SLIVER

The Edmonton Oilers won a big game against the Wild yesterday afternoon, the team received solid work from veterans Milan Lucic, Cam Talbot, Ryan Nugent-Hopkins and the winning goal from young Jesse Puljujarvi. A season that has been equal parts galling and baffling reached another potential turning point. Is this the real life? Is this just fantasy?

THE ATHLETIC!

Great new offer! Includes a free 7-day trial so you can try The Athletic on for size free and see if they enjoy the in-depth, ad-free coverage on the site. If you don’t feel it’s worth the $4.49/month, cancel anytime during trial before getting charged. Offer is here.

  • New Lowetide: At least one, possibly two stories today! (will link!)
  • Lowetide: How much skill is bubbling under for the Oilers?
  • Lowetide: Jesse
  • Jonathan Willis: McDavid as defensive liability is fiction
  • Lowetide: The Leftorium versus unicorns
  • Corey Pronman: Around the farms (Maksimov)

LONG DECEMBER, YEAR OVER YEAR

  • December 2015: 6-1-0, goal differential +5
  • December 2016: 3-1-3, goal differential +2
  • December 2017: 4-3-0, goal differential +5

The Oilers are now competitive with the team’s record of a year ago and the 2015-16 team is about to run out of luck. This 2017-18 team has worked back to the point where they may finally be able to climb back into the playoff race in a real way.

AFTER 33, YEAR OVER YEAR

  • Oilers 15-16: 14-17-2, goal differential -15
  • Oilers 16-17: 16-12-5, goal differential +7
  • Oilers 17-18: 14-17-2, goal differential -10

Edmonton arrives at 30 points as the result of G33, top dead center with 2015-16. In that season, Todd McLellan’s first, the Oilers would go 17-26-6 and finish 31-43-8, 70 points. If Edmonton continues at their current rate this year, the club would finish at 35-42-5, 75 points. Man it’s been a frustrating first half.

WHAT TO EXPECT FROM DECEMBER

  • On the road to: Calgary (Expected: 0-0-1) (Actual: 1-0-0)
  • At home to: Philadelphia (Expected 1-0-0) (Actual: 0-1-0)
  • On the road to: Montreal, Toronto, Columbus (Expected 1-2-0) (Actual 2-1-0)
  • At home to: Nashville (Expected 0-1-0) (Actual 0-1-0)
  • On the road to: Minnesota (Expected 1-0-0) (Actual 1-0-0)
  • At home to: San Jose, St. Louis, Montreal (Expected 1-1-1) (Actual 0-0-0)
  • On the road to: Winnipeg (Expected 0-1-0) (Actual 0-0-0)
  • At home to: Chicago, Winnipeg (Expected 1-1-0) (Actual 0-0-0)
  • Overall expected result: 5-6-2, 12 points in 13 games 
  • Current results: 4-3-0, eight points in seven games

The Oilers are slightly ahead of my projection (3-3-1) with a tough schedule ahead to end 2017. This is a key portion of the schedule. This coming week needs to be a strong one, followed by another. Edmonton needs to land near 20 wins by Game 41.

DEFENSE, LAST NIGHT

  • Nurse-Russell went 14-9 together in 13:04, 0-2 in GF and there were no HDSC’s either way. Most of the trouble for this pairing came with the puck on Russell’s stick. Went 3-4 against Zucker-Staal-Coyle. The second Dumba goal was a coverage issue, lordy that man was wide open, no forward in sight.
  • Klefbom-Benning were 13-17 in 12:07, 1-0 GF and 3-2 in HDSC’s. Went 7-7 against Ennis-Winnik-Stewart, 6-6 against Zucker-Staal-Coyle. If think Oscar may be returning to form, or at least much closer than we’ve seen all season.
  • Auvitu-Davidson were 4-12 in 9:12, no goals and 1-0 in HDCS’s. By eye this pairing looked good to me, Davidson especially impressed. Faced Granlund-Koivu-Niederreiter for four minutes (3-8), surely a matchup Minnesota liked and Todd McLellan tolerated.
  • Cam Talbot stopped 29 of 31, .935. Welcome back.
  • NaturalStatTrick and NHL.com.

FORWARDS, LAST NIGHT

  • Caggiula-Letestu-Kassian were 10-4 together, 0-1 GF and 1-0 HDSC’s. Coach McLellan prefers the speed of Caggiula to the size/speed of Slepyshev, I think we can safely make that call at this point. Not sure it’s the right one, we’ll see as time goes by. Went 3-2 against Ennis-Winnik-Stewart.
  • Lucic-McDavid-Puljujarvi posted four points on the night, I think that was the best game we’ve seen from Lucic. He was a big part of the win. Puljujarvi drove to the net and lingered, that’s music! McDavid made a dandy play against Niederreiter that may have saved a goal and was his normal dangerous. He’s rocking the casbah at full health now. Line went 10-10 in 9:04, 3-1 in HD and 9-10 against Granlund-Koivu-Niederreiter.
  • Khaira-Draisasitl-Strome were 7-9 in 8:45, 1-0 in HDSC. I think Leon is finding the range now, not certain about his linemates (please send skill). Man that’s a lot of Leon to be playing with someone not named Mike Hoffman.
  • Maroon-Nuge-Cammalleri were caved in possession, Nuge getting the line’s only point on the penalty kill. Trio were 4-11, 2-6 shots against, 0-0 GF, 0-1 HDSC’s. Went 4-4 against Ennis-Winnik-Stewart.

That rumored list both helps and hurts the conversation. “Picks” must mean a first-round selection and right now that selection is in the lottery. Maybe the 2019 first rounder is also in play? As for prospects, the Oilers have only a few players who could reasonably be used as partial payment for Mike Hoffman:

I don’t think Jesse Puljujarvi is heading anywhere, but do wonder if Kailer Yamamoto could be part of the deal. Tyler Benson? Ostap Safin? Kirill Maksimov? Defensively, Ethan Bear and Caleb Jones could be included, Nick Ellis is a good goalie prospect. I think you’d have to include Patrick Maroon and or a Matt Benning in there.

If we think like the Senators (good, inexpensive, under control), the 2018 first rounder, Kailer Yamamoto, Matt Benning and Patrick Maroon (who they could sign for less than Hoffman) make the most sense from here.

  • The Athletic: Mike Hoffman is a fantastic option for Connor McDavid’s shooter and if available, in a season the Oilers badly lack a sniper, his possible exit from Ottawa should be considered a major chance for Edmonton to correct a roster imbalance. (Mike Hoffman: A Perfect fit for the Oilers)

I wrote that on Tuesday and since then the idea has become a substantial rumor. Makes complete sense as a trade, of course Hoffman would be a fantastic fit in a lot of places. I think the Oilers should try for Hoffman but there may be other teams with more to give.

WAIVERS AND GRYBA

Eric Gryba is in a tough spot this morning, with Adam Larsson likely to come off IR tomorrow. Edmonton currently employs seven defensemen on the NHL roster (Oscar Klefbom, Darnell Nurse, Kris Russell, Matt Benning, Brandon Davidson, Yohann Auvitu, Eric Gryba) and could run with eight for the immediate future. Anton Slepyshev is one game away from being eligible for waivers (hat tip: Original Pouzar) so perhaps the fact Edmonton healthy scratched the Russian is a tell. We may receive confirmation one way or another at 10 this morning when waiver information becomes public.

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143 Responses to "SLIVER"

  1. Whatif says:

    I find it very interesting that at long last we actually had a valid ‘hockey trade’ to talk about.

    Very interesting that consideration being given to acquiring Hoffman.

    This type of deal could benefit both teams and raises the possibility of the fabled 3 for 1 trade.

  2. metallicat says:

    Please send Maroon back the other way if they can get Hoffman. I still fear his next contract and I don’t think he is a long-term top six option for the Oilers.

  3. Woogie63 says:

    By the end of this calendar year, Tier 1 fans with 4 seats in the club section will have spent $32,000 ++ for half a season of tickets. Not sure the entertainment value for those Hurricane, Red Wing, Peds games is all that good.

    No more screwing around put the best line up in the game and fix that PP and PK.

  4. Woodguy v2.0 says:

    LT,

    You wrote this:
    I think Leon is finding the range now, not certain about his linemates (please send skill). Man that’s a lot of Leon to be playing with someone not named Mike Hoffman.

    and then this:

    Mike Hoffman is a fantastic option for Connor McDavid’s shooter and if available

    So which is it? Or more correctly, which do you prefer?

    I think the bigger hole is on Drai’s LW given how Lucic is playing.

    27-97-98 this year:

    89 minutes
    4.03 GF/60
    55.6% CF

    Seeing as 19-97-29 finished last year at 3.57 you can probably leave that alone.

    16-29-18:
    49 minuts
    2.56 GF/60
    56% CF

    I think Drai needs the shooter more.

  5. Psyche says:

    It’s important to not overpay and to remove future salary when dealing for Hoffman. Maroon and Benning could be an example. But one of the $4 million plus LHD would be ideal. I wouldn’t be inclined to move prospects or high picks as they are very high value to the Oilers in the coming years.

    Also, Hoffman may need an adjustment period, He’s only lived between Kitchener and Drummondville his entire life. That’s a small region and a moderate drive for any Prairie person. A move to Edmonton would be big for this man. Not sure if he has family considerations too. We may not see him get comfortable until next season.

  6. Woodguy v2.0 says:

    If Maroon goes the other way in a Hoffman trade and you add a 2nd (plus prospect) that *might* satisfy their need for futures.

    Maroon should garner a 3rd at the deadline, but given his very low cap hit I think you would weasel a 2nd from a cap strung team who has the need.

    You could even trade Maroon at the same time and just include that pick in the package.

    STL is a perfect landing spot for him.

    They need another top 9 forward with all their injuries and they are certainly cap strung.

  7. Lowetide says:

    WG: I think Hoffman is a great fit with both, would run him with Leon for now until Lucic’s bat goes into a slump. Hoffman and McDavid could get power-play time together, that shot would be a brilliant addition

  8. prefonmich says:

    Hoffman may be the perfect fit but not at your suggested price. A first that’s currently a lottery pick plus Yamamoto plus. This a serious overpay. 5 million is also not a cheap contract. Chia has to let this team run it’s course I believe. You can’t overpay in season at this stage. Chances for playoffs are too slim and chances for a draft homerun too great to give that pick away plus plus. If you trade the first rounder you do it draft day when it’s value is greatest and you know what you are dealing with. We need more skill not less and trading away Yamo as well seems silly when our prospect pool for skill is so limited. Also need these cheaper skill players in future with CMds contract.

  9. SayItAin'tSo, Gretz, SayItAin'tSo! says:

    LT

    Call me crazy but I think even in the short term JP is locking up the McD winger role and his skill and abilities will become more apparent once the Oilers start playing the bigger (read slower) Pacific teams.

    Now call me crazy a second time because if this trade goes down (and Maroon isn’t the guy leaving) I think Hoffman slotted on the left side with Leon could be the key to unlocking the magestic Unicorns.

    Leon is a setup man and is sublime on his backhand, stick him with a reasonably quick winger who knows how to find open ice and they willfeast on the soft underbelly of other teams 3rd lines.

    Counterpoint: Hoffman allows you to move Lucic down with Leon and they were dynamite in the playoffs.

    Counterpoint to the counterpoint: to an extent yes but I’ve seen a very good mentor/student role developing between Looch and JP (you could clearly hear Looch calling JP on the ice “behind you, go wide go wide, down low” and then you see them chatting and laughing on the bench as TMac comes to whisper in JPs ear. I think this kids development is too important to mess with ATM and they are scoring quite well as a line.

    Verdict: Bring in Hoffman, slot him on PP1 but don’t necessarily anoint him as McDs trigger man. We saw earlier this year what happens when we try and overload the top line, it doesn’t necessarily work.Looch is scoring very well 5v5, seems to be a positive influence on JP and Connor is still getting his points. I really like me some JK but there isn’t enough skill on that line for Leon to flourish. Give him Hoffman/Strome as Wingers and see if they rhyme. Not even Nashville’s D could survive that three line wave.

    Edit: and of course as I type out that wall of text WG jumps all over my lawn! Good to see a we’re on the same page though 🙂

  10. npanciroli says:

    I want Karlsson back too. Drug Dorion and trade away a LHD not Nurse + Maroon + picks. Drug Karlsson and have him sign under 9 mil.

  11. Woodguy v2.0 says:

    True WC standings this morning using points percentage (expressed as “games over .500”)

    NSH 14
    VGK 11
    STL 12
    LAK 10
    WPG 8
    SJS 7
    MIN 5
    CHI 5
    DAL 4
    ANA 3
    CGY 2
    VAN 1
    COL 0
    EDM -3
    ARI -16

    SJS is 3rd in the Pacific and 10 games ahead. SJS does not play tonight. Next game is Monday here in EDM.

    MIN and CHI are the two wildcards today. Both are 8 games ahead of EDM.

    They play each other tonight so one of them will be 9 ahead by bedtime. They other will be either 7 or 8 Because ParityGary.

    EDM needs to channel their inner Frank Ricard and go streaking.

  12. Brantford Boy says:

    Woodguy v2.0,

    I think this weasel trade is what I was hoping for… if it includes our 1st rounder, not so sure… although I have doubts at KY’s ability to handle the Western conference, I’m not ready to give up on him just yet… sure he would flourish playing in the East…

  13. Woodguy v2.0 says:

    Lowetide:
    WG: I think Hoffman is a great fit with both, would run him with Leon for now until Lucic’s bat goes into a slump. Hoffman and McDavid could get power-play time together, that shot would be a brilliant addition

    Agreed 5v5 and like most coaches, McLellan would move him around a bit.

    Re: 5v4.

    Hoffman being a left shot makes the one timer much tougher as both McDavid and Leon are left shots as well.

    Seeing as McDavid can pretty much do anything, I think its incumbent upon him to fix the PP by playing right handed.

  14. Woodguy v2.0 says:

    prefonmich,

    Hoffman may be the perfect fit but not at your suggested price. A first that’s currently a lottery pick plus Yamamoto plus. This a serious overpay.

    LT’s suggested price could also be a top 5 protected 1st (if Oilers pick top 5 in 2018 the first goes to 2019 unprotected) and Caleb Jones.

    LT listed a bunch of names, not just KY.

  15. frjohnk says:

    Woodguy v2.0:
    True WC standings this morning using points percentage (expressed as “games over .500”)

    NSH14
    VGK11
    STL12
    LAK10
    WPG8
    SJS7
    MIN5
    CHI5
    DAL4
    ANA3
    CGY2
    VAN1
    COL0
    EDM-3
    ARI-16

    SJS is 3rd in the Pacific and 10 games ahead. SJS does not play tonight.Next game is Monday here in EDM.

    MIN and CHI are the two wildcards today.Both are 8 games ahead of EDM.

    They play each other tonight so one of them will be 9 ahead by bedtime.They other will be either 7 or 8 Because ParityGary.

    EDM needs to channel their inner Frank Ricard and go streaking.

    Tomorrow nights game is a must win in regulation game for the Oilers.

    Oilers win in reg, they are 6 points back of San Jose.
    Oilers lose in reg, they are 10 points back of San Jose.

    Of course the Bettman point is something to consider.

    We already have a team we wont catch LA and if Vegas does not falter ( they may not) having San Jose ahead by 10 points before Xmas is not good as those are the 3 spots in the Pacific we wont reach.

    Always a wild card spot to catch, though.

  16. prefonmich says:

    Woodguy v2.0,

    Fair enough. My point is those are valuable future skill assets we need more of not less with Mcdavids contract upcoming. Better to look at other options where we are more flush. LHD or Maroon plus. Dangerous game in our current position.

  17. frjohnk says:

    Woodguy v2.0: I think its incumbent upon him to fix the PP by playing right handed.

    Or you could always flip your phone over.

  18. jtblack says:

    Woodguy v2.0,

    “NSH 14
    VGK 11
    STL 12”

    NSH – Poile deserves the results. He turned his Franchise D man into a 4 years younger franchise D man. He secured legitimate #1 & #2 Centers for the next 6 years.

    VGK – I predicted VGS would win 25 games this ENTIRE year. Oooops. George Mcphee built a powerhouse in WSH; I am betting he will do the same in VGS. They had a great 2017 NHL Draft.

    St.L – How did the Blues get Schenn for Lehtera? Was PC involved on the flyers side of the deal? 😉

    I honestly feel like EDM is close to the balance photo… PC has a VITAL 8 mths ahead, between now and puck drop nxt season.

  19. frjohnk says:

    I do think at the moment we are too far out to be sacrificing the future.

    Run with this group for the next month or so and if they show they deserve some help, then get it.

  20. NYC-Back-to-Tokyo Oil (Gentleman Backpacker) says:

    I was thinking Caleb Jones. Ah Woodguy beat me to it.
    I would go 2018 2nd, 2019 2nd, Jones, Cammalleri. Entice
    Ottawa with the current high 2nd in a deep draft. The 1st stays.
    Maroon stays until we can get a 2nd rounder at the deadline
    to replace the 2nd we would be losing.

    Essentially the deal cost to the Oilers becomes Jones
    , 2019 2nd, Maroon. Can live with that. Add another later pick like a 5th or a B prospect if Ottawa asks.

    That said I cannot understand why Ottawa would give up futures for Duchene and then trade Hoffman for futures.

  21. jtblack says:

    frjohnk,

    “Tomorrow nights game is a must win in regulation game for the Oilers.”

    It IS a MUST WIN! Not debateable at this point. The race track has little room for error.

  22. frjohnk says:

    NYC-Back-to-Tokyo Oil (Gentleman Backpacker): That said I cannot understand why Ottawa would give up futures for Duchene and then trade Hoffman for futures.

    Colorado must be smiling after that trade.

    The Duchene trade is a 1st that is lottery protected this year, but not next year. Ottawa has the option of giving the 1st rounder to the Avs this year or next

    So if the Sens finish lets say 25th this year and pick 7th, do they keep the pick or do they give it to the Avs? But then they also have to consider what are they going to do if they know they cant sign Karllson. If they know they cant sign Karlsson they might be headed for a rebuild? And if they are rebuilding, Duchene is probably not sticking around either. If they sell off this coming summer, they will be a lottery team in the June 2019 draft. They could be picking top 7 both years. But the Avs will get one of the picks. Ouch!

  23. Snowman says:

    frjohnk,

    I don’t think they can wait. If you’re trading for a rental then maybe you wait. I believe Hoffman has term left so that would make a difference for me.

    Hoffman is a good player. Adding a very good player to a team that’s out of the playoffs with term left is a good plan in my opinion.

    Cost being reasonable of course.

  24. Dicky94 says:

    If the Oilers were to make this trade does it happen before Tuesday or after Christmas? If they’re serious about making the playoffs I hope it’s today.

  25. DBO says:

    Keep your powder dry for right fit. I expect they want to see the team at full strength for first time. So unless it’s a great fit, I bet they run till mid January or later to see about adding.

    I expect Chia won’t mortgage future of picks, but prospects from the Leftorium and one of Caggs or Slepysyev makes sense.

    What about Duchene again LT? Price will never be lower.

    Not sure, but I’d rather have Maroon at $4 mill and no asset cost then Hoffman at $5 mill plus assets.

  26. frjohnk says:

    DBO: Keep your powder dry for right fit. I expect they want to see the team at full strength for first time. So unless it’s a great fit, I bet they run till mid January or later to see about adding.

    I expect Chia won’t mortgage future of picks, but prospects from the Leftorium and one of Caggs or Slepysyev makes sense.

    Strome might be a piece they like and Oilers willing to give up.

  27. SoCaloil says:

    Man. Davidson is an NHL defender full stop
    Gryba on waivers. Yes pls. Hope someone grabs him but doubt it

  28. Confused says:

    Can someone tell me how we would fit Hoffman under the cap next year without moving Nuge?

  29. blainer says:

    Not sure if Hoffman brings anything to the PK or if he can play as the backup Goalie but that is really what this team needs.

    And a coach who can figure out how to deploy the correct players on the PP.

    For me if I were GM a PK guy is my first move and if you can find that guy who can also play PP do what it takes within reason.

    Now that Tabs and Lars are back i think this team is close to that 10 game win streak. Super happy with the pick up of Davey. Smart move by our GM for a change…

  30. OilClog says:

    Easily the hardest part of this season is the Athletic robbing Oilers fans

  31. leadfarmer says:

    Trading futures for Hoffman? Are we just pretending the salary cap doesnt exist now? Chia made his bed and now has to lay in it with his Russell contract and Mcdavid Draisatl overpayments.
    I can see it now. We overpay for Hoffman, barely miss the playoffs and spend the offseason giving Nuge away to fit under the salary cap

  32. Dicky94 says:

    leadfarmer,

    Could easily have Hoffman and Nuge next year.

  33. Dominoiler says:

    Lowetide:
    WG: I think Hoffman is a great fit with both, would run him with Leon for now until Lucic’s bat goes into a slump. Hoffman and McDavid could get power-play time together, that shot would be a brilliant addition

    Perhaps Hoffman could take some faceoffs from McD, help out the young centre, nevermind being a sniper to make good with the gifts from CMD..

    I really liked Hoffman last year in the playoffs, has skill and accuracy and a positive +/- for most of his career (and it was excellent in the playoffs last year).. Vet, a great get for this team.. Go Forth Chia, Save Your Job and this Franchise!..

    (just don’t give up ‘barzal’ in the process, or else.. 😉 )

  34. N64 says:

    OilClog:
    Easily the hardest part of this season is the Athletic robbing Oilers fans

    ~ Fame has really gone to LT’s head. His exclusive has severely cut back his free site AM content by at least 5%. The very long goodbye. ~

  35. Woodguy v2.0 says:

    I’m not much for “next year’s line up and payroll” type posts, but this Hoffman business got me thinking.

    So I’m going to post something that if anyone else posted it, I quickly skip over it.

    I expect you to do the same, but I did all adding and subtracting stuff so I feel I have to put it somewhere and its too banal for twitter. 🙂

    I’ve included salary if it changes from year to year:

    27-97-98
    Hoffman-29-56 (1.5)
    X – 93 – 18 (2.5)
    91 (1.5) -16-44
    Walker – Sleppy (1.5)

    2 – 6
    25 (4.5) – Barrie (Klef for Barrie trade – $5.5)
    4 – 83 (2.0)
    88 (2.0)
    (Gryba’s salary is 100% buried)

    Talbot
    Brossoit (1.0)

    $75.5MM

    Well below the projected $80 cap.

    1 hole to fill at 3LW and some money to spend, ymmv

    $2.73MM in potential bonuses. Need to be mindful, but not *that* mindful. Jesse is $2.5 of that and will score.

    Assumptions:
    Klef for Barrie – suggested to me the other day. Fills a need for both teams
    Benning $2.0
    Davidson $2.0
    Nurse $4.5
    Brossoit $1.0
    Strome $2.5 (his QO can be the same as his current salary since he makes over $1MM – assume he accepts)
    Slepy $1.5
    Cagguila $1.5

    Included Pou buyout

    I had no idea Walker had another year on his contract.

    That’s just a quick look to see what would work and its no problem getting Hoffman under the cap, keeping RNH and even adding more salary to the Dcorps.

    Its not the roster I would set, but its close and still has room to be creative.

  36. fishman says:

    Wow what a rollercoaster season so far. IF we sqeak in to the playoffs it will be quite the accomplishment considering what has gone wrong so far in no particular order:

    – Shaky goaltending from our starter, then injured, shaky play by back up, starter returns (hoping for best!)

    – Shaky D play compounded by injuries. Klef and Benning struggling (Klef seemingly getting stronger, Benning not so much). Outlook better with addition of Davy and imminent returns of Larsson and Sekera

    – HORRIBLE special teams!!! Seems better on the road but still a major achilles heel. Special teams have cost this team several wins this season to date. No real clear improvement yet?

    – Offence gone missing. Nothing from bottom 6 to start the season. Nothing from the D. Well this one seems to be improving with several recent games with 5 goals plus.

    – Illness. Knocks Connor down closer to a normal player for a few weeks. Bounces back with a vengence!

    – Now we are realizing our top 9 forwards aren’t good enough. Top 3 C are awesome and Lucic and PJ coming on strong but the rest are meh

    – Pretty thin forward depth in Bakersfield (Benson and KY good potential in a couple of years)

    I am sure other posters may add to this list but holy moly this team has had challenges this season. Really hope they can chip away and get better and stay in the hunt. Really don’t want to be focused on draft talk in Jan. GO OIL!!!!!!

  37. eidy says:

    I wonder about Strome being a piece going for Hoffman. Former high pick, cost controlled RFA. I could see Ottawa having interest in him as part of the package. Ottawa’s centre depth is not strong so I could see them wanting a centre as well.

  38. Woodguy v2.0 says:

    DBO,


    What about Duchene again LT? Price will never be lower.

    I’d be all over that.

  39. Woodguy v2.0 says:

    frjohnk:
    I do think at the moment we are too far out to be sacrificing the future.

    Run with this group for the next month or so and if they show they deserve some help, then get it.

    Hoffman is a longish term solution as he has 2 years left after this one.

    Trading futures for him is fine.

    Trading futures for a short term solution like expiring contracts is what I’d avoid.

  40. jtblack says:

    Woodguy v2.0,

    I like that Lineup. Do you think PC will turn a LHD into RHD? I do hope so .

  41. Scungilli Slushy says:

    Hoffman is a mid level shooter, 43rd in goals last year and not cheap, 28 YO with term. I think he could help, but not for quality assets, it’s robbing the more important mid term future for an uncertain short term gain.

    It is also possible Yama passes him before his contract is done and we are back to having to make a cap move, MH has a 10 team NMC – if he’s not shooting the lights out he may be hard to move at that cap hit. End result an asset loss, again.

    There aren’t any Oilers that have a 4m+ salary (moving salary out), that are moveable, that I would deal for him, they are either better than MH or it creates another hole.

    If Dorion is insane and would take Strome or Maroon and a 2nd, or a lesser prospect maybe. No chance a first is worth it to me, again cap hit, age and not an elite player.

    The mid term future is also why I would not trade Klefbom or Nurse unless it is the type of deal the Oilers never seem to find, a real robbery. I wonder if it would even be worth it for Doughty or Karlsson not because they aren’t great, but because of age at next signing and them both wanting more than PK. We’ve been down that road.

    I think Sekera is the best overall D if he comes back as he was, but he is 32 next season, Russell 30. There are no LHD prospects that currently can replace either DN or OK.

    We mostly seem to agree that the D core is key and is a weakness still, even if better. I want them to keep Larsson Klefbom Nurse as the future D core, and try to find a better RHD to round the group out, move on from the aging vets and turn them into futures or fill a hole.

    After next season the vets can be dealt. Neither had a player cost, so it is not necessary to max value with them, they are moveable even with NMCs when the trade restriction lifts.

    Hang on one more year, and with injuries we usually need the depth anyway, all NHL level D at this point are on the team, and a few are marginal.

    I think the forwards will sort out naturally, and with a better D group their scoring will go up. They will also have another high end talent on board soon. They will be a year older, another year together, and we would hope ready to play next year after this embarrassment.

    Holes remain backup, RHD, a scoring winger which JP is becoming. I am strong on Yama as well, he’ll figure it out if Gaudreau and other small guys can. He’s got the speed and the drive.

    Patience right now is still king unless an un-Oiler deal comes up. Any movement for quality or good futures has to be to substantially correct a backend weakness IMO. Non elite or old wingers aren’t worth a lot to me especially with big cap hits, especially given how young the core is.

  42. JimmyV1965 says:

    I’m not sure why Ottawa would trade Hoffman, who is signed for this year and two more, for Maroon, who is a free agent. They will want RNH or Nurse or Klef. If they settle for picks and prospects, they are basically throwing the towel in. Not sure if they would want that either.

  43. JimmyV1965 says:

    frjohnk: Tomorrow nights game is a must win in regulation game for the Oilers.

    Oilers win in reg, they are 6 points back of San Jose.
    Oilers lose in reg, they are 10 points back of San Jose.

    Of course the Bettman point is something to consider.

    We already have a team we wont catch LA and if Vegas does not falter ( they may not) having San Jose ahead by 10 points before Xmas is not good as those are the 3 spots in the Pacific we wont reach.

    Always a wild card spot to catch, though.

    The Sharks game is HUGE!!! Another 4 pointer. And if we win that I can see it starting a little run. The boys will come out spitting fire against the Blues on Thursday. That last game against the Blues was probably their worst performance of the year and I can see them looking for revenge.

  44. JimmyV1965 says:

    NYC-Back-to-Tokyo Oil (Gentleman Backpacker):
    I was thinking Caleb Jones. Ah Woodguy beat me to it.
    I would go 2018 2nd, 2019 2nd, Jones, Cammalleri. Entice
    Ottawa with the current high 2nd in a deep draft. The 1st stays.
    Maroon stays until we can get a 2nd rounder at the deadline
    to replace the 2nd we would be losing.

    Essentially the deal cost to the Oilers becomes Jones
    , 2019 2nd, Maroon. Can live with that. Add another later pick like a 5th or a B prospect if Ottawa asks.

    That said I cannot understand why Ottawa would give up futures for Duchene and then trade Hoffman for futures.

    No offence, but why would Ottawa do this? Hoffman for a UFA and not even a first.

  45. Thinker says:

    Don’t let anybody fool you, the season is over. We are 6-4-0 in the last 10, and have made up 0 pts. (7pts back on Nov 25). We are 7 pts behind last years team (betman points matter). I say that because I care about the team, and don’t want them to do something stupid because they are delusional.

    Only make hockey trades at this point. If we can’t afford Maroon, how in the hell do we afford hoffman?

  46. Woodguy v2.0 says:

    jtblack:
    Woodguy v2.0,

    I like that Lineup. Do you think PC will turn a LHD intoRHD?I do hope so .

    I have no idea.

    It’s one option for sure

  47. JimmyV1965 says:

    eidy:
    I wonder about Strome being a piece going for Hoffman.Former high pick, cost controlled RFA.I could see Ottawa having interest in him as part of the package.Ottawa’s centre depth is not strong so I could see them wanting a centre as well.

    Strome would literally be their fourth centre.

  48. Oilman99 says:

    Any talk of trading Nurse or Klef is assinine. They are just developing into certified number ones for the next ten years. Same thing with Nuge, the increase in cap room makes it possible to easily keep him.
    If you look at the attendance problems Ottawa is having, l don’t think they want any sizeable salaries in return. They can’t afford to be operating near the cap. Chia has traded away too many high draft picks,as exhibited by the present position of the farm team, we need to retain that first round pick.

  49. Woogie63 says:

    Remember when Yama had passed Jesse in the depth chart, Remember when DD couldn’t stop a beach ball

    I think we really don’t know what we have with;

    Benning, Klefbom, Nurse, Jesse, Driasaitl ……. JJ, Caggiula, Slepyshev, Davidson, LB

    Trading any of the first five before we know what we have seems premature

  50. Washingtron says:

    Banning might benefit from a game in PB. He’s still looking lost out there in his own end. So many passes to nowhere. I’m a fan of the guy but he and Davidson are essentially the same player and Davy is solid as a rock. Not that it’s an either or but Benning is hurting more than he’s helping just now.

    My buddy and I joke about Davidson being the real life incarnation of the middle sized guy in Nintendo Ice Hockey. 7’s across the board, no specialties, but I am never nervous when I see his number out there.

  51. JimmyV1965 says:

    Thinker:
    Don’t let anybody fool you, the season is over. We are 6-4-0 in the last 10, and have made up 0 pts. (7pts back on Nov 25). We are 7 pts behind last years team (betman points matter). I say that because I care about the team, and don’t want them to do something stupid because they are delusional.

    Only make hockey trades at this point. If we can’t afford Maroon, how in the hell do we afford hoffman?

    Realistically we are out of it. But everyone here is a fan and there is a possibility. This team is capable of going on a 12-4 kinda run and that’s what it will just to get back in the race. All I want at this point is a race for the playoffs similar to Tampa’s last year.

  52. Scungilli Slushy says:

    If they trade Strome and a 3rd for Hoffman, that would be Eberle, Strome and a 3rd for Hoffman. Chiarelli wouldn’t look to good in that light. End cap savings 812,500.

  53. Doug McLachlan says:

    Ottawa’s motivation is $ so picks and prospects makes sense.

    Maroon would be a separate deal.

    If Slepy was pulled from yesterday’s lineup in anticipation of a transfer back to Bakersfield, ok but wonder if Drake or Slepy have any appeal to the Sens?

  54. JimmyV1965 says:

    Oilman99:
    Any talk of trading Nurse or Klef is assinine. They are just developing into certified number ones for the next ten years. Same thing with Nuge, the increase in cap room makes it possible to easily keep him.
    If you look at the attendance problems Ottawa is having, l don’t think they want any sizeable salaries in return. They can’t afford to be operating near the cap.

    I wouldn’t do that either, but Maroon and mid round picks certainly won’t get it done.

  55. JimmyV1965 says:

    Scungilli Slushy:
    If they trade Strome and a 3rd for Hoffman, that would be Eberle, Strome and a 3rd for Hoffman. Chiarelli wouldn’t look to good in that light. End cap savings 812,500.

    </blockquote

    Just to be clear though. There's zero chance the Sens do that deal.

  56. Bobcaygeon says:

    leadfarmer:
    Trading futures for Hoffman? Are we just pretending the salary cap doesnt exist now?Chia made his bed and now has to lay in it with his Russell contract and Mcdavid Draisatl overpayments.
    I can see it now.We overpay for Hoffman, barely miss the playoffs and spend the offseason giving Nuge away to fit under the salary cap

    How was McDavid an overpay? He could have potentially asked as high as 14.5 IIRC…

    I agree on Draisaitl and Russell but McDavid was a deal.

    As for thye Hoffman deal, I can see both Maroon and Strome being part of that conversation with Bear being the ask on D as far as players go.

    It could look like a 1st & Strome or a Strome, Maroon & Bear… that kind of a deal.

  57. anjinsan says:

    If it’s Chiarelli and a deal of substance, that is not a good thing. Cringe. A fleecing is coming.

    Check out NYI’s winning goal in OT last night — Eberle from Barzal, with love from Peter Chiarelli.

  58. Thinker says:

    Scungilli Slushy:
    If they trade Strome and a 3rd for Hoffman, that would be Eberle, Strome and a 3rd for Hoffman. Chiarelli wouldn’t look to good in that light. End cap savings 812,500.

    I don’t think that’s how that works…Could maybe argue it’s Eberle and a 3rd. But teams don’t trade scorers for Ryan Strome.

  59. leadfarmer says:

    Scungilli Slushy:
    If they trade Strome and a 3rd for Hoffman, that would be Eberle, Strome and a 3rd for Hoffman. Chiarelli wouldn’t look to good in that light. End cap savings 812,500.

    Eberle Hall Reinhart trades are all in the past now. Just because you lost a previous trade doesn’t mean you can’t win a future trade

  60. Thinker says:

    Bobcaygeon: How was McDavid an overpay? He could have potentially asked as high as 14.5 IIRC…

    I agree on Draisaitl and Russell but McDavid was a deal.

    As for thye Hoffman deal, I can see both Maroon and Strome being part of that conversation with Bear being the ask on D as far as players go.

    It could look like a 1st & Strome or a Strome, Maroon & Bear… that kind of a deal.

    He could have asked for 15, but that doesn’t mean he gets it. His cap hit is almost 25% higher than the next closest player (Kane), so you would have to argue he is 25% better. Not sure that is the case. It was an overpay for someone who was selling RFA years. McDavid is at the price point where you may be able to realistically replace him with two players for the same cap hit, and that is never a good place to be. Connor got paid in full and then some. Let nobody tell you different.

    If you are unconvinced, wait for the Karlsson deal. If he doesn’t get north of 12.5, then you have to think that Connor didn’t take a hometown discount.

  61. Kinger_Oil.redux says:

    leadfarmer,

    – I’m in this boat as well, which isn’t surprising: we tend to see things similar often

    – If you get Hoffman, RNH is gone next year IMO. Unless you can get Ottawa to take Strome, Maroon & Letetsu, we retain salary + send picks: 3 expiring contracts, all 3 are replaceable IMO:

    Lucic-CmD-Pool
    Hoffman-Drai-Sleppy
    Jar-RNH-Cami
    Caggs-Malone-Kassian

    – And next year you find CheapoVet C for 4rth line, and 3rd line winger (Kailer?)

    – Then other players get the Letetsu PP minutes as well, which ain’t so bad…

  62. Bobcaygeon says:

    leadfarmer: Eberle Hall Reinhart trades are all in the past now.Just because you lost a previous trade doesn’t mean you can’t win a future trade

    History tells us he doesn’t win the big trades as much as he loses.

  63. Marc says:

    A couple of thoughts on this:
    – Moving Hoffman might not be just a hockey deal for Ottawa. In this: https://www.tsn.ca/melnyk-senators-could-look-good-somewhere-else-1.945672 TSN reports a rumour that Ottawa had trouble meeting staff payroll, which Melnyk denied. TSN is the local rights holder for the Senators. There’s no way they would have mentioned the rumour in the story unless they were pretty confident that there was something there.
    – A 2018 second round pick, young roster player (Caggiula/Khaira/Slepyshev) and a prospect (Bear/Jones/Benson) would be a terrible, terrible hockey deal for Ottawa, but it’s that’s the kind of deal you get when you don’t want to/can’t take money back.
    – Whether or not Chia moves for Hoffman, I’m glad he’s talking to Dorion. Friedman’s story about the Duchene a few months ago said that it was the product of months of conversations between Dorion, Poile and Sakic. The more Chia knows about who Dorion values in the Oilers system, the better placed he’ll be to talk about Karlsson when Dorion realises that he can’t re-sign him.

  64. JD_Sigh says:

    Woogie63: I think we really don’t know what we have with;

    … Nurse…

    Paging Dr Pouzar to the OR – Dr Pouzar…

  65. treevojo says:

    Thinker: He could have asked for 15, but that doesn’t mean he gets it. His cap hit is almost 25% higher than the next closest player (Kane), so you would have to argue he is 25% better. Not sure that is the case. It was an overpay for someone who was selling RFA years. McDavid is at the price point where you may be able to realistically replace him with two players for the same cap hit, and that is never a good place to be. Connor got paid in full and then some. Let nobody tell you different.

    If you are unconvinced, wait for the Karlsson deal. If he doesn’t get north of 12.5, then you have to think that Connor didn’t take a hometown discount.

    The fact that Connor signed for 8 prime years is a deal at any price.

    Anybody that argues other wise has no clue what they are talking about.

    How old is Karlsson and what years are you paying for?

  66. Woodguy v2.0 says:

    Scungilli Slushy:
    If they trade Strome and a 3rd for Hoffman, that would be Eberle, Strome and a 3rd for Hoffman. Chiarelli wouldn’t look to good in that light. End cap savings 812,500.

    That’s not how that works.

    Strome on either side of the ledger cancels out.

    Eberle + 3rd for Hoffman

  67. Pouzar says:

    JD_Sigh: Paging Dr Pouzar to the OR – Dr Pouzar…

    Can’t fix that.

  68. littleenglish says:

    Thinker,

    If Kane signed today, his cap hit would be 11M, which is about 10 percent less than McDavid’s. Kane also had 10 percent less points than McDavid last year. Sounds a lot better doesn’t it.

  69. Thinker says:

    treevojo: The fact that Connor signed for 8 prime years is a deal at any price.

    Anybody that argues other wise has no clue what they are talking about.

    How old is Karlsson and what years are you paying for?

    So we can’t compare to a player in their prime, and we can’t compare to anyone else’s second contract. Makes sense… Praise Chia, peace be upon him.

  70. Pouzar says:

    Atta boy Fiala.
    2-0 NSH

  71. Woodguy v2.0 says:

    leadfarmer,

    Mcdavid Draisatl overpayments.

    Thinking McDavid at 12.5 is an overpay isn’t the nadir of hockey opinions, but its close.

  72. Thinker says:

    littleenglish:
    Thinker,

    If Kane signed today, his cap hit would be 11M, which is about 10 percent less than McDavid’s.Kane also had 10 percent less points than McDavid last year. Sounds a lot better doesn’t it.

    Exactly. Best case scenario is that you can argue we paid exactly what he was worth. There was no reacharound here from connor.

  73. treevojo says:

    Thinker: So we can’t compare to a player in their prime, and we can’t compare to anyone else’s second contract. Makes sense… Praise Chia, peace be upon him.

    Sure compare Mcdavids second contract to other players like him.

    Problem is there is only one McDavid.

    Crosby is probably the closest.

    We can use him.

    Crosbys second contract at the time of signing took a larger percentage of the cap for only 5 years.

    Crosby 17.3%

    McDavid 16.67%

    We got a bargain.

    But carry on with the cheek.

  74. littleenglish says:

    Thinker: Exactly. Best case scenario is that you can argue we paid exactly what he was worth. There was no reacharound here from connor.

    No argument here, but it invalidates the op. Also I think we can say the marketplace has changed. A Karlsson also gets paid exactly what he’s worth, instead of an overpayment.

  75. prefonmich says:

    The hilarious part of all this Hoffman talk is that we just traded a sniper at close to the same salary (900,000 more) who is about the same size and very similar style player. (I say this admittedly not having watched a ton of Mike Hoffman as I am a pure Oilers fan not so much into watching other teams).

    Most of the point of trading Eberle was the cap savings which was not needed this year and only affects the team next year (last year of Eberle’s 6m contract).
    Trading for Mike Hoffman would get us back a shooter, albeit a left-handed one vs right-handed Eberle and would take back the cap savings.

    Given all this trading history back story the most Hoffman should be traded for is Strome + a lower draft pick to compensate for the ‘savings’. No way Ottawa would take this deal but no way Chia should pay much more without it looking very bad on his part.

    Overpaying for other teams’ snipers while trading ours away for pennies on the dollar in the name of cap savings MUST STOP! Chia needs to continue on the path he charted which appears to be all in on McD and Drai while complimenting with less expensive players, building young, cheaper skill through the draft over time. If he reverses this path now by overpaying for a skilled shooter he will be the author of his own demise IMHO.

  76. JD_Sigh says:

    Woodguy v2.0: but its close

    Every crowd has a sliver lining.

  77. Pouzar says:

    “Oilers winger Jesse Puljujarvi is taking reps with the club’s second power play unit.”

    oilers.nhl.com

  78. Pouzar says:

    Jack Michaels‏Verified account
    @EdmontonJack
    36s37 seconds ago

    Logan Couture (15 goals) won’t play tomorrow for the Sharks.

  79. OriginalPouzar says:

    Larsson is likely to be activated tomorrow and, with noone going on waivers today, I think Slep may be assigned to Bakersfield to make the roster spot.

    Slepy needs to play one more game before he loses his waiver exemption status – I’m guess that is the reason he’s been healthy scratched recently.

    I would personally rather lose Walker on waivers (he would have to be exposed and, from accounts, there were multiple claims for him) then send down Slep but I think the organization likes Walker and don’t want to expose him.

    I also don’t think they want to risk losing Gryba at this point as he is good depth – he will likely be exposed once Sekera is ready if we are healthy.

  80. OriginalPouzar says:

    Klef not on the ice for practice today – given how much he played last night and with the knowledge that he’s been hurt all year, its likely a maintenance day.

    Sekera is playing on PP1 in Klef’s absence.

    On another note, Puljijarvi is on PP2 in place of Cammy at practice today.

  81. Pouzar says:

    I will not talk about Slepy today. I will not talk about Slepy today. I will not talk about Slepy today. I will not talk about Slepy today. I will not talk about Slepy today. I will not talk about Slepy today. I will not talk about Slepy today. I will not talk about Slepy today. I will not talk about Slepy today. I will not talk about Slepy today. I will not talk about Slepy today. I will not talk about Slepy today. I will not talk about Slepy today. I will not talk about Slepy today. I will not talk about Slepy today. I will not talk about Slepy today.

  82. Professor Q says:

    Pouzar:
    “Oilers winger Jesse Puljujarvi is taking reps with the club’s second power play unit.”

    oilers.nhl.com

    I hope he scores.

  83. JD_Sigh says:

    Pouzar: Puljujarvi is taking reps with the club’s second power play

    Is it getting hot in here?

  84. Pouzar says:

    OriginalPouzar: On another note, Puljijarvi is on PP2 in place of Cammy at practice today.

    Yer rusty.

    welcome back.

  85. JD_Sigh says:

    OriginalPouzar: On another note, OP is back.

  86. jtblack says:

    OriginalPouzar,

    OP! you are back.

    Once everyone is healthy there will be lots of comp for ice time. Whether PC deserves any credit is for another day; but this is a welcome site for this franchise; after the decade of darkness

  87. JimmyV1965 says:

    Pouzar:
    Jack Michaels‏Verified account
    @EdmontonJack36s37 seconds ago

    Logan Couture (15 goals) won’t play tomorrow for the Sharks.

    WooHoo!!!!! Awesome news. If we beat these guys it’s absolutely huge.

  88. Bill says:

    Good to see you back OP

  89. NYC-Back-to-Tokyo Oil (Gentleman Backpacker) says:

    Pouzar:
    Atta boy Fiala.
    2-0 NSH

    ? Are you on tape delay?

  90. Pouzar says:

    NYC-Back-to-Tokyo Oil (Gentleman Backpacker): ? Are you on tape delay?

    Was that yesterday lol?

  91. VOR says:

    Kinger_Oil.Redux,

    How do you find players of high marginal utility?

    Well what I did is develop a screening test.

    1. Pick a study league (you have to go league by league)

    2. Adjust all draft eligible players seasonal outcomes in terms of points to reflect them playing a full season of games on an average offensive team in their league.

    3. Look for the 5 to 10 players in the study league whose points totals have moved up the most.

    4. Develop adjusted plus minus rankings for each team (relative plus/minus – I call it).

    5. Adjust the relative plus minus for average defensive performance by a league average team.

    6. Look for the 5 to 10 players whose plus/minus numbers change the most.

    7. Look for players who are on both lists.

    8. Now go scout those players. Also, where possible look for w/wo game data – team win records for example.

    9. The scout looks for in game play, particularly 200 foot game, unselfishness with the puck, prepared to go to the hard areas of the ice, thinks the game quickly. But mostly positive events when the players is on the ice, particularly those involving the player directly.

    10. The stronger the league the more impressive it is to be a high marginal utility player.

    Thus we come to Tyler Benson of the Vancouver Giants. Benson ends up the 5th highest ranked draft eligible player in terms of offence and the 3rd highest ranked player in relative +/- among draft eligible players.

    I am not saying Benson belonged in the second round. I believe the first two rounds should be attempts at superstars. Take the most talented player available, no exceptions. But he should have gone in the first 4 or 5 picks of the third round. If we ignore his injury history his numbers scream long stay NHL player who will find ways to help his NHL team win games.

    I will talk about injuries and factoring them into the draft at length in a later post.

    For now I am trying to focus on how scouts and GMs can find useful pieces in a draft where only half the players will ever play a single game in the NHL.

  92. anjinsan says:

    Not knowing who Hoffman is, I read up…5th rounder who developed well.
    Jeez, and we’re talking of coughing up major assets for him?
    So, whatever the direction, Edmonton gets fleeced. Shit!
    Scheifele signed 8 years for 6.15/year and he drivers his line all the time and carries games frequently. We sign someone for 8.5/year and he needs zooming?
    Grumble grumble fret fret.

  93. OriginalPouzar says:

    Confirmed Jesse is going on the PP – McLellan says he’s progressed and he’s ready. Earning PP time is more than just ability in the offensive zone but communication in the neutral zone on the break in, etc.:

    https://twitter.com/ReidWilkins/status/942495620832493568

  94. Pouzar says:

    anjinsan: and he drivers his line all the time

    He is runnin 47.7% CF close(-2.7 rel).

    He is a sniper but not sure how much he dominates play.

  95. Pouzar says:

    JP on a 30 goal pace…hopefully the PP push keeps him there or close to that.

  96. Crazy Pedestrian says:

    anjinsan,

    Jets got lucky. Signed him long term for cheap the year before his stats exploded…
    Oilers could have tried (and probably did try) to do a long term deal with drai, but maybe we’re leaning on the cautious side, and I have the feeling that drai’s camp held off real talks until they knew for sure they were getting the best deal they could get (unfortunately)

  97. frjohnk says:

    Pouzar:
    JP on a 30 goal pace…hopefully the PP push keeps him there or close to that.

    Will be interesting contract wise, if JP has arrived and plays with McDavid for majority of his ELC and lights it up.

  98. Pescador says:

    Thinker: .
    But teams don’t trade scorers for Ryan Strome.

    Exception being the Oilers

  99. Chris says:

    The Oilers have 60.99 million committed to the cap next year of a cap the NHL is currently projecting to be between 78 to 82 million. The players on the roster who need new deals are in Maroon, Nurse, Strome, Camilari, Caggulia, Slephishev, Letestu, Benning, Avetu, Davidson and Broistoit.

    The good news is Mark Fayne and Laurie Korpovoski are coming off the cap. The bad news is we are still paying Pouliot 1.33 million to be productive elsewhere.

    Thus we have 16 to 20 million to fill 10 roster spots. I think we can safely say we have at least 18 million on the basis that the players union has shown a preference for escalating salaries and not really caring about escrow beyond the grumbling.

    For the sake of argument I’ll say we have 18 million to sign the 10 players.

    Nurse is probably going to require the most substantial raise. If the Oilers are smart they probably try to sign him to a long term deal for around 4 million for the next 7 years. Although it’s possible he could get a bridge deal at more like 3 million.

    Maroon probably wishes that he’d been a UFA this summer when he was coming off a big season.This year he is on pace to score around twenty goals, Which remains nothing to sneeze at. Realistically if the Oilers want to bring him back it will cost between 3.5 and 4 million.

    I don’t think Strome really has much of an argument for a substantial raise. You might have to give him 2.7

    Letestu is going to cost around the same 2 million that he does now. He’s 32 though and a local boy it’s possible that you could get him to take lower money if you offered a longer term..

    Unfortunately that’s about 13 million on 4 of the 10 players. On the plus side you can probably bring back Davidson and Benning for 3 million combined. Then you need four players for 2 million. (The players union may really help out here by making it 4 million).

    So the point of this exercise if this, if the players union uses the escalator and we hit 82 million, we could hypothetically bring everyone back with appropriate raises. Otherwise we are looking at skimping at the end of the roster or moving someone.

    A few thoughts immediately emerge, can you really have 5 defensemen all making north of 4 million under the cap? Can you afford a 2 million dollar 4th line centre? How ugly are those Lucic and Russell contracts? We could really have used them grinding a million to a million and a half off that Draisaddle contract.

  100. frjohnk says:

    anjinsan: We sign someone for 8.5/year and he needs zooming?

    I like Khaira but he is not a top 6 player, either is Strome. Few players in the league could drive a line with those two on it, so I dont fault Drai for having trouble driving a line when he does not have much to play with.

    Scheifle has had Blake Wheeler on his right side for most of the year. That is a huge upgrade on Strome. On Scheifles left side he has had Kyle Connor, a talented rookie or Nicolas Ehlers. Again Scheifle has the upgrade on the wing compared to Drai.

    There would be no issue of Drai driving a line if he had a linemates like Scheifles has.

  101. OriginalPouzar says:

    The Nurse contract and the Strome contracts are the material one’s .

    Its been huge for this team to see Nurse take a step forward but its doubled his projected cap hit starting next year.

    Strome needs to be qualified at his $2.5M (or maybe even at 10% higher than that), so we’ll probably see him sign a 2-3 year deal at $2.7M, give or take.

    The rest of the RFAs (Caggulia, Brossoit, Slep, Benning) need to come in very cheap.

    Letestu can only be re-signed if he take a pay-cut and, even so, I think the plan must be to have Khaira fill that 4C and PK role next season for much cheaper. He;s been fine on the “3rd line” but we are a better team if he’s a 4th liner.

    Maroon, I just can’t see him fitting in – if we make a run for the playoffs and are within spitting distance in February, we’ll have to risk losing him for nothing – if we are clearly out that he will be sold for futures.

  102. Marc says:

    Chris:

    Nurse is probably going to require the most substantial raise. If the Oilers are smart they probably try to sign him to a long term deal for around 4 million for the next 7 years. Although it’s possible he could get a bridge deal at more like 3 million

    I wouldn’t necessarily assume Nurse (or Benning for that matter) gets much of a raise.

    Torey Krug effectively made his NHL debut in the playoffs (he played one regular season game) in the first year of his ELC, and ended up scoring 10 points in 15 games.

    In his first full season the following year, he had 14 goals and 26 assists, was named to the NHL’s All Rookie Team, was the top scoring rookie defenseman in the league and was 4th in the league in the goals amongst rookies. The final year of his ELC, he followed that up with 12 goals and 27 assists and was +28.

    Guess how much of a raise Chia gave him for that spectacularly productive run?

    $400K

    Krug went from earning $1M in salary and signing bonus, plus up to $850K in performance bonuses on his ELC, to earning $1.4M in salary and signing bonus, with no performance bonuses, in his first RFA year.

  103. JimmyV1965 says:

    Chris:
    The Oilers have 60.99 million committed to the cap next year of a cap the NHL is currently projecting to be between 78 to 82 million. The players on the roster who need new deals are in Maroon, Nurse, Strome, Camilari, Caggulia, Slephishev, Letestu, Benning, Avetu, Davidson and Broistoit.

    The good news is Mark Fayne and Laurie Korpovoski are coming off the cap. The bad news is we are still paying Pouliot 1.33 million to be productive elsewhere.

    Thus we have 16 to 20 million to fill 10 roster spots. I think we can safely say we have at least 18 million on the basis that the players union has shown a preference for escalating salaries and not really caring about escrow beyond the grumbling.

    For the sake of argument I’ll say we have 18 million to sign the 10 players.

    Nurse is probably going to require the most substantial raise. If the Oilers are smart they probably try to sign him to a long term deal for around 4 million for the next 7 years. Although it’s possible he could get a bridge deal at more like 3 million.

    Maroon probably wishes that he’d been a UFA this summer when he was coming off a big season.This year he is on pace to score around twenty goals, Which remains nothing to sneeze at. Realistically if the Oilers want to bring him back it will cost between 3.5 and 4 million.

    I don’t think Strome really has much of an argument for a substantial raise. You might have to give him 2.7

    Letestu is going to cost around the same 2 million that he does now. He’s 32 though and a local boy it’s possible that you could get him to take lower money if you offered a longer term..

    Unfortunately that’s about 13 million on 4 of the 10 players. On the plus side you can probably bring back Davidson and Benning for 3 million combined. Then you need four players for 2 million. (The players union may really help out here by making it 4 million).

    So the point of this exercise if this, if the players union uses the escalator and we hit 82 million, we could hypothetically bring everyone back with appropriate raises. Otherwise we are looking at skimping at the end of the roster or moving someone.

    A few thoughts immediately emerge, can you really have 5 defensemen all making north of 4 million under the cap? Can you afford a 2 million dollar 4th line centre? How ugly are those Lucic and Russell contracts? We could really have used them grinding a million to a million and a half off that Draisaddle contract.

    The Oilers should absolutely let Strome and Letestu walk if costs $4.7 mill. Id much rather have Maroon at $4 mill and a warm body at $1 million than those two at $4.7

  104. JimmyV1965 says:

    Unless something changes dramatically, sign Benning for league minimum. Strome, Benning, Letestu, Sleppy, the Drake, Davidson et all, they are replacement level players at this point. Things may change over the course of the season, but that’s what they are right now. League min for all of them.

  105. Thinker says:

    Strome isn’t getting 2.7. If anything, the oil let him go ufa then resign him. Nobody in their right mind gives a player with Strome’s toolbox that much money. He is only useful offensively, and can’t even do that at a high level.

    Caggiula might be out of town by next year, or in the A.

  106. Kinger_Oil.redux says:

    Chris,

    – You wonder how ugly Russel & Lucic contracts are?

    – This year, Ruusel is full-value for $4MM, Lucic is full-value @ $6MM. They are not overpaid

    – Who knows what happens in the future (virtually everyone here has a crystal ball that says that those contracts are both going be be unmovable boat-anchors in the future).

    – Why does everyone have to do an analysis on the future based on BS assumptions on what players are worth in the future:

    – In 3 years, Lucic is 32, Russel 33. There are tons of wingers who are big time at 32, and tons of D who are not falling off cliffs at 33.

    – Ovie is 32, and hasn’t fallen off. Phaneuf at 32 is very very effective. Staois and Smytty why not? Cherry picking for sure, but why be certain that they are bona-fide future boat anchors?

    -No one has a crystal ball: I bet both will be very productive and useful in 3 years, and totally valuable players on this team or elsewhere…

    * neither Ebs or Hall had the ability to coach up a Pool. Big time coach is helping there a lot, as is Lucic: that’s a for real fact

    – They can trade Lucic in 3years, and while his salary is $6, his cap is 3, and his NTC is modified

    – They can trade Russel in 2years, and while his salary is $4, his cap is 1.5: those are smart GM moves, not overpays for bot-anchors: rather contingencies built it: that’s a smart GM IMO

    – They are going to be flexible and cheap options if need be for teams needing to get to cap, future expansion, lock-out if need be

  107. jtblack says:

    Kinger_Oil.redux,

    “Staois and Smytty why not? Cherry picking for sure, ”

    Smytty is perfect example. Teams bidding for his services as UFA Look at his stats AFTER he signed his $6 Mil per season; he never came close to the production PRIOR to He was still useful for a couple years, but never close to the expectations

  108. OriginalPouzar says:

    Thinker:
    Strome isn’t getting 2.7. If anything, the oil let him go ufa then resign him. Nobody in their right mind gives a player with Strome’s toolbox that much money. He is only useful offensively, and can’t even do that at a high level.

    Caggiula might be out of town by next year, or in the A.

    I don’t foresee them not qualifying Strome and letting that happen – he will likely accept his QO on a 2-year term.

  109. OriginalPouzar says:

    I’ve never really bought in to the verbal that Lucic is going to fall off a cliff during the term of his contract.

    He has been extremely durable over his career (missing only a handful of games in his entire pro career) and his game is not built on speed or “great hands”.

    If anything, I think Lucic will be able to maintain his level of play throughout most of his contract.

    The question is if that level of play is what we’ve seen in the last 10 games or his firs 100 as an Oiler.

  110. Kinger_Oil.redux says:

    jtblack:
    Kinger_Oil.redux,

    “Staois and Smytty why not? Cherry picking for sure, ”

    Smytty is perfect example. Teams bidding for his services as UFA Look at his stats AFTER he signed his $6 Mil per season; he never came close to the production PRIOR toHe was still useful for a couple years, but never close to the expectations

    – Ryan Smyth was a 20 goal 50 point player at 32, 33, 34, 35…

    – But for sure Lucic is a boat anchor, and no one gives Chia credit for the structure of his bonus/salary/NTC as the years progress?

    – Lucic can be just as effective as Smytty at 34:

    – I think I’m the only one who recognizes this as a possibility: everyone else is for sure he will be sh$t, and not moveable boat anchor. I disagree on potential future ability and future structure.

    – Sure I’d love it if there was less term on Lucic. I bet Chia did as well. I don’t think Chia was an idiot and paid more term and salary than everyone else because he is dumb, I think he did it because that was what the market to win. And so he got concessions on potentially moving him for cheap later on

    – Look at Russel’s contract: everyone says its $4MM. After next year his contract is attractive. I think he will be still effective then.

  111. Pouzar says:

    JimmyV1965: The Oilers should absolutely let Strome and Letestu walk if costs $4.7 mill. Id much rather have Maroon at $4 mill and a warm body at $1 million than those two at $4.7

    +100000000000000

  112. blainer says:

    Pouzar: Can’t fix that.

    Lol… Ok Pouzar I’m going to test your loyalty to Nurse who I have also become a very big fan of…

    Would you trade Nurse straight up for Erik Karlsson ?

  113. leadfarmer says:

    Woodguy v2.0:
    leadfarmer,

    Mcdavid Draisatl overpayments.

    Thinking McDavid at 12.5 is an overpay isn’t the nadir of hockey opinions, but its close.

    You do not pay a RFA 20% more than the highest paid player in the league. If you are not screwing your RFAs out of money you are not doing things right. So this isn’t 20% more than the highest paid players, because those players you were buying all UFA years. And sure he could have asked for more but no one does because this isn’t basketball were you can give max contracts to 2-3 guys and fill em with cheap players. You need 23 guys and most of them have to be pretty good.
    Nadir of though, pffft. I’m guessing you’d give McDavid and Drai 15 mil contracts and let everything fall into place

  114. JD_Sigh says:

    blainer: Pouzar I’m going to test your loyalty to Nurse

    Ooh! Wait!

    I gotta make some popcorn for this.

    BRB

  115. Woodguy v2.0 says:

    leadfarmer,

    You do not pay a RFA 20% more than the highest paid player in the league.

    Who’s Connor McDavid?

    Just some RFA the team should put the screws to.

    Also,

    That contract is value the moment it becomes active and assuming health is ridiculously value from a $85MM cap forward.

    Crosby’s RFA contract was 15.3% of the cap the year it went into effect.

    If the cap is $80 then McDavid is 15.6% of the cap.

    Yeah, nadir.

  116. Gerta Rauss says:

    Strome’s cap hit is $2.5 this year, but capfriendly has his salary at $3M, so his next contract starts with a 3 unless he agrees to sign for less money

    He’s show some flashes this year but I haven’t been overly impressed with him-if push comes to shove I’d let him walk or move him for a modest draft pick and move on

    If the cap increase allows us to keep Nuge, Strome is expendable imo

  117. Kinger_Oil.redux says:

    blainer:

    Would you trade Nurse straight up for Erik Karlsson ?

    – Is that for minature Nurse, or full-sized Nurse? Minature Nurse, maybe, full-sized Nurse, no way

  118. JD_Sigh says:

    Woodguy v2.0: If the cap is $80 then McDavid is 15.6% of the cap.

    Going back to last season, the Oilers scored 247 goals and McDavid had 100 points.

    Doesn’t if follow then that he impacted the team’s production by a factor of 100/247, or 40.4%?

    Dear indeed.

  119. leadfarmer says:

    Woodguy v2.0:
    leadfarmer,

    You do not pay a RFA 20% more than the highest paid player in the league.

    Who’s Connor McDavid?

    Just some RFA the team should put the screws to.

    Also,

    That contract is value the moment it becomes active and assuming health is ridiculously value from a $85MM cap forward.

    Crosby’s RFA contract was 15.3% of the cap the year it went into effect.

    If the cap is $80 then McDavid is 15.6% of the cap.

    Yeah, nadir.

    Crosby signed his during rapid cap expansion. The cap has been stagnant. The only reason it’s been going up is because of the escalator which screwed players over with existing contracts. But you magically predicted an 85 million dollar cap, what are the lotto numbers Nostradamus. That is a 10 mil rise in salary cap that no one could have predicted at the time the contract was signed.

  120. Kinger_Oil.redux says:

    leadfarmer: Crosby signed his during rapid cap expansion.The cap has been stagnant.The only reason it’s been going up is because of the escalator which screwed players over with existing contracts.But you magically predicted an 85 million dollar cap,what are the lotto numbers Nostradamus.That is a 10 mil rise in salary cap that no one could have predicted at the time the contract was signed.

    – It’s great to see WG defending Chia!

    – I would bet a lot that the GM’s has great visibility into future cap: the league would for sure be providing guidance on this, based on best projections (and for sure not sharing this with the players)

    – Lead: at sub-16% of cap, its really not an overpay for the guy who sweeps the trophies in his second year of the league, and has a top-end gear that is such a game-changer in this league of me-too’s. For sure he is more dangerous than Crosby at the same age, IMO, and deserves a premium, and he signed for 8 years: Crosby did not.

  121. leadfarmer says:

    Woodguy v2.0,

    Plus no one said put screws to. Could have easily paid him 11.5 mil per. His contract was decreased from the initial reports because it was even higher.
    How much negotiating do you think Chia actually did. Seems like he gave Russell and McDavid a piece of paper to write down what they want and gave them their wish. At least with Drai he probably did it couple of times before giving in.
    But Edmonton has this complex. Must give in right away or things may get uncomfortable and then they may want to leave and we’ll be the laughing stock again

  122. JD_Sigh says:

    leadfarmer: Could have easily paid him 11.5 mil per.

    Based on…? Your assertion?

    If you’re not going to dig up, quit digging.

  123. Chris says:

    Marc: I wouldn’t necessarily assume Nurse (or Benning for that matter) gets much of a raise.

    Torey Krug effectively made his NHL debut in the playoffs (he played one regular season game) in the first year of his ELC, and ended up scoring 10 points in 15 games.

    In his first full season the following year, he had 14 goals and 26 assists, was named to the NHL’s All Rookie Team, was the top scoring rookie defenseman in the league and was 4th in the league in the goals amongst rookies. The final year of his ELC, he followed that up with 12 goals and 27 assists andwas +28.

    Guess how much of a raise Chia gave him for that spectacularly productive run?

    $400K

    Krug went from earning $1M in salary and signing bonus, plus up to $850K in performance bonuses on his ELC, to earning $1.4M in salary and signing bonus, with no performance bonuses, in his first RFA year.

    Torey Krug was also 5’9 and not a high first round pick. So I think there is some reason to expect slightly different outcomes with respect to salary.

  124. texmex says:

    Did anyone listen to TMacs post practice presser?

    I didn’t get the sense that larsson will play tomorrow.

    I’m pretty eager to see this team with Reggie and Larsson on the blue.

  125. frjohnk says:

    Chia conversation with McDavid about his contract last summer.

    “Hey Connor, its Peter Chiarelli, Ive come up with a number for your upcoming contract that I think you will like.”

    McDavid says “OK, sounds good.”

    Chia says ” yeah, Id like to give you $30 Million per year over 25 years .

    McDavid “huh, I dont think a person can be paid $30 Million, its too much. CBA wont allow for it. And 8 years is the max amount of years for a contract.

    Chia ” oh yeah right, $30 Million is probably too much. How about $15 Million per year?”

    McDavid ” well, I was kinda thinking $9.7Million per year for 8 years. I think it would kinda be neat with my number and all.

    Chia ” fine I’ll just give you a $12.5 Million over 8 years, final offer.

    McDavid “is that maybe a bit much I dont want the team in cap trouble”

    Chia ” There’s one other guy I believe in hockey today that is still working in the game that has had more cap trouble teams than me. So I think I know a little bit about cap trouble teams.”

    McDavid ” Ok Im coming in to sign.”

    Chia looks at MacT ” man, am I good at dealing with these contracts.

    *MacT puts a helmut on for the first time*

  126. leadfarmer says:

    JD_Sigh: Based on…? Your assertion?

    If you’re not going to dig up, quit digging.

    Dig what? There is absolutely nothing to dig. Using Crosby in a very different cap world is comparing apples and oranges.

    Also this got completely sidetracked. Doesn’t matter if you think McDavid should have signed for 10.4 mil or 15 mil, the whole point of my original post was that with our contract situation there is absolutely no way we can do Hoffman for futures. If we get Hoffman then Nuge has to go. If not him then a defenseman. With our contracts McDavid can’t have a 5 mil winger to cash his scoring chances and then another 4-6 mil winger to protect him from goonery. He’s going to have to produce with a rolling cast of wingers who need replacement every few years as their contract demands due to inflated point totals from playing with McDavid in the first place.

  127. Chris says:

    Kinger_Oil.redux:
    Chris,

    – You wonder how ugly Russel & Lucic contracts are?

    – This year, Ruusel is full-value for $4MM, Lucic is full-value @ $6MM.They are not overpaid

    – Who knows what happens in the future (virtually everyone here has a crystal ball that says that those contracts are both going be be unmovable boat-anchors in the future).

    – Why does everyone have to do an analysis on the future based on BS assumptions on what players are worth in the future:

    – In 3 years, Lucic is 32, Russel 33.There are tons of wingers who are big time at 32, and tons of D who are not falling off cliffs at 33.

    – Ovie is 32, and hasn’t fallen off.Phaneuf at 32 is very very effective. Staois and Smytty why not? Cherry picking for sure, but why be certain that they are bona-fidefuture boat anchors?

    -No one has a crystal ball: I bet both will be very productive and useful in 3 years, and totally valuable players on this team or elsewhere…

    * neither Ebs or Hall had the ability to coach up a Pool.Big time coach is helping there a lot, as is Lucic: that’s a for real fact

    – They can trade Lucic in 3years, and while his salary is $6, his cap is 3, and his NTC is modified

    – They can trade Russel in 2years, and while his salary is $4, his cap is 1.5: those are smart GM moves, not overpays for bot-anchors: rather contingencies built it: that’s a smart GM IMO

    – They are going to be flexible and cheap options if need be for teams needing to get to cap, future expansion, lock-out if need be

    If $4 million pays for leading the league in own goals Kinger, I guess you may have a point about Russell. The best thing you can say about Kris Russell is that this year his advanced stats are not as horrible as they have been in the past.

    With respect to neither Eberle or Hall being able to coach Puljuarvi, that could be true but it makes no sense to say Lucic can. That’s based on what they have played a few games on the same line versus two guys whom never played on the same line as him? Taylor Hall seems to be playing really well with Nico Hischler. Is there any evidence that Hall’s apparent expertise in bringing along Swiss Centremen somehow fails to translate to Finnish right wingers?

    Eberle obviously wasn’t going to play with Puljuarvi as they play the same position. However, I find it pretty hilarious that everyone is embracing the idea of trading for Mike Hoffman whom is basically a left handed version of Jordan Eberle whom has never played in the western conference.

    Lucic already looks almost too slow to be playing in the NHL. If that is not a huge risk for someone on a six million dollar deal I don’t know what is. He’s producing again at a 50 point pace but both those factors really question the wisdom of sliding out Hall for Lucic. The odds of Lucic slowing down further in the duration of that contract are pretty good as he’s signed till he’s 34. He’s basically one lower body injury causing him to lose half a step away from being a costly buy out.

  128. GMB3 says:

    Big time coaching, but a 28th place team. Lol

  129. Pouzar says:

    blainer: Lol… Ok Pouzar I’m going to test your loyalty to Nurse who I have also become a very big fan of…

    Would you trade Nurse straight up for Erik Karlsson ?

    Why do you hate me? 😛

  130. Pouzar says:

    Kinger_Oil.redux: But for sure Lucic is a boat anchor, and no one gives Chia credit for the structure of his bonus/salary/NTC as the years progress?

    Out of my element when it comes to this stuff but isn’t Lucic’s cap hit $6 mil across the board?

  131. HT Joe says:

    Pouzar: Out of my element when it comes to this stuff but isn’t Lucic’s cap hit $6 mil across the board?

    https://www.capfriendly.com/players/milan-lucic

    I’m not that good about this stuff either, but it looks like while Lucic’s salary and annual signing bonus drops, his cap hit remains a constant $6M/yr.

  132. HT Joe says:

    TheVengeFulOne: Yeah, but actual salary decreases, which might make him appealing to a Phoenix type team. Doesn’t make a difference for 80% of teams. It’s basically just something those with Stockholm syndrome keep telling themselves.

    Beat me to it.

  133. Pouzar says:

    TheVengeFulOne: Yeah, but actual salary decreases, which might make him appealing to a Phoenix type team.

    This makes sense thx.

  134. fishman says:

    Just catching up.

    Good to see you back OP!

  135. Bling says:

    Late to the Hoffman talk, but how about this:

    Primary points / 60 minutes at evens tells me who is driving the play and/or who the play is running through.

    Last year, Hoffman was 40th in the NHL amongst forwards who played at least 600 minutes, neck and neck with Max Pacioretty and Brandon Saad, and ahead of Artemi Panarin (source: Corsica). We don’t think of him — or at least, I don’t think of him — in the same kind of company as those players, but he is.

    To put this into further context: last year, Hoffman’s primary points / 60 was 1.68. Taylor Hall’s was 1.26. Now, Hall had a bit of an off-year (by his standards) last season, but still, incredible play by Hoffman.

    Chia should be all over this. This guy is a driver.

  136. flyfish1168 says:

    F**k I HATE the Phlegms

  137. Kinger_Oil.redux says:

    Pouzar: Out of my element when it comes to this stuff but isn’t Lucic’s cap hit $6 mil across the board?

    – Cap it is, but salary way less: smart: you pay him a lot less, but get the $6MM credit

    – Innovative trades take advantage of the cash vs. cap delta all the time. That’s a smart GM structuring job IMO:

    – Same re: Russel: so lazy of so many to say 4×4 = over-pay boat anchor IMO. Details matter

    – It wasn’t you but Chris re: Russel: I don’t see how one can argue that he isn’t full value this year: corsi and fenwick above 50% (even though I don’t love those as measures, that’s what we got). His offense has been solid. He’s PDO of 983 is unfortunate.

    – As for the 28th team: really one goal for every 3 games played (1% shooting), and 1 save more every 3 games (1% save increase), and this team is way ahead of last year and near the top

    – There has been a lot of bad luck and injury and bad goalering: team is a lot better than record IMO

  138. Munny says:

    frjohnk: Scheifle has had Blake Wheeler on his right side for most of the year. That is a huge upgrade on Strome. On Scheifles left side he has had Kyle Connor, a talented rookie or Nicolas Ehlers. Again Scheifle has the upgrade on the wing compared to Drai.
    There would be no issue of Drai driving a line if he had a linemates like Scheifles has.

    You seem to know an awful lot about the Jets… and Pouzar’s living room.

    Coincidence?

    I think not.

  139. Munny says:

    If you had to guess a player the Sens would like to trade to make their roster issues more palatable, isn’t Dion Phaneuf at the very top of the list?

  140. frjohnk says:

    Munny: You seem to know an awful lot about the Jets… and Pouzar’s living room.

    Coincidence?

    I think not.

    Jets second fav team after Oil.

    Pouzar gets mad when I go into the living room.
    So I just stay in his kitchen.

  141. 99217 says:

    Munny,

    I would assume Bobby Ryan is right near the top of that list as well.

  142. Munny says:

    99217:
    Munny,

    I would assume Bobby Ryan is right near the top of that list as well.

    Agreed, albeit even less liquid.

  143. Chris says:

    Russell’s fenwick is below 50% when I looked yesterday it was at 48% which is significantly above his historical average and likely to regress in an unfortunate direction.

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