Cruel to be kind

Someday, when my work is all done, I’m going to take a month and spend some time in California. I’ll see Los Angeles and San Fransisco, and I’ll cheer for the Condors a night or two. I’m going to spend at least a week travelling the I-880 and find my own answer about the different NHL worlds experienced by the Seals and Sharks. Then I’m going to find Lodi and see if there’s a bar band in that town who can play the entire CCR catalogue. Maybe I’ll visit some Gram Parsons and Warren Zevon haunts, too. Make it six weeks. Yeah. Six weeks.

  • Leon Draisaitl: “It shows we do have character & don’t give up… But this year it seems like we find ways to lose those (close) games. It’s frustrating.”

THE ATHLETIC!

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UP AROUND THE BEND, YEAR OVER YEAR

  • February 2016: 2-3-0, goal differential -3 (4 points)
  • February 2017: 2-3-0, goal differential -4 (4 points)
  • February 2018: 1-3-1, goal differential -3 (3 points)

The Oilers showed a great deal of gumption last night, pushing back from a major deficit to tie the game. However, it all fell apart after that, this team is not good enough plus letting go the rope in real time. As we have discussed at length on this blog, a losing streak now likely means even more change across the organization. Dangerous times.

AFTER 54, YEAR OVER YEAR

  • Oilers 15-16: 21-28-5, goal differential -32 (47 points)
  • Oilers 16-17: 28-18-8, goal differential +15 (64 points)
  • Oilers 17-18: 23-27-4, goal differential -26 (50 points)

The season’s record was impossible to predict, in my opinion. Even those who suggested the team would fall back didn’t see this kind of cratering. You are your record and the Edmonton Oilers aren’t a very good hockey team. Who is responsible for that? We all have our opinions.

WHAT TO EXPECT FROM FEBRUARY

  • At home to: Colorado, Tampa Bay (Expected 0-1-1) (Actual 1-0-1)
  • On the road to: Los AngelesAnaheim, San Jose (Expected 1-1-1) (Actual 0-3-0)
  • At home to: Florida (Expected 1-0-0) (Actual 0-0-0)
  • On the road to: Vegas, Arizona, Colorado (Expected 2-1-0) (Actual 0-0-0)
  • At home to: Boston, Colorado (Expected 1-1-0) (Actual 0-0-0)
  • On the road to: Los Angeles, Anaheim, San Jose (Expected 0-2-1) (Actual 0-0-0)
  • Overall expected result: 5-6-3, 13 points in 14 games
  • Current results: 1-3-1, three points in five games

The Oilers are bleeding now, you can see a win against Florida and Arizona this week but any team that can pressure the defense is going to find success.

DEFENSE, LAST NIGHT

  • Auvitu-Benning were 19-10, 5-8 shots and 1-1 GF. I enjoyed the pairing immensely despite the chaos. Auvitu will drive a coach to distraction but there’s no denying his uniqueness. Please play him more, especially on the stale power play. Benning gets a lot of negative comments in the game day posts, but I like his game and his possession number for this season is 51.65. Auvitu? 54.80.
  • Nurse-Davidson were 14-16, 0-2 in GF. Some bad luck on one of the goals and Davidson was caught a couple of times, but I generally liked both players last night. Edmonton was trying to catch up and there was some riverboat gambler in each man. No complaints from here.
  • Klefbom-Russell had tough evenings, going 9-18 together, shots 3-8 and goals 1-2. The pairing had both disorganization and hesitation in their game in key moments and that’s all bad. I see Klefbom far better with the puck now, he’s coming around.
  • Al Montoya stopped 24 of 29, .828. I saw him bad.
  • NaturalStatTrick and NHL.com.

FORWARDS, LAST NIGHT

  • Lucic-Draisaitl-Cammalleri were fire, although Leon was the catalyst. When the big man is playing this way, Edmonton is formidable. It’s crazy he doesn’t play center all the time. Lucic had some spaz moments, including the GWG, but also did some good things. I’m absolutely impressed with Cammalleri, if the Oilers can’t get anything in trade for him, wonder if they’d bring him back on a one year deal? He is 1.94/60 scoring at 5×5.
  • Khaira-Strome-Slepyshev were 6-8 (Khaira) and 3-1 (Slepyshev). Not enough happens when these gents are on the ice, meaning each of these forwards needs someone to push the river for their line. If a coach is running this group as a skill line, then he’s probably also lighting candles.
  • Pakarinen-Letestu-Kassian went 9-10, but the line shuffling impacted this line in a big way. Kassian was fire, scoring two outrageous goals and willing the Oilers back into the game.
  • Maroon-McDavid-Puljujarvi were 9-17 on the night, McDavid was the only man in the group who had much going on (and he was not at his normal levels). There were a large number of fly-by’s from this line in the last 48 hours, the clearest indication I have that we’re all agreed about the season being lost.

LOWETIDE 2010 DRAFT LIST

In our continuing look at previous final draft rankings from this blog, we reach 2010. I’m still not punishing defensive defenders enough, but am giving pure skill (Tarasenko) more clean air. I’m enjoying this trek through the past, so much so I’ve kept the liner notes for you to read (all words below were published in my final draft 30 in 2010). There are incorrect notes here (Skinner is a fabulous skater!) but it’s fun to look back. I did this post with Pink Floyd titles for some reason, kept them, too. One final item: I have my 2018 Top 62 list ready to go. Would you like to see it tomorrow morning as part of the GDT, or Wednesday, the next day in which there isn’t a GDT or a post GDT? Let me know.

  1. [1] LW-C Taylor Hall: 6.01, 180. Stunning offensive talent, exceptional skater. Blasts by defensemen ala Glenn Anderson and has a similar kamikaze approach. Lightning in a bottle, scored 123 OHL goals before his draft day. Risk is that he has a Pavel Bure career (shortened due to injury). Money.
  2. [2] C Tyler Seguin: 6.01, 186. Slick, stylish centerman who reminds many of Steve Yzerman in style and substance. Lacks Hall’s explosiveness but is a fine skater and an outstanding playmaker. Possesses a wider range of skills than Hall, could be a Joe Sakic family franchise C. Name is pronounced SAY-GANN. Risk is that he emerges as something less than an All-Star calibre #1 C. Wish You Were Here.
  3. [13] D Brandon Gormley: 6.02, 187 A complete defenseman. Wonderful skater, he can close a gap in a heartbeat. Unlike many of this year’s blue, he really is a 2-way defender with enough skill to project as a contributor on offense while having enough acumen without the puck to be considered best in class for 2010. Smart, consistent player even at this age. Welcome to the Machine.
  4. [9] C Mikael Granlund: 5.10, 170. A smart center with terrific skills. “Hockey sense” is used in every scouting report as is “cerebral.” Slick playmaker, slippery around the net. Very quick release, not afraid of high traffic areas. The downside includes size (5.10 might be a stretch) and just average footspeed. Having said that, you know his other skills have to be elite level for Granlund to be ranked so high. The Gnome.
  5. [12] D Cam Fowler: 6.02, 190. Excellent puck mover. His scouting reports remind me of Paul Coffey every time I read them (sublime skater, effortless–as if he gets caught by a breeze; lacks physical element required to be an elite D) and I think he’ll have those defensive question marks deep into his career (as did Coffey). Fowler will be an acquired taste–some coaches won’t like him despite his skill set–so he’d be my bet as the first big name player from this draft to be traded by his team. Learning to Fly.
  6. [4] C Ryan Johansen: 6.02, 190. C with size who spiked late. Outstanding passer, he’s a big center who can make plays and as such has been compared to Joe Thornton. I don’t think he’ll be that good (Joe Thornton is a helluva hockey player) but he’s that big skill center everyone is always looking for and that will punch his ticket early in the draft. Makes good decisions, has awkward skating style but he’s not slow. A Saucerful of Secrets.
  7. [16] R Vladimir Tarasenko: 5.11, 200. Terrific offensive talent, best Russian in the draft. Has that Soviet ability to handle the puck in tight quarters and emerge unscathed, but he can also score goals from outside the traditional areas (using an excellent snapshot) because he’s so quick. He’d be higher if there was a transfer agreement and he still might get plucked in the top 5. Kirk Luedeke compares him to Marian Hossa. A Great Day for Freedom.
  8. [3] D Erik Gudbranson: 6.03, 200. Big, tough D plays a smart game. A very smart defenseman with good wheels and a monster shot, he has been compared to Chris Pronger by several scouts. Desjardins NHLE suggests he isn’t going to be the offensive player Pronger became, but there’s a lot to like. Lots of wingspan, he’s a good hitter, very physical player. Another Brick in The Wall.
  9. [5] R Nino Niederreiter: 6.02, 207. Best PF in this year’s draft, he’s a big winger with soft hands. Scouts will worry some over his skating, but he’s a physical player who will no doubt play in a team’s top 6 and those player-types don’t come along everyday. Desjardins suggests he may be a little shy offensively (meaning he’s more of a complementary player) but he’s going to be taken early. Pigs on the Wing (Part 1).
  10. [7] C Jeff Skinner: 5.10, 197. 50 goals in 64 OHL games tells us Skinner is a pure scorer. His calling card is finding open areas and using a quick release. His footspeed is a real concern and he might go lower than this ranking, but goal-scoring is a very valuable asset and Skinner is one of this draft’s best in that area. The first one-dimensional player on this list. The Gunner’s Dream.
  11. [6] R Brett Connolly: 6.02, 185. Tremendous across the board skills. He’s an excellent skater with good hands, and also displays a willingness to play in the tough areas of the offensive zone. Smart, quick, good shot, intelligent. The negatives are famous (hip flexor, indifferent play at U-18’s a couple of months ago) and despite reports that the hip problem won’t be a long term problem my guess is NHL teams in the top 10 will pass over him. Is Anybody Out There?
  12. [18] L Austin Watson: 6.03, 185. A wonderful prospect. Big man skates pretty well and has a powerforward’s skill set, he has a great work ethic at both ends of the ice. Watson is the least creative forward at the top of the draft, but could flourish with a playmaking center. If the Oilers do trade into the middle of round 1, this is a player they might be looking at in that area. Pigs on the Wing (Part 2).
  13. [25] C-L Quinton Howden: 6.02, 182. A quality 2-way player with enough offensive skill to be considered a top 6F option for an NHL team. He has a wide range of skills and although Howden doesn’t possess one outstanding area of expertise his offense is strong enough for him to be a safe pick. Any Color You Like.
  14. [29] C-L Emerson Etem: 6.00, 190. Speed burner with goal scoring skill. Strong skater who is tough to knock off the puck. Gets a lot of chances that come from turnovers caused by his footspeed and aggressiveness. He’s a shooter, will test the goalie from anywhere. He is not a safe pick compared to the others around him on this list. Quicksilver.
  15. [10] D Dylan McIlrath: 6.04, 212. Big, tough physical defender who can shut down the opposition. Oilers have drafted a big defensemen who can skate well (Matt Greene had this skill set) in the past and my guess is that they like this player a lot. I wouldn’t be surprised if he goes higher than 15, all it takes is one Mike Remmerde at a draft tableMother.
  16. [15] D Derek Forbort: 6.05, 198. A complete skill set. The USA U-18 club is a blue factory, with Forbort the latest model off the assembly line. Size (tall!), skill and power, the kid has it all. Has a massive wingspan and offensive acumen. The downside (and the thing that will keep him out of the top 10) is that he’s a raw player and will need time to develop. He’ll be in college this fall and take his time before turning pro. Obscured by Clouds.
  17. [19] C Nick Bjugstad: 6.04, 188. The third PF on this year’s list, he’s a huge kid with a “projectable” frame. Like Etem, this is a somewhat risky pick surrounded by safer selections so he could fall closer to the bottom of round one. Very good skater, has a very long reach and has been compared to Andrew Brunette. To give you an idea about what scouts are up against, Bjugstad was 5.10, 155 just 18 months ago. The Thin Ice.
  18. [8] C Alexander Burmistrov: 5.11, 160. Skilled Russian, brilliant with the puck. Great puck handler, excellent vision and he has a motor that won’t stop. Plays in the OHL (always an advantage for these Russian kids at the draft) and scored well in a tough league. His size is a major concern and there are whispers that his talent should garner better results (we heard that about Andrew Cogliano, as an example). UPDATE: A rumor out there has him possibly returning to his homeland this fall. Oy. Brain Damage.
  19. [11] G Jack Campbell: 6.03, 185. Lanky goaltender is as famous in his country as Jordan Eberle is in this one–among hockey fans, anyway. Acrobatic goalie who plays angles well, has been compared to Ryan Miller. Handles the puck responsibly. Comfortably Numb.
  20. [26] C Evgeny Kuznetsov: 6.00, 174. Another skilled Russian, and another Traktor boy. Redline has him coming to the OHL next season so that moves him up on my final list. A real talent with a real temper, he might take awhile to mature. Shine on you Crazy Diamond.
  21. [31] C Tyler Pitlick: 6.02, 194. Already developing as a 2-way player and a safe pick at this point in the draft. He’s an up and down grinding type with skill and scouts see him as a throwback winger when he reaches the show. Dogs.
  22. [14] C Jaden Schwarz: 5.10, 193. Another USHL kid (that league is now the 4th major in terms of junior hockey) and another forward with a nice range of skills. A great motor, plus speed and according to a scout in the HN “there’s nothing missing from his game other than height.” High Hopes.
  23. [47] R Tyler Toffoli: 6.00, 183. I really like this kid’s resume and believe he could be a draft steal for a few reasons. He had a very poor start to his season so the boxcars (79 points in 65 OHL games) are very impressive. Also, he has a strange name (call it the Morris Titanic syndrome) and I’ve always felt that guys with names like Toffoli (and guys with pedestrian names like Mike Johnson) suffer in these popularity contests. Unreasonable? Hey, I know it seems weird but I’ve been following this stuff forever and the weird names have to be really good if they’re going to be called in the first round. Hell, Christopher From Bjork didn’t even get drafted! Grantchester Meadows.
  24. [30] C Brock Nelson: 6.03, 205. This is already a big forward and he has skill to add to the resume. He’s off to North Dakota (NCAA) which has become an Oiler favorite over the last few years (Vande Velde, Chorney). Eclipse.
  25. [43] L Brad Ross: 5.11, 175. Good skater, a miserable cuss to the opposition and he has some skill. There’s not a lot wrong with this player, although I have him much higher than most of these lists and he’s a long shot for the first round. However, Oiler fans know from watching last season that a gritty winger with enough skill to play with the good players is an extremely valuable thing. Pigs on the Wing (Part 3….)
  26. [49] G Calvin Pickard: 6.01, 195: Remmerde sums him up nicely as a prospect and this is a player Oiler fans should pay some attention to as the draft rolls along. Pickard is an outstanding prospect in an area of need for Edmonton. The Scarecrow.
  27. [45] C Ryan Spooner: 5.10, 175. I should rank him lower because of the injury concerns, but it was a collarbone not a concussion and this kid has talent. Scored 30 goals in 08-09 in the OHL, and potted 54 points in 47 games this season. I think he might be a steal. Signs of Life.
  28. [28] C Charlie Coyle: 6.02, 202. There’s one thing I really like about him (skill set: size/speed/skill) and one thing I don’t like (he dominated a poor junior league) and the latter is the reason he fell so far from my original list. He’ll play for Boston University in the fall. Green is the Colour.
  29. [33] L John McFarland: 6.00, 192. Skill winger with excellent speed and NHL shot (according to the scouts). He did not have a great season and he does have issues (the dreaded lack of hockey sense) but there’s offensive talent here. Sheep.
  30. [20] R Beau Bennett: 6.01, 183. Bennett scored 120 points in 56 BCJHL games and even though it’s a tier 2 league that kind of offense is impressive in any division. Remmerde has his update on him hereTime.

KAILER YAMAMOTO

  • 2016-17: 65GP, 42-57-99 (1.52 points-per-game)
  • 2017-18: 25GP, 12-30-42 (1.68 points-per-game)

Massive recovery to his slow start and he is now tracking ahead of last season (which is important). Yamamoto is the least popular prospect among this blog’s readers since Rob Schremp. As I understand it, the problem many have with this young player is performance during his nine-game audition early in the 2017-18 season. His underlying numbers had some very good arrows (covered here) and he is a quality NHL prospect. When I read the comments about Yamamoto in daily threads, I wonder why he has become a target and further wonder if anyone will stand up for him. I will. I believe in Kailer Yamamoto as an NHL prospect and further believe he has an excellent chance for an NHL career. He will be prone to injuries and physical punishment, just like all of the smaller players currently in the league. That point aside, he has real skill and I’m looking forward to seeing him again on NHL ice.

 

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224 Responses to "Cruel to be kind"

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  1. OriginalPouzar says:

    Leon Draisaitl is a wonderful hockey player.

    Drai is having a better season than last year.

    He’s PPG is higher than last year and he’s spent about half his time away from McDavid centering his own line and often with middling wingers. He’s also doing it almost entirely at evens with something like 5 power play points.

    His ES P/60 is around 2.65 now and I think away from McDavid its likely approaching 2.20.

    Thank goodness we burned that first year of his ELC as, if he was in his last year of his ELC now, he might even get more money.

  2. flyfish1168 says:

    What a roller coaster game last evening. I just want more highs than lows. Would love to reach that climatic point again.
    Glad to see the Oilers not give up when down 3-0

  3. OriginalPouzar says:

    Even after struggling for almost 3 months, Kailer was up to 9th in the WHL in P/G prior to last night’s 5 point night – I’m guessing he’s moved up a few more spots.

    Speaking of heaters, Ostaf Safin was moved back to his natural right wing position (he was being asked to play center – a silly coaching move for a rookie winger – similar to McLellan and Caggulia last year) and has 7 points in 2 games – really starting to heat up.

  4. OriginalPouzar says:

    Auvitu sure was fun to watch last night.

    That game was rivaling the Buffalo game as far as perceived effort and emotion – thank goodness Kassian got a couple lucky breaks and changed the momentum for a bit.

    Still extremely disappointing with the overall effort last night.

    I am liking Strome on the PK although his 5 on 5 game has taken a step back the last two games.

  5. OriginalPouzar says:

    This West Coast road trip really shows how much we miss Adam Larsson and Ryan Nugent Hopkins.

  6. OriginalPouzar says:

    flyfish1168:
    What a roller coaster game last evening. I just want more highs than lows. Would love to reach that climatic point again.
    Glad to see the Oilers not give up when down 3-0

    To be fair, if it wasn’t for a lucky bounce on the 1st goal that created some energy, they had already given up well before the 3rd goal against – the game was rivaling Buffalo at that point.

  7. J-Bo says:

    LT, thank you so much for doing the draft re-looks! They are a delightful addition to the day and perfectly timed considering this wretched roadtrip!

  8. J-Bo says:

    Also, I for one am pumped for Yamamoto long term! He could be McDavid’s shooter based on his shot attempts while he was here. As I have stated earlier, based on salary cap issues I believe there is a zero chance that he does not spend his entire season in Edmonton next year. I look forward to it and think he will cover the bet and then some splitting time on the top 3 lines.

  9. Psyche says:

    Factoid – Michael Remmerde, according to LinkedIn, is presently a scout for the NY Islanders based out of Portland. Although he isn’t listed on the NYI webpage: https://www.nhl.com/islanders/team/business-directory

    Leon at centre needs to remain through to the end of the season. He owned the ice last night. Let him roll! When Nuge returns give him the 3rd line with JJ and Strome.

    Auvitu is great. Can’t believe how little he plays. He brings the offensive instinct that many of the Oilers’ D do not possess.

    Connor looked fatigue or banged up last night. I’m sure the losing is wearing on him, especially as captain.

    Hello. My name is Al Montoya. You killed my father. Prepare to die.

  10. J-Bo says:

    Plus… Carolina wishes they would have listened to you at 7 LT.

  11. leadfarmer says:

    I dont think change for the GM and coach are dangerous times. Chia has obviously not learned from his mistakes of being a riverboat gambler and Tmac needs to go for the special teams alone. Good teams have a goal of special teams ranking of 10 or less (meaning pk rank plus pp rank) Our special teams rank is 61 out of a possible 62. While a lot of the roster issues arent his fault the special teams issue falls completely on him. Find a coach that will build this teams game around Mcdavids speed and find players that complement Mcdavid well

  12. Jethro Tull says:

    2010, an absolute beast of a draft. But bedore we have any ‘woulda-shoulda-coulda’ posts, remember who and how the Oilers were being managed by and if these players would have turned out the same going through our system.

  13. leadfarmer says:

    J-Bo:
    Plus… Carolina wishes they would have listened to you at 7 LT.

    Trading Rundblad post draft year 1 to draft Tarasenko is one of the ballsiest and best draft day moves i can think of. Sure now it looks like a no brainer but he was a very good prospect at that time and its pretty rare to move a prospect post draft year 1 for a draft pick in the same range as that prospect was taken the year before

  14. Dustylegnd says:

    OriginalPouzar,

    Leon’s PTS/G sit behind or about even to Pasternak 6.66/year, Marchand 6.1/year, Gaudreau 6.75/year Monahan 6.4/year, Scheifele 6.1/year, Huberdeau 5.9/year

    We pay leon 8.5/year…..the only player on this list over 25 is Marchand……explain to me why we would need to pay Leon even more money if his contract was up this year….he is not going to make the play offs and he is on pace to score 24 goals

    Yes 5×5/60 is Gods flashlight….but scoring PPG’s wins hockey games frequently as well…..

    I wish Leon’s contract had been this year, because it would have resulted in a significant savings on salary over the next 6-8 years

    PS Marchand needs to fire his agent

  15. Woodguy v2.0 says:

    One final item: I have my 2018 Top 62 list ready to go. Would you like to see it tomorrow morning as part of the GDT, or Wednesday, the next day in which there isn’t a GDT or a post GDT? Let me know.

    On its own.

    Also,

    Two tweets from Tyler:

    @dellowhockey
    Since the league went to the current points structure in 2005-06, no team has made the playoffs that had fewer than 51 points after their 54th game.

    A three game slide through California means that the Oilers are at 50 points in 54 games. They’d been pulling out of it whenever they got close but they’ve dropped below the point of no return.

    Also,

    WC standings today using points %, expressed at “games over .500”

    Central
    NSH 21
    WPG 18
    DAL 14

    Pacific
    VGK 22
    SJS 11
    LAK 10

    Wildcard
    STL 14
    MIN 11

    Out of playoffs
    CGY 9
    COL 8
    ANA 8
    CHI 1
    EDM -4
    VAN -7
    ARI -19

    Teams I like a lot (in order): DAL, WPG, NSH…………ANA is a darkhorse. If they get in they should win the Pacific if they play on that side of the ledger

    EC standings today using points %, expressed at “games over .500”

    Atlantic
    TBY 24
    BOS 21
    TOR 14

    Metropolitan
    WSH 15
    NJD 8
    PHI 8

    Wildcard
    PIT 8
    CAR 5

    Out of playoffs
    CBJ 5
    NYI 4
    NYR 2
    FLA 0
    DET -2
    MTL -4
    OTT -7
    BUF -13

    Despite early reports, the EC is still the junior circuit.

    3 WC teams currently out of the playoffs would make in the EC with the same record.

    There’s probably something to mid range teams beating on each other in EC that drives the points down but I don’t think it covers it all.

    Teams I like a lot (in order): BOS, TBY, PIT, WSH

    Lastly,

    NHL standings via points percentage (using games over .500)

    TBY 24
    VGK 22
    BOS 21
    NSH 21
    WPG 18
    WSH 15
    DAL 14
    TOR 14
    STL 14
    MIN 11
    SJS 11
    LAK 10
    CGY 9
    COL 8
    NJD 8
    PHI 8
    PIT 8
    ANA 8
    CAR 5
    CBJ 5
    NYI 4
    NYR 2
    CHI 1
    FLA 0
    DET -2
    MTL -4
    EDM -4
    VAN -7
    OTT -7
    BUF -13
    ARI -19

    EDM last year was about a 95 point team and everything (esp. PP1, goaltending and health) went right

    EDM this year was about a 92 point team and everything (esp PP1, PK, goaltending and health) went wrong.

    The fact that Peter turned his immense collection of high end assets into a middling team with a lower ceiling is good reason to fire him.

    The collection of assets that he was given had all the “toughest to acquire” part of a perennial 100+ point team.

    The fact that PP1 was a mess for most of the year without real change to fix it, the PK has been poor for 2 years, and he needs to be forced to play a top 25C in the NHL at C is probably a reasonable reason to fire McLellan.

    Fire West Edmonton Mall.

  16. russ99 says:

    Dustylegnd:
    OriginalPouzar,

    Leon’s PTS/G sit behind or about even to Pasternak 6.66/year, Marchand 6.1/year, Gaudreau 6.75/year Monahan 6.4/year, Scheifele 6.1/year, Huberdeau 5.9/year

    We pay leon 8.5/year…..the only player on this list over 25 is Marchand……explain to me why we would need to pay Leon even more money if his contract was up this year….he is not going to make the play offs and he is on pace to score 24 goals

    Yes 5×5/60 is Gods flashlight….but scoring PPG’s wins hockey games frequently as well…..

    I wish Leon’s contract had been this year, because it would have resulted in a significant savings on salary over the next 6-8 years

    PS Marchand needs to fire his agent

    He’s 22, was in the top 10 in the league in scoring and we signed him for 8 years. What was the term on those other players?

    Also McDavid’s deal raises all boats. I’d have signed Leon first, but you don’t want to play games when signing the best player in the world.

  17. Dino says:

    Is maroon playing bad so he doesn’t get traded? Who plays like this during a contract season? Makes no sense how bad he’s been.

  18. Pescador says:

    Last night McDavid looked a little fatigued,
    probably from trying to carrying this sad franchise on his back.
    RNH-97-98

  19. Dino says:

    At least this year’s draft is pretty promising in the top 5.

    1. Dahlin
    2 Svechnikov
    3. Boqvist
    4. Zadina
    5. Wahlstrom

    If they get any of those 5 players I’ll consider this accidental tank job a success.

  20. Dustylegnd says:

    russ99,

    Everyone of those deals is for a min of 6 years….Leon’s deal is not a Value contract

  21. flyfish1168 says:

    When we win the lottery for our franchise d-man should we be having a new GM make the pick?

  22. dustrock says:

    If Klefbom & Larsson can’t get back to last year’s performance, this D corpse is below average, or shall we say, below average for a team with Cup aspirations.

    Despite Nurse’s improvement, he seems like a better-skating Jason Smith to me. Not a top pairing player.

    Oilers have a metric tonne of d-men in the #3-7 range.

    They need a top d-man still.

    And they need wingers.

    Do they need a goalie?

    Who gets traded to get the d-man and improve the wingers?

    At the very least we’ll say goodbye to Nuge and Klefbom.

    I guess the other possibility is that Chiarelli believes this D corpse is sufficient if healthy.

  23. flyfish1168 says:

    Dustylegnd:
    russ99,

    Everyone of those deals is for a min of 6 years….Leon’s deal is not a Value contract

    I agree with you. Connor’s contract I believe is too high also. Part of the negotiations should have been, you haven’t won a Stanley yet and if you want one we need to pay for better players to surround you. PC should have dealt with Leon 1st and then Connor. This way no way would Leon ask for so much. PC got fired for his poor CAP control in Beantown and he hasn’t learnt a damn thing. Stupid once got fired stupid twice?

  24. Connoreah says:

    Dustylegnd:
    OriginalPouzar,

    Leon’s PTS/G sit behind or about even to Pasternak 6.66/year, Marchand 6.1/year, Gaudreau 6.75/year Monahan 6.4/year, Scheifele 6.1/year, Huberdeau 5.9/year

    We pay leon 8.5/year…..the only player on this list over 25 is Marchand……explain to me why we would need to pay Leon even more money if his contract was up this year….he is not going to make the play offs and he is on pace to score 24 goals

    Yes 5×5/60 is Gods flashlight….but scoring PPG’s wins hockey games frequently as well…..

    I wish Leon’s contract had been this year, because it would have resulted in a significant savings on salary over the next 6-8 years

    PS Marchand needs to fire his agent

    Genuinely curious – do you expect Toronto fans bitch and moan and whine and complain when Auston Mathews signs for 8 years at $13.5 million, when Connor McDavid signed for $12.5 but puts up ~ 30 points more per season?

    If not, why not?

    I personally don’t think there is such a thing as a black and white comparison between contract signings. Ever. There are too many variables that can impact any given contract. It’s like buying a house. You don’t tell your real estate agent you want to pay 20% less for a house because someone you know bought a similar house 2 years ago in a different city, in a different neighbourhood, under different circumstances for less. That’s not how the market works.

    Also, I think if you did a blind poll you’d find that 25 of 31 teams would sign a 22 year old Draisaitl to an 8 year contract at $8.5 in a heartbeat. Big, skilled centre with elite offensive skill set, who is 4 years away from his peak? $8.5 is going to look like a bargain for most of this contract.

  25. leadfarmer says:

    Dustylegnd:
    OriginalPouzar,

    Leon’s PTS/G sit behind or about even to Pasternak 6.66/year, Marchand 6.1/year, Gaudreau 6.75/year Monahan 6.4/year, Scheifele 6.1/year, Huberdeau 5.9/year

    We pay leon 8.5/year…..the only player on this list over 25 is Marchand……explain to me why we would need to pay Leon even more money if his contract was up this year….he is not going to make the play offs and he is on pace to score 24 goals

    Yes 5×5/60 is Gods flashlight….but scoring PPG’s wins hockey games frequently as well…..

    I wish Leon’s contract had been this year, because it would have resulted in a significant savings on salary over the next 6-8 years

    PS Marchand needs to fire his agent

    Not the first player to turn a good season and a very good playoff performance into an overpay. Should have been 7-7.5 mil. Stupid Chia. He even gave him all the little perks like 7 mil signing bonuses in 2020 and 2022 in case of lockout and 10 team NTC in last 3 years. In terms of his errors this is a relatively small one which tells you how bad he has been as a GM.

    Although I think we are all going to be shocked at some of these contracts getting signed in this and next offseason leaguewide

  26. Concur says:

    A Sunday Rant,

    My concerns rest on the disconnect between TM and PC. PC has cobbled togwther a group of forwards and defensemen that I cannot explain their use. I feel that TM has no plan of what to do with them. Between center choice, winger choices and defense allocation I am left wondering.

    At the beginning of the year, we had Leon, Connor and Nuge for center, didnt use them. Eventually to try to save the season he started using them, good stuff could be seen ther to build on but it didn’t last. Nuge gets hurt, Leon still on Connor’s wing. With a plan, you have who your centers are and only change when you have to, I don’t feel that is what TM is doing. He is still trying things out. It is nice to ezperiment sometimes but we have to be looking at next year and be building towards that.

    People are talking a lot about the defense and some come close to what I want to discuss. The subject of our ‘extra’ defenseman is what confuses me. Matt benning has rarely missed a game while he has brought inconsistency. I know we have suffered with injury and also Sekera need to get up to speed, but that is no reason we cannot be trying other options. Avitu had a nice game last night, but has not seen the lineup in a while. I feel that the only reason Benning is chosen so often is that he is a right shot. Once again is it a disconnect between TM And PC?

    Lastly, winger choice has many people wondering. Drake has a good work ethic but has seen a massive push that boggles. His game play suggests checking role and his is good at it. Slepy shows more ability for creativity but has seen time in the minors. JP was brought along slowly and I thunk that is a credit to development. Lucic has been snake bitten after a strong start to the year. Once a again we see the blender almost every game and not much of a plan.

    Consistency is something that TM has mention is his press conferences, but where is his consistency? I would hope that there is a board set up some where, that both PC and TM refer to that shows their plan on the roster, this year and next. I understand the necesity to try new this but i feel that is all they are doing and still dont know what to do. Is it a disconnect or is it lack of understanding?

  27. OriginalPouzar says:

    Lots of prospects in action on this Sunday (which is great as usually its a lighter day):

    Samorukov, Maksimov, Hebig, Skinner, Wells, Yamamoto

  28. OriginalPouzar says:

    Psyche:
    Factoid – Michael Remmerde, according to LinkedIn, is presently a scout for the NY Islanders based out of Portland. Although he isn’t listed on the NYI webpage: https://www.nhl.com/islanders/team/business-directory

    Leon at centre needs to remain through to the end of the season. He owned the ice last night. Let him roll! When Nuge returns give him the 3rd line with JJ and Strome.

    Auvitu is great. Can’t believe how little he plays. He brings the offensive instinct that many of the Oilers’ D do not possess.

    Connor looked fatigue or banged up last night. I’m sure the losing is wearing on him, especially as captain.

    Hello. My name is Al Montoya. You killed my father. Prepare to die.

    I’m not sure about Strome and JJ flanking Nuge – we need those two to play ample games at center to help evaluate their readiness for 3C, 4C next year.

  29. OriginalPouzar says:

    Dustylegnd:
    OriginalPouzar,

    Leon’s PTS/G sit behind or about even to Pasternak 6.66/year, Marchand 6.1/year, Gaudreau 6.75/year Monahan 6.4/year, Scheifele 6.1/year, Huberdeau 5.9/year

    We pay leon 8.5/year…..the only player on this list over 25 is Marchand……explain to me why we would need to pay Leon even more money if his contract was up this year….he is not going to make the play offs and he is on pace to score 24 goals

    Yes 5×5/60 is Gods flashlight….but scoring PPG’s wins hockey games frequently as well…..

    I wish Leon’s contract had been this year, because it would have resulted in a significant savings on salary over the next 6-8 years

    PS Marchand needs to fire his agent

    The only contract in that group that would really be a comparable for Drai would be Pasternak – the other contracts are now too “old” to be comparables. The salary structure has changed since Gaudreau and Monohan signed their deals and certainty since Schiefle signed his.

    The flames got very lucky with the timing of the Gaudreau and Monhohan contracts – if they were up one year later, they would each have cost the flames $1.5M to $2M more.

    This summer we will see multiple contracts at over $10M cap hits, both for UFAs (Tavares) and RFAs (Matthews) in addition to Eichels, etc.

  30. Brantford Boy says:

    Two HNIC in a row (All Star break aside) Cherry has went out of his way to showcase Taylor Hall and how great he’d be with Edmonton right now, for good measure they even through in Eberle (with Barzal) in the show just to add more fuel to the fire… I hate the 2 years old Hall debates as much as the next guy, but I am really starting to believe this ball has motion, a lot of motion, so long Chiarelli… good luck Gretz…

  31. meanashell11 says:

    OriginalPouzar:
    Leon Draisaitl is a wonderful hockey player.

    Drai is having a better season than last year.

    He’s PPG is higher than last year and he’s spent about half his time away from McDavid centering his own line and often with middling wingers. He’s also doing it almost entirely at evens with something like 5 power play points.

    His ES P/60 is around 2.65 now and I think away from McDavid its likely approaching 2.20.

    Thank goodness we burned that first year of his ELC as, if he was in his last year of his ELC now, he might even get more money.

    OP, you don’t get it. LD is massively over paid and we could not get a 5th back if we retained 50% salary. That’s how it’s done around here. Stop saying nice things aboutLD!

  32. meanashell11 says:

    Dustylegnd:
    OriginalPouzar,

    Leon’s PTS/G sit behind or about even to Pasternak 6.66/year, Marchand 6.1/year, Gaudreau 6.75/year Monahan 6.4/year, Scheifele 6.1/year, Huberdeau 5.9/year

    We pay leon 8.5/year…..the only player on this list over 25 is Marchand……explain to me why we would need to pay Leon even more money if his contract was up this year….he is not going to make the play offs and he is on pace to score 24 goals

    Yes 5×5/60 is Gods flashlight….but scoring PPG’s wins hockey games frequently as well…..

    I wish Leon’s contract had been this year, because it would have resulted in a significant savings on salary over the next 6-8 years

    PS Marchand needs to fire his agent

    Here we go. See this is how you dis the second best player on the team who is having a better season than last and is doing so centering his own line, not riding McD’s coattails!

  33. Woodguy v2.0 says:

    Pouzar and Fogolin are at the “Greatest Team” event.

    That’s great to see.

  34. thehop says:

    ***Also, I think if you did a blind poll you’d find that 25 of 31 teams would sign a 22 year old Draisaitl to an 8 year contract at $8.5 in a heartbeat. Big, skilled centre with elite offensive skill set, who is 4 years away from his peak? $8.5 is going to look like a bargain for most of this contract.***

    The last part of that statement is a massive assumption on your (many others here assume the same) part.

    Comparatively to other players within his cohort, that contract is not providing value. The point was made earlier in the thread and I tend to agree with that assessment.

    The is no guarantee his numbers will get better over time. I suspect they stay the same or decrease slightly.

    In order for his contract to be a value contract, Draisaitl would have to be a top 5 scorer, top 3 centre in the league.

  35. BornInAGretzkyJersey says:

    Two technical comments today, LT:
    1) I really like the grey on white boxes to summarize the forwards and defense… really easy to read.
    2) Personally speaking, I’d opt for a draft list on it’s own day. Especially after a GDT or post mortem, where we’d have more info to drive the discussion as opposed to it being lost in the shuffle of a game

  36. Woodguy v2.0 says:

    meanashell11: Here we go. See this is how you dis the second best player on the team who is having a better season than last and is doing so centering his own line, not riding McD’s coattails!

    One quibble:

    I like Drai a ton and he should be playing C full time.

    That said:

    Drais’s 5v5 pts/60
    With McDavid 3.02
    Without McDavid 2.23

    Drai’s 5v5 Primary pts/60
    With McDavid 2.34
    Without McDavid 1.71

    Drai’s played 358 minutes with McDavid and 350.5 without him 5v5 so when you say “not riding McD’s coattails!” its not quite true.

    His 5v5 results away from McDavid are very good, especially considering his line mates, but he has enough time with McDavid this year that we can’t look at his total results on their own.

    Drai’s results away from McDavid are at a 1st line rate, and that’s something this team needs badly.

    The fact that McLellan has to be forced to play them apart is galling.

  37. fifthcartel says:

    It’s awful they’re missing the playoffs in the last cheap year of 97, but one saving grace could be Chiarelli getting fired.

    I don’t think they can fire Todd’s assistants and call it a day. This is a monumental failure, they won’t be enough of a sacrifice.

    Could McLellan go? I wouldn’t be surprised and if there’s a Quenneville available I think you have to. I’m not huge on McLellan and thought he was a little handcuffed with Chiarelli’s poor roster moves, but his insistence on 97 and 29 and other curious coaching moves make me think his firing could be justified.

    The big target is Peter Chairelli. Will they give him another offseason to “right the ship” because ‘continuity’? I’m not sure. There’s a lot of talk about Chiarelli’s terrible trade and signings. He hasn’t built a team around 97, and they’re close to the cap too.

  38. thehop says:

    meanashell11,

    Why, when others argue that Draisaitl’s contract is not a value contract, do folks here immediately jump to the conclusion that people are saying Draisaitl isn’t a great player? I have not read anything here ever that posits anything remotely close to that idea.

    An overpay is an overpay.

    Draisaitl is a great player with MCDavid and without.

  39. fifthcartel says:

    I was looking at contract comparables when there was talk Draisaitl’s ask was $9m.

    It wasn’t close to his value and all the contracts signed put him in the $6-7m range. The Oilers had the leverage and simply chose not to use it. Draisaitl had 5 years of RFA service left because the Oilers kept him up for his ELC years to start but not a UFA year.

    5 RFA years left + spent > 50% of the season playing alongside a generational C and Art Ross-winner and Chiarelli overpays by a million or two.

    I think we can safely say Chiarelli is a bad/terrible negotiator.

  40. OmJo says:

    Woodguy v2.0,

    Fire all the damn malls at this point.

  41. JD_Wry says:

    fifthcartel: but one saving grace could be Chiarelli getting fired.

    Because it can’t get worse than this.

  42. OriginalPouzar says:

    thehop:
    ***Also, I think if you did a blind poll you’d find that 25 of 31 teams would sign a 22 year old Draisaitl to an 8 year contract at $8.5 in a heartbeat. Big, skilled centre with elite offensive skill set, who is 4 years away from his peak? $8.5 is going to look like a bargain for most of this contract.***

    The last part of that statement is a massive assumption on your (many others here assume the same) part.

    Comparatively to other players within his cohort, that contract is not providing value. The point was made earlier in the thread and I tend to agree with that assessment.

    The is no guarantee his numbers will get better over time. I suspect they stay the same or decrease slightly.

    In order for his contract to be a value contract, Draisaitl would have to be a top 5 scorer, top 3 centre in the league.

    How is that last statement true when there are already two contracts signed for greater cap hit than his (McDavid and Eichel) and there is going to be an influx of more over the next few years (Matthews and Tavares this summer).

    There are going to be 10 plus forwards making $10M or more within a few years.

    For the term of the contract, its going to provide value.

    The Schiefle, Gaudreau, Monohan contracts are huge value right now – much moreso than when they were signed. The same thing will happen with Drai’s contract.

    If we didn’t burn a year of his ELC early and we were to sign him this spring with Eichel already signed for $10M and Matthews to potentially get as much as McDavid, Drai could very well come in higher than $8.5M..

  43. Psyche says:

    OriginalPouzar,

    Once Letestu is traded Strome and Khaira will have ample centre opportunities on the 4th line. Either that or play Nuge on the wing, rotating him to centre when it’s required.

    I’m getting impatient for any type of change with the Oilers. A trade, a firing, an impactful hiring (not a part-time role ala Coffey). Successful organizations don’t take months analyzing and twiddling their thumbs. They identify their blindspots and weaknesses and address them.

  44. OriginalPouzar says:

    Woodguy v2.0: One quibble:

    I like Drai a ton and he should be playing C full time.

    That said:

    Drais’s 5v5 pts/60
    With McDavid 3.02
    Without McDavid 2.23

    Drai’s 5v5 Primary pts/60
    With McDavid 2.34
    Without McDavid 1.71

    Drai’s played 358 minutes with McDavid and 350.5 without him 5v5 so when you say “not riding McD’s coattails!” its not quite true.

    His 5v5 results away from McDavid are very good, especially considering his line mates, but he has enough time with McDavid this year that we can’t look at his total results on their own.

    Drai’s results away from McDavid are at a 1st line rate, and that’s something this team needs badly.

    The fact that McLellan has to be forced to play them apart is galling.

    2.34 without McDavid is actually better than I thought – that’s a fantastic number – a large part of his time at center were with 3rd line wingers (3rd line Oiler wingers, tweeners really).

  45. JimmyV1965 says:

    Dustylegnd:
    OriginalPouzar,

    Leon’s PTS/G sit behind or about even to Pasternak 6.66/year, Marchand 6.1/year, Gaudreau 6.75/year Monahan 6.4/year, Scheifele 6.1/year, Huberdeau 5.9/year

    We pay leon 8.5/year…..the only player on this list over 25 is Marchand……explain to me why we would need to pay Leon even more money if his contract was up this year….he is not going to make the play offs and he is on pace to score 24 goals

    Yes 5×5/60 is Gods flashlight….but scoring PPG’s wins hockey games frequently as well…..

    I wish Leon’s contract had been this year, because it would have resulted in a significant savings on salary over the next 6-8 years

    PS Marchand needs to fire his agent

    IMO Leon is better than all the players you listed here, with the exception of Schieffle. I wouldn’t swap him for any of the players on this list, other than Schieffle. Pasternak is close, but he’s also playing on the best line in the NHL. He’s overpaid no question, but Schieffle would be getting much more money if he signed his contract last year. Leon is the least of the worries on this team.

  46. thehop says:

    OriginalPouzar,

    Let’s start here.

    Feel free to tell me exactly how many points he will score, every year for the duration of his contract.

    You can’t. All one can look at is the current production. The current production does not provide value for the number and the term.

    I see a Management team has made the same erroneous assumption. That’s why the schiefle, gaudreau and even tarasenko contracts are palatable.

    My greater point is, the Oilers cannot afford to overpay anyone. This team is seriously flawed and I believe there are very few people who are fans of the team who have an interest in rebuild3.0.

    If Chiarelli would have negotiated contracts for value :ie Draisaitl and MCDavid to a lesser extent,the opportunity to sign players or trade players to improve the team sooner rather than later, would be greater.

  47. OmJo says:

    Todd McLellan must be a goaltenders worst nightmare. He overplays his starter, and underplays his backup, so if they struggle, they struggle at the same time.

  48. I don't Khaira bout Hall says:

    I think a lot of the oilers negotiating power went out the window when Ryan Johansen Signed for 8×8.

    In my opinion Leon’s contract looks like good value compared to Johansen.

    Do people really expect it to be a value contract in year one of an 8 year deal? What 22 year old player would sign an 8 year deal that is value in year one?

    I wanted it to have a 7 in front of it too but like I said that went out the window with the RJ signing.

  49. Oilman99 says:

    russ99: He’s 22, was in the top 10 in the league in scoring and we signed him for 8 years. What was the term on those other players?

    Also McDavid’s deal raises all boats. I’d have signed Leon first, but you don’t want to play games when signing the best player in the world.

    Leon’s ppg is higher than last year, he is still on an upward curve,his salary will look like a bargain in two years.

  50. thehop says:

    I don’t Khaira bout Hall,

    Honestly, I do.

    Do you think Chiarelli had grounds to argue one season of highly productive play didn’t warrant an AAV of 8.5 million?

    The body of work was not there. Start at Gaudreau and submit at Tarasenko. Meet in the middle.

  51. Oilman99 says:

    meanashell11: OP, you don’t get it. LD is massively over paid and we could not get a 5th back if we retained 50% salary. That’s how it’s done around here. Stop saying nice things aboutLD!

    After watching LD’s performance last night how can you Make a statement like that. Get your head out of the sand.

  52. I don't Khaira bout Hall says:

    thehop,

    If that’s the case then I think you have to look at a bridge deal. Would you advocate for that over having Leon signed for 8×8.5? I think this deal is just gonna look better when the Mathew’s and Laine’s of the league sign their deals.

  53. OmJo says:

    Connoreah: Also, I think if you did a blind poll you’d find that 25 of 31 teams would sign a 22 year old Draisaitl to an 8 year contract at $8.5 in a heartbeat. Big, skilled centre with elite offensive skill set, who is 4 years away from his peak? $8.5 is going to look like a bargain for most of this contract.

    Then why didn’t they? He was RFA, open to offer sheets for a month.

    In Taylor Hall’s contract year, he finished 9th in league scoring without the luxury of playing with a generational talent. 3rd in left wing scoring behind Kunitz (Crosby) and Ovechkin. He signed for $6M x 7yrs at 21 years old. That should have been the ideal contract to sign Draisaitl to, IMO. Okay, but what about inflation? Pastrnak signed has a cap hit of $6.666M. There’s the inflation. He finished 5th in RW scoring, had .01 difference in PPG than Draisaitl last season on a worse team without the best player in the league, and he signed at 20 years old.

    I like Draisaitl, he’s a very important player on this team behind only McDavid and Talbot (when he’s on) but the contract is indefensible, IMO, for whatever it’s worth.

    EDIT: As godot10 mentioned, I was wrong about when Hall signed his contract.

  54. OriginalPouzar says:

    thehop:
    OriginalPouzar,

    Let’s start here.

    Feel free to tell me exactly how many points he will score, every year for the duration of his contract.

    You can’t. All one can look at is the current production. The current production does not provide value for the number and the term.

    I see a Management team has made the same erroneous assumption. That’s why the schiefle, gaudreau and even tarasenko contracts are palatable.

    My greater point is, the Oilers cannot afford to overpay anyone. This team is seriously flawed and I believe there are very few people who are fans of the team who have an interest in rebuild3.0.

    If Chiarelli would have negotiated contracts for value :ie Draisaitl and MCDavid to a lesser extent,the opportunity to sign players or trade players to improve the team sooner rather than later, would be greater.

    Considering his age, its quite reasonable to assume that he will continue to get better over the next number of years – his overall game for the next 5 years or so and his offensive production for a couple of years still.

    Further, as I’ve stated, considering the contracts that are being signed (both by RFAs and UFAs) already $10M and soon to be well over $10M (Matthews and Tavares this summer), his contract will be value vis-a-vis the new contracts being signed just like you profess that its the opposite of value vis-a-vis contracts signed 3 years ago.

    I’ve never once said that Chiarelli negotiated a good deal, in fact, the opposite, however, at the same time, salaries are exploding for the young elite and, shortly, $8.5M will not be high for his comparables.

    I’m also one that thinks that McDavid’s contract is not value vis-a-vis the comparables when it was signed. Once Matthews and Tavares sign, it will become more value.

  55. OriginalPouzar says:

    OmJo:
    Todd McLellan must be a goaltenders worst nightmare. He overplays his starter, and underplays his backup, so if they struggle, they struggle at the same time.

    How has Montoya been underplayed? He’s seen quite a bit of ice in his time as an Oiler.

  56. OmJo says:

    leadfarmer: Although I think we are all going to be shocked at some of these contracts getting signed in this and next offseason leaguewide

    Yup.

  57. thehop says:

    I don’t Khaira bout Hall,

    First preference is a GM who understands how to negotiate.

    Second is a bridge deal. Yes. At least then my argument for a body of work is nil and void.

  58. fifthcartel says:

    Draisaitl’s bloated cap hit is just another symptom of Chiarelli Management.

    My biggest takeaway from the way Chiarelli operates is he does not care about losing value or overpaying to get what he wants.

    Missed out on Dougie Hamilton and in your first draft as GM? Trade two high draft picks for Griffin Reinhart to get your young defenceman!

    Need a RHD after a poor, injury plagued-season? Shop Taylor Hall aggressively and take a loss to fill a need.

    Traded Taylor Hall so need a replacement LW? Here’s all the money, Milan Lucic.

    Kris Russell wants to play in Alberta despite not receiving a contract all summer last season? Give him 4×4 with a full NMC and a modified NTC.

    Jordan Eberle doesn’t score in the playoffs? Whatever, go to your ‘ole pal Garth and get another NYI-Chiarelli deal done!

    McDavid and Draisaitl can be extended? Sign them for 8 years whatever the price.

  59. OmJo says:

    OriginalPouzar: How has Montoya been underplayed?He’s seen quite a bit of ice in his time as an Oiler.

    Talking more about LB, but I don’t expect it to change with Montoya. 2 starts since January 4th, both of them coming in February, with a struggling starter? Talbot is clearly struggling and yet keeps getting thrown out there as if playing him every single game is going to magically fix anything. It’s insanity…

  60. OmJo says:

    meanashell11: Here we go. See this is how you dis the second best player on the team who is having a better season than last and is doing so centering his own line, not riding McD’s coattails!

    Who’s dissing him?

    Comparing him to Pastrnak and Tarasenko is hardly dissing the player.

    The beef is with the contract, nobody is saying trade him for Philip Larsen.

  61. OmJo says:

    I don’t Khaira bout Hall:
    thehop,

    If that’s the case then I think you have to look at a bridge deal. Would you advocate for that over having Leon signed for 8×8.5? I think this deal is just gonna look better when the Mathew’s and Laine’s of the league sign their deals.

    Something about two wrongs don’t make a right come to mind here. These contracts are guaranteeing another lockout and to be honest I hope the NHL does not come out of it unscathed this time. They bring this onto themselves…

  62. godot10 says:

    leadfarmer:
    I dont think change for the GM and coach are dangerous times.Chia has obviously not learned from his mistakes of being a riverboat gambler and Tmac needs to go for the special teams alone.Good teams have a goal of special teams ranking of 10 or less (meaning pk rank plus pp rank)Our special teams rank is 61 out of a possible 62.While a lot of the roster issues arent his fault the special teams issue falls completely on him.Find a coach that will build this teams game around Mcdavids speed and find players that complement Mcdavid well

    How are not the roster issues as much McLellan’s fault as Chiarelli? He said coming in that they would change the players, sending out the ones he didn’t want. Then Chiarelli sent out the ones he didn’t want.

  63. thehop says:

    **his contract will be value vis-a-vis the new contracts being signed just like you profess that its the opposite of value vis-a-vis contracts signed 3 years ago.**

    Gaudreau signed last year, Tarasenko the year before not three years ago.

    In light of the assumed contract value for guys like Tavares or Matthews, are you saying you wouldn’t want his contract closer to or at 7?

    THAT is value.

    We are approaching pointless with this debate now unfortunately. I have no interest in speculating about what his point totals will be in the future. Nobody knows.

    I believe Draisaitl at 7X8 or 7×3 is a better place to be for the Oilers than they are now.

  64. JimmyV1965 says:

    Oilman99: After watching LD’s performance last night how can you Make a statement like that. Get your head out of the sand.

    I think he was joking.

  65. leadfarmer says:

    godot10: How are not the roster issues as much McLellan’s fault as Chiarelli?He said coming in that they would change the players, sending out the ones he didn’t want.When Chiarelli sent out the ones he didn’t want.

    Well ultimately the gm decides who to keep and who to trade. From a lot of the verbal in the offseason tmac was not in favor of trading Eberle cause he was worried about losing his leadership. So I don’t think the GM and coach are in sync with the roster

  66. OmJo says:

    godot10: How are not the roster issues as much McLellan’s fault as Chiarelli?He said coming in that they would change the players, sending out the ones he didn’t want.When Chiarelli sent out the ones he didn’t want.

    If your coach tells you I don’t want so-and-so and you jump on the first offer you get for him a week before free agency starts, well… yeah, that’s on the GM, too.

    It’s as if they’re both trying to get back at the other. Strange GM-coach relationship.

  67. leadfarmer says:

    OmJo,

    Talbot struggles early on in the season but after his injury he has played a lot better than the defense in front of him. We can fire all our goalies into the sun but until these guys stop turning the puck over especially in horrible areas, missing on 10 foot passes and not tying up sticks in the slot the next batch of goalies is not going to do any better.
    It’s still amazes me how bad we are at tipping pucks

  68. Woogie63 says:

    Lots of “ya buts” today.

    Let’s see

    One of the top 3 cities the players don’t want to play in
    Smaller economy for the owner
    Shadow from 30 years ago is alive

    Each night Oiler fans;

    Team that is spent basically to the cap
    Best building in the NHL
    Building is filled with Orange and is fun
    Best player in the NHL
    Connor and Leon for 8 more years
    Jesse, JJ, Zach, Pat and Milan play a game that is entertaining
    Darnell, Oscar and Adam are great to watch

    What do we talk about-
    Two year old trades
    5 th defenceman
    Lack of players in Bakersfield
    Losing a trade
    The coach and GM

  69. JimmyV1965 says:

    OmJo: Then why didn’t they? He was RFA, open to offer sheets for a month.

    In Taylor Hall’s contract year, he finished 9th in league scoring without the luxury of playing with a generational talent. 3rd in left wing scoring behind Kunitz (Crosby) and Ovechkin. He signed for $6M x 7yrs at 21 years old. That should have been the ideal contract to sign Draisaitl to, IMO. Okay, but what about inflation? Pastrnak signed has a cap hit of $6.666M. There’s the inflation. He finished 5th in RW scoring, had .01 difference in PPG than Draisaitl last season on a worse team without the best player in the league, and he signed at 20 years old.

    I like Draisaitl, he’s a very important player on this team behind only McDavid and Talbot (when he’s on) but the contract is indefensible, IMO, for whatever it’s worth.

    I think the Drai contract was an overpay. Unfortunately, that type of thing will continue to happen as long as Chia is GM. The Lucic and Russel contracts are indefensible. There’s a huge gulf between overpay and indefensible.

  70. OmJo says:

    Also, well done to Kassian for bringing life back to this team last night. Not the hero many of us expected, I’m sure.

    Still wouldn’t mind seeing him in a top 9 role regularly.

  71. OmJo says:

    leadfarmer:
    OmJo,

    Talbot struggles early on in the season but after his injury he has played a lot better than the defense in front of him.We can fire all our goalies into the sun but until these guys stop turning the puck over especially in horrible areas, missing on 10 foot passes and not tying up sticks in the slot the next batch of goalies is not going to do any better.
    It’s still amazes me how bad we are at tipping pucks

    He’s been better for sure, and I’m not trying to throw him under the bus. I don’t blame him for struggling, well not completely. He’s played a lot of hockey the last 3 seasons, more than he’s played in his entire pro career IIRC. I think he needs a few games to just regain his composure. Giving up the first goal early in games is a mental thing, not a skill issue.

    Last season if the team made mistakes he’d still be there to save the day. This season, not so much. Let him watch a couple of games, I think it’ll do wonders for him.

  72. JimmyV1965 says:

    thehop:
    I don’t Khaira bout Hall,

    First preference is a GM who understands how to negotiate.

    Second is a bridge deal. Yes. At least then my argument for a body of work is nil and void.

    And this is absolutely the fatal flaw with Chia. He is incapable of negotiating contracts or trades. He’s pretty good at the other stuff, like drafting and having a vision for what his team should look like, but any positives are obliterated by his awful negotiating skills.

  73. OmJo says:

    Woogie63: What do we talk about-
    Two year old trades
    5 th defenceman
    Lack of players in Bakersfield
    Losing a trade
    The coach and GM

    Well yeah… The reasons why we are where we are today. These didn’t all happen in a vacuum. To be fair, this team hasn’t giving us much else to talk about this season.

  74. godot10 says:

    Concur:

    Lastly, winger choice has many people wondering.Drake has a good work ethic but has seen a massive push that boggles.His game play suggests checking role and his is good at it.

    Caggiula is a BAD defensive player. Close to the worst forward defensively on the team. He is NOT a good checker at all.

    He was a player in need of a full season and a half in the AHL learning how to be a reliable two way player, but Chiarelli clearly guaranteed him NHL games in a handshake deal to get him to come to Edmonton.

  75. godot10 says:

    OriginalPouzar: I’m not sure about Strome and JJ flanking Nuge – we need those two to play ample games at center to help evaluate their readiness for 3C, 4C next year.

    There is no need for further evaluation of Strome. If he wants to sign a one-year deal for one million (which carries no cap risk) I would have him back, but otherwise there is no reason for further interest in this player.

  76. Sighduck says:

    Woodguy v2.0,

    Wow the metro was such a monster division early on in the year but the whole eastern conference has taken such a huge dip.

    NYI has been exactly what the media hyped EDM to be a few years ago, winning (and losing) with a high octane offense but iffy D.

    What are your thoughts on Boston? Team has been coming on strong and with TBL fading just a bit the east could open up a bit.

  77. Gret99zky says:

    Woogie63,

    haha

    Might as well throw in universal health care, high minimum wage, and above average life expectancy.

    The building is fun?

    Milan plays an entertaining game?

    Seriously?

  78. godot10 says:

    thehop:
    OriginalPouzar,

    Let’s start here.

    Feel free to tell me exactly how many points he will score, every year for the duration of his contract.

    You can’t. All one can look at is the current production. The current production does not provide value for the number and the term.

    I see a Management team has made the same erroneous assumption. That’s why the schiefle, gaudreau and even tarasenko contracts are palatable.

    My greater point is, the Oilers cannot afford to overpay anyone. This team is seriously flawed and I believe there are very few people who are fans of the team who have an interest in rebuild3.0.

    If Chiarelli would have negotiated contracts for value :ie Draisaitl and MCDavid to a lesser extent,the opportunity to sign players or trade players to improve the team sooner rather than later, would be greater.

    Draisaitl’s contract is NOT causing the OIlers cap problem. Lucic’s, Russell’s, and Kassian’s are.

    Paying the players who drive the play and are difference makers is never a mistake. Paying the guys who aren’t is the mistake.

  79. thehop says:

    OmJo,

    I love that people here were ripping him earlier this week.
    Overpaid, hasn’t produced all season…. Blah blah.

    He is a part of the solution. Not a part of the problem. Everyone except MCDavid and Draisaitl have struggle to be consistent this year.

    The high points of my fandom this season all involve Kassian.

  80. rickithebear says:

    russ99: He’s 22, was in the top 10 in the league in scoring and we signed him for 8 years. What was the term on those other players?

    Also McDavid’s deal raises all boats. I’d have signed Leon first, but you don’t want to play games when signing the best player in the world.

    thehop:
    I don’t Khaira bout Hall,

    First preference is a GM who understands how to negotiate.

    Second is a bridge deal. Yes. At least then my argument for a body of work is nil and void.

    A gm needs to look at the baseline for top end forwards coming out of ELC
    6m @ 5yr
    Then look at baseline of PPG for the group.
    Establish dollar increment for
    Each year above 5 yrs. .375M
    Ppg above baseline.

    Gaudreau 6yr @ 6.75m
    1 year .375
    2 increments above .750M
    Should have been 6 @ 7.125

    Draisatl 8 @ 8.5M
    3 years 1.125M
    3 increments 1.125
    Should have been 8 @ 8.25M

    McDavid 8 @ 12.5
    3 yr 1.125
    8 increments 3M
    By ELC measure 8. @ 10.125M
    But % of cap @ signing for elites like Crosby, marking, ovechkin restricted to first 8 years of contract.
    Avg suggests 8@ 12.125M

  81. Dominoiler says:

    I can’t stand Patty Maroon anymore, too many of those damned ‘single moments’ have tarnished my view of the player..

    Maroon went walkabout while his guy, hertl, scores the fourth goal last night.. Similarly, his guy scores the winner the night before because he doesn’t tie up the stick to be ‘also in photo’..

    Sure, they don’t have a material player for his spot in the system (maybe shlepy) but they can’t​ afford to russel themselves into signing a middling player at middling money that could have been spent on an upgrade.. with that level of effort and defensive awareness, being a weak link on an already hazardously weak chain, he has to be sent out.. if there is no turnover then how can they improve?..

  82. JimmyV1965 says:

    leadfarmer:
    OmJo,

    Talbot struggles early on in the season but after his injury he has played a lot better than the defense in front of him.We can fire all our goalies into the sun but until these guys stop turning the puck over especially in horrible areas, missing on 10 foot passes and not tying up sticks in the slot the next batch of goalies is not going to do any better.
    It’s still amazes me how bad we are at tipping pucks

    I think there’s a symbiotic relationship between the goalie and his dmen. The goalie starts the year playing awful and that affects the dmen. Suddenly all their miscues end up in the net and the dmen start gripping their sticks tighter and begin second guessing the decisions they make. This in turn cause more egregious misplays, that end up in the net.

    Allowing 10 goals on the first shot of the game must really screw with the heads of the dmen. The first goal last night is a good example. The dman is battling his man in front of the net as he should be doing. This inadvertently creates a screen for the goalie. There’s a shot from the point and it ends up in the net. The dman is doing his job, but creates a screen. The goalie needs to find a way to see that shot. It’s his job to battle through the screen and get eyes on the puck. But he fails to do that and the puck is in the net. The dman is standing there afterwards wondering what the hell he did. It doesn’t help that the goalie gives him a death stare to boot.

    This is no excuse for our dmen. They have been awful. But they were better last year because the goalie was better. Our goalie was better last year because his dmen were better. What can’t be disputed IMO is the inconsistent play of the goalies. Talbot has had some good games with this same defence, but many, many stinkers too.

  83. thehop says:

    godot10,

    I agree. Those contracts are the salvo’s that may sink the good ship Oilers.

    Overpaying players is an issue endemic of this management team. Draisaitl included.

  84. OriginalPouzar says:

    OmJo: Talking more about LB, but I don’t expect it to change with Montoya. 2 starts since January 4th, both of them coming in February, with a struggling starter? Talbot is clearly struggling and yet keeps getting thrown out there as if playing him every single game is going to magically fix anything. It’s insanity…

    Well, to be fair, how many games did the team have in January?

    There was tons of rest and Talbot was playing much better (generally) than earlier in the year.

    Also, I believe they had to run with Talbot – at the end of the day, if they were going to make a miracle run to the playoffs, it was going to be on the back of McDavid and Talbot, not McDavid and Montoya – their only chance was for Talbot to find his game from last year. Clearly that didn’t happen.

  85. godot10 says:

    OmJo: Then why didn’t they? He was RFA, open to offer sheets for a month.

    In Taylor Hall’s contract year, he finished 9th in league scoring without the luxury of playing with a generational talent. 3rd in left wing scoring behind Kunitz (Crosby) and Ovechkin. He signed for $6M x 7yrs at 21 years old. That should have been the ideal contract to sign Draisaitl to, IMO. Okay, but what about inflation? Pastrnak signed has a cap hit of $6.666M. There’s the inflation. He finished 5th in RW scoring, had .01 difference in PPG than Draisaitl last season on a worse team without the best player in the league, and he signed at 20 years old.

    I like Draisaitl, he’s a very important player on this team behind only McDavid and Talbot (when he’s on) but the contract is indefensible, IMO, for whatever it’s worth.

    Taylor Hall signed his 2nd contract after his 2nd NHL season, before he finished top 10 in NHL scoring under Krueger in the last year of his ELC. It was like Schieffle’s contract, both signed long term before they went supernova.

    Taylor Hall would not have come in at $6 million if the Oilers had waited till after the 3rd year of his ELC.

  86. OriginalPouzar says:

    thehop:
    **his contract will be value vis-a-vis the new contracts being signed just like you profess that its the opposite of value vis-a-vis contracts signed 3 years ago.**

    Gaudreau signed last year, Tarasenko the year before not three years ago.

    In light of the assumed contract value for guys like Tavares or Matthews, are you saying you wouldn’t want his contract closer to or at 7?

    THAT is value.

    We are approaching pointless with this debate now unfortunately. I have no interest in speculating about what his point totals will be in the future. Nobody knows.

    I believe Draisaitl at 7X8 or 7×3 is a better place to be for the Oilers than they are now.

    As I said, the flames are extremely lucky that the Gaudreau and Monohan contract weren’t up a year later as it would have cost them about $1.5M to $2M extra per contract. Even flames fans acknowledge they are lucky in that regard.

    The RFA contract landscape has changed – yes, Chiarelli and the Oilers played a big part in that but it was essentially b/c of McDavid.

    Of course I would like Drai to come in cheaper and, as I said, I don’t profess to say that Chiarelli got a great deal at the time of signing but I do think that contract will look just fine in a year or two when there are multiple contacts over $10M for RFAs.

  87. godot10 says:

    OmJo:
    Also, well done to Kassian for bringing life back to this team last night. Not the hero many of us expected, I’m sure.

    Still wouldn’t mind seeing him in a top 9 role regularly.

    Kassian plays about ten games a year and disappears for the rest.

  88. OriginalPouzar says:

    godot10: There is no need for further evaluation of Strome.If he wants to sign a one-year deal for one million (which carries no cap risk)I would have him back, but otherwise there is no reason for further interest in this player.

    We know that you have an extreme bias against the player which leads to your opinions on him, to me at least, meaning very little.

    The last 40 games of the season do not mean nothing, even if you think they do.

    Strome is becoming our best PK forward, out of nowhere – I’m looking forward to seeing if that continues.

  89. rickithebear says:

    thehop:
    OmJo,

    I love that people here were ripping him earlier this week.
    Overpaid, hasn’t produced all season…. Blah blah.

    He is a part of the solution. Not a part of the problem. Everyone except MCDavid and Draisaitl have struggle to be consistent this year.

    The high points of my fandom this season all involve Kassian.

    RNH on pace for
    80gm 27G 53P
    Before injury

    The problem is in injured years he misses 21gm
    21gm of #13-16 fwd
    A performance issue.
    Same problem as Hall.

    They cannot stay healthy in the WC.

  90. Woogie63 says:

    Gret99zky:
    Woogie63,

    haha

    Might as well throw in universal health care, high minimum wage, and above average life expectancy.

    The building is fun?

    Milan plays an entertaining game?

    Seriously?

    I have been in every Canadian team’s building multiple times this year. Edmonton’s atmosphere is as good as any other building imo. Vancouver, Ottawa and Montreal are NO FUN. TORONTO is very blue suit. Winnipeg, Calgary and Edmonton is fun and can be loud.

    Best atmosphere in sport is Seahawks, if you have not gone and if you love being at the game … Seattle is a must. Everyone is loud and unconditional for the Hawks. Travel in the USA with In A Hawks jacket you will be meet with “go Hawks” everywhere you go.

    When Milan is hitting Avs game… people enjoy his game ask #54 on the Avs if he likes playing Milan

  91. thehop says:

    OriginalPouzar: We know that you have an extreme bias against the player which leads to your opinions on him, to me at least, meaning very little.

    The last 40 games of the season do not mean nothing, even if you think they do.

    Strome is becoming our best PK forward, out of nowhere – I’m looking forward to seeing if that continues.

    Any numbers to back that claim up?

    Speaking of bias, anecdotally being the best pk’ing forward on the worst PK’ing team in the NHL isn’t exactly the kind of praise I get excited about.

  92. OriginalPouzar says:

    Dominoiler:
    I can’t stand Patty Maroon anymore, too many of those damned ‘single moments’ have tarnished my view of the player..

    Maroon went walkabout while his guy, hertl, scores the fourth goal last night.. Similarly, his guy scores the winner the night before because he doesn’t tie up the stick to be ‘also in photo’..

    Sure, they don’t have a material player for his spot in the system (maybe shlepy) but they can’t​ afford to russel themselves into signing a middling player at middling money that could have been spent on an upgrade.. with that level of effort and defensive awareness, being a weak link on an already hazardously weak chain, he has to be sent out.. if there is no turnover then how can they improve?..

    I can’t say that I “can’t stand” Maroon but he has played his worst three games as an Oiler over the last few days. Horribly lazy defensive zone coverage plays. I believe he is battling the flu (he missed practice a few days back) although that’s not an excuse if he’s in the lineup.

    With that said, Patty needs to be dealt – we need the futures – and, in my opinion, not re-signed to any contract with term.

    Our cap structure requires true extreme value contracts in the top 6 wing position. Its a must. We cannot afford to pay a Maroon $4M X 4. We need a prospect or two to produce in the top 6 for a cap hit of $1M.

    I believe he have the prospects in our system but it may take another season and a half until they are ready to provide that extreme value in the top 6. Yamamoto, potentially Benson – Maksimov and/or Safin the year after, etc.

    No, not all these guys will “hit” but we only need a couple to pan out over the next few years.

    I am willing to leave a hole in the top 6 for the 2018/19 season in order to not commit cap to an aging UFA veteran. It will cause more heartache next year but will be for the medium-long term good of the team.

    In a perfect world, we’d sign a stop gap winger for a one-year term for our top 6 – something like Vanek.

  93. Dominoiler says:

    On the positive side of life / oilerdom, auvito was a joy to watch, bringing aspects to the game no other oiler dman is currently.. great urgency and assertiveness..

  94. OmJo says:

    godot10: Taylor Hall signed his 2nd contract after his 2nd NHL season, before he finished top 10 in NHL scoring under Krueger in the last year of his ELC.It was like Schieffle’s contract, both signed long term before they went supernova.

    Taylor Hall would not have come in at $6 million if the Oilers had waited till after the 3rd year of his ELC.

    Thanks for correcting me, edited the post. I’ll be sure to use Cap Friendly over Sportrac from now on, they have the date of signing.

    I still think negotiations should have started at $6M for 1 year.

    That contract is the best thing Tambellinni has ever done. And it speaks about Locker Room Cancers’ character that he signed that contract to begin with rather than waiting the extra year, too, IMO.

  95. OriginalPouzar says:

    thehop: Any numbers to back that claim up?

    Anecdotally being the best pk’ing forward on the worst PK’ing team in the NHL isn’t exactly the kind of praise I get excited about.

    Nope, no numbers to back it up except for the fact he’s been on the ice for a total of zero PK goals against. I was being a bit facetious about “best penalty killing forward” but he is doing well.

    I think it was 6 games ago now that he got his first PK action. He had had 3 min on the PK all year and then he got over 3 minutes in that one game (Nuge was out, Letestu was scratched, Kassian was taking misconducts, etc.).

    He has been on the PK for the next 5 games and, for the last 3, has been on the first unit out.

    To my eye, he has not been on the ice for a single PK goal against.

    I’m not sure what his shot suppression metrics are on the PK, etc. but he’s not getting scored on and, by eye, he is looking good on the PK – aggressive on the puck holder, in the shooting lanes, good clears, etc.

    Super small sample size (6 games) but lets not forget, neither Kassian not Pouliot ever killed penalties until they came to Edmonton – its a learned skill and Strome is not a stupid hockey player.

  96. Georges says:

    Here again is the year to year correlation of 5v5 CF Rel for defensemen who play at least 200 minutes:

    13-14 .49
    14-15 .47
    15-16 .42
    16-17 .51

    The correlation is weak but significant. Knowing this season’s CF Rel will help you reduce the uncertainty in predicting next season’s CF Rel. I showed yesterday, however, that CF Rel is a poor single metric for evaluating defensemen in the current season and it’s next to useless in predicting next season’s GF Rel. But let’s go along and take a closer look at CF Rel where it appears to be strongest, the fact that it has a relatively high year to year correlation compared to other metrics.

    Let’s assume that because of the year to year correlation, CF Rel is telling us something about the ability of defensemen. (Now we know that whatever this ability is, it doesn’t much help his team win games, but we’ll set that aside for now.) If this is the case, i.e., CF Rel is an attribute of the player that’s independent of the effects of his team or teammates (context), then it should be reasonable to assume that changing a team and teammates shouldn’t affect the size of the season to season correlation, at least by that much. A defensemen who’s relatively better at tilting the ice in one context should still be relatively better in a different context.

    Lets’ first look at the CF Rel between season correlation for defensemen who stay with the same team in both seasons:

    13-14 .53
    14-15 .56
    15-16 .51
    16-17 .53

    Stronger numbers than what we saw above.

    How about defensemen who change teams from season to season? What’s the season to season CF Rel correlation for this group?

    13-14 .38
    14-15 .21
    15-16 .25
    16-17 .43

    Hmm…

    So when defensemen stay with one team, there seems to be more predictability in their season to season performance on CF Rel. Note again that the correlation is not that strong. Even on the same team, the context changes season to season: different players, different systems, possibly different coaches. However, defensemen seem to have some non-trivial tendency to find a familiar place in the new order when they stay in one place.

    But when defensemen change teams, the predictability of season to season CF Rel doesn’t hold up as well. This undermines the idea that CF Rel is measuring some attribute or ability of defensemen that’s independent of context. Because the ability doesn’t predictably travel with him to his new team.

    The overall season to season CF Rel correlation appears to be a result of defensemen playing to a type on a team and its systems. If you trade for a defensemen based on this metric, don’t be surprised if his number doesn’t replicate in his new context.

  97. rickithebear says:

    Jimmy:
    Based on corsix,y and open net targeting.
    Dpairs establish the save% mean goalies perform around.
    When Klefbom and Nurse are on the ice they create bottom 30 save% mean.
    A goalies performance is relative to results above the established mean.
    Just like forwards measured in the 512 situational groups.

    Last year Elliot was .o39 above the mean for Hamilton – Gio

  98. Dominoiler says:

    OriginalPouzar: We know that you have an extreme bias against the player which leads to your opinions on him, to me at least, meaning very little.

    The last 40 games of the season do not mean nothing, even if you think they do.

    Strome is becoming our best PK forward, out of nowhere – I’m looking forward to seeing if that continues.

    I surprised myself by coming around on strome, aided by some posters like yourself being books enough to buck the trend of hating on him (which, imo, was well earned through the first 40 games)

    He seems to the rounding out into an unspectacularly somewhat solid depth player, decent passer, game seems to be slowed down.. would i pay 3M for that?.. depends how the next 30 games go, 5v5 P/60, and if i want drai on RW next year..

  99. Gret99zky says:

    Connoreah: Genuinely curious – do you expect Toronto fans bitch and moan and whine and complain when Auston Mathews signs for 8 years at $13.5 million, when Connor McDavid signed for $12.5 but puts up ~ 30 points more per season?

    If not, why not?

    I don’t think Toronto fans will bitch and moan.

    Because I don’t think Matthews will sign at $13.5M.

    What are the current overpays or unreasonable contracts on the Leafs now?

    Not many.

    Lou is a pretty shrewd negotiator.

    Will Oiler fans increase their bitching and moaning when Matthews signs for less than $12.5M and allows management to keep their young skilled players?

    If not, why?

  100. OmJo says:

    godot10: Kassian plays about ten games a year and disappears for the rest.

    And yet he’s still 8th in EVG for forwards. I don’t expect any player to do much playing exclusively on the 4th line of this team in particular. We barely have enough forward depth to ice 4 competitive lines. If he stepped up a bit more like he did yesterday that would help this team immensely going forward, considering our RW depth.

    I think he could do more in a top 9 role. We might never know for sure though.

  101. godot10 says:

    Dominoiler: I surprised myself by coming around on strome, aided by some posters like yourself being books enough to buck the trend of hating on him (which, imo, was well earned through the first 40 games)

    40 games plus 5 previous seasons.

    Fool me once, shame on you. Fool me twice….

  102. Mr. D. says:

    dustrock:
    If Klefbom & Larsson can’t get back to last year’s performance, this D corpse is below average, or shall we say, below average for a team with Cup aspirations.

    Despite Nurse’s improvement, he seems like a better-skating Jason Smith to me. Not a top pairing player.

    Oilers have a metric tonne of d-men in the #3-7 range.

    They need a top d-man still.

    And they need wingers.

    Do they need a goalie?

    Who gets traded to get the d-man and improve the wingers?

    At the very least we’ll say goodbye to Nuge and Klefbom.

    I guess the other possibility is that Chiarelli believes this D corpse is sufficient if healthy.

    Chia is in a tough spot. All his high paid D are underachieving. Hell lose his ass on any tRade. GM s don’t want underachievers.

  103. thehop says:

    Dominoiler,

    Would you sign him to a one or two year, one way deal?

    I would. His strengths are sorely lacking on the blue line.

  104. OmJo says:

    OriginalPouzar,

    If Power Play Team Goals Against is PK goals against on NHL.com (why not just call it that?) then he’s been on the ice for 3 against this season.

    http://www.nhl.com/stats/player?aggregate=1&report=plusminus&reportType=season&seasonFrom=20172018&seasonTo=20172018&gameType=2&playerPlayedFor=team.22&filter=gamesPlayed,gte,1&sort=ppTeamGoalsAgainst

    Not to say he hasn’t improved as the season has gone on. But I still don’t risk giving him $3M, still too streaky of a player.

  105. thehop says:

    OriginalPouzar,

    Agreed that it is a learned skill. I think it would increase the chances of him getting a contract if he can become a reliable pk’er.

  106. Dustylegnd says:

    OriginalPouzar: The only contract in that group that would really be a comparable for Drai would be Pasternak – the other contracts are now too “old” to be comparables. The salary structure has changed since Gaudreau and Monohan signed their deals and certainty since Schiefle signed his.

    This summer we will see multiple contracts at over $10M cap hits, both for UFAs (Tavares) and RFAs (Matthews) in addition to Eichels, etc.

    Lets keep it apples to apples then, Tavares is a UFA….completely different set of market dynamics driving his contract worth

    Mathews gets the benefit of being a #1 overall and is a goal scoring machine that clearly drives his lines production 100% of the time

  107. Georges says:

    Some teams are going to believe that this is their year. Some GM’s will be under a lot of pressure come the deadline. Someone will overpay.

    PC should move 0 players based on how his HC has handled this season. He’s not “fixing” this team through trades. If a GM calls him and offers something reasonable, he should ask for something unreasonable. They’re feeling the pressure to win now. The pressure that’s on him is of a different kind. He needs to lick his wounds and reflect, not act. He shouldn’t (or shouldn’t be allowed to) make trades operating under the assumption that any of his players are no good and should be shipped out on the cheap. He’s made that mistake with this HC too many times already.

  108. VOR says:

    I don’t want to start a fight with anyone.

    However, Leon is, statistically speaking, exceedingly likely to have better years offensively than he has had to date. The current math says it is 4.5 to 1 that he will have better years in the future, ie. a smart money bet. The cap has only gone down one year in the cap era, so again the smart bet is the cap goes up significantly over the next 7 years. There are a number of great players coming up on big pay days. Thus, relatively to NHL salaries it is a good bet that Leon’s ranking position in the top paid players will fall a long way.

    So is Leon’s contract good value this year, based on points? I would say no. He is in the top 40 in points and top 30 in ppg and what, top 25 in points per 60. While still playing half the time with McDavid. It isn’t terrible value but I get it being slightly below average value using projected total points in the NHL this year divided by total salaries this year.

    And I think our eye bears this out. There have been games where Leon, with and without McDavid has had dominant, worth every penny, games. If we are attempting to describe reality we also have to admit he has had serious consistency issues and that there have been a number of games he hasn’t come close to covering the bet.

    But I think we all agree he isn’t worth $8,500,000 this year. The question is will Leon’s contract become a relative value contract over its full term? I am making the odds 9-1 in favour of that proposition based on the factors listed above, that players usually have their best years between 23 and 29, that the cap will keep going up, and the number of players paid more than Leon will keep rising. I can’t know any of that but I can determine odds of it working out that way.

  109. russ99 says:

    Leon’s numbers this year suffer, due to a period of poor play after his concussion, due to being shifted around from center to wing, and when at center given the third choice wingers on a team devoid of good wingers.

    So take them with a grain of salt. We see what he can do on the ice, he’s the big center with a complete game that every team needs.

    I’d prefer to overpay Leon a miliion the first years of his deal than the alternative, either losing him as a RFA or losing him or a few other good players after his bridge deal is done when we’re at the cap.

    For all the fans bitch about Chiarelli and don’t regard anything he’s done as astute, locking up our core elite players for 8 years would be the least to bitch about.

  110. Dustylegnd says:

    Connoreah: Genuinely curious – do you expect Toronto fans bitch and moan and whine and complain when Auston Mathews signs for 8 years at $13.5 million, when Connor McDavid signed for $12.5 but puts up ~ 30 points more per season?

    If not, why not?

    Also, I think if you did a blind poll you’d find that 25 of 31 teams would sign a 22 year old Draisaitl to an 8 year contract at $8.5 in a heartbeat. Big, skilled centre with elite offensive skill set, who is 4 years away from his peak? $8.5 is going to look like a bargain for most of this contract.

    Who is bitching and moaning????? I asked OP why he felt we would have to pay Leon more if his contract was up this year especially considering the fact playoffs will be missed and his goals look like they will come in around 24

    Your blind poll assertion is blind speculation

    The Leafs fans have a deep, offensively gifted set of forwards along with solid goaltending and a decent core of puck moving d men

    The leafs also have an excellent farm system stocked with intriguing prospects (currently most wins in the AHL)

    The leafs have a deep and diverse management team with one of the 3 best coaches in the world, a GM who built not 1 or 2 but 3 Cup champion teams, their assist GM is a multi time memorial cup winning coach and owner who seems to be a genius judge of amateur talent

    The leafs do not live with the constant distraction and threat of the FOG and OBC…..

    Therefore, no I don’t expect Leafs Nation to bitch about their contract signings coming up…and you know why?……because Lou is a Wiley,astute, competent ball buster of a deal maker who wins way more than he loses….he will get value for the contracts signed….

  111. Dustylegnd says:

    VOR,

    Great points VOR, I love your measured insightful response, I appreciate the wisdom, thank you, I started this discussion with a response to OP…….immediately I am accused of being a complainer/winer looking to discredit Leon…..all BS

    I would just love to see Chia win on something other than the Maroon trade because his track record post cup Boston is just embarrassing……he literally gets bested on everything he touches…..he is a god awful negotiator

  112. VOR says:

    Interesting fact about the draft: want to know what three variables best predict future time on ice, GvT, Adhusted Plus/Minus, GD on/off per 60, and pretty much every other stat you can come up with to rank defensemen?

    3. Points in draft year.
    2. NHLE in draft year. Which adjusts for league.
    1. NHLP in draft year. Which adjusts for age and power play points.

    Want a dominant NHL dman – take the kid with major offensive upside.

  113. jtblack says:

    Is Leon at $8.5 really what ails this team?

    As OP said, 2 or 3 years from now his contract won’t be discussed, as he will have many players ahead of him in terms of annual salary.

    Lucic at $6 mil? Russell at $4 mil? PC not plugging holes properly. These are the issues that ail this team.

  114. jtblack says:

    VOR:
    Interesting fact about the draft: want to know what three variables best predict future time on ice, GvT, Adhusted Plus/Minus, GD on/off per 60, and pretty much every other stat you can come up with to rank defensemen?

    3. Points in draft year.
    2. NHLE in draft year. Which adjusts for league.
    1. NHLP in draft year. Which adjusts for age and power play points.

    Want a dominant NHL dman – take the kid with major offensive upside.

    Calen Addison from WHL He will be there in Round 2 for the Oilers to take………

  115. Gayfish says:

    Eichel got 10. Matthews will get similar. It will be well south of connor. They are in different leagues. The question is whether the salary gap between McDavid and others overcomes the talent gap.

  116. OriginalPouzar says:

    Samorukov has 5 shots on net through a period and a half (and is plus 1 in a 1-1 tie).

    He is becoming a very involved d-man and his arrows are pointing straight up!

  117. OriginalPouzar says:

    godot10: 40 games plus 5 previous seasons.

    Fool me once, shame on you.Fool me twice….

    I’m guessing Vegas is happy that they didn’t close the book on Jonathan Marchessault after 5 seasons.

    Hoards and hoards of players require 5 plus years development time.

    Is he going to become a 30g scorer? No but he certainly can become a solid 3rd line winger with the ability to play up the lineup in a pinch and, right before our eyes, we are seeing him develop a new, highly important skill, proficiency on the penalty kill.

  118. Georges says:

    As for replacements for the HC, there are two categories of options: coaches who’ve made the Finals and coaches who haven’t.

    20 coaches have made the Finals since the league expanded to 30 teams in 2000-01. 8 of them have multiple appearances. They account for 20 of the 32 Finals spots over that time frame.

    Here’s a list of who is or could be available in the off-season:

    Coach, Finals Appearances (* means Cup Winner)

    Quenneville, 3*
    Sutter, 3*
    Vigneault, 2
    Maurice, 1
    Bylsma, 1*
    MacTavish, 1
    Therrien, 1
    Hartley, 1*
    Tortorella, 1*
    Cooper, 1

    Of the coaches who haven’t made the Finals, you can go with another McLellan type, veteran coach without a Finals appearance. We’d probably want someone with some track record of turnarounds. You’re hoping for a Quenneville or a Sutter story here, guys who had to wait a long time to break through to the Finals and the Cup. These guys are or might be available in the off season.

    Dave Tippett
    Bruce Boudreau
    Barry Trotz
    Jacques Martin (won the Cup twice as an assistant with PIT)

    It’s trickier to find signal on who may be able to break through among the rest. New coaches have a high rate of failure. I don’t think PC can go that route 3 years in. What he might want to consider are coaches who have 1) had a chance before but not much of one, 2) have some playoff experience, 3) a reasonable regular season record, and 4) they’ve been unable to find their way back to the HC ranks. I’m basing this on Bruce Cassidy and Mike Sullivan. Maybe there’s some drive to win and prove themselves after their initial failure. And they’ve had time to learn from whatever went wrong the first time.

    Here are some other names to consider:

    Patrick Roy
    Jim Playfair
    Cory Clouston
    Craig Berube
    Dale Hunter
    Adam Oates
    Dave Cameron
    Mike Johnston
    Guy Carbonneau
    Tony Granato

    I’ll also throw Guy Boucher in there for the run with OTT from last season and the fact he was one game away from the Finals with TBL in his first season coaching. He might be available.

    Some names here may be more ridiculous than others. And some names won’t be available. But, as you can see, it’s a big list.

  119. thehop says:

    VOR,

    You seem like a sharp knife. Without bogging down in the details, can you link or explain the math involved with your odds and predictions?

  120. OriginalPouzar says:

    Dustylegnd: Lets keep it apples to apples then, Tavares is a UFA….completely different set of market dynamics driving his contract worth

    Mathews gets the benefit of being a #1 overall and is a goal scoring machine that clearly drives his lines production 100% of the time

    The difference between high level UFAs and elite RFAs (coming off their ELCs) is disappearing – as we are now seeing. There is still a difference, I acknowledge, however, its not what it used to be.

    Of course, there are many examples of RFAs, some coming off their ELCs, that are going to be $10M plus – Eichel is already there, Matthews and Laine will be there shortly.

    Comparatively, Leon’s $8.5M, while high at the time of signing, will not look bad through its term.

  121. thehop says:

    Georges,

    I would love to see Adam Oates here as a coach. Preferably an assistant but I think he’s got the chops to make a great HC too.

  122. JimmyV1965 says:

    Gret99zky: I don’t think Toronto fans will bitch and moan.

    Because I don’t think Matthews will sign at $13.5M.

    What are the current overpays or unreasonable contracts on the Leafs now?

    Not many.

    Lou is a pretty shrewd negotiator.

    Will Oiler fans increase their bitching and moaning when Matthews signs for less than $12.5M and allows management to keep their young skilled players?

    If not, why?

    If the Mathews is on the ball, they wait until Tavares is signed. He will set the next benchmark. Mathews is great but I doubt they can use McDavid as an equivalent. If Taveres signs for $11 mill, Mathews can make legit argument that’s he’s worth $13 mill.

  123. Jethro Tull says:

    Georges,

    Great list, but the first question on the interview should be “how would you utilise Connor McDavid?”

    And if the answer was”to enable the world’s greatest neutral zone trap”, which it would be from at least three of those guys, you Skype with extreme prejudice.

  124. Ben says:

    APG, announcement coming down shortly: Peter Chiarelli has been fired and will be replaced as GM on an interim basis by the 1985 Edmonton Oilers.

    Reached for comment, Katz said, “These guys are winners individually. So imagine the winningness of all of them back together, recapturing the winning magic of former winning times. And beyond the job of steering the team back to glory, I completely trust these guys to track down the lost snow sled that I cherished in my childhood.”

  125. leadfarmer says:

    Dustylegnd: Who is bitching and moaning????? I asked OP why he felt we would have to pay Leon more if his contract was up this year especially considering the fact playoffs will be missed and his goals look like they will come in around 24

    Your blind poll assertion is blind speculation

    The Leafs fans have a deep, offensively gifted set of forwards along with solid goaltending and a decent core of puck moving d men

    The leafs also have an excellent farm system stocked with intriguing prospects (currently most wins in the AHL)

    The leafs have a deep and diverse management team with one of the 3 best coaches in the world, a GMwho built not 1 or 2 but 3 Cup champion teams, their assist GM is a multi time memorial cup winning coach and owner who seems to be a genius judge of amateur talent

    The leafs do not live with the constant distraction and threat of the FOG and OBC…..

    Therefore, no I don’t expect Leafs Nation to bitch about their contract signings coming up…and you know why?……because Lou is a Wiley,astute, competent ball buster of a deal maker who wins way more than he loses….he will get value for the contracts signed….

    You mean like signing a 38 yo Marleau to a 6.25 a year 35 and above contract that expires when he is almost 41. Such a shrewd negotiator!!! Really took it to Marleaus camp

  126. OilClog says:

    OriginalPouzar: 2.34 without McDavid is actually better than I thought – that’s a fantastic number – a large part of his time at center were with 3rd line wingers (3rd line Oiler wingers, tweeners really).

    That 2.34 is with Mcdavid.. it’s below 1.8 without.

    Drai is amazing, paid a million too much, their camp had all the negotiationing power due to the previous season coaching decisions and playoff performance.

    Coach is a fucking dillhole to start the new season and refuses to put Leon up the middle and sinks the season.

    GM stated several times he wanted Leon up the middle, and it just may save his job this summer. The GM wanted Leon full time up the middle and the coach wanted to be brain dead.

    Leon is not a better power play QB then Mcdavid, Cags is a bottom 6 winger that suffers on the defensive side of things, but people adore him.

    Who would take cags over pitlick? Brain dead organization.

  127. Gret99zky says:

    JimmyV1965: If the Mathews is on the ball, they wait until Tavares is signed. He will set the next benchmark. Mathews is great but I doubt they can use McDavid as an equivalent. If Taveres signs for $11 mill, Mathews can make legit argument that’s he’s worth $13 mill.

    Lou may decide otherwise.

    Matthews is an RFA. Lou can wait him out.

    Or wait for the mystic offer sheet.

    One things for sure, Lou will not be bidding against himself during the Matthews’ negotiation.

  128. Oil2Oilers says:

    Bless Kassian’s cotton socks he had a game last night, but LT you missed a golden opportunity to use a Virtue & Moir photo. They were the best thing on ice last night, McDavid included.

  129. StixMalone says:

    thehop:
    Georges,

    I would love to see Adam Oates here as a coach. Preferably an assistant but I think he’s got the chops to make a great HC too.

    I’d like Lucic to hire him over the summer at least or some other coach that can work on his puck handling skills. I think he can afford it…

  130. VOR says:

    Dustylegnd:
    VOR,

    Great points VOR, I love your measured insightful response, I appreciate the wisdom, thank you, I started this discussion with a response to OP…….immediately I am accused of being a complainer/winer looking to discredit Leon…..all BS

    I would just love to see Chia win on something other than theMaroon trade because his track record post cup Boston is just embarrassing……he literally gets bested on everything he touches…..he is a god awful negotiator

    I went on record early this past summer as believing Leon should be between $6.5 million and $7.5 million over 8 years and that a bridge was a stupid idea because it was likely to cost more in the long run. I argued for $7.5 as the likely outcome. I got some serious blowback for overpaying.

    That said, I have been trying to figure out fair value and likely outcomes if the Oilers had gone with a bridge deal for 3 years at $5.5 million per year. It still strikes me as being Russian roulette. Just Leon’s current performance (which I get being worth $6.3 million) in three years would drive a 5 year deal worth $8.5 million or more.

    Let me know splaying that. The cap is going to be approaching $90 million by then and top forty salaries are projecting to average $8,000,000 and top 20 centers are headed for $9 million. Leon on a crappy team, centering uninspiring line mates is in terms of points per 60 and EV strength points per 60 a top 20 center and that is with the concussion. So he still would be getting his $8.5 million, if not more, 3 years from now.

    So in that analysis Leon is going to be overpaid by no more than $9,000,000 over the 8 years.

    But imagine if like many players he has his best year at 23 or 24 and that it spikes at the average peak of 12% above the average of the two preceding years. Now Leon is negotiating a new contract coming off what is more than a ppg season as a full time center. That would make him top 10 among centers while playing 2C. And he is coming up on UFA. Now the Oilers are screwed. $11+ million per year seems very likely. So a total over the 8 years of $71.5 million versus the $68 million of the current contract.

    I have come to think fair value based on all the risks and unknowns was probably somewhere around $7,750,000 over 8 years. And that the Oilers overpaid by $6,000,000 or a good fourth line role player on a very friendly contract. Or if you like a new Juhar Kharia every couple of years.

    Perhaps more importantly it also, along with Connor’s contract, determined the likely timing of the window of serious Stanley Cup contention. There was this year and then it closes for 4 years or so. Depending how fast the cap increases of course. I don’t know how to externalize that cost and that cost definitely doesn’t result solely or even significantly from Leon’s contract but rather the Oilers overall cap management strategies and the cumulative effect of contract negotiations. But to fans it will be a huge big deal.

  131. Jethro Tull says:

    Gret99zky: Lou may decide otherwise.

    Matthews is an RFA.Lou can wait him out.

    Or wait for the mystic offer sheet.

    One things for sure, Lou will not be bidding against himself during the Matthews’ negotiation.

    Lou can sign whatever contract he wants smug in the knowledge the league will let him off it if it goes wrong.

  132. StixMalone says:

    Gret99zky: Lou may decide otherwise.

    Matthews is an RFA.Lou can wait him out.

    Or wait for the mystic offer sheet.

    One things for sure, Lou will not be bidding against himself during the Matthews’ negotiation.

    I think the deal gets done quickly. Both camps don’t want a fiasco especially in Toronto. Shanahan will make sure of that…..

  133. Jethro Tull says:

    Oil2Oilers:
    Bless Kassian’s cotton socks he had a game last night, but LT you missed a golden opportunity to use a Virtue & Moir photo. They were the best thing on ice last night, McDavid included.

    “Who’s Moir?” – Miss Piggy

  134. Scungilli Slushy says:

    If Todd and Unsneaky Pete get the pipe, and the replacements end up doing exactly the same things, I cannot imagine this place , but at least we’ll definitely know the OBC is interfering with things.

    There should have been a change in tone changing everything and everyone but it’s the same, disliking and trading out the best players for pennies on the dollar. It has been happening for years.

  135. Scungilli Slushy says:

    Kassian is a line tweener. He’s a higher end 4th but it’s too bad he’s not better than he is defensively and PK. But he isn’t consistent enough and isn’t good enough offensively for third line. He gets his jail break goals but that also leads to him cheating for O and not making plays at the defensive blue line.

    So, he’s overpaid. Should be 1M.

    For every player who is not elite they need to say do you want to be part of this? If so here’s what we can pay.

    And stop with the clauses, especially at the end of contracts. They are team crippling and for Leon and Connor the obscene money should be enough, and for the others they aren’t good enough to warrant it.

  136. Bank Shot says:

    fifthcartel:
    Draisaitl’s bloated cap hit is just another symptom of Chiarelli Management.

    My biggest takeaway from the way Chiarelli operates is he does not care about losing value or overpaying to get what he wants.

    Missed out on Dougie Hamilton and in your first draft as GM? Trade two high draft picks for Griffin Reinhart to get your young defenceman!

    It’s funny that Chiarelli gets criticized so much for overpaying for what he wants, but if he would have overpaid for Hamilton a lot of further problems may have been avoided.

    Getting Hamilton would have kept them away from Reinhart. Perhaps with Hamilton in Edmonton, they would have had a better first season with McDavid, and decided not to blow up the core and trade Hall.

    Would have been interesting to see what could have been.

  137. OriginalPouzar says:

    Samorukov with an assist and 8, yes 8 shots on net in a 3-2 loss – that is alot of shots for a d-man.

    Niagra got shutout by Windsor – just a couple shots on net for Maksimov.

  138. Bobcaygeon says:

    godot10: bit.

    Kassian’s contract isn’t the problem…

    I can think of Letestu and Sekera just off the top, meanwhile, Chiarelli is still paying Pouliot when he should have bought him out next season…

  139. Woogie63 says:

    In Canmore this afternoon … Hometown hockey is taken over the Main Street, lots of energy…no Beer Tent? Hello Drake…

  140. Scungilli Slushy says:

    Bank Shot: It’s funny that Chiarelli gets criticized so much for overpaying for what he wants, but if he would have overpaid for Hamilton a lot of further problems may have been avoided.

    Getting Hamilton would have kept them away from Reinhart. Perhaps with Hamilton in Edmonton, they would have had a better first season with McDavid, and decided not to blow up the core and trade Hall.

    Would have been interesting to see what could have been.

    Hamilton would have cost Nurse wasn’t it? I’m not sure Hamilton Klefbom Sekera is better than Klefbom Nurse Larsson, although of course the forwards would be better. Not enough defending skills in the first group.

    I’m also not convinced the only player that could get ‘at the time’ a low offense arguable first RD was Hall. It doesn’t make sense. So the forwards could be better now with Larsson still,IMO

  141. OriginalPouzar says:

    OilClog: That 2.34 is with Mcdavid.. it’s below 1.8 without.

    Drai is amazing, paid a million too much, their camp had all the negotiationing power due to the previous season coaching decisions and playoff performance.

    Coach is a fucking dillhole to start the new season and refuses to put Leon up the middle and sinks the season.

    GM stated several times he wanted Leon up the middle, and it just may save his job this summer. The GM wanted Leon full time up the middle and the coach wanted to be brain dead.

    Leon is not a better power play QB then Mcdavid, Cags is a bottom 6 winger that suffers on the defensive side of things, but people adore him.

    Who would take cags over pitlick? Brain dead organization.

    Sorry, I meant the 2.23 (not the 2.34). 2.23 ESP/60 without McDavid (all points, not just primary) is a fantastic number given he’s accomplished that mainly with the 3rd tier wingers on a team devoid of offensive wingers.

    GM has said that “long term” he sees Drai as a center – as do I and, I believe, as does the coach. At the same time, it is that GM that has put together a roster devoid of offensive wingers forcing his coach to put Drai on the wing to help create some offence.

    The coach has used Drai at center for stretches and as 1RW for stretches – both have seen success for small stretches but, over the long haul, the team has not been able to win consistently with either – that’s on the GM.

    In a few years, when we have some more offensive talent on the wing (fix the RD first, let the internal development of matriculating prospects fill the offensive wing roles with value contracts), Drai will be able to play center full time.

    Yes, in my opinion, Drai is more proficient on the PP halfboards than McDavid at this stage of their careers. Nugent-Hopkins as well. McDavid will be elite in that area in time, he is not yet currently.

  142. VOR says:

    The hop,

    People are always complaining that I use old data. So I used these data sets and concluded WAR data looks like much of the data of earlier studies on peak goals and peak points. I used these data sets and concluded that within reason there is a pattern. Peak offensive years and peak value years do overlap.

    Best offence and peak WAR occurs around 23 but both are long tailed phenomena, really long tail. There are very few members of either set at ages 22 and younger, then a sharp peak at 23 that trails off over many, many years. Approximately 82% of all surviving players will peak in one metric or the other or both between 23 and 29. 82/18 = 4.555. So the odds, crudely expressed off Leon peaking sometime between 23 and 29, that is during the remainder of his contract, are 4.5 to 1.

    As you read through these two articles and all the links you will see there are a large number of complicating factors. However, there is no debate about three factors

    – there is a sharp performance peak for the population of NHL players between 23 and 24
    – there is a long slow decline from there
    – there are very few players who peak before 23

    Depending which study and which metric you chose and how tightly you couple comparables (how much you limit the data set) you can generate a table of odds for different assumptions, then you can compare assumptions about known players with actual results and weight the table. This gives values between 2.18 to 1 and 7.36 to 1. I decided arbitrarily to stick with 4.5 to 1.

    I just summed up an exceedingly complex process in a few words. If you want to know more I suggest going back to some of the early work linked to in the first article. It is probably much easier to follow, I find it so. Add up the % of players peaking at each age. While your numbers will be different from mine and I would argue more robust the conclusion will be the same. Given what we know about how NHL players age the odds are good Leon ‘s best year(s) are ahead of him.

    Now on to the salary cap which is the next part of the calculation.

  143. BerkhamstedOil says:

    Woodguy v2.0: One quibble:

    I like Drai a ton and am with you he should have been playing C full time from the time he signed his new deal. I know we all had some reservations that Leon could drive his own line, but I think we can bank on him being that piece of the SC puzzle that we need. Am as frustrated at this season’s face plant as most here, but believe key players are there for the heart of McDavid era. While Chia may have inherited some 100point pieces – expect we are saying Hall/Eberle, not sure timeline was ever there. Nurse, Klef and Lars not ready for SC quality D until Hall/Ebs/Nuge cap considerations would come home to roost 2021. Sad fact that D corps development should have come ahead of elite offensive talent – Chicago was lucky enough to have these pieces in the right order – not us. Not a big fan of Chia’s ‘heavy hockey’ approach and Bruinisation of a franchise known for skill and speed, don’t believe there was any way around that timeline. Good news is that Connor, Leon and Klef/Lars here longer term. Would have been good to win one quick, but remember when talk of breaking up Oil in 1982 after loss to Kings and agai in 1983 after loss to NYI. Will keep the faith unless players in McDavid chohort start to be shipped out (Klef, Jesse etc.)

    That said:

    Drais’s 5v5 pts/60
    With McDavid 3.02
    Without McDavid 2.23

    Drai’s 5v5 Primary pts/60
    With McDavid 2.34
    Without McDavid 1.71

    Drai’s played 358 minutes with McDavid and 350.5 without him 5v5 so when you say “not riding McD’s coattails!” its not quite true.

    His 5v5 results away from McDavid are very good, especially considering his line mates, but he has enough time with McDavid this year that we can’t look at his total results on their own.

    Drai’s results away from McDavid are at a 1st line rate, and that’s something this team needs badly.

    The fact that McLellan has to be forced to play them apart is galling.

  144. VOR says:

    The hop,

    This gives you a history of the cap:

    https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/NHL_salary_cap

  145. JimmyV1965 says:

    Gret99zky: Lou may decide otherwise.

    Matthews is an RFA.Lou can wait him out.

    Or wait for the mystic offer sheet.

    One things for sure, Lou will not be bidding against himself during the Matthews’ negotiation.

    I’m on record stating the Drai contract was an overpay, maybe by $1.5 max. An overpay, but certainly not one that hurts the team in a meaningful way. I’m not trying to be a jerk here, but sometimes people can underestimate how challenging these contract negotiations can be.

    You think it behooves Lou to wait out Mathews? Are you saying wait another year for salaries to rise even higher? Now there’s the Tavares benchmark and even more contracts. I will absolutely be flabbergasted if Mathews isn’t signed this summer. It would be folly to do otherwise.

    Do you want to be the GM playing hardball with Mathews? The same Mathews who has clearly shown he doesn’t take crap from anyone by playing his draft year in Europe. This stuff might look easy from this end, but it clearly isn’t.

  146. leadfarmer says:

    VOR: I went on record early this past summer as believing Leon should be between $6.5 million and $7.5million over 8 years and that a bridge was a stupid idea because it was likely to cost more in the long run. I argued for $7.5 as the likely outcome. I got some serious blowback for overpaying.

    That said, I have been trying to figure out fair value and likely outcomes if the Oilers had gone with a bridge deal for 3 years at $5.5 million per year. It still strikes me as being Russian roulette. Just Leon’s current performance (which I get being worth $6.3 million) in three years would drive a 5 year deal worth $8.5 million or more.

    Let me know splaying that. The cap is going to be approaching $90 million by then and top forty salaries are projecting to average $8,000,000 and top 20 centers are headed for $9 million. Leon on a crappy team, centering uninspiring line mates is in terms of points per 60 and EV strength points per 60 a top 20 center and that is with the concussion. So he still would be getting his $8.5 million, if not more, 3 years from now.

    So in that analysis Leon is going to be overpaid by no more than $9,000,000 over the 8 years.

    But imagine if like many players he has his best year at 23 or 24 and that it spikes at the average peak of 12% above the average of the two preceding years. Now Leon is negotiating a new contract coming off what is more than a ppg season as a full time center. That would make him top 10 among centers while playing 2C. And he is coming up on UFA. Now the Oilers are screwed. $11+ million per year seems very likely. So a total over the 8 years of $71.5 million versus the $68 million of the current contract.

    I have come to think fair value based on all the risks and unknowns was probably somewhere around $7,750,000 over 8 years. And that the Oilers overpaid by $6,000,000 or a good fourth line role player on a very friendly contract. Or if you like a new Juhar Kharia every couple of years.

    Perhaps more importantly it also, along with Connor’s contract, determined the likely timing of the window of serious Stanley Cup contention. There was this year and then it closes for 4 years or so. Depending how fast the cap increases of course. I don’t know how to externalize that cost and that cost definitely doesn’t result solely or even significantly from Leon’s contract but rather the Oilers overall cap management strategies and the cumulative effect of contract negotiations. But to fans it will be a huge big deal.

    One thing people forget to realize is if Drai signed the contract that the oil gave to the previous group, by that I mean the standard 6 mil a year that Nuge Ebs and Hall got in last offseason dollars that equaled 7.2 million. So I very much doubted that the contract was going to be less than 7 million. Now Chia should have put his foot in the sand at 7.5 million but that 1mil isn’t the worst thing in the world. Now about the other contracts he signed

  147. jtblack says:

    Gayfish:
    Eichel got 10. Matthews will get similar. It will be well south of connor. They are in different leagues. The question is whether the salary gap between McDavid and others overcomes the talent gap.

    I think Matthews, Tavares, Karlsson, Seguun will all be over $11 mil per year.

  148. Pescador says:

    Woogie63:
    In Canmore this afternoon … Hometown hockey no Beer Tent?

    Stupid families

  149. SwedishPoster says:

    The Oil are doing what bottom in the standings team do; find ways to lose.

    The Russel contract is really limiting the ability to switch up the D as I think trading any of Klef, Nurse or Larsson would be a mistake. Sekera may also prove to be an anchor if he can’t come back properly from his acl injury.

    Drai is a center.

    Slepy against Anaheim looked like a player, he’s at his best when he swings down low and carries the puck up ice, trying the difficult play at times, instead of playing overly simplistic which he tends to do, the sense is that he’s been overcoached ever since his KHL days to the point where he’s just pure meat and potatoes most nights. Not sure that’s how you get the most out of him. Against SJ he, earning it the night before, was put as the trigger in the top 6 and was anonymous, not near the poise from the night before. Might be best suited as the puck carrier and skill guy on a bottom line until he’s confident enough to do it higher up in the batting order. Or they can try him on left wing where he played for most of his career before coming to NA.

    Two frustrating games for McDavid. I get why you would put Drai on his wing on occasion to give some real skill to play with and keep his joie de vivre up, but it’s a bit of a waste using Drai there for long stretches. Hopefully Pulju can find more consistency in his game to give him a proper winger.

    Maroon has just completely lost it the last few weeks. Is he tanking his trading value? Weird since he’d be tanking his next contract as well. More likely there’s something else going on but something is up, he’s just a mess out there.

    Missing the playoffs sucks.

    Lucic will never score again.

  150. meanashell11 says:

    Oilman99: After watching LD’s performance last night how can you Make a statement like that. Get your head out of the sand.

    I think you missed my point.

  151. meanashell11 says:

    JimmyV1965: I think he was joking.

    Thank you!

  152. JimmyV1965 says:

    jtblack: I think Matthews, Tavares, Karlsson, Seguun will all be over $11 mil per year.

    I think Mathews and Karlsson will be higher than Tavares and Seguin.

  153. OriginalPouzar says:

    OriginalPouzar:
    Samorukov with an assist and 8, yes 8 shots on net in a 3-2 loss – that is alot of shots for a d-man.

    Niagra got shutout by Windsor – just a couple shots on net for Maksimov.

    With Ryan Merkley suspended for 3 games, Samorukov is stepping up.

    He’s going to explode next year and its going to be amazing!

  154. Oilman99 says:

    OriginalPouzar: 2.34 without McDavid is actually better than I thought – that’s a fantastic number – a large part of his time at center were with 3rd line wingers (3rd line Oiler wingers, tweeners really).

    Just imagine what he could do with two bonafide wingers for a whole year.

  155. Jethro Tull says:

    I like how we’re squabbling over how much more money we should be giving millionaires.

  156. Wilde says:

    Lowetide:

    When I read the comments about Yamamoto in daily threads, I wonder why he has become a target and further wonder if anyone will stand up for him.

    I’m gone for a few days and this is being asked?!

    🙂

  157. VOR says:

    The hop,

    We can build a fair value scoring prediction for Leon and then calculate odds of his chances of his exceeding it.

    I started by working out an annual growth rate for the cap since its inception. Approximately 5%.

    So if that continued the cap in 2024/2025 would be $106 million.

    What percentage of the cap would $8,5 million be? 8%.

    What would that be today? 8% *75 = $6,000,000.

    It turns out there are 58 players currently making more than that in the NHL .

    So how are they doing?

    We can go back in time doing the same sort of calculation. Working out 8% of the cap and seeing what those players did.

    The truth is Leon doesn’t have to be all world to be worth 8% of the cap. It comes to 54 points a season. 15 goals 39 assists. Yikes do GMs make some stupid contract calls.

    The question becomes how about 11.33% of cap players [Leon’s current % of cap] and 9.66% [the projected average cap hit %]?

  158. Alpine says:

    Moving Leon seems like it could be smart if you get a top 6 W, and a top 4 RD, both preferably young. But I’m not sure if there’s a team out there willing to give that up. We need a winger for both McDavid and Drai (or Nuge). We still need to get another top 6 W if you move Drai or Nuge for one, and I’m less confident in Nuge putting up offense by himself long term if said acquired W is meant to play with 97.

    Man, it’s been beaten to death by all of us, but keeping 14 would have really helped the balance picture out. We basically need to acquire a player of his ilk to play with our top Cs but also take some pressure off 98 and Yama instead of relying on them to be the sole offensive spark on the flanks. We don’t even have an Eberle-lite on this roster right now.

  159. Seismic Source says:

    I’m in LA right now. Thought about going to the Oiler games vs the Kings and Ducks. Glad I didn’t.

  160. Gret99zky says:

    JimmyV1965,

    I think if Chiarelli was as shrewd as Lou, Drai would have come in at around $7M.

    Tavares is an UFA so he has more leverage than Matthews.

    Matthews is an RFA and so the GM has a little more control.

    My point is, I think that Matthews will sign for less than the $13.5M (which was what I was responding to) and certainly less than $13M which may or may not be what Tavares signs for.

    I doubt Lou waits so long that it damages the relationship between the Leafs and Matthews.

    However, it is not Lou’s style to give players blank cheques or rush to get things done.

    When Treliving signed Gaudreau, they negotiated in good faith and came to a very reasonable agreement in October, despite Gaudreau’s deal ending in July. No posturing, no rush.

    I expect the same from Lou when it’s time to sign Matthews and the rest of the RFA’s in TO.

  161. VOR says:

    The hop,

    So the forwards and centers who make more than 11.33% are on pace to score 79 points per 82 games this year. Leon is on pace to score 79 points (78.76) this season. So while not a value contract yet it certainly isn’t a bad contract.

    If we use the likely average % cap hit then players at or above that are on pace to average 68 points per 82 games.

    Thus, what are the odds of Leon averaging more than 68 points per 82 games?

  162. JimmyV1965 says:

    Before the team makes a decision on Chia, I think they should ask themselves how much of the current success by the Bruins can be traced back to our GM. If many of the pieces there now are directly influenced by Chia, you can make a strong case for keeping him, maybe with some restrictions when it comes to negotiating, something he is clearly not good at. If only a few of the pieces there have been influenced by Chia, then the strategy going forward is pretty clear. I don’t know. Maybe it’s not as simple as that.

  163. Alpine says:

    I’m less bothered nowadays by Leon making 8.5 having known that older players than him got 7.8 and 8 (Kuznetsov and Johansen), and superstar Cs are getting north of 10 now. We were in a weird spot with him having broken out so soon, and at such a young age. There isn’t many great comparable to him, and the ones that are comparable signed before their breakout or pre-lockout when things were a bit different. Stamkos got only 7.5 after back to back 90+ seasons, but kept his early UFA years, for example.

    I still believe his last season was a bit overrated due to all the 97 time and his playoff performance probably shouldn’t have been such a large factor, but we’ll start to see more higher cap hits soon when more 21 year olds with Leons’ numbers arrive.

    Had Leon scored like this last year with less 97 time I would have been more receptive of the cap hit, so it’s more that it’s a hindsight thing where I wish he was on a bargain deal. Not being a bargain is fine, and we should remember that. Simply having someone who is roughly market value at 8.5 M means you have a really, really good player.

    Anyways, we will likely end up paying Nurse something closer to recent comparable like Mike Matheson at 4.8 Mil or Jacob Slavin at 5.3 Mil, rather than the customary ~4 mil x 6-7 yrs given to top 4 D in years past. I believe Nurse, like Draisaitl, won’t be a bargain right away, but having a defenseman worth close to 5 Mil on the market is never a bad thing.

  164. VOR says:

    For those of you following along, Leon Is not overpaid now relative to other similar and higher % of cap contract players.

    His best years are likely ahead of him.

    Because of cap inflation the % of the cap Leon’s contract will consume is falling. He I is on pace to be no more than the 40th highest cap hit in 2024/2025 and possibly as low as 60th. That is based on the average annual distribution of cap dollars over the last few years. Forwards and centers paid in this range right now are averaging far fewer points than forwards and centers whose cap hit is in the top ten. Thus the standard of point production Leon needs to hit each year to be a value contract is going to fall.

    Based on all of which and more I am setting the odds of his contract being a value contract – better than average performance for similar or higher % cap hits) – at some point in the contract at 9:1. I am, I think, underestimating.

  165. deardylan says:

    Lowetide! Look forward to hearing some new stories created on your roadtrip. Laughed when I read this comment: Then I’m going to find Lodi and see if there’s a bar band in that town who can play the entire CCR catalogue. When I am shopping for heaven, I will definitely ask to have that bar band there too!

    Back to Oilers

    In the meantime enjoyed Mourinho comments after a recent match and can use this for this rollercoaster season through the funhouse/house of horrors and ain’t over yet.

    “Mourinho’s side remain second, 16 points adrift of Manchester City, but the Portuguese claimed to draw consolation from his old mentor, the former Newcastle manager Sir Bobby Robson…

    “After a few defeats Sir Bobby once told me: ‘Don’t feel so sad, think about the happiness of the other team”

  166. Alpine says:

    JimmyV1965:
    Before the team makes a decision on Chia, I think they should ask themselves how much of the current success by the Bruins can be traced back to our GM.If many of the pieces there now are directly influenced by Chia, you can make a strong case for keeping him, maybe with some restrictions when it comes to negotiating, something he is clearly not good at. If only a few of the pieces there have been influenced by Chia, then the strategy going forward is pretty clear. I don’t know. Maybe it’s not as simple as that.

    An interesting point to raise. Off the top of my head, Pastrnak and Heinen were his draft picks, in addition to Spooner, Bjork, and Grzelyck. How much of those picks were due to his influence, I’m not sure. He would have the final call, but so does every GM. He also signed Krug and Kevan Miller as free agents.

    The players making an impact from the 2015 and 2016 drafts (DeBrusk, McAvoy, Carlo) were the responsibility of our current assistant GM, Keith Gretzky.

    It seems only draft picks are the lasting imprint of Chia in Boston, as well as the long term contracts of Bergeron, Krejci, Chara and Rask. No one he acquired through trade or free agency (not including ELCs) is still with the team. That last point is a bit worrisome.

  167. Georges says:

    Wilde: I’m gone for a few days and this is being asked?!

    Does Yamamoto need someone to stand up for him? Wow, I haven’t been following that but I’m in.

    It was a mistake for the HC to break camp with the idea that Yamamoto should play in the top 6 (or even make the roster). From what I remember, you just don’t see that outcome with late first round picks. But that was just one of the curious and bad bets by the HC to start the season. The ho-hum offense in his 9-game audition says nothing about the player.

    From what I’ve seen, Yamamoto is going to be fantastic. Particularly on a team that has CMD, Drai, and Nuge at C.

    (PC should know by now not to sign Maroon if it will cost him Nuge. And PC should trade no one… short of a ridiculous offer from the other party. Do nothing until the new HC is in place.)

  168. leadfarmer says:

    Wilde: I’m gone for a few days and this is being asked?!

    Oilers fans deserve the Oilers. The kid got himself drafted into this mess and has done nothing but work hard. If I had a kid as much as I like this team I would not want him to be drafted by this team.
    I hope for his sake we just trade him and let him thrive elsewhere

  169. VOR says:

    Georges: Does Yamamoto need someone to stand up for him? Wow, I haven’t been following that but I’m in.

    It was a mistake for the HC to break camp with the idea that Yamamoto should play in the top 6 (or even make the roster). From what I remember, you just don’t see that outcome with late first round picks. But that was just one of the curious and bad bets by the HC to start the season. The ho-hum offense in his 9-game audition says nothing about the player.

    From what I’ve seen, Yamamoto is going to be fantastic. Particularly on a team that has CMD, Drai, and Nuge at C.

    (PC should know by now not to sign Maroon if it will cost him Nuge. And PC should trade no one… short of a ridiculous offer from the other party. Do nothing until the new HC is in place.)

    I am with Georges on this one.

    The big argument seems to be he is too small.

    This is one of more than a dozen studies that say size does not matter:

    http://nhlnumbers.com/2012/6/8/does-size-matter-in-the-nhl-draft

    Kailer had the highest NHLP in last year’s draft and the third highest NHLE He was a steal at 22.

  170. Scungilli Slushy says:

    Georges: Does Yamamoto need someone to stand up for him? Wow, I haven’t been following that but I’m in.

    It was a mistake for the HC to break camp with the idea that Yamamoto should play in the top 6 (or even make the roster). From what I remember, you just don’t see that outcome with late first round picks. But that was just one of the curious and bad bets by the HC to start the season. The ho-hum offense in his 9-game audition says nothing about the player.

    From what I’ve seen, Yamamoto is going to be fantastic. Particularly on a team that has CMD, Drai, and Nuge at C.

    (PC should know by now not to sign Maroon if it will cost him Nuge. And PC should trade no one… short of a ridiculous offer from the other party. Do nothing until the new HC is in place.)

    There is no reason to bring back Letestu or Cammalleri either.

    A big problem has been that the vets aren’t scoring OR playing strong D.

    It would be far better to trade them for prospects or picks. And sign they readily available role players to proper contracts. They don’t have the legs or hands and it won’t get better for them. That’s not to say they can’t find a role elsewhere, I just don’t think they help the Oilers.

    Strome is another heavy legged player that while a good hockey player, just doesn’t have the spark for top 6. At the right price for his limited offense over the last few years he can help in the bottom 6 and maybe at 3C.

    But he has to become stronger defensively. He’s at a career turning point IMO. I’m not sure players with inconsistent scoring averaging on the lower side in the last few years are going to get paid a lot.

    I’m sure Benning isn’t happy how he paid Gagner and the term given he can’t be relied on for hard minutes and doesn’t score that much unless everything is geared to his favour.

    As it should be complementary players are going to make less and the cream more.

  171. Gayfish says:

    VOR: I am with Georges on this one.

    The big argument seems to be he is too small.

    This is one of more than a dozen studies that say size does not matter:

    http://nhlnumbers.com/2012/6/8/does-size-matter-in-the-nhl-draft

    Kailer had the highest NHLP in last year’s draft and the third highest NHLE He was a steal at 22.

    I’ll quibble with that a bit. For one, odds are already low (20ish% drafted make it) in a small data set, which make statistically significant differences within the subset difficult. Secondly, small players often miss being drafted period, and thus their number gets inflated. For example, Holmberg was undrafted, while Ewanyk was despite one being a markedly better player at the time of draft. This means the small players drafted are of a better tier. Think curving a grad school class vs a 1st year class.

    I think there can be value taking players who are undersized, but it is asinine to claim that it has no effect. Similar to the stupidity of the Rickibox being the only important aspect of being a dman.

    Not to mention that Yamamoto is that lonely dot on the far left of the first two graphs (Statistically speaking-this is old data). He is an extreme outlier in terms of size. Rooting for him though.

  172. OmJo says:

    Georges,

    I don’t think I’d mind Boucher.

    Also, please keep these coach related posts coming!

  173. who says:

    SwedishPoster:
    The Oil are doing what bottom in the standings team do; find ways to lose.

    The Russel contract is really limiting the ability to switch up the D as I think trading any of Klef, Nurse or Larsson would be a mistake. Sekera may also prove to be an anchor if he can’t come back properly from his acl injury.

    Drai is a center.

    Slepy against Anaheim looked like a player, he’s at his best when he swings down low and carries the puck up ice, trying the difficult play at times, instead of playing overly simplistic which he tends to do, the sense is that he’s been overcoached ever since his KHL days to the point where he’s just pure meat and potatoes most nights. Not sure that’s how you get the most out of him. Against SJ he, earning it the night before, was put as the trigger in the top 6 and was anonymous, not near the poise from the night before. Might be best suited as the puck carrier and skill guy on a bottom line until he’s confident enough to do it higher up in the batting order. Or they can try him on left wing where he played for most of his career before coming to NA.

    Two frustrating games for McDavid. I get why you would put Drai on his wing on occasion to give some real skill to play with and keep his joie de vivre up, but it’s a bit of a waste using Drai there for long stretches. Hopefully Pulju can find more consistency in his game to give him a proper winger.

    Maroon has just completely lost it the last few weeks. Is he tanking his trading value? Weird since he’d be tanking his next contract as well. More likely there’s something else going on but something is up, he’s just a mess out there.

    Missing the playoffs sucks.

    Lucic will never score again.

    Very astute observations. Particularly about Slepeshev. Maybe he should be the right winger with Strome and Kharia.
    The thing is, when he swings low, the dmen have to give him the puck. Love watching him carry the puck through the neutral ice with speed. He is better at this than any winger on the team,

  174. OriginalPouzar says:

    Yamamoto up against Everett and Carter Hart last night – they shut out Benson and the Giants last night.

    Check that: Hart with the night off.

  175. who says:

    JimmyV1965:
    Before the team makes a decision on Chia, I think they should ask themselves how much of the current success by the Bruins can be traced back to our GM.If many of the pieces there now are directly influenced by Chia, you can make a strong case for keeping him, maybe with some restrictions when it comes to negotiating, something he is clearly not good at. If only a few of the pieces there have been influenced by Chia, then the strategy going forward is pretty clear. I don’t know. Maybe it’s not as simple as that.

    Wasn’t Keith Gretzky the guy responsible for the last few drafts in Boston?

  176. OmJo says:

    Alpine: An interesting point to raise. Off the top of my head, Pastrnak and Heinen were his draft picks, in addition to Spooner, Bjork, and Grzelyck. How much of those picks were due to his influence, I’m not sure. He would have the final call, but so does every GM. He also signed Krug and Kevan Miller as free agents.

    The players making an impact from the 2015 and 2016 drafts (DeBrusk, McAvoy, Carlo) were the responsibility of our current assistant GM, Keith Gretzky.

    It seems only draft picks are the lasting imprint of Chia in Boston, as well as the long term contracts of Bergeron, Krejci, Chara and Rask. No one he acquired through trade or free agency (not including ELCs) is still with the team. That last point is a bit worrisome.

    How much scouting do general managers do? Should they recieve credit for draft picks?

    I’m not just talking about Chiarelli here, but in general. Because poor drafting gets the scouts in the hot seat.

  177. Scungilli Slushy says:

    who: Very astute observations. Particularly about Slepeshev. Maybe he should be the right winger with Strome and Kharia.
    The thing is, when he swings low, the dmen have to give him the puck. Love watching him carry the puck through the neutral ice with speed. He is better at this than any winger on the team,

    Swedish has mentioned Slepy likes LW. I think they should play him there and get him going in what favours him most.

  178. thehop says:

    Lowetide,

    So is anyone going to lambaste Willis for writing an article on exactly what I’ve been ranting about here since Christmas?

    Full disclosure. I didn’t reading the whole article so I’m not sure what his conclusion was but thank fuck someone else is entertaining the idea.

  179. Gayfish says:

    OmJo: How much scouting do general managers do? Should they recieve credit for draft picks?

    I’m not just talking about Chiarelli here, but in general. Because poor drafting gets the scouts in the hot seat.

    They should do 0, and shouldn’t be blamed for the draft. However, there is a strong case to be made that they make decisions they shouldn’t. Moroz, Ewanyk, and others suggest GMs overruling scouts. That doesn’t just happen in stupidville either.

  180. thehop says:

    VOR,

    Blown away by your ability to analyse, interpret and discuss what appears to be a contentious issue.

    In light of reading what you have written, perhaps the possibility of that contract being a value contract is more realistic than I thought.

    Well done! And thank you for taking the time and for considering my question.

  181. VOR says:

    Gayfish: I’ll quibble with that a bit. For one, odds are already low (20ish% drafted make it) in a small data set, which make statistically significant differences within the subset difficult. Secondly, small players often miss being drafted period, and thus their number gets inflated. For example, Holmberg was undrafted, while Ewanyk was despite one being a markedly better player at the time of draft. This means the small players drafted are of a better tier. Think curving a grad school class vs a 1st year class.

    I think there can be value taking players who are undersized, but it is asinine to claim that it has no effect. Similar to the stupidity of the Rickibox being the only important aspect of being a dman.

    Not to mention that Yamamoto is that lonely dot on the far left of the first two graphs (Statistically speaking-this is old data). He is an extreme outlier in terms of size. Rooting for him though.

    1. I have literally spent months trying to figure out size related draft strategies. At the top of the draft (top ten) height correlates with GvT for forwards and centers with a Pearson r = .169. Weight in the same data set (all players drafted from 1979 to 2016) weight is negatively correlated with GvT with a Pearson r = -.043. Through the remainder of the first round there is no correlation of height, weight or BMI with GvT.

    I have written elsewhere about the strong correlation of average size with future positive outcomes in the second round. Both small (more than 1SD) and large (more than 1SD) players under perform in relation to their average sized colleagues from the second round. I believe, and still can’t prove, that there is an early round bias against average (delta from average less than 1SD) players.

    2. I agree completely that because of selection bias the smaller players (a full SD below normal) who are drafted are almost certainly more skilled than the population of all drafted players. This skill advantage played out in large data sets offsets the negative impacts of size.

    3. Being an outlier doesn’t mean you aren’t part of the dataset.

    4. It is slightly older data. Since it was collected and analyzed hockey has gotten younger and faster. To the extent that bigger isn’t faster, more agile, quicker thinking, or more skilled this study would be even truer done today.

    The result of all of which is as a rule of thumb I feel pretty safe saying size doesn’t predict GvT, TOI, Goals, Points, or Games played. Feel free to link to a study that shows it does.

  182. VOR says:

    Gayfish: They should do 0, and shouldn’t be blamed for the draft. However, there is a strong case to be made that they make decisions they shouldn’t. Moroz, Ewanyk, and others suggest GMs overruling scouts. That doesn’t just happen in stupidville either.

    I am completely with you on this one. They shouldn’t do any scouting. A GMs focus is far too scattered and their motivations far too complex for direct talent evaluation. They end up making decisions for drafting players based on factors other than performance, skill, and measurable psychographics. The result is crappy outcomes. Get a group of scouts in a room and ask them about GMs scouting and you will hear swear words and combinations of swear words you never knew existed.

  183. JimmyV1965 says:

    OmJo: How much scouting do general managers do? Should they recieve credit for draft picks?

    I’m not just talking about Chiarelli here, but in general. Because poor drafting gets the scouts in the hot seat.

    I’m not saying we should keep Chia, but he’s responsible for hiring the scouts so good amateur drafting should be a feather in his cap. Wasn’t there a time when the Oilers hired ex-players and hangers on as scouts? Hence our abysmal draft record.

  184. OriginalPouzar says:

    thehop:
    Lowetide,

    So is anyone going to lambaste Willis for writing an article on exactly what I’ve been ranting about here since Christmas?

    Full disclosure. I didn’t reading the whole article so I’m not sure what his conclusion was but thank fuck someone else is entertaining the idea.

    He wrote the article because of the asanine suggestion on HMIC last night and not because he thinks it’s a reasonable idea and his conclusion is that it would be a poor idea.

  185. JD_Wry says:

    It took a lot longer than I thought it would:

    https://streamable.com/xhpy4

  186. Georges says:

    Scungilli Slushy: There is no reason to bring back Letestu or Cammalleri either.

    A big problem has been that the vets aren’t scoring OR playing strong D.

    It would be far better to trade them for prospects or picks. And sign they readily available role players to proper contracts. They don’t have the legs or hands and it won’t get better for them. That’s not to say they can’t find a role elsewhere, I just don’t think they help the Oilers.

    Strome is another heavy legged player that while a good hockey player, just doesn’t have the spark for top 6. At the right price for his limited offense over the last few years he can help in the bottom 6 and maybe at 3C.

    But he has to become stronger defensively. He’s at a career turning point IMO. I’m not sure players with inconsistent scoring averaging on the lower side in the last few years are going to get paid a lot.

    I’m sure Benning isn’t happy how he paid Gagner and the term given he can’t be relied on for hard minutes and doesn’t score that much unless everything is geared to his favour.

    As it should be complementary players are going to make less and the cream more.

    Right. I forgot about the UFA’s. (I like Auvitu though. He seems to have some kind of magic where things go his way when he takes the stage, despite the HC’s efforts to push him into the deep background.)

    The teams that think they’re contenders may overpay. WPG, TBL, STL, NSH, WSH. Also teams under pressure to make the playoffs, like CAR, CBJ. Lots of possibilities. We don’t need to do anything. Except set the price high. No better time to win a trade.

    Also, a side effect of a bad season is it takes some of the negotiating power away from the RFA’s. You can and probably should bridge everyone for cheap. No one’s shown anything that merits more. Including Nurse. Losing a Nurse negotiation is just silly.

    I hope they don’t mess up with Slepy now that other teams have declined PC’s offer. I’m guessing/hoping the next HC will see more in him and get more out of him than the current HC. All our young guys need a second opinion.

  187. OriginalPouzar says:

    Yamamoto with a goal and an assist in the third period to bring the Chiefs within one in the dying minutes.

  188. Gayfish says:

    JimmyV1965: I’m not saying we should keep Chia, but he’s responsible for hiring the scouts so good amateur drafting should be a feather in his cap. Wasn’t there a time when the Oilers hired ex-players and hangers on as scouts? Hence our abysmal draft record.

    That’s the think. Even under Stu MacGregor, it was like good pick, good pick, Travis Ewanyk, good pick, good pick. So there’s something fishy there… I don’t think our picks for the most part were actually that bad. I think the issue has been more on the development side as, as several prospects were fast tracked to the AHL to be buried.

    Like many things in this organization problems at the top make evaluating other things difficult. For example, how does TMac employ this team if he has 2 top 6 RW? Maybe I don’t agree with what he’s doing, but he has his shoelaces tied together.

  189. JimmyV1965 says:

    thehop:
    Lowetide,

    So is anyone going to lambaste Willis for writing an article on exactly what I’ve been ranting about here since Christmas?

    Full disclosure. I didn’t reading the whole article so I’m not sure what his conclusion was but thank fuck someone else is entertaining the idea.

    I should clarify my position on my a Drai trade. If you can get enuf pieces back, I’m all for it. I just find it almost impossibly unlikely that you will recoup fair value.

    Even if you made a trade like Aho and Pesce, I’m not sure it’s a good deal. It stings cap wise too. Between the two of them, they will make possibly up to $4 mill more in cap. So even something that could possibly end up being fair value, ends up costing too much.

  190. anjinsan says:

    Few if any GMs have blown opportunity like Chiarelli, ever.

    What makes Chiarelli unique is the contracting. His contracts on the whole hamstring the team for years.

    All there is to talk about regarding the Oilers because of Chiarelli is dinky think.

    The only thing that can save the Oilers is massive luck at the draft (or another GM being as stupid a Chiarelli was trading for Reinhart) and the funny thing is Chiarelli squandered massive luck. What a bozo.

  191. JimmyV1965 says:

    Gayfish: That’s the think. Even under Stu MacGregor, it was like good pick, good pick, Travis Ewanyk, good pick, good pick. So there’s something fishy there… I don’t think our picks for the most part were actually that bad.I think the issue has been more on the development side as, as several prospects were fast tracked to the AHL to be buried.

    Like many things in this organization problems at the top make evaluating other things difficult. For example, how does TMac employ this team if he has 2 top 6 RW? Maybe I don’t agree with what he’s doing, but he has his shoelaces tied together.

    Sorry, but I have to disagree. Our drafting before Chia was wretched. We simply wasted second round picks. The last time we drafted a meaningful second rounder was 2002. The rest have either been traded or failures. I’m not saying our development has been great either. It sucks too.

  192. JimmyV1965 says:

    OriginalPouzar:
    Yamamoto with a goal and an assist in the third period to bring the Chiefs within one in the dying minutes.

    I’m definitely on the Yammer train. Still want him in the AHL min. 40 games.

  193. OriginalPouzar says:

    At this point I lean towards him going to the AHL but it’s also 100% meaningless – his readiness for the NHL will be determined by Yamamoto and his performance at camp. It’s impossible to say which league will be the proper one for him In 8 months.

  194. Scungilli Slushy says:

    Georges: I hope they don’t mess up with Slepy now that other teams have declined PC’s offer. I’m guessing/hoping the next HC will see more in him and get more out of him than the current HC. All our young guys need a second opinion.

    If he’s up for it he can be a bottom 6 player, a very good one, and make decent money.

    But again the D side of the game has to be there. Of any of the young guys he could be an untapped top 6. He’s running out of time, but with his skill set it could be that things have been in his way, including not getting the better centres like Cags.

    It is quite possible the trade email was driven by Slepy asking out if they aren’t going to play him, like Leivo.

  195. JimmyV1965 says:

    OriginalPouzar:
    At this point I lean towards him going to the AHL but it’s also 100% meaningless – his readiness for the NHL will be determined by Yamamoto and his performance at camp.It’s impossible to say which league will be the proper one for him In 8 months.

    I would agree with you if it’s a team like the Bolts. They have a proven development model and know when they can slot a guy in. But our development model is so flawed I think you have to err on the side of caution. Just look at JP. They have totally flubbed his development.

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