AHL Game 24: Condors at Barracuda

The 9-11-3 Bakersfield Condors take on the San Jose Barracuda (11-10-1) tonight in a battle of teams who are losing ground on the best teams in the AHL’s Pacific Division. The big news for Oilers fans tonight? The return of Ethan Bear, Nick Ellis and Ryan Hamilton to the lineup.

CONDORS TONIGHT

I’ll update as we go this evening, while keeping track of other prospects in the system. The defense has a nice mix of veterans and youth, you’d like to see Jones playing LH side but Lowe is a veteran partner.

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21 Responses to "AHL Game 24: Condors at Barracuda"

  1. flyfish1168 says:

    Would love to see Bear have a good game tonight

  2. Scungilli Slushy says:

    Looking at those scoring numbers only Bear and Pak look like players that can score in the NHL, and we know Pak can`t. Need some good draft picks to populate the team for sure.

  3. Pescador says:

    Scungilli Slushy:
    Looking at those scoring numbers only Bear and Pak look like players that can score in the NHL, and we know Pak can`t. Need some good draft picks to populate the team for sure.

    One of the reasons I am pro Chiarelli is the noticeable shift in draft philosophy.
    I’m not sure how much of the credit he deserves, but the change to ‘talent-high ceiling’ is most encouraging.
    There is a number of quality skating RHD in the upcoming draft that would fit quite nicely along side Mr. Nurse in the near future. That would be my personal preference

  4. Lowetide says:

    Patrick Russell (6) from Downing (9). 1-0 Bakersfield.

  5. Scungilli Slushy says:

    Pescador: One of the reasons I am pro Chiarelli is the noticeable shift in draft philosophy.
    I’m not sure how much of the credit he deserves, but the change to ‘talent-high ceiling’ is most encouraging.
    There is a number of quality skating RHD in the upcoming draft that would fit quite nicely along side Mr. Nurse in the near future. That would be my personal preference

    Agreed. I think they also need to draft centres. Skill skill skill. Deeper now at Leftorium, wing and goal (can`t have enough prospects in the most important position outside of generational talent – covered)

  6. VOR says:

    Thinking About the Draft Part Three. So before I go on I need to tell another scouting story. Though you might say this is THE scouting story.

    Many years ago a scout sat in drafty stands watching a thoroughly mediocre prospect play hockey. His team gave all their scouts a table to score prospects on. It identified 10 critical skills and asked the scouts to rate the prospect from 1 to 10 on each skill” a perfect prospect would score 100 out of 100. This prospect ended up with a score of 58.

    There the story would end except when the scout looked down at the form at the end of the game he realized he’d been doodling in the margins. He had written down the number 10 and circled it over and over again. His conscious mind had been seeing a thoroughly mediocre prospect. His unconscious mind had seen something else again.

    It so unsettled the scout he actually got on the team bus while the young man was still getting changed and asked the veteran leaders of the prospect’s team if he should draft the young man. Now you have to understand this was a pro league and these guys were battle hardened veterans and league superstars. Their answer translated into English was hell yes.

    The scout asked them how high. These six veterans answered as one, “1st”.

    The scout asked, “you are saying you’d pick him #1 over all this year?”

    “Any year.” The team’s Captain said.”

    Thinking his leg was being pulled the scout asked “why?”

    The team’s top defenceman, the kid’s D partner said, “he is relentlessly efficient.”

    Relentlessly efficiency explains how a thoroughly mediocre player wins 7 Norris Trophies and proves his teammates right – 1st Overall in any year.

    So tonight’s multi-part post is about efficiency and rethinking the draft.

    Tonight we are going looking for Mr. Lidstrom.

  7. flyfish1168 says:

    Rattie from Bear for Condors 2nd goal

  8. Munny says:

    Preds score, thank Gord.

  9. Lowetide says:

    Rattie (9) from Bear (4) and Currie (5)

  10. flyfish1168 says:

    Munny:
    Preds score, thank Gord.

    Hopefully, Preds win in regulation and then Nucks take it to the phlegms tomorrow

  11. VOR says:

    In post 1 in this series I suggested it is damn hard to rank superstars. I have personally settled on a system that scores players based on “impact years”. I score each year a player plays from 1-12. I am going to explain the table in detail in a later post. For now all I want to say Chris Chelios, Al MacInnis, Ron Francis and Dale Hawerchuk are separated by four points (from 202 to 198).

    Yet a remarkable amount of scouting energy goes into trying to rank the top few players. Every NHL GM viewed Conor McDavid multiple times. Why? Wouldn’t that time have been better spent gaining marginal utility over other teams?

    Would anyone care about the trade for GR if the rest of that draft had produced something like the rosters I constructed in my second post on thinking about the draft?

    Those rosters were constructed from players still available in the third round. You can get construct an outstanding draft starting in the third round for well over half of all drafts. Thus, if you had a way of spotting those second tier players you’d have a massive advantage over your competition.

    Now imagine that same method had a good chance of correctly identifying and ranking Chris Chelios and Pavel Datysuk?

  12. Lowetide says:

    Christoffer (3) from Russell (4)

    Lowe(EN) (2)

  13. VOR says:

    I want to riff for a moment on the 2003 draft. Very few drafts have ever got the ordering of talent so horribly wrong. It was also nowhere near as deep as people usually assume. If you do any sort of reasonable redraft you come to a startling conclusion:

    If every team had perfect knowledge the best player available when the Oilers picked in the first round was Lee Stempniak. Kyle Brodziak belonged in the first round.

    It was not a deep draft.

    The 2010 and 2011 drafts are proving to have been much deeper and 2015 almost certainly will be.

    But many people seem convinced 2003 was a great draft.

    But it does make the point I am highlighting tonight.

    Most of the best talent (in a year filled with miss ranked players) was gone after the first round.A bunch more went in the second round. 80+% of the best players in a shallow draft were gone before the third round but as I showed in the second post in this series I could still create a very good team without any picks in the first two rounds. It is headlined by Joe Pavelski.

    So how do you spot these 2nd tier players?

  14. VOR says:

    You can greatly improve draft success by using marginal utility.

    By marginal utilty I mean how well the player plays compared to his teammates.

    I call it the Tyler Vesel rule.

    Tyler has not played a game in the NHL yet and probably never will. But he has the highest NHLE of any Oiler prospect. He has covered his draft bet already.

    Vesel announced himself by being a good complementary player on an outstanding team and then the top player on a mediocre team.

    He also demonstrated a 200 foot game.

    So Vesel had high value relative to his teammates and that value was partly in the defensive end. This is a repeatable pattern. Players who do this, outperform teammates while playing great defence, can often do it at the next higher level. For Vesel that would be the AHL. If he repeats the pattern there as he has in the USHL and college he will have an NHL career.

    There are no guarantees but if you pick high marginal utility players you increase your chance of draft success.

  15. Crazy Pedestrian says:

    Glad to see the preds shutout the phlegm’s… but how do the ducks keep getting those damn loser points??

  16. Mr. D. says:

    Staples is a fn moron. To say Davidson replacing Gryba is one of the reasons for the turnaround. Gryba has 4 out of 21 games where he was a minus player. The 14 min he was playing was not the issue. McDavid sick, Klefboms -4 -3 nights was.
    I cerrtainly agree Davidson is more mobile but he’s not the reason this teams doing better.

  17. Lowetide says:

    Mr. D.:
    Staples is a fn moron. To say Davidson replacing Gryba is one of the reasons for the turnaround. Gryba has 4 out of 21 games where he was a minus player. The 14 min he was playing was not the issue. McDavid sick, Klefboms -4 -3 nights was.
    I cerrtainly agree Davidson is more mobile but he’s not the reason this teams doing better.

    David and I disagree on many things but he’s absolutely right about Davidson’s impact. I think Gryba could be waived as early as 10 this morning.

  18. Mr. D. says:

    O I agree about the waiving. I don’t agree that this is causal to the teams change.

  19. russ99 says:

    I attribute it to McLellan finally stopping the blender.

    We now have a first line that’s playing very good together and causing chaos in the opposition zone, and it’s not all on Connor, a veteran line doing what it takes vs. toughs and still scoring, Leon getting time and space to get his chops back after his concussion and making the adjustment to driving his own line and a checking line that keeps possession and chips in some offense.

    All 4 forward units are playing well and contributing.

    Davidson has made an impact, he’s steady and reliable and we really needed that to calm the chaos, but the one line team issue and the constant juggling with no chance of cohesion were bigger than the holes on defense.

  20. Kinger_Oil.redux says:

    VOR,

    – I like marginal utility: great economic concept: how do you quantify this repeatibility when scouting?

  21. Oilman99 says:

    I have a feeling Auvitu could be the guy going west. We will find out for sure tomorrow, but I think they want to keep Gryba for the big grinding teams like San Jose,LA,and Anahiem.

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