G54 2017-18: Oilers at Sharks

It was exactly what one might expect from this year’s Oilers: Frustrating, mostly pointless, and featuring some absolute filth from the Anaheim Ducks. This team isn’t going to be together that much longer, but this could be a painful march to the end of the season, even for Oilers fans. As we have discussed previously, these games don’t matter for the playoff chase (Edmonton is doomed)  but sure as hell matter to Peter Chiarelli and Todd McLellan. This could get ugly in a quick hurry.

THE ATHLETIC!

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DEADMAN’S CURVE, YEAR OVER YEAR

  • February 2016: 2-2-0, goal differential -2 (4 points)
  • February 2017: 1-3-0, goal differential -7 (2 points)
  • February 2018: 1-2-1, goal differential -1 (3 points)
  • February 9, 2016: New Jersey 2, Edmonton 1 (Source)
  • February 14, 2017: Edmonton 5, Arizona 2 (Source)

Compared to the last two seasons, this is about normal. I still say Peter Chiarelli is probably not comfortable with these losses, reaching 82 points makes his exit meeting with Bob Nicholson and Daryl Katz at least a little easier. I think there are signs (back checking, mostly) this team is giving up, acknowledgement of another failed season.

AFTER 53, YEAR OVER YEAR

  • Oilers 15-16: 21-27-5, goal differential -25 (47 points)
  • Oilers 16-17: 28-17-8, goal differential +16 (64 points)
  • Oilers 17-18: 23-26-4, goal differential -24 (50 points)
  • February 7, 2016: NYI 8, Edmonton 1 (Source)
  • February 3, 2017: Carolina 2, Edmonton 1 (Source)

I can’t remember the moment when the 2015-16 season began marching in lock step with this season (or vice versa) but man it has stuck like glue. What a mess. There are 29 games left by my count, 10 wins in those games means massive changes in my opinion. If the team can get to 15 wins, and 82 points? Story to tell, although it is also true that may not be enough.

WHAT TO EXPECT FROM FEBRUARY

  • At home to: Colorado, Tampa Bay (Expected 0-1-1) (Actual 1-0-1)
  • On the road to: Los AngelesAnaheim, San Jose (Expected 1-1-1) (Actual 0-2-0)
  • At home to: Florida (Expected 1-0-0) (Actual 0-0-0)
  • On the road to: Vegas, Arizona, Colorado (Expected 2-1-0) (Actual 0-0-0)
  • At home to: Boston, Colorado (Expected 1-1-0) (Actual 0-0-0)
  • On the road to: Los Angeles, Anaheim, San Jose (Expected 0-2-1) (Actual 0-0-0)
  • Overall expected result: 5-6-3, 13 points in 14 games
  • Current results: 1-2-1, three points in four games

Nuge and Larsson are out but it’s pretty clear the current Oilers don’t have the horsepower. I thought Anton Slepyshev had some jump last night, there’s still time for him to emerge as a useful player. This is a good time for auditions, far better than the first nine games of the year.

LOWETIDE TOP 30, 2009

It was a weird draft in 2009 and the rankings versus actual tell us true. I was strong on Hedman (he’s the only defenseman to rank No. 1 on one of my lists, although that probably changes this year), still believe he’s top drawer. Magnus was the Oilers pick, I had him top 10.

  1. [2] D Victor Hedman: Franchise. Top end talent.
  2. [1] C John Tavares: Tremendous goal-scorer.
  3. [4] C Evander Kane: Strong, skilled and gifted.
  4. [3] C Matt DuChene: Elite level speed and skill.
  5. [5] C Braydon Schenn: Skill set transfers perfectly.
  6. [22] C Jordan Schroeder: Math loves him. Terrific skill.
  7. [8] R Scott Glennie: Wide range of skills with good results.
  8. [10] L Magnus Pääjärvi-Svensson: Speed kills.
  9. [14] D Dmitrti Kulikov: Fine resume, wide range of skills.
  10. [11] D Ryan Ellis: There’s just too much.
  11. [6] D Oliver Ekman-Larson: Strong resume, math is meh.
  12. [9] D Jared Cowen: Big, strong D with huge wingspan.
  13. [12] D Calvin De Haan: Complete resume.
  14. [13] R Zack Kassian: PF with an edge.
  15. [49] D Stefan Elliott: Nice range of skills.
  16. [25] C Jordan Caron: Why isn’t there more fuss?
  17. [21] D John Moore: Smooth skater with skill from the blue.
  18. [31] G Mikko Koskinen: .931SP is good in any league.
  19. [17] D David Rundblad: Smart player, good shot.
  20. [23] D Tim Erixon: Has brains, skill and pedigree.
  21. [7] C Nazem Kadri: A somewhat risky pick (London calling).
  22. [18] C Louis LeBlanc: Expert puck handler.
  23. [30] D Simon Despres: An actual defenseman.
  24. [77] G Matt Hackett: SP says he’s a player.
  25. [19] C Chris Kreider: Late buzz, high schoolers tough to project.
  26. [29] R Carter Ashton: Big PF prospect.
  27. [45] R Jeremy Morin: He can score goals, could be a steal.
  28. [33] C Ryan O’Reilly: An impressive list of skills.
  29. [42] D Charles-Olivier Roussel: Smart player with some skill.
  30. [20] C Jacob Josefson: Two-way center with playmaking skills.

The market was correct (or more correct than me) about Jordan Schroeder, I thought he was terrific value where he was chosen. I faded Kadri way too much, but did get Ryan O’Reilly inside the first round.

DEFENSE, LAST NIGHT

  • Klefbom-Russell went 15-8 together in 11:22, 1-0 GF. I honestly had no idea they were out there at the same time that much, but did notice Klefbom-Benning (10-2 in 5:48). I like that duo despite the chaos. Russell had an eventful night good and bad, too high event for a defensive defender. I think Klefbom is getting back to where he can be, making these blasted trade rumors truly noxious.
  • Nurse-Davidson went 14-12 together in 11:33, I like both players and am pleased Davidson is getting an extended time to impress. He battled a filthy group of forwards despite not being a giant. Nurse had an easier time, he is approaching giant status (strong, strong man), but did go walkabout for no reason a couple of times.
  • Benning-Klefbom went 10-2 together in 5:48. Mobile and they can pass, even on a night (on a road trip) that isn’t going to rhyme. Oilers should be hiring more of these player types. Benning isn’t going to win over all fans, but for me he brings exactly what this team needs badly (speed, passing, some offense) from the blue.
  • Cam Talbot stopped 31 of 34, .912. I thought he played well.
  • NaturalStatTrick and NHL.com.

FORWARDS, LAST NIGHT

  • Pakarinen-Letestu-Slepyshev went 12-5 together, 1-0 GF. The goal was all Slepyshev, who remains a solid option for exactly what this team needs. You hope this is the spark that inspires the coach to try him in a more prominent role, but we also know the odds don’t favor this outcome. The other two men played well enough to stay in the lineup.
  • Maroon-McDavid-Puljujarvi went 16-15 together, 1-2 GF. I love the idea of putting the Finn with 97, but the youngster struggled last night. Stay the course, Mr. McLellan. Maroon had a good game compared to his recent past, benefiting from McDavid’s presence on his line. Went 12-12 and 1-2GF against the Kesler line. Kesler was all over 97 and 98, absolute criminal. All three men had defensive miscues and the backchecking wasn’t on full blast to my eye.
  • Lucic-Draisaitl-Caggiula went 12-8 (Lucic) and 7-4 (Caggiula). Leon’s good chance came on the 5×4 (he hammered that shot) but the 5×5 work was not successful. Went 12-10, 0-1 against the Getzlaf line. Leon is good enough to grab a game by the throat, wish he did it more often. Not complaining mind you, love the player.
  • Khaira-Strome-Kassian went 6-13 together, there were some promising sorties but the trio kept turning the puck over. Strome seems to be more involved these days, won some physical battles and came out with the puck. Went 8-8 with the Henrique line. Kassian was a giveaway machine.

HEY! THAT’S GREAT!

Always good when smart NHL teams are scouting your best defenseman, I would recommend the owner stepping in at this point. Look, Oscar Klefbom isn’t Bobby Orr but he’s a tremendous young talent with a ridiculous contract. Trading Klefbom continues a costly trend by this organization. Sending away your best silver and gold, the cream of the good young talent, is a bad idea. That’s why teams rarely do it.

Here’s some home truth. Even with the Reinhart trade, the Hall trade, the Eberle deal, there’s enough pure talent for the Edmonton Oilers to compete for the Stanley Cup with just a few astute moves. There are overpays to come, players who will need to be offloaded with a sweetener due to a bad contract. Trading Klefbom for what will likely be a lesser return or futures (who are they dangling? Sergachev? Point?) makes no sense. This is where this blog’s author tells you “I’m inclined to believe the Oilers will keep their powder dry” but in my opinion there may be some pressure on management to improve now. Oilers are in a dangerous spot. Who is going to tell the owner he needs to stop the bleeding? Gretzky? Does that moment in time mark the exact point when the FOG regime begins?

As a hockey team, the Edmonton Oilers are a frustrating bunch who treat young talent as an endlessly renewable resource. As a soap opera, they’re the best game in town. Fans would like to see competence and progress. I could quote you chapter and verse about rainy winter days in Los Angeles when things looked dire for this organization, but this one might be the worst.

Daryl Katz has his answer to this question: What would happen if the Oilers win the McDavid lottery and hire veteran management and coaching? Now he must figure out what to do when the answer is “not much in the standings.” I think we’re two months from FOG. Pretty sure.

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458 Responses to "G54 2017-18: Oilers at Sharks"

« Older Comments
  1. OriginalPouzar says:

    Crazy Pedestrian: lol… you can tell OPs give-a-shit-if-they-win-or-lose-o-meter is at an all time low.

    Oh, its been at the lowest level for 2 months now when it was realistically over.

    I”m still going to watch every game and look forward to every game but I watch with little emotion – I certainty don’t let losses upset my mood. I have no control (I’ve learned) and it is what it is.

    They suck, clearly, but I still look for (and see) all the silver linings – even if I have to squint.

  2. Zelepukin says:

    who:
    There is no denying Klefboms physical tools but I’ve always wondered about his hockey brain. Taking an extra 5 seconds to touch the puck after he high sticked it on a powerplay kind of makes me wonder more.
    Thank God they lost. We are moving up the draft ladder.

    Agreed. I held onto hope as long as I could, which would have had to be 3-0 on this Cali trip. Now it’s absolutely all about draft position and getting rid of players. Letestu, Maroon, maybe Benning. Russell is wishful thinking but you never know.

  3. who says:

    Zelepukin:
    That was amazing Russell.

    Russell was defending an odd man rush caused by another Lucic blind turnover in the offensive zone. Russell’s man was standing at the far post. What did you want him to do there?

  4. OmJo says:

    OriginalPouzar:
    Yamamoto adds a goal.

    1G and 4A with 7 minutes to go.

    At least we have something to look forward to with this team.

  5. LMHF#1 says:

    who: Russell was defending an odd man rush caused by another Lucic blind turnover in the offensive zone. Russell’s man was standing at the far post. What did you want him to do there?

    He’s defending no one and doing nothing there.

    I would’ve got benched in Bantam for making that play…except I already would have been on the bench for the play he made that allowed the previous goal.

  6. prefonmich says:

    LMHF#1,

    He is always lauded as a defensive defender but he just backs in and sometimes blocks the shot but often just gets out of the way completely. I don’t know how many games he has singlehandedly lost us in the last 5 minute this year. Infuriatjng. Only for 3 more untradeable years thoigh.

  7. Zelepukin says:

    OriginalPouzar: Oh, its been at the lowest level for 2 months now when it was realistically over.

    I”m still going to watch every game and look forward to every game but I watch with little emotion – I certainty don’t let losses upset my mood. I have no control (I’ve learned) and it is what it is.

    They suck, clearly, but I still look for (and see) all the silver linings – even if I have to squint.

    My silver lining is Drai moving into top 30, McD Art Ross. It won’t be easy but possible if you put them together again.

  8. Crazy Pedestrian says:

    who:
    There is no denying Klefboms physical tools but I’ve always wondered about his hockey brain. Taking an extra 5 seconds to touch the puck after he high sticked it on a powerplay kind of makes me wonder more.
    Thank God they lost. We are moving up the draft ladder.

    And constellation prize: knocks the fLames down a bit

  9. rickithebear says:

    Klefbom and Nurse responsible for 4 ga by not being in HD area.

  10. prefonmich says:

    OriginalPouzar,

    I really dont know how you do that. I was out with a friend tonight enjoying great conversation. Left the restaurant and turned on the game in the car just as SJ scored their 3rd goal. I thought perfect I didn’t sweat another loss. Got home and it was 3 3 so I got sucked in to watching the 3rd. What a waste of.my.time.and energy AGAIN.

  11. jzed says:

    Let Larson stay home and go through all those stages of grieving with his loved ones, no sense rushing back to this shit show. IR Klefbom so he can get 100 % before he skates again. Call up Gryba and Simpson. Tell Benning the last 20 games are about staying in the NHL. Give Davidson more ice, put him on power play, Aavitu also, more ice and some PP time. Sekera, if he’s not 100%, IR him too

    Put Poolparty on poweplay and give Sleppy same message as Benning. Whatever you do, don’t overplay Connor, last thing we should expect is for him to get injured trying to carry whole team on his back. Leon is at center, for rest of year. Then again, what the hell fo I know?? See you next year boys, I simply cannot drink this much and stay married.

  12. OriginalPouzar says:

    Zelepukin: My silver lining is Drai moving into top 30, McD Art Ross. It won’t be easy but possible if you put them together again.

    Drai is proving he can center a line.

    He will still play lots of 1RW this year and next, I’m sure – that’s not a function of his inability to drive his own line or a long term plan but a stop-gab while our prospect wingers develop (or until top 6 wingers are otherwise acquired).

    Two more primary ES points as a center tonight.

    He’s got excellent numbers away from McDavid and sensation even strength numbers overall.

  13. JD_Wry says:

    Crazy Pedestrian: And constellation prize:

    A big dipper to that comment.

  14. godot10 says:

    who: Russell was defending an odd man rush caused by another Lucic blind turnover in the offensive zone. Russell’s man was standing at the far post. What did you want him to do there?

    Perhaps try checking the forward with the puck cruising through the heart of the homeplate area with a clear path to net .

  15. LMHF#1 says:

    prefonmich,

    It’s a lot. He of all players holds the team back if not most then close to it. That’s not his fault – it’s the Coach’s.

    I was so relieved when they were finally rid of Andrew “GA” Ference. Instead of taking advantage of that they replaced him with Kris “Also in Photo” Russell.

    Old school coaches stink because they love the Ferences and Russells of the game.

  16. JD_Wry says:

    prefonmich: AGAIN

    Imagine if you had watched it from start to finish…

  17. StixMalone says:

    Collapsed after a great comeback. Too many brain farts by too many players. Oh well goal now is to keep Calgary out of the playoffs. That would make the season for me

  18. OriginalPouzar says:

    prefonmich:
    OriginalPouzar,

    I really dont know how you do that. I was out with a friend tonight enjoying great conversation. Left the restaurant and turned on the game in the car just as SJ scored their 3rd goal. I thought perfect I didn’t sweat another loss. Got home and it was 3 3 so I got sucked in to watching the 3rd. What a waste of.my.time.and energy AGAIN.

    I watched every minute of the game and it was worth it. Yup, various parts of the first 30 minutes were very boring and painful but I got to see a huge comeback and the short lived lead. I got to see Kass’ breakaway prowess. I got to see Drai further prove he is approaching being a top 10 center in this league. I got to see Strome have another strong game on the PK and come within an inch of giving the team a 5-4 lead on the PP.

    I also got to see Khaira have a step back game, the defensive group as a whole struggle immensely, the PP not look good at times and also look dangerous at other times, Lucic make 12 terrible passes, etc.

    All of that is information that I use to evaluate and formulate opinions and analysis.

    Looking forward to Monday – more stories to be told – good and bad I’m sure.

  19. who says:

    LMHF#1: He’s defending no one and doing nothing there.

    I would’ve got benched in Bantam for making that play…except I already would have been on the bench for the play he made that allowed the previous goal.

    Did you play past Bantam? If he steps up on the shooter its a back door tap in.
    Also the winning goal was on Maroon. He just skated away from his check in the corner and left him to walk out of the corner. Go back and watch the tape.
    Don’t get me wrong. Russell hasn’t been good lately. But not every goal is his fault just because he is on the ice.

  20. rickithebear says:

    prefonmich:
    LMHF#1,

    He is always lauded as a defensive defender but he just backs in and sometimes blocks the shot but often just gets out of the way completely. I don’t know how many games he has singlehandedly lost us in the last 5 minute this year. Infuriatjng. Only for 3 more untradeable years thoigh.

    If we have 2 dmen in the HD area. Lucic is still matched with his forward.
    Klefbom would be their for Ryan and Russel could defend any rebound.
    But alas 3 opp fwds in our HD area and our cover is Russell and lucic.

    What was missing.one of our dmen not understanding that you do not press the blue when your forwards have not press the NZ.
    Compress and cover.
    Allow the shots below league average success rate.

  21. rickithebear says:

    The GWG was 2nd phase 100% shot off a forced 0 % shot.

  22. texmex says:

    I hope Chia trades mcdavid in the offseason so I can be done with this team.

    Been a die hard for 35 years. I’m broken

  23. Crazy Pedestrian says:

    rickithebear:
    Klefbom and Nurse responsible for 4 ga by not being in HD area.

    Honestly, I know it’s not great to wish Ill will on any player, but we kinda need nurse to flub up this season a little more for the sake of lowering his next contract price… we all know he’s Bonafide at this point, but if we can somehow get him locked up for 7 years at $4-$4.5M AAV, it would make things a little easier going forward…

    But of course, as long as General disappointment is at the helm, chances are higher that he gets traded than getting him signed for a value deal…

    le sigh… 😓

  24. JD_Wry says:

    texmex:
    I hope the trade mcdavid in the offseason so I can be done with this team.

    As Bob would say, “Thank you caller.”

  25. godot10 says:

    The 2017-2018 Oilers:

    #DementorvilleRevisited.

  26. Zelepukin says:

    OriginalPouzar: Drai is proving he can center a line.

    He will still play lots of 1RW this year and next, I’m sure – that’s not a function of his inability to drive his own line or a long term plan but a stop-gab while our prospect wingers develop (or until top 6 wingers are otherwise acquired).

    Two more primary ES points as a center tonight.

    He’s got excellent numbers away from McDavid and sensation even strength numbers overall.

    Totally agree and I think Drai won’t slow down at all on the 2nd line. It’s more about giving McD someone decent to play with.

  27. JD_Wry says:

    godot10: #DementorvilleRevisited.

    Wasted away again…

  28. LMHF#1 says:

    who: Did you play past Bantam?If he steps up on the shooter its a back door tap in.
    Also the winning goal was on Maroon. He just skated away from his check in the corner and left him to walk out of the corner. Go back and watch the tape.
    Don’t get me wrong. Russell hasn’t been good lately. But not every goal is his fault just because he is on the ice.

    The likelihood we’re not going to agree on this is close to 100%. I’d say watch it again but wouldn’t want to subject you to more Oilers hockey on a Saturday. Too many other great things to do.

    The 5-4 goal Russell could easily have tied up the man. He knew it too. The previous goal he turned a routine board play into a scoring chance against. Those are both so basic and inexcusable.

    This is so damn frustrating to watch. I knew it would happen but couldn’t turn away.

  29. rickithebear says:

    OriginalPouzar: Drai is proving he can center a line.

    He will still play lots of 1RW this year and next, I’m sure – that’s not a function of his inability to drive his own line or a long term plan but a stop-gab while our prospect wingers develop (or until top 6 wingers are otherwise acquired).

    Two more primary ES points as a center tonight.

    He’s got excellent numbers away from McDavid and sensation even strength numbers overall.

    Trade Klefbom and Nurse
    For forward depth.

    I would be happy with
    XXX – Larsson (1st comp HD)
    Sekera (2nd comp HD) – Russell (Elite 0% corsi D)
    Davidson ( 3rd comp HD) – Auvitu (3rd comp HD)
    Benning

  30. Lowetide says:

    Tough night I understand, but please be good to each other. Thanks.

  31. prefonmich says:

    OriginalPouzar,

    Your positive attitude is impressive. Must be all the 3am workouts!.good for.you.

  32. who says:

    LMHF#1: The likelihood we’re not going to agree on this is close to 100%. I’d say watch it again but wouldn’t want to subject you to more Oilers hockey on a Saturday. Too many other great things to do.

    The 5-4 goal Russell could easily have tied up the man. He knew it too. The previous goal he turned a routine board play into a scoring chance against. Those are both so basic and inexcusable.

    This is so damn frustrating to watch. I knew it would happen but couldn’t turn away.

    Fair enough.
    My first sentence was uncalled for. There just seem to be a few automatic whipping boys on this blog and sometimes I just feel the need to stick up for them.

  33. StixMalone says:

    Best thing Lucic can do this summer is hire a skills coach. His stick prowess is inadequate. He can afford to find a good coach ….

  34. LMHF#1 says:

    who: Fair enough.My first sentence was uncalled for. There just seem to be a fewautomatic whipping boys on this blog and sometimes I just feel the need to stick up for them.

    No worries, didn’t mind it at all. We’re all into this otherwise we wouldn’t be here.

    It’s just sad…really thought we’d be the ones getting to enjoy a season at the top for a change.

  35. digger50 says:

    I just reviewed the blog. Also watched the game.

    No comment on McDavid?

    To my eye he was obviously playing hurt. Must have taken some serious bruising from the Ducks which I find not acceptable.

  36. digger50 says:

    Klefbom is a good player

    But right now he is not a good player. He doesn’t need traded, he needs fixed. If he’s hurt he needs rested. I don’t want morectalent walking out of here. I want a coaching staff that can help these you g players reach thier potential.

    And if I’m wrong and it’s simply a player not trying then of course move them.

  37. HALFWALL says:

    Game Notes:
    – SAP was rockin when it was 3-0. Dead silent at 4-3 Oil.
    – Came back to life during Oilers TWO consecutive PP where everyone stood around, allowing the Sharks to get into all the passing lanes, didn’t get in front of the net, didn’t shoot and making low percentage passes
    – Russel and Benning routinely seemed to be getting run over and/or we’re under pressure and in a panic. OV2 smallish too but seems noticeably quicker than 4 or 83. Much more comforting when Klef, Nurse or Davy are out there. Miss healthy Sekera and Lars big time.
    – Drai – best player on the ice. Sharks we’re bouncing off him as he held the puck looking to make plays which his linemates bleed away. Somehow scored the 3-3 goal despite Cammy and Looch whiffs at the puck.
    – McD – Magnificent to watch him skate live. Alas, no one seems to be able to catch him in full stride. Created a couple breath taking chances but couldn’t convert. Ran into his own player at Mach 2 during the inept 3rd period powerplay to the delight of the SAP crowd.
    – Looch:. Routinely passes the puck to the other team in both zones – a corsi black hole. Needs to simplify his game:. Hit, shoot, stand in front of goalie, punch faces.
    – Kassian – Electric. Huge boos from the galled SAP crowd who haven’t forgotten his riding roughshod over the Sharks in the playoffs last year.

    Looking at the boxscore, one would think this was an exciting rollercoaster of a game but it was UGLY. Broken plays, defensive breakdowns and inept powerplay on both sides. 3-4 icings in a row at one point. Oilers seemed particularly disorganized in all 3 zones. The Sharks, though less talented are much more cohesive. Very efficient breakouts and zone entries.

    I’m not sure where the team goes from here…

  38. Slappywaggle says:

    rickithebear: Trade Klefbom and Nurse
    For forward depth.

    I would be happy with
    XXX – Larsson (1st comp HD)
    Sekera (2nd comp HD) – Russell (Elite 0% corsi D)
    Davidson ( 3rd comp HD) – Auvitu (3rd comp HD)
    Benning

    Disaster written all over it. Since we’re stuck with him we need to shove Russell as far down the lineup as possible. We buried Fayne. We can bury Russell. What exactly do you think you’ll do trading 2 of your best 3 dmen in Klef/Nurse? They’re both better then Russell. The only thing Russell does is block shots and that’s because he’s the cause of all problems in the defensive zone. How many times was he directly responsible for the puck remaining in the Oilers zone tonight? Way more than Klef or Nurse. I don’t care what anyone says, he is hands down the worst defenisve defenseman we have on this team, and considering he’s a defensive defenseman that says something.

  39. Extend Russell says:

    Oh Moe
    You see that team last night ?
    They sucked
    They were the suckiest bunch of sucks that ever sucked

    Also

    I see plenty of hate for the defense tonight

    Goaltending has literally sunk this team this year
    From Talbot to LB to Tony Montoya
    “Say hello to my horrible save percentage” end scene.

    One more

    It’s was the best of days it was the blurst of days ?!
    Damn you infernal monkeys !!

    Only explanation for this season ?
    Someone is screwing around at CERN again and they don’t like the Oilers..
    That’s just imo though
    Only plausible explanation

  40. Extend Russell says:

    Slappywaggle: Disaster written all over it. Since we’re stuck with him we need to shove Russell as far down the lineup as possible. We buried Fayne. We can bury Russell. What exactly do you think you’ll do trading 2 of your best 3 dmen in Klef/Nurse? They’re both better then Russell. The only thing Russell does is block shots and that’s because he’s the cause of all problems in the defensive zone. How many times was he directly responsible for the puck remaining in the Oilers zone tonight? Way more than Klef or Nurse. I don’t care what anyone says, he is hands down the worst defenisve defenseman we have on this team, and considering he’s a defensive defenseman that says something.

    Hi
    Klefbom is -13 this year
    Russel ? -1
    Before you make statements about things you obviously know little about
    Go get some stats to back it up
    Russel had a poor night
    Klefbom has had a very poor year
    Still wouldn’t trade him though
    He just so sexy

  41. OriginalPouzar says:

    prefonmich:
    OriginalPouzar,

    Your positive attitude is impressive. Must be all the 3am workouts!.good for.you.

    I put enough mental resources in to this team that I can’t dwell on the negative (re-hash the misakes of the GM on a daily basis). I truly do see lots of positives on a nightly basis – don’t get me wrong, I see all the negatives and the overall “work of the GM” but I’m going to focus on the former.

  42. Extend Russell says:

    OriginalPouzar: I put enough mental resources in to this team that I can’t dwell on the negative (re-hash the misakes of the GM on a daily basis).I truly do see lots of positives on a nightly basis – don’t get me wrong, I see all the negatives and the overall “work of the GM” but I’m going to focus on the former.

    It’s a good team having a bad year .
    It happens
    Still plenty of great nights I enjoyed this year.
    I hope everyone has had a good long look at this team minus Larsson and Rnh
    2 huge holes that are struggling to get filled

  43. JimmyV1965 says:

    The first three goals should have been stopped. Our dmen are truly awful at getting the puck up the ice, but it seems like every miscue ends up in the net. Yes, I’m being overly generous here for our dmen, but 10 games with the first shot in the net. Are you frickin kidding me.

  44. OriginalPouzar says:

    JimmyV1965:
    The first three goals should have been stopped. Our dmen are truly awful at getting the puck up the ice, but it seems like every miscue ends up in the net. Yes, I’m being overly generous here for our dmen, but 10 games with the first shot in the net. Are you frickin kidding me.

    Its actually surprising that there are two teams that have given up a goal on the first shot 7 times.

    I would have thought it would be normal to be around 2 at this stage of the year.

  45. hags9k says:

    I just watched the game this morning. They have finally folded the tents.

    Lucic should be absolutely embarrassed of that contract and his performance, especially in Anaheim when those two fucks run McDavid all night. Some leader. If you can’t play well, you could at least fight.

    My list for this team is to find two new goalies, and move out Russell.

    They will trade Nuge and Klef and re-sign Maroon to a 5 x 5.

    Hunter should start a poll, # of days to the McDavid trade request.

  46. hags9k says:

    In other news Dubnyk had a shutout.

  47. Dustylegnd says:

    Crazy Pedestrian: Honestly, I know it’s not great to wish Ill will on any player, but we kinda need nurse to flub up this season a little more for the sake of lowering his next contract price… we all know he’s Bonafide at this point, but if we can somehow get him locked up for 7 years at $4-$4.5M AAV, it would make things a little easier going forward…

    But of course, as long as General disappointment is at the helm, chances are higher that he gets traded than getting him signed for a value deal…

    le sigh…

    Yes if this season had happened last year, we would be paying Drai 6.5 instead of 8.5……on the plus side, we realistically shouldn’t worry about Nurse needing to be paid much above 4 and for sure we should not be worried about a Talbot overpay…..but who knows what incompetence lurks in the head of Chia

  48. Dustylegnd says:

    OriginalPouzar: Drai is proving he can center a line.

    He will still play lots of 1RW this year and next, I’m sure – that’s not a function of his inability to drive his own line or a long term plan but a stop-gab while our prospect wingers develop (or until top 6 wingers are otherwise acquired).

    Two more primary ES points as a center tonight.

    He’s got excellent numbers away from McDavid and sensation even strength numbers overall.

    for 8.5/year this should be a foregone conclusion

  49. who says:

    Drai was the Oilers dominant player in the playoffs last year centering a line with Lucic and Slepeshev. I find it amazing that it took the coach 50 plus games to go back to that combo this year. And then he breaks them up after 1 period. Mystifying.
    Everyone wants to see Nuge on the wing with Macdavid but maybe we need to have a look at Macdavid on the wing with Nuge when he gets back. Macdavid has not looked very engaged in his own end at times this year and last night he was brutal. People will hate me for saying this but Matthews is a better center in his own zone.
    On the other hand I think Macdavid needs to learn how to play in his own end and he won’t do that playing wing. Quite the conundrum.
    Bottom line is that the Oilers really have only 2 guys who consistently create offense. If you want more than 1 line scoring goals you have to split Macdavid and Drai.

  50. leadfarmer says:

    hags9k:
    In other news Dubnyk had a shutout.

    Speaking of goalies having a worse season than Talbot

  51. Gret99zky says:

    I have a feeling the McScowl™ photo will be a regular feature for the rest of this season.

  52. Spooky Lynx says:

    Owners should find a way to get contract renegotiations into the next CBA. Just my 2 cents.

  53. Woodguy v2.0 says:

    Georges: Yesterday, I looked at the 231 defensemen who’ve played at least 200 5v5 minutes this season. This sample is more homogeneous in ability than the population of defensemen who’ve seen ice time this season. (Coaches tend to limit minutes for new defensemen and defensemen they deem to have produced bad results.)

    Before yesterday’s games, the correlation between defenseman 5v5 CF% Rel and 5v5 GF% was 0.18. And the correlation between CF% Rel and GF% Rel was 0.16.

    This means a defenseman getting the job done on CF% Rel tells you nothing about his team’s ability to outscore its opponents with him on the ice.

    Here’s the correlation between defenseman CF% Rel and GF% Rel over the past few seasons:

    13-14 .43
    14-15 .37
    15-16 .20
    16-17 .36
    17-18 .18

    The correlation has been statistically significant but weak and inconsistent. A defenseman’s out-Corsi’ing his teammates doesn’t tell us much about his out-Goaling his teammates.

    Now, I think the people who see the CF Rel stat having value point to its year-to-year repeatability. Here’s the correlation for CF Rel from one season to the next:

    13-14 .49
    14-15 .47
    15-16 .42
    16-17 .51

    the correlation is again weak but this time it’s consistent. Knowing this season’s CF Rel will help predict next season’s CF Rel. with about a .5 regression to the mean, i.e., the best linear prediction for a defenseman with a CF Rel z-score of 1 in the current year will be a z-score of only 0.5 in the next season.

    But what we really care about is not whether current CF Rel predicts future CF Rel. We care whether current CF Rel predicts future GF Rel. If it does, we have something. If not, pffft. Here are the season to season correlations between this year’s CF Rel and next year’s GF Rel:

    13-14 .24
    14-15 .21
    15-16 .29
    16-17 .04

    It turns out that CF Rel is not a good predictor of future GF Rel. A lot of things change between seasons and teams try to eliminate big discrepancies in their on-ice performance. And, as I’ve noted above, CF Rel has a weak and inconsistent relationship with current season GF Rel. It’s just not that useful a stat; it produces a stick drawing, not a photograph.

    Now it should be noted that current GF Rel is useless for predicting future GF Rel:

    13-14 .11
    14-15 .01
    15-16 .04
    16-17 .05

    So we don’t know anything about whether a defenseman will outperform his peers on GF Rel in the future based on his outperforming them in the current season. Lots of things happen between seasons and, like any stat, the GF Rel we observe is part ability, part luck.

    But, if the question we care about is just who’s been getting the job done (instead of the much more difficult who’s more likely to get the job done in the future), then using CF Rel instead of GF Rel is a mistake.

    George,

    You’re expecting too much from a single metric.

    The fact that RelCor predicts future RelCor is the key.

    “This Dmen will usually have better results via shot metrics”

    Turning CF% into GF% is waaaaaaaaaaaaaaay out of Dman’s control though.

    A Dman on CAR is going to have a correlation of RelCF% to RelGF% that is weakish.

    A Dman on TBY is going to have a correlation of RelCF% to RelGF% that is stronger. (unless they play a lot with Callahan….)

    Forwards turn corsis into goals.

    Goalies save pucks.

    RelCor is a good Dman stat because you can predict that “this Dman will/will not tilt the ice your way”

    If the team has a good goalie and forwards that can turn corsis into goals, the results will be good.

    If the team has crap goaltending and ham handed forwards the results will not be good.

    Using RelCor allows us to identify Dmen who tilt the ice REGARDLESS of how their goalies go and their forwards can score.

    Expecting RelCF% to predict RelGF% for Dmen is silly when you think about it.

  54. OriginalPouzar says:

    Dustylegnd: Yes if this season had happened last year, we would be paying Drai 6.5 instead of 8.5……on the plus side, we realistically shouldn’t worry about Nurse needing to be paid much above 4 and for sure we should not be worried about a Talbot overpay…..but who knows what incompetence lurks in the head of Chia

    Drai is having a better season than last year.

    He’s PPG is higher than last year and he’s spent about half his time away from McDavid centering his own line and often with middling wingers. He’s also doing it almost entirely at evens with something like 5 power play points.

    Nope, he wouldn’t have had the playoff run but he’s having a second year to show that he is an elite player in the NHL.

    His ES P/60 is around 2.65 now and I think away from McDavid its likely approaching 2.20.

    Thank goodness we burned that first year of his ELC as, if he was in his last year of his ELC now, he might even get more money.

  55. OriginalPouzar says:

    who:
    Drai was the Oilers dominant player in the playoffs last year centering a line with Lucic and Slepeshev. I find it amazing that it took the coach 50 plus games to go back to that combo this year. And then he breaks them up after 1 period. Mystifying.
    Everyone wants to see Nuge on the wing with Macdavid but maybe we need to have a look at Macdavid on the wing with Nuge when he gets back. Macdavid has not looked very engaged in his own end at times this year and last night he was brutal. People will hate me for saying this but Matthews is a better center in his own zone.
    On the other hand I think Macdavid needs to learn how to play in his own end and he won’t do that playing wing. Quite the conundrum.
    Bottom line is that the Oilers really have only 2 guys who consistently create offense. If you want more than 1 line scoring goals you have to split Macdavid and Drai.

    The Drai line took off last night after Slepy was replaced by Cammy – Slepy had a tough first period fanning on shots/passes and turning the puck over.

    Tough to argue with the coaching decision that worked.

    Agree on McDavid – he is struggling in defensive zone coverage and in some of smaller areas of the game (faceoffs – completely disengaged and apathetic to my eye).

    Wonderful player that still has so much room to improve it is kind of mind-boggling how he is going to perform when he’s 24.

  56. godot10 says:

    Extend Russell: It’s a good team having a bad year .
    It happens
    Still plenty of great nights I enjoyed this year.
    I hope everyone has had a good long look at this team minus Larsson and Rnh
    2 huge holes that are struggling to get filled

    Winnipeg was missing Schieffle and Trouba. They didn’t bat an eye. Miseed Byfuglien earlier.

  57. godot10 says:

    Spooky Lynx:
    Owners should find a way to get contract renegotiations into the next CBA. Just my 2 cents.

    If there is an issue the NHLPA will fight to the death on, it is guaranteed contracts.

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