G59 2017-18: Bruins at Oilers

The youngsters arrived in waves, those young Boston Bruins of the 1960’s. In 66-67, Bobby Orr signaled a new tomorrow, along with fellow rookies Joe Watson (who would star for the Flyers), Bill Goldsworthy (who would do the same for the North Stars) and Gerry Cheevers. A year later it was Derek Sanderson and Glen Sather, followed by Wayne Cashman and Rick Smith. In 1969-70, the year Stanley saw dirty water, it was Jim Lorentz, Don Marcotte and Garnet Bailey. Every great team owns a grand pipeline of youth, and it is vital Edmonton’s general manager—no matter who is in that chair—begins laying pipe in a quick hurry.

THE ATHLETIC!

DIRTY WATER, YEAR OVER YEAR

  • February 2016: 3-6-0, goal differential -6 (6 points)
  • February 2017: 5-4-0, goal differential -1 (10 points)
  • February 2018: 2-6-1, goal differential -7 (5 points)
  • February 20, 2016: Colorado 3, Edmonton 2 (Source)
  • February 24, 2017: Washington 2, Edmonton 1 (Source)

Edmonton has some things going now, Cam Talbot is stopping pucks and Connor McDavid is going supernova. Even the penalty kill is having moments. If they can get some secondary scoring, 80 points may not be such a distant bell. Will that make a difference for Peter Chiarelli and Todd McLellan? Not sure, but a long losing coda that ends the season may well seal the fate of both men.

AFTER 58, YEAR OVER YEAR

  • Oilers 15-16: 22-30-6, goal differential -38 (50 points)
  • Oilers 16-17: 31-19-8, goal differential +18 (70 points)
  • Oilers 17-18: 24-30-4, goal differential -30 (52 points)
  • February 18, 2016: Minnesota 5, Edmonton 2 (Source)
  • February 18, 2017: Edmonton 3, Chicago 1 (Source)

A win tonight gets Edmonton some breathing room in the race with the 2015-16 Oilers. It’s insane they are here but that’s the story of this season. I projected the team to score 257 and give up 217 (+40), a small +4 increase on the team’s 2016-17 totals (243-207). The Oilers are currently 160-190 and on pace to finish 226-264, -38. There are hits and there are misses, and then there’s this season. How many observers predicted a goals-against increase of 57? Show me that link, I don’t think anyone saw that coming.

WHAT TO EXPECT FROM FEBRUARY

  • At home to: Colorado, Tampa Bay (Expected 0-1-1) (Actual 1-0-1)
  • On the road to: Los AngelesAnaheimSan Jose (Expected 1-1-1) (Actual 0-3-0)
  • At home to: Florida (Expected 1-0-0) (Actual 0-1-0)
  • On the road to: Vegas, Arizona, Colorado (Expected 2-1-0) (Actual 1-2-0)
  • At home to: Boston, Colorado (Expected 1-1-0) (Actual 0-0-0)
  • On the road to: Los Angeles, Anaheim, San Jose (Expected 0-2-1) (Actual 0-0-0)
  • Overall expected result: 5-6-3, 13 points in 14 games
  • Current results: 2-6-1, five points in nine games 

The trade deadline will come with the team in California, nice and close to the farm team should a recall be required. I don’t think the Oilers will make a major deal involving contracts with term at the deadline but there are interesting names being thrown out there. More in a minute.

Patrick Maroon is No. 4 and Mark Letestu No. 7 on the list currently, with a pile of players on the list that make sense for Edmonton. I’ll list Mike Hoffman, Max Domi, Jordan Kyrou, Nic Petan as attractive options for the Oilers, don’t have any specific trades in mind.

The Oilers could make this happen but the Senators would have to take back Milan Lucic. Lucic ($6M times five more years after this one) and the payoff would be Oscar Klefbom ($4.167M times five more years after this one). Erik Karlsson ($6.5M with one year left) and Bobby Ryan ($7.250M times four more years after this one) would be coming to Edmonton, meaning the Oilers take on $3.5 million in cap for the next three years but rid themselves of the final two seasons of Lucic. Perhaps Ottawa could retain some of the money. I don’t think it happens, makes no sense for Edmonton.

LOWDOWN WITH LOWETIDE

At 10 this morning, TSN1260. Scheduled to appear:

  • Jonathan Willis, The Athletic. How quickly can the Oilers recover?
  • Scott Cullen, TSN. Jays, deadline, Olympics.
  • Ryan Holt, Bakersfield Condors play-by-play. Ethan Bear spiking.

10-1260 text, @Lowetide on twitter. See you on the radio!

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499 Responses to "G59 2017-18: Bruins at Oilers"

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  1. OriginalPouzar says:

    Oilers play one of the best in the league tonight.

    Here is hoping that Maroon has himself a plus game as the Bruins are one of the teams interested in him – he’s playing some of his worst hockey as an Oiler, right as we are trying to trade him and scouts are out in abundance – not great timing (his knee may be hurting him, I don’t know).

    I’ll be watching to see if Talbot can string together his third 2016/17 like performance in a row.

    Go Oilers!

  2. OriginalPouzar says:

    Imagine if Bobby Ryan got back to his goal scoring form and Karlsson got back to full health?

    Can’t imagine the Sens agreeing to take back the Lucic contract and I can’t imagine the Oilers landing Erik Karlsson and the inability to re-sign him at this point make the move a HUGE risk.

    Would Lucic waive to go to Ottawa? Seems unlikely to me.

  3. Woogie63 says:

    I went to the Flames v. Bruins yesterday. Bruins are very good right now. The team’s fans travel very well. Tonight is going to be a real test for the Oilers.

  4. Melman says:

    3 years post PC and the Bs are now rolling. Just so we’re all aware of the timeline…

  5. LMHF#1 says:

    Vegas should go after Karlsson. Would be amazing for them to get that caliber of player this early on.

  6. Justthestatsman says:

    Melman:
    3 years post PC and the Bs are now rolling.Just so we’re all aware of the timeline…

    Well that’s um…encouraging. Anyone know if there’s an “Ice Dancing” specialty channel?

  7. dustrock says:

    Hard to believe Karlsson/Ryan could be traded at the deadline.

    Think he’s gone in the offseason.

    Question for the Oilers: if T-Mac fixes the PP and PK the rest of the way, will he be back next year?

    I think so.

    I personally believe McLellan is on more stable ground than Chiarelli, but I have no real information.

  8. octobergirl1 says:

    Hunter1909’s Emergency!™ Death March™ MAJOR ANNOUNCEMENT:

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    Currently registered subscribers will be voting between the 3 choices up to March 1 @ midnight, Lowetide time(Mountain) – after this the result will be made available.

    Thank you for your cooperation.

  9. octobergirl1 says:

    Hunter1909 Emergency Death March Update for new/returning players:

    Here’s how you play: Go to http://www.oilersdeathmarch.com and click “Enter Emergency D.M.”

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    With the team’s improbable suckage, it’s time to get predictions in. Prizes to be won!

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  10. Scungilli Slushy says:

    Melman:
    3 years post PC and the Bs are now rolling.Just so we’re all aware of the timeline…

    Chiarelli was a part of building the player group they have now. I think the bigger difference is the coach opening up their systems which Krug mentioned.

    The worry is Chia still has that mindset about overly conservative and defensive coaching. Every team needs to be good at defending, but when you have players like the Oilers do, you want to be an attacking team.

    Same thing happened with the Pens.

  11. Kinger_Oil.redux says:

    Last year:

    – Klef had one less point than OEL and was emerging as a bona-fide all-round stud D

    – Larsson: playoffs: everyone was like” wow what a stud”, and dare say “Oh that’s why we got him”

    – Talbot: Vezina votes

    – Coach: Jack Adams votes

    – GM: GM of the year votes

    – With Sek, we win game 7, and have a good shot vs. Nashville

    – Sleppy was beast-mode in playoffs, played great, looking like a great winger

    This year, why so different?

    – Klef hurt

    – Larsson hurt

    – Talbot sh$t

    – Same coach: just not Jack Adams

    – Same GM: just not GM of year votes

    – Sek: Nurse has stepped up in his absence

    – Sleppy hurt in pre-season

    I come in peace. I hope they change up the coaching staff (keep coach, bring in some help, and Coach needs to have more games where they impose their will) Put coach on notice though

    – Draft well, make some trades, grow, learn, be like Tampa Bay or Devils or Peg or Boston or Dallas: tweak, get better, don’t blow it up…

  12. J-Bo says:

    There is a lot of talk of course about firing Chiarelli and Tmac. I wonder if a good place to start with firings is simply with whoever pushed for the Reinhart deal and not drafting Barzal. Whether it is an amateur scout, professional scout, old boys club, gm, or equipment manager, fire them all. I know the Hall trade looks bad too but for me it is understandable at certain levels and value came back. The Reinhart trade is as ugly as they come. Hindsight is 20/20, but I don’t care. Fire em all!!

  13. J-Bo says:

    Scungilli Slushy: Chiarelli was a part of building the player group they have now. I think the bigger difference is the coach opening up their systems which Krug mentioned.

    The worry is Chia still has that mindset about overly conservative and defensive coaching. Every team needs to be good at defending, but when you have players like the Oilers do, you want to be an attacking team.

    Same thing happened with the Pens.

    This is a very interesting point… any thoughts for a coach who could do this for the Oil?

  14. Kinger_Oil.redux says:

    J-Bo:
    There is a lot of talk of course about firing Chiarelli and Tmac. I know the Hall trade looks bad too but for me it is understandable at certain levels and value came back.

    – Last year playoffs: Larsson was a beast, just nasty to play against, awesome: even LT said he got why we did the trade: we were all blown away by playoff Larsson.

  15. JimmyV1965 says:

    I’m actually surprised our Goals For is only 14 off the pace from last year. Geez, you would think we’re down more than 14 Goals For on the power play alone. Such a confusing season.

  16. Pescador says:

    I come in peace.
    Kinger_Oil.redux,

    attack attack attack

  17. OilClog says:

    TMac needs to fix the PP, PK, and change the 5×5 systems.

    He could fix the special teams, but the 5×5 is not changing. 5×5 issues are the same issues that plagued the sharks and drove their talent nuts for years. Why would anyone want that to continue?

    Regardless after the goal is called back tonight he’s going to leave his team out in the cold during his post game presser.

    The man has lost the room, time for a new voice.

  18. Pescador says:

    dustrock:
    Hard to believe Karlsson/Ryan could be traded at the deadline.

    Think he’s gone in the offseason.

    Question for the Oilers: if T-Mac fixes the PP and PK the rest of the way, will he be back next year?

    I think so.

    I personally believe McLellan is on more stable ground than Chiarelli, but I have no real information.

    Chiarelli will fire McLellan before the draft,
    book it

  19. frjohnk says:

    Boston is a very good team.

    Went through a bit of a retool phase when Chia got punted.

    Imagine how good that team would be if they had something to show for Seguin.

    McDavid will see a bunch of Bergeron and Chara tonight and Oilers will need somebody other than McDavid or Draisaitl to step up.

    Hopefully Lucic awakes from his 20 plus game slumber and has a good game.

  20. Andy Dufresne says:

    Kinger_Oil.redux:
    Last year:

    – Klef had one less point than OEL and was emerging as a bona-fide all-round stud D

    – Larsson: playoffs: everyone was like” wow what a stud”, and dare say “Oh that’s why we got him”

    – Talbot: Vezina votes

    – Coach: Jack Adams votes

    – GM: GM of the year votes

    – With Sek, we win game 7, and have a good shot vs. Nashville

    – Sleppy was beast-mode in playoffs, played great, looking like a great winger

    This year, why so different?

    – Klef hurt

    – Larsson hurt

    – Talbot sh$t

    – Same coach: just not Jack Adams

    – Same GM: just not GM of year votes

    – Sek: Nurse has stepped up in his absence

    – Sleppy hurt in pre-season

    I come in peace.I hope they change up the coaching staff (keep coach, bring in some help, and Coach needs to have more games where they impose their will)Put coach on notice though

    – Draft well, make some trades, grow, learn, be likeTampa Bay or Devils or Peg or Boston or Dallas: tweak, get better, don’t blow it up…

    Blessed are the Cheesemakers.

    I think you’ve got it just about right. Its called perspective. Thank you for that.

    Here’s the premise Chia and TMac are smart guys. They see everything we see. They built a roster to compete in the Western Conference and had success in year two.

    The league is changing in real time. Parity, youth, officiating, etc. They will adapt. Have already started to adapt via the draft.

    Nicholson continuously stressing Organizational Stability all but garauntees Chia and TMac are here in September.

    The next 5 moves will bring more speed/quickness and finishing skill to the roster. There will be no panic selloffs….How they procure 2nd pair RHD is probably the largest unkown moving forward.

    Its not rocket surgery.

  21. Scungilli Slushy says:

    J-Bo: This is a very interesting point… any thoughts for a coach who could do this for the Oil?

    I’m not sure outside of the obvious like Quenneville. Vor has been posting a lot of options.

    The key is maximizing what you have. Every fan, coach and GM has a wishlist, but it isn’t possible to just get what you want because of cost, GMs that won’t trade with you for whatever reason, etc.

    What I do know is that when you have Connor McDavid on your team getting the puck to forwards is job number 1. Having a defensively oriented team isn’t a match with having elite talents.

    They still have to be defensive but the real advantage is having an attack only other teams with elite forwards can match, and not every team has them.

    Sort of like how Johnston’s way completely stifled having Crosby, Malkin and Kessel. Change of coach and it looks like a different team. Then the GM adds Hagelin and Schultz after he sees how well it’s working.

    Seems like the plan to follow if you’re the Oilers.

  22. russ99 says:

    Would love to see he Oilers land Karlsson, it would be the big deal we need akin to landing Pronger.

    But if you think they’ll take Lucic, not sure what you’re smoking.

    But if we’re moving Klefbom and RNH, we’d need something better back than Ryan.

    Klefbom, RNH and 1st pick swap for Karlsson, Hoffman and Formenton?

  23. Andy Dufresne says:

    Ottawa signaling they want to package Ryan in the Karlsson deal makes teams like Pheonix the front runners in the Karlsson sweepstakes. Low cap team with with assets and a history of taking on bad contracts in return for skill.

  24. Scungilli Slushy says:

    Rutherford added Reaves which seems like a change in direction.

    However having a hockey player that needs to be taken seriously physically is still a part of the game because reffing.

    The Oilers can drag Lucic and his salary around. But they can only have one like that and rely on Khaira and Nurse to help out.

    Kassian is an interesting player and by WG’s numbers seems to have third line offense, which is where he should be used at his salary. They have to find a helpful third line, and if that pushes Kassian definitely into a 4th line role he’s too expensive for that.

    If it gets to where there are clearly better 3rd line options than him he has to go, he’s too expensive for 4th.

  25. godot10 says:

    Lucic is NEVER going to waive his NMC to move to a rebuilding Ottawa.

  26. Kinger_Oil.redux says:

    Andy Dufresne:

    Here’s the premise Chia and TMac are smart guys. They see everything we see. They built a roster to compete in the Western Conference and had success in year two.

    The league is changing in real time. Parity, youth, officiating, etc. They will adapt. Have already started to adapt via the draft.

    Nicholson continuously stressing Organizational Stability all but garauntees Chia and TMac are here in September.

    The next 5 moves will bring more speed/quickness and finishing skill to the roster. There will be no panic selloffs….How they procure 2nd pair RHD is probably the largest unkown moving forward.

    Its not rocket surgery.

    – I hope your right. Results matter, and the knee-jerk is to blow it up again

    – Lot’s of good for years 2-8 of McD and Drai come out of this year however

    – If you think Chia and Coach are dumb and sh$t: lot’s to hang one’s hat on this year

    – Either last year was a mirage, or this year is.

    – Be careful what you wish for: Hire the next shiny accomplished GM + head coach, with proven track records. But they will be different, and better.

    – Because the next ones for sure won’t have some warts to go along with their accomplishments

  27. knighttown says:

    I agree that goals against has been a bigger issue than goals for however, versus potential, here’s your counter:

    – we have 1 winger in double digits in goals (Maroon 14)
    – our leading goal scorer on the wing is soon to have 9 goals (Luc, Pooj)
    – the lowest leading winger goal scorer I can find in the NHL is Perlini and Josh Anderson with 17…9 will be #1 with a bullet

    9 goals will get you in a tie for 125th in winger goal scoring. 62 top line wingers, 62 2nd line wingers…that equals 124.

    So at 125th we have only 3rd line wingers and lower. This is why I don’t get the vitriol over giving Slepy or Caggs top line minutes. Whomever plays with McDavid is 2 lines ahead (at least) of where they deserve to be.

  28. Scungilli Slushy says:

    McLellan has the experience to change systems, if he wanted to. I’m not sure his assistants know what they are doing.

    These decisions aren’t taken by one person, especially with the Oilers and the platoon of inputters.

    The question is whether Chiarelli and McL see that they need to do things differently. Chiarelli needs to stop trading skill for less coming back. He needs to value players that can do something with the puck above all else and can play the game as it is now, and looking forward.

    I think willingness is the heart of the matter. If both want to keep looking to perfect the Bruins and Sharks of a few years ago roll out the Sun Cannon. You’d think Gretzky the elder would be advocating for a more offensive style at least, and wanting to maximize things for Connor and Leon.

  29. frjohnk says:

    knighttown:
    I agree that goals against has been a bigger issue than goals for however, versus potential, here’s your counter:

    – we have 1 winger in double digits in goals (Maroon 14)
    – our leading goal scorer on the wing is soon to have 9 goals (Luc, Pooj)
    – the lowest leading winger goal scorer I can find in the NHL is Perlini and Josh Anderson with 17…9 will be #1 with a bullet

    9 goals will get you in a tie for 125th in winger goal scoring.62 top line wingers, 62 2nd line wingers…that equals 124.

    So at 125th we have only 3rd line wingers and lower.This is why I don’t get the vitriol over giving Slepy or Caggs top line minutes.Whomever plays with McDavid is 2 lines ahead (at least) of where they deserve to be.

    #worstwingerdepthintheleague

  30. godot10 says:

    J-Bo: This is a very interesting point… any thoughts for a coach who could do this for the Oil?

    Jacques Martin has had a close up view of what Sullivan is doing in Pittsburgh with a generational player and a 2nd elite centre, a no-name defense, and cheap speedy wingers. He get what there is out of his teams historically…they don’t underperform. He is patient and has success with European players. Understands and knows how to teach defense. He took the chaos out of Chara’s game and made Chara what he is today.

  31. sumaclab says:

    it would cost the Oilers 1st round pick this year. He is a free agent at the end of next season? I like Bobby Ryan. He has issues but is a player.

  32. OriginalPouzar says:

    Nuge sighting on the ice at morning skate – good stuff.

  33. Kinger_Oil.redux says:

    frjohnk: #worstwingerdepthintheleague

    – Last year, team PDO was 9th: 100.9

    – This year, team PDO is 2nd worst: 97.5

    – Last year, team CF% was 11th, @ 50.4%

    – This year, team CF% way better: 4rth in league @ 52.2%

    We can parse this any way: yeah but scoring effects, blah blah.

    – This team is a lot better than it’s results Whether you blow up or tweak it, we are going to be a lot better next year. We have been very unlucky this year, along with everything else

  34. Rondo says:

    Chiarelli work .

    1. Lucic contract
    2. Russells contract
    3. Hall
    4. Eberle
    5. Reinhart
    6. Dougie Hamilton wouldn’t trade with Chiarelli
    7. Draft pick for Chiarelli

    Not bad work. Ha ha

  35. Offside says:

    Kinger_Oil.redux,

    So we have these improvements despite injuries. Are you suggesting we could go supernova next year if we stay healthy?

  36. OriginalPouzar says:

    Same lineup as last game:

    Maroon-McDavid-Caggiula
    Lucic-Draisaitl-Cammalleri
    Khaira-Strome-Slepyshev
    Puljujarvi-Letestu-Kassian

    Nurse-Larsson
    Klefbom-Russell
    Davidson-Benning

    Talbot

  37. frjohnk says:

    Kinger_Oil.redux: – Last year, team PDO was 9th: 100.9

    – This year, team PDO is 2nd worst: 97.5

    – Last year, team CF% was 11th, @ 50.4%

    – This year, team CF% way better: 4rth in league @ 52.2%

    We can parse this any way: yeah but scoring effects, blah blah.

    – This team is a lot better than it’s resultsWhether you blow up or tweak it, we are going to be a lot better next year.We have been very unlucky this year, along with everything else

    Too many shots from perimeter.

    Too many players who can’t finish.

    Yeah. We will better next year. I’m expecting special teams to be somewhat fixed.

    Should battle for a playoff spot but lots of holes in the roster.

    Defence still needs fixing.

    Need to add wingers who can play top 6. Probably only have JP next year with Maroon gone. Unless Draisaitl keeps playing wing. Rest of wingers are bottom 6.

    Hopefully salary cap moves up $7M, so we don’t have to trade RNH and Klefbom for inferior players to fit in under the cap.

    Need a goalie to push Talbot.

  38. OriginalPouzar says:

    Sekera was also out at morning skate in addition to Nuge.

  39. hags9k says:

    I don’t think it would be Lucic, but rather RNH or Drai as part of the deal.

    I’d seriously consider it even if it’s Drai.

  40. ArmchairGM says:

    OriginalPouzar:
    Oilers play one of the best in the league tonight.

    Here is hoping that Maroon has himself a plus game as the Bruins are one of the teams interested in him – he’s playing some of his worst hockey as an Oiler, right as we are trying to trade him and scouts are out in abundance – not great timing (his knee may be hurting him, I don’t know).

    I’ll be watching to see if Talbot can string together his third 2016/17 like performance in a row.

    Go Oilers!

    Time for a Gordie Howe Hat Trick!

  41. OilClog says:

    Wasn’t Remenda shitting all over Eberle at the end of last season?

    Isn’t Remenda getting his tidbits to go off on straight from TMac.

    Coach had as much to do with Eberle leaving as the GM, probably more. GM isn’t shipping out guys the coach favours.

    So if GM trade for available skill, there’s zero evidence coach will actually properly use the skill brought in.

  42. Kinger_Oil.redux says:

    Offside:
    Kinger_Oil.redux,

    So we have these improvements despite injuries. Are you suggesting we could go supernova next year if we stay healthy?

    – if next year Klef = OEL (he was last year, and he’s 4 years younger)

    – if next year Larsson back to beast mode

    – if next year Nurse = Sek (he is this year)

    – if next year Sek is able to play top-4

    – if next year Talbot isn’t sh$t

    – if next year Pool sticks with skill in his 3rd year

    – if next year PDO isn’t league worst

    – if next year PP/PK at least average

    I know sh%t: But sure: why not be the NJ/Stars/Peg/Tampa next year.

    – Teams just don’t blow the league away anymore. I think some here think we could have had a glory-Oil team.

    – A few Cups in the next 8 years is max: with lots of mediocre years as well: this is hockey today. L.A. wins cup then doesn’t make playoffs. They did this twice each. Pittsburg took years to win their 2nd Cup

    – We had a sh%t year: tweak, sh#t happens, get better, move on

  43. Oilin4 says:

    Justthestatsman: Well that’s um…encouraging.Anyone know if there’s an “Ice Dancing” specialty channel?

    https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Q1oKqR3JlzQ

  44. npanciroli says:

    I would only trade Draisaitl for the exact equivalent in a RHD same age, contract, ability etc.

    Kind of like McAvoy but maybe someone who has done it a couple years in a row.

  45. who says:

    Rondo:
    Chiarelli work .

    1. Lucic contract
    2. Russells contract
    3. Hall
    4. Eberle
    5. Reinhart
    6. Dougie Hamilton wouldn’t trade with Chiarelli
    7. Draft pick for Chiarelli

    Not bad work. Ha ha

    If you are rating these moves from worst to best what would be the order. I am leaving out 6 and 7 because Chia had no control over these.
    Worst
    Lucic signing. This one will cripple this team for at least 3 more years and probably 5. Right now it looks like a 4 million per year overpay with a NMC. Mind boggling mistake to chase additional toughness when they already had Maroon, Kassian, Nurse, Gryba and Hendricks on the roster.
    2nd Worst.
    Reinhart trade. More like 1b to the above 1a. If you are wondering why the Oilers have no forward prospects in Bakersfield look no further. Those two picks would have been first year pros and pushing to make the Oilers. Three years later Reinhart still hasn’t stuck in the NHL. Horrible evaluation of talent.
    3rd Worst. Not a franchise killer for me but obviously done a year too soon. Some people say waiting a year would have risked getting less for Eberle. Tough to get much less than Strome.
    4th Worst. Russell signing. 1 year too long and 1 million too much. Plus that pesky NMC has pretty much locked in this dcore until summer of 2019. Not a franchise crippler but too rigid and too expensive.
    5th Worst. Hall trade. This one still looks okay to me although Hall is having a great year in NJ . At least Chia got real value back in this one. Solid right dman who can handle 1st pairing minutes and is 2 million cheaper than Hall with an extra year of team control. Maybe he could have got more but this is probably the most cap friendly deal Chia has ever made.

  46. OriginalPouzar says:

    Coach says Sekera is possible for Thursday but Nuge will be back in March.

  47. OriginalPouzar says:

    Bruins have only lost in regulation once after scoring the first goal (happened to be against the Oilers).

    Might be a good idea to try and get the first one for a change….

  48. Bank Shot says:

    Oilers will be able to buy out Lucic in 2020 if he continues to slide. The angst over this contract is too much.

    For the offseason Grabner could be a good a good option for the Oilers to pursue. He has speed and he doesn’t seem to be valued around the league so he should come cheap. He can PK. Seems like great fit for the OIlers.

    Options to replace Letestu as 4th line center look pretty bleak. I think you would just look at a guy who is passable at ED and a plus PKer. Letestu’s PP ability was nice last year, but the Oilers should be able to fill that internally.

  49. godot10 says:

    frjohnk: Too many shots from perimeter.

    Yeah. We will better next year. I’m expecting special teams to be somewhat fixed.

    They haven’t fixed the PK in 15 months, and seem to have no idea what the problem is. Why do you think they PK will be fixed next season?

  50. Decidedly Skeptical Fan says:

    OriginalPouzar:
    Bruins have only lost in regulation once after scoring the first goal (happened to be against the Oilers).

    Might be a good idea to try and get the first one for a change….

    I’m willing to settle for just stopping the first and second shots against and see how it goes from there.

  51. godot10 says:

    Kinger_Oil.redux:
    – A few Cups in the next 8 years is max: with lots of mediocre years as well: this is hockey today.L.A. wins cup then doesn’t make playoffs.They did this twice each.Pittsburg took years to win their 2nd Cup

    Pittsburgh had the wrong coach. Sullivan has had worse rosters than Bylsma had.

  52. Brantford Boy says:

    Bank Shot:

    For the offseason Grabner could be a good a good option for the Oilers to pursue. He has speed and he doesn’t seem to be valued around the league so he should come cheap. He can PK. Seems likegreat fit for the OIlers.

    I agree, almost so much I wonder if its worth the pick now to get him, perhaps give him the opportunity to show he fits before signing him for a year, and also get this damn PK turned around… if the coach won’t play him or he doesn’t gel within our system, then there’s no sense with an extension… plus we would have first dibs at extension talks if it does work out…

  53. DBO says:

    Bank Shot,

    Khaira and Strome can play Letestu’s role, only better. One not talked about story line is the emergence of Strome as a solid PK option. RH centre who can PK, play decent at PP and has decent size and skill are worth a lot (see Bonino signing in Nashville who got 4 x $4.1). So $3 mill for Strome works. Have Khaira as 4th line centre who can move up if needed and you have serious centre depth.

  54. Kinger_Oil.redux says:

    godot10: They haven’t fixed the PK in 15 months, and seem to have no idea what the problem is.Why do you think they PK will be fixed next season?

    – Just not true what you say,

    – Last year our PK was average: we let in the 20th least goals, and were middle of pack in effeciency

    – This year we have let in the most goals, and are the least efficient (by a lot)

    – Maybe Sek/Klef/Larsson not healthy hurt our PK. Maybe Talbot being sh$t is explained by the D, or just a bad year. Or maybe the special teams coaches didn’t adapt. Or maybe all of the above

    – Also, I know this isn’t your point, but our PP was elite last year

    – Last year, the Oil scored the 6th most PP goals, and had 4rth best efficiency

    – This year we have scored the least amount of PP goals, it’s not even close, 2nd worst efficiency

    – PP was very good last year, very bad this year. Folly to believe it won’t get better

  55. Racki says:

    The Oilers are not getting Karlsson (with or without Ryan) for Lucic and Klefbom. That’s crazy talk.

    Bob McKenzie had a comment about a trade with the Bolts… he said a trade between the two STARTS at Sergachev. So that gives you a bit of a bar. We’re not getting the top D in the league (arguably) for our botched free agent signing and a d-man that’s still wandering trying to figure out what he is.

    And on top of that, forget about them retaining any salary.

    If we had any hope in landing Karlsson, it would start with a major piece like Draisaitl. With the Sens wanting to shed salary, I’m not sure they’d like that though, even though Draisaitl’s salary will be a lot less than what Klef ends up getting.

    I think Karlsson will be a phenomenal addition to any team, let alone the Oilers, but I think the ask is going to be huge. Certainly not something easy to pull the trigger on, like Klef+Lucic.

  56. Kinger_Oil.redux says:

    godot10: Pittsburgh had the wrong coach.Sullivan has had worse rosters than Bylsma had.

    – Sullivan didn’t have Fleruy be so bad at the playoff goalering…

  57. frjohnk says:

    godot10: They haven’t fixed the PK in 15 months, and seem to have no idea what the problem is.Why do you think they PK will be fixed next season?

    New coaches, at least for special teams, if not a whole changeover for start of next year.

  58. Andy Dufresne says:

    File this under the topic Crazy Innovation.

    Centers for next year.

    Draisaitl
    Nuge
    Strome
    Kharia

    McDavid plays role of Rover. He plays 24 to 28 minutes per game and moves around the lineup. (mainly some mix of the top three lines) Whatever line you put him on, that center automatically moves to the wing. Make it literallly impossible for opposing coach to line match.

    Its like Virtual 3D Unicorns.

    Lets take the term McBlender to a whole new level.

  59. Bank Shot says:

    DBO:
    Bank Shot,

    One not talked about story line is the emergence of Strome as a solid PK option.

    It’s not talked about because it hasn’t happened. Strome hasn’t even played 20 minutes on the PK yet. I would like to see the OIlers acquire someone with a longer track record than that.

    Khaira ran hot for a bit but now has 3 points in his last 21 games.

    I’m not penning either of these guys into next year’s roster until we see what else can be acquired. There is room to upgrade the bottom six for sure.

  60. Rondo says:

    who,

    Worst for me by far is Reinhart.

  61. fifthcartel says:

    A friend sent me this post from another place:

    “Listening to the podcasts of Oilers Now from the end of last week:

    – Hinting hard at Boston being front runner for Maroon. Says ‘prospect on entry level contract’. Would love Bjork but I feel like that’s a pipe dream.
    – Tampa Bay in the mix for Maroon if Boston doesn’t work out
    – Dont expect a big-name right-handed shooting defenceman. Will be a smaller trade for a player ‘buried down the lineup’. Mentioned Honka from Dallas and Schmaltz from Blues”

    I’d say this is coming from one of, if not the, most connected Oilers source: Bob Stauffer.

    Bjork seems like a pipe dream. I have a feeling they’ll get their disappointing first rounder, Zach Senyshyn, picked by Keith Gretzky. IIRC, Senyshyn is very fast.

    If the big add to the right side is Honka or Schmaltz, I won’t be surprised to see minimal improvement next year. I do like buying low on those guys, maybe they become a second-pairing guy, great! But they can’t be the only add on defence.

    I still think Klefbom and RNH go for a W and RHD, but they’re in a bad situation. I’m terrified at Peter Chiarelli making those trades.

    Fire the mall.

  62. godot10 says:

    Bank Shot:
    Oilers will be able to buy out Lucic in 2020 if he continues to slide. The angst over this contract is too much.

    Because of front-loading and the large signing bonuses in Lucic’s contract, it is buyout proof. There are no significant cap savings buying out Lucic in any season. You can buy him out, he is still going to cost $4 milllion to $6 million against the cap because of the signing bonuses and front-loading and the resulting salary cap recaputre.

  63. godot10 says:

    DBO:
    Bank Shot,

    Khaira and Strome can play Letestu’s role, only better. One not talked about story line is the emergence of Strome as a solid PK option. RH centre who can PK, play decent at PP and has decent size and skill are worth a lot (see Bonino signing in Nashville who got 4 x $4.1). So $3 mill for Strome works. Have Khaira as 4th line centre who can move up if needed and you have serious centre depth.

    Where is there any evidence that Strome is a strong PK option? He is not.

  64. Bank Shot says:

    Brantford Boy: I agree, almost so much I wonder if its worth the pick now to get him, perhaps give him the opportunity to show he fits before signing him for a year, and also get this damn PK turned around… if the coach won’t play him or he doesn’t gel within our system, then there’s no sense with an extension… plus we would have first dibs at extension talks if it does work out…

    I think that’s a good idea as long as they don’t have to give up any real futures. If its a 5th-6th or Slepyshev they should pull the trigger.

    If the Rangers are looking for a 4th or higher, or a real prospect the Oilers just can’t afford it. Their development system is too weak.

  65. godot10 says:

    Kinger_Oil.redux: – Just not true what you say,

    – Last year our PK was average: we let in the 20th least goals, and were middle of pack in effeciency

    – This year we have let in the most goals, and are the least efficient (by a lot)

    – Maybe Sek/Klef/Larsson not healthy hurt our PK.Maybe Talbot being sh$t is explained by the D, or just a bad year.Or maybe the special teams coaches didn’t adapt.Or maybe all of the above

    – Also, I know this isn’t your point, but our PP was elite last year

    – Last year, the Oil scored the 6th most PP goals, and had 4rth best efficiency

    – This year we have scored the least amount of PP goals, it’s not even close, 2nd worst efficiency

    – PP was very good last year, very bad this year.Folly to believe it won’t get better

    From December 2016 till now, the Oilers PK has been running about 75%…from about the time they demoted Lander and Pitlick got hurt. They were hot for two months in October and November, and awful since December 2016.

  66. godot10 says:

    Kinger_Oil.redux: – Sullivan didn’t have Fleruy be so bad at the playoff goalering…

    Fleury played a lot in the playoffs last year.

  67. knighttown says:

    frjohnk: #worstwingerdepthintheleague

    The scary thing is, even with these results I wouldn’t drastically change this part of the vision. I still believe you should go cheap on the wings and spend your money down the middle and on the blueline. We saw too many years when the Oilers had a top 10 group of wingers and couldn’t do shit.

    I’d first replace Chiarelli with one of Vor’s candidates like BriseBois. There’s zero justification for keeping his job except continuity and that doesn’t hold water for me.

    I’d look to trade Strome for one of Red Wings middle six guys; Athanasiou, Tatar, Nyquist. I’d look at one of the RFA’s out there like Jason Zucker or Vlad Namestnikov or sign Grabner if he’s still undervalued. I’d flip Davidson for a depth winger like Ryan Dzingel.

    I would have a serious sit down with Connor and Drai this summer and let them know that they only way this team competes (with their cap hit) is if Connor can post 55% goal share with dregs and Leon post 52% goal share with middling wingers. I truly believe they are playing together because Connor and/or Leon have asked/demanded it.

    Zucker- McDavid- Puljujaarvi
    Lucic- Draisaitl- Athanasiou
    Sleppy- Nuge- Dzingel
    Caggs/Replacement- Khaira- Kassian

    No pure 1st line wingers but a lot more speed on the wings.

    I’d fire the coaching staff over the special teams debacle and count on that regressing.

    I’d count on Talbot regressing but would get an upgrade at backup. Perhaps a 1B but at least someone who will take a league average number of backup starts.

    There are some items that couldn’t be repeated in 100 Oiler seasons:

    – a team with a 52% Corsi Close (top 10) meaning that they are above water in shot shares with the game close can’t possible post a goal share of 21.7% as long as we live

    – a team (that again, isn’t terrible) could never post a combined PP and PK % of 86.4% for as long as we live. Pittsburgh, San Jose and some others are approaching 108 combined.

    Both of these items are MASSIVE. The second is obvious but the impact of the first has been simply devastating.

    I guarantee you don’t know this but the Oilers are #1 in the NHL in unblocked shot attempt percentage (Fenwick) while leading. They aren’t just good with the lead…they’re pretty much dominant.

    The problem is that they almost never have the lead.

    So if Talbot can get his shit together and a new coaching staff can have them “ready to play” (whatever that means) they should be closer to 50% goal share in the first 10 minutes. They do a nice job of putting games away that they get the lead in (save special teams) so that should be a big jump in standings points. Add in a regression to close to 100% in combined special teams for more time with a lead and more standings points and add some improvements to roster construction especially on the wings and voila.

    One of the real reasons you move Chia is because he can’t preach patience even if he is shrewd enough to want to remain patient. BriseBois can come in and state clearly that there are some nice things in place here and he’ll have the rope to wait for regression (and his roster changes) to take hold.

  68. OriginalPouzar says:

    Bank Shot:
    Oilers will be able to buy out Lucic in 2020 if he continues to slide. The angst over this contract is too much.

    For the offseason Grabner could be a good a good option for the Oilers to pursue. He has speed and he doesn’t seem to be valued around the league so he should come cheap. He can PK. Seems likegreat fit for the OIlers.

    Options to replace Letestu as 4th line center look pretty bleak. I think you would just look at a guy who is passable at ED and a plus PKer. Letestu’s PP ability was nice last year, but the Oilers should be able to fill that internally.

    A 2020 buyout would lead to a cap hit of $5.5M, $4M and $5.5M for the next 3 years (and then $500K for the next 3 years).

    The Oilers don’t have the cap space to spend on an established top 6 winger like Grabner. They need to open up cap space (likely with moving one of the $4M plus left shot D) for any material acquisition and, in my opinion, that cap space should be used on the right side of the defence.

    Just say no to committing term to a top 6 winger!

  69. Georges says:

    Kinger_Oil.redux: – Last year, team PDO was 9th: 100.9

    – This year, team PDO is 2nd worst: 97.5

    – Last year, team CF% was 11th, @ 50.4%

    – This year, team CF% way better: 4rth in league @ 52.2%

    We can parse this any way: yeah but scoring effects, blah blah.

    – This team is a lot better than it’s resultsWhether you blow up or tweak it, we are going to be a lot better next year.We have been very unlucky this year, along with everything else

    There was a version of kinger_oil that, in reference to Eberle, would say you can parse numbers but “actual results matter.”

    The market expectation for the team that PC put together was Stanley Cup. The same team is in the process of securing the best possible spot in the draft lottery. Would the market forgive such a large underperform? There were no significant injuries during the season. The market knew about Sekera. Nuge’s injury came when it was all but over.

    Have you had a change of heart on actual results matter? It’s hard to think of a clearer case where that adage applies.

    PIT, CHI, and LAK didn’t worry about organizational stability when those teams felt they were in a competitive window and an HC wasn’t getting the most out of their players.

    You should spend some time looking at coaching careers and the effect of coaches on team performance. It’s eye-opening. The league has a few heuristics it uses in deciding whether to retain or fire an HC. The heuristics are basic common sense. Don’t bomb. Don’t take steps back. Don’t fail in the playoffs when you have a competitive team.

    We have a situation in which the team cannot win a Cup with McLellan. Why? Because, given McLellan’s record here, the team would be betting on something that has never happened since the team expanded to 30 teams in 2000-01. Coaches imprint early.

    And you also have a situation in which this season’s performance could be so bad that any HC, even an inexperienced one, would do better next year due to regression. So, by stressing organizational stability, you’re favoring certainty of not winning a Cup with the current HC (with a not so shiny resume) for the uncertainty of winning a Cup with a new HC (with a resume that has a very important and relevant line item). I can tell you that when the probability of winning with option 1 is 0 that no other option can be worse, and nearly every other option is going to be better.

    Wasting any years in CMD’s career is an awful actual result that this town should regret. We’ve wasted 2 out of 3 under this HC. Now you want to go for 3 of 4, because, and here we come full circle, you’re parsing numbers!

    I know this feels like a gotcha and I apologize in advance for that. But I’m genuinely confused here. Again, it’s hard for me to think of a clearer case where your “actual results matter” adage applies. The HC isn’t a victim of luck. The team is a victim of the HC’s systems, tactics, and decision making. He’s a hard cap on this team and its players.

    Here’s McLellan’s out: do better than before, which this season would mean make the Finals… like he was supposed and expected to do.

    Here’s McLellan’s response: finish bottom 5, make excuses, point finger at players, get them off the roster.

    Stop me if you’ve heard this one before.

    And stop me if actual results have stopped mattering.

  70. Bank Shot says:

    godot10: From December 2016 till now, the Oilers PK has been running about 75%…from about the time they demoted Lander and Pitlick got hurt.They were hot for two months in October and November, and awful since December 2016.

    They were fine in last year’s playoffs.

  71. OriginalPouzar says:

    I can’t fathom it being a good idea to spend material cap with term on a 30 year old winger who is shooting almost 20% this year.

  72. OriginalPouzar says:

    DBO:
    Bank Shot,

    Khaira and Strome can play Letestu’s role, only better. One not talked about story line is the emergence of Strome as a solid PK option. RH centre who can PK, play decent at PP and has decent size and skill are worth a lot (see Bonino signing in Nashville who got 4 x $4.1). So $3 mill for Strome works. Have Khaira as 4th line centre who can move up if needed and you have serious centre depth.

    I have been talking about Strome’s increasing role on the PK for a month now – he’s done well since he’s started being used on the PK about a month ago.

    His overall PK stats are skewed by the 2 goal in 3 minutes of PK time he was on the ice for over the first 3 months.

    Since he’s actually been given a PK role in 2018, he’s performed well to my eye.

    In my opinion, Khaira needs to be penciled in as the 4C next year and not up the lineup.

  73. Bank Shot says:

    godot10: Because of front-loading and the large signing bonuses in Lucic’s contract, it is buyout proof.There are no significant cap savings buying out Lucic in any season.You can buy him out, he is still going to cost $4 milllion to $6 million against the cap because of the signing bonuses and front-loading and the resulting salary cap recaputre.

    OriginalPouzar: A 2020 buyout would lead to a cap hit of $5.5M, $4M and $5.5M for the next 3 years (and then $500K for the next 3 years).

    The Oilers don’t have the cap space to spend on an established top 6 winger like Grabner. They need to open up cap space (likely with moving one of the $4M plus left shot D) for any material acquisition and, in my opinion, that cap space should be used on the right side of the defence.

    Just say no to committing term to a top 6 winger!

    After the 2020 work stoppage all teams will get 1-2 get out of jail free compliance buyouts. It’s pretty much a fixture in these negotiations now.

    So don’t worry. 🙂

    I only suggested Grabner because he probably comes cheap. Like 1-2 years at $2.5 million.

    He’s more a of third line option. I don’t think GM’s will throw money at him. He hasn’t been highly sought after in his career. Too inconsistent I suppose.

    Grabner at $4 million X 5 years would be a real Mact move though. I think Chiarelli isn’t that bad when it comes to contracts.

  74. Gayfish says:

    Kinger_Oil.redux: – Last year, team PDO was 9th: 100.9

    – This year, team PDO is 2nd worst: 97.5

    – Last year, team CF% was 11th, @ 50.4%

    – This year, team CF% way better: 4rth in league @ 52.2%

    We can parse this any way: yeah but scoring effects, blah blah.

    – This team is a lot better than it’s resultsWhether you blow up or tweak it, we are going to be a lot better next year.We have been very unlucky this year, along with everything else

    PDO isn’t a magic stat that measures luck, contrary to what some say. There is sero reason it should regress to 100. It is a stat that reflects play. Oilers are shitty and thus have a shitty PDO. Or you can run the numbers and tell me the p-value of them truly being a 100 PDO team.
    *Hint not very

  75. Bank Shot says:

    Gayfish: PDO isn’t a magic stat that measures luck, contrary to what some say. There is sero reason it should regress to 100. It is a stat that reflects play. Oilers are shitty and thus have a shitty PDO. Or you can run the numbers and tell me the p-value of them truly being a 100 PDO team.
    *Hint not very

    Talbot has been solid 4 out of 5 years. Its pretty reasonable to expect a bounce back there. Thus the PDO will improve.

    Special teams will surely be much better. Teams don’t go 30/30 two years in a row. The OIlers could change nothing and they will see a big special teams boost.

    They will probably sign Dominic Moore or something and he will get all the credit for the PK boost next season. Yamamoto will get credit for turning around the PP.

    The coaches will still be morons, just like on 27 other teams around the league.

  76. godot10 says:

    Bank Shot:
    After the 2020 work stoppage all teams will get 1-2 get out of jail free compliance buyouts. It’s pretty much a fixture in these negotiations now.

    So don’t worry.

    I doubt future compliance buyouts, if allowed, will allow one to escape salary cap recapture. The cap recapture portions of the salary cap hit will probably still remain.

  77. digger50 says:

    Kinger_Oil.redux: – if next year Klef = OEL (he was last year, and he’s 4 years younger)

    – if next year Larsson back to beast mode

    – if next year Nurse = Sek (he is this year)

    – if next year Sek is able to play top-4

    – if next year Talbot isn’t sh$t

    – if next year Pool sticks with skill in his 3rd year

    – if next year PDO isn’t league worst

    – if next year PP/PK at least average

    I know sh%t:But sure: why not be the NJ/Stars/Peg/Tampa next year.

    – Teams just don’t blow the league away anymore.I think some here think we could have had a glory-Oil team.

    – A few Cups in the next 8 years is max: with lots of mediocre years as well: this is hockey today.L.A. wins cup then doesn’t make playoffs.They did this twice each.Pittsburg took years to win their 2nd Cup

    – We had a sh%t year: tweak, sh#t happens, get better, move on

    You list many reasons to keep believing here. I am on board with many.

    However, this tactic sounds like August all over again, and that was a trap.

    Yes we “should” get better but again , it’s not enough. Team needs some work. Careful, measures work by competent folks.

  78. Pink Socks says:

    RE: Lucic – he isn’t going anywhere and it’s doubtful a full compliance buyout will be a part of the next CBA negotiation. If it is, then we’re lucky.

    RE: The PK – godot10 is absolutely correct. This PK has been a mess since a lucky hot run early last year.

    RE: The PP – again, complete trash for large portions of the HC’s tenure here. Letestu was the magic last season, and this year, because planning and scouting, it didn’t work, and every adjustment made this year with strategy and personnel has been an abject failure

    RE: The GM – some very poor decisions, but I would bet a good chunk that he is not relieved of his duties this season. He built this team and it’s up to Katz & Co. to decide if it’s the roster that is flawed, or if the utilization of the players on the roster that is to blame

    RE: The HC – needs to go. Yesterday. TMac does not mesh with this team, it’s clear that the deployment of players has been a mess, and the special teams are so poor he should be fired into the sun on that alone. Not to mention I highly doubt the movement of Eberle, contract of Russell, and buyout of Pouliot were not pushed by the HC.

  79. Pink Socks says:

    Georges,

    Thank you, excellent post.

  80. Kinger_Oil.redux says:

    Georges,

    – Hey I might not have said it there, but I’ve said that actual results matter most elsewhere today.

    – Things change quickly in this league: you have made compelling reasons to punt the coach in a number of posts. History isn’t on Coach’s side.

    – I have no doubt Chia would fire coach if he was in charge.

    – This has been a lot of suckage for sure. I wasn’t advocating firing coach after the first year, nor was I now: but the writing is on the wall. The safest thing to do would be to fire the coach

    * Also George my bias against firing this coach now (while I was a huge advocate of firing MacT, called out Dallas on day one much to the dismay of many here), is that I don’t believe McL is an idiot. I think one day he will have to win a Cup, and he’s on a short lease

    – I work in the Capital Markets world: the variance and lack of control in the markets is somewhat similar to Hockey. I’ve had experience with organizations that fire management when actual results matter (i.e. the market sucks), and I’ve been with organizations that have continuity.

    – I-Bankers have monster revenue years when their sector is hot. Then the next year when Gold is out and Bio-tech is in, the same Banker, with the same skills: his numbers suck. Bad organizations fire the guy whose sector gets cold, then panics when they don’t have depth as that market re-emerges. Then you don’t have a group of management that has been through good and bad times together and trust each other.

    – I think McL is a good coach, well-respected, knows how to win, knows how to coach talent, has some warts as all coaches do. His U-23 NA team was awesome. I can’t dismiss last year as a fail as you do (with Sek they win game 7), nor can I ignore that data and bad luck from this year

    – They need to be better full-stop

    – I agree with a lot of what you say, but I’m not as comfortable with seperating the variance from the actual results as you are. And sure that might be cherry-picking, but McL didn’t suddenly become a mediocre or worse coach. Talbot sucks, sh% sucks, flu, regression, Sek/Klef/Larsson injured/not 100%

    – I think that Nicholson, a prudent manager that ran an organization for a long time, he’s going to be loathe to blow it up.

  81. who says:

    Your trade scenarios in the third paragraph look great from an Oilers perspective. Because they’re totally unrealistic. No other team would agree to them.

  82. Gordies Elbow says:

    godot10: I doubt future compliance buyouts, if allowed,will allow one to escape salary cap recapture. The cap recapture portions of the salary cap hit will probably still remain.

    Why would the players want that? Buyouts become free money to the cap system.

    Why would the owners want that? Eighteen teams exercised buyouts during the last compliance period, buying out 28 players.

    To me, it sounds like it helps both sides.

  83. Kinger_Oil.redux says:

    Gayfish: PDO isn’t a magic stat that measures luck, contrary to what some say. There is sero reason it should regress to 100. It is a stat that reflects play. Oilers are shitty and thus have a shitty PDO. Or you can run the numbers and tell me the p-value of them truly being a 100 PDO team.
    *Hint not very

    – PDO isn’t my favourite stat either: funny Pitts is worste PDO this year. LAst year I think Carolina was best…But a combination of bad goalering and bad sh% over a season is toxic generally

  84. OriginalPouzar says:

    Bank Shot:
    After the 2020 work stoppage all teams will get 1-2 get out of jail free compliance buyouts. It’s pretty much a fixture in these negotiations now.

    So don’t worry.

    I only suggested Grabner because he probably comes cheap. Like 1-2 years at $2.5 million.

    He’s more a of third line option. I don’t think GM’s will throw money at him. He hasn’t been highly sought after in his career. Too inconsistent I suppose.

    Grabner at $4 million X 5 years would be a real Mact move though. I think Chiarelli isn’t that bad when it comes to contracts.

    I can’t imagine Grabner signing for 1 or 2 years or for anywhere close to $2.5M.

    Although he doesn’t put up many assists, 27 goals last year and he’ll be over 30 goals this year.

    He’s shooting 19.1% and will, in my opinion, not live up to the contract he’ll sign but I can’t imagine its going to anywhere near the suggested range.

    Goals are valued.

  85. GMB3 says:

    Kinger_Oil.redux,

    The amount of mental gymnastics…

    Good for you, it’s impressive.

    I’m not sure why we should keep the head coach though, his track record suggests coaching underachievers in the playoffs and being despised by his former players.

  86. OmJo says:

    Andy Dufresne:
    Ottawa signaling they want to package Ryan in the Karlsson deal makes teams like Pheonix the front runners in the Karlsson sweepstakes. Low cap team with with assets and a history of taking on bad contracts in return for skill.

    If they don’t trade OEL for him, they’d have the best top pairing in the league.

  87. Side says:

    GMB3:
    Kinger_Oil.redux,

    I’m not sure why we should keep the head coach though, his track record suggests coaching underachievers in the playoffs and being despised by his former players.

    Did I miss a bunch of interviews or quotes from former players saying they despised Todd?

    Last I recall is Big Joe making a comment about Todd not talking to “this family” (referring to the team) when Todd was making the decision on whether he should stay with SJS or not. Which definitely does not give me the “despise” feel that a lot of people reference to.

  88. OmJo says:

    knighttown:
    I agree that goals against has been a bigger issue than goals for however, versus potential, here’s your counter:

    – we have 1 winger in double digits in goals (Maroon 14)
    – our leading goal scorer on the wing is soon to have 9 goals (Luc, Pooj)
    – the lowest leading winger goal scorer I can find in the NHL is Perlini and Josh Anderson with 17…9 will be #1 with a bullet

    9 goals will get you in a tie for 125th in winger goal scoring.62 top line wingers, 62 2nd line wingers…that equals 124.

    So at 125th we have only 3rd line wingers and lower.This is why I don’t get the vitriol over giving Slepy or Caggs top line minutes.Whomever plays with McDavid is 2 lines ahead (at least) of where they deserve to be.

    That’s just depressing.

  89. OmJo says:

    OriginalPouzar:
    I can’t fathom it being a good idea to spend material cap with term on a 30 year old winger who is shooting almost 20% this year.

    The Grabner contract is just a disaster in the making. I’d stay away from him at all costs.

  90. Professor Q says:

    Side: Did I miss a bunch of interviews or quotes from former players saying they despised Todd?

    Last I recall is Big Joe making a comment about Todd not talking to “this family” (referring to the team) when Todd was making the decision on whether he should stay with SJS or not. Which definitely does not give me the “despise” feel that a lot of people reference to.

    Big Joe really hated Todd when he stripped him of the Captaincy without speaking to the team, if I remember correctly.

  91. Confused says:

    Suggest people read the NJ.com article not the journal comments on the Taylor Hall article.

  92. Bank Shot says:

    OriginalPouzar: I can’t imagine Grabner signing for 1 or 2 years or for anywhere close to $2.5M.

    Although he doesn’t put up many assists, 27 goals last year and he’ll be over 30 goals this year.

    He’s shooting 19.1% and will, in my opinion, not live up to the contract he’ll sign but I can’t imagine its going to anywhere near the suggested range.

    Goals are valued.

    Probably wishful thinking. I could definitely see him as a guy sitting around in late August when no one calls though.

  93. Bank Shot says:

    godot10: I doubt future compliance buyouts, if allowed,will allow one to escape salary cap recapture. The cap recapture portions of the salary cap hit will probably still remain.

    Why would you doubt it?

    Last lockout included it.

    Players win. Owners win.

    Who is going to oppose compliance buyouts?

  94. Gerta Rauss says:

    Professor Q: Big Joe really hated Todd when he stripped him of the Captaincy without speaking to the team, if I remember correctly.

    I think Thornton’s most pointed comments were directed at GM Doug Wilson

    http://www.sportsnet.ca/hockey/nhl/joe-thornton-doug-wilson-shut-mouth-captaincy-san-jose-sharks-season-ticket-holders/

  95. Side says:

    Professor Q: Big Joe really hated Todd when he stripped him of the Captaincy without speaking to the team, if I remember correctly.

    Didn’t Doug Wilson play a big part in stripping Joe’s ‘C’ since he was talking about restructuring the leadership and culture

    “Wilson prefaced his remarks by saying he is a huge Thornton fan.
    “He cares about the game so much. The reason we took the ‘C’ off him … Joe carries the weight of the team on his shoulders, and he’s got such a big heart that when stress comes on him, he lashes out at people,” Wilson said, “and it kind of impacts them.
    “The pressure and stress, I felt, was getting to Joe,” the general manager said. “And I sat him down and said we need other players to step up and share this. He got it. He didn’t like it, but he got it and he understood it.”

    Seems like it’s more Wilson’s decision then Todd’s.

    Still not seeing where former players “despise” Todd though.

  96. GMB3 says:

    Side: Did I miss a bunch of interviews or quotes from former players saying they despised Todd?

    Last I recall is Big Joe making a comment about Todd not talking to “this family” (referring to the team) when Todd was making the decision on whether he should stay with SJS or not. Which definitely does not give me the “despise” feel that a lot of people reference to.

    If you actually watched any interviews from SJS players at the time, you can infer from his tone of voice how he felt about The Toddler.

    Maybe despise is too strong of a word, but I just thought with “big time coaching Kinger Oil” hyperbole was the method of choice

  97. Kinger_Oil.redux says:

    GMB3:
    Kinger_Oil.redux,

    The amount of mental gymnastics…

    Good for you, it’s impressive.

    I’m not sure why we should keep the head coach though, his track record suggests coaching underachievers in the playoffs and being despised by his former players.

    – I’ve noticed your basically always a jerk in response to me: try harder to be measured. Difference of opinions is what makes this place great, not being a prick (well except WG-joking!)

    – Our coach: he rose through the ranks: worked with Babcock, had a long tenure with SJ, didn’t win a Cup, but had some great seasons. He coached Team Canada to a championship, was an awesome coach for the U23 NA team. Was a Sek injury away from the semis

    – So yeah, I get why coach might be fired, but I get why they might not fire him, given his long track record. He also beat his old team in the playoffs: you know that team that it was his fault they never won series in the playoffs.

    – This has been an absolute awful year of coaching and results. If he didn’t have a track record of success that he had, he’d be on even shakier ground.

    – And yes, this team had a lot of games this year where they imposed their will, and played great. More of that team please. Less of the score on first shot and be srambling and sh$t special teams

  98. Professor Q says:

    Side,

    That was just from my memory. ‘Twas quite a while ago. I thought there was trouble there with the team and Todd had hinted at it occurring months before it happened (which would obviously feel like a shock). Sharks fans felt he was underappreciated and possibly on the verge of being traded.

    It was part of Wilson and McLellan’s Culture Rebrand & Rebuild.

    “It could be, and maybe we have the right people,” McLellan said. “It’s an interesting theory.”

    Asked if that’s something he would consider, McLellan said: “I don’t know. We shouldn’t have to broadcast to the hockey world that these are our captains and assistants and our leaders. What if nobody wore it and we went out and had our team? Would certain guys step up? Does it matter to have that ‘C’ and ‘A’ on? Maybe that’s what we’re looking for.”

    McLellan added that he believed the best leaders have the best followers.

    “Now, the leader convinces the followers and that type of stuff,” McLellan said. “But when the leader’s not around, what are the followers doing? The general in the army that people talk about, he’s not always in the field. He’s not always there. So what’s the secondary leadership group doing? What are the followers doing? Who’s taking charge when there’s only three people around?”

    McLellan said the captaincy would be an “organizational decision” in which the coaches participate. But he noted that when he was in the Minnesota Wild organization, coach Jacques Lemaire rotated captains.

    “The piece of felt that goes on is an indication that that’s the guy, but the character and the way people carry themselves, those are the captains,” McLellan said. “So we’ve got to get it right. Jumbo’s our captain right now, and we’ll make some decisions as we go forward.”

  99. Side says:

    GMB3: If you actually watched any interviews from SJS players at the time, you can infer from his tone of voice how he felt about The Toddler.

    Maybe despise is too strong of a word, but I just thought with “big time coaching Kinger Oil” hyperbole was the method of choice

    Ahh, we’re back to the science of body language and tone.

    Just like how Taylor Hall’s body language meant he was a loser/quitter who was a cancer that had to go. Got it.

    Hyperbole I get, but I’ve seen quite a few times on this forum how former players “hated” or “despised” Todd which seems to be fiction since there’s nothing to support it except for “tone”.

  100. OriginalPouzar says:

    Bank Shot: Probably wishful thinking. I could definitely see him as a guy sitting around in late August when no one calls though.

    So then we will sign him to a 1 year – $3M contract on the eve of the season and then a 4 X $4M NMC contract the following June……..

  101. Side says:

    Professor Q:
    Side,

    That was just from my memory. ‘Twas quite a while ago. I thought there was trouble there with the team and Todd had hinted at it occurring months before it happened (which would obviously feel like a shock). Sharks fans felt he was underappreciated and possibly on the verge of being traded.

    It was part of Wilson and McLellan’s Culture Rebrand & Rebuild.

    It’s ok, I have been informed that had I watched player interviews about Todd, I would be able to infer that all the players despised Todd based on their tone.

    My bad.

  102. Professor Q says:

    Side: It’s ok, I have been informed that had I watched player interviews about Todd, I would be able to infer that all the players despised Todd based on their tone.

    My bad.

    I don’t know if I could, to be honest. Trouble with Todd and Doug and the team maybe but hard to say the degree of trouble or conflict…

  103. Pouzar says:

    Confused:
    Suggest people read the NJ.com article not the journal comments on the Taylor Hall article.

    Talking to coaches? Meh. Overrated.

  104. Side says:

    Professor Q: I don’t know if I could, to be honest. Trouble with Todd and Doug and the team maybe but hard to say the degree of trouble or conflict…

    I would deduce that since Doug is the GM and was the one who sat down with Joe to talk about the issue and not Todd, that it was likely Doug’s decision and asked Todd how he felt about it and what his thoughts were on how they should proceed going forward. Todd probably wanted to be a good employee, so he he comes up with justifications as to how it could be done or when this kind of thing has been done before.

    But I will confirm my theory later after I watch interviews with Doug and Todd to infer their tone and body language.

  105. Professor Q says:

    Side,

    Very possible.

    However, as I’m not sure if I’m being mocked right now or not, I’m going to leave this conversation, get home from work, play some NBA 2K18, and get ready for the game.

  106. Bank Shot says:

    OriginalPouzar: So then we will sign him to a 1 year – $3M contract on the eve of the season and then a 4 X $4M NMC contract the following June……..

    I think Kris Russell has been decent this year. Certainly not a huge problem for the team.

    I’m not sure what he has to do with Grabner?

    If Russell’s play starts to slip I guess we worry about it then.

  107. Side says:

    Professor Q:
    Side,

    Very possible.

    However, as I’m not sure if I’m being mocked right now or not, I’m going to leave this conversation, get home from work, play some NBA 2K18, and get ready for the game.

    Not mocking you at all, I’m just being passive aggressive towards GMB3 in my comment as well. 🙂

    Enjoy your night!

  108. Material pocession says:

    Side: Ahh, we’re back to the science of body language and tone.

    Just like how Taylor Hall’s body language meant he was a loser/quitter who was a cancer that had to go. Got it.

    Hyperbole I get, but I’ve seen quite a few times on this forum how former players “hated” or “despised” Todd which seems to be fiction since there’s nothing to support it except for “tone”.

    It’s amazing how great some people’s memories are when they have a preconceived notion in their heads. Screw the facts; just work that narrative.

  109. Georges says:

    Kinger_Oil.redux,

    – I-Bankers have monster revenue years when their sector is hot. Then the next year when Gold is out and Bio-tech is in, the same Banker, with the same skills: his numbers suck. Bad organizations fire the guy whose sector gets cold, then panics when they don’t have depth as that market re-emerges. Then you don’t have a group of management that has been through good and bad times together and trust each other.

    I think the difference in the industries is that there’s only one winner each year in pro sports. A good year is when you win. Every other year is a bad year. So lots of bad years. Very, very, very few good years. Through the mostly bad, rarely good years, some people lose their jobs, lots of others keep theirs.

    CMD is better than anything we’ve seen in these parts for a long time. He should be able to trust the management team to recognize failure if they’re committed to winning. And, if they’re committed to winning, show to him that failure to perform to expectations will be frowned upon at all levels of the org. There are enough battles to be fought out there. No need to suffer self-inflicted wounds.

    – I think McL is a good coach, well-respected, knows how to win, knows how to coach talent, has some warts as all coaches do. His U-23 NA team was awesome. I can’t dismiss last year as a fail as you do (with Sek they win game 7), nor can I ignore that data and bad luck from this year

    He may be a good coach. But he hasn’t won when it mattered. So he’s developing a reputation. It could be his players but players, I’m guessing, are a superstitious lot. They rightly worry about a guy who preaches belief systems and then mixes lines and pairs at the first sign of trouble. This is why coaching tenures are typically short. If you get more than 3 years, you’ve earned it somehow. By achieving something with the team that the team respects. And not taking a drastic step back. Making a positive difference, Convincing your players you know how to win. Demonstrating it to them by leading them to wins when they do what you ask them to do.

    Bad luck could be a string of injuries affecting key players. Or you could read the numbers associated with losing as the random cause of losing… I guess…

    – I think that Nicholson, a prudent manager that ran an organization for a long time…

    I was going to say you could say the same about Apu Nahasapeemapetilon, but the Kwik-E-Mart is an actual for profit with actual customers and competitors. Still don’t know how Hockey Canada skills translate, unless you consider hiring your GM’s HC to be prudent managing. Seems the nature of the competition is different, in that there is, you know, actual competition now. The major constraint in Nicholson’s old job was the seating capacity of the team bus. Every seat was occupied by an all-star.

  110. Material pocession says:

    Bank Shot:

    If Russell’s play starts to slip I guess we worry about it then.

    I have it on good authority (The Hop) that Russell is going to fade badly and not lead the defence in scoring this year. Now don’t get me wrong — Russell was not my preferred choice when he was signed (and I loathe the NMC). However, he isn’t one of the main culprits in this train wreck season.

  111. OilClog says:

    You have Connor Mcdavid, 3 years. What’s the direction for year 4?

    TMac has had 3 years with him now, has any adjustments in year 3 pointed towards year 4 success?

    Has TMac figured out how to create a system that opens up lanes, gets shots in closer, win the rebound game? Anything being done this season to suggest he is?

    Oilers play the 5×5 on the outside when they have the puck and absolutely struggle to get any dirty area magic going, which is insane with the bulking forwards at his deployment.

    When they don’t have the puck they seem to be all huddled up the middle allowing the opposition to have the boards, opposition then stretches them out, opens them up, and fire away from the inside…

    The book on TMac’s systems has been out for years now, San Jose had game after game of high shot totals with no goals to go with it. Which a few Oiler backups and starters and guys off the street feasted on… Scrivens was a hero for awhile because of this.

    Todds teams being beaten by backups isn’t something new in Edmonton, I can’t see any reason to not give another head coach an opportunity with Mcdavid.

  112. Material pocession says:

    Georges,

    Kudos on your post yesterday re: Primary Points per 60. You really shot some serious holes in that theory.

  113. godot10 says:

    Material pocession: I have it on good authority (The Hop) that Russell is going to fade badly and not lead the defence in scoring this year.Now don’t get me wrong — Russell was not my preferred choice when he was signed (and I loathe the NMC).However,he isn’t one of the main culprits in this train wreck season.

    Of course Russell is one of the reasons for the train wreck this year. He was supposed to replace Sekera’s role and minutes, and be able to anchor a pairing with a young guy. That is what he got the 4-year NMC for. And he failed miserably at it.

    He is subpar unless he is being carried by Nurse, or lately by an improved Klefbom.

  114. OilClog says:

    Coaches don’t get passes for injuries, if they say “well we’re letting Todd have another go because we didn’t foresee injuries”

    Mcdavid midst well demand a trade now.

  115. OriginalPouzar says:

    Bank Shot: I think Kris Russell has been decent this year. Certainly not a huge problem for the team.

    I’m not sure what he has to do with Grabner?

    If Russell’s play starts to slip I guess we worry about it then.

    The NMC in his contract may mean that Oscar Klebom needs to be moved to open up cap space for the 1/2 RHD position (or, stupidly, a winger).

    We cannot have 4 left shot d-men making over $4M and Russell is #4 on that depth chart.

  116. godot10 says:

    OilClog:
    Coaches don’t get passes for injuries, if they say “well we’re letting Todd have another go because we didn’t foresee injuries”

    Mcdavid midst well demand a trade now.

    Philadelphia Eagles lost their starting quarterback, their starting left tackle and their starting middle linebacker. Still won the Super Bowl.

    The Patriots were without their best wide receiver, their starting right tackle, their 2nd tight end, and their linebacker (whose defensive plays were the critical plays in the last two Superbowl victories).

  117. OilClog says:

    godot10: Of course Russell is one of the reasons for the train wreck this year.He was supposed to replace Sekera’s role and minutes, and be able to anchor a pairing with a young guy.That is what he got the 4-year NMC for.

    Russell is not a reason for the train wreck, he was suppose to be himself. They banked on Benning and Nurse taking the next step, they banked on their top pair to come back and play like they were capable of.

    Russell is the exact same guy he’s always been, Benning didn’t take a step forward, top pair didn’t repeat last year.

    It’s the GM and coaching gambles that are the reason for the train wreck. Russell is advertised as billed and living up to it.

    How can he replace Sekera’s minutes when he was Sekera’s partner? By your logic it’s in fact Benning that has shit the bed. He hasn’t stepped up, hasn’t replaced minutes, and there was nobody behind him that could step up, until they lucked their way into Davidson again.

  118. VOR says:

    I know this will strike many of you as wrong. But when I was trying to develop a strategy to use as shadow GM the first step was trying to figure out how good the current team really is. I used a lot of different approaches and concluded that given average health, average officiating, average schedule, and average luck they are an 86 point team.

    If you accept this premise then to be a regular playoff contender the team needs to improve by almost 7%. But it is critical any changes make them at least 7% in 2018-2019 but drive additional improvements in future years. That made the mission to make changes at the margins that make the Oilers better immediately but have increasing impact over time.

  119. OilClog says:

    godot10: Philadelphia Eagles lost their starting quarterback, their starting left tackle and their starting middle linebacker.Still won the Super Bowl.

    The Patriots were without their best wide receiver, their starting right tackle, their 2nd tight end, and their linebacker (whose defensive plays were the critical plays in the last two Superbowl victories).

    The coaches made the proper adjustments, and the GM’s made sure there were reserves.

    Oilers coach has had Mcdavid available all year, plays games with the reserves and forces the GM’s hand to ship out underperforming talent, or talent that is perceived to be the root of the culture issues lol.

  120. Doug McLachlan says:

    Kinger_Oil.redux:
    Last year:

    – Klef had one less point than OEL and was emerging as a bona-fide all-round stud D

    – Larsson: playoffs: everyone was like” wow what a stud”, and dare say “Oh that’s why we got him”

    – Talbot: Vezina votes

    – Coach: Jack Adams votes

    – GM: GM of the year votes

    – With Sek, we win game 7, and have a good shot vs. Nashville

    – Sleppy was beast-mode in playoffs, played great, looking like a great winger

    This year, why so different?

    – Klef hurt

    – Larsson hurt

    – Talbot sh$t

    – Same coach: just not Jack Adams

    – Same GM: just not GM of year votes

    – Sek: Nurse has stepped up in his absence

    – Sleppy hurt in pre-season

    I come in peace.I hope they change up the coaching staff (keep coach, bring in some help, and Coach needs to have more games where they impose their will)Put coach on notice though

    – Draft well, make some trades, grow, learn, be likeTampa Bay or Devils or Peg or Boston or Dallas: tweak, get better, don’t blow it up…

    Thank-you.

    There are, as of today, some 7 teams in the playoffs that were outside a year ago – seven!

    Yes, the season has been a disaster but we are not so far removed from the squad that took the Ducks to 7 games and really ought to have moved on to play Nashville in the WCF. There is a good team here. As the book says – “Don’t Panic”.

  121. OilClog says:

    Doug McLachlan: Thank-you.

    There are, as of today, some 7 teams in the playoffs that were outside a year ago – seven!

    Yes, the season has been a disaster but we are not so far removed from the squad that took the Ducks to 7 games and really ought to have moved on to play Nashville in the WCF.There is a good team here.As the book says – “Don’t Panic”.

    The Oilers are far off from replacing the Skill they’ve sold off, unless they’re banking on Caggiula and the likes to develop into scoring wingers over the summer.

    And to get scoring wingers, they’ll have to sell off other talent, that they don’t have replacements for..

    This team may be 3-4 years from playoffs again if they rely on their draftees to come of age and not miss a step in their development. They need Yamo, Benson, Puju and whoever they draft this year to all pan out and become offensive dynamos..

  122. Gayfish says:

    VOR:
    I know this will strike many of you as wrong. But when I was trying to develop a strategy to use as shadow GM the first step was trying to figure out how good the current team really is. I used a lot of different approaches and concluded that given average health, average officiating, average schedule, and average luck they are an 86 point team.

    If you accept this premise then to be a regular playoff contender the team needs to improve by almost 7%. But it is critical any changes make them at least 7% in 2018-2019 but drive additional improvements in future years. That made the mission to make changes at the margins that make the Oilers better immediately but have increasing impact over time.

    Not sure how you got that number, but it sounds about right to me.

  123. Professor Q says:

    OilClog: The Oilers are far off from replacing the Skill they’ve sold off, unless they’re banking on Caggiula and the likes to develop into scoring wingers over the summer.

    And to get scoring wingers, they’ll have to sell off other talent, that they don’t have replacements for..

    This team may be 3-4 years from playoffs again if they rely on their draftees to come of age and not miss a step in their development. They need Yamo, Benson, Puju and whoever they draft this year to all pan out and become offensive dynamos..

    To be honest, no one knows.

    Playoff teams this year could have Oilers issues next year and/or the next and do poorly and Edmonton could improve to average and get in, and then who knows what could occur in playoffs?

    Maybe their picks this year are impactful quicker, and maybe Yamo and Benson and others in the AHL do well with call-ups.

    They could do well next year or in 2 years or sure, take 3-4 years to get back to last year’s playing status.

    McDavid could go Super Nova (sorry for the cliché) and will them into the playoffs with a 125 point performance.

    I know people look at the standings and say Edmonton needs to improve winning percentage by a certain amount, to get into the playoffs next year etc., but rarely do they account for the playoff teams slowing down and winning less etc. Usually they project them to maintain their same points pace as the current study. It all counts and accumulates and affects the point gain and loss.

  124. GMB3 says:

    Side: It’s ok, I have been informed that had I watched player interviews about Todd, I would be able to infer that all the players despised Todd based on their tone.

    My bad.

    I mean hockey players tend to play things pretty close to absolute silence, this isn’t the NBA or the NFL so the fact anything was said at all is telling. When you get shit on to the media by Joe Thornton, a future HHOFer, nothing is wrong at all.

    Enjoy the fantasy land where the Oilers finish in the lottery in 2 outta 3 years but everything’s okay.

  125. Jordan says:

    Andy Dufresne:
    File this under the topic Crazy Innovation.

    Centers for next year.

    Draisaitl
    Nuge
    Strome
    Kharia

    McDavid plays role of Rover.He plays 24 to 28 minutes per game and moves around the lineup. (mainly some mix of the top three lines) Whatever line you put him on, that center automatically moves to the wing.Make it literallly impossible for opposing coach to line match.

    Its like Virtual 3D Unicorns.

    Lets take the term McBlender to a whole new level.

    I don’t know if I like all the players you list, but I love the idea. Very creative way of creating match-up problems for other teams.

  126. Side says:

    GMB3: I mean hockey players tend to play things pretty close to absolute silence, this isn’t the NBA or the NFL so the fact anything was said at all is telling. When you get shit on to the media by Joe Thornton, a future HHOFer, nothing is wrong at all.

    Enjoy the fantasy land where the Oilers finish in the lottery in 2 outta 3 years but everything’s okay.

    Interviews and quotes please. Sounds like you’re going off of memory here and no offense, but someone who refers to “Todd” as “Toddler” may have a negative bias.

    Now lets fondly recall all of the “telling” things about Seguin, Kessel and Hall that was proof that they were “cancers”.

    I’m not pretending everything is ok with the team. I just don’t buy “tone” as a reason to come up with some conclusion that “all former players despise” Todd. It’s absurd and shows that one of us isliving in a fantasy land of some sort and it’s not me.

  127. OriginalPouzar says:

    OilClog: Russell is not a reason for the train wreck, he was suppose to be himself. They banked on Benning and Nurse taking the next step, they banked on their top pair to come back and play like they were capable of.

    Russell is the exact same guy he’s always been, Benning didn’t take a step forward, top pair didn’t repeat last year.

    It’s the GM and coaching gambles that are the reason for the train wreck. Russell is advertised as billed and living up to it.

    How can he replace Sekera’s minutes when he was Sekera’s partner? By your logic it’s in fact Benning that has shit the bed. He hasn’t stepped up, hasn’t replaced minutes, and there was nobody behind him that could step up, until they lucked their way into Davidson again.

    Russell isn’t a reason for the train wreck – that is true, however, at the same time, his contract is a big issue starting next year and that was 100% foreseeable (too much for too long with trade protection and very likely to fall down the depth chart) and very well could lead to having to trade Klefbom for cap space.

  128. GMB3 says:

    Material pocession: It’s amazing how great some people’s memories are when they have a preconceived notion in their heads.Screw the facts;just work that narrative.

    The facts are two of his former players both said their was trouble in the room and it started from the top down. The facts are he had an extremely talented team in San Jose and couldn’t get them to the cup final. Year after he is gone, Peter Deboer takes them there.

    Those are facts.

    Look at his post game interviews throughout the year. Doesn’t take a ton of accountability, shirks responsibility on to the players shoulders. Now this is straying from fact to opinion, but everything I’ve learned from sports psychologists I’ve worked with and the leadership and coaching classes I took in Uni generally say that isn’t the best approach. Again in my opinion, I don’t think that’s a good approach with a youg and clearly fragile team.

    Different sport, and not at a professional level, but former U of Texas head baseball coach Augie Garrido is pretty widely respected and won a ton. Here’s a video of him talking about his responsibility as a coach.

    https://m.youtube.com/watch?v=Is6xa3UlTYs

  129. Connoreah says:

    “Just in Edmonton, I really didn’t want to talk to coaches. I didn’t really want to have dialogue with coaches. I just wanted to play.”

    So, thoughts? I mean, we can all agree that Hall is a great talent, a very skilled young man, but obviously if you take his own words at face value, the trade seems a little less puzzling.

    Combine Hall’s quote with that of his HC in Jersey who says Hall needed to work on his leadership skills, and I think we have at least some proof that there was a problem. Not saying it justifies a trade, just saying there was obviously an ego issue in the locker room pre-trade. Anyone that has played on a competitive team can appreciate why this would matter.

  130. GMB3 says:

    Side: Interviews and quotes please.Sounds like you’re going off of memory here and no offense, but someone who refers to “Todd” as “Toddler” may have a negative bias.

    Now lets fondly recall all of the “telling” things about Seguin, Kessel and Hall that was proof that they were “cancers”.

    I’m not pretending everything is ok with the team. I just don’t buy “tone” as a reason to come up with some conclusion that “all former players despise” Todd. It’s absurd and shows that one of us isliving in a fantasy land of some sort and it’s not me.

    Well my conclusion goes beyond tone. I’m at work, I’ve posted the link to the article and video of couture and Thornton talking about Todd before.

    Interesting aside about Taylor Hall, in Friedmans last podcast he talks about how he wouldn’t write any negative statements about former teammates unless he player was willing to put his name beside it. Friedmans talks about surprisingly Subban didn’t have many former teammates willing to say anything negative comparatively about him.

  131. GMB3 says:

    Did any players come out and say anything negative about Eakins after his tenure?

  132. godot10 says:

    Doug McLachlan: Thank-you.

    There are, as of today, some 7 teams in the playoffs that were outside a year ago – seven!

    Yes, the season has been a disaster but we are not so far removed from the squad that took the Ducks to 7 games and really ought to have moved on to play Nashville in the WCF.There is a good team here.As the book says – “Don’t Panic”.

    None of those other playoff teams from last year (apart from Ottawa) has stepped into the elevator shaft like the Oilers. Ottawa has poor decision-making from the owner as the main cause.

  133. Professor Q says:

    GMB3:
    Did any players come out and say anything negative about Eakins after his tenure?

    I think that happened during, and after, non?

  134. Side says:

    GMB3: Well my conclusion goes beyond tone. I’m at work, I’ve posted the link to the article and video of couture and Thornton talking about Todd before.

    Interesting aside about Taylor Hall, in Friedmans last podcast he talks about how he wouldn’t write any negative statements about former teammates unless he player was willing to put his name beside it. Friedmans talks about surprisingly Subban didn’t have many former teammates willing to say anything negative comparatively about him.

    You talked about it coming from “top down”, which it would. Doug Wilson looks to be the one who is responsible for the “leadership and culture” restructure and he was the one who sat down with Joe. And Joe said Doug should “shut his mouth”. Now I would say there’s more evidence here to say that Joe “despised” Doug, although they say they buried the hatchet.

    And a video with Thornton and Couture only where they may have had a tone suggests Todd’s “former players despise him”?

    I feel like some leaps are being made here.

  135. Professor Q says:

    godot10: None of those other playoff teams from last year (apart from Ottawa) has stepped into the elevator shaft like the Oilers. Ottawa has poor decision-making from the owner as the main cause.

    Pittsburgh was close to doing poorly like Edmonton until recently (though they have 2 recent Cups, Edmonton does not, blah, blah). In contrast, the Avs had a surprisingly terrible year last season from all fronts and are doing well this year. Same with New Jersey.

    Edmonton could just as well turn it around like them next season.

  136. Side says:

    GMB3:
    Did any players come out and say anything negative about Eakins after his tenure?

    I don’t recall.

    Does that mean we come to the conclusion all players despised Eakins?

    Does this mean all of Eakins former players that he has coached leading up to this point despised him as well?

  137. Georges says:

    knighttown:
    I agree that goals against has been a bigger issue than goals for however, versus potential, here’s your counter:

    – we have 1 winger in double digits in goals (Maroon 14)
    – our leading goal scorer on the wing is soon to have 9 goals (Luc, Pooj)
    – the lowest leading winger goal scorer I can find in the NHL is Perlini and Josh Anderson with 17…9 will be #1 with a bullet

    9 goals will get you in a tie for 125th in winger goal scoring.62 top line wingers, 62 2nd line wingers…that equals 124.

    So at 125th we have only 3rd line wingers and lower.This is why I don’t get the vitriol over giving Slepy or Caggs top line minutes.Whomever plays with McDavid is 2 lines ahead (at least) of where they deserve to be.

    Two things:

    1. Drai has played a lot of RW.

    2. On “deserve to be”: It’s generally true that a forward has to score to survive. I’m just not sure about setting the ceiling for all of our depth players based on the current context. We could be seeing who they are and what they “deserve” or maybe we’re seeing a shadow of the same. VGK has two forwards on its roster who scored 20 or more goals last season. So lots of closer to 3rd line or lower types. It looks like they may have 6 forwards get 20 or more this season. 4 are already there. Slepy, has scored interesting, skilled goals the few times he’s scored. But he’s never had a home in any part of the lineup. Same, to a lesser extent, for the others. It’s harder for me, and I think others who support the depth players perhaps a little more than you do, to dismiss them based on poor performance to date.

  138. Doug McLachlan says:

    godot10,

    I would say the Habs have a bit of an elevator shaft issue as well, though I anticipate you correctly pointing out that they have had similar management issues to the Oilers (bad trades, bad contracts, bad bets, bad times).

  139. Bling says:

    I want to know why Todd McLellan is so insistent on playing Caggiula over Puljujarvi.

    This season, (DC first, JP second):

    EV points per 60 (1.16, 1.48)
    EV primary points per 60 (1.04, 1.36)
    CF% (48.2, 52.5)
    GF% (38.5, 51.2)
    Shots/game (1.6, 2.4)

    This is not even a question of development — JP is, by eye and by the numbers, a far superior player at age 19.

    Caggs is a 4th liner. We have almost two seasons of data on him, and the book is written.

    No reason, IMO, for him to be getting 14-15 minutes of ice per game, which is what has been happening for the past few games.

  140. --hudson-- says:

    GMB3: The facts are two of his former players both said their was trouble in the room and it started from the top down. The facts are he had an extremely talented team in San Jose and couldn’t get them to the cup final. Year after he is gone, Peter Deboer takes them there.

    Those are facts.

    Look at his post game interviews throughout the year. Doesn’t take a ton of accountability, shirks responsibility on to the players shoulders. Now this is straying from fact to opinion, but everything I’ve learned from sports psychologists I’ve worked with and the leadership and coaching classes I took in Uni generally say that isn’t the best approach. Again in my opinion, I don’t think that’s a good approach with a youg and clearly fragile team.

    Different sport, and not at a professional level, but former U of Texas head baseball coach Augie Garrido is pretty widely respected and won a ton. Here’s a video of him talking about his responsibility as a coach.

    https://m.youtube.com/watch?v=Is6xa3UlTYs

    Both Brent Burns and Mikko Koivu (AHL) say McLellan is one of the best coaches they’ve ever had. So it is not a universal truth that players do not like Todd.

    “Todd McLellan was in charge at the time. His influence on me, not only as a player, but also as a person, has been invaluable.”
    https://www.theplayerstribune.com/mikko-koivu-minnesota-wild-finland-nhl/

  141. Mike Wazowski says:

    godot10: Philadelphia Eagles lost their starting quarterback, their starting left tackle and their starting middle linebacker.Still won the Super Bowl.

    The Patriots were without their best wide receiver, their starting right tackle, their 2nd tight end, and their linebacker (whose defensive plays were the critical plays in the last two Superbowl victories).

    Do you have a hockey example rather than a football one to compare apples-to-apples?

    Hockey and football are two very different sports. Especially since a football season is much shorter. It’s much easier for a backup player to perform well in a shorter season without seeing the lag that you would in a longer hockey season.

  142. OilClog says:

    OriginalPouzar: Russell isn’t a reason for the train wreck – that is true, however, at the same time, his contract is a big issue starting next year and that was 100% foreseeable (too much for too long with trade protection and very likely to fall down the depth chart) and very well could lead to having to trade Klefbom for cap space.

    Ok, that’s two different arguments that have nothing to do with eachother.

    His play isn’t a reason things are a train wreck but the management’s decision to pay him is definitely a train wreck.

    Not only are they probably selling Klef for 10 cents, they sold Eberle to clear space to create space..

    It’s incredible how many fires this organization has to put out created by their own hands.

  143. OilClog says:

    I was calling Caggiula, Liam Reddox 2.0 from day 1, it’s nice to see that he’s a 4th line wing that can’t score and take the occasional draw with some spirited energy here and there… just like Liam was lol.

  144. Pouzar says:

    Bling: Caggs is a 4th liner. We have almost two seasons of data on him, and the book is written.

    But he hits I tells ya!

    EDIT: And he chose us!!!!

  145. russ99 says:

    We can’t repeat the mistakes of last year with kids/retreads filling important NHL roles.

    Getting our defense fixed would be worth abandoning the 3 scoring lines ideal.

    It’s a lot easier in the summer to fill 2-3 spots in the top 6 with McDavid and Leon, with a more fit Lucic and an older camp-ready Puljujarvi being possibilities too.

    Then fill in the bottom six with your question marks, cheap veterans, role players and kids.

    Giving up on the playoffs to continue to chase rebuild dreams or keep favored players should be a non-starter, no matter who the GM or coach is.

  146. Doug McLachlan says:

    Bling,

    I would assume that Caggiula is getting the prime ice-time because he may be someone who could be dealt, same as with Cammalleri.

    The “development” emphasis will come post-deadline.

    Cups of coffee for Ty Rattie – who really has done as much as anyone could have asked him to do down on the farm – and Ethan Bear.

  147. Bag of Pucks says:

    I’m not sure I buy the argument that just because we have a generational talent in Connor McDavid, the system the team plays has to be an offense first system.

    Connor’s greatest strength is his speed. That attribute along with his stellar conditioning translates just as effectively into being a dominant defensive force as it does being an offensive force. Personally, I think Connor’s capable of being the most dominant 200ft player in history. And much like Cup success didn’t come for Yzerman until he rounded out his game away from an offense led approach to becoming one of the best two way forwards of his generation, the same could happen for McDavid.

    As currently built, this roster is better equipped to play a dominant defensive game and we saw that in the results last season when Talbot, Klefbom, and Larsson were all having considerably stronger seasons.

    Pittsburgh has won the last 2 Cups with speed, offense and good goaltending, so as with most sports leagues, these things get widely imitated and this becomes the ‘must have’ formula. But these things are cyclical and rather than chasing trends, a team is far better suited to implement a system that maximizes their player talents and roster construction as opposed to chasing a trend.

    The basic objective has to be to cobble together two 5 man units that can play tough opps and consistently outscore. Sather’s Oilers did that with run and gun. But that doesn’t have the be the case here. They could do it with exceptional two way play or even dominant defensive play counterbalanced by a counterstrike offensive that maximizes quick transition off turnovers to generate HDSCs.

  148. OilClog says:

    russ99:
    We can’t repeat the mistakes of last year with kids/retreads filling important NHL roles.

    Getting our defense fixed would be worth abandoning the 3 scoring lines ideal.

    It’s a lot easier in the summer to fill 2-3 spots in the top 6 with McDavid and Leon, with a more fit Lucic and an older camp-ready Puljujarvi being possibilities too.

    Then fill in the bottom six with your question marks, cheap veterans, role players and kids.

    Giving up on the playoffs to continue to chase rebuild dreams or keep favored players should be a non-starter, no matter who the GM or coach is.

    Is it easier? Mcdavid isn’t miraculously turning any of the guys filling in the 2-3 spots now into scoring wingers.

    You actually have to be a scoring winger to be a scoring winger regardless of who’s your center.

    For years the Oilers had wings that could score with no one to give them the puck, the Oilers now have Centers that can dish the puck but no one that can convert the dishes.

    I don’t think anything is easy for the Oilers management other then chasing their own tail.

    This team isn’t being saved by free agency

  149. OilClog says:

    Doug McLachlan:
    Bling,

    I would assume that Caggiula is getting the prime ice-time because he may be someone who could be dealt, same as with Cammalleri.

    The “development” emphasis will come post-deadline.

    Cups of coffee for Ty Rattie – who really has done as much as anyone could have asked him to do down on the farm – and Ethan Bear.

    This would be a sweet assumption if since day 1 Drake hasn’t been receiving gift after gift.. if they’re showcasing him it’s been nearly 2 years of showcase.

  150. OilClog says:

    Bag of Pucks:
    I’m not sure I buy the argument that just because we have a generational talent in Connor McDavid, the system the team plays has to be an offense first system.

    Connor’s greatest strength is his speed. That attribute along with his stellar conditioning translates just as effectively into being a dominant defensive force as it does being an offensive force. Personally, I think Connor’s capable of being the most dominant 200ft player in history. And much like Cup success didn’t come for Yzerman until he rounded out his game away from an offense led approach to becoming one of the best two way forwards of his generation, the same could happen for McDavid.

    As currently built, this roster is better equipped to play a dominant defensive game and we saw that in the results last season when Talbot, Klefbom, and Larsson were all having considerably stronger seasons.

    Pittsburgh has won the last 2 Cups with speed, offense and good goaltending, so as with most sports leagues, these things get widely imitated and this becomes the ‘must have’ formula. But these things are cyclical and rather than chasing trends, a team is far better suited to implement a system that maximizes their player talents and roster construction as opposed to chasing a trend.

    The basic objective has to be to cobble together two 5 man units that can play tough opps and consistently outscore. Sather’s Oilers did that with run and gun. But that doesn’t have the be the case here. They could do it with exceptional two way play or even dominant defensive play counterbalanced by a counterstrike offensive that maximizes quick transition off turnovers to generate HDSCs.

    When Mcdavid gets a Federov, Lindstrom, Shanahan… well… nevermind

  151. Mike Wazowski says:

    OilClog:

    The book on TMac’s systems has been out for years now, San Jose had game after game of high shot totals with no goals to go with it.

    Not sure where this opinion comes from. I compared the Hawks goal totals to the Sharks over the period of McLellan’s coaching tenure and the Hawks, with a good offence, only scored between 4 and 20 goals more except for the lockout season. Over the course of a season that’s not a huge difference.

    SJ CHI Diff
    251 264 13
    264 271 7
    248 258 10
    228 248 20
    124* 155* 31
    249 267 18
    228 229 1

    *lockout year

  152. GMB3 says:

    Side: You talked about it coming from “top down”, which it would. Doug Wilson looks to be the one who is responsible for the “leadership and culture” restructure and he was the one who sat down with Joe.And Joe said Doug should “shut his mouth”. Now I would say there’s more evidence here to say that Joe “despised” Doug, although they say they buried the hatchet.

    And a video with Thornton and Couture only where they may have had a tone suggests Todd’s “former players despise him”?

    I feel like some leaps are being made here.

    Only may have had tone? Like I said despise was hyperbole. Like over an hour ago. In response to “big time coaching” Kinger.. Joe Thornton directly referenced how his coach should talk to his family in the room too… this has been posted here more than once. McLellan couldn’t get them to the cup finals and one year after his departure they finally make it there.

    This has been fun.

  153. GMB3 says:

    Side: I don’t recall.

    Does that mean we come to the conclusion all players despised Eakins?

    Does this mean all of Eakins former players that he has coached leading up to this point despised him as well?

    Do you jump in to defend Eakins when people call him the dementor or lament his tenure as our head coach?

    Brandon Montour had a quote about how great of a coach Eakins was to him in San Diego, yet it’s acceptable to rip Eakins here.

    Sorry for the lighthanded use of the word despised. Like I said in my following post after it, it was hyperbole. Despite this it seems to be the only ammunition you really have against what I said. Once again people love to bring up narrative vs fact on this blog and the facts are two of his former players spoke out against him after a season where they first really faced adversity. They immediately improved upon getting a new coach.

  154. OriginalPouzar says:

    OilClog: Ok, that’s two different arguments that have nothing to do with eachother.

    His play isn’t a reason things are a train wreck but the management’s decision to pay him is definitely a train wreck.

    Not only are they probably selling Klef for 10 cents, they sold Eberle to clear space to create space..

    It’s incredible how many fires this organization has to put out created by their own hands.

    Well, yes, I was not deriding Russell and was taking a little jab at management.

    I made a harmless little quip about signing Grabner to a 1 X $3M deal in October and then a 4 X $4M in June in response to a poster saying they could see Grabner sitting at home until then without a contract.

    Apparently the post was misinterpreted as Bank Shot and Material Posession came running to defend Russell and how he hasn’t been the problem this season.

    I agreed with that and was stating that his contract is an issue starting this coming year – again, speaking towards management, not the player.

    It is exhausting having to defend myself against things I never said or implied.

  155. thehop says:

    Material pocession,

    I am now an authority on all things Kris Rustle.

    He said it… Not me.

    I bet you a steak dinner that he doesn’t end up being the leading scorer on d. You didn’t respond which is too bad. I legitimately would have bought you a Ruth’s Chris beef orgasm had you taken me up on the bet.

    Time will tell.

    I feel good about my opinion and assertion.

  156. Bank Shot says:

    OilClog: This would be a sweet assumption if since day 1 Drake hasn’t been receiving gift after gift.. if they’re showcasing him it’s been nearly 2 years of showcase.

    He probably gets the icetime because he listens to the coach, gives maximum effort on every shift, plays an honest game, and is young enough to improve.

    Never count out the big brain players.

  157. Material pocession says:

    GMB3: Only may have had tone? Like I said despise was hyperbole. Like over an hour ago. In response to “big time coaching” Kinger.. Joe Thornton directly referenced how his coach should talk to his family in the room too… this has been posted here more than once. McLellan couldn’t get them to the cup finals and one year after his departure they finally make it there.

    This has been fun.

    How much does that have to do with McLellan and Deboer, really? Seems more likely that Martin Jones, Jonathan Quick, etc, had more to do with that.

  158. Material pocession says:

    Pete DeBoer didn’t exactly light it up in Florida and New Jersey before his magical run in San Jose. Maybe he wasn’t the reason they made it to the Cup final.

  159. Wilde says:

    Bling:
    I want to know why Todd McLellan is so insistent on playing Caggiula over Puljujarvi.

    This season, (DC first, JP second):

    EV points per 60 (1.16, 1.48)
    EV primary points per 60 (1.04, 1.36)
    CF% (48.2, 52.5)
    GF% (38.5, 51.2)
    Shots/game (1.6, 2.4)

    This is not even a question of development — JP is, by eye and by the numbers, a far superior player at age 19.

    Caggs is a 4th liner. We have almost two seasons of data on him, and the book is written.

    No reason, IMO, for him to be getting 14-15 minutes of ice per game, which is what has been happening for the past few games.

    Why hasn’t Todd done x?

    Because he hasn’t.

    Analytics that.

  160. Bank Shot says:

    Puljujarvi gets more even strength ice time than Caggiula. What are we complaining about?

    Should we glue Puljujarvi to McDavid so that we can artificially raise his next contract through the roof?

  161. Material pocession says:

    thehop:
    Material pocession,

    I am now an authority on all things Kris Rustle.

    He said it… Not me.

    I bet you a steak dinner that he doesn’t end up being the leading scorer on d. You didn’t respond which is too bad. I legitimately would have bought you a Ruth’s Chris beef orgasm had you taken me up on the bet.

    Time will tell.

    I feel good about my opinion and assertion.

    Okay I’ll take that bet (season ending injury notwithstanding).

  162. Material pocession says:

    Bank Shot:
    Puljujarvi gets more even strength ice time than Caggiula. What are we complaining about?

    Should we glue Puljujarvi to McDavid so that we can artificially raise his next contract through the roof?

    I’d send JP back to the minors to re-establish his game. Coach doesn’t seem to trust him and is hardly playing him anyway.

  163. Kinger_Oil.redux says:

    godot10: Fleury played a lot in the playoffs last year.

    – he was the reason they didn’t win more cups IMO. Look at his sv percentage in playoffs.

    – teams were great in regular season. Even with concussed Crosby.

    – they changed coaches and the new goalie played better in playoffs

  164. Bank Shot says:

    Material pocession: I’d send JP back to the minors to re-establish his game.Coach doesn’t seem to trust him and is hardly playing him anyway.

    I’m not against that. Its been 4-5 games of lower icetime. If Puljujarvi doesn’t find a way to respond he may well end up being sent down.

  165. Bling says:

    Bank Shot:
    Puljujarvi gets more even strength ice time than Caggiula. What are we complaining about?

    Should we glue Puljujarvi to McDavid so that we can artificially raise his next contract through the roof?

    TOI/game for JP this season is 13:54, versus 13:48 for DC (this is total TOI).

    However, look at the TOI for the last 3 games (JP, DC):

    (8:22, 14:54)
    (9:45, 14:55)
    (13:55, 15:48)

    Drake’s average TOI in February: 14:34
    JP’s average TOI in February: 12:54

    JP was producing at a high-end second line/low-end first line rate as a 19 year old, and so McLellan responds by cutting his ice-time to that of a 4th liner?

    Drake has produced like a low-end 4th liner for two seasons, so he gets the ice-time of a 2nd liner?

    In terms of artificially raising JP’s next contract, I think such talk is premature and framing this debate in a very negative way. Why not put a player who has performed exceedingly well in limited minutes in a position to succeed? If he succeeds in such a scenario, on what planet is that a bad thing?

    He should not ride shot-gun with McDavid or Draisaitl because he is a former 4th overall pick; he should do so because he is already one of the best wingers on the team and because doing so will help us win games right now.

  166. Bling says:

    Doug McLachlan:
    Bling,

    I would assume that Caggiula is getting the prime ice-time because he may be someone who could be dealt, same as with Cammalleri.

    The “development” emphasis will come post-deadline.

    Cups of coffee for Ty Rattie – who really has done as much as anyone could have asked him to do down on the farm – and Ethan Bear.

    In today’s big-data age, there is no reason to showcase anyone.

    Drake is what he is. McLellan/Chia are not fooling anyone into thinking there is upside with Caggs by bumping his minutes after two seasons of producing like a 4th liner at evens.

  167. Bling says:

    Bank Shot: He probably gets the icetime because he listens to the coach, gives maximum effort on every shift, plays an honest game, and is young enough to improve.

    Never count out the big brain players.

    That’s all wonderful.

    I would prefer that they do things that maximize the probability of winning hockey games.

    I know that it hasn’t been a priority for 10+ years, but we ought to start somewhere. That goes for fans and management, IMO.

  168. Pouzar says:

    Bank Shot:
    Puljujarvi gets more even strength ice time than Caggiula. What are we complaining about?

    Should we glue Puljujarvi to McDavid so that we can artificially raise his next contract through the roof?

    No. Just stop playing shitty players.

  169. Wilde says:

    The difference between deploying JP with 97 or not is going to end up with a difference of ~10 points on the season. 30 to 40.

    Not anywhere near contract inflating.

  170. Bling says:

    Pouzar: No. Just stop playing shitty players.

    *Hug*

  171. Bank Shot says:

    Bling: TOI/game for JP this season is 13:54, versus 13:48 for DC (this is total TOI).

    However, look at the TOI for the last 3 games (JP, DC):

    (8:22, 14:54)
    (9:45, 14:55)
    (13:55, 15:48)

    Drake’s average TOI in February: 14:34
    JP’s average TOI in February: 12:54

    JP was producing at a high-end second line/low-end first line rate as a 19 year old, and so McLellan responds by cutting his ice-time to that of a 4th liner?

    Drake has produced like a low-end 4th liner for two seasons, so he gets the ice-time of a 2nd liner?

    In terms of artificially raising JP’s next contract, I think such talk is premature and framing this debate in a very negative way. Why not put a player who has performed exceedingly well in limited minutes in a position to succeed? If he succeeds in such a scenario, on what planet is that a bad thing?

    He should not ride shot-gun with McDavid or Draisaitl because he is a former 4th overall pick; he should do so because he is already one of the best wingers on the team and because doing so will help us win games right now.

    DC gets PK time so that’s why his average icetime is higher.

    JP has 4 points in his last 20 games and 3 of them were in one game against Vancouver.

    He’s also been taking a bunch of bonehead penalties lately.

    JP hasn’t performed that well by any objective measure.

    Maybe I’m just not seeing something that you are, but JP has been pretty meh for me for awhile.

  172. Bank Shot says:

    Pouzar: No. Just stop playing shitty players.

    Caggiula is 10th on the team in ES Icetime for forwards.

    The anger at him is pretty offbase.

    He isn’t any shitter than most of the other wingers the OIlers have at the moment.

  173. Pouzar says:

    Bling: *Hug*

    In 113 min Caggiula is 40.55 CF% with Connor McDavid.
    I didn’t know that was humanly possible.
    I dunno who I want to fire to the sun first…Caggs or TMc.

  174. JimmyV1965 says:

    Bank Shot:
    After the 2020 work stoppage all teams will get 1-2 get out of jail free compliance buyouts. It’s pretty much a fixture in these negotiations now.

    So don’t worry.

    I only suggested Grabner because he probably comes cheap. Like 1-2 years at $2.5 million.

    He’s more a of third line option. I don’t think GM’s will throw money at him. He hasn’t been highly sought after in his career. Too inconsistent I suppose.

    Grabner at $4 million X 5 years would be a real Mact move though. I think Chiarelli isn’t that bad when it comes to contracts.

    I’ll be shocked if Grabner gets only $2.5 x 2. It’ll be closer to $4 x 4.

  175. Bling says:

    Bank Shot: DC gets PK time so that’s why his average icetime is higher.

    JP has 4 points in his last 20 games and 3 of them were in one game against Vancouver.

    He’s also been taking a bunch of bonehead penalties lately.

    JP hasn’t performed that well by any objective measure.

    Maybe I’m just not seeing something that you are, but JP has been pretty meh for me for awhile.

    Milan Lucic has 4 points in 20 games and 2 of them were in one game against Vancouver.

    He’s also been taking a lot of boneheaded penalties lately (14 PIM versus 10 PIM for JP in the same stretch).

    Lucic hasn’t performed that well by any measure.

    Maybe I’m just not seeing something that you are, but Lucic has been pretty meh for me for awhile.

  176. Bling says:

    Keep in mind, that JP has done what he’s done with a rotating cast of 3rd and 4th liners as a 19 year old, while Lucic has done what he’s done with significantly more TOI playing with Draisaitl, probably one of the best passing centres in the world.

  177. OriginalPouzar says:

    Coach said this morning that he believes Puljijarvi is a bit tired the last little while which is part of the reason why his ice time has been scaled back.

  178. thehop says:

    Material pocession: Okay I’ll take that bet (season ending injury notwithstanding).

    Shit I thought I had you there.

    Deal though.

    At least I have something to look forward to as the season winds down.

  179. Bank Shot says:

    Bling:
    Keep in mind, that JP has done what he’s done with a rotating cast of 3rd and 4th liners as a 19 year old, while Lucic has done what he’s done with significantly more TOI playing with Draisaitl, probably one of the best passing centres in the world.

    Lucic has a long history of success in the NHL. JP does not.

    It just makes sense that Lucic would get more rope.

    JP has done nothing much thus far besides being picked 4th overall.

    I hope he succeeds but I don’t think its up to the coach to coddle him.

    Todd has a long history of giving rookies icetime. Just look at his track record in SJ.

    I dont beleive he is biased against JP due to youth.

  180. Wilde says:

    Bank Shot: Caggiula is 10th on the team in ES Icetime for forwards.

    The anger at him is pretty offbase.

    He isn’t any shitter than most of the other wingers the OIlers have at the moment.

    Is it off-base?

    Is he not shitter than most of our wingers?

    Caggiula has been the worst forward on this team and one of the worst regular NHLers in the league.

    2nd worst in shots relative to team, 2nd worst in unblocked shots, 2nd worst in shots on goal, all while playing more time with the biggest driver on the team(97) more than he’s played with the biggest drag(55).

    All of the other players in the bottom cluster have played almost no time with 97 and ample time with 55.

    You can say they threw him to the wolves in deployment, but they did that with every rookie/sophomore winger this season, and every other winger has had better results in the same situations as him.

    Fans have every right to question the continued favours paid to him by the coaching staff.

  181. Pescador says:

    OriginalPouzar:
    Coach said this morning that he believes Puljijarvi is a bit tired the last little while which is part of the reason why his ice time has been scaled back.

    That’s just swell
    Now what the F am I supposed to be outraged about?

  182. Pescador says:

    Bank Shot: Caggiula is 10th on the team in ES Icetime for forwards.

    The anger at him is pretty offbase.

    He isn’t any shitter than most of the other wingers the OIlers have at the moment.

    Nobody is angry at him per say,
    more like angry about him, playing to many mins & not producing
    Plus, I don’t like the cut of his jib

  183. Wilde says:

    Friedman wrote today that Hoffman to Winnipeg talks were stifled by Hoffman having them on his 10-team NT list.

    Chances Edmonton’s on it too?

  184. Gayfish says:

    Pescador: Nobody is angry at him per say,
    more like angry about him, playing to many mins & not producing
    Plus, I don’t like the cut of his jib

    I’m angry at him. I’m more mad that the team had him penciled in above 3rd line, but I’m mad at him that he isn’t an NHL player. Though I guess that’s a little like being mad at someone for acting stupid when they are stupid.

  185. Pouzar says:

    Wilde:
    Friedman wrote today that Hoffman to Winnipeg talks were stifled by Hoffman having them on his 10-team NT list.

    Chances Edmonton’s on it too?

    Maroon for Lemieux…book it!

  186. OriginalPouzar says:

    Go Oilers!

  187. OriginalPouzar says:

    Pouzar: Maroon for Lemieux…book it!

    Please!

  188. Munny says:

    GOilers!!

    *clap clap*

  189. OriginalPouzar says:

    Will be interesting to see if Yamamoto will be able to keep his offence going against the nearly unbeatable Carter Hart!

  190. Wilde says:

    OriginalPouzar:
    Will be interesting to see if Yamamoto will be able to keep his offence going against the nearly unbeatable Carter Hart!

    I’ll be watching the Spokane-Everett game tonight

  191. Munny says:

    First shot, whew.

  192. OriginalPouzar says:

    FIrst shot on net – save!

  193. OriginalPouzar says:

    Wilde: I’ll be watching the Spokane-Everett game tonight

    Cool – intermission updates would be appreciated!

  194. OriginalPouzar says:

    Second shot – save!

  195. Munny says:

    Second shot saved… that’s the hump, isn’t it?

  196. Bank Shot says:

    Wilde: Is it off-base?

    Is he not shitter than most of our wingers?

    Caggiula has been the worst forward on this team and one of the worst regular NHLers in the league.

    2nd worst in shots relative to team, 2nd worst in unblocked shots, 2nd worst in shots on goal, all while playing more time with the biggest driver on the team(97) more than he’s played with the biggest drag(55).

    All of the other players in the bottom cluster have played almost no time with 97 and ample time with 55.

    You can say they threw him to the wolves in deployment, but they did that with every rookie/sophomore winger this season, and every other winger has had better results in the same situations as him.

    Fans have every right to question the continued favours paid to him by the coaching staff.

    Well if shots were the only measure of an NHL player then I guess you have a point.

    Perhaps he should just shoot the puck when he gets over the blueline and have a 6% shooting percentage like Magbus Paajarvi.

  197. OriginalPouzar says:

    Would love to see both Maroon and Puljijarvi have plus games – in addition to Talbot.

  198. OriginalPouzar says:

    Great shift there by Khaira and Strome (and Slep).

    Love the aggressive speed in the offensive zone.

  199. Munny says:

    Pretty hard-fought, tightly-checked opening 5.

  200. Munny says:

    Brilliant pass by Drai gives Rusty a great look, hits iron.

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