G48 2017-18: Sabres at Oilers

One year ago, the Oilers formula for winning included Connor McDavid’s searing offense, Cam Talbot stopping pucks and the rest of the roster hanging on. In the last 10 games, a stretch that has seen the team go 4-5-1, McDavid has eight points (one goal), the leading goal scorers are Darnell Nurse and Patrick Maroon (both have four), there have been two power-play goals (Leon, JP) and Cam Talbot has a save percentage of .889. Only nine different players have scored a goal in the last 10 games. Incredibly, the team is on a three-game winning streak and have a promising immediate schedule. We’re past burning daylight, the team has taken exactly one forever to come together. Is this recent run true north? We begin to find that answer tonight.

THE ATHLETIC!

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RED RUM, YEAR OVER YEAR

  • January 2016: 4-2-2, goal differential -1 (10 points)
  • January 2017: 5-3-0, goal differential -1 (10 points)
  • January 2018: 4-4-0, goal differential -7 (8 points)

G9 in January 2016 was a 6-4 loss to Tampa Bay which featured a shorthanded winner and an EN goal. G9 in January 2017 was a 4-3 overtime win over the Florida Panthers. The Sabres went to overtime in Calgary last night so the Oilers should have the better boots.

AFTER 48, YEAR OVER YEAR

  • Oilers 15-16: 19-23-5, goal differential -24 (43 points)
  • Oilers 16-17: 25-15-7, goal differential +10 (57 points)
  • Oilers 17-18: 21-23-3, goal differential -18 (45 points)

G48 was a 6-4 loss to the Lightning as above, as the Oilers stumbled toward the end of January (the 15-16 team would win just 12 more games). G48 for the 16-17 team was a 3-2 shootout loss to Nashville. The 16-17 team would win 22 more by the end of the year from this point on. If this year’s team splits the difference (winning 17 games) the club would finish with 38 wins in 2017-18. Honestly, that seems reasonable based on season history and quality of team.

WHAT TO EXPECT FROM JANUARY

  • At home to: Los Angeles, Anaheim (Expected 0-1-1) (Actual 1-1-0)
  • On the road to: Dallas, Chicago, Nashville, Arizona, Vegas (Expected 2-2-1) (Actual 2-3-0)
  • At home to: Vancouver, Buffalo, Calgary (Expected 2-1-0) (Actual 1-0-0)
  • Overall expected result: 4-4-2, 10 points in 10 games
  • Current results: 4-4-0, eight points in eight games

Anyone who tells you they absolutely know which Oilers team will show up tonight is lying. The verbal seems confident and the Saturday game was fun, but who knows what tonight brings?

CENTRAL SCOUTING

The idea of Central is making sure the team hasn’t forgotten or missed someone in their region. In the brilliant Gare Joyce “Heartbreaks” book, he quotes a Western Conference scout on Central:

  • “The fact is that they do the best they can with the resources the league gives them. They give us a guide, not a definitive breakdown. If it were definitive, there’d be a lot of guys out of jobs.”
That’s it, that’s all. If you are treating the CS list as gospel, you’re doing it wrong. I recommend Pronman, Red Line, Black Book and of course Bob McKenzie’s list on Friday. Here’s my list with Central’s rankings.
  1. LD Rasmus Dahlin, Frolunda (SHL). Europe No. 1
  2. R Andrei Svechnikov, Barrie Colts (OHL). North America No. 1
  3. L Filip Zadina, Halifax Mooseheads (QMJHL). North America No. 2
  4. LC Jacob Olofsson, Timra (Allsvenskan). Europe No. 5
  5. LD Ty Smith, Spokane Chiefs (WHL). North America No. 14.
  6. RD Adam Boqvist, Brynas (SuperElite). Europe No. 2
  7. RC Akil Thomas, Niagara Ice Dogs (OHL). North America No. 10
  8. L Brady Tkachuk, Boston University (NCAA)North America No. 3
  9. RD Ryan Merkley, Guelph Storm (OHL). North America No. 21
  10. LD Quinn Hughes, Michigan (NCAA). North America No. 4
  11. L Joel Farabee, U.S. National Development Program (USHL). North America No. 11
  12. R Oliver Wahlstrom, U.S. National Development Program (USHL). North America No. 7
  13. LC Filip Hallander, Timra (Allsvenskan). Europe No. 12.
  14. RD Jett Woo, Moose Jaw Warriors (WHL). North America No. 20
  15. LC Ryan McLeod, Mississauga Steelheads (OHL). North America No. 16
  16. LC Barrett Hayton, SSM Greyhounds (OHL). North America No. 6
  17. RC Rasmus Kupari, Karpat (Sm-Liiga). Europe No. 6
  18. LC Joe Veleno, Drummondville (QMJHL). North America No. 13.
  19. RD Noah Dobson, Acadie-Bathurst Titan (QMJHL). North America No. 8
  20. LC Jesperi Kotkaniemi, Assat (Sm-Liiga). Europe No. 9
  21. RD Evan Bouchard, London Knights (OHL). North America No. 5
  22. LD K’Andre Miller, U.S. National Development Team (USHL). North America No. 31
  23. RD Calen Addison, Lethbridge Hurricanes (WHL). North America No. 34.
  24. R Dominik Bokk, Vajxo Lakers (SuperElite). Europe No. 8
  25. RD Bode Wilde, U.S. National Development Team (USHL). North America No. 22.
  26. RC Cam Hillis, Guelph Storm (OHL). North America No. 59.
  27. LC Phillipp Kurashev, Quebec Remparts (QMJHL). North America No. 68.
  28. LC Milos Roman, Vancouver Giants (WHL). North America No. 40.
  29. L Isac Lundestrom, Lulea (SHL). Europe No. 3
  30. W Samuel Fagemo, Frolunda (SuperElite). Europe No. 40.
  31. LD Jared McIssac, Halifax Mooseheads (QMJHL). North America No. 12.

I am missing (but considered) Serron Noel (NA No. 9); Rasmus Sandin (NA No. 15); Benoit-Oliver Groulx (NA No. 18); Patrick Giles (NA No. 19). Among high ranking Europeans, I have not listed Grigori Denisenko (Euro No. 4) and Adam Ginning (Euro No. 7). Lists are here.

Central doesn’t move much at the top in their final rankings (they were famously stubborn on Angelo Esposito in 2007, dropping him to No. 8; he would go No. 20) but there will be lots of movement. Last year’s big movers were Jason Robertson and Alexandre Texier (last year’s list).

Any of the top 6 on my list would be fabulous for the Oilers. I really like Ty Smith, Simon Boisvert has me interested in tracking Oliver Wahlstrom.

CENTRAL CURIOS

  • The Top 50 NA list features 17 names from the OHL, nine from the QMJHL, just five from the WHL. Low total out west. The USTP (U.S. National development team) has seven names in the top 50, five more from other USHL clubs. Two kids from U.S.high school, two from BCHL, two from NCAA and one from OJHL. That’s 50.
  • Oilers don’t draft the Q heavily, that may change this year with the improved quality.
  • Curtis Douglas, a center for the Windsor Spitfires, is the tallest man in the draft at 6.08.
  • Adam Samuelsson, a defenseman for the U.S. National team, is the heaviest at 240.
  • There are six players from Swe-2 (Allsvenskan) in the Euro top 50. That’s the league that seems to house explosive kids like Elias Pettersson (I had him No. 4 overall, Central had him No. 2 Euro) and I wonder if we see a run on these kids from that emerging league.

LOWDOWN WITH LOWETIDE

A busy morning, we’ll go heavy on the hockey and throw in some football and tennis for good measure. All gets rolling at 10, TSN1260:

  • Jonathan Willis, The Athletic. Jon’s recent posts on mid-season performances reveals plenty and we’ll drill down on several subjects.
  • Steve Kournianos, The Draft Analyst. Central’s list, Steve’s opinions.
  • Scott Cullen, TSN. Wild trade deadline ahead, who is safe in Edmonton, Avs baby, Aussie Open hot!
  • Paul Hamilton, WGR55 Buffalo. The Sabres at the deadline and into summer.

10-1260 text, @Lowetide on twitter. Talk soon!

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493 Responses to "G48 2017-18: Sabres at Oilers"

« Older Comments
  1. €√¥£€^$ says:

    I guess the stick whack to 91’s gut by Scandella not egregious when compared to the pushing and shoving by the 40lb bigger and 6″ shorter guy.

    How is this a penalty in a sport that allows 250lb men to punch eachother in the face?

  2. StixMalone says:

    Wow pk at 25% tonight. Things are looking up. Please someone throw a jersey…..

  3. OilersKarma101 says:

    russ99: He has a point, if there’s one thing this fanbase loves, it’s scapegoats.

    Lots of blame to go around tonight, it doesn’t have to devolve into the knee-jerk “fire the coaches”,”Fire Chia” and “Hall and Eberle”.

    This x 10

    I’m a fan of the Oilers ladies & gents
    May not come across that way, but I’m tired of the way the fan base goes bipolar on the players and management.
    I heard people DUMP on Hall through his years here and then COMPLAIN when he was traded.Eberle received the same shtick. And now? It’s Groundhog Day.

    And the same old, same old finger pointing shall continue.
    Some of you come across as very intelligent folks, but honestly, try to be less prickish when counter arguing your point of views. It lessens your argument.
    Anonymity is a wonderful thing I guess.

  4. OmJo says:

    Remenda’s laugh as the screen fades out is going to give me nightmares.

  5. NYC-Back-to-Tokyo Oil (Gentleman Backpacker) says:

    russ99,

    Didn’t know you speak for him. But what’s the point in targeting the fans? These are the best, most loyal fans in hockey. 12 years of suck with one good year mixed in.

    It’s a wonder people stay. It’s no wonder people are upset.

    I did not see any scapegoating, rather a throwing of hands up at everything.

    So, no, I disagree with the poster and with you.

  6. OilersKarma101 says:

    NYC-Back-to-Tokyo Oil (Gentleman Backpacker),

    Loyal?
    Nobody can do right in some fans eyes!
    If that’s loyalty…

  7. jzed says:

    TMac needs to throw his stick tomorrow

  8. Spooky Lynx says:

    At least Montoya looked pretty decent in relief. That’s something.

  9. Nailer Yakumoto says:

    I blame [insert scapegoat here].

  10. AsiaOil says:

    Only coach I ever really wanted gone was Eakins, and even then, I actually hated the hire from day 1 rather than coming to that conclusion later on. But I think it’s obvious that something is very, very wrong with this coaching staff and TMac needs to go by season’s end. Sooner the better to be honest – like tomorrow.

  11. StixMalone says:

    They’ve hit the lowest point this season. Oh wait we’ve been here before and there’s still games left. Damn….

  12. hunter1909 says:

    Pissed the Oilers are losing Tonight?

    Go Directly to:

    http://www.oilersdeathmarch.com

    then go to “Enter New Contest” and follow the easy instructions!

  13. Wilde says:

    OilersKarma101,

    This just isn’t true, though.

    Most of the people who are saying anything now, were against the Hall trade when it happened.

    Yes, people shit on Hall & Eberle.

    Yes, people shit on the trades.

    The venn diagram of those two groups has very, very little overlap, especially here. It’s different groups of people.

    And if fans were allowed to shit on the opinion of others’ on the Hall trade last year, then the other group should be able to stand up now.

  14. LMHF#1 says:

    Spooky Lynx:
    At least Montoya looked pretty decent in relief. That’s something.

    He should have started by now based on play.

  15. hunter1909 says:

    StixMalone:
    They’ve hit the lowest point this season. Oh wait we’ve been here before and there’s still games left. Damn….

    Over 30 games, lol

  16. hunter1909 says:

    Wilde: And if fans were allowed to shit on the opinion of others’ on the Hall trade last year, then the other group should be able to stand up now.

    Who will put the bell on the cat?

  17. NYC-Back-to-Tokyo Oil (Gentleman Backpacker) says:

    OilersKarma101:
    NYC-Back-to-Tokyo Oil (Gentleman Backpacker),

    Loyal?
    Nobody can do right in some fans eyes!
    If that’s loyalty…

    The nature of ‘fandom’ itself means you are going to have all types from Cassandra to OriginalPouzar.

    What’s the point on painting the collective group as bad?

  18. HT Joe says:

    OilersKarma101: I heard people DUMP on Hall through his years here and then COMPLAIN when he was traded

    You may have been reading comments from different posters. Maybe I’m misremembering, but the same people who consistently cheered for Hall were generally the same ones who got pissed off when he was traded.

  19. jzed says:

    Special teams? The exact opposite of special Teams

  20. HT Joe says:

    OilersKarma101: Anonymity is a wonderful thing I guess.

    Agreed Mr. OilersKarma101… agreed

    *EDIT* How presumptuous of me… or Mrs. OilersKarma101, or even Ms. OilersKarma101… ?

  21. Munny says:

    Kevin and Drew studiously avoiding the elephant in the room by making this about Eichel and McDavid.

  22. €√¥£€^$ says:

    AsiaOil:
    Only coach I ever really wanted gone was Eakins, and even then, I actually hated the hire from day 1 rahter than coming to that conclusion later on. But I think it’s obvious that something is very, very wrong with this coaching staff and TMac needs to go by season’s end. Sooner the better actually to be honest – like tomorrow.

    I bet after this game he feels the same way.

    I can’t imagine being in his shoes and facing the media so often after these brutal games.

    No matter who is at fault, it is ultimately his team.

  23. jzed says:

    TMac needs to throw (scapegoats) stick tomorrow

  24. OmJo says:

    OilersKarma101: This x 10

    I’m a fan of the Oilers ladies & gents
    May not come across that way, but I’m tired of the way the fan base goes bipolar on the players and management.
    I heard people DUMP on Hall through his years here and then COMPLAIN when he was traded.Eberle received the same shtick. And now? It’s Groundhog Day.

    And the same old, same old finger pointing shall continue.
    Some of you come across as very intelligent folks, but honestly, try to be less prickish when counter arguing your point of views. It lessens your argument.
    Anonymity is a wonderful thing I guess.

    It’s been proven ad naseum that Hall wasn’t the problem. The people who blamed Hall – and continue to do so today – are media figures who refuse to critically comment on management or fans who outright ignore the evidence of how good Taylor Hall was when he was here (some of the media figures fit in this camp, too). As for Eberle, the issue isn’t that he was traded, it’s what he was traded for.

    There’s no need to point fingers, just look at the on ice product. Look at the team with 2 wingers on pace for 20+ goals, and another on pace for 19 – when we have McDavid, Draisaitl, and Nugent-Hopkins as centres. Look at the team that has the worst penalty kill in the history of the NHL (happy 100th birthday, NHL!)… Look at the team that has a 3LW an 3LD locked up to $10M for the next four years. Look at the team that has a new lineup every game because the coach is as bipolar as the fans, apparently.

    Look at the team that traded one of the best LW in the game today for a very good 2RD, traded away a capable top 6 goal scoring winger for a decent 3C, bought out a capable penalty killer and depth scoring winger because the coach didn’t like him, and let a young [injury prone] depth scoring winger go because they wouldn’t give him a one-way contract.

    Am I being unfair? Am I scapegoating management by bringing up their track record to date?

    You can counter with Maroon, Talbot and Kassian. Aside from Talbot, those additions aren’t big enough additions to the team to counteract the damage General Disappointment has done to this roster… As clearly evident by their record this season.

  25. jzed says:

    TMac needs to throw Chiarellis stick tomorrow

  26. OmJo says:

    Another gem:

    Peter Chiarelli
    ‏ @FakeOilersGM
    6m6 minutes ago

    Pathetic effort tonight. Our fans deserve better. Everyone in this organisation needs to be held accountable for the failures of the past decade+ so it is with great regret that I’m announcing that Paul Coffey has been let go.

  27. Réal Goudenyéu says:

    Worst PK in the history of the NHL. Its almost unbelievable.

  28. Munny says:

    Réal Goudenyéu:
    Worst PK in the history of the NHL. Its almost unbelievable.

    Considering it’s top 4 on the road, that means it is eye-stabbingly bad at home.

  29. Harpers Hair says:

    NYC-Back-to-Tokyo Oil (Gentleman Backpacker): The nature of ‘fandom’ itself means you are going to have all types from Cassandra to OriginalPouzar.

    What’s the point on painting the collective group as bad?

    The unfortunate thing is long time fans like Woodguy have had enough of the shit show. Losing a great mind like his is sad for all of us.

  30. Rondo says:

    Oilers quit tonight. They had a chance in the 3rd to show up they didn’t.

  31. Wilde says:

    Unmentioned so far as I’ve read:

    Yamamoto has another multi point game in a row.

    Snipe from the centre slot 31 seconds in, and threw a puck in front on a drive wide for a 2nd assist.

  32. NYC-Back-to-Tokyo Oil (Gentleman Backpacker) says:

    I think we all have our different points of view and often disagree but I don’t think painting the collective group with any one single brush makes any sense.

    You have Chia defenders and critics and TMac defenders and critics, Hall and Eberle and so and so forth.

    It is hard to put lipstick on a pig but by and large the rink is full for a team that too often fails to show up for games.

    I think as a whole Oiler fans are incredibly loyal and no one will convince me otherwise, and that includes the fans who do scapegoat certain players or staff.

  33. StixMalone says:

    If I hear TMac say that the team wasn’t mentally prepared tonight I will ask for his firing. I am sick of hearing it….

  34. Réal Goudenyéu says:

    Rex-all! Feel better oilers fans!

    Sing it.

  35. Crazy Pedestrian says:

    HT Joe: You may have been reading comments from different posters.Maybe I’m misremembering, but the same people who consistently cheered for Hall were generally the same ones who got pissed off when he was traded.

    I am one of those people…

    In my opinion, Hall was, like McDavid, an untouchable. I was willing to accept anyone being traded but them. The day he was traded, I was not a happy person. If McDavid wasn’t on the team, I would have been done with hockey. Since I could not fathom switching to a new team.

    Even though the trade worked out last year, and I like Larsson as a player, I was never able to truly get behind Chia as our GM.

  36. OmJo says:

    OilersKarma101,

    I’m watching a fairweather Oilers fan eat beets with beet ketchup because the Oilers lost.

  37. Munny says:

    Home PK percentage is nearing a coin toss. That would save two minutes of the fans’ time.

  38. OmJo says:

    Munny:
    Home PK percentage is nearing a coin toss.That would save two minutes of the fans’ time.

    I think we actually have better odds with a coin toss than a 2 minute penalty kill, too!

  39. Réal Goudenyéu says:

    Did coach just claim there’s been significant changes on the pp?

  40. OmJo says:

    Crazy Pedestrian: I am one of those people…

    In my opinion, Hall was, like McDavid, an untouchable. I was willing to accept anyone being traded but them. The day he was traded, I was not a happy person. If McDavid wasn’t on the team, I would have been done with hockey. Since I could not fathom switching to a new team.

    Even though the trade worked out last year, and I like Larsson as a player, I was never able to truly get behind Chia as our GM.

    I feel the exact same way. That trade was heartbreaking. We went through hell to get Hall, and he was the only reason to tune in most nights (like McDavid this season) and he was gone, just like that. Not just gone, but gone for a player who, as good as Larsson is as a shutdown RD, is not the kind of player you trade 1-for-1

  41. Scungilli Slushy says:

    Hi folks, caught some of the third. Sadly work and too many young kids makes it hard to spend the time even PVR. You called it LT.

    I didn’t see Slepy play much, not a good sign.

    My comment is that I have a problem with Strome now. When Caggiula was getting mauled by the ‘fearsome Marco Scandella’ and it went to the corner Strome skated over to the scrum. Routine right?

    He ended up by Scandella and after it was fizzling out took two glove ‘taps’ to the face. Pretty good head snap. He looked surprised.

    And he skated off.

    If Marco Scandella is doing that to you and you don’t have enough gumption to lose your shit on him at the end of the third in a 5-0 loss, I don’t think you realize that your playing for your next season roster spot in a violent league where people that lay down for it who can stand up for themselves and aren’t top players don’t help the greater good. The refs aren’t going to help you. Way too relaxed about things for me.

    It’s not like you’re fighting Chara.

    You don’t even have to fight. Just do something to show you’re not a punk and you’re team won’t be punked. By a team worse than yours especially.

    See Ryan Strome get a 5×5 NMC this summer. Book it.

    I don’t even like fighting in the game.

    Also, Caggiula is not a top 6 NHL player by my eye. But he looks fast and seems to give a shit in a way that shows in the ice. I’m not seeing it in a productive way in the future for him.

    Caggiula 4x4M book it.

    Guess what? All the slow guys can’t seem to get into the play against teams that can skate it seems.

    Time to liquidate things PC. Make next year much better.

  42. OmJo says:

    Why can’t we play Vancouver and Vegas every game?

  43. anduril says:

    I saw way more heart and pride at Minor Hockey Week than I saw tonight. Just sad.

  44. OmJo says:

    If MacTavish never traded Petry, never logged into Skype, and never publicly insulted Dubnyk… none of this would be happening.

    But we also probably wouldn’t have McDavid.

    This is honestly so damn conflicting…

  45. russ99 says:

    OmJo: I feel the exact same way. That trade was heartbreaking. We went through hell to get Hall, and he was the only reason to tune in most nights (like McDavid this season) and he was gone, just like that. Not just gone, but gone for a player who, as good as Larsson is as a shutdown RD, is not the kind of player you trade 1-for-1

    I see your point. My parallel is Altuve with the Astros. It’s very doubtful he stays with the Astros his whole career, and it’ll hurt like hell when he has to go, and like Hall there’s no way they can get back in trade value what he means to the fans.

    But when they traded a Gretzky and a Messier, nobody is untouchable.

    Those players accomplished a lot here, seems that fans holding onto the Hall trade are about what could have been, which is never certain.

  46. Munny says:

    OmJo: I think we actually have better odds with a coin toss than a 2 minute penalty kill, too!

    54 percent kill ratio, so better odds killing… but just barely.

  47. Whatif says:

    This entire team looked terrible tonight. That included McDavid. He did not have a stellar game.

    What I find most upsetting is not the loss but rather that they just didn’t seem to even care that they were getting their asses kicked by the 30th placed team on the second night of a back to back.

    PC and the Toddler have some work to do. Neither of them has come close to accomplishing anything positive his season.

    Based on the recent lack of results it would appear that we have returned to the Decade of Darkness.

  48. JimmyV1965 says:

    My concern going forward is the possible permanent damage this will cause to players like Klef and Benning. Klef was a good player last year and now he’s lost. Will he recover from this?

    Having him paired with Benning is about the worst thing you can do. If we have any hope going forward with Benning he has to go down to the AHL. He’s simply out of his league and trotting him out there every game is killing his development.

    The Oilers have created quite a quagmire for themselves and getting out of it will take a measured thoughtful approach that is way beyond anything I can think of.

  49. OmJo says:

    russ99,

    May not be certain but I think its fair to say highly likely they would have had success here. If you keep Hall, the Eberle trade is almost inconsequential because that 2nd line will run just fine (remember what he did centred by Lander?)

    I know nobody was untouchable after the Gretzky trade. But it should have taken a lot more than one phone call to agree on a deal involving Hall. Neither trade had to happen, but they did. I wasn’t born when Gretzky was traded so the Hall trade is probably equivalent (please note I’m not saying Hall = Gretzky) and I can sympathize with how fans felt back then.

    Munny,

    Sorry, I thought you meant for home games lol. On the road the PK isn’t horrible. It’s strange.

  50. BeerMe says:

    Somehow this squalid squad has managed to suck out the excitement of watching McDavid play. The players, like their GM and coaching staff, are occasionally brilliant, but overwhelmingly plagued by poor execution and inconsistency.

    We all knew the Oilers needed to upgrade their D, but Hall for Larsson is just a losing deal no matter how you slice it.

    Most of us had the knives out for Eberle after his phantom playoff performance last year, but the Strome deal was a catastrophe, downgrading on player quality AND exchanging a scoring winger for an unproven center, which made no sense from an organizational perspective.

    We all knew the Oilers needed to be extremely careful managing the cap, but nobody can make an argument that wasting $8 million in cap space was the optimal strategy this year, especially when some of it came from offloading Pouliot for no reason.

    We all knew we needed some size, but the Lucic contract was dead-on-arrival and it will hurt this team for years to come. I cringed the day it was signed and I’m sure we will all be cringing inn a couple more years.

    The Reinhart trade was always a flyer and a headscratcher but I’ll give that a pass because at the time none of the involved players were proven.

    Despite the abysmal track record ChiaPete has left in his wake, the players have underperformed horribly. Taking shifts off, refusing to shoot the puck, dogging it back to the bench, flopping around on the PK, and laying eggs at home night after night.

    All the while, Todd has been consistently 2 or more weeks behind the fanbase and media in his implementation of the logical next steps to solving what is ailing this team, and in my opinion it has helped sewer the season. Doing the same shit over night after night and expecting things to magically fix themselves. Playing Lucic with McDavid and RNH instead of Drai. Refusing to remove LaTestTube on the dysfunctional powerplay. Not sending Sekera down for a conditioning stint in the AHL when he was laying eggs. Refusing to pull Talbot when every Oiler fan with a brain stem knew it was gonna be one of his softie nights. Putting Milan fucking Lucic out for 3-on-3 OT, which is essentially hockey malpractice.

    This team is headed for disaster and they are mentally fragile. If they get off to a weak start next year and Todd is still around I think they are toast. Don’t see things getting any better. And lordy if I wake up one summer morning and see a tweet about an RNH trade, I think I will have an aneurysm.

  51. Whatif says:

    Sick and tired of people rehashing the Hall trade ad nauseum.

    Enough Already.

  52. hunter1909 says:

    BeerMe: This team is headed for disaster and they are mentally fragile. If they get off to a weak start next year and Todd is still around I think they are toast.

    It’s basically a given that: TMac will be around and they will get off to another Yamamoto type start.

  53. hunter1909 says:

    Whatif:
    Sick and tired of people rehashing the Hall trade ad nauseum.

    Enough Already.

    I’m only starting to get into it.

  54. innercitysmytty says:

    OmJo,

    Is Talbot even on the positive side of the ledger for Chia? I get the D could be better this year but he’s been horrible on the PK and below average at best 5×5.

  55. thehop says:

    Where’s Original Pouzar and the power of positive thought? Needing it now more than ever.

  56. HT Joe says:

    Whatif:
    Sick and tired of people rehashing the Hall trade ad nauseum.

    Enough Already.

    hunter1909: I’m only starting to get into it.

    http://lowetide.ca/2016/06/29/breaking-hall-to-new-jersey/

    HAHAHAHAH!

  57. Munny says:

    OmJo: Sorry, I thought you meant for home games lol. On the road the PK isn’t horrible. It’s strange.

    I did (lol so now I’m confused).

    I think TMac summed up the problem pretty well during post-game. It ain’t rocket science.

  58. JimmyV1965 says:

    innercitysmytty:
    OmJo,

    Is Talbot even on the positive side of the ledger for Chia? I get the D could be better this year but he’s been horrible on the PK and below average at best 5×5.

    He needed to stop that first goal. Consistently inconsistent. Does anyone know how many times he’s been pulled this year? Must be close to double digits.

  59. striatic says:

    Munny: 54 percent kill ratio, so better odds killing… but just barely.

    Sure, but if the Oilers took the coin toss they’d get 1 or 2 additional even strength minutes per PK decided by coin. Even if going by coin meant a 4% better chance of giving up a goal, It’d be worth trading for more even strength minutes.

  60. NYC-Back-to-Tokyo Oil (Gentleman Backpacker) says:

    Whatif:
    Sick and tired of people rehashing the Hall trade ad nauseum.

    Enough Already.

    Until LT says so I don’t think it’s for you to decide. You can always take a break like I do from time to time.

  61. JimmyV1965 says:

    russ99: I see your point. My parallel is Altuve with the Astros. It’s very doubtful he stays with the Astros his whole career, and it’ll hurt like hell when he has to go, and like Hall there’s no way they can get back in trade value what he means to the fans.

    But when they traded a Gretzky and a Messier, nobody is untouchable.

    Those players accomplished a lot here, seems that fans holding onto the Hall trade are about what could have been, which is never certain.

    Altuve will be with the Astros throughout the prime of his career. He doesn’t move until he’s 32+. Book
    It.

  62. Spooky Lynx says:

    thehop,

    Here’s some positivity for ya: according to one source on Reddit the Oilers now have the #1 road PK in the league after the Kings gave up 3 tonight. We’re the very best in the league! Isn’t that wonderful? 🙂

    Pay no mind to what that says of our home PK…

  63. StixMalone says:

    Coach said they made significant changes tonight. It didn’t work. I didn’t see them either, other than line shuffling. Pk an Pp abysmal. Buffalo had no problem dissecting this team. Pretty easy to do on a nightly basis on home ice no less! Any opposing coach sees right through this team. I don’t get it? We are so archaic with our plays it’s gonna be the demise of the McDavid era. No creativity when that is what we need the most. Same old plays that don’t work. That is on the coaches. Remember the game where Connor took the whiteboard and drew up a play that resulted in a goal? Something different that worked. Change is required. Don’t ask me what I’d do because if I was owner I would call a team plus management meeting and it wouldn’t be pretty. It would probably hurt my pocket book to boot……

  64. Lloyd B. says:

    OmJo:
    russ99,

    May not be certain but I think its fair to say highly likely they would have had success here. If you keep Hall, the Eberle trade is almost inconsequential because that 2nd line will run just fine (remember what he did centred by Lander?)

    I know nobody was untouchable after the Gretzky trade. But it should have taken a lot more than one phone call to agree on a deal involving Hall. Neither trade had to happen, but they did. I wasn’t born when Gretzky was traded so the Hall trade is probably equivalent (please note I’m not saying Hall = Gretzky) and I can sympathize with how fans felt back then.

    Munny,

    Sorry, I thought you meant for home games lol. On the road the PK isn’t horrible. It’s strange.

    OMJO The Hall trade wasn’t even close to how the Gretzky trade felt. More like the Guerin trade.

    It was the beginning of the end and we knew it.

    Nor Coffey. Nor the Messier one. By the time Kurri left it was … oh well.

    Watching the owner decimate one of the best teams in NHL history because of money issues was incredible.

    No cap in those days. Could have won a couple more cups if the Oilers owner had the cash.

    WG Makes me want to throw up when he shows the impact of having both Hall and McDavid on this team.

    Difference of the Gretzky/Hall trades is … what it could of been … instead of ….what it was.

  65. Munny says:

    striatic,

    I was thinking along the lines that the 2 minutes would be forsaken (thus the original comment about saving the fans’ time), but if not forsaken, you are right, this would be true on home ice, sad as the thought is.

  66. Wilde says:

    JimmyV1965,

    First one he was screened by two of our guys, because our PK lines up facing out to the point so they can come in waves to try to score a shortie.

  67. Munny says:

    StixMalone: Any opposing coach sees right through this team. I don’t get it.

    No, they don’t. Not when the Oil are on the road. That’s what I don’t get.

    TMac was right tonight. PK is largely about out-working your opponent. We got out-worked in every aspect of the game tonight–not just PK–and that isn’t “seeing right through the team”. There wasn’t even any practice time to game plan the Oilers. They got out-worked by a bottom-dweller on a back-to-back and then gave up what little effort they were offering on the bad bounce third goal.

  68. commonfan29 says:

    Lloyd B.: It was the beginning of the end and we knew it.

    So was the Hall trade. Doesn’t matter that some people didn’t know it at the time.

  69. JimmyV1965 says:

    Does anyone know how many times Talbot has been pulled? Must be close to double digits.

  70. OmJo says:

    Lloyd B.,

    Difference of the Gretzky/Hall trades is … what it could of been … instead of ….what it was.

    Fair point. I suppose if the team trades McDavid I’ll have a better feel of what it was like 1988.

    In that case I hope I never know what it was like – no offense ofc.

    I wasn’t old enough to remember those trades either. Before the Hall trade the hardest trade I’ve dealt with was the Smyth trade, and even then I’d only been a fan for a year before it happened (yes, I began as a bandwagon fan… I know…) so it wasn’t as impactful as the Hall trade.

    As commonfan29 put it, the Hall trade was the beginning of the end from my POV, too. It set the team on a course to mediocrity rather than elite, the Sharks instead of the Penguins was how I put it that summer.

  71. OmJo says:

    JimmyV1965:
    Does anyone know how many times Talbot has been pulled? Must be close to double digits.

    Talbot has started 38 games this season. 38 out of 48 games. Brossoit had 10 starts, 7 when Talbot was injured.

    He’s played a ridiculous amount of games this season already. He’s only been pulled 6 times if I counted this right. Both Montoya and Brossoit have 3 games each which they didn’t start.

  72. OmJo says:

    innercitysmytty:
    OmJo,

    Is Talbot even on the positive side of the ledger for Chia? I get the D could be better this year but he’s been horrible on the PK and below average at best 5×5.

    If TMac played Brossoit more often I think both goaltenders would have benefited from it this season. He has to be fatigued or something. Only reason he doesn’t have 45 starts this season is his injury.

    It’s one thing to play a goaltender 38/48 games, but to continue playing him while he’s struggling… Messes with the confidence of both your starter and backup. No different than MacT expressing his distrust in Dubnyk as a starter IMO.

  73. Wilde says:

    Munny: No, they don’t. Not when the Oil are on the road. That’s what I don’t get.

    TMac was right tonight. PK is largely about out-working your opponent. We got out-worked in every aspect of the game tonight–not just PK–and that isn’t “seeing right through the team”. There wasn’t even any practice time to game plan the Oilers. They got out-worked by a bottom-dweller on a back-to-back and then gave up what little effort they were offering on the bad bounce third goal.

    Nothing in the NHL is largely about out-working your opponent.

    Nothing.

    It would be a nice story if success at the most elite levels of competition was driven mostly by working hard, but it’s not.

    That it’s commonly said to be so by media and fans is an insult to the players accused of poor professional integrity, and a minimisation of the talent of the players playing against them as well.

    Good PKers were given away, and a system that poorly limits dangerous chances close to the net has been implemented since this coaching staff arrived, where it was covered up until this season by stellar goaltending.

    The heatmaps on where the shots and chances are coming from show that this structure limits point shots and gives up netfront chances, and this data followed the coaching staff from San Jose to here.

    The players were where they were supposed to be on the penalty kill, and it resulted in screening their own goalie, and being out of position to cover dangerous chances.

    Either the system is too difficult to play to its effectiveness, or its effectiveness is null.

    It can’t be the players if it has the same results with multiple roster and multiple clubs.

  74. godot10 says:

    jzed:
    TMac needs to throw his stick tomorrow

    TMac needs to fire his assistant coaches tomorrow. Accountability.

    #ImGoingToNeedABiggerPhoneBooth

  75. Munny says:

    Wilde: Nothing in the NHL is largely about out-working your opponent.
    Nothing.
    It would be a nice story if success at the most elite levels of competition was driven mostly by working hard, but it’s not.
    That it’s commonly said to be so by media and fans is an insult to the players accused of poor professional integrity, and a minimisation of the talent of the players playing against them as well.

    It was almost a direct quote from the coach.

    And if you listen to post-game interviews, a lot of coaches over a season make similar comments. Players say it too, but more rarely.

    I think you’re on a bit of an island with this one. At least with the categorical emphasis that you deployed. Obviously reality is more nuanced than one narrative thread, but sometimes the primary thread is effort level/legs whatever you want to call it. Fragile confidence is another. Goaltending another, albeit that might have confidence in play.

    IIRC this is the 4th youngest team in the NHL. These kids in many cases are still learning professionalism, consistency, resiliency. That’s actually stunning when one considers when this re-build started, 4th youngest. At some point the Oil have to stick with a group and give them a chance to grow up.

    The sad thing is we also have vets like Looch shitting the bed like he did tonight, Normally I like his game, even when most don’t, but tonight was a real stinker.

    JMHO,.. I actually thought you were being satirical on the first read, to tell you the truth.

  76. godot10 says:

    Whatif:
    Sick and tired of people rehashing the Hall trade ad nauseum.

    Enough Already.

    It has only been 20 months. We rehashed trading out of Zach Parise for nearly a decade. The Smyth trade was rehashed for several years. The Gretzky trade…for a generation.

  77. godot10 says:

    Munny: I did (lol so now I’m confused).

    I think TMac summed up the problem pretty well during post-game. It ain’t rocket science.

    Blamed everyone but himself.

  78. Wilde says:

    Munny: It was almost a direct quote from the coach.

    And if you listen to post-game interviews, a lot of coaches over a season make similar comments.Players say it too, but more rarely.

    I think you’re on a bit of an island with this one.At least with the categorical emphasis that you deployed. Obviously reality is more nuanced than one narrative thread, but sometimes the primary thread is effort level/legs whatever you want to call it.Fragile confidence is another.Goaltending another, albeit that might have confidence in play.

    IIRC this is the 4th youngest team in the NHL.These kids in many cases are still learning professionalism, consistency, resiliency.That’s actually stunning when one considers when this re-build started, 4th youngest.At some point the Oil have to stick with a group and give them a chance to grow up.

    The sad thing is we also have vets like Looch shitting the bed like he did tonight, Normally I like his game, even when most don’t, but tonight was a real stinker.

    JMHO,..I actually thought you were being satirical on the first read, to tell you the truth.

    I didn’t mention anything about the coach saying it. I said the media and the fans. The coach has to say it. Part of his job is to keep the players and their effort accountable.

    Effort matters. Confidence matters. But winning comes first, and engenders those two things.

    And winning comes mostly from having better players, deployed better, playing better systems.

    You can also deploy players more freely, and play more effective systems, if you have smarter, more talented players. It all comes back to talent.

    Poor PK system and personnel -> letting in a lot of goals -> poor confidence on the PK -> even worse PK.

    That’s the order of what happens.

    Obviously effort matters. But the effort level, night to night, and between player to player, is not the widest margin maker in terms of factors that drive results. Just like the effort level isn’t the main driver in getting to the mordern NHL in the first place.

    Personally my theory on the biggest factor of young player’s consistency is that they face wildly different teams, units, and goalies every night.

    You have to learn how to play against everything, and there are some things that some player’s natural tendencies and talents counter easily, or are easily countered by. And that is what it means to actually ’round out your game’.

    But that’s besides the point.

    My main point, and the one I feel is the strongest, is the fact that these systems and results followed the coaching staff here from another, very different, veteran squad.

    SJ and EDM are very different teams, in almost every way.

    But the results are the same and there’s a common denominator, so how can that not be the primary source of the issue?

  79. Wilde says:

    godot10: Blamed everyone but himself.

    Exactly. I was extremely disappointed in his response.

    Even though the wounds were fresh and he was emotional, vehemently displacing his responsibility like that was a tell, that he doesn’t think the structure is the problem in the slightest.

  80. Munny says:

    godot10: Blamed everyone but himself.

    Wonder what he meant by “systems too” then?

  81. Munny says:

    Wilde: I didn’t mention anything about the coach saying it. I said the media and the fans. The coach has to say it. Part of his job is to keep the players and their effort accountable.

    I think you need to read your post again. You pretty clearly defined it as a myth promulgated by media and fans and that it was an absolute insult to players.

    And there’s a reason for this accountability. It’s because effort matters. And lack of it can lose you games.

  82. Mr. D. says:

    It’s well known.
    PK is All about position with the moment of outworking the opponent. Winning a battle..we can’t do it 5×5 so how do we 4×5.
    The players hate the d coach…
    Klef sucks defensively yet gets major pk minutes.
    We have little trade value except 97 and 25.
    The players are in the train to next year.

  83. AsiaOil says:

    godot10: Blamed everyone but himself.

    Pretty much threw everyone else under the bus though. If PC doesn’t gas him tomorrow then you need to gas PC and bring in someone who will. Only thing worse than the goalering this year has been coaching and these men have shown nothing to suggest they are able to fix anything.

  84. Wilde says:

    Munny: I think you need to read your post again. You pretty clearly defined it as a myth promulgated by media and fans and that it was an absolute insult to players.

    And there’s a reason for this accountability. It’s because effort matters.And lack of it can lose you games.

    We’re at a misunderstanding.

    I did define it as a common commentary, and often overstated, when it was voiced by the media and fans.

    You appeared to rebut but saying that the coach said it, too.

    But I wasn’t criticising the coach saying it, I was criticising you saying it.

    And I never said effort doesn’t matter, in fact I explicitly said that it does. In the post. That you’re quoting.

    My point is that it’s monumentally over-attributed to be the deciding factor in games, because it’s easy and it blames the factors that the people are attracted to blaming.

    Funny that blaming lack of effort by the players is the most common analysis that… lacks effort.

    Anyways, again with my main point.

    How is it that out-working the opponent is the largest part of penalty killing when the exact same brand of penalty killing has failed in the exact same area, every season but one that has had a Johnson-McLellan penalty kill structure?

    Did every single unit in every single iteration of every single roster in both organisations get outworked on average?

  85. hunter1909 says:

    godot10: It has only been 20 months.We rehashed trading out of Zach Parise for nearly a decade.The Smyth trade was rehashed for several years.The Gretzky trade…for a generation.

    Don’t forget Schremp. There’s always Rob Schremp.

  86. hunter1909 says:

    AsiaOil: Pretty much threw everyone else under the bus though. If PC doesn’t gas him tomorrow then you need to gas PC and bring in someone who will. Only thing worse than the goalering this year has been coaching and these men have shown nothing to suggest they are able to fix anything.

    You’re an intelligent man. The Oilers are a disaster. What do you think is the main cause, and potential solution?

  87. OriginalPouzar says:

    Yamamoto finishes with a goal and an assist – 5 straight multi-point games – he’s having great 2nd half.

    The points were against Skinner who, by the numbers, had his weakest game since his trade – stopped 21 of 25 in a 4-2 loss.

  88. OriginalPouzar says:

    godot10: Blamed everyone but himself.

    I haven’t listened to the post-game from last night yet, however, the coach has multiple times this year and over his tenure as Oilers head coach referenced the coaching staff not being good enough.

  89. OriginalPouzar says:

    It should be a fun day today in the new blog coming out in a few hours.

    I wonder what subjects will be covered.

    The last week or so were high on Chiarelli vitriol and the Reinhart trade – I predict more of a McLellan vibe today with a bit of Talbot vitriol thrown in.

  90. godot10 says:

    McLellan talked about the players reverting to past bad habits. How can that be? They changed all the players. The only Oilers’ players last night that pre-date McLellan and Chiarelli playing last night were Klefbom, and he only had 77 NHL games and Pakarinen, who had 17 NHL games.

    If this team sucks, it is all on McLellan and Chiarelli.

    He was trying to effectively “blame it on Taylor Hall” last night.

  91. Bobcaygeon says:

    This feels worse than when the Oilers first decided to rebuild and drafted Taylor Hall……..The Oilers at least had forward skill any team would want…. you knew they would get more because the team was just that bad…Patients, with a little hope and the Oilers will turn the corner…..
    Now, that skill has been cleared out…..Replaced by a roster of past NHL teams…..By a management group who critically devalued there own roster……

    Disgusting…..truly disappointing……..

  92. LMHF#1 says:

    godot10:
    McLellan talked about the players reverting to past bad habits.How can that be?They changed all the players.The only Oilers’ players last night that pre-date McLellan and Chiarelli playing last night were Klefbom, and he only had 77 NHL games and Pakarinen, who had 17 NHL games.

    If this team sucks, it is all on McLellan and Chiarelli.

    He was trying to effectively “blame it on Taylor Hall” last night.

    He’s readily admitted he has no answers at this point, and therefore he needs to go.

    A season ticket holder survey arrived in my inbox very early this AM. Not sure if that was preplanned or not (probably was), but they’re going to get a typed out earful from a lot of people after THAT.

  93. Old Timer says:

    Last night the Oilers must have set a record for the most incomplete passes by an NHL team ever. This is a skill they must work on, both giving and receiving.

    Hope Coffey can help.

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