Buyer’s Market?

There is a growing concern in Oilers nation about the possible return the club will see for Patrick Maroon at the trade deadline. The Edmonton Oilers are extremely unlikely to make the postseason in 2018, the current odds have them barely hanging on. There are eight teams with more than a 75 percent chance of making the playoffs, meaning there are eight spots open in two conferences.

In the eastern conference, SportsClubStats has six eastern teams (Tampa Bay, Boston, Washington, Toronto, New Jersey, Philadelphia) and six western teams (Vegas, Nashville, Winnipeg, St. Louis, Dallas, San Jose) over the 70 percent threshold at this time. Teams between 51-74 percent include Los Angeles, Dallas, Columbus, Pittsburgh, Calgary and the NY Islanders.

There are 18 teams with a 50+ chance to make the playoffs and the case can be made for each of these teams to be full-fledged buyers. The rest of the NHL, fully 12 teams, should be considered at least possible sellers.

There are three teams between 35 and 50 percent (Minnesota, Anaheim, NY Rangers) who aren’t acting like sellers and that makes sense because a winning streak could put them right back into contention. If we include these three teams, we are left with nine clear sellers, one of whom are at least contemplating their future.

  • Carolina Hurricanes. Despite having a less than 30 percent chance of making the playoffs, the club is just four points behind No. 8 Philadelphia Flyers.

That leaves nine teams who should be clear sellers. Arizona, Chicago, Vancouver and Edmonton in the west, plus Buffalo, Ottawa, Detroit, Montreal and Florida in the east. When we look at whether or not it’s a buyer’s or seller’s market this year at the trade deadline, it comes down to scarcity of position and skill. Patrick Maroon of the Oilers is a big, rugged winger with skill who can play inside the top 6F. Among the teams listed here, his trade “competition” could be be Evander Kane (Buffalo), Mike Hoffman (Ottawa), Max Pacioretty (Montreal) and Thomas Vanek (Vancouver).

Maroon’s big advantage, or rather the big advantage for the Oilers in regard to offloading Maroon for value, is his price point. At $1.5 million toward the cap, his acquiring team isn’t going to need much room in order to add him to its roster. In this way, I do think this is going to be a seller’s market, at least for Maroon, at this year’s deadline. It might be a ‘five seconds to midnight’ trade but Edmonton should get real value for the big winger. What does real value look like? I’ll say a young NHL player who has shown some promise but is not central to this spring’s playoff run.

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27 Responses to "Buyer’s Market?"

  1. JimmyV1965 says:

    Interesting read LT. I think Maroon could be the big prize at the deadline. His cap hit will be minuscule, he’s shown he can play with star players and he brings all those playoff intangibles that GMs love. While Kane and Hoffman are better players, Kane has perceived dressing room issues and some teams cannot accommodate Hoffman’s cap hit next year.

    If we get only a second round pick, I’ll be very disappointed.

  2. prefonmich says:

    The ONLY positive to being as obviously out of the playoff picture at this point is Chia has the time to find the best value for our trade pieces.

    I hope he makes good use of this time and finds real value for Maroon. If not a close prospect of some value to our team next year then a first rounder. His extremely low cap hit should add immensely to his value at the deadline if the right team is looking… one very close to cap.

    I would hold out for a strong return. If teams only offer a second, keep him and continue discussions to sign him.

    Unfortunately Chia has shown no ability to win trades nor to negotiate value contracts so I am not feeling confident in what will be accomplished over the next few weeks…

  3. Brantford Boy says:

    So is Robert Thomas (STL) out of the question here? What about Kristian Vesalainen (WPG), I think Maroon would really fit well into the Jets system…

  4. Doug McLachlan says:

    Maroon to the Islanders for Calgary’s 1st.

    Then we set about knocking Calgary into the lotto – Dahlin with a dash of salt and we call the season a win. 🙂

  5. JimmyV1965 says:

    Brantford Boy: Kristian

    Brantford Boy:
    So is Robert Thomas (STL) out of the question here?What about Kristian Vesalainen (WPG), I think Maroon would really fit well into the Jets system…

    Would love to get any one of those guys. I think Klim Kostin should be the minimum. He was the last pick in the first round last year. He’s still an excellent prospect but he’s not burning it up in the AHL. I say this of course without watching him play.

  6. JimmyV1965 says:

    Doug McLachlan:
    Maroon to the Islanders for Calgary’s 1st.

    Then we set about knocking Calgary into the lotto – Dahlin with a dash of salt and we call the season a win.

    Love it!!!

  7. ArmchairGM says:

    Doug McLachlan:
    Maroon to the Islanders for Calgary’s 1st.

    Then we set about knocking Calgary into the lotto – Dahlin with a dash of salt and we call the season a win.

    That’s about the best outcome imaginable!

  8. OriginalPouzar says:

    I don’t consider Max P. or Hoffman as comparables to Maroon at this deadline as they would not be pure rentals given they have term left.

    I think Maroon’s comparables are Kane and Vanek

  9. NYC-Back-to-Tokyo Oil (Gentleman Backpacker) says:

    Would think the only realistic return for Maroon from St. Louis would be Barbashev, completing an Oilers’ connection circle with the David Perron trade.

    Thomas, Kostin, Kyrou, Thompson are out of the question, I would think. I think one of those pieces might be moved for Hoffman, but not for a UFA to be in Maroon.

  10. thehop says:

    NYC-Back-to-Tokyo Oil (Gentleman Backpacker),

    I hope they go after Thomas and a a kicker to make it happen. I was very impressed with his play at the WJC this year.

  11. JimmyV1965 says:

    NYC-Back-to-Tokyo Oil (Gentleman Backpacker):
    Would think the only realistic return for Maroon from St. Louis would be Barbashev, completing an Oilers’ connection circle with the David Perron trade.

    Thomas, Kostin, Kyrou, Thompson are out of the question, I would think. I think one of those pieces might be moved for Hoffman, but not for a UFA to be in Maroon.

    I don’t think that’s necessarily true. Kostin was the last pick in the first round last year. That to me is a the very least we should get. He’s not lighting it up in the AHL either, not that he should be, but it hasn’t increased his value.

  12. JimmyV1965 says:

    Kyrou has been added to TSNs top 30 trade deadline candidates.

  13. NYC-Back-to-Tokyo Oil (Gentleman Backpacker) says:

    JimmyV1965: I don’t think that’s necessarily true. Kostin was the last pick in the first round last year. That to me is a the very least we should get. He’s not lighting it up in the AHL either, not that he should be, but it hasn’t increased his value.

    If you think that is the very least we should get I think you are setting yourself up for disappointment. Unless we are adding a significant pick to the package.

    Can I see the Blues dealing Kyrou or Kostin or Thomas or Thompson? Yes. But not for Maroon. We shall see.

  14. NYC-Back-to-Tokyo Oil (Gentleman Backpacker) says:

    thehop:
    NYC-Back-to-Tokyo Oil (Gentleman Backpacker),

    I hope they go after Thomas and a a kicker to make it happen. I was very impressed with his play at the WJC this year.

    Fair target if we are adding to Maroon.

  15. ArmchairGM says:

    NYC-Back-to-Tokyo Oil (Gentleman Backpacker):
    Would think the only realistic return for Maroon from St. Louis would be Barbashev, completing an Oilers’ connection circle with the David Perron trade.

    Thomas, Kostin, Kyrou, Thompson are out of the question, I would think. I think one of those pieces might be moved for Hoffman, but not for a UFA to be in Maroon.

    We can give them now until (the day before) the deadline to negotiate an extension with Maroon, thus as a sign-and-trade Maroon won’t be a pure rental.

    But you are correct, they are unlikely to trade one of their “big 4” for a pure rental. On the other hand, Maroon’s career playoff scoring is equal to or better than every Blues player save Tarasenko and he’s only about 0.1 p/gp behind Vlad, so there’s that.

  16. ArmchairGM says:

    Saw this on another site:

    Career points-per-game

    Tarasenko 0.73
    Stastny 0.64
    Maroon 0.62
    Schwartz 0.61
    Schenn 0.58
    Steen 0.51
    Pietrangelo 0.46
    Parayko 0.39
    Sobotka 0.35

  17. OriginalPouzar says:

    I wonder what undrafted CHLers the Oilers might have their eye on to sign (like Mantha and Hebig) – maybe a guy like Sam Militec?

  18. NYC-Back-to-Tokyo Oil (Gentleman Backpacker) says:

    ArmchairGM: We can give them now until (the day before) the deadline to negotiate an extension with Maroon, thus as a sign-and-trade Maroon won’t be a pure rental.

    But you are correct, they are unlikely to trade one of their “big 4” for a pure rental. On the other hand, Maroon’s career playoff scoring is equal to or better than every Blues player save Tarasenko and he’s only about 0.1 p/gp behind Vlad, so there’s that.

    Well if the Maroon rumoured ask on an extension is anywhere near true it would seem unlikely the Blues would be eager to give up a top prospect for him.

    Let’s say the number it would take for Maroon is 3.5m because he wants to stay for his son. Other than sentimental reasons is that better than if Ottawa retained 1m on Hoffman so he is 4.1m?

    I know which player I would choose as the Blues and I might include one of the big 4 for Hoffman. But I wouldn’t without seeing how Maroon would produce without a strong centre in McDavid or Draisaitl. Because he is going to get Stastny or Sobotka.

    Just don’t see it. I could see Barbashev and a conditional pick, like a 4th that becomes a 3rd if he re-signs. Or just a straight 2nd.

    Could you imagine the Oilers last year giving up a Benson type prospect for a Maroon type player at the deadline? And those 4 look ahead of Benson at this point.

  19. JimmyV1965 says:

    NYC-Back-to-Tokyo Oil (Gentleman Backpacker): Well if the Maroon rumoured ask on an extension is anywhere near true it would seem unlikely the Blues would be eager to give up a top prospect for him.

    Let’s say the number it would take for Maroon is 3.5m because he wants to stay for his son. Other than sentimental reasons is that better than if Ottawa retained 1m on Hoffman so he is 4.1m?

    I know which player I would choose as the Blues and I might include one of the big 4 for Hoffman. But I wouldn’t without seeing how Maroon would produce without a strong centre in McDavid or Draisaitl. Because he is going to get Stastny or Sobotka.

    Just don’t see it. I could see Barbashev and a conditional pick, like a 4th that becomes a 3rd if he re-signs. Or just a straight 2nd.

    Could you imagine the Oilers last year giving up a Benson type prospect for a Maroon type player at the deadline? And those 4 look ahead of Benson at this point.

    This is all speculation of course, but as one of the top trade pieces at the deadline, I think Maroon’s value is at minimum a second round pick. Kostin is basically a second round pick. In fact, I believe Kostin is the player the Blues ultimately got from the Pens in the Ryan Reaves trade for a first round pick.

    If I’m Ottawa, I want more than one of the big four if I’m trading Hoffman. There’s absolutely no way I trade him for one of the big four and retain $1 mill in salary. Hoffman has a decent contract. I doubt they retain salary in any deal.

    Hoffman is hard to project at the trade deadline because his cap hit is for multiple years. The Blues are pretty tight to the cap right now. They may be able to fit in Hoffman under the cap, but it would be really close. In fact, Im pretty sure they can’t. I’m just not sure if they have LTIR cap available to them.

  20. NYC-Back-to-Tokyo Oil (Gentleman Backpacker) says:

    JimmyV1965,

    Yeah, to clarify I did not mean that Ottawa would trade Hoffman with money retained one for one. They’d want a 1st + one of the Big 4 at a minimum, I think.

    I agree that Maroon might fetch a 2nd. But I see Kostin as worth more than a 2nd so that’s where we diverge. That’s why I can’t see St Louis trading one of them for Maroon straight up. Barbashev plus a pick maybe, or just a 2nd. But I think their Big 4 will only move for a more significant, non-UFA piece than Maroon.

  21. Wilde says:

    Maroon gets a 2nd fairly easily.

    Forwards traded a year ago:

    Brian Boyle
    -2nd + Froese (ppg-ish ahler)

    Thomas Jurco
    -3rd

    Burrows
    -Dahlen (2nd rounder with good arrows post draft, NHL prospect)

    Iginla
    -4th

    And the year before that:

    E. Gelinas
    -2nd

    Prince
    -3rd

    Stempniak
    -2nd
    -4th

    Winnik
    -5th swapped for a 2nd
    -Carrick (fringe D prospect, Babcock-blocked.)

    Purcell
    -3rd

    Weise+Fleishmann
    -2nd
    -Danault(top 5 deadline trade in cap era?)

    Maroon’s gotta be in range with Boyle, and Winnik right? Even with centre bump.

    But of course, I’d be trading him for Ho-Sang.

  22. OriginalPouzar says:

    Hoffman would warrant materially more than Maroon in a trade – main reason being that Hoffman is not a pure rental, he is signed through next year with a reasonable cap hit. The potential acquirers of Hoffman include 30 NHL teams, not just “buyers” that are in the market for a rental such as Hatty Maroon.

    WIth that said there are only a few pure rental offensive forwards out there – Kane, Vanek and Maroon come to mind. Maroon has a solid resume and the return should be solid.

  23. NYC-Back-to-Tokyo Oil (Gentleman Backpacker) says:

    Wilde:
    Maroon gets a 2nd fairly easily.

    Forwards traded a year ago:

    Brian Boyle
    -2nd + Froese (ppg-ish ahler)

    Thomas Jurco
    -3rd

    Burrows
    -Dahlen (2nd rounder with good arrows post draft, NHL prospect)

    Iginla
    -4th

    And the year before that:

    E. Gelinas
    -2nd

    Prince
    -3rd

    Stempniak
    -2nd
    -4th

    Winnik
    -5th swapped for a 2nd
    -Carrick (fringe D prospect, Babcock-blocked.)

    Purcell
    -3rd

    Weise+Fleishmann
    -2nd
    -Danault(top 5 deadline trade in cap era?)

    Maroon’s gotta be in range with Boyle, and Winnik right? Even with centre bump.

    But of course, I’d be trading him for Ho-Sang.

    And out of that entire list there are no prospects like the St Louis 4. Dahlen debatable.

    I am not arguing Maroon won’t fetch a second. I am saying he won’t fetch Thomas/Kyrou/Kostin/Thompson

  24. Wilde says:

    NYC-Back-to-Tokyo Oil (Gentleman Backpacker): And out of that entire list there are no prospects like the St Louis 4. Dahlen debatable.

    I am not arguing Maroon won’t fetch a second. I am saying he won’t fetch Thomas/Kyrou/Kostin/Thompson

    Oh yeah I was responding to the dialogue of whether or not Maroon get’s a 2nd, my personal thoughts on the St. Louis prospects is that they’re not the guys you want to get right now, because you’re likely in a bidding war.

  25. NYC-Back-to-Tokyo Oil (Gentleman Backpacker) says:

    Wilde,

    Fair. They’re the hottest prospect group in hockey at the moment, like Winnipeg’s 2 summers ago.

  26. ArmchairGM says:

    NYC-Back-to-Tokyo Oil (Gentleman Backpacker),

    Yeah, not sold on Barbashev. He seems like an undersized version of Ryan Strome. He probably tops out at 4C – if he can stick in this league at all.

    Anyhow, we really shouldn’t have blinders on when it comes to Maroon – he should be sold top the highest bidder without any sentimental thought involved. If that’s Tampa or Washington or Pittsburgh, so be it.

  27. NYC-Back-to-Tokyo Oil (Gentleman Backpacker) says:

    ArmchairGM,

    I am not sold either. Just saying I can’t see Maroon fetching one of the Big 4. If it is Barbashev and a 4th or a 2nd straight up I think I take the 2nd

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