That song about the midway

The Oilers lost in Nashville last night but the effort was as good as we’ve seen since before Christmas. The season is gone, let there be no doubt, but the club was watchable and showed well 5×5 and in goal. Special teams continue to be a mess, the depth is atrocious, the skill breathes only on the McDavid line—and the team has the luck of the Irish, but that was a good game. For me, that counts. A fix will be required, and the general manager is going to have some tough work in summer, but the heart of rock and roll is still beating on the Edmonton Oilers.

THE ATHLETIC!

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 RED RUM, YEAR OVER YEAR

  • January 2016: 2-2-1, goal differential -2 (5 points)
  • January 2017: 2-3-0, goal differential -4 (4 points)
  • January 2018: 1-4-0, goal differential -13 (2 points)

The month remains expansion team ugly but last night is perhaps something to build on. I suspect this team is tiring of being humiliated and was duly engaged in Nashville. If they play like that in Arizona, we’ll see another win on Friday night.

 AFTER 44, YEAR OVER YEAR

  • Oilers 15-16: 17-23-4, goal differential -26 (38 points)
  • Oilers 16-17: 22-15-7, goal differential +7 (51 points)
  • Oilers 17-18: 18-23-3, goal differential -24 (39 points)
Edmonton is 12 points from last year’s team, that’s a lifetime. If the Oilers won 10 in a row, the club would still need to make up some ground, that’s the nature of the Bettman NHL.

 WHAT TO EXPECT FROM DECEMBER

  • At home to: Los Angeles, Anaheim (Expected 0-1-1) (Actual 1-1-0)
  • On the road to: Dallas, Chicago, Nashville, Arizona, Vegas (Expected 2-2-1) (Actual 0-3-0)
  • At home to: Vancouver, Buffalo, Calgary (Expected 2-1-0) (Actual 0-0-0)
  • Overall expected result: 4-4-2, 10 points in 10 games
  • Current results: 1-4-0, two points in five games

I can’t imagine the Edmonton Oilers standing pat for the rest of the season. This is beyond shocking and speaks to a mammoth misstep by management in summer (which we discussed but did not see as being an elevator shaft moment). We don’t know who pays for it, only that there will be a reckoning.

LAST NIGHT

I had some computer issues last night (thanks to my kids for saving my laptop) so I can’t give you the usual Full Monty. Here are some observations:

  • McDavid scored a beauty, could have had three and he’s a little pissed off based on his interview with Gene after the second. Looks to me as though 97 has built up a reasonable ‘to hell with this noise’ attitude so we could see something special this weekend.
  • Edmonton won the HD and Corsi 5×5 battle by a substantial (10-6 and 59 percent) margin but did not win either in the third period. That was disappointing.
  • The Oilers didn’t have much luck and didn’t get a call but there’s nothing you can do. Bring that effort more and the wins will come.
  • McDavid had 4 HDSC’s, Maroon 2, Nuge, Lucic, Cammalleri and Sekera one each. None from the youngsters not named McDavid.
  • Jesse Puljujarvi is not the same player on Nuge’s line, Todd McLellan has to put him back on the 97 line. Seriously. That’s a hill Peter Chiarelli should die on. It may not save his job, but it’s the right thing to do.
  • Talbot stopped 22 of 24, .917
  • NaturalStatTrick.
  • McDavid line was 6-3 in HD’s, clearly chem (it’s like Clapton and Duane Allman).
  • Nuge line was 4-1 in HD’s but the kid looks a little lost. Need to fix it schnell.
  • Khaira-Strome-Cammalleri looked good to me, I would like to see them again.
  • Nurse-Larsson were fine except for the head hit and immediately after. Put the Swedes back together.
  • Klefbom-Benning were rocking chair, Klefbom is finding the range now. Put the Swedes back together.
  • Sekera-Russell had a good evening, should play together again Friday. Put the Swedes back together.

GOD’S FLASHLIGHT

Remember, when looking at 5×5/60 scoring, I like to think of it this way. Top line at 2.00/60 or over and it would be nice if someone from the second line approached the number. For second line, 1.80+ is reasonable and then after that anyone at 1.50/60 on the third or fourth line (imo) is doing well.

  1. Connor McDavid 2.53
  2. Leon Draisaitl 2.37
  3. Milan Lucic 1.92
  4. Ryan Nugent-Hopkins 1.87
  5. Jujhar Khaira 1.83
  6. Patrick Maroon 1.71
  7. Mike Cammalleri 1.56
  8. Jesse Puljujarvi 1.51
  9. Ryan Strome 1.47
  10. Zack Kassian 1.27
  11. Mark Letestu 1.15
  12. Drake Caggiula 1.14
  13. Anton Slepyshev 0.89

I think the top five names are either meeting expectations or close (Lucic was 2.00 before moving down to second line) and Maroon will soon be at 2.00 if he continues to play with McDavid. Cammalleri has been playing on depth lines and is getting some business done, Strome is about where we should expect him, and Puljujarvi is sinking like a stone because he isn’t playing with 97 or 29. I’ll go to my grave believing there’s an organizational disconnect on this player, no idea who is on what side.

For defensemen, I prefer Corsi for rel/5×5, a stat that has been demonized by many. It has been improved upon (the Puck IQ boys have a better number) but rel is universally available and (for me) remains the gold standard. It does not reflect toughness of the minutes played, so a player like Larsson comes out worse than he might if we adjusted things.

  1. Andrej Sekera 5.73
  2. Darnell Nurse 2.75
  3. Eric Gryba 2.03
  4. Brandon Davidson 1.87
  5. Yohann Auvitu 1.20
  6. Matt Benning -0.70
  7. Oscar Klefbom -1.45
  8. Adam Larsson -1.86
  9. Kris Russell -3.56 (Fenwick -1.27)

Welcome back Rej, Darnell took a big step forward in his contract year and (for me) Benning is having a better season than people are crediting him for posting. The Swedes have been injured during the first half and Kris Russell refuses to comply (even the Borg can’t get him). (nst)

There’s some real movement now, as the World Juniors had their impact and players like Evan Bouchard spike. My “Oilers player watch” includes Filip Zadina, Quinn Hughes, Ty Smith and Adam Boqvist, prospect insider Simon Boisvert suggested Oliver Wahlstrom would be a good addition as well (you should follow Simon on twitter, simonsnake70).

 

 

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494 Responses to "That song about the midway"

« Older Comments
  1. JimmyV1965 says:

    godot10: So while wasting time and effort on KY, Chiarelli and McLellan let the Oilers season slip away from them in the first 10 games, by not having the guys they would have to rely on as wingers and D and the special teams ready.

    Babcock didn’t feel Marner needed a 10-game trial.They just sent him down.Tambellini didn’t feel Eberle needed a 10-game trial.He sent him down twice.

    To be fair, this same team got off to a great start last year with JP on the roster to start the season. I really doubt Yammer had a meaningful impact on the horrible start this year. We were sewered by awful goaltending to start the season.

  2. Crazy Pedestrian says:

    Woodguy v2.0:
    As per Friedman:

    Hearing CHI/ARIZ working on an Anthony Duclair deal

    Of course they are… Chicago knows when to pounce on a deal involving an young impact player. Of course, it helps when you know you have likely the best active NHL coach that can make a rock shine like a diamond… (most rocks anyway)

  3. Admiral Ackbar says:

    Thinker:
    I feel like Chiarelli was given a fair shake by fans, which is saying a lot considering he flushed a draft in his first week. The McDavid cloud hid a lot. I can only imagine if we were drafting Crouse at 3OV, and MacT made the Reinhart trade. That would be a fun parallel universe to live in I think.

    It almost appears that the PC era is just as inept as the MacT era, just in a different way.

    PC values toughness over speed
    MacT valued offensively minded Fs over anything resembling a D

    Under both, the team has been less than the sum of its parts.

  4. Scungilli Slushy says:

    I’d even consider E Kane after all of this Hall talk if his next contract wasn’t stupid, but it almost for sure will be too much.

  5. VOR says:

    Luck favours the prepared mind is actually Louis Pasteur the father of modern microbiology and the discoverer of the germ theory which is pretty important in medicine. Not to mention the genius who figured out how grapes become wine and made possible a commercial wine industry. The proper translation is “chance favours the prepared mind.”

  6. Scungilli Slushy says:

    VOR:
    Luck favours the prepared mind is actually Louis Pasteur the father of modern microbiology and the discoverer of the germ theory which is pretty important in medicine. Not to mention the genius who figured out how grapes become wine and made possible a commercial wine industry. The proper translation is “chance favours the prepared mind.”

    I only wish chance favoured the peppered mind. Peppered with abuse, I did grow up on the prairies after all.

  7. HenryDrix says:

    hunter1909:
    Take this for what it’s worth:

    My NHL draft lottery simulator is going nuts picking the Oilers in 3rd spot.

    All part of the Master plan.

  8. VOR says:

    Snowman, My advice would also be to go for it. However, I would add these additional suggestions to how not to crash and burn. Never stop learning. Always be listening. It is always, always, about the people.

  9. NYC-Back-to-Tokyo Oil (Gentleman Backpacker) says:

    I was hammering on about the 4 goals in 6 games thing throughout last night’s game. Thanks for running with it, Bruce.

    The Hall narrative makes me sad. Like I said, for me that trade was like getting dumped by a girlfriend I loved. Would I date again and have fun, absolutely, but I will forever wonder.

    Re the penalties. A lot of calls missed, interference, hooking, etc. That said the Ekholm hit on Khaira was not a penalty. Khaira turned his back into that hit.

    The spear: unfortunate it was missed.

    NHL reffing is terrible. The entire premise of an even-up call is nonsense. If they just called things by the book we could live with it.

  10. Snowman says:

    VOR:
    Luck favours the prepared mind is actually Louis Pasteur the father of modern microbiology and the discoverer of the germ theory which is pretty important in medicine. Not to mention the genius who figured out how grapes become wine and made possible a commercial wine industry. The proper translation is “chance favours the prepared mind.”

    I didn’t know Woodguy’s father was Louis Pasteur.

  11. Woodguy v2.0 says:

    Wilde:
    It’s Panik for Duclair, which is more than I thought based on the way the wind was blowing.

    Didn’t expect a full time NHLer to go the other way after the price plummeting verbal.

    Edit: Panik was making 2.8 for 2 years. That’d be why.

    and playing on the 4th

  12. Admiral Ackbar says:

    NYC-Back-to-Tokyo Oil (Gentleman Backpacker),

    Are the Oilers not more than their share on the wrong side of poorly called games? I’m not claiming a conspiracy, just observing.

  13. NYC-Back-to-Tokyo Oil (Gentleman Backpacker) says:

    Admiral Ackbar:
    NYC-Back-to-Tokyo Oil (Gentleman Backpacker),

    Are the Oilers not more than their share on the wrong side of poorly called games? I’m not claiming a conspiracy, just observing.

    This year, yes. Last year regular season, no. vs Anaheim, ugh.

  14. Woodguy v2.0 says:

    Snowman:

    I’ll keep you posted on how my first meeting with Mr. Steinbrenner goes.

    HIRE THIS MAN!!!

  15. Woodguy v2.0 says:

    Decidedly Skeptical Fan: Take the job.Never pass up an opportunity.Am assuming a fairly good sized company.Find the smartest senior guys there fast and ask a lot of questions if you don’t know something or you have run into a wall with the task assigned.Most smart guys are very willing to help people who are trying hard and are smart enough to ask for help when they are unsure how next to proceed.Kind of an ego trip for them.Do a lot of listening and learning, leave the talking for later.Worked very well for me.

    Yeah, ask questions and listen are the two best pieces of advice for this situation.

  16. jake70 says:

    Woodguy v2.0: Yeah, ask questions and listen are the two best pieces of advice for this situation.

    Didn’t you say months ago it’s about the hairline…and not to underestimate it?? LOL

  17. Admiral Ackbar says:

    NYC-Back-to-Tokyo Oil (Gentleman Backpacker): This year, yes. Last year regular season, no. vs Anaheim, ugh.

    Agreed. They were getting calls last year, although I’d suggest that many hooks/slashes on McD were ignored (he’d get 7 a game). There were a few games in the SJ series where I said “boy that’s a bad call” that they Oilers would get. It’s been a complete swing though since that SJ series. The double standard applied to the Oilers since than has been egregious.

    Is it strategic to simply grit one’s teeth and endure this? Is this why management isn’t speaking out? It’s rather obvious that no one in the organization is furious with the standard of late.

  18. VOR says:

    Snowman: I didn’t know Woodguy’s father was Louis Pasteur.

    Woodguy is much older than he looks. And now we know why he is so obnoxious. He is Parisienne

  19. OriginalPouzar says:

    DBO:
    Chicago picks up a buy low candidate in Duclair and dumps a bad Richar Panik contract the other way. Really wish we could get nice things again…… Would have been exactly the kind of player LT just mentioned on The Athletic in his last post.

    There is upside there for Duclair but his box cars the past few years essentially mirror Drake Caggulia’s. He’s got some nice advanced stats but he’s a middling NHLer at this point with upside.

    I would have “bought low” for the potential but there is a decent chance this player remains middling.

    If any organization can turn him around, its probably CHI though.

  20. Admiral Ackbar says:

    VOR: Woodguy is much older than he looks. And now we know why he is so obnoxious. He is Parisienne

    You just called him a French woman from Paris…

    Them fightin’ words?

  21. Admiral Ackbar says:

    OriginalPouzar: There is upside there for Duclair but his box cars the past few years essentially mirror Drake Caggulia’s.He’s got some nice advanced stats but he’s a middling NHLer at this point with upside.

    I would have “bought low” for the potential but there is a decent chance this player remains middling.

    If any organization can turn him around, its probably CHI though.

    Bowman + Quenneville have to be the best combination in the NHL. I’d do anything to date that girl…. anything.

  22. OriginalPouzar says:

    LMHF#1:
    Chiarelli/McLellan – it takes a long time to make a move. It took us months to get a backup goalie! That’s just how it is.

    Stan Bowman – Let’s go get Anthony Duclair. *some phone calls* Done.

    Back to the head-smashing wall…

    1) Coyotes management just went on record to say they’ve been looking to trade Duclair for 2 years and this is by far the best offer they’ve received.

    2) We are talking about a tweener NHL palyer here – this is not a substantial acquisition. Its a Cammy level acquisition

  23. Woodguy v2.0 says:

    Material pocession: A) You have demonstrated that he outscores the opposition when he’s on the ice.No argument there.You still have not demonstrated his amazing defensive ability using GF%.

    B)His against numbers don’t tell anything about him specifically.Unless you are saying that certain players, like Kris Russell for example, have some magical ability to affect GA%.I didn’t think so.

    A) That’s like Dangerfield pulling off the Triple Lindy and you’re criticizing his footwork. He does it better than most.

    B) He affects overall goal total. Russell’s boosters look at GA while ignoring GF.

    Or at least they do every second year.

  24. OriginalPouzar says:

    godot10: Skipping steps with non-elite prospects is dumb.Yamamoto appears to have been adversely affected by the 9 game experiment.Failure has created doubt in him.He can’t score anywhere now.

    Sending him down after a “successful” training camp would have been better sending him down after a “failure” after nine games.

    It means one will have to be slower with him now.It means the AHL first, until he is killing it there.

    I think there are a few links between cause and effect that are missing.

    Also, are you positing that Yamamoto’s 9 game stint in the NHL in October will have the effect of Yamamoto requiring AHL time whereas, if he was sent back to junior right after camp he wouldn’t need AHL time next year?

  25. Woodguy v2.0 says:

    Wilde: I’m with you on that one, but I just wanted to answer the question squarely

    Edit: Also I pulled the numbers even on mobile because I’m a gritty commenter who gets it done.

    I pull data on a phone for this blog too.

    Big ups.

    Its Gords work.

    I bet no one beats you to a puck either.

  26. NYC-Back-to-Tokyo Oil (Gentleman Backpacker) says:

    Panik roughly equal to Strome from the Oilers.

    Oilers were unlikely to take on another project.

    Duclair is a project. He has the tools but wore out his welcome. I saw him live a lot in the AHL in Tucson and he was not an effective player as he was a selfish puck hog who tried to do too much. He would have been run out of town by this impatient fanbase.

    Chicago will likely turn him around with Quenneville and Toews and Kane. But that was not going to happen in Edmonton with TMac and this young team.

  27. Woodguy v2.0 says:

    Snowman: That’s a good quote. Your dad sounds like a smart cat.

    Reminds me of one of the overriding themes of Chris Hadfield’s book. That guy prepared for things most people wouldn’t have even imagined could happen.

    If you haven’t read it I recommend it highly. It’s funny and interesting as hell.

    I went to a Hadfield talk at the Winspear and met him after.

    In total awe of the man.

    Everything he does is no big deal to him, just another hurdle to get over.

    Wonderful speaker.

  28. OriginalPouzar says:

    Wilde: I’d start him in the AHL next season just for bonus and flexibility reasons. But I wouldn’t say he has to kill it, considering JP didn’t. Because our AHL forwards fucking suck.

    That being said, I had a post about this right after the WJC but his numbers in the WHL this year don’t scare me. He’s not on the same line since he missed a bunch of games, and his G/A splits suggest he’s either not the shooter on his new line, or he’s shooting cold. Both are of little concern in a 13 game sample.

    JP wasn’t in the AHL this year to work on his offence and produce, he was sent to Bakersfield to work on things such as angles, gap control, stops and starts, etc.

    Our AHL forwards do such right now but next year they will get Hebig, Yamamoto and Benson – its a huge influx of talent and it should change the entire dynamic of the team.

    Yamamoto’s performance bonuses are only worth $230K/year – immaterial for cap purposes.

  29. Scungilli Slushy says:

    OriginalPouzar: 1) Coyotes management just went on record to say they’ve been looking to trade Duclair for 2 years and this is by far the best offer they’ve received.

    2) We are talking about a tweener NHL palyer here – this is not a substantial acquisition.Its a Cammy level acquisition

    D
    This is however what the Oilers need to be doing now. As NYC said about stocks a while back it’s easy to jump on the bandwagon when something is rising but it’s too late.

    Chia needs to find players before they emerge. Some won’t pan out. But with 2 big contracts it’s how it has to be. All about value now.

    If he can do this it gives him the depth to trade those who become too expensive and bring in assets while not losing depth.

  30. Wilde says:

    OriginalPouzar: There is upside there for Duclair but his box cars the past few years essentially mirror Drake Caggulia’s.He’s got some nice advanced stats but he’s a middling NHLer at this point with upside.

    I would have “bought low” for the potential but there is a decent chance this player remains middling.

    If any organization can turn him around, its probably CHI though.

    Duclairs boxcars while being scratched, playing low minutes with players like McGinn, and generally put in poor positions, mirror Caggiulas while he was played every game, in feature roles and often with skill players, including time with McDavid.

    And before those two years Duclair put up 20 and 20, although while shooting 20 as well.

    Edit; Pronouns

  31. Woodguy v2.0 says:

    Melvis:
    Woodguy

    I needed confirmation. There’s more of that in me than anything else. Needlless to say, I’m kinda fond of Aquariian dinks.

    The job related comments interested me. I’ve fallen into the best ones, and never really had to look for, or apply much for any of them. In a way, they tend to be self- created… mind over matter.

    I’ve got two jobs that I saw listed in the paper twice in my life.

    One when I was 19. It wasn’t a summer job, but I needed one as a student so I lied and told them I was long term.

    It was delivering furniture for Leons. I got it because I delivered furniture for Sears for 2 years (in the summer) before that.

    Got the job.

    The second was when I moved to Calgary without a job a few months after I got my BComm in the depths of shitty 992 economy.

    It was from that job that I got on with the guys I’m partners with now (and for the last 19 years) in the biz I run.

    Funny thing is, I had read the job description and thought “what the fuck do I know about wood” and passed.

    I was a finance grad, had a finance job waiting for me when I graduated with Burns Fry until BMO ate them and left me jobless.

    What did I know about wood?

    Then my roommate and best friend (who passed 14 years ago now) needed a ride to the building right next to the company advertising the job.

    I remember the address and thought “didn’t I see a job in that area?”

    I found the ad and *wrote* out my resume (they asked for a resume long hand because they still did all their orders by hand…no shit) and dropped it off on my way by with my buddy.

    They called a few days later and now I’m Woodguy.

    True Story.

  32. Wilde says:

    OriginalPouzar: JP wasn’t in the AHL this year to work on his offence and produce, he was sent to Bakersfield to work on things such as angles, gap control, stops and starts, etc.

    Our AHL forwards do such right now but next year they will get Hebig, Yamamoto and Benson – its a huge influx of talent and it should change the entire dynamic of the team.

    Yamamoto’s performance bonuses are only worth $230K/year – immaterial for cap purposes.

    For some reason I though Yamamoto had at least a league min. contract’s worth of money in bonuses, my bad.

    As for the huge influx of talent, every other team graduates guys to the pro’s every year. In order to make real gains against other clubs you need to have a year where you picked 4 or 5 times in the top 100 2 drafts previous.

  33. Scungilli Slushy says:

    Wilde: Duclairs boxcars while being scratched, playing low minutes with players like McGinn, and generally put in poor positions, mirror Caggiulas while he was played every game, in feature roles and often with skill players, including time with McDavid.

    And before those two years Duclair put up 20 and 20, although while shooting 20 as well.

    Edit; Pronouns

    Trade those disappointing out for similar players who might be better. The Oilers need guys who are on the page and are hungry for goals.

  34. VOR says:

    Admiral Ackbar: You just called him a French woman from Paris…

    Them fightin’ words?

    Just meant to be part of a much longer story about people who write in one rather obnoxious voice and live life in quite another. Focussed on Pasteur great something grand daughter. Got tied up with farm emergency. While try to get back to it later.

  35. Jaxon says:

    Wilde,

    OriginalPouzar,

    I think they handled Yamamoto perfectly. He earned his 9 games and they gave it to him. He performed very well. He now has a taste of what it takes to make the NHL. Maybe he’s having some growing pains as he concentrates on other areas of his game that he knows he needs to improve. Maybe he’s trying to be more responsible as a veteran on his junior team. I think playing the pro game in the NHL was a great opportunity and they couldn’t play him in the AHL, so NHL time was his only option. JP, too. He was able to go down and work on his overall game in the AHL and come up when he was ready. This is one of the few areas where I don’t see management at fault for anything.

    For much, if not all his time he was 1st or 2nd on the team in shots on goal. Did he finish? No. But on that sample size it is hard to gauge whether that was due to not enough skill to beat an NHL goalie, nerves, or just plain bad luck (he did hit the post at least twice I believe, so that is some bad luck at the least). He played well positionally, he stripped pucks away from veterans, he forechecked hard and used his body wisely.

    There is no way that you can put his bad start on being in the NHL for 9 games. As mentioned above you are inserting cause to fit your narrative, when it’s impossible to know what is really causing his reduced production. And, truthfully, he’s still at almost a point/gp. And, he was top 6 forward on the US team at the WJC.

    SIDE NOTE:
    It is interesting to note as we watch the development of Puljujarvi, Benson and Yamamoto (and Rasanen) that there is only 6 1/2 months separating them.

    Benson is only 1 3/4 months older than Puljujarvi, Puljujarvi is only 4 3/4 months older than Yamamoto. Puljujarvi is 25 days older than Rasanen.

    As far as forward prospects go, McDavid was an island to himself until they signed Hebig (8 days younger than McDavid) this week. Benson is 14 months younger than McDavid, Draisaitl is 14 1/2 months older than McDavid.

  36. Pouzar says:

    For some reason I am craving a calzone.

  37. Gerta Rauss says:

    Pouzar:
    For some reason I am craving a calzone.

    I filled up on nothing burgers

  38. OriginalPouzar says:

    Wilde: Duclairs boxcars while being scratched, playing low minutes with players like McGinn, and generally put in poor positions, mirror Caggiulas while he was played every game, in feature roles and often with skill players, including time with McDavid.

    And before those two years Duclair put up 20 and 20, although while shooting 20 as well.

    Edit; Pronouns

    Caggulia has been up and down the lineup from the 4th line to the 1st line to the pressbox to center to wing and back.

    Caggulia has got a couple of games here or there with McDavid but he has never played on the 1st line for any material period of time.

    I can’t say for sure but I’m guessing that Duclair has also had opportunity up the lineup.

    Yup, Duclair had 20/20.

    Strome has a 50 point season on his resume as well – I don’t think any Oiler fan is caring about that past season and right now Duclair’s 20/20 is somewhat meaningless.

    Anyways, my goal isn’t really to compare Duclair to Caggulia, I’d prefer Duclair – my point is simply to provide some context to the last two years of Duclair’s season and to express my view that I’m not going to deride the general manager every time a reclamation project with potential is moved and he isn’t in on it.

  39. OriginalPouzar says:

    Jaxon,

    Thanks for the post – very interesting information on the age gaps (or lack thereof) among those prospects.

    I’m going to disagree with you a bit on Kailer’s performance. I didn’t think that he was all that great in camp – he was good, not great. I didn’t think he showed he was ready for the top 6 in the NHL and was only given the spot because of lack of competition. I don’t think he was very good in the regular season at any point notwithstanding getting shots on net.

  40. Wilde says:

    OriginalPouzar,

    Cagguila has played more on the Nuge line, and the Drai line, than he has played on the 4th.

    I mixed up the McGinn stuff, him and Rinaldo were the ones he was being scratched in favour of, not his linemates this year. Jumbled stuff together from recalling my conversations with Coyotes fans.

    Bottom line is Duclair hangs out at 2.0/60, and Caggiula at 1.3/60. And especially damning is that Duclair does that mostly through goals, and even though he shot 20% in his 20 goal season, this year he’s at 13% and has an even better G/60.

    The season where his S% and production took a nosedive? Most common linemates were Mcginn and Peter Holland. His points/60 that season is in line with Caggiulas, this season.

    Where again, Drake has played with mostly skill.

    Anthony Duclair produces the same with plugs that Drake produces with skill. Anthony Duclair scores goals at a first line rate with skill.

  41. Professor Q says:

    VOR: Just meant to be part of a much longer story about people who write in one rather obnoxious voice and live life in quite another. Focussed on Pasteur great something grand daughter. Got tied up with farm emergency. While try to get back to it later.

    I guess you could say that you…went out to Pasteur.

  42. Jaxon says:

    OriginalPouzar:
    Jaxon,

    Thanks for the post – very interesting information on the age gaps (or lack thereof) among those prospects.

    I’m going to disagree with you a bit on Kailer’s performance.I didn’t think that he was all that great in camp – he was good, not great.I didn’t think he showed he was ready for the top 6 in the NHL and was only given the spot because of lack of competition. I don’t think he was very good in the regular season at any point notwithstanding getting shots on net.

    Have to re-read what I said, but I didn’t think I was saying he was great. I think he was good enough for 9 games, and he did get the shots, meaning he was mostly in the right place at the right time. He also had 5 takeaways in 9 games. That pace would give him 24 takeaways in 44 games for 3rd on the team behind McDavid, Nugent-Hopkins and Draisaitl. There were good things happening. And they did the right thing to send him back. Also, with a player like Yamamoto, you’re not going to debut him on a plugger line. If he was making it, it would be on a skill line, so that is the place he should be auditioned. In the end, he didn’t produce enough to stick. And there is no shame in that. He’ll figure things out and bounce back. It might take him a couple years, but he’ll get there.

  43. Snowman says:

    Woodguy v2.0: I went to a Hadfield talk at the Winspear and met him after.

    In total awe of the man.

    Everything he does is no big deal to him, just another hurdle to get over.

    Wonderful speaker.

    I imagine he’s probably the nicest guy alive in addition to being so successful. After you’ve done everything he’s done I can’t imagine you get too stressed out about anything.

    I missed him when he came to town not that long ago. I’ll have to catch him next time.

  44. Melvis says:

    Woodguy v2.0: I’ve got two jobs that I saw listed in the paper twice in my life.

    One when I was 19.It wasn’t a summer job, but I needed one as a student so I lied and told them I was long term.

    It was delivering furniture for Leons.I got it because I delivered furniture for Sears for 2 years (in the summer) before that.

    Got the job.

    The second was when I moved to Calgary without a job a few months after I got my BComm in the depths of shitty 992 economy.

    It was from that job that I got on with the guys I’m partners with now (and for the last 19 years) in the biz I run.

    Funny thing is, I had read the job description and thought “what the fuck do I know about wood” and passed.

    I was a finance grad, had a finance job waiting for me when I graduated with Burns Fry until BMO ate them and left me jobless.

    What did I know about wood?

    Then my roommate and best friend (who passed 14 years ago now)needed a ride to the building right next to the company advertising the job.

    I remember the address and thought “didn’t I see a job in that area?”

    I found the ad and *wrote* out my resume (they asked for a resume long hand because they still did all their orders by hand…no shit) and dropped it off on my way by with my buddy.

    They called a few days later and now I’m Woodguy.

    True Story.

    Yeah, I get that. I’ve enjoyed similar experiences.

    And here I was going to a few hundred words and got called away. Another time. lol.

  45. OriginalPouzar says:

    Brossoit gets the start tonight for Bakersfield backed up by Ellis – Pasquale the goalie out.

    Condors outshooting the Stars 10-2 but are down 1-0.

  46. OriginalPouzar says:

    No Yamamoto again for Spokane.

    I can’t for the life of me find out any info on the injury including time line.

  47. JimmyV1965 says:

    Ryan Rishaug made an interesting comment on the Pure Hockey podcast. He basically said that it may be hard for Chia to make a good trade because all the other GMs are aware of his trade history. Why would they offer him a fair deal deal when they know they can extract an overpayment?

    So much for the narrative that he had to overpay for a dman because everyone knew the team had such a big hole. Where does this leave the GM? Even if you like what he has done, and I think he has done some good things, the challenge for him to make a good trade is immensely magnified by his history. We may be in for a rough ride here.

  48. Lloyd B. says:

    Melvis,

    Best jobs/contracts I have ever had have been through networks. And its not even close.

    Snowman. Ass up head down. And as the others have said. Ask questions and listen.

    You’ll be gold Jerry gold.

    And of course…deliver!

  49. €v¥£€us says:

    OriginalPouzar,

    He has been given a few days off, not with team on road trip.

    As per Jon Keen on the twitter machine:

    No Kailer Yamamoto on the mid-week trip for the Spokane Chiefs. Getting a break after WJ’s. Won’t play tonite or tmrw in Kelowna.

  50. Bank Shot says:

    JimmyV1965:
    Ryan Rishaug made an interesting comment on the Pure Hockey podcast.He basically said that it may be hard for Chia to make a good trade because all the other GMs are aware of his trade history. Why would they offer him a fair deal deal when they know they can extract an overpayment?

    So much for the narrative that he had to overpay for a dman because everyone knew the team had such a big hole. Where does this leave the GM? Even if you like what he has done, and I think he has done some good things, the challenge for him to make a good trade is immensely magnified by his history.We may be in for a rough ride here.

    He could always just not make a trade. The Jets basically never trade even when everyone thinks they have to(Trouba).

    Looks like its finally working out for them.

  51. NYC-Back-to-Tokyo Oil (Gentleman Backpacker) says:

    JimmyV1965:
    Ryan Rishaug made an interesting comment on the Pure Hockey podcast.He basically said that it may be hard for Chia to make a good trade because all the other GMs are aware of his trade history. Why would they offer him a fair deal deal when they know they can extract an overpayment?

    So much for the narrative that he had to overpay for a dman because everyone knew the team had such a big hole. Where does this leave the GM? Even if you like what he has done, and I think he has done some good things, the challenge for him to make a good trade is immensely magnified by his history.We may be in for a rough ride here.

    If that is true, he is done. Old Yeller style.

  52. NYC-Back-to-Tokyo Oil (Gentleman Backpacker) says:

    Bank Shot: He could always just not make a trade. The Jets basically never trade even when everyone thinks they have to(Trouba).

    Looks like its finally working out for them.

    Taylor Hall was worth at least as much as Duchene.
    Sakic took a lot of heat for sitting on Duchene as long as he did.

  53. OriginalPouzar says:

    €v¥£€us:
    OriginalPouzar,

    He has been given a few days off, not with team on road trip.

    As per Jon Keen on the twitter machine:

    No Kailer Yamamoto on the mid-week trip for the Spokane Chiefs. Getting a break after WJ’s. Won’t play tonite or tmrw in Kelowna.

    Thank you for this – I just saw that Safin was in the lineup for SJ the day after the Czech’s last game and Samorukov the same for Guelph so I figured if Kailer wasn’t playing, its injury related. He’s probably still feeling the effects but sounds like it will be short term.

  54. JimmyV1965 says:

    Bank Shot: He could always just not make a trade. The Jets basically never trade even when everyone thinks they have to(Trouba).

    Looks like its finally working out for them.

    For sure. That may be the best strategy going forward. Who knows.

  55. Wilde says:

    Is it a big deal if Rishaug’s right? It’s not like Chia has to make a trade this season besides deadline moves, where I’m sure the other teams will be willing to deal because championship hopes are on the line for their orgs.

    I’m also comfortable with an alternative interpretation where the rumour is being used to massage the fanbase and prep them for a period of low activity from here until February, regardless of the losses piling on.

  56. NYC-Back-to-Tokyo Oil (Gentleman Backpacker) says:

    Wilde,

    It’s one thing to say other GMs aren’t going to be doing the Oilers any favours so prepare for no deals.

    It’s another thing entirely for someone from the mainstream media to say Chia can’t get any fair deals because his colleagues all know that if they wait he will make bad deals that favour them.

  57. Wilde says:

    NYC-Back-to-Tokyo Oil (Gentleman Backpacker):
    Wilde,

    It’s one thing to say other GMs aren’t going to be doing the Oilers any favours so prepare for no deals.

    It’s another thing entirely for someone from the mainstream media to say Chia can’t get any fair deals because his colleagues all know that if they wait he will make bad deals that favour them.

    Charelli refers to this in his interviews as well, that’s why I’m ringing the planted rumour bell. Termed it as ‘nobody’s going to help you’.

    Sounds familiar to me. Anyways, I don’t think he’ll make a trade.

    Doubt teams were falling overthemselves to trade with EDM in 2015, fresh off winning the 97 lottery, but the deadline was business as usual.

  58. NYC-Back-to-Tokyo Oil (Gentleman Backpacker) says:

    Wilde,

    Well if it is ‘nobody’s going to help you’ yes. Chia just said that yesterday, too.

    Who knows what Rishaug is up to, but his comments went a step further in cutting off Chia’s legs below the knees.

    Edit- appear to. I did not listen to this podcast.

  59. JimmyV1965 says:

    The podcast is Pure Hockey, co-hosted by Ray Ferraro. That’s why I listen to it. To be clear, Rishaug was simply speculating. He wasn’t told this by a GM. He was putting his trade history into perspective and simply speculating. It was interesting though and food for thought.

  60. Wilde says:

    Yeah if it’s on a podcast, once, I’m leaning towards speculation then.

    I think the only trades this affects though, are of the variety we don”t want Chia to make right now.

  61. JimmyV1965 says:

    Wilde:
    Yeah if it’s on a podcast, once, I’m leaning towards speculation then.

    I think the only trades this affects though, are of the variety we don”t want Chia to make right now.

    And he likely doesn’t have the green light for all deals right now. I’m sure there will be more scrutiny from the talking heads going forward, similar to what happened in Boston.

  62. HT Joe says:

    NYC-Back-to-Tokyo Oil (Gentleman Backpacker):
    http://www.espn.com/nhl/story/_/id/22023211/nhl-general-managers-hot-seat-midpoint-2017-18-season

    Chia ranks 2nd, behind Bergevin.

    Imagine that… the 2 GMs who traded away star players for less than optimum returns in 2016, and they’re now both in the hot seat for their jobs.

  63. NYC-Back-to-Tokyo Oil (Gentleman Backpacker) says:

    HT Joe: Imagine that… the 2 GMs who traded away star players for less than optimum returns in 2016, and they’re now both in the hot seat for their jobs.

    The “Does he deserve it?” segment is…uh, harsh (but probably fair, although thin on D? Right D definitely, and lacking true top pairing players (a few guys still with untapped potential to get there)).

  64. New Improved Darkness says:

    Rishaug’s comments are tapping into the public appetite for collusive, Survivor-style narratives, where all the GMs look around the table and collectively decide who is bleeding out, and nominate that person to be thrown to the wolves, to appease the next lupine moon.

    It doesn’t pass muster in Economics 101 in which all the other GMs are assumed to be in utmost competition to benefit from Chia’s blind spot. If Chia’s only problem is a tendency to set the price too low to alleviate his impatient ADHD, one GM will try to outbid another to be on the other side of whatever deal transpires. If Chia can tell the difference between a better offer and a worse offer, the ultimate price will converge on market equilibrium.

    If, however, the problem is that Chia can’t distinguish good from bad, then every competent GM will adopt the strategy of calling him up once a week and spit-balling ludicrous swaps to see whether he falls in love with something truly stupid. That isn’t the message we’ve been hearing.

    The explanation here is pretty obvious.

    Rishaug has fallen prey to faulty induction. When there are no good trades to be had (on both hockey and CBA grounds) , the GM most likely to force the issue is the one whose credibility is escaping like sand down a footloose hour glass.

    Faced with many poor choices, the imperiled GM will try to choose the least bad deal available. This has nothing to do with other GMs deliberately setting a predatory price. But it will look like maybe they did, because the imperiled GM will lose four trades out of five.

    Even a trade a GM wins cleanly knocks over many other dominoes. Cleaning up those dominoes takes a GM off the market for opportunistic windfalls until his house in order again, which bears a non-trivial opportunity cost, especially in-season, though less so over the summer.

    The in-season market liquidity problem is a form of inherent zugzwang: the first mover usually loses. (A ‘mover’ being any GM willing to offer more for less in order to break the deal-drought gridlock.)

    What drives a GM to do such a crazy thing as become a mover in the first place, when every GM knows in his marrow that it’s a losing strategy?

    Usually it’s that evil word “window”—the one you tend to overhear at the enlightened camp fire, the one where all the regulars have set aside their foolish reverence for us/them.

    As I see it, precarious GMs get fleeced by bitter window, not by instinctual Survivor-style mass collusion.

    Of course, I’m ignoring much evidence of instinctual mass collusion on the part of people around me to collectively view this through the other lens.

  65. oilersfan says:

    NYC-Back-to-Tokyo Oil (Gentleman Backpacker),

    NYC

    Wouldn’t you have rather got Larson than what Colorado got
    Got for Duchéne?

    I still think Sakic didn’t get enough… late first round draft picks and above average (but not A quality) prospects, for a proven first line center . If the oilers traded hall for unproven B+ prospects I would
    Be livid. I much prefer Larson to what Colorado got for duchene

  66. Georges says:

    So sad that Chachi isn’t around. Lots of ways of looking at things in this thread that could use a little of his mockery.

    Here’s another way of looking at things, based not at all on feelings about old girlfriends or feelings toward players who no longer play for this team.

    GM’s have put together lots of teams in the past 25 years. 696 in total. Those teams had varying talent levels. And they had coaching staffs that did their best to teach, organize, and motivate the players to deliver the best possible results given the talent level.

    The PK with its formal structure and tactics is especially amenable to coaching.

    No coaching staff in the past 25 years has taught, organized, and motivated their penalty killers as badly as our very own TMac and Jim Johnson.

    True story.

    Now, like a bad breakup, being that bad at one part of the game is something that’s very difficult to get over. It’s close to starting the game a goal down.

    Players can start to wonder (like some posters) if they’re the worst collection of talent the league has seen in the past 25 years. Or they can understandably look sideways at the coaching they’re getting and what they’re being asked to do. Either path leads to low, low confidence. Low, low confidence infects everything: see 4 goals for in 6 games.

    (TMac helps no one but himself with his good with the media politicking he pulls when the mood suits him. Maybe the media should ask, gee Todd, you talk a lot about what it takes to win: are you sure you know the answer? Are you sure you’re sure? Maybe if you’re a little less sure, you could try to figure out why you maybe don’t win… maybe?)

    Coaches who have come close to TMac’s PK performance have often been shown the door by the end of the season. Typically, they don’t last more than a year or two more than that.

    The idea that TMac got a lot out of last year’s team is suspect. Last year’s team was a great team, with the best forward depth in the WC. That ANA series, the grotesque way it played out… just right there but just out of reach of our man in charge.

    TMac has shown throughout his career that he’s incapable of getting more out of his teams but, in critical moments, very capable of getting less. After a while, players probably pick up on that. This year is like TMac’s first year with the Oilers because PC took away TMac’s talent surplus. Stupid of PC because that’s asking way too much of his coach.

    This team isn’t contending for the SCF like its preseason expectations. You could put that on PC but we didn’t even get that far. This team isn’t contending for the playoffs. That it doesn’t contend for the playoffs, that’s on TMac and his teaching, communicating, managing, and motivating.

    Godot is right.

    (Shout out again to Chachi. It’s funner to see you around when I visit.)

    Cool article:

    https://www.prideofdetroit.com/2018/1/4/16053158/what-head-coaches-do-search-caldwell-quinn-duties-noll-parcells-shula-walsh-jimmy-johnson-landry

  67. NYC-Back-to-Tokyo Oil (Gentleman Backpacker) says:

    oilersfan:
    NYC-Back-to-Tokyo Oil (Gentleman Backpacker),

    NYC

    Wouldn’t you have rather got Larson than what Colorado got
    Got for Duchéne?

    I still think Sakic didn’t get enough… latefirst round draft picks and above average (but not A quality) prospects, for a proven first line center . If the oilers traded hall for unproven B+ prospects I would
    Be livid. I much prefer Larson to what Colorado got for duchene

    The Oilers were looking for immediate results. Avs were ok with futures. To me its apples to oranges. Also Duchene had asked out so his value should have been less.

    Would Adam Larsson fetch Girard, Kamenev, a 1st and a 2nd?

    If you believe that then that is probably where I would differ with you. Did the Oilers need Larsson more than that bounty? Yeah, no argument there.

  68. Pescador says:

    New Improved Darkness: Yeah if it’s on a podcast, once, I’m leaning towards speculation then.
    I think the only trades this affects though, are of the variety we don”t want Chia to make right now.

    Thank you for making me smarter, every time you post

  69. digger50 says:

    I posted this last night, was hoping for discussion today.

    In yesterday’s offside disallowed goal everyone focuses on the back leg, that it is off the ice. Try focusing on the front foot, it looks to me that the heel of that front skate is on the line as the puck crosses the line. And due to the puck receivers black tape on thier stick, it obscures the last fraction of a second.

    Everybody says “I hate it but they got it right” have another look from either angle. Bagged milk in his game summary has one clip. Have another look.

    To me, it is unclear that the front skate crosses the line before the puck. When unclear the call on the ice stands.

  70. JD_Wry says:

    NYC-Back-to-Tokyo Oil (Gentleman Backpacker):
    Sakic took a lot of heat for sitting on Duchene as long as he did.

    Hall would have torn a knee if Chia waited that long 😉

  71. NYC-Back-to-Tokyo Oil (Gentleman Backpacker) says:

    JD_Wry: Hall would have torn a knee if Chia waited that long 😉

    While falling down on his own to avoid backchecking, no doubt.

  72. OriginalPouzar says:

    Benson held off the scoresheet for the 2nd straight night.

    I think it might be the first time this season he’s been held pointless in two straight.

    Condors win to improve to 15-13-6 – record looks OK and getting better but they are still 7th in their division (but only 3 points out of first).

  73. OriginalPouzar says:

    oilersfan:
    NYC-Back-to-Tokyo Oil (Gentleman Backpacker),

    NYC

    Wouldn’t you have rather got Larson than what Colorado got
    Got for Duchéne?

    I still think Sakic didn’t get enough… latefirst round draft picks and above average (but not A quality) prospects, for a proven first line center . If the oilers traded hall for unproven B+ prospects I would
    Be livid. I much prefer Larson to what Colorado got for duchene

    Except Duchene hasn’t been a first line center in years.

  74. OriginalPouzar says:

    OriginalPouzar:
    Benson held off the scoresheet for the 2nd straight night.

    I think it might be the first time this season he’s been held pointless in two straight.

    Condors win to improve to 15-13-6 – record looks OK and getting better but they are still 7th in their division (but only 3 points out of first).

    Bear with a nice little delay on the offensive zone and pass to Pak in the high slot who buries it for the OT winner.

    Pak is lighting it up offensively – I think he’s like Lander in that respect and his O will never translate to the NHL level.

  75. Bruce McCurdy says:

    godot10: He was attempting to frame a narrative by leading with information whose purpose was to mislead.

    Just catching up on the thread & i continue to challenge how citing a TOI WOWY — an actual stat, not an opinion — is an “intent to mislead”. I resent your implication, said so already, & yet you persist with that characterization.

    Just because said WOWY of 4% With/96% Without (from Strome’s perspective; even more from McDavid’s) flies in the face of your take that Strome was somehow “gifted Connor McDavid” doesn’t make it — or me — wrong or misleading. The simple Fact is that McLellan has given the twosome virtually no time together. Not sure why a discussion referencing that fact requires multiple attacks on my intentions or character, but i don’t appreciate it.

    I’m not a huge Strome fan either, but blaming him for blowing his “chance” with McDavid? Now ~that~ is an opinion, & not a particularly well-supported one.

  76. Bruce McCurdy says:

    BONE207: Bruce…you do know that the Oilers played Nashville last night, right?

    Yes of course. I was responding to Woodguy’s fantasy 😉 that we would like to see Kesler get called for similar offences as that committed by Lucic.

  77. frjohnk says:

    Bruce McCurdy: I’m not a huge Strome fan either, but blaming him for blowing his “chance” with McDavid? Now ~that~ is an opinion, & not a particularly well-supported one.

    If Strome wrecked his chance with McDavid it must have been off ice in which he pissed off McClellan. Guys who have been scratched, Cammy, Drake, who have been demoted back to jr, Yamo, or is a 4th liner, Kassian, have played more with McDavid than Stromes 15 minutes at 5 on 5.

    Strome has only played 15 minutes with McDavid and one could make the case that is mostly from extended shifts by one of these players while the other player just gets on the ice over the course of the year. This type of TOI together will slowly creep up over the course of the year. So they may have only lined up together at a faceoff a handful of times.

    Not sure the reason McCellan doesnt try Strome with McDavid, wouldnt hurt anything. I dont think Strome has shown much this year, but then again our winger depth is not good, so put them together maybe something will happen.

  78. russ99 says:

    The obvious move is to cut losses and undo this previous summer’s mistakes and get a veteran base next summer. That involves moving RFAs who obviously won’t be a key piece on a contending team anytime soon.

    That takes trades. And frankly I don’t care about optics, rather a contending team next fall.

    If we’re making moves or avoiding making moves to placate a beyond fickle fanbase that’s going to rage against any move, we’ve already lost.

    If Chia has to lose his gig to make the hard moves, so be it, but they need to be made.

  79. OriginalPouzar says:

    frjohnk: If Strome wrecked his chance with McDavid it must have been off ice in which he pissed off McClellan.Guys who have been scratched, Cammy, Drake, who have been demoted back to jr, Yamo, or is a 4th liner, Kassian, have played more with McDavid than Stromes 15 minutes at 5 on 5.

    Strome has only played 15 minutes with McDavid and one could make the case that is mostly from extended shifts by one of these players while the other player just gets on the ice over the course of the year. This type of TOI together will slowly creep up over the course of the year.So they may have only lined up together at a faceoff a handful of times.

    Not sure the reason McCellan doesnt try Strome with McDavid, wouldnt hurt anything.I dont think Strome has shown much this year, but then again our winger depth is not good, so put them together maybe something will happen.

    It really is interesting that Strome was a 1RW with McDavid for two pre-season games and then never again. I agree, they never lined up together at even strength (I can’t even remember a single shift) and the 15min is 100% shift overlap.

    This blog assumed Strome would be Drai’s mirror man and play 30% at 1RW – that has simply not happened.

    Now, Strome hasn’t “earned” the right to move up to 1RW but neither have almost any of the options tried that except Leon and Jesse.

    I would prefer to give Strome an extended stint at 3C for the next few months and see how he plays after settling in to that role. Success there would fill a top 6 winger spot by allowing Nuge, Drai or McDavid to shift to the wing.

  80. frjohnk says:

    https://www.tsn.ca/evander-kane-tops-tsn-trade-bait-board-1.965103

    “TSN Hockey Insider Pierre LeBrun reported Tuesday that Sabres’ GM Jason Botterill has set the asking price for Kane at three assets: a first-round pick, a prospect and a conditional draft pick.”

    Id be surprised if Botterill gets anywhere near that kind of haul for Kane.
    Maroon and Letestu are on the that list

  81. frjohnk says:

    OriginalPouzar,

    Yup, see if Strome can dial in that 3rd center spot. He needs to work on his faceoffs and he is not very good defensively. Needs to become more consistent as he disappears for games at a time, but I believe there is a player there. His QO of $3M is too much, so I think he hits UFA if the Oilers decline to qualify at that price, but maybe the Oilers can do what the Pens did with Schultz and bring him back for a lower cap hit.

  82. Scungilli Slushy says:

    russ99:
    The obvious move is to cut losses and undo this previous summer’s mistakes and get a veteran base next summer. That involves moving RFAs who obviously won’t be a key piece on a contending team anytime soon.

    That takes trades. And frankly I don’t care about optics, rather a contending team next fall.

    If we’re making moves or avoiding making moves to placate a beyond fickle fanbase that’s going to rage against any move, we’ve already lost.

    If Chia has to lose his gig to make the hard moves, so be it, but they need to be made.

    As long as hard moves doesn’t mean trading skill for defense or young for on the verge of decline. Trades don’t necessarily hurt, but skill for heart and young for old depletes teams sooner or later, almost always. And it’s hard to recover quickly without great fortune.

    You can acquire vets cheaply as long as you aren’t whale hunting these days. It’s reversed. Not that long ago it was more the other way.

  83. SayItAin'tSo, Gretz, SayItAin'tSo! says:

    A fascinating set of discussions here gents (some a little more testy than others but hey that’s how it rolls some times).

    A couple thoughts:

    1) I think its too early to be writing the definitive book on any one teams strategy and or build and here are a couple of factoids

    1a) Despite the love here the Devils have lost 5 straight and their schedule gets tougher in the 2nd half
    1b) Toronto is having troubles scoring goals and their porous defense is starting to cost them now that Andersen isn’t on one of his streaks a couple of blown leads and bitter endings lately
    1c) Despite all the negativity the Oilers (across all situations via Natural Stat Trick) are top five in CF, FF, SCF, HDCF

    As of now 1a and 1b will be discounted because those two teams are leaps ahead of the Oilers and that’s fair. But keep an eye on both in the 2nd half because I’m half convinced they are due for some regression.

    2) IIRC WG had a great post earlier along the lines of “a guy like Hall allows you space to weather the storm when things go south.” I agree with that to a certain extent. Oiler fans witnessed a similar stretch in 15/16 when the team had NHL regulars/their stars drop like flies and had a goalie tandem that couldn’t stop a beach ball. All of the Austins were on that team and as we witnessed so often they drifted down to the cellar yet again.

    This isn’t to blame any of those three men singularly because that team had some serious holes but, its more to point out that when 3/4 of the guys you are counting on take giant leaps backward while you are dealing with an injury to your top veteran dman, its tough for any team to overcome.

    3) Going back to being too early to write the definitive history. One poster has being saying lately “the cavalry isn’t coming this is what the Oilers are.” I’m not so sure about this and my reasons are two-fold with one caveat of worry.

    3a) The Oilers “core” is intact and relatively strong. Three deep at centre combined with Larsson, Klefbom, Nurse and Sekera. I’ll also throw in Looch who’s scoring at historical levels and when slotted properly is a bonafide NHL player.

    3b) Despite the wringing of hands by some, I’m in the camp with OP (also Jaxon and Scungili) that doesn’t view the Oilers prospect pool as a wasteland. I think all of JP, Yamo and Benson are quality prospects who have a lot of tools that will help them at the NHL level. They have talent bubbling under in the AHL and Benning remains a work in progress who’s less than stellar play should make a bridge contract much easier to sign this year.

    3c) The goaltending situation has me a touch worried though. There are some legit prospects in Ellis, Skinner and Wells but Talbot’s play this year has been erratic (not all on him though) so I’m more nervous than I would have been.

    What I think is most disappointing for fans (and the toughest pill to swallow for some of us) is that after the 2015/2016 season there was a decision made higher up to reset the team age wise around McD/Drai (who are 20/22) respectively. If you look at the age range of the core pieces they conform to this. Last year’s run was great and I loved it, but consistently throughout the whole year, playoffs and offseason both TMac and Chia repeatedly said “we are still a growth team, we are still a growth team.”

    That won’t sit well with many folks, I sympathize and I’m not trying to justify any one specific move made by Chia and /or TMac but I still think there is a method to the madness here.

    Unfortunately for all involved the team decided to forget how to kill penalties at Rogers Place and left many a dud effort out on the ice this year.

    Playoffs are done but a lot of good can still come out of this season.

    The numbers tell me/us that they are closer to elite than bottom feeder, the turnaround will be quicker than folks assume.

  84. Pescador says:

    Scungilli Slushy: As long as hard moves doesn’t mean trading skill for defense or young for on the verge of decline. Trades don’t necessarily hurt, but skill for heart and young for old depletes teams sooner or later, almost always. And it’s hard to recover quickly without great fortune.

    You can acquire vets cheaply as long as you aren’t whale hunting these days. It’s reversed. Not that long ago it was more the other way.

    Whale hunting in a row boat with KLowe playing the part of Captain Highliner,
    This is an apt description of the DoD,
    Good times

  85. ArmchairGM says:

    hunter1909:
    Re Chiarelli and the Taylor Hall trade:

    I remember avidly checking out Boston’s reaction to trading Seguin for Dallas Stars rejects and castoffs; and the pro-Chiarelli faction sounded suspiciously like Lowe+MacT lemmings. Stuff like “Chiarelli did the right thing” etc lol

    New Jersey got themselves gifted a superstar. Chiarelli’s pissed away so many team assets there’s no freaking way he keeps his job.

    I’m not going to defend these trades, but if the Larsson, Reinhart and Strome trades were going to cost Chairelli his job, it would have happened already.

  86. OriginalPouzar says:

    frjohnk:
    https://www.tsn.ca/evander-kane-tops-tsn-trade-bait-board-1.965103

    “TSN Hockey Insider Pierre LeBrun reported Tuesday that Sabres’ GM Jason Botterill has set the asking price for Kane at three assets: a first-round pick, a prospect and a conditional draft pick.”

    Id be surprised if Botterill gets anywhere near that kind of haul for Kane.
    Maroon and Letestu are on the that list

    I think that return sounds about right – Kane is the prized forward asset out there and he is indeed a high end goal scorer.

    A “prospect” is very broad – not that the Oilers would be in play but it could be anything from Yamamoto/Benson/Smorukov/Bear to Laleggia/Simpson/Mantha/Hebig

  87. OriginalPouzar says:

    frjohnk:
    OriginalPouzar,

    Yup, see if Strome can dial in that 3rd center spot.He needs to work on his faceoffs and he is not very good defensively. Needs to become more consistent as he disappears for games at a time, but I believe there is a player there.His QO of $3M is too much, so I think he hits UFA if the Oilers decline to qualify at that price, but maybe the Oilers can do what the Pens did with Schultz and bring him back for a lower cap hit.

    If the Oilers are looking to bring Strome back (whether he proves to be a decent 3C or they simply want to otherwise bring him back to maintain the asset they own), I would think that they would negotiate a contract prior to the deadline to extend the QO.

  88. frjohnk says:

    SayItAin’tSo, Gretz, SayItAin’tSo!: One poster has being saying lately “the cavalry isn’t coming this is what the Oilers are

    Thats me.

    Benson, Yamamoto, Jones and Bear are fine prospects, but every team has those guys. Some teams have more of these guys and of course because we dont have much for bluechippers ( none of our guys really are) , we are at the bottom of the list of prospect groups. Not every one of prospects will make it, maybe 1 makes an impact, but it wont be for a couple of years.

    That is why I say the calvary is not coming anytime soon.

  89. OriginalPouzar says:

    frjohnk: Thats me.

    Benson, Yamamoto, Jones and Bear are fine prospects, but every team has those guys. Some teams have more of these guys and of course because we dont have much for bluechippers ( none of our guys really are) , we are at the bottom of the list of prospect groups. Not every one of prospects will make it, maybe 1 makes an impact, but it wont be for a couple of years.

    That is why I say the calvary is not coming anytime soon.

    You are right, no blue-chipers and you are likely right that most organizations have similar level prospects (although I would like to add some high potential guys like Safin/Maksimov as well as one of my favoties, Samorukov, as well as the 3C of the future, Rasanen, and the future Swedish paring of Lagesson/Berglund).

    With that said, the Oilers struggles in the past is not graduating prospects that make a difference at the NHL level.

    If/when a couple of these prospects hit, perhaps outperform their draft potential, we’ll be rolling – it happens to other organizations with prospects of this level and I look for it to happen to our organization at some point.

  90. SayItAin'tSo, Gretz, SayItAin'tSo! says:

    frjohnk,

    I think we disagree about the pedigree necessary and what is expected from these guys then

    The Pens have Crosby, Malkin, Kessel, Letang (theoretically) and Murray is their core guys.

    Their recent prospects prospects (Sheary, Bonino, Rust, Guentzel) came in, filled gaps and played well with their stars.

    Sometimes they go on heaters that outshine the stars most times not

    None of Pittsburgh’s guys that filled these gaps had a bluechip pedigree coming in so I don’t really want to write off Edmonton’s guys quite yet.

  91. godot10 says:

    Bruce McCurdy: Just catching up on the thread & i continue to challenge how citing a TOI WOWY — an actual stat, not an opinion — is an “intent to mislead”. I resent your implication, said so already, & yet you persist with that characterization.

    Just because said WOWY of 4% With/96% Without (from Strome’s perspective; even more from McDavid’s) flies in the face of your take that Strome was somehow “gifted Connor McDavid” doesn’t make it — or me — wrong or misleading. The simple Fact is that McLellan has given the twosome virtually no time together. Not sure why a discussion referencing that fact requires multiple attacks on my intentions or character, but i don’t appreciate it.

    I’m not a huge Strome fan either, but blaming him for blowing his “chance” with McDavid? Now ~that~ is an opinion, & not a particularly well-supported one.

    Strome was given the job in training camp and promptly gave it away with indifferent and poor play. Quoting regular season time on ice is misleading because it is after the fact.

    In reality, Strome didn’t really blow his chance. He is just a nothing burger of a hockey player. He provides bottom six offense with no defense. Gagner would at least provide 2nd line offense with no defense. So Strome is really more useless than Gagner.

  92. frjohnk says:

    SayItAin’tSo, Gretz, SayItAin’tSo!:
    frjohnk,

    I think we disagree about the pedigree necessary and what is expected from these guys then

    The Pens have Crosby, Malkin, Kessel, Letang (theoretically) and Murray is their core guys.

    Their recent prospects prospects (Sheary, Bonino, Rust, Guentzel) came in, filled gaps and played well with their stars.

    Sometimes they go on heaters that outshine the stars most times not

    None of Pittsburgh’s guys that filled these gaps had a bluechip pedigree coming in so I don’t really want to write off Edmonton’s guys quite yet.

    No, they dont need bluechip pedigree to fill those gaps but bluechip pedigree would increase the odds that we have prospects that will make it.

    Look at many of our prospects in 2011 that we thought would make a difference here.

    Marincin- played world jrs. Coming off a 56 point season in Prince George as a Dman
    Hamilton-played world jrs. Big, 2 way good skating winger with offense
    Musil- Big Dman who actually had some offense as a 16 yearold ( yeah, I know most did not like the pick, but many felt he would at least be a marginal NHLer)
    Pitlick
    Hartikinen
    Lander

    Back then ( and like other times) we were raving at the amount of prospect depth we had but few eventually made an impact. We as fans, tend to overate the impact prospects that are not blue chippers will make. I have done it countless times.

    Maybe a couple of our prospects will make an impact, but none of them are close.

    Bear, Jones, Yamo, Benson are our 4 best prospects. All look to be in the AHL next year, 1 or 2 maybe NHL year after but mostly not much of an impact anytime soon.

    Thats why I say the calvary is not coming anytime soon.

    I follow the Jets as well.

    Now thats a prospect group.
    http://www.hockeydb.com/ihdb/stats/leagues/seasons/teams/0073892018.html

  93. Oilspill says:

    We are fked if we can’t beat the coyotes. The fact that we are producing less than a goal a game in the last 7 and giving up damn near 4 is hopefully based on quality of comp. I watch the D as that’s what I played up to CIS. A few things are very obvious. We are physically pushed of pucks in the D zone. Certain players are “scared”. They see a hard forecheck and rim it. Other teams have figured it out. We are soft boxing out in front because for this size matters. We have high end D who should be sitting but are put back out with no fear of reprisal if they fk up.
    What I don’t get is that they are all except Larsson better on the O zone. I think this falls on the forwards lack of mobility and inability to finish.

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