

  135. Psyche says:

    Woodguy v2.0,

    Also a concern is only one shot from McDavid. Knowing that teams will adjust their PK accordingly. Makes everyone less effective.

  136. Scungilli Slushy says:

    frjohnk:
    Reading today’s comments on my phone when I have a moment

    What are the goalie stats for Talbot and LB at 5 on 5?
    What are they at on the PK?

    How do these numbers compare to last year?

    Our PK is the worst in the league and
    I’m guessing the PK is dragging the overall save % down.

    I don’t think we have the worst 5 on 5 save %. I’m thinking it may not be far off from last year but I could be wrong. Somebody with more time than me right now could prove or disprove this with some data

    For me critical letdowns are a big issue. The Oilers can take it to teams and weak play on details puts a puck in the net or leads to missed opportunities. I think part of how McLellan is coaching is an attempt to get the players to take a step forward. The best teams are consistent in details and tempo, that’s what makes them the best.

    With goalies having good numbers is derailed by whiffing on a goal or two a game. It is survivable but messes up the mindset of the entire team. Being consistent is also vital, every player slumps but you can’t take a third of the year to get going every second season.

    Better goalies might have an off game but are back on the next game. I am concerned that Talbot loses his form and misses routine saves at the NHL level. It’s a killer. Just as how they can be Corsi kings and screw up routine plays and hand the opponent gimmies. Reliability is really important, consistency.

  137. digger50 says:

    Looking back through the last 10-15 games the team is showing the same patterns of weaknesses. These get lost when you look at just a win or a loss.

    Once these repeating weaknesses show themselves they need action quickly to rectify them.

    Goaltending
    Poor penalty kill (upside down T formation)
    Ineffective power play. Lacks definition after zone entry
    Man on man d zone coverage has generally been weak and has been exploited
    Breakout – has increased in effectiveness last 5 games.

    Nashville can be beat. But not when they calmly apply thier effective systems and pick the Oilers apart. The exact opposite of the Oilers in regard to the above points.

    Players have been good/bad. Pucks bounce in or out. But these weaknesses will here next game until those responsible can fix them

    Edit: allow me to add”volume shooting” to the list. It’s a coached system and has been a weakness this year. It simply is too predictable and ineffective this season. Break the trend of “ back to the point” and get open in the slot.

  138. Scungilli Slushy says:

    Scungilli Slushy: For me critical letdowns are a big issue. The Oilers can take it to teams and weak play on details puts a puck in the net or leads to missed opportunities. I think part of how McLellan is coaching is an attempt to get the players to take a step forward. The best teams are consistent in details and tempo, that’s what makes them the best.

    With goalies having good numbers is derailed by whiffing on a goal or two a game. It is survivable but messes up the mindset of the entire team. Being consistent is also vital, every player slumps but you can’t take a third of the year to get going every second season.

    Better goalies might have an off game but are back on the next game. I am concerned that Talbot loses his form and misses routine saves at the NHL level. It’s a killer. Just as how they can be Corsi kings and screw up routine plays and hand the opponent gimmies. Reliability is really important, consistency.

  139. StixMalone says:

    Ok I’m gonna say it. The reason we suck at home is…..wait for it…… the Anthem singer!!! We need to change it up! Let’s get some hot chick or celebrity to sing once in a while! Man we don’t play good when we have an opera singer starting us off!!! Let’s get an upbeat young singer the players can relate too. Enough already! If you gotta have an opera singer get one with big hooters!!!

    Had to say it………

  140. Scungilli Slushy says:

    Scungilli Slushy,

    Phone, Woodguy edition.

  141. The Mook says:

    Made me laugh, but I agree with Stixmalone on the anthem singer

  142. LMHF#1 says:

    who: Who had the puck most of the time?
    Which end was the play in most of the time?

    I don’t agree with those points as a measure of dominance.

  143. LMHF#1 says:

    Side: 3/5 check are a check for the Oilers, imo.Would be 4/5 if the refs actually called any of the numerous penalties McDavid should have drawn.

    Which 3?

    I saw almost no open looks. Nashville had chances in tight. Not a lot of odd-man or breakaways…

  144. LMHF#1 says:

    JimmyV1965: I can be persuaded by some of this. However, you must agree that the Oil dominated possession and the battles along the boards. High danger scoring chances for the Preds? I want to maybe say five. One thing I know for certain the Preds coach ain’t patting his players on the back after that game. And the Oilers coach isn’t telling his players to step up their compete level. Did the Preds execute better on their limited time in the ozone? For sure. Are they happy with that game? No way.

    They controlled possession, sure. I think this team does that quite easily.

    They don’t do a damn thing with it way too often is the problem. In my view – this is caused by the system they are playing.

  145. Lowetide says:

    Safin with an early goal for Saint-John.

  146. Scungilli Slushy says:

    LMHF#1: I don’t agree with those points as a measure of dominance.

    What are yours?

  147. Scungilli Slushy says:

    Lowetide:
    Safin with an early goal for Saint-John.

    He’s Safin the life out of them.

  148. LMHF#1 says:

    Scungilli Slushy: What are yours?

    See above. It’s not exhaustive and it’s not as mathy as many will want, but for the context of the conversation it’s up there.

  149. who says:

    LMHF#1: I don’t agree with those points as a measure of dominance.

    So what do you use as a measure of dominance?
    Were the Nashville goals a result of dominant play?
    Goal 1 was a slot deflection of a point wrist shot. Hardly dominating.
    Goal 2 was a double deflection of a point shot right to an open Pred standing beside an open net. Pure luck.
    Goal 3 was a broken play where the puck fell onto Turris stick in shooting position in the slot. Nice shot. But saying that was a dominant play is kind of like saying the Oilers had fixed their powerplay by scoring two lucky pp goals in the Habs game.
    Goal 4 was a very nice play by a skill player on a 5 on 3. I will give you that one.
    How many other real good scoring chances did Nashville have?
    Which team was clearly the better team?

  150. Lowetide says:

    Kirill Maksimov scored a goal, now 29gp, 19-13-32.

  151. JD_Sigh says:

    StixMalone: If you gotta have an opera singer get one with big hooters!!!

    But technically, wouldn’t she sing when the game is over?

  152. HT Joe says:

    who: HT Joe

    Sorry for the delayed response. And thank you for a good response to my previous post!

    In any case, Draisatl does look like he’s playing well and that he’ll develop into a 1C style player, but without McDavid on the same line, he’s not there yet. Maybe my eyes or fooling me, or he just is unlucky but he doesn’t look like an $8.5M player (please don’t think I’m dumping on him… the overpay is all on Chia here). I like him a lot, and believe he’s a helluva player, but right now, he’s not delivering on his own line.

    (I fully admit I haven’t seen Eberle play with Barzal, so point taken).

  153. Scungilli Slushy says:

    LMHF#1: o

    I would call that an ideal game. Not always possible. Winning the possession battle has been shown to lead to winning over time because you have the puck more.

    Certainly the young core is still learning, learning not to cheat and abandon the system when things are not going as hoped, but the quality of play usually follows dominating possession as experience and confidence grows.

    I completely agree that playing on the perimeter doesn’t win, but my take is that teams that drive play to the O zone typically win, especially in playoffs when coaches start being tactical against the opponent because they play games in a row. Reg season they don’t as much because there isn’t time enough.

  154. LMHF#1 says:

    Scungilli Slushy,

    I’m responding not to the idea of a game that is good or where possession is on one side or the other, but to the statement regarding dominance. I would say the Oilers had the puck a lot and that is a good thing – I would not say that meant they dominated the Predators.

    In a game where you dominate, it’s more than just having the puck.

  155. LMHF#1 says:

    who,

    Nobody dominated that game.

    The Oilers had a possession advantage but were otherwise weak.

    Some of my criteria I listed above.

  156. who says:

    LMHF#1:
    who,

    Nobody dominated that game.

    The Oilers had a possession advantage but were otherwise weak.

    Some of my criteria I listed above.

    They were considerably better than Nashville, who everyone seems to be picking as a Stanley Cup favorite.

  157. dsr29 says:

    LMHF#1,

    The Predators scored on a High stick deflection(coming from a muffin from the point) a pp goal coming off an Oiler skate to land on a Predator stick for a tap in (initially from a muffin from the point) on a lucky bounce to Turris (from another weak shot that got partially blocked) and on a nice pp goal on a 5-3. They threw pucks towards net and got some bounces. That doesn’t change the fact that the Oilers did control the game last night.

  158. JimmyV1965 says:

    LMHF#1: I don’t agree with those points as a measure of dominance.

    OK. I’ll bite. What’s the measure of dominance then?

  159. StixMalone says:

    JD_Sigh: But technically, wouldn’t she sing when the game is over?

    Incentive to wait for the end of the game, kinda like the 50/50 draw…….

  160. frjohnk says:

    Was just looking at our goalies save % by the different strengths.

    Looking at the top 50 goalies in regards to shots faced this is how our goalies compare.

    Overall
    Talbot .903 ( 38th)
    Broissant .886 ( 48th)

    Even strength save %
    Talbot .919 ( 25th)
    Broissant .911 ( 36th)
    1st is Crawford with a .938, 50th is Legace with a .882.
    Some notables below Talbot are Lundqvist, Rask, Bishop, Murray, Price, Anderson

    PK save %
    Talbot is 49th with a PK save % of .800
    Broissant is 50th with a PK save % of .760

    Last year, Talbot had a even strength save % of .927 while his PK save % was .877. Overall his save % was .919. Which put him 17th overall.

    Now its easy to say that goaltending has not been good. We remember the “soft goals” each of them have let in and then look at the stats and conclude ” the goaltending is garbage”

    Yeah, it has to be better, no doubt. But if we dig a little deeper, we have to question why do we have the 49th and 50th place goalies out of goalie list of 50 for PK save %. By eye it seems that when we are on the PK, there is alot of pre shot movement with many cross seam passes that lead to goals against.

    Why do we have PKers chasing to the point or sides, which forms some sort of crazy T formation opening up the box and makes it easy for cross seam passes? The sequence of many goals against on the PK starts like this. Think about this, how many dangerous cross seam passes do we get on the PP compared to what we allow on the PK? Is this a coaching problem, is a lack of defensive skill problem? Combination of both? IDN.

    Whatever the issue ( s) are on the PK, they need to be fixed. If not, our goalies will most likely continue to put up a save % of around .800 on the PK and any hopes of getting back into the playoff race will be dashed.

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