Betcha By Golly Wow

The Edmonton Oilers organization is having a long look at the state of the franchise this week, looking for answers and a path to Stanley. Talent bled is talent lost forever, with the question now all about getting quality back on the roster by September. This club is going to get a high draft pick, there will be some cap room on July 1, and there’s still a chance we see some significant trades before the end of this season. Don’t go too far from your favorite app, we could see some action soon.

THE ATHLETIC!

Great offer! Includes a free 7-day trial so you can try The Athletic on for size free and see if they enjoy the in-depth, ad-free coverage on the site. If you don’t feel it’s worth the $4.49/month, cancel anytime during trial before getting charged. Offer is here.

50-MAN LIST, JANUARY 17 2018

  • Edmonton has a cluster of unrestricted and an entire flock of restricted free agents. We don’t know how this is going to turn out (if there’s a new GM be prepared for massive movements) but we might see this kind of depth chart before the draft and free agency.
  • There are 19 rfa’s, and only three are locks to return. They are Darnell Nurse, Matt Benning, Drake Caggiula.
  • There are five unrestricted players, none a lock to return. Teams tend to move on from a failed season.
  • There is so little bubbling up from the minors or junior the mind boggles. Kailer Yamamoto is the only name I can list among the outsiders who will have a good chance to make the NHL team this fall. One year from now, we might see Ethan Bear, Caleb Jones, Ryan Mantha, Tyler Benson pushing. Right now, it’s tumbleweeds tumbling through town at high noon.
  • If I’m PC, trading for useful forward prospects in their entry-level deals is a strong option, maybe more useful than draft picks at this time. A player like Jayce Hawryluk would add to the prospect roster and give the team a more attractive recall option.

BARE BONES 50

  • I think a major cull is likely, we’ll see about the defense but most of the forward group that is in free agency can safely be thrown overboard.
  • The additions to the pro roster of Jones, Bear and Mantha give the defense some balance, something we haven’t seen in some time. These young men are pushing up, and names like Lagesson and Samorukov should become more prominent in the days to come.
  • One name not on this list who may be signed is Stuart Skinner. The young man is ripping it up in Swift Current (3gp, .961) but doesn’t have to be signed until this time next season. The organization likes him a lot, but it’ll be very crowded if he signs.

MIKE LIUT IS DIRT MEAN!

  • Elliotte Friedman: “I do think Edmonton kind of thought at the time they were getting Draisaitl for 7.5 instead of 8.5. There are rumors that there was something close at the draft for 7.5 and it just didn’t happen and they had to go to the higher number.” Source

I have read this quote a few times and my guess is the Oilers were bidding against themselves for the final stretch. We’ll never know, seems clear Mike Liut (Leon’s agent) was able to convince Peter Chiarelli of an impending offer sheet. Since they are extremely rare, I’ll assume Liut was doing something as an agent 80s goalies couldn’t do as players—beat the Oilers and do real harm. Leon Draisaitl is a wonderful player, but he is no longer a value contract. That fact will have sustain through the entire Connor McDavid era in Edmonton. Was this a negotiation or a stickup?

YAMAMOTO RISING

Kailer Yamamoto is coming on now, playing well and posting crooked numbers offensively. He was pedestrian through much of the World Juniors but came alive late, with that trend continuing since his return. His splits are brighter since a 3gp, 2-4-6 boxcar run upon return to his team.

  • First 10 games: 1-8-9
  • Last 6 games: 3-6-9
  • Total: 16gp, 4-14-18

LOWDOWN WITH LOWETIDE

A busy morning, lots of hockey talk beginning at 10 this morning, TSN1260. Scheduled to appear:

  • Josh Lewenberg, TSN. Raptors are having a helluva year, using depth and balance.
  • Bruce McCurdy, Cult of Hockey. Will youth be served? And what about those Martians?
  • Rob Vollman, NHL.com and ESPN. What if the Oilers traded Cam Talbot? Ryan Strome? Matt Benning? Putting value on some outside-the-box trade options. Plus Auston Matthews and Jack Johnson.
  • Frank Seravalli, TSN. Trade list is heating up, adding names five at a time.

10-1260 text, @Lowetide on twitter. See you on the radio!

 

written by

The author didn‘t add any Information to his profile yet.
Related Posts

324 Responses to "Betcha By Golly Wow"

« Older Comments
  1. LMHF#1 says:

    VOR,

    Yeah, not getting the Crouse fascination VOR. This guy’s been one of the most overrated prospects out there for years now. They dodged a bullet when they got bumped up in the draft and couldn’t take him in 2015. Why go get him now?

    That’s like trading for a wildly overrated former 4th overall pick to fill out your blueline. Who the heck would do that?

  2. Sighduck says:

    Cassandra: There are other examples.Tarasenko, Johansen, Kuznetsov all signed for significantly less than Draisatl considering their contract status and performance.

    In any case, it doesn’t matter, because barring a second half for the ages, Marner and Nylander aren’t getting within 2 or 3 million of Draisatl money.

    Yeah, having a closer look at the stats Nylander and Marner are nowhere near the other players cited. I just look at the other contracts signed recently and believe that drai fits in with that cluster. Look at the season Johanson is having for the preds.

    No doubt Drai was signed to a risky deal, I just think it is a bit early for torches and pitchforks when the contract would have been signed under the assumption the player would grow and not regress.

    We are only in year one but I think everyone can agree as LT wrote that Drai will most likely not be a value contract.

  3. Georges says:

    Mike,

    Most people say the same thing the same way. Most are slow to reflect. And change.

    You followed up one of the worst comments I’ve read on here with one of the best.

    (Thank you Bendelson for drawing my attention to it.)

  4. OriginalPouzar says:

    Wow – Matheson is reporting that the Young Stars tournament on Penticton may not happen this year.

    Apparently many scouts were disappointment in the caliber last year.

  5. GMB3 says:

    JimmyV1965: Just because the GM chose to overpay the player doesn’t diminish who this player is.

    It does diminish his value to the team though.

    How many cups did Pittsburgh win with Crosby and Malkin eating up a huge portion of the cup? Malkin is a significantly better player than Drasaitl as well. Chiarelli got hosed. What else is new.

    And you state that no NHL team who has a clue about developing their prospects would have Yamma on the roster next year? Well JP and Drai were both on the roster and excelling in their draft +2. Did the organization fuck them up too? Don’t most impact players crack the NHL as 20 year olds

  6. Jethro Tull says:

    OriginalPouzar:
    Wow – Matheson is reporting that the Young Stars tournament on Penticton may not happen this year.

    Apparently many scouts were disappointment in the caliber last year.

    Well, sorry Connor can’t go every year, lol, but they shouldn’t worry, the Oilers and the ‘Nucks should have some pretty high picks in there this year! (And who doesn’t wan’t to go golfing in the Okanagan?)

  7. leadfarmer says:

    OriginalPouzar:
    Wow – Matheson is reporting that the Young Stars tournament on Penticton may not happen this year.

    Apparently many scouts were disappointment in the caliber last year.

    That’s the kind of confidence boost these kids need

  8. OriginalPouzar says:

    thehop:
    OriginalPouzar,

    Sure….

    Based on past posts regarding Slepy I don’t think my inferring was out of touch knowing what I know about the player you think Slepyshev is.

    And I think it’s unlikely Pakarinen gets called up and doesn’t play. But who knows what The coach is thinking. I’ve got no fucking clue.

    I believe my posts on Slepy are a bit misunderstood.

    I don’t dislike the player, I haven’t given up on the player, I think the player should be playing (generally – in particular over Drake, generally), I simply think his “accomplishments” have been over-stated in this community and, while he hasn’t done any less than players such as Drake, he also hasn’t taken any of his opportunities and run with them, he hasn’t forced the coaching staff to keep him in the lineup. He makes some good plays and has some good games but, to my eye, hasn’t shown any consistency and I believe he belongs in a category where he’s fighting for a lineup spot.

    I have never once in my life ever expressed that Pakarinan should play over Slep.

  9. GMB3 says:

    Jethro Tull: That makes absolutely no sense what so ever.Hometown discount?That’s not even a thing.Who is the last player to sign for less than market value for some dreamed up narrative of playing for his hometown?Ryan Smyth, lol.Oops, no they argued over $100,000.AndDrai is from Cologne.

    Also, the rest of the NHLPA would be pissed – you have the chance to set the standard for higher pay scale for performance, and you left money on the table? and I believe that would be collusion.

    The more Drai gets paid, the more Mike gets paid.

    Vancouver would be overvaluing Drai even more.

    If that hypothetically happens, you say “then get $9.5M for him then.Good day to you, sir!”

    We would get what 3 first rounders for him? Vancouver would still be shitty so we would probably be getting some pretty nice draft choices

  10. NYC-Back-to-Tokyo Oil (Gentleman Backpacker) says:

    ‘The best 4th line in the NHL?’ who are we kidding?

    Barkov is a better all-around player than Draisaitl. He is approaching perennial Selke candidate calibre now. Drai may have more playmaking talent but Barkov has him beat without the puck quite handily. Drai is okay defensively when he comes all the way low moving his feet, but much of the time he is coming back looking to be fed the puck to move it the other way, rather than hound the opposition and take it off them.

    As for the comparables for the contract, Tarasenko’s seemed right. Tank scored more. Drai spent a lot of time as 1RW. We were leery of paying him for 1RW on McDavid’s wing vs running as 2C for an entire year and proving what he could do every night. So you have Tank the better offensive player but offset by Drai’s ability to play C so you add a little. But then substitute 4 RFA years (Tank) with 5 for Drai and that should have been about right.

    Overpaying Drai by 750k-1m hurts and makes the GM look dumb, but that is exacerbated by shedding salary and doing nothing with it (Eberle for Strome and cap space never used), as well as spending it overpaying your utility Dman on a 4 year deal. Lucic was the prior summer so not even going to go there as that horse has been flogged quite enough.

    Paying your complementary players too much was what Chia did in Boston. Chris Kelly, etc, and he is doing it here again. He hasn’t learned his lessons and that is the disappointing part. You want to see growth.

    As W would say, ‘Is our children learning?’

  11. JD_Wry says:

    NYC-Back-to-Tokyo Oil (Gentleman Backpacker),

    There’s an old saying in Boston… Well I think it’s in Boston… I know it’s in Edmonton but it’s probably in Boston too…

  12. VOR says:

    Lawson Crouse is part of four different, integrated strategies.

    I want to start off, however, by encouraging those of you who cling to the mythology that 3rd and 4th line players can be picked up every year in free agency to show me examples of Stanley Cup winning teams filled with nothing but mercenaries on their third and fourth lines. Nearly every Stanley Cup winning team in history had a mixture, drafted some, traded for some, and in the modern era signed some as free agents. The majority however in the 1979- era are actually home grown or arrive by trade. Then try to get over your belief that third and fourth line players are interchangeable pieces, nothing more than cannon fodder.

    I said, you may recall, that I wanted horses for courses . I don’t have the cash to sign the modern equivalent of Tomas Holmstrom or Bob Gainey. So I went looking for a kid who plays outstanding defence and likes to crowd the crease, enter Lawson Crouse. He is also a tremendous forecheckers. He arrives early (has outstanding boots) and in a truly horrible mood. If you are going to grind, you need grinders. Crouse in his prime will be Wayne Simmonds.

    The second strategy is that I am trying to build a true puck possession team. Once my Oilers have the puck you aren’t getting it back. This is the book on Puljujarvi and Foegele and yes, Crouse.

    The third strategy has to do with the next two drafts. As GM I plan on an entirely new way of compensating scouts.

    I am going to make every scouts picks and scouting reports public after the draft. Fans will get to vote on which scout they think did the best job. The winner gets $250,000, second $100,000, and third $50,000. This should insure scouts are trying to figure out what the fans want to hear at the draft.

    Just to make it more interesting, after 5 years the scout with the best record in 2018 on a bundle of objective tests (goals, games, major awards, Cullen scale) gets a $1,000,000 bonus. There will also be team awards/rewards for outperforming league average in real world outcomes.

    This $1,000,000 reward/prize is also going to be open to the public. Needless to say any player you pick in your mock draft has to be available when the Oilers pick or your selection in that round doesn’t count.

    Using this system I believe I will get much better draft outcomes, particularly in the late rounds than I did in the past.

    This means later round picks have more value to me than they do to other teams.

    Now add to that that those of you who have read my draft posts know I think there is good evidence that every lockout increases the chances of picking winners in the later rounds of the draft.

    So I am giving my scouts tons of opportunities in 2018 and 2019 and incentivizing them to go out and try to hit home runs. The two fourth rounders and two fifth rounders are worth as much as a probable 15th OV in 2019. Lawson Crouse is the throw in.

    Strategy 4 is I am looking for value. Players who are and will be cheap for years to come but who outplay. In other words puck monsters with poor boxcars. Crouse is the poster boy.

  13. NYC-Back-to-Tokyo Oil (Gentleman Backpacker) says:

    JD_Wry,

    Which one is that? Does it involve chow-dah?

  14. deardylan says:

    CAN YOU IMAGINE WHAT WE WOULD BE WRITING IF WE WERE IN TAMPA BAYS PLACE?

    Can you imagine what it is like if your team was sitting at 1st place going into all star break with +49 differential?

    Even though their posts are not so active reading Tampa Bay Forums and comments it seems they have alot of GREAT problems to mull over like this one…

    https://www.rawcharge.com/2017/10/10/16443826/mikhail-sergachev-tampa-bay-lightning-demote-or-not-steve-yzerman-jon-cooper

    From LT 2016 Draft Here Comes The Sun When Tampa was in the Tankathon:
    #6 “LD Mikhail Sergachev, Windsor Spitfires (OHL): NHLE: 22. I believe he is best D. Big, strong, skilled.”

    2018 From Roto:

    Mikhail Sergachev picked up an assist in a 2-0 win over the Toronto Maple Leafs.

    Sergachev’s assist brings his point tally up to 26 in 39 games this season. The deal GM Steve Yzerman made in the summer to bring in the Russian blueliner is looking better and better and it’s tough to argue that any team in the NHL has a better roster than the Lightning.

    Mikhail Sergachev is now slated to see power-play time on the top unit with Victor Hedman out of the lineup.

  15. NYC-Back-to-Tokyo Oil (Gentleman Backpacker) says:

    VOR,

    The Coyotes got Crouse for a 2nd and 3rd. What do you want to pay for him?

  16. Sighduck says:

    NYC-Back-to-Tokyo Oil (Gentleman Backpacker):
    ‘The best 4th line in the NHL?’ who are we kidding?

    Barkov is a better all-around player than Draisaitl. He is approaching perennial Selke candidate calibre now. Drai may have more playmaking talent but Barkov has him beat without the puck quite handily. Drai is okay defensively when he comes all the way low moving his feet, but much of the time he is coming back looking to be fed the puck to move it the other way, rather than hound the opposition and take it off them.

    As for the comparables for the contract, Tarasenko’s seemed right. Tank scored more. Drai spent a lot of time as 1RW. We were leery of paying him for 1RW on McDavid’s wing vs running as 2C for an entire year and proving what he could do every night. So you have Tank the better offensive player but offset by Drai’s ability to play C so you add a little. But then substitute 4 RFA years (Tank) with 5 for Drai and that should have been about right.

    Overpaying Drai by 750k-1m hurts and makes the GM look dumb, but that is exacerbated by shedding salary and doing nothing with it (Eberle for Strome and cap space never used), as well as spending it overpaying your utility Dman on a 4 year deal. Lucic was the prior summer so not even going to go there as that horse has been flogged quite enough.

    Paying your complementary players too much was what Chia did in Boston. Chris Kelly, etc, and he is doing it here again. He hasn’t learned his lessons and that is the disappointing part. You want to see growth.

    As W would say, ‘Is our children learning?’

    This sums it up perfectly, is Drai slightly overpaid? Probably, but that is just fine assuming you find savings elsewhere in your lineup. The irony with Chia describing this season as ‘death by a thousand cuts’ is that this is exaclty what is happening with the roster.

    Drai, Lucic, Kassian, Russell, even Strome isn’t value for what he is paid…

    Each slight overpayment seems trivial until you have to trade something of value to cover these contracts. I still cheer like hell for Chia and can even kind of see what he is trying to accomplish but at some point you have to call a spade a spade.

  17. NYC-Back-to-Tokyo Oil (Gentleman Backpacker) says:

    deardylan,

    Because they traded with a GM who is worse at trades than Chiarelli. Subban for the older Weber, their most valuable young asset in Sergachev traded without addressing their glaring need at C. Instead they gave up their best trade chip for a winger and tried to make this winger a C at the NHL level.

    Predictably this experiment failed.

    The Oilers should ship Bergevin Strome and anyone French-sounding for Galchenyuk

  18. Sighduck says:

    deardylan,

    Would be interesting to see the opinion of a poster like DSF if we were.

  19. NYC-Back-to-Tokyo Oil (Gentleman Backpacker) says:

    JD_Wry:
    NYC-Back-to-Tokyo Oil (Gentleman Backpacker),

    Fool me once…

    Oh that one. Haha. I forgot the preamble bit about Tennessee was i? That’s why I slept through that one. Shame on me. Can’t get fooled again.

  20. OriginalPouzar says:

    Overpaying Drai by 750k-1m hurts and makes the GM look dumb, but that is exacerbated by shedding salary and doing nothing with it (Eberle for Strome and cap space never used), as well as spending it overpaying your utility Dman on a 4 year deal. Lucic was the prior summer so not even going to go there as that horse has been flogged quite enough.

    The cap space is spent – its spend for next year and the next few years. Its spent next year lets say via the McDavid contract.

    The Eberle/Strome trade was not just about cap space in 2017/18 but beyond.

    We all know when have “less than zero” cap space for next year – imagine if Eberle’s contract was still on the books for next year?

    I’m not saying it was a good trade or even needed to happen but the verbal about the “unspent cap space” is short sighted and doesn’t look beyond this year. Management was essentially limited to spending that cap space by signing a player to a one-year contract or acquiring a one-year contract. Options were must more limited.

  21. Thinker says:

    OriginalPouzar: The cap space is spent – its spend for next year and the next few years.Its spent next year lets say via the McDavid contract.

    The Eberle/Strome trade was not just about cap space in 2017/18 but beyond.

    We all know when have “less than zero” cap space for next year – imagine if Eberle’s contract was still on the books for next year?

    I’m not saying it was a good trade or even needed to happen but the verbal about the “unspent cap space” is short sighted and doesn’t look beyond this year. Management was essentially limited to spending that cap space by signing a player to a one-year contract or acquiring a one-year contract.Options were must more limited.

    Do you or do you not think Eberle’s cap hit is tradeable this year? Do you think they get less than Strome? That’s why people point to the cap space this year, which went unused.

  22. leadfarmer says:

    VOR,

    It’s one thing to trade for a 3rd or 4th line player, it’s another to severely overpay for one. Good teams need a steady stream of young players on ELC to be competitive. Your method guts that notion. If you are getting poorer value in the first round than a potential third rounder and on top of that you are adding a serviceable 3rd liner you need to fire your scouting staff. There is nothing that guarantees that next years first rounder is not in the lottery and there is no guarantee that Crouse will even be ready before that pick.

  23. Scungilli Slushy says:

    VOR: Jethro, my plan follows. It is presented in multiple parts. Part 1 is what I would do in the near term: here to the end of the season including the trade deadline. The second part covers free agency. The final part looks beyond this year.

    Everything is based on a vision I have of a different sort of hockey team. My Oilers would have horses for courses. You want to goon it up we will leave you bleeding on the ice, if you want to grind we will pulverize you into dust. Want to run and gun we will routinely put up double digits in goals. Want to clog up the center of the ice we will blast through gaps you didn’t even know existed.

    Not only are we big and mean we are ungodly fast and play even faster. Yes we lead the NHL in mistakes. We also lead it in goals scored. We play up tempo high intensity hockey.

    I have already talked about my first two steps in this process.

    Trade 1. Patrick Maroon and the Oilers 2nd in 2019 for Warren Foegele and Roland McKeown.

    NYCoil pointed out he didn’t think Carolina would do this trade. I think they would because Carolina’s management has made it clear they think they are close but need veteran leadership, more goal scoring and a guy who is a bit over the edge. Preferably with experience in the playoffs. And they want him/them cheap (low dollar). Maroon fits the bill.

    Think of this as Maroon for Foegele who is ripping up the AHL but is blocked in Carolina and doesn’t have draft pedigree on his side. Then the 2019 second is for McKeown, a RD prospect who is NHL ready..

    My second trade would be Ryan Strome and the first in 2019 to Phoenix for Lawson Crouse.

    For those of you who don’t know Foegele and McKeown are great skaters. Crouse is a dominating physical presence in the AHL,

    Now at this point everyone probably thinks I am crazy but in both trades I am asking for throw ins in trade one I want Carolina’s 7th round pick in 2018 nd 7th in 2019. In the Crouse trade I want a 4th and a 5th in each of the next 2 drafts.

    Then at the deadline I am moving Mark Letestu for a fourth in 2018 and Cammy and Montoya for a 7th and a 5th in 2019.

    More to follow.

    Strome has more points in the NHL (and is an NHL player) than Crowse has in the AHL and can play centre. Adding a first is not a good trade and is the type of deal that got the Oilers where they are.

    ~ .5 PPG is not elite scoring in the AHL and his draft year numbers weren’t great although he got goals. Straight up sure.

  24. Bling says:

    Talk of Drai being overpaid is completely overblown IMO.

    Drai is taking more shots this year (103 in 42 games compared with 172 in 82 games last year), but his shooting percentage is down to 10.7%. Give him a 15% shooting percentage (last year he was at 16.9%, the year before 14.3%), and he has 15 goals instead of 11, and 40 points in 42 games.

    This is with basically zero powerplay production, btw, and playing with substandard wingers.

    That is extremely impressive.

  25. Bling says:

    Really important for the Oilers braintrust not to panic.

    Here’s why:

    SCF% (7th in NHL)
    FF% (2nd in NHL)
    CF% (6th in NHL)

    Fix the special teams, fix the goaltending, improve the penalty differential (Maroon and Lucic are both taking too many penalties and not drawing enough).

    This is a very, very good team.

    The biggest test for Chia this off-season is to not do anything crazy. Weather the storm, make a few incremental upgrades, and then try again.

  26. VOR says:

    W

    leadfarmer:
    VOR,

    It’s one thing to trade for a 3rd or 4th line player, it’s another to severely overpay for one.Good teams need a steady stream of young players on ELC to be competitive.Your method guts that notion.If you are getting poorer value in the first round than a potential third rounder and on top of that you are adding a serviceable 3rd liner you need to fire your scouting staff.There is nothing that guarantees that next years first rounder is not in the lottery and there is no guarantee that Crouse will even be ready before that pick.

    Life has no guarantees. The math says Ryan Strome is approaching the mid point of his career. So I traded 350 games of a 6 (at best) on the Cullen scale who I was not going to sign in any case and a first rounder in 2019 . We can’t know what that pick will be so I have said it will be a 16th OV. Michael Schucker’s has shown on average that pick will play around 413 games. And that 413 games on average will be average 5-6 play on the Cullen Scale.

    Schucker’s also says my two fourths and two fifths should produce 320 games of average play. If I am right and my system for incentivizing scouts and involving the public improves outcomes for those picks and the lockout happens the chances are good the fourths and fifths cover the full cost of the trade and give the Oilers a better chance of getting an impact player than the single first did. Lawson Crouse then isn’t an overpay. He is a throw in.

    This is what you all claim you want, innovative thinking restocking the prospect pool. I end up with more players on ELCs at the end than the start. I have traded one and gotten three back and also acquired six draft picks and given up 2.

  27. Scungilli Slushy says:

    NYC-Back-to-Tokyo Oil (Gentleman Backpacker):
    ‘The best 4th line in the NHL?’ who are we kidding?

    Barkov is a better all-around player than Draisaitl. He is approaching perennial Selke candidate calibre now. Drai may have more playmaking talent but Barkov has him beat without the puck quite handily. Drai is okay defensively when he comes all the way low moving his feet, but much of the time he is coming back looking to be fed the puck to move it the other way, rather than hound the opposition and take it off them.

    As for the comparables for the contract, Tarasenko’s seemed right. Tank scored more. Drai spent a lot of time as 1RW. We were leery of paying him for 1RW on McDavid’s wing vs running as 2C for an entire year and proving what he could do every night. So you have Tank the better offensive player but offset by Drai’s ability to play C so you add a little. But then substitute 4 RFA years (Tank) with 5 for Drai and that should have been about right.

    Overpaying Drai by 750k-1m hurts and makes the GM look dumb, but that is exacerbated by shedding salary and doing nothing with it (Eberle for Strome and cap space never used), as well as spending it overpaying your utility Dman on a 4 year deal. Lucic was the prior summer so not even going to go there as that horse has been flogged quite enough.

    Paying your complementary players too much was what Chia did in Boston. Chris Kelly, etc, and he is doing it here again. He hasn’t learned his lessons and that is the disappointing part. You want to see growth.

    As W would say, ‘Is our children learning?’

    Yes PCs lack of development is saddening and maddening.

    Hall and EBERLE were traded because culture IMO. EBERLE is a nice guy so he got a year more to prove but LT nailed it when he mentioned EBERLE avoided a check in the playoffs and lost the puck and he thought ‘he’s gone’, and generally played poorly when it counted most.

    I’ve mentioned that I had the same thought when Hall in his post season interview referred to the ‘stink of the season ‘ and his disappointment. Too much candor even if true. Too whiny.

    Watch the Canadiens trade Patches and then immediately feel they lack a veteran scoring LW and goals.

    I’m fine with teams not liking playing styles but at least be patient and smart about it. Trading isn’t bad, getting punked in them repeatedly is.

  28. Scungilli Slushy says:

    GMB3: We would get what 3 first rounders for him? Vancouver would still be shitty so we would probably be getting some pretty nice draft choices

    3 well placed first rounders would be far more valuable than any player but Connor. Assuming you don’t draft like an asshat.

  29. VOR says:

    Scungilli Slushy: Strome has more points in the NHL (and is an NHL player) than Crowse has in the AHL and can play centre. Adding a first is not a good trade and is the type of deal that got the Oilers where they are.

    ~ .5 PPG is not elite scoring in the AHL and his draft year numbers weren’t great although he got goals. Straight up sure.

    I can see how people might be struggling with Lawson Crouse. But the way I see this deal I am trading a player I have no intention of signing for someone younger and cheaper that better fits the game I want to play. Then I am trading a first rounder for what most of you are pre-conditioned to think is a handful of magical beans. But I am changing the very paradigm of drafting. The old rules don’t apply, nor do old draft values.

    This is what good CEOs do. They create value where others didn’t believe it existed. I am bringing that to my job as GM. I trust my math, I trust my scouting, and I am going all in.

    I haven’t even gotten to my free agents signings, off season trades, and changes to the development system and all ready Oilers fans hate me and think I am an idiot. LOL.

  30. leadfarmer says:

    VOR,

    Yeah your trading lets say 16OV plus Strome, who you may be able to get a 3rd round pick for a guy who is probably worth a 2nd rounder at this point and a few throw ins is a horrible waste of assets. Never ever trade a first rounder for a depth player. Avg who cares about average. You need to shoot for the moon with every pick and a first rounder that may be a high one is the highest probability to actually hit it

  31. leadfarmer says:

    VOR,

    This way of thinking is how we ended up with Reinhart for a magic bag of beans. First round picks are the currency of the salary cap world. Only reason to trade one is for a player that is much more likely to shoot the moon than the pick. A crash and bang third liner is not that player. Just keep your currency and hold on to Kassian

  32. OriginalPouzar says:

    Thinker: Do you or do you not think Eberle’s cap hit is tradeable this year? Do you think they get less than Strome? That’s why people point to the cap space this year, which went unused.

    As I posted “I’m not saying it was a good trade or needed to happen”.

    It did happen and it was likely unnecessary, however, there is a general position that management should have spent the “unused cap space” and I don’t think many realize that management only really had the ability to sign or acquire a one-year contract.

    I’m separating the acquisition of the cap space in the Eberle trade with not spending the cap space this past year.

    The trade happened to acquire the cap space – it was a bad move – that doesn’t mean that management should make another bad move by acquiring a long-term contract that would screw us starting next year.

    The plan was clear with respect to the cap space that is available this year (as its only this year its available) – the plan was to evaluate the team over the first few months to determine where upgrades were needed for the playoff run and then be “buyers” mid-season with the cap space to upgrade.

    Unfortunately, we never got to the position where we could be buyers.

  33. Scungilli Slushy says:

    VOR:
    W

    Life has no guarantees. The math says Ryan Strome is approaching the mid point of his career. So I traded 350 games of a 6 (at best) on the Cullen scale who I was not going to sign in any case and a and a first rounder in 2019 . We can’t knowwhat that pick will be so I have said it will be a 16th OV. Michael Schucker’s has shown on average that pick will play around 413 games. And that 413 games on average will be average 5-6 play on the Cullen Scale.

    Schucker’s also says my two fourths and two fifths should produce 320 games of average play. If I am right and my system for incentivizing scouts and involving the public improves outcomes for those picks and the lockout happens the chances are good the fourths and fifths cover the full cost of the tradeand give the Oilers a better chance of getting an impactplayer than the single first did. Lawson Crouse then isn’t an overpay. He is a throw in.

    This is what you all claim you want, innovative thinking restocking the prospect pool. I end up with more players on ELCs at the end than the start. I have traded one and gotten three back and also acquired six draft picks and given up 2.

    Curious Vor, what do you think of all of the work on NHL projections for prospects? They are proven quite accurate. Where are you going to find all of these hidden draft gems everyone else missed? Repeatedly.

    The Wings were the darlings for years but apparently forgot their own model because besides getting really lucky with three players they are average at best since. They relied on UFAs heavily when they could get them cheapish. They got many years out of those 3 players and it carried them.

  34. Scungilli Slushy says:

    VOR: I can see how people might be struggling with Lawson Crouse. But the way I see this deal I am trading a player I have no intention of signing for someone younger and cheaper that better fits the game I want to play. Then I am trading a first rounder for what most of you are pre-conditioned to think is a handful of magical beans. But I am changing the very paradigm of drafting. The old rules don’t apply, nor do old draft values.

    This is what good CEOs do. They create value where others didn’t believe it existed. I am bringing that to my job as GM. I trust my math, I trust my scouting, and I am going all in.

    I haven’t even gotten to my free agents signings, off season trades, and changes to the development system and all ready Oilers fans hate me and think I am an idiot. LOL.

    I don’t think you’re an idiot, I wonder why you are discounting some established stats work as I mentioned in a previous comment.

  35. VOR says:

    Maybe I should announce some personnel decisions. I am reassigning Keith Gretzky to be responsible for pro scouting. Development now has its own AGM. The Oilers are proud to announce the appointment of Martin Gelinas. Gelinas will also work with coaching staff on development, continuing education, and communication skills.

    The Oilers are committed to optimizing player recruitment and development. We see the redeployment of Keith and the hiring of Martin as key steps in achieving this goal.

  36. Scungilli Slushy says:

    VOR: This is what good CEOs do.

    But CEOs operate in an open environment with few restrictions relatively. The NHL is hillbilly and a private market with limited participants at any level.

  37. VOR says:

    Scungilli Slushy: Curious Vor, what do you think of all of the work on NHL projections for prospects? They are proven quite accurate. Where are you going to find all of these hidden draft gems everyone else missed? Repeatedly.

    The Wings were the darlings for years but apparently forgot their own model because besides getting really lucky with three players they are average at best since. They relied on UFAs heavily when they could get them cheapish. They got many years out of those 3 players and it carried them.

    All previous projections, and I have argued this for years, is based on historic data and I just threw all that data in the trash can by changing how scouts are incentivized and how they are held accountable. We all know star players keep showing up in later rounds. Until now nobody has been consistently able to spot them.

    What I did was use some techniques from Human Performance Science to try and increase the likelihood the Oilers will find later round gems. I purposely traded away the first two picks in 2019 to give them further incentive.

    I am saying that the first team to try what I am proposing will gain a huge first mover advantage.

    Scouting, this is just a mathematical truth, is not getting better. Data smog has become a real problem. The noise in the signal is deafening. I just incentivized my scouts to figure out a way to reduce the noise, blow the smog away.

  38. VOR says:

    Scungilli Slushy: But CEOs operate in an open environment with few restrictions relatively. The NHL is hillbilly and a private market with limited participants at any level.

    As a corporate CEO in health care,food, and agriculture I can assure you there are many highly restricted markets where CEOs still figure out how to create value. Nor is the NHL hillbilly. There are some very smart GMs out there.

  39. VOR says:

    In my next few thinking about the draft posts I am going to start presenting math for improving the accuracy of player rankings in the NHL draft.

  40. OmJo says:

    NYC-Back-to-Tokyo Oil (Gentleman Backpacker),

    I think Strome would fit nicely in Montreal. Could be a trade there.

    For who? Pacioretty for Strome and Slepyshev?

  41. OriginalPouzar says:

    Lowetide:
    For the Athletic: Tweeners and Iiro Pakarinen

    https://theathletic.com/215679/2018/01/18/lowetide-tweeners-and-iiro-pakarinen/

    I’m very intrigued about who gets the 12th forward spot on Saturday night – Pak or Slep.

  42. JimmyV1965 says:

    Cassandra:
    bendelson,

    Barbashev is nowhere near enough for Maroon.

    If Maroon is traded to St. Louis the minimum back is Klim Kostin.

    If Jim Benning can do it, why can’t Chiarelli?

    Cmon. That ain’t happening. Ridiculous bar to set for the GM.

  43. jtblack says:

    Scungilli Slushy,

    16th Overall – 430 Games.
    “Schucker’s also says my two fourths and two fifths should produce 320 games of average play”

    I love the Fresh thinking BUT I dont knownwhat data is getting you that Mileage from your 4th and 5th rounders ….? Maybe 1. 2? But not an average.

  44. Oilman99 says:

    OriginalPouzar: I’m very intrigued about who gets the 12th forward spot on Saturday night – Pak or Slep.

    Has to be Pak, they need him for the PK if nothing else.

  45. deardylan says:

    Sighduck: DSF

    DSF. Read some posts by him….felt like I was bacon introduced to a red hot sizzling frying pan. Sports IQ off the charts!! Yeah would love to see his response at some point maybe in another parallel universe he is still in Lowetide.

    Or is it a possibility he still exists here?

    Do you think some of the people that left the board officially are still coming back here using pseudo-names? Or could you spot them easily.

    Do any posters here have two accounts with different names and different personalities?

    Original Pouzar and Pouzar seem like a split personality on opposite ends of the cosmic continuum. Could they be the same person…that would be so funny. haha

  46. OmJo says:

    OriginalPouzar: The cap space is spent – its spend for next year and the next few years. Its spent next year lets say via the McDavid contract.

    If anything it was spent on Russell’s contract.

  47. Oilman99 says:

    OriginalPouzar: As I posted “I’m not saying it was a good trade or needed to happen”.

    It did happen and it was likely unnecessary, however, there is a general position that management should have spent the “unused cap space” and I don’t think many realize that management only really had the ability to sign or acquire a one-year contract.

    I’m separating the acquisition of the cap space in the Eberle trade with not spending the cap space this past year.

    The trade happened to acquire the cap space – it was a bad move – that doesn’t mean that management should make another bad move by acquiring a long-term contract that would screw us starting next year.

    The plan was clear with respect to the cap space that is available this year (as its only this year its available) – the plan was to evaluate the team over the first few months to determine where upgrades were needed for the playoff run and then be “buyers” mid-season with the cap space to upgrade.

    Unfortunately, we never got to the position where we could be buyers.

    A patient GM would have waited for the right deal to arise, rather than pull the trigger from a position of weakness. There was no reason to make a trade last summer, the team had the cap space this year. They lost a key trading piece to try for a Pachoretti, or any of the other players of equal value now coming available.

  48. Thinker says:

    VOR: I can see how people might be struggling with Lawson Crouse. But the way I see this deal I am trading a player I have no intention of signing for someone younger and cheaper that better fits the game I want to play. Then I am trading a first rounder for what most of you are pre-conditioned to think is a handful of magical beans. But I am changing the very paradigm of drafting. The old rules don’t apply, nor do old draft values.

    This is what good CEOs do. They create value where others didn’t believe it existed. I am bringing that to my job as GM. I trust my math, I trust my scouting, and I am going all in.

    I haven’t even gotten to my free agents signings, off season trades, and changes to the development system and all ready Oilers fans hate me and think I am an idiot. LOL.

    If you can get stud players with 5th rounders consistently, then you don’t need to bother trading for picks because you are already so far ahead of everyone else.

  49. VOR says:

    jtblack:
    Scungilli Slushy,

    16th Overall – 430 Games.
    “Schucker’s also says my two fourths and two fifths should produce 320 games of average play”

    I love the Fresh thinking BUT I dont knownwhat data is getting you that Mileage from your 4th and 5th rounders ….? Maybe 1. 2? But not an average.

    jtblack:
    Scungilli Slushy,

    16th Overall – 430 Games.
    “Schucker’s also says my two fourths and two fifths should produce 320 games of average play”

    I love the Fresh thinking BUT I dont knownwhat data is getting you that Mileage from your 4th and 5th rounders ….? Maybe 1. 2? But not an average.

    Again Schucker’s numbers. I love Mike, he is a great guy, and as obsessed with sports stats as anybody you will ever meet. He says the bottom of the fourth round is 88, the bottom of the fifth 80. Multiply by 2 roughly 320. I could have used his numbers for the top of the fourth and fifth and that would be 216 times two years is 432. So I understated.

  50. Thinker says:

    deardylan: DSF. Read some posts by him….felt like I was bacon introduced to a red hot sizzling frying pan.Sports IQ off the charts!! Yeah would love to see his response at some point maybe in another parallel universe he is still in Lowetide.

    Or is it a possibility he still exists here?

    Do you think some of the people that left the board officially are still coming back here using pseudo-names?Or could you spot them easily.

    Do any posters here have two accounts with different names and different personalities?

    Original Pouzar and Pouzar seem like a split personality on opposite ends of the cosmic continuum.Could they be the same person…that would be so funny.haha

    I have two accounts, but that’s because the apple keychain screwed me out of one of them.

  51. Thinker says:

    VOR:
    Maybe I should announce some personnel decisions. I am reassigning Keith Gretzky to be responsible for pro scouting. Development now has its own AGM. The Oilers are proud to announce the appointment of Martin Gelinas. Gelinas will also work with coaching staff on development, continuing education, and communication skills.

    The Oilers are committed to optimizingplayer recruitment and development. We see the redeployment of Keith and the hiring of Martin as key steps in achieving this goal.

    Can Esa be in charge of communication skills?

  52. OriginalPouzar says:

    OmJo: If anything it was spent on Russell’s contract.

    Sure, fair enough – point being that the trade not only provided cap relief for this year (which wasn’t truly necessary) but it provides cap relief for the next few years (where is is truly necessary).

    A good argument can be made that the trade was premature and Chiarelli could have waited but the points are (1) we’d be in an even more dire cap space situation for next year without the trade (but, on the other hand, could trade Eberle this off-season) and (2) the cap space we didn’t spend for this year is only available for this year – our GM was very limited in his ablity to use that cap space (limited to one-year contract acquisitions).

    I was personally against the trade on the premise that Eberle would bounce back from his unsustainable low shooting percentage and also because we got a lesser player. I was repeatedly told a number of things including (1) addition by subtraction (2) imagine if he has another poor year, we’ll never be able to trade him next off-season.

    Well, now the same people (some of the same people) think the trade should have waited.

  53. VOR says:

    Basically I need 4 four and five rounders (top end) to get the same number of games as a first rounder.

    That said, I get we are adding averages. This is why I also changed how I incentivize scouts and gave you all a hand in holding them accountable.

    A serious problem in scouting is the eco-chamber effect. The McKenzie list becomes a monolith that must be worshipped. Even though research shows Craig Button is better. CSS also has an unbelievably oversized role in scouting decisions.

    Another issue is scouts get fired for swinging and missing not for keeping their heads down and going with the safe pick.

    My system addresses both these issues. It also makes more live options available to scouts. Now they can call on the wisdom of crowds.

  54. Oilman99 says:

    OriginalPouzar: The cap space is spent – its spend for next year and the next few years.Its spent next year lets say via the McDavid contract.

    The Eberle/Strome trade was not just about cap space in 2017/18 but beyond.

    We all know when have “less than zero” cap space for next year – imagine if Eberle’s contract was still on the books for next year?

    I’m not saying it was a good trade or even needed to happen but the verbal about the “unspent cap space” is short sighted and doesn’t look beyond this year. Management was essentially limited to spending that cap space by signing a player to a one-year contract or acquiring a one-year contract.Options were must more limited.

    Keeping Eberly was not going to affect the cap this year. He had a down year last year, could have kept him for half a season,he has had a bounce back season,his value has gone up,the worst case senario is his value would have stayed the same. It was another very poor management decision.

  55. OriginalPouzar says:

    Oilman99: A patient GM would have waited for the right deal to arise, rather than pull the trigger from a position of weakness. There was no reason to make a trade last summer, the team had the cap space this year. They lost a key trading piece to try for a Pachoretti, or any of the other players of equal value now coming available.

    For the seventh time, I’m not disputing that it was a bad trade – I am still supporting Strome as, you know, I’m an Oilers fan, however, I was against the trade at the time and am against it now.

    I’m disputing the trade, I’m disputing the vitriol towards our GM for unused cap space this year. Many (not all) spewing such vitriol seemingly aren’t looking past this one season to future seasons when we have no cap space.

  56. VOR says:

    Lead farmer,

    I am incentivizing my scouts to shoot the moon. I am also giving you input. These tools are meant to insure talent will out. I do however have to point out that you have to pass through average on your way to and from great.

  57. OriginalPouzar says:

    Oilman99: Keeping Eberly was not going to affect the cap this year. He had a down year last year, could have kept him for half a season,he has had a bounce back season,his value has gone up,the worst case senario is his value would have stayed the same. It was another very poor management decision.

    Sigh,

    For the eighth time, I’m not disputing that it was a bad trade – I am still supporting Strome as, you know, I’m an Oilers fan, however, I was against the trade at the time and am against it now.
    I’m disputing the trade, I’m disputing the vitriol towards our GM for unused cap space this year. Many (not all) spewing such vitriol seemingly aren’t looking past this one season to future seasons when we have no cap space.

  58. Thinker says:

    OriginalPouzar: Sigh,

    For the eighth time, I’m not disputing that it was a bad trade – I am still supporting Strome as, you know, I’m an Oilers fan, however, I was against the trade at the time and am against it now.
    I’m disputing the trade, I’m disputing the vitriol towards our GM for unused cap space this year. Many (not all) spewing such vitriol seemingly aren’t looking past this one season to future seasons when we have no cap space.

    It’s a bad point. By that logic, we should trade McDavid now because he is a UFA in 8 years.

  59. Thinker says:

    VOR:
    Basically I need 4 four and five rounders (top end) to get the same number of games as a first rounder.

    That said, I get we are adding averages. This is why I also changed how I incentivize scouts and gave you all a hand in holding them accountable.

    A serious problem in scouting is the eco-chamber effect. The McKenzie list becomes a monolith that must be worshipped. Even though research shows Craig Button is better. CSS also has an unbelievably oversized role in scouting decisions.

    Another issue is scouts get fired for swinging and missing not for keeping their heads down and going with the safe pick.

    My system addresses both these issues. It also makes more live options available to scouts. Now they can call on the wisdom of crowds.

    Are you a little too into the Cullen measurments though? Lander played over 200 games, and never pushed the needle for his team. You could have 5 landers, but they still help less than one Klefbom/Nurse.

  60. VOR says:

    Lead farmer,

    I think you are also seriously over valuing a middle of the first round pick. If I thought I was going to be in the lottery again I would not do the deal. I don’t think I will be another year out of the playoffs.

  61. Sighduck says:

    deardylan: DSF. Read some posts by him….felt like I was bacon introduced to a red hot sizzling frying pan.Sports IQ off the charts!! Yeah would love to see his response at some point maybe in another parallel universe he is still in Lowetide.

    Or is it a possibility he still exists here?

    Do you think some of the people that left the board officially are still coming back here using pseudo-names?Or could you spot them easily.

    Do any posters here have two accounts with different names and different personalities?

    Original Pouzar and Pouzar seem like a split personality on opposite ends of the cosmic continuum.Could they be the same person…that would be so funny.haha

    As someone who has lurked here for literally years it would not surprise me to learn that a few accounts are frequented by the same IP address. I still think Ricki was an intriguing poster who at the very least challenged a few ideologies and promoted a few of his own.

    If the Pouzars were one and the same it would have to be possible that any one of us could be a Pouzar…

  62. Scungilli Slushy says:

    VOR:
    In my next few thinking about the draft posts I am going to start presenting math for improving the accuracy of player rankings in the NHL draft.

    Thanks for posting your ideas. Very interesting. Probably far too creative for the NHL sadly, but I like where you’re going in terms of creating a new advantage .

  63. Scungilli Slushy says:

    VOR:
    Lead farmer,

    I think you are also seriously over valuing a middle of the first round pick. If I thought I was going to be in the lottery again I would not do the deal. I don’t think I will be another year out of the playoffs.

    Certainly the cream is at the top. At least for how scouting is now.

  64. Lloyd B. says:

    deardylan: DSF. Read some posts by him….felt like I was bacon introduced to a red hot sizzling frying pan.Sports IQ off the charts!! Yeah would love to see his response at some point maybe in another parallel universe he is still in Lowetide.

    Or is it a possibility he still exists here?

    Do you think some of the people that left the board officially are still coming back here using pseudo-names?Or could you spot them easily.

    Do any posters here have two accounts with different names and different personalities?

    Original Pouzar and Pouzar seem like a split personality on opposite ends of the cosmic continuum.Could they be the same person…that would be so funny.haha

    Oh no.. One of these is not like the other. !!

    One is so full of himself it is unbelievable.

    The other provides great insight.

  65. VOR says:

    Thinker: Are you a little too into the Cullen measurments though? Lander played over 200 games, and never pushed the needle for his team. You could have 5 landers, but they still help less than one Klefbom/Nurse.

    I am using the Cullen scale because it measures impact if you like. By rewarding scouts who draft high Cullen scale numbers I am attempting to reduce the temptation to draft a Lander. I am getting them to focus on home runs, shooting the moon, excellence, etc.

  66. OriginalPouzar says:

    Thinker: It’s a bad point. By that logic, we should trade McDavid now because he is a UFA in 8 years.

    You are not understanding the point, clearly.

  67. leadfarmer says:

    VOR:
    Lead farmer,

    I think you are also seriously over valuing a middle of the first round pick. If I thought I was going to be in the lottery again I would not do the deal. I don’t think I will be another year out of the playoffs.

    Not at all. If I’m trading a mid first round pick plus Strome I want a better player coming back. You obviously value Lawson Crouse skill set while I think that player type is 10 years too late. Find speed and skill. Grinding the game down is 5 years too later

  68. OriginalPouzar says:

    This team could use Anton Lander right now.

    I don’t think we need 5, but I’d take one.

  69. Jethro Tull says:

    OriginalPouzar:
    This team could use Anton Lander right now.

    We’re looking for more offense, not less.

  70. OriginalPouzar says:

    Lloyd B.: Oh no.. One of these is not like the other. !!

    One is so full of himself it is unbelievable.

    The other provides great insight …. and great recipes.

    Aghhh, personal shots – very classy and mature.

  71. Lloyd B. says:

    OriginalPouzar: Aghhh, personal shots – very classy and mature.

    I like Pouzars recipes.

  72. deardylan says:

    Lloyd B.: Oh no.. One of these is not like the other. !!

    One is so full of himself it is unbelievable.

    The other provides great insight …. and great recipes.

    For me each is unique and I enjoy reading both of them. Although would be so funny if they were the same person playing different personalities.

    One seems to follow the philosophy of Bruce Lee (Be Like Water) full of passion, adaptability, positivity, emotions, exploration, and one seems like a Bill Gates (Like a Rock/Rare Earth) stable, secure and short, stay at home.

    Bruce Lee – The Power of Water!
    https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=cJMwBwFj5nQ

    Bill Gates- Power of the Earth
    “I did the best of everyone that failed” and helped Steve Balmer drop out of business school.

    https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=wq-gba5nMrc&list=PLiZj-Ik9MmM1DMqYiK1kcgFGEIJodh_Y2

    Who is OP
    Who is PO?

    haha

  73. OriginalPouzar says:

    Jethro Tull: We’re looking for more offense, not less.

    We’re not looking for penalty killing and general responsibility on the 4th line?

    Lander also has a history of producing on the PP in this organization.

  74. Lloyd B. says:

    deardylan,

    Don’t know how to do it here but I would give this one of those Thumbs Emoji things.

    If I knew how.

  75. deardylan says:

    Sighduck: As someone who has lurked here for literally years it would not surprise me to learn that a few accounts are frequented by the same IP address. I still think Ricki was an intriguing poster who at the very least challenged a few ideologies and promoted a few of his own.

    If the Pouzars were one and the same it would have to be possible that any one of us could be a Pouzar…

    Sighduck

    Do you or any long time lurkers have a Top 10 of List of Lowetide Posters over the years. If not could someone use their cerebral powers to make one in the form like Lowetide’s “Here Comes the Sun”. I really dig going back to read some of these characters over the years.

    PS. Only their strengths. So easy to find weaknesses harder to pinpoint the individual genius within all of us!

  76. deardylan says:

    Thinker: THINKER

    Were you the “Thinker” before you got locked out by your apple keychain?

  77. deardylan says:

    Lloyd B.: I like Pouzars recipes.

    I prefer OP recipes personally although I would enjoy hearing both of them go at it in conversations about Oilers over dinner!

  78. NYC-Back-to-Tokyo Oil (Gentleman Backpacker) says:

    OriginalPouzar,

    I know you were not a fan of the trade. I am not someone who wanted Eberle traded and believed he would bounce back to 25 goal 60 pt form. Therefore I am not one claiming this now in hindsight.

    I understand your cap space next year argument. I believe your reply to me misses my point:

    1 the trade did not need to happen this past summer. It could have happened after Eberle’s value rebounded. There was no great rush. Would Strome have been worth more and Eberle less? Unlikely. Chia could have waited for a better deal but he did not, which tells me Strome was the guy he wanted. It was not a forced trade. Is that fair?

    2 Some of the cap savings were spent on Russell. Other cap savings have gone unused. I hoped for a better replacement plan for Eberle than Yamamoto and Puljujarvi auditions.

    I do understand there are McDavid bonuses and likely Nurse. Pulju won’t be getting much.

    So I understand your position and I think you understand mine. We just happen to see things differently.

  79. leadfarmer says:

    VOR:
    Lead farmer,

    I think you are also seriously over valuing a middle of the first round pick. If I thought I was going to be in the lottery again I would not do the deal. I don’t think I will be another year out of the playoffs.

    Part of the reason that so many teams miss with first rounders is because they pick guys like Lawson Crouse in the first round.
    The name of the game is speed speed speed. Find guys with speed that have skill.
    Grinding game you speak of isn’t very important anymore. Dump and chase, digging puck off the boards and heavy cycle game means you let the opposition form their defensive system. Defensive systems are very hard to break down. Goal for every team should be getting a shot on goal before the defense gets set up. That’s why I hate the Russell reset and d to d passing. You are letting the d set up for free

  80. Thinker says:

    deardylan: Were you the “Thinker” before you got locked out by your apple keychain?

    For a bit, also had another name for a bit.

  81. LMHF#1 says:

    leadfarmer: Part of the reason that so many teams miss with first rounders is because they pick guys like Lawson Crouse in the first round.
    The name of the game is speed speed speed.Find guys with speed that have skill.
    Grinding game you speak of isn’t very important anymore.Dump and chase, digging puck off the boards and heavy cycle game means you let the opposition form their defensive system.Defensive systems are very hard to break down.Goal for every team should be getting a shot on goal before the defense gets set up.That’s why I hate the Russell reset and d to d passing.You are letting the d set up for free

    Agreeing with you on Crouse, but you have to be careful using speed.

    Steve Kelly had speed. He still wouldn’t have been successful in today’s league.

    What you need is a combination of positioning, skating technique and hockey knowledge that allows you to play the game quickly.

    Simply having the best top speed or being a little quick off the hop, even if combined with skill, won’t do it.

    It’s much more about technique.

  82. JimmyV1965 says:

    GMB3: It does diminish his value to the team though.

    How many cups did Pittsburgh win with Crosby and Malkin eating up a huge portion of the cup? Malkin is a significantly better player than Drasaitl as well. Chiarelli got hosed. What else is new.

    And you state that no NHL team who has a clue about developing their prospects would have Yamma on the roster next year? Well JP and Drai were both on the roster and excelling in their draft +2. Did the organization fuck them up too? Don’t most impact players crack the NHL as 20 year olds

    There are a couple serious differences between Drai and Yammer? One is a 3OV and one is 21OV. And there’s the size thing. Plenty of impact players don’t make it to the NHL until after they are 20, especially the smaller ones.

    We have a real problem drafting and developing players. I think it’s time we started doing things differently. And of course there should always be exceptions to the rules. I certainly don’t trust this team to differentiate between the exceptions and the standard way they do business.

    For the record, I think Yammer was a great pick and an excellent prospect.

  83. who says:

    So Drai has negative value because of his contract?
    Or we need to trade Drai because he is being paid a million too much per season?
    Or we need to trade Drai to improve our winger depth?
    My God. Sure do see some crazy stuff here at times.
    Drai is fine. And he is having a good year.
    Yes they moved him back with Macdavid, but only because our coach is in love with that combo and panics every time another winger goes 3 games without a goal on Macdavids line.
    My solution? Trade Maroon for a second rounder or NHL ready forward. Get whatever you can for the other UFAs. Draft well and wait two years.
    Chia’s impatience, specifically the Reinhart trade, created this problem. Another impatient move will just make it worse.
    I would also take a hard look at the coaching staff this summer. Too many players that the coaches can’t seem to utilize.

  84. VOR says:

    leadfarmer: Part of the reason that so many teams miss with first rounders is because they pick guys like Lawson Crouse in the first round.
    The name of the game is speed speed speed.Find guys with speed that have skill.
    Grinding game you speak of isn’t very important anymore.Dump and chase, digging puck off the boards and heavy cycle game means you let the opposition form their defensive system.Defensive systems are very hard to break down.Goal for every team should be getting a shot on goal before the defense gets set up.That’s why I hate the Russell reset and d to d passing.You are letting the d set up for free

    Just have to point out a few facts.

    Lawson Crouse is fast. He is a plus skater in all situations with an elite first step. This is important because his other elite skill is penalty killing. I don’t think speedy penalty killers with calm feet, fast hands and long reaches ever go out of style. Not to mention the Oilers could use one of them or two or three or four.

    Second he played a season in the NHLas a fourth liner who killed penalties.At 19 he held his own. It is not his fault that Arizona decided he could be much more than that and sent him down to the A. At first they played him with Strome and Merkely (sp?). He provided a great net front presence on the powerplay.With them he scored a point a game.

    Then Mark Lamb broke them up to spread the offence around. Crouse ended up killing penalties and anchoring the checking line. No surprise his offence vanished.

    So, he is clearly a complimentary player but not an unskilled one and definitely not a slow one.

    You hear me say grinding hockey and you think slow for some reason.

    I want Warren Foegele and Lawson Crouse because they are high energy two way players who can fly. They can match you skill for skill or grind with the best of them. Horses for courses.

  85. Harpers Hair says:

    Sighduck:
    deardylan,

    Would be interesting to see the opinion of a poster like DSF if we were.

    Yes. Yes it would.

  86. Scungilli Slushy says:

    leadfarmer: Part of the reason that so many teams miss with first rounders is because they pick guys like Lawson Crouse in the first round.
    The name of the game is speed speed speed.Find guys with speed that have skill.
    Grinding game you speak of isn’t very important anymore.Dump and chase, digging puck off the boards and heavy cycle game means you let the opposition form their defensive system.Defensive systems are very hard to break down.Goal for every team should be getting a shot on goal before the defense gets set up.That’s why I hate the Russell reset and d to d passing.You are letting the d set up for free

    Agreed. Something I notice is that without quickness most players can’t generate offensive off the cycle because they can’t separate from the check.

    Cycling with no play to an open player or the net is giving away O zone time. Easy to defend for organized teams.

    It’s why Crosby is so good at that. He gains space and finds the player. Or even better Gretzky. Connor is still figuring it out.

  87. VOR says:

    Additionally Crouse has great vision and can pass the puck. He, Dylan Strome, and Nick Merkley scored some highlight reel goals where Crouse was the set up guy and primary passer. He is for better or worse a very fast Milan Lucic, probably over valued for his intangibles and insane energy.

  88. Lloyd B. says:

    deardylan: I prefer OP recipes personally although I would enjoy hearing both of them go at it in conversations about Oilers over dinner!

    I agree DD. It would be interesting to break bread with them.

  89. Harpers Hair says:

    I have to say that Vor’s draft analysis and approach going forward is the most progressive thinking I’ve seen in many years.

    We are all very lucky to be privy to his thinking.

  90. VOR says:

    LMHF #1,

    You do know technique is by definition teachable, right? So Crouse, a highly coachable speedster with skill should be a can’t miss star, right?

  91. LMHF#1 says:

    VOR:
    LMHF #1,

    You do know technique is by definition teachable, right? So Crouse, a highly coachable speedster with skillshould be a can’t miss star, right?

    I do know it’s teachable. In fact, I’ve taught it.

    But I don’t see what you see in Crouse. He really is the forward equivalent of Reinhart in my view. I’m surprised because we usually seem to agree on players.

  92. JimmyV1965 says:

    VOR:
    W

    Life has no guarantees. The math says Ryan Strome is approaching the mid point of his career. So I traded 350 games of a 6 (at best) on the Cullen scale who I was not going to sign in any case and a first rounder in 2019 . We can’t knowwhat that pick will be so I have said it will be a 16th OV. Michael Schucker’s has shown on average that pick will play around 413 games. And that 413 games on average will be average 5-6 play on the Cullen Scale.

    Schucker’s also says my two fourths and two fifths should produce 320 games of average play. If I am right and my system for incentivizing scouts and involving the public improves outcomes for those picks and the lockout happens the chances are good the fourths and fifths cover the full cost of the tradeand give the Oilers a better chance of getting an impactplayer than the single first did. Lawson Crouse then isn’t an overpay. He is a throw in.

    This is what you all claim you want, innovative thinking restocking the prospect pool. I end up with more players on ELCs at the end than the start. I have traded one and gotten three back and also acquired six draft picks and given up 2.

    I really agree with virtually everything you post VOR, but a first for Crouse is an overpayment. It could be used better somewhere else. I really really hope Chia trades Maroon for a prospect like Foegele, rather than draft picks.

  93. JimmyV1965 says:

    Scungilli Slushy: 3 well placed first rounders would be far more valuable than any player but Connor. Assuming you don’t draft like an asshat.

    If Drai goes to Vancouver those three first round picks might be in the 15-25 range. No thanks.

  94. HenryDrix says:

    I feel like these points must be raised:
    1. Chia took 2 years to evaluate the roster
    2. Year2 playoffs allowed evaluation of the players in light of the entirely different playoff environment.
    3. Chia and Todd reward hard nosed playoff performers Drai, Kassian, Russell, Gryba with nice contracts and playing time.
    4. Chia punts the under-performer (Eberle) into the sun, blind to the return.

    Now we are Year 3 regular season and it’s not going nearly as expected, and like in Minor Hockey, when the team ain’t winning, everyone is to blame.

    This is just me trying to figure out what kind of teamChia has been trying to build and it looks to me like he values playoff performance over regular season performance. Things have gone wrong but I can see what I think he was trying to do.

    Was the plan a bad one? If we had 10 more points would your opinion be the same?

    I am resisting hard the urge to get too bent out of shape here.

    However, if we could only play with the urgency of our World Jr squad (man that was good hockey) from here on out…. Pedal to the metal. Let’s go Oilers!

  95. NYC-Back-to-Tokyo Oil (Gentleman Backpacker) says:

    If Chayka takes a 2nd and 3rd for Crouse and turns it into a 1st plus Strome he really is buying low and selling high.

  96. Harpers Hair says:

    JimmyV1965: If Drai goes to Vancouver those three first round picks might be in the 15-25 range. No thanks.

    Vancouver has Elias Petterson, Bo Horvat and Adam Gaudette (leading the NCAA in scoring and Hobey Baker finalist) as their future centres. No way they would have a sniff of interest in Draisailt at that cap hit.

  97. JimmyV1965 says:

    Harpers Hair: Vancouver has Elias Petterson, Bo Horvat and Adam Gaudette (leading the NCAA in scoring and Hobey Baker finalist) as their future centres. No way they would have a sniff of interest in Draisailt at that cap hit.

    I was referencing another post.

  98. Wilde says:

    VOR,

    I feel I value Crouse more than most people here, but a first round selection would not only be value-wise an overpayment, but I believe Arizona would part with him for cheaper, especially draft day.

    I’d make several swings at trades like this though. Except mostly for guys who are 2014-2015 ish selectons with high scoring rates when playing with skill, decent CRel% but without having earned a coaches trust.

    Like Ho-Sang, previously Duclair, Kapanen, etc

  99. VOR says:

    LMHF#1: I do know it’s teachable. In fact, I’ve taught it.

    But I don’t see what you see in Crouse. He really is the forward equivalent of Reinhart in my view. I’m surprised because we usually seem to agree on players.

    It is multi-fold. The Oilers are currently psychologically fragile. And I am being very kind. I have been looking in the AHL for players who don’t know the meaning of the word quit. Foegele and McKeown leap out. Fragile they are not.

    Crouse is another never stop trying player. I need him because I am grafting my culture on to the OBC model that overvalued gritensity. I am retooling on the fly and need the support of my bosses. And they love big hitters. Crouse most definitely is one. He is so much more but that will be what they all love.

    I am also picking these three guys to begin the retooling because biomechanical analysis reveals they are metronomic. Their teammates pick up their energy and rhythm and play at that tempo. Crouse really sets the pace. Foegele and McKeown are more subtle. Probably because they are on the ice together a lot.

    So I am collecting metronomic, high energy players with two way skills and no quit. I don’t see much difference between the three players truthfully.

    Why would I give more for Crouse than McKeown or Foegele? Because in his time in the NHL Crouse convinced me he can be an elite special team player who out plays in EV strength time. Plus he is still an A list prospect as far as Arizona is concerned. So his risk profile isn’t as daunting as the Carolina kids but the price will be higher.

    Ultimately though I can see Crouse being Ryan Smyth. Bigger, faster and harder to move but parked in the paint, taking a pounding and opening up ice for other players to thrive. The sort of guy who loses a mouth full of teeth and returns to score the game winning goal.

  100. Material pocession says:

    Harpers Hair: Yes. Yes it would.

    Welcome back to the blog DSF!

  101. VOR says:

    NYC-Back-to-Tokyo Oil (Gentleman Backpacker):
    If Chayka takes a 2nd and 3rd for Crouse and turns it into a 1st plus Strome he really is buying low and selling high.

    I am not concerned with whether another GM makes out well on his player asset management or not. I am only concerned if I end up getting the best player in the trade. In my deal Crouse is the best player. He is marginally better than the expected return on a 16th OV and considerably better than Strome. I also value all those draft picks because of the drafting model I am trying to introduce.

    If I am right about the draft model then I am hosing Chayka. If I am wrong you fire me and get another GM.

  102. Material pocession says:

    Harpers Hair: Vancouver has Elias Petterson, Bo Horvat and Adam Gaudette (leading the NCAA in scoring and Hobey Baker finalist) as their future centres. No way they would have a sniff of interest in Draisailt at that cap hit.

    We all know which équipe would be after Drai but they don’t have the assets to get him now that Sergachev is gone.

  103. Bobcaygeon says:

    deardylan: DSF. Read some posts by him….felt like I was bacon introduced to a red hot sizzling frying pan.Sports IQ off the charts!! Yeah would love to see his response at some point maybe in another parallel universe he is still in Lowetide.

    Or is it a possibility he still exists here?

    Do you think some of the people that left the board officially are still coming back here using pseudo-names?Or could you spot them easily.

    Do any posters here have two accounts with different names and different personalities?

    Original Pouzar and Pouzar seem like a split personality on opposite ends of the cosmic continuum.Could they be the same person…that would be so funny.haha

    Trust me you would know it if he was posting under a different name……
    There would be lots & lots of talk about how both Van and Cal are ahead of the Oilers in every conceivable way possible.

    He’s on twitter and I think that’s his forum now.

    I for one like his points of view and he does hold the faithful accountable as he does with Oilers.

  104. Bobcaygeon says:

    Harpers Hair: Vancouver has Elias Petterson, Bo Horvat and Adam Gaudette (leading the NCAA in scoring and Hobey Baker finalist) as their future centres. No way they would have a sniff of interest in Draisailt at that cap hit.

    Aaaaaaannnnd there he is folks…….

  105. Wilde says:

    If Adam Gaudette being in Hobey Baker talks solidified him as a future top 9 centre in the NHL, then we wouldn’t have a winger problem.

  106. NYC-Back-to-Tokyo Oil (Gentleman Backpacker) says:

    VOR,

    I have not seen Crouse play in a while. Seems like a steep price to pay for a guy who was traded so early in his career. That’s all.

    We are speaking in hypotheticals anyway. Not sure what Arizona would want for him.

  107. €v¥£€us says:

    Fussy Britches brought up Ilya Kovalchuk as a possible addition….seems unlikely, but I think there is something to “her” tweets.

  108. €v¥£€us says:

    So Jan Rutta is a UFA next year. Thoughts from folks who have seen him play, I haven’t. Could he be the missing RHD PP piece? Seems like he can offense, can he defense?

    Thoughts about contract?

    Woodguy?

  109. littleenglish says:

    VOR: It is multi-fold. The Oilers are currently psychologically fragile. And I am being very kind. I have been looking in the AHL for players who don’t know the meaning of the word quit. Foegele and McKeown leap out. Fragile they are not.

    Crouse is another never stop trying player. I need him because I am grafting my culture on to the OBC model that overvalued gritensity. I am retooling on the fly and need the support of my bosses. And they love big hitters. Crouse most definitely is one. He is so much more but that will be what they all love.

    I am also picking these three guys to begin the retooling because biomechanical analysis reveals they are metronomic. Their teammates pick up their energy and rhythm and play at that tempo. Crouse really sets the pace. Foegele and McKeown are more subtle. Probably because they are on the ice together a lot.

    So I am collecting metronomic, high energy players with two way skills and no quit. I don’t see much difference between the three players truthfully.

    Why would I give more for Crouse than McKeown or Foegele? Because in his time in the NHL Crouse convinced me he can be an elite special team player who out plays in EV strength time. Plus he is still an A list prospect as far as Arizona is concerned. So his risk profile isn’t as daunting as the Carolina kids but the price will be higher.

    Ultimately though I can see Crouse being Ryan Smyth. Bigger, faster and harder to move but parked in the paint, taking a pounding and opening up ice for other players to thrive. The sort of guy who loses a mouth full of teeth and returns to score the game winning goal.

    If the Oilers are trying to hose a team, they can get away with paying fair value – why, because they have a perceived edge and a potential asymmetric payoff.

    So given that the methodology would still be in it’s experimental stages, I think it would not be wise not to take what I think would be a larger than neccessary gamble.

  110. Hendo's Cracked Cup says:

    Jeez boys sometimes I am thinkin ’bout how much it sucks jus hangin on the wall in Hendo’s man cave. Bor-ring boys. Booorrrriiiiing.

    But I’s gots ta tells ya, I saw that clump of hair on the ice from Thorny’s beard there the other day, and it brought back the memry’s.

    I’m pritnear in the best place now I could possbly ever be!

    So’t goes ta tells ya, I figger for the most part we’s probly better off bein grateful fer wut we gots where we are.

  111. JD_Wry says:

    Pouzar: Jezzuz D Brown is a POS.

    A trip down dirtbag memory lane:

    https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=ZD0z8SDBovI

  112. NYC-Back-to-Tokyo Oil (Gentleman Backpacker) says:

    €v¥£€us:
    Fussy Britches brought up Ilya Kovalchuk as a possible addition….seems unlikely, but I think there is something to “her” tweets.

    So Ilya ‘Show me the Money’ Kovalchuk is going to come back to the NHL and play for a small salary so he can fit under the cap and play with McDavid and show Craig MacTavish the curve of his stick.

    And to make that possible Shero is going to trade him to Edmonton for the low price of Ryan Strome because he feels bad about how he fleeced Chiarelli for Taylor Hall.

    Yeah, that ‘source’ has about as much credibility as a monkey’s uncle. I will believe it when I see it. Speedyturtle–now that source has a high hit rate. This person got one thing right once and has lived off that ever since.

  113. NYC-Back-to-Tokyo Oil (Gentleman Backpacker) says:

    €^¥£€√$,

    What, the tweet was talking about offseason signings? Why throw out Kovalchuk’s name now? Makes no sense.

  114. Thinker says:

    NYC-Back-to-Tokyo Oil (Gentleman Backpacker):
    €^¥£€√$,

    What, the tweet was talking about offseason signings? Why throw out Kovalchuk’s name now? Makes no sense.

    “Pete, here’s the rights to Kovalchuk. Just stop trading with the Islanders!!!”

  115. Thinker says:

    VOR: I am not concerned with whether another GM makes out well on his player asset management or not. I am only concerned if I end up getting the best player in the trade. In my deal Crouse is the best player. He is marginally better than the expected return on a 16th OV and considerably better than Strome. I also value all those draft picks because of the drafting model I am trying to introduce.

    If I am right about the draft model then I am hosing Chayka. If I am wrong you fire me and get another GM.

    You heard it here folks. Edmonton is having a huge second half, only to come up 1 place short of the playoffs!!!

  116. GMB3 says:

    Bling:
    Really important for the Oilers braintrust not to panic.

    Here’s why:

    SCF% (7th in NHL)
    FF% (2nd in NHL)
    CF% (6th in NHL)

    Fix the special teams, fix the goaltending, improve the penalty differential (Maroon and Lucic are both taking too many penalties and not drawing enough).

    This is a very, very good team.

    The biggest test for Chia this off-season is to not do anything crazy. Weather the storm, make a few incremental upgrades, and then try again.

    Very very good team? Not sure about that. At some point the fancies don’t translate because there isn’t enough skill. Also expecting Drai to shoot at 15% is excessive. Many posters here pointed out the parallels to Eberles 77 point campaign and his absurd shooting percentage that year

  117. OriginalPouzar says:

    Wilde:
    If Adam Gaudette being in Hobey Baker talks solidified him as a future top 9 centre in the NHL, then we wouldn’t have a winger problem.

    Tyler Vessel.

  118. OriginalPouzar says:

    Boys should be back on the ice today.

    Will be interesting to see who looks to be in the lineup – Slep or Pak.

    For my sanity, I hope its Slep.

    Hopefully the boys can have a good practice and won’t have too much bye-week rust, including Talbot.

    I wonder how much skating Connor, Patty, Kas and Talbs did in Cabo?

« Older Comments

Leave a Reply

Want to join the discussion?
Feel free to contribute!
© Copyright - Lowetide.ca