G48 2017-18: Sabres at Oilers

One year ago, the Oilers formula for winning included Connor McDavid’s searing offense, Cam Talbot stopping pucks and the rest of the roster hanging on. In the last 10 games, a stretch that has seen the team go 4-5-1, McDavid has eight points (one goal), the leading goal scorers are Darnell Nurse and Patrick Maroon (both have four), there have been two power-play goals (Leon, JP) and Cam Talbot has a save percentage of .889. Only nine different players have scored a goal in the last 10 games. Incredibly, the team is on a three-game winning streak and have a promising immediate schedule. We’re past burning daylight, the team has taken exactly one forever to come together. Is this recent run true north? We begin to find that answer tonight.

THE ATHLETIC!

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RED RUM, YEAR OVER YEAR

  • January 2016: 4-2-2, goal differential -1 (10 points)
  • January 2017: 5-3-0, goal differential -1 (10 points)
  • January 2018: 4-4-0, goal differential -7 (8 points)

G9 in January 2016 was a 6-4 loss to Tampa Bay which featured a shorthanded winner and an EN goal. G9 in January 2017 was a 4-3 overtime win over the Florida Panthers. The Sabres went to overtime in Calgary last night so the Oilers should have the better boots.

AFTER 48, YEAR OVER YEAR

  • Oilers 15-16: 19-23-5, goal differential -24 (43 points)
  • Oilers 16-17: 25-15-7, goal differential +10 (57 points)
  • Oilers 17-18: 21-23-3, goal differential -18 (45 points)

G48 was a 6-4 loss to the Lightning as above, as the Oilers stumbled toward the end of January (the 15-16 team would win just 12 more games). G48 for the 16-17 team was a 3-2 shootout loss to Nashville. The 16-17 team would win 22 more by the end of the year from this point on. If this year’s team splits the difference (winning 17 games) the club would finish with 38 wins in 2017-18. Honestly, that seems reasonable based on season history and quality of team.

WHAT TO EXPECT FROM JANUARY

  • At home to: Los Angeles, Anaheim (Expected 0-1-1) (Actual 1-1-0)
  • On the road to: Dallas, Chicago, Nashville, Arizona, Vegas (Expected 2-2-1) (Actual 2-3-0)
  • At home to: Vancouver, Buffalo, Calgary (Expected 2-1-0) (Actual 1-0-0)
  • Overall expected result: 4-4-2, 10 points in 10 games
  • Current results: 4-4-0, eight points in eight games

Anyone who tells you they absolutely know which Oilers team will show up tonight is lying. The verbal seems confident and the Saturday game was fun, but who knows what tonight brings?

CENTRAL SCOUTING

The idea of Central is making sure the team hasn’t forgotten or missed someone in their region. In the brilliant Gare Joyce “Heartbreaks” book, he quotes a Western Conference scout on Central:

  • “The fact is that they do the best they can with the resources the league gives them. They give us a guide, not a definitive breakdown. If it were definitive, there’d be a lot of guys out of jobs.”
That’s it, that’s all. If you are treating the CS list as gospel, you’re doing it wrong. I recommend Pronman, Red Line, Black Book and of course Bob McKenzie’s list on Friday. Here’s my list with Central’s rankings.
  1. LD Rasmus Dahlin, Frolunda (SHL). Europe No. 1
  2. R Andrei Svechnikov, Barrie Colts (OHL). North America No. 1
  3. L Filip Zadina, Halifax Mooseheads (QMJHL). North America No. 2
  4. LC Jacob Olofsson, Timra (Allsvenskan). Europe No. 5
  5. LD Ty Smith, Spokane Chiefs (WHL). North America No. 14.
  6. RD Adam Boqvist, Brynas (SuperElite). Europe No. 2
  7. RC Akil Thomas, Niagara Ice Dogs (OHL). North America No. 10
  8. L Brady Tkachuk, Boston University (NCAA)North America No. 3
  9. RD Ryan Merkley, Guelph Storm (OHL). North America No. 21
  10. LD Quinn Hughes, Michigan (NCAA). North America No. 4
  11. L Joel Farabee, U.S. National Development Program (USHL). North America No. 11
  12. R Oliver Wahlstrom, U.S. National Development Program (USHL). North America No. 7
  13. LC Filip Hallander, Timra (Allsvenskan). Europe No. 12.
  14. RD Jett Woo, Moose Jaw Warriors (WHL). North America No. 20
  15. LC Ryan McLeod, Mississauga Steelheads (OHL). North America No. 16
  16. LC Barrett Hayton, SSM Greyhounds (OHL). North America No. 6
  17. RC Rasmus Kupari, Karpat (Sm-Liiga). Europe No. 6
  18. LC Joe Veleno, Drummondville (QMJHL). North America No. 13.
  19. RD Noah Dobson, Acadie-Bathurst Titan (QMJHL). North America No. 8
  20. LC Jesperi Kotkaniemi, Assat (Sm-Liiga). Europe No. 9
  21. RD Evan Bouchard, London Knights (OHL). North America No. 5
  22. LD K’Andre Miller, U.S. National Development Team (USHL). North America No. 31
  23. RD Calen Addison, Lethbridge Hurricanes (WHL). North America No. 34.
  24. R Dominik Bokk, Vajxo Lakers (SuperElite). Europe No. 8
  25. RD Bode Wilde, U.S. National Development Team (USHL). North America No. 22.
  26. RC Cam Hillis, Guelph Storm (OHL). North America No. 59.
  27. LC Phillipp Kurashev, Quebec Remparts (QMJHL). North America No. 68.
  28. LC Milos Roman, Vancouver Giants (WHL). North America No. 40.
  29. L Isac Lundestrom, Lulea (SHL). Europe No. 3
  30. W Samuel Fagemo, Frolunda (SuperElite). Europe No. 40.
  31. LD Jared McIssac, Halifax Mooseheads (QMJHL). North America No. 12.

I am missing (but considered) Serron Noel (NA No. 9); Rasmus Sandin (NA No. 15); Benoit-Oliver Groulx (NA No. 18); Patrick Giles (NA No. 19). Among high ranking Europeans, I have not listed Grigori Denisenko (Euro No. 4) and Adam Ginning (Euro No. 7). Lists are here.

Central doesn’t move much at the top in their final rankings (they were famously stubborn on Angelo Esposito in 2007, dropping him to No. 8; he would go No. 20) but there will be lots of movement. Last year’s big movers were Jason Robertson and Alexandre Texier (last year’s list).

Any of the top 6 on my list would be fabulous for the Oilers. I really like Ty Smith, Simon Boisvert has me interested in tracking Oliver Wahlstrom.

CENTRAL CURIOS

  • The Top 50 NA list features 17 names from the OHL, nine from the QMJHL, just five from the WHL. Low total out west. The USTP (U.S. National development team) has seven names in the top 50, five more from other USHL clubs. Two kids from U.S.high school, two from BCHL, two from NCAA and one from OJHL. That’s 50.
  • Oilers don’t draft the Q heavily, that may change this year with the improved quality.
  • Curtis Douglas, a center for the Windsor Spitfires, is the tallest man in the draft at 6.08.
  • Adam Samuelsson, a defenseman for the U.S. National team, is the heaviest at 240.
  • There are six players from Swe-2 (Allsvenskan) in the Euro top 50. That’s the league that seems to house explosive kids like Elias Pettersson (I had him No. 4 overall, Central had him No. 2 Euro) and I wonder if we see a run on these kids from that emerging league.

LOWDOWN WITH LOWETIDE

A busy morning, we’ll go heavy on the hockey and throw in some football and tennis for good measure. All gets rolling at 10, TSN1260:

  • Jonathan Willis, The Athletic. Jon’s recent posts on mid-season performances reveals plenty and we’ll drill down on several subjects.
  • Steve Kournianos, The Draft Analyst. Central’s list, Steve’s opinions.
  • Scott Cullen, TSN. Wild trade deadline ahead, who is safe in Edmonton, Avs baby, Aussie Open hot!
  • Paul Hamilton, WGR55 Buffalo. The Sabres at the deadline and into summer.

10-1260 text, @Lowetide on twitter. Talk soon!

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493 Responses to "G48 2017-18: Sabres at Oilers"

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  1. OriginalPouzar says:

    Yes – game day, finally!

    With the bye week and then the two full days off between games, I’m just itching to watch some Oiler hockey – moreso given they are playing well right now.

    Chad Johnson played last night in Calgary so I assume we see Lehner tonight – I’m not afraid of crazy eyes.

    Nurse and Larsson were a beast of a pair last game and I look for more of the same from them. I think the bye week did alot to get Larsson healthy and a healthy Larsson is a material player!

    Looking to see if that 2nd line can build on their performance last game. We know Drai can drive his own line, what we need to find out is if he can do it game in and game out. Keep moving those feet Leon!

    Looking for another strong performance from Strome and some building chemistry with Khaira. Strome didn’t cash last game but I thought he played a strong game, was good on the boards, created offence and was a plus player.

    Go Oilers!

  2. OriginalPouzar says:

    I’d like too see Slepy in for Cammy but that might be fantasy!

  3. OriginalPouzar says:

    Is there any chance the organization looks at guys that currently play with our current CHL prospects? Guys like Akil Thomas, Ryan Merkley? I’m guessing that’s not a factor.

    FYI, LT, you have Valeno listed as a SeaDog – he now plays for Drummondville.

  4. OriginalPouzar says:

    John’s article on the d-man yesterday was fantastic.

    Its interesting to see Russell show well in the scoring chance metrics and it was also interesting to see the huge positive when playing with Nurse (I didn’t think that pair meshed when together).

  5. bendelson says:

    Yeah… Oliver Wahlstrom at 12 is a bit of a head scratcher LT.
    Steve Kournianos appears to be a big fan as well as Simon Boisvert.
    A good question for Steve today might be: What doesn’t this kid do extremely well?

  6. hunter1909 says:

    Oilers you hope come out and bomb these perennial losers!

    Eichel is having a hell career to date – McDavid’s leading a charmed life by comparison.

  7. dustrock says:

    I had asked about Boqvist vs Ty Smith for the Oilers, he originally said Smith by a hair, but in his mock draft, he had the Oilers taking Boqvist.

    I take Wahlstrom over Tkachuk, and my last name is Tkachuk.

    Wahlstrom is having a better season at his age than Tkachuk did last year (remember he’s one of the older players in the draft).

    LT – why do you like Ty Smith over guys like Hughes or Dobson or Bouchard?

  8. JimmyV1965 says:

    I rewatched the last game and our defence was pretty ugly. Other than Nurse and Larsson, they all struggled to move the puck out of the dzone. Sekera and Benning were particularly bad. Klef was okay, but not great. They have to get better for any hopes at a playoff run.

    On the plus side, it might have been Nurse’s best game defensively as an Oiler. His puck handling in tight in the dzone was amazing. He routinely broke up sorties with his long stick, and he either skated the puck out or passed it out with possession almost every time.

    Can you play a kid with 160 games of experience 30 minutes a night? You can just see he is brimming with confidence. And that gives me hope for Klef. He has the tools. He just has to regain that swagger and I think he’ll find his game again.

    It will be interesting to see if the lineup changes. I think Davidson should go back in. I would probably sit Benning because he really struggled with the transition game. Sekera might have been even worse, but I’m not sure if it’s wise to sit him.

    Schleppy really needs to play as well. His prolonged stay in the doghouse is damaging to the player and killing his trade value. I’m not sure if he got into an argument with the coach, or what happened, but sitting him in the press box game after game became counter productive a long time ago. Cammy was awful last game as well and could probably use the rest.

    The Sabres beat the Flames last night so I think it’s a good sign for an Oiler win tonight. Go Oil!!

  9. hunter1909 says:

    Hunter1909 Emergency Death March™ Update for January 23, 2018:

    Oilers stinking, terrible start to the season makes for Emergency Death March™; a Contest within a Contest!

    To original 2017-18 Death March™ Players:

    Don’t worry!

    Your game is safe!

    Emergency Death March™ is a brand new game!

    Here’s how You play: simply go to http://www.oilersdeathmarch.com and click ENTER NEW CONTEST

    It’s Easy! Free to enter!

    More prizes for Emergency Death March™ winners…Contest Book will remain open until mid February…until puck drop for games either the Yotes on the 15th or the Bruins on the 20th.

  10. Woogie63 says:

    Nail Yakupov 40gm 9G 5A = 14 points
    Jesse Puljujarvi 30gm 9G 5A = 14 points

  11. OriginalPouzar says:

    JimmyV1965:
    I rewatched the last game and our defence was pretty ugly. Other than Nurse and Larsson, they all struggled to move the puck out of the dzone. Sekera and Benning were particularly bad. Klef was okay, but not great. They have to get better for any hopes at a playoff run.

    On the plus side, it might have been Nurse’s best game defensively as an Oiler. His puck handling in tight in the dzone was amazing. He routinely broke up sorties with his long stick, and he either skated the puck out or passed it out with possession almost every time.

    Can you play a kid with 160 games of experience 30 minutes a night? You can just see he is brimming with confidence. And that gives me hope for Klef. He has the tools. He just has to regain that swagger and I think he’ll find his game again.

    It will be interesting to see if the lineup changes. I think Davidson should go back in. I would probably sit Benning because he really struggled with the transition game. Sekera might have been even worse, but I’m not sure if it’s wise to sit him.

    Schleppy really needs to play as well. His prolonged stay in the doghouse is damaging to the player and killing his trade value. I’m not sure if he got into an argument with the coach, or what happened, but sitting him in the press box game after game became counter productive a long time ago. Cammy was awful last game as well and could probably use the rest.

    The Sabres beat the Flames last night so I think it’s a good sign for an Oiler win tonight. Go Oil!!

    I’d like to get Davidson back in the lineup – he wasn’t at practice yesterday so he may be sick or banged up.

    I would also like to get Slepy in to a game – Cammy struggled with some “rookie mistakes” early in the last game (there was another high risk play at the blueline in addition to the breakaway giveaway) but he played OK in the 2nd half of the game.

    I don’t see the coach making a lineup move after a solid team effort – oh well.

  12. Scungilli Slushy says:

    JimmyV1965: Schleppy really needs to play as well.

    I think he’s done as an Oiler which he is on the trade table. Something has happened behind the curtain IMO, it’s not like every other player has been so much better that he can’t get into the lineup.

    This type of thing needs to stop. I get that some players are more difficult or whatever, but they can’t keep losing out on skill, especially with a player that has Slepy’s tool kit.

    It seems like they want complete submission from players, and that doesn’t work with everybody. Yes the players have to do what they are asked on every team, but maybe they need to learn to use the carrot as well and not just the stick.

    I have no idea what they do, just going by the repeating pattern of torpedoing skilled players and bleeding skill for ‘gamers’ that are not as good at the hockeying. It seems they need to be more nuanced managing personalities.

    If a characters like Gallant and McPhee can take that rag tag group to the top of the league, I think there is something more to be had in motivational skills and maximizing players for the Oilers coaches and management.

  13. dustrock says:

    Guys like Veleno and Merkley seem like they’re getting shafted a bit to me.

  14. Decidedly Skeptical Fan says:

    OriginalPouzar: I’d like to get Davidson back in the lineup – he wasn’t at practice yesterday so he may be sick or banged up.

    I would also like to get Slepy in to a game – Cammy struggled with some “rookie mistakes” early in the last game (there was another high risk play at the blueline in addition to the breakaway giveaway) but he played OK in the 2nd half of the game.

    I don’t see the coach making a lineup move after a solid team effort – oh well.

    JMHO but Slepy has played his last game as an Oiler … will be given away at the deadline if necessary (7th round pick in the 2025 draft). Hope I am wrong but I don’t think so.

    In other news … Drake tearing it up with Connor again tonight. That pairing is on fire. That boat anchor Maroon can’t even hold those two down.

    There. I think I have counterbalanced the OP enthusiasm meter. My sarcasm meter may be pegged though.

  15. Decidedly Skeptical Fan says:

    Scungilli Slushy: I think he’s done as an Oiler which he is on the trade table. Something has happened behind the curtain IMO, it’s not like every other player has been so much better that he can’t get into the lineup.

    This type of thing needs to stop. I get that some players are more difficult or whatever, but they can’t keep losing out on skill, especially with a player that has Slepy’s tool kit.

    It seems like they want complete submission from players, and that doesn’t work with everybody. Yes the players have to do what they are asked on every team, but maybe they need to learn to use the carrot as well and not just the stick.

    I have no idea what they do, just going by the repeating pattern of torpedoing skilled players and bleeding skill for ‘gamers’ that are not as good at the hockeying. It seems they need to be more nuanced managing personalities.

    If a characters like Gallant and McPhee can take that rag tag group to the top of the league, I think there is something more to be had in motivational skills and maximizing players for the Oilers coaches and management.

    I would be willing to trade our two characters plus our first this year for their two characters, providing it happens before the trade deadline. The bleeding has to stop soon or the patient may not survive.

  16. Scungilli Slushy says:

    Woogie63:
    Nail Yakupov40gm 9G 5A = 14 points
    Jesse Puljujarvi30gm 9G 5A = 14 points

    I caught a bit of Nail playing the other day. Still hearing dog whistles IMO, or maybe it’s the bees. In a strong draft year he would have been taken far lower. Not many impact players out of that class.

  17. Lowetide says:

    Decidedly Skeptical Fan: JMHO but Slepy has played his last game as an Oiler

    I would agree. Always a chance of injury forcing but he hasn’t played much since the email.

  18. Scungilli Slushy says:

    Decidedly Skeptical Fan: I would be willing to trade our two characters plus our first this year for their two characters, providing it happens before the trade deadline.The bleeding has to stop soon or the patient may not survive.

    Seconded.

  19. frjohnk says:

    Lowetide: I would agree. Always a chance of injury forcing but he hasn’t played much since the email.

    If the Oilers end up trading the UFA’s like Maroon, Letestu, Cammy for picks, they will need to play Sleppy as the AHL farm has not much to offer.

  20. GMB3 says:

    dustrock:
    Guys like Veleno and Merkley seem like they’re getting shafted a bit to me.

    Veleno is barely over a ppg

  21. GMB3 says:

    Scungilli Slushy: I caught a bit of Nail playing the other day. Still hearing dog whistles IMO, or maybe it’s the bees. In a strong draft year he would have been taken far lower. Not many impact players out of that class.

    It’s easy to say that but imo his numbers in the OHL were far more impressive than svechnikov’s who’s still considered a top 5 pick by most

  22. OmJo says:

    Woogie63:
    Nail Yakupov40gm 9G 5A = 14 points
    Jesse Puljujarvi30gm 9G 5A = 14 points

    He had a respectable 7 goals in his first 20 games, then got demoted to 4th line #BecauseYakupov.

    Idk who lost the Duchene trade worst: Ottawa or Yakupov.

  23. Pescador says:

    frjohnk: If the Oilers end up trading the UFA’s like Maroon, Letestu, Cammy for picks, they will need to play Sleppy as the AHL farm has not much to offer.

    That would make way too much sense to work at all

  24. Woodguy v2.0 says:

    Really good piece by Alex Thomas on which players on this year’s Bruins’ team can be credited to Chiarelli and K.Gretzky.

    http://thesportsdaily.com/the-oilers-rig/peter-chiarelli-keith-gretzky-and-todays-boston-bruins/

    Very fair and balanced.

    For those who won’t click the link, K.Gretzky looks good via the draft (expect for Zorbil and Senyshen imo)

    Peter looks good for the smaller adds,especially college free agents, but his bigger deals have left no value in the org.

    Sounds familiar eh?

  25. jtblack says:

    GMB3: Veleno is barely over a ppg

    I think Veleno is over hyped. He was granted exceptional status and really hasnt lived up to the hype. Wouldnt be surprised to see him slide to bottom of round 1

  26. Woodguy v2.0 says:

    OmJo: He had a respectable 7 goals in his first 20 games, then got demoted to 4th line #BecauseYakupov.

    Idk who lost the Duchene trade worst: Ottawa or Yakupov.

    Duchene has 8 points in his last 7 games.

    I’d love for Chiarelli to buy low on him.

    Long history of being very good then went off the rails after asking for a trade and staying on the team for the seaon + some of this season.

  27. jtblack says:

    Ryan Smyth to be inducted to the Order of Hockey in Canada on June 18 at the Hockey Canada Foundation’s Gala & Golf event in London, Ont

    As WG would say *Clap Clap *

  28. Woogie63 says:

    OmJo: He had a respectable 7 goals in his first 20 games, then got demoted to 4th line #BecauseYakupov.

    Idk who lost the Duchene trade worst: Ottawa or Yakupov.

    Maybe it is Nail destiny to play with Derek Roy?

  29. Woogie63 says:

    Pescador: That would make way too much sense to work at all

    We need to get back the draft picks we lost signing PC and TMac.

    These two picks and the swing and a miss on Reinhart are contributor to the bare pantry

  30. flea says:

    I kind of wonder how the penalty changes have affected the Oilers. Maybe McLellan’s “battle” style worked better when the players could use their sticks more. Also wonder in the equipment changes have affected Talbot – he is a positional goalie.

    Hoping for a win tonight setting up a somewhat big game on Thursday – would be a must win for the Oilers to stay relevant.The Pacific isn’t good, none of the teams are running away with it, and that’s my only hope that the Oilers will sneak into the Pacific 3rd place spot with a low 90s point total, and a first round matchup with the Flames.

  31. texmex says:

    OmJo,

    I watched most of the game last night. Yak is still a liability out there. He has the skill, but man is he all over the place (not in a good way).

  32. OmJo says:

    Woodguy v2.0,

    I would be surprised if the Sens get rid of him, at least this season since they just got him. But if Melnyk wants to cut costs there’s a big one. They gave up quite a bit to get him though.

    Duchene for Strome?

    Woogie63,

    Olympian Derek Roy. Heh. The Yak whisperer, odd as it was.

    texmex,

    Trying to do too much to get back in the top 9? Idk. Haven’t watched the Avs since the Duchene trade so can’t comment on his play.

    Only player in this league that can score 7 in 20 and get demoted to 4th line duty for having a bad game or two.

    He’s never going to be very useful defensively. I think that’s okay, as long as he doesn’t give up more than he gives. Like Eberle.

  33. Scungilli Slushy says:

    GMB3: It’s easy to say that but imo his numbers in the OHL were far more impressive than svechnikov’s who’s still considered a top 5 pick by most

    He was not the wrong pick, but that cohort was weaker than many. Three very good D in Lindholm Trouba and Matta, not one impact forward out of the entire first round, and a bunch of middlings. These players are 5 years out now.

    Not until the third round do any strong players show up again in Parayko and Gostisbehere, also D, no forwards. Weird year IMO.

  34. slopitch says:

    Woodguy v2.0: Peter looks good for the smaller adds,especially college free agents, but his bigger deals have left no value in the org.

    Ottawa paid so much for Duchene that Id have a hard time seeing them sell low just a few months later. I remember on that date of the trade being baffled at the premium they placed on Turris over Duchene and now Colorado has them by the balls because of the 1st they gave up.

    I think Toronto moves on from JVR. Would you look at him if he’d resign at a similar contract to his current? Or are you out on 28+ ufa’s? This would be under the assumption of selling off Maroon at the deadline.

  35. JimmyV1965 says:

    Scungilli Slushy: I think he’s done as an Oiler which he is on the trade table. Something has happened behind the curtain IMO, it’s not like every other player has been so much better that he can’t get into the lineup.

    This type of thing needs to stop. I get that some players are more difficult or whatever, but they can’t keep losing out on skill, especially with a player that has Slepy’s tool kit.

    It seems like they want complete submission from players, and that doesn’t work with everybody. Yes the players have to do what they are asked on every team, but maybe they need to learn to use the carrot as well and not just the stick.

    I have no idea what they do, just going by the repeating pattern of torpedoing skilled players and bleeding skill for ‘gamers’ that are not as good at the hockeying. It seems they need to be more nuanced managing personalities.

    If a characters like Gallant and McPhee can take that rag tag group to the top of the league, I think there is something more to be had in motivational skills and maximizing players for the Oilers coaches and management.

    Ya. The whole Schleppy thing is getting strange. Doesn’t make sense at all. Someone in another thread asked if we should dump Tmac if Coach Q is available. Would be very tempting.

  36. JimmyV1965 says:

    flea:
    I kind of wonder how the penalty changes have affected the Oilers. Maybe McLellan’s “battle” style worked better when the players could use their sticks more. Also wonder in the equipment changes have affected Talbot – he is a positional goalie.

    Hoping for a win tonight setting up a somewhat big game on Thursday – would be a must win for the Oilers to stay relevant.The Pacific isn’t good, none of the teams are running away with it, and that’s my only hope that the Oilers will sneak into the Pacific 3rd place spot with a low 90s point total, and a first round matchup with the Flames.

    I know I’m seeing things through Oiler coloured glasses, but IMO the reffing is so random it’s almost impossible to make any logical connections to game play. I was surfing through a bunch of games last night and I just couldn’t figure out what’s a penalty and what’s not a penalty. The refs will overlook a penalty to one team and call one shortly later against the other team. Frick, I almost pine for playoff reffing. At least you know they’re not calling anything.

  37. trencan says:

    jtblack: I think Veleno is over hyped. He was granted exceptional status and really hasnt lived up to the hype.Wouldnt be surprised to see him slide to bottom of round 1

    Still one of the safest bet to make NHL. I think he was very good at Hlinka Memorial but yes, he has slow progression over the years. Played with pretty bad team during season, had 1 ppg but participated on 37 percent of all St John goals. Mostly assits but majority were first assists.
    Was on the ice only in 23 percent of the oposing team goals. You can see him as playmaker and responsible two way forward. His shooting rate was around 4,8 percent so I expect him to do better.
    He may also be good PK specialist, he killed 9 penalties in one game. Another important factor is his leadership, maybe could be similar to RNH in the future. I personaly have him in my top 10 list for Oilers, most complex C in draft imo.

  38. Crazy Pedestrian says:

    JimmyV1965: Ya. The whole Schleppy thing is getting strange. Doesn’t make sense at all. Someone in another thread asked if we should dump Tmac if Coach Q is available. Would be very tempting.

    Honestly, that would probably be the best thing to happen to the oilers… regardless if they win the lotto or not. Coach Q would do wonders for this team…

  39. OriginalPouzar says:

    OriginalPouzar:
    I’d like too see Slepy in for Cammy but that might be fantasy!

    Fantasy becomes reality!

  40. McSorley33 says:

    In a lost season, what is the thought process behind not playing a 23 year old Sleppy?

    I mean, this ( not playing him ) is increasing his value, right?

  41. commonfan29 says:

    texmex: I watched most of the game last night. Yak is still a liability out there. He has the skill, but man is he all over the place (not in a good way).

    McDavid always knew where he was going, even if he didn’t.

  42. OriginalPouzar says:

    jtblack: I think Veleno is over hyped. He was granted exceptional status and really hasnt lived up to the hype.Wouldnt be surprised to see him slide to bottom of round 1

    He’s dropped big time in the rankings – I think he was thought of as a potential top 5 not that long ago?

  43. Georges says:

    Tom Renney coached the 2011-12 Oilers to a .451 P%. He was fired.

    Ralph Krueger coached the 2012-13 Oilers to a .469 P%. He was fired.

    Todd Nelson took over from Dallas Eakins and coached the 2014-15 Oilers to a .422 P%. He was fired. (Nelson only had Hall for around half of the games he coached.)

    Todd McLellan has coached the Oilers to the following results:

    Season, P%

    15-16, .427
    16-17, .628
    17-18, .479 (so far)

    And he’s mostly untouched because of the love we all have for the GM.

    Let’s say a coach’s job is to get the most out of what he has. Is sub .500 hockey the most that this group of players is capable of? My opinion is that our results with McLellan have been consistently on the low end of the spectrum.

    As a very obvious example, McLellan’s special teams this year are not very special. They net the Oilers around -0.38 goals per game. The PK is 31st and the PP is now 28th.

    That’s not good. What sort of teams get those results?

    Of the 391 teams that have played since 05-06, 14 have done worse than -0.35 goals per game on their special teams. The 17-18 Oilers are one of those teams. Here are the rest along with their coaches.

    Season, Team, Coach(es)

    05-06, WSH, Glen Hanlon
    05-06, CHI, Trent Yawney
    05-06, FLA, Jacques Martin
    05-06, NYI, Brad Shaw, Steve Stirling
    05-06, CBJ, Gerard Gallant
    06-07, STL, Mike Kitchen, Andy Murray
    06-07, PHX, Wayne Gretzky
    08-09, TBL, Rick Tocchet, Barry Melrose
    08-09, TOR, Ron Wilson
    10-11, COL, Joe Sacco
    13-14, FLA, Kevin Dineen, Peter Horachek
    14-15, BUF, Ted Nolan
    16-17, COL, Jared Bednar

    Those teams combined for an overall points % of .420. Going back to 80-81, net goals per game on special teams is quite reasonably (about 0.67) correlated with points %. A lot of teams that are at the very bottom of this metric were expansion teams.

    Whatever you think of the coaches on that list, none of them had long tenures with their teams. They didn’t subsequently turn it around and lead their teams to playoff success. (I think only Andy Murray manged to get his team to the playoffs… where they were swept.)

    (Jared Bednar’s historically bad COL team from last year had a net on special teams of -.378. McLellan’s 17-18 Oilers are at -.383. Bednar being at the helm for a COL turnaround this far into the season is one of the most unusual results I’ve seen in the data.)

    Todd McLellan’s coaching for the Oilers has been, how can I put it… replacement level. His performance in the context he has been given and his reputation are in different area codes. His decision-making and his losing of players has hurt the team. But, hey, his interview skills and his relationship with the media and bloggers have been excellent. There’s that.

    A great coach would figure out what he’s doing wrong, set it right and lead this team to the Finals. Like he was expected to do (last year and this year)… coaches make their impact early in their tenure. And most tenures are brief. For McLellan to (once again) not meet, much less exceed, expectations is not a good outcome. It shouldn’t go unnoticed.

    Let’s get back to the usual suspects when it comes to assessing the flaws of this team.

  44. Woodguy v2.0 says:


    @EdmontonJack
    Slepyshev will play tonight vs Buffalo—Cammalleri scratched. Rest of lineup will look the same.

  45. OriginalPouzar says:

    McSorley33:
    Ina lost season, what is the thought process behind not playing a 23 year old Sleppy?

    I mean, this ( not playing him )is increasing his value, right?

    because the coaching staff has not given up on the season and the coach is trying to win hockey games – they’ve determined that, on many nights, Anton hasn’t shown enough and isn’t helping the team win – he has become a game time decision nightly.

    This is a bit player with limited value and limited ability to increase his value. He was a third round pick 4.5 years ago that has not established himself as an every day NHL player.

    I hope he plays every game for the rest of the year and does establish himself as an every day NHL player – he has another opportunity tonight (and I believe he’ll be playing on a third line that had two players play well last game in Strome and Khaira) – its up to Slep to seize it.

  46. OriginalPouzar says:

    Woodguy v2.0:

    @EdmontonJack
    Slepyshev will play tonight vs Buffalo—Cammalleri scratched. Rest of lineup will look the same.

    As I said a little bit ago – fantasy becomes reality.

    He has an another opportunity to help the team win and earn more playing time.

  47. Scungilli Slushy says:

    Woodguy v2.0:

    @EdmontonJack
    Slepyshev will play tonight vs Buffalo—Cammalleri scratched. Rest of lineup will look the same.

    Ha! I was waiting for that after saying he was done. I hope he has a really strong game and changes everyone’s mind, including his own. Shoot the biscuit and hit the net, skate like your pants are on fire and fore check like your job depends on it.

  48. jake70 says:

    Should have traded Yak after the lockout season, likely his highest value. Would have made for some great threads/posts on this blog had that happened. Leads team in goals as rookie, gets traded 2 months later….lol. The Oilers need to hire a Nostradamus type for drafting.

  49. Woodguy v2.0 says:

    OmJo,

    Duchene for Strome?

    I don’t think his value is that low.

    Unfortunately.

  50. jake70 says:

    Scungilli Slushy: Ha! I was waiting for that after saying he was done. I hope he has a really strong game and changes everyone’s mind, including his own. Shoot the biscuit and hit the net, skate like your pants are on fire and fore check like your job depends on it.

    Cammalleri made some bad give-aways the last couple of games IIRC, doesn’t surprise me.

  51. jtblack says:

    Georges:
    Tom Renney coached the 2011-12 Oilers to a .451 P%. He was fired.

    Ralph Krueger coached the 2012-13 Oilers to a .469 P%. He was fired.

    Todd Nelson took over from Dallas Eakins and coached the 2014-15 Oilers to a .422 P%. He was fired. (Nelson only had Hall for around half of the games he coached.)

    Todd McLellan has coached the Oilers to the following results:

    Season, P%

    15-16, .427
    16-17, .628
    17-18, .479 (so far)

    And he’s mostly untouched because of the love we all have for the GM.

    Let’s say a coach’s job is to get the most out of what he has. Is sub .500 hockey the most that this group of players is capable of? My opinion is that our results with McLellan have been consistently on the low end of the spectrum.

    As a very obvious example, McLellan’s special teams this year are not very special. They net the Oilers around -0.38 goals per game. The PK is 31st and the PP is now 28th.

    That’s not good. What sort of teams get those results?

    Of the 391 teams that have played since 05-06, 14 have done worse than -0.35 goals per game on their special teams. The 17-18 Oilers are one of those teams. Here are the rest along with their coaches.

    Season, Team, Coach(es)

    05-06, WSH, Glen Hanlon
    05-06, CHI, Trent Yawney
    05-06, FLA, Jacques Martin
    05-06, NYI, Brad Shaw, Steve Stirling
    05-06, CBJ, Gerard Gallant
    06-07, STL, Mike Kitchen, Andy Murray
    06-07, PHX, Wayne Gretzky
    08-09, TBL, Rick Tocchet, Barry Melrose
    08-09, TOR, Ron Wilson
    10-11, COL, Joe Sacco
    13-14, FLA, Kevin Dineen, Peter Horachek
    14-15, BUF, Ted Nolan
    16-17, COL, Jared Bednar

    Those teams combined for an overall points % of .420. Going back to 80-81, net goals per game on special teams is quite reasonably (about 0.67) correlated with points %. A lot of teams that are at the very bottom of this metric were expansion teams.

    Whatever you think of the coaches on that list, none of them had long tenures with their teams. They didn’t subsequently turn it around and lead their teams to playoff success. (I think only Andy Murray manged to get his team to the playoffs… where they were swept.)

    (Jared Bednar’s historically bad COL team from last year had a net on special teams of -.378. McLellan’s 17-18 Oilers are at -.383. Bednar being at the helm for a COL turnaround this far into the season is one of the most unusual results I’ve seen in the data.)

    Todd McLellan’s coaching for the Oilers has been, how can I put it… replacement level. His performance in the context he has been given and his reputation are in different area codes. His decision-making and his losing of players has hurt the team. But, hey, his interview skills and his relationship with the media and bloggers have been excellent. There’s that.

    A great coach would figure out what he’s doing wrong, set it right and lead this team to the Finals. Like he was expected to do (last year and this year)… coaches make their impact early in their tenure. And most tenures are brief. For McLellan to (once again) not meet, much less exceed, expectations is not a good outcome. It shouldn’t go unnoticed.

    Let’s get back to the usual suspects when it comes to assessing the flaws of this team.

    Good stuff

  52. Woodguy v2.0 says:

    slopitch: Ottawa paid so much for Duchene that Id have a hard time seeing them sell low just a few months later. I remember on that date of the trade being baffled at the premium they placed on Turris over Duchene and now Colorado has them by the balls because of the 1st they gave up.

    I think Toronto moves on from JVR. Would you look at him if he’d resign at a similar contract to his current? Or are you out on 28+ ufa’s? This would be under the assumption of selling off Maroon at the deadline.

    Agreed on Duchene.

    Maybe I’m just expecting a Melnyk fire sale.

    As long as they didn’t go to long on JvR I’d be ok.

  53. godot10 says:

    Scungilli Slushy: I caught a bit of Nail playing the other day. Still hearing dog whistles IMO, or maybe it’s the bees. In a strong draft year he would have been taken far lower. Not many impact players out of that class.

    There a ton of impact defensemen in that draft. Lindholm, Rielly, Parayko, Trouba, Matta, Gotisbehere, etc ++

    and impact goaltenders, Vasilevshy, Murray, Hellebuyck.

    You are just biasing the year based on the lack of high end forwards. One pays scouts to be able to recognize this.

  54. who says:

    Scungilli Slushy: Ha! I was waiting for that after saying he was done. I hope he has a really strong game and changes everyone’s mind, including his own. Shoot the biscuit and hit the net, skate like your pants are on fire and fore check like your job depends on it.

    He is going to have to blow the doors off. If he is even average he probably sits for 5 games.
    Imagine the pressure he will be feeling tonight. Is this a healthy situation for a player?

  55. OmJo says:

    Woodguy v2.0:

    @EdmontonJack
    Slepyshev will play tonight vs Buffalo—Cammalleri scratched. Rest of lineup will look the same.

    Showing him off for the Duchene trade.

  56. Bag of Pucks says:

    McSorley33:
    Ina lost season, what is the thought process behind not playing a 23 year old Sleppy?

    I mean, this ( not playing him )is increasing his value, right?

    This is why I think the ‘pump & dump’ if it ever truly existed, only exists with teams that are winning.

    Right now, both MacLellan and Chiarelli are under the microscope to win games. TMac is likely not playing Slepy cos he’s doesn’t see him as a player that’s going to best help him win games. Chiarelli may like the idea of the asset getting featured to increase potential trade value, but like MacLellan, if he’s agrees Sleppy isn’t the best choice to help get more Ws in the win column, he’s likely onboard with the current deployment too. Reason being: Pete needs wins just as badly as Todd does atm.

    Now, what if Chiarelli thinks Sleppy should be on the roster and doesn’t agree with TMac’s assessment of the player and the resultant deployment? Well, this is where the fractures start to appear. But it’s important to remember that Peter didn’t draft Sleppy, so he’s not perceived internally as one of Petey’s assets. For that reason, very unlikely that this player becomes ‘the hill you die on’ to address a potential deployment difference of opinion btw GM and HC..

    This is where Anton finds himself. He’s not one of Chiarelli’s guys, and he’s rapidly become ‘not one of TMac’s’ guys.’

    And if they emailed the entire league and there’s no takers, how much would you theoretically have to pump before you can dump in this scenario?

    Funny how much this player is beginning to remind me of the conversations around Anton Lander. Not being able to piss a drop in the bigs. It’s definitely ‘a thing.’

  57. OmJo says:

    who: He is going to have to blow the doors off.If he is even average he probably sits for 5 games.
    Imagine the pressure he will be feeling tonight. Is this a healthy situation for a player?

    Nope.

    But it’s the price you have to pay to be an Oiler if you’re Russian.

    Edit: Russian.

  58. russ99 says:

    A bit concerned tonight may be a trap game, since Buffalo has been on the other end of a few of those lately, and things went really well on Saturday – usually a bellwether of not showing up for a period and a half, hopefully the two days of practice helped.

  59. OmJo says:

    Woodguy v2.0:
    OmJo,

    Duchene for Strome?

    I don’t think his value is that low.

    Unfortunately.

    But they get highly coveted star prospect Cap Space included in the deal. You can’t draft a Cap Space.

  60. OmJo says:

    russ99:
    A bit concerned tonight may be a trap game, since Buffalo has been on the other end of a few of those lately, and things went really well on Saturday – usually a bellwether of not showing up for a period and a half, hopefully the two days of practice helped.

    This team shouldn’t be underestimating other teams. Even if that other team is the Sabres.

    Show up or go home.

  61. bendelson says:

    I see they are showcasing Anton for the impending Sleppy for Girgensons blockbuster!

    Note: Who has an irrational fondness for Zemgus? Bendelson does!

  62. JimmyV1965 says:

    Georges:
    Tom Renney coached the 2011-12 Oilers to a .451 P%. He was fired.

    Ralph Krueger coached the 2012-13 Oilers to a .469 P%. He was fired.

    Todd Nelson took over from Dallas Eakins and coached the 2014-15 Oilers to a .422 P%. He was fired. (Nelson only had Hall for around half of the games he coached.)

    Todd McLellan has coached the Oilers to the following results:

    Season, P%

    15-16, .427
    16-17, .628
    17-18, .479 (so far)

    And he’s mostly untouched because of the love we all have for the GM.

    Let’s say a coach’s job is to get the most out of what he has. Is sub .500 hockey the most that this group of players is capable of? My opinion is that our results with McLellan have been consistently on the low end of the spectrum.

    As a very obvious example, McLellan’s special teams this year are not very special. They net the Oilers around -0.38 goals per game. The PK is 31st and the PP is now 28th.

    That’s not good. What sort of teams get those results?

    Of the 391 teams that have played since 05-06, 14 have done worse than -0.35 goals per game on their special teams. The 17-18 Oilers are one of those teams. Here are the rest along with their coaches.

    Season, Team, Coach(es)

    05-06, WSH, Glen Hanlon
    05-06, CHI, Trent Yawney
    05-06, FLA, Jacques Martin
    05-06, NYI, Brad Shaw, Steve Stirling
    05-06, CBJ, Gerard Gallant
    06-07, STL, Mike Kitchen, Andy Murray
    06-07, PHX, Wayne Gretzky
    08-09, TBL, Rick Tocchet, Barry Melrose
    08-09, TOR, Ron Wilson
    10-11, COL, Joe Sacco
    13-14, FLA, Kevin Dineen, Peter Horachek
    14-15, BUF, Ted Nolan
    16-17, COL, Jared Bednar

    Those teams combined for an overall points % of .420. Going back to 80-81, net goals per game on special teams is quite reasonably (about 0.67) correlated with points %. A lot of teams that are at the very bottom of this metric were expansion teams.

    Whatever you think of the coaches on that list, none of them had long tenures with their teams. They didn’t subsequently turn it around and lead their teams to playoff success. (I think only Andy Murray manged to get his team to the playoffs… where they were swept.)

    (Jared Bednar’s historically bad COL team from last year had a net on special teams of -.378. McLellan’s 17-18 Oilers are at -.383. Bednar being at the helm for a COL turnaround this far into the season is one of the most unusual results I’ve seen in the data.)

    Todd McLellan’s coaching for the Oilers has been, how can I put it… replacement level. His performance in the context he has been given and his reputation are in different area codes. His decision-making and his losing of players has hurt the team. But, hey, his interview skills and his relationship with the media and bloggers have been excellent. There’s that.

    A great coach would figure out what he’s doing wrong, set it right and lead this team to the Finals. Like he was expected to do (last year and this year)… coaches make their impact early in their tenure. And most tenures are brief. For McLellan to (once again) not meet, much less exceed, expectations is not a good outcome. It shouldn’t go unnoticed.

    Let’s get back to the usual suspects when it comes to assessing the flaws of this team.

    How much of this can be laid at the feet of Talbot? This may be simplistic, but his tenure here has been marked by inconsistency, long periods of good goaltending where we win and long periods of bad goaltending where we lose. He has to shoulder some of the blame for the PK as well. The massive disparity between the home PK and the away PK tells me coaching isn’t the issue here. It doesn’t help, of course, that the coach has never had a backup he can trust.

    Yet I’m not sold on Tmac as a coach at all. This team should have one of the best PPs in the league. And that IMO is directly related to coaching. I’m also starting to wonder if Tmac is a loser. Not as a person of course, but as a coach blessed with good teams who simply can’t get them to the next level. I believe he set the tone for the season way back at the Pentincton tourney when he publically expressed his concerns about the team getting off to a bad start. Did this create doubt in his players and start the snowball rolling down the hill?

  63. Bag of Pucks says:

    Georges,

    MacLellan is starting to remind me of a portfolio manager that bought low on Amazon and he’s been coasting on that reputation ever since while the rest of his portfolio’s under-performed.

    Wilson provided MacLellan with some exceptional top tier talent that got excellent regular season results and underwhelming playoff results. Thornton, Marleau, Vlasic, Burns, Pavelski. These were Todd’s ‘Amazon’ core. But, when the level of the competition increases, TMac teams didn’t typically rise to the occasion.

    One under discussed aspect of his approach that I think bears further chin wags is his goalie usage. Goalies have a long history of folding under pressure with this coach.

    Look at last year for example. Refused to trust his backup. Refused to give him reps. Did not build up his confidence through proper reps. Not only does this impair the development and confidence of your backup, it also reinforces in Talbot’s mind that the team is screwed without him. So all the burden and pressure then falls on Talbot.

    Look at how often San Jose goaltenders had worse sv pct in the playoffs vs their regular season performance. MacLellan does not create the best environment for goalies to develop in the regular season, and excel in the postseason. If you’re Todd’s G, it’s all pressure, all the time.

    Maybe we need Fuhr as a goaltending consultant? He knows a thing or two about relieving pressure if there’s ever a doubt. lol And yes, I’m kidding on this last point.

  64. JimmyV1965 says:

    bendelson:
    I see their showcasing Anton for the impending Sleppy for Girgensons blockbuster!

    Note:Who has an irrational fondness for Zemgus?Bendelson does!

    Would love that trade!!!

  65. LMHF#1 says:

    bendelson:
    I see their showcasing Anton for the impending Sleppy for Girgensons blockbuster!

    Note:Who has an irrational fondness for Zemgus?Bendelson does!

    It’s not irrational.

    https://youtu.be/PYSRbeYswGQ

  66. bendelson says:

    LMHF#1

    So good… If Olas comes with him, I’d add a late round pick to get the deal done.

    Edit: Have you had a chance to enjoy their follow-up?
    Keep calm like Kristaps Porzingus.

    https://m.youtube.com/watch?v=JRJIf4HO2Ik

  67. New Improved Darkness says:

    Georges:
    15-16, .427
    16-17, .628
    17-18, .479 (so far)

    (427 + 628 + 479/2) / 2.5 = 517.8

    Almost certainly over 500 if corrected for precise game counts. And he was over 500 in the playoffs last year, too.

    You’d probably be happier if we bumped 50 points from last year to this year, and lost a tight series in the first round last season.

    (427 + (628-100/2) + (479+100)/2) / 2.5 = 517.8

    That would give us 427, 578, 579.

    Same average, whole new narrative.

    Without knowing Chia’s actual roster moves, I think most fans would have taken that deal up front (add in seven playoff wins, I think that proposition would have been a no-brainer).

    We talk all the time about how team confidence multiplies the underlying reality, yet we remain quick to jam in the elective parentheses at the first sign of turbulence.

    Man, circular stress kittens. We think the roster moves suck, and lo, we find our disgust buttressed by masterfully massaged splits, whose own legitimacy derives from aligning with our perception—newly confirmed by cold hard arithmetic—that Chia’s roster moves suck.

    When your narrative is so heavily influenced by arrangement, rather than aggregate results, that’s when prudent minds tend to wait a little longer for the story to stabilize before opening the “next bozo, please” management trap door.

    And if you don’t, it’s multiple seasons before the next coaching team can take uncontested credit for their own accomplishments.

    “Well, he’s sort of doing okay so far, but y’all remember this new bozo came in at the bottom of the last bozo’s abnormal dip.”

    In (traditional) computer chess, the evaluator doesn’t assign a score to a position unless the position is quiescent (not too many extreme captures available in the next few plies).

    If simple rearrangement changes your narrative in a big way, your narrative is not quiescent.

  68. Scungilli Slushy says:

    godot10: There a ton of impact defensemen in that draft.Lindholm, Rielly, Parayko, Trouba, Matta, Gotisbehere, etc ++

    and impact goaltenders,Vasilevshy, Murray, Hellebuyck.

    You are just biasing the year based on the lack of high end forwards.One pays scouts to be able to recognize this.

    Yes, that was my point.

  69. Scungilli Slushy says:

    who: He is going to have to blow the doors off.If he is even average he probably sits for 5 games.
    Imagine the pressure he will be feeling tonight. Is this a healthy situation for a player?

    No but it is pro sports, you do live and die by your production of whatever sort.

  70. prefonmich says:

    Scungilli Slushy,

    I think he is being given a better spot in this game than he has in past appearances this season when he has mostly been saddled with “where offense goes to die 5v5” Letestu. Unlike Caggiula he hasn’t been gifted any (or hardly any) top 6 minutes and hasn’t played many games in a row either to try to build some momentum. I don’t know exactly what he has done to piss off his coach but he has not been given a strong opportunity this year to prove his worth. And once again a player will go for no or little return after years of invested development time. I lay this one at the feet of the coach entirely.

  71. Pescador says:

    New Improved Darkness: (427 + 628 + 479/2) / 2.5 = 517.8

    Almost certainly over 500 if corrected for precise game counts.And he was over 500 in the playoffs last year, too.

    You’d probably be happier if we bumped 50 points from last year to this year, and lost a tight series in the first round last season.

    (427 + (628-100/2) + (479+100)/2) / 2.5 = 517.8

    That would give us 427, 578, 579.

    Same average, whole new narrative.

    Without knowing Chia’s actual roster moves, I think most fans would have taken that deal up front (add in seven playoff wins, I think that proposition would have been a no-brainer).

    We talk all the time about how team confidence multiplies the underlying reality, yet we remain quick to jam in the elective parentheses at the first sign of turbulence.

    Man, circular stress kittens.We think the roster moves suck, and lo, we find our disgust buttressed by masterfully massaged splits, whose own legitimacy derives from aligning with our perception—newly confirmed by cold hard arithmetic—that Chia’s roster moves suck.

    When your narrative is so heavily influenced by arrangement, rather than aggregate results, that’s when prudent minds tend to wait a little longer for the story to stabilize before opening the “next bozo, please” management trap door.

    And if you don’t, it’s multiple seasons before the next coaching team can take uncontested credit for their own accomplishments.

    “Well, he’s sort of doing okay so far, but y’all remember this new bozo came in at the bottom of the last bozo’s abnormal dip.”

    In (traditional) computer chess, the evaluator doesn’t assign a score to a position unless the position is quiescent (not too many extreme captures available in the next few plies).

    If simple rearrangement changes your narrative in a big way, your narrative is not quiescent.

    Exactly

  72. Pescador says:

    McSorley33:
    Ina lost season, what is the thought process behind not playing a 23 year old Sleppy?

    I mean, this ( not playing him )is increasing his value, right?

    Sideburns are to long

  73. ArmchairGM says:

    bendelson:
    I see their showcasing Anton for the impending Sleppy for Girgensons blockbuster!

    Note:Who has an irrational fondness for Zemgus?Bendelson does!

    I was thinking Zemgus would be the return on the Russell trade, seeing as how the Sabres are desperate for NHL-calibre D-men. Slepyshev would work there too, though… who else thinks Girgensons could be the next Maroon?

  74. Woodguy v2.0 says:

    OmJo: But they get highly coveted star prospect Cap Space included in the deal. You can’t draft a Cap Space.

    *strong Weiser clapping*

  75. godot10 says:

    New Improved Darkness: (427 + 628 + 479/2) / 2.5 = 517.8

    Almost certainly over 500 if corrected for precise game counts.And he was over 500 in the playoffs last year, too.

    You’d probably be happier if we bumped 50 points from last year to this year, and lost a tight series in the first round last season.

    (427 + (628-100/2) + (479+100)/2) / 2.5 = 517.8

    That would give us 427, 578, 579.

    Same average, whole new narrative.

    Without knowing Chia’s actual roster moves, I think most fans would have taken that deal up front (add in seven playoff wins, I think that proposition would have been a no-brainer).

    We talk all the time about how team confidence multiplies the underlying reality, yet we remain quick to jam in the elective parentheses at the first sign of turbulence.

    Man, circular stress kittens.We think the roster moves suck, and lo, we find our disgust buttressed by masterfully massaged splits, whose own legitimacy derives from aligning with our perception—newly confirmed by cold hard arithmetic—that Chia’s roster moves suck.

    When your narrative is so heavily influenced by arrangement, rather than aggregate results, that’s when prudent minds tend to wait a little longer for the story to stabilize before opening the “next bozo, please” management trap door.

    And if you don’t, it’s multiple seasons before the next coaching team can take uncontested credit for their own accomplishments.

    “Well, he’s sort of doing okay so far, but y’all remember this new bozo came in at the bottom of the last bozo’s abnormal dip.”

    In (traditional) computer chess, the evaluator doesn’t assign a score to a position unless the position is quiescent (not too many extreme captures available in the next few plies).

    If simple rearrangement changes your narrative in a big way, your narrative is not quiescent.

    .500 in a Bettman point league doesn’t mean what you think it does. .518 is really below the real “.500” hockey which would be around .575 in a Bettman point league.

    .518 is NOT good. It is slightly less than mediocre.

  76. jtblack says:

    godot10: .500 in a Bettman point league doesn’t mean what you think it does..518 is really below the real “.500” hockey which would be around .575 in a Bettman point league.

    .518 is NOT good.It is slightly less than mediocre.

    How about throw year 1 out. And year 3 has yet to be finalized.

    IMO the Oilers will finish well; not well enough for Playoffs, but 85 -90 point well …

    So Todds last 2 years will look Decent.

    This piss poor year has put ENORMOUS PRESSURE on all Management, Coaching staff and to some extent; the Players – for next year.

    Todds record will look good by next December OR TOdd wont be here.

    I think the Oilers Explode Tonight

  77. godot10 says:

    Bednar was hired really late last year (end of August) in Colorado, after Roy quit. And he was coming in from outside the organization.

    You really can’t blame him for last year. It looks like he is cleaning up the mess with some decent coaching.

  78. Pescador says:

    Woodguy v2.0:

    @EdmontonJack
    Slepyshev will play tonight vs Buffalo—Cammalleri scratched. Rest of lineup will look the same.

    somebody wake up Pouzar!
    I swear they were just holding out until he finally gave up

  79. Georges says:

    New Improved Darkness,

    I don’t believe I’ve had the honor up to now.

    Your take, as always, is interesting and requires some thought.

    I didn’t massage the splits. The splits are given to me by the nature of the data; it arrives in seasons. It’s tracked in seasons and reported in seasons. The results of games in one season don’t affect the results for another season. I put in the effort to look up McLellan’s season by season results with the Oilers, that’s all. The arrangement that McLellan has realized, one up season sandwiched between two way downs, is unusual. In this case, the aggregate would mask the variability. If you feel my effort there was masterful, well thank you very much!

    If your take is that an aggregate P% of .517 after 211 games with the team vindicates McLellan or earns him a long rope, I’m not sure what to say about that. Your proposed shifting around of games (fantastic but sadly not possible) would’ve netted us 95 points last season. Not sure if that first round series we played on the road in your imaginary sample path would’ve been tight. Also, not sure what to say about construing a 7-6 playoff record as winning. Technically correct, but… unsatisfyingly short on the winning part, wouldn’t you say? Especially given the team composition (that was the best forward depth on paper in the WC) and the circumstances of its playoff exit (in terms of awful feelings, possibly close to what Sharks’ fans felt after the LAK comeback).

    As for the quiescence search and waiting a little longer for the position to stabilize, it may turn out that the traditional approach to chess couldn’t see the board as well as more recent approaches. That may not be the best way to go. Babcock and the Leafs are following the sample path that you describe. Definitely a whole new narrative that would open up a wider sense of what’s possible. But we don’t have that. We have this. What’s more, practically speaking, any doubt around Babcock would be, can he do it this time? With McLellan, the doubt both inside and outside the locker room would be can he do it at all? Bruce Boudreau has the best aggregate P% of any coach in the 2000’s that’s worked for more than one season. Teams have still moved on from him. And he’s never been south of .500 in P%. Bozo!

    So, the aggregate and sample path arguments seem lacking. But you probably feel the same way about my assessment of the HC’s performance to date. Not sure if you’ve seen my posts the past two Sundays trying to assess McLellan’s coaching career (in the aggregate) and compare it to his peers. I’m trying, man.

  80. Woodguy v2.0 says:

    Georges:
    Tom Renney coached the 2011-12 Oilers to a .451 P%. He was fired.

    Ralph Krueger coached the 2012-13 Oilers to a .469 P%. He was fired.

    Todd Nelson took over from Dallas Eakins and coached the 2014-15 Oilers to a .422 P%. He was fired. (Nelson only had Hall for around half of the games he coached.)

    Todd McLellan has coached the Oilers to the following results:

    Season, P%

    15-16, .427
    16-17, .628
    17-18, .479 (so far)

    And he’s mostly untouched because of the love we all have for the GM.

    Let’s say a coach’s job is to get the most out of what he has. Is sub .500 hockey the most that this group of players is capable of? My opinion is that our results with McLellan have been consistently on the low end of the spectrum.

    As a very obvious example, McLellan’s special teams this year are not very special. They net the Oilers around -0.38 goals per game. The PK is 31st and the PP is now 28th.

    That’s not good. What sort of teams get those results?

    Of the 391 teams that have played since 05-06, 14 have done worse than -0.35 goals per game on their special teams. The 17-18 Oilers are one of those teams. Here are the rest along with their coaches.

    Season, Team, Coach(es)

    05-06, WSH, Glen Hanlon
    05-06, CHI, Trent Yawney
    05-06, FLA, Jacques Martin
    05-06, NYI, Brad Shaw, Steve Stirling
    05-06, CBJ, Gerard Gallant
    06-07, STL, Mike Kitchen, Andy Murray
    06-07, PHX, Wayne Gretzky
    08-09, TBL, Rick Tocchet, Barry Melrose
    08-09, TOR, Ron Wilson
    10-11, COL, Joe Sacco
    13-14, FLA, Kevin Dineen, Peter Horachek
    14-15, BUF, Ted Nolan
    16-17, COL, Jared Bednar

    Those teams combined for an overall points % of .420. Going back to 80-81, net goals per game on special teams is quite reasonably (about 0.67) correlated with points %. A lot of teams that are at the very bottom of this metric were expansion teams.

    Whatever you think of the coaches on that list, none of them had long tenures with their teams. They didn’t subsequently turn it around and lead their teams to playoff success. (I think only Andy Murray manged to get his team to the playoffs… where they were swept.)

    (Jared Bednar’s historically bad COL team from last year had a net on special teams of -.378. McLellan’s 17-18 Oilers are at -.383. Bednar being at the helm for a COL turnaround this far into the season is one of the most unusual results I’ve seen in the data.)

    Todd McLellan’s coaching for the Oilers has been, how can I put it… replacement level. His performance in the context he has been given and his reputation are in different area codes. His decision-making and his losing of players has hurt the team. But, hey, his interview skills and his relationship with the media and bloggers have been excellent. There’s that.

    A great coach would figure out what he’s doing wrong, set it right and lead this team to the Finals. Like he was expected to do (last year and this year)… coaches make their impact early in their tenure. And most tenures are brief. For McLellan to (once again) not meet, much less exceed, expectations is not a good outcome. It shouldn’t go unnoticed.

    Let’s get back to the usual suspects when it comes to assessing the flaws of this team.

    Thanks for that.

    I agree that McLellan and his staff own 100% of the special teams.

    I think the biggest reason he doesn’t take more heat is coach change fatigue.

    That said, when SJS missed the playoffs in his last year and made the SCF in the next year it made you think.

    I would Fire The Mall

  81. Woodguy v2.0 says:

    bendelson:
    I see they are showcasing Anton for the impending Sleppy for Girgensons blockbuster!

    Note:Who has an irrational fondness for Zemgus?Bendelson does!

    Woodguy is not sure how he feels about Bendelson talking about himself in the 3rd person.

  82. OriginalPouzar says:

    This info is from Gregor and, to me, is stunning – in particular how it’s shows his amazing performance without McDavid:

    . I don’t love +/-, but when a player on a losing team is +17 and plays 21 minutes/game against a lot of tougher competition, it stands out. Darnell Nurse is +17 for the Oilers. That is sixth best among D-men in the entire league. He has taken big steps in many areas of his game. He is tied with PK Subban at 18th overall in EV points with 18. He has played 846 minutes at 5×5 and only 279 of them with Connor McDavid, so you can’t say he is piggybacking off of #97. In what has been a very disappointing season Nurse has emerged as one of the few bright spots.

  83. Woodguy v2.0 says:

    Bag of Pucks,

    MacLellan is starting to remind me of a portfolio manager that bought low on Amazon and he’s been coasting on that reputation ever since while the rest of his portfolio’s under-performed.

    That’s a good analogy.

    Comes from powerhouse DET as an assistant to SJS where he added a couple wins on top of what Wilson produced but only for 2 years and not much past that.

    One of the most talented teams in the NHL for years but not much to show for it.

  84. John Chambers says:

    OriginalPouzar:
    This info is from Gregor and, to me, is stunning – in particular how it’s shows his amazing performance without McDavid:

    . I don’t love +/-, but when a player on a losing team is +17 and plays 21 minutes/game against a lot of tougher competition, it stands out. Darnell Nurse is +17 for the Oilers. That is sixth best among D-men in the entire league. He has taken big steps in many areas of his game. He is tied with PK Subban at 18th overall in EV points with 18. He has played 846 minutes at 5×5 and only 279 of them with Connor McDavid, so you can’t say he is piggybacking off of #97. In what has been a very disappointing season Nurse has emerged as one of the few bright spots.

    At the beginning of the season I thought: “At least Nurse’s next contract will only be in the $2.5 – $3.5M range”

    Just prior to the holidays it seemed that he was going to get paid in the $4-$4.5M range that talented young defensemen approaching 200 NHL GP get.

    Now it seems that a 7 x $5.0M deal would be a bargain.

    His agent will be asking for 6 and Peter is not the guy to drive that number down.

  85. OriginalPouzar says:

    Rasanen to play his first game for BC since before the World Juniors. Great stuff, I really liked his game in the tournament – he’s a distant bell for sure but I wouldn’t rule him out as the 3C of the future – years away though.

  86. commonfan29 says:

    I remember when TMac was hired and many of us were optimistic about him fixing Schultz and Yak. Some degree of reclamation seemed a reasonable expectation for a coach of his reputation.

    Instead, complete failure on both counts.

    It’s been awfully disappointing.

  87. Georges says:

    Woodguy v2.0: Thanks for that.

    I agree that McLellan and his staff own 100% of the special teams.

    I think the biggest reason he doesn’t take more heat is coach change fatigue.

    That said, when SJS missed the playoffs in his last year and made the SCF in the next year it made you think.

    I would Fire The Mall

    Thanks, WG!

    You always say a Hall-CMD team would have been great.

    I argued that point with you last year using the 15-16 team results with both CMD and Hall playing. Not good. In fact, so bad that we weren’t even properly competitive, much less contending. (I had so much hope for an upswing after CMD got back from injury.) At the time, my reasoning was, well we have a veteran coach with a strong winning record, so it has to be a massive flaw with personnel.

    Now, I think I’m more it was part personnel, part handling of the personnel. Babcock and the Leafs came close to our points total that year. I looked up his lineup. Wow, were those two teams nearly equals on paper?

    If we’re seeing what a motivated Hall is capable of this year (again, very unusual to see such a spike in scoring given his recent seasons), why did our veteran coach not see that he wasn’t the price to pay for shoring up the defense? Oh well, I’m sure on another day I could argue that Hall wouldn’t be able to accomplish what he is if he stayed here.

    I still wouldn’t be able to shake the feeling that something’s just not right about the HC and his performance with the personnel he’s had to date.

  88. bendelson says:

    Woodguy v2.0: Woodguy is not sure how he feels about Bendelson talking about himself in the 3rd person.

    Bendelson was simply using illeism as a stylistic device to promote self irony and did not intend to cause any distress…

  89. Woodguy v2.0 says:

    bendelson: Bendelson was simply using illeism as a stylistic device to promote self irony and did not intend to cause any distress…

    Woodguy feels better and this Kung Pao Is spicy!

  90. John Chambers says:

    commonfan29:
    I remember when TMac was hired and many of us were optimistic about him fixing Schultz and Yak. Some degree of reclamation seemed a reasonable expectation for a coach of his reputation.

    Instead, complete failure on both counts.

    It’s been awfully disappointing.

    Chia has made some costly decisions, but weighed against the awful defense he inherited, I’m willing to give the guy another offseason. See what he’s able to parlay at the trade deadline, and how he plans to remedy the roster imbalance going into next year. I would restrict him from trading a Klefbom or a Nuge, and suggest that it’s playoffs or bust in 2019 for Mr Chiarelli to remain in his chair.

    I don’t think we can afford to ‘wait and see’ any longer with the coaching staff, however. As Godot points out, the winning percentage is way too low, and it’s clear that player development and special teams are costing the organization in a big way. McClellan basically needs to have the ship righted over the coming 20 games. Either we’re close to a playoff position by the end of February, or we need to plan a new approach with a new staff for next season.

  91. jtblack says:

    Connors Assault on his 2nd Art Ross begins tonight.

    8 pts back with 35 to go.

    My guess is he will need 55 Points down the stretch.

  92. Woodguy v2.0 says:

    Georges: Thanks, WG!

    You always say a Hall-CMD team would have been great.

    I argued that point with you last year using the 15-16 team results with both CMD and Hall playing. Not good. In fact, so bad that we weren’t even properly competitive, much less contending. (I had so much hope for an upswing after CMD got back from injury.) At the time, my reasoning was, well we have a veteran coach with a strong winning record, so it has to be a massive flaw with personnel.

    Now, I think I’m more it was part personnel, part handling of the personnel. Babcock and the Leafs came close to our points total that year. I looked up his lineup. Wow, were those two teams nearly equals on paper?

    If we’re seeing what a motivated Hall is capable of this year (again, very unusual to see such a spike in scoring given his recent seasons), why did our veteran coach not see that he wasn’t the price to pay for shoring up the defense? Oh well, I’m sure on another day I could argue that Hall wouldn’t be able to accomplish what he is if he stayed here.

    I still wouldn’t be able to shake the feeling that something’s just not right about the HC and his performance with the personnel he’s had to date.

    In the 15/16 season Hall and McDavid played 70 minutes together.

    They got 56% of the shots and 60% of the goals together.

    Past that, in the 15/16 season:

    McDavid ON GF% 50.7
    McDavid OFF GF% 40.4

    Hall ON GF% 51.8
    Hall OFF GF% 40.0

    Neither Hall or McDavid ON GF% 33.9%

    Out of the many things wrong with that team, those two don’t number among them.

    The fact that Peter thought this team needed a RHD so bad that Hall was expendable is beyond idiotic.

  93. godot10 says:

    OriginalPouzar:
    This info is from Gregor and, to me, is stunning – in particular how it’s shows his amazing performance without McDavid:

    . I don’t love +/-, but when a player on a losing team is +17 and plays 21 minutes/game against a lot of tougher competition, it stands out. Darnell Nurse is +17 for the Oilers. That is sixth best among D-men in the entire league. He has taken big steps in many areas of his game. He is tied with PK Subban at 18th overall in EV points with 18. He has played 846 minutes at 5×5 and only 279 of them with Connor McDavid, so you can’t say he is piggybacking off of #97. In what has been a very disappointing season Nurse has emerged as one of the few bright spots.

    Many many people wanted to trade Nurse last year. Now we hear crickets about that.

  94. Extend Russell says:

    Halls contract is up in the 19/20 season.
    I wonder if his renewed vigor and scoring touch wasn’t just from his agent reminding him of that.
    Last year he was his usual uninspired hurt for 10-15 game self .

    I also think Strome is a decent hockey player. He could break out a bit this game .
    Lets f@&)ing go boys
    Need this win

  95. anjinsan says:

    Colorado’s 10-0 march comes in the wake of Sakic’s Duchene trade. The only player from the trade who is currently playing is Girard, but clearly Duchene was hampering chemistry. Going forward, Sakic has lot’s of assets in store. Pretty constructive, that Joe.

  96. Side says:

    Extend Russell:
    Last year he was his usual uninspired hurt for 10-15 game self .

    Usual uninspired self? I’m guessing Hall’s point production was poorer last year than this year, because he was playing on a team that placed 27th last year compared to a team that’s 13th this year.

    It’s like.. saying McDavid is playing uninspired this year because his point total doesn’t match where he was last at this point last year.

  97. Extend Russell says:

    Side,

    What about the year previous to last ?
    When McDavid was hurt Hall had the responsibility to carry the teams offense and iirc his point totals were quite pedestrian after the as break.

    I like Hall. But I won’t be remembering him as some elite talent along the lines of Mathews or McDavid. When the team needed him to preform the most he was deafeningly quiet. Also I heard he liked to sacrifice small animals at night clubs around the city so who needs that guy ..

  98. Lowetide says:

    Woodguy v2.0: Woodguy feels better and this Kung Pao Is spicy!

    The Jerk Store has a steady supply of the whole damned bunch of you and Lowetide says music!

  99. Woodguy v2.0 says:

    Side: Usual uninspired self? I’m guessing Hall’s point production was poorer last year than this year, because he was playing on a team that placed 27th last year compared to a team that’s 13th this year.

    It’s like.. saying McDavid is playing uninspired this year because his point total doesn’t match where he was last at this point last year.

    Check out this post: http://lowetide.ca/2018/01/23/g48-2017-18-sabres-at-oilers/#comment-710618

  100. Woodguy v2.0 says:

    Lowetide: The Jerk Store has a steady supply of the whole damned bunch of you and Lowetide says music!

    These pretzels are making ME THiRSTY!

  101. Woodguy v2.0 says:

    Side: Usual uninspired self? I’m guessing Hall’s point production was poorer last year than this year, because he was playing on a team that placed 27th last year compared to a team that’s 13th this year.

    It’s like.. saying McDavid is playing uninspired this year because his point total doesn’t match where he was last at this point last year.

    Here’s the great part.

    Hall’s point production was lower than normal that year (playing significant time with 4th liners after the trade deadline can do that to you)

    BUT!!!! His GF% was still excellent.

    That means…..

    *cues up Won’t get fooled again*

    *puts on shades*

    His play away from the puck was great.

    YEAAAAAAAAAHHHH!!!!!

  102. Scungilli Slushy says:

    Woodguy v2.0: Woodguy feels better and this Kung Pao Is spicy!

    Scungilli Slushy wishes the Woodguy and the Bendelaon would speak in the fourth person and don’t put Scungilli in your Kung Pao. Please. Even spicy.

  103. Scungilli Slushy says:

    jtblack:
    Connors Assault on his 2nd Art Ross begins tonight.

    8 pts back with 35 to go.

    My guess is he will need 55 Points down the stretch.

    That is one outrageous points production the Oilers can pull off. The .740 points % ya no.

  104. Scungilli Slushy says:

    Woodguy v2.0: In the 15/16 season Hall and McDavid played 70 minutes together.

    They got 56% of the shots and 60% of the goals together.

    Past that, in the 15/16 season:

    McDavid ON GF% 50.7
    McDavid OFF GF% 40.4

    Hall ON GF% 51.8
    Hall OFF GF% 40.0

    Neither Hall or McDavid ON GF% 33.9%

    Out of the many things wrong with that team, those two don’t number among them.

    The fact that Peter thought this team needed a RHD so bad that Hall was expendable is beyond idiotic.

    Expendable or refused the barber’s chair #oilersdeepstate?

    Not many old courtesans left in the palace these days. Bad wigs.

  105. hunter1909 says:

    Extend Russell: When the team needed him to preform the most he was deafeningly quiet.

    With all due respect, since when exactly after Christmas during any time Hall was around were there any meaningful games?

  106. Scungilli Slushy says:

    hunter1909: With all due respect, since when exactly after Christmas during any time Hall was around were there any meaningful games?

    Fantastic point. Not bad for a muscle car cruisin’ guy.

    Winning culture. What is that? Is it an attitude that leads to winning, or a team that has a good enough group of players to win (including work ethic) and a coach that plays to their strengths as they evolve?

    Has playing vets on the farm team taught the newbies how to win by watching from the bench or East Coast League?

  107. Dicky94 says:

    hunter1909,

    It was actually Halloween.

  108. Side says:

    Extend Russell:
    Side,

    What about the year previous to last ?
    When McDavid was hurt Hall had the responsibility to carry the teams offense and iirc his point totals were quite pedestrian after the as break.

    I like Hall. But I won’t be remembering him as some elite talent along the lines of Mathews or McDavid. When the team needed him to preform the most he was deafeningly quiet. Also I heard he liked to sacrifice small animals at night clubs around the city so who needs that guy ..

    Woodguy already covered Hall’s contribution in that season you mentioned above.

    I will never understand why people expect a team’s offensive production to be the responsibility of one player. Hall plays on one line, and the line he plays on scores more goals than the opposition he faces.

    What were your expectations of Hall that season? To double his offensive output because McDavid went down? No, he was already doing his part and more. As he has typically done every year with the Oilers. It’s up to the other lines to step up in McDavid’s absense. Better yet, it’s up to the GM to bring in better players then.. a large chunk of that 2015-2016 roster.

  109. Todd Macallan says:

    Lowetide: The Jerk Store has a steady supply of the whole damned bunch of you and Lowetide says music!

    The ocean called, they’re running out of Bookje.

  110. Side says:

    Woodguy v2.0: Here’s the great part.

    Hall’s point production was lower than normal that year (playing significant time with 4th liners after the trade deadline can do that to you)

    BUT!!!! His GF% was still excellent.

    That means…..

    *cues up Won’t get fooled again*

    *puts on shades*

    His play away from the puck was great.

    YEAAAAAAAAAHHHH!!!!!

    Did you just Horatio me without the use of a pun in your punchline?

    That should be a crime!

  111. hunter1909 says:

    Dicky94:
    hunter1909,

    It was actually Halloween.

    I know it’s not supposed to be funny, but this is just really funny on so many levels.

  112. hunter1909 says:

    Side: What were your expectations of Hall that season? To double his offensive output because McDavid went down? No, he was already doing his part and more. As he has typically done every year with the Oilers. It’s up to the other lines to step up in McDavid’s absense. Better yet, it’s up to the GM to bring in better players then.. a large chunk of that 2015-2016 roster.

    Oilers are perpetually run as if the regular season is a joke – the playoffs mean everything which is a great thing until you either run out of players and miss altogether like the Oilers have done…

  113. OmJo says:

    Extend Russell:
    Halls contract is up in the 19/20 season.
    I wonder if his renewed vigor and scoring touch wasn’t just from his agent reminding him of that.
    Last year he was his usual uninspired hurt for 10-15 game self .

    I also think Strome is a decent hockey player. He could break out a bit this game .
    Lets f@&)ing go boys
    Need this win

    Lol as if he decides to get injured unless inspired to stay healthy.

  114. Lowetide says:

    For The Athletic: Central scouting and where the Oilers shop for talent

    https://theathletic.com/220089/2018/01/23/lowetide-central-scouting-and-where-the-oilers-shop-for-talent/

  115. Wilde says:

    I see that it’s been mentioned here already, but I’ll ask this again now that more are in attendance:

    The Blackhawks are looking like odd man out in the central, courtesy of a Corey Crawford injury and a misfortunate-beekeeper led 10 game winning streak.(just kidding)

    Quenneville is under contract still, but has been at odds with upper management since they fired his boy Kitchen, a move that would be in rudimentary symmetry with a hypothetical scenario where Chia fires Woodcroft or Johnson.

    They may decide to part ways, there are already rumblings of it in Friedmans 30 thoughts.

    My question is to fans who are in support of keeping Todd McLellan for another season:

    Does Coach Q’s availability change your view?

  116. hunter1909 says:

    It looks like JP won’t have a 2nd breakout game in a row but wow he’s really starting to come on isn’t he?

  117. hunter1909 says:

    Wilde: My question is to fans who are in support of keeping Todd McLellan for another season:
    Does Coach Q’s availability change your view?

    Only if Paul Coffey okays it, lol

  118. leadfarmer says:

    Pescador: somebody wake up Pouzar!
    I swear they were just holding out until he finally gave up

    Notice no pouzar today? I think we will learn the truth shortly. They were forced to play Sleppy at gunpoint because of a fan.

  119. Confused says:

    We need a coaching change regardless……

    Apart from last year’s PP endless bizarre decisions

    Lucic 3-on-3 will go to the grave with me.

  120. frjohnk says:

    leadfarmer: They were forced to play Sleppy at gunpoint because of a fan.

    This made me chuckle.

  121. Side says:

    hunter1909: Oilers are perpetually run as if the regular season is a joke – the playoffs mean everything which is a great thing until you either run out of players and miss altogether like the Oilers have done…

    What do mean run out of players? They had a pantry full of quality players, the Will Actons and Ryan Jones’! But it was Taylor Hall’s fault… clearly.. (sarcasm off)

  122. Scungilli Slushy says:

    Wilde:
    I see that it’s been mentioned here already, but I’ll ask this again now that more are in attendance:

    The Blackhawks are looking like odd man out in the central, courtesy of a Corey Crawford injury and a misfortunate-beekeeper led 10 game winning streak.(just kidding)

    Quenneville is under contract still, but has been at odds with upper management since they fired his boy Kitchen, a move that would be in rudimentary symmetry with a hypothetical scenario where Chia fires Woodcroft or Johnson.

    They may decide to part ways, there are already rumblings of it in Friedmans 30 thoughts.

    My question is to fans who are in support of keeping Todd McLellan for another season:

    Does Coach Q’s availability change your view?

    Hmm. I am no expert on the difference in their coaching styles. I do know that Q has rolled with the salary cap waves as the roster turned over yearly because of it.

    However he had a more experienced core and their D core were well established in Keith Hjarmalsson and Seabrook able to carry partners well enough at least until recently.

    Would he do better over time beyond the bump from a change that gets everyone motivated particularly because they want to keep their spot?

    I’m not sure that is clear. He is also a strict coach and has said how he does it lies in great part to Toews not allowing anyone off the path like Messier once did.

    I do think the Oilers need to change/grow because they keep running into the same issues with not getting enough out of prospects, and roster players all at the same time. Even last year they had deeper issues, they won a lot of games they didn’t clearly outplay the loser.

    I have said before McLellan ran a different style with team NA and they did better than expected but maybe that worked because of the talent level he was working with on an all star team.

  123. Wilde says:

    Lowetide:
    For The Athletic: Central scouting and where the Oilers shop for talent

    https://theathletic.com/220089/2018/01/23/lowetide-central-scouting-and-where-the-oilers-shop-for-talent/

    This is a good little piece.

    I think they’ll go for Ty Smith if both he and Boqvist are available and they’re going for defensemen, based on Chiarelli and K. Gretzky’s history selecting defensemen in the early rounds.

  124. Lowetide says:

    Wilde: This is a good little piece.

    I think they’ll go for Ty Smith if both he and Boqvist are available and they’re going for defensemen, based on Chiarelli and K. Gretzky’s history selecting defensemen in the early rounds.

    I agree.

  125. JimmyV1965 says:

    Wilde:
    I see that it’s been mentioned here already, but I’ll ask this again now that more are in attendance:

    The Blackhawks are looking like odd man out in the central, courtesy of a Corey Crawford injury and a misfortunate-beekeeper led 10 game winning streak.(just kidding)

    Quenneville is under contract still, but has been at odds with upper management since they fired his boy Kitchen, a move that would be in rudimentary symmetry with a hypothetical scenario where Chia fires Woodcroft or Johnson.

    They may decide to part ways, there are already rumblings of it in Friedmans 30 thoughts.

    My question is to fans who are in support of keeping Todd McLellan for another season:

    Does Coach Q’s availability change your view?

    Geez, that would be a very tempting proposition. Q seems to have a knack for mixing up his lines and getting the most out of his young guys and bubble guys like Panik. You wonder what he could do with guys like the Drake, Schleppy, Benning and Khaira.

  126. OmJo says:

    Wilde:
    I see that it’s been mentioned here already, but I’ll ask this again now that more are in attendance:

    The Blackhawks are looking like odd man out in the central, courtesy of a Corey Crawford injury and a misfortunate-beekeeper led 10 game winning streak.(just kidding)

    Quenneville is under contract still, but has been at odds with upper management since they fired his boy Kitchen, a move that would be in rudimentary symmetry with a hypothetical scenario where Chia fires Woodcroft or Johnson.

    They may decide to part ways, there are already rumblings of it in Friedmans 30 thoughts.

    My question is to fans who are in support of keeping Todd McLellan for another season:

    Does Coach Q’s availability change your view?

    Once upon a time I favoured Todd McLellan over Mike Babcock.

    Fool me once…

    If Joel Quinville is available you hire him no matter how many 2nd round picks it takes. IMO.

    Edit: But then again, I still prefer Krueger or Nelson over Todd McLellan.

  127. OmJo says:

    I don’t usually offer life advice, but my tongue is telling me to never advise anybody buy Trophy peanuts. Ever. It says “roasted with sea salt” but there is more salt in this can of peanuts than every sea on earth combined.

  128. Wilde says:

    Also for anyone who’s read my babbling about our fourth unit lately, in my ramblings I mentioned BUF as one of the teams with a poorer one.

    Behold, Johan Larsson:

    7GF, 27GA.

    -20 5v5 GD.

    A horrifying 934 PDO(largely a result of 2% shooting), and buried in defensive zone faceoffs, but my goodness, pressbox this man.

  129. OmJo says:

    NHL Coach Poll by MacKenzie

    Goalie Interference
    Keep it: 11; Can it: 2; Modify it: 10

    Offside Calls
    Keep it: 2; Can it: 7; Modify it: 14

    Is General Disappointment one of the two who still likes the ridiculous offside rule as is?

  130. OmJo says:

    Smytty honoured by Order of Hockey in Canada.

  131. NYC-Back-to-Tokyo Oil (Gentleman Backpacker) says:

    We think the refs are bad against the Oil but they just utterly hosed the Devils vs the Bruins

  132. OmJo says:

    NYC-Back-to-Tokyo Oil (Gentleman Backpacker):
    We think the refs are bad against the Oil but they just utterly hosed the Devils vs the Bruins

    Because Taylor Hall doesn’t work to improve his relationships with the referees during the summer.

  133. Wilde says:

    NYC-Back-to-Tokyo Oil (Gentleman Backpacker):
    We think the refs are bad against the Oil but they just utterly hosed the Devils vs the Bruins

    Watching this game as well.

    McAvoy would be the unicorn Dman Calder winner if Barzal wasn’t around.

    They’re a completely different team without him.

  134. JD_Wry says:

    Confused: Lucic 3-on-3 will go to the grave with me.

    Hey – he was just playing the hunch.

  135. Wilde says:

    OmJo: Because Taylor Hall doesn’t work to improve his relationships with the referees during the summer.

    One of my favourite moments of the 15-16 season was when we were getting hosed in a game vs LAK with the season hanging by a thread, puke, and McDavid had his incredibly-giffable subdued reaction to the bogus offside, where only moments later Hall skates by with exactly none of his teammate’s restraint.

  136. NYC-Back-to-Tokyo Oil (Gentleman Backpacker) says:

    OmJo: Because Taylor Hall doesn’t work to improve his relationships with the referees during the summer.

    Taylor Hall is uninspired to be healthy this game so he is taking a pass so he has more time to metastasize in the visiting locker room.

  137. OmJo says:

    Yak skating back and prevented a breakaway by Byron.

  138. OmJo says:

    TSN is trying so hard to sell Drouin to Habs fans lol

  139. OmJo says:

    MacKinnon is a fun player to watch.

    Not McDavid fun, but fun nonetheless.

  140. hunter1909 says:

    OmJo:
    I don’t usually offer life advice, but my tongue is telling me to never advise anybody buy Trophy peanuts. Ever. It says “roasted with sea salt” but there is more salt in this can of peanuts than every sea on earth combined.

    “Trophy” seems like an odd choice for the name of a peanut company.

  141. OriginalPouzar says:

    Hopefully Slepy can run with his opportunity tonight and earn another game.

    His linemates have been playing well – its up to him to be a positive contributor.

  142. OmJo says:

    hunter1909: “Trophy” seems like an odd choice for the name of a peanut company.

    That definitely should have been the first sign.

    But they were $2.99 a can. The second sign? I’m trying to budget.

    Don’t cheap out on peanuts. Get the good stuff or don’t get anything.

  143. OmJo says:

    G’Oilers!

  144. NYC-Back-to-Tokyo Oil (Gentleman Backpacker) says:

    hunter1909: “Trophy” seems like an odd choice for the name of a peanut company.

    No less relevant than naming an ice hockey team the ‘Flames.’

    ‘We melt the ice so we can’t play. ‘

    Never mind the actual history of being named for a Civil War burning of a city.

    When I was photographing the tsunami-ravaged coasts of Tohoku I found out through a poster in a window that the local rugby team in the town of Kamaishi was called the Seawaves and had a big wave logo. Fucking tragic prophesy. But they would never go and name the team the Tsunami after the fact.

    Guess it’s the difference between 100 years ago and ‘too soon’

    but yeah, trophy peanuts and ice hockey flames.

  145. NYC-Back-to-Tokyo Oil (Gentleman Backpacker) says:

    OmJo: That definitely should have been the first sign.

    But they were $2.99 a can. The second sign? I’m trying to budget.

    Don’t cheap out on peanuts. Get the good stuff or don’t get anything.

    always get unsalted nuts. Mix in a little chili powder and some other spices and shake up the can and leave it while. They will taste better and be healthier.

  146. Wilde says:

    Rough shift for 27. Missed the puck on a pass, missed the puck around the boards, finally got it and fired a tape-to-tape giveaway.

  147. Munny says:

    Caggiula had more options there than flipping that flapjack.

  148. Lowetide says:

    Nice tip by Caggiula there on the Sekera shot.

  149. JD_Wry says:

    I fear for Lil Nuge if the Oilers win a bunch of games while he’s out.

  150. OmJo says:

    NYC-Back-to-Tokyo Oil (Gentleman Backpacker): always get unsalted nuts. Mix in a little chili powder and some other spices and shake up the can and leave itwhile. They will taste better and be healthier.

    Good advice, I would never considered doing that.

  151. Wilde says:

    Strong reintroduction so far by Slepyshev.

  152. Wilde says:

    Great far side low to high pass by Caggiula there to keep the 6v5 alive.

  153. Extend Russell says:

    Side,

    And those that remember well, remember we were poised to fight for a playoff spot. The core of ebs hall and Nuge couldn’t get it done.
    Meanwhile the defense was languishing and leaking sa …

    Fuck Hall
    And ebs too

    Go Oilers

  154. Munny says:

    Wasn’t much in that hold. The ref apparently can see straight through Maroon’s body though and we go on the first Dysfunctional Play.

  155. Spooky Lynx says:

    Jesse seems reluctant to throw a hit, preferring to try to make a play with his stick instead. Seen it a couple times already tonight. Likely an easy fix.

  156. OriginalPouzar says:

    Unlike practice yesterday, Nurse is on PP1.

  157. Sighduck says:

    Yawn, No shots below the dots for the Oilers on the pp, fringe play, turnovers, drop passes, business as usual…

  158. Wilde says:

    Spooky Lynx:
    Jesse seems reluctant to throw a hit, preferring to try to make a play with his stick instead. Seen it a couple times already tonight. Likely an easy fix.

    I prefer Jesse’s stickchecking, actually. His rangy pokechecks result in turnovers fairly often, and were the main playmaker in at least 2 of his 3 scoring plays last game.

  159. Sighduck says:

    First period isn’t even over and the Oilers have already lost way too many 1 on 1 battles not to mention demonstrate their inability to defend the cycle down low.

  160. Munny says:

    The “home-cooked” PK goes to work….

  161. NYC-Back-to-Tokyo Oil (Gentleman Backpacker) says:

    Kimberley Clarke could win cash on Safeway Score and Win. If she doesn’t at least she will have Kleenex handy to cry away her sorrows with.

  162. Munny says:

    Natch.

    Reinharts… sticking it to the Oilers for over 30 years.

  163. Sighduck says:

    Spooky Lynx,

    Yeah, my eye tells me he prefers to play the stick more than the body but he has shown he can be physical from time to time.

  164. Sighduck says:

    Fuck, who ordered the ‘special teams’ special

  165. LMHF#1 says:

    Decent shot from the middle of the ice with a screen.

    Not rocket surgery.

  166. leadfarmer says:

    Time to add another 80s older player to the coaching staff

  167. OriginalPouzar says:

    Brossoit has made all 30 saves through two period as the Condors take a 1-0 lead to the third.

  168. Sighduck says:

    I heard Oilers with 6 giveaways on the buffalo feed but I think they meant Lucic with 6, he has been brutal.

  169. Pescador says:

    NYC-Back-to-Tokyo Oil (Gentleman Backpacker): always get unsalted nuts. Mix in a little chili powder and some other spices and shake up the can and leave itwhile. They will taste better and be healthier.

    I always look for healthier snacks while I’m guzzling 7-8 beers,
    helps me keep this slim figure

  170. OmJo says:

    OriginalPouzar:
    Brossoit has made all 30 saves through two period as the Condors take a 1-0 lead to the third.

    Good for him!

    Also, 30 shots against in 40 minutes?????

  171. wood99 says:

    When are they going to remove letestu from the special teams. Can’t skate ,can’t win a one on one battle. Our coaching frustrates the hell out of me with their stubbornness. We are the worst in the league and yet we continue to play the same way with the same players on our special teams.

  172. Sighduck says:

    leadfarmer:
    Time to add another 80s older player to the coaching staff

    Messier is the smart bet but the dark horse is Sather in some capacity to management.

  173. OmJo says:

    That’s the only thing Lucic does better than Pouliot 😛

  174. OmJo says:

    Sighduck: Messier is the smart bet but the dark horse is Sather in some capacity to management.

    Grant Fuhr for goalie skills coach.

  175. Munny says:

    Gotta get the puck to the net there Cags

  176. Réal Goudenyéu says:

    Sighduck:
    I heard Oilers with 6 giveaways on the buffalo feed but I think they meant Lucic with 6, he has been brutal.

    Yeah I like looch but he’s been shit tonight so far.

    The oilers are mailing it in so far

  177. jake70 says:

    Lucic with the great hit….then a beautiful pass to the Buffalo point man….

  178. OriginalPouzar says:

    That was the quietest period McDavid has had in his pro career (well, i missed a few periods in late December but I’m pretty sure) – small rush up the right side board with a minute left – that’s it.

    PP – 0/1

    PK – 0/1

    There is the lead right there.

    Need more intensity in the 2nd period.

  179. Harpers Hair says:

    NYC-Back-to-Tokyo Oil (Gentleman Backpacker): always get unsalted nuts. Mix in a little chili powder and some other spices and shake up the can and leave itwhile. They will taste better and be healthier.

    A couple of glugs of Worchestershire sauce does wonders too

  180. Surrey Oiler says:

    OriginalPouzar:
    Brossoit has made all 30 saves through two period as the Condors take a 1-0 lead to the third.

    An AHL goalie doing well…an NHL goalie he shall NEVER be!

  181. OmJo says:

    Surrey Oiler: An AHL goalie doing well…an NHL goalie he shall NEVER be!

    Not on the Oilers maybe.

  182. NYC-Back-to-Tokyo Oil (Gentleman Backpacker) says:

    Pescador: I always look for healthier snacks while I’m guzzling 7-8 beers,helps me keep this slim figure

    I didn’t mean healthier as in weight but too much sodium no bueno

  183. Material pocession says:

    wood99:
    When are they going to remove letestu from the special teams. Can’t skate ,can’t win a one on one battle. Our coaching frustrates the hell out of me with their stubbornness. We are the worst in the league and yet we continue to play the same way with the same players on our special teams.

    I don’t understand this either. Letestu is a terrible penalty killer. Kassian isn’t any better. That power play is predictable and slow. Lucic cannot puck handle yet he’s out there on the PP. It’s very frustrating.

  184. OmJo says:

    Harpers Hair: A couple of glugs of Worchestershire sauce does wonders too

    Good stuff. Please, keep them coming lol.

    Peanut toppings.

  185. Sighduck says:

    Surrey Oiler: An AHL goalie doing well…an NHL goalie he shall NEVER be!

    Not until MacT publicly questions his abilities, then Vezina caliber in no longer than 18 months, seen this movie before and it doesn’t matter which GM has the remote the channel never changes!

  186. Wilde says:

    Wheels came off in the last 5 minutes or so, where the Oilers went +0/-8 in CF.

    Neither team getting anything done in the slot, except the one look in tight where Talbot rage-challenged on a clean walk in.

  187. OmJo says:

    Devils didn’t play Hall at all during the final few minutes of the third, down 3-2?

  188. Woogie63 says:

    OmJo: Once upon a time I favoured Todd McLellan over Mike Babcock.

    Fool me once…

    If Joel Quinville is available you hire him no matter how many 2nd round picks it takes. IMO.

    Edit: But then again, I still prefer Krueger or Nelson over Todd McLellan.

    You are going to use Katz’ money to pay TMac at $3M/yr (and crew another $1M) not to coach and then you are going to pay Coach Q $5M/yr (and crew another $1M) to coach?

    Not going to happen…

  189. Lowetide says:

    After One

    1-0 Buffalo
    Shots: 15-8 Buffalo
    Corsi for 5×5: 19-14 Buffalo

    That was a poor period.

  190. wood99 says:

    Material pocession,

    Yes if I rookie player gave the puck away as much as Lucic ,he would not see the ice for weeks.An example is Cammalleri even though he is not a rookie. Has a couple bad giveaways and is in the press box the next game.

  191. OmJo says:

    Oh fuck you Principe you got me you sly bastard you…

  192. hunter1909 says:

    OmJo:
    Devils didn’t play Hall at all during the final few minutes of the third, down 3-2?

    Hall asked to be excused early, so he could go and poison the dressing room.

  193. jp says:

    Pescador: I always look for healthier snacks while I’m guzzling 7-8 beers,helps me keep this slim figure

    I just wanted to recognize this.

  194. OmJo says:

    Woogie63: You are going to use Katz’ money to pay TMac at $3M/yr (and crew another $1M) not to coach and then you are going to pay Coach Q $5M/yr (and crew another $1M) to coach?

    Not going to happen…

    Hm… Easy solution. Fire Lowe and MacT and give Quinville their salaries?

  195. OmJo says:

    hunter1909: Hall asked to be excused early, so he could go and poison the dressing room.

    First off the ice in practice and in game!

  196. Harpers Hair says:

    OmJo: Good stuff. Please, keep them coming lol.

    Peanut toppings.

    I and my boys make a version of Nuts and Bolts with chili powder, lime infused peanuts and BACON. Unbelievable

  197. Munny says:

    OmJo:
    Devils didn’t play Hall at all during the final few minutes of the third, down 3-2?

    Isn’t he out for a couple of games?

  198. JD_Wry says:

    Lowetide: That was a poor period.

    Eye-eye.

  199. OmJo says:

    Harpers Hair: I and my boys make a version of Nuts and Bolts with chili powder, lime infused peanuts and BACON. Unbelievable

    Does the bacon make or break it? Could it do without?

    And… I hope this isn’t a stupid question but… what in the world are lime infused peanuts? Like you inject limejuice into them with a needle? Serious question, I swear I’m not trying to be an ass, I’ve never heard of that lol.

  200. JD_Wry says:

    Pescador: guzzling

    You say guzzling, I say enjoying

    Let’s call the whole thing off!

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