Slip Kid (It’s a hard, hard world)

Here’s an off day, meaning we get a chance to catch up on a few things. I have a few thoughts that have been rolling around in my brain, today’s a good day to get them out. One of the things we’ve done this winter is make everything black and white and I want to push back against that idea. In our zeal to prove ourselves right and others wrong, we’ve used hyperbole to push the narrative and perhaps missed the big part of the story.

What’s the big part of the story? This Edmonton Oilers team has an enormous base of young talent. The margins for winning and losing are so razor thin in the NHL, the Oilers (and Senators) could be right back in the final 8 (or better) next spring (2019).

This is a miserable season and there should be a reckoning, whatever that moment may hold. Let’s not lose sight of the big picture, the reason why getting the management and coaching is so important. There is dual work for a manager, build the system and push the NHL roster to greatness. Who is the man that can make this thing wheel? I do not have your answer. I will say it’s not complete darkness and you should remember that about this Oilers team. They have a wonderful story to tell, just not this year.

THE ATHLETIC

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Back in the summer, back when Jordan Eberle was being traded for Ryan Strome, we talked a lot about the team in 2017-18 and the overall organization depth at forward.

  • Lowetide blog, June 22, 2017This was a net loss and the trade could have waited until next summer. It continues a trend of getting less than 100 cents on the dollar in feature trades that may eventually cost Peter Chiarelli his job as general manager of this organization. I don’t see it happening any time soon. If both Jesse Puljujarvi and Tyler Benson turn out, and the club can grab one of Eeli Tolvanen, Kailer Yamamoto, Robert Thomas or Josh Norris, things should start coming together in terms of forward depth. Spencer Foo may arrive next week and he could be part of the future. This trade was a net loss, but I do like the bet. Ryan Strome is a big center who has struggled in an organization famous for sabotaging their own youths. Strome is a lesser player, but not necessarily a lesser talent. Todd McLellan may unlock Strome and that’s the bet the club made. We Wait. Source

I have a few things wrong (was looking at the good draft work done by PC’s group, and also thinking the McDavid-Talbot magic would hold for a second season), but the prospects are coming around (although they are some ways from landing) and I maintain the Strome story doesn’t have to end badly (nor should it end after 44 games).

You can’t find many who have much good to say about Ryan Strome but this is early days. Strome didn’t get himself traded for Jordan Eberle, so let’s talk about the player. Here are his year over year numbers:

That’s pretty close folks, not much difference one season to the next. His shooting percentage regressed but 13.75 was unrealistic for 5×5. Needs to shoot more, he had good linemates both seasons (43 percent of his time with Brock Nelson last year, 33 percent with Leon Draisaitl this year) and isn’t playing much with Connor McDavid.

I know it’s sexy these days to bury everything Peter Chiarelli touched, I understand the disappointment of another season at the bottom of the coulee. Strome isn’t dynamic but that doesn’t mean he is incapable of playing a complementary role. If the club can get him on a reasonable contract, Strome could be part of the solution next season.

Ethan Bear is one of the emerging stories at the pro level this season, I’d rank him just behind the NHL steps made by Jesse Puljujarvi and Darnell Nurse. You never know with defensemen, all you can do is track their response to challenges and assume there isn’t a Denver boot in their game that will keep them from becoming an NHL player. Our man Bear is at least a year away by my estimates but there are good arrows.

That’s some nice company, the Oilers have at least two (Caleb Jones) legit defensive prospects in Bakersfield and who knows maybe a third (Ryan Mantha). This blog tracked a trio of college men (Jeff Petry, Taylor Chorney, Cody Wild) a decade ago, the lesson being one will turn out, one will not make it and a third will be a tweener. We don’t have much separation yet between Bear and Jones, perhaps that’s a good sign.

Mr. Seravalli has two Oilers on his list (Patrick Maroon, Mark Letestu) and they should fetch something of use (my latest article at The Athletic discusses some possibilities).

  • Bob McKenzie: “The Edmonton Oilers – outright disaster in Edmonton the way their season has gone. Maroon had a career year last year, hasn’t been that good this year. And he’s the type of guy along with maybe Mark Letestu, Mike Cammalleri – if you’re on an expiring contract in Edmonton, you quite likely could be available.” Source

Ideally the Oilers grab a plug-and-play option for Maroon, maybe a mid-round draft pick for Letestu. Mike Cammalleri may also get dealt, I’ve been impressed with him in the last several weeks. What about blue? Brandon Davidson? Matt Benning? I’d keep both men.

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325 Responses to "Slip Kid (It’s a hard, hard world)"

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  1. OriginalPouzar says:

    I have not given up on Ryan Strome and I am analyzing his play and assessing his situation removed from the Eberle trade. Strome is currently an Oiler and soon to be an RFA – he got traded for Jordan Eberle but that should mean nothing with respect to how we move forward with this asset (and I think current management has shown they will walk away player acquired even if the price was high – Reinhart).

    Strome has both met expectations and been disappointing. He’s met expectations in the sense that his box cars a P/60 match his recent history. At the same time, we hoped for some development with a fresh start and, more than anything, some consistency on the ice and his versatility to make a difference.

    We thought he would be the Drai mirror man with significant time at 1RW – he’s essentially lined up for zero shifts as 1RW (2 games in pre-season and that was it).

    Strome has shown flashes of talent, ability, drive and effort and I am watching him closely in the last 40 games (even though I’ve been told his performance in the next 40 games is meaningless).

    I am looking for Strome to play 3C for essentially the rest of the year and the team to analyze his ability to fill that position next year. He had a very good game a few nights ago. Yes, it was only one game but he was one of the best forwards on a good night for the team. He made a difference.

    Can he bring that game every night? If he can do that as a 3C then we’ve filled an open winger spot in the top 6 as it allows one of the 3 centers to shift to wing.

    Of course, $3M is too much and that’s what the Oilers will need to qualify Strome at in order to retain him as an RFA. I would think that, assuming they want to keep the player, they negotiate a contract for a lower cap hit prior to the deadline to submit the qualifying offer.

    Go Oilers!

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  3. OriginalPouzar says:

    Its really nice to have Bear back in the lineup in Bakersfield.

    He needs to be playing and playing alot. Those 14-15 games missed with the concussion really hurt as he was playing well prior to the injury. It looks like its taken him a few games to get back in to it but, as I said earlier this morning, it was a nice little pass to Pak for the OT winner.

    I would think that Bear, Jones, Mantha are all slated to be back in California next year.

    Unless moves are made to the defensive group, we don’t really have any room for a rookie in any event – it will allow us to slow-play all the young prospects.

    Further, there should be an influx of offensive talent in Bakersfield next season (Yamamoto, Benson, Hebig) and it will be nice for the d-man to have some more talent up front to play with.

  4. OriginalPouzar says:

    Do we think that either Berglund or Lagesson will look to come over next year. I think it was Berglund that just signed an extension in the SEL so maybe Lagesson?

    Also, I assume Rasanen will spend another year at college? I really liked his play at the WJC. He’s likely still a distant bell but I’m cheering for him to be the 3C of the future (not until, what, 2021 thought?).

    Rasanen seems to be an all-situations type of guy – a poor man’s Horcoff perhaps.

    He likes to set up shop in front of the net as well and that is a skill in itself.

  5. OriginalPouzar says:

    There is always a market for a savy veteran.

    I look for a Cammy trade to recoup the 4th/5th given up for Montoya.

  6. flea says:

    OriginalPouzar,

    Do you think his agent would go for a lower contract if there wasn’t at least some term attached? Why would you leave $3M on the table to sign for $1.5M? Maybe no one picks him up at $3M?

  7. Woodguy v2.0 says:

    That’s pretty close folks, not much difference one season to the next. His shooting percentage regressed but 13.75 was unrealistic for 5×5. Needs to shoot more, he had good linemates both seasons (43 percent of his time with Brock Nelson last year, 33 percent with Leon Draisaitl this year) and isn’t playing much with Connor McDavid.

    I know it’s sexy these days to bury everything Peter Chiarelli touched, I understand the disappointment of another season at the bottom of the coulee. Strome isn’t dynamic but that doesn’t mean he is incapable of playing a complementary role. If the club can get him on a reasonable contract, Strome could be part of the solution next season

    Here’s the thing though:

    Chiarelli went on record saying “Ryan hasn’t performed as expected”

    That is a direct quote from the RIshaug interview.

    Here is Strome’s 5v5 pts/60 over his career:

    13/14 1.47
    14/15 2.36
    15/16 1.33
    16/17 1.58
    17/18 1.39

    Peter says “Ryan hasn’t performed as expected”

    So my question is: “Peter, What were you expecting and why were you expecting it?”

    He is performing pretty much identically as his last 2 years and 3 of the last 4.

    This is another data point for “The Chiarelli Oilers do not know how to value players”

  8. Lowetide says:

    OriginalPouzar:
    Do we think that either Berglund or Lagesson will look to come over next year.I think it was Berglund that just signed an extension in the SEL so maybe Lagesson?

    Also, I assume Rasanen will spend another year at college? I really liked his play at the WJC.He’s likely still a distant bell but I’m cheering for him to be the 3C of the future (not until, what, 2021 thought?).

    Rasanen seems to be an all-situations type of guy – a poor man’s Horcoff perhaps.

    He likes to set up shop in front of the net as well and that is a skill in itself.

    Lagesson is signed, expect we’ll see him in Bakersfield this fall.

  9. Clay says:

    Maybe being out of it means McLellan tries Strome on 97’s starboard side? With the line blending we see nightly, it feels like the coach has an “I’ll try any combo but that one” policy, which I don’t get. Didn’t Strome pot a few in the preseason while on McDavid’s line? At this point, what could it hurt?

    Yes, he hasn’t earned it. But let’s be honest, if the Oilers lineup was populated by players who’d earned their ice time, this year you’d have 2/3 of the lineup eating popcorn each night.

    On the trade front – I fear what Chia could do to this team. If he seriously “feels the heat” (his words) for the team’s performance, he may make moves with the short-term in mind, and that could be disastrous. His comments where he defends the Eberle trade using the fear of a Draisaitl O/S as an excuse displays a major lack in salary cap knowledge, and so that brings in to question his decision making process as a whole (imho).

    Everyone is calling for change – but change under panic or pressure rarely equates to improvement. Things could still get a whole. lot. worse.

  10. Lowetide says:

    Woodguy v2.0:
    That’s pretty close folks, not much difference one season to the next. His shooting percentage regressed but 13.75 was unrealistic for 5×5. Needs to shoot more, he had good linemates both seasons (43 percent of his time with Brock Nelson last year, 33 percent with Leon Draisaitl this year) and isn’t playing much with Connor McDavid.


    I know it’s sexy these days to bury everything Peter Chiarelli touched, I understand the disappointment of another season at the bottom of the coulee. Strome isn’t dynamic but that doesn’t mean he is incapable of playing a complementary role. If the club can get him on a reasonable contract, Strome could be part of the solution next season

    Here’s the thing though:

    Chiarelli went on record saying “Ryan hasn’t performed as expected”

    That is a direct quote from the RIshaug interview.

    Here is Strome’s 5v5 pts/60 over his career:

    13/14 1.47
    14/15 2.36
    15/16 1.33
    16/17 1.58
    17/18 1.39

    Peter says “Ryan hasn’t performed as expected”

    So my question is: “Peter, What were you expecting and why were you expecting it?”

    He is performing pretty much identically as his last 2 years and 3 of the last 4.

    This is another data point for “The Chiarelli Oilers do not know how to value players”

    I deliberately stayed away from the three Chiarelli interviews (save a brief referene to a Rishaug clip) because collectively they didn’t make a lot of sense. There’s a ton in there that talks back against itself, Jon Willis did a great job sussing it out (article link above).

  11. Scungilli Slushy says:

    I heard some of Babcock’s comments after their loss last night. Sounds exactly like our coach. They are having the same issues with youth and a weaker D group and are regressing from a hot start.

    Maybe things are going as they should be with a roster not yet in balance and not enough cover in key places, and the coach is doing what experienced coaches do to get a young team playing like contenders do.

  12. CrazyCoach says:

    Nice to see Ethan Bear doing so well.

    He reminds of a guy here in my city, Chad Ghostkeeper, who plays the same style. Nice skater, great shooter, low center of gravity. They call him, “Chips”, and he runs his own little sports shop in town. Great guy. World class fastpitch player to. Always being flown down south somewhere as a hired gun. He probably would have went somewhere for his hockey, but somehow his last name seemed to be an issue for some.

    Times do change though and I’m so excited/ glad to see Bear get a shot, and my hope is to see him in an Oilers uniform one day. Maybe not even next season or the one after that, but someday.

    Cheers

  13. vinotintazo says:

    Woodguy v2.0: So my question is: “Peter, What were you expecting and why were you expecting it?”

    When the trade was made, I believe he viewed him a a Center that could play RW. He was hoping a change of scenery would turn out like it did for Niderrider.

    Has not worked out so far, but I’m still hoping it does, the kid has some skills.

    Issues with him at 3C:
    -Has not played there much, when he does usually no impact.
    -FO win % not great

    I think his point totals are ok for a 3rd liner. here is hoping he sings for < 3M.

  14. Kinger_Oil.redux says:

    – Great post LT! About your thinking about things: after going through the posts yesterday:

    – What if the OIL “knew” that this was going to be a tough year? There have been some tells along this line: Chia said in the summer that the team last year “exceeded expectations”. Coach was worried about the how the team would respond. Chia now saying “we should have set expectations better”. Quotes about “growth year”

    – Now of course, I’m sure they didn’t think it would be so bad: flu bug/injury/badluck/special teams/goalering/systems thingies/brutal sh%, etc

    – But what if the OIL knew that there would be normal regression from guys like McD and Drai, as they adjust to being pros. What if they determined that going on all in this year was not possible, without mortgaging the future too much, and the made this evaluation

    – What if the Oil, their plan was: let’s hold on, and then at the deadline, we can make a push, but we can’t fix everything now and win the Cup, without a lot of things going the right wasy

    – What if the Oil actually know more than we do, and while they are disappointed with the season nothwithstanding: they knew more than the fans did about who the team was right now?

    – Next year though: with the emergence of Jar, Pool and Nurse (and Benning at least passable as 3RD), along with the rest of the bona-fides, they know exactly where they are now

    – For what it’s worth, it calmed my tits, contemplating the possibility that the Org knew better than we did, and while they didn’t envision suck this bad, they actually have a longer term plan than “this is the best year to win because McD is on a cheap contract for one more year”?

  15. dustrock says:

    Suspect they fell for the “he’ll be excited to be on a new team and he’ll maybe get to play with McDavid, who rises all boats”.

  16. OriginalPouzar says:

    flea:
    OriginalPouzar,

    Do you think his agent would go for a lower contract if there wasn’t at least some term attached? Why would you leave $3M on the table to sign for $1.5M? Maybe no one picks him up at $3M?

    I don’t think he’d be leaving $3M on the table.

    The Oilers would probably not tender a qualifying offer and he’d become a UFA and I don’t think he’s get anything near $3M in free agency.

  17. JimmyV1965 says:

    Clay:
    Maybe being out of it means McLellan tries Strome on 97’s starboard side?With the line blending we see nightly, it feels like the coach has an “I’ll try any combo but that one” policy, which I don’t get.Didn’t Strome pot a few in the preseason while on McDavid’s line?At this point, what could it hurt?

    Yes, he hasn’t earned it.But let’s be honest, if the Oilers lineup was populated by players who’d earned their ice time, this year you’d have 2/3 of the lineup eating popcorn each night.

    On the trade front – I fear what Chia could do to this team.If he seriously “feels the heat” (his words) for the team’s performance, he may make moves with the short-term in mind, and that could be disastrous.His comments where he defends the Eberle trade using the fear of a Draisaitl O/S as an excuse displays a major lack in salary cap knowledge, and so that brings in to question his decision making process as a whole (imho).

    Everyone is calling for change – but change under panic or pressure rarely equates to improvement.Things could still get a whole. lot. worse.

    I would think Chia no longer has carte blanche on trades. I’m sure there will be more scrutiny from the talking heads above him, similar to what happened in Boston near the end of his tenure there.

  18. Lowetide says:

    CrazyCoach:
    Nice to see Ethan Bear doing so well.

    He reminds of a guy here in my city, Chad Ghostkeeper, who plays the same style.Nice skater, great shooter, low center of gravity.They call him, “Chips”, and he runs his own little sports shop in town.Great guy.World class fastpitch player to.Always being flown down south somewhere as a hired gun.He probably would have went somewhere for his hockey, but somehow his last name seemed to be an issue for some.

    Times do change though and I’m so excited/ glad to see Bear get a shot, and my hope is to see him in an Oilers uniform one day. Maybe not even next season or the one after that, but someday.

    Cheers

    It’s one of the things that impacts/impacted for sure, I believe that to be true. It is, of course, insane. Jim Neilson benefited from getting a last name that didn’t close doors, would he have played 1,000+ NHL games with his Cree name? Of all the stupid things that can be barriers, your name shouldn’t make the list.

  19. Lowetide says:

    Kinger_Oil.redux:
    – Great post LT!About your thinking about things: after going through the posts yesterday:

    – What if the OIL “knew” that this was going to be a tough year?There have been some tells along this line:Chia said in the summer that the team last year “exceeded expectations”.Coach was worried about the how the team would respond.Chia now saying “we should have set expectations better”.Quotes about “growth year”

    – Now of course, I’m sure they didn’t think it would be so bad: flu bug/injury/badluck/special teams/goalering/systems thingies/brutal sh%, etc

    – But what if the OIL knew that there would be normal regression from guys like McD and Drai, as they adjust to being pros.What if they determined that going on all in this year was not possible, without mortgaging the future too much, and the made this evaluation

    – What if the Oil, their plan was: let’s hold on, and then at the deadline, we can make a push, but we can’t fix everything now and win the Cup, without a lot of things going the right wasy

    – What if the Oil actually know more than we do, and while they are disappointed with the season nothwithstanding: they knew more than the fans did about who the team was right now?

    – Next year though: with the emergence of Jar, Pool and Nurse (and Benning at least passable as 3RD), along with the rest of the bona-fides, they know exactly where they are now

    – For what it’s worth, it calmed my tits, contemplating the possibility that the Org knew better than we did, and while they didn’t envision suck this bad, they actually have a longer term plan than “this is the best year to win because McD is on a cheap contract for one more year”?

    I honestly can’t imagine any of these men, PC to McLellan and all in between, would sacrifice a season.

  20. godot10 says:

    Ryan Strome is a worse version of Sam Gagner.

    Gagner provided 2nd line offense, and no defense. Strome provides bottom six offense, and no defense.

    i.e. Gagner has some value as a hockey player because of offensive ability. Strome provides no value as a hockey player because he provides no defensive ability as a bottom six player, and provides no offense above replacement.

  21. Kinger_Oil.redux says:

    Lowetide: I honestly can’t imagine any of these men, PC to McLellan and all in between, would sacrifice a season.

    – Not sacrifice a season, but “growth” season. i.e. the fabled RHD passing D was too expensive, Benning over Franson, Jar over Jagr, etc.

    – I.e. they “hoped” they could win the Cup, but the mortgage on the future was too great

    – We can disagree as to whether it was the right strategy, but it’s more than possible that they didn’t go “all in”, because they made the determination they weren’t there?

    – Leafs, in Austin’s T+2, they talked down the team: fans here in T.O. know exactly where they are, what they are trying to do. Sure they’d like to win the cup, but they aren’t mortgaging the future. Suspect next year, the Leaf’s won’t be talking cup or bust in t+3 for Matthews either

  22. fifthcartel says:

    Strome is a useful player, but might not be one that fits the Oilers. I think someone made a Sam Gagner comparison and I like that. High-drafted RHC’s who put up middling numbers and haven’t solidified themselves at center. IIRC neither penalty killed much (89 may have a bit in Edmonton) so eventually they became C/RWs who play PP minutes.

    There’s use for a 35-point player who can play center and right wing. The Oilers need right-handed shots but can they have a 3C or 3RW that doesn’t kill penalties?

    There’s a place for Strome in the NHL. I think it’d be wise for Edmonton to move on either not qualifying him or trading him for a different player.

  23. fifthcartel says:

    godot10,

    Haha, I was writing up my comment so I didn’t see yours but glad to see someone else has seen/thought of that comparison.

  24. Lowetide says:

    godot10:
    Ryan Strome is a worse version ofSam Gagner.

    Gagner provided 2nd line offense, and no defense.Strome provides bottom six offense, and no defense.

    i.e. Gagner has some value as a hockey player because of offensive ability.Strome provides no value as a hockey player because he provides no defensive ability as a bottom six player, and provides no offense above replacement.

    Strome when playing with skill C (this is his 5×5/60 scoring number via NST):

    1. McDavid 3.94 (in 15 minutes)
    2. Leon 2.36 (in 177 minutes)
    3. RNH 1.23 (in 97 minutes)

    I think he could be a value contract and a complementary offensive player. It’s unwise to make these calls in mid-season but these numbers show promise.

  25. OmJo says:

    I’ll say this about Strome.

    Hated the trade the moment it happened and hate the trade today.

    But it makes no sense to trade him for Eberle and then refuse to play him with McDavid at all since he was brought in to replace Eberle at RW. Not fair to the player and I refuse to make him the scapegoat of the incompetence and apparent miscommunication between General Disappointment and TMac.

    He is what he is. A (frustratingly) inconsistent 3C.

  26. Dicky94 says:

    OriginalPouzar,

    He seems to be building some nice chemistry with JJ. He’s not afraid to muck it up in the corners either. When Cammy gets traded I would like to see Kassian on that line. Has a little more speed.

  27. Kinger_Oil.redux says:

    OmJo:
    I’ll say this about Strome.

    Hated the trade the moment it happened and hate the trade today.

    But it makes no sense to trade him for Eberle and then refuse to play him with McDavid at all since he was brought in to replace Eberle at RW. Not fair to the player and I refuse to make him the scapegoat of the incompetence and apparent miscommunication between General Disappointment and TMac.

    He is what he is. A (frustratingly) inconsistent 3C.

    – I tend to agree with this.

    – Strome hasn’t been given the opportunity to be Ebs replacement

    – But if you run McD, Drai, RNH as your 3 C’s: where do you slot Strome?

    – I think the “hope” was actually not the mirror man strategy, rather, a cheaper 3C, so that we can trade RNH for help elsewhere?

  28. OmJo says:

    Shame we couldn’t have traded him for Duclair. I think that trade would be a win-win for both teams and both players, so it makes sense why General Disappointment stayed away from it like it’s the plague. Even though he usually does well in small trades.

  29. Pink Socks says:

    OriginalPouzar:
    There is always a market for a savy veteran.

    I look for a Cammy trade to recoup the 4th/5th given up for Montoya.

    I agree this would be ideal.

  30. Brantford Boy says:

    Kinger_Oil.redux,

    Good stuff Kinger,

    Although I agree with LT’s (quick) response… I think if we were selling the farm Subban would be our #1 D and Drai and JP would be learning french… and yes the Jagr experiment, glad we passed on that one too… its not all lost, thanks for the calm well thought, back to grass roots post…

  31. OmJo says:

    Kinger_Oil.redux,

    Was it Lucic-Nuge-Strome early in the season? I thought they looked pretty good and were developing chemistry.

    As LT pointed out, he has 15 minutes this season with McDavid (idc about preseason). Was he so bad in those 15 minutes that he’ll never get another shot?

    I think that was the plan, too. While banking that one of Puljujarvi and Yamamoto could actually be the Eberle replacement. It would make sense based on how these 3 players have been deployed this season.

  32. OmJo says:

    Brantford Boy,

    This was why I wanted Jagr on the team, not so much for potential point production.

    http://www.sportsnet.ca/hockey/nhl/burke-says-flames-jagr-experiment/

    “He’s a great person. He’s really good in the room, we really enjoy him. He’s great,” said Burke, indicating that numerous Flames forwards, including rookie linemate Mark Jankowski, have cherished the opportunity to work alongside Jagr

    “When a Hall of Famer like Jaromir Jagr tells you, you’re grateful for that advice. You’re like, ‘OK, I’m going to cherish that, I’m going to remember that, I’m going to remember that until I die,” said Burke. “[Jankowski] is going to tell his grandkids about those one-on-ones.”

    Which is exactly what this team could use in the locker room. This alone is worth $1M even if he only scored one goal this season.

  33. Pink Socks says:

    Regarding Strome… is it possible that management has learned from their mistake (29 on 97s wing) in a contract year? That being said, in Nashville, Strome played by far his best game as an Oiler. Beauty assist on the ridiculous offside no-goal, and was a factor on almost every shift. I would like to see Maroon fetch a decent prospect or a 2nd round pick, Cammy for the pick PC coughed up for Montoya, and Letestu for a mid round pick.

  34. Kinger_Oil.redux says:

    Brantford Boy:
    Kinger_Oil.redux,

    Good stuff Kinger,

    Although I agree with LT’s (quick) response… I think if we were selling the farm Subban would be our #1 D and Drai and JP would be learning french… and yes the Jagr experiment, glad we passed on that one too… its not all lost, thanks for the calm well thought, back to grass roots post…

    – Thanks – I did feel better after this ephiphany.

    – For sure it wasn’t a “sacrifice” season, I agree with LT, but different organizations are on different timelines. As fans we want to win now, and forever

    – We will never know, and of course, they never imagined this season, but I’d rather believe the org made the call that going all in for the cup this year, was not possible, and/or too expensive, and that they couldn’t fix it all without “growth”

    – I bet the organization was more along these lines than “win or bust”

    – And there have been clues and tells to support this, nothwithistanding the not perfect execution by Chia/Coach/Players/Goalies

    – Anyway, others (not you Brantford) can carry on with the Chia is sh%t narrative…

    – Sure win the Cup this year, but don’t blow the load: grow it for sustained chances.

  35. Pescador says:

    Lowetide: It’s one of the things that impacts/impacted for sure, I believe that to be true. It is, of course, insane. Jim Neilson benefited from getting a last name that didn’t close doors, would he have played 1,000+ NHL games with his Cree name? Of all the stupid things that can be barriers, your name shouldn’t make the list.

    Dick Assman says hi,
    I’ll see myself out…

  36. frjohnk says:

    Kinger_Oil.redux: Anyway, others (not you Brantford) can carry on with the Chia is sh%t narrative…

    Awesome.

    Just gauging some opinions.
    Which hiring was worse for Oilers?
    45%Eakins as coach
    55%Chia as GM
    624 votes•Final results

    EDIT: on twitter this week

  37. leadfarmer says:

    Woodguy v2.0:
    That’s pretty close folks, not much difference one season to the next. His shooting percentage regressed but 13.75 was unrealistic for 5×5. Needs to shoot more, he had good linemates both seasons (43 percent of his time with Brock Nelson last year, 33 percent with Leon Draisaitl this year) and isn’t playing much with Connor McDavid.


    I know it’s sexy these days to bury everything Peter Chiarelli touched, I understand the disappointment of another season at the bottom of the coulee. Strome isn’t dynamic but that doesn’t mean he is incapable of playing a complementary role. If the club can get him on a reasonable contract, Strome could be part of the solution next season

    Here’s the thing though:

    Chiarelli went on record saying “Ryan hasn’t performed as expected”

    That is a direct quote from the RIshaug interview.

    Here is Strome’s 5v5 pts/60 over his career:

    13/14 1.47
    14/15 2.36
    15/16 1.33
    16/17 1.58
    17/18 1.39

    Peter says “Ryan hasn’t performed as expected”

    So my question is: “Peter, What were you expecting and why were you expecting it?”

    He is performing pretty much identically as his last 2 years and 3 of the last 4.

    This is another data point for “The Chiarelli Oilers do not know how to value players”

    As opposed to all the Oil fans on here that fell for the pump and dump last year. Few of us were screaming that its a small sample size which was ignored by the people that squinted hard enough at the pump and dump and saw a good player

  38. frjohnk says:

    Kinger_Oil.redux: Chia is sh%t narrative

    Katz to Chia in 2015

    “you can trade anyone but McDavid plus use $9.5M per year and heck use 2NMC’s if you need, to bring in at least 1 top pairing Dman.”

    Chia to Katz in 2017
    “didnt really work out!
    got anymore money?
    can I trade another number 1 pick to try and get that elusive top pairing Dman?”

  39. McSorley33 says:

    Kinger_Oil.redux,

    – I think the “hope” was actually not the mirror man strategy, rather, a cheaper 3C, so that we can trade RNH for help elsewhere?
    ***************************************************************************************************
    Completely agree with this….

  40. jtblack says:

    I would suggest the Oilers over achieved last season and have under achieved this season.

    As LT says “The margins for winning and losing are so razor thin in the NHL,” ….

    But to add to the point, that is why it is Critical for a GM to fill out his roster and give his team depth. EVERY team has 5 or 6 Great players. The teams that suck, have no depth.

    AGAIN, PC has not delivered a quality Back up that can give the team some much needed wins.
    He missed the mark on D Depth and Winger depth.

    Because it is a RAZORS edge, the ability of the GM to add the proper Complimentary players is vital. PC will prob get 1 more attempt to get it right. If this team is not firmly in the playoffs early nxt season he SHOULD and WILL be gone.

  41. digger50 says:

    I think we need to keep Maroon. Good player on the ice and a glue guy for the team. If we trade him for beans we are just another less winger, and it is already a long list.

    I would like to see a good effort to keep him at a reasonable price.

  42. McSorley33 says:

    Ryan Strome has played *over* 300 NHL games already.

    Feel free to evaluate him on the final 38 games of the year ( I wonder if we will see
    any backup goalies down the stretch? ) but ask yourself if you think
    the Islanders organization already conducted this evaluation of the player?

    Then ask yourself if this feels like Deja vu all over again…

  43. frjohnk says:

    Kinger_Oil.redux: Chia is sh%t narrative

    Oilers wingers are 31st in goal scoring.
    Thats amazingly brutal with the center depth we have.

    Spector has changed his tune on the Hall trade, Spec and Stauffer see Larsson as a 2nd pairing Dman and the one big thing that Larsson helped according to Spector was stopping the goals against from last year, its not happening this year and if the Oilers keep leaking goals against “the (Hall) trade looks worse and worse.”

    Rishaug has said that Chia has always gotten the lesser return in every major trade.

    And if one thinks Talbot is part of the issue, only Maroon stands out as his only good trade. Kassian as a trade is a good move, but way overpaid as a 4th liner.

    Overpaid some of his UFA’s and RFA’s, but to Chia’s credit, some GMs do that, but this just adds to the mess.

    I have mentioned before that I was a big Chia supporter when he got here, defended him many times especially the Reinhart trade. Probably because I didnt like the OBC. My dislike of the OBC probably blinded me on the warning signs of Chias end in Boston and the Reinhart trade. Man was I foolish.

    His track record is woof.

  44. DBO says:

    if they keep Draisatl at wing (Right or left. I would love to see Puljujarvi with the Drai and McDavid), we still have solid to good centres at the NHL level. And if injury hits, you could move Draisatl back to centre.

    McDavid: Power vs Power. He can play anywhere against anyone.
    Nuge: Tougher minuets centre who will play aganst top lines from other teams if they don’t go PVP
    Strome: decent 3rd line centre with some skill and decent size.
    Khaira: Solid 4th line centre who can play wing, kill penalties and has size, grit and decent speed. quality 4th liner that can play 3rd line if needed.

    Key will be to get Strome on a value deal. Can he be signed for less then $2.75 mil (if he must get a 10% percent bump). Cause if you got him for $2 mill, then that is a solid cost for a 3rd line centre.

    So you need Strome signed to not much of a raise. And then fill the roster
    1LW/1RW depending on side Drai plays (can you find a deal like Maroon was 2 years ago?)
    3 RW (if Yamamoto goes back to Junior or AHL if he is eligible)
    3 LW (If Khaira plays 4C)
    2 RD

  45. Kinger_Oil.redux says:

    jtblack,

    – Sure : good stuff. If I’m right and the call was “growth” this year, – plus Chia would have/could have/should have done more: the org will sit down, plan the off-season accordingly, and go forward

    – That’s what a good organization does. Another year like this, luck included, and Chia will be done.

    – But somewhere between the over-achieve of last season, the under-achieve of this season, growth and some tweaking, this is where we are, and next year we be all Winnipeg, NJ, Dallas, L.A., etc

  46. Pouzar says:

    The 11th. Same as the 10th. I’m exhausted. Goin for nap.

  47. Kinger_Oil.redux says:

    frjohnk,

    – Last year Hall was injured and their team sucked.

    – Last year Larsson was great (and a beast in playoffs), and we were great

    – This year Hall is healthy, doing what healthy Hall does and their team is good

    – This year Larsson has been on IR, and our team sucks

    – Hall for 72 games is sub-optimal, as is injured Larsson

  48. McSorley33 says:

    Quick update on the 2015 kids…..

    Kyle Connor of the Winnipeg Jets has 15 goals this year.

    Worse, he has the temerity to continuing scoring goals despite the injury of Mark Scheifle

  49. bendelson says:

    CrazyCoach,

    Your story of Chad Ghostkeeper and the mention of his fastball skills had me thinking about my brief experience with the King and his Court. A few of them were hanging out at a fastball tournament I was at one evening (1990’s) and one of their players (not their pitcher) offered to practice with our team. He (again, NOT their pitcher) proceeded to pitch to us… from 2nd base. Never mind hitting the ball out of the infield, I’m not certain any of us made any kind of contact with the ball… and he wasn’t trying! He was just horsing around, laughing it up, having some fun. It was incredible. Now, in fairness, we were a horrible team (my time playing Winterburn fastball taught me how to lose) but I did hit over .400 one year (admittedly, I was an Otis Nixon type ‘slap’ hitter). Great guy. Phenomenal skills. And a very humbling experience in that batter’s box…

  50. Jethro Tull says:

    OmJo:
    I’ll say this about Strome.

    Hated the trade the moment it happened and hate the trade today.

    But it makes no sense to trade him for Eberle and then refuse to play him with McDavid at all since he was brought in to replace Eberle at RW. Not fair to the player and I refuse to make him the scapegoat of the incompetence and apparent miscommunication between General Disappointment and TMac.

    He is what he is. A (frustratingly) inconsistent 3C.

    He was not brought in to replace Eberle at right wing. People wanted a sacrificial lamb after the playoffs and Chia wanted to dump salary. Chia bet on either JP or KY replacing Eberle.

    Strome has done absolutely nothing consistently to show that he should play with Connor McDavid. Sure, try him, but some on this blog are setting up a narrative not limited to, but including a Yak scenario “never given a fair chance”.

    Strome scored 50pts once in 4 and a bit seasons in the NHL. Eberle already had a 76 and 65 in his first 4 years. So no, he wasn’t brought in to replace Eberle, the same as Larrson wasn’t brought in to replace Hall.

  51. OriginalPouzar says:

    OmJo:
    I’ll say this about Strome.

    Hated the trade the moment it happened and hate the trade today.

    But it makes no sense to trade him for Eberle and then refuse to play him with McDavid at all since he was brought in to replace Eberle at RW. Not fair to the player and I refuse to make him the scapegoat of the incompetence and apparent miscommunication between General Disappointment and TMac.

    He is what he is. A (frustratingly) inconsistent 3C.

    I don’t agree that he was brought in “to replace Eberle at 1RW”.

    He was brought in to provide versatility and stronger 200 foot play in connection with acquiring some cap space.

    I can’t imagine he was brought in to replace Eberle’s offence.

    I think management banked on a combination of Strome plus upticks in production from Slep, Caggulia and JP to replace Eberle’s office.

    That failed.

    With that said, the fact he’s received essentially zero time with McDavid is somewhat baffling.

  52. frjohnk says:

    I should also mention that Chia is not the only reason for our faceplant in this season.

    McClellan and his coaching staff own much of this as well.

    Our special teams are horrible. Im not sure what is worse, our home PK which is basically the worst in league history, or our limp PP. How does a PP with McDavid and Draisaitl suck that bad? Thats coaching.

    McClellan said he has no answer on why the PK is as bad as it is.

    I had an issue with my truck a few years ago and took it to the shop, head mechanic didnt know how to fix it. So I asked around, and took it to a shop that found out the issue and fixed it.

    Im not saying Chia has to fire McCellan or the assistants but if there is an issue and they cant fix it.
    FIND SOMEBODY THAT WILL FUCKING FIX IT!!
    Add to the coaching staff if you have to.

    If nothing is done to add to the roster ( get some shooters and better wingers for our centermen) not sure how one gets a top pairing Dman moving forward( hope for some big steps in development I guess) and our issues on the special teams are not fixed, we could be in trouble again next year.

  53. CrazyCoach says:

    bendelson: Your story of Chad Ghostkeeper and the mention of his fastball skills had me thinking about my brief experience with the King and his Court. A few of them were hanging out at a fastball tournament I was at one evening (1990’s) and one of their players (not their pitcher) offered to practice with our team. He (again, NOT their pitcher) proceeded to pitch to us… from 2nd base. Never mind hitting the ball out of the infield, I’m not certain any of us made any kind of contact with the ball… and he wasn’t trying! He was just horsing around, laughing it up, having some fun. It was incredible. Now, in fairness, we were a horrible team (my time playing Winterburn fastball taught me how to lose) but I did hit over .400 one year (admittedly, I was an Otis Nixon type ‘slap’ hitter). Great guy. Phenomenal skills. And a very humbling experience in that batter’s box…

    Sadly, the sport of fastpitch is in steady decline which is too bad. I think of guys like Darren Zac and Joey Basaraba who could really pitch. Zac was unreal. He had about 6 different changeup speeds. Phenomenal athlete.

  54. stephen sheps says:

    CrazyCoach: He probably would have went somewhere for his hockey, but somehow his last name seemed to be an issue for some.

    Lowetide: It’s one of the things that impacts/impacted for sure, I believe that to be true. It is, of course, insane. Jim Neilson benefited from getting a last name that didn’t close doors, would he have played 1,000+ NHL games with his Cree name? Of all the stupid things that can be barriers, your name shouldn’t make the list.

    What’s in a name? Plenty.

    Time to put my Sociology prof. hat on for the day (and this is actually rather apt, seeing as I start teaching my first ever section of Sociology of Sport on Monday) – the name issue is one that actually gets a lot of attention in labour and race related studies. In a different course I taught while I was in the US, I used a couple articles that attempted to look at the relationship between last names, zip codes and employment. The results of all of the studies were essentially the same: those with “Black sounding” names got fewer interviews than with “white” names, even with the same sets of credentials and work experience.

    Interestingly enough, in one study the students who performed the research rotated the same set of names and zip codes on their resumes just to see what would happen. When the African American kids used the “white” names (like the Jim Neilson example LT alluded to) and used addresses from the suburbs, they had no trouble at all getting first interviews – but the number of follow-ups, second interviews and job offers actually declined after the fact. Sadly these were relatively current studies, too, not from the 1960s but rather from the mid 2000s.

    I hope Bear gets his shot, too. I think he’s doing more than enough to earn it on merit so far in his young career. Hopefully the team sees it that way.

  55. SayItAin'tSo, Gretz, SayItAin'tSo! says:

    Scungilli Slushy,

    Kinger_Oil.redux,

    I posted this last thread but in light of the comments today I’m gonna re-post a portion here (apologies to FRJohn as we have a back and forth on the other going and I’ll keep that convo over there).

    SayItAin’tSo, Gretz, SayItAin’tSo!:
    A fascinating set of discussions here gents (some a little more testy than others but hey that’s how it rolls some times).

    A couple thoughts:

    1) I think its too early to be writing the definitive book on any one teams strategy and or build and here are a couple of factoids

    1a) Despite the love here the Devils have lost 5 straight and their schedule gets tougher in the 2nd half
    1b) Toronto is having troubles scoring goals and their porous defense is starting to cost them now that Andersen isn’t on one of his streaks a couple of blown leads and bitter endings lately
    1c) Despite all the negativity the Oilers (across all situations via Natural Stat Trick) are top five in CF, FF, SCF, HDCF

    As of now 1a and 1b will be discounted because those two teams are leaps ahead of the Oilers and that’s fair. But keep an eye on both in the 2nd half because I’m half convinced they are due for some regression.

    What I think is most disappointing for fans (and the toughest pill to swallow for some of us) is that after the 2015/2016 season there was a decision made higher up to reset the team age wise around McD/Drai (who are 20/22) respectively. If you look at the age range of the core pieces they conform to this. Last year’s run was great and I loved it, but consistently throughout the whole year, playoffs and offseason both TMac and Chia repeatedly said “we are still a growth team, we are still a growth team.”

    That won’t sit well with many folks, I sympathize and I’m not trying to justify any one specific move made by Chia and /or TMac but I still think there is a method to the madness here.

    Unfortunately for all involved the team decided to forget how to kill penalties at Rogers Place and left many a dud effort out on the ice this year.

    Playoffs are done but a lot of good can still come out of this season.

    The numbers tell me/us that they are closer to elite than bottom feeder, the turnaround will be quicker than folks assume.

  56. DBO says:

    What if this is the year we see the 3 for 1 go our way??/ Lol.

    Would anyone do:
    Maroon, Letestu and Klefbom for Letang?
    Would Pittsburgh? Saves them money, Letang has had injury concerns and they were rumored to be shopping him.

    Balances out our lineup on back end. Adds missing piece. And gives the Pens some cap savings next year while adding 3 solid pieces for a cup and playoff run.

  57. StixMalone says:

    OmJo:
    Shame we couldn’t have traded him for Duclair. I think that trade would be a win-win for both teams and both players, so it makes sense why General Disappointment stayed away from it like it’s the plague. Even though he usually does well in small trades.

    Hard to tell if Duclair turns it around in Arizona. To trade for Strome would be a gamble on both GM’s. Chia gambled on a few of his signings hoping for a career revival of sorts on Strome. Jury’s still out for some on this forum. I’m with O.P on Strome. I think we assess Strome for remainder of year and find out if he’s worthy to keep. Most players pick it up in a contract year. Always tough to come to a new team especially this one. I’m positive the systems are different here and a coach moving you around to see what you can do and where you fit. We traded him for Eberle to rid some cap space. Not to replace Eberle and in that lies the problem. He will never replace Ebs. As Larson will never replace Hall. We need to win a damn trade soon….
    Edit…If Duclair turns it around Chicago

  58. Scungilli Slushy says:

    OriginalPouzar: I don’t think he’d be leaving $3M on the table.

    The Oilers would probably not tender a qualifying offer and he’d become a UFA and I don’t think he’s get anything near $3M in free agency.

    I looked up comparable contracts and scoring to Strome. I think market rates for third line scoring (he’s 239th which puts him there) is about 3M. Some players in that range have higher contracts some are lower based on what contract they are on (RFA/UFA).

    His QO is 3M. If they still like him it is in the ballpark for market. I wouldn’t pay more though.

  59. JimmyV1965 says:

    digger50:
    I think we need to keep Maroon. Good player on the ice and a glue guy for the team. If we trade him for beans we are just another less winger, and it is already a long list.

    I would like to see a good effort to keep him at a reasonable price.

    We really have to trade him at the deadline. Imagine the howls if Chia doesn’t. We can always resign him in the off season. Would love to get some insights into the team’s fall from grace from players like Maroon and Letestu after they are traded.

  60. frjohnk says:

    Kinger_Oil.redux:
    frjohnk,

    – Last year Hall was injured and their team sucked.

    – Last year Larsson was great (and a beast in playoffs), and we were great

    – This year Hall is healthy, doing what healthy Hall does and their team is good

    – This year Larsson has been on IR, and our team sucks

    – Hall for 72 games is sub-optimal, as is injured Larsson

    The gap between an injured Hall on a bad team while he is scoring 0.75 points a game versus a Larsson from last year on a good team also factoring in salary is still a sizable gap.

    If one ( and I did this last year ) could see Larsson taking a step forward from last year and Hall being that injured forward who is going to score in the 0.7 range and does not replicate his close to allstar years from 2013 or 2014, then I could stomach the trade.

    This year, a injured Larsson on a poor team compared to a Hall who is scoring a point per game and is just shy of McDavid in some of the micro stats such as zone exits, zone entries, getting the puck to the homeplate area and passing plays that contrubute to scoring chances and who looks to be banging on the all star team door ( some in the East see Hall getting some Hart trophy votes but the Devils have stumbled as of late) isnt even close.

  61. StixMalone says:

    DBO,

    Too much for Letang. Never healthy…

  62. Kinger_Oil.redux says:

    SayItAin’tSo, Gretz, SayItAin’tSo!,

    – yes it was a great post! Was going to tell you to repost it here

    – One day, Chia will get fired, because “bleeding value”, “trading superstars”, “over-paying”, “poor cap management”. And then many can all say: “told you so” Whether its before or after Cups: TBD

  63. Bag of Pucks says:

    One of the points that I raised earlier this week is how Chiarelli is derided for value on trade returns, while MacLellan is seemingly given a free pass for not making the most of the talent he’s provided.

    Eberle, Pouliot, Hendricks fail to flourish with TMac, and then fit with their new teams? We anticipate players like Strome, Jokinen or Cammaleri addressing core roster needs, and again the HC fails to find a fit for the puzzle piece?

    So, while it is entirely possibly that Chiarelli is selling too low on players and/or he’s getting cents back on the dollar, it is also conceivable that the HC is tanking the value of outgoing assets while failing to appreciate the value of incoming assets. Again, Rutherford magically appears to be a far more capable GM after he replaces Johnston with Sullivan. This speaks to the demonstrable impact the HC has in terms of maximizing the roster he’s provided. Perhaps our greatest failing as a community is overrating the impact of the GM whilst underrating the impact of the HC?

    On the subject of trade return, I’ve often felt Chiarelli’s key issue as a GM is his contract and salary cap management and I wonder if that isn’t the larger issue as opposed to any alleged failings he has a talent evaluator? First, based on his drafting record and the fact he made his bones as an assistant GM, I think Chiarelli recognizes talent, both emerging and experienced.

    As fans, we don’t like the returns on the Hall and Eberle trades, but what we’re not privy to is the internal discussions on salary structure for the org longterm. We as fans reasonably feel that there’s a way to pay all of McDavid, Draisaitl, Hall and Eberle under the cap. But what if Katz doesn’t feel that way? Once they drafted Connor, they knew he was going to get the big bucks within 3 years. What if part of the internal mandate is, we’re resetting the core now as Connor and Leon and that means moving out some money to pay them. Teams are never going to admit to fans when moves are predicated on paring salary, and while it doesn’t make the Hall or Eberle trades anymore palatable, it would certainly help to explain why the organization would signoff on the trades in question. Organizations are funny beasts this way. Their could definitely have been some residual resentment that Hall and Eberle were both pay significant monies that never truly translated into the desired returns (i.e. wins) for the team. I don’t think that’s fair, but I’ve been around enough rich folks to know how they think.

    There was a lot of rhetoric around the time of the McDavid and Leon contracts of Chiarelli’s worry over offer sheets. Most of it seems unfounded in hindsight, but I do think these are the things that keep GMs up at night. You start thinking about Nurse’s next contract or what happens as Nuge approaches UFA, or what if JP absolutely blows up in his second season as a pro? Chiarelli does not want to be caught in a situation where he has too many dollars pay out and not enough flexibility to negotiate. While we’re beating him up over not getting enough for Hall and Ebs, maybe we should consider the possibility that it isn’t talent evaluation that’s driving these returns, but rather a concerted effort to dump salary as it suits the overall roadmap?

  64. JimmyV1965 says:

    Jethro Tull: He was not brought in to replace Eberle at right wing.People wanted a sacrificial lamb after the playoffs and Chia wanted to dump salary.Chia bet on either JP or KY replacing Eberle.

    Strome has done absolutely nothing consistently to show that he should play with Connor McDavid.Sure, try him, but some on this blog are setting up a narrative not limited to, but including a Yak scenario “never given a fair chance”.

    Strome scored 50pts once in 4 and a bit seasons in the NHL.Eberle already had a 76 and 65 in his first 4 years.So no, he wasn’t brought in to replace Eberle, the same as Larrson wasn’t brought in to replace Hall.

    He also had multiple chances to play with Tavares and never stuck.

  65. Scungilli Slushy says:

    godot10:
    Ryan Strome is a worse version ofSam Gagner.

    Gagner provided 2nd line offense, and no defense.Strome provides bottom six offense, and no defense.

    i.e. Gagner has some value as a hockey player because of offensive ability.Strome provides no value as a hockey player because he provides no defensive ability as a bottom six player, and provides no offense above replacement.

    Sam Gagner 43GP 7G 12A 19 PTS 21 PIM (-17) 1.04pts/60
    Ryan Strome 44GP 7G 10A 17 PTS 19 PIM (0) 1.47pts/60

  66. JimmyV1965 says:

    DBO:
    What if this is the year we see the 3 for 1 go our way??/ Lol.

    Would anyone do:
    Maroon, Letestu and Klefbom for Letang?
    Would Pittsburgh? Saves them money, Letang has had injury concerns and they were rumored to be shopping him.

    Balances out our lineup on back end. Adds missing piece. And gives the Pens some cap savings next year while adding 3 solid pieces for a cup and playoff run.

    With Letang’s age, contract and injury history, I wouldn’t trade Klef straight across for Letang. Klef will be better next year.

  67. Scungilli Slushy says:

    JimmyV1965: With Letang’s age, contract and injury history, I wouldn’t trade Klef straight across for Letang. Klef will be better next year.

    Bang on. Don’t trade youth for a player in or approaching decline.

    It is very tempting to desire reputations. Almost always you are buying the ghost of that great player.

    The trick is to identify and get emerging players before they emerge fully. It is doable. Certainly not easy and some won’t work out, but they don’t cost the moon.

  68. Cassandra says:

    The difference between Padre’s reaction to Chiarelli’s record and Kinger’s “epiphany,” is pretty instructive.

    Kinger, a few weeks ago there was a moment when you asked the question, “how could I be so wrong about this team?” That was a good question and I thought you were on the verge of being able to see with clarity. You have always struck me as a thoughtful guy (not at all a simpleton) who wasn’t particularly good at seeing, because you were looking at the wrong things. This was the moment just before you “turned around”.

    Unfortunately you didn’t turn around. Instead you looked right back at the shadows of the cave and made up the best story you could to fit what you could see under the flickering light and shadows of artificial things. A more apt real life example of the allegory I’m not sure I have found.

    Padre, on the other hand, asked the same question. And in asking the question he has turned around and now he can see.

    It isn’t too late for you. You know your epiphany is a just-so story. You have to.

  69. hunter1909 says:

    One of my favourite Oilers ever:

    Mike Peca.

  70. Professor Q says:

    hunter1909:
    One of my favourite Oilers ever:

    Mike Peca.

    He deserved a Cup, my friend. Either in Buffalo or Edmonton.

  71. Melvis says:

    bendelson:
    CrazyCoach,

    Your story of Chad Ghostkeeper and the mention of his fastball skills had me thinking about my brief experience with the King and his Court.A few of them were hanging out at a fastball tournament I was at one evening (1990’s) and one of their players (not their pitcher) offered to practice with our team.He (again, NOT their pitcher) proceeded to pitch to us… from 2nd base.Never mind hitting the ball out of the infield, I’m not certain any of us made any kind of contact with the ball…and he wasn’t trying!He was just horsing around, laughing it up, having some fun.It was incredible.Now, in fairness, we were a horrible team (my time playing Winterburn fastball taught me how to lose) but I did hit over .400 one year (admittedly, I was an Otis Nixon type ‘slap’ hitter).Great guy.Phenomenal skills.And a very humbling experience in that batter’s box…

    Yeah, but you ever see the Queen and her Court? I couldn’t hit Rosie Black if she was pitching from centre field. 100mph fastball and 12 different pitches in her repertoire. Phenomenal player.

  72. dcsj says:

    Melvis: Yeah, but you ever see the Queen and her Court? I couldn’t hit Rosie Black if she was pitching from centre field. 100mph fastball and 12 different pitches in her repertoire. Phenomenal player.

    I remember seeing them in Drayton Valley, early 70s. They put on quite a show.

  73. Bag of Pucks says:

    Site indicating my posts are being routed to spam?

    Had no idea my writing had gotten that bad.

  74. Clay says:

    JimmyV1965: I would think Chia no longer has carte blanche on trades. I’m sure there will be more scrutiny from the talking heads above him, similar to what happened in Boston near the end of his tenure there.

    That does not inspire me with confidence. I’d rather have Chia in full control than the OBC pulling strings.

  75. Bag of Pucks says:

    Cassandra:
    The difference between Padre’s reaction to Chiarelli’s record and Kinger’s “epiphany,” is pretty instructive.

    Kinger, a few weeks ago there was a moment when you asked the question, “how could I be so wrong about this team?”That was a good question and I thought you were on the verge of being able to see with clarity.You have always struck me as a thoughtful guy (not at all a simpleton) who wasn’t particularly good at seeing, because you were looking at the wrong things.This was the moment just before you “turned around”.

    Unfortunately you didn’t turn around.Instead you looked right back at the shadows of the cave and made up the best story you could to fit what you could see under the flickering light and shadows of artificial things.A more apt real life example of the allegory I’m not sure I have found.

    Padre, on the other hand, asked the same question.And in asking the question he has turned around and now he can see.

    It isn’t too late for you.You know your epiphany is a just-so story.You have to.

    If you close your eyes, you can picture the above post as the Ring (Cassandra) speaking to Frodo (Kinger).

  76. godot10 says:

    Scungilli Slushy: Sam Gagner 43GP 7G 12A 19 PTS 21 PIM (-17) 1.04pts/60
    Ryan Strome 44GP 7G 10A 17 PTS 19 PIM (0) 1.47pts/60

    Both Gagner and Strome have played more than one year of hockey. Columbus had a great power play last year and Gagner was a great part of that. He was also key to the dominating 2nd unit PP in Krueger’s year. He has had multiple 40-something point seasons, which is reasonable 2nd line production.

    No defense with either player. Gagner can be a useful role player and specialist on a team. Strome is a poor option for a bottom six player because he is weak defensively.

  77. NYC-Back-to-Tokyo Oil (Gentleman Backpacker) says:

    Oooookay. Now we have some people claiming what if management knew the team would take a major step back to defend this utter abomination of a season? We all hate it. I get that. Together we suffer. Do not pretend that being a bottom 5 team was part of the plan. Come on!

  78. CrazyCoach says:

    stephen sheps: Time to put my Sociology prof. hat on for the day (and this is actually rather apt, seeing as I start teaching my first ever section of Sociology of Sport on Monday) – the name issue is one that actually gets a lot of attention in labour and race related studies. In a different course I taught while I was in the US, I used a couple articles that attempted to look at the relationship between last names, zip codes and employment. The results of all of the studies were essentially the same: those with “Black sounding” names got fewer interviews than with “white” names, even with the same sets of credentials and work experience.

    Glad to hear you’re teaching sociology in sports as well. I’m teaching KINS 121-The Study of Leisure and Sport, at the local college. I’ve always wanted to look at the process of “stacking” and apply it to First Nations hockey players. I have some hypotheses about such a thing.

    Cheers

  79. CrazyCoach says:

    Melvis: Yeah, but you ever see the Queen and her Court? I couldn’t hit Rosie Black if she was pitching from centre field. 100mph fastball and 12 different pitches in her repertoire. Phenomenal player.

    I have only heard about her. Legendary stories.

    Anyone ever remember seeing, The California Cuties?

  80. Kinger_Oil.redux says:

    Cassandra,

    – The games where they impose their will: that isn’t luck IMO

    – Top-5 in lots of possession, and scoring chances, heat maps, etc, that isn’t luck IMO, that’s the construction of the team, and style of play

    – Bringing that every game, night after night, that’s a learning curve. Coach needs to coach them up, and he will either learn to get the best out of them or he’s gone too

    – They have also had as some have pointed out, some stnd deviation away from expected

    – So either Chia is sh$t and he’s mainly the reason we are here, and on top of all his bad trades, he thought this was a Cup team this year, he told management”don’t worry boys, it’s all good, we are going to win the cup”, and he sat on his hands because: so they will for sure fire him.

    – Or this was a “growth” year that went off the rails, and the org keeps tweaking and getting better

  81. godot10 says:

    For people trying to trade Klefbom and his fantastic contract because they are disappointed in his play this season.

    He has been injured, and he is being poorly coached by McLellan and Johnson. It is just another case of them not coaching the player they have, and instead coaching the player they wish he was, but isn’t.

    They did this with Schultz and Eberle too. And Larsson.

    Nurse had the good sense to get himself a personal coach in Oates.

  82. Melvis says:

    dcsj: They put on quite a show.

    Other than great gams – she fanned Jimmy Wynn on the Tonight Show once.

  83. Side says:

    Bag of Pucks: If you close your eyes, you can picture the above post as the Ring (Cassandra) speaking to Frodo (Kinger).

    When I read Cassandra’s post and close my eyes, I imagine him collecting his farts into a paper bag and inhaling them deeply.

  84. Melvis says:

    It just occurred to me. Mike Peca for GM.

  85. Scungilli Slushy says:

    godot10: Both Gagner and Strome have played more than one year of hockey.Columbus had a great power play last year and Gagner was a great part of that.He was also key to the dominating 2nd unit PP in Krueger’s year.He has had multiple 40-something point seasons, which is reasonable 2nd line production.

    No defense with either player.Gagner can be a useful role player and specialist on a team.Strome is a poor option for a bottom six player because he is weak defensively.

    I would say Strome is inconsistent defensively. But Gagner is worse IMO and has 4 years more experience. Gagner has more proven scoring, I still wouldn’t want him back. Neither is my cup of tea because they are both hindered by weakish skating.

  86. russ99 says:

    Good post, LT, it’s not all doom and gloom,

    And if I hear the name of a certain Ex-Oilers player again, it will be too soon.

    I think Strome could be a complimentary piece next season, but that thorny $3M QO will need to be danced around.

    As for the rest of the UFAs and RFAs, sign Nurse, keep one of Davidson or Benning (I prefer steady Davidson to puckmoving tirefire Benning) and dump the rest.

    I’d like to see four veterans come in before next September to stabilize things and give the young core support: one at each wing, one at 3/4C and one RD with a good shot,

    Need cap space to do that. My biggest fear at this point isn’t trading, it’s keeping the same flawed team and being right back here next January, where we could be teetering closer to McDavid having enough.

  87. Kinger_Oil.redux says:

    NYC-Back-to-Tokyo Oil (Gentleman Backpacker):
    Oooookay. Now we have some people claiming what if management knew the team would take a major step back to defend this utter abomination of a season? We all hate it. Iget that. Together we suffer. Do not pretend that being a bottom 5 team was part of the plan. Come on!

    – I assume that’s pointed at me. That’s a dissapointing caracterization.

    – I said what if the team made the determination we weren’t ready to win the Cup, and going for it wasn’t the plan, because the short-term price to do so was too dear, vs growth

    – Maybe the plan was to “grow” vs be “all-in”.

    – Both you and LT have taken this as “I doubt the team threw the season away”

    – I have not heard anyone from Management/Ownership say: “it’s go time”

    – From Coach an GM, we’ve heard: “we exceeded expectations”, “This will be tough for the team to repeat”, “Growth”, etc…

    – To suggest that I was saying this team wanted to be this bad on purpose, that’s just silly. No one expected this result: it’s an awful season in terms of wins and losses

  88. bendelson says:

    Melvis: Yeah, but you ever see the Queen and her Court? I couldn’t hit Rosie Black if she was pitching from centre field. 100mph fastball and 12 different pitches in her repertoire. Phenomenal player.

    From a NY Times article (1985):

    ROSIE BLACK’S best pitches? ”Well,” she says, with only a slight hesitation, ”the riser, the drop, the sinking curve and the flat curve, the knuckleball, three or four changeups and I guess you’d have to include the in-drop, too.”

    And this quote is fun:

    ”C’mon, Rosie, Baby,” Mays called out to her. Zip. Zip. Zip. Willie Mays went down. ”She’s one of the best pitchers I ever saw,” he concluded.

    Rosie had 441 perfect games at the time of the article…

  89. HT Joe says:

    frjohnk: Awesome.

    Just gauging some opinions.
    Which hiring was worse for Oilers?
    45%Eakins as coach
    55%Chia as GM
    624 votes•Final results

    EDIT: on twitter this week

    I stand by my earlier comment. Without Eakins, the team would have been too good to win the 1st overall pick that landed us McDavid.

    With this tongue-in-cheek mental gymnastics, it’s clear that Eakins *spits* was a good hiring.

  90. HT Joe says:

    NYC-Back-to-Tokyo Oil (Gentleman Backpacker): Do not pretend that STILL being a bottom 5 team was part of the plan.

    Fixed it for you. 😀

  91. YKOil says:

    I think Strome at $3M is too much. The upside is gone here so two years at $2.25M would work for me and if his play improves a little I would go for two years at $2.5M. Otherwise I am looking for a savvy veteran. Strome isn’t good enough defensively or dangerous enough offensively to qualify as a savvy veteran.

    Chia’s dangerous tendencies – what I want I want – were obvious after the Hall trade. That is what makes the Eberle/Pouliot mis-steps so egregious. Assets wasted and now Cap space wasted. Awesome. Worried by a possible Drai offer sheet? Really? REALLY?? Right there, you’re not allowed to drive anymore.

    That said, even Fayne becomes a tradeable commodity given the Oilers have room to absorb the remaining cap hit (whatever the right number is). This also holds true for Maroon, Letestu and Cammaleri – see if you can get more by absorbing cap and cash. Especially cash.

  92. exoilinxs says:

    Lowetide,

    Why then, considering those numbers, does Strome not get more minutes with McD?

  93. Bag of Pucks says:

    NYC-Back-to-Tokyo Oil (Gentleman Backpacker):
    Oooookay. Now we have some people claiming what if management knew the team would take a major step back to defend this utter abomination of a season? We all hate it. Iget that. Together we suffer. Do not pretend that being a bottom 5 team was part of the plan. Come on!

    I think what Kinger is actually suggesting is the team knew they weren’t going to win the Cup this year, so rather than pursuing fading vets likely to have little impact (Jagr, Franson, etc.), they made a decision to develop and trial youth instead.

    Fwiw, it’s worth, I think this is one of the key distinctions btw Chiarelli haters and those who are, let’s say a little more forgiving.

    I like the youth development approach to long-term team building because young players are cheaper and more cost effective from a salary cap pov, you continue to grow your nucleus as a core, and you more quickly find out what you have in your talent pipeline. Nurse, Kharia and JP are now emerging solutions and Chiarelli has gathered more useful intel on what those contracts should look like going forward. You don’t get this if you bring in some stopgap FA D to block Nurse on the depth chart. Slep, Maroon and Kassian may have played themselves out of the longterm plans. Again, this is useful intel. Benning, KBom, Larssson, Drai, Caggiula, Talbot have all regressed performance wise this year. Not ideal, but if they’re going to do that, preferable they do it in a season where you haven’t gone ‘all in?’

    Don’t get me wrong. This team’s performance this year is beyond disappointing. I blame Maclellan preominantly, but from a roster and contract pov, things have been learned during this downturn that will serve the team well in the future. If nothing else, RNH may have resurrected his longterm future as an Oiler.

  94. LMHF#1 says:

    “McDavid is worth whatever happened” logic is flawed logic if you value titles.

    The post-2013 Oilers could have been a strong hockey team for many years given competent management and coaching.

    Instead it was the MacTavish-Eakins show and we were all doomed to watch junk.

    If the most important thing is watching flashes from one of the very very best – then sure. But if you want to see them hoist the trophy and have many shots at it? Remains to be seen and is multiple years late regardless.

  95. JD_Wry says:

    frjohnk: EDIT: on twitter this week

    Chief Wiggum voice

    That’s some fine sourcing, boys.

  96. SayItAin'tSo, Gretz, SayItAin'tSo! says:

    Kinger_Oil.redux,

    Bag of Pucks,

    +1000 Great Posts!

    My thoughts exactly

  97. HT Joe says:

    LMHF#1:
    “McDavid is worth whatever happened” logic is flawed logic if you value titles.

    The post-2013 Oilers could have been a strong hockey team for many years given competent management and coaching.

    Instead it was the MacTavish-Eakins show and we were all doomed to watch junk.

    If the most important thing is watching flashes from one of the very very best – then sure. But if you want to see them hoist the trophy and have many shots at it? Remains to be seen and is multiple years late regardless.

    I think this was directed towards me, in response to my post, but I thought I made it clear that this wasn’t a true way of looking at things by using terms like “tongue-in-cheek”, “mental gymnastics”, and “*spits*” (in reference to saying Eakins’ name).

    Or was this directed towards another post?

  98. Kinger_Oil.redux says:

    Bag of Pucks: I think what Kinger is actually suggesting is the team knew they weren’t going to win the Cup this year, so rather than pursuing fading vets likely to have little impact (Jagr, Franson, etc.), they made a decision to develop and trial youth instead.

    Fwiw, it’s worth, I think this is one of the key distinctions btw Chiarelli haters and those who are, let’s say a little more forgiving.

    – Thanks – that’s it in a nutshell. I also think they were “hedging”: they could finesse it and tweak at deadline, if need be, rather than be all-in with Jagrs, Fransons etc, in Sept, so saved powder

    – Another year like this though: I’ll be kissing Cassandra’s Frodo /Gandalf ring….

  99. Melvis says:

    Woodguy v2.0: Peter says “Ryan hasn’t performed as expected”
    So my question is: “Peter, What were you expecting and why were you expecting it?”
    He is performing pretty much identically as his last 2 years and 3 of the last 4.

    The questions of the day warrant an article in the Athletic or somewhere.

    Now about that forklift gig back at the store…

  100. OriginalPouzar says:

    Lines at practice today are the same as they were for the NSH game.

    Makes sense given they played quite well.

  101. Oilspill says:

    Klefbon is a perennial “minus player”. You can’t have a first pairing D have that..see Erik Karlsson. Yes you can win the personal trophy but the team loses. Everybody seems to forget the defense.

    godot10:
    For people trying to trade Klefbom and his fantastic contract because they are disappointed in his play this season.

    He has been injured, and he is being poorly coached by McLellan and Johnson.It is just another case of them not coaching the player they have, and instead coaching the player they wish he was, but isn’t.

    They did this with Schultz and Eberle too.And Larsson.

    Nurse had the good sense to get himself a personal coach in Oates.

  102. Material pocession says:

    Kinger_Oil.redux:

    – To suggest that I was saying this team wanted to be this bad on purpose, that’s just silly.No one expected this result: it’s an awful season in terms of wins and losses

    The team really isn’t that bad. Terrible special teams and poor goaltending can be corrected. 5v5 play has been good to great all season. People are drawing false conclusions and really working their narratives around here because they want to be viewed as ‘smarter than everyone else’. The right move is to stay the course and tweak the roster in the offseason — no major trades.

  103. Jethro Tull says:

    Oilspill:
    Klefbon is a perennial “minus player”. You can’t have a first pairing D have that..see Erik Karlsson. Yes you can win the personal trophy but the team loses. Everybody seems to forget the defense.

    Duncan Keith – currently -3
    Last year’s Norris winner – currently -19

    This is why +/- sucks.

    But what evs.

  104. Scungilli Slushy says:

    Bag of Pucks: I think what Kinger is actually suggesting is the team knew they weren’t going to win the Cup this year, so rather than pursuing fading vets likely to have little impact (Jagr, Franson, etc.), they made a decision to develop and trial youth instead.

    Fwiw, it’s worth, I think this is one of the key distinctions btw Chiarelli haters and those who are, let’s say a little more forgiving.

    I like the youth development approach to long-term team building because young players are cheaper and more cost effective from a salary cap pov, you continue to grow your nucleus as a core, and you more quickly find out what you have in your talent pipeline. Nurse, Kharia and JP are now emerging solutions and Chiarelli has gathered more useful intel on what those contracts should look like going forward. You don’t get this if you bring in some stopgap FA D to block Nurse on the depth chart. Slep, Maroon and Kassian may have played themselves out of the longterm plans. Again, this is useful intel. Benning, KBom, Larssson, Drai, Caggiula, Talbot have all regressed performance wise this year. Not ideal, but if they’re going to do that, preferable they do it in a season where you haven’t gone ‘all in?’

    Don’t get me wrong. This team’s performance this year is beyond disappointing. I blame Maclellan preominantly, but from a roster and contract pov, things have been learned during this downturn that will serve the team well in the future. If nothing else, RNH may have resurrected his longterm future as an Oiler.

    I agree and said as much in the summer that given the contract situations the smart play was to see which young players were going to step up. Being wrong or overpaying could cause a lot of issues moving forward. They still need to not overpay but the picture is far more clear.

    Would a few vet signings have brought a cup? Maybe but not likely at this point.

    Next season is different. No more evaluation should be needed. Keep the right players on proper contracts and shore up wisely. No more dumping players because of intangibles, acquire skill and keep it.

    As for Nuge at the very least he increased his value a bunch. I’m not sure they keep him. His play away from the puck hasn’t been stellar at times. If it was and he kept scoring it would be different. I could see him going for that D they need.

  105. digger50 says:

    Kinger_Oil.redux: – Thanks – that’s it in a nutshell.I also think they were “hedging”:they could finesse it and tweak at deadline, if need be, rather than be all-in with Jagrs, Fransons etc, in Sept, so saved powder

    – Another year like this though: I’ll be kissing Cassandra’s Frodo /Gandalf ring….

    Hmmmm.

    Kinger I distinctly remember right before Christmas you were banging your own drum. “ Chiarelli got it right, he has a master plan, it’s all coming together now”

    You were so determined to pat yourself on the back, so determined to be “right”

    As more and more evidence comes in you keep trying to say it was the plan all along. And if it was the plan all along, that’s just more evidence of incompetence.

    I appreciate your counter points, otherwise there would be no discussion.

  106. godot10 says:

    YKOil:
    I think Strome at $3M is too much.The upside is gone here so two years at $2.25M would work for me and if his play improves a little I would go for two years at $2.5M.Otherwise I am looking for a savvy veteran.Strome isn’t good enough defensively or dangerous enough offensively to qualify as a savvy veteran.

    Chia’s dangerous tendencies – what I want I want – were obvious after the Hall trade.That is what makes the Eberle/Pouliot mis-steps so egregious.Assets wasted and now Cap space wasted.Awesome.Worried by a possible Drai offer sheet?Really?REALLY??Right there, you’re not allowed to drive anymore.

    That said, even Fayne becomes a tradeable commodity given the Oilers have room to absorb the remaining cap hit (whatever the right number is).This also holds true for Maroon, Letestu and Cammaleri – see if you can get more by absorbing cap and cash.Especially cash.

    Why would one give Strome two years? One can find Strome’s on the market every year for one year and $1 million dollars. Dallas got PItlick, who is a better player than Strome and Kassian for a million dollars.

  107. hunter1909 says:

    Hunter1909 Emergency Death March™ Update

    Oilers terrible start to the season makes for DeathMarch 2.0; a Contest within a Contest! And it’s totally free to enter!

    More prizes for Emergency Death March™ winners!

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    Contest Book will remain open until mid February; either until the Yotes on the 15th or the Bruins on the 20th.

  108. Lowetide says:

    Melvis: The questions of the day warrant an article in the Athletic or somewhere.

    Now about that forklift gig back at the store…

    The answer is that PC sees him as a top 6F and McLellan sees him as being on the fringe. Similar to Puljujarvi, but with more experience.

  109. godot10 says:

    Material pocession: The team really isn’t that bad.Terrible special teams and poor goaltending can be corrected.5v5 play has been good to great all season.People are drawing false conclusions and really working their narratives around here because they want to be viewed as ‘smarter than everyone else’. The right move is to stay the course and tweak the roster in the offseason — no major trades.

    The PK has been horrid for over a calendar year now. The PP shows no signs of life. The 5×5 play is on a negative trajectory.

    What was broken is staying broken. And what was okay is breaking.

    The fan base and media has new whipping boys in Klefbom (the new Petry) and Draisaitl (the new Eberle).

  110. godot10 says:

    The mistake last summer was the premature departure of Eberle and Pouliot, two established veterans, a year before the salary cap forced their departure. And choosing Kassian over the better player in Pitlick, at twice the price.

    The cover for the young players was already here. Chiarelli and McLellan decided to get rid of it because McLellan didn’t like the two players.

  111. Melvis says:

    Lowetide,

    I’m not much into anything resembling clarifying detail, as probably noted. There are a number of people here who tend toward the serious hobbiest avocation, and I can’t keep up to that in any serious way. Not enough time in the day.

    That said, I also bordered the question, not only on Strome, but along a more universal set of expectations – seeing as there is a “plan”.

  112. unca miltie says:

    CrazyCoach,

    I played fastball with a Ray Ghostkeeper many moons ago

  113. frjohnk says:

    godot10: And choosing Kassian over the better player in Pitlick, at twice the price.

    Pitlick has had an injury plagued career, not surprised that they picked Kassian over Pitlick. Difference between a healthy Pitlick and Kassian is not much, but Pitlick is signed for less and takes less foolish penalties that puts the team on the PK

    EDIT: Lots to skewer the GM but I dont see this move as one.

    A 4th line of Pitlick, Khaira and Kassian would have been a cheap, fast, physical line that could occasionaly chip in on offense.

  114. Kinger_Oil.redux says:

    digger50: Hmmmm.

    Kinger I distinctly remember right before Christmas you were banging your own drum. “ Chiarelli got it right, he has a master plan, it’s all coming together now”

    You were so determined to pat yourself on the back, so determined to be “right”

    As more and more evidence comes in you keep trying to say it was the plan all along. And if it was the plan all along, that’s just more evidence of incompetence.

    I appreciate your counter points, otherwise there would be no discussion.

    – OK: last post from me for awhile: I will try to be clear as I can:

    1) I thought this team was good enough to win the Cup the year. It’s highly highly unlikely they will, I was clearly out to lunch!

    2) I agreed with the approach to develop internally, and build on awesome last year, no major moves, figure out what they had with the kids, etc, tweak at deadline when Sek is back

    3) Team sucked out of gate: all time worst sh%, terrible PK/PP, goalie brutal, flu bug, team didn’t cope well, Coach seemed stuck. But also great stats that this blog holds dear: possession, heat maps, etc

    4) Team had a great series of games where it seemed to click: imposing their will, responding after terrible games, goalie at least a bit better… That wasn’t luck IMO

    5) Was last year the team lucky, and this year is the norm, and Chia and the org are out to lunch and we are doomed.

    6) Or was last year a little above expectations, and the org knew it, and expected regression, and made the determination to have a growth year, figuring they could still win, and grow

    7) I clearly drank too much koolaide. I might be wrong, and Cassandra right, and this team is brutal, and those games were a mirage, and luck, and those possession stats are garbage (Georges says they are in terms of correlation to results), and Chia indeed is the worst GM, and we won’t have multiple Cup runs a la Chicago or L.A. or Pittsburgh.

    8) So maybe my “ephipany” is a way to solve for how bad this team is: and the Oil just are still a bad org, with the wrong coach (again) and the wrong GM (again) that thought they were good enough to win the cup this year by sitting on their hands

    9) If the org is comfortable that Chia is sh%t, and this season is a reflection of the team he built all on his own, and they have different stats to support this, and he was confident they had built a Cup team this year already: he’s gone (or more likely just a coup d’etat, without prejudice)

    10) So yes, I had a “narrative” that based on last year, the removal of Ebs for Strome wasn’t a game changer: the team would play .500 untill Sek came back (they almost did), and the team was starting to impose their will, and the Coach was making adjustments (save the special sits!)

    11) So because I don’t believe that Chia is a moron, and I believe the team has a plan, I’d rather believe my projections for the team were wrong.

    12) I can reconcile this by taking the tells that I chose about growth year, McL’s stuff at beginning of year about how tough it is, Chia saying last year they exceeded, etc

    13) So I remain hopeful and critical, and shocked by the actual results, and think they are a lot closer to the Cup in terms of development and progress than back to 0, and firing coach and GM (again)

    – A frustrating season for sure.

  115. CrazyCoach says:

    unca miltie: I played fastball with a Ray Ghostkeeper many moons ago

    I’m gonna say you are either from Saskatchewan or North Central BC?

  116. LMHF#1 says:

    HT Joe: I think this was directed towards me, in response to my post, but I thought I made it clear that this wasn’t a true way of looking at things by using terms like “tongue-in-cheek”, “mental gymnastics”, and “*spits*” (in reference to saying Eakins’ name).

    Or was this directed towards another post?

    It’s poking at the narrative, just as you were.

    Has come up again this year.

  117. Scungilli Slushy says:

    frjohnk: Pitlick has had an injury plagued career, not surprised that they picked Kassian over Pitlick.Difference between a healthy Pitlick and Kassian is not much, but Pitlick is signed for less and takes less foolish penalties that puts the team on the PK

    EDIT: Lots to skewer the GM but I dont see this move as one.

    A 4th line of Pitlick, Khaira and Kassian would have been a cheap, fast, physical line that could occasionaly chip in on offense.

    Kassian can fight. I think at the moment that is carrying a lot of weight. Maybe if the refs start calling things for McDavid it will change.

  118. frjohnk says:

    Scungilli Slushy: Kassian can fight.

    Yeah, that is a dimension the Oilers like and I dont think Pitlick really brings.

  119. Woodguy v2.0 says:

    Mark Spector

    @SportsnetSpec

    Oilers GM Peter Chiarelli informed all NHL teams by email today of Anton Slepyshev’s availabilty in a trade. The winger recently became waiver eligible.

  120. JD_Wry says:

    godot10: Dallas got PItlick, who is a better player than Strome and Kassian for a million dollars.

    And 3 years of term, no? For a player who had such a history of injury, that had Chia signed Pitlick to that contract, everyone would have been boiling tar and sharpening pitchforks.

  121. Oilman99 says:

    flea,

    Anybody wanting to pay $3m can have him.

  122. frjohnk says:

    Woodguy v2.0:
    Mark Spector


    @SportsnetSpec

    Oilers GM Peter Chiarelli informed all NHL teams by email today of Anton Slepyshev’s availabilty in a trade. The winger recently became waiver eligible.

    Im in Pouzars basement.

    Just heard a thud from upstairs.

  123. JD_Wry says:

    Woodguy v2.0: Slepyshev’s availabilty in a trade.

    Sober January too!

  124. Lowetide says:

    Mark Spector‏Verified account
    @SportsnetSpec
    Following Following @SportsnetSpec
    More
    Oilers GM Peter Chiarelli informed all NHL teams by email today of Anton Slepyshev’s availabilty in a trade. The winger recently became waiver eligible.

  125. flea says:

    Lowetide,

    Seems like kinda lazy GMing if you ask me.

    Chiarelli – “Well I could pick up the phone, start working a few angles and get the best price . . .

    Nah … ”

    (email sent)

  126. StixMalone says:

    Woodguy v2.0:
    Mark Spector


    @SportsnetSpec

    Oilers GM Peter Chiarelli informed all NHL teams by email today of Anton Slepyshev’s availabilty in a trade. The winger recently became waiver eligible.

    Guess it was coming….. he was not in TMac’s good books.

  127. JD_Wry says:

    frjohnk: Just heard a thud from upstairs.

    Dibs on his TV!

  128. StixMalone says:

    What is he going to get for him? All the GM’s know he’s available now. Is this how we do trades now just send out a generic e-mail????

  129. frjohnk says:

    JD_Wry: Dibs on his TV!

    Its an old style tube tv with rabbit ears.

    Pasted with Jets embloms.

  130. Oilman99 says:

    StixMalone,

    Duclaire could have been had for nothing off waves.

  131. Cassandra says:

    Material pocession: The team really isn’t that bad.Terrible special teams and poor goaltending can be corrected.5v5 play has been good to great all season.People are drawing false conclusions and really working their narratives around here because they want to be viewed as ‘smarter than everyone else’. The right move is to stay the course and tweak the roster in the offseason — no major trades.

    I actually agree with this. I don’t’ think the team is as bad as they look, and I think that by doing nothing it will be better the rest of the year and next year.

    So why do I nonetheless think this is a miserable failure, while others are willing to accept it as a “growth year?”

    Hint: It is because the goal posts have moved.

  132. Wilde says:

    I’d prefer to get a player back in a Slepyshev trade, than a pick.

    There’s still minutes available.

  133. Lowetide says:

    Melvis:
    Lowetide,

    I’m not much into anything resembling clarifying detail, as probably noted. There are a number of people here who tend toward the serious hobbiest avocation, and I can’t keep up to that in any serious way. Not enough time in the day.

    That said, I also bordered the question, not only on Strome, but along a more universal set of expectations – seeing as there is a “plan”.

    Alas, I fear there are two plans…

  134. frjohnk says:

    Lowetide:
    Mark Spector‏Verified account
    @SportsnetSpec
    Following Following @SportsnetSpec
    More
    Oilers GM Peter Chiarelli informed all NHL teams by email today of Anton Slepyshev’s availabilty in a trade. The winger recently became waiver eligible.

    Chia is probably hoping that the Arizona GM would see the email today and would offer Duclair in exchange.

  135. StixMalone says:

    This just in
    Buffalo Sabres have traded Justin Faulk to the Edmonton Oilers for Anton Slepyshev and a conditional 3rd round pick in the 2019 draft.
    Buffalo states that Faulk and Kane didn’t see eye to eye

    Wouldn’t this be nice if it truly happened. We need something good to happen…

  136. godot10 says:

    JD_Wry: And 3 years of term, no? For a player who had such a history of injury, that had Chia signed Pitlick to that contract, everyone would have been boiling tar and sharpening pitchforks.

    Why? A contract with a one million dollar AAV has essentially no cap impact. It can be buried entirely in the minors. One million dollar contracts is where a team can take a risk with term.

  137. Wilde says:

    StixMalone:
    This just in
    Buffalo Sabres have traded Justin Faulk to the Edmonton Oilers for Anton Slepyshev and a conditional 3rd round pick in the 2019 draft.
    Buffalo states that Faulk and Kane didn’t see eye to eye

    Wouldn’t this be nice if it truly happened. We need something good to happen…

    That’s… the wrong Falk.

  138. StixMalone says:

    Wilde,

    Spell check screwed it up cause the other one is better I guess lol

  139. Cassandra says:

    I am having a hard time the rationale behind this “growth year” idea. Because of the contracts Chiarelli has handed out, next year’s team is going to be essentially this year’s team minus Maroon and Strome, and everyone, a year older (for better or for worse) .

    There is no evidence that Chiarelli has been building for the future. The team is capped out and has a poor farm system. Where is this growth going to come from?

    Now, the team is going to do better next year. Of that, I have no doubt. But that won’t mean the team has grown, or that Chiarelli’s moves were justified, or that he has been vindicated. It just means the team has done better.

    No general manager should be evaluated directly by the results of their team. It is the least important piece of information we have. Results do not only reveal things, they conceal them as well.

  140. CrazyCoach says:

    StixMalone: This just in
    Buffalo Sabres have traded Justin Faulk to the Edmonton Oilers for Anton Slepyshev and a conditional 3rd round pick in the 2019 draft.
    Buffalo states that Faulk and Kane didn’t see eye to eye

    Let me fix that for you.

    Edmonton trades Slepy and Caleb Jones for Kane and a 6th round pick.

  141. godot10 says:

    StixMalone:
    This just in
    Buffalo Sabres have traded Justin Faulk to the Edmonton Oilers for Anton Slepyshev and a conditional 3rd round pick in the 2019 draft.
    Buffalo states that Faulk and Kane didn’t see eye to eye

    Wouldn’t this be nice if it truly happened. We need something good to happen…

    Buffalo wins that trade.

    #ThisIsNotTheFaulkYouAreThinkingOf

  142. StixMalone says:

    Wilde,

    I did mean Falk. Passionate to dish out shit to his entitled teammate Kane. We need that on this team. A good calling out…

  143. HT Joe says:

    LMHF#1: It’s poking at the narrative, just as you were.

    Has come up again this year.

    Thanks for clarifying!

  144. Justthestatsman says:

    CrazyCoach: I have only heard about her.Legendary stories.

    Anyone ever remember seeing, The California Cuties?

    I vaguely remember them playing against the local team in the early 1970’s. I would have been about 10 or so. It’s fuzzy, but I seem to recall their shtick was they were a men’s team dressed as women. Was that them?

  145. stephen sheps says:

    CrazyCoach: I’ve always wanted to look at the process of “stacking” and apply it to First Nations hockey players. I have some hypotheses about such a thing.

    I imagine that you do, and given that you introduced me to the concept a few years back I’d love to pick your brain about it a bit more sometime – offline of course.

    Let’s keep in touch about our respective courses throughout the semester. I know your students are all kinds of lucky to have you!

  146. Material pocession says:

    godot10: The PK has been horrid for over a calendar year now.The PP shows no signs of life. The 5×5 play is on a negative trajectory.

    What was broken is staying broken.And what was okay is breaking.

    The fan base and media has new whipping boys in Klefbom (the new Petry) and Draisaitl (the new Eberle).

    The PK incompetence is causing the downtrend in 5v5. The power play has been bad, too, and I do think that some new players and perhaps new assistant coach would help in these areas. The players are losing confidence and it carries over into other aspects of the game. I don’t think that Klefbom or Draisaitl have been unfairly targeted by the fans or media at this point. Klefbom and Larsson are both playing through injuries and it’s impacting their performance but they should both bounce back nicely next season.

  147. Gret99zky says:

    Lowetide: This was a net loss and the trade could have waited until next summer. It continues a trend of getting less than 100 cents on the dollar in feature trades that may eventually cost Peter Chiarelli his job as general manager of this organization.

    “The thing is, we develop a past.”

    And so we can expect this summer Chiarelli will trade RNH or Leon Draisaitl (at less than 100 cents on the dollar) for a top 4 defenseman or cap space.

    We wait.

  148. npanciroli says:

    Slepyshev will have a better career than Caggiula when all is said and done. This team is allergic to skill.

  149. StixMalone says:

    Reminds me of that great tale of what Messier did to Nichols ( I believe ) in the dressing room when he got mad at him. A great leader he was and not afraid to call a team mate out. Passion. We need some on this team. Now I don’t know if we have it in the dressing room or not. Does Lucic stand up in the room? McDavid? Nuge? I just want passion, emotion, a give a shit attitude for the remainder of the year. Let’s start by taking it out on Arizona. Going away for the weekend with no TV access. Will have to tunein here. Hopefully I can tune in to the radio…..

  150. Material pocession says:

    Cassandra: I actually agree with this.I don’t’ think the team is as bad as they look, and I think that by doing nothing it will be better the rest of the year and next year.

    So why do I nonetheless think this is a miserable failure, while others are willing to accept it as a “growth year?”

    Hint: It is because the goal posts have moved.

    It’s definitely not a growth year. The team was supposed to be a contender; for sure a playoff team. It’s a write off year.

  151. LMHF#1 says:

    Woodguy v2.0:
    Mark Spector


    @SportsnetSpec

    Oilers GM Peter Chiarelli informed all NHL teams by email today of Anton Slepyshev’s availabilty in a trade. The winger recently became waiver eligible.

    Stupidity at every turn.

  152. Wilde says:

    Players in the EC on ELC’s of note for this Slepyshev business:

    Curtis Valk : FLA Undrafted, 5.09 right shot, 29 in 35 AHL

    Boo Nieves : NYR 2nd rounder, 6.03 leftie, 9 in 26 NHL, but 1.9/60 ES, (oiSH% warning: 10.2 is high for the bottom six)

    Lucas Wallmark: CAR 4th rounder, left shot, 23 in 20 AHL, unlikely get, would be nice though.

    Nick Lappin: Undrafted NJD college signing, RW, 22 in 30 AHL this year, 29 in 35 last.

    Vinny Lettieri: Undrafted college signing NYR. 5.10, Right shot, 21 in 32 AHL.

  153. Material pocession says:

    npanciroli:
    Slepyshev will have a better career than Caggiula when all is said and done. This team is allergic to skill.

    They both have warts. Neither have much offensive acumen and both have been ‘meh’ this year. If I had to guess, Slepyshev is being moved because he’s being vocal (in a negative way).

    That said, Caggiula has been given a better opportunity than Slepy, even though he hasn’t done much with it. Not sure that I blame Slepy,for voicing his displeasure.

  154. CrazyCoach says:

    Justthestatsman: I vaguely remember them playing against the local team in the early 1970’s. I would have been about 10 or so. It’s fuzzy, but I seem to recall their shtick was they were a men’s team dressed as women. Was that them?

    Exactly. I saw them in Fort Mac in about the summer of 1976.

  155. CrazyCoach says:

    stephen sheps: Let’s keep in touch about our respective courses throughout the semester. I know your students are all kinds of lucky to have you!

    I’ve had two lectures and I have had to slow down. Think I’m sinking them.

    However, my last lecture featured a video clip of Jujar Khaira, so I’m hoping to expose them to all sorts of hockey.

  156. Material pocession says:

    StixMalone:
    Reminds me of that great tale of what Messier did to Nichols ( I believe ) in the dressing roomwhen he got mad at him. A great leader he was and not afraid to call a team mate out. Passion. We need some on this team. Now I don’t know if we have it in the dressing room or not. Does Lucic stand up in the room? McDavid? Nuge? I just want passion, emotion, a give a shit attitude for the remainder of the year. Let’s start by taking it out on Arizona. Going away for the weekend with no TV access. Will have to tunein here. Hopefully I can tune in to the radio…..

    Nichols was called out? Good. He’s an honest-to-goodness asshole. I got to play against him in a pro-am a few years ago and the guy is one of the biggest D-bags I’ve ever met.

  157. Wilde says:

    StixMalone,

    No team looks good losing. No losing locker room is good. We need to win, Falk starting shit in practice doesn’t help.

    This year is done, sell the UFA’s, audition young players even more, draft a forward unless it’s Dahlin or Boqvist in the top 5, pick 5+ times in the top 100, and try again next year. It’s stupid but we’re here. I look forward to everyone praising our leadership group again when we get .920 goaltending and league average special teams to go with our shot and chance shares.

  158. Snowman says:

    Slepyshev and Cagguila are both tweeners in my opinion. Both have wheels, both have some skill, both are inconsistent. Neither has a complete tool box and in my opinion neither has better than an average hockey IQ.

    I have time for both in the bottom 6. I have time for neither in the top 6.

    Having said that, why do the Oilers even bother with Russians? They get half the opportunity.

    This is another data point on Chiarelli having no idea how to evaluate NHL talent or this team.

    Slepyshev and Cagguila both considered top 9 options at the start of the year. Neither can crack the line up on a bad team consistently. For a team that rewarded playoff success they sure forgot who had success pretty quickly.

    Run this lineup for a few games? Definitely not going to happen but I’m not sure why…

    91-97-98
    27-29-58
    19-93-18 (wouldn’t this be a nice line with Eberle…salt meet wound)
    16-55-44

    How they have never ran those lines is beyond me. Give Mcdavid the worst wingers. He’ll still own play. Drai’s line worked against the ducks and Nuge and Maroon should work ok together. Seriously though having Eberle on that Nuge line would be a killer.

    Ah well… Sail on Slepy. Enjoy your time with Nashville or Tampa and your subsequent multiple Stanley cups.

  159. thehop says:

    LMHF#1: Stupidity at every turn.

    Slepy>Caggulia

    But you wouldn’t want to ice the best possible roster if you are the Oilers. Nope not a chance. Then again, this is the same GM and coach who think mid season auditions are a great way to build a championship team.

    I hope he scores 20 goals for the Flames.

  160. godot10 says:

    StixMalone:
    Reminds me of that great tale of what Messier did to Nichols ( I believe ) in the dressing roomwhen he got mad at him. A great leader he was and not afraid to call a team mate out. Passion. We need some on this team. Now I don’t know if we have it in the dressing room or not. Does Lucic stand up in the room? McDavid? Nuge? I just want passion, emotion, a give a shit attitude for the remainder of the year. Let’s start by taking it out on Arizona. Going away for the weekend with no TV access. Will have to tunein here. Hopefully I can tune in to the radio…..

    #ThisisNotTheNichollsYouAreThinkingOf

    Messier was traded for Bernie Nicholls. They were never on the same team. Jimmy Carson was the guy who Messier grabbed by the throat the raised him up against the wall.

  161. godot10 says:

    Caggiula probably has a handshake no-trade-clause to go along with his handshake games-played-guarantee.

    And McLellan’s good opinion once lost is lost forever.

  162. russ99 says:

    godot10:
    The mistake last summer was the premature departure of Eberle and Pouliot, two established veterans, a year before the salary cap forced their departure.And choosing Kassian over the better player in Pitlick, at twice the price.

    The cover for the young players was already here.Chiarelli and McLellan decided to get rid of it because McLellan didn’t like the two players.

    Addition by subtraction.

    I’ll have to find the tweet by one of the keyed in MSM, but it mentioned how both players were relied on by McLellan at the beginning of last season to show leadership for the young players, and both refused, and tried to keep playing their way. When you put a “A” on your sweater, selfishness shouldn’t be your top goal.

    Also, it was mentioned that Pouliot was offered around the league a few times last season with no takers.

    When you have a young impressionable core, keeping players who aren’t with the program for a few goals is a bad idea.

    And yes we should have signed someone to replace some of those goal. LOL

  163. Wilde says:

    The good thing about Slepyshev’s trade value is those playoff goals. I bet there was a lot of executives who were a fan of that 29 line.

    So I don’t think it’d be absurd if he brought back a PPG 22yo AHLer, which is better for the timeline than a 5th rounder or something.

  164. Woodguy v2.0 says:

    Ignore a big post you saw from me.

    Big math mistake in it.

  165. sliderule says:

    I would like the oilers to give Bear and Jones at least two or three games as a trial run

    The season is lost and I don’t think that they are that much a step down from Davidson or Benning.

    From what I saw last year and in exhibition games this year Bear will do as well as any oiler D on the power play.

    He has vision and has ways to get his quality shot thru the blockers.

  166. thehop says:

    Woodguy v2.0,

    What were Caggulias numbers with 29 and 97?

  167. russ99 says:

    Damn, WG, couldn’t have said it better. Props.

    Moving a player with 5 career goals over parts of three seasons who’s hitting RFA isn’t hemorrhaging skill. It’s doing him a favor, give him a shot to catch on with someone who may sign him this summer and not the KHL route.

  168. Wilde says:

    Woodguy v2.0:
    Hey look!

    I don’t knee jerk hate something Chiarelli is doing!!!

    Narratives are crashing left and right!!!

    I think at this point my pitchfork is on Todd for not wanting to at least showcase this player if he wants him gone. Toccher hated Duclair, still compromised wih Chayka and put him back with Dvorak this year to help him out.

    Duclair was shopped before showcasing though. Guess we’ll see if there’s another casualty in the Peter-Todd theatre if Slepyshev continues getting buried.

  169. Side says:

    Woodguy v2.0: Quote

    THANK YOU!

    I liked Slepy a lot last year but this year he didn’t seem to be putting on a stellar performance, didn’t understand the yearning for him this season.

    Do you have numbers for Cagguila? Since there are already Cagguila/Slepy comparisons in this thread?

    And I personally, feel like I have an irrational dislike for Cagguila, so I would like to gaze at some numbers to validate my dislike for him? What I’m saying is, I need to sharpen my axe, here.

    *EDIT* Great, WG will post some updated numbers which will show Slepy looking like the 2nd best forward on the Oilers this year.

  170. thehop says:

    Woodguy v2.0,

    Well fuck.

    I was excited about sparking a debate using those numbers.

    You owe me a beer.

  171. StixMalone says:

    godot10: #ThisisNotTheNichollsYouAreThinkingOf

    Messier was traded for Bernie Nicholls. They were never on the same team.Jimmy Carson was the guy who Messier grabbed by the throat the raised him up against the wall.

    Man I’m 0 for 2 today. Better have a couple rums but yes it was Carson! Wasn’t sure. Thanks for jogging my memory!

  172. CrazyCoach says:

    sliderule: I would like the oilers to give Bear and Jones at least two or three games as a trial run

    The season is lost and I don’t think that they are that much a step down from Davidson or Benning.

    From what I saw last year and in exhibition games this year Bear will do as well as any oiler D on the power play.

    He has vision and has ways to get his quality shot thru the blockers.

    I love Bear. I’m the president of h is fan club, but I would let him stay in Bakersfield. Let him gain the minutes down on the farm and recover from that concussion.

  173. Bag of Pucks says:

    godot10:
    The mistake last summer was the premature departure of Eberle and Pouliot, two established veterans, a year before the salary cap forced their departure.And choosing Kassian over the better player in Pitlick, at twice the price.

    The cover for the young players was already here.Chiarelli and McLellan decided to get rid of it because McLellan didn’t like the two players.

    Is it because McLellan didn’t ‘like’ the players or because he simply couldn’t get the best out of them? I suspect it’s more of the latter, and if anyone didn’t like Pouliot, it was more likely Chiarelli who traded the player once before when he was a Bruin.

    The working relationship btw the two, which we’re really not privy to, is hugely pertinent to the topic of who owns the bulk of the blame for the current situation.

    We blame Chiarelli for trading Eberle for cents on the dollar whilst MacLellan controls deployment of the player and contributed directly to his poor season as a result. If TMac is saying to Chiarelli, he did diddly in the playoffs and I like Leon better at 1RW next season, then doesn’t MacLellan own some accountability in the decision to move on from the player at a time his value is at its absolute lowest? Now, Chiarelli could dig in his heels and say I’m not trading Jordan now cos his market value is low, but what does that then say about his willingness to give the HC the players he wants/needs?

    Similarly with Pouliot, MacLellan increasingly wouldn’t play him last season because of the dumb penalties he kept taking at crucial times. If Chiarelli sees this, he can’t force MacLellan to find a way to better deploy him and improve his value. The GM is supposed to stay out of game roster decisions. He deals the cards. He doesn’t tell TMac how to play the hand.

    That’s why assigning specific blame/accountability is ultimately such a fool’s game. We’re not in the room. For all we know, MacLellan could’ve said, I can ice a competitive team without an elite left winger (Hall), but we are 100% guaranteed out of the playoffs again without a legit top pairing D to play the toughs.

    Finally, when are we going to stop referring to it as Hall for Larrson when it was Hall for Larsson and Lucic? It’s beyond obtuse to suggest that Chiarelli did nothing to consider his W depth chart when that transation was being planned. Relative merits of the players aside, Chia brought in two legit NHLers to an organization with roster holes throughout the lineup for one player out. That has to be fairly acknowledged.

  174. frjohnk says:

    If we get rid of our UFA’s and Sleppy, we gonna need some players coming back, not just picks.

    I guess Malone, Rattie, Pak could come up but there is no much down in the AHL to bring up.

  175. frjohnk says:

    Bag of Pucks: Finally, when are we going to stop referring to it as Hall for Larrson when it was Hall for Larsson and Lucic?

    Dont forget to put Klinkhammer in the Hall side of the deal.

    Never forget the Olympian

  176. Bag of Pucks says:

    LT, I wrote what I thought was a pretty on point post this morning and the site said it had been flagged as spam? Are you seeing that on your end?

  177. OriginalPouzar says:

    JD_Wry: And 3 years of term, no? For a player who had such a history of injury, that had Chia signed Pitlick to that contract, everyone would have been boiling tar and sharpening pitchforks.

    Pitlick gave an interview when Dallas came to town and said he was just hoping for a one-way contract from a team and couldn’t believe when DAL not only offered a one-way deal but also a 3-year term. He said he had no choice but to jump on it.

    With the entire cap hit being able to be buried the contract is somewhat low risk (except for taking up a spot on the 50) but a three year contract for a guy that struggled to play over 30 games a year(and often failed) was off the charts. It may work out for Dallas but it was a huge surprise offer that most teams would not have made.

  178. StixMalone says:

    frjohnk: Dont forget to put Klinkhammer in the Hall side of the deal.

    Never forget the Olympian

    Klinkhammer now there’s a memory that was repressed!….

  179. OriginalPouzar says:

    Having said that, why do the Oilers even bother with Russians? They get half the opportunity.

    Their most recently drafted Russian was signed very shortly after the draft, well ahead of when someone with his draft pedigree normally gets signed. Seems they have big plans for Samorukov – who is having a glorious stretch right now.

  180. OriginalPouzar says:

    sliderule:
    I would like the oilers to give Bear and Jones at least two or three games as a trial run

    The season is lost and I don’t think that they are that much a step down from Davidson or Benning.

    From what I saw last year and in exhibition games this yearBear will do as well as any oiler D on the power play.

    He has vision and has ways to get his quality shot thru the blockers.

    I disagree completely.

    Bear had a nice start to the season being paired with the perfect partner, Dillon Simpson but then missed 15 games with a concussion. He is just now starting to find his game again.

    Jones has had a tough start to his pro career and is just now starting to settle in.

    Both these d-men are fine prospects that I believe should be kept in the AHL to allow them the privilege of continued development in the appropriate league. There are no accounts that either is close to NHL ready and neither are even can’t miss NHL prospects.

    As it stands now, I would think both spend pretty much the entire 18/19 season in the AHL – maybe a cup of coffee next year but only decaf this year.

  181. godot10 says:

    Bag of Pucks:
    Similarly with Pouliot, MacLellan increasingly wouldn’t play him last season because of the dumb penalties he kept taking at crucial times. If Chiarelli sees this, he can’t force MacLellan to find a way to better deploy him and improve his value. The GM is supposed to stay out of game roster decisions. He deals the cards. He doesn’t tell TMac how to play the hand.

    That’s why assigning specific blame/accountability is ultimately such a fool’s game. We’re not in the room. For all we know, MacLellan could’ve said, I can ice a competitive team without an elite left winger (Hall), but we are 100% guaranteed out of the playoffs again without a legit top pairing D to play the toughs.

    Lucic, Maroon, and Kassian almost always have had worse penalty differentials than Pouliot’s. Pouliot takes dumb penalties, but he at least draws almost as many penalties.

    The coach is holding different players to different standards.

  182. OriginalPouzar says:

    Maroon’s PIM differential this year is perverse.

  183. Wilde says:

    OriginalPouzar:
    Maroon’s PIM differential this year is perverse.

    Number one thing hurting his value right now.

  184. Professor Q says:

    Well, my friends, I might not be as active (not that I already am) in the next week or so.

    The pneumonia didn’t react to the antibiotics I was taking (ended about a week ago) and now it has come back with a vengeance. The doctor said if this new bout doesn’t work, then she has no idea what the next step will be. Likely ICU hospitalization. Sigh. My luck continues.

    Go Oilers, be respectful of each other, and don’t go *too* crazy with the Doom and Gloom predictions.

  185. GMB3 says:

    Kinger_Oil.redux,

    How much of your day do you spend thinking up hypothetical reasons to defend Chiarelli and “big time coaching” Todd Mclellan? We will never “know” what Chiarelli was “thinking”.

    The blind defence of our “management” and coaching is hilarious. Did you just say signing Jagr and Franson would have been “all in” in september?

    Can you honestly look at Peter Chiarelli’s track record without thinking maybe this guy doesn’t have the chops for the job in 2018 and on? Or are you so sure this is part of his “master plan”. This isn’t John Coopers 16/17 Lightning.

    This is as bad as Cassandra except the pendulum is swinging the other direction.

  186. GMB3 says:

    Professor Q:
    Well, my friends, I might not be as active (not that I already am) in the next week or so.

    The pneumonia didn’t react to the antibiotics I was taking (ended about a week ago) and now it has come back with a vengeance. The doctor said if this new bout doesn’t work, then she has no idea what the next step will be. Likely ICU hospitalization. Sigh. My luck continues.

    Go Oilers, be respectful of each other, and don’t go *too* crazy with the Doom and Gloom predictions.

    Oh no. I tangled with Pneumonia as a teen, and it was a terrible experience. All the best Mr. Q.

  187. OriginalPouzar says:

    Professor Q:
    Well, my friends, I might not be as active (not that I already am) in the next week or so.

    The pneumonia didn’t react to the antibiotics I was taking (ended about a week ago) and now it has come back with a vengeance. The doctor said if this new bout doesn’t work, then she has no idea what the next step will be. Likely ICU hospitalization. Sigh. My luck continues.

    Go Oilers, be respectful of each other, and don’t go *too* crazy with the Doom and Gloom predictions.

    Best wishes for health and happiness.

  188. CrazyCoach says:

    Professor Q: Go Oilers, be respectful of each other, and don’t go *too* crazy with the Doom and Gloom predictions.

    I won’t.

    Hope you have a speedy recovery and get back here soon!

  189. ChiliChunk says:

    Wilde: Players in the EC on ELC’s of note for this Slepyshev business:

    Curtis Valk : FLA Undrafted, 5.09 right shot, 29 in 35 AHL

    So unlike StixMalone you would prefer Valk to Falk? Of course neither are close to Faulk. But Carolina would obviously balk at such talk and just walk.

  190. Melvis says:

    Slip Kid (It’s a hard, hard world)…part trois. What was Part Deux?

    I’m going to steal a line here from one of my favourite Abstract Expressionist artists.

    ” I am a slipping glimpser.” Courtesy of Willem de Kooning. As for “freeing Sleppy glimpses”, I’m going to have to hold my water here, even though the news has me cracking a pinot. And that brings me to this tale on this off day.

    I had to front run, arrange for the secondary backline, (the mainline was otherwise engaged on the east coast side of a major tour), and otherwise glad hand my way around that backstage warren and the greenroom at NBC when Johnny was running the Tonight Show.

    Things remembered…the earlly afternoon, post lunch run through. Jeff Porcaro saunters in, David Paich, and David Hungate in tow. Ovid Stevens was on the guitar that day. Ed Shaunessy stands up behind his kit, and graciously submits the arabesque bow in Porcaro’s direction. Jeff grins his big, shit eating grin, spewing charisma all over the place. Then he rides that mofo orchestra like a 2k an hour hooker riding a player from The Player. That was really something.

    Then Susan St James walks in.

    Now I had seen her on the tube when I was a kid… in the Name of the Game, and Mcmillan and Wife, and had a bit of crush. Up close and personal, even more so. So, of course, I was game for a bit of the flirt and come on. You only live once. And she was gracious and charming.

    Then her partner walks in with the two kids in tow. Fuuuck. I didn’t know. Wiff. Strike one.

    Other than standing behind the curtain and seeing the little red light on a Fender blink off. A WTF, heart attack moment…followed by a glimpse of glitter on the floor. Tinfoil in place of a breaker. I’m going to nail Studio Instrument Rentals to the wall, unless some back stabbing tactician/techy closer to home is aiming for my job.

    Although there’s a ninety minute delay allowing for screwups before the feed goes to the east coast, it’s a live audience and Johnny hates bullshit. And I’m accountable. I manage to jam that thingy back in as the curtain opens. Phew! Foul ball.

  191. StixMalone says:

    Professor Q:
    Well, my friends, I might not be as active (not that I already am) in the next week or so.

    The pneumonia didn’t react to the antibiotics I was taking (ended about a week ago) and now it has come back with a vengeance. The doctor said if this new bout doesn’t work, then she has no idea what the next step will be. Likely ICU hospitalization. Sigh. My luck continues.

    Go Oilers, be respectful of each other, and don’t go *too* crazy with the Doom and Gloom predictions.

    Get better soon Q!

  192. StixMalone says:

    ChiliChunk: So unlike StixMalone you would prefer Valk to Falk? Of course neither are close to Faulk. But Carolina would obviously balk at such talk and just walk.

    I see what you did there lol

  193. thehop says:

    Professor Q,

    All the best with that battle sir! Pneumonia is an ugly bitch.

  194. Yeti says:

    Melvis,

    Don’t tell anyone, but I think I love you.

  195. Woodguy v2.0 says:

    Ok.

    In my last post I had included Slepy’s TOI with Caggiula in his time w/ 97, 29 and 93. Ooops.

    Changed the results big time.

    Its really hard to separate goals with 29 or 97 from goals with 29 AND 97, but I think I got it.

    Here’s the last two years of Slepy and Caggiula with 97, 29 and 93. I’m pretty sure I didn’t double count goals with both 29 & 97 on the ice, as everything added up.

    Sleppy – last 2 years
    1 goal w/ 97 in 29 minutes
    1 goal w/ 93 in 109 minutes
    2 goals w/ 29 in 108 minutes

    4 goals in 246 minutes = 0.98 G/60 a very good number, albeit in a small sample.

    Sleppy without those 3 over the last 2 years:

    1 goal with 91 in 195 minutes
    0 goals with 55 144 minutes
    0 goals with none of the above in 63 minutes

    1 goal in 402 minutes = 0.14 G/60. Putrid, albeit with not good help

    Overall 5 goals in 648 minutes = 0.46/60

    Caggiula – last 2 years
    3 goals w/ 97 in 137 minutes
    3 goals w/ 93 in 140 minutes
    1 goal w/29 in 141 minutes

    7 goals in 417 minutes = 1.01 G/60 a very good number, albeit in a small sample

    Caggiula without those 3 last 2 years
    1 goal with 55 in 214 minutes
    0 goals in 373 minutes away from all 4 main C’s

    1 goal in 587 minutes = 0.002 G/60. Almost like he wasn’t actually there

    Overall 8 goals in 1004 minutes = 0.48 G/60

    Its kinda crazy how close they are.

    I think you have to give the edge to Sleppy.

    Also,

    To give an idea of what G/60 rates look like.

    Last year 369 forwards played at least 400 minutes in the NHL.

    1.00 G/60 was a tie for 41st
    0.75 G/60 was a tie for 114th
    0.50 G/60 was a tie for 248th
    0.25 G/60 was 345th (Mark Letestu of all people)

    The median was 0.63/60

    Here is EDM’s GF/60 rates last year among forwards:
    Player G60
    TYLER PITLICK 1.61
    PATRICK MAROON 1.24
    CONNOR MCDAVID 0.96
    JORDAN EBERLE 0.74
    LEON DRAISAITL 0.66
    MATT HENDRICKS 0.63
    BENOIT POULIOT 0.62
    RYAN NUGENT-HOPKINS 0.55
    ANTON SLEPYSHEV 0.54
    MILAN LUCIC 0.53
    ZACK KASSIAN 0.48
    DRAKE CAGGIULA 0.47
    MARK LETESTU 0.25

    Here’s EDM’s GF/60 among forwards this year:
    Player G60
    JESSE PULJUJARVI 1.16
    JUJHAR KHAIRA 1.07
    PATRICK MAROON 0.88
    CONNOR MCDAVID 0.85
    RYAN NUGENT-HOPKINS 0.71
    MILAN LUCIC 0.60
    LEON DRAISAITL 0.53
    MARK LETESTU 0.49
    DRAKE CAGGIULA 0.48
    RYAN STROME 0.44
    MIKE CAMMALLERI 0.43
    ZACK KASSIAN 0.42
    ANTON SLEPYSHEV 0.29
    IIRO PAKARINEN 0.00
    JUSSI JOKINEN 0.00
    KAILER YAMAMOTO 0.00

    Also,

    Getting rid of your 1st, 4th, 6th and 7th best forwards in 5v5 GF/60 may not be advisable, but I’m not a NHL GM.

  196. JimmyV1965 says:

    Kinger_Oil.redux: – OK: last post from me for awhile: I will try to be clear as I can:

    1) I thought this team was good enough to win the Cup the year.It’s highly highly unlikely they will, I was clearly out to lunch!

    2) I agreed with the approach to develop internally, and build on awesome last year, no major moves, figure out what they had with the kids, etc, tweak at deadline when Sek is back

    3) Team sucked out of gate: all time worst sh%, terrible PK/PP, goalie brutal, flu bug, team didn’t cope well, Coach seemed stuck.But also great stats that this blog holds dear: possession, heat maps, etc

    4) Team had a great series of games where it seemed to click: imposing their will, responding after terrible games, goalie at least a bit better…That wasn’t luck IMO

    5) Was last year the team lucky, and this year is the norm, and Chia and the org are out to lunch and we are doomed.

    6) Or was last year a little above expectations, and the org knew it, and expected regression, and made the determination to have a growth year, figuring they could still win, and grow

    7) I clearly drank too much koolaide.I might be wrong, and Cassandra right, and this team is brutal, and those games were a mirage, and luck, and those possession stats are garbage (Georges says they are in terms of correlation to results), and Chia indeed is the worst GM, and we won’t have multiple Cup runs a la Chicago or L.A. or Pittsburgh.

    8) So maybe my “ephipany” is a way to solve for how bad this team is: and the Oil just are still a bad org, with the wrong coach (again) and the wrong GM (again) that thought they were good enough to win the cup this year by sitting on their hands

    9) If the org is comfortable that Chia is sh%t, and this season is a reflection of the team he built all on his own,and theyhave different stats to support this, and he was confident they had built a Cup team this year already: he’s gone (or more likely just a coup d’etat, without prejudice)

    10) So yes, I had a “narrative” that based on last year, the removal of Ebs for Strome wasn’t a game changer:the team would play .500 untill Sek came back (they almost did), and the team was starting to impose their will, and the Coach was making adjustments (save the special sits!)

    11) So because I don’t believe that Chia is a moron, and I believe the team has a plan, I’d rather believe my projections for the team were wrong.

    12) I can reconcile this by taking the tells that I chose about growth year, McL’s stuff at beginning of year about how tough it is, Chia saying last year they exceeded, etc

    13) So I remain hopeful and critical, and shocked by the actual results, and think they are a lot closer to the Cup in terms of development and progress than back to 0, and firing coach and GM (again)

    – A frustrating season for sure.

    Try not to be too discouraged. I agree with much of what you say here. The team isn’t as bad as they are now and probably not as good as they were last year. I think it’s easy to underestimate the impact brutal goaltending had on the team early in the year. And most people didn’t see that coming.

    The one thing I think almost everyone can agree on when it comes to Chia is that he had a vision of what this team should look like. And that’s a country mile ahead of where we used to be with previous GMs.

    You might not like his vision, but at least he had one. I don’t have an issue with that vision at all. When this team is on, it can play fast and be extremely physical. That to me is a recipe for playoff success. I have also been very happy with his drafting, which again is miles ahead of the previous regime.

    Unfortunately, he may have undone a lot of this by bleeding assets. His trades have been absolutely brutal and he overpays the wrong players. In an ideal world, I think he should set the vision and have someone else execute it.

    We still have an impressive core and the future will be brighter. GO OIL!!!

  197. HT Joe says:

    russ99: Addition by subtraction.
    I’ll have to find the tweet by one of the keyed in MSM, but it mentioned how both players were relied on by McLellan at the beginning of last season to show leadership for the young players, and both refused, and tried to keep playing their way. When you put a “A” on your sweater, selfishness shouldn’t be your top goal.
    Also, it was mentioned that Pouliot was offered around the league a few times last season with no takers.
    When you have a young impressionable core, keeping players who aren’t with the program for a few goals is a bad idea.
    And yes we should have signed someone to replace some of those goal. LOL

    If Pouliot and Eberle were damaging young players by not aligning with the program, why is the team failing this year when both are gone, but flourished last year when both were hear? I know that Talbot and injuries are hurting the team, but the entire team seems deflated and broken.

    I still find it hard to believe anything other than there’s a benefit to having an extra set of wingers to capably play with McDavid, even if said wingers act like donkeys outside of game time.

  198. Bag of Pucks says:

    godot10: Lucic, Maroon, and Kassian almost always have had worse penalty differentials than Pouliot’s.Pouliot takes dumb penalties, but he at least draws almost as many penalties.

    The coach is holding different players to different standards.

    This could undoubtedly be true and if it is, it’s another example of Chiarelli being shackled by the actions of his HC.

    In regards to the hand that was dealt by the GM, we were almost unanimously positive about its potential coming off last season’s returns. Sure there was some concerns and those vocal about the deficiencies but most people were predicting a bubble team at worst.

    But the hand has been played so badly this season by MacLellan, it has everyone saying. ‘well yeah, that four-of-a-kind looked good going in but damn it, Chiarelli should’ve planned for that straight flush that beat us on the river!’

    Eberle out for Strome in, and Nurse having to play Sekera’s minutes should not have been sufficoently impactful to take this team from playoff contender to cellar dweller. That’s not enough roster downgrade. The fact that it has, and SO many of the core players have regressed performance wise, lies directly at the feet of this coaching staff imo.

    In this, you and I are in direct alignment now, no?

  199. Scungilli Slushy says:

    StixMalone:
    What is he going to get for him? All the GM’s know he’s available now. Is this how we do trades now just send out a generic e-mail????

    They should have a Facebook group

  200. Snowman says:

    Professor Q,

    Best wishes for a speedy recovery Professor!

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