G55 2017-18: Panthers at Oilers

The Edmonton Oilers return from California with yet another confirmation that this team, as constructed, isn’t good enough for the playoffs. As other teams gear up for the postseason, they will say goodbye to teammates at the deadline and some will say goodbye to their NHL careers at season’s end. Losing teams sewer NHL careers like hell won’t have it. On this blog, we’re moving on. Beginning today, we talk of summer.

THE ATHLETIC!

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 SOUND AND VISION, YEAR OVER YEAR

  • February 2016: 2-3-0, goal differential -3 (4 points)
  • February 2017: 2-3-0, goal differential -4 (4 points)
  • February 2018: 1-3-1, goal differential -3 (3 points)
  • February 11, 2016: Edmonton 5, Toronto 2 (Source)
  • February 16, 2016: Edmonton 6, Philadelphia 3 (Source)

The Oilers wins are still important (GM & Coach won’t survive a long losing streak, although it may be over for one or both anyway) but we’re likely to see odd line and pairings combinations now as Edmonton showcases their tradeable talent.

AFTER 54, YEAR OVER YEAR

  • Oilers 15-16: 21-28-5, goal differential -32 (47 points)
  • Oilers 16-17: 28-18-8, goal differential +15 (64 points)
  • Oilers 17-18: 23-27-4, goal differential -26 (50 points)
  • February 9, 2016: New Jersey 2, Edmonton 1 (Source)
  • February 5, 2017: Edmonton 1, Montreal 0 (Source)

The list of needs is great, goaltending was a problem this year and special teams a train wreck. There’s some cap room and the team could move a center and a lefty blue.

WHAT TO EXPECT FROM FEBRUARY

  • At home to: Colorado, Tampa Bay (Expected 0-1-1) (Actual 1-0-1)
  • On the road to: Los AngelesAnaheimSan Jose (Expected 1-1-1) (Actual 0-3-0)
  • At home to: Florida (Expected 1-0-0) (Actual 0-0-0)
  • On the road to: Vegas, Arizona, Colorado (Expected 2-1-0) (Actual 0-0-0)
  • At home to: Boston, Colorado (Expected 1-1-0) (Actual 0-0-0)
  • On the road to: Los Angeles, Anaheim, San Jose (Expected 0-2-1) (Actual 0-0-0)
  • Overall expected result: 5-6-3, 13 points in 14 games
  • Current results: 1-3-1, three points in five games

There are a couple of winnable games this week, Oilers often have trouble getting up for games against less than stellar opponents. It’s also true that some opponents will be pulling the chute on winning but we’re not there yet. Florida and Arizona should be wins this week.

POSSIBLE OFFSEASON ROSTER

Can’t make it work. You need six more forwards, one of whom is on a skill line and another on the third line. If the Oilers fill the depth holes internally, the following players could see the NHL in 2018-19 (all numbers via CapFriendly):

  • 3R Kailer Yamamoto, who would make $1.155 million including bonuses.
  • 4L Drake Caggiula, we’ll estimate his new deal at $1.2 million.
  • 5R Iiro Pakarinen, we’ll estimate his new deal at $750,000.
  • 4C Brad Malone, he’ll make $650,000 in 2018-19.
  • 5C Mitch Callahan, he’ll make $700,000 in 2018-19.

All-in, that means the Oilers will have less than $2 million for the No. 1 left-wing on the roster. Can’t be done. As we have discussed many times, that means one of Oscar Klefbom, Ryan Nugent-Hopkins or the first-round pick would be heading out. The only two outs are grabbing another Patrick Maroon for Patrick Maroon or Mark Letestu at the deadline, winning the right to draft one of those insane skill wingers at No. 2 or No. 3 overall, winning the lottery outright (allowing a trade of LHD easily), or someone to release their no-movement clause (likely Sekera). Peter Chiarelli has boxed himself in based on what I can see, perhaps he has an out that is not known to us. Seems unlikely.

Best to bet IR, but Leivo would be an interesting bet for Edmonton. This club badly needs value contracts for next season and Leivo has done some fine work in a part-time role. There are less than 30 games left in the season, we should see Jesse Puljujarvi, Jujhar Khaira and Anton Slepyshev in every game. If Slepyshev doesn’t fit the coach, then maybe he’s the guy heading out for Leivo. I’ll tell you though, I think Slepyshev can play.

LOWDOWN WITH LOWETIDE

A busy morning and a fluid show in terms of guests. All starts at 10, TSN1260, expect we’ll be adding a CFL guest to discuss free agency. Scheduled to appear:

  • Pierre Lebrun, TSN and The Athletic. Trade deadline rumors heating up!
  • Jason Gregor, TSN1260. CFL free agency, Oilers.

10-1260 text, @Lowetide on twitter.

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390 Responses to "G55 2017-18: Panthers at Oilers"

Newer Comments »
  1. flyfish1168 says:

    LT your chart on CAP space availability to keep RNH looks almost impossible. I will be sad to see him go before PC. IF it is Sekera we would be selling low again

  2. texmex says:

    I have a feeling the GM of the Oilers (whoever that is this summer) finds a way to move Lucic. I know he has a NMC, just a feeling. With that being said, after the last couple of summers, who the hell knows what the GM of this team will do. He might trade RNH for Lucic 2.0.

    Lucic to team X with 25% retained? Is Lucic’s contract more palatable for another team @ 4.5M per?

  3. thehop says:

    I love it…

    Rishaug is on the radio right now, ranting about how Kypreos was out to lunch for suggesting the Oilers trade Draisaitl. Willis is mulling it over on the Athletic.

    Look at the roster LT posted above and tell me that it’s not something the Oilers shouldn’t consider.

    I’ve been posting the idea trading Draisaitl here for the better part of a month. He’s a great player. Might be on of the best in the future. The Oilers need a balanced roster to win the cup. As it stands and clearly going forward ( see roster above) this is not possible with a 20million+ first line.

    An RNH trade will not fill the roster holes. Draisaitl would.

    Love the player. But I wouldn’t shed a tear if he was traded for a bona fide 1# dman, and a couple of top nine wingers.

  4. Lowetide says:

    Trading Draisaitl only makes sense if you are getting better. I don’t have confidence the Oilers will get better by trading Draisaitl.

  5. Psyche says:

    LT wrote, “I’ll tell you though, I think Slepyshev can play.”

    I’m with you Sir. It’s been painfully obvious that the coach isn’t a fan this season. I like what I see from Slepyshev. With confidence he can play either wing on the 3rd and (sometimes) 2nd lines. Good skater with size, and that great wrist shot which we haven’t seen very much this season. Plus his contract is what the Oilers desperately need.

  6. OriginalPouzar says:

    That was a disappointing west coast road trip, wasn’t it?

    Oh well, tonight is another game night and there are more stories to be told.

    Who will step up tonight?

    Will Jesse get his offensive confidence back?

    Will the fourth line go on a heater with Kassian as they have before?

    Will Larsson be back to help solidify the back end?

    Go Oilers!

  7. Psyche says:

    Lowetide,

    I’m of the school of thought that talent wins. I’ve seen it too often to deny its’ truth. Trading away Draisaitl would gut this team. He’s the 2nd best offensive player on the team. Oilers have already purged too much talent to compete this season. Play him 2nd line centre and then find our “Kessel.”

  8. OriginalPouzar says:

    With respect to the cap calculation for next season, are you factoring in full bonuses for Jesse?

    I think it would be unrealistic to think that he’ll hit all his bonuses, wouldn’t it?

    Isn’t there almost $2.5M of wiggle room there (depending on how much of a bonus overage risk management is willing to take).

  9. Scungilli Slushy says:

    Lowetide:
    Trading Draisaitl only makes sense if you are getting better. I don’t have confidence the Oilers will get better by trading Draisaitl.

    Especially when it’s the bottom half of the roster that is the problem. They aren’t scoring and often are getting scored on.

    If Lucic was moveable somebody would take him at 6M. The return might not be great, but he is for some GMs and coaches the equivalent of a mid life crisis sports car you’ve always wanted.

  10. Brantford Boy says:

    LT, I don’t disagree that Slepyshev can play, lately I’m wondering if hes more suited for bottom 6 duties though… I really liked his game in LA, maybe its time for him to re-invent his style… with the odd call ups to the top 6 ie. Kassian…

    I’ve been overly patient with Chiarelli… looking at that roster with projected salaries is downright awful… he did the same thing in Boston, I think everyone thought he would have learned his lesson(s)… and unless Boston completely outbids Tampa on Maroon, I’d be screwing over the Bruins ie. Hamiliton.

  11. OriginalPouzar says:

    I’m throwing out my deadline wishes:

    Maroon for Jordan Schmaltz

    Letestu for Daniel Sprong

    Slepyshev and Laggeson for Max Domi

    NHL ready value contacts acquired!

    Make it so.

  12. thehop says:

    Lowetide,

    Well that’s a totally different conversation then.
    I don’t have an ounce of confidence in the current management group and I suspect if Draisaitl were traded, the current group would not come out on top.

    I’m happy there are at least a couple other people, who are smarter than I, who are talking about it.

  13. OriginalPouzar says:

    thehop:
    I love it…

    Rishaug is on the radio right now, ranting about how Kypreos was out to lunch for suggesting the Oilers trade Draisaitl. Willis is mulling it over on the Athletic.

    Look at the roster LT posted above and tell me that it’s not something the Oilers shouldn’t consider.

    I’ve been posting the idea trading Draisaitl here for the better part of a month. He’s a great player. Might be on of the best in the future. The Oilers need a balanced roster to win the cup. As it stands and clearly going forward ( see roster above) this is not possible with a 20million+ first line.

    An RNH trade will not fill the roster holes. Draisaitl would.

    Love the player. But I wouldn’t shed a tear if he was traded for a bona fide 1# dman, and a couple of top nine wingers.

    Willis only wrote about it in response to the verbal from HNIC.

    If I’m not mistaken, Willis dismissed it in his write-up in various different manners.

  14. magicaleigh says:

    Bridge Nurse, kick Benning away and play Gryba/Davidson one of Bear/Mantha/Jones/Lowe whoever.

    Those two moves probably save 2 millionish, neither is ideal but I don’t see an option beyond trading Klefbom/Nuge or hoping that Russell/Sekera/Lucic agrees to be moved.

  15. StixMalone says:

    Had a chance to see the NHL celebration of the Oilers last night(hopefully the last). Funniest speech went to Jaro Pouzar. Pure comedy. If it airs (didn’t see it on TV guide) watch it but it will be edited (language and time).

    Florida tonight and the Oil should win this one!

  16. thehop says:

    OriginalPouzar,

    These are good.

    I would be a happy fan if Chiarelli could get Schmaltz and Sprong.

    If he could wrangle Domi out of Arizona all would be forgiven….

  17. thehop says:

    OriginalPouzar,

    Yes that is true.

    Regardless of which side of the fence folks are on. I’m happy people are talking about it.

  18. Scungilli Slushy says:

    If Burgers gives PC the summer I hope he’s got a direct line and a veto.

    It would take some prodigious cahones to let him have free reign another summer after the previous 2. Imagine if he screwed up trading Nuge and Klefbom.

    It would take a decade to recover.

    I’m nervous about this, I can see the old pattern of sitting on the UFAs and either losing them all for nothing and overpaying any signed. And making another piss poor trade of top talent.

  19. ArmchairGM says:

    Why are you paying your 7D nearly $2M?? He isn’t worth a penny more than Benning – and probably less. Yes, I know about the QO situation, but even that’s only $1.55M. THIS is exactly the kind of contract that is getting the Oilers into cap trouble.

    A 27-year-old journeyman defenseman would make $675K from the Penguins or Black Hawks.

  20. godot10 says:

    Please quit putting Draisaitl at RW. Begin as one means to proceed. Because the coach is wrong, doesn’t mean the rest of us should indulge his mistake.

    Also forget about that $3 million QO to Strome that you put there in your chart. That would be a massive mistake. Strome’s money plus a little gets one a left wing.

  21. dustrock says:

    What defenceman could you trade as part of a package for Draisaitl that would improve this team?

    And I mean real improvement, not Larsson for Hall improvement.

    If you could get Karlsson I would probably do it, though I’d be sweating bullets for years.

    Who else would possibly be available?

    Doughty?
    Pietrangelo?
    Hedman?
    Josi?

    Without getting a top calibre d-man back, I just don’t see the point of a Draisaitl l trade.

    And the only one who might, pie in the sky, be available is Karlsson, who has leather tendons in one foot.

  22. godot10 says:

    Psyche:
    Lowetide,

    I’m of the school of thought that talent wins. I’ve seen it too often to deny its’ truth. Trading away Draisaitl would gut this team. He’s the 2nd best offensive player on the team. Oilers have already purged too much talent to compete this season. Play him 2nd line centre and then find our “Kessel.”

    Lucic, unfortunately, is our Kessel,

  23. OriginalPouzar says:

    godot10:
    Please quit putting Draisaitl at RW.Begin as one means to proceed.Because the coach is wrong, doesn’t mean the rest of us should indulge his mistake.

    Also forget about that $3 million QO to Strome that you put there in your chart.That would be a massive mistake.Strome’s money plus a little gets one a left wing.

    I know I’ve been pumping Strome’s tires for a bit here but the point is valid – can we get a “better player” or “better fit” with the cap space used by letting him walk (if he’s unwilling to sign for a lower cap hit that the QO)?

    I’m not sure – $3M doesn’t go far in free agency….

  24. JimmyV1965 says:

    I have a lot of self loathing about this, but I can’t deny it. I’m getting excited about the draft. If we can somehow finish in the top four….

  25. frjohnk says:

    Looking at the core of the team that are off the ELC, McDavid, Drai, RNH, Klefbom, Nurse, Larsson, plus the guys with NMC’s ,Lucic, Russell, Sekera, Talbot , ( this amounts to about $59.5M for these 10 players) we will need a bunch of value contracts at the bottom of the roster.

    Kassian as a 4th liner at $1.95M is too much.
    Strome at $3M as a bottom 6 forward is too much.
    Davidson at $1.8M as a bottom pairing/number 7 Dman is too much.
    Cagguila as a 4 line winger at $1.2M is too much.

    Chia or whoever will need to replace the bottom of the roster with cheaper options and will need to have a better bottom end roster than we have today. Almost impossible.

    Or he deals some from the core/NMC group
    The NMC guys is an area in which the team does not get value for the money spent, but it will be hard to clear out these guys cause of the NMC’s.

    Not trading McDavid.

    Nurse is probably the 2nd untouchable.

    Trading Drai would be tough. Teams would wonder why the Oilers are looking to trade him, just after signing him to that monstrous deal. Trade Drai and I can not see how the Oilers get 100% on the dollar return.

    That leaves Klefbom and RNH.

    That is $10.1M in cap space between these two.

    1 of these guys is a goner.

    And if the salary cap does not move as much as we hope, dont be surprised to see both gone and replaced with more bottom end roster players and maybe a pick/prospect to restock the cupboard a bit more.

  26. Chelios is a Dinosaur says:

    Nuge on the wing.

    CMD – JP – Not Lucic: Not Lucic revels in the opportunity.
    Drai – Nuge – Not Lucic: Not Lucic buries chances off all that sauce.
    Strome – JJ – Slep: Cycle the puck, don’t do anything stupid.
    3 fast people who can kill penalties

  27. godot10 says:

    OriginalPouzar:
    I’m throwing out my deadline wishes:

    Maroon for Jordan Schmaltz

    Letestu for Daniel Sprong

    Slepyshev and Laggeson for Max Domi

    NHL ready value contacts acquired!

    Make it so.

    The Oilers need Barbashev more than Schmaltz.

  28. godot10 says:

    magicaleigh:
    Bridge Nurse, kick Benning away and play Gryba/Davidson one of Bear/Mantha/Jones/Lowe whoever.

    Those two moves probably save 2 millionish, neither is ideal but I don’t see an option beyond trading Klefbom/Nuge or hoping that Russell/Sekera/Lucic agrees to be moved.

    One can’t bridge Nurse, because unlike Draisaitl, Nurse WILL be offer-sheeted.

    Nurse is part of the central core in McDavid and Draisaitl. Pay him what you need to to lock him up for 8 years.

  29. norm_klassen says:

    Oilers need a veteran winger; veteran RHD powerplay defenseman; pl center or bottom 6 winger that pk’s?
    Someone on that left D has to go and i think they hope benning can be that powerplay guy and they hope the pk will fix itself is internally. And they hope they can fill the wings internally

    Lots of hope next year😅

  30. Woogie63 says:

    Did the Oilers’ host a hiring fair last night???

  31. ArmchairGM says:

    OriginalPouzar:
    I’m throwing out my deadline wishes:

    Maroon for Jordan Schmaltz

    Letestu for Daniel Sprong

    Slepyshev and Laggeson for Max Domi

    NHL ready value contacts acquired!

    Make it so.

    Your first trade is fine, but I doubt the others would fly.

    – Sprong is a legit talent and Pittsburgh’s system is starving for talent, so I doubt they trade him for a 4C rental. Strome for Sprong? Now we’re talking. Is Gryba + Letestu enough for Sprong? Probably not… I say send Letestu to a playoff team that struggles at the faceoff dot, that’s the only way he’ll garner a decent return.

    – I have no idea what Domi is really worth, but I think Arizona will want more than his boxcars indicate he’s worth. Somehow it seems only Edmonton sells low on a decent player having a bad season.

  32. OriginalPouzar says:

    JimmyV1965:
    I have a lot of self loathing about this, but I can’t deny it. I’m getting excited about the draft. If we can somehow finish in the top four….

    Even the top 7-8 excite me.

    1st – Dahlin

    2nd to 4th – elite offensive forwards

    5th to 8th – a few potential high end right shot puck moving D

    Picks 2nd to 8th are full of players that could fill our two glaring holes – offensive winger and right shot puck moving D.

    A D pick in the back half of the top 10 will likely take a few years though.

  33. godot10 says:

    Woogie63:
    Did the Oilers’ host a hiring fair last night???

    I see what you did there.

  34. OriginalPouzar says:

    godot10: The Oilers need Barbashev more than Schmaltz.

    I don’t think I agree.

    I’ve been very express that the most pressing need is a right show D to slot in to the 1st or 2nd pairing.

    Its probably aggressive to slot Schmaltz in to 2RD but he’d be a hell of an add to our right side depth chart.

  35. ArmchairGM says:

    godot10:
    Please quit putting Draisaitl at RW.Begin as one means to proceed.Because the coach is wrong, doesn’t mean the rest of us should indulge his mistake.

    Also forget about that $3 million QO to Strome that you put there in your chart.That would be a massive mistake.Strome’s money plus a little gets one a left wing.

    As I suggested to Original P, maybe a Strome for Sprong deal would get Pittsburgh to the table.

  36. thehop says:

    dustrock:
    What defenceman could you trade as part of a package for Draisaitl that would improve this team?

    And I mean real improvement, not Larsson for Hall improvement.

    If you could get Karlsson I would probably do it, though I’d be sweating bullets for years.

    Who else would possibly be available?

    Doughty?
    Pietrangelo?
    Hedman?
    Josi?

    Without getting a top calibre d-man back, I just don’t see the point of a Draisaitl l trade.

    And the only one who might, pie in the sky, be available is Karlsson, who has leather tendons in one foot.

    The one that makes the most sense to me:

    3 for 1 to Carolina
    Faulk, Justin RD NHL 25 $4,833,333
    Teräväinen, Teuvo C, LW, RW NHL 23 $2,860,000
    Aho, Sebastian LW NHL 20 $925,000

    I won’t post anymore of these as to not devolve the conversation into an HF level but you asked so there it is.

  37. Jaxon says:

    I still think Russell gets bought out. It won’t be pretty but it will save them 3.4M of cap hit next season. He’d only count 611k against cap next year if bought out.

  38. ArmchairGM says:

    JimmyV1965:
    I have a lot of self loathing about this, but I can’t deny it. I’m getting excited about the draft. If we can somehow finish in the top four….

    Likewise. I would pick Boqvist as high as third.

  39. magicaleigh says:

    godot10,

    Offer sheets don’t happen.

    And if by some miracle, someone is willing to pay Nurse 6 or 7 million a year, let them, take the first, second and third and trade them for multiple assets.

  40. OriginalPouzar says:

    frjohnk:
    Looking at the core of the team that are off the ELC, McDavid, Drai, RNH, Klefbom, Nurse, Larsson, plus the guys with NMC’s ,Lucic, Russell, Sekera, Talbot ,( this amounts to about $59.5M for these 10 players) we will need a bunch of value contracts at the bottom of the roster.

    We also need value contracts at the top of the roster – top 6 winger.

    This is why I’m loathe to commit medium-long term cap to any older winger (Maroon, Hoffman or otherwise).

    Its likely a year away (maybe two) but I think we can fill that production internally for a cap hit of $1M with players like Yamamoto, potentially Benson and, potentially in a few years, Maksimov and/or Safin.

    There will be paid in the interim while we let those players develop but it is for the greater good of the long term cap structure and competitiveness of the team going forward.

  41. anjinsan says:

    The focus should be on getting rid of Chiarelli, not making believe that he’s a competent decision maker and speculating on his next brilliant or even semi-adequate moves.

  42. frjohnk says:

    If we draft a winger, what are the chances we start next year with that winger and Yamamoto on the roster next fall?

    I wouldnt bet against it.

  43. Psyche says:

    godot10,

    “Lucic, unfortunately, is our Kessel,”

    I just threw up a little in my mouth.

  44. OriginalPouzar says:

    ArmchairGM: Your first trade is fine, but I doubt the others would fly.

    – Sprong is a legit talent and Pittsburgh’s system is starving for talent, so I doubt they trade him for a 4C rental. Strome for Sprong? Now we’re talking. Is Gryba + Letestu enough for Sprong? Probably not… I say send Letestu to a playoff team that struggles at the faceoff dot, that’s the only way he’ll garner a decent return.

    – I have no idea what Domi is really worth, but I think Arizona will want more than his boxcars indicate he’s worth. Somehow it seems only Edmonton sells low on a decent player having a bad season.

    I don’t know if any of those trades will fly but its what I’d like to see (or at least the type of return I’d like the GM to covet – NHL ready (presumably) value contracts).

    Strome for Sprong would be interesting if Letestu plus a mid-pick or B-prospect doesn’t do it for them.

  45. OriginalPouzar says:

    – I have no idea what Domi is really worth, but I think Arizona will want more than his boxcars indicate he’s worth. Somehow it seems only Edmonton sells low on a decent player having a bad season.

    Isn’t that the same as Slepyshev though? Granted Domi has had more NHL success than Anton.

    This is why I added a decent B-level prospect.

  46. pts2pndr says:

    There seems to be a more logical way to proceed. Given that there is a disconnect between coach and manager, I submit the following:

    Remove the coach.

    Bring in an interim coach who will:

    Utilize Draisatl as 2nd line center

    Play Slepeshev on one of the top two lines

    When Nuge comes back play him as one of your top two left wings

    Play khaira as your third line center

    The defense is unbalanced and will need to be dealt with in the off season. Audition one or more of your young Ahl defensemen in the 3rd pairing.

    By the end of the season there should be a much clearer picture of what is the best way to proceed re players needind to be moved!
    Jmo

  47. OriginalPouzar says:

    Jaxon:
    I still think Russell gets bought out. It won’t be pretty but it will save them 3.4M of cap hit next season. He’d only count 611k against cap next year if bought out.

    $1.1M for 4 of the 6 years, $611K for one year and like $3.5M on the cap for one year (happens to be the potential lockout year).

    Its not really realistic to acquire the RHD that we need without one of the $4M plus cap hits on the left side going out.

    I’m loathe to trade Klef, even though the return would be the best, and, although i HATE buyouts generally, clearing apx $3M of cap space/season (except for the one) would really help.

  48. ArmchairGM says:

    godot10: The Oilers need Barbashev more than Schmaltz.

    NO.

  49. godot10 says:

    OriginalPouzar: I don’t think I agree.

    I’ve been very express that the most pressing need is a right show D to slot in to the 1st or 2nd pairing.

    Its probably aggressive to slot Schmaltz in to 2RD but he’d be a hell of an add to our right side depth chart.

    Schmaltz is at best a 3rd pairing D. The Oilers 3rd pairing next year is probably Sekera and Russell. With Benning as #7. So Schmaltz probably wouldn’t play.

    Barbashev would probably be #4C. And prevent an overpay in the UFA market to replace Letestu.

  50. Woogie63 says:

    Open-McDavid 12.5 – Caggiula 2.1
    Lucic 6 – Draisaitl 8.5 – Puljujarvi 3.425
    Kahaira .675 Hopkins 6 – Yamamoto 1.155
    Shepyshev 1.3 -Malone -.65 – Kassian 1.95
    Gambardella .725 – Pakarinen .725

    Klefbom 4.1 – Larsson 4.1
    Nurse 4.5 – Russell 4
    Sekera 5.5 – Benning 1.1
    Bear .8

    Talbot 4.1
    LB .75

    Leave you $5ish to get a Left/Right winger for McDavid

    1. Out – Maroon, Letestu, Cammi and Strome, Davidison – we get faster
    2. Nurse for $4.5M if that is only 6 years so be it
    3. Back to LB – he is playing in Bakersfield so this must be the plan
    ———

    Team is faster
    Leon, Connor and Hopkins each leads a line that works for them
    Connor – Speed; Draisaitl – cycle/puck possession – Hopkins – skill against weaker opponents

    plan to start one rookie; Yama on the third line
    plan to have 3 rookies on the 23 man roster
    if you can trade/buy-out Russell or Sekera you can keep Davidson
    I would chase Grabner at $3M for 1LW … can score and great boots

  51. frjohnk says:

    The sun has a sobering article on how secondary non-scoring has helped torpedo this team.

    McDavid has played in 16 games in which he has not scored.

    Oilers have won 2 of those games.

  52. ArmchairGM says:

    This is interesting:

    http://puckbase.com/stats/faceoff-percentage?team=EDM&sort=faceoff_pct&sort_order=desc

    Either Malone or Khaira could replace Letestu at 4C next year.

  53. who says:

    Core players

    Macdavid 12.5
    Drai 8.5
    Nuge 6
    JP 3.4
    Klefbom 4.1
    Larrson 4.1
    Nurse 5.5 x 8

    Total 45.1

    NMC’s

    Seek 5.5
    Russell 4
    Lucic 6

    Total 15.5

    Goalies

    Talbot 4.1
    Montoya 1

    Total 5.1

    Grand total 65.7 with 11 roster spots left to fill for 14 million. Difficult to see Strome coming back under these circumstances.
    You could trade Nuge or Klefbom but you would be getting similar players, at similar cost. Or taking prospects or picks, which further weakens the roster. Best to wait it out 1 year and then trade Sekera and/or Russell.
    The one takeaway from this is how bad Chia has managed the cap. Specifically with UFA signings and NMC’s. He has done some good things but this is a complete fail and probably costs him his job.

  54. who says:

    pts2pndr:
    There seems to be a more logical way to proceed. Given that there is a disconnect between coach and manager, I submit the following:

    Remove the coach.

    Bring in an interim coach who will:

    Utilize Draisatl as 2nd line center

    Play Slepeshev on one of the top two lines

    When Nuge comes back play him as one of your top two left wings

    Play khaira as your third line center

    The defense is unbalanced and will need to be dealt with in the off season. Audition one or more of your young Ahl defensemen in the 3rd pairing.

    By the end of the season there should be a much clearer picture of what is the best way to proceed re players needind to be moved!
    Jmo

    This is what I would do.

  55. Gerta Rauss says:

    That roster above illustrates why Strome at his $3M QO is a non starter. Trade him
    for a pick and cap space and move forward.

    I’d like to see them run the 3 big C’s and Khaira as the 4C and fill in the blanks from there. It’s still not going to be easy but finding wingers in the free agent bin after July 1 should be the path forward for next season

    And as noxious as it sounds, I’d bring back all the D next year and hope for positive regression from Kbomb,Larsson and Sekera. Draft a RHD and bring him into the system fall 2019

    Next year might be another season wandering in the desert, but the season after the cap pressure can be solved by moving Sekera and Russell

    A rebuild of the rebuild*

    *h/t to Leadfarmer

  56. OriginalPouzar says:

    Not since the 2nd game of the pre-season has McLellan gone back to the “original plan” – time to see what Strome can do as 1RW:

    Maroon-McDavid-Strome
    Lucic-Draisaitl-Cammalleri
    Slepyshev-Khaira-Puljujarvi
    Pakarinen-Letestu-Kassian

    Nurse-Davidson
    Klefbom-Russell
    Auvitu-Benning

    Talbot

  57. OriginalPouzar says:

    I like the looks of this line – its big, fast and aggressive:

    Slepyshev-Khaira-Puljujarvi

    I’m excited to see what Strome can do as 1RW and I’m excited to see this third line – hopefully they skate and are aggressive on the forcecheck banging bodies, creating turnovers and energy.

  58. frjohnk says:

    Bob Stauffer
    ‏Verified account @Bob_Stauffer
    2m2 minutes ago

    Maroon-McDavid-Strome
    Lucic-Draisaitl-Cammalleri
    Slepyshev-Khaira-Puljujarvi
    Pakarinen-Letestu-Kassian

    Strome with a push.

  59. OriginalPouzar says:

    godot10: Schmaltz is at best a 3rd pairing D.The Oilers 3rd pairing next year is probably Sekera and Russell.With Benning as #7.So Schmaltz probably wouldn’t play.

    Barbashev would probably be #4C.And prevent an overpay in the UFA market to replace Letestu.

    We don’t know what Schmaltz’s ceiling is. I agree it would be a mistake to pencil him in up the lineup but he has definite potential to play up the lineup and can create offence.

    Our need on the right side of the defence is much more material that the need at 4C – 4C can already be filled internally with Jujhar Khaira at $675K for another year.

  60. DocFan says:

    So I think we can safely say (based on history) the price for a potential #1 D man under a good value contract at a good age should easily fetch a good scoring winger.

    How is NJD for Left Handed D men? Think we could pry away a fast, scoring LW from them?

  61. Oilman99 says:

    Lowetide:
    Trading Draisaitl only makes sense if you are getting better. I don’t have confidence the Oilers will get better by trading Draisaitl.

    The only problem is the Oilers are going to be in cap hell like Chicago unless they can somehow unload the Lucic anchor around their neck. Perhaps they could work a deal where they eat 2mil of his contract,that would free up an extra 4mil of cap space,we can always hope.

  62. OriginalPouzar says:

    ArmchairGM:
    This is interesting:

    http://puckbase.com/stats/faceoff-percentage?team=EDM&sort=faceoff_pct&sort_order=desc

    Either Malone or Khaira could replace Letestu at 4C next year.

    Khaira is the incumbent, for sure.

    He’s the perfect fit at 4C next year.

    Lets not over-rate his offensive production this year – last I checked he’s shooting at 19% about double his career average (including in a lesser league).

    It would be a mistake to pencil Khaira in above the bottom 6 and likely the 4th line.

  63. Oilman99 says:

    Lowetide: p
    Trading Draisaitl only makes sense if you are getting better. I don’t have confidence the Oilers will get better by trading Draisaitl.
    Perhaps a true no.1 dman and first and second round picks would work.

  64. OriginalPouzar says:

    I’m excited to see the new forward lines tonight.

    Every game has a story to tell and every night I will tune in.

    Go Oilers – let the story be a fairy tale and not a nightmare!

  65. frjohnk says:

    DocFan: How is NJD for Left Handed D men? Think we could pry away a fast, scoring LW from them?

    Klefbom for Miles Wood

    Bookje it!!!!

    EDIT: Miles Wood has 15 goals.

    That ties Leon for 1st for Oiler wingers, or 2 more goals than Maroon if a person considers Drai a center.

  66. digger50 says:

    pts2pndr:
    There seems to be a more logical way to proceed. Given that there is a disconnect between coach and manager, I submit the following:

    Remove the coach.

    Bring in an interim coach who will:

    Utilize Draisatl as 2nd line center

    Play Slepeshev on one of the top two lines

    When Nuge comes back play him as one of your top two left wings

    Play khaira as your third line center

    The defense is unbalanced and will need to be dealt with in the off season. Audition one or more of your young Ahl defensemen in the 3rd pairing.

    By the end of the season there should be a much clearer picture of what is the best way to proceed re players needind to be moved!
    Jmo

    I have to agree. Pull off the band aid now and get a coach who will focus on development, not one who will be overplaying and underplaying horses to try and get wins to save themselves but matter little.

    Always was Tmac problem, he wanted instant win now rather than coaching up a player to fill a position for the long term. We still have no to deal on some players. How can this be? They have to given opportunity and be fully supported in that opportunity.

    Drake has been given this. I like him – in the right spot. We now know what he is and can make an informed decision. We need this evaluation on several more, I think we get it with a fresh intern coach.

  67. OmJo says:

    Lowetide:
    Trading Draisaitl only makes sense if you are getting better. I don’t have confidence the Oilers will get better by trading Draisaitl.

    It’s sad that Lucic and Russell (the contracts) will have ultimately costed this team Hall, Eberle, and Nugent-Hopkins… Or Draisaitl.

  68. who says:

    digger50: I have to agree.Pull off the band aid now and get a coach who will focus on development, not one who will be overplaying and underplaying horses to try and get wins to save themselves but matter little.

    Always was Tmac problem, he wanted instant win now rather than coaching up a player to fill a position for the long term. We still have no to deal on some players. How can this be? They have to given opportunity and be fully supported in that opportunity.

    Drake has been given this. I like him – in the right spot. We now know what he is and can make an informed decision. We need this evaluation on several more, I think we get it with a fresh intern coach.

    Agreed. At this point Chia and Tmac are both trying to save their jobs. They will sacrifice the future for short term gain. That is not in the best interests of this franchise.

  69. Georges says:

    Reads:

    “The Edmonton Oilers return from California with yet another confirmation that this team, as constructed, isn’t good enough for the playoffs.”

    Takes a look at the rosters of those 3 California teams and the games played by the players on those rosters. Does the same for the teams that are in the playoffs or still in the hunt. Spots the many flaws and inadequacies in the rosters of almost all of them.

    Rereads:

    “The Edmonton Oilers return from California with yet another confirmation that this team, as constructed, isn’t good enough for the playoffs.”

    ???

    We’re the only ones who were doomed to fail from the start? Wasn’t this roster favored to make the Cup Final in the pre-season? I believe some of the present harsher critics of the roster offered playoff contending predictions in Hunter’s poll. Yet the roster construction is (or, I guess, was) fatally flawed.

    The dissonance is strong…

    Can this season’s roster be compared to 15-16 because the points results to date line up?

    15-16 Oilers 5v5

    CF% 48.9
    GF% 44.1

    17-18 Oilers 5v5

    CF% 52.0
    GF% 49.1

    You use CF% to evaluate player performances in your post games. Which indicates you believe CF% is the best way to determine how we really did. Our CF% this season is better than all 3 of the California teams that beat us on this road trip. Our score and venue adjusted CF% is better than 2 of those 3 teams.

    But this roster, as constructed, isn’t good enough for the playoffs?

    Well, I know one person who benefits from seeing things that way.

    Here’s one of Friedman’s 30 Thoughts on Mar. 23, 2016 in case you missed it.

    “Coach Todd McLellan’s exasperation with his forwards grows on a game-by-game basis. At this point, I assume the only untouchables up-front are Connor McDavid and Leon Draisaitl.”

    Schultz was already gone at that point. Turns out we were just getting warmed up.

    Our poor, winning, veteran, respected HC! He’s just a bystander/victim in all of this unpleasant PC roster bungling. When will he ever get a roster deserving of his awesome HC’ness?

    The reality is this HC has underperformed with every roster he’s been given with the Oilers. That’s the big problem. Everything else, in comparison, is a little problem, including roster construction.

  70. digger50 says:

    I did not see major trades fixing this team. Too many things to go wrong my. Too many unknowns, bounce back seasons to come. I think they need to hold onto top skill at all costs.

    We know we win with Connor on the ice
    We are almost at Drai driving a dominant second line
    We have enough talent to support the above
    We have Nuge as ace in the hole. Part of top six or exceptional third line center

    We should be confident new coaches can improve special teams

    Thus we need:
    Better bottom six. – this is achievable. Can they reach 50% goal share?
    Better goaltending – this is a mystery
    Better defence – what do we really have back there? Is Davidson our second best d man right now? Is it systems trouble? Injuries? Have any pairings worked or the blender just keeps them off kilter?
    Questions need answered but from the outside the sum of the parts is not good enough. We improve our defence and forwards get better as well.

    Auvitu. Simpson, Lowe need evaluations. Larson and Klefbom some time and confidence. Benning some help. Check everything in the cupboard and then go hunting other cupboards to uncover a gem.

  71. Jaxon says:

    Guesses:

    Maroon and a 3rd to STL for one of Schmaltz, Kyrou or Thomas and Thorburn. (I’d look to Hanzal’s trade last year as a model)

    Letestu, Slepyshev and Ferlin to TBL for one of Joseph, Raddysh, Howden or Foote and Conacher.

    Cammalleri back to NJD for a 6th Round pick. (Stafford and Parenteau both fetched 6th Round picks last deadline, so I think that’s about right.)

    Auvitu might not fetch anything but a similar fringe player or maybe a 7th round pick.

    RFAs Strome, Caggiula and Pakarinen will be interesting to watch. Maybe they get traded, too.

  72. Oilman99 says:

    OriginalPouzar:
    I’m throwing out my deadline wishes:

    Maroon for Jordan Schmaltz

    Letestu for Daniel Sprong

    Slepyshev and Laggeson for Max Domi

    NHL ready value contacts acquired!

    Make it so.

    Maroon for schmalz would be another over pay for an unproven talent. Maroon is worth a higher return.

  73. thehop says:

    frjohnk:
    Bob Stauffer
    ‏Verified account @Bob_Stauffer
    2m2 minutes ago

    Maroon-McDavid-Strome
    Lucic-Draisaitl-Cammalleri
    Slepyshev-Khaira-Puljujarvi
    Pakarinen-Letestu-Kassian

    Strome with a push.

    Could be interesting.

    Pumping his numbers for a deadline deal perhaps.

    Both he and Cammi have had time there recently.

    That third line could be dynamite. How nice would it be if Khaira could fill that spot.

  74. frjohnk says:

    Georges
    If TMac is a wrong fit for this team and not a good coach, it just strengthens the narrative that Chia is a poor GM.
    And I totally agree with you on the coach.

  75. digger50 says:

    frjohnk:
    Bob Stauffer
    ‏Verified account @Bob_Stauffer
    2m2 minutes ago

    Maroon-McDavid-Strome
    Lucic-Draisaitl-Cammalleri
    Slepyshev-Khaira-Puljujarvi
    Pakarinen-Letestu-Kassian

    Strome with a push.

    Thanks

    So, good to see some evaluations right? I think.

    But I doubt that is what is happening. Coach and players still confused.

    Tmac tried to coach luck. Some lucky bounces and a goal for Kassian could be completely determined by luck. Coach then moves him up because he’s”hot” and again affects chemistry of lines for yet another game.

    Oh can’t base your coaching on luck

  76. digger50 says:

    thehop: Could be interesting.

    Pumping his numbers for a deadline deal perhaps.

    Both he and Cammi have had time there recently.

    That third line could be dynamite. How nice would it be if Khaira could fill that spot.

    Yes, would love to see that third line take off.

  77. Gayfish says:

    To summarize, we are effed for at least the next 3 years unless we get a compliance buyout or two. Plus we will probably lose several god pieces because of the dogshit deals we’ve made. And oh yeah, there’s an expansion draft coming.

  78. Bag of Pucks says:

    Georges,

    Post of the year contender.

    +1000000

  79. OriginalPouzar says:

    Apparently Caggulia could play tonight and Sekera could be ready for Thursday (he’s possible for Thursday).

    I don’t think Caggulia is a material enough a player that they should rush him back because he “could play”.

  80. OriginalPouzar says:

    Oilman99: Maroon for schmalz would be another over pay for an unproven talent. Maroon is worth a higher return.

    Maroon is a pending UFA – his trade worth is probably that of a 2nd round pick, give or take. I think we may have to add to get Jordan Schmaltz.

  81. bsmart says:

    Ran the draft lottery simulator and here are the results (silver lining to a stressful season:

    1 EDM Rasmus Dahlin

    D | Frölunda HC

    6’2″

    180 lbs

    17.8 yrs

    Sweden

    2 DET Andrei Svechnikov

    RW | Barrie

    6’2″

    190 lbs

    17.9 yrs

    Russia

    3 OTT Filip Zadina

    LW | Halifax

    6’0″

    190 lbs

    18.2 yrs

    Czech Rep.

    4 ARI Adam Boqvist

    D | Brynäs IF

    5’11”

    170 lbs

    17.5 yrs

    Sweden

    5 BUF Brady Tkachuk

    C/LW | Boston University

    6’2″

    195 lbs

    18.4 yrs

    USA

  82. OriginalPouzar says:

    thehop: Could be interesting.

    Pumping his numbers for a deadline deal perhaps.

    Both he and Cammi have had time there recently.

    That third line could be dynamite. How nice would it be if Khaira could fill that spot.

    I’ve got Khaira penciled in as 4C next year – I think its a mistake to pencil him above that spot (lets not forget his shooting percentage this year is unsustainably high – around 19%).

    If we have enough depth on the wing in the top 6 to play Drai as center than, obviously, Nuge is the 3C (and, yes, I think we find a way to keep him).

    McDavid
    Drai
    Nuge
    Khaira

    If Drai or Nuge are needed on the wing:

    McDavid
    Nuge
    Strome
    Khaira

    Of course, if we find a way to keep Strome, hopefully, for less than $3M,

  83. OilSafety says:

    A shot at moving forward…

    Nuge – Mc David – Puljujarvi
    Lucic – Drai – Sleppy
    Camaleri – Erik Haula – Yamamoto
    Pakarenin – Jujar – Kassian

    Klef – Larsson
    Nurse – Faulk
    Davidson – Benning
    Lowe

    Haula has speed and pk, two more years at 2.5 with Vegas who has flexibility in Karlsson to move him. I would entertain one of the young D in Bakersfield and a second rounder for this player.

    Buy out Russel if he cant be traded without salary retained (he has played fine this year, but we need to make room and cap space) who’s contract is buy out friendly.

    Trade Sekera, possibly for young top 6 forward prospect(s) to free up cap space for 12m at 1LW/2LW

    Maroon and our first this year for Faulk before the deadline. Yes I know our first is valuable. If Carolina wants better forward skill in this trade, might have to make it a three way, cause we dont have top end forward depth to give.

    Letestu, Strome for picks/prospects at the deadline

    makes our depth at D thin, but I couldn’t see affording Russel or Sekera with the other changes, but what do I know, I am just a fan.

  84. Georges says:

    frjohnk:
    Georges
    If TMac is a wrong fit for this team and not a good coach, it just strengthens the narrative that Chia is a poor GM.
    And I totally agree with you on the coach.

    In Boston, PC started his tenure by firing Sullivan and hiring Dave Lewis. When he wasn’t happy with Lewis’s first season, he fired him and hired Julien. This was the obvious option after the results of Oilers season 1. PC’s biggest mistake, I think, was to assume that the HC was fine and the team was broken. It was an obvious mistake and I made it too. I interpreted the good regular season results from last year as evidence the 15-16 roster was fatally flawed because even a veteran, winning HC couldn’t get that team anywhere near mediocre. I never questioned how it was possible for us to finish a point ahead of an actively tanking Toronto team that had much less talent than we did. I didn’t think it through… I also wasn’t looking at the data at the time…

    But that playoff exit last year opened my eyes. It shouldn’t have happened and it shouldn’t have happened the way it did. The fact that Randy Carlyle took his team to Kelowna and made adjustments that won him 4 of the next 5 games… and McLellan was quoted in the media as being furious with Eberle… when he cast him in the role of checker and sent him out on home ice against Getzlaf. Why, thank you very much, Todd!

    I think after a campaign like that, the soldiers get the feeling their leader is going to get them killed. Even if it’s just superstition.

    But, again, PC focused on players and sent Eberle, Pouliot, and Desharnais away.

    I don’t see how it’s possible for him to now not see the problem after what’s happened this season. If he tinkers with the roster again, sends RNH or Drai or one of the D away, then, yeah…

    And didn’t Nicholson hire them both? I thought he did, or that he made a “suggestion” to PC.

  85. OriginalPouzar says:

    I’m a little surprised that Larsson isn’t back – I anticipated he’d join the team when they got back home.

    Poor guy!

  86. Oilin4 says:

    Question: Does JP’s (and KY’s) bonus have to fit in under the cap to start the season? If not, we can pencil in $2M in savings, maybe more. He’s unlikely to hit a schedule A bonus.

    The solution to keeping Nuge and Klef is letting Strome walk (save at least $1M on his replacement), flipping Montoya for Broissoit (or similar) and saving $400K on the cap, and…..trading Kassian (save approx $1M on his replacement).

    Can improve the team without subtracting (if ELC bonuses don’t have to fit under cap).

  87. OriginalPouzar says:

    Oilin4:
    Question: Does JP’s (and KY’s) bonus have to fit in under the cap to start the season? If not, we can pencil in $2M in savings, maybe more. He’s unlikely to hit a schedule A bonus.

    The solution to keeping Nuge and Klef is letting Strome walk (save at least $1M on his replacement), flipping Montoya for Broissoit (or similar) and saving $400K on the cap, and…..trading Kassian (save approx $1M on his replacement).

    Can improve the team without subtracting (if ELC bonuses don’t have to fit under cap).

    No, they don’t have to fit in under the cap but, if they vest and it takes the team over the cap for the year, there will be a bonus overage penalty on the cap for the following year.

    As an aside, Yamamoto’s bonuses are a non-factor – his performance bonuses are a max of $220K/season.

  88. thehop says:

    OriginalPouzar: $1.1M for 4 of the 6 years, $611K for one year and like $3.5M on the cap for one year (happens to be the potential lockout year).

    Its not really realistic to acquire the RHD that we need without one of the $4M plus cap hits on the left side going out.

    I’m loathe to trade Klef, even though the return would be the best, and, although i HATE buyouts generally, clearing apx $3M of cap space/season (except for the one) would really help.

    Agreed, that buyout is poison.

    Someone will surely trade for a piss poor, overpaid, defensive defenseman who happens to only be good at blocking shots and turning the puck over. Great guy too I hear.

  89. russ99 says:

    Georges: In Boston, PC started his tenure by firing Sullivan and hiring Dave Lewis. When he wasn’t happy with Lewis’s first season, he fired him and hired Julien. This was the obvious option after the results of Oilers season 1. PC’s biggest mistake, I think, was to assume that the HC was fine and the team was broken. It was an obvious mistake and I made it too. I interpreted the good regular season results from last year as evidence the 15-16 roster was fatally flawed because even a veteran, winning HC couldn’t get that team anywhere near mediocre. I never questioned how it was possible for us to finish a point ahead of an actively tanking Toronto team that had much less talent than we did. I didn’t think it through…I also wasn’t looking at the data at the time…

    But that playoff exit last year opened my eyes. It shouldn’t have happened and it shouldn’t have happened the way it did. The fact that Randy Carlyle took his team to Kelowna and made adjustments that won him 4 of the next 5 games… and McLellan was quoted in the media as being furious with Eberle… when he cast him in the role of checker and sent him out on home ice against Getzlaf. Why, thank you very much, Todd!

    I think after a campaign like that, the soldiers get the feeling their leader is going to get them killed. Even if it’s just superstition.

    But, again, PC focused on players and sent Eberle, Pouliot, and Desharnais away.

    I don’t see how it’s possible for him to now not see the problem after what’s happened this season. If he tinkers with the roster again, sends RNH or Drai or one of the D away, then, yeah…

    And didn’t Nicholson hire them both? I thought he did, or that he made a “suggestion” to PC.

    This is the an incorrect assumption. In 10 years of the rebuild we couldn’t find a single coach to instill structure in this team. It took McLellan less than a year to do so.

    That we had a poor season due to bad bets that younger players could turn the corner is no reflection on that need for structure.

    I don’t agree with many of his decisions, but that hire was vital to our organization.

    To throw it away now and let the players do whatever they want would set us back years.

    Despite what you think of McLellan, the basic idea of having a coach that’s respected and gets the players to buy in to the structure and systems is essential for winning. Getting a coach who did that was not a failure in judgement.

  90. Oscar Klefbom not getting it done in 2017-18 at exactly the wrong time | Edmonton Journal says:

    […] This in from Allan “Lowetide Mitchell, his take on the most talked about topic in Oil Country for months now. In a fair and accurate assessment of the Oil’s salary cap troubles, Mitchell says we will see the team trade one of Leon Draisaitl (not going to happen), Ryan Nugent-Hopkins (unlikely to happen) or Oscar Klefbom (likely to happen): “The Oilers will have less than $2 million for the No. 1 left-wing on the roster. Can’t be done. As we have discussed many times, that means one of Oscar Klefbom, Ryan Nugent-Hopkins or the first-round pick would be heading out. The only two outs are grabbing another Patrick Maroon for Patrick Maroon or Mark Letestu at the deadline, winning the right to draft one of those insane skill wingers at No. 2 or No. 3 overall, winning the lottery outright (allowing a trade of LHD easily), or someone to release their no-movement clause (likely Sekera). Peter Chiarelli has boxed himself in based on what I can see, perhaps he has an out that is not known to us. Seems unlikely.” […]

  91. frjohnk says:

    Georges,

    I dont know all the specifics but I do know that there was dialogue between Babcock and the Oilers for head coach before TMac.

    As for the hiring of TMac, Im guessing it was a collaboration of Chia and Nicholson but dont know for sure.

  92. Psyche says:

    russ99,

    This is the incorrect assumption: “In 10 years of the rebuild we couldn’t find a single coach to instill structure in this team.”

    That’s a sweeping statement that’s difficult to support without direct knowledge. Structure was likely established with each coach. That’s the M.O. of every professional coach, it’s in their DNA. The question comes to the appropriateness of the selected structure.

  93. OilClog says:

    This team in the spring with the new GM needs to sit down with Lucic and Russell and give them the ultimatums.. move on or have the fans shit on you everyday. For a town that runs hockey players out like no other NMC shouldn’t scare anyone.

    Moving those two guys stops all the insanity, it’s the only option imo, if it’s anything else.. moving Drai, Nuge, or Klef.. Mcdavid will not win a cup til he gets traded. This team isn’t winning shit when you move out that much damn talent.

    Mcdavid started with Hall, Eberle, Nuge, Drai in his cluster and may be the only one left after year 3.. fuck this clown organization!

  94. Melvis says:

    So here we are, moving on toward the summer. And yet I’m vastly curious if this team, as constructed , can show a little bit of backbone through the remnants of this season. Spoilers, baby, spoilers. Earn and burn the sobriquet.

    Once upon, in a six team league, the Hawks, and particularly Bobby Hull were my personal faves. Fuck the Leafs and the Habs. In that major move from hamlet (Prud-homme) to Prince Albert, I got to wear the Hawks colours and the no.9 on the suburban teams.

    I wear a scar on my left wrist courtesy of Richard’s tin head impaling my left wrist courtesy of a particularly grueling table top game. Followed by another one , that heavy forehead bleeder courtesy of the stick swinging incident a couple of years later playing the real thing. They call that the good old days. It had a lot to do with the colours and the number.

    Hull once said something very interesting in regard to the game. He didn’t mention hockey. Which is why I found it interesting.

    He specifically referenced the “entertainment business”. And how it’s individuals and players are duty bound to show up and put in a 100% effort day in and day out, regardless of the circumstances. The fan is coughing up the hard earned work a day bucks for nothing less…so no excuses. And he never disappointed. Of course, I’m paraphrasing here. – but that’s the gist.

    So lets go boys. Go Oilers!

  95. frjohnk says:

    Melvis: (Prud-homme

    Ha.

    Played in that towns barn when I was a youngster.

  96. Gayfish says:

    I think I’d do Klefbom for Tarasenko. Or am I overestimating how much a young swedish defenceman on a value deal is worth?

  97. Oilin4 says:

    thehop: Agreed, that buyout is poison.

    Someone will surely trade for a piss poor, overpaid, defensive defenseman who happens to only be good at blocking shots and turning the puck over. Great guy too I hear.

    Thanks! I think you can safely bet on JP not being top 10 in scoring or making the All Star game or winning a trophy – things that get Schedule A bonuses, iirc. This leaves $2M in extra space, assuming he hits on 4 schedule Bs. My point is that banking on the whole cap hit for JP is a bit too cautious.

  98. P2theickles1 says:

    Chia and TMac need to go.
    Scared to allow Chia to make trades at the deadline, but hopefully he has a big list of untouchables from higher up.The last game of the year this two need to pack up and leave. Need a GM to come in and try and fix this team. Need to get some speed and a bunch of cheap contracts.

    Oilers need to keep McD, Drai, and Nuge
    You run three centres as long as you can and when you can’t you move Nuge or Drai together or one with McD to get some more offensive.
    Everything in the oilers power should be done to trade Lucic he isnt built for the NHL anymore and is a big damper on the oilers line up. And his “Big hockey” isnt seen when playing the ducks and the teams that still push the oilers around. Cant Stand watching him throw the puck away the minute it touches his stick and watching him lug around the ice all game.
    You also only trade Klef if getting a RHD thats got a similar contract and young. Don’t want to see him go and only if its a clear win he should be traded.

  99. Kinger_Oil.redux says:

    Georges,

    -Good stuff Georges… It’s my impression that Nicolson hired both GM and Coach, so dynamic is different than traditional: new GM inherits coach, gets to fire at least 2 coaches before he gets fired

    – I really like the dynamic that the Raptors GM and coach have: last year, the GM said: “league is changing, coach needs to change, I will get some more 3 pointer shooters, and some quicker guys for bench” Coach also changes his philosophy, and they are top-5 in offence and defence this year

    – I know I’m in the minority that Chia or McL aren’t idiots. Top organizations in business with trust and long-term vision they don’t fire everyone. Do an evaluation like the Raptors, rather than get a new coach and/or GM, have another year of evaluations, with a new regime of underlings

    – Get on the same page, tweak roster accordingly, grow as an organization and team and players: put everything on the table: deployment, lines, getting Jagrs and Franson’s vs just the kids, style of play, coaching strategies for special teams etc. That’s more mature than blame game, where once faction is fighting another, to save their jobs IMO.

    -Be humble, gel, believe, get better together. Don’t start again

  100. frjohnk says:

    Ive had TSN radio on all day, doing stuff around the house and getting stuff ready for taxes.

    A whole bunch of people phoning and text the show about Lucic throughout the day. None of it good.

    Someone texted the show and it said

    “Trade Lucic or send him to power skating school”

    I dont know why, but I found that funny.

  101. Georges says:

    russ99: This is the an incorrect assumption. In 10 years of the rebuild we couldn’t find a single coach to instill structure in this team. It took McLellan less than a year to do so.

    That we had a poor season due to bad bets that younger players could turn the corner is no reflection on that need for structure.

    I don’t agree with many of his decisions, but that hire was vital to our organization.

    To throw it away now and let the players do whatever they want would set us back years.

    Despite what you think of McLellan, the basic idea of having a coach that’s respected and gets the players to buy in to the structure and systems is essential for winning. Getting a coach who did that was not a failure in judgement.

    I’m guessing by the “let the players do whatever they want” part that the words Pouliot and Eberle triggered you a bit here. Not sure if you’ve been following what I’ve been posting about coaching over the past few weeks. If not, no worries. But “what I think” of McLellan is also a function of seeing McLellan’s coaching record against the backdrop of all coaching records going back to 2000-01. And the sequence of events, which I think you’re jumbling a bit, matters.

    I want to touch on your point about structure because I think I used that word last season in giving credit for the turnaround to the HC. I see the turnaround a little differently now. And I hesitate to offer one word answers, like speed or structure or balance, for the key to success.

    We went on a three season run in the DOD where we hired first time coaches: Krueger, Eakins, Nelson. Prior to that, we had two veteran coaches (Renney and Quinn), and the coach who had taken us to the SCF (MacTavish). So we had inexperienced coaching only for the 3 seasons prior to McLellan arriving.

    You said it took McLellan less than a year to establish structure. Oh, if only that were the case. I’m sure I wouldn’t be complaining and the team would look so much different now. 15-16, sadly, was an entire year under McLellan. If you want to see structure blooming in the last part of that season, you’ll probably have to look really hard and sideways. Alcohol may help. But players were still doing whatever they want. (As per your preferred explanation for why bad things happen.)

    McLellan did not work the miracle you think he did with the roster he was given. You missed the part where he did it with a revamped roster, a roster far better than what his coaching predecessors were working with. How big a deal do you think it was to establish structure and winning with last season’s team? Larsson, Sekera, Russell, Klefbom can all play defense in appropriate minutes. And Nurse, Benning, and Gryba were no worse 5/6 options than a lot of other teams had to work with. (The fanbase and this board are so shellshocked from persistent failure that they’re quick to condemn and fold tents on players.)

    If you take the time to compare last season’s roster with the roster of every other WC playoff team, you’re not going to come away with the impression that the team overachieved by making the second round. Go back and compare that team to Krueger’s if you’re inclined to compare his tenure unfavorably with McLellan’s first season.

    McLellan had a lot more to work with than his inexperienced predecessors. Again, forget the second season, he even had more than they did in his first season with the team. And he accomplished (points wise) less than Krueger and about as much as Nelson. That’s what the numbers say. It’s not just about what I think of McLellan. Although that result does help me think about McLellan. I think that result doesn’t earn respect. It instills doubt.

    As far as “the basic idea of having a coach that’s respected and gets the players to buy in to the structure and systems is essential for winning” part, I want to point you to our special teams results this season and then I want to point you to our not winning. You can smell it all from here. Do you think that that very coachable part of the game has earned our HC his players’ respect and buy in? Do you think that those systems and that structure he has in place are essential for winning? Or do you think it’s the players’ fault because bad bets or they’re just doing whatever they want?

    It turns out, as per my list yesterday, there are a lot of veteran coaches in the sea, and quite a few with better resumes. All of them have been fired at some point in their career, all of them hungry for another chance to get the most out of a roster and prove themselves as winners, one of the greats in their chosen line of work. Our unicorn HC has manged to make it 10 seasons without having reached the prize or having been dismissed. But you see that in the way he handles himself. It’s always the players doing whatever they want. One big confused mess.

  102. frjohnk says:

    Kinger_Oil.redux: Get on the same page, tweak roster accordingly, grow as an organization and team and players: put everything on the table: deployment, lines, getting Jagrs and Franson’s vs just the kids, style of play, coaching strategies for special teams

    Chia and TMac are in their 3rd season together, they have not had enough time to get on the same page?

  103. Melvis says:

    frjohnk,

    Confirmation and first communion courtesy of Father Budz (sic?) My dad had a hand in building that little Ukrainian church back when.

    I talk too much…;-)

    Although I quit the Confessional in my youth.

  104. Decidedly Skeptical Fan says:

    Georges:
    Reads:

    The reality is this HC has underperformed with every roster he’s been given with the Oilers. That’s the big problem. Everything else, in comparison, is a little problem, including roster construction.

    Even if they kill it in the draft and by some miracle win the offseason, the Oilers will AGAIN miss the playoffs next year if TMac is the head coach.

    If TMac is gone, the OIlers make the playoffs next year.

    Connor McDavid will NEVER win Stanley with TMac as head coach.

    This is the likely near and long term future if this coaching staff remains.

    Try wrapping your head around that.

    I’ll repost this next year if TMac is still the coach. I won’t need to if he is shown the exit.

  105. jtblack says:

    Gayfish:
    I think I’d do Klefbom for Tarasenko. Or am I overestimating how much a young swedish defenceman on a value deal is worth?

    Overstating Out to Lunch Good Luck.

  106. NYC-Back-to-Tokyo Oil (Gentleman Backpacker) says:

    frjohnk:
    Bob Stauffer
    ‏Verified account @Bob_Stauffer
    2m2 minutes ago

    Maroon-McDavid-Strome
    Lucic-Draisaitl-Cammalleri
    Slepyshev-Khaira-Puljujarvi
    Pakarinen-Letestu-Kassian

    Strome with a push.

    Showcase ? Nah. Just the Coach putting him on 97’s wing to prove he can be the 3C instead of Nuge and get him paid 3m+ on his next deal.

    Only half joking.

  107. NYC-Back-to-Tokyo Oil (Gentleman Backpacker) says:

    frjohnk:
    The sun has a sobering article on how secondary non-scoring has helped torpedo this team.

    McDavid has played in 16 games in which he has not scored.

    Oilers have won 2 of those games.

    This can’t be true. We were told secondary scoring was not going to be a problem because Strome, Maroon and Lucic more than make up for ‘gives more than he gets’ Eberle and Hall. We had this discussion in the fall. It was decided thus, then.

  108. texmex says:

    OriginalPouzar,

    Stauffer mentioned on Friday he may not rejoin the team until March.

  109. NYC-Back-to-Tokyo Oil (Gentleman Backpacker) says:

    thehop: The one that makes the most sense to me:

    3 for 1 to Carolina
    Faulk, JustinRDNHL25$4,833,333
    Teräväinen, Teuvo C, LW, RWNHL23$2,860,000
    Aho, SebastianLWNHL20 $925,000

    I won’t post anymore of these as to not devolve the conversation into an HF level but you asked so there it is.

    Are we trading McDavid? Cause if Carolina offers that for Draisaitl you run to the fax machine and send it to the League office! 🙂

  110. OriginalPouzar says:

    Gayfish:
    I think I’d do Klefbom for Tarasenko. Or am I overestimating how much a young swedish defenceman on a value deal is worth?

    Yes, vastly overestimating, vastly.

    That would help STL’s cap situation mind you.

  111. OriginalPouzar says:

    texmex:
    OriginalPouzar,

    Stauffer mentioned on Friday he may not rejoin the team until March.

    Thank you for that.

  112. knighttown says:

    Slepy is probably a better player than, say, Cammaleri but let’s talk about what he does and does not do well.

    The thing with Slepy is that he has really poor vision. Hes got major blinders on. He’s plenty skilled and can skate and shoot so I like him on a 4th line as a puck transporter and doing some basic cycle stuff. The difference in poise, passing and vision versus someone like Cammi is night and day.

    So to me, Cammi makes a good third wheel on a skill line (or at least suitable) but would disappear on a 4th line. Slepy woul drag down a skill line but be nearly dominant on a 4th versus plugs.

  113. NYC-Back-to-Tokyo Oil (Gentleman Backpacker) says:

    OriginalPouzar: Yes, vastly overestimating, vastly.

    That would help STL’s cap situation mind you.

    I believe he knows he is, and posting a rough equivalent to Hall for Larsson.

    LT’s post above has us all depressed today becausr we know it to be true despite all the roster gymnastics we have imagined up to keep Nuge and klef.

    Instead we are looking at Lucic Russell Strome Kassian and Maroon. A 2011 Chia team through and through. Now all we need is Tim Thomas and his .938. Would Tampa trade us Vasilevskiy as part of the rumoured Klefbom deal? Bueller? Bueller?

  114. NYC-Back-to-Tokyo Oil (Gentleman Backpacker) says:

    godot10: One can’t bridge Nurse, because unlike Draisaitl, Nurse WILL be offer-sheeted.

    Nurse is part of the central core in McDavid and Draisaitl.Pay him what you need to to lock him up for8 years.

    Thinking you might be right. Oilers are vulnerable.
    Nurse won’t take a bridge. And $5.886m per avg over 5 years is just a 1st and 3rd but the Oilers can’t afford that cap hit because Kris F Russell.

  115. Georges says:

    frjohnk:
    The sun has a sobering article on how secondary non-scoring has helped torpedo this team.

    McDavid has played in 16 games in which he has not scored.

    Oilers have won 2 of those games.

    What they’re calculating is a conditional probability:

    P(Oilers Win | CMD doesn’t score a point)

    That’s the probability that the Oilers win given CMD doesn’t score a point.

    Knowing a player who scores a high percentage of a team’s points didn’t score in a game is a very good predictor of the team not winning the game. I think you typically need 3 goals to win a typical game. If the Oilers’ total scoring is made up of CMD scoring and non-CMD scoring, then for the games in which you know CMD doesn’t score, you’d need an unusually strong performance from the non-CMD part to get to 3. Unusually strong doesn’t happen that much, so you’re likely to lose a lot of those games. This will apply to a lesser extent with any player that produces some offense. Knowing the player didn’t score requires the remaining part of the roster to overperform in order to get enough goals to win a typical game. As a result, teams lose most games in which player X doesn’t score.

    As an example, check the Hawks results in 2015-16 when they finished with 103 points. They scored 234 goals. Kane ran away with the scoring race that season with 106 points. The Hawks record in games that Kane didn’t score was comparable to what we’re seeing with CMD this season.

    They think they’re telling you something about secondary scoring but they’re not. They’re telling you something about not scoring and how that makes it tough to win games.

  116. bendelson says:

    Melvis,

    I’ll admit to not knowing the appropriate amount of time one should wait before responding to your kind/ridiculous posts over the past few weeks…

    I hope you enjoyed your time at ‘bendelsons’ Sat. night. Based on your description, it sounds an awful lot like a place I used to pretend to visit way back in the day – ‘LT’s garage’. I don’t know if you have been around here long enough to recall those posts…

    I missed the game on Saturday to play poker with some friends… the hangover was a little rough on Sunday, but the stack of 50’s in my wallet sure helped manage the pain.

  117. Gayfish says:

    jtblack:

    It was a tongue in cheek reference to Hall.

  118. GMB3 says:

    russ99,

    What do you know about systems and structure?

    Tom Renneys tenure saw some improvements, Ralph Krueger as well.

    Show me something to prove that you are not completely out of touch

  119. Melvis says:

    bendelson,

    I used to frequent Le Select Bistro in TO when it was situated on Queen West. So there are aspects of that at the heart of the notion. Also the more rural UK local and it’s counterparts in the rest of Europe, where footie reigns.

    What I have now is Montana’s or Boston Pizza and it’s counterparts. meh…

    I was thinking of something with more character. Bendelsons came to mind in the way Fat Melvins might make for a go to burger joint or food truck;-)

    Poker, whiskey, and cigars in the back room.

  120. frjohnk says:

    Georges: As an example, check the Hawks results in 2015-16 when they finished with 103 points. They scored 234 goals. Kane ran away with the scoring race that season with 106 points. The Hawks record in games that Kane didn’t score was comparable to what we’re seeing with CMD this season.

    They think they’re telling you something about secondary scoring but they’re not. They’re telling you something about not scoring and how that makes it tough to win games.

    Good catch. Hawks were 2-18 when Kane did not score
    If I had more time, id see if this is the norm for the elite players on very good to elite teams.

    One thing that is true is that franchise or generational players need help. They cant do it all by themselves.

    In the games that Kane did score, the Hawks had 45 wins and had only 17 losses. He had considerable 2ndary scoring help in those games.

  121. NYC-Back-to-Tokyo Oil (Gentleman Backpacker) says:

    Melvis,

    Le Select was a good spot.

    So was Bendelsons and LT’s Garage for that matter.

    Any LT frequenters are welcome at NYC’s in TYO any time as well. There’s Balvenie and Tallisker and plenty of handmade mountain sake. There’s not much room, but the borrowed scenery of cherry blossoms, wisterias and crape myrtles is pretty good for a tucked away gin joint.

    Here’s hoping for better days for this team and its fans.

  122. Material pocession says:

    thehop:

    Someone will surely trade for a piss poor, overpaid, defensive defenseman who happens to only be good at blocking shots and turning the puck over. Great guy too I hear.

    You mean the same guy who is leading the Oilers defence in scoring?

  123. Material pocession says:

    godot10: One can’t bridge Nurse, because unlike Draisaitl, Nurse WILL be offer-sheeted.

    Nurse is part of the central core in McDavid and Draisaitl.Pay him what you need to to lock him up for8 years.

    This is not true. In fact, it is highly unlikely that Nurse will be offer-sheeted. I’m basing my statement on a well-established historical pattern of non-offer-sheeting RFA’s by rival GM’s. There have been several other past instances where teams were highly vulnerable to RFA offer sheets and it did not happen. It won’t happen with Nurse. A bridge deal makes sense if the player is being unreasonable with his long term ask.

  124. Material pocession says:

    OriginalPouzar:
    Apparently Caggulia could play tonight and Sekera could be ready for Thursday (he’s possible for Thursday).

    I don’t think Caggulia is a material enough a player that they should rush him back because he “could play”.

    An injured Sekera isn’t exactly pushing the river out there, either. He’s been a train wreck, actually.

  125. OriginalPouzar says:

    To be fair, what we know hasn’t been happening is RFAs signing tendered offer sheets.

    GMs could be tendering offer sheets with regularity that aren’t agreed to by the player.

  126. Woogie63 says:

    3 C/3RW earning $3M
    2LHD earring $4.1M

    I would be making space via the 3C

  127. Melvis says:

    NYC-Back-to-Tokyo Oil (Gentleman Backpacker),

    So is a tea room in an Asian garden. Royoan-ji graces this ‘pute as screen saver.

    One might think the original design is intuitive in nature…and yet there’s a considerable amount of geo-trig below the surface…apparently. I wonder what came first. The garden or the math?

  128. Scungilli Slushy says:

    godot10: One can’t bridge Nurse, because unlike Draisaitl, Nurse WILL be offer-sheeted.

    Nurse is part of the central core in McDavid and Draisaitl.Pay him what you need to to lock him up for8 years.

    Nurse will only get more expensive. You worry about your best players first they are the hard players to get.

    Bottom players that can score 35 points on a sheltered 3rd line abound and are cheap. I’d ride the D another year . If all 4 top was players are healthy it’s not a bad group, good enough.

    Bolster the forwards with less costly options that are probably better than what they got out of many on the roster this year.

    Look for speed and two way play first. The bottom 6 have to not get outscored and help on PK.

    Find a 1a type good goalie. No team goes far not being able to trust that position.

    Get in a good cap position for the following year and move Russell and Sekera and try to get some good players.

    The cap situation is what it is next year. Trading a good young player on a good contract isn’t going to change much. Or not enough and will really hurt later. There is no magic bullet. There are still too many problems.

  129. Pescador says:

    Material pocession: You mean the same guy who is leading the Oilers defence in scoring?

    That just highlights the piss poor play of the rest

  130. JimmyV1965 says:

    Gerta Rauss:
    That roster above illustrates why Strome at his $3M QO is a non starter. Trade him
    for a pick and cap space and move forward.

    I’d like to see them run the 3 big C’s and Khaira as the 4C and fill in the blanks from there. It’s still not going to be easy but finding wingers in the free agent bin after July 1 should be the path forward for next season

    And as noxious as it sounds, I’d bring back all the D next year and hope for positive regression from Kbomb,Larsson and Sekera. Draft a RHD and bring him into the system fall 2019

    Next year might be another season wandering in the desert, but the season after the cap pressure can be solved by moving Sekera and Russell

    A rebuild of the rebuild*

    *h/t to Leadfarmer

    Agree with this. I think we can make the playoffs next year with some minor tinkering, but to become a legit Cup contender we simply have to wait a couple years. My only quibble. We have to find a replacement for Benning.

  131. Lowetide says:

    bendelson:
    Melvis,

    I’ll admit to not knowing the appropriate amount of time one should wait before responding to your kind/ridiculous posts over the past few weeks…

    I hope you enjoyed your time at ‘bendelsons’ Sat. night.Based on your description, it sounds an awful lot like a place I used to pretend to visit way back in the day – ‘LT’s garage’.I don’t know if you have been around here long enough to recall those posts…

    I missed the game on Saturday to play poker with some friends… the hangover was a little rough on Sunday, but the stack of 50’s in my wallet sure helped manage the pain.

    Ah, those were the days. 🙂

  132. Georges says:

    frjohnk: Good catch. Hawks were 2-18 when Kane did not score
    If I had more time, id see if this is the norm for the elite players on very good to elite teams.

    One thing that is true is that franchise or generational players need help.They cant do it all by themselves.

    In the games that Kane did score, the Hawks had 45 wins and had only 17 losses.He had considerable 2ndary scoring help in those games.

    Err… now you’re looking at the complement:

    P(Team Wins | Player X Scores)

    We were looking at P(Team Wins | Player X Doesn’t Score) before.

    It’s the same concept, but this time we’re looking at the games in which X scores, so the non-X part of the roster has a lower threshold of output to get to 3. Producing less than usual or better is more likely than producing usual or better. So teams would be more likely to win the games in which Player X Scores.

    In the extreme case that Player X is on all the team’s goals, then Player X not scoring means the team almost certainly lost. This would mean that wins are over represented in the Player X scoring sample and under represented in the Player X not scoring sample. This thing, on a smaller scale, would lead to the pattern you’re observing, regardless of the level of secondary scoring.

    Up to a point. Where Player X doesn’t contribute much offense, the secondary scoring, from his perspective, is actually the team’s primary scoring. So whether he scores or not tells you less about his team winning games. Again, to take it to the extreme, if Player X scores no points in a season, knowing he didn’t score would give you no additional information about the outcome of a game.

    (Now it’s possible that Player X scoring and non-Player X scoring are dependent variables. In that case, Player X scoring would tell you even more about his team winning games, because his scoring is a good proxy for the team’s total offensive output.)

  133. bendelson says:

    Lowetide: Ah, those were the days.

    I swear that bottle of Crown Royal was half full when I left!!

  134. Melvis says:

    Last time I played poker in a garage, I ended up shy of a couple of fifties. And little sense of direction home after the hash oil appeared. Nevertheless, I managed. I can only count my blessings….apparently missing the part later on about the yayo and the willin’ women.

    Fucking garages.

  135. NYC-Back-to-Tokyo Oil (Gentleman Backpacker) says:

    Melvis:
    NYC-Back-to-Tokyo Oil (Gentleman Backpacker),

    So is a tea room in an Asian garden. Royoan-ji graces this ‘pute as screen saver.

    One might think the original design is intuitive in nature…and yet there’s a considerable amount of geo-trig below the surface…apparently. I wonder what came first. The garden or the math?

    In its present iteration the math came first there but I believe experimentation led to the math.

    Also a fine example of borrowed landscapes. In fact, among the finest ever.

  136. Material pocession says:

    Pescador: That just highlights the piss poor play of the rest

    No doubt. The dcorpse has had a poor year. Russell, like him or not, has performed as expected (or better) and has earned his $4M this year imo. At the very least, his value has not eroded year-over-year, which makes me feel a bit better about the next *gulp* three years. People should focus their criticism on management, coaching staff, and the players who are truly underperforming. Make a list of the five or six worst players on the team and upgrade on them. That alone will make a huge difference next year. Start nitpicking Russell on the roster after the gaping holes have been filled.

  137. NYC-Back-to-Tokyo Oil (Gentleman Backpacker) says:

    Sekera and Russell both have NMCs

    Nurse has taken a step this year and needs to be signed.

    LT is warming up his ‘Sail On, Karlstad King’ post now.

    The MSM bringing out the knives for Oscar at this time is another hint.

    We are going to watch another young talent sold low after injury and a poor season. D do not develop in a straight line. That will include Dahlin.

    This team makes me want to grab that bottle of CR and it is only 9am.

  138. Georges says:

    Kinger_Oil.redux:
    Georges,

    -Good stuff Georges…It’s my impression that Nicolson hired both GM and Coach, so dynamic is different than traditional: new GM inherits coach, gets to fire at least 2 coaches before he gets fired

    – I really like the dynamic that the Raptors GM and coach have: last year, the GM said: “league is changing, coach needs to change, I will get some more 3 pointer shooters, and some quicker guys for bench” Coach also changes his philosophy, and they are top-5 in offence and defence this year

    – I know I’m in the minority that Chia or McL aren’t idiots. Top organizations in business with trust and long-term vision they don’t fire everyone. Do an evaluation like the Raptors, rather thanget a new coach and/or GM, have another year of evaluations, with a new regime of underlings

    –Get on the same page, tweak roster accordingly, grow as an organization and team and players: put everything on the table: deployment, lines, getting Jagrs and Franson’s vs just the kids, style of play, coaching strategies for special teams etc.That’s more mature than blame game, where once faction is fighting another, to save their jobs IMO.

    -Be humble, gel, believe, get better together.Don’t start again

    – If that’s the case… and I don’t know what special powers running Hockey Canada for 16 years gives you… but maybe Nicholson should have let the guy he hired to do the job do his job.

    – No idea about the NBA except I get the feeling it’s sad to be a Raptors fan when LBJ is in the East. Sorta like the Capitals or the old Jets.

    – I don’t know about NBA coaching careers. I know you’ve said that results matter. McLellan’s results are just not good, whatever responsibility we can attribute directly to his coaching. The NHL has a very short-term focus and reacts badly to down arrows.

    – Sutter was out 3 seasons after winning a Cup. It’s going to be 3 seasons after the Hawks’ last Cup. Quenneville may be looking for work too.

    – Coaches who have a 3-year record that resembles McLellan’s don’t go on to lead their teams to the Cup or even to the Finals. What then makes McLellan so special?

    – I appreciate what you’re saying in your last two points. I really do.

    – Someone told me last week that kids who grow up in stable homes like routine. They feel comfort in having the same story read to them at exactly the same time in exactly the same way. They come to see the world as predictable, open to their influence, and not threatening. They develop confidence. Unstable homes, on the other hand, are unpredictable and a constant source of threat and anxiety.

    – Now, I know that kids don’t get paid millions of dollars and they don’t have to deal with other kids trying to steal the puck and score goals against them all the time.

    – I think McLellan’s style undermines his players in some important way. I think he described this heavy handed approach as part of his philosophy. He’s so quick to change things up. Our lines and pairings are always in flux. The players don’t know what to expect.

    – He doesn’t set expectations or define clear roles. Slepy has a goodish game on the 4th line; he’s on the 2nd line next game. JP has a baddish shift on the 2nd line; he’s on the 4th line next shift.

    – He asks the players to take responsibility for the results without giving them the opportunity to be responsible for the results, to solve problems as a line or as a pair or as a unit. To get better. Instead, he seems to get rattled and acts out without rhyme or reason.

    – It communicates an I don’t know (and frankly a bit of I don’t care) attitude; and if Dad doesn’t know, aren’t the kids on their own? No one likes arbitrary in their work environment.

    – I would really like to see how other coaches, coaches who’ve actually won something, handle the ups and downs of a season; and how they solve problems on their way to the Cup. Maybe they do the same things and it just comes down to luck. In which case, my bad.

    – Finally, as for starting again, new coaches usually make their impact on a team early in their tenure. Yes, you start over again but you expect to move faster… and in the right direction.

  139. Andy Dufresne says:

    Based on your cap calculations above LT, this is where the REALLY tough decisions come into play in a cap era parity based league.

    Now Chiarreli has said he’s not inclined to make the blockbuster trade and Im inclined to beleive hes being honest. But he is a guy who holds his cards close to the vest and he is a relatively active GM so who knows.

    But here is one type of scenario……we need cap space…..and we have several holes to fill…..those are realities…..one way to manage this is to trade established talent for value contracts OR an ELC contract.

    Example (and the names may vary) You have correctly identified Nuge and Klef as those who are in danger in this scenario.

    So Klefbom to Tampa (who have openly expressed thier desire is to a an established Dman for the cup run) for Sergachev. For the Oilers Sergachev represents a legitimate roster player, albeit a 3rd pair option. Sergachev is on his ELC for two more years after this one.

    Several trhings have to come together for this to make any sense at all:

    1) the trades need to viewed in the context of does the totality of the trades make us a better team. (meaning are you willing to be viewed as bleeding more talent if you belevie the net affect improves your team.
    2) Cap space, talent level, roster position, and player maturity.development level all need to be considered
    3) you have to have some things other teams want
    4) You want to avoid selling 1st round picks given that they are you lifeline moving forward in a cap era with a generational talent at $12.5 and Leon at $8.5

    Anyway something like cost controlled Klefbom to Tampa for ELC Sergachev. and because Sergachev is LHD and slated for the third pair you need to compensate for the loss of Klef by moving $6 million dollar Nuge whose having a pretty good year to Carolina for $4.8 million 25 year old RHD Justin Faulk whose having a down year. Faulk is under contract for two more years after this one.

    It may feel like we are once agian bleeding talent. But we have REAL holes to fill and do we really want to sit around another year and see if the same old roster pulls it together, with a patch here and there?

    I love Nuge and I like Klef….but I want to contend next year.

    Nurse Larsson
    Sekera Faulk
    Sergachev (Davidson / Russell /Benning /Auvitu)

    Its $10 million out and $5.8 million in. the 2 million you identified as avaible cap space and the 4.2 trade savings gives you a lttle over 6 million to sign a Hoffman type.

    Its a sacrafice and a risk. But we’re in a hole Imbalanced right now and need to do something. I personally dont beleive status quo is the answer.

    Anyway….forget the names coming in …..my point is simply that we may have to look for a “sweet spot” type of deal around both value contracts ( Faulk) and perhaps an ELC (Sergachev) and sacrifice mature talent and contract length(Klef).

    You get the second pairing RHD powerplay point man. (age appropriate for the McDavid cluster)
    A 1st line scoring winger for McDavid
    And you own Sergachev so you can draft a winger Svechnikov, Zadina, Tkachuk, Whalstrom

    Still looking for the Balance Photo.

  140. Lowetide says:

    bendelson: I swear that bottle of Crown Royal was half full when I left!!

    Bastages!

  141. Andy Dufresne says:

    the post above is what Id like to see. The chance it happens is somewhere between nil and none. I think Chia (and the whole organization) stays the course. Brings in one player they can afford, scoures the college ranks once again, and continues to make bets on internal options. It is in part, what they were brought in to do….create stability.

  142. GMB3 says:

    Ryan Strome could potentially be the best center available for teams looking for help down the middle for the playoffs. I’m interested in seeing him on McDavids wing but unless they start the game hot he will be out there for all of 6 shifts probably.

    I think we should play him with some skilled wingers as the second line C. Throw Drai on his wing and let him take strong side draws.

  143. OriginalPouzar says:

    Tracy Lane is going off.

    Tweeting that the Penguins are in talks re: Strome and that Tampa has an offer on the table for Maroon.

    She, of course, tweets out a ton of stuff like this that never comes to fruition (except one time).

  144. Oil Fan 99 says:

    I hope the Oilers use the Vegas model to retool. Give young players an opportunity that could use a change of scenery. Perhaps Leivo or even Slepyshev or every team has at least one of these players. If Vegas had either Nuge or Klefbom they wouldn’t entertain trading them and they have exactly one right shot defenceman.

  145. pts2pndr says:

    Why not try a klefbom plus to Buffalo for Ristolainen. Maroon to St louis for young winger and draft picks back or forth depending on player comming back. Letestu for draft pick . Close to balance.

  146. Kinger_Oil.redux says:

    Georges,

    – I could have chats like this for a long time.

    – I suspect Chia doesn’t have full GM powers: I don’t think he ever has. On his own, he would likely fire coach based on the historical precedence you cite, coupled with actual results, and GM-ing 101

    – The business side of me, and the continuity argument though is strong: for another year (or at least a pre-season and hopefully a good start), before you punt coach. Pittsburgh being the most recent example of coach getting punted mid-season then winning the cup.

    – It’s not an excuse, but the goalering drop-off: whether the symptom or the cause, explains a lot

    – You cite the stats that point to a team much better than actual results as well.

    – I also think they figured Klef-Larsson were ready for 1st line D. Sek’s absence and current level hurts a lot. That’s the 3 top D well below last year’s level. Nurse has been strong, Benning Davidson ok cheap tweeners, Russell be Russelling.

  147. thehop says:

    Material pocession: You mean the same guy who is leading the Oilers defence in scoring?

    Ya that guy…

    We both know his point total is not terribly relevant when discussing his overall game.

    I’ll bet you a steak dinner that’s not the case come seasons end.

  148. Pescador says:

    thehop: Ya that guy…

    We both know his point total is not terribly relevant when discussing his overall game.

    I’ll bet you a steak dinner that’s not the case come seasons end.

    Especially when Chiarelli is holding the ‘Klefbom for Cap space’ media avail.

    Focking Osshole

  149. OriginalPouzar says:

    Another game – another bunch of stories to tell.

    Very excited to see how Strome does on the top line and how that big, strong, fast 3rd line plays.

  150. OriginalPouzar says:

    Caggulia is in the lineup.

  151. OriginalPouzar says:

    I guess I don’t get to see that big, strong, fast third line I was excited to see as Drake is on it and Slep on the 4th line – sigh.

  152. Decidedly Skeptical Fan says:

    Any word on the D pairings for tonight?

    I am assuming OV2s ass is stapled to the bench once again. Guy just doesn’t take advantage of the opportunities Todd gives him. Minutes have to be earned after all. You can’t just gift the guy ice time.

  153. OriginalPouzar says:

    Auvitu is in the lineup and he didn’t have his ass stapled to any benches last game – he played over 14 minutes at even strength – plenty of even strength minutes for the 3rd pairing.

  154. Decidedly Skeptical Fan says:

    OriginalPouzar:
    Caggulia is in the lineup.

    Let me guess … Kassian out?

  155. NYC-Back-to-Tokyo Oil (Gentleman Backpacker) says:

    OriginalPouzar,

    I like watching for Barkov. He is a guy I hope Drai can emulate. Drai might be the better passer, but Barkov plays a 200-foot game. Drai could learn a lot from him about play without the puck.

  156. OriginalPouzar says:

    Decidedly Skeptical Fan: Let me guess … Kassian out?

    No

  157. Decidedly Skeptical Fan says:

    OriginalPouzar:
    Auvitu is in the lineup and he didn’t have his ass stapled to any benches last game – he played over 14 minutes at even strength – plenty of even strength minutes for the 3rd pairing.

    OP, do you know if there is a sarcasm emoji? I really have to start using one.

  158. OriginalPouzar says:

    Shoot the puck Strome – standard practice when playing with McDavid for the first time, deferring to Connor.

  159. OriginalPouzar says:

    Damn Drai can dish the puck.

  160. NYC-Back-to-Tokyo Oil (Gentleman Backpacker) says:

    Man, normally I watch the other team’s feed, not Sportsnet because the Oilers’ broadcast team is cringe-worthy. But the Florida PBP guy is so bad I have to opt for Sportsnet this time.

    As a fan base I feel so bad that not only does the team suck this year but everyone has to listen to Drew Remenda for most of the games. That’s just awful.

  161. OriginalPouzar says:

    Klef has totally lost his ability to transition the puck – he can’t pass. I don’t know if its his shoulder or a confidence thing?

  162. NYC-Back-to-Tokyo Oil (Gentleman Backpacker) says:

    Ekblad muffed that or else it would have been a goal.

    Maroon has forgotten how to hockey. Checked out already, hurting his trade value, too.

  163. StixMalone says:

    Why are all our right shot forwards on 1 line?

  164. NYC-Back-to-Tokyo Oil (Gentleman Backpacker) says:

    Lucic just has not been good enough the last quarter of the season but the media guys still seem to speak of him with such awe and with reverence.

  165. Gayfish says:

    StixMalone:
    Why are all our right shot forwards on 1 line?

    I honestly didn’t know we had enough right hand shots on the team to make a line.

  166. Sighduck says:

    Classic PK

  167. OriginalPouzar says:

    Shocking – a goal right off an Oiler skate and in our own net.

  168. Sighduck says:

    Strome doing the right thing parked out in front

  169. OriginalPouzar says:

    Gayfish: I honestly didn’t know we had enough right hand shots on the team to make a line.

    Well, they are are fourth line players.

  170. OriginalPouzar says:

    Maroon ties the game up.

  171. NYC-Back-to-Tokyo Oil (Gentleman Backpacker) says:

    NYC-Back-to-Tokyo Oil (Gentleman Backpacker):
    Ekblad muffed that or else it would have been a goal.

    Maroon has forgotten how to hockey. Checked out already, hurting his trade value, too.

    I should reverse jinx more often. That was a nice set of hands shown by Maroon.

  172. flyfish1168 says:

    Hockey gods give us a goal instead of a PP for slashing Connor. Which is a good thing

  173. NYC-Back-to-Tokyo Oil (Gentleman Backpacker) says:

    Lost in all that, how was there no slashing or cross-checking penalty coming to Trocheck for hacking at McDavid before the goal?

  174. NYC-Back-to-Tokyo Oil (Gentleman Backpacker) says:

    Sighduck:
    NYC-Back-to-Tokyo Oil (Gentleman Backpacker),

    That no goal is insane

    You would have thought it was from one of the Oilers’ shots–been that kind of season. Super lucky to get out of that period tied.

  175. Sighduck says:

    NYC-Back-to-Tokyo Oil (Gentleman Backpacker),

    It just reeks of what McD had to put up with all last year

  176. flyfish1168 says:

    NYC-Back-to-Tokyo Oil (Gentleman Backpacker):
    Lost in all that, how was there no slashing or cross-checking penalty coming to Trocheck for hacking at McDavid before the goal?

    Its OK hockey gods know our PP sucks. Give us goal instead of a PP

  177. Offside says:

    ‪NHL refs must be social justice warriors. Connor McDavid can’t get a call because he has too much speed privilege‬

  178. NYC-Back-to-Tokyo Oil (Gentleman Backpacker) says:

    flyfish1168: Its OK hockey gods know our PP sucks. Give us goal instead of a PP

    NHL wants more goals, to me a simple tweak would be that if you score on a delayed penalty you get a power play anyway. And call the hacks on McDavid!

  179. Lowetide says:

    After 1

    1-1 tie
    Shots 13-11 Florida
    Corsi 5×5 24-18 Florida

  180. Lowetide says:

    I’ve never understood ‘social justice warriors’ as a putdown. It’s a good thing to fight for those who cannot fight for themselves. The world is weird place now.

  181. flyfish1168 says:

    NYC-Back-to-Tokyo Oil (Gentleman Backpacker):
    Lost in all that, how was there no slashing or cross-checking penalty coming to Trocheck for hacking at McDavid before the goal?

    Its OK hockey gods know our PP sucks. Give us goal intead

    NYC-Back-to-Tokyo Oil (Gentleman Backpacker): NHL wants more goals, to me a simple tweak would be that if you score on a delayed penalty you get a power play anyway.And call the hacks on McDavid!

    I agree. When an infraction happens it should never cancel out if you score.

  182. jp says:

    So rare to see a penalty shot actually awarded. Cool to see Drai score!

    Lowetide:
    I’ve never understood ‘social justice warriors’ as a putdown. It’s a good thing to fight for those who cannot fight for themselves. The world is weird place now.

    +1

  183. OriginalPouzar says:

    Leon is such a stud at hockey!

  184. NYC-Back-to-Tokyo Oil (Gentleman Backpacker) says:

    Drai’s got his motor going again tonight.

  185. JimmyV1965 says:

    NYC-Back-to-Tokyo Oil (Gentleman Backpacker):
    OriginalPouzar,

    I like watching for Barkov. He is a guy I hope Drai can emulate.Drai might be the better passer, but Barkov plays a 200-foot game. Drai could learn a lot from him about play without the puck.

    Yet Drai is the best player on the ice tonight.

  186. Georges says:

    Lowetide:
    I’ve never understood ‘social justice warriors’ as a putdown. It’s a good thing to fight for those who cannot fight for themselves. The world is weird place now.

    +2

    (Now why can’t we agree on hockey?)

  187. OriginalPouzar says:

    I do like the looks of Khaira with Puljijarvi.

  188. NYC-Back-to-Tokyo Oil (Gentleman Backpacker) says:

    That penalty shot goal has energized this team. Great cycle shifts from multiple lines.
    Maroon looks to have the fire back after his goal, too.

    Need to get Lucic and Strome off the schneid next.

  189. Spooky Lynx says:

    Lowetide:
    I’ve never understood ‘social justice warriors’ as a putdown. It’s a good thing to fight for those who cannot fight for themselves. The world is weird place now.

    Right? If anything is worth fighting for it’s social justice.

  190. NYC-Back-to-Tokyo Oil (Gentleman Backpacker) says:

    JimmyV1965: Yet Drai is the best player on the ice tonight.

    Sure, was wondering who would come in to chirp. Drai is having a very good game. Doesn’t mean he still can’t learn something from Barkov’s defensive game.

  191. OriginalPouzar says:

    I think Khaira went to the wrong guy there – took Nurse’s man and Nurse was late reacting to the high guy, the guy the center should have been taking.

  192. JD_Wry says:

    NYC-Back-to-Tokyo Oil (Gentleman Backpacker):
    Talbot probably wants that one back.

    His mates owe him more than 2 goals for, and he needs to have their backs.

  193. OriginalPouzar says:

    Nice tip by Drake!

  194. JD_Wry says:

    Timely.

  195. NYC-Back-to-Tokyo Oil (Gentleman Backpacker) says:

    Pouzar: Right. If the cause is so virtuous it doesn’t offend.
    I don’t hear many Liberal Sports MSM types tweeting for the fight against Pedo rings and Child Sex trafficking for example. Too much stigma I guess.

    I think that’s confusing social justice itself with some of the scumbags associated with it. In every profession in any corner of the world you will find slimy people. That doesn’t make the profession (or cause) itself bad, too.

    Then again, there does seem to be some “I tweeted about it so I helped the cause” type self-back-patting going on these days, too.

    As LT says, weird times.

  196. JD_Wry says:

    JD_Wry:
    Timely.

    Nvmd.

  197. Sighduck says:

    Jeez

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