People are Strange

One of the strangest things about this season is the ongoing debate about Leon Draisaitl. Seems the new contract has expectations high as a kite, and Draisaitl’s numbers (they are good) simply don’t rhyme. This brings us to the question: Are people crazy?

THE ATHETIC!

Great offer! Includes a free 7-day trial so you can try The Athletic on for size free and see if they enjoy the in-depth, ad-free coverage on the site. If you don’t feel it’s worth the $4.49/month, cancel anytime during trial before getting charged. Offer is here.

Pronman’s list and verbal never disappoints and this year’s mid-season ranking is no exception. His reasoning is sound, his knowledge is excellent and his writing descriptive.

DRAISAITL YEAR OVER YEAR

I keep reading about Leon Draisaitl’s disappointing season but the 5×5 offense shines like a diamond. Leon’s in some lesser shooting luck but even with that malady is delivering a handsome 2.36/60 5×5 performance. He’s also playing away from Connor McDavid about 50 percent of the time this season (he spent about 25 percent of his season without 97 in 2016-17).

Why are people down on Leon? I have $8.5 million reasons why, but that’s not fair to Leon. It’s the old Shawn Horcoff conversation all over again. People enter into an agreement in good faith, that’s the deal. We can discuss Leon as a trade asset if you wish but it’s important to acknowledge his progress at 5×5 this season. The power play is also off but that’s across the entirety of the team.  All numbers today via NaturalStatTrick.

ENOUGH?

One of the questions Oilers management needs to find an answer to surrounds the top two lines. Do they have six legit forwards for deployment? If so, Edmonton would be searching for just one player (to replace Patrick Maroon) over the summer. Obviously need to address the third and fourth lines but there are seven men (Khaira included) who are 1.80/60 or  better at 5×5. Folly to expect Khaira to post these numbers again (you’d need three years of 1.88/60 5×5 to consider him established) but how many more are needed?

What about blue? One righty who can help on the power play and hold his own on the second pairing 5×5? Plus penalty killers on the depth lines. Is that it? Sniper LW, second-pairing RHD nd two penalty-killing forwards?

JAGR

If this is it, thank you Jaromir Jagr. I remember when he emerged as an NHL player, he was so skilled and had so much hair it was impossible to ignore him. He was pure power and splendid, so impressive he could not be overlooked even on a famous team. I have thoroughly enjoyed the NHL career of Jaromir Jagr and can tell you we will be saying goodbye to one of the very best who ever played the game. A giant walked among us, with child-like innocence married to an attitude in the same general range as Mariah Carey. I am going to miss you so much, Jaromir Jagr.

LOWDOWN WITH LOWETIDE

A busy fun show, heading out of the All-Star break and into the official second half and Super Bowl week. Scheduled to appear, TSN1260 beginning at 10:

  • Pierre Lebrun, TSN and The Athletic. The conversation with Peter Chiarelli and big stories coming out of the All-Star break.
  • John Horn, Around the Horn. Roger Federer, man. Man.
  • Jason Gregor, TSN1260. Super Bowl, what can the Oilers get from the second half?

10-1260 text, @Lowetide on twitter. See you on the radio!

written by

The author didn‘t add any Information to his profile yet.
Related Posts

199 Responses to "People are Strange"

  1. OriginalPouzar says:

    LT: I have brought this up a good half a dozen times over the last month or so – in my opinion, Leon is having a very nice season – your 5 on 5 numbers show just how good he has been at evens and, as you point out, about half of his time has been centering his own line, away from McDavid. Additionally, much of that time at center has been spend with tweeners or middling NHL players as his wingers and, in some instances, boat anchors.

    In my opinion, Leon is proving that he can drive his own line and is, in fact, doing it on most occasions.

    The issue with Leon’s overall boxcars is 100% the PP. If he was producing at even half the rate he did on the PP last year, he’d be well over a PPG player this year. Of course, his lack of production is part of the issue on the PP but the PP as a whole is an issue and we know that that will even out over time.

    Leon, in my opinion, is having great success in year 1 of the contract – he is still developing and going to get better. He will continue to produce at evens and his PP production will improve. He will be full value for that contract even if it could have/should have come in apx $1M/season lower.

  2. OriginalPouzar says:

    Maroon needs to be traded for assets leading up to the trade deadline. We simply need to acquire the futures that he can and will bring in a trade.

    With that said, I’m not adverse to re-signing him (and hopefully management will speak to his camp re: the parameters of a new deal and their intent to bring him back prior to the trade). Unfortunately, ab initio, I don’t think we can afford to pay Maroon what the market will value him at (which is likely around $4M X 4). I think, if Maroon is brought back, it needs to be a value contract, a hometown discount and, unfortunately, those just don’t exist in the Oiler world.

  3. Woogie63 says:

    Before next October we have a few important holes to solve

    xxxx- McDavid – xxxx Job one for PC to solve this with TALENT
    Lucic – Driasaitl – Puljarjavi Excited to watch this line, big, hold the puck, can score
    Khaira – Hopkins – Strome This line can play 16 minutes every night
    Calggiula -xxxx – Kassian PK, aggressive center would fit the bill

    #makeconnorbetter

  4. OriginalPouzar says:

    We likely have a hole in the top 6 for next season as I don’t anticipate Yamamoto is ready for the top 6 out of camp (that is debatable – I know LT thinks he will be on the team).

    Benson is likely a year away (and he may be a 2nd/3rd line type guy – not sure where his pro offence will take him).

    I’m not sure how management will be able to acquire a value contract for that top 6 – that’s going to be tough to find.

    A couple wild cards:

    1) Winning the 2nd or 3rd lottery provide a high end offensive winger prospect – I know, I know, we’ve been rushing our 1st rounders for years, however, high end offensive prospects are generally able to produce in their draft plus 1 year.

    2) I’m on an island here but I’m still focusing on Strome’s ability to play 3C – he’s done very well, in my opinion, in a small sample size over the last few weeks – he has created more offence that I think his box cars show, he has done well in battles and, in my opinion, is generally responsible. I would like the 3C to kill penalties and he did that for the very first time last game with over 3 minutes on the PK – I’d like to see him kill a bit more – its a learned skill.

    If Strome is able to fill the 3C role, even if its not ideal and, of course, subject to his contract (that damn $3M QO requirement is an issue) it will allow us to play both Nuge and Drai in the top 6 and it fills a top 6 winger spot, internally. No unicorn but a stop gap until our prospects mature.

  5. dustrock says:

    OriginalPouzar,

    Agreed completely. Drai hasn’t been the problem this year, and I had thought that generally running McDavid-RNH-Drai had been working well. If they had another couple of good wingers, I think the forwards would be more or less solved.

    Welp, on to the eternal “I’m sure Benson and Yamamoto can fill those spots”, rinse, repeat.

    Regarding D, as the season is lost, does anyone else want to see Klefbom and Larsson back together, just to see if they can get to last year’s success again?

    Looks like Todd has abandoned that completely.

  6. zatch says:

    Excellent point on Drai, easy to forget he’s legit coming into his own on 5×5 play.

    I don’t think Jagr clears. Someone will take a swing, perhaps Montreal, perhaps San Jose, but someone.

  7. OriginalPouzar says:

    Woogie63:
    Before next October we have a few important holes to solve

    xxxx- McDavid – xxxx Job one for PC to solve this with TALENT
    Lucic – Driasaitl – PuljarjaviExcited to watch this line, big, hold the puck, can score
    Khaira – Hopkins – Strome This line can play 16 minutes every night
    Calggiula -xxxx – KassianPK, aggressive center would fit the bill

    #makeconnorbetter

    I would like to move Khaira to the 4C position – he has shown the ability to play up the lineup but I think he would do great at the 4C and an increasing role on the PK. I think he’ll play well with Zack – some good speed and aggressiveness between the two and both have a bit of offensive skill (Khaira has shown WAY more puck skills this season than I thought he had).

    I’d rather have him start at 4C and earn his way up the lineup or move up for injury that slot him higher at the beginning.

  8. Kinger_Oil.redux says:

    – Great post LT!

    – What about Strome as your 4C next year? It’s kind an obvious one IMO. I see:

    New Maroon v.2-McD-Pool
    Lucic-Drai-(Kailer/Benson/someone)
    Jar-RNH-better than Cami vet
    Cags-Strome-Kassian

    – Strome does some PK, plays the better-than-Letetsu on PP Right Hand shot, and if both RNH and Strome play well next year, you have a surplus of C to make a move?

  9. OriginalPouzar says:

    Kinger_Oil.redux:
    – Great post LT!

    – What about Strome as your 4C next year?It’s kind an obvious one IMO.I see:

    New Maroon v.2-McD-Pool
    Lucic-Drai-(Kailer/Benson/someone)
    Jar-RNH-better than Cami vet
    Cags-Strome-Kassian

    – Strome does some PK, plays the better-than-Letetsu on PP Right Hand shot, and if both RNH and Strome play well next year, you have a surplus of C to make a move?

    I can see Strome as 3C and Khaira as 4C.

    The $3M required QO may prohibit re-signing Strome with the intent as 4C – although I am hopeful they can come to terms on a contract with a lower cap hit for 2 years.

    Alot depends on how Strome looks in his continued audition as 3C (actually played 2C last game and had his best game of the year).

  10. thehop says:

    OriginalPouzar:
    LT: I have brought this up a good half a dozen times over the last month or so – in my opinion, Leon is having a very nice season – your 5 on 5 numbers show just how good he has been at evens and, as you point out, about half of his time has been centering his own line, away from McDavid.Additionally, much of that time at center has been spend with tweeners or middling NHL players as his wingers and, in some instances, boat anchors.

    In my opinion, Leon is proving that he can drive his own line and is, in fact, doing it on most occasions.

    The issue with Leon’s overall boxcars is 100% the PP.If he was producing at even half the rate he did on the PP last year, he’d be well over a PPG player this year. Of course, his lack of production is part of the issue on the PP but the PP as a whole is an issue and we know that that will even out over time.

    Leon, in my opinion, is having great success in year 1 of the contract – he is still developing and going to get better.He will continue to produce at evens and his PP production will improve.He will be full value for that contract even if it could have/should have come in apx $1M/season lower.

    You and I have been going back and forth on this topic. I’m glad the man wrote about it. I rarely examine numbers to justify my opinion. Having a look at what was posted, it appears my the idea of trading Drai for BALANCE is out of touch.

    I’ll reserve the right to keep the idea of a 1 for 3 on the back burner though.

    In my defence, I’ve never doubted his ability or production. He’s clearly a stud and could be for a very long time.

  11. Wilde says:

    Kinger_Oil.redux:
    – Great post LT!

    – What about Strome as your 4C next year?It’s kind an obvious one IMO.I see:

    New Maroon v.2-McD-Pool
    Lucic-Drai-(Kailer/Benson/someone)
    Jar-RNH-better than Cami vet
    Cags-Strome-Kassian

    – Strome does some PK, plays the better-than-Letetsu on PP Right Hand shot, and if both RNH and Strome play well next year, you have a surplus of C to make a move?

    I like this a lot, but i want to give Strome a better LW here. LHS who can swap down low and take weakside faceoffs, and facilitate the Kassian rush better.

    I’d spend legit assets on a move for Petan here. Worst case scenario he helps on the Bakersfield top line with Benson, Hebig or both.

    Or displaces someone else who does. If it works, we have a lethal 4th line to take chunk of the ES goal diff year over year. Although I suspect we’ll get better goaltending there next year as well.

  12. Wilde says:

    OriginalPouzar: I can see Strome as 3C and Khaira as 4C.

    The $3M required QO may prohibit re-signing Strome with the intent as 4C – although I am hopeful they can come to terms on a contract with a lower cap hit for 2 years.

    Alot depends on how Strome looks in his continued audition as 3C (actually played 2C last game and had his best game of the year).

    I like taking the risk of projecting Khaira as 3LW umtil he stops producing there. Then you only have to get a 4LW rather than a 3LW.

  13. Kinger_Oil.redux says:

    Wilde,

    McD-Drai-RNH-Strome: you have 4 C that are for-sure slotted properly, and arguably RNH could be higher, Strome could be higher, and Jar as a hybrid: Ideal

    – Then don’t do what WG suggests and get a Jagr for a winger: But between internal, and better than Cami vet and a winger signing/trade you aren’t doing major surgery, but can pivot

  14. Scungilli Slushy says:

    OriginalPouzar: I would like to move Khaira to the 4C position – he has shown the ability to play up the lineup but I think he would do great at the 4C and an increasing role on the PK. I think he’ll play well with Zack – some good speed and aggressiveness between the two and both have a bit of offensive skill (Khaira has shown WAY more puck skills this season than I thought he had).

    I’d rather have him start at 4C and earn his way up the lineup or move up for injury that slot him higher at the beginning.

    I’ve mentioned that as well Khaira at 4C, although he might have already played his way off 4th line with his production. It’s likely to early to slot him at 3C but if he keeps progressing in his overall game I think he’ll have that spot. I think he has more natural ability than Strome offensively and is a better skater.

    His production is higher than Maroon’s. Don’t be surprised if he’s the replacement at LW. Finding a 4C isn’t the hardest thing to do.

    I wonder if Gambardella could do it. If they keep Nuge the 4th line will be pretty sheltered. He wasn’t bad at camp and will have most of a year in the A under his belt and college guys should need less time to transition.

    Joe is a tank, with Cags and Kassian I could see a hard forechecking line that is a pain to play and might provide two PKers. Maybe three if Cags gets it together. I suppose it comes down to boots as it usually does these days.

  15. JimmyV1965 says:

    I don’t know how he’s going to do it, but Chia needs to bring in a 25-goal winger next year. We don’t have a single winger on the team we can realistically expect to do that.

    Need a RHD as well, but I don’t think we need a high-end guy. Just someone we can slot on the third pair, who can fill in on the second pair. I think the PP can be much improved with the people we have right now.

  16. russ99 says:

    I have:

    XX – McDavid -Puljujarvi
    Lucic – Draisaitl – Strome/Yamamoto
    Khaira – XX – Kassian (add a good defensive center to make shutdown third line)
    XX – Gambardella -XX

    Bottom line could contain kids were bringing up, should start on low minute line and work up. I see Yamamoto as a real possibility here.

  17. maudite says:

    THANK YOU.

    Special teams completely are sewering this team. PK even moreso than PP.

    Even if drai is not hitting exactly the mark of 8.5 million (i think main problem is that people still can’t get head wrapped around % cap of deal and compare players with contracts signed in different years) it’s what 1 million hight at best (in first year with lots of daylight remaining).

    Lucic is having a very Lucic year yet again. He ain’t hall but he he’s never been hall. What he has been is Lucic, a guy that plays more games than hall and delivers pretty consitent production. While he might be signed to long even the biggest ass couldn’t justify that he’s maybe again a million high

    That 2 million dollars worst case is not the problem they just happen to be on the higher end of the payroll thus now subject to the same stupid shit that always seems to come with that.

    Lucic and russell in the same sentence had been a very annoying thing that has occurred way too much this season.

  18. Wilde says:

    Kinger_Oil.redux:
    Wilde,

    McD-Drai-RNH-Strome: you have 4 C that are for-sure slotted properly, and arguably RNH could be higher, Strome could be higher, and Jar as a hybrid: Ideal

    – Then don’t do what WG suggests and get a Jagr for a winger: But between internal, and better than Cami vet and a winger signing/trade you aren’t doing major surgery, but can pivot

    Say we go fishing for a Petan and got one, I actually would be in favour of signing right side guy for 1-2M to create competition on the other side. It’s probably too many assets out to make TWO mid level deals for the two wingers we need to acquire for the bottom end of next year’s roster, so getting one for just money and one through trade would be ideal in my opinion.

    Most I’d do is offer sheet Rieder for 3M and then let someone else go.

  19. fifthcartel says:

    Leon Draisaitl’s contract is unfortunate. Peter Chiarelli should have been able to negotiate down to at least in the 7-7.5m range. I don’t think there’d be much talk If Draisaitl had a $6.5m or 7m cap hit.

    But Draisaitl is paid like a top ten forward. Only Kane, Toews, Kopitar, Ovechkin, Malkin, Benn, Crosby, Perry, Stamkos are ahead of him and virtually all of those contracts were third/mostly UFA contracts.

    It was an unprecedented overpay. The next closest forward in terms of age is Tarasenko. He signed his deal when he was 23, Draisaitl was 21. There stats are a little similar. ~40 game season to start, then a ~0.70 ppg season following, with a big third year in the league. But Tarasenko did this sans a generational center. IIRC he had 4 RFA years left compared to Draisaitl’s 5.

    Draisaitl’s ~70 point pace is good, but rightfully or wrongfully I expect more given his cap hit. I’d expect two things from Draisaitl as a top ten highest-paid forward:

    1) Minimum time with 97 5-on-5. 2) 1ppg or more as a center.

    This comes back to Chiarelli. His inability to extract value reels its ugly head again. He can’t keep bleeding value just to ‘get his man’ and build the roster he wants.

    It’s a little funny Friedman reported Edmonton wasn’t interested in Subban because his contract, but now have Draisaitl at $8.5m and Lucic and Russell combining for $10m.

  20. Wilde says:

    I’d offer sheet the hell out of Ryan Spooner too if I’m not resigning Strome.

    I don’t want to hear ‘nobody’s going to help us’ from management anymore. Fuck them then. They screwed us on Hamilton, don’t ‘help’ other teams by letting their RFA’s go untouched.

  21. Wilde says:

    russ99:
    I have:

    XX – McDavid -Puljujarvi
    Lucic – Draisaitl – Strome/Yamamoto
    Khaira – XX – Kassian (add a good defensive center to make shutdown third line)
    XX – Gambardella -XX

    Bottom line could contain kids were bringing up, should start on low minute line and work up. I see Yamamoto as a real possibility here.

    No no no stop it, everyone needs to trash Yamamoto. Last time we were doing that, he doubled his PPG.

    This is how these things work.

  22. dustrock says:

    fifthcartel:
    Leon Draisaitl’s contract is unfortunate. Peter Chiarelli should have been able to negotiate down to at least in the 7-7.5m range. I don’t think there’d be much talk If Draisaitl had a $6.5m or 7m cap hit.

    But Draisaitl is paid like a top ten forward. Only Kane, Toews, Kopitar, Ovechkin, Malkin, Benn, Crosby, Perry, Stamkos are ahead of him and virtually all of those contracts were third/mostly UFA contracts.

    It was an unprecedented overpay. The next closest forward in terms of age is Tarasenko. He signed his deal when he was 23, Draisaitl was 21. There stats are a little similar. ~40 game season to start, then a ~0.70 ppg season following, with a big third year in the league. But Tarasenko did this sans a generational center. IIRC he had 4 RFA years left compared to Draisaitl’s 5.

    Draisaitl’s ~70 point pace is good, but rightfully or wrongfully I expect more given his cap hit. I’d expect two things from Draisaitl as a top ten highest-paid forward:

    1) Minimum time with 97 5-on-5. 2) 1ppg or more as a center.

    This comes back to Chiarelli. His inability to extract value reels its ugly head again. He can’t keep bleeding value just to ‘get his man’ and build the roster he wants.

    It’s a little funny Friedman reported Edmonton wasn’t interested in Subban because his contract, but now have Draisaitl at $8.5m and Lucic and Russell combining for $10m.

    If Draisaitl was producing at the same rate on the PP as last year, I think your concerns would be answered.

    It was unquestionably an overpay, but he’s bettered his 5v5 stats in a difficult season, playing less with the Legend.

  23. OriginalPouzar says:

    Wilde: I like taking the risk of projecting Khaira as 3LW umtil he stops producing there. Then you only have to get a 4LW rather than a 3LW.

    As well as a 4C.

    I’m the opposite – I’d like to project him at the more material position (center) but lower in the lineup.

    Given organizational depth at the position, I see Khaira as a center.

  24. OriginalPouzar says:

    Kinger_Oil.redux:
    Wilde,

    McD-Drai-RNH-Strome: you have 4 C that are for-sure slotted properly, and arguably RNH could be higher, Strome could be higher, and Jar as a hybrid: Ideal

    – Then don’t do what WG suggests and get a Jagr for a winger: But between internal, and better than Cami vet and a winger signing/trade you aren’t doing major surgery, but can pivot

    I know some/many are fine with not qualifying Strome or trading him for a 3rd round pick but I’m remiss to give up the center depth at this point.

    The $3M QO is an issue – maybe Strome proves in the 2nd half of the season that he’s worth a near $3M contract for a one year trial (hopefully). Maybe he does sign for a lower cap hit to get a 2-3 year term if he has an up and down 2nd half.

  25. Oilman99 says:

    OriginalPouzar:
    Maroon needs to be traded for assets leading up to the trade deadline.We simply need to acquire the futures that he can and will bring in a trade.

    With that said, I’m not adverse to re-signing him (and hopefully management will speak to his camp re: the parameters of a new deal and their intent to bring him back prior to the trade).Unfortunately, ab initio, I don’t think we can afford to pay Maroon what the market will value him at (which is likely around $4M X 4). I think, if Maroon is brought back, it needs to be a value contract, a hometown discount and, unfortunately, those just don’t exist in the Oiler world.

    Trading Maroon creates the same conundrum as exists at the RW position. This should not be a consideration, get him signed there is a possibility of a discount situation as he was very grateful for the opportunity afforded him in Edmonton.

  26. OriginalPouzar says:

    Scungilli Slushy: I’ve mentioned that as well Khaira at 4C, although he might have already played his way off 4th line with his production. It’s likely to early to slot him at 3C but if he keeps progressing in his overall game I think he’ll have that spot. I think he has more natural ability than Strome offensively and is a better skater.

    His production is higher than Maroon’s. Don’t be surprised if he’s the replacement at LW. Finding a 4C isn’t the hardest thing to do.

    I wonder if Gambardella could do it. If they keep Nuge the 4th line will be pretty sheltered. He wasn’t bad at camp and will have most of a year in the A under his belt and college guys should need less time to transition.

    Joe is a tank, with Cags and Kassian I could see a hard forechecking line that is a pain to play and might provide two PKers. Maybe three if Cags gets it together. I suppose it comes down to boots as it usually does these days.

    I’m not sure if Khaira has more natural offensive ability that Strome but he has definitely shown more this season that I ever thought he had. He is definitely a better skater.

    I think slotting JJ in to the top 6 wing would be setting the team up for similar failures to what we’ve experienced this year. There may be no other option due to cap room (or having both Drai and Nuge in the top 6) – I guess we’ll see.

    Same issue with projecting Joe G. at 4C next year – he’s had an uneven first pro season and, frankly, a bit disappointing overall.

    Projecting Khaira in the top 6 and a player with zero NHL experience at 4C is making bets on internal development that didn’t work this year.

    Its an option, a risky one mind you.

  27. JimmyV1965 says:

    fifthcartel:
    Leon Draisaitl’s contract is unfortunate. Peter Chiarelli should have been able to negotiate down to at least in the 7-7.5m range. I don’t think there’d be much talk If Draisaitl had a $6.5m or 7m cap hit.

    But Draisaitl is paid like a top ten forward. Only Kane, Toews, Kopitar, Ovechkin, Malkin, Benn, Crosby, Perry, Stamkos are ahead of him and virtually all of those contracts were third/mostly UFA contracts.

    It was an unprecedented overpay. The next closest forward in terms of age is Tarasenko. He signed his deal when he was 23, Draisaitl was 21. There stats are a little similar. ~40 game season to start, then a ~0.70 ppg season following, with a big third year in the league. But Tarasenko did this sans a generational center. IIRC he had 4 RFA years left compared to Draisaitl’s 5.

    Draisaitl’s ~70 point pace is good, but rightfully or wrongfully I expect more given his cap hit. I’d expect two things from Draisaitl as a top ten highest-paid forward:

    1) Minimum time with 97 5-on-5. 2) 1ppg or more as a center.

    This comes back to Chiarelli. His inability to extract value reels its ugly head again. He can’t keep bleeding value just to ‘get his man’ and build the roster he wants.

    It’s a little funny Friedman reported Edmonton wasn’t interested in Subban because his contract, but now have Draisaitl at $8.5m and Lucic and Russell combining for $10m.

    I think the Oil were not interested in Subban because they wanted Drai, Nurse and another pick or player.

  28. Bag of Pucks says:

    I get that Kladno is beckoning immediately with a contract in hand, but if I’m Jagr, I’d sign a one day contract with Pittsburgh now so he can retire as a Penguin and make it official.

  29. zatch says:

    Jagr clears, as per Mirtle.

    Good night, sweet prince

  30. OriginalPouzar says:

    JimmyV1965:
    I don’t know how he’s going to do it, but Chia needs to bring in a 25-goal winger next year.We don’t have a single winger on the team we can realistically expect to do that.

    Need a RHD as well, but I don’t think we need a high-end guy. Just someone we can slot on the third pair, who can fill in on the second pair. I think the PP can be much improved with the people we have right now.

    Personally, I think its fantasy to think that we will plug both the top 6 winger hole and the 1/2RD hole this off-season, there simply isn’t enough cap space unless we are able to somehow get Lucic to waive his NMC and find a team to take him without giving us a bad contract back – then, of course, we also need to replace Lucic as 2LW.

    Personally, I look to fix the hole on 1/2RD over the forward winger spot.

    I see multiple players that could fill a top 6 winger spot in the next few years (Yamamoto, Benson, Maksimov, etc.) – no, not all will make it but there is a decent bet that one or two will emerge as legit top 6 forwards.

    I don’t see the same internal potential for right defence. Ethan Bear is the main guy but, in my opinion, he’s at least a few years away and I’m not sure if he’ll ever be able to fill at top 2 pairing role – potential for a 3RD and PP type guy.

    Mantha is the only other legit RD that’s playing pro.

    Fix the D externally and wait for the prospects to fix the top 6 winger spot internally.

  31. Bag of Pucks says:

    fifthcartel:
    Leon Draisaitl’s contract is unfortunate. Peter Chiarelli should have been able to negotiate down to at least in the 7-7.5m range. I don’t think there’d be much talk If Draisaitl had a $6.5m or 7m cap hit.

    But Draisaitl is paid like a top ten forward. Only Kane, Toews, Kopitar, Ovechkin, Malkin, Benn, Crosby, Perry, Stamkos are ahead of him and virtually all of those contracts were third/mostly UFA contracts.

    It was an unprecedented overpay. The next closest forward in terms of age is Tarasenko. He signed his deal when he was 23, Draisaitl was 21. There stats are a little similar. ~40 game season to start, then a ~0.70 ppg season following, with a big third year in the league. But Tarasenko did this sans a generational center. IIRC he had 4 RFA years left compared to Draisaitl’s 5.

    Draisaitl’s ~70 point pace is good, but rightfully or wrongfully I expect more given his cap hit. I’d expect two things from Draisaitl as a top ten highest-paid forward:

    1) Minimum time with 97 5-on-5. 2) 1ppg or more as a center.

    This comes back to Chiarelli. His inability to extract value reels its ugly head again. He can’t keep bleeding value just to ‘get his man’ and build the roster he wants.

    It’s a little funny Friedman reported Edmonton wasn’t interested in Subban because his contract, but now have Draisaitl at $8.5m and Lucic and Russell combining for $10m.

    This is what the team gets for tying him to McDavid at the hip. Leon’s agent would rightfully argue that Leon was a core contributor to Connor’s Hart season, finished in the Top 10 in scoring, and should be paid accordingly.

    If MacLellan instead had Leon at 2C for the bulk of last season, his boxcars are likely substantially lower and thus the same for his contract demands – and the team would’ve been one development year closer towards establishing a legitimate Top 6 with two scoring lines.

    Instead, Todd goes ‘super line’ and everyone wants to get paid accordingly.

    The GM gets all the blame for the contract when the HC is zooming the player’s numbers in a contract year. Not saying Chiarelli shouldn’t have done better on the cap hit given the term he handed over, but TMac wasn’t exactly doing him a solid with his player deployment. But then, that’s kind of the core theme for this organization at the moment.

  32. Wilde says:

    OriginalPouzar: As well as a 4C.

    I’m the opposite – I’d like to project him at the more material position (center) but lower in the lineup.

    Given organizational depth at the position, I see Khaira as a center.

    Yeah, I posted I’d get Petan or a comparable there, while keeping Strome.

    Khaira – Nuge/Drai – Yamamoto/UFA/Ho-Sang
    Petan – Strome – Kassian

  33. Wilde says:

    JimmyV1965: I think the Oil were not interested in Subban because they wanted Drai, Nurse and another pick or player.

    I wish we made that deal to be honest.

    The rumour was Draisaitl, Nurse, 4th OV for Subban, 9OV(Sergachev).

  34. fifthcartel says:

    Bag of Pucks,

    Agreed. And I’ll give McLellan a bit of slack since the team was winning for the first time in forever. If that keeps up they’d likely be heroes in Edmonton and given a ton of leeway, and they did.

    But it created more problems because now that’s the go to solution. “They lost, stack the top line it’s the only way”. They’re paying him 8 years for a season he spent the majority of the time on RW, when his long term position should be center.

    JimmyV1965,

    I’m not sure we’ll ever get to hear the actual deals. Considering Subban was dealt fairly quickly after Hall I’m not sure the price was that. If so, I’d still probably do it. Subban’s are only available every so often.

    dustrock,

    Definitely, but how much does that 97 time zoom his 5v5 totals? I think they were good regardless, but I want to dig into it.

    Re: the PP. I’m not convinced that was a regular thing and not just a magical PP season. LD was 13th in the league in 5-on-4 p/60 (min 25 min).

  35. JimmyV1965 says:

    Bag of Pucks: This is what the team gets for tying him to McDavid at the hip. Leon’s agent would rightfully argue that Leon was a core contributor to Connor’s Hart season, finished in the Top 10 in scoring, and should be paid accordingly.

    If MacLellaninstead had Leon at 2C for the bulk of last season, his boxcars are likely substantially lower and thus the same for his contract demands – and the team would’ve been one development year closer towards establishing a legitimate Top 6 with two scoring lines.

    Instead, Todd goes ‘super line’ and everyone wants to get paid accordingly.

    The GM gets all the blame for the contract when the HC is zooming the player’s numbers in a contract year. Not saying Chiarelli shouldn’t have done better on the cap hit given the term he handed over, but TMac wasn’t exactly doing him a solid with his player deployment. But then, that’s kind of the core theme for this organization at the moment.

    I hope we never have a head coach who slots guys in based on salary implications.

  36. JimmyV1965 says:

    Wilde: I wish we made that deal to be honest.

    The rumour was Draisaitl, Nurse, 4th OV for Subban, 9OV(Sergachev).

    Suban 28

    Drai 22
    Nurse 22

  37. OmJo says:

    Jagr was only 38 games away from Howe’s record of most games played?

    If he clears waivers that’s a damn shame.

    I would have claimed him just for locker room presence alone.

  38. OmJo says:

    Why are people down on Leon? I have $8.5 million reasons why, but that’s not fair to Leon. It’s the old Shawn Horcoff conversation all over again.

    Had a feeling this was going to happen.

  39. digger50 says:

    Im not convinced that A team with Ryan Strome as third center and JJ as fourth line center is a Stanley Cup team. Need to be better.

    Getting better of course means not getting worse. So if we are to trade Maroon we get worse. If we trade Nuge we get worse. It’s terrifying to think of losing these two considering our chances of getting worse are 50/50 at best.

    We need another 20-25 goal winger. If we lose Maroon we need two 20 goal players coming back for next year.

    Yamamoto? Big maybe.

    I think I would rather have Maroon at 4m than Strome at 3m. maroon hasproven he can score with Connor. This talent has been harder than expected.

    As has been shown on this blog many times, we win with Connor on the ice. We lose with Connor off the ice.

    Connor needs some help. The tryouts must stop.
    We have plenty of talent to build a dominant second line.
    We need better 3 and 4 lines. We are losing when they are on the ice.
    It’s true that the answer to making the 3 and 4 lines better may lie with the defencemen.

  40. JimmyV1965 says:

    digger50:
    Im not convinced that A team with Ryan Strome as third center and JJ as fourth line center is a Stanley Cup team. Need to be better.

    Getting better of course means not getting worse. So if we are to trade Maroon we get worse. If we trade Nuge we get worse.It’s terrifying to think of losing these two considering our chances of getting worse are 50/50 at best.

    We need another 20-25 goal winger. If we lose Maroon we need two 20 goal players coming back for next year.

    Yamamoto?Big maybe.

    I think I would rather have Maroon at 4m than Strome at 3m. maroon hasproven he can score with Connor. This talent has been harder than expected.

    As has been shown on this blog many times, we win with Connor on the ice. We lose with Connor off the ice.

    Connor needs some help. The tryouts must stop.
    We have plenty of talent to build a dominant second line.
    We need better 3 and 4 lines. We are losing when they are on the ice.
    It’s true that the answer to making the 3 and 4 lines better may lie with the defencemen.

    Maroon is a UFA next year. Barring some miracle playoff run, we have to trade him.

  41. Professor Q says:

    Bag of Pucks:
    I get that Kladno is beckoning immediately with a contract in hand, but if I’m Jagr, I’d sign a one day contract with Pittsburgh now so he can retire as a Penguin and make it official.

    He does own it, afterall. Calgary could loan him.

    It would suck to see him go before the season is done. Maybe Calgary could trade him to Tampa Bay or Vegas?

  42. OriginalPouzar says:

    Bag of Pucks:
    I get that Kladno is beckoning immediately with a contract in hand, but if I’m Jagr, I’d sign a one day contract with Pittsburgh now so he can retire as a Penguin and make it official.

    He’s under contract with the flames and will remain so unless he is claimed on waivers.

    I believe the plan is to loan him the a European team if he clear but the flames will retain his rights and he would be available for the playoffs if they want to bring him back.

  43. Wilde says:

    JimmyV1965: Suban 28

    Drai 22
    Nurse 22

    We could have gone to the finals or won the cup last year, this year, or the next two with the Hall+McDavid+Subban roster though.

    We’d have Sergachev+Subban+Hall for 16M instead of Lucic+Russell+Drai for 18.5M.

  44. thehop says:

    OmJo,

    You know what isn’t fair?

    Being a fan of a team that has consistently shit the bed. A team that has a negative track record with regards to acquiring talent and turning that into playoffs and championships. A team that feels nepotism is the surest way to build a championship caliber team and management structure.

    I could go on but up get my point.

    Draisaitl is not Horcoff. Not even close.

    He’s a great player, second best Oiler on the team. Should be a big part of the future but if he can get the team what it needs to win a championship…

  45. anduril says:

    Spitballing some ideas for moves:

    (1) Offseason: Move to GM by committee. Keep Chiarelli for stability and minor trades/college signings but ensure big trades are approved by committee that includes Keith Gretzky, Craig MacTavish, and Bob Nicholson. Alternatively, fire Chiarelli and bring in Fletcher?

    (2) Offseason: Don’t think they should fire Todd McLellan but if they did, Kris Knoblauch as coach? Don’t like the idea of going with another old school coach like Tippett or Sutter etc. Need coach who is part of the evolution of the game. Knoblauch and McDavid obviously a good fit. Otherwise, replace Johnson and Woodcroft. Maybe promote Herbers, Fleming, and/or Coffey? Bring Fleming to the Oilers and make Herbers the Condors Head Coach? Add a rockstar from Junior or AHL or NCAA?

    (3) Deadline or Offseason: Ask Lucic to waive NMC. Apparently, MTL was bidding on him when we signed him, right? Trade Lucic for Galchenyuk? Julien and Lucic like each other right? Cap Savings: 1.1million

    (4) Deadline: Ask Russell to waive NMC. Trade. Contract is an overpay and anchor for a 4/5. Not sure what we could get but as long as we don’t retain, I’d be pretty happy. If Russell won’t waive, have to try to get Sekera to waive but need some value in return. One of those two contracts, or both, needs to go to sign Nurse and keep Klefbom and Larsson. Looking for a 3/4W and/or picks. Target Leivo or Shoshnikov? Or maybe McCann and Petrovic? Throw in Slepyshev to get ‘er done. Cap Savings: $2-5.5million

    (5) Deadline: Trade Maroon for a prospect or a 1/2 draft pick but willing to resign in offseason at no more than $4.75m x 4yrs, structured so last year or two is easily tradeable (something like Russell deal but no NMC). He’s faster than Lucic and, if (3) happens, keeping his size and chemistry with McDavid is a good idea. Alternatively, target Jannik Hansen or Michael Grabner as UFAs. Cap Cost: $3-5million

    (6) Deadline: Trade Letestu for a 3/4 pick. Cap Savings: $1.8million

    (7) Offseason: Trade RNH for a RHD, as much as I love RNH. McDavid-Draisaitl-Strome-Khaira is still a strong stable middle. I would aim for Faulk, Barrie, Trouba, or Dumba. If not doable, then Strome for Demers (or better one of Pysyk, Ceci, Petrovic, though I doubt any but Petrovic would work… throw in Lagesson or Marino-type for the first two?), and keep RNH, but that’ll make the next moves 8 and 10 tougher from a Cap standpoint. Cap Savings: $500K-1.2million (RNH for RHD, Strome for Petrovic) or Cap Cost: $1.5million (Strome for Demers) or Cap Neutral (Strome+ for Pysyk or Ceci).

    (8) Sign one of Atkinson, Kovalchuk, Bailey, or Hornqvist in the off-season. Wouldn’t give much term to Kovalchuk (2 years) or Hornqvist (3-4 years). They’d just be stop-gap options. Cap Cost: $5-7million, depending on player and term.

    (9) Re-sign Cammalleri for 1 year. Cap Neutral

    (10) Target Roussel, Komarov, or Vermette as UFA. Cap Cost: $2-4million

    Lineup for Fall:

    Galchenyuk – McDavid – Atkinson/Kovalchuk/Bailey (if Hornqvist, Puljujarvi on 1st and Hornqvist on 2nd)
    Maroon/Hansen/Grabner – Draisaiitl – Puljujarvi
    Leivo/Khaira- Strome/RNH – Cammalleri/Shoshnikov
    Roussel/Komarov/Caggiula – Khaira/Vermette/McCann – Kassian

    Nurse – Faulk/Demers/Benning
    Klefbom – Larsson
    Sekera/Russell – Benning/Petrovic
    Davidson

    Talbot
    Montoya

    I think overall these moves provide more balance, increase team speed and provide better options for the penalty kill. Doable? What’s good, what’s not?

  46. Professor Q says:

    anduril,

    I still love the idea of signing Kovalchuk. Would have been easier if we’d have been contending a bit better, but maybe the McDavid factor helps out a lot.

    Interesting ideas, all. Doubt all of it happens obviously but I think it’d be awesome if so. I suppose we’ll have to see!

  47. Gayfish says:

    OmJo:
    Jagr was only 38 games away from Howe’s record of most games played?

    If he clears waivers that’s a damn shame.

    I would have claimed him just for locker room presence alone.

    Chia wouldn’t claim him on the off chance TMac plays him with connor to make a point, and he put up some crooked numbers.

  48. Gayfish says:

    Professor Q:
    anduril,

    I still love the idea of signing Kovalchuk. Would have been easier if we’d have been contending a bit better, but maybe the McDavid factor helps out a lot.

    Interesting ideas, all. Doubt all of it happens obviously but I think it’d be awesome if so. I suppose we’ll have to see!

    You still need to trade NJ something to sign him, and they probably want something significant because there is no incentive otherwise. I don’t know how Lou got to skirt the rules so much on that one.

  49. anduril says:

    Gayfish: You still need to trade NJ something to sign him, and they probably want something significant because there is no incentive otherwise. I don’t know how Lou got to skirt the rules so much on that one.

    After this season, I think he is a UFA, no?

  50. meanashell11 says:

    anduril,

    Yup.

  51. OmJo says:

    Eric Francis: “There’s an argument that could be made that Jaromir Jagr is the greatest Flame of all time.”

    Wow eat shit Iginla?

  52. Connoreah says:

    Wilde: We could have gone to the finals or won the cup last year, this year, or the next two with the Hall+McDavid+Subban roster though.

    We’d have Sergachev+Subban+Hall for 16M instead of Lucic+Russell+Drai for 18.5M.

    True. But also consider, in 2-3 years when McDavid is still not quite at his prime…
    – Subban is 31-32, slowing down, no longer an high impact player
    – Hall is approaching 30, and looking for $11 million for the next 8 years
    – Sergachev is, well a stud. No argument there.

    Meanwhile in Montreal…
    – Draisaitl is hitting his prime signed for $8.5 long term (and at that point $8.5 will be the new $6)
    – Puljuarvi is on his wing, just starting to figure out how to dominate the the league as the prototypical winger in the NHL, and probably making $5 million long term
    – Nurse is a top pair dman, possible stud, for $5 million signed long term

    Obviously this is all speculative, but the point being that I would much rather play the long game with McDavid. Having Draisaitl, Puljujarvi and Nurse all signed long term in their prime next to McDavid in his prime is the jackpot IMHO. I wouldn’t trade that for a quick couple of cup runs when McDavid is 21, personally.

  53. OmJo says:

    Curious, what are Draisaitl’s WOWYs w/ McDavid?

  54. Gayfish says:

    I think we should be targeting Ilya Sorokin. He hasn’t signed with NYI, so will reenter the draft this year. There’s russian factor there, and he probably doesn’t want to come over because he can make more than ELC money over there. I think if he passes through the draft he becomes UFA, and you might be able to get him over here at that point. .930 in KHL for last two seasons. Originally drafted in 2014, so he’s 21ish.

  55. frjohnk says:

    OmJo:
    Curious, what are Draisaitl’s WOWYs w/ McDavid?

    Overall, 633 minutes at 5 on 5 he has 2.46pts/60
    With McDavid, 311 minutes, Drai has 2.89pts/60
    Without McDavid, 322 minutes, Drai has 2.04pts/60

  56. OmJo says:

    thehop:
    OmJo,

    You know what isn’t fair?

    Being a fan of a team that has consistently shit the bed. A team that has a negative track record with regards to acquiring talent and turning that into playoffs and championships. A team that feels nepotism is the surest way to build a championship caliber team and management structure.

    I could go on but up get my point.

    Draisaitl is not Horcoff. Not even close.

    He’s a great player, second best Oiler on the team. Should be a big part of the future but if he can get the team what it needs to win a championship…

    He’s not Horcoff, not saying he is. Mostly meant his play will always be looked at in the context of his contract, like Horcoff was. Horcoff was an important part of the team, not a great players post-shouldwr injury, but still was a good 3C and exceptional leader.

    I defended Horcoff a lot of the Oilers board over the years. I won’t be a hypocrite and do what fans did to Horcoff to Draisaitl. My issue with the contract is that General Disappointment gave it to him based on nothing but rumours and a very small sample size of success away from McDavid.

    I haven’t watched every game this season but I haven’t been overly impressed with his play, post-concussion in some of the games I have watched. That’s not in the context of his contract but in context of how he looked last season, which was dominant.

  57. Wilde says:

    Connoreah: True. But also consider, in 2-3 years when McDavid is still not quite at his prime…
    – Subban is 31-32, slowing down, no longer an high impact player
    – Hall is approaching 30, and looking for $11 million for the next 8 years
    – Sergachev is, well a stud. No argument there.

    Meanwhile in Montreal…
    – Draisaitl is hitting his prime signed for $8.5 long term (and at that point $8.5 will be the new $6)
    – Puljuarvi is on his wing, just starting to figure out how to dominate the the league as the prototypical winger in the NHL, and probably making $5 million long term
    – Nurse is a top pair dman, possible stud, for $5 million signed long term

    Obviously this is all speculative, but the point being that I would much rather play the long game with McDavid. Having Draisaitl, Puljujarvi and Nurse all signed long term in their prime next to McDavid in his prime is the jackpot IMHO. I wouldn’t trade that for a quick couple of cup runs when McDavid is 21, personally.

    Subban is the player-type to excel into his early thirties imo

    McDavid is in his prime right now. He’s a generational talent. He won the Hart Trophy last year. You can win with that. The value of 19-20 year old McDavid at 3.775M is insane. Incomparable in the cap era.

    I’d say Sergachev and Nurse will be comparable impact players, Hall is currently better than Draisaitl so that’s a wash, but we have 10 extra million dollars from not having Lucic and Russell long term.

    I think the team would still be set up to win comparably well in the future as the version in reality, on top of already having had 2 years as a cup favourite.

  58. OriginalPouzar says:

    OmJo:
    Curious, what are Draisaitl’s WOWYs w/ McDavid?

    I think the PuckIQ number for this year are coming shortly – I think.

  59. OmJo says:

    frjohnk: Overall, 633 minutes at 5 on 5 he has 2.46pts/60
    With McDavid, 311 minutes, Drai has 2.89pts/60
    Without McDavid, 322 minutes, Drai has 2.04pts/60

    Thank you! Where are you finding these, may I ask? Now that hockey analysis is closed down idk where to look.

    Edit: now that I think about it, I don’t think hockey analysis had P/60 WOWYs either.

  60. OriginalPouzar says:

    frjohnk: Overall, 633 minutes at 5 on 5 he has 2.46pts/60
    With McDavid, 311 minutes, Drai has 2.89pts/60
    Without McDavid, 322 minutes, Drai has 2.04pts/60

    Considering his linemates without McDavid (generally) – that’s pretty darn good, isn’t it?

    May I ask where you got the numbers?

  61. frjohnk says:

    OmJo: Thank you! Where are you finding these, may I ask? Now that hockey analysis is closed down idk where to look.

    naturalstatrick.
    You will have to get the numbers as teammates and player summary and do a manual calculation
    http://naturalstattrick.com/playerreport.php?season=20172018&playerid=8477934&sit=5v5&stype=2

  62. OriginalPouzar says:

    I haven’t watched every game this season but I haven’t been overly impressed with his play, post-concussion in some of the games I have watched. That’s not in the context of his contract but in context of how he looked last season, which was dominant.

    This adds to my excitement for the player. I will admit that he hasn’t looked all that great at times this year and has been inconsistent.

    We know he can play better yet he’s still over 2.00 ESP/60 without McDavid and playing with middling/tweener wingers (often) all while not playing at his top level.

    How amazing is this player going to be when he’s paired with Maksimov and Puljijarvi and in his prime?

  63. OriginalPouzar says:

    frjohnk: naturalstatrick.
    You will have to get the numbers as teammates and player summary and do a manual calculation
    http://naturalstattrick.com/playerreport.php?season=20172018&playerid=8477934&sit=5v5&stype=2

    Thank you for doing the work.

  64. frjohnk says:

    OriginalPouzar: that’s pretty darn good, isn’t it?

    Yes.

  65. Wilde says:

    anduril:
    Spitballing some ideas for moves:

    (1) Offseason: Move to GM by committee. Keep Chiarelli for stability and minor trades/college signings but ensure big trades are approved by committee that includes Keith Gretzky, Craig MacTavish, and Bob Nicholson. Alternatively, fire Chiarelli and bring in Fletcher?

    (2) Offseason: Don’t think they should fire Todd McLellan but if they did, Kris Knoblauch as coach? Don’t like the idea of going with another old school coach like Tippett or Sutter etc. Need coach who is part of the evolution of the game. Knoblauch and McDavid obviously a good fit. Otherwise, replace Johnson and Woodcroft. Maybe promote Herbers, Fleming, and/or Coffey? Bring Fleming to the Oilers and make Herbers the Condors Head Coach? Add a rockstar from Junior or AHL or NCAA?

    (3) Deadline or Offseason: Ask Lucic to waive NMC. Apparently, MTL was bidding on him when we signed him, right? Trade Lucic for Galchenyuk? Julien and Lucic like each other right? Cap Savings: 1.1million

    (4) Deadline: Ask Russell to waive NMC. Trade. Contract is an overpay and anchor for a 4/5. Not sure what we could get but as long as we don’t retain, I’d be pretty happy. If Russell won’t waive, have to try to get Sekera to waive but need some value in return. One of those two contracts, or both, needs to go to sign Nurse and keep Klefbom and Larsson. Looking for a 3/4W and/or picks. Target Leivo or Shoshnikov? Or maybe McCann and Petrovic? Throw in Slepyshev to get ‘er done. Cap Savings: $2-5.5million

    (5) Deadline: Trade Maroon for a prospect or a 1/2 draft pick but willing to resign in offseason at no more than $4.75m x 4yrs, structured so last year or two is easily tradeable (something like Russell deal but no NMC). He’s faster than Lucic and, if (3) happens, keeping his size and chemistry with McDavid is a good idea. Alternatively, target Jannik Hansen or Michael Grabner as UFAs. Cap Cost: $3-5million

    (6) Deadline: Trade Letestu for a 3/4 pick. Cap Savings: $1.8million

    (7) Offseason: Trade RNH for a RHD, as much as I love RNH. McDavid-Draisaitl-Strome-Khaira is still a strong stable middle. I would aim for Faulk, Barrie, Trouba, or Dumba. If not doable, then Strome for Demers (or better one of Pysyk, Ceci, Petrovic, though I doubt any but Petrovic would work… throw in Lagesson or Marino-type for the first two?), and keep RNH, but that’ll make the next moves 8 and 10 tougher from a Cap standpoint. Cap Savings: $500K-1.2million (RNH for RHD, Strome for Petrovic) or Cap Cost: $1.5million (Strome for Demers) or Cap Neutral (Strome+ for Pysyk or Ceci).

    (8) Sign one of Atkinson, Kovalchuk, Bailey, or Hornqvist in the off-season. Wouldn’t give much term to Kovalchuk (2 years) or Hornqvist (3-4 years). They’d just be stop-gap options. Cap Cost: $5-7million, depending on player and term.

    (9) Re-sign Cammalleri for 1 year. Cap Neutral

    (10) Target Roussel, Komarov, or Vermette as UFA. Cap Cost: $2-4million

    Lineup for Fall:

    Galchenyuk – McDavid – Atkinson/Kovalchuk/Bailey (if Hornqvist, Puljujarvi on 1st and Hornqvist on 2nd)
    Maroon/Hansen/Grabner – Draisaiitl – Puljujarvi
    Leivo/Khaira- Strome/RNH – Cammalleri/Shoshnikov
    Roussel/Komarov/Caggiula – Khaira/Vermette/McCann – Kassian

    Nurse – Faulk/Demers/Benning
    Klefbom – Larsson
    Sekera/Russell – Benning/Petrovic
    Davidson

    Talbot
    Montoya

    I think overall these moves provide more balance, increase team speed and provide better options for the penalty kill. Doable? What’s good, what’s not?

    I don’t mind most of this stuff, not high on any particular moves though but:

    3) Team’s aren’t even going to take our bad contracts for free, let alone getting an asset like Galchenyuk back

    4) See 3

    5) I think the only rental winger getting a 1st this year is Kane, but I’d be ecstatic if we actually got any pick above #31 in 2018

    6) Letestu and comparable players have gone for 5th round picks in recent years, not 3rds

    7) Atkinson signed a 7 year contract with the Jackets in November

    10) Komarov’s getting absolutely caved with anything higher than 4th line duties

  66. OmJo says:

    frjohnk,

    Appreciate it, thanks.

  67. Connoreah says:

    Wilde: Subban is the player-type to excel into his early thirties imo

    McDavid is in his prime right now. He’s a generational talent. He won the Hart Trophy last year. You can win with that. The value of 19-20 year old McDavid at 3.775M is insane. Incomparable in the cap era.

    I’d say Sergachev and Nurse will be comparable impact players, Hall is currently better than Draisaitl so that’s a wash, but we have 10 extra million dollars from not having Lucic and Russell long term.

    I think the team would still be set up to win comparably well in the future as the version in reality, on top of already having had 2 years as a cup favourite.

    Regarding Subban’s longevity, there’s no way of knowing, and maybe you’re right. But imo, Subban is and has been a star in an NHL that is evolving, quickly. The offensive, fast, creative Dman isn’t as rare as it has been under Subban’s prime. I believe how impactful he will be as a 30-something will be significantly less simply because his player type will be more common (not to mention his aging).

    I think we understand the term “prime” differently. If you think McDavid is in his prime today, that suggests he will not grow or become better at any point (based on my understanding). I believe he will continue to get better over the next 3-5 seasons, which is when he will be most dominant. That’s when I want him playing with other players who are also in their prime. Having them all locked up with reasonable cap hits (relative to market value at that time) is a huge bonus, imo.

    Regarding Hall vs Draisaitl, I respectfully disagree. Hall is a winger. Hall is arguably at his peak today, and has once been a point per game player (excluding the lock out year). Depending on if he stays healthy, he may be a point per game player this year. Draisaitl is a power center. He is a proven playoff performer. If his powerplay luck changes, he may actually pass Hall in points this year while Hall is having a career year. And based on last year and this year, I suspect Draisaitl will be a point per game player several times over the next several years. In short, I don’t see any practical reason why Hall would be viewed as a more valuable player than Draisaitl today, or in the future.

  68. OmJo says:

    OriginalPouzar: Considering his linemates without McDavid (generally) – that’s pretty darn good, isn’t it?

    May I ask where you got the numbers?

    Imagine if he and McDavid had capable wingers. Best 1-2 punch in the league? Pretty darn close if not.

    Nothing against players like JP and Khaira who are still rookies, ofc.

  69. Bank Shot says:

    OriginalPouzar: This adds to my excitement for the player.I will admit that he hasn’t looked all that great at times this year and has been inconsistent.

    We know he can play better yet he’s still over 2.00 ESP/60 without McDavid and playing with middling/tweener wingers (often) all while not playing at his top level.

    How amazing is this player going to be when he’s paired with Maksimov and Puljijarvi and in his prime?

    I don’t even care about the offence with Draisaitl.

    One problem facing this team is that both him and McDavid are really only 50% engaged when it comes to doing the defensive work.

    Of course this isn’t going to be a popular opinion. I’m sure fans will immediately come out of the woodwork to tell me about their chances per 60 and that they are the best players on the team, and they will be right.

    But, these two guys both need to be as committed to defence as they are when there are scoring chances to be had. I hope the coaches can get through to them on this point.

    I don’t think either doesn’t care or is bad defensively, but neither do they give it their absolute all, at all times, when it comes to D. That is something I would like to see. You get that commitment from your stars and that goes right through the whole team from top to bottom.

  70. OriginalPouzar says:

    OmJo: Imagine if he and McDavid had capable wingers. Best 1-2 punch in the league? Pretty darn close if not.

    Nothing against players like JP and Khaira who are still rookies, ofc.

    Yes, we have bled winger talent with the disposal of Eberle and Hall and we are feeling the effects of that right now.

    With that said, top 6 wingers are easier to find that top 2 centers or top 4D and we have some prospects matriculating (including some potential high ceiling prospects such as Maksimov whose arrows are straight up right now) and, lets not forget, our 1st round pick this coming draft will be material. Who knows where we finish and what the lottery balls provide but imagine adding a Zadina or a Tkachuk? They very well could fill a top 6 role next year but, even if not, they will shoot to the very top of our prospect depth chart.

    As I keep saying, the wingers are coming internally – it just might take some time. I’m not so sure the 1/2RD is coming internally and I’d like any material off-season spending to focus on that spot.

  71. OriginalPouzar says:

    Bank Shot: I don’t even care about the offence with Draisaitl.

    One problem facing this team is that both him and McDavid are really only 50% engaged when it comes to doing the defensive work.

    Of course this isn’t going to be a popular opinion. I’m sure fans will immediately come out of the woodwork to tell me about their chances per 60 and that they are the best players on the team, and they will be right.

    But, these two guys both need to be as committed to defence as they are when there are scoring chances to be had. I hope the coaches can get through to them on this point.

    I don’t think either doesn’t care or is bad defensively, but neither do they give it their absolute all, at all times,when it comes to D. That is something I would like to see. You get that commitment from your stars and that goes right through the whole team from top to bottom.

    I don’t disagree – both need to improve their defensive game – defensive zone positioning more than anything – but they are 21 and 22 years old. They are both driven and I think both will work on those areas. They have to.

  72. frjohnk says:

    OmJo: Imagine if he and McDavid had capable wingers

    Yup, we should aiming higher than having one or two wingers just barely cresting over 20 goals especially with having the best top 3 center depth in the league.

  73. Bank Shot says:

    OriginalPouzar:
    As I keep saying, the wingers are coming internally – it just might take some time.I’m not so sure the 1/2RD is coming internally and I’d like any material off-season spending to focus on that spot.

    They can trade the first plus, for OEL.

    If there is a good trade to be had I don’t have a problem trading a higher first.

    If not it seems like there a lot of defensemen in the 8-10 range so that would be alright.

    Although I don’t have much faith in the Oilers scouting staff to find the gem there. hah

  74. Scungilli Slushy says:

    OriginalPouzar: I don’t disagree – both need to improve their defensive game – defensive zone positioning more than anything – but they are 21 and 22 years old. They are both driven and I think both will work on those areas.They have to.

    When they get some butt hair they are going to be a very hard tandem to match up to. Sort of like Gretzky / Messier. One guy is blowing the doors off your best D and getting 101 HDSC a game.

    The next guy is a puck protecting beast finding open players who is probably as strong as the heavies you put out to deal with him that have half his talent.

    The key is that 3rd line which really puts them over the top. And a set of 6 D that can skate with and pass to them. 4 with two way ability ideally and a 3rd pair that perhaps don’t have a lot of NHL offense but can play some 5v5 and PK.

    For me not having to shelter mature players a lot makes everybody’s job easier and is the depth needed most years for making the playoffs and surviving in them.

  75. Gayfish says:

    OriginalPouzar: Yes, we have bled winger talent with the disposal of Eberle and Hall and we are feeling the effects of that right now.

    With that said, top 6 wingers are easier to find that top 2 centers or top 4D and we have some prospects matriculating (including some potential high ceiling prospects such as Maksimov whose arrows are straight up right now) and, lets not forget, our 1st round pick this coming draft will be material. Who knows where we finish and what the lottery balls provide but imagine adding a Zadina or a Tkachuk? They very well could fill a top 6 role next year but, even if not, they will shoot to the very top of our prospect depth chart.

    As I keep saying, the wingers are coming internally – it just might take some time.I’m not so sure the 1/2RD is coming internally and I’d like any material off-season spending to focus on that spot.

    We are still at a point of every one of our prospect wingers needing to hit 100% of their potential. It’s a poor bet.

  76. OriginalPouzar says:

    Bank Shot: They can trade the first plus, for OEL.

    If there is a good trade to be had I don’t have a problem trading a higher first.

    If not it seems like there a lot of defensemen in the 8-10 range so that would be alright.

    Although I don’t have much faith in the Oilers scouting staff to find the gem there. hah

    OEL is a risk given he’s only got one more year left until UFA status and he can’t be re-signed until July 1. There is the risk of losing him and, if he can be re-signed, its also going to be a pretty massive contract.

    Also, OEL is a leftie so he doesn’t solve the 1/2RD dilemma and, in a trade, we’d need to use Klefbom or Sekera as the main asset going back.

    Yes, the 1st has to be on the table for an elite d-man but, given how valuable that asset may be this year, its a huge risk unless we are talking about the perfect fit on the right side.

    ——————

    Yes, there are quite a few high level RD in the top 10 – unlike the higher end wingers who could contribute right away (potentially), the D (other than Dahlin) are likely a few years away.

  77. OriginalPouzar says:

    Gayfish: We are still at a point of every one of our prospect wingers needing to hit 100% of their potential. It’s a poor bet.

    That’s not true at all – we don’t need each of Benson, Yamamoto, Maksimov, Safin, this coming year’s draft pick (if a forward) to reach their potential.

    If two of them reach their potential then we have filled the top 6 holes – boom.

    I think there is a decent bet that 1 or 2 of them will reach their potential, in particular if we are getting one of the very high end forward prospects in this draft (the high rated D seem to have more risk).

  78. Wilde says:

    Connoreah: Regarding Subban’s longevity, there’s no way of knowing, and maybe you’re right. But imo, Subban is and has been a star in an NHL that is evolving, quickly. The offensive, fast, creative Dman isn’t as rare as it has been under Subban’s prime. I believe how impactful he will be as a 30-something will be significantly less simply because his player type will be more common (not to mention his aging).

    I think we understand the term “prime” differently. If you think McDavid is in his prime today, that suggests he will not grow or become better at any point (based on my understanding). I believe he will continue to get better over the next 3-5 seasons, which is when he will be most dominant. That’s when I want him playing with other players who are also in their prime. Having them all locked up with reasonable cap hits (relative to market value at that time) is a huge bonus, imo.

    Regarding Hall vs Draisaitl, I respectfully disagree. Hall is a winger. Hall is arguably at his peak today, and has once been a point per game player (excluding the lock out year). Depending on if he stays healthy, he may be a point per game player this year. Draisaitl is a power center. He is a proven playoff performer. If his powerplay luck changes, he may actually pass Hall in points this year while Hall is having a career year. And based on last year and this year, I suspect Draisaitl will be a point per game player several times over the next several years. In short, I don’t see any practical reason why Hall would be viewed as a more valuable player than Draisaitl today, or in the future.

    You’re right, Hall is a winger. But he’s a winger who made Anton Lander produce. Does Drai produce no matter who he plays with? Not yet, we don’t know if he ever will. Hall carries his lines, he carries his teams. He’ll get Hart Trophy votes this year.

    In relation to career years, Hall is actually having his 3rd best year this year. Draisaitl had a career year last year, and so did Hall in his 3rd season in the NHL

    Hall’s 3rd season at 5v5:

    Goals per 60: 1.14
    First A per 60: 1.52
    2nd A per 60: 0.47
    Primary P/60: 2.66 (good god)
    Total P per 60: 3.13

    GF%: 53.85 (on 24th place team)

    Most common linemates: Eberle, Nugent-Hopkins

    Drai’s 3rd season at 5v5:

    Goals per 60: 0.66
    First A per 60: 0.82
    2nd A per 60: 0.56
    Primary P/60: 1.48
    Total P per 60: 2.04

    GF%: 53.57 (on 8th place team)

    Most common linemates: McDavid, Maroon

    So they’re not even comparable players at the same age.

    And this season:

    Taylor Hall at 5v5:

    Goals per 60: 1.10
    First A per 60:1.15
    2nd A per 60: 0.54
    Primary P/60: 2.25
    Total P per 60: 2.69

    GF%: 55.22

    Most common linemates: Nico Hischier, Jesper Bratt.

    Leon Draisaitl at 5v5:

    Goals per 60: 0.57
    First A per 60: 1.23
    2nd A per 60: 0.66
    Primary P/60: 1.8
    Total P per 60: 2.46

    GF%: 56:45

    Most common linemates: Connor McDavid, Patrick Maroon.

    And they’re also not comparable this year either.

    No one knows what the future holds, but Hall has been better than Drai at the same age, and better than Drai with lesser linemates. If centre is such an important position, then isn’t it even more important that Hall scores more than Drai as a winger with centres like Nuge, than Drai scores as a winger with McDavid?

  79. anduril says:

    Wilde: I don’t mind most of this stuff, not high on any particular moves though but:

    3) Team’s aren’t even going to take our bad contracts for free, let alone getting an asset like Galchenyuk back

    4) See 3

    5) I think the only rental winger getting a 1st this year is Kane, but I’d be ecstatic if we actually got any pick above #31 in 2018

    6) Letestu and comparable players have gone for 5th round picks in recent years, not 3rds

    7) Atkinson signed a 7 year contract with the Jackets in November

    10) Komarov’s getting absolutely caved with anything higher than 4th line duties

    Thanks for the reply.

    My thought on (3) was that if MTL was bidding on Lucic, they were probably already in the same ballpark on $$$s and term. They just lost out b/c Lucic chose EDM. If true, then maybe they are still interested in him. He hasn’t completely shit the bed here. Oiler fans tend overreact. He produced on PP last year and this year has had decent stretches 5v5. Play that up, along with the Julien factor, and maybe MTL are willing to dump an asset that they don’t believe in, i.e., Galchenyuk. Seems to me Galchenyuk’s value has sunk over this season and last. Bergeron seems to value the “heavy” game like Chiarelli, see Weber, Ott, King, etc. deals, and has a tendency to make a sideways deal or too, see Subban for Weber.

    My thought on (4) is that Russell still has support among some GMs and coaches. He can also play RD and LD so TOR, who needs a RD might be interested in a stable, positive locker room influence for their playoff run. Package him with Slepyshev, who is still 23, and maybe they are willing to let go of a Leivo or Shoshnikov, neither of whom appears to be in their long-term plans and neither of whom has established themselves yet with Babcock. Alternatively, go to the Panthers, who need stable defense, either LD or RD, and who have cap space, and maybe they’d take Russell and Slepyshev for McCann and Petrovic. I think Sekera, while not a value contract, is not a massive overpay either, so if you used him instead of Russell, I’m not sure the return in either case is even enough. He’s a solid veteran and proven clutch contributor. Part of the problem with Russell’s contract has to do with our situation next year and our leftorium. The last two years of the Russell deal aren’t bad.

    Probably right re: (5) though Maroon’s numbers are not way-off right now his performance last year and yet he’s played less with McDavid, I believe. I’d be happy with a second though and maybe a B prospect or a second and fourth or something like that.

    Re: (6). What are your comparables? I see a lot of conditional fourths at last year’s deadline with a couple deals for conditional sixths. Letestu is a 4C and a good utility player. Maybe 4/5 pick is doable?

    My bad re: (7) and (10)… Leaves the others though.

  80. digger50 says:

    JimmyV1965: Maroon is a UFA next year. Barring some miracle playoff run, we have to trade him.

    That’s my point.

    We just “have” to trade him right?

    And create another hole to be filled by who? Particularly with Maroon, he is another glue guy who brings intangibles plus toughness plus his goal total. I want to challenge the notion that we must ditch our talent just because UFA.

    They could resign him. They could trade him and still resign him. I believe he’s better value at 4m than Lucic at 6 and better value than Strome at 3m. He may be better value at 4m than his replacement who is not on the team yet. Or than a second rounder who we will need to wait two years for.

    Would really like to know what his ask ($) is.

  81. Professor Q says:

    Gayfish: You still need to trade NJ something to sign him, and they probably want something significant because there is no incentive otherwise. I don’t know how Lou got to skirt the rules so much on that one.

    That was last year. It no longer applies this year.

    As for Lou, well, he’s Lou.

    Toronto got away from the 2nd owed to New Jersey too, right? While Edmonton still had to pay?

  82. OriginalPouzar says:

    Yamamoto has been named WHL player of the week.

  83. frjohnk says:

    OriginalPouzar:
    Yamamoto has been named WHL player of the week.

    Man, that league must be watered down for him to win that award 🙂

  84. Lowetide says:

    frjohnk: Man, that league must be watered down for him to win that award 🙂

    Let him win player of the year in the ECHL, then give him solid food, THEN let him attend training camp. But only the day they do weight and get the heights, then back to working on a garbage barge. DON’T GIVE HIM ANYTHING!

  85. Wilde says:

    Lowetide,

    Stab him with the HGH while he unloads trucks in Transylvania for 12 years, then invite him to the training camp of the national field hockey team of the Democratic Republic of Congo.

    Also he must wear African neck rings until he’s at LEAST 6 foot.

  86. hunter1909 says:

    Lowetide: Let him win player of the year in the ECHL, then give him solid food, THEN let him attend training camp. But only the day they do weight and get the heights, then back to working on a garbage barge. DON’T GIVE HIM ANYTHING!

    Gift him another top 6 spot before next Training Camp; since veterans obviously need to learn that management is in charge. Blame his lack of professional output on inexperience, while the team’s forced to play with 1/3 of it’s top line aimlessly wandering around, creating little to nothing. On the 50/1 shot that he actually pans out; use this to start driving out any player who management has soured on; uppity star players preferred and now it’s time to get the MSM bleating on how they won’t be there for the “Yamamoto Cluster”.

  87. who says:

    digger50: That’s my point.

    We just “have” to trade him right?

    And create another hole to be filled by who? Particularly with Maroon, he is another glue guy who brings intangibles plus toughness plus his goal total. I want to challenge the notion that we must ditch our talent just because UFA.

    They could resign him. They could trade him and still resign him. I believe he’s better value at 4m than Lucic at 6 and better value than Strome at 3m. He may be better value at 4m than his replacement who is not on the team yet. Or than a second rounder who we will need to wait two years for.

    Would really like to know what his ask ($) is.

    You are absolutely right.
    Maroon at 4×4 is better value than Lucic at 5×6.
    The problem is we can’t afford both and Lucic is already signed.
    It would be a huge mistake to sign Maroon unless you can move Lucic and that just ain’t going to happen.

  88. digger50 says:

    who: You are absolutely right.
    Maroon at 4×4 is better value than Lucic at 5×6.
    The problem is we can’t afford both and Lucic is already signed.
    It would be a huge mistake to sign Maroon unless you can move Lucic and that just ain’t going to happen.

    So you would rather have Strome at 3m than Maroon at 4m?

  89. frjohnk says:

    Lowetide: Let him win player of the year in the ECHL, then give him solid food

    Some kids ask hockey players for autographs.
    My 3 year old kid asked Kailor for his Tshirt back.
    True story

  90. who says:

    digger50: So you would rather have Strome at 3m than Maroon at 4m?

    No
    Don’t want Strome at 3 million either. Unless he has a very good second half at center.
    But I will say I would rather have Nuge at 6 than Maroon at 4.
    Even if I could sign Maroon at 3×3 I would hesitate, because I think Maroon and Lucic in your top 6, or even top 9, makes you too slow on the wings.

  91. digger50 says:

    who: No
    Don’t want Strome at 3 million either. Unless he has a very good second half at center.
    But I will say I would rather have Nuge at 6 than Maroon at 4.
    Even if I could sign Maroon at 3×3 I would hesitate, because I think Maroon and Lucic in your top 6, or even top 9, makes you too slow on the wings.

    Mostly agree

    Tired of losing #1 LW replaced by a second line LW

    Losing a#1 RW replaced by a third line C

    Not sure I see a Maroon at under 4m replacement coming. Would like to, but I’m a doubting Thomas.

  92. Bank Shot says:

    OriginalPouzar: OEL is a risk given he’s only got one more year left until UFA status and he can’t be re-signed until July 1. There is the risk of losing him and, if he can be re-signed, its also going to be a pretty massive contract.

    Also, OEL is a leftie so he doesn’t solve the 1/2RD dilemma and, in a trade, we’d need to use Klefbom or Sekera as the main asset going back.

    Yes, the 1st has to be on the table for an elite d-man but, given how valuable that asset may be this year, its a huge risk unless we are talking about the perfect fit on the right side.

    ——————

    Yes, there are quite a few high level RD in the top 10 – unlike the higher end wingers who could contribute right away (potentially), the D (other than Dahlin) are likely a few years away.

    If you can’t get a guy to re-sign to play with McDavid then we might as well move the team to Seattle.

    OEL would clearly be the best D we have so I don’t care if he’s left or right handed. Worry about that later.

    I don’t think we would need to give up Sekera/Klefbom, although giving up Sekera would actually be nice to save on cap space.

    With only one year left on his contract OEL would actually be available and won’t fetch as much in a trade as other premium defencemen.

    And those are the two big concerns. Most defencemen that the Oilers would want won’t be available, and ones who *may* be available in the right circumstance will require at least fair payment.

    GMs dealing star players as pending UFAs or with a year remaining on a contract typically always lose those trades.

    So Chiarelli should be in on it!

    OEL-Larsson
    Klefbom-Nurse
    Russel-Benning

    That looks like a pretty decent D-core. Better than current and projects better into the future.

  93. who says:

    digger50: Mostly agree

    Tired of losing #1 LW replaced by a second line LW

    Losing a#1 RW replaced by a third line C

    Not sure I see a Maroon at under 4mreplacement coming. Would like to, but I’m a doubting Thomas.

    Yeah I think we are on the same page.
    I don’t see Maroon as a first line winger. And I don’t want to pay him like one just because he is playing first line on this team.
    The biggest hole on this team right now is the only first line winger we have is Drai, and he is a center.
    Good news is that JP seems to be growing into that role this year so we may only have to find one top six forward moving forward.
    I keep coming back to my original timeline. The 19-20 season is when this team really starts humming.
    They could easily make the playoffs next year but the year after is when some of the young pro d and wingers currently in junior really start making an impact. These players can be used to fill holes via trade or they will fill the holes created by the trade of more established, and expensive, players.
    Right now this organization simply doesn’t have the depth to fill holes via trade and doesn’t have the cap space to make a big splash in the free agent market.

  94. OriginalPouzar says:

    No Larsson at practice today – blah!

  95. hunter1909 says:

    Bank Shot: If you can’t get a guy to re-sign to play with McDavid then we might as well move the team to Seattle.

    “I think he’s got a point”

  96. GMB3 says:

    Wilde,

    I agree, Subban is the type of dman who will be above league average probably until his mid 30’s, barring injury.

  97. digger50 says:

    Quite enjoyed Staples piece on how to best utilize Lucic in the Oilers roster.

    I like Milan, like what he brings. Complaints are only around his speed and money. Money we can’t change, but we can decide who he plays with. Connor can make him and others look like turtles out there. But give Milan a center like Drai and another winger like Khaira and he can be highly effective.

    One note though, when Staples suggests moving him to a PK specialist…..hmmm…. but who knows.

  98. hunter1909 says:

    digger50:
    Quite enjoyed Staples piece on how to best utilize Lucic in the Oilers roster.

    I like Milan, like what he brings. Complaints are only around his speed and money. Money we can’t change, but we can decide who he plays with. Connor can make him and others look like turtles out there. But give Milan a center like Drai and another winger like Khaira and he can be highly effective.

    One note though, when Staples suggests moving him to a PK specialist…..hmmm…. but who knows.

    Milan Lucic we never heard the end of once he was drafted using the Oilers’ 2nd round pick which no doubt they threw away on some busted four flusher.

  99. hunter1909 says:

    The idea just crossed my mind; suppose Oilers management wanted to tank this season?

  100. leadfarmer says:

    OriginalPouzar:
    Yamamoto has been named WHL player of the week.

    Yeah but can he win player of the week in WHL next year.

  101. LMHF#1 says:

    hunter1909:
    The idea just crossed my mind; suppose Oilers management wanted to tank this season?

    Nah. They don’t want to tank but they don’t actually want an elite team either.

    They want a squad that makes the playoffs off and on but much more importantly rakes in the dough. McDavid made that part possible and it is the only curse of having his generational talent on the team. They could run McDavid out there for a decade, not win anything, and come away having increased franchise value a ton as well as made a bunch of money year-over-year.

  102. Wilde says:

    hunter1909:
    The idea just crossed my mind; suppose Oilers management wanted to tank this season?

    Just alternate between lottery team and cup contender each season with a stacked ELC roster because ‘the margins are so thin now’.

    Genius.

  103. Moose says:

    OriginalPouzar:
    Yamamoto has been named WHL player of the week.

    Went to see Yamamoto in Everett last night. The kid is well and truly back on track. Dominant game, and best player on the ice every shift. His hockey IQ really stands out, thinks the game so quickly. He was on the puck all night hounding and stripping Everett D-men. Made a sensational play to setup the third goal, pushing a big Everett D (everyone is “big” to him) off the puck behind the net and kicking the puck with his skate out front for a tap in. Ran the PP with aplomb from the half-wall. Great anticipation and reading of the game all night long.

    Still needs to get a little stronger (core/leg strength) and improve his shot. If he gets an extra half-step in his game he’d be a guy you could eventually play with 97 because of the way he processes the game.

  104. GCW_69 says:

    Woogie63:
    Before next October we have a few important holes to solve

    xxxx- McDavid – xxxx Job one for PC to solve this with TALENT
    Lucic – Driasaitl – PuljarjaviExcited to watch this line, big, hold the puck, can score
    Khaira – Hopkins – Strome This line can play 16 minutes every night
    Calggiula -xxxx – KassianPK, aggressive center would fit the bill

    #makeconnorbetter

    Grabner- McDavid – Puljarjavi Job one for PC is to have a back up plan
    Lucic – Driasaitl – Versteeg
    Nelson – Hopkins – Strome This line can play 16 minutes every night
    Calggiula -Khaira – KassianPK, aggressive center would fit the bill

    All these other combinations would then be available:

    Nelson- McDavid – Puljarjavi
    Lucic – Driasaitl – Grabner
    Versteeg – Hopkins – Strome
    Calggiula -Khaira – Kassian

    Grabner- McDavid – Puljarjavi
    Lucic – Hopkins – Driasaitl
    Versteeg – Nelson – Strome
    Calggiula -Khaira – Kassian

    Grabner- McDavid – Driasaitl
    Lucic – Hopkins – Puljarjavi
    Versteeg – Nelson – Strome
    Calggiula -Khaira – Kassian

    TMac blender heaven.

  105. Buddy says:

    Hi LT

    I haven’t commented much here over the years but I’ve long been a regular reader. Just wanted to say I just signed up at The Athletic. Really looks terrific, and well worth the money. Let me take this opportunity to thank you for all the great content here day after day after day for all these years, and particularly for helping to keep all us Oilers fans less insane than we might otherwise be.

  106. ArmchairGM says:

    Bank Shot: If you can’t get a guy to re-sign to play with McDavid then we might as well move the team to Seattle.

    OEL would clearly be the best D we have so I don’t care if he’s left or right handed. Worry about that later.

    I don’t think we would need to give up Sekera/Klefbom, although giving up Sekera would actually be nice to save on cap space.

    With only one year left on his contract OEL would actually be available and won’t fetch as much in a trade as other premium defencemen.

    And those are the two big concerns. Most defencemen that the Oilers would want won’t be available, and ones who *may* be available in the right circumstance will require at least fair payment.

    GMs dealing star players as pending UFAs or with a year remaining on a contract typically always lose those trades.

    So Chiarelli should be in on it!

    OEL-Larsson
    Klefbom-Nurse
    Russel-Benning

    That looks like a pretty decent D-core. Better than current and projects better into the future.

    Since goal differential wins games, OEL wouldn’t be our best defenseman: that distinction would and does belong to Darnell Nurse.

  107. who says:

    GCW_69: Grabner- McDavid – Puljarjavi Job one for PC is to have a back up plan
    Lucic – Driasaitl – Versteeg
    Nelson – Hopkins – Strome This line can play 16 minutes every night
    Calggiula -Khaira – KassianPK, aggressive center would fit the bill

    All these other combinations would then be available:

    Nelson- McDavid – Puljarjavi
    Lucic – Driasaitl – Grabner
    Versteeg – Hopkins – Strome
    Calggiula -Khaira – Kassian

    Grabner- McDavid – Puljarjavi
    Lucic – Hopkins – Driasaitl
    Versteeg – Nelson – Strome
    Calggiula -Khaira – Kassian

    Grabner- McDavid – Driasaitl
    Lucic – Hopkins – Puljarjavi
    Versteeg – Nelson – Strome
    Calggiula -Khaira – Kassian

    TMac

    And what would you budget for Grabner, Versteeg and Nelson?
    Do you really see Grabner as a first line winger?
    Do you still see VersteeG as an effective player next season coming off another injury?
    You are bringing in a lot of players. Doubt that you can fit them all under the cap.

  108. Wilde says:

    Yamamoto’s highlights from the 4 point night last night are pretty funny, especially the 2nd and 3rd assists.

    https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=e7C4rCVD6KY

  109. Scungilli Slushy says:

    OriginalPouzar: I’m not sure if Khaira has more natural offensive ability that Strome but he has definitely shown more this season that I ever thought he had. He is definitely a better skater.

    I think slotting JJ in to the top 6 wing would be setting the team up for similar failures to what we’ve experienced this year. There may be no other option due to cap room (or having both Drai and Nuge in the top 6) – I guess we’ll see.

    Same issue with projecting Joe G. at 4C next year – he’s had an uneven first pro season and, frankly, a bit disappointing overall.

    Projecting Khaira in the top 6 and a player with zero NHL experience at 4C is making bets on internal development that didn’t work this year.

    Its an option, a risky one mind you.

    I don’t think they should but be prepared. Unless someone does PC some favours or a UFA does, and I think the teams are wary of helping the Oilers because a few smart adds would make them a real problem, he might be looking at gouging offers for trades.

    Also there aren’t many teams that fit the bill for a good RD. Basically Colorado and any other teams desperate for a quality centre. In Chiarelli’s favour is the league moving to skating which floats Nuge’s boat. The Jackets are thin at centre especially with Dubinsky failing and trading away Karlsson.

    The Jets may move Trouba or Myers but have centres. I wouldn’t trade Nuge or Klefbom for Myers. Too much injury history and I’m wary of oversized players these days because mobility. PC might be seeing Chara 2.0.

  110. Bank Shot says:

    ArmchairGM: Since goal differential wins games, OEL wouldn’t be out best defenseman: that distinction would and does belong to Darnell Nurse.

    Well if OEL plays with McDavid I suspect his goal differential goes supernova.

  111. leadfarmer says:

    ArmchairGM: Since goal differential wins games, OEL wouldn’t be out best defenseman: that distinction would and does belong to Darnell Nurse.

    And William Karlsson is the best player in the league. Am I doing this right?

  112. Scungilli Slushy says:

    who: Good news is that JP seems to be growing into that role this year so we may only have to find one top six forward moving forward.

    One thing that strikes me is we are all covetous of young players like JP. If he was a Flame 🔥 everyone would be apoplectic.

    Those young good players all make the same mistakes BUT get given at bats because speed and skill. We see their highlights but don’t see all of their whiffs.

    JP plays really well with Connor. He is a hound defensively which Connor needs. The only downside is the contract if he supernovas on his ELC because Connor. Slepy’s production with Connor is first class somebody smart here showed PP/60.

  113. Lowetide says:

    Buddy:
    Hi LT

    I haven’t commented much here over the years but I’ve long been a regular reader. Just wanted to say I just signed up at The Athletic. Really looks terrific, and well worth the money. Let me take this opportunity to thank you for all the great content here day after day after day for all these years, and particularly for helping to keep all us Oilers fans less insane than we might otherwise be.

    Buddy, thanks so much, appreciated. It was a difficult choice but an easy move and I’m so happy to see so many head over. What I found was the people who write for the Athletic that I knew accounted for 100 percent of my early reading. Now? I honestly spend hours.

  114. OriginalPouzar says:

    hunter1909: Milan Lucic we never heard the end of once he was drafted using the Oilers’ 2nd round pick which no doubt they threw away on some busted four flusher.

    We got Sergei Samsanov for a 2nd round pick that turned in to Milan Lucic.

    We make the deal again every day.

  115. Scungilli Slushy says:

    LMHF#1: Nah. They don’t want to tank but they don’t actually want an elite team either.

    They want a squad that makes the playoffs off and on but much more importantly rakes in the dough. McDavid made that part possible and it is the only curse of having his generational talent on the team. They could run McDavid out there for a decade, not win anything, and come away having increased franchise value a ton as well as made a bunch of money year-over-year.

    Money is King but sports franchises aren’t about that IMO. It’s an elite pissing contest club and a closed community. All about bragging rights for individuals owners. Perhaps corporations not controlled by the owner are different. Individual owners also want to make money. Pride is it for players and staff.

    For Katz Glory Days all over again.

    The question is are they current and updating what they view as valuable to winning? As somebody like Poile did, realizing the defensive orientation left them short on offense when it counted and he transformed his team with some really enviously smart trades.

    It’s not too late if the lights are on.

  116. Scungilli Slushy says:

    Pull off the rear view mirror, the question isn’t what’s happened (Drai is an overpay and they shouldn’t have traded Hall or for Reinhart) but what now? Who do they target to right the ship? Who is undervalued and therefore ideal?

  117. ArmchairGM says:

    GCW_69: Grabner- McDavid – Puljarjavi Job one for PC is to have a back up plan
    Lucic – Driasaitl – Versteeg
    Nelson – Hopkins – Strome This line can play 16 minutes every night
    Calggiula -Khaira – KassianPK, aggressive center would fit the bill

    All these other combinations would then be available:

    Nelson- McDavid – Puljarjavi
    Lucic – Driasaitl – Grabner
    Versteeg – Hopkins – Strome
    Calggiula -Khaira – Kassian

    Grabner- McDavid – Puljarjavi
    Lucic – Hopkins – Driasaitl
    Versteeg – Nelson – Strome
    Calggiula -Khaira – Kassian

    Grabner- McDavid – Driasaitl
    Lucic – Hopkins – Puljarjavi
    Versteeg – Nelson – Strome
    Calggiula -Khaira – Kassian

    TMac blender heaven.

    Ha ha, I like it. Not sold on Versteeg, however – I’m sure we could do much better than that.

  118. leadfarmer says:

    Scungilli Slushy:
    Pull off the rear view mirror, the question isn’t what’s happened (Drai is an overpay and they shouldn’t have traded Hall or for Reinhart) but what now? Who do they target to right the ship? Who is undervalued and therefore ideal?

    I got a feeling that the Tavares contract is going to blow such a huge hole in the cap structures that teams will be very happy having their stars signed beforehand.

  119. OmJo says:

    frjohnk: Some kids ask hockey players for autographs.
    My 3 year old kid asked Kailor for his Tshirt back.
    True story

    At least he’s picking on somebody his own size.

  120. Admiral Ackbar says:

    Great post LT. Leon deserves some love for those 5×5 numbers. I don’t think enough can be said about how pathetic special teams has been and PP points is suffering greatly because of it., for all players.

    Now I feel even better about getting my Leon jersey from China.

    My recent observation is, has TMac finally lost faith in Letestu? About time? Was Chia pushing TMac to ‘showcase’ Letestu before the deadline? If that were the case, I’d say his value has dropped, based on observable performance.

  121. OmJo says:

    Lowetide: Buddy, thanks so much, appreciated. It was a difficult choice but an easy move and I’m so happy to see so many head over. What I found was the people who write for the Athletic that I knew accounted for 100 percent of my early reading. Now? I honestly spend hours.

    My only issue with the athletic is I can’t find time to read everything. Hard enough keeping up here some days now.

  122. leadfarmer says:

    OmJo: At least he’s picking on somebody his own size.

    At some point we will enter the era of players being too small to check. I can already see a Chara cross check being at least a foot above his head

  123. Admiral Ackbar says:

    frjohnk: Some kids ask hockey players for autographs.
    My 3 year old kid asked Kailor for his Tshirt back.
    True story

    Your kid is my new god. Savage trolling. I love it!

  124. Admiral Ackbar says:

    leadfarmer: At some point we will enter the era of players being too small to check.I can already see a Chara cross check being at least a foot above his head

    Poor Nathan Gerbe played way before he’d have been relevant.

  125. ArmchairGM says:

    leadfarmer: And William Karlsson is the best player in the league.Am I doing this right?

    My point is that OEL is overrated.

  126. Scungilli Slushy says:

    leadfarmer: I got a feeling that the Tavares contract is going to blow such a huge hole in the cap structures that teams will be very happy having their stars signed beforehand.

    Yes inflation happens. Given expansion I think revenues continue to rise so cap will. The question for the Oilers is the where is value? Stralman delivered value for the Bolts because they recognized he helped even if not Hedman. And he didn’t cost the moon.

    Maybe Grabner is that although other than he has scored as much as assisted which indicates a scorer often, I don’t know if he’s a shooter . But he does PK and is deadly so I see a good fit so Connor doesn’t have to. And speed.

    There are players that can help, who are they?

    I think think looking at teams in distress for what they have to give is the route and if the don’t want to deal stand pat and let the existing talent grow. And wait one year for NMCs to come off as opposed to giving up more skill.

  127. ArmchairGM says:

    leadfarmer: I got a feeling that the Tavares contract is going to blow such a huge hole in the cap structures that teams will be very happy having their stars signed beforehand.

    People are talking about Tavares getting a similar contract to McDavid’s… that’s insanity. He’s not in the same stratosphere. And you guys think the Lucic contract is too much for too long for a soon-to-be declining, slow-moving player…

  128. JimmyV1965 says:

    HenryDrix: If a GM pays for the the promise of a young centre like Draisaitl (and RNH before him), they get criticized.If they pay for past performance (Lucic, Russell, Sekera) they get criticized.Tough crowd.

    Me, I would rather pay for promise of the future rather than past performance.To me, it’s a perspective of hope vs despair.LD may not end up being the player the team thinks he will be (hey, it happens, remember Yak).

    There is always a degree of speculation when signing players to long term contracts.“What can they be” or “can they be what they have shown in the past?”Tough questions that only time will answer.

    I wasnt privy to the LD negotiations and I doubt anyone on this blog was.Hard to judge if PC negotiated well or not.We can use comparables.Who would you use?

    Well said. Drai is going to be a beast. I think he’s having a meh year and he’s still producing. At some point, next year maybe the year after, he will put it altogether and absolutely dominate this league.

    Is he better then Taylor Hall? Probably not. Could he be better in a couple years? I think it’s possible for sure. Both players are exceptional talents and amongst the top
    5% to 7% in the league.

  129. leadfarmer says:

    ArmchairGM: My point is that OEL is overrated.

    yeah Erik Karlsson, Nik Leddy, Brent Burns, OEL all near bottom of league. Truly overrated company

  130. OriginalPouzar says:

    Tyler Vessel was named co-offensive player of the week in the NCHL (National Collegiate Hockey Conference – a Division I of the NCAA) – good stuff.

  131. OmJo says:

    ArmchairGM: People are talking about Tavares getting a similar contract to McDavid’s… that’s insanity. He’s not in the same stratosphere. And you guys think the Lucic contract is too much for too long for a soon-to-be declining, slow-moving player…

    I know I read this wrong and you aren’t comparing Tavares to Lucic and saying he’s a soon to be declining slow player.

    Right?

  132. OriginalPouzar says:

    LT – I forgot to ask you this a few days ago. In your prospect rankings, you had Samorukov ranked 15th and Berglund 8th with Lagesson at 12th.

    Is this because the Swedes are more mature and closer to NHL ready (potentially) or do you see them with higher ceilings or possibly more “sure things” than Samorukov?

  133. Oilman99 says:

    OriginalPouzar: I would like to move Khaira to the 4C position – he has shown the ability to play up the lineup but I think he would do great at the 4C and an increasing role on the PK. I think he’ll play well with Zack – some good speed and aggressiveness between the two and both have a bit of offensive skill (Khaira has shown WAY more puck skills this season than I thought he had).

    I’d rather have him start at 4C and earn his way up the lineup or move up for injury that slot him higher at the beginning.

    Kara does his best work in the corners, so is suited to the wing better.

  134. Oilman99 says:

    ArmchairGM: Ha ha, I like it. Not sold on Versteeg, however – I’m sure we could do much better than that.

    You have to look at Versteeg’s age not sure he will be effective very much longer.

  135. Gayfish says:

    OriginalPouzar:
    LT – I forgot to ask you this a few days ago.In your prospect rankings, you had Samorukov ranked 15th and Berglund 8th with Lagesson at 12th.

    Is this because the Swedes are more mature and closer to NHL ready (potentially) or do you see them with higher ceilings or possibly more “sure things” than Samorukov?

    Probably because we don’t all live in dreamland wrt mediocre prospects.

  136. OriginalPouzar says:

    Gayfish: Probably because we don’t all live in dreamland wrt mediocre prospects.

    Thanks for your input. I will wait for LT to provide some actual thoughts.

  137. Harpers Hair says:

    Gayfish: Probably because we don’t all live in dreamland wrt mediocre prospects.

    This.
    The Oilers have one of the poorest prospect piplelines in the league. Considering that so many other teams are in a much better position going forward, you have to think the Oilers will be playing catch up for the next several seasons.

  138. ArmchairGM says:

    OmJo: I know I read this wrong and you aren’t comparing Tavares to Lucic and saying he’s a soon to be declining slow player.

    Right?

    I just did. 😉

    Tavares has never been known for his speed, and he’ll be 28 before the start of his next contract, so signing him for 8 more years at $12.5M seems insane to me.

  139. ArmchairGM says:

    leadfarmer: yeah Erik Karlsson, Nik Leddy, Brent Burns, OEL all near bottom of league.Truly overrated company

    Now you’re just putting words in my mouth. I’m disappointed, Lead, you’re smarter than that.

  140. Harpers Hair says:

    OriginalPouzar: Thanks for your input.I will wait for LT to provide some actual thoughts.

    Calgary AHL RD Rasmus Andersson just won the skills competition with a 101.5 mph shot. Do the Oilers have a prospect like that?

  141. Oilman99 says:

    OriginalPouzar: Personally, I think its fantasy to think that we will plug both the top 6 winger hole and the 1/2RD hole this off-season, there simply isn’t enough cap space unless we are able to somehow get Lucic to waive his NMC and find a team to take him without giving us a bad contract back – then, of course, we also need to replace Lucic as 2LW.

    Personally, I look to fix the hole on 1/2RD over the forward winger spot.

    I see multiple players that could fill a top 6 winger spot in the next few years (Yamamoto, Benson, Maksimov, etc.) – no, not all will make it but there is a decent bet that one or two will emerge as legit top 6 forwards.

    I don’t see the same internal potential for right defence.Ethan Bear is the main guy but, in my opinion, he’s at least a few years away and I’m not sure if he’ll ever be able to fill at top 2 pairing role – potential for a 3RD and PP type guy.

    Mantha is the only other legit RD that’s playing pro.

    Fix the D externally and wait for the prospects to fix the top 6 winger spot internally.

    There is more potential to fix the d problem internally than there is at the winger position. Developing a scoring winger is still a year or two away. If one or two of the potential d prospects does not progres, the drafting done in the last three years is a total bust after McD.

  142. Scungilli Slushy says:

    OmJo: I know I read this wrong and you aren’t comparing Tavares to Lucic and saying he’s a soon to be declining slow player.

    Right?

    Drai is a comparable to Tavares in style and skill set.. He may very well keep pace or close enough at 8.5 instead of whatever Tavares gets which will be more.

  143. Oilman99 says:

    ArmchairGM: My point is that OEL is overrated.

    Look at the team he is playing on, it’s pretty hard to be a plus player with a supporting cast like that,plus the goal tending is not NHL quality.

  144. leadfarmer says:

    ArmchairGM: Now you’re just putting words in my mouth. I’m disappointed, Lead, you’re smarter than that.

    Since goal differential wins games, OEL wouldn’t be our best defenseman: that distinction would and does belong to Darnell Nurse. Said at 4:54 pm.
    Goal differential equals +/-.
    I inserted nothing.
    Goal differential is a poor way to judge players especially defensemen on poorly defensive teams with leaky goalies

  145. leadfarmer says:

    Scungilli Slushy: Drai is a comparable to Tavares in style and skill set.. He may very well keep pace or close enough at 8.5 instead of whatever Tavares gets which will be more.

    The better question is how many more NHLers does Chia have to send to the Islanders to keep Tavares on that team.

  146. NYC-Back-to-Tokyo Oil (Gentleman Backpacker) says:

    Scungilli Slushy: Drai is a comparable to Tavares in style and skill set.. He may very well keep pace or close enough at 8.5 instead of whatever Tavares gets which will be more.

    5 RFA years and 3 UFA years are not comparable to 7 or 8 UFA years. Also, Drai has not had a Hart nominated season yet. I would not put him on Tavares’ level at this time.
    Tavares, as a UFA should make as much or more than McDavid as Connor’s deal included RFA years. McDavid’s UFA years are worth the max contract.

  147. Bling says:

    Great post, LT.

    Another thing is the value-added component that a guy like Draisaitl brings with respect to player development.

    He may be making 8.5 million, but it sure is nice to be able to give him rookie wingers like Khaira and Pulju and watch them exceed expectations. Drai doesn’t deserve all the credit for that (the players themselves deserve the bulk of it), but he certainly plays a part.

    He has taken some criticism from his own coach this year as well (probably undeserved), and handled it like a professional.

    No complaints from me in year one of that deal.

  148. OriginalPouzar says:

    Harpers Hair: This.
    The Oilers have one of the poorest prospect piplelines in the league. Considering that so many other teams are in a much better position going forward, you have to think the Oilers will be playing catch up for the next several seasons.

    I fail to see what any of that has to do regarding the ranking among three Oiler prospect D.

  149. OriginalPouzar says:

    Harpers Hair: Calgary AHL RDRasmus Andersson just won the skills competition with a 101.5 mph shot. Do the Oilers have a prospect like that?

    I fail to see what Andersson has to do with a question regarding the ranking of three Oilers prospect dmen internally.

  150. OriginalPouzar says:

    Oilman99: There is more potential to fix the d problem internally than there is at the winger position. Developing a scoring winger is still a year or two away. If one or two of the potential d prospects does not progres, the drafting done in the last three years is a total bust after McD.

    I disagree – dmen generally take longer to develop. I fully expect Bear, Jones and Mantra to each spend all of next year in the AHL and they would be far from busts. 3rd round drafted dmen should be expected to take a good four years post draft until ready for NHL action.

  151. Bling says:

    I disagree that the prospect pipeline is as weak as some make it out to be, as the Oilers have some of their best young players playing on the team.

    Puljujarvi, Draisaitl, McDavid and Nurse are all 22 and younger. Yamamoto has already made the NHL and will probably stick next year.

  152. Scungilli Slushy says:

    NYC-Back-to-Tokyo Oil (Gentleman Backpacker): 5 RFA years and 3 UFA years are not comparable to 7 or 8 UFA years. Also, Drai has not had a Hart nominated season yet. I would not put him on Tavares’ level at this time.
    Tavares, as a UFA should make as much or more than McDavid as Connor’s deal included RFA years. McDavid’s UFA years are worth the max contract.

    All true. But who is going to score more and that matters. Drai will keep pace and because age will seem like a deal at some point. 5 years age for heavy legged players is ‘material’. Especially in this climate.

    ~27-30 are the worst ages to resign franchise players or UFAs – typically in peak career wise and at their most expensive, and very vulnerable to falling off. Better at the 27 end if you have to on average.

    Ideally players get extended and have them under contract into their low 30’s and trade them at max value and replenish, other than faces of the league like McDavid. Agents are on to this I’m sure.

  153. Bling says:

    Harpers Hair: Calgary AHL RDRasmus Andersson just won the skills competition with a 101.5 mph shot. Do the Oilers have a prospect like that?

    Ethan Bear (RHD) at age 20. 11 points in 26 games = 0.42 PPG.

    Rasmus Andersson (RHD) at age 20. 22 points in 54 games = 0.41 PPG.

  154. Bank Shot says:

    Scungilli Slushy: All true. But who is going to score more and that matters. Drai will keep pace and because age will seem like a deal at some point.

    Will he though?

    Eberle and RNH never became good deals.

    If they were going to pay Draisaitl that much they would have been better off on a 2-3 year bridge and then sign him for 8 years after that. I doubt he would have increased his value that much over $8.5 million.

  155. Harpers Hair says:

    OriginalPouzar: I fail to see what Andersson has to do with a question regarding the ranking of three Oilers prospect dmen internally.

    If you rank everything internally you’re missing the point. The Oilers play against other teams.

  156. Harpers Hair says:

    Bling: Ethan Bear (RHD) at age 20. 11 points in 26 games = 0.42 PPG.

    Rasmus Andersson (RHD) at age 20. 22 points in 54 games = 0.41 PPG.

    Might be true but the injury issue is a worry.

  157. Bank Shot says:

    Harpers Hair: Might be true but the injury issue is a worry.

    Well at least he’s not a fatty like Rasmus.

  158. godot10 says:

    Eberle’s and Nugent-Hopkin’s deals are good deals.

    Eberle production is high and consistent and more than worthy of the salary he is getting. Nugent-Hopkins is deal is going to be a bargain for the next three years once the next cycle of centre contracts are signed.

    Lucic’s contract wasn’t a good deal ever.

  159. Harpers Hair says:

    Bank Shot: Well at least he’s not a fatty like Rasmus.

    Yeah…6’1″ 215 can be a problem for an NHL defenseman 🙂

  160. who says:

    Scungilli Slushy: I don’t think they should but be prepared. Unless someone does PC some favours or a UFA does, and I think the teams are wary of helping the Oilers because a few smart adds would make them a real problem, he might be looking at gouging offers for trades.

    Also there aren’t many teams that fit the bill for a good RD. Basically Colorado and any other teams desperate for a quality centre. In Chiarelli’s favour is the league moving to skating which floats Nuge’s boat. The Jackets are thin at centre especially with Dubinsky failing and trading away Karlsson.

    The Jets may move Trouba or Myers but have centres. I wouldn’t trade Nuge or Klefbom for Myers. Too much injury history and I’m wary of oversized players these days because mobility. PC might be seeing Chara 2.0.

    Mobility is not an issue with Myers.
    Injury history and only 1 or 2 years remaining on contract would be a bigger concern for me.

  161. who says:

    Harpers Hair: Calgary AHL RDRasmus Andersson just won the skills competition with a 101.5 mph shot. Do the Oilers have a prospect like that?

    Don’t know anything about Andersson.
    But if you are rating him as a great prospect just because he shoots the puck 100 mph I don’t think you have a future in scouting.

  162. Bling says:

    Interesting stat from Corsica:

    Of the top 16 even strength scorers who have played at least 300 minutes at even strength this season, only three have ever switched teams.

    William Karlsson, Taylor Hall, and Jordan Eberle.

    Gulp.

  163. VOR says:

    Harpers Hair: Yeah…6’1″ 215 can be a problem for an NHL defenseman

    I think Rasmus is going to be a star in the NHL but let’s admit he has a weight and conditioning problem. When your GM takes shots at you in public you know there is a problem. Given he isn’t a great skater Andersson can’t give away any ice playing above his optimal weight.

    His shot is moving fast but he isn’t highly accurate. He also telegraphs the crap out of it. And it takes forever for him to get it off.

    Rasmus is, however, a great passer and wonderful against forecheck pressure.

    But do we talk about that, nope. It is the shot all the time.

    So I also want to give his shot performance some perspective. Kyle Bigos was officially clocked at 104 miles per hour. I don’t notice him playing in the NHL. In fact, there are at least six d playing in the AHL who have been clocked at speeds greater than 101 mph. Two are prospects, four are journeymen.

    Having a canon gets you noticed. It doesn’t make you a player. Rasmus Andersson is a player, with or without the canon and with or without a few extra pounds. But I would say his career will go better if he can stay at optimal body weight and improve his fitness regime. And learn to get the puck away quicker, more accurately, and to disguise his release.

  164. JimmyV1965 says:

    Bank Shot: Will he though?

    Eberle and RNH never became good deals.

    If they were going to pay Draisaitl that much they would have been better off on a 2-3 year bridge and then sign him for 8 years after that. I doubt he would have increased his value that much over $8.5 million.

    In two years from now Drai could easily be an $11 mill player. With the cap going up and inflation, salaries will certainly rise. I think you can argue that Chia overpayed him, but this is one of the only times I think it will work in his favour.

    If they signed him to a bridge deal and he averages 65 points in three years, he gets $8, just like Johanssen in Nashville. And that’s not factoring in inflation. So let’s say $8.5 mill.

    If he averages 75 points for three years his next contract is $10 mill. If he excels in the playoffs like last year it could be $12 mill.

    Chia has done some boneheaded things, but signing Drai long term isn’t one of them.

  165. JimmyV1965 says:

    godot10:
    Eberle’s and Nugent-Hopkin’s deals are good deals.

    Eberle production is high and consistent and more than worthy of the salary he is getting.Nugent-Hopkins is deal is going to be a bargain for the next three years once the next cycle of centre contracts are signed.

    Lucic’s contract wasn’t a good deal ever.

    Agreed. Even if you argue they were overpaid, by how much. $1 mill? These contracts look great compared to Lucic.

  166. Pescador says:

    JimmyV1965: In two years from now Drai could easily be an $11 mill player. With the cap going up and inflation, salaries will certainly rise. I think you can argue that Chia overpayed him, but this is one of the only times I think it will work in his favour.

    If they signed him to a bridge deal and he averages 65 points in three years, he gets $8, just like Johanssen in Nashville. And that’s not factoring in inflation. So let’s say $8.5 mill.

    If he averages 75 points for three years his next contract is $10 mill. If he excels in the playoffs like last year it could be $12 mill.

    Chia has done some boneheaded things, but signing Drai long term isn’t one of them.

    Excellent point, shame about that McDavid ‘overpay’

  167. Bank Shot says:

    godot10:
    Eberle’s and Nugent-Hopkin’s deals are good deals.

    Eberle production is high and consistent and more than worthy of the salary he is getting.Nugent-Hopkins is deal is going to be a bargain for the next three years once the next cycle of centre contracts are signed.

    Lucic’s contract wasn’t a good deal ever.

    They are good deals compared to what? Lucic?

    If your standard for good contract is to compare their contracts to another mediocre contract then you are setting the bar pretty low.

    They aren’t good deals compared to all the guys that signed contracts around the same time as them (Seguin, Hall, Duchene, Mackinnon, Tavares, etc) and they aren’t good deals compared to all the young guys that are signing contracts now (Pastrnk, Gaudreau, Schiefele, Monahan, Huberdeau, Barkov, etc), and they aren’t even good deals compared to guys their age or older that have just signed new deals within the last couple of years ( Radulov, Marchand, Tyler Johnson, Jaden Schwartz, etc).

    RNH is never going to be a bargain over the next 3 seasons when you have have 30 other guys in the league at forward producing as much or more for less money.

    Guys like Johnson, and Couturier and Kadri are bargains.

    If RNH were making that kind of money he’d be a bargain, but he’s not close. He’s been over paid for years, and now you could say in his last 3 years he’ll be paid fairly. That is only if you consider his next three years as a fresh free agent signing, but his contract as a whole has been a major failure.

  168. JimmyV1965 says:

    Bank Shot: They are good deals compared to what? Lucic?

    If your standard for good contract is to compare their contracts to another mediocre contract then you are setting the bar pretty low.

    They aren’t good deals compared to all the guys that signed contracts around the same time as them (Seguin, Hall, Duchene, Mackinnon, Tavares, etc) and they aren’t good deals compared to all the young guys that are signing contracts now (Pastrnk, Gaudreau, Schiefele, Monahan, Huberdeau, Barkov, etc), and they aren’t even good deals compared to guys their age or older that have just signed new deals within the last couple of years ( Radulov, Marchand, Tyler Johnson, Jaden Schwartz, etc).

    RNH is never going to be a bargain over the next 3 seasons when you have have 30 other guys in the league at forward producing as much or more for less money.

    Guys like Johnson, and Couturier and Kadri are bargains.

    If RNH were making that kind of money he’d be a bargain, but he’s not close. He’s been over paid for years, and now you could say in his last 3 years he’ll be paid fairly. That is only ifyou consider his next three years as a fresh free agent signing, but his contract as a whole has been a major failure.

    The thing with cherry picking it’s easy to do. This is just a sample of the bad contracts out there.

    Toews $10.5
    Perry $8.7
    Weber $7.9
    Nash $7.9
    Parise $7.6
    Ryan $7.3
    Statsny $7.0
    Pheanuef $7.0
    Seabrook $6.9

  169. Bank Shot says:

    JimmyV1965: In two years from now Drai could easily be an $11 mill player. With the cap going up and inflation, salaries will certainly rise. I think you can argue that Chia overpayed him, but this is one of the only times I think it will work in his favour.

    If they signed him to a bridge deal and he averages 65 points in three years, he gets $8, just like Johanssen in Nashville. And that’s not factoring in inflation. So let’s say $8.5 mill.

    If he averages 75 points for three years his next contract is $10 mill. If he excels in the playoffs like last year it could be $12 mill.

    Chia has done some boneheaded things, but signing Drai long term isn’t one of them.

    This is the kind of argument that had us all thinking that the Eberle and RNH contracts would be great. But they never were.

    Are the Oilers going to be in the playoffs next year? They will be hard pressed to improve the team externally. If Draisaitl was on a contract that started with a 5 for the next 2 seasons they would have a lot more cap flexibility and they would know for sure if he is worth an 8 year contract.

    Hopefully it works out, but its far from a sure thing.

  170. Bank Shot says:

    JimmyV1965: The thing with cherry picking it’s easy to do. This is just a sample of the bad contracts out there.

    Toews $10.5
    Perry $8.7
    Weber $7.9Nash $7.9
    Parise $7.6
    Ryan $7.3
    Statsny $7.0
    Pheanuef $7.0
    Seabrook $6.9

    No cherry picking is necessary.

    RNH is 25th in terms of cap hits among centers and 40 something in points per game. And this is in a good year for him.

    That’s not a bargain. When there are 20-25 other NHL teams that are getting better value out of one of their 1st or 2nd line centers, how can RNH’s contract ever be considered a bargain?

  171. JimmyV1965 says:

    Bank Shot: No cherry picking is necessary.

    RNH is 25th in terms of cap hits among centers and 40 something in points per game. And this is in a good year for him.

    That’s not a bargain. When there are 20-25 other NHL teams that are getting better value out of one of their 1st or 2nd line centers, how can RNH’s contract ever be considered a bargain?

    Geez, it’s late. I forgot what we’re even arguing about. I never said it was a good contract or a bargain. But in the realm of bad contracts, it’s pretty meh. Same with Eberle. I said they’re overpaid by $1 mill. Maybe it’s $1.5. At least they’re useful players. Even the Lucic contract now isn’t horrible. It will be soon though.

  172. OriginalPouzar says:

    Harpers Hair: If you rank everything internally you’re missing the point. The Oilers play against other teams.

    No, you were missing my point. I was simply asking a question regarding LT’s ranking of Samorukov vis-a-vis Lagesson and Berglund. It has NOTHING to do with how our prospect pool ranks compared to other teams or Rasmus Andersson.

    Those comment were made to simply take another shot at the organization. I’m not speaking to (or denying) the strength of our overall prospect pool, I’m simply asking a question and looking to discuss an internal ranking.

  173. OriginalPouzar says:

    Harpers Hair: Might be true but the injury issue is a worry.

    He’s had one concussion – he’s recovered and is playing and playing well.

    He played full seasons in junior – yes, he had a broken hand in the playoffs which he played through – as many players play through injuries in the playoffs.

    His injury history is no more than any normal player.

    You are now completely stretching to do anything you can to post something negative about the prospects and individual prospects.

  174. hunter1909 says:

    godot10: Nugent-Hopkins is deal is going to be a bargain for the next three years once the next cycle of centre contracts are signed.

    RNH in no freaking way is a 6 million dollar player nor has he ever been. More like a 3 million dollar player with high value.

    No, RNH is that player you have to have faith in, season after season, as he slowly figures everything out and the trouble with that is he’s probably going to peak long after he’s left Edmonton who are sick of overpaying etc.

  175. Wilde says:

    OriginalPouzar,

    Morning OP.

    Who do you want the Oilers to draft out of the defensemen this year?

    I go like this:

    Boqvist
    Hughes
    Wilde
    Bouchard
    Dobson

  176. hunter1909 says:

    PS: Just like Edmonton fans got sick of Eberle, who wasn’t developed properly and as a result ends up with glaring holes in his otherwise excellent game. Turning up a few times in Brooklyn woke Ebs up in a hurry, and now he’s a real leader for his new team – something he never really was in Edmonton.

    Chalk up another failed player who was featured in “Oil Change” ha ha ha (but true!)

  177. hunter1909 says:

    Wilde:
    OriginalPouzar,

    Morning OP.

    Who do you want the Oilers to draft out of the defensemen this year?

    I go like this:

    Boqvist
    Hughes
    Wilde
    Bouchard
    Dobson

    That outstanding Swede you don’t include?

  178. Wilde says:

    hunter1909: That outstanding Swede you don’t include?

    What is wrong with you?

    Are you trying to jinx our lottery luck?

  179. GMB3 says:

    Matt Benning ripped one 98 MPH in the Oilers skills competition last year IIRC.

  180. GMB3 says:

    hunter1909:
    PS: Just like Edmonton fans got sick of Eberle, who wasn’t developed properly and as a result ends up with glaring holes in his otherwise excellent game. Turning up a few times in Brooklyn woke Ebs up in a hurry, and now he’s a real leader for his new team – something he never really was in Edmonton.

    Chalk up another failed player who was featured in “Oil Change” ha ha ha (but true!)

    You create the most interesting narratives I’ve ever seen. Isn’t he producing at basically his career average rate?

  181. GMB3 says:

    hunter1909: RNH in no freaking way is a 6 million dollar player nor has he ever been. More like a 3 million dollar player with high value.

    No, RNH is that player you have to have faith in, season after season, as he slowly figures everything out and the trouble with that is he’s probably going to peak long after he’s left Edmonton who are sick of overpaying etc.

    RNH is worth only 3 million? Okay den

  182. hunter1909 says:

    GMB3: You create the most interesting narratives I’ve ever seen. Isn’t he producing at basically his career average rate?

    No idea. Like many, I was interested when the NYI were doing great, but now they’re regressing so who knows lol

  183. hunter1909 says:

    GMB3: RNH is worth only 3 million? Okay den

    The operative term here is: “more like”

  184. OriginalPouzar says:

    hunter1909: RNH in no freaking way is a 6 million dollar player nor has he ever been. More like a 3 million dollar player with high value.

    No, RNH is that player you have to have faith in, season after season, as he slowly figures everything out and the trouble with that is he’s probably going to peak long after he’s left Edmonton who are sick of overpaying etc.

    There is no way that RNH is a $3M centerman – its just as “silly” to suggest he’s a $3M centerman than him being a bargain at $6M.

  185. OriginalPouzar says:

    Wilde:
    OriginalPouzar,

    Morning OP.

    Who do you want the Oilers to draft out of the defensemen this year?

    I go like this:

    Boqvist
    Hughes
    Wilde
    Bouchard
    Dobson

    Frankly, I think that there is more risk with the top D this year than the forwards – well, there is always more risk with D but I think moreso this year – some high end offensive potential but also some bust potential.

    I think our management needs to prioritize one top 4RHD this summer/spring and, aside from Dahlin, we are at least a few years away from any drafted d-man making an impact at the NHL level so I would prefer to grab a forward in this year’s draft. Assuming we don’t get first overall, I would draft one of the following 3 before a d-man:

    Zadina
    Tkachuk
    Svechnikov

    As far as the D, I would probably go with Hughes first over Boqvist.

    I worry about the fact that Boqvist is playing in the junior circuit currently and how far away that is from the NHL.

  186. OriginalPouzar says:

    hunter1909:
    PS: Just like Edmonton fans got sick of Eberle, who wasn’t developed properly and as a result ends up with glaring holes in his otherwise excellent game. Turning up a few times in Brooklyn woke Ebs up in a hurry, and now he’s a real leader for his new team – something he never really was in Edmonton.

    Chalk up another failed player who was featured in “Oil Change” ha ha ha (but true!)

    How was Eberle not developed properly?

    He was sent back to Regina for 2 full seasons after he was drafted.

    He put up over 40 points as a rookie in the NHL after that (clearly ready for the NHL, not needing the AHL).

    There wasn’t much shelter when he got the NHL but his development by the organization was just fine.

  187. Wilde says:

    hunter1909: The operative term here is: “more like”

    RNH is right in range with other 6M guys, and miles from the average 3M guy. It’s not a defensible claim either way.

    3M forwards PPG:

    Komarov: .254
    Gagner: ; .448
    Pageau: .348
    Cogliano .438
    Kruger: .114
    Coyle: .576
    Smith: .333
    Eller: .479

    Nuge: .674

    I’m actually one of the (probably) few that’s in favour of trading Nuge while his value is high, but just trashing him based on his salary without even looking to see if it’s remotely correct is trademark Oilers fan.

  188. Wilde says:

    OriginalPouzar: Frankly, I think that there is more risk with the top D this year than the forwards – well, there is always more risk with D but I think moreso this year – some high end offensive potential but also some bust potential.

    I think our management needs to prioritize one top 4RHD this summer/spring and, aside from Dahlin, we are at least a few years away from any drafted d-man making an impact at the NHL level so I would prefer to grab a forward in this year’s draft. Assuming we don’t get first overall, I would draft one of the following 3 before a d-man:

    Zadina
    Tkachuk
    Svechnikov

    As far as the D, I would probably go with Hughes first over Boqvist.

    I worry about the fact that Boqvist is playing in the junior circuit currently and how far away that is from the NHL.

    The scenario where the Oilers draft a defenseman is if all those forwards are already off the board, so that’s logically ruled out because all of those guys are going to go before the non-Dahlin defensemen. The question is basically ‘who do you draft if the Oilers are outside of the top 5, non Wahlstrom edition’.

    Also I’d like to touch on the ‘few years away’ theory for defensemen, if you have an Athletic subscription I’d highly recommend Tyler Dellows article on top four defensemen’s arrival time:

    https://theathletic.com/212763/2018/01/18/dellow-when-do-defencemen-make-it/

    I understand the sentiment of not rushing guys, but you can find out awfully fast what you probably have in the modern NHL, looking at dmen drafted early in the last few years:

    Ekblad: straight to the NHL, top pairing
    Hanifin: straight to the NHL, 3rd pairing
    Provorov: 1 year junior, then top pairing NHL (stud #1D imo)
    Werenski: 1 year big ten(same team as Hughes) then top pairing NHL(stud top pairing guy)
    Chabot: 1 year junior, dozen games AHL then NHL top 4
    Sergachev: 1 year junior, then NHL top pairing
    McAvoy: 1 year BU, then NHL top pairing
    Chychrun: straight to the NHL
    Girard: 1 year junior, NHL(same size as Hughes)

    As for 2017, you can quote me that Heiskanen and Makar will be everyday NHLers next year barring injury.

  189. ArmchairGM says:

    leadfarmer: Since goal differential wins games, OEL wouldn’t be our best defenseman: that distinction would and does belong to Darnell Nurse.Said at 4:54 pm.
    Goal differential equals +/-.
    I inserted nothing.
    Goal differential is a poor way to judge players especially defensemen on poorly defensive teams with leaky goalies

    leadfarmer: yeah Erik Karlsson, Nik Leddy, Brent Burns, OEL all near bottom of league.Truly overrated company

    So that’s “inserting nothing” now? Oooo. And here I was under the impression that this forum is the place for sharing intelligent thought.

  190. ArmchairGM says:

    Oilman99: Look at the team he is playing on, it’s pretty hard to be a plus player with a supporting cast like that,plus the goal tending is not NHL quality.

    It’s a bad team, very true, but he isn’t making as much difference to that squad as say Karlsson or Doughty would. To lump him in with those players as an “elite” defensemen is to overrate him, IMO. If you project OEL onto the Oilers roster you get Klefbom x 1.5, and that’s with Oscar currently playing at 75%.

    Don’t get me wrong, I think OEL is a good defenseman, but to give up material assets for *1 year* of that player when you already have Klefbom on the roster long term at a huge discount is poor management. Also, even with OEL, Nurse is the guy I’d want out there with a minute left protecting a 1-goal lead – which was my point about OEL not being the #1 guy if he played in Edmonton.

  191. ArmchairGM says:

    who: Mobility is not an issue with Myers.
    Injury history and only 1 or 2 years remaining on contract would be a bigger concern for me.

    Yeah, I agree. I think Sekera for Myers is the direction to take.

    *warning – look at Myers 5×5 stats before doing this deal though. I can’t say I’ve studied them, but I did notice that the bulk of his boxcars are PP points.

  192. hunter1909 says:

    Wilde: RNH is right in range with other 6M guys, and miles from the average 3M guy. It’s not a defensible claim either way.

    3M forwards PPG:

    Komarov: .254
    Gagner: ; .448
    Pageau: .348
    Cogliano .438
    Kruger: .114
    Coyle: .576
    Smith: .333
    Eller: .479

    Nuge: .674

    I’m actually one of the (probably) few that’s in favour of trading Nuge while his value is high, but just trashing him based on his salary without even looking to see if it’s remotely correct is trademark Oilers fan.

    Nice work, but like I stated, I used 3 million as a talking point only. But RNH hasn’t been worth 6 million either, which is the point am making.

  193. OriginalPouzar says:

    Wilde: The scenario where the Oilers draft a defenseman is if all those forwards are already off the board, so that’s logically ruled out because all of those guys are going to go before the non-Dahlin defensemen. The question is basically ‘who do you draft if the Oilers are outside of the top 5, non Wahlstrom edition’.

    Also I’d like to touch on the ‘few years away’ theory for defensemen, if you have an Athletic subscription I’d highly recommend Tyler Dellows article on top four defensemen’s arrival time:

    https://theathletic.com/212763/2018/01/18/dellow-when-do-defencemen-make-it/

    I understand the sentiment of not rushing guys, but you can find out awfully fast what you probably have in the modern NHL, looking at dmen drafted early in the last few years:

    Ekblad: straight to the NHL, top pairing
    Hanifin: straight to the NHL, 3rd pairing
    Provorov: 1 year junior, then top pairing NHL (stud #1D imo)
    Werenski: 1 year big ten(same team as Hughes) then top pairing NHL(stud top pairing guy)
    Chabot: 1 year junior, dozen games AHL then NHL top 4
    Sergachev: 1 year junior, then NHL top pairing
    McAvoy: 1 year BU, then NHL top pairing
    Chychrun: straight to the NHL
    Girard: 1 year junior, NHL(same size as Hughes)

    As for 2017, you can quote me that Heiskanen and Makar will be everyday NHLers next year barring injury.

    Yes, I have a membership to The Athletic and will read Dellow’s article a little later today (and likely have already perused it).

    You are right, I’ve probably over-stated the position re: d-men always being a few years away. Of course there are exceptions which, in my mind are generally limited to the top end studs (Hedman, Ekblad, etc.). Your list does open my eyes a bit, thank you for that.

    At the same time, except for a couple, most needed another year post-draft before they are NHL ready and I would argue the Hanafin hasn’t quite lived up to expectations.

    I just look at the size (and in certain cases, the league) of the top 10 d-men and I worry about rushing them and bust potential. With that said, there is very high end, in particular high end offensive talent, in the top 10 and I can’t say I wouldn’t be super excited for a Hughes or even a Borquist.

    I don’t think we could count on any of them being in our lineup next year, in particular as 1 or 2RD whereas there is more of a chance that one of the top 3 forwards (if we win the 2nd or 3rd lottery) could immediately fill a top 6 role for the Oilers (must earn it though).

  194. ArmchairGM says:

    Wilde:
    OriginalPouzar,

    Morning OP.

    Who do you want the Oilers to draft out of the defensemen this year?

    I go like this:

    Boqvist
    Hughes
    Wilde
    Bouchard
    Dobson

    I would rank them thus:

    Boqvist
    Hughes
    Bouchard
    Dobson
    Wilde

    I will admit that Hughes is probably more NHL-ready than Boqvist – and therefore more likely to be in the NHL next season – but I think that Boqvist is the more dynamic player and has a higher ceiling. Drafting is a long-term-outlook game, so that’s why I would put Boqvist at the top of this group. It’s an interesting conundrum, though, as all of these young men project to be very good NHL players who will likely all have long careers. You really can’t go wrong on any of them, IMO, but if you’re sitting there with the 6th pick and all these men are still on the board, you’d be making a mistake to take Wilde in that spot.

  195. jake70 says:

    hunter1909: Nice work, but like I stated, I used 3 million as a talking point only. But RNH hasn’t been worth 6 million either, which is the point am making.

    Signed (MacTavish) his 7yrx6M deal prior to 13-14 season. Just came off a 40 game lockout season with 4 goals and 20 assists for 24 points in those 40 games.

    That contract kicked in 2014-15 season. The salary cap that year was 64M.

    Those lockout season stats suggest he should have been bridged no? But a year before Tambellini gave Ebs and Hall their 6M per deals so to complete the trifecta….

    Tough call, glad I am not making GM decisions.

  196. Wilde says:

    OriginalPouzar: Yes, I have a membership to The Athletic and will read Dellow’s article a little later today (and likely have already perused it).

    You are right, I’ve probably over-stated the position re: d-men always being a few years away.Of course there are exceptions which, in my mind are generally limited to the top end studs (Hedman, Ekblad, etc.). Your list does open my eyes a bit, thank you for that.

    At the same time, except for a couple, most needed another year post-draft before they are NHL ready and I would argue the Hanafin hasn’t quite lived up to expectations.

    I just look at the size (and in certain cases, the league) of the top 10 d-men and I worry about rushing them and bust potential.With that said, there is very high end, in particular high end offensive talent, in the top 10 and I can’t say I wouldn’t be super excited for a Hughes or even a Borquist.

    I don’t think we could count on any of them being in our lineup next year, in particular as 1 or 2RD whereas there is more of a chance that one of the top 3 forwards (if we win the 2nd or 3rd lottery) could immediately fill a top 6 role for the Oilers (must earn it though).

    Yeah, but since the draft is gonna go something like this(based on what we know right now):

    Dahlin
    Svech/Zadina/Tkachuk
    Svech/Zadina/Tkachuk
    Svech/Zadina/Tkachuk

    And then the defensemen and Wahlstrom.

    Which is why the question isn’t Winger vs Defensemen for me you take the forward because you’re top 4 and it’s BPA, it’s “if we’re outside the top four and rule out Wahlstrom who do we go for?’

    Personally the only guy I’d bet on being in the NHL next season is Bouchard, just because OHL into NHL is the most common for 18 year olds, among the leagues these guys are from. Of course, if I’m the GM/Coach I don’t rule out anyone taking a spot for 9 games on merit.

  197. Wilde says:

    hunter1909: Nice work, but like I stated, I used 3 million as a talking point only. But RNH hasn’t been worth 6 million either, which is the point am making.

    Yeah but that’s what I’m saying, he’s in range with non-florida 6m deals for forwards.

    Zetterberg: 0.667
    Hall: 1.11
    Eberle: 0.780
    Saad: 0.469
    Backes: 0.633
    Duchene: 0.531
    Pavelski: 0.708
    Staal: 0.612

    and on and on and on, anyways Nuge is right there at 0.674.

    It’s not a steal, but it’s certainly far down the list of problem contracts on this team.

  198. Bank Shot says:

    Wilde: Yeah but that’s what I’m saying, he’s in range with non-florida 6m deals for forwards.

    Zetterberg: 0.667
    Hall: 1.11
    Eberle: 0.780
    Saad: 0.469
    Backes: 0.633
    Duchene: 0.531
    Pavelski: 0.708
    Staal: 0.612

    and on and on and on, anyways Nuge is right there at 0.674.

    It’s not a steal, but it’s certainly far down the list of problem contracts on this team.

    I’d say he’s 3rd behind Lucic and Russell in terms of being a problem contract. You could argue Draisaitl or Sekera instead.

    I wouldn’t say anyone else is a contract problem.

    There are 58 forwards on contracts ranging from 5 to 7 million.

    RNH is 29th in production this season out of that group.

    14 of the guys outproducing him are 25 or younger. 5 of the guys scoring less are 25 or younger.

    It’s gone from being a terrible contract, to being a mediocre contract so that’s progress I guess. It certainly won’t cover the bet as a whole.

  199. godot10 says:

    jake70: Signed (MacTavish) his 7yrx6M deal prior to 13-14 season. Just came off a 40 game lockout season with 4 goals and 20 assists for 24 points in those 40 games.

    That contract kicked in 2014-15 season. The salary cap that year was 64M.

    Those lockout season stats suggest he should have been bridged no?Buta year before Tambellini gave Ebsand Hall their 6M per deals so to complete the trifecta….

    Tough call, glad I am not making GM decisions.

    Those lockout number were produced by a player with only one and a half arms. He had shoulder labrum surgery after the season.

Leave a Reply

Want to join the discussion?
Feel free to contribute!
© Copyright - Lowetide.ca