Hello darkness, my old friend

High among the things Oilers fans should be worrying about (along with the owner suggesting another rebuild and the club trading their 2018 first-round selection without lottery protection) is the hesitation to use Anton Slepyshev in a feature role this season. In the march toward April, giving the young Russian plenty of playing time should be a priority. He sure does score nice goals from left-wing, perhaps that’s a good place to start.

THE ATHLETIC!

Great offer! Includes a free 7-day trial so you can try The Athletic on for size free and see if they enjoy the in-depth, ad-free coverage on the site. If you don’t feel it’s worth the $4.49/month, cancel anytime during trial before getting charged. Offer is here.

THE CIRCLE GAME, YEAR OVER YEAR

  • February 2016: 3-3-0, goal differential 0 (6 points)
  • February 2017: 3-3-0, goal differential -1 (6 points)
  • February 2018: 1-4-1, goal differential -5 (3 points)

As has happened so many times this season, the Oilers are caught in a trap (oooo-oooo-oooo) and can’t walk out. No telling how far they fall at this point, pretty clear the disappointment of losing an entire season is settling in on the roster.

AFTER 55, YEAR OVER YEAR

  • Oilers 15-16: 21-29-5, goal differential -33 (47 points)
  • Oilers 16-17: 29-18-8, goal differential +16 (66 points)
  • Oilers 17-18: 23-28-4, goal differential -28 (50 points)

If the season ended today, Edmonton would draft No. 5 overall before the lottery. I will tell you it’s my opinion Peter Chiarelli won’t survive that outcome as general manager. Ending the season 15-10-2 gets the organization some air in terms of selling next season. Going 7-18-2? I honestly think ownership would have to make a change simply to restore fan faith in the product. Hell, maybe I’m alone on an island here and a bunch of biased fans are giving me their opinion, but from what Oilers Nation is sending me, this club is in a very difficult spot with the client base. Standing pat won’t be an option with a poor finish, in my opinion.

WHAT TO EXPECT FROM FEBRUARY

  • At home to: Colorado, Tampa Bay (Expected 0-1-1) (Actual 1-0-1)
  • On the road to: Los AngelesAnaheimSan Jose (Expected 1-1-1) (Actual 0-3-0)
  • At home to: Florida (Expected 1-0-0) (Actual 0-1-0)
  • On the road to: Vegas, Arizona, Colorado (Expected 2-1-0) (Actual 0-0-0)
  • At home to: Boston, Colorado (Expected 1-1-0) (Actual 0-0-0)
  • On the road to: Los Angeles, Anaheim, San Jose (Expected 0-2-1) (Actual 0-0-0)
  • Overall expected result: 5-6-3, 13 points in 14 games
  • Current results: 1-4-1, three points in six games

Edmonton has seen this kind of start early in previous months, only to recover to my predicted number. Tough schedule ahead, but assuming this team loses five of the final eight games this month would be unwise based on its established past. Weird team this year.

DEFENSE, LAST NIGHT

  • Nurse-Davidson went 23-16 in 18:04 together, 1-1 in GF. Went 8-10 against Huberdreau-Trochek-Malgin, this pairing led the other two with eight own-zone faceoffs. All three pairings had trouble transitioning the puck, but Nurse transports well and he used the wheels often in this game.
  • Klefbom-Russell went 19-15 in 17:01, 2-1 in GF, six defensive zone faceoffs. Klefbom got walked by Trochek on the PP (while playing with Davidson) and Russell backed in like a Trans-X truck at the loading dock five minutes from closing time, and it cost him. Russell also has a hitch in his giddyup passing the puck up to the forwards, Leon wanted to brain him, pretty sure. |Went 10-7 against the Trochek unit.
  • Auvitu-Benning were 14-15 in 11:25, just two own-zone faceoffs and 1-0 GF. Went 7-5 against McGinn-McCann-Mamin. Auvitu makes things happen, so for God sakes don’t use him on the power play! He hasn’t earned it!
  • Cam Talbot stopped 30 of 32 at even strength, .938. I’m not blaming him for the penalty kill any more this season. It is an abomination. Someone call the Catholic church!

FORWARDS, LAST NIGHT

  • Slepyshev-Letestu-Kassian went 12-5, 1-0 GF together. I loved Slepy’s game, he needs to share the puck a little, though. Letestu made some nice passes and generally helped in less than eight minutes. Kassian is engaged and played well to my eye.
  • Caggiula-Khaira-Puljujarvi were 6-6 together, 1-1 GF. A nice goal by the trio, Khaira getting the puck back to the point while both wingers drove to the net looking for a tip. I’d like to see that group again, perhaps more playing time next game.
  • Maroon-McDavid-Strome were 25-19 (Maroon) and 18-17 (Strome) together, 2-0 GF. McDavid and Strome had some chem, enough for this line to return later in the week in my opinion. McDavid was 11-15 with 900 slashes against Trochek, 1-0 GF.
  • Lucic-Draisaitl-Cammalleri were 11-17, 0-1 GF together (Leon scored when with Maroon and McDavid) on the night. I’d like to see Puljujarvi replace Cammalleri on the line.
  • The penalty kill was awful.
  • NaturalStatTrick and NHL.com.

KLEFBOM

  • Todd McLellan: “Some big errors from individuals. I look at the fourth goal, we pre-scouted that, we knew it was coming, we talked about it, and we’re 18 seconds in when we’re fresh, and we get a chance to execute, one individual gets delinquent and misses his assignment, and that’s basically game over.” 

Oscar did look poor on the play, one of several moments where Edmonton didn’t have things hammered down on the penalty kill. The team is playing kid forwards a lot on the PK now, maybe they’ll develop and maybe the won’t develop. It’s a mess. At 5×5, I like this team and I sure as hell believe in Klefbom’s future. If the Oilers trade the Swede for 10 cents on the dollar, you’re looking at further erosion of the top-end young talent. Enormous mistake.

LUCIC

People want him traded or bought out but the options are poor. A buy out is so severe it isn’t worth it, and trade options would involve bringing in other problem deals. Would you deal Lucic for Bobby Ryan?

TALBOT

Lots of rage in the cage for Talbot after last night, I’m no longer buying. The penalty killers resemble Monty Python’s race for people with no sense of direction now, complete imbecilic behaviour. Easy to blame the goalie, and he fell on his sword last night. I’d like this team to try something else, anything else.

  • I’m no longer blaming Talbot for the addled penalty kill
  • The penalty kill can go to hell.

LOWDOWN WITH LOWETIDE

At 10 this morning, TSN1260. CFL free agency will take up much of the morning but we’ll have time to discuss last night’s Oilers loss. Scheduled to appear:

  • Jonathan Willis, The Athletic! Oilers at the deadline and that power play.
  • Scott Cullen, TSN. CFL free agency, half of Canada’s NHL cities are on fire.
  • Davis Sanchez, CFL this week. Former CFL player turned media mogul guides us through free agency.

10-1260 text, @Lowetide on twitter. See you on the radio!

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379 Responses to "Hello darkness, my old friend"

« Older Comments
  1. RonnieB says:

    Bobcaygeon,

    Saad is making $6 million for another 3 years after this one, hasn’t scored in 14 games, has been demoted to the 4th line. I don’t think i would trade my top forward prospect for him no matter how much Chicago retains. Plus Chicago is in their own version of Cap Hell and likely couldn’t retain anything anyway.

  2. Mr. D. says:

    Go puck movers go! Oh ya they need to play defense…somebody in management got sucked in to the fancies.

  3. Woogie63 says:

    Bobcaygeon: Ouch…..Taylor Hall 9 goals and 16 assists in the last 20 game point streak…..

    I really hated that trade but it could be forgiven if the GM brought in value for what went out…The GM really miss judge the NHL..

    hmmm last year we loved Larsson and all those entertaining play-off games

    The Devils missed the play-off with Hall last year and are teeter to miss the play-offs again.

    The Hall lead Devil’s are in 18th place
    the Eberle leader NYI are in 21st place

    Devils and NYI each have 4 more wins than the Oilers and we are having a sh*t year.

  4. Bruce McCurdy says:

    SayItAin'tSo, Gretz, SayItAin'tSo!,

    The Klefbom extension was a Chiarelli transaction, not MacTavish. 2015 September.

  5. OilSafety says:

    I want to bring up Erik Haula again. Las Vegas Golden Knight, has two more years at 2.75m per.

    Good on PK, has speed, plays 3rd line center and left wing.

    26 years old, and by the way he’s also Finnish.

    The Knights have flexibility in their roster with Karlsson, and could make him available.

    Hes at 40 (21g) points on the season already, which is a spike for him. It would be a case of buying high, but from a team that values assets for the future and offers a perfect fit for 3C with flexibility to play LW.

  6. Pouzar says:

    Klefbom’s name is out there. It would sooooo Oilers to trade low on a guy tha has been (and still maybe) playing hurt. Jezzuz H can we give the keys of this team to the adults now?

  7. JD_Wry says:

    OilSafety: I want to bring up Erik Haula again.

    Only if he changes his first name to Taylor.

  8. OilSafety says:

    JD_Wry: Only if he changes his first name to Taylor.

    made me lol

  9. SayItAin'tSo, Gretz, SayItAin'tSo! says:

    Bruce McCurdy,

    Apologies, I got my timeline mixed up.

    I believe the part about it being a risk due o the injury history still stands though.

  10. Pouzar says:

    JD_Wry: Only if he changes his first name to Taylor.

    “Haula if ya hear me!”

  11. Pink Socks says:

    Two and a half minutes to go we ice the puck with an exhausted McDavid and Draisaitl on the ice so they are forced to stay out. Drai wins the draw and a fast breakout occurs which led to a turnover and inability to get Draisaitl and McDavid off the ice. This would have been the time for a Russell reset as the Panthers were retreating to the neutral zone to protect the lead.

    Fast forward a minute, 90-ish seconds left on the clock, fresh legs are on the ice, down by a goal, and we have our defense passing the puck back and forth in their own zone. Last night was the summit of my frustration in regards to moving the puck up ice.

    I believe: Klefbom, Benning, Nurse, healthy-Sekera, and Larsson (proven in NJ) are effective puck movers.

    I also believe: These players are coached to perform slow, controlled movements up ice to “set it up”. This kills any puck-moving ability.

    This is such a tire fire I don’t even know where to begin. This is not an effective strategy in the NHL and there have been no adjustments made. My theory is that while an offensively gifted defenseman would be beneficial, this coaching staff is killing offensive instinct among defenseman to quickly move the puck up ice. The transition game is almost as bad as the special teams.

  12. OriginalPouzar says:

    Here is a post in another forum that I frequent (and have for 12 years). I’m sure many of you will take it with a grain of salt but I’ve known this poster for a decade plus and believe every word he says. He was in the owners box for the game last night and here is his post:

    ___________________________

    So – owners box was definitely interesting last night. Watched the game next to 99, 4 and 7 until midway through the 3rd.

    Daly was also there as well as some OEG folks and some of the other second tier boys on the bus.

    I don’t think it’s my place to post a lot of details here given I was a guest in a pretty special environment but I can say that without question, 7 and 99 are not happy with roster decisions, Ice time and who plays with who and apparently the locker room is insanely negative.

    They were fairly critical also of Russel and Lucic .

    One detail was a sequence where Connor was on the ice with Russel, Russel had the puck a couple of times and 7 kept saying, expletive Russel , Connor wants the puck, know who you are on the ice with. There were other moments where 7 was especially critical of match ups, etc.

    Lucic – 99 made the comment that he skates like Semenko lol.

    That’s all I’ll share but it was interesting to be a fly on the wall last night. Lots of unhappy people.

  13. godot10 says:

    ashley:
    One of the problems in the Taylor Hall era was the lack of structure he played with.That was always his style, so not his fault at all.He needed guidance and a firm hand to get him playing with the rest of the team.From what I understand, there were three decent coaches (Quinn, Renney, Eakins) who all had their structure fail because Hall was doing his own thing out there.That’s not unusual for a young superstar player, but the problem was that the coaches had no back up to discipline him with ice time, healthy scratch, or otherwise to get him in line.The structure won’t work of one guy is free wheeling on his own.The Boys on the Bus say to leave Taylor alone and so the saga goes on indefinitely with the coach’s hands tied.

    You could see the frustrations boiling over between Hall and Eakins on the bench with the water bottle incident.Eakins was angry, stuck between a rock and a hard place, and takes out his anger with management on the golden boy he’s not allowed to discipline for not playing the structure.

    So the party line became, unfairly, that Taylor Hall was not a good teammate or a locker room problem. This is a Boys on the Bus problem.

    Before he died, someone on here overheard Quinn talking to some people in the restaurant (shortly after he was fired) about the Oilers, and Quinn said “That organization’s problems go all the way to the top”.

    A coach must be given free reign to discipline and give out ice time as he sees fit.Sometimes as punishment, sometimes as reward.MacTavish was the last that had that, and he was our last truly successful coach.Look what he did with such a marginal roster.

    Pat Quinn never coached Taylor Hall or Jordan Eberle.

  14. godot10 says:

    ashley:
    Since Lowe , MacT, Buchberger, and Gretzky aren’t going anywhere, I suspect it will take a BOTB head coach to overcome this problem.One of their own will be left alone to coach properly.

    Rather than roster changes, this is perhaps what we should be hoping for to salvage the amazing talent on this roster.

    Buchberger is an assistant coach for the Islanders.

  15. Pink Socks says:

    Fan of Lucic, glad he chose to sign in Edmonton, love what he brings when he is fully engaged. That being said, the puck dies on his stick. Constantly. If Slepyshev had half of the unforced errors and giveaways he would be in Bakersfield. Just because he carries a $6m cap hit doesn’t mean a warm seat in the press box wouldn’t do him some good.

  16. The Trade Guy says:

    The Six Ring Circus is running double shifts these days boys.

  17. Pink Socks says:

    OriginalPouzar:
    Here is a post in another forum that I frequent (and have for 12 years).I’m sure many of you will take it with a grain of salt but I’ve known this poster for a decade plus and believe every word he says.He was in the owners box for the game last night and here is his post:

    ___________________________

    So – owners box was definitely interesting last night. Watched the game next to 99, 4 and 7 until midway through the 3rd.

    Daly was also there as well as some OEG folks and some of the other second tier boys on the bus.

    I don’t think it’s my place to post a lot of details here given I was a guest in a pretty special environment but I can say that without question, 7 and 99 are not happy with roster decisions, Ice time and who plays with who and apparently the locker room is insanely negative.

    They were fairly critical also of Russel and Lucic .

    One detail was a sequence where Connor was on the ice with Russel, Russel had the puck a couple of times and 7 kept saying, expletive Russel , Connor wants the puck, know who you are on the ice with. There were other moments where 7 was especially critical of match ups, etc.

    Lucic – 99 made the comment that he skates like Semenko lol.

    That’s all I’ll share but it was interesting to be a fly on the wall last night. Lots of unhappy people.

    Very interesting, thank you for that. It’s good to hear that it’s not just the LT’ers that see the game completely different than the coaching staff.

  18. Yeti says:

    OriginalPouzar: Here is a post in another forum that I frequent (and have for 12 years). I’m sure many of you will take it with a grain of salt but I’ve known this poster for a decade plus and believe every word he says. He was in the owners box for the game last night and here is his post:

    Presuming it is genuine, he won’t be a guest in the owner’s box for long if he can’t keep his trap shut.

  19. jtblack says:

    Whatever happened to our 3 – 3rd Rounders from 2016?
    Niemelainen; Cairns & Berglund?

  20. godot10 says:

    SayItAin'tSo, Gretz, SayItAin'tSo!:
    OilClog,

    So the coach calling out Klef. Let’s discuss the full circumstances here.

    1) The game was tied, the Oilers just gave up a late period penalty and needed to kill it off. They had a chance to win this game.

    2) based on the coaches verbal the team went over the specific play that Yandle ran during the intermission and noted that the Panthers love to use that play.

    3) Coach puts Oscar out there because he trusts him in a PK role in a tied game while the team is on a 3 game losing streak where they could have won all three save for defensive and PK collapses.

    Result: Oscar goes out, drastically overcommits on the play that according to the coach they just discussed and the team is down a goal chasing, 18 seconds into the frame.

    The organization committed $4+ million and 7 years to Oscar despite his injury problems in every single year except last year. Huge gamble by MacT I think we can agree? Oscar played great last year and has taken a step back this year (for a variety of reasons known and unknown). The coach gives him the responsibility to kill that penalty and he blows the coverage.

    This analysis/commentary will almost surely be taken as crapping on a player but that’s not it. You can go back and check out my preseason guesses, I thought Klef had/has top pairing potential, it appears that I drastically overestimated him myself. The coach proved he had faith in Oscar by putting him out there to kill that penalty (according to Godot defensive play is what oscar is best at), they addressed what was likely to happen and with all of that in mind. Klef got burned and burned pretty badly.

    There are many times today where folks on this blog are upset at the coaches system. That’s fair.

    But in this case we have an example where the coaches outlined almost to a t exactly what would happen, the player failed to execute and today the coach is still at fault.

    This is a no win situation for the coach and as fans we can say whatever we like and pontificate on whatever we like.

    But it sure seems lik a damned if you do damned if you don’t situation.

    I wish them all well in their next endeavours.

    Maybe Quenville will get through to the Oilers, maybe he’ll be able to keep the room. But I wouldn’t bet on it. Just as Oiler fans run players out of town over the last decades something continues to run coaches out of town.

    The coach throws a player under the bus and absolves himself of any responsibility for the season. Man, that is a coach I would crawl out of a trench for…er…NOT!

    Strome also had the wrong leverage on Trocheck, which facilitated the play in the first place. He has to deny Trocheck the path he took.

    Why is the team most highly paid defender dressed last night sitting on the bench while a waiver pickup is killing the penalty at the start of a period? Russell is earning $5 million this year…

  21. Sighduck says:

    jtblack:
    Whatever happened to our 3 – 3rd Rounders from 2016?
    Niemelainen; Cairns & Berglund?

    I might be wrong but I thought Neimelainen and Cairns were projected as projects (lack of offense) but Berglund if I remember correctly is tracking well overseas?

  22. JimmyV1965 says:

    Material pocession: Yes!And to expand on that, you live and die with your goalie and special teams.

    👍

  23. jtblack says:

    Sighduck: I might be wrong but I thought Neimelainen and Cairns were projected as projects (lack of offense) but Berglund if I remember correctly is tracking well overseas?

    I hadn’t heard anything, so was just curious.

  24. Pink Socks says:

    Sighduck: I might be wrong but I thought Neimelainen and Cairns were projected as projects (lack of offense) but Berglund if I remember correctly is tracking well overseas?

    I believe this is accurate.

  25. OriginalPouzar says:

    jtblack:
    Whatever happened to our 3 – 3rd Rounders from 2016?
    Niemelainen; Cairns & Berglund?

    Berglund is have a very nice year in the SEL – he’s got the trust of his coach and his minutes are way up from last year.

    I believe he’ll be staying in Sweden for another year (he’s signed for one more year) prior to coming over to North America.

    We should see Lagesson (who has an NHL contract) come to North America next season – should be a good addition to the Condors.

  26. OriginalPouzar says:

    godot10: The coach throws a player under the bus and absolves himself of any responsibility for the season.Man, that is a coach I would crawl out of a trench for…er…NOT!

    In his post game media avail, the coach was very express that the coaching staff made numerous mistakes last night.

  27. Pink Socks says:

    godot10: The coach throws a player under the bus and absolves himself of any responsibility for the season.Man, that is a coach I would crawl out of a trench for…er…NOT!

    Strome also had the wrong leverage on Trocheck, which facilitated the play in the first place.He has to deny Trocheck the path he took.

    Why is the team most highly paid defender dressed last night sitting on the bench while a waiver pickup is killing the penalty at the start of a period?Russell is earning $5 million this year…

    Yes, Klef overcomitted, but your point on Strome is also a MAJOR issue. Strome is equally resposible for this goal. Curious why he didn’t receive any flak.

    Puljujarvi coasted back into the zone on Malgin’s second period goal leaving him all alone in the slot.

    Russell backed almost all the way into Talbot on Dadonov’s first goal, giving him a free path to the net. No responsibility there either?

    TMac if calling out players needs to spread it out; many mistakes cause many goals. Talbot as horrible as well. Or, TMac could call out himself about his 30th in the league PP with 97 and 29 on the roster, or his 31st in the league PK.

  28. StixMalone says:

    OriginalPouzar:
    Here is a post in another forum that I frequent (and have for 12 years).I’m sure many of you will take it with a grain of salt but I’ve known this poster for a decade plus and believe every word he says.He was in the owners box for the game last night and here is his post:

    ___________________________

    So – owners box was definitely interesting last night. Watched the game next to 99, 4 and 7 until midway through the 3rd.

    Daly was also there as well as some OEG folks and some of the other second tier boys on the bus.

    I don’t think it’s my place to post a lot of details here given I was a guest in a pretty special environment but I can say that without question, 7 and 99 are not happy with roster decisions, Ice time and who plays with who and apparently the locker room is insanely negative.

    They were fairly critical also of Russel and Lucic .

    One detail was a sequence where Connor was on the ice with Russel, Russel had the puck a couple of times and 7 kept saying, expletive Russel , Connor wants the puck, know who you are on the ice with. There were other moments where 7 was especially critical of match ups, etc.

    Lucic – 99 made the comment that he skates like Semenko lol.

    That’s all I’ll share but it was interesting to be a fly on the wall last night. Lots of unhappy people.

    The fans around where I was seated were up in arms all evening pointing out little things that this team continuously do bad. I was at That game that the fans absolutely destroyed Justin Schultz. That was a vocal evening I’ll never forget. Last night was pretty close but anger directed at more than one player being the difference. Mob mentality.

    The boys on the bus see what’s going on and should be working to resolve those issues. Talk to Chia and coaches. If coaches and management can’t get along and work on the same page how do you expect the on ice product to be any different?

    Sometimes the more things change the more it stays the same.

    I’m with O.P. I am looking forward to the deadline more than ever. This could be the defining moment in Chia’s career. If he’s still here after then…..

  29. JimmyV1965 says:

    godot10: The coach throws a player under the bus and absolves himself of any responsibility for the season.Man, that is a coach I would crawl out of a trench for…er…NOT!

    Strome also had the wrong leverage on Trocheck, which facilitated the play in the first place.He has to deny Trocheck the path he took.

    Why is the team most highly paid defender dressed last night sitting on the bench while a waiver pickup is killing the penalty at the start of a period?Russell is earning $5 million this year…

    I’m not defending Tmac, but since when is calling out a player in public throwing him under the bus? Maybe he should do more of that.

  30. Pink Socks says:

    OriginalPouzar: In his post game media avail, the coach was very express that the coaching staff made numerous mistakes last night.

    I watched it but believe a majority was fluff. He said it to nicely criticize the non delay of game missed call.

  31. Bad Seed says:

    StixMalone: The fans around where I was seated were up in arms all evening pointing out little things that this team continuously do bad. I was at That game that the fans absolutely destroyed Justin Schultz. That was a vocal evening I’ll never forget. Last night was pretty close but anger directed at more than one player being the difference. Mob mentality.

    The boys on the bus see what’s going on and should be workingto resolve those issues. Talk to Chia and coaches. If coaches and management can’t get along and work on the same page how do you expect the on ice product to be any different?

    Sometimes the more things change the more it stays the same.

    I’m with O.P.I am looking forward to the deadline more than ever. This could be the defining moment in Chia’s career. If he’s still here after then…..

    I’m thinking Pete has had enough “defining moments in his career” that I’m nervous about his next one…

  32. Cameron says:

    Man, coming around here these days is drinking schadenfreude from a firehose

    I’d gloat more, but I’m seeing the word ‘rebuild’ being used non-ironically, and there is only so much Oiler agony I can enjoy at once

  33. Sighduck says:

    OriginalPouzar,

    What the Oil really need is a surprise plug and play season from a prospect next year. I can’t remember the last time a prospect came out of nowhere to play a significant NHL role but we are seeing it more and more from other teams.

    Look at the Boston lineup, half of the forward roster are prospects that most nobody would have thought could contribute to such a successful team so quickly. The Bruin’s top 2 RHD are picks from the last few drafts…

    Berglund is one of those prospects with a good trend overseas that could be a candidate to surprise

  34. OriginalPouzar says:

    Mitch Callahan has been suspended for 20 games for violating the terms of the AHL/PHPA Performance Enhancing Substances Program.

  35. Bobcaygeon says:

    Woogie63: hmmm last year we loved Larsson and all those entertaining play-off games

    The Devils missed the play-off with Hall last year and are teeter to miss the play-offs again.

    The Hall lead Devil’s are in 18th place
    the Eberle leader NYI are in 21st place

    Devils and NYIeach have 4 more wins than the Oilers and we are having a sh*t year.

    This is nonsense….
    It doesn’t matter what team those two players are playing for or the standings…
    Gretzky went to the last place L.A Kings did it somehow de-value his worth…

    It wasn’t a good trades when it happened or during the Oilers playoff run and even now, both those trades in fact rank right up there with the Reinhardt deal.

  36. Pescador says:

    OriginalPouzar:
    Mitch Callahan has been suspended for 20 games for violating the terms of the AHL/PHPA Performance Enhancing Substances Program.

    Damned California hippies

  37. Pescador says:

    Taylor Haula came skate on my team any day of the week

  38. Bobcaygeon says:

    RonnieB:
    Bobcaygeon,

    Saad is making $6 million for another 3 years after this one, hasn’t scored in 14 games, has been demoted to the 4th line. I don’t think i would trade my top forward prospect for him no matter how much Chicago retains. Plus Chicago is in their own version of Cap Hell and likely couldn’t retain anything anyway.

    This is why I think it’s a prime opportunity for Chiarelli to do the deal. Chiarelli sold low on both Hall and Eberle and this might be the chance to buy low on a player having a down year.

    Chicago can handle a 3M cap hit or they can keep a 6M cap hit, I think it’s doable and I also think he can have a real bounce back year, bonus would be a good Maroon replacement.

  39. Sighduck says:

    Bobcaygeon: This is nonsense….
    It doesn’t matter what team those two players are playing for or the standings…
    Gretzky went to the last place L.A Kings did it somehow de-value his worth…

    It wasn’t a good trades when it happened or during the Oilers playoff run and even now, both those trades in fact rank right up there with the Reinhardt deal.

    I think what you said is entirely true until you said those trades are close with the Reinhart deal. Those trades at least brought some form of value back to the organisation while everyone can agree that the Reinhart deal was a complete miss and for most posters here that is not revisionist history.

  40. Jethro Tull says:

    Cameron:
    Man, coming around here these days is drinking schadenfreude from a firehose

    I’d gloat more, but I’m seeing the word ‘rebuild’ being used non-ironically, and there is only so much Oiler agony I can enjoy at once

    Foxtrot Oscar, Gloaty McGloatface.

  41. Gayfish says:

    RonnieB:
    Bobcaygeon,

    Saad is making $6 million for another 3 years after this one, hasn’t scored in 14 games, has been demoted to the 4th line. I don’t think i would trade my top forward prospect for him no matter how much Chicago retains. Plus Chicago is in their own version of Cap Hell and likely couldn’t retain anything anyway.

    Unless you are losing Lucic, I’m not sure we can do the deal.

  42. Pescador says:

    Cameron:
    Man, coming around here these days is drinking schadenfreude from a firehose

    I’d gloat more, but I’m seeing the word ‘rebuild’ being used non-ironically, and there is only so much Oiler agony I can enjoy at once

    You would think a flame fan would be a little sheepish atm.
    MS on the IR, I don’t like your odds.
    Nothing will be more enjoyable then watching Cgy finish in 9th this spring,
    maybe 10th

  43. threeputtdouble says:

    I don’t know about throwing Klef under the bus. But he did blow that play, terrible brainless error; it was a big play if anyone still cares about games, and unless TMac is lying that they specifically practiced it and looked for it then that’s really poor on Klef. Yes, it’s only one play. But it’s reflective of overall poor performance all year.

    This is a player that is supposed to be at the bargain stage of his contract. Top pairing D playing for under market. It’s not working out that way and aside from Talbot this is the most disappointing season of any Oiler. Does anyone think he has looked like a 1-2 D this year?

    Maybe it’s injuries, maybe he’ll recover and return to what he looked like being. That seems a big bet at this point. I would never have said this a year ago but trading him for somebody promising has to be thinkable now.

  44. who says:

    Bobcaygeon:
    I wonder if Saad could be gotten out of Chicago and Chicago retaining half his salary for Jesse?

    I make that trade..

    That is a horrible idea.
    Would you have traded Drai, after his 19 year old season , for todays Saad?

  45. Bank Shot says:

    IS it still possible to find IPP for players somewhere on the web?

  46. fifthcartel says:

    Bob Nicholson on Sportsnet 590: “”If we could add another top defenceman that’d be good””

    What top defenceman did they add?

  47. LadiesloveSmid says:

    Cameron:
    Man, coming around here these days is drinking schadenfreude from a firehose

    I’d gloat more, but I’m seeing the word ‘rebuild’ being used non-ironically, and there is only so much Oiler agony I can enjoy at once

    Are the flames even making the playoffs after selling off their 1st+2nd+? Up in the air

    I could be critical of the oilers all day and still know they’ve got a better outlook than the flames. 4 more years of Gaudreau to contend.

  48. Bobcaygeon says:

    Sighduck: I think what you said is entirely true until you said those trades are close with the Reinhart deal. Those trades at least brought some form of value back to the organisation while everyone can agree that the Reinhart deal was a complete miss and for most posters here that is not revisionist history.

    I’ll agree to an extent….
    In all three trades we lost value, in some cases more than others but all trades value going out didn’t replace what came in….
    I’d argue that the way Hall is playing right now is almost on the level of McDavid ( ten points behind) certainly better than Draisaitl, would anyone here trade Draisaitl for Larsson?
    I think the Hall trade was equal to or worse than Rienhart deal.

  49. NYC-Back-to-Tokyo Oil (Gentleman Backpacker) says:

    Lots of good comments here today. Plenty of good thoughts.

    To my buddy The Hop
    You listed Eriksson, Ryan, Weber, Suter etc. as names to consider in a Lucic swap.

    Left-handed or not if Chiarelli can turn Lucic into Ryan Suter then I will forgive him for the Hall for Larsson swap. Still leaves the Reinhart for Barzal and Carlo deal but hey Rome was not built in a day.

  50. maudite says:

    godot10: Buchberger is an assistant coach for the Islanders.

    This is great! Reading these responses feels like the internal dialogue that goes on in my brain whenever I’m driving and listening to the later night call ins on 1260.

  51. Bobcaygeon says:

    who: That is a horrible idea.
    Would you have traded Drai, after his 19 year old season , for todays Saad?

    I was on this very web site saying anything over 7.5M I’d look at trading Draisaitl for MacKinnon.
    Having said that, Draisaitl was a far better prospect at 19 than JP is right now, having said that, we’re not talking about Draisaitl for Saad were talking about JP for Saad, I’m sorry but I’m not sold JP will be 50 point player, Saad is…

  52. thehop says:

    Cameron,

    Fuck off

  53. OmJo says:

    Bobcaygeon,

    It’s beating a dead horse. A dead horse that has risen up as a zombie and is terrorizing the town. It was one step forward (getting a good RD) and two steps back (trading a top 3 LW in the game today), compounded by the Eberle trade a year later, and finalized with the RNH trade to come.

    Was it worse than the GR trade? At least in the Hall trade we got an NHL defenceman back, and a good 2RD at that. We literally have nothing to show for the GR trade. Barzal might end up just as good or better than Hall, even. And the fact we weren’t even going to take him makes the trade all the worse, it’s not just a fail by the pro-scouts but the amateur scouts, too. Or whoever made the decision not to draft him.

  54. Lowetide says:

    jtblack:
    Whatever happened to our 3 – 3rd Rounders from 2016?
    Niemelainen; Cairns & Berglund?

    Berglund is tracking well.

  55. Sighduck says:

    Bobcaygeon: I’ll agree to an extent….
    In all three trades we lost value, in some cases more than others but all trades value going out didn’t replace what came in….
    I’d argue that the way Hall is playing right now is almost on the level of McDavid ( ten points behind) certainly better than Draisaitl, would anyone here trade Draisaitl for Larsson?
    I think the Hall trade was equal to or worse than Rienhart deal.

    I think that is the difference of opinion, I would value Drai slighly more than Hall due to length of team control, age, and positional advantage but at this point that argument comes down to the subjective valuing of players. I can see what you mean with rather than looking at the fact that the Reinhart deal brought us 0 value, the gap in value between Hall – Larsson swap might be equal in lost value even if I don’t agree entirely that the values are similar.

  56. JimmyV1965 says:

    Sighduck:
    OriginalPouzar,

    What the Oil really need is a surprise plug and play season from a prospect next year. I can’t remember the last time a prospect came out of nowhere to play a significant NHL role but we are seeing it more and more from other teams.

    Look at the Boston lineup, half of the forward roster are prospects that most nobody would have thought could contribute to such a successful team so quickly. The Bruin’s top 2 RHD are picks from the last few drafts…

    Berglund is one of those prospects with a good trend overseas that could be a candidate to surprise

    I have no idea when we had a rookie come out of nowhere. Seriously. Must be decades.

  57. NYC-Back-to-Tokyo Oil (Gentleman Backpacker) says:

    I have been slowly coming around to the viewpoint that as much as Chia is to blame for this circa 2011 style team that is inexplicably bottom 5 while having major cap issues, the coaches need to go.

    The special teams are awful and there is not a single good reason at this point to have Cammy playing 19 minutes over Puljujarvi at 10.

    The top 2 lines need more speed. Let’s find out what we have with the remaining 27 games.

    Slepyshev-McDavid-Strome
    Maroon-Draisaitl-Puljujarvi
    Lucic-Khaira-Kassian
    Caggiula-Letestu-Cammalleri

    Once Nuge comes back and the deadline passes
    Slepyshev-McDavid-Strome
    Nuge-Draisaitl-Puljujarvi
    Lucic-Khaira-Kassian
    Caggiula-Malone-Pakarinen

  58. OmJo says:

    Woogie63: The Hall lead Devil’s are in 18th place
    the Eberle leader NYI are in 21st place

    And the McDavid lead Oilers are 27th place.

    Point?

  59. NYC-Back-to-Tokyo Oil (Gentleman Backpacker) says:

    I would be okay with GM by committee until a good hire comes available. It’s not that I hate Chia. I disagreed with his moves and decisions at the time but I said he was a mediocre GM, far better than Tambo and TMac so I would give him the benefit of the doubt until this season was done and he had a chance to mould this into his team.

    He has moulded, almost all players are new that he brought in. The season is over early. The team is bottom 5. The team is up against the cap and he has no good explanations and says he can’t make trades cause no one wants to help him.

    Unfortunately Lucic isn’t 2011 Lucic. Russell is left-handed and can’t transition the puck and Talbot is not Tim Thomas. Move over Pete, you are done.

    Clear out Howson and MacT (unlikely I know), have Keith Gretzky temporarily take the reins, hire Quenneville

    Q will command respect. Not only that but he has brought along DeBrincat and Schmaltz quite well this year. I watched. He can work with Pulju and Yamamoto.

    When a good, smart GM candidate comes along, add him to the mix, preferably an analytic type. He and Keith can GM together bouncing ideas off each other.

  60. Sighduck says:

    JimmyV1965: I have no idea when we had a rookie come out of nowhere. Seriously. Must be decades.

    We are definitely overdue for a pleasant surprise!

  61. GMB3 says:

    JimmyV1965: I’m not defending Tmac, but since when is calling out a player in public throwing him under the bus? Maybe he should do more of that.

    …. what?

  62. Sighduck says:

    NYC-Back-to-Tokyo Oil (Gentleman Backpacker),

    I want the Isles to trade the flames 1st for Patty Maroon and our second, Flames miss the playoffs and win the lottery giving us first overall! Imagine the uproar if EDM got the flames first 1st overall pick!

    Go Bruins indeed

  63. Bobcaygeon says:

    NYC-Back-to-Tokyo Oil (Gentleman Backpacker):
    I would be okay with GM by committee until a good hire comes available. It’s not that I hate Chia. I disagreed with his moves and decisions at the time but I said he was a mediocre GM, far better than Tambo and TMac so I would give him the benefit of the doubt until this season was done and he had a chance to mould this into his team.

    He has moulded, almost all players are new that he brought in. The season is over early. The team is bottom 5. The team is up against the cap and he has no good explanations and says he can’t make trades cause no one wants to help him.

    Unfortunately Lucic isn’t 2011 Lucic. Russell is left-handed and can’t transition the puck and Talbot is not Tim Thomas. Move over Pete, you are done.

    Clear out Howson and MacT (unlikely I know), have Keith Gretzky temporarily take the reins, hire Quenneville

    Q will command respect. Not only that but he has brought along DeBrincat and Schmaltz quite well this year. I watched. He can work with Pulju and Yamamoto.

    When a good, smart GM candidate comes along, add him to the mix, preferably an analytic type. He and Keith can GM together bouncing ideas off each other.

    I’ll say this about McTavish, he drafted well and found value in analytics, Tambellini might have waited the Oilers to success!

    I honestly think one of the Gretzky’s will be the next GM.

  64. OmJo says:

    Sighduck: Imagine the uproar if EDM got the flames first 1st overall pick!

    This.

  65. OmJo says:

    Bobcaygeon,

    Most likely K Gretzky. I would be shocked if it was W. If not K Gretz, probably Messier as an interim until they find somebody else.

    He was an assistant with the Islanders under Sather so he probably learned a thing or two.

  66. Bobcaygeon says:

    Sighduck:
    NYC-Back-to-Tokyo Oil (Gentleman Backpacker),

    I want the Isles to trade the flames 1st for Patty Maroon and our second, Flames miss the playoffs and win the lottery giving us first overall! Imagine the uproar if EDM got the flames first 1st overall pick!

    Go Bruins indeed

    This would be fantastic if that happened! What a show that would be!

  67. NYC-Back-to-Tokyo Oil (Gentleman Backpacker) says:

    Bobcaygeon: I’ll say this about McTavish, he drafted well and found value in analytics, Tambellini might have waited the Oilers to success!

    I honestly think one of the Gretzky’s will be the next GM.

    MacTavish’ hamartia was pro scouting, especially on D. ‘Reasonably comfortable’ will live in infamy along with Lowe’s hubris ‘if that’s ever a concern’

    Agreed he did some good things drafting, then again, there isn’t a ton to show for that aspect at the moment, either. Slepyshev is the main prize. I am not counting drafting Nurse at the spot he was meant to be drafted. Leon over Bennett– good job MacT.

  68. NYC-Back-to-Tokyo Oil (Gentleman Backpacker) says:

    OmJo:
    Bobcaygeon,

    Most likely K Gretzky. I would be shocked if it was W. If not K Gretz, probably Messier as an interim until they find somebody else.

    He was an assistant with the Islanders under Sather so he probably learned a thing or two.

    Perhaps he even learned the difference between Manhattan and Long Island! 😉 Sorry, could not resist being a dink.

  69. Melman says:

    NYC-Back-to-Tokyo Oil (Gentleman Backpacker),

    Coaches are far easier to replace than GMs.

    What should be most terrifying for Oiler fans is the idea of the same GM sitting at the draft table in June who managed to:

    1) build a team around McDavid during his ELC look like it’s sole playoff appearance was a one-off based primarily on luck;
    2) traded away all kinds of skill and assets;
    3) in 3 short years boxed the team into cap problems (clearly not learning from mistakes in Beantown); and
    4) failed to foresee the direction the league was changing toward.

    Hard to fathom that after 3 years of Connor the team is still a bottom dweller with a loooooong way to go

  70. Melman says:

    NYC-Back-to-Tokyo Oil (Gentleman Backpacker),

    hamartia – had to look that up! cool word, thanks 🙂

  71. OmJo says:

    MacTavish isn’t sinless himself as GM. Firing Krueger via Skype and allowing the Eakins fiasco to go as long as it did, and playing hard to get with Petry (giving General Disappointment an excuse for the Hall trade) cost this team dearly. Throwing Dubnyk under the bus before the season even started was as stupid as announcing Jultz a future Norris candidate and thinking Nikitin could still play at an NHL level. Baby sitting Nelson was just weird.

    The Oilers don’t only leak prospects, they leak coaches, too. Those two did incredible work considering the rosters they were given. Sigh.

  72. NYC-Back-to-Tokyo Oil (Gentleman Backpacker) says:

    Melman,

    Agreed on all counts. I took some flak around here a year ago for saying Chia was mediocre/average. By the same token I was willing to wait for the full results of this season, with the team built to his vision, before saying he needed to go.

    I think it’s time. Let Keith run the draft and let them GM by committee until a good candidate, the best candidate comes along. Give Q 10 million or whatever he wants to come here and coach.

  73. Bobcaygeon says:

    OmJo:
    Bobcaygeon,

    It’s beating a dead horse. A dead horse that has risen up as a zombie and is terrorizing the town. It was one step forward (getting a good RD) and two steps back (trading a top 3 LW in the game today), compounded by the Eberle trade a year later, and finalized with the RNH trade to come.

    Was it worse than the GR trade? At least in the Hall trade we got an NHL defenceman back, and a good 2RD at that. We literally have nothing to show for the GR trade. Barzal might end up just as good or better than Hall, even. And the fact we weren’t even going to take him makes the trade all the worse, it’s not just a fail by the pro-scouts but the amateur scouts, too. Or whoever made the decision not to draft him.

    I do agree with this, I will admit the Riehart deal was just as much of an indictment of the whole group as well as the GM, it might rank as the worst trade in Oilers history (Gretzky was sold) and the value givin up could be the greatest of all Chiarelli trades.

  74. OmJo says:

    NYC-Back-to-Tokyo Oil (Gentleman Backpacker): Perhaps he even learned the difference between Manhattan and Long Island! 😉 Sorry, could not resist being a dink.

    “There’s one other guy in hockey today who has lived in New York City longer than me, I think I know a thing or two about the state.”

    Tbh “New York” confuses the hell out of me lol..

  75. godot10 says:

    Bobcaygeon: I’ll say this about McTavish, he drafted well and found value in analytics, Tambellini might have waited the Oilers to success!

    I honestly think one of the Gretzky’s will be the next GM.

    How did MacT draft well? He got high first round picks right. Tambellini did that too. His later round picks have had no impact. Slepyshev is the post first round guy hanging around. For Tambellini, Pitlick and Lander and Marincin and Khaira and Davidson at least bounced around the bottom of NHL rosters.

  76. NYC-Back-to-Tokyo Oil (Gentleman Backpacker) says:

    Melman:
    NYC-Back-to-Tokyo Oil (Gentleman Backpacker),

    hamartia – had to look that up!cool word, thanks

    Good to brush up on Greek tragedies when being a fan of the Oilers. This team sometimes makes me want to claw my eyes out.

  77. OmJo says:

    Bobcaygeon: I do agree with this, I will admit the Riehart deal was just as much of an indictment of the whole group as well as the GM, it might rank as the worst trade in Oilers history (Gretzky was sold)and the value givin up could be the greatest of all Chiarelli trades.

    So basically… General Disappointment made 2 of the 3 worst trades in the history of this franchise in the span of 3 fucking days!!!! Two of the worst trades if you don’t consider the Gretzky sale a trade.

    Sorry for the foul language but it’s honestly maddening to think about.

  78. Bank Shot says:

    Melman:
    NYC-Back-to-Tokyo Oil (Gentleman Backpacker),

    1) build a team around McDavid during his ELC look like it’s sole playoff appearance was a one-off based primarily on luck;

    I’d say this season is more unlucky than last season was lucky.

    The Oilers are basically even this year in ES and like -28 on special teams.

    How do you analytics 1st on the road PK and 31st at home (By a million miles)???

    What kind of math gives you something to work with there?

  79. Bobcaygeon says:

    NYC-Back-to-Tokyo Oil (Gentleman Backpacker): MacTavish’ hamartia was pro scouting, especially on D. ‘Reasonably comfortable’ will live in infamy along with Lowe’s hubris ‘if that’s ever a concern’

    Agreed he did some good things drafting, then again, there isn’t a ton to show for that aspect at the moment, either. Slepyshev is the main prize. I am not counting drafting Nurse at the spot he was meant to be drafted. Leon over Bennett– good job MacT.

    I should clarify that Mac made good first round choices, Draisaitl over Bennett or Nurse over Ristolainen a RHD or my preferred pick Horvat.

  80. NYC-Back-to-Tokyo Oil (Gentleman Backpacker) says:

    OmJo,

    Haha. It’s yeah, quite a big state. Even more confusing with the Isles playing in Brooklyn at the moment.

    It’s amazing how many people plan on Oiler or Canuck or Flame roadtrips in NY and pick NYR, NYI and BUF. Buffalo being a 7 hour drive away and all.

    NJD is the 3rd you want.

    NYC is Manhattan, The Bronx, Queens, Brooklyn, Staten Island.
    The Islanders currently play in Brooklyn, which is technically on Long Island but no one calls Brooklyn Long Island. You get out past the 5 Boroughs to the East and you’re on Long Island. Nassau County Coliseum is Long Island. The Hamptons, Montauk, etc. Great Gatsby Country. That’s Long Island.

  81. Bobcaygeon says:

    godot10: How did MacT draft well?He got high first round picks right.Tambellini did that too.His later round picks have had no impact. Slepyshev is the post first round guy hanging around. For Tambellini, Pitlick and Lander and Marincin and Khaira and Davidson at least bounced around the bottom of NHL rosters.

    I should have said in the first round, despite what a lot of people were saying who was the concensus pick in Draisaitl draft, I believe it was Bennett and Nurse despite a big push for Ristolainen and Horvat

  82. godot10 says:

    I find it difficult to blame Chiarelli alone for the Hall and Reinhart trades. Chiarelli inherited a management group that coveted Reinhart, and a management group that blamed Taylor Hall. And in order for a player like Taylor Hall to be traded, the coach has to not want the guy.

  83. Bobcaygeon says:

    OmJo: So basically… General Disappointment made 2 of the 3 worst trades in the history of this franchise in the span of 3 fucking days!!!! Two of the worst trades if you don’t consider the Gretzky sale a trade.

    Sorry for the foul language but it’s honestly maddening to think about.

    Well said and appropriate IMHO

  84. Woogie63 says:

    Bobcaygeon: This is nonsense….
    It doesn’t matter what team those two players are playing for or the standings…
    Gretzky went to the last place L.A Kings did it somehow de-value his worth…

    It wasn’t a good trades when it happened or during the Oilers playoff run and even now, both those trades in fact rank right up there with the Reinhardt deal.

    Gretzky went to the LAK after he had won the cup and clearly established that he had won at the NHL. several times.

    This is not the same …. frankly at all

  85. NYC-Back-to-Tokyo Oil (Gentleman Backpacker) says:

    Bobcaygeon,

    Risto had the decided early lead. This year is the first where Nurse has looked better. Hard to judge Risto fairly when he plays 26 mins for the worst team in the East.

    Sort of like no one believed Petry was any good outside Edmonton until he got to Montreal.

    This one is too soon to call just yet.

    Also, Horvat is a damn fine player. (Spits)

  86. jtblack says:

    I ran my own “highly expert” Excel Cap sheet, using Cap Friendly Numbers.

    I got rid of Nuge and added a $5 mil LW.

    I gurantee Yammy is on the team next year. Because he HAS TO be due to cheap contract.

    Yammy, JP, Khairi, Benning, Cagguila & at least 1 cheap vet. Thats the only way the numbers work when you factor in

    Nurse @ $4.5
    Pouliot Buyout
    Gryba Contract

    There is not a lot of wiggle room

  87. Bobcaygeon says:

    godot10:
    I find it difficult to blame Chiarelli alone for the Hall and Reinhart trades.Chiarelli inherited a management group that coveted Reinhart, and a management group that blamed Taylor Hall.And in order for a player like Taylor Hall to be traded, the coach has to not want the guy.

    The Oilers had enough LHD and just a quick look at a roster sheet should have told any competent GM that the Oilers didn’t require another LHD and giving up a 1st for a AHL prospect was utter lunacy, further to that Rienhart played in the east and shouldn’t have been a surprise that he was pushed down the Islanders depth chart.
    I wonder, why would management let there prize franchise player to live and hang around a player they blamed?

  88. who says:

    Bobcaygeon: I was on this very web site saying anything over 7.5M I’d look at trading Draisaitl for MacKinnon.
    Having said that, Draisaitl was a far better prospect at 19 than JP is right now, having said that,we’re not talking about Draisaitl for Saad were talking about JP for Saad, I’m sorry but I’m not sold JP will be 50 point player, Saad is…

    Do you remember Drai in the NHL at 19? He looked slow and awkward. I could see the passing skills and the vision but there is no doubt in my mind that JP looks better at 19 than Drai did. He has also produced more.
    What are you basing your evaluations on?

  89. OriginalPouzar says:

    JimmyV1965: I have no idea when we had a rookie come out of nowhere. Seriously. Must be decades.

    Joe Murphy, Adam Graves, Martin Gelinas – “The Kid Line” – 1990

    Todd Marchant – 27 points in 45 games in 94/95

  90. Melman says:

    Bank Shot,

    They are currently 27th overall with 2 of last year’s league top 10 scorers on the roster. Split the difference if you wish between last year being lucky and this year unlucky and you’re still staring at a roster that iced Benning, Russell and Davidson at RHD in game 55, and needs significant upgrades to make the playoffs in 18/19 after 3 full years to build around the best player to play since Sidney Crosby. Oh yeah, there isn’t a lot of extra cap space no boatload of extra picks next spring (a la Toronto rebuild), and it kinda seems like the coach has lost the room. Ooof

    Edit: On the plus side the Patriots didn’t repeat this year 🙂

  91. jtblack says:

    Bobcaygeon: The Oilers had enough LHD and just a quick look at a roster sheet should have told any competent GM that the Oilers didn’t require another LHD and giving up a 1st for a AHL prospect was utter lunacy, further to that Rienhart played in the east and shouldn’t have been a surprise that he was pushed down the Islanders depth chart.
    I wonder, why would management let there prize franchise player to live and hang around a player they blamed?

    +1. Terrible trade the moment it hapoened.

  92. Sighduck says:

    OriginalPouzar,

    So when I was the tender age of 1 lol

  93. jtblack says:

    who: Do you remember Drai in the NHL at 19? He looked slow and awkward. I could see the passing skills and the vision but there is no doubt in my mind that JP looks better at 19 than Drai did. He has also produced more.
    What are you basing your evaluations on?

    Not being a Goof but Drai as a 19 yr old had 50 points playing with Hall I believe. Drai as an 18 yr old looked Lost in the NHL.

  94. JimmyV1965 says:

    LadiesloveSmid: Are the flames even making the playoffs after selling off their 1st+2nd+? Up in the air

    I could be critical of the oilers all day and still know they’ve got a better outlook than the flames. 4 more years of Gaudreau to contend.

    I’m no Flames fan, but even after giving up those picks they will still have more legit prospects than us.

  95. OmJo says:

    NYC-Back-to-Tokyo Oil (Gentleman Backpacker):
    OmJo,

    Haha. It’s yeah, quite a big state. Even more confusing with the Isles playing in Brooklyn at the moment.

    It’s amazing how many people plan on Oiler or Canuck or Flame roadtrips in NY and pick NYR, NYI and BUF. Buffalo being a 7 hour drive away and all.

    NJD is the 3rd you want.

    NYC is Manhattan, The Bronx, Queens, Brooklyn, Staten Island.
    The Islanders currently play in Brooklyn, which is technically on Long Island but no one calls Brooklyn Long Island. You get out past the 5 Boroughs to the East and you’re on Long Island. Nassau County Coliseum is Long Island. The Hamptons, Montauk, etc. Great Gatsby Country. That’s Long Island.

    See, for the longest time I thought all of those places listed (Manhattan, Brooklyn, etc) were seperate cities within NY state, kind of like Leduc or St. Albert.

  96. NYC-Back-to-Tokyo Oil (Gentleman Backpacker) says:

    jtblack: Not being a Goof but Drai as a 19 yr old had 50 points playing with Hall I believe.Drai as an 18 yr old looked Lost in the NHL.

    Drai was a bit older coming out of the draft. 22 now, 21 last year, 20 the Hall 50 pt year.

  97. who says:

    jtblack: Not being a Goof but Drai as a 19 yr old had 50 points playing with Hall I believe.Drai as an 18 yr old looked Lost in the NHL.

    I think Drai had his 51 points in his 20 year old season. His 19 year old season was his first.
    Late birthday.

  98. OmJo says:

    godot10:
    I find it difficult to blame Chiarelli alone for the Hall and Reinhart trades.Chiarelli inherited a management group that coveted Reinhart, and a management group that blamed Taylor Hall.And in order for a player like Taylor Hall to be traded, the coach has to not want the guy.

    Just say no.

    He couldn’t say no to Garth Snow, he couldn’t say no to Lou Lamoriello (who can?), he apparently couldn’t say no to Lowe or MacTavish, he couldn’t say no to Russell, he couldn’t say no to Mike Liut, he couldn’t say no to MacLellan, he couldn’t say no to Garth Snow a second time.

    Just say no.

  99. OmJo says:

    who: I think Drai had his 51 points in his 20 year old season. His 19 year old season was his first.Latebirthday.

    He was 20 years and 2 days old in his first game in the 2015-16 season *pushes up glasses*

  100. jtblack says:

    NYC-Back-to-Tokyo Oil (Gentleman Backpacker): Drai was a bit older coming out of the draft. 22 now, 21 last year, 20 the Hall 50 pt year.

    Got it! his draft year he was feed to the Wolves. Draft +1 he showed real progress. More so than JP in his Draft +1 JP might take a bit longer. Still growing into that Body.

  101. pts2pndr says:

    Cameron:
    Man, coming around here these days is drinking schadenfreude from a firehose

    I’d gloat more, but I’m seeing the word ‘rebuild’ being used non-ironically, and there is only so much Oiler agony I can enjoy at once

    Cameron:
    Man, coming around here these days is drinking schadenfreude from a firehose

    I’d gloat more, but I’m seeing the word ‘rebuild’ being used non-ironically, and there is only so much Oiler agony I can enjoy at once

    Cameron,

    Cameron:
    Man, coming around here these days is drinking schadenfreude from a firehose

    I’d gloat more, but I’m seeing the word ‘rebuild’ being used non-ironically, and there is only so much Oiler agony I can enjoy at once

    You must be a Seatle Flames fan!

  102. Sighduck says:

    jtblack: Got it!his draft year he was feed to the Wolves. Draft +1 he showed real progress.More so than JP in his Draft +1 JP might take a bit longer.Still growing into that Body.

    Even if JP does track and project behind Drai, The big German centre is an incredible player and I would be ecstatic if JP was even 4/5 of the player Drai is!

  103. NYC-Back-to-Tokyo Oil (Gentleman Backpacker) says:

    jtblack: Got it!his draft year he was feed to the Wolves. Draft +1 he showed real progress.More so than JP in his Draft +1 JP might take a bit longer.Still growing into that Body.

    Yup. Jesse is taller than Drai. Still lacking coordination at times and careless with his stick.

    He is more defensively aware than Drai was at that stage but Drai was ahead offensively.

    I would say Jesse is tracking fine to become our Hossa-lite or Lehtinen-lite: defensively strong winger with 25 goal potential.

  104. OriginalPouzar says:

    jtblack:
    I ran my own “highly expert” Excel Cap sheet, using Cap Friendly Numbers.

    I got rid of Nuge and added a $5 mil LW.

    I gurantee Yammy is on the team next year. Because he HAS TO be due to cheap contract.

    Yammy, JP, Khairi,Benning, Cagguila & at least 1 cheap vet.Thats the only way the numbers work when you factor in

    Nurse @ $4.5
    Pouliot Buyout
    Gryba Contract

    There is not a lot of wiggle room

    Acquiring a $5M winger would be a $4M/year mistake.

    Live with some short term pain and a hole in the top 6 wing until a couple of ELCs are able to produce in the top 6 wing for a cap hit of $1M (Yamamoto in 2019/20 for example).

    This will save $4M/position than can be spent elsewhere.

    A RHD for the 1st or 2nd pair that is legit and can move the puck is a much more important need.

    Russell may need to be bought out as we cannot acquire the necessary 1/2RD without shedding a $4M plus cap hit from the left side.

  105. OriginalPouzar says:

    A player like Daniel Sprong needs to be the deadline target who can hopefully fill a top 6 winger spot at a small cap hit sooner rather than later.

    Other option in order to not have a huge hole next season is to find a veteran stop gap for a one year term – like Vanek and the Canucks for this year.

    If these things cannot be done we leave a hole and feel the pain next year for the benefit of our medium term cap structure and balance.

    Do not commit term to cap on the top 6 wing – we cannot afford it.

  106. jtblack says:

    Sighduck: Even if JP does track and project behind Drai, The big German centre is an incredible player and I would be ecstatic if JP was even 4/5 of the player Drai is!

    +1

  107. jtblack says:

    NYC-Back-to-Tokyo Oil (Gentleman Backpacker): Yup. Jesse is taller than Drai. Still lacking coordination at times and careless with his stick.

    He is more defensively aware than Drai was at that stage but Drai was ahead offensively.

    I would say Jesse is tracking fine to become our Hossa-lite or Lehtinen-lite: defensively strong winger with 25 goal potential.

    +1

  108. jtblack says:

    OriginalPouzar: Acquiring a $5M winger would be a $4M/year mistake.

    Live with some short term pain and a hole in the top 6 wing until a couple of ELCs are able to produce in the top 6 wing for a cap hit of $1M (Yamamoto in 2019/20 for example).

    This will save $4M/position than can be spent elsewhere.

    A RHD for the 1st or 2nd pair that is legit and can move the puck is a much more important need.

    Russell may need to be bought out as we cannot acquire the necessary 1/2RD without shedding a $4M plus cap hit from the left side.

    I was just spitballing:

    Hoffman-97-56
    27-29-98
    XX-18-44
    91-16-58

    Trying for cheap but still able to win.

    Its going to be tough no matter what

  109. JimmyV1965 says:

    godot10: How did MacT draft well?He got high first round picks right.Tambellini did that too.His later round picks have had no impact. Slepyshev is the post first round guy hanging around. For Tambellini, Pitlick and Lander and Marincin and Khaira and Davidson at least bounced around the bottom of NHL rosters.

    Agreed. We owe him for Drai but he basically won a coin toss there. The rest of his drafting is blah.

  110. JimmyV1965 says:

    jtblack:
    I ran my own “highly expert” Excel Cap sheet, using Cap Friendly Numbers.

    I got rid of Nuge and added a $5 mil LW.

    I gurantee Yammy is on the team next year. Because he HAS TO be due to cheap contract.

    Yammy, JP, Khairi,Benning, Cagguila & at least 1 cheap vet.Thats the only way the numbers work when you factor in

    Nurse @ $4.5
    Pouliot Buyout
    Gryba Contract

    There is not a lot of wiggle room

    No offence, but I think a team has no clue about development if they think Yammer has to play next year for cap reasons. That logic had killed this team for a decade. Go out and sign someone like Drew Stafford for $1 mill. He doesn’t cost any more and you develop the player properly.

  111. JimmyV1965 says:

    OriginalPouzar: Joe Murphy, Adam Graves, Martin Gelinas – “The Kid Line” – 1990

    Todd Marchant – 27 points in 45 games in 94/95

    Geez. That’s stark. No wonder we have sucked for so long.

  112. NYC-Back-to-Tokyo Oil (Gentleman Backpacker) says:

    Brock Nelson is a lazy hockey player. Please do not trade for him, Pete.

  113. Pescador says:

    Taylor Hall got Rasko Gudas’d
    doesn’t look good

  114. ArmchairGM says:

    NYC-Back-to-Tokyo Oil (Gentleman Backpacker):
    OmJo,

    Haha. It’s yeah, quite a big state. Even more confusing with the Isles playing in Brooklyn at the moment.

    It’s amazing how many people plan on Oiler or Canuck or Flame roadtrips in NY and pick NYR, NYI and BUF. Buffalo being a 7 hour drive away and all.

    NJD is the 3rd you want.

    NYC is Manhattan, The Bronx, Queens, Brooklyn, Staten Island.
    The Islanders currently play in Brooklyn, which is technically on Long Island but no one calls Brooklyn Long Island. You get out past the 5 Boroughs to the East and you’re on Long Island. Nassau County Coliseum is Long Island. The Hamptons, Montauk, etc. Great Gatsby Country. That’s Long Island.

    Is there a rule somewhere that says the Islanders must play on *Long* Island? They’re the “Islanders” – they could play in Manhattan and the moniker would still fit.

  115. VOR says:

    Thinking About the Draft – 12 – what the current math tells us – Part 1

    Before moving on to new mathematical ways of thinking about the draft I wanted to offer a summary of the wealth of mathematical insight that already exists.

    1. Draft value is monotonic and decreases steadily (mostly). Oddly the fifth round produces some what more value than the fourth, though there is no known explanation.

    2. The early drop in value is very steep but by middle of the second round the loss in value from one pick to another. Is very small.

    3. In fact it appears draft value occurs in an asymptotic distribution – as draft position passes 200 the value of each subsequent pick is essentially identical.

    All of this is true regardless of how you determine pick value, TOI, GvT, Points, Goals, it makes no difference. It is even true if you look at the odds of getting an impact player.

    Coming up I will look at a possible trade scenario to show how this information might be used.

  116. OriginalPouzar says:

    Pescador:
    Taylor Hall got Rasko Gudas’d
    doesn’t look good

    That was a high velocity impact with the boards – could be a whiplash type concussion thing.

    Hope he’s OK.

  117. OmJo says:

    Pescador:
    Taylor Hall got Rasko Gudas’d
    doesn’t look good

    https://youtu.be/YRpelkGAZhA

    He actually scored on that play.

  118. Bling says:

    Do NOT run Klefbom out of town.

    We’ve seen this song and dance with Tom Poti and Jeff Petry.

    Defence is a hard position to learn, and Klefbom was (wrongly) playing hurt.

    For 82 games last season, Larsson/Klefbom were a number one pairing.

    The fixes in the summer are small. Patience!!!

  119. ArmchairGM says:

    jtblack: Got it!his draft year he was feed to the Wolves. Draft +1 he showed real progress.More so than JP in his Draft +1 JP might take a bit longer.Still growing into that Body.

    No, you still don’t get it. A players “draft year” is the season prior to being eligible for the draft. Rasmus Dahlin is in his draft year right now. Draft + 1 is where Yamamoto is now, Jesse is in his draft + 2. Make sense?

  120. NYC-Back-to-Tokyo Oil (Gentleman Backpacker) says:

    ArmchairGM: Is there a rule somewhere that says the Islanders must play on *Long* Island? They’re the “Islanders” – they could play in Manhattan and the moniker would still fit.

    You are missing the entire context of the franchise. If the Islanders played in Manhattan there would be riots and a dissolution of the franchise. The moniker fitting has nothing to do with it In this case it is 100% Long Islanders.

    There are oil men in Calgary. The Oilers could play in Calgary and the moniker could still fit.

    Don’t tell any Islander fans what you just said. They are a small, but diehard fanbase. And that would make their blood boil.

  121. Pescador says:

    OmJo: https://youtu.be/YRpelkGAZhA

    He actually scored on that play.

    I know, I saw the replay while watching the flames give up the lead to Bos.
    He also hit the back of his head on the ice, like I said, doesn’t look good

  122. Pescador says:

    Patience!!
    Bling,

    I am unfamiliar with this term,
    could you use it in a sentence?

  123. OmJo says:

    Pescador,

    Watched it in slow motion (sorry, should mention that the video focuses more on the goal than the “great hit of the game”) it’s hard to tell if the back of his head makes complete contact with the ice. From the front it looks like his head bounces off the ice but the back angle I think it might not be as bad as it looked – at least I hope it isn’t.

    And looking now as I type this, he returned in the 3rd period.

    On a side note, the Devils are really not that great at sticking up for #4. Maybe they need Lucic out there, patrolling the ice.

  124. OmJo says:

    Chris Ryan
    ‏Verified account @ChrisRyan_NJ
    5m5 minutes ago

    Apparently since Taylor Hall missed most of the second period, he’s just going to play all the shifts in the third. Have seen him out there with a few different lines

  125. flyfish1168 says:

    Dion Phaneuf and Nate Thompson to the Los Angeles Kings in exchange for forwards Marian Gaborik and Nick Shore. Sens retain 25% of Phaneuf salary.

  126. OriginalPouzar says:

    Not a standard “deadline deal” of a pending UFA for futures but a big hockey trade went down – Phaneuf to LAK:

    Phaneuf and Thompson for Gaborik and Shore. Sens retain 25% of Phaneuf salary.

  127. NYC-Back-to-Tokyo Oil (Gentleman Backpacker) says:

    Bruins pounding the Flames. Cameron may have picked a better time to troll.

    Tampa loses to Buffalo sans Eichel.

    It’s a weird league.

  128. Nix says:

    -Be Kris Russell.
    -Be in the D zone with time and space.
    -Be aware others are frustrated with the constant chip up the boards to the opposing team.
    -Slow the game to a crawl in order to make DAMN SURE you make a good outlet pass.
    -I mean really, really take time to be absolutely positive you make the right play.
    -Bring all momentum to a screeching halt just to be 100% certain…
    -Chip it up the boards to the opposing team.

  129. NYC-Back-to-Tokyo Oil (Gentleman Backpacker) says:

    OmJo:
    Chris Ryan
    ‏Verified account @ChrisRyan_NJ
    5m5 minutes ago

    Apparently since Taylor Hall missed most of the second period, he’s just going to play all the shifts in the third. Have seen him out there with a few different lines

    Scores to tie the game. Beast.

  130. maudite says:

    No excuse on the coaching front this year imo. It’s been an abject failure to adapt. It also has the continuation of taking euros behind the woodshed and punishing them more so for mistakes then try hard north American boys which has been a team issue since rim low days.

    We keep stacking up glory day oilers in upper management and our problems still seem to remain the same.

    To fix this we added a gm that is generally poor at contract negotiating and cap management and over pays for declining years on a team that is pretty stacked in young talent requiring escalated contracts…

    The day we hired Mact as gm and didn’t even interview nil is the day I gave up on this team finally. Aside from watching the odd Connor show I am not following every game aside from reading this blog still.

    If they deal klefbom I guarantee it will be another insanely stupid I’m hindsight loss.

    Lander and Omark on the Olympic team!!! Going to have a hard time not cheering for them over Canada.

  131. Sighduck says:

    OmJo:
    Pescador,

    Watched it in slow motion (sorry, should mention that the video focuses more on the goal than the “great hit of the game”) it’s hard to tell if the back of his head makes complete contact with the ice. From the front it looks like his head bounces off the ice but the back angle I think it might not be as bad as it looked – at least I hope it isn’t.

    And looking now as I type this, he returned in the 3rd period.

    On a side note, the Devils are really not that great at sticking up for #4. Maybe they need Lucic out there, patrolling the ice.

    I’ve got it!!! Lucic for Hall!

  132. ArmchairGM says:

    NYC-Back-to-Tokyo Oil (Gentleman Backpacker): You are missing the entire context of the franchise. If the Islanders played in Manhattan there would be riots and a dissolution of the franchise. The moniker fitting has nothing to do with it In this case it is 100% Long Islanders.

    There are oil men in Calgary. The Oilers could play in Calgary and the moniker could still fit.

    Don’t tell any Islander fans what you just said. They are a small, but diehard fanbase. And that would make their blood boil.

    I guess I should have framed it as a question (I thought I had, but I guess not!) because I was wondering what the history was surrounding the name. People are laughing at the Islanders for playing out of Brooklyn, but I don’t see what the problem is. Obviously they aren’t going to Manhattan, I was just trying to make the point.

  133. flyfish1168 says:

    Sighduck: I’ve got it!!! Lucic for Hall!

    the mythical 3-1 Lucic, Russell and Sekera for Hall

  134. jtblack says:

    ArmchairGM: No, you still don’t get it. A players “draft year” is the season prior to being eligible for the draft. Rasmus Dahlin is in his draft year right now. Draft + 1 is where Yamamoto is now, Jesse is in his draft + 2. Make sense?

    Bahaha. Yes you are correct. I am embarrassed

  135. thehop says:

    OriginalPouzar:
    Not a standard “deadline deal” of a pending UFA for futures but a big hockey trade went down – Phaneuf to LAK:

    Phaneuf and Thompson for Gaborik and Shore. Sens retain 25% of Phaneuf salary.

    If Phaneuf and Gaborik can be traded, there is no logical reason why Lucic or Russell couldnt go.

    Do not trade Klefbom.

  136. NYC-Back-to-Tokyo Oil (Gentleman Backpacker) says:

    ArmchairGM,

    Playing out of Brooklyn isn’t that bad. The problem is the arena is not built for hockey and there is no parking at Barclays. The tailgating at Nassau was what fans loved so much.

    The Islanders name is specific to the Long Island identity.

    When the Isles became a franchise the Rangers demanded money and tried to spite them. Going on to form a dynasty during Big Brother’s 50 yr drought was a big deal.

    Brooklyn not ideal but tolerable. Manhattan intolerable.

  137. maudite says:

    This isn’t hindsight because it was as obvious then as it is now Pete should have been canned by Nicholson when he laid out his contract plan for Russel…

    “So we sign Russel for at least million too much for at least a year too many with a no move or trade clause!! He’ll cover for sekera then when reg is back we will have a ton of left defense again!!! Then we will fire eberle to the sun as although that like played pretty decent in the playoffs as far as even strength time was concerned he was a bit snake bit…yeah sure his scoring was pretty close to drain when he did play with macdavid but whatever!!!”

  138. OmJo says:

    flyfish1168: the mythical 3-1Lucic, Russell and Sekera for Hall

    Lol I would do Lucic, Russell and our 1st for Hall in a heartbeat.

  139. OmJo says:

    thehop: If Phaneuf and Gaborik can be traded, there is no logical reason why Lucic or Russell couldnt go.

    Do not trade Klefbom.

    This is the Edmonton Oilers of the National Hockey League that we are talking about, friend.

    Logic has nothing to do with anything. Klefbom must go, the writing is on the wall and soon will be in the Journal and Sun for good measure.

  140. flyfish1168 says:

    OmJo: Lol I would do Lucic, Russell and our 1st for Hall in a heartbeat.

    I just want to get rid of those NM and NTC contracts. PC never learnt a thing on why he was fired in Beantown.

  141. HT Joe says:

    OmJo: https://youtu.be/YRpelkGAZhA

    He actually scored on that play.

    I hate the Flyers. What a rotten franchise… I hope they never win the cup.

    (I never hated them really until the game when they injured McDavid, but this is a thorough heap of fuel for the fire *spits*)

  142. VOR says:

    Thinking about the Draft – 12 – what current math tells us

    I am not recommending this, merely showing how a GM might use some of the known math.

    Most mock drafts have the Oilers picking 5th OV and Columbus picking 16th OV. If the Oilers were going to trade down what would fair value look like – the Oilers’ first for Columbus’ first, second and third rounders. In terms of eventual outcomes the Oilers should have a very slight overall edge. But the math tells us the Oilers payoff lies further in the future than the Blue Jackets. 5 OV is likely to play this next year in the NHL and be a regular by draft +2. 16th OV is likely not to play for 2 years and likely not to be a regular until draft +3 or draft +4.

    There needs to be both a risk premium because of the deterioration in consensus from 5 to 16 and a delay premium for waiting longer to see a benefit from the draft. We can calculate the sort of value that would be required. We need a player drafted in the late second or early third and tracking towards the NHL next year, in other words a genuine prospect say Vitali Abramov for sake of argument.

    So the trade is the Oilers first round pick for Columbus’ 1st, 2nd, and Vitali Abramov. But what if the Oilers were to move up in the lottery? Even have +1 OV?

  143. JimmyV1965 says:

    Phaneuf wouldn’t waive his NMC to go to Vegas, but he does to go to LA. Interesting. Is it the city or the team? I’m sure we could get Lucic and/or Russell to waive for Tampa. That frickin Yzerman is too smart for that though. Damn him!!!

  144. OriginalPouzar says:

    thehop: If Phaneuf and Gaborik can be traded, there is no logical reason why Lucic or Russell couldnt go.

    Do not trade Klefbom.

    Logical reason is that both Lucic and Russell currently have a full veto and niether Gaborik nor Phaneuf did. Gaborik had no trade protection and Phaneuf had to submit a list of 12 teams he could be traded to.

    Both Lucic and Russell could just flat out say no.

  145. OriginalPouzar says:

    NYC-Back-to-Tokyo Oil (Gentleman Backpacker):
    ArmchairGM,

    Playing out of Brooklyn isn’t that bad. The problem is the arena is not built for hockey and there is no parking at Barclays. The tailgating at Nassau was what fans loved so much.

    Except is so damn bloody freezing at Barclays center – I went to the Oilers game there on November 5 (or so) and I’ve never been colder in my life….

  146. JimmyV1965 says:

    VOR:
    Thinking about the Draft – 12 – what current math tells us

    I am not recommending this, merely showing how a GM might use some of the known math.

    Most mock drafts have the Oilers picking 5th OV and Columbus picking 16th OV. If the Oilers were going to trade down what would fair value look like – the Oilers’ first for Columbus’ first, second and third rounders. In terms of eventual outcomes the Oilers should have a very slight overall edge. But the math tells us the Oilers payoff lies further in the future than the Blue Jackets. 5 OV is likely to play this next year in the NHL and be a regular by draft +2. 16th OV is likely not to play for 2 years and likely not to be a regular until draft +3 or draft +4.

    There needs to be both a risk premium because of the deterioration in consensus from 5 to 16 and a delay premium for waiting longer to see a benefit from the draft. We can calculate the sort of value that would be required. We need a player drafted in the late second or early third and tracking towards the NHL next year, in other words a genuine prospect say Vitali Abramov for sake of argument.

    So the trade is the Oilers first round pick for Columbus’ 1st, 2nd, and Vitali Abramov. But what if the Oilers were to move up in the lottery? Even have +1 OV?

    I don’t think the 5th overall plays in the NHL this year. The top 4 yes. Trading down from 5 could be a real interesting strategy. The gap between 5 and 10 is certainly slim. You’re the man VOR!!!

  147. OriginalPouzar says:

    JimmyV1965:
    Phaneuf wouldn’t waive his NMC to go to Vegas, but he does to go to LA. Interesting. Is it the city or the team? I’m sure we could get Lucic and/or Russell to waive for Tampa. That frickin Yzerman is too smart for that though. Damn him!!!

    Russell wants (wanted) to be in or as close to Western Canada (Alberta) as possible. It doesn’t get any further away in the NHL than Tampa.

  148. Gayfish says:

    So how long til the Klefbom for Dal Colle trade is announced?

  149. OriginalPouzar says:

    Flames lost but both ANA and LAK both lost in regulation – useless on the coast!

  150. Pescador says:

    flyfish1168: I just want to get rid of those NM and NTC contracts. PC never learnt a thing on why he was fired in Beantown.

    I am 100% certain that all 3 of Lucic, Russell & Sekera will be back next season.
    Klefbom 30/70
    Nuge 40/60
    Best case scenario the Oilers are a playoff bubble team next season with everything resting on the value contracts & players with less then 2 seasons worth of NHL experience.
    I will say that if they find the right coach to take over for TMac,
    they could turn this boat around, right now I can only see the iceberg

  151. OmJo says:

    OriginalPouzar: Russell wants (wanted) to be in or as close to Western Canada (Alberta) as possible.It doesn’t get any further away in the NHL than Tampa.

    How is Calgary doing for LD?

  152. NYC-Back-to-Tokyo Oil (Gentleman Backpacker) says:

    OriginalPouzar: Except is so damn bloody freezing at Barclays center – I went to the Oilers game there on November 5 (or so) and I’ve never been colder in my life….

    Horrible rink for hockey. Meant the borough of Brooklyn

  153. Harpers Hair says:

    JimmyV1965:
    Phaneuf wouldn’t waive his NMC to go to Vegas, but he does to go to LA. Interesting. Is it the city or the team? I’m sure we could get Lucic and/or Russell to waive for Tampa. That frickin Yzerman is too smart for that though. Damn him!!!

    Phaneufs wife is a Hollywood actress.

  154. StixMalone says:

    Phaneuf to the Kings for Gaborik

    Late to the show. Lol

  155. StixMalone says:

    Realized I was watching a PVR show lol

  156. JimmyV1965 says:

    OriginalPouzar: Russell wants (wanted) to be in or as close to Western Canada (Alberta) as possible.It doesn’t get any further away in the NHL than Tampa.

    Taxes. Winning.

  157. VOR says:

    Thinking About the Draft – 12-3

    I think 5th OV if Columbus has the pick probably gets at bats (9 games) in the NHL in 2018-2019 with a real chance of regular minutes in 2019-2020. If they get drafted by the Oilers it is a certainty.

    In my though experiment I am going to use the following:

    http://myslu.stlawu.edu/~msch/sports/Schuckers_NHL_Draft.pdf

    So pretend this season winds down and at the trade deadline Columbus is still drafting 16 and the Oilers are picking fifth.

    The Oilers are proposing a swap of picks with no lottery protection. What would fair compensation look like?

    From Schuckers we know that the difference in expected games between 5th and 16th is 328. So minimally the Oilers need to get draft picks back worth that many games. Columbus’ 2nd and third equal 346 so that is near perfect value, except 5 is likely to play in the NHL before 16. I have already suggested substituting Vitali Abramov for the third to cover off that cost of trade.

    But Columbus wants a shot at Rasmus Dahlen. What should the Oilers charge them for the chance? What is the difference between a 1OV and a 5OV? 176 expected games – an early pick in the third round. Columbus is picking late in the third so the Oilers propose a the following deal. The Oilers current 5th OV and a lottery chance for Columbus’ 1st, 2nd, Abramov (65th OV) and Columbus’ first in 2019. The current math says the Oilers come out ahead as a team though the odds are Columbus gets the better player.

    I’d think both teams would be tempted. But both would know they were gambling and could lose big. But without Schucker’s math we’d have no idea where to start.

    The question is, using current math, can we increase the Oilers odds of this deal working out in their favour?

  158. JimmyV1965 says:

    Pescador: I am 100% certain that all 3 of Lucic, Russell & Sekera will be back next season.
    Klefbom 30/70
    Nuge 40/60
    Best case scenario the Oilers are a playoff bubble team next season with everything resting on the value contracts & players with less then 2 seasons worth of NHL experience.
    I will say that if they find the right coach to take over for TMac,
    they could turn this boat around, right now I can only see the iceberg

    For sure. Trading Lucic and Russell is pure fantasy on my part.

  159. VOR says:

    Thinking About the Draft 12-4

    Say the Oilers execute the trade from 12-3

    Now they are picking 16, 36, and 47 – 3 picks in the top 50, how do they use them.

    The math says top 4 pick forwards (their position adjusted NHLE and NHLP makes forwards by far the better call, on average, 5-15 take D because their adjusted NHLE and NHLP is greater than average for forwards in these draft positions.m 16-30 take forwards.

    In the latter half of the first round take high scoring burner forwards – at this point there will be smaller guys available who can really play. This is where you arb the size bias that is so common in the NHL draft. Small talented forwards consistently fall to the back half of the first round.

    Both picks n the second round go to picking RD. You choose based on best remaining NHLE if they are also +skaters. You are now, in the sweet spot for finding NHL dmen.

    Done right the Oilers add 4 high end prospects in one draft.

  160. VOR says:

    Thinking About the Draft 12 – 5

    I will say this simply. The math unequivocally says from the end of the second round on draft BPA as determined by their NHLE. Multiply Dmen by 2 to get a comparable NHLE to forwards. Spend one pick every draft 3 round and later on a goaltender.

    Now you are doing current best practice.

    Up next post 13 – a new math of the draft.

  161. Nix says:

    VOR,

    VOR:
    Thinking About the Draft – 12-3

    I think 5th OV if Columbus has the pick probably gets at bats (9 games) in the NHL in 2018-2019 with a real chance of regular minutes in 2019-2020. If they get drafted by the Oilers it is a certainty.

    In my though experiment I am going to use the following:

    http://myslu.stlawu.edu/~msch/sports/Schuckers_NHL_Draft.pdf

    So pretend this season winds down and at the trade deadline Columbus is still drafting 16 and the Oilers are picking fifth.

    The Oilers are proposing a swap of picks with no lottery protection. What would fair compensation look like?

    From Schuckers we know that the difference in expected games between 5th and 16th is 328. So minimally the Oilers need to get draft picks back worth that many games. Columbus’ 2nd and third equal 346 so that is near perfect value, except 5 is likely to play in the NHL before 16. I have already suggested substituting Vitali Abramov for the third to cover off that cost of trade.

    But Columbus wants a shot at Rasmus Dahlen. What should the Oilers charge them for the chance? What is the difference between a 1OV and a 5OV? 176 expected games – an early pick in the third round. Columbus is picking late in the third so the Oilers propose a the following deal. The Oilers current 5th OV and a lottery chance for Columbus’ 1st, 2nd, Abramov (65th OV) and Columbus’ first in 2019. The current math says the Oilers come out ahead as a team though the odds are Columbus gets the better player.

    I’d think both teams would be tempted. But both would know they were gambling and could lose big. But without Schucker’s math we’d have no idea where to start.

    The question is, using current math, can we increase the Oilers odds of this deal working out in their favour?

    If we miraculously (or predictably) do win Dahlin in the draft, I’d entertain a package from Columbus including:
    -Their first (Id take Wahlstrom/ McD’s future sniper)
    -A #1 puck moving righty by the name of Seth Jones
    -Some sort of decent LW prospect (Milano? Jeez, I dunno..)
    …and go from there.

    We already have one generational player. Willis wrote an article elegantly explaining why you should almost always take the best player over a collection of plugs for major holes, but am not convinced in this case. It may be time to seriously consider what happens if the balls fall our way again. It’s growing more likely by the day. A year or so from now, after hopefully shedding awful contracts, we could be talking:

    Drai-McD-Wahlstrom
    Prospect-RNH-Pulju
    Benson-Strome-Yamo
    Khaira- ? -Pakarinen

    Nurse-Jones
    Klefbom-Larsson
    Jones-Bear

    Not bad and one penalty killing righty 4c away from balance. That top line would challenge for leagues best and we would see Drai-McDaddy magic nightly. Worth 21m a year on the same line imo. The top four would be finally properly slotted and very solid I feel. And the rest of the lines/ bottom pair have real promise. My pipe dream.

  162. BornInAGretzkyJersey says:

    VOR — Thanks for your recent draft series. I seek it out and enjoy the read.

  163. Pescador says:

    JimmyV1965: For sure. Trading Lucic and Russell is pure fantasy on my part.

    Mine too

  164. Oilanderp says:

    I’m an oilers fan since the early 80s. I watch every single game. I don’t live in AB. When I check the online foolishness its sometimes that: foolishness. I know, our team hasn’t performed. But don’t lose your minds please. Don’t run good players out of town because you’re impatient. The parity in this league now is ridicuous. Almost like 28 contenders.

    Just relax. I know. THEYRE LOSING MAAAAN. I know. I know. I’m not in town. And i’m not losing my mind. We played the games and we lost. It’s ok. We will play them again next year.

    Theyre not as good as they were last year and not as bad as they are this year. Relax. You have to play the games.

    Dont freak out or call for people’s heads. It will be ok. Stop publishing media suggesting you are an insane obsessed psychotic town. I know that’s not true even though I have never lived there. Relax.

    I know, it sucks sometimes. But we were guaranteed nothing. Ever. We deserve nothing. We will persevere.

  165. OriginalPouzar says:

    JimmyV1965: Taxes. Winning.

    From accounts being close to Western Canada was a primary consideration.

    Never say never, however, there is a very good chance he would say no to Tampa.

  166. NYC-Back-to-Tokyo Oil (Gentleman Backpacker) says:

    Nix:
    VOR,

    If we miraculously (or predictably) do win Dahlin in the draft, I’d entertain a package from Columbus including:
    -Their first (Id take Wahlstrom/ McD’s future sniper)
    -A #1 puck moving righty by the name of Seth Jones
    -Some sort of decent LW prospect (Milano? Jeez, I dunno..)
    …and go from there.

    We already have one generational player. Willis wrote an article elegantly explaining why you should almost always take the best player over a collection of plugs for major holes, but am not convinced in this case. It may be time to seriously consider what happens if the balls fall our way again. It’s growing more likely by the day. A year or so from now, after hopefully shedding awful contracts, we could be talking:

    Drai-McD-Wahlstrom
    Prospect-RNH-Pulju
    Benson-Strome-Yamo
    Khaira-?-Pakarinen

    Nurse-Jones
    Klefbom-Larsson
    Jones-Bear

    Not bad and one penalty killing righty 4c away from balance. That top line would challenge for leagues best and we would see Drai-McDaddy magic nightly. Worth 21m a year on the same line imo. The top four would be finally properly slotted and very solid I feel. And the rest of the lines/ bottom pair have real promise. My pipe dream.

    That is a huge haul. If we win the lottery and you are hypothetically dealing with Columbus you do 1st overall for Seth Jones + 16th overall.

    Would Columbus do it? Doubtful because Werenski (L) and Jones (R) are their long-term top pair. Adding Dahlin (L) to move Werenski down a pairing does less for them.

    If the consensus top pick were an elite C then I think it would be a different story and Columbus considers it, so they can run elite C and Dubois down the middle.

    As it is, they moved their non-elite 1C (Johansen) for Jones so any offer for Jones would have to trump that.

    I think we’d be lucky to get Jones + their 1st for Dahlin because of their current set-up on D.

  167. Mr. D. says:

    Why would they? This team is going nowhere at warp stillness. Edmonton is a great hockey town when winning. Bet you there isn’t a player who doesn’t want out of Dodge of the north.

    OriginalPouzar: Logical reason is that both Lucic and Russell currently have a full veto and niether Gaborik nor Phaneuf did.Gaborik had no trade protection and Phaneuf had to submit a list of 12 teams he could be traded to.

    Both Lucic and Russell could just flat out say no.

  168. Kinger_Oil.redux says:

    – I wonder what a Cody Ceci would cost? He’s available. He doesn’t play the PP much, some other D on that team has that locked up. He’s young, mobile, 2-way: not best year this year

    – He’s RFA, so due for an increase from $2.8, which Ottawa appears loath to want to add salary

    – I’d say he’s be our 2nd RHD. Not in the Faulk division of RHD, but better than what we have

    – Is this good?:

    Klef-Larsson
    Nurse-Ceci
    Sek-Russel
    Benning/Davidson

  169. russ99 says:

    Nicholson’s comments are very interesting.

    https://www.sportsnet.ca/hockey/nhl/disappointed-oilers-ceo-nicholson-hopes-team-adds-top-defenceman/sn-amp/?__twitter_impression=true

    First, I welcome the message about acquiring a top defenseman, we can’t stand pat and improve. Karlsson? Doughty?

    Second, it’s really odd that a CEO talks about specific player moves, so is Chia fired, marginalized or is Nicholson becoming the public face since segments of the fanbase question/deride everything the GM says.

  170. Kinger_Oil.redux says:

    russ99:
    Nicholson’s comments are very interesting.

    https://www.sportsnet.ca/hockey/nhl/disappointed-oilers-ceo-nicholson-hopes-team-adds-top-defenceman/sn-amp/?__twitter_impression=true

    First, I welcome the message about acquiring a top defenseman, we can’t stand pat and improve. Karlsson? Doughty?

    Second, it’s really odd that a CEO talks about specific player moves, so is Chia fired, marginalized or is Nicholson becoming the public face since segments of the fanbase question/deride everything the GM says.

    – I think it’s bush league actually: telling everyone what you’d like to get… Price just goes up

    – MacT used to say dumb things like this.

    – What does Bob Nicholson know about NHL hockey player personel? Sure he got to preside over all-star selections for Olympics as president of Hockey Canada. He’s a manager, seemingly well respected in hockey circles, whose supposed to be the voice of reason in the OBC house, and conduit into Katz. Not talking about hockey players or roster composition

  171. ArmchairGM says:

    VOR:
    Thinking about the Draft – 12 – what current math tells us

    I am not recommending this, merely showing how a GM might use some of the known math.

    Most mock drafts have the Oilers picking 5th OV and Columbus picking 16th OV. If the Oilers were going to trade down what would fair value look like – the Oilers’ first for Columbus’ first, second and third rounders. In terms of eventual outcomes the Oilers should have a very slight overall edge. But the math tells us the Oilers payoff lies further in the future than the Blue Jackets. 5 OV is likely to play this next year in the NHL and be a regular by draft +2. 16th OV is likely not to play for 2 years and likely not to be a regular until draft +3 or draft +4.

    There needs to be both a risk premium because of the deterioration in consensus from 5 to 16 and a delay premium for waiting longer to see a benefit from the draft. We can calculate the sort of value that would be required. We need a player drafted in the late second or early third and tracking towards the NHL next year, in other words a genuine prospect say Vitali Abramov for sake of argument.

    So the trade is the Oilers first round pick for Columbus’ 1st, 2nd, and Vitali Abramov. But what if the Oilers were to move up in the lottery? Even have +1 OV?

    Maybe I’m missing something, but strictly going by expected number of NHL games is only half the equation. Shouldn’t you be looking at the quality of those games? One superstar player (#1 OA) is worth far more than three or four depth players – even though those players may collectively play more NHL games throughout their careers. Most second and third-round picks end up being “replacement-level” players – the kind you can pick up through college or UFA signings quite easily.

  172. OriginalPouzar says:

    Mr. D.:
    Why would they? This team is going nowhere at warp stillness. Edmonton is a great hockey town when winning. Bet you there isn’t a player who doesn’t want out of Dodge of the north.

    Again, from all accounts, it was very important for Russell to be in or close to Western Canada and that is where he landed.

    The post I responded to said there was no logical reason why Phaneuf/Gaboirk can be traded by Lucic and Russell can not be and I was responded to the inaccuracy in that post.

    I’m not saying they would (although Russell probably would), both Lucic and Russell currently have an outright veto on any trade that neither Phaneuf nor Gaborik had.

    None of us know what is in either of their heads and they both could very well say no to a trade, in particular one to about as far a way from their chosen destination as possible. I do think that Lucic would waive for the right destination but Russell may have zero desire to do so based on his stated desires when signed.

  173. OriginalPouzar says:

    Slovenia beats the US and Slovakia beats “Russia” – great start to the tournament.

    Go Canada!

  174. NYC-Back-to-Tokyo Oil (Gentleman Backpacker) says:

    Kinger_Oil.redux:
    – I wonder what a Cody Ceci would cost?He’s available. He doesn’t play the PP much, some other D on that team has that locked up. He’s young, mobile, 2-way: not best year this year

    – He’s RFA, so due for an increase from $2.8, which Ottawa appears loath to want to add salary

    – I’d say he’s be our 2nd RHD.Not in the Faulk division of RHD, but better than what we have

    – Is this good?:

    Klef-Larsson
    Nurse-Ceci
    Sek-Russel
    Benning/Davidson

    I wouldn’t say it is good but it is better. Was also thinking if Columbus misses the playoffs they might be open to a shakeup.

    Savard might thus also come cheaper than before

  175. Mr. D. says:

    Unfortunately with the quality of players in the tourney the medal will be tarnished.

    OriginalPouzar:
    Slovenia beats the US and Slovakia beats “Russia” – great start to the tournament.

    Go Canada!

  176. OriginalPouzar says:

    Mr. D.:
    Unfortunately with the quality of players in the tourney the medal will be tarnished.

    Not to me.

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