The 62 best players in the 2018 Draft

I’m not telling you anything you don’t already know, but friends, it’s time to turn some of our attention to the draft. Today’s post features the 62 best players in the draft, a mock, and a sincere wish that you and yours let go of the season and allow yourselves to enjoy the beauty that surrounds us. That may involve music, demon liquor, women with infectious laughs, wicked senses of humor and an ability to look past our limitations and agree to be our Valentine. Enjoy the day, ladies and men, we have much to share.

THE ATHLETIC!

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MY BACK PAGES

  • I use NHLE as a strong guiding light. Christian Roatis has the current conversation calculator here.
  • My list list rewards offense heavily, and the most gifted offensive players will be at the top. Players with a range of skills usually do well, but there is a fine line between a two-way player and a checking future. The list does not give high numbers to players who have a lot of their value tied up in the defensive side of the game. Goalies are graded (almost exclusively) by save percentage, although success over more than one season has terrific value.
  • I view Bob McKenzie’s list as the draft Bible, but my list does not factor in any scouts input beyond the obvious. (My list is complete before his final one).
  • Corey Pronman’s views have a major impact on my list. He’s been finding value in the draft for years and his list is unique. Despite my admiration for his work, our lists are not similar. Makes sense, since he’s scouting and evaluating these players, I’m using math and what gets sent my way. Corey’s mid-season list is here.
  • Craig Button’s list has high value for me, I like the fact he has the courage of his convictions.
  • I pay attention to Red Line Report.
  • Simon Boisvert is a wonderful resource. He’s on the Lowdown often, I’m going to have him on this week.
  • I also view McKeen’s, Steve Kournianos, Grant McCagg, Tom Hunter, The Black Book, Scott Wheeler, Brock Otten, Adam Sherren, ISS.
  • I do not copy any rankings (this should be fairly obvious if you look at other rankings).
  • Mark Edwards Black Book is a brilliant reference. His release last year has been very useful for this year’s draft. Highly recommended.
  • It is very rare for me to rank a defenseman No. 1 overall. Last time? Victor Hedman, 2009. Things could change this year.
  • My list is not designed to compete with, or copy any of the sources mentioned above. Organizations like Red Line, ISS, McKeens, Future Considerations and others employ actual scouts who observe, evaluate and project. None of their work is contained here.
  • This list uses math, previous draft trends (the CHL delivers enormous talent to the NHL), various pieces of anecdotal information volunteered by scouts and observers along the way, and an educated guess based on watching these things unfold since 1971.

THE 62 BEST PLAYERS IN THE 2018 DRAFT

  1. (1) LD Rasmus Dahlin, Frolunda (SHL). The franchise defenseman. No negatives.
  2. (2) R Andrei Svechnikov, Barrie Colts (OHL). Complete talent, fleet winger (shoots left).
  3. (3) L Filip Zadina, Halifax Mooseheads (QMJHL). Size, shooter, speed, skill.
  4. (4) LC Jacob Olofsson, Timra (Allsvenskan). Speedy center with skill, he’s an emerging player.
  5. (5) LD Ty Smith, Spokane Chiefs (WHL). Nice range of skills and impressive offense.
  6. (6) RD Adam Boqvist, Brynas (SuperElite). Undersized puck moving defender who is very creative.
  7. (12) R Oliver Wahlstrom, U.S. N. D. P. (USHL). Pure scorer with good size. Plus shot.
  8. (8) L Brady Tkachuk, Boston University (NCAA). Rugged power winger with two-way skills.
  9. (10) LD Quinn Hughes, Michigan (NCAA). Fast as lightning defender, smooth as silk.
  10. (9) RD Ryan Merkley, Guelph Storm (OHL). Ridiculous offensive package.
  11. (7) RC Akil Thomas, Niagara Ice Dogs (OHL). Undersized center with all of the tools.
  12. (11) L Joel Farabee, U.S. N. D. P. (USHL). Speedy winger with legit skill, he’s a little undersized.
  13. (13) LC Filip Hallander, Timra (Allsvenskan). Big, fast forward is an excellent puck transporter.
  14. (18) LC Joe Veleno, Saint-John Sea Dogs (QMJHL). Good size and speed, creative center.
  15. (19) RD Noah Dobson, Acadie-Bathurst Titan (QMJHL). Two-way defenseman.
  16. (21) RD Evan Bouchard, London Knights (OHL). Big numbers, lacks first-step quickness.
  17. (16) LC Barrett Hayton, SSM Greyhounds (OHL). Shooter owns a heavy shot and uses it liberally.
  18. (20) LC Jesperi Kotkaniemi, Assat (Sm-Liiga). Smart, very skilled and he’s 6.02, 190.
  19. (15) LC Ryan McLeod, Mississauga Steelheads (OHL). Late ’99 has size, speed and skill.
  20. (14) RD Jett Woo, Moose Jaw Warriors (WHL). A fine two-way prospect and a rare righty.
  21. (23) RD Calen Addison, Lethbridge Hurricanes (WHL). Creative player, very fast.
  22. (24) R Dominik Bokk, Vajxo Lakers (SuperElite). Elusive skater and a fine stickhandler.
  23. (30) W Samuel Fagemo, Frolunda (SuperElite). Good boots and an excellent shot.
  24. (26) RC Cam Hillis, Guelph Storm (OHL). He’s a burner and he’s spiking.
  25. (25) RD Bode Wilde, U.S. N. D. P. (USHL). Has size, skill, skating ability plus can shoot the puck.
  26. (22) LD K’Andre Miller, U.S. N. D. P. (USHL). Big defender who can skate and has a big shot.
  27. (17) RC Rasmus Kupari, Karpat (Sm-Liiga). Skilled center, offense is the big selling point.
  28. (29) L Isac Lundestrom, Lulea (SHL). He is a burner, probably a little shy offensively.
  29. (NR) LC Linus Nyman, Kingston Frontenacs (OHL). Strong two-way C with impressive offense.
  30. (27) LC Phillipp Kurashev, Quebec Remparts (QMJHL). Intelligent two-way center.
  31. (NR) R Serron Noel, Oshawa Generals (OHL). Big power forward with improving speed.
  32. (NR) G Lukas Dostal, Brno (Czech). Fabulous numbers over the last two seasons.
  33. (28) LC Milos Roman, Vancouver Giants (WHL). A smart player in all areas of the ice.
  34. (NR) LC Jack McBain, Toronto Jr. Canadians (OJHL). Two-way C with size and skill.
  35. (NR) LD Alex Alexeyev, Red Deer Rebels (WHL). Big man, calm feet, has skill.
  36. (31) LD Jared McIssac, Halifax Mooseheads (QMJHL). Powerful skater, emerging offense.
  37. (NR) G Jakub Skarek, Jihlava (Czech). Huge goalie, quality resume.
  38. (NR) L Grigori Denisenko, Yaroslavl (MHL). Shoots right, high-end skill and he’s a puck wizard.
  39. (NR) LC Allan McShane, Oshawa Generals (OHL). A wide range of skills.
  40. (NR) LC Benoit-Olivier Groulx, Halifax Mooseheads (QMJHL). Two-way center with some skill.
  41. (NR) L Jakob Lauko, Chomutov (Czech). Skilled winger with good speed. Offense a mystery.
  42. (NR) LC Nathan Dunkley, London Knights (OHL). Impressive young player with offensive ability.
  43. (NR) R Jesse Ylonen, Espoo United (Mestis). Tall, thin skill winger who is both shooter and playmaker.
  44. (NR) LD Rasmus Sandin, SSM Greyhounds (OHL). Smart, undersized skill defenseman.
  45. (NR) L Cedric Desruisseaux, Drummondville (QMJHL). Impressive 5×5 scorer.
  46. (NR) LD Jonathan Tychonick, Penticton Vees (BCJHL). Puck mover, creative, chaos.
  47. (NR) R Vitali Kravtsov, Traktor (KHL). Terrific skill obscured by playing in big league.
  48. (NR) L Albin Eriksson, Skelleftea (SHL). Big winger, plus speed, promising offense.
  49. (NR) RC Ty Dallandrea, Flint Firebirds (OHL). Skill center plays a rugged style. .88
  50. (NR) L Jack Randl, Omaha Lancers (USHL). Impressive scorer. Zero buzz.
  51. (NR) Martin Kaut, Pardubice (Czech). Big, strong, excellent skater. Offense unclear.
  52. (NR) G Oliver Rodrigue, Drummondville (QMJHL). Best NA goalie by consensus.
  53. (NR) LD Filip Kral, Spokane Chiefs (WHL). Smart puck moving defender. Impressive.
  54. (NR) LC Alexander Khovanov, Moncton Wildcats (QMJHL). Unreal skill.
  55. (NR) L Sampo Ranta, Sioux City Musketeers (USHL). Skill winger with speed and a plus shot.
  56. (NR) RC Kyle Topping, Kelowna Rockets (WHL). Impressive even-strength offense.
  57. (NR) R Kody Clark, Ottawa 67’s (OHL). Rambunctious PF with some skill. Wendel’s boy.
  58. (NR) R Riley Sutter, Everett Silvertips (WHL). A gritty winger with skill. Sutter.
  59. (NR) LC Matej Pekar, Muskegon Lumberjacks (USHL). Playmaking Czech in USHL.
  60. (NR) LC Blake McLaughlin, Chicago Steel (USHL). Undersized skill player.
  61. (NR) R Vladislav Kotkov, Chicoutimi Sagueneens (QMJHL). Big, mobile offensive winger.
  62. (NR) R Aidan Dudas, Owen Sound Attack (OHL). Small, very skilled forward.

OILERS AT THE DRAFT, 2018

  • First Round—No. 5 overall
  • Second Round—No. 36 overall
  • Third Round—No. 67 overall
  • Fourth Round—No. 98 overall (Oilers acquired goaltender Al Montoya from the Montreal Canadiens in exchange for a conditional fourth-round pick in 2018. If Montoya plays less than seven regular season games for the Oilers the draft pick becomes a fifth rounder)
  • Fifth Round—No. 129 overall
  • Sixth Round—No. 160 overall
  • Seventh Round—No. 191 overall

LOWETIDE MOCK DRAFT

For my Mock Draft, I’m using Bob McKenzie’s list as my guideline. Meaning: A player chosen below would still be on the board when the Oilers turn arrived.

  • First Round—No. 5 overall—LD Ty Smith, Spokane Chiefs (WHL). Steve Kournianos: Instinctive two-way force from the blue line with exceptional hockey sense and a strong desire to join the attack and create chances. Smith’s mobility and vision seem to throw opponents into a state of confusion — his ability to transition quickly from defense to offense is excellent. He’s an effortless skater with strong balance and agility, and he can pivot with the best of them. You’ll rarely see Smith get caught chasing his man or losing positioning, as he makes timely reads and anticipates exactly where the puck will end up. Source
  • Second Round—No. 36 overall—LC Linus Nyman, Kingston Frontenacs (OHL). Peter Harling: Nyman (pronounced Newman) is a speedy offensive winger. His explosive acceleration is arguably his best asset and he is a shifty player that hard to hit or check the puck off his stick because of his quick hands and feet. His offensive skills are above average for the OHL and he makes plays and has an excellent sense of timing to jump on loose pucks and rebounds for second chance goals. Nyman lacks size and strength and while he plays hard defensively and physically, he often is ineffective or loses puck battels, not due to lack of compete but because he is just out gunned physically. Source
  • Third Round—No. 67 overall—R Aidan Dudas, Owen Sound Attack (OHL). Tremendous skill, undersized, average speed. He ranks No. 24 in estimated 5×5 points-per-60 in the OHL according to prospect-stats.com. He might be available here, Oilers would be wise to draft these insane skill kids early and often.
  • Fourth Round—No. 98 overall (Oilers acquired goaltender Al Montoya from the Montreal Canadiens in exchange for a conditional fourth-round pick in 2018. If Montoya plays less than seven regular season games for the Oilers the draft pick becomes a fifth rounder)
  • Fifth Round—No. 129 overall—LC Matthew Struthers, North Bay Battalion (OHL). This is a big power forward who has spiked since a mid-season trade. Brock Otten wrote about him here (No.35).
  • Sixth Round—No. 160 overall—LC Jake Wise, USNDTP (USHL). I don’t know where he’s ranked to be honest, but his numbers are good and Steve Kournianos said nice things about him.
  • Seventh Round—No. 191 overall—G Mitchell Gibson, Lone Star Brahmas (NAHL). I admit to at least partially choosing him because of the name of his team, but the young man has a nice resume.

LOWDOWN WITH LOWETIDE

A fun show this morning, beginning at 10, TSN1260. Scheduled to appear:

  • Darcy McLeod, Because Oilers. Talbot, PK, cap.
  • Derek Taylor, TSN. CFL free agency gone wild!
  • AJ Jakubec, TSN1200 Ottawa. The Phaneuf exit.

10-1260 text, @Lowetide on twitter. See you on the radio!

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247 Responses to "The 62 best players in the 2018 Draft"

« Older Comments
  1. jtblack says:

    Scungilli Slushy,

    “If they do something that stupid and also get hosed on the trades I’m not sure I’ll be able to watch them.” …..

    Seems like an idle threat …… 11 years and counting ….

  2. godot10 says:

    OriginalPouzar: Interesting statement as the Oilers have two players that sometimes play together and, when they do, have been known to form the best duo in the hockey world – fans, however, blast the coaching staff as both are centers and therefore should be on different lines.

    Seems both Matthews and Nylander were also drafted as centers….

    If Nylander wants to play centre in Toronto, it would be for the Marlies. He is a winger only in Babcock’s eyes.

  3. OriginalPouzar says:

    Skinner stops 29 out of 31 in a 4-2 win.

    Safin and Hebig finish with a lone goal each.

  4. smellyglove says:

    I would never absolve anyone in Oilers management of any wrongdoing – after all, they are either inept and incompetent or appointed via nepotism (and that goes for the whole slate, from OBC to Chia – but re: Nicholson:

    Aren’t all NHL teams looking for top 4 if not top pairing D-men? Hardly a unique circumstance. Everyone knows the Oilers woes. What’s the alternative, “We are reasonably comfortable with this putrid group”?

  5. OriginalPouzar says:

    Yamamoto with a first period assist.

  6. smellyglove says:

    By the way. Oilers die hard since 2005 here.

    Rode it out through 13 dark years, but I live in the PNW and ABHOR the Canucks. Fans, team, management, history, culture ** spits twice **.

    If Seattle gets a team, I will likely switch. Not sure if that makes me a bad person. I love Lowetide. I love everyone here and the conversations. Smartest group in the World Wide Web, been following for nearly 7-8 years on this site.

  7. JimmyV1965 says:

    OriginalPouzar: I am not fearing a stupid move by management but going in to the deadline with excitement hoping management may be able to grab a real NHL ready prospect – I think that is the plan for our rentals – we’ll see if it comes to fruition but I”m excited to add some futures in any event.

    I don’t understand you the yelled part of your post – a 1st/2nd pairing RHD is absolutely the primary need on this team and needs to be the primary focus of management (in conjunction with the disposition of a $4M contract on the left side, hopefully Russell, some how, some way).

    I too hope we can parlay our UFAs into a prospect closer to the NHL, rather than draft picks. And a top four RHD is definitely our biggest need. Not even a PP guy. Just someone who can get the puck up the ice quickly. I wish I shared your optimism about the GM. I’m terrified they overreact to our current standings and do something stupid, like trade RNH for Barrie. Chia will go a long way to restoring my faith if he can acquire a legit prospect for our UFAs.

  8. OriginalPouzar says:

    rope-a-dope:
    What I don’t like about the Nicholson quote is that firstly, it lets the cat out of the bag, weakening Chia’s bargaining position, he already needs help in that area. Secondly (maybe I’m reading into it too much) but a trade for a dman isn’t going to fix this team at a fundamental level, one player in one trade is never a magic bullet. To get better the team as a whole also needs to execute, there’s exactly 4 guys on the team who are executing well enough right now. This in my opinion means that coaching and pro player development is a huge issue. Which brings me to another observation, Todd genuinely doesn’t seem like he can solve problems which is why we’re here, he hasn’t been able to solve the special teams among other things. This is a critical skill of successful coaches.

    1) I don’t buy that Nicholson mentioning wanting to acquire a top d-man weakens the bargaining position in any way – when Chia gets on the phone with another GM and talks about acquiring one of their top d-men the cat is out of the bag right there. Its not like any manager is going to acquire a player without the opposing GM knowing they want to acquire the player

    2) Absolutely a legit 1st/2nd pairing RHD would help this team and it would help them execute. We currently have two left shot defence playing out of position on the right side every game – often on the top 2 pairings. They are set up to fail. Execution for them is harder on their offside. Putting an actual RHD in that spot would help execution and allow other players to play in their natural positions, again, helping execution.

  9. Pescador says:

    smellyglove:
    By the way. Oilers die hard since 2005 here.

    Rode it out through 13 dark years, but I live in the PNW and ABHOR the Canucks. Fans, team, management, history, culture ** spits twice **.

    If Seattle gets a team, I will likely switch. Not sure if that makes me a bad person. I love Lowetide. I love everyone here and the conversations. Smartest group in the World Wide Web, been following for nearly 7-8 years on this site.

    You can love 2 teams,
    You’re not a bad person, just think of them as 2 different but equally beautiful women.
    To hell with it I’ll be right there with you, I already love the name
    Go Seattle Sockeyes!!

  10. OriginalPouzar says:

    Also, if you actually read Nicholson’s quote (see below), he wasn’t saying that they were going to have a huge focus on acquiring a top d-man but simply that it “would be good” if they could add to their top 3 d-man. I think its pretty clear that we have a single top 4 RHD. This is really a nothing quote that is being used as fodder for more vitriol towards management:

    “You always want to add to your core. I still really believe in Cam Talbot, and he’ll be the first person to say he hasn’t had a good year, so it starts with your goaltending. We’ve had a lot of injuries on the back end, especially in our top three defencemen. If we could add another top defenceman, that would be real good. We have two keys up front; Leon and Connor are both excellent players. People are down on Leon, but when you start to look at his stats, 5-on-5 he’s in the top seven or eight in the league; he just hasn’t been as productive on the power play. We’ve got to make sure we continue to support around that group, for sure. I really do believe we’re a lot closer than what we’ve shown this year.”.

  11. Bling says:

    OP:

    Adding to the D-corps is always a good idea, but I am not sure that a Tyson Barrie type would be of much help. Will he help 5v5 scoring with Connor off the ice? Will he help the PK? What about Ricki’s box? If giving up HDSC is a concern, how is Tyson Barrie going to help with that?

    If we have to give up an RNH or a Klefbom for a player like that, how does that move the needle?

    The special teams have to get much, much better. Instead of giving up big assets like RNH and Klef for the likes of Barrie, why can’t management instead pursue inexpensive bottom sixers who can actually kill a penalty and a backup goalie who can push Talbot for starts? How about a winger who can keep up with 97, so that 29 can centre his own line?

    This idea of adding another D just shows how out of touch this management group is. They haven’t a clue.

  12. Bling says:

    OP:

    Difference with Matthews/Nylander and McDavid/Draisaitl is that the Leafs have incredible forward depth and the Oilers traded all of theirs away.

    I would have all the time in the world for a McDavid/Draisaitl duo if we could run RNH/Hall on another line, or better yet RNH/Eberle and Khaira/Hall.

    Unfortunately, no matter how good that first line is, you can’t win games consistently with a GF% in the low 40s with 97/29 off the ice.

  13. BornInAGretzkyJersey says:

    smellyglove,

    If/when Seattle gets a team, what’s the best team name?

    —————————————————————————

    Seals?

    Salmon?

    Tsunami?

    etc

  14. Bank Shot says:

    All the negatives are at PP/PK which we have been told forever are subject to the whimsy of probabilities.

    Math guys should be extremely high on the OIlers bouncing back in a big way next season shouldn’t they?

    The OIlers have gotten the short end of the math stick this season.

    They have good corsi. Top five. Getting sunk by special teams and a goalie playing below his established norms.

    Shouldn’t we be expecting regression in a big way next season?

  15. BornInAGretzkyJersey says:

    Bling,

    What of a target like Trouba versus Barrie?

  16. Pescador says:

    BornInAGretzkyJersey:
    smellyglove,

    If/when Seattle gets a team, what’s the best team name?

    —————————————————————————

    Seals?

    Salmon?

    Tsunami?

    etc

    Sockeyes, like I said above
    For me one of the greatest names the league has ever known

  17. Lowetide says:

    BornInAGretzkyJersey:
    smellyglove,

    If/when Seattle gets a team, what’s the best team name?

    —————————————————————————

    Seals?

    Salmon?

    Tsunami?

    etc

    I like Thunderbirds, would be over the moon with Seals.

  18. Pescador says:

    BornInAGretzkyJersey:
    Bling,

    What of a target like Trouba versus Barrie?

    Troubadour and his agent have already requested a trade out of western Canada.
    Bright lights Big city

  19. NYC-Back-to-Tokyo Oil (Gentleman Backpacker) says:

    BornInAGretzkyJersey:
    smellyglove,

    If/when Seattle gets a team, what’s the best team name?

    —————————————————————————

    Seals?

    Salmon?

    Tsunami?

    etc

    Seattle has a large Japanese population. I doubt they choose tsunamis. Too soon. And while the same could be said for naming a team the Hurricanes at least the word sounds cool and usually 20,000 people don’t die.

    Thunderbirds, Sockeyes, both sound good to me.

  20. Kinger_Oil.redux says:

    Bank Shot:
    All the negatives are at PP/PK which we have been told forever are subject to the whimsy of probabilities.

    Math guys should be extremely high on the OIlers bouncing back in a big way next season shouldn’t they?

    The OIlers have gotten the short end of the math stick this season.

    They have good corsi.Top five. Getting sunk by special teams and a goalie playing below his established norms.

    Shouldn’t we be expecting regression in a big way next season?

    – I’ve come to the conclusion that if one thinks Chia is sh$t: you point to this year, and rationalize that last year was a fluke

    – If Chia is here next year, and the actual results improve while goalie plays better, then Chia is still sh$t, just lucky

  21. Bank Shot says:

    Kinger_Oil.redux: – I’ve come to the conclusion that if one thinks Chia is sh$t: you point to this year, and rationalize that last year was a fluke

    – If Chia is here next year, and the actual results improve while goalie plays better, then Chia is still sh$t, just lucky

    That’s an unfair way to look at it. I mean math guys were defending Eakins very strongly for his work getting the Oilers slightly above 50% in corsi for a short period.

    Being top 5 in corsi in the NHL doesn’t even seem to get brought up with this crew.

  22. gregsaint says:

    What a snipe by Nurse against the Americans

  23. Pescador says:

    Kinger_Oil.redux: – I’ve come to the conclusion that if one thinks Chia is sh$t: you point to this year, and rationalize that last year was a fluke

    – If Chia is here next year, and the actual results improve while goalie plays better, then Chia is still sh$t, just lucky

    What if your a poster who believes that Chiarelli is not shit, but rather a GM who has done a poor job ?
    Poor returns on trades, over paying & over term ing on contracts, identifying the wrong player types to fill the roster, mis-management of the all mighty Cap.
    I suppose that I’m being irrational,
    Your right he is just really unlucky

  24. Pescador says:

    gregsaint:
    What a snipe by Nurse against the Americans

    Word
    +100

  25. VOR says:

    I want to ask a serious question.

    But to understand why I am asking you need to know the background. The first time I played D I was in graduate school for the second time. Until then I was always a goalie. There I was at 32 learning a new position. By then I had played a lot of hockey scanning the entire ice surface (close to a thousand games), watching the play develop, learning to keep my head on a swivel while always tracking the puck.

    As a goaltender my only plus skills were stick handling and skating. Well that and that I had been a wrestler, a middle line backer, and a scrum half. I obviously didn’t mind the rough and tumble. Given my knees worked but not well enough to go down and get back up to the extent goaltending requires and my push off wasn’t consistent any more defence seemed like a reasonable option. And I did love to crush people.

    I started by spending a summer taking skating classes, power skate mostly. Then I took hockey classes at the UofA that fall and then played rec league and senior men’s and then more classes and more games. Long story short, after more than two years of trying to switch and hating it I went back to goaltending and played another 28 years before my knees said enough. But before I returned to net I had played both left and right D.

    I didn’t see any difference. To me, as a goaltender (a catcher, a middle line backer, center half, and a point guard) the game looks weird being anywhere but the middle of the ice, but it looks equally weird on either side. Plus, I am ambidexterous, a natural lefty forced to master his right side so neither handedness feels entirely natural to me. And in comparison to my struggles to move the puck in goalie gear puck handling as a D seemed incredibly easy, forehand, backhand, it was all the same.

    So I have been somewhat dubious about the importance of D handedness. But the math says it is a thing and teams chase RD and pay ransom to get one. I just can’t make sense of the arguments about why handedness matters. I have tried talking to the D I know (and I know a lot of D). Most claim to have no preference. Those that state a strong preference usually prefer the “wrong side” of the ice.

    I would like somebody who has played tons of D to explain to me why you find it harder on your wrong side or if you find it easier why you prefer your dominant side?

  26. Georges says:

    VOR: The thing is you don’t just have to control for draft position bias but the increased bias that smaller players confront. So let’s say an average 7th round draft choice gets x number of games audition in the NHL per y number of points in the AHL, how many does you sub population of short players get for the same number of points. The difference in your two populations may be the consequence of bias in drafting and bias in development combining to limit opportunity and thus proof of the bias not of intrinsic differences in likelihood of success. Without a way of eliminating bias as a confounding factor we could end up saying we shouldn’t draft shorter players because other GMs are biased against them. Which is the opposite of exploiting an arbitrage opportunity.

    https://hockey-graphs.com/author/casualobsessions/

    I also thought you and others here might find these five posts by the brilliant, funny, and snarky Carolyn Wilke funny and informative.

    The oldest of these posts argues against the importance of coaching in determining team success. The last three, written before this year began rank the 31 GMs in the league. I won’t spoil the surprise but let’s say the Oilers may reflect their GM quite closely.

    A forward’s draft round is a significant predictor of whether he’ll play 100 games once he makes the NHL. But it appears that height isn’t significant once you’ve already factored in the draft round.

    So it comes down to players drafted later are less likely to reach the 100 game threshold if they manage to make it to the NHL. And shorter players are less likely to reach the 100 game threshold because they’re drafted later.

    The question you’re asking and what I can’t answer is are shorter players drafted later because they’re shorter rather than for their pre-draft performance. But, if you have pre-draft scoring data, you should be able to test whether height is a significant predictor of draft round once you control for pre-draft offense and league.

    Most forwards seem to be between 5’10” and 6’3″. Looking at the NHL scoring data, the average Pts/GP for forwards in this height range who play for at least 100 games is between 0.42 and 0.46. 6’4″ or taller forwards seem to have to score less than that to get to 100 games. 5’9″ or 5’8″ forwards have to score considerably more (average is above 0.53).

    So if you’re quite a bit shorter than average, you have to have quite a bit better than average offense to last in the league. If you’re quite a bit taller than average, you can come up shy offensively and still have something of a career. And the middle is the middle with a standard survival criteria.

  27. Gayfish says:

    Kinger_Oil.redux: – I’ve come to the conclusion that if one thinks Chia is sh$t: you point to this year, and rationalize that last year was a fluke

    – If Chia is here next year, and the actual results improve while goalie plays better, then Chia is still sh$t, just lucky

    Was Tillman shit because the eskimos were 7-11, or because he traded arguably the best CFL quarterback of all time for absolutely nothing?

  28. Gayfish says:

    jtblack:
    Scungilli Slushy,

    “If they do something that stupid and also get hosed on the trades I’m not sure I’ll be able to watch them.” …..

    Seems like an idle threat ……11 years and counting ….

    I didn’t watch from Jan 1- the end of the season in 2015. Would still be going strong if not for one man.

  29. Pescador says:

    VOR,

    Evening friend,
    I will offer up my thoughts as I have played strictly D for 25+,
    Best way I can describe it is: to be RH’d (which I am) is to be right sided. I am a very dominant righty. Especially right footed, which when it comes to skating is everything.
    Thanks to 25 years of soccer I am no slouch with my left either.
    As a youth, if you were lucky enough to receive some good coaching, you would be taught to push attacking forwards to the outside & not give up the middle.
    Your objective is to then separate the man from the puck or drive that mother into the boards, depending on what level of hockey your playing. So, we have arrived at the turn.
    The point at which you go from skating backwards to opening up your body to either close off the boards and skate in the same direction as the attacker. This is where the footwork aspect of skating kicks in, way easier & quicker to turn to your strong side then your weak.
    Or if you prefer to lay the glorious hip check, cross overs or even just veering to the right or left is easier depending on which is more dominant for you.
    That is defending using your feet, if you are using your stick to check that greasy dirtbag & giving up the outside then you will have way more power on your forehand then backhand.
    Now let’s say you have checked that plumber & stole the puck against the boards but the opposing center thinks he is something special & your easy meat, comes at you with bad intentions & you need to get the puck out of your zone quick or the coach is gonna staple your sorry ass to the pine for the rest of the period.
    Puck on your forehand & steady as she goes you can Kris Russell it (off the boards & out) cause you are lacking in the skill/ hockey sense department & one of your forwards was looping back ready for the short pass ala Leon the other night.
    Let’s say your team has the bounces goin, your up by a couple, your ol’lady is in the stands watchin & your feelin it. Toe drag that dickless bastard to the middle of the ice & lead the fuckin boys up the ice on an odd man rush.
    Sauce it over to Chachi, if he’s half the friend he pretends to be, he’ll fake the clapper & lay it back to you for the open look. Nothin left to do but stuff it in the ol onion bag!
    Sorry about my embarrassing grasp on the printed word. Hope this helps, even if just a little

  30. JD_Wry says:

    BornInAGretzkyJersey:
    smellyglove,

    If/when Seattle gets a team, what’s the best team name?

    —————————————————————————

    Seals?

    Salmon?

    Tsunami?

    etc

    Seamen.

  31. Bob Arctor says:

    BornInAGretzkyJersey:
    smellyglove,

    If/when Seattle gets a team, what’s the best team name?

    —————————————————————————

    Seals?

    Salmon?

    Tsunami?

    etc

    Kraken…but Seattle Seaman does roll off the tongue.

  32. rope-a-dope says:

    OriginalPouzar: 1) I don’t buy that Nicholson mentioning wanting to acquire a top d-man weakens the bargaining position in any way –when Chia gets on the phone with another GM and talks about acquiring one of their top d-men the cat is out of the bag right there.Its not like any manager is going to acquire a player without the opposing GM knowing they want to acquire the player

    2) Absolutely a legit 1st/2nd pairing RHD would help this team and it would help them execute.We currently have two left shot defence playing out of position on the right side every game – often on the top 2 pairings.They are set up to fail.Execution for them is harder on their offside. Putting an actual RHD in that spot would help execution and allow other players to play in their natural positions, again, helping execution.

    Good points on Nicholsons comment.

    On the second item, the addition of 2rd would undoubtedly help the team but let me clarify my previous comment. The team in general terms is not executing at a level sufficient to compete for a playoff spot, what I refer to is the lack of secondary scoring, inability to string passes together, last place pk, struggling powerplay. A 2rd trade helps in some of these but cannot solve these issues fully. These are issues the complete player group and coaching staff are responsible for.

  33. OriginalPouzar says:

    Yamamoto scores that GWG with 28 seconds left – finishes with a goal and an assist in a 3-2 win – yet another multiple point game.

    Benson held off the scoresheet.

  34. OriginalPouzar says:

    Bling:
    OP:

    Adding to the D-corps is always a good idea, but I am not sure that a Tyson Barrie type would be of much help. Will he help 5v5 scoring with Connor off the ice? Will he help the PK? What about Ricki’s box? If giving up HDSC is a concern, how is Tyson Barrie going to help with that?

    If we have to give up an RNH or a Klefbom for a player like that, how does that move the needle?

    The special teams have to get much, much better. Instead of giving up big assets like RNH and Klef for the likes of Barrie, why can’t management instead pursue inexpensive bottom sixers who can actually kill a penalty and a backup goalie who can push Talbot for starts? How about a winger who can keep up with 97, so that 29 can centre his own line?

    This idea of adding another D just shows how out of touch this management group is. They haven’t a clue.

    I never said anything about Tyson Barrie in particular and I definitely never condoned trading Nuge or Klefbom in a trade for Barrie.

  35. OriginalPouzar says:

    Rene Borque opens the scoring for Canada just a few minutes in to the game.

  36. NYC-Back-to-Tokyo Oil (Gentleman Backpacker) says:

    OriginalPouzar: I never said anything about Tyson Barrie in particular and I definitely never condoned trading Nuge or Klefbom in a trade for Barrie.

    Hi OP.

    My personal target?
    A famliar name. Lower bar to acquire.

    Columbus, if they miss the playoffs, likely to shake things up a bit. They plan to probably trade Jack Johnson this summer, meaning one lefty is leaving.

    How about we try to send either Russell (preferred) or Sekera to CBJ, and in the case of Russell offer a sweetener. Sekera is the better D but has a higher salary so straight up works. If Russell goes he is inferior to Savard so we add a pick or B prospect

    Ideally you then have

    Nurse-Savard as 1A
    Klefbom-Larsson as 1B
    Sekera-Benning/Davidson as 3rd pair

    Does it solve all our problems? No. Does it make the balance better? Heck yes.

  37. OriginalPouzar says:

    Noreau makes it 2-0 for Canada on a bomb from the point on the PP.

  38. OriginalPouzar says:

    NYC-Back-to-Tokyo Oil (Gentleman Backpacker): Hi OP.

    My personal target?
    A famliar name. Lower bar to acquire.

    Columbus, if they miss the playoffs, likely to shake things up a bit.They plan to probably trade Jack Johnson this summer, meaning one lefty is leaving.

    How about we try to send either Russell (preferred) or Sekera to CBJ, and in the case of Russell offer a sweetener. Sekera is the better D but has a higher salary so straight up works. If Russell goes he is inferior to Savard so we add a pick or B prospect

    Ideally you then have

    Nurse-Savard as 1A
    Klefbom-Larsson as 1B
    Sekera-Benning/Davidson as 3rd pair

    Does it solve all our problems? No. Does it make the balance better? Heck yes.

    Lets take away the fact that I don’t think Russell would waive for Columbus and assume the trade could be consummated.

    Its a bit of a tough one. Generally I would do anything to get rid of Russell’s contract in connection with the acquisition of a RHD. Savard is a RHD and his contract essentially mirrors that of Russell without trade protection. This issue is that Savard is having a terrible year – his possession metrics, relative, are awful. Last year he was great. Which Savard would we be getting.

    I’m not sure what his puck moving ability is but I’ve got to assume that he can move the puck quicker than Russell can/does while playing on the right side?

  39. Professor Q says:

    OriginalPouzar:
    Noreau makes it 2-0 for Canada on a bomb from the point on the PP.

    The amount of times Cherry said “point” was almost headache-worthy.

    Though now he’s back at it calling the other women’s teams slobs compared to “first-class suave girl Canadians”…

  40. Kinger_Oil.redux says:

    Bank Shot: That’s an unfair way to look at it. I mean math guys were defending Eakins very strongly for his work getting the Oilers slightly above 50% in corsi for a short period.

    Being top 5 in corsi in the NHL doesn’t even seem to get brought up with this crew.

    – So was the team lucky last year with their results, and this year with the same team a truer indication of what the team is (and therefore the true reflection of Chia?)

    – Honest question ? Basically it took a year for all the bad moves and bad GM’ing to catch up

  41. Professor Q says:

    We have a mention of Darnell!

    “Nurse is a great player for Team Canada, and she has a great brother, too.”

    She had a beauty goal, too.

  42. NYC-Back-to-Tokyo Oil (Gentleman Backpacker) says:

    OriginalPouzar: Lets take away the fact that I don’t think Russell would waive for Columbus and assume the trade could be consummated.

    Its a bit of a tough one.Generally I would do anything to get rid of Russell’s contract in connection with the acquisition of a RHD. Savard is a RHD and his contract essentially mirrors that of Russell without trade protection. This issue is that Savard is having a terrible year – his possession metrics, relative, are awful.Last year he was great.Which Savard would we be getting.

    I’m not sure what his puck moving ability is but I’ve got to assume that he can move the puck quicker than Russell can/does while playing on the right side?

    That’s the idea. He has had a bad year. But he has been good in the past. We’d be reversing roles– trying to buy low instead of selling low like we have done in the past.

    Prior to this year and these specific circumstances no way Columbus entertains this.

    But with JJ asking for a trade out they lose a lefty who can be 2nd pair. Savard has stunk. They miss the playoffs would they consider it?

    And yeah it is all moot if Russell or Sekera won’t waive.

    But I would rather that over Nuge for Barrie

  43. NYC-Back-to-Tokyo Oil (Gentleman Backpacker) says:

    Kinger_Oil.redux,
    I know you weren’t asking me but,

    My honest opinion is they were very lucky last year (no injuries and career years from key guys like Klef and Talbot).

    This year they are historically unlucky. Although having had more time to watch just about every game this year I would say although the shot and possession metrics seem good there just is a feeling to me that a lot of our shots are not high danger, but shots given up are so we aren’t as good as the possession numbers suggest we might be, either.

    5v5 is important but special teams is still an actual aspect of NHL hockey so being abysmal at that overall does not help. And yes, I am aware of the anomalous home and road splits but overall we are still bad.

    All that said we aren’t THIS bad.

    We discussed this in summer and I personally felt the roster was downgraded. I felt last year was a 97pt ish team that got zoomed to 103 by luck. I felt this year was a 92pt ish team that fell to 85pts ish by awful special teams, the rest comes down to bad luck and goaltending.

    Does that seem fair? Same roster next year I would expect 95 pts. Normalized luck and better goaltending and a little bit better special teams. Any outperformance would need to come from growth from Puljujarvi, Yamamoto, the D being better, etc.

  44. OriginalPouzar says:

    NYC-Back-to-Tokyo Oil (Gentleman Backpacker): That’s the idea. He has had a bad year. But he has been good in the past. We’d be reversing roles– trying to buy low instead of selling low like we have done in the past.

    Prior to this year and these specific circumstances no way Columbus entertains this.

    But with JJ asking for a trade out they lose a lefty who can be 2nd pair. Savard has stunk. They miss the playoffs would they consider it?

    And yeah it is all moot if Russell or Sekera won’t waive.

    But I would rather that over Nuge for Barrie

    Oh my goodness, 100 times out of 100 I make that deal over Nuge for Barrie.

    I have almost zero interest in trading Nuge unless its a no-brainer, must-make trade.

  45. Professor Q says:

    OriginalPouzar: Oh my goodness, 100 times out of 100 I make that deal over Nuge for Barrie.

    I have almost zero interest in trading Nuge unless its a no-brainer, must-make trade.

    If you can find the dance partner with Columbus, sure. Doesn’t seem bad at all (and I’m definitely not a Russell nor Russell contract hater like most here seem to be).

    And I agree. No reason to trade Nuge. Trading him for the sake of trading him seems to be the thing these days (or trading anyone, really). I feel people are too itchy for a trade for a variety of reasons, not just for quick fixes but that’s an important one. Makes it seem like trading for the sake of trading to me. This isn’t a Pittsburgh situation with Staal.

  46. Scungilli Slushy says:

    I think for Nuge the issue is where he plays and how they see Khaira and Strome.

    In old school GM thinking if he’s 3C they have a 6M 3C. It’s too much. At the same time they’ll think Kassian Letestu and Strome who are all making 1M too much is fine because intangibles or something.

    If they use him on wing they can fill out the top 6 when Drai is centre and move Nuge there when he isn’t.

    It may be that they don’t like Klefbom’s injuries and brain cramps – injuries are why they dropped a willing Pitlick IMO.

    If they want Drai at C the smart move is Nuge for a D. Klefbom just creates a same sized hole on left D in a year or two, or straight away. Nobody on the farm is above a 6-7 D at this point, and Sekera may not come all the way back. Russell’s skill set isn’t a great fit anymore.

  47. NYC-Back-to-Tokyo Oil (Gentleman Backpacker) says:

    Scungilli Slushy:
    I think for Nuge the issue is where he plays and how they see Khaira and Strome.

    In old school GM thinking if he’s 3C they have a 6M 3C. It’s too much. At the same time they’ll think Kassian Letestu and Strome who are all making 1M too much is fine because intangibles or something.

    If they use him on wing they can fill out the top 6 when Drai is centre and move Nuge there when he isn’t.

    It may be that they don’t like Klefbom’s injuries and brain cramps – injuries are why they dropped a willing Pitlick IMO.

    If they want Drai at C the smart move is Nuge for a D. Klefbom just creates a same sized hole on left D in a year or two, or straight away. Nobodyon the farm is above a 6-7 D at this point, and Sekera may not come all the way back. Russell’s skill set isn’t a great fit anymore.

    Hope Chia sees McDavid, Draisaitl, Nuge as his Crosby, Malkin, Kessel. Not as good, mind you. And yes it could have been Hall for the Kessel role and it would have been better but they had to move him to improve the D, I guess. 6m or not, having Nuge means they can play Drai as the winger when needed.

    Could you imagine TMac playing Drai on the wing and then having Strome as the 2C? Yuck.

    Strome should be dealt if he wouldn’t sign for cheaper than his QO on a ‘ show me’ deal.

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