G53 2017-18: Oilers at Ducks

We’re about two months away from exit meetings and possibly ownership following through on changes. It might impact the front office, coaching staff, scouting staff, it will absolutely impact the roster. What is the state of the organization? My suspicion is that one or two plans are sitting on the owner’s desk, or maybe rattling around in his mind. Todd McLellan and Peter Chiarelli may or may not arrive at training camp in the fall in their current roles, but in my opinion a lot of their story depends on the next 30 games. An 82-85 point season is easier to defend than something around 75. These games matter to the Edmonton Oilers. Including tonight.

THE ATHLETIC!

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GOOD VIBRATIONS, YEAR OVER YEAR

  • February 2016: 2-1-0, goal differential +5 (4 points)
  • February 2017: 1-2-0, goal differential -3 (2 points)
  • February 2018: 1-1-1, goal differential 0 (3 points)
  • February 7, 2016: NYI 8, Edmonton 1 (Source)
  • February 11, 2017: Chicago 5, Edmonton 1 (Source)

This year’s Oilers are not running out of step with either of the two previous McLellan teams, no strong start to any month for Edmonton in recent years. Does Talbot go tonight and Montoya tomorrow, or vice versa?

AFTER 52, YEAR OVER YEAR

  • Oilers 15-16: 21-26-5, goal differential -21 (47 points)
  • Oilers 16-17: 28-16-8, goal differential +18 (64 points)
  • Oilers 17-18: 23-25-4, goal differential -23 (50 points)
  • February 6, 2016: Montreal 5, Edmonton 1 (Source)
  • February 2, 2017: Nashville 2, Edmonton 0 (Source)

Although we don’t necessarily want to  acknowledge it, the 2015-16 Oilers have shown us a lot about this season, even in recent weeks when some separation has occurred. That item above, the one about a 70-point team not being defensible, while an 82-85 point team would be a little different animal? I believe that to be the case, which makes the deadline interesting. Maybe we see the general manager adding at the deadline. It could happen just this way, maybe taking on the form of a Patrick Maroon extension.

WHAT TO EXPECT FROM FEBRUARY?

  • At home to: Colorado, Tampa Bay (Expected 0-1-1) (Actual 1-0-1)
  • On the road to: Los Angeles, Anaheim, San Jose (Expected 1-1-1) (Actual 0-1-0)
  • At home to: Florida (Expected 1-0-0) (Actual 0-0-0)
  • On the road to: Vegas, Arizona, Colorado (Expected 2-1-0) (Actual 0-0-0)
  • At home to: Boston, Colorado (Expected 1-1-0) (Actual 0-0-0)
  • On the road to: Los Angeles, Anaheim, San Jose (Expected 0-2-1) (Actual 0-0-0)
  • Overall expected result: 5-6-3, 13 points in 14 games
  • Current results: 1-1-1, three points in three games

Edmonton’s two games in California this weekend offer the team an opportunity to get back to ‘fake .500’ in the Bettman NHL. If the team goes 15-13-2 from this point to the end of the season, the final record will be 38-38-6, 82 points. In 15-16, the club would go 10-17-3 to finish 31-43-8, 70 points. If this team matches that record, the final scroll will read 33-42-7, 73 points. That would likely get people fired, although it might happen anyway.

LOWETIDE DRAFT LIST, 2008

For some of you, my back story lists are interesting curios. I posted my 2011 list yesterday in the comments section, will pass along the rest in the coming days. We begin with 2008, I’ve left the original comments and the actual draft number is in brackets. Here is the original post.

  1. [1] Steve Stamkos- Terrific talent but just average for 1st overall.
  2. [3] Zach Bogosian- He might end up being the best NHL player in this draft.
  3. [8] Mikael Boedker- Someone’s getting a ridiculous talent.
  4. [2] Drew Doughty- One dimensional, but what a dimension.
  5. [9] Joshua Bailey- Has wide range of skills.
  6. [5] Luke Schenn- A unqiue talent in this draft.
  7. [7] Colin Wilson- Calling card is his ability to take/make a pass.
  8. [14] Zach Boychuk- One dimensional talent has terrific skill.
  9. [6] Nikita Filatov- May be the equal of Stamkos.
  10. [4] Alex Pietrangelo- Mobile defender, raw compared to the group above him.
  11. [10] Cody Hodgson- Wide range of skills.
  12. [16] Joe Colborne- Playmaking center comes with size and risk.
  13. [46] Colby Robak- Size, speed and skill. Terrific package.
  14. [11] Kyle Beach- John Ferguson reincarnated.
  15. [20] Michael DelZotto- Good offense, needs work without the puck.
  16. [22] Jordan Eberle- Skill forward with big brain. Born Oiler.
  17. [24] Mattias Tedenby- Speed, skill and energy. Undersized.
  18. [17] Jake Gardiner- Sleeper. Terrific speed, smarts. 6-2, 170.
  19. [25] Greg Nemisz- Shooter with some size.
  20. [19] Luca Sbisa- Solid D prospect with wide range of skills.
  21. [15] Erik Karlsson- Intelligent puck mover is very small (5-11, 165).
  22. [36] Corey Trivino- Skilled playmaker, variety of skills. Undersized.
  23. [12] Tyler Myers- Huge defender who skates well. Not much offense.
  24. [13] Colton Teubert- Rock hard D with speed. A born Flame.
  25. [23] Tyler Cuma- Strong 2-way defender is undersized.
  26. [27] John Carlson- Bull in a china shop. Nice range of skills.
  27. [26] Tyler Ennis- Speed demon with skill. 43 goals in the dub.
  28. [21] Anton Gustafsson- Two way C with plus size and skill. Back a concern.
  29. [45] Zac Dalpe- Plus shot, has skill and a work ethic.
  30. [44] Luke Adam- Big scorer from the Q. Speed a concern.

Some hits, some misses, but it’s fun to look back on these items. I’m pleased that Eberle was such a great pick for Edmonton. In just 10 years, the slow defender has paid a heavy price. No way Luke Schenn goes this high in the modern game. Those Karlsson vitals look ridiculous even today, but what a player. The Ottawa Senators can draft like no one’s business, it’s the rest of the business that gets them in trouble.

WHO IS THE BEST OILERS BLUE?

My understanding is that Puck IQ and the brilliant ‘binning’ they employ will soon find its way to our shores. In the meantime, lots of discussion along the good ship Al Gore about who among the Oilers blue is the best. Although it is far past a lost cause, I will once again argue for my friend Corsi Rel as a very good line in the sand. Perfect? No. There is no single stat that gives us the entire photograph. However, Rel is a quick and easy glance into which player is getting the job done across many names. Here are the Oilers’ regulars and their Corsi Rel’s 5×5 via Natural Stat Trick.

  1. Darnell Nurse 2.51
  2. Brandon Davidson 2.11
  3. Andrej Sekera -0.26
  4. Matt Benning -0.29
  5. Oscar Klefbom -0.33
  6. Adam Larsson -1.27
  7. Kris Russell -4.16

As is always the case, Kris Russell doesn’t shine via this metric. In the interests of including Russell’s blocked shots prowess, here are the Fenwick numbers for the group:

  1. Darnell Nurse 3.74
  2. Brandon Davidson 0.85
  3. Oscar Klefbom 0.42
  4. Matt Benning -1.34
  5. Adam Larsson -1.97
  6. Kris Russell -2.33
  7. Andrej Sekera -4.80

All via NaturalStatTrick. The “Shots-against/60 5×5” number is Russell’s best metric that I follow, he is No. 4 (here). It’s okay that we disagree, but if you are touting Oscar Klefbom as a failure then I need to push back on it because that is wildly unfair to the player. Even in an injury season. Kris Russell can defend and that has value, but if Oscar does get dealt let it be known that this blog had his back from Day One until the trade was completed. Klefbom is the real thing.

LOWDOWN WITH LOWETIDE

At 10 this morning, TSN1260. A fun show ahead! Scheduled to appear:

  • Steve Lansky, BigMouthSports. Steve has been to two Olympics, we’ll talk about his experience and early take on the 2018 edition.
  • Nick Dika, bass player for the Arkells and Jays writer at Baseball Prospectus. We’ll talk rock and roll, plus baseball!
  • Matt Iwanyk, TSN1260. NBA trade deadline incredible, plus Olympic games and the Oilers.
  • Paul Almeida, SSE. Preview the Saturday show and talk NHL trade deadline.

10-1260 text, @Lowetide on twitter. See you on the radio!

 

 

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366 Responses to "G53 2017-18: Oilers at Ducks"

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  1. OilClog says:

    Only a NHL GM would move Klef before Kris, well an Oilers GM is that. The 02′ Islanders probably would too

  2. russ99 says:

    Interesting post.

    Still laughing about Kyle Beach and the goon worship Hawks fans were giving him.

    Wonder what the rebuild would have been like if we went the traditional route and went defense before forwards, and picked Karlsson.

    Spitballing, nobody thought Karlsson would be what he is now, but it’s an interesting flipside to all the Hall and Eberle hand wringing of late…

  3. russ99 says:

    OilClog:
    Only a NHL GM would move Klef before Kris, well an Oilers GM is that. The 02′ Islanders probably would too

    For the last time, no GM can just wish away an NMC, it’s up to the player.

    I wasn’t a fan of giving Russell an NMC at the time, but i’d say 99% it’s not getting asked/waived for two reasons: Russell wants to play close to family, and he does things on the ice that NHL coaches and GMs appreciate even if fans (especially the Corsi proponents) don’t.

    Sekera’s isn’t either, you don’t ask a player to waive while recovering from an injury, and he’s doing what the coaches ask. It would tell all other FAs that the Oilers are going to screw you over, so don’t sign here.

    Both players have limited movement clauses next (2019) summer, so stay the course, and add a RHD. Benning is the obvious player to move, he still has value and he’s not helping the team.

    Lucic is a slight possibility if you can sell him and his family on a different team/city, but I’d say the chances there are below 10%.

  4. Woodguy v2.0 says:

    WC standings using pts %, expressed as “games over .500”

    Central
    NSH 20
    WPG 19
    DAL 13

    Pacific
    VGK 22
    LAK 10
    CGY 10

    Wildcard
    STL 13
    MIN 10

    Out of playoffs
    SJS 10
    COL 9
    ANA 7
    CHI 2
    EDM -2
    VAN -6
    ARI -19

    3 way tie for 2nd in the Pacific which is the same “games over .500” as the last wildcard spot.

    This will go down to the last couple games.

    EDM 12 games back with 30 to play and the best player in the world on the roster.

    GM and Coach of the Year candidates donchaknow.

    Fire Bonnie Doon Mall.

    GOILERS!!

    *clap,clap*

  5. Woodguy v2.0 says:

    russ99:
    Interesting post.

    Still laughing about Kyle Beach and the goon worship Hawks fans were giving him.

    Wonder what the rebuild would have been like if we went the traditional route andwent defense before forwards, and picked Karlsson.

    Spitballing, nobody thought Karlsson would be what he is now, but it’s an interesting flipside to all the Hall and Eberle hand wringing of late…

    OTT took Karlsson at 15, EDM didn’t pick until 22.

  6. thehop says:

    Woodguy v2.0,

    Who gets hired to replace the GM and the coaching staff if they firethemall?

  7. Connoreah says:

    IMHO, extending Maroon would be a giant red flag and probably indicate that the Oilers will, once again, disappoint next year.

    Maroon is a good player. He does many things that add value to the roster. But the Oilers very badly need to re-brand this team as one built on speed. We have the fastest player in the history of the game at a time when speed is pocket aces in the NHL. To ignore that advantage, particularly after a season where it became obvious to everyone that speed is the new size, would be to waste the greatest lottery win in NHL history.

  8. Woodguy v2.0 says:

    I don’t think CHI makes it and I think Bowman gives Q the pipe.

    I’d immediately offer Q what he wants and clean out the coaches if that happens.

  9. russ99 says:

    Woodguy v2.0:

    I would as well. Quennville would be at the top of my list. No nonsense coach, multiple cups, no Oiler old boy ties.

  10. Woodguy v2.0 says:

    thehop:
    Woodguy v2.0,

    Who gets hired to replace the GM and the coaching staff if they firethemall?

    I have no idea who the OEG would hire.

    My guesses for GM are Keith Gretzky and Don Maloney.

    I would hire Paul Fenton from NSH to be GM and let him hire a coach.

    If Q is available you give him what he wants.

    I’d consider Tippett as well as his teams over-acheived their talent level more often than not.

  11. Woodguy v2.0 says:

    russ99: I would as well.Quennville would be at the top of my list. No nonsense coach, multiple cups, no Oiler old boy ties.

    I love the way he maximizes his line up and works hard at the match ups.

    He’s currently putting Saad on the 4th line. I wonder what’s up there…..

  12. OriginalPouzar says:

    Game night – always looks forward to Oiler games.

    It’s always intense against the Ducks – looking forward to beating these guys.

    The blender was out early last game so who knows what we’ll see tonight with no practice yesterday to give us an indication.

    8pm starts are perverse – they lead to the gym on 3 hours sleep.

    Go Oilers!

  13. 106 and 106 says:

    WHO ARE THESE PEOPLE?

    [36] Corey Trivino- Skilled playmaker, variety of skills. Undersized.
    [23] Tyler Cuma- Strong 2-way defender is undersized.
    [21] Anton Gustafsson- Two way C with plus size and skill. Back a concern.
    [45] Zac Dalpe- Plus shot, has skill and a work ethic.
    [44] Luke Adam- Big scorer from the Q. Speed a concern.

  14. sliderule says:

    The GM is going before the coach.

    Which good old boy do you prefer

  15. Pescador says:

    Oscar is 24 & has played 237 NHL games.
    He played 82 last season (no injury), has spent a large portion of this one in recovery mode.
    If you are wondering what is the reason(s) for the decline in this years metrics,
    look no further then Talbots save% & playing second pairing minutes with M. Benning
    If they do end up trading 77 is has to be for like for like RHD
    Edit; which underperforming overpaid winger will they trade Oscar for?

  16. flea says:

    Come on guys, we all know how this is going to go.

    Chia/Mcl fired

    Paul Coffey Head Coach
    Wayne Gretzky GM
    Keith Gretzky Assistant GM

  17. sliderule says:

    OriginalPouzar:
    Game night – always looks forward to Oiler games.

    It’s always intense against the Ducks – looking forward to beating these guys.

    The blender was out early last game so who knows what we’ll see tonight with no practice yesterday to give us an indication.

    8pm starts are perverse – they lead to the gym on 3 hours sleep.

    Go Oilers!

    You are the best thing to happen to this website in years.

    Love the enthusiasm.

    Go oilers 👍👍

  18. Pescador says:

    Woodguy v2.0:
    I don’t think CHI makes it and I think Bowman gives Q the pipe.

    I’d immediately offer Q what he wants and clean out the coaches if that happens.

    Hopefully Q wants a better GM

  19. russ99 says:

    flea:
    Come on guys, we all know how this is going to go.

    Chia/Mcl fired

    Paul Coffey Head Coach
    Wayne Gretzky GM
    Keith Gretzky Assistant GM

    You know Bucky will be in there too. LOL

    This is the primary reason why I prefer to wait a year on making GM/Coach change unless much better candidates become available. Secondary is the plan worked fine last season, don’t blow it all up due to a bad summer full of Scott Howson AHL signings.

    Would like to see these guys get a chance without scouting and player development spoiled by old boy decision makers, and any replacements will have the same problems without a purge.

  20. thehop says:

    **If you are wondering what is the reason(s) for the decline in this years metrics,
    look no further then Talbots save% & playing second pairing minutes with M. Benning**

    Talbot’s save percentage and overall goalering are largely a result of the dmen not being good at defence.

    Benning, on most rosters in the NHL, is a tweener at best, an AHL player at worst but because this team has absolutely no quality depth on the back end, he plays more than he should.

    Fix the d corpse and watch Talbot return to form.

  21. 99266in87 says:

    Down here in sunny warm Anaheim. My daughters midget girls team are playing a series of exhibitions against the Lady Ducks and Sharks. Our group (team) are all going to the game tonight, hoping McDavid goes supernova on those cheating Ducks. That would put the icing on this amazing hockey trip.

  22. OriginalPouzar says:

    Looking at those defence numbers really tells a story – Klefbom battling injury since before game 1 and all season long leading to a big stop back in on ice play and Larsson having an up and down season while also battling injuries are likely huge reasons why the season has gone how it has.

    Combine the step back by our top pairing D from last year with a big step back from our goaltender and we are talking draft rankings.

    The question becomes, can we expect any or all of these three to bounce back to a form closer to last year? I think its reasonable to state yes for all three.

    Go Oilers!

  23. OriginalPouzar says:

    OilClog:
    Only a NHL GM would move Klef before Kris, well an Oilers GM is that. The 02′ Islanders probably would too

    This is simply not an option in my mind. Yes, Klef has struggled this season but he has been injured since before game 1. There is every reason to believe that he’ll be a better player next year. His cap hit pretty much mirrors that of Kris Russell and there is no world where it makes sense to move Klef for cap relief because Kris Russell has a NMC.

    The only way I’m on board with moving Klef is in connection with a legit 1/2RD acquisition and, frankly, I don’t even want that. I want that hole filled while keeping our left side depth of Nurse and Klef (and hopefully Sekera).

    I don’t think that 1/2RD hole can be filled unless one of the lefties is gone and, in my mind, that has to be Kris Russell although I guess I can get on board with Sekera due to age and cap hit – thing is Sekera is such a superior d-man to Russell that, even if Sekera only ever gets back to 90% next season, that is still a very good d-man.

  24. frjohnk says:

    thehop:
    **If you are wondering what is the reason(s) for the decline in this years metrics,
    look no further then Talbots save% & playing second pairing minutes with M. Benning**

    Talbot’s save percentage and overall goalering are largely a result of the dmen not being good at defence.

    Benning, on most rosters in the NHL, is a tweener at best, an AHL player at worst but because this team has absolutely no quality depth on the back end, he plays more than he should.

    Fix the d corpse and watch Talbot return to form.

    Last year I believe Talbot covered up a lot of ills that is our defence.
    This year he isn’t doing the same.

    First shots against going in regularly along with a PK save well below league average just comping the issues.

  25. OriginalPouzar says:

    sliderule: You are the best thing to happen to this website in years.

    Love the enthusiasm.

    Go oilers

    Thank you for that – much appreciated. Many (most) will disagree with you and that’s OK – we all can’t be happy and my “style” is not for everyone (so I’ve been told).

    Go Oilers!

  26. nafnikufesin says:

    With the reigning MVP and scoring champion on an ELC, anything less than a deep playoff run is indefensible.

  27. Kinger_Oil.redux says:

    – I get the angst about Chia and McL, and the “damage” they have done

    – I think it’s a huge over-reaction. As GM, Chia did not alone in a vacuum trade Hall or Ebs: whether you like the moves or not. The call to not sign up vets, and leave some cushion and have the kids develop wasn’t done in isolation. If after reflection its’ deemed he has to be fired, I don’t believe you base it on the results of this season: Recency bias for sure, but there is a lot more to it

    – As coach, McL has had a huge step backwards in terms of results. He came into this season with a team that was in many circles, notably Vegas, and many pundits a Cup-bound team, after a strong season last year.

    – Everyone was really excited that finally we had a non OBC GM who won a Cup, and a strong non-OBC coach, who coached strong teams. But had “flags”: Chia with Cap management, McL never winning a Cup. But they were huge steps up.

    – Sometimes, sh$t happens: give the incumbents an off-season to recalibrate, bring in some innovative assistant coaches, and guys in management that have different skills and perspectives.

    – But if you blow up coaching staff and management, again, I just don’t see other than trading bodies how its’ different. Last year we over-achieved it appears, this year we under-achieved it appears

    – Let it grow: replace Cammi/Maroon/Letetsu. If you can make a hockey trade for a more-optimal D, do it. Improve the PP/PK with some new thoughts/ideas. Continue to draft well.

    – Also assume Talbot is going to play better, and make sure you’ve got a back-up you trust

    – You either let the crew learn from their mistakes because they have a track-record of success, or you punt them and start over with new shiny GM and Coach.

    – If they aren’t going deep into the playoffs next year, its over for Chia and McL. Don’t be a gong-show rotation like Buffalo coach a year. Optimal is tweak, recalibrate, learn and move on IMO

  28. thehop says:

    OriginalPouzar,

    Get a room

  29. LMHF#1 says:

    Staples with a fluff piece on Russell today, continually reiterating that he hasn’t been terrible, despite the fact that he’s their 6th best defenceman already. What a joke.

    Shows you what a bunch of people look for – guy blocks a shot on a scoring chance he likely caused (as is usually the case) and the media + old school lazy types spend the next few days fawning. It’s just sad and lame.

  30. thehop says:

    frjohnk,

    I have never paid attention to the first shot issue but listening to LT’s radio show yesterday, a guest and regular poster here mentioned how big of an issue it is. Apparently it’s historically bad, coupled with the historically bad PK.

    How do the Oilers fix the first shot problem?

    I’ve never played goalie so I wont pretend to know but the Clifford goal was soft. Many voices saying he’s down before the shot is off which may be part of the problem. He looks out of position to me sometimes as well.

    If I had to take a shot at it though, I think the issue is the Dmen backing in to the point where he can’t make a play on the puck in time and his natural reaction is to go down. That’s what I saw on the Clifford goal anyway.

    I dunno, I hope he can fix it. I like Talbot

  31. fifthcartel says:

    Woodguy v2.0,

    I think EDM Head Coach Joel Quenneville makes a lot of sense. I’m just hoping he’s hired by Oilers GM Paul Fenton or Laurence Gilman, and not GMPC.

    Saad’s really interesting because I didn’t think he was playing this little. He’s playing third/fourth line minutes and if Friedman’s right, might be another salary dump. The Oilers would have to manoeuvre things around, so count them out if Chiarelli’s GM, but he seems like a perfect fit for the LW.

    Fast LW with great possession stats and ES scoring. Shoots a lot. Not a big PP guy.

  32. Oil2Oilers says:

    “[15] Erik Karlsson- Intelligent puck mover is very small (5-11, 165).”

    Adam Boqvist’s scouting report is eerily similar. I would support the Oilers trading up at the draft, if necessary, to get him.

    Yes the cupboard is (idiotically) bare of offensive talent but RHD that can skate are the true unicorns of the NHL. Add in that he has a very late birthday and he seems to be a very wise bet.

  33. flyfish1168 says:

    Woodguy v2.0:
    I don’t think CHI makes it and I think Bowman gives Q the pipe.

    I’d immediately offer Q what he wants and clean out the coaches if that happens.

    Hi WG

    how any coaches have won Stanley with two different teams?? I like coach Q too. But curious.

  34. dustrock says:

    I get this weird feeling Chia is going to trade Nuge for Shattenkirk or McDonagh. But that won’t be a deadline move.

  35. jtblack says:

    flyfish1168: Hi WG

    how any coaches have won Stanley with two different teams?? I like coach Q too. But curious.

    Some chap named Bowman won with 3 teams ….

  36. jtblack says:

    106 and 106:
    WHO ARE THESE PEOPLE?

    [36] Corey Trivino- Skilled playmaker, variety of skills. Undersized.
    [23] Tyler Cuma- Strong 2-way defender is undersized.
    [21] Anton Gustafsson- Two way C with plus size and skill. Back a concern.
    [45] Zac Dalpe- Plus shot, has skill and a work ethic.
    [44] Luke Adam- Big scorer from the Q. Speed a concern.

    Go back through every draft and you will have the same questions. We celebrate the ones that make it and forget those that don’t …. and it happens every year.

    Look at the 2nd round every year for some Shock and Awe. Many “misses”

  37. jtblack says:

    Woodguy v2.0:
    I don’t think CHI makes it and I think Bowman gives Q the pipe.

    I’d immediately offer Q what he wants and clean out the coaches if that happens.

    +1. Chi fired Denis Savard for no apparent reason The reason was coach Q, who subsequently delivered 3 Cups.

    He would be Excellent!

  38. jtblack says:

    Did the Oilers go back to the “Box” on the PK?

  39. Scungilli Slushy says:

    Connoreah:
    IMHO, extending Maroon would be a giant red flag and probably indicate that the Oilers will, once again, disappoint next year.

    Maroon is a good player. He does many things that add value to the roster. But the Oilers very badly need to re-brand this team as one built on speed. We have the fastest player in the history of the game at a time when speed is pocket aces in the NHL. To ignore that advantage, particularly after a season where it became obvious to everyone that speed is the new size, would be to waste the greatest lottery win in NHL history.

    Agreed. Heavy doesn’t have to mean lumbering. They do have to find some goals though. 3 years, 3 best vet wingers out.

  40. bendelson says:

    Woodguy v2.0:
    I don’t think CHI makes it and I think Bowman gives Q the pipe.

    I’d immediately offer Q what he wants and clean out the coaches if that happens.

    I need more information… which condescending, half-assed colour commentator comes attached to coach Q’s hip?

  41. Kinger_Oil.redux says:

    Scungilli Slushy,

    – Truth: Ebs soft, Maroon slow. But they all scored. Wingers can score different ways, different costs, different styles. Many ways to skin a cat

  42. JimmyV1965 says:

    I really enjoyed LTs interview with Frank Seravalli yesterday. He said GMs sometimes get caught up trying to resign players on their own team who are not difference makers. He was referring to Russell and Maroon. He called them plug and play players who can easily be replaced on your roster. Yet these type of players sometimes get signed to long deals for relatively large cap hits.

    I think it’s shocking that Chia hasn’t learned this after years and years as a GM. IMO the Oilers only have a handful of core players. McDavid, Drai, RNH and JP at forward. Nurse, Klef and Larsson at defence.

    Every other player on this team should be signed to cheap contracts or be punted out the door. They are easily replaceable.

    Chia has already made a mess by signing guys like Lucic, Russell and Sekera to long term deals. It will be real interesting to see what he does with the RFAs and UFAs this summer.

  43. Scungilli Slushy says:

    russ99: For the last time, no GM can just wish away an NMC, it’s up to the player.

    I wasn’t a fan of giving Russell an NMC at the time, but i’d say 99% it’s not getting asked/waived for two reasons: Russell wants to play close to family, and he does things on the ice that NHL coaches and GMs appreciate even if fans (especially the Corsi proponents) don’t.

    Sekera’s isn’t either, you don’t ask a player to waive while recovering from an injury, and he’s doing what the coaches ask. It would tell all other FAs that the Oilers are going to screw you over, so don’t sign here.

    Both players have limited movement clauses next (2019) summer, so stay the course, and add a RHD. Benning is the obvious player to move, he still has value and he’s not helping the team.

    Lucic is a slight possibility if you can sell him and his family on a different team/city, but I’d say the chances there are below 10%.

    Yes. If they are adding a D one has to go out. Who are they going to sit as 7th? Cn’t do that to Benning at this point.

    He is the one, Klef has far more upside still and size, better skating and more offense.

    I think there is a deal to be had with the Avs around Benning and Barrie. Sadly it involves Nuge. Nuge and Benning for Barrie and a high end prospect.

    They need a centre and an able player to fill the D hole.

    Ride out a year and move Sekera and Russell and get some forwards or a goalie with the cap. Sign a cheap winger for a year. If they add speed up front and somebody with better hands than Strome Lucic and Cammi it wouldn’t be too bad. In a capped league perfect isn’t possible short term.

  44. JimmyV1965 says:

    LMHF#1:
    Staples with a fluff piece on Russell today, continually reiterating that he hasn’t been terrible, despite the fact that he’s their 6th best defenceman already. What a joke.

    Shows you what a bunch of people look for – guy blocks a shot on a scoring chance he likely caused (as is usually the case) and the media + old school lazy types spend the next few days fawning. It’s just sad and lame.

    I’m not defending Russel, but he’s not our sixth best dmen. I don’t care what the numbers say, Klef and Benning have been awful. I mean AHL awful. In his defence, Klef has looked better recently and he was injured earlier.

  45. Scungilli Slushy says:

    Woodguy v2.0: I love the way he maximizes his line up and works hard at the match ups.

    He’s currently putting Saad on the 4th line. I wonder what’s up there…..

    I agree he has the chops to be better than McL. But if fans are expecting anything much different with the blender, I doubt it. He’ll have his favourites as all coaches do. Hopefully they would be better at the hockeying.

  46. LMHF#1 says:

    JimmyV1965: I’m not defending Russell, but he’s not our sixth best dmen. I don’t care what the numbers say, Klef and Benning have been awful. I mean AHL awful. In his defence, Klef has looked better recently and he was injured earlier.

    As much as they’ve struggled compared to last year, they still aren’t anywhere near as weak on the ice as #4.

    I’m also not primarily a #s guy. I don’t know why the Russell debate is framed as a vs debate. The ones who like 4 by eye are crazy. His fundamentals are much more in line with a 4th line forward than a defenceman.

  47. OilClog says:

    russ99: For the last time, no GM can just wish away an NMC, it’s up to the player.

    I wasn’t a fan of giving Russell an NMC at the time, but i’d say 99% it’s not getting asked/waived for two reasons: Russell wants to play close to family, and he does things on the ice that NHL coaches and GMs appreciate even if fans (especially the Corsi proponents) don’t.

    Sekera’s isn’t either, you don’t ask a player to waive while recovering from an injury, and he’s doing what the coaches ask. It would tell all other FAs that the Oilers are going to screw you over, so don’t sign here.

    Both players have limited movement clauses next (2019) summer, so stay the course, and add a RHD. Benning is the obvious player to move, he still has value and he’s not helping the team.

    Lucic is a slight possibility if you can sell him and his family on a different team/city, but I’d say the chances there are below 10%.

    Holy tone yourself down, yes a GM can’t wish away a NMC how very astute of you.

  48. Gayfish says:

    LMHF#1: As much as they’ve struggled compared to last year, they still aren’t anywhere near as weak on the ice as #4.

    I’m also not primarily a #s guy. I don’t know why the Russell debate is framed as a vs debate. The ones who like 4 by eye are crazy. His fundamentals are much more in line with a 4th line forward than a defenceman.

    Reminds me of when there was a massive backlash towards the stats wrt goons like SmackIntyre. There’s almost a religious defense of the player type. I don’t hate Russel, but he is a very limited player, and a utility defenseman regardless of contract.

  49. OilClog says:

    OriginalPouzar: This is simply not an option in my mind.Yes, Klef has struggled this season but he has been injured since before game 1.There is every reason to believe that he’ll be a better player next year. His cap hit pretty much mirrors that of Kris Russell and there is no world where it makes sense to move Klef for cap relief because Kris Russell has a NMC.

    The only way I’m on board with moving Klef is in connection with a legit 1/2RD acquisition and, frankly, I don’t even want that. I want that hole filled while keeping our left side depth of Nurse and Klef (and hopefully Sekera).

    I don’t think that 1/2RD hole can be filled unless one of the lefties is gone and, in my mind, that has to be Kris Russell although I guess I can get on board with Sekera due to age and cap hit – thing is Sekera is such a superior d-man to Russell that, even if Sekera only ever gets back to 90% next season, that is still a very good d-man.

    I don’t want Klef moved, yes Russell and a Sekera that isn’t himself and older then Klef should both be moved first. But Oilers management consists of magpies

  50. Clarkenstein says:

    Woodguy v2.0: I have no idea who the OEG would hire.

    My guesses for GM are Keith Gretzky and Don Maloney.

    I would hire Paul Fenton from NSH to be GM and let him hire a coach.

    If Q is available you give him what he wants.

    I’d consider Tippett as well as his teams over-acheived their talent level more often than not.

    I’d like to see Tippett here and have him bring Shane Doan to coach forwards but don’t think Shane’s interesting in leaving the desert.

  51. OmJo says:

    [13] Colton Teubert- Rock hard D with speed.

    Crazy how much the English language has changed since 2008.

  52. Clarkenstein says:

    frjohnk: Last year I believe Talbot covered up a lot of ills that is our defence.
    This year he isn’t doing the same.

    First shots against going in regularly along with a PK save well below league average just comping the issues.

    “Boom!”

  53. Gayfish says:

    If you had a coach like Quennville matching lines, you might be able to get McDavid against the softs half a dozen more times a game. Could make a massive difference.

  54. Kinger_Oil.redux says:

    Clarkenstein: I’d like to see Tippett here and have him bring Shane Doan to coach forwards but don’t think he’s interesting in leaving the desert.

    – Yeah – a coach that hasn’t been in playoffs in 6 years, never been to semis. Shiny new toy

    – Q – He took 10 playoff appearances before he won a Cup, fired twice 1st round loser last 2. Coaches have warts, cherry-pick stats.

    – Babcock: hasn’t won a cup in 10 years.

    – Sure McL can coach up better, I bet he does: he’s got a solid track record: If you focus on specific seasons, you can crucify any coach

    – All coaches have warts: McL is in the range of coaches that win multiple Cups

  55. ArmchairGM says:

    Who else thinks Adam Boqvist’s vitals, stats and development path look a lot like Eric Karlsson’s? Line the two up side-by-side and it’s hard to see much daylight… I know the Oilers need a shooter, but man if that guy falls you grab him every time. One year in SHL followed by a 12-game stint in Bakersfield and BOOM you’ve got yourself a franchise RD for the next 15 years. This kid is dynamite… and LT I’ve bookmarked your draft projections showing Ty Smith ahead of him. Five years from now we’ll re-visit… 🙂

  56. OriginalPouzar says:

    nafnikufesin:
    With the reigning MVP and scoring champion on an ELC, anything less than a deep playoff run is indefensible.

    From the 84/85 season to the 88/89 season, Mario Lemieux had 715 points in 368 games and played 11 playoff games.

    Some ultra elite and generational players played on some bad teams over time.

  57. OriginalPouzar says:

    thehop:
    OriginalPouzar,

    Get a room

    Feel free to not reply, ignore, not read, etc.

    No need for your continuing condescension towards me.

  58. hunter1909 says:

    OmJo:
    [13] Colton Teubert- Rock hard D with speed.

    Crazy how much the English language has changed since 2008.

    Crazier how Oilers continually trade draft picks/the future for these busts(Reinhart cough cough)

  59. hunter1909 says:

    Oilers have started to descend into irrelevance for me.

    Right now it’s connormcdavid and a few plugs = basically the 1993 Vancouver Canucks. Sure McDavid will eventually drag them into a final series all by his lonesome.

  60. hunter1909 says:

    OriginalPouzar: From the 84/85 season to the 88/89 season, Mario Lemieux had 715 points in 368 games and played 11 playoff games.

    Some ultra elite and generational players played on some bad teams over time.

    I’m sure that makes every one of us feel a whole lot better.

  61. godot10 says:

    ArmchairGM:
    Who else thinks Adam Boqvist’s vitals, stats and development path look a lot like Eric Karlsson’s? Line the two up side-by-side and it’s hard to see much daylight… I know the Oilers need a shooter, but man if that guy falls you grab him every time. One year in SHL followed by a 12-game stint in Bakersfield and BOOM you’ve got yourself a franchise RD for the next 15 years. This kid is dynamite… and LT I’ve bookmarked your draft projections showing Ty Smith ahead of him. Five years from now we’ll re-visit…

    Ottawa drafted Karlsson in the first round. They also traded a 1st round pick to St. Louis (who became Tarasenko) for David Rundblad, a 1st round draft pick of the Blues after his draft+1 season. (Their Reinhart trade). Ottawa decided to make multiple bets.

    Death and taxes are the only certain things in life.

  62. ArmchairGM says:

    thehop:
    **If you are wondering what is the reason(s) for the decline in this years metrics,
    look no further then Talbots save% & playing second pairing minutes with M. Benning**

    Talbot’s save percentage and overall goalering are largely a result of the dmen not being good at defence.

    Benning, on most rosters in the NHL, is a tweener at best, an AHL player at worst but because this team has absolutely no quality depth on the back end, he plays more than he should.

    Fix the d corpse and watch Talbot return to form.

    Chicken, or egg?

  63. VOR says:

    jtblack: Go back through every draft and you will have the same questions.We celebrate the ones that make it and forget those that don’t …. and it happens every year.

    Look at the 2nd round every year for some Shock and Awe. Many “misses”

    You have to look at it as an optimization problem. So in a “typical” draft there are about 15 impact NHL players and another 30 who are truly above replacement level based on TOI. Using the number of total above replacement value players (as determined by Tom Awad’s GvT {Goals versus Threshold} that is they have a positive GvT) the average over 30+ years of drafting is 43. So basically in a perfect optimization as measured by TOI (Time on Ice) or GvT those 45 players would go 1-45 and in the order of their GvT or TOI or both.

    In the first three rounds teams don’t optimize very well in terms of perfect optimization. But they start off with very strong near optimization. So in a typical first round between 15 and 25 (average = 20) of the 45 players are taken – just usually not in the correct order – thus the term near optimization. Jordan Eberle for example by any reasonable re-draft metric is a top ten pick but was taken at 22. So in a typical draft 44% of the above replacement level players are picked in round 1.

    But in the second round there are now only 25 +GvT above average TOI left. And efficiency does drop and typically only 10 of the remaining 25 players are picked in the second round. (40%) That leaves 15 still in play in the 3rd round. Efficiency drops even further as typically only 5 of the remaining 15 are picked (33%).

    Then efficiency begins to climb as optimization improves. In round 4 it is back up to 40% (4/10), then in round 5 it is 50% (3 of the six remaining), round 6 it is 66% (2 of the 3 remaining) and round 7 it is of course, by definition 100% (1/1). That is because this analysis ignores players who make the NHL without being drafted. Of which there are a few each year.

    The operative theory that has been used to explain this weird pattern is that in the first round there are 45 players of 210 who are going to be above replacement level so finding 20 of them isn’t hard, there is a lot of consensus and Central Scouting provides a pretty accurate picture of the field. But round two is tougher – there are only 25 (ARV) players left and none of them are consensus and CSS begins to struggle a bit. By the third round the are only 15 (ARV) left and CSS is pretty much no help.

    Starting in the 4th round it starts becoming easier to separate the few NHLers that are left from the players who have no hope. CSS is useless but scouts are actually pretty good at optimization at this point. The task actually gets easier from there as the very few remaining players tend to leap out of the background noise.

    I am not sure that is the correct explanation but that is the theory.

    But what we do know is teams spend a great deal of their resources trying to move from near optimization to perfect optimization. The reasons are obvious. In a typical draft year, as I said only 15 players are going to be impact players – a full SD above median GvT or TOI and 9 to 10 of them will go somewhere in the first round. The rest are scattered here, there, and everywhere in the draft. Teams that get them improve quickly. An argument can be made however that if you have an entire team of above median GvT players that you would probably be a well above average NHL team.

    I keep arguing that teams need to start figuring out what predicts an ARV player regardless of whether they are an impact player or not. That is where the marginal gain is. It is not inconceivable that a team (like the Oilers in this upcoming draft) could take an impact player with their 1st OV and then get 6 more ARV players in the next six rounds. With the talent they already have a dynasty would be born.

  64. thehop says:

    OriginalPouzar,

    I’ll do and say as I please OP.

    It was an attempt at humor.

  65. thehop says:

    ArmchairGM,

    Well that’s a good question.

    My take is d supports the goalie, if you’ve built your team well and your team is coached properly.

    If your team needs your goalie to support your d, you’ve likely got it backwards but clearly the Oilers see things differently than I given the lineup they ice day in and day out and the results this year.

  66. godot10 says:

    That fawning piece by Staples on Russell made me puke.

    Russell was carried last year by a healthy Sekera. When Russell had to survive on his own this year he was a disaster, until he was paired with Nurse, and then Nurse has carried him around this year.

    Russell apart from a healthy Sekera or the new improved Nurse is a marginal NHL defensemen.

    The fact that he has admirable character does not compensate for the fact that he is NOT a good hockey player.

  67. Woogie63 says:

    Woodguy v2.0:
    I don’t think CHI makes it and I think Bowman gives Q the pipe.

    I’d immediately offer Q what he wants and clean out the coaches if that happens.

    $3M to TMac, $1M to his gang (I am guessing) NOT to coach.

    $5M to Q and a $1 to his gang to coach.

    $10M in coaches … the team makes $25M ish.

    Best catch Daryl on a happy day.

  68. OriginalPouzar says:

    hunter1909: I’m sure that makes every one of us feel a whole lot better.

    It may not, however, I don’t agree with the verbal regarding how crazy it is that a team with the best player in the world is missing the playoffs – it is not an unusual circumstance.

    This isn’t the NBA where one superstar can, figuratively, carry a team to a long playoff run.

    Yes, its disappointing but not as crazy or “unacceptable” as professed.

  69. OriginalPouzar says:

    thehop:
    OriginalPouzar,

    I’ll do and say as I please OP.

    It was an attempt at humor.

    As you should and I will continue to do the same – which is kind of my entire point.

    Anyways, I didn’t get the humor part so, I apologize.

  70. hunter1909 says:

    OriginalPouzar: This isn’t the NBA where one superstar can, figuratively, carry a team to a long playoff run.
    Yes, its disappointing but not as crazy or “unacceptable” as professed.

    11 years out of the playoffs. Then 1 feeble run with a single bloody series win and a brutal kickout at the hands of the Ducks…

    Followed by another lottery team disaster season – fueled bigtime by hoping that 140 pounder Yamamoto was skilled enough to play 1st line minutes.

    Add no acceptable backup goalie. Add no acceptable puck moving defencemen whatsoever.

    Absolute incompetence.

  71. Pescador says:

    hunter1909,

    25 is an acceptable PMD, even if he needs to carry it more then pass it.
    I didn’t agree with the Audition either, but save the degrading comments for Chiarelli.
    Not Yammo’s fault he was there to begin with.

  72. jtblack says:

    VOR: You have to look at it as an optimization problem. So in a “typical” draft there are about 15 impact NHL players and another 30 who are truly above replacement level based on TOI. Using the number of total above replacement value players (as determined by Tom Awad’s GvT {Goals versus Threshold} that is they have a positive GvT) the average over 30+ years of drafting is 43.So basically in a perfect optimization as measured by TOI (Time on Ice) or GvT those 45 players would go 1-45 and in the order of their GvT or TOI or both.

    In the first three rounds teams don’t optimize very well in terms of perfect optimization. But they start off with very strong near optimization. So in a typical first round between 15 and 25 (average = 20) of the 45 players are taken – just usually not in the correct order – thus the term near optimization. Jordan Eberle for example by any reasonable re-draft metric is a top ten pick but was taken at 22.So in a typical draft 44% of the above replacement level players are picked in round 1.

    But in the second round there are now only 25 +GvT above average TOI left. And efficiency does drop and typically only 10 of the remaining 25 players are picked in the second round. (40%) That leaves 15 still in play in the 3rd round. Efficiency drops even further as typically only 5 of the remaining 15 are picked (33%).

    Then efficiency begins to climb as optimization improves. In round 4 it is back up to 40% (4/10), then in round 5 it is 50% (3 of the six remaining), round 6 it is 66% (2 of the 3 remaining) and round 7 it is of course, by definition 100% (1/1). That is because this analysis ignores players who make the NHL without being drafted. Of which there are a few each year.

    The operative theory that has been used to explain this weird pattern is that in the first round there are 45 players of 210 who are going to be above replacement level so finding 20 of them isn’t hard, there is a lot of consensus and Central Scouting provides a pretty accurate picture of the field. But round two is tougher – there are only 25 (ARV) players left and none of them are consensus and CSS begins to struggle a bit. By the third round the are only 15 (ARV) left and CSS is pretty much no help.

    Starting in the 4th round it starts becoming easier to separate the few NHLers that are left from the players who have no hope. CSS is useless but scouts are actually pretty good at optimization at this point. The task actually gets easier from there as the very few remaining players tend to leap out of the background noise.

    I am not sure that is the correct explanation but that is the theory.

    But what we do know is teams spend a great deal of their resources trying to move from near optimization to perfect optimization. The reasons are obvious. In a typical draft year, as I said only 15 players are going to be impact players – a full SD above median GvT or TOI and 9 to 10 of them will go somewhere in the first round. The rest are scattered here, there, and everywhere in the draft. Teams that get them improve quickly. An argument can be made however that if you have an entire team of above median GvT players that you would probably be a well above average NHL team.

    I keep arguing that teams need to start figuring out what predicts an ARV player regardless of whether they are an impact player or not. That is where the marginal gain is. It is not inconceivable that a team (like the Oilers in this upcoming draft) could take an impact player with their 1st OV and then get 6 more ARV players in the next six rounds. With the talent they already have a dynasty would be born.

    Well ; sure to most of that. How does it get easier in Round 4 to draft an above avg player?

    However we want to explain it there are 200 picks and only about 45 players who are above avg. 2011 the Oilers got 3. Since then they have not been that good (due to giving away most of their picks).

    Lets hope for 3 more this year.

  73. GMB3 says:

    russ99:
    Interesting post.

    Still laughing about Kyle Beach and the goon worship Hawks fans were giving him.

    Wonder what the rebuild would have been like if we went the traditional route andwent defense before forwards, and picked Karlsson.

    Spitballing, nobody thought Karlsson would be what he is now, but it’s an interesting flipside to all the Hall and Eberle hand wringing of late…

    Yes picking Karlsson the 5’10 offensively talented Swedish defenceman would be the traditional way to rebuild a team…

    I thought judging D by their offence is the wrong way Togo about things Russ. Interesting new point of view considering all your hand wringing about Kris Russell being real value

  74. OriginalPouzar says:

    hunter1909: 11 years out of the playoffs. Then 1 feeble run with a single bloody series win and a brutal kickout at the hands of the Ducks…

    Followed by another lottery team disaster season – fueled bigtime by hoping that 140 pound runt Yamamoto was skilled enough to play 1st line minutes.

    Add no acceptable backup goalie. Add no acceptable puck moving defencemen whatsoever.

    Absolute incompetence.

    You bring up many valid points, points that aren’t related to my point but that’s cool.

    I’m not interested in yet another conversation about management’s mistakes (not on game day) but many others will be I’m sure.

    Looking forward to seeing what the lineups will be for the Oilers game tonight.

    Go Oilers!

  75. jtblack says:

    Game could get snarly tonight. Hopefully Lucic is awake. He has left most of the Rough and Tumble stuff to Zack.

  76. whale says:

    Question for the group. What would you do if we won the lottery. First overall.

  77. godot10 says:

    Tyler Pitlick 53 games, 10 goals, 18 points 3 years @ $1 million per season. +12
    Zack Kassian 51 games, 4 goals, 13 points 3 years @ $1.85 million per season. -3

    #ZackWatch #WhatWereTheyThinking

  78. VOR says:

    jtblack: Well ; sure to most of that.How does it get easier in Round 4 to draft an above avg player?

    However we want to explain it there are 200 picks and only about 45 players who are above avg. 2011 the Oilers got 3.Since then they have not been that good (due to giving away most of their picks).

    Lets hope for 3 more this year.

    Scouts tell me comparables work far better in later rounds, in terms of being truly predictive. So if you like Ondrje Palat foretells Ondrje Kase. Also there are very few high NHLE players left and that makes it far easier to justify taking skill over all other factors.

    Plus the later picks tend to be scouts’ picks. They are given far more freedom to pick and often they have seen the player they select player almost as often or more often than they have seen the first round talents. This is because they have known all year they would be making a late round pick and that it is their chance to shine. They have been bargain bin shopping if you follow me, looking for sleepers.

  79. DBO says:

    EDM lineup at ANA:

    Maroon-McDavid-Puljujarvi
    Lucic-Draisaitl-Caggiula
    Khaira-Strome-Kassian
    Slepyshev-Letestu-Pakarinen

    Nurse-Davidson
    Klefbom-Russell
    Sekera-Benning

    Talbot

  80. OriginalPouzar says:

    Maroon-McDavid-Puljujarvi
    Lucic-Draisaitl-Caggiula
    Khaira-Strome-Kassian
    Slepyshev-Letestu-Pakarinen

    Nurse-Davidson
    Klefbom-Russell
    Sekera-Benning

    Talbot

    Leon back to center and Puljijarvi back to 1RW – many will be happy about that.

    Strome and Khaira together – some will be happy about that as they have nice metrics together.

    Slepy in over Cammy – #freeslepy crowd will be happy about that.

    Kassian with a bit of a push.

    Benning demoted on merit and Davidson with a push – I’m not a big fan of Davidson playing tough minutes on his offside – he’s going to struggle moving the puck from that position.

  81. dustrock says:

    VOR,

    VOR – it would be great to build a type of cheat sheet by looking at the last 15 years of drafts and seeing if the players who make it, particularly in the 2nd round, have any particular characteristics that stand out (shot, skating, size, height, league, age at time of draft, etc).

  82. Lowetide says:

    ArmchairGM:
    Who else thinks Adam Boqvist’s vitals, stats and development path look a lot like Eric Karlsson’s? Line the two up side-by-side and it’s hard to see much daylight… I know the Oilers need a shooter, but man if that guy falls you grab him every time. One year in SHL followed by a 12-game stint in Bakersfield and BOOM you’ve got yourself a franchise RD for the next 15 years. This kid is dynamite… and LT I’ve bookmarked your draft projections showing Ty Smith ahead of him. Five years from now we’ll re-visit… 🙂

    Always. Remember though, my list was first out of the box, lots can change between now and the end of the draft season. I’ll have a top 62 list up on Sunday if I can get itdone.

  83. bendelson says:

    I believe the Oilers organization simultaneously suffers from both delusions of grandeur and an inferiority complex. Quite the situation!

  84. godot10 says:

    DBO:
    EDM lineup at ANA:

    Maroon-McDavid-Puljujarvi
    Lucic-Draisaitl-Caggiula
    Khaira-Strome-Kassian
    Slepyshev-Letestu-Pakarinen

    Nurse-Davidson
    Klefbom-Russell
    Sekera-Benning

    Talbot

    McLellan’s Motto regarding Draisaitl:

    Do not begin as you mean to proceed.

  85. jtblack says:

    whale:
    Question for the group. What would you do if we won the lottery. First overall.

    Absolute keep Draft Dahlin. then move 1 or 2 LHD.

    PC on the other hand, would draft Dahlin Then trade Larsson for a Center.

    He likes to box himself in.

  86. jtblack says:

    VOR: Scouts tell me comparables work far better in later rounds, in terms of being truly predictive. So if you like Ondrje Palat foretells Ondrje Kase. Also there are very few high NHLE players left and that makes it far easier to justify taking skill over all other factors.

    Plus the later picks tend to be scouts’ picks. They are given far more freedom to pick and often they have seen the player they select player almost as often or more often than they have seen the first round talents. This is because they have known all year they would be making a late round pick and that it is their chance to shine. They have been bargain bin shopping if you follow me, looking for sleepers.

    Can you throw out2 or 3 names for this ywars draft; that you think will be 4th or 5th rounders and turn into players

  87. Side says:

    godot10:
    Tyler Pitlick 53 games, 10 goals, 18 points 3 years @ $1 million per season. +12
    Zack Kassian 51 games, 4 goals, 13 points 3 years @ $1.85 million per season.-3

    #ZackWatch #WhatWereTheyThinking

    I can tell you what they were thinking.

    “Zack Kassian put up 24 points in 79 games and had a huge playoff series for us against the Sharks. Pitlick gave us 11 points in 31 games and was injured yet again”

    Bit of revisionism on your part, don’t you think?

  88. who says:

    whale:
    Question for the group. What would you do if we won the lottery. First overall.

    Draft Dahlen. Sign Nurse long term. Shop Klefbom for RD or scoring winger on similar contract

  89. who says:

    OriginalPouzar:
    Maroon-McDavid-Puljujarvi
    Lucic-Draisaitl-Caggiula
    Khaira-Strome-Kassian
    Slepyshev-Letestu-Pakarinen

    Nurse-Davidson
    Klefbom-Russell
    Sekera-Benning

    Talbot

    Leon back to center and Puljijarvi back to 1RW – many will be happy about that.

    Strome and Khaira together – some will be happy about that as they have nice metrics together.

    Slepy in over Cammy – #freeslepy crowd will be happy about that.

    Kassian with a bit of a push.

    Benning demoted on merit and Davidson with a push – I’m not a big fan of Davidson playing tough minutes on his offside – he’s going to struggle moving the puck from that position.

    So does Benning. I would switch Caggulia and Slepeshev.

  90. OriginalPouzar says:

    I kind of like the lines tonight.

    Khaira and Strome have some good numbers together (granted small sample size).

    I generally want Khaira to continue to play center as I would like to see him at 4C next year and he seems to be more effective in the middle (and has professed that he’s more comfortable in the middle) but it is what it is – should happen more after Letestu is traded.

    Its interesting that he’s chosen to split Connor and Leon when those two are so hot together – he might simply be looking to get both Puljijarvi and Maroon

  91. OriginalPouzar says:

    who: Draft Dahlen. Sign Nurse long term. Shop Klefbom for RD or scoring winger on similar contract

    A Dahlin draft would likely be the one thing that would allow me to be comfortable with trading Klefbom and, yes, it would need to be for a RHD – a legit 1/2 RHD.

    WIth that said, I know Dahlin is generational, and all but a lock to be in the NHL next year, however, would it be smart to be gifting him top 4 minutes – maybe a bit of 3rd pairing time – get used to the ice, etc.?

    Are we comfortable with the left side depth chart being:

    Nurse
    Sekera
    Dahlin
    Russell
    Davidson

    Is Nurse/Sekera good enough? If Nurse doesn’t take a step back it should be OK if we have a true added 1/2RD to go with Larsson

  92. godot10 says:

    Side: I can tell you what they were thinking.

    “Zack Kassian put up 24 points in 79 games and had a huge playoff series for us against the Sharks. Pitlick gave us 11 points in 31 games and was injured yet again”

    Bit of revisionism on your part, don’t you think?

    A one million dollar salary per season has almost no risk from a cap perspective since it can be nearly completely buried in the AHL. Pitlick had finally arrived as a player, and the brainiacs shoved him out the door.

  93. godot10 says:

    OriginalPouzar:
    I kind of like the lines tonight.

    Khaira and Strome have some good numbers together (granted small sample size).

    I generally want Khaira to continue to play center as I would like to see him at 4C next year and he seems to be more effective in the middle (and has professed that he’s more comfortable in the middle) but it is what it is – should happen more after Letestu is traded.

    Its interesting that he’s chosen to split Connor and Leon when those two are so hot together – he might simply be looking to get both Puljijarvi and Maroon

    Strome has not scored since before Christmas. The “good” news is that he has compnay….Lucic.

  94. Mike Wazowski says:

    godot10,

    And no other team in the league offered a player who spent a good chunk of his career injured a three year one-way contract. I like the kid but most people here would have gone ape-scat if the Oilers made that offer.

  95. OriginalPouzar says:

    People would have lost it if he was offered the contract that Dallas offered.

    Pitlick himself was very express at his surprise over DAL’s offer – in his own words, he was just hoping to get a one-ways contract offer from a team.

  96. VOR says:

    dustrock:
    VOR,

    VOR – it would be great to build a type of cheat sheet by looking at the last 15 years of drafts and seeing if the players who make it, particularly in the 2nd round, have any particular characteristics that stand out (shot, skating, size, height, league, age at time of draft, etc).

    I can describe the average successful 2nd Rounder. But let me start of with a couple of caveats people aren’t averages and this is going to be an average. Second, several of these markers are far more important than the rest. League, size, and NHLE to be exact – you want a league that hasn’t been picked over in the first round, you want an average sized player give or take, and you want a good to outstanding NHLE (allowing for D getting less points). That said, if I knew a player was available who met all the criteria I would probably draft them. I will give a couple of perfect fit examples at the end of the list.

    shot – the words that will come up most often are quick release, accurate, average
    weight – 165 – 205
    height – 5’11 to 6.2
    skating – words that come up most often are explosive first step, above average, strong on skates
    league – probably in the United States or Europe other than the SEL-but a cradle of eminence none the less. In Canada the Q and the provincial junior leagues are common origins. The Q tends to get no respect and then it spits out some great players often in the second and later rounds.
    other words for forwards – 200 foot game, dogged checker, strong on the fore check, good at filling lanes
    other words for defense – good in transition, thinks game well, good gap control, able to handle bigger, older players in front of own net, excellent speed skating backwards, good crossovers
    other indicators – dominated league of draft origin or have strong NHLE (25+) or both, good in regular season outstanding in the playoffs
    age at time of draft – skew young but it is a weak correlation though over time it appears to be getting to be more and more strongly linked

    Want to see examples – go to 2008 and check out the two best players LT missed on his list – Roman Josi and Derek Stepan. On the other hand want to see it be much less useful, go to 2003. It would focus you on Bergeron and Carle and possibly Ericksson but you would miss Weber and Backes. It would also give you some big misses – like Danny Richmond. So not simple at all. Like most things in drafting, if it was obvious everybody would be using it.

    I hope that answers your question.

    My own approach is to build a map of these and a lot of other variables for each player but I still get complete misses. I am now starting to use my draft map, a version of NHLP, and my own depreciation/appreciation curves. I have no data yet to tell me if that improves things.

  97. Side says:

    godot10: A one million dollar salary per season has almost no risk from a cap perspective since it can be nearly completely buried in the AHL.Pitlick had finally arrived as a player, and the brainiacs shoved him out the door.

    I don’t disagree that the Oilers should have signed him.

    I disagree with your premise that the Oilers had to make a decision to pick Kassian over Pitlick, though.

    This isn’t a Highlander scenario, here.

  98. godot10 says:

    Mike Wazowski:
    godot10,

    And no other team in the league offered a player who spent a good chunk of his career injured a three year one-way contract.I like the kid but most people here would have gone ape-scat if the Oilers made that offer.

    The Oilers would not have had to offer him three years. All they had to do was qualify him at about $900K and he would have been a RFA. The Oiler probably could have had him for one year at $1 million. But the OIlers chose not to qualify him.

  99. VOR says:

    jtblack: Can you throw out2 or 3 names for this ywars draft; that you think will be 4th or 5th rounders and turn into players

    Kirill Nizhnikov – probably 4th round
    Brendan Budy – probably 4th round
    Dawson Barteaux – probably 5th round
    Luke Henman – probably 5th round
    Sean Comrie – probably 5th round

    I think all five have a chance of being NHL players.

  100. godot10 says:

    OriginalPouzar:
    People would have lost it if he was offered the contract that Dallas offered.

    Pitlick himself was very express at his surprise over DAL’s offer – in his own words, he was just hoping to get a one-ways contract offer from a team.

    The Oilers didn’t sent him a one year qualifying offer, which would have made him an RFA, and Dallas wouldn’t have been able to make the offer and/or would have had to offer the Oilers something in trade to get his rights.

  101. McSorley33 says:

    I see the Boqvist train is getting more passengers…..

    A dynamic offensive defenceman that can carry plays with the puck on his stick. A highly mobile and nimble skater that moves with fluidity, balance, and confidence. Utilizes an active stick and creates turnovers frequently. ****Offensively, Boqvist is electric; he has the toolbox of a top line forward. Slick puckhandling ability paired with excellent vision and positional awareness makes him a dangerous threat every time he is on the ice*****
    ************************************************************************************************************

    If you want the Oilers to draft – wait for it – another winger or a C to play behind McDavid, Drai and RNH…..would love to hear the detailed plan for how this org. obtains a elite offensive RHD.
    ( the need has been evident for years and years )

  102. jtblack says:

    VOR: Kirill Nizhnikov – probably 4th round
    Brendan Budy – probably 4th round
    Dawson Barteaux – probably 5th round
    Luke Henman – probably 5th round
    Sean Comrie – probably 5th round

    I think all five have a chance of being NHL players.

    Interesting. thx!

  103. godot10 says:

    godot10: The Oilers would not have had to offer him three years.All they had to do was qualify him at about $900K and he would have been a RFA. The Oiler probably could have had him for one year at $1 million.But the OIlers chose not to qualify him.

    And with Pitlick signed, the Oilers could have then driven a much harder bargain with Kassian, getting him for for less than $2 million and for less than three years.

    The Oilers went and wasted a whole bunch of NHL contracts on AHL’ers…there were lots of contracts around to sign Pitlick.

  104. McSorley33 says:

    whale,

    Run up to the podium and shout – Rasmus Dahlin

  105. OriginalPouzar says:

    godot10: The Oilers would not have had to offer him three years.All they had to do was qualify him at about $900K and he would have been a RFA. The Oiler probably could have had him for one year at $1 million.But the OIlers chose not to qualify him.

    That is not true.

    Pitlick became a group IV UFA – it had nothing to do with the Oilers not qualifying him and everything to do with him being over 25, accruing 3 professional seasons and not hitting the 80 NHL game threshold. The not playing 80 games was solely on Tyler and his injuries.

    There was no qualifying offer to be made. There was zero the Oilers could do to stop him from becoming a UFA and signing wherever he chose.

  106. OriginalPouzar says:

    godot10: The Oilers didn’t sent him a one year qualifying offer, which would have made him an RFA, and Dallas wouldn’t have been able to make the offer and/or would have had to offer the Oilers something in trade to get his rights.

    You are wrong.

    Please see the above post and acknowledge.

  107. leadfarmer says:

    McSorley33,

    If we can draft Boqvist when we draft, assuming it’s not top 2 or 3 I would’ve excstatic

  108. Bruce McCurdy says:

    Oilers lost both Pitlick and Oesterle to Group VI free agency, and were damned unlucky in both cases. Pitlick in that he was on the roster all year (& chunks of two others) but because he got hurt when he did, nbevere made the 80-game threshold. Oesterle because he turned 25 literally 1 week before the threshold date of Jun 30. Probably the youngest Group VI ever.

    Both are now useful players on conference rivals and would have been useful players for the Oil. That said the org did have a chance to negotiate with them before Jul 01 & didn’t get it done. But the players had the negotiating hammer on their side & chose to exercise it.

  109. OriginalPouzar says:

    Bruce McCurdy:
    Oilers lost both Pitlick and Oesterle to Group VI free agency, and were damned unlucky in both cases. Pitlick in that he was on the roster all year (& chunks of two others) but because he got hurt when he did, nbevere made the 80-game threshold. Oesterle because he turned 25 literally 1 week before the threshold date of Jun 30. Probably the youngest Group VI ever.

    Both are now useful players on conference rivals and would have been useful players for the Oil. That said the org did have a chance to negotiate with them before Jul 01 & didn’t get it done. But the players had the negotiating hammer on their side & chose to exercise it.

    In particular Osterle who, from accounts, had little interest in re-signing in Edmonton due to the leftorium – fair enough.

  110. Bruce McCurdy says:

    godot10: Strome has not scored since before Christmas.The “good” news is that he has compnay….Lucic.

    Since Christmas (16 games)

    Strome 0 goals
    Lucic 0 goals
    Letestu 0 goals
    Cammalleri 0 goals
    Slepyshev 0 goals
    Kassian 1 goal

    That’s half of the forward core ffs

  111. Bruce McCurdy says:

    OriginalPouzar: In particular Osterle who, from accounts, had little interest in re-signing in Edmonton due to the leftorium – fair enough.

    Yes. He did get an NHL look in all three of his seasons but not a ton of games. My point being if his mom had held on another week he would have been a no-brainer to re-up as an RFA.

  112. godot10 says:

    OriginalPouzar: That is not true.

    Pitlick became a group IV UFA – it had nothing to do with the Oilers not qualifying him and everything to do with him being over 25, accruing 3 professional seasons and not hitting the 80 NHL game threshold. The not playing 80 games was solely on Tyler and his injuries.

    There was no qualifying offer to be made.There was zero the Oilers could do to stop him from becoming a UFA and signing wherever he chose.

    My bad.

    They still could have offered him a contract. They should have offered him a contract. They paid a worse player twice as much.

  113. Woodguy v2.0 says:

    Kinger_Oil.redux,

    You either let the crew learn from their mistakes because they have a track-record of success

    Chiarelli has a history of winning one more SCF game than Lowe as a GM with the 3rd best playoff goalie performance in history and then wrecking BOS’s cap situation while trading out talent, then coming to Edmonton and doing the same.

    He didn’t learn from his BOS mistakes as he’s making them again in EDM.

    McLellan has a history of having a fantastic roster in SJS but didn’t move the needle compared to Ron Wilson, under-perform in the playoffs never making the SCF with a great team, missing the playoffs as his last year there as coach and then the team going to the SCF the first year without him.

    They both have a history that shows they repeat their mistakes over and over and do not learn from them.

    3rd and long……….time to punt

    Fire Kingsway Garden Mall

  114. Woodguy v2.0 says:

    Kinger_Oil.redux: – Yeah – a coach that hasn’t been in playoffs in 6 years, never been to semis.Shiny new toy

    – Q – He took 10 playoff appearances before he won a Cup, fired twice 1st round loser last 2.Coaches have warts, cherry-pick stats.

    – Babcock: hasn’t won a cup in 10 years.

    – Sure McL can coach up better,I bet he does: he’s got a solid track record: If you focus on specific seasons, you can crucify any coach

    – All coaches have warts: McL is in the range of coaches that win multiple Cups

    Tippett took the lowest payroll in the league to the WC Final in 11/12

  115. Side says:

    godot10: My bad.

    They still could have offered him a contract.They should have offered him a contract.They paid a worse player twice as much.

    “worse player”.

    Pretty bold statement, considering you’re basing this on a season of data for Pitlick. A season he has finally been able to play because he hasn’t had some major injury holding him back.

    But wait, the season isn’t over yet!

  116. OriginalPouzar says:

    No Jones again tonight for the Condors.

    Does anyone have any information on why he’s been out the last 3-4 games or so?

    I’ve tried and tried but can’t for the life of me find any info.

  117. frjohnk says:

    Bruce McCurdy: Since Christmas (16 games)

    Strome 0 goals
    Lucic 0 goals
    Letestu 0 goals
    Cammalleri 0 goals
    Slepyshev 0 goals
    Kassian 1 goal

    That’s half of the forward core ffs

    That’s 20% of the season and garbage secondary scoring.

    I’m not sure if this 20% of the season is worse for secondary scoring or the first 20% of the season in which the forwards who were on the ice while RNH and McDavid on the bench scored a whopping 3 goals at 5 on 5.

    Woof!
    Woof!

  118. OriginalPouzar says:

    Congrats to Mr. Willis on his new position at The Athletic Edmonton!

  119. OriginalPouzar says:

    Bruce McCurdy: Since Christmas (16 games)

    Strome 0 goals
    Lucic 0 goals
    Letestu 0 goals
    Cammalleri 0 goals
    Slepyshev 0 goals
    Kassian 1 goal

    That’s half of the forward core ffs

    That is a depressing list but it also shows that any one particular stat is no necessarily indicative of play.

    In the case of Strome, I think we all would agree that he’s played his best hockey of the year during that stretch – carrying the puck with authority, making plays in the offensive zone, creating chances, battling on the boards and cycling, etc. – he does have some points and could have had a good 5 more if 2 weren’t called back on bad reviews and a few great set ups were buried.

    Bottom 6 isn’t scoring right not though, clearly.

  120. Gayfish says:

    godot10:
    Tyler Pitlick 53 games, 10 goals, 18 points 3 years @ $1 million per season. +12
    Zack Kassian 51 games, 4 goals, 13 points 3 years @ $1.85 million per season.-3

    #ZackWatch #WhatWereTheyThinking

    Chia doesn’t get enough hate for that contract. It’s similar to the Russel deal. Can pay a fourth liner $2mil, but can’t pay a 2nd liner 4?

  121. Gayfish says:

    OriginalPouzar: That is a depressing list but it also shows that any one particular stat is no necessarily indicative of play.

    In the case of Strome, I think we all would agree that he’s played his best hockey of the year during that stretch – carrying the puck with authority, making plays in the offensive zone, creating chances, battling on the boards and cycling, etc. – he does have some points and could have had a good 5 more if 2 weren’t called back on bad reviews and a few great set ups were buried.

    Bottom 6 isn’t scoring right not though, clearly.

    #visuallybetter

  122. dustrock says:

    Woodguy v2.0:
    Kinger_Oil.redux,

    You either let the crew learn from their mistakes because they have a track-record of success

    Chiarelli has a history of winning one more SCF game than Lowe as a GM with the 3rd best playoff goalie performance in history and then wrecking BOS’s cap situation while trading out talent, then coming to Edmonton and doing the same.

    He didn’t learn from his BOS mistakes as he’s making them again in EDM.

    McLellan has a history of having a fantastic roster in SJS but didn’t move the needle compared to Ron Wilson, under-perform in the playoffs never making the SCF with a great team, missing the playoffs as his last year there as coach and then the team going to the SCF the first year without him.

    They both have a history that shows they repeat their mistakes over and over and do not learn from them.

    3rd and long……….time to punt

    Fire Kingsway Garden Mall

    I agree with this, although as a long-time Sharks fan, they never got the goaltending they needed. 2 of their better years they ran into the Hawks team that had one of the more ridiculous rosters in years (when Campbell, Big Buff, etc were all there), and they lost to the Canucks, who were clearly the class of the NHL and should have beaten the mighty Bruins. The Kings loss was brutal but they lost Vlasic and they didn’t have the defensive depth to overcome that.

  123. pts2pndr says:

    I can say with certainty that I did not see this years team being where they are! I also believe that there should be a forensic accounting of what went wrong and why. As fans there is too much that we just do not know! They include injuries and there impact. How many players were either playing banged up and or playing at less than 100 percent health wise. The Flu bug that went through the team! The effect of change in personnel that sent Pouliot one of our best penalty killers out of town. These are only a few of the things as fans we do not know. We also have no idea of who was available player wise ,in the off season and or the price their teams were asking.
    If the management team uses the off season to restock the cupboard prospect wise and makes a few judicious player changes I can see this year as being turned into a positive for the future of the organization. While I know it is not popular to preach patience I believe that it is more important than at any other time in the recent past to do just that!

  124. Woodguy v2.0 says:

    godot10: My bad.

    They still could have offered him a contract.They should have offered him a contract.They paid a worse player twice as much.

    Pitlick said “I was just hoping for a one way contract”

    Peter could have offered him 900K one way, 1 year and he would have taken it before July 1

  125. OriginalPouzar says:

    Safin with a goal and 3 shots half way through the first period.

  126. prefonmich says:

    godot10,

    I agree they should have signed Pitlick but nobody was saying Kassian was a poor signing at the start of the season. After his playoffs and goal scoring last year it appeared like a decent bet but chia probably could’ve negotiated a little lower and also signed Pitlick to supplement the very bare right side.

  127. Jethro Tull says:

    Woodguy v2.0: Tippett took the lowest payroll in the league to the WC Final in 11/12

    Yeah? How’s he been doing recently.

    MacT took Chris Pronger nd some other guys to a Stanley cup final. And here we are.

  128. --hudson-- says:

    VOR: My own approach is to build a map of these and a lot of other variables for each player but I still get complete misses. I am now starting to use my draft map, a version of NHLP, and my own depreciation/appreciation curves. I have no data yet to tell me if that improves things.

    Fascinating as always!

    It’s fair to expect complete misses in any model, so perhaps you are being too hard on yourself? Plus your data will have issues where the intrinsic value of a player was worth investing a draft pick in however they never got the full opportunity in the NHL for whatever reason (stacked roster, injury, stubborn coach, etc.). I liked the model brought up on Canucks Nation drafting the next highest point per game player from the CHL as a baseline. So the quality of your optimization is measured not by the number of misses like Danny Richmond, but by the difference in NHLp or games played versus the model proposed by the Canucks writer.

    One other thing that jumps to mind is the changing trends of the NHL draft. For instance the NHLp from an 90s player is less relevant than the NHLp from a current player. This would be due to different styles of play, different number of teams. For instance if a player like Danny Briere would be available in the draft this year, how high would he go? Higher right? Interesting to think about how to model these differences.

  129. Lowetide says:

    OriginalPouzar:
    Congrats to Mr. Willis on his new position at The Athletic Edmonton!

    Amen to that. Jon has earned every opportunity that has arrived for him and I’m sure he’ll do very well in his new role.

  130. Gayfish says:

    Think Tippet would come in as a 1A for the rest of the season, and maybe next?
    prefonmich,

    I think there was a lot of summer stuff we were leary of, but let slide because of the playoffs. The second year on Gryba is another example. Then obviously the Pouliot buyout and Eberle trade. Chia had earned quite a but of leash-probably more than he deserved.

  131. Scungilli Slushy says:

    whale:
    Question for the group. What would you do if we won the lottery. First overall.

    I would jump up and down and holler Woot Woot. An inch lower and a smidge quieter than for Connor. Thank goodness nobody was home that afternoon.

  132. Lowetide says:

    Woodguy v2.0: Pitlick said “I was just hoping for a one way contract”

    Peter could have offered him 900K one way, 1 year and he would have taken it before July 1

    Are we sure of that? I mean, he said “I was hoping for a one-way contract” but did he and his agent decide to wait until July 1 no matter what Edmonton offered? I’m not arguing the point, for me Pitlick wasa player Edmonton had invested in long term and now they don’t see the fruits of their labor. I’m inclined to believe (as McCurdy mentioned above) the injury mean free agency and the player plus agent thought it would be a good time to go to market.

    Unless there’s more in the quote that you mentioned.

  133. Scungilli Slushy says:

    godot10:
    Tyler Pitlick 53 games, 10 goals, 18 points 3 years @ $1 million per season. +12
    Zack Kassian 51 games, 4 goals, 13 points 3 years @ $1.85 million per season.-3

    #ZackWatch #WhatWereTheyThinking

    Zach could pull Pitlick’s arms off and beat him with the sloppy ends. There’s that.

  134. Scungilli Slushy says:

    frjohnk: That’s 20% of the season and garbage secondary scoring.

    I’m not sure if this 20% of the season is worse for secondary scoring or the first 20% of the season in which the forwards who were on the ice while RNH and McDavid on the bench scored a whopping 3 goals at 5 on 5.

    Woof!
    Woof!

    I think the narrative about getting out of the western conference is at the root of this. Because the Ducks and Kings were/are thugs and apparently every centre is an ogre that’s what you need.

    Other than teams amping up on speed and skill win the Cups the last more than few years.

    You need players that engage and don’t let intimidation put them off. But at the end of the game pucks in net wins.

    Solid goalering
    Able D core at pushing the puck forward
    Elite forwards

    The Oilers aren’t that far off right now.

  135. VOR says:

    So a bit about each prospect –

    Luke Henman, LC, a star in Midget in Nova Scotia – now plays with Blainvillle – Boisbriand in the Q. Averaging about .75 points per game while undergoing a significant adolescent growth spurt. Created much ill will by not signing with Cape Breton (who drafted him) last year. Hockey IQ off the charts, elite skater, still not exactly large or strong. But on his way. Captained his midget team last year. A very serious kid. Also one of the younger kids in this draft.

    Brendan Budy – hard to classify plays both wings and center for the Langley Rivermen in the BCHL – and yes I know. But despite being one of youngest players in this draft (June 6th birth date) he is the team Captain and leading scorer. He is what LT calls a burner. Already committed to University of Denver he is a draft and wait. A truly great PKer by the way. A graduate of DHA.

    Sean Comrie – RD. There is no missing the talent this home town boy possesses. He is already physically mature despite an end of January birth date. Playing in Spruce Grove he is getting a fair amount of attention. He is a plus skater, a plus shot, and thinks the game at a high level. Also committed to the University of Denver. Another draft and wait. Also a DHA graduate.

    Kirill Nizhnikov – what can I say, big fast, elusive, goes to the hard areas, plays all three forward positions (sometimes on the same shift) though mostly a right winger who shoots left, good to great shot with unusual release that fools goaltenders. When he wants it absolutely dominant at the junior level. Injury last year, a horrible slump this year, a trade he forced, a long history of being “difficult”, and a first round talent drops to 161 in NA in Central Scouting’s rankings – kid has sideburns down to his skates. I’d take a flyer on him a lot earlier than 5th round. Another younger player with some clear maturity issues. A boom or bust pick but has a huge, huge upside.

    Dawson Barteaux – my sleeper pick for 2018. Mostly I would say nobody in their right mind would draft the Red Deer Rebels d man, even though he is a righty. For a high WHL bantam draft pick he has underwhelmed. A mid January birthday he should be better than he is. Offsetting that is what happened earlier this year when he filled in on Red Deer’s top pair. He suddenly looked like a star in waiting, given opportunity he was electric. Many scouts say what he says himself, he needs to work on the physical side of his game. Coaches say it too. He isn’t exactly engaged in the physical part of the game. What nobody says is that he needs to work on his skating because he is a plus skater, nor his shot, it may not be a cannon but he has an outstanding release and is pinpoint accurate, nor his transition game because he is blessed with quick feet, quick hands and an even quicker brain. if he figures out the defensive side of the game Barteaux has the tools to be an outstanding pro.

  136. OriginalPouzar says:

    Safin adds a second goal near the end of the 2nd. 2-2.

  137. Woodguy v2.0 says:

    Jethro Tull: Yeah? How’s he been doing recently.

    MacT took Chris Pronger nd some other guys to a Stanley cup final. And here we are.

    What exactly does that mean?

    “Coach A took the cheapest payroll in the league to the WCF”

    “Yeah, well Coach B took a great possession team with the best Dman in the league playing half the game to within one game of the Cup”

    …..
    ……

    Ok then.

  138. Woodguy v2.0 says:

    Lowetide: Are we sure of that? I mean, he said “I was hoping for a one-way contract” but did he and his agent decide to wait until July 1 no matter what Edmonton offered? I’m not arguing the point, for me Pitlick wasa player Edmonton had invested in long term and now they don’t see the fruits of their labor. I’m inclined to believe (as McCurdy mentioned above)the injury mean free agency and the player plus agent thought it would be a good time to go to market.

    Unless there’s more in the quote that you mentioned.

    Not sure, but when a player is “hoping” for a one way contract it’s not a stretch to suggest he’d accept one if presented.

  139. Scungilli Slushy says:

    VOR:
    So a bit about each prospect –

    Luke Henman, LC, a star in Midget in Nova Scotia – now plays with Blainvillle – Boisbriand in the Q. Averaging about .75 points per game while undergoing a significant adolescent growth spurt. Created much ill will by not signing with Cape Breton (who drafted him) last year. Hockey IQ off the charts, elite skater, still not exactly large or strong. But on his way. Captained his midget team last year. A very serious kid. Also one of the younger kids in this draft.

    Brendan Budy – hard to classify plays both wings and center for the Langley Rivermen in the BCHL – and yes I know. But despite being one of youngest players in this draft (June 6th birth date) he is the team Captain and leading scorer. He is what LT calls a burner. Already committed to University of Denver he is a draft and wait. A truly great PKer by the way. A graduate of DHA.

    Sean Comrie – RD. There is no missing the talent this home town boy possesses. He is already physically mature despite an end of January birth date. Playing in Spruce Grove he is getting a fair amount of attention. He is a plus skater, a plus shot, and thinks the game at a high level. Also committed to the University of Denver. Another draft and wait. Also a DHA graduate.

    Kirill Nizhnikov – what can I say, big fast, elusive, goes to the hard areas, plays all three forward positions (sometimes on the same shift) though mostly a right winger who shoots left, good to great shot with unusual release that fools goaltenders. When he wants it absolutely dominant at the junior level. Injury last year, a horrible slump this year, a trade he forced, a long history of being “difficult”, and a first round talent drops to 161 in NA in Central Scouting’s rankings – kid has sideburns down to his skates. I’d take a flyer on him a lot earlier than 5th round. Another younger player with some clear maturity issues. A boom or bust pick but has a huge, huge upside.

    Dawson Barteaux – my sleeper pick for 2018. Mostly I would say nobody in their right mind would draft the Red Deer Rebels d man, even though he is a righty. For a high WHL bantam draft pick he has underwhelmed. A mid January birthday he should be better than he is. Offsetting that is what happened earlier this year when he filled in on Red Deer’s top pair. He suddenly looked like a star in waiting, given opportunity he was electric. Many scouts say what he says himself, he needs to work on the physical side of his game. Coaches say it too. He isn’t exactly engaged in the physical part of the game. What nobody says is that he needs to work on his skating because he is a plus skater, nor his shot, it may not be a cannon but he has an outstanding release and is pinpoint accurate, nor his transition game because he is blessed with quick feet, quick hands and an even quicker brain. if he figures out the defensive side of the game Barteaux has the tools to be an outstanding pro.

    I completely agree with this line of thinking. All potential, no fatal flaws. The Oilers have drafted fatal flaws too many times. Not surprisingly that doesn’t tend to work out.

  140. HenryDrix says:

    Really want to see Lucic bloody Getzlaf. Retribution for the hit that took out Sekera last spring. I will never forget Getzlaf rag dolling Sekera and not even getting 2 mins. I want REVENGE! Bust him up! Bust them all up!

  141. prefonmich says:

    Lowetide,

    What bothers me is apparently cheap useful players are not being kept by this organization and Chia is overpaying and overterming (my new word) for players that fill similar needs. Or leaving holes. Either way. Not. Good.
    Examples: Letestu vs Lander
    Pitlick vs kassian
    Oesterle now Auvitu vs Russell
    Next is Slepyshev.
    Not just on gm but another issue is coach overpaying certain vets who are not always the best fit and not giving much opportunity or leash to younger players.

  142. OilClog says:

    Sens owner Melnyk hints at roster rebuilding after extending GM
    https://www.thescore.com/nhl/news/1483156

    Move whatever you need to not named Mcdavid.

  143. VOR says:

    VOR:
    Hudson,

    Modelling is difficult in any setting. The NHL presents a number of wicked challenges for modelers. One of which, is of course what do you do to correct for era so you get a large enough data base to spot trends and patterns.

    Imagine a player who plays 70 games in the Q and scores 32 goals, adds 53 assists, for 85 points and lets be kind and say he might be able to beat a glacier in a skating contest but I wouldn’t want to bet on it. We know that got him drafted so late in the draft that nobody from the team that drafted him was even there to shake his hand and give him a jersey. Today 85 points in the Q probably gets you into the top four rounds, some years it is probably a late second round pick. Yet we also know none of the modern Q players with 85 points regardless of foot speed will retire with boxcars of

    1431 668 726 1394

    So how do you allow for the fact that once upon a time 85 points in the Q didn’t even get you noticed, never mind predict a Hall of Fame career?

  144. OriginalPouzar says:

    Woodguy v2.0: Not sure, but when a player is “hoping” for a one way contract it’s not a stretch to suggest he’d accept one if presented.

    I guess this speculation would include some sort of ultimatum from the organization that the offer expired before July 1.

  145. Scungilli Slushy says:

    OriginalPouzar: I guess this speculation would include some sort of ultimatum from the organization that the offer expired before July 1.

    I read he was never offered a contract, his words.

    The bigger issue here is cutting bait on the wrong players and keeping some for wrong reasons and ignoring history. Loving Caggiula despite production etc.

    Kassian is a great story, but one good stretch given his history was not a good bet. Certainly Pitllick had injuries but IMO Kassian’s fighting was the tipping point. Do they know it’s over? Getzlaf is a prick of the highest order but he won’t fight. So cheap shot him or out score him.

    Outscoring is better but I have to admit a little Messier retribution would suit me fine with how Getzlaf’s hit has screwed this season and hopefully not Sekera’s career. I watched replays and for me that looked intentional. In timing and intent. Your opinion may vary.

  146. OriginalPouzar says:

    Safin adds an assist early in the 3rd.

  147. OriginalPouzar says:

    Rasanen with a goal for Boston College in the 2nd – 1-0.

  148. thehop says:

    Scungilli Slushy,

    Getzlaf will fight..

    Never against someone who could beat his ass but I’ve seen him get into it.

    I’m always amazed at the bipolarity of opinion on Kassian.

    Less than a year ago, he was mana from heaven in the playoffs. This year not so much.

    I like him as a player becuase he goes out and does all the dirty shit Lucic gets paid to not do anymore. Breaking Duninsky’s face after years of running around on the Oilers…. Love it.
    First guy in the scrum. Last guy out. Sure he takes dumb penalties sometimes but for what he gets paid, I think he’s worth every penny.

  149. Munny says:

    VOR,

    Please never stop posting.

  150. Harpers Hair says:

    Woodguy v2.0:
    Kinger_Oil.redux,

    You either let the crew learn from their mistakes because they have a track-record of success

    Chiarelli has a history of winning one more SCF game than Lowe as a GM with the 3rd best playoff goalie performance in history and then wrecking BOS’s cap situation while trading out talent, then coming to Edmonton and doing the same.

    He didn’t learn from his BOS mistakes as he’s making them again in EDM.

    McLellan has a history of having a fantastic roster in SJS but didn’t move the needle compared to Ron Wilson, under-perform in the playoffs never making the SCF with a great team, missing the playoffs as his last year there as coach and then the team going to the SCF the first year without him.

    They both have a history that shows they repeat their mistakes over and over and do not learn from them.

    3rd and long……….time to punt

    Fire Kingsway Garden Mall

    A cursory examination of their records would suggest they were both bad hires. As LT says, you develop a past.

  151. HT Joe says:

    prefonmich:
    Lowetide,

    What bothers me is apparently cheap useful players are not being kept by this organization and Chia is overpaying and overterming (my new word) for players that fill similar needs. Or leaving holes. Either way. Not. Good.
    Examples: Letestu vs Lander
    Pitlick vs kassian
    Oesterle now Auvitu vs Russell
    Next is Slepyshev.
    Not just on gm but another issue is coach overpaying certain vets who are not always the best fit and not giving much opportunity or leash to younger players.

    You missed Reinhart vs. Marincin

  152. Munny says:

    Woodguy v2.0: Not sure, but when a player is “hoping” for a one way contract it’s not a stretch to suggest he’d accept one if presented.

    Over a three year deal? That does seem like a stretch, actually.

  153. hunter1909 says:

    thehop:
    Scungilli Slushy,

    Getzlaf will fight..

    Never against someone who could beat his ass but I’ve seen him get into it.

    I’m always amazed at the bipolarity of opinion on Kassian.

    Less than a year ago, he was mana from heaven in the playoffs. This year not so much.

    I like him as a player becuase he goes out and does all the dirty shit Lucic gets paid to not do anymore. Breaking Duninsky’s face after years of running around on the Oilers…. Love it.
    First guy in the scrum. Last guy out. Sure he takes dumb penalties sometimes but for what he gets paid, I think he’s worth every penny.

    Oilers have returned to being losers, and that sucks; on the bright side the players no longer get their asses handed to them like MacT and his manky cast of characters used to negligently assume was automatic in NHL level players… because friends toughness is a relative thing – in case of the Oilers they at least no longer have to play against teams that leave them bleeding.

  154. OilClog says:

    Whatever the results are, at the start and in the end TMac will be wearing a fancy suit.

  155. HT Joe says:

    Munny: Over a three year deal?That does seem like s stretch, actually.

    But if the Oilers had signed Pitlick when they had the chance, Pitlick wouldn’t have been presented with a 3-year contract, no?

  156. Scungilli Slushy says:

    thehop:
    Scungilli Slushy,

    Getzlaf will fight..

    Never against someone who could beat his ass but I’ve seen him get into it.

    I’m always amazed at the bipolarity of opinion on Kassian.

    Less than a year ago, he was mana from heaven in the playoffs. This year not so much.

    I like him as a player becuase he goes out and does all the dirty shit Lucic gets paid to not do anymore. Breaking Duninsky’s face after years of running around on the Oilers…. Love it.
    First guy in the scrum. Last guy out. Sure he takes dumb penalties sometimes but for what he gets paid, I think he’s worth every penny.

    Agreed but at his salary he also needs to get points as well.

  157. OriginalPouzar says:

    Samorukov with a PP goal.

  158. hunter1909 says:

    Pitlick was a problem prospect that the idiot Oilers have gifted to another team, just like they did with Eberle, and Taylor Hall.

    Replaced with NYI bust Strome and, wait for it…Cammillari who was washed up 2-3 teams ago? Oilers casually toss 2 fucking 1st round picks away for another busted flush in Reinhart!? And now they’re set to lose Maroon, their only decent top 6 player not making over $6 million.

    But let’s preach patience! Eventually, these guys are supposed to get it right, right?

  159. JimmyV1965 says:

    Lowetide: Are we sure of that? I mean, he said “I was hoping for a one-way contract” but did he and his agent decide to wait until July 1 no matter what Edmonton offered? I’m not arguing the point, for me Pitlick wasa player Edmonton had invested in long term and now they don’t see the fruits of their labor. I’m inclined to believe (as McCurdy mentioned above)the injury mean free agency and the player plus agent thought it would be a good time to go to market.

    Unless there’s more in the quote that you mentioned.

    Why would he not wait until July 1? Of course he would. Unless Chis offered some ridiculous deal.

  160. hunter1909 says:

    …Just one more of those top 3-10 draft picks!

  161. Munny says:

    HT Joe: But if the Oilers had signed Pitlick when they had the chance, Pitlick wouldn’t have been presented with a 3-year contract, no?

    He was a Group IV UFA, so his agent, if he was worth the money he was being paid would’ve said, “It’s great we have this offer, and if nothing better comes along July 1, we’re signing it, but it behooves my UFA client to see what July 1 brings.”

    As OP states above, an Oiler offer would have needed to have a June 30 deadline to see if it could force the player’s hand and even then–and considering the new “romance period” prior to FA–there would be no guarantee it would work.

    Likely the Oilers were hoping there would be no takers, meaning they could then make a lowball offer and get the player on a two way or for cheap money.

  162. Scungilli Slushy says:

    hunter1909: Oilers have returned to being losers, and that sucks; on the bright side the players no longer get their asses handed to them like MacT and his manky cast of characters used to negligently assume was automatic in NHL level players… because friends toughness is a relative thing – in case of the Oilers they at least no longer have to play against teams that leave them bleeding.

    I’m all about it if you aren’t replacing skill to do that.

    Thinking Lucic replaces Hall is silly on the Oilers part. They could have ditched EBERLE and had Hall and Lucic.

    This is why I think it was about sideburns. And OBC, although Chia holds the bag, they wouldn’t have hired him if he didn’t share the vision.

  163. hunter1909 says:

    Considering the craptosity of the team, Chiarelli’s sure being a strange character, hiding in the wings like a Victorian Railroad villain.

  164. hunter1909 says:

    Scungilli Slushy: I’m all about itif you aren’t replacing skill to do that.

    Thinking Lucic replaces Hall is silly on the Oilers part. They could have ditched EBERLE and had Hall and Lucic.

    This is why I think it was about sideburns. And OBC, although Chia holds the bag, they wouldn’t have hired him if he didn’t share the vision.

    Losing Hall, 2X 1st round picks, Eberle, Schultz(2x cup winner since leaving the OBC), while completely failing to provide a defence that can clear it’s zone is the sign of a terminally sick franchise.

  165. Munny says:

    JimmyV1965,

    Precisely.

  166. Pescador says:

    hunter1909: Oilers have returned to being losers, and that sucks; on the bright side the players no longer get their asses handed to them like MacT and his manky cast of characters used to negligently assume was automatic in NHL level players… because friends toughness is a relative thing – in case of the Oilers they at least no longer have to play against teams that leave them bleeding.

    Member when our young talented players would just continually get ground into a pulp, hammered at every turn, & lose game after game? So many limp dick veterans year after year.
    Ahh fond memories,
    they can never take those from us

  167. jtblack says:

    VOR:
    So a bit about each prospect –

    Luke Henman, LC, a star in Midget in Nova Scotia – now plays with Blainvillle – Boisbriand in the Q. Averaging about .75 points per game while undergoing a significant adolescent growth spurt. Created much ill will by not signing with Cape Breton (who drafted him) last year. Hockey IQ off the charts, elite skater, still not exactly large or strong. But on his way. Captained his midget team last year. A very serious kid. Also one of the younger kids in this draft.

    Brendan Budy – hard to classify plays both wings and center for the Langley Rivermen in the BCHL – and yes I know. But despite being one of youngest players in this draft (June 6th birth date) he is the team Captain and leading scorer. He is what LT calls a burner. Already committed to University of Denver he is a draft and wait. A truly great PKer by the way. A graduate of DHA.

    Sean Comrie – RD. There is no missing the talent this home town boy possesses. He is already physically mature despite an end of January birth date. Playing in Spruce Grove he is getting a fair amount of attention. He is a plus skater, a plus shot, and thinks the game at a high level. Also committed to the University of Denver. Another draft and wait. Also a DHA graduate.

    Kirill Nizhnikov – what can I say, big fast, elusive, goes to the hard areas, plays all three forward positions (sometimes on the same shift) though mostly a right winger who shoots left, good to great shot with unusual release that fools goaltenders. When he wants it absolutely dominant at the junior level. Injury last year, a horrible slump this year, a trade he forced, a long history of being “difficult”, and a first round talent drops to 161 in NA in Central Scouting’s rankings – kid has sideburns down to his skates. I’d take a flyer on him a lot earlier than 5th round. Another younger player with some clear maturity issues. A boom or bust pick but has a huge, huge upside.

    Dawson Barteaux – my sleeper pick for 2018. Mostly I would say nobody in their right mind would draft the Red Deer Rebels d man, even though he is a righty. For a high WHL bantam draft pick he has underwhelmed. A mid January birthday he should be better than he is. Offsetting that is what happened earlier this year when he filled in on Red Deer’s top pair. He suddenly looked like a star in waiting, given opportunity he was electric. Many scouts say what he says himself, he needs to work on the physical side of his game. Coaches say it too. He isn’t exactly engaged in the physical part of the game. What nobody says is that he needs to work on his skating because he is a plus skater, nor his shot, it may not be a cannon but he has an outstanding release and is pinpoint accurate, nor his transition game because he is blessed with quick feet, quick hands and an even quicker brain. if he figures out the defensive side of the game Barteaux has the tools to be an outstanding pro.

    very Interesting Thx

  168. Scungilli Slushy says:

    thehop: Getzlaf will fight..
    Never against someone who could beat his ass but I’ve seen him get into it.

    The definition of a cowardly bully.

    I had respect for his ability before that series. Now I think he’s a punk. A highly capable punk.

  169. hunter1909 says:

    Pescador: Member when our young talented players would just continually get ground into a pulp, hammered at every turn, & lose game after game? So many limp dick veterans year after year.
    Ahh fond memories,they can never take those from us

    Post Lowe+MacT Management/OBC solution? Bring in goons then trade away the young, talented players.

  170. VOR says:

    Hudson,

    One of the things I believe people don’t understand about the draft – well we know it but don’t think through the implications – is that it is a multi-player game where each move effects every other move.

    So one of the things I have noticed is that if a few large players are drafted early you will see two responses emerging among other players. One set of teams will start making being big a deciding factor in how they rank the remaining prospects. Big will be better for those teams. Presumably they don’t want to be left behind when a big man trend emerges.

    A second set of drafting teams will start chasing small players, they go all contrary. If the trend is big they want small. Presumably they see an arbitrage opportunity. Only a handful of teams remain trend neutral.

    This plays out with trends like drafting D, drafting goalies high, etc, etc.

    But then further compounding things is that internal team politics come into play. And how do you model that?

    I am about to tell a story, in my next post, that I call “The Giant in the Snow” that shows how insanely far political events among a team’s management can change who gets drafted and when. The story is about the player who saved the most screwed up franchise in NHL history, how he came to be drafted, and the odd events that totally defy everything we know about predicting draft success.

  171. Scungilli Slushy says:

    hunter1909: Losing Hall, 2X 1st round picks, Eberle, Schultz(2x cup winner since leaving the OBC), while completely failing to provide a defence that can clear it’s zone is the sign of a terminally sick franchise.

    Yup. Their answer to failure was get rid of the best players which is what losing franchises do. LT has said this constantly for truth.

  172. Munny says:

    Scungilli Slushy,

    Pretty sure Eberle was not going to bring Larsson.

  173. hunter1909 says:

    This is a question that I’d like everyone to answer:

    Since Chiarelli + company are responsible for the disaster that’s this team, please give 1 valid reason why anyone in their right mind should think there’s any hope, aside from an eventual McDavid as Pavel Bure 1994 drag his team into the finals then lose scenario?

  174. Munny says:

    VOR,

    Is it Yzerman?

    Sorry, sorry, I will wait for the story.

  175. Pescador says:

    hunter1909:
    PS: Add Yamamoto, that 140 pound dwarf who’s 80% certain to be a complete bust.

    Add failing to get a decent backup goalie.

    Add the worst PK in the NHL.

    Man,
    Can’t you wait until next year to rail against this player?
    Yes, because no undersized scoring winger has ever succeeded in the NHL,
    Ever
    Don’t cheer against Oiler prospects pls & thx

  176. hunter1909 says:

    Scungilli Slushy: Yup. Their answer to failure was get rid of the best players which is what losing franchises do. LT has said this constantly for truth.

    I have to admit, I was hoping they would suddenly get better then you remember Cammillari’s expected to carry the team offensively then you turn out the light and go home.

  177. Scungilli Slushy says:

    VOR:
    Hudson,

    One of the things I believe people don’t understand about the draft – well we know it but don’t think through the implications – is that it is a multi-player game where each move effects every other move.

    So one of the things I have noticed is that if a few large players are drafted early you will see two responses emerging among other players. One set of teams will start making being big a deciding factor in how they rank the remaining prospects. Big will be better for those teams. Presumably they don’t want to be left behind when a big man trend emerges.

    A second set of drafting teams will start chasing small players, they go all contrary. If the trend is big they want small. Presumably they see an arbitrage opportunity. Only a handful of teams remain trend neutral.

    This plays out with trends like drafting D, drafting goalies high, etc, etc.

    But then further compounding things is that internal team politics come into play. And how do you model that?

    I am about to tell a story, in my next post, that I call “The Giant in the Snow” that shows how insanely far political events among a team’s management can change who gets drafted and when. The story is about the player who saved the most screwed up franchise in NHL history, how he came to be drafted, and the odd events that totally defy everything we know about predicting draft success.

    I have been harping on for a long time about drafting players in the most successful size and skill range which is NHL normal. Unless outstanding abilities. Because it is so obvious that most useful players come from there.

    Looking for outliers is mostly wasting picks.

  178. Pescador says:

    hunter1909:
    This is a question that I’d like everyone to answer:

    Since Chiarelli + company are responsible for the disaster that’s this team, please give 1 valid reason why anyone in their right mind should think there’s any hope, aside from an eventual McDavid as Pavel Bure 1994 drag his team into the finals then lose scenario?

    I’m with you, Chiarelli has fucked it up.
    No question,
    McDavid is 21,
    If it’s all over now, not salvageable,
    Point me to the nearest bridge & I’ll push you off
    😄

  179. hunter1909 says:

    Pescador: Man,
    Can’t you wait until next year to rail against this player?
    Yes, because no undersized scoring winger has ever succeeded in the NHL,
    Ever
    Don’t cheer against Oiler prospects pls & thx

    Whose cheering against? I’ve seen him play and he looked 11 years old out there.

    Combined this with the fact that someone running things thought it was a good idea to play this prospect to start with and he was useless.

    I was overly generous with my 1 in 5 chance for him to succeed. Thanks to you, I’ll increase the odds to 1 in 7 lol

  180. Pescador says:

    Scungilli Slushy: Yup. Their answer to failure was get rid of the best players which is what losing franchises do. LT has said this constantly for truth.

    Except for Jultz his confidence was gone and he was unwatchable at the end

  181. hunter1909 says:

    Pescador: I’m with you, Chiarelli has fucked it up.
    No question,
    McDavid is 21,
    If it’s all over now, not salvageable,
    Point me to the nearest bridge & I’ll push you off

    I get it. Like, they fire Chiarelli in 1-2 seasons, then someone competent steps in and everything turns out great, like Chicago/Pittsburgh.

    Now I feel better. And look forward to them playing spoiler vs the Ducks.

  182. Harpers Hair says:

    An Edmonton win tonight would be a big win for Calgary. Pick your poison.

  183. hunter1909 says:

    Pescador: Except for Jultz his confidence was gone and he was unwatchable at the end

    That’s all down to the genius of Lowe+MacT.

  184. Scungilli Slushy says:

    Munny:
    Scungilli Slushy,

    Pretty sure Eberle was not going to bring Larsson.

    I don’t know but he is and was a top level winger in scoring. Toss in a pick and it isn’t enough for a player considered by most a second pair D? Larsson did not have a high rep as I took it and NJ didn’t think he was that good by usage. They used him top pair but were limited in options.

    High end first pair RD go for more than wingers with a spotty rep off a horrible team IMO. We won’t know until the retirement books come out.

  185. Lowetide says:

    I have noticed over past weeks,with increasing frequency, some unusual words being used in regard to Kailer Yamamoto. Now I understand he is a target for many of you, but the young man didn’t get himself drafted by Edmonton, the Oilers did it all by their lonesome.

    So.

    I’m kind of being forced by these inappropriate descriptions. Tolerate them and allow poor behavior, or time out people of value because they think it’s funny, etc.

    I have decided timing out is the right play. It begins now.

  186. Pescador says:

    hunter1909: I get it. Like, they fire Chiarelli in 1-2 seasons, then someone competent steps in and everything turns out great, like Chicago/Pittsburgh.

    Now I feel better. And look forward to them playing spoiler vs the Ducks.

    That’s the spirit!
    Speaking of spirits I’m off to the liquor store in preparation of tonight’s gladiatorial combatency
    Can I pick anything up for you?
    I recommend the Moonshine, it’s aged 15 minutes

  187. JimmyV1965 says:

    By the end Schultz absolutely had to go from this team. He was booed every game, he had zero confidence. No question we screwed up his development, but by the time Chia arrived the die was cast. One caveat I guess. Tmac should have sheltered him. But he needed to shelter all his dmen.

  188. Munny says:

    Scungilli Slushy: I don’t know but he is and was a top level winger in scoring. Toss in a pick and it isn’t enough for a player considered by most a second pair D? Larsson did not have a high rep as I took it and NJ didn’t think he was that good by usage. They used him top pair but were limited in options.

    High end first pair RD go for more than wingers with a spotty rep off a horrible team IMO. We won’t know until the retirement books come out.

    I’m not sure if the bidding started at Ebs, but the story AFAIK it is the Devils got offered Landeskog for him later in the negotiation. Hall was the only thing we had that would beat Landeskog. Now you might have walked away at that point and fair enough (and certainly Tambo would have), but Chia did not.

  189. OriginalPouzar says:

    Wow, someone is sure in a mood tonight – spouting wild exaggerations to further a narrative.

    Rinse and repeat.

    I wonder what is new to chat about?

    Oh ya, the Oilers play a hockey game tonight.

    Every game give us more information about the team, the player and the right path forward.

    Here is hoping that Davidson can hold his own on his off-side on a big minutes pairing.

    Here is hoping that Khaira can continue his level of play when not in his natural position.

    Here is hoping Slepy can have a great game on the fourth line that starts a string of games – time to run with the opportunity Anton.

    Here is hoping Strome can continue to play well on the PK and as the 3C.

    Go Oilers!

  190. OriginalPouzar says:

    Rasanen with a solid line tonight – 1G and 5 shots. Good stuff.

  191. ArmchairGM says:

    OriginalPouzar: A Dahlin draft would likely be the one thing that would allow me to be comfortable with trading Klefbom and, yes, it would need to be for a RHD – a legit 1/2 RHD.

    WIth that said, I know Dahlin is generational, and all but a lock to be in the NHL next year, however, would it be smart to be gifting him top 4 minutes – maybe a bit of 3rd pairing time – get used to the ice, etc.?

    Are we comfortable with the left side depth chart being:

    Nurse
    Sekera
    Dahlin
    Russell
    Davidson

    Is Nurse/Sekera good enough?If Nurse doesn’t take a step back it should be OK if we have a true added 1/2RD to go with Larsson

    If Sekera returns to form and agrees to waive, then I’d consider trading him this summer for someone like Myers. If he won’t waive, how about something like Davidson for Petrovic? I haven’t studied the numbers, but likely the Oilers would have to add to that. Then Benning could be traded for a young scoring winger and the defense would look like this:

    Klefbom – Larsson
    Nurse – Petrovic / Russell
    Sekera – Dahlin

    Yes I know Dahlin shoots left, but I’ve noticed that he likes to shoot from the right side, and often migrates to that side when carrting the puck on an end-to-end rush, so if partnered with a steady veteran against weaker comp this could work well.

  192. VOR says:

    Thinking About the Draft – 11 – The Giant in the Snow

    I have to say something – as my access to scouts has grown so has my confusion. I keep stumbling on new variables that I can’t even begin to figure out how to allow for in my algorithms. This story is about all the politics going on behind the scenes. But it is also about intangibles.

    People ask me about how I got access to all these sources. The simple answer is it all just happened organically. I just followed my nose.

    This story was first told to me by a former NHL GM and his wife, then by a current NHL coach, and finally by a team owner.

    I met the GM because he was once a legendary scout and close friends with more than one of my sources. But J.P. Parise is the one who got me in the door. I knew J.P. because one of my business clients hooked us up.

    The GM is question is old but still sharp as a tack. I am going to call him Harry. Harry and his wife Joan ply me with cookies from around the world and coffee that could melt a spoon. They are inveterate story tellers and terrible gossips.

    The NHL coach I first met at a coaching conference some years ago. At the time he was an assistant coach trying to figure out how to get to the next level. Professional development seemed like a good career move to him. Occasionally we meet, usually he is speaking, at events where I am looking for clients. I am going to call him Ted.

    The team owner I was introduced to at a business analytics conference. This was year’s ago. Long before he bought an NHL team, long before he had the money to buy an NHL team, long before anyone knew his name. Analytics was in its infancy and we bonded, nerd to nerd. The team owner I am going to call Luke.

    I am not close to any of these people. They are acquaintances but people tell me stuff. I have no idea why but I hate taking the bus or LRT or planes or trains, people, complete strangers sit down beside me and tell me their life stories. I have social phobias. This level of intimacy makes me crazy but somehow that never stops anyone.

    So this the story my four sources told. Well it is a merged version.

    “It was snowing like mad. That would have been the winter of 1978. I was trying to get to the hospital. It was a blizzard. Finally I parked the car and started walking. Jesus it was cold, and I couldn’t see my hand in front of face” Harry says, pausing to take another bite of shortbread sugar cookie. Until this moment I had no idea such a cookie even existed.

    “It took me half an hour to go six blocks. I am within two blocks of the hospital when out of the snow comes this giant, running like the devil is chasing him, and bowls me over. I am sitting on my ass in the snow when he stops, turns back, reaches out a massive hand and lifts me back on my feet. ‘I am so sorry, I’m late,” he says and off he goes running into the storm.

    “I get up and continue towards the hospital.”

    This is where Joan jumps in.

    “Our granddaughter Sally is in the hospital. She was four then. She’d had cancer, they thought she was in remission, but after all the chemo and radiation she just sort of never recovered. They called it failure to thrive. She didn’t laugh, she didn’t talk, she barely moved, she just lay there in bed. We were taking turns sitting with her. The doctors thought she was getting weaker and weaker and the end was near.”

    “I get to the Children’s ward and Marcy, our daughter meets me at the door, she is in tears, just bawling her head off. I of course assume the worst,” Harry says. “Then she raises her arm and points. There is Sally riding on the shoulders of a giant. She is laughing and giggling like mad.

    “Up close I realize the giant is himself just a kid. The nursing staff told us he had come two and a half miles through that blizzard. Just to volunteer to play with sick kids.”

    And so why does this story, heart warming as it is, matter? Well scroll forward a number of years. Harry is scouting in the OHL. The giant from the hospital has grown bigger, stronger, and is ripping the OHL apart. He isn’t so much a hockey player as a one trick pony but what a trick. He is the top goal scorer in junior hockey. He should be a slam dunk first round NHL draft pick.

    There is just one massive problem. He scores most of those goals on the power play. Mostly by standing in the crease or close by. His teammates on that power play are arguably the greatest power play in the history of junior hockey. They were that before he ever joined them. The giant doesn’t play on his teams first line but he has the great good fortune to play on a second line with a young man who is tracking to be a Hall of Fame player in the NHL – a real stud. The giant is being zoomed, probably as much or more than any player in the history of junior hockey.

    Harry likes to talk to prospects, get to know them. He has a series of questions he likes to ask the prospects. One of which is, “what do you plan to do when your hockey career is over.” The giant looks down at him and says, with real passion, “I want to start a charity to help poor and sick kids.” That is when Harry realizes it is the kid from the hospital.

    Coming up Part Two.

  193. HT Joe says:

    Munny: HT Joe

    Thanks… that makes more sense.

  194. godot10 says:

    Pescador: I’m with you, Chiarelli has fucked it up.
    No question,
    McDavid is 21,
    If it’s all over now, not salvageable,
    Point me to the nearest bridge & I’ll push you off

    The opposite of love is not hate. It is apathy. It would be far worse for Katz if fans, even Tier 2+ fans became apathetic. Whining and complaining is good, not bad. The only joy we get out of the losing is the ability to whine and complain about (and predict) it.

  195. ArmchairGM says:

    OriginalPouzar: In particular Osterle who, from accounts, had little interest in re-signing in Edmonton due to the leftorium – fair enough.

    Oesterle played his entire professional career (4 years IIRC) on the right side. The Leftorium likely meant nothing to him.

  196. godot10 says:

    Pescador: Except for Jultz his confidence was gone and he was unwatchable at the end

    A mostly career AHL coach was able to fix him. McLellan is one of the highest paid NHL coaches in history couldn’t seem bothered to even try.

  197. JimmyV1965 says:

    VOR:
    Thinking About the Draft – 11 – The Giant in the Snow

    I have to say something – as my access to scouts has grown so has my confusion. I keep stumbling on new variables that I can’t even begin to figure out how to allow for in my algorithms. This story is about all the politics going on behind the scenes. But it is also about intangibles.

    People ask me about how I got access to all these sources. The simple answer is it all just happened organically. I just followed my nose.

    This story was first told to me by a former NHL GM and his wife, then by a current NHL coach, and finally by a team owner.

    I met the GM because he was once a legendary scout and close friends with more than one of my sources. But J.P. Parise is the one who got me in the door. I knew J.P. because one of my business clients hooked us up.

    The GM is question is old but still sharp as a tack. I am going to call him Harry. Harry and his wife Joan ply me with cookies from around the world and coffee that could melt a spoon. They are inveterate story tellers and terrible gossips.

    The NHL coach I first met at a coaching conference some years ago. At the time he was an assistant coach trying to figure out how to get to the next level. Professional development seemed like a good career move to him. Occasionally we meet, usually he is speaking, at events where I am looking for clients. I am going to call him Ted.

    The team owner I was introduced to at a business analytics conference. This was year’s ago. Long before he bought an NHL team, long before he had the money to buy an NHL team, long before anyone knew his name. Analytics was in its infancy and we bonded, nerd to nerd. The team owner I am going to call Luke.

    I am not close to any of these people. They are acquaintances but people tell me stuff. I have no idea why but I hate taking the bus or LRT or planes or trains, people, complete strangers sit down beside me and tell me their life stories. I have social phobias. This level of intimacy makes me crazy but somehow that never stops anyone.

    So this the story my four sources told. Well it is a merged version.

    “It was snowing like mad. That would have been the winter of 1978. I was trying to get to the hospital. It was a blizzard. Finally I parked the car and started walking. Jesus it was cold, and I couldn’t see my hand in front of face” Harry says, pausing to take another bite of shortbread sugar cookie. Until this moment I had no idea such a cookie even existed.

    “It took me half an hour to go six blocks. I am within two blocks of the hospital when out of the snow comes this giant, running like the devil is chasing him, and bowls me over. I am sitting on my ass in the snow when he stops, turns back, reaches out a massive hand and lifts me back on my feet. ‘I am so sorry, I’m late,” he says and off he goes running into the storm.

    “I get up and continue towards the hospital.”

    This is where Joan jumps in.

    “Our granddaughter Sally is in the hospital. She was four then. She’d had cancer, they thought she was in remission, but after all the chemo and radiation she just sort of never recovered. They called it failure to thrive. She didn’t laugh, she didn’t talk, she barely moved, she just lay there in bed. We were taking turns sitting with her. The doctors thought she was getting weaker and weaker and the end was near.”

    “I get to the Children’s ward and Marcy, our daughter meets me at the door, she is in tears, just bawling her head off. I of course assume the worst,” Harry says. “Then she raises her arm and points. There is Sally riding on the shoulders of a giant. She is laughing and giggling like mad.

    “Up close I realize the giant is himself just a kid. The nursing staff told us he had come two and a half miles through that blizzard. Just to volunteer to play with sick kids.”

    And so why does this story, heart warming as it is, matter? Well scroll forward a number of years. Harry is scouting in the OHL. The giant from the hospital has grown bigger, stronger, and is ripping the OHL apart. He isn’t so much a hockey player as a one trick pony but what a trick. He is the top goal scorer in junior hockey. He should be a slam dunk first round NHL draft pick.

    There is just one massive problem. He scores most of those goals on the power play. Mostly by standing in the crease or close by. His teammates on that power play are arguably the greatest power play in the history of junior hockey. They were that before he ever joined them. The giant doesn’t play on his teams first line but he has the great good fortune to play on a second line with a young man who is tracking to be a Hall of Fame player in the NHL – a real stud. The giant is being zoomed, probably as much or more than any player in the history of junior hockey.

    Harry likes to talk to prospects, get to know them. He has a series of questions he likes to ask the prospects. One of which is, “what do you plan to do when your hockey career is over.” The giant looks down at him and says, with real passion, “I want to start a charity to help poor and sick kids.” That is when Harry realizes it is the kid from the hospital.

    Coming up Part Two.

    You gotta finish the story before the game starts VOR.

  198. ArmchairGM says:

    godot10: My bad.

    They still could have offered him a contract.They should have offered him a contract.They paid a worse player twice as much.

    “My bad” means the same thing as “I’m sorry” – unless you’re at a funeral.

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