The 62 best players in the 2018 Draft

I’m not telling you anything you don’t already know, but friends, it’s time to turn some of our attention to the draft. Today’s post features the 62 best players in the draft, a mock, and a sincere wish that you and yours let go of the season and allow yourselves to enjoy the beauty that surrounds us. That may involve music, demon liquor, women with infectious laughs, wicked senses of humor and an ability to look past our limitations and agree to be our Valentine. Enjoy the day, ladies and men, we have much to share.

THE ATHLETIC!

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MY BACK PAGES

  • I use NHLE as a strong guiding light. Christian Roatis has the current conversation calculator here.
  • My list list rewards offense heavily, and the most gifted offensive players will be at the top. Players with a range of skills usually do well, but there is a fine line between a two-way player and a checking future. The list does not give high numbers to players who have a lot of their value tied up in the defensive side of the game. Goalies are graded (almost exclusively) by save percentage, although success over more than one season has terrific value.
  • I view Bob McKenzie’s list as the draft Bible, but my list does not factor in any scouts input beyond the obvious. (My list is complete before his final one).
  • Corey Pronman’s views have a major impact on my list. He’s been finding value in the draft for years and his list is unique. Despite my admiration for his work, our lists are not similar. Makes sense, since he’s scouting and evaluating these players, I’m using math and what gets sent my way. Corey’s mid-season list is here.
  • Craig Button’s list has high value for me, I like the fact he has the courage of his convictions.
  • I pay attention to Red Line Report.
  • Simon Boisvert is a wonderful resource. He’s on the Lowdown often, I’m going to have him on this week.
  • I also view McKeen’s, Steve Kournianos, Grant McCagg, Tom Hunter, The Black Book, Scott Wheeler, Brock Otten, Adam Sherren, ISS.
  • I do not copy any rankings (this should be fairly obvious if you look at other rankings).
  • Mark Edwards Black Book is a brilliant reference. His release last year has been very useful for this year’s draft. Highly recommended.
  • It is very rare for me to rank a defenseman No. 1 overall. Last time? Victor Hedman, 2009. Things could change this year.
  • My list is not designed to compete with, or copy any of the sources mentioned above. Organizations like Red Line, ISS, McKeens, Future Considerations and others employ actual scouts who observe, evaluate and project. None of their work is contained here.
  • This list uses math, previous draft trends (the CHL delivers enormous talent to the NHL), various pieces of anecdotal information volunteered by scouts and observers along the way, and an educated guess based on watching these things unfold since 1971.

THE 62 BEST PLAYERS IN THE 2018 DRAFT

  1. (1) LD Rasmus Dahlin, Frolunda (SHL). The franchise defenseman. No negatives.
  2. (2) R Andrei Svechnikov, Barrie Colts (OHL). Complete talent, fleet winger (shoots left).
  3. (3) L Filip Zadina, Halifax Mooseheads (QMJHL). Size, shooter, speed, skill.
  4. (4) LC Jacob Olofsson, Timra (Allsvenskan). Speedy center with skill, he’s an emerging player.
  5. (5) LD Ty Smith, Spokane Chiefs (WHL). Nice range of skills and impressive offense.
  6. (6) RD Adam Boqvist, Brynas (SuperElite). Undersized puck moving defender who is very creative.
  7. (12) R Oliver Wahlstrom, U.S. N. D. P. (USHL). Pure scorer with good size. Plus shot.
  8. (8) L Brady Tkachuk, Boston University (NCAA). Rugged power winger with two-way skills.
  9. (10) LD Quinn Hughes, Michigan (NCAA). Fast as lightning defender, smooth as silk.
  10. (9) RD Ryan Merkley, Guelph Storm (OHL). Ridiculous offensive package.
  11. (7) RC Akil Thomas, Niagara Ice Dogs (OHL). Undersized center with all of the tools.
  12. (11) L Joel Farabee, U.S. N. D. P. (USHL). Speedy winger with legit skill, he’s a little undersized.
  13. (13) LC Filip Hallander, Timra (Allsvenskan). Big, fast forward is an excellent puck transporter.
  14. (18) LC Joe Veleno, Saint-John Sea Dogs (QMJHL). Good size and speed, creative center.
  15. (19) RD Noah Dobson, Acadie-Bathurst Titan (QMJHL). Two-way defenseman.
  16. (21) RD Evan Bouchard, London Knights (OHL). Big numbers, lacks first-step quickness.
  17. (16) LC Barrett Hayton, SSM Greyhounds (OHL). Shooter owns a heavy shot and uses it liberally.
  18. (20) LC Jesperi Kotkaniemi, Assat (Sm-Liiga). Smart, very skilled and he’s 6.02, 190.
  19. (15) LC Ryan McLeod, Mississauga Steelheads (OHL). Late ’99 has size, speed and skill.
  20. (14) RD Jett Woo, Moose Jaw Warriors (WHL). A fine two-way prospect and a rare righty.
  21. (23) RD Calen Addison, Lethbridge Hurricanes (WHL). Creative player, very fast.
  22. (24) R Dominik Bokk, Vajxo Lakers (SuperElite). Elusive skater and a fine stickhandler.
  23. (30) W Samuel Fagemo, Frolunda (SuperElite). Good boots and an excellent shot.
  24. (26) RC Cam Hillis, Guelph Storm (OHL). He’s a burner and he’s spiking.
  25. (25) RD Bode Wilde, U.S. N. D. P. (USHL). Has size, skill, skating ability plus can shoot the puck.
  26. (22) LD K’Andre Miller, U.S. N. D. P. (USHL). Big defender who can skate and has a big shot.
  27. (17) RC Rasmus Kupari, Karpat (Sm-Liiga). Skilled center, offense is the big selling point.
  28. (29) L Isac Lundestrom, Lulea (SHL). He is a burner, probably a little shy offensively.
  29. (NR) LC Linus Nyman, Kingston Frontenacs (OHL). Strong two-way C with impressive offense.
  30. (27) LC Phillipp Kurashev, Quebec Remparts (QMJHL). Intelligent two-way center.
  31. (NR) R Serron Noel, Oshawa Generals (OHL). Big power forward with improving speed.
  32. (NR) G Lukas Dostal, Brno (Czech). Fabulous numbers over the last two seasons.
  33. (28) LC Milos Roman, Vancouver Giants (WHL). A smart player in all areas of the ice.
  34. (NR) LC Jack McBain, Toronto Jr. Canadians (OJHL). Two-way C with size and skill.
  35. (NR) LD Alex Alexeyev, Red Deer Rebels (WHL). Big man, calm feet, has skill.
  36. (31) LD Jared McIssac, Halifax Mooseheads (QMJHL). Powerful skater, emerging offense.
  37. (NR) G Jakub Skarek, Jihlava (Czech). Huge goalie, quality resume.
  38. (NR) L Grigori Denisenko, Yaroslavl (MHL). Shoots right, high-end skill and he’s a puck wizard.
  39. (NR) LC Allan McShane, Oshawa Generals (OHL). A wide range of skills.
  40. (NR) LC Benoit-Olivier Groulx, Halifax Mooseheads (QMJHL). Two-way center with some skill.
  41. (NR) L Jakob Lauko, Chomutov (Czech). Skilled winger with good speed. Offense a mystery.
  42. (NR) LC Nathan Dunkley, London Knights (OHL). Impressive young player with offensive ability.
  43. (NR) R Jesse Ylonen, Espoo United (Mestis). Tall, thin skill winger who is both shooter and playmaker.
  44. (NR) LD Rasmus Sandin, SSM Greyhounds (OHL). Smart, undersized skill defenseman.
  45. (NR) L Cedric Desruisseaux, Drummondville (QMJHL). Impressive 5×5 scorer.
  46. (NR) LD Jonathan Tychonick, Penticton Vees (BCJHL). Puck mover, creative, chaos.
  47. (NR) R Vitali Kravtsov, Traktor (KHL). Terrific skill obscured by playing in big league.
  48. (NR) L Albin Eriksson, Skelleftea (SHL). Big winger, plus speed, promising offense.
  49. (NR) RC Ty Dallandrea, Flint Firebirds (OHL). Skill center plays a rugged style. .88
  50. (NR) L Jack Randl, Omaha Lancers (USHL). Impressive scorer. Zero buzz.
  51. (NR) Martin Kaut, Pardubice (Czech). Big, strong, excellent skater. Offense unclear.
  52. (NR) G Oliver Rodrigue, Drummondville (QMJHL). Best NA goalie by consensus.
  53. (NR) LD Filip Kral, Spokane Chiefs (WHL). Smart puck moving defender. Impressive.
  54. (NR) LC Alexander Khovanov, Moncton Wildcats (QMJHL). Unreal skill.
  55. (NR) L Sampo Ranta, Sioux City Musketeers (USHL). Skill winger with speed and a plus shot.
  56. (NR) RC Kyle Topping, Kelowna Rockets (WHL). Impressive even-strength offense.
  57. (NR) R Kody Clark, Ottawa 67’s (OHL). Rambunctious PF with some skill. Wendel’s boy.
  58. (NR) R Riley Sutter, Everett Silvertips (WHL). A gritty winger with skill. Sutter.
  59. (NR) LC Matej Pekar, Muskegon Lumberjacks (USHL). Playmaking Czech in USHL.
  60. (NR) LC Blake McLaughlin, Chicago Steel (USHL). Undersized skill player.
  61. (NR) R Vladislav Kotkov, Chicoutimi Sagueneens (QMJHL). Big, mobile offensive winger.
  62. (NR) R Aidan Dudas, Owen Sound Attack (OHL). Small, very skilled forward.

OILERS AT THE DRAFT, 2018

  • First Round—No. 5 overall
  • Second Round—No. 36 overall
  • Third Round—No. 67 overall
  • Fourth Round—No. 98 overall (Oilers acquired goaltender Al Montoya from the Montreal Canadiens in exchange for a conditional fourth-round pick in 2018. If Montoya plays less than seven regular season games for the Oilers the draft pick becomes a fifth rounder)
  • Fifth Round—No. 129 overall
  • Sixth Round—No. 160 overall
  • Seventh Round—No. 191 overall

LOWETIDE MOCK DRAFT

For my Mock Draft, I’m using Bob McKenzie’s list as my guideline. Meaning: A player chosen below would still be on the board when the Oilers turn arrived.

  • First Round—No. 5 overall—LD Ty Smith, Spokane Chiefs (WHL). Steve Kournianos: Instinctive two-way force from the blue line with exceptional hockey sense and a strong desire to join the attack and create chances. Smith’s mobility and vision seem to throw opponents into a state of confusion — his ability to transition quickly from defense to offense is excellent. He’s an effortless skater with strong balance and agility, and he can pivot with the best of them. You’ll rarely see Smith get caught chasing his man or losing positioning, as he makes timely reads and anticipates exactly where the puck will end up. Source
  • Second Round—No. 36 overall—LC Linus Nyman, Kingston Frontenacs (OHL). Peter Harling: Nyman (pronounced Newman) is a speedy offensive winger. His explosive acceleration is arguably his best asset and he is a shifty player that hard to hit or check the puck off his stick because of his quick hands and feet. His offensive skills are above average for the OHL and he makes plays and has an excellent sense of timing to jump on loose pucks and rebounds for second chance goals. Nyman lacks size and strength and while he plays hard defensively and physically, he often is ineffective or loses puck battels, not due to lack of compete but because he is just out gunned physically. Source
  • Third Round—No. 67 overall—R Aidan Dudas, Owen Sound Attack (OHL). Tremendous skill, undersized, average speed. He ranks No. 24 in estimated 5×5 points-per-60 in the OHL according to prospect-stats.com. He might be available here, Oilers would be wise to draft these insane skill kids early and often.
  • Fourth Round—No. 98 overall (Oilers acquired goaltender Al Montoya from the Montreal Canadiens in exchange for a conditional fourth-round pick in 2018. If Montoya plays less than seven regular season games for the Oilers the draft pick becomes a fifth rounder)
  • Fifth Round—No. 129 overall—LC Matthew Struthers, North Bay Battalion (OHL). This is a big power forward who has spiked since a mid-season trade. Brock Otten wrote about him here (No.35).
  • Sixth Round—No. 160 overall—LC Jake Wise, USNDTP (USHL). I don’t know where he’s ranked to be honest, but his numbers are good and Steve Kournianos said nice things about him.
  • Seventh Round—No. 191 overall—G Mitchell Gibson, Lone Star Brahmas (NAHL). I admit to at least partially choosing him because of the name of his team, but the young man has a nice resume.

LOWDOWN WITH LOWETIDE

A fun show this morning, beginning at 10, TSN1260. Scheduled to appear:

  • Darcy McLeod, Because Oilers. Talbot, PK, cap.
  • Derek Taylor, TSN. CFL free agency gone wild!
  • AJ Jakubec, TSN1200 Ottawa. The Phaneuf exit.

10-1260 text, @Lowetide on twitter. See you on the radio!

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247 Responses to "The 62 best players in the 2018 Draft"

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  1. Pouzar says:

    2.(2) R Andrei Svechnikov, Barrie Colts (OHL). Complete talent, fleet winger (shoots left).

    “Off to LW you go son”
    –TMc

  2. OriginalPouzar says:

    Over the last month or so, subject to winning one of the three lotteries against the odds, I anticipated the Oilers would be drafting somewhere in the 7-12 range.

    I looked at the standings after the FLA game and have realized there is a real chance that the Oilers could draft as high as #3 even without a lottery win.

    I will still watch every game and hope for Oilers victories but, at the same time, the silver lining to all losses is the draft position and I’m excited to see how it plays out.

  3. frjohnk says:

    Its unfortunate we are at the cap next year. We could have used the Maroon pick ( 2nd rounder Im guessing) and maybe another pick/prospect. Then trade that package to a team in cap hell for a useful but highly paid winger who would be a great fit for our centers.

    Back to building through the draft I guess

  4. OriginalPouzar says:

    The great thing about this draft and our likely draft position is that the 3-8 spots are littered with players that fill our top two needs: 1st/2nd pairing puck moving right shot D and scoring winger.

  5. thehop says:

    I get the feeling that this year’s pick is part of something bigger based on the verbal from Nicholson.
    Lottery protected? Maybe. I’ve got to believe they are going to push to show that the team is better than they have been.

    The only guys that fits needs are Dahlin and Svechnikov in my mind anyway and if the Oilers are outside 1,2, I’m betting it’s part of a package for the elusive #1 RD that this team has needed since the Rake left.

  6. Pouzar says:

    Oh and Adam Boqvist please. Pretty please.

  7. OriginalPouzar says:

    Would any of Svechnikov, Zadina or Tkachuk be NHL ready next season?

    I would think Tkachuk may go back to college for one more year but maybe not.

  8. OriginalPouzar says:

    thehop:
    I get the feeling that this year’s pick is part of something bigger based on the verbal from Nicholson.
    Lottery protected? Maybe. I’ve got to believe they are going to push to show that the team is better than they have been.

    The only guys that fits needs are Dahlin and Svechnikov in my mind anyway and if the Oilers are outside 1,2, I’m betting it’s part of a package for the elusive #1 RD that this team has needed since the Rake left.

    There are a few high end potential puck moving right shot D in the top 8 or so of the draft.

    That is our biggest hole.

    It will likely be a couple of years before that drafted d-man is ready to make an impact in the top 6 but the top 10 is full of players that fill needs – right shot D and scoring winger.

  9. Jethro Tull says:

    Ty Smith; Not only can we have the real Kris Russell, we now also have the chance to draft his natural successor.

  10. Dicky94 says:

    On the bright side, this has to be the farthest (not including last year as I’m pretending that didn’t happen) we have gone into a season without talking draft. There is light at the end of the tunnel!
    GO OILERS!

  11. Brantford Boy says:

    1. Win the lottery and draft Rasmus Dahlin
    2. Continue to suck and actually draft #3 overall, Filip Zadina
    3. Draft where we finish, and use the pick for need, fill the void Noah Dobson, sorry to those who like Adam Boqvist… you had me at ‘undersized’…

  12. dustrock says:

    LT I laughed at your tweet when you said “i posted a mock, you’ll hate it”, had a feeling it was going to be Ty Smith.

    Can’t help but feel Merkley is a home run kind of pick. The Oilers aren’t the right organization and aren’t in the right place in terms of prospects to do this, but man oh man I look at Merkley’s offence and drool. If he can figure it out, he’s going to make a bunch of teams look dumb.

    I.e. he could be this year’s Barzal IMHO.

  13. Pouzar says:

    Brantford Boy: you had me at ‘undersized’…

    Jezzuz H this narrative will never die with Oiler fans.

    Erik Karlsson

    5′ 11″ – 165 lbs on Draft Day during the Moar Big Era to boot.

    http://www.hockeysfuture.com/prospects/erik_karlsson/

  14. JimmyV1965 says:

    I’m with VOR on this. Unless we finish in the top four, I think we should trade down.

  15. Réal Goudenyéu says:

    The fact that everyone is talking about drafting players to fill current roster holes is why this organization sucks.

    No one drafted in 2018 should be in the opening night line up next season but because oilers…

  16. Pouzar says:

    Réal Goudenyéu:
    The fact that everyone is talking about drafting players to fill current roster holes is why this organization sucks.

    No one drafted in 2018 should be in the opening night line up next season but because oilers…

    I am talking about drafting the next Karlsson.
    I watched Youtube bro!

  17. Andy Dufresne says:

    Whats up with the Nicholson comment? Is he setting the table/preparing the fan base for some type of move for a top pairing D?

    Also, Stauffer strongly alluding to a forward with top six/nine potential still on ELC and directly asking whose in town next week and feigning surprise when the response was Boston. Not sure he said it but seemed to imply it was an active roster player. Maroon plus for Danton Heinen??

    Is all of this part of a media leak stratedgy to manage a frustrated fan base?

  18. Pink Socks says:

    Pouzar:
    2.(2) R Andrei Svechnikov, Barrie Colts (OHL). Complete talent, fleet winger (shoots left).

    “Off to LW you go son”
    –TMc

    +1

  19. Brantford Boy says:

    Pouzar,

    I don’t think its my opinion as a die hard Oilers fan, its as a big time hockey fan…

    Yes, we can all pull the really great apples off the list… with that said, many believe this is the first year that Erik Karlsson is actually playing ‘defense’… he has 37 points and is -28 on the season…

    I’m not saying defensemen need to be Shea Weber monsters, but should hold some kind of thickness for puck battles… having a ‘KY on defense’ just isn’t enticing to me… Boqvist offensively though, wow…

  20. JimmyV1965 says:

    Andy Dufresne:
    Whats up with the Nicholson comment? Is he setting the table/preparing the fan base for some type of move for a top pairing D?

    Also, Stauffer strongly alluding to a forward with top six/nine potential still on ELC and directly asking whose in town next week and feigning surprise when the response was Boston. Not sure he said it but seemed to imply it was an active roster player.Maroon plus for Danton Heinen??

    Is all of this part of a media leak stratedgy to manage a frustrated fan base?

    Not sure you have to manage he messsge for a Maroon-Heinen trade. People would be happy with that I think.

  21. Pink Socks says:

    OriginalPouzar:
    Over the last month or so, subject to winning one of the three lotteries against the odds, I anticipated the Oilers would be drafting somewhere in the 7-12 range.

    I looked at the standings after the FLA game and have realized there is a real chance that the Oilers could draft as high as #3 even without a lottery win.

    I will still watch every game and hope for Oilers victories but, at the same time, the silver lining to all losses is the draft position and I’m excited to see how it plays out.

    I agree, still going to watch, difficult as it may be to watch the losing, but the silver lining is the higher pick, and (I’m not proud of it) that every loss and PP goal against more and more likely spells the end of the HC.

    A #3 pick would do wonders for the pipeline.

  22. Andy Dufresne says:

    I wonder to what degreee “Handedness” plays a role in the a trade decsion for a D Man? I mean, cost to purchase aside, surely we would MUCH rather have (and pay more for) a left handed OEL if hes available than we would for a RHD Tyson Barrie.

  23. Andy Dufresne says:

    JimmyV1965: Not sure you have to manage he messsge for a Maroon-Heinen trade. People would be happy with that I think.

    Yes. Thats the play. The message is dont despair good things on the horizon. Btu the Nicholson thing woould be more prepare to say goodbye to two hometwon favorites in RNH and Klef.

  24. Pouzar says:

    JimmyV1965: Not sure you have to manage he messsge for a Maroon-Heinen trade. People would be happy with that I think.

    Never heard of the kid but why would Bruins do this? His numbers are really good.

  25. fifthcartel says:

    Boqvist or Smith. Not enough gawd dang winger.

  26. Andy Dufresne says:

    Pink Socks: I agree, still going to watch, difficult as it may be to watch the losing, but the silver lining is the higher pick, and (I’m not proud of it) that every loss and PP goal against more and more likely spells the end of the HC.

    A #3 pick would do wonders for the pipeline.

    My attitude for a while has been that I hope for a strong finish to the season….upsetting a few of our arch rivals along the way ( Anaheim in particular) all the while hoping that those teams who are just above us in the standings also finsih strong. In other words a strong finish AND a reasonably high draft pick (top 7 pre lottery)

  27. Bag of Pucks says:

    OriginalPouzar: There are a few high end potential puck moving right shot D in the top 8 or so of the draft.

    That is our biggest hole.

    It will likely be a couple of years before that drafted d-man is ready to make an impact in the top 6 but the top 10 is full of players that fill needs – right shot D and scoring winger.

    I think an argument can be made that you’ve already got that player in the system with Ethan Bear, so I’m not sure that RHD is the pressing need pick. Though as the Hall for Larsson trade has shown, you can likely never have too many RHD prospects in your system as they’re valuable currency indeed.

    In terms of the other need (scoring winger), if the Oil land in the Top 5, I think it’s a mistake to draft a winger that high. They simply don’t have the asset value of C and D and you can always move the C off to the wing (ala Draisaitl). Wingers should be picked mid round and later.

    Given where they’re landing with this pick, there a few things the Oil should absolutely not do imho:

    1) Don’t draft a smurf. You’re at the top end of the draft. Getting skill AND size should be easily achievable. Why limit the players’ upside?

    2) Don’t draft slow boots. I don’t care how much of a stickhandling savant or sniper the kid is, you have to have superior wheels in today’s NHL.

    3) Don’t underrate the resume. Has the prospect worn the C? Has he won championships? How committed is he to offseason training? What’s the family situation? Of course, these intangibles shouldn’t carry the day in terms of the baseline evaluation but if you’re stuck between two players, why not lean towards the good kid with the history of leadership and commitment? One thing that has plagued the Oilers of late is alleged dressing room issues. Focusing a tad more on drafting good people in addition to them being a good player wouldn’t be the worst thing for the Oilers to do in terms of augmenting their scouting efficiencies.

  28. Andy Dufresne says:

    Pouzar,

    I dont know, I doubt its Heinen. Just speculating on Stauffers comments. BUT I cant emphasis the term “leverage” enough. What capital do we have to expend. 1) Veteran Talent 2) Cap space

    Just spitballing so forget the names involved. Just think of the strategy. Something like Maroon plus Davidson with all their salary for this year retained. What ELC forward does that get you from Boston (Boston is very tight to the cap)? What about if you add a 2nd round pick in 2018? Are we now in Heinen territory? Heinen was a fourth round pick.

  29. dustrock says:

    The worry, as it seems every year, is whether the Oilers are going to be looking at “NHL readiness”, whatever that means, for their draft pick.

    Because the pressure is on with McDavid and the fanbase wants results.

    There is a part of me that wishes the Oilers never drafted McDavid, because I suspect some of the Chiarelli trades (Reinhart, Hall, maybe Eberle) wouldn’t have happened. And he may not have been able to sign Lucic without McDavid being here. Less pressure for instant success, fewer hasty trades.

    Ah well.

  30. Pouzar says:

    Andy Dufresne:
    Pouzar,

    I dont know, I doubt its Heinen. Just speculating on Stauffers comments. BUT I cant emphasis the term “leverage” enough.What capital do we have to expend. 1) Veteran Talent 1) Cap space

    Just spitballing so forget the names involved. Just think of the strategy. Something like Maroon plus Davidson with all their salary for this year retained. What ELC forward does that get you from Boston? What about if you add a 2nd round pick in 2018? Are we now in Heinen territory?

    Thx for the intel.
    Not sure man…I suck at trades and the draft. :

  31. Bag of Pucks says:

    dustrock:

    There is a part of me that wishes the Oilers never drafted McDavid, because I suspect some of the Chiarelli trades (Reinhart, Hall, maybe Eberle) wouldn’t have happened.

    Your odds of winning the Cup increase exponentially with a generational talent on the roster, if that helps.

  32. Pouzar says:

    Andy Dufresne,

    I am pitching Maroon for Lemieux here with Chevy at the local Starbucks.
    Stay tuned…

  33. StixMalone says:

    We are not trading with Boston unless Chia gets hosed. Fact.

  34. dustrock says:

    Bag of Pucks: Your odds of winning the Cup increase exponentially with a generational talent on the roster, if that helps.

    Yes, I’m aware. Just saying between McDavid and the new arena, it is possible Chia felt forced into some of these moves.

  35. JimmyV1965 says:

    Pouzar: Never heard of the kid but why would Bruins do this? His numbers are really good.

    Not sure why they would do this. Doesn’t make a lot of sense. There was talk earlier in the year of RNH for Heinen trade.

  36. frjohnk says:

    StixMalone: We are not trading with Boston unless Chia gets hosed. Fact.

    Add Boston to the list of New Jersey, New York Islanders of Chia getting hosed in big trades.

    EDIT: Oops, forgot about Dallas

  37. Andy Dufresne says:

    dustrock:
    The worry, as it seems every year, is whether the Oilers are going to be looking at “NHL readiness”, whatever that means, for their draft pick.

    Because the pressure is on with McDavid and the fanbase wants results.

    There is a part of me that wishes the Oilers never drafted McDavid, because I suspect some of the Chiarelli trades (Reinhart, Hall, maybe Eberle) wouldn’t have happened.And he may not have been able to sign Lucic without McDavid being here.Less pressure for instant success, fewer hasty trades.

    Ah well.

    I get that thier is a part of you that sees a small small downside to drafting MCDavid. The miniscule downside for me is that the Oilers instantly became a target for every other team in the leaque. Teams used to coast through Edmonton and use the occasion to catch up on their sleep, thier laundry and letters to loved ones….Now, EVERY team comes in here prepared to play their best game so as not to get embaressed by the Wunderkind…..Hence EVERY backup goalie in the league stones us! Every bottom dweller team stones us! In Fact I think part of the Oilers problems are that they think they are as good as their best game…..when they should be thinking “we’re only as good as our worst game” If there was ever a team that needed to improve its record against shitty teams…its this years Oilers.

  38. Pouzar says:

    JimmyV1965: Not sure why they would do this. Doesn’t make a lot of sense. There was talk earlier in the year of RNH for Heinen trade.

    Well the kid is on track for 50+ pts….Looking at you NUGE!!!!

  39. frjohnk says:

    Bag of Pucks: Your odds of winning the Cup increase exponentially with a generational talent on the roster,

    As long as he is surrounded by impact players.

    We have had a few stumbles along the way.

  40. Andy Dufresne says:

    frjohnk: Add Boston to the list of New Jersey, New York Islanders of Chia getting hosed in big trades.

    EDIT: Oops, forgot about Dallas

    Based on the Stauffer verbal….which Boston forward on an ELC would he be talking about?

  41. Pouzar says:

    Bag of Pucks: I think an argument can be made that you’ve already got that player in the system with Ethan Bear

    I would love to know how his AHL numbers compare to the first year of some other offensive talents in the NHL. Too bad he missed some games to concussion which has definitely affected his development. Nonetheless, 12 points in 29 games isn’t too shabby at first blush.

  42. Pouzar says:

    Andy Dufresne: Based on the Stauffer verbal….which Bostonforward on an ELC would he be talking about?

    List of ELC on Bruins

    Anders Bjork (LW, RW)
    Danton Heinen (C, LW, RW)
    Jake Debrusk (LW)
    Sean Kuraly (LW)
    Frank Vatrano (LW,C)

    Charlie McAvoy (RD)
    Matt Grzelcyk (LD)
    Brandon Carlo (RD)

  43. Andy Dufresne says:

    JimmyV1965,

    Well at least we know RNH is safe for now as you cant trade an injured player at the deadline….I think?

  44. Dicky94 says:

    Pouzar,

    Oh I would love that trade. TSN said last night during the Jets game that Maroon would be a nice fit. Testube also.

  45. frjohnk says:

    Andy Dufresne: Based on the Stauffer verbal….which Bostonforward on an ELC would he be talking about?

    Vatrano or Bjork?

    Boston is not giving up a young player that is making an impact this year for Maroon, even if we add.

  46. OriginalPouzar says:

    Sekera not practicing today – McLellan mentioned prior to the game on Monday that he could be ready for Thursday but its not looking likely.

  47. Pouzar says:

    Dicky94:
    Pouzar,

    Oh I would love that trade. TSN said last night during the Jets game that Maroon would be a nice fit. Testube also.

    I think Maroon would be right in their wheelhouse…the ask on Nash is silly and well…..because Chia.

    If it’s any of any value, my Jets buddy here loves the trade lol.

  48. Pouzar says:

    Dicky94: Testube also.

    Dude I live next to the airport and walk through Bell MTS every day.
    I will pick him up, drop him off AND cook eggs and bacon in the AM too.

  49. Jethro Tull says:

    Pouzar: Jezzuz H this narrative will never die with Oiler fans.

    Erik Karlsson

    5′ 11″ – 165 lbs on Draft Day during the Moar Big Era to boot.

    http://www.hockeysfuture.com/prospects/erik_karlsson/

    Using outliers as comparisons can be a slippery slope. Your are inferring that there is a good chance the prospect has the same career trajectory as the outlier.

    You are actually doing the same as us, but from the wrong side of the fence. We say “due to his size, there are more comparable players of the same size and ability who haven’t made the NHL than have.”

    To which you reply “I’m sick of this, here is a guy that is similar size, but has won multiple Norris trophies.”

    All things being equal, what do you feel is the more likely outcome?

    Ideally you want the trifecta: Skill, size, speed. These interchange in importance in any given year/season, even game. If you are drafting someone who is lacking more than average in any one of these, they better be bringing something else to the table.

    That 2008 draft is great. But look at who was drafted above Karlsson. For interest only, Stamkos is the head and shoulders leader, but can anyone guess who the next best goal scorer has been in the NHL after him?

  50. N64 says:

    “and a sincere wish that you and yours let go of the season”.

    ~ I can’t say I’ve completely let go of the season, but I do let its first shot go past me every time. ~

  51. frjohnk says:

    Jethro Tull: For interest only, Stamkos is the head and shoulders leader, but can anyone guess who the next best goal scorer has been in the NHL after him?

    Pretty sure its that guy Cap Space

  52. Jethro Tull says:

    frjohnk: Vatrano or Bjork?

    Boston is not giving up a young player that is making an impact this year for Maroon, even if we add.

    Bjork bjork? Gobbedy gobbedy turkey! Dur chicken in der basket!

    Lol, if it’s Bjork, the would explain why it’s oh so quiet…..

  53. Psyche says:

    Woodguy, assuming you’re out there, terrific interview with LT this morning. I especially enjoyed your rant – which was completely accurate! LT did a great job of asking the right questions and then allowing you to unleash. Bravo gentlemen!

  54. Andy Dufresne says:

    Pouzar: Thx for the intel.
    Not sure man…I suck at trades and the draft. :

    Pouzar: Thx for the intel.
    Not sure man…I suck at trades and the draft. :

    Respectfully, LT aside, I think we all suck at his draft thing. We are picking players we have never seen play based on paragraph sized descriptions compiled by with guys who gvie you 90% positives 10% downsides…..then we all feel smart picking from the same 7 players at the top of the list….only to have our hopes dashed when at the very last minute..at the height of our anticipation…our team picks the coke machine or even worse trades away our hope……Its a fools game….but for some f^*ked up reason…I LOVE IT!

  55. Dicky94 says:

    Pouzar,

    Might have to add to get Lemieux? He would be worth it. Throw in Petan for Letestu as well. It’s been so long since Chevy has made a trade he might panic and throw in a first.

  56. Bad Seed says:

    Pouzar,

    This is easy – gotta be Debrusk for the obvious reason.

  57. OriginalPouzar says:

    Bag of Pucks: I think an argument can be made that you’ve already got that player in the system with Ethan Bear, so I’m not sure that RHD is the pressing need pick. Though as the Hall for Larsson trade has shown, you can likely never have too many RHD prospects in your system as they’re valuable currency indeed.

    Ethan Bear is a nice prospect but there is a decent chance he never gets more than a cup of coffee in the NHL and, frankly, it he ever does “make it”, I’m not so sure his ceiling is not that of a 3rd pairing d-man and PP specialist – Tyson Barrie light.

    I hope I’m wrong.

    Yes, I know the same thing can be said for our forward prospects (Yamamto, Benson, Safin, Maksimov, all the lesser prospects, Hebig, Vessel, McPhee, Rasanen, etc) but I feel its “easier” to develop in to a top 6 winger than a top 2 pairing d-man and I believe we have more bullets in the chamber at forward.

  58. Dicky94 says:

    Pouzar,

    Sounds good. I’ll drive in for the b & e’s.

  59. Pouzar says:

    Jethro Tull: Using outliers as comparisons can be a slippery slope. Your are inferring that there is a good chance the prospect has the same career trajectory as the outlier.

    Not my intention. Karlsson obviously is the Grand Slam scenario but it was for illustrative purposes.

    Ellis, Letang, Dumba are other examples off the top my head.

  60. Pouzar says:

    Bad Seed:
    Pouzar,

    This is easy – gotta be Debrusk for the obvious reason.

    We wish…he could be the only NHLer of the 3 picks before Barzal.

  61. LadiesloveSmid says:

    Probably looking at Bjork or Forsbacka-Karlsson from Boston

  62. Pouzar says:

    Dicky94: Might have to add to get Lemieux?

    My gut says no but I suck at trades as I have mentioned before.
    NHL GMs are voodoo.

  63. Pouzar says:

    Dicky94:
    Pouzar,

    Sounds good. I’ll drive in for the b & e’s.

    Kewl….just ignore Padre standing by the stove.

  64. Andy Dufresne says:

    LadiesloveSmid,

    This sounds about right. The quesion then becomes do you prefer either of these guys to a 2nd round pick.

    The other question for me is…if Maroon is worth a second round pick…..is he not worth more (to a cap strapped team like Boston or Tampa) if you are willing to eat all of his salary/cap ?

  65. Truth says:

    If Chiarelli is still GM at the draft I’d say they’ll take Tkachuk at whatever position they’re at and if he’s available, of course if they don’t get #1 overall. His brother south of here by all accounts is tamer and less skilled than Brady. I’d say he fits Chiarelli’s mold and I don’t think I’d be dissapointed with the pick either.

    However, he could go full Chiarelli on us and trade the pick for Travis Hamonic. Only for both Tkachuks to be a huge pain vs. the Oilers for the foreseeable future.

  66. Andy Dufresne says:

    Slovakia Slovenia upset USA and Russia. Olympic hockey might be worth getting excited about.

  67. OriginalPouzar says:

    Oh, I’m excited for the Olympic hockey – game 1 tomorrow at 5am and game 2 on Friday night.

    Can’t wait.

  68. JimmyV1965 says:

    Andy Dufresne:
    Respectfully, LT aside, I think we all suck at his draft thing. We are picking players we have never seen play based on paragraph sized descriptions compiled by with guys who gvie you 90% positives 10% downsides…..then we all feel smart picking from the same 7 players at the top of the list….only to have our hopes dashed when at the very last minute..at the height of our anticipation…our team picks the coke machine or even worse trades away our hope……Its afools game….but for some f^*ked up reason…I LOVE IT!

    Agreed. We have our favourites, but for most of us our knowledge about the guys being drafted could fit in a thimble.

  69. frjohnk says:

    Pouzar: Kewl….just ignore Padre standing by the stove.

    Bring some beer.

    Pouzar’s stock is non existent.

    Again.

  70. Pescador says:

    Pouzar:
    Andy Dufresne,

    I am pitching Maroon for Lemieux here with Chevy at the local Starbucks.
    Stay tuned…

    Pouzar:
    Andy Dufresne,

    I am pitching Maroon for Lemieux here with Chevy at the local Starbucks.
    Stay tuned…

    Ask him if he got my letters

  71. Pescador says:

    frjohnk: Bring some beer.

    Pouzar’s stock is non existent.

    Again.

    I smell something in the oven, I think your pants are done

  72. leadfarmer says:

    Zadina or Boqvist has me drooling and thats even without a possibility of winning the lottery. Could we please fire Chia and put in interim GM Mr. Dithers after trade deadline to win the draft lotto

  73. Melman says:

    Dahlin shoots left. If they win the lottery Keith will trade the pick for Barrie so we get to see LT’s balance photo…we’ve been waiting for it so long I am now convinced it will be in black and white!

  74. Gayfish says:

    The Nicholson comments make me uneasy- if they are big game hunting for one of the rumored guys (OEL,Doughty,Karlssom,etc), then we are looking to send salary out. Two most likely to go are Nuge and Klef. I’m not sure our team is better after that. We would lose our only position of strength, and that forward group looks even more craptastic. I won’t say the W word, but I’m deathly afraid of a certain move.

  75. N64 says:

    Melman: we’ve been waiting for it so long I am now convinced it will be in black and white!

    ~ It’s in ascii art. If anyone has a working Hollerith card reader LT has the card trays ready to load ~

  76. Gayfish says:

    OriginalPouzar:
    Oh, I’m excited for the Olympic hockey – game 1 tomorrow at 5am and game 2 on Friday night.

    Can’t wait.

    I’m boycotting the mens hockey. I don’t want watching Oilers castoffs become the norm.

    Super excited for Snowboard cross though.

  77. Gret99zky says:

    OriginalPouzar:
    The great thing about this draft and our likely draft position is that the 3-8 spots are littered with players that fill our top two needs: 1st/2nd pairing puck moving right shot D and scoring winger.

    That will fill our top two needs in 2 or 3 years time.

  78. Gayfish says:

    OriginalPouzar: Ethan Bear is a nice prospect but there is a decent chance he never gets more than a cup of coffee in the NHL and, frankly, it he ever does “make it”, I’m not so sure his ceiling is not that of a 3rd pairing d-man and PP specialist – Tyson Barrie light.

    I hope I’m wrong.

    Yes, I know the same thing can be said for our forward prospects (Yamamto, Benson, Safin, Maksimov, all the lesser prospects, Hebig, Vessel, McPhee, Rasanen, etc) but I feel its “easier” to develop in to a top 6 winger than a top 2 pairing d-man and I believe we have more bullets in the chamber at forward.

    I think you are out to lunch. Oilers haven’t developed any top 6 fwds outside the lotto picks, but have gotten several project dmen to work out (though not usually here). Moto is a prospect, and Benson might eventually find his was, but the rest have very slim chances at top 6. I think wer probably get one of Benson or Yamamoto.

  79. Truth says:

    Gayfish:
    The Nicholson comments make me uneasy

    I only assume this feeling is shared by many Oilers fans. Oilers brass and their media puppets spent a great deal of time justifying that the cost of a Larsson is a Taylor Hall. What is their perceived acquisition cost of an OEL?

  80. OilClog says:

    No one is saying it but all I heard from Nicholson is that the Oilers are trading Nuge and Klef for Weber.

  81. OilClog says:

    Truth: I only assume this feeling is shared by many Oilers fans.Oilers brass and their media puppets spent a great deal of time justifying that the cost of a Larsson is a Taylor Hall.What is their perceived acquisition cost of an OEL?

    Two established roster players and a pick, Phx put the ask out there. This is where Ebs and Barzal would of helped lol

  82. Andy Dufresne says:

    So the Nicholson comment clarification coming from Stauffer is a change to the defense to add a more dynamic element…..then Stauffer brings up Tyson Barrie (suggests might be a summertime move) and then throws out LHD Tory Krug perhaps to muddy the waters a little.

  83. Andy Dufresne says:

    OilClog,

    Would you do Nuge, Strome and 2019 1st for OEL?

  84. Andy Dufresne says:

    If we follow Stauffers lead on this….Colorado has been winning without Barrie….what is the aquisition cost for Barrie?

    And if the organization is commited to getting a Barrie type in the summer then does that mean they draft a forward?

  85. godot10 says:

    Andy Dufresne:
    So the Nicholson comment clarification coming from Stauffer is a change to the defense to add a more dynamic element…..then Stauffer brings up Tyson Barrie (suggests might be a summertime move) and then throws out LHD Tory Krug perhaps to muddy the waters a little.

    You can’t add a more dynamic element to the defense if the breakout system is designed to stifle dynamism.

    Pittsburgh was/is dynamic with a bunch of nobodies on the blueline.

    The problem isn’t the defensemen (apart from Russell). The problem is the breakout system, and the slow boots of many of the Chiarelli’s heavy forwards.

    The only thing dynamic about the Oilers is when McDavid and Nurse break out of the system and do their own thing.

    By changing the coach one can add 5 dynamic defensemen.

  86. dustrock says:

    OilClog:
    No one is saying it but all I heard from Nicholson is that the Oilers are trading Nuge and Klef for Weber.

    Well, at least this would be entertaining.

  87. Georges says:

    On the Nicholson thing, I found this from 2015:

    “While Peter Chiarelli was the one who unveiled this organization’s latest “catch” to the masses, the duo of Bob Nicholson and Craig MacTavish had actually reached out to McLellan before the former Boston Bruins general manager was even brought on board.”

    https://thehockeywriters.com/mcdavid-mclellan-buys-oilers-another-year/

    … that’s not… good…

    At the time of the hiring, Nicholson considered the Edmonton Oilers “extremely fortunate” to have been given the opportunity to hire a coach as experienced, intelligent and successful as Todd McLellan. (I know… what else he gonna tell Gene?)

    http://www.sportsnet.ca/hockey/nhl/nicholson-extremely-fortunate-to-hire-mclellan/

    But he’s patting himself on the back for a decision he shouldn’t make. The GM has to own that. GM’s live and die by their HC decisions (unless you’re Poile or Sather). Did PC “negotiate” the 5-year contract? PC showed in Boston he could give up on an HC after a disappointing start. I wonder if he had that option here. Or if McLellan is a made guy because I don’t know, all of his success with the Hockey Canada thing.

    Nicholson is now stepping on stage in place of his GM and talking about adding “another top defenseman” adding that “we’ve got some assets that we could trade here.” Cue Spector trotting out the no one’s safe article. Gawwd.

    It’s a good thing that an experienced Hockey Canada hand like Nicholson sees the players as the problem… again. Also good he has his World Championship winning HC’s back. If it is PC that’s done and the HC is safe… blah.

    Why are we so bad at this? When a roster that was picked to make the Cup Finals doesn’t have major injuries and doesn’t make the playoffs, is the correct conclusion: the roster isn’t good enough to make the playoffs… we’re so far away… let’s gut the roster!

    Why are we so bad at this? No coach in the 30-team era has put together a 3-year record like our guy is working on and gone on to lead his team to playoff success. Again, to be clear, by no coach, I mean not one coach. The disconnect between his successful reputation and his performance in each of his 3 seasons here is such that you can’t even see that reputation if you go stand by his performance. Coaches make their mark early. McLellan has made his mark. As he promised us when he was hired, he’s built his foundation. And he should be appropriately rewarded.

    Why isn’t even the obvious obvious?

    There are 3 tiers of orgs. in recent hockey. PIT, CHI, DET are in the top tier. Long periods of contending, multiple championships.

    There’s a middle tier of orgs that sometimes win a championship (LAK has won 2) and manage to stay somewhat relevant. Maybe not as lucky. Maybe not as well run.

    Then there’s our tier. Not a lot of success, in and out of the playoffs, very few playoff series wins. Clue. Less.

    But our management, as many of you have pointed out, talk like they’re top tier and act like they’re bottom tier. The thing is, if you really care about winning and you have a record like that, it would and should eat away at you. Not winning should hurt you deep in your bones.

    Pawning off our “not good enough” roster off of the information we have from this and the past two seasons is very, very third tier, Mr. Nicholson. So is publicly undermining the GM you hired. So is hiring the HC. And protecting him from the consequences of his on the job performance.

  88. VOR says:

    Size as a variable for predicting success at the NHL level is a stunning example of how hard it is to overcome cognitive bias. The math is overwhelming – size does not correlate with NHL success regardless of time period, position, or measurement metric.

    Study after study has reached the same conclusion. To date I have built up a database of 18 and I am still looking. I have yet to find any studies arguing for the use of size in drafting strategies for the NHL draft. These studies have looked at survivor bias, available size distributions, and a crap load of other complicating factors.

    Measurement metrics have included games played, TOI, ppg, GvT, and goals. As I said they all reach the same conclusion. I have tried posting some of the studies here. To date I have changed no minds.

    What gets me is that of the scouts and GMs and former scouts and GMs I have interviewed I have found only 8% strongly believe size doesn’t matter. And it is less than that among the media and if it is 1% of hockey fans I’d be amazed. This is why I have spent years trying to prove size does matter, I am a stubborn, contrary SOB who believes in collective wisdom. As a principle I assume the crowd is right – but the math should align at some point.

    My own research suggests bigger is better in the top ten picks, size is not correlated from 11-20, and smaller is better in the next ten picks (21-30), for the thirty picks that follow (31-60) both really big and really small players significantly underperform their average colleagues. I am a complete outlier in finding any size correlation. This is why I haven’t published yet. I am still trying new approaches to the data, still trying to figure out how so many eyeballs can be so wrong.

    That said, from pick 61 to the end of the draft I find the same thing every else does – size doesn’t matter. Well except in the 7th round.

    Right now I am testing a new hypothesis. That while size doesn’t predict success it does predict failure. In simple English I am testing whether small guys who get a chance to play in the NHL fail more frequently than average or above average size players when opportunity is allowed for.

    I started looking at whether “smallness” at time of draft was correlated with never making the NHL at all. And it is. However, two problems. Smaller players are more likely to be drafted in later rounds suggesting a long shot – home run strategy and based on performance in College and the AHL have to do more to get an NHL opportunity than larger players. So when we look at playing in the NHL or games played in the NHL by round rather than by population size mostly doesn’t matter. When we look at points or goals smaller (1SD) below mean is slightly positively correlated with goals and points Pearson r = .113, one SD above is also positively correlated r = .094 in picks above 180 and no other correlations are found. In round 7 look for size outliers.

    I am coming to the conclusion that there are subtle size correlations hiding in the draft. However, because the most obvious is big is better (and remember individuals are never populations) at the very top of the draft we assume the rest of the draft follows the same rule. And it doesn’t.

    But I am sure I have convinced nobody and that no evidence ever would. People who believe size doesn’t matter won’t believe me that it does and in fascinating, subtle, and complex ways. The MOAR bigger or the modern size, skill, and speed crowd see obvious evidence of bigger, bigger, bigger is better wherever they look and won’t believe me when I point out the evidence isn’t at all obvious.

    I am curious if there are any fellow travellers – size is a still poorly understood predictive variable a better understanding of which could lead to arbitrage opportunities – fellow travellers here on LT?

  89. Georges says:

    Here’s another way to explain this season other than because roster:

    – the Oilers are -42 on the PK
    – they’re +18 on the PP

    – this works out to -24 in 55 games, or a .436 goal disadvantage on the special teams per game
    – that would rank our special teams the 28th worst out of 994 teams that have played since 1979-80
    – is our roster the 28th worst of those 994 teams?

    – not a single team with a special team performance that’s worse than ours hit the .500 mark on P%
    – the average P% of the 27 teams that were worse than us was .316

    – being that bad at special teams cannot be overcome
    – special teams are so important that each component has a coach who coaches just that part of the game
    – so I’d say special teams overall is a heavily (and in our case badly) coached part of the game
    – a problem that wasn’t anticipated, isolated, addressed, or fixed

    – here are some of the more recent HC’s who’ve achieved that level of not so special special teams results: Hanlon, Yawney, Nolan, Kitchen, Fraser, Renney
    – is anyone stepping up to laud these no longer coaching gentlemen as experienced, intelligent and successful (as Nicholson introduced McLellan to the town)?

    – if we managed just mediocre special teams (0 goal differential), we’d have an overall goal differential of -4
    – that would put us in the playoff race
    – it’s actually more likely that mediocre special teams, by not sapping our players’ confidence and putting us in bad score situations, would have allowed us to win even more than we have at 5v5
    – which would mean we’d be comfortably in the playoff race

    – how many times does the casual fan have to see an opponent skate clear on Talbot from his glove side while our guys stand in a line in the middle before the fan is allowed to say well I might not be experienced, intelligent, or successful… I don’t have rings I can stuff in my ears… but, hey man, that’s just wrong…

  90. Pescador says:

    OilClog: Two established roster players and a pick, Phx put the ask out there. This is where Ebs and Barzal would of helped lol

    3-1 Oilers style,
    Nuge Klef & 2019 1st -OEL
    FTS

  91. OilClog says:

    Andy Dufresne:
    OilClog,

    Would you do Nuge, Strome and 2019 1st for OEL?

    If he’s signed. That would leave the Oilers to flip Klef for an underwhelming over paid return. Just peachy lol

    Klef, Strome, pick.

  92. OilClog says:

    If Nuge and Klef are packaged together I wouldn’t take anything less then Erik the red.

  93. Pescador says:

    Andy Dufresne:
    So coming from Stauffer is a change to the defense to add a more dynamic element…..then Stauffer brings up Tyson Barrie (suggests might be a summertime move)

    Klefbom for Barrie
    I’m fine with this, but why do they always feel the need to telegraph it to the world?
    Sakic will force their hand & walk away with high draft picks as well.

  94. OilClog says:

    Mind you with this coach Erik, Connor and Leon would never be on the ice together. Coach loves his forth line rolling with his top pair and Mcdavid and Leon stuck with fucking no pass Russell.

    This coach and his damn tired ways

  95. OilClog says:

    I think if Klef is traded for Barrie, it’s another horrible trade loss.

    Barrie needs mega shelter, Oilers have no way to shelter him. Will be tragic ugly

  96. Pouzar says:

    Pescador:
    Ask him if he got my letters

    He did and he wants to know why you hate him.

  97. GMB3 says:

    Pouzar:
    2.(2) R Andrei Svechnikov, Barrie Colts (OHL). Complete talent, fleet winger (shoots left).

    “Off to LW you go son”
    –TMc

    My exact thoughts

  98. GMB3 says:

    Brantford Boy:
    1. Win the lottery and draft Rasmus Dahlin
    2. Continue to suck and actually draft #3 overall, Filip Zadina
    3. Draft where we finish, and use the pick for need, fill the void Noah Dobson, sorry to those who like Adam Boqvist… you had me at ‘undersized’…

    Hopefully your significant isn’t so concerned about size!

  99. Pescador says:

    Pouzar: Dude I live next to the airport and walk through Bell MTS every day.
    I will pick him up, drop him off AND cook eggs and bacon in the AM too.

    How about a Derek Jeter style gift basket instead of breakfast?

  100. OilClog says:

    Svechnikov? Why would anyone want to kill that kids career by the Oilers drafting him

    TMac- Sven! You turned the puck over once! Press box for 11 games for you, I’ll play you on that 12th game for 9mins and bitch you aren’t taking advantage of your chances..

    TMac- one day these bastards will stop drafting sideburns

  101. GMB3 says:

    Réal Goudenyéu:
    The fact that everyone is talking about drafting players to fill current roster holes is why this organization sucks.

    No one drafted in 2018 should be in the opening night line up next season but because oilers…

    Really? You think you are smarter than basically every draft guy out there who all seem to share the opinion that the top 3 are NHL ready, and that Dahlin is probably going to have an impact as a first year pro in NA? Have you spent a lot of time scouting these kids?

  102. OriginalPouzar says:

    Gret99zky: That will fill our top two needs in 2 or 3 years time.

    Yup, probably although the 3 top forwards could very well be NHL ready and, no, not just NHL ready #becauseOIlers but because high end offensive forwards often go direct to the NHL in their draft year.

    To be determined.

  103. Pescador says:

    Pouzar: He did and he wants to know why you hate him.

    Jeez Louise
    I just said that he has a very punchable face,
    doesn’t mean I hate him.
    I mean I hate what he’s doing & his suits are ugly,
    but I like him plenty

  104. OriginalPouzar says:

    Gayfish: I think you are out to lunch. Oilers haven’t developed any top 6 fwds outside the lotto picks, but have gotten several project dmen to work out (though not usually here). Moto is a prospect, and Benson might eventually find his was, but the rest have very slim chances at top 6. I think wer probably get one of Benson or Yamamoto.

    Jordan Eberle – drafted in the exact same position as Yamamoto.

    The past does not predict the future.

    They Oilers have one prospect with a decent chance of being a right shot D in the NHL (Mantha is a distant bell).

    The Oilers have multiple prospects with a decent chance of being a top 6 NHL forward.

  105. Pouzar says:

    Georges:
    Here’s another way to explain this season other than because roster:

    – the Oilers are -42 on the PK
    – they’re +18 on the PP

    – this works out to -24 in 55 games, or a .436 goal disadvantage on the special teams per game
    – that would rank our special teams the 28th worst out of 994 teams that have played since 1979-80
    – is our roster the 28th worst of those 994 teams?

    – not a single team with a special team performance that’s worse than ours hit the .500 mark on P%
    – the average P% of the 27 teams that were worse than us was .316

    – being that bad at special teams cannot be overcome
    – special teams are so important that each component has a coach who coaches just that part of the game
    – so I’d say special teams overall is a heavily (and in our case badly) coached part of the game
    – a problem that wasn’t anticipated, isolated, addressed, or fixed

    – here are some of the more recent HC’s who’ve achieved that level of not so special special teams results: Hanlon, Yawney, Nolan, Kitchen, Fraser, Renney
    – is anyone stepping up to laud these no longer coaching gentlemen as experienced, intelligent and successful (as Nicholson introduced McLellan to the town)?

    – if we managed just mediocre special teams (0 goal differential), we’d have an overall goal differential of -4
    – that would put us in the playoff race
    – it’s actually more likely that mediocre special teams, by not sapping our players’ confidence and putting us in bad score situations, would have allowed us to win even more than we have at 5v5
    – which would mean we’d be comfortably in the playoff race

    – how many times does the casual fan have to see an opponent skate clear on Talbot from his glove side while our guys stand in a line in the middle before the fan is allowed to say well I might not be experienced, intelligent, or successful… I don’t have rings I can stuff in my ears… but, hey man, that’s just wrong…

    Beauty!

  106. OriginalPouzar says:

    Andy Dufresne:
    OilClog,

    Would you do Nuge, Strome and 2019 1st for OEL?

    Probably but there is huge risk (1) that would provide us with 5 left shot D making over $4M and (2) OEL only has 2 years left on his deal and can’t be re-signed until July 1 – I would not do the deal until after July 1 and only if OEL is willing to sign a “reasonable” extension.

    We would recoup assets in the corresponding Klefbom trade but, unless that trade brings back a 1/2 RD, we are still left without filling our biggest hole.

  107. Pouzar says:

    Pescador: Jeez Louise
    I just said that he has a very punchable face,
    doesn’t mean I hate him.
    I mean I hate what he’s doing & his suits are ugly,
    but I like him plenty

    ahhhhhhhhhhhhh….well you know Chevy….always readin between the lines.

  108. OriginalPouzar says:

    godot10: You can’t add a more dynamic element to the defense if the breakout system is designed to stifle dynamism.

    I think I have responded to this theory of yours 6 times with an alternate explanation which you have ignored every single time. I disagree on your assessment of the system but will not waste my time going in to detail of why for the 7th time.

  109. GMB3 says:

    Truth:
    If Chiarelli is still GM at the draft I’d say they’ll take Tkachuk at whatever position they’re at and if he’s available, of course if they don’t get #1 overall.His brother south of here by all accounts is tamer and less skilled than Brady.I’d say he fits Chiarelli’s mold and I don’t think I’d be dissapointed with the pick either.

    However, he could go full Chiarelli on us and trade the pick for Travis Hamonic.Only for both Tkachuks to be a huge pain vs. the Oilers for the foreseeable future.

    I think it would be classic Chia to draft Brady because he realized he missed on Matt. I’m not sure Brady has the offensive chops his older brother does. Matt just destroyed the OHL and when you look at the math it’s hard to believe he didn’t go before JP or PLD

  110. Andy Dufresne says:

    Pouzar:
    2.(2) R Andrei Svechnikov, Barrie Colts (OHL). Complete talent, fleet winger (shoots left).

    “Off to LW you go son”
    –TMc

    When the two players are close in skill set….always take the guy from the OHL or the guy from the Q

    Svechnikov > Zadina

  111. OriginalPouzar says:

    Pescador: Klefbom for Barrie
    I’m fine with this, but why do they always feel the need to telegraph it to the world?
    Sakic will force their hand & walk away with high draft picks as well.

    I don’t think “telegraphing it” has any idea.

    Bob Nicholson stating that they would like to add a top end d-man means nothing in trade negotiations.

    I would think that Sakic (or any GM) would be able to figure out such desire when, you know, Chiarelli is calling them about acquiring such a d-man.

  112. JimmyV1965 says:

    I’m growing increasingly apprehensive that mngt will overreact to our current situation and trade away good assets that cripple our long-term future to gain a marginal asset for some perceived short term gain.

    We’re hearing a lot about Tyson Barrie as a RHD PP specialist. I don’t think we need him. We need a RHD that can play good defence and move the puck out of our zone. ANY team with McDavid and Drai should have an excellent PP. We had one of the best in the league last year. The regression this year is on coaching and a lack of confidence.

    I would even be okay with a Klef for Barrie trade. We are giving up the better player yet again, but the gap is smaller and it’s a RHD. But the Avs will want RNH because they only have one good C. That would be a disaster. You’re trading a C who can play in all situations for a one-trick PP guy, who should probably be on the third pair.

    Our defence has been horrible this year, but it’s not as bad as it looks. With Nurse, Larsson, Klef and Sek, we have four good dmen, despite their performance this year. I would stick with that group and add a second pair RHD who can play well in the dzone. If one or two of the top four guys continues to look bad, we have a backup plan. No need for the mythical RHD PP guy.

    If we trade RNH, or a first round pick, or one of our few legit prospects for a Tyson Barrie type we’re taking yet another huge step backwards.

  113. Pescador says:

    OilClog:
    Svechnikov? Why would anyone want to kill that kids career by the Oilers drafting him

    TMac- Sven! You turned the puck over once! Press box for 11 games for you, I’ll play you on that 12th game for 9mins and bitch you aren’t taking advantage of your chances..

    TMac- one day these bastards will stop drafting sideburns

    Boqvist
    Now there is a player the Oilers can destroy easy,
    Here you go hotshot, second pairing comp.
    Don’t worry Russell will show you the ropes.
    Rim it, bank it, reset, cough it, shot block, dump it, change
    Any questions?

  114. JimmyV1965 says:

    VOR:
    Size as a variable for predicting success at the NHL level is a stunning example of how hard it is to overcome cognitive bias. The math is overwhelming – size does not correlate with NHL success regardless of time period, position, or measurement metric.

    Study after study has reached the same conclusion. To date I have built up a database of 18 and I am still looking. I have yet to find any studies arguing for the use of size in drafting strategies for the NHL draft. These studies have looked at survivor bias, available size distributions, and a crap load of other complicating factors.

    Measurement metrics have included games played, TOI, ppg, GvT, and goals. As I said they all reach the same conclusion. I have tried posting some of the studies here. To date I have changed no minds.

    What gets me is that of the scouts and GMs and former scouts and GMs I have interviewed I have found only 8% strongly believe size doesn’t matter. And it is less than that among the media and if it is 1% of hockey fans I’d be amazed. This is why I have spent years trying to prove size does matter, I am a stubborn, contrary SOB who believes in collective wisdom. As a principle I assume the crowd is right – but the math should align at some point.

    My own research suggests bigger is better in the top ten picks, size is not correlated from 11-20, and smaller is better in the next ten picks (21-30), for the thirty picks that follow (31-60) both really big and really small players significantly underperform their average colleagues. I am a complete outlier in finding any size correlation. This is why I haven’t published yet. I am still trying new approaches to the data, still trying to figure out how so many eyeballs can be so wrong.

    That said, from pick 61 to the end of the draft I find the same thing every else does – size doesn’t matter. Well except in the 7th round.

    Right now I am testing a new hypothesis. That while size doesn’t predict success it does predict failure. In simple English I am testing whether small guys who get a chance to play in the NHL fail more frequently than average or above average size players when opportunity is allowed for.

    I started looking at whether “smallness” at time of draft was correlated with never making the NHL at all. And it is. However, two problems. Smaller players are more likely to be drafted in later rounds suggesting a long shot – home run strategy and based on performance in College and the AHL have to do more to get an NHL opportunity than larger players. So when we look at playing in the NHL or games played in the NHL by round rather than by population size mostly doesn’t matter. When we look at points or goals smaller (1SD) below mean is slightly positively correlated with goals and points Pearson r = .113, one SD above is also positively correlated r = .094 in picks above 180 and no other correlations are found. In round 7 look for size outliers.

    I am coming to the conclusion that there are subtle size correlations hiding in the draft. However, because the most obvious is big is better (and remember individuals are never populations) at the very top of the draft we assume the rest of the draft follows the same rule. And it doesn’t.

    But I am sure I have convinced nobody and that no evidence ever would. People who believe size doesn’t matter won’t believe me that it does and in fascinating, subtle, and complex ways. The MOAR bigger or the modern size, skill, and speed crowd see obvious evidence of bigger, bigger, bigger is better wherever they look and won’t believe me when I point out the evidence isn’t at all obvious.

    I am curious if there are any fellow travellers – size is a still poorly understood predictive variable a better understanding of which could lead to arbitrage opportunities – fellow travellers here on LT?

    I’m on board with. I think Stevie Y is too.

  115. Pouzar says:

    Andy Dufresne: When the two players are close in skill set….always take the guy from the OHL or the guy from the Q

    Svechnikov > Zadina

    Unless said Q player is from the Mooseheads.

  116. Andy Dufresne says:

    GMB3: I think it would be classic Chia to draft Brady because he realized he missed on Matt. I’m not sure Brady has the offensive chops his older brother does. Matt just destroyed the OHL and when you look at the math it’s hard to believe he didn’t go before JP or PLD

    Based on the verbal at the time, kind of league wide, it’s not hard at all to beleive JP went before Tkachuk. Oilers fans and management my self included were extatic when we heard the words…”from the Cape Breton Screaming Eagles”……

    But in hind sight I have to agree with you that Tkachuk is the better player, especially when Oilers management were supposedly factoring in “Readiness to make the jump to the NHL”

  117. JimmyV1965 says:

    Georges:
    Here’s another way to explain this season other than because roster:

    – the Oilers are -42 on the PK
    – they’re +18 on the PP

    – this works out to -24 in 55 games, or a .436 goal disadvantage on the special teams per game
    – that would rank our special teams the 28th worst out of 994 teams that have played since 1979-80
    – is our roster the 28th worst of those 994 teams?

    – not a single team with a special team performance that’s worse than ours hit the .500 mark on P%
    – the average P% of the 27 teams that were worse than us was .316

    – being that bad at special teams cannot be overcome
    – special teams are so important that each component has a coach who coaches just that part of the game
    – so I’d say special teams overall is a heavily (and in our case badly) coached part of the game
    – a problem that wasn’t anticipated, isolated, addressed, or fixed

    – here are some of the more recent HC’s who’ve achieved that level of not so special special teams results: Hanlon, Yawney, Nolan, Kitchen, Fraser, Renney
    – is anyone stepping up to laud these no longer coaching gentlemen as experienced, intelligent and successful (as Nicholson introduced McLellan to the town)?

    – if we managed just mediocre special teams (0 goal differential), we’d have an overall goal differential of -4
    – that would put us in the playoff race
    – it’s actually more likely that mediocre special teams, by not sapping our players’ confidence and putting us in bad score situations, would have allowed us to win even more than we have at 5v5
    – which would mean we’d be comfortably in the playoff race

    – how many times does the casual fan have to see an opponent skate clear on Talbot from his glove side while our guys stand in a line in the middle before the fan is allowed to say well I might not be experienced, intelligent, or successful… I don’t have rings I can stuff in my ears… but, hey man, that’s just wrong…

    I agree with what you’re saying here, but have you factored in the 8 PK goals. And what impact does that have?

  118. Pouzar says:

    Pescador: Boqvist
    Now there is a player the Oilers can destroy easy,
    Here you go hotshot, second pairing comp.
    Don’t worry Russell will show you the ropes.
    Rim it, bank it, reset, cough it, shot block, dump it, change
    Any questions?

    TMc @ the podium: “Do you even lift bro?”

  119. Pescador says:

    OriginalPouzar: I don’t think “telegraphing it” has any idea.

    Bob Nicholson stating that they would like to add a top end d-man means nothing in trade negotiations.

    I would think that Sakic (or any GM) would be able to figure out such desire when, you know, Chiarelli is calling them about acquiring such a d-man.

    Matter of perspective,
    You say desire, I say desperate

  120. Andy Dufresne says:

    Pouzar,

    Ya well technically hes not playing for a team in Quebec….Ill give you that…. 😉

  121. Pouzar says:

    Andy Dufresne:
    Pouzar,

    Ya well technically hes not playing for a team in Quebec….Ill give you that….

    ha ha…My Mooseheads are an NHL factory!

  122. Georges says:

    JimmyV1965: I agree with what you’re saying here, but have you factored in the 8 PK goals. And what impact does that have?

    PP

    GF 22
    GA 4
    Net +18

    PK

    GF 8
    GA 50
    Net -42

    Taken together: 18 – 42 = -24.

    So, yes, factored in.

  123. Andy Dufresne says:

    OriginalPouzar: Probably but there is huge risk (1) that would provide us with 5 left shot D making over $4M and (2) OEL only has 2 years left on his deal and can’t be re-signed until July 1 – I would not do the deal until after July 1 and only if OEL is willing to sign a “reasonable” extension.

    We would recoup assets in the corresponding Klefbom trade but, unless that trade brings back a 1/2 RD, we are still left without filling our biggest hole.

    the “handedness” risk is exactly why Im asking the question. IMHO handedness is no where near important enough to choose an inferior player over a suprior all round skill set. Contract aside, I personalyl give up the extra assets required to get OEL over Barrie and dont think twice abnout the handedness in that partiucular deal.

  124. RonnieB says:

    IMHO there is absolutely no way the Oilers are trading major assets for any of OEL. Doughty, or Karlsson at the deadline. All of them are UFA in 2019 and can’t sign an extension until July 1st, 2018; furthermore, there is no reason any of them would not wait until 2019 and leave money on the table when there will be another Cap increase plus 31 teams (32 with Seattle ) competing to hand over the largest contract. Why would anyone even think in terms of trading RNH + Klefbom plus 2018 first for 1 year of their services ?

  125. Pescador says:

    Pouzar: ha ha…My Mooseheads are an NHL factory!

    Also a damn fine beer factory!
    I picked some up this afternoon as a matter of fact.
    ya know, for Valentine’s Day
    Love from me

  126. Andy Dufresne says:

    RonnieB,

    Excellent Point. Thank you for bringing it back around to the “business” of hockey.

    One of the implications of your (strong) logic is that the Nicholson comments are probably not referencing OEL, Doughty, or Karlsson or other similar contracts

  127. pboy says:

    Stauffer is going to be livid when he hears about today’s Oilers Now. They have admitted that assets have been squandered, they have admitted that they didn’t receive equal value in the Hall trade, that Lucic doesn’t have much trade value because of his play and his contract and they agreed with a caller who said Chiarelli has been taken to the wood shed in his big trades. Not toeing the company line at all today.

  128. doritogrande says:

    I am pitching Maroon for Lemieux here with Chevy at the local Starbucks.
    Stay tuned…

    I remain convinced there’s an effective bottom-6 PKer in Marko Dano, though I might be the only one in Winnipeg at this rate.

  129. doritogrande says:

    ha ha…My Mooseheads are an NHL factory!

    He says as Zach Fucale throws an empty lager bottle at his computer screen.

  130. Pouzar says:

    Pescador: Also a damn fine beer factory!
    I picked some up this afternoon as a matter of fact.ya know, for Valentine’s Day
    Love from me

    Good…bring some over for a change!

  131. Jethro Tull says:

    VOR,

    That’s a great post. My personal belief is that there is some sort of meta-filter that is in place from the first time a player ever plays for a team in their childhood. It is so refined by the time the player is draft eligible that it is almost unnoticeable.

    Sometimes, as you research something, specifically something you do hold biases about (basically anything you have any sort of emotion about), you can hit a philosophical wall, so to speak. You may ask, “what exactly was I trying to prove here, anyway?”

    One tool we can use is not to posit, “what would happen if…..?” but to ask “what would happen if not…….?”

    For instance, why does a zebra have stripes? Easy one? Or is it? Camouflage? On their own, it is disruptive, but this is a herd animal and over a thousand of them are noticeable, no matter how stripey they are. Mating? Ok, but why?

    It can be easier to ask what would happen if a zebra didn’t have stripes and work backwards.

    What would happen if size didn’t matter in the NHL? Well, we’ve seen first hand Lucic’s recent performances. He doesn’t get pushed around, but that’s because every dust up is done by the time he gets there. Hockey is a physical game – you are allowed to lean into players in order to get or deny possession. Does anyone doubt what would happen should Kassian or Maroon where to cleanly bodycheck Yamamoto or St. Louis or any other diminutive player?

    But it rarely happens. Why? Because those players have been smaller all their lives, and have adapted – they are hardly caught in those positions. Which leads to the conclusion that size doesn’t matter if the player cannot optimize it, whether they be big or small.

    https://hockey-graphs.com/2015/02/19/nhl-player-size-from-1917-18-to-2014-15-a-brief-look/

    So players have been getting bigger on average. This may be in part to social changes in diet and healthcare as well as meta-screening for a perceived ideal.

    Give it some thought everyone. I just want my hockiers gooder.

  132. jtblack says:

    VOR:
    Size as a variable for predicting success at the NHL level is a stunning example of how hard it is to overcome cognitive bias. The math is overwhelming – size does not correlate with NHL success regardless of time period, position, or measurement metric.

    Study after study has reached the same conclusion. To date I have built up a database of 18 and I am still looking. I have yet to find any studies arguing for the use of size in drafting strategies for the NHL draft. These studies have looked at survivor bias, available size distributions, and a crap load of other complicating factors.

    Measurement metrics have included games played, TOI, ppg, GvT, and goals. As I said they all reach the same conclusion. I have tried posting some of the studies here. To date I have changed no minds.

    What gets me is that of the scouts and GMs and former scouts and GMs I have interviewed I have found only 8% strongly believe size doesn’t matter. And it is less than that among the media and if it is 1% of hockey fans I’d be amazed. This is why I have spent years trying to prove size does matter, I am a stubborn, contrary SOB who believes in collective wisdom. As a principle I assume the crowd is right – but the math should align at some point.

    My own research suggests bigger is better in the top ten picks, size is not correlated from 11-20, and smaller is better in the next ten picks (21-30), for the thirty picks that follow (31-60) both really big and really small players significantly underperform their average colleagues. I am a complete outlier in finding any size correlation. This is why I haven’t published yet. I am still trying new approaches to the data, still trying to figure out how so many eyeballs can be so wrong.

    That said, from pick 61 to the end of the draft I find the same thing every else does – size doesn’t matter. Well except in the 7th round.

    Right now I am testing a new hypothesis. That while size doesn’t predict success it does predict failure. In simple English I am testing whether small guys who get a chance to play in the NHL fail more frequently than average or above average size players when opportunity is allowed for.

    I started looking at whether “smallness” at time of draft was correlated with never making the NHL at all. And it is. However, two problems. Smaller players are more likely to be drafted in later rounds suggesting a long shot – home run strategy and based on performance in College and the AHL have to do more to get an NHL opportunity than larger players. So when we look at playing in the NHL or games played in the NHL by round rather than by population size mostly doesn’t matter. When we look at points or goals smaller (1SD) below mean is slightly positively correlated with goals and points Pearson r = .113, one SD above is also positively correlated r = .094 in picks above 180 and no other correlations are found. In round 7 look for size outliers.

    I am coming to the conclusion that there are subtle size correlations hiding in the draft. However, because the most obvious is big is better (and remember individuals are never populations) at the very top of the draft we assume the rest of the draft follows the same rule. And it doesn’t.

    But I am sure I have convinced nobody and that no evidence ever would. People who believe size doesn’t matter won’t believe me that it does and in fascinating, subtle, and complex ways. The MOAR bigger or the modern size, skill, and speed crowd see obvious evidence of bigger, bigger, bigger is better wherever they look and won’t believe me when I point out the evidence isn’t at all obvious.

    I am curious if there are any fellow travellers – size is a still poorly understood predictive variable a better understanding of which could lead to arbitrage opportunities – fellow travellers here on LT?

    I think Size matters. But I think Size weeds out players at a younger age (Bantam).

    If you look players that leave the game age 12-15, I wouldnguess more are smaller. Ita a violent, physical game. The smaller players that move on the AAA hockey and Junior have so much skill and hickey sense, it is less relevant.

    Being smaller doesnt mean you wont have success; but the same is true of being bigger.

  133. RonnieB says:

    Andy Dufresne,

    Andy Dufresne:
    RonnieB,

    Excellent Point. Thank you for bringing it back around to the “business” of hockey.

    One of the implications of your (strong) logic is that the Nicholson comments are probably not referencing OEL, Doughty, or Karlsson or other similar contracts

    Exactly. I think he’s referring to someone in a somewhat lower tier such as Faulk. 2 years ago it would have taken RNH + to get Faulk. Since then RNH value has increased a bit while Faulk value has declined a little ( until he got a hattrick yesterday he only had 4 goals in 56 games, ) I have seen an article ( the source doesn’t come immediately to mind ) that it might even take Faulk + to get RNH now.
    With Maroon to be gone shortly, the Oilers will have holes on LW as well as RD. Perhaps a multi-player deal to address multiple issues would work. ( Probably have to re-sign Strome at a discount, say 2 x $2 ) to make it work ).
    To Carolina: RNH + one of Bear/Mantha + Brossiot ( Canes have no NHL ready G prospects in the AHL ) and maybe another B prospect.
    To Edmonton: Faulk + Mckeown RD + Foegele LW. Both of those prospects are rated as NHL ready or very close.

    To make it even more fun, the Oilers then trade Caggiula + Benning to Ottawa for Hoffman + Drake Batherson.

  134. stephen sheps says:

    Pouzar: Good…bring some over for a change!

    How’d dry January go for you? I know we’re midway through Feb now, but I haven’t been around much lately. Sorry for not checking sooner!

    I hated it, then learned to embrace it and have been keeping up a controlled, weekends only rate the last little while, but I’m gonna completely destroy my ‘progress’ (which was just a personal choice to cut back) this weekend as I’m off to the UK to see my brother.

    Anybody have recommendations about what to do or where to go on a Friday night in Glasgow? We’re there for 1 night after spending a few days on Islay doing a series of distillery tours…

    If anyone is interested in such things, I’ll do a distillery (and whisky tasting) review similar in style to my music writing and post it here when I get back

  135. Gayfish says:

    jtblack: hickey sense

    My mom had that when I came home from school one day in a very fashionable scarf.

  136. GMB3 says:

    Andy Dufresne: Based on the verbal at the time, kind of league wide, it’s not hard at all to beleive JP went before Tkachuk. Oilers fans and management my self included were extatic when we heard the words…”from the Cape Breton Screaming Eagles”……

    But in hind sight I have to agree with you that Tkachuk is the better player, especially when Oilers management were supposedly factoring in “Readiness to make the jump to the NHL”

    I 100% agree with you. I was driving down the Henday to a buddies for his birthday and he called me with the news while I was on my way over. Many celebratory drinks were had.

    I just meant that if you look back at the math, Tkachuk had a nice track record of producing tons of offense, whereas JP’s offensive ceiling was a bit of a mystery

  137. OriginalPouzar says:

    Andy Dufresne: the “handedness” risk is exactly why Im asking the question. IMHO handedness is no where near important enough to choose an inferior player over a suprior all round skill set. Contract aside, I personalyl give up the extra assets required to get OEL over Barrie and dont think twice abnout the handedness in that partiucular deal.

    I’m not saying its enough to choose an inferior player but it could be enough to not make an overt trade because, at the end of the day, it matters and we have seen it first hand over the last 4 games – the Oilers current ability to transition the puck is among the worst I’ve seen in a decade plus – they are currently awful and its cratering games. The main reason is Russell and Davidson playing their off-sides making them both very poor puck movers. Throw them on their right side and they are better hockey players and better puck movers. No Russell isn’t a great puck mover from the left side but he’s materially better than when he’s on the right side and it makes a difference in the game.

  138. JimmyV1965 says:

    Georges: PP

    GF 22
    GA 4
    Net +18

    PK

    GF 8
    GA 50
    Net -42

    Taken together: 18 – 42 = -24.

    So, yes, factored in.

    👍

  139. NYC-Back-to-Tokyo Oil (Gentleman Backpacker) says:

    Heinen for Maroon? No way!

    Nicholson telegraphing his big game hunting on the blue line is so reminiscent of MacTambeLowe’s Heatley expedition.

    The more things are different the more they stay the same. Spend 5 major assets on OEL and then put him on right D then act shocked when he sucks at it.

  140. Doug McLachlan says:

    GMB3: I 100% agree with you. I was driving down the Henday to a buddies for his birthday and he called me with the news while I was on my way over. Many celebratory drinks were had.

    I just meant that if you look back at the math, Tkachuk had a nice track record of producing tons of offense, whereas JP’s offensive ceiling was a bit of a mystery

    IIRC the perceived issue with Tkachuk was not his hands nor his “grittitude” but rather his foot speed.

    I am still pleased we got JP and suspect that he has levels to his game that we will see in the years to come. Know hope people.

    Frequent Flames troll/occasional poster in these parts, Cameron, was pretty upset when the Oilers got Puljujarvi (moreso as the Flames had a deal to move up and get him that didn’t materialize).

  141. Death By Misadventure says:

    Unless the Oilers are picking top 3 and therefore have Dahlin, Svech or Zadina in the bag, for the love of God, please draft a RHD. By most lists, there are 7 in the first round. Please grab one. And get it right. Is that too much to ask?

    If Chia has done anything, it’s establish the value of RHD as worth their weight in gold.

    Better yet, hope that Addison or Wilde slide a bit and also grab one of those with the high second round pick as well.

    Two RHD with the first two picks is a win on draft day. After that, the God’s decide.

  142. NYC-Back-to-Tokyo Oil (Gentleman Backpacker) says:

    Georges,

    Good comments on your concerns with Nicholson. I tend to agree. Coaching, ya, TMac has lost the room and the special teams coaches have to go.

    Oilers’ management has far too many cooks in the kitchen. Kinger nailed it. Bush League.

    Note to Katz: you want to give all your heroes a job let them do community and marketing work. Being a good player does not make you good hockey ops manager. Have you really not learned from Lowe?

    What I would give for Nicholson, Lowe, Howson, MacT out and one Shero or Lamoriello in.
    Coffey, Moose and Wayne can do PR work.

    Green and Keith G. I leave up to the GM to decide.

  143. Death By Misadventure says:

    Gotta be honest LT, I’m not a fan of your mock. Adding to the leftorium is a non-starter. If that’s what the Oilers leave with, I don’t think it’s a draft built for long term success. BPA and all that, but a Ty Smith type pick just means a Nurse or Klefbom is gone in a few years and the youth process starts again.

    To me Nurse and Klef are the LHD to be built around. Here and now.

    Use the draft to fill other holes.

  144. Death By Misadventure says:

    OriginalPouzar,

    +1

    I’ve been reading your musings on the RHD the last few weeks and I share the sentiment. This is the year to stock up on the position.

  145. maudite says:

    VOR,

    I’m not suprised about the pocket of value on small players exists, later in first round.

    I think small with the speed and hockey sense displayed gets undervalued too much.

    A different criteria that I think would be more important is skating ability. Especially so in the last decade. If a guy has questionable skating I would pass on drafting them until 3rd round at best. I think a great deal of first round flops are guys that had average or worse skating more then any other factor.

  146. Death By Misadventure says:

    Pouzar:
    Oh and Adam Boqvist please. Pretty please.

    If the Oilers are picking 4 or lower, yes please. One of the youngest players in the draft. Huge ceiling. RHD. That’s a lot of boxes ticked if the dice break right.

  147. dustrock says:

    Heinen and Krug for Klefbom and Maroon. Something like that.

  148. Death By Misadventure says:

    JimmyV1965:
    I’m with VOR on this. Unless we finish in the top four, I think we should trade down.

    That’s actually been my take away from LT posting his old draft lists. The draft is such a low percentage crapshoot after the first 5 picks, it seems the best bet is to trade down and get more picks if possible. If for some reason Oilers are drafting 12 or so and the higher end RHD are gone, just trade it for and actual NHL player.

  149. Surrey Oiler says:

    dustrock:
    Heinen and Krug for Klefbom and Maroon.Something like that.

    Absolutely no way Boston does that…Chiarelli isn’t their GM anymore

  150. Death By Misadventure says:

    Bag of Pucks: I think an argument can be made that you’ve already got that player in the system with Ethan Bear, so I’m not sure that RHD is the pressing need pick.

    I get the point you are making, but I prefer to hedge my bets and assume that 1 out of every 3 high end prospects will actually contribute at the NHL level. Therefore if the Oilers are betting their RHD future on Bear and nothing else, that is just stupid.

  151. GMB3 says:

    Doug McLachlan: IIRC the perceived issue with Tkachuk was not his hands nor his “grittitude” but rather his foot speed.

    I am still pleased we got JP and suspect that he has levels to his game that we will see in the years to come.Know hope people.

    Frequent Flames troll/occasional poster in these parts, Cameron, was pretty upset when the Oilers got Puljujarvi (moreso as the Flames had a deal to move up and get him that didn’t materialize).

    Yet he seems to skate fine by my eye, so I’m not sure where those concerns came from. I agree about JP, and it’s far too early to say who will have the better career, but early returns lean towards the cocky kid in Calgary

  152. NYC-Back-to-Tokyo Oil (Gentleman Backpacker) says:

    Surrey Oiler: Absolutely no way Boston does that…Chiarelli isn’t their GM anymore

    Correct answer

    Krug worth more than Klef, unfortunately at this time
    Heinen worth far more than Maroon.

  153. NYC-Back-to-Tokyo Oil (Gentleman Backpacker) says:

    Wouldn’t fret Tkachuk yet. He was always the higher floor prospect. If his offense did not pan out he would be an effective agitator on a 3rd line. Puljujarvi has a higher ceiling but if the offense does not come he brings less than Tkachuk.

    Patience, I think. Risto was way ahead of Nurse until this year. Now it’s close and maybe Nurse pulls ahead.

  154. Nix says:

    Andy Dufresne: Based on the Stauffer verbal….which Bostonforward on an ELC would he be talking about?

    Forsbacka-Karlsson? Righty swede projected as their future 3C.. Good college production and on the cusp of turning pro. I’d be over the moon if we got that for Maroon who is gone anyway.

  155. Kinger_Oil.redux says:

    Georges,

    – Again good stuff Georges: those articles are consistent with my impression and recollection: Coach wasn’t GM’s hire

    – So it’s problematic and consistent with the OBC meddling: Chia hasn’t had full reign. MSM has done a good job of throwing Chia under the bus, because they are being fed by OBC.

    – Normal playbook of GM’ing is GM inherits incumbent coach. GM either fires coach right away, or after “evaluation”. GM brings in “his guy”. If GM has game, then maybe he gets to fire that coach, then hire another coach. Then GM gets fired. Vicious circle of pro-sport. Hopefully there are Cups during this cycle

    – I’d be inclined to give coach the chance to re-tool (but he’s only got 25 games next year) while the GM re-tools the roster in off-season

    – It’s hard to guess what happens: If GM gets fired and Coach stays this summer: we know Georges is right, and Chia was never in charge…And that folks is a real gong-show problem that will be exposed

  156. dustrock says:

    Surrey Oiler: Absolutely no way Boston does that…Chiarelli isn’t their GM anymore

    But some of the same minds are still there, no?

  157. Georges says:

    VOR,

    “The math is overwhelming – size does not correlate with NHL success regardless of time period, position, or measurement metric.”

    Imagine a league in which a positive linear correlation existed between size (as measured by height) and a performance metric that was important to winning games.

    In this imaginary league, size could be used to reliably predict performance.

    So, as an example, players who are 6’1″ are, as a group, better on the performance metric than players who are 6’0″. Teams would then rationally prefer 6’1″ players over 6’0″ players, all things considered. The development systems would pick up on that and, soon enough, we’d have relatively more 6’1″ players in the league. The 6’0″ players who perform poorly on that metric would be weeded out. The 6’0″ players who remain would be the ones who are at the same level on the metric to the more numerous 6’1″ players. This would presumably be the better 6’0″ players.

    As long as a positive linear correlation exists between size and performance, teams would be incentivized to get bigger because they would simultaneously be getting better. Holding all other factors constant.

    Eventually, because of physical limitations, bigger stops being better and the league reaches an equilibrium where size cannot reliably predict performance.

    Recently, the league has been moving the other direction size-wise (or at least weight-wise) since the cancelled season. It’s been getting lighter as Jethro’s link (and the stuff I’ve posted recently) shows. Players and teams have been shedding weight because, I think, the violence and physical risks of the prior era have been removed from the game. They needed the extra weight as insurance before but not as much anymore. So the league is searching for a new equilibrium on weight. I’ve talked about how weight is a proxy for speed.

    (Not sure if there’s a similar movement on height, however. But, because height and weight are correlated in the general population, one would think yes. I’ll have a look.)

  158. Nix says:

    godot10: You can’t add a more dynamic element to the defense if the breakout system is designed to stifle dynamism.

    Pittsburgh was/is dynamic with a bunch of nobodies on the blueline.

    The problem isn’t the defensemen (apart from Russell).The problem is the breakout system, and the slow boots of many of the Chiarelli’s heavy forwards.

    The only thing dynamic about the Oilers is when McDavid and Nurse break out of the system and do their own thing.

    By changing the coach one can add 5 dynamic defensemen.

    This is so chock full of truth it hurts.

  159. Nix says:

    OilClog:
    Mind you with this coach Erik, Connor and Leon would never be on the ice together. Coach loves his forth line rolling with his top pair and Mcdavid and Leon stuck with fucking no pass Russell.

    This coach and his damn tired ways

    By eye, Russell is damn near always on the ice when McDavid is and it’s sad as hell. WHYYYY TODD?? It’s like Irresistable offensive force cancelled by immovable black hole of possession object.

  160. GMB3 says:

    Kinger_Oil.redux,

    I’m curious if you still honestly think Chia should remain as the General Manager of this team after this season?

  161. Jethro Tull says:

    Georges:
    VOR,

    “The math is overwhelming – size does not correlate with NHL success regardless of time period, position, or measurement metric.”

    Imagine a league in which a positive linear correlation existed between size (as measured by height) and a performance metric that was important to winning games.

    In this imaginary league, size could be used to reliably predict performance.

    So, as an example, players who are 6’1″ are, as a group, better on the performance metric than players who are 6’0″. Teams would then rationally prefer 6’1″ players over 6’0″ players, all things considered. The development systems would pick up on that and, soon enough, we’d have relatively more 6’1″ players in the league. The 6’0″ players who perform poorly on that metric would be weeded out. The 6’0″ players who remain would be the ones who are at the same level on the metric to the more numerous 6’1″ players. This would presumably be the better 6’0″ players.

    As long as a positive linear correlation exists between size and performance, teams would be incentivized to get bigger because they would simultaneously be getting better. Holding all other factors constant.

    Eventually, because of physical limitations, bigger stops being better and the league reaches an equilibrium where size cannot reliably predict performance.

    Recently, the league has been moving the other direction size-wise (or at least weight-wise) since the cancelled season. It’s been getting lighter as Jethro’s link (and the stuff I’ve posted recently) shows. Players and teams have been shedding weight because, I think, the violence and physical risks of the prior era have been removed from the game. They needed the extra weight as insurance before but not as much anymore. So the league is searching for a new equilibrium on weight. I’ve talked about how weight is a proxy for speed.

    (Not sure if there’s a similar movement on height, however. But, because height and weight are correlated in the general population, one would think yes. I’ll have a look.)

    Nice post that explains my unconscious/institutionalized filtering from an early age.

    But it is a little like an open loop process, and with all processes, we can assign control parameters – such as PID.

    P or Proportional would give you the gain you need to offset the difference in skill – but that offset will always be there.

    I or Integral will drive the desired outcome to eliminate offset over time, so know you have what you wanted.

    D or Derivative will give you a knee jerk output – like a panic trade, but shouldn’t be used on slow acting processes.

    The main problem is that league development is open loop – the end result is always changing, so by the time you have implemented a control plan and reached your target, it has changed colour, shape, dimension, it’s address and phone number without telling you. You just have to be smart enough to know…..

  162. Georges says:

    Georges:
    VOR,

    “The math is overwhelming – size does not correlate with NHL success regardless of time period, position, or measurement metric.”

    Imagine a league in which a positive linear correlation existed between size (as measured by height) and a performance metric that was important to winning games.

    In this imaginary league, size could be used to reliably predict performance.

    So, as an example, players who are 6’1″ are, as a group, better on the performance metric than players who are 6’0″. Teams would then rationally prefer 6’1″ players over 6’0″ players, all things considered. The development systems would pick up on that and, soon enough, we’d have relatively more 6’1″ players in the league. The 6’0″ players who perform poorly on that metric would be weeded out. The 6’0″ players who remain would be the ones who are at the same level on the metric to the more numerous 6’1″ players. This would presumably be the better 6’0″ players.

    As long as a positive linear correlation exists between size and performance, teams would be incentivized to get bigger because they would simultaneously be getting better. Holding all other factors constant.

    Eventually, because of physical limitations, bigger stops being better and the league reaches an equilibrium where size cannot reliably predict performance.

    Recently, the league has been moving the other direction size-wise (or at least weight-wise) since the cancelled season. It’s been getting lighter as Jethro’s link (and the stuff I’ve posted recently) shows. Players and teams have been shedding weight because, I think, the violence and physical risks of the prior era have been removed from the game. They needed the extra weight as insurance before but not as much anymore. So the league is searching for a new equilibrium on weight. I’ve talked about how weight is a proxy for speed.

    (Not sure if there’s a similar movement on height, however. But, because height and weight are correlated in the general population, one would think yes. I’ll have a look.)

    So, here’s the trend since the cancelled season on average height and weight for skaters who make the NHL.

    Draft Year, Height (inches), Weight (lbs)

    05, 73.2, 202
    06, 73.0, 204
    07, 73.3, 201
    08, 73.1, 200
    09, 73.2, 201
    10, 73.2, 201
    11, 73.1, 200
    12, 73.1, 199
    13, 73.7, 204 (more defensemen?)
    14, 72.8, 196
    15, 73.2, 196
    16, 73.1, 196
    17, 72.5, 179 (Yamamoto!)

    So height has been kinda holding steady and weight has recently taken a turn.

    Will the 2017 class really be that small by the time the majority make their appearance in the league?

  163. Gayfish says:

    Georges:
    VOR,

    “The math is overwhelming – size does not correlate with NHL success regardless of time period, position, or measurement metric.”

    Imagine a league in which a positive linear correlation existed between size (as measured by height) and a performance metric that was important to winning games.

    In this imaginary league, size could be used to reliably predict performance.

    So, as an example, players who are 6’1″ are, as a group, better on the performance metric than players who are 6’0″. Teams would then rationally prefer 6’1″ players over 6’0″ players, all things considered. The development systems would pick up on that and, soon enough, we’d have relatively more 6’1″ players in the league. The 6’0″ players who perform poorly on that metric would be weeded out. The 6’0″ players who remain would be the ones who are at the same level on the metric to the more numerous 6’1″ players. This would presumably be the better 6’0″ players.

    As long as a positive linear correlation exists between size and performance, teams would be incentivized to get bigger because they would simultaneously be getting better. Holding all other factors constant.

    Eventually, because of physical limitations, bigger stops being better and the league reaches an equilibrium where size cannot reliably predict performance.

    Recently, the league has been moving the other direction size-wise (or at least weight-wise) since the cancelled season. It’s been getting lighter as Jethro’s link (and the stuff I’ve posted recently) shows. Players and teams have been shedding weight because, I think, the violence and physical risks of the prior era have been removed from the game. They needed the extra weight as insurance before but not as much anymore. So the league is searching for a new equilibrium on weight. I’ve talked about how weight is a proxy for speed.

    (Not sure if there’s a similar movement on height, however. But, because height and weight are correlated in the general population, one would think yes. I’ll have a look.)

    That’s it in a nutshell. Size is a factor, just not one we can effectively quantify as of now due to a biased sample.

  164. Kinger_Oil.redux says:

    GMB3:
    Kinger_Oil.redux,

    I’m curious if you still honestly think Chia should remain as the General Manager of this team after this season?

    – I honestly don’t care. The business side of my and continuity says the best thing to do is re-tool.

    – If last year was a mirage, and this team was last year minus Ebs + Strome is really what we are for sure fire him. I’m just more in the camp of bad luck, regression, some incredible bad goalering and PP and PK. You could blow it up and start again: I don’t really care other than to win Cups

    – They will be a lot better next year regardless: so attribute last year to luck, and this year to bad GM’ing: pick your poison

    – I think there is a lot to point to to suggest this year was an anomoly: they were by most of us and most pundits Cup Contenders. So what I think matters little.

  165. jtblack says:

    Nix: This is so chock full of truth it hurts.

    Pitt was wallowing along in 2016; when they made a coaching change. The new coach implemented a new system that fabored possession and pace. He brought in young guys …. and Pitt has never looked back.

    Call it cherry picking or whatever, but it happened and it shows how Important it is for a coach to implement the proper system and one that gives HIS players the best chance to succeed.

    The Hawks turfed Savard, and brought in Quenville. 3 Cups later.

    The Oilers have good pieces but I dont think they are being utilized properly. IMHO

  166. jtblack says:

    Georges: So, here’s the trend since the cancelled season on average height and weight for skaters who make the NHL.

    Draft Year, Height (inches), Weight (lbs)

    05, 73.2, 202
    06, 73.0, 204
    07, 73.3, 201
    08, 73.1, 200
    09, 73.2, 201
    10, 73.2, 201
    11, 73.1, 200
    12, 73.1, 199
    13, 73.7, 204 (more defensemen?)
    14, 72.8, 196
    15, 73.2, 196
    16, 73.1, 196
    17, 72.5, 179 (Yamamoto!)

    So height has been kinda holding steady and weight has recently taken a turn.

    Will the 2017 class really be that small by the time the majority make their appearance in the league?

    This is great stuff. I believe the reduction in Fighting, will also lead to a progression of smaller players making it more regulairy (prob already started).

    In the “old days”, players needed body guards (ie:Semenko). But now there is hardly any fighting in the game now. My point is; when fighting was a bigger factor, it generally favored bigger players, hence more bigger players ended up making it.

  167. Decidedly Skeptical Fan says:

    Nix,

    godot10: You can’t add a more dynamic element to the defense if the breakout system is designed to stifle dynamism.

    Pittsburgh was/is dynamic with a bunch of nobodies on the blueline.

    The problem isn’t the defensemen (apart from Russell).The problem is the breakout system, and the slow boots of many of the Chiarelli’s heavy forwards.

    The only thing dynamic about the Oilers is when McDavid and Nurse break out of the system and do their own thing.

    By changing the coach one can add 5 dynamic defensemen.

    This is so chock full of truth it hurts.

    This is the way I see it as well. I guess we all need OP’s alternate explanation for the 7th time. OP, how did that go again?

  168. Decidedly Skeptical Fan says:

    jtblack: Pitt was wallowing along in 2016; when they made a coaching change. The new coach implemented a new system that fabored possession and pace.He brought in young guys ….and Pitt has never looked back.

    Call it cherry picking or whatever, but it happened and it shows how Important it is for a coach to implement the proper system and one that gives HIS players the best chance to succeed.

    The Hawks turfed Savard, and brought in Quenville.3 Cups later.

    The Oilers have good pieces but I dont think they are being utilized properly. IMHO

    Yup.

  169. Georges says:

    VOR,

    “Right now I am testing a new hypothesis. That while size doesn’t predict success it does predict failure. In simple English I am testing whether small guys who get a chance to play in the NHL fail more frequently than average or above average size players when opportunity is allowed for.”

    This is a better approach than looking for correlations.

    Divide the population of players who make it to the NHL into two sub-populations: small guys and other guys. Define a criteria for success (e.g., played at least 100 games). Determine the proportion of each sub-population that met the criteria for success. Calculate the test statistic to see if the size of the difference between these two proportions could have arisen by chance when sampling from a single population (i.e., assume there is no difference between the success of small players vs. other players and see if the observed difference falls inside or outside the acceptance region).

    I did this for forwards who were drafted between 2005 and 2012 and have played at least one game in the NHL.

    Looking at the height distribution, I used 5’10” as the cutoff for defining small.

    And I used played at least 100 games as the cutoff for success.

    There were 67 small players in the data. 33 played 100 games or more. (49%)

    There were 422 other players in the data. 270 played 100 games or more. (64%)

    Based on this, it seems there is a statistically significant difference between the success rate of small forwards and other forwards, which suggests size matters.

    But, as you pointed out, size seems to be confounded with draft position: smaller players are drafted later. Being drafted later decreases the probability of reaching the success threshold.

    I’ll run a logistic regression to see if the relationship between size and success is significant when controlling for draft position. I’ll let you know.

  170. Gerta Rauss says:

    stephen sheps: Anybody have recommendations about what to do or where to go on a Friday night in Glasgow? We’re there for 1 night after spending a few days on Islay doing a series of distillery tours…

    I was in Glasgow for 2 nights in May of ’14 (post golf trip to Dornoch and St Andrews)

    We took the train/subway downtown and walked around on a beautiful sunny Saturday
    -Indian food for dinner
    -wound up in several bars in one of the districts (Merchant city..?)..one of the pubs was an old church..I can’t remember specifics as the alcohol had taken affect by that point

    I really enjoyed Glasgow with what little time I spent there

    I’d recommend a day trip and play Turnberry but I’m not sure where golf is on your priority list..:)

  171. OriginalPouzar says:

    A decent amount of prospects in action this evening to keep track of:

    Safin, Hebig, Skinner, Benson, Yamamoto and the Condors.

    Really would like to find out what’s ailing Caleb Jones. He’s missed at least 5-6 games now and won’t be in the lineup tonight and I cant find an iota of information.

  172. OilClog says:

    at the end of the Mcdavid ELC the team is less then what it was, has been let down behind the bench in truly unfathomable ways, while their rocket launchers have been replaced by a straw and a couple boxes of pink and blue nerds.

    I don’t care who you are, you’re fucking fire. Coaches, GM, internet provider, ping pong table, you’re all fucking out. Take your shit systems, your brain dead out of touch roster management and go suffer a long meal on Tambi’s farm.

    You have possibly the next face on Gords of Hockey profile and you fucking turn it into this damn hot garbage of a disaster where Don are my pants on backwards Cherry calling you out.

    Coach is calling out one of the best contracts on the team while his name is in the rumour mill, and this is after this brilliant smack of a coach is icing Mark I can’t breathe, skate, move Letestu and Mike Over the hilll is my forehead Cammalleri on the damn PK.

    Eakins probably had some damn chicken blood burn a bike ritual on some sunny San Diego hill.

  173. godot10 says:

    One wonders if Jacques Martin wants another shot as the head guy. Bring in Jacques Martin and Perry Pearn next year.

    I’d like Todd Nelson also, but I doubt that he would ever consider Edmonton again.

  174. OriginalPouzar says:

    Safin has taken 5 faceoffs through the first 15 minutes of play – so I guess after switching back to his natural position of right wing for two games and getting 7 points, they need to challenge him again at center? Sigh!

  175. Pouzar says:

    stephen sheps: How’d dry January go for you? I know we’re midway through Feb now, but I haven’t been around much lately. Sorry for not checking sooner!

    I hated it, then learned to embrace it and have been keeping up a controlled, weekends only rate the last little while, but I’m gonna completely destroy my ‘progress’ (which was just a personal choice to cut back) this weekend as I’m off to the UK to see my brother.

    Anybody have recommendations about what to do or where to go on a Friday night in Glasgow? We’re there for 1 night after spending a few days on Islay doing a series of distillery tours…

    If anyone is interested in such things, I’ll do a distillery (and whisky tasting) review similar in style to my music writing and post it here when I get back

    Hey Stephen…hope things are well…thx for asking!

    Time to fess up….I relapsed mid way thru January. My reasoning was that since I quit “school night” drinkin since Oct that “Sober January” was overkill. Glad to say I am still still sober from Mon-Fri!!!

    Wish I could offer up suggestions for ya…have a great time and remember vacations are open season! Drink and be merry!

  176. VOR says:

    Georges:
    VOR,

    “Right now I am testing a new hypothesis. That while size doesn’t predict success it does predict failure. In simple English I am testing whether small guys who get a chance to play in the NHL fail more frequently than average or above average size players when opportunity is allowed for.”

    This is a better approach than looking for correlations.

    Divide the population of players who make it to the NHL into two sub-populations: small guys and other guys. Define a criteria for success (e.g., played at least 100 games). Determine the proportion of each sub-population that met the criteria for success. Calculate the test statistic to see if the size of the difference between these two proportions could have arisen by chance when sampling from a single population (i.e., assume there is no difference between the success of small players vs. other players and see if the observed difference falls inside or outside the acceptance region).

    I did this for forwards who were drafted between 2005 and 2012 and have played at least one game in the NHL.

    Looking at the height distribution, I used 5’10” as the cutoff for defining small.

    And I used played at least 100 games as the cutoff for success.

    There were 67 small players in the data. 33 played 100 games or more. (49%)

    There were 422 other players in the data. 270 played 100 games or more. (64%)

    Based on this, it seems there is a statistically significant difference between the success rate of small forwards and other forwards, which suggests size matters.

    But, as you pointed out, size seems to be confounded with draft position: smaller players are drafted later. Being drafted later decreases the probability of reaching the success threshold.

    I’ll run a logistic regression to see if the relationship between size and success is significant when controlling for draft position. I’ll let you know.

    The thing is you don’t just have to control for draft position bias but the increased bias that smaller players confront. So let’s say an average 7th round draft choice gets x number of games audition in the NHL per y number of points in the AHL, how many does you sub population of short players get for the same number of points. The difference in your two populations may be the consequence of bias in drafting and bias in development combining to limit opportunity and thus proof of the bias not of intrinsic differences in likelihood of success. Without a way of eliminating bias as a confounding factor we could end up saying we shouldn’t draft shorter players because other GMs are biased against them. Which is the opposite of exploiting an arbitrage opportunity.

    https://hockey-graphs.com/author/casualobsessions/

    I also thought you and others here might find these five posts by the brilliant, funny, and snarky Carolyn Wilke funny and informative.

    The oldest of these posts argues against the importance of coaching in determining team success. The last three, written before this year began rank the 31 GMs in the league. I won’t spoil the surprise but let’s say the Oilers may reflect their GM quite closely.

  177. NYC-Back-to-Tokyo Oil (Gentleman Backpacker) says:

    Isles fans have launched and paid a GoFundMe for a ‘Snow Must Go’ Billboard.

    The Isles have skilled forwards but terrible D and goaltenders. Bucky and Dougie behind the bench.

    And here I thought the Reinhart, Hamonic and Eberle deals had saved his job.

    If Snow must Go, what about Chia, who got fleeced by him, twice?

    What must he do? Oh, Nicholson is speaking in his place now. Never mind.

  178. geowal says:

    Gerta Rauss: I was in Glasgow for 2 nights in May of ’14 (post golf trip to Dornoch and St Andrews)

    We took the train/subway downtown and walked around on a beautiful sunny Saturday
    -Indian food for dinner
    -wound up in several bars in one of the districts (Merchant city..?)..one of the pubs was an old church..I can’t remember specifics as the alcohol had taken affect by that point

    I really enjoyed Glasgow with what little time I spent there

    I’drecommend a day trip and play Turnberry but I’m not sure where golf is on your priority list..:)

    Stephen: at some point (any point) in the night consider “the pot still”, downtown on Hope street. Wonderful little hole in the wall bar with an astounding whiskey offering, friendly and knowledgeable staff to help you find something good at any price range, and a generally slightly older crowd. Besides that there’s lots of bars you can crawl from and to, but it was my favourite. I also recall horshoe bar and Ross’ being good. This may sound obvious but don’t check out “the raven” BBQ restaurant…I had just arrived and was starving so took the first place I saw.
    For daylight the Necropolis offers nice views of the city and is free. I don’t especially recommend going out of your way to see the river. The cathedral is the best cultural option if you have time/interest.

  179. geowal says:

    stephen sheps,

    Inadvertently replied to Gerta instead of you, see above.

  180. Sighduck says:

    If Nylander in TOR was to sign for 7m x 8 years how would everyone here view that vs the Drai deal?

  181. godot10 says:

    I don’t think one should make too much of the Nicholson interview with Bob McCown. Nicholson has friends in the Toronto media from his day at Hockey Canada, and he is just maintaining relationships. McCown is one of those Toronto media friends. He has to go on and say something. He has to make it sound like it isn’t a complete tire fire in Edmonton.

    https://media.giphy.com/media/13d2jHlSlxklVe/giphy.gif

  182. stephen sheps says:

    Gerta Rauss: I really enjoyed Glasgow with what little time I spent there

    I’d recommend a day trip and play Turnberry but I’m not sure where golf is on your priority list..:)

    Unfortunately golf time isn’t available, but if there was more time that would be amazing – even in winter! We get in from Islay around 5PM and fly back to London at 10 the next morning. Sheps the younger and I were in Glasgow together for a few days 7 years ago, but I figured it’d be worth it to crowdsource some good spots, knowing how well travelled and helpful this lot tends to be. It is indeed a wonderful city. Stoked to get back, even if it’s only for a minute.

    Pouzar,

    For the most part I’ve also been pretty good about taking it easy during the work week – also school nights of course, but from the other side of the desk – but good on you for making the choice to cut back.

    All’s well on my end, too! And thank you for asking.

    I am unbelievably excited for this trip. As much fun as the 3 days of drunk with my brother will be, I am really stoked to learn more about the scotch making process. Somehow my brother managed to befriend the master distiller at Ardbeg, and apparently he’s taking us on a personal tour of the entire facility and into the warehouses and store rooms.

    VOR,
    Georges,

    great dialogue here, guys. I’ve kinda checked out on the season (and the draft to be honest), but the depth of this analysis keeps me just interested enough…

  183. Pouzar says:

    VOR and Georges are killin it.

    But when/if they come to a conclusion I will need the Coles Notes in Crayon version!

  184. stephen sheps says:

    geowal: Stephen: at some point (any point) in the night consider “the pot still”, downtown on Hope street. Wonderful little hole in the wall bar with an astounding whiskey offering, friendly and knowledgeable staff to help you find something good at any price range, and a generally slightly older crowd. Besides that there’s lots of bars you can crawl from and to, but it was my favourite. I also recall horshoe bar and Ross’ being good. This may sound obvious but don’t check out “the raven” BBQ restaurant…I had just arrived and was starving so took the first place I saw.
    For daylight the Necropolis offers nice views of the city and is free. I don’t especially recommend going out of your way to see the river. The cathedral is the best cultural option if you have time/interest.

    This is great stuff! Thanks for the suggestions. The Pot Still sounds ideal, actually.

    The last time we were there, since we had a few days to explore we went to the Cathedral as well as the Kelvingrove Museum and the Tenement House, as well as discovered what has since become my favourite record store of all time – monorail records, which is a combined record shop, local art gallery and coffee house.

  185. godot10 says:

    The Toronto media is now just taunting us poor folk in Edmonton…

    https://www.tsn.ca/nhl/video/statscentre-hall-s-case-for-the-hart-trophy~1326371

  186. geowal says:

    stephen sheps,

    Ardbeg is a nice one. Springbank in Campbeltown was my favourite, but would need time to continue past the ferry to islay a couple hours. If you go to Laphroiag don’t forget your little slip if you’ve bought a bottle (your “deed” for the piece of peat, you’ll get a free sample in addition to any tour samples you take.
    Enjoy!

  187. GMB3 says:

    jtblack: Pitt was wallowing along in 2016; when they made a coaching change. The new coach implemented a new system that fabored possession and pace.He brought in young guys ….and Pitt has never looked back.

    Call it cherry picking or whatever, but it happened and it shows how Important it is for a coach to implement the proper system and one that gives HIS players the best chance to succeed.

    The Hawks turfed Savard, and brought in Quenville.3 Cups later.

    The Oilers have good pieces but I dont think they are being utilized properly. IMHO

    Agreed and I felt this way a bit last year too.

  188. godot10 says:

    godot10:
    The Toronto media is now just taunting us poor folk in Edmonton…

    https://www.tsn.ca/nhl/video/statscentre-hall-s-case-for-the-hart-trophy~1326371

    Hey Pete. Todd here. You know, I really don’t need Hall. I’d rather have a defensemen than him.

  189. Georges says:

    VOR: The thing is you don’t just have to control for draft position bias but the increased bias that smaller players confront. So let’s say an average 7th round draft choice gets x number of games audition in the NHL per y number of points in the AHL, how many does you sub population of short players get for the same number of points. The difference in your two populations may be the consequence of bias in drafting and bias in development combining to limit opportunity and thus proof of the bias not of intrinsic differences in likelihood of success. Without a way of eliminating bias as a confounding factor we could end up saying we shouldn’t draft shorter players because other GMs are biased against them. Which is the opposite of exploiting an arbitrage opportunity.

    https://hockey-graphs.com/author/casualobsessions/

    I also thought you and others here might find these five posts by the brilliant, funny, and snarky Carolyn Wilke funny and informative.

    The oldest of these posts argues against the importance of coaching in determining team success. The last three, written before this year began rank the 31 GMs in the league. I won’t spoil the surprise but let’s say the Oilers may reflect their GM quite closely.

    I, unfortunately, don’t have AHL or minor league scoring data. The regression should tell me whether HEIGHT adds anything to the model once DRAFT_POSITION is accounted for. If it turns out that HEIGHT provides additional information, all it means is that smaller players are more likely to fail, even if you control for draft position. You’re right that it doesn’t tell us if there are other factors, like systemic bias, that are also at work. But I wouldn’t say anything about that without additionally controlling for pre-NHL and NHL performance. And I don’t have all the data to do that.

    I’m not sure the oldest of Caroline’s posts is arguing against the importance of coaching. Also not sure about evaluating the importance of coaching and GM’ing by testing their impact on fancy stats which themselves have a weak correlation to winning. But, because I think you like this community of hockey graph writers, I’ll mind my own business.

    So sad about the GM ranking. Maybe if PC can find an ownership group that will let him stay on the job for 20 years before he delivers the team’s first SCF appearance, he can get to the top of her list in 2038. (Gentle humor…)

  190. OriginalPouzar says:

    Safin scores.

  191. OriginalPouzar says:

    Sighduck:
    If Nylander in TOR was to sign for 7m x 8 years how would everyone here view that vs the Drai deal?

    Pretty darn good considering he’s a 60-65 point forward and I don’t think he projects to the be the beast that Leon is becoming.

    Don’t imagine he gets that much though.

  192. OriginalPouzar says:

    Cameron Hebig scores.

  193. Bulging Twine says:

    Are there tiers in this draft? Is there a drop off? Like a top 5, top 7, something like that?

  194. Gayfish says:

    VOR: The thing is you don’t just have to control for draft position bias but the increased bias that smaller players confront. So let’s say an average 7th round draft choice gets x number of games audition in the NHL per y number of points in the AHL, how many does you sub population of short players get for the same number of points. The difference in your two populations may be the consequence of bias in drafting and bias in development combining to limit opportunity and thus proof of the bias not of intrinsic differences in likelihood of success. Without a way of eliminating bias as a confounding factor we could end up saying we shouldn’t draft shorter players because other GMs are biased against them. Which is the opposite of exploiting an arbitrage opportunity.

    https://hockey-graphs.com/author/casualobsessions/

    I also thought you and others here might find these five posts by the brilliant, funny, and snarky Carolyn Wilke funny and informative.

    The oldest of these posts argues against the importance of coaching in determining team success. The last three, written before this year began rank the 31 GMs in the league. I won’t spoil the surprise but let’s say the Oilers may reflect their GM quite closely.

    I can get behind this, but the only way you could control for a bias like that would be having accurate per60 numbers along the development path. Simply saying a bias exists doesn’t mean you get to hand waive a potential variable. I would argue this is a known unknown, that GMs have treated unknown known.

  195. Bling says:

    Following the Oilers is becoming an exercise in exasperation.

    It’s getting to the point now where we are cheering for management to not make a stupid move.

    The hemorrhage of talent has been real and it has been spectacular. What is absolutely mind-numbing is that the higher ups seemingly lack the humility and/or intelligence to learn from past mistakes. Chiarelli is making the same mistakes two and three and four times across two franchises!

    Reading the Nicholson quote and then learning that RNH/Klef are apparently on the market while negotiations are ongoing with Maroon is just devastatingly stupid. Also, WHY ARE THEY LOOKING FOR A RIGHT HANDED D-MAN!?!?! GUYS, THAT IS NOT THE PROBLEM RIGHT NOW!!!

    Enough. If there is anyone in this org with an ounce of clarity — whether it is the owner or one of the consigliere — they need to speak now and prevent Chia from completely ruining this franchise.

  196. Bling says:

    I confess that it stings to see how good Matthews/Nylander are together.

    Could you imagine a McDavid/Hall line? Yikes.

  197. OriginalPouzar says:

    Bling:
    Following the Oilers is becoming an exercise in exasperation.

    It’s getting to the point now where we are cheering for management to not make a stupid move.

    The hemorrhage of talent has been real and it has been spectacular. What is absolutely mind-numbing is that the higher ups seemingly lack the humility and/or intelligence to learn from past mistakes. Chiarelli is making the same mistakes two and three and four times across two franchises!

    Reading the Nicholson quote and then learning that RNH/Klef are apparently on the market while negotiations are ongoing with Maroon is just devastatingly stupid. Also, WHY ARE THEY LOOKING FOR A RIGHT HANDED D-MAN!?!?! GUYS, THAT IS NOT THE PROBLEM RIGHT NOW!!!

    Enough. If there is anyone in this org with an ounce of clarity — whether it is the owner or one of the consigliere — they need to speak now and prevent Chia from completely ruining this franchise.

    I am not fearing a stupid move by management but going in to the deadline with excitement hoping management may be able to grab a real NHL ready prospect – I think that is the plan for our rentals – we’ll see if it comes to fruition but I”m excited to add some futures in any event.

    I don’t understand you the yelled part of your post – a 1st/2nd pairing RHD is absolutely the primary need on this team and needs to be the primary focus of management (in conjunction with the disposition of a $4M contract on the left side, hopefully Russell, some how, some way).

  198. OriginalPouzar says:

    Bling:
    I confess that it stings to see how good Matthews/Nylander are together.

    Could you imagine a McDavid/Hall line? Yikes.

    Interesting statement as the Oilers have two players that sometimes play together and, when they do, have been known to form the best duo in the hockey world – fans, however, blast the coaching staff as both are centers and therefore should be on different lines.

    Seems both Matthews and Nylander were also drafted as centers….

  199. Scungilli Slushy says:

    Bling: Reading the Nicholson quote and then learning that RNH/Klef are apparently on the market while negotiations are ongoing with Maroon is just devastatingly stupid. Also, WHY ARE THEY LOOKING FOR A RIGHT HANDED D-MAN!?!?! GUYS, THAT IS NOT THE PROBLEM RIGHT NOW!!!

    If they do something that stupid and also get hosed on the trades I’m not sure I’ll be able to watch them.

    We will also have definitive proof that they have no idea what wins hockey games and previous success on other teams was luck and having enough elite players to carry their mistakes.

    We’ll also know the OBC is directing things showcasing their obsession with size and toughness yet again.

  200. rope-a-dope says:

    What I don’t like about the Nicholson quote is that firstly, it lets the cat out of the bag, weakening Chia’s bargaining position, he already needs help in that area. Secondly (maybe I’m reading into it too much) but a trade for a dman isn’t going to fix this team at a fundamental level, one player in one trade is never a magic bullet. To get better the team as a whole also needs to execute, there’s exactly 4 guys on the team who are executing well enough right now. This in my opinion means that coaching and pro player development is a huge issue. Which brings me to another observation, Todd genuinely doesn’t seem like he can solve problems which is why we’re here, he hasn’t been able to solve the special teams among other things. This is a critical skill of successful coaches.

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